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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2026 6:06

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the giant US economy is slowing. It hasn't had three consecutive lackluster quarters in at least a decade, certainly not since the GFC. US jobless claims fell last week but by less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than last year at this time but only marginally less than two years ago. US PCE inflation fell in June to 3.7% from 4.0% in May, as analysts had expected. But that is way higher than the Fed used to say it would tolerate. Personal disposable income rose less than personal spending, and for a fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, their Q2-2026 GDP update sagged in its first estimate, now up +1.5% and lower than the Q1-2025 final reading of +2.0%. Analysts had expected Q2 to come in at 2.1% so this data is a disappointment. It does mean a Fed rate hike is probably off the table, so equity markets rose. But so did long term bond yields although there was a notable pullback in short term yields and so their rate curve steepened sharply. The USD also took a tumble and is now down -1.6% in just the past two days. As expected, China's top leadership pledged to roll out targeted stimulus measures to support their economy in the second half of the year. The directives, issued at a Politburo meeting yesterday, come as the world's second-largest economy faces weak domestic demand and deepening structural imbalances. Second-quarter growth has been lower than they need to reach their targets. In Japan, observers see a Bank of Japan market intervention to support the yen. The yen rose sharply to the 157 range against the US dollar at one point yesterday, its strongest level since mid-May. Staying in Japan, consumer sentiment picked up in July but that is off a lowish base and it is barely back to its 2023-2024 levels. Sentiment surveys in the EU were out too for July and they rose again to extend their streak for both consumers and business sentiment.. EU GDP results for Q2-2026 were also released overnight, rising to 1.2% from a year ago. For them, that is quite positive. In Germany, CPI inflation rose 2.8% in July, up from 2.3% in June which was below what they had in prior months, so more back at trend. The Bank of England reviewed their monetary policy overnight, but made no changes. In Australia in a briefing released on the ASX, banking major NAB noted that their "total Australian home lending applications were 15% lower than the prior quarter". Staying in Australia, they reported that the number of new dwellings consented rose +7.2% in June from May to 18,328 (up +8.9% from a year ago). Houses were up only +0.4% but other dwellings were up almost +18% from May, although that doesn't quite take them back to year-ago levels despite this recent surge. Yesterday, Ampol (the owner of Z Energy here) reported sharply increased margins. Clearly refiners have been adding much more to retail prices than just the higher cost of crude. Global air travel fell in June, not by a lot, but essentially driven by sharp retreats in Middle East travel. Also unusual is a fall-off in both domestic and international travel in North America, an unexpected shift. Domestic air travel in China was also unusually weak. Container freight rates fell again last week, down -3% but they remain +70% higher than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates also fell marginally to be -24% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is nearly at a 20 year high. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +44 bps (+13 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +36 bps (+8 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +100 bps (+6 bps). There has been a sharp steepening of the US rate curve today, a harsh market verdict on the Warsh performance yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4105/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have dipped by -50 USc from yesterday at now just under US$84/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$89/bbl and down -US$1.50. Hormuz transits are still constrained. There have been 3 crude tankers and only 7 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and ten entering for new loads (4 dark). The Red Sea activity is still low at less than 20 either way. The Kiwi dollar is up +100 bps from yesterday at just under 58.8 USc and suddenly back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.5 which is up +80 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,802 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hot war spread to reignite inflation risks

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2026 6:11

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and the world are facing a new jolt of inflation as the hot war activity spread. The US central bank response? ignore the risks and pretend things will return to normal soon. But first, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, their largest dip since mid-May, and driven by a -10% fall in refinance activity. And that came as their benchmark mortgage interest rate rose yet again, now its highest in a year. Also falling sharply last week were US crude oil stocks, down much more than expected. They have fallen in 12 of the past 14 weeks, and this latest one is one of the larger retreats. Worse perhaps, their strategic oil reserves are now at at levels they last had in 1983 just after they started building these reserves in 1982, and their economy is now nine times as large. These strategic reserves have gone from double the private system holdings, to only 75% of them. It is poublic mismanagement on an epic scale. The US Fed held its policy rate unchanged, even while noting they have high inflation that isn't easing and they have "supply shocks that have driven price increases" well above their 2% goal. But it was a split decision with three members voting to hike +25 bps. One of those was not Jerome Powell; he was in the nine who voted for the hold. Chairman Warsh's style is all over this statement because it was very short with little transparency. And Warsh's inflation fighting vow seems to be just talk. Across the Pacific, Singapore reported that their producer prices rose more than +30% in June from a year ago, maintaining the pace of increase for non-oil goods they have had since March. In South Korea, there has been real drama on their stock exchange with declines so sharp they had to temporarily suspend trading. It is all related to perceptions about tech valuations. Even though these companies are reporting sharp profit increases, investors worry that Chinese chipmakers are about to eat their lunch. At one point yesterday the share market there was down -13%, suddenly wiping out all the prior AI gain euphoria. But it ended down 'only' +6% to cap a five-day retreat of -17%. In Australia, June CPI inflation came in at 3.8%, and less than the 4.0% expected. It was kept up by the expiry of household energy support measures, but the falls in fuel costs more than offset that. More here. Will this deter the RBA from moving their policy rate on August 11? It may do, but inflation expectations remain very high. Some analysts now expect a hawkish hold. The lower CPI hit the AUD hard yesterday, presumably because FX markets no longer see higher interest rates imminently. The global credit risk environment has evolved heading into the second half of 2026 but continues to be driven by two main sources of short-term risk, according to Fitch Ratings; rising vulnerability to an AI-related market correction and persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. This is on top of a broader context of slowing US consumer momentum, high inflation risks stemming from the 2Q energy shock and structural public finance pressures limiting the ability to respond to risk events. Credit risk premiums will rise, says Fitch. Iran was annoyed Trump claimed talks were taking place when they weren't, so they reinforced their point. Then the US and Saudi Arabia attacked Iran-linked forces in Iraq. And the Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers off Yemen. This mess isn't going away. June air cargo demand rose in June, at a time of a relative lull in Middle East tensions. It was up +8.5% overall, up +9.6% for international trade. Asia/Pacific activity was up +9.5% from a year ago. There were larger increases in air cargo trade with North America. Meanwhile the China-to-Europe cargo train trade is surging, added to by very fast 15 day transit times for peak demand of air conditioning units, for example. Shipping via the Suez canal chokepoint will probably never recover for consumer goods. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday and with a small push higher after the Fed decision. The price of gold has risen to US$4075/oz, back up +US$45 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, back up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have risen sharply by +US$5.50 from yesterday at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$90.50/bbl and up +US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 8 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (6 dark with transponders off) and 16 entering for new loads (11 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just under 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,890 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Learning to live with less oil

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2026 5:15

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's clear need for less oil has pushed its price sharply lower even as both the Gulf of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain effectively shut. As other sources raise their output, global demand is being undermined, essentially by this Chinese transition. But first up today, we should note the overnight dairy Pulse auction. Prices achieved were a bit more than -1% lower than the prior week's full auction in USD, but a bit less than that in NZD. In the US, the ADP weekly private payrolls monitoring recorded another easing, only +15,000 and extending the easing trend that has been in place since early May. The US merchandise trade deficit came in more than -US$100 bln in June, a second straight month of an unusually high negative level. Year-on-year, exports were up, but imports rose faster. Meanwhile both their retail (+3.1%) and wholesale inventories (+4.1%) rose in June, reflecting the stockpiling trend that has been in place for a while now. The expected improvement in the Richmond Fed factory survey didn't eventuate in July from June, but it remains modestly positive. New order flows edged lower while price and cost levels remained elevated. But there was a solid improvement in the Dallas Fed services sector recorded in their July survey. Nationally, the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey in the US took a step lower in July. This extends its falling trajectory that started in early 2025. The auction for the US Treasury 7yr Note was well supported earlier today but again, investors are getting higher yields for the elevated risk they perceive. This latest one delivered a median yield of 4.41% (high of 4.47%) compared to 4.20% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Japan, a major 7.1 earthquake in the south has caused widespread damage and deaths. And Japan's parliament has approved a plan to create a "second capital" capable of keeping the country running if disaster strikes Tokyo. It is likely to be in Osaka. Malaysia said producer prices there were +9.2% higher in June than a year ago. This was an unexpected jump from the anticipated +7.7% which was similar to the May rise. Staying in the region, Singapore reported its birth rate for 2025 and for the first time since its independence, it has fallen below +30,000 in a year. It, like many places, is on a steep trajectory of lower fertility. Industrial production in India rose +7.3% in June from a year ago, more than expected and the sharpest pace of expansion in nearly two years. It seems to be bouncing back from the initial shocks from the Middle East conflict. Later today, we will be getting the June CPI result from Australia and a no-change 4.0% rate is anticipated. But yesterday Governor Michelle Bullock was out speaking and affirming that they are worried that these high levels are embedding, so their 1-3% target range is not likely in the medium term. Some are wondering if this was a signal that an unexpected hike is about to be delivered next week. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4030/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$57/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen another -US$3.50 from yesterday at now just over US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl and down -US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 3 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and three entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,568 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

US backs away in Hormuz after achieving nothing

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2026 6:02

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz as the US backs away, unable to exert the pressure it thought it could. The pause in fighting there has calmed markets significantly even if few ships are actually transiting. Elsewhere, the US durable goods order report for June was a strong one, up +8.9% from the same month a year ago, but only up +0.3% from May, so most of the gain was in prior months and the June rise was much less than the expected +2.5%. Capital goods were up +4.1% from a year ago, but excluding defense and aircraft, they were up a good +14%. The Dallas Fed regional factory survey was positive too, even if only marginally. That completes seven consecutive months of only marginal changes, some up, some down. Price and wage pressures remained markedly elevated, they said. There were two large US Treasury bond auctions overnight, both well supported. But both saw sharpish rises in yields from the prior equivalent events a month ago. The two year median yield rose +13 bps, and the five year yield rose +21 bps on the same basis. In Canada, their central bank surveys market participants quarterly and these professionals were less upbeat than at the previous survey. They foresaw no policy rate changes in 2026, but rises in the next two years. They also foresee a 25% chance of recession, although more likely growth in the 1-2% range. This is lower than in the prior survey. Trump's trade tensions are the main risk they see. Singapore has surprised markets with another tightening move, its second consecutive such shift. Singapore regulates its monetary policy via its exchange rate (the S$NEER). It is raising its exchange rate to dampen inflationary pressures. The June CPI inflation rate there rose to 1.9%, its highest since August 2024. Singapore's industrial production growth came in less than expected in June, up +7.2% from a year ago when a +9% rise was expected, down from the almost +18% in May. China reported strong industrial profit growth in June, up +15% from the same month a year ago although this was less than the claimed +18% growth rate for the first half of 2026. They say their factory sector profits rose more than 20% on the year-to-date basis, but companies producing electricity saw theirs fall more than -4%. Local listed companies did well, but foreign companies hardly made any gains. Local private companies came in in-between. Expectations are rising that the current CCP summit in Beijing will deliver new stimulus programs. The Indonesian central bank chief has been pushed out with two years left on his term. The Indonesian government wasn't happy with the standard approach of the experienced governor, and wanted the central bank to support it's all-out drive for economic growth rather than inflation control. It was a sudden change, but one preceded by the President appointing a family member as a deputy governor earlier in the year (remember Turkey?). Indonesia has been suffering a weak currency due to the political interference. In Europe, Spain, France and Italy are all battling out-of-control wildfires. Everywhere is battling intense heat. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4078/oz, up +US$26 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$58.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen sharply and by US$8 from yesterday at now just over US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89.50/bbl and down -US$9. Hormuz transits are still basically halted There have been 3 crude tankers and only 2 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and two entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is only marginally more active. The IEA has been reviewing why oil markets have proven more resilient through the current crisis than some had feared and they point out that oil output in countries not directly affected by the Persian Gulf troubles has risen notably and most countries are permitting export flows. They also point o the major release of strategic reserves to cushion the shocks, with 290 mln barrels released so far with more than 1 bln still in reserve. But they note that markets for refined products are considerably tighter than for crude oil. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,917 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Transactional Trump trapped by his own missteps

