Simple, but Not Easy

We explore the growing convergence between public and private markets and what it means for today's investors. As private market strategies become more accessible, advisors and their clients are gaining new tools to diversify portfolios and pursue long-term growth. We break down what's driving this shift, the opportunities and risks involved, and how financial professionals can help investors navigate this evolving landscape.

Time is a financial advisor's most valuable asset. As industry tailwinds push the profession toward greater client-centricity—and as clients demand more from their advisors—many are recognizing the benefits of outsourcing investment management. By doing so, they can focus on what truly drives their business: being in front of clients and strengthening relationships.

Morningstar Wealth's Chief Investment Officer, Philip Straehl, and Head of Investments, Ricky Williamson share insights on the key themes shaping the investment landscape for 2025 and beyond.

While presidential elections often create tension and leave many feeling on edge, the stock market didn't share this level of apprehension. Remarkably, October was one of the least volatile months in history leading up to a presidential election. Although this might seem surprising, it's not entirely unusual. Markets frequently display greater resilience than we might expect. However, it's important to remember that volatility isn't always synonymous with selloffs or down days. As Morningstar Wealth Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Dom Pappalardo recently explained during his podcast appearance on Simple, but Not Easy, market activity post-election highlights the varied forms volatility can take. In his role, Pappalardo focuses on helping clients understand how Morningstar's research efforts translate into actionable portfolio management decisions.

Some have called this the weirdest housing market in recent history due to the unusual mix of high interest rates and declining affordability. And yet, we still have record high home prices across the 20 largest housing markets in the country. This month, we're diving into the U.S. housing market, a topic very relevant to many investors given a house is often the largest single asset one owns. In this episode, we're excited to shed light on the US housing market, what makes it challenging, what makes it unusual, and what needs to change for it to improve. We're joined by Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's Chief US Economist and Brian Bernard, Director of Equity Research specializing in the industrial sector, which includes homebuilders.

Welcome back to Simple But Not Easy. We hope you had an enjoyable summer and are ready to finish the year on a high note. In today's episode, we're excited to dive deep into the world of investing, market strategies, and the future of wealth management. We'll start by getting to know Philip Straehl, Morningstar's new Chief Investment Officer of the Americas, as he shares insights from his career journey and a wealth of knowledge on the evolving market landscape. From there, we'll explore Morningstar's mission and investment philosophy, and importantly, what sets it apart in an ever-evolving financial world. Wealth management industry trends are also on the agenda, and we'll close with some investing themes that everyone should be thinking about.

A special live episode from the Morningstar Investment Conference. Two of Morningstar Wealth's investment leaders—Matt Wacher and Ricky Williamson—joined the show to help us dig into what's already happened this year and where we may be headed. The topics covered included: • The Fed and where rates may be headed • Further discussion on fixed-income • US stocks are off to another hot start this year. Can outperformance continue? • Every business is thinking about AI. How is it impacting markets? • And how should investors be preparing for a presidential election? And as always, we address the implications on client portfolios and help consider action items.

The evolution of financial advice in a few decades time has been nothing short of revolutionary. The industry's transformation has been driven by technological advancements, regulatory changes and evolving investor preferences. Traditional methods of in-person advice have been expanded to include digital platforms, providing investors with greater accessibility and customization. And we've all observed an evolution in financial planning journeys and an increase in the number of advisors making financial planning core to their value proposition. But we still have to ask, is there room for improvement?

Much of the discussion around financial advice tends to be around asset allocation, product selection, and fund structures. These are all worthy conversations and topics we've enjoyed discussing previously on this show. But one topic that feels underexplored: how do advisors deliver financial advice to clients across generations? A retired client in their 70s needs a much different advice offering than a 40-year-old client in their prime work years. In this episode, we are diving into the fascinating intergenerational dynamics of financial advice.

The Magnificent Seven continue to capture the attention of advisors and investors, dominating U.S. equity performance over the last year. Will this trend continue throughout 2024? Will growth stocks continue to beat value? What about large versus small? And what is 2023's signal about where markets are headed this year? We're delighted to be joined by John Owens, Senior Portfolio Manager for Morningstar's Select Equity Strategies, and Paul Tait, Portfolio Specialist at Morningstar Wealth. Together, they help unpack the landscape for U.S. stocks in a digestible manner.

