Podcasts about mmbtu

Ein Standpunkt von Hartmut Leitz.Europa, einst strahlender Handelsgigant, taumelt unter der Last eigener Fehlentscheidungen. Durch eine Politik der Selbstsabotage hat die EU ihre wirtschaftliche und geopolitische Stellung ins Wanken gebracht – ein Monument der Kurzsichtigkeit in einer Welt, die sich rasant neu sortiert. Billige Energie war das Fundament industrieller Dominanz, doch in einem Akt selbstgewählter Askese hat Europa russische Ressourcen verbannt und sich in die Fänge teurer Alternativen begeben. Währenddessen weben Trump und Putin ein Netz pragmatischer Bündnisse, das die Machtachsen der Welt neu ausrichtet – und Europa in die Zuschauerrolle verbannt.Die Geister von Nord Stream und Europas Energie-DesasterEin leises Flüstern durchzieht die Hinterzimmer der Macht: Nord Stream könnte dereinst als russisch-amerikanisches Gemeinschaftsprojekt wiedererstehen. Die einstige Pipeline, die 2022 unter mysteriösen Umständen in die Tiefe gerissen wurde – oft den USA zur Last gelegt –, könnte zum Symbol einer neuen geopolitischen Ordnung werden. Washington und Moskau, die Titanen von Ressourcen und Regulierung, würden damit das Preisorakel Europas in ihren Händen halten. Die EU hingegen ächzt unter Energiekosten, die sie selbst in astronomische Höhen getrieben hat: 50 US-Dollar pro MMBtu waren 2023 Realität – ein ferner Albtraum verglichen mit den 2 bis 3 US-Dollar in vergangenen Jahren.Statt sich durch Diplomatie neue Wege zu eröffnen oder die eigene Kernkraft wiederzubeleben, hat Europa eine Sackgasse errichtet, aus der es keinen eleganten Ausweg gibt. Währenddessen sichern sich die USA und Russland ihre Energiesphären, und die EU bezahlt den Preis für moralische Starrheit mit industrieller Marginalisierung.Trump, Putin und das diplomatische SchachspielIn Washington und Moskau wird Realpolitik mit der Präzision eines Schachmeisters betrieben. Trump, der politische Straßenkämpfer, deutet an, den Ukraine-Krieg mit einem Handstreich zu beenden – vielleicht mit Grenzverschiebungen, die den Lauf der Geschichte besiegeln. Putin, der Stratege im Kreml, greift nach neuen Märkten: Indien bezieht täglich 1,5 Millionen Barrel russisches Öl, China sichert sich 38 Milliarden Kubikmeter Gas pro Jahr über Power of Siberia. Während sich Eurasien stabilisiert, wird die EU weiter ins Abseits gedrängt.Ein gemeinsames Nord Stream-Projekt könnte diesen Kurs besiegeln: Russland als Rohstoffgigant, die USA als technologischer Lenker – und Europa als zahlender Statist. Ein perfides Gleichgewicht, das aus einer schwachen EU eine leicht lenkbare Wirtschaftszone macht.Die NATO-Falle: Milliarden für eine ungewisse SicherheitTrump fordert von der NATO 5 Prozent des BIP für Verteidigung – ein massiver Sprung gegenüber den 2 Prozent, die bisher als Maßstab galten. Die USA selbst geben lediglich 3,4 Prozent aus, doch Europa soll bluten. Ohne die gewohnte Schutzmacht der USA ist die EU gezwungen, ihre Rüstungsausgaben dramatisch zu steigern: Das Bruegel-Institut rechnet mit 262 Milliarden US-Dollar und 300.000 zusätzlichen Soldaten, um den entstehenden Vakuum entgegenzuwirken.Polen kauft eilig US-Waffen, Litauen plant bereits 5 Prozent des BIP für Rüstung – doch der Kontinent als Ganzes bleibt orientierungslos. Während Russland seine Armee mit asiatischen Energieeinnahmen finanziert, muss Europa die Mittel aus einer bereits geschwächten Wirtschaft abziehen. Die Exportnation Deutschland, die einst von Innovationskraft lebte, wird in den Sog wirtschaftlicher Stagnation gezogen...hier weiterlesen: https://apolut.net/die-exportnation-deutschland-ist-ersetzbar-von-hartmut-leitz/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we had two stellar guests for a COBT discussion focused on Germany's significant upcoming election on February 23. We had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Lars Schernikau alongside Dr. Daniel Stelter. Lars is an energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, strategic advisor, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy.” We have known Lars for a few years now and reached out to him for advice on an expert voice on the German elections, economy and overall macro outlook. He recommended Daniel and we were thrilled to get them both to join us. Daniel is an acclaimed macroeconomist and strategy consultant and his background includes 20 plus years as Senior Partner and Executive Committee Member at Boston Consulting Group. More recently, he founded the think tank “Beyond The Obvious.” We were delighted to visit with Lars and Daniel. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with asking Lars and Daniel for background on whether the upcoming election is likely to bring meaningful economic or policy reforms and probing its broader implications for Germany's economic trajectory. They shared their unfortunately low expectations for significant change, pointing to Germany's ongoing economic decline, which has been exacerbated by policy decisions during COVID, including heavy spending and regulatory shifts, and further strained by high energy prices, energy scarcity, and deindustrialization driven by the country's aggressive transition to renewables and more recent closure of their nuclear plants. We explore Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio as a strategic advantage, though constrained by debt brake laws, potential reforms to reallocate funds from subsidies and social programs toward more productive investments, hidden liabilities that significantly increase Germany's actual debt burden, European debt dynamics, the Euro, and speculation on whether the U.S. will prioritize strengthening Germany's economic resilience or focus on attracting German industries to America for lower energy costs. We touch on potential future scenarios, including the possibility for Germany to delay coal plant closures or access domestic gas reserves, the U.S.'s vested interest in supporting Germany and the EU to maintain geopolitical stability, and the increasing political polarization in Germany. We also discuss how China's long-term strategic planning in EVs, batteries, and raw materials has outpaced European efforts, the strategic implications of sanctioning Russia, and much more. It was a candid look at the challenges and opportunities facing Germany and Europe and we can't thank Lars and Daniel enough for sharing their time and thoughts with us. Mike Bradley started us off by highlighting that broader equity markets seem to be focused solely on Trump-Trump-Trump policies, whether that be recent talks between Russia/U.S. on a Ukrainian peace deal or reciprocal tariff threats. He noted that there's little in the way of market moving economic data this week which might allow broader equity markets to continue gravitating higher. Meta's stock price has been up twenty consecutive trading days (an equity market record) and NVIDIA will be reporting quarterly results next week, which could create a lot of volatility and set the tone for the Technology sector in the coming weeks. On the crude oil front, he discussed rumors that OPEC might look to delay oil production increases (120kbpd) that were scheduled for April. The recent pullback in crude oil price also seems to be grounded in optimism for a breakthrough in the Ukrainian war. On the natural gas front, European natural gas price is trading at ~$15/MMBtu, down ~$2/MMBtu over the last few weeks, on optimism the EU will allow a more flexible gas storage refill this year. European gas storage levels are 44% full versus the 5-year average of 54% full, which provides a bit of a gas price floor heading into summer. He w

Today we were delighted to welcome the Honorable Lisa Raitt, Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC, for an insightful discussion focused on the implications of recent U.S.-Canada trade developments. Lisa joined CIBC Capital Markets in 2020 following an eleven-year tenure in the Government of Canada. Her distinguished career includes serving as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party of Canada, as well as serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Labor, and Minister of Transport. We were thrilled to host Lisa and hear her valuable perspective on the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Canada. In our conversation, we explore the Canadian view on President Trump's recent comments regarding tariffs and Canada's auto manufacturing industry, along with the broader implications for U.S.-Canada trade relations. We discuss Canada's political landscape, including Prime Minister Trudeau's decision to step down after losing party support, the Conservative Party's growing momentum under Pierre Poilievre, and Canada's economic challenges and growth concerns. We touch on the unifying effect trade tensions have had on Canadian political and business communities, the potential for retaliatory measures, the need for more power generation, transmission, and distribution to support Canada's economic growth, and intra-Canada trade complications that impact Canada's competitiveness. Lisa provides insight into the impact of the Canadian dollar and interest rates, how currency fluctuations affect key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and sports, the deep economic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, whether ongoing trade disputes could fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries, and more. We are very thankful to Lisa for sharing her time and perspective. Mike Bradley started off the show by highlighting that President Trump's new tariffs and tariff threats are increasing volatility, but that for the most part, bond and equity markets have been moving sideways. He noted January CPI & PPI will be reported over the next two days which could create added market volatility for bonds and equities. If both inflation reports print cooler-than expected, it will likely lead to intensifying pressure from Trump for the FED to cut interest rates at the March FOMC Meeting. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied this week to ~$73/bbl and crude oil time spreads are pointing to a physically tight oil market. Oil price continues to be impacted by on/off tariff threats and continued OPEC production curtailments but was aided this week on news that Russian oil exports are being impacted by tighter Russian oil sanctions. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas prompt price has rebounded to ~$3.50/MMBtu on colder weather and the 12-month natural gas strip is now trading above $4.00/MMBtu. BP indicated on their Q4 call that at current U.S natural gas prices, they were contemplating picking up gas rigs “now” which is a new development. He also noted that European natural gas price was trading at ~$17/MMBtu (~$100/bbl oil equivalent) because European gas storage is draining faster than expected due to colder winter weather and poor renewable performance/utilization. He ended by flagging Equinor's recent strategy shift (significant reduction in renewables capex thru 2030) and also noted that BP is calling for a “fundamental reset” of their strategy at their Capital Markets Day (Feb 26th). Robert Kester added his thoughts on AI's dominance in global discourse, highlighting this week's high-profile AI Summit in Paris and different global approaches to AI, including the U.S.'s free-market stance, Europe's push for regulation, and China's state-backed AI expansion. We hope you all enjoy the discussion with Lisa as much as we did. Our best to you all – and to our friends up north, let's work this out, eh!

President Trump wants lower energy prices and higher oil and gas production and exports—objectives that seem irreconcilable, given the relatively high cost of producing oil from US shale formations. We estimate that US energy companies need WTI crude prices of $55/bbl and natural gas at $3.50/MMBtu for drilling to be profitable, with $75 and $3.75 required to significantly increase drilling. However, reducing royalties and taxes, easing methane regulations, and streamlining federal drilling permits could lower breakeven costs by $10/bbl for oil and $0.60/MMBtu for gas. On a production-weighted average basis, this would reduce the breakeven point for US oil production from $55 to $45. Ultimately, the impact of these lower costs on US oil production depends on the decisions of the 275 independent companies in the upstream shale sector.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research     This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895361-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

It was an honor today to welcome Dr. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Dr. Grossi is a distinguished diplomat with an esteemed career spanning 40 years in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. He has served as the IAEA's Director General since December 2019 and was re-appointed for a second four-year term beginning in December 2023. Prior to his current role, Dr. Grossi served as Argentina's Ambassador to Austria. Other career highlights include Argentine Representative to the IAEA, President of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Assistant Director General for Policy and Chief of the Cabinet at the IAEA, and Chief of Cabinet at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. He began his career as Argentine Representative to NATO. We were delighted to visit with Dr. Grossi. In our conversation, we discuss the IAEA's critical role in nuclear safety, development, and nonproliferation amid global challenges, including efforts to prevent nuclear accidents in active conflict zones. Dr. Grossi discusses the agency's unprecedented decision to establish a permanent presence of IAEA experts at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine to ensure safety and security, the agency's ongoing communication with both Ukrainian and Russian leadership to mitigate risks during wartime, and the dedication of the IAEA staff who have volunteered for these high-risk missions. We cover the IAEA's history, which was inspired by President Eisenhower's “Atoms for Peace” initiative, the agency's evolving mission in regulatory and industrial standardization, the increasing interest in nuclear energy as a demand-driven solution to global power needs, and how the IAEA is supporting countries through their Milestones Program to provide guidance for adopting nuclear energy. Additionally, we explore the growing role of private capital in nuclear projects and the IAEA's efforts to engage with international financial institutions including the World Bank to create a more favorable investing environment for nuclear energy, geopolitical dynamics influencing the sector, and the IAEA's collaboration with nuclear CEOs, vendors, and clients worldwide. It was a profound look at the challenges and opportunities shaping nuclear energy and we are deeply grateful to Dr. Grossi for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that even though broader U.S. equity markets continue to post new highs, they're still trying to decipher Trump's current tariff “rhetoric” from future tariff “realism.” Trump surprised markets again this weekend by vowing to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries that don't/won't commit to be anchored to the U.S. dollar. He also noted that current global events (including South Korea's President declaring Marshall Law on Tuesday & French lawmakers possibly seeking to hold a no-confidence vote to topple the French President on Wednesday) could spill over and potentially stall the runup in U.S. equities. On the crude oil market front, WTI has traded up ~$2/bbl this week (~$70/bbl) on news the U.S. is sanctioning several foreign entities tied to the Iranian crude oil tanker “shadow fleet.” OPEC delayed their virtual meeting to Dec 5th and consensus is betting OPEC will agree to delay an oil production increase by another three months. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price plunged this week to ~$3/MMBtu due to a warmer 6-10-day weather outlook and a rebound in U.S. gas production (~104bcfpd). European natural gas prices continue to stay elevated mostly due to extremely high November gas storage withdrawals. The EU raised their February gas storage target levels to 50% (up from 45%) due to growing 2025 supply concerns. On the energy equity front, Energy is among the worst performing S&P sectors this past week (down ~1%) due to the strong U.S. dollar, modest OPEC Meeting uncertainty and Canadian/Mexican crude oil

