Podcast appearances and mentions of dallas fed

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are betting all-in that a deal between the US and Iran will unlock the Strait of Hormuz soon. An Iranian State TV report has triggered the optimism. (And even though the US has denied it.) More ships are transiting, but it is still only a fraction of 'normal'. However it is enough to drive the price of crude oil lower. But despite all that, financial markets seem to remain unconvinced, or at least they have turned defensive due to what lies ahead of a resolution. How well any deal will stick between the two parties who have become quite transactional remains to be seen. Certainly the US is unlikely to be trusted to maintain the deal by both Iran, and even its own traditional allies. Iran will be Iran, agreeing but preparing for another attack/fight. The one thing the US/Israeli thing has done is solidify the Iranian regime's position at home. It no longer has internal dissent or street challenges, and it will thank Trump for that. In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week, as US 30 year mortgage rates rose. Most of the fall is from the outsized retreat in refinance activity (-18%), although new purchase activity did dip as well. Those mortgage rates rose to their highest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the ADP tracking of private payrolls showed the good levels continued last week, even if there was a small dip posted. And that is supported by factory survey data out from the Richmond Fed for the mid-Atlantic states area. New order levels rose notable. And firms expected growth in prices paid to moderate slightly over the next 12 months. But there was no improvement in the forward expectations, despite these improvements. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector survey remained quite negative, even if less so in May than in April. But their uncertainty metric is notably less. There was a US Treasury 5yr Note auction overnight and that delivered a yield of 4.13% (4.18% high), up sharply from the 3.90% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%). And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$49 at US$4450/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$74.50/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$4.50 to just on US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$95/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +60 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,765 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%. Join us later today for full coverage of the 2026 Budget release, an election budget of course. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

In a live interview with Texas Bureau Chief Julie Fine, Rob Kaplan, Goldman Sachs Vice Chair and former Dallas Fed President, shared his views on the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Kaplan expressed confidence in Warsh's ability to lead, noting the significant challenges ahead, particularly with the upcoming Fed meeting. He highlighted the shift in market expectations over the past eight weeks, from anticipating a rate cut later in the year to now considering a possible rate increase or no change due to persistent inflation and elevated oil prices. Kaplan emphasized that Warsh will need to navigate internal Fed dynamics, including addressing recent dissent and clarifying the Fed's forward guidance. A key focus will be explaining the forthcoming dot plot, which is expected to indicate firmer interest rate expectations rather than lower ones. Kaplan underscored the importance of Walsh's preparation for the press conference and his efforts to unify the Fed's messaging amid complex economic conditions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Texas cattleman Leslie Callahan discusses why that summer-time grilling is likely to remain pricey as the industry contends with fewer ranchers and the threat of disease. Dallas Fed economists Emily Kerr and Mariam Yousuf explore with him the outlook for an iconic Texas industry.

