Podcast appearances and mentions of byron king

Tom welcomes back geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on various aspect of the mining industry and the impacts of tariffs. They touch upon the fact that central banks are buying large amounts of gold and the impact this has on gold prices. They also mention the neglect of mining shares in comparison to the rise in gold prices, creating opportunities for investors. They also discuss the current mining cycle and how companies are reporting good earnings due to high gold prices. Byron suggests investors look for companies with assets, a strong management team, and resources worth exploring further. He mentions several examples of promising companies and opportunities within the gold space, as well as mentioning his own experiences at mining conferences. Additionally, Byron gives us his thoughts on the global market situation and how tariffs may affect various industries and economies. Byron encourages listeners to explore more about hard assets and investing in metals and energy for potential opportunities and growth. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - First 100 Days & Gold4:35 - Gold, Uncertainty & Price10:45 - Trump Taxes & Deficits17:57 - W. Vs E. Gold Monetization25:44 - China & Trade War Options35:17 - Trump Greenland & Canada44:44 - Underinvestment in Mining55:00 - Miner Margins & Sentiment1:02:43 - Opinions at Conferences1:09:23 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/ Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won't find anywhere else. His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC's Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS's NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law. In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world's best mining investment opportunities. Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends. His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work.

“Gold is a reminder that the U.S. government runs a dishonest money system,” says Byron King, editor at Paradigm Press Group. In an interview with Daniela Cambone, King breaks down the surging global demand for gold—not driven by conspiracy theories, but by a growing lack of trust in the U.S. dollar. As countries watched the West freeze Russian assets during the Ukraine conflict, many began rethinking the safety of holding dollar-denominated reserves. He also explains why, in a world where currencies are backed by promises, gold stands alone as real, independent wealth. “Gold is nobody else's liability.” Watch now to find out why King believes now is the time to own gold."

  Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show! It was s busy week at the New Orleans Investment Conference. We will have interviews from the...

Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show! It was s busy week at the New Orleans Investment Conference. We will have interviews from the show floor released throughout next week so be sure to check the website and your podcast player to stay up to date.   This weekend's show is focused on investing in commodities and commodity stocks. The metals of focus are gold, uranium, oil and natural gas.   Thank you to all of your who swung by our booth this week. It was great to connect and hear your thoughts on the conference.   Segment 1 & 2 - Byron King, Geologist and writer at the Paradigm Press Group, joins me from the floor of the New Orleans Investment Conference to discuss the gold sector's current state, highlighting its performance and miners' challenges. He shares insights on uranium's potential, backed by bipartisan support in the U.S. Bryan also provides stock recommendations in the gold and uranium sectors. Click here to visit the Paradigm Press Group website. Segment 3 and 4 - Shift focus to the oil and nat gas sectors, Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group wraps up the show by sharing his insights on the current oil price trends, the potential impact of Trump's policies, and the future of natural gas pricing. Additionally, Dan provides a detailed analysis of Ovintiv's (NYSE:OVV) recent acquisitions and sales, and discusses the broader landscape of M&A activities in the industry. Click here to visit the Energy Prospectus Group website for more energy market and stock analysis.  

Tom welcomes a new guest, geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on the culture of deception and misdirection in society. Byron, an Ivy League-educated geologist and retired U.S. Navy officer, shares his thoughts on society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to the loss of clear enemies post-Cold War and the emergence of self-proclaimed elites with skewed realities. The conversation covers various topics including lawfare, its application against political adversaries, and the expansion of heightened surveillance and arrests. They also discuss the geopolitical conflicts affecting the world, with implications for the US and Canada, and the historical context of the US dollar's dominance in global trade and its role in inflation. Byron expresses concern over potential consequences if the US faces a crisis managing these conflicts, which could result in economic instability and further inflation. They disucss the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy on the economy and gold market, as well as the increasing disparity between asset-owning versus non-asset-owning populations. Byron also explores the undervaluation of mining industries, particularly those producing rare earth elements, due to cultural factors such as reliance on Chinese producers with low costs. Central banks' increased gold buying, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical events is also discussed. The world will continue to need base metals like high-grade copper which will necessitate the mining of lower-grade ores and increased prices. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Reality & Distortions7:49 - Lawfare & Politics13:23 - Truth, Media, & Events21:15 - Honest Money & Living Well27:24 - The West & Inflation37:38 - Golden Awareness42:57 - Fed's Direction Now45:30 - Manufacturing & Rural54:05 - EV Demand & Rare Earths1:00:06 - Mines & Timelines1:07:19 - Conference Takeaways1:14:28 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to loss of clear enemies and rise of self-appointed elites. Increased demand for gold due to global de-dollarization and geopolitical conflicts, leading to potential economic instability. The undervaluation of mining industries and the importance of investing in reputable companies despite political influences. Guest Links:Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/ Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won't find anywhere else. His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC's Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS's NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law. In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world's best mining investment opportunities. Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends. His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work.

In this episode, I sit down with Byron King - former VP for learning and teaching at the Boys' Prep, now working at Study Hall, an AI EdTech company. In this episode we talk about the specifics of what we have been up to from 2023 to 2024 when it comes to AI innovation in the classroom and sharing knowledge and best practice amongst all staff.

In this third and final episode in our AI series, I sit down with Byron King (former VP from the Boy's Prep, now working at Study Hall, an EdTech AI company), and we discuss our predictions for the future of education with AI. Some of these ideas are within grasp and others are a decade, if not more, away; but one thing is for sure, education is changing on the horizon and it is an exciting journey ahead.

With gold and silver correcting 3% and 5.5% today respectively we had to discuss what is causing this move and what it means for the longer term bull market narrative.    Byron King, Geologist and writer with the Paradigm Press Group joins us to discuss today's pullback. Byron is very clear in thinking this is is a natural correction after a very strong uptrend over the past almost 2 months.    We also discuss the action in gold and silver stocks. While many of the precious metals stocks have rebounded over the past 2 months pretty much the whole sector is a long way from all time highs. We focus on the stocks that have been moving and ask how long it'll take for money to filter to all the stocks especially the juniors.   Click here to visit the Paradigm Press Group website to keep up to date with Byron. 

Byron King, Geologist and writer for the Paradigm Group, joins us to recap his time at PDAC earlier this month, including his outlook for a range of metals. We mainly stick to gold, copper and uranium, all of which Byron is bullish on moving forward.   On the stock front, Byron shares details on 4 companies he likes. Stillwater Critical Minerals, Metallic Metals, Granite Creek Copper, and Energy Fuels. All of the companies are focused on different commodities and each has catalysts this year.   Click here to visit the Paradigm Group website to stay up to date with Byron.

Byron King, geologist and writer with the Paradigm Press, joins us to discuss the junior precious metals and base metals resource stocks struggling to outpace dilution with value creation, and why he still remains very constructive on the energy sector.     We start off pointing out that many companies have raised money over the last 2 years, gone out and executed on work programs delivering on exactly what they guided they would and that this value creation was not given hardly any value by the market.  As investors have continued to shrug off most resource expansion and economic studies or development milestones, many companies have been forced to pare back spends and work programs, and have shifted back more towards discovery drilling once again.    We wrap up with the energy sector and how the global economic is not going to be phasing out oil, nat gas, coal, nuclear, in place of renewable energy and batteries any time soon, but rather we are going to need all the energy inputs to feed the growing demand.  For these reasons he is still very bullish on the energy stocks.    Click here to visit the Paradigm Press website to keep up to date with Byron.

Insights with NetSupport – Bett 2024 edition: Digital literacy and A.I., with Byron KingWelcome to this special Bett 2024 episode of 'Insights with NetSupport'!In this interview, Byron King, Deputy Head Teacher at Surbiton High Boys' Preparatory School, talks to NetSupport's Head of Education, Mark Anderson, about digital literacy and the effects of A.I. on education.0:00 Introduction0:54 How did you come to be in the role you are today?1:53 AI: is it all it's cracked up to be?3:19 How can we ensure students use AI safely?5:04 Digital literacy and AI7:36 Is literacy or oracy more important for prompt drafting?11:06 Equity of access12:25 Wrap-up Connect with ByronX: @kingcantsingLinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/byronkingjhbSubstack: https://byronking.substack.com/   Discover more InsightsFor more Insights and many more useful videos, please subscribe to the NetSupport YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/netsupport or subscribe at: https://www.netsupportsoftware.com/subscribe/Also, listen to more podcasts on NetSupport Radio! https://netsupportradio.beezer.com/listen-back    

Byron King, Geologist and writer with the Paradigm Group, joins us to recap his time at the recent resource investment conferences in Vancouver last week. We also focus on the Tombstone Gold Belt in the Yukon. This is the area that Victoria Gold, Snowline Gold, Banyan Gold, Sitka Gold and Rackla Metals are all active in. While Byron was not seeing any new companies and stories at the conference he points to the companies he thinks are doing the best work to advance their projects.   Click here to visit the Paradigm Group website to keep up to date with Byron.

Byron King, Geologist and writer at Paradigm Group alongside Jim Rickards, joins me to focus on the oil and lithium markets.   Starting with oil, Byron outlines why he thinks next year's price will be driven by new OPEC countries. He balances this out with 2024 being an election year in the US.   On the lithium front, we focus on the impact of ExxonMobil entering the sector with the announcement that the Company will be developing a DLE technology. to have a major company the status of Exxon should have a major impact on the market.

Byron King, Writer for Paradigm Press and the Strategic Investor newsletter with Jim Rickards, joins us to share his takeaways from the New Orleans Investment Conference. We discuss the state of the gold and uranium markets and how he sees the global macro picture contributing to key trends. We then move onto a couple stocks in the gold and uranium sectors that Byron likes and recently attended site visits. These stocks include Snowline Gold and Energy Fuels.   Click here to visit the Paradigm Press website to follow along with Byron's research on resource stocks.

HRRN's Breeders Cup Countdown Presented by Hill ‘n' Dale at Xalalpa -  Thursday, November 2, 2023. Bobby Neuman and Jude Feld broadcast live from trackside at Santa Anita and preview the 2023 Breeders' Cup World Championships. Featuring special guests Bernie Sams, Jeff Siegel, Ned Toffey, Rusty Arnold, Conrad Bandaroff and Byron King 

HRRN LISTENERS GET $10 INSTANTLY WHEN SIGNING UP FOR A NEW AMWAGER ACCOUNT. SEE DETAILS AT https://link.amwager.com/hrrn The AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview. Bobby Neuman and Byron King handicap the weekend's biggest stakes races including the G3 Iselin, Sweet Briar Too, G2 King Edward, G2 Lake Placid, G1 Alabama, G1 Del Mar Oaks, G3 Bold Venture, G2 Dance Smartly, King's Plate, Bolton Landing, Sorority, and Solana Beach, plus give you the AmWager "Best Bet". 

HRRN LISTENERS GET $10 INSTANTLY WHEN SIGNING UP FOR A NEW AMWAGER ACCOUNT. SEE DETAILS AT https://link.amwager.com/hrrn The AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview. Bobby Neuman and Byron King handicap the weekend's biggest stakes races including the Galway, G2 Saratoga Special, G1 Fourstardave, G2 Secretariat, G1 Beverly D, G1 Arlington Million, G2 Sorrento, G2 Yellow Ribbon, G3 Best Pal, Ellis Park Derby, Longacres Mile, and Mahony, plus give you the AmWager "Best Bet". 

HRRN LISTENERS GET $10 INSTANTLY WHEN SIGNING UP FOR A NEW AMWAGER ACCOUNT. SEE DETAILS AT https://link.amwager.com/hrrn The AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview. Bobby Neuman and Byron King handicap the weekend's biggest stakes races including the, G3 Troy, Lure, G1 Test, G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, G1 Whitney, California Dreamin, G1 Clement Hirsch, G3 La Jolla, G3 Adirondack, G3 Pucker Up, G3 West Virginia Governors, and G3 West Virginia Derby, plus give you the AmWager "Best Bet". 

HRRN's Brisnet.com Call-in Show, hosted by Bobby Neuman and Byron King.

HRRN LISTENERS GET $10 INSTANTLY WHEN SIGNING UP FOR A NEW AMWAGER ACCOUNT. SEE DETAILS AT https://link.amwager.com/hrrn The AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview. Bobby Neuman and Byron King handicap the weekend's biggest stakes races including the G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt, G2 Jim Dandy, De Francis Dash, G2 San Diego, G1 Bing Crosby, G2 Seagram Cup, G3 Monmouth Oaks, Tyro, G2 Bowling Green, Lake Superior, Thunder Bay, and G2 Eddie Read, plus give you the AmWager "Best Bet". 

HRRN LISTENERS GET $10 INSTANTLY WHEN SIGNING UP FOR A NEW AMWAGER ACCOUNT. SEE DETAILS AT https://link.amwager.com/hrrn The AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview. Bobby Neuman and Byron King handicap the weekend's biggest stakes races including the G3 Matchmaker, G3 Monmouth Cup, G3 Molly Pitcher, G1 United Nations, G1 Haskell, G2 San Clemente, G3 Caress, G1 CCA Oaks, G3 Ontario Colleen, G3 Hendrie, G2 Shuvee, G3 Trillium, and G2 Connaught Cup, plus give you the AmWager "Best Bet". 

HRRN's Brisnet.com Call-in Show, hosted by Bobby Neuman and Byron King.

The AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview. Bobby Neuman and Byron King handicap the weekend's biggest stakes races including G2 Bed o' Roses, Monomoy Girl, Chorleywood, Pegasus, G3 Eatontown,  G3 Salvator Mile, G3 Monmouth, NYSS Spectacular Bid, NYSS Cupecoy's Joy, Possibly Perfect, G3 San Juan Capistrano and Get Serious plus give you the AmWager "Best Bet".

HRRN's Brisnet.com Call-in Show, hosted by Bobby Neuman and Byron King.

Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano looks back on a Derby day he'll never forget, trainer Brendan Walsh talks about his win in the Kentucky Oaks and Blood-Horse writer Byron King looks ahead to the Preakness. Plus, Vance Hanson provides this week's TwinSpires Triple Play, Kurt Becker takes you on a Stroll Through Racing History presented by Keeneland, Dale Romans & Tim Wilkin debate the sports hottest topics on 'I Ask, They Answer' presented by the University of Louisville Equine Industry Program and we recognize another Unsung Hero presented by Woodbine Entertainment.

