Podcasts about gulf arab

All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island as the United States and its allies struggle to wrest full control of the Arabo-Persian Gulf from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Aimen and Thomas lay out the whole story of this geostrategically vital region, from ancient times all the way up to this very morning—explaining why this war is happening, and how it is almost certainly to end. Aimen and Thomas discuss: How the Strait of Hormuz caused Noah's Flood The medieval Kingdom of Hormuz How the Gulf is always caught up in the Iranian plateau's endless boom-and-bust political cycle How Europeans staked a claim on Hormuz in 1507—and never really left The fact that the U.S. did indeed go into this war with a plan for Hormuz How the U.S. will take Kharg Island—and what they will do with it The ingenuity of Gulf Arab leadership in planning workarounds for the eventuality of the Strait being closed How European powers and other allies are really contributing to the war effort Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. Two weeks into the war against Iran, the Islamic Republic has made good on its threats and attacked all the Gulf Arab states. But while the focus on reporting has been on those countries, players on Iran's northern border are also under fire. Iran has fired two missiles at Turkey, a major regional power; has hit targets in Azerbaijan; continues to pound Iraqi Kurdistan; and Iran's proxy Hezbollah even attacked British zones in Cyprus. The northern theater should not be overlooked. Each of these actors has a complex relationship not only with Iran, but also with Israel. Some, like Cyprus and Azerbaijan, are close allies, while Turkey has turned into a leading adversary and a backer of Hamas. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a leading Turkey expert, examines how each is reacting to the outbreak of war, and what might lie ahead in their ties with Israel. Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stay informed with Crosstalk! Here's your headline roundup for the week: --6 American soldiers were killed when a KC-135 refueling aircraft, supporting operations against Iran, crashed in Western Iraq. --The new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, published his first written statement yesterday since assuming office on March 8th, vowing to avenge the blood of the martyrs, including his father. --Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, told the Gulf-Arab states to shut down U.S. bases amid the war with Iran. --Iran launched a new wave of drone and missile attacks on Gulf nations yesterday. --Israel intensified its campaign against Iran yesterday striking a nuclear weapons development facility near Tehran. --The U.S. military said on March 12 that it had destroyed more than 30 Iranian mine laying vessels and struck more than 6,000 targets since the campaign against Iran began last month. --Explosive laden Iranian boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member Wednesday. --Israel continued extensive strikes on Lebanon yesterday morning after Hezbollah shot about 200 projectiles at Northern Israel the night before. --Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is speaker of Iran's parliament, threatened to make the Persian Gulf run with the blood of invaders if the U.S. military targets regime assets on islands there. --The data center of Iran's state-run bank was hit by a strike in Tehran Wednesday. --President Trump said on March 11th that his administration knows the location of most of Iran's sleeper cells in the U.S.

Stay informed with Crosstalk! Here's your headline roundup for the week: --6 American soldiers were killed when a KC-135 refueling aircraft, supporting operations against Iran, crashed in Western Iraq. --The new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, published his first written statement yesterday since assuming office on March 8th, vowing to avenge the blood of the martyrs, including his father. --Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, told the Gulf-Arab states to shut down U.S. bases amid the war with Iran. --Iran launched a new wave of drone and missile attacks on Gulf nations yesterday. --Israel intensified its campaign against Iran yesterday striking a nuclear weapons development facility near Tehran. --The U.S. military said on March 12 that it had destroyed more than 30 Iranian mine laying vessels and struck more than 6,000 targets since the campaign against Iran began last month. --Explosive laden Iranian boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member Wednesday. --Israel continued extensive strikes on Lebanon yesterday morning after Hezbollah shot about 200 projectiles at Northern Israel the night before. --Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is speaker of Iran's parliament, threatened to make the Persian Gulf run with the blood of invaders if the U.S. military targets regime assets on islands there. --The data center of Iran's state-run bank was hit by a strike in Tehran Wednesday. --President Trump said on March 11th that his administration knows the location of most of Iran's sleeper cells in the U.S.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Daily Briefing, your 20-minute audio update on what's happening in Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish world. Diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman joins host Amanda Borschel-Dan for today's episode. Overnight, the Israeli military says, it pushed deeper into southern Lebanon as part of its “enhanced forward defense posture” after Hezbollah began attacking Israel a week ago. While there are Israeli boots on the ground, Berman clarifies that the IDF is not -- yet -- taking part in a ground maneuver. We turn to Iran and the question of a potential schism between the US and Israel over Israel's targeting of Iranian oil sites. How long can the US continue the conflict in light of the ripple effects on the global economy? The Times of Israel's US bureau chief Jacob Magid conducted a telephone interview with US President Donald Trump yesterday. We hear the main headlines today, and Magid will fill us in on the rest of the conversation on the podcast tomorrow. And finally, we speak about the choice of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader. Berman discusses who he is and how the move is a direct rebuke to US President Donald Trump, who had declared the son “unacceptable.” We also delve into the apparent differences of opinion among the leadership as Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized Saturday for attacks on regional countries, even as its missiles and drones flew toward Gulf Arab states Check out The Times of Israel's ongoing liveblog for more updates. For further reading: Two IDF soldiers killed in Hezbollah attack in southern Lebanon Black clouds over Tehran rain down oil drops after Israel strikes oil facilities Trump to Times of Israel: It’ll be a ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu regarding when Iran war ends Trump: Next Iranian supreme leader ‘not going to last long’ without US approval More hardline than his father, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment signals defiance and revenge Pezeshkian apologizes for attacks on Gulf neighbors even as Iran forces step up strikes Subscribe to The Times of Israel Daily Briefing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Gabriella Jacobs produced this episode and Ari Schlacht edited. IMAGE: A thick plume of smoke from a U.S.-Israeli strike on an oil storage facility late Saturday lingers in the cloudy sky over Tehran, Iran, March 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Iran says it's chosen a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed last week in US-Israeli airstrikes – but the name has yet to be revealed. Meanwhile Israel and the US continue to strike Iran, with oil depots hit, and Iran carries out more strikes on its Gulf Arab neighbours: we hear from Kuwait.Also in the programme: scientists find a mountain range and huge "blue hole" in the deep Caribbean Sea, with life never before seen; and the American gospel musician finally getting recognition after more than fifty years.(IMAGE: A demonstrator holds an image of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after he was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes. Tehran, Iran, March 6, 2026 / CREDIT: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)

For review:1. Six top defense contractors have agreed to quadruple production of what President Donald Trump has termed “Exquisite Class Weaponry” following a meeting at the White House on munitions production.Meeting attended by:RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrup Grumman, BAE, L3 Harris, & Honeywell.2. US President Donald Trump said Saturday he ruled out Kurdish involvement in the war with Iran, saying Washington does not want the conflict to become “more complex.”3. The United States has started using British bases for certain operations against Iran during the Middle East war, the UK's government announced on Saturday.Britain's defense ministry said the US had begun using the military sites for “specific defensive operations to prevent Iran firing missiles into the region.”4. Israel continued its military campaign against Iran overnight Saturday, striking key missile infrastructure and IRGC aircraft, as Tehran launched repeated salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel and issued new threats against European countries that might join the war.5. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday said the US-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran would continue unabated and that the “moment of truth” was nearing for Iranians to overthrow their government.His comments came as the IDF said it struck Iran's two “most central” ballistic missile sites, and, in an apparent first, oil infrastructure in Tehran.6. Iran's president apologized Saturday for attacks on regional countries even as its missiles and drones flew toward Gulf Arab states, indicating that Tehran's political leadership either cannot or does not seek to exercise full command over Iran's armed forces. On Saturday, Fox News reported that the US was expected to deploy a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East.7. On Saturday, Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets and drones from Lebanon at northern Israel, with no reports of injuries.The IDF on Saturday confirmed launching a new wave of airstrikes on Beirut's southern Dahiyeh district, a Hezbollah stronghold.8. says it carried out a targeted strike on key commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards.It says the targets were members of the Lebanon Corps of the Quds Force, the IRGC's extraterritorial arm, who “acted to advance terror plans against the State of Israel and its citizens from Lebanese territory.”9. Helicopter-born Israeli commandos landed deep in eastern Lebanon in an overnight raid aimed at locating the body of missing Israeli Air Force navigator Ron Arad, the military said. The raid was accompanied by heavy Israeli airstrikes that killed at least 41 people, according to local officials. There were no Israeli casualties.The Israel Defense Forces said no findings relating to Arad were discovered during the operation in Nabi Chit. 10. US President Donald Trump on Saturday urged Latin American nations to use military power against the “cancer” of drug cartels and offered to support them with US missile strikes targeting narco kingpins.

Gulf Arab states lobbied hard for the United States to engage in talks with Iran. Yet in the war, 1,800 Iranian missiles and drones have been intercepted in Gulf airspace, with hundreds breaking through. The Gulf is being transformed by conflict. Will that last? Also: today's stories, including how America's recent strikes on Iran have underscored the task of ensuring the safety of U.S. citizens abroad during the escalating conflict; a look at the results of Texas' primary elections, and what lies ahead for the candidates; and how, in Nepal, the country's first elections since protests overthrew the government are a reason for some youth to stay. Join the Monitor's Ira Porter for today's news.

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton doesn't mince words: the opening strikes on Iran were just the beginning. In this special bonus episode, Bolton breaks down why he believes the Iranian regime will fragment from within, what the Gulf Arab states are about to do, and how war in Iran affects Russia, Ukraine, and China.  Then, retired Lt. General Mark Hertling brings the view from the ground. A veteran of multiple Iraq deployments and the former Chief of War Plans on the Joint Staff. Hertling has seen this before. He's asking the question nobody in Washington seems to want to answer: Is there actually a plan for the day after the strikes? In this episode: 01:31 John Bolton 04:32 Power Vacuum Risks 08:44 Gulf States Reaction 10:50 Iran Retaliation Strategy 15:16 Israel Influence Question 17:03 Oil Shock And Putin 19:51 China And Taiwan  23:34 Deterrence And Alliances 29:51 Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling 34:28 Decapitation and Unrest 36:24 Iraq Lessons on Disbandment 42:02 Intel Gaps and Planning 52:19 Wider Regional Fallout Show Notes:  Opinion | With attack on Iran, U.S. deterrence is being restored - The Washington Post  Order Mark Harling's book: If I Don't Return: A Father's Wartime Journal Lt. General Mark Hertling recorded on March 2, and Amb. John Bolton recorded on March 3.  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran attacks Gulf Arab states, hitting civilian buildings and energy infrastructure, as well as U.S. bases. The impact of the American-Israeli strikes on the Islamic Republic is felt across the region. What does this mean for Gulf states' relations with Iran and with the US? In this episode: Abdulaziz Alghashian, Senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum Bader Al Saif, Professor at Kuwait University, specialising in Middle East history and politics Foad Izadi, Professor in the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran Host: Mohammed Jamjoom Connect with us: @AJEPodcasts on X, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube

Trump cannot enunciate a clear reason for why he's chosen to go to war against Iran, and the administration is not even bothering to coordinate a message that clarifies its objective. While the military campaign appears aimed at regime change, Hegseth denies it is. And instead of speaking directly to Americans, POTUS himself has taken on a Jekyll and Hyde approach to his rationales in a series of private interviews: he's waffled between "freedom," to installing a caretaker regime à la Venezuela, to maybe even revenge. In any event, the United States seems like it's being dog-walked by the Israelis and the Saudis, and the corrupt deals between the Trump family and Gulf Arab states may be a factor. Plus, anti-interventionist JD is in the cuck chair, and a preview of Tuesday's Senate primary in Texas.Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes Tim and Sarah on the administration's war messaging 'Bulwark on Sunday' with Bill, Tim, and Mark Hertling Tickets for our LIVE show in Austin on March 19: TheBulwark.com/Events.

Once again the unprecedented has occurred as the US and Israel strike Iran, sparking the closest we've come to an all-out regional war since October 7. The Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamanei, has been killed in an airstrike. Iran is retaliating with unprecedented force, against Israel and various Gulf Arab countries.More than 500 Iranians have been killed, a dozen or so Israelis and less than ten Americans and Gulf residents. To listen to the episode ad-free subscribe to our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/kalampodcastFollow us on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/kalampodcast/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:1) Cuba says a boat with 10 people near its coast early Wednesday was carrying weapons, and its occupants — Cubans living in the US — were intent on entering the country to fight against the government. Cuban forces killed four people who had opened fire from a speedboat with Florida tags, an incident with the potential to escalate an already tense standoff with the US. The vessel approached within one nautical mile off the coast of Villa Clara early Wednesday, Cuba’s Interior Ministry said in a statement. Six others on the speedboat were wounded and are being provided with medical care. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday afternoon that the Department of Homeland Security and Coast Guard would be looking into the incident.2) The US and Iran started a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday with days to go until President Trump’s deadline for a deal. The two parties have been locked in a tense, months-long standoff over the Islamic Republic’s atomic activities and are negotiating through mediator Oman at its embassy in Geneva, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported. Trump had given Iran a deadline of March 1-6 to strike a deal and has threatened military action if it fails to do so, sparking fears of a new Middle East war that could embroil Israel and Gulf Arab oil producers.3) The US vowed to maintain high tariffs on China hours after Beijing warned against any future hikes, as President Trump’s sweeping levies return to the spotlight before his meeting with Xi Jinping. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Wednesday that Trump wants to keep tariffs on China steady at a range of 35% to 50%, while repeating earlier statements that the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate broad emergency tariffs wouldn’t affect most levies. Earlier the same day, China threatened to take “all necessary measures” if the US imposed fresh tariffs, after Washington signaled a probe into their 2020 trade deal would continue. Beijing reiterated it wants to use the existing consultation mechanism to build consensus.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this February 26 convo, JWE President Helena Cobban and the veteran Middle East (West Asia) specialist Bill Quandt dissected the perils of Pres. Trump's decisionmaking chaos. They surveyed the possibly catastrophic costs of any eruption of war; explored some possible non-military exits from the crisis; and looked at both the in-region dynamics of the crisis and the possible divergence of U.S. and Israeli preferences regarding it.This conversation was the second in Part 2 of Just World Ed's ongoing "Gaza & the World" project, which is tracking the still-simmering crisis between the United States and Iran. The first ep was a conversation with Elijah Magnier. Find details and multimedia links to that, here.New eps in this series are being released at 1 pm ET on each of the following days in both video and audio format. Here are the guests who're already confirmed for the coming week:Feb. 27 ~ Ray McGovernMarch 2 ~ Trita ParsiMarch 4 ~ Amb. Chas FreemanMarch 5 ~ Barbara SlavinCheck back at our website www.justworldeducational.org for information on other upcoming episodes that still await confirmation.Support the show

For many years the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was a pariah on the world stage, but the US president is bringing him back into the fold. We know Donald Trump wants the US to do business with the wealthy Gulf Arab state, but what else does he like about the country?Today, The New York Times contributor Noah Shachtman on how Trump wants America to be a lot more like Saudi Arabia and how he's trying to achieve it. Featured: Noah Shachtman, national security reporter and The New York Times contributor

BEST OF - Florida school test scores are improving after cell phones were banned in classrooms. White House Correspondent Jon Decker explains why the administration now says there's no plan for a Trump-Putin summit on the Russia-Ukraine war. ABC News Correspondent Jordana Miller reports that JD Vance warned Gulf Arab and Israeli allies are showing impatience with Hamas, and President Trump says the DOJ should pay him $230 million.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

BEST OF - Florida school test scores are improving after cell phones were banned in classrooms. White House Correspondent Jon Decker explains why the administration now says there's no plan for a Trump-Putin summit on the Russia-Ukraine war. ABC News Correspondent Jordana Miller reports that JD Vance warned Gulf Arab and Israeli allies are showing impatience with Hamas, and President Trump says the DOJ should pay him $230 million.

