Podcast appearances and mentions of Kelly criterion

Our special guest on the Betting 360 podcast features an interview with Dan Abrams, the author of "But How Much Did You Lose?". Dan shares his journey from poker to sports betting, and how he applies mathematical concepts like the Kelly Criterion to optimise betting decisions. He explains the difference between expected value and expected growth and the importance of managing variance in betting. When should you cash out? Abrams details hedging strategies, including his neutral hedge gambit, and how they are impacted by bankroll size. The interview also covers techniques like middling, arbitrage and scalping. He has some great advice for both beginner and experienced sports bettors, emphasising risk management and awareness of correlations between bets. The Betting 360 Podcast is brought to you by TopSport. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?

This week on Gambling with Good JuJu, Breezy and Juice are back for Season 3—and now on video! They kick things off by diving into the art of taking casual gamblers to the casino—how to optimize their time (and yours) while keeping it fun and +EV. They also break down the differences between betting to risk vs. betting to win, discussing which approach is best for your bankroll and why Kelly Criterion is key to long-term success. Plus, they've got some not-so-good news about their local casino, Par-A-Dice—tune in to find out what's going on. Good JuJu to your week!

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver—yes, the Nate Silver from 538—joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk—whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] – Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] – Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] – Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] – Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] – The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] – Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] – The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] – Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] – Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

In episode 741 of QAV, Tony and Cam discuss fear and greed with quotes from "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", analyse West African Resources' (WAF) market situation due to Burkina Faso's political climate, Bank of Queensland's (BOQ) franchise strategies, Tony's attempts to get ChatGPT to help with the Kelly Criterion, answer a question about US Dummy Portfolio Strategy, and discuss insights on price-to-cash flow ratios from 'What Works on Wall Street' by O'Shaughnessy. The 'Pulled Pork' section features an in-depth look at Adairs (ADH) and its new strategic direction. And, of course, After Hours.

Portfolio Manager Manar Hassan-Agha discusses the importance of position sizing in investing and how factors like behavioural biases, market structures, and optimal betting strategies under the Kelly Criterion can impact returns at varying position weights. The conversation explores limitations in precisely calculating probabilities and edges for stock investments and how frameworks and checklists can be used dynamically to thoughtfully consider odds, edges, and optimal sizing for investment decisions. This discussion highlights the various personas or strategies that investors can adopt in dealing with both the winners and losers in their portfolios. Many of the concepts discussed in this episode are the research and works of others. Manar talks through how we think about applying their lessons dynamically and from a first-principles basis to the day-to-day management of portfolios at Mawer. Key points from this episode: Lessen the emotional impact of a large loss on a single position with position sizing Use the Kelly Criterion to determine the optimal size of a bet, taking unpredictability into account Resist the instinct to embrace either nihilism or precision in investment decision-making Tailor position-sizing approaches to your own investment style and risk tolerance

Stephen Wolfram answers questions from his viewers about business, innovation, and managing life as part of an unscripted livestream series, also available on YouTube here: https://wolfr.am/youtube-sw-business-qa Questions include: Did you see the Oppenheimer movie? If so, what were your thoughts? - What are the things one should do to prepare oneself to become a scientist regarding education path, ideas, tools in the upcoming age of computation and AI? - Can "Kelly Criterion", aka calculating size of bets to place in markets, also be a good tool to manage life? Which is to say, you limit the size of your experiments by design? - ​Are you using any LLM Functions for managing your daily workflow? If so, which ones? - What's the "next big thing" in business? How will virtual spaces (like with Apple's new headset announcement) gaining popularity impact the workplace, if at all? - I'm a software engineer with about 8 years of professional experience. I'm interested in transitioning into the field of AI/machine learning. I found it quite difficult to find careers in the marketplace that don't require 5+ years of experience in AI/machine learning. Any advice on how best to make this transition? - What would you say to people who are scared to lose their jobs to AI? There are a lot of young professionals in the tech sector that are just getting started in becoming data analysts, project managers, and engineers. We are starting to hear a lot of bustle about these careers not being good investments in the long term. - A bit of a funny lifestyle question. What's your opinion on living off-grid (living in the rural quiet area) in a modern time? - Given the computational limitations of the human brain, are there drawbacks in thinking computationally? Do we risk losing track of high level patterns with too many parts to count? - When you were starting SMP, if someone else had already made significant progress in building a full-scale computational language, what would you have done? - Any cool projects you enjoyed working with during Summer School? - Science somewhat requires integration of many disciplines but in academia, almost only way to progress in your career is to publish stuff in your "area of expertise"

Jordan Cooper spends time discussing strategy for DFS contests, and taking questions from chat on Thursday, 2/9/23.

Jordan Cooper spends time discussing strategy for DFS contests, and taking questions from chat on Thursday, 2/9/23.

Pre-Note:One thing we did not get into was the relationship between the claps of FTX and the associated fraud and “Effective Altruism”—Effective Altruism not so much as a philosophy, but rather as a doctrine preached by a life-coach.If you want to have the highest chance of becoming rich, you make your bets as if you had a logarithmic utility function: if the downside to a bet cuts your wealth in half, you will not accept the bet unless the upside more than doubles your wealth. Accepting bets more risky than those that satisfy this Kelly Criterion, even though the gain exceeds the loss, will ultimately make you bankrupt and out of the game with very high probability and absolutely, filthy rich with very low probability.Effective Altruism tells you not only that you can but that you are under the strongest moral obligation to make such riskier-than-Kelly positive expected-value bets. The question, then, is what you do when the overwhelmingly likely bankruptcy takes place. And then the answer is often: the customers money was just sitting there, so we can borrow it to successfully gamble for resurrection, and then pay it back soon.Noah, however, is more cynical than I. He thinks there is a moderate chance that SBF, CE, and company are still very rich dudes indeed…Key Insights:* Future hypothetical Web3 good, perhaps, if there ever is a use case…* Web3 as currently existing not good—a fraud opportunity and a strongly negative-sum arena for grifters and loosely-wrapped gamblers…* Being a greater fool and buying crypto—not good…* SBF & CE & company may well still be very rich dudes…* Trust Vitalik Buterin, probably—but perhaps Noah is himself subject to affinity fraud…* Hexapodia!References:(Best to read these in order!)* Tracy Alloway & al.: Transcript: Sam Bankman-Fried and Matt Levine on How to Make Money in Crypto…* Sam Trabucco (from April 2021): ‘Two years ago, Alameda maintained pretty strict delta neutrality…* Adam Fisher: Sam Bankman-Fried Has a Savior Complex—And Maybe You Should Too* Adam Cochrane: This was a crime plain and simple…* Tyler Cowen: A simple point about existential risk* Matt Levine: FTX's Balance Sheet Was Bad...* Byrne Hobart: Money, Credit, Trust, and FTX…* @0xfbifemboy: What Happened at Alameda Research…* Patrick Wyman: The Verge: Renaissance, Reformation, & 40 Years That Shook the World…+, of course:* Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep  Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

