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Palisade Radio is the largest online discussion platform for junior mining globally. Each week, host Collin Kettell interviews top experts in the energy and mining space to discuss macro trends and identify strong investment ideas. With over 1,000,000 views in just three years and videos viewed from…

Collin Kettell


    • Jan 25, 2023 LATEST EPISODE
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    • 47m AVG DURATION
    • 515 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Palisade Radio

    David Murrin: Part 2 – Golds Time to Shine is Just Coming Into View

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2023 38:24


    This episode is broken into two parts. This is part two. David continues the conversation discussing which commodities will be highly strategic. He believes all the metals are set to take off along with oil. David discusses the role of commodities in the conflicts of the world and how governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to secure essential resources and protect their economies. He also talks about the collapse of real wealth due to inflationary dynamics and asset price depreciation, as well as the devaluation of the dollar due to the money printing of central banks. He argues that the only lever central banks have to fight inflation is to raise rates, but this could have a crushing effect on markets and people's wealth. David discusses various geopolitical themes to watch for in the coming year, such as the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, and inflation. David predicts that China may make a move soon and that the US, Japan, and South Korea would be the targets of a possible preemptive strike. He believes that Russia does not have the ability to mount an effective offensive in Ukraine and the Allies in NATO are prepared to back a Ukrainian victory. David also talks about the importance of being prepared for surprises and adapting to changing conditions. Finally, he reflects on the human desire to fight, noting that warfare can bring people together for a common cause. 0:00 - Intro0:24 - Strategic Commodities3:49 - China & Supply Chains7:14 - Real Wealth Collapse9:05 - Dollar & Devaluation11:50 - Inflation Path & Rates14:37 - Gold the Anti-Entropic19:04 - Metals & Mining Stocks23:02 - Geopolitical Themes29:40 - Change & Perspective37:03 - Wrap Up Talking Points From this Episode Commodities such as metals, oil, and other essential resources are set to take off in 2021 and governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to protect their economies.Central banks are likely to raise interest rates to fight inflation, which could have a crushing effect on markets and people's wealth.Geopolitical themes to watch for in 2021 include the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, inflation, and potential preemptive strikes. Additionally, the human desire to fight can bring people together for a common cause. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior. In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank. In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business,

    David Murrin: Part 1 – The U.S. and Europe are in a Terminal State of Decline

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2023 41:41


    This episode is broken into two parts, second part will be out Wednesday. Tom Bodrovics interviews global forecaster and author David Murrin on the topic of the road to war being peppered with polarization. Murrin explains that the human strategy for survival is through social structures, and that wars between a weaker system and a rising system are necessary to create a better outcome. He also explains that war is regulated by the Kondratiev cycle which takes place every 56 years. He then talks about how China is seen as the primary polarizer, with America as the secondary polarizer. He then moves on to discussing Germany and how it has not yet responded with secondary polarization. He believes that Germany's reunification with East Germany was a reverse takeover, and that Germany has been subverted by Putin. Murrin then talks about the UK's response to Russia, and how misguided it is to not be increasing defense spending while at war with Russia. He says that the UK needs to be spending 5% of its budget on defense until the threat of China and Russia is abated. David discusses the importance of lateral thinking, particularly in times of war. He posits that dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world. He explains the concepts of hunter-gatherers and agrarianism, pointing out that when the Western world is in decline, there is a disproportionate number of linear leaders who aren't able to adapt. He then moves on to discuss his five stages of empire model, which is a construct to explain human social systems, and the Kondratiev cycle. Central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to their linear thinking. He argues that the current wave of inflation is likely to lead to further escalation of wars and that China's need for commodities will drive its agenda. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Polarization & War6:07 - Germany's Response15:30 - Political Oscillations16:53 - Stages of (Empire) Decline27:46 - Disordered Thinkers35:49 - Commodity Cycles Talking Points From This Episode David Murrin discusses the Kondratiev cycle, which takes place every 56 years and regulates war.According to Murrin, dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world.Murrin explains how war is often linked to commodities and how central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to linear thinking. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior. In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank. In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's ...

    Matthew Piepenburg: The Great Reset – Weaponizing Our Debt-Soaked World

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2023 64:08


    Matt Piepenburg once again joins Tom Bodrovics on Palisades to discuss the Great Reset proposed by Klaus Schwab, and how it is a symptom of a broken and debt-soaked developed economy. Matt believes Schwab is an opportunist taking advantage of the COVID crisis, and his idea of 'stakeholder capitalism' is actually extreme centralization. This has never worked in history and has led to an addiction to debt, which has been weaponized by pharmaceutical companies, science, the media, political parties, and regulatory bodies. Matt argues that journalists are no longer unbiased and have become propaganda tools. He believes many politicians have become opportunists and most people are good, but their faith in politicians is fracturing. Matt believes that any type of centralized system goes against human nature and the debt crisis has caused a massive wealth transfer from the lower and middle classes to the top 10%. This has left people too tired and too debt-strapped to take a stand for their freedom and makes them vulnerable to opportunists like Schwab. Matt argues that the stock market has gone up due to money printing and rate repression, which is not what Adam Smith or free market capitalism was designed for. This has been great for the top 10% of American wealth, but it has destroyed the middle class and caused an addiction to this type of easy money. Matt believes that central bank policies have had an inflationary, social, wealth transfer, or political effect, which Ben Bernanke was awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics for. He calls out George Santos and Sam Bankman-Fried for their lies, and believes politicians should be held accountable for their decisions. Matt believes that an objective truth is needed to determine what is right and wrong, and that the inflation scale used to measure the economy is completely fraudulent yet still widely accepted. He believes the Fed's pivot to quantitative easing will cause hyperinflation and further fracture faith in the Fed. He suggests that a reset may be the only option, but this could be highly chaotic and could be used to control people. Matt explains that gold is a valuable asset for currencies and is an inflation hedge. He also likes agricultural land and Bitcoin's narrative, as gold offers certainty and security. He believes the US will experience stagflation, with slow growth and rising inflation, and that the Fed's pivot will be very dangerous. Matt encourages people to think more critically, question what they are being told, and be open-minded to changing their opinions. He believes sound money, regardless of what form it takes, is the solution to the issues that come with printing money. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - The Great Reset & Debt13:45 - Collectivism Vs. Freedom23:13 - Free Markets Are History29:25 - Metrics and Fictions31:58 - Fed Pivot & Narratives43:40 - Modern Journalism50:33 - Sound Money Alternatives55:46 - Quantitative Kool Aid1:02:22 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Klaus Schwab's Great Reset is a symptom of the broken and debt-soaked developed economy.The debt crisis has caused an addiction to debt and weaponization of pharmaceutical companies, the media, political parties and regulatory bodies.Centralized systems goes against human nature and has caused a massive wealth transfer.Gold offers certainty and security as it cannot be mouse-clicked, hacked, or recreated and can't be controlled in the same way as a central bank digital currency. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerlandWebsite: https://goldswitzerland.com/Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c Matthew Piepenburg is the Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and the acclaimed author of the Amazon #1 Release, "Rigged to Fail". He is fluent in French, German and English, and a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA) and the University of Michigan (JD). Prior to joining MAM,

    Michael Oliver: Fed has Damaged Markets and Its Credibility

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2023 53:36


    Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael discusses where we are in the bear market and how much longer it could last. He believes the next lows will set the tone for the bear market. Continued weakness in the Nasdaq is very bearish for broader equities, and since last June, there has been a lot of sideways chop in the S&P. A sell-off after the next high is certainly a possibility, and we should expect more volatility in markets this year. The opposite is true of silver and gold, as the Fed is likely to become concerned about problems in the financial sector. Janet Yellen has commented on the lack of liquidity in the bond markets, and though 30-year bonds are in rally mode, Michael is skeptical that rates have peaked. A decline in bonds with rising yields seems likely. There is also pressure on the Fed which could lead to its demise in a few years. We've seen a lot of paper assets decline in the past year, while gold and commodities have held up well. Consumer credit is skyrocketing, along with persistent inflation that is hitting families hard. Repossessions and mortgage failures are likely. If there is a new wave up in commodities, it will only further erode confidence in our leaders. Silver's spread has broken out and is doing quite well in percentage terms; Michael compares gold's historic moves with today's, noting historically it's not unusual for gold to have eight-fold moves in a few years. He thinks the same could happen with silver and doesn't rule out $200 silver. He believes Bitcoin has been beaten up enough and will move sideways for some time. Uranium has also been holding up well compared with pullbacks in oil and natural gas. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Bear Market Thoughts5:45 - S&P, Gold & Silver7:50 - Rate Hikes & Fed12:08 - Dollar Confidence14:50 - Fed's Options & Impact20:53 - Inflation & Commodities28:38 - Blame The Fed?34:23 - Energy & Investors37:28 - Gold Strength & Silver45:10 - Bitcoin Reliability48:32 - Thoughts on Uranium51:02 - Expect a Volatile 202352:35 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The bear market and how much longer it could last.Gold and silver have been performing opposite to the bear market.An eight-fold move in gold is possible and has occurred historically.The Fed could soon reach a confidence crisis when its policies fail to work. Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSAAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview. J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX. In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth. In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology. In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

    Don Durrett: Fed has Lost control of the Economy and Inflation

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2023 64:12


    Tom welcomes back Don Durrett Author, Investor & Owner of GoldStockData.com to the show. Don believes that the financial media and government tend to release bullish information which is inaccurate and misleading. He believes the real threat is the economy not coming back to life, since the Fed rarely gets anything right. A new liquidity crisis or "Lehmann moment" is coming. The Fed will have to react to the economy instead of steering it. Don is bullish on gold and silver and thinks that commodities such as energy, copper and most others will rise this decade. He believes we will also have a rally in the dollar as a fear trade. Don predicts that gold will have a pullback to the $1740 region once Wall Street realizes there won't be a soft landing. He believes silver will eventually reach $100. This will be preceded by a growing supply deficit which will manifest in a shortage of 1000 ounce bars. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Don's Substack2:04 - Fed & Flawed Metrics9:25 - A Reactive Fed13:10 - Equity Market Outlook18:18 - No More Cheap Goods23:46 - Energy & Inputs29:04 - The Dollar & Rates37:05 - 2023 Gold Strength42:35 - Silver Supply51:50 - Optionality & Miners1:01:30 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Expect the Fed to react to the economy with lower rates and more printing.Commodities rising this decade and the gold silver ratio eventually reach thirty.Wall Street must accept the economy won't have a soft landing for gold to break $1950.Don gives us this thoughts on optionality in the miners. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23 Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.