Today we had the honor of hosting Pablo Vegas, President and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Pablo was appointed as CEO by Governor Abbott in October 2022, after previously serving as Executive Vice President of NiSource and Group President of NiSource Utilities. His previous management roles included senior positions with both American Electric Power and IBM. Pablo also serves on the Global Advisory Board for the Harvard Business School and is a member of the Texas Advanced Nuclear Working Group. ERCOT manages the flow of electricity to over 27 million Texas customers and oversees one of the most unique power grids in the US. We were thrilled to hear Pablo's unique insights on the latest power developments in Texas and across the US. In our conversation, we explore ERCOT's collaboration with international and domestic grid operators to share best practices for managing intermittent resources and ensuring resource adequacy, ERCOT's unique operational advantages, and Texas's projected electricity demand growth by 2030, which equates to adding Germany's current electricity demand. We discuss the reliability risks associated with renewable energy integration, insights into the current state of battery storage capacity, and the need for Texas market design changes to better incentivize the building of more dispatchable power plants. Pablo shares details about the Texas Energy Fund's $5 billion allocation aimed at incentivizing up to 10 gigawatts of dispatchable power, economic hurdles for coal plants as well as combined-cycle gas plants under EPA regulations requiring carbon capture by the end of 2031, opportunities for nuclear energy development, and the lack of clear market pricing signals in ERCOT compared to capacity market spikes in PJM and MISO. We touch on how the new administration might approach power policy, how current federal regulations hinder power sector growth despite incentives for broader economic expansion, and more. We ended by asking Pablo for his predictions for what Texas's generation mix might look like in five years and for the future of ERCOT's connectivity with other grids. We covered a great deal of territory and can't thank Pablo enough for his insights into all these critical topics. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that markets remain in “digestion” mode as they continue to react to Trump's Cabinet picks. Over the weekend, Trump nominated Scott Bessent for Secretary of Treasury and markets responded favorably (bond yields dropped) on Monday as many investors believe he'll be more balanced on the tariff front. However, Trump surprised markets a day later by vowing that he'll levy additional tariffs on China (10%) and new import tariffs (25%) on all Canadian & Mexican goods. On the crude oil market front, WTI traded sideways/slightly down over the past week (~$69/bbl) due to a potential ceasefire deal in the Middle East. He noted that the December 1st OPEC meeting will now be virtual. OPEC's leadership will likely look to extend current production curtailments for another three months to get them through the seasonally weak Q1 period. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price in recent weeks has spiked from ~$3.00/MMBtu to ~$3.40/MMBtu due to a colder 6-10-day weather outlook. The real gas story is in Europe where natural gas price in recent weeks has spiked to ~$15/MMBtu due to an early spell of cold weather, lower LNG shipments and extremely low wind generation. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up just over 1.5% over the last week as they continue to digest Trump Cabinet picks and what policy priorities might be enacted on early in his Presidency. On the energy equity front, the Energy sector was one of the few S&P sectors down last week (~1.5%). He also noted a handful of Energy & Materials sector deals this past week and ended by discussing that the COP29 Conference in Baku c

Diversified Energy Company PLC CEO Rusty Hutson Jr. joined Steve Darling from Proactive to discuss the company's latest milestone—signing a major supply agreement with a prominent Gulf Coast LNG facility. Under this new three-year contract, starting in November 2024, Diversified will provide approximately 40 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, using a fixed pricing structure indexed to Gulf Coast prices. Hutson emphasized the significance of this agreement, which supports global energy security at a time when trading partners are grappling with supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and rising regional demands. The contract underscores Diversified Energy's reliability in natural gas production and operational efficiency, while offering the company another avenue to boost margins and ensure stable cash flows. Furthermore, Hutson noted that the company has strategically capitalized on the recent strength of natural gas prices to expand its hedge portfolio for 2025 through 2027, with an average NYMEX hedge price of approximately $3.45 per MMBtu. This proactive approach ensures steady pricing and enhances the company's long-term financial performance, positioning it to navigate future market conditions effectively. #proactiveinvestors #diversifiedenergycompanyplc #lse #dec 3nyse #dec #LNGSupply #NaturalGas #EnergyMarket #RustyHutson #ProactiveInvestors #EnergyDeals #GulfCoastEnergy #LNGExport #GlobalGasSupply#invest #investing #investment #investor #stockmarket #stocks #stock #stockmarketnews

With natural gas prices having hovered around $2/MMBtu through much of 2024, NGI's Pat Rau, senior vice president for Research & Analysis, delves into what may happen with producer activity moving into next year. Publicly traded producers have been on a tight leash the last five years in terms of production growth, he notes. With new LNG export capacity around the corner, however, publicly traded Lower 48 exploration and production (E&P) firms may push annual gas production above 5% year/year growth in 2025. Rau highlights other key developments at the end of 2024, particularly for Permian Basin E&Ps.  Meanwhile, as discussions on artificial intelligence-driven data centers turned the tide on estimates for peak natural gas-fired generation earlier this year, Rau covers the latest prognostications for the emerging demand source.

A few weeks ago, the price of natural gas fell below $2 per MMBTU, the lowest price level for energy, making it cheaper than water.  August 15th 2024  ---  Please Like, Comment and Follow 'The Ray Appleton Show' on all platforms:   ---    'The Ray Appleton Show' is available on the KMJNOW app, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever else you listen to podcasts.    ---  'The Ray Appleton Show'   Weekdays 11 AM -2 PM Pacific on News/Talk 580 AM & 105.9 KMJ    | Website  | Facebook | Podcast |   -  Everything KMJ   KMJNOW App | Podcasts | Facebook | X | Instagram   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Dr. Francisco Monaldi, Director of the Latin America Energy Program, along with his colleague Dr. Tony Payan, Director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico, with Rice University's Baker Institute. Francisco last joined us on COBT in December 2022 (episode linked here) and is an expert on Latin American energy, policy, and economics. In addition to his role at the Baker Institute, Tony is a Professor of Social Sciences at the Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez and his research focuses primarily on border studies and US-Mexico relations. It was our pleasure to visit with Francisco and Tony for a Mexico and Latin America energy and geopolitics focused discussion. In our conversation, we examine President Claudia Sheinbaum's recent election, her background as a climate scientist and former Mayor of Mexico City, concerns about her independence and potential influence from former President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), violence in the recent election, implications for democracy and governance, regional perspectives on Mexico's political trajectory, and the potential future direction of Mexico's energy policies under President Sheinbaum. Francisco and Tony share their perspectives on Mexico's decline in energy production, Mexico as a huge consumer of US (especially Texas) natural gas, the broader implications of nearshoring for US-Mexico relations, renewable energy and climate policy, and the importance of future energy policies for economic stability. We discuss Mexico's economic challenges, broader Latin American trends, the potential impact of President AMLO's policies if they persist for another decade, upcoming changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the role of US diplomacy and political leverage in shaping Mexico's policies, the need for a comprehensive framework addressing trade, immigration, and crime, and much more. It was an enlightening discussion and we are thankful to Francisco and Tony for sharing their insights with us all. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this week is crucial for bonds, with the June CPI and FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday potentially confirming or dispelling speculation about a 2024 Fed rate cut. On the crude oil front, WTI has rallied back to ~78/bbl after last week's overselling post-OPEC meeting due to production cut confusion/uneasiness. OPEC's June Monthly Oil Report (linked here) showed unchanged global oil demand estimates for 2024 and 2025, while the IEA's global oil demand estimates (~1.0mmbpd below OPEC's) will be released Wednesday. The 12-month natural gas strip has rallied to ~$3.50/MMBtu (highest since Nov '23) driven by extreme heat forecasted through the month of June which might begin to influence current sizable E&P production curtailments. In Europe, several equity markets sold off, and EU bond yields spiked, notably in France, due to heightened political risk from the EU Parliamentary vote. Conservatives fared better than expected and Green Parties lost significant seats in Belgium, France, Germany and Italy, which could put future climate goals/policies at risk. He ended by noting US equity money flows, usually directed towards Emerging/International markets for diversification, are either stagnant or reduced due to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's outperformance driven by AI and Tech equities. Jeff Tillery noted there has been significant news about the Mexican stock market's performance with Mexico and Brazil underperforming over the past one and three years, influenced by factors such as border issues, higher interest rates, post-election impacts, and cartel problems, but that Mexico's reshoring trend suggests potential gains. We hope you find the discussion as insightful and interesting as

In this episode we answer listener questions submitted by Heidi, Greg, Sarah, Nikki, Eric, and a listener who wishes to remain anonymous. This episode was filled with a wide variety of questions from the difference between MCF and MMBtu's and how to audit gas royalties, Lithium, leasing the minerals and surface rights, going through ancillary probate in New Mexico, wastewater disposal issues and earthquakes, getting information from a previous operator, and more. Some of the listener questions in this episode are addressed in my Mineral Management Basics online course, from how to read a legal description, how to perform a title search, and how to identify nearby oil and gas activity.  Thanks again to everyone who left a review or who submitted a question!  If you have a question about your minerals or royalties, send it to feedback@mineralrightspodcast.com and we may feature it in an upcoming episode! As always, resources mentiond in this episode can be found in the show notes at mineralrightspodcast.com

In the past two weeks, US Henry Hub and European TTF have rallied in price significantly. With US prices at one point climbing above $2.70/MMBtu and TTF crossing 35 EUR/MWh, we will discuss the drivers of these price moves higher, including the reduction in supply currently in place - both in US production and global LNG supply -  and the fundamental changes that we expect to see as a result of the recent price rally. Additionally, we will dive deeper into headlines surrounding Golden Pass and the Ukraine/Russia transit deal, which could have implications to our current price forecast.   Speakers:   Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4705416-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Pressured by sub-$2/MMBtu prices, many US producers have decided to cut spending on gas-directed drilling and completion activity and to scale back production in 2024. But there are signs of price improvement along the futures curve in late 2024 and thereafter, due in part to the arrival of new LNG facilities, giving operators reason for optimism. In this episode, Jeremy Beaman, natural gas news editor, talks with Bryan Mcnamara and Imre Kugler, directors of upstream research about how natural gas producers are approaching a difficult price environment and what their plans are for 2024 and 2025. Register for Global Power Markets    

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Jigar Shah, Director of the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO). Jigar joined the LPO in 2021 and is the former founder of SunEdison and former co-founder of Generate Capital. As you may know, the LPO is equipped with more than $400 billion in loans and loan guarantees to help deploy innovative clean energy, advanced transportation, and Tribal energy projects in the US that support a cleaner and stronger energy economy. With 205 active applications and an average of 2.1 new applications per week, they are busier than ever. We were thrilled to visit with Jigar for an insightful update on the LPO's progress and preview of the LPO's planned activities at CERAWeek. In our discussion, we touch on growing electricity demand and the utility loan applications the LPO has received focused on demand flexibility, grid enhancement technologies, and virtual power plants. Jigar shares his perspective on increasing interest in geothermal, nuclear and next generation hydro projects, the cost of new energy infrastructure and the impact on electricity affordability, team developments at the LPO, carbon capture and sequestration projects, EPA regulations and their impact on energy plants (particularly coal plants), tech companies' focus on securing sufficient power for their operations to meet their growing power demands (see link to AWS Talen story from this week here), and market dynamics in methane detection and reduction technologies. We discuss the critical importance of permitting reform and the LPO's connectivity with permitting-related government offices, the Presidential election's potential impact on the LPO, financing mechanisms and the LPO's interest rates, and much more. Jigar is such a fun and upbeat guy and we always enjoy a visit with him. We also appreciate that he'll field any question we throw his way, especially our questions about the inner workings of Washington DC. Thank you, Jigar! Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this week was a light economic week with the January JOLTS Job Openings report being most watched. On the broader equity market front, AI euphoria seemingly pushes equities to new highs every week, but this week has witnessed a bit of a pullback. WTI has pulled back marginally, but still trades at the high end of its 3-month trading range. OPEC extended its 2mmbpd of production cuts through Q2'24. Physical crude markets seem tight given WTI time spreads continue to trade in steep backwardation. The 12-month natural gas strip is trading up from $2.55/MMBtu to $2.85/MMBtu on news that EQT Corp has made a strategic decision to curtail ~1bcfpd of gross production through the end of March (link here). Over the last 2 weeks, lower 48 natural gas production has averaged ~2bcfpd lower than in prior weeks. On the utility sector front, he highlighted the staggering 5-year capex plans being laid out on electricity utility Q4 calls. He noted the massive YTD performance of a handful of nuclear levered electricity equities, which look to be getting rerated markedly higher (by generalist investors) due to a more robust long-term earnings growth profile and the increasing likelihood of securing lucrative long-term datacenter electricity deals. He also noted that in time, the utility sector could also be rerated higher as investors begin viewing them more as growth stocks. Jeff Tillery and Brett Rampal also joined and added their perspectives and inquiries to the discussion with Jigar. For our COBT history buffs, today's episode marks Jigar's third guest appearance on COBT. He previously joined on Feb. 27, 2023 (episode linked

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Fred Hutchison, President and CEO of LNG Allies, for a comprehensive discussion on an important and timely topic, LNG. Fred founded LNG Allies in 2014 and is a leading spokesman for the US LNG export industry with over four decades of experience in government and public relations. LNG Allies is an independent, non-profit association focused on advancing the interests of the US LNG industry and promoting the benefits of LNG exports. We were thrilled to visit with Fred. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with background on the formation of LNG Allies, the significant shift in the US from being an importer to becoming the world's largest exporter of LNG in a relatively short period, gratitude from European countries towards the US for supplying LNG in the post Ukraine invasion energy crunch, the ongoing debate about natural gas as a lower impact fuel and its role in the energy transition, the impact of recent geopolitical events and energy prices on energy security and industrial activity, and potential motivations and implications behind the Biden Administration's pause on LNG approvals. We touch on the shift in resistance to long-term LNG contracts, opposition and lobbying against LNG exports, global trust in the US as a supplier and concerns about reliability with changing administrations, the potential for LNG growth in other countries, the impact of US policy decisions on energy supply, and concern with the lack of understanding among policymakers about energy issues. Fred shares his perspective on the diverse export market for LNG, emerging markets in future LNG demand, challenges faced by countries in accessing financing for LNG projects due to credit rating issues, and much more. We ended by asking Fred for his view on the state of journalism and public debate as a writer himself. It was a wide-ranging and in-depth conversation and we can't thank Fred enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. In our discussion, you will hear we reference a few items. The IEEJ's January 2024 report is linked here and the Wall Street Journal op-ed regarding the IEA is linked here. For additional LNG reading, the LNG Allies' report on US LNG projects and contracts as of February 3rd is linked here and a recent letter to Congress on the LNG Moratorium is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing key economic, equity market, commodity and energy sector thoughts. On the economic front, January CPI printed hotter than expected, pushing the 10-year yield bond up and calling into question the pace of future FED rate cuts. On the broader equity market front, even though the hotter than expected CPI pushed the DJIA down over 500 points, he stressed that market volatility remains historically low and investor sentiment remains bullish. On the commodity market front, WTI price surged to ~$78/bbl. (+$5/bbl. on the week) which is the upper end of its 3-month trading range. He noted several recent crosscurrents effecting crude oil markets and highlighted that U.S. natural gas prompt price plunged to ~$1.65/MMBtu (lowest price level since Covid in 2020 and prior to that 1999) and noted that the 12-month strip traded down to ~$2.50/MMBtu, which is below “most” U.S. natural gas E&Ps break-even price. On the traditional energy sector front, he highlighted this week's $26 billion merger deal between Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy, w

