Podcast appearances and mentions of Blair Hull

I sat down with Petra Bakosova, portfolio manager at Hull Tactical to explore algorithmic trading and math-driven investing. Petra's insights were sharp and accessible. Petra's a math whiz. She studied applied mathematics in Bratislava, Slovakia and financial mathematics at the University of Chicago. Finance, not teaching, became her passion. She joined Hull Tactical, founded by blackjack legend Blair Hull, to manage the HTUS ETF. This fund uses algorithms to time the S&P 500, not pick stocks.Blog post available at: https://www.sharesforbeginners.com/blog/bakosova-hullPortfolio tracker Sharesight tracks your trades, shows your true performance, and saves you time and money at tax time. Sharesight automatically tracks price, performance and dividends from 240,000+ global stocks, crypto, ETFs and funds. Add cash accounts and property to get the full picture of your portfolio – all in one place. Get 4 months free at https://www.sharesight.com/sharesforbeginnersTony Kynaston is a multi-millionaire professional investor thanks to his QAV checklist. Tony's knowledge and calm analysis takes the guesswork out of share market investing. Use the coupon code SFB for a 20% discount on QAV Club plans or SFBLIGHT for a free month of QAV Light. Here's the link to sign up: https://qavpodcast.com.au/register-3/Disclosure: The links provided are affiliate links. I will be paid a commission if you use this link to make a purchase. You will receive a discount by using these links/coupon codes. I only recommend products and services that I use and trust myself or where I have interviewed and/or met the founders and have assured myself that they're offering something of value.Shares for Beginners is a production of Finpods Pty Ltd. The advice shared on Shares for Beginners is general in nature and does not consider your individual circumstances. Shares for Beginners exists purely for educational and entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to make an investment or financial decision. If you do choose to buy a financial product, read the PDS, TMD and obtain appropriate financial advice tailored towards your needs. Philip Muscatello and Finpods Pty Ltd are authorised representatives of Money Sherpa PTY LTD ABN - 321649 27708, AFSL - 451289. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today Kevin O'Neill joins in talking on the latest political news and a dash of talk on gambling. For our second hour, we are joined by Greg Pappas and special guest Petra Bakosova, who shares the story of Blair Hull's experiences using mathematics to dominate blackjack and eventually the market and shares her experiences developing […]

The hosts of this podcast are not investors with HTAA and were not directly compensated for their views; however, HTAA sponsored this podcast. The hosts and sponsor share a conflict of interest because the sponsor paid a one-time cash compensation for the content of the podcast and the hosts may be incented to endorse or promote HTAA's investment management services.

Jeff and Rufus sit down with Blair Hull, legendary businessman and philanthropist, to discuss everything from timing the markets to card counting legacy. Presented by Hull Tactical.

Blair Hull was known as the first "BP" or "Big Player". Ken Uston wrote a book called, "The Big Player" after he replaced Blair in that role. Taking what he learned from counting cards Blair moved to a much bigger casino with higher stakes, the options exchange.We discuss three big gambles in Blair's life. In 1987 the markets were all crashing, and Blair walked onto the exchange floor saying to himself that his job was to make a price on both buy or sell. There were only people wanting to sell, and like it or not he had to give them a price, and buy what they were unloading. Second we talk about his decision to run for US Senate, and was beat in the primary by a young organizer named Barak Obama. Last we talk about how Blair came out of retirement when he saw that people were buying options as if they were lottery tickets.You can reach me at lifeisagamblepod@gmail.com, or find me on Twitter @RWM21 or @lifeisagamblepod on Threads. If you like the show please tell a friend you think might like it, or if you are really ambitious leave a review wherever you listen.LinksHull Tactical Asset Allocation http://www.hulltactical.com/Twitter - @blairhullThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5604745/advertisement

You almost certainly know that, for decades, Stu Rothenberg and his Rothenberg Political Report (now Inside Elections) penned among the most influential political analysis in Washington. But you probably don't know the origin story...his initial academic career track, how he cut his political teeth at the conservative Heritage Foundation, and what led to launching his own newsletter. In this conversation, we talk through all of that plus his most memorable interactions with candidates, biggest surprises, savviest politicians, and when he knew it was time to pass the newsletter baton to his partner Nathan Gonzales. IN THIS EPISODEStu grows up in a family of Rockefeller Republicans in Central Park West Manhattan…Stu's growing interest in politics and initial career trajectory to become an academic…How Stu's path diverted from the academic track to join the political operation of the conservative Heritage Foundation…Stu's tutelage under conservative political icon Paul Weyrich…What led to launching the Rothenberg Report newsletter…Stu's early intersection with fellow newsletter groundbreaker Charlie Cook…Stu's memories from “candidate interviews” with Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, and Barack Obama…Stu on the single biggest surprising result in his decades as a political observer…Stu talks some of the smartest political minds in Congress & the one committee chair who was a “giant pain in the ass”…The backstory behind a favorite Rothenberg column “For the Thousandth Time, Don't Call It a Push Poll”…Stu's memorable 2006 meeting with then-Vice President Dick Cheney…How Stu handled passing the torch of the Rothenberg Report to Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales…AND The Almanac of American Politics, Morton Blackwell, Bill Bradley, Sherry Boehlert, Mary Bono, Sonny Bono, William Buckley, Bucknell University, CNN, CSX, Canadian-American regional integration, the Club for Growth, Colby College, complicated conservatives, Ted Cruz, Al D'Amato, Mitch Daniels, Tom Davis, David Dewhurst, egomaniacs, Rollie Fingers, Charles Franklin, the Free Congress Research and Education Foundation, Mark French, Milton Friedman, Martin Frost, The Greenbrier, Nikki Haley, Tom Harkin, Peter Hart, Friedrich Hayek, Blair Hull, “It's Only Politics”, Jan Plans, Jacob Javits, Roger Jepsen, Tommy John, Ben Jones, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Kenneth Keating, Harmon Killebrew, Leading Authorities, Louis Lefkowitz, Jon Lerner, John Lindsay, Juan Marichal, Marxist feminists, John McCain, Joe McLean, Ed Muskie, NYU, Lindsey Nelson, Frank Newport, Richard Nixon, George Pataki, political goo, Walter Rich, Roll Call, Jack Ryan, Larry Sabato, sewage trolls, Casey Stengel, Inez Tenenbaum, total losers, Donald Trump, UCONN, Amy Walter…& more!

