Podcast appearances and mentions of Henry Hub

Heightened trade policy uncertainty and an apparent shift in OPEC's reaction function prompt a reassessment of our outlook and price projections. Having reached our year-end price forecasts eight months early, we lower our 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 ($62 WTI), down from $73/bbl. Additionally, we adjust our 2026 targets to $58 ($54 WTI), a slight decrease from the previous $61. The price floor is now much lower. Unlike the Biden administration, which limited downside risk by guiding the refill of the US SPR when WTI prices fell below $70, the Trump administration is actively pursuing lower oil prices, with intervention unlikely unless price drops to $50. US shale producers will bear the brunt of these developments, with our projections indicating a cut of 115 rigs starting in July, leading to a contraction in US crude and condensate production in 2026. Consequently, reduced shale activity will weaken US associated natural gas supply, providing support to Henry Hub natural gas prices. While OPEC+ is poised to gain market share in 2025, stabilizing the market at $60 Brent in 2026 would require the alliance not only to reverse current production increases, but to implement further cuts.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 17, April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4953411-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In Q1 2025, US LNG projects awaiting final investment decisions (pre-FID) failed to secure a single long-term contract, marking a first since 2021 despite favorable policies. Rising construction costs, higher Henry Hub prices, and concerns over a looming global supply glut have left buyers hesitant. Meanwhile, Qatar is capitalizing on low-cost, oil-linked deals to lock in market share. This episode dives into the reasons behind the US slowdown and examines whether this pause signals a shift in the global LNG market's dynamics.

In this episode of the Energy News Beat Daily Standup, the host, Stuart Turley covering global energy and economic updates. Highlights include Germany's ongoing recession tied to green energy policies, worsening EU-China relations amid geopolitical tensions, U.S. sanctions on Europe's largest nuclear power plant, and the EIA's extended energy forecasts showing increased demand driven by AI and data centers. Natural gas and LNG are key to meeting energy needs, while oil prices rise due to declining inventories. Turley encourages engagement with the Energy News Beat platform for insights and investment opportunities, highlighting the importance of energy sector trends and policy impacts.Highlights of the Podcast00:00 - Intro01:09 - Germany on course for longest post-war recession – data02:52 - The EU's Trump-China dilemma05:03 - US sanctions Europe's largest nuclear plant05:23 - EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 202608:10 - EIA raises Henry Hub price forecast for 202509:36 - Oil Rises as Crude Inventories Continue to Draw10:39 - OutroPlease see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.Germany on course for longest post-war recession – dataThe EU's Trump-China dilemmaUS sanctions Europe's largest nuclear plantEIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026EIA raises Henry Hub price forecast for 2025Oil Rises as Crude Inventories Continue to DrawFollow Stuart On LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB Top NewsEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB SubstackENB Trading DeskOil & Gas Investing– Get in Contact With The Show –

So long summer!  Peter and Jackie are back in the studio and are discussing the energy news from the past few months. They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August. Content referenced on this podcast:  McKinsey and Company “The Energy Transition: Where are we, really” (August 27, 2024) Canary Media “US Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Law” (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update  BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts  Amazon Music Spotify 

With timing being the key behind our bullish regional Henry Hub story, the reversal of a preliminary junction granted to Energy Transfer a year ago may provide relief for future LNG demand. Meanwhile, the USDA's April WASDE was neutral-to-bearish relative to average trade expectations, leaving unanswered questions for South American corn and soybean production, after yet another month of local write-downs.   Speakers Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on April 12, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670498-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671902-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Investors are split on the outlook for natural gas as “peak shale” may be on the horizon. Here's what to expect in 2024.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Devin McDermott, Head of Morgan Stanley's North American Energy Research Team and the Lead Commodity Strategist for Global Gas and LNG Markets. Today, I'll be talking about some of the big debates around natural gas and shale in 2024. It's Thursday, January 11th at 10 a.m. in New York. The evolution of shale as a viable, low cost energy resource, has been one of the biggest structural changes in global oil and gas markets of the past few decades. In oil, this turned the U.S. into the world's largest producer, while falling costs also led to sharp deflation in prices and global oversupply. For U.S. natural gas, which is more regionally isolated, it allowed the market to double in size from 2010 to 2020, with demand growing rapidly across nearly every major end-market. Over this period, the U.S. transitioned from a net importer of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to one of the world's largest exporters. But despite this robust growth, prices actually declined 80% over the period as falling cost of U.S. shale and pipeline expansions unlocked low cost supply. Now looking ahead after a multi-year pause, the US is set to begin another cycle of LNG expansion. This comes in response to some of the market shocks from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, including loss of Russian gas into Europe, as well as strong demand growth in Asia, where LNG serves as a key energy transition fuel. In total, projects that are currently under construction should nearly double US LNG export capacity by the later part of this decade. While the last wave didn't drive prices higher, this time can be different as it comes at a time when some investors feel like peak shale might be on the horizon. Shale is maturing, well costs and break-evens are generally no longer falling, and pipe expansions have slowed significantly due to regulatory challenges. While many of these issues are more apparent on the oil side, there are challenges for gas as well. Notably, the lowest cost US supply region, the Marcellus in Appalachia, is constrained by lack of infrastructure. As a result, meeting this demand likely elicits a call on supply growth from higher cost regions relative to last cycle. This not only includes the Haynesville, a gas play in Louisiana, but also the Eagle Ford in Texas and Basins in Oklahoma, potentially requiring prices in the $4 to $5 per MMBtu range to incentivize sufficient investment. Investors are split on the natural gas outlook. Bears argue that abundant, low cost domestic supply will meet LNG demand without higher prices, just like last time, while bulls backed higher prices this time around. Now, strong supply and a mild start to the winter heating season has actually pushed Henry Hub prices lower to close out 2023, bringing year-to-date declines to 50%. While this drives a softer set up for the first half of 2024, lower prices also come with a silver lining. This should help moderate potential investment in new supply ahead of the pending wave of LNG expansions. As a result, we believe the bearish near-term setup may prove bullish for the second half of 2024 and 2025. A dynamic many stocks in the sector do not fully reflect. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA's after-market update.The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.BoE's Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed's Bostic & Daly, BoE's Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Hablamos en este programa con dos alumnos del Experto en Opciones de Locos de Wall Street, los cuales también son inversores en #neonode #NEON $NEON y nos cuentan su operativa y como con las opciones han obtenido estrategias ganadoras. También nos cuenta Mr Timbits una posible estrategia para aprovechar los mínimos del Gas Natural Americano con #BOLI, un etf apalancado x2. ¿TE GUSTARÍA PERTENECER A NUESTRA COMUNIDAD GRATUITA? Discord: https://discord.gg/y6pVwHYFf9 Telegram: https://t.me/joinchat/0MhWHiW4EQgzZDY0 ¿TE GUSTARÍA ESCUCHARNOS EN CUALQUIER LUGAR? Ivoox: https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-locos-wall-street_sq_f11368192_1.html Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6kWkLnitQPqp5YfP5SE9p2?si=8637165e46d24f8e Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1587942949?ign-itscg=30200&ign-itsct=lt_p SÍGUENOS en: https://linktr.ee/locosdewallstreet (Todos nuestros enlaces en un solo sitio) ✅ Youtube ➡️https://www.youtube.com/c/LoslocosdeWallStreet?sub_confirmation=1 ✅ Discord ➡️ https://discord.gg/y6pVwHYFf9 ✅ WEB ➡️ https://locosdewallstreet.com ✅ Twitch ➡️ https://www.twitch.tv/locosdewallstreet ✅ Twitter ➡️ https://twitter.com/LocosWallStreet @LocosWallStreet ✅ Telegram ➡️ https://t.me/joinchat/0MhWHiW4EQgzZDY0 ✅ Instagram ➡️ https://www.instagram.com/locosdewall... ✅ Linkedin ➡️ https://linkedin.com/company/82410497 ✅ Facebook ➡️ https://www.facebook.com/loslocosdewallstreet/ ✅ Tiktok ➡️ https://www.tiktok.com/@locoswallstreet ✅ Ivoox ➡️ https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-locos-wall-street_sq_f11368192_1.html ✅ Spotify ➡️ https://open.spotify.com/show/6kWkLnitQPqp5YfP5SE9p2?si=8637165e46d24f8e ✅ Apple Podcasts ➡️https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1587942949?ign-itscg=30200&ign-itsct=lt_p FÓRMATE con LWS en: CURSO DE VALORACIÓN Y MODELIZACIÓN DE EMPRESAS ➡️ https://locosdewallstreet.com/producto/modelizacion-de-empresas/ CURSO DE ANÁLISIS DE ESTADOS FINANCIEROS ➡️ https://locosdewallstreet.com/producto/analisis-de-estados-financieros/ ("Actualmente en lista de espera para iniciar una nueva edición. APÚNTATE a la lista de espera. PLAZAS LIMITADAS") ⛏️CURSO DE INVERSIÓN EN MATERIAS PRIMAS Y ENERGÍA ➡️ https://locosdewallstreet.com/producto/inversion-en-materias-primas/ ("Actualmente en lista de espera para iniciar una nueva edición. APÚNTATE a la lista de espera. PLAZAS LIMITADAS") CURSO DE INVERTIR CON OPCIONES FINANCIERAS ➡️ https://locosdewallstreet.com/producto/opciones-financieras/ ("Actualmente en lista de espera para iniciar una nueva edición. APÚNTATE a la lista de espera. PLAZAS LIMITADAS") INTRODUCCIÓN A LA INVERSIÓN EN SHIPPING ⬇️ https://locosdewallstreet.com/product... ("Actualmente en lista de espera para iniciar una nueva edición. APÚNTATE a la lista de espera. PLAZAS LIMITADAS") LISTAS DEL CANAL que te pueden gustar: Análisis acciones https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkqH8haUpumLvgbFv4c_5rvlw1m7OGLDO ���� EDGAR analiza ... https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkqH8haUpumK3wzvJUfOnQpUVTs_7bYUk Charlando con.... https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkqH8haUpumIPcb94q07HRXpZkMPL2b11 Locos por la INVERSIÓN | Aprendiendo desde CERO 0⃣ https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkqH8haUpumL4SFPbB6EtV7CmmpUDg-OT Píldoras ECONOMÍA https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkqH8haUpumKBKC_4zeMsVi2yC6dJ8RSa Locos ⭐ "FIVE STARS" ⭐ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r462qsKRsnM&list=PLkqH8haUpumINsb-mUHns-PSzXM4QdRvq TOP 10 VÍDEOS MÁS VISTOS ✔ Capitalismo, Ahorro y Trabajo DURO - Charla con Miguel Anxo Bastos https://youtu.be/A4RwoxKCkHs ✔ Inversión en Calidad - Charlando con Emérito Quintana https://youtu.be/cgESmGV23k0 ✔ Lo que debes SABER de la cartera de GABRIEL CASTRO (OIL, GAS, Kistos, Golar,...) https://youtu.be/yOaqTdbAkZs ✔ INFLACIÓN ....¿Es un shock de OFERTA? https://youtu.be/nremCCMjEYY ✔ Aprende a invertir con LWS | Fundamentos de la inversión https://youtu.be/mJll86XS0Iw ✔ La subida del petróleo NO la provocó la invasión de Rusia Edgar Fernández Vidal https://youtu.be/ZXcAEheerbg ✔⛴ ZIM: ¿Gran oportunidad o trampa de valor ? Tatín actualiza el SHIPPING https://youtu.be/yvRB3npyscs ✔ "Geoestrategia y energía nuclear" ☣️ - Charlando con José Gutiérrez Elso https://youtu.be/OECAm-VCyzE ✔⛏ ¿Por qué INVERTIR en ESTAÑO? ⛰ https://youtu.be/eP1BX_4x3rA ✔ ¿Qué es el METAVERSO? Locos por FACEBOOK con EMÉRITO Quintana y Alejandro BAGUENA https://youtu.be/ESscDSJTPXM

Russian oil trade remains in ship-shape as the EU price cap has failed to stem Moscow's freight and insurance income, analyst sayshttps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-india-china-not-cheap-shipping-fees-kpler-analyst-2023-1- "Debunking number one, no one really knows the price of Russian oil"- Urals blend may be priced at $38/barrel (less than half price of Brent) but now Russia is selling all these other services to go along with it like insurance, shipping, etc. so they could be making $60+/barrel with all the other services rolled in.Yellen says setting price caps on Russian refined oil products 'complicated'https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/yellen-says-setting-price-caps-russian-refined-oil-products-complicated-2023-01-21/- "Western countries are working to structure price caps on Russian refined petroleum products to ensure continued flow of Russian diesel, but the markets are complicated and there is a chance things do not go to plan" - Multiple different products make it harder to implement a price cap, apparently- European Union diesel ban comes into effect Feb 5- Yellen thinks crude oil price cap is successful so far because price for Russian crude oil dropped and Russia says its revenue is down -- but is it really?- There are so many ways to get around the price cap.U.S. energy head warns Republicans oil bill would lift pump priceshttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-energy-chief-warns-republicans-that-oil-bill-would-raise-pump-prices-2023-01-18/- Is this bill even a threat? This is posturing. Biden will just veto the bill and Republicans don't have veto-proof majority to override it.- Doesn't make sense to put SPR releases under purview of Congress. Congress would be a terrible body to have approval authority over SPR releases.- President should have authority to make these decisionsWhite House Aims to Reflect the Environment in Economic Datahttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/20/business/economy/economic-statistics-climate-nature.html- Idea put forth at the WEF by John Kerry, so it's unlikely to go anywhereDr. Dean Foreman from API: Monthly Statistical Report AND Quarterly Industry Report- US consumed 25 million bpd of petroleum- Part going into materials and petrochemicals was up- EIA growth estimate up to 1 million bpd but IEA now estimating 1.9 million bpd of demand growth: different expectations for China's growth. Europeans anticipating shortage of natural gas and expectation they will replace this with diesel- EIA estimates growth from US primarily. But API says growth flatlining. No tailwind coming from DUCs. How will we get 1million bpd growth? ANd where is growth from other non-OPEC countries? Less clear when this oil will come online.- Less international drilling, more investment but costs are up. Despite weaker economic forecasts, oil demand is still strong- API data focused on why production has been held back. Comparison with natural gas. Nat gas production is at all time high, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Why? Gas has been led by Louisnana and Texas, which are conducive to gas drilling. Oil has more headwinds. Colorado stifling, New Mexico, Wyoming, North Dakota - drilling is all weak compared to pre-pandemic. Federal moratorium is a big issue for NM, WY, ND. Inability to build intrastate pipelines is hitting oil production.- Appalachia should be the largest source of natgas in US but can't get Mountain Valley pipeline online even though it's mostly built! Finishing the pipeline would totally.- Marcellus area natgas is prices nearly a dollar less than Henry Hub for next year. Why? This is big discount and is impacting the economics of natgas development.- DUC issue is indicative of workforce limitations. limited completion crews so people making decision to keep completion crews on rigs that are operating because they might lose it?- DUCs are theoretically the cheapest way to get product to market. News from Permian - changing how they are drilling, reshuffling. Is it economic?- Distillate stocks increased for 3rd straight month. Are we in the clear? Concerns aren't totally alleviated but we are 33 days of supply as a nation (was 25 in October). Real question is how to get distillate to Northeast. Relatively warm winter has helped because more time to get diesel by rain and truck from midwest to northeast. Especially since imports from Europe are down.- US net exports (crude oil and refined products) record for December - EIA projections for exports think that US will have surplus in Q1 2023 despite huge exports every month in 2022. How does this work?- Fundamentally, the market is tight. US products are in demand, let's make sure we are supporting US production in ways that are consistent with the promises we've made to our allies.https://www.api.org/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

The fundamentals illustrate how U.S. LNG is to become 25% of all LNG around the world. Henry Hub natural gas prices will never go higher than global prices. This gives U.S. LNG the opportunity to set prices for the floor over the next few decades. Watch video on YouTube Follow us on Twitter @TellurianLNG Tellurian Inc. […] The post CHAT with TELL | Two minutes with Charif Souki on why U.S. LNG is an attractive business and financial proposition appeared first on Tellurian Inc..

