Podcast appearances and mentions of dallas fed

Taylor County Texas A&M AgriLife Extension agent Steve Estes discusses with Dallas Fed economist Laila Assanie the challenges of perpetually coping with little rain in the Big Country, where agriculture and ranching drive the area economy, including that of Abilene.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Executive Order on ticket scalping and the Dallas Fed Survey. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is bracing for the US to start a US$1.4 tln trade war. Tomorrow. The US says it is ready to start hostilities, supposedly with 20% across-the-board levies. Other governments have their retaliation plans ready. Americans are rushing to buy cars they can afford.But first, the overnight dairy auction came in better than the derivatives market had signaled, with an overall rose of +1.1% in USD terms, up +3.2% in NZD terms. WMP prices held steady and avoided the expected dip. SMP prices rose more than expected. But volumes were light, as expected in this part of the dairy season, but actually lower than this time last year. Keeping demand up was bidding from China, while the recent new interest from Europe basically held. Nothing today will change current farmgate milk price forecasts.In the US, retail demand is softening, with their Redbook survey off its peaks and back to average levels since October 2023. That is a notable drop from the November expansion.There were two American factory PMI surveys out overnight. The widely-watched ISM one contracted. This is a turn from an expansion and is not unexpected, but the size of the shift was. New order flows were weak, and the mood is turning even weaker.The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit one fell too, and quite sharply, but not yet into contraction territory. But this one reported a big jump - an outsized jump - in input prices, surely a sign of what is to come. Firms were only able to pass on some of that, but even so it was at a two-year high.American job openings in February fell by -194,000 to 7.57 mln from an upwardly revised 7.76 mln in January and below market expectations of 7.63 mln. Quits fell too as Americans prioritised holding on to the jobs they have.The Dallas Fed services survey reported a notable contraction, with perceptions of broader business conditions worsening in March.And that downshift was also picked up in the RCM/TIPP economic optimism survey which was expected to rise, but in fact fell in April, and to a six month low.In China, although still modest, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose in March from February's small positive, with a result that was better than market expectations. This marked the highest reading since last November, with output growth accelerating on the back of a sustained rise in new orders amid better demand conditions.The EU March CPI inflation rate eased slightly to 2.2%, to a marginally lower level than expected. Lower energy costs are restraining this indicator.In Australia, February retail sales were ho-hum, up +0.2% from January. That puts them essentially unchanged from the same month in 2024. So after inflation, that means they are -2.4% lower on a volume basis.And as expected, the RBA sat pat with its cash rate target at 4.1%. But once the Federal election is out of the way, markets expect them to cut the policy rate by -25 bps on May 20, 2025.Global air cargo demand is now coming off the boil as trade uncertainties build. The dip at that point wasn't large and it is still ahead year-on-year but with both US and European demand now negative on the year-ago basis, and the Asia expansion slipping rather quickly, it won't be long before we are reporting air cargo activity shrinking.Global air passenger demand held up in February, with the impetus slowed notably. International demand is holding up better than domestic, and the Asia/Pacific region is the best of these. The main weaknesses are in North American air travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3106/oz and down a net -US$12 from yesterday and off its all-time high.Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just under US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$74.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.9 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just over 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 66.5 and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,116 and up +2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the NZD is falling again and sharply, now back to one-month lows as commodity prices suggested shifts to our disadvantage, and global trade flows became more uncertain.The global risk-off trend is building. Wall Street opened weak, although it has pared back some of the losses in its afternoon trade.Elsewhere in the US, a key MidWest factory survey, the Chicago PMI, contracted less in March than expected. The shift itself wasn't large, but it was unexpected because a worsening was expected. So it has gained attention. But more than a third of respondents to this survey said they would respond to tariff pressures by raising prices. Only 18% said they would on-shore supplies. New order growth only got also-ran mentions. Overall, this report is of a slower downturn.The Dallas Fed factory survey was mixed. New order levels improved marginally but remained weak. Production levels rose more. But perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in March. The general business activity index fell to its lowest reading since July 2024.US factories are not gearing up for the 'benefits' of tariffs, yet anyway. And there are no significant signs of plans to do that.In Canada, one party is advancing an election strategy to push back on the tariff impacts on their trade with the US, ramping up home-building sharply to a level that reminds them of the post WWII surge. This campaign pledge is likely to find a receptive audience, because by all accounts Canadians are really, really pissed-off at the US.They will need something significant because all indications are that the impending tariff levels from the US are not being worked lower but in fact are more likely now to be at the upper end of earlier signals when they are announced on Thursday NZT.Across the Pacific in Japan there was a good jump in industrial production reported for February, from January.In South Korea, industrial production there was a rise on the same basis, although smaller.In China, they reported official PMIs for March and the factory one rose marginally as expected to a small expansion. Their services PMI for March rose marginally more. Importantly, in both cases new order levels came in better than the overall indexes.In India, they are moving into summer and all the indications are for extreme temperatures. So high are they being forecast that they could be at a level that causes parts of their economy to shut down, or at least stumble. Heatwaves are being normalised, with more energy consumption the only way to battle it on an individual level, and that means burning more coal.In Germany, retail sales rose more than expected in February (in real terms), which was much better than expected. Meanwhile they said the CPI inflation was running at 2.2% and slightly lower than the February level, and a four month low.Like Canada, Australia is also in an election campaign. US tariff impacts haven't really become an issue there yet although being anti-Trump is helping. But more of an issue is that China has another spy ship circling while at the same time its diplomats are calling for 'trade unity'. It is such an obvious carrot-and-stick play that it is winning China no friends. The trade fallout if Australia doesn't buckle, could be more serious for them than US tariffs.Australian property prices continued to recover from a short-lived dip to hit fresh highs in March as borrowers and prospective home buyers await a decision on interest rates today. Data from CoreLogic showed house prices rose in all cities except Hobart last month, with the national median value of a home now over AU$820,000.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3118/oz and up another net +US$34 from yesterday and easily a new all-time high.Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$75/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.7 USc and and down -½c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -½c at just under 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 66.3 and down -40 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,350 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs Group Vice Chairman Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president, talks about impact of Trump’s impending tariffs and the outlook for the Fed. He speaks with Bloomberg's Julie Fine in Dallas.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ray Perryman, a Waco-based economist who's opined on the Texas economy for more than four decades, discusses his hits and misses as well as what lies ahead with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius.