Our guests this week are Max Rubin, and Darryl Purpose. This episode is about the 2022 Blackjack Ball.We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge. Show Notes[00:00] Introduction of Max Rubin and Darryl Purpose[00:56] How was this year's Blackjack Ball different?[02:32] The Blackjack Ball 501c3[05:43] Organizing the Blackjack Ball and logistics[07:35] Blair Hull receives the Ed Thorp Lifetime Achievement Award[11:00] Test questions[17:47] Cleveland Clinic Lou Ruvo Center for Brain Health[19:46] Guessing states with tribal casinos[25:28] http://SouthPointCasino.com[26:19] http://BlackjackApprenticeship.com[27:00] http://VideoPoker.com/gwae[28:15] http://Unabated.com[28:56] Skills test at the final table[31:39] Estimating the number of cards in the discard rack[34:46] Cutting a card to the dealer[37:08] Hole card strategy[40:08] Memorization of cards, counting down a deck[45:46] Indoor and outdoor areas[46:43] Jason England[49:03] Darryl's plans for champagne[53:58] Recommended: Mint Mobile, Walter Tevis science fiction books, "Eddie and Jules" by Darry Purpose, Breath by James Nestor, BlackjackReview.comSponsored Links:http://SouthPointCasino.comhttp://BlackjackApprenticeship.comhttp://VideoPoker.com/gwaehttp://Unabated.comRecommended: http://Mintmobile.com"Eddie and Jules" by Darry Purpose https://soundcloud.com/lance-cowan-1/eddie-julesBreath by James Nestor - https://amzn.to/3e6snNjhttp://BlackjackReview.com

Blair Hull went from beating casinos at blackjack to starting up his own Wall Street firm. They went from one employee to operating on stock exchanges around the world. Blair eventually sold the company to Goldman Sachs for over $500 million dollars. In this episode we'll cover Blair's amazing story and some great takeaways from it. I want to thank Aaron from the Chat With Traders podcast for letting me use parts of his Blair Hull interview for this episode. You can check out Aaron's podcast here: https://chatwithtraders.com/ Blair Hull audio: https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-085-blair-hull/ Music: https://pixabay.com/ Sources: https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-085-blair-hull/ https://www.amazon.com/New-Market-Wizards-Conversations-Americas/dp/0887306675 https://web.archive.org/web/20120109010146/http://www.sfomag.com/ArticlePrint.aspx?ID=1343 https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1999-07-13-9907130269-story.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB882224069197194500 https://www.fastcompany.com/28597/risky-business-sound-thinking Podcast website: Wall Street Vision Investing Podcast Get in touch with Vlad: Wall Street Vision - Contact Disclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. I may maintain positions in the securities discussed on this podcast. This show is copyrighted by the Wall Street Vision, written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

Blair Hull played on the original Big Player blackjack team in the 1970s. He played with Al Francesco, Ken Uston, and ran into other pioneers of the game including Keith Taft. The Francesco teams were the subject of the book "The Big Player". After blackjack Blair moved into the financial markets where he used his proprietary options strategies to turn $25,000 into millions. Blair talks about his life searching for edges, and the lessons he learned.Links: Hull Tactical ETFEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow on Twitter: @halfkellyThe Big Player on Amazon

Jack Schwager on the worlds greatest unknown traders.An interview with Jack Schwager, the author of The Market Wizards series of books, on his new book, Unknown Market Wizards. Jack has been involved in financial markets for over 45 years, he worked as a market analyst, a trader, managed institutional portfolios of managed accounts, and has written extensively on the futures industry.  He is most famous for his Market Wizards series of books, interviews with great traders in all financial markets. He has just released the newest installment of that series Unknown Market Wizards, which I reviewed in my Top Ten Books for Traders list earlier this week.  Schwager has interviewed Bruce Kovner, David Shaw, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, Michael Steinhardt, William O'Neill, William Eckhardt, Monroe Trout, Stanley Druckenmiller, Mark Ritchie, Blair Hull, Larry Hite, Jim Rogers, Edward Thorp, Richard Dennis, and many more of the worlds most famous and highest returning traders.Patrick Boyle asks Jack about the characteristics these great traders have in common, what it takes to be a great trader, and what kind of returns do market wizards make in the long run. They discuss the efficient markets hypothesis, risk management, and how markets change over time.Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceUnknown Market Wizards by Jack Schwager:  https://amzn.to/3om6SHJJack Schwager Author Page on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3mBTq1LJack's Website: https://jackschwager.com/Patrick's Books:Statistics for the Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives for the Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Visit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleFind Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceSupport the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)

Thomas Peterffy, Chairman and Founder of Interactive Brokers Group, Inc and Blair Hull, Founder, Hull Trading Company  talk about where it all began and more.

