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Hosted by lance roberts
Hosted by lance roberts
111 episodes with lance roberts
55 episodes with lance roberts
11 episodes with lance roberts
7 episodes with lance roberts
8 episodes with lance roberts
6 episodes with lance roberts
5 episodes with lance roberts
As we begin the new year, this New Year's Day market outlook takes a balanced, risk-aware look at what 2026 may hold for investors. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the bullish case for markets, including the macro and technical backdrops supporting higher prices, while also addressing the growing risks beneath the surface—particularly stress in credit markets and the potential for lower long-term returns. The discussion explores how elevated valuations, tighter financial conditions, and shifting economic dynamics could impact portfolio outcomes in the year ahead. We also outline practical investment strategies for 2026, including why cash can provide valuable optionality during periods of volatility and uncertainty. Additional topics include a preview of the 2026 Economic Summit, sector opportunities such as energy, expectations for gold and silver, and a critical discussion of which investments may be inappropriate to hold inside a Roth IRA structure. This episode is designed to help investors set realistic expectations, manage risk, and position portfolios thoughtfully for the year ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Market Outlook for 2026 2:12 - The Case for Bullishness 7:15 - The Risk for Lower Returns 9:44 - The Case for Bearishness 13:24 - Stress in Credit markets 15:33 - Investing Strategies for 2026 20:40 - Cash Provides Optionality 23:48 - 2026 Economic Summit Preview 29:17 - Energy Plays for 2026 32:20 - Expectations for Gold and Silver in 2026 39:15 - What Investments Should NOT Be Held in a Roth IRA? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5ZwEVKb4e0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Marketing for Financial Advisors in the AI Age - Greg Joslyn Interview," here: https://youtube.com/live/Rz5VtHnobEk?feature=share -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #2026MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy #MarketRisk #PortfolioManagement #FinancialPlanning
In this wide-ranging and candid conversation, Lance Roberts is joined by longtime friend and veteran television reporter Tom Zizka to discuss how media, markets, and economic reality have fundamentally changed over the past two decades. The discussion begins with the evolution of modern media—from the rise of social platforms and the "small screen" revolution to the growing pressures of monetization, speed, and narrative framing. Lance and Tom explore how storytelling has shifted from context-driven reporting to image-driven headlines, and what that means for public perception, trust, and accountability. From there, the conversation moves into markets and policy. Topics include the economic implications of Trump's re-election, why falling oil prices were driven more by markets than politics, and the disconnect between calls for expanded drilling and the reality of global oil gluts. The episode also examines farm subsidies, the critical role of farming and trucking in the U.S. economy, and why inflation—while unpopular—is often necessary for economic growth. The discussion extends to immigration, contrasting legal versus undocumented impacts on the economy, the power of imagery and narrative in shaping public opinion, and the widening wealth gap that continues to distort economic expectations. Lance and Tom also touch on cultural shifts, including the growing debate over college versus skilled trades, the rise of short-form video, and the increasingly complex checklist required for modern publication and media compliance. Blending humor, real-world reporting experience, and market insight, this episode offers a grounded look at how media narratives influence economic understanding—and why reality often looks very different once the headlines fade. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Tables are Turned 2:22 - Changes in the Media - the necessary evolution 4:30 - Media Monetization and The News 8:29 - The Advent of the Small Screen - Facebook 2010 11:12 - Dead People in Houston Bayous - the Bayou Butcher? 13:40 - Lance is a Cereal Killer 14:46- The Trump Re-election - What Did it Mean? 15:17 - Bringing Down Oil Prices - Markets Did That; Ending Restrictions on Drilling vs the Glut of Oil 19:50 - Texas Beef Production & Cow Tipping 21:46 - Immigration Methodology - Pictures & Narrative on Social Media, 24:13 - Immigration Impact on Economy - Legal vs Undocumented 29:45 - The Big Beautiful Bill or Big and Ugly 31:11 - Farm Aid Package - Farm Subsidies 35:07 - The Criticality of Farming & Trucking to the Economy 36:33 - Economic Reality & The Wealth Gap 41:30 - People Expect Prices to Go Down 42:35 - Why We Want Inflation - Economic Growth 45:27 - The Cycling Story - Criterion Racing - Lucas Bourgoyne 48:22 - Social Media Videos & In-Laws 50:09 - College vs Trades 52:58 - The Ever-growing Checklist for Publication Watch the Video of this interview on our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/live/tsurGgQO88w #MediaAndMarkets #EconomicReality #FinancialMedia #OilPrices #WealthGap
Our Christmas Day Best-Of episode revisits some of the most important investing and financial planning discussions of the year. Lance Roberts, Danny Ratliff, & Jonathan Penn examine whether the traditional 60/40 portfolio still serves its original purpose of reducing volatility, and what the three legs of investing mean in today's market environment; whether the Federal Reserve has shifted away from its inflation mandate, how to interpret 2- and 3-standard-deviation market moves using tools like Bollinger Bands, and which economic data truly matters for investors—and where to find it. We close by addressing common misconceptions around inflation, including the real impact of tariffs and why sustainable economic growth requires some level of inflation, along with a thoughtful discussion on when marriage can be a sound financial decision—and when it may not be. A reflective, evergreen episode focused on perspective, risk management, and better decision-making heading into the new year. 0:00 - INTRO 0:17 - Live Q&A: Is the 60-40 Rule still viable - the goal is reducing volatility (three legs of investing) 8:52 - Has the Fed given up on their inflation mandate? 12:04 - Explain 2x, 3x standard deviations from average (Bollinger Band articles) 15:40 - What data to watch (and where can you find it)? 18:48 - Inflation: true impact of tariffs? True sources of Inflation: No inflation, no economic growth 23:20 - When is marriage a good investment (and when is it not)? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi-a7CySU1g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pause Before the Fed: Time to Trim Risk?," is here: https://youtu.be/watJ1Jqsf-4 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Dealing with Debt & Smart Money Moves" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPM7ef0BKg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingEducation #MarketRisk #FederalReserve #Inflation #FinancialPlanning