Presented by TwinSpires Trainer Brad Cox discusses his Oaks & Derby contenders, Ramiro Restrepo talks about his KY Derby hopeful Mage, and Byron King from Blood-Horse previews his latest Derby Dozen. Plus, Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey remembers the late Ogden Phipps, Woodbine CEO Jim Lawson looks ahead to opening day of the 2023 thoroughbred meet,  Dale Romans & Tim Wilkin debate the week's hottest topics on 'I Ask, They Answer' presented by the University of Louisville Equine Industry Program, Scott Shapiro provides this week's TwinSpires Triple Play, Kurt Becker takes you on his weekly Stroll Through Racing History presented by Keeneland, and Calling All Three-Year-Olds with Bobby Neuman presented by Spendthrift 

Bobby Neuman and Byron King handicap the weekend's biggest stakes races including G3 Canadian Turf, G3 Herecomesthebreide, G2 GP Mile, G3 Honey Fox, G2 Davona Dale, G2 Mac Diarmida, G2 Fountain of Youth, G2 Buena Vista, G2 San Felipe, G1 Kilroe Mile, G1 SA Handicap, G3 Tom Fool, G3 Gotham, and John Battaglia Memorial, plus, give you the weekend's "Best Bet."  

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen looks back on his milestone win #10,000 and discusses his contenders in Saturday's stakes.  Trainers Brad Cox and Brendan Walsh talk about their leading Oaks and Derby prospects. Blood-Horse writer Byron King walks through this week's Derby Dozen. Plus, Scott Shapiro with this week's TwinSpires Triple Play, Kurt Becker's Stroll Through Racing History presented by Keeneland, Calling All Three-Year-Olds with Bobby Neuman presented by Spendthrift and Dale Romans & Tim Wilkin debate the sports hottest topics on 'I Ask, They Answer' presented by the University of Louisville Equine Industry Program.

In this episode of The Ellis Martin Report we speak with analyst, investor and senior geologist Byron King with Rickard's Gold Speculator. We chat with Claudia Tornquist, CEO of Kodiak Copper Corp (TSX-V:KDK/OTC:KDKCF). Jordan Trimble, CEO of Skyharbour Resources opines on the uranium sector (TSX-V:SYH/OTC:SYHBF). Bruce Durham , CEO of York Harbour Resources gives us a history on copper mining in Newfoundland with an overview of the company project there (TSX-V:YORK/OTC:YORKF). Elyssia Patterson of Latin Metals talks about grade and copper in Peru (TSX-V:LMS/OTC:LMSQF). Adam Smith of Oroco Resource Corp reminds us that Mexico is a large copper producer (TSX-V:OCO/OTC:ORRCF) and Paul West-Sells us on Western Copper and Gold's Casino Project in the Yukon Territory (NYSE/TSX:WRN) www.ellismartinreport.com www.kodiakcoppercorp.com www.westerncopperandgold.com www.latin-metals.com www.yorkharbourmetals.com www.skyharbourltd.com www.orocoresourcecorp.com

In this episode of The Ellis Martin Report we speak with analyst, investor and senior geologist Byron King with Rickard's Gold Speculator. We chat with Claudia Tornquist, CEO of Kodiak Copper Corp (TSX-V:KDK/OTC:KDKCF). Jordan Trimble, CEO of Skyharbour Resources opines on the uranium sector (TSX-V:SYH/OTC:SYHBF). Bruce Durham , CEO of York Harbour Resources gives us a history on copper mining in Newfoundland with an overview of the company project there (TSX-V:YORK/OTC:YORKF). Elyssia Patterson of Latin Metals talks about grade and copper in Peru (TSX-V:LMS/OTC:LMSQF). Adam Smith of Oroco Resource Corp reminds us that Mexico is a large copper producer (TSX-V:OCO/OTC:ORRCF) and Paul West-Sells us on Western Copper and Gold's Casino Project in the Yukon Territory (NYSE/TSX:WRN) www.ellismartinreport.com www.kodiakcoppercorp.com www.westerncopperandgold.com www.latin-metals.com www.yorkharbourmetals.com www.skyharbourltd.com www.orocoresourcecorp.com

Blood-Hore writer Byron King looks back on the top moments of 2022. Terry Finley from West Point Thoroughbreds talks about Flightline. Colonel Liam Racing Manager Jacob West discusses his return in the G2 Ft. Lauderdale. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. previews his runners in Saturday's stakes.  Jon White reflects upon the career and legacy of longtime Santa Anita announcer Joe Hernandez. Plus, Joe Kristufek with this week's TwinSpires Triple Play, Kurt Becker's Stroll Through Racing History presented by Keeneland and Dale Romans & Tim Wilkin debate the sports hottest topics on 'I Ask, They Answer' presented by the University of Louisville Equine Industry Program. Please help our wonderful friend, Stuart Morris