Enrique Dussel Peters, the coordinator of the Center for Chinese–Mexican Studies at the Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México, and Dallas Fed economist Jesus Cañas discuss challenges to the triangular trade relationship between the U.S., Mexico and China at a time of rising tensions.

US President Trump clarified that there will be a 10+10 tariff on China for a total of 20% additional tariffs and that the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect on March 4th.US stocks closed notably in the red with the Nasdaq 100 (-2.8%) the clear laggard as the Technology sector was heavily pressured alongside significant losses in NVIDIA (-8.6%).APAC stocks declined with heavy pressure seen at month-end following the sell-off on Wall St with global risk sentiment hit by tariff threats and following a slump in NVIDIA shares post-earnings.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.0% on Thursday.Bitcoin continued its slump and dipped under USD 80,000 after falling more than 25% from its record high.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, CPI & Unemployment, French/Italian CPI, US PCE & Dallas Fed, Canadian GDP, ECB SCE, Comments from BoE's Ramsden, Earnings from Fubo, Holcim, BASF, Allianz & Rightmove, Credit Reviews for Germany & France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are in the red, but with sentiment off lows; ES/NQ gain ahead of US PCE.USD remains underpinned by trade angst; Antipodeans lag given the risk-tone.Bonds bid after Trump's latest on tariffs & tech pressure, though benchmarks are off highs.Commodities lower on month end and ahead of weekend uncertainty.Looking ahead, German CPI US PCE & Dallas Fed, Canadian GDP. Credit Reviews for Germany & France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Shooting down drones over your property; competing tax cut ideas; Ivermectin over the counter, and; more from the 89th Texas Legislature. I explain why the Senate's focus on property tax reduction through increasing the homestead exemption is the better path from a philosophical point of view.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed reports the Texas Service Sector and Retail did well in February but with a very bad attitude!More hypocrisy from the Left and media reporters on the much vaunted, by them, “separation of church and state.” When it comes to using churches to stop the enforcement of laws Leftists dislike, then it's all well and good for government to hand out special accommodation to churches.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Governor Abbott has been sucked into two stories he'd rather have not had to deal with. He's there though and his get-out-in-front-of-it swings at bat are really weak on both stories.First is the Lottery Commission scandals – Abbott has chosen not to reign in the commission for some time despite widespread knowledge of bad actions. Today he asks the Texas Rangers to investigate – way too late and really off mark because the problems are more policy related than criminal. Abbott's own appointee as lottery commissioner has now resigned.And the ol' Colony Ridge development is back in the news: Colony Ridge targeted in Trump deportation push, Greg Abbott says. Abbott makes like he's getting tough on the place, built by big donors, but note the DPS sergeant who says they are doing what they've been doing for two years despite Abbott's get tough social media post.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed says Texas manufacturing took a dive in February. Apple announces new big server plant for Houston-area, and more business news.A&M system's list of 5 candidates for new Chief Aggie.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that is not good. Markets are suddenly gripped by extreme fears of where the world's largest economy is heading.But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy Pulse auction has seen milk powder prices fall. The big fall expected for WMP didn't happen but it was a retreat all the same. The small fall expected for SMP actually came in more pronounced than expected. Both shifts have ended the recent run up in these prices although they probably don't necessarily end the higher trending. Neither correction was enough to unstitch that at this event. But uncertainty is back all the same.US data releases overnight remained resilient. The US retail impulse, as measured by the Redbook survey, held strong, unchanged and up +6.2% from the same week a year ago.The next Richmond Fed factory survey moved up a bit but is now showing an expansion, its most since October 2023. This was a better result than anticipated and in complete contrast to yesterday's Texas survey.The Dallas Fed's services survey eased back, but is still expanding although the trend has turned down mainly because the outlook uncertainty is rising.But none of this data trumped the fast-rising doom mood in the US. The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment was particularly negative. Its reading of consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Although other similar surveys like the PMIs and the University of Michigan one showed the same trend, this latest one was worse and has just compounded the negative mood.Risk aversion sentiment is gripping financial markets today. Wall Street is lower, the US Treasury bond prices are surging (yields falling), yield inversions are returning, and the USD is rising, in the normal reaction to a risk-off mood. Everyone from consumers to the financial market professionals know the US is going the wrong way with its public policy.And we should probably note that the Tesla share price is down more than -8% so far today, down -14% in a week and down -20% since the start of the year. The "move-fast-and-break-things" strategy isn't proving to be a good business practice.There was another US Treasury 5yr auction today and the well-supported event delivered a yield of 4.07%, lower than the the 4.29% at the equivalent event a month ago.Elsewhere, Taiwanese retail sales are on the rise, up +5.3% in January from a year ago in a strong showing, much better than expected. Meanwhile, Taiwanese industrial production growth eased, but only back to the levels expected.South Korea's central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 2.75% yesterday. This was as expected. It is their third cut since this rate peaked in January 2023 at 3.5%. Their cutting cycle started in October 2024.In China, exports through Hong Kong fell to a one year low in January, and a sharp retreat from December. This is the weakest growth in exports activity after sharp reversals for exports of electrical machinery, and household appliances.In Australia, regulator ASIC is warning of the risks of investing in private markets, a growing trend recently. The opacity of valuations, liquidity and governance has them worried.And as the Aussies get ready for a probably May election, it has been standard to expect the ruling Labor Party to lose, mainly because incumbents are losing elsewhere. But a new poll suggests a change may in fact not happen there. No doubt they are encouraged by the German election where essentially the center held.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.31%, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2894/oz and down -US$48 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2 at just under US$69/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,309 and down a massive -7.7% from this time yesterday. Bitcoin has dropped about 20% since Trump's January inauguration, as initial optimism over his crypto-friendly stance fades. Bitcoin wasn't the only crypto to drop. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Evan Koenig is a former senior aide to the president of the Dallas Fed. Evan returns to the show to discuss, the ins and outs of nominal GDP targeting, the practical applications of NGDP targeting, the reasons the Fed should consider it for the framework review, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on October 29th, 2024 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:06) – Evan Koenig at the Fed (00:02:04) – Nominal GDP Targeting (00:06:22) – Why the Fed Didn't Consider Nominal GDP Targeting (00:17:25) – How to Explain Nominal GDP Targeting to the Public (00:23:10) – Main Arguments for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:52) – Practical Applications of Nominal GDP (00:47:19) – Nominal GDP Targeting and the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review (00:50:57) – Outro

