Podcast appearances and mentions of dallas fed

This week we talk about money policies, yield curves, and government bonds.We also discuss the Fed, the Treasury Department, and a WWII accord between them.Recommended Book: Paved Paradise by Henry GrabarTranscriptIn April of 1942, a few months after the United States entered World War 2, the US Treasury Department asked the Federal Reserve to help it borrow a truly staggering amount of money, and as cheaply as possible. The Fed agreed, committing itself to holding short-term Treasury bill rates at three-eighths of 1%, while also capping the yield on long-term government bonds at 2.5%.This was a type of yield curve control. Rather than allowing the market to decide how much interest the government would pay, the Fed decided that price and promised to enforce it.That helped finance the war, because the Treasury knew its borrowing costs wouldn't spiral out of control at a moment when it needed to spend unprecedented sums on ships, planes, weapons, soldiers, and all the other machinery of an ongoing global conflict.The downside was that the Fed lost control of an important monetary policy lever.Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so keeping yields below a certain level meant the Fed had to stand ready to buy bonds whenever their prices dropped. It couldn't decide in advance how many it would buy, or how much money it would create in the process. The market would thus forth decide that, instead.Consequently, the Fed became, in some ways, an extension of the Treasury's debt-management operation, its inflation-related responsibilities made secondary to the government's need for cheap financing.That arrangement persisted after the war ended, despite the return of inflation, and President Harry Truman's administration pushed to maintain it during the Korean War, as well.Fed officials resisted, though, with inflation running at more than 8%, and after a very public, very contentious standoff, on March 4, 1951, the Treasury and the Fed announced that they had reached what became known as the Treasury-Fed Accord.That agreement did not make the Fed independent all at once, but it established the principle underlying the modern relationship between these institutions: the Treasury manages government borrowing, while the Fed sets monetary policy based on inflation and employment, not on how much that policy costs the government.The market, in other words, would once again be allowed to decide the price of long-term US debt.What I'd like to talk about today is what happens when that price goes up, what's pushing long-term US borrowing costs toward levels we haven't seen in decades, and why two people appointed by the same president are pulling in opposite directions on this issue.—The Federal Reserve's primary interest-rate lever is the federal funds rate, which is the overnight rate banks charge each other to borrow money. The Fed currently targets a range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent for that rate, and while it has other tools, this is the number people are usually talking about when they say the Fed raised, cut, or held rates.The Fed does not directly set the yield on 10- or 30-year Treasuries, though.Those securities are sold at auction and then traded in a huge secondary market, and their yields reflect a combination of what investors expect inflation to look like, where they think short-term rates will go over the life of the bond, and what's called the term premium.The term premium is basically extra compensation for uncertainty. If you lock up your money for 30 years instead of rolling over short-term debt, you accept the risk that inflation, growth, government policy, and other variables will change in ways that make your bond less valuable over that thirty year period. The more uncertain the future seems, the more compensation you're likely to demand.And again, when demand for a bond falls, its price falls and its yield rises. When we say yields are rising, that means borrowers have to offer investors, the people and institutions giving them the money they want to borrow, more money, more interest, to convince them to buy those bonds.That doesn't only affect the government. The 10-year Treasury serves as something like a reference rate for the entire economy, influencing mortgages, business loans, and the value of long-lived assets.As of September 3 of 2026, the average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.71%, up from 6.5% a year earlier. That increase is the result of yield increases in the bond market.Long-term Treasury yields have been climbing for much of 2026, and that climb accelerated over the summer.The 30-year yield reached about 5.31 percent on August 17, its highest level since 2007. A few days earlier, the Treasury sold 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.216%, the highest borrowing cost at one of those auctions since 2001.The 10-year yield briefly hit about 4.81% this past week, its highest level since early 2025, and ended Friday at about 4.78%. The two-year yield, which tends to track expectations about contemporary Fed policy more closely, ended at about 4.37%.There isn't one clean cut reason for these yield bumps. Instead, there are a bunch of forces pushing in roughly the same direction.The first is government borrowing. The Congressional Budget Office now expects a roughly 2.1 trillion dollar federal deficit this fiscal year, which is 200 billion dollars more than it projected in February. Covering that gap means issuing more debt, and more supply generally means the Treasury has to offer a better return to attract enough buyers.The second is competition from corporations, especially technology companies borrowing to build AI infrastructure and data centers.The Dallas Fed estimates that AI-related investment-grade bond issuance—these companies borrowing money, in the form of bonds, to help build more data centers and other AI-enabling stuff—could total around $300 billion this year, creating long-duration debt equivalent to about an eighth of what the Treasury is expected to issue. Some of the companies selling this debt have extremely strong balance sheets and high credit ratings, so investors who want safe-ish, long-term bonds suddenly have a lot more options, and the US government has to compete with that for a finite pool of investor resources.Third, oil prices have surged following renewed strikes and attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, with US benchmark prices recently climbing above $90 a barrel. More expensive energy can goose inflation across the economy, which makes locking in a fixed return for 10 or 30 years less appealing, because those yields might not keep up with the practical devaluation of the dollar.Fourth, that aforementioned term premium has risen as investors ask to be paid more for uncertainty related to inflation, deficits, geopolitics, and future Treasury issuance.And fifth, the pool of buyers is changing. Foreign investors still own trillions of dollars in Treasuries, but private foreign demand for notes and bonds fell sharply in June, even as corporate bonds attracted more of that finite sum of money.A big shift we seem to be seeing here is that some investors seem to be judging Treasuries less as a bet on the next Fed meeting, and more as a long-term bet on whether the US political system can manage its finances. And that shift is showing up at an awkward moment for the two institutions involved in the 1951 Accord.Kevin Warsh, who became Fed chair in May, used his August 28 speech at Jackson Hole to say that although inflation expectations remain anchored, the Fed still has work to do if underlying inflation is not moving toward its target quickly enough.Markets read that as a warning that a rate hike could be coming, and the unexpectedly strong August jobs report reinforced that interpretation: employers added 162,000 jobs, far more than economists anticipated, while estimates for June and July were revised upward.The Treasury Department, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction.On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government would at least double the size of its long-term bond buybacks, from a maximum of 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars per operation, beginning September 9 and continuing through November 4.The stated purpose is to improve liquidity, buying older, less frequently traded 10- to 30-year securities. But buying long-term bonds also reduces the supply available to investors, boosting prices and putting downward pressure on yields, which is why Bessent has referred to the approach as a “Treasury twist.”The scale is small in the context of a $40 trillion national debt, and analysts have described it as more signal than substance. It is nonetheless a striking signal: one Trump appointee is telling markets that higher short-term rates may be necessary to control inflation, while another is using the Treasury's balance sheet to push long-term rates in the other direction.These jobs, which again, were separated in 1951, are working against each other. And this matters, first, because long-term government debt is the foundation upon which a lot of other prices are built.When a 30-year Treasury yields more than 5%, companies refinancing debt have to pay more, commercial real estate becomes harder to finance, mortgages become more expensive, and investors have less reason to pay extremely high prices for stocks based on profits those companies might earn many years from now.It also matters because interest on the federal debt has become one of the government's largest expenses. Gross interest expense reached about $1.17 trillion during the first ten months of fiscal 2026, up about 15% from the same period last year. The somewhat narrower CBO measure of net interest reached $963 billion over that span, roughly level with Medicare spending and greater than defense spending.This creates a potentially self-reinforcing loop: higher yields increase the cost of servicing the debt, higher interest costs expand the deficit, larger deficits require more borrowing, and more borrowing can put further upward pressure on yields.Economists use the term fiscal dominance to describe the point at which government financing needs start to constrain monetary policy, pushing the central bank to keep rates lower than it otherwise would, or to buy government debt, even if doing so undermines its effort to control inflation.The US is not necessarily at that point, but this is exactly the kind of pressure the 1951 Accord was meant to prevent.As with everything government money-related, there's also a global dimension to this shift.For decades, Japanese banks, insurers, pension funds, and other institutions bought foreign bonds in part because yields at home were so low. On September 1, though, Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3% for the first time since 1996.Japan's government has more debt relative to the size of its economy than any other wealthy country, and it assumed a 3% long-term rate when calculating debt-service costs for its current budget. Rising above that level would strain its finances, but those higher yields also give Japanese investors more reason to keep their money at home.That doesn't mean Japanese institutions will dump all their Treasuries. Currency-hedging costs and the specific needs of different investors complicate that calculation. But when a major source of relatively steady demand becomes more price-sensitive, the marginal buyer of US debt has to be paid more to invest.Finally, the Treasury market itself has become somewhat more fragile.The amount of debt in circulation has grown far faster than the balance sheets of the dealers that traditionally absorb buying and selling. Hedge funds have filled some of that gap using highly leveraged strategies, including something called the cash-futures basis trade.Fed researchers estimate that these positions reached about $830 billion by September 2025, representing 35% of hedge funds' long Treasury exposure. These trades can provide useful liquidity when markets are calm, but because they rely on enormous amounts of borrowed money to capture tiny price differences, they can also unwind pretty quickly when volatility spikes.That sort of unwind contributed to the Treasury-market seizure in March of 2020, and a different leveraged hedge-fund strategy added to turbulence in April of 2025.The assets treated as the world's safest and most liquid can still become difficult to sell when everyone needs cash at the same time, in other words.The next few weeks should partially clarify what's actually driving this unusual market.The expanded Treasury buybacks begin the day after this episode goes live, September 9. Producer-price inflation data arrives on September 10, consumer-price data on September 11, and the Fed meets on September 15 and 16. The Bank of Japan follows on September 17 and 18, when it may increase its policy rate from 1% to around 1.25%.If the Fed hikes and long-term yields fall, that could indicate investors view the move as credible inflation-fighting: short-term borrowing becomes more expensive, but the term premium shrinks because the distant future seems less inflationary.If the Fed holds after a soft inflation report and short-term yields fall while the 30-year barely moves, that would suggest the long end is being driven by deficits, debt supply, oil prices, corporate competition, and global demand more than Fed policy.And if the buybacks begin but long-term yields continue to climb, that would demonstrate the limits of debt-management policy in a market this large. The Treasury could respond by issuing more short-term and less long-term debt, reducing immediate borrowing costs, though that would also mean refinancing more frequently and taking on the risk that rates remain high.It could also draw down some of the around $950 billion in its account at the Fed to fund larger buybacks, but that cash also serves as a buffer against the debt ceiling, which the government is currently expected to reach sometime in 2027. Spending the buffer now would mean rebuilding it later, and rebuilding it would require issuing even more debt.Back in 1951, the Treasury and the Fed reached an agreement that the central bank should not be required to make government borrowing cheap, and that the price of long-term debt should be allowed to reflect what the market believed that debt was worth.Right now, the market is rendering its verdict, and that verdict is that lending the United States money for 30 years has become substantially more expensive. Now we wait to see what Washington decides to do about it.Show Noteshttps://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/treasury-fed-accordhttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-the-treasury-fed-accord-of-1951-and-why-is-it-important/https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/three-factor-nominal-term-structure-model.htmhttps://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttps://www.cbo.gov/publication/61983https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/interest-expense-on-the-public-debt-outstanding/interest-expense-on-the-public-debt-outstandinghttps://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-pennyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0210-searls-aifinancinghttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0606https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htmhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htmhttps://apnews.com/article/1af16359af43eb8abc66445465f633c8https://apnews.com/article/775d7cf741349c7c8e689c0beb57f074https://apnews.com/article/a27a8d3651ff810b25c610d3e1b6259dhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/decomposing-hedge-funds-u-s-treasury-exposures-20260622.htmlhttps://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2026/03/safeguarding-the-treasury-market-jeremy-steinhttps://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/japans-benchmark-bond-yield-rises-to-3-for-first-time-in-30-years-4883532https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htmhttps://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/when-will-we-reach-the-debt-limit-again/https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding/most-recent-quarterly-refunding-documents/https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htmhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htmhttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-a975877a-ddce-4ea0-a735-4b460d37af90.htmlhttps://www.ft.com/content/c96c25c1-b27c-4c08-a2ba-21821b39dd78https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/rates-treasury-borrowing-bessent This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: The City of Abilene is awash in new money but still plans to hit residents with a property tax increase! Where is the morality, or ethics, in that? City of Abilene proposes property tax increase on residents What is the City of Abilene doing with the data center windfall from sales, property taxes? – from June. Abilene leads Texas in hotel revenue growth for 6 quarters Data center boom boosts Abilene venue tax revenue Lubbock County commissioners still plan to save residents from a property tax increase but the county auditor and the county judge are kicking and screaming for a tax increase so they can continue to grow the local bureaucracy.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report says the Texas Service Sector “expanded in August” but its headline downplays it with “moderates.” You know it's near election time because WFAA tried to play it down more with this headline: Is the Texas economy slowing down? What new Dallas Fed data reveals for local workers and consumers. Meanwhile: Manufacturing Boom: Factory Job Openings Soar To Three Year High.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates. www.PrattonTexas.com

