Carnegie Politika Podcast

Russia's Victory Day public holiday, celebrated on May 9, has undergone a major transformation in Putin's Russia. Historically, it was a day of somber commemoration, and its main leitmotif was “Never again.” Under Putin, the holiday has become increasingly militaristic, with the memorial aspect now overshadowed by the far more belligerent slogan “We can do it again.” How did this happen, and what role does Victory Day play in the Putin regime today?

While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the war—including diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isn't achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his long list of reciprocal tariffs, many instantly noticed that one country had escaped any restrictions: Russia. Does that mean Russia is now a safe haven amid the ongoing economic storm? And what are the consequences for Moscow of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner?

Throughout the war, many people have been skeptical about how long Ukrainian society could hold up before inevitably collapsing under Russian pressure. After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. After his public dressing-down by Trump in the Oval Office, Zelensky's popularity only increased. But is the real picture more nuanced than this? What processes are unfolding right now inside Ukraine?

What is the reason for the sudden change of heart in U.S. policy on Russia under the Trump administration? One theory is that Donald Trump is trying to lure Russia out of China's sphere of influence and drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, a move described by some as a “reverse Kissinger.” How accurate is that theory, and does the U.S. administration have the instruments needed to pry China and Russia apart?

With the arrival of the new administration in the White House, everyone waited with bated breath for the first executive orders regarding the war in Ukraine. The actions of President Donald Trump and his team have not only damaged the United States' reputation, but also overall transatlantic unity and—most importantly—Ukraine's prospects of security guarantees and a lasting peace. After the latest high-profile talks in Saudi Arabia, the world has been left to ponder what it all means.

In 2022, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared “Zeitenwende”—a “turning point” in how Germany should think about its defense and security. As the third anniversary of the war approaches amid signs that the Trump administration wants to bring it to an end on terms favorable to Russia, Germany is yet to form a new government following the collapse of Scholz's coalition. What does the upcoming federal election mean for Germany and its role supporting Ukraine? What changes to German and EU defense can be expected, depending on the composition of the new coalition?

Since Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. president, ways to stop the carnage in Ukraine this year have been the subject of intense policy discussions in capitals around the world. Despite Trump's rhetoric about ending the war swiftly and forcing Putin into a deal, there is still no clear vision of how a cessation of hostilities could be reached. Does the new team in the White House have what it takes to secure a deal that guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty, and what is the way forward?

For a long time, oil and gas sales were the Russian economy's main source of income. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and U.S. have unleashed unprecedented sanctions upon the Russian energy sector. The effectiveness of this pressure is hotly debated, since Russia has proved able to continue its assault.What is the current state of the Russian oil and gas sector? How have the last three years changed Russia's approach to selling energy commodities, and how have developments affected the global energy market? Check out Sergey's piece on the Russian shadow fleet for Carnegie Politika – https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-oil-fleet-sanctions?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasiaAnd Sergey's piece for Financial Times (subject to a paywall) – https://www.ft.com/content/68403277-9cda-491c-aeeb-7dbe77850df6

Russia has had a strong military presence in Syria ever since 2015, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad and pushing back the rebels. But in the space of a few days this month, the rebels were able to take major cities including Damascus and overthrow the government. Assad was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Moscow. What does this mean for Russia, which had invested a lot of resources in Syria and used it as a bargaining chip in the power play in the Middle East? What will the fallout be from this sudden change of political climate?

After the long-awaited decision of the United States to allow the use of Western-made weapons against internationally recognized Russian territory, Russia retaliated by launching an Oreshnik missile, which it claims is a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile. With many details about the new missile still unknown, the danger of possible nuclear escalation looms over the world, leaving decisionmakers in the West grappling with the question of how to navigate such dangerous terrain.Host - Alex GabuevGuest - James ActonMusic by Liam Gordon

For many, the recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election looks like a clear win for the Kremlin. Trump has promised to stop the war in Ukraine swiftly—presumably on terms more favorable to Moscow than to Kyiv. But does the president-elect really have what it takes to convince Moscow to stop its relentless assault on Ukraine? What steps does he need to take to attempt to secure the promised peace deal? What will happen if those efforts fail?