    Bill Holter: The Fed is Draining the Lifeblood from the System

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2023 27:56


    Tom welcomes back Bill Holter of Miles Franklin to share his insights on the current state of the US economy and the looming debt crisis. He explains that the current system is unsustainable, with the US debt now exceeding $32 trillion and a total of $200 trillion in debt promises. He notes that the US government is using deficit spending and inflation to try and maintain its economy, but this won't work in the long run. Bill suggests that a national sales tax could simplify the tax code, but due to the current political climate, this won't happen anytime soon. Foreign nations are no longer relying on the US dollar to conduct business, and are instead turning to gold, yuan, and rubles for transactions. He suggests that individuals should begin to think in terms of ounces of gold and silver instead of dollars, as it is likely that this will be the new currency when the current system collapses. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Jekyll Island Creature2:27 - Money Growth Trends4:07 - Derivatives6:09 - CBDC & Totalitarianism9:18 - Consumers & Credit11:48 - Self-Sufficiency14:04 - Financial Censorship16:54 - Abolish IRS & Flat Tax19:26 - The Kabuki Uni-Party20:45 - Debts & Deficit Spending23:10 - Worlds Perspective26:05 - Ounces Not Dollars26:53 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode U.S. debt now exceeds $32 trillion with over $200 trillion in debt promises.The US government is using deficit spending and inflation to try and maintain its economy, but this won't work in the long run.Foreign nations are no longer relying on the US dollar to conduct business, and are instead turning to gold, yuan, and rubles for transactions. Guest Links:Facebook: https://facebook.com/groups/jsmineset/Website: https://milesfranklin.comEmail: bholter@hotmail.com Bill Holter writes and is partners with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to the management of paper assets as he foresaw the Great Financial crisis coming. In retirement, he and his family moved to Costa Rica, where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. He was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present. Bill has retained a working relationship with Miles Franklin and can help with your precious metals needs, including transacting, shipping, storage, and even safe deposit boxes in non-bank vault facilities. Feel free to contact him with any of your questions or needs.

    Lyn Alden: Energy Crises, Inflation, and the Lack of Sound Money

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2023 59:57


    Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher, to the show. Lyn discusses the difficulty of safely storing wealth from the perspective of inflation and financial censorship. The current world financial system is composed of 180 local monopolies, within which governments demand that wealth is kept, but most are terrible at preserving value. Out of these, only a dozen are any good at holding value. The current system has many inefficiencies and brings significant risk to most. Half of the world lives under varying levels of authoritarian governments, which often use the financial system as a weapon and have banks that censor global payments. Historically, money operated at the speed of commerce, but this changed with the advent of modern communications. This delay between payments and delivery of goods has given governments and banks room to arbitrage. Lyn finds value in Bitcoin and some stablecoins, but she describes some of the problems and risks associated with crypto projects. She also discusses the decline in the Federal Reserve's remittances function and its impact on the U.S. Government's finances. Lastly, she discusses the world's energy requirements and the declining lack of return for what is being invested. Developing nations are looking for cheap, effective energy solutions, while wealthier countries are in a better position to adjust to new technology. She expresses concerns about the lack of capital investment in oil and how this spills over into mining. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Inefficient Money4:03 - Financial Censorship7:06 - Commerce & Money11:50 - Crypto & Confidence16:18 - Digital Gold?20:30 - 2023 & Asset Growth22:30 - Structural Inflation24:44 - Fed Remittances30:34 - Bank Loans & Yield Curve31:14 - Energy & Inflation38:43 - EROI & World Needs45:00 - ESG & Trade Offs46:55 - CapEx & Oil Sector52:25 - PM Mining & Industry56:13 - Key Questions in 202358:18 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The current world financial system is composed of 180 local monopolies, with very few of them being able to effectively preserve value.Governments and banks have taken advantage of the lag between payments and delivery of goods to arbitrage, creating significant risk for most.Lyn discusses the declining lack of return for energy investments, and the lack of capital investment in oil and mining. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/Energy Article: https://www.lynalden.com/energy-problems/Money Problems: https://www.lynalden.com/december-2022-newsletter/ Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you're new to investing or experienced, there's a lot there for you. Lyn has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and a master's degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility. She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time's Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor's Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.

    Craig Hemke: Are the Mining Stocks Starting to Gather Momentum?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2023 46:42


    Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report, returns to the show and discusses his macro forecast from last year. He expected a dip but anticipated a faster recovery to a higher level than what transpired. The Fed hiked more than most expected as inflation got ahead of them, and the extent of the damage remains unknown. The media complex has no interest in disrupting the established system, and this was evident when last week's job report was released. The only new jobs being created are those with part-time or multiple jobs just trying to make ends meet. Craig questions the actions and words of the Fed, noting how they often fail to correlate and are generally overly optimistic. The evidence of a faltering economy is apparent, and Craig expects rates to be dramatically lower by the end of the year. Craig then turns to the copper market, where global inventories have fallen by eighty percent in the past ten years. He believes that even within the confines of the current system, a powerful commodity rally is likely this year. Lastly, He encourages listeners to educate themselves and not take what they see on CNBC at face value. He believes institutions are starting to move into metals, and encourages listeners to add to their stack of physical metal on the dips. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - 2022 Market Calls3:20 - Lies & Propaganda10:35 - Flawed Metrics & Jobs15:05 - Pendulum & Gyrations20:50 - Inflation & CPI23:49 - China & Commodities28:17 - Recession & Copper30:26 - Commodities & Leverage31:52 - Metals & Supply39:36 - Inflation & Pendulums42:31 - Miners & Patience44:07 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Rates will be much lower by the end of the year, indicating a faltering economy.Global copper inventories have fallen by eighty percent in the past decade, likely leading to a powerful commodity rally this year.Craig encourages listeners to educate themselves and add to their stack of physical metal on the dips. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetalsWebsite: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe2023 Macrocast Report: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/11886/macrocast-2023-one-step-beyond Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets."

    Patrick Karim: Charts Hold the Key to Big Breakouts for Gold

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 7, 2023 44:06


    Tom welcomes Patrick Karim back from NorthStarBadCharts to the show to discuss their latest charts. Patrick is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader. Karim recounts a story of when he bought a penny stock without knowing much about risk management, only to watch it go to zero. He advises traders to always have access to charts and to use trend lines to identify when momentum has broken down. It's important to not become attached to any asset and take profits when possible. Stories may change, so continually look for chart-based evidence. Wait for a breakout before investing. Gold and silver prices are indicating that the current recession may be bottoming out. Charts demonstrate past performance during recessions. Silver often bottoms out before a recession was formally declared. The Fed funds rate chart and total public debt suggests that there may still be room for a spike in initial jobless claims, implying that a bigger recession may be around the corner. Patrick makes the argument that fundamentals should be prioritized less and more time should be spent on the price of assets. Since that is what causes the markets to react. Karim shows several charts which demonstrate past correlations with recessions and the utility of heat maps in quickly determining market sector trends. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Trends & Sentiment7:40 - Trading & Dumb Luck13:05 - Gold/Inflation16:48 - Silver Chart19:28 - Jobs, Debt, & Recession23:10 - Initial Claims & Gold26:10 - Gold vs SPX30:06 - Other Ratio Charts31:54 - Heat Mapping36:32 - Energy & Recession42:14 - Yachting & Drinks43:13 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Sentiment and the importance of watching Technicals.Patience and why investors should wait for breakouts and take profits where possible.Outlook for energy and the utility of heat maps to track sectors. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthStarChartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically. His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.

    Chris Irons: Life & Conspiracies in The Age of Unaccountability

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2023 58:00


    Note: This episode will not be released on YouTube, you need to go to one of the links below for the full version. Alternatively, you can listen to the podcast or scroll down to the bottom of this page for our audio player. Follow the links below for the full video or listen to the podcast version. Rumble: https://rumble.com/v24810w-chris-irons-life-and-conspiracies-in-the-age-of-unaccountability.htmlOdysee: https://odysee.com/ChrisIronsPart2LifeAccountability:69601707bed1cbf3643fdba5ca2381fbe1f919bd Tom and Chris continue their discussion as they dive deeper into topics that some find controversial. They discuss the COVID-19 vaccine, the potential risk of myocarditis associated with the mRNA vaccines, and the importance of thinking for oneself. Chris shares his insights on the recent protests in China, and the idea of taking personal responsibility for one's own life. They also talk about the lack of trust in narratives pushed by authorities and the concept of group think. Chris emphasize the importance of staying calm in stressful situations and how practicing things like being uncomfortable and pushing your limits can help one prepare for life's unexpected events. They also discuss the hedonistic treadmill and the importance of relationships and conversations. Money and materialistic items do not matter as much as meaningful interactions and conversations. Tom and Chris conclude by stressing the importance of conversations and exploring one's own consciousness and sovereignty over their own minds. They remind listeners to think for themselves and make decisions that are best for them and their families, rather than just following the herd. They finish by emphasizing the importance of freedom and liberty, as everyone has different priorities and ways of thinking. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - mRNA Tech & Myocarditis4:47 - Dr. Peter McCullough9:00 - Age of Unaccountability18:36 - Political Credibility22:20 - Think For Yourself25:16 - Personal Development26:04 - Intuition & Conviction32:53 - Taking Responsibility35:30 - Movie - The Whale37:08 - What Matters in Life44:37 - Hedonistic Treadmill47:46 - Being Uncomfortable57:00 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Thinking independently and making decisions that are in one's best interest and those of their family, instead of blindly following the crowd.Remaining composed during difficult times and how experiences like poverty or discomfort can help one be better prepared for the unexpected.The significance of relationships and conversations, and how meaningful interactions are more important than money and material possessions. Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch Chris Irons is the creator of Fringe Finance, a blog dedicated to tackling complex and important topics in finance and other related fields. Through his blog and various curated content, Chris seeks to challenge the mainstream narrative and bring attention to the areas of finance often neglected by the mainstream media. Chris has been an avid investor for many years and has a track record of identifying opportunities before they become mainstream. In 2019, he was able to foresee the Covid crisis and prepare himself and his readers for the subsequent market crash. He has a passion for uncovering the objective truth and believes that discourse is the most important part of understanding complex topics. Chris encourages his readers to take the facts on their own and draw their own conclusions. No matter the topic, Chris Irons will always bring an irreverent and honest approach to his work. With his content, he seeks to equip his readers with the tools and resources they need to make informed decisions.