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news bond yields worldwide climbing as rising oil prices are raising inflation concerns. Financial markets have raised the chance of widespread interest-rate hikes. US Treasury 10 year yields hit 2025 highs at 4.8%, while Japan's equivalent rate hit 3% for the first time since 1996. German bund yields climbed to 15-year highs and UK gilt yields to 18-year highs. Not helping are a new round of attacks by a trigger-happy US on Iran. But first, there was a full dairy auction overnight and the overall results were modestly positive. Prices in USD were up +0.9% and up +0.6% in NZD. The big mover down was cheddar cheese suffering a -6.6% fall. The big mover up was SMP with a +5.3% gain. WMP was very little-changed. In fact, SMP prices are now higher that WMP prices, the first time like this since July 2022. In between, the WMP premium actually got as high as +US$1550/tonne. In the US, there were two factory PMIs out for August, both essentially holding a moderate expansion there. The widely-watched ISM one came in fractionally lower than for August, with new orders growing at a slightly slower rate and price pressure little-changed. The internationally benchmarked S&P Global one was little changed, noting output and orders both rising at slower rates, with stock building efforts continuing amid supply issues and higher prices. The US Logistics Managers' Index fell for a second consecutive month due to a slowdown in inventory expansion, while logistics costs continued to rise at a high pace. July JOLTS data shows job openings rising while quits fell, but these changes were actually quite minor. The US RCM/TIPP optimism index is still in an easing trend that started in early 2025, but it has held at a modest level in August, similar to the June and July levels. There were offsetting shifts with greater confidence among investors and higher-income households, but a deterioration in sentiment for non-investors and lower-income households. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector activity moderated in August, but is still expanding. The Canadian factory PMI was little changed where their expansion was maintained at solid rate with output, new orders and employment all rising in August. Japanese consumer sentiment rose again in August, something it has been doing consistently since April. As we suspected, the private China factory PMI by S&PGlobal (Rating Dog) came in much more positively that the official version, and expanded at a rate that beat estimates, even if it is modest. How sustainable that improvement is will be interesting to see because input price inflation rose but output prices fell for first time in 2026 so far. And we should probably note that China's government debt is now at ¥100 tln for the first time (NZ$25.3 tln),107% of their GDP. And that is just their central government. (But to be fair, a notable part of that rise involves a shift from old opaque local government debt to a more transparent national treatment.) While that may seem high (and it is), the equivalent US federal debt level is 124% of their GDP. For New Zealand it is 49%, for Australia 34%. EU CPI inflation came in at 3.3% in August, the expected level, but up from 2.9% in July. All this rise was fuel cost related. Their core CPI rate actually dipped slightly to 2.4%. Meanwhile, German retail sales actually fell, and quite hard, down -2.5% in real terms in July from a year ago with the current month drop an outsized -3.4%, so the recent bite has been aggressive. In nominal terms there year-on-year levels are just level-pegging. Australian building consents were expected to fall in July and they did, and by about the expected amount, down -3.6% from June to remain up +9.0% from a year ago. House consents fell -4.2% but multiunit consents held little-changed (-0.4%). Still, that leaves the multiunit sector up almost +20% from a year ago. (Some of those are likely to have been Bathla developments in Western Sydney, so are unlikely to proceed now.) The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.80%, up another +4 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold is now at US$4335/oz, and down -US$97 from yesterday at this time. Silver has fallen -US$1.50 to just under US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$4.50 at just over US$90/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just under US$94.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at just on 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.4, down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,297 and down -2.0% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/-1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Little Jimmy “The Creep” Talarico is an amalgam of most every confused social spasm of our nation's unmoored youth and stuck-in-adolescence adult population since the years that brought the fully anti-American deconstructionist Obama movement to the forefront.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed survey shows Texas' manufacturing sector “accelerates” in August.Governor Abbott jumps on the anti-Flock spy camera bandwagon. Welcome, even if it is much later than it should have been.Attorney General Ken Paxton Supports Pause of 765-kV Transmission Line Buildout Pending Legislative ReviewListen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news renewed fighting in the Persian Gulf from Trump's 'forever wars' is pushing oil prices up again and sentiment lower on the impending new shot inflation will get. So, the yield on the US 10-yr Treasuries rose again now to 4.76%, its highest since January 2025. with market bets rising for a US Fed rate hike later this month. But all the US news isn't downbeat. A surge in new orders has accelerated the Dallas Fed factory survey up sharply to its most positive level since January 2025 which was its best since the pandemic recovery, even it that was an isolated event. Price pressures were stable but markedly elevated, rising further for prices paid but easing slightly for prices received. Across the Pacific, and after the unexpected fall in June, Japanese retail sales surged back in July to be +4.4% higher than year-ago levels and restoring the strong gains they have been posting since March. In China, their factory PMIs for August improved marginally as expected but not by quite enough to avoid another contraction. Meanwhile their service sector PMIs were also expected to improve, but they didn't, staying with the same contraction they recorded officially in July. We need to note that these official surveys have been running more conservative than the private S&P Global alternatives recently. The S&P Global version is due out tomorrow for the factory sector, and on Thursday for the services sector. India said its Q2-2026 economic activity expanded +7.8% from a year ago, the same as in Q1-2026 and much better than was expected (+7.1%). Germany said it's consumer price inflation rate edged up to 2.9% in August, its highest since April, but below market expectations of 3.0%. In August fuel costs rose more than +10% but food was up only +0.1% from a year ago. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's survey shows inflation expectations rose by 0.2 percentage points in August to 4.9%. This follows from a three-month period of moderating inflation expectations. Wage expectations also rose in August, after remaining static for a prolonged period. And staying in Australia, Cotality reported that house prices fell -0.9% in August from July, following a -1.2% decline in July. Overall, house prices are now -3.6% below their peak, although still +2.7% higher than a year earlier. The housing downturn has now spread across more capital cities and regional centers, and further policy tightening by the RBA points to tougher conditions ahead. Sydney and Melbourne again led the declines, falling -4.6% and -4.7%, respectively from this time last year, the only capital cities to now be lower on an annual basis. And of course, this comes at the same time NSW Bathla has essentially collapsed, waiting to see it it can get some lifeline loans to finish some in-progress developments. But essentially it is kaput. There is a pre-insolvency scramble underway over the dying carcass. And staying in NSW, they have had their warmest winter in more than 150 year of records. Now the whole east coast is getting ready for a sizzling summer, as strong as Europe is having. Essentially there was no ski season at Threadbo this year, for the first time ever. New Zealand should prepare for an influx of climate refugees. More generally, international air cargo volumes were up +4.7% in July from a year ago, up +5.2% in the Asia Pacific region. Interestingly, air cargo volumes into the giant US market were up more than +7%, but they shrank around their domestic market. Meanwhile international passenger travel actually fell in July, not by a lot to be sure, but a fall is unusual. Both Middle East and US travel shrank. International travel in the Asia Pacific region declined too even if not so pronounced. Australian domestic travel shrank in a similar manner. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.76%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time, down -2 bps for the week. The 30 year yield is at 5.25%, also up +4 bps and almost back to its October 2023 levels again. The price of gold is now at US$4432/oz, and down -US$22 from yesterday at this time. Silver has held at just over US$66/oz. Oil prices are up +US$2 at just over US$85.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just on US$90.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7, up less than +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,879 and down a very minor -0.2% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Dallas Fed warns tokenized deposits could strip $700B from U.S. banks' lending capacity. Two Dallas Fed economists estimate tokenized deposits could strip about $700 billion from U.S. banks' capacity to fund long-term loans, as instant settlement makes it easier for depositors to chase yield and switch banks. The report warns that could push up the cost of credit for consumers and businesses. CoinDesk's Uyen Truong hosts "CoinDesk Daily." - This episode is brought to you by RealFi, a smarter stablecoin, backed by real-world assets. Find out more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ realfi.co⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. - This episode was hosted by Uyen Truong. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.