Russia is using agents of influence, propaganda, vote buying, and the Orthodox Church to retain influence in Moldova. With a presidential election looming, the people of Moldova must decide whether they want to continue the EU-integration course led by President Maia Sandu, or whether to spurn it and pursue a different path, all while Russia tries to seek and invent new ways to remove agency from what it considers “a potential part of Russia.” You can read Maksim Samorukov's recent paper on Moldova here: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/moldova-russia-strategy?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia Host – Alexander GabuevGuests – Paula Erizanu and Maksim SamorukovProduced by Dmitrii KuznetsovMusic by Liam Gordon

Despite predictions that the Russian military budget had reached its peak, the recently announced 2025/26 budget shows otherwise. To keep the war machine oiled and functioning, the Russian government is once again raising military spending substantially to levels not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some in the Russian elites believe that ongoing high demand in the military industrial complex will expedite economic growth. Several miscalculations by the West and a lack of massive military achievements from Ukraine have allowed the Russian economy to withstand the pressure of sanctions. But how sustainable is the current economic strategy, and how long can Putin fund his atrocious war while damaging crucial yet vulnerable economic sectors like healthcare, education, and science?Read Kolyandr's piece on Western sanctions for Carnegie Politika:https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-eu-sanctions-trade?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasiaHost — Alex GabuevGuests — Alexandra Prokopenko, Alexander KolyandrProducer — Dmitrii KuznetsovMusic by Liam Gordon 

In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small paramilitary groups, the incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be more strategic and serious. Russia was forced to retreat, leaving behind a lot of conscripts who were taken as prisoners of war by the Ukrainian army. While the operation seems to be slowing down, its long lasting consequences are still not clear. Regional governments in border regions of Russia are trying to maintain the facade of life as usual while evacuating people from the affected area.The Kremlin, meanwhile, is looking for a way to counteract the enemy's operation and recover from such a reputational blow for a nuclear state.

Russia's unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against the Russian threat, other key questions were left unanswered. Can Ukraine become a full member of the alliance? When can this happen? The open-ended confrontation in Eastern Europe, and the risks posed by a belligerent Russia, have resulted in a situation that is more ripe for escalation than the darkest days of the Cold War.In this episode, renowned historian Mary Elise Sarotte discusses the roots of the current crisis. Author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post–Cold War Stalemate, Mary Elise Sarotte is also Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at Johns Hopkins University. What should the U.S. and Europe do before it's too late to help Ukraine? How are the historical cases of Norway and West Germany joining NATO relevant to Ukraine today? What can history teach us when it comes to preventing the security situation in Europe from getting even worse?Further reading:- Sarotte, M.E., A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO, Foreign Affairs

The war in Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. These countries—Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia—find themselves in what we have termed an “arc of instability” between Russia and the European Union.  

Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signals being exchanged between Moscow and Pyongyang, and addresses the question of whether a real alliance might be on the cards.

Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new government. The most significant change is to the Defense Ministry, which will now be led by Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist and former deputy prime minister. Coming amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and notable arrests within the Defense Ministry, the reshuffle has prompted questions about Kremlin priorities. What will Belousov's first moves as defense minister be? How will his predecessor Sergei Shoigu's role evolve, and how might it impact the frontline in Ukraine?

Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities remain steadfast in their insistence that Ukraine and "Western forces" orchestrated the indiscriminate murder of over 140 people. What does this fixation on Ukraine signify for Russia's regime stability? Is there genuine conviction within Putin's inner circle that Ukraine masterminded the attack? And what real threats does Russia face from radicalization in Central Asia?

Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further solidified Belarus's position as a close satellite state. What does this mean for the future of Belarus? What roles do Lukashenko and the Belarusian elite play? And how should the West re-evaluate its approach to Belarus in light of these circumstances?

Russia's presidential election this month shattered all previous records, with president Putin "securing" an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote. The critical question now is: how will Putin's re-election be perceived, both domestically and internationally? Is he a legitimate leader in the eyes of Russians and the global community?

The sudden death of the jailed Russian opposition leader was a shock, though it was not unexpected. For the last decade, Navalny had been the most vocal critic and opponent of Putin's regime, while his Anti-Corruption Foundation had supporters in almost all Russian regions and cities. Only Navalny was able to consolidate people across Russia in waves of protests against corruption and the authoritarian regime. What impact has Navalny's death had on Russian society and the opposition movement? What is Navalny's legacy? Is there any other person inside or outside Russia who can lead the opposition to Putin's regime now?  

The Western sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its full-blown invasion of Ukraine were not just designed to put a cost on Moscow's actions, but also to stem the flow of materials and money enabling it to wage war. Why did this hope fall short, and how is Putin's wartime economy faring as we approach 2024 and the second anniversary of the invasion? What do we know of the current state of the Russian economy, and what indicators can we use to plot its trajectory?