K.T. McFarland, Former Deputy National Security Advisor, joins Sid to discuss the extensive and strategic moves made by President Trump to reshape the Middle East landscape. She delves into Iran's nuclear threat, the strategic bombings, and how Trump's decisions paved the way for the Abraham Accords and a new generational change in leadership across Gulf Arab countries. The conversation highlights Trump's influence and actions that united the Arabs against common adversaries like Hamas and strengthened alliances with Israel. The discussion also touches upon the geopolitical implications, Europe's energy policies, and the broader vision of creating a Middle East corridor for trade that challenges China's influence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The war in Gaza triggered by Hamas' attacks on Israel in October 2023 sparked several massive aftershocks that have redrawn the geopolitical map of the Middle East. After decimating Hamas, the Israel Defense Forces went on to effectively neuter Hezbollah in Lebanon, depriving Iran of its most potent forward threat to Israel. The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria last December further weakened the so-called Axis of Resistance. With Iran at its most vulnerable in decades, Israel took the fight to the Islamic Republic in a 12-day offensive in June that left its chief regional foe reeling. The aftermath of the violence has significantly altered the balance of power in the Middle East. Israel has emerged as the primary security power in the region, Iran has seen its influence evaporate, and other countries are calibrating their responses to the new reality. How do Arab states, particularly those in the Gulf, which have only recently moved to détente with Iran, respond to Israel's rise in tandem? The Middle East Institute's Annual Conference 2025 unpacked the effects of a re-ordered region on the rest of the world via three panels staffed with experts. These panels examined the impact of the far-reaching changes brought about by almost two years of war.   Panel 3: What Lies Ahead? This concluding panel looked ahead and attempted to divine future trends, including how the Gaza war will end, and the repercussions of changes on Singapore.   Get Ready to Dive Deeper than the Discussion.    Asaad Alshamlan argued that the Middle East cannot be explained by a single grand narrative, highlighting four forces—Gulf–Arab disparities, state fragility, US–China rivalry, and the unresolved Palestinian question—which shape the region's complex landscape. This MEI Persepectives article builds upon his arguments - read here.   Based on the insights he delivered at the event, Mohammed Baharoon unpacks how regional powers, global actors, and non-state players are fueling a revival of old imperial ambitions while introducing new, economy-driven “quantum politics” in the Middle East - read the full piece here.  

On today's podcast: 1) A judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain on the job as she challenges the president’s efforts to oust her over allegations she committed mortgage fraud.2) President Trump criticizes Israel after its bombing of Hamas leaders in the Gulf. Israel's strike on Qatar's capital delivered a major blow to US-supported efforts to normalize ties with Gulf Arab nations and possibly crippled talks for a ceasefire in Gaza. The strike may have ended Qatar's role as a mediator in ceasefire negotiations, with other countries such as Turkey potentially being put on high alert, according to former US and CIA officials.3) Poland shot down drones that crossed into its territory during a Russian air strike on Ukraine, calling it an "act of aggression." The country's airspace was "violated by a huge number of Russian drones", forcing Poland to close its airspace and order citizens in the eastern part of the country to stay indoors. The incident was described as "the most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began", with indications suggesting it was intentional, not accidental.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna about the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what it means for the region.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined once more by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna to discuss the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what might follow. Richard first talks with Ali about the extent of damage U.S. strikes may have inflicted on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and incentives for Washington and Tehran to reengage diplomatically. Next, Richard and Yasmine examine how the conflict has affected relations between Gulf Arab capitals and Tehran, and how Gulf states are adapting to a rapidly shifting region. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to assess how Israel's leadership views the outcome of the war and whether it can translate military into political gains. Finally, Richard talks to Michael about what's next for American policy in the Middle East.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Retired General Noam Tibon tells KAN's Mark Weiss its time to end the war in Gaza , clinch a deal to bring the hostages home and hand over control of the Strip to Egypt and moderate Palestinians, with funding Gulf Arab states. (Photo: Reuters)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group's Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk to discuss the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. They assess what is known about the damage at the nuclear sites and how far the attacks might have set back Iran's nuclear program. They unpack why diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation have broken down and how Gulf Arab capitals view the situation. They also talk through Iran's options to respond and whether there's still a path back to diplomacy.For more, check out our latest Hold Your Fire! episode, “Will he? Won't he? The Trump Iran Show”, and our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck, Yasmine Farouk and Michael Hanna to discuss the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Richard first talks with Ali about how Iranians are experiencing the conflict, the damage Israeli strikes have inflicted on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, missile program and military leadership, and whether Iran's regime might offer concessions to end the war. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to discuss Israeli public sentiment and Prime Minister Netanyahu's objectives in Iran. With Yasmine, he explores how Gulf Arab states view the war. Finally, Richard talks with Michael about President Donald Trump's shift from opposing Israeli strikes on Iran to seemingly supporting them, divisions within his base over the U.S. joining the war, and whether Washington will bomb or can still find a diplomatic off-ramp.For more, check out our latest statement, “How Trump and Tehran Can Find an Eleventh-hour Exit from an Escalating War” and our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Khalil E. Jahshan discuss how the #Gulf Arab states are responding to #Israel's assault on #Iran and explore the broader implications of this conflict for the #GCC nations and the Middle East.

For the last two years, the civil war in Sudan, the largest contemporary war in Africa, has ripped the country apart. As Beverly Ochieng, Wedaeli Chibelushi, and Natasha Booty report at the BBC, “The war, which continues to this day, has claimed more than 150,000 lives. And in what the United Nations has called the world's largest humanitarian crisis, about 12 million people have been forced to flee their homes. There is evidence of genocide in the western region of Darfur, where residents say they have been targeted by fighters based on their ethnicity.”In the latest installment of Solidarity Without Exception, we examine the roots of Sudan's social and humanitarian crisis today, the domestic and international dimensions of the political revolution that swept Sudan in 2019, which led to the overthrow of Omar Al-Bashir, and the violent counterrevolution that, since 2023, has been led by two military factions (and their international allies), deepening the oppression of the Sudanese people and enabling genocidal actions by said military forces. Cohost Blanca Missé speaks with: Nisrin Elamin, assistant professor of African studies and anthropology at the University of Toronto and a member of the Sudan Solidarity Collective, who is currently writing a book on Gulf Arab capital accumulation and land dispossession in central Sudan; and Ibrahim Alhaj Abdelmajeed Alduma, a Virginia-based human rights advocate for Sudan and a communication and disinformation specialist with years of experience working in NGOs with a focus on community development, youth capacity building, and strengthening the role and impact of civil society institutions.Help us continue producing radically independent news and in-depth analysis by following us and becoming a monthly sustainer.Sign up for our newsletterFollow us on BlueskyLike us on FacebookFollow us on TwitterDonate to support this podcastAudio Post-Production: Alina NehlichMusic Credits: Venticinque Aprile (“Bella Ciao” Orchestral Cover) by Savfk |https://www.youtube.com/savfkmusicMusic promoted by https://www.free-stock-music.com Creative Commons / Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

President Trump is wrapping up his Middle East tour today with a visit to the United Arab Emirates. Along the way, he spent a whole day visiting the Gulf Arab state of Qatar. The royal house of Thani rules the tiny but oil-rich nation. While some know it for playing host to the U.S. military ever since the days after the September 11th attacks, the state is often criticized for its closeness to extremist groups. However, despite the complicated relationship, this week, President Trump said Qatar will invest tens of billions in the U.S. tech and defense sectors and will buy more than a hundred brand-new jets from Boeing. National Security Analyst, former Pentagon Staffer, and Iris Independent Research President Dr Rebecca Grant breaks down America's complex relationship with Qatar, and explains why America must make deals with the nation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hugh discusses President Trump's Middle East trip, the reconciliation bill, and Biden's infirmity coverage with Mary Katharine Ham, John Campbell, Salena Zito, and Sarah Bedford.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump is wrapping up his Middle East tour today with a visit to the United Arab Emirates. Along the way, he spent a whole day visiting the Gulf Arab state of Qatar. The royal house of Thani rules the tiny but oil-rich nation. While some know it for playing host to the U.S. military ever since the days after the September 11th attacks, the state is often criticized for its closeness to extremist groups. However, despite the complicated relationship, this week, President Trump said Qatar will invest tens of billions in the U.S. tech and defense sectors and will buy more than a hundred brand-new jets from Boeing. National Security Analyst, former Pentagon Staffer, and Iris Independent Research President Dr Rebecca Grant breaks down America's complex relationship with Qatar, and explains why America must make deals with the nation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Trump is wrapping up his Middle East tour today with a visit to the United Arab Emirates. Along the way, he spent a whole day visiting the Gulf Arab state of Qatar. The royal house of Thani rules the tiny but oil-rich nation. While some know it for playing host to the U.S. military ever since the days after the September 11th attacks, the state is often criticized for its closeness to extremist groups. However, despite the complicated relationship, this week, President Trump said Qatar will invest tens of billions in the U.S. tech and defense sectors and will buy more than a hundred brand-new jets from Boeing. National Security Analyst, former Pentagon Staffer, and Iris Independent Research President Dr Rebecca Grant breaks down America's complex relationship with Qatar, and explains why America must make deals with the nation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Trump's first major overseas trip of his second term is to the same place as his first term, the Middle East. Trump is visiting the Gulf States of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And he is scheduled to meet with Syria's new president for the first time. We'll hear about the significance of that meeting and the deals between the U.S. and Gulf countries being announced. We'll also hear about the personal relationships and family business deals Trump has with various Gulf Arab rulers.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez and Michael Wahid Hanna about U.S. President Donald Trump's forthcoming trip to the Gulf and how much the Iran nuclear talks, the Gaza war and other regional crises will feature on the agenda.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group's U.S. Program Director, Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Director, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump's forthcoming visit to the Gulf. They unpack Washington's priorities for the trip, the role regional peace and security might play in Trump's discussions with Gulf Arab leaders, and what Riyadh and other capitals hope to get from his visit. They assess the state of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the incentives on both sides to reach a deal, and obstacles to diplomacy. They also examine other issues that might feature in Trump's discussions in the Gulf, including Israel's new war plans and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, sanctions relief for Syria and the war in Sudan.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As South Korea reacts to Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment trial verdict, Robert E Kelly joins Georgina Godwin to discuss. Then: can Gulf Arab states prevent a US-Iran war? Plus: what’s being discussed at the first-ever EU-Central Asia summit, the latest from the world of theatre and our weekly ‘What We Learned’ series.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For review:1. Israeli Forensic Doctor Reports Bibas Family Murdered by Terrorists - Not Killed by Airstrike.2. Israel to delay freeing of 600 Palestinian Prisoners after humiliating release ceremony of six Israeli Hostages.3. IDF Warplanes conduct flyover of former top Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's funeral ceremony in Beirut. Defense Minister Israel Katz: “You will specialize in funerals, and we will specialize in victories.” 4. Arab Leaders Meet in Riyadh to Discuss Gaza Reconstruction. The meeting – including Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf Arab nations – took place ahead of a larger Arab summit on March 4, Saudi Arabia said. A meeting of Islamic countries is expected to follow, according to the Egyptian foreign ministry.5. Polish President Duda met with President Trump in Washington to discuss Ukraine. 6, US President Trump announced a second meeting for Ukraine negotiations will occur on 25 Feb in Riyadh.  7. UK and French Leaders to visit Washington for Ukraine discussions with President Donald Trump. Mr. Macron, is due at the White House on Monday and Mr. Starmer is set to follow on Thursday.8. US and Ukraine / EU send competing UN resolutions to General Assembly on 3d year anniversary of the war.9. President Trump Removes Chairman of the Joint Chiefs & Navy CNO. In addition, the USAF Vice Chief of Staff and the Judge Advocate Generals of the Army, Navy and USAF have reportedly also been removed.

This event, organised by the LSE Middle East Centre and the Department of International Relations, LSE was a discussion around the book 'How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare' by Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani and Ali Vaez published by Stanford University Press. Sanctions have enormous consequences. Especially when imposed by a country with the economic influence of the United States, sanctions induce clear shockwaves in both the economy and political culture of the targeted state, and in the everyday lives of citizens. But do economic sanctions induce the behavioural changes intended? Do sanctions work in the way they should? Meet the speakers Narges Bajoghli is Assistant Professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins-SAIS, is an award-winning anthropologist, scholar, and filmmaker. Vali Nasr is the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center. Sanam Vakil is the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. She was previously the Programme's deputy director and senior research fellow, and led project work on Iran and Gulf Arab dynamics. Steffen Hertog is Associate Professor in Comparative Politics at the London School of Economics. He was previously Kuwait Professor at Sciences Po in Paris, lecturer in Middle East political economy at Durham University and a post-doc at Princeton University.

Tensions between Israel and the United Nations over its peacekeeping operations in southern Lebanon have escalated in recent weeks. UN peacekeepers say Israeli forces fired at one of their positions and that tanks forced entry into another of its compounds, injuring 15 peacekeepers. Israel says that Unifil (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) has failed to prevent Hezbollah establishing itself in southern Lebanon, which is one of its main responsibilities, and has ordered Unifil to leave. Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US, European Union, Israel and Gulf Arab states.BBC Middle East correspondents Hugo Bachega and Wyre Davis, in Beirut and Jerusalem respectively, explain what exactly has been happening in Lebanon and the history of the row between Israel and the United Nations.We also hear from Major Shubham Thuwal, a UN peacekeeper from India who is stationed in Lebanon, to learn about what a peacekeeper actually does.Instagram: @bbcwhatintheworld WhatsApp: +44 0330 12 33 22 6 Email: whatintheworld@bbc.co.uk Presenter: William Lee Adams Producers: Julia Ross-Roy, Maria Clara Montoya and Adam Chowdhury Editor: Verity Wilde

