lance roberts podcast appearances and mentions

9-3-26 Is the Stock Market Expensive or Cheap?

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2026 44:14

Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those earnings forecasts, the extraordinary concentration of expected growth among a handful of large technology companies, the role of AI investment, and whether today's valuations already price in too much optimism. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Jobs, JOLTS, & Economic Number Previews 5:01 - Markets are Stuck 11:04 - Vacation & Weekend Plans 12:23 - The Fed: What Will Warsh Do With Rates? 16:12 - The Truth About "Fed Buy Backs" 17:57 - Inflation Expectations are not Reason to Raise Rates 21:29 - No Guidance from the Fed? 23:48 - Valuations - What We Know vs What We Think We Know 28:48 - It all Comes Down to AI 32:12 - The Issue with PEG Ratios 36:12 - Dealing with Earnings Estimates Revisions 37:55 - How AI is Like the Railroads 39:34 -The Use of AI is Growing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/OOZIdB7YSsw -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Stuck in Neutral," https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?" hhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-valuation-expensive-cape-or-cheap-peg/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets #StockMarket #MarketValuation #Investing #SP500 #ArtificialIntelligence

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9-2-26 Q&A Wednesday - What Are Markets Waiting For

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 48:39

September is starting with a new set of challenges for investors: rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, persistent inflation, renewed geopolitical tensions, and growing questions about whether the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates again. Add historically weak September seasonality and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections, and investors have plenty to think about. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions about market risk, interest rates, inflation, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - JOLTS Report Review, ADP/Jobs Preview 2:04 - Oil Prices on the rise (oil risk is transient): What's feeding into Inflation? 3:52 - Broadcom report preview 4:14 - Market working down towards 50-DMA to test support 5:15 - Seasonal weakness for September is present; volatility remains low 8:53 - Any market Rotation? 10:28 - Guidance for Acquiring company stock in 401k 12:37 - Recommendation for Rotation in and out of funds - how & why & controlling risk 15:30 - Dividend yields or reinvest in Creation of Retirement Paycheck? 19:37 - Where to hide money from the "coming doom..." 21:30 - Dealing with the risks in September 22:57 - Portfolio Management Rebalancing, & Target Weighting 26:13 - Data Center & related stocks: Bloom, Anet, ETN 30:15 - Money flow & Breadth Indicator, Momentum signals: Tax avoidance investing 32:56 - Is anyone big enough to move the market to influence the election (Situational Awareness) 36:55 - Changes to mandatory withdrawals 38:38 - Sensible policies to "fix" SS: remove restrictions on IRA's vs need for revenue 43:33 - Brookfield Corp? 45:12 - Worry about IRMAA? 45:56 - Pullback # for S&P 46:33 - Gold & Silver to run in future? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ZxnrV8m0F4g?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "September Weakness Tests Market Support," https://youtu.be/4xaM1pIhI1w ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #SeptemberMarkets #Investing #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #MarketRisk

9-2-26 Q&A Wednesday: What Are Markets Waiting For?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 48:40

September is starting with a new set of challenges for investors: rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, persistent inflation, renewed geopolitical tensions, and growing questions about whether the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates again. Add historically weak September seasonality and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections, and investors have plenty to think about. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions about market risk, interest rates, inflation, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - JOLTS Report Review, ADP/Jobs Preview 2:04 - Oil Prices on the rise (oil risk is transient): What's feeding into Inflation? 3:52 - Broadcom report preview 4:14 - Market working down towards 50-DMA to test support 5:15 - Seasonal weakness for September is present; volatility remains low 8:53 - Any market Rotation? 10:28 - Guidance for Acquiring company stock in 401k 12:37 - Recommendation for Rotation in and out of funds - how & why & controlling risk 15:30 - Dividend yields or reinvest in Creation of Retirement Paycheck? 19:37 - Where to hide money from the "coming doom..." 21:30 - Dealing with the risks in September 22:57 - Portfolio Management Rebalancing, & Target Weighting 26:13 - Data Center & related stocks: Bloom, Anet, ETN 30:15 - Money flow & Breadth Indicator, Momentum signals: Tax avoidance investing 32:56 - Is anyone big enough to move the market to influence the election (Situational Awareness) 36:55 - Changes to mandatory withdrawals 38:38 - Sensible policies to "fix" SS: remove restrictions on IRA's vs need for revenue 43:33 - Brookfield Corp? 45:12 - Worry about IRMAA? 45:56 - Pullback # for S&P 46:33 - Gold & Silver to run in future? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ZxnrV8m0F4g?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "September Weakness Tests Market Support," https://youtu.be/4xaM1pIhI1w ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #SeptemberMarkets #Investing #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #MarketRisk

9-2-26 September Weakness Tests Market Support | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2026 4:06

Markets are testing support after three straight days of selling, with technology and semiconductors leading the weakness. The S&P 500 is moving toward its 50-DMA as September seasonality, upcoming corporate buyback blackouts, and quarter-end repositioning add to downside risk. But this remains a normal market pullback, not a reason to panic. With volatility still unusually low and markets not yet deeply oversold, investors should keep the weakness in context. Now is the time to manage risk, take profits where appropriate, rebalance portfolio allocations, and raise some cash rather than make emotional decisions. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/4xaM1pIhI1w --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #SeptemberMarkets

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9-1-26 What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2026 48:32

What should a good financial planner actually do for you? It should go far beyond choosing investments or building a retirement portfolio. A strong financial planning relationship should provide organization, accountability, objectivity, education, and proactive guidance while coordinating investments, taxes, Social Security, Medicare, insurance, estate planning, and retirement income. Just as importantly, your financial plan should evolve as your life, goals, markets, and tax laws change. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine what investors should expect from a financial planner, why personalization and communication matter, how a fiduciary relationship should work, and why good financial advice is ultimately about helping you make better decisions with your money. 0:00 INTRO 0:54 - Economic Previews & late earnings trickle in 3:15 - AI: Dis-inflationary AND Inflationary 4:57 - September is Seasonally Weak: 11:20 - Traditional Buy & Hold vs more active management & fear of gains 14:16 - Capital Preservation is first priority 17:44 - Separately Managed Accounts (SMA) vs S&P 20:04 - The Challenges of starting to build financial plan 26:00 - Getting Your Money's Worth from Financial Advisor 29:21 - The Problem of Account Accumulation & Dilution of Returns 34:02 - Budgeting, stress-testing, & tax planning opportunities 36:17 - Estate planning, medical directives, Durable POA 38:08 - Financial Planning priorities in Investing 39:06 - The Role of Life Insurance in Financial Planning 40:26 - Annuities' Bad rap - does it make sense? 44:00 - How much Liability Protection do You Need? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc -------- Watch our previous show, "Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning" https://youtube.com/live/8HuTiqxY7yM ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Don't Make a Big Bet Yet," https://youtu.be/9gNpbwdm97w ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketOutlook #Investing #MarketCorrection #FinancialPlanning #FinancialAdvisor #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #WealthManagement

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9-1-26 Don't Make a Big Bet Yet | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2026 5:24

Markets are showing broader signs of weakness as the S&P 500, equal-weight index, small caps, and international stocks test or break key moving averages. Technology remains under pressure, while sector rotation continues beneath the surface. Lance Roberts looks at why a move toward the 50-DMA would not be surprising, why investors should avoid making large portfolio bets before the market establishes a clearer direction, and how a strengthening U.S. Dollar could pressure emerging markets, gold, and precious metals. For now, patience may be the best strategy as markets work through this consolidation and correction process. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/9gNpbwdm97w --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketOutlook #Investing #MarketCorrection

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9-1-26 What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2026 48:33

What should a good financial planner actually do for you? It should go far beyond choosing investments or building a retirement portfolio. A strong financial planning relationship should provide organization, accountability, objectivity, education, and proactive guidance while coordinating investments, taxes, Social Security, Medicare, insurance, estate planning, and retirement income. Just as importantly, your financial plan should evolve as your life, goals, markets, and tax laws change. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine what investors should expect from a financial planner, why personalization and communication matter, how a fiduciary relationship should work, and why good financial advice is ultimately about helping you make better decisions with your money. 0:00 INTRO 0:54 - Economic Previews & late earnings trickle in 3:15 - AI: Dis-inflationary AND Inflationary 4:57 - September is Seasonally Weak: 11:20 - Traditional Buy & Hold vs more active management & fear of gains 14:16 - Capital Preservation is first priority 17:44 - Separately Managed Accounts (SMA) vs S&P 20:04 - The Challenges of starting to build financial plan 26:00 - Getting Your Money's Worth from Financial Advisor 29:21 - The Problem of Account Accumulation & Dilution of Returns 34:02 - Budgeting, stress-testing, & tax planning opportunities 36:17 - Estate planning, medical directives, Durable POA 38:08 - Financial Planning priorities in Investing 39:06 - The Role of Life Insurance in Financial Planning 40:26 - Annuities' Bad rap - does it make sense? 44:00 - How much Liability Protection do You Need? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc -------- Watch our previous show, "Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning" https://youtube.com/live/8HuTiqxY7yM ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Don't Make a Big Bet Yet," https://youtu.be/9gNpbwdm97w ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketOutlook #Investing #MarketCorrection #FinancialPlanning #FinancialAdvisor #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #WealthManagement

