Podcast appearances and mentions of Larry Sabato

This week's show is sponsored by: EPIC-MRA Public Opinion Research MIRS News Fulton Fish Market This week on ""A Republic, If You Can Keep It" Thousands demonstrate against Trump's destruction of the government and economy. Is this a replay of the movements that brought Civil Rights laws in the 1960's, the end of the VietNam war in the 1970s, and the birth of the GOP rightward leap via the Tea Party in the 2009 and the women's movement of the 2010s? Governor Whitmer has reinforced talk of a 2028 presidential run with a high-profile speech in Washington this week … paired with a one-on-one meeting with Donald Trump. Was she measuring the curtains in the Oval Office? Penguins are breathing a sigh of relief as Trump blinks on his one-man demolition of the economy. But the slingshot economic tactics are a political threat to the reelection campaigns of Republicans nationwide and in Michigan - with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now targeting 3 Republican-held districts in our state. One of those Trump-backing Republicans, Congressman John James, says he's running for Governor, meaning his 10th district congressional seat is a definite flip opportunity for Democrats. We'll be joined by the latest Democratic candidate for that job, Macomb County assistance prosecuting attorney Christina Hines. Trump is weaponizing the once respected DOJ by ordering criminal investigations into two critics in the private sector: Chris Krebs and Miles Taylor. Online rumors fueled by Indivisible warn Trump may invoke the Insurrection Act to shut down protest rallies across the nation Mallory McMorrow's media rollout for her Senate campaign goes national: multiple MSNBC appearance plus "The Daily Show" Larry Sabato's initial House election projections show Democrats with a slight advantage, with 5 Michigan congressional districts in play One of the most-watched congressional races in the nation next year will be centered in Macomb County and Michigan's 10th district. With John James running for Governor, the swing district is a definite coin toss. Democrats will have a competition in the primary. Last month we talked with Alex Hawkins, the first announced candidate. Joining the race in the last week: Christina Hines. A graduate of the University of Michigan and Wayne State Law School, Hines ran for Macomb County Prosecutor in 2024 against sitting prosecutor Peter Lucido, with Lucido receiving 57% of the vote while Hines held 43%. Prior to that, she served as an assistant prosecuting attorney in Wayne County before heading up the Special Victims Unit in Washtenaw County.  This episode is sponsored in part by =========================== EPIC ▪ MRA, a full service survey research firm with expertise in • Public Opinion Surveys • Market Research Studies • Live Telephone Surveys • On-Line and Automated Surveys • Focus Group Research • Bond Proposals - Millage Campaigns • Political Campaigns & Consulting • Ballot Proposals - Issue Advocacy Research • Community - Media Relations • Issue - Image Management • Database Development & List Management =========================== ===========================

As more unredacted information is released as part of a document dump related to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, we're learning more about clandestine operations that were also underway at that time. Law&Crime's Jesse Weber takes another deep dive into the latest documents with University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato.PLEASE SUPPORT THE SHOW: If your child, under 21, has been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes or fatty liver disease, visit https://forthepeople.com/food to start a claim now! HOST:Jesse Weber: https://twitter.com/jessecordweberLAW&CRIME SIDEBAR PRODUCTION:YouTube Management - Bobby SzokeVideo Editing - Michael Deininger, Christina O'Shea & Jay CruzScript Writing & Producing - Savannah Williamson & Juliana BattagliaGuest Booking - Alyssa Fisher & Diane KayeSocial Media Management - Vanessa BeinSTAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LAW&CRIME NETWORK:Watch Law&Crime Network on YouTubeTV: https://bit.ly/3td2e3yWhere To Watch Law&Crime Network: https://bit.ly/3akxLK5Sign Up For Law&Crime's Daily Newsletter: https://bit.ly/LawandCrimeNewsletterRead Fascinating Articles From Law&Crime Network: https://bit.ly/3td2IqoLAW&CRIME NETWORK SOCIAL MEDIA:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lawandcrime/Twitter: https://twitter.com/LawCrimeNetworkFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/lawandcrimeTwitch: https://www.twitch.tv/lawandcrimenetworkTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lawandcrimeSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

With just one week to go until election day Vice President Harris delivers closing argument at the site of Trump's infamous January 6th, 2021 rally. Plus, the former President continues to defend his controversial Madison Square Garden rally. And, a leader in the fight to end gun violence says its time to step away from activism. Larry Sabato, Evan McMorris-Santoro, Errin Haines, Barry Ritholtz, Dan Nathan, Matthew Dowd, Chuck Rocha, and Fred Guttenberg join The 11th Hour this Tuesday. 

Well, we predicted it, everyone. Back in July, I described what the Kamala Harris strategy would be. I wrote that they will try to get people excited about Kamala for about 5 min, and when that does work, they will go back to calling Trump a fascist. And guess what? Here we are. Everyone from Kamala Harris to Keith Olbermann to even Larry Sabato at UVA Center for Politics has been comparing Trump to Hitler and calling him a fascist…so we decided to ask a question…when we look at fascism as an ideology, does one candidate align with their actual objectives? So that is what we will do today. We will put away the political rhetoric and actually look at fascist policies straight from the fascists themselves and ask the question…does either candidate for president actually align with “fascist policies?”---Sponsored by: Good Ranchers Good Ranchers offers 100% American meat, supporting local ranchers and ensuring quality with no antibiotics. Subscribe today and choose a free add-on—Chicken, Beef, Bacon, or Salmon—for four years, or until the next election. Use my code for $25 off your first box and free express shipping. Secure steakhouse quality at home without the hassle. Get FREE meat add-ons for 4 years: https://go.goodranchers.com/mta---Join our community chat: https://bit.ly/43zQDLNInstagram: www.instagram.com/nickjfreitas/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickFreitasVATwitter: https://twitter.com/NickJFreitasYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NickjfreitasTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@nickfreitas3.0

Virginians pay Larry Sabato's salary and Jeff wonders if there is a conflict of interest if he blocks them?