Thomas Peterffy, Chairman and Founder of Interactive Brokers Group, Inc and Blair Hull, Founder, Hull Trading Company  talk about where it all began and more.

Blair Hull has been ahead of the trading curve for more than 30 years. He was automating strategies and market making before it was popular. In fact, he thought that computers would replace floor traders in the 1980s - more than 20 years before it did. During his storied career, he's kept one thing consistent: he always knew his edge and is always learning. His thirst for knowledge helped him solve the game of Blackjack and now has him tackling issues in markets with Hull Tactical Funds. You simply cannot miss this episode.

In Episode 89, we welcome legendary market veteran, Blair Hull. We start per usual, with our guest’s background. In this case, long-time Meb Faber Show listeners may think they’ve heard it before. That’s because Blair’s background shares an interesting similarity with that of Ed Thorp – the card game, Blackjack. It turns out Blair made a considerable sum of money playing Blackjack after reading Ed’s writings on the game. Blair tells us you needed an advantage, and then you need to stay in the game. That’s why he played with a team. More hands played according to their system tilted the odds in his favor. This is a fun part of the podcast you’ll want to listen to for all the details, including Meb’s foray into card counting with a partner that botched the system after drinking too many Bloody Mary’s. Eventually, Blair took his winnings and used them to get a seat on the Pacific Exchange, where he became a market maker and began trading options. Blair tells us he was intrigued with market timing, resulting in a paper he wrote which concluded that you can time the market. Meb asks about the genesis of Blair’s market timing strategies. Blair points back to Blackjack – each different card provides an idea about the future. In a similar way, various indicators provide an idea about a market’s future. So, part of the challenge is which indicators do you consider and what weights do you put on them? Next, Meb digs deeper, asking for more specifics of Blair’s strategy, inquiring about the indicators. Blair mentions one indicator that piqued his interest – the Federal Reserve Bank Loan Officer Survey. They found the correlations with 6-month returns was about 30%, which is a fairly high correlation for an indicator. He then took this indicator and combined it with a few others and ran a regression with no forward-looking bias to see if they could exceed the returns of the S&P. What were the results? You’ll have to listen. The conversation bounces around a bit before Blair mentions how valuation is one of their key variables. He tells us his valuation method combines three different aspects: CAPE, cyclically adjusted dividend yield including buybacks, and book-to-price. The guys spend a while discussing the various inputs in Blair’s model before discussing sentiment (which Meb calls “squishy). Both guys like sentiment, with Blair even having invested in two different firms that are using Twitter feeds so he can get a better handle on sentiment. Next, Meb asks about AI, and how machines may affect investing going forward. Blair has a proprietary trading firm that operates on a high frequency basis, so he gives us his thoughts, noting that a key to maximizing wealth is to use an optimal-sized bet. Meb changes direction, asking what Blair is excited about today. It turns out Blair is focusing on the stigma of market timing. He believes it will be irresponsible not to be involved in market timing over the next 30 years. That’s because when we have correlations that really go to “1” when we have a disaster, getting an edge in the market is critical.   There are a couple quick questions – Blair’s favorite indicator, and Blair’s advice to young quants looking to get into quant finance today, but then we turn to Blair’s most memorable trade. This is a great one involving the crash in ’87, when Blair was a market maker. Don’t miss it.   There’s plenty more in this great episode featuring a true market legend, including why Blair tells us “Emotions will kill you in this game.” That and far more in Episode 89.

Occasionally big issues, like sexual abuse, are tackled through fiction - all the better when enhanced through an alternative detective approach. In St. Mary's Private Dancer, Blair Hull explores the underworld of sex work in a murder mystery, and in Quaker Witness the issues are sexual harassment, rape, & murder, written by E. Kirsten Peters under the pen-name Irene Allen. Kirsten's Ph.D.

Xiao Qiao is a research analyst for a Connecticut-based hedge fund, focused on trading commodity futures. He graduated with a PhD in Finance—and was a teaching assistant to renown economist Eugene Fama. Notably, Xiao has also worked directly with trading legend Blair Hull on two quantitative research projects, which concern market timing and return predictability. The main objective of this episode with Xiao, is to learn how a research analyst thinks about things directly related to research, and ways that you can do better market research for yourself. On top of this, Xiao, based on his experience, shares a few tips for those who have an urge to study something—but are unsure about what to study, and some of the differences he's observed between the world of academia and working as a practitioner.

On Monday October 19th, 1987, the Dow Jones fell 508 points in a one day crash that will forever be known as "Black Monday". In honor of the 30th anniversary, Joe and Tracy talk to Blair Hull, managing partner of Hull Trading Co., who was actively trading that day. While everyone else panicked, Hull spotted an opportunity and won big in the chaos. On this episode, we talk about how he was able to keep his head above water and what lessons that day holds for markets today.