How will President Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, shape monetary policy if confirmed as Fed chair? Goldman Sachs' Rob Kaplan, vice chairman and the former president of the Dallas Fed, shares views on Warsh's potential approach to monetary policy, balance sheet, and communications. This episode was recorded on April 27, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: When is it ever a time not to spend more money and create more specialty positions in public schools? One would think that declining enrollments, including from illegal immigration which increase the need for hard to find and expensive bilingual specialists, would be a time for public school districts to catch their fiscal breaths. But no, it's just another crisis that needs more money despite the fact declining enrollments vastly lower expenses.Plus other border and immigration news: CBS report marvels that once-chaotic southern border crossing has gone quiet under Trump crackdown Trump Immigration Agenda Upends West Texas US Attorney's Office Mexican Navy Cracks Down on Gulf Cartel's Fuel Smuggling Operation near Texas Border State Department Warns About Cartel Violence in Mexican Border City Following Commander's Arrest | Reynosa Wakes to Narco Blockades After Capture of Regional Metros Officer Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed reports: Texas service sector resumes growth in April.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Robert Kaplan, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs and former Dallas Fed president, discusses the outlook for US monetary policy. Kaplan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Teene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of fractures emerging in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and of OPEC itself. But first up today there was a dairy Pulse auction, but this one bringing few changes from the prior week's full event. Prices for butter, SMP and WMP were little-changed. But the AMF price did fall -4.4% to its lowest of the year so far. In Australia, it is worth noting that bond markets are in full bear more. They have driven their AGB benchmark 10 year bond yield to a 15 year high (price to a 15 year low), and these movements are replicated across the whole maturity curve. Expectations are high that the RBA is about to tackle inflation head-on with purposeful monetary policy actions starting next week. And there is spillover to New Zealand benchmark rates too. In the US, their weekly ADP employment report signaled a third week of good payroll gains in the private sector. And the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment was marginally better than expected in April. Most aspects deteriorated in this latest survey, except the labour market conditions that the ADP signals have licked up. It was similar for the Richmond Fed's factory survey which was little-changed but with a hint of positiveness. And the Dallas Fed services survey was marginally less negative. Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April meeting overnight, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since September 1995. The widely expected decision passed by a 6–3 vote, amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and surging energy prices. The three dissenters wanted a hike to 1.0%. In its quarterly outlook, the central bank raised its FY2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8% from 1.9%, citing higher crude oil prices that likely push up energy and goods costs. Overall, this review was more hawksih than expected. Korean manufacturing business sentiment rose in April to its highest since June 2024, with improvements across the board. India's industrial production is settling in with a growth rate of about 4%, the March level which it has been at (or above) for eight of the past nine months. In Europe, their has been a very big jump in inflation expectations. Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March in the latest ECB survey, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This was the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$83 at US$4599/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$100/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$2, and now at US$111/bbl. And the UAE announced overnight that it is quitting OPEC, chafing at the export restrictions the cartel uses to manipulate prices. Some wee this as the beginning of the end of OPEC. We should also probably note that a Japanese supertanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz - with Iran's permission and in defiance of the US blockade. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,178 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Back in April 2020, oil prices went negative after the futures market underestimated just how much demand had collapsed, causing chaos as market participants scrambled to unload their oil. Here in April 2026, the oil futures market is in danger of something similar but in the opposite direction. Certain market participants just may be underestimating how much supply has collapsed. Worrying that might be the case, the Dallas Fed surveyed oil industry companies about what they're seeing and where they think the Hormuz blockage is leading the energy marketplace. You're not going to like it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Ready to explore? Master monetary systems – past and future - with structure, clarity, and confidence. Visit https://eurodollar.university/membership-------------------------------------------------Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q1 2026 updatehttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2601/2601updateOil Trader Andurand Lost 52% in April First Half on Oil Betshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/andurand-lost-52-in-april-first-half-as-ceasefire-hurt-oil-betsThe world is watching the wrong oil pricehttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/23/the-world-is-watching-the-wrong-oil-price/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Texas gets two big court decisions. First, the U.S. Supreme Court formally puts Texas' newest Congressional district maps in service. Second, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals allows Texas' SB4 to go into effect allowing state arrests of illegal aliens in certain situations and state court orders for deportation. The court has not yet ruled on the constitutionality of the law but is allowing it to go into effect while the battle is waged a the district court level.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed survey: Texas manufacturing expansion strengthens in April.Related to the latest nutjob Leftist trying to murder the president and top officials: Barack Obama Is Still Annoying | National Review First Lady Melania Trump Blasts ‘Coward' Jimmy Kimmel, Urges ABC to Pull the Plug “You Should be Ashamed of Yourself” – Trump Blasts '60 Minutes' Anchor Norah O'Donnell to Her Face For Reading WHCD Shooter's Manifesto Illegal migrant ‘cannibal' attacks 3-year-old in San Antonio park, the Biden admin fumbled ‘completely preventable' assault.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. It was a relatively quiet session with limited upside ahead of a major week of corporate earnings. Nothing on today's economic calendar other than the Dallas Fed manufacturing report for April.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices are rising as 'peace talks' stall. And the German Chancellor has said the US is being 'humiliated' by Iran. In the US, the Dallas Fed factory survey shows activity continued to rise in April but that their new orders index plummeted sharply into contraction territory. Their shipments index fell into negative territory for the first time this year, while perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April. There were two large US Treasury bond auctions earlier today and while the yields achieved were little different to those at the prior equivalent events a month ago, there was a notable riser in demand. The 2 year bond brought +8.7% more bid value, and the five year +1.8% more. Together that was +US$18 bln more. Canada has launched a new sovereign wealth fund, seeding it with an initial C$25 bln funding. We should note that Moody's has upgraded China's A1 credit rating outlook to 'Stable' from 'Negative' from its last change in December 2023. Despite the Middle East headwinds, China's industrial profits were +15.5% in Q1-2026 than in the same period in 2025. This maintained the good expansion in January and February. SOE profits rose +10%, local private forms were up +25%, but foreign firms in China hardly managed any increase. A large part of the result has been the huge profits their metals industry is winning, especially for rare earth minerals. Taiwanese consumer sentiment edged up in April, but only marginally from its very low level. It is still basically at its lowest since January 2023. In Malaysia, a sharp rise in oil prices in March turned their overall producer price deflation into inflation. It is sure to get sharper in subsequent months. Meanwhile in Singapore industrial production rose sharply in March, up +10% from the same month a year ago after the very lackluster February result. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped in May more than expected and to its weakest level since February 2023. Mounting pressure on households from rising energy prices has pushed inflation higher and sentiment lower. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$28 at US$4681/oz. (If you buy gold, it might just be supporting a criminal supply chain.) Silver is little-changed at just under US$75.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just under US$97/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3.50, and now at US$109/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$84.50/bbl and US$91/bbl respectively, so a big net rise. And we should note that the Russian benchmark (Urals) oil price has eased by -US$1.50 to US$106/bbl The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.5 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,753 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

It was a pleasure to welcome Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed, to the Alpha Exchange.   We begin with Rob's reflections on his time at the helm of the Dallas Fed from 2015 to 2021, a period spanning rate liftoff, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID crisis. He outlines how his perspective as a business practitioner led him to focus on structural forces—demographics, globalization, and technology—rather than relying solely on cyclical data and economic models.   We then turn to the current environment, where the Fed faces a more complex trade-off between inflation and employment. Rob highlights the limits of monetary policy, emphasizing that broader economic outcomes are increasingly shaped by fiscal policy, regulation, and structural trends beyond the Fed's control.   The conversation also explores changes in financial markets, including the diminished influence of Fed policy on the long end of the yield curve, the growing importance of supply and demand for Treasuries, and the implications of a more leveraged global economy.   We close with a discussion on regulation, private credit, and the impact of geopolitical shocks, as well as how AI-driven disruption is influencing corporate behavior and risk management across industries.   I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rob Kaplan.