Larry Sabato likened Trump's MSG rally like the Nazi Rally in the 1930s and Jeff isn't having any of it!

Out of the gate Jeff filets Larry Sabato's Jew Hating Social Media Posts and then cools off a bit chatting with Mike Baum

UVA Professor Dr. Larry Sabato, author of "The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy." Because of his extraordinary promise and untimely death, JFK's star still resonates strongly. On the anniversary of his assassination, celebrated political scientist and analyst Larry J. Sabato-himself a teenager in the early 1960s and inspired by JFK and his presidency-explores the fascinating and powerful influence he has had over five decades on the media, the general public, and especially on each of his nine presidential successors. Original air date 18 October 2013. The book was published on 15 October 2013.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 38: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:50) SPECIAL COMMENT: I have existential doubts about hell. But truly, I now hope there is one and I hope if there isn't one I hope they make one, just for Trump. He did it Saturday in Wisconsin and then just in case you missed it he did it again yesterday in Pennsylvania and guess what? America's news media - when it is has never been more urgently needed, failing, collapsing, cowardly protecting only its own money - America's news media, in its death rattle before Trump extinguishes it, or with its own near-complete lack of courage, it extinguishes itself Trump did it again yesterday in Pennsylvania and the media MISSED IT. This psychopathic, criminally insane narcissist; this damaged, malignant, diseased, dysfunctional, hallucinatory, drooling, demented, reptile-brained, and ultimately and perhaps most importantly, this STUPID slime slandered the mental capacities of the President and Vice President of the United States. And how was that covered by our bleeding, bankrupt, almost dying news media? Like they hoped to be covering Trump in hell. Bloomberg said Trump "sharpened his criticism on border security." The Guardian called these "Harris barbs." Reuters said Trump "escalates harsh rhetoric." On and on and on. I cannot say this more clearly to the political journalists of this nation. The English language is full of… words. Words that actually DESCRIBE what JD Vance once aptly called Trump peddling quote “cultural heroin.” Words that MEASURE his deceit. Words that QUANTIFY his inhumanity. Words that will NOT get you fired and words that will not get your cowering bosses sued. Learn them. Use them. Because if you don't, you will die with me in the Trump camps. ALL of the bleak histories of the dictators of this world include that same chapter. If you cannot summon courage on behalf of your nation or your profession, summon it on behalf of saving yourselves. AND NOW WE MOVE TO CBS NEWS which says no, it will not fact-check the candidates at its Vice Presidential debate tomorrow. Even as Vance devolves into a compulsive or perhaps congenital liar. I have a piece of advice for my old MSNBC colleague and professional friend of 25 years, Co-Moderator Norah O'Donnell. You have nothing to lose and a country to save. Ignore your bosses. Fact-check anyway. Emulate Edward R. Murrow - not Jake F'ing Tapper. B-Block (26:18) POSTSCRIPTS TO THE NEWS: I think I have some insight into the RFK Junior story that everybody else understandably missed. There has been a throwaway line in one account that refers to the contemplation of a "medical leave" for Olivia Nuzzi. I think that's the key to everything. But more importantly, I can finally explain my gratitude to her, and celebrate the great thing she did for me: (34:34) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: Because it's Stevie Day - the anniversary of the day I got my first dog, Stevie (more correctly - the day she adopted me). And finally, FINALLY, I can tell the story without pulling any punches because of course the girlfriend who led me into the world of dogs - Stevie's Mom - is Olivia. C-Block (54:00) POSTSCRIPTS TO THE NEWS, PART II: The saga of the arrival of Stevie rather improbably includes... Rudy Giuliani? And the small matter of the remodeling of my mind and life.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New polls show the race remains tight even as VP Harris continues to improve nationally and in swing states. Plus, the GOP candidate for governor of North Carolina continues his campaign after a report about shocking comments made online. And, Georgia's state election board gets set to vote on new rules that could change how ballots are counted. McKay Coppins, Evan McMorris-Santoro, Larry Sabato, Justin Wolfers, Brendan Greeley, Brian Tyler Cohen, Stuart Stevens, and LaTosha Brown join The 11th Hour this Thursday. 

Larry Sabato is the Founder and Director of the University of Virginia Institute of Politics. There is no better political analyst in the country. Here are the key points he made in today's Bill Press Pod: The 2024 presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is seen as a very close race, with no clear frontrunner. Sabato believes Harris performed well in the first presidential debate, getting under Trump's skin effectively. However, the debate likely only moved the needle slightly in the polls. Sabato is skeptical of polls showing Harris with a comfortable lead, as he believes some Trump supporters are not being honest with pollsters. He points to significant polling misses in recent elections as evidence that the polls cannot be fully trusted. He expresses concern about the reliability of polls in key battleground states like Wisconsin, where polls have significantly underestimated Trump's performance in recent elections. He sees the vice presidential debate as a potential wild card, with Vance potentially struggling to match the performance of Harris's running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. Sabato is critical of Republican members of Congress who have not stood up to Trump, saying they are putting their party's interests ahead of the country.Today urges our listeners to support endangered Senators Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester through ActBlue.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Vice President Harris is preparing for the Democratic National Convention and plans to announce her economic policies this week. Plus, a secret video from Project 2025 demonstrates more on what a second Trump term would look like. And, the FBI is now looking into an attempted hack on both the Trump and Harris Presidential campaign. Susan Glasser, Toluse Olorunnipa, Teddy Schleifer, John Della Volpe, Larry Sabato, Andy Kroll, and Clint Watts join The 11th Hour this Monday.