Waha gas typically trades at a large basis discount to the Henry Hub, and at times, prices in the Permian have been negative. Most of the industry focus is on increasing takeaway capacity to the Gulf Coast region, but what about west toward California and south to Mexico? We discuss several developments that could help increase the flow of Permian gas in those directions.

Recorded on November 4, 2022 https://youtu.be/0BbPlG1M-ek Episode 64 of the PetroNerds podcast is a natural gas special with guest Toby Rice, CEO of EQT. EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the US, producing roughly 6 Bcf/day. Trisha and Toby chat about the state of the gas market, LNG and global macro, ESG, unleashing US shale, the prolific Marcellus, and the lack of pipeline capacity throttling EQT's growth capabilities. Trisha pushes Toby on his positioning and stance around C02 and ESG, especially in the context of energy security. She does not think they agree. He thinks they agree on everything. This is a great back and forth you are not going to want to miss. WTI $91.32, Brent $97.48, Henry Hub $6.15, Dutch TTF $/MMBtu $36, 30 Year Mortgage 7.29%, 10 Year Yield 4.17% Listen on Itunes

Recorded on October 27, 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG7Jl5DPnag Episode 63 of the PetroNerds podcast is another must listen to episode ahead of midterms. Trisha Curtis is joined by guest Andrew Haney, Co-President of Nickel Road Operating. Nickel Road is a private company operating in the Denver Julesburg Basin in Colorado. Trisha and Andrew discuss the current state of the oil market, the dramatic drop in natural gas prices, the IEA's recent report calling this the first global energy crisis and the need for more renewables and clean energy, the state of the oil market in Colorado and the ability and difficulty in obtaining permits. They also discuss the operational environment in Colorado, the high standards and requirements and regulations in Colorado, competition with other states, achievements on drilling times, lateral lengths, and well performance and much much more! On October 27th, 2022: WTI $88.85, Brent $96.78, Henry Hub $5.19, Dutch TTF $30.78, 30 Year Mortgage 7.04%, 10 Year Yield 3.95% Listen on Itunes

Please join Patrick Rau, NGI's Director of Strategy and Research, for the final of NGI's three-part series on how the market analyzes and anticipates Henry Hub natural gas prices. We conclude this series by discussing signals that may yield clues to potential future price direction and volatility.

Some call technical analysis "voodoo magic," and the subject has been scorned by many market fundamentalists. Nonetheless, Natural Gas Intelligence believes there is ample evidence to suggest that technical analysis is not only used by Henry Hub futures traders, but that it can also impact natural gas prices. Join Patrick Rau, NGI's Director of Strategy and Research, in this podcast series to learn more about some of the more popular technical tools to analyze and forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices.

Trying to understand where the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub is headed? We at Natural Gas Intelligence have covered the North American natural gas market since the early 1980s, and have learned a thing or two about how the market analyzes and forecasts Henry Hub prices. While this discussion is not a price forecast on our part, we believe it can help you better frame your approach going forward. Join Patrick Rau, NGI's Director of Strategy and Research, on episode 83 of NGI's Hub & Flow podcast to learn more about what to watch when analyzing the North American natural gas market.

While North American natural gas prices are relatively low compared to Europe and Asia – they are still over four times greater than the typical level over the past several years. Assuming a cold winter, North American prices could spike up even higher.This week we invite Tim Egan, President and CEO, Canadian Gas Association (CGA) to join the podcast to talk about natural gas in Canada.   Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask: Is affordability a concern this winter for Canadian residential and industrial users of natural gas?   Are exports of LNG from Canada's east coast economic? Why has central Canada's consumption of American natural gas grown?  Will Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) or hydrogen consumption grow in Canada? What are some examples of Canadian innovation when it comes to natural gas? Content referenced in this podcast:·         Website with more information on natural gas and its consumption: “Fueling Canada – we can do it” 

Recorded on August 11, 2022 https://youtu.be/dsBETJtjcu4 Recorded on August 2, 2022 In episode 59 of the PetroNerds podcast, Trisha Curtis is joined by David Ramsden Wood. David hits Trisha with a series of rapid fire questions from the stock market, the Fed, inflation and interest rates, the global economy and macro environment to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resilience of US shale. They get into the energy transition and the breakdown taking place across the globe. They talk about Russia's pariah status and the linkages with China. They talk about the energy transition, energy security, and the stability of power sources like coal in the year 2022. August 2, 2022 - WTI $95.78, Brent $101.91, Henry Hub $7.89, Dutch TTf $.MMBtu $60, 30 Year Mortgage 5.05%, 10 Year Yield 2.71%

NGI is pleased to announce we have begun including our daily and monthly Henry Hub spot market indexes in our LNG Insight service. We believe this will help promote greater international natural gas price transparency, especially as the United States adds to its role as the incremental provider of global gas supply.

Recorded on August 11, 2022 https://youtu.be/rYwT4wFnwEY In episode 58, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds, gives a talk to the Denver Petroleum Club's Mentor Program.  Trisha begins the podcast by recapping highlights from the past couple of weeks and bringing listeners up to speed on the state of the oil market and latest happenings in energy security, oil prices, and China.  In her talk to industry leaders and their industry mentees, Trisha explains what is happening in the global oil market with oil prices, the global economy and inflation and major food and energy crises taking place around the world.  She gets into oil demand, high natural gas prices, Chinese coal production, Chinese rising unemployment and poor housing data, ESG and the pressures on public operators, US energy production and declines during 2020, and the massive public private bifurcation in drilling and completion activity in US shale.  This is a thorough talk on everything taking place in the global economy and oil market from here in the US to across the pond.  August 11th, 2022 WTI was $93.51 and Henry Hub was $8.35.

Recorded on August 17, 2022 https://youtu.be/Lj2beKVovRw Episode 57 of the PetroNerds podcast is another heavy hitting jam packed episode. Araron Hunter with ConocoPhillips returns - this time as the Vice President of the Delaware Basin. Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and Aaron Hunter, Vice President of the Delaware Basin for ConocoPhillips, talk shop on all things Delaware Basin, Conoco earnings calls, technology trends, formation targeting, natural gas, LNG, red hot prices and inflation, and net net zero pledges. WTI is $87.02, Brent $92.58, Henry Hub $9.24, Dutch TTF $67.59, 30 Year Mortgage 5.48%, and 10 Year Yield 2.90%. They discuss frac and technological growth and efficiency, inflation, and Conoco's triple mandate and energy security. Another not to miss PetroNerds podcast episode!

Recorded August 5, 2022 https://youtu.be/PQ14RfBDLMM Episode 55 of the PetroNerds podcast is a must listen to episode on everything from the US jobs report to the market response, recession, the stock market and tech, oil rice pressure, crude oil inventory levels, inflation and the 1970s, and China and Taiwan. Trisha Curtis, host of the PetroNerds podcast and CEO of PetroNerds, is joined by her guest Gabby Richmond, Executive Director at the Denver Petroleum Club. This is another special "fliparoo" episode with Gabby where she asks Trisha the most timely and relevant oil market and geopolitical questions of the day. Gabby asks Trisha about the US jobs report and the wackiness of the stock market response last week. They talk about the Fed, inflation, recession and what that means for the stock market. Gabby asks about oil prices, US crude oil inventories and stocks, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and spare capacity. Trisha talks about extreme complexities in the global economy that are important for all businesses and CEOs to watch out for. She also discusses the false sense of security of high oil prices against a backdrop of a poor and stretched global economy in the midst of war and an energy and food crisis. The discussion is closed with a great update on China and Taiwan and Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last week and what Taiwan means for China, the global economy, US midterms, and more. Trisha talks about Taiwan's need for natural gas to make semiconductors and China's aggressive coal production increases and what it means for Chinese domestic energy security and Chinese outward expansion. WTI is $90.02, Brent $95.68, Henry Hub $8.15, Dutch TTF $60, 30 Year Mortgage 5.16%, 10 Year Yield 2.85%

Recorded on August 2, 2022 https://youtu.be/SyEGad8AmPY Recession, China, Taiwan, inflation and concerns about oil demand on the brain? PetroNerds has you covered. Episode 54 of the PetroNerds podcast is a 44 min jam packed intel ridden podcast covering Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and tensions with China, Exxon's earnings call, and Chris Wright's fantastic statement on the energy transition, investment pressure, and leadership in oil and gas in Liberty Energy's Q2 2022 earnings call. Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the PetroNerds podcast, walks listeners through current oil and natural gas prices and price pressure on oil prices. WTI $95.78, Brent $101.91, Henry Hub $7.89, Dutch TTF $/MMBtu $60, 30 Year Mortgage 5.05%, 10 Year Yield 2.71%. Trisha discusses Europe's energy crisis, Spain instituting caps on air conditioning and heating temperatures, Germany's increasing coal burn, the stock market and the Fed, inflation, and Walmart's earnings miss and food inflation.

Earlier this year Cheniere Energy and ARC Resources announced a new supply agreement to export Canadian gas from an LNG facility located on the US Gulf Coast. This week on the podcast, Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Cheniere and Ryan Berrett, Senior Vice President, Marketing at ARC Resources tell us more about their agreement. Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter ask them:  How well positioned is North America versus other potential LNG suppliers to Europe?  By 2030, how much will US LNG exports grow compared with today?  Considering the long transportation distance, does it make economic sense to export Canadian gas from the US Gulf Coast?   With the increasing pull from international markets, do you expect North American gas production will grow? Are ESG attributes important to buyers of LNG?See the press release about the Cheniere Energy and ARC Resources supply agreement: https://lngir.cheniere.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/247/cheniere-corpus-christi-stage-iii-and-arc-resources-signPlease review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer. 

Recorded on June 1st, 2022 https://youtu.be/8CgDLyvds_s Episode 49 of the PetroNerds podcast is a PetroNerdy service company focused podcast with Adam Anderson, the CEO of Innovex. Trisha Curtis and Adam talk shop on oilfield services and the state of the oil market. Innovex is known to many in and outside the oil and gas industry for being the company which North Face rejected a jacket order on the basis that Innovex was involved in the oil business. (The Colorado Oil and Gas Association gave North Face an award in response, mocking them for their hypocrisy and direct support of oil and gas given most of their products are made from petroleum. Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy (formerly Liberty Oilfield Services) has led a campaign in Denver Colorado, purchasing billboards, thanking North Face for their oil and gas use.) Trisha and Adam talk about oilfield services in a $100 barrel market, inflation, ESG and investor pressure, the underinvestment thesis, and what is happening in the market with OPEC and Russia. Adam asks Trisha questions and they disagree a bit and debate about what is happening in the oil market. It is a great conversation and worth a listen! On June 1st, 2022 oil prices were $115.27 WTI, $116.35 Brent. Henry Hub $8.70 and Dutch TTF $/MMBTU $27. The 30 year mortgage rate was 5.57 percent.  

Global demand for natural gas continues to skyrocket in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Helping to offset supply into Europe and Asia, demand for U.S. LNG exports have also risen, subsequently boosting natural gas prices at Henry Hub to +10-year highs. Companies around the world are fast-tracking infrastructure developments – from FSRUs to new train expansions, from pipeline construction to deepwater Fast FLNG –  in an effort to boost LNG imports and exports. With mounting export projects moving forward as quickly as possible across the U.S. and Mexico, will exploration & production in the Haynesville, Permian and Marcellus be able to feed these demand centers? Join Patrick Rau, strategy and research director at Natural Gas Intelligence, as he puts the global natural gas puzzle pieces together in this episode of NGI's Hub & Flow podcast.

Recorded on May 12, 2022 https://youtu.be/NfaSKF6r7F8 Episode 48 is a true PetroNerds special.  Want to see PetroNerds in action? Actually giving a client presentation? Listeners of the PetroNerds podcast get to hear and see this fun fast paced 40 minute talk, soup to nuts, on the global economy and global oil market.  This was an actual recorded presentation given to a public E&P on May 12th, 2022.  Trisha Curtis walks you through the global oil market, recession risks and realities, inflation, the impact of high oil prices and high inflation on the economy and oil demand, the food and energy crisis, what is happening in the US economy and housing market, the entrenched war in Ukraine and the impact this is having on Europe's economy and the global food crisis, Trisha's contrarian and real world views on ESG, US oil and gas activity and the impact of ESG and investor pressure on public operators, their oil production, and the current energy crisis, and why this all matters for oil demand, oil prices, and your business. On May 12th, 2022 WTI was $106.13, Brent $107.45, Henry Hub 7.74, and Dutch TTF $/MMBtu $32.62.  