Since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian society has adapted to living amid conflict. Despite initial predictions that public outrage would topple the regime, the majority of Russians have consolidated around the Kremlin, viewing it as a defender against a perceived threat from the West. How accurate are wartime opinion polls? How have the dynamics of support for the war in Russia changed during the past year? Which events have changed public perceptions in Russia over the last 18 months? What needs to happen in 2024 to bring about a change in these perceptions?

It's been more than a month since Hamas attacked Israel, reigniting the Middle East crisis once again and switching the focus of other political players to the region. Is Russia benefiting from the escalation in the conflict? How is it affecting the war in Ukraine? And what are the long-term consequences for Russia's position as a global player in the Middle East?

Just two months ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the infamous Wagner mercenary army, dominated global headlines after his short-lived mutiny against the Russian military and political leadership. Until recently, Prigozhin was considered a leading Russian politician, with some even believing he could rival President Vladimir Putin. Yet his highly suspicious death did not spark any outrage or visible consequences within Russia. What was behind the Prigozhin phenomenon? What does his untimely death mean for Russia's political elites? And what will Putin's regime look like now that Prigozhin is gone?

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Sophia Besch, a fellow at the Carnegie Europe Program, and Eric Ciaramello, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.The recent NATO summit in Vilnius is being labeled by many as a historic moment for the future of European security, and Ukraine's in particular. What were the summit's key results? How will the accession of Sweden to the alliance change the security role of the Baltic Sea? And is the plan for future NATO accession enough to satisfy Ukrainian society?

Alex Gabuev is joined by Tom de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Anna Ohanyan, a nonresident senior scholar at Carnegie's Russia and Eurasia program, to discuss developments in and around the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh. As the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be inching toward a resolution, is the new political reality accepted in Armenia? What does Azeri President Ilham Aliyev hope to achieve? How will the failure of Russian peacekeepers to intervene in recent developments affect the relationship between Moscow and Yerevan? Is the rivalry between competing Western and Russian resolution tracks an asset or a hindrance? And how will an eventual resolution impact on the political systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Why did Xi Jinping choose to visit Moscow at a time when Russia has been ostracized by the global community for its invasion of Ukraine? Did both sides get what they wanted from the visit? Has Russia resigned itself to being the junior partner in this burgeoning relationship? What is China's agenda in putting forward a peace plan for Ukraine? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Research, and Vita Spivak, an analyst at Control Risks and non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev and Sergei Vakulenko, a new non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, discuss the energy dimension of the ongoing battle between Russia and the West. How successful was Russia's plan to wreak economic havoc in Europe by choking gas supplies? Can Europe breathe a sigh of relief, or will Russian energy blackmail still a be threat next winter? How effective have Western energy sanctions been in cutting off the cash flow for the Kremlin's war machine? And what impact has the war in Ukraine had on the green agenda, both in Russia and beyond? Read Vakulenko's piece on how Russian oil companies defied sanctions and paid less tax here: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89052

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses what the next few months may have in store together with Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, and Mark Galeotti, CEO of Mayak Intelligence. As the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches, Ukraine is set to receive Western battle tanks, while Russia is believed to be planning a new offensive. What military developments can we expect to see in the next few months? What impact will the Western tanks have on Ukraine's capabilities, and why has the West only agreed to supply them now? What do the changes in the military leadership mean for Russia's campaign? And who is really dictating Russia's aims and tactics in this war?

As we relaunch our Russia-focused podcast under the Carnegie Politika brand, FT correspondent Polina Ivanova and economist-in-exile Sergei Guriev join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how access to both data and sources has changed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and whether people inside the Russian government itself also have a poorer understanding of the broader picture as a result of the same changes.

This podcast episode focuses on the recent upheaval in Kazakhstan and what to expect moving forward. What and who was behind the recent unrest in Kazakhstan? What was the role of Russia? What will become of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev's family, and what are the implications for other former Soviet countries? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Assel Tutumlu, an assistant professor at the Near East University, and Temur Umarov, a fellow at Carnegie Moscow Center.

What are the roots and drivers of the digital sovereignty narrative in Russian politics? Is there any Russian alternative to foreign 5G technology? How successful is Moscow's import substitution policy in telecom hardware and software? Is the specter of sanctions against 5G equipment and other civilian telecom software a real threat, or a myth spread by scaremongers? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Janis Kluge, a senior associate with the SWP research facility in Berlin, and Alena Epifanova, a research fellow at DGAP—also in Berlin—to discuss the ideas of digital sovereignty and a sovereign internet, and the challenges to those concepts.

What are the driving forces and goals behind China's nuclear build-up? Should the ongoing U.S.-Russian arms control talks take into account Chinese progress? And does China's refusal to take part in those talks render them meaningless? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program, and Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent at Kommersant to discuss China's plans for its nuclear arsenal.