Gary Hoover, author of Ladder or Lottery: Economic Promises and the Reality of Who Gets Ahead, discusses with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius why some people who follow the rules for getting ahead instead fall behind.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day:  A story about a judge in Harris County set me off. We have become such a weakling, pansy society that we will not be able to take out the directed energy of China and other competitors unless our populace decides to grow up and toughen up. Headline: Harris County judge's harsh treatment of IT worker goes viral. What “harsh” treatment? This is nothing, nothing!Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.TX9 GOP runoff: Mealer gets backing of Don Huffines.A big piece in the Texas Tribune on the GOP Railroad Commission runoff. I backed Jim Wright and stand by that. Bo French is talking nothing about the oil and gas business or anything else that has anything to do with the Railroad Commission.Texas Service Sector was steady in March according to the Dallas Fed report.Big growth in the Rio Grande Valley: Cowen: SpaceX has generated roughly $99 million in tourism-related economic impact; $13 billion into the regional economy. I sent this to our friend Bob Zimmerman and he had an important political point to make. Cowen: Port of Brownsville contributing an ‘astounding' $11.9 billion to Texas' GDP Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Americans are talking up apparent signals from Tehran that will allow them to declare victory and go home. Markets are taking all this at face-value. But first today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight where prices dipped from the prior week with WMP down -1.5%, SMP down -1.9%, and butter down -6.8%. Results in NZD limited these USD drops. In the US, the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment rose marginally in March from its recent lows. That was despite surging inflation expectations, now well over 5%, and a continuing decline in consumers' future expectations. Meanwhile, US job openings in February retreated and by a bit more than expected. Quits fell too as job security fears rose. Hiring decreased. The Chicago Business Barometer fell in March but from a near four-year high in February but the dip wasn't anticipated. Still, it is the third consecutive month of growth in Chicago's economic activity, rare since 2022, though the pace of expansion slowed significantly. New orders and output continued to grow, but at a slower pace, while jobs decreased. However the Dallas Fed services PMI took quite a tumble to its steepest contraction in almost a year, and a big retreat from February for both their activity and outlook measures. Costs there are rising much faster than prices. The US is getting no relief from petrol and diesel prices, as they hit another high milestone. The gap between WTI and Brent is unusually narrow at present. In Canada, and perhaps unexpectedly. they reported a small expansion in economic activity in January from December (+0.1%) and a slightly faster expansion in February from January (-0.2%). In the face of the threats and bullying from their obnoxious southern neighbour, this is resilience that few expected. In China, major property developer Vanke posted an enormous loss for 2025, and said it is facing a wall of funding maturities. Vanke has survived because of Shenzhen government ownership support, although that is being dialled back too. Meanwhile, China reported better than expected industrial expansions, in their case for their official March factory PMI. And their services PMI also recorded improvement into expansion, again unexpected. Typically these official surveys have been more pessimistic than the unofficial ones from S&P Global, which won't be released for March until later today. They too are expected to record expansion. Japanese data for industrial production and retail sales, both for February, sagged and by a bit morte than anticipated. In Korea, they reported industrial production data that was surprisingly weak in February. Global air passenger travel rose a strong +6.1% in February from the same month in 2025, bolstered by the timing of Chinese New Year. In fact, domestic travel within China in February was up +12.5%. Overall international passenger travel was up +5.9% with the Asia/Pacific region rising +8.6%. Likely much of this expansion will be upended now with the March disruptions and sentiment retreats. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, down -3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$94 from yesterday, now at US$4641/oz. Silver is up +US$4 to US$74.50/oz. American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 at just on US$104.50/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz seem to be slowly returning, but on Iran's terms. The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down another -20 bps at 83.2 AUc. We are down little-changed against the yen. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just on 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps at just over 61.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,646 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Texas' $1.3 Billion Fix to Cool Deadly Hot Prisons Goes to Trial – these lawsuits are ridiculous as Texas is spending huge money to address the problem. Pitman and other federal judges too often want the cache of controlling the states. And even at the most inflated number estimating deaths in Texas prisons due to, or exacerbated by, heat, is that number actually any greater than that of the non-prison population?Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Student dead after shooting teacher at Hill Country Preparatory College High School in Comal ISD.Texas manufacturing continues to grow according to the Dallas Fed.The Texas Supreme Court rightly ends 2021 winter storm litigation against power generators.Paxton wins CPAC poll more than 3 to 1 over Cornyn, gets CPAC endorsement in U.S. Senate GOP runoff race. In speech, Paxton says he'll be more like Senator Ted Cruz and look out for Texas as opposed to Cornyn's DC values.TX19 Runoff: Several former candidates endorse Tom Sell.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are now in week five of a completely preventable global crisis. But first we should note that we are now touching up against the end of the month, and end of the first quarter. This is when fund managers and other large investors lock in their results for upcoming reporting. So there is a lot of position squaring activity at present, and that tends to skew financial market activity. But the fundamental drivers - economic activity, inflation, geopolitical events - are not stopping, so there is still substantial market reaction to those. That is driving serious risk aversion. And markets watch key policymakers too. Fed boss Powell was out speaking today to an economics class at Harvard. In answer to questions, he said distress in the private credit market looks more like a correction and not like a broader systemic event to them. He also said their would regard the inflation threats from the war on Iran as transitory, but that their patience was limited - given the fact that US inflation has been above 2% for five years now. The New York Fed boss Williams was also talking, and he seemed now more concerned with the jobs market, saying a rate cut is a real possibility if it weakens further. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed's factory survey was a touch weaker in March than February on slowing new order growth. But their company outlook index dropped into negative territory and their outlook uncertainty index leapt. In China, they reported an enormous current account surplus of almost +US$¼ tln in Q4-2025, almost US$¾ tln for the year, one that is globally destabilising. Also we should note that countries that signed up to the Chinese Belt & Road system are finding that they are on the short end of that deal. The two items are likely related. India's factory production was up +6.0% in February from a year ago, better than expected. In Europe, their Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped in March on rising inflation expectations tied to the Middle East conflict. So it will be no surprise to learn that German inflation jumped in March, driven by fast-rising fuel costs to its highest in over two years (January 2024) at 2.7%. We should note that the aluminium price is on a sharp move higher again, approaching its mid-March post-pandemic record high. With Middle-East production damaged or out of service because they can't ship, China's dominance of the aluminium market seems likely now. And air cargo demand surged in February, not only in response to Chinese New Year demand, but businesses seemed to rush the sector to get goods shifted fearing the Middle East situation. Sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world, and the severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf are major shifts. February air cargo activity was up +11% from a year earlier with the Asia/Pacific region up +13.6%. But how this played out in March, and will play out in subsequent month, are likely to be a highly volatile mix of 'urgency' restrained by sharply rising costs. It is worth noting too that concerns are rising that the oil and supply-chain problems are almost certainly going to provoke a global food crisis at some stage. Not only die to sharply higher costs, but sharply lower production at the same time. But that is yet to hit us all. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.34%, down -10 bps from yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$54 from yesterday, now at US$4547/oz. Silver is up +US$1 to US$70.50/oz. American oil prices are up another +US$3 at just over US$102.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is -50 USc lower at just on US$112/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz seem to be slowly returning, but on Iran's terms. The Kiwi dollar is -30 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 83.4 AUc. We are down -90 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -25 bps at just on 61.1. The bitcoin price starts today at US$67.359 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The dominant structural shift identified centers on liability allocation and governance in the context of agentic AI deployment across IT and managed services. The episode underscores how automation is moving beyond content generation to direct operational and security actions, referencing technology from OpenAI (GPT-5.3 Instant), Anthropic (Claude Marketplace), Google Workspace CLI, Microsoft's SharePoint AI features, and Hexnode's Genie AI. Vendors are embedding AI deeper into productivity and endpoint infrastructure, increasing both operational efficiency and the risk footprint—making governance, reliability, and accountability the new competitive differentiators. The most consequential development highlighted is the industry-wide disconnect between rapid AI remediation adoption and lagging governance. According to Omdia, 88% of organizations are using AI-driven remediation, but only 44% have implemented it for most exposure types, and nearly half (49%) of security teams lack trust in these systems. IBM data shows that 63% of organizations lack formal AI incident response policies, meaning deployment often outpaces the development of auditability and risk management. This creates a landscape where automated decisions are taken at scale without clear accountability structures or incident protocols. Supporting developments reinforce these governance and risk concerns. Reports of cognitive fatigue—termed “AI brain fry”—affecting over 14% of users (Boston Consulting Group/UC Riverside) and a 39% increase in error rates among those affected, point to compounding human and system risk when automation outpaces oversight. Market analysis from Accenture, Wharton, and the Dallas Fed notes that AI has shifted skill demand, displaced younger tech workers, and pressured traditional fixed-fee business models. Meanwhile, vendors are migrating from predictable per-seat pricing to variable token-based consumption, passing operational uncertainty onto MSPs and their clients. For MSPs, IT service providers, and technology leaders, the practical implications are clear. Failure to implement explicit governance, contract clauses, and incident protocols exposes providers to unpredictable liability. Passing through ungoverned consumption costs under fixed-contracts damages margins as AI use expands. The increasing cognitive load on staff supervising partially trusted automation further compounds operational risk. As the pricing model shifts, providers must negotiate new contract terms, institute AI incident playbooks, audit tool autonomy, and manage the blast radius of AI with the same rigor as legacy security controls. 00:00 Platform Land Grab 03:56 Who Owns Failure 07:27 Skills Over Titles 09:52 Why Do We Care?  Supported by: JumpCloud  