Dr. William Ziemba’s an academic, a practitioner, gambler, trader and an author. He’s worked with and consulted to many well-respected names in the field, such as; Edward Thorp, Blair Hull and the very successful horse bettor, Bill Benter. In the beginning, horse betting was William’s field of expertise (he even published a book titled, Beat The Racetrack!) And in many ways, for William, horse betting worked as a gateway to trading financial markets—which he’s been doing since 1983. Now in current times, William manages a fund; Alpha Z Advisors—which started trading in July 2013 and as of May 2017, has returned 527%. Much of William's trading revolves around calendar anomalies, arbitrage strategies and behavioral biases. We spend a good amount of time discussing these few things, plus William shares one anomaly he's been trading for many years. In the later part of this episode, we also talk about position sizing, the Kelly Criterion and finally, horse racing.

Gina McFadden was President of The Options Industry Council (OIC) from 2006 to 2013. She was OIC's Executive Director from 1995 to 2006. Concurrent with her OIC position, she was also a member of The Options Clearing Corporation's (OCC) senior management team, serving as Executive Vice President of Industry Services. Prior to that, she was Executive Vice President of OCC's Business Operations Group and Business/Product Development. Active on various industry committees and organizations including OIC's Roundtable, OCC's Operations Roundtable, SIFMA's Equity Options Roundtable, the STA Options Committee and the Futures Industry Association, she was also an inaugural board member of Women in Listed Derivatives (WILD), a professional development group for women. Gina completed the Kellogg Management Institute Graduate Program at Northwestern University and SIA's Securities Institute Program at the Wharton School. She has a B.A. from Barat College. After almost forty years in the options industry, Gina retired in 2013. She lives with her husband Marty in Chicago and Boca Grande, Florida, where she is on the board of the Boca Grande Art Center and active in other community and educational organizations. The Sullivan Awards named for Joseph W. Sullivan to recognize outstanding contributions in the options industry. Mr. Sullivan provided the vision and leadership to make listed options a reality and played a key role in the development of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, serving as its first president from 1972 until 1979. The Sullivan Award was established in 2002 by the Options Industry Council and has become a regular feature of the Options Industry Conference program. The award acknowledges an individual's achievement as measured by contributions to education, innovation and product development, and in helping to grow the industry. Gina McFadden, a long-time leader in the U.S. listed equity options industry, will be the first woman to receive the award. The past Sullivan Award recipients have been Joseph Sullivan himself, Wayne P. Luthringshausen, Paul G. Stevens, Jr., Ivers W. Riley, Thomas Peterffy, Jeffery S. Yass, David Krell, William J. Brodsky, William A. Porter, Lawrence G. McMillan, Edward J. Joyce, Meyer Sandy Frucher, Blair Hull and Robert E. Whaley.

Gina McFadden was President of The Options Industry Council (OIC) from 2006 to 2013. She was OIC's Executive Director from 1995 to 2006. Concurrent with her OIC position, she was also a member of The Options Clearing Corporation's (OCC) senior management team, serving as Executive Vice President of Industry Services. Prior to that, she was Executive Vice President of OCC's Business Operations Group and Business/Product Development. Active on various industry committees and organizations including OIC's Roundtable, OCC's Operations Roundtable, SIFMA's Equity Options Roundtable, the STA Options Committee and the Futures Industry Association, she was also an inaugural board member of Women in Listed Derivatives (WILD), a professional development group for women. Gina completed the Kellogg Management Institute Graduate Program at Northwestern University and SIA’s Securities Institute Program at the Wharton School. She has a B.A. from Barat College. After almost forty years in the options industry, Gina retired in 2013. She lives with her husband Marty in Chicago and Boca Grande, Florida, where she is on the board of the Boca Grande Art Center and active in other community and educational organizations. The Sullivan Awards named for Joseph W. Sullivan to recognize outstanding contributions in the options industry. Mr. Sullivan provided the vision and leadership to make listed options a reality and played a key role in the development of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, serving as its first president from 1972 until 1979. The Sullivan Award was established in 2002 by the Options Industry Council and has become a regular feature of the Options Industry Conference program. The award acknowledges an individual’s achievement as measured by contributions to education, innovation and product development, and in helping to grow the industry. Gina McFadden, a long-time leader in the U.S. listed equity options industry, will be the first woman to receive the award. The past Sullivan Award recipients have been Joseph Sullivan himself, Wayne P. Luthringshausen, Paul G. Stevens, Jr., Ivers W. Riley, Thomas Peterffy, Jeffery S. Yass, David Krell, William J. Brodsky, William A. Porter, Lawrence G. McMillan, Edward J. Joyce, Meyer Sandy Frucher, Blair Hull and Robert E. Whaley.

Jorge Soltero began as a floor trader in Chicago, where he was an options market maker. A few years into his career, he landed a position at Hull Trading Company (the renowned firm of legendary trader, Blair Hull). After Hull Trading was bought by Goldman Sachs in 1999, Jorge became more of an institutional trader—not only working at Goldman, but later, UBS and Merrill Lynch too, where he specialized in options and ETFs. Listening to this episode you’re going to hear about; the culture of trading pits, exactly what it was like to be a trader at Hull Trading Co., the transition to electronic trading, what makes ETFs an attractive product, and more… -- Sponsored by Gemini.com: The first fully regulated Bitcoin exchange, for traders and investors. Register for one-month of FREE trading.

