Podcasts about chief us economist

Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist with UBS Investment Bank, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the state of the US economy. We also touch on the evolution and impacts of US trade policy, along with the potential road ahead for monetary policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy - Recorded on 05.06.2025

Asian shares gained in a cautious start to the week as investors await progress in US trade negotiations with the region and signs of further stimulus from China. The dollar was steady against major peers and US equity-index futures edged lower in early trading Monday. Contracts in Japan signal a gain when cash markets reopen after the yen weakened on Friday, while those in Australia and Hong Kong were little changed. We talk FX and currencies with Peter McGuire, CEO at Trading.com Australia. Plus - US stocks notched their longest advance in three months on Friday, while bonds and the dollar climbed amid increasing expectations the Federal Reserve could ease policy again in the first half of this year as the US economy softens. Worries about the economic fallout from tariffs drove US consumer sentiment to one of its lowest readings on record while long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991. Investors will focus on key economic data this week - including the US jobs report and gross domestic product data - to see if the the recent steadiness in markets will continue as tariff tensions tamp down. We preview the week's eco data with Lawrence Werther, Chief US Economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Olu Sonola, Chief US Economist, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary and Research, delve into Fitch's latest US Cross-Sector Housing Monitor, discussing the US housing outlook and risks from tariffs, labor costs and lower sentiment.

Anna Wong is the Chief US Economist at Bloomberg and previously worked at the Federal Reserve, White House Council of Economic Advisors, and US Treasury Department. I can imagine few people in the world better suited to analyze and forecast the impact of the tariffs. — For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast. Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.  Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.  About Fundrise  With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.  Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund's offering document(s).  Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

Gary and Shannon breakdown President Trump's controversial tariff strategy with expert insights from Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. We'll unpack the potential economic impacts, explore how these tariffs could reshape American manufacturing, and examine the short and long-term consequences for consumers and businesses. From auto industry disruptions to global market reactions, this episode provides a comprehensive look at a pivotal moment in US economic policy. Buckle up for a riveting discussion that breaks down complex economic trends into digestible insights!

Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist at Deutsche Bank shares his views

With the new Trump administration moving quickly in its early days, Pam Finelli, COO and Head of Fixed Income Research, Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist discuss the most important actions impacting markets and the global economy.

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast, host Stewart Foley sits down with Blerina Uruci, Chief US Economist in the Fixed Income Division of T. Rowe Price, for an in-depth conversation on the critical macroeconomic trends shaping the investment landscape. From the impact of US elections to the Fed's rate policy and the rising influence of productivity growth, Blerina offers expert perspectives on how these developments could influence investor sentiment and economic performance.   With a unique global perspective, Blerina shares her take on trade policies, fiscal uncertainties, and the evolving role of inflation in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Don't miss this engaging conversation packed with actionable insights for navigating the complexities of today's economy.

Dec 12, 2024 – Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, provides an optimistic outlook for the US economy heading into 2025. He highlights strong momentum supported by easing bank lending standards, wage growth outpacing...

Labeling the economy is a common practice when talking about the broad economic landscape. However, there are many ways to describe it. It can be recessing, expanding, and more. Preston Caldwell, Chief US Economist at Morningstar joins Cassidy Clement to discuss. They cover these prevalent labels and provide examples of them throughout history.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report. Speakers: Michael Feroli Samantha Azzarello This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Some have called this the weirdest housing market in recent history due to the unusual mix of high interest rates and declining affordability. And yet, we still have record high home prices across the 20 largest housing markets in the country. This month, we're diving into the U.S. housing market, a topic very relevant to many investors given a house is often the largest single asset one owns. In this episode, we're excited to shed light on the US housing market, what makes it challenging, what makes it unusual, and what needs to change for it to improve. We're joined by Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's Chief US Economist and Brian Bernard, Director of Equity Research specializing in the industrial sector, which includes homebuilders.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the Sept jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on September 6, 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Aug 27, 2024 – Is the US facing a wave of layoffs? Today, FS Insider speaks with Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, one of the most accurate high frequency economic forecasters of the US economy according...

Stocks slid into the close as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow; Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist David Mericle breaks down what's at stake. BofA's Savita Subramanian on top ideas. Plus, earnings from CAVA, Intuit, Ross Stores, Workday. 