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading as stocks ended the day just off worst levels. A bit of an up-and-down day today with the market unable to translate early strength into a bounce, but also saw limited downside despite some sharp selling pressure late last week. In macro news, Dallas Fed manufacturing missed consensus and saw rising cost pressures along with some negative commentary around immigration and trade worries.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the fading of confidence in the US is spreading, but trailing the international reputation demise.First up today, the widely-watched Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for the US fell in January from an upwardly revised result for December, suggesting American economic growth decreased to below trend. The personal consumption and housing categories, along with the production sector, both retreated.The Dallas Fed's regional factory survey fell sharply in January from a positive expansion in December to quite a negative contraction in this latest survey. New orders led the shift lower, while the company outlook index fell 24 points and the outlook uncertainty index surged to a seven-month high of 29.2 from nearly zero last month. There are some suddenly worried folks in the US oil patch - or as the Dallas Fed themselves noted, businesses are faltering under increasing uncertainty.So investors are shifting to risk-free options. There was a large two year US Treasury auction earlier today, one that was again well supported, It delivered a median yield of 4.13%, down from the 4.17% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Singapore's CPI inflation rate fell to 1.2% in January from a slightly revised 1.5% in the prior month. This was well below analyst expectations of 2.2% and is the lowest level in four years. (In between, it peaked at 7.5% in September 2022, but it has been falling since.) Lower food prices were a key contributor in this January result.Locally, we should probably note that the annual maintenance of the Cook Strait power cable has been putting huge pressure on an already stretched power supply. There was a very wide divergence in pricing between the Islands yesterday (very high in the South Island in the early afternoon) and a "low residual notice" was issued. (H/T TR.)The UST 10yr yield is at 4.41%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2942/oz and up +US$7 from yesterday.Oil prices are up less than +50 USc at just under US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$75/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.2, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,565 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US equity markets have made a comeback from yesterday's tech rout. But it isn't a full comeback yet in the tech space. In addition, general economic sentiment is more sober about the 2025 prospects.But first, last week's US retail sales were up +4.9% from the same week a year ago.However, new orders for manufactured durable goods fell -2.2% in December from November, following a downwardly revised -2% drop in November and far below market expectations of a +0.6% rise. Year on year, the December month was -3.8% lower than in 2023 and that dragged the full year result lower. Basically it held until December, and then there is this unexpected drop.Also at a level less than expected and less than the prior month is the January survey results from the Conference Board for consumer sentiment.The regional Richmond Fed factory survey remained soft in January, and their services sector survey softened too.And the Dallas Fed services survey also 'moderated' in January.Things are likely to get more uncertain. Brutal dawn raids are underway on undocumented workers, and the Whitehouse has stopped almost all Federal assistance programs. At the same time, access to the OMB website that can give details on this action has been disabled. Confusion reigns. Most at risk is funding for education, disaster aid, and housing. All up, it is a war on "poor people" in support of billionaires. The US Labor Board has been eviscerated. All foreign aid is halted too as the US gifts the world to China's influence, backed up by bullying of other nation's leaders. US public policy has suddenly become an ethical wasteland.There was a slightly less-well-supported UST 7yr bond auction today and that brought a median yield of 4.41%. That was less than the 4.49% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, the Spring Festival migration is underway, and they expect a mammoth 9 billion trip events over the period. It will also be a test of their facial recognition tracking system (or "ticket verification system".)In Malaysia, inflation seems well contained. But there is a 'but'. Their PPI fell -0.4% year-on-year in November, but it rose +0.5% on the same basis in December. While both levels are low that is a month-on-month rise of +0.8%, which is on top of a quite fast month-on-month rise in November. On a producer basis, they need to keep an eye on this momentumIn Australia, the December NAB business sentiment survey remained negative, but a little less so. The same survey shows businesses think conditions are positive, and a little more so.And staying in Australia, we should probably note that the ATO, their federal tax authority, is now targeting landlords for undeclared income. They think more than AU$1 bln is being undeclared. The NZ IRD is running a similar campaign. Both have new data-matching capabilities. But what makes the Aussie effort interesting is that because they have a means-tested age pension program, it is a magnet for hiding income so that a claim on it qualifies. It is a vulnerability that doesn't apply in New Zealand. Aussies at risk will not only have to pay back the under-declared rental income, plus interest, plus penalties, but they will also then have to pay back the super they weren't entitled to, plus interest, plus penalties. It will be a very expensive tax dodge for them.Later today, there will be an important release in Australia on their inflation levels. They will disclose both their Q4 level, plus their monthly December level. Both are expected to ease to about a 2.5% level from 2.8% in Q3. Some think to 2.2%. An under-shoot will encourage the RBA to move by reducing their 4.35% cash rate target. But a hold (or a rise) will likely put that off the table. The RBA next reviews its policy rate on February 18.The UST 10yr yield is lower at 4.56%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$2757/oz and up +US$24 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$73/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$77/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.6 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.1, and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$102,256 and a +2.5% partial bounceback from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, also at +/- 2.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Wall Street is reassessing its valuation basics, and there is a general pullback across the board. It started with questions about an AI valuation bubble, but is extending to others now. "Risk-off" is the mood today.But first, yesterday's reporting of China's official PMIs for January all took a step lower, now recording virtually no expansion. This was weaker than expected. Their factory PMI fell into a contraction state (49.1), while their services PMI retreated to only a weak expansion (50.2). It wasn't the result policymakers there would have wanted given they have been trying to stimulate their economy for more than three months now. It that effort is working, the core must have been quite compromised.Chinese industrial profits were reported to be -3.3% lower in the year to December than the same period in 2023. But perhaps there are some reason to be positive for December alone, they were +7.0% higher than the same month a year ago - and that might have been their best December on record. Hard to tell how much Beijing stimulus was part of that late effort however. However, the January PMIs probably mean they have got off to a weak start in 2025.China's tax take grew +1.3% in 2024 following a 6.4% rise in 2023. The sharp slowing followed slowing domestic demand and a slump in their property market, all consistent with the overall economic challenges they have.Bloomberg is pointing out that current commercial real estate activity in Hong Kong is crystalising some very large losses. This re-rating will have loud echoes in many places. It is one of Hong Kong's worst slumps in history, with no end in sight. Average prices of office buildings, shopping malls and other properties have fallen more than 40% from their highs in 2018, eroding the value of the collateral backing many bank loans. Defaults are also rising as more property owners and developers run into severe cash flow difficulties.None of these China-based news data items will be helping the Spring Festival mood in the business sector.In the US, the Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing survey picked up pace in January to its highest since October 2021. New orders hit their highest since April 2022, while capacity utilisation and shipments also rose.Meanwhile, there was also a rise in new home sales in the US in December, taking them back to mid-range for any 2024 month.And the Chicago Fed's National Activity index improved in December. All this gritting economic activity bodes well for the 2024-Q4 GDP result due out on Friday.The UST 10yr yield is lower at 4.53%, down -9 bps from yesterday at this time. Wall Street is down sharply today with the S&P500 down -2.0% to start its week. The price of gold will start today at US$2733/oz and down -US$37 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2 at just over US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now under US$76.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.8 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.1, and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,190 and down -5.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