Natural gas price has been climbing to near record highs in North America.  This week, Jackie and Peter talk about the reasons for high natural gas prices now.Longer term, North American gas markets are undergoing a structural change. To reduce their reliance on Russia, EU countries are turning towards new gas suppliers including the United States. Consequently, a US build-out of LNG export capacity is starting.  The pull from more Canadian and US gas going overseas will change the gas markets. Peter and Jackie finish the podcast talking about the history of natural gas which has undergone many transitions. It started with coal gas and transitioned to nature or natural gas. The United Kingdom was once importing gas from the United States, then Europe grew domestic supply and imported more Russian production. Now the EU is transitioning away from Russia.  In the future, gaseous fuels are likely to transition towards clean hydrogen and Renewable Natural Gas (RNG).Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

Recorded on May 4, 2022 https://youtu.be/k8klTgu4wqo Episode 47 is a special treat for PetroNerds podcast listeners wanting to know more about Colorado, regulations on oil and gas, the need for politicians to actually act, and the Denver Julesburg Basin.  Trisha Curtis is joined by guest Heidi Gill, CEO of Denver based Urban Solutions.  Urban Solutions is primarily a soundwall and mitigation company for oil and gas activity, but as Heidi explains, it is also a compliance company and is working on software and nuisance impacts and mitigation in other businesses from renewables to crypto.  Trisha opens with commentary on the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate hike and the current 30 year fixed mortgage rate of 5.6 percent.  WTI is $107.68, Brent $110.07, Henry Hub $8.38, Dutch TTF $32.  Trisha and Heidi talk about the state of the Colorado oil and gas industry, regulations in Colorado oil and gas, the defeat of Proposition 112, the push of SB 181, changes in the COGCC (Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission), and oil and gas activity in the DJ Basin.  They talk about the need for clarity on regulations and the need for permit approvals for investors to get excited about the DJ.  They talk about Colorado Governor Jared Polis' positioning on oil and gas, how SB 181 was not put in place to foster oil and gas development, and how the COGCC make up was changed.  Heidi makes note of Occidental's wells in the town of Firestone being approved by Firestone but denied by the state of Colorado.  Heidi says that the "The state has not been processing permits consistently."   Trisha and Heidi discuss the need for clarity in Colorado on oil and gas permitting so that businesses like Heidi's have an incentive to stay in Colorado. They also talk about the stringent emission standards in Colorado for oil and gas production and touch on a number of other topics, including NIMBYism (Not in My Back Yard) and the inability to permit renewables as well as oil and gas.  This is a DJ focussed podcast with applications across the US and across businesses, including renewables.  

Energy markets saw a big downward correction this week as the Brent crude oil price dropped from $111/bbl to reach $101/bbl. The Henry Hub gas price in the US declined from $7.3/MMBtu down to $6.9/MMBtu. European gas prices remained stable at the $31/MMBtu level. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Recorded on April 4, 2022 https://youtu.be/UUZ17gIh39I Episode 43 of the PetroNerds podcast is part one of an incredible double header on all things US natural gas, global LNG markets, the European energy crisis, and the impact of regulations on ESG and investor pressure.  Trisha Curtis is joined by her guest Renee Pirrong, Strategy Director at Tellurian.  Tellurian is active in the upstream space in the Haynesville and will soon be exporting LNG (Liquified Natural Gas).  Before recording WTI was $101.80, Brent $106.36, Henry Hub $5.80, and TTF Dutch from CME $36 MMBtu.  Trisha starts off the podcast with a global overview and backdrop of what is happening in the world, including the Biden Administration and IEA's planned release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves from the SPR.  In this episode Trisha and Renee get into US natural gas production volumes, US LNG export volumes, LNG export capacity, and the Biden Administration's plans to increase LNG exports to Europe this year and significantly more through 2030.  Trisha gets into the production base potential and the meaningful impact of market signalling by regulators and the need to build infrastructure and pipelines to accelerate production growth in the US and exports abroad.  They discuss the impacts of ESG investing and money going into renewables vs. oil, natural gas, and coal.  They also begin discussing the energy crisis in Europe and Asia.

No April fools jokes here. Tons of trade ideas with these stocks. $INTC going to $47 - buy on weakness $PVH, $RL looking to go lower Josh - CG - Carlyle Group INC - they just got $50 billion added to their $300 billion they manage which will add $50 mil/year to their fees (which are currently at $175 mil. Diegas - $ORCL - just got a downgrade, but the MacD is about to cross under with a sinking RSI. You should take profits, but maybe get ready to get back in . Jim L. - Kinder Morgan - $KMI - energy infrastructure company that operates pipelines. It's had a run from $17.- $19 adn the macD is crossing while the RSI is going down, but Farmer Jim believes in it like $CLF. It's at the high end of the targets - but it's energy. Jenny - National Retail Properties - $NNN - high end retail with long term leases. Targets are around $50/share. It's trending down with a macD cross down coming and RSI retreating but it's got an upward 50 day with a flattening 200 day. $BOIL - levered ETF that corresponds to 2 times the performance of the Bloomberg Nat Gas index for the day. That's why you trade it for days and don't hold. $UNG - US Natural Gas fund - tracks to the delivered nat gas to the Henry Hub in Louisiana and is a futures contract fund. $CRK - Comstock - energy - oil and gas - this one has run and had a downgrade, but they have a price to book ratio of 2.95 compared to industry 3.31 so it may still have room. $LAC - Litium - $40 price target even before the defense act - these targets could get raised. $CCJ - Uranium Miner for nuclear - big upgrade and could be a $40 by year end $APPL - if I were trading from $158 buy in, I would be selling now that the MacD and RSI are downard. I think we see it hit $170 support and then back up for a positive April $CRWD - alert to buy yesterday at $231 - it closed below - it's had quite a run and may be in for a pullback but far below the 52 week high back in Nov of $298. Also look at $ZS $Gme and $amc fueled by gme announcement of the split $Amc is def trying to get above $30 but can't Retail investment is way up … that might mean buying some of these meme trades on the pullbacks is a good thing The thought is that the China shutdown is easing the price of oil … not strategic reserve release … 1 case shut down Shanghai which is Texas and that could be an indication of how China is dealing with it. Memorial Day is the start of peak oil season. Supply chains are still an issue with Auto Makers - $TSLA is increasingly looking like a better option for car buyers. Let's wait for the Q1 deliveries number but according to my friends that work there - they hit their targets. Shanghai projections with the shutdown might be an issue. $AMZN Jassy comp was $212 mil with $211mil of stock - that is how important the stock price is ….so get ready for this to grow with the split being the first part. He very well may suggest an AWS break out to optimize shareholder value. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/dailystockpick/support

The natural gas storage situation in North America has fluctuated wildly this winter, quickly moving from a surplus to a growing deficit in the US. Meanwhile, Canada's inventories have teetered near historical lows all winter. In response, key hubs throughout the US and Canada are maintaining prices not seen since 2008, the early days of the US shale boom, as Henry Hub forwards recently posted record-high daily gains. US natural gas writer Brandon Evans sits down with Platts Analytics' energy analysts Richard Frey and Eric Brooks to discuss the state of gas storage and exports in Canada and the Lower 48, as well as the outlook for the rest of heating season.

Oil Price Slumps on Fears of New Covid-19 Restrictionshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-slumps-on-fears-of-new-covid-19-restrictions-11637953717Interesting Black Friday for markets - oil plummeting, stock markets plummetingStocks, oil regain some composure after Omicron batteringhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2021-11-28/Germany says working with U.S. on Nord Stream 2 dealhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/germany-says-working-with-us-nord-stream-2-deal-2021-11-28/- Germany claims it will make "strong public messages" against Russia if it tries to invade Ukraine- Can Nordstream 2 get online in time to help with European energy crisis or is it mired in bureaucratic messSaudi oil minister not worried about new Covid varianthttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2278117-saudi-oil-minister-not-worried-about-new-covid-variant- If not worried about Omicron what are they worried about? stockbuilds and SPR releases- If OPEC pauses its increases, will that be seen as a win for Biden?Europe's Energy Crisis Is About To Get Worse As Winter Arriveshttps://gcaptain.com/europes-energy-crisis-is-about-to-get-worse-as-winter-arrives/Special Guest Rory Johnston- Toronto-based commodities analysts, formerly for Scotia Bank- Currently at Price Street and Commodity Context - - Sign up for his substack at: https://commoditycontext.substack.com- Data driven, chart-driven to discuss what analysts look at for the common-man- Where is the oil market right now? oversupplied? under-supplied? - slightly under supplied in a longer-term basis. tremendous amount of inventory flowing out of commercial storage around the world. Competing with new production. The financial is dragging the physical along.- The financial markets are leading the physical markets which can cause big swings- We are already in a speculative-liquidation cycle- Cyclical peak hit back in October- Financial markets think we are tight, for whatever reason, manifesting with tight markets. But we also have slow clearance on physical. Physical signals have been flashing weak from $40 up to $85.- Saudi Arabia's primary concern is long-term demand, long-term prices, price dove within OPEC. Oversupplied markets in 2022 is counting on at least 1 million bpd more coming from US shale patch.- In the past, when prices hit $80, we got over 2 million bpd of production growth. Now we aren't. Not happening yet.- OPEC thinks we need higher prices to test sensitivity of shale. If we don't get 1 million bpd + of production from shale, then it's a deeply undersupplied market.- OPEC+ is like trying to turn an aircraft carrier as opposed to a speed boat- Thinks OPEC will likely stick with the plan, although Black Friday changed the calculus- JP Morgan doesn't think OPEC+ has capacity to increase production by 400,000 bpd more. Can probably increase for another couple of months but some producers will not be able to reach their baselines. Some will. West African producers may have difficulty.- Divergence with natural gas prices in US and Europe.- US natural gas prices went up because big change in US LNG exports - they have grown a lot. Initially LNG exports were a mildly flexible source of demand. good for North American energy security on a long-term basis. But if there was an exceptionally cold winter they could be redirected to domestic use. BUT that won't happen now because LNG export prices are 6 times Henry Hub prices! - LNG market is still pricey, but North American demand looks a little weaker now based on temperature forecasts.- European natural gas inventories are already at a low point and the start of cold weather is hitting them. It would take a lot to see that in North America.

Natural gas storage inventories in the US have crept within 5% of the five-year average and Canada is pushing even higher as the injection season winds down. However, key hubs throughout the US and Canada are reporting prices not maintained since the dawn of the shale revolution due to North America's newfound exposure to global gas market forces. If the US and Canada experience a colder-than-normal winter, and drops inventories below 1 Tcf, pricing analysts expect the benchmark Henry Hub to crack $10/MMBtu, with others across the continent following suit.

A Petrobras passará a permitir que contratos de gás firmados com a petroleira sejam precificados com o indicador norte-americano Henry Hub. Junte-se a Camila Dias, chefe de redação da Argus no Brasil, e Flavia Pierry, editora de Gás Natural e Energia no Brasil. Elas falam sobre os principais indicadores de preço de gás no Brasil e no mundo e discutem as mudanças esperadas para esse mercado no Brasil com a sanção da nova Lei do Gás em abril.  Links Relacionados Podcast Falando de Mercado Argus Latin America Energy

Puits de pétrole gelés, raffineries à l’arrêt : le froid polaire qui s’est abattu sur le Texas paralyse l’industrie pétrolière et gazière américaine. Et il prive de courant des millions d’habitants, soulignant la fragilité du système électrique aux États-Unis. Des températures inférieures à -10°C, le cœur de l’industrie pétrolière américaine n’avait jamais connu cela. Au Texas, l’eau des condensats a gelé dans les puits du Bassin Permien, haut-lieu des pétroles et gaz de schiste. Pipelines et gazoducs se sont mis en force majeure, faute de compresseurs en état de marche. Le chargement des tankers et des méthaniers s’est interrompu dans le port de Houston, dont les quais sont gelés. La côte Est doit importer du carburant Les terminaux de gaz naturel liquéfié ont stoppé les expéditions depuis les côtes de la Louisiane. Et le raffinage n’est pas épargné : 18% des capacités américaines sont hors service, la côte Est américaine n’est plus livrée en essence ni en diesel. Elle doit importer des carburants d’Europe. Jusqu’à 900 dollars le MBTU de gaz Le premier producteur mondial de brut voit son offre plonger d'un tiers depuis le début de la semaine, ce qui a dopé le prix du baril américain à plus de 60 dollars et du baril de brent à plus de 63 dollars. Mais c'est le prix du gaz qui s'est envolé : la référence du Henry Hub est passée de moins de 3 dollars à près de 18 dollars le MBTU, avec ponctuellement des transactions à plus de 900 dollars ! Le prix du kilowatt/heure multiplié par 180 Il faut dire qu’aux États-Unis, le gaz fournit plus d’un tiers des besoins en électricité, dont la demande est à son comble avec le froid. Pour éviter l’effondrement du réseau, les opérateurs ont procédé à des délestages massifs. Près de 5 millions de consommateurs américains étaient encore sans courant mercredi 17 février. Au Texas, le prix du kilowatt/heure est passé de 50 dollars à 9000 dollars par endroit. Stockage électrique et réseau insuffisants Certains élus blâment les énergies renouvelables. Il est vrai que les éoliennes ont aussi été paralysées par le froid. D’autres pointent au contraire l’insuffisance des énergies vertes et du stockage de l’électricité. Cet épisode polaire devrait encourager les investissements massifs dans le renforcement des réseaux électriques promis par Joe Biden.

The stock has improved pretty dramatically, and it is largely supported by long term fundamentals which we have asked you to keep an eye on, JKM is up to record numbers, TTF in Europe is very strong consistently for the balance of 2021, Henry Hub continues to improve. Watch on YouTube Follow us on Twitter […] The post CHAT with TELL | Two minutes with TELL on stock improvements supported by long term fundamentals appeared first on Tellurian.

Tellurian Chairman, Charif Souki talks about 1️⃣ Price of Henry Hub in the U.S. 2️⃣ The rig count in the U.S., and 3️⃣ The price of JKM on a global basis, particularly in Asia. Watch on YouTube Follow us on Twitter @TellurianLNG Guest: Charif Souki | Chairman, Tellurian Inc. Business Description #Tellurian intends to create […] The post CHAT with TELL | Two minutes with the Chairman on three things to watch in the market appeared first on Tellurian.

Henry Hub prices at the prompt have weakened in November. Four key drivers Warmer than expected weather in the US (Temperatures are 24% higher than normal this month). As Henry Hub prices increased above US$3/mmbtu level in October – this has incentivised more coal fired generation in the US (Exhibit 2 below) Reduced power demand due to COVID restrictions cutting load by 2.7 GW nationwide. Finally, US gas production has improved (chart of the day) – but they remain below pre-COVID levels of activity will be supportive for HH from re-visiting Q1 lows (at least until WTI remains below US$45/bbl). Prospects for US gas balances improving from here hinges on temperatures normalising for the rest of the winter and COVID lockdowns easing in Q1 21.