Oil prices have been moving higher as the market anticipates Israel's response to Iran's missile strike earlier this week. Since last October, we have recommended selling geopolitical premium in oil, this time, however, it feels different. We assume that attacking Iran's energy facilities would not be Israel's preferred course of action, but rather a secondary or even tertiary response to Iran's possible escalation. We also assign a low probability to the scenario where Iran targets energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries. Still, unlike October 2023 and April 2024, the current situation suggests that, given the low level of oil inventories, the odds favor a sustained geopolitical premium in crude price until the conflict is resolved. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research     This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Follow this week's guest Scott Ritter on X/Twitter @RealScottRitter and his substack http://scottritterextra.com/ and read his latest article here: https://consortiumnews.com/2024/04/15/scott-ritter-the-missiles-of-april/ Find me and the show on social media @DrWilmerLeon on X (Twitter), Instagram, and YouTube Facebook page is www.facebook.com/Drwilmerleonctd   FULL TRANSCRIPT: Announcer (00:06): Connecting the dots with Dr. Wilmer Leon, where the analysis of politics, culture, and history converge. Wilmer Leon (00:14): Welcome to the Connecting the Dots podcast with Dr. Wilmer Leon, and I'm Wilmer Leon. Here's the point. We have a tendency to view current events as though they happen in a vacuum, failing to understand the broader historical context in which they occur. During each episode, my guests and I have probing, provocative, and in-depth discussions that connect the dots between current events in the broader historic context in which they happen, enabling you to better understand and analyze the events that impact the global village in which we live on today's episode. The issue before it says, what can we expect next? Now that Iran has responded militarily to Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria for insight into this, let's turn to my guest. He's a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD. His most recent book is entitled Disarmament in the Time of Parika, and he is of course, Scott Ritter. As always, Scott, welcome to the Connecting the Dots podcast with Wilmer Leon. Scott Ritter (01:37): Well, thanks for having me. Wilmer Leon (01:39): So Pepe Escobar wrote the following. He called it the Shadow Play, and he writes, so this is how it happened. Burns met an Iranian delegation in Oman. He was told the Israeli punishment was inevitable, and if the US got involved, then all US bases will be attacked and the Rai of Horus would be blocked. Burns said, we do nothing if no civilians are harmed. The Iranians said it will be a military base or an embassy. The CIA said, go ahead and do it. Scott Ritter, you've been writing about these issues in Iran for over 20 years. First, your assessment of Pepe Escobar's assessment. Scott Ritter (02:29): Well, I mean, clearly Pepe, he is a journalist. He is a journalist of some renno, and he has a source and he's reporting it. It's plausible. I can't confirm it. I can't sit here and say, I know that this happened. I have no idea if this happened. I do know that the CIA has over the course of time, taken on a shadow diplomacy role because the State Department in implementing America's hegemonic policies has alienated America with so many nations and that normal diplomatic relations are impossible. And so the CIAs assume this responsibility. Indeed, this is why William Burns was selected by Joe Biden to be the director of the CIA. He's not a CIA hand, he's not a man who has involved. He's a diplomat, former ambassador to Russia, and he's a man who has written a book called The Back Channel, which describes his approach, the back channel approach to resolving things. Burns has carried out similar meetings with Russia when trying to reopen arms control venues or talk about possible prisoner exchanges. (03:55) It's burns that takes the lead on these things. The CIA has played an important role in the past in facilitating dialogue between the Palestinians and the Israelis. The CIA had a very big role to play in making that happen. The CIA was behind the secret negotiations with the Taliban that led to the American withdrawal. So would it surprise me that the CIA has connectivity with Iran? Absolutely not. Especially given Burns' role and the importance of the back channel to the Biden administration. I think the Israelis might find it somewhat of a shock that the United States green lit the Iranian response. But then again, we're living in very strange times where the lack of, let's just call it the deterioration of relations between the United States and Israel is real. I've said for some time now that no American president or presidential candidate has won the White House by turning his back on Israel. (05:09) And I've also noted that no Israeli Prime Minister stays in power by turning his back on the United States. And yet we have a situation today where Joe Biden, a sitting president, is starting to turn his back on Israel because of the policies of Benjamin Netanyahu's government policies that are being carried out in direct defiance of American instructions to the contrary. So we live in unprecedented times, and it would seem to me that the United States has made it clear that their policy objectives, strategic policy objectives, and again, just a quick background, remember, part of the reason why we withdrew from Afghanistan in August of 2021 is that we were delinking ourselves from a two decade long commitment to the middle. We were going to lower our profile there as part of our pivot to the Pacific to confront China. And so we have, we no longer are actively implementing the Carter Era doctrine of guaranteed American military intervention. (06:21) Anytime something in the Middle East goes south that we don't like, we don't do Desert Storm anymore. We don't do Operation Iraqi freedom anymore. We don't do the invasion of Afghanistan anymore. We're not looking for a fight. We're looking to avoid a fight. And one of the reasons is that Iran has emerged as a very significant regional power with a tremendous amount of military capability. Iran is also a major player in the regional and global economy, and it's incumbent upon the United States to do what we can stabilize this economy to make sure that it doesn't go south, especially in an election year where the old James Carville mantra, it's the economy stupid factors in so large. So we don't want a war or a conflict with Iran that could lead to the shutting down of the straight or moves. This would've a devastating impact on global energy security. (07:20) Oil prices would go through the roof at a time again to remind people when Joe Biden has lowered the strategic petroleum reserve down to less than 17 days worth of reserves. So if there was suddenly a shutdown in oil transit, we'd be in trouble. Huge trouble in an election year, which is for Joe Biden. So it doesn't, what I'm trying to say is a long way of saying that there's a lot of reason to believe the reporting that's put out by Pepe Esquire. And again, when I say believe the reporting, I'm not challenging Pepe Escobar. I understand I'm saying that every journalist has sources and some sources are better than others. But what I'm saying is my assessment of the information that Pepe is reporting from the source would be that this is extraordinarily plausible, that it makes sense that this would indeed happen. Wilmer Leon (08:15): That was my takeaway, whether it was Bill Burns or whether it was Mr. Burns from whatever that cartoon is. I was really focused more on the point that there was a dialogue between the United States and the parties involved, and that those parties came to a consensus. In fact, when I read, it might have been, I guess it was Thursday, that Iran had seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Straits of Horus. Then there was the missile launching, and then that drones were used as the kind of foray or entree into all of this and that the drones traveled as far as they did. I said, oh, well, Iran was really sending a message more than they were an attack. And I think the message was, and is if you're looking for trouble, you found it and you found a very big bag of it, and you really don't want to mess around with this. It seems as though the Biden administration is starting to get that message. I don't know that Netanyahu, I think it seems like it's falling on deaf ears in Israel. Scott Ritter (09:45): What Iran did here is I have said that I've called it one of the most impressive military victories in modern history. Wilmer Leon (09:57): In fact, let me interrupt and say, folks, you need to read Scott's piece, the missiles of April. You can find it in Consortium News, Scott, you can tell me where else, but it's a phenomenal assessment of what recently transpired. Scott Ritter. Scott Ritter (10:14): Well, thank you very much. It was originally put out on my substack, it's scott ritter extra.com, but then Joe Luria, who I have a very good relationship, he's the editor of Consortium News, asked permission to publish it with Consortium News. And then he and I had a discussion and he asked some questions, follow on questions based upon the article, and I gave him some answers. (10:38) So he added some material. So for anybody who read my article on my substack, there's additional material in on the consortium news variant. You might want to read that as well. It's just basically an update when you write things about moving targets such as breaking news, you write based upon the data that's available. And in the time between, I published on my Substack and I spoke with Joe Lauria, there was additional information necessary that provided additional clarity to some of the points I made. So it's not that I changed anything in terms of my assessments, although that's possible too. When you get new information, assessments can change, they should change, and you shouldn't be afraid to change them. But my assessment regarding the Iranian, the efficacy of the Iranian attack remains the same, one of the most impressive military victories in time. Now, people say, well, wait a minute, how could that be? (11:29) They didn't blow up Israel. They didn't destroy anything. War is an extension of politics by other means. That's what everybody needs to understand. Military victories basically mean that you have achieved something through the use of military force. That's impressive, especially an impressive military victory. What Iran did on April 14th, on April 13th, 14th, and this attack is established deterrence, supremacy over Israel. Iran has had a problem with what I would say, making the world understand its declaratory policy regarding deterrence, it's deterrence strategy. Deterrence is basically a policy posture that says, if you want to hit me, understand that I'm going to come in afterwards and pummel you to death, that the price you're going to pay for hitting me is going to be so great that you don't want to hit me. I'm not threatening to hit you first. I'm sitting here saying, live and let live, but if you attack me, the price you're going to pay will be so overwhelming that it won't be worth what you thought you were going to achieve by hitting me in the first place. (12:44) Iran has established this deterrence superiority over the United States. We saw that when the United States assassinated QM Soleimani in 2020, the Iranians responded with a missile attack against the Alad airbase that didn't kill any Americans. It was telegraphed well in advance, but the purpose was to demonstrate the Americans that we can reach out and touch you anywhere, anytime with devastating force, and there's nothing you can do to stop this, nothing you can do. So now we get to William Burns meeting with his Iranian counterparts, and when they say, and we will strike American bases, burns is going, and they can, and if they do, there's nothing we could do to stop it and we will suffer horrific losses. Therefore, Mr. President, we should heed what the Iranians are saying. This is deterrent superiority over the United States, that the United States understands the consequences of attacking. Iran is not willing to live with those consequences. (13:45) They'll be severe even more so in an election year where any disruption of the economy is politically fatal to the incumbent seeking reelection. So they have successfully done that with the United States. Iran has also used missiles. Again, part of declaratory policy. It doesn't have to be necessarily spoken policy, but demonstrative, and we've seen Iran use missiles to strike targets in Iran, in Syria, Pakistan, in Pakistan. Wilmer Leon (14:17): In fact, on that Pakistan point, that was what about a month ago, maybe month and a half ago, and when I heard that Iran had sent, I think it was a cruise missile into Pakistan, I did my best to calculate how far that missile traveled. And then I checked, well, what's the distance between Tehran and Tel Aviv? It was about the same distance. And I said, I think Iran is sending a message to the Israel that we can strike Tel Aviv if we so choose. Scott Ritter (14:57): Yeah, I mean, first of all, just so people understand historically during the Gulf War, and not too many people know this, so Israel was very perturbed about Saddam Hussein's scud missiles hitting Israeli cities and locations, and they were threatening direct military intervention, which would've destroyed the coalition that George W. Bush had built up. And so we were doing everything we could to convince the Israelis that we had the scud problem under Control Pro. And you mean that you were personally involved in doing that? Yeah, no, this was my part of the war that, I mean, first of all, I wasn't a general, I wasn't a colonel. I wasn't lieutenant Colonel. I wasn't a major, I was just a captain. But as a captain, I played a bigger role than one would normally expect from a captain. I mean, when my name gets briefed to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, and when General Schwarz cov not only fires me, but arrests me because of what I'm doing, I'm having an impact larger than what I was wearing on my shoulder, and I'm pretty proud of the work I did during the Gulf War, but that's beside the point. (16:04) The point is that Israel was being told, don't intervene because we've got it under control. But Israel needed to make a statement, and it was a statement being made not to Iraq, because what they did is they brought out a Jericho missile, which is a nuclear capable missile, but also can have control warheads, and they fired this missile into the Mediterranean Sea, and when you measure the distance that it went, it's exactly the distance from Israel to Baghdad and what the Israelis were telling, not the Iraqis, because the Iraqis couldn't monitor the attack and it wasn't publicly announced. They were telling the Americans who were monitoring that, if you don't solve this problem, we're going to solve it for you, and this is the weapon that we're going to use. And it was a wake up call. I remember when that happened. We're all like, stop. (16:55) We were only getting two hours sleep at night. No more sleep at night. Do everything you can to stop these Iraqi missiles from flying. We never did, but Israel stayed out of the war. But my point is, when you talk about, because to the lay person, they might be like, come on Wilmer, you're getting a little too creative. They're a little too conspiratorial. Wilmer Leon (17:17): I heard that. I heard that last Saturday night. I was at a buddy's house and he said to me, I walk into his house and CNN is on, as it always is, chirping in the background. And so finally he says to me, so what do you think? I said, think about what he said. What do you think about the Iraq? I said, oh. I said, man, that was collaborated. That was done with collaboration. He said, man, you always come in here with this junk. I said, well, okay. So I hear that a lot. Scott Ritter (17:53): Well, but in this case, it's not junk because I'm telling you, as somebody who has been in the technical analysis business of ballistic missiles for some time now, there are various ways to send a message. To give you an example, in the arms control world, sometimes the way to send a message is to open up telemetry channels that are normally closed down and launch a missile test. You're not saying anything. You don't put out a press release, but the people monitor because you don't want to say anything. North Korea does this all the time, all the time. They open up some telemetry channels and they just go, Hey, listen to this. And they send a to the Sea of Japan, and the technicians are going, ohoh. They got, oh, they did this capability. Oh, no. And then they're writing secret reports, and that message gets, meanwhile, the public is just sitting there, going to the beach, surfing, smoking dope, and doing whatever we do because we are not meant to get upset about this or worried about it. (18:52) It's a subtle message being sent to leadership through the intelligence agency. So your notion that the distance mattered because Iran didn't need to fire at that distance. They just could have fired at a closer range, whatever, but to fire at that distance is a signal to the people who are that distance away, that what we're doing here we can do here. But the problem is the Israelis weren't listening. This is the problem. Iran has through very indirect and direct means. First of all, Iran has never issued a public declaratory policy on deterrence and ballistic missiles until now. And it's one of the weaknesses of Iran is that they didn't make it clear what the consequences would be. The United States got it because they hit us and we're smart enough to go, oh, we don't want that again. Pakistan sort of gets it, but I mean ISIS and Syria, when they got hit with missiles, ISIS isn't going to sit there and go, oh, you're going to hit us with missiles, so we're not going to carry out terrorism anymore. (20:03) No, that was a punitive attack. The same thing with the various missile strikes in Iraq. It was punitive attack. It wasn't meant to be a declaratory policy statement. And so here you have a situation where Israel just isn't getting it because Israel believes that it has deterrent supremacy over Iran. And why would Israel believe that? I don't know. Maybe they've assassinated a whole bunch of Iranian scientists in Iran with no consequence. Maybe they've carried out covert direct action sabotage in Iran blowing up nuclear related facilities with no consequence. Maybe they've struck Iranian revolutionary Guard command positions in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iraq, inflicting casualties with no consequence. So maybe Israel believed that it had established deterrent supremacy over Iran. Therefore, when they saw a meeting at the Iranian consulate in Damascus of these major people plotting the next phase of the operation against Israel, they said, take it out. (21:04) There won't be any consequence because the Iranians are afraid of us. The Iranians won't strike us because we have deterrent supremacy. Iran believes that if they attack us, we will come down on them tenfold. And so they struck the consulate and Iran went, guess what guys? Nope, it's over. We're done with the subtlety. We warned you don't attack our sovereign territory. The consulate is sovereign territory. We're going to respond. But now the problem with the Iranian response is you have to put yourself in the Iranian shoes because the last thing Iran wants, it's just like the United States. They don't want a war with Israel. They don't want it, as they said in the Godfather, it's bad for business, it's bad for business. And business right now for Iran is improving. They're members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China has brokered a reproachment with Saudi Arabia, dismantling an American strategy of creating a Sunni shield against the Shia crescent and provoking permanent conflict that would empower American defense industry, Israeli security credibility and economic co prosperity between that part of the ward and Europe with Israel in the middle. (22:25) Israel's going, wow, we're back in the game, guys, when Israel was Benjamin Netanyahu, for all the criticism that people have out there, and I'm one of those biggest critics understand that on October 6th, he was on top of the world on October 6th, he had created a geopolitical reality that had Israel normalizing relations with the Gulf Arab states, Israel becoming a major player in a major global economic enterprise, the India, middle East, economic C and the world, not talking about a Palestinian state anymore. Israel was entering, becoming legitimate. It was like Michael Corleone and the Godfather when he was saying, I'm going to put all that behind me and I'm going to become legitimate, reached out and just drag them back in by October 7th. And then Israel was exposed for the criminal enterprise that it is, and now Israel has collapsed. But Iran, that was the Israeli process. (23:27) Iran is sitting here saying, we don't want to war. We're members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. We normalized relations with Saudi Arabia. We have an axis of resistance that's holding Israel in check and these plans, Hezbollah is very strong. The militias in Iraq and are strong. The Anella movement in Yemen, the Yemen strong, but we don't want to provoke war. What we want is to become economically viable again. The promise that we, the theocracy have made to the Iranian people over time that trust us, things will get better. We're in that, Hey, you trusted us. Now things are about to get better. We're