The topics we're discussing today align with the recent release of Morningstar Wealth's 2024 Market Outlook. A recession seemed to be the consensus view entering the year, but markets love to fool the masses, and a stock market rally followed. However, the rally was not evenly distributed. Bonds, for example, remain in a multi-year drawdown, and many investors are questioning their role in a portfolio. With this as the backdrop, what actions make sense to support clients? In today's episode, we're delighted to have Morningstar Wealth's CIO of the Americas, Marta Norton, and Chief U.S. Economist, Preston Caldwell with us to dig into the outlook, share their perspectives, and, as always, be sure to address the implications on client portfolios and any suggested actions to take

A lot has already been said about the potential of artificial intelligence, or AI, but how are people actually engaging with it? And how should investors think about their AI exposure in a portfolio? Morningstar has invested heavily in generative AI, with Morningstar Mo taking the stage at our investment conference, and in a first, we're delighted to be joined by a special guest: Mo the AI character. We'll also be joined by Adley Bowden, Head of Individual Investor and Grady Burkett, Portfolio Manager of the Hare strategy. This marks the start of a new season of Simple But Not Easy, with Nick VanDerSchie taking the mic from Jonathan Linstra, whom we thank for his fabulous insights. Together, let's turn AI speculation into real-world application.

Financial technology is going through a new wave of change, with artificial intelligence – or AI – taking the world by storm. But the wealth tech space is already incredibly complex, with literally hundreds of tech providers battling for market share across the advisor workflow. So, what does Ezra Group, a prominent WealthTech consultant, have to say about this? How can we get ahead of this change? We're delighted to be joined by Craig Iskowitz, Founder of Ezra Group. Together, we'll dig into his latest technology predictions, covering AI, integration opportunities, fractional outsourcing, and more. A key takeaway: "Meet once a year with your team and talk about your technology."

The need for great financial advice continues to grow, with a landscape we haven't witnessed in 15 years. So, what does Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, have to say about this? What might we expect from here? In this episode, we'll dig into the latest advice trends, covering the use of models, behavioral application, and evolving investors' needs. We're delighted to be joined by Liz Koehler, Managing Director and Head of Advisor Engagement from Blackrock.

The complexity of operating a successful financial advice practice continues to grow and significant challenges still exist in operating an effective practice. So, in this episode, we take a 30,000-foot view of financial advisor challenges and dig into the importance of data and regulations in overcoming these challenges. Whether it is growing or defending your practice, we share expert opinions on how to navigate it. In this episode, we are joined by Nick VanDerSchie, Head of Strategy and Execution at Morningstar Wealth, and Brian Costello, our Head of Data Aggregation Strategy and Governance.

Warren Buffet readily admits “I make many mistakes” when referencing his own investment portfolio. This begs the question, where does that leave the rest of us? We know that today's market uncertainty can surface the best and worst of our investing behaviors. For financial advisors, what are some of the behavioral pitfalls to avoid for clients? And what opportunities can you seize? We're joined by two experts to help us dig into these important questions - Michael Laughlin, Head of Portfolio Specialists, and Samantha Lamas, Senior Behavioral Researcher at Morningstar.

What are the positive client messages we can share leading into 2023? With inflation and a recession on everyone's minds, what actions make sense to support clients? The topics we're discussing today align with the recent release of Morningstar Investment Management's 2023 outlook titled “the positives of investing in this environment”. In today's episode, I'm delighted to have Marta Norton and Philip Straehl with us to dig into the outlook, share their perspective, and as always, be sure to address the implications on client portfolios and any suggested actions to be taken.

Direct indexing is becoming a key addition to financial advisors' toolkits. It provides the ability to tailor an index, like removing a stock or even industry, which can bring the fun back to investing and help with after-tax outcomes. In 2022, Morningstar launched a direct indexing offering for financial advisors and joined the ‘fun'. So, what's all the fuss about? What are the salient points you need to know? Who's it right for? And what are the thorny issues to weigh? We're joined by Sheryl Rowling, Editorial Director, and Andy Kunzweiler, Portfolio Manager for Morningstar's direct indexing proposition.