On todays episode of the WTFinance I was happy to host  @Felix & Friends , experienced investment, Founder of Goat Academy and host of Felix & Friends YouTube page. On the podcast we talked about Felix's investment background, the challenges retail investors have, trading volatility through options and more! I hope you enjoy. 0:00 - Introduction0:27 - Felix's investing background1:46 - Bad experiences in finance industry6:10 - When you start investing matters10:14 - Retail investors over allocating 12:51 - Felix' strategy to analyse companies16:30 - Kelly Criterion 18:23 - Felix' option trading strategy25:13 - Trading volatility27:35 - Indicators for a recession and does it effect your strategy?30:47 - Investing in Asian markets?34:01 - Liquidity in option trading35:29 - Greatest mistakes retail investors make?37:27 - Animal appearance 38:00 - One message to takeaway from interview?Felix is an economist, banker and lawyer who quit the corporate world to be an entrepreneur and investor.  Felix and his furry friends share their 20+ years experience of investing in stocks, private equity, real estate and bonds daily on YouTube. His mission is to help you achieve financial freedom.Felix - Youtube -  @Felix & Friends  Website - https://goatacademy.org/Twitter - https://twitter.com/financefelixLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/felix-goat-academy/WTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfnTikTok - https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMeUjj9xV/iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Kelly criterion - In probability theory, the Kelly criterion, is a formula that determines the optimal theoretical size for a bet. It is valid when the expected returns are known. It is frequently used by investors to decide how much money they should allocate to each investment..  DISCLAIMER:  Host/Guest are not Financial Adviser/Investment Consultant. All opinions expressed by host or his guests are for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment/financial advice of any kind.  "Spark your FIRE" and its team are not liable to the listeners or any other party, for the listeners use of, or reliance on, any information received, directly or indirectly, from the content in any circumstances. Please conduct your own research and obtain independent legal, financial, taxation and/or other professional advice in respect of any decision made in connection with this audio. Contact -  sparkyourfirepodcast@gmail.com #ASX#StockMarket#BankStocks#CommercialRealEstate #FiatCurrency#Bitcoin#Blockchain#Decentralisation #HardMoney#Worldreserve#Mining#POW#EnergyStorage #QEforever#CDBC#InvestorsPodcast#Libra#SDR#MMT #facebook#Snapchat#TechStocks#IndustrialWarehouse #Litecoin#Ethereum#Gold#Property#Artificial intelligence  #Gold #Silver #Monetary policy

David Sumpter is a professor of applied mathematics at the University of Uppsala, in Sweden, and the author of a wonderful book called The 10 equations that Rule the World.He talks to Guy Spier about the various applications of mathematics in practical areas of our day-to-day life, such as social media algorithms, graph theory, Bayes' theorem, and even vaccinations.   Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/8sw5qidsc44bzkr2 Contents: Pure Mathematics vs. Applied Mathematics (00:00)Graph Theory and its Applications (10:39)The Advertising Equation in Social Media (17:11)Taking Control of the Algorithms that Control Us (20:11)“Fluffy Science” vs. Empirical Studies (25:02)From the Kelly Criterion to Bayes' Theorem (32:22)Mathematics Behind Vaccination Hesitancy (41:55)

In this episode, I cover my interpretation of the Kelly Criterion to help determine the optimum position size for a credit spread strategy. We'll talk through the basic idea as well as the four factors or variables you need to calculate the Kelly Criterion. This episode will give an example for applying it to a credit spread strategy but the Kelly Criterion can also be used for other strategies too. Free SPY Call Buying Strategy Course: https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/all-courses Great YouTube Video on the Kelly Criterion: https://youtu.be/THYLv5_0Vm8 Books Mentioned: Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched The Quant Revolution by Gregory Zuckerman Credit Spread Strategy Mentioned: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62651192

Professional sports bettor Rufus Peabody joins Pete and Brian to discuss the current sports betting landscape and Unabated Sports. If you have questions you'd like us to hit, hop in the #lolz channel inside the Deposit Kingdom discord (link below).

On this episode, Rob and Johnny discuss: - Determining the Size of Your Bankroll - Choosing a Staking System - Flat-Betting vs Percentage Betting - Kelly Criterion - Could you Tackle Derrick Henry? - Amateur Sports Bettor Picks & Much more... Check out LayItWithLuke's betstamp profile - https://betstamp.app/u/LayitWithLuke SportsBetting #betstamp ON TWITTER... Follow CirclesOff @CirclesOff Follow Rob @RobPizzola Follow betstamp @betstamp SHOW INDEX: (00:00) Intro (04:25) Bankroll Management/What is Bankroll? (08:23) Determining Size of Bankroll (11:34) Determining Risk Profile (14:27) Choosing a Staking System (17:45) Flat-Betting vs Percentage (22:15) Probablities - Kelly Criterion (34:49) Tips for Bankroll Management (37:00) Adjusting Play Size (38:21) Lay It With Luke (54:00) Luke's Betting (56:00) Thought Process (1:05:00) Injury News Reactions (1:06:30) Unit Size Variance (1:15:00) Key Takeaways

Il criterio di Kelly è un metodo matematico utilizzato nel mondo del gioco d'azzardo per capire come allocare il capitale per massimizzare la crescita e l'efficienza dello stesso. Il metodo è molto importante nel mondo finanziario: è un modello robusto basato su calcoli matematici relativamente semplici e basati su alcune variabili conosciute... ma come si applica e quando è utile per noi investitori? Oggi ne parliamo, quindi... sintonizzatevi!-----------TraderVue: https://www.tradervue.com/MEMBERSHIP: https://mataandassociates.com/membershipCONSULENZE: https://mataandassociates.com/consulenzeSITO: https://mataandassociates.comFACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/mataandassociates