And now for some more Fatal Conceits…Welcome to Episode #76 of the Fatal Conceits Podcast, dear listener, a show about money, markets, mobs and manias. All eyes were on the Jay Powell's Fed this week, specifically the chairman's remarks following the much-expected 75-basis point rate hike. Word was that the central bank will “continue to do what needs to be done to get the job done." Actually, they were JP's exact words. “The job” to which Mr. Powell refers is, of course, to get inflation back to the 2% range. What does that mean for stocks and the dollar in the near term? What does it spell for America's already-toppy housing market, the pillar of middle-class wealth? And how will gold respond? The Midas Metal popped more than $50 on Friday. (Silver was up even more, doubling gold's advance in percentage terms.) For answers and insights, I spoke with Bonner Private Research's macro man, up in Laramie, Wyoming, Mr. Dan Denning. Over 45 mins or so, we covered all of the above, plus BPRs Trade of the Decade, the coming Winter Catastrophe, 2022 Redux, and why you should panic now (in an orderly fashion, of course) and beat the rush. Please enjoy our conversation and, as always, like, comment and share our work with friends and family far and wide. Cheers,Joel BowmanThank you for reading Bonner Private Research. This post is public so feel free to share it.TRANSCRIPT: Joel Bowman:All right, well welcome back to another Fatal Conceits podcast, dear listener, a show about money markets, mobs and manias. If you have not already done so, please head over to our Substack page. You can find us at bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com with hundreds of daily articles now on everything from high finance to lowly politics and a ton of in-depth research reports, many of which were authored by none other than my guest today, Bonner Private Research's, macro man up in Laramie, Wyoming, Dan Denning. Dan, welcome to the show. How do you do, mate?Dan Denning:I'm doing all right. It's dark and cold and gloomy here in Laramie as winter approaches, but that's kind of how it feels like in markets right now, so I suppose that's appropriate.Joel Bowman:Yeah, exactly. We're talking off camera just now and you were firing off emails this morning at around 5:00 AM. I'm imagining it was still well below freezing at that point up there?Dan Denning:Yeah, it was supposed to snow this week, but it hasn't, which is good and it's been nice and sunny, but it has been something we've been paying attention to both behind the scenes and when we're writing to the readers, because as it gets colder in the US, we're dealing with this 32% drawdown in the strategic petroleum reserve and then these reports of impending or possible diesel shortages so you're kind of trying to separate what's fact from fake, I suppose, and go beyond what's in the news reports to see if it's actually impacting truckers and travel prices and things like that. So we, Bill, last year, penned a winter catastrophe and we had bad winter last year, but I think it could be worse this year and as you know, because you're organizing it, we're going to address that in early December.Joel Bowman:Yeah, that's December 13 for our readers, listeners and viewers, I guess now that we're doing this on YouTube, but I'll pop a link down below where you can get some more information about registering for that event. As you mentioned, Dan, we're doing a bit of behind the scenes work just to get that all organized. It's going to be the 2022 Winter Catastrophe Redux, which will be more well attended than our first one, given that it was the inaugural event and we had just a few hundred readers on that very first call with Byron King and Rick Rule, but yeah, as you mentioned, the second one looks to be shaping up to be quite the event. Of course, it's the kind of thing that you don't want to be right about, a coming winter catastrophe, but that looks like what's on the plate anyway.So let's start at the beginning, Dan, because we're talking on Thursday the 3rd of November, and of course the big news this week was yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting where Powell & Co. hiked rates by the expected 75 basis points, but I guess it was what followed that hike that kind of got markets a little spooked. We saw a 500 or so point drop in the Dow after Mr. Powell's remarks yesterday. I'm just going to read a quick quote here from the Fed Chairman in which he says "The question of when to moderate the pace of increases is much less important than the question of how high and how long to keep monetary policy restrictive." He said, adding that "It was very premature to discuss when the Fed might pause its increases." Was this more or less in line with what you and Tom had expected and what does it mean for both stocks and the dollar in the near term in your view?Dan Denning:Yeah, I think the answer to the first question is definitely. The market, whether you use the future's market for interest rate expectations or you listen to the people that are quoted in mainstream media as analysts for the major banks or Wall Street firms, at the beginning of the year, they thought that the highest the Fed would go this year was 3.75% and we've been saying since the beginning of the year that it has to be much higher than that in order to bring inflation down from 8% to even 4%. A chart that we've shown repeatedly reveals that rate real interest rates, so interest rates adjusted for inflation, are still negative... and they're negative by a long way. So that would change if inflation halved from here, so the Fed wouldn't have to raise as high, but we've said that people consistently underestimate how high interest rates will have to go before inflation is under control and they probably underestimate the Fed's willingness to raise them that high.So what you get is this mistake that we saw in the summer, and again, this mistake we've seen in the fall, where the market thinks the Fed is done raising interest rates, or will pivot to either raising them less fast or even cutting them, as some people had hoped, and so they bid up the price of especially growth stocks, risk assets as they say, and everybody gets super excited because they think the end is near. But as Powell said yesterday, it doesn't appear the end is anywhere close to being near. He said inflation hasn't come down since last year; that there will be no pause and that the so-called terminal rate or neutral rate, is at least 5%. So all that could change if the Fed issues a press release and has another press conference, but in terms of talking to the markets about where interest rates are headed, the message couldn't have been any clearer yesterday and I just don't know why people aren't listening to the Fed, so I think that's one reason Powell spoke so forcefully.Joel Bowman:It's a strange situation, isn't it, when we get strong inflation prints, for example, or when things in the market seem to be breaking, and investors take that as of reason to bid up stocks because they think then, okay, the Fed is now going to have to ease off because things are starting to break. Powell said yesterday that he is going to "continue to do what needs to be done to get the job done" and by getting the job done, he explicitly mentioned bringing the rate of inflation back to around the 2% range. You've written about this before and so have both of Bill and Tom, but what does that imply for a real rate? And in other words, how far does the Fed have to keep raising before it can get, as they say, ahead of the curve, do you think?Dan Denning:Well, if you look back to the '70s in a similar situation, where I think Powell is studying his playbook, you saw that the Fed prematurely cut interest rates when inflation began to come down and then inflation came roaring back, so from that point of view, they probably want to see whatever inflation target they have, whether it's 2% or 4%, which I think... I think it's more likely they'll raise their inflation target because it'll be harder to get it to 2%, but they'll want to see it there for a while and it appears now that the only way to do that, at least according to the Fed, is to sort of crush the economy into a recession, to destroy demand at the retail level because people don't have money, which means higher unemployment, none of which are great, but as long as the Fed sees that there's no disorderly action in the stock market...and more importantly, I think, in the credit markets, where higher interest rates don't precipitate a bankruptcy at the corporate level, like a high profile bank or a brokerage or a really highly leveraged financial player who could then spread contagion into the rest of the market. If that doesn't happen, the Fed is happy to either to continue to raise rates or, a possibility that people haven't considered, is just leave them at a high rate for much longer than expected, until they see inflation figures come down.And a lot of people say, well, if there's a ceasefire in Ukraine, then the oil price will come down and energy is a huge component of the CPI... or if X happens, then inflation will come down... but I think what Powell has made clear, and the market isn't listening, is that they're going to wait to see that number come down and stay down before they decide to sound the all clear signal. And stocks just weren't priced for that. They were priced as if interest rates were at or near their peak. And that's just clearly not the case yet.Joel Bowman:What does this spell for the greenback, which is already at multi-decade highs in some cases against foreign currencies? What can we expect going forward there?Dan Denning:Well, it should get stronger, shouldn't it? I mean, the wider the interest rate differential between the US bond market and the Japanese bond market or the European bond market or other markets like Australia, then you'd expect the dollar to remain strong. I guess what that means is this weird feedback loop that, and it's what we saw this summer, is that the higher interest rates create big problems for leveraged borrowers, especially those in emerging markets, that have borrowed in dollars because now it's getting more expensive for them to pay back their dollar denominated debt. So it creates a demand for dollars to pay that debt back before it gets more expensive and also it creates a demand for other so-called safe dollar denominated assets. So if you look at, for example, the one year and two year US treasuries, a year ago, the yield on the one year US Treasury was barely above 1%. Now it's just below 5%.So for foreign investors or large institutions and central banks looking to park cash in a strong currency that actually now has a respectable interest rate, that creates a demand for dollar denominated assets, which further distresses the price action in emerging markets and currencies that are under pressure so, not great, but I think what Powell has said as an echo of what US Treasury secretary John Connally said in the '70s, that the dollar is America's currency, but everybody else's problem.This is a really important point Tom has made, which I think not a lot of people, I haven't really seen it made elsewhere, and it's underappreciated, is that in the context of everything that's happening in the world right now, geopolitically, if you view Russia and Saudi Arabia and OPEC using oil and energy as a weapon against the United States, and perhaps China too, using COVID lockdowns as a way to keep prices high for Chinese exports, the US counterpart to that is the dollar, the stronger the dollar is the more it mutes the effects of inflation on energy and imported products in the United States.So Tom believes that the Fed is using the dollar as a financial weapon to counteract energy as a commodity weapon and in that sense, if Powell is acting both to bring inflation down, but to use the dollar as an economic weapon, then it could stay higher for longer than people expect. For US investors, the other implication, which we can talk about if you want, is what that means for gold because there's been some interesting things that happened this week in the gold market that we need to pay attention to.Joel Bowman:Well, let's talk about that then, because a lot of people, particularly our readers, most of whom I would say are in the US, they've been adhering to what was Richard Russell's old mantra was, and one that both you and Tom have echoed of late, which is "cash now gold later" and they've been looking at the price action in gold, which has been more or less range bound in dollar terms but as we've been talking about, the dollar is of course at historic highs right now, but viewed in terms of other currencies, Aussie dollar, pound, euro, et cetera, we see slightly different story. Where do you see us as on the "now-to-later" curve with regards to cash now gold later?Dan Denning:Yeah, that's a great question and we take it up. In fact, we decided to change the format a little bit for the subscribers, the paid subscribers. We had intended, at the beginning of the year, to review them quarterly because that's about the appropriate amount of time to review the performance and then decide if a change needs to be made, but because we've got so many new readers who are not familiar with that strategy, or only read about it in February, we've decided to revisit that every month in the monthly strategy report. So for paying subscribers, they can take some comfort that this discussion is now a more regular discussion because it needs to be a more regular discussion.But with respect to what we said at the beginning of the year, we said, no bonds, lots of cash, lots of gold, less real estate and that turned out to be pretty spot on, which is great, but the question is, what now? So I think what you're seeing with the higher government bond interest rates one year, two year, 10 year, really most of the US yield curve is now above 4%. That makes annuities and fixed income products slightly more interesting to investors than they were a year ago, and certainly more interesting relative to stocks because if stocks look like they could go down another 20% or 30%, then putting short term cash in a money market fund or a CD or a Treasury I bond that has a respectable yield is now a lot more attractive to people. We think gold is doing exactly what it's supposed to do, which is preserve your purchasing power, so if you look on a year-to-date basis, gold's down 11%, which is about the same as the Dow, but that's after the Dow rallied almost 15% from its lows in October.So now that this Fed pivot is not going to materialize, I would expect probably the Dow, the S&P 500 and certainly the Nasdaq to close or to go lower, whereas gold is pretty much staying where it's at. So on a relative basis, we think gold is doing what it should do for you in your asset allocation strategy, which is do better than everything else. And of course, the Nasdaq's down actually 32% and the S&P's down about 20% so I wouldn't be surprised to see gold outperform at least this month and probably through the end of the year. And you see that two interesting things have happened in the price action with gold. One, retail investors have kind of gotten frustrated because gold hasn't gone up and inflation's 8% and they're like, what good is gold if inflation's 8% and I'm not making more money?And our answer is you're not trying to make money in dollar terms with gold, you're trying not to lose money, and we'd like to be doing better, but it's better alternative than sticking money in the bond market or increasing our allocation to stocks. The interesting thing that happened in the third quarter is that according to the World Gold Council, which keeps track of these things, central banks added more gold than they ever have before in any quarter in the history of data from that organization. They had a 399 tons of gold and don't know exactly who the buyers were, but we think it's probably the usual suspects so China, which doesn't always report, Russia, which has an obvious interest in diversifying its currency service, and then some of the oil and gas exporters who've been making money hand over fist have been converting it to gold.So on the one hand, retail investors kind of sitting on their hands lamenting the price action, and on the other hand, this huge quarterly surge in central bank gold buying and in fact, the year-to-date buying by central banks through the first three quarters is already greater than any year in the last 20 years so you can see that this financial war about hard assets versus the dollar, you can see what's going on in the background. So I like that price, I like that piece of data because it confirms to me that at the bottom of this leveraged pyramid of financial assets sits gold, and in any private portfolio, you ought to have some portion of your wealth safely stored in that and for the long term, just ignore the week-to-week, day-to-day price fluctuations because they really shouldn't