MCALLEN, Texas - Kathryn Lueders, general manager of Starbase says the local community means a big deal to SpaceX. Lueders gave the keynote speech at the Vistas from Texas seminar co-hosted by UT-Rio Grande Valley's Center for Border Economic Studies and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Her presentation was titled: “SpaceX's presence and impact on the RGV economy.” The event was held at Rio Bank's headquarters in McAllen. “We're vested, right? We are here to stay, and we will be looking forward to many, many launches off of Boca Chica and really understanding and being part of this community,” Lueders said. In a power-point presentation, Lueders showed what she said was one of her favorite pictures, taken from the harbor. “If you go to Starbase, none of that hardware happens without the people that are there. When I started a little bit over a year ago, less than 2,000 SpaceXers were there. We're now up to about twenty-five, twenty-six hundred.” Depending on how the company's construction and maintenance contracts go, another 700 to 800 workers could be added, she said. “You can be a rocket scientist, an engineer from the Rio Grande Valley and stay in the Rio Grande Valley. But this is a community endeavor. We're not doing this without huge investment from the community and creating places where our people want to stay and live and continue to live… this is going to take all of us to really be able to grow this enterprise, to be able to conduct all the missions that we want to do.” Lueders continued: “So community is like a big deal for us. Sometimes you can be so focused on work. But I tell people, wear your SpaceX shirt out in the community. Now, behave yourself when you're wearing your SpaceX shirt out in the community. If you're going to go out to parties, maybe leave your shirt home for that day. But I am proud of the fact of how many people are out there and living in the community, and that we actually do a lot of things to be able to get the community to understand that we do care about the community.” Lueders ran through some of things SpaceX does to integrate its workers in the community. “We have a third Saturday, where employees… there's a new area where we go. Marisela (Cortez) finds this place, across the whole Valley, spreads it out, because it is important for us to be able to show up and show that we do care and want to help,” Lueders said. Marisela Cortez is external affairs manager at Starbase. She was present for Lueders' presentation at the Vistas from Texas seminar. “We also do this thing once a month where we invite employees to work with a local restaurant, and we kind of we pick their day off and so that all their revenues on that day off are from SpaceXers. And we kind of then allow the folks to be able to go experience a new restaurant, like in Harlingen or Brownsville,” Lueders said. “Sometimes when we have people from out of state… it's just getting them to that first place and feeling comfortable, and then they can start exploring the community themselves. We specifically do that type of event with our Starbasers at least once a month.” Lueders added: “We also look at, what are the other community and support organizations (we can help)? Obviously, Marisela doesn't have an unlimited budget for support, but she looks around. What are the key things that most impact communities, and how do we make sure that we are showing a presence there? Because obviously, we want people to understand we do feel like part of this community.”Go to www.riograndeguardian.com to read the latest border news stories and watch the latest news videos.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: The Texas Supreme Court slaps down the libs at the State Bar of Texas for going after Texas Attorney General staff over 2020 election lawsuits filed by the state. The state bar libs didn't like the politics of Paxton's office and so, as they've done in other states, went after lawyers on “disciplinary” charges that were spurious and unmerited. Read the full decision here.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.The late Richard Cavazos, General of the U.S. Army, is being posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor for actions on the battlefield in Korea. He was a graduate of Texas Tech and his brother Lauro was president of Texas Tech as well as Secretary of Education under President Reagan.Texas sales tax revenue was $4.1 billion in December, an increase below the general inflation rate.The Dallas Fed releases the Texas Service and Retail Sector report for December.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news 2024 has brought some huge and surprising changes. But in other sectors, not as much change as you might have expected. And through it all profits and wealth growth have been strong.But first in the US and based on a rise in new orders, the Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing indexmoved up into positive territory in December, its first positive reading since April 2022. Forward sentiment was positive in that state for a second month in a row.Also driven by new order inflows, but the lack of them in this case, the Chicago PMI fell further in December from November and missing market forecasts. This is their 13th consecutive month of retreats, recording its steepest decline since May.US pending home sales in November grew a strong +6.9% from a year ago, their best rise since May 2021. To be fair however, it is off a weak base, but it is the fourth straight month of gains in sales volumes. Sellers seem to be capitulating on price expectations, and it has become a buyers market, according to the peak US realtor group.In China, a Reuters poll suggests factory activity there expanded in December, capping a three month gain.In Japan, their 10-year government bond yield edged up to around 1.11%, its highest since 2011, as investors continued to assess their latest inflation data.South Korean retail sales rose more than expected. Even so the gain was minimal. Korean industrial production undershot in November. But it is their political crisis that is hurting their currency, falling to its lowest against the USD since 2009.Other countries are depreciating too against the US dollar. The Turkish lira is at a record, all-time low. Ditto the Russian ruble. And the Chinese yuan is almost its lowest since 2007.The US dollar index is ending the year its highest since 2022, and prior to that, its strongest since 2002.Back on Wall Street, the Wall Street Journal is reporting the investment in exchange traded funds now exceeds US$10 tln, with a 2024 rise in these investment vehicles up +30% from 2023 or up +US$2½ tln in 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.55%, and down -8 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2298/oz and down -US$22 from yesterday. We started the year with this price at just on US$2,050/oz, so a +27% net rise for 2024.Oil prices are a bit more than +50 USc firmer at just over US$71/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just over US$74. We are ending 2024 almost exactly where we started.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. We started the year at 63.4 USc, peaked at 63.6 USc at the end of September, but the net devaluation until now has been -11.1% in USD terms. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 67 to be little-changed from yesterday. The TWI-5 started the year at 71.1, (it peaked at 71.4 mid February) for an overall devaluation of -5.8%.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,907 and down -2.0% from this time on Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%. It started the year at US$44,204 and rose to US$73,095 by mid-March. It was still at just US$69,391 just prior to the US election, and has risen since that result. It peaked by closing at US$106,169 on December 18, 2024.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday, January 6.Happy New Year everyone !