In this week’s episode of the Periodical Podcast, your hosts Kevin and Tavis investigate a market that has been overshadowed by a highly contested election, global pandemic, and historically low oil prices. In recent weeks, natural gas prices rose to prices not experienced in over a year and a half when the Henry Hub gas benchmark climbed to a 19-month high in late October. With a cold winter ahead, a historic Hurricane season in full swing, depressed oil production, and soaring LNG exports; the gas futures market remains strong and will maintain its upward momentum into the foreseeable future.

Welcome to Finance and Fury. The Say What Wednesday edition. This week we’re continuing the Question from Phuong - Part of the question from last week that wasn’t covered. “I heard about the Government’s plan to build some gas station? do you think this is green energy and does it help with economic growth?” Last Say What Edition episode – went through the future energy plans that Governments have – a lot of this has to do with CO2 emission reductions   In this episode – be focusing on the Australian Government’s plans – looking at one section of the budget for economic growth and that is the focuses on the Gas industry the Government wants to reset the east coast gas market and create a more competitive and transparent Australian Gas Hub – aim to do this by “unlocking gas supply, delivering an efficient pipeline and transportation market, and empowering gas customers” Goals are to make energy affordable for families and businesses and supporting jobs as part of Australia’s recovery from the COVID-19 recession – so we will break these down   First step – answering the question on is this green energy? If defining green energy as not renewable – but lower CO2 emissions – depends on the benchmark – if more Australians start using gas as rather than coal electricity power – than yes When looking at the Green energy – focus is on Co2 Emissions – however not pollution – but the measurement of CO2 emissions – side note – in an ideal world – we would all live in a pollutant free world – however this can never be whilst humans exist – especially if people are measuring CO2 as a pollutant – because you are polluting every day by just breathing – the world population is just under 3 billion tonnes of CO2 every year in breathing However- coal has come a long way in getting pollutants like mercury and other toxins out of the coal – but still produces CO2 So lets compare natural gas co2 emissions per kwh to the other sources of power – The carbon intensity of electricity varies greatly depending on fuel source – but as a rough guide: coal has a carbon intensity of about 1,000g CO2/kWh, oil/petroleum is 800g CO2/kWh, natural gas is around 500g CO2/kWh, while nuclear, hydro, wind and solar are all less than 50 g CO2/kWh – So if the plan is to replace more of the coal industry with gas – then yes – it is a step towards a ‘greener’ form of energy In Australia - Coal accounts for about 75% of our electricity generation – this is then followed by gas at 16%, then hydro at 5% and wind around 2% This doesn’t include households use of Solar – but what is commercially provided However – if coal accounts for 75% and is emitting 1,000g CO2/kWh – by replacing this with natural gas – would reduce our CO2 emissions by about 37% Out of these industries – the one at the greatest level of risk is the coal industry if the policies continue to focus on low CO2 emissions industries for the electricity industry – also important to point out there is a difference in the electricity industry and the transportation/car industries with electric vehicles - However - The oil/petroleum industry overall isn’t in that much of a risk at this stage - Just to clear one thing up – whilst the energy industry is moving towards solar and wind – and other forms of renewable energy - the petroleum industry isn’t going anywhere – Petroleumis the main source of energy for transportation – accounts for about 92-95% (depending on the country) in transportation power – will take decades for the majority of cars to be EV – takes time and not everyone can afford an EV at the moment - However - Even if every car in the world goes to EV – and there is no need for petrol in fuelling cars, trucks or boats in transportation – not going anywhere – part of plastics – if you look around the room – it has been part of the majority of products that are produced – so maybe the petroleum industry adapts - Even the road that these EV cars will drive on has petroleum in them – asphalt uses about 350k barrels of oil a day – or just under 128m barrels p.a. So to answer the question on if Natural Gas is green energy –as a measurement of CO2 emissions - compared to coal it is – but compared to nuclear, solar, hydro or wind – it isn’t   Moving on to the Australian Government’s plans for a Gas Hub – and if this can provide economic growth Model is similar to what the US has – the aim is to create a transparent and liquid financial gas market – This is based on the Henry Hub that is based in Louisiana – at the end of the pipelines that flow all the way up to Alberta in Canada Under these hubs - Gas is available at any time, at a clearly visible price for transfer anywhere around the country. With hedging on offer on futures markets, buyers can take decisions on long-term investments in their own operations knowing that a key fuel will be available and what it will cost. Now the federal government is taking steps towards delivering an open and competitive hub model like Henry Hub in Wallumbilla near Roma in Queensland, a key point in the east coast gas grid – however pipelines need to be in place for the effective/timely/low cost transportation of natural gas That is where we have a very long way to go – we lack a lot of the infrastructure – so the governments plans may be able to improve this – On the pricing side - in Australia- the financial market for natural gas is far less liquid than what exists in the US – give it to Obama on this one – for all his green energy talks – he sure did step back and let the energy/gas industry just do their own thing – in a matter of years they became the energy dominant power on earth In Australia - industrial customers currently have to deal with opaque pricing models – this is due to the bilateral deals that are made between gas providers and the companies demanding it – there isn’t a market involved – has to do with thelimited choice of supply as well as the difficult negotiations on transportation terms on the sparse pipeline grid To help conceptualise this – image a share market where you had to go to the company you are wanting to buy shares in and negotiate a price for the share – go to CBA and offer $60 per share – but they want $80 – you negotiate and reach a price in the end – however -under the share market – the supply and demand of these shares gives the market price – at around $69 Also – rather than the shares turning up on a clearing house system – you had to get the certificates delivered to you or go and pick them up from the post office For Australia – and the Government to implement these plans - the challenge is how this version of a market hub for gas can be created First – need massive infrastructure in the pipelines as well as increasing the suppliers in the market Looking at the US - the success of the Henry Hub is largely due to the extensive network of infrastructure that surrounds it – it offers access to both the suppliers and those who demand it across the US as well as Canada and Mexico Looking at the grid – it has interconnections into nine intrastate and four interstate pipelines that provide the supply to the rest of the country – it also has three storage caverns that allow the storage of additional gas – allows for flexibility in the market – for supply to build up and incentivise the providers to lower prices – as well as providing the gas at short term notice when it is demanded The US has built a pretty good system – now comparing this to Australia – firstly we have less demand and supply – a lot of this has to do with population sizes – however looking at the infrastructure that is in place – In Australia – we have about 30 pipelines on the eastern seaboard – which covers around 20,000 km The US has about 210 pipelines – that are all interconnected – covering about 500,000 km On top of this – in Australia – for this program to work as intended – need additional sources of gas supplies – as well as on the consumer side – you need a strong buyer base This can include power plans, commercial consumers as well as individuals in households How does the Government plan to rectify this – through focusing on three major areas – unlocking supply, making gas transportation more efficient and giving consumers more power in pricing negotiations Unlocking supply - The Government aims to get more gas into the market by – Setting new gas supply targets with states and territories and enforce potential “use-it or lose-it” requirements on gas licenses – so if a company has rights to a gas basins – can’t limit the supply artificially – would have to use is – may help to increase supply Unlocking five key gas basins starting with the Beetaloo Basin in the NT and the North Bowen and Galilee Basin in Queensland, at a cost of $28.3 million for the plans – depends on the regulatory plans – and what the gas levels in these basins are – but still need to the supplies here Avoiding any supply shortfall in the gas market with new agreements with the three east coast LNG exporters that will also strengthen price commitments Supporting CSIRO’s Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance with $13.7 million and Exploring options for a prospective gas reservation scheme to ensure Australian gas users get the energy they need at a reasonable price boost the gas transport network – Identifying priority pipelines and critical infrastructure as part of an inaugural National Gas Infrastructure Plan (NGIP) worth $10.9 million that will also highlight where the government will step in if the private sector doesn’t invest - Government would also work with state governments through a program worth up to $250 million to accelerate three critical projects – the Marinus Link, Project Energy Connect and VNI West interconnectors Reforming the regulations on pipeline infrastructure to promote competition and transparency and Improving pipeline access and competition by kick-starting work on a dynamic secondary pipeline capacity market To better empower gas consumers Establish an Australian Gas Hub at our most strategically located and connected gas trading hub at Wallumbilla in Queensland (near Roma) to deliver an open, transparent and liquid gas trading system Level the negotiating playing field for gas producers and consumers through a voluntary industry-led code of conduct, to be delivered by February 2021 – have to wait to see what this looks like Ensure Australians are paying the right price for their gas by working with the ACCC to review the calculation of the LNG netback price which provides a guide on the export parity prices – this does take the free market out of it a little bit – letting the ACCC get involved   So that is the plan – and it may work – Australia does have a competitive advantage when it comes to natural gas – Last year - Australia was the largest exporter of LNG - with an export value of $49 billion – so it has been a core part of our export markets To build upon this competitive advantage isn’t a bad thing – especially if it does as what is intended – through letting producers and consumers get a better market price through the Gas Hub trading system We have a massive resource of gas – so helping boost this will help to boost the economy if done well – We are competitive – so our exports should go up – and if the industry grows – through an increased supply – then this should provide more jobs and well as lowing the cost of electricity to consumers At the moment – the estimates show that the Gas industry supports the manufacturing sector quote a bit – and in total these industries employ over 850,000 Australians – the government estimates that a further 4,000 jobs can be created in the gas industry between working on the infrastructure grid or directly in the gas industry Flow on industries form this – like petroleum – gas is an essential input in the production of plastics for PPE and fertiliser for food production When looking at the plan – if it replaces coal – it may be robbing Peter to pay Paul – if we focus on Coal exports still and no jobs are lost in the mining/export industry of coal – may still see some job losses in the coal energy industries – but it is hard to say As far as economic growth goes – direct affects – if it created more jobs – long term – not just a short term plan to build a pipeline – but through expanding this industry – think this can help Indirect affects for individuals and companies – Supply side – lower cost of production of goods – could translate to lower costs of goods/services over time Demand side – lower power bill price – assuming the prices of electricity actually does go down – will benefit Australian households and businesses – lowering bills means more left-over income – following demand side economics – this could be spent in the economy Overall – I do like the plan when compared to other proposals or just regulating power prices directly – there is no perfect plan – or solutions to economic problems – there are only compromises – think it is a good compromise to balance the agreed upon CO2 emission reductions whilst not destroying the economy and jobs that go within it – through taking CO2 emissions and increasing electricity prices Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/

Ira Joseph, head of gas and power for S&P Global Platts Analytics, and Ryan Ouwerkerk, manager of Americas natural gas pricing for S&P Global Platts, are back, this time to lay out the bullish and bearish cases for Henry Hub, TTF and JKM heading into winter. While the key element will be whether winter temperatures will arrive in key global demand markets, listen in to hear about how the interplay of declining US production, bulging US and European storage inventories, floating LNG storage, new pipeline infrastructure and Chinese demand will converge to drive pricing higher or lower.

US shale roundtable - https://gumroad.com/l/kFXTFUS-China roundtable - https://gumroad.com/l/zzpMP20% off yearly War Room Newsletter - https://warroommedia.substack.com/20percentoffOil prices fall as supply concerns easehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/oil-prices-fall-as-supply-concerns-ease-idUKKBN26X02D- Norwegian workers strike a deal to return to work and Norway’s oil comes back online- WTI reflects this, trading at around $39- Rig counts have bottomed out and are starting to come up, but is this the start of the hill going back up or is rig count in the US plateauing. DUCs still sitting out there. Rigs count should help slow the price climb.Saudis Consider Canceling OPEC Plans to Boost Outputhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis-consider-canceling-opec-plans-to-boost-output-11602174829- Saudis considering walking back the OPEC+ planned 2 million bpd increase set for January- Libyan oil coming back on the market complicates this- If Biden wins the election assumption that Iranian oil will come back on the market, barrels visible on the market and new barrels addedColonial Pipeline's Line 2 shut after Hurricane Deltahttps://uk.reuters.com/article/us-storm-delta-colonial-pipeline/colonial-pipelines-line-2-shut-after-hurricane-delta-company-idUKKBN26X011Why Big Oil Should Vote for Joe Bidenhttps://news.yahoo.com/why-big-oil-vote-joe-110003063.html- Big Oil loves regulation because it keeps the little producers from getting into the market- What does Biden really believe?- Would a Biden presidency advance climate lawsuits against big oil that could be a risk to these companies.API Monthly Statistical Review- Jet fuel roughly cut in half from last years levels- regional gasoline consumption diverging. Deliveries to rural areas basically the same from august, no drop off. Consumption in urban areas decreased 7%- Jet fuel - can it be converted to low sulfur ship fuel?- September saw the smallest post-driving season drop off in petroleum deliveries since 2014. What’s different? People were driving less in 2014 because oil was $100/barrel. - Post Gulf Coast Hurricane review: flooding in Lake Charles impacted Henry Hub and supply chain. Exports held up really well even though on some days ships didn’t move at all. China picked up its imports from the US. Capacity utilization - would have been better if hadn’t seen disruptions. Hard to get good read on Refining efficiency with the weather disruptions. But export capacity held up, which is positive internationally.- Inventory dynamics - natural gas: futures market has said natural gas prices would rise. Natural gas prices has still been volatile despite futures market. Lower oil production assumption that less associated gas will mean higher natural gas prices.= Inventory dynamics - crude oil: continue to back off from record levels. But total inventories set record highs. How do you get crude oil down? Products have to be up. Jet fuel is up, but diesel fuel also came down during the month. Behind the scenes is that 25% of petroleum demand is naphtha and other intermediate products being used in petrochemicals.- Industry continues to see petrochemicals as an enduring source of growth.- LNG prices around the world are starting to bounce back.https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/10/08/on-fracking-senator-harris-wants-to-have-it-both-ways/#42e6ca7e2c4bhttps://thehill.com/opinion/finance/519959-managing-retirement-funds-means-prioritizing-their-growth-not-social-activism

A two minute discussion with the Chairman, Charif Souki on Henry Hub prices this winter. Watch on YouTube Follow us on Twitter @TellurianLNG Guest: Charif Souki | Chairman, Tellurian Inc. Business Description #Tellurian intends to create value for shareholders by building a low-cost, global natural gas business, profitably delivering natural gas to customers worldwide. Tellurian […] The post CHAT with TELL | Two minutes with the #Chairman on winter prices appeared first on Tellurian.