The latest developments surrounding hedge fund Situational Awareness and what they could mean for AI investors. And we break down earnings from Apple and Amazon, highlighting the biggest takeaways for Big Tech, capex outlook, and the next phase of the AI trade. Plus, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her dissent from the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision, offering insight into the debate over the path of interest rates. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's clear need for less oil has pushed its price sharply lower even as both the Gulf of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain effectively shut. As other sources raise their output, global demand is being undermined, essentially by this Chinese transition. But first up today, we should note the overnight dairy Pulse auction. Prices achieved were a bit more than -1% lower than the prior week's full auction in USD, but a bit less than that in NZD. In the US, the ADP weekly private payrolls monitoring recorded another easing, only +15,000 and extending the easing trend that has been in place since early May. The US merchandise trade deficit came in more than -US$100 bln in June, a second straight month of an unusually high negative level. Year-on-year, exports were up, but imports rose faster. Meanwhile both their retail (+3.1%) and wholesale inventories (+4.1%) rose in June, reflecting the stockpiling trend that has been in place for a while now. The expected improvement in the Richmond Fed factory survey didn't eventuate in July from June, but it remains modestly positive. New order flows edged lower while price and cost levels remained elevated. But there was a solid improvement in the Dallas Fed services sector recorded in their July survey. Nationally, the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey in the US took a step lower in July. This extends its falling trajectory that started in early 2025. The auction for the US Treasury 7yr Note was well supported earlier today but again, investors are getting higher yields for the elevated risk they perceive. This latest one delivered a median yield of 4.41% (high of 4.47%) compared to 4.20% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Japan, a major 7.1 earthquake in the south has caused widespread damage and deaths. And Japan's parliament has approved a plan to create a "second capital" capable of keeping the country running if disaster strikes Tokyo. It is likely to be in Osaka. Malaysia said producer prices there were +9.2% higher in June than a year ago. This was an unexpected jump from the anticipated +7.7% which was similar to the May rise. Staying in the region, Singapore reported its birth rate for 2025 and for the first time since its independence, it has fallen below +30,000 in a year. It, like many places, is on a steep trajectory of lower fertility. Industrial production in India rose +7.3% in June from a year ago, more than expected and the sharpest pace of expansion in nearly two years. It seems to be bouncing back from the initial shocks from the Middle East conflict. Later today, we will be getting the June CPI result from Australia and a no-change 4.0% rate is anticipated. But yesterday Governor Michelle Bullock was out speaking and affirming that they are worried that these high levels are embedding, so their 1-3% target range is not likely in the medium term. Some are wondering if this was a signal that an unexpected hike is about to be delivered next week. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4030/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$57/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen another -US$3.50 from yesterday at now just over US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl and down -US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 3 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and three entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,568 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz as the US backs away, unable to exert the pressure it thought it could. The pause in fighting there has calmed markets significantly even if few ships are actually transiting. Elsewhere, the US durable goods order report for June was a strong one, up +8.9% from the same month a year ago, but only up +0.3% from May, so most of the gain was in prior months and the June rise was much less than the expected +2.5%. Capital goods were up +4.1% from a year ago, but excluding defense and aircraft, they were up a good +14%. The Dallas Fed regional factory survey was positive too, even if only marginally. That completes seven consecutive months of only marginal changes, some up, some down. Price and wage pressures remained markedly elevated, they said. There were two large US Treasury bond auctions overnight, both well supported. But both saw sharpish rises in yields from the prior equivalent events a month ago. The two year median yield rose +13 bps, and the five year yield rose +21 bps on the same basis. In Canada, their central bank surveys market participants quarterly and these professionals were less upbeat than at the previous survey. They foresaw no policy rate changes in 2026, but rises in the next two years. They also foresee a 25% chance of recession, although more likely growth in the 1-2% range. This is lower than in the prior survey. Trump's trade tensions are the main risk they see. Singapore has surprised markets with another tightening move, its second consecutive such shift. Singapore regulates its monetary policy via its exchange rate (the S$NEER). It is raising its exchange rate to dampen inflationary pressures. The June CPI inflation rate there rose to 1.9%, its highest since August 2024. Singapore's industrial production growth came in less than expected in June, up +7.2% from a year ago when a +9% rise was expected, down from the almost +18% in May. China reported strong industrial profit growth in June, up +15% from the same month a year ago although this was less than the claimed +18% growth rate for the first half of 2026. They say their factory sector profits rose more than 20% on the year-to-date basis, but companies producing electricity saw theirs fall more than -4%. Local listed companies did well, but foreign companies hardly made any gains. Local private companies came in in-between. Expectations are rising that the current CCP summit in Beijing will deliver new stimulus programs. The Indonesian central bank chief has been pushed out with two years left on his term. The Indonesian government wasn't happy with the standard approach of the experienced governor, and wanted the central bank to support it's all-out drive for economic growth rather than inflation control. It was a sudden change, but one preceded by the President appointing a family member as a deputy governor earlier in the year (remember Turkey?). Indonesia has been suffering a weak currency due to the political interference. In Europe, Spain, France and Italy are all battling out-of-control wildfires. Everywhere is battling intense heat. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4078/oz, up +US$26 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$58.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen sharply and by US$8 from yesterday at now just over US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89.50/bbl and down -US$9. Hormuz transits are still basically halted There have been 3 crude tankers and only 2 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and two entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is only marginally more active. The IEA has been reviewing why oil markets have proven more resilient through the current crisis than some had feared and they point out that oil output in countries not directly affected by the Persian Gulf troubles has risen notably and most countries are permitting export flows. They also point o the major release of strategic reserves to cushion the shocks, with 290 mln barrels released so far with more than 1 bln still in reserve. But they note that markets for refined products are considerably tighter than for crude oil. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,917 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Ryan Wiggins, host of Wiggins America, joins Marc and Kim in-studio to unpack a bombshell Dallas Fed report tying the 2021-2024 illegal immigration surge directly to America's affordability crisis. Wiggins breaks down the numbers: every 1% rise in illegal immigration drove a 2.2% jump in home prices and 20% of nationwide rent growth, while wages stagnated as workers competed for the same jobs. Drawing on his own real estate experience, Wiggins explains how illegal immigrants routinely bypass legal barriers to buying and renting homes, leaving landlords and sellers with no way to ask the questions that could stop it. Marc and Ryan connect the dots to the Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling and argue Congress — not the courts — bears responsibility for fixing a crisis Democrats caused on purpose. Basic economics, real consequences, and no spin — that's The Marc Cox Morning Show. Stick around, Ryan is back after the break. Hashtags: #MarcCoxMorningShow #TheMarcCoxMorningShow #RyanWiggins #IllegalImmigration #HousingCrisis #Affordability #BidenPolicies #BorderSecurity #BirthrightCitizenship #DallasFed #STLNews #ConservativeValues