8-31-26 Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 50:18

Stanley Druckenmiller is warning Washington about the bond market, but the real message may not be an impending debt crisis. The bond market may have already delivered its verdict. Lance Roberts examines Druckenmiller's criticism of Treasury intervention, Scott Bessent's expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, and why attempts to manage yields could create a bigger problem than the initial intervention itself. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - Labor Day Preview, Kevin Warsh Review 4:53 - US-Venezuela Oil Deal 6:08 - August Into September Markets 12:09 - Pumpkins, Spice, & Sickle and Hammer 13:14 - Stanley Druckenmiller & AI 15:41 - Druckenmiller's Bond Warning 18:12 - The Bond Buy back Operation 23:23 - Warsh Wants the Fed Out of the Bond market 25:40 - What Druckenmiller Said vs What's being read 28:10 - What You Should Do if You Own Fixed Income 33:12 - If there's not Crisis... 35:46 - The Myths of Long Term Investing, Part-3 - The Math of Loss 42:55 - Why Valuations Matter 45:35 - When You Retire Matters Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/8HuTiqxY7yM -------- Watch our previous show, "Will Your IRA Go to the Right People?" https://youtube.com/live/GpH7q-IgPXs?feature=share ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "September Volatility Test Begins," https://youtu.be/6e-dFR8sjyc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SeptemberMarkets #MarketVolatility #Investing #RiskManagement #BondMarket #InterestRates #TreasuryBonds #StanleyDruckenmiller #Investing

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8-31-26 Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 50:19

Stanley Druckenmiller is warning Washington about the bond market, but the real message may not be an impending debt crisis. The bond market may have already delivered its verdict. Lance Roberts examines Druckenmiller's criticism of Treasury intervention, Scott Bessent's expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, and why attempts to manage yields could create a bigger problem than the initial intervention itself. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - Labor Day Preview, Kevin Warsh Review 4:53 - US-Venezuela Oil Deal 6:08 - August Into September Markets 12:09 - Pumpkins, Spice, & Sickle and Hammer 13:14 - Stanley Druckenmiller & AI 15:41 - Druckenmiller's Bond Warning 18:12 - The Bond Buy back Operation 23:23 - Warsh Wants the Fed Out of the Bond market 25:40 - What Druckenmiller Said vs What's being read 28:10 - What You Should Do if You Own Fixed Income 33:12 - If there's not Crisis... 35:46 - The Myths of Long Term Investing, Part-3 - The Math of Loss 42:55 - Why Valuations Matter 45:35 - When You Retire Matters Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/8HuTiqxY7yM -------- Watch our previous show, "Will Your IRA Go to the Right People?" https://youtube.com/live/GpH7q-IgPXs?feature=share ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "September Volatility Test Begins," https://youtu.be/6e-dFR8sjyc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SeptemberMarkets #MarketVolatility #Investing #RiskManagement #BondMarket #InterestRates #TreasuryBonds #StanleyDruckenmiller #Investing

8-31-26 September Volatility Test Begins | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2026 5:32

September arrives with markets under pressure, volatility unusually compressed, and the S&P 500 testing key technical support. With earnings season over and economic data taking center stage, investors could face a more challenging stretch as momentum stocks weaken and midterm election uncertainty approaches. Lance Roberts examines the market's sell signal, the potential for a pullback toward the 50-DMA and 100-DMA, and why the 7,500 area could become important support. With rapid market rotation making risk management more difficult, maintaining a cash buffer, managing bond duration, and avoiding emotional investment decisions could be increasingly important as September volatility returns. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/6e-dFR8sjyc --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/druckenmiller-warning-the-bond-market-already-priced-it/ "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SeptemberMarkets #MarketVolatility #Investing #RiskManagement

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More & More Signals Popping Up That Suggest A Pullback Is Near | Lance Roberts

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2026 70:57

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceA current sell signal, slowing momentum, retail demand weakening...These are just some of the recently indicators suggesting the market rally is stocks is losing steam, and more likely than not to experience some sort of pullback in the coming weeks.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, the breaking deal for the US to gain access to 65+ billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves, Nvidia's blowout earnigns & forecast, and of course, his firm's latest trades.For everything the mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#kevinwarsh #oil #nvidia _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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8-27-26 Nvidia Says the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2026 46:01

Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter, reporting record revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago, as demand for AI infrastructure continues to accelerate. But the bigger story may be what comes next. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Nvidia's latest earnings, its extraordinary growth outlook, Blackwell and Vera Rubin demand, the massive buildout in AI infrastructure, and Nvidia's growing financial involvement across the AI ecosystem. We also examine the risks, including rising memory costs, margin pressure, enormous capital requirements, and questions about whether today's AI spending boom can deliver adequate returns. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Economic Recap & Multiplier Effect 6:31 - Market Push from NASDAQ 11:45 - Passwords, Needles & Rosso's toys 14:30 - NVIDIA Reports - Markets Respond 21:36 - How Ancillary Business Benefit from NVIDIA 24:03 - NVIDIA Stock Performance 25:32 - The Heat Map Game 27:25 - Portfolio Positioning & Nat Gas play 30:37 - The Economics of Gilligan's Island 35:33 - Productivity Factors of AI 38:04 - How Much Return on AI Investment will there be 39:57 - How Will AI be Transformative? 42:42 - We're All Investing in AI Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lGSWXLw9dPY ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Fueling AI Data Centers: Behind The Meter Solutions- Part 1" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fueling-ai-data-centers-behind-the-meter-solutions-part-1/ "Behind The Meter Solutions Investment Guide- Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/behind-the-meter-solutions-investment-guide-part-2/ "Productivity On Gilligan's Island: Episode 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/productivity-on-gilligans-island-episode-2/ "Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bitcoin-up-22-has-the-halving-cycle-begun/ --- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NASDAQ Technicals Are Turning Higher," https://youtu.be/33KMo6HoezY ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NASDAQ #StockMarket #TechnologyStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing #Nvidia #NVDA #NvidiaEarnings #AIStocks

8-27-26 Nvidia Says the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2026 46:02

Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter, reporting record revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago, as demand for AI infrastructure continues to accelerate. But the bigger story may be what comes next. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Nvidia's latest earnings, its extraordinary growth outlook, Blackwell and Vera Rubin demand, the massive buildout in AI infrastructure, and Nvidia's growing financial involvement across the AI ecosystem. We also examine the risks, including rising memory costs, margin pressure, enormous capital requirements, and questions about whether today's AI spending boom can deliver adequate returns. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Economic Recap & Multiplier Effect 6:31 - Market Push from NASDAQ 11:45 - Passwords, Needles & Rosso's toys 14:30 - NVIDIA Reports - Markets Respond 21:36 - How Ancillary Business Benefit from NVIDIA 24:03 - NVIDIA Stock Performance 25:32 - The Heat Map Game 27:25 - Portfolio Positioning & Nat Gas play 30:37 - The Economics of Gilligan's Island 35:33 - Productivity Factors of AI 38:04 - How Much Return on AI Investment will there be 39:57 - How Will AI be Transformative? 42:42 - We're All Investing in AI Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lGSWXLw9dPY ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Fueling AI Data Centers: Behind The Meter Solutions- Part 1" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fueling-ai-data-centers-behind-the-meter-solutions-part-1/ "Behind The Meter Solutions Investment Guide- Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/behind-the-meter-solutions-investment-guide-part-2/ "Productivity On Gilligan's Island: Episode 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/productivity-on-gilligans-island-episode-2/ "Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bitcoin-up-22-has-the-halving-cycle-begun/ --- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NASDAQ Technicals Are Turning Higher," https://youtu.be/33KMo6HoezY ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NASDAQ #StockMarket #TechnologyStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing #Nvidia #NVDA #NvidiaEarnings #AIStocks

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8-27-26 NASDAQ Technicals Are Turning Higher | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2026 4:23