Podcast: Oil and Gas Market Recap (LS 30 · TOP 5% what is this?)Episode: Episode 28 - Impact of US oil exports | A quick look at what is going on with Natural GasPub date: 2018-03-08Get your free trial from Drillinginfo: globalenergymedia.com/di Notes from the listener mentioned in the show: 1. Australian LNG is locked into mostly long contract and price for supply to Japan, South Korea and China etc.; 2. Very few contracts are locked onto the spot price, though this is growing year by year; 3. Most LNG departs the North West Shelf (Western Australia), with 90+% of recoverable conventional gas reserves; 4. There is no pipeline (sadly) from the west coast gas network to the east coast, this option is very expensive as Australia is ~3500 km wide. Currently gas pipeline is being built from Northern Territory (North Coast) to East Coast at great expense; 5. Three large gas trains were built simultaneously by three different groups of companies right next to each other on Curtis Island, Queensland to liquify Coal Bed Methane unconventional gas (which was not a smart decision, though made at the height of the oil price). Queensland Curtis LNG (a joint venture of QGC – now a Shell-owned business, China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Tokyo Gas), Australia Pacific LNG (a joint venture of ConocoPhillips, Origin and Sinopec), and Santos GLNG (a joint venture of Santos, Petronas, Total, and Kogas); 6. Western Australian government imposed reservations of 15% onshore gas for the West Australian public (formalised in 2006); 7. Very tight gas supplies and exploding gas prices on the East Coast; 8. Some talks of gas companies colluding to keep gas supplies tight, which were vehemently denied by gas companies; 9. Queensland CBM gas being liquified mainly, with some contracts unable to filled because of significant law changes in the development and exploration for unconventional and conventional onshore resources due to the national green movement in New South Wales and Victoria (both east coast states); 10. Most gas for NSW and Vic supplies for QLD CBM anyway, with some development of Vic coast. 11. Results in prices double that of Henry Hub on average, which is cheaper than long contracts to Japan excluding shipping costs and liquification; 12. Creates dissent and talks of nationalisation and reservation from the Federal Government unless they supplied gas domestically; and 13. Some companies release gas onto market, the destination of which was unknown beforehand.The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Ryan Ray & Alfonso Colombano, which is the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Listen Notes, Inc.

· The six major US LNG terminals reported a utilisation rate of 40% in late June as the marginal LNG supply source adjusts to lower gas prices. Since April, when the market impact from the virus began to take shape, ~130 cargoes have been cancelled for loading in the US. · US LNG cargo cancellations for August currently estimated at 40-45 (similar to July levels). More than half of the cancelled US cargo loadings for August are tied to Cheniere's Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana (16 – 23 cargoes) and Corpus Christi terminal in Texas. The Gulf Coast Marker (GCM) to Henry Hub spread has been negative since the end of March and has reached differentials as wide as negative US$0.7/MMBtu, implying very negative export economics. · Gas prices in the US are likely to come under further pressure this summer as US natural gas production has recovered this month – partly to do with the resilience of dry gas plays and reflecting reversal of US oil field shut-ins at wet gas plays. Production is recovering at a time of weak domestic demand, limited export availability to exports as well as lower feedgas deliveries to US LNG export facilities (down 38% compared to May levels). · In Europe, gas storage capacity has reached 77% by late-June compared with the five-year average of 53% for the same period. Storage is expected to be full by August and is likely to place further pressure on gas prices over the next few months until demand picks up.

North American natural gas producers have had a tough few years and COVID-19 related demand destruction has only made things worse. But could the situation turn around this winter?   On this week’s episode we discuss the current state of North American gas markets, including the significant share of continental gas that is a by-product of oil wells.  With US oil production set to decline, natural gas supply will also shrink. To fill the void, growth from major gas (more...)

In this OIES podcast David Ledesma interviews Patrick Heather about his analysis of European traded gas hubs in 2019, according to his five Key Elements and also introduces a global churn comparison between Henry Hub, TTF, NBP and JKM. The podcast highlights how TTF has seen phenomenal growth in the last three years, in every […] The post Oxford Energy Podcast – European Traded Gas Hubs: the supremacy of TTF appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

DJIA 2/29/2020 25410 -10.1%       S&P 500 2/29/2020 2954 -8.4%       NASDAQ 2/29/2020 8567 -6.4%       RUS 2000 2/29/2020 1476 -8.6%       TSX 2/29/2020 16263 -6.1%       TSX.V 2/29/2020 498 -13.4%       MCSI 2/29/2020 1006 -5.3%       VIX 2/29/2020 40.11         DXY 2/29/2020 98.18 -0.2%       EURO 2/29/2020 1.10 -0.6%       10 Year 2/29/2020 1.13 -24.2%       Bitcoin 2/29/2020 8060 -14.0%       Au 2/29/2020 1585 -0.3%       Ag 2/29/2020 16.58 -7.9%       Pt 2/29/2020 862 -10.0%       Pd 2/29/2020 2475 13.0%       Cu 2/29/2020 2.51 -1.2%       WTI 2/29/2020 45.26 -12.3%       Brent 2/29/2020 50.52 -10.9%       Henry Hub 2/29/2020 1.68 -8.7%       U308 2/29/2020 24.90 0.8%       Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd BRT : WTI WTI : HH AU:WTI   95.60 0.54 0.35 1.12 26.94 35.02 What can you say about February without getting sick to your stomach. The last week was a real sh-t show plain and simple  Stock markets down from 5 to 13 percent in one week! VIX or the fear index closed at 40 but hit as high as 50. Currencies fairly flat for the month after a large rise and then fall in the USD. Looney and Aussie $ killed. 10 Year yield hits an all time low of 1.13. Bitcoin down 14%. Gold down .3 percent after hitting a 7 year high. Silver down 8%. PT down 10%. PD up 13% for the month but lost $300 on Friday. Copper down 1.2%. Energies totally destroyed. WTI/Brent down 10/13%. Natgas down nearly 9% to 1.67 per mm. Uranium flat.   Ratios: Au/Ag 95.60 - Pt/Au .54 -Pt/Pd .35 -WT/HH 26.94. Crazy numbers for crazy markets.     

DJIA 2/29/2020 25410 -10.1%       S&P 500 2/29/2020 2954 -8.4%       NASDAQ 2/29/2020 8567 -6.4%       RUS 2000 2/29/2020 1476 -8.6%       TSX 2/29/2020 16263 -6.1%       TSX.V 2/29/2020 498 -13.4%       MCSI 2/29/2020 1006 -5.3%       VIX 2/29/2020 40.11         DXY 2/29/2020 98.18 -0.2%       EURO 2/29/2020 1.10 -0.6%       10 Year 2/29/2020 1.13 -24.2%       Bitcoin 2/29/2020 8060 -14.0%       Au 2/29/2020 1585 -0.3%       Ag 2/29/2020 16.58 -7.9%       Pt 2/29/2020 862 -10.0%       Pd 2/29/2020 2475 13.0%       Cu 2/29/2020 2.51 -1.2%       WTI 2/29/2020 45.26 -12.3%       Brent 2/29/2020 50.52 -10.9%       Henry Hub 2/29/2020 1.68 -8.7%       U308 2/29/2020 24.90 0.8%       Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd BRT : WTI WTI : HH AU:WTI   95.60 0.54 0.35 1.12 26.94 35.02 What can you say about February without getting sick to your stomach. The last week was a real sh-t show plain and simple  Stock markets down from 5 to 13 percent in one week! VIX or the fear index closed at 40 but hit as high as 50. Currencies fairly flat for the month after a large rise and then fall in the USD. Looney and Aussie $ killed. 10 Year yield hits an all time low of 1.13. Bitcoin down 14%. Gold down .3 percent after hitting a 7 year high. Silver down 8%. PT down 10%. PD up 13% for the month but lost $300 on Friday. Copper down 1.2%. Energies totally destroyed. WTI/Brent down 10/13%. Natgas down nearly 9% to 1.67 per mm. Uranium flat.   Ratios: Au/Ag 95.60 - Pt/Au .54 -Pt/Pd .35 -WT/HH 26.94. Crazy numbers for crazy markets.     

On this weeks episode we go back in time to 1959, when the Methane Pioneer carried the first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) between the United States and the United Kingdom. Now, LNG has become the fastest growing energy system in the world. Natural gas is expected to grow 40% or more over the […] The post LNG: Then, Now and Future first appeared on ARC Energy Research Institute.

Henry Hub natural gas prices have fallen below $2/Mcf for the first time since 2016 in the middle of winter, usually one of the strongest times of the year for gas prices. Members of our markets and corporate intelligence teams discuss what’s pushing down prices today, what that means for the supply outlook for the rest of the year, and what producers are doing to prepare themselves for more potential pain ahead. Hosted by: Abhi Rajendran, Director of Research & Advisory, New York, Tom Haywood, Senior Markets Reporter, Houston and Luke Johnson, Corporate Reporter, Houston

Mickey's Monthly Market Summary DJIA 1/31/20 28256 -1.00% S&P 500 1/31/20 3225 -0.20% NASDAQ 1/31/20 9151 2.00% RUS 2000 1/31/20 1614 -3.20% TSX 1/31/20 17318 1.50% TSX.V 1/31/20 575 -0.50% MCSI 1/31/20 1062 -4.80% VIX 1/31/20 18.84   DXY 1/31/20 98.38 1.90% EURO 1/31/20 1.11 -1.10% 10 Year 1/31/20 1.49 -22.40% Bitcoin 1/31/20 9370 31.00% Au 1/31/20 1589 4.70% Ag 1/31/20 18.01 1.00% Pt 1/31/20 958 -0.60% Pd 1/31/20 2190 13.90% Cu 1/31/20 2.54 -8.80% WTI 1/31/20 51.58 -15.50% Brent 1/31/20 56.67 -17.10% Henry Hub 1/31/20 1.84 -16.00% U308 1/31/20 24.7 -1.00% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au    Pt : Pd   88.23 0.6 0.44   BRT:WTI WTI:HH   AU:WTI   1.1 28.03 30.81 For January 2020, DJIA slipped 1%, TSX up 1.5%, Emerging markets down 4.8%. VIX ended the month at 18.84, up from 13.75 the prior month. Dollar up 1.9% on Asian Flu ills. Euro down 1.1%. 10 year yield down to 1.49 and Bitcoin up 31% to 9370. 

Mickey's Monthly Market Summary DJIA 1/31/20 28256 -1.00% S&P 500 1/31/20 3225 -0.20% NASDAQ 1/31/20 9151 2.00% RUS 2000 1/31/20 1614 -3.20% TSX 1/31/20 17318 1.50% TSX.V 1/31/20 575 -0.50% MCSI 1/31/20 1062 -4.80% VIX 1/31/20 18.84   DXY 1/31/20 98.38 1.90% EURO 1/31/20 1.11 -1.10% 10 Year 1/31/20 1.49 -22.40% Bitcoin 1/31/20 9370 31.00% Au 1/31/20 1589 4.70% Ag 1/31/20 18.01 1.00% Pt 1/31/20 958 -0.60% Pd 1/31/20 2190 13.90% Cu 1/31/20 2.54 -8.80% WTI 1/31/20 51.58 -15.50% Brent 1/31/20 56.67 -17.10% Henry Hub 1/31/20 1.84 -16.00% U308 1/31/20 24.7 -1.00% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au    Pt : Pd   88.23 0.6 0.44   BRT:WTI WTI:HH   AU:WTI   1.1 28.03 30.81 For January 2020, DJIA slipped 1%, TSX up 1.5%, Emerging markets down 4.8%. VIX ended the month at 18.84, up from 13.75 the prior month. Dollar up 1.9% on Asian Flu ills. Euro down 1.1%. 10 year yield down to 1.49 and Bitcoin up 31% to 9370. 

New York Times Western Pennsylvania podcast episode - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-swing-issue-that-could-win-a-swing-state/id1200361736?i=1000463544308How the stock market has performed during past viral outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 16 Chinese citieshttps://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/6A955A3E-3D43-11EA-A3B8-BC9F4A046959?- check out charts showing market and other epidemics- But do these epidemics REALLY impact the market?- SARS 2003 coincided with invasion of Iraq and H1N1 2009 coincided with housing market bustOil drops below $60 as China virus stokes demand concernhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-drops-below-60-as-china-virus-stokes-demand-concern-idUSKBN1ZQ02Z- China may just continue with its policy of importing into storageOPEC eyes deeper cuts to head off impact of China virus: sourcehttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012720-saudi-arabia-ready-to-support-oil-market-as-china-coronavirus-spreads-minister?- If OPEC says it will continue cuts through end of 2020 now does that really mean anything?In Crucial Pennsylvania, Democrats Worry a Fracking Ban Could Sink Themhttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-fracking.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share- Fracking provides $$ for the state and democrats get to distribute that, but what do voters think?Dr. Dean Foreman with API - API Monthly Statistical Report- More refining and petrochemical expansions- Exports of 9 million bpd = crude oil + products. Record despite the fact that products side is down. Crude oil exports up even before US-China trade deal- despite slowing drilling activity, production is up- Seasonality aside this is a trend driven by strong production growth but should expect growth to slow and inventories to normalize in future- Increase in US crude exports due to IMO 2020 can’t be correlated for sure, first quarter data will show more.- Dearth of buying from China due to trade negotiations. US was finding other markets for US crude oil and other products across Asia, Latin America, etc.- Details of US-CHina Phase one trade deal show that China will commit to purchasing US “energy” includes: coal, products, crude oil, etc. really is a $52 billion commitment over 2 years. What does this mean for the economy?- 1/2 million to 1 million more barrels per day. LNG increases too. - Mix of refined products that China buys from US are heavy on naphtha and propane. These are sold at a discount to crude oil. So crude oil is the product that can really move the needle.- But US can only export so much crude oil. - Shipping implications of this for Panama Canal. Don't let more than 4 LNG ships through locks at one time.- Logistical implications of how the market will sort out the transportation issues of all of this.- Natural gas market broken? Actually its the largest in the world. Not broken. 45 years of nat gas on record for Henry Hub - lowest prices.- DUCs down by 10%- Gasoline deliveries diverged regionally: seeing changes over time. More decline in urban and less in rural. Gasoline demand decreased but reformulated gasoline decreased more and conventional gasoline increased. Pretty strong given the trade and agriculture downturn this past year.Catch Dr. Foreman at the Argus Crude Oil Summit on Feb 5!