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Persian Gulf situation is settling into a chronic stalemate after the acute hot conflict. US allies in the region are confused, Qatar's role in negotiations is questioned as to whether it can actually do anything, and Iran and Oman are moving forward with their plans for 'fees' and 'management' of the waterway. The US is getting sidelined. One outcome seems clear however; Chinese EV's are dominating world car sales so demand for crude oil is likely to be much less in the future, and that will limit oil price pressures. But first today, there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight, bringing lower prices again. AMF fell -2.5% from last week's event, butter was down -0.5%, SMP was down a chunky -6.2% and WMP slipped -0.6%. These build on trends we have seen since mid-May and given the rise in global milk production by the main exporters (New Zealand included), it is a trend likely to continue for a while yet. In the US, labour market data for May about job openings was little-changed from April even if it still is near a two year high, which was slightly better than was expected. But the June PMI report for the important Chicago manufacturing hub was quite a bit weaker than for May and what was expected. But it is only back to February levels which isn't bad at all. It was a fall away in new orders that drove the easing. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed's regional services survey became positive - just - for the first time in five months. They reported that selling price pressures increased slightly, while input price and wage pressures grew at a faster pace. The Conference Board sentiment survey barely moved in June from May, which actually was a result that disappointed analysts because a more marked improvement was anticipated. And that was because respondents turned negative about job prospects, with almost a quarter of them unexpectedly saying jobs are 'hard to get', the highest level sine early 2021. And we should perhaps note that the deadly screwworm cattle disease is still spreading in Texas and New Mexico, spreading to other animals too. Even though the number of animals reported as having contracted the disease remains small, the risks to cattle herds in these states in very large. In Canada, the expectation that it was falling into recession has proven not to be the case. Canada's GDP rebounded from a first-quarter contraction to record a +0.5% monthly gain in April making this their largest economic expansion in nine months. Their May estimate points to a further if minor + 0.1% growth. Across the Pacific in Japan, the yen slipped into the 162-per-US dollar range yesterday for the first time in 39 years,and extending a slide that has accelerated in the past few months. A two month intervention effort isn't working, raising fresh questions about what is driving the yen's renewed weakness. China's official PMIs posted some marginal improvements in June, actually very marginal but at least they are not contracting. Their factory PMI is expanding, just. New orders picked up slightly. And their services PMI is now not contracting. But it isn't expanding either. New orders in this version are still negative, but the overall index was bolstered by expectations for improvement and lower lead times. All other more direct elements are negative to some degree. We should note that the unofficial PMIs by S&P Global/RatingDog have tended to be more expansionary in 2026. These unofficial results will come later today (Wednesday) and Friday. German inflation came in at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, 2.9% in April, and softer than anticipated, mainly because energy prices retreated there. Back in the US, Rocket Lab has agreed to buy Iridium Communications, a pioneer in satellite telephones, in a broadening attempt to compete with Starlink. It combines their launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium's network in low-Earth orbit and valuable radio frequencies for satellite communication. Yesterday we reported a +6% rise in May air cargo activity. But today the May air passenger travel data was released showing a declined -2.2% from a year ago, down -3.1% for international travel. The main diver of the pullback was international travel through the Middle East (-28.8%). But it is also worth noting that domestic air travel in China fell (-6.2%) as well as in the US (-1.9%). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.43%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4026/oz, up a net +US$4/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$59.50/oz, up +US$1.50 from a day ago. Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$69.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$73/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (5 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels have been headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.6 which is up another +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$58.325 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. There were several big gainers in the big-tech space, though no specific catalyst in view. In macro news, Dallas Fed manufacturing fell a bit below consensus, though still reported steady new orders and rising employment.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of new truce agreements in the Middle East, at least as claimed by the US. Iran is conspicuously quiet that there is any agreement however. But at the year's half-way point, economic prospects are generally far from dire. In the US, the next regional Fed factory survey for June is out from the Dallas Fed. That shows little-change. Price pressures were mixed, as selling prices and wages rose faster while input cost pressures held steady. Looking ahead, manufacturers remained optimistic, especially as they are able to recover their cost increases. It is a sign inflation is being tolerated and embedding. Despite that, company bosses say inflation is their top concern. Across the Pacific retail sales in Japan rose +5.3% in May from a year ago, rising from an upwardly revised +2.8% rise in April and higher than the expected +3.2% gain. It was also their strongest growth since November 2023. The strength was broad-based and especially in new car sales. Not driving this increase was fuel costs because they actually fell in the month. In South Korea, a monumental public-private investment announcement. They have announced an "unprecedented" US$520 bln (NZ$920 bln) plan with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to expand chipmaking capacity in the country to stay competitive in the global artificial intelligence race. It will feature the construction of new four production facilities, or "fabs" - two by each of the chipmakers. The surge that started in March for Singapore's producer prices has only risen from there, coming in +26.8% higher than year-ago levels. This doesn't include fuel, but it does include chemicals (+29%) and machinery (+31%). Malaysia's producer prices rose +7.8% in May from a year ago, accelerating from a 5.4% growth in the prior month and marking the third straight month of gain. It was also the fastest increase since June 2022, with producer-level cost pressures mounting amid persistent disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. India's industrial production stayed at an expansion rate of +5.1% in May from a year ago, held back by their mining industry, and no doubt by energy conservation issues. But it is still a fast expansion and higher than the 4.8% rate in May 2025. EU economic sentiment ticked up in June from a low level, mainly because of an improvement in consumer sentiment. But it was not matched by business a similar improvement in business sentiment. Globally, the FAO has been reviewing the outlook for the rural economy. Among many observations, they see China's demand for beef rising sharply so that beef and sheep meat prices will be underpinned. For dairy products, they note that most of the global growth will come from India, but for internal cosumption. Only 7% of global production is expected to be exported, and 70% of that will be by just three countries - the EU, the US and New Zealand. Prices are expected to stay high for exported product. Overall, they see rising rural productivity, especially in advanced countries. And staying global, the latest data for air cargo demand has been released, for May, and that shows a +6% expansion, driven by an +8.0% rise in Asia Pacific international trade, and a +12.9% recovery in trade with North America The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has retreated to US$4022/oz, down a net -US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58/oz, down -US$1 from a day ago. Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just on US$71/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$73/bbl. (Interestingly, while these prices rose, Russian oil prices fell, now down to US$57/bbl ).Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent flare up in fighting with just 14 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (2 dark with transponders off) but 28 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels were headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 821 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,319 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are betting all-in that a deal between the US and Iran will unlock the Strait of Hormuz soon. An Iranian State TV report has triggered the optimism. (And even though the US has denied it.) More ships are transiting, but it is still only a fraction of 'normal'. However it is enough to drive the price of crude oil lower. But despite all that, financial markets seem to remain unconvinced, or at least they have turned defensive due to what lies ahead of a resolution. How well any deal will stick between the two parties who have become quite transactional remains to be seen. Certainly the US is unlikely to be trusted to maintain the deal by both Iran, and even its own traditional allies. Iran will be Iran, agreeing but preparing for another attack/fight. The one thing the US/Israeli thing has done is solidify the Iranian regime's position at home. It no longer has internal dissent or street challenges, and it will thank Trump for that. In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week, as US 30 year mortgage rates rose. Most of the fall is from the outsized retreat in refinance activity (-18%), although new purchase activity did dip as well. Those mortgage rates rose to their highest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the ADP tracking of private payrolls showed the good levels continued last week, even if there was a small dip posted. And that is supported by factory survey data out from the Richmond Fed for the mid-Atlantic states area. New order levels rose notable. And firms expected growth in prices paid to moderate slightly over the next 12 months. But there was no improvement in the forward expectations, despite these improvements. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector survey remained quite negative, even if less so in May than in April. But their uncertainty metric is notably less. There was a US Treasury 5yr Note auction overnight and that delivered a yield of 4.13% (4.18% high), up sharply from the 3.90% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%). And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$49 at US$4450/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$74.50/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$4.50 to just on US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$95/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +60 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,765 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%. Join us later today for full coverage of the 2026 Budget release, an election budget of course. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