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the July jobs report.   Speakers: Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy     This podcast was recorded on 8.2.24. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Halfway through a historic year for elections around the world, Morgan Stanley's chief economists assess the impact of recent results on the global economy, and weigh potential effects from key elections to come.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, and welcome back to the second part of a special two-part episode of the podcast. We've been covering Morgan Stanley's global economic outlook as we look into the third quarter of 2024. In the first part, we covered the twin themes of inflation in central banks. In this part, we're going to look at elections, with my colleagues Ellen Zentner, our Chief US Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and Chetan Ahya, who is our Chief Asia Economist.It's Monday, June 24th at 10 am in New York.It is astounding if we look around the world just how many elections there have already been this year and how many more there are going to be. We will get to the US, but before we do, Chetan, in Asia, India is one of the most important economies; and in India they recently had elections. Can you just let our listeners know basically what happened and what do you think are the implications for that election for the Indian economy?Chetan Ahya: Yeah Seth. So Definitely there was a big change in India in terms of the political outcome. So the ruling party did not get the full majority and they have had to form a government under a coalition structure. There is a question though, as a result of that, whether the policy shift will happen in India and the government will go back to redistribution instead of focusing on boosting investment and jobs. Well, we think that, you know, there is no change. There is policy continuity. We think that this government is very much aligned in thinking that they want to keep inflation in check and current account deficit in check, i.e. macro stability should be in control. And they still believe that job creation is the way to ensure that the general masses and the bottom 20 per cent see the benefit and then vote for them back again.So, for us, we are not changing our view that this is India's decade. We are still maintaining our growth forecast that India will be achieving 6.5 per cent until 2030, and at the same time as India continues to build this growth rates on a high base, India will be at $8 trillion by 2032. Back to you, Seth.Seth Carpenter: Thanks, Chetan. super interesting. And EM elections have had a lot of surprises. We had South Africa. We had a surprise -- in terms of the margin in the opposite direction of what you said for India -- when it comes to the case of Mexico, where Scheinbaum won, but the majority was even bigger than I think most people were expected.But there are other elections that had some big surprises. Jens, let me come to you. In Europe, we had the European elections, and there were some big surprises there, to say the very least. First, can you just walk us through, what do the European level elections mean, in terms of our outlook? And then, part of the fallout from those surprises was that President Macron in France called for snap elections. What do you think we need to take away from that fact?Jens Eisenschmidt: We have had a look at the manifestos, what is known so far from those that are competing for government in France, say, and I think one of our key takeaways is that might be more fiscal spending. And of course, short run this might get you more growth. But of course, the question is always, what's the price for us to pay? There might be higher interest rates and that in the longer term may be detrimental. So, I think overall we have to wait until we see really and observe the full election outcome.Now, more generally, we had the European elections and we get a lot of questions by clients -- what the implications are here. Now, if you, sort of just look again from very high up, far away, then we see that the coalition that has last time, voted and elected, Ursula von der Leyen, the currently sitting, President of the European Commission. That coalition still stands or commands a majority in the European Parliament post the elections. Just that that majority, of course, is a little bit smaller than before.It's very likely that von der Leyen will have to reach out to either the Greens that were not in the past part of her coalition, voting for her; or the bloc around the Italian Prime Minister Meloni. The implication of it is that we have to see which side the reach out is for – for the consequences for the commission priorities. But I would say from today's perspective, and again giving that there is some logic of averaging here, it's very unlikely to be dramatic changes that we are going to see at the European level.Seth Carpenter: Staying on, on your side of the Atlantic, of course the UK is going to have elections as well. And notably on July 4th, the anniversary of the US independence from Great Britain. I love that timing. What's the story with the UK elections and are they going to change at all, your team's outlook for what goes on in the UK?Jens Eisenschmidt: So on current polls, they were remarkably stable. There seems to be a change in government in the making, say. The Tories, the Conservative Party in the UK, it's very likely to have to give away power to a new labor government. That's essentially what polls currently suggest.Now, we've had a look at both manifestos, and there are differences here and there. Typically, you would think, there's a bit more fiscal spending coming out of one government and the other. But, you know, if you really sort of compare notes and if you also see the constraints that both contenders -- conservative or labor -- would have to work with, it's hard to see a material difference, at least for the growth outlook, from their policies.Again, it's early days. We will have to see what exactly then will be implemented after July 4th. But from today's perspective, it's hardly a game changer.Seth Carpenter: Okay, great, thanks. I want to bring it back to this side of the Atlantic, back to the United States. Ellen, Morgan Stanley Research put out a big piece last week about the US election scenarios. Can you just run us through the key points there, because I will say, everyone around the world looks at the US election and has to take some notice.Ellen Zentner: Ah yes. I love elections. I thought you'd never ask. So, in the US it's not just about Biden versus Trump. The outcome for the Congress matters critically for fiscal outcomes as well. So, broadly for deficits, we see a rank ordering of a Republican sweep leading to the biggest deficit expansion. Then a smaller deficit with a split government because there will not be unity to get things done. And then the smallest deficit comes with a Dem sweep because we do think that tax increases could be meaningful.Seth Carpenter: Okay, whoa. Let me stop you there because it sounds like if we've got this rank ordering of how much the deficit expands, can we just take that and then translate it into a forecast for economic growth? So bigger deficit, more fiscal boost; smaller deficit, less fiscal boost; smallest deficit, sort of weakest growth. Is that the way we should think about this fiscal plan translates into projections of growth?Ellen Zentner: Okay, I wish it were that easy and I know you're asking that because it would definitely poke me a bit. So, there are other policies that are going to matter. So tariffs, for example, and they're likely to differ substantially. So, you know, former President Trump has talked about 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports and 10 per cent tariffs broadly on global imports. And there are specifics that are hard to forecast now. Some of the broader plans might require congressional action; but what we learned from 2018 is that there is some inflationary impulse. But you can have a meaningful adverse hit to the economy from tariffs, and then that tends to have a pull on inflation thereafter. So, you can't just take the fiscal deficit, as a direction for growth.And as I noted earlier, immigration has been a key part of the macro story in the US for the past year. I promised I would come back to that. You know, you've got, wildly different scenarios for immigration, depending on the congressional makeup and depending on who's president, as well. So, if I just take you to the most extreme example. So if you could see, immigration scenario under former president Trump, where he's talked about shutting down the border, and also deporting unauthorized immigrants that are already here. You know, you could damage the potential growth rate of the economy that would be slower.To put it into numbers, the extreme version we published would result in a break even for non-farm payrolls going to 45, 000 from our current estimate of around 250, 000. So that would be a big shift. And I think immigration, rather than just the size of the deficit, is probably going to be one of the bigger things to watch out of the election.Seth Carpenter: So as the saying goes, elections have consequences, not just in the United States, but around the world.All right. Ellen, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to our listeners, thank you for listening.If you enjoy the show, please leave a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley's chief economists examine the varied responses of global central banks to noisy inflation data in their quarterly roundtable discussion.