Political Analyst Larry Sabato revealed that VP Kamala Harris has momentum, reflected in the polls, including the swing states. Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://politicsdoneright.com/newsletter Purchase our Books: As I See It: https://amzn.to/3XpvW5o How To Make America Utopia: https://amzn.to/3VKVFnG It's Worth It: https://amzn.to/3VFByXP Lose Weight And Be Fit Now: https://amzn.to/3xiQK3K Tribulations of an Afro-Latino Caribbean man: https://amzn.to/4c09rbE

School superintendent Richard Woods has reversed his initial decision to deny state funding for a new Advanced Placement African American history curriculum.  On today's episode of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Politically Georgia podcast, state Senator Nikki Merritt joins the AJC's Patricia Murphy, Greg Bluestein and Bill Nigut to discuss the decision to move forward with funding for the program in Georgia's public schools. But first,  Stephen Lawson, a former top aide to Republican Speaker of the Georgia House Jon Burns joins the podcast to talk about the damage Donald Trump's attacks on Governor Brian Kemp may do to party unity and Trump's efforts to win Georgia. Plus, there are indications from election projection experts and a new private poll that Kamala Harris is turning the tide in Georgia's presidential race. The state is now rated a tossup by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Report. Links to today's topics: Trump attack on Brian Kemp opens fresh wounds in GOP party unity Georgia school superintendent reverses course on AP African American history course Sabato Crystal Ball: Georgia back to toss up state Have a question or comment for the show? Call the 24-hour Politically Georgia Podcast Hotline at 770-810-5297. We'll play back your question and answer it during the listener mailbag segment on next Friday's episode.   Listen and subscribe to our podcast for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also tell your smart speaker to “play Politically Georgia podcast.”         Credits  Executive Producer- Shane Backler  Producer- Natalie Mendenhall  Engineer- Shane Backler Editor- Matt Owen Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The market bulls want a Fed rate cut so the rally can keep going. The bears want a cut to prevent a recession. It's the same goal, but with very different views on where we are in this economic cycle. We'll discuss.Plus, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has officially chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Will this choice actually move the polls? We'll speak to Larry Sabato about that and more.

Fed Chair Powell says more progress on inflation is needed, but if the Fed waits for inflation to get to 2% to cut, it's too late. Jefferies' chief market strategist David Zervos joins us with his first take. Plus, we'll get a live report from Milwaukee as the RNC kicks off and UVA's Larry Sabato's reaction to the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump.

On a recent airing of a CNN segment, Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia Center for Politics addressed the stark contrast appearing in the electoral race between sitting President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. He echoed the clear sentiment that the competition is 'no longer close.' Sabato underscored the insufficiency of occasional interviews or rallies to narrow down the expanding gap. Sabato expressed skepticism about the capacity of a single ABC News interview to alter the rapidly shifting political dynamics. 'Halt the hemorrhage,' he suggested, alluding to the noticeable decline in Biden's popularity among voters. The magnitude of this political regression, Sabato pointed out, reflects prominently in the data and surveys, both public and private. The Democratic party needs to come to terms with the reality that the situation is unpredictable and the once close race has quite a significant gap now. The showdown between Biden and Trump shows a definitive lead in favor of Trump. This is the bleak picture that presents itself in the current political landscape. Sabato referenced various polls conducted the previous week, all of which showcased a similar trend - a rare occurrence in the field of polling. 'The standing of Biden, who was seemingly equally matched or perhaps just two points behind Trump, now exhibits a deficit of six points, as unanimously decreed by these polls. This translates to millions of voters,' Sabato highlighted. The UVA professor dismissed the likelihood that a single well-received interview or rally could retrieve the masses of disillusioned voters. This declaration ominously foretells the path that lies ahead for the Biden presidency. Far from ebullitions of excitement, the Presidential race has turned into a struggle for survival for Biden.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elon Musk, the CEO of prominent corporations Tesla, Starlink, and SpaceX, seems to be under the impression that the recent debate between current President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, was more of a theatrical play than a serious political event. Musk voiced his observations on the X platform shortly after the debate, adding his commentary to a post made by billionaire investor David Sacks. He described the presidential contenders as 'talking puppets' and expressed skepticism over the authenticity of the debate. David Sacks originally commented on the debate by criticizing CNN commentators for their apparent lack of loyalty and remorse towards the president. Responding to the commentator's portrayal of Biden, Sacks posted, 'The sight of CNN commentators backstabbing Biden really leaves a distaste. There is no sense of loyalty, nor a hint of remorse. This is simply revolting.' 'This race between Biden and Trump isn't a nail-biter anymore', remarked Larry Sabato, Director at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, during a CNN slot the following day. He ruled out the chances of Biden narrowing the gap with Trump by merely participating in an interview with ABC News or conducting a series of rallies. According to Sabato, President Biden's singular interview isn't enough to amend the situation. His words were clear, 'If anything, [President Biden] should aim to arrest the decline, which has indeed been pretty severe. We have been through several amounts of data, both public and confidential, and it's quite alarming. The Democrats must realize that we're not on steady ground and the race is anything but a close one now. The competition between Trump and Biden has ended.'See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Biden speaks out on Donald Trump's recent criminal conviction, calling the former president a "convicted felon" at a fundraiser. Plus, a presidential executive order imposes new restrictions on migrants seeking asylum in the U.S. And, a look at the potential impact of A.I. on the 2024 presidential election. Jeremy Saland, Hans Nichols, Susan Glasser, Mark McKinnon, Tim Ryan, Larry Sabato, and Josh Tyrangiel join 11th Hour tonight. 