In a live interview with Texas Bureau Chief Julie Fine, Rob Kaplan, Goldman Sachs Vice Chair and former Dallas Fed President, shared his views on the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Kaplan expressed confidence in Warsh's ability to lead, noting the significant challenges ahead, particularly with the upcoming Fed meeting. He highlighted the shift in market expectations over the past eight weeks, from anticipating a rate cut later in the year to now considering a possible rate increase or no change due to persistent inflation and elevated oil prices. Kaplan emphasized that Warsh will need to navigate internal Fed dynamics, including addressing recent dissent and clarifying the Fed's forward guidance. A key focus will be explaining the forthcoming dot plot, which is expected to indicate firmer interest rate expectations rather than lower ones. Kaplan underscored the importance of Walsh's preparation for the press conference and his efforts to unify the Fed's messaging amid complex economic conditions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Texas cattleman Leslie Callahan discusses why that summer-time grilling is likely to remain pricey as the industry contends with fewer ranchers and the threat of disease. Dallas Fed economists Emily Kerr and Mariam Yousuf explore with him the outlook for an iconic Texas industry.

How will President Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, shape monetary policy if confirmed as Fed chair? Goldman Sachs' Rob Kaplan, vice chairman and the former president of the Dallas Fed, shares views on Warsh's potential approach to monetary policy, balance sheet, and communications. This episode was recorded on April 27, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: When is it ever a time not to spend more money and create more specialty positions in public schools? One would think that declining enrollments, including from illegal immigration which increase the need for hard to find and expensive bilingual specialists, would be a time for public school districts to catch their fiscal breaths. But no, it's just another crisis that needs more money despite the fact declining enrollments vastly lower expenses.Plus other border and immigration news: CBS report marvels that once-chaotic southern border crossing has gone quiet under Trump crackdown Trump Immigration Agenda Upends West Texas US Attorney's Office Mexican Navy Cracks Down on Gulf Cartel's Fuel Smuggling Operation near Texas Border State Department Warns About Cartel Violence in Mexican Border City Following Commander's Arrest | Reynosa Wakes to Narco Blockades After Capture of Regional Metros Officer Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed reports: Texas service sector resumes growth in April.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Robert Kaplan, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs and former Dallas Fed president, discusses the outlook for US monetary policy. Kaplan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Teene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in April 2020, oil prices went negative after the futures market underestimated just how much demand had collapsed, causing chaos as market participants scrambled to unload their oil. Here in April 2026, the oil futures market is in danger of something similar but in the opposite direction. Certain market participants just may be underestimating how much supply has collapsed. Worrying that might be the case, the Dallas Fed surveyed oil industry companies about what they're seeing and where they think the Hormuz blockage is leading the energy marketplace. You're not going to like it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Ready to explore? Master monetary systems – past and future - with structure, clarity, and confidence. Visit https://eurodollar.university/membership-------------------------------------------------Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q1 2026 updatehttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2601/2601updateOil Trader Andurand Lost 52% in April First Half on Oil Betshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/andurand-lost-52-in-april-first-half-as-ceasefire-hurt-oil-betsThe world is watching the wrong oil pricehttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/23/the-world-is-watching-the-wrong-oil-price/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Texas gets two big court decisions. First, the U.S. Supreme Court formally puts Texas' newest Congressional district maps in service. Second, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals allows Texas' SB4 to go into effect allowing state arrests of illegal aliens in certain situations and state court orders for deportation. The court has not yet ruled on the constitutionality of the law but is allowing it to go into effect while the battle is waged a the district court level.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed survey: Texas manufacturing expansion strengthens in April.Related to the latest nutjob Leftist trying to murder the president and top officials: Barack Obama Is Still Annoying | National Review First Lady Melania Trump Blasts ‘Coward' Jimmy Kimmel, Urges ABC to Pull the Plug “You Should be Ashamed of Yourself” – Trump Blasts '60 Minutes' Anchor Norah O'Donnell to Her Face For Reading WHCD Shooter's Manifesto Illegal migrant ‘cannibal' attacks 3-year-old in San Antonio park, the Biden admin fumbled ‘completely preventable' assault.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. It was a relatively quiet session with limited upside ahead of a major week of corporate earnings. Nothing on today's economic calendar other than the Dallas Fed manufacturing report for April.