Today we had the very interesting opportunity to visit with Ernest Scheyder, Senior Correspondent at Thomson Reuters and author of the newly released book entitled "The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives." The book was officially published on January 30th and examines the multifaceted world of metals, mining, and processing with insights from investors, miners, landowners, environmentalists, and politicians. Ernie provided a balanced perspective in telling this complex story and has an extensive background covering both shale in its heyday and now critical minerals/mining for Reuters. As you will hear, our whole team thoroughly enjoyed the book and the discussion.Our session with Ernie spanned the themes and insights in his book including the challenges and controversies surrounding the extraction of critical minerals, the complexity of mining operations, environmental concerns, community opposition, historical events and their implications for present-day mining projects, and the varying perspectives on greenfield versus brownfield mining. We touch on the lack of certainty in long-term projects across different administrations and various departments in the US, projects facing uncertainty with permitting issues, associated issues with outsourcing processing to countries like China, the tough choices the US will have to face regarding resource extraction to ensure national security, the potential for armed conflicts over critical minerals, and developing countries' desire to develop their own supply chains. Ernie also shares his experiences with environmental groups and conservationists of all types, efforts by the mining industry to establish global standards (for additional reading on "IRMA" – the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, click here), growing consumer interest in responsibly sourced materials, initial feedback Ernie has received on the book, and his overall goal to maintain a neutral viewpoint in the book. We thoroughly enjoyed the conversation!To start the show, Mike Bradley flagged the recent surge in 10-year bond yields due to hotter-than expected recent job stats, which is making traders question the consensus expectation for interest cuts in March. From an equity markets perspective, broader equity indices continue hitting all-time highs with volatility trading near historic lows. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices declined ~$4/bbl. over the last week, but in general remain directionless due to varying global crosscurrents. On the U.S. natural gas front, natural gas traded briefly below $2.00/MMBtu and investors seem to be in little rush to be stepping into natural gas levered equities today but are sniffing around for a 2025 gas-levered trade. From an energy equity market perspective, he indicated that most oil majors have reported solid Q4 results, with one of the bigger themes coming from Euro majors being a modest pivot away from alternative energy spending and favoring increasing shareholder returns. He wrapped by highlighting the boom/bust for the lithium industry, with lithium prices down ~80% from its Nov. '22 peak and with many lithium equities over the last year down >70%. Todd Scruggs emphasized the complexity involved in the energy transition by noting a recent announcement from Germany to commission 10 GW of new natural gas-fired power plants with the expectation of converting them to hydrogen fuel in the future (story linked here), Germany's intention to introduce a capacity market feature to their power market, and the overall projected surge in demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, copper, silver, and rare earths.We are e

Saudi Arabian petrochemical producers face a steep increase in production costs as the state-controlled price of ethane rises towards free market levels. -          Saudi Arabia has increased ethane price from $1.50/MMBtu to $2.50/MMBtu-          Pressure on producers as ethylene production costs rise from $75/tonne to $130/tonne-          Middle East cannot continue to rely on China as a key chemical export market-          As energy transition accelerates, chemicals will lose access to fossil-based feedstocks-          High cost of electric vehicles is deterring mainstream buyers

Are oil and gas markets too complacent about the current geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which accounts for around one third of global seaborne oil trade? Saul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial thinks so. In this week's pod, he explains how an escalation of tensions beyond the Hamas-Irael war could see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and propel oil and LNG prices to USD 200/bbl and USD 100/MMbtu respectively – dwarfing the peaks during the 2022 energy crisis.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Saul Kavonic, Senior Research Analyst, MST Financial. 

We have been intrigued by some of the news coming out of the World Economic Forum (i.e. Davos) and have been on the lookout for someone who could give us an objective, independent summary and assessment of the gathering. We were elated to connect with our special friend Dr. Dan Yergin for such a discussion. While impossible to succinctly summarize his achievements and contributions to the energy industry, Dan is the Vice Chairman of S&P Global, the Chairman of CERAWeek, and the author of several books, with his most recent being "The New Map." He is a Pulitzer prize-winner and a highly esteemed energy expert. It was our pleasure to discuss Dan's key takeaways from the event as well as preview this year's CERAWeek Conference. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with Dan's impressions of Davos and the role of major international conferences (Davos, COP, etc.), the unique role of the Founder and Chairman of the World Economic Forum Professor Klaus Schwab (bio linked here), this year's top theme, and geopolitical concerns including proxy wars, disruptions in the Middle East, and Red Sea disruption affecting oil tankers. Dan shares his perspective on oil market dynamics, OPEC+ cohesion and oil demand projections for 2024, Russian production resilience despite international service companies pulling out of the country, global energy forecasts and the gap between IEA and OPEC projections, Argentine President Javier Milei's impactful speech (linked here), power/electricity demand growth, copper and mining challenges, and more. We also discuss the CERAWeek Conference taking place from March 18 – 22 in Houston and how the conference's theme of "Multidimensional Energy Transition: Markets, Climate, Technology and Geopolitics" will translate across sessions such as LNG, geopolitical complexities, and the changing global environment. Dan never disappoints and we had a great time visiting with him (as usual!). Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting recent bullish equity market sentiment, his current energy commodity thoughts, and key things to focus on as the energy sector ramps up Q4 reporting over the coming weeks. On the equity market front, he remains concerned that equity volatility is very low and equity market sentiment is very bullish. Broader equity markets like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue making all-time highs due to continued optimism with AI and large-cap technology stocks, while smaller indices like the Russell 2000 continue to trade well below their all-time highs, therefore a narrow market breadth. Global crude oil prices have caught a bid in recent weeks (WTI at ~$75/bbl). Both Brent and WTI crude oil time spreads have moved back into backwardation, for the first time since November, which typically signals a tighter physical market, and could be related to frigid U.S. temperatures. U.S. natural gas prices plunged by ~$1.00/MMBtu over the last week, which has pushed natural gas price to ~$2.40/MMBtu. On the energy sector front, Q4 energy sector reporting has begun with the Big3 oil service companies reporting and over the next couple of weeks, energy sector reporting will broaden out to a handful of NAM land rig/frac companies, E&Ps, midstream, oil majors and refiners, all of which should provide a clearer picture of the 2024 classic energy landscape. For a more complete list of scheduled earnings in the energy and energy-related world in the next week, click here. For our COBT history buffs, today marks Dan's fourth appearance on COBT. His previous episodes include Feb. 15, 2023 (linked here), Feb. 23, 2022 (

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Rob Gramlich, Founder and President of Grid Strategies. Rob previously oversaw transmission and power market policy for the American Wind Energy Association as SVP and Interim CEO, served as Economic Advisor to FERC Chairman Pat Wood III, and was Senior Economist at PJM Interconnection. Grid Strategies is a power consulting firm headquartered in Washington, D.C. that helps their clients advance grid integration solutions. Given the recent winter weather much of the US and Canada is experiencing, this was a particularly timely discussion and we were thrilled to hear Rob's insight on power demand growth, infrastructure buildout, cost, and reliability. Our discussion with Rob focused on a report Grid Strategies recently published titled “The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over” (linked here). Rob first shares background on the Grid Strategies team and the inspiration behind writing the report. We cover aspects from the report including the need for the power industry as well as legislators and regulators to acknowledge sharply increased demand forecasts and the need for action, factors contributing to increased power demand, including data centers and AI-driven technologies, the influential players in Washington contributing to shaping policies, regions with notable growth, reliability and resource adequacy, and the need for large-scale robust transmission planning. Rob shares his thoughts on regional differences in power markets and some of the unique market designs, concerns about supply and demand challenges and its effect on rising costs, changing dynamics in the power industry and the power “basketball team” lineup, global comparisons, behind-the-fence power generation, and more. Thank you, Rob, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a lot. Power has undoubtedly become such an important issue and a topic to which we have dedicated several episodes. The most recent episodes include John Bear from MISO (linked here) and Jim Robb with NERC (linked here). Last year, we also visited with ERCOT (linked here). You may remember that in the ERCOT show, we called on our friends at Orennia to provide analytics around Texas power. For today's discussion, the team at Orennia provided additional data on summer and winter Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for solar and wind and cumulative coal retirements up to 2040 (linked here). To kick us off, Mike Bradley highlighted recent key issues across the regulatory, commodity market and energy/electricity space. On the regulatory front, the U.S. Supreme Court will be hearing arguments this week relating to the historical Chevron Deference decision; a decision to reverse could have huge implications for highly regulated industries, like the energy industry, as power to regulate could shift away from Alphabet-Letter Agencies (like the EPA and others). On the commodity front, WTI oil price continues to be stuck in a bit of a trading range (low-$70s/bbl) given that Red Sea ship rerouting/growing Middle East conflict is getting countered by global crude oil S/D that looks modestly oversupplied in Q1'24 without additional OPEC+ production cuts. He noted that U.S natural gas prices have completely round-tripped this week (down $0.30-$0.35/MMBtu to

Investors are split on the outlook for natural gas as “peak shale” may be on the horizon. Here's what to expect in 2024.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Devin McDermott, Head of Morgan Stanley's North American Energy Research Team and the Lead Commodity Strategist for Global Gas and LNG Markets. Today, I'll be talking about some of the big debates around natural gas and shale in 2024. It's Thursday, January 11th at 10 a.m. in New York. The evolution of shale as a viable, low cost energy resource, has been one of the biggest structural changes in global oil and gas markets of the past few decades. In oil, this turned the U.S. into the world's largest producer, while falling costs also led to sharp deflation in prices and global oversupply. For U.S. natural gas, which is more regionally isolated, it allowed the market to double in size from 2010 to 2020, with demand growing rapidly across nearly every major end-market. Over this period, the U.S. transitioned from a net importer of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to one of the world's largest exporters. But despite this robust growth, prices actually declined 80% over the period as falling cost of U.S. shale and pipeline expansions unlocked low cost supply. Now looking ahead after a multi-year pause, the US is set to begin another cycle of LNG expansion. This comes in response to some of the market shocks from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, including loss of Russian gas into Europe, as well as strong demand growth in Asia, where LNG serves as a key energy transition fuel. In total, projects that are currently under construction should nearly double US LNG export capacity by the later part of this decade. While the last wave didn't drive prices higher, this time can be different as it comes at a time when some investors feel like peak shale might be on the horizon. Shale is maturing, well costs and break-evens are generally no longer falling, and pipe expansions have slowed significantly due to regulatory challenges. While many of these issues are more apparent on the oil side, there are challenges for gas as well. Notably, the lowest cost US supply region, the Marcellus in Appalachia, is constrained by lack of infrastructure. As a result, meeting this demand likely elicits a call on supply growth from higher cost regions relative to last cycle. This not only includes the Haynesville, a gas play in Louisiana, but also the Eagle Ford in Texas and Basins in Oklahoma, potentially requiring prices in the $4 to $5 per MMBtu range to incentivize sufficient investment. Investors are split on the natural gas outlook. Bears argue that abundant, low cost domestic supply will meet LNG demand without higher prices, just like last time, while bulls backed higher prices this time around. Now, strong supply and a mild start to the winter heating season has actually pushed Henry Hub prices lower to close out 2023, bringing year-to-date declines to 50%. While this drives a softer set up for the first half of 2024, lower prices also come with a silver lining. This should help moderate potential investment in new supply ahead of the pending wave of LNG expansions. As a result, we believe the bearish near-term setup may prove bullish for the second half of 2024 and 2025. A dynamic many stocks in the sector do not fully reflect. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Today we were thrilled to visit with Brian Lee, Vice President and Head of US Clean Technology Research at Goldman Sachs, for 2023's final COBT episode. Brian has been with the firm since 2011 and offers a unique vantage point with his experience covering cleantech. Recently, Brian and his team released their 2024 Americas Clean Technology Outlook (linked here). With 2023 coming to a close, it was fantastic to hear Brian's end of year reflections as well as observations on the space heading into 2024.   Goldman Sachs will kick off the New Year in Miami, Florida with their flagship Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference starting on January 3rd (agenda linked here). Veriten is excited to be attending. In our conversation with Brian, we discuss Goldman's approach to cleantech as part of the broader energy team, the cyclical nature of the sector, the gyrations of the last few years, the deeper appreciation investors are now gaining for the complexities of clean energy business models, the unique mix of stocks Brian and his team cover, the global investor footprint, current investor sentiment, and of course how rising interest ratees have greatly impacted his coverage group. Brian also shares his perspective on the total addressable market for solar including residential and utility-scale solar, residential solar market potential, policy impacts on solar, trends in solar energy, the latest IRA detailed guidance from the US Treasury, the outlook for more of such detail, and much more. With revised ratings out earlier this week, we also got Brian to share his specific stock views going into next year. Time flew as we were having fun! We ended with a “lightning round” and asked Brian to share his quick thoughts on China, the water space, and surging power demand growth to close out our conversation. It was a meaty and fantastic discussion. Thank you Brian!   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting year-to-date performance for bonds, commodities and equities. He noted the 10-year U.S. government bond yield began the year trading at 3.9%, peaked at ~5.0%, and has round-tripped back down to 3.9%, mostly because the rate of inflation has been cut in half and expectations that the FED could aggressively begin cutting interest rates beginning in March 2024. WTI price began the year trading at ~$80/bbl, peaked at ~$94/bbl and is now trading at ~$74/bbl. U.S. oil production in 2023 has grown by ~1mmbpd which has been offset by OPEC cuts of ~1mmbpd. U.S. natural gas began the year trading at ~$4.50/MMBtu and is now trading at ~2.50/MMBtu, mostly due to warm early winter weather, above average natural gas storage levels, and U.S. natural gas production that has grown ~5bcfpd in 2023. He highlighted that broader equity markets posted a stellar year with the S&P 500 up ~25% and the Nasdaq up ~55%, while the energy sector posted just a modest gain for the year. The best performing subsectors in 2023 on a "total return" basis were Nuclear (+60%), Coal (+35%) & Refiners (+20%), with the worst being Renewables (-25%) & Batteries/Solar (-30%). He flagged reasons why the Illinois Commerce Commission "rejected" a multi-year integrated grid plan from two key State electric utilities and highlighted the $15B merger agreement between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, further noting that it seems to be facing early opposition from both members of Congress and Unions and could face challenges from CFIUS (foreign investment in the U.S.). Arjun Murti shared a few of his reflections from 2023 including the disparities in energy access worldwide and the massive amount of energy demand 7-8 billion people will need, the continuing significance of energy as a