    Chris Irons: The U.S. has Lost It’s Financial Compass

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2023 72:20


    Chris Irons, the host of the Quoth the Raven podcast and author of QTR's Fringe Finance Substack, joins Palisades Gold Radio for a discussion about the market in 2023. The rapid rate hikes of 2022 have had a major effect on Main Street and caused people to take out more debt to make ends meet. Should the S&P take a 15% hit in 48 hours, the Fed will take action and become more dovish. Chris also talks about how the US is at its most precarious financial position ever due to its massive debt, inflation, trade deficits, and government spending. These factors are contributing to a slow slide that will eventually cause a drastic switch in the US's reserve currency status. Investors have been trained to expect the Fed to come to the rescue when the market crashes, and this could lead to a false sense of security. He also believes that the Fed can't do a major cut due to the potential for inflation. Chris believes that the Fed will take a dovish stance and eventually cut rates, but this won't be enough to prevent the market from crashing. He also believes that the US is at its most precarious financial position ever and that the world is bifurcating in front of us. Chris also provides insights into his outlook on 2023, predicting that ARK could go to $15, and Tesla could fall another 90%. His advice to investors is to look at the risk of gold miners being nationalized and to consider the possibility of other factors such as yield curve control and foreign adversaries challenging the dollar's reserve currency. Talking Points From This Week's Episode Chris Irons believes that 2023 will be a year of volatility and capitulation as markets respond to the rapid rate hikes in 2022.The Fed has "overshot the mark" and their policies will operate on a lag.The US is in its most precarious financial position ever due to its massive debt, inflation, trade deficits, and government spending. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:03 - A Macro Perspective10:00 - Consumers Tapped Out19:00 - Precarious Markets21:46 - Investor Expectations26:00 - Existential Risks?31:31 - World is Bifurcating34:32 - BRICS & U.S. Actions42:30 - Tesla, Woods & ARK49:00 - Hard Lessons in 202351:10 - Investors & Crypto1:00:08 - A Flexible Mindset1:07:38 - Gold At The Gate1:11:32 - Wrap Up Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch Chris Irons is the creator of Fringe Finance, a blog dedicated to tackling complex and important topics in finance and other related fields. Through his blog and various curated content, Chris seeks to challenge the mainstream narrative and bring attention to the areas of finance often neglected by the mainstream media. Chris has been an avid investor for many years and has a track record of identifying opportunities before they become mainstream. In 2019, he was able to foresee the Covid crisis and prepare himself and his readers for the subsequent market crash. He has a passion for uncovering the objective truth and believes that discourse is the most important part of understanding complex topics. Chris encourages his readers to take the facts on their own and draw their own conclusions. No matter the topic, Chris Irons will always bring an irreverent and honest approach to his work. With his content, he seeks to equip his readers with the tools and resources they need to make informed decisions.

    Lobo Tiggre: The Fed Led Monetary Tightening and Will Lead Easing

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2023 46:23


    Tom welcomes back Lobo Tiggre founder and CEO of Louis James LLC. He is the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com and his speciality is in evaluating resource companies. Lobo starts out by explaining the dangers of believing theories that fit one's worldview, but cannot be proven. Tiggre's article "Rationalism versus Empiricism in Securities Analysis" warns against buying into theories peddled by salespeople. He uses the example of central banks buying gold to show how theories can be wrong and hurt investors. He then discusses the example of supply side deficits, and cautions against believing theories of scarcity. He explains why the cost of production does not always act as a floor for commodities, such as copper, during a recession. He cautions against succumbing to theories that sound too good to be true. Lobo discusses the IMF's prediction of a third of the world's economies entering recession in the upcoming year. He voices that there are more negatives associated with the recession than positives in the form of China reopening. The world economy is fragile and there is potential for something to break and cause a new Lehman moment. He also mentions that gold and silver are a good form of insurance during this time of uncertainty and that the ECB may be more hawkish than the Fed in the near future, which could lead to a bearish dollar and bullish gold and silver. Lobo is also bullish on uranium and is of the opinion that the nuclear renaissance is inevitable and that the green agenda cannot be achieved without it. He warns gold bugs to not be discouraged by the lack of performance in 2022 and encourages them to pay attention to inflation rates and the DXY. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Untestable Theories4:54 - C.B. Gold Buying & Price8:26 - Supply Side Deficits11:52 - Deficient Markets15:27 - Recession Implications20:54 - ECB Hawkishness & Fed28:03 - DXY & Gold Benchmarks31:46 - Magic Wands & Fairy Dust33:33 - Politics & Power37:36 - Energy, Gold, & 202344:00 - 2022 Thoughts & Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode: Investors should be wary of theories peddled by salespeople and make sure they can be proven before investing.Gold and silver are a good form of insurance during this time of economic uncertainty.The nuclear renaissance is inevitable and the green agenda cannot be achieved without it. Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/ Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.

    Lawrence Lepard: A Fed Pivot is Mathematically Assured

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 29, 2022 62:00


    Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates. Lawrence discusses the changing investing landscape as it relates to the Federal Reserve's continuing debasement of the currency and its three mandates of inflation, labor, and financial stability. He notes that the debt situation is becoming increasingly dire, with the interest on the debt doubling in just a few years, the deficit now over two trillion, with tax receipts declining. This debt doom loop will eventually unravel, leading to massive contagion and a complete collapse of financial stability. He believes that hard money advocates are in the minority, but that if the government were to take responsibility, the current paradigm could be changed. Unfortunately, he notes that the level of understanding required to solve our economic problems is still lacking at a governmental level, and it will take a lot more suffering before awareness is achieved. Inflation is likely to become the number one political issue, at which point sound money advocates may be given a chance to present their solutions. But at present, the Fed is continuing to print more money in an attempt to solve the problems, which will only lead to a further devaluation of bonds and stocks. Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Fed & Inevitability7:00 - Mathematical Certainties13:40 - Japan & Gov't Arrogance20:24 - Home Sales & Recession23:50 - Metals Potential26:07 - Sentiment & Miners29:42 - New Bretton Woods?36:08 - Bitcoin Benefits42:28 - Gold Benefits46:50 - Crypto Regulation54:36 - Concluding Thoughts59:47 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The Fed's worsening debt spiral and the certainties of mathematics.The Fed will be forced to pivot when something major in the debt system cracks.What if the government suddenly became fiscally responsible.The important characteristics of the Bitcoin invention and why it's not going away. Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities. Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II. Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.

    Parallel Mike: Too Big to Survive – Totalitarianism & Shifting Risks

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 28, 2022 55:23


    Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content. The global economy is heading for recession, with some countries likely to experience severe problems. We have a sovereign debt crisis, personal debt crisis, and a central banking problem. The entire system is insolvent, and we're going to see more problems surfacing. The system is so interdependent that one problem starts to bring everything down. It seems certain that the only way to maintain the status quo will be to continue printing. He believes they are setting up for the end game. Inflation will start wiping out most people's assets. It's also important to work towards preserving your personal liberty. We're on a path towards totalitarianism. The control grid espoused by the WEF and Davos are deeply philosophical questions. They seem to want an imposition of a control grid with many agendas, including taking away property ownership. They're bringing us from crisis to crisis to gain our acquiescence. We have no idea how many liabilities banks have and the extent of their counterparty risk. It seems that central banks themselves don't know the extent of the risk. We're seeing countries moving away from the dollar and towards commodities like gold. We're moving into a period where it will be quite hard to move money without being heavily scrutinized. Government policy around carbon is going to have a profound effect on people. It seems like they will force people into economic hardship as a control mechanism. He discusses some of the severe market distortions that are occurring in Europe and why these may be opportunities if you think ahead. Talking Points From This Week's Episode The current financial situation and concerns regarding global agendas.Why inflation is likely here to stay and people need to become as independent as possible.Market distortions and the importance of a macro view to find opportunity. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Turbulent Paths5:45 - Freedom & Choice9:43 - Bailin's & Banking13:52 - Counterparty Risks17:32 - Gold & C.B. Trust21:37 - Cash & System Reliance26:47 - Carbon Taxes & Food30:35 - Distortions & Opportunity33:20 - Investing in Assets38:00 - Silvers Role40:28 - Coming Instability46:32 - Balance of Power Risks49:30 - Community & Taking Action52:40 - Wrap Up Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9AkwTwitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mikePatreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystems Mike is a precious metal's investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty.

    Spaces: Metals, Mints, Laws, Premiums & the Outlook for 2023 with David, Bix, Bob & Jim

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 27, 2022 138:10


    David discusses the Lode project briefly and brings us his thoughts on why public mints should be to meet the public demand for metal. This year's U.S. mint production has been low and prices have gone through the roof. The law has recently changed at the Mint's request regarding their requirements for meeting demand. They are using the excuse of having to meet proof quality coin demand first. Bix discusses his concerns with the lack of production and the mint's failure to properly hedge silver. This has resulted in losses for the Mint in 2021. A discussion of high premiums and the current collapse in retail silver ensues with Bob. Metals manipulation and spoofing is also discussed, but Bob notes that it's often difficult and time-consuming for regulators to prove. The Fed is also discussed and how they seem a bit trapped on inflation. Metals are primarily concerned with risk and Bob express concerns about the U.S. elections coming up in 2024. We've kicked the can down the road and failed to flush the malfeasance in the system. David Morgan - Morgan ReportWebsite: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22 Bix Weir - Ex-banker dedicated to exposing the conspiracy to manipulate the Global crypto, silver and gold markets.Website: https://roadtoroota.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/RoadtoRoota Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/ Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com

    Peter Schiff: The Inflationary Nightmare – Biggest Bubble to Biggest Bust

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2022 57:35


    Tom welcomes Peter Schiff, the CEO and Chief Economist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, Chairman of Schiff Gold, and host of Schiff Radio to the show. Peter discuss the Fed's approach to inflation and why the they are purposely keeping the truth from the public in order to prevent a crisis. He believes inflation will not go away until there is a will in Washington to get rid of it, and that quantitative easing to accommodate large deficits caused by reckless government spending will only increase inflation. He also noted that while deflation is often seen as a bad thing, it is actually beneficial for consumers who can buy items cheaply. Peter believes that the current 2% inflation target is no longer relevant and that the government has created a safety net that has become a hammock for some people, eliminating many unskilled jobs. He believes that the minimum wage law has made it impossible for young people to gain the skills they need to move up the job ladder, creating a permanent underclass. The Fed has run out of tools to help the economy and free markets were not allowed to work during the COVID crisis. Gold is coming back in a big way due to the devaluation of fiat currencies. Lastly, Peter argues gold is more efficient, less volatile and expensive, and faster than Bitcoin. Talking Points From This Episode The current state of the labor market and the Fed's 2% inflation target is no longer relevant.Government regulations stifle company growth, and less regulation has actually led to less fraud.Investors should focus on international markets, emerging markets, commodities, and value stocks. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Honesty at The Fed7:08 - Fed & More Hikes?10:03 - Scary Deflation14:10 - Blame Inflation15:20 - Inflation Targets18:35 - Unemployment Rates26:02 - Fed & "Solutions"30:05 - Covid Spending Spree32:47 - Gov't & Free Markets36:20 - Competition & Efficiency40:50 - New Investment Paradigm46:48 - New Era & Digital Gold50:13 - Silver Vs. Gold52:40 - Sound Money & Education55:08 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Podcast: https://schiffradio.com/Website: https://schiffgold.com/Website: https://europac.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiffYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIjuLiLHdFxYtFmWlbTGQRQ Peter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy - How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals.