President Biden and Vice President Harris appeal to African-American voters in Philadelphia, UVA's Larry Sabato on effect of Trump hush-money trial verdict and Hunter Biden gun-charge trial on presidential election (10), Sen. Graham (R-SC) visits Israel and says that county will "never have to worry' about U.S. support, Secretary of State Blinken visits Moldova and announces more aid to counter Russia, House Judiciary Subcommittee holds field hearing on border security in North Dakota, interview with Axios' Mimi Montgomery on giant pandas returning to National Zoo in DC. (46) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The prosecution rested its case today in Trump's criminal trial as the defense called its first witness. Plus, the latest on the death of Iran's president and what it could mean for the middle east. And, Trump's remarks on the campaign trail about potentially serving a third term if elected in November. Hugo Lowell, Jeremy Saland, Barbara McQuade, Tim Miller, Jennifer Palmieri, John Della Volpe, Larry Sabato, and Ben Rhodes join.

Donald Trump sues co-founders of his company, Truth Social, alleging they mismanaged the company. In a Florida state court, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. argued that executives Wes Moss and Andy Litinsky made a series of mistakes that resulted in a delay in the company's going public and urged a judge to strip them of their shares. Then, our panel discusses how the new Florida 6-week abortion ban could impact the 2024 election – even if subject to change by voters in November. And the latest on the Israeli Airstrike that killed seven World Central Kitchen workers. Susan Glasser, Larry Sabato, Charlie Sykes, Harry Litman, Maria Teresa Kumar, Michael Steele, and Janti Soeripto join.

 The Supreme Court has decided former president Donald Trump cannot be removed from the ballot in Colorado or in any other state. The case was brought by a group of Colorado voters who challenged Trump's ballot eligibility based on his actions leading up to January 6th and on a clause in the 14th amendment barring former office holders from seeking a new office – if they've engaged in insurrection. Also, the political “lay of the land” ahead of Super Tuesday and where Joe Biden and Donald Trump stand in the 2024 Presidential race. Plus, “No Labels”  worries about missing the window for launching a third-party presidential candidate. Mark Joseph Stern, Ankush Khardori, Suzanne Craig, Mckay Coppins, Larry Sabato, Mark Mckinnon, and Larry Hogan help break it all down.

Larry Sabato is an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation

Chaz Nuttycombe eclipsed Larry Sabato and his crystal ball with the accuracy of his predictions in 2022. In 2023, while finishing his senior year at Virginia Tech, his predictions in every Virginia State legislative race proved 100% accurate. Join David Schild and Adam Belmar for a fascinating conversation about CNanalysis and the campaign insights that matter to PAC Managers in 2024.

The Breakdown is live w/ guests Larry Sabato and Sarah Kendzior On this week's episode of The Breakdown, hosts Tara Setmayer and Rick Wilson are joined by Larry Sabato, NYT best-selling author and political analyst and Sarah Kendzior, author of “Hiding in Plain Sight: The Invention of Donald Trump and the Erosion of America” and co-host of the Gaslit Nation podcast.Watch now, share on social media, and follow The Lincoln Project below. Join the fight at LincolnProject.us! MENTIONED IN THIS EPISODESarah Kendzior's book: “Hiding in Plain Sight: The Invention of Donald Trump and the Erosion of America” – https://amzn.to/3uwimi2 Gaslit Nation podcast – https://apple.co/3J7jGMp FOLLOW Larry SabatoTWITTER: @Larry SabatoFOLLOW LINCOLN PROJECTTWITTER: https://bit.ly/3zwZFva INSTAGRAM: https://bit.ly/31yyrHR FACEBOOK: https://bit.ly/3zCBHhT PODCAST: https://apple.co/3G7zr4L

Kyle Kondik shares his new analysis on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball that compares Trump's approval in 2019 to Biden's approval in 2023, the same point in each presidency. He finds that Biden's lower approval is not driven by a higher level of antipathy from Republicans. Kyle and Carah Ong Whaley also reflect on the state of democracy and the upcoming 2024 elections.  Links in this episode:  Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023

On the latest Walker Webcast, we welcomed back one of the nation's most respected political analysts, Director and Founder of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, Editor in Chief of Sabato's Crystal Ball, and bestselling author of more than twenty books, Larry Sabato. Since November marked the 60th anniversary of the JFK assassination, Larry and Willy discussed his book The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy, including conspiracy theories, revelations, and Kennedy's legacy. They also discussed the latest developments in the presidential race, and you won't want to miss what Larry is forecasting. Watch or listen to the replay.   If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions.   

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl joins Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato to discuss his new book, Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Karl offers new insights and reporting in his third book on Donald Trump's presidency and its aftermath with implications if he were to return for a second term.