Today marks the kick-off edition of Mind Over Money, the only podcast that exposes the psychology of investing. I’m Kevin Cook, your field-guide and story-teller for the fascinating arena known as behavioral economics, which includes the sub-field behavioral finance and also draws in the related research from neuroscience, where brain imaging “sheds light,” if you’ll pardon the pun, on how we make decisions about money, uncertainty, and risk.   Jason Zweig described these merging fields in his 2007 book Your Money & Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich.   Zweig, as you may know, wrote for Money magazine for years and was the editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. He now writes for the WSJ. So he wasn’t just a journalist describing an investing fad. He’s schooled in classical investing methods and knew he was on to something of enduring importance when he either coined, or at least put on the map, the term “neuroeconomics.”   He opens his book, which I consider must-reading for all students of the market, this way…   “How could I have been such an idiot?” If you’ve never yelled that sentence at yourself in a fury, you’re not an investor. There may be nothing across the entire spectrum of human endeavor that makes so many smart people feel so stupid as investing does.   But actually, I didn’t discover Jason’s book until about 5 years ago. And I had been working on the same ideas as him prior to the financial crisis. In fact, I published part of my thesis that “Your Brain Wasn’t Made to Trade” in 2008 in an industry magazine called SFO, which stood for Stocks, Futures, and Options.   My objective with Mind Over Money is to inspire you to be nearly as interested in behavioral economics, behavioral finance, and neuroscience as Mr. Zweig and I both are. And of course, we both give you plenty of other experts and resources to aid in that endeavor. That’s because so many great and dedicated researchers came before us and created the invaluable insights of these fields.   My unique contribution is that before I discovered behavioral finance or became passionately interested in brain science, I was studying great traders and terrible traders, through their successes and their failures, on the trading floors of Chicago since the mid-1990s.   This Is Your Brain on Risk   There are a lot of forces and players on Wall Street that can separate you from your money. But our greatest financial enemy is often ourselves.   Three great areas of study give us insight about this self-sabotage: behavioral finance, neuroscience, and the collective wisdom of great investors and traders who discovered through hard-won experience what those two sciences now teach us.   When we study these areas, we can become more aware and better equipped to spot how our own minds and habits either get in the way or help us make better decisions when it comes to money, uncertainty, and risk.   One group of researchers studies people from the outside-in, the behavioral finance group, who owe much to the ground-breaking work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the 1970s.   The other group, the neuroscientists, studies our behavior from the inside-out, as they pinpoint what brain structures and functions are involved in different types of decisions and responses.   What happens when our minds meet markets has been a passionate area of interest for me for over 20 years, ever since I first walked on the trading floors of Chicago and watched the good, the bad, and the ugly among professional speculators.   So how did I come to the conclusion that “your brain wasn’t made to trade?” It’s a bold statement. But once I show you the evidence behind it, I bet you will agree.   The Era of Rogues and Geniuses   In 1995, when my trading career was first getting started, the oldest bank in the world collapsed because of the rogue actions of one employee. Founded in 1762, Barings Bank was wiped out by trader Nick Leeson who was taking on exceptionally large trades – and losses – in Japan’s Nikkei futures market.   And he was able to hide them for a time until the risk managers finally woke up and started to notice that accounts were not balancing.   At the time, it seemed people everywhere – from journalists and regulators to traders, bankers, and the man or woman on the street – were all shocked that something like this could happen.   I started tracking stories like this, especially as they seemed to be occurring more often. In 1998, we saw the biggest hedge fund failure ever – up to that time. It is dwarfed by comparison since then.   Long-Term Capital Management had to be bailed out by 16 Wall Street investment banks, in a campaign orchestrated by the Greenspan-led Federal Reserve, because their losses in interest rate sensitive markets around the globe were viewed as threatening to financial markets.   The bailout at over $3.5 billion is considered paltry by today’s “too big to fail” standards. But the truly notable dynamic was that the fund was run by some of the smartest minds on Wall Street, like Myron Scholes who had just won a Nobel prize in Economics the year before.   I also kept track of the big blow-outs I witnessed in the trading pits in Chicago. New floor traders would always come and go on a regular basis. But the surprises came when a 20-year veteran would suddenly vanish because he took exceptional risk that went way wrong and wiped out a multi-million dollar account.   Rogues, Gamblers, and Wizards: What can we learn from them?   As I watched the rogues and the blowouts, I also read about the great traders. Jack Schwager’s books about the Market Wizards are really required reading for anyone who wants to become a full-time trader. They are in-depth interviews with big successes like George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Michael Steinhardt, and options wizards like Blair Hull.   As I read these dozens of interviews across 3 of Schwager’s books, I found six themes all these great traders and investors had in common. I’m going to list them for you because even before I had ever heard of behavioral finance or became interested in brain science, these “street-smart” winners had cornered the market on the principles of being in command of their own minds and trading behavior:   1.    Psychology: emotional decision-making was a paramount discovery 2.    Discipline: having lost big without them, rules became lifesavers 3.    Risk Management: the “golden rule” is to cut losses quickly and let winners run 4.    Probability: repeatable methods & mechanics of risk/reward evaluation 5.    Consistency: steady compounding was better than windfalls and wipeouts 6.    Systems: putting the first 5 together in routines of planning & preparation When I became a professional currency trader in 1999 upon the introduction of the euro, I noticed that even bank traders were an emotional and irrational bunch. As I studied the two sciences, I concluded that our brains were “hard-wired” to break the “golden rule” of trading.   In other words, our fear-driven, excitable, and emotional brains preferred (1) to avoid losses at all costs (so we would only take them when it was almost too late) and (2) to take gains quickly. This irrational and upside-down approach to risk/ and reward was the mathematical road to insolvency.   So I started researching how to train “trader brains” and I developed a probability simulation called Masters of PROP: Probability, Risk, and Optimal Profit. That trader training never goes out of date because its subject material, human brains, remain irrational, decade after decade.   Is It All Just About Greed?   So if the Market Wizards principles of the world’s best traders and investors worked so universally, what were the rogue traders and reckless fund managers doing – just the opposite?   Well, it’s a little more complicated than that. Because while there might be a half-dozen ways to do things right, there are many dozens, if not hundreds, of ways to make our money go away.   What always gets highlighted with rogues and “geniuses” that fail is that they were just greedy. But as I put together my thesis that “Your Brain Wasn’t Made to Trade” in the early 2000s, I came up with 3 more distinct and important drivers of financial bad behavior…   #1: Ego and the desire to be seen as “the great trader.” This was evident in so many of the rogue trader stories, like John Rusnak accumulating $700 million in losses for Allied Irish bank between 1997 and 2002.   #2: Irrational or immature beliefs about money, success, self-worth, and happiness such as “I deserve it!” or “This needs to happen now!” or “Once I win this back, I’ll make everything right again.” This kind of stuff tends toward either unconscious or full-blown narcissism with lots of emotional immaturity in between.   #3: Ignorance or lack of skill with probability   The primary reason I think we gain so much from studying rogues and other reckless gamblers is because what the rogue does to a billion dollars of other people’s money, we can do to our own accounts if we are not aware of our mental habits and cognitive biases as they impact our decision-making with money and risk.   And here, I have a confession to make.   While I could be as guilty as any investor-trader of any of these faults, the one I knew I had to immediately do something about was Probability. As a trading floor clerk in the late 1990s, I realized I had to make up for my lack of understanding and skill with probability.   And since equations were not my favorite things in high school or college, I found that the stories of how probability was invented and how it was used – in the options markets, in Vegas, in sports, and in weather modeling – pulled me in and gave me a practical way to learn the math I needed to know.   I must have read the stories of how Pascal and Fermat invented modern probability theory in the 1650s a dozen times before it started to sink in and I could make sense of all the equations that came after.   But you’re probably still wondering where I get the nerve to say Your Brain Wasn’t Made to Trade?   It’s all in this week’s podcast.   And be sure to check out my weekly video where I expose the psychology of investing with behavioral and cognitive biases. My most recent gives a great example of mental accounting.