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Legislature 2025: Rep. Brian Harrison, HD10, explains why Texas public colleges and universities need reining in and why the Univ. of Texas system may need a big budget cut from state appropriations. He also repeats what I have said for many years: The Leftism on campus has been allowed by Republicans. That and much more legislative news from gun rights to campaign finance law to election integrity.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed is out with the Texas manufacturing, service, and retail sector outlook reports.2024 A&M vs. Texas tickets most expensive college football game.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the market pressure on US benchmark interest rates is easing now.First, an updated Dallas Fed survey showed the Texan manufacturing sector contracted less in November, the least in 2½ years. This was driven by the outlook mood which improved sharply, post election. But this may just be a partisan hope. New order levels actually fell to their worst shrinkage in a year, and continuing a two year trend of shrinkage in this oil-patch region.And the broader Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased in October from September to its lowest in nine months in a surprise result that was much worse than market forecasts. This index suggested US economic growth decreased. Current forecasts are that the US economy is growing at just under +2%, although the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has it at +2.6%. Anywhere else that sort of expansion would be considered very good for a developed economy.There was another large US Treasury bond auction this morning, again very well supported. The yield was 4.24% at this event, and higher than the 4.07% median yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago - but not the sort of rise we have seen recently in other maturities.Singapore's inflation rate eased to 1.4% year-on-year in October from 2% in the previous month, and below market expectations of 1.8% gain. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March 2021, as prices moderated for housing and utilities.Taiwanese retail stopped expanding in October after a long run of expansion that started in August 2021.But Taiwanese industrial production is still growing at a healthy rate, although that rate of growth is slowing. It was up +8.5% in October from a year ago, down from an +11% rise in the year to September. A year ago in October 2023 it was falling +2.3%, so they have come a long way since then.In China, their central bank injected ¥900 bln into financial institutions via a one-year medium-term lending facility yesterday at an unchanged rate of 2.0%. That compared with the ¥1.45 tln of MLF loans due this month, marking a net cash withdrawal of ¥550 bln.After the March to August rises, the German IFO sentiment survey returned to its lows for other than the GFC or the pandemic. Analysts see a fading of strength in an economy that was only recently an engine of Europe. And overnight, ThyssenKrupp, the largest steel maker in Germany, said it would cut its workforce by up to 11,000 from the current 98,000, by 2030.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.29% and down -12 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2631/oz and down -US$85 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2 at just over US$69/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.4 USc and up a minor +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps higher at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.2, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,648 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on tomorrow.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: A new New York Times / Siena College poll shows Ted Cruz up over Allred just after a Dem-backed poll, made to help raise money, claimed the two were tied as of Saturday. Gromer Jeffers, Jr., of the Dallas Morning News, sure has it right: After spending the entire campaign acting as if he's not part of the Lefty-Harris Democrat Party, Allred went all out to embrace Harris and his liberal Democrat roots in the big Harris Rally in Houston this weekend.Despite all the glowing press reports of the huge Harris rally in Houston, was it really what it seemed?Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Survey headlines with good news but the internals don't really support that good news.Citizens legally petition for a recall election of the entire city leadership of San Benito – mayor and all of the council.Murdered little girl's family released a letter over the Roberson death penalty case which chastises the Texas House committee's pro-innocence dog-and-pony show. See the full letter here, on X.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates. www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: New polling is interesting and shows that Texas Republicans could lose the U.S. Senate race. Democrat liberal Colin Allred is polling neck and neck with Ted Cruz. I give a full rundown of the detail of the poll done by Public Policy Polling.All the free media publicity around man-child Beto Pancho O'Rourke had Republicans working but this time around we don't see the same work ethic yet Allred is polling better than did Beto.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Texas manufacturing down; service sector okay but relative flat, and; retail continues its contraction.The longshoreman strike shows what is, and has always been, wrong with the labor union movement: Unions have always been as greedy as they and their allies have painted business owners or “capital” to be. Press reports say that ILA [union] members currently have a base salary of $81,000, but large amounts of overtime can allow some to reach $200,000 for manual labor jobs.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Sheila Olmstead, a professor specializing in environmental policy at the Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy at Cornell University, discusses with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius the competing demands for water in Texas and the challenges a growing economy poses.