Stagflation is now on the radar for financial advisors and the investors they serve. At the same time, our latest research shows that investor sentiment is plummeting. With this in mind, we are delighted to have two of our most senior researchers who will help us unpack the news headlines, where we are joined by Philip Straehl, Morningstar's Global Head of Research for Investment Management, and Tyler Dann, our Head of Research for the Americas.

Investors can become confused in today's challenging climate, and understandably so. It can be difficult for advisors and investors of all types and sizes. In this new season of Simple but Not Easy, we welcome Jonathan Linstra as your new host, along with two of Morningstar's investment chiefs, Dan Kemp and Marta Norton, who offer straight talk to help navigate this difficult environment. They also shed light on investment lessons and what they look for. We hope you enjoy the episode, from the team at Morningstar Wealth.

Stay tuned for our 100th episode up next! We are reinvigorating the podcast going forward, seeking to equip financial advisors with ideas to remove friction and help clients achieve goals. But before we do, we'd also like to thank everyone who contributed to the first 100 episodes, delivering value for our listeners through both calm and stormy waters. To that end, in this episode we showcase the most downloaded so far, which still has special relevance today - investing amidst uncertainty. It covers inflation, interest rates, and context on how to navigate it all.

"The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect". Investing is therefore a matter of good behavior. So what behaviors give advisors and their investors an edge? What behaviors are destructive? In this episode, which recycles evergreen behavioral messages and cites specific studies, Sarah Newcomb, director of financial psychology at Morningstar, Inc., and Ryan Murphy, global head of behavioral insights, discuss all things relating to behavioral science. They cover emotions brought on by market loss, how they can affect decisions, cognitive biases to watch out for and ways investors can make better decisions using behavioral science.

Tax loss harvesting is a strategy that helps investors lower their tax bill by selling securities at a loss to offset realized capital gains. The benefit to investors of systematically realizing, or "harvesting," losses can be significant over time, but why is it important, and how can you implement this strategy for your investors? Philip Straehl, Global Head of Research, and Andy Kunzweiler, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Direct Indexing, discuss their new research on tax alpha in direct indexing, and the advances in risk management and portfolio optimization tools enables systematic tax-loss harvesting while tracking an index.

Getting personal might elicit nervousness, but why does it seem so antithetical to investing? We explore personalization and customization in financial practices: if you're an investor, how well does your financial advisor know you? And advisors, how much time have you taken to get to know your clients? The conversation, which features Matthew Radgowski and Marta Norton as well as Head of Decision Sciences Ryan Murphy, explores Morningstar's belief that getting personal can be good for investors AND advisors—but it may be more complicated than you think.

Good decisions are often built on good forecasts. But forecasting is hard, in part because it requires us to be aware of both what we know and what we don't—or even can't—know. Morningstar Investment Management Global Chief Investment Officer Dan Kemp and Global Head of Decision Sciences Ryan Murphy discuss what good forecasting looks like.

We present our thoughts on the recent Berkshire Hathaway conclave. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger discussed their firm's ups and downs and weighed in on such topics as their latest investment activity, inflation, cryptocurrency, and what makes their company unique. And we feature the views of Head of U.S. Equity Strategies Michael Corty and Senior Portfolio Manager John Owens, who bring years of experience to the table when giving their points of view on what Buffett and Munger had to say.

We've got the same thing on our mind as the rest of the market—uncertainty. What's going to happen? Why? When? And what should we do about it? Well, in this episode, taken from a recently recorded webinar, we do our best to address those concerns. We also hope to allay some of the associated fears. To do so, we'll hear from Tyler Dann, our Head of Research in the Americas; Ricky Williamson, a Portfolio Manager and our Head of U.S. Outcome-Based Strategies; and Paul Arnold, Co-Head of Asset Allocation Strategies.