    Gareth Soloway: Worst Recession in Memory and New Highs for Gold in 2023

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 21, 2022 31:18


    Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for In The Money Stocks. Gareth discusses why Japan moving rates slightly higher has had an outsized effect. This is the first sign of a fundamental change in Japanese policy. The dollar is down in response, which could also be a result of expectations of coming economic weakness. We've had inflation for several years now, and it seems likely that the Fed will be resistant to printing. Eventually, things could get bad enough that they will be forced to print to stimulate growth. He believes a big recession is in the cards and will last longer than most expect. He believes the S&P won't hit new highs for at least a decade. Gareth discusses the problems working against the dollar, and why he believes it will be years away before the Fed begins printing again. Other countries are also applying pressure by finding alternative methods of trade. Trillions of dollars are overseas that could be dumped on the market. Stocks have yet to factor in the possible poor earnings growth next year. Gareth sets out some possible targets for the S&P next year. Big money is not coming back to crypto until there is transparency in that market. He expects to see 9000 by May or June 2023 in Bitcoin. He expects gold to outperform in 2023 and there should be upside of about 2300. We're seeing similar patterns right now to that of the mid-70s. He believes silver may see a super-spike not unlike seen in the 80s and 2011. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Japan, Rates & Dollar3:38 - Re-Stimulation?6:18 - Dollar Chart & Tops8:06 - Euro/USD/Yen Charts10:15 - Global? Recession11:55 - Fed Reaction & Dollar14:42 - 2023 Equity Outlook16:46 - Nasdaq Volatility17:53 - Crypto & FTX19:39 - Pick for 202321:12 - Drivers For Gold22:41 - A Silver Superspike?24:30 - ETF & Resources25:40 - GDX Chart Outlook27:35 - SLV & SIL ETF29:10 - Oil Demand & 202330:38 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSolowayWebsite: https://inthemoneystocks.com/Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.comBlog: https://inthemoneystocks.com/author/gareth/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/ Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. "Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets," he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested. After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together, and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology. InTheMoneyStocks was launched in 2007 once the PPT Methodology was perfected. Gareth's goal was to help average investors beat the best hedge funds and traders on Wall Street by teaching them the methodology and giving them his trades as he took them LIVE! Since 2007, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has maintained an over 80% success rate on swing trade alerts (verified 300+ trades per year) given to members in Verified Investing Alerts (formally named the Research Center) and a confirmed 94% success rate on day ...

    Charles Nenner: Inflation, War and Precious Metals All Set to Accelerate Next Year

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2022 27:58


    Tom welcomes back Charles Nenner. Charles provides independent market research to hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. He discusses how commodity cycles typically work and why he believes inflation will pick up again. We're in an inflationary period that will take about thirty years. We're now seeing cycles with war, but he predicts there will be more tension and problems by the middle of next year. They work with price predictions to help evaluate price cycles. Cycles predict mass psychology and the opinion of investors. It's based on an assumption that things don't move randomly, but operate on basic laws of nature. He believes the Fed will back off in their aggressiveness, at least until the inflation cycle starts back up. The Baltic dry index shows what is occurring in the economy, and it tracks insider activity very well. He's expecting further declines in equities, and it's normal to get 10-20% bounces during bear market declines. Don't get drawn in because the big guys will take advantage. The weekly cycles for gold and silver need to bottom for the next big move. Soon we're going to see a bull market, we're just waiting for confirmation. There is weakness in the dollar, and the relationship with other markets like gold tends to be complex. He finds cryptocurrencies to be the easiest market to forecast because it's all based on sentiment without fundamentals. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Commodity Cycles2:35 - Analyzing Cycles4:25 - Crude Oil Cycle6:45 - Natural Gas7:40 - Inflation & The Fed10:08 - Buy Signals12:58 - Baltic Dry Index16:48 - Gold/Silver Signals18:10 - 30 Year Bond Trend19:01 - Recession + Inflation20:25 - War & Dollar Outlook23:15 - Debt & Culture Decline25:19 - Crypto Analysis27:00 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Market cycles and their importance in gaining returns.His Outlook for 2023 and why he expects further turmoil.Debt and cultural decline of western nations. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/NennerResearchWebsite: https://www.charlesnenner.com In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman's fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001. From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv. Mr. Nenner served as Director of Research at Windsor, NY between 1987 and 1989, and was a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch out of its Amsterdam Office from 1985 to 1987. Mr. Nenner initiated a system of pattern forecasting and securities analysis, and developed a computer program which takes many indicators into account, including Mr. Nenner's use of proprietary cycle analysis. Charles graduated from Maimonides College Amsterdam in 1972, and from the University of Amsterdam Medical College, where he earned his medical degree in 1984.

    Chris Rutherglen: Could $3000 Gold Happen in 2023?

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2022 74:39


    Tom welcomes back private investor and engineer Chris Rutherglen. During the past year, he started a Substack which is more useful for long-term content. It's called Gold Investor Research, and he discusses a recent article where he expects gold to head in the short term. The Fed is likely to have done a 50 basis point rate hike on Wednesday. That coupled with the CPI print could send gold in either direction, possibly higher. Looking at markets from multiple perspectives is beneficial for determining where things are likely to head. He provides a number of interesting charts which analyze the long-term price movements for gold. He charts the TIPS against gold to try and understand inflation expectations and where the gold price could move. Chris discusses why gold could move to $3000 in the next move based on its historic patterns. During has hit its seven-year cycle high when the Fed reaches the middle of its rate cutting phase, with the low at the end of the cutting phase. The sweet spot for gold is coming. Things are starting to look good for gold investors, although many may have lost patience. 2023 is shaping up to be a good year. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Substack & Gold Pricing4:10 - Gold Volatility9:00 - COT Report Trends12:52 - Gold Price Cycles16:38 - Long-Term Gold Charts21:36 - 1970s, Yield Vs. Gold34:28 - Gold Price & Inflation41:16 - Algos & Price Action42:16 - Gold Consolidations47:12 - Gold & Fed Funds Rate56:43 - Gold 7 1/2 & 15-Year Cycles1:01:10 - HUI Overlay Chart1:03:58 - Patience & Evidence1:05:00 - S&P/GDP & CPI1:08:34 - Investing Framework1:10:08 - Metal Ratio Trading1:12:23 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CRutherglenSubstack: https://giresearch.substack.com Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin

    Danielle DiMartino Booth: Special Fed Meeting Review – Could the Fed be Missing the Mark?

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2022 19:09


    Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm. Danielle DiMartino Booth provides a comprehensive overview of the Fed's balance sheet reduction policy, implications of this policy, and changes to the voting committee. She believes that the current mortgage rates are too high, making it difficult for the Fed to hit their target of rolling off $35 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month. This has resulted in losses of $1.25 trillion over the first three quarters of the year. Tom suggests that the Fed should do a study of how inflation got so high. Danielle counters that the Fed has some pretty good ideas. She also mentions that the job openings data has been disproved by academics and that a large portion of job postings are for poaching successful employees. Danielle expects Powell to be patient until the effects show up in the fiancial market. Lastly, she notes the upcoming rotation of the voting committee which is shifting in a dovish direction but Powell has veto power to push back against dissenters. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Fed News & Damage6:28 - Job Opening Data8:40 - BOE Intervention & Fed10:35 - Mortgage Rates & MBS12:05 - Fed Security Losses13:08 - Inflationary Causes?15:04 - Fed Doves Are Flocking16:45 - Powell's Powers & FOMC18:17 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The job openings data is being used by Chair Powell to justify his decisions, even though it is not reliable.The Fed's balance sheet reduction policy and its potential implications are discussed, as well as the upcoming changes to the voting committee.Why the Fed should investigate how inflation got so high. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothWebsite: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets. Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

    Alasdair Macleod: The Coming Financial Iceberg

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2022 56:42


    Alasdair Macleod discusses the risks of being a creditor to a bank and the potential for depositor funds to be used to bail-in a bank in the event of its failure. There is potential for a crisis of confidence as such legislation has been passed by the G20 countries and should be a concern to large depositors. He then looks at the derivatives market, which has grown massively since the 1980s during a declining rate environment. Now we're at the point where interest rates have nowhere to go but up. This, along with off-balance sheet debt, could have a major impact on the European banking system. He then turns his attention to China, whose economy appears to be recovering, with the government being in full control of their banking system. China is securing resources and has long-term contracts with other countries. In contrast to the West, who have pivoted away from the Saudi's, China is accepting gold for oil with long-term contracts. Macleod explains why gold is the only legal money in existence and why the COT Open Interest metrics suggest that the gold market is oversold. Finally, he comments on the situation with Ukraine and Russia and the potential for global changes that could lead to the destruction of Western currencies, and the importance of people acquiring real money, such as gold, as insurance. Talking Points From This Episode Why Banks can use depositor funds to bail-in in the event of a failure.The risks with derivatives market have grown massively in a low interest rate environment.Golds importance in being legal money and it's usefulness as insurance. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Banking Risks & Deposits5:18 - Bail Ins & Bail Outs9:33 - C.B. Balance Sheets11:40 - Rates & Derivatives16:55 - Pensions & Repo Market23:15 - Global Recession Risk29:04 - China, Oil, & Saudis35:06 - Bitcoin & Interest Rates41:32 - COT Report & Open Interest48:20 - Ukraine & Europe52:48 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/ Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist. Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm. Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director. For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.

    Brandon Munro: The World is Shifting to Again Accept Nuclear Power

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2022 44:15


    Tom welcomes back Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Energy, to discuss the increasing activity in the uranium space. Brandon believes it is a good time to invest in uranium equities, as it is a defensive asset. The closing of nuclear plants had been a misguided idea, however, the world has now recognized this error. Reactors still require fuel, yet the current supply deficit means that what is available is being used up, and secondary sources are also declining. Further, utilities have used up a large portion of their own supplies. There has been a fundamental shift in the public's perception of nuclear power; if people approach it with an open mind, they should be able to recognize it as the answer. It has taken some time for this attitude to become acceptable in politics, yet it is now changing quickly. Countries like France are beginning to recognize it as the future of their economy. Governments are now prioritizing funding of nuclear energy, as it helps energy companies cover the costs of capital, thus reducing the risks of constructing new plants. This is in spite of the fact that shale gas is very inexpensive, and there are numerous subsidies for renewable energy sources. However, rising energy costs and various issues with renewables have made new construction in the United States more practical. Nuclear power is also appealing in terms of energy security, as countries can stockpile their own uranium reserves and thus ensure a secure energy source for whatever time frame they desire. In the markets that matter today, the attitude towards nuclear energy has improved drastically, and the industry is now looking for ways to meet the coming demands. Russia is the primary global enricher of nuclear fuel, thus leading to potential political implications. Plans to impose sanctions on Russian nuclear fuel by 2026 are in place. The excess mobile inventory has mostly been bought up by the Sprott Trust, and the world needs around $80 uranium to bring new mines and restart old ones. Few new projects can come online any time soon. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Uranium Equities2:20 - A Defensive Investment6:52 - Shifting Attitudes11:06 - Recession Risks15:04 - Deglobalization19:24 - Public Opinion21:26 - Russian Enrichment28:26 - Timeframes & Production30:07 - Inventory Signals?32:39 - The Incentive Price38:20 - SPUT & Carry Trade41:16 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Week's Episode There is a fundamental shift in public perception of nuclear power.Why governments are prioritizing funding of nuclear energy.Finding alternatives to using Russia for fuel enrichment. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/BannermanEnergyTwitter: https://twitter.com/Brandon_MunroWebsite: https://bannermanenergy.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BannermanEnergyLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bannerman-energy-limited Brandon Munro is CEO of Bannerman Energy, an ASX listed uranium development company that is focused on the large-scale and advanced Etango-8 uranium project in Namibia. Brandon is an expert on uranium mining and the nuclear fuel cycle. Brandon has over 20 years' experience as a resources executive and lawyer, with qualifications in law, quantitative economics, finance and governance. His various industry roles include Chair of the World Nuclear Association's Nuclear Fuel Demand working group, which is responsible for forecasting global uranium demand scenarios to 2040. He is former Governance Advisor to the Namibian Uranium Association and Strategic Advisor to the Namibian Chamber of Mines. Brandon has held various voluntary board and committee roles in conservation, education and the arts. As a uranium sector thought leader and author, Brandon is a respected voice in the nuclear energy sector and is a contributing expert to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.