New York Times Western Pennsylvania podcast episode - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-swing-issue-that-could-win-a-swing-state/id1200361736?i=1000463544308How the stock market has performed during past viral outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 16 Chinese citieshttps://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/6A955A3E-3D43-11EA-A3B8-BC9F4A046959?- check out charts showing market and other epidemics- But do these epidemics REALLY impact the market?- SARS 2003 coincided with invasion of Iraq and H1N1 2009 coincided with housing market bustOil drops below $60 as China virus stokes demand concernhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-drops-below-60-as-china-virus-stokes-demand-concern-idUSKBN1ZQ02Z- China may just continue with its policy of importing into storageOPEC eyes deeper cuts to head off impact of China virus: sourcehttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012720-saudi-arabia-ready-to-support-oil-market-as-china-coronavirus-spreads-minister?- If OPEC says it will continue cuts through end of 2020 now does that really mean anything?In Crucial Pennsylvania, Democrats Worry a Fracking Ban Could Sink Themhttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-fracking.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share- Fracking provides $$ for the state and democrats get to distribute that, but what do voters think?Dr. Dean Foreman with API - API Monthly Statistical Report- More refining and petrochemical expansions- Exports of 9 million bpd = crude oil + products. Record despite the fact that products side is down. Crude oil exports up even before US-China trade deal- despite slowing drilling activity, production is up- Seasonality aside this is a trend driven by strong production growth but should expect growth to slow and inventories to normalize in future- Increase in US crude exports due to IMO 2020 can’t be correlated for sure, first quarter data will show more.- Dearth of buying from China due to trade negotiations. US was finding other markets for US crude oil and other products across Asia, Latin America, etc.- Details of US-CHina Phase one trade deal show that China will commit to purchasing US “energy” includes: coal, products, crude oil, etc. really is a $52 billion commitment over 2 years. What does this mean for the economy?- 1/2 million to 1 million more barrels per day. LNG increases too. - Mix of refined products that China buys from US are heavy on naphtha and propane. These are sold at a discount to crude oil. So crude oil is the product that can really move the needle.- But US can only export so much crude oil. - Shipping implications of this for Panama Canal. Don't let more than 4 LNG ships through locks at one time.- Logistical implications of how the market will sort out the transportation issues of all of this.- Natural gas market broken? Actually its the largest in the world. Not broken. 45 years of nat gas on record for Henry Hub - lowest prices.- DUCs down by 10%- Gasoline deliveries diverged regionally: seeing changes over time. More decline in urban and less in rural. Gasoline demand decreased but reformulated gasoline decreased more and conventional gasoline increased. Pretty strong given the trade and agriculture downturn this past year.Catch Dr. Foreman at the Argus Crude Oil Summit on Feb 5!

US Stock Markets posted a banner year finishing December with NASDAQ up 3.6% in December and 35% for the year. Foreign markets followed suit but were up by much less. Dollar was down for December but pretty much flat for the year. Same with the Euro, showing a small decline of 2.2% on the year. Interest rates on the 10 year were down by 29%. Bitcoin, the big winner was up nearly 94%. Gold and Silver were up for the month and finished 18% and 15% respectively. Platinum broke out of its triple bottom finishing the year ahead 21.4%. Palladium was the big winner for the metals finishing up 53.5% in 19. Copper finished they year 2.7% in the black. WTI and Brent turned bullish finishing up over 40%. Natgas was a loser yet again finishing out the year with a 25.5% loss. Uranium finished in the red by 13%.Ratios are looking interesting with Au:Ag at 85, Pt:AU .65, Pt:Pd .5, BRT:WTI 1.12, WTI:HH 27.88 and AU:WTI 24.86. What a year. Look for a breakout in gold during Q1. Some type of bounce for Natgas/HH could come with colder weather in the Northeast. That's it for 2019. Onwards and upwards for 2020! DJIA 12/31/19 28538 1.7% 6.0% 7.3% 22.3% S&P 500 12/31/19 3231 2.9% 2.9% 8.5% 28.9% NASDAQ 12/31/19 8973 3.6% 12.2% 12.1% 35.2% RUS 2000 12/31/19 1668 2.6% 9.5% 3.7% 23.6% TSX 12/31/19 17063 0.1% 2.4% 4.2% 19.1% TSX.V 12/31/19 578 8.6% 3.4% -1.2% 3.8% MCSI 12/31/19 1115 7.2% 11.4% 5.7% 15.4% VIX 12/31/19 13.75         DXY 12/31/19 96.50 -1.8% -2.9% 0.3% 0.3% EURO 12/31/19 1.12 1.7% 2.8% -1.4% -2.2% 10 Year 12/31/19 1.92 7.9% 14.3% -4.0% -28.6% Bitcoin 12/31/19 7150 -7.2% -13.5% -42.0% 93.8% Au 12/31/19 1518 3.7% 3.1% 7.7% 18.4% Ag 12/31/19 17.84 4.9% 5.1% 16.8% 15.3% Pt 12/31/19 964 7.8% 9.7% 15.6% 21.4% Pd 12/31/19 1922 5.5% 16.1% 26.8% 53.5% Cu 12/31/19 2.79 5.2% 7.5% 3.1% 2.7% WTI 12/31/19 61.06 10.2% 12.9% 4.9% 34.5% Brent 12/31/19 68.38 9.5% 12.5% 2.7% 30.8% Henry Hub 12/31/19 2.19 -3.9% -6.0% -5.6% -25.5% U308 12/31/19 24.95 -3.8% -2.2% 1.5% -13.1% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd BRT : WTI WTI : HH AU:WTI   85.09 0.64 0.50 1.12 27.88 24.86

US Stock Markets posted a banner year finishing December with NASDAQ up 3.6% in December and 35% for the year. Foreign markets followed suit but were up by much less. Dollar was down for December but pretty much flat for the year. Same with the Euro, showing a small decline of 2.2% on the year. Interest rates on the 10 year were down by 29%. Bitcoin, the big winner was up nearly 94%. Gold and Silver were up for the month and finished 18% and 15% respectively. Platinum broke out of its triple bottom finishing the year ahead 21.4%. Palladium was the big winner for the metals finishing up 53.5% in 19. Copper finished they year 2.7% in the black. WTI and Brent turned bullish finishing up over 40%. Natgas was a loser yet again finishing out the year with a 25.5% loss. Uranium finished in the red by 13%.Ratios are looking interesting with Au:Ag at 85, Pt:AU .65, Pt:Pd .5, BRT:WTI 1.12, WTI:HH 27.88 and AU:WTI 24.86. What a year. Look for a breakout in gold during Q1. Some type of bounce for Natgas/HH could come with colder weather in the Northeast. That's it for 2019. Onwards and upwards for 2020! DJIA 12/31/19 28538 1.7% 6.0% 7.3% 22.3% S&P 500 12/31/19 3231 2.9% 2.9% 8.5% 28.9% NASDAQ 12/31/19 8973 3.6% 12.2% 12.1% 35.2% RUS 2000 12/31/19 1668 2.6% 9.5% 3.7% 23.6% TSX 12/31/19 17063 0.1% 2.4% 4.2% 19.1% TSX.V 12/31/19 578 8.6% 3.4% -1.2% 3.8% MCSI 12/31/19 1115 7.2% 11.4% 5.7% 15.4% VIX 12/31/19 13.75         DXY 12/31/19 96.50 -1.8% -2.9% 0.3% 0.3% EURO 12/31/19 1.12 1.7% 2.8% -1.4% -2.2% 10 Year 12/31/19 1.92 7.9% 14.3% -4.0% -28.6% Bitcoin 12/31/19 7150 -7.2% -13.5% -42.0% 93.8% Au 12/31/19 1518 3.7% 3.1% 7.7% 18.4% Ag 12/31/19 17.84 4.9% 5.1% 16.8% 15.3% Pt 12/31/19 964 7.8% 9.7% 15.6% 21.4% Pd 12/31/19 1922 5.5% 16.1% 26.8% 53.5% Cu 12/31/19 2.79 5.2% 7.5% 3.1% 2.7% WTI 12/31/19 61.06 10.2% 12.9% 4.9% 34.5% Brent 12/31/19 68.38 9.5% 12.5% 2.7% 30.8% Henry Hub 12/31/19 2.19 -3.9% -6.0% -5.6% -25.5% U308 12/31/19 24.95 -3.8% -2.2% 1.5% -13.1% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd BRT : WTI WTI : HH AU:WTI   85.09 0.64 0.50 1.12 27.88 24.86

US exports more petroleum than it imports for the first time ever in November. Stock markets hit all time highs again with DJIA up a huge 3.70%. Dollar was up 1.1%. Euro down to 1.10. Bitcoin crashed yet again to 7705. Metals were off substantially with gold closing at 1464 and silver closing at 17.0. Palladium shot up again to 1822. WTI flat. Uranium up a bigly 8.0 percent to 25.93. Pt to Pd even lower all time low of .49. Gold to silver up again to 86.1. Till next month! DJIA 11/29/19 28051 3.70% S&P 500 11/29/19 3141 3.40% NASDAQ 11/29/19 8665 4.50% RUS 2000 11/29/19 1625 4.00% TSX 11/29/19 17040 3.40% TSX.V 11/29/19 532 -1.10% MCSI 11/29/19 1040 -0.40% VIX 11/29/19 12.62   DXY 11/29/19 98.27 1.10% EURO 11/29/19 1.1 -1.30% 10 Year 11/29/19 1.78 5.30% Bitcoin 11/29/19 7705 -15.60% Au 11/29/19 1464 -3.20% Ag 11/29/19 17 -5.90% Pt 11/29/19 894 -3.90% Pd 11/29/19 1822 2.40% Cu 11/29/19 2.65 0.30% WTI 11/29/19 55.42 2.30% Brent 11/29/19 62.43 3.70% Henry Hub 11/29/19 2.28 -13.30% U308 11/29/19 25.93 8.00% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   86.1 0.61 0.49

US exports more petroleum than it imports for the first time ever in November. Stock markets hit all time highs again with DJIA up a huge 3.70%. Dollar was up 1.1%. Euro down to 1.10. Bitcoin crashed yet again to 7705. Metals were off substantially with gold closing at 1464 and silver closing at 17.0. Palladium shot up again to 1822. WTI flat. Uranium up a bigly 8.0 percent to 25.93. Pt to Pd even lower all time low of .49. Gold to silver up again to 86.1. Till next month! DJIA 11/29/19 28051 3.70% S&P 500 11/29/19 3141 3.40% NASDAQ 11/29/19 8665 4.50% RUS 2000 11/29/19 1625 4.00% TSX 11/29/19 17040 3.40% TSX.V 11/29/19 532 -1.10% MCSI 11/29/19 1040 -0.40% VIX 11/29/19 12.62   DXY 11/29/19 98.27 1.10% EURO 11/29/19 1.1 -1.30% 10 Year 11/29/19 1.78 5.30% Bitcoin 11/29/19 7705 -15.60% Au 11/29/19 1464 -3.20% Ag 11/29/19 17 -5.90% Pt 11/29/19 894 -3.90% Pd 11/29/19 1822 2.40% Cu 11/29/19 2.65 0.30% WTI 11/29/19 55.42 2.30% Brent 11/29/19 62.43 3.70% Henry Hub 11/29/19 2.28 -13.30% U308 11/29/19 25.93 8.00% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   86.1 0.61 0.49

Stock markets were up again in October with DJIA up .5%. Dollar was down 2%. Euro up to 112. Bitcoin up to 9131. Metals were up with gold closing at 1512 and silver closing at 18.07. Palladium shot up again to 1780. WTI flat. Uranium down to 24. Pt to Pd still at all time low of .53. Gold to silver eased to 83.7. Till next month! DJIA 10/31/19 27046 0.50% S&P 500 10/31/19 3038 2.00% NASDAQ 10/31/19 8292 3.70% RUS 2000 10/31/19 1562 2.60% TSX 10/31/19 16483 -1.10% TSX.V 10/31/19 538 -3.80% MCSI 10/31/19 1044 4.30% VIX 10/31/19 13.22   DXY 10/31/19 97.22 -2.20% EURO 10/31/19 112 2.40% 10 Year 10/31/19 1.69 0.60% Bitcoin 10/31/19 9131 10.50% Au 10/31/19 1513 2.80% Ag 10/31/19 18.07 6.50% Pt 10/31/19 935 6.40% Pd 10/31/19 1780 7.60% Cu 10/31/19 2.64 1.90% WTI 10/31/19 54.18 0.20% Brent 10/31/19 60.23 -0.90% Henry Hub 10/31/19 2.63 12.90% U308 10/31/19 24 -5.90% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   83.7 0.62 0.53  

Stock markets were up again in October with DJIA up .5%. Dollar was down 2%. Euro up to 112. Bitcoin up to 9131. Metals were up with gold closing at 1512 and silver closing at 18.07. Palladium shot up again to 1780. WTI flat. Uranium down to 24. Pt to Pd still at all time low of .53. Gold to silver eased to 83.7. Till next month! DJIA 10/31/19 27046 0.50% S&P 500 10/31/19 3038 2.00% NASDAQ 10/31/19 8292 3.70% RUS 2000 10/31/19 1562 2.60% TSX 10/31/19 16483 -1.10% TSX.V 10/31/19 538 -3.80% MCSI 10/31/19 1044 4.30% VIX 10/31/19 13.22   DXY 10/31/19 97.22 -2.20% EURO 10/31/19 112 2.40% 10 Year 10/31/19 1.69 0.60% Bitcoin 10/31/19 9131 10.50% Au 10/31/19 1513 2.80% Ag 10/31/19 18.07 6.50% Pt 10/31/19 935 6.40% Pd 10/31/19 1780 7.60% Cu 10/31/19 2.64 1.90% WTI 10/31/19 54.18 0.20% Brent 10/31/19 60.23 -0.90% Henry Hub 10/31/19 2.63 12.90% U308 10/31/19 24 -5.90% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   83.7 0.62 0.53  

Stock markets continued their upward trajectory in September with DJIA up almost 2%. Dollar was way up getting to 99.4. Euro down to 109. Bitcoin crashed to 8625. Metals were down with gold losing 3.3% and silver losing 17.4%. Palladium shot up to 1655. WTI down 2%. Uranium basically flat. Pt to Pd at an all time low of .53. Gold to silver back up to 86.7. Till next month! DJIA 9/30/19            26917 1.90% S&P 500 9/30/19              2977 1.70% NASDAQ 9/30/19              7999 0.50% RUS 2000 9/30/19              1523 1.90% TSX 9/30/19            16659 1.30% TSX.V 9/30/19 559 -5.10% MCSI 9/30/19              1001 1.10% VIX 9/30/19 16.24   DXY 9/30/19 99.4 0.50% EURO 9/30/19 109 -0.80% 10 Year 9/30/19 1.68 12.00% Bitcoin 9/30/19 8625 -13.50% Au 9/30/19 1472 -3.30% Ag 9/30/19 16.97 -17.40% Pt 9/30/19 879 -16.50% Pd 9/30/19 1655 9.20% Cu 9/30/19 2.59 1.10% WTI 9/30/19 54.07 -1.90% Brent 9/30/19 60.78 -0.60% Henry Hub 9/30/19 2.33 1.70% U308 9/30/19 25.5 0.58% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   86.7 0.6 0.53