Dave Lauer is a former-high frequency trader for firms such as Citadel and Allston Trading. He’s worked specifically in various areas of the HFT pipeline, including; research and modelling, building hardware, and programming and operating strategies—which are measured in millionths of a second (or microseconds). Following the Flash Crash, Dave left his role as a trader (for various reasons we discuss during this episode) and now, as a partner of KOR Group, consults to institutional managers on market structure and best execution. Dave was also featured in the VPRO documentary, The Wall Street Code, along with other Chat With Traders guests; Haim Bodek, Eric Hunsader, and Blair Hull. -- Sponsored by TechnicianApp.com: Chart, analyze, and trade from anywhere with Technician’s award-winning app—for mobile, tablet, and desktop. Learn more and sign up for free!

Blair Hull has been labeled by Forbes as, “One of the most successful traders of the last 40 years,” and he was also profiled in Jack Schwager’s, The New Market Wizards. Prior to trading, Blair was a serious Blackjack player for 5-years during the 70’s. From there he took his winnings to the the Pacific Exchange to trade mispriced options, and in 1985, he founded one of the world’s premier market-making firms, Hull Trading. At its peak, Hull Trading was active on 28 exchanges in nine countries. Then in 1999, the firm was acquired by Goldman Sachs for $531 million dollars. Today, Blair is the founder of Hull Investments—the parent company of an actively managed ETF, Hull Trading Asset Allocation, and proprietary firm, Ketchum Trading. Listening to this interview, you’re going to hear more about Blair’s career and his observations as a trader, why he believes great things happen in teams, and why everything revolves around having an edge. - - Sponsored by TechnicianApp.com – For professional-grade charts and technical analysis tools everywhere you go, use Technician—it’s FREE!