The NASDAQ is showing signs of technical improvement after five straight down days and a significant mean-reversion move. The 20-DMA has moved back above the 50-DMA, a rising trend line is developing, and improving momentum could put recent highs back in play. But this is not an "all clear" for technology stocks. September seasonality, a post-earnings data lull, Fed policy, and upcoming economic reports could keep markets choppy. We look at what the NASDAQ and semiconductor charts are signaling, where momentum may be headed next, and why investors should continue to manage risk despite improving technicals. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/33KMo6HoezY --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bitcoin-up-22-has-the-halving-cycle-begun/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NASDAQ #StockMarket #TechnologyStocks #MarketOutlook #Investing

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8-26-26 Q&A Wednesday - The Biggest Risk to Markets Now

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2026 58:41

Markets are facing a growing list of risks as investors head into the final stretch of summer. Stocks are working through a slow-moving correction, Treasury yields remain elevated, technology leadership is being tested, and the Federal Reserve faces renewed questions about inflation and interest rates. Which risks actually matter for your portfolio, and which are mostly market noise? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your questions, live, as we break down the latest economic data, market signals, Fed policy expectations, bond yields, and geopolitical developments to separate the real threats from the headlines. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Dolly Parton's Passing 1:46 - NVDIA is the Big News Today - will move markets tomorrow 4:34 - Markets Rally and Hold 20-DMA; Mitigating Market Risk 6:38 - NVIDIA Preview 10:26 - Lance's Wardrobe 11:35 - Semi-conductor Strategies 14:44 - 401-k Rotation Strategies 19:52 - Looking at Interest Rate plays - what is your goal? 22:13 - Is the Globalization Narrative breaking down? (TV Pricing & Exporting Inflation, Importing Deflation) 27:46 - Modifying Cap Ex concept in AI business? 28:48 - If the Basis Trade blows up? 29:19 - Barbell Strategies for ten-year term (Value ETF's vs Momentum ETF's) 35:22 - 50-50 portfolio (eating cake every night & not gain weight) 37:47 - Etherium Price at EOY? (you've missed The Move for this year); it is a risk asset 40:01 - Stuck with TMF (leveraged ETF) What Would You Do From here? 44:51 - When a Company is sold, when to get out? 45:24 - Value vs growth 46:04 - NVIDIA, Market Cap Concentration, & Top Ten Stocks 49:01 - What Could Cause a Spike Higher in Yields? 51:50 - Stanley Drunkenmiller vs the Fed: Let the market dictate action 52:49 - Balanced Portfolios at age 80? 55:21 - Sectors most under-valued, over-looked, and over-valued? 56:38 - How much of investing proverbs/rules have come true? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/tESc03T56K4?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ "Three Percent Real TIPS Yields: Boring But Valuable" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/three-percent-real-tips-yields-boring-but-valuable/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test," https://youtu.be/5Dkn-dNU9wA ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NVIDIA #StockMarket #NVDA #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Investing #InterestRates

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8-26-26 NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2026 5:01

Markets are holding the 20-day moving average, but momentum remains under pressure as September seasonality and midterm election risk approach. Investors may want to rebalance, raise stops, and keep some cash available as the market consolidates. Tonight, NVIDIA earnings take center stage. With the stock already pulling back, options pricing in a roughly 5% move, and key technical support below, could NVIDIA's report trigger the next breakout, or will disappointment send shares toward deeper support? Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/5Dkn-dNU9wA --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NVIDIA #StockMarket #NVDA #Investing #MarketOutlook

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8-26-26 Q&A Wednesday: The Biggest Risk to Markets Now

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2026 58:42

Markets are facing a growing list of risks as investors head into the final stretch of summer. Stocks are working through a slow-moving correction, Treasury yields remain elevated, technology leadership is being tested, and the Federal Reserve faces renewed questions about inflation and interest rates. Which risks actually matter for your portfolio, and which are mostly market noise? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your questions, live, as we break down the latest economic data, market signals, Fed policy expectations, bond yields, and geopolitical developments to separate the real threats from the headlines. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Dolly Parton's Passing 1:46 - NVDIA is the Big News Today - will move markets tomorrow 4:34 - Markets Rally and Hold 20-DMA; Mitigating Market Risk 6:38 - NVIDIA Preview 10:26 - Lance's Wardrobe 11:35 - Semi-conductor Strategies 14:44 - 401-k Rotation Strategies 19:52 - Looking at Interest Rate plays - what is your goal? 22:13 - Is the Globalization Narrative breaking down? (TV Pricing & Exporting Inflation, Importing Deflation) 27:46 - Modifying Cap Ex concept in AI business? 28:48 - If the Basis Trade blows up? 29:19 - Barbell Strategies for ten-year term (Value ETF's vs Momentum ETF's) 35:22 - 50-50 portfolio (eating cake every night & not gain weight) 37:47 - Etherium Price at EOY? (you've missed The Move for this year); it is a risk asset 40:01 - Stuck with TMF (leveraged ETF) What Would You Do From here? 44:51 - When a Company is sold, when to get out? 45:24 - Value vs growth 46:04 - NVIDIA, Market Cap Concentration, & Top Ten Stocks 49:01 - What Could Cause a Spike Higher in Yields? 51:50 - Stanley Drunkenmiller vs the Fed: Let the market dictate action 52:49 - Balanced Portfolios at age 80? 55:21 - Sectors most under-valued, over-looked, and over-valued? 56:38 - How much of investing proverbs/rules have come true? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/tESc03T56K4?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ "Three Percent Real TIPS Yields: Boring But Valuable" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/three-percent-real-tips-yields-boring-but-valuable/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test," https://youtu.be/5Dkn-dNU9wA ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NVIDIA #StockMarket #NVDA #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Investing #InterestRates

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8-25-26 Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2026 51:13

Interest rates are rising, long-term bond prices have pulled back, and investors are once again worried that higher Treasury yields could threaten the economy and markets. But what if today's rates aren't historically high at all? After more than a decade of near-zero rates and easy monetary policy, investors may have become accustomed to an environment that was anything but normal. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn put today's interest rates into historical perspective, examine what higher yields really say about inflation, growth, debt, and deficits, and explain why a 5% long-term Treasury yield may not be the crisis many headlines suggest. We'll also look at what the changing rate environment means for stocks, bonds, portfolio risk, and investors deciding whether weakness in longer-duration bonds is a warning—or an opportunity. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Weekly Preview & Treasury General Account Bond Buy Backs 2:04 - Shorting Treasuries & The Hedge Fund Trade 5:37 - Markets Going Thru a Slow-Motion Correction 8:24 - BitCoin Rallies on Bessent Announcement 11:52 - Bonds & Rates: Brake or Break? 19:08 - Rates Are Normal 21:56 - The Primary Determinants that Set Loan Rates (Economic Composite Index) 25:46 - The Effect of Debt on Economy 29:46 - The Negative Multiplier, Measured (Gov't. Debt vs Household Debt) 33:33 - The S&P in 2008? When Markets are Unsustainable 36:58 - $40-trillion (and "Zero") & Shock and Awe 39:40 - Retirees Get Paid to own Treasuries (How Much to Allocate?) 41:57 - Is the Dollar Losing Value? 44:45 - There is Always a Buyer for Debt (Primary Dealers) 47:56 - Fasting w Lance & Christina Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Correction: Patience Pays," https://youtu.be/w_BcRBJ00Io ------- Watch our previous show, "Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?" https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #Bitcoin #MarketCorrection #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Bitcoin #FederalReserve

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8-25-26 Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2026 51:14

Interest rates are rising, long-term bond prices have pulled back, and investors are once again worried that higher Treasury yields could threaten the economy and markets. But what if today's rates aren't historically high at all? After more than a decade of near-zero rates and easy monetary policy, investors may have become accustomed to an environment that was anything but normal. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn put today's interest rates into historical perspective, examine what higher yields really say about inflation, growth, debt, and deficits, and explain why a 5% long-term Treasury yield may not be the crisis many headlines suggest. We'll also look at what the changing rate environment means for stocks, bonds, portfolio risk, and investors deciding whether weakness in longer-duration bonds is a warning—or an opportunity. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Weekly Preview & Treasury General Account Bond Buy Backs 2:04 - Shorting Treasuries & The Hedge Fund Trade 5:37 - Markets Going Thru a Slow-Motion Correction 8:24 - BitCoin Rallies on Bessent Announcement 11:52 - Bonds & Rates: Brake or Break? 19:08 - Rates Are Normal 21:56 - The Primary Determinants that Set Loan Rates (Economic Composite Index) 25:46 - The Effect of Debt on Economy 29:46 - The Negative Multiplier, Measured (Gov't. Debt vs Household Debt) 33:33 - The S&P in 2008? When Markets are Unsustainable 36:58 - $40-trillion (and "Zero") & Shock and Awe 39:40 - Retirees Get Paid to own Treasuries (How Much to Allocate?) 41:57 - Is the Dollar Losing Value? 44:45 - There is Always a Buyer for Debt (Primary Dealers) 47:56 - Fasting w Lance & Christina Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Correction: Patience Pays," https://youtu.be/w_BcRBJ00Io ------- Watch our previous show, "Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?" https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #Bitcoin #MarketCorrection #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Bitcoin #FederalReserve