The Federal Reserve is entering a pivotal phase, and the decisions it makes now will define the next era of monetary policy. Lance Roberts and The Fed Guy, Joseph Wang, examine the structural forces putting the Fed at a crossroads—from rate cuts and shifting labor-market dynamics to the long-term impact of AI, tariff-driven inflation, and changes in the Fed's balance-sheet strategy. We explore why markets appear bullish on economic growth despite weakening employment data, how tariff inflation may be a one-time impulse, and what a redesigned policy framework could look like as banks, regulators, and political leaders debate the Fed's future role. If you want a grounded assessment of where monetary policy is heading and how structural changes could reshape markets, this episode provides the context investors need. 0:00 - INTRO 1:07 - Fed Rate Cuts & Commentary 5:37 - Markets Are Bullish About Economic Growth vs Employment Data; Tariff Inflation? One-Time Impact 7:59 - Labor Market Commentary 8:56 - Impact of AI? Double-checking the bot; building data centers; 11:25 - How will the Fed respond to AI impact on labor market? 12:47 - The Shift in Fed Policy - Ben Bernanke: Boosting asset prices to improve consumer mood 15:28 - The Fed is at a crossroads in its role - a smaller Fed balance sheet? 18:00 - Fed to de-regulate commercial banks (supplementary leverage ratio) so they can take over Fed's role? 20:16 - Is the Fox in the henhouse? 21:42 - How to unwind Fed balance sheet? 23:27 - Fed to Purchase $40-B in Bonds - not QE? 24:55 - QE vs Reserve Management Purchase 27:13 - Never Going back to Zero Interest Rates? 28:48 - Government Bond Rollover coming - will banks manage? 31:54 - Administrative make up of the future Fed - Kevin Hassett? - How Low will Rates Go; would low rates help with affordability; will the Fed Become more Trump-dominated? 38:34 - What is the risk from lower rates? 41:09 - Changes in the way we operate - the past is not the future. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Joseph Wang, CIO, The Fed Guy Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/uv88L9zT4Ok?feature=share ------- Our Previous show, "Dollar Power, AI, & The New Financial Order," is here: https://youtube.com/live/QYUME1I-SDg?feature=share ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #AIEconomy #JosephWang #TheFedGuy
In this episode, Lance Roberts sits down with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to break down what's really happening with the U.S. dollar, the global monetary system, and why AI is accelerating a geopolitical and economic power shift. If you're looking for big-picture insights on the future of the dollar, geopolitics, AI-driven capital flows, and where long-term investing tailwinds are forming—this is a must-watch. 0:00 - INTRO 0:56 - Dollar Pessimism is Everywhere 3:32 - Why the Dollar Loses Purchasing Power: Inflation 5:08 - How Reserve Currencies Work - Why the Dollar is the Global Reserve Currency 6:30 - Why Oil is Priced in Dollars 9:07 - Reserve Currency Storage - Rule of Law & Liquidity Stability; effects of Euro Conversion on Reserves 11:10 - Ronald Regan clip, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" 13:00 - Why the Dollar needs not be too strong or too weak (Chart - US Dollar Index) 16:00 - The Debt based monetary system 16:42 - The Carry Trade 19:59 - The Dollar Milkshake Theory - 21:00 - What a Falling Dollar would indicate 22:00 - The Impact of Where Money is Being Spent for AI Buildout - the multiplier effect; will this attract more foreign capital into the US? 25:11 - AI is transformational - Separation of East from West is happening; outcome is existential to the US 26:22 - The Office of Strategic Capital - 27:07 - The Race to Win AI - leadership in the global economy 28:53 - Two hang ups - Power generation/transmission grid 29:46 - Looking for the investing tailwinds 31:23 - The Fed's Return to QE 35:08 - Stablecoin vs Bitcoin - Digital Token, linked to a specific asset or commodity; Bitcoin which suffers from volatility 38:14 - The Genius Act - official blessing of Stablecoin; geopolitical implications 39:24 - The potential to become a new Eurodollar market - the importance of sovereignty for a nation 42:58 - Using Money as a weapon 44:46 - Stablecoin Implications for Investors - impact on Treasuries 47:14 - Currency Manipulation - China vs U.S. 50:30 - AI is overpriced - Looking ahead: short term cautious; buy the dip; Energy assets, including nuclear; critical minerals are national security implications 52:08 - Precious Metals outlook: If you own them, don't sell them; 53:40 - Opportunity in Energy Sector; Will VanLowe/Quantum - Energy Demand vs available supply imbalance 54:34 - The LNG supply gap solution 56:25 - How to Find Brent Johnson Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Brent Johnson, CEO, Santiago Capital, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYUME1I-SDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAug2oeXwuQUeSf8Hd6AFR5O9&index=4 ------- Our Previous show, "Bear Markets Are a Good Thing," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdlhQgMthW4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "QE Is Coming: The 2008 Roots Of Fed Dominance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/qe-is-coming-the-2008-roots-of-fed-dominance/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BrentJohnson #USDollar #AIInvesting #GlobalMacro #FinancialMarkets
Markets are heading into year-end with optimism still firmly embedded in prices, but the economic data are telling a more complicated story. Lance Roberts examines the growing gap between the Federal Reserve's soft-landing narrative and what inflation, employment, consumer spending, and earnings expectations are actually signaling. While markets have stabilized following recent volatility, participation remains narrow, sentiment is elevated, and valuations appear priced for a smooth economic outcome in 2026. Lance Roberts breaks down the technical backdrop, including key support and resistance levels, momentum conditions, and volatility trends, along with the limited—but potentially market-moving—economic catalysts ahead. We also discuss why falling inflation driven by weakening demand presents a very different risk profile than supply-driven disinflation, and what that means for investors as liquidity thins into year-end. Finally, we outline risk-managed portfolio considerations if the Fed's assumptions prove optimistic and markets are forced to reprice expectations. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Christmas Week Preview & Valuation Ranges for 2026 3:28 - Markets Are Doing What Markets Do 10:35 - Challenges to the Fed's Soft Landing Narrative 14:06 - Earnings Growth Expectations Illustrated (charts) 20:22 - Risks to Look for in 2026 24:21 - Forecast Comparisons - Then & Now 28:00 - Valuations Are Elevated Everywhere 30:05 - Multiple Expansion Estimates - Three Scenarios 37:28 - Averages Returns Examined 39:06 - The Range of Outcomes - Not a Prediction 42:32 - Markets Have Been Too Easy 45:30 - What Happens If...? 47:43 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4EaxzOPEWc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: 2026 Market Outlook Based On Valuations https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-market-outlook-based-on-valuations/ "Fed's Soft Landing Narrative Meets Economic Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/feds-soft-landing-narrative-meets-economic-data/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Too Soon for Santa?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EFSU2vZeFE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "What Great Financial Planning Looks Like," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhVoQc7adgU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketTrends #FederalReserve #MarketOutlook #EconomicData #InvestingRisk #StockMarket
Markets are doing what they often do this time of year—attempting to stabilize and rally amid choppy trading. While some are already declaring that the Santa Claus Rally is "dead," history suggests patience is warranted. The official Santa Rally window hasn't even begun yet, and statistically, the odds still favor a year-end lift. Lance Roberts breaks down why recent pullbacks below key moving averages triggered algorithmic selling—and why disciplined investors avoid knee-jerk reactions. With markets rebounding above short-term technical levels and consolidating gains from earlier in the year, the bigger takeaway is this: how you managed risk mattered far more than what you owned. As we head toward year-end and look into next year, remember—markets rotate, leadership changes, and yesterday's winners are rarely tomorrow's. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and stay focused on risk management. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EFSU2vZeFE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: 2026 Market Outlook Based On Valuations https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-market-outlook-based-on-valuations/ ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketTrends
Markets are heading into year-end with optimism still firmly embedded in prices, but the economic data are telling a more complicated story. Lance Roberts examines the growing gap between the Federal Reserve's soft-landing narrative and what inflation, employment, consumer spending, and earnings expectations are actually signaling. While markets have stabilized following recent volatility, participation remains narrow, sentiment is elevated, and valuations appear priced for a smooth economic outcome in 2026. Lance Roberts breaks down the technical backdrop, including key support and resistance levels, momentum conditions, and volatility trends, along with the limited—but potentially market-moving—economic catalysts ahead. We also discuss why falling inflation driven by weakening demand presents a very different risk profile than supply-driven disinflation, and what that means for investors as liquidity thins into year-end. Finally, we outline risk-managed portfolio considerations if the Fed's assumptions prove optimistic and markets are forced to reprice expectations. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Christmas Week Preview & Valuation Ranges for 2026 3:28 - Markets Are Doing What Markets Do 10:35 - Challenges to the Fed's Soft Landing Narrative 14:06 - Earnings Growth Expectations Illustrated (charts) 20:22 - Risks to Look for in 2026 24:21 - Forecast Comparisons - Then & Now 28:00 - Valuations Are Elevated Everywhere 30:05 - Multiple Expansion Estimates - Three Scenarios 37:28 - Averages Returns Examined 39:06 - The Range of Outcomes - Not a Prediction 42:32 - Markets Have Been Too Easy 45:30 - What Happens If...? 47:43 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4EaxzOPEWc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: 2026 Market Outlook Based On Valuations https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-market-outlook-based-on-valuations/ "Fed's Soft Landing Narrative Meets Economic Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/feds-soft-landing-narrative-meets-economic-data/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Too Soon for Santa?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EFSU2vZeFE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "What Great Financial Planning Looks Like," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhVoQc7adgU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketTrends #FederalReserve #MarketOutlook #EconomicData #InvestingRisk #StockMarket
Stocks have been this far overvalued only a handful of time within the past 25 years.They could drop 50-60% from today's levels and *still* not enter a true bear market says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.But should a correction of that size happen, he warns, few investors are prepared to survive that.We discuss his outlook for the markets for 2026, whether he thinks a Santa Clause rally will arrive next week, his outlook for inflation & bond yields, and his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#marketcorrection #volatility #bearmarket WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10 Christmas Movies 13:24 - Inflation Expectations (Preview) 14:35 - The Fed Ends QT 20:35 - JP Morgan's Liquidity Crunch 22:53 - Is the Economy Slowing More than They Think? 24:03 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio Model Dead? 26:07 - CAPE-10 Predictions 27:05 - The All-weather Portfolio - Why to Own Bonds 31:31 - Double Digit Environment is Unsustainable 32:33 - How Are Bonds Not Safe?? 34:42 - BitCoin Does Not Belong in Your "Safe" Bucket 37:29 - Safe Money Bucket Composition 42:43 - Why Central Banks Hold Gold 48:15 - Bonds vs Real Estate 51:23 - Diversification Matters 52:01 - A note about REIT's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XBlkxO7lfI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Oversold After Key Support Break," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioRisk #AssetAllocation #BondMarkets #MacroOutlook
Markets broke below both the 20- and 50-day moving averages, triggering a short-term MACD sell signal and raising concerns about near-term weakness. While technical damage should not be ignored, markets are becoming oversold on a relative strength basis, which historically increases the odds of a short-term bounce. Importantly, market bottoms tend to be brief, and prior episodes have shown that support breaks can be quickly reversed. The key issue now is not the intraday violation of moving averages, but where markets ultimately close the week. A sustained close below key support levels would suggest additional downside risk heading into the Christmas-shortened trading week. However, after four consecutive down days, selling pressure is becoming extended, increasing the probability of at least a reflexive rally. Investors feeling uncomfortable with recent volatility may consider using a bounce to rebalance portfolios, reduce excess equity exposure, and take profits where appropriate. This also presents an opportunity for tax-loss harvesting as select stocks are becoming more attractively priced. Importantly, much of the recent weakness has been driven by mega-cap stocks, while equal-weight indexes are beginning to close the performance gap—suggesting improving market breadth. Sector rotation is also underway, with strength emerging in Energy, Healthcare, and Staples. Staying disciplined and attentive to these shifts may help uncover selective opportunities even as headline risk remains elevated. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation
For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10 Christmas Movies 13:24 - Inflation Expectations (Preview) 14:35 - The Fed Ends QT 20:35 - JP Morgan's Liquidity Crunch 22:53 - Is the Economy Slowing More than They Think? 24:03 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio Model Dead? 26:07 - CAPE-10 Predictions 27:05 - The All-weather Portfolio - Why to Own Bonds 31:31 - Double Digit Environment is Unsustainable 32:33 - How Are Bonds Not Safe?? 34:42 - BitCoin Does Not Belong in Your "Safe" Bucket 37:29 - Safe Money Bucket Composition 42:43 - Why Central Banks Hold Gold 48:15 - Bonds vs Real Estate 51:23 - Diversification Matters 52:01 - A note about REIT's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XBlkxO7lfI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Oversold After Key Support Break," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioRisk #AssetAllocation #BondMarkets #MacroOutlook
As the year comes to a close, young investors have a unique opportunity to make small moves that can compound into meaningful long-term results. In this episode, we walk through a practical, end-of-year checklist designed for early-career investors who want to stay organized, tax-aware, and financially disciplined. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn cover how to confirm you're capturing all available employer benefits, including 401(k) or 403(b) matches and vesting schedules. We also discuss how to think about Roth IRAs, HSAs, and other tax-advantaged accounts early in your career—when time is often your greatest asset. On the investment side, we review simple allocation checks, diversification risks, and why staying invested through volatility matters. We also highlight tax-smart considerations like capital gains awareness, loss harvesting, and stock-compensation planning for ESPPs and RSUs. Finally, we address the foundational elements of financial stability: emergency savings, cash management, credit health, and high-interest debt. This checklist is not about speculation—it's about building durable financial habits that support long-term wealth creation. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Wealth by Brackets 3:39 - Will the Santa Rally be Delayed? 9:02 - Open Enrollment & Benefits Tips 16:12 - 401k/IRA Contributions & Employer Matches 24:26 - Investment Choices in 401k's 26:56 - Tracking Down old 401k's 29:38 - Understanding Vesting Schedules 32:29 - Catching Up in 401k 33:58 - Wills, Estate Plans, & Beneficiary Designations 36:26 - Checking for Leakage 39:55 - Annual Credit Report Review 41:18 - Comniog Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Wyudzh3naw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Data, Volatility & Santa Rally Risk," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Facing Your Financial Ghosts," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypp_HKgciow&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #SantaClausRally #Volatility #RiskManagement #StockMarketAnalysis #YoungInvestors #PersonalFinance #YearEndPlanning #InvestingBasics #FinancialWellness