matter that much.Joel Bowman:Yeah, interesting. It's almost like what our good friend Chris Mayer talks about, having skin in the game and inside knowledge into the operations of a particular company. One wonders, do central banks know something that the rest of the world or the rest of the investors don't know when they're, as you say, hoarding record amounts of gold at this moment? But with respect to stocks, which you mentioned just then, and of course they are still down considerably for the year, but not as much as they were just a month ago, October was, if I'm not mistaken, I think the best month ever for stocks, or certainly for a very, very long time, you'll have the exact stat there.When you and Tom and Bill talk about a significant drawdown in stock markets, you toss around some pretty big numbers. We saw, obviously last week, a lot of earnings reports between Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, something like 350 billion worth of market cap was wiped out after some pretty shoddy reports and grim forecast for the rest of the year. I think only Apple is the last man standing there in the Dow. For how long can we expect this to hold up and what's our outlook for Q4 for stocks?Dan Denning:Yeah, that's a great question. I mean, Bill Bonner, our founder and patron saint, during his sabbatical he made a great point which he's been making for a long time, that the last 20 years and really since 1982, if you want to go all the way back that far, since 1982, the stock market's been underpinned by three pro-growth, structural features, cheap energy, low interest rates, and the lower and cheaper cost of global labor, which is really China since it came into the world economy in 2000 when it entered formally into the World Trade Organization. All have been really favorable for high GDP growth but what hasn't happened is you haven't seen high productivity growth. What you have seen happen is high growth in the multiples, people are willing to pay for growth stocks and at the forefront of growth stocks were the technology stocks from 2000 to now.And the earnings numbers weren't terrible in terms of the amount of revenue generated by these companies, it's an impressive amount, but what's notable in all other cases is the rate of growth has slowed markedly, particularly in advertising for Facebook or Meta and for Google, but also in the cloud. Cloud computing, which for Amazon is particularly important because the cloud is the only business segment that runs at an operating profit. It pays for the rest of the retail business and if the cloud business is growing less quickly, then it supports the thesis that the leading sector of the market for the last 10 years, the tech sector, will not be the leading sector of the market for the next 10 years because the growth phase underpinned by those three things is over. That's not a cyclical change in the market. That's what we call a secular change, a long term change.And that's why our forecasts for the indexes are not a 20 to 25% bear market and then back to business as usual, it's a 40 to 50% decline in the indexes with a 60 to 80% decline in the most leveraged and aggressive growth investments, which we've already kind of seen with Arrk Innovation Fund and Spotify and Netflix and Snap and some of these other tech companies. So our whole premise since we started last year, as you know, is to prevent a big draw down and loss in your retirement savings during this transition from the high growth phase to whatever comes next.So everyone's like, great, great, yep, it's over now though, right? So 25% down we can get back to business. And what we've said is this is not business as usual, this is a new era, as they used to say in the early 2000s, but it's an era where all the fundamental pillars that uphold the stock markets prices are changing. So it's not all bad news because for example, we think energy is going to be the big winner in the next 10 years, which is why we made it the trade of the decade and if you look at some of the best performing stocks this year in the Dow, one of them is Chevron. Exxon would be, but it's not in the Dow anymore because-Joel Bowman:It got booted.Dan Denning:... right, for Salesforce. So there are these little pillars of light, a thousand points of light or a dozen points of light as George Bush might say. So we're still looking, but I think Tom's strategy is the correct one that you have to be really opportunistic and tactical and to echo Chris Mayer's point, you take your chances when you see a good business opportunity or a good trading opportunity, but from a strategic point of view, when it's a bear market, you don't want to own too many stocks and so we continue to be underweight stocks compared to what you would get in a more mainstream, institutional portfolio and that won't change anytime soon.Joel Bowman:So let's then I guess move on from the last 10 years of growth, growth, growth and which, as you said, seems to be coming to a fairly cataclysmic end and something that you mentioned just there, our trade of the decade, which is essentially long conventional oil and gas, we have a specific proxy trade for that, but the convergence of those three enormous macro trends that Bill has underlined for us, the end of cheap and abundant energy, the end of cheap and abundant credit, and the end of cheap and abundant labor, all for various reasons, including the weaponization of all three by various geopolitical players around the world right now, really sets a kind of perfect storm to use an overused metaphor for energy going forward.When I spoke to our mutual friend, Doug Casey on this podcast just a few weeks ago, maybe a month or so ago, he brought up the oft overlooked statistic that if you go back to the seventies, which a lot of people are talking about now for very obvious reasons, high inflation, et cetera, et cetera, the oil and gas producers and explorers made up something like 30% of the market cap of the S&P 500, that's down to about 3% last year, it may have inched up with some strong performance in that sector and of obvious selloffs in others this year so maybe up around 5%, but it's a long way from its historic high and it's a long way from the kind of CapEx and R&D investments that you would expect to power a 21st century economy, which is largely or if not entirely built on the fossil fuel revolution.So do you maybe just want to catch us up on where we are on the trade of the decade thus far, and any catalysts that you see in the near to medium term that might be getting us to where we think we're going to be headed?Dan Denning:Yeah, great question. We're still really early in a decade which is an arbitrary time so it's not like we think that it'll be exactly 10 years, but Bill has made a couple of these trades since the millennium, since 2000. And some of it's based on just sector performance. So it's a little bit like The Dogs of the Dow strategy that you buy the worst performing Dow stocks at the end of the year, they're going to be the best performing stocks and not everybody, the data backs that up mostly, although some people say that in a bull market you just keep buying the best performing stocks, that you buy momentum, you don't try to buy value or a beaten down value because then you get caught into value trap. But what we'd looked at when we went into the trade was that energy was historically small as a percentage of the S&P market cap.It had its worst 10 years of any of the 11 sectors in the S&P and that because of regulation and the energy transition and the anti-fossil fuel narrative from both Wall Street and Washington, that the companies had decided, okay, fine, we won't invest in oil and gas if you're coming after our business, it doesn't make sense to. So all of those had set up for a big, big turnaround in the performance of the oil and gas sector. That's only just started to happen. I mean, on a financial basis it's definitely started to happen because of high oil and gas prices but in terms of investment flows, institutional money going into oil and gas, that's still complicated by the ESG policies of a lot of the pension funds and other funds like BlackRock and Vanguard about whether they're going to commit to investing in companies that might bring oil and gas online.So we don't really care about any of that because we think at the end of the day, 82% of the world's energy still comes from fossil fuels. It's unchanged in the last 30 years despite the growth of renewables. It's exactly the same really so we think that it'll be that way for a while and that even if there is an energy transition toward more electric vehicles or toward maybe more natural gas fired plants rather than coal, that it's going to take a lot of fossil fuels to fuel that transition, to manufacture everything you need to have an energy economy that's based on electricity. And we see stories about, well, there's going to be an OPEC of lithium and electric car battery technologies getting better and better. Great, no problem. Maybe that's true. But in the meantime, just look at the free cash flows being generated by major oil and gas producers.They're great. And the big risk to us right now is that the rate hikes by the Fed trigger not just the mild recession, but a massive recession which destroys demand for energy and brings prices down, which would lead to a correction in the stock prices of those producers, but over 10 years, not something we're too worried about given the other trends so if you're entering the trade and we write about this on a weekly basis, you just look for weakness in the particular investment that we recommended. And by weakness, I mean it trades below a moving average or it's relative strength indicator, which is a technical indicator under 30.That's not happening right now, but it is something we update readers on who are new to the research, who like the idea, who believe in the thesis and who want to enter the trade so we may have another opportunity to enter the trade before the end of the year, but again, over the 10 years, we think the big factors that are pushing oil and gas prices higher should be very favorable to the free cash flows of those producers and it should trounce any of that other crap in the EV space. That's what we think.Joel Bowman:I'll have to get that last sentence as a pullout quote for the transcript here, Dan. This I guess brings us full circle to the winter catastrophe that we opened the conversation with at the top, and something that you and I have been looking at in particular lately. You mentioned the diesel or distillate shortage in the United States. I had a look at a couple of figures the other day writing under a guest column by our good friend Byron King and I think the situation is, I mean, as you said, it's difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff with regards to what's a little overblown and what is cause for concern but a report out by the Energy Information Agency has the US reserves at something like a 50 year low. Actually, it was even further than that, it went back to I think 1951 when the population of the United States was a mere 150 million beating hearts.It's obviously more than double that now. Officially, it's something like 332 million and obviously probably a lot higher than that. Added to that, not just a more than doubling of the population, but we obviously have a more modernized economy. We have ACs in every other room, we have, you know, if you plug in your Tesla in, that doesn't go to a windmill or a solar farm, that's going to an electrical grid that demands real fuel and I think one other point, just to add very quickly, is the other parts of the supply chains that tend to break down when you have an industrial fuel like diesel that is in short supply.So the number of commercial vehicles, this is trucks that freight your goods, your medical supplies, that stock your shelves at your local grocery store. 76% of these commercial vehicles operate on diesel fuel and they deliver 70% of the freight tonnage around the country from sea to shining sea. So is this something that people should be particularly concerned about? I mean is it going to be an acute problem in the near future, or is there's something that's just going to see a bit of a price spike and hopefully we'll have some mild weather and we'll see you on the other side?Dan Denning:Yeah, it's an important question because it's not simply a financial question, it's what level of preparation is it reasonable for you to take given the risk that there's an interruption to our supply of diesel fuel, which translates into things not being on the shelves in the store, whether that's medicine or food, or whether it's fuel at the pump for your own vehicles. So we don't want to be blase about what the risk is, or we don't want to exaggerate it either. The truth is, the refining capacity of US refineries has been pretty much maxed out all year so even if we were releasing more oil or could release more oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, we couldn't turn it all into distillate fuels and we couldn't get it all into the pumps and that's assuming we're not exporting some of it, which we are, whether it's crude oil or whether it's distillate fuels.So the refining bottleneck is a major issue and part of the problem when you run your refineries at 90% of capacity or 95% of capacity for months on end, as things start to break down and when they do, then you have even less product coming online so that's a real thing to keep your eye on and it's already started to happen. But as to the level of preparation you need to take, I'd be prudent. I think if you, like I grew up in a big family and we always had extra food even though people were eating it all the time, it was hard to keep extra food ready to go but we don't associate life in... Most Americans, or most people watching this probably don't associate life in the 21st century with the idea of having to prepare for much higher food prices or an actual shortage of food.I mean, you can call DoorDash or Uber right now, and they will deliver cheap calories to your door running on fuel so we don't have bread rights yet but I think one thing we've learned in the last two years from COVID, and really from the response to COVID by shutting down the global supply chain, is how short and fragile the just in time supply chain is, and how long it takes to recover once government has mangled it up. So you'd be foolish to look at what's happened in the last two years and not take some sensible level of preparation for both your food and fuel supplies. And I think that's as an important investment decision as you can make this winter as whether you buy the Dow or whether Apple is going to hold up. By the way, you asked about that, and I didn't mention it, but I will finish with that.Apple has held up really well. It hasn't made its lows from June, I think, which was around 139 and I think it's a great litmus test for how long this market can hold up because anybody who manages money has to own Apple for whatever reason, because it's a great company, because it's performed so well and to me, it's like a fortress stock that everyone flees behind the gates and they lower the drawbridge or they raise the drawbridge and everyone hides in Apple because of its liquidity, because it's widely owned, because it's a quality stock. So when Apple gives up the ghost and makes a new low, then we'll start talking about whether the market has made a low. But until that happens, I think you shouldn't try to time the bottom of the market. You should probably try to fill up the bottom of your freezer with some frozen beef and chicken and things that you can cook later and then step away.The trends we're talking about, we think will take years. And so from week-to-week and month-to-month, they don't require a lot of buying and selling. You just have to get the strategy right and I think right now we feel pretty comfortable with where it's at, but things can change quickly. As we saw with the Fed's announcement. If the Fed came out and pivoted because of data, then you could see another, you know, you could see a lot of volatility in stock prices but we don't think that changes the overall primary trend in markets.Joel Bowman:All right, thanks, Dan. You guys are doing a great job there. Just once again, please head over to bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com. Readers, listeners, and viewers will be able to get all of Dan, Tom and Bill's writings on all of the above subjects and plenty more and I guess the takeaway here is panic, but in an orderly fashion and see if you can't beat the rush.Dan, thanks for joining us from your fortress of solitude up there in Laramie. We'll catch you again soon.Dan Denning:Okay. Thanks, Joel.Thank you for reading Bonner Private Research. This post is public so feel free to share it with investors, traders and speculators alike.... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/subscribe