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2026 8:11

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that after more bellicose threats, Trump has backed off hitting Iran as he had signaled, another TACO twist. The region isn't quiet, but the threatened escalation by the US hasn't happened, not yet anyway. The oil price hasn't really eased back yet on this lull and is holding most of last week run-up towards US$100/bbl again. Trumps policy twerking has everyone unnerved. Away from that and looking ahead locally, this week will feature the big data dump of the June quarter RBNZ series. We will especially be watching household deposit growth, which stalled in May. In Australia, it will be all about Wednesday's CPI release (expect a small rise to 4.1%) and Friday's PPI (expect a rise to 3.5%). In the US, the spotlight will be on the Thursday Fed meeting. Analysts expect no-change at 3.75% even though CPI inflation was at 3.5% for June and rising, remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. Even their PCE inflation was running at 4.1% for May. We will get their June update on Friday. In the meantime, financial markets are pricing in more of a chance of a hike - if not at this meeting then two by the end of the year. There will be a lot of other US data out this week, including a Q2 GDP update, and the Conference Board's sentiment survey. The week will also feature some Big Tech profit results. In Japan, all eyes will be on Friday's central bank decision, especially on how they intend to respond to their currency problems. Not no change from their 1% rate is anticipated. In China, it will be all about a big set-piece Communist Party meeting. There will be a lot of interest to see if big new stimulus is announced there. Their PMI's may signal how urgent that is. Over the weekend in Japan, CPI inflation stayed low in June even if it did rose to a six month high. It came in at 1.7% in June from 1.5% in May, its highest since December. The pickup was largely driven by a slower decline in electricity and fuel prices as government energy subsidies were scaled back. Japan's private sector expanded to a five-month high in July via a sharp rise in manufacturing production and an improvement in their factory PMI which was driven mainly by the sharpest increase in manufacturing orders for five years. The July PMIs for India came in notably lower than for June as private sector growth receded and inflation pressure, especially for fuel, intensified. This is putting them in a tough spot with spreading social unrest. Their factory PMI dipped only marginally but their services PMI registered a notable easing. In the US the first of the July PMIs shows that business activity growth rose modestly but to an eight-month high in July although that isn't an especially high benchmark. However selling prices rose sharply and at their fastest rate for nearly four years. Input cost inflation was at a 14 month high. Their factory sector expansion was little-changed however from June with new orders little-changed. It was their services sector that expanded more, albeit modestly US new home sales were little-changed in June but maintained the modest level they have had all year. That makes then -5.6% lower than year-ago levels. Canadian producer price growth fell back slightly in June from May but are still +12.4% higher than year-ago levels. Raw material input costs by manufacturers were up more than +20% from a year go. Meanwhile, the Russian central bank trimmed -25 bps from its key policy rate, taking it to 14.0%. A year ago, this rate was 21%. They have CPI inflation officially at 6.0%, although this seems an unlikely level. In the EU, eurozone business activity has risen for first time in four months in July amid renewed expansion of new orders. Their factory PMI inched up, and their services PMI inched up too. But to be fair, these higher levels are not significant and the expansion is minor compared to other global regions. But at least it isn't a contraction. The German versions of these PMIs was generally better than the overall set. German consumer sentiment didn't budge however. In Europe, their ugly heat and worrying fire season isn't easing. In fact a new wave of extreme heat is forecast over the next few weeks. It is part of an accelerating trend that will likely extinguish European glaciers far faster than anticipated just ten years ago. Australia also got better new factory order levels in July, the first increase in new business in five months. Improved demand conditions underpinned a stronger expansion in output, led to upgraded recruitment activity and enabled greater protection of profit margins. This data confirms the good labour market data released yesterday. But overall Australian growth is likely to remain sluggish. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra house prices actually fell in the June quarter, an unusual but necessary shift to make their housing more affordable. It takes serious political bravery to turn a frothy market where gains just fell from the sky. Bitumen prices are surging again on the closed Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes. They are back to levels that we had in mid-March and which lasted to mid-June. Interestingly, urea prices are staying low as are potash prices (minor rises) but sulphur prices never fell after the March spike. Naphtha (used for plastics manufacturing) is rising sharply again. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.68%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +13 bps for the week. The price of gold has firmed to US$4052/oz, virtually unchanged from Saturday up +US$49 for the week. Silver is now just on US$58/oz, down -50 USc from Saturday, up +US$2 for the week. Oil prices have risen back +US$1.50 from Saturday at now just over US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$98.50/bbl and up +US$2. A week ago these prices were US$82 and US$88/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have almost halted entirely There have been no crude tankers and only 1 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) and none entering for new loads (0 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). Still almost 800 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just on 57.9 USc but down -50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just over 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is unchanged from this time Saturday but down -50 bps from a week ago. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,673 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday and up +1.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Oil price surge sees financial markets stagger

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 6:58

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news tankers in the Red Sea have been hit by missiles fired from Yemen. This is unnerving global markets today, and oil prices have jumped everywhere. Bond yields are surging, pushing up mortgage rates and weighing on equity valuations, especially for tech firms. But first in the US, there were 192,000 initial jobless claims last week, a notable drop and far lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for and lower than expected. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, also lower than a year ago but actually an increase from a week ago as claimants are staying on benefits longer even if it is now much harder to get initially qualified. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index came in slightly below trend, but enough to suggest the US economic expansion was still in place in June. But if the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracking is to be believed, that expansion is at a modest level. Consensus forecasts are being trimmed too. The US Treasury 10 year TIPS yield of inflation-protected bonds jumped about +30 bps today and back to the highs we last saw in the pandemic and prior to that in the GFC. Canadian retail sales expanded in June, extending their positive track to six consecutive months. This was for both value and volume terms, to be +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Canadian CPI is running at 2.8%. Across the Pacific, China's foreign direct investment rose +US$11.1 bln in June, better than expected and better than the -US$7.6 bln fall in the same month in 2025. Meanwhile, China's consumer trade-in subsidy program is losing momentum as appliance and car demand weakens. South Korea said its economic activity expanded an impressive +3.7% in Q2-2026, almost the same as the +3.8% in Q1. This is their fastest expansion since Q4-2021, and came in above market estimates of +3.5%. Strong exports were a key factor in this result. Singapore's June CPI came in at +1.9% in June and although that was its highest since August 2024 it was less than the 2% expected. And that was because there was no change from May. In India, we should keep an eye on youth protests, because they are spready and gaining surprisingly wide support. In Europe and as expected by many, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged at its July meeting overnight, following the +25 bp hike in June. Since then, policymakers have struck a more cautious tone, adopting a "wait-and-see" approach as softer inflation, wage growth, economic activity, and inflation expectations have reduced the urgency for another move. But that may have changed today with the unexpectedly large spike in oil prices. But who knows how fast that may change again? Markets anticipate another ECB rate hike in September. Staying in the EU, consumer sentiment improved in July. That is to say it got less negative. And in a decision likely to intensify trans-Atlantic trade tensions, European Union regulators overnight hit Google with a €890 mln fine for illegally undercutting competition through its dominance in search. Google will not be hurt by this directly in the short term because it reported almost +US$41 bln in profits in Q2-2026 alone. If it is hurt, it will be from their heavy cash burn for its AI buildout. The Australian labour market grew surprisingly strongly in June, adding +76,300 new jobs, far better than the +15,000 expected. Their jobless rate was stable at +4.4%. More than half the new jobs were in NSW, with good gains also in Queensland and Western Australia. But Victoria shed jobs in the month. This strength will add spine to the RBA's fight against rising inflation (4.0%) because they will be now less worried about a weak economy The RBA next meets on August 11, 2026 - 17 days away. Global container freight rates fell -4% last week to be +74% higher than year ago levels. Outbound rates from China were the basis of the pullback from the prior week. Bulk cargo rates were down -8% for the week, and these are now a third higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since January 2025. Wall Street is -1.4% lower today on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -2.5%. The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$98 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$57.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are another +US$6 higher from yesterday at just on US$93/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$101.50/bbl and up +US$7. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been no crude tankers and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is another -40 bps lower from yesterday at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just over 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -40 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,762 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/-7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

The oil crisis isn't over yet

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2026 6:29

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we may be facing a renewed oil supply shortage and this time reserves are at unusually low levels. The combined impacts of extended closures in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea are mounting, and just as we thought the May-June stresses had faded. US mortgage applications rose slightly last week and that was despite an unexpected fall in refinance activity. But since mid-June this US housing market indicator has essentially been flat. And US mortgage rates are now at an 11 month high. US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week when another fall was anticipated. Yes, it was minor, but still. Maybe it indicates that local production is rising faster than some assume. Or surging imports from Canada or Venezuela? Or maybe that demand is lackluster. Or all three. US Strategic Reserve levels fell again and to their lowest level since 1983. Today's US Treasury 20yr bond auction saw its yield surge through 5%, ending with a median yield of 5.12% and a high of 5.16%. That is up sharply from the prior equivalent event a month ago of 4.88%. And demand was lower too (-4%). It is quite the rate move. Not to be outdone, the overnight German 20 year bund auction rose to 3.60%, up from 3.38% a month ago. Across the Pacific, Japanese exports rose faster than expected in June, up more than +19% from a year earlier. The weak yen helped as did strong demand for electronics and other data center equipment. The June export level was their second highest on record, just a whisker off the March record. At the same time their imports surged as well, up +25% and also more than expected to a new record high, just eclipsing the October 2022 level. Oil prices were high but oil import volumes retreated. The net result was a modest but stable trade deficit in June (from May), but slightly worse than the small trade surplus in June a year ago. None of this helped the yen however because it fell to a 40 year low against the USD. Against the NZD it has only been this low in 2024 and 2007. In case anyone is still confused, or unaware, the Chinese regulator, China Securities Regulatory Commission, has been organising the SOE home team to bolster the Chinese stock markets recently, after they showed some negative indications. This has driven some good rises, but also a creeping state ownership in many listed Chinese companies. The Shanghai Composite closed up +1.8% yesterday, the Shenzhen Component was up +4.8%, while the ChiNext was up +7.1% and the STAR Market index jumped 8.8%. This is not to claim other governments don't manipulate markets; they do (Trump, Japan, etc.). But the Chinese moves don't seem sustainable unless the reasons for the dour conditions that prompted the artificial buying are resolved. In other economies, regulators would get punished by investors if issues aren't resolved. In China it is the other way around. The Philippine-China dispute about who controls the sea off the Philippine coast is taking an ugly turn with China posting racist trope video targeting Filipino's. It is unnecessary and grubby diplomacy. But 'going low' isn't something China invented. Surprising most observers, the Indonesian central bank did not raise its policy rate overnight following its June out-of-cycle shift higher. It judged that that earlier move was all that is needed at this time to defend the rupiah. In Australia, the latest update of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, suggests growth there is stalling. While the latest growth pulse is still not overly weak it is broadly consistent with stalling activity through the middle of the year. Later today the June labour market report will be released in Australia. It is expected to show tame jobs growth. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.66%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and matching its recent mid-May highs. The price of gold has risen to US$4140/oz, up +US$71 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$60/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are another +US$2.50 higher from yesterday at just under US$87/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 2 crude tankers and 3 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 5 entering for new loads (3 dark). Three of these outbound ships were hit by missiles. The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is another -20 bps lower from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,141 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just over +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

canada donald trump australia china japan gold chinese german new zealand track bitcoin venezuela indonesia silver pacific surprising usc aussie oil usd red sea filipino yemen kiwi kia volatility hormuz black sea persian gulf us treasury ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand soe twi bond yields auc oil crisis nzd star market china securities regulatory commission