It was a pleasure to welcome Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed, to the Alpha Exchange.   We begin with Rob's reflections on his time at the helm of the Dallas Fed from 2015 to 2021, a period spanning rate liftoff, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID crisis. He outlines how his perspective as a business practitioner led him to focus on structural forces—demographics, globalization, and technology—rather than relying solely on cyclical data and economic models.   We then turn to the current environment, where the Fed faces a more complex trade-off between inflation and employment. Rob highlights the limits of monetary policy, emphasizing that broader economic outcomes are increasingly shaped by fiscal policy, regulation, and structural trends beyond the Fed's control.   The conversation also explores changes in financial markets, including the diminished influence of Fed policy on the long end of the yield curve, the growing importance of supply and demand for Treasuries, and the implications of a more leveraged global economy.   We close with a discussion on regulation, private credit, and the impact of geopolitical shocks, as well as how AI-driven disruption is influencing corporate behavior and risk management across industries.   I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rob Kaplan.

Gary Hoover, author of Ladder or Lottery: Economic Promises and the Reality of Who Gets Ahead, discusses with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius why some people who follow the rules for getting ahead instead fall behind.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day:  A story about a judge in Harris County set me off. We have become such a weakling, pansy society that we will not be able to take out the directed energy of China and other competitors unless our populace decides to grow up and toughen up. Headline: Harris County judge's harsh treatment of IT worker goes viral. What “harsh” treatment? This is nothing, nothing!Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.TX9 GOP runoff: Mealer gets backing of Don Huffines.A big piece in the Texas Tribune on the GOP Railroad Commission runoff. I backed Jim Wright and stand by that. Bo French is talking nothing about the oil and gas business or anything else that has anything to do with the Railroad Commission.Texas Service Sector was steady in March according to the Dallas Fed report.Big growth in the Rio Grande Valley: Cowen: SpaceX has generated roughly $99 million in tourism-related economic impact; $13 billion into the regional economy. I sent this to our friend Bob Zimmerman and he had an important political point to make. Cowen: Port of Brownsville contributing an ‘astounding' $11.9 billion to Texas' GDP Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Texas' $1.3 Billion Fix to Cool Deadly Hot Prisons Goes to Trial – these lawsuits are ridiculous as Texas is spending huge money to address the problem. Pitman and other federal judges too often want the cache of controlling the states. And even at the most inflated number estimating deaths in Texas prisons due to, or exacerbated by, heat, is that number actually any greater than that of the non-prison population?Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Student dead after shooting teacher at Hill Country Preparatory College High School in Comal ISD.Texas manufacturing continues to grow according to the Dallas Fed.The Texas Supreme Court rightly ends 2021 winter storm litigation against power generators.Paxton wins CPAC poll more than 3 to 1 over Cornyn, gets CPAC endorsement in U.S. Senate GOP runoff race. In speech, Paxton says he'll be more like Senator Ted Cruz and look out for Texas as opposed to Cornyn's DC values.TX19 Runoff: Several former candidates endorse Tom Sell.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The dominant structural shift identified centers on liability allocation and governance in the context of agentic AI deployment across IT and managed services. The episode underscores how automation is moving beyond content generation to direct operational and security actions, referencing technology from OpenAI (GPT-5.3 Instant), Anthropic (Claude Marketplace), Google Workspace CLI, Microsoft's SharePoint AI features, and Hexnode's Genie AI. Vendors are embedding AI deeper into productivity and endpoint infrastructure, increasing both operational efficiency and the risk footprint—making governance, reliability, and accountability the new competitive differentiators. The most consequential development highlighted is the industry-wide disconnect between rapid AI remediation adoption and lagging governance. According to Omdia, 88% of organizations are using AI-driven remediation, but only 44% have implemented it for most exposure types, and nearly half (49%) of security teams lack trust in these systems. IBM data shows that 63% of organizations lack formal AI incident response policies, meaning deployment often outpaces the development of auditability and risk management. This creates a landscape where automated decisions are taken at scale without clear accountability structures or incident protocols. Supporting developments reinforce these governance and risk concerns. Reports of cognitive fatigue—termed “AI brain fry”—affecting over 14% of users (Boston Consulting Group/UC Riverside) and a 39% increase in error rates among those affected, point to compounding human and system risk when automation outpaces oversight. Market analysis from Accenture, Wharton, and the Dallas Fed notes that AI has shifted skill demand, displaced younger tech workers, and pressured traditional fixed-fee business models. Meanwhile, vendors are migrating from predictable per-seat pricing to variable token-based consumption, passing operational uncertainty onto MSPs and their clients. For MSPs, IT service providers, and technology leaders, the practical implications are clear. Failure to implement explicit governance, contract clauses, and incident protocols exposes providers to unpredictable liability. Passing through ungoverned consumption costs under fixed-contracts damages margins as AI use expands. The increasing cognitive load on staff supervising partially trusted automation further compounds operational risk. As the pricing model shifts, providers must negotiate new contract terms, institute AI incident playbooks, audit tool autonomy, and manage the blast radius of AI with the same rigor as legacy security controls. 00:00 Platform Land Grab 03:56 Who Owns Failure 07:27 Skills Over Titles 09:52 Why Do We Care?  Supported by: JumpCloud  

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Much from the campaign trail and a bit on tonight's State of the Union address: 3 Reasons Democrat State of the Union Stunts Will Likely Fail El Paso Democrat Escobar will boycott State of Union address Casino-Backed PAC Dumps Millions Into Final Stretch of Texas GOP Primaries At $110M, Texas blows past Senate primary spending record James Talarico campaigns in Lubbock – the perversion of “love” by the Left Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas service sector still growing, says Dallas Fed.Federal Judge pauses Texas DEI ban in 3 school districts.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates, or hear the podcast of the show after 6pm Central here.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: U.S. trained soldiers took down a major Mexican drug cartel thug. The reaction of the Mexican people shows the lies of Mexico's Leftist leadership and our complicit media. Mexico Confirms 25 National Guardsmen Killed in Cartel's Terror Response to El Mencho's Death Mexico Erupts in Flames After Death of Largest Terrorist Cartel Boss Governor Abbott Directs DPS To Increase Public Safety Operations Amid Cartel Violence $9.9 million liquid meth bust in Dallas gave glimpse into El Mencho-led cartel operation Big Bend border wall to be completed by 2028 Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas manufacturing sector growth remains solid, says Dallas Fed.Attorney General Paxton Secures Injunction Against Electric Company that Caused the Devastating Smokehouse Creek Fire – Xcel/Southwestern Public Service.Hitchcock mayor's arrest on gambling charges tied to “game rooms” in Galveston County. A perfect example of why Lubbock Co. Commissioner Jason Corley fought so hard, against the county judge and sheriff, to get a better handle of these operations. Today, Lubbock Co. further tightened its regulations on these places.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates. www.PrattonTexas.com