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8-25-26 Market Correction: Patience Pays | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2026 5:31

Markets are working through a slow, controlled correction as seasonal weakness and momentum sell signals pressure the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. With September approaching, investors may be tempted to react as some positions lag while others rally. The key is patience. Corrections are a normal part of the market cycle, and sometimes the best move is no move at all. Plus, Bitcoin's sharp rally has pushed short-term momentum and relative strength to extreme overbought levels. We discuss why taking some profits now, then waiting for a pullback before adding exposure, may help manage risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/w_BcRBJ00Io --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #Bitcoin #MarketCorrection

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8-24-26 Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2026 43:25

Are Treasury yields still sending investors a reliable signal about inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policy, or is the massive basis trade distorting the message? Lance Roberts explains how the basis trade works, why it matters for Treasury yields, and whether investors can still trust the bond market as an economic and market signal. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - Kevin Warsh + Nvidia Report = Volatility? 5:28 - Market Deviations & Bollinger Bands 13:07 - The Basis Trade & Interest Rates 16:17 - What is a Basis Point? 21:31 - Are Interest Rates Really Telling us What's Going on in Markets? 22:42 - What's the Risk/What Happens When Basis Trade Unwinds? 26:47 - Does Kevin Warsh have Enough Time to Fix It? 28:28 - What Happened on Liberation Day 29:39 - What to Do About It 34:29 - The Psychology of Buyers & Sellers: The Houston Housing Market 37:85 - The Index is the Index Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-basis-trade-is-the-bond-market-signal-distorted/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Bollinger Bands Are Flashing a Warning," https://youtu.be/HA5OZbl3a4Y ------- Watch our previous show, "The Best Retirement Head Start for Your Kids," https://youtube.com/live/IqyxMopn1Uw?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #BollingerBands #Investing #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #BasisTrade #FederalReserve

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8-24-26 Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2026 43:26

Are Treasury yields still sending investors a reliable signal about inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policy, or is the massive basis trade distorting the message? Lance Roberts explains how the basis trade works, why it matters for Treasury yields, and whether investors can still trust the bond market as an economic and market signal. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - Kevin Warsh + Nvidia Report = Volatility? 5:28 - Market Deviations & Bollinger Bands 13:07 - The Basis Trade & Interest Rates 16:17 - What is a Basis Point? 21:31 - Are Interest Rates Really Telling us What's Going on in Markets? 22:42 - What's the Risk/What Happens When Basis Trade Unwinds? 26:47 - Does Kevin Warsh have Enough Time to Fix It? 28:28 - What Happened on Liberation Day 29:39 - What to Do About It 34:29 - The Psychology of Buyers & Sellers: The Houston Housing Market 37:85 - The Index is the Index Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-basis-trade-is-the-bond-market-signal-distorted/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Bollinger Bands Are Flashing a Warning," https://youtu.be/HA5OZbl3a4Y ------- Watch our previous show, "The Best Retirement Head Start for Your Kids," https://youtube.com/live/IqyxMopn1Uw?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #BollingerBands #Investing #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #BasisTrade #FederalReserve

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8-24-26 Bollinger Bands Are Flashing a Warning | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2026 6:26

Markets are pulling back toward key moving averages as momentum sell signals emerge across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, small-caps, and mid-caps. Lance Roberts explains how Bollinger Bands and standard deviations can identify overbought and oversold conditions, guide portfolio rebalancing, and help investors determine when to trim positions, raise cash, or look for buying opportunities. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/HA5OZbl3a4Y --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #BollingerBands #Investing #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement

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Risk Of A 10% Market Correction Now Uncomfortably High | Lance Roberts

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2026 89:46

REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceAfter a rip-roaring rally that began in April, sending the market to new all-time highs, the S&P is now cooling off.Is this just a short breather before stocks race back to new highs soon?Probably not, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts.He assesses that the downside risks outweigh the upside ones, and that a correction of about 10% or so is the most likely outcome over coming weeks.He and I discuss why he thinks so, as well as the US Treasury's version of Operation Twist that launched this week, the future massive potential impact of stablecoins and, as usual, Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap#marketcorrection #inflation #stablecoins _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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8-20-26 Is Treasury Bailing Out the Bond Market

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2026 43:46

Is the Treasury stepping in to rescue the bond market, or is that the wrong way to interpret its purchases of long-term Treasuries? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine why Treasury purchases are not necessarily the same as Federal Reserve quantitative easing, how issuing Treasury debt to fund an asset swap differs from creating new money, and what this could mean for bond yields, inflation, and investors. We'll also look at the changing relationship between Treasury bonds and gold. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - Treasury Action & FOMC Meeting Minutes 4:19 - Market Rally on Debt Buy Back 10:03 - Are High Oil Prices Deflationary? 11:13 - Debt & GDP 13:53 - Federal Debt as % of GDP 17:51 - Selling Treasuries is Not a Problem 18:31 - What Happens if Gov't Stops Spending 20:55 - The Treasury Buy Back Plan 24:59 - The History of Buy Back Operations 28:12 - The Basis Trade 31:52 - The Term Premium Model 36:09 - What Would Cause Basis Trade to Unwind? 39:18 - When the Gov't Cuts Spending Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Treasury Buybacks Spark a Market Bounce," https://youtu.be/pY-lAMlQo7M -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The US Treasury Doubles Down On Buybacks" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-us-treasury-doubles-down-on-buybacks/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Are Rising Rates a Market Warning?" https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #MarketVolatility #Investing #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #GovernmentSpending #InterestRates

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8-20-26 Is Treasury Bailing Out the Bond Market?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2026 43:47

Is the Treasury stepping in to rescue the bond market, or is that the wrong way to interpret its purchases of long-term Treasuries? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine why Treasury purchases are not necessarily the same as Federal Reserve quantitative easing, how issuing Treasury debt to fund an asset swap differs from creating new money, and what this could mean for bond yields, inflation, and investors. We'll also look at the changing relationship between Treasury bonds and gold. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - Treasury Action & FOMC Meeting Minutes 4:19 - Market Rally on Debt Buy Back 10:03 - Are High Oil Prices Deflationary? 11:13 - Debt & GDP 13:53 - Federal Debt as % of GDP 17:51 - Selling Treasuries is Not a Problem 18:31 - What Happens if Gov't Stops Spending 20:55 - The Treasury Buy Back Plan 24:59 - The History of Buy Back Operations 28:12 - The Basis Trade 31:52 - The Term Premium Model 36:09 - What Would Cause Basis Trade to Unwind? 39:18 - When the Gov't Cuts Spending Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Treasury Buybacks Spark a Market Bounce," https://youtu.be/pY-lAMlQo7M -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The US Treasury Doubles Down On Buybacks" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-us-treasury-doubles-down-on-buybacks/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Are Rising Rates a Market Warning?" https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #MarketVolatility #Investing #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #GovernmentSpending #InterestRates

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8-20-26 Treasury Buybacks Spark a Market Bounce | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2026 4:55

Treasury debt buybacks helped push bond yields lower and stocks higher, but the market's technical setup still warrants caution. The 10-Year Treasury yield remains on a sell signal, while the S&P 500 is nearing a momentum sell signal with downside risk toward its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, volatility remains extremely compressed, investor complacency is elevated, and cheap portfolio hedges could become increasingly valuable. With thin August trading and mid-term election uncertainty ahead, investors should manage exposure and prepare for a potential pickup in volatility before the stronger year-end seasonal period. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: hhttps://youtu.be/pY-lAMlQo7M --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #MarketVolatility #Investing

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8-19-26 Q&A Wednesday - Are Rising Rates a Market Warning