Opening Monologues. Contemplating the greatest political comeback in American history. Trump Victory 2024 looking increasingly likely. CBS News says the Establishment knows and is “nervous," while Trump voters inspired and motivated and ready to roll. Latest NYT/Siena poll has Trump well ahead of Biden in five of six swing states. Neurotics Bill Kristol and Larry Sabato respond with full fright. Ah yes, those 91 counts. Meanwhile, notes on the nothing-burger Gov. Reynolds nod for DeSantis in Iowa. RGA coercion? Thinking Cameron has a chance in Kentucky. Plus, talking Stoic Marcus Aurelius. Overcoming obstacles, and how the impediments of life can become the way through life. Family piano lessons and Burgmuller's Storm. With Great Listener Calls.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Download our free guide on 5 ways to take action!In this episode, Grace Panetta, a political reporter at The 19th, joins Kyle Kondik, Carah Ong Whaley and Kylie Holzman to discuss several key issues for the 2024 election, including media coverage of women candidates, voter turnout, dramatic shifts in election law landscape, and ongoing threats to democracy posed by election denialism. Also, in this episode, Kyle discusses his new analysis on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball about how the most populous counties versus the least populous counties have voted in presidential elections from 1996-2020. In 1996, Bill Clinton won both the most (by 15.7 percentage points) and least populous counties (1.8 point margin). That means the difference between the two was 13.9 points. By 2020, the gap between the most vs. least populous counties was 39.2 points. Links in this episodeHow the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two by Kyle KondikThe 19th articles by Grace PanettaNikki Haley's Time for Choosing by Tim AlbertaThe Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024Additional InformationThe Democracy Group listener surveyPolitics is Everything PodcastMore shows from The Democracy Group

In this episode, Grace Panetta, a political reporter at The 19th, joins Kyle Kondik, Carah Ong Whaley and Kylie Holzman to discuss several key issues for the 2024 election, including media coverage of women candidates, voter turnout, dramatic shifts in election law landscape, and ongoing threats to democracy posed by election denialism.  Also, in this episode, Kyle discusses his new analysis on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball about how the most populous counties versus the least populous counties have voted in presidential elections from 1996-2020. In 1996, Bill Clinton won both the most (by 15.7 percentage points) and least populous counties (1.8 point margin). That means the difference between the two was 13.9 points. By 2020, the gap between the most vs. least populous counties was 39.2 points.  Links in this episode How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two by Kyle Kondik The 19th articles by Grace Panetta Nikki Haley's Time for Choosing by Tim Alberta  The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024

Bill talks with one of the most astute political scientists and commentators in the business, Larry Sabato, the founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He's the author of the Crystal Ball newsletter which is free and you can sign up here. In the podcast, Sabato discussed the upcoming political season, suggesting that if the election were held today, it would likely be a rematch between Trump and Biden. However, he noted that the legal system and Biden's health could impact this. Sabato also discussed the potential impact of Trump's legal issues on his campaign, suggesting that while they could conflict with his campaign schedule, they could also help him raise more money. He also discussed the potential impact of the Dobbs decision on abortion rights on the election, suggesting it could be a powerful issue for Democrats. Sabato also criticized the current state of politics, noting that there is no longer a governing interim between elections and that politicians are constantly campaigning.Today Bill highlights the work of Act Blue, your one-stop shop for donating to any democratic candidate. Go to ActBlue.com, choose your candidate and give what you can. Thanks. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Last Tuesday, Donald Trump said he had received a letter suggesting he was about to be indicted by special counsel Jack Smith in connection with the criminal investigation into the Capitol riot on 6 January 2021. It would be his third criminal indictment. Jonathan Freedland asks Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, if the pile of indictments could grow too large even for Trump – and his voters. Plus: who is Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia? If Republicans do decide Trump is too badly damaged, might they turn to him?

On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he had received a letter suggesting he was about to be indicted by special counsel Jack Smith in connection with the criminal investigation into the Capitol riot on 6 January 2021. It would be his third criminal indictment. Jonathan Freedland asks Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, if the pile of indictments could grow too large even for Trump – and his voters. Plus: who is Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia? If Republicans do decide Trump is too badly damaged, might they turn to him?

In the final part of Governor Doug Wilder with Larry Sabato, they discuss the upcoming presidential election and some of the predictions they have and how it may play out. 

Former Virginia Governor, Richmond Mayor, Civil Rights trailblazer & national treasure L. Douglas Wilder fills in for Jeff and has an extended interview with Dr. Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia, as well as his own thoughts on both local & national politics while taking phone calls from local listeners eager to talk to him. 

In part two of the interview with Larry Sabato, Governor Wilder discusses the recent controversies surrounding VCU and the large amounts of money the university has spent without anything to show for it.   

Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and founder and director of the Center for Politics, Larry Sabato joins former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder as they talk about differences in running from politics in the past and today. 