Terry Hawkins, sales manager at Morningstar Investment Management and Paul Kaplan, research director for Morningstar Canada, discuss dollar-cost averaging, or the practice of investing slowly over time instead of in one lump sum. Research by Kaplan and others show that dollar-cost averaging might be expected to underperform a lump-sum approach. But what if it's what gets an investor into the markets?

In this episode, John Owens and Ryan Murphy talk about why price-weighted indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be distracting to investors. John, who's a senior equity portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, explains why investors should disregard single-day Dow point drops, and also any short-term performance. Ryan, who's head of decision science at Morningstar Investment Management, shares some recent research that shows someone's risk perspective can be affected by what they pay attention to. Together, our guests discuss how discipline and nudges can help investors ignore the noise and stay focused on their financial goals.

Direct indexing. No longer an exclusive tool of the big-account investor, it's rapidly working its way down the food chain. Now those with more modest sums to invest are able to employ it, too. But just because you can, does that mean you should? And if you're an advisor, should you offer it and recommend it to your clients? Our panel covers topics such as the ways that personalization at scale can help advisors grow their business, how direct indexing can help with optimizing after-tax returns, and how advisors can use personalization to help match client ESG preferences with investments, creating stickier relationships along the way.

In this rebroadcast of an episode from 2021, Paul Arnold and Dan Kemp discuss how advisors can better understand why ESG is important to a client—whether it's the expression of one's values or something else. We also look at how advisors might think about matching each client with a portfolio that addresses their unique ESG preferences and needs.

“The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear,” author H.P. Lovecraft once wrote. “And the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown.” Fear of the unknown is no stranger to the investment world these days. We're living in scary times. And the investors who aren't feeling jumpy right now tend to fall into one of two categories: those who have a plan—and those who haven't a clue. Let's talk about how to manage your fear of the unknown when it comes to inflation and rising rates—and why doing so can help you avoid making the wrong moves at the wrong time.

In this rebroadcast of an episode from 2020, we explore why advisors might change the focus of annual meetings to progress updates with Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management. And Daniel Needham, president, shares his thoughts on how to keep investors focused on the long term.

Short-term worries versus long-term goals—which are guiding your investment decisions? If you've done your homework and you've given careful consideration to achieving the financial results you want, that question is easier to answer—even if it remains nerve-wracking to stay the course. Here in early 2022, we're awash in short-term concerns once again. Between inflation, rising interest rates, and more, it's easy to question the faith you had when the outlook was brighter. So, with that in mind for this episode, we're focusing on how to keep your worries at bay and your eye on the ball.

"[W]e can't avoid the reality that we're experiencing and probably will continue to experience stress, uncertainty, and change. But the question is, how do we cope?" — Sarah Newcomb Given recent market volatility, we thought it might be helpful to revisit this episode from July 13, 2020, which features two experts on investor behavior and decision-making. Sarah Newcomb, director of behavioral science at Morningstar, Inc., discusses emotions brought on by market loss, talks about how they can affect decisions, and offers some ways to cope. Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management, discusses cognitive biases to watch out for and ways investors can make better decisions.

Rising Interest Rates. New COVID-19 variants. Inflationary pressures. Those and other factors are on the minds of investors as we head into 2022. Will the new year be one of prosperity, or is it time to fortify your defenses? The truth is that it's nearly impossible to know. And that's why we at Morningstar follow a mantra of, ”Don't predict—prepare.” In this episode, we ring in 2022 with our take on how to best prepare for what's to come, no matter how handy you may or may not be with a crystal ball. In fact, we note that if you address the future properly, you don't need to play soothsayer at all. It's not about prognostication. It's about preparation. And at the end of the hour, we hope you'll have a clearer idea of how to be better prepared.

Environmental, social, and governance. More commonly called ESG, it used to be seen in many parts of the investment world as a niche specialty that was mostly about virtue—something that was nice to do. But now there's been no question that it's something we need to do, particularly coming out of Glasgow's United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26. Nearly 500 financial-services firms from around the world agreed to align $130 trillion with the goals specified by the Paris Agreement, with the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In this special short episode, we hear from Global Chief Investment Officer Dan Kemp on the ramifications of COP26 and the outlook for ESG for investment advisors and their clients in the coming year.