Kunal Patel, Dallas Federal Reserve, joins Jason Spiess, founder, The Crude Life to review the latest energy survey and discuss their upcoming Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand in November. The Dallas Fed conducts a quarterly survey of about 200 oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District—Texas, southern New [...]

What is a soft landing, and how do we know if one is possible? In this episode, St. Louis Fed Economic Policy Advisor Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría unpacks that question and explains the importance of the Beveridge curve, an economic indicator that represents the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate. She'll also discuss how a historic change in job openings prompted her and a colleague from the Dallas Fed to explore how the Beveridge curve could be expanded to analyze whether a soft landing is possible.

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is the Senior Vice President and the Senior Advisor to the President of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan. Sam is a longtime veteran of the Federal Reserve System and has also previously served at the Minneapolis and Chicago Federal Reserve banks. Sam joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Treasury market resiliency issues, the floor system, the Friedman Rule, bank deposits, the monetary policy implications of labor migration across the United States, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Sam's Dallas Fed profile Sam's website   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Customer Settlement Risk Externality at US Securities Central Counterparties* by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability* by Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, and Joshua Younger   *Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration* by Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *Is a Treasury Central Clearing Mandate the Path to Increased Central Clearing?* by Marta Chaffee and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *The Netting Efficiencies of Marketwide Central Clearing* by Michael Fleming and Frank Keane   *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule* - A speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at the 2023 European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:31) – Sam's Wide-Ranging Career Path   (00:11:08) – The Customer Settlement Risk Externality   (00:14:30) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market   (00:18:38) – The Importance and Effectiveness of Central Clearing   (00:26:50) – The History and Role of FICC   (00:32:27) – All-to-all Trades as a Path to Reforming the Treasury Market   (00:36:52) – The Future Timeline for Central Clearing   (00:39:07) – *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule*   (00:46:52) – *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability*   (00:52:21) – The Importance of Labor Migration for Monetary Policy   (00:59:42) – Outro

The number of Texas cattle are at a multi-decade low at a time of strong demand and relatively high consumer prices. Dr. David Anderson, a Texas A&M University professor and extension economist, discusses with Dallas Fed economist Emily Kerr what's driving the market, making even hamburger pricey. 

In this episode of the Energy News Beat Daily Standup, the hosts, Michael Tanner and Stuart Turley discussed several key topics, including China's surpassing Europe in per capita energy consumption, the diversification of central banks from USD assets, the extensive mining required for renewable energy, the diminishing bipartisan consensus on renewable power, and the Supreme Court overturning the Chevron decision. They also covered recent oil and gas market trends, noting a drop in rig counts and discussing SM Energy's acquisition of XL Resources. The episode concluded with insights from the Dallas Fed survey, highlighting industry concerns and the potential impact of the upcoming 2024 election on energy policies.Highlights of the Podcast00:00 - Intro01:48 - China Surpasses Europe in Per Capita Energy Consumption04:26 - Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify from USD-Assets to Other Currencies and to Gold06:19 - Mining the Planet for Renewable Energy08:54 - Bipartisan consensus in favor of renewable power is ending10:08 - Supreme Court overturns Chevron decision, curtailing federal agencies' power in major shift14:12 - Markets Update19:44 - Shale Executives See Mergers Squeezing US Oil Production25:02 - OutroPlease see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.China Surpasses Europe in Per Capita Energy ConsumptionJune 30, 2024 Stu TurleyChina's energy consumption per capita has surpassed that of Europe, driven by decades of economic growth and infrastructure development. China has made significant investments in renewable energy but remains the world's largest emitter of greenhouse […]Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify from USD-Assets to Other Currencies and to GoldJune 30, 2024 Stu TurleyLong, slow erosion of the US dollar's dominance. China's renminbi keeps losing ground, many other currencies gain, as does gold. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The US dollar is still by far the most dominant global reserve […]Mining the Planet for Renewable EnergyJune 30, 2024 Stu TurleyThis election year, several critical issues dominate voter concerns. Illegal immigration across unsecured borders by migrants, criminals, sex traffickers, and terrorists. Anti-police policies, reduced prosecution of criminals and rising crime. Unprecedented prices for food, clothing, […]Bipartisan consensus in favor of renewable power is endingJune 29, 2024 Stu TurleyOne of the most striking things about the explosion of renewable power that's happening in the US is that much of it is going on in states governed by politicians who don't believe in the […]Supreme Court overturns Chevron decision, curtailing federal agencies' power in major shiftJune 28, 2024 Mariel AlumitWashington — The Supreme Court on Friday overturned a landmark 40-year-old decision that gave federal agencies broad regulatory power, upending their authority to issue regulations unless Congress has spoken clearly. The court split along ideological lines […]Shale Executives See Mergers Squeezing US Oil ProductionJune 27, 2024 Mariel AlumitUS oil production will decline if the corporate-acquisition spree sweeping the shale sector is prolonged, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey. More than 50 percent of oil executives told the Dallas Fed they foresee […]Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB TopEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB Substack– Get in Contact With The Show –