You almost certainly know that, for decades, Stu Rothenberg and his Rothenberg Political Report (now Inside Elections) penned among the most influential political analysis in Washington. But you probably don't know the origin story...his initial academic career track, how he cut his political teeth at the conservative Heritage Foundation, and what led to launching his own newsletter. In this conversation, we talk through all of that plus his most memorable interactions with candidates, biggest surprises, savviest politicians, and when he knew it was time to pass the newsletter baton to his partner Nathan Gonzales. IN THIS EPISODEStu grows up in a family of Rockefeller Republicans in Central Park West Manhattan…Stu's growing interest in politics and initial career trajectory to become an academic…How Stu's path diverted from the academic track to join the political operation of the conservative Heritage Foundation…Stu's tutelage under conservative political icon Paul Weyrich…What led to launching the Rothenberg Report newsletter…Stu's early intersection with fellow newsletter groundbreaker Charlie Cook…Stu's memories from “candidate interviews” with Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, and Barack Obama…Stu on the single biggest surprising result in his decades as a political observer…Stu talks some of the smartest political minds in Congress & the one committee chair who was a “giant pain in the ass”…The backstory behind a favorite Rothenberg column “For the Thousandth Time, Don't Call It a Push Poll”…Stu's memorable 2006 meeting with then-Vice President Dick Cheney…How Stu handled passing the torch of the Rothenberg Report to Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales…AND The Almanac of American Politics, Morton Blackwell, Bill Bradley, Sherry Boehlert, Mary Bono, Sonny Bono, William Buckley, Bucknell University, CNN, CSX, Canadian-American regional integration, the Club for Growth, Colby College, complicated conservatives, Ted Cruz, Al D'Amato, Mitch Daniels, Tom Davis, David Dewhurst, egomaniacs, Rollie Fingers, Charles Franklin, the Free Congress Research and Education Foundation, Mark French, Milton Friedman, Martin Frost, The Greenbrier, Nikki Haley, Tom Harkin, Peter Hart, Friedrich Hayek, Blair Hull, “It's Only Politics”, Jan Plans, Jacob Javits, Roger Jepsen, Tommy John, Ben Jones, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Kenneth Keating, Harmon Killebrew, Leading Authorities, Louis Lefkowitz, Jon Lerner, John Lindsay, Juan Marichal, Marxist feminists, John McCain, Joe McLean, Ed Muskie, NYU, Lindsey Nelson, Frank Newport, Richard Nixon, George Pataki, political goo, Walter Rich, Roll Call, Jack Ryan, Larry Sabato, sewage trolls, Casey Stengel, Inez Tenenbaum, total losers, Donald Trump, UCONN, Amy Walter…& more!

Apparently our coverage and role in getting Virginia out of E.R.I.C. was a big enough deal to get the left to call on Larry Sabato to trash us in the press! Also, listeners worried about debt ceiling talks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on America Changed Forever, host Jeff Pegues examines the historic indictment of former President Trump with an array of experts, discussing how Trump's popularity with his base increased because of the actions of New York County District Attorney Alvin Bragg, what effect the indictments might have on other pending investigations, and how history may regard the former President if he is found guilty. Guests include historian Larry Sabato, Former Senate Legal Counsel Jonathan Winer, and The Atlantic Journalist Tom Nichols.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Political forecaster Logan Phillips had the 2022 election cycle's most accurate projections. His website, RacetotheWH.com, hosts all of his models - including his recently-released 2024 White House and Senate polling trackers. In this discussion, Logan talks his time as an Obama White House intern, his path to political modeling, recapping his hyper-accurate 2022 models that came within 1 seat of anticipating the GOP's 222-213 House majority, and gives a nuts-and-bolts Modeling 101 tutorial of what goes into forecasting and how he thinks about the field.IN THIS EPISODELogan's stint as a White House intern for President Obama…How Logan gravitated to the field of political modeling…Logan breaks down what goes into a political model…Logan compares his approach to 538…Logan talks lessons learned during the 2020 elections…Logan breaks down how his model fared in 2022…Logan talks the differences between forecasting Democratic versus Republican primaries…Logan's take on whether Republican polling intentionally “flooded the zone” to influence political modeling…Logan's big surprises of 2022…Logan talks the DeSantis factor in Florida…Logan's initial thoughts on modeling the 2024 Presidential, both Biden vs. Trump and Biden vs. DeSantis… AND American Institute of Architects, David Axelrod, Charlie Baker, Mandela Barnes, Joe Biden, Lauren Boebert, George HW Bush, butterfly effects, Hillary Clinton, Susan Collins, Dwight Eisenhower, Election Twitter, Emerson Polling, Excel, Adam Frisch, Google trends, Kathy Hochul, hope and change, impostor syndrome, Laksyha Jain, January 6th, Karine Jean-Pierre, Ron Johnson, Marcy Kaptur, John Kasich, Brian Kemp, Kari Lake, Al Lawson, lower-priority initiations, JR Majewski, Doug Mastriano, Cecilia Nunez, Dr. Oz, David Perdue, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, QAnon, Rasmussen, Ronald Reagan, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Tim Ryan, Larry Sabato, Nate Silver, Split Ticket, Adlai Stevenson, Trafalgar Polling, Harry Truman, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Wikipedia & more!