Matthew Hunter was a power trader in the Western market in 2000, when California's poorly designed and managed electricity market imploded costing consumers hundreds of millions of dollars. After that, he spent much of his career at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. He gives us a deep dive into hedging – futures markets, derivatives and swaps – and how these complex price-risk mechanisms don't necessarily protect consumers in the end.A leading reason that California's market failed so spectacularly was because state law prohibited the state's Big Three utilities from hedging their price risk. At the height of the resulting energy and financial crisis, California officials rebuffed FERC's recommendations to allow the utilities to hedge their spot-market risk, and instead intervened in the market to purchase long-term power at crisis-inflated costs, saddling the state's consumers with those costs for the last two decades.Fast-forward to the extreme weather-induced collapse of the Texas market in 2021, and Hunter predicts that, as in California, consumers will be again stuck with the tab. Hedging instruments are generally pegged to a price index for the commodity, and Hunter asserts that, in Texas, unreasonably high natural gas index prices translated to the price indices for electricity, contributing to the dramatic escalation in electricity prices.  Hunter objects to consumers being the backstop for financial losses incurred by speculators in the market."If you go from a nominally and totally reasonable . . . gas price to an unreasonable gas price that then transfers itself to an unreasonable power price through contract terms of index-to-index, then it seems perfectly reasonable to roll back the index gas price to roll back the index power price to something that is reasonable," Hunter asserts. "I am not saying that it shouldn't be a scarcity value (but) there's no reason for gas even under scarcity conditions to be twelve hundred dollars per MMBtu or a thousand dollars."Support the show

US Henry Hub natural gas prices have averaged just $2.43/MMBtu this year, pushing many producers close to, or even below, their breakeven price. Mild weather and weak gas demand this past winter were largely to blame, triggering a selloff that dropped gas prices from historic highs. US gas producers were slow to respond to the selloff, however, and only recently cut rigs, slowed new well starts and dialed back completions. At over 102 Bcf/d, though, US gas production remains near record highs this summer. Will recent capex cuts be enough to balance the market? S&P Global Commodity Insights' J. Robinson, editorial lead for the Americas natural gas news team, sits down with Reed Olmstead, executive director of research and analysis for upstream, and Jeremy Beaman, editor for the American natural gas team, to discuss the outlook for US output as domestic operators readjust to leaner margins.  We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz

On July 20, JP Morgan Commodities team recommended to raise allocation to commodities. Since then, commodities rallied but the move was driven by energy, while base metals moved sideways. BCOM Energy subindex surged 24% since mid-June and balances are pointing towards more upside in the near term. We see potential for US Henry Hub gas price to reach $3.30/MMBtu if a severe Australian LNG outage were to manifest alongside continued warmer weather forecast skew. We see Brent oil price hitting $90, or even above by September. But as the market transitions from a 3Q23 inventory draw into a slight surplus in 4Q23 and 2024, prices should ease back towards mid $80s.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on Aug. 11, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483453-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4484961-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

IMF deputy managing director will visit Cairo in the coming days to meet with Egyptian officials regarding the government's economic reform program. Annual urban inflation figures for May should be released this morning (after the release of this publication) and consensus estimates are pointing at 31.4% YoY, up from 30.6% in April.The Ministry of Finance and the National Investment Bank are preparing to sell their stakes in a number of companies.Recommendations for new electricity tariffs have been sent to the cabinet for approval and could be announced within the next two weeks.The government raised its purchase price for new natural gas produced from some Western Sahara concession areas by 13%, to USD3 per MMBtu, as an incentive for companies to increase production. Saudi airline Flynas is operating three weekly flights from Jeddah to Sphinx International Airport starting 16 June 2023 and three weekly flights from Riyadh to Sphinx International Airport starting 1 July 2023. SWDY (FV: EGP22.87,OW) is keen to help construct the electrical interconnection project between Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, and Namibia, according to a cabinet statement. Arab Contractors will build four road and infrastructure projects in Angola after signing a partnership agreement with one of the country's largest companies, according to local media.Oil prices climbed about 0.9% on Wednesday to USD76.95/bbl as Saudi Arabia's plans for deep output cuts more than offset demand woes stemming from rising U.S. fuel stocks and weak Chinese export data.The EGX listing Committee agreed to list COMI's ESOP shares of 20.44 million, where paid in capital increases from EGP 29.99 billion to EGP 30.19 billion, an increase of EGP 204.45 million. 

It is a remarkable story, and despite obvious political ramifications for lawmakers representing coal states, the U.S. has cut the use of coal for electricity generation from 50% in 2005 to 19.8% in 2021, and it's still falling.In fact, according to our podcast guest, scientist and energy expert Jack Kerfoot, renewables like solar and wind power are expected to overtake coal as the world's top energy source by 2025, just two years from now.In this extremely informative episode, Kerfoot walks us through those developments and explains what they mean for the future, including impact on the world's environment as we deal with climate change.Kerfoot begins the episode with an explanation of the various types of coal, how they are used, and their cost. He says that as we move away from coal to renewables, energy prices will dramatically decrease even as we reduce the greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.Here are the costs associated with various types of energy generation, according to Kerfoot: 1) Onshore Wind – 2.6¢ to 5.0¢ per kWh 2) Onshore Solar PV – 2.8¢ to 4.1¢ per kWh 3) Natural Gas ($3.45 MMBTU) – 4.5¢ to 7.4¢ per kWh 4) Geothermal – 5.6¢ to 9.3¢ per kWh 5) Coal – 6.5¢ to 15.2¢ per kWh 6) Natural Gas Peaker Plants – 15.1¢ to 19.6¢ per kWh 7) Nuclear – 13.1¢ to 20.4¢ per kWh."Clearly, onshore wind and solar are significantly cheaper sources of electricity on a levelized cost basis than coal-fueled power plants. I anticipate that new technologies will allow the cost of electricity from wind and solar to continue to decrease over the next decade," Kerfoot says. Here's the breakdown of energy sources in the U.S.in 2021 compared to 2005: In 2005, utilities used Coal (49.6%), Nuclear (19.3%), Petroleum Gas (19.1%), Hydropower (6.7%), Oil (3.0%), and Renewable Energy (2.3%) (geothermal, solar, wind, and biomass) to generate electricity in America. In 2021, utilities used Petroleum Gas (38.8%), Coal (21.9%), Nuclear (18.9 %), Renewables (13.7%), Hydropower (6.2%), and Oil (0.5%).In 2021, all forms of renewable energy (hydropower, wind, solar, etc.) generated 19.9% of the nation's electricity.What caused this big shift to renewables?In 2005, there was growing concern across our nation over the impact of global warming, which results in climate change, Kerfoot says, adding that there was also concern over our nation's energy security. Moreover, the price of crude oil (WTI) was over US $56/Barrel and was forecast to go over $100/Barrel by 2008, which is what happened, he explains.Because of these developments, Congress passed the bipartisan “Energy Policy Act of 2005,” providing tax incentives to encourage domestic energy production including renewable energy like wind and solar, nuclear power, “clean coal”, and oil/gas technology."The legislation did Not have any significant impact on rejuvenating nuclear power development or the coal industry. The legislation Did have significant impact on the development of wind and solar technology and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technology in the oil/gas industry," Kerfoot says."The tax incentives encouraged entrepreneurs, like the late T. Boone Pickens to develop wind farms in Texas. In 2006, a wind farm boom commenced in many of the Great Plains states, which have strong consistent winds, an abundance of entrepreneurs, innovative power companies, and low population densities," he explains."Current data indicates that renewable energy (including hydropower) will greater than 50% of the nation's electricity before 2050. The times they are a changing."Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-lean-to-the-left-podcast--4719048/support.

It is a remarkable story, and despite obvious political ramifications for lawmakers representing coal states, the U.S. has cut the use of coal for electricity generation from 50% in 2005 to 19.8% in 2021, and it's still falling.In fact, according to our podcast guest, scientist and energy expert Jack Kerfoot, renewables like solar and wind power are expected to overtake coal as the world's top energy source by 2025, just two years from now.In this extremely informative episode, Kerfoot walks us through those developments and explains what they mean for the future, including impact on the world's environment as we deal with climate change.Kerfoot begins the episode with an explanation of the various types of coal, how they are used, and their cost. He says that as we move away from coal to renewables, energy prices will dramatically decrease even as we reduce the greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.Here are the costs associated with various types of energy generation, according to Kerfoot: 1) Onshore Wind – 2.6¢ to 5.0¢ per kWh 2) Onshore Solar PV – 2.8¢ to 4.1¢ per kWh 3) Natural Gas ($3.45 MMBTU) – 4.5¢ to 7.4¢ per kWh 4) Geothermal – 5.6¢ to 9.3¢ per kWh 5) Coal – 6.5¢ to 15.2¢ per kWh 6) Natural Gas Peaker Plants – 15.1¢ to 19.6¢ per kWh 7) Nuclear – 13.1¢ to 20.4¢ per kWh."Clearly, onshore wind and solar are significantly cheaper sources of electricity on a levelized cost basis than coal-fueled power plants. I anticipate that new technologies will allow the cost of electricity from wind and solar to continue to decrease over the next decade," Kerfoot says. Here's the breakdown of energy sources in the U.S.in 2021 compared to 2005: In 2005, utilities used Coal (49.6%), Nuclear (19.3%), Petroleum Gas (19.1%), Hydropower (6.7%), Oil (3.0%), and Renewable Energy (2.3%) (geothermal, solar, wind, and biomass) to generate electricity in America. In 2021, utilities used Petroleum Gas (38.8%), Coal (21.9%), Nuclear (18.9 %), Renewables (13.7%), Hydropower (6.2%), and Oil (0.5%).In 2021, all forms of renewable energy (hydropower, wind, solar, etc.) generated 19.9% of the nation's electricity.What caused this big shift to renewables?In 2005, there was growing concern across our nation over the impact of global warming, which results in climate change, Kerfoot says, adding that there was also concern over our nation's energy security. Moreover, the price of crude oil (WTI) was over US $56/Barrel and was forecast to go over $100/Barrel by 2008, which is what happened, he explains.Because of these developments, Congress passed the bipartisan “Energy Policy Act of 2005,” providing tax incentives to encourage domestic energy production including renewable energy like wind and solar, nuclear power, “clean coal”, and oil/gas technology."The legislation did Not have any significant impact on rejuvenating nuclear power development or the coal industry. The legislation Did have significant impact on the development of wind and solar technology and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technology in the oil/gas industry," Kerfoot says."The tax incentives encouraged entrepreneurs, like the late T. Boone Pickens to develop wind farms in Texas. In 2006, a wind farm boom commenced in many of the Great Plains states, which have strong consistent winds, an abundance of entrepreneurs, innovative power companies, and low population densities," he explains."Current data indicates that renewable energy (including hydropower) will greater than 50% of the nation's electricity before 2050. The times they are a changing."This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4719048/advertisement

Some global investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Pimco, now think the Federal Reserve will pause on its tightening cycle when it meets next week to prevent the US banking crisis from intensifying.   Global investment banks are calling for further depreciation in the EGP and a major rate hike of 200-300 bps. The number of tourists visiting Egypt jumped 34% y-o-y during January and February 2023. Traffic in the Suez Canal recorded yesterday the highest daily rate with 107 vessels and a total net tonnage of 6.3 million tons. Natural gas will continue to be sold to electricity plants affiliated with the Electricity Ministry at USD3/mmBtu while relieving the Ministry of Finance from the USD0.25/mmBtu it used to bear in subsidies. AMER reported a 28.8% y/y decrease in FY22 revenue to EGP1.3 billion and FY22 net loss before minority of EGP195.2 million, compared to FY21 net profit before minority of EGP83.2 million. ADQ is reportedly in early talks with the government to acquire a 10-15% stake in the state-owned Delta Sugar Company. Egypt and Greece are in the process of selecting a consultant to conduct feasibility studies for the USD4 billion EuroAfrica Interconnector that will link their electricity grids. Italian cable manufacturer Prysmian is expected to finish manufacturing the EUR221.6 million subsea cable that will link the power grids of Egypt and Saudi Arabia and have it installed by the end of December. Emirates Global Aluminum company is open to investing in the field of electircity, renewable energy and green hydrogen in Egypt.              Mansour Auto is planning to invest USD16 mn in a program that will see manufacturing of new models across their brands portfolio. 