joining bricks together with Saudi Arabia, so we're going to work with Saudi Arabia and these powerful economic interests that no longer are turning their backs on us to create economic opportunity. And the last thing Iran needed is a war with Israel. It's bad for business. (24:29) It's bad for business. And so now the Iranians are like, how do we set declaratory policy to achieve deterrent supremacy? I mean, not supremacy, superiority supremacy is where you have everybody just totally intimidated. Superiority is where you put the thought in people's mind, and they now need to tell the Israelis, you can't attack us or the price you're going to pay is tenfold. Normally you do that. It's like going in the boxing ring. Mike Tyson, even now, I don't know if you've been watching his training videos of him getting ready for this fight he's got in July 20th. The man's a beast. I'm intimidated if I could 57, what he's doing. Wilmer Leon (25:10): Well, lemme tell you. I don't know if you saw the report of the guy that was kicking the back of his seat on the airplane, and he came over. He kept asking the guy, Hey man, can you stop kicking my seat? And the guy wouldn't leave him alone. And the folks on the plane said, finally he came over the top of that seat like Iran and pummeled the guy. They had to carry the guy off the plane and a stretcher. Scott Ritter (25:42): Well see, that's deterrence supremacy. There you go. Deterrence supremacy is when I jump into the ring with Tyson and Tyson knocks my face in, kicks my teeth out, and I'm on the ground hospitalized and bites your ear, pardon? And bites your ear. That is a bonus. Yes. (26:02) The deterrence superiority is where I jump in the ring, ent Tyson comes up, takes the fist right to my nose and just touches it. But he doesn't in a way that I'm in my stance, but he's already there and I'm like, oh, oh, I got a problem. Yeah, okay. I don't really want to be in this ring, Mike. It was a misunderstanding. I'm backing off. I'm just going to go out here and pee my pants in the parking lot. So that's what Iran needed to do. But how do you do this? It's very delicate operation. That's why this was one of the most impressive military opera victories in modern history because what Iran did was make all the demonstration necessary to show potential, and in the end, they hit a base nem. And this is important for your audience to understand. The Naam airbase is the single most heavily protected spot on earth when it comes to anti-ballistic missile defense. (26:55) There's no spot on earth that's better defended than nem. It has at the heart of this defense, a and I'll give you a fancy name, a N TP Y two X-Band radar sounds like, well, not one, not one, but two. Well, it's the number two radar, not two radars. Wilmer Leon (27:13): No, I'm saying because I got one over my house. Yeah, they got two over 2.0. This is 2.0 man. Scott Ritter (27:20): They got this radar there that has the ability to do overheard the horizon surveillance, but it's not just the radar, which is the most sophisticated radar of its type in the world. It's linked into the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization in the United States Strategic Command and the satellites that we have over hanging over the area. So all of that's linked in into a common command center that's shared with the Israelis. So this data is fed to the Israelis and around Nati. (27:48) And why is Naam important? I don't know. The F 35 I fighters are there. This is Israel's best fighter plane, their strategic deterrent. They have F fifteens, F sixteens, and they do other secret things there as well because of the notice that they were given, if I understand it, they were able to move those F 35. So the F, again, it was coordinated 100%. I mean, we'll get to that in a second. But they have the arrow two and arrow three missiles, which are joint Israeli American projects are deployed around Nevada. David Sling, which is another anti-ballistic missile capability, is deployed around Nevada. Advanced Patriot missiles are deployed around Nevada. And the US Thad system is deployed around Nevada. The bottom line is they have, and there's Iron Dome as well. So what they have is this multi-layered defense using the world's best anti-ballistic missile technology linked to the world's best surveillance and tracking technology. (28:56) And you read the literature on this stuff, we hit a bullet with a bullet. Okay, wow, you guys are good. Now here's the other thing. It's all specifically tailored for one threat and one threat only. Iranian medium range ballistic missiles. That's all it's geared to do. It's not like there's confusion. It's not like you have a multitude of missions. One mission, Iranian medium range missiles. Okay? So now that's like me watching Mike Tyson training videos, and I'm watching the training and I'm like, I got 'em. I can move. I got this guys, I got this. I go into training, bullet, hit a bullet, hit a bullet. I got this. And so now, Mike Tyson, Iran, they go a step further. Not only do they do the Pepe Escobar advanced notice, they build the attack in a way that says, Hey, this is really happening. They announce that the launch of the drones, and these aren't just any drones, guys. (29:57) These are slow, moving, loud drones. So you couldn't get a better air alarm system than what Iran gave Israel. They unleashed the drones, and here the drones go. Now Israel's got, they're like flying bumblebees six hours of advanced notice, which gives the United States time to say, take your F 30 fives out, anything value out. But the other thing the Iranians did is they told the United States, see, I think they went a step further. The Iranians made it clear that they will only strike military targets that were related to the action. Iran's whole argument. And again, I know in the West, we tend to rule our eyes, like when Russia says, we acted in Ukraine based upon Article 51, self-defense, preemptive self-defense, the Caroline Doctrine, all the people who hate Russia go, no, no. That was a brutal roar of aggression. Unprovoked. No, the Russians actually have a cognitive legal case because that's how Russia operates based upon the rule of law. (30:57) Now, the rule of law, Wil, as we all know, can be bent, twisted, manipulated. I'm not saying that the Russians have the perfect case. What I'm saying is the case that Russia has made is cognizable under law, right? It's defendable. You could take it to a court and it's not going to be tossed out asr. It's not Tony Blinken rules based order. It is not. And so now the Saudis, or not the, I'm sorry, the Iranians, they have been attacked and they have cited Article 51 of the UN charter as their justification. But now you can't claim to be hiding behind the law and then just totally break the law yourself. If Iran had come in, you can. You're the United States, correct? But that's the rules based international, not the law based international. That's the difference between the two. The rules say we can do whatever we want. (31:50) The law says no, you're constrained by the law. So in order to justify self-defense, Iran had to limit its retaliation to the immediate threat that was posed by those who attacked them, which means you can hit the two air bases where the airplanes flew out. And there's a third site that nobody's talking about yet. Is that the CIA site? Well, it's the 8,200, the Sgin site on Golan Heights that's looking out into Damascus. And according to the Iranians, that's the site that gathered the intelligence about the Iranians being in the consulate and then shared that intelligence with the airplanes coming in. And so these three targets are the three. Now, in addition to that, Iran is allowed to strike facilities and locations that are involved in the defense of these three things. So the ballistic missile defense capability becomes a legitimate target. But now, so Iran has to hit these three, and so they've broadcasted, we're coming, we're coming. (32:55) And that gives the United States do something politically smart, which is to tell the Israelis, we will defend you, but we will not participate in any Israeli counter attack. So we've limited the scope and scale of our participation in this. And so we came together, we started shooting down these drones, creating a fiction of Iranian incompetence, Iranian lack of capability. So this is part of the plan. This is all part of the plan. Now, Iran didn't sit down with the United States and say, this is what we're going to do. This is what we want you to do. Iran is scripting it for them. I mean, this is basically United States going, damn, I forgot my lines. Here you go. Here come the drones. Here come the drones. Shoot them down. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Thank you. And so we're shooting it down, and then we're sending the cruise missiles, just in case you don't know, we're launching them live on TV Here. (33:51) Let me show you a closeup of what they look like so you understand the operational parameters of the system. And off go, the cruise missiles. Don't shoot pigeons, shoot cruise missiles. So now they're shooting. But then as they're doing this, the Iranians are sitting there going, okay, so we sent the drones. What's lightening up, guys? First of all, what people don't understand is before all this happened, the Iranians did a very targeted cyber attack and shut down. They attacked the Iron Dome system. Now, why do you want to attack the Iron Dome system but not attack the others? Because the Iron Dome system isn't designed to take down big ballistic missiles. It's designed to take down the other stuff. Medium range cruise missiles. No, well, cruise missiles and drones, low flying. It's actually designed to take down kaka rockets and the Hamas rockets. Okay? That's what it's supposed to do. (34:44) So you disrupt this so that the other systems have to take priority, and then the arrives, you go, oh, thank you very much. Now, some of the drones that were sent in aren't armed with explosives, but armed with radars and signals intelligence collection, which they're broadcasting the data back to Iran. These are guys are very sophisticated ladies and gentlemen. These aren't amateurs you're dealing with. And so they're sitting in going here. They come turn it on, collect, thank you. And now they have their targeters looking at a big map going, okay, we got a radar here. We got here. Okay, now they're shooting. Okay, we got missile launchers here, boom, boom, boom. It's all there. And they've looked at all. Then they say, okay, remember, because the goal now is to get the glove to touch the nose. The goal isn't to hit the knockout. (35:33) So they say, what do we need to do to demonstrate capability the Iranians used? Now, there's some mixed reporting out here. The problem is I like everybody else, I'm held hostage with the Iranians. I don't get to go on the ground anymore and look at the debris and do technical analysis. I used to do that, and I used to be able to come back. One of the things we did with the Iraqis, just so people understand, I am not the dumbest marine in the world. I'm one of the dumbest Marines in the world, but I do have some capability based upon experience. And when my time as a weapons inspector, I worked with the Israelis, their technical intelligence people on looking at debris of the missiles that Iraq fired against Israel. And we were able to ascertain several different variants of scud missiles that have different capabilities that the Iraqis had been denying or not declaring. (36:27) And by coming back to them with the technical intelligence from the debris on the ground, the Iraqis had to admit to certain capabilities that they had been denying. And this is important when you're trying to be able to stand before the world and say, we understand the total picture of Iraqi ballistic missile capability, and we can certify that we can account for it all. Because imagine going before the security council and saying that only to have the Israelis go, yes, but what about variant 3D alpha four? Well, I don't understand what you're talking about. What's 3D alpha four? That's the point. You're making a report and you don't understand what we're talking about, which means you don't know everything, do you? I don't like to be in that position as an expert, or I want to know everything. And so we did, and we got the Iraqis to come clean. (37:14) So when I say we could account for Iraq's ballistic missile program, we could account for every aspect of it. So I don't get to do that right now. So I'm at a disadvantage where I have to rely upon information. So I don't know if Iran used their hypersonic missiles or not. I don't know that, okay, reports, it's reported. There's reports that they did, and then there's reports that they didn't, and it's conflicting. The most recent press TV report and press TV is a organ of the Iranian state, says that they did use the fat two missiles against thetan airfield. So I'm going to run with that, but I want to put a big caveat on that, that I don't know for certain. (38:01) But we do know, just looking at the characteristics of the missiles that came in, that they used at least three different kinds of, they used more than that, but three that were designed to put the glove on the nose, other missiles that were sent were designed to be shot down again as part of the intelligence collection process. So you send in an older ballistic missile that comes on a ballistic missile trajectory. The first thing that you do by doing that is you are training the defense systems. These Iranians are smart. They understand these things. You're training them because you see, there's a whole bunch of computers, software, artificial intelligence. This is the proof that ai, please don't do it better than ai. Is the brain a train brain? Because ai, listen to what everybody's talking about. I mean, I get this phone call. I don't know if you get this up, Scott, I'd like to take the transcripts of your discussions and use them to train my ai. I don't know if you've ever received that request. And I'm like, no, I don't want you to do that. But I just personally go. But the point is, that's how ai, it's not artificial intelligence, ladies and gentlemen. It's just programmed, just programmed in a different way. And you can program in stupidity, which the Iranians said, which they usually do. Let's program in stupidity. Wilmer Leon (39:24): Well, for example, just for a quick example, that's why facial recognition technology fails to the degree that it does. It's limited by the abilities and capabilities of the people that are programming it. That's why facial recognition technology doesn't work on Asian people, and it doesn't work on people of color. Dammit, I'm the wrong race. I could have put that a long time ago. Go ahead, Scott Ritter (39:57): Touche. So the Iranians are programming the ai. They're sending missiles in, and the system is starting to normalize to come up with a, because it's wartime now. So now you're actually detecting tracking and firing. Then what you do is you throw in, it's like a pitcher, fastball, fastball, fastball, changeup, and here comes the changeup. First changeup they do is, and I don't know the sequence that they did this, but we see the video evidence. There's a warhead that comes in, and again, it's about timing. So you're sending these missiles in. Now they have separating warheads. So what happens when a missile has a separating warhead is the radar's picking one target. (40:44) All of a sudden, the radar is dealing with two targets, but it's not just two targets. When you separate the warhead from the missile body, the missile body starts to tumble and it starts sending differentiating signals, and it's no longer a ballistic trajectory. So the computer's going, oh my God, what's happening here? Meanwhile, this warhead's going this way, it's tracking that, and it has to make a decision. Which one? Which one? Which one, which one, which one? This one, pick this warhead. So now they've trained it to discriminate onto this warhead, which is what they want. Now, you'd say, why would they want to look at that warhead? You'll find out the warhead comes in and they're timing. It's like a track coach got the timer, warhead comes in, and the missiles fire up to hit it, and you go, we got it. We now know what the release point is for the missiles being fired. (41:29) So now they send in this other missile, it comes in, warhead separates the AI says, go with the warhead baby. They ignore this thing, which is good. It's just a distraction. They're focused on the warhead, they're on the clock. Everything's getting queued up just the way it's supposed to be. Everything's optimized. We're going to take this thing, a bullet hits a bullet baby, and all of a sudden, the warhead right before the launch on the ground, fires off a whole bunch of decoys. It's like a shotgun shell. And the computer goes, damn, what the hell just happened? We don't know. It's going crazy, trying to differentiate between all this stuff. And they're firing a whole bunch of missiles now in panic overload, and they're trying to deal with this. And meanwhile, they have a warhead here. They accelerated these shotgun shells out. So they're going faster. (42:17) Now, the computer's adapting to that. Oh God, what do we do? Fire, fire, fire. That warhead's hanging back. It's not the priority right now. And then once everything's committed, you see it on the film, boom. It has a booster engine on it. It gets fired through the chaff. Nothing's intercepting it, bam hits the ground. But not only that, as it comes in, it makes an adjustment. I don't know if people saw that. It comes in and you see it go up, up. Again, terminal adjustment to hit the precise target it wanted to hit. Iran sent a couple of those in, and they took out the Iron Dome sites, et cetera. A signal just got you. And they know that the Israelis are smart. They know that there's a bunch of Israeli guys who were smarter than I am that I used to work with who were looking at all this stuff going, oh God, they got us. (43:11) They got us. Damn. Now we come to Nevada, and it's the same thing. They send in the missiles. This is the most heavily layered system in the world. They send in the missiles, and this one's not even as sophisticated. It just comes in. They release it, hyper accelerates down. Then wham hits the ground and the Israelis, because the Israelis are like, okay, we got it. We got it. We don't have it. It's like a catcher used to catch 70 mile an hour fastballs, and it hits him in the head, and then the guy fires the 102 mile an hour. Bam. What happened? I wasn't ready for that. It comes in and it hits it. Wilmer Leon (43:47): Well catcher called a change up, and a fastball came through. Fast ball came in. Scott Ritter (43:52): So then they came into Na, Nevada, and they touched Naum at least five times. The Iranians were saying seven times. I would probably go with five. And the reason why I say this is that there is a chance the most heavily defended space on earth, there's a chance that they got two of 'em. I'm going to concede that point to the Israelis and the Americans that you put all these hundreds of billions of dollars into building something, and you got two out of seven, but five hit. But the idea, none of them were meant to be a knockout blow. Each one was just a, Hey, hey. And the Israelis know that They're sitting there going, and now they've come to the realization, and this is the whole point. After all of this, the Israelis have come to the realization that Iran can reach out and touch us anytime it wants to, any place it wants to, and there's nothing we can do to stop them. So now the Israelis are in a quandary because Iran has war is an extension of politics by other means. (44:51) So Iran has established a political reality using military means to establish a deterrence superiority without creating the conditions that mandate an automatic Israeli response. You see, they've allowed the situation a narrative to be developed by the United States and Israel that says, Iran sucks. He sent everything in there. We shot it all down. We're better than they are. We actually established deterrence over Iran by telling the Iranians that no matter what they do, you thought you were Mike Tyson. You came in and swang gave us all your punches. You miss, you, miss you, miss you, miss you, miss. It's like, Ali, I'm still here. You didn't touch me. You punched yourself out. Can't touch this. That's the narrative that Iran was allowing the West to do. But the reality though is that the Israelis got down there, and there was an interesting text, I don't know if you saw it by, not text, but a post by an Israeli insider who has connectivity with the war council. (45:58) And he said, if the Israeli public heard what was being said in the War Council, 4 million people will be leaving Israel right now. I'm going to tell you right now what was said in the war Council, Iran can destroy us. Iran can flatten us. There's nothing we can do if we allow this to happen to remain unanswered. We've lost everything that we've fought for over the past several decades. This deterrence, supremacy that we thought we had has gone forever. Nobody will ever respect us. Nobody will ever fear us, and therefore people will attack us, and we will be in an untenable situation Wilmer Leon (46:39): Wait a minute. That's that's very important politically, because that is part of the whole Zionist ideology, is we we're the persecuted people, and you all need us to protect you because the wolves are always at the door. And now what is the reality is all that insurance money you've been paying for those insurance policies, you've wasted your money. Scott Ritter (47:15): Absolutely. I used to live in Turkey, and when I've traveled through the planes of Turkey, they have shepherds with