Today's Q&A Wednesday is driven entirely by live YouTube chat questions, covering the market topics investors are most focused on right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff address real-time concerns around market volatility, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation, portfolio risk, asset allocation, and year-end positioning—without hype or speculation. This interactive session is designed to help investors better understand what matters, what doesn't, and how markets typically behave during periods of uncertainty. Rather than making predictions, we focus on context, probabilities, and risk management—answering your questions as they come in live. If you have a market question, join the conversation in the chat. If you're watching the replay, timestamps and chapter markers are included for easy navigation. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Economic Data Disappoints 5:50 - Markets Re-Test 50-DMA 11:26 - Reindeer & Dwarfs 13:54 - Volatility Commentary 21:23 - Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill on Charitable Donations 24:37 - Buybacks vs Dividends 26:42 - Expectations for Gold and Silver in 2026 33:25 - Economic Summit Tease 34:41 - TLT Shorts & Speculative Bets 37:37 - Best Portfolio Allocations for 2026 39:35 - What Investments Should NOT Be Held in a Roth IRA? 41:54 - RSI vs Value, MACD, & Volume Trading? 45:38 - Retiring at 63? 48:07 - Dealing with Future Risk 51:50 - Sectors and Stocks for 2026 56:07 - 403b's vs 457's 57:58 - Energy Plays for 2026 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Consolidate After 50-DMA Test," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4PjkAGK804&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Year-End Checklist for Young Investors," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Wyudzh3naw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #TechnicalAnalysis #YearEndMarkets #RiskManagement #MarketQandA #InvestorQuestions #MarketVolatility #FedPolicy #RiskManagement
Markets briefly retested the 50-day moving average before rebounding toward break-even, remaining locked in a broader consolidation range. While sell signals are currently in place and relative strength continues to normalize, short-term weakness and choppy trading may persist. Importantly, this pullback is creating a more constructive setup as markets work off oversold conditions, potentially laying the groundwork for renewed buying interest into year-end. That said, seasonal strength is not guaranteed. December has not always delivered positive returns, and risk remains elevated as portfolio managers continue year-end positioning and rebalancing across large-cap, small- and mid-cap, and international markets. Investors should remain focused on risk management, discipline, and flexibility as volatility creates both challenges and tactical opportunities. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4PjkAGK804&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #TechnicalAnalysis #YearEndMarkets #RiskManagement
Today's Q&A Wednesday is driven entirely by live YouTube chat questions, covering the market topics investors are most focused on right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff address real-time concerns around market volatility, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation, portfolio risk, asset allocation, and year-end positioning—without hype or speculation. This interactive session is designed to help investors better understand what matters, what doesn't, and how markets typically behave during periods of uncertainty. Rather than making predictions, we focus on context, probabilities, and risk management—answering your questions as they come in live. If you have a market question, join the conversation in the chat. If you're watching the replay, timestamps and chapter markers are included for easy navigation. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Economic Data Disappoints 5:50 - Markets Re-Test 50-DMA 11:26 - Reindeer & Dwarfs 13:54 - Volatility Commentary 21:23 - Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill on Charitable Donations 24:37 - Buybacks vs Dividends 26:42 - Expectations for Gold and Silver in 2026 33:25 - Economic Summit Tease 34:41 - TLT Shorts & Speculative Bets 37:37 - Best Portfolio Allocations for 2026 39:35 - What Investments Should NOT Be Held in a Roth IRA? 41:54 - RSI vs Value, MACD, & Volume Trading? 45:38 - Retiring at 63? 48:07 - Dealing with Future Risk 51:50 - Sectors and Stocks for 2026 56:07 - 403b's vs 457's 57:58 - Energy Plays for 2026 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Consolidate After 50-DMA Test," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4PjkAGK804&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Year-End Checklist for Young Investors," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Wyudzh3naw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #TechnicalAnalysis #YearEndMarkets #RiskManagement #MarketQandA #InvestorQuestions #MarketVolatility #FedPolicy #RiskManagement
Markets finished last week slightly lower but held critical support at the 20- and 50-day moving averages. As we enter the final two weeks of December—historically the strongest stretch of the month—investors are positioning for a potential Santa Claus Rally and looking ahead to 2026. Portfolio window dressing, year-end performance reporting, and managers chasing returns could provide an additional tailwind. Markets remain in a constructive consolidation near all-time highs, and early signs of sector rotation into utilities, real estate, and staples suggest improving market breadth. Futures are pointing higher this morning, indicating a positive open. For now, markets remain fine—stay invested, but continue managing risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5X05sTq-zI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #YearEndRally #MarketBreadth
Despite the markets trading at all-time highs and likely to end the year up near +20%, they are "very fragile" warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Record margin debt, AI buildout concerns, record valuation levels, highly optimistic earnings expectations, and credit market stresses each and all could trigger a market correction in 2026.Lance and I discuss those risks, as well as the recent Fed "not-QE" announcement, non-correlated assets, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #federalreserve #aibubble _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Guest host Victor Adair sits down with market strategist Lance Roberts to discuss why investors may need to brace for lower returns, and the need for defensive positioning and smart risk management for 2026. Claudia Tornquist, CEO of Kodiak Copper, provides a deep dive into one of today’s most explosive commodities. Ozzie on the disastrous native land claim court ruling over private property, a warning the AI investment boom may be entering a hazardous new phase, and much more you won’t want to miss this. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented--an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away 6:53 - Volatility on the Rise 11:25 - Adding Ultra for Mrs. Roberts 14:16 - Surprises from the Fed? 18:15 - Fed Statement Analysis (chart) 20:12 - Betting on Kevin Hassett 22:08 - QE or Not QE? 26:30 - Valuations are a Function of Sentiment 29:48 - When Will Markets Crash? 32:32 - The Break Between Value & Growth 35:32 - ETF Issueance & High Risk Offerings 38:52 - What Happens When Gold and Stocks Rise 41:12 - What is Your Goal for Your Portfolio? 42:52 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT1azosP1yk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility After the Fed," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Live-chat Q&A Show" here: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FOMC #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy
Markets bounced sharply after the Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter-point, pushing major indexes back toward all-time highs. As of Wednesday's close, buy signals remain in place, but relative strength is stretched, and a mild pullback is taking shape this morning—led by weakness in the NASDAQ following Oracle's selloff. With all major indexes still within 2% of record levels, investors should remember that when the Fed cuts near market highs, volatility typically rises over the next one to three months. Historically, this pattern produces short-term corrections but tends to resolve with higher prices over the next 10–12 months. Markets remain in a broader consolidation range, and a normal retracement toward the 50-DMA between now and Christmas would set the stage for a stronger year-end rally. Based on current trends, 2025 looks likely to close with gains near 17%—and we are preparing updated valuation and price-target ranges for 2026 in an upcoming article. In today's pre-market brief, we break down: • Why NASDAQ weakness is no surprise • How Fed policy and "QE/Not-QE" shape volatility expectations • What to expect from a consolidation into year-end • Key levels to watch into the seasonal rally window Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ
The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented--an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away 6:53 - Volatility on the Rise 11:25 - Adding Ultra for Mrs. Roberts 14:16 - Surprises from the Fed? 18:15 - Fed Statement Analysis (chart) 20:12 - Betting on Kevin Hassett 22:08 - QE or Not QE? 26:30 - Valuations are a Function of Sentiment 29:48 - When Will Markets Crash? 32:32 - The Break Between Value & Growth 35:32 - ETF Issueance & High Risk Offerings 38:52 - What Happens When Gold and Stocks Rise 41:12 - What is Your Goal for Your Portfolio? 42:52 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT1azosP1yk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility After the Fed," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Live-chat Q&A Show" here: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FOMC #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff review the growth outlook for the AI sector, the power-cost assumptions built into datacenter models, the economic effects of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and the $125 billion in tariff revenue collected this year—along with what tariffs really contribute to inflation. Additional topics include how to read 2x–3x standard deviations using Bollinger Band concepts, which data streams matter most (and where to find them), the link between inflation and economic growth, and practical insights on silver, ETF buy-and-hold strategies, NUA planning, valuation challenges when stocks trade at 25x earnings, and the realities of the “dollar debasement” narrative. As always, we approach these discussions pragmatically: no magic bullets, and market cycles end when they end. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Fed Day Anticipation 4:28 - More Market Volatility Possible Following Fed Meeting 9:14 - Getting ready for Santa 10:02 - Has the Fed given up on their inflation mandate? 13:31 - What's the impact on Long bonds? 15:35 - What is the outlook for AI sector growth? 18:30 -Do Datacenter owners use models assuming power subsidization? 19:06 - What is the impact on the economy from the One Big Beautiful Bill? 22:45 - How much in tariffs have been collected this year? $125-B 25:23 - Explain 2x, 3x standard deviations from average (Bollinger Band articles) 28:43 - What data to watch (and where can you find it)? 31:15 - Inflation: true impact of tariffs? True sources of Inflation: No inflation, no economic growth 35:37 - Silver: Advisors' Kryptonite? (Don't forget to take profits.) 39:29 - Is buy-and-hold with ETF's a good passive investing policy? 43:56 - Does it worry you that the treasury refi uses all T-bills? 45:18 - Is Dollar Debasement real? No--it's a narrative. 46:09 - Using NUA Tax Strategies 46:55 - Buying stocks at 25x 48-48 - Treasury Yields supply & demand dynamics 49:44 - Buying stocks at multiples and valuations 51:10 - Measuring risk in portfolio (60/40 allocation) 53:33 - Our pragmatism 54:36 - No magic bullet - bubbles pop when they pop (Chart: running trend line) 58:05 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pause Before the Fed: Time to Trim Risk?," is here: https://youtu.be/watJ1Jqsf-4 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Dealing with Debt & Smart Money Moves" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPM7ef0BKg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FedDecision #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #BitcoinUpdate #MarketOutlook #BitcoinUpdate #FedMeeting #YearEndRally #InvestingQandA
It's Fed Day, and today's Live Q&A covers what investors should expect as markets position around the announcement, why volatility may pick up afterward, and how this week's action shapes the potential for a Santa Claus Rally. We also discuss whether the Fed has stepped back from its inflation mandate, what that means for long bonds, and how Treasury supply-and-demand dynamics factor into portfolio risk. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff review the growth outlook for the AI sector, the power-cost assumptions built into datacenter models, the economic effects of the "One Big Beautiful Bill," and the $125 billion in tariff revenue collected this year—along with what tariffs really contribute to inflation. Additional topics include how to read 2x–3x standard deviations using Bollinger Band concepts, which data streams matter most (and where to find them), the link between inflation and economic growth, and practical insights on silver, ETF buy-and-hold strategies, NUA planning, valuation challenges when stocks trade at 25x earnings, and the realities of the "dollar debasement" narrative. As always, we approach these discussions pragmatically: no magic bullets, and market cycles end when they end. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Fed Day Anticipation 4:28 - More Market Volatility Possible Following Fed Meeting 9:14 - Getting ready for Santa 10:02 - Has the Fed given up on their inflation mandate? 13:31 - What's the impact on Long bonds? 15:35 - What is the outlook for AI sector growth? 18:30 -Do Datacenter owners use models assuming power subsidization? 19:06 - What is the impact on the economy from the One Big Beautiful Bill? 22:45 - How much in tariffs have been collected this year? $125-B 25:23 - Explain 2x, 3x standard deviations from average (Bollinger Band articles) 28:43 - What data to watch (and where can you find it)? 31:15 - Inflation: true impact of tariffs? True sources of Inflation: No inflation, no economic growth 35:37 - Silver: Advisors' Kryptonite? (Don't forget to take profits.) 39:29 - Is buy-and-hold with ETF's a good passive investing policy? 43:56 - Does it worry you that the treasury refi uses all T-bills? 45:18 - Is Dollar Debasement real? No--it's a narrative. 46:09 - Using NUA Tax Strategies 46:55 - Buying stocks at 25x 48-48 - Treasury Yields supply & demand dynamics 49:44 - Buying stocks at multiples and valuations 51:10 - Measuring risk in portfolio (60/40 allocation) 53:33 - Our pragmatism 54:36 - No magic bullet - bubbles pop when they pop (Chart: running trend line) 58:05 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v363w8PFNw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pause Before the Fed: Time to Trim Risk?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Dealing with Debt & Smart Money Moves" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPM7ef0BKg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FedDecision #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #BitcoinUpdate #MarketOutlook #BitcoinUpdate #FedMeeting #YearEndRally #InvestingQandA