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Much from the campaign trail and a bit on tonight's State of the Union address: 3 Reasons Democrat State of the Union Stunts Will Likely Fail El Paso Democrat Escobar will boycott State of Union address Casino-Backed PAC Dumps Millions Into Final Stretch of Texas GOP Primaries At $110M, Texas blows past Senate primary spending record James Talarico campaigns in Lubbock – the perversion of “love” by the Left Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas service sector still growing, says Dallas Fed.Federal Judge pauses Texas DEI ban in 3 school districts.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates, or hear the podcast of the show after 6pm Central here.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: U.S. trained soldiers took down a major Mexican drug cartel thug. The reaction of the Mexican people shows the lies of Mexico's Leftist leadership and our complicit media. Mexico Confirms 25 National Guardsmen Killed in Cartel's Terror Response to El Mencho's Death Mexico Erupts in Flames After Death of Largest Terrorist Cartel Boss Governor Abbott Directs DPS To Increase Public Safety Operations Amid Cartel Violence $9.9 million liquid meth bust in Dallas gave glimpse into El Mencho-led cartel operation Big Bend border wall to be completed by 2028 Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas manufacturing sector growth remains solid, says Dallas Fed.Attorney General Paxton Secures Injunction Against Electric Company that Caused the Devastating Smokehouse Creek Fire – Xcel/Southwestern Public Service.Hitchcock mayor's arrest on gambling charges tied to “game rooms” in Galveston County. A perfect example of why Lubbock Co. Commissioner Jason Corley fought so hard, against the county judge and sheriff, to get a better handle of these operations. Today, Lubbock Co. further tightened its regulations on these places.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates. www.PrattonTexas.com

Andrew and Ben discuss Meta's latest acquisition plans and the Dallas Fed survey. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Gavin Newsom's California is a travesty for energy policies, and we can see yet another hit to consumers. The Utility companies are now limited in the profits they can make to rebuild the grid. That will SQUASH investment and get more companies to leave California, and take the jobs with them out of the State. As companies shut down and cut jobs, they also cut tax revenue, and that is going to make the financial crisis brought on by Gavin even worse.His Energy Policies have now become a complete national security risk for the western half of the United States. When you consider the corruption, graft, and greed exemplified during Gavin Newsom's Governorship, it won't be easy to rebuild California after he leaves office.1. The energy policies and challenges in California, particularly the regulation of utility profits and the impact on energy reliability.Michael Tanner and Stuart Turley discuss how California's approach to regulating energy providers like PG&E and Edison differs from other states, leading to issues with grid investment and energy reliability. They contrast California's "top-down" policies with a more collaborative approach in different states.2. The geopolitical tensions and sanctions related to Venezuela and Russia.The hosts discuss the Trump administration's actions to intercept oil tankers related to Venezuela, and the potential motivations behind these moves, such as regime change, protecting Gulf Coast refinery interests, and impacting Russia's war in Ukraine.3. The potential of nuclear fusion as an energy source, and its connection to Trump's media company.Stuart Turley discusses the promise of nuclear fusion technology and how Trump's media company, Truth Social, may be involved in developing or licensing fusion-related patents.4. The outlook for the oil and gas industry based on the Dallas Fed survey.Time Stamps00:16 California Cuts PG&E and Edison's profits for grid improvement.03:47 California's Corruption exposed by Katy Grimes at the California Globe08:17 Oil and Venezuela's impact on global markets11:06 Sanctions through Drone strikes13:31 Fusion and President Trump may be a great investment for humanityWe cover key insights from the Dallas Fed's survey of oil and gas executives, including their price expectations, activity levels, and concerns about a potential market oversupply. Is there a glut, or is the glut simply misunderstood, or is the market recalibrating to a new method? You will want to see our Doomberg interview in January.1.California Cuts PG&E's and Edison's Profits for Grid Investments: Gavin Newsom's California Poses a National Security Risk Due to Flawed Energy Policies2.San Francisco Crippled by Widespread Power Outages on Busy Holiday Shopping Weekend3.Trump Administration Intercepts a Second Tanker in Venezuela Oil Tanker Blockade4.Sanctions through Drone Strikes now in the Mediterranean5.Why Fusion Is Considered Energy's Holy Grail, and how President Trump's media company is betting on a breakthrough6.Lingering pessimism, uncertainty further weigh on oil and gas activity – Dallas Fed7.US Oil Drillers Drop 6 Rigs This Week According to Baker Hughes: What Is the Impact to Consumers and Investors?Check out our sponsor, Reese Energy Consulting https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/Check out our website https://energynewsbeat.co/Check out the Energy News Beat Substack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/Questions on Investing in Oil https://energynewsbeat.co/invest/

Jim Burke, the CEO of Texas-based electricity provider Vistra, discusses the challenges of serving the state and U.S. markets at a time of expanding power demand from data centers and residential users. The Dallas Fed's Pia Orrenius and Garrett Golding explore with Burke what will be needed to keep up.

Cullum Clark, director of the Bush Institute–SMU Economic Growth Initiative and an adjunct economics professor at Southern Methodist University, discusses his recent report, "Build Homes, Expand Opportunity; Lessons from America's Fastest-Growing Cities" with the Dallas Fed's Pia Orrenius.

Texas oil and gas firms are feeling pessimistic about the upcoming year. In the latest Dallas Fed survey, energy firms reported lower production, increased costs and heightened uncertainty. Oil is a good chunk of the Texas economy, and the Texas economy is a good chunk of the U.S. economy — around 9%. Also on the show: auto parts manufacturer First Brands files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the USDA revives its farm-to-school grant program.

Texas oil and gas firms are feeling pessimistic about the upcoming year. In the latest Dallas Fed survey, energy firms reported lower production, increased costs and heightened uncertainty. Oil is a good chunk of the Texas economy, and the Texas economy is a good chunk of the U.S. economy — around 9%. Also on the show: auto parts manufacturer First Brands files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the USDA revives its farm-to-school grant program.

Texas is a leader in accepting credentials from for-profit teacher certification providers. Dallas Fed economist Christa Deneault's research examines how the Texas program stacks up with credentials earned through more conventional means. She discusses her findings with the Dallas Fed's Pia Orrenius.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Much from the Texas Legislature in special session including: Burrow's leadership appears to go very soft on Dem quorum busting in GOP Caucus meeting; House passes lower percentage for voter approval requirement for local tax increases, and; Abbott adds an item to the call that makes it appear an amendment to election law in the regular session from Rep. Shaheen may have given the Dems part of their goal of same day voter registration in some cases.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.The State of Texas, in socialist fashion, buys the Crockett and Menger hotels that sit next to the Alamo. Why, with all the great talent in Texas, did they have to partner with a hospitality firm out of Ohio!?Texas Service Sector and Retail reports from the Dallas Fed.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Texas Democrats were thwarted again Friday night as new Texas Congressional maps passed the Senate. Standard Dem-front groups such as LULAC file suit nastily claiming racism in the maps. Myra Flores call the Dems out for their empty and nasty claims of racism.Legislators are looking at new penalties for lawmaker who choose not to show up to work.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Anti-Wimp update: Fake cops get the full Anti-Wimp treatment in Houston.Media may not like it but legally, and that's his job, Paxton is correct: Attorney General Paxton Instructs Schools to Display the Ten Commandments in Accordance with Texas Law.Texas manufacturing sector is growing, reports the Dallas Fed. Dr Pepper to be split from Keurig and headquartered in Frisco.Trump taps Airbnb founder Joe Gebbia, Texan, to remake federal websites.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading. There was a lot of focus on trade-deal traction today, though headlines coming in are largely as expected. It was quiet on the US economic calendar, but July's Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprised with a positive headline

The Uninsurable Future: How Climate-Driven Insurance Risk is Reshaping Real Estate   The Canary in the CRE Coal Mine If insurance is the canary in the coal mine for climate risk, then the bird has stopped singing. That's the warning from Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and current Director of the Climate Risk Initiative at UC Berkeley. In a conversation that touches on reinsurance markets, mortgage delinquencies, lender behavior, and regulatory dysfunction, Jones laid out the most sobering climate-related CRE risk analysis to date: we are already living through a systemic insurance crisis—and commercial real estate is not exempt.   “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable areas in this country,” Jones warns.   From Homeowners to High-Rises: What the Data Shows Much of the early distress has been observed in the residential and small business markets, where data is more publicly available. A study by the Dallas Fed, cited by Jones, found a direct correlation between areas hardest hit by climate events and surging insurance premiums, non-renewals, and mortgage delinquencies.   But commercial real estate isn't insulated. While pricing data is less transparent due to looser filing requirements, Jones states, “everything that I've seen indicates that those [commercial] rates are going up too,” particularly in regions where catastrophic climate events are becoming more frequent and severe.   Take Florida. One of our clients' office tower's premiums jumped from $300,000 to $1.2 million in a single renewal cycle. That's straight off the bottom line. The hit is entirely non-accretive; it's pure cost.   The Feedback Loop: Insurance, Lending, and Liquidity As insurance availability shrinks and prices soar, lending dries up. Lenders want to see that there is property and casualty insurance yet, as it becomes harder to get, that has implications in credit markets… and flow-through implications to the real economy.   It's not just anecdotal. Jones references studies showing that banks are offloading loans insured by lower-rated, higher-risk insurers to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, effectively shifting the risk onto taxpayers. That means if a hurricane hits and the house is knocked down, there isn't insurance available, potentially because the insurance company went insolvent.   The trend is clear: insurance stress is bleeding into credit markets and weakening the foundations of the entire real estate financing stack.   The “Deregulation” Illusion Some states, like Florida, are trying to respond by loosening regulatory constraints to attract insurers. Jones is skeptical. “Florida rates are four times the national average,” he says. The state has adopted taxpayer-funded reinsurance schemes, weakened litigation protections, and allowed less-robust rating agencies to operate.   Still, “the national branded home insurers are not writing in Florida… they can't make a profit,” says Jones. “So even with all these changes, the background risk is too great.”   In short: deregulation cannot solve a fundamentally unprofitable underwriting environment driven by climate volatility.   Adaptation Isn't Being Priced In - Yet Jones is more optimistic about resilience measures. Home hardening, defensible space, and forest management, especially in wildfire-prone states like California, can materially reduce losses. Commercial insurers often have engineering staff to assess and recommend these strategies.   But the industry hasn't kept pace. “Insurers, by and large, are not accounting for property, community, and landscape-scale adaptation and resilience in their models,” Jones says. One exception is Colorado, which passed a law requiring insurers to factor in proven risk mitigation. This could prove to be a model for commercial markets, but it's early and insurers remain price takers in the face of mounting losses.   From Reinsurance to Municipal Bonds: Signals to Watch What market signals should CRE investors monitor? Jones suggests: Insurance pricing and non-renewals: leading indicators of distress. Reinsurance costs: though recently softening, they've trended upward for years. Lender behavior: especially offloading risky loans to agencies. Rating agency downgrades: particularly for municipalities facing severe climate risk. Housing market mispricing: First Street Foundation estimates as much as $1 trillion in residential overvaluation due to underpriced climate risk. Any of these could tip the balance in specific markets or signal a broader inflection point.   A Slow Collapse or a Sudden Shock? Is this a long-term crisis or a fast-moving one? “It's happening in real time now,” says Jones. “It's more likely that this will be a steady glide into uninsurability… as opposed to one catastrophic event that brings the whole house of cards down.”   Still, the metaphor is chilling. The systemic risks posed by climate-driven insurance failure are already manifesting across sectors. Whether the collapse is gradual or sudden, the endpoint is clear.   “There is no place in the United States where you have a ‘get out of climate change free' card,” Jones warns.   For CRE professionals, that means a hard reckoning is ahead – not just with climate, but with underwriting, capital access, and portfolio risk in a fundamentally altered landscape.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Man who is alleged to have fallen asleep and rammed his 18-wheeler into others, killing five and injuring more, on I-20 near Terrell this weekend appears to be a communist who likely obtained his place here illegally, reports Current Revolt. Given what is know about this guy, his being here is an indictment of our immigration system.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Another coveted Texas Senate seat will be open next year as Sen. Birdwell will not seek reelection. Also, Abbott calls Special Election for Texas Senate District 9, Schatzline drops out of race as Wambsganss jumps in.Verbal sniping on the Lubbock County Commissioners Court has been going on for a long time and it is due to two simple things I explain.Dallas Fed says Texas manufacturing sector mostly unchanged from May survey.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq setting new record closes. It was a fairly quiet session, though there were a few trade headlines of note. It was a fairly light economic day today, with June's Dallas Fed manufacturing just a bit weaker than forecast.

In this episode of the Investing in Integrity podcast, Ross Overline, CEO and co-founder of Scholars of Finance, sits down with Britt Harris. Britt is a legendary investor, financial leader, and coach. He has managed over $500 billion in AUM over his career. You will learn why true leadership in finance goes beyond technical expertise—it requires wisdom, integrity, and a commitment to serving others. Britt has managed over $500 billion across top institutions like Bridgewater and Texas Teachers. They explore the power of truth in leadership, the importance of values-driven decision-making, and how financial professionals can create a lasting positive impact. Britt shares insights on developing wisdom, building strong organizational cultures, and aligning actions with enduring principles. Tune in for timeless insights on leadership, character, and ethical success in finance.Meet Britt Harris:Britt Harris is a renowned investment leader and educator who has served as CIO or CEO for eight different investment firms, managing over $500 billion throughout his career. As the only executive to serve as CEO across all major asset categories - including Verizon (corporate), Texas Teachers (public), Bridgewater (hedge funds), and UTIMCO (university endowments) - Harris brings unique insight into leadership and financial stewardship. He founded the prestigious Titans of Investing program, which has trained over 1,000 graduates across 35 states and 14 countries, collectively creating 41 businesses valued at over $5 billion. His extensive experience includes serving on advisory boards for the New York Stock Exchange and Dallas Fed, advising five different countries on financial markets, and earning three lifetime achievement awards. 