443. El dinero que tienes parado en el disco duro

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2026 44:20

Fran vuelve al podcast dos meses después de la operación: ya camina, ya vuelve a grabar y, sobre todo, ha estado subiendo miles de archivos que llevaban años olvidados en sus discos duros. Sesiones de 2024 y 2025 que nunca llegó a subir y que ahora están facturando. _ _ Hablamos también de cómo usar la inteligencia artificial para agilizar las subidas a las agencias más tediosas, del robo masivo de contenido con cuentas fraudulentas en Canva y Shutterstock, de por qué guardar los RAW puede salvarte la cuenta, y de la fusión Getty + Shutterstock que finalmente no se ha hecho. _ _ Nueva lección de Fran sobre IA aplicada al stock, este jueves en la Academia _ _ Lista de espera del Stock Master Pro → https://stockeros.com/registro-grupo-stockmaster-pro/ _ _ PhotoKeyworder con descuento para stockeros →https://www.photokeyworder.ai/?ma=STOCKEROS/

raw ia tienes canva duro el dinero shutterstock sesiones parado el disco

New US tariffs awaited - with yawns

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2026 5:55

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news many countries are awaiting news of a new barrage of US tariffs, although the fear level is nowhere near as high this time as this weapon has proven relatively limp in the past, and mainly hurts US consumers. First today, the overnight dairy auction surprised somewhat with an end to the recent weakness, rising +1.5% in USD terms although down almost -1.0% in NZD terms on the firmer NZD. Perhaps surprisingly, milk fats did quite well, other than cheddar (-6.5%). Powders were all up. Some say that northern hemisphere heatwaves have buyers nervous that this will soon weigh on production levels there, so stocks are being built in case. In the US, the slower hiring trend that started in early May continued last week with the ADP weekly tracking reporting its lowest level since March, just after this weekly tracking series started. US timber prices are rising and quite sharply recently. That is because of forest fires in the US Pacific Northwest states, and in British Columbia, the main exporting Canadian province to the US. Trump's new tariffs on Canada are making things worse for US housebuilders. The early outcomes for the Q2-2026 earnings reporting season (with 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 88% of these companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 85% have reported a positive revenue surprise. The US summer holiday season is starting to peak now and will stay like this until early August. The season overall ends on their Labor Day on September 7. We note this because commercial activity is different during this period and financial market activity is lighter than usual. The same is true for Canada of course. But US border states are doing it tough because Canadians are choosing to avoid the US for their holidays as the insults and tariff actions from Trump's Washington swamp stay aggressive. In China, new stimulus is being rolled out. Its gigantic "Six Networks" buildout is getting a major boost as part of more infrastructure spending. Those six are: water networks (canals), power grids, data centers, 6G development, undergrounding pipelines, and supply-chain efficiency upgrades. But they are also trying to get their service sector re-energised as well with targeted 'investments'. Meanwhile, China is re-thinking its tax rebates that are driving its export competitiveness. It needs those funds for its domestic projects, and it doesn't need the international alarm their mercantalist export policies are creating. In Europe, the ECB's Q2 lending survey has found banks have tightened credit standards moderately for firms on higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. Corporate loan demand rose while demand for housing loans and consumer debt decreased. Interestingly, companies seeking green loans were found to have much better financial profiles. Germany's ZEW sentiment survey recovered notably in July after four months on weakness, and this is mirrored in their wider survey for the EU. The price of copper is rising again, getting near the record highs it posted at the start of the Iran-US conflict. Driving some of this are unusually low copper stocks in China. Meanwhile the FAO is reporting that hunger in the world fell again in 2025 and for a third consecutive year. Around 645 million people, or 7.8% of the world's population, experienced hunger last year, down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022 The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and approaching its recent mid-May highs. The price of gold has risen to US$4069/oz, up +US$65 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday. Oil prices are +US$1.50 higher from yesterday at just on US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$92/bbl and up +US$3. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 1 crude tanker and 3 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 11 entering for new loads (3 dark) and all this traffic is Iran-linked. The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen. The Kiwi dollar is -20 bps lower from yesterday at just over 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.2 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,421 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just over +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

War and debt stresses grow

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 5:08

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Yemeni Houthis have announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia but effectively closing the Red Sea. Elsewhere new mediation efforts are underway again. In the US, the Conference Board's leading indicator tracking turned negative in June. The shift down isn't a lot because it wasn't very positive in earlier months. But it is consistent with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking showing an exhaustion of the pace of the US expansion. Off balance sheet debt at the big US tech giants is exploding, making investment assessments harder to make. It is now an estimated US$1.65 tln as artificial intelligence investments ballooned, a Nikkei study shows, and now exceeds actual reported debt. The problem is particularly acute at Meta. These companies are about to report Q2-2026 results and these debt levels are sure to become an issue. The main way these debt obligations stay off balance sheets is via "innovative" lease transactions centered around timing issues. And US Big Tech valuations are also under threat from Chinese alternatives, especially the relatively new Moonshot K3 version. It is hard not to to get a sense that financial markets are facing a revaluation crisis in the tech sector. In Canada, their CPI inflation rate came in at 2.8% in June, with a core rate of 2.1%. Both these measures were lower than in May and slightly lower than expected. The Malaysian export boom is carrying on (+45% from June a year ago), especially for electronics (+57%) and petroleum (+56%), and especially to the US (+109%). But they needed all of that because imports surged sharply too, up 44% from a year ago. The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a 14th straight month in July, as widely expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, a reference rate for mortgages, remained at 3.5%. However, rate cut expectations are rising there as their domestic economy slows. German producer prices were up a modest +1.8% in June from a year ago, similar to the prior two months. But this new level is in contrast to the PPI deflation they had reported for the earlier twelve consecutive months. A number of major countries are struggling to contain the devaluation of their currencies against the US dollar. Japan is seeing its currency at its weakest level since 1996. India is seeing levels back to near the record lows they had in mid-May. And Indonesia is battling record low levels as well. All these are major economies and all are trying to work what level of higher interest rate differential is needed to stabilise their situation. This is just part of a rising interest rate background, not helped by the prospect of higher US interest rates from their inability to tackle inflation effectively. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has slipped to US$4003/oz, down -US$14 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$56.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from yesterday at just under US$83/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89/bbl. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 1 crude tanker and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (8 dark) and all this traffic is Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer from yesterday at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,541 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 1

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 34:07

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 2

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 52:54

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 3

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 42:22

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 4

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 38:37

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Fires, fights & fragility undermine economic progress

toronto loves designs djing burning man intuit getty images shutterstock design teams

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2026 8:03

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is a good job we have sports to allow us a temporary distraction from the geopolitical mess that the US has initiated and which seems to just go on and on. A shut Hormuz and a jump in oil prices is bringing Groundhog Day. Back in the economic world, Tuesday's June CPI release will dominate this week's local data releases. Markets expect an elevated 4% rate, keeping the pressure on the OCR and the RBNZ to contain it. Events in the Middle East aren't helping. The next OCR review is not until September 2 however. In Australia, it will be all about their June labour market release. Markets expect only modest jobs growth and no jobless rate change. But developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated, impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks. There is not much market-moving economic data expected from the US this week. But earnings season results will be watched for indications and surprises. In Japan, they will release trade and inflation updates (1.6%?). Taiwan will be interesting for its industrial production data. Korea for its Q1-2026 GDP outcome. And Indonesia will review its policy rate again, after the unusual interim hike, and then taking it to possibly 6%. For them it is all about supporting their weakening currency. There is little significant data out of China this week. However, here's something we haven't covered so far. Their June trade data for China shows that its crude oil imports are now at a ten year low. In fact their June crude oil imports were -11.4% lower than a year ago in volume terms. It is a shift that will have global implications. We can also note that China closed nearly 30,000 kindergartens and primary schools in 2025. It is the consequence of the growing demographic slump we have been noting for some time. Recent data released by the Ministry of Education revealed a severe structural divergence: while early childhood and primary education are shrinking rapidly, high schools and universities are expanding to absorb a demographic bulge from earlier birth peaks. Three Chinese airlines have ordered 95 Airbus commercial jets. This has swelled Airbus's non-US order book over rival Boeing. Airbus (89) delivered more aircraft than Boeing (64) in June. Boeing is losing market share fast for clients outside the US, no doubt a direct consequence of reactions to nativist policies from Washington and risks of trade retaliation. Singapore's export growth fell back sharply and unexpectedly in June. Electronics exports remained elevated, but non-electronics exports were unusually weak in the month. Their big decliners were for petrochemicals, food, and non-monetary gold. Trade with the US was especially hard hit. Across the Pacific in Canada, the spread of their enormous wildfires are becoming an international irritant. Canada is struggling to contain them. In an unusual move, the US is refusing to assist, even though Canada sends crews and support to the US when they have wildfire emergencies. There are also major wildfires in many US states as well. In the US housing starts in June which came in +3.6% higher than year ago levels and brushing off their unusually weak May report. But for all the positives that some Fed district factory surveys have shown, these are not showing up in US industrial production data yet. You might have thought the increased local stockpiling surge would be visible by now. But to June, it isn't. US industrial production rose a paltry +0.1% in June to be +1.1% higher than a year ago. And that is its weakest increase in three months. Although consumers are still very negative in their sentiment, there was a notable improvement in the latest survey results from the widely-respected and long running University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its least negative reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the petrol pump in recent weeks. All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions. This month's rise in sentiment was consistent across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party. Will it last? If it truly is directly related to pump prices, then this weekend's outsized jump in crude oil prices (below) and the turn up in pump prices in the past few days, suggests not. Today's pump prices are almost back to month-ago levels when the sentiment survey hit its record lows. Looking backwards over the past month, US data has seen improvements. But these have not been enough to return the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking to where it was in May, so a sharp downshift is still in place. And it is worth noting that 'consensus forecasts' by mainstream economists have not yet reflected that retreat. The RBNZ also produces a GDP nowcast. After a somewhat unexpected blip up two weeks ago, the latest data has returned our Q2-2026 growth to a minimal level. The same for Q3-2026. (There is no Aussie GDP nowcast from an official institution. The Melbourne Institute version won't be updated until the end of the month.) In Australia, the latest weekend's residential auction activity was low, possibly back to levels they had in 2018. They are finally having the housing market correction necessary to address their affordability problems. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down a net -2 bps for the week. The price of gold has risen to US$4017/oz, up +US$12 from Saturday but down -US$83 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$56/oz, down -US$3.50 for the week. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from Saturday, up +US$3.50 from Friday at just on US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$71.50 and US$76 respectively so a +16% rise since then. Hormuz transits have been reduced to a trickle overnight There have been just 2 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 9 entering for new loads (6 dark) and almost this traffic isl Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.4 USc but up +80 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding, at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +80 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,542 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, up +1.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

university canada australia china education washington japan gold michigan ministry events new zealand progress iran trade middle east track bitcoin singapore silver korea economic taiwan pacific fights markets fires usc aussie fed oil boeing gdp groundhog day kiwi demographics electronics kia volatility hormuz airbus fragility oil prices ocr undermine ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi auc atlanta fed rbnz industrial production june cpi gdpnow melbourne institute and indonesia

Sam Gordashko Loves to DJ

Design Downtime

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2026 30:51 Transcription Available

Get ready for the beat to drop, when Sam Gordashko joins us to talk about her love of DJing. She traces her journey from recording mixtapes off the radio as a kid to spinning sets at Burning Man. She shares how she learned to embrace imperfection as a recovering perfectionist, breaks down her systematic approach to navigating 50,000 tracks, and explains how DJing puts her into a flow state of constant, calculated risk-taking. Sam also offers practical advice for anyone curious about trying DJing themselves.Guest BioSam Gordashko (she/her) is a freelance design systems pro with a design tokens obsession based out of Toronto, and she's on a mission to make complex tech feel human. Over the years, Sam has worked with big names like Getty Images, Shutterstock and Intuit, plus plenty of scrappy startups figuring it all out, with most of her career spent as a "Design Team of One" at various tech innovation startups. You might know her as Samantha Gordashko or Sam I am Designs, the public speaker, host of design systems events, and educational content creator focused on design tokens, design-to-development processes, and systems thinking. She's got a knack for turning intimidating technology into approachable, actionable workflows and has built a reputation in the design systems community for making people laugh while sharing her future-friendly design pro tips, real-world workflows, epic fails, and radical honesty about what not to do.LinksSam's website: https://samiam.design/Sam's set, Promise Cherry Beach, June 12, 2022: https://soundcloud.com/ilovepromise/aubade-promise-cherry-beach-june-12-2022Sam's set, Solar Seance, Club Rapture: https://soundcloud.com/aubade_samiam/ssraptureCreditsCover design by Raquel Breternitz.