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2026 41:38

More investors are turning to TikTok, YouTube, and other social-media platforms for financial advice. But how do you separate useful financial education from bad advice, speculation, and outright scams? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn discuss how to evaluate financial advice online, the warning signs investors should watch for, and why popularity, followers, and flashy lifestyles aren't substitutes for expertise. Social media can help people become better investors—but only if they know whom to trust. 0:00 INTRO 0:57 - FOMC Meeting Minutes Preview & Weaker Economic Data 3:26 - Will Earnings Tailwinds Fade in 2207? 5:12 - Market Deviations Continue - Downside Risk Remains 10:15 - Bond Yields & Abnormal Interest Rates (article coming) 16:45 - Why the National Debt is not a Factor in Interest Rates 19:42 - Momentum ETF's & Roth IRA's 27:47 - Shorting Strategies post-IPO? 30:10 - First Houses & Starter Homes 33:27 - Things Aren't That Bad... 37:37 - Buying Bonds and paying accrued interest 38:18 - Putting Money in 401-k 38:40 - Buying Energy Stocks Now? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "September Rally Test Ahead" https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "SpaceX IPO: Should I Buy It, Or Wait?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/spacex-ipo-should-i-buy-it-or-wait/ "Leveraged ETFs: Math Often Trumps Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leveraged-etfs-math-often-trumps-hype/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Can You Trust Financial Advice on Social Media? https://youtube.com/live/v6Wy7iLl-gQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #SpaceX #HomeBuyers

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8-19-26 Q&A Wednesday: Are Rising Rates a Market Warning?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2026 41:39

More investors are turning to TikTok, YouTube, and other social-media platforms for financial advice. But how do you separate useful financial education from bad advice, speculation, and outright scams? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn discuss how to evaluate financial advice online, the warning signs investors should watch for, and why popularity, followers, and flashy lifestyles aren't substitutes for expertise. Social media can help people become better investors—but only if they know whom to trust. 0:00 INTRO 0:57 - FOMC Meeting Minutes Preview & Weaker Economic Data 3:26 - Will Earnings Tailwinds Fade in 2207? 5:12 - Market Deviations Continue - Downside Risk Remains 10:15 - Bond Yields & Abnormal Interest Rates (article coming) 16:45 - Why the National Debt is not a Factor in Interest Rates 19:42 - Momentum ETF's & Roth IRA's 27:47 - Shorting Strategies post-IPO? 30:10 - First Houses & Starter Homes 33:27 - Things Aren't That Bad... 37:37 - Buying Bonds and paying accrued interest 38:18 - Putting Money in 401-k 38:40 - Buying Energy Stocks Now? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "September Rally Test Ahead" https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "SpaceX IPO: Should I Buy It, Or Wait?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/spacex-ipo-should-i-buy-it-or-wait/ "Leveraged ETFs: Math Often Trumps Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leveraged-etfs-math-often-trumps-hype/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Can You Trust Financial Advice on Social Media? https://youtube.com/live/v6Wy7iLl-gQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #SpaceX #HomeBuyers

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8-19-26 September Rally Test Ahead Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2026 4:07

Markets are consolidating after Tuesday's technology-led selloff, but the risk/reward setup is becoming less attractive. With the S&P 500 roughly 10% above key moving averages, upside targets near 8,000 offer considerably less potential than the downside risk of a pullback toward the 50-DMA. Momentum is nearing a sell signal as rising interest rates, higher oil prices, inflation pressures, Jackson Hole, the next Fed meeting, and midterm-cycle volatility converge. A pullback could ultimately create opportunity, but for now, taking profits, managing portfolio risk, and avoiding aggressive additions through September remain the focus. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Record Highs: Should You Chase The Rally?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/record-highs-should-you-chase-the-rally/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve

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8-18-26 Can You Trust Financial Advice on Social Media

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2026 48:42

More investors are turning to TikTok, YouTube, and other social-media platforms for financial advice. But how do you separate useful financial education from bad advice, speculation, and outright scams? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn discuss how to evaluate financial advice online, the warning signs investors should watch for, and why popularity, followers, and flashy lifestyles aren't substitutes for expertise. Social media can help people become better investors—but only if they know whom to trust. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - Don't Read Too Much Into Indexes 3:14 - Cap-X Spending: Space-X Data Center Grimes County Tax Abatement 5:14 - Market Factors & Dynamics (Momentum Index, Semi-conductor Index, IGV, Value Index, MGK Mega-cap stocks) 11:32 - The Myths of Long Term Investing - Pt-1 13:37 - The Great Wealth Transfer Fail 18:13 - Financial Advice on Social Media 19:47 - Sports Betting as Part of Financial Plan? 21:00 - How We Differ from the Other Guys on Social Media 24:26 - Four Buckets of Social Media Influencers 28:13 - What are They Selling? (Our stuff is free) 30:58 - The Thing About Newsletter Recommendations 32:05 - How Much Risk Can You Afford (and how will you behave)? 34:23 - The $3-T problem: Investors Still Holding Cash? 35:33 - Why the Negativity About Bonds? 38:56 - Why the Prices of Bonds Move (& the home buying conundrum) 43:25 - Looking at our allocations 44:25 - The "Cash on the Sidelines" Myth Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Why Your Portfolio Doesn't Match the Market," https://youtu.be/fYCwotrLSAM -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/v6Wy7iLl-gQ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Record Highs: Should You Chase the Rally? https://youtube.com/live/c44_giKICEY?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #PortfolioManagement #SP500 #FinancialPlanning #SP500 #MarketOutlook #MarketRally #FinancialAdvice #SocialMedia

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8-18-26 Can You Trust Financial Advice on Social Media?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2026 48:43

More investors are turning to TikTok, YouTube, and other social-media platforms for financial advice. But how do you separate useful financial education from bad advice, speculation, and outright scams? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn discuss how to evaluate financial advice online, the warning signs investors should watch for, and why popularity, followers, and flashy lifestyles aren't substitutes for expertise. Social media can help people become better investors—but only if they know whom to trust. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - Don't Read Too Much Into Indexes 3:14 - Cap-X Spending: Space-X Data Center Grimes County Tax Abatement 5:14 - Market Factors & Dynamics (Momentum Index, Semi-conductor Index, IGV, Value Index, MGK Mega-cap stocks) 11:32 - The Myths of Long Term Investing - Pt-1 13:37 - The Great Wealth Transfer Fail 18:13 - Financial Advice on Social Media 19:47 - Sports Betting as Part of Financial Plan? 21:00 - How We Differ from the Other Guys on Social Media 24:26 - Four Buckets of Social Media Influencers 28:13 - What are They Selling? (Our stuff is free) 30:58 - The Thing About Newsletter Recommendations 32:05 - How Much Risk Can You Afford (and how will you behave)? 34:23 - The $3-T problem: Investors Still Holding Cash? 35:33 - Why the Negativity About Bonds? 38:56 - Why the Prices of Bonds Move (& the home buying conundrum) 43:25 - Looking at our allocations 44:25 - The "Cash on the Sidelines" Myth Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Why Your Portfolio Doesn't Match the Market," https://youtu.be/fYCwotrLSAM -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/v6Wy7iLl-gQ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Record Highs: Should You Chase the Rally? https://youtube.com/live/c44_giKICEY?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #PortfolioManagement #SP500 #FinancialPlanning #SP500 #MarketOutlook #MarketRally #FinancialAdvice #SocialMedia

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Why Your Portfolio Doesn't Match the Market | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2026 5:11

Why does your portfolio sometimes look nothing like the S&P 500? The answer often comes down to allocation. Semiconductor and mega-cap stocks can drive headline market returns, while value-oriented sectors may deliver lower returns with greater stability. We look at momentum, semiconductors, mega-caps, and value stocks to explain why portfolio performance can diverge sharply from the broader market. Understanding what you own, and how those holdings behave across market cycles, can matter more than simply comparing your returns with an index. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/fYCwotrLSAM --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #PortfolioManagement #SP500 #FinancialPlanning

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8-17-26 Record Highs - Should You Chase the Rally

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2026 41:11

Stocks are back near record highs, the trend remains bullish, and market breadth is strong. But after a powerful run, the S&P 500 is stretched well above its major moving averages, while investor sentiment and money flows have reached extreme levels. Lance Roberts reviews Yen Intervention Narrative amd examines what is driving the rally, why retail investors are piling back into previously beaten-down trades, and whether strong earnings, buybacks, and broad participation can keep markets moving higher. Rebalancing, taking profits in oversized positions, and maintaining discipline may be more important than trying to squeeze every last percentage point out of the rally. 0:00 INTRO 0:54 - 20-Weeks Until Christmas & Pumpkin Spice 2:00 - Target, WalMart, & Retail Spending 6:59 - Markets Post Third Week of Gains 9:54 - Volatility & Risk/Reward 13:07 - Your vs You're & UR 14:45 - Yen Interventions & Dollar Swaps 19:48 - The 2011 Japan Crisis 28:49 - Do You Chase this Rally? 34:04 - Money Flow & Market Breadth 38:54 - What You Should Do Next Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Is the Market's Risk-Reward Getting Worse? https://youtu.be/zadlkEF7iN0 -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/c44_giKICEY?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yen Intervention Narrative: What's True And Not" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yen-intervention-narrative-whats-true-and-not/ "Record Highs: Should You Chase The Rally?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/record-highs-should-you-chase-the-rally/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch our previous show, "The Retirement Magic Number Trap" https://youtube.com/live/vjIZ60E3B0I?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #MarketRally #SP500 #YenIntervention