Today we had the pleasure of hosting John Dowd, CEO of GoGreen Investments, in our offices. John has spent the past 30 years investing in and analyzing energy, most recently at Fidelity, and in 2021 raised over $275 million to create GoGreen Investments. A few months ago, GoGreen announced they were taking Lifezone Metals public, creating the first nickel resource listed on NYSE. We were thrilled to visit with John for a minerals and mining focused discussion. Our conversation spanned several elements of the energy transition. We touch on John's story and how and why he chose to focus on minerals, the GoGreen team, their nickel sulfide project in Tanzania, the geopolitics involved in mining, the massive amount of investment needed across the full energy spectrum, and the effects of the IRA on sourcing minerals around the world. We also discuss John's observations on the energy transition from starting almost two years ago to today, investor attitudes and structural features of spacs, the technology involved in mining, electric vehicles overall, the auto companies and supply chains, lessons learned from oil and gas investing, political risks from Tanzania to Massachusetts, what Wall Street has right and perhaps wrong on energy investing today, and many more topics made possible by John's thoughtfulness and his deep energy experience. We ended the session with John's optimistic view for the energy world ten years from now. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by flagging that the substantial move higher in Treasury yields (10 year - nearing 4%) was “taking the wind out” of the stock market. He also highlighted the continued plunge in US natural gas price with both prompt and the 12-month natural gas strip trading at/near two-year lows. He noted that with the current 12-month natural gas strip below $3.00/MMBtu that it would result in multiple natural gas rig drop announcements by E&Ps over the coming weeks/months. He ended the conversation by signaling that this week would be a very heavy week of Q4 energy reporting, and one dominated by E&Ps. Todd Scruggs also joined the crew for today's discussion. As always, thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

Propane Rejection at natural gas plants at natural gas trades at $26 per mm btu at Opal WY Hub and peaked at above $50!. Natural gas producers leave propane high and dry as the stop making propane because it's more profitable to leave it in the Nat gas stream. EIA-  In Wyoming, prices rose at two major hubs which are key sources of supply for the West Coast: at the Opal Hub, the price increased $26.41 from $26.37/MMBtu last Wednesday to $52.78/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at the Cheyenne Hub in southeast Wyoming rose $29.15 from $5.73/MMBtu last Wednesday to $34.88/MMBtu yesterday.https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-2https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/emergency/wsc-msc-ssc-esc-regional-emergency-declaration-no-2022-016-heating-fuelhttps://governor.utah.gov/executive-orders/https://governor.wyo.gov/state-government/executive-orders

The ASX started the week in negative territory, closing Monday's session down 0.45% as investors sharply sold off gold and metals and mining stocks. Investor sentiment has been extremely volatile over the last few weeks amid China's easing of some COVID restrictions, surprisingly upbeat economic data out of the US and local economic data released that has moved markets especially on the GDP front.Troubled fintech company Tyro Payments (ASX:TYR) tanked more than 18% today after confirming its separate takeover talks with Potentia Capital and Westpac Banking Corporation have both concluded, as the discussions have not resulted in offers the board feels fairly value Tyro. Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) shares were also sharply sold-off today as investors responded to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's plan to place a price cap on domestic coal and gas sales.Gold miners had a tough start to the week as the price of the precious commodity is trading more than half a percent lower around US$1,787 per ounce. Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) fell over 3%, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) lost 3.8% and Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) ended the day down more than 4%.The winning stocks today were led by BrainChip Holdings (ASX:BRN) jumping 9.38% despite no price sensitive news out of the AI software and hardware technology company today. Megaport (ASX:MP1) and Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) each also added over 4% and 3.5% respectively today. And on the losing end, Nanosonics (ASX:NAN) tanked 9.92%, Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) fell 7.82% and Silver Lake Resources (ASX:SLR) lost 7.52%.The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients today were Warrego Energy (ASX:WGO), Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), and the BetaShares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (ASX:AAA).On the commodities front, the price of oil has rebounded as the Keystone pipeline, a key pipeline in North America which links fields in Canada to refiners on the US Gulf Coast, remains shut, on top of easing COVID restrictions in China boosting demand outlook for oil. Crude oil is up almost 1% at US$71.75 per barrel, natural gas is up 10.31% at US$6.89 per MMBtu, coal is up 1.77% at US$402.50 per tonne, uranium is up 0.41% at US$48.70 per pound and iron ore is up 1.36% at US$111.50 per tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened to buy 67.79 US cents, 92.80 Japanese Yen, 55.46 British Pence and NZ$1.06.After the Closing Bell Britain's trade balance data for October and GDP for October are both released.

The local market extended its decline on Tuesday, closing the session down just 0.07% as investor confidence has been dampened in recent days by Fed officials warning that higher interest rate hikes are to be expected despite inflation in the US slowing. Lithium miners took a hit today on the back of a poor trading session on Monday for US lithium stocks despite the price of lithium remaining strong. The decline in lithium stocks today may be due to investors taking profits from the recent rally in lithium stocks, or the market moving away from higher risk stocks amid the expectation for higher interest rate hikes to come in the US despite inflation starting to cool. Core Lithium (ASX:CXO), Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) and Allkem (ASX:AKE) each fell more than 8% on Tuesday. The technology sector rallied today, offsetting some of the losses weighing on the market in the REIT and materials sectors. The winning stocks of the session today were, Imugene (ASX:IMU) adding 7.7%, Incitec Pivot (ASX:IPL) rallying 5.88% and Elders (ASX:ELD) closing the session up 4.7%. On the losing end, Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) fell almost 16% today amid weakness among lithium stocks and on the back of Macquarie downgrading Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) to a neutral rating. Allkem (ASX:AKE) also lost 12.36% in the lithium sell-off and Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA) closed the day down 9.62%. The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients today were Core Lithium (ASX:CXO), Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) and MSL Solution (ASX:MSL), which rocketed 70% today after announcing it has received and accepted a takeover offer implying an equity value of $119 million. All eyes were on the RBA's meeting minutes from November released today which outlined that the RBA is not ruling out further rate hikes or a pause, it is keeping its options open to address inflation and is not on a set rate hike path. On the commodities front today, crude oil is down 4.16% to US$85.175/barrel, natural gas is up 2.31% at US$6.07/MMbtu, coal is up 1.09% at US$330.35/ton, gold is trading down 0.05% at US$1770.94/ounce, and iron ore is up 3.74% at US$97/tonne. The Aussie dollar has strengthened to buy 66.96 US Cents, 56.77 British Pence, 94 Japanese Yen and 1 New Zealand Dollar and 10 cents.

Cabinet announced yesterday a new gas pricing formula for cement and petchem producers, whereby:Cement producers will pay USD12/mmbtu, which will impact only SVCE since it is the sole local producer that is still using gas. The rest use coal and petcoke mainly. It is notable that coal, at current prices, is equivalent to USD17/MMBtu in gas prices.The formula for petchem producers for the production of ethane/propane mix will be: 20%*ICIS average monthly commodity price/50, with floor cost of USD4.50/mmbtu.SKPC will bear the cost of gas as per the formula stated above in addition to a premium that will be announced by EGPC. This will yield a gas cost that is less than or equal to what the company currently bears (less than USD8/mmbtu).SKPC valuation ranges from EGP10-14, depending on the final gas cost (USD6-7/MMBtu) . SKPC is looking into acquiring Ethydco fully (where it currently owns 20% only) through a share swap after the valuation of both entities.This merger should be positive for SKPC provided Ethydco's valuation is fair and not pumped up beyond reasonable assumptions.Annual urban inflation picked up in September to 15%, up from 14.6% in August, while monthly urban inflation recorded 1.6%, accelerating from 0.9% in August, due to increases in food items and weaker EGP.The government is looking to launch a national tourism strategy in 1Q2023 to help the country attract 30 million tourists a year.The President approved a KWD750,000 loan from Kuwait to fund the feasibility study of a planned railway linking Egypt with Sudan.684 companies received EGP5.4 billion in the framework of the lump-sum payment initiative of export subsidy dues. The net subsidies reached EGP4.3 billion after deducting taxes and debts.QNBA 3Q22 bottom line came in at EGP2,577 million (+1% q/q, +35% y/y), bringing 9M22 bottom line to EGP7,332 million (+22% y/y).CICH's asset management launched an equity fund tracking the EGX30 Capped index.MNHD signed a contract with B.TECH whereby B.TECH will relocate its headquarters to Kinda in Taj City, with an area of 12k sqm scheduled to be delivered by the end of 2023.According to a meeting between the Prime Minister and real estate developers, there is a dedicated session on the real estate sector at the economic conference on 23-25 October 2022, given interest in ways to boost the sector and in proposals to attract foreign and Egyptian expat property buyers. Developers at the meeting called for diversified financing options for potential property buyers and for permission to sell to foreign buyers in USD.

Recorded on August 11, 2022 https://youtu.be/dsBETJtjcu4 Recorded on August 2, 2022 In episode 59 of the PetroNerds podcast, Trisha Curtis is joined by David Ramsden Wood. David hits Trisha with a series of rapid fire questions from the stock market, the Fed, inflation and interest rates, the global economy and macro environment to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resilience of US shale. They get into the energy transition and the breakdown taking place across the globe. They talk about Russia's pariah status and the linkages with China. They talk about the energy transition, energy security, and the stability of power sources like coal in the year 2022. August 2, 2022 - WTI $95.78, Brent $101.91, Henry Hub $7.89, Dutch TTf $.MMBtu $60, 30 Year Mortgage 5.05%, 10 Year Yield 2.71%

US stocks suffered the worst day since June 2020 yesterday after August inflation data with concerns that Fed could go even larger and hike by a full 100 bps.Five major GCC funds are willing to participate in a financing package exceeding USD10 billion to contribute to the financing of the climate change "Nofi" program. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly followed up on more than USD 1 bn worth of MoUs for industrial investment by nine foreign and local manufacturers.The Ministry of Petroleum aims to increase the investments of foreign oil companies operating in the country to about USD7.750billion in FY2022/23, an increase of 35% YoY.FRA has approved new amendments to the rules for listing and delisting securities on the Egyptian Stock Exchange, to facilitate the process. FRA amended rules regulating margin trading, and abolished the maximum limit for margin purchases for the companies and individuals.Any of the Finance Ministry's issued securities — like sukuk and variable bonds — can now be listed on the EGX.Stock exchange aims to offer 5 or 6 new companies within 6 months, with reliance on the government IPO program. The clearing house is working to launch an app through which investors can easily collect returns and dividends.Cabinet published in the official gazette that the natural gas cost will be revised for nitrogen fertilizers producers, Gass cost is higher than the current cost (USD5.75/MMBtu) if Urea prices are above USD500/ton and lower than the current cost if Urea prices are less than USD500/ton. The floor for the formula is reached when Urea prices hit USD340/ton or below. Bottom Line: The formula is positive for long term margins but will create short term pressure on margins if Urea prices are higher than USD500/ton. ESRS's CEO, Ahmed Ezz, confirmed that the company's investment in Egyptian Steel is a long term one, denying any merger plans between the two companies, or between ESRS and IRAX.  An arbitration ruling of EGP369.4 million and USD0.55 million was issued against MBSC on the arbitration dispute filed by Qalaa Holdings subsidiary the Arab Swiss Engineering Company (ASEC) to resolve a contractual dispute. MBSC is studying the decision and said that it may appeal the ruling.  Edita is in the final stages of acquiring an additional production line for its cake segment for around EGP 20 mn. The company didn't disclose the name of the company it's negotiating with or the line's production capacity. Al Mansour International Distribution Company, Imperial Tobacco's local agent raised the selling prices for its brand "Davidoff" by EGP1-2/pack.  Japanese auto parts maker Yazaki is waiting to receive land to start building a EUR 20 mn factory in Fayoum that will export auto parts under freezone rules. Operations are set to kick off by December 2024.    

In this week's LNG Wrap, Patricia Roberts asks “What's next?” in a week that has seen gas prices rise to over $100/ MMBtu and then fall by $25/MMBtu. Join us for a roundup of news and insights.

John Harpole is the president of Denver-based natural gas broker Mercator Energy. In his third appearance on the podcast (previous episodes were on March 10, 2022, and May 25, 2021), Harpole talks about the impact that the shuttering of Europe's fertilizer plants will have on food prices and food security, soaring natural gas prices (on August 29, gas at the Dutch TTF hub was selling for $100 per mmBtu), deindustrialization, and how the shale revolution helped save the U.S. from the catastrophe now facing Europe.

Il prezzo del gas torna ai livelli di metà agosto, scendendo sotto i 260 euro. Flessione del 5,5% ad Amsterdam, dove le quotazioni si attestano a 257 euro al megawattora, mentre a Londra il prezzo scende a 465 penny al Mmbtu, segnando un meno 26%.

This year has seen a sharp rally in the oil and gas markets, leading to high prices and a delicate balancing act for global supply and demand. Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist and the Head of the European Energy Research Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be giving you an update on global oil and the European gas market. It's Thursday, the 25th of August, at 4 p.m. in London. As the world emerged from COVID, commodities have rallied strongly. Between mid 2020 and mid 2022, the Bloomberg Commodity Index more than doubled, outperforming equities significantly and fulfilling its traditional role as an inflation hedge.However, this rally largely ran out of steam in June, even for oil. For nearly two years, the oil market was significantly undersupplied. For a while, storage can help meet the deficit, but at some point, supply and demand simply need to come into balance. If that can't happen via the supply side quick enough, it must happen via the demand side, and so the oil markets effectively searched for the demand destruction price.The price level where that happens can be hard to estimate, but in June we clearly got there. For a brief period, gasoline reached $180 per barrel and diesel even reached $190 a barrel. Those prices are difficult for the global economy to absorb, especially if you take into account that the dollar has been strengthening at the same time. With the world's central banks hiking interest rates in an effort to slow down the economy as well, oil demand has started to soften and prices have given up some of their recent strength.Now these trends can take some time to play out, possibly even several quarters. As long as fears of a recession prevail, oil prices are likely to stay rangebound. However, after recession comes recovery. There is still little margin of safety in the system, so when demand starts to improve again, there is every chance the strong cycle from last year repeats itself. This time next year we may need to ask the question, 'What is the demand destruction price?' once again.Now, one commodity that has defied all gravity is European natural gas. Over much of the last decade, Europe was accustomed to a typical natural gas price of somewhere between sort of $6 to $7 per million British thermal units. Recently, it reached the eye-watering level of $85 per MMBtu. On an energy equivalent basis, that would be similar to oil trading at nearly $500 per barrel.Now, the reason for this is, of course, the sharp reduction in supply from Russia. As the war in Ukraine has unfolded, Russia has steadily supplied less and less natural gas to Europe. Now total volumes have already fallen by around about 75%. Furthermore, Gazprom announced that flows through the critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline would temporarily stop completely later this month for maintenance to one of its turbines. In principle, this will only last three days, but the market is clearly starting to fear that this is a harbinger of a much longer lasting shutdown.These exceptional prices are already leading to large declines in demand. During COVID, industrial gas consumption in Europe fell only 2 or 3%. Last month, industrial gas use was already down 19% year-on-year. With these demand declines, Europe can probably manage with the reduced supply, but to keep demand lower for longer gas prices need to be higher for longer. The gas market has clearly noticed. Even gas for delivery by end 2024 is now trading at close to $50 per MMBtu, 10x the equivalent price in the United States.The full implications of all of this for the European economy going forward are yet to become clear, but we'll be sure to keep listeners up to date on the latest developments.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

Tarek Amer has stepped down as governor of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). Prominent successor names include Hassan Abdallah, Hesham Ezz El-Arab, Hala El Said, Rania El Mashat, and Gamal Negm. Two Chinese companies are close to being awarded construction work for renewable energy plants in Egypt, by EMEA Power, a subsidiary of the Emirati Al-Nowais Group. The project investments exceed USD1.2 billion.Government discussions have been held over the past weeks with Power China and China Energy to implement a 500-megawatt wind power plant and a 500-megawatt solar power plant.Egypt's trade balance deficit in May 2022 decreased by 35.8% YoY, to reach USD2.61 billion, due to the increase in exports and a restriction on imports.Egypt's imports of mobile phones plunged by 91% YoY during the month of May 2022, to USD12.983 million, due to obstacles facing companies in importation procedures. (MTIE)Egypt's imports of passenger cars declined by 72% YoY during May, to USD85.005 million. (AUTO)HRHO 2Q22 net profit after tax and minority interest came in at EGP 344 million (0% q/q, -15% y/y, and 11% lower than our estimates of EGP 386 million) so that 1H22 reaches EGP689 million (-1% y/y). The company is currently trading at P/E22 7.8x and P/B22 0.7x.ValU has issued EGP 532.6 mn of securitized bonds.PHDC achieved solid 2Q22 sales of EGP5.1 billion, up 19.2% y/y bringing 1H22 sales to EGP10.7 billion, up 38.3% y/y. Net profit in 2Q22 reached EGP263.5 million, up 2.6% y/y and down 10.7% q/q, bringing 1H22 net profit to EGP558.5 million, up 21.0% y/y. The Board approved purchasing treasury shares. MNHD Board is open to further discussions with OCDI regarding OCDI's offer to acquire MNHD.DOMT shareholders have until Wednesday, 14 September to sell their shares to Expedition Investments, as part of its mandatory tender offer (MTO) for 34% of the company.US natural gas prices have skyrocketed to levels unseen since 2008, to USD9.33/MMBtu, the highest closing price since August 1, 2008.Crude oil inventories in the United States dropped by 21.8 million barrels to 915.8 million barrels in June, which was the lowest level since 2004.