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's global chief economist. We have a special two-part episode of the podcast where we'll cover Morgan Stanley's global economic outlook as we look into the third quarter of 2024.It's Friday, June 21st at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong.Seth Carpenter: Alright, so a lot's happened since our last economics roundtable on this podcast back in March and since we published our mid-year outlook in May. My travels have taken me to many corners of the globe, including Tokyo, Sao Paulo, Sydney, Washington D. C., Chicago.Two themes have dominated every one of my meetings. Inflation in central banks on the one hand, and then on the other hand, elections.In the first part of this special episode, I wanted to discuss these key topics with the leaders of Morgan Stanley Economics in key regions. Ellen Zentner is our Chief US Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt is our Chief Europe Economist, and Chetan Ahya is our Chief Asia Economist.Ellen, I'm going to start with you. You've also been traveling. You were in London recently, for example. In your conversations with folks, what are you explaining to people? Where do things stand now for the Fed and inflation in the US?Ellen Zentner: Thanks, Seth. So, we told people that the inflation boost that we saw in the first quarter was really noise, not signal, and it would be temporary; and certainly, the past three months of data have supported that view. But the Fed got spooked by that re-acceleration in inflation, and it was quite volatile. And so, they did shift their dot plot from a median of three cuts to a median of just one cut this year. Now, we're not moved by the dot plot. And Chair Powell told everyone to take the projections with a grain of salt. And we still see three cuts starting in September.Jens Eisenschmidt: If you don't mind me jumping in here, on this side of the Atlantic, inflation has also been noisy and the key driver behind repricing in rate expectations. The ECB delivered its cut in June as expected, but it didn't commit to much more than that. And we had, in fact, anticipated that cautious outcome simply because we have seen surprises to the upside in the April, and in particular in the May numbers. And here, again, the upside surprise was all in services inflation.If you look at inflation and compare between the US experience and euro area experience, what stands out at that on both sides of the Atlantic, services inflation appears to be the sticky part. So, the upside surprises in May in particular probably have left the feeling in the governing council that the process -- by which they got more and more confidence in their ability to forecast inflation developments and hence put more weight on their forecast and on their medium-term projections – that confidence and that ability has suffered a slight setback. Which means there is more focus now for the next month on current inflation and how it basically compares to their forecast.So, by implication, we think upside surprises or continued upside surprises relative to the ECB's path, which coincides in the short term with our path, will be a problem; will mean that the September rate cut is put into question.For now, our baseline is a cut in September and another one in December. So, two more this year. And another four next year.Seth Carpenter: Okay, I get it. So, from my perspective, then, listening to you, Jens, listening to Ellen, we're in similar areas; the timing of it a little bit different with the upside surprise to inflation, but downward trend in inflation in both places. ECB already cutting once. Fed set to start cutting in September, so it feels similar.Chetan, the Bank of Japan is going in exactly the opposite direction. So, our view on the reflation in Japan, from my conversations with clients, is now becoming more or less consensus. Can you just walk us through where things stand? What do you expect coming out of Japan for the rest of this year?Chetan Ahya: Thanks, Seth. So, Japan's reflation story is very much on track. We think a generational shift from low-flation to new equilibrium of sustainable moderate inflation is taking hold. And we see two key factors sustaining this story going forward. First is, we expect Japan's policymakers to continue to keep macro policies accommodative. And second, we think a virtuous cycle of higher prices and wages is underway.The strong spring wage negotiation results this year will mean wage growth will rise to 3 percent by third quarter and crucially the pass through of wages to prices is now much stronger than in the past -- and will keep inflation sustainably higher at 1.5 to 2 per cent. This is why we expect BOJ to hike by 15 basis points in July and then again in January of next year by 25 basis points, bringing policy rates to 0.5 per cent.We don't expect further rate hikes beyond that, as we don't see inflation overshooting the 2 percent target sustainably. We think Governor Ueda would want to keep monetary policy accommodative in order for reflation to become embedded. The main risk to our outlook is if inflation surprises to the downside. This could materialize if the wage to price pass through turns out to be weaker than our estimates.Seth Carpenter: All of that was a great place to start. Inflation, central banking, like I said before, literally every single meeting I've had with clients has had a start there. Equity clients want to know if interest rates are coming down. Rates clients want to know where interest rates are going and what's going on with inflation.But we can't forget about the overall economy: economic activity, economic growth. I will say, as a house, collectively for the whole globe, we've got a pretty benign outlook on growth, with global growth running about the same pace this year as last year. But that top level view masks some heterogeneity across the globe.And Chetan I'm going to come right back to you, staying with topics in Asia. Because as far as I can remember, every conversation about global economic activity has to have China as part of it. China's been a key part of the global story. What's our current thinking there in China? What's going on this year and into next year?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, in China, cyclically improving exports trend has helped to stabilize growth, but the structural challenges are still persisting. The biggest structural challenge that China faces is deflation. The key source of deflationary pressure is the housing sector. While there is policy action being taken to address this issue, we are of the view that housing will still be a drag on aggregate demand. To contextualize, the inventory of new homes is around 20 million units, as compared to the sales of about 7 to 8 million units annually. Moreover, there is another 23 million units of existing home inventory.So, we think it would take multiple years for this huge inventory overhang tobe digested to a more reasonable level. And as downturn in the property sector is resulting in downward pressures on aggregate demand, policy makers are supporting growth by boosting supply.Consider the shifts in flow of credit. Over the past few years, new loans to property sector have declined by about $700 billion, but this has been more than offset by a rise of about $500 billion in new loans for industrial sector, i.e. manufacturing investment, and $200 billion loans for infrastructure. This supply -centric policy response has led to a buildup of excess capacities in a number of key manufacturing sectors, and that is keeping deflationary pressures alive for longer. Indeed, we continue to see the diversions of real GDP growth and normal GDP growth outcomes. While real GDP growth will stabilize at 4.8 per cent this year, normal GDP growth will still be somewhat subdued at 4.5 per cent.Seth Carpenter: Thanks, Chetan. That's super helpful.Jens, let's think about the euro area, where there