And now for some more Fatal Conceits…“I think those people at the Nobel Committee must have a sense of humor,” quipped Bill Bonner, in response to the questionable judgement that resulted in Ben Shalom Bernanke being awarded the Nobel Prize for economics earlier this week. “They're either very dumb or very cynical,” Bill continued. “And I'm not sure which it is because, if you remember that time, Ben Bernanke was wrong about everything. And no major issue came to him that he was not wrong about.”Alas, 14 years after Mr. Bernanke's preposterous “we may not have an economy on Monday morning” speech, in which he presented one of the most galling false dichotomies of the modern era (pass this unprecedented – and lately unread – stimulus bill… or the sky will fall), and we are now reaping the whirlwind of his profligacy.Over the course of a half hour or so, Bill shared with us his thoughts on the end of the Age of Abundance, the reason our current financial predicament differs greatly from what Volcker faced in the ‘70s (Hint: It begins with D and rhymes with “regret”) and why those born after 1980 cannot know, first hand, what a return to the “Old Normal” will entail…All that and plenty more on Ep #74 of the Fatal Conceits podcast. Please enjoy and, if you have a moment, share with a friend…Also, if you're interested in purchasing some of Bill's wine, which we talk about towards the end of the episode, their Tacana 2020 vintage is now available to select buyers. The first half of the allotment (reserved for the Bonner Wine Partnership's private Tacana buyer's list) sold out in a day. The rest probably won't be around for long, so if you want to grab a few bottles… for the cellar or the bunker… don't dilly-dally. More information here: And for those of you who are less audio-inclined, you'll also find a full transcript of today's interview, below. Until next time…Cheers,Joel BowmanThank you for reading Bonner Private Research. This post is public so feel free to share it.TRANSCRIPT:Joel Bowman:Welcome back to another episode of the Fatal Conceits Podcast dear listener. It's the show, as you know, about money markets, mobs and manias. If you have not already done so, please head on over to our Substack page. You can find us at bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com. On that page, you'll be able to find hundreds now of essays authored by today's guest, Bill Bonner, in the daily section. We've got plenty of research reports from Dan Denning and Tom Dyson. And of course, many more conversations like this under the Fatal Conceits Podcast tab at the top of the page. So without further ado, I think you can probably see in your screen there, framed by gilted cornices, remnants of a bygone era of abundance, Mr. Bill Bonner, welcome to the show. How do you do sir?Bill Bonner:Thank you Joel. It's a pleasure to be with you.Joel Bowman:You're up there in Baltimore at the moment, that's correct?Bill Bonner:In Baltimore. And you're right, it is the bygone remnants of an ancient civilization. Baltimore was by the way, the richest city in America in say the early 19th century because it had such a great harbor. And it was also connected, through the Cumberland Gap, it was connected to the whole Ohio Valley and all that area over there on the other side of the Appalachian Mountains. So it was a big important port for people coming from Europe and a big important port for people making mostly food things that they exported it to Europe. And people got rich. And movies from say the 1920s or so, maybe a little bit later, they will frequently have a rich person as somebody from Baltimore. And that all seems so unlikely now. It's hard to even imagine.Joel Bowman:To be rich like a Baltimorean is like to be rich like an Argentine.Bill Bonner:Same thing.Joel Bowman:Exactly. And I'm racking my brain here, but how on earth were they able to get rich without ESG governance and diversity boards and equity programs…?Bill Bonner:That was before the foundation of the Federal Reserve. I mean, how did they know what interest rates to charge? They were building in the early 19th century here in Baltimore. They had huge factories. They made things, made things that they exported out of profit. How did they know how to do that without the feds showing them what interest rates to charge and so on, without the Fed printing money to stimulate them? Nobody stimulated them at all. They were stimulated by the desire to make money I guess. And they did quite well with it in that. But now we have, thank God, we have the Fed to stimulate the economy when it's needed to support the stock market when it seems to be falling and to provide us with the interest rates that we need. How they know what interest rates we need has never been clarified. But that's one of mysteries of the Fed.Joel Bowman:Yes, we certainly couldn't rely on the market for any, shall we say, “self stimulation”?Bill Bonner:NoJoel Bowman:Top down only. Speaking of which, that dovetails into news this week of, I don't know whether you would call him our colleague, but another economic luminary, Mr. Ben Bernanke, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics earlier this week. This of course is the man who had the “courage to act," at least according to himself, and who saved us from “not having an economy on Monday” as he warned us with such certainty...Bill Bonner:October the fifth, 2008. He went before Congress and he said, Look, if you guys don't pass this act, which I think was what was known as the TALF Act, it was a lot of spending to try to stimulate the economy, that if you don't pass this, we may not have an economy on Monday. He was talking on Friday. And thank God he rose to the challenge and showed that courage to act because otherwise we still wouldn't have an economy.Joel Bowman:Incredible. It does seem so "through the looking glass," the up is down back is forwards, when we see that not only did the man who failed to foresee the bubbles that had been created during the Greenspan era and that had led to these enormous imbalances and malinvestments, in particular the housing market. I remember yourself writing about huge irregularities in the mortgage back securities markets and Eric Fry writing about that. Our colleague Dan Denning was on the case of course. So it seemed like everybody except Federal Reserve economists were on the case. What does it say that 14 years later, having stimulated, it seems now, an even a larger bubble, that we not only look back and have not learned our lesson, we're gifting the guy the highest prize there is in the dismal science?Bill Bonner:Well, I think those people at the Nobel Committee must have a sense of humor. That's all I can think of.Joel Bowman:That's big sense of humor.Bill Bonner:They're either very dumb or very cynical. And I'm not sure which it is because Ben Bernanke, if you remember that time, he was wrong about everything. And no major issue came to him that he was not wrong about it. He was the one who said the subprime problem before the crisis of 2008, the subprime problem crisis was "contained." Of course it wasn't contained at all. He had all these things that were idiotic, like zero rates. He came up with that QE, he didn't invent it, it was the Japanese who developed it. But a lot of these things which now we see clearly are the cause, the proximate cause, not the only cause, but the proximate cause of our inflation and our economy, which is now melting down in order to try to contain inflation, those stemmed from policies put in place by Ben Bernanke. And not the only one because Janet Yellen kept doing the same thing and Powell came along and followed right in their footsteps.But for the Nobel Committee to award him a Nobel Prize is really quite remarkable. And it calls into question our whole elite process. Why do they think that he should get a prize for that? And then to have the hubris, the conceit, the unmitigated gall to write a book called The Courage to Act. I thought it was a joke when I first heard about it. I said, no sensible person would do that. Even if he believed that he had the courage to act, even if he believed that he had saved the economy, you still wouldn't put it out there. That makes you sound like an utter fool. What it does is it invites the wrath of the gods. There's someone way up there they must be after him. Now I don't know what they're going to do, but they're going to be after him.Joel Bowman:Pride before the fall. And for a man with a legacy unblemished by, as you said, a single success in the real world. So it does beg a lot of questions. But let's fast forward then 14 years after that fateful October Friday to where we are presently. And as you look across the landscape, I know you spent a lot of time down here in Argentina and then split between both sides of the Atlantic. When you look forward to what has happened in Argentina, they've been at the forefront of every boneheaded economic and financial policy known to man, real pioneers in the dismal art. When you look from here to where you are now in the United States, you look over to what's happening with the Bank of England or in the Japanese bond market. It does seem that there are enough signs that sort of point to this time maybe actually being different and this time maybe being the end of what you and Dan and our colleague Tom Dyson have called the Greatest Financial Experiment in History?Bill Bonner:Well, I think that's exactly right and I think people are having a very hard time coming to grips with it. Even people in the financial industry, they're so used to what they think as 'normal.' I was just speaking to some of my colleagues here in Baltimore about it and trying to explain it from my standpoint. And I realized that everybody I was talking to was born after 1980. I mean they were literally not born in any time other than the boom that we have known for the last 40 years. In 1980, of course then Paul Volker got control of inflation. Interest rates came down ever since. And there were a lot of things going on. Most important was the entry of like 500 million Chinese people into the market. And those people produced things at a low price.But for these people, I'm talking about people who were born after 1980, it's very hard to get to understand that the whole circumstance of your life, the whole circumstance of your life has been phony. Faith been synced up by the Federal Reserve to give the impression that everything is always up. The stocks and financial advisors will tell you this to these young financial advisors say, Well yeah, stocks go down, but they always go back up. And so what you have to do is buy the dip. Now they're all out there looking for the bottom. The bottom is the point in which they don't go down anymore. Now they're going to go up, so you got to buy. And they have these charts and graphs that show that you buy it every dip, it always goes up.But it's not that simple at all. If you had bought stocks in 1966, which was a good year for a stock market, you would've held them for the next 16 years until 1982 really. And the prices would've been about the same. But because inflation was happening, you would've lost 75% of your money. That was a long time to lose 75% of your money. And to talk to somebody and say, Well, you just hold on, they'll go back up. Well maybe they'll go back up, but it could be after you're dead. You're not going to have an infinite amount of time here.And so there are times in history, and I think this is the key point, that if you look at anybody who is telling you they have a good track record, and of course that's everybody. And in the financial industry, they boast about what they've done and so on. All of that happened during a very special time which no longer exists. Now that's a hard thing to under for anybody to understand. And it's not that I'm saying, by the way, I'm not saying this is a new era. I'm saying this is the old era. What we've been through in mostly the last 10 years. But you could stretch it and explain that whole 40 year period was a grotesque and unusual series of things that came together, mostly including federal money printing by the Fed and QE and all the other things that they were doing. And that era is over and it ended in 2021. It ended when the bond market turned around, when actually it was 2020, it's the end of 2020. The bond market turned. When that happened, that was the end.And since then nothing has worked very well because the fundamental aspect of our financial lives is altered. And it no longer is a market with falling interest rates. It's no longer a market that the Fed can support by driving interest rates lower. It's a different world in which now the Fed is battling inflation. And once it decides not to battle inflation anymore, which I think it will, then you're going to see worse inflation. So that won't be like the period from 1980 to 2020. Not at all. It's going to be a whole different world with a different battle going on that'll be very hard to understand. And people say, Well, your stocks are going to go up. Well, they probably are going to go up, but they're going to go up like they did in Zimbabwe. They're going to go up like they did in Venezuela and like they did in Argentina. All of those markets were once the world's top performers. But when you adjust for the inflation, they were going down, it gets more complicated.And by the way, you have the advantage of being in the most complicated place in the world financially. And the Argentines learned to do these calculations. They have the blue dollar and they have the black dollar and they have the white dollar and they have the soy dollar. I'm not sure what that is. But now they have a new dollar. Did you know this as of yesterday, the Qatar dollar?Joel Bowman:Oh, I haven't heard about the Qatar dollar...Bill Bonner:The World Cup is taking place in Qatar and for Argentines who want to go, they have a special exchange rate.Joel Bowman:That's very interesting because I know I was aware, of course having lived here over the last dozen or so years, that we do have a dollar for every color of the rainbow and every gender you can imagine and pesos down here, they self-identify as all kinds of things. But I was made sort of brutally aware when I was on vacation just a couple of weeks ago to Brazil, I had forgotten that there is a clawback tax. This is part of the capital controls that happen here when you use an Argentine credit card abroad. I made the mistake of just handing it over for a hotel payment and then getting home to see my receipt and realizing that I'd had it sort of an extra 40 or 50% clawed back out of my account by the state. But this is the kind of shenanigans that happens when inflation gets out of hand.Bill Bonner:People, they find ways to try to obscure it, try to disguise it, try to eliminate it, but in doing everything but the one thing that really will work, right? They want to control prices. Now they're talking about controlling gas prices and states are providing people with extra money. There are all kinds of things and people find to try to overcome the fundamental reality of rising prices. And as in Argentina, they don't work, they never work.Joel Bowman:But it doesn't stop them from trying.So let's go back a little further then, because I was speaking to somebody just yesterday about this, it's a common kind of rejoinder to this narrative that we present in at Bonnet Rrivate Research, and that is where people say, Well, we've seen this before. It was the 1970s. Look, we had an oil embargo where a major oil producing block took supply off the global markets. We had the Nixon shocks, we had double digit inflation, it was runaway. And then we got Volker, and he marched in and whipped everyone into shape. And then as you said, then we're off to the races for the next 20, 40 odd years, rather. So what about today is different fundamentally than that seventies landscape that people think will just kind of, well, we'll muddle through and then we'll be off for another to a moonshot again?Bill Bonner:Well, the fundamental difference is 30 trillion dollars. The federal debt in 1980 was one trillion. Actually, it was below, it was actually 900 billion, below a trillion. Now it's 31 trillion, 30 times as much. That's the fundamental difference. And it's added to, it's not just the federal debt, it's also private debt, household debt, corporate debt, all at record levels. So they take them together and the whole sum of debt in America now is about 90 trillion. And what happens is, in this process of rates going up to bring things back to normal, the cost of all that debt goes up. And you soon realize that you can't pay it. That is not going to work.And that's what happened just two weeks ago in England when the traders saw what was happening and they were bidding up the yields, which is to say they're bidding down the prices on UK government bonds. And pretty soon all those big institutions, the pension funds, they rely on the price of those bonds to make their numbers work. And then suddenly it became clear they weren't going to work. And so the bank had to intervene. The Bank of England intervened with support stimulation, whatever you call it. They were buying bonds in order to save them from bankruptcy.And so what I suspect, I expect, this is what you call a high probability hunch, that the US is in the same situation, really even a worse situation in some ways. And as the Fed stays the course raises rates to try to get ahead of inflation, as they do so, we're going to see some things like what we just saw in England that certain institutions, could be Goldman Sachs, it could be JP Morgan, it could be a state pension fund like CalPERS in California. They've got billions of dollars. And they have done the same thing because this theory was pitched to them by Goldman Sachs of what they call LDI, which was matching your liabilities to some long-term goal. But what it really meant was they were ratcheting up the risk in order to try to improve the results. You can do that if you're a young speculator. But if you're managing the pension funds for a lot of retirees, that is practically criminal.So what's going to happen is somebody's going to get in big trouble and suddenly there's going to be that meltdown crisis on Wall Street in which the Powell and his fellow bankers, they really are part of a banking cartel in order to save themselves and their clients and their members Wall Street itself, they're going to say, Well, okay, that was a good idea. We need to get control of inflation, but not right now. Now we have to save the system because otherwise it'll go totally bad. I would say again, a high probability hunch is that that's going to happen and we're going to see a pivot from the central bank because they just owe too much.So your question was what's the difference now than from 1980? Well, the difference is all of that debt that they didn't have. Volker could raise rates to 20%. He could do that. He was condemned. He practically had to have an armed guard. People were threatening his life. But he could do that because America could afford it. Also, by the way, in 1980, it might have been 1979, stocks had already been squeezed so hard by inflation that they were already very, very cheap. They're not yet very, very cheap here. So we have a lot to lose. Trillions of dollars still to lose till we get there.By the way, we like to measure things in terms of gold, and in terms of gold, for a brief time you could buy the entire 30 Dow Jones industrial stocks for one single ounce of gold. And today, what is it? 18. What we're looking at is a totally different situation in which we have high deficit. The deficit was announced just yesterday for the current year of 1.4 trillion dollars. And this is at a year without really a crisis. A crisis hasn't appeared yet. They're running huge deficits. The debt is multiplying even without them. And we're in a situation where we can no longer continue on this course of action.And so what will happen, I believe is we'll see something will come up, some Lehman Brothers moment as they say on Wall Street will happen. And then the Federal Reserve will be forced to change towards inflation. And once that happens, it'll be the next stage. The stage we're in now is deflation. We're deflating all of those, a lot of those promises, obligations, debts and so on from the bubble era. That will go on until it becomes really painful and then they'll start inflating it again.Joel Bowman:And so this is what sets the backdrop for something that Richard Russell wrote about maybe 10 or 12 years ago. But it's the idea, and Tom Dyson of course has written about it over on our Substack page as well, and that is the idea of "cash now gold later." So gold after the pivot when hyperinflation, is off to the races...Bill Bonner:And we see so far that advice has been very, very good. Nobody really took it totally because it just felt awkward. We saw inflation running at 8%. So who wants to hold cash when inflation is running at 8%? But in fact dollars have ended up being the best investment so far this year. As long as we're in the deflation stage, you want cash and after the deflation stage you want something else. Probably gold, maybe stocks, stocks go up too. But you have to adjust that price by inflation, which is then out of control for the foreseeable future. That is going to be a different world. And that's a world that you probably know better than anyone because the inflation of Argentina is about 90%.Joel Bowman:Officially 90%. I tell my friends down here that Americans and Brits and Australians are worrying about 9% inflation. And they asked me to repeat myself, Sorry, did you say nine? We would kill for a 9% inflation. That would be a day in the sun for them.And so from then, from the past and the setup to where we think we are right now, I was speaking with our colleague last week, Mr. Byron King, and he and I spoke a little bit about the end of these three cheap abundant stimulants of this modern world that we've all come to just take for granted. Certainly in the last 40 years, and you've alluded to a couple of them already. But we've coming to the end, through various geopolitical kerfuffles and conflicts, of cheap energy. And we've outlined this over at Bonner Private Research. This feeds into our trade of the decade, which is long conventional energy. But that whole era of cheap, reliable local gas from various places seems to be coming to an end. This era of mass produced manufactured goods and tight supply chains unruffled by policies or global lockdowns, that seems now to be coming to an end. And of course as you've spoken about, we have potentially the end, at least for the foreseeable future, of cheap and available funny money, cheap and available discounted credit.Where do we go exactly from here? And I mean is it time to just build a bunker and buy gold and do nothing? I mean, how does the average person live through this if they're in that state of mind?Bill Bonner:One thing that we learned from the Argentine example is that you can live with inflation at a fairly high level. And this is not the first time they've done it in Argentina. You can live, but you can't live very well. The economy falls apart and you need to have protection from the local currency, which of course is what you do and what foreigners in Buenos Ares do because they operate on dollars rather than pesos, not prisoners of the local peso economy. And in a larger scale, when the economy turns around with the pivot on the Fed and more inflation in the US, that will be a similar reality in America, which you will not want to be dependent on the dollar completely, which is why you'll probably want to move assets into things which are not dollar dependent like gold, minerals, real things, timber. I'd like to be in the timber business. It looks good to me. Farming, a lot of things which are real and don't depend entirely on the value of the dollar. So I think that's where you're going to end up.It's not the end of the world by the way, no, it is not the end of the world if things go on, but they get more confusing. And they get a lot more confusing and people don't know what to do or what to make of them. And that's where you get the real problems because they feel cheated, and they are cheated. The whole idea of inflation is to cheat people. And so the guy who's worked all of his life, he's expecting his pension and his pension comes in and he realizes it's only worth half what he thought it was going to be worth. That guy gets pretty mad and he justifiably he gets angry and next thing you know he's out on the street or voting for somebody that he probably shouldn't vote for or whatever. People look for solutions. They want solutions. That's when they turn to the guy who has the easy solution. And that guy is almost always a fraudster.So it's a problem. And you get a big breakdown in society. Argentina, they had that inflation of, I'm not sure if it was the eighties, which ended up in the generals taking charge and military dictatorship was very common. In Venezuela you have that puppet government. I don't know what the world they are doing, but the guy Madura said that he had a crow or something on his shoulder who was whispering in his ear channeling the Chavez who was dead.Joel Bowman:Sounds as reasonable. Maybe we should get the Nobel Committee to give that guy a prize for telepathy from the great beyond or something.So speaking of the end of world and real assets, I promised our friend and our colleague Diego Samper that we would mention the solution to all of life's problems, all of the above. And that is your latest harvest of Tacana wine from your ranch down here up in the northern reaches of Argentina. I don't know how many people have looked at this on a map, but it's way up there in the north, right up close to the Bolivian border and it's really extreme country. We've been up there, we've been up there a few times.Bill Bonner:As you say, the solution begins with that popping of the cork.Joel Bowman:Around 6:00 PMBill Bonner:That's the most pleasant sound of the day. You pour yourself a drink and here in the autumn, here in Maryland, in the autumn, recently it's been chilly enough. So I just had a little fire in the fireplace, and at six o'clock I sit in front of the fire with a glass of Malbec and for a while it doesn't seem too bad.Joel Bowman:Yeah, it's palliative. So tell readers who haven't maybe experienced it yet the difference between, and I've spoken to Will, your son Will Bonner about this, the difference between what you can expect from a high altitude Malbec grown in really unique and extreme conditions and the watery diluted over sugared dyed stuff you might pick up at the supermarket.Bill Bonner:You stole my thunder there. But that is the difference that the high altitude, what it's doing is it the extremes between day and night. And the extremes between day and night require a thick skin to survive. And so the grapes grown at that elevation, they tend to have these very thick skins, and in the skins is all the flavor. So when you get that, the high altitude, not just our place, but any place in the valley, because we're in the valley which is the highest in the world for wine. You get wine that is very strong. And some people don't like it because it's too strong, but you get used to it soon enough and then everything else seems weak. When I drink my own Malbec, I feel like, well, there's real wine and everything else seems to be an imitation.Joel Bowman:Well I think “having a thick skin to last one through” is probably a good point to end our powwow today, Bill. I'm not sure where we're going to catch up next, but I hope there's a glass of high altitude Malbec involved in it and we can get a front row seat to whatever it is about to happen next in this passing parade.Bill Bonner:Well thank you Joel. It's been a pleasure.Joel Bowman:Yeah, thank you Bill. Cheers.P.S. Readers and or listeners wishing to grab a few bottles of high altitude Malbec will want to be nimble. Bill doesn't sell his Tacana bottles to supermarkets or restaurants, but instead directly to his dear readers… like you! But they typically sell out pretty quickly. If there's any left by the time you read this, you be able to secure your supplies here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/subscribe

And now for some more Fatal Conceits…When the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged last week (Sept. 26), we immediately fired off an email to energy and resource investor, geopolitical expert and all round man of letters, Byron King. Regular listeners (and readers) will recognize Byron as the man who called out “Germany's Energy Stalingrad” during our Winter Catastrophe summit. That was back in December of 2021, when European technocrats were still guffawing over suggestions that their green pipe dreams and over-reliance on Russian gas might present some problems in the near future…Fast forward to… well, the near future… and lo! Energy prices have gone parabolic on the continent as nations scramble to “weaponize” every strategic advantage they have, be they cubic feet of gas, global supply chains or greenbacks…Byron responded almost immediately… despite the fact that he was at the time kicking rocks deep in the heart of Mexico's Sierra Madre mountain range on a mining expedition. We caught up with Byron as soon as he landed back in the US to get his take on what's happening over in Europe, and what it could mean for folks on both sides of the Atlantic as ol' General Winter enters the fray.We hope you enjoy the conversation…Cheers,Joel BowmanHost of the Fatal Conceits PodcastThank you for reading Bonner Private Research. This post is public, so feel free to share it with comrades and compatriots alike...P.S. As always, expect a full transcript in this space over the next day or two (probably tomorrow)… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Fatal Conceits podcast, a show about money, markets, mobs and manias… not necessarily in that order. In today's episode, we're joined by Bonner Private Research's macro analyst, Mr. Dan Denning, who's been monitoring the markets from his “fortress of solitude” up on the high plains of Laramie, Wyoming. After the worst first six months for stocks in half a century… the worst market for bonds in over two centuries… and the worst for a standard, 60-40 portfolio in… ever, we wanted to get Dan's take on where he thinks we're headed from here.We talk fed hikes, inflation, jobs, housing, energy, BPR's “trade of the decade” and the looming threat of China's imploding housing market… and all in (just) under half an hour!For the less audio-inclined, there's a full transcript of the show (lightly edited for clarity) below. Otherwise, happy listening…Cheers,Joel BowmanThank you for reading Bonner Private Research. And welcome to our new listeners! Just so you know, this post is public, so feel free to share it with friend and foe alike...Joel Bowman: All right. Well, welcome back to another episode of the Fatal Conceits podcast, dear listener, dear viewer, as it were, if you're joining us on the YouTube channel. If you haven't already done so, please head over to our Substack page. That's bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com. By now, you'll be able to catch hundreds of articles from myself, Dan Denning, Bill Bonner, and Tom Dyson, about everything from high finance to lowly politics, and plenty more in between.There's plenty of research reports up there as well and also many more conversations just like this, which you'll find under the Fatal Conceits podcast tab at the top of the page. I'm delighted to welcome back our in-house macro analyst Mr. Dan Denning, who joins us today from the high plains of Laramie. Dan, how are you doing?Dan Denning: Yeah, good. It's been a busy couple of weeks, but still blazing hot summer here, so no complaints.Joel Bowman: As I sit here shivering in my sweater at four degrees Celsius. Mate, you and I were just speaking before we jumped on the recording here, we should make a special mention to a lot of new readers who have just joined us over the past few weeks or the past month. Welcome if you're joining us for the first time. I thought we might start with just getting up to speed with where we've been both with the project and with the markets for the first half of this year.I think most of our readers probably know the basic setup. Worst first six months for stocks in half a century, inflation at a 40-year high, worst first six months for the bond market maybe ever, and likewise for a balanced portfolio. Do you want to just catch us up to where we are now, eight months-ish into the new year? I know we've had a bit of a bounce of the June lows. There's talk about whether or not that's a bear market bounce or the road to recovery. Where do you map us at this juncture?Dan Denning: Yeah. I think that's the right question because there's the price action in the market and then there's the big picture. Taking our lead from Bill, we always start with the big picture, which is taking over decades, not just months or weeks or even years. From that point of view, not much has changed since the first half of the year or really since we started in January.That forecast or that prediction, if you will, is that the markets were extremely overvalued, mostly as a result of interest rates that had been left way too low for way too long. Then we expected lots of inflation because of both the fiscal policy, which is to say the stimulus spending from commerce. Then the support that the Fed gave to markets, which translated into higher consumer prices.There were a few other complicating factors like the result of the pandemic lockdowns and their impact on the supply chain. That is a really important story for investors ,that the de-globalization that the pandemic has kicked off is probably going to push inflation higher or keep it higher for longer than we think the stock market expects. But it was almost inevitable that after such a terrible first half of the year, you would get some sort of recovery or bounce in markets.Really the important question is, is that the end of the bear market, or is it a bear market bounce or a rally? I think our view, and I speak for Tom as the investment director and Bill as well, is that it falls pretty squarely within the definition of a bear market rally, which is easy to say academically, because you can look at it and say, "Well, the S&P is up by almost 20% from the June lows." Some of the more aggressive growth-oriented indices and stocks like Apple, the NASDAQ, they're up more than that.These are really challenging moves for investors looking at the long term, because in the short term you feel like I'm missing out and maybe I'm wrong, but from our point of view, nothing has changed technically or fundamentally to suggest that the primary trend in the markets is still down. So that's what our investment strategy is set up to address is, how do you preserve your capital? How do you avoid the big loss and how do you prepare for this stagflationary environment where you have high prices that are sticky and lower stock prices?There's a lot involved. There's interest rates involved and real interest rates and things like that. I'd say we got initial confirmation in the first half of the year that our macro thesis was spot on and since then we've seen sort of a counter cyclical reaction in stock markets. You never want to say the stock market is wrong. You never want to say that the price action is wrong, just because it disagrees with your thesis.But I'd say based on the levels in the stock market right now, we're not going to change our call about where we think things are headed.Thank you for reading Bonner Private Research. This post is public, so feel free to share it friend and foe alike...Joel Bowman: You mentioned stagflation there and prices. We've obviously got financial asset prices on the one hand but then prices of everyday goods and services that people consume on the other hand, that's obviously a big part of the picture. What do you say to people who make the case that inflation has peaked?I heard somebody use the metaphor the other day that the pig had moved through the python, this massive $6 trillion cash giveaway is moving through the system and now we're on the other side of that. What do you say to that argument?Dan Denning: Yeah. I mean, I'd say it's wrong. I think there's certainly an element that inflation was exacerbated by one-off factors, but that to me seems like the conventional explanation that it came easily and it will go away easily. History suggests that's not the case, that there's a lot of inertia once inflation gets hold. Part of that is just monetary and then part of it's psychological. If you look at real interest rates, so you look at the Fed funds rate adjusted for the inflation rate, it's still negative.It's around 6%, maybe almost 7%. Markets seem to have gotten ahead of themselves in saying that inflation will come down and the rate of interest rate increases has probably already peaked as well so they might continue to go up by 50 basis points or 25 basis points. But 3% is probably where the Fed will stop and therefore it's okay to go buy growth assets again at really high premiums, at high price to sales ratios, high price to earnings ratios.Those ratios are down a little bit from last November, but they're still elevated based on their historic high, so things aren't cheap right now. They're not cheap either especially if you think that we're headed toward either a recession or we've been in a recession, or that we'll have stagflation. You're pricing stocks as if interest rates were going to be lower or inflation was going to be lower and earnings were going to be higher.To me, that's a very rosy scenario and the risk if you're wrong is that there's still another 30 to 50% drawdown out there for equity prices based on where they normally revert in a mean reverting crash. Again, what I've been looking at lately, Joel, is I've been looking at the credit markets, especially if you look at some of the junk bond exchange traded funds, those have started to roll over a little bit.I say that because sometimes the credit markets are a little bit better indicator of financial conditions than the stock market. I'd say people who think that the Fed is done raising rates and that inflation's going to come down quickly, are hoping that's the case but the historical evidence is that it's not the case.Joel Bowman: You mentioned real rates, i.e. adjusted for inflation, and we're probably maybe something like 600 basis points behind the curve, as they say, where historically I think it was Volcker who jacked up rates to 600 basis points beyond the curve to get inflation under control when it was at roughly this level 40 years ago.Just sticking with real-world adjusted prices for a little bit, I know you've talked a lot about real wages, for example, and just to get back to your observation then that a rosy outlook necessarily entails increased earnings for corporations, I'm wondering how people who make the peak inflation argument are factoring in higher earnings when people's real, that is to say adjusted-for-inflation earnings, are lower and even going backwards.Dan Denning: No, I don't know. I mean, we both read the same people and we try to keep up. I mean, it's an important thing to keep up with data, evidence and arguments that could indicate that you've missed something or that you're wrong about something. But when you look at credit card debt exploding to its highest levels ever, a number of people taking out new credit cards and then the employment figures they vary from month to month, they're volatile. Are they leading? Are they lagging? Are they even correct?These are surveys. They're not necessarily hyper-accurate accounts of what's going on in the labor market, but if you look at the trends for real wages adjusted for inflation over time, those are easier to understand and they're easier to extrapolate.That compared to what's going on with energy prices, with healthcare costs, with food prices, with the cost of rent, with the cost of existing homes and new homes, those suggest that it's just harder than ever for normal people on a median wage and a middle class salary, even the rarest of things, a home with two wage earners, a mother and father who are both earning income, it's just the cap is getting bigger and bigger.I don't find it credible to think that there's going to be a huge rebound from the consumer in the second half of this year that justifies paying higher prices for stocks right now. Now, you talk about the stock market, we still look at individual companies where the setup is more favorable.I think that's an important point to make is as an asset class, our view on stocks is mostly bearish, but part of our strategy is to own some of them anyway, as part of a diversification approach and to focus on companies that have pricing power, companies that don't have debt, companies who for various reasons that are particular to their industry or to their management seem to be bucking the trend.That doesn't hedge your risk that when you own stocks in the bear market, most stocks go down, but Tom's actually been really... I say, actually. He's been doing it his whole career. He's been pretty good at finding these little pockets of opportunity. For new readers, or I think who would like to be more aggressive, we're simply not going to do that. We're not going to be aggressive on the short side because we're bearish and we're not going to try and surf these rallies and time the market perfectly in and out.I think Tom's going to continue his bottom up balance sheet analysis of companies that have a favorable setup and then trade them. I say trade, I mean, these are not long-term holds. We have one long-term hold, which is our trade of the decade, but the other stuff is not meant to be held for years. It's months or longer, but he'll be clear about all that when he sets them up.Yeah, it's difficult because we all have to do something with our money and it's hard to sit there and watch the market go up and wonder if you've missed something. I think we're on top of the macro trends and nothing has changed in the first half of the year that would cause us to think we're missing the boat on this.Joel Bowman: Right. Well, let's make that transition then for readers who are following along from what you've outlined then as Tom's tactical trades. They're these little pockets of the market where he sees perhaps an asymmetrical risk or favorable winds blowing, given a particular set of circumstances, but over the longer timeframe, which is to say the remainder of the decade, we've set up the /trade of the decade' as Bill has called it.This is essentially long conventional energy sources and there's a particular play on that for our readers. Do you want to set the backdrop there and maybe just talk about the slight correction in oil prices that has manifested over the past couple of months. Where we are with that?Dan Denning: Yeah, sure. I mean, that's an important one because if you want to do something, that's the simplest one to do. I would encourage people to read that report, which we'll probably update before the end of the year, because when we put it out at the beginning of the year, it was really based on two or three important ideas, none of which have changed. In fact that they've all gotten stronger and to extent that data has come out since then, I think it's confirmed what we said.The first one was just purely driven by the price action in the energy sector over the last 10 years. Anyone who's familiar with the idea of the Dogs of the Dow, that if you buy the worst performing Dow stocks from the last year and they tend to be not always the best performing, but they rally, or you can buy the best performing stocks from the previous year.The momentum investors would tell you to buy the best performing stocks from last year because they're probably going to be the best performing stocks this year. Contrarian Dogs of the Dow approach is to look for stuff that's done so poorly that it can't get much worse. When it gets worse in the Dow, they just kick you out of the Dow anyway. That's actually what happened with ExxonMobil.When we were looking, we looked at both the size of the S&P energy sector as a percentage of the entire S&P 500 and the performance of that sector relative to things like financial stocks and tech stocks, especially, and it couldn't have gotten any worse. Well, I mean, I suppose it could have gotten worse, but worse would've been the death of the coal industry and the death of the oil industry, which funnily enough, some people were calling for at the end of last year.They were saying, "That's it. Oil's never going to reach a hundred bucks again and it's uninvestable." I think Jim Cramer at one point said oil stocks are uninvestable.Joel Bowman: That's a great contrarian indicator for you right there.Dan Denning: Yeah. The magazine covers as well. The Economist had a lump of coal in a bell jar saying... I don't remember what it said, something like the end of coal. But those are cultural indicators of what's going on with liquidity and asset allocation and investor sentiment. It was underinvested in from that point of view, but that was the first point that it was bound for a rebound over the next 10 years, compared to the previous 10 years.The second point was because of regulatory action, which was mostly hostile to fossil fuels that the oil and gas company majors especially had dramatically reduced their capital investment in exploration and in production so that if demand recovered from the pandemic drawdown, which you would expect it would recover at some point, then the industry was not in a position to rapidly increase oil and gas supply to keep up with recovery demand.Our idea there was that demand would grow. It would resume, and it did quickly. You had the added complicating factor of the war in Ukraine with Russia and how disruptive that has been to energy supplies. That's a big story, which we probably can't get into here, but the idea that energy is being de-globalized or it's being politicized in a way that it hadn't before.The basic argument was just supply and demand, that the case that fossil fuels were dead was overmade, and that even if you believed that we were moving to renewables in this energy transition, it would be probably decades, not years and certainly not months and it wouldn't be seamless. That was a favorable setup.The third, which is probably a little more controversial is the very idea that we're moving seamlessly to an energy transition where the internal combustion engine will be replaced by electric cars and wind, solar and renewables, hydro, will all eventually replace coal and gas and we won't need nuclear is a pipe dream. It's a thermodynamic pipe dream and we're already seeing that.We didn't expect this at the time, but I saw this morning that Germany has two months of natural gas reserves, thanks to its dispute with Russia. That's a country and an economy that set themselves up as if they would always be able to get cheap fossil fuels, but switch miraculously to renewables. You and Byron King have had a lot of really productive discussions on why that's not true and what will happen if you make policy based on those assumptions.On the investment side, our conclusion was that for those three reasons, the underperformance in the previous 10 years, the underinvestment in the capital required to increase supply and the overemphasis on the energy transition and the idea that everything would be green and electrified, that over the next 10 years it would be hard to find a sector that's going to do better than oil and gas. That you can probably ignore the short-term price fluctuations.We get that a lot from new readers saying, "I didn't get into the trade when you made it. Is it too late?" What we say is we'll revisit it from time to time to look at when is an attractive time to enter the trade, and that means there's going to be drawdown. We were up by over 130% at one point, and then it came down, then it goes back up. The whole idea... Bill's idea of a trade of a decade was you just didn't have to pay attention to any of that over 10 years.Find yourself an attractive entry point to the trade, put as much money in as you're comfortable losing, and then forget about it. Don't agonize. If you can't sleep because you've made an investment that's supposed to work over 10 years, then probably it might not be the right investment for you. We'll update that report. I think those three points are still in our favor, and if anything, I think the decline in the oil price has been overdone.That's an interesting issue, which I'll get into in a weekly update in the next couple of weeks, but I wouldn't worry too much about the price action in the oil market.Joel Bowman: I should mention there that we recently unlocked a transcript that we recorded back in late December of 2021 with Bill's longtime friends, Rick Rule and Byron King. We had a really great discussion. This was when we were just getting going with Bonner Private Research and they were generous enough to give us their insights on what was happening in the energy markets.Of course, nobody could have foreseen the events in Eastern Europe unfolding as they did, but that served really just to exacerbate the situation that they had seen there. You can go onto bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com and check out that unlocked transcript. I'll put a link in the notes below this show, but Dan, we're almost out of time here, mate. I've just got one little black swan type question.A few of our readers have written in asking possibly off the back of one of Tom's observation, he's been writing a little bit lately about the slowdown in China and the bursting property market there. I think he noted that the Wall Street Journal had called the Chinese property market the single biggest asset class by value on the planet and that's something in the order of $53 trillion or some absolutely mind-boggling number there.Given what's happening over there in China, are you at all worried about being dragged into a global recession? What that knock-on might look like with regards to oil prices? How does that impact the thesis? I know it's kind of a big question to end on, but...Dan Denning: No. It's a great question. I mean, those are the things we're paid to think about and try to figure out ahead of time. I think it sort of graduates in scope. If you want to start with the oil markets, if China's in a recession or if they're locking down cities or if the property market collapses, or if there's disruption in their property market that causes slower economic growth, then that's going to impact their demand on oil.They've also shut down a bunch of factories in different places, so I think it has impacted oil demand, which has shown up in the oil price, which was something frankly I had neglected to pay attention to because you just talk about the global oil market and you forget that there are some components of it that drive the price more than others. That I think is something worth keeping an eye on.I think the two other... To be concise, there are probably two other things we'd look at. One is the financial stability in China and how that plays into whether China has an alternative to the dollar or the truth is China's capital market is still mostly closed to the rest of the world so they could have a property collapse and their banks could collapse, but the government would absorb those losses or they'd transfer them to someone else in the system.That doesn't mean it wouldn't have a domestic impact. When people have money that they think is in a bank account and it turns out that it's in an investment product and they can't get that money, then that makes people upset. We see some of those stories, probably not as much as we should, but I think that's also a cautionary tale for investors in the West and the United States is that money in the bank. Yeah, I mean, it's FDIC insured so I don't want to suggest that it could be seized like that, but that's what can happen.China's capital markets aren't ready for prime time. It's not going to replace the dollar or the U.S. bond market anytime soon, but I think the highest level about instability in China economically is how it plays into their strategy with regard to Taiwan and challenging the United States militarily.We didn't talk about those things because basically from when China entered the World Trade Organization in 2000, until the beginning of the pandemic, there was what we called the symbiotic relationship between China and the United States where China exported goods to the U.S., generated huge trade surpluses, which it reinvested in its own economy to build its infrastructure to re-migrate about 500 million people from the countryside to the cities. That's done. It's not entirely done.In fact, it may have been overdone in terms of the amount of investment they made in real estate to resettle those people. But if you have an economy where voters... Well, they don't really vote, but if you've got people that are unhappy because they're not sure their money is safe anymore, and you've got a conflict with Taiwan, and you're trying to decide whether the Russian war and Ukraine gives you an opportunity to conduct a military operation that the U.S. might not be able to resist, those are all things that... They're not black swans, because we can talk about them.A black swan would be something we just didn't even think about and weren't prepared for. We know that there's a possibility for military conflict in East Asia. We don't know if it'll be the North Koreans. We don't know if it would be the Chinese. We have no idea if China would suddenly say, "You know what? We're not worried about our economic situation anymore. We're going for territorial acquisition maybe as a way to distract our people from our crashing economy."As you said, China's property market is something like 300% of GDP. It's a massive sector which has suffered from massive inflation. It's one of those you have to keep your eye on because when you take your eye off it, that's when it's most likely to blindside you literally because we're all paying attention to semantic debates over what a recession is or over where interest rates will top out.In the meantime, you've got this giant lumbering economy that may be in crisis mode, and they're making noises about a conflict. Yeah, it's an excellent question and we'll be covering it more for the rest of the year, for sure.Joel Bowman: Excellent. All right. Well, just on the subject of recession, obviously, Dan, the correct definition is a recession is that it's only a recession if it comes from the recession province in France, otherwise it's just a sparkling economic gut punch. Mate, your readers, our readers, Bonner Private Research readers are going to be able to catch all of your weekly updates every Friday.Tom writes to our readers every Wednesday, so please be on the lookout, members, for those twice weekly updates. Again, as I said, it's bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com. Check out the dollar report, the strategy report, trade of the decade report and all the transcripts that we post from our special private summits, the latest of which Bill convened a round table to ask our panel, nine guests, two very simple questions, that is to say, what is going on in the markets and what are you doing with your personal money?We had a bunch of newsletter veterans, many of whom our readers would recognize. Alex Green, Porter Stansberry, Doug Casey, Byron, yourself, Tom, Rick Rule, and others besides. I'm sure I'm forgetting some. Jim Rickards.Anyway, it was a really all-star lineup. Obviously not everyone agreed because we had nine different people looking at different sectors of the market and trying to keep their eyes on this huge, complex global setup. Anyway, lots and lots of really interesting thoughts there. Again, head over to the Substack page where readers will be able to check that out. In the meantime, Dan, keep safe up there in Laramie, mate, and we'll catch up again very shortly. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/subscribe