Stock Analysis In a search for value at Wilsey Asset Management we're always looking for companies that have gone on sale with strong fundamentals. What follows are four companies from last week that were down substantially from their 52-week highs. We have not done the research to see if they're fundamentally strong, but they are definitely on sale. Snap which trades under the symbol SNAP fell to $9.96 last week and back in the fall of last year it was trading in the low $80s. We've also talked about the cannabis stocks and once again cannabis company Canopy Growth has continued to fall reaching $2.57 last week well off the high reached about a year ago of $19 a share. Back in 2018 the stock was around $50. The company trades under the symbol CGC. A company called Silver Gate Capital symbol SI which is a crypto bank, back in November was trading around $220 a share and Friday it closed at $86.50. I know cryptocurrencies have rallied lately but I don't think investors will find any value here. And lastly Carnival Cruise lines which trades under the symbol CCL closed at $9.26 last week and if you look back to September/October of last year you will discover the stock was trading around $24-$25 a share. I do believe this company has a very weak balance sheet but maybe there is some value there if one digs deeper. COVID-19 Vaccinations Last week President Biden reported that he had COVID-19 along with Dr. Fauci. They also have been very cautious and have received the vaccination and the double boosters that were recommended. It seems to me that no one really cares any longer about COVID-19 and that there is no reason to get the vaccination or the boosters if you still get the virus. What I think about is how hard Pfizer, the drug company, has pushed the vaccinations and the boosters to everyone including even infants. Their stock rose on the news last year but year to date their stock has fallen over 9%. I know this company has many other drugs but I'm just thinking that less people will be getting the vaccinations and boosters going forward and that could hit them on the revenue side. The stock is not expensive trading just under 10 times forward earnings of $5.46 and has a decent dividend yield of 3%, but I worry with the fear of Covid dropping I presume the vaccinations and the booster shots worldwide will decline. What that tells me is perhaps there could be a better time to buy Pfizer over the next six months or so. It is worth watching. Natural Gas Natural gas has been extremely volatile this year and just about a month ago it seemed like it was heading in the right direction. That has now changed as the prices for natural gas has surged 77% in the month and is on pace for its largest monthly increase on record. Natural gas hit a high of $9.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this morning which is the highest level since July 2008. This comes as Russia has said Gazprom's Nord Stream 1 pipeline will operate at just 20% of its capacity due to "turbine maintenance". This is such an important energy source and will likely lead to continued problems for inflation. Just to give you an idea how important the commodity is, natural gas is the largest source of energy for electricity generation at 38%, it's used in the industrial sector to produce chemicals, fertilizer, and hydrogen, and it's used in both the residential and commercial sectors to heat buildings and water, to cook, to dry clothes, and to operate refrigeration and cooling equipment. If we cannot get energy price inflation under control, I believe we will be unable to resolve inflation overall. Stock Revenue I was definitely not impressed by Microsoft's (MSFT) earnings report and was surprised to see the stock rally. I think it is just traders trying to "buy the dip" as the results were quite unimpressive. The company reported sales of $51.87 billion, vs. expectations of $52.44 billion and EPS of $2.23 vs. expectations of $2.29 per share. Revenue growth was just 12% and net income was up just 2% in the quarter. I say just because for a company trading at a forward P/E over 25x based on 2023 earnings, the growth should be much more impressive. Even cloud was a disappointment as revenue from Azure and other cloud services grew by 40% which decelerated from last quarter's 46% and missed analyst expectations of 43%. First quarter guidance of $49.25 billion to $50.25 billion in revenue also missed expectations of $51.49 billion. I continue to believe the stock is just too expensive, especially with numbers like this! Housing Market Rising interest rates are continuing to impact the housing market. Pending home sales just came out for the month of June and they were 20% lower than last year. Looking at the sales compared to May, sales were down 8.6% which was much wider than the 1% drop analysts were looking for. Excluding the first two months of Covid, sales came in at the slowest rate since September 2011. Mortgage applications have also remained weak as the recent report showed applications to purchase a home were down 18% compared to last year and applications to refinance were down 83% compared to last year. With a higher amount going to interest, homebuyer affordability is just too much of a problem which I continue to believe will weigh on housing prices. Chip Bill To be clear, I was initially excited about the CHIPs act, but now I think it is just silly. The whole point of the bill was to help with semiconductor manufacturing, but of course they snuck in a bunch of other money. The legislation includes $52B in subsidies for domestic production and a previously reported investment tax credit for chip plants that could be worth an estimated $24B over the next decade, but now it also includes $200B to boost scientific research. It's just silly that they call it a "chip bill" but close to 75% of the money is going towards "scientific research". Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Based on the advanced estimate for Q2 GDP we are technically in a recession which is constituted as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declares recessions and expansions, but their determination will not come for a few months. Going back to 1948 every time there were two consecutive quarters of declining GDP the economy was considered to be in a recession. Looking at current dollar GDP it actually increased 7.8% at an annualized rate, but due to inflation real GDP declined 0.9% in the quarter. The consumer portion of the report increased just 1% as spending on services accelerated during the period by 4.1%, but that was offset by declines in nondurable goods of 5.5% and durable goods of 2.6%. Gross private domestic investment weighed negatively on the report with the change in private inventories subtracting 2.01% from the headline number. Government spending also reduced the headline number by 0.33% and trade or net exports was a major surprise as it added 1.43% to the headline number. Overall, I'd say this report isn't extremely troubling, inflation has just made it harder for the economy to grow. Solar Energy Last week we did a post about the problems with solar energy in regard to the solar panels. Another problem with solar energy is it would take 13,000,000 acres to generate enough electricity for the US. And you can double that if you include energy storage, electric vehicle charging stations and increases in electrical infrastructure. So, you might say OK what's the big deal let's go ahead and do it to save the planet. Here is the problem, you already know food prices are rising and companies that want to lease land for the solar panels are turning to farmland in Texas and the Midwest. It is starting already to where some solar companies are paying $800 an acre to lease the land with high numbers being quoted at $2000 an acre. That means farmers can make a lot more money for just leasing the land than putting all the time, effort, and expense to farming the land. As you know we always talk about supply and demand, well if this were to happen there would be a drastic cut in the supply of food which would cause extremely high increases in food costs and could lead to food shortages. I don't know about you but the more I read and learn about solar as an alternative energy the less and less I'm excited about it. Raw Materials Prices on raw materials are beginning to fall dramatically which will help inflation 3 to 6 months down the road. If one looks at the current price per ton of economically sensitive copper at $7000, since March that's a decline of 32% and even since early June that's a 26% drop. A/C In the United Kingdom the weather is cooler than here in the US, but they can still see days when the thermometer climbs over 100 degrees. What is shocking is that only roughly 5% of homes in the UK have air conditioning, a far lower number than the United States with 90% of homes having air-conditioning. With all the problems we have in our country we still have many things we take for granted compared to the rest of the world. Let's remain cool on the problems that we have. Harrison Johnson, CFP®:

In this episode Matt and Lisa talk to Robbie Laney, PE, PMP, the Chief Commercial Officer at Magnolia River. Magnolia River has four professional service Business Units that provide a host of solutions— from engineering, inspection, GIS, and GeoCurrent. Magnolia River has partnered with CEM engineering to support one of the largest natural gas distribution utilities in the southeast USA in the implementation of a comprehensive turn-key Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Facility. This project, when fully constructed and operational, is expected produce over 105,000 MMBtu of renewable, clean, pipeline quality natural gas for thousands of customers in the utility's service area. Learn more about this project by clicking here: Renewable Natural Gas Partnership

In this week's RBC's Markets in Motion podcast, Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist, guest hosts to discuss his latest views on the natural gas markets. Today in our 6:15 minute podcast, we discuss the factors impacting US natural gas prices this year and beyond. Natural gas prices generally are attracting far more attention amid headlines of energy prices broadly, inflation worries and economic concerns, and even energy crises that have in many ways held outsized interest in the market. While global gas prices remain on another level, US gas prices also reached very high levels earlier this year, and even after some recent developments, they still remain quite elevated. We cover three main themes in this episode. First, geopolitical premiums are now present in US natural gas markets in a way they were not before. We draw on both an analysis we did earlier this summer as well as some learnings after an explosion that shut down a major US facility early last month. This leads us to our second point - our view for the remainder of this year. We think gas prices should average north of $6/MMBtu in the US, a view that previously was our high scenario, and now looks like the more probable one for the remainder of the year. Third, in all of our scenarios US gas prices fall next year. While we are by no means returning to the lower-for-longer price environment many had gotten used to, we do expect lower gas prices in 2023 as production comes online and there is less structural growth on the other side of the balance y/y, albeit with the caveat that geopolitics are here to stay for US natural gas.

We published this morning the earnings expectations for companies under coverage in 2Q2022/FY2022: 1) For 2Q2022, aggregated profits will surge 44% YoY, and remain stable QoQ, 2) For FY2022, aggregated profits will rise 31% YoY, 3) Stocks that will post stand-out results sequentially in 2Q22: HELI, ESRS, IRAX, ETEL, CCAP, 4) Stocks that will witness a shift from losses to profits YoY as of 2022: CCAP and EGCHGeneral Authority for Investment and Free Zones' CEO met with a Qatari investor delegation to discuss investment opportunities in the fields of the industrial sector, agriculture, financial services, and construction.Egypt and Oman signed 6 MoUs and several cooperation agreements in a number of fields throughout El Sisi's visit to Oman. Minister of Petroleum discussed with the Prime Minister a number of petrochemical projects that have the potential to attract private investment. Egypt awarded BP an offshore exploration block in the western Mediterranean's King Mariout Offshore concession.Minister of Finance said that inter-settlement will be allowed between the exporters' taxes due and their balance of export subsidies at the Export Development Fund.Prime Minister issued a decree setting the selling price of natural gas supplied to generate electricity at USD3/MMBtu, for electricity production companies down from USD3.25/MMBtu.EFIH partnered with the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to develop the infrastructure for the digitization of gas stations across Egypt. Ebtikar for Financial Services, a joint venture between MTIE and BINV, postponed its planned EGX listing on challenging market conditions. Vodafone Egypt is close to acquiring an additional 10% stake in each of Bee and Masary.Passenger car sales dropped in May for the third consecutive month by 22% YoY to record 11.8k vehicles after a 9.4% YoY fall in March and 25% YoY fall in April.The government is looking into levying a 5% fee on imported gas operating PCs to promote electric vehicle sales. HELI Board approved the draft contract with Mountain View regarding the co-development of HELI's 1,695 feddan Heliopark land plot. TMGH intends to issue EGP1.2 billion in securitized bonds as part of its EGP6.0 billion securitization program.SPMD recorded a net loss of EGP38.4 million in 1Q22, due to lower Covid-related revenues and drive-through expenses which reached EGP17.2 million though its revenues are diminishing, surge in expenses and Impairment of Inventory as well as provisions. We update our FV to EGP0.56 per share. 