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: There is much talk and action about the primary Texas electric grid, ERCOT, and our ability to adapt to accommodate massive growth in the state. But, on that very subject, the Houston Chronicle editorial board shows most all that is wrong with Democrats on issues of business and economics – the same error that has existed my entire life. I explain on the show.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report shows no improvement in the Texas manufacturing sector.U.S. Supreme Court to take up challenge to ban on sex-change drugs and procedures for youth and children, minors, in the next term.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Artificial intelligence, electric cars and power-hungry manufacturing are combining to boost power demand in Texas and nationwide. Dallas Fed economists Kunal Patel and Pia Orrenius examine what it will take to ensure that the lights stay on, and burgeoning user demand is met.

"Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish, the author of The Informationist newsletter and founder/managing partner of The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, joins Julia La Roche on episode 174 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, the pockets of recession especially in the private sector, and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S.  Links:  Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/ The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/  Timestamps:  0:00 Intro and welcome James Lavish 1:00 Macro view  2:30 Pockets of recession, fiscal dominance, inflation 5:08 Highly manipulated numbers, CPI   10:30 Deficit spending and the economy  12:40 Debt spiral and why the U.S. is a ‘zombie'  17:20 They're going to print so much money it's going to shock people  19:50 U.S. Treasuries  28:15 Stagflation  30:00 Dallas Fed survey: recession red flag?  35:00 The government will continue to recklessly spend  37:03 FOMC and jobs  40:50 Parting thoughts, asset allocation

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Result review of yesterday's party primary runoff elections. There was, overall, good news on statehouse races for conservatives but a few disappointments.With the help of Jefferson County Democrats, the Dem sheriff was a big backer, Drinker of the House Dade Phelan got a narrow win – that's somehow appropriate for a man committed to empowering Democrats in the Texas House and who won the speaker's gavel by doing a deal for Dem support.Rep. Tom Oliverson says the race for speaker begins today.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report: Growth resumes in Texas service sector, but outlooks continue to worsen.Coverage of more storm damage across Texas last night.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The entertainment from the US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey comments did not disappoint. Several would be met with a disparaging “OK, boomer” if only the TikTok generation read the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Today's anecdotes come in the form of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. These comments are indirect quotes, and sanitization reduces entertainment value. Remarks on prices and pricing power are still likely to be investors' focus.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: It may be quiet where you are but in some places this is a BIG election day – it's party primary runoff day. The direction of the Texas House and more may be set today. I review some of the key races to watch around the Lone Star State.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Dallas Fed report: Texas manufacturing activity weakened in May.The Republican Party of Texas has elected a new chairman and vice chairman as well as adopted a rule for closed primary election. More. Congratulations to new chairman Abraham George and vice chairman D'rinda Randall.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Investment, a large labor pool and proximity to the United States have helped propel Mexico's economic fortunes. Dallas Fed economists Sewon Hur and Pia Orrenius discuss how improving productivity could propel Mexico beyond the ranks of middle-income nations.

Kunal Patel, Dallas Federal Reserve, joins The Crude Life to breakdown the recent Energy Survey. This quarter's survey also includes for the first time a set of questions regarding price expectations for oil and natural gas over six-month, one-year, two-year and five-year horizons. According to Patel, activity in the oil [...]

Closing the widening federal budget will require tough choices, possibly including new taxes and cuts to entitlement programs, such as Social Security and the Children's Health Insurance Program. American Enterprise Institute tax expert Alan Viard discusses some options with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius.

Stocks close mixed; PepsiCo blames higher interest rates and lower savings; Dallas Fed president says no rush to cut rates; December inflation numbers revised lower.

In this week's Friday Gold Wrap Podcast, JD and Joel discuss why gold is down today, why the Fed's game could replay 2008, and other market and precious metals news. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -January jobs number at 353k vs. 180k expected -Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) negative past 20 months -Disastrous manufacturing data from the Dallas Fed, Philly Fed, and other -Georgia, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Kansas consider dropping precious metals tax -The week ahead -Quote from Hayek: The more the state “plans” the more difficult planning becomes for the individual." Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit schiffgold.com/news.

#RafiFarber - Spare Dollars Are About to Run Out, And the Fed Does Not Care The Federal Reserve is very confused about what might happen when all the extra money from the last printing spree finally runs out. There are now some $600B left. Some, like New York Fed head John Williams and Fed Governor Chris Waller say nothing much will happen so chill out. However, Dallas Fed head Lorie Logan thinks it could cause some serious problems. The fact is, almost $2 trillion have poured in to the money supply from the ON RRP facility since 2023, and despite this mighty vigorous flow, the money supply has nevertheless shrunk. Logically, that means when the source of the inflow dries up, the tectonic deflationary forces now ravishing the money supply from high interest will no longer be masked. Then, of course, the Fed is going to have to print like hell. And gold and silver are going to explode like never before. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - Sign up for The End Game Investor! https://endgameinvestor.substack.com/ To find out more about Fortuna Silver go to: https://fortunasilver.com/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Silver, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-silver-mines/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Brownsville, long a quiet community in the largely agricultural Lower Rio Grande Valley, confronts a burst of activity from SpaceX launches to new port trade. Texas National Bank President Joe Quiroga, a lifelong area resident and Dallas Fed director, discusses the rapid change with Dallas Fed economist Pia Orrenius.