Andrew and Ben discuss Meta's latest acquisition plans and the Dallas Fed survey. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Gavin Newsom's California is a travesty for energy policies, and we can see yet another hit to consumers. The Utility companies are now limited in the profits they can make to rebuild the grid. That will SQUASH investment and get more companies to leave California, and take the jobs with them out of the State. As companies shut down and cut jobs, they also cut tax revenue, and that is going to make the financial crisis brought on by Gavin even worse.His Energy Policies have now become a complete national security risk for the western half of the United States. When you consider the corruption, graft, and greed exemplified during Gavin Newsom's Governorship, it won't be easy to rebuild California after he leaves office.1. The energy policies and challenges in California, particularly the regulation of utility profits and the impact on energy reliability.Michael Tanner and Stuart Turley discuss how California's approach to regulating energy providers like PG&E and Edison differs from other states, leading to issues with grid investment and energy reliability. They contrast California's "top-down" policies with a more collaborative approach in different states.2. The geopolitical tensions and sanctions related to Venezuela and Russia.The hosts discuss the Trump administration's actions to intercept oil tankers related to Venezuela, and the potential motivations behind these moves, such as regime change, protecting Gulf Coast refinery interests, and impacting Russia's war in Ukraine.3. The potential of nuclear fusion as an energy source, and its connection to Trump's media company.Stuart Turley discusses the promise of nuclear fusion technology and how Trump's media company, Truth Social, may be involved in developing or licensing fusion-related patents.4. The outlook for the oil and gas industry based on the Dallas Fed survey.Time Stamps00:16 California Cuts PG&E and Edison's profits for grid improvement.03:47 California's Corruption exposed by Katy Grimes at the California Globe08:17 Oil and Venezuela's impact on global markets11:06 Sanctions through Drone strikes13:31 Fusion and President Trump may be a great investment for humanityWe cover key insights from the Dallas Fed's survey of oil and gas executives, including their price expectations, activity levels, and concerns about a potential market oversupply. Is there a glut, or is the glut simply misunderstood, or is the market recalibrating to a new method? You will want to see our Doomberg interview in January.1.California Cuts PG&E's and Edison's Profits for Grid Investments: Gavin Newsom's California Poses a National Security Risk Due to Flawed Energy Policies2.San Francisco Crippled by Widespread Power Outages on Busy Holiday Shopping Weekend3.Trump Administration Intercepts a Second Tanker in Venezuela Oil Tanker Blockade4.Sanctions through Drone Strikes now in the Mediterranean5.Why Fusion Is Considered Energy's Holy Grail, and how President Trump's media company is betting on a breakthrough6.Lingering pessimism, uncertainty further weigh on oil and gas activity – Dallas Fed7.US Oil Drillers Drop 6 Rigs This Week According to Baker Hughes: What Is the Impact to Consumers and Investors?Check out our sponsor, Reese Energy Consulting https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/Check out our website https://energynewsbeat.co/Check out the Energy News Beat Substack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/Questions on Investing in Oil https://energynewsbeat.co/invest/

Jim Burke, the CEO of Texas-based electricity provider Vistra, discusses the challenges of serving the state and U.S. markets at a time of expanding power demand from data centers and residential users. The Dallas Fed's Pia Orrenius and Garrett Golding explore with Burke what will be needed to keep up.

Cullum Clark, director of the Bush Institute–SMU Economic Growth Initiative and an adjunct economics professor at Southern Methodist University, discusses his recent report, "Build Homes, Expand Opportunity; Lessons from America's Fastest-Growing Cities" with the Dallas Fed's Pia Orrenius.

Texas oil and gas firms are feeling pessimistic about the upcoming year. In the latest Dallas Fed survey, energy firms reported lower production, increased costs and heightened uncertainty. Oil is a good chunk of the Texas economy, and the Texas economy is a good chunk of the U.S. economy — around 9%. Also on the show: auto parts manufacturer First Brands files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the USDA revives its farm-to-school grant program.

Texas oil and gas firms are feeling pessimistic about the upcoming year. In the latest Dallas Fed survey, energy firms reported lower production, increased costs and heightened uncertainty. Oil is a good chunk of the Texas economy, and the Texas economy is a good chunk of the U.S. economy — around 9%. Also on the show: auto parts manufacturer First Brands files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the USDA revives its farm-to-school grant program.

Texas is a leader in accepting credentials from for-profit teacher certification providers. Dallas Fed economist Christa Deneault's research examines how the Texas program stacks up with credentials earned through more conventional means. She discusses her findings with the Dallas Fed's Pia Orrenius.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Much from the Texas Legislature in special session including: Burrow's leadership appears to go very soft on Dem quorum busting in GOP Caucus meeting; House passes lower percentage for voter approval requirement for local tax increases, and; Abbott adds an item to the call that makes it appear an amendment to election law in the regular session from Rep. Shaheen may have given the Dems part of their goal of same day voter registration in some cases.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.The State of Texas, in socialist fashion, buys the Crockett and Menger hotels that sit next to the Alamo. Why, with all the great talent in Texas, did they have to partner with a hospitality firm out of Ohio!?Texas Service Sector and Retail reports from the Dallas Fed.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Texas Democrats were thwarted again Friday night as new Texas Congressional maps passed the Senate. Standard Dem-front groups such as LULAC file suit nastily claiming racism in the maps. Myra Flores call the Dems out for their empty and nasty claims of racism.Legislators are looking at new penalties for lawmaker who choose not to show up to work.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Anti-Wimp update: Fake cops get the full Anti-Wimp treatment in Houston.Media may not like it but legally, and that's his job, Paxton is correct: Attorney General Paxton Instructs Schools to Display the Ten Commandments in Accordance with Texas Law.Texas manufacturing sector is growing, reports the Dallas Fed. Dr Pepper to be split from Keurig and headquartered in Frisco.Trump taps Airbnb founder Joe Gebbia, Texan, to remake federal websites.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading. There was a lot of focus on trade-deal traction today, though headlines coming in are largely as expected. It was quiet on the US economic calendar, but July's Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprised with a positive headline