their flocks, and out there amongst the flocks are the sheep dogs. I don't know if you've ever seen a picture of an Anatolian sheep dog. Yes, big. Wilmer Leon (47:34): I'm a big dog guy. Yes. Scott Ritter (47:35): Okay, so these are like bears, right? Some of them are bigger than bears. And I remember we were walking once in a Kurdish village and we got too close to the sheep, and all of a sudden, these two things coming at us, and they're bigger than we are. I mean, these are bigger than humans, and they're coming at us, and they're going to kill us. And we knew that it was just all over. Then you hear, and the shepherd gives whatever signal, and the sheep dogs stop, and then they come up and they sit down and you pet 'em. (48:04) They have no ears because their ears have been chewed off. Their noses are scars their faces. They got these giant collars with spikes on to protect their throat, their faces like that, because they fight wolves. They hold the wolves off. Israel has been telling the world that we are the anatolian sheep dog. We are here and we will protect you. The rest of the world, the sheep from the wolves, they're getting ready. What Iran just did is went, took off the cloak, then went, you're just a sheep. You're just a sheep. We are the wolves. You're just a sheep. And the sheep's going, I don't want everybody to know this. We were faking them out, that we were the anatolian sheep dog, but we're really just a sheep. So that's a political problem for the Israelis, and this is important, and this is probably the most important part of this discussion, believe it or not, this isn't about Israeli security. This isn't about a real threat to, because Iran is a responsible nation. When Iran talks about deterrence, Wilmer Leon (49:07): oh, wait a minute now, wait a minute. Now, Scott, now you've crossed the Rubicon is Iran is responsible? Yeah, Iran is a, they're ravaging. Crazy. Raghead. Come on, Scott. Scott Ritter (49:25): That may be true, but they're ravaging, crazy Raghead who operate based upon a law-based system as opposed to a rule-based system. Not only that, a law-based system that is based on thousands of years of history and culture, right? I mean, that's their own national culture. I mean, a lot of people go the theocracy, the theocracy, theocracy, yes, but Persian. Persian, Persian. I understand that this is a civilized people who have been around. They invented cataract surgery. They invented a lot of stuff. They invented the agrarian watering system, the irrigation, the irrigation system. They invented the wheel. I think they probably did. (50:20) We've been reinventing the wheel over time. But mathematics, psychology, the whole thing, sociology, all comes out of there. And today, you see it when you Google International Math Olympics, the teams that are coming in at top are Chinese teams and Iranian teams, MIT, California technology, they're coming in down at the bottom. They're not one in this thing behind it. The Indian Institute of Technology, the Indians are getting up there too. They have good applied science and good applied skills. And it's not just that. I mean, to give you an example, the Iranians have the highest percentage of peer reviewed, not percentage, the highest number of peer reviewed PhD thesis published per year. So it's not like, excuse me, Iraq, I, forgive me for this, but under Sadam Hussein, where you went to an Iraqi university, it used to have a good reputation, but they were just punching out, handing out diplomas to Kuai. (51:26) And the thugs who went in there and said, I went to school. Here's your diploma. See, I'm a doctor. No, in Iran, you earn it. You go to the school, you earn it, and you earn it the old fashioned way, peer reviewed, which means your thesis leaves. Iran goes out of ranks the world, the experts, they review it, they come back and they say, this is PhD level work. Wilmer Leon (51:46): I just had a conversation with another dear friend. And when you look at their diplomats, when you look at their leadership, many of them are engineers. President Amad, the first time I went to Iran, I got to sit for two hours with then former president Amadinijad has a PhD in engineering and teaches engineering at the University of Tehran. I sat there for two hours listening to this cat going, oh my God. Yeah, he's not what? (52:22) He was sold deep. He's not some short madman. He's a short, brilliant man. Scott Ritter (52:31): A brilliant madman maybe. But the point is, brilliant dude, genius. No, they're all that way. They all have extraordinary. First of all, let's stop picking on Ayatollahs. If people understood what it took to become an ayatollah in Iran, the level of seminarian study, what you have to know, not just about. And here's the important thing about the Shia theocracy for all the Shia people out there, if I got this wrong, please forgive me, but it's my understanding, especially in the Iranian model, they have something called the Marja, which is basically, it's like your flock. (53:14) What do they call it? A diocese in the Catholic church, right? Congregation. Thank you. There's what we want, congregation. It's a congregation. Now, you have to, because in Iran, it's not just about knowing the religion, but having a philosophy that is derived from absolute understanding of the religion that is approachable to the people. It is religious democracy, because now I've done my ayatollah training and they go, Huma, I can't do the cross. Sorry, God, I just made a huge mistake. Forgive me. But they anoint you. They say, you're the dude. You're the guy that can do it. But now, to survive, you have to write a document that says, this is my religious philosophy as it applies to something today. There's a name for that, the, or something. Again, I apologize, but they put that out there. Now. People read it, the public, it's there for the public. (54:10) And then people go, I like this guy. I'm going to hang out at his marja for a little bit and see what he does. Now, if they come to the Marja and he's not impressive, then the Marja dissipates and they shut 'em down. They say, you failed. You couldn't win the people. It's not just about imposing religion on people. It's about getting the people to buy into what you're saying religiously. Wilmer Leon (54:35): That's what the Ayatollah Khomeini was doing when he was in exile in France. Scott Ritter (54:39): Bingo. Okay. But you have compete, for instance, Al Sistani in Iraq, he has a competing the Najaf. Marges compete with the coal Marges that compete with Carval, which compete with, there's competing margins. And even within Comb, there's different margins. Wilmer Leon (54:59): I'm drawing a blank on the guy in Iraq that was raising all kind of hell. Muqtada al Sadr. There you go. Yeah. Who is the son, if I have it right? He's the son of a the, Grand Ayatollah Scott Ritter (55:17): yeah, yeah, yeah. And he, in order to become credible, had to go to Cole and study and learn things because everybody, when he was out there talking, he had a lot of personality. He had the name, but people are going, you don't have the credentials, man. You can't sit here and play religion because we take our religion seriously. So we had to go disappear and go to calm and train up and all that. Wilmer Leon (55:45): Had to coach him up a little bit. Scott Ritter (55:48): But he also then has to go out and sell himself right? To an audience. And a lot of people weren't buying what he was selling. I mean, he's a very popular man, very influential in Iraqi politics today. But it's earned. It's not given. But the point is, the Iranians are a responsible nation, and if Israel was smart, they would've said, okay, we're in a bad position here, bad position. (56:12) It's not a good position for us to be in. We need to take a step back, take advantage of the fact that the Iranians have written a script that makes it believable that we did some amazing stuff. And then we have to reassess where we are. What do we have to do to get our defenses back up? What do we have to do to get capabilities to strike Iran? When do we want to do it? Because the United States isn't on our side right now, behavioral modification to get the world to love us. Again, things of this nature, strategic thinking. But Israel's governed by a crazy man named Benjamin Netanyahu, who doesn't care about Israel. He doesn't care about the Israeli people. He doesn't care about Israeli security. He doesn't care about alliances with the United States. He's a 76-year-old man in bad health who only cares about Benjamin Netanyahu. (56:58) And he right now has his butt in a sling because he got embarrassed on October 7th, and now he was just humiliated by the Iranians. And he can only stay in power as a wartime prime minister. And if they're going to either, they have to ratchet it up in Gaza. Every Israeli knows that they lost in Gaza that they haven't won Harts the day before, the Iranian attack front page headline, we lost. We lost everything. We haven't won anything we've lost. And that's the assessment of the Israeli intelligence service. And people who don't know need to know that Harts is a very prominent Israeli newspaper with a very good reputation of like, well, you said good reputation. I was about to compare to the New York, used to have, right? There you go. There you go. Like it used to have. But so he's lost in Gaza. (57:52) He was looking to maybe promote a conflict against Hezbollah to expand the war. And there's always that hope that we can drag the United States into a larger war with Iran. But the United States, it says, no, we're not doing that. Hezbollah now is linked to Iranian deterrence, superiority. So you can't do the Hezbollah thing like you wanted to do anymore. You're in a, and now you've got Ansara Allah in the Red Sea shutting down the Red Sea, shutting down the Israeli economy. Wilmer Leon (58:22): And on the other side, you have Iran shutting down the strai of Harmouz. And that's why I go back to that ship that they captured because they wanted the United States to understand will shut your oil off. Scott Ritter (58:36): And the United States, remember, we've been running guardian prosperity or something like that, whatever the name of our wonderfully named operation to deter the Hootie. And we, I don't know if everybody understands, we had to approach the Hoothie last week and beg them to stop it. Please, please, please, please, please. We'll stop bombing you. We'll do everything. We'll lift the terrorism thing, but just stop this, please, because we can't force you to stop it. And the Hootie went, no. Yeah. They said, here's another one. The missiles, you guys are deterring. That's a failure. But that's the thing. The failure of deterrents policy has been played out with the Hoothie and it's being played out. See, America no longer has deterrents, superiority. We no longer have deterrence. We can't deter a minute. Wilmer Leon (59:25): Wait a minute. We sent the Eisenhower into, now this takes me back to, so we sent a couple of aircraft carrier groups into the region when I think it was the Eisenhower. Oh, it was Gerald Ford. We first sent the Gerald Ford in President Putin says to Joe Biden, why did you do that? You are not scaring anybody. These people don't scare. And oh, by the way, we can sink your carrier from here with our Kenjal missile. Hypersonic missile. So stop it, Joe. You're not scaring anybody. Scott Ritter (01:00:08): But here's something else that happened, and I'm glad you brought this up. This is an important thing. The United States linked at least two of its ships to this system, and this is part of the American anti-ballistic missile strategy. We do this with Japan, we do this with Korea, we do this with Europe. We have a whole bunch of ages, class destroyers in Spain that we now are going to fan out to protect Europe from Russian missiles. And we're telling everybody, no worry. We got this. We got this. Remember guys, when that satellite was coming down, we shot it down. We're that good? We can pull it, hit a bullet kind of stuff. So we went to the Israelis and we plugged in to the world's most sophisticated anti-ballistic missile shield in the world. We plugged in and the Iranians went. (01:00:55) What the Iranians proved, and I just want this to sink in there, they can hit any American ship anytime they want with a warhead that will sink that ship. They just sent a signal to the United States that we will sink every one of your aircraft carriers. We will sink every one of your destroyers, all these wonderful ships you have. You can't stop it. The missile we sent in and touched, Nevada can sink any one of your ships. And how do we know? Because you plugged your ships into the system. Guys, up until then, we might've been theoretical about this, but now you plugged it in and you were playing the game. You committed your best anti-missile ships to the defense system, and you didn't stop us. We went in and went pop, pop, pop, pop, pop five times on the target. If Nevada had become the Gerald Ford or become the Eisenhower or the Carl Benson, we would've sunk that ship. (01:01:52) That's the other thing that the Iranians did here that nobody's talking about, because this is the scariest thing in the world to the United States. Iran just told the United States, your Navy is useless. Useless. It's done and now, but it's not just the Iranians, the North Korean, China China has everybody out there who has hypersonic missile capability is now basically saying, oh yeah, we can sink American ships too. And this is important thing. Wilmer Leon (01:02:22): I was talking to KJ Noh last week, and KJ was talking about the United States sending all kind of hardware into Taiwan and that the United States may even wind up sending personnel in Taiwan and in anticipation of China making a, I think this is what KJ said, making a land invasion in Taiwan. And I said, kj, why would China do that when all they got to do is sink an aircraft carrier with a hypersonic missile? And he said, well, that's a good point. Scott Ritter (01:02:58): No, I mean the United States, but now we come to, because America's facing the same problem that BB Netanyahu is, except there's not a political dimension to it. BB Netanyahu right now has to do something to stay in power politically so now Wilmer Leon (01:03:15): and not be prosecuted for theft. Scott Ritter (01:03:19): Correct. For his corruption. Yeah. Second, he leaves office, he gets arrested and he gets put on trial. Wilmer Leon (01:03:25): Ala Donald Trump. Scott Ritter (01:03:27): Except, yeah, I mean, yeah, Wilmer Leon (01:03:32): that's a whole nother story. But I'm just saying that right now is what Donald Trump is facing. Scott Ritter (01:03:38): Correct. Wilmer Leon (01:03:38): And I'm not saying it's legitimate or not legitimate. Scott Ritter (01:03:41): Yeah. That's my only reason why I did that is I don't want to get into the, no, Wilmer Leon (01:03:47): it's happening. Scott Ritter (01:03:47): Because Netanyahu is a criminal. He is a corrupt person. Donald Trump is an imperfect human being who may have committed some crimes, but in America, you're innocent until proven guilty. And he has these trials, many of which people believe are politicized, designed, and diminishes. We can move on. We don't need to go down that rabbit hole on this episode. But the fact is Israel right now is desperately looking for a face saving way out of this because the fiction of we were so good that we stopped this Iranian attack is not believable. It's not believable domestically. So now the Israelis are looking for the ability to do something that if not gives them deterrence, superiority they're looking for right now, deterrence, parody. Parody. And so here's the question, because you remember now we come back to Pepe, and this is probably a good way to spin this around. (01:04:53) William Burns met with Iranians beforehand and came up with an elegant solution to an extraordinarily difficult and dangerous problem. Iran now has established a deterrence philosophy, and they articulate the second Israeli airplanes take off. We launch our missiles. We're not waiting for Israel to attack us. The second your planes take off, we're firing. And Iran has said, we consider the matter settled. Settled. We consider the matter over. You struck us, we struck back, let it go. Correct. But it's not settled because there's thing called politics. And Iranians, again, are some of the most sophisticated political players in the world. So my guess is as we're speaking, Hey Pepe, if you're out there, call your source. I'm giving you a hint that behavioral patterns, one thing I used to do as an intelligence officer is do analysis and assessments, predictive analysis based upon behavioral patterns. Humans tend to repeat behavioral patterns. (01:05:59) And so now the CIA and the Iranians have talked to prevent one crisis. They're talking right now and the CIA saying, guys, what can we do to prevent Israel from doing something really stupid, which is the big attack, which politically we need a safety valve. This is the equivalent of a methane tank getting heat on it. And if you don't have a safety valve that goes, it's going to blow. So how do we get a safety valve? What can Israel do to save face that doesn't impact you? And you see the Israelis now ratcheting it down. It was, we're going to strike nuclear facilities. We're going to strike this, we're going to strike that. And now they're saying, well, what if we strike something outside of Iran? But it's clearly Iran like at seven 11. Yeah, at three in the morning when it's been closed and nobody's there strike at seven 11. (01:06:53) And so they're desperately looking for this outlet. The question now is, what will Iran do? My bet is that Iran will facilitate a face saving gesture by Israel because the Iranians don't want and don't need a war, a major war business. Well, it's horribly. The Iranian foreign ministry, just so everybody understands this, their number one priority now, one of their top priorities is they have all of their smart people right now writing papers for the Brick summit in October, which Iran will be attending and will be playing a major role in establishing new global infrastructure and institutions on how the world's going to be governed and a possible international currency off of the dollar bingo. These are big ticket things. Business. They don't need to be business. They don't need to be dragged into this stupidity of a mafia family dispute Wilmer Leon (01:07:54): Really quickly. One of the reasons why President Putin went into Ukraine light in the beginning was he doesn't want a war because it's bad for his economy. Scott Ritter (01:08:11): But the West didn't pick up on that. Now we got thing. Wilmer Leon (01:08:15): And now he's kicking ass and taking names and folks are all befuddled. Hey, you started. You went looking for trouble. You found a big bag of it. And now, so thank you for your time, Scott. Two things I want to hit quickly. One is the estimates are in very simple terms, that Iran spent a million dollars on this attack and Israel lost a billion in their response to it. Scott Ritter (01:08:50): I'd say 60 million for the Iranians, about 3.2 billion for the Israelis and the United States altogether. Wilmer Leon (01:08:55): Okay. Okay. And this other thing, is it velvet or violet, this AI program that Israel has developed that they assign a score? Are you familiar with this? They assign a score to Palestinians based upon a number of predetermined social behaviors. And when your score gets close to a hundred, you get assassinated. And this is all generated by artificial intelligence. You mentioned ai, so I want to just to quickly drop that one in there before we get out. Scott Ritter (01:09:31): No, I mean, again, it's a criminal enterprise. It's about killing innocence. And part of this AI too is that it calculates the number of civilian casualties that'll be assigned to that thing target. And unfortunately for the Palestinians, one would think if you're a rational, look, I keep telling people, I'm not a pacifist, and if you want to go to war, I'm old. You're the guy. But guys, I have no problem killing you. I mean, I know you're trying to kill me, so I will kill you, and I'm not going to weep at night when you die because you wanted to play this game. But I'm not in the business of killing you and taking out innocent civilians. Okay? (01:10:17) That's where I draw the line. Now there's collateral damage. If it happens, I'll be upset, but I have my parameters. If I'm going to take you and they're saying, you're going to take out this many civilians, I'm going, that's a bad target. Not the right time. Not the right place. We're not going to do it. But the Israelis have the opposite thing. It's not just when you're going to take out the target, but when you get the maximum impact of civilian casualties. The Israeli approach is AI program is designed to kill the maximum number of family members and civilians to maximize the impact of the attack on the morale of the Palestinian people. But see, that's where AI fails because it doesn't understand the human heart and doesn't understand rage, it doesn't understand hate, and they don't understand that the more Palestinians you kill, the more you train them to hate you. (01:11:05) And not only that, the world is turning against you. See, the AI program hasn't figured out the global factor that every time they do this, the world hates Israel even more. Hamas is a political organization. Hamas is a military organization. Hamas is an ideology, and you don't kill an ideology with weapons. You defeat an ideology with a better ideology, which is generally linked to a better lifestyle, better standard of living, economic prosperity. Again, Jane Carville's mantra, it's the economy. Stupid isn't just an American only. It's a global human reality Wilmer Leon (01:11:52