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Selection Theorems: A Program For Understanding Agents, published by johnswentworth on the AI Alignment Forum. What's the type signature of an agent? For instance, what kind-of-thing is a “goal”? What data structures can represent “goals”? Utility functions are a common choice among theorists, but they don't seem quite right. And what are the inputs to “goals”? Even when using utility functions, different models use different inputs - Coherence Theorems imply that utilities take in predefined “bet outcomes”, whereas AI researchers often define utilities over “world states” or “world state trajectories”, and human goals seem to be over latent variables in humans' world models. And that's just goals. What about “world models”? Or “agents” in general? What data structures can represent these things, how do they interface with each other and the world, and how do they embed in their low-level world? These are all questions about the type signatures of agents. One general strategy for answering these sorts of questions is to look for what I'll call Selection Theorems. Roughly speaking, a Selection Theorem tells us something about what agent type signatures will be selected for (by e.g. natural selection or ML training or economic profitability) in some broad class of environments. In inner/outer agency terms, it tells us what kind of inner agents will be selected by outer optimization processes. We already have many Selection Theorems: Coherence and Dutch Book theorems, Good Regulator and Gooder Regulator, the Kelly Criterion, etc. These theorems generally seem to point in a similar direction - suggesting deep unifying principles exist - but they have various holes and don't answer all the questions we want. We need better Selection Theorems if they are to be a foundation for understanding human values, inner agents, value drift, and other core issues of AI alignment. The quest for better Selection Theorems has a lot of “surface area” - lots of different angles for different researchers to make progress, within a unified framework, but without redundancy. It also requires relatively little ramp-up; I don't think someone needs to read the entire giant corpus of work on alignment to contribute useful new Selection Theorems. At the same time, better Selection Theorems directly tackle the core conceptual problems of alignment and agency; I expect sufficiently-good Selection Theorems would get us most of the way to solving the hardest parts of alignment. Overall, I think they're a good angle for people who want to make useful progress on the theory of alignment and agency, and have strong theoretical/conceptual skills. Outline of this post: More detail on what “type signatures” and “Selection Theorems” are Examples of existing Selection Theorems and what they prove (or assume) about agent type signatures Aspects which I expect/want from future Selection Theorems How to work on Selection Theorems What's A Type Signature Of An Agent? We'll view the “type signature of an agent” as an answer to three main questions: Representation: What “data structure” represents the agent - i.e. what are its high-level components, and how can they be represented? Interfaces: What are the “inputs” and “outputs” between the components - i.e. how do they interface with each other and with the environment? Embedding: How does the abstract “data structure” representation relate to the low-level system in which the agent is implemented? A selection theorem typically assumes some parts of the type signature (often implicitly), and derives others. For example, coherence theorems show that any non-dominated strategy is equivalent to maximization of Bayesian expected utility. Representation: utility function and probability distribution. Interfaces: both the utility function and distribution take in “bet ...

Nicholas Yoder is a mathematician with twelve years of experience in derivatives trading and quantitative finance. He gives lectures to various institutions including The World Bank, Carnegie Mellon, and billion-dollar hedge funds. Nicholas joins Chris for a conversation on correctly sizing your investments using the Kelly Criterion, the financial alchemy of dollar-cost averaging, and strategies for sticking to your investing principles when you need them most. For the video, transcript, and show notes, visit https://forcingfunctionhour.com/nicholas-yoder (forcingfunctionhour.com/nicholas-yoder).

Circles Off welcomes Matt (@PlusEVAnalytics) to the podcast. Matt is an actuary by trade but focuses most of his free time on sports betting. Matt is known in the sports betting space for his mathematics background and his articles / commentary on many math related sports betting principles including Kelly Criterion and Closing Line Value. On this episode, Matt discusses some of these principles, answers some questions from the listeners, and talks about his new sports betting educaitonal course. Follow Circles Off @CirclesOff Follow betstamp @betstamp Follow Rob @RobPizzola Follow Matt @PlusEVAnalytics

The Kelly Criterion provides the optimal sizing for trades to achieve long term growth, but assumes that we go into trades knowing our edge exactly. Today, Jacob joins Tom and Tony to examine how a skeptical trader might go about applying the Kelly Criterion and relate it to a perfect application by the Kullback-Leibler divergence or relative entropy.

The Kelly Criterion provides the optimal sizing for trades to achieve long term growth, but assumes that we go into trades knowing our edge exactly. Today, Jacob joins Tom and Tony to examine how a skeptical trader might go about applying the Kelly Criterion and relate it to a perfect application by the Kullback-Leibler divergence or relative entropy.

The Kelly Criterion can be used to estimate the percentage of portfolio capital that should be allocated to a position to maximize long-term growth rate. Today, let's use the Kelly formalism (combined with the portfolio allocation guidelines) to construct a sample POP-weighted portfolio and see how that affects risk. Join Tom, Tony and Julia as they discuss POP-weighted portfolios.

The Kelly Criterion can be used to estimate the percentage of portfolio capital that should be allocated to a position to maximize long-term growth rate. Today, let's use the Kelly formalism (combined with the portfolio allocation guidelines) to construct a sample POP-weighted portfolio and see how that affects risk. Join Tom, Tony and Julia as they discuss POP-weighted portfolios.

In this episode we answer emails from Keith, Jeffrey, Evan, Brendan, Kelly and Paul.  We address Kelly Criterion and other risk/reward considerations (Sharpe and Sortino ratios), crystal balls, the "Possibility Effect" cognitive bias and a base-rate analysis of the Golden Butterfly portfolio, issues with IVOL, trading ETFs at Vanguard, the perpetual withdrawal rate, expense ratios and bucket strategies, basic retirement considerations, issues with QYLD  and an examination of Big Ern's leveraged retirement portfolios.It's another barn burner!   Real Wrath of God type stuff!Links:Kelly Criterion article:  Leverage and The Line Between Aggressive and Crazy (rhsfinancial.com)Golden Butterfly analysis with Heat Map:  Golden Butterfly – Portfolio ChartsEpisode 89 re QYLD:  Podcast Episode 89 | Risk Parity RadioBig Ern Article Re Leveraged Portfolios:  Lower risk through leverage – Early Retirement NowBig Ern Article Re Gold In Portfolios:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement NowEpisode 40 Re Gold:  Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity RadioPortfolio Analysis Comparison Of Big Ern Leveraged Portfolio With And Without Gold:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)The SWAN ETF:  SWAN - BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF - Amplify ETFs

The Kelly Criterion provides the optimal sizing for trades to achieve long term growth in idealized circumstances, but it requires care and attention to apply it in real trading. Today, Jacob joins Tom and Tony to look at how we can adjust our trade sizes based on our excess income or needs.

The Kelly Criterion provides the optimal sizing for trades to achieve long term growth in idealized circumstances, but it requires care and attention to apply it in real trading. Today, Jacob joins Tom and Tony to look at how we can adjust our trade sizes based on our excess income or needs.

In this episode we tackle the issue of late starters to saving and investing. Then we go deep into the concept of kelly criterion.