Stock markets continued their upward trajectory in September with DJIA up almost 2%. Dollar was way up getting to 99.4. Euro down to 109. Bitcoin crashed to 8625. Metals were down with gold losing 3.3% and silver losing 17.4%. Palladium shot up to 1655. WTI down 2%. Uranium basically flat. Pt to Pd at an all time low of .53. Gold to silver back up to 86.7. Till next month! DJIA 9/30/19            26917 1.90% S&P 500 9/30/19              2977 1.70% NASDAQ 9/30/19              7999 0.50% RUS 2000 9/30/19              1523 1.90% TSX 9/30/19            16659 1.30% TSX.V 9/30/19 559 -5.10% MCSI 9/30/19              1001 1.10% VIX 9/30/19 16.24   DXY 9/30/19 99.4 0.50% EURO 9/30/19 109 -0.80% 10 Year 9/30/19 1.68 12.00% Bitcoin 9/30/19 8625 -13.50% Au 9/30/19 1472 -3.30% Ag 9/30/19 16.97 -17.40% Pt 9/30/19 879 -16.50% Pd 9/30/19 1655 9.20% Cu 9/30/19 2.59 1.10% WTI 9/30/19 54.07 -1.90% Brent 9/30/19 60.78 -0.60% Henry Hub 9/30/19 2.33 1.70% U308 9/30/19 25.5 0.58% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   86.7 0.6 0.53

For August stock markets were down across the globe. Energy was down. Metals turned up in a big way. Interest rates hit the skids with the 10 Year yielding just 1.5%. Dollar continued rising and Euro is sinking. Bitcoin fell below 9558. Gold to silver ratio is heading south. Platinum starting to take off. Till next month! DJIA 8/31/19 26403 -1.70% S&P 500 8/31/19 2926 -1.80% NASDAQ 8/31/19 7962 -2.60% RUS 2000 8/31/19 1495 -5.20% TSX 8/31/19 16442 0.20% TSX.V 8/31/19 589 -0.50% MCSI 8/31/19 984 -5.10% VIX 8/31/19 18.98   DXY 8/31/19 98.3 0.30% EURO 8/31/19 110 0.30% 10 Year 8/31/19 1.5 -25.75% Bitcoin 8/31/19 9558 -4.50% Au 8/31/19 1523 7.80% Ag 8/31/19 18.32 12.90% Pt 8/31/19 932 8.10% Pd 8/31/19 1515 1.00% Cu 8/31/19 2.57 -4.30% WTI 8/31/19 55.1 -5.90% Brent 8/31/19 60.43 -7.30% Henry Hub 8/31/19 2.29 2.70% U308 8/31/19 25.3 -0.30% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   83.10 0.61 0.62

For August stock markets were down across the globe. Energy was down. Metals turned up in a big way. Interest rates hit the skids with the 10 Year yielding just 1.5%. Dollar continued rising and Euro is sinking. Bitcoin fell below 9558. Gold to silver ratio is heading south. Platinum starting to take off. Till next month! DJIA 8/31/19 26403 -1.70% S&P 500 8/31/19 2926 -1.80% NASDAQ 8/31/19 7962 -2.60% RUS 2000 8/31/19 1495 -5.20% TSX 8/31/19 16442 0.20% TSX.V 8/31/19 589 -0.50% MCSI 8/31/19 984 -5.10% VIX 8/31/19 18.98   DXY 8/31/19 98.3 0.30% EURO 8/31/19 110 0.30% 10 Year 8/31/19 1.5 -25.75% Bitcoin 8/31/19 9558 -4.50% Au 8/31/19 1523 7.80% Ag 8/31/19 18.32 12.90% Pt 8/31/19 932 8.10% Pd 8/31/19 1515 1.00% Cu 8/31/19 2.57 -4.30% WTI 8/31/19 55.1 -5.90% Brent 8/31/19 60.43 -7.30% Henry Hub 8/31/19 2.29 2.70% U308 8/31/19 25.3 -0.30% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   83.10 0.61 0.62

US Stock markets retreated from prior month's record highs in April. Canadian markets down and emerging markets down also. Dollar up very slightly, Euro flat, Bitcoin the month's big winner up 62.2% to 8513, 10 year treasury yield crashed to 2.14. Silver down another 2.5% and gold broke 1300 to close out at 1305. Platinum didn't bottom down nearly 11% to 791 and Palladium to 1310, yet another down month. Copper down nearly 10% to 2.62 per lb. WTI crashed 16.3% to 53.50 and Brent followed suit down 11.4% for the month. Natgas continued its slide down another 5%. Uranium off again to 23.85. Gold/silver ratio hit 89.5. Plat to AU at .61, Plat to Pal down to .60. That's it for May, check back next month for June's performance.  DJIA 05/31/19           24815 -6.70% S&P 500 05/31/19              2752 -6.60% NASDAQ 05/31/19              7453 -7.90% RUS 2000 05/31/19 1465 -7.90% TSX 05/31/19 16038 -3.30% TSX.V 05/31/19 602 -1.50% MCSI 05/31/19 995 -7.50% VIX 05/31/19 18.71   DXY 05/31/19 97.74 0.20% EURO 05/31/19 112.00 0.00% 10 Year 05/31/19 2.14 -15.70% Bitcoin 05/31/19 8513 62.20% Au 05/31/19 1305 1.70% Ag 05/31/19 14.56 -2.50% Pt 05/31/19 791 -10.70% Pd 05/31/19 1310 -4.0% Cu 05/31/19 2.62 -9.80% WTI 05/31/19 53.50 -16.30% Brent 05/31/19 64.49 -11.40% Henry Hub 05/31/19 2.45 -5.00% U308 05/31/19 23.85 -5.10%

US Stock markets retreated from prior month's record highs in April. Canadian markets down and emerging markets down also. Dollar up very slightly, Euro flat, Bitcoin the month's big winner up 62.2% to 8513, 10 year treasury yield crashed to 2.14. Silver down another 2.5% and gold broke 1300 to close out at 1305. Platinum didn't bottom down nearly 11% to 791 and Palladium to 1310, yet another down month. Copper down nearly 10% to 2.62 per lb. WTI crashed 16.3% to 53.50 and Brent followed suit down 11.4% for the month. Natgas continued its slide down another 5%. Uranium off again to 23.85. Gold/silver ratio hit 89.5. Plat to AU at .61, Plat to Pal down to .60. That's it for May, check back next month for June's performance.  DJIA 05/31/19           24815 -6.70% S&P 500 05/31/19              2752 -6.60% NASDAQ 05/31/19              7453 -7.90% RUS 2000 05/31/19 1465 -7.90% TSX 05/31/19 16038 -3.30% TSX.V 05/31/19 602 -1.50% MCSI 05/31/19 995 -7.50% VIX 05/31/19 18.71   DXY 05/31/19 97.74 0.20% EURO 05/31/19 112.00 0.00% 10 Year 05/31/19 2.14 -15.70% Bitcoin 05/31/19 8513 62.20% Au 05/31/19 1305 1.70% Ag 05/31/19 14.56 -2.50% Pt 05/31/19 791 -10.70% Pd 05/31/19 1310 -4.0% Cu 05/31/19 2.62 -9.80% WTI 05/31/19 53.50 -16.30% Brent 05/31/19 64.49 -11.40% Henry Hub 05/31/19 2.45 -5.00% U308 05/31/19 23.85 -5.10%

US Stock markets led by the S&P and NASDAQ hit record highs during April. Canadian markets up and emerging markets up as well. Dollar up, Euro flat, Bitcoin up to 5248, 10 year treasury yield up to 2.54. Silver and gold got hit again. Platinum looks like it's bottomed and Palladium was flat after last month's huge decline. Copper down a paltry 1.3%. WTI up another 6.3% and Brent up 7.7% for the month. Natgas continued its slide down another 4.8%. Uranium stabilized at 25.13. Gold/silver ratio almost at 86. Plat to AU at .69, Plat to Pal up a bit to .65. That's it for April, check back next month for May's performance.  DJIA 04/30/19            26593 2.60% S&P 500 04/30/19              2946 4.00% NASDAQ 04/30/19              8095 4.70% RUS 2000 04/30/19 1591 3.30% TSX 04/30/19 16581 3.00% TSX.V 04/30/19 611 -2.60% MCSI 04/30/19 1079 2.00% VIX 04/30/19 14.51   DXY 04/30/19 97.55 0.40% EURO 04/30/19 112.00 0.00% 10 Year 04/30/19 2.54 5.40% Bitcoin 04/30/19 5248 28.80% Au 04/30/19 1283 -0.70% Ag 04/30/19 14.93 -1.10% Pt 04/30/19 886 4.60% Pd 04/30/19 1366 0.10% Cu 04/30/19 2.91 -1.30% WTI 04/30/19 63.91 6.30% Brent 04/30/19 72.80 7.70% Henry Hub 04/30/19 2.58 -4.80% U308 04/30/19 25.13 1.00%

US Stock markets led by the S&P and NASDAQ hit record highs during April. Canadian markets up and emerging markets up as well. Dollar up, Euro flat, Bitcoin up to 5248, 10 year treasury yield up to 2.54. Silver and gold got hit again. Platinum looks like it's bottomed and Palladium was flat after last month's huge decline. Copper down a paltry 1.3%. WTI up another 6.3% and Brent up 7.7% for the month. Natgas continued its slide down another 4.8%. Uranium stabilized at 25.13. Gold/silver ratio almost at 86. Plat to AU at .69, Plat to Pal up a bit to .65. That's it for April, check back next month for May's performance.  DJIA 04/30/19            26593 2.60% S&P 500 04/30/19              2946 4.00% NASDAQ 04/30/19              8095 4.70% RUS 2000 04/30/19 1591 3.30% TSX 04/30/19 16581 3.00% TSX.V 04/30/19 611 -2.60% MCSI 04/30/19 1079 2.00% VIX 04/30/19 14.51   DXY 04/30/19 97.55 0.40% EURO 04/30/19 112.00 0.00% 10 Year 04/30/19 2.54 5.40% Bitcoin 04/30/19 5248 28.80% Au 04/30/19 1283 -0.70% Ag 04/30/19 14.93 -1.10% Pt 04/30/19 886 4.60% Pd 04/30/19 1366 0.10% Cu 04/30/19 2.91 -1.30% WTI 04/30/19 63.91 6.30% Brent 04/30/19 72.80 7.70% Henry Hub 04/30/19 2.58 -4.80% U308 04/30/19 25.13 1.00%

US Stock markets DOW flat in March S&P up and NASDAQ up 2.6%. Canadian markets up and emerging markets down. Dollar up, Euro down, Bitcoin up, 10 year treasury yield way way down. Metals got hit badly, with the exception of Palladium. Copper slammed. WTI up 5.2% for the month. Natgas was down 3.6%. Uranium was back down over 10%. Gold/silver ratio approaching 86. Plat to Pal up a bit to .62. That's it for March, check back next month for April's performance.  DJIA 3/31/19            25927 0.00% S&P 500 3/31/19              2834 1.80% NASDAQ 3/31/19              7729 2.60% RUS 2000 3/31/19 1540 -2.20% TSX 3/31/19 16102 0.60% TSX.V 3/31/19 627 0.50% MCSI 3/31/19 1058 -2.24% VIX 3/31/19 13.71   DXY 3/31/19 97.20 1.10% EURO 3/31/19 112.00 -1.50% 10 Year 3/31/19 2.41 -11.70% Bitcoin 3/31/19 4076 7.20% Au 3/31/19 1292 -1.60% Ag 3/31/19 15 -3.10% Pt 3/31/19 837 -2.50% Pd 3/31/19 1364 -10.40% Cu 3/31/19 2.94 -0.50% WTI 3/31/19 60.18 5.20% Brent 3/31/19 67.58 2.30% Henry Hub 3/31/19 2.71 -3.60% U308 3/31/19 24.88 -10.30%

US Stock markets DOW flat in March S&P up and NASDAQ up 2.6%. Canadian markets up and emerging markets down. Dollar up, Euro down, Bitcoin up, 10 year treasury yield way way down. Metals got hit badly, with the exception of Palladium. Copper slammed. WTI up 5.2% for the month. Natgas was down 3.6%. Uranium was back down over 10%. Gold/silver ratio approaching 86. Plat to Pal up a bit to .62. That's it for March, check back next month for April's performance.  DJIA 3/31/19            25927 0.00% S&P 500 3/31/19              2834 1.80% NASDAQ 3/31/19              7729 2.60% RUS 2000 3/31/19 1540 -2.20% TSX 3/31/19 16102 0.60% TSX.V 3/31/19 627 0.50% MCSI 3/31/19 1058 -2.24% VIX 3/31/19 13.71   DXY 3/31/19 97.20 1.10% EURO 3/31/19 112.00 -1.50% 10 Year 3/31/19 2.41 -11.70% Bitcoin 3/31/19 4076 7.20% Au 3/31/19 1292 -1.60% Ag 3/31/19 15 -3.10% Pt 3/31/19 837 -2.50% Pd 3/31/19 1364 -10.40% Cu 3/31/19 2.94 -0.50% WTI 3/31/19 60.18 5.20% Brent 3/31/19 67.58 2.30% Henry Hub 3/31/19 2.71 -3.60% U308 3/31/19 24.88 -10.30%

Big month for Oil, Bitcoin, US Stock Markets, Copper and Palladium. Downer for U308 and Silver. Look at the chart below for more info. DJIA 2/28/19 25916 1.63% S&P 500 2/28/19 2784 2.96% NASDAQ 2/28/19 7532 3.43% RUS 2000 2/28/19 1575 5.07% TSX 2/28/19 15999 2.95% TSX.V 2/28/19 624 0.16% MCSI 2/28/19 1051 0.10% VIX 2/28/19 14.78   DXY 2/28/19 96.11 0.56% EURO 2/28/19 1.14 -0.52% 10 Year 2/28/19 2.73 3.80% Bitcoin 2/28/19 3801 11.08% Au 2/28/19 1313 -0.61% Ag 2/28/19 16 -2.87% Pt 2/28/19 869 5.98% Pd 2/28/19 1330 6.20% Cu 2/28/19 2.96 6.58% WTI 2/28/19 57.22 18.50% Brent 2/28/19 66.03 6.69% Henry Hub 2/28/19 2.81 0.00% U308 2/28/19 27.75 -4.15%           BRT : WTI     WTI : HH      Au : WTI  Ratios  2/28/19  84.3     0.66     0.57       Au : Ag       Pt : Au       Pt : Pd           1.15       20.4       22.9  