Markets traded flat on Tuesday, holding near the top of their recent trading range. With today's Fed announcement, the potential for a short-term pullback rises—especially with markets still overbought and stretched above key moving averages. A move back toward the 20-DMA or 50-DMA wouldn't be surprising. The VIX is also signaling a possible uptick in volatility, hinting at a VIX buy signal. For those running aggressively long positions, this may be an ideal moment to reassess and trim risk around the edges. Bitcoin—often a proxy for speculative sentiment—has bounced recently but is now approaching overhead resistance, reinforcing a more cautious stance through the next several sessions. In this pre-market update, Lance breaks down: Why markets may soften despite positive momentum How the VIX is telegraphing volatility What overbought conditions imply short-term Why Bitcoin's rally may be stalling Stay disciplined and keep risk management front and center as the Fed takes the spotlight. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/watJ1Jqsf-4 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FedDecision #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #BitcoinUpdate
Debt can reshape a family, fracture relationships, and derail financial goals — especially when fraud or addiction is involved. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn address the importance of protecting your credit and financial future, and share four “good enough” financial moves to simplify money management without sacrificing results...strategies to cut through the noise and help you stay on track with less time, less stress, and fewer decisions. 0:00 - INTRO Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "12-9-25 Market Sloppiness Ahead of the Fed," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Bullish Case or Bearish Backdrop? The Real Market Setup for 2026" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBXSsrMLmSA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketUpdate #FedWeek #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #DebtManagement #CreditFraud #MoneyMoves #FinancialPlanning #PersonalFinanceTips
Debt can reshape a family, fracture relationships, and derail financial goals — especially when fraud or addiction is involved. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn address the importance of protecting your credit and financial future, and share four "good enough" financial moves to simplify money management without sacrificing results...strategies to cut through the noise and help you stay on track with less time, less stress, and fewer decisions. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Fed Day Preview - Fed Grammar Matters 5:10- Market Weakness is No Surprise 9:11 - The Myriad Versions of Credit Scores 11:15 - Check Your Credit Report Regularly 15:11 - Improving Your Credit Score 17:12 - Freezing Your Credit 18:38 - THe Credit Card Trap 24:21 - Mrs. Roberts' Christmas Decor 26:54 - Reverse Budgeting 30:42 - Savings Rate vs Rates of Return 30:42 - Savings Rate vs Rates of Return 37:30 - Using a Financial Advisor 39:41 - Setting Up for Financial Success 43:31 - Looking Out for Elderly Abuse Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPM7ef0BKg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "12-9-25 Market Sloppiness Ahead of the Fed," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Bullish Case or Bearish Backdrop? The Real Market Setup for 2026" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBXSsrMLmSA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketUpdate #FedWeek #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #DebtManagement #CreditFraud #MoneyMoves #FinancialPlanning #PersonalFinanceTips
Market sloppiness is showing up as mutual fund distributions continue to create choppiness across the major indices. After the rally off the Thanksgiving lows, markets have spent more than a month stuck in a consolidation range, struggling to make progress while remaining elevated above the 200-DMA and overbought on a momentum buy signal. A pullback to retest the 20-DMA wouldn't be surprising. This week's focus is the Federal Reserve meeting, where commentary—especially anything hawkish—could influence trading and potentially spark short-term volatility. Barring an unexpected shift, markets still appear on track to close 2025 with mid-teens returns, setting up bigger questions about what that could mean heading into 2026. Stay tuned for what to watch as Fed Week unfolds. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/jVOsWORmpBU ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketUpdate #FedWeek #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis
Lance Roberts looks at both sides of the Market Cycle—the bullish liquidity-driven momentum and the bearish fundamental weaknesses. With support and resistance levels tightening around the S&P 500, and the Fed meeting, economic data, and major earnings directly ahead, investors must prepare for a market that could swing in either direction in 2026. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Markets Set up for Santa Claus Rally 5:30 - Expect Sloppy Trading This Week 11:22 - Economic Summit, Elf on a Shelf, & Baylor Dating 14:42 - Market Outlook for 2026 16:36 - The Case for Bullishness 21:29: The Bullish Backdrop 24:13 - The Case for Bearishness 27:52 - Stress in Credit markets 28:36 - The Risk for Lower Returns 29:59 - Investing Strategies for 2026 35:06 - Cash Provides Optionality 38:16 - The Cost of Carrying Margin Debt 41:47 - Disposable Personal Income 44:38 - The Google Example & Margin Debt 46:10 - Margin Call call folly Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBXSsrMLmSA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Bitcoin Is Lagging the S&P," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Roth Conversions, Money Rules & Financial Wellness: What Actually Works?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdFmXFB3sW4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BitcoinNews #SP500 #MarketUpdate #CryptoMarkets #PreMarket #MarketOutlook2026 #BullMarket #BearMarket #FederalReserve #StockMarketAnalysis
Lance Roberts looks at both sides of the Market Cycle—the bullish liquidity-driven momentum and the bearish fundamental weaknesses. With support and resistance levels tightening around the S&P 500, and the Fed meeting, economic data, and major earnings directly ahead, investors must prepare for a market that could swing in either direction in 2026. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Markets Set up for Santa Claus Rally 5:30 - Expect Sloppy Trading This Week 11:22 - Economic Summit, Elf on a Shelf, & Baylor Dating 14:42 - Market Outlook for 2026 16:36 - The Case for Bullishness 21:29: The Bullish Backdrop 24:13 - The Case for Bearishness 27:52 - Stress in Credit markets 28:36 - The Risk for Lower Returns 29:59 - Investing Strategies for 2026 35:06 - Cash Provides Optionality 38:16 - The Cost of Carrying Margin Debt 41:47 - Disposable Personal Income 44:38 - The Google Example & Margin Debt 46:10 - Margin Call call folly Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBXSsrMLmSA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Bitcoin Is Lagging the S&P," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Roth Conversions, Money Rules & Financial Wellness: What Actually Works?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdFmXFB3sW4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BitcoinNews #SP500 #MarketUpdate #CryptoMarkets #PreMarket #MarketOutlook2026 #BullMarket #BearMarket #FederalReserve #StockMarketAnalysis