US equities fall away on rising risks

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2026 5:08

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-Iran conflict seems to be intensifying. Market responses don't reflect that yet however. In the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 245,000 but this was less of a rise than seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels. US retail sales were up a healthy +8.4% in June from a year ago but virtually unchanged from May. If you take out cars and petrol, then the rise is +5.7% from a year ago, and a fall from May. Still good, but boosted by their claimed +3.5% inflation. Online sales of electronics goods were particularly strong, suggesting buyers were looking to get ahead of tariff and trade impacts. Meanwhile, new order levels reported in the Philly Fed's July factory survey were impressive. But this came with a fall-away in sentiment about the future, and with unusually high input cost inflation. More signs of stockpiling behaviour. And US petrol prices are rising again. US homebuilder sentiment fell in July in the NAHB survey. Not by a lot, but keeping it in the depressed state this sector has been in since the pandemic. They have an input cost problem too. The other side of this industry is in lackluster conditions too. Pending home sales fell in June from May, and came in slightly lower than year-ago levels. That was their biggest retreat in six months. The weakness was broad based across the whole country. In Canada, their June housing starts were -13% lower than year-ago levels. These were weak in Vancouver with a big fall-off in multiunit construction, but quite strong in Toronto. In Korea, their central bank raised its policy rate yesterday, raising it from 2.5% to 2.75%. This was as expected however. It was their first rise in more than three years as it grapples with inflationary pressure at least partially stemming from a faster economic expansion. Their previous change was a cut of -25 bps in May 2025. In Australia, the respected Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has come in with a 4.7% July result after it's 5.5% in June after topping out at 5.9% in April. Australia's official inflation was 4.0% in May after topping out at 4.2% in April. Their June CPI is due to be released on Wednesday, July 29. Global container freight rates stayed very high last week even though they dipped -2% from the prior week. That leaves them +75% higher than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bulk freight rates were little-changed over the past week to be +55% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 down -0.7% and the Nasdaq down -1.6%. The price of gold has fallen to US$3984/oz, down -US$78 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$55.50/oz, down -US$2 from yesterday. Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 8 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 18 entering for new loads (5 dark) and almost all Iran-linked. More ships are exiting the Red Sea now, but much fewer want to enter. This rush out may be because Iran has told the Houthis to close the waterway if the US strikes Iran's civilian electricity network. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just over 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,111 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Running on empty?

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2026 6:36

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is a growing sense that the world is close to running on empty the longer the US-Iran flareup carries on. But markets are ignoring that risk. In the US producer prices fell -0.3% in June from May, marking the first decline since August 2025 and an unexpected dip. A sharp decline in energy prices is getting the credit and the fact that energy risks are still around is being ignored. From a year ago US PPI was up +5.5%. Without that, the core index rose +0.2%, to be +4.7% higher than a year ago. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 10 points to +15.6 in July 2026, signaling a significant pickup in business activity across New York State. Price increases remained elevated and supply availability continued to worsen, they said. The region is in a stockpiling mode, still expecting more cost impacts from tariffs. (Although the New York Fed boss indicated they are looking through these likely impacts. However, not every Fed member is so sanguine.) The July Fed Beige Book reported "modest to moderate" activity, with prices rising, with greater price sensitivity among consumers. US crude stocks fell again although not be as much as was expected this week. Their strategic reserves show not letup in their draining track. Across the northern border, the Bank of Canada left the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision in July 2026, and as expected. But they are seeing an improved economic outlook, however. Across the Pacific and after impressing in April, Japanese machinery orders took an outsized tumble in May. down -12.4% from April and far worse than market forecasts for a -4.2% decline. It seems a broad-based weakness in business investment is setting in. Orders from manufacturers dropped -14.9% (vs 5.1% in April), while non-manufacturing orders fell -9.3% (vs 6.7%). Chinese house prices are still falling but at a slower pace now as background support measures and market cleanup activity is putting a floor under this weakness. China's new home prices across 70 cities fell -3.3% in June from a year ago, the mildest contraction since February. Shanghai was a standout with a +3.1% rise on that same basis, the only one with a measurable gain. Meanwhile, pre-owned home sales prices fell almost -6% on the same basis, and resale prices in Shanghai were negative too. Retail sales in China were up +1.0% in June from a year ago, restrained in large part by shrinking retail sales of cars. Without that, sales would have been up +3.0%, just enough to be higher than their CPI inflation. Industrial production in China rose +5.3% in June, its fastest pace in three months. Meanwhile, electricity production, which some think is a more realistic indicator of industrial activity because it is less susceptible to regional manipulation, rose +2.0% in June from the same month a year ago. Through all of this, China said its economic activity was up +4.3% in June from Q2-2025. This was slower than the +5.0% in Q1-2026 and lower than the anticipated +4.5% that analysts had forecast. And it is its slowest since Q4-2022, and prior to that pandemic interruption, the slowest since 1990. The uneven results posted today won't reassure Beijing. Markets are thinking they will announce new stimulus soon. China's new bank lending came in at ¥1.61 tln in June, much more than the very weak ¥520 bln in May, but well below both year-ago levels and the expected ¥2 tln rise. Bank debt growth typically accelerates in June as banks step up lending activity to meet their quarterly targets, but loan demand remains subdued in 2026. This is adding to expectations of new stimulus measures from Beijing. Yesterday's news of the arrival of bird flu in New Zealand likely shows that Australia's monitoring is likely very inadequate. They say Australia has 14 confirmed detections of H5 bird flu in wild birds. There are eight confirmed in Western Australia, five in South Australia and one in New South Wales. These are probably just the tip of the iceberg. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has firmed slightly to US$4061/oz, little-changed from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have risen overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 15 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (9 dark) and most Iran-linked. More ships are crossing the Red Sea as well. The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at just under 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +40 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,950 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

442. Subir stock poco a poco: la estrategia que vende más

stock subir vende la estrategia shutterstock

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2026 48:57

En este episodio nos sentamos a hablar de algo que casi nadie cuenta: por qué NO conviene subir toda una sesión de golpe, cómo repartir las subidas para que tus propias fotos no compitan entre sí, y por qué guardarte parte del material para dentro de un año puede darte más ventas. Hablamos también de calidad vs. cantidad al disparar, de invertir en producciones, de contenido real e inclusivo… y de paso os contamos que hemos ganado un premio en el concurso SSTK Fashion de Shutterstock.

I went behind the scenes on a luxury steam train holiday to the Alps!

Green Signals

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2026 37:58

When I was offered the opportunity to go behind the scenes on a Belle Trains luxury steam train holiday headed to the Alps, I jumped at the chance. Getting up close and personal with some huge steam locomotives, experiencing an abundance of delicious food, being looked after by some of the friendliest and most efficient staff I've ever come across… and the views. Well, breathtaking doesn't really do them justice. THIS was going to be the trip of a lifetime.Booking Details re The Emerald Isle BelleFull details can be found on the Belle Trains website at: https://www.belletrains.co.uk/emerald-belle-2027If you have any questions, would like to request a physical copy of the Emerald Isle Belle brochure or would like to book with Belle Trains, please contact the team at enquiries@belletrains.co.uk or by calling +44 1284 330123, Monday-Friday, 09.30 – 16.30 (UK Time).Footage of the steam train in Ireland is: Shutterstock.com / BlackBoxGuildGreen Signals Productions Limited was commissioned to produce this film by Belle Trains Limited. Our tickets and expenses were paid for by them.Notwithstanding that, the opinions expressed by us in the film are our own.Membership: If you want to see even more from Green Signals, including exclusive content, become a member and support the channel further too.YouTube -⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@GreenSignals/join⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon -⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/GreenSignals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Green Signals: Website -⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.greensignals.org⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Merchandise - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://greensignals.etsy.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Newsletter -⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.greensignals.org/#mailing-list⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow: X (Twitter) -⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/greensignallers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn -⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/green-signals-productions-ltd⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Important notes:Green Signals Productions Limited was commissioned to produce the Alpine Belle film by Belle Trains Limited. Our tickets and expenses were paid for by them.Notwithstanding that, the opinions expressed by us in the film are our own. You can view our legal disclaimer, copyright information and privacy policy here - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.greensignals.org/legal/⁠⁠

holiday ireland behind the scenes newsletter luxury footage merchandise alps shutterstock uk time steam train

Trump backs down on Hormuz tolls

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2026 6:25

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more Trump flip-flops in haphazard moves that show Trump has no strategy or exit plan from the mess he created in the Middle East. But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight and prices mostly dipped from last week's full event. Both butter and SMP dipped -0.4%, but the exception was WMP which rose +0.3%. The recently higher NZD has made those changes less in local currency, reinforcing the Fonterra payout reduction. Elsewhere, the US released its June CPI result with a somewhat surprising dip with it falling to 3.5% after May's three year high 4.2%. Markets had expected a lesser dip to 3.8%. The biggest retreat was the -9.7% fall in petrol prices (although this monitoring only recorded a +6.8% fall). Inflation was on the mind of Fed speakers overnight, especially Kevin Warsh, who reiterated his commitment to fighting inflation saying he had "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". But he had no details or plans on how he is to tackle inflation. He was presenting the Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The Fed's target is inflation at 2% and it has been above that for 63 consecutive months now, so the credibility of achieving that target is not high. The ADP weekly private jobs monitoring fell again, now under +20,000 and the first time it has reported a gain that low since mid-March. It has been tracking lower since early May. The lower fuel costs shifted the needle in the NFIB sentiment survey for SMEs, resulting in a less-negative June result. But these same respondents cited inflation as their biggest threat, the highest since October 2024. Yesterday, big US banks reported strong earnings gains, helped by their role in the Big Tech IPOs and other tech fundraising. Singapore said its economic activity was +5.7% higher in Q2-2026 than in the same quarter in 2025. While this was a bit less than the +6.3% first quarter result, it was above the expected +5.5% outcome. China said its June exports were up a remarkable +27% from the same month a year ago, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of the expected inflationary effects of upcoming producer price inflation from the Middle East shocks, and by China's push to export cars, and far more than the +18% expected. It also said its imports were +36% higher than a year ago, driven by crude oil imports. That all meant that it had a near record trade surplus of +US$126 bln in June, only exceeded by the January 2025 +US$136 bln in that month. In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey became less pessimistic in July, mainly because their fuel price pressures eased - and their interest rate fears moderated as well. Job loss concerns eased too. But consumers remained gloomy about the economy overall and that meant they don't think now is a good time to buy a major appliance. And, although it recovered somewhat from very low levels, Aussies are still very uncertain where their housing market is going. The story was quite similar for business sentiment in July as reported by the NAB survey. However, this one reported a sharper-than-expected improvement even if it is still negative. Price pressures also moderated, with input price growth slowing to its weakest pace since February and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4059/oz, up +US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1.5o from yesterday at just on US$78.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 3 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and all of those tied to Iran (1 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). No-one was prepared to pay Trump's tolls, so Trump backed down (in a weird rambling announcement), less than 24 hours after announcing the levies. It is unknown if any are paying Iran's tolls. Plans to build pipelines to avoid the area are getting new momentum now. So Iran is shifting its focus to blockading the Red Sea at Yemen. The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is up +50 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,477 and up +4.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

The oil price jumps on latest tension

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2026 4:27

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that at the close of business today in New York, the Q2-2026 earnings season will kick off with major banks JP Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo leading the pack. They will be reporting into a market that is jittery over the rebounding crisis in the Middle East. Adding to the confusion, Trump said the US is imposing a 20% toll on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That will close all traffic except Iranian-linked vessels. Separately, yesterday tech stocks from New York to Shanghai all took a beating. Meanwhile, US Fed governor Waller spoke today, emphasising he is watching the inflation signals closely and warning that more rate hikes may be necessary. He warned about the impact of "tariffs, energy prices, and spillovers from demand for the AI buildout". But he is wary of recent history, acknowledging that this evolving situation has different risks and "we shouldn't fight the last war" on inflation. We are seeing a long-time dove turning hawkish on the need for action on inflation. That comes as the US federal government posted a much wider deficit than expected, boosted by tariff refunds. Over the past nine months, that deficit has swelled to -US$1.36 tln on track for another unsustainable record, only one Trump could engineer with his dodgy fiscal strategies. In India, CPI inflation rose to 4.4% in June, its highest since December 2024 and slightly more than expected. Food prices rose +5.3% with tomato prices up almost a third on this year-on-year basis. In China, their climate and weather authorities are warning that there is an elevated chance of more serious storms this year. They have just had their first major one, and they say more than six national emergency level storms are expected before the end of their summer. In Australia, we should probably note that the Xero CEO has sold all her own shares in the company, a somewhat startling signal. Meanwhile OPEC is also turning glum. Their July Monthly Oil Market Report lowered the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 bpd, citing economic instability from the geopolitical conflict. They see reduced demand in major markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.61%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$3994/oz, down -US$126/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$6 from yesterday at just on US$77/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$82/bbl. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 6 crude tankers (1) and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and 5 of those tied to Iran (0 dark with transponders off) but only 5 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday at just under 57.6 USc. But against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.5 which is the same as this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,935 and down -3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