In high IV environments, it is historically and mathematically sound to allocate more capital. The capital allocation difference in low IV vs high IV according to the Kelly Criterion is 84% - 56% = 28%, similar to our 50% - 25% = 25%.  The main reason lies in the lower chance in an outlier loss as a multiple of credit received.  A simple reduction in the probability of outlier loss from 5% in low IV to 3% in high IV, is enough to justify a much greater capital allocation level.

In high IV environments, it is historically and mathematically sound to allocate more capital. The capital allocation difference in low IV vs high IV according to the Kelly Criterion is 84% - 56% = 28%, similar to our 50% - 25% = 25%.  The main reason lies in the lower chance in an outlier loss as a multiple of credit received.  A simple reduction in the probability of outlier loss from 5% in low IV to 3% in high IV, is enough to justify a much greater capital allocation level.

In this episode, Pete and Steve discuss the Kelly Criterion and whether Warren Buffett could be considered a Kelly investor. Buffett has never mentioned whether he is a Kelly investor, but by looking at the Kelly principles, Pete and Steve believe that Buffett is probably a Kelly investor given the way he invests and his philosophy which appears to be closely aligned with Kelly. They also discuss what criteria make for a Kelly type investor and how it can lead to greater investment returns over the long run. Books referred to: The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy by Robvert G. Hagstrom Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

After identifying an attractive trading opportunity, the question of how much capital to allocate to it is crucial for a trader.  Today, Jacob joins Tom and Tony to discuss the Kelly Criterion, which gives a mathematically optimal answer to this question in idealized circumstances, and how we can look to apply it in real world situations.

After identifying an attractive trading opportunity, the question of how much capital to allocate to it is crucial for a trader.  Today, Jacob joins Tom and Tony to discuss the Kelly Criterion, which gives a mathematically optimal answer to this question in idealized circumstances, and how we can look to apply it in real world situations.

This is the first time I have showed this as it has been re-activated a few years ago. This course is part of my Quant Elite service. It basically walks you the process of what career traders does to research market regions and sectors for potental industries. Once identified, there is an involved process to find stongest and weakest companies to find arbitrage opportuntities. I also cover the mechanics of positions managment, stats, R-squared, implied volatlity and Kelly Criterion.  https://quantlabs.net/blog/2021/02/detailed-quant-elite-courses-with-videos/ Get access here https://quantlabs.net/academy/product/quant-elite-service-2/

This weeks podcast discusses some of the lessons that can be taken from the world of gambling that might help a trader with sizing their trades.  We discuss what returns a trader might reasonably expect from the market. We look at the Kelly criterion (also known as the Kelly system or Kelly formula), to see if it can provide any insights to investors.Patricks' Books:Statistics for Traders:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0​Financial Derivatives:  https://amzn.to/3kwsPSr​Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC​ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleO...​Website: www.onfinance.org Twitter:https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle​Books:Ed Thorpe: https://amzn.to/3hG5gW4​Fortunes Formula: https://amzn.to/2YZAr7N​ When Genius Failed: https://amzn.to/3jhsUIW​Patrick on coffeezilla discussing these topics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfP4r...​Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)

Tony does a deep dive explanation on the Kelly Criterion and we discuss the challenges in applying it to share investing. We also discuss stocks that briefly stick their head above the ground and then retract them again (aka a groundhog), review Tony's thoughts on average daily trade volume, answer a question about whether SFR is a Schrodinger, talk about how the Reserve Bank's decision to go max QE and the US election might affect the market, review the CAA consolidation and aluminium prices, and Tony's stock pick of the week is KMD.

Our slightly controversial interview with investor Stephen Moriarty, co-author of the book 'Low Rates High Returns'. We discuss his approach to using CAPE ratios and Kelly Criterion to time his investing and determine how much of his portfolio he puts into the market.

Subscribe to the show   Bet size determines what you make and lose.   How did you come to decide your current bet size?   You probably guessed and just chose one.   You can use Kelly Criterion to figure out the best size after hundreds / thousands of trades.   Click here to get your free copy of The Inner Voice of Trading audiobook.

Subscribe to the show Bet size determines what you make and lose. How did you come to decide your current bet size? You probably guessed and just chose one. You can use Kelly Criterion to figure out the best size after hundreds / thousands of trades. Click here to get your free copy of The Inner Voice of Trading audiobook.

Welcome back to another edition of the "Just Swingin It" podcast. On today's episode Jon explains the Kelly Criterion and how to use it to determine the optimal position size for you trades based on your probability of success. Hope you enjoy. Be sure to do your HW and share this show with at least 5 friends. We did record this episode and a previous date and decided to re-record parts and it ended up being relesed a week later than planned, so we cut the picks potion out of the show because those were for a previous week. So, if there are a few parts where the sound jumps it is from cutting portions and adding portions etc. Like.Rate.Review.Share.Subscribe.Comment.GetInvolved. Keep Swingin' It!! Follow Us At: Official: @Swinginit (Twitter), @Pivotal_Trading (Twitter), Pivotal Trading (YouTube) Chris: @chrismcbride_12 (All Platforms) Jon: @burrellinvests (Twitter) If you know someone that is an experienced/beginner trader, or is in finance, business, or real estate that you think fits our show email us their information at keepswinginit@gmail.com --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/justswinginit/support

Our guest this week is Matt from http://www.plusevanalytics.com. He is a Canadian actuary who also dabbles in advantage play. We discuss Taleb's concept of anti-fragility and how that is very useful in sports betting. We also discuss how the Kelly Criterion comes up with different answers sometimes and how are we to know which is which?We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.podcastClick to listen - Alt click to downloadShow Notes[00:00]  Introduction of Matt from PlusEVAnalytics.com[00:50]  Show notes information and availability[02:36]  The best forum for site comments and feedback is at GamblingWithAnEdge.com[03:21]  Actuarial science as a profession[05:40]  Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Twitter.com/nntaleb[11:14]  NFL season totals and antifragility[15:45]  Dow Jones and antifragility[17:36]  PointsBet.com and distributional mathematics[24:46]  Super Bowl prop bets, Michael Shackleford, and market efficiency[30:35]  Sportsbook hold versus roulette hold, epistemic uncertainty and adverse selection[39:19]  South Point Casino October Promotions - 'Free Play with a Kicker'[39:59]  Predictit.org/promo/edge - place small bets on various political outcomes, $20 deposit match for GWAE listeners[40:40]  BlackjackApprenticeship.com - card counting training site and community[41;02]  VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers correction on most games[41:57]  Kelly Criterion[45:49]  Being both an actuary and a gambler[53:10]  How can listeners contact Matt?[56:03]  Recommended - Schitt's Creek on Netflix, Captain Jack Andrews on Youtube and TwitterSponsored Links:SouthPointCasino.comPredictit.org/promo/edgeBlackjackApprenticeship.comVideoPoker.com/gwaeGuest Links:PlusEVAnalytics.com  Twitter.com/PlusEVAnalyticsPlusEVAnalytics.wordpress.com/publicationsRecommended:Schitt's Creek, Netflix.com/title/80036165Captain Jack Andrews, Youtube.com/CaptainJackAndrews/videos, Twitter.com/capjack2000