had, been a lot of slower growth relative to the US. I will say, when I'm in Europe, I get that question, why is the US outperforming Europe? You know, I think, my read on it, and you should tell me if I'm right or not -- recent data suggests that things, in terms of growth at least have bottomed out in Europe and might be starting to look up. So, what are you thinking about the outlook for European growth for the rest of the year? Should we expect just a real bounce back in Europe or what's it going to look like?Jens Eisenschmidt: Indeed, growth has bottomed. In fact, we are emerging from a period of stagnation last year; and as expected in our NTIA Outlook in November we had outlined the script -- that based on a recovery in consumption, which in turn is based on real wage gains. And fading restrictiveness of monetary policy, we would get a growth rebound this year. And the signs are there that we are exactly getting this, as expected.So, we had a very strong first quarter, which actually led us to upgrade still our growth that we had before at 0.5 to 0.7. And we have the PMIs, the survey indicators indicating indeed that the growth rebound is set to continue. And we have also upgraded the growth outlook for 2025 from 1 to 1.2 per cent here on the back of stronger external demand assumptions. So, all in all, the picture looks pretty consistent with that rebound.At the same time, one word of caution is that it won't get very fast. We will see growth very likely peaking below the levels that were previous peaks simply because potential growth is lower; we think is lower than it has been before the pandemic. So just as a measure, we think, for instance, that potential growth in Europe could be here lie between one, maybe one, 1 per cent, whereas before it would be rather 1.5 per cent.Seth Carpenter: Okay, that makes a lot of sense. So, some acceleration, maybe not booming, maybe not catching the US, but getting a little bit of convergence. So, Ellen, bring it back to the US for us. What are you thinking about growth for the US? Are we going to slump and slow down and start to look like Europe? Are things going to take off from here?Things have been pretty good. What do you think is going to happen for the rest of this year and into next year?Ellen Zentner: Yes, I think for the year overall, you know, growth is still going to be solid in the US, but it has been slowing compared with last year. And if I put a ‘the big picture view' around it, you've got a fiscal impulse, where it's fading, right? So, we had big fiscal stimulus around COVID, which continues to fade. You had big infrastructure packages around the CHIPS Act and the IRA, where the bulk of that spending has been absorbed. And so that fiscal impulse is fading. But you've still got the monetary policy drag, which continues to build.Now, within that, the immigration story is a very big offset. What does it mean, you know, for the mid-year outlook? We had upgraded growth for this year and next quite meaningfully. And we completely changed how we were thinking about sort of the normal run rate of job growth that would keep the unemployment rate steady.So, whereas just six months ago, we thought it was around 100,000 to 120,000 a month, now we think that we can grow the labor market at about 250,000 a month, without being inflationary. And so that allows for that bigger but not tighter economy, which has been a big theme of ours since the mid-year outlook.And so, I'm throwing in the importance of immigration in here because I know you want to talk about elections later on. So, I want to flag that as not just a positive for the economy, but a risk to the outlook as well.Now, finally, key upcoming data is going to inform our view for this year. So, I'm looking for: Do households slow their spending because labor income growth is slowing? Does inflation continue to come down? And do job gains hold up?Seth Carpenter: Alright, thanks Ellen. That helps a lot, and it puts things into perspective. And you're right, I do want to move on to elections, but that will be for the second part of this special episode. Catch that in your podcast feeds on Monday.For now, thank you for listening. And if you enjoy the podcast, please leave a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts On the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the May jobs report.     This podcast was recorded on June 7, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4721112-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Despite signs of an economic slowdown, nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 in May, far surpassing expectations. In this episode, Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy, and Mike Feroli, Chief US Economist, discuss insights from the May US employment report, future economic trends, the Fed's actions, and the impact of immigration policies on the economy. Tune in for expert analysis and forecasts. This episode was recorded on June 7, 2024.​ This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read JP Morgan research reports related to it's contents for more information including important disclosures. Copyright 2024 JP Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Why is the US economy poised for a strong second half of the year, despite slowing GDP growth? Our Chief US Economist points to population growth, housing demand and anticipated Fed rate cuts. ----- Transcript -----Ellen Zentner: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Economist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss our mid-year outlook for the US economy. As we near the midpoint of this year, we refresh our outlook for the second half of the year. In our base case, the US economy remains strong, but US GDP growth is slowing, and slowing from 3.1 percent on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis last year, to 2.1 percent this year and in 2025.Okay, so what's behind the continued strength? Well, it's something we've been intensely following this year. Faster immigration and population growth will continue to expand the labor supply and support economic activity, and all without increasing inflationary pressures. So, whereas the mid-pandemic labor market was characterized by persistent shortage of labor, the supply of labor is now increasing, and we think will outstrip demand this year.This will drive the unemployment rate higher, which we expect will end this year half a point above 2023 at 4.2 per cent and rise further to 4.5 per cent in 2025. And wage gains should moderate further as the unemployment rate rises. We think consumer activity will continue to slow this year and into 2025 as that cooling labor market weighs on growth in real disposable income and elevated interest rates keep borrowing costs high.Tight lending standards also limit credit availability. That said, we do think lower rates are on the horizon, and this should spur a pickup in housing demand and goods spending around the middle of next year. In fact, after substantial reflation numbers in the first quarter of 2024, we expect lower inflation numbers ahead. We've already seen that in the April data, as rents, goods, and services prices decelerate. The Fed has held the policy rate steady at a range of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent since July 2023, and we expect it will deliver the first quarter point cut in September this year. In total, we expect three quarter point cuts this year, and four more by the middle of next year, which lowers the policy rate to around 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter this year to about 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. But even before rate cuts, the Fed has announced it will start phasing out Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in June. We expect QT to end around March 2025, when the Fed's balance sheet is a little above 3 trillion.Finally, let's talk about housing. We expect continued growth in residential investment through 2025, with a rapid rise in housing starts, solid new home sales, and a bit more turnover in existing home sales as mortgage rates fall. Home building and increased brokerage commissions should keep residential investment on the boil, posting a 4.6 per cent rise on a 4th quarter over 4th quarter basis this year and 3.2 per cent in 2025. Our residential investment forecasts are a good deal stronger than we expected in the year ahead outlook we published last November. Booming first quarter growth probably reflected a combination of the warm winter and the temporary downswing in mortgage rates. We don't expect the same outperformance later in the year. But at the same time, housing demand is greater than we had anticipated amid that faster population growth. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