'Strategy' beating 'firepower'

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2026 7:07

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Hormuz Strait is effectively shut again with Iran's 'strategy' winning against the US 'firepower'. It is hard to think of any other politician trashing their advantage perceptions so completely. There will be long historical echoes from all this ineffective breast-beating. But elsewhere and locally, this week will bring updates to our migration and travel data, indicators of June retail activity, and early signals of June inflation. We will also get an look at business sentiment, and likely get the June REINZ update. In Australia, they will chime in with their June labour market updates, after updates for consumer and business sentiment. In the US, apart from Trump's wars, investors will turn their attention to the Q2 earnings season, and a steady stream on important economic data that includes their CPI, retail sales and consumer sentiment updates. Fed boss Warsh will be briefing Congress and that will be interesting too, especially about his views on 'reform'. Canada will be reviewing their central bank's policy rate this week, although no change from the 2.25% is anticipated In Japan, it will be about machinery orders and industrial production with eyes also firmly focused on their currency - which will also impact their fast-rising interest rates. In China, it will be a busy week of June economic data releases including for trade, and debt, and highlighted by their Q2-2026 GDP growth rate. Over the weekend, in the fiercely competitive Chinese car market, they reported 2.8 mln vehicle sales in June which was somewhat unexpected because a dip from May was anticipated. But it is a -3% dip from year-ago June sales levels. That pushes their twelve month sales to 33.8 mln units, up from 33.0 mln in the prior equivalent year. Car exports rose above 1 mln units in June, the first time that level has been achieved as it floods global markets. It is storm season in China again, and severe flooding has hit a number of regions, enough to concentrate minds in Beijing. Elsewhere, China has banned the export of helium. Actually, the re-export of helium because it gets most of it from Russia. The Middle East conflict has restricted supply from there, and tech users in Europe and Asia are now in a tough spot, as are medical users everywhere. China is conserving its Russian imports for its own tech industry Japan is reporting that their producer prices rose +7.1% in June from a year ago, accelerating from an upwardly revised +6.6% increase in May and above market expectations of a +6.8% gain. It is the fastest annual increase since March 2023. Higher energy prices following supply chain disruptions linked to the war in Iran are driving this, of course. And Japan's finance minister said they want to steer their state pension funds to "substantially" increase investments in domestic assets. This brought a sharp immediate reaction in both their currency and bond markets, due to the expected size of the shift. The yen gained, or at least it halted its fall, and their bond yields fell sharply (see below). Elsewhere, in the US initial jobless claims rose by +224,500 and about what seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.767 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels. After the good May rebound, existing home sales in the US fell back to average levels, and to levels lower than a year ago. The median price is up only +1.8% from a year ago. That modest rise is less than income growth, so overall affordability is getting a chance to recover there. On Wall Street, South Korean computer chip maker SK Hynix has raised US$26.5 bln in its New York IPO, the largest ever listing by a foreign firm in the US. SK Hynix is a key supplier to AI chip giant Nvidia. In Canada, their payrolls rose a minor +18,200 in June, slightly better than the expected +10,000, and holding on to the +88,000 gain in May. The June gain was all about a strong rise in the private sector (+32,000) which consolidated the good May private sector rise (+56,000). But most of the net June gain was from part-time employment. These positive shifts in June may have something to do with hiring for the football World Cup events. Global container freight rates rose another +2% last week to be +74% higher than year-ago levels, mostly about outbound freight rates from China to the US where demand is still high. Bulk cargo freight rates pushed higher too. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +7 bps for the week. The price of gold has risen to US$4119/oz, up +US$19/oz from Saturday, but down -US$55 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$60/oz, up +50 USc from Saturday, down -US$2.50 from a week ago. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just onUS$76/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$68.50 and US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have dived sharply as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 12 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 5 of those tied to Iran (5 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, again mostly Iran-linked (3 dark). The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just over 57.6 USc, up +50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.5 which is the same as this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,084 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday, up +2.9% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

754: Frankly Asinine Questions

Grumpy Old Geeks

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2026 62:56

This week, the world finally discovers what we've been saying for years: Gen X wasn't forgotten—we were quietly keeping the entire damn machine running. New Census numbers show America's 45-to-64 crowd is shrinking fast, which means the people who know where all the bodies are buried (and why you never reboot that one production server) are disappearing without a replacement bench. Meanwhile, Meta continues its speedrun toward becoming history's most aggressively unlikeable company, staring down a potential $1.4 trillion lawsuit over social media addiction while simultaneously launching AI features that happily remix your Instagram photos unless you remember to opt out of Zuckerberg's latest privacy experiment. Because nothing says "we've learned our lesson" quite like doubling down.The AI circus somehow gets even weirder. Illinois actually passed meaningful AI safety legislation—an event so rare it qualifies as science fiction—while Sam Altman reportedly floated the idea of AI companies handing the U.S. government an ownership stake. Anthropic published another paper that's already inspiring breathless declarations that Claude is "thinking," because apparently matrix multiplication now counts as an inner monologue. Cloudflare finally decided websites shouldn't have to give away their content for free to AI crawlers, researchers discovered AI agents could consume enough electricity to make Google Search look like a bicycle generator, and Amazon's Mechanical Turk is being replaced by the very AI it spent two decades secretly training. Progress: where everyone works harder, gets paid less, and the power grid cries.Elsewhere in Tech Hell™, Waymo robotaxis turned San Francisco traffic into an even bigger parking lot, Google lost another multibillion-dollar antitrust appeal in Europe, the FCC found fresh ways to make internet bills less transparent, and Midjourney is demanding Hollywood explain its own AI habits in court. We also dig into a disturbing lawsuit involving Grok-generated abuse imagery and what it says about AI guardrails, explain how to stop Meta from feeding your Instagram into its latest AI experiments, discuss why tech workers increasingly feel AI isn't replacing them so much as making them miserable faster, and close things out with the usual Media Candy, Apps & Doodads, and library recommendations to help you survive another week inside the techno-dystopian fever dream we apparently call "the future."Sponsors:Private Internet Access - Go to GOG.Show/vpn and sign up today. For a limited time only, you can get OUR favorite VPN for as little as $2.03 a month.SetApp - With a single monthly subscription you get 240+ apps for your Mac. Go to SetApp and get started today!!!1Password - Get a great deal on the only password manager recommended by Grumpy Old Geeks! gog.show/1passwordShow notes at https://gog.show/754Watch on YouTube at https://youtu.be/xnhzMxu1JNASHOW NOTESAmerica's missing middle: The shrinking 45-64 populationMeta is facing $1.4 trillion in state lawsuits over social media addictionMeta just launched a new AI generator, Muse Image, and users are already pushing back over use of their photosIllinois Drops the Hammer on AI CompaniesOpenAI reportedly wants all AI companies to give the US government a stake in their businessesLawsuit: Man used Grok to make 7K sex images of stepdaughter, then shot himselfMidjourney wants the Hollywood studios that sued it to show the court how they use AIAnthropic Releases Paper About Claude's Mental ‘Workspace.' Don't Read It UncriticallyCloudflare will filter out web crawlers that serve AI companiesWhen It Comes to Energy Use, AI Agents Could Make Chatbots Look Like Pocket CalculatorsAmazon's ‘Artificial Artificial Intelligence' Is Being Eaten by AIDrivers Trapped for Hours in Hopeless Gridlock as Waymos Brick on Major HolidayGoogle loses final appeal over $4.7 billion EU Android antitrust fineFCC to end Biden-era rule that forces ISPs to list all their feesGetty Images is canceling its $3.7 billion Shutterstock merger due to UK restrictionsFootage Shows Cop Stalking Woman He Met on a TV Set After Surveilling Her With a License Plate ReaderMeta says it will disable the camera on its glasses if you tamper with the recording LEDMeta tests ‘super sensing' AI glasses that can capture every momentHow tech workers are feeling in 2026: a workforce splitting in twoSiloSugarDune: Part Three | Official TrailerAI golem Tilly Norwood is reportedly 'starring' in a feature-length movieLuckyNormalHow to claim a WhatsApp usernameHow to Stop Meta AI From Processing Your Instagram ContentGold Rush (First Contact) by Peter CawdronSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Renewed hot conflict queers the global economic pitch

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2026 5:50

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the oil price, and benchmark interest rates have both risen on the renewed tensions between the US and Iran. But first today, the IMF has updated its global economic forecasts, and they are virtually unchanged from the main release in April. They note the world economy's stronger-than-expected resilience to the Iran war and robust AI-related investment. They see global growth coming in at +3.0% in 2026 with the 2027 growth outlook revised up to marginally 3.4% from 3.2%. Despite the slight upgrades, the IMF warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, and the full economic impact of elevated tensions, including renewed US-Iran strikes, are still to be revealed. Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027. Australia gets little mention in this update except to note that its 2026 growth is forecast to come in at +1.9% (down -0.1%) and 2027 at +1.7% (unchanged). New Zealand gets no mention at all. For the US it is +2.3% and +2.2% for the same two year, both unchanged. For China it is +4.6% and +4.1% (marginally higher). For Japan it is +0.6% and +0.7% (little-changed). Malaysia was noted as a positive mover where their economy is projected to grow at a rate of +4.7% in 2026, benefiting from data center activity and the upturn in the global technology cycle. US mortgage applications fell again last week, especially refinance applications. US crude oil stocksactually rose last week with a modest gain which ended a ten consecutive string of declines. But their strategic oil reserve continued to fall at the same fast pace. The modest US consumer debt expansion recorded to April shrank to nothing in May, an unexpected weakness, and a significant variation from the continued expansion expected. However a one month hesitation occurs occasionally so we will need to wait for the June release to know if this is a significant indicator. The big mover was a sharp fall in credit cards and other revolving debt, also quite unexpected. The minutes of the June Fed meeting were released today, revealing that most officials broadly agreed they would need to raise interest rates if inflation remained elevated this year due to the war in the Middle East, tariffs, or strong demand from the AI-driven investment boom. And that included new boss Kevin Warsh. In Japan, their official sentiment survey of professionals recovered in June after three prior months of downbeat views In Australia, rents are rising faster, especially house rents. The increase was both stronger than seasonal norms and relatively abrupt in some cities, pointing to a step-change in pricing behaviour rather than a gradual tightening in market conditions. In a now somewhat dated update due to the renewed Middle East hot conflict, the New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index eased back in June after its April and May spikes. (Of course, with today's resumption by the US of its bombing of Iran, this is likely to flare up again in July.) The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4067/oz, down -US$78/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just on US$73.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78/bbl and up +US$4. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply in a rush to get out despite the risks and renewed uncertainties with 35 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (8 dark with transponders off) but only 16 entering for new loads (2 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,052 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because tomorrow is a public holiday in New Zealand, Matariki, we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Investors hesitate and reassess

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2026 5:22

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news renewed Hormuz attacks are raising oil prices and interest rates today, not helped by a pullback in tech stocks. But first today, there was another dairy auction overnight, a full one with new season volumes returning. But this one came in sharply lower, down -4.9% on USD terms although only a -2.5% retreat in NZD terms. Among the results, there was a notable -4.4% fall for WMP, a -7.0% fall for SMP, a -5% fall for butter and a large -12.3% fall for cheddar cheese. A few of the minor categories gained. But these falls were larger than the futures market was pricing in, so you have to say they are 'larger than expected'. While the new lower levels aren't that special in a longer perspective, the speed of the falls is concerning and analysts will be re-assessing their payout forecasts. In the US, the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose in July to a better than expected level but it is still well below the average over the past year and below its long term norm. Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations rose when a small dip was anticipated. It is now at 3.7%, its highest since September 2023 and is rising even though expectations for lower petrol prices are included in these results. The weekly private jobs growth monitoring by ADP shows a smaller rise ;last week than they have recorded in the past 15 week, since mid-March in fact. And the trend has been down for seven straight weeks. This is consistent with the easing that the official non-farm payrolls report showed for June. The US Logistics Managers Index rose again in June and to its highest since March 2022, driven by three factors; anticipation of more tariff action from Trump, stockpiling to get ahead of inflation, and an expectation that the end of year retail season will be 'normal'. US exports weakened in May and imports rose in the same time in the broader trade result that includes both goods and services, delivering a sharp rise in their deficit and their highest in over a year. This result matched the recent report of merchandise trade but brings their services trade into the picture. Meanwhile Canada reported rising exports and stable imports to give them a larger trade surplus in May. China said its foreign exchange reserves dipped slightly in June from their unusually high May levels. Part of this was due to the retreat in the gold price. But their central bank continued its gold-buying streak for a 20th month, with reserves reaching 75.44 million troy ounces by June's end, up from 74.96 million in May. China's excavator sales are rebounding, up by more than a third in June from a year ago, driven by major projects. New data out yesterday paints a much improved picture for Japanese household spending in May as households started to get their mojo back. And don't overlook that this was in the middle of the Trump Gulf War uncertainties. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has slipped to US$4146/oz, down -US$13/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$61/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply despite renewed uncertainties with 27 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) but only 18 entering for new loads (4 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,063 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

OCEANS MONTH! 143. The Ocean Declares | Horseshoe Crabs, Hospitality & Creatureliness

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 25, 2026 49:51 Transcription Available

When the wind is just right, on a small beach in Titusville, Florida, horseshoe crabs crawl out of the water and onto the beach to lay their eggs. Jim and Colin joined up with two marine biologists—Bob Sluka who works with A Rocha, a Christian conservation organization and Margaret Miller, a coral biologist who works with SECORE International—and three A Rocha interns to survey the horseshoe crabs. That experience began an exploration into paying attention to many of the creatures that surround us, extending hospitality, and learning from the creatures, even from the ocean itself, about how we might better worship the creator of it all. Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Vesper Tapes, Klimenko Music, Evergreen, High Street Music, Magentize Music, & Sirius Music, courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc. Links and Resources: Learn about A Rocha Do your own nurdle hunt Atlantic Article about Synthetic alternatives to LAL Radiolab Episode about Horseshoe Crabs Listen to our most recent episode about A Rocha work in Oahu, Hawaii

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פרק 355: כלכלת על חלל

חיות כיס Hayot Kiss

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2026 45:14

פעם החלל היה מגרש המשחקים של ממשלות. היום אלה אילון מאסק, ג׳ף בזוס וחברות פרטיות שמובילים את המירוץ ומגלגלים ממנו מיליארדים. איך עושים ביזנס מהחלל, האם האנושות באמת בדרך לירח, כמה מהחזון הזה הוא הייפ וכמה ממנו קורה כבר עכשיו - ואיפה ישראל נכנסת לתמונה?מגיש: שאול אמסטרדמסקי; עורכת: ליהיא צדוק; מפיק: טל נרונסקי; עורך סאונד: טל וניג; תמונה: Shutterstockמרואיינים: תמיר שחר, הילה חדד חמלניק, רן לבנהSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

shutterstock

OCEANS MONTH! 183. Cool Creatures | Giant Pacific Octopus

soul secrets creator ocean giant pacific creatures octopus shutterstock octopuses sy montgomery new england aquarium breakmaster cylinder

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2026 41:01 Transcription Available

Octopuses and humans have been evolving separately for more than 500 million years, but still, we have a few things in common. We explore what this means about the octopus, what it means about humans, and what it tells us about the Creator of All Things. As we dive into the science of octopus cognition and behavior we find the questions get more and more interesting. To help us sort through it, we are joined by Sy Montgomery (author of Soul of an Octopus and Secrets of the Octopus) who introduced us to two giant Pacific Octopuses at the New England Aquarium. Thanks to the New England Aquarium for hosting our visit. Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Evan MacDonald, Mattijs Muller, Titan Sound, Klimenko Music, Ricky Bombino, Sirius Music, Northern Points, and Paradiso Music courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc. This episode originally aired on March 13, 2025

438. Retiro stockero en el Delta y lo que se vende en julio

The Next 100 Days Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2026 28:28

Carles lleva meses buscando. Vendió su casa en Costa Rica, recorrió la zona del Delta del Ebro y encontró lo que buscaba: una finca de 3.500m² con 7 habitaciones, piscina, sauna, jacuzzi, dos salas de coworking y taller de carpintería... a tres minutos y medio del mar. La reforma arranca el 20 de junio y los miembros de la Academia Stock tienen plaza para venir cuando quieran. A partir de agosto, encuentros y talleres de stock en este espacio para toda la comunidad. También repasamos el briefing de tendencias de julio que Shutterstock acaba de publicar: envejecimiento multigeneracional, timelapse y contenido vintage — con ideas concretas de cómo producirlo todo. Lista de espera de la Academia → https://stockeros.com/lista-de-espera/

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#529 - RJ Talyor - AI for eCommerce

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026 44:14

RJ Talyor is the Founder and CEO of Backstroke a AI for eCommerce generative content platform for email marketers. Instantly create on-brand, high-performing email subject lines, preview text, mobile push notifications, and SMS messages.Summary of PodcastPodcast introduction and guest backgroundGraham and Kevin introduce the Next 100 Days Podcast and welcome RJ Talyor from Indianapolis. RJ describes Indianapolis as offering the best of a big city with a small-city feel, with about a million people, great sports, culture, food, and good cost of living. He has traveled extensively but always enjoys returning home.Backstroke's AI email generation platformRJ introduces Backstroke.com, which generates performant email campaigns for e-commerce retailers selling clothes, pet food, furniture, and other products online and in-store. E-commerce brands typically expect 20-50% of revenue from email marketing while sending 3-5+ emails weekly, with customers spending 8-12 hours per campaign. Backstroke reduces this to approximately 15 minutes while personalising content so each customer receives a different message tailored to their interests and behaviour.Personalisation through data and engagement Backstroke personalises emails using multiple data layers: subscriber status, past engagement (opens, clicks, conversions), and appended third-party data revealing demographics like age, location, and gender. When additional data is unavailable, the platform uses progressive profiling—analysing engagement patterns to infer preferences. For example, if a customer consistently clicks on men's content over women's content, or prefers dark-coloured shirts over light ones, AI identifies these patterns to drive personalisation, which is more effective than manual analysis.Real-world personalisation: from negative to advocateGraham shares a personal story about Son of a Tailor, a Portuguese apparel brand, where his initial experience was poor—they sent him a shirt too short for his frame. However, the company responded exceptionally well, ultimately creating a monogrammed, high-quality shirt that transformed him into an advocate. RJ explains this is valuable data: AI can flag customers who experienced negative-to-positive journeys as potential super-fans or loyalty advocates, a pattern most marketers miss because they lack time to identify such nuanced customer experiences.AI pattern recognition beyond traditional metricsTraditional RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) models reduce customers to transactional data, but AI can extract signal from unstructured data to identify complex patterns. For instance, AI can recognize when a customer buys different sizes (suggesting purchases for others) or when multiple preferences exist within one account—like RJ's Spotify feed where his children's music preferences mix with his own. AI discerns these overlapping patterns that aren't immediately obvious to humans, enabling more sophisticated segmentation.Team expertise and company historyRJ co-founded Backstroke with his wife Allison, who holds a PhD in deep data analysis and chemical reagents, bringing statistical rigour and predictive modelling expertise. RJ's background includes starting Pattern89 in 2016, an AI company predicting Instagram and Facebook clicks using computer vision and natural language processing, which he sold to Shutterstock. Many Pattern89 team members joined Backstroke, bringing 10 years of AI-based marketing experience, while the team continuously innovates with new foundational models from Anthropic and OpenAI.Implementation results and Surge featureBackstroke achieves an average 30% uplift in conversion rates for new clients. Implementation typically takes about a month for full transformation, but recognising customer demand for faster results, the company launched "Surge," enabling campaigns to launch in 48 hours. This rapid-deployment feature demonstrates predictive capabilities quickly, satisfying customers who want immediate proof before committing to full onboarding.Email variants and human approval at scaleWhile technically capable of generating 10,000+ unique email variants, Backstroke has found that customers require human review of every variant version. Current implementations range from 60-100 variants, with combinations of hero images, subject lines, and templates creating exponential possibilities. The company is building QA agents to enable scaling to millions of variants while maintaining human oversight, recognizing that creative teams ultimately bear responsibility for brand representation.Brand guidelines versus performance metricsA fundamental tension exists between brand teams (who enforce guidelines like "models must face forward" or "only use this colour") and performance marketers (who know "shirts perform better laid on a bed than on a human"). RJ explains this is often gut-feel decision-making based on outdated tests—teams cite tests from a year ago by employees who've since left, creating stale guidelines. AI enables rapid testing of creative variations to identify incremental opportunities, but requires organisational willingness to experiment beyond established brand rules.Customer selection philosophyRather than trying to convince resistant customers to embrace AI, RJ focuses on the "one in 10" truly innovative marketers willing to change. He learned from his previous business that most prospects claim interest but quickly reveal organizational barriers requiring approvals. His strategy is to identify customers genuinely committed to transformation and willing to pay, directing others to resources instead. This approach conserves energy for high-potential partnerships where AI can deliver real impact.Backstroke's core value propositionBackstroke solves the "what" problem: what content, subject line, preview, template, hero image, product display, and offer to send to each person. The platform knows that 46% of clicks occur in the first 400 pixels, so it optimizes that space differently for men versus women, loyal customers versus new ones, and geographic regions. This focused specialization on content optimization is Backstroke's primary value, distinct from solving "when" (send time) or "who" (segmentation) problems.Practical tips for email marketersFor marketers using standard LLMs without specialised platforms, RJ recommends uploading all previous email data and creative assets, then asking the machine to identify winning creative dimensions. This approach reveals patterns in subject lines, imagery, copy length, and offers without requiring subscriber-level analysis, enabling better-than-average results for those without access to specialised tools.Email frequency paradox and engagementKevin raises frustration with receiving excessive emails from companies he likes, asking if AI can enable sending less email while achieving better results. RJ explains that higher engagement with personalised content could theoretically reduce frequency, but email is fundamentally a frequency game—brands send multiple emails weekly to stay top-of-inbox when customers are ready to buy. However, deliverability depends on engagement (opens, clicks), so sending irrelevant content backfires. Backstroke solves the "what" problem, but send-time optimisation and segmentation (the "when" and "who") remain separate challenges.Market focus and customer examples Backstroke focuses exclusively on B2C e-commerce in North America due to language complexity and GDPR privacy requirements in Europe. The platform serves impulse-purchase categories (apparel, furniture, bedding) differently than considered purchases (mattresses, cars), with separate trained models for each. Notable customers include Third Love (women's intimates), Cozy Earth (bedding), Helix (mattresses), and Emile Henry (cookware), representing the apparel and home goods verticals where Backstroke has developed deep expertise.Future roadmap: predictive marketing agentsRJ's 18-month roadmap focuses on building predictive marketing agents that complete marketing tasks generatively while humans serve as brand stewards and strategists. This vision extends beyond email to SMS, apps, and landing pages, with personalisation as a core feature. Graham notes the challenge of making such systems intuitive enough for non-technical users, reflecting the broader industry shift toward AI-augmented rather than AI-replaced marketing roles.European expansion and compliance strategyWhile Backstroke is currently North America-focused, RJ is open to European partnerships but wants to be proactive about compliance. GDPR itself isn't a blocker, but European customers require security documentation and certifications that Backstroke hasn't yet obtained. The company recently achieved SOC 2 compliance (required by enterprise businesses) and plans to secure necessary privacy certifications before entering European markets, avoiding disqualification during sales cycles.Podcast analysis and key takeawaysIn the wrap-up, RJ praises the podcast for getting past fluff into real marketing challenges, appreciating the nitty-gritty discussion of how marketers actually work. Graham and Kevin reflect that the conversation revealed AI's potential to solve the "what" problem while highlighting remaining challenges in "when" and "who" decisions. They note that Kevin's observation about sending less email...

OCEANS MONTH! 145. Dawn Wright | A Divine Abyss

auto practices renewal ftc cancellation shutterstock

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 53:00 Transcription Available

In the summer of 2022 Dawn Wright became only the 27th person ever, the fifth woman, and the first Black person to descend into the deepest part of the ocean, a place called Challenger Deep. As a scientist, Dawn has been studying and helping to map the depths of the ocean, but being there in person uncovered a new dimension and deepened her connection with the mysterious underwater world. In the episode, Colin and Dawn talk about the science of mapping, the world of deep sea submersibles, and how finding trash in the most remote places of our planet might spark a renewed sense of stewardship for all of God's creation. Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Nick Petrov, courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc. Additional Resources: Story map of Dawn's Challenger Deep Dive GIS Map of Challenger Deep Dive Animated video of Alvin Dive This episode originally aired on May 18, 2023

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Shutterstock to Pay $35 Million Over Auto‑Renewal and Cancellation Practices

Ad Law Access Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 3:19

What can a $35 million settlement teach companies about subscription billing, auto-renewals, and cancellation practices? In this episode, we unpack the FTC's case against Shutterstock, which resulted in one of the agency's largest recent settlements over alleged negative option marketing violations. The complaint alleges that Shutterstock failed to clearly disclose automatic renewals and cancellation fees, did not obtain consumers' express informed consent for recurring charges, and made it unnecessarily difficult to cancel subscriptions. As regulators continue to focus on auto-renewal programs, recurring billing, and “click-to-cancel” principles, the case serves as a powerful reminder that businesses must ensure material terms are clear, consent is meaningful, and cancellation is as straightforward as enrollment. Hosted by Simone Roach. Based on a blog post by Gonzalo E. Mon.

437. Shutterstock multada con 35M y el futuro de las agencias stock

Baleine sous Gravillon (BSG)

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2026 38:51

Hoy es el ÚLTIMO DÍA del Pack Audiovisual 2026 26 expertos +300h de contenido Solo 89€. Cierra esta noche a las 23:59 sin prórroga → https://go.hotmart.com/K105730657K/ ________________ Esta semana el podcast de noticias que estabas esperando. Vuelve Jordi después de mucho tiempo, y entre los dos repasamos todo lo que está pasando en el mundo del stock: la multa de 35 millones de dólares que acaba de recibir Shutterstock de la FTC por prácticas engañosas con sus suscriptores, el estado actual de la fusión Getty-Shutterstock y lo que significa para nosotros, el rebranding de Freepik a Magnific, pagos extra de Envato por acuerdos de licencia con terceros y el cambio fiscal importantísimo del formulario W8B. Y de propina: el concurso Fashion de Shutterstock con premios en metálico, y un vistazo a cómo Jordi sigue produciendo stock a pesar de llevar meses con la rodilla operada. ________________ Hoy es el ÚLTIMO DÍA del Pack Audiovisual 2026 26 expertos +300h de contenido Solo 89€. Cierra esta noche a las 23:59 sin prórroga → https://go.hotmart.com/K105730657K/

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S07E156 L'Ours brun 4/6 : Les bons gestes en cas de rencontre (Rémi Dupouy)

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2026 15:36

Après une série consacrée aux races anciennes et une deuxième aux animaux de la basse-cour, l'excellent naturaliste et éleveur-documentariste Rémi Dupouy (co-auteur avec Yann Arthus-Bertrand de Vivant en 2022, entre-autres) est de retour pour 6 nouveaux épisodes dédiés à l'un de ses animaux fétiches : l'Ours brun. Originaire de Gascogne, Rémi connaît particulièrement bien cet "autre de l'Homme", aujourd'hui présent en France exclusivement dans les Pyrénées. Cette série est l'occasion pour lui de nous faire (re)découvrir cet animal qui fascine autant qu'il inquiète, et ce depuis des millénaires...Que faire si l'on croise l'Ours brun dans la nature ? Si certaines rencontres (très peu au passage) ont malheureusement résulté en la mort d'humains, il est plutôt aisé de se retrouver nez à nez avec un ours sans le moindre dénouement tragique, ces grosses peluches préférant éviter au maximum les confrontations violentes.Les spécialistes recommandent le respect de 4 simples règles en cas d'observation de nos amis ursins :1 Rester calme.2 Signaler sa présence à l'ours, par exemple en parlant tranquillement.3 Ne pas s'approcher.4 Ne pas courir, sous risque que l'ours ne vous prenne pour une proie.Vous verrez, en cas d'application de ces 4 règles, l'animal passera son chemin tranquillement voire... prendra la fuite ! En tous les cas, si l'un d'entre nous craint le plus l'autre, c'est bien de l'ours dont il s'agit.___

The Real Reason Your Revenue Team Is Failing/Bridget Winston - Metrics, Cheetahs, B2B+B2C ~ Spark of Ages Ep 65

Spark of Ages

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2026 61:29 Transcription Available

We sit down with Bridget Winston to unpack what separates a real Chief Revenue Officer from a bookings-focused sales leader, and why the org chart tells you the truth faster than the job title. We get practical about SaaS metrics, AI-driven go-to-market, and the leadership habits that keep teams performing as the playbook keeps changing.• Evaluating a CRO remit by reporting lines and revenue accountability• Using GRR and NRR to diagnose product-market fit and ICP clarity• Treating revenue as a lagging indicator of customer centricity• Preparing for LLM-driven discovery with brand, PR, and earned media• Testing AI tools that shrink territory and quota planning cycles• Shifting budget from paid ads to community-led growth and local events• Turning customer testimonials into repeatable social proof loops• Managing humans and AI agents with specific, camera-ready feedback• Fixing incentives and systems before blaming the team• Creating urgency with day-five impact expectations instead of tired 30-60-90 plansYour org chart can tell you whether you're hiring a true Chief Revenue Officer or just renaming a VP of Sales. We sit down with Bridget Winston, CRO at Patient Now and a three-time CRO, to get brutally clear on what revenue ownership actually means and why “bookings” is a dangerous north star when retention and expansion are what compound.We dig into the SaaS metrics that expose reality fast: GRR, NRR, LTV to CAC, and how boards interpret dashboards when product-market fit and ideal customer profile are still shaky. Bridget shares a sharp reframing that stuck with us: revenue is a lagging indicator of customer centricity. From there, we zoom out to the “SaaS-pocalypse” conversation and what happens to pricing, planning cycles, and revenue per employee as AI turns some companies into dinosaurs and others into cheetahs.Then we get tactical about the LLM era of B2B discovery. If buyers are finding software through ChatGPT-style answers, Reddit threads, G2-style reviews, and YouTube, we need consumer-grade brand building, PR, and community-led growth that creates earned media AI can't ignore. Bridget also breaks down AI tools she's used to compress territory planning and quota work from months to weeks, plus AI coaching that improves call quality and handoffs without blowing up day-to-day operations.We even take a fun detour into Spark Tank wine trivia, then bring it back to leadership: how to give feedback with real specificity, fix systems before blaming people, and set expectations for day-one impact. Subscribe, share this with a revenue leader, and leave a review so more builders can find the show.Bridget Winston: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bridgetwinston/Bridget Winston is the Chief Revenue Officer at PatientNow, leading go-to-market and customer-facing teams across a rapidly growing vertical SaaS platform in the fast-expanding $20 billion aesthetics and wellness industry. A three-time CRO with over 20 years of experience, Bridget was formerly the CRO at Chief, where she led membership growth and helped the company reach a $1.1 billion valuation. During her tenure, Chief was recognized by TIME as one of the 100 Most Influential Companies and by Fast Company as one of the Most Innovative Companies. Before that, Bridget served as the CRO at Shutterstock, growing revenue to $300 million.Website: https://www.position2.com/podcast/Rajiv Parikh: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rajivparikh/Email us with any feedback for the show: sparkofages.podcast@position2.com

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OCEANS MONTH! 211. Cool Creatures | Coral

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2026 40:23 Transcription Available

Coral reefs are easy to mistake for rock or plant life. But corals are animals—colonies of tiny polyps living in partnership with algae, building vast reef structures over generations. They are complicated creatures and they stretch our normal categories for living things. In this episode, we try to really get a grasp on this creature, with the help of coral biologists, writers, filmmakers and those who have been working to care for corals as they face many challenges. These experts see coral not just as an individual creature, but as a community—one built through symbiosis, cooperation, grief, and hope. Along the way, the episode wrestles with climate change, extinction, restoration, and the spiritual weight of loving something vulnerable enough to disappear within a lifetime. Coral may look like rock from a distance. Up close, it becomes something much harder to categorize—and much harder to forget. Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Kyle Booth, Pink Marble, Ricky Bombino, Simba Music, Mattijs Muller, & Pavel Yudin, courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc. Links and Resources: Learn about the work at the Frost Aquarium Reef Keepers Film and Trailer Rachel Jordan's Website and Book Learn about the work at SECORE International

Inspired Leadership: Agility Is The New Stability

Inspired!

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2026 26:55

Host Jaime Klein sits down with Sara Birmingham, Chief People Officer at Shutterstock, to discuss what modern leadership requires in a rapidly changing workplace. Their conversation explores empathy, authenticity, navigating competing priorities, and using AI to enhance human potential, all while embracing Sara's belief that agility is the new stability.

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Season 4 Episode 8: Freedom To Fail

The Longer Game

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2026 36:44

Humans have a tendency to shy away from failure, and for good reason. It hurts. It could cost us our jobs. But what if on the other side of that failure lived an innovation that drove amazing change? Maybe we'd think about failure differently. We think so. R.J. Talyor, CEO & Founder of Backstroke, joins us on this episode to talk about his favorite subject: failure. "Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it." — Johann Wolfgang von Goethe. Walt Disney also said, "If you can dream it, you can do it." The current economy surrounding AI has a lot of hype but also a lot of potential. There is this potential for us to leverage AI to allow us to be more human, yet we tend to focus on the dark side where humans are no longer needed. Sure, change is coming. People will lose jobs or remain out of work because of AI tech implementation. But could there be more that lives on the other side of that? We think so. Grab your goggles and swim cap and let's dive right into it.What they coverAI has evolved dramatically from the 1950s to where we are now in the world of generative AI. It's enabled us to do things better & faster.All the AI hype about job replacement and destruction is an alamarist signaling for attention. The reality is change is on the horizon and there will be job loss but the potential is incredible.Beyond the AI hype is true creativity again. AI allows us to take the things machines can do well off our plates and truly lean into our humanness, i.e. creating art or building relationships.AI needs a why and an end goal to truly be functional. You can't just implement AI technology. You need to know why you're doing it and what you hope to achieve at the end of it for it to truly be a successful project.The Longer Game explores the future of retail across Amazon, ecommerce, and brick-and-mortar.The goal is simple: help brands grow by understanding how all channels work together.Retail is evolving. The brands that win are the ones willing to adapt.Subscribe to stay updated on new episodes.Learn more: https://thelongergame.comAbout the Guest: R. J. Talyor is a leading voice in email marketing and applied AI. A veteran of ExactTarget, he founded Pattern89, acquired by Shutterstock in 2021. Today he is Co-Founder & CEO of Backstroke, helping brands use AI to drive 10 to 30% more revenue from email, SMS, and mobile.Connect with R.J.: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rjtalyor/ Website: https://www.backstroke.comAbout the Host:Michael Maher is Chief Idea Officer of Cartology, an Amazon-focused agency helping brands grow revenue and profitability.Connect with Michael: https://www.linkedin.com/in/immichaelmaherEmail: michael@thinkcartology.comSponsored by Cartologyhttps://thinkcartology.com

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The deal that put the dollar at the centre of the world

Behind the Money with the Financial Times

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2026 53:24

Take 730 delegates from 44 countries, plus another 2,000 or so hangers-on. House them in a remote, dilapidated hotel with holes in the roof and broken furniture. Deliver a train wagon filled with alcohol. Throw in some Russian spies, German prisoners of war, a troupe of bombshell “secretaries” and a magician. And then have the lead protagonist, the world's most famous economist, almost die of a heart attack. What does that give you? Only the most successful international monetary negotiation in history. This is the story of the Bretton Woods conference of 1944, as relayed by journalist and author Ed Conway to hosts Gillian Tett and Robin Wigglesworth. The three weeks of chaotic talks would deliver three decades of postwar peace and prosperity, and enthrone the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The discussions also nearly killed Britain's lead negotiator, John Maynard Keynes, and would later disgrace his US counterpart, Harry Dexter White.Further reading:The Summit, by Ed Conway (2015)The Economic Consequences of the Peace, by John Maynard Keynes (1919)John Maynard Keynes, biography by Robert Skidelsky in three volumes (1983-2000)Treasonable Doubt: The Harry Dexter White Spy Case, by R Bruce Craig (2004)Credits: King's College Cambridge, the IMF, Dreamstime, Getty Images, the Hulton Archive, Ullstein Bild, Bettmann, Shutterstock, the LIFE Picture Collection, Thomas D McAvoy, Alfred Eisenstaedt, and the Darling Archive.To enjoy future episodes, be sure to subscribe to The Story of Money wherever you get your podcasts, also on the show's dedicated YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@FTTheStoryOfMoneyHosts: Gillian Tett and Robin WigglesworthProducer: Laurence KnightExecutive Producers: Flo Phillips and Manuela SaragosaOriginal music: Breen TurnerBroadcast engineers: Bianca Wakeman and Petros GiuompasisPodcast Development: Laura ClarkeVideo editor: Kristen Kenyon and Josh Divney at Podcast DiscoveryLearn more at ft.com/tsom or get in touch at thestoryofmoney@ft.com.Love listening to FT Podcasts? Join us live on Saturday June 20 at our inaugural NYC FT Weekend Festival at Spring Studios. Put your questions directly to our experts, experience your favourite podcast in person, and see the FT come to life. Register now and enjoy 10% off with code FTPodcast — this is one Saturday you won't want to miss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Exposing King Albert II's secret child

Witness History

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2026 10:32

In 1999, a teenager's debut book unintentionally caused a royal scandal in Belgium that wouldn't be resolved for more than 20 years.Each evening after he'd finished his homework, Mario Danneels dedicated his spare time writing a biography of Queen Paola. While researching her, he'd discovered that her husband, King Albert II, had fathered a child outside of his marriage.It was just one sentence in his book but once the revelation was published it caused headlines across Europe which, as Mario tells Daniel Rosney, would weigh heavily on him until 2020.Eye-witness accounts brought to life by archive. Witness History is for those fascinated by and curious about the past. We take you to the events that have shaped our world through the eyes of the people who were there. For nine minutes every day, we take you back in time and all over the world, to examine wars, coups, scientific discoveries, cultural moments and much more. Recent episodes explore everything from how the Excel spreadsheet was developed, the creation of cartoon rabbit Miffy and how the sound barrier was broken.We look at the lives of some of the most famous leaders, artists, scientists and personalities in history, including: the moment Reagan and Gorbachev met in Geneva, Haitian singer Emerante de Pradines' life and Omar Sharif's legendary movie entrance in Lawrence of Arabia.You can learn all about fascinating and surprising stories, like the invention of a stent which has saved lives around the world; the birth of the G7; and the meeting of Maldives' ministers underwater. We cover everything from World War Two and Cold War stories to Black History Month and our journeys into space.(Photo: Mario Danneels, 1999. Credit: Renders/Isopress-Senepart via Shutterstock)

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208. Tish Harrison Warren | A Grammar for Weariness

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Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2026 64:42 Transcription Available

In a world that often feels relentlessly exhausting, weariness can seem like something to fix, escape, or push through. But what if it's also a place where something deeper is happening? In this episode, Anglican priest and writer Tish Harrison Warren helps us explore the spiritual reality of “dry seasons”—times that aren't marked by crisis or tragedy, but by a quiet sense of fatigue, distance, or disorientation. Drawing on the wisdom of the desert fathers and mothers, Tish reflects on how Christians across history have understood these experiences not as failures of faith, but as essential parts of it. The conversation explores how ancient practices like stability, repetition, and embodied prayer can quietly shape a life over time, even when nothing seems to be happening. And it offers a different vision of growth—one that doesn't depend on constant energy or clarity, but unfolds slowly, often beneath the surface. Through the lens of her own experience, Tish reflects on how these dry seasons can become places of meaning, where growth isn't just possible, but necessary. If you've ever felt stuck in the “long middle,” weary of being weary, or unsure what God is doing in a dry season, this conversation offers a language—and a hope—for the journey. Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Vesper Tapes, courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc. Additional Resources: Find Tish's new book here. Listen to Tish's previous conversation on the Language of God podcast.

Nostalgia - Shared Histories, Divided Futures

War Studies

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2026 69:05

In this episode, Dr Nafees Hamid speaks with Dr Craig Larkin (Research Lead on Memory and Conflict for the XCEPT research programme), Dr Clara Voyvodic (Lecturer in Peace Studies at the University of Bradford), and Maria El Sammak (XCEPT Research Assistant and King's College London MA student in the War Studies department) about the powerful and often divisive role of nostalgia in global politics. As populist leaders from the United States to Turkey increasingly harness nostalgic sentiment to mobilise political support, this episode explores whether this longing for the past is a harmless comfort or a driver of division. Drawing on research on “The Golden Age" of Lebanon, rebel governance in Colombia, The Troubles in Northern Ireland and beyond, the conversation reveals how collective nostalgia can foster intolerance and nativism. Together, they examine why the future can feel so precarious and whether art can help us imagine a more inclusive path forward. This episode is produced as part of the XCEPT programme, which seeks to understand the drivers of violent and peaceful behaviour in conflict-affected populations and to support practical solutions for peace. Learn more at www.xcept-research.org. Image credit: RORY NUGENT.com / Shutterstock.com. British Army patrol with neighbourhood kids in West Belfast, Northern Ireland (February 25th 1994)

208. NT Wright | New Creation Breaking In

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Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2026 48:20 Transcription Available

New Testament scholar N.T. Wright sits down with Jim Stump to explore how Christians should think about the past, the future, and the story that holds them together. What does it mean to say that something in the Bible “really happened”? And how do we distinguish between history, parable, and poetic imagination without missing the point of Scripture altogether? Wright reflects on how modern assumptions about “history” can distort the way we read the Bible, and why the early Christians insisted that certain events—especially the life, death, and resurrection of Jesus—must be understood as real happenings in the world. At the same time, he shows how other parts of Scripture operate differently, inviting readers into a larger vision rather than offering straightforward historical reporting. From there, the conversation turns toward the future: the Christian hope of new creation. Drawing on themes from across the New Testament, Wright describes a vision not of escape from the world, but of its renewal. The resurrection of Jesus becomes the key—both a real event in the past and the pattern for what God intends for all creation. Along the way, Wright connects these ideas to everyday life. If God's future is one of restoration and renewal, what does that mean for how we live now? How do acts of justice, care, and faithfulness become “signposts” of the coming world? This episode offers a thoughtful and accessible guide to reading Scripture more wisely, understanding Christian hope more deeply, and imagining how the story of new creation is already beginning to take shape in the present. It also offers a special musical performance after the credits! Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Grayson DeSmet, courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc.

344. Andrew Yang with Jonathan Sposato: Hey Yang, Where's My Thousand Bucks?

Town Hall Seattle Arts & Culture Series

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2026 54:30

Remember that one time in 2019 when presidential candidate Andrew Yang promised a thousand dollars a month for a whole year to ten U.S. families if they donated to his campaign? Yang would like to address this. Pulling from his latest book titled Hey Yang, Where's My Thousand Bucks?, Yang shares stories from his remarkable life so far, including this viral moment during a live presidential debate. Beyond championing universal basic income, Yang would like to bring a little humor into the world. In his candid and playful accounts, Yang examines where the U.S. sits today through the lens of his unexpected journey from entrepreneur to presidential candidate. Part political memoir, part comedy, and part interior monologue, his stories attempt to make complex ideas accessible and entertaining. It's this entertainment that he sees as a unifying potential. Yang believes in the power of laughter, even in — and maybe especially in — trying times. For anyone frustrated with traditional political narratives, curious about the human behind the headlines, or simply looking for a light-hearted exploration of trying to improve life in the U.S., Yang wants to enlighten, entertain, and inspire. It's through this optimism, Yang hopes, that we can create real positive change. Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and the cofounder of the Forward Party, a new independent political movement dedicated to restoring the promise of American democracy. He was a Democratic presidential candidate in 2020 whose campaign outlasted over a dozen mainstream political officeholders and attracted support from hundreds of thousands of everyday Americans, dubbed "the Yang Gang." His best-selling books The War on Normal People and Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy helped introduce the idea of universal basic income and ranked choice voting into the mainstream. His most recent work was the novel The Last Election, co-written with Stephen Marche. Named by President Obama as a Presidential Ambassador of Global Entrepreneurship, Yang is the founder of Humanity Forward and Venture for America, and founder and CEO of Noble Mobile. He lives with his family in New York. Jonathan Ng Sposato is a serial entrepreneur, media executive, and impact investor who has helped shape the national tech and media landscape. He is the only entrepreneur to sell two startups to Google (Phatbits and Picnik) and a third, PicMonkey, to Shutterstock. He is chairman and co-founder of GeekWire, one of the country's most trusted technology news platforms. A former senior leader at Microsoft, Jonathan played a key role in the early development of Xbox, MSN applications, and major consumer initiatives. In 2016, he made national headlines by committing to invest exclusively in female-founded companies and has since been honored by organizations including American Women in Science, Vital Voices, and the University of Washington. He is the founder of JoySauce.tv, an American-Asian focused media channel recognized by the Center for Asian American Media and GLAAD, and hosts JoySauce Late Night. He also owns and publishes Seattle Magazine and Seattle Business Magazine, restoring the legacy titles to local ownership. His civic leadership has earned him the Seattle Mayor's Impact Award, and in 2024 he was inducted into the Asian Hall of Fame as a media trailblazer.

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207. Ayaan Hirsi Ali | The Shape of Belief

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Play Episode Listen Later Apr 23, 2026 33:27 Transcription Available

What happens when one of the world's most prominent former atheists becomes a Christian—and claims that faith actually strengthens reason and science? In this episode, Jim Stump sits down with author and public intellectual Ayaan Hirsi Ali to explore her unexpected journey from Islam to atheism, and ultimately to Christianity. Once known for her sharp critiques of religion, Ayaan now describes her Christian faith as something that sharpens her reason and makes her more committed to science. Their conversation focuses on this personal transformation: what she found lacking in her years as an atheist, how she came to see herself as “spiritually bankrupt,” and why she ultimately turned to Christianity in search of meaning, hope, and peace. Along the way, they discuss the relationship between faith and reason, the role of science in a Christian worldview, and whether curiosity itself might be a form of worship. Whatever you make of her broader public voice, this episode offers a chance to hear Ayaan Hirsi Ali tell, in her own words, the story of a life shaped by big questions about truth, morality, and what it means to live well. Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Vesper Tapes, courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc.

206. Jessica Malaty Rivera | Making Sense from the Noise

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2026 52:09 Transcription Available

In this episode, infectious disease epidemiologist and science communicator Jessica Malaty Rivera reflects on what it means to help people make sense of science in the midst of uncertainty. Drawing on her experience during the COVID-19 pandemic, she explores the gap between data and decision-making, and why clear, empathetic communication is essential for public health. Jessica shares how her work has focused not just on understanding disease, but on translating complex information into something people can actually use. From social media to national data efforts, she considers what builds trust—and what breaks it—when the stakes are high and the science is still evolving. The conversation also turns to her faith, and how her background in the church shaped her understanding of community, responsibility, and care for others. Together, they explore the tension between individual choice and the common good, and what it might look like to approach both science and faith with humility in a world that resists nuance. Theme song and credits music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Other music in this episode by Ricky Bombino, courtesy of Shutterstock, Inc.

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205. Cool Creatures | Lemurs