Responding to a petition and also to the worsening air pollution in Delhi, the Supreme Court had in 1998 directed that all the buses, taxis and auto rickshaws will have to switch to CNG.  The apex court had also ordered the setting up of 70 CNG stations to meet with the increased demand. After initial hiccups -- which included a waiting time of over 10 hours at CNG stations-- the national capital finally took the leap of faith. And by 2021, it claimed to have the “cleanest public transportation system”. Apart from the reduced pollution, another big reason for vehicle owners for switching to CNG was the huge difference in operating cost of the vehicle. But, over the years, the gap has narrowed down substantially. On Saturday, the central government slashed central excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and on diesel by Rs 6 a litre, providing much-needed relief to households that have been hit by 8-year high inflation. The same day, Indraprastha Gas, which retails CNG in the national capital and adjoining cities, hiked the fuel's price by Rs 2 per kg to Rs 75.61. This was the 13th increase since March 7. In all, the CNG price has risen by Rs 19.60 per kg or 35% during this period. And in the last one year, prices have increased by Rs 32.21 per kg or 60%, according to data compiled by news agency PTI. IGL Managing Director Sanjay Kumar said the prices are likely to remain elevated in the near future due to high international prices of natural gas. Similarly, Mahanagar Gas which supplies CNG to Mumbai and its suburbs, increased the MRP of CNG by Rs 4 per kg on April 30 to Rs 76 on April 30.  While hiking retail prices, Mahanagar Gas cited historically high cost of regasified LNG which is being blended with domestic gas to offset the shortfall in the availability of domestic gas for CNG and PNG segments.  The company also cited the rise in the prices of locally produced gas. The Centre had raised the price of locally produced gas from old fields for April-September to a record high of $6.1 per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu), an increase of 110% from $2.9/mmBtu. But Mahanagar Gas said that the revised price still offered savings of about 57% and 27% as compared to petrol and diesel respectively at the current price levels in Mumbai. The Maharashtra government had on April 1st reduced the Value Added Tax on CNG from 13.5% to 3% providing relief of 6.00 rupee per kg. But the relief was short. Following the recent fuel price relief, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers said the auto industry is keenly looking forward to similar support on CNG prices in order to help the common man, facilitate public transport and enable a cleaner environment.     For instance, Delhi's public transport, including cabs, autos, taxis and buses, is majorly CNG driven. Around 1 lakh auto rickshaws and a similar number of taxis are currently plying in Delhi, which levies no VAT on CNG.  Various auto-rickshaw, cab and taxi unions have been demanding a hike in fares and slashing of CNG prices to offset the impact of rising fuel prices. Sourav Mitra, Director - Energy, CRISIL, said international gas prices are at very high levels due to the war in Ukraine, adding that domestic prices may go up further in the second half of this fiscal to as much as $8.5/mmBtu. Mitra says the Centre can consider reducing the excise duty on CNG from 14% while states have the option to cut VAT. The industry has been demanding that natural gas be brought under the ambit of GST. And why should consumers expect a breather on the CNG front? According to Sourav Mitra, CNG usage has been growing strongly, even in Tier 2 and 3 cities and any positive direction by govt will encourage use of CNG as a clean fuel. PTI reported in April that the oil ministry has stopped making a fresh allocation of natural gas from domestic fields to the city gas sector, leading to a hike in CNG and piped cooking gas prices to rec

Energy markets saw a big downward correction this week as the Brent crude oil price dropped from $111/bbl to reach $101/bbl. The Henry Hub gas price in the US declined from $7.3/MMBtu down to $6.9/MMBtu. European gas prices remained stable at the $31/MMBtu level. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss why the recent rise in US natural gas price has resulted in little change in the supply and demand balance at the current time. With US natural gas price now above $7/MMBtu and an end-October storage trajectory of 3.4 Tcf, traditional levers of supply increase and demand destruction that would manifest at this price level have been missing. This is particularly true in terms of demand destruction as the US coal balance now appears tighter than the US natural gas balance. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4068518-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

IMF: Egypt is taking several clear and specific steps to restore economic balance, and a program is being prepared that takes into account social protection measures while completing reforms.The government will announce by mid-May the “State Ownership Policy Document,” as the national strategy aimed at expanding private sector participation in the economy. Prime Minister reviewed the proposed strategy to stimulate the Egyptian economy, including proposals to attract foreign direct investment.Suez Canal revenues jumped in March 2022 to USD601.7 million (+36% YoY). Revenues recorded USD1.691 billion in 1Q22 (+20% YoY).The Ministry of Tourism is to study the collection of tourism receipts from Russian tour operators in Rubles during the coming period.Kima budget for FY22/23: Topline is estimated to register EGP4.3 billion compared EGP2.116 billion in 1H21/22. Net profit after tax budget is EGP426 million compared to a net profit of EGP331 million in 1H21/22. Factory will attain 100% utilization rates in urea (Kima 2) with an annual production of 520, 000, with exports at 45%. Natural gas cost is assumed to be USD5.75/MMBtu. EGP98 million in capex. Net financing cost is budgeted at EGP392 million in FY22/23 compared EGP200 million in 1H21/22. Suez Canal Economic Zone signed the agreement with the green fuel alliance to produce 350 thousand tons of renewable fuel at USD3 billion, and with AMEA Power for 390,000 tons of green ammonia a year.IDHC is expected to release 2021 financial results today. We expect net profit to come in at EGP1.39 bn (+135% YoY). IDHC is currently trading at 2022f P/E of 12.3x and EV/EBITDA of 6.3x. The government is studying assigning the management of some public hospitals to the private sector.ESRS and IRAX GAMs approved DPS of EGP0.8/share and EGP60/share for FY2021, implying DYs of 6% and 11.1% respectively. ECAP GAM approved the proposed DPS of EGP0.55 for FY2021, implying a DY of 6.3%. MBSC GAM approved a DPS of EGP2.00for FY2021, implying a DY of 6.9%. MCQE GAM approved a DPS of EGP0.50for FY2021, implying a DY of 3.9%.

Recorded on April 4, 2022 https://youtu.be/UUZ17gIh39I Episode 43 of the PetroNerds podcast is part one of an incredible double header on all things US natural gas, global LNG markets, the European energy crisis, and the impact of regulations on ESG and investor pressure.  Trisha Curtis is joined by her guest Renee Pirrong, Strategy Director at Tellurian.  Tellurian is active in the upstream space in the Haynesville and will soon be exporting LNG (Liquified Natural Gas).  Before recording WTI was $101.80, Brent $106.36, Henry Hub $5.80, and TTF Dutch from CME $36 MMBtu.  Trisha starts off the podcast with a global overview and backdrop of what is happening in the world, including the Biden Administration and IEA's planned release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves from the SPR.  In this episode Trisha and Renee get into US natural gas production volumes, US LNG export volumes, LNG export capacity, and the Biden Administration's plans to increase LNG exports to Europe this year and significantly more through 2030.  Trisha gets into the production base potential and the meaningful impact of market signalling by regulators and the need to build infrastructure and pipelines to accelerate production growth in the US and exports abroad.  They discuss the impacts of ESG investing and money going into renewables vs. oil, natural gas, and coal.  They also begin discussing the energy crisis in Europe and Asia.

Matt and Paul have a meandering conversation with Chris Kroeker from NW Natural about H2's role in the energy transition.04:01 - all the colors of hydrogen17:32 - difference between hydrogen (H2) and renewable natural gas (CH4)21:23 - How much H2 can go in CH4 transmission and distribution lines?26:58 - How much H2 can be used in natural gas power plants?29:35 - H2's role in industrial decarbonization (include paper mills)31:50 - Infrastructure necessary to get H2 to industrial loads (and money from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that may go toward it)36:50 - How much hydrogen infrastructure does a billion dollars get ya!? 39:15 - Is there an inverse heat rate for the electricity to H2 conversion?  55kWh/kg-H2, 1kg-H2 = 135,000 btu  55kWh/135,000btu or 2,454 btu/kWh Inverse heat rate (a.k.a. the Cold Hart Rate) = 1 / 2.454 MMBTU/MWh = 0.4075 MWh/MMBTU Break even price for electrolysis at $30/MWh = 0.4075 MWh/MMBTU * $30/MWh = $12.22/MMBTU I decided to check my concepts against known efficiencies of Proton exchange membrane electrolysis cells 3.4121 MMBTU = 1 MWh Efficiency of electrolysis conversion from MWh to H2, η = ~70% η*3.4121MMBTU/MWh = 2.38847 MMBTU/MWh  Inverse heat rate (a.k.a. the Cold Hart Rate) = 1/2.38847 MMBTU/MWh = 0.4187 MWh/MMBTU  Break even price for electrolysis at $30/MWh = 0.4187 MWh/MMBTU * $30/MWh = $12.56/MMBTU Special thanks to Chris Kroeker and Jonathan Hart for finding mistakes in my initial math. In exchange for Jon's help resolving my error, I will forever refer to this conversion as the “Cold Hart Rate”. I don't know if that was useful, if you have thoughts about the usefulness of an inverse heat rate or better math, let me know.Remember to share this with any friends you have that are electric utility enthusiasts like us!Public Power Underground, for electric utility enthusiasts! Public Power Underground, where you're valued and appreciated.

In the commodities super cycle that has emerged out of the COVID-19 pandemic, few resources have seen as much volatility as liquified natural gas (LNG). From record lows to record highs in less than 18 months, LNG's ups and downs are perhaps rivalled only by crude oil, whose 300% plunge to -$40 a barrel in April 2020 is one for the history books, and one for future economics students to ponder. But unlike oil's flash crash, LNG's roller coaster has been a much more sustained affair, taking it from a pandemic low of $1.85 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in May 2020, to almost $36 mmBtu today - an increase of more than 1,700%. Full transcript here: https://www.tradefinanceglobal.com/posts/video-grappling-with-oversupply-decarbonisation-record-price-volatility-what-does-future-hold-for-lng/

 The government has decided to raise the gas cost for the industrial sector (Steel, Ceramics, Cement, Fertilizers, and Petrochemicals) to USD5.75/MMBtu, except for companies whose cost is calculated based on a formula tied to selling prices. - While the gaps between new FVs and current market prices are not wide, because stocks had initially failed to reflect the profitability spike, the market will definitely not take the news well and stocks will face pressure at the opening. - At current known factors, you are safe with EKHO, MFPC, ECAP, and most cement producers, but more vulnerable with ESRS, ABUK, LCSW, and SVCE. -The only scenario that would save the upside potential for the industrial sector, in general, is that the government would utilize a formula-based gas cost, even if applied with a time lag. Technically, the Fuel Pricing Committee should look into gas costs every quarter. Accordingly, this is not a far-fetched scenario. 

Natural gas storage inventories in the US have crept within 5% of the five-year average and Canada is pushing even higher as the injection season winds down. However, key hubs throughout the US and Canada are reporting prices not maintained since the dawn of the shale revolution due to North America's newfound exposure to global gas market forces. If the US and Canada experience a colder-than-normal winter, and drops inventories below 1 Tcf, pricing analysts expect the benchmark Henry Hub to crack $10/MMBtu, with others across the continent following suit.

-e-finance looking to list two of its subsidiaries (Khales and e-Cards) on EGX; plans to apply for a digital banking license once the CBE issues the executive regulations of the Banking Act; plans to expand into Arab and African countries -ETEL secured a new USD500 mn medium-term syndicated loan for capital expenditure and refinance existing facilities-ADIB obtained regulatory approval to launch its consumer finance arm, ADI-Consumer Finance-The Export Council for Building Materials demands that the price of natural gas be fixed for at least 3 years at the current USD4.50/MMBtu, and renews demands for cement factories to operate with natural gas-Egypt developed a strategic plan for managing water resources until 2037 with an initial estimated cost of USD50 billion-“AlAhly-CIRA," is studying opportunities to acquire universities and schools that provide digital services; negotiating with EBRD to obtain a loan of EGP500 million to establish new university-EFID raised the price of Molto by EGP1.00/pack, and is now selling two ranges of the packaged croissants at EGP3 and EGP4-Car Replacement Initiative reached 33,000 requests-MHOT reported 1Q21/22 net profit before tax of EGP66.0 million-Oaks Hotels will launch its brand in Egypt with the 400-room-Hotel occupancy rate in Marsa Alam reached around 75% this month-AXPH will distribute FY20/21 DPS of EGP10.00, DY of 6.5%-CPCI will distribute FY20/21 DPS of EGP4.00, DY of 10.0%-Egypt to reach fuel self-sufficiency by 2023 as large-scale upgrades to oil refineries and new facilities come online at cost of USD 7 bn-Egypt could receive up to EUR1 bn from the EU over the next six years for socio-economic development

Oil is closing in on $80 as supply fears stoke prices higherhttps://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/brent-oil-nears-80-a-barrel-amid-supply-constraints- what could stem the rising tide of oil prices? Covid lockdowns, Chinese economy?- domestic travel is up, according to airlines- will US production ever come back? perhaps more issues at play than just lack of funding - costs of materials, labor has all gone WAY up.Europe Is Pumping Less Gas as Demand Rebounds, Leaving a Gap Russia Is Fillinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-is-pumping-less-gas-as-demand-revives-leaving-a-gap-russia-is-filling-11632308400- despite Europe's rhetoric about the environment, they really want to do business with Russia- Shutting down major Dutch natural gas field next year because of earthquakes. Instead they are getting it from Russia.Citigroup sees gas at $100/MMBtu, if winter is cold enoughhttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/23/citigroup-sees-gas-at-100mmbtu-if-winter-is-cold-enough- If its too cold in China, what does China do? Let people freeze or power factories?The Climate Case for Property Destructionhttps://newrepublic.com/article/162247/andreas-malm-blow-up-pipeline-climate-direct-action- argues that climate activists should destroy energy infrastructure often enough so that it is too costly for companies to rebuilt and maintain it.- What is the end point? renewable? deindustrialization?Investors Bet Environmental Fears Will Crunch Commodity Supply, Lifting Priceshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-environmental-fears-will-crunch-commodity-supply-lifting-prices-11632350186- pandemic killed investing in oil AND gasChina Needs to Kick its Coal Habit at Home, Toohttps://www.wsj.com/articles/china-needs-to-kick-its-coal-habit-at-home-too-11632477842- Xi says won't finance coal plants abroad (but what about at home?)Power cuts hit homes in north-east Chinahttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58704221As OPEC reopens the taps, African giants losing race to pump morehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-reopens-taps-african-giants-losing-race-pump-more-2021-09-27/- Nigeria and Angola lose a lot of oil to theft! Nigeria was in the top 5 of hot oil being tapped from pipelines. Similar to Pemex and Nigeria