Inflation. It's showing up in headlines and in conversations between everyone from political pundits to investment professionals and clients. It's no different for us here at Morningstar, and most of what we're hearing boils down to two key questions: what are our views on inflation, moving forward, and what are we doing to prepare for the potential threat of a continuing rise? In this episode, the conversation revolves around what's driving inflation in the short and long term, ways we can try to protect investors from it, and how our Real Return portfolio series aims to provide returns that beat inflation.

Conviction. The term derives from the Latin verb convincere, which means “to argue.” And that's the basis for Morningstar Investment Management's quarterly global convictions: to present an argument that helps an investor achieve their goals. Or perhaps more directly, what are our high-conviction ideas to fuel investor success? We'll cover a lot of ground in this episode, including recent market performance and trends, what those developments mean in terms of reward versus risk, inflation concerns, economic-recovery, and more.

An economic recovery is cause for celebration, but how, exactly, do we capitalize on it? Since it began in 2020, the decline that COVID brought us has been called the deepest and shortest economic crisis in history, and the nature of the forced shutdown followed by the subsequent reopening is an indication of just how unique this recovery has been. In this episode, we examine the recovery's progress as it stands now. We also touch on where some of the risks may lie and how our portfolios are positioned to best take advantage of the recovery as it marches on.

China is a key talking point in the investment community today, as a regulatory crackdown has spooked markets. Chinese regulators have targeted specific sectors such as technology, education and real estate as part of a crackdown aimed at aligning the Chinese private sectors with its long-term policy agenda. In today's episode, we will take a closer look at recent events in China and discuss both risks and potential opportunities in Chinese stocks today.

Changes in the corporate tax rate can have large, one-time effects on a company's financial statements. Michael Budzinski, Senior Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager, shares recent Morningstar Investment Management LLC research around corporate tax rate changes. 

ESG investing, which focusses on an investment's environmental, social, and governance impact or risk, has grown immensely in recent years, attracting significant inflows. But what happens to ESG investing during a market downturn? Are ESG considerations left by the wayside as investors focus on financial market risks? Ryan Murphy, Head of Decision Sciences for Morningstar Investment Management, discusses his research on the behavioral sustainability stress test.

With stocks reaching new highs and companies borrowing at historically low rates, broad markets offer limited upside. So how should investors position their portfolios in face of that?

As more of the US reopens and people begin to return to their normal routines we've seen a disconnect between supply and demand, and many are worried that price increases are here to stay. Alfonzo Bruno, associate portfolio manager, shares insights around the current state of inflation, how to interpret updated guidance from the Fed, and how he anticipates inflation pressures around supply chains to ease in a post-pandemic market.

Other than the strong recovery this year, the energy sector has been avoided by many investors. Whether environmental concerns of an increasing number of ESG-focused investors or worries about the secular decline in oil revenues as the world transitions to renewal energy sources, energy stocks have been among the least popular investments out there. Philip Straehl, global head of research at Morningstar Investment Management, welcomes James Foot, Head of Research, Asia Pacific from Morningstar Investment Management Australia, to dive deep into why they think certain energy stocks may offer attractive long-term returns.

Our Select Equity portfolio managers share five key takeaways from the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. Portfolio specialist Jeff Wagner sits down with Mike Corty, Morningstar Investment Management's Head of our Select Equity Portfolios team and the portfolio manager of our Tortoise portfolio, as well as senior portfolio manager John Owens, who manages Select Equity portfolios, All-Cap Equity and Small/Mid-Cap Equity.

After the late-2020 rally continued into 2021, Philip Straehl and Edward Fane assess the aggregate reward-for-risk picture in world markets and share their views on select asset class opportunities. Philip is the Chicago-based global head of research at Morningstar Investment Management LLC. Ed, based in London, is head of research for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, Ltd., which is an FCA-regulated firm.

Slides for this episode are available here, or by emailing us at simple@morningstar.com.