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8-17-26 Record Highs: Should You Chase the Rally?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2026 41:12

Stocks are back near record highs, the trend remains bullish, and market breadth is strong. But after a powerful run, the S&P 500 is stretched well above its major moving averages, while investor sentiment and money flows have reached extreme levels. Lance Roberts reviews Yen Intervention Narrative amd examines what is driving the rally, why retail investors are piling back into previously beaten-down trades, and whether strong earnings, buybacks, and broad participation can keep markets moving higher. Rebalancing, taking profits in oversized positions, and maintaining discipline may be more important than trying to squeeze every last percentage point out of the rally. 0:00 INTRO 0:54 - 20-Weeks Until Christmas & Pumpkin Spice 2:00 - Target, WalMart, & Retail Spending 6:59 - Markets Post Third Week of Gains 9:54 - Volatility & Risk/Reward 13:07 - Your vs You're & UR 14:45 - Yen Interventions & Dollar Swaps 19:48 - The 2011 Japan Crisis 28:49 - Do You Chase this Rally? 34:04 - Money Flow & Market Breadth 38:54 - What You Should Do Next Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Is the Market's Risk-Reward Getting Worse? https://youtu.be/zadlkEF7iN0 -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/c44_giKICEY?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yen Intervention Narrative: What's True And Not" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yen-intervention-narrative-whats-true-and-not/ "Record Highs: Should You Chase The Rally?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/record-highs-should-you-chase-the-rally/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch our previous show, "The Retirement Magic Number Trap" https://youtube.com/live/vjIZ60E3B0I?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #MarketRally #SP500 #YenIntervention

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8-17-26 Is the Market's Risk-Reward Getting Worse? | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2026 4:43

Markets have posted three straight weeks of gains, but the risk-reward equation is becoming less attractive. With the S&P 500 extended above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, potential upside may be limited compared with the downside of a normal market correction. Meanwhile, volatility remains unusually compressed, puts are relatively inexpensive, and seasonal risks are approaching. Lance Roberts explains why this combination warrants attention, why portfolios were recently rebalanced, and why inexpensive hedges may make sense as insurance against a volatility spike. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/zadlkEF7iN0 --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Record Highs: Should You Chase The Rally?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/record-highs-should-you-chase-the-rally/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement

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Recent Market Breakout Running Out Of Steam? | Lance Roberts

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2026 96:43

Stocks are now "stuck" in a trading range after their recent upside breakout.Is the rally running out of steam?Or are new highs ahead, perhaps after a brief re-test?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the future of AI stocks, the latest employment & CPI data and, of course, his firm's latest trades -- of which he made many over the past week.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.If your work depends on important conversations and making informed decisions, Plaud can help you capture what matters and revisit it when you need it most. Visit https://plaud.ai/adam and use code adam for 15% off all Plaud devices. That's P-L-A-U-D dot A-I slash adam.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #aistocks #inflation _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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8-13-26 Does the Inflation Report Give the Fed More Time?

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2026 42:41

The latest inflation report came in largely as expected, giving the Federal Reserve something increasingly valuable: more time. Inflation was neither soft enough to eliminate concerns about price pressures nor hot enough to force the Fed's hand. That leaves investors asking what comes next for interest rates, the economy, and markets. Lance Roberts examines what the latest inflation data means for Fed policy, whether officials can remain patient, and what investors should watch as the debate over inflation and interest rates continues. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - CPI & Bond Auction Action 4:00 - Markets Are Stretched 9:31 - Lebo Merch 11:03 - CPI, Inflation, & Oil Prices 12:31 - What The Fed Should Do 16:08 - Core Inflation 18:01 - Inflation vs Prices 20:29 - Why Inflation is Important 21:01 - Why Leave Your Money at Old Company? 21:55 - Why Inflation Matters 24:48 - What the Fed May Do in September 28:31 - CPI Measurement & Boskin Commission 32:09 - The AI "Circular Financing" Narrative Debunked 35:43 - AI Spend per Employee per Month (Chart) 38:19 - AI Winners & Losers Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Retail Investors Are Chasing Again," https://youtu.be/1sKwI4gscZo -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/Hl6lVuNeTYM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Wall Street To Support Data Center Growth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wall-street-to-support-data-center-growth/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday - Is Inflation Back in Control?" https://youtu.be/ygeDd0d0XF8 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates

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8-13-26 Retail Investors Are Chasing Again | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2026 4:27

Markets remain near record highs, but after a powerful run since April, the S&P 500 is trading more than two standard deviations above trend and has stalled in a tight range. At the same time, retail investors are aggressively buying dips and returning to many of the stocks and sectors that previously burned them. That enthusiasm can keep markets elevated, but stretched conditions warrant caution. As midterm elections approach, investors should avoid chasing the rally, rebalance where necessary, and focus on managing portfolio risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/1sKwI4gscZo --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Wall Street To Support Data Center Growth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wall-street-to-support-data-center-growth/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement

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8-13-26 Does the Inflation Report Give the Fed More Time?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2026 42:42

The latest inflation report came in largely as expected, giving the Federal Reserve something increasingly valuable: more time. Inflation was neither soft enough to eliminate concerns about price pressures nor hot enough to force the Fed's hand. That leaves investors asking what comes next for interest rates, the economy, and markets. Lance Roberts examines what the latest inflation data means for Fed policy, whether officials can remain patient, and what investors should watch as the debate over inflation and interest rates continues. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - CPI & Bond Auction Action 4:00 - Markets Are Stretched 9:31 - Lebo Merch 11:03 - CPI, Inflation, & Oil Prices 12:31 - What The Fed Should Do 16:08 - Core Inflation 18:01 - Inflation vs Prices 20:29 - Why Inflation is Important 21:01 - Why Leave Your Money at Old Company? 21:55 - Why Inflation Matters 24:48 - What the Fed May Do in September 28:31 - CPI Measurement & Boskin Commission 32:09 - The AI "Circular Financing" Narrative Debunked 35:43 - AI Spend per Employee per Month (Chart) 38:19 - AI Winners & Losers Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Retail Investors Are Chasing Again," https://youtu.be/1sKwI4gscZo -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/Hl6lVuNeTYM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Wall Street To Support Data Center Growth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wall-street-to-support-data-center-growth/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday - Is Inflation Back in Control?" https://youtu.be/ygeDd0d0XF8 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates

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8-12-26 Q&A Wednesday - Is Inflation Back in Control?

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2026 42:06

Fresh inflation data later this morning puts the Federal Reserve and the economy back in focus: Can inflation continue to cool despite higher energy prices? Is the weakening labor market increasing pressure on the Fed to cut rates? And with markets near record highs, should investors remain bullish, rebalance portfolios, or prepare for more volatility? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your live questions on inflation, interest rates, the economy, markets, portfolio risk, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - Inflation Day - CPI Preview 3:45 - Earning Season wrapping - earnings beats were high, buy backs return 4:35 - Markets Bank & Forth, consolidation continues 5:19 - Bullish Trend Continues - focus on what matters 9:27 - Bloomberg Poll - Living On Parents' Money & Adulting 14:57 - When buying stocks, how much does CEO matter? 17:07 - Tracking Gold Prices/Oil Prices/Inflation 18:25 - K-shaped Economy: When will weakening consumer matter? (Never bet against the consumer) 20:22 - AI Data Center Investment instruments: Revenue-generating asset class? 22:55 - Capital Gains Tax changes' effects on Boomer Retirement? 24:15 - Individual Bonds vs Bond Funds (SimpleVisor) 26:34 - US Treasuries & Yen intervention (FIMA Facility) 29:48 - Bond Yields at 5%+ - Good Time to Buy? 30:54 - CAPE Yields 31:23 - Are Buybacks Losing their Effectiveness? 33:20 - Is there circular-financing going on with Nvidia? 36:34 - What do you consider a long-duration bond? (Duration exceeds needs) 38:49 - What about Corporate Bonds? 39:56 - Earnings are fake? (Microsoft Operating Income) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Why Bearish Headlines Keep Losing," https://youtu.be/ygeDd0d0XF8 -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/Hl6lVuNeTYM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Abel Takes Charge at Berkshire Hathaway" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/abel-takes-charge-at-berkshire-hathaway/ -------- Watch our previous show, "What Really Drives Markets?" https://youtube.com/live/c9cOlFVLGoU ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #Earnings #PortfolioManagement #Inflation #FederalReserve #Economy