My guest today is Blair Hull. Hull founded Hull Investments, LLC in 1999 and currently serves as the firm's Chairman. He created Hull Tactical Asset Allocation, LLC, a registered investment advisor, in 2013. HTAA operates an actively managed ETF and utilizes advanced algorithms as well as macro and technical indicators to anticipate future market returns. Prior to launching Hull Tactical Asset Allocation, LLC, he was the founder of Hull Trading Company and served as that firm's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The topics are blackjack and stock trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: The importance of having a strategy and sticking to it Why money management and discipline are key to trading success Objectivity vs. emotions in blackjack and stock trading Choosing the right markers and variables Consumption as a function of income and wealth The future of market prediction and machine learning Jump in!   --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Continuing the theme of speculation and gambling from the previous episode, today’s Trend Following Radio guest is Blair Hull. Hull got his start playing blackjack in Nevada casinos, and later moved onto trading. He founded his investment firm, Hull Investments, in 1999. The company, which leveraged technological innovations and quantitative models, was one of the world’s premier market-making firms, trading on 28 exchanges in nine countries. The parallels in Hull’s approach to gambling and trading are many. He stresses the importance of objectivity and sticking to the system, especially during a losing streak when emotions run high. It’s not only about brain power, it’s about discipline. In this interview, Blair Hull and Michael Covel talk about the parallels between blackjack and stock trading, the importance of money management and discipline when following systems, and the future of trading and market prediction. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: The importance of having a strategy and sticking to it Why money management and discipline are key to trading success Objectivity vs. emotions in blackjack and stock trading Choosing the right markers and variables Consumption as a function of income and wealth The future of market prediction and machine learning Want to get a FREE Trend Following DVD? Find it here: http://www.trendfollowing.com/win

Trading Tech Talk 12:  The Markets Are Out of Sync Hot Topics in Tech: Regulators challenged by clock synchronization. Flash Boys continues to spur debate and some change, though the government will ultimately have to address the stock market's structure. Thomas Peterffy, one of the founding fathers of high-frequency trading, has offered the SEC a plan to keep HFTs from taking advantage of investors. Warren Buffett, business partner Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates slammed HFT on CNBC.  They are no fans of high-frequency trading. Both brokers and investors are testing new ways to cope with the sheer volume of data the stock market produces. Goldman Sachs fined in dark pool debacle. It's not just the U.S. - Bombay Stock Exchange halted by network glitch.     The Inbox: Listener questions and comments Question from Hawkeye - Just wanted to share an observation. You guys have been saying that the HFT latency issues have not hit the options market, but I have been seeing otherwise. A couple weeks ago, I was trying to add some back month Oct slightly OTM VXX puts (-30 delta - they were not THAT far OTM) to add some contango protection to a spread position. The bid asked spread was about .40 cents wide so I split it with my limit order thinking I would have a reasonable chance of getting filled as the market moved around. (I use Tradestation, a direct access broker.). It showed that Tradestation auto-routed my order to the NASDAQ. It sat for a while without being filled, I happened to look at the market depth screen and sure enough, a bunch of other bids from other exchanges were showing with timestamps slightly ahead of my order. I cancelled and all the other bids backed down to where they were before I placed my order. I entered it again, same thing. I cancelled again, they moved back. Then I reentered the same bid, this time I specified it route to BOX, which was the one that went first in the queue the other times. Sure enough, I was first in the queue this time. This is where the retail guy gets screwed. The market makers do not seem to want to make a real market, but they are more than willing to block me from getting filled if someone else were to come in with a bid at my price. The other way we seem to get screwed over when I correctly pick a position and the underlying goes significantly my way, but the market makers decide that they only want to move one side of the spread. I end up looking to get out but the market is bid something stupid like bid 0.75, at 1.50 whereas when I got in when it was bid 0.52 at 0.58. I only trade penny pilot symbols with good option volume. I never buy in front of an implied volatility crush. Yet, this sort of action seems to happen way more often than it should. I just want the damn market makers to make an honest market. They want to be market makers but don't want to make markets. Thoughts? Love the shows. Hawkeye Question from Elsa74 - Hello tech stars. Like the new direction for the network with this program. It's about time someone tackled trading tech on a show and Options Insider Radio Network is a great place to do it. Great guests so far, particularly Blair Hull. That guy has a lot of insight into the markets. I am looking forward to the next guests on the program. Now for my question. It might sound strange but I would like to know if the hosts think trading tech may have gotten too good. The options market is a good example. The recent mergers of brokers like Options House and Trade Monster was driven in many ways by the fact that they need to spend millions to keep their platforms cutting edge and they simply cannot afford it. They need economies of scale to be viable and continue to offer that level of functionality to the consumer. Do you think options customers are hurting ourselves by demanding too much from our brokers and therefore driving them out of the business - depriving ourselves of choice at the end of the day? I personally would much rather have a dozen brokers to choose from with different platforms rather than two or three monoliths controlling the entire business. Thanks again for this insightful program. Any chance we're going to see a weekly TTT going forward? Question from Indigo: You have said on the program several times that dark pools do not exist in the options market. Why is that? Is there some technical limitation preventing dark pools from launching in the options market vs. the equities market?