May 9, 2024 – FS Insider speaks with Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, about the outlook for slowing economic growth, inflation, the exhaustion of pandemic era savings by US consumers, the "true" rate of inflation and...

Speakers: Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2024Featuring: Jonathan Pingle, UBS Securities Chief Economist, talks about the Fed, Jay Powell, and where we stand with rate cuts after Powell's presser yesterday Steve Englander, Global head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, on the Fed reducing its hiking tail risk Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist at JPMorgan, reacts to Jay Powell and discusses the outlook for a US recession Bloomberg's John Tucker with his Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceZ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New data on both immigration and inflation defied predictions and may have shifted the Fed's perspective. Our Chief U.S. Economist and Head of U.S. Rates Strategy share their updated outlooks. ----- Transcript -----Ellen Zentner: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Economist.Guneet Dhingra: And I'm Guneet Dhingra, Head of US Rates Strategy.Ellen Zentner: And today on the podcast, we'll be discussing some significant changes to our US economic outlook and US rates outlook for the rest of this year.It's Tuesday, April 23rd at 10am in New York.Guneet Dhingra: So, Ellen, last week you put out an updated view on your outlook -- with some substantial forecast changes. Can you give us the headlines on GDP, inflation and the Fed forecast path? And what has really changed versus your last update?Ellen Zentner: Sure Guneet. So, our last economic outlook update was in November last year. And since that time, really, the impetus for all of these changes came from immigration. So, we got new immigration data from the CBO, and just to give you a sense of the magnitude of upward revision, we thought we had an increase of 800,000 in 2023. It turns out it was 3.3 million. And so far, the flows of immigrants suggest that we're going to get about as many as last year, if not a little bit more. And so, what does that mean? Faster population growth, those are more mouths to feed. You've got a faster labor force growth. They can work. They are working. And data historically shows that their labor force participation rates are higher than native born Americans.So, you've got to take all this into account. And it means that you've got this big positive supply side shock. And so, when the labor market has been about balance now between demand and supply, as Chair Powell's been noting, you're now going to have supply outrun demand this year.And so, you basically got much more labor market slack. You've got -- and I'm going to steal Chair Powell's words here -- you've got a bigger economy, but not a tighter economy. So, it's faster GDP growth. We have taken out one Fed cut, and I know we're going to talk about that because inflation has surprised the upside recently. But you've got slower wage growth. More labor market slack. And so, we did not change our overall inflation numbers on the back of this better growth and better labor force growth.Guneet Dhingra: That's very helpful. That's a very interesting read in the economy, Ellen. Do you think the Fed is reading the supply side story the same way as you are? And said differently, is the Fed on the same page as you? And if not, when do you think they could be?Ellen Zentner: Yeah. So, you know, Chair Powell, if you go back to his speeches and the minutes from the Fed. They've been talking about immigration. I think we've known for a while that the numbers were bigger than previously thought. But how you interpret that into an outlook can be different. And it takes some time. It even took us some time -- about a month -- to finally digest all the numbers and figure out exactly what it meant for our outlook. So, here's the biggest, I think, change for them in terms of what it means. The break-even level for payrolls is just that much higher.Now what does break even mean? It means it's the pace of job gains you need to generate each month in order to just keep the unemployment rate steady. And six months ago, we all thought it was 100, 000, including the Chair. And now we think it's 265,000. That is eye popping. And it means that when you see these big labor market numbers -- 250, 000; 300,000. That's normal. And that's not a labor market that's too tight.And so, I think the easiest thing the Fed, has realized is that they don't need to worry about the labor market. There's a lot more slack there. There's going to be a lot more slack there this year. Wage growth has come down because of it. ECI, or Employment Cost Index, is going to come down for this year. The unemployment rate is going to be higher. They do still need to reflect that in their forecast. And that means that we could show, sort of, this flavor of bigger but not tighter economy when we get their forecast updates in June.Guneet Dhingra: I think the medium-term thesis is very compelling, Ellen, but how do you fit the three back-to-back upside surprises in CPI here? How does that fit with the labor supply story?Ellen Zentner: So, that is sort of disconnected from the bigger but not tighter economy, because we did have to take into account that inflation has surprised to the upside. I mean, these have been some real volatile prints in the last three months, and we're now tracking March core PCE at 0.25 per cent and we're going to get that number later this week. And so that's above the threshold that we think the Fed needs in order to gain confidence that that pace of deceleration we saw late last year, is not in danger of slowing down for them to gain further confidence.Ellen Zentner: And so, the way I would characterizes this is that it's a bigger but not tighter economy. But we also had to take into account these inflation upside surprises, which is really what led us to push the June cut off to July.So, after we get that March, core PCE print, let's see what that data holds, but we think a few prints around 0.2 per cent are needed to satisfy Chair Powell, and gain that consensus to cut. So, I want to stress to the listeners that, you know, our conviction that inflation will head toward target remains high.And it was also helped last week by fresh data on new tenant rents. So that is a leading indicator for rental inflation in our models. And it's slowed again. And suggests an even faster pace of deceleration ahead.But here's where I think it matters for the Fed. Whereas before, they were very convicted that this rental inflation story was going to play out, that rent inflation was going to come down. They used similar models to us. But because of the inflation data being so volatile over the past three months, rather than providing forward guidance on what you're going to do around rental inflation coming down, you want to see it. You want to see it in the data. And so that's why they've been so willing to say, you know what, we're just going to, we're going to hold longer here.Guneet Dhingra: Perfect. So just to get the Fed call on the record, what exactly are you calling for the Fed? And I know investors love the hypothetical question. What is the probability in your mind that the Fed doesn't cut at all in 2024?Ellen Zentner: Yeah, they do love scenario analysis. So here we go. So, our baseline is they cut in July. They skip September. By November, the inflation data is coming down to monthly prints that tell them they're on track for their 2 per cent goal and at risk of falling below it. So, from November to June next year, they're cutting every meeting to roughly around three and a half percent.Now, as you asked, what if inflation doesn't go down? So, inflation doesn't go down, you know, then the Fed's forecast and our forecast are going to be wrong and the three rate cuts they envision is predicated on that inflation forecast coming true. So, you know, the most important takeaway from that scenario is that the result would be a Fed on holder for longer. But as opposed to a hike being the next move -- and I think that's really important here. The Fed is still very strongly convicted on they will cut this year. This is about the timing. Now, the hold period could last into 2025, I mean, we don't know, but what happens if inflation accelerates from here?So, I'm going to provide another scenario here. So, there is a scenario where inflation accelerates on a backdrop of strong growth, which would suggest it might be sustained, and perhaps begins to lift inflation expectations. Now, you know, that's a recipe for a hold that then turns into additional hikes as the Fed realizes neutral is just higher than where rates currently sit. But at this point, I would put quite a low probability on that scenario. But from a risk weighted perspective, I suppose it should be taken into account.So, given all this and the changes that we've made, what is your expectation for rates for the rest of the year?Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, I think we also, based on the forecast revision you guys have, we also revised up our treasury yield forecast. We earlier had 10 year yields ending slightly below 4 per cent by the end of 2024. Now we have them at about 4.15 percent which again is a 20-basis point uplift from our forecast before this. But still, I think it's not the higher for longer number that people are expecting because when I look at the forecast you have on the Fed, I think Fed path you have is well below what the markets expect.I think the forecast you have has about seven cuts from July this year to the middle of next year. The market for contrast is only four. There's a pretty massive gap that opens up, I think, between the way we see it -- and ultimately that does come down to the interpretation of the data that we're seeing so far.So, for us, the forecast numbers are slightly higher than before, but the message still is: we are not in the hire for longer camp, and we do expect rates to end up below the market applied forwards.Ellen Zentner: All right. So, you know, I've talked a lot about immigration. One could say I've been pretty obsessed with it over the last couple of months. But from a rates perspective, you know, what are the broader implications of the immigration story for that? You know, this, this bigger but not tighter economy. How do you translate that into rates?Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, let me say your obsession has been contagious. You know, I've caught on to that bug, the immigration bug. And, you know, I've been I've been discussing this thesis with investors, quite a lot. And I think it seems to me as you framed it pretty nicely. It's a bigger but not a tighter economy. I don't think investors have caught on to that page yet. I think most investors continue to think of these inflation prints is telling you that this is a tighter economy. Bigger, yes -- maybe on the margin. But the tighter part is still very much in people's minds. And when I look at the optics off the CPI numbers, the payroll numbers, investors have just been very conditioned, very reflexively conditioned to look at a 250K number on payrolls as a very strong number. They look at the 3 per cent number of GDP as a very strong number.And as you laid out earlier, these numbers may not be necessarily telling you about an overheating economy. But simply a bigger economy. So, I think the disconnect is there, pretty pervasive. And I think for me, most investors will take a lot of time to get over the optics. The optics of three strong points of inflation, the optics of 250K payrolls. I think it's gradually seeping in. But for now, I think the true impact or the true learnings from the immigration story is not very well understood in the investment community.Ellen Zentner: Okay, but is there, is there anything else missing in your view?Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, quite a few things. I think you can add more nuances to this immigration story itself. For example, when I think about last year, when rates were going up massively in third quarter, fourth quarter, one of the focal points was Atlanta Fed GDP Now. My GDP now was tracking close to four and a half, five per cent, and inflation was cooling pretty clearly in the second half of last year. And so investors had a choice to make. Do we actually trust the GDP growth numbers? Because they are probably an inflation risk in the future. And the markets very clearly chose to focus on growth with the belief that this growth is eventually going to lead to high inflation. And so, I think that disconnect has really translated into, sort of, what I would call like a house of cards where investors have built the entire market level on growth upside, and growth upside, and growth upside.So, I think the market level -- when I do the math and try and suss out the counterfactual -- the market level of 4.6 per cent tenure should have and could have been a market level of 3.8 per cent tenure based on my calculations. And so, there's an 80-basis point gap from where we are to where we could have been based on a misunderstanding of the supply story and the immigration story.Ellen Zentner: Yeah, I certainly wish the volatility was a lot lower here. It would make it easier for the Fed and for us to separate signal from noise. Certainly difficult for market participants to do that. But Guneet, thanks for taking the time to talk.Guneet Dhingra: Great speaking with you, Ellen.Ellen Zentner: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