    J.E.S: Rising Interest Rates and the Cleansing of the System

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2022 98:25


    Tom welcomes J.E.S., the author of "The Real Truth About Inflation," back to the show to discuss the effects of interest rate hikes and how long it will take to move through the markets and the economy. Jes explains why interest rate hikes typically have a lag of 6-9 months, although it can be anywhere between 4-22 months. In addition, they discussed the Taylor Rule, wage-price spiral, the need to incentivize energy companies to increase production, and the notion of decentralization. They also discussed the use of gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies and their potential to challenge traditional fiat currencies. They also discussed the Cantillon effect, which is when newly minted currency is given to certain people or entities before it is released to the public. They further discussed the liquidity trap and how it perpetuates a recession, as well as the risks of global recession and the impact it has on debt. Finally, they discussed the implications of the destruction of the NordStream pipelines and the control of the narrative by governments. Talking Points From This Episode Effects of interest rate hikes on the economyIncentivizing energy companies to increase production and reduce pricesChallenges with traditional fiat currencies and moving towards decentralizationComplexities of the current global climate and the need to be aware of government decisions. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Rate Hike Lag Effects7:50 - Recession & Crashing10:33 - Unemployment Levels14:20 - Rates & Pricing Money16:20 - Rates, Demand, & Inflation25:40 - Wage & Price Spirals28:50 - Supply Side Inflation40:40 - Gold as Good Money?49:00 - Currencies Vs. Money52:20 - Crypto as Competition1:04:50 - Fed & Conditioning1:06:50 - The Liquidity Trap1:14:10 - China, Gold, & Trade1:23:20 - Russia & China's Friends1:25:55 - Sanctions Impacts1:28:40 - Winter Just Starting1:29:55 - NordStream & Choices1:32:40 - Demand Problems1:34:30 - Shutdowns & Narratives1:35:40 - Wrap Up Guest Links:E-Mail: aueconjes@gmail.comAmazon Book Link: https://tinyurl.com/bdz9eue2

    Jay Martin: Protecting From The Trajectory of Chaos and Uncertainty

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2022 62:10


    Tom welcomes Jay Martin, President & CEO of Cambridge House International and Host of the Jay Martin Show, to the program. Jay discussed the risks associated with becoming overly attached to an asset, emphasizing the need to understand that an asset won't love you back and that you will eventually be proven wrong. He acknowledged the importance of having physical gold for personal sovereignty and to help one sleep at night. Gold is being sought after by both individual investors and major corporations and central banks, which speaks to the desire for independence and autonomy. Companies with strong resource equity returns are those with the right people involved, but the risk remains. Jay then pointed to the Canadian Federal and Provincial governments, where Trudeau has made headlines for the wrong reasons, and the energy situation in Europe, which is full of distrust and has yet to be resolved. Finally, Jay shared his beliefs that we are overdue for a secular commodity run, though he remains concerned about near-term pain. Ultimately, he suggests that gold is a reliable asset to have in one's portfolio to maintain personal sovereignty and have peace of mind. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Questioning Narratives3:30 - Emotion & Taking Profits4:34 - Physicals Importance7:57 - Loan From Yourself11:03 - Macro Risks & Holdings13:08 - Resource Equities16:07 - Thinking Clearly17:20 - Canadian Problems22:04 - Projection & Narratives27:12 - Energy Crisis & Europe35:29 - Nuclear Bets38:41 - Commodity Supercycle42:30 - Inflation & Hard Assets50:01 - The Sovereign Mindset53:32 - Risk Tolerance?56:53 - Good Habits59:36 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Week's Episode Importance of staying detached from investments and keeping sentiment in check.Having physical gold as a method of improving your personal sovereignty.Energy outlook for Europe and the coming resource supercycle. Guest links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/JayMartinBC/Conference: https://cambridgehouse.com/vancouver-resource-investment-conferenceWebsite: https://cambridgehouse.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheJayMartinShow Jay Martin is the President & CEO of Cambridge House International Inc. His ideal day begins with a hard workout followed by dark coffee and a couple of hours to read anything related to futurism and geopolitics. Since 2011 he has expanded Cambridge House from Canada's leading junior mining conferences to become Canada's most recognizable brand in public venture capital. Today, Cambridge House produces the largest investment conferences in the country in both technology and natural resources and hosts the largest video library of investment content in Canada. Jay sits on the board of the Entrepreneur Organization, a global business community of over 12,000 leading entrepreneurs in 53 countries worldwide.

    Twitter Spaces – Part 2: Fed Policy, Custodial Risk, Metals Physical Vs. Digital

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2022 86:02


    This is an edited version of our Twitter Space that took place on December 1st, 2022. Note: In Part One of this Twitter Space, Tom Luongo discussed the Geopolitical situation with the Fed, Davos, and Europe. David discusses the high-premiums and low mintages that we have been having on silver coins, particularly Eagles. Premiums on metals have been overly ratcheted up by bullion dealers. He also expresses concerns about the stability of Tether. Jim discusses the controversy over the FTX CEO and questions why the American Justice System hasn't put him in handcuffs. He seems to be protected. Bob notes that he is currently in the Bahamas, where it's more difficult to extradite him. O'Hare vigorously argues the metals are an inflation hedge when viewed over longer time frames. He sees silver as both monetary and industrial uses. All these entities and banks are struggling globally, there is a lot of stress in the system. He is starting to see increasing interest from larger players in the metal space and he gives some advice for investing in resource equities. The Silver Institute estimates a supply deficit of 200 million ounces in silver for 2022. A lot of smelting and refining has gone offline in Europe due to energy costs. Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/ David Morgan - Morgan ReportWebsite: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22 Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com O'HareTwitter: https://twitter.com/OHare888 Tom Luongo - Host of the Gold, Goats'N Guns PodcastWebsite: https://tomluongo.meYouTube: https://bit.ly/2cWrwJ8Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns

    Palisades Twitter Spaces: Part 1 – Geopolitics & Europe, Fed Policy, Custodial Risk, Metals Physical Vs. Digital

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2022 92:26


    In Part One of this Twitter Space, we are joined by Tom Luongo and Bob Coleman. Tom discusses the political situation in Ukraine and expresses concerns about the FTX crypto exchange debacle. It appears those in charge want it to just go away. Tom notes the financial system today is all largely built on Ponzi schemes. It's all a giant con-fidence game. Powell is trying to reduce dollar liquidity to soak up overseas dollar that are returning. Bob discusses the precious metals markets and gives some actionable advice for those looking to avoid overpaying for metals. In Part 2, due out soon, David Morgan, Jim Hunter, and O'hare join us to discuss the latest happenings in precious metals markets. Tom Luongo - Host of the Gold, Goats'N Guns PodcastWebsite: https://tomluongo.meYouTube: https://bit.ly/2cWrwJ8Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/ David Morgan - Morgan ReportWebsite: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22 Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com

    Harley Bassman: The Middle Class is Going to be Crushed by Inflation

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2022 56:57


    Tom welcomes Harley Bassman to the show. Harvey is Managing Partner at Simplify Asset Management and Creator of the Move Indicator. He explains the concept of convexity, which is simply a non-linear return. You have a bet where up or down moves are equally weighted for returns. Markets are a lot about character but hubris and ego are what get you on the front page of the New York Times. It's important to understand your own biases and trade accordingly. The Move indicator tracks the volatility of bonds, and he argues the Fed can't raise rates too quickly. The Fed tends to respond around the 150 level. When the yield curve inverts, you're going to get a recession in 12 to 18 months. We are currently deep into a yield curve inversion unlike any seen in the last 30 years. By Q2, we will likely be in recession. He discusses why the Fed will continue to squeeze until something significant breaks. The middle class will be hit hard by inflation. What happens in the investment universe if inflation falls to four and stays at that level. Demographics are important for determining where things will inevitably lead. Millennials will want to buy homes, but we've seen massive increases in housing prices. He feels housing prices have about 15 percent to come down, but doesn't foresee a crash. Likewise, he doesn't find gold to be an investment, but more of an alternative currency. There isn't a lot of it, and they aren't making much more of it, so it fulfills an important function. It's a disaster insurance policy. Lastly, he discusses the correlation between stocks and bonds and how that is changing. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Convexity Concept2:50 - Actionable Advice5:10 - Move Index & Recession14:27 - Powell's Tough Job16:32 - Inflation Outlook22:02 - Declining Demographics29:53 - Japan & Population32:30 - Labor & Immigration36:18 - Housing Markets40:20 - Mortgage Backed Securities43:39 - MBS Vs. REITs48:36 - Fed & Soft Landing?51:40 - Thoughts on Gold53:45 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode The concept of convexity and how the Move index (indicator) measures bond volatility.Demographic problems and why the middle class will be hardest hit by inflation.Why MBS may be a good investment in this environment. Guest Links:Website: https://www.convexitymaven.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMavenWebsite: https://www.simplify.us/ Harley Bassman created, marketed and traded a wide variety of derivative and structured products during his twenty-six year career at Merrill Lynch. In 1985, he created the OPOSSMS mortgage options product that facilitated risk transmission between MBS originators and financial institutions. In 1988, he assumed responsibility for trading and marketing IO/PO and other levered prepayment securities. Soon after this, he started purchasing RTC auctioned MBS Servicing rights and repackaged them for the securities market as BIGS – Beneficial Interests in GNMA Servicing. Later, he started a GNMA servicing conduit, becoming one of the Top 20 originators in 1992. As managing and hedging prepayment risk became a priority focus for the financial markets, Mr. Bassman created PRESERV, Merrill's trademarked Prepayment Cap product. Merrill was a leader in this product category, writing protection that covered the risk on tens of billions of notional mortgage servicing rights. Later, Mr. Bassman managed Merrill's initial venture into off-balance sheet mortgage trading. In 1994, Mr. Bassman assumed responsibility for OTC bond options. Within a year, Merrill was the leader in this product sector. A wide variety of products were offered, including vanilla and complex options on MBS spreads and the Treasury yield curve. To help clients more fully appreciate Volatility as a primary risk vector, he created the MOVE Index. Similar in form to the VIX Index, it is now the recognized standard measure of Interest Rate Volatility.