Today’s guest is Richard Cook, co-founder and portfolio manager at Cook & Bynum based in Birmingham, Alabama. Richard is a pure value investor. Both the depth and breadth of his thinking shined through in our conversation. We talked about Arca, a Mexican Coca-Cola bottler that Richard evaluated for the multi-decade durability of its business. We had a great conversation in which Richard detailed a high-level structural analysis of Arca’s business while at the same time deploying a unique brand of shoe leather research bumping along the roads of Mexico to visit local shops in order to understand the company’s execution and positioning. If you would like notes from today’s episode, please subscribe to our free newsletter. I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did. Feel free to email info@investingindepth.com with feedback. You can follow Cook & Bynum on their web site. 1:35 Path to becoming an investor: receiving 5 shares of 5 stocks as a third grade Christmas gift. Reading Roger Lowenstein’s, Buffett: The Making of An American Capitalist was a turning point. 6:00 Arca Continental is a Coca-Cola bottler based in Northern Mexico. Coca-Cola sells them syrup and they have an exclusive regional franchise to bottle and sell Coke.  8:00 How Arca Continental hit Richard’s radar screen. 10:25 Framework for evaluating businesses: circle of competence, business, people, and price.  10:30 Using old-fashioned shoe leather research. Richard drove from his home base in Birmingham, Alabama, to Mexico to visit small stores along back country dirt roads to evaluate the quality of Arca’s execution at its points of sale. “You want to understand why does the consumer choose your product and not someone else’s... and what does the company say those reasons are and do those match up.” 14:55 Identifying structural barriers to competition: Fragmentation of distribution. 22:18 Evaluating people — a critical aspect of emerging markets investing. “You usually have two sets of people. There’s management… there’s also the key shareholders, which is frequently a family or two or three and you have to triangulate on whether or not you want to be in business with this family.” 26:20 Investing in a less liquid name. “Most of the volume was going through a single broker … and we figured out that we needed to have a relationship with that broker…. You have to go find where the liquidity is.” 27:50 Monitoring areas of ongoing risk and uncertainty after making an initial investment: focusing on mega trends. 33:10 How Arca maintains its strength: investing in and strengthening the mom-and-pop store channel that distributes its Coke products. 38:24 Sizing the investment: Expected return divided by risk, which Richard defines as the how wide the range of outcomes relative to expectations may be. His write-up on avoiding losers  captures Richard’s unique approach to thinking about risk. He also has a terrific write-up on the Kelly Criterion, which was originally used in information theory and has served as a guide for Richard’s focus on maximizing geometric means rather than arithmetic means in investment decisions. The original Kelly paper is here and William Poundstone’s Fortune’s Formula is a history of John Kelly and Claude Shannon’s efforts at Bell Labs in the 1950s developing his formula. 45:44 Recommended reading Robert Massie’s Peter the Great for providing perspective on emerging markets across history. CV Wedgwood’s The Thirty Years War for providing perspective on the impact that a major reduction in the cost of communication can have on society. Anything by Peter Kaufman (there are a lot of YouTube videos). One of his insights is that if a business optimizes toward win-win solutions, that goes a long way toward decreasing risk and increasing durability: “All the people that interact with this business, are they winning? If they are, then that’s a lot more durable. You can say a lot more about what the profitability and durability of that business is 10, 15, 30 years from now.“ Richard was humble in not mentioning the Cook & Bynum web site. It contains a terrific Bookshelf section with recommended books as well as scores of fantastic “C&B Notes” covering a broad range of topics in investing and beyond. Note: This podcast is for educational purposes only and nothing here constitutes a recommendation or offer.

In this episode, Juan and Andy speak with Taylor Pearson, a fund manager with a particular interest in creating research-backed systems to make decisions in an uncertain world, thus making people more ‘antifragile'. One of these systems included ergodicity which can be explained as a scenario where the average outcome of the group is the same as the average outcome of the individual over time. An example of an ergodic systems would be the outcomes of a coin toss (heads/tails). If 100 people flip a coin once or 1 person flips a coin 100 times, you get the same outcome. Taylor discusses how this theory can help people make decisions in uncertain environments.   Minutes: 01:10 Intro to Taylor  01:35 Notable days in history and their volatility 03:59 How do you define risk? 05:43 What is ergodicity? 08:23 Where is ergodicity relevant in our everyday life? 16:42 What is the best advice to give someone who may be succumbing to non-ergodic systems? 18:53 How does ergodicity apply in stock market scenarios? 23:53 How does diversification play a part? 26:25 Does diversification need to be oppositional? 29:52 How do you communicate probability in a way clients easily understand? 31:45 The Kelly Criterion: utilising a theory to size your decisions 34:36 An example of a bad decision 36:08 Book Recommendations – The Three Body Problem by Liu Cixin and The Origins of Political Order by Francis Fukuyama NEW EPISODES: You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast players.   GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam    Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.  

We discuss the Kelly Criterion and the psychology of maximising your long-term wealth…and how to approach your wealth goal safely. Some of the points we cover in this episode include: -The prince and the pauper: diminishing marginal utility -Why we should become more risk averse as we approach our wealth goal -Arithmetic versus logarithmic returns -Compounded returns: Buffett versus the S&P 500 1965-2019 -Exponential returns and why the rich get richer -Objective versus subjective approaches to Kelly investing -Betting what you're emotionally comfortable with Books and research mentioned Daniel Bernoulli – expected utility hypothesis (diminishing marginal utility) Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book 'Low Rates, High Returns' https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

In this episode, we discuss how we use the Kelly criterion in our own investing strategy. Investing is not a one-time event, and markets are not always efficient, as claimed by Harry Markowitz and his followers. Investing is instead a series of repeated similar bets, and markets are frequently inefficient. We can regularly find stock markets and sectors which have become cheaper than their long-run mean valuations. Given the above, why wouldn't you look to place bets on high-probability events rather than risk losing your capital in expensive markets? Kelly developed a formula that showed how to invest fractionally and understand your edge. Kelly investing should lead you to the question: ‘What is your informational edge?' In this episode Stephen tells us about one informational edge he uses - the CAPE ratio - and how it can be yours too, given its high correlation with expected returns. We discuss why understanding the Kelly criterion, capital growth theory, and position sizing are crucial to maximising your long term wealth. There will always be great opportunities in the future, so you must make sure you are around to capitalise on them by waiting for the fat pitch. Some of the key points we discuss in this episode include: -What is the Kelly Criterion? -A proven system for maximising your long-term wealth -THIS is what your information edge can be -It's a big world out there, and there are many markets to choose from. Why limit yourself? -When the odds are in your favour, bet more (and when they're not, bet less...or not at all). Download a free chapter of our book: https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast These are the books we mentioned in the episode. Check them out! Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38315.Fooled_by_Randomness The Warren Buffett Way by Robert G. Hagstrom https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18613679-the-warren-buffett-way-workbook