 -Tim Adams, IIF President-Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist, UBS-Klaas Knot, Dutch Central Bank President & European Central Bank Governing Council MemberIIF President Tim Adams says geopolitical uncertainties, including the US presidential election, are overwhelming global economic calculations. UBS Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle says the 'extraordinary pace of growth' in the US may lead the Fed to raise interest rates, but still expects two cuts this year. Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot says the ECB is 'confident that the overall picture is one of disinflation.'  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney for April 12th, 2024Featuring: Neil Dutta, Partner at Renaissance Macro Research, along with Ira Jersey, Chief US Rates Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, on CPI and the Fed Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, on CPI Steven Ricchiuto, Chief US Economist with Mizuho Securities, on CPI Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

-Lara Rhame, Chief US Economist, FS Investments-Jack Manley, Executive Director & Global Market Strategist, JPMorgan-Ellen Wald, Sr. Fellow, Atlantic CouncilLara Rhame of FS Investments says the nuances around inflation should give the Fed more patience before cutting interest rates. JPMorgan's Jack Manley says the dynamic between the Fed and inflation has become a 'chicken and the egg' situation. Ellen Wald, Sr. Fellow at the Atlantic Council, says she doesn't expect the US to tap into its strategic oil reserves to lower gas prices in the short-term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Speakers:   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the March jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyApril 3rd, 2024Featuring: Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist at Deutsche Bank, discusses his eco outlook for Q2 and how high prices may weigh further on consumers into the summer Ed Morse, Senior Advisor at Hartree Partners, discusses energy, commodities, and growing risks in the market and risks to demand Robert D. Kaplan, author of "The Loom of Time," on geopolitical concerns ranging from escalating Middle East tensions and China to uncertainty for Ukraine as they combat Russian aggression Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMarch 28th, 2024Featuring: Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI, on market bullishness in 2024 and whether it can last as well as what we can see from Jay Powell tomorrow Richard Haas, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, on geopolitical outlook for 2024 and concerns involving China, Ukraine, and Israel and how Congress is approaching each conflict Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, discusses her note on the economic impact of the Baltimore Bridge collapse Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceEric Mollo See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

 -Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist, Citi-Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity, Derivatives and Quant Strategist, Evercore ISI-Ron Dermer, Israel Strategic Affairs MinisterCiti Chief US Economist Andrew Hollenhorst says the Fed could still cut rates if inflation remains closer to 3% than 2%. Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI says we've entered the 'zone of exuberance' in the equity market. Ron Dermer, Israel Strategic Affairs Minister, says Israel has no choice but to 'finish the job' in Gaza. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm's Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Ethan during his time as Head of Global Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, from where he retired last year.Ethan is a wealth of knowledge, not only for his insights on the economy and Fed watching – but we also get into detail on how he approaches the role of a Wall Street economist and how that compares to the role of an academic. How to separate the noise from signal in the economic data and how to pick your spots against the consensus. To me, he's set the standard for those that have come after him in the business.