    London Paul: Part 2 – Gold & Silver Protects Against All Possible Outcomes

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2022 78:23


    In this two-part presentation, Tom welcomes back Paul from The Sirius Report to finish a discussion on the rapidly evolving multipolar world. Paul discusses what a BRICS Currency system will look like and why it's likely to be backed by commodities and likely gold. The ideas behind BRICS are continuing to evolve as more nations join across the world. Soon we could have upwards of thirty countries involved, and they will have to figure out how to weight the system. This is a reality and no longer some sort of fictional idea. It's now maturing into a proper system with good organization. They are also being cautious and considering the risks of moving too fast. The West is going to have to radically re-assess every part of the economy, governance and adapt to a much better system. The U.S. believes it can bring it's industrial base back, but they can't afford the salaries. Then they will be unable to compete and can only serve the market internally. They will need commodities from the rest of the world. The U.S. is dependent on the rest of the world for energy, and diesel in particular. There are many concerns about the sustainability of shale gas. Paper markets for metals are massively manipulated. Markets are driven by algos and high-frequency trading. Markets today often react completely opposite to news. There is a fundamental different mindset between western and eastern metals markets. You hold gold because it's a bet against everything. Your other choice is to wait for the collapse, but then you won't be able to get it. The East continues to drain the West of metals, but eventually supply will no longer be available. That will mark the end of the paper markets and the beginning of true price discovery. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - BRICS+ Currency System18:58 - The Naked Emperor26:50 - West Needs Cooperation32:35 - Silver is Interesting38:15 - Equally Great Nations?41:16 - Metals & Manipulations44:45 - Metals as Insurance50:55 - True Price Discovery1:01:40 - Distortions & Bubbles1:11:30 - Credit Bubbles & Gold1:14:13 - Wrap Up Talking Point From Part Two How a BRICS+ Currency System is likely to evolve.Why the West needs cooperation among nations.Metals manipulation and the importance of having physical metals.The distortions in Western markets and system credit market problems. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa5XOgYU8ac_Ai4C1QXPOIg The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that, we believe, are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual. The site is run by ‘London Paul' and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul' is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity. Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally, a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major banks until the financial crisis of 2008, when he left the banking sector to work in the precious metals sector. In addition to his vast understanding of economics and precious metals (a friend of his once jokingly said that ‘Paul is the only person I know who really understands derivatives'), he has also always had a keen interest in geopolitics. Through years of diligent research and conversations with certain key insiders, he has been able to gain a unique understanding of ...

    London Paul: Part 1 – War, New Reserve Currencies & Crumbling Empires

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 63:19


    In this two-part presentation, Tom welcomes back Paul from The Sirius Report to begin a discussion on the rapidly evolving multipolar world. In part two, we dive further into the BRICS Currency System and why gold and silver can protect you from all possible outcomes of an uncertain future. Paul is concerned with the unintended consequences of the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions. The sanctions demonstrated clearly the level of ignorance within the West. They misunderstand how the Russian economy works and their alternative systems to SWIFT. Since 2014, Russia has been constructing new domestic markets to diversify themselves away from the West. He explains the idea of the 'Global South' which includes 87 percent of the world's population that exists outside Europe and North America. The rest of the world took notice when Russian assets we're seized, and most countries are concerned they could be next. Dedollarization is working because other nations are finding ways to use their own currencies to circumvent the dollar system. They are starting to avoid the expensive dollar by dealing directly with each other. Europe and particularly Germany has been reliant on cheap energy from Russia. These nations could have signed long-term contracts last year for energy, but now the prices are much higher. The United States has been pressing the narrative that Russia is not trustworthy, even though they have been an extremely reliable trade partner. Countries can't simply change energy suppliers overnight, and "It's almost like a comedy of errors with potential catastrophic consequences." Europe is still receiving Russian energy through backdoor channels with other nations, but at much higher prices. The West can't change course on Russia due to the amount of political capital that has been invested. Cooperation is happening between the global south and trade is already growing. The West doesn't understand how China and Russia's economies actually function. Soon, the global south will not need the west. Western politics is a constant conflict and a total waste of time. It's just an illusion of choice, and practically nothing gets achieved. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:24 - Sanctions & Consequences6:50 - The Global South17:48 - Japan & Treasuries19:07 - European Energy & Germany28:18 - Blame Russia & Politics32:47 - SWIFT Flight & Trade35:34 - Economic Planning42:29 - Ukraine in Collapse50:17 - Russian Fixation52:58 - Complexities54:52 - Red Lines & Escalation Talking Point From Part One The lack of understanding and consequences of Western nations regarding Russia and China.Why the era of cheap energy for Europe is now over.The lack of West to have long-term economic plans and the consequences.Europe's fixation on Russia and why politically they can't change course. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa5XOgYU8ac_Ai4C1QXPOIg The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that, we believe, are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual. The site is run by ‘London Paul' and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul' is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity. Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally, a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major...

    Diego Parrilla: Gold – The Anti-Fiat Bubble

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2022 73:19


    Tom welcomes back Diego Parrilla to the show. Diego is an author, engineer and economist. He has an extensive background in commodities, having worked for several major banks. Diego believes the Fed hiking cycle is approaching its peak as we enter next year. There are limits to how high they can go, and the rate of hiking cycles has placed a lot of pressure on markets. The dollar has been putting pressure on other countries. There are pockets of weakness in the system, and it's difficult to know what might burst first. How rapidly the Fed will pivot will depend on how markets react and the credit markets. Currency markets will also be a concern and there is excess hidden leverage in the system. Hopefully, central banks will learn the risks of zero and negative interest rates. The result is gross mis-allocations within the economic system. Everything revolves around inflation and as we enter the next phase of markets, there is a perception that we will print less. Diego believes the inevitable result will be even more money printing. Eventually, the only way to sustain the system will be to grant central banks yield curve control. To prevent bubbles from imploding they will need to print more and that will result in further inflation. We're just delaying, transferring, transforming, and enlarging the problems. The energy situation in Europe is very interesting because it shows the problems that have built up. There is a reliance on Russia and a lack of capital investment. Governments want energy security, but the problems can be exacerbated by hoarding. Energy subsidies will only increase the problems of production capacity. He explains why he likes gold and feels that it is an anti-bubble investment option, even though it's been frustrating for many investors recently. He cautions that now is not the time to be using leverage and discusses how best to position one's portfolio. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Q4 Outlook3:50 - Lag Effects10:06 - Fed & Wealth Effects17:54 - Energy & Europe24:24 - Russia's Resources32:25 - China Outlook37:14 - Hong Kong Peg45:30 - Gold the Anti-Bubble50:48 - Gold & Hike Response54:56 - Volatility & Rebalancing1:11:08 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The Fed is reaching its rate hiking limits.The speed of the Fed's pivot will depend on the credit markets.Central banks will eventually be forced to use yield curve control as debts are unsustainable.Why gold is the ultimate anti-fiat bubble. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/ParrillaDiegoWebsite: https://www.linkedin.com/in/diego-parrilla-0a2b5530/Website: https://www.getrevue.co/profile/parrilladiegoWebsite: https://quadrigafunds.esBooks (Amazon):https://tinyurl.com/5a3pkjskhttps://tinyurl.com/ctdcmeb3 Diego Parrilla is Partner and Manager of Macro Commodities. He joined Quadriga in March 2017 with nearly twenty years of experience in macro, commodities, and sales and trading in London, Singapore, and New York. He has managed risk and global teams in prestigious investment banks, such as J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch, in various global leadership roles. In 2011, Diego founded Natural Resources and Commodity Advisors (NARECO) in Singapore, advising institutional customers and managing macro strategies and raw materials. He then joined the management team at BlueCrest as Portfolio Manager, managing $150m in macro absolute value strategies and raw materials. Later he led raw materials businesses at Dymon Asia and Old Mutual Global Investors in Singapore before returning to Spain to join Quadriga Asset Managers as Partner and Manager of Macro Commodities.

    Jesse Felder: The Fed NEEDS more Unemployment to Win Over Inflation

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2022 61:37


    Tom welcomes back Jesse Felder. Jessie is the founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report. Jesse discusses the various reasons people get involved in markets, and why it's not always money. It's remarkable how well financial magazine covers like Bloomberg tend to signal a reversal. Recently, Bloomberg posted a cover with the unstoppable dollar, that aged well. These types of indicator are indicative of extremes. The rising dollar is driven by hawkish Fed policy, raising rates over a short-term period. The market has priced in smaller hikes over the next few months. The Fed may surprise to the dovish side due to a deteriorating economy. The Fed has trained the markets to expect them to come running to the rescue. Now they seem to have flipped to the opposite policy. The markets also know that the Fed can't afford another massive asset price bust. Jay Powell can't do what Paul Volcker did without creating a debt spiral. A strong dollar, higher interest rates, and surging oil prices is a clear leading indicator that a recession is coming. With the Fed printing a lot of new money recently, bond markets have become divorced from reality. Economic factors should drive bond prices, but supply and demand dynamics for bonds is becoming problematic. The debt has become so large that perhaps bonds no longer serve the role they once did. He explains why the number of passive investors makes for incredible possibilities for value investors. Jesse believes the commodity markets will continue to outperform for a considerable period. Sectors that have been starved of capital are likely to outperform in coming years. Most investors have completely lost interest in the mining sector and gold. He shows an interesting chart of where gold prices could head from here based on past performance. Gold is quite cheap relative to the price of oil. Be diversified and hedge your bets because we are in unprecedented times. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - History Vs. Human Nature4:00 - Dollar Euphoria & Sentiment8:35 - Dollar Path Forward15:50 - Fed Policy & Inflation22:42 - PPI Chart & Recession25:00 - Rate Hikes27:07 - Bond Vigilantes31:03 - Mortgage Applications34:06 - Cycles & Value Investing38:49 - Resource Underinvestment44:15 - Gold Sector Outlook47:40 - Gold Vs. Oil Ratio48:20 - Gold Vs. Stocks52:35 - Dollar Sentiment Shift?55:05 - Debt Challenges & MMT57:56 - Debt Spiral Risk59:19 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Sentiment and the alternate reasons why investors get involved in markets.The Fed has trained investor's to believe they will always intervene.Distortions in the bond markets have broken economic reality.Why value investing has great potential. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jessefelderWebsite: https://thefelderreport.com/ Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter, his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.