The Kelly Criterion holds that we should look to buy companies when they are cheap or undervalued, to maximize our geometric returns. But remember the risk hierarchy: investing in individual companies can entail a risk of permanent loss of capital. Instead of looking for the next big thing, when investing in companies we look instead for market mispricing: finding opportunities to buy a dollar for 50 cents. The Lindy Principle tells us that when some companies and brands have been around for a very long time, then we should expect them to remain around for a very long time into the future - a key quality to look out for in potential company investments. We discuss how to find established, profitable, systemic companies, which will throw off powerful dividend or income streams for decades to come. OK, everybody look away now: Steve also tells us why tobacco has been one of the best performing sectors over the decades. We touch on the pros and cons of ethical investing (ESG) from a returns perspective, and how fund managers are now shifting their thinking towards investing in sustainable companies. Some of the key points we covered in this episode include: - What type of companies should you invest in? - How to avoid losing money in individual stocks - Looking for established, systemic companies - Which sectors to look for and which to avoid - The importance of the dividend component of your returns Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ' Low Rates, High Returns' https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

Bob discusses the famous Kelly criterion, which is a rule for capital management relevant in both gambling and investing. Bob explains the appeal of the Kelly criterion but also details how professional economists have disputed its importance. Bob illustrates the points with references to his high school Blackjack days. Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest: Kelly's original 1956 paper (http://www.herrold.com/brokerage/kelly.pdf) laying out his optimal bet sizing rule. A professor's notes (http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/434/434Context/Kelly%20Resources/KellyIndex.htm) linking to three separate articles from 1979 in which Paul Samuelson and two others battled over the optimality of the Kelly criterion (which is equivalent to maximizing the expectation of the geometric mean of outcomes). The Blackjack book where high school Bob was first exposed to the Kelly criterion: The World's Greatest Blackjack Book. (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0385153821/ref=as_li_qf_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=consultingbyr-20&creative=9325&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=0385153821&linkId=503cd4cb1131e9a68d89fb4f9f1e988d) #CommissionsEarned (As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.) Help support (http://bobmurphyshow.com/contribute)  the Bob Murphy Show. The audio production for this episode was provided by  Podsworth Media (http://podsworth.com/) .

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7 Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7 Watch this video on what a 10x company is, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY Watch this video on how new tech goes mainstream, https://youtu.be/gVsFsydllNo Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768 This video was recorded on the morning of March 2, 2020. The DOW ended up closing the day at 26,703, up 1293 points for the day. Last week the market sold off due to Coronavirus fears, but today the market rebounded. Tesla Stock (TSLA) ended the day at $743. When trying to predict what’s the market going to do with news like the Corona virus, often times it’s quite complex. Most of the time people tend to think in black or white, either/or. However, there are many possible scenarios with varying degrees of probabilities. When betting on this kind of news, there are two main factors: 1. Coronavirus impact 2. How market reacts and when You could be right on the Coronavirus, but could be wrong on how the market reacts and when. Determining the how the market reacts and when can be very difficult doe to many factors, such as: How much market goes down When it goes down When it starts going up Quickly goes up or slowly? Government actions? Big money actions It’s also difficult to predict where Coronavirus will end up in 2-3 month and it’s impact on the global economy. To bet successfully you need to have odds in your favor for both Coronavirus prediction but also how and when the market reacts. Often times emotions might make you think you have the advantage because you have strong feelings that bias your judgement. There are various approaches in dealing with volatility. 1. Dips as buying opportunity Warren Buffett holds stock long-term and views dips as buying opportunities. But his situation may be unique since he has $100+ billion in cash to deploy and his business generate billions in cash every year. So he can be a net buyer of stock every year. 2. Trade volatility Oftentimes with short-term trading, you’ll need to do smaller bets to mitigate risk but you’ll need to do bets in volume. Check out the Kelly Criterion on a mathematical approach on how to size bets. 3. Get in to generational 10x company at right valuation, ride out volatility This is my preferred approach. Check out my video on how to time stock purchases for 10x gains. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyVItZQtzd0 The real-time stock ticker tends to program on minds to focus on the short-term due the instant liquidity without any closing costs it provides. It’s a powerful force, but can provide an edge if you have a long-term perspective and look at the core fundamentals of what makes a company/product successful over time. Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Author is long TSLA at time of original video publish date. Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA ShortsSubscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7 Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7 Watch this video on what a 10x company is, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY Watch this video on how new tech goes mainstream, https://youtu.be/gVsFsydllNo Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768 This video was recorded on the morning of March 2, 2020. The DOW ended up closing the day at 26,703, up 1293 points for the day. Last week the market sold off due to Coronavirus fears, but today the market rebounded. Tesla Stock (TSLA) ended the day at $743. When trying to predict what’s the market going to do with news like the Corona virus, often times it’s quite complex. Most of the time people tend to think in black or white, either/or. However, there are many possible scenarios with varying degrees of probabilities. When betting on this kind of news, there are two main factors: 1. Coronavirus impact 2. How market reacts and when You could be right on the Coronavirus, but could be wrong on how the market reacts and when. Determining the how the market reacts and when can be very difficult doe to many factors, such as: How much market goes down When it goes down When it starts going up Quickly goes up or slowly? Government actions? Big money actions It’s also difficult to predict where Coronavirus will end up in 2-3 month and it’s impact on the global economy. To bet successfully you need to have odds in your favor for both Coronavirus prediction but also how and when the market reacts. Often times emotions might make you think you have the advantage because you have strong feelings that bias your judgement. There are various approaches in dealing with volatility. 1. Dips as buying opportunity Warren Buffett holds stock long-term and views dips as buying opportunities. But his situation may be unique since he has $100+ billion in cash to deploy and his business generate billions in cash every year. So he can be a net buyer of stock every year. 2. Trade volatility Oftentimes with short-term trading, you’ll need to do smaller bets to mitigate risk but you’ll need to do bets in volume. Check out the Kelly Criterion on a mathematical approach on how to size bets. 3. Get in to generational 10x company at right valuation, ride out volatility This is my preferred approach. Check out my video on how to time stock purchases for 10x gains. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyVItZQtzd0 The real-time stock ticker tends to program on minds to focus on the short-term due the instant liquidity without any closing costs it provides. It’s a powerful force, but can provide an edge if you have a long-term perspective and look at the core fundamentals of what makes a company/product successful over time. Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Author is long TSLA at time of original video publish date. Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA ShortsSubscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