Morgan Stanley's chief economists have their quarterly roundtable discussion, focusing on the state of inflation across global regions, the possible effect of the US election on the economy and more.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts On the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. On this episode, on this special episode of the podcast, we'll hold our second roundtable discussion covering Morgan Stanley's global economic outlook as we look into the second quarter of 2024.It's Thursday, March the 14th at 10 am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And it's 2 pm in London.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong.Seth Carpenter: Excellent. So, things around the world have changed significantly since our roundtable last quarter. US growth is notably stronger with few signs of a substantial slowdown. Inflation is falling, but giving some hints that things could stay -- maybe -- hotter for longer.In Europe, things are evolving mostly as anticipated, but energy prices are much lower, and some data suggest hope for a recovery. Meanwhile, in China, debt deflation risks are becoming a reality. And the last policy communication shows no sign of reflation. And finally, Japan continues to confirm the shift in equilibrium, and we are expecting the policy rate change imminently.So, let's dig into these developments. I am joined by the leaders of the economics team in key regions. Ellen Zentner is our Chief US Economist, and she's here with me in New York. Chetan Ahya is our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt is our Chief Europe Economist.Ellen, I'm going to start with you and the US. Have the stronger data fundamentally changed your view on the US economy or the Fed?Ellen Zentner: So, coming off of 2023, growth was just stronger than expected. And so, carrying that into 2024, we have revised upward our GDP forecast from 1.6 per cent Q4 over Q4 to 1.8 per cent. So already we've got stronger growth this year. We have not changed our inflation forecast though; because this could be another year of stronger data coming from supply side normalization, and in particular the labor market -- where it's come amid higher productivity and decelerating inflation. So, I think we're in store for another year like that. And I would say if I add risks, it would be risk to the upside on growth.Seth Carpenter: Okay, that makes sense. But if there's risk to the upside on growth -- surely there's some risk that the extra strength in growth, or even some of the slightly stronger inflation that we've seen, that all of that could persist; and the Fed could delay their first cut beyond the June meeting, which is what you've got penciled in for the first cut. So how do you think about the risks to the timing for the Fed?Ellen Zentner: So, I think you've got a strong backdrop for growth. You've got relatively easy financial conditions. And Fed policymakers have noted that that could pose upside risks to the economy and to inflation. And so, they're very carefully parsing every data point that comes in. Chair Powell said they need a bit more confidence on inflation coming down. And so that means that the year over year rate on core PCE -- their preferred measure of inflation -- needs to continue to take down.I think that the risk is more how long they stay on hold -- than if the next move is a hike, which investors have been very focused on. Do we get to that point? And so certainly if we don't see the next couple of months and further improvement, then I think it just does lead for a longer hold time for the Fed.Seth Carpenter: All right. A risk of a longer hold time. Chetan, how do you think about that risk?Chetan Ahya: That risk is important to consider. We recently published on the idea that Asian central banks will have to wait for the Fed. Even though inflation across Asia is settling back into target ranges, central banks appear to be concerned that real rate differentials versus US are negative and still widening, keeping Asian currencies relatively weak.This backdrop means that central banks are still concerned about future upside to inflation and that it may not durably stay within the target. Finally, growth momentum in Asia excluding China has been holding up despite the move in higher real rates -- allowing central banks more room to be patient before cutting rates.Seth Carpenter: I got it. Okay, so Jens, what about for the ECB? Does the same consideration apply if the Fed were to delay its cutting cycle?Jens Eisenschmidt: I'm glad you're asking that question, Seth, because that's sort of the single most asked question by our clients. And the answer is, well, yes and no. In our baseline, first of all, to stress this, the ECB cuts before the Fed, if only by a week. So, we think the ECB will go on June 6th to be precise. And what we have heard, last Thursday from the ECB meeting exactly confirms that point. The ECB is set to go in June, barring a major catastrophe on growth or disappointments on inflation.I think what is key if that effect cuts less than what Ellen expects currently; the ECB may also cut less later in the year than we expect.So just to be precise, we think about a hundred basis points. And of course, that may be subject to downward revision if the Fed decides to go later. So, it's not an idle or phenomenon. It's rather a rather a matter of degree.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay, so that's really helpful to put the, the Fed in the context of global central banks. But, Ellen, let me come back to you. If I'm going to look from here through the end of the year, I trip over the election. So, how are you thinking about what the US election means for the Fed and for the economy as a whole?Ellen Zentner: Sure. So, I think the important thing to remember is that the Fed has a domestic directive. And so, if there is something impacting the outlook -- regardless, election, geopolitics, anything -- then it comes under their purview to support the economy. And so, you know, best example I can give maybe is the Bush Gore election, when we didn't know who was going to be president for more than two months.And it had to go to the Supreme Court, and at that time, the uncertainty among households, among businesses on who will be the next president really created this air pocket in the economy. So that's sort of the best example I can give where an election was a bit disruptive, although the economy bounced back on the other side of that.Seth Carpenter: But can I push you there? So, it sounds like what you're saying is it's not the election per se that the Fed cares about. the Fed's not entering into the political fray. It's more what the ramification of the election is for the economy. Is that a fair statement?Ellen Zentner: Absolutely. Absolutely fair.Chetan Ahya: One issue the election does force us to confront is the prospect of geopolitical tension, and in particular the fact that President Trump has discussed further tariffs. For China, it is worth considering the implications, given the current weakness.Seth Carpenter: That's a really good point, Chetan, but before we even get there, maybe it's worth having you just give us a view on where things stand now in China. Is there hope of reflationary fiscal policy?Chetan Ahya: Unfortunately, doesn't seem like a lot right now. We have been highlighting that China needs to stimulate domestic demand with expansionary fiscal policy targeted towards boosting consumption. And it is in this context that we were closely watching policy announcement during the National People's Congress a couple of weeks ago.Unfortunately, the announcement in NPC suggests that there are very limited reflationary policies being implemented right now. More importantly, the broad policy focus remains firmly on supporting investment and the supply side; and not enough on the consumption side. So, it does seem that we are far away from getting that required reflationary and rebalancing policies we think is needed to lift China back to moderate 2 to 3 per cent inflation trajectory.Jens Eisenschmidt: I would jump in here and say that part of the ongoing weakness we see in Europe and in particularly Germany is tied to the slowdown in global trade and the weakness Chetan is talking about for China.Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens, if you're going to jump in, that's great. Could you just let us know where do you think things go in Europe then for the rest of this year and into next year?Jens Eisenschmidt: So, we see indeed a small rebound. So, things are not looking great on numbers. But, you know, where we are coming from is close to recessionary territory; so everything that's up looks will look better.So, we have 0. 5 on year and year growth rates; 1 percent next year; 0.5 for this year. In terms of quarterly profiles -- so, essentially we are hitting at some point later this year a velocity between 0.2 to 0.3, which is close to potential growth for the Euro area, which we estimate at 1.1.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay, so outside of the U. S. then. China's week. Europe's lackluster Chetan, I gotta come back to you. Give us some good news. Talk to us about the outlook for Japan. We were early adopters of the Japan reflation story. What does it look like now?Chetan Ahya: Well, the outlook in Japan is the exact opposite of China. We are constructive on Japan's macro-outlook, and we see Japan transitioning to a moderate but sustainable inflation and higher normal GDP growth environment.Japan has already experienced one round of inflation and one round of wage growth. But to get to sustained inflation, we need to see wage growth to stay strong and more evidence of wage passing through to inflation. In this context, we are closely watching the next round of wage negotiations between the trade unions and the corporate sector.We expect the outcome of first round of negotiations to be announced on March 15th, and we think that this will reflect a strong acceleration in wage growth in Japan. And that, we think, will allow Japan's core inflation to be sustained at 1.5 to 1.75 per cent going forward.This rise in inflation will mean higher normal GDP growth and lower real interest rates, reviving the animal spirits and revitalize the corporate sector. We do see BOJ moving from negative rates to positive rates in March 19th policy meeting and later follow up with another 15 bps (basis points) hike in July policy meeting. But we think overall policy environment will remain accommodative supporting Japan's reflation story.Seth Carpenter: All right, that does make me feel a little bit better about the global economy outside of the US. But I'm seeing the indication from the producers, we've got to wrap up. So, I'm going to go to each of you, rapid fire questions. Give me two quick risks to your forecast. Ellen for the US…Ellen Zentner: All right. If we're wrong and the economy keeps growing faster, I think I would peg it on something like fiscal impulse, which has been difficult to get a handle on. Maybe throw in easier than expected financial conditions there that fuel the economy, fuel inflation. I think if we slow a lot more then it's likely because of some stresses in the banking sector.Let's think about CRE; we say it's contained, maybe it's not contained. And then also if companies decide that they do need to reduce headcounts because economic growth is weaker, and so we lose that narrative of employee retention.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay, Jens, you're up. Two risks.Jens Eisenschmidt: The key upside risk is clearly consumption. We have a muted part for consumption; but consumption isn't really back to where it has been pre-COVID or just barely so. So, there's certainly more way up and we could be simply wrong because our outlook is too muted.Downside, think of intensification of supply chain disruptions. Think about Red Sea. The news flow from there is not really encouraging. We have modeled this. We think so far so good. But if persists for longer or intensified, it could well be a downside risk because either inflation goes up and/or growth actually slows down.Seth Carpenter: Perfect. All right, Chetan, let me end with you and specifically with China. If we are going to be wrong on China, what would that look like?Chetan Ahya: We think there are two upside risks to our cautious view on China's macro-outlook. Number one, if global trade booms, that helps China to use its excess capacity and enables it to de-lever and lift its inflation. And number two, if we see a shift in the reflationary and rebalancing policies, such that there is aggressive increase in social expenditure on things like healthcare, education, and public housing. This would help households to unlock precautionary saving, boost consumption demand, and get China out of current deflationary environment.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Ellen, Chetan, Jens, thank you each for joining us today. And to the listener, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share thoughts on the market with a friend or a colleague today.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMarch 14th, 2024Featuring: Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief US Economist at Payden & Rygel, on immediate reaction to PPI and retail sales Brian Weiser, Principal at Madison and Wall, LLC, on TikTok potential ban. Hessam Nadji, CEO at Marcus & Millichap, on CRE, mortgage rate dip, and other real estate topics Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the February jobs report.     Speakers: Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648073-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Feb 15, 2024 – FS Insider speaks with Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, to get an update on the broad economic outlook when it comes to US growth, inflation, the US consumer and much more. Ryan explains how...