    Michael Gayed: The Only Year in History when Treasuries have Lost More than Stocks

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2022 41:48


    Tom welcomes back Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management. Michael is the author and publisher of the Lead-Lag Report. Michael discusses how insane this year has been and how this is the only year in history where treasuries have lost more money than stocks. The only period it can be compared with is 1931. We're in very abnormal territory. People can get overly comfortable if something isn't happening immediately. We saw that with FTX and Lehman Brothers collapses. The beauty of FinTwit is the ability to see the short-term perspective of investors. Michael says, "When investment becomes religion, it's time to lose faith." This is what happens in markets people get overly confident in markets, and we're seeing margin calls in crypto. Usually, margin calls aren't limited to just one asset class. He explains the terms risk on and risk off. For the bulk of this year, Toroso's signals have been risk-off and defensive. The melt-up scenario is still very much in play, but we're in a recession. Melt ups are basically just FOMO which eventually fizzle out. A split government isn't a bad thing for markets and the economy. The best thing is to lower fiscal spending to reduce inflationary pressures long term. In many ways, the Fed may be trying to counter seasonality. The strength in the dollar is usually tied to a good treasury market, but this year is the exception. The persistence of the dollar has been relentless until recently. The bear market will continue to take some time to play out. We're setting records for the rate of change in many areas. All the statistics are showing that something is not normal. All investors can do is hope that it ends, and Michael is seeing some reason for optimism. Gold needs the dollar to underperform, and the market needs to believe that a bear market will persist. The link between miners and gold price is not that correlated. Miners are dependent on additional factors like energy and input costs to consider. At some point, we end up in a similar debt to GDP situation with that of Japan. Who knows where we will be in another ten years. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Sanity Check3:26 - Contagion & Risk8:54 - Melt Up Thesis16:22 - Fed & China18:48 - OPEC & SPR21:53 - Commodities & Lumber23:50 - Dollar Strength26:25 - Foreign Dollar Demand29:39 - Gold & The Dollar32:17 - Gold Miners33:29 - Layoffs & Retail36:44 - Pivot & Future Inflation38:49 - Brazil40:45 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Week's Episode Why this year is highly abnormal in U.S. history.Risk on and off metrics and why he is positioned defensively.Why a split government is good for the economy and inflation expectations.The outlook for gold and correlations with miners. Guest Links:Website: https://www.leadlagreport.com/Website: http://torosoinv.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/theleadlagreport Michael A. Gayed, CFA, is Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management, an award-winning author and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report. Michael is a well-respected results-oriented Investment Manager, showcasing 15 years of successfully executing initiatives that result in significant revenue growth. In addition, he is known for identifying and implementing various investment strategies to capture market anomalies while maintaining a business mindset beyond portfolio management. Michael offers a proven track record of evaluating business/investment opportunities, quickly understanding market dynamics and relationships. He is also an out-of-the-box thinker committed to strengthening organizations' financial performance through dedicated hard work and a passion for investing. He is a graduate of (Cum Laude) NYU Stern School of Business with a Double Major in Finance & Management and holds a Bachelor of Science in Finance & Management. In addition, he is a Chartered Financial Analyst from the CFA Institute.

    Danielle DiMartino Booth: A Wave of Junk Debt Could Force the Fed to Pivot

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 19, 2022 45:49


    Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm. Danielle discusses the amount of work that goes into every press release the Fed puts out. They have a hypersensitivity to how and what they place in these releases. Powell has a largely thankless job, and the question is are they relying on lagging information. Danielle recently nicknamed Jerome Powell "make my day Jay" when he was told the markets were up during a press conference. We're seeing larger moves in housing than was expected. Home prices are falling in half of the U.S. while some regions see prices still increasing as some people see it as an opportunity. Amazon needs to match consumer demand, and we see them laying off people as demand declines. We're now seeing surplus inventory in the supply chains that no one is buying. Powell's pain point will come when something critical breaks in the credit markets. A yield curve inversion signalled that credit would be tightening. However, now the way to interpret it is in terms of banks extending credit. If banks can't see profit in lending, they won't lend, and then the economy will slow. Lastly, Danielle discusses the recent FTX crypto exchange collapse and the concept of Central Bank Digital Currencies. Tom notes that the Ontario Teachers Pension had 90+ million invested in FTX. This is not the place you expect to find your pension plan investing diligently. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Fed & Press Releases2:28 - Powell Nickname5:13 - Carvana & Auto Sales7:59 - Housing & CPI Metrics13:22 - Wage Price Spiral19:07 - CPI & PPI Numbers23:05 - Fed Politics & Recessions27:40 - Powell & Credit Markets33:20 - Fed Data & Actions35:33 - U.S. & U.K. Pension Systems38:12 - Crypto & Regulators40:05 - CBDCs & Governments44:55 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The Fed's micromanaging approach to press releases.The Recent Fed press statement and Jerome's responding aggressively to being told markets we're up.The housing markets and excess supply in goods that no one is buying.The problems with pensions and the crypto markets. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothWebsite: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets. Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette,

    Joseph Wang: Significant Inflation Coming for the Next Decade

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2022 64:19


    Tom welcomes a new guest, Joseph Wang. Joseph is a former Senior Trader at the Federal Reserve's Open Market Desk and is the Author of Central Banking 101. Joseph discusses the Fed's trading desk, which is also known as the plunge protection team. It collects market intelligence and performs Fed operations. The desk analyzes market activity and reports to the board of governors for their decision-making. They also have access to a lot of confidential corporate internal data. For him this was a very educational experience as it revealed a lot of what goes on behind the curtain. He explains how the Fed can mitigate inflation through prices and the wealth effect. He believes yield curve control is inevitable due to the incredible amount of debt issuance. The Fed is using the technique of making everyone a little bit poorer with the intent of muting inflation. Inflation is always a choice that governments can make, and it's also easy for them to reduce the money supply through taxation. The question is how bad are the side effects. It's all about trade-offs. He discusses how the Fed is trying to target the real estate market. Housing is more susceptible to interest rate hikes, and it appears to be correcting. If necessary, they could increase the regulatory costs to banks for mortgages. There is significant geopolitical risk in the world, and we see a proxy war between the West and Russia. The concern is that people abroad will try to hide their money in safer jurisdictions. Therefore, we could see significant inflows into the United States. Talking Points From This Episode How the Fed operates behind the scenes.The various tools the Fed has at its disposal.Why there is huge treasury market risk.Why geopolitical concerns could bring foreign capital into the United States. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:06 - Fed Open Market Desk4:07 - Inflation & Data6:44 - Fed Data & Response13:22 - Fed Tools16:33 - The Balance Sheet20:42 - Treasury Buy-Backs25:06 - Debt Ceiling Thoughts28:33 - Debt Servicing & Deficits34:29 - Fed & Other Countries37:25 - Pivot Possibilities41:36 - Talking Down Markets44:17 - Inflation Targets48:24 - Energy & Resources50:05 - Credit Growth & Stocks53:14 - Treasury Market Risk55:40 - Treasury Auctions1:00:25 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://fedguy.comBook: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747/Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wang spent five years studying the plumbing of the financial system as a senior trader on the open market's desk. The Desk sits at the center of the dollar system as its ultimate and infinite provider of dollars. It has access to virtually all regulatory and financial data, as well as open lines of communication with all major market participants. It is one of the few places in the world where one can definitively learn how the system works. Before joining the Desk, Joseph was a credit analyst and in another life he practiced law. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Northwestern University, a J.D. from Columbia Law School, and an M.Sc. in Financial Economics from Oxford University.

    Chris Irons: The World is Turning To Gold Amidst Armageddon in Crypto

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 16, 2022 62:17


    Tom welcomes back Chris Irons, host of the Quoth The Raven podcast, to the show. A note of caution, once again, Chris takes the gloves off so some swearing ensues. Chris discusses the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, and it's CEO, Bankman-Fried. This guy seems like a run-of-the-mill con artist. There were a bunch of young kids playing and losing billions of dollars. Everything points to outright fraud, including past direct statements of the CEO himself. The concern now is how many other operations are about to blow up. We could be seeing a loss of confidence in the crypto space, as everything in crypto exists in a gray area. It's basically brand new and currently there isn't significant demand for it. Crypto has been a blow-off valve for all the liquidity in the global markets. This blow up portends further problems in the space and some of the contagion will spill over to other markets. He questions how they can let Tether move forward from here given this collapse. They will be under far more scrutiny, and Tether could be an even bigger problem than what we have seen with FTX. Chris believes that even if the Fed were to cut rates tomorrow, there would still be a market blow up. The speed at which they have raised rates is breakneck and stunning. There is a lag in the economic plumbing between the rate changes and the impact being felt. The Fed should have raised rates some time ago, but instead they appear to act cowardly. Real rates have to reach positive territory for the Fed to truly declare victory. Good luck with that. Talking Points From This Week's Episode The consequences and contagion with the FTX debacle.Crypto and Tether is going to receive much more scrutiny.Fed's policies and why a stock market decline is already baked in. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - FTX Crypto Carnage9:03 - Massive Deception13:14 - Bitcoin and Gold19:44 - Fed Pivot & Reality26:58 - 'War' on Inflation30:20 - Statistics & Signs40:07 - Rates & Housing47:50 - Fed & Credit55:50 - C.B. Gold Buying1:01:12 - Wrap Up Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast.

    Nate Fisher & Steve St. Angelo: The Collapse of Increasingly Complex Societies

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2022 86:45


    Today, we are once again joined by Steve St. Angelo and also Nate Fisher. Nate wants to analyze the risks involved in the energy situation of the world. It's important to discuss the situation in bytes larger than 140 characters. The concept of this podcast is to convey awareness and figure out solutions to the potential risk factors. If an energy cliff is coming soon, how can you thoroughly prepare? Risk analysis usually entails the concepts of accept, avoid, transfer, or mitigate. Steve discusses his energy return on investment thesis and how modern society compares with past civilizational collapses. We're reaching an energy cliff where declining oil production accelerates. We're just not finding as much economic oil. At some point, we're not going to be able to replace the declines. Oil production and the world population curve are highly correlated. Nate discusses possible ways we could mitigate the energy cliff for a time. Nuclear plants are more expensive and take longer to construct, and therefore we are "starting to run out that clock." We need better battery technologies, and hopefully advances in I.T. will help bring those about. We're in a race between a lack of energy and the promise of new technology. Nate discusses the idea of having physical precious metals as a method of insurance. Lastly, Steve speaks to the idea of adding complexity to solve difficult problems actually exacerbates the situation. The solution is for things to become more simple and self-sustaining on an individual level. Talking Points From This Episode Systemic risks and ways of mitigation.Energy Return on Investment and potential impacts of modern civilization's energy use.ESG, resource efficiency, and energy consumption.Some other promising technologies that could be beneficial. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Energy Risk Discussion5:38 - Energy Cliff - EROI8:58 - Energy System Waste12:40 - Debt vs. Oil & Gas EROI15:40 - Conservation Methods21:15 - Green Solutions?29:38 - Nuclear & Cheap Coal38:33 - Green at Home?44:20 - Moore's Law and I.T.52:10 - Battery Technology55:14 - Electric Mining & Farming1:03:56 - Supply Chains & EROI1:10:54 - Precious Metals1:15:33 - Various Factors1:20:30 - Conclusion Past Show Link with Steve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUE7u_HICp8 Nate Fisher Guest Links:Website: https://renaissancemen.org/Twitter: https://twitter.com/natefishpa Nate Fisher is an IT contract project manager living in York, PA. He has an undergrad in Information systems along with a master's degree in cybersecurity and business administration. Nate has many side interests, including investing with precious metals, mining, and rental properties. He is a part-time blogger that writes about PMs, miners, and health and fitness. Nate is a self-described renaissance man, and you can find out more from his website and Twitter. Steve St. Angelo - Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI "Energy Returned On Invested" stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy. Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites. You can find many of Steve's articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-Klare-Blick,