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8-12-26 Q&A Wednesday - Is Inflation Back in Control?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2026 42:07

Fresh inflation data later this morning puts the Federal Reserve and the economy back in focus: Can inflation continue to cool despite higher energy prices? Is the weakening labor market increasing pressure on the Fed to cut rates? And with markets near record highs, should investors remain bullish, rebalance portfolios, or prepare for more volatility? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your live questions on inflation, interest rates, the economy, markets, portfolio risk, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - Inflation Day - CPI Preview 3:45 - Earning Season wrapping - earnings beats were high, buy backs return 4:35 - Markets Bank & Forth, consolidation continues 5:19 - Bullish Trend Continues - focus on what matters 9:27 - Bloomberg Poll - Living On Parents' Money & Adulting 14:57 - When buying stocks, how much does CEO matter? 17:07 - Tracking Gold Prices/Oil Prices/Inflation 18:25 - K-shaped Economy: When will weakening consumer matter? (Never bet against the consumer) 20:22 - AI Data Center Investment instruments: Revenue-generating asset class? 22:55 - Capital Gains Tax changes' effects on Boomer Retirement? 24:15 - Individual Bonds vs Bond Funds (SimpleVisor) 26:34 - US Treasuries & Yen intervention (FIMA Facility) 29:48 - Bond Yields at 5%+ - Good Time to Buy? 30:54 - CAPE Yields 31:23 - Are Buybacks Losing their Effectiveness? 33:20 - Is there circular-financing going on with Nvidia? 36:34 - What do you consider a long-duration bond? (Duration exceeds needs) 38:49 - What about Corporate Bonds? 39:56 - Earnings are fake? (Microsoft Operating Income) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Why Bearish Headlines Keep Losing," https://youtu.be/ygeDd0d0XF8 -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/Hl6lVuNeTYM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Abel Takes Charge at Berkshire Hathaway" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/abel-takes-charge-at-berkshire-hathaway/ -------- Watch our previous show, "What Really Drives Markets?" https://youtube.com/live/c9cOlFVLGoU ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #Earnings #PortfolioManagement #Inflation #FederalReserve #Economy

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8-12-26 Why Bearish Headlines Keep Losing | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2026 3:52

Markets are consolidating after their recent surge, but the underlying trend remains bullish. Momentum is on a buy signal, moving averages are rising, earnings remain strong, credit spreads are tight, and liquidity continues to support stocks. From tariffs and geopolitical conflicts to recession fears, bearish narratives have repeatedly challenged investors over the past five years. Yet staying out of the market because of scary headlines has been costly. Lance Roberts explains why earnings, liquidity, credit conditions, and market trends matter more than predictions, and why investors should focus on the data rather than the narrative. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/ygeDd0d0XF8 --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #Earnings #PortfolioManagement

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8-11-26 What Really Drives Markets

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2026 46:03

What really drives bull and bear markets? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine why corporate earnings remain one of the most important forces behind market performance. Rising profits can support bull markets, while significant earnings declines have historically accompanied the most severe bear markets. We also examine calls for “sound money” and a return to the gold standard. While concerns over debt, deficits, inflation, and dollar debasement are legitimate, a gold-backed dollar could have significant consequences for credit, economic growth, and investors. The key is separating economic concerns from the fundamental forces actually driving markets. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - CPI Preview & Economic Numbers 4:51 - Markets Break Out to All-new Highs 10:15 - Birthday's & Beach Trips 12:13 - Emails to Lance - Back to Gold? 15:28 - Why We Invest 17:46 - Short-run Price Uncertainty 20:26 - The US as Reserve Currency of the World 21:30 - Real GDP vs Debt 24:38 - The Gold Standard Trap 25:53 - Gold's Role in Your Portfolio 29:26 - Earnings & Valuations - What to Pay Attention To? 31:57 - Markets are Constantly Pricing-in Earnings Expectations 33:17 - Earnings & Multiplier Performance History 34:56 - How We Rebalanced - Black Rock vs Goldman 36:16 - When Earnings Fall (chart) 39:05 - Credit Spread - The Differential Between Yields 43:02 - AI Credit Spreads are a Small Part of Market Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Market Highs Come With a Warning" https://youtu.be/3RiOabBiud4 -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/c9cOlFVLGoU ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wage-growth-as-a-leading-inflation-indicator/ "Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sound-money-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/ "Earnings Drive Both Bull & Bear Markets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/earnings-drive-both-bull-bear-markets/ "Leveraged ETFs: Math Often Trumps Hype" -------- Watch our previous show, "Internet Scams You Need to Know - The Ari Schwartz Interview https://youtube.com/live/Azt1_vs16bA?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #MarketRisk #Volatility #Earnings #Gold #MarketOutlook

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8-11-26 Market Highs Come With a Warning | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2026 4:39

Markets have broken out to new all-time highs after two months of consolidation, a bullish development that could support higher prices over the next six to twelve months. But the rapid advance has also pushed markets back toward overbought conditions. Volatility is deeply suppressed, investor fear is scarce, and money flow and market breadth have surged toward levels where they have historically peaked. That does not mean a market crash is coming, but it does argue for greater attention to portfolio risk. We explain why the longer-term outlook remains bullish, what could trigger a correction, and which market internals we're watching next. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/3RiOabBiud4 --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Leveraged ETFs: Math Often Trumps Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leveraged-etfs-math-often-trumps-hype/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #MarketRisk #Volatility

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8-11-26 What Really Drives Markets?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2026 46:04

What really drives bull and bear markets? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine why corporate earnings remain one of the most important forces behind market performance. Rising profits can support bull markets, while significant earnings declines have historically accompanied the most severe bear markets. We also examine calls for "sound money" and a return to the gold standard. While concerns over debt, deficits, inflation, and dollar debasement are legitimate, a gold-backed dollar could have significant consequences for credit, economic growth, and investors. The key is separating economic concerns from the fundamental forces actually driving markets. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - CPI Preview & Economic Numbers 4:51 - Markets Break Out to All-new Highs 10:15 - Birthday's & Beach Trips 12:13 - Emails to Lance - Back to Gold? 15:28 - Why We Invest 17:46 - Short-run Price Uncertainty 20:26 - The US as Reserve Currency of the World 21:30 - Real GDP vs Debt 24:38 - The Gold Standard Trap 25:53 - Gold's Role in Your Portfolio 29:26 - Earnings & Valuations - What to Pay Attention To? 31:57 - Markets are Constantly Pricing-in Earnings Expectations 33:17 - Earnings & Multiplier Performance History 34:56 - How We Rebalanced - Black Rock vs Goldman 36:16 - When Earnings Fall (chart) 39:05 - Credit Spread - The Differential Between Yields 43:02 - AI Credit Spreads are a Small Part of Market Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Market Highs Come With a Warning" https://youtu.be/3RiOabBiud4 -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/c9cOlFVLGoU ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wage-growth-as-a-leading-inflation-indicator/ "Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sound-money-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/ "Earnings Drive Both Bull & Bear Markets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/earnings-drive-both-bull-bear-markets/ "Leveraged ETFs: Math Often Trumps Hype" -------- Watch our previous show, "Internet Scams You Need to Know - The Ari Schwartz Interview https://youtube.com/live/Azt1_vs16bA?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #MarketRisk #Volatility #Earnings #Gold #MarketOutlook

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8-6-26 Hidden AI Debt - Is the Risk Overblown

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2026 40:28

Has Wall Street been looking at hyperscaler debt all wrong? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine claims that the "hidden debt" of AI hyperscalers has surged to $1.65 trillion through off-balance-sheet obligations, including long-term leases and infrastructure commitments. But does that mean the AI investment thesis is breaking down? We'll separate the headlines from the fundamentals by comparing the financial strength of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. While hidden obligations deserve attention, not all debt carries the same risk, and not every hyperscaler should be viewed through the same lens. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - ISM Looking Good, MFG at 4-year High 4:13 - Markets Take a Rest - time to rebalance? 9:27 - Forward Returns After Breakout to New Highs 14:04 - Open Source AI vs Closed Source AI 17:18 - Who Benefits, Regardless of Source? (Who is the common denominator?) 22:31 - Hyperscaler Bear Porn - Look at the debt 24:53 - A Basket of Hyperscalers Does Not an Index Make 27:35 - What Does "Off Balance Sheet" Mean? (There Are Three Types) 28:27 - Data Center Leasing 30:32 - Joint Ventures 30:55 - Chip Leasing 35:20 - Listen to the Markets 38:34 - Busting Narratives; don't believe the hype Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/HeU8LWC2rfo?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Palantir Earnings Provide Hope For The Software Sector" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/palantir-earnings-provide-hope-for-the-software-sector/ "Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong – Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/hidden-debt-is-our-hyperscaler-thesis-wrong-part-2/ "Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit: Really?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/carnage-in-hyperscaler-credit-really/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Time to Rebalance?" https://youtu.be/y7Er-AsOkFc ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Market Questions Answered" https://youtube.com/live/9KGokK9tGuA ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #PortfolioManagement #RiskManagement #MarketOutlook #ArtificialIntelligence #Technology #FinancialPlanning

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8-6-26 Time to Rebalance? | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2026 4:12

The S&P 500 has broken out to fresh all-time highs after months of consolidation, triggering a new momentum buy signal. But after one of the strongest five-day rallies since April 2025, should investors keep buying, or start taking profits? In today's Before the Bell, we discuss why this is an ideal time to review your portfolio's risk, rebalance strategically, and trim oversized winners. We explain why rebalancing shouldn't be mechanical, how to distinguish quality companies from long-term laggards, and why understanding why a stock is underperforming matters just as much as its valuation. We also examine surging call-option activity, declining volatility, and why a healthy pullback would be normal after such a powerful advance. Learn how disciplined profit-taking and thoughtful portfolio management can help reduce stress during the market's next consolidation or correction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/y7Er-AsOkFc --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #PortfolioManagement #RiskManagement #MarketOutlook

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8-6-26 Hidden AI Debt: Is the Risk Overblown?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2026 40:29

Has Wall Street been looking at hyperscaler debt all wrong? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine claims that the "hidden debt" of AI hyperscalers has surged to $1.65 trillion through off-balance-sheet obligations, including long-term leases and infrastructure commitments. But does that mean the AI investment thesis is breaking down? We'll separate the headlines from the fundamentals by comparing the financial strength of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. While hidden obligations deserve attention, not all debt carries the same risk, and not every hyperscaler should be viewed through the same lens. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - ISM Looking Good, MFG at 4-year High 4:13 - Markets Take a Rest - time to rebalance? 9:27 - Forward Returns After Breakout to New Highs 14:04 - Open Source AI vs Closed Source AI 17:18 - Who Benefits, Regardless of Source? (Who is the common denominator?) 22:31 - Hyperscaler Bear Porn - Look at the debt 24:53 - A Basket of Hyperscalers Does Not an Index Make 27:35 - What Does "Off Balance Sheet" Mean? (There Are Three Types) 28:27 - Data Center Leasing 30:32 - Joint Ventures 30:55 - Chip Leasing 35:20 - Listen to the Markets 38:34 - Busting Narratives; don't believe the hype Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/HeU8LWC2rfo?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Palantir Earnings Provide Hope For The Software Sector" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/palantir-earnings-provide-hope-for-the-software-sector/ "Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong – Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/hidden-debt-is-our-hyperscaler-thesis-wrong-part-2/ "Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit: Really?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/carnage-in-hyperscaler-credit-really/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Time to Rebalance?" https://youtu.be/y7Er-AsOkFc ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Market Questions Answered" https://youtube.com/live/9KGokK9tGuA ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #PortfolioManagement #RiskManagement #MarketOutlook #ArtificialIntelligence #Technology #FinancialPlanning

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8-5-26 Q&A Wednesday - Market Questions Answered

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2026 49:29

It's Q&A Wednesday, and we're answering your live chat questions on today's biggest investing, market, and economic topics. With the S&P 500 near record highs after weeks of consolidation, investors are asking what comes next. Is this breakout sustainable, or are markets setting up for another bout of volatility? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff discuss market leadership, interest rates, inflation, AI, bonds, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and whatever else is on your mind. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - AMD, Eli Lilly Earnings & Markets' New High 2:49 - Strait of Hormuz/Iran & Headlines 4:24 - Economic Data Weakens - JOLTS report 5:11 - The Thing About Consolidations & Breakouts 7:54 - Interest rates about to trigger bond buy signal 10:00 - Coffee & Keeping Lance Around 10:51 - Market Behavior & Investment Sentiment 12:19 - Core CPI vs Fed Funds Rate: Is the Fed wrong or the bond market wrong? 15:47 - Using Stablecoin to purchase international stocks 18:05 - Options strategies on parabolic moves 19:00 - US Debt Clock composition & Gold Purchases 23:16 - Will Yield Curve Control be eventually implemented? 24:50 - Is this a good week to rebalance? 27:18 - Investing in broad-market ETF's via SEP IRA 31:27 - Preferred Bonds vs Corp Bonds, & 60/40 Allocations 34:15 - Why you need inflation (why we invest) 39:28 - Understanding what you're buying (bonds) 42:17 - Emerging Market equities concentrated in PVR, VALE? 42:45 - Off balance Sheet AI Debt 43:14 - US purchase of Yen - a form of yield curve control? 46:49 - Traditional Pension + SS = ratio for equities? 48:25 - Two Types of Debt Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/HeU8LWC2rfo?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bonds In Your Portfolio: Why Ditching Them Is The Wrong Move" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bonds-in-your-portfolio-why-ditching-them-is-the-wrong-move/ "AI Bear Case: What Skeptics Get Right And Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-bear-case-what-skeptics-get-right-and-wrong/ "The Momentum Crash: Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-momentum-crash-is-it-over/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "New Highs, Now What?" https://youtu.be/K0SaWvIeYkQ ------- Watch our previous show, "The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead" https://youtube.com/live/9KGokK9tGuA ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing #Bonds #MarketOutlook FinancialPlanning #MarketOutlook

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Podcast appearances and mentions of lance roberts

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Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

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Latest news about lance roberts

Latest podcast episodes about lance roberts

9-3-26 Is the Stock Market Expensive or Cheap?

9-2-26 Q&A Wednesday - What Are Markets Waiting For

9-2-26 Q&A Wednesday: What Are Markets Waiting For?

9-2-26 September Weakness Tests Market Support | Before the Bell

9-1-26 What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner

9-1-26 Don't Make a Big Bet Yet | Before the Bell

9-1-26 What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?

8-31-26 Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning

8-31-26 Druckenmiller's Bond Market Warning

8-31-26 September Volatility Test Begins | Before the Bell

More & More Signals Popping Up That Suggest A Pullback Is Near | Lance Roberts

8-27-26 Nvidia Says the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

8-27-26 Nvidia Says the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

8-27-26 NASDAQ Technicals Are Turning Higher | Before the Bell

8-26-26 Q&A Wednesday - The Biggest Risk to Markets Now

8-26-26 NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test | Before the Bell

8-26-26 Q&A Wednesday: The Biggest Risk to Markets Now

8-25-26 Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High

8-25-26 Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?

8-25-26 Market Correction: Patience Pays | Before the Bell

8-24-26 Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields

8-24-26 Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?

8-24-26 Bollinger Bands Are Flashing a Warning | Before the Bell

Risk Of A 10% Market Correction Now Uncomfortably High | Lance Roberts

8-20-26 Is Treasury Bailing Out the Bond Market

8-20-26 Is Treasury Bailing Out the Bond Market?

8-20-26 Treasury Buybacks Spark a Market Bounce | Before the Bell

8-19-26 Q&A Wednesday - Are Rising Rates a Market Warning

8-19-26 Q&A Wednesday: Are Rising Rates a Market Warning?

8-19-26 September Rally Test Ahead Before the Bell

8-18-26 Can You Trust Financial Advice on Social Media

8-18-26 Can You Trust Financial Advice on Social Media?

Why Your Portfolio Doesn't Match the Market | Before the Bell

8-17-26 Record Highs - Should You Chase the Rally

8-17-26 Record Highs: Should You Chase the Rally?

8-17-26 Is the Market's Risk-Reward Getting Worse? | Before the Bell

Recent Market Breakout Running Out Of Steam? | Lance Roberts

8-13-26 Does the Inflation Report Give the Fed More Time?

8-13-26 Retail Investors Are Chasing Again | Before the Bell

8-13-26 Does the Inflation Report Give the Fed More Time?

8-12-26 Q&A Wednesday - Is Inflation Back in Control?

8-12-26 Q&A Wednesday - Is Inflation Back in Control?

8-12-26 Why Bearish Headlines Keep Losing | Before the Bell

8-11-26 What Really Drives Markets

8-11-26 Market Highs Come With a Warning | Before the Bell

8-11-26 What Really Drives Markets?

8-6-26 Hidden AI Debt - Is the Risk Overblown

8-6-26 Time to Rebalance? | Before the Bell

8-6-26 Hidden AI Debt: Is the Risk Overblown?

8-5-26 Q&A Wednesday - Market Questions Answered