EPISODE 72: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:45) OH GOD I so wanted Trump to declare his candidacy last night. He was THISCLOSE to doing it at his fascist rally in Ohio and thus snatching defeat for the Republicans from the jaws of victory, like he did in Georgia. But somebody got to him! (3:46) Whatever happens today, the media is doing everything it can to stick to the "Red Wave" narrative: Their polls all indicate Democratic leads in the Generic Congressional Ballot so what did Politico, Yahoo, and Reuters do? THEY DISMISSED THEIR OWN POLLS AS OUTLIERS. It all underscores the real media narrative: The media corporations are sucking up to the fascists (8:30) Last night, the Republicans gave away the next narrative: any election undecided by Wednesday morning has been fixed by the Democrats (10:48) Oh by the way, a key member of Russia's 2016 Conspiracy with Trump confessed to interfering in the election (11:45) And Elon Musk tweeted more Nazi names and six months after saying "for Twitter to deserve public trust it must be politically neutral" he told his 115,000,000 followers they should vote Republican. Oh and he's also talking about putting all of Twitter behind a paywall.  B-Block (16:40) EVERY DOG HAS ITS DAY: Ace has been reserved! Today it's Angie, in Brooklyn (17:33) POSTSCRIPTS TO THE NEWS: Bannon incarceration delayed, Ted Cruz hit by a White Claw and Texas police actually just don't stand there (19:24) IN SPORTS: Check with me Monday after new Coach Saturday makes his debut Sunday; It's the strangest NFL coaching move since Rock Island fired its coach mid-game in 1921. Baseball free agent news and the new Veterans' Hall of Fame Ballot is out: McGriff, Murphy, Mattingly, four roiders, one jackass - where's Keith Hernandez? (23:27) Brit "Trash OnThe Street" Hume and CNN's New Morning Show, called "Fascists? Please Let Us Live!" are no match for the all-time champion of Conventional Political Lack of Wisdom and Groupthink: Chris Cillizza with an all-time great column, telling History Teacher Jim Clyburn he doesn't understand history. C-Block (34:00) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: The day in 1981 the disc jockey on the top New York radio station tried to kill me and then get me fired for daring to criticize "his" New York Giants on his show. The saga of Ted Brown and "he won't remember that either" (49:55) Plus, because it was handy, a complete sportscast from December 30, 1981, and 22-year old me doing an entire sportscast on WNEW Radio in New York, complete with the latest Wayne Gretzky news (and Ted Brown).See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Willy welcomes Dr. Larry Sabato. He is a political scientist, political analyst, and the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia. He is the founder and director of the university's Center for Politics, which publishes Sabato's Ball, his online newsletter where he writes electoral predictions and analysis. Dr. Larry Sabato begins by discussing remaining nonpartisan in an increasingly divisive environment. He is only interested in picking the winners and claims to have a good idea of where the upcoming results are going. He aims to get people involved and excited about politics. Research done by the Center of Politics interviewed 1,000 Donald Trump supporters and 1,000 Joe Biden supporters, which resulted in 51% of Trump supporters believing that Democratic states should secede from the union, and 42% of Biden supporters wish the same for Republican states. Nowadays, people feel strongly about their campaigns that even some Americans don't believe that Biden was legitimately elected despite zero evidence of fraud. People think they're entitled to facts and opinions in a no-facts era. Dr. Sabato calls for returning to basics and the civic education of young people. Although existing systems work, Dr. Sabato recommends voting on paper to eliminate questioning. Having computers with the Internet creates doubts and is at risk of hacking. It's difficult for a third party to emerge even though it can change political dynamics. The two major parties comprise most of Congress and wouldn't want a smaller slice of the pie. Gerrymandering is a big issue, with Democrats in Virginia making decisions that, in the end, favored Republicans. Dr. Sabato talks about open primaries where people vote for four candidates in order, and each candidate receives a certain number of votes based on how high they are ranked. This system can produce centrist results, and Dr. Sabato is open to this reform. Despite Donald Trump receiving a larger turnout than usual, Dr. Sabato still hopes more people will be voting this year. Moving on to the gubernatorial elections, he describes how "hypocrisy is the lifeblood of politics." He predicts Brian Kemp winning even without a runoff. He explains how split-ticket results are rare, as their parties determine 90% of voters. He says we shouldn't believe the Gallup polls, and split ticketing mainly happened in the 70s. An entirely Republican sweep isn't possible, one of the reasons being the overturning of Roe v. Wade. He foresees Republicans winning Oregon, Wisconsin, and Kansas. Although Massachusetts and Maryland are Republican, Dr. Sabato thinks they will lose in a landslide. He believes that Sonny Perdue leaning heavily in Trump's direction was a mistake that ended his career. He explains how the Republican party is divided into two halves: one is entirely dedicated to Trump, and the other is much more conservative than Larry Hogan. He predicts Jared Polis is not running against Biden, but reruns are possible. It's also expected that Kevin McCarthy will win as a speaker. He describes how every president will experience one or both Houses of Congress controlled by the other party, but veto power will be exercised to counter it.