And now for some more Fatal Conceits…Last week we brought you Part I of our conversation with Harvard trained geologist and natural resources expert, Byron King. There was a lot on the table for discussion.For instance…Have you noticed news from the Ukraine seems to have dwindled over recent weeks? What was once non-stop, wall-to-wall coverage now garners comparatively little attention. Of course, there are other issues at hand… like inflation at a four-decade high… the worst start to the year for stock markets in half a century… and for bond markets in over 200 years… And now, we learn that the US has registered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP… the common definition for a recession, and the one practically everyone who follows the economy at all still uses. But all that doesn't mean the impacts of the war – and the west's response to it – are not working their way through the system. In fact, the knock-on effects for international energy markets, global supply chains and even sovereign currencies could hardly be overstated. As usual, Byron had plenty of insights on all of the above, and more. (If you missed Part I of our conversation, you can catch up here.)In Part II of the discussion, we pick up the action with the idea of a “methane-backed ruble.” That is, what happens if and when Mr. Putin decides he wants to back his national currency, which is stronger today than it was before the first tank rolled across the Ukrainian border, with Mother Russia's vast energy reserves? What does that do to the heretofore assumed petrodollar hegemony? Might Japan, almost entirely dependent on foreign energy (mostly from Russia), be forced to settle its contracts in Russian rubles? What are the other BRICS nations (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) thinking, as they stand by and watch the weaponization of the US dollar? Might an alternative to the petrodollar begin to look attractive to them?There's so much to cover, from the war itself to Russian military supplies, the unipolar verses multipolar political landscape, the philosophy of Eurasianism and much, much more…You can listen to the entire episode by simply hitting play above or downloading the Substack app (see the little headphones button there to listen in). Oh, and if you like what you hear, please help us spread the word by sharing this episode with comrades and enemy combatants alike, right here…For Bonner Private Research members, there's a full transcript, lightly edited for clarity, below the paywall and on our Substack Page. If you're not already a subscriber, but would like to enjoy the many benefits that come with membership, you can sort that out right here.We hope you enjoy the show…Cheers,Joel BowmanJoel Bowman:Welcome back to another Fatal Conceits Podcast, dear listener. A show about money, markets, mobs, and manias. Not necessarily in that order, of course. If you haven't already done so, please feel free to check us out on Substack. You can find us at bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com. There, you'll find hundreds of articles on everything from high finance to lowly politics, plenty of in-depth research reports, and of course, many more conversations like this under the Fatal Conceits Podcast tab at the top of the page.In part one of my conversation with Byron King, which we published last week, he and I spoke about the ongoing war in the Ukraine and what that means for international energy markets. Specifically, Germany's coming "energy Stalingrad." We also looked at what a decade or more of under investment in the real, stuff-based economy means for us today. That's everything from a lack of real investment in research and development through to a paucity of human capital. And we spoke about the ongoing financialization of the Western economies and what that might look like in reverse, during a de-globalization phase. If you haven't already done so, you can check out part one of my conversation with Byron King. Again, that's on our Substack page at bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com. In today's episode, we bring you part two of my conversation with Byron. We pick up the action while we're wondering about the potential of a gold and/or methane backed ruble. What impact might that have on global markets and, of course, the long enjoyed petrodollar hegemony. Might all that be coming to an end? I also ask Byron where he sees markets headed for the back half of the year and ask what he's doing personally with his own investments. There's all that, and plenty more, on the table in today's conversation. I invite you to please enjoy it after the break. Getting back to the money underpinning all of this, Byron, I asked you back in May about the possibility of a golden/gaseous ruble. You called it a methane-backed ruble, I think. How has that played out now? You mentioned, obviously, Putin playing his hand with the energy markets. What developments are you seeing along the lines of a potential bifurcation of global monetary systems and so forth?Byron King:Oh, I think that we are watching a slow unfolding of the next step of de-dollarization. I don't think the Russians perceive any real reason to make it all happen in a hurry. The Russians are still insisting on rubles for natural gas, and so there are countries in Europe that are making these deals. I mean, Hungary is like, "The rest of you guys in the EU, you do what you want, but we're Hungary. We want natural gas. We get cold in the wintertime. We want that Russian natural gas," and the Russians are like, "Yeah, sure. We'll make you a deal, and we'll work it out with you." Serbia is in the same boat.There are companies in Italy, in fact, that are again talking with the Russians. "Listen, guys. We want to work with you. We want to make a deal with you." You see that, but at the same time, you've got the high level political types. The Northern European political honchos, who are still banging the drum about how we're going to sanction Russia. "We're not going to buy anything from them," and everything else. It doesn't matter to Russia. They're going to sell their oil, their gas, etcetera to China, to India. Russia just fired a huge shot across the bow over in the Far East with the Sakhalin-2 project, where they essentially nationalized it.They said, "I mean, we know that you foreign companies own sections of this, but we're taking them from you and it's ours now." Now, if you're Japan and you are entirely reliant, 98% reliant on imported energy, much of which is Russian oil, Russian natural gas, you have to be looking at this and thinking, "Oh, my God. Holy smokes. Now, what?" There's so many things going on. There's so many moving parts to it. I mean, the Saudis are talking about not adhering a hundred percent to the old petrodollar idea.Joel Bowman:They're in talks with the Chinese, right?Byron King:Yeah. They're making deals with the Chinese to sell oil in Yuan. The Saudis, they'll take Chinese Yuan, and then they'll go back to China and buy Chinese things.Joel Bowman:And that's 25% of the Saudi total (oil) exports, straight to China, a not insignificant portion. And so, what happens then with Japan? To go back to the Far East, for example. If, let's say, Mr. Putin decides, for his next chessboard move, that he's going to demand gas sold down into Japan – again, another not insignificant market – if he demands that be settled in rubles?Byron King:If they want to keep their houses warm, their industry's running, the chemical industry working, they're going to have to make a deal with the Gazprombank. I mean, Gazprombank, the bank owned by Gazprom, is set up to say, "Okay. We will take your Japanese yen," or, "We'll take your dollars. We, the bank, and we'll convert them to rubles. We will be able to say that you are buying gas in rubles." But, what's really going on here is, there's an international currency exchange going on. Yen for dollars, dollars for rubles, however the wiring diagram is on any given transaction.But what it does, it strengthens the ruble as a currency. I mean, the ruble today is a stronger currency than it was back in February. Again, before the first Russian tank rolled across the border. I mean, when President Biden says, "Oh, we've turned the ruble to rubble," it's like, "Well, that didn't last very long now, did it?" Yeah, sure. In the context of a week or two, you crashed the ruble and things were in turmoil for a little bit, and then the ruble just got stronger and stronger and stronger. We talked about this before. When the Russians said, "We'll pay 5000 rubles per gram of gold." That 5000 has changed since then, but that's still out there.There is a ruble to gold, ruble to natural gas, hence energy to gold if you do your geometry, your 10th grade geometry. If you start to connect these little angles here, there is a ruble energy gold connection to whatever the price of natural gas is, or gold is, in dollars, that feeds back into the strength of the ruble. I think one of the big issues is not what happens when the dollar collapses. "When the dollar collapses." It's what happens after. What will replace it?Joel Bowman:Right. What replaces a petrodollar? What does that look like geopolitically as well, very interestingly, because the US, since the collapse of the Soviet Union back in '89 or '90, has maintained this dollar hedgemony, as a kind of unipolar superpower in the world. As you mentioned at the beginning of our conversation, 30 years of diplomacy that has gotten us essentially to where we are today. Now, it looks like that is being turned to rubble. Just to point out the facts.Byron King:Absolutely. I mean, I think most Americans have a sense that, "America, we're a big powerful country," and everything. If you said to them, "Do you understand the concept of a unipower," They would think, "Well..." If you talked it through, they'd be like, "Yeah, okay. That means we're number one," and all this sort of thing. Well, that's a myth. That is a myth. That's mythology, because America is not number one. We are not an energy-dependent country anymore. We have completely mismanaged our own internal energy system. We're having brownouts and blackouts across the country as the summer unfolds. We've mismanaged basic things, like food supply. I mean, what big powerful country doesn't have baby formula for months at a time? It's crazy.I mean, it's not that America is a weak nation. No, we're not, but the rest of the world, they're coming out of their shells. Industrially, there is simply no competition in basic industry to, say, China. I mean, they pour over a billion tons of steel a year. The United States last year, 2021, poured 85 million. I mean, it was 12 to one. China poured 12 tons of steel for every ton that the US poured. What'd they do with it? Well, they're building China. Building railroads, building cities, building ships, building whatever. Big country, big build out. In terms of Russia and Russian technology, there's this very strange concept in the US and in the West that the Russians are... "They're dumb. They can't do anything right," and all this sort of stuff. I don't know about that.I mean, if you look at the International Space Station orbiting over the earth, two thirds of that space station was built by Russia. I mean, for 10 years, we couldn't even get our astronauts up there without riding on Russian rockets. When people say, "Well, they're getting their butts kicked in Ukraine." No, they're not. I mean, who says that? They must be reading Western propaganda, because if you actually follow the facts on the ground, the Russians are using maybe 20% of their combat power in Ukraine. They're moving at their own pace. They've got weapons and systems behind the lines that they've never used just because they don't want to show us what they look like, but we suspect we know what they are. We don't ever want our guys to face their guys using those weapons, because it's going to be a mess.Putin talks about "new physical principles." Well, that gets back to the unipolar/multipolar aspect of the world. The world is going multipolar. The West has a certain philosophy about what life is and what the culture should be, but so does Russia. There's a concept in Russia, and very, very few people talk about it outside of Russia, it's called Eurasianism. There's a whole school of thought around this in Russia now. It's like, "We are not Europeans. Especially, we're not you Western Europeans, with all your decadence and all your weirdness. We are slightly European, but we're really Eurasians because we span the continent. The iron ribbon of the Siberian railroad ties us together." But, there is a whole school of thought in Russia called Eurasianism. That is how they see their future.That's a whole talk in and of itself. I mean, people write books about it. If anybody's listening to this and they're curious, go to Amazon and dial in "Eurasianism" and you'll find a whole bunch of books all about it written by ivory tower scholars. It's not something that you're going to hear on 60 Minutes, or the nightly news, or something like that, but that philosophically is what's animating a lot of what's going on in Russia, Russia-China, Central Asia with all the 'stans down into India. There is a whole sense that, "Okay. You Westerners, you had your couple of centuries of expansion, colonialism, and all that sort of stuff. You've played a really good game with this petrodollar thing for half a century. You pay us these alleged petrodollars and we send you real tankers full of oil. The dollars never even leave your country, because they wind up back in your banks and your treasury bonds. Somehow or another, we send you stuff, but we don't anything back for it. We're coming to the ending whistle of that game. It's just a question of when, not if.Joel Bowman:It does seem ultimately a kind of war of attrition, as you mentioned, with Russia happy to bide its time there on its Western front. It does seem like Putin will be able to go without Netflix and McDonald's for a lot longer than the West will be able to go without titanium and noble gases, for example.Byron King:Absolutely. People say these things that are just silly. They say, "Oh, the Russians are running out of ammunition." Every two weeks, there's a headline, but they have another two weeks worth of ammunition. No, they're not. I mean, are you kidding? ILook, I'm an American retired military guy and I know, I absolutely know Russia has entire mountains hollowed out filled with ammunition, with train tracks running right into them. If they need ammo, they just load up another train and off it goes. They have everything they need, whereas in the US... For example, just look at US artillery round production for the last, say, 10 years. If you took every single artillery round that the US Army Marine Corps produced in the last 10 years, and you somehow magically put them in Ukraine and fired them off, you would have about a month's worth of ammunition supply. 10 years would be shot off in about four or five weeks.Joel Bowman:That's incredible.Byron King:Right. The last three years of ammunition production would probably last about five days. I mean, that's the rate of expenditure. We say, "Well, we'll just buy more ammo." No, we won't. You need an ammunition factory to do that. You need a big plant. You need steel, you need chemicals, you need electronics. You need people who actually know what they're doing. People think, "Oh, yeah. You just crank those ammo rounds out like hot dogs," or something. Actually, no. You don't. I mean, you practically hand build an artillery shell, which means you need hands, which means you need somebody attached to the hands with a brain inside their head who knows what they're doing. Russia has factories for this. Russia has entire cities where they do this stuff. We don't in the United States, nor in the rest of NATO and everywhere else. It's depressing to talk about, except it happens to be true.Joel Bowman:Yeah. Again, if it hasn't been clear thus far in the discussion, this is just the facts. This isn't in praise of one side or another. This is just trying to basically get to the bottom of what's going on without any political persuasion here. Just the facts, as I said, but it does appear, when you read the Western media, that the "two weeks to run out of Russian ammunition" is the new "two weeks to flatten the curve." And we know how that claim went. Byron, I know you've got a shoot off for another appointment here. Finally, I've got a quick question from our mutual friend, Bill Bonner, for you. It's going to be a huge, huge achievement for you to condense an answer into the couple of minutes that we've got remaining, but maybe you can give a plug for some of your own writings, let people know where they can find all that good stuff. But to Bill's questions, he wants to know, Byron, what the hell is going on in the markets, and what are you doing with your own money?Byron King:Well, I am as worried as anybody else about the markets. The markets have slid down. I think they have further to fall. I mean, I think they could plateau along for a while, but I think they could also fall some more. It's July, and in August, half the world goes on vacation, although that doesn't mean that bad things don't happen in August. Then in the fall, typically... If we're going to have another market crash, why not in the fall? But me? I'm invested in mines and miners. A whole bunch of juniors that I know very well. And when I invest in a junior mining company, it's because I know the people. It's because I've visited the project, the site. It's because I've held the core from the drill rig in my hand. It's because I've looked at what they have. I believe in the asset. I believe in the technical people. I believe in the management. When I'm investing, that is what I do.I think energy has a nice, long upside to it. We've passed that inflection point where we can just fix it with a quick remedy, or whatever. Standby for energy to be more and more expensive over time. We were talking about Germany, and we were talking about exporting LNG from North America to Europe. Well, if we really do turn natural gas into a global commodity ,as LNG, then we in North America are going to be paying far higher prices. If you heat with natural gas, or you use natural gas for industry, it's going up.Where I live, I heat our house with natural gas, and I fully expect my natural gas bill to triple this coming winter. Like a lot of other people, I have cut back on things. I mean, I drive less because gasoline is twice the price. I'm a much more discerning shopper in the supermarket. I actually look at the labels and look at the price tags on things before I toss them in the cart. The travel that I'm doing, it's business-oriented travel. If I can get somebody else to pay for it, that's even better. Get the company that I'm going to go visit to pony up. "Okay. I'll come and look at you, but you guys have to share the burden here." Now, I'm not slash-your-wrist depressed, or anything like that. No, I think there's incredible opportunities out there for patient investors who are looking for bargains. But you've gotta be willing to ride the rough waves.I think gold/silver are wealth preservers over time. It's just a question of when and how long. Other things, like copper and other base metals, they absolutely have to do well because there's not enough out there considering the future demand that's happening as we speak. I mean, the battery metals, the technology metals. We could talk about that all day, but there are some incredible opportunities out there just waiting, which is not to say that in biotech, in robotics, in AI, and in medical system people aren't going to be making huge amounts of money investing in that too. That's just not my strength. If you're looking for the best biomedical ideas, I'm not your guy. But, in terms of what I'm looking at right now? Well, this is the 78th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire, back in 1944. Then, Nixon took the world off of the Bretton Woods standard in 1971, so it's the 51st anniversary of that come August 15th.I anticipate that there is going to be upheaval in the basic units of currency that we use to denominate everything. I mean, we call them dollars now. A long time ago, people called them seashells, or whatever. For a while, people called them gold. What's going to replace the dollar? I don't know, but something is. Something's going to. I think, on the other side of that event horizon, you want to have real things that will preserve your value in whatever it is that they are denominated in or calculated in. At some point or another, a chunk of copper is always going to be worth something. This copper is from Keweenaw Peninsula, Upper Peninsula of Northern Michigan. This is elemental, native copper. This got pulled out of a rock by a glacier. That's why it's rounded looking. This other one here is from Keweenaw too, but this I chopped this one out of a rock. This was copper. Anyhow. This stuff is future wealth, is preserving your wealth.Joel Bowman:Sounds like "stuff" is due for a comeback. And if there's anybody who knows a thing or two about getting stuff out of rocks and from under basins and subterranean, high-pressure deposits, it's Byron King. Mate, thank you so much for giving us the low down on everything from the geopolitics unfolding over in Europe to what we can expect back here in the West, in the Americas. And we didn't even get to South America in this call. We'll have to save that for an entire another discussion.Byron King:Another time. Thanks so much, Joel.Joel Bowman:And thanks to you, Byron. Thanks so much for your time. Always a pleasure to chat to you. Again, readers please head on over to bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com for many more conversations like this and plenty of articles, reports, and other resources besides. Again, it's been a pleasure. This is Joel Bowman for the Fatal Conceits Podcast. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/subscribe