Israel and Hamas have sent teams to Egypt for fresh talks on a potential ceasefire. Gulf Arab states are investing in Iraq as they seek to grow soft power in a country where Iran has unparalleled influence. And  African and Caribbean nations are joining forces in the fight to create a slavery tribunal at the United Nations. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, to assess Russia's stance on the war in Gaza, how Russia is looking to benefit from the war and its approach to the Middle East. They look at how Moscow is trying to leverage the conflict to strengthen diplomatic and military ties with Gulf Arab states and ask just how much all this will damage its relations with Israel in the long term. They talk about Russia's engagement with Iran and potentially shifting views on Iran's nuclear program. They also discuss whether or not the war will undermine prospects for arms control in the Middle East.For more of Crisis Group's analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Israel/Palestine and Russia pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gulf Arab states condition Gaza rebuild aid to change in Palestinian Authority leadership, IDF battling for control of Zeytun neighborhood of Gaza City, hostage deal said to be imminent See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the fighting between Israel and Hamas intensifies, the world is bracing for the widening of a conflict that has the potential to escalate quickly and bring in outside powers from the region and beyond.India's position in the aftermath of the horrific Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7th—and the subsequent Israeli military response—has been noteworthy. Unlike many countries in the Global South, which offered qualified support for Israel after the attacks and have positioned themselves with the Palestinian cause, India's initial response made no mention of Gaza at all.To make sense of India's evolving position and the ways in which its Middle East policy has shifted over the decades, Milan is joined on the show this week by the political scientist Nicolas Blarel. Nicolas is Associate Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Political Science at Leiden University in The Netherlands and the author of The Evolution of India's Israel Policy: Continuity, Change, and Compromise since 1922.Milan and Nicolas discuss India's response to the conflict in Israel-Palestine, its growing embrace of Israel, and the growing bilateral security partnership. Plus, the two discuss the Modi government's simultaneous outreach to Gulf Arab states and the factors that could shape how India responds to an expanded regional conflict.Episode notes:Crystal A. Ennis and Nicolas Blarel, eds., The South Asia to Gulf Migration Governance Complex (Bristol, UK: Bristol University Press, 2022).Nicolas Blarel, The Evolution of India's Israel Policy: Continuity, Change, and Compromise since 1922 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).Sumit Ganguly and Nicolas Blarel, “Modi's Comments on Israel-Gaza War Signal Shift,” Foreign Policy, October 12, 2023.Nicolas Blarel, “Navigating Asian Rivalries: Israel's ties with China and India,” National University of Singapore-Middle East Institute, Singapore Insights No. 300, July 25, 2023.