Trading Tech Talk 12: The Markets Are Out of Sync Hot Topics in Tech: Regulators challenged by clock synchronization. Flash Boys continues to spur debate and some change, though the government will ultimately have to address the stock market's structure. Thomas Peterffy, one of the founding fathers of high-frequency trading, has offered the SEC a plan to keep HFTs from taking advantage of investors. Warren Buffett, business partner Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates slammed HFT on CNBC. They are no fans of high-frequency trading. Both brokers and investors are testing new ways to cope with the sheer volume of data the stock market produces. Goldman Sachs fined in dark pool debacle. It's not just the U.S. - Bombay Stock Exchange halted by network glitch. The Inbox: Listener Questions & Comments Question from Hawkeye -Just wanted to share an observation. You guys have been saying that the HFT latency issues have not hit the options market, but I have been seeing otherwise. A couple weeks ago, I was trying to add some back month Oct slightly OTM VXX puts (-30 delta - they were not THAT far OTM) to add some contango protection to a spread position. The bid asked spread was about .40 cents wide so I split it with my limit order thinking I would have a reasonable chance of getting filled as the market moved around. (I use Tradestation, a direct access broker.). It showed that Tradestation auto-routed my order to the NASDAQ. It sat for a while without being filled, I happened to look at the market depth screen and sure enough, a bunch of other bids from other exchanges were showing with timestamps slightly ahead of my order. I cancelled and all the other bids backed down to where they were before I placed my order. I entered it again, same thing. I cancelled again, they moved back. Then I reentered the same bid, this time I specified it route to BOX, which was the one that went first in the queue the other times. Sure enough, I was first in the queue this time. This is where the retail guy gets screwed. The market makers do not seem to want to make a real market, but they are more than willing to block me from getting filled if someone else were to come in with a bid at my price. The other way we seem to get screwed over when I correctly pick a position and the underlying goes significantly my way, but the market makers decide that they only want to move one side of the spread. I end up looking to get out but the market is bid something stupid like bid 0.75, at 1.50 whereas when I got in when it was bid 0.52 at 0.58. I only trade penny pilot symbols with good option volume. I never buy in front of an implied volatility crush. Yet, this sort of action seems to happen way more often than it should. I just want the damn market makers to make an honest market. They want to be market makers but don't want to make markets. Thoughts? Love the shows. Hawkeye Question from Elsa74 - Hello tech stars. Like the new direction for the network with this program. It's about time someone tackled trading tech on a show and Options Insider Radio Network is a great place to do it. Great guests so far, particularly Blair Hull. That guy has a lot of insight into the markets. I am looking forward to the next guests on the program. Now for my question. It might sound strange but I would like to know if the hosts think trading tech may have gotten too good. The options market is a good example. The recent mergers of brokers like Options House and Trade Monster was driven in many ways by the fact that they need to spend millions to keep their platforms cutting edge and they simply cannot afford it. They need economies of scale to be viable and continue to offer that level of functionality to the consumer. Do you think options customers are hurting ourselves by demanding too much from our brokers and therefore driving them out of the business - depriving ourselves of choice at the end of the day? I personally would much rather have a dozen brokers to choose from with different platforms rather than two or three monoliths controlling the entire business. Thanks again for this insightful program. Any chance we’re going to see a weekly TTT going forward? Question from Indigo: You have said on the program several times that dark pools do not exist in the options market. Why is that? Is there some technical limitation preventing dark pools from launching in the options market vs. the equities market?

Our coverage of the 2014 OIC Conference continues with the presentation of the Joseph W. Sullivan Award to Blair Hull.

Trading Tech Talk 6: Interview with Blair Hull CTO Interview: Our guest on this episode is Blair Hull, Founder of Hull Trading, Founder of Ketchum Trading, and 2014 Sullivan Award recipient. He discusses: The 1987 crash If trading technology leveled the playing field The impact of multiple market centers on trading tech failures If HFT is a detrimental force in the financial markets Hot Topics in Tech: Exchanges are extremely concerned over cyber security. NY Attorney General Erick Schneiderman is looking at the "unfair advantages" high frequency traders have over regular investors. Futures traders embrace algorithms. European asset manager are moving to in-house electronic execution expertise. NASDAQ OMX ramps up technology sales to Asian exchanges. The Inbox: In which the listeners dictate the conversation. Question from Hawkeye - I want to know if HFT firms are allowed to jump to the front of the queue? If so, how is that justified?  Also, if so, why should they not get in back like everybody else? Please give me the justification for this practice. On a similar vein, I know that some platforms allow you to hide the number of actual shares/contracts you have bid/offered, and instead you can show a smaller number so that you do not tip your hand.  Do those remaining orders have to get in the back of the queue? Or are they also given favorable treatment?  Why should they be allowed to lie? Thanks     Looking Ahead: TT is releasing a web-based HTML 5 version of XTrader.  

Trading Tech Talk 6: Interview with Blair Hull CTO Interview: Our guest on this episode is Blair Hull, Founder of Hull Trading, Founder of Ketchum Trading, and 2014 Sullivan Award recipient. He discusses: The 1987 crash If trading technology leveled the playing field The impact of multiple market centers on trading tech failures If HFT is a detrimental force in the financial markets Hot Topics in Tech: Exchanges are extremely concerned over cyber security. NY Attorney General Erick Schneiderman is looking at the "unfair advantages" high frequency traders have over regular investors. Futures traders embrace algorithms. European asset manager are moving to in-house electronic execution expertise. NASDAQ OMX ramps up technology sales to Asian exchanges. The Inbox: In which the listeners dictate the conversation. Question from Hawkeye - I want to know if HFT firms are allowed to jump to the front of the queue? If so, how is that justified? Also, if so, why should they not get in back like everybody else? Please give me the justification for this practice. On a similar vein, I know that some platforms allow you to hide the number of actual shares/contracts you have bid/offered, and instead you can show a smaller number so that you do not tip your hand. Do those remaining orders have to get in the back of the queue? Or are they also given favorable treatment? Why should they be allowed to lie? Thanks Looking Ahead: TT is releasing a web-based HTML 5 version of XTrader.