My friend has been important to me for 6 or 7 years. I had no idea that he had any money until about 3 years ago. My friend is a professional gambler. No, he doesn't gamble on green felt tables with cards or dice. He gambles on NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange. “Oh, he's an investor,” you say. “No, I'm a highly informed gambler,” he responds. My friend wins 7 out of every 8 bets and makes about $100,000 a week. No, I won't give you his name and it wouldn't do you any good if I did. He won't share any tips with you or me or anyone else and he certainly doesn't need our money. He is a lone wolf hunting a lone wolf's prey. My gambling friend doesn't embrace traditional stock market wisdom but calculates the size of his bets according to his degree of confidence using https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion (the Kelly Criterion,) an obscure formula used by professional gamblers since 1956. I, too, am a professional gambler who determines the size of his bets according to the degree of his confidence. But I don't gamble my money on the stock market. I gamble my client's money on ad campaigns. My ads make millions of dollars a week, but I don't get to keep the money. It goes to the people who believed in my methods. Investors don't like to think of themselves as gamblers. That's why so many of them lose. The same is true of advertisers. Investors and advertisers like to believe they are scientists. Investors fall in love with stocks. Advertisers fall in love with media. Gamblers love only the dance. My friend taught me that. He and I agree that traditional wisdom is usually more tradition than wisdom. Do you agree with us? If you do, here are a few of those non-traditional thoughts about advertising that have been responsible for those millions of dollars a week. Your choice of media doesn't make your ad perform. Your ad makes your choice of media perform. So be careful not to count on “reaching the right people.” Instead, be careful to say the right things. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided. Don't try to “educate the customer,” believing they would choose you, “if only they understood.” Talk about something they already care about. Speak to a felt need. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided. If you try to reach the right person at the right time with the right message, you will forever be frustrated with feast-and-famine results. But if you reach the masses with a memorable message long before they need you, and continue to reach them until they do, you will be the person they think of immediately and feel the best about. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided. If you have a product with a short purchase cycle (like food and entertainment,) you can expect quick results to your advertising. But if you have a product with a long purchase cycle, you need to prepare yourself for dismal results at first, but those results will get better and better when your ad campaign finally gets traction. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided. Entertainment is the only currency with which you can purchase the time and attention of a too-busy public. Without an element of surprise, there can be no delight. Repetition is effective. Repetition is effective. Repetition is effective. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided. If you want to read some fascinating case histories, https://wizardofads.org/articles/ (take a look at this new blog.) And never forget that you are, in fact, gambling. Roy H. Williams

“You can't think without risk” ~ Jordan Peterson Is there risk inherent in thought? Are you a risky person or do you prefer to identify as risk adverse? If you were a master of risk are there things you would approach differently? There are strategies to maximize returns given risk, can those same strategies be applied to thought? Is it true that "You can't think without risk"?

Tommy discusses the Kelly Criterion.

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Don't ruin your reputation or get wiped to zero. • Don't bet everything on one big gamble 0:00 • Ruining your reputation is the same as getting wiped to zero 0:54 Transcript: http://nav.al/kelly-criterion    

Sex Panther, Arch and Mad Max take a look at the full rack of NBA games today. There's a couple questionable line movements today. Are there some potential traps? The Kelly Criterion test was 0-1 yesterday so it's slipped the last couple days, but still showing a profit. DAL 235 3.95 DEN 210 2.12 DET -175 0.30 MEM 175 1.25 MIA -400 7.57 NO 240 7.55 OKC 115 1.41 PHI 250 4.85     Read more about the Kelly here: http://absolutedegeneracy.libsyn.com/the-kelly-criterion Come hangout and bs with us on Discord: https://discord.gg/rFC3vEa Follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/bettingabsolute    

 John from Juicestorm interviews Marius Norheim, the CEO of Trademate Sports. In this episode we talk about topics such as:  The Story behind Trademate Sports, the leading sports trading tool on the market.  How Trademate Sports finds value The Trademate Sports bot Trademate Core: A tool for new and aspiring sports traders.  Who is a typical sports trader? Trademate Pro: A tool for professional sports traders How are the Trademate users doing? The Trademate Community numbers such as net profits and flat ROI What are the good things about Trademate, what challenges do you experience in the market?  Flat stake sizing vs a proportional staking strategy, the Kelly Criterion.  The difference between soft and sharp bookmakers and which you should choose. Marius's beginning as a sports trader.  Jonas Gjelstad and how he went from $10k to $1 million.   

Getting over the hump of what is a short holiday week has been a challenge between the cold weather and the difficulties with getting back into a rhythm after back-to-back holiday weekends. We're here to help on BangTheBook Radio. This midweek edition of the show with host Adam Burke begins with Bryan Leonard from WagerTalk.com. The guys will discuss the College Football Playoff National Championship Game between Alabama and Georgia by looking at the line movement that we have seen so far. They'll talk about different approaches to the huge game, which is sure to have one of the tightest lines of the season. After that, Adam and Bryan will break down the Wild Card Weekend in the NFL playoffs by hitting all four games. Wes Reynolds joins us for another Wednesday Wagering segment today to discuss bankroll management strategies and also how to bet on golf. A listener question prompted a discussion of how to bet a high-volume bankroll. Is flat betting the wise move? How about using a modification of the Kelly Criterion? Do any other systems work? The Sentry Tournament of Champions marks golf's return after the holiday break and we'll have golf just about every week through October now. Wes shared some of his strategies and tips for this season.

The Rebel Traders are always looking for strategies that give them the extra edge in the markets and in this weeks show, Sean and Phil are putting on the tin hats, jumping across enemy lines and looking for the hidden gold with a much heralded money management system derived from a formula originally developed for Bell Labs and AT&T for handling long distance noise on their phone lines... Yes, that is the origin of the "Kelly Criterion" and in this week's show Sean & Phil take a detailed look at how this system, often used by professional gamblers, can also help you as a trader optimize your position sizing and become not only a smarter trader but a "Kelly's Hero" too...