The Uninsurable Future: How Climate-Driven Insurance Risk is Reshaping Real Estate   The Canary in the CRE Coal Mine If insurance is the canary in the coal mine for climate risk, then the bird has stopped singing. That's the warning from Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and current Director of the Climate Risk Initiative at UC Berkeley. In a conversation that touches on reinsurance markets, mortgage delinquencies, lender behavior, and regulatory dysfunction, Jones laid out the most sobering climate-related CRE risk analysis to date: we are already living through a systemic insurance crisis—and commercial real estate is not exempt.   “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable areas in this country,” Jones warns.   From Homeowners to High-Rises: What the Data Shows Much of the early distress has been observed in the residential and small business markets, where data is more publicly available. A study by the Dallas Fed, cited by Jones, found a direct correlation between areas hardest hit by climate events and surging insurance premiums, non-renewals, and mortgage delinquencies.   But commercial real estate isn't insulated. While pricing data is less transparent due to looser filing requirements, Jones states, “everything that I've seen indicates that those [commercial] rates are going up too,” particularly in regions where catastrophic climate events are becoming more frequent and severe.   Take Florida. One of our clients' office tower's premiums jumped from $300,000 to $1.2 million in a single renewal cycle. That's straight off the bottom line. The hit is entirely non-accretive; it's pure cost.   The Feedback Loop: Insurance, Lending, and Liquidity As insurance availability shrinks and prices soar, lending dries up. Lenders want to see that there is property and casualty insurance yet, as it becomes harder to get, that has implications in credit markets… and flow-through implications to the real economy.   It's not just anecdotal. Jones references studies showing that banks are offloading loans insured by lower-rated, higher-risk insurers to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, effectively shifting the risk onto taxpayers. That means if a hurricane hits and the house is knocked down, there isn't insurance available, potentially because the insurance company went insolvent.   The trend is clear: insurance stress is bleeding into credit markets and weakening the foundations of the entire real estate financing stack.   The “Deregulation” Illusion Some states, like Florida, are trying to respond by loosening regulatory constraints to attract insurers. Jones is skeptical. “Florida rates are four times the national average,” he says. The state has adopted taxpayer-funded reinsurance schemes, weakened litigation protections, and allowed less-robust rating agencies to operate.   Still, “the national branded home insurers are not writing in Florida… they can't make a profit,” says Jones. “So even with all these changes, the background risk is too great.”   In short: deregulation cannot solve a fundamentally unprofitable underwriting environment driven by climate volatility.   Adaptation Isn't Being Priced In - Yet Jones is more optimistic about resilience measures. Home hardening, defensible space, and forest management, especially in wildfire-prone states like California, can materially reduce losses. Commercial insurers often have engineering staff to assess and recommend these strategies.   But the industry hasn't kept pace. “Insurers, by and large, are not accounting for property, community, and landscape-scale adaptation and resilience in their models,” Jones says. One exception is Colorado, which passed a law requiring insurers to factor in proven risk mitigation. This could prove to be a model for commercial markets, but it's early and insurers remain price takers in the face of mounting losses.   From Reinsurance to Municipal Bonds: Signals to Watch What market signals should CRE investors monitor? Jones suggests: Insurance pricing and non-renewals: leading indicators of distress. Reinsurance costs: though recently softening, they've trended upward for years. Lender behavior: especially offloading risky loans to agencies. Rating agency downgrades: particularly for municipalities facing severe climate risk. Housing market mispricing: First Street Foundation estimates as much as $1 trillion in residential overvaluation due to underpriced climate risk. Any of these could tip the balance in specific markets or signal a broader inflection point.   A Slow Collapse or a Sudden Shock? Is this a long-term crisis or a fast-moving one? “It's happening in real time now,” says Jones. “It's more likely that this will be a steady glide into uninsurability… as opposed to one catastrophic event that brings the whole house of cards down.”   Still, the metaphor is chilling. The systemic risks posed by climate-driven insurance failure are already manifesting across sectors. Whether the collapse is gradual or sudden, the endpoint is clear.   “There is no place in the United States where you have a ‘get out of climate change free' card,” Jones warns.   For CRE professionals, that means a hard reckoning is ahead – not just with climate, but with underwriting, capital access, and portfolio risk in a fundamentally altered landscape.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Man who is alleged to have fallen asleep and rammed his 18-wheeler into others, killing five and injuring more, on I-20 near Terrell this weekend appears to be a communist who likely obtained his place here illegally, reports Current Revolt. Given what is know about this guy, his being here is an indictment of our immigration system.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Another coveted Texas Senate seat will be open next year as Sen. Birdwell will not seek reelection. Also, Abbott calls Special Election for Texas Senate District 9, Schatzline drops out of race as Wambsganss jumps in.Verbal sniping on the Lubbock County Commissioners Court has been going on for a long time and it is due to two simple things I explain.Dallas Fed says Texas manufacturing sector mostly unchanged from May survey.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq setting new record closes. It was a fairly quiet session, though there were a few trade headlines of note. It was a fairly light economic day today, with June's Dallas Fed manufacturing just a bit weaker than forecast.

In this episode of the Investing in Integrity podcast, Ross Overline, CEO and co-founder of Scholars of Finance, sits down with Britt Harris. Britt is a legendary investor, financial leader, and coach. He has managed over $500 billion in AUM over his career. You will learn why true leadership in finance goes beyond technical expertise—it requires wisdom, integrity, and a commitment to serving others. Britt has managed over $500 billion across top institutions like Bridgewater and Texas Teachers. They explore the power of truth in leadership, the importance of values-driven decision-making, and how financial professionals can create a lasting positive impact. Britt shares insights on developing wisdom, building strong organizational cultures, and aligning actions with enduring principles. Tune in for timeless insights on leadership, character, and ethical success in finance.Meet Britt Harris:Britt Harris is a renowned investment leader and educator who has served as CIO or CEO for eight different investment firms, managing over $500 billion throughout his career. As the only executive to serve as CEO across all major asset categories - including Verizon (corporate), Texas Teachers (public), Bridgewater (hedge funds), and UTIMCO (university endowments) - Harris brings unique insight into leadership and financial stewardship. He founded the prestigious Titans of Investing program, which has trained over 1,000 graduates across 35 states and 14 countries, collectively creating 41 businesses valued at over $5 billion. His extensive experience includes serving on advisory boards for the New York Stock Exchange and Dallas Fed, advising five different countries on financial markets, and earning three lifetime achievement awards. 

Partners at 1789 Capital Donald Trump Jr. and Omeed Malik are betting on building the “Amazon of guns” through GrabAGun's SPAC deal. Both discuss their “ideological investments” and the future of conservatism, and Trump Jr. weighs in on his father's $TRUMP meme coin. After Lester Holt hosted his last Nightly News, Tom Llamas stepped into the role. Llamas explains how he sees his role as a mainstream journalist in the current news environment. Plus, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan have spoken out on inflation, Neuralink has raised $650m in fresh capital, and CNBC's Courtney Reagan itemizes the costs of tariffs in retail.  Donald Trump Jr. & Omeed Malik - 14:30Courtney Reagan - 38:33Tom Llamas - 45:37 In this episode:Donald J. Trump Jr., @DonaldJTrumpJrOmeed Malik, @RealOmeedMalikCourtney Reagan, @courtreaganBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. EconomyConsumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead.If the U.S. consumer breaks, it's game over.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: A big deadline for the Texas House passed this morning and as usual, many good bills died because leadership waited until the very end of the session to get to work hearing and voting on bills. I review key items that failed and passed including: Texas bill allowing colleges to pay athletes OK'd in Senate Automatic Denial of Bail for Certain Violent Crimes Narrowly Fails in Texas House –  absences give Dems a big win that will cost lives Bill that holds local governments accountable to follow state law allowed to time-out in the House “The People's Veto” Approved by Texas Legislature Texas lawmakers say state documents must list biological sex (the only kind of “sex” there is!) Senate Passes Women's Bill of Rights “Anti-Red Flag Act” advances in House Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report on the Texas Service Sector and retail sales.Space historian Robert Zimmerman of BehindtheBlack.com joins us to explain what went right and wrong in yesterday evening's SpaceX Starship & Superheavy launch test from Starbase, Texas.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: It's the final days of the 89th Texas Legislature. Here are some of the late breaking items covered today: Texas Poised to Enforce Age Verification on Apple, Google App Stores House Approves Legislation to Protect Students From Sexual Content – or how the Leftist media characterizes it: Texas Legislature poised to implement sweeping restrictions on school libraries. $2.5 Billion Water Infrastructure Deal, Additional 20-Year Annual $1 Billion Struck Texas Legislature moves to observe daylight saving time year-round – federal law would have to change first Tort reform: New limits for personal injury and wrongful death lawsuits may become a reality in Texas. ERCOT would get a ‘kill switch' for large consumers under bill passed in House Democrats kill bill to stop bum encampments in Texas cities Dems run down the clock to defeat Texas ‘SAVE' act and Lege's most-restrictive abortion bill. – two important bills and who controls “the clock?” House leadership does. Leftist press pretends that “transgender” folk have special “rights” that Republicans are “targeting.“ Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas manufacturing production steady – Dallas Fed report.Texas Lottery scandal now includes guilty pleas in federal investigation. But lawmakers didn't have the guts to shut it all down.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

As the US economy faces a stagflationary shock, how will the Fed navigate this tricky environment? Rob Kaplan, the Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs and the former president of the Dallas Fed, shares his perspective on how monetary policymakers will navigate slower growth and stickier prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices