Podcast appearances and mentions of dallas fed

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US faces a federal government shutdown as markets start to realise Trump has no problem being reckless and has no problem hurting his 'friends'..But first, there was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in USD terms. In fact these prices are now at their lowest level of 2025. But because the NZD is falling, the prices achieved actually rose about the same amount in local currency.In the US, the number of job openings in August were virtually unchanged from July at 7.2 mln as was expected.But the Chicago PMI fell again in September, well below market expectations that it would improve. And the dip was sharp, the most in three months.Also weaker was the Dallas Fed services sector with their retail sector retreating rather fast in an unusual move lower.Adding to the downbeat sentiment was the September report from the Conference Board showing consumers are glummer than at any time since the start of the year. A common theme in the survey responses is the impact of rising inflation.And the downbeat sentiment may well get worse, and quickly. The White House seems to relish a full government shutdown to start their fiscal year tomorrow with mass firings rather than furloughs. And Trump says some American cities he considers dangerous should become training grounds for American troops, proposing 'his' troops be used to fight other Americans in their home cities. It is getting toxic very fast there.For their economy, there is a real possibility now that this weekend's non-farm payrolls release will be cancelled because the department releasing it will be closed. If that turns out to be the case, it could mask some quite weak results. Analysts now expect less than a +50,000 gain.Financial markets are downplaying the risks of all this, mainly because there have been many 'shutdown' crises over the decades. But at least the earlier ones involved parties prepared to reach a deal. Maybe not this time.Across the Pacific in China, their official factory PMI contracted again. But even though it is the sixth straight monthly contraction, the pace of decline was the least in that time. (Their factory PMI rose in February and March, but only by marginal levels.) Their official services PMI for September is no longer expanding. These official PMIs have been more conservative than the private surveys (RatingDog, ex Caixin) probably because they have a heavier weighting to Chinese SOEs. The private ones are more attuned to private and foreign enterprises, surveyed by S&P Global, and they report a faster expanding factory sector, and solidly expanding services sector.Meanwhile, China has frozen imports of BHP iron ore in a pricing dispute. BHP is their third largest supplier after Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale.Taiwanese consumer sentiment rose in September, but to be fair the bar is low because it has been stunted since May.In Europe, Germany said their CPI inflation edged up to 2.4% in September, marginally above the August level. But ist was a rise that was slightly more than expected.In Australia, there were no surprises from their central bank which held its cash rate target at 3.6%. But even though this hold was all priced in, there was some surprising reaction in financial markets. Somehow the decision was regarded as 'hawkish' and the AUD rose and benchmark bond interest rates fell on the news. The strong currency remained although the bond move was later reversed. Air cargo volumes in August grew +4.1% globally, driven by a near +10% rise from a year ago in the Asia/Pacific region. But notably, North American air cargo volumes fell -2.1% on the same basis in August, the weakest global region. And the pattern was similar for passenger travel. Asia/Pacific and Latin America brought strong growth, underpinning a +4.6% expansion, but North America lagged here too, only up +0.5% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3846/oz, up +US$16 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is -50 USc softer however.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl and down more than -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -30 bps at 87.6 AUc and a new three year low. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,876 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Texas oil and gas firms are feeling pessimistic about the upcoming year. In the latest Dallas Fed survey, energy firms reported lower production, increased costs and heightened uncertainty. Oil is a good chunk of the Texas economy, and the Texas economy is a good chunk of the U.S. economy — around 9%. Also on the show: auto parts manufacturer First Brands files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the USDA revives its farm-to-school grant program.

Texas oil and gas firms are feeling pessimistic about the upcoming year. In the latest Dallas Fed survey, energy firms reported lower production, increased costs and heightened uncertainty. Oil is a good chunk of the Texas economy, and the Texas economy is a good chunk of the U.S. economy — around 9%. Also on the show: auto parts manufacturer First Brands files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the USDA revives its farm-to-school grant program.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold is soaring on US missteps, and oil is falling as demand falters while supply is rising fast.Overnight US data was mixed. August pending home sales came in a little better than expected, up +4.0% from July, but only up +3.8% from year ago levels which themselves were relatively stunted. Less than 20% of American realtors expect the next three months to improve.But the Dallas Fed factory survey reported a sharpish turn lower, a second consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. But they still have growth, just far less. New orders dipped again. Costs continue to rise faster than selling prices.The chances of a US federal government shutdown are rising with compromise no longer in anyone's vocabulary. Trump thinks no-one will blame him for his intransigence.And apparently, the next US tariff target is movie production - something both Australian and New Zealand creative industries will look at with trepidation.Singapore reported their producer prices rose. They grew by +1.1% in August from a year ago, after a -2.4% drop in the previous month. And this was their first producer price inflation since March 2025.Later today, China will release its August PMI data, the key releases before their Golden Week holiday break that starts tomorrow.In India, industrial production rose +4.0% in August from a year ago, slowing slightly from the upwardly revised 4.3% growth rate in July, but less than the expected +5% increase. Still, the result continued a reasonable first half of the year, showing that initial tariffs by the Americans did not have a significant immediate impact on their industrial activity.But today's big news will be the RBA's upcoming rate review. Analysts expect no change at 3.6%. Financial markets are of the same view with nothing priced in to secondary market wholesale rates. But the RBA will be weighing the impact of relatively strong labour markets, good economic growth, low budget deficits and a strong fiscal impulse, along with rising CPI inflation touching 3.0% in August. Waiting could leave them with a harder-to-control inflation problem, although to be fair, no-one expects a rise today even if many think it would be warranted and wise.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, down -5 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3830/oz, up +US$72 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver had yet another big spurt, now almost at US$47/oz. This latest surge puts the US gold stockpile at Fort Knox and the NY Fed now worth more than US$1 tln.American oil prices are down a sharpish -US$2 at just over US$63/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$67.50/bbl. With global demand wavering, the planned OPEC increase, plus the resumption of Iraqi oil from their Kurdistan region has traders talking about a glut.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 57.8 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -25 bps at 87.9 AUc and that is the lowest in three years. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,795 and up +3.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at under +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Texas is a leader in accepting credentials from for-profit teacher certification providers. Dallas Fed economist Christa Deneault's research examines how the Texas program stacks up with credentials earned through more conventional means. She discusses her findings with the Dallas Fed's Pia Orrenius.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Much from the Texas Legislature in special session including: Burrow's leadership appears to go very soft on Dem quorum busting in GOP Caucus meeting; House passes lower percentage for voter approval requirement for local tax increases, and; Abbott adds an item to the call that makes it appear an amendment to election law in the regular session from Rep. Shaheen may have given the Dems part of their goal of same day voter registration in some cases.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.The State of Texas, in socialist fashion, buys the Crockett and Menger hotels that sit next to the Alamo. Why, with all the great talent in Texas, did they have to partner with a hospitality firm out of Ohio!?Texas Service Sector and Retail reports from the Dallas Fed.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of mixed and confusing economic signals from the world's largest economy where scoring own-goals is becoming an embedded feature of their economic management.But first, there was an overnight Pulse dairy auction for both SMP and WMP and that delivered lower prices with the SMP price dropping -2.0% from the prior week's full dairy auction, and the WMP price down -1.1%In the US, financial markets are quite hesitant because Trump is attempting to fire a non-loyal Fed governor for made-up 'integrity' reasons (pot-kettle-black). Because she in Black, and a woman, Trump's vengeance is particularly pointed.in this case and contrasts starkly with how he treats Powell (which is also personal and isn't good either.) She hasn't been charged with anything let alone convicted, and legal action over the Presidential 'letter' will now follow. She is resisting the bullying. The USD slipped and long dated UST bonds posted losses as market unease spread.Overnight releases of American economic data was quite mixed. First, durable goods orders fell in July from June, down -2.8% and on top of the -9.4% fall in the June result. That takes the year-on-year July result to just a +3.5% rise, about what current inflation can account for. Non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods orders rose a little more than that, up +4.5% from a year ago, so that was positive. But they fell -8.0% in July from June.The Richmond Fed factory survey in the mid-Atlantic states remained negative in August, although not as much as the outsized July retreat. Factories in this region have been doing it tough since March 2025. Cost inflation is hitting them hard as a result of having to pay the tariff taxes. The average growth rate of prices paid increased notably, while growth in prices received was nearly unchanged in August.Yesterday we noted the negative Dallas Fed factory survey for Texas. Today the services survey for the same region was released and it reported a better expansion. But they reported the improvement as 'slight'.There was also only a slight change in consumer sentiment reported by the Conference Board for August. Rising worries about jobs and income were offset by more optimistic views of current and future business conditions, they said. Overall, consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months. Tariff-taxes are a key reason there is no improvement in this survey. Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2% in August, up from 5.7% in July.Once rare seven-year car loans are fast becoming the norm in the US. They're often the only way buyers can afford new vehicles, with the average vehicle sale prices surging +28% in five years to approach NZ$85,000. And tariffs will make than much worse. Bloomberg is reporting that in Q2-2025, seven-year vehicle loans represented 21% of all new-vehicle financing. Six-year loans, at one time considered the upper end of the range, are now the most common, accounting for 36%. Some buyers are even now going for eight-year loans.There was a large and well supported two year US Treasury bond auction overnight, resulting in a median yield of 3.60%, down from 3.87% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.North of the border, Canada released some business activity data for July, and both metrics rose and by more than expected. Their wholesale trade was up +1.3% from +0.7% in June, driven by stronger vehicle sales. They manufacturing sales rose +1.8% in July, an improvement from +0.3% in June. Transportation equipment, and the energy sector, provided the key boosts.Across the Pacific in South Korea, you may recall the huge jump in consumer sentiment in July after the peaceful resolution of the attempted executive coup there earlier in the year. The rule of law won. In August, that confidence level dropped sharply as things returned to normal. But to be fair is is still far higher than at any time in the past ten years - despite their ugly treatment by the Trump Administration.In Australia, Australia Post has temporarily partially suspended postal services to the US. All such deliveries now require full customs duties and declarations making the trade impractical for small value items and substantial jeopardy for the shipper. The disruption to such courier services is spreading to most Asian countries now.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,381/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1.50 to US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and little-changed from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,747 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Texas Democrats were thwarted again Friday night as new Texas Congressional maps passed the Senate. Standard Dem-front groups such as LULAC file suit nastily claiming racism in the maps. Myra Flores call the Dems out for their empty and nasty claims of racism.Legislators are looking at new penalties for lawmaker who choose not to show up to work.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Anti-Wimp update: Fake cops get the full Anti-Wimp treatment in Houston.Media may not like it but legally, and that's his job, Paxton is correct: Attorney General Paxton Instructs Schools to Display the Ten Commandments in Accordance with Texas Law.Texas manufacturing sector is growing, reports the Dallas Fed. Dr Pepper to be split from Keurig and headquartered in Frisco.Trump taps Airbnb founder Joe Gebbia, Texan, to remake federal websites.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading. There was a lot of focus on trade-deal traction today, though headlines coming in are largely as expected. It was quiet on the US economic calendar, but July's Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprised with a positive headline

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with talks are underway in Stockholm between the US and China over a trade/tariff deal. Prospects are not high.And the recent EU-US deal has the makings of unravelling. Both France and Germany are unhappy about the outcome, made worse by the US claiming verbally pharmaceuticals have been excluded when the EU negotiators said they were not excluded from the 15% written deal.The big casualty in all of these deals, including the Japanese one, is trust in the US. Smartarse public commenting by the US president - even some of his advisers - means the deals struck are unlikely to be respected by the US or trusted by the others. The result isn't "a deal", it is a fluid mess.New Zealand's situation in all this will be a footnote, probably sometime on Saturday.In the US, the Dallas Fed's factory survey improved sharply in July, but this was all about higher production. New orders are still contracting, even if at a slower rate. Elevated input price pressures continued in July. Improved sentiment is driving the raised output even in the absence of a pickup in new orders.Financial market eyes are now turning to Thursday's (NZT) US Federal Reserve meeting and decisions. Despite the overt Whitehouse pressure, financial market pricing shows virtually no-one is pricing in a rate cut.In Canada, wholesale sales came in better than expected, up +0.7% in June from May when a -0.2% retreat was anticipated. But despite that good recent gain, they will still be lower than in June 2024.Across the Pacific, from 2022 to 2024, Taiwanese consumer confidence rose. But since October 2024 it has been falling. However the July survey rose, the first break in the recent down-trend. It wasn't a big move from June, but they will take it.In China, they are taking something they don't want. Foreign direct investment recorded another net outflow in June, and a worse one than the highly unusual April net outflow. The reasonable start to 2025 is being undone faster now. In the six months to June they have had a net inflow of US$42.3 bln. In 2024 they had more than that in just the first three months and even that was much weaker than in 2023 (US$98 bln) or 2022 (US$112 bln). Fleeing investors isn't a good look for China.Indian industrial production expanded a rather weak +1.5% in June from a year ago, held back by surprisingly weak mining (coal) production.. In their factories however, the story is much better with manufacturing production us +3.9% from a year ago, a better rise than in May although less than the +4.5% expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, up +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,309/oz, down -US$27 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 at just on US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just under US$70/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -½c from yesterday and back to where it was a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,664 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The Uninsurable Future: How Climate-Driven Insurance Risk is Reshaping Real Estate   The Canary in the CRE Coal Mine If insurance is the canary in the coal mine for climate risk, then the bird has stopped singing. That's the warning from Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and current Director of the Climate Risk Initiative at UC Berkeley. In a conversation that touches on reinsurance markets, mortgage delinquencies, lender behavior, and regulatory dysfunction, Jones laid out the most sobering climate-related CRE risk analysis to date: we are already living through a systemic insurance crisis—and commercial real estate is not exempt.   “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable areas in this country,” Jones warns.   From Homeowners to High-Rises: What the Data Shows Much of the early distress has been observed in the residential and small business markets, where data is more publicly available. A study by the Dallas Fed, cited by Jones, found a direct correlation between areas hardest hit by climate events and surging insurance premiums, non-renewals, and mortgage delinquencies.   But commercial real estate isn't insulated. While pricing data is less transparent due to looser filing requirements, Jones states, “everything that I've seen indicates that those [commercial] rates are going up too,” particularly in regions where catastrophic climate events are becoming more frequent and severe.   Take Florida. One of our clients' office tower's premiums jumped from $300,000 to $1.2 million in a single renewal cycle. That's straight off the bottom line. The hit is entirely non-accretive; it's pure cost.   The Feedback Loop: Insurance, Lending, and Liquidity As insurance availability shrinks and prices soar, lending dries up. Lenders want to see that there is property and casualty insurance yet, as it becomes harder to get, that has implications in credit markets… and flow-through implications to the real economy.   It's not just anecdotal. Jones references studies showing that banks are offloading loans insured by lower-rated, higher-risk insurers to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, effectively shifting the risk onto taxpayers. That means if a hurricane hits and the house is knocked down, there isn't insurance available, potentially because the insurance company went insolvent.   The trend is clear: insurance stress is bleeding into credit markets and weakening the foundations of the entire real estate financing stack.   The “Deregulation” Illusion Some states, like Florida, are trying to respond by loosening regulatory constraints to attract insurers. Jones is skeptical. “Florida rates are four times the national average,” he says. The state has adopted taxpayer-funded reinsurance schemes, weakened litigation protections, and allowed less-robust rating agencies to operate.   Still, “the national branded home insurers are not writing in Florida… they can't make a profit,” says Jones. “So even with all these changes, the background risk is too great.”   In short: deregulation cannot solve a fundamentally unprofitable underwriting environment driven by climate volatility.   Adaptation Isn't Being Priced In - Yet Jones is more optimistic about resilience measures. Home hardening, defensible space, and forest management, especially in wildfire-prone states like California, can materially reduce losses. Commercial insurers often have engineering staff to assess and recommend these strategies.   But the industry hasn't kept pace. “Insurers, by and large, are not accounting for property, community, and landscape-scale adaptation and resilience in their models,” Jones says. One exception is Colorado, which passed a law requiring insurers to factor in proven risk mitigation. This could prove to be a model for commercial markets, but it's early and insurers remain price takers in the face of mounting losses.   From Reinsurance to Municipal Bonds: Signals to Watch What market signals should CRE investors monitor? Jones suggests: Insurance pricing and non-renewals: leading indicators of distress. Reinsurance costs: though recently softening, they've trended upward for years. Lender behavior: especially offloading risky loans to agencies. Rating agency downgrades: particularly for municipalities facing severe climate risk. Housing market mispricing: First Street Foundation estimates as much as $1 trillion in residential overvaluation due to underpriced climate risk. Any of these could tip the balance in specific markets or signal a broader inflection point.   A Slow Collapse or a Sudden Shock? Is this a long-term crisis or a fast-moving one? “It's happening in real time now,” says Jones. “It's more likely that this will be a steady glide into uninsurability… as opposed to one catastrophic event that brings the whole house of cards down.”   Still, the metaphor is chilling. The systemic risks posed by climate-driven insurance failure are already manifesting across sectors. Whether the collapse is gradual or sudden, the endpoint is clear.   “There is no place in the United States where you have a ‘get out of climate change free' card,” Jones warns.   For CRE professionals, that means a hard reckoning is ahead – not just with climate, but with underwriting, capital access, and portfolio risk in a fundamentally altered landscape.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Senate has agreed the Trump budget, but only after the Vice President broke a deadlock with a casting vote. Financial markets are wondering about the wisdom in all this with equities hesitating, bond yields turning up, and the USD drifting lower. To be fair, none of these movements are large today. But the implications of massively higher US debt levels are as is the opening of the magic-money accounting they have adopted. It will be the bond market that makes the practical judgement.First however, the overnight dairy auction came in as weak as the futures market suggested it might. The SMP price fell -1.7%, but only to match the prior week's Pulse event. However the more important WMP price fell -5.1% and back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year. One local reason may have been the sharp increase in volumes offered, +10,000 tonnes more than at the prior event two weeks ago, and +6.7% more than the event in the same week a year ago. This volume offer jump came as milk production rose in all key producing regions (except Australia).Overall, prices were down -4.1% in USD terms at this even, down -5.2% in NZD as the greenback weakens further.The price downshift will have analysts reaching for their pencils although it might be too soon for them to backtrack on their 2025/26 payout forecasts. Fonterra's current season results are pretty much locked in and will be reported in late September. But their new year may be off to a soft start.Last week, the US Redbook index was +4.9% higher than year ago levels but still in the easing trend that started in early April.The May level of job openings rose unexpectedly to more than 7.7 mln largely on a surge for foodservice jobs. Analysts didn't see this coming but perhaps they should have given the sharp ICE immigration crackdowns underway. These roles at these volumes will be hard to fill.The latest factory PMI report from the ISM shows a sector still in contraction, being led by weak new order inflows. The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version reported an expansion and a moderate one at that, But both noted rising inflation pressures.It appears that the expected rise in June car sales didn't occur, dipping to its slowest pace of the year.Apparently its a good time to be in the logistics sector in the US with inventory levels rising and supply chains being stressed. The Logistics Managers Index is running at an unusually high level.The Dallas Fed regional services survey reported a continuing contraction, although not as steep in June as May.And the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index was expected to bounce back in July but in fact it resumed the decline in a trend that started in December 2024.After falling to a recent low in April, Japanese consumer sentiment is on the rise again, back to where it was at the start of the year, but not yet back to 2024 levels. But at least it is rising.Yesterday we noted that the official factory PMI for China "improved" but was still showing a contraction. Today, the alternative Caixin factory PMI came in a little better than that, rising from May's tiney contraction to June's small expansion. These shifts don't mean a lot, but at least they are going in an improved direction. The Caixin survey noted "Higher new order inflows supported a renewed rise in production. That said, the rate at which new orders expanded was only marginal amid subdued exports." Trump's trade war may have kneecapped Chinese growth but it hasn't knocked them over.Overnight the ECB released the results of its May survey of consumer inflation expectations and they dipped to 2.8% when a small rise was expected. Consumers apparently thought inflation was running at 3.1% over the past 12 months. Separately the EU released its June CPI data and that shows it running at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May.In Australia, large parts of the east cost is hunkering down for a lashing of strong winds and heavy rain. And that will include Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, and up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer from yesterday, up +50 USc at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is up the same at just over US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down the same at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,292 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just over +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Man who is alleged to have fallen asleep and rammed his 18-wheeler into others, killing five and injuring more, on I-20 near Terrell this weekend appears to be a communist who likely obtained his place here illegally, reports Current Revolt. Given what is know about this guy, his being here is an indictment of our immigration system.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Another coveted Texas Senate seat will be open next year as Sen. Birdwell will not seek reelection. Also, Abbott calls Special Election for Texas Senate District 9, Schatzline drops out of race as Wambsganss jumps in.Verbal sniping on the Lubbock County Commissioners Court has been going on for a long time and it is due to two simple things I explain.Dallas Fed says Texas manufacturing sector mostly unchanged from May survey.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq setting new record closes. It was a fairly quiet session, though there were a few trade headlines of note. It was a fairly light economic day today, with June's Dallas Fed manufacturing just a bit weaker than forecast.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget debate has financial markets on edge.But first up today, the Chicago PMI did not report the expected modest bounceback in June from the very weak May result. In fact is stayed in a severe contraction, disappointing everyone involved. It's been nearly three years since they have had any regular expansion and 2025 looks like it is shaping up the be the worst of the three.The Dallas Fed's factory survey for June was weak as well featuring shrinking new order levels. At least it was little-changed from May.As you read this, the US Senate is debating, and about to vote, on the big Trump budget bill. After years of complaining about US deficit spending and refusing to move the debt ceiling law, they are weighing whether to accede to Trump's demand to give him a free pass on both, including 'hiding' US$3.8 tln of tax cut costs. If they pass the budget, it is likely the bond market will deliver a thumbs down response, one that will affect global financial markets.On the US tariff trade bullying, there are few negotiations going well at present, for any of the parties involved.In Canada, they seem to have conceded the digital services tax issue to try and make progress on bigger issues. But the DST is still a live issue in the UK-US talks.Meanwhile, things are softening in India too. Their industrial production was up +1.2% in May from the same month in 2024, their weakest expansion in nine months and well weaker than expected.In China, there were no surprises and little movement in their official PMIs for June. Their factory sector contracted very marginally - again - and the services sector expanded marginally, also again. Basically they describe an economy marking time. But also one resilient to the trade shocks thrown at it which were designed to throw it off balance. That just hasn't happened, yet anyway.German inflation came in at 2.0% in June, a touch less than anticipated and little-different from April and May's 2.1% level. As small as it was, they weren't expecting a dip. Food prices there rose a modest +2.0% but keeping a lid on other rises was the -3.5% drop in energy prices.In Australia, Cotality/CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose +0.6% in June from May, up marginally from the prior month but it is the strongest monthly gain since June 2024. Improved market sentiment in most major cities was behind the firming and active first home buyers are behind that. On a yearly basis, national home values climbed 2.7%. Meanwhile, rental growth continued to ease, with national rents up +3.4% over the past 12 months, the slowest annual increase since early 2021.Global air cargo demand rose +2.2% in May from a year ago, up +3.0% for international airfreight. The Asia/Pacific volumes were up a very healthy +8.2% on the same basis, no doubt related to the rush to beat US tariff deadlines. These overall volumes would have been better if the North American components hadn't been so weak (+-5.8%).Meanwhile, May air passenger travel rose +5.0%, up +6.7% for international travel and up +13.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. The only region to decline was North America (-0.5%) and mostly because of weak domestic travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,2952/oz, and up +US$19 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally softer from yesterday at just under US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is down -US$1, now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,683 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

In this episode of the Investing in Integrity podcast, Ross Overline, CEO and co-founder of Scholars of Finance, sits down with Britt Harris. Britt is a legendary investor, financial leader, and coach. He has managed over $500 billion in AUM over his career. You will learn why true leadership in finance goes beyond technical expertise—it requires wisdom, integrity, and a commitment to serving others. Britt has managed over $500 billion across top institutions like Bridgewater and Texas Teachers. They explore the power of truth in leadership, the importance of values-driven decision-making, and how financial professionals can create a lasting positive impact. Britt shares insights on developing wisdom, building strong organizational cultures, and aligning actions with enduring principles. Tune in for timeless insights on leadership, character, and ethical success in finance.Meet Britt Harris:Britt Harris is a renowned investment leader and educator who has served as CIO or CEO for eight different investment firms, managing over $500 billion throughout his career. As the only executive to serve as CEO across all major asset categories - including Verizon (corporate), Texas Teachers (public), Bridgewater (hedge funds), and UTIMCO (university endowments) - Harris brings unique insight into leadership and financial stewardship. He founded the prestigious Titans of Investing program, which has trained over 1,000 graduates across 35 states and 14 countries, collectively creating 41 businesses valued at over $5 billion. His extensive experience includes serving on advisory boards for the New York Stock Exchange and Dallas Fed, advising five different countries on financial markets, and earning three lifetime achievement awards. 

Partners at 1789 Capital Donald Trump Jr. and Omeed Malik are betting on building the “Amazon of guns” through GrabAGun's SPAC deal. Both discuss their “ideological investments” and the future of conservatism, and Trump Jr. weighs in on his father's $TRUMP meme coin. After Lester Holt hosted his last Nightly News, Tom Llamas stepped into the role. Llamas explains how he sees his role as a mainstream journalist in the current news environment. Plus, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan have spoken out on inflation, Neuralink has raised $650m in fresh capital, and CNBC's Courtney Reagan itemizes the costs of tariffs in retail.  Donald Trump Jr. & Omeed Malik - 14:30Courtney Reagan - 38:33Tom Llamas - 45:37 In this episode:Donald J. Trump Jr., @DonaldJTrumpJrOmeed Malik, @RealOmeedMalikCourtney Reagan, @courtreaganBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. EconomyConsumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead.If the U.S. consumer breaks, it's game over.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says he expects sluggish growth but not a recession. Speaking with Sonali Basak at the Goldman Sachs Tenth Annual Leveraged Finance and Credit Conference in Dana Point, California, Kaplan also discusses the outlook for Fed monetary policy this year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jerry Pacheco, president of the Border Industrial Association in Santa Teresa, New Mexico, has been a guiding force behind the Santa Teresa Port of Entry, an alternative to the busy El Paso crossing nearby. He tells Dallas Fed economists Pia Orrenius and Isabel Brizuela how 12 miles of dirt highway eventually led to the bustling Santa Teresa commercial hub.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: A big deadline for the Texas House passed this morning and as usual, many good bills died because leadership waited until the very end of the session to get to work hearing and voting on bills. I review key items that failed and passed including: Texas bill allowing colleges to pay athletes OK'd in Senate Automatic Denial of Bail for Certain Violent Crimes Narrowly Fails in Texas House –  absences give Dems a big win that will cost lives Bill that holds local governments accountable to follow state law allowed to time-out in the House “The People's Veto” Approved by Texas Legislature Texas lawmakers say state documents must list biological sex (the only kind of “sex” there is!) Senate Passes Women's Bill of Rights “Anti-Red Flag Act” advances in House Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report on the Texas Service Sector and retail sales.Space historian Robert Zimmerman of BehindtheBlack.com joins us to explain what went right and wrong in yesterday evening's SpaceX Starship & Superheavy launch test from Starbase, Texas.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the trade chaos and tariff-war skirmishes have markets worldwide watching for inflation signals as much as growth signals.First, in the US their Redbook retail index was up +6.1% last week from the same week a year ago, driven increasingly by tariff-tax price increases, which is why this metric is diverging so much from the formal retail sales volume data.American mortgage applications fell last week from the prior week. That is consistent with the benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rising, now almost touching 7% again.The Richmond Fed's regional factory survey came in negative again in May with activity slowing and new order levels still quite weak. The service sector report for the same mid-Atlantic region was weaker too. In both cases they recorded price pressures over +6%.The Dallas Fed services survey was just as negative, in fact even more so. Input prices are a real issue here too, over 5%..The well-supported US Treasury 5 year bond auction continued the trend of bidders wanting and getting higher risk premiums. This one delivered a median yield of 4.01%, up from 3.93% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.The minutes of the May 8 (NZT) Fed meeting released overnight revealed policymakers are uncertain on how to assess the future risks of inflation and their labour market, and how they can meet their dual mandate when forces are pushing in different directions. They seem to see the inflation risks are the key priority. They are also watching the USD depreciation because that too brings inflation risks. For them, it is a waiting game.India's April industrial production expansion slowed from March, but not by as much as was expected. It seems to be settling in at an under +3% rate which is far more modest than the overall economic expansion there. India's economic rise isn't really being built on manufacturing prowess. Of course the trade and tariff-war backdrop won't be helping.Euro area inflation expectations are rising again, and came in at 3.1% in the latest survey (in April) for the ECB, results they won't have liked. These expectations are back to early 2024 levels, unwinding the progress the ECB policymakers had thought they had won.In Australia, their monthly inflation indicator, also for April, shows it stuck at 2.4%. A small easing was expected but didn't eventuate. But 2.4% isn't a killer level and probably doesn't change expectations that the RBA will keep reducing its cash rate target, currently at 3.85%, by another -25 bps at their next meeting on July 8, 2025. A lot could change in between however, and analysts will be watching for upside risks.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.48%, and up +4 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,296/oz, and down -US$6 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just on US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down at 59.6 USc, a small +10 bps rise from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at just under 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 67.9 and back up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,462 and down -2.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: It's the final days of the 89th Texas Legislature. Here are some of the late breaking items covered today: Texas Poised to Enforce Age Verification on Apple, Google App Stores House Approves Legislation to Protect Students From Sexual Content – or how the Leftist media characterizes it: Texas Legislature poised to implement sweeping restrictions on school libraries. $2.5 Billion Water Infrastructure Deal, Additional 20-Year Annual $1 Billion Struck Texas Legislature moves to observe daylight saving time year-round – federal law would have to change first Tort reform: New limits for personal injury and wrongful death lawsuits may become a reality in Texas. ERCOT would get a ‘kill switch' for large consumers under bill passed in House Democrats kill bill to stop bum encampments in Texas cities Dems run down the clock to defeat Texas ‘SAVE' act and Lege's most-restrictive abortion bill. – two important bills and who controls “the clock?” House leadership does. Leftist press pretends that “transgender” folk have special “rights” that Republicans are “targeting.“ Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas manufacturing production steady – Dallas Fed report.Texas Lottery scandal now includes guilty pleas in federal investigation. But lawmakers didn't have the guts to shut it all down.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a relief rally is underway on Wall Street, responding to the delays in tariffs by the US on EU goods.But first, an update of the overnight dairy Pulse auction where prices for both SMP and WMP slipped although less than the futures market had suggested. The WMP was down -2.7% in USD from the prior week's full event, and a bit more in NZD. To be fair both prices had risen sharply since April but this pullback still leaves it in a rising trend despite today's adjustment.Data releases resumed in the US after their weekend holiday with durable goods orders pulling back in April after the unusually strong March gains. The pullback was largely in line with what was expected however, -6.3% lower than the prior month but up +2.7% from a year ago. Perhaps worryingly, excluding aircraft orders, nomn-defence capital goods barely budged in April, a sign that boardrooms remain skittish about future investment.That was matched by the Dallas Fed's May factory survey where activity was reported flat with a decline in new orders.But consumers seem happier, according to the Conference Board's May survey of consumer sentiment. But it was a survey taken before the latest US threats on the EU, so there is a sense of 'relief rally' here after the China tariff pullback. However, despite the month-on-month gain, this indicator is still tracking lower on the longer term, still lower than year-ago levels.Sentiment will be challenged again soon. There were a couple of housing indicators out overnight, and both recorded falls in American house prices. The FHA one was spun as an improvement, but it wasn't. The S&P/Case-Shiller one was a gain but a tiny one and the least since mid-2023.The bond market isn't feeling any better. The latest US Treasury 2 year auction, although as well supported as usual, brought a median yield of 3.90%, up from 3.74% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.And we can note that pricing for Trump Media shares, a marketplace that basically attracts investors who are supporters, is doing terribly. TMTG is down -11% today, down -33% so far this year, down more than -50% from a year ago. To rescue itself, it says it wants to raise US$2.5 bln to shift into crypto investing. It is an idea not going down well with shareholders.Across the border, core Canadian business activity is struggling a bit too. April wholesale trade was down -0.9% from March. That is kind of a lot for a one-month impact, one that records the initial tariff-war skirmishes.Across the Pacific in China, profits at industrial firms rose +1.4% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same four months in 2024, picking up from +0.8% growth in the January–March period. For April alone, that was a rise of +5.2% from April 2024. Having noted that, April 2024 was a weak base. Still, given the trade challenges, and that China's factories are still very export oriented and vulnerable to trade war risks, this has to be seen as a good result in the circumstances.And we should start to keep an eye on China's carmakers. It is attracting increasing scrutiny because the economic fundamentals seem to be leaking away and quite fast. It could be another 'property development' industry failure, and could have just as large consequences if it wobbles too. They have no problem making cars, and good ones. But not only are they making more than the world needs, there are serious questions as to whether they can sell them for more than they cost to make.We should probably note that South Korean consumer sentiment jumped in May, rising back to levels that were common in November 2024 and prior. The ugly confusion period when its president went full-Trump and tried a palace coup (which resulted in impeachment, one that was upheld by the courts) is now behind it and Koreans are breathing easier. The rule of law won against a power grab. South Koreans will vote in a snap presidential election on Tuesday, June 3.And still in South Korea, they should join the CPTPP and diversify its trade as part of the bloc in the face of US uncertainties, a senior trade ex-minister is saying. (New Zealand runs a huge trade deficit with Korea.)In the EU, consumer and business sentiment basically held steady in May, according to the latest update. The trade wars are not yet unnerving the Europeans.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.44%, and down -6 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,302/oz, and down -US$38 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$60.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down at 59.5 USc, a -½c retreat from yesterday at this time as commodity currencies are out of favour today. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at just on 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.6 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,309 and up another +1.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.2%.Check back with us at 2pm for the RBNZ's May Monetary Policy Statement and OCR review. As you will knwo by now, 'everyone' expects a -25 bps cut. But the outlook from there is reasonably clouded, so Governor Hawkesby's analysis at 3pm is keenly awaited. We will have full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Former Waco Mayor Malcolm Duncan describes the impact of the Fixer Upper phenomenon—and his early skepticism about the HGTV show's potential to raise the city's profile. Duncan and Dallas Fed economist Emily Kerr also discuss benefits reaped from Baylor University's growth and challenges faced in building a commercial hub squarely between Dallas–Fort Worth and Austin.

As the US economy faces a stagflationary shock, how will the Fed navigate this tricky environment? Rob Kaplan, the Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs and the former president of the Dallas Fed, shares his perspective on how monetary policymakers will navigate slower growth and stickier prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Taylor County Texas A&M AgriLife Extension agent Steve Estes discusses with Dallas Fed economist Laila Assanie the challenges of perpetually coping with little rain in the Big Country, where agriculture and ranching drive the area economy, including that of Abilene.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Executive Order on ticket scalping and the Dallas Fed Survey. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Goldman Sachs Group Vice Chairman Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president, talks about impact of Trump’s impending tariffs and the outlook for the Fed. He speaks with Bloomberg's Julie Fine in Dallas.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ray Perryman, a Waco-based economist who's opined on the Texas economy for more than four decades, discusses his hits and misses as well as what lies ahead with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius.

Enrique Dussel Peters, the coordinator of the Center for Chinese–Mexican Studies at the Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México, and Dallas Fed economist Jesus Cañas discuss challenges to the triangular trade relationship between the U.S., Mexico and China at a time of rising tensions.

US President Trump clarified that there will be a 10+10 tariff on China for a total of 20% additional tariffs and that the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect on March 4th.US stocks closed notably in the red with the Nasdaq 100 (-2.8%) the clear laggard as the Technology sector was heavily pressured alongside significant losses in NVIDIA (-8.6%).APAC stocks declined with heavy pressure seen at month-end following the sell-off on Wall St with global risk sentiment hit by tariff threats and following a slump in NVIDIA shares post-earnings.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.0% on Thursday.Bitcoin continued its slump and dipped under USD 80,000 after falling more than 25% from its record high.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, CPI & Unemployment, French/Italian CPI, US PCE & Dallas Fed, Canadian GDP, ECB SCE, Comments from BoE's Ramsden, Earnings from Fubo, Holcim, BASF, Allianz & Rightmove, Credit Reviews for Germany & France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are in the red, but with sentiment off lows; ES/NQ gain ahead of US PCE.USD remains underpinned by trade angst; Antipodeans lag given the risk-tone.Bonds bid after Trump's latest on tariffs & tech pressure, though benchmarks are off highs.Commodities lower on month end and ahead of weekend uncertainty.Looking ahead, German CPI US PCE & Dallas Fed, Canadian GDP. Credit Reviews for Germany & France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Shooting down drones over your property; competing tax cut ideas; Ivermectin over the counter, and; more from the 89th Texas Legislature. I explain why the Senate's focus on property tax reduction through increasing the homestead exemption is the better path from a philosophical point of view.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed reports the Texas Service Sector and Retail did well in February but with a very bad attitude!More hypocrisy from the Left and media reporters on the much vaunted, by them, “separation of church and state.” When it comes to using churches to stop the enforcement of laws Leftists dislike, then it's all well and good for government to hand out special accommodation to churches.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Governor Abbott has been sucked into two stories he'd rather have not had to deal with. He's there though and his get-out-in-front-of-it swings at bat are really weak on both stories.First is the Lottery Commission scandals – Abbott has chosen not to reign in the commission for some time despite widespread knowledge of bad actions. Today he asks the Texas Rangers to investigate – way too late and really off mark because the problems are more policy related than criminal. Abbott's own appointee as lottery commissioner has now resigned.And the ol' Colony Ridge development is back in the news: Colony Ridge targeted in Trump deportation push, Greg Abbott says. Abbott makes like he's getting tough on the place, built by big donors, but note the DPS sergeant who says they are doing what they've been doing for two years despite Abbott's get tough social media post.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed says Texas manufacturing took a dive in February. Apple announces new big server plant for Houston-area, and more business news.A&M system's list of 5 candidates for new Chief Aggie.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Evan Koenig is a former senior aide to the president of the Dallas Fed. Evan returns to the show to discuss, the ins and outs of nominal GDP targeting, the practical applications of NGDP targeting, the reasons the Fed should consider it for the framework review, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on October 29th, 2024 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:06) – Evan Koenig at the Fed (00:02:04) – Nominal GDP Targeting (00:06:22) – Why the Fed Didn't Consider Nominal GDP Targeting (00:17:25) – How to Explain Nominal GDP Targeting to the Public (00:23:10) – Main Arguments for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:52) – Practical Applications of Nominal GDP (00:47:19) – Nominal GDP Targeting and the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review (00:50:57) – Outro

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading as stocks ended the day just off worst levels. A bit of an up-and-down day today with the market unable to translate early strength into a bounce, but also saw limited downside despite some sharp selling pressure late last week. In macro news, Dallas Fed manufacturing missed consensus and saw rising cost pressures along with some negative commentary around immigration and trade worries.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: The Texas Supreme Court slaps down the libs at the State Bar of Texas for going after Texas Attorney General staff over 2020 election lawsuits filed by the state. The state bar libs didn't like the politics of Paxton's office and so, as they've done in other states, went after lawyers on “disciplinary” charges that were spurious and unmerited. Read the full decision here.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.The late Richard Cavazos, General of the U.S. Army, is being posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor for actions on the battlefield in Korea. He was a graduate of Texas Tech and his brother Lauro was president of Texas Tech as well as Secretary of Education under President Reagan.Texas sales tax revenue was $4.1 billion in December, an increase below the general inflation rate.The Dallas Fed releases the Texas Service and Retail Sector report for December.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Legislature 2025: Rep. Brian Harrison, HD10, explains why Texas public colleges and universities need reining in and why the Univ. of Texas system may need a big budget cut from state appropriations. He also repeats what I have said for many years: The Leftism on campus has been allowed by Republicans. That and much more legislative news from gun rights to campaign finance law to election integrity.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed is out with the Texas manufacturing, service, and retail sector outlook reports.2024 A&M vs. Texas tickets most expensive college football game.