Partners at 1789 Capital Donald Trump Jr. and Omeed Malik are betting on building the “Amazon of guns” through GrabAGun's SPAC deal. Both discuss their “ideological investments” and the future of conservatism, and Trump Jr. weighs in on his father's $TRUMP meme coin. After Lester Holt hosted his last Nightly News, Tom Llamas stepped into the role. Llamas explains how he sees his role as a mainstream journalist in the current news environment. Plus, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan have spoken out on inflation, Neuralink has raised $650m in fresh capital, and CNBC's Courtney Reagan itemizes the costs of tariffs in retail.  Donald Trump Jr. & Omeed Malik - 14:30Courtney Reagan - 38:33Tom Llamas - 45:37 In this episode:Donald J. Trump Jr., @DonaldJTrumpJrOmeed Malik, @RealOmeedMalikCourtney Reagan, @courtreaganBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. EconomyConsumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead.If the U.S. consumer breaks, it's game over.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says he expects sluggish growth but not a recession. Speaking with Sonali Basak at the Goldman Sachs Tenth Annual Leveraged Finance and Credit Conference in Dana Point, California, Kaplan also discusses the outlook for Fed monetary policy this year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jerry Pacheco, president of the Border Industrial Association in Santa Teresa, New Mexico, has been a guiding force behind the Santa Teresa Port of Entry, an alternative to the busy El Paso crossing nearby. He tells Dallas Fed economists Pia Orrenius and Isabel Brizuela how 12 miles of dirt highway eventually led to the bustling Santa Teresa commercial hub.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: A big deadline for the Texas House passed this morning and as usual, many good bills died because leadership waited until the very end of the session to get to work hearing and voting on bills. I review key items that failed and passed including: Texas bill allowing colleges to pay athletes OK'd in Senate Automatic Denial of Bail for Certain Violent Crimes Narrowly Fails in Texas House –  absences give Dems a big win that will cost lives Bill that holds local governments accountable to follow state law allowed to time-out in the House “The People's Veto” Approved by Texas Legislature Texas lawmakers say state documents must list biological sex (the only kind of “sex” there is!) Senate Passes Women's Bill of Rights “Anti-Red Flag Act” advances in House Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report on the Texas Service Sector and retail sales.Space historian Robert Zimmerman of BehindtheBlack.com joins us to explain what went right and wrong in yesterday evening's SpaceX Starship & Superheavy launch test from Starbase, Texas.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: It's the final days of the 89th Texas Legislature. Here are some of the late breaking items covered today: Texas Poised to Enforce Age Verification on Apple, Google App Stores House Approves Legislation to Protect Students From Sexual Content – or how the Leftist media characterizes it: Texas Legislature poised to implement sweeping restrictions on school libraries. $2.5 Billion Water Infrastructure Deal, Additional 20-Year Annual $1 Billion Struck Texas Legislature moves to observe daylight saving time year-round – federal law would have to change first Tort reform: New limits for personal injury and wrongful death lawsuits may become a reality in Texas. ERCOT would get a ‘kill switch' for large consumers under bill passed in House Democrats kill bill to stop bum encampments in Texas cities Dems run down the clock to defeat Texas ‘SAVE' act and Lege's most-restrictive abortion bill. – two important bills and who controls “the clock?” House leadership does. Leftist press pretends that “transgender” folk have special “rights” that Republicans are “targeting.“ Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas manufacturing production steady – Dallas Fed report.Texas Lottery scandal now includes guilty pleas in federal investigation. But lawmakers didn't have the guts to shut it all down.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Former Waco Mayor Malcolm Duncan describes the impact of the Fixer Upper phenomenon—and his early skepticism about the HGTV show's potential to raise the city's profile. Duncan and Dallas Fed economist Emily Kerr also discuss benefits reaped from Baylor University's growth and challenges faced in building a commercial hub squarely between Dallas–Fort Worth and Austin.

As the US economy faces a stagflationary shock, how will the Fed navigate this tricky environment? Rob Kaplan, the Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs and the former president of the Dallas Fed, shares his perspective on how monetary policymakers will navigate slower growth and stickier prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Taylor County Texas A&M AgriLife Extension agent Steve Estes discusses with Dallas Fed economist Laila Assanie the challenges of perpetually coping with little rain in the Big Country, where agriculture and ranching drive the area economy, including that of Abilene.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Executive Order on ticket scalping and the Dallas Fed Survey. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Shooting down drones over your property; competing tax cut ideas; Ivermectin over the counter, and; more from the 89th Texas Legislature. I explain why the Senate's focus on property tax reduction through increasing the homestead exemption is the better path from a philosophical point of view.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed reports the Texas Service Sector and Retail did well in February but with a very bad attitude!More hypocrisy from the Left and media reporters on the much vaunted, by them, “separation of church and state.” When it comes to using churches to stop the enforcement of laws Leftists dislike, then it's all well and good for government to hand out special accommodation to churches.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Governor Abbott has been sucked into two stories he'd rather have not had to deal with. He's there though and his get-out-in-front-of-it swings at bat are really weak on both stories.First is the Lottery Commission scandals – Abbott has chosen not to reign in the commission for some time despite widespread knowledge of bad actions. Today he asks the Texas Rangers to investigate – way too late and really off mark because the problems are more policy related than criminal. Abbott's own appointee as lottery commissioner has now resigned.And the ol' Colony Ridge development is back in the news: Colony Ridge targeted in Trump deportation push, Greg Abbott says. Abbott makes like he's getting tough on the place, built by big donors, but note the DPS sergeant who says they are doing what they've been doing for two years despite Abbott's get tough social media post.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed says Texas manufacturing took a dive in February. Apple announces new big server plant for Houston-area, and more business news.A&M system's list of 5 candidates for new Chief Aggie.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Evan Koenig is a former senior aide to the president of the Dallas Fed. Evan returns to the show to discuss, the ins and outs of nominal GDP targeting, the practical applications of NGDP targeting, the reasons the Fed should consider it for the framework review, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on October 29th, 2024 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:06) – Evan Koenig at the Fed (00:02:04) – Nominal GDP Targeting (00:06:22) – Why the Fed Didn't Consider Nominal GDP Targeting (00:17:25) – How to Explain Nominal GDP Targeting to the Public (00:23:10) – Main Arguments for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:52) – Practical Applications of Nominal GDP (00:47:19) – Nominal GDP Targeting and the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review (00:50:57) – Outro