Big month for Oil, Bitcoin, US Stock Markets, Copper and Palladium. Downer for U308 and Silver. Look at the chart below for more info. DJIA 2/28/19 25916 1.63% S&P 500 2/28/19 2784 2.96% NASDAQ 2/28/19 7532 3.43% RUS 2000 2/28/19 1575 5.07% TSX 2/28/19 15999 2.95% TSX.V 2/28/19 624 0.16% MCSI 2/28/19 1051 0.10% VIX 2/28/19 14.78   DXY 2/28/19 96.11 0.56% EURO 2/28/19 1.14 -0.52% 10 Year 2/28/19 2.73 3.80% Bitcoin 2/28/19 3801 11.08% Au 2/28/19 1313 -0.61% Ag 2/28/19 16 -2.87% Pt 2/28/19 869 5.98% Pd 2/28/19 1330 6.20% Cu 2/28/19 2.96 6.58% WTI 2/28/19 57.22 18.50% Brent 2/28/19 66.03 6.69% Henry Hub 2/28/19 2.81 0.00% U308 2/28/19 27.75 -4.15%           BRT : WTI     WTI : HH      Au : WTI  Ratios  2/28/19  84.3     0.66     0.57       Au : Ag       Pt : Au       Pt : Pd           1.15       20.4       22.9  

Ryan and Ellen discuss all things southern hemisphere, plus electric vehicles, and speak with Dr. Dean Foreman, of the American Petroleum Institute. Show notes and articles below.Tesla cuts price on Model 3https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/02/06/will-teslas-latest-price-cut-on-the-model-3-entice-buyers/#77f9e58f47bfPrice cut in direct response to ending the federal tax credit, shows that the tax credit was really designed to help the company and not the consumer.Venezuela updatehttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-global-oil/latin-american-oil-prices-flows-to-u-s-jump-amid-pdvsa-restrictions-idUSKCN1PX27XColumbia seems to be benefitting from the oil sanctions on Venezuela and is selling more of its Castilla Blend to U.S. refineries like Citgo and Valero.Total discovers oil off of South Africa and plans for more!https://finance.yahoo.com/news/total-makes-big-offshore-oil-182223663.htmlhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-total-exploration/oil-major-total-plans-biggest-exploration-drive-in-years-idUSKCN1PN0QZWill be interesting to see how South Africa develops its oil reserves. Will they rely on other oil companies or will it develop its own national oil company?API Monthly Statistical ReportStrongest gasoline demand in January since January 1945 - Why?Last year we had pretty strong demand across the board. This increase is seasonal. Diesel fuel/distillate is actually down 3%. No evidence that partial government shutdown had any impact on gasoline demand beyond the DC area.Petroleum exports decreased - sign of slowing demand, but could it actually be due to Mexico’s import stoppage? How long will we be feeling the impact of Mexico’s decision to halt gasoline imports and likewise, how to see the halt on all exports to Venezuela continuing to impact U.S. refining and petrochemicals?Pervasive issue - both crude and products. More on refined products side. Corroborating factor is global shipping index (Baltic Index). Price of shipping dropped by 50% in one month. Something last seen during financial crisis. Even if US demand is looking solid, global demand is down.When are we going to see this ripple through US data? US inventories are actually 5% higher than 5 year average. But refinery throughputs are still at record levels. If demand in exports start to weaken we will see impacts in US storage.Indicators saying industrial production in the US is going to slow.Rig counts: As we move through this year how do we judge rig count and production? Need to look at production per rig. 8,600 DUCs as of the end of 2018 - Even if we get a pullback in production, backlog of DUCs will keep production high. This is why despite flatlining drilling, production is still high. Productivity has been great but this will stop improving at such high rates at some point. Natural Gas: from a pricing standpoint is it at a heavy spot? Challenge is that as production increases, costs will increase because natural gas resources will be less accessible. Minor warm spell brought prices down significantly at Henry Hub. Sign that productivity is still there and deliverability is so easy - Marcellus share can have wells from beginning to gas flowing to consumers in weeks (not months).Impact of tariffs on natural gas costs: does impact pipeline costs but larger impact on LNG projects.Gasoline prices down but crude oil is up - is this a holdover from the drop in oil prices we saw in December? Other explanation? Timing difference between when crude purchased and when goes into the refinery. High correlation between gasoline and crude oil prices but its not exactly correlated. Record drops in oil prices in December and have now rebounded but are still considered low. Less expensive oil going into refineries, refineries running flat out to produce product.EIA says we are on a path to become a net exporter but that’s not a this-year thing.

Ryan and Ellen discuss all things southern hemisphere, plus electric vehicles, and speak with Dr. Dean Foreman, of the American Petroleum Institute. Show notes and articles below.Tesla cuts price on Model 3https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/02/06/will-teslas-latest-price-cut-on-the-model-3-entice-buyers/#77f9e58f47bfPrice cut in direct response to ending the federal tax credit, shows that the tax credit was really designed to help the company and not the consumer.Venezuela updatehttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-global-oil/latin-american-oil-prices-flows-to-u-s-jump-amid-pdvsa-restrictions-idUSKCN1PX27XColumbia seems to be benefitting from the oil sanctions on Venezuela and is selling more of its Castilla Blend to U.S. refineries like Citgo and Valero.Total discovers oil off of South Africa and plans for more!https://finance.yahoo.com/news/total-makes-big-offshore-oil-182223663.htmlhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-total-exploration/oil-major-total-plans-biggest-exploration-drive-in-years-idUSKCN1PN0QZWill be interesting to see how South Africa develops its oil reserves. Will they rely on other oil companies or will it develop its own national oil company?API Monthly Statistical ReportStrongest gasoline demand in January since January 1945 - Why?Last year we had pretty strong demand across the board. This increase is seasonal. Diesel fuel/distillate is actually down 3%. No evidence that partial government shutdown had any impact on gasoline demand beyond the DC area.Petroleum exports decreased - sign of slowing demand, but could it actually be due to Mexico’s import stoppage? How long will we be feeling the impact of Mexico’s decision to halt gasoline imports and likewise, how to see the halt on all exports to Venezuela continuing to impact U.S. refining and petrochemicals?Pervasive issue - both crude and products. More on refined products side. Corroborating factor is global shipping index (Baltic Index). Price of shipping dropped by 50% in one month. Something last seen during financial crisis. Even if US demand is looking solid, global demand is down.When are we going to see this ripple through US data? US inventories are actually 5% higher than 5 year average. But refinery throughputs are still at record levels. If demand in exports start to weaken we will see impacts in US storage.Indicators saying industrial production in the US is going to slow.Rig counts: As we move through this year how do we judge rig count and production? Need to look at production per rig. 8,600 DUCs as of the end of 2018 - Even if we get a pullback in production, backlog of DUCs will keep production high. This is why despite flatlining drilling, production is still high. Productivity has been great but this will stop improving at such high rates at some point. Natural Gas: from a pricing standpoint is it at a heavy spot? Challenge is that as production increases, costs will increase because natural gas resources will be less accessible. Minor warm spell brought prices down significantly at Henry Hub. Sign that productivity is still there and deliverability is so easy - Marcellus share can have wells from beginning to gas flowing to consumers in weeks (not months).Impact of tariffs on natural gas costs: does impact pipeline costs but larger impact on LNG projects.Gasoline prices down but crude oil is up - is this a holdover from the drop in oil prices we saw in December? Other explanation? Timing difference between when crude purchased and when goes into the refinery. High correlation between gasoline and crude oil prices but its not exactly correlated. Record drops in oil prices in December and have now rebounded but are still considered low. Less expensive oil going into refineries, refineries running flat out to produce product.EIA says we are on a path to become a net exporter but that’s not a this-year thing.

It was an exciting January with stock markets vigorously bouncing back, metals performing well with gold breaking 1300 and silver topping 16.Palladium continued its major bull move. A bit of a bounce back in WTI and Brent. Henry Hub kept falling. Bitcoin lost another 7.3%. Rates on the 10 year Treasury declined. While the VIX dropped, volatility in most markets is on the rise. Just wait till next month! DJIA  01/31/19 25500 9.3% S&P 500  01/31/19 2704 7.9% NASDAQ  01/31/19 7282 9.8% RUS 2000  01/31/19 1499 11.1% TSX  01/31/19 15541 8.5% TSX.V  01/31/19 623 11.8% MCSI  01/31/19 1050 8.7% VIX  01/31/19 16.57   DXY  01/31/19  95.57 -0.6% EURO  01/31/19 1.14 -0.2% 10 Year  01/31/19 2.63 -2.2% Bitcoin  01/31/19 3422 -7.3% Au  01/31/19 1321 3.0% Ag  01/31/19 16.04 3.7% Pt  01/31/19 820 3.3% Pd  01/31/19 1330 6.2% Cu  01/31/19 2.77 2.1% WTI  01/31/19 53.79 18.5% Brent  01/31/19 61.89 18.4% Henry Hub  01/31/19 2.81 -4.4% U308  01/31/19 28.95 0.9% Ratios  01/31/19     BRT : WTI WTI : HH Au : WTI   1.15 19.1 24.6   Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   82.4 0.62 0.62

It was an exciting January with stock markets vigorously bouncing back, metals performing well with gold breaking 1300 and silver topping 16.Palladium continued its major bull move. A bit of a bounce back in WTI and Brent. Henry Hub kept falling. Bitcoin lost another 7.3%. Rates on the 10 year Treasury declined. While the VIX dropped, volatility in most markets is on the rise. Just wait till next month! DJIA  01/31/19 25500 9.3% S&P 500  01/31/19 2704 7.9% NASDAQ  01/31/19 7282 9.8% RUS 2000  01/31/19 1499 11.1% TSX  01/31/19 15541 8.5% TSX.V  01/31/19 623 11.8% MCSI  01/31/19 1050 8.7% VIX  01/31/19 16.57   DXY  01/31/19  95.57 -0.6% EURO  01/31/19 1.14 -0.2% 10 Year  01/31/19 2.63 -2.2% Bitcoin  01/31/19 3422 -7.3% Au  01/31/19 1321 3.0% Ag  01/31/19 16.04 3.7% Pt  01/31/19 820 3.3% Pd  01/31/19 1330 6.2% Cu  01/31/19 2.77 2.1% WTI  01/31/19 53.79 18.5% Brent  01/31/19 61.89 18.4% Henry Hub  01/31/19 2.81 -4.4% U308  01/31/19 28.95 0.9% Ratios  01/31/19     BRT : WTI WTI : HH Au : WTI   1.15 19.1 24.6   Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd   82.4 0.62 0.62

We explore the opportunities Liquefied Natural Gas exports can provide for the nation’s shale boom with Houston-based Freeport LNG. For pictures and additional info, visit http://www.energy-cast.com/44-freeport.html

Get your free trial from Drillinginfo: globalenergymedia.com/diNotes from the listener mentioned in the show: 1. Australian LNG is locked into mostly long contract and price for supply to Japan, South Korea and China etc.;2. Very few contracts are locked onto the spot price, though this is growing year by year;3. Most LNG departs the North West Shelf (Western Australia), with 90+% of recoverable conventional gas reserves;4. There is no pipeline (sadly) from the west coast gas network to the east coast, this option is very expensive as Australia is ~3500 km wide. Currently gas pipeline is being built from Northern Territory (North Coast) to East Coast at great expense;5. Three large gas trains were built simultaneously by three different groups of companies right next to each other on Curtis Island, Queensland to liquify Coal Bed Methane unconventional gas (which was not a smart decision, though made at the height of the oil price). Queensland Curtis LNG (a joint venture of QGC – now a Shell-owned business, China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Tokyo Gas), Australia Pacific LNG (a joint venture of ConocoPhillips, Origin and Sinopec), and Santos GLNG (a joint venture of Santos, Petronas, Total, and Kogas);6. Western Australian government imposed reservations of 15% onshore gas for the West Australian public (formalised in 2006);7. Very tight gas supplies and exploding gas prices on the East Coast;8. Some talks of gas companies colluding to keep gas supplies tight, which were vehemently denied by gas companies;9. Queensland CBM gas being liquified mainly, with some contracts unable to filled because of significant law changes in the development and exploration for unconventional and conventional onshore resources due to the national green movement in New South Wales and Victoria (both east coast states);10. Most gas for NSW and Vic supplies for QLD CBM anyway, with some development of Vic coast.11. Results in prices double that of Henry Hub on average, which is cheaper than long contracts to Japan excluding shipping costs and liquification;12. Creates dissent and talks of nationalisation and reservation from the Federal Government unless they supplied gas domestically; and13. Some companies release gas onto market, the destination of which was unknown beforehand.

Get your free trial from Drillinginfo: globalenergymedia.com/diNotes from the listener mentioned in the show: 1. Australian LNG is locked into mostly long contract and price for supply to Japan, South Korea and China etc.;2. Very few contracts are locked onto the spot price, though this is growing year by year;3. Most LNG departs the North West Shelf (Western Australia), with 90+% of recoverable conventional gas reserves;4. There is no pipeline (sadly) from the west coast gas network to the east coast, this option is very expensive as Australia is ~3500 km wide. Currently gas pipeline is being built from Northern Territory (North Coast) to East Coast at great expense;5. Three large gas trains were built simultaneously by three different groups of companies right next to each other on Curtis Island, Queensland to liquify Coal Bed Methane unconventional gas (which was not a smart decision, though made at the height of the oil price). Queensland Curtis LNG (a joint venture of QGC – now a Shell-owned business, China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Tokyo Gas), Australia Pacific LNG (a joint venture of ConocoPhillips, Origin and Sinopec), and Santos GLNG (a joint venture of Santos, Petronas, Total, and Kogas);6. Western Australian government imposed reservations of 15% onshore gas for the West Australian public (formalised in 2006);7. Very tight gas supplies and exploding gas prices on the East Coast;8. Some talks of gas companies colluding to keep gas supplies tight, which were vehemently denied by gas companies;9. Queensland CBM gas being liquified mainly, with some contracts unable to filled because of significant law changes in the development and exploration for unconventional and conventional onshore resources due to the national green movement in New South Wales and Victoria (both east coast states);10. Most gas for NSW and Vic supplies for QLD CBM anyway, with some development of Vic coast.11. Results in prices double that of Henry Hub on average, which is cheaper than long contracts to Japan excluding shipping costs and liquification;12. Creates dissent and talks of nationalisation and reservation from the Federal Government unless they supplied gas domestically; and13. Some companies release gas onto market, the destination of which was unknown beforehand.