The Biden administration's foreign policy freed up weapons and money that, directly or indirectly, made this weekend's attack by Hamas on Israel possible. 5) Saturday's sneak attack by Hamas Israel's worst military failure in 50 years; 4) Iran backing Hamas to divide Israel and Gulf Arab states; 3) War in Gaza, especially to recover hostages, will be brutal; 2) Iranian money and American weapons, released by Biden administration, may have played role in Hamas attack; 1) Celebrity tattoo artist Kat Von D renounces occult, gets baptized. FOLLOW US! Twitter X: @SkyWatch_TV YouTube: @SkyWatchTVnow @SimplyHIS @FiveInTen Rumble: @SkyWatchTV Facebook: @SkyWatchTV @SimplyHIS @EdensEssentials Instagram: @SkyWatchTV @SimplyHisShow @EdensEssentialsUSA TikTok: @SkyWatchTV @SimplyHisShow @EdensEssentials SkyWatchTV.com | SkyWatchTVStore.com | EdensEssentials.com | WhisperingPoniesRanch.com

Gulf Arab states are looking to build economic bridges with countries in the Middle East and Africa.     Last year, the International Monetary Fund announced that major energy producers – like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – are expected to collect $1.3 trillion in profits from high oil prices over the next four years. These profits are expected to fund Gulf Arab states' investments abroad.  At home, they aim to diversify their economies and invest in the energy transition although they anticipate oil demand to rise in the next few years.  What does the move toward economic cooperation in the Middle East and Africa mean for the global world order? What does it mean for relationships with the U.S. and China? And to what extent will the energy transition be a focus for investment?    This week, host Bill Loveless talks with Karen Young about her book “The Economic Statecraft of the Gulf Arab States” which came out earlier this year. They discuss how the rise of authoritarian or state capitalism in the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, and West Asia could impact the global energy transition.  Karen is an author and political economist focusing on the Gulf, the broader Middle East and North Africa region, and the intersection of energy, finance, and security. She was a senior fellow and founding director of the Program on Economics and Energy at the Middle East Institute. She is currently a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, SIPA.

It's Wednesday, April 12th, A.D. 2023. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Jonathan Clark Malaysia state bans Muslims from attending Christian events Malaysia's state of Selangor issued an anti-Christian ruling last month. It bans Muslims from visiting non-Muslim places of worship, including churches. Selangor is the most populous state in the Southeast Asian country which has a Muslim majority.  The ban comes after Malaysia's Sports Minister announced an event for people to learn about Christianity.  An Open Doors spokesman said, “It is alarming to see the rise in incidents like this, giving more and more control to the Islamic authority and restricting the rights of the minorities.” Malaysia is ranked 43rd on the Open Doors' World Watch List of nations where it is most difficult to be a Christian.  Iran and Saudi Arabia restore diplomatic ties with one another Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic ties last Thursday with one another. The two countries have long been rivals, and for seven years they have not had diplomatic ties. The Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers came to the agreement, brokered by China, during a meeting in Beijing. This represents China's increased influence among Gulf Arab states as the U.S. presence in the region diminishes. Int'l Monetary Fund expects global economy to grow by 3% On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said it expects the global economy to grow around 3% annually over the next five years. It's the weakest growth forecast since 1990. The IMF's latest report predicts 90% of advanced economies will stop expanding this year. This comes as countries in North America and Europe raise interest rates to combat inflation. Meanwhile, about half of global growth is expected to come from economies in Asia like China and India. Idaho and Indiana crack down on kids' gender confusion More U.S. states are cracking down on gender confusion. Last week, Idaho and Indiana enacted laws to protect children from puberty blockers and so-called “sex-change” surgeries. Ten other states have passed similar legislation. Even more states have banned males, pretending to be females, from competing in female sports. In response, the Biden administration is trying to protect gender confusion. Last week, the U.S. Department of Education proposed expanding Title IX protections to include “gender identity.” This would effectively keep publicly-funded schools from banning transgender athletes.   Romans 1:28 says, “And since they did not see fit to acknowledge God, God gave them up to a debased mind to do what ought not to be done.” 2 pro-abort vandals charged in Florida At the end of last month, the U.S. Department of Justice announced a federal grand jury charged two more people for attacking pro-life pregnancy centers in Florida. A total of four people have now been indicted for pro-abortion vandalism in the state. If convicted, they could face years in prison and hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines. However, the four indictments are small in comparison with the dozens of pro-abortion attacks carried out on pregnancy centers over the last year. 150 Catholic priests in Baltimore abused 600 kids Last Wednesday, Maryland's Attorney General Anthony Brown released a 463-page report on child sexual abuse in the Archdiocese of Baltimore. The Archdiocese is the oldest Roman Catholic diocese in the U.S. The report accuses 150 Catholic priests and other individuals from the Archdiocese of abusing over 600 children during the span of 80 years. More workers taking parental leave The Wall Street Journal reports the number of workers taking parental leave is up 13.5% from 2021. Nearly 500,000 working parents took leave in January, the most since 1994. One driving factor is an increase in the number of births in the past two years. Another factor is an increase in the availability of paid parental leave. Last March, 25% of workers had access to parental leave, up from 19% in 2019. Seven states now require employers to offer paid leave, up from four in 2018. 66% of Americans believe Jesus rose from dead And finally, Lifeway Research released a study last Wednesday ahead of Resurrection Sunday.  The survey found 66% of U.S. adults believe the Biblical accounts of the physical resurrection of Jesus are completely accurate. Twenty-three percent disagree, and 11% aren't sure. However, Lifeway reports many Americans have conflicting views on the Bible and see little connection between the resurrection of Christ and their daily lives. The Apostle John wrote in Revelation 1:4-6, “Grace to you… from Jesus Christ the faithful witness, the firstborn of the dead, and the ruler of the kings on earth . . . who loves us and has freed us from our sins by His blood and made us a kingdom, priests to His God and Father.” Close And that's The Worldview in 5 Minutes on this Wednesday, April 12th in the year of our Lord 2023. Subscribe by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com. Or get the Generations app through Google Play or The App Store. I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

Episode 70! Dr. Aziz Alghashain joins The 966 to talk about Saudi-Israel relations in 2023, the status of the Abraham Accords, and his view on Saudi foreign policy going forward. Before the conversation with Dr. Aziz, the hosts discuss the upcoming Future Minerals Forum 2023 in Riyadh, major developments in Saudi Arabia's water sector and how the Kingdom is getting more mature about water management, and much more in the program's Yallah! segment. 3:06 - Richard's one big thing is the upcoming Future Minerals Forum 202314:54 - Lucien's one big thing is water! Rain has fallen across Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. That lead Lucien to thinking about the recent maturity of Saudi Arabia's water sector, including innovative techniques in desalination and opportunities for the private sector in the coming years. The subject also ties in with Saudi Arabia's national farming policies, including a recent story from Arizona about a Saudi-owned company, Almarai, and its local subsidiary using groundwater for alfalfa production. 30:45 - The 966 welcomes Dr. Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi researcher and writer focused on Saudi-Israel relations. Dr. Aziz is often quoted in media outlets like the NYT, France24, Sky, BBC about the developments in this interesting area of Saudi foreign policy. The hosts also talk with Dr. Aziz about his story growing up just out of Washington, D.C. and his studies and work in the UK. 1:41:00 - Yallah! 6 top storylines to get you up to speed headed into the weekend...Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo joins Saudi Arabia club Al NassrPortugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo has joined Saudi Arabian club Al Nassr on a 2-1/2 year deal, a month after the 37-year-old forward became a free agent when his contract with Premier League club Manchester United was terminated. Al Nassr said the five-time Ballon d'Or winner will join on a deal until 2025 but did not disclose any financial details. Ronaldo's contract with the team has been estimated by media to be worth more than 200 million euros ($214.5m).Hyundai Motor to be first Korean carmaker with factory in Middle EastSaudi Arabia's Ministry of Industry has signed a memorandum of understanding with the South Korean company “Hyundai Motors” to build a factory for the complete assembly of electric cars in the Kingdom. The memorandum of understanding stipulates planning to build a complete assembly plant with the “CKD” system for electric cars and internal combustion engine cars, to be located in Saudi Arabia.Employment in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector rises at strongest pace since 2018Hiring at companies in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector increased at its strongest pace in about five years in December, driven by "robust” business activity. The acceleration in sales growth drove businesses in the kingdom to increase hiring in December to boost operating efficiency. The rate of job creation was the fastest recorded since January 2018, while the increase in staffing capacity helped companies to reduce outstanding work for the seventh month running.Saudi Arabia Gains Majority Stake in Magic Leap in $450M DealSaudi Arabia has taken majority share of the US-based augmented reality company Magic Leap, The Telegraph reports, widening the stake via its state-owned sovereign wealth fund with a deal amounting to $450 million. The investment puts the country's ownership of Magic Leap over 50 percent, giving it overall majority control. To date, Magic Leap has raised $4 billion, with minority investors including Google, Alibaba, Qualcomm, AT&T, and Axel Springer.Gulf Cup gives Iraq chance to draw closer to Arab neighborsFrom Jan. 6-19, the southern city of Basra will host the 25th edition of the Arabian Gulf Cup (AGC), a biennial football tournament amongst Gulf Arab states first held in 1970 in Bahrain. Iraq will be the venue of a major international football competition for the first time since it both hosted and won the AGC in 1979. Eight regional teams—Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen—will participate in the tournament. Matches will take place at the Basra International Stadium and the Al-Minaa Olympic Stadium, venues with capacities of 65,000 and 30,000 spectators respectively.Saudi Arabia to launch kingdom's version of AirbnbSaudi Arabia is to allow its citizens to operate Airbnb-style property rentals after the kingdom announced a new portal similar to the global lettings marketplace. Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al Khateeb approved the tourism law this week. Properties will be advertised through an official tourism service provider in line with the regulations set by the ministry, which will publish prices inclusive of taxes. Strict guidelines have been issued on maintaining tourists' privacy, with constant surveillance of authorities on security, health and safety measures, including ambulance and evacuation procedures.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping vowed on Friday to import more oil and natural gas from energy-rich Gulf Arab states while not interfering in their affairs, likely seeking to cast Beijing in a more favorable light than Washington as America's attention in the region wanes.

*) Boluarte becomes Peru's first ever female president after Castillo's ouster Peruvian politician Dina Boluarte has been sworn in as interim president, hours after Pedro Castillo was removed in an impeachment trial and arrested. Boluarte, elevated from vice president, becomes Peru's first ever female president, following Castillo's attempt to dissolve the legislature by decree to avoid the impeachment vote. Boluarte said she was taking office "in accordance with the Constitution of Peru.” *) Putin warns of prolonged Russian military operation against Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that his country's military could be fighting against Ukraine for a long time. Putin said, "As for the long process of seeing results of the special military operation, of course, this is a lengthy process." Moscow had expected the fighting to last just days before Ukraine's surrender. *) China's Xi starts landmark visit to Saudi Arabia Chinese President Xi Jinping has arrived in Saudi Arabia on a visit, which China hailed as its biggest-ever diplomatic initiative in the Arab world. The meeting between the global economic powerhouse and Gulf energy giant comes as Saudi ties with Washington are strained by US criticism on some issues, including Riyadh's support for oil output curbs. Xi's trip includes direct talks with Saudi Arabia, a wider meeting with the six-nation Gulf Arab alliance and a summit with Arab leaders. *) Afghan Taliban carries out first public execution since takeover The Taliban administration has publicly executed a man accused of murder in Afghanistan's western Farah province. This is the first officially confirmed public execution since the group took over the country last year. The man was accused of stabbing another man to death in 2017. The execution was carried out by the father of the victim, who shot the man three times, according to a statement by a Taliban spokesperson. And finally… *) Oldest DNA reveals life in Greenland two million years ago Scientists in Greenland have announced the discovery of DNA dating back two million years in sediment from the Ice Age, opening a new chapter in paleogenetics. Co-author of the study Mikkel Winther Pedersen, said the research is breaking the barrier of “what we thought we could reach in terms of genetic studies.” He said: “It was long thought that one million years was the boundary of DNA survival, but now we are twice as old as that.”