There are less than four weeks left in 2025.Will a Santa Claus rally show up on Wall Street before then?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so.We discuss the odds why, as well as the latest jobs data, rising yields in the Japan bond market, China's real estate woes, the probability of a "lost decade" ahead, as well as Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#jobs #bonds #marketrally _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end? For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair's view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets 4:45 - Markets Prep for Year End Rally 9:33 - 2026 Economic Summit Tease 10:32 - Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman? 13:25 - Is Fed Groupthink Ending? 16:13 - How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets 18:02 - How About a Pre-2000 Fed? 24:08 - "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 - It's All About Liquidity 27:01 - Data Center Power Ramp-up 29:56 - E-mail: Tariff Decision Impact on Markets 33:11 - What is the Impact of Rate Changes on the US Dollar? 36:17 - Inflation Remains 37:04 - The Shifting Narratives - AI & Debt 39:08 - Narratives are Rationalizations for What's Happening 43:28 - Market Breadth is not Great Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvNL-iyGgj0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fed-regime-change-groupthink-may-be-ending/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility May Precede Santa Claus Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #YearEndRally #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #MarketLiquidity
Markets rallied on Wednesday before selling off into the close, but technically this is all normal behavior. After a mild 5% pullback in early November, stocks are simply consolidating gains from the April lows. Now, markets are pushing back toward resistance at the previous highs—an area that may produce some short-term volatility. If markets can break above November's highs, it opens the door for a traditional Santa Claus Rally into year-end. Even a pullback to the 50-DMA heading into Christmas would be a healthy setup. With markets on a buy signal from relatively low levels, the odds still lean toward a strong finish to 2025. Volatility may return over the next couple of weeks, and headlines will inevitably warn that "Santa isn't coming this year." But historically, two back-to-back negative Decembers are extremely rare. The technical backdrop continues to support a year-end push higher. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #YearEndRally #TechnicalAnalysis
Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end? For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair's view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets 4:45 - Markets Prep for Year End Rally 9:33 - 2026 Economic Summit Tease 10:32 - Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman? 13:25 - Is Fed Groupthink Ending? 16:13 - How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets 18:02 - How About a Pre-2000 Fed? 24:08 - "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 - It's All About Liquidity 27:01 - Data Center Power Ramp-up 29:56 - E-mail: Tariff Decision Impact on Markets 33:11 - What is the Impact of Rate Changes on the US Dollar? 36:17 - Inflation Remains 37:04 - The Shifting Narratives - AI & Debt 39:08 - Narratives are Rationalizations for What's Happening 43:28 - Market Breadth is not Great Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvNL-iyGgj0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fed-regime-change-groupthink-may-be-ending/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility May Precede Santa Claus Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #YearEndRally #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #MarketLiquidity
What exactly are Trump Accounts, and who qualifies under the new expansion backed by Michael and Susan Dell's $6.25 billion donation? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff break down how the Dell Deal works, which families benefit, and why this initiative could reshape financial planning for millions of children. If you're a parent, grandparent, or financial planner, this is essential information about how these accounts may impact a child's financial future. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Sloppy Trading Ahead 5:15 - Performance Dichotomy in AI Stocks 11:00 - Trump Accounts - Where's the Value? 12:19 - How it Works - The Devil is in the Details 16:12 - What is the Purpose - Use of the Funds? 17:39 - Where is the Financial Education? 19:17 - What About the Next Generation? 21:06 - The Reverse Mortgage parallel 23:06 - The Simple Solution 25:12 - The Government's Motives 28:35 - Trump Accounts vs 529 Plans 29:38 - Requirement for Financial Education 31:51 - How 401k Plans Have (not) Worked Out 33:22 - The Wealth Gap Problem 34:23 - Encouraging the Trades 37:21 - Lance's Rant - Early School Start Times
What exactly are Trump Accounts, and who qualifies under the new expansion backed by Michael and Susan Dell's $6.25 billion donation? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff break down how the Dell Deal works, which families benefit, and why this initiative could reshape financial planning for millions of children. If you're a parent, grandparent, or financial planner, this is essential information about how these accounts may impact a child's financial future. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Sloppy Trading Ahead 5:15 - Performance Dichotomy in AI Stocks 11:00 - Trump Accounts - Where's the Value? 12:19 - How it Works - The Devil is in the Details 16:12 - What is the Purpose - Use of the Funds? 17:39 - Where is the Financial Education? 19:17 - What About the Next Generation? 21:06 - The Reverse Mortgage parallel 23:06 - The Simple Solution 25:12 - The Government's Motives 28:35 - Trump Accounts vs 529 Plans 29:38 - Requirement for Financial Education 31:51 - How 401k Plans Have (not) Worked Out 33:22 - The Wealth Gap Problem 34:23 - Encouraging the Trades 37:21 - Lance's Rant - Early School Start Times
AI stocks inside the Mag-7 are no longer moving in unison. We're now seeing a clear split between the names that are extremely overbought and those entering oversold, opportunity-driven territory. Apple ($AAPL) ripped to all-time highs and is now heavily deviated from its long-term means — historically a tough level to sustain. Google ($GOOGL) has been the recent "darling," but it remains extremely overbought and is beginning an early correction phase. We rebalanced our Google position back to target last week based on that setup. On the other side of the spectrum, Nvidia ($NVDA) has pulled back and is still above its 200-DMA, though the gap hasn't fully closed. Palantir ($PLTR) has triggered a buy signal, showing rotation inside the AI space. The message? When one part of the AI sector becomes stretched, opportunities often emerge somewhere else. Managing position sizes and rebalancing becomes critical into year-end. This pre-market update breaks down: • Which AI stocks are overbought • Which are resetting • Where technical setups are shifting • Why dispersion in the Mag-7 matters right now Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8eJNdf9YTI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #AIStocks #Mag7 #TechStocks #PreMarketUpdate #StockMarketNews
Welcome to our LIVE Q&A session! Lance Roberts is taking your questions directly from the YouTube live chat—covering markets, investing, retirement planning, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve, portfolio strategy, risk management, and your personal finance questions. No scripts, no agenda—just real-time answers based on data, history, and risk-focused investing principles. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Not Every December is Positive 5:03 - Momentum is Back 11:01 - Economic Summit tease 12:01 - Live Q&A: Is the 60-40 Rule still viable 19:34 - Debt to GDP Ratio - threat to US Dollar; purchasing power of the US Dollar 22:24 - The purchasing Power of the US Dollar vs Inflation (Chart Crime) 26:53 - Dollar performance since release of Chat GPT 28:05 - Biggest Mistake/Triumph 30:08 - Is the BitCoin 4-year Cycle still Alive? 33:36 - What's the best investment for beginning investor? 35:58 - What Roles should REIT's play over the next 5-years? 37:14 - Is there a trade for money rotation among the Mag-7 39:17 - Dated Maturity Bond ETF's? 40:47 - Yield Curve steepening, inversion or un-inversion 42:16 - What happens to AI if Cap-Ex doesn't show up? 42:33 - In what bucket does Gold belong? 43:27 - Small Cap outlook for 2026 45:18 - When will long-term bonds recover? 46:13 - Bull/Bear case for private real estate & Private equity/credit 50:09 - When is marriage a good investment ? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Base Up as Bitcoin Builds a Bottom," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOg7kPGVEpM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Is Private Equity A Wolf In Sheep's Clothing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-private-equity-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Bear Markets Are a Good Thing," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdlhQgMthW4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- #StockMarketNews #BitcoinAnalysis #PreMarketUpdate #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #InvestingQandA #StockMarketLive #FinancialPlanning #MarketOutlook #RetirementPlanning