We look at how soaring energy prices in Spain, gas prices in the U.S. and aluminum prices globally could all be linked to coal mines in China.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, I'm Andrew Sheets, chief cross asset strategist for Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats And I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist and head of the European energy team.Andrew Sheets And on this special episode, we'll be talking about how soaring energy prices in Spain, gas prices in the U.S. and aluminum prices globally could all be linked to coal mines in China. It's Friday, September 17th, at 3 p.m. in London.Andrew Sheets So, Martin, there's a pretty striking story going on globally in commodities that's been hitting close to home here in Europe. I think a good place to start is just to run through how much prices for things like coal, natural gas and aluminum have been rising this year.Martijn Rats Thanks, Andrew. The price rally in many of these commodities has been rather extraordinary. The global consumption of coal peaked in 2013. So eight years ago. And yet we're now looking at thermal coal prices that are close to all time highs. At the start of the year, the price of thermal coal in the seaborne market was in the order of $80/ton. Now we're looking at $180/ton. With that also, the price of aluminum has risen very strongly. At the start of the year, we were around about $2000/ton. At the moment we're knocking on nearly $3000/ton. The price of natural gas both in the seaborne market traded as LNG as liquefied natural gas, but also in Europe, delivered through pipelines at several trading hubs where gas is trading. In Europe, we've seen extraordinary rallies. Typical prices have gone from in the order of $6-7 per MMBTU to $22, $23, $24 per MMBTU. And with that, then also electricity prices have increased very sharply. In Germany, in France, Spain, the U.K., electricity prices have broadly tripled from about sort of 50 euros a megawatt hour to about 150 euros per megawatt hour.Andrew Sheets So one of the reasons I was so keen to talk to you today is that this is a really interesting and interlinked story. What's going on?Martijn Rats I think there is a common set of factors between all of these rallies. In China, electricity demand is up, coming out of covid and also because of hot weather. Normally, China produces its majority of its electricity from coal and from hydropower, i.e. dams and rivers. But because of underinvestment and because of drought, both of these source of electricity production have really struggled this year. That meant that China had to curtail aluminum production, which is particularly electricity intensive to make. China is a big producer of aluminum globally, so that made the global aluminum price spike. At the same time, it meant that China had to look for coal in the seaborne market and also for natural gas, which is another fuel you can use for electricity production. That tightens the global market for coal and for natural gas. And then those prices spiked, particularly in Europe, because normally natural gas that is shipped around the world in LNG tankers, a lot of that ends in Europe. But this year, a far lower share of it ended in Europe. That meant that our inventories of natural gas didn't really build over the summer. We're now going into the winter with unusually low levels of natural gas inventories. Natural gas prices in Europe then spiked. And because that sets the price for electricity, then electricity prices also spiked. It's a global story that is very interconnected across regions and across commodities.Andrew Sheets So, Martin, I know this is hard to comment on, but how do you think this resolves itself? And what do you think are the key factors to watch here going forward as we think about these interconnected commodity markets?Martijn Rats Well, I think these rallies and particularly the sharpened sort of nature of them have really driven home three things. First of all, how interconnected the commodity markets really are. You can get, you know, drought in China and electricity prices go up in Spain. It really is that interconnected. I think the second thing that these rallies drive home is how difficult this is to forecast. As in, even three months ago, six months ago, most market participants would not have expected that in particular, commodities would have rallied so much. As we go into the energy transition, we really should use less coal. And therefore, coal markets were by and large expected to be very well supplied. Natural gas has been quite abundant, really on a global basis ever since the emergence of U.S. shale about a decade ago. And that market, too, was widely expected to remain abundant. So to see these types of price rallies really drives home how difficult it is to forecast these rallies. And frankly, for that reason, we should be open minded about, you know, these deeply held consensual views about how all of this is going to play out. The third thing I think that is worth stressing is that these rallies also show how little margin of safety there is in the broader energy system, and particularly as we do go into the energy transition with seemingly little margin of safety, that creates room for instabilities and spikes in the future as well.Andrew Sheets And, Martin, by the energy transition, we're talking here about this idea that we're really going to be moving away from coal based production, fossil fuels, not just because they're worse for the environment, but they're increasingly less economic relative to many of these renewable technologies that are now out there.Martijn Rats Yeah, that is exactly right. You know, to address climate change and to decarbonize, we need to move to more sustainable low carbon sources of energy. But what is currently going on is that this prospect is leading those that typically invest in the traditional fossil fuels to lower their investment levels already well in advance, whilst actually our consumption patterns are changing quite slowly. So there's a real question whether the prospect of the energy transition is impacting the supply side of energy before it impacts really the demand side of energy. And that's that could then be the source of those price squeezes and instabilities that I just mentioned.Andrew Sheets So, Martin, meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices have moved up to some of their highest levels since 2014. Is this related to this story and the other commodities or is something else going on here now?Martijn Rats So far, oil is not quite wrapped up in this story quite as much. Oil still has its own standalone dynamic, more or less. And the reason for that is that have loose connections to each other. But oil is truly global. So the United States has reduced its dependance on imported oil very, very significantly over the years, but still, the American oil market is connected to the global oil market. And in the global oil market, we see recovery in demand. The oil market is simply tight and that is driving U.S. gasoline prices. So the dynamic there is different. But where these stories could converge is in terms of the impact of little investment in the future, because clearly part of the story that I just told about natural gas and coal has an element to it of low investment levels that are now showing their consequences and partly responsible for creating these squeezes. In the oil market, we are also now going through a number of years already with low investment levels. Now, there's still some slack in the system, but what is now happening to coal and natural gas could well happen to oil markets in two, three, four years from now when OPEC's spare capacity has been depleted and demand has recovered. So in that sense, U.S. gasoline prices are a different story, but they could become the same story in a few years from now.Martijn Rats So now, Andrew, I look at it from an energy and commodity perspective, but you take a very much a macro view. What do you make of all of this?Andrew Sheets So I think the irony here is, is that both investors or general people who want to reduce carbon based emissions and the energy companies would both prefer higher energy prices, albeit for maybe different reasons. But higher prices are one mechanism to reduce the amount of consumption of these various fossil fuels and commodities. So there is a free market element here. As these prices go up, people will use less electricity, they will use less natural gas, they will try to they will drive less. And that can have some positive environmental impacts. It can also have some negative economic impacts, as if that if that leads to less activity. If that transition has to happen a lot faster or maybe more uncomfortably than expected. I think the second thing is we do have to be on the lookout for this impact on corporate margins. When it comes to commodities and when it comes to the things you were just discussing, if you produce these things, it can be really good. And if you consume them, it can be really challenging. If prices are going up 50-100%, I don't think many people's budgets or earnings numbers account for that type of fluctuation. So, you know, this is something we're going to be watching very closely as we go into third quarter earnings and fourth quarter earnings. And also, I think investors need to be on the lookout for companies that potentially get squeezed if they are not able to pass on price increases onto the next part of the supply chain, onto their customers. And finally, I think this is a really good reminder that there's, I think, a temptation in markets often to really want to think that politics is this great explainer of everything. And I think this is a good reminder of the limitations of that. I mean, I think if you had told an investor at the start of 2020 that you would have Democratic control of the White House, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and then coal prices would go on and more than double. People would have thought that you were crazy. People would have thought that you didn't know what you were talking about. And yet that's happened. And it's happened because there's a drought in China and there's a lack of coal production for many other unrelated reasons. So I think this is just a good example that any time I think we look at markets with upcoming elections, yes, those can matter and they can matter a lot. But often other factors can also come into play. And we need to be mindful and I think kind of humble to that dynamic.Andrew Sheets Martijn, thanks for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats Great speaking with you, Andrew,Andrew Sheets And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

En este episodio platicamos de inversiones multimillonarias en commodities, sobre disciplina, y sobre triatlones junto a Mauricio, quién es una persona altamente disciplinada y exitosa en varias ramas de su vida.Mauricio es originario de Bogotá, Colombia. Actualmente reside en Houston, Texas, y se dedica a ser portfolio manager, administra el portafolio de un hedge fund, o fondo de cobertura, que en términos sencillos significa que trabaja en una compañía que recibe dinero de inversores calificados por el SCC, Security and Exchange Commission, e invierten ese dinero cobrando un porcentaje de las ganancias, más un cargo por manejar el fondo.El tamaño del fondo que maneja la compañía para la que trabaja es aproximadamente de unos 1.5 billones de dólares entre más o menos 30 personas, y el número de inversionistas también es bastante reducido, con sólo 9 o 10 inversionistas grandes, sean personas de alto capital, o instituciones financieras como, por ejemplo, fondos de pensiones o universidades con su endowment invertido ahí, o fondos grandes, que vienen siendo fondos de inversión que tienen a su cargo bastantes fondos pequeños.Mauricio también nos comentó que el retorno de inversión anual varía, con años en que se ha generado un retorno del 170% o hasta el 300%, pero también años en los que se han perdido el 5%. El promedio suele ser más o menos 25% o 30% de retorno al año.La rama en la que se desempeña Mauricio es la compra de commodities, que bien pueden ser de energía, de agricultura, o de minerales, y que se miden en BTUs o MMBTU. Esto significa que compran en mercados de futuros, que realmente son títulos financieros. Otra de las cosas que le pregunté a Mauricio fue sobre el escándalo de fraude de Enron, compañía en la que trabajó apenas seis meses. Aseguró que existen otros fraudes muchos más grandes, pero que el de Enron fue el más famoso por haber sido uno de los primeros. Desde su punto de vista el problema fue de contabilidad porque algunas de las transacciones que se hicieron no se publicaron abiertamente a los inversionistas, y esto generaba un conflicto de intereses con el gerente financiero de la compañía.Luego hicimos un cambio de tema un poco drástico y platicamos sobre los triatlones, que consisten en tres disciplinas; nadar, bicicleta, y correr. Sobre esto hicimos la observación de que aún con 49 años, teniendo cuatro hijos, tres de ellos trillizos, consigue el tiempo necesario para trabajar, compartir con su familia, andar en bicicleta, correr, entrenar varias horas, e incluso participar en varios Iron Man, que es una carrera de 225 kilómetros entre las tres disciplinas.Opina que el triatlón nunca es aburrido porque siempre hay un área que se puede mejorar, sea corriendo, en la bicicleta, o nadando. Por ejemplo, en la natación se puede mejorar la técnica o cómo respiras, en la bicicleta puedes mejorar la posición aerodinámica o puedes cambiar la bicicleta, y corriendo también se puede mejorar. De hecho, desde su punto de vista correr es la parte más difícil, ya que si no corres bien te puedes lesionar, y si te lesionas se acabó.Por último, le pregunté a Mauricio qué consejo de vida o de negocios le daría a su yo de 25 años, a lo que respondió que hay que estar seguro y confiado de que las cosas van a estar bien, tener una mentalidad optimista y de hacer las cosas bien. A esa edad uno está muy nervioso e inseguro a pesar de que no hay nada más que se pueda hacer. Para él hay que vivir contento y vivir satisfecho, porque el nerviosismo y la preocupación en exceso no sirve para nada. Si se presenta una oportunidad, hay que aprovecharla.Mauricio no tiene redes sociales y se mantiene bastante privado en este sentido.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) produced from diverted landfill waste is now flowing into SoCalGas' pipeline system from Anaergia's Rialto Bioenergy Facility. A new one-mile pipeline connects the facility to an existing SoCalGas pipeline. Using Anaergia's advanced anaerobic digestion technology and proprietary systems, the Facility will produce up to 985,000 MMBTU/year of RNG each year using up to 300,000 tons of waste diverted from local landfills. Creating this carbon-negative fuel from waste will reduce landfilling and decrease greenhouse gas emissions by up to 220,000 metric tons per year—an amount equal to removing 47,500 passenger cars from the road. Tune in and learn more about the technology that makes this possible!

Renewable natural gas (RNG) produced from diverted landfill waste is now flowing into SoCalGas’ pipeline system from Anaergia’s Rialto Bioenergy Facility. A new one-mile pipeline connects the facility to an existing SoCalGas pipeline. Using Anaergia’s advanced anaerobic digestion technology and proprietary systems, the Facility will produce up to 985,000 MMBTU/year of RNG each year using up to 300,000 tons of waste diverted from local landfills. Creating this carbon-negative fuel from waste will reduce landfilling and decrease greenhouse gas emissions by up to 220,000 metric tons per year—an amount equal to removing 47,500 passenger cars from the road. Tune in and learn more about the technology that makes this possible!

Gevo Inc (NASDAQ:GEVO) CEO Patrick Gruber tells Proactive the group has closed a $68,155,000 “Green Bond” private activity bonds offering to finance the construction of its renewable natural gas (RNG) project in Northwest Iowa. Gruber says the project will generate RNG captured from dairy cow manure, or what's called feedstock. The feedstock for the RNG project will be supplied by three dairy farms in northwest Iowa involving over 20,000 milking cows. When fully operational, the RNG project is expected to generate about 355,000 MMBtu of RNG per year.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) produced from diverted landfill waste is now flowing into SoCalGas' pipeline system from Anaergia's Rialto Bioenergy Facility. A new one-mile pipeline connects the facility to an existing SoCalGas pipeline. Using Anaergia's advanced anaerobic digestion technology and proprietary systems, the Facility will produce up to 985,000 MMBTU/year of RNG each year using up to 300,000 tons of waste diverted from local landfills. Creating this carbon-negative fuel from waste will reduce landfilling and decrease greenhouse gas emissions by up to 220,000 metric tons per year—an amount equal to removing 47,500 passenger cars from the road. Tune in and learn more about the technology that makes this possible!

Renewable natural gas (RNG) produced from diverted landfill waste is now flowing into SoCalGas’ pipeline system from Anaergia’s Rialto Bioenergy Facility. A new one-mile pipeline connects the facility to an existing SoCalGas pipeline. Using Anaergia’s advanced anaerobic digestion technology and proprietary systems, the Facility will produce up to 985,000 MMBTU/year of RNG each year using up to 300,000 tons of waste diverted from local landfills. Creating this carbon-negative fuel from waste will reduce landfilling and decrease greenhouse gas emissions by up to 220,000 metric tons per year—an amount equal to removing 47,500 passenger cars from the road. Tune in and learn more about the technology that makes this possible!

Ira Joseph, head of gas and power for S&P Global Platts Analytics, and Ryan Ouwerkerk, manager of Americas natural gas pricing for S&P Global Platts, are back with their first podcast of 2021 to discuss the remarkable price and market movements that have ushered in 2021, stretching from the historic drivers of JKM to $20/MMBtu to the trickle-down impact the surge has had on European and US markets.

· The six major US LNG terminals reported a utilisation rate of 40% in late June as the marginal LNG supply source adjusts to lower gas prices. Since April, when the market impact from the virus began to take shape, ~130 cargoes have been cancelled for loading in the US. · US LNG cargo cancellations for August currently estimated at 40-45 (similar to July levels). More than half of the cancelled US cargo loadings for August are tied to Cheniere's Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana (16 – 23 cargoes) and Corpus Christi terminal in Texas. The Gulf Coast Marker (GCM) to Henry Hub spread has been negative since the end of March and has reached differentials as wide as negative US$0.7/MMBtu, implying very negative export economics. · Gas prices in the US are likely to come under further pressure this summer as US natural gas production has recovered this month – partly to do with the resilience of dry gas plays and reflecting reversal of US oil field shut-ins at wet gas plays. Production is recovering at a time of weak domestic demand, limited export availability to exports as well as lower feedgas deliveries to US LNG export facilities (down 38% compared to May levels). · In Europe, gas storage capacity has reached 77% by late-June compared with the five-year average of 53% for the same period. Storage is expected to be full by August and is likely to place further pressure on gas prices over the next few months until demand picks up.