A storm may be brewing off the coast. It is not a new concern for investors, but its intensity has grown. The US federal government owes more than $34 trillion—and counting. This level of debt has the potential to wreak havoc, even for the world's largest economy. Government debt has grown in other parts of the globe as well, and debt held by consumers and businesses can also pose economic risks. With a tsunami of debt lurking in the distance, investors must take stock of the potential ramifications if it ever crashes onto the shore. This episode of The Outthinking Investor addresses the economic challenges associated with an increasing debt burden, the impact on inflation, interest rates and financial markets, and fiscal policy prescriptions that could help bring the debt under control. Randal Quarles, former Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve; Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; and Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist for PGIM Fixed Income, join the podcast to give a unique perspective on the intersection of debt, fiscal policy and financial markets.

Speakers:  Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the December jobs report. This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Cam Harvey, Professor at Duke University Faqua School of Business, joins to discuss the FOMC meeting, the Treasury auction, and outlook for a hard landing. Jen Rie, Senior Antitrust Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and George Ferguson, Senior Defense/Aerospace Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the Spirit-JetBlue trial, what it means for the industry, and airline earnings and industry outlook. Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, joins to discuss the Fed and outlook for rates in 2024. Chris Whalen, founder at Whalen Global Advisors, joins to discuss bank liquidity, the Fed, and outlook for a hard landing. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oct 27, 2023 – FS Insider speaks with Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg LP, who previously served on the Federal Reserve board, White House Council of Economic Advisors, and the US Treasury. Anna discusses this week's...