Dallas Fed economists Jesse Thompson and Pia Orrenius  discuss how the employment profile of Texas increasingly resembles the U.S., while the energy sector ensures that the state remains unique.

Former Dallas Fed President speaks on the markets and the Fed with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-WattsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Governor Abbott caves to Texas House's extortion plan for any school choice program: Will plow billions of new money into the systems people want to leave and lessen the burdens of transparency and accountability on those same monopoly government school systems. It's almost as if this were not a state with a legislature dominated by Republicans as the deal looks more like what you might see in Michigan or similar to pay off the teacher and administrator unions.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.School choice: Market forces (meaning you and me) versus political forces (such as narrow self-serving special interests and the powerful politically connected) is the fundamental issue with school choice: How do we change the always much maligned “accountability systems” (think testing) for the use of taxpayer money to provide education to children and youth in the state.A monopoly always looks out for itself, for the interests of its people, more than it does for its customers, or users. This is simply because if it is a monopoly, which government schools are in Texas in regard to tax money paid for the purpose of providing education, it does not have to worry about significant losses of users of its services. That then brings on the demand from the polis (political demand of the people) of forms of accountability to try and measure the performance of the inward focused monopoly – think STAAR testing and similar.Those things are not needed in a true choice environment as the accountability system becomes the aggregation of the choices made by what become authentic customers, as opposed to service users. If a school, or type of schooling, is perceived by parents as ineffective or offensive then they take their child, and the tax money that follows the child, to a school or system that better fulfills their value proposition.School choice is about replacing political forces with market forces (you, the customer) as the accountability system in taxpayer funded schemes of primary and secondary education.  Or put differently, school choice moves public education accountability (quality, etc.) from a politically driven system to a consumer driven system.  Dallas Fed report shows Texas' service sector flat with worsening conditions and retail sales continuing their slide downward.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Federal judge tells Border Patrol to stop tampering with Texas' border concertina wire, for now. And, under the remaking America heading: Illegal aliens caught in just the Texas border sectors, over just the last two years, total more than the population of Houston, the nation's 4th largest city!Even if these folk are not allowed to vote, they are used in redistricting and that spells doom for non-Leftists in the future. We should be demanding not only securing of the border but mass deportations after the border is secured.And then, of course, there is this: EXCLUSIVE: 100 Syrians, 50 Iranians Cross Biden's Open Border in October, Says Source.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.“Tepid” is the word used by the Dallas Fed to describe the Texas Manufacturing Sector in today's report. Rep. Clardy, himself a big part of the problem in the Texas House, gets one thing right: Texas' impeachment process needs reform.NFL tells the University of Houston to cease and desist…Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Summer heat cost Texas' economy $24 billion, Dallas Fed says; $15K teacher bonus? Texas Dems unveil plan but House, Gov. Abbott in standoff on education; Solicitors general depart AG Ken Paxton's office after defending him at impeachment trial; Bad Bunny announces 2 Dallas concerts as part of ‘Most Wanted Tour' in 2024; Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day:  A full review of the motions, votes, and opening statements from the Paxton impeachment debacle which began in our Texas Senate today. There were many terrible votes in the early motions by senators showing only six to eight have much respect for the Rule of Law and constitutional protections. Among the worst votes was 22 to 8 voting against the motion to exclude unlawfully obtained “evidence.” Even Lubbock's Senator Charles Perry voted “Nay” on such – it's beyond shocking.I must say I was near tears in Buzbee's opening because of how personal to me it was. As one of the few long timers who has followed each and every element of the attacks on Paxton over many years, but almost never reads a press account that less than ignorant on what has happened, I was shocked to hear Buzbee echo the things I have said many times about these issues and often in similar language. He even started with the victory of Dan Branch just as I have explained for all of this time! I have felt quite alone in my overall knowledge of these issues making Buzbee's comments was a type of confirmation of my decade of commentary on the Paxton issue as a whole.Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Disturbing economic trends from the Dallas Fed report: Manufacturing continues to decline and retail sales remain in the dumps. While the “service sector” keeps growing, it will eventually follow manufacturing.Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar Announces State Revenue for Fiscal 2023, August State Sales Tax Collections. Note that those increase are only about the same as inflation meaning a possible end to net growth.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our radio and streaming affiliates. www.PrattonTexas.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3pr9HgK So another day gone by and I don't think the world knows much more than it has 24 hours ago about Putin and the weekend coup threat. Natural gas prices have jumped from $2 to $2.80 BTU in just 15 days or so (+40%) and not surprisingly energy stocks with a natural gas focus have done much better than those exclusively focused on crude oil. One of the energy bear arguments seems to have really dissipated, and that was the idea that exposure to higher rates would be catastrophic for the highly levered energy sector (in 2020 it was often said that the debt cliffs these companies have would usher in a wave of bankruptcies). A new survey from the Dallas Fed of 150 oil and gas companies indicated that less than 20% see tighter credit conditions having a significant impact on their business. New home sales were up +12.2% in May (volume) with supply down to 6.7 months (had been 7.6 months). My study is starting to indicate a worthlessness to national supply data when some markets are so substantially under-supplied and some suffering from big over-supply (making the aggregate number like the guy whose “average temperature” is found with one arm in the freezer and one in the oven). But what I would point out is that median sales prices have dropped -16.2% (for new homes) since their peak, right in the middle spot of that 10-20% drop I predicted (though this is just new homes, not existing, yet). Seattle and San Francisco, by the way, have seen double-digit median price drops of existing homes. Hmmmmm Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com