On this week's episode of "America: Changed Forever" with CBS News correspondent Jeff Pegues, a look at the final stretch leading to the midterm elections with Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Dahlia Lithwick, senior editor at Slate, discusses the affirmative action case before the Supreme Court, as as well as how Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is carving out a space for herself amongst the Court. Author Tanya Holland discusses her new book, "Tanya Holland's California Soul: Recipes from a Culinary Journey West".See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this bonus episode, two segments from C-SPAN's Washington Journal program with people who are closely following the midterm elections. First, Amy Walter, publisher and editor of the Cook Political Report, and then Larry Sabato Director of UVA's Center for Politics. Hear more interviews from C-SPAN's Washington Journal program on our website at C-SPAN.org, on the C-SPAN Now App, or on C-SPAN television…live every morning from 7 to 10amET.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Lance Tarrance is one of the founding fathers of modern political polling. In this conversation, he talks what drew him into the world of GOP politics, an inflection point working at the US Census Bureau, going to work for Ronald Reagan's pollster, then opening up his own firm The Tarrance Group. Lance goes deep on several of his interesting races...including beating Bill Clinton in his first gubernatorial re-elect in 1980, the upset Senate win of Mitch McConnell in 1984, his involvement in the California gubernatorial race that gave rise to the so-called “Bradley Effect”, his analysis predicting the rise of a Donald Trump-type candidate & many great stories and insights from his incredible career in politics.IN THIS EPISODE…Barry Goldwater inspires Lance to take his career in a dramatically different direction than he'd planned…Lance helps disrupt Hubert Humphrey in the '68 Nixon campaign…How working for the US Census Bureau changed Lance's life…Lance enters the world of political polling, working with Regan pollster Dick Wirthlin…Lance makes a professional bet on partisan realignment in the South & Sun Belt…The crosstabs that Lance used to help Republicans take the South…Lance helps engineer the defeat of Governor Bill Clinton in his 1980 re-election…Lance's key role handling the polling for Mitch McConnell's 1984 upset Senate win…The story behind the most famous US Senate ad ever for McConnell's '84 race…Lance elects a Republican Governor of California in 1982 amidst the so-called “Bradley Effect”…Lance's prescient writing and analysis that (partially) anticipated the rise of Donald Trump…Lance on what makes an effective pollster…AND academic treatises, John Adams, Roger Ailes, American University, the American Voter Model, backwoods Kentucky, Vince Barabba, Blue Dogs, Bluetick hounds, Tom Bradley, Ron Brownstein, CVS pharmacies, Charlie Cannell, Jimmy Carter, Jack Casserly, the Center for Political Studies, Hillary Clinton, John Connolly, John Sherman Cooper, Mario Cuomo, Dallas-ites, George Deukmejian, Walt DeVries, Eastman Kodak, Tom Edsall, esprit d 'corps, Eureka, Merv Field, flanking moves, GW, Georgetown, Ed Goeas, the Harvard Kennedy School, Hee Haw, Stephan Helgesen, Dee Huddleston, Hubert Humphrey, ivory towers, Andrew Jackson, Thomas Jefferson, Lyndon Johnson, Robert Kennedy, Les Kish, Ed Koch, lone wolves, Rocky Marciano, Marielitos, Larry McCarthy, Gale McGee, George McGovern, mea culpa advertising, monocrats, Dick Morris, outsider revolutions, Charles Percy, Ross Perot, Kevin Phillips, pick-up truck license fees, political engineering, port-o-toilets, Sam Rayburn, the RGA, the RNC, Reagan Democrats, Nelson Rockefeller, Larry Sabato, Hugh Scott, Sargent Shriver, the Southern Strategy, Spencer Roberts, Mitt Romney, the Tea Party, technocrats, Bob Teeter, three-piece suits, ticket-splitting, tough dudes, John Tower, toxic waste sites, University of Arkansas, University of Michigan, Malcolm Wallop, Washington & Lee, Frank White, Dick Wirthlin…& more! 

RenMac highlights Larry Sabato's higher than consensus' odds of R's taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance of claims data, an historical indication of peaking 10yr yields and Pavlick's travel suspiciously coinciding w/ PSU schedule.

Sean McElwee is the Founding Executive Director of Data for Progress, a progressive polling and think tank operation shaking up the way Democrats utilize data to better message and implement their priorities. Sean talks his roots as a military kid in an evangelical household, his circuitous path to working in progressive politics, the origin and evolution of Data for Progress, and how he thinks about some of the big questions facing those who work in politics. IN THIS EPISODE….Sean grows up in an evangelical military family in Connecticut…What drew Sean toward libertarianism early and what made him move away from it…The threads of evangelical Christianity that still endure in Sean's politics…Sean's riff on whether candidates should use profanity…Sean talks the importance of a candidate's “vibes” and “juice”…The famous broadcaster Sean is friendly with…Sean talks the role think-tanks play in American politics…Sean talks his time leading the “Abolish ICE” effort…Sean tells the story behind the founding of Data for Progress…Sean on his friendship with prominent data scient David Shor and where they disagree…Sean's theory on why people should gamble more on prediction markets…Sean talks his big wins and some losses on the political prediction markets…Sean's take on the political appeal of John Fetterman…How Sean thinks about the role of Independent Expenditures…The Republican politicians whose communications impress Sean...Sean's advice on the campaigns Democrats should run in 2022…What Sean looks for when he's hiring at Data for Progress…Sean's strangest work habits… AND…the 80-50 rule, 90% agendas, AOC, John Anzalone, automatic voter registration, Richard Blumenthal, books and stuff, Jamaal Bowman, Katie Britt, Mo Brooks, Jimmy Carter, CBS News, chimeras, Jim Clyburn, Susan Collins, Joe Courtney, Henry Cuellar, Defund the Police, Demos, Doug Ducey, elite actors, e-mailing yourself, Elliot Engel, John Fetterman, Brian Fitzpatrick, Rich Funke, Mike Garcia, Jared Golden, governing moments, happy hours, heuristics, Jim Himes, Boris Johnson, Mondaire Jones, John Katko, Brian Kemp, Alexander Lamis, Adam Laxalt, David McKinley, messaging bills, Markwayne Mullin, multi-level regression, Chris Murphy, neoliberalism, New York Times factchecks, Barack Obama, old guy Instagrams, Dr. Oz, Ron Paul, pivotal electoral voters, plastic bag bans, Jef Pollock, popularism, Predict It, Scott Pruitt, Reason Magazine, Robocop, Run for Something, Larry Sabato, SPSS, Chuck Schumer, sex scenes, simulacrums, John Stossel, terrain advantages, Title 42, Ritche Torres, Donald Trump, Nina Turner, woke staffers, Ron Wyden, YouGov, & more!