Is the German regulator's suspension of the certification process for Nord Stream 2 technical, or political? Why isn't Gazprom cashing in while prices are so high, by sending additional gas to Europe? How does the Russian gas giant plan to deal with the global green energy transition? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and Sergei Kapitonov, a gas analyst at the energy center of the Skolkovo School of Management, to discuss the European gas crisis and Russia's role in it.

The pandemic has failed to bring geopolitical rivals together, but has it created new divisions, or merely amplified existing disagreements? And have any lessons been learned for dealing with other global challenges, like climate change? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Kadri Liik, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic became a new frontline in Russia's competition with the West.

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Elizaveta Fokht, a reporter with the BBC Russian Service, and Andrew Roth, Moscow correspondent for The Guardian, to discuss the outcome of the recent elections for the State Duma. Will the entrance of new parties into the Duma make life difficult for the Kremlin? Why have we seen no real protest movement this time around, despite considerable evidence of electoral fraud? Were there any new voting trends in terms of demographics? And will the pressure on civil society be dialed down now that the elections are over?

Nargis Kassenova, a senior fellow at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies' program on Central Asia, and Temur Umarov, a research consultant at Carnegie Moscow Center, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how Central Asian governments have reacted to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, what their priorities are, and whether any of them might be prepared to facilitate U.S. military operations in the region from their own territory.

How does the latest version of Russia's National Security Strategy differ from the last one, released in 2015? Does the inclusion in it of environmental issues mean that this is finally a priority for Russia? Why does the strategy fail to address the growing rivalry between China and the United States? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Anastasia Likhacheva, director of HSE's Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies.

“Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there's space there, it's going to expand.” What's Alexander Lukashenko's game plan in Belarus? Could the West have done more when protests broke out last year, and does it have any tools to impact the situation there now? Is there any alternative to Lukashenko that would be acceptable to Russia, or is any future regime now destined to be anti-Russian? Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident scholar at Carnegie Moscow Center, and Sabine Fischer, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Studies, join podcast host Alex Gabuev to discuss events in Belarus.

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Andrey Movchan, a nonresident scholar in the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Maria Shagina, a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the University of Zurich, to discuss the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. After eight years of Western sanctions, has the Russian economy suffered substantially as a result? Do the latest U.S. sanctions in fact show that Washington is ready to turn the page? How successful has Russia's import substitution been? And how far do sanctions actually play into the Kremlin's hands at home?

In the wake of the first summit of the Quad countries (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India), this episode of the podcast focuses on the grouping's scope, its cooperation with other nations, Russia's significance in the region, and whether the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing is impacting the long-established relationship between Russia and India. Featuring podcast host Alex Gabuev; Darshana Baruah, an associate fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University in Tokyo.

Is Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine as successful as the Kremlin claims? Are political considerations really preventing it from getting approval in Western countries? Why is the vaccination rate so low in Russia, and why didn't Putin get vaccinated sooner? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Henry Foy, Moscow bureau chief of the Financial Times, and Polina Ivanova, a special correspondent for Reuters in Moscow, to discuss these questions and other vaccine-related topics.

How will Russian-Japanese relations be affected by the departure of Japan's longtime prime minister, Shinzo Abe? What drove his policy of active engagement of Russia, and will that policy continue under his successor? What potential remains for cooperation? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Taisuke Abiru to discuss these issues and more.

Alex Gabuev is joined by Janka Oertel, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss changing attitudes in Europe toward China and Russia, and the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing.

What are the main risks from the current state of competition between Moscow and Washington? Is there a pragmatic agenda on which both sides are interested in cooperating? What tools can be used to safely manage this great-power competition? Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin and Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how relations could be reimagined. Trenin and Graham's joint commentary on the same topic can be found here:https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83432

How significant are the mass protests that swept Russia last Saturday and look set to be repeated this weekend? Has the Kremlin lost the battle for people's minds? And how much are these protests really about the opposition leader Alexei Navalny? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor at The Economist.

Will China be able to replace Russia as a security provider in Central Asia? What does China bring to the region that Russia has not, and what role is there for Europe and the West there? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by his Carnegie colleague Temur Umarov and Niva Yau Tsz Yan, a Eurasia Program fellow at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Has the hyping of foreign cyber influence in recent years overshadowed the need to address domestic disinformation? What would a democratic alliance on data regulation look like, and what should its core principles be? Is there a place for authoritarian countries like Russia in that alliance? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Marietje Schaake, international policy director at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center to explore these issues.