    James B. Meigs: The Road to an Energy Crisis

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2022 51:40


    Tom welcomes James Meigs to the program. James is senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and Contributor to City Journal. He formerly worked on three magazines as editor, including Popular Mechanics. James discusses how his views on nuclear energy have changed over his career. Studying our existing grid and the problems around carbon dioxide has changed his views. Good clean energy solutions are few and far between, and nuclear can fill a key role in base energy. Wind and solar have a place, but they are difficult to use as a foundation for the grid. Nuclear provides that steady, reliable power source for months on end. Which is essential for modern society. James explains the purpose of the Manhattan Institute to find solutions that are compatible with free markets. Maximum individual and business freedom while not relying on heavy-handed government interventions. There are practical solutions that market forces can bring. Governments have bad records at figuring out rapidly evolving technology. We need rapid progress in clear zero carbon energy that works for the consumer. Europe and Germany in particular have seen themselves as green power pioneers. Germany wanted to ween themselves from coal, gas and oil. However, they weren't able to get away from using coal like they imagined. Likewise, they spent a fortune on electricity before the war, and now we see a huge drag on the economy. We could see major industries shut down this winter and homes that go unheated. Modern economic activity has largely been decoupled from carbon emissions. However, energy is necessary to run everything, and therefore it's important not to abandon existing technologies. Grids are less reliable when nuclear power is decommissioned. The truth is that modern reactors don't take that long to decommission. Funds are normally set aside during operations to pay for the decommissioning process. Nuclear is the most regulated energy market in the United States. It's an extremely long process to license and permit these plants. France has had the most success with reducing carbon output. They became quite concerned during the 70s as to their energy security. So, they invested heavily in Nuclear Power by building a couple of dozen nuclear plants. Today, their grid is run from 70% nuclear sources. Not only that, but they have lower prices than most of the rest of Europe. James is excited about some of the nuclear technology that is in development. There is a lot of cool research that has been done in nuclear within the United States, but we haven't deployed these ideas commercially. Many of these plants could be much smaller and modular. Instead of powering a major city, we could power individual manufacturing plants or remote sites like in Alaska. These would be built in factories and trucked to their locations. They are inherently safe and would not require constant supervision. Lastly, he discusses the potential of nuclear fusion and the technologies behind carbon capture and sequestration. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Nuclear Energy2:40 - Manhattan Institute4:42 - Europe & Energy7:23 - Carbon Tax Reality12:47 - New Tech. Costs16:15 - Green Subsidizes21:26 - Reopening Plants28:35 - Carbon-Neutral Energy31:00 - Green & Grid Stability34:33 - Future Nuclear Tech.39:17 - Nuclear Roadblocks42:15 - Fusion in 20 Years?45:30 - Carbon Capture50:16 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode How views are gradually changing on the benefits of nuclear energy.The purpose behind the Manhattan Institute.The problems with green energy and trying to transition too quickly from carbon-based sources.Why France has benefitted greatly from nuclear and what the future holds in newer technology. Guest links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jamesbmeigsWebsite: https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/james-b-meigsWebsite: https://www.howdowefixit.me/Twitter: https://twitter.com/fixitshow James B.

    Vincent Lanci: Sell Pressure, Market Dynamics, & Central Bank Illusions

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2022 47:03


    Tom welcomes Vincent Lanci back to the show. Vince questions the speculative nature of the World Gold Council's gold buying report. Ultimately, Central Bank gold buying is likely bullish, but the reports numbers will certainly be revised at some point and should be taken with some caution. Vince discusses basic supply demand economics and how they apply to the gold market. Some of these Central Bank deals are done gradually, and such selling may not cause large price swings. When gold moves up less than two percent, it rarely persists. Generally, such moves retrace themselves within a week. These large moves are unusual and indicate that something has shifted. Vince says, "Mr. Slammy has been absent. The slams may not happen to the extent they did in the past. The depths of hits aren't what they used to be. The last week or so haven't seen significant selling in gold." Vince discusses the seasonality with gold and the reasons why they occur. These seasons are often correlated with investors rebalancing their portfolio at various times of the year. Based on the historic patterns of commodities, Goldman's renewed interest in gold is a bullish sign. They are writing again about gold and discussing a coming supercycle in commodities. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - C.B. Gold Buying5:18 - Supply Dynamics8:40 - Sentiment & Criteria16:22 - Japan, Gold, & Bonds25:44 - Recent Gold Behavior32:24 - Buy Season & Big Funds?37:06 - 'Buyish' Market Signals44:30 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The fundamentals behind gold market buying and supply/demand.Gold's recent moves have been unusual and seem bullish.Seasonality in the metals and markets and why Goldman's outlook is buy-ish. Guest Links:Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/PalisadesTomSpecialWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/ Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC, and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge. In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN. From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time. From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC, option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.

    Luke Gromen: The US Fed and Treasury are at Odds

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2022 58:02


    Tom welcomes back Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees back to the show. Luke discusses how Russia has proven to be far more resilient than the West expected. They are massively miscalculating Russia's true GDP, which can be calculated based on the value of a barrel of oil. We're now seeing the consequences as Europe and the U.K. both have an energy crisis. The U.S. has tried to mitigate the impact by dipping into the Strategic Reserve. He says, "If you want to understand the true value of oil, fill up your car, go for a long drive until you run out, and then push it back to where you started." We've had the worst year in treasury markets since 1798. Russia was successful in defending their currency since they required 'less friendly' buyers to pay with Rubles. The West wants to cap Russia's energy prices, but that seems quite unrealistic. The U.S. is seeing shortages of distillates and high diesel prices, while inflation remains persistent. There is a feedback mechanism between energy, inflation, and sovereign debt markets. Energy is required for everything, and cheap energy is necessary to maintain the system at current sovereign debt levels. We are starting to see debt sustainability issues. Energy eventually connects back in a feedback loop, as everything is inter-related. At some point, things break, as we've seen with the U.K. pensions. Rising dollars create a bad situation for everyone. It weakens domestic corporations and ultimately turns everything into a balance sheet contest. There is an argument that running the dollar up will hurt the U.S. last, but what if the U.S. is wrong this time, and it doesn't hurt Russia, China, and India that much. Countries seem to be accumulating gold instead of dollars, and a recent buyer of 300 billion worth did not their identity. This is starting to look like a transition away from the dollar and into gold. OPEC may have been making a strategic move with Saudi Arabia. They realize that if the West can choke out Russia, then they're likely next. Also concerning is that the U.S. has demonstrated its willingness to steal FX reserves of other nations. Gold is likely to be a politically managed metal until the day it is not. The Treasury recently stated on Monday that the U.S. Federal deficit is expected to double next year. This throws pressure back on the Fed and certainly means that rates and the dollar will continue rising. It looks like the Fed and Treasury are fighting. Once the U.S. fiscal situation gets acute enough, you're going to see gold take off. When the Fed finally pivots, it should be good for both energy and metals markets. Currently, energy is looking excellent compared with treasuries. A Fed pivot is likely to happen sooner rather than later, but they have not budged so far. Larry Summers has stated that we are nearing a "doom loop". Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Global Signposts8:32 - Treasuries & Energy12:25 - Yields & a Rising Dollar15:52 - Oil In Other Currencies23:14 - Foreign Reserves & Gold26:40 - Purpose of OPEC Cuts28:52 - C.B. Gold Demand32:43 - Basel & Derivatives35:33 - MOVE Index & The Fed36:52 - Treasury Borrowing 2X41:36 - Energy Markets & Bonds44:14 - Fed Pivot Effects45:32 - Hikes & Sector Risks52:14 - Fed & Inflation Targets53:15 - Canada & China Divestment57:06 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The West's miscalculation of the true value of energy.Treasury market risks and why the West needs cheap energy.The U.S. Fiscal deficit is set to double next year.Why the metals and energy are both likely to do well when the Fed pivots. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/ Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clie...

    Grant Williams: Rumors of War and Whiplash as the Old Paradigm Ends

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 5, 2022 62:53


    Tom welcomes a new and yet well-known guest, Grant Williams, to the show. Grant discusses how being flexible in mindset is important as in the world of social media, people can be quite dogmatic. Admitting your mistakes is key, as everyone is just trying to figure out the future. He is quite cautious about giving actionable advice because people may not understand how he came to his conclusions. Helping people come to their own decisions is better than simply telling people what to do. Jim Cramer is an example of someone who spews nonsense and provides generally bad advice every day. Everyone and everything today is at risk in these volatile times. People need to be aware. Things are changing and government's may intervene in ways that benefit them at your expense. There are plenty of pensions around the West that are carefully re-evaluating their risks given what happened in the United Kingdom. Many of these are vulnerable because they have taken on more risks to find returns. Grant discusses the importance of having a plan for positioning and exiting in markets, and why it's crucial to avoid emotion. The hubris of Fed officials is remarkable, and the fact they've raised interest rates four times demonstrates just how bad a job they've been doing. Gold is not completely safe from confiscation, but there are always places in the world where it will be used. Bitcoin is likely to be directly competing with Central Bank Digital Currencies at some point, and that may entail additional risks. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:36 - Transitory Conclusions6:35 - Testing Your Ideas8:20 - Shifting Cycles & Risk14:03 - U.K. Cracks & Confidence19:10 - Dry Powder & Opportunity21:25 - Emotions & Trading26:12 - Confidence in Japan31:28 - Energy Prices & Crisis33:32 - Dollar Divestment38:14 - Existential Lines41:28 - Feds Extreme Hubris43:44 - Japan & Inflation?48:16 - Gold & Hedge Funds52:19 - Fiat Alternatives59:08 - Travel & Spending1:02:05 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.grant-williams.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ttmygh Grant Williams, much to his dismay, has logged over 35 years in finance. During that time, he's lived and worked in seven major financial centers from London to Sydney, building the kind of network that many others can only dream about. He began his career in the Japanese equity market in the mid-1980s, before a three-year posting to Tokyo ensured he had a ringside seat as the twin bubbles in equities and real estate burst simultaneously and spectacularly at the end of 1989. After a short stint back in London, Grant relocated once again, this time to New York, where he spent 7 years. Subsequent postings have taken him to Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, and the Cayman Islands. Currently, he is a senior advisor to Matterhorn Asset Management AG in Switzerland, and a portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore. Back in 2014, Grant's ambition to bring the most intelligent, engaging, and original people in finance to a wider audience led him to co-found Real Vision, an on-demand internet-based financial media platform. Grant's twin Real Vision interview series, In Conversation With… and On The Road, raised the bar for financial content – engaging and educating viewers in equal measure and helping them learn the secrets behind a group of extraordinary investors' success. Long before Real Vision, however, Grant was guiding people around the fringes of finance with his regular newsletter, "Things That Make You Go Hmmm…", a publication which, from humble beginnings as a daily note to a few friends and colleagues, has grown into one of the most widely read financial publications in the world.