Mike Penna talks with Byron King from the Bloodhorse about the latest in the Bob Baffert saga. 

Presented by TwinSpires. Trainer Brad Cox previews his runners in Saturday's stakes, Byron King from Blood-Horse discusses Bob Baffert's 1-year NYRA suspension, Breeders' Cup VP of Racing Josh Christian talks about the 2022 Challenge series, James Scully previews 3 races to watch in this week's TwinSpires Triple Play, Hall of Fame turf writer Jennie Rees joins Dale Romans & Tim Wilkin on a special "I Ask, They Answer" presented by the University of Louisville Equine Industry Program in the College of Business. Plus, Kurt Becker's Stroll Through Racing History presented by Keeneland and Unsung Heroes presented by Woodbine Entertainment

Betting with Bobby presented by Caesars Racebook. Featuring guests Byron King from Bloodhorse and jockey agent, Jose Santos Jr. 

EJ and Lane talk about the Belmont Stakes with Byron King ,news editor for The Bloodhorse Magazine and Bloodhorse Daily, who shares this episode with Derby winning trainer Eric Reed (Rich Strike) and trainer Greg Foley.

On this Episode of the South Carolina Goodlife Podcast, your host Byron King sits down with Don Frierson & Alyssa Barker, investigators from the SC Human Affairs Commision ,to learn about the process for fair housing complaints. Realtors will learn about testers, real life fair housing cases, and risk management to be in full compliance with the fair housing laws.

In imposing sanctions on Russia, we're weaponizing the US dollar. But most weapons in a war get blown up.  Are we, in effect, destroying our monetary system? And are our efforts to isolate Russia from the global economy giving us the results we want? Byron King is a Harvard-trained geologist and a former aide to the US Chief of Naval Operations. He also happens to be our resident go-to source for military insights and a regular contributor at Bonner Private Research, covering energy, precious metals and the economy. On this episode of The Wiggin Sessions, Byron joins me to share his insight on Russia's motive for invading Ukraine, explaining how NATO evolved after the Cold War and why a reset of the 'defensive alliance' is long overdue.  Byron discusses how sanctions against Russia are disrupting global commodities markets and describes America's 'theory of victory' on weaponizing the US dollar--and why it's unlikely to succeed. Listen in to understand why an economic recession is inevitable and get Byron's take on what happens if the US dollar loses its reserve currency status.  Key Takeaways Byron's history in the Navy and how it informs his perspective on NATO Bryon's insight around Russia's motive for invading Ukraine Russia's perspective that America did not win the Cold War What Byron makes of Zelensky's call to reset our political institutions to protect Ukraine How NATO evolved after the Cold War and why a 'defensive alliance with no defense' is problematic How sanctions against Russia are disrupting commodities markets and impacting ordinary citizens of Russia, Europe and the US America's 'theory of victory' on weaponizing the US dollar (and why it's unlikely to succeed) Evidence that the US dollar could lose its reserve currency status How a country's monetary system has power as a derivative of its military power and vice versa How Byron thinks about the potential for a crypto SDR How we need rare earths to build the electronics we rely on and the consequences of our anti-mining policy Why a recession is inevitable and how it will lead to a 'resurgence of adultism' Connect with Byron King Byron at Bonner Private Research  Byron on Twitter Connect with Addison Wiggin Consilience Financial Be sure to follow The Wiggin Sessions on your socials. You can find me on— Facebook @thewigginsessions Instagram @thewigginsessions Twitter @WigginSessions Resources  5-Minute Forecast President Zelensky's Address to Congress Agora Financial Klaus Schwab Mark Carney Jim Rickards at The Daily Reckoning Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act Yom Kippur War ‘Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales' in The Wall Street Journal Trilogy Metals Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis by William Bonner and Addison Wiggin The Demise of the Dollar... And Why It's Even Better for Your Investments by Addison Wiggin Bretton Woods Jim Rickards on Special Drawing Rights Pete Buttigieg on 60 Minutes

Presented by TwinSpires. Mike Penna brings you the latest in thoroughbred racing. Featuring Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee and Dave Grening discuss top Oaks & Derby contenders in Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana & New York, Byron King from Blood-Horse shares his thoughts on west coast contenders and previews his latest Derby Dozen, Cricket Goodall, Executive Director of the Maryland Horse Breeders Association, and breeder Sabrina Moore reflect upon Horse of the Year Knicks Go, Julien Leparoux takes your calls in this week's edition of 'You Be the Host', and 'I Ask,They Answer' with trainer Dale Romans & turf writer Tim Wilkin presented by the University of Louisville Equine Industry Program in the College of Business. Plus, Kurt Becker's Stroll Through Racing History presented by Keeneland, Calling All Three-Year-Olds with Bobby Neuman presented by Spendthrift and Unsung Heroes presented by Woodbine Entertainment

As we get farther away from the ideals of the Old Right, the Progressives in power continue to pump money into the economy and destroy the value of the dollar.  So, what can you do to navigate rising inflation? How might strategic investments in precious metals and rare earths protect your wealth in the age of Bidenomics? Byron King is our in-house resource for military and geopolitical matters and the author of the online newsletter Whiskey & Gunpowder. He also happens to be a Harvard-trained geologist who's gotten to know some of the best mining teams on the planet. On this episode of The Wiggin Sessions, Byron joins me to discuss what happened to the Old Right and its idea of the ‘citizen representative,' explaining how men like John T. Flynn, H. L. Mencken and Garet Garrett fought against the early decades of progressivism. Byron walks us through the evolution of the international monetary system from the gold standard to the petrodollar, predicting how we might value currencies moving forward and describing how Bidenomics is causing our current workforce shortages and rising inflation. Listen in for insight around China's dominance in the rare earths race and get Byron's top investment picks in precious metals, energy and mining. Key Takeaways   How the Old Right fought against the early decades of progressivism  What happened to the idea of the ‘citizen representative' The consequences we face from deindustrializing the country How Bidenomics contributes to our current workforce shortages and inflation The history of the USD's shift from the gold standard to the petrodollar How SDRs may replace the dollar as the new world currency Why crypto needs a credit system before it can run a global economy  Why China is winning the rare earths race and what the US needs to do to catch up Byron's top investment picks in precious metals, energy and mining Connect with Byron King Whiskey & Gunpowder Connect with Addison Wiggin Consilience Financial Be sure to follow The Wiggin Sessions on your socials. You can find me on— Facebook @thewigginsessions Instagram @thewigginsessions Twitter @WigginSessions Resources John T. Flynn Garet Garrett L. Mencken The Bretton Woods Agreement Nixon Closes the Gold Window Jim Rickards Jim Rickards on SDRs Chinese Sanctions on Lockheed Barrick Gold Corporation Newmont Agnico Eagle Mines Limited Sprott Gold Equity Fund Defense Metals Appia Energy Corporation

Join your host, SCR Sr. VP & General Counsel Byron King as he sits down with your SCR Legal Team - Austin Smallwood, Director of Legal & Regulatory Affairs & Tiara Pitts, Director of Fair Housing Policy. They'll discuss the most common issues that REALTORS® face that could lead to an ethics complaint and walk you through how to avoid these pitfalls.

2020 was a volatile year. And both the pandemic and the political fireworks around the election have an influence on the value of the US dollar. Does that mean the value of precious metals is on the rise? And can gold still protect your wealth? Byron King is a Harvard-trained biologist and former aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. He is also our resident gold and mining expert and Managing Editor of Whiskey & Gunpowder. On this pre-election episode of The Wiggin Sessions, Byron joins me to discuss the civil unrest surrounding the 2020 presidential election, explaining what we can learn from history about tearing down a country's institutions and how the political turmoil might impact precious metals. Byron shares the underreported story of how China's factory shutdowns are ‘breaking the supply chain of the world' and weighs in on why it's crucial for the US and Canada to build its own rare earth industry.  Listen in for Byron's insight on what pumping money into the economy means for gold, where all that stimulus money is likely to go, and how long the dollar will remain the reserve currency of the world. Key Takeaways   Byron's background as a geologist in the oil and gas industry, naval fighter pilot and writer How the current political environment parallels that of the 1930's and Byron's concerns about stacking Congress and the Supreme Court What we can learn from the French Revolution about the danger in tearing down institutions  Why a country needs its strategic narrative How Byron thinks about pumping money into the economy—historically and during the pandemic Where the stimulus money is likely to go (e.g.: real estate, precious metals and paper assets) Why people moving out of the cities is a long-term trend The underreported story of how China's factory shutdowns are breaking the supply chain of the world Why it's crucial for the US and Canada to build its own rare earth industry and what makes battery metals the way of the future How our current circumstances (i.e.: civil unrest, low velocity of money) might impact the value of the dollar and what that means for gold What might happen to the stock market in the aftermath of the presidential election How long the dollar will remain the reserve currency of the world Connect with Byron King Whiskey & Gunpowder Connect with Addison Wiggin Consilience Financial Be sure to follow The Wiggin Sessions on your socials. You can find me on— Facebook @thewigginsessions Instagram @thewigginsessions Twitter @WigginSessions Resources John T. Flynn Garet Garrett National Industrial Recovery Act L. A. Schecter Poultry Corporation v. United States The Roots of American Order by Russell Kirk Edmund Burke Howard Zinn Federal Reserve Act Jim Rickards China's Embargo on Lockheed Martin Medallion Resources Mountain Pass Piedmont Limited John Mauldin Whiskey Rebellion Bretton Woods System

Jason makes an announcement about the BARN and we welcome in Byron King from Kentucky Downs to talk about the opening day, doing the morning line, and more!