Dr. William Ziemba’s an academic, a practitioner, gambler, trader and an author. He’s worked with and consulted to many well-respected names in the field, such as; Edward Thorp, Blair Hull and the very successful horse bettor, Bill Benter. In the beginning, horse betting was William’s field of expertise (he even published a book titled, Beat The Racetrack!) And in many ways, for William, horse betting worked as a gateway to trading financial markets—which he’s been doing since 1983. Now in current times, William manages a fund; Alpha Z Advisors—which started trading in July 2013 and as of May 2017, has returned 527%. Much of William's trading revolves around calendar anomalies, arbitrage strategies and behavioral biases. We spend a good amount of time discussing these few things, plus William shares one anomaly he's been trading for many years. In the later part of this episode, we also talk about position sizing, the Kelly Criterion and finally, horse racing.

In Episode 39, we welcome the legendary Ed Thorp. Ed is a self-made man after having been a child of The Depression. He’s a professor, a renowned mathematician, a fund manager who’s posted one of the lengthiest and best investment track records in all of finance, a best-selling author (his most recent book is A Man for All Markets), the creator of the first wearable computer, and finally, the individual responsible for “counting cards.” Meb begins the episode in the same place as does Ed in his new book, the Depression. Meb asks how that experience shaped Ed’s world view. Ed tells us about being very poor, and how it forced him to think for himself, as well as teach himself. In fact, Ed even taught himself how to make his own gunpowder and nitroglycerine. This dovetails into the various pranks that Ed played as a mischievous youth. Ed tells us the story of dying a public pool blood-red, resulting in a general panic. It’s not long before we talk about Ed’s first Las Vegas gambling experience. He had heard of a blackjack system developed by some quants, that was supposed to give the player a slight mathematical advantage. So Ed hit the tables with a strategy-card based on that system. At first, his decisions caused other players at the table to ridicule him. But when Ed’s strategy ended up causing him to hit “21” after drawing 7 cards, the players’ opinions instantly changed from ridicule to respect. This was the basis from which Ed would create his own counting cards system. Meb asks for a summary of how it works. Ed gives us the highlights, which involve a number count that helps a player identify when to bet big or small. Meb then asks why Ed decided to publish his system in academic journals instead of keeping it hush-hush and making himself a fortune. Ed tells us that he was academically-oriented, and the spirit of science is to share. The conversation turns toward the behavioral side of gambling (and investing). Once we move from theory to practice, the impact of emotions plays a huge role. There’s a psychic burden on morale when you’re losing. Meb asks how Ed handled this. Ed tells us that his early days spent gambling in the casinos were a great training ground for later, when he would be “gambling” with tens of millions of dollars in the stock market. He said his strategy was to start small, so he could handle the emotions of losing. As he became more comfortable with his level of risk, he would scale his bets to the next level, grow comfortable, then move up again from there. In essence, don’t bet too much too fast. This dovetails into the topic of how to manage money using the Kelly Criterion, which is a system for deciding the amount to bet in a favorable situation. Ed explains that if you bet too small, won’t make much money, even if you win. However, “if you bet too much, you’ll almost certainly be ruined.” The Kelly Criterion helps you determine the appropriate middle ground for position sizing using probabilities. It turns out that Ed was so successful with his methods, that Vegas changed the rules and eventually banned Ed from their casinos. To continue playing, Ed turned to disguises, and tells a fun story about growing a beard and using contact lenses to avoid identification. Meb tells us about one of his own card-counting experiences, which was foiled by his partner’s excessive Bloody Mary consumption. Next, we move to Wall Street. Meb brings up Ed’s performance record, which boasts one of the highest risk-adjusted returns of all time – in 230 months of investing, Ed had just 3 down months, and all were 1% or less. Annualized, his performance was over 19%. Ed achieved this remarkable record by hedging securities that were mispriced – using convertible bond and options from the same company. There was also some index arbitraging. Overall, Ed’s strategy was to hedge away as much risk as possible, then let a diversified portfolio of smaller bets play out. Meb asks, when you have a system that has an edge, yet its returns begin to erode, how do you know when it’s time to give up the strategy, versus when to invest more (banking on mean reversion of the strategy). Ed tells us that he asks himself, “Did the system work in the past, is it working now, and do I believe it will it in the future?” Also “What is the mechanism that’s driving it?” You need to understand whether the less-than-desired current returns are outside the range of usual fluctuation. If you don’t know this, then you won’t know whether you’re experiencing bad luck (yet within statistical reason) or if something has truly changed and your “bad luck” is actually abnormal and concerning. Next, Meb asks about Ed’s most memorable trade. You’ll want to hear this one for yourself, but it involves buying warrants for $0.27, and the stock price eventually rising to $180. There’s plenty more in this fantastic episode, including why Ed told his wife that Warren Buffett would be the richest man in America one day (said back in 1968)… What piece of investing advice Ed would give to the average investor today… Ed’s interest in being cryogenically frozen… And finally, Ed’s thoughts on the source of real life-happiness, and how money fits in. The show ends with Meb revealing that he has bought Ed and himself two lottery Powerball tickets, and provides Ed the numbers. Will Ed win this bet? The drawing is soon, so we’ll see. All this and more in Episode 39.

Call our Voicemail Hotline: 951-292-4377; World Series of Poker final table wrap-up; NBA comissioner Adam Silver says, "Let's gamble!" Trump Taj Mahal to close December 12, 2014; Archie Karas gets a slap on the wrist; Dr. Mike will be in Las Vegas December 5-7, 2014; Dice setting; Unlimited odds at craps: What would we do? Dealer mistakes; The Kelly Criterion

Volatility Views 23: Can You Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns?Volatility Review: VIX futures vs. VIX cash -- many long-dated contracts predicted the sell-off in VIX cash that is now materializing. Bond vol has been crazy, and bonds themselves have been very expensive. Implied and realized volatility. Volatility Viewpoint: Don takes this viewpoint segment to discuss the ideas and principles behind the Kelly Criterion. Crystal Ball: With the VIX in decline, as it moves toward the prediction given by long-term futures, will it dip and then turn back to the upside? An outlook of Euro vol -- with the period of arb availability gone, can we find a new relationship to exploit?

Ace and Lake have an update on their week at the tables to kick off this edition of Poker Talk Beyond The Books on Rounders Radio. From the forum we discuss 2nd level thinking in online play, answer an Omaha newbie question, and talk about playing in low-limit tourneys online. Lake talks about the Kelly Criterion, and we discuss an interesting hand history to finish out the show.

Ace and Lake have an update on their week at the tables to kick off this edition of Poker Talk Beyond The Books on Rounders Radio. From the forum we discuss 2nd level thinking in online play, answer an Omaha newbie question, and talk about playing in low-limit tourneys online. Lake talks about the Kelly Criterion, and we discuss an interesting hand history to finish out the show.