The 2022 FIFA World Cup kicked off this week in the Qatari capital Doha. The tournament comes at a time of fast-evolving politics in the region. Just a few years ago, a spat within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) saw Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) break diplomatic ties with and blockade Qatar, frustrated in part by Doha's support for Islamists across the Middle East and North Africa. The crisis was mostly resolved in early 2021, and diplomacy ahead of the World Cup has further calmed intra-GCC relations, though differences remain, particularly between Qatar and the UAE. The World Cup also comes amid other changes nearby: Iran is convulsed by mass protests; talks involving Tehran and world powers over Iran's nuclear program have fizzled out; and Benjamin Netanyahu looks set to return to power in Israel at the helm of the most right wing government in the country's history – all at a time when Gulf monarchies have taken some steps to calm tensions with Iran and, in some cases, improve relations with Israel. It also comes amid Saudi-U.S. friction. Riyadh's decision, together with other oil producers, to cut oil production against Washington's wishes has further tested relations that were already strained over the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, for which U.S. intelligence blames powerful Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Joost Hiltermann and Dina Esfandiary, Crisis Group's Middle East & North Africa director and senior adviser, respectively, to talk about the World Cup and Gulf Arab states' external relations. They discuss how ties between countries in the region have evolved since the GCC spat and their different interests in the region. They examine how Gulf Arab countries view developments in Yemen and Iran and the changing relationship between some Gulf capitals and Israel. Finally, they look at the ups and downs of U.S.-Saudi ties during U.S. President Joe Biden's tenure in office thus far. They talk about how Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region are navigating Washington's changing role in the region, big-power tensions and multipolarity. They discuss Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plans for Saudi Arabia and ask what the future holds for relations between Riyadh and Washington. For more on the situation in the Gulf region, check out Crisis Group's extensive analysis on our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Congress has signed four laws that send enormous amounts of money and weapons to Ukraine, attempting to punish Russia for President Putin's invasion. In this episode, we examine these laws to find out where our money will actually go and attempt to understand the shifting goals of the Biden administration. The big picture, as it's being explained to Congress, differs from what we're being sold. Please Support Congressional Dish – Quick Links Contribute monthly or a lump sum via PayPal Support Congressional Dish via Patreon (donations per episode) Send Zelle payments to: Donation@congressionaldish.com Send Venmo payments to: @Jennifer-Briney Send Cash App payments to: $CongressionalDish or Donation@congressionaldish.com Use your bank's online bill pay function to mail contributions to: 5753 Hwy 85 North, Number 4576, Crestview, FL 32536. Please make checks payable to Congressional Dish Thank you for supporting truly independent media! Background Sources Recommended Congressional Dish Content Ukraine and Russia CD249: A Few Good Laws CD248: Understanding the Enemy CD244: Keeping Ukraine CD229: Target Belarus CD167: Combating Russia (NDAA 2018) LIVE CD068: Ukraine Aid Bill CD067: What Do We Want In Ukraine? Syria CD172: The Illegal Bombing of Syria CD108: Regime Change CD041: Why Attack Syria? World Trade System What Is the World Trade System? CD230: Pacific Deterrence Initiative CD102: The World Trade Organization: COOL? Russian Blockade Shane Harris. May 24, 2022. “U.S. intelligence document shows Russian naval blockade of Ukraine.” The Washington Post. NATO Expansion Jim Garamone. Jun 1, 2022. “Russia Forcing Changes to NATO Strategic Concepts.” U.S. Department of Defense News. Matthew Lee. May 27, 2022. “US: Turkey's NATO issues with Sweden, Finland will be fixed.” AP News. Ted Kemp. May 19, 2022. “Two maps show NATO's growth — and Russia's isolation — since 1990.” CNBC. U.S. Involvement in Ukraine Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes. May 5, 2022. “U.S. Intelligence Helped Ukraine Strike Russian Flagship, Officials Say.” The New York Times. Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt. May 4, 2022. “U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say.” The New York Times. Private Security Contractors Christopher Caldwell. May 31, 2022. “The War in Ukraine May Be Impossible to Stop. And the U.S. Deserves Much of the Blame.” The New York Times. Joaquin Sapien and Joshua Kaplan. May 27, 2022. “How the U.S. Has Struggled to Stop the Growth of a Shadowy Russian Private Army.” ProPublica. H.R. 7691 Background How It Passed Glenn Greenwald. May 13, 2022. “The Bizarre, Unanimous Dem Support for the $40b War Package to Raytheon and CIA: ‘For Ukraine.'” Glenn Greenwald on Substack. Catie Edmondson and Emily Cochrane. May 10, 2022. “House Passes $40 Billion More in Ukraine Aid, With Few Questions Asked.” The New York Times. Republican Holdouts Glenn Greenwald and Anthony Tobin. May 24, 2022. “Twenty-Two House Republicans Demand Accountability on Biden's $40b War Spending.” Glenn Greenwald on Substack. Amy Cheng and Eugene Scott. May 13, 2022. “Rand Paul, lone Senate holdout, delays vote on Ukraine aid to next week.” The Washington Post. Morgan Watkins. May 13, 2022. “Sen. Rand Paul stalls $40 billion in aid for Ukraine, breaking with Mitch McConnell USA Today. Stephen Semler. May 26, 2022. “The Ukraine Aid Bill Is a Massive Windfall for US Military Contractors.” Jacobin. Biden Signs in South Korea Biden signs Ukraine Bill and Access to Baby Formula Act in South Korea. Reddit. Kate Sullivan. May 20, 2022. “Flying the Ukraine aid bill to South Korea for Biden's signature isn't unheard of. It also may not be totally necessary.” CNN. How Much Money, and Where Will It Go? Stephen Semler. May 23, 2022. “A breakdown of the Ukraine aid bill.” Speaking Security on Substack. “CBO Estimate for H.R. 7691, Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022, as Passed by the House of Representatives on May 10, 2022.” May 11 2022. Congressional Budget Office. Christina Arabia, Andrew Bowen, and Cory Welt. Updated Apr 29, 2022. “U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine.” [IF12040] Congressional Research Service. “22 U.S. Code § 2346 - Authority.” Legal Information Institute, Cornell School of Law. Representatives' Raytheon and Lockheed Martin Stocks Kimberly Leonard. May 19, 2022. “20 members of Congress personally invest in top weapons contractors that'll profit from the just-passed $40 billion Ukraine aid package.” Insider. Kimberly Leonard. Mar 21, 2022. “GOP Rep. John Rutherford of Florida bought Raytheon stock the same day Russia invaded Ukraine.” Insider. Marjorie Taylor Green [@RepMTG]. Feb 24, 2022. “War is big business to our leaders.” Twitter. “Florida's 4th Congressional District.” GovTrack. “Rules Based Order” Anthony Dworkin. Sep 8, 2020. “Why America is facing off against the International Criminal Court.” “History of the multilateral trading system.” *The World Trade Organization “Facts: Global Inequality” Inequality.org “Timeline: Former Russian President Boris Yeltsin.” Apr 23, 2007. NPR. Crimea Kenneth Rapoza. Mar 20, 2015. One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals Prefer Moscow To Kiev Forbes. “Crimea exit poll: About 93% back Russia union. March 16, 2014. BBC. Shifting Strategies Economic War Larry Elliott. Jun 2, 2022. “Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops. The Guardian. Nigel Gould-Davies. May 12, 2022. “We Must Make Sure Russia Finishes This War in a Worse Position Than Before” The New York Times. Weapons Escalation Jake Johnson. Jun 1, 2022. “'Slippery Slope... Just Got a Lot Steeper': US to Send Ukraine Advanced Missiles as Russia Holds Nuke Drills.” Common Dreams. C. Todd Lopez. Jun 1, 2022. “Advanced Rocket Launcher System Heads to Ukraine.” U.S. Department of Defense News. Greg Norman. Jun 1, 2022. “Russia stages nuclear drills after US announces rockets to Ukraine.” Fox News. Christian Esch et al. May 30, 2022. “What's Next for Ukraine? The West Tries to Figure Out What Peace Might Look Like.” Spiegel International. See Image. Alastair Gale. May 24, 2022. “China and Russia Sent Bombers Near Japan as Biden Visited Tokyo.” The Wall Street Journal. Mike Stone. Mar 11, 2022. “Exclusive: Pentagon revives team to speed arms to Ukraine and allies, sources say.” Reuters. Secretary Austin and the Pentagon Jim Garamone. May 20, 2022. “Austin to Host Second Ukraine Contact Group Meeting Monday.” U.S. Department of Defense News. Natasha Bertrand et al. Apr 26, 2022. “Austin's assertion that US wants to ‘weaken' Russia underlines Biden strategy shift.” CNN. David Sanger. Apr 25, 2022. “Behind Austin's Call for a ‘Weakened' Russia, Hints of a Shift.” The New York Times. Mike Stone. Apr 12, 2022. “Pentagon asks top 8 U.S. weapons makers to meet on Ukraine -sources.” Reuters. Glenn Greenwald. Dec 8, 2020. “Biden's Choice For Pentagon Chief Further Erodes a Key U.S. Norm: Civilian Control.” Glenn Greenwald on Substack. Democrats Still All In Marc Santora. May 1, 2022. “Pelosi and Democratic lawmakers vow the U.S. will stand with Ukraine. The New York Times. RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service. May 1, 2022. “Civilians Evacuated From Mariupol; U.S. House Speaker Pelosi Visits Kyiv.” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. “Ukraine war: Joe Biden calls for removal of Vladimir Putin in angry speech.” Mar 26, 2022. Sky News. The Laws H.R. 7691: Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022 House Vote: 368-57 Senate Vote: 86-11 Transcript of House Debate S.3522: Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 Passed by Voice Vote in the Senate House Vote 417-10 House "Debate" H.R.6968 - Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act Senate Vote: 100-0 House Vote: 413-9 House Debate H.R.7108: Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act Senate Vote: 100-0 (amended the original House bill) Final House Vote: 424-8 House debate 1 (on original version) House debate 2 (final version) Audio Sources Joe Manchin at the World Economic Forum's meeting in Davos May 23, 2022 Clips Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV): Speaking about Ukraine, first what Putin, Putin's war on Ukraine and Ukraine's determination, resolving the sacrifices they've made for the cause of freedom has united the whole world, that it's united, US Senate and Congress, I think like nothing I've seen in my lifetime. I think we're totally committed to supporting Ukraine, in every way possible, as long as we have the rest of NATO and the free world helping. I think we're all in this together. And I am totally committed as one person to seeing Ukraine to the end with a win, not basically resolving in some type of a treaty. I don't think that is where we are and where we should be. Reporter: Can I just follow up and ask you what you mean by a win for Ukraine? ** Sen. Joe Manchin:** I mean, basically moving Putin back to Russia and hopefully getting rid of Putin. The Ukraine Crisis: Implications for U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific May 19, 2022 Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation Witnesses: Charles Edel, Ph.D., Australia Chair and Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies Bonny Lin, Ph.D., Director, China Power Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies Tanvi Madan, Ph.D.Director, The India Project, Brookings Institution Dan Blumenthal, Ph.D., Senior Fellow and Director of Asian Studies, American Enterprise Institute Clips 6:57 Tanvi Madan: One implication that is already evident, most visibly in Sri Lanka, is the adverse economic impact. The rise in commodity prices in particular has led to fiscal food and energy security concerns and these, in turn, could have political implications and could create a strategic vacuum. 7:15 Tanvi Madan: A separate and longer term economic impact of the crisis could be renewed goals, perhaps especially in India, for self reliance and building resilience not just against Chinese pressure, but also against Western sanctions. 7:28 Tanvi Madan: The second potential implication of the Russia-Ukraine war could be that Beijing might seek to take advantage in the Indo-Pacific while the world's focus is on Europe, between the Taiwan or the East or South China Sea contingencies. The contingency that would have the most direct impact in South Asia would be further action by the PLA at the China-India boundary, or at the Bhutan-China boundary that could draw in India. This potential for Sino-Indian crisis escalation has indeed shaped Delhi's response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite its recent diversification efforts, the Indian military continues to be dependent, if not over dependent, on Russia for supplies and spare parts for crucial frontline equipment. India has also been concerned about moving Moscow away from neutrality towards taking China's side. Nonetheless, there is simultaneously concern that Russia's war with Ukraine might, in any case, make Moscow more beholden to Beijing and also less able to supply India, and that will have implications for India's military readiness. 10:10 Tanvi Madan: The fourth implication in South Asia could flow from the war's effect on the Russia-China relationship flows. The Sino-Russian ties in recent years have benefited Pakistan. However, they have been of great concern to India. If China-Russia relations deepened further, it could lead to increased Indian concern about Russian reliability. And a Dheli that is concerned about Moscow's ability and willingness to supply India militarily or supported in international forums will seek alternative partners and suppliers a potential opportunity for the US as well as its allies and partners. 18:15 Bonny Lin: China has shifted its position on the Ukraine conflict to be less fully pro Russia. Xi Jinping has expressed that he is deeply grieved by the outbreak of war. China has engaged in diplomacy, called for a ceasefire, proposed a six point humanitarian initiative, and provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine. China's position on Ukraine, however, is far from neutral. China has not condemned Russia or called its aggression an evasion. Xi has yet to speak to President Zelenskyy. There is no evidence that China has sought to pressure Russia in any way or form. China has amplified Russian disinformation and pushed back against Western sanctions. To date, Beijing has not provided direct military support to Russia and has not engaged in systemic efforts to help Russia evade sanctions. However, China's ambassador to Russia has encouraged Chinese companies to quote "fill the void in the Russian market." 19:14 Bonny Lin: The Ukraine crisis has reinforced China's view that US military expansion could provoke conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Chinese interlocutors have voiced concern that the United States and NATO are fighting Russia today, but might fight China next. China views NATO expansion as one of the key causes of the Korean conflict and sees parallels between NATO activities in Europe and US efforts in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing is worried that increasing US and ally support for Taiwan and other regional allies and partners elevates the risk of US-China military confrontation. This pessimistic assessment is why Beijing will continue to stand by Russia as a close strategic partner. 19:56 Bonny Lin: The Ukraine crisis has reinforced and strengthened China's desire to be more self reliant. China is investing more to ensure the security of food, energy, and raw materials. Beijing is also seeking more resilient industrial supply chains, as well as PRC-led systems, including alternatives to Swift. At the same time, Beijing is likely to further cultivate dependencies on China, such that any potential Western led sanctions on China or international-community-led sanctions on China in the future will be painful to the West and difficult to sustain. 21:15 Bonny Lin: China has observed that Russia put its nuclear and strategic forces on high alert and NATO did not send conventional forces to Ukraine. This is leading China to question its nuclear policy and posture. 21:57 Bonny Lin: As Beijing watches the Western and particularly G7-led unity among advanced democracies, it is also seeing that a number of countries in the developing world are not joining in on the sanctions. As a result, Beijing has tried to increase its influence and in many ways building on Russian influence in developing regions. And Beijing is likely to try to get all that influence moving forward. 24:24 Dan Blumenthal: China took the opportunity of Russia's invasion on February 4 to lay out a document that criticizes, very specifically, almost all aspects of United States global policy. Very specifically, including Oculus for NATO enlargement to Oculus to the Indo Pacific strategy. It got Russia to sign up to Xi Jinping's theory that we're in a new era of geopolitics that will replace US leadership, that US leadership is faulty and it's dividing the world into blocks such as NATO, that NATO expansion is the problem, that Indo-Pacific strategy is the same thing as NATO expansion. 25:45 Dan Blumenthal: We should take very seriously what they say, particularly in Chinese, and what they're saying is very clearly pro-Russia and very clear, specific, searing critiques of the US-led world order. 26:47 Dan Blumenthal: And frankly, while the West is unified, and the US and the West and some of our Asian allies are unified, most of the rest of the world is not with us on this issue of China and Russia being these authoritarian, revisionist great powers, and that's a real problem. Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism May 18, 2022 House Committee on Foreign Affairs: Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism Witnesses: Dr. Hanna Notte, Senior Research Associate, Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Dr. Frederic Wehrey, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Caitlin Welsh, Director of the Global Food Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies Grant Rumley, Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Clips 12:55 Hanna Notte: First, Moscow's military presence in Syria has given it a buffer zone on its southern flank to counter perceived threats from within the region, but also to deter NATO outside the European theater. And second, Russia has turned to the region to diversify its economic relations with a focus on arms sales, civilian nuclear exports and wheat supplies. And in building influence, Russia has largely followed what I call a low cost high disruption approach, also using hybrid tactics such as private military companies and disinformation. Now, these Russian interests in the region will not fundamentally change with the invasion of Ukraine. Today, Russia's regional diplomacy remains highly active, aimed at offsetting the impact of Western sanctions and demonstrating that Moscow is not isolated internationally. 14:09 Hanna Notte: Starting with arms control and Non-Proliferation, though Moscow seemed intent on spoiling negotiations to restore the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] in early March. It subsequently dropped demands for written guarantees that its cooperation with Iran would not be hindered by sanctions imposed over Ukraine. But still, I think the geopolitical situation might make Moscow less willing to help finalize a nuclear deal. As in the past, Russia is also unlikely to support any US efforts to curb Iran's use of missiles and proxies in the region, because essentially, Iran's regional strategy pins down us resources while elevating Russia as a regional mediator, which serves Russian interests well. 15:17 Hanna Notte: Just a few words on Syria. Security Council resolution 2585 on the provision of humanitarian aid to northwest Syria is up for renewal in July. Now, Rationally speaking, the Kremlin should cooperate to avoid a worsening of serious food crisis, especially if an end game in Ukraine remains out of reach. But considering the current level of tensions between Russia and the West, I think the United States should be prepared for a Russian Security Council veto regardless, alongside continued Russian stalling on the Syrian constitutional committee. Moscow has no serious interest in seeing the committee advance. It will instead try to foster a Gulf Arab counterweight to Iran in Syria through normalization, especially for the contingency that Russia may need to scale back its own presence in Syria due to Ukraine. 16:14 Hanna Notte: First, unfortunately I think there's a widespread perception that the Ukraine war is not their war, that it's a Great Power NATO-Russia war, partially fueled by NATO and US actions visa vis Russia. 16:27 Hanna Notte: Second, there are accusations of Western double standards. The military support to Kyiv, the reception of Ukrainian refugees, these are rightly or wrongly viewed as proof that the West cares significantly more about conflict in Europe's neighborhood than those in the Middle East. 16:42 Hanna Notte: Third, regional elites worry about US conventional security guarantees. They fear that the threats posed by Russia and China will accelerate a decline in US power in the Middle East. And they also fear that the US will have limited bandwidth to confront Iran's missile and proxy activities. And with those fears, they feel they cannot afford to put all their eggs into the US basket. 17:07 Hanna Notte: And then finally, each regional state has very distinct business and security interests with Russia. As a result, and I'll end here, I think us opportunities to get regional states to turn against Russia are circumscribed. loosening these ties that states have been building with Russia will require a heavy lift. 18:57 Frederic Wehrey: This engagement is largely opportunistic and ad hoc. It seizes on instability and power vacuums and exploits the insecurities of US partners in the region about the reliability of US support, and their displeasure with the conditionality that the US sometimes attaches to its arms sales. Russian arms deliveries, in contrast, are faster and free from restrictions related to human rights. But Russia cannot provide the security guarantees that many Arab states have depended on from the United States. 19:29 Frederic Wehrey: Now, in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is trying to reap dividends from its investment in the region, call in favors, and capitalize on local ambivalence and hostility to the United States, both from states and from Arab publics. America's Arab security partners have differed on joining the Western condemnation of Russian aggression, and some of refuse to join efforts to isolate Russia economically. 20:31 Frederic Wehrey: Russia's disastrous war in Ukraine is tarnishing its reputation as an arms supplier in the Middle East. Russian weapons have been shown to be flawed in combat and often fatally. So, Battlefield expenditures and attrition have whittled away Russia's inventory, especially precision munitions, and sanctions have eroded its defense industrial base, especially electronic components. As a result, Russia won't be able to fulfill its existing commitments, and potential buyers will be increasingly dissuaded from turning to Russia. This shortfall could be modestly exploited by China, which possesses large quantities of Russian made arms and spare parts, which you could use to keep existing inventories in the region up and running. It could also intensify its efforts to sell its own advanced weaponry like drones. 23:50 Caitlin Welsh: The war has reduced supplies and increased prices of foods exported from Ukraine and Russia, namely wheat, maize and sunflower oil, driven up demand for substitute products and reduced fertilizer exports from the Black Sea. Today's high cost of energy puts further pressure on food and fertilizer prices. Most vulnerable to the impact of these price spikes are countries for whom wheat is a major source of calories that rely on imports to meet their food security needs, and that source a significant proportion of their imports from Ukraine and Russia. 24:38 Caitlin Welsh: Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, sourcing over 70% of its wheat from the Black Sea. 25:42 Caitlin Welsh: The Russian Ukraine war is limiting access to wheat for Lebanon, already in one of the worst economic crises in the world. Lebanon has not recorded economic growth since 2017 and food price inflation inflation reached 400% in December 2021. Lebanon procures approximately 75% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. 28:48 Grant Rumley: Russia is one of the few countries in the world to maintain a relatively positive diplomatic standing with nearly every country in the Middle East. It does so through a combination of an active military presence, high level diplomatic engagement, and a concerted effort to position itself as a viable source of arms, should countries seek non-US material. 29:08 Grant Rumley: Russia's military presence in the region is well documented by Russian MOD statements. Russia has deployed over 60,000 troops to Syria since intervening in 2015. From its two bases in Syria, Hmeimim and Tartous, Russia is able to project power into the eastern Mediterranean, influence the course of the Syrian civil war, and intervene in countries like Libya. 29:47 Grant Rumley: Russia's invasion of Ukraine, however, threatens Russia standing in the region. Already reports indicate Russia has begun withdrawing some troops and mercenaries from the region to support its invasion of Ukraine. While we can expect these reports to continue if the war continues to go poorly for Russia, I'm skeptical of a full Russian withdrawal, and instead expect Russia to continue to consolidate its forces until it's left with a skeleton presence at Hmeimim and Tartous, its most strategic assets in the region. 30:26 Grant Rumley: On arms sales, the Russian defense industry, which has struggled to produce key platforms following sanctions initially placed after its 2014 invasion of Ukraine, will likely have to prioritize replenishing the Russian military over exporting. Further, customers of Russian arms may struggle with the resources to maintain and sustain the material in their inventory. Still, so long as Russia is able to make platforms, there will likely always be potential customers of Russian arms. 41:25 Grant Rumley: I definitely think customers of Russian arms are going to have several hurdles going forward, not only with simply maintaining and sustaining what they've already purchased, but in some of the basic logistics, even the payment process. Russian bank complained last month that it wasn't able to process close to a billion dollars in payments from India and Egypt over arms sales. I think countries that purchase Russian arms will also now have to consider the potential that they may incur secondary sanctions, in addition to running afoul of CAATSA [Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act-Related Sanctions]. I think from from our standpoint, there are many ways that we can amend our security cooperation approach. The Middle East, I think is a key theater for the future of great power competition, not only have we been competing with Russia in terms of arms sales there, but China increasingly has sold armed drones to the region. They've sold it to traditional partners, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE. And what they're doing is is oftentimes what we're not willing to do, our partners in the region seek co-production, they seek technology sharing. China and Russia are willing to work together to build these advanced platforms, Russia and the UAE inked an agreement several years ago to produce a fifth generation fighter. Nothing's come of that yet. China and Saudi Arabia, however, signed an agreement a couple of months ago to jointly produce armed drones in Saudi Arabia. And so I think the US may want to think creatively in terms of both what we sell, how we sell it, and what we're doing to make this more of a relationship and something beyond a strict transaction. 43:39 Grant Rumley: Their presence in Syria has evolved from a modest airstrip in 2015, to a base at Hmeimim that by open source reporting can serve as a logistics hub, a medical hub, it has the runways to host Russia's most advanced bombers. There was reports before Ukraine that Russia was deploying two 22 bombers there and hypersonic missiles. Their facility at Tartous, likewise. Their ability to stage naval assets there has expanded to they can now stage up to 11 ships there. So it has grown from from a rather modest beginning to something much more challenging from a US standpoint. In terms of what we can we can do, I think we can continue to support Ukraine and the defense of Ukraine, and the longer that Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, the harder it will be for Russia's military to extend and maintain its presence in the Middle East. 1:01:45 Grant Rumley: I think the US has several partners in the middle of major Russian arms purchases that we can, like Turkey and the S 400, that has requested the F 16, or Egypt and Sukhoi Su-35, that has requested the F 15. I'm not saying we have to make a deal right now for that, but I think it's clear that these countries are going to have gaps in their capabilities where they had planned on having Russian platforms to complement, and we can work with our partners and work with our own defense industry and see if there's ways in which we can provide off ramps for them to gradually disinvest these Russian platforms. 1:03:00 Frederic Wehrey: When countries in the in the region buy US arms, they believe they're buying much more than the capability, the hardware, that they're purchasing an insurance policy. I think especially for states in the Gulf, there's a fundamental sense of insecurity. These are states that face Iran, but they're also autocrats. They're insecure because of their political systems. They face dissent from within. We saw that with Egypt. So they're purchasing a whole stream of US assurances -- they believe they are. 1:06:00 Grant Rumley: The issue of of co-production is one means to address a common complaint, which is buying from America takes too long. That its too complicated, that if we get in line to buy something from the US, we're going to have to wait years to get it. A good example is the F 16. There are over 20 countries in the world that fly the F 16. We currently -- Lockheed Martin builds it out of one facility. That facility, if you get in line today, you're probably not getting the F 16 for five years from when you sign on the dotted line for it. In the 70s and 80s, we co-produced the F 16 with three other European countries and we were able to get them off the line faster. The initial order at those facilities was for 1000 F 16s. The initial order for the F 16 plant in South Carolina was for 90 F 16s for Taiwan and Morocco. And so from an industry standpoint, it's a question of scale. And so they're not able to ramp up the production because while the demand may get closer to 1000 over time, it's at 128. Last I checked, it's not there yet. And so I think we can use foreign military financing, longer security cooperation planning, working with our partners on multi-year acquisition timetables to then also communicate and send a signal to the defense industry that these are orders for upgrades, for new kits that are going to come down the road. You can start to plan around that and potentially address some of these production lags. 1:17:52 Grant Rumley: China has a lot of legacy Russian platforms, and will likely be a leading candidate to transfer some of these platforms to countries that had purchased Russian arms in the past and may be seeking maintenance and sustainment for them. I think China's already active in the Middle East, it's already flooding the market with armed drones. It's already looking to market other platforms as well. It's sold air defense systems to Serbia. It's looking to advance its arm sales. And so if if we aren't going to be the supplier, China is going to step in. 1:18:57 Caitlin Welsh: USDA has projected that 35% of the current wheat crop from Ukraine will not be harvested this year. So their exports are curtailed, at the same time Russia's exports are continuing. Russia has been exempted. Russia's agricultural exports and fertilizer has been exempted from sanctions for the United States, EU and other countries. So Russia continues to export. In fact, USDA is estimating that Russia's exports are increasing at this time. And I'm also seeing open source reporting of Russia stealing grain from Ukraine, relabeling it, and exporting it at a premium to countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Sen. Rand Paul: ‘We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the U.S. economy' May 12, 2022 NBC News Clips Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY): My oath of office is to the US Constitution, not to any foreign nation. And no matter how sympathetic the cause, my oath of office is to the national security of the United States of America. We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the US economy. This bill under consideration would spend $40 billion. This is the second spending bill for Ukraine in two months. And this bill is three times larger than the first. Our military aid to Ukraine is nothing new, though. Since 2014, the United States has provided more than $6 billion dollars in security assistance to Ukraine, in addition to the $14 billion Congress authorized just a month ago. If this bill passes, the US will have authorized roughly $60 billion in total spending for Ukraine Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY): The cost of this package we are voting on today is more than the US spent during the first year of the US conflict in Afghanistan. Congress authorized force, and the President sent troops into the conflict. The same cannot be said of Ukraine. This proposal towers over domestic priorities as well. The massive package of $60 billion to Ukraine dwarfs the $6 million spent on cancer research annually. $60 billion is more than the amount that government collects in gas taxes each year to build roads and bridges. The $60 billion to Ukraine could fund substantial portions or entire large Cabinet departments. The $60 billion nearly equals the entire State Department budget. The 60 billion exceeds the budget for the Department of Homeland Security and for the Department of Energy. And Congress just wants to keep on spending and spending. U.S. Efforts to Support Ukraine May 12, 2022 Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Witnesses: Jessica Lewis, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Erin McKee, Assistant Administrator for Europe and Eurasia, U.S. Agency for International Development Karen Donfried, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, U.S. Department of State Beth Van Schaack, Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, U.S. Department of State Clips Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA): Are we making it very clear to Russia that we do not want to pose an existential threat to them, that our only goal is to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine? Karen Donfried: We are making it very clear to Russia that this is not a conflict between Russia and the United States. We are not going to engage directly in this war. President Biden has been explicit in saying we are not sending US troops to fight in this war. So I do believe we have made that clear. Our goal here is to end a war not to enlarge it. Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH): As you all are waking up every morning, I know with the thought in mind that America's role here is to help Ukraine win and I want to talk a little about how we define victory. When Secretary Austin said after meeting with President Zelenskyy, that we can win this war against Russia -- this happened a few weeks ago -- I thought that was positive. On Monday, the foreign minister of Ukraine, who all of us have had a chance to visit with said, of course, the victory for us in this war will be a liberation of the rest of the territory. So Assistant Secretary Donfried, first, just a yes or no. Do you believe Ukraine can win this war? Karen Donfried: Yes. Sen. Rob Portman: And how would you define victory? Would you define victory as requiring the return of all Ukraine sovereign territory, including that that the Russians seized in 2014? Karen Donfried: Well, Senator Portman, thank you for that question. And thank you for your engagement on these issues. Your question very much relates to where Chairman Menendez began, which is, are we in a position of believing that it is Ukraine that should be defining what winning means? And I agreed with Chairman Menendez's statement on that, and that is where the administration is. We believe Ukraine should define what victory means. And our policy is trying to ensure Ukraine success, both by — Sen. Rob Portman: So the administration's official position on victory is getting Crimea back and getting the Donetsk and Luhansk region back as well. Karen Donfried: Again, I believe that is for the Ukrainians to define. Karen Donfried: Against this threat to regional security, global stability, and our shared values, we are supporting freedom, democracy, and the rules based order that make our own security and prosperity and that of the world possible. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ): I believe we must also think about reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, the tools and ongoing governance and economic reforms, specifically in the judicial space, that will facilitate rebuilding critical Ukrainian sectors and attracting foreign investment. The Impact of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine in the Middle East and North Africa May 11, 2022 House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Defense held a budget hearing on the Department of Defense. Witnesses: Lloyd J. Austin III, Secretary of Defense Michael J. McCord, Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller)/Chief Financial Officer General Mark A. Milley, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Clips 21:40 General Mark Milley: Alongside our allies and partners, at any given time approximately 400,000 of us are currently standing watch in 155 countries and conducting operations every day to keep Americans safe. 21:56 General Mark Milley: Currently we are supporting our European allies and guarding NATO's eastern flank, in the face of the unnecessary war of aggression by Russia, against the people of Ukraine, and the assault on the democratic institutions and the rules based international order that have prevented great power war for the last 78 years since the end of World War Two. We are now facing two global powers, China and Russia, each with significant military capabilities, both who intend to fundamentally change the current rules based order. Lindsey Graham declares, "let's take out Putin" and says there is "no off-ramp in this war" May 9, 2022 Clips Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC): If Putin still standing after all this then the world is going to be a very dark place China's going to get the wrong signal and we'll have a mess on our hands in Europe for decades to come so let's take out Putin by helping Ukraine Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Secretary ofDefense Lloyd J. Austin III Remarks to Traveling Press April 25, 2022 Jen's Highlighted PDF Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine March 26, 2022 Jen's Highlighted PDF U.S. Policy and Russian Involvement in Syria November 4, 2015 House Foreign Affairs Committee Cover Art Design by Only Child Imaginations Music Presented in This Episode Intro & Exit: Tired of Being Lied To by David Ippolito (found on Music Alley by mevio)