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: A new New York Times / Siena College poll shows Ted Cruz up over Allred just after a Dem-backed poll, made to help raise money, claimed the two were tied as of Saturday. Gromer Jeffers, Jr., of the Dallas Morning News, sure has it right: After spending the entire campaign acting as if he's not part of the Lefty-Harris Democrat Party, Allred went all out to embrace Harris and his liberal Democrat roots in the big Harris Rally in Houston this weekend.Despite all the glowing press reports of the huge Harris rally in Houston, was it really what it seemed?Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Survey headlines with good news but the internals don't really support that good news.Citizens legally petition for a recall election of the entire city leadership of San Benito – mayor and all of the council.Murdered little girl's family released a letter over the Roberson death penalty case which chastises the Texas House committee's pro-innocence dog-and-pony show. See the full letter here, on X.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates. www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: New polling is interesting and shows that Texas Republicans could lose the U.S. Senate race. Democrat liberal Colin Allred is polling neck and neck with Ted Cruz. I give a full rundown of the detail of the poll done by Public Policy Polling.All the free media publicity around man-child Beto Pancho O'Rourke had Republicans working but this time around we don't see the same work ethic yet Allred is polling better than did Beto.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas manufacturing down; service sector okay but relative flat, and; retail continues its contraction.The longshoreman strike shows what is, and has always been, wrong with the labor union movement: Unions have always been as greedy as they and their allies have painted business owners or “capital” to be. Press reports say that ILA [union] members currently have a base salary of $81,000, but large amounts of overtime can allow some to reach $200,000 for manual labor jobs.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Sheila Olmstead, a professor specializing in environmental policy at the Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy at Cornell University, discusses with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius the competing demands for water in Texas and the challenges a growing economy poses.

Kunal Patel, Dallas Federal Reserve, joins Jason Spiess, founder, The Crude Life to review the latest energy survey and discuss their upcoming Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand in November. The Dallas Fed conducts a quarterly survey of about 200 oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District—Texas, southern New [...]

What is a soft landing, and how do we know if one is possible? In this episode, St. Louis Fed Economic Policy Advisor Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría unpacks that question and explains the importance of the Beveridge curve, an economic indicator that represents the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate. She'll also discuss how a historic change in job openings prompted her and a colleague from the Dallas Fed to explore how the Beveridge curve could be expanded to analyze whether a soft landing is possible.

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is the Senior Vice President and the Senior Advisor to the President of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan. Sam is a longtime veteran of the Federal Reserve System and has also previously served at the Minneapolis and Chicago Federal Reserve banks. Sam joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Treasury market resiliency issues, the floor system, the Friedman Rule, bank deposits, the monetary policy implications of labor migration across the United States, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Sam's Dallas Fed profile Sam's website   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Customer Settlement Risk Externality at US Securities Central Counterparties* by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability* by Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, and Joshua Younger   *Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration* by Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *Is a Treasury Central Clearing Mandate the Path to Increased Central Clearing?* by Marta Chaffee and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *The Netting Efficiencies of Marketwide Central Clearing* by Michael Fleming and Frank Keane   *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule* - A speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at the 2023 European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:31) – Sam's Wide-Ranging Career Path   (00:11:08) – The Customer Settlement Risk Externality   (00:14:30) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market   (00:18:38) – The Importance and Effectiveness of Central Clearing   (00:26:50) – The History and Role of FICC   (00:32:27) – All-to-all Trades as a Path to Reforming the Treasury Market   (00:36:52) – The Future Timeline for Central Clearing   (00:39:07) – *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule*   (00:46:52) – *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability*   (00:52:21) – The Importance of Labor Migration for Monetary Policy   (00:59:42) – Outro

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: There is much talk and action about the primary Texas electric grid, ERCOT, and our ability to adapt to accommodate massive growth in the state. But, on that very subject, the Houston Chronicle editorial board shows most all that is wrong with Democrats on issues of business and economics – the same error that has existed my entire life. I explain on the show.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report shows no improvement in the Texas manufacturing sector.U.S. Supreme Court to take up challenge to ban on sex-change drugs and procedures for youth and children, minors, in the next term.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Result review of yesterday's party primary runoff elections. There was, overall, good news on statehouse races for conservatives but a few disappointments.With the help of Jefferson County Democrats, the Dem sheriff was a big backer, Drinker of the House Dade Phelan got a narrow win – that's somehow appropriate for a man committed to empowering Democrats in the Texas House and who won the speaker's gavel by doing a deal for Dem support.Rep. Tom Oliverson says the race for speaker begins today.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report: Growth resumes in Texas service sector, but outlooks continue to worsen.Coverage of more storm damage across Texas last night.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The entertainment from the US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey comments did not disappoint. Several would be met with a disparaging “OK, boomer” if only the TikTok generation read the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Today's anecdotes come in the form of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. These comments are indirect quotes, and sanitization reduces entertainment value. Remarks on prices and pricing power are still likely to be investors' focus.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: It may be quiet where you are but in some places this is a BIG election day – it's party primary runoff day. The direction of the Texas House and more may be set today. I review some of the key races to watch around the Lone Star State.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report: Texas manufacturing activity weakened in May.The Republican Party of Texas has elected a new chairman and vice chairman as well as adopted a rule for closed primary election. More. Congratulations to new chairman Abraham George and vice chairman D'rinda Randall.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Stocks close mixed; PepsiCo blames higher interest rates and lower savings; Dallas Fed president says no rush to cut rates; December inflation numbers revised lower.