Welcome to our LIVE Q&A session! Lance Roberts is taking your questions directly from the YouTube live chat—covering markets, investing, retirement planning, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve, portfolio strategy, risk management, and your personal finance questions. No scripts, no agenda—just real-time answers based on data, history, and risk-focused investing principles. We'll break down what's moving the markets, how to think about pullbacks, what the Fed may do next, how valuations affect future returns, and how to build financial plans that survive full market cycles. Whether you're a new investor or a seasoned pro, this LIVE Q&A is your chance to get expert insight—right now. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Not Every December is Positive; Retail Sales, Black Friday, & Target snafu 5:03 - Momentum is Back 11:01 - Economic Summit tease 12:01 - Live Q&A: Is the 60-40 Rule still viable - the goal is reducing volatility (three legs of investing) 19:34 - Debt to GDP Ratio - threat to US Dollar; purchasing power of the US Dollar 22:24 - The purchasing Power of the US Dollar vs Inflation (Chart Crime) 26:53 - Dollar performance since release of Chat GPT 28:05 - Biggest Mistake/Triumph - luck in real estate; lost money in Oil & Gas 30:08 - Is the BitCoin 4-year Cycle still Alive? 33:36 - What's the best investment for beginning investor? 35:58 - What Roles should REIT's play over the next 5-years? 37:14 - Is there a trade for money rotation among the Mag-7 as investors try to pick winners? 39:17 - Dated Maturity Bond ETF's? 40:47 - Yield Curve steepening, inversion or un-inversion 42:16 - What happens to AI if Cap-Ex doesn't show up? (It already is) 42:33 - In what bucket does Gold belong? (risk) 43:27 - Small Cap outlook for 2026 45:18 - When will long-term bonds recover? (They are) 46:13 - Bull/Bear case for private real estate & Private equity/credit 50:09 - When is marriage a good investment (and when is it not)?
Markets kicked off the first trading week of December with a weak open but rallied off the lows. Despite some early sloppiness, the major indices remain well-above their 100-day moving average, and the MACD Buy signal remains intact. Momentum is rebuilding, and a basing pattern appears to be forming across the board, including the NASDAQ. The bigger headline today is Bitcoin. After a sharp pullback and several weeks of ETF outflows, Bitcoin is now oversold and flashing renewed buy-signal conditions. ETF inflows have returned, options activity is picking up on the long side, and the price action suggests a potential base forming—though confirmation will take time. A rally back toward the 100-DMA would still offer meaningful upside without implying new highs. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar continues to base following its recent rally, which has helped fuel short-term strength in Gold. Risk-on sentiment is beginning to re-emerge across asset classes as investors rotate back into markets heading into year-end. This pre-market update breaks down the technical backdrop, Bitcoin's improving structure, and what the risk-on rotation means for traders as we move through December. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOg7kPGVEpM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketNews #BitcoinAnalysis #PreMarketUpdate #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy
Most investors fear bear markets—but history shows they play a critical role in building future returns. In this episode, Lance Roberts explains why market declines are not only normal, but necessary for long-term financial success. We break down how bear markets reset valuations, reduce speculation, improve forward returns, and provide disciplined investors with better long-term outcomes. Instead of focusing on predictions, we focus on the importance of managing risk, controlling emotions, and understanding how full market cycles work. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Manage Portfolios for Markets, not Narratives 3:33 - Should You Wait for Correction to Invest? 9:12 - 2026 Economic Summit 10:15 - Markets' Statistics for December 15:14 - Record Levels of Leverage & ETF's 16:54 - Volatility is Different from Bear Market 18:49 - Corrections & Bear Markets are a Good Thing 20:43 - Forest Firers & Recessions are a Good Thing 22:39 - The Fed's 3rd Mandate 25:45 - The Importance of Understanding Full Market Cycles 26:59 - Valuations Always Revert to the Mean 29:50 - Delaying Corrections, Recession Results in Worse Pain Later 32:46 - A 5% Correction is the Price of Admission 34:03 - Get Rid of Narratives 35:10 - The Difference Between Suffering and Surviving 37:16 - Resist Chasing markets 38:10 - Buying & Selling Drives Prices 39:36 - Remain Emotionally Balanced 41:40 - Importance of Monitoring Macro, Technical Signals 42:11 - Importance of an Investment Policy Statement 44:12 - Coming Attractions
Should you wait for a 5% correction before putting money to work? In today's pre-market update, Lance Roberts explains why waiting for the "perfect pullback" is one of the most costly mistakes investors make. A 5% correction is normal volatility—it happens once or twice a year. Even 10% corrections occur regularly. This year alone, markets already saw a near-20% pullback in April and a 5% dip in early November. If you're always waiting for the next pullback, your investment window becomes too narrow—and you risk missing the bulk of the market's gains. Lance walks through real-time chart examples to show why staying invested, keeping some cash ready, and adding on dips is a far better strategy than going all defensive. Markets trend higher over time due to inflation and economic growth, and current indicators—credit spreads, volatility, and market internals—show no signs of a major 30–50% draw down on the horizon. As Peter Lynch famously said: "More money is lost preparing for bear markets than in the bear markets themselves." If you're waiting for the next 5% correction, you're likely missing more upside than you're protecting on the downside. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ1WScUat1g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketUpdate #MarketCorrection #InvestingStrategy #MarketPullback #FinancialAdvice
Most investors fear bear markets—but history shows they play a critical role in building future returns. In this episode, Lance Roberts explains why market declines are not only normal, but necessary for long-term financial success. We break down how bear markets reset valuations, reduce speculation, improve forward returns, and provide disciplined investors with better long-term outcomes. Instead of focusing on predictions, we focus on the importance of managing risk, controlling emotions, and understanding how full market cycles work. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Manage Portfolios for Markets, not Narratives 3:33 - Should You Wait for Correction to Invest? 9:12 - 2026 Economic Summit 10:15 - Markets' Statistics for December 15:14 - Record Levels of Leverage & ETF's 16:54 - Volatility is Different from Bear Market 18:49 - Corrections & Bear Markets are a Good Thing 20:43 - Forest Firers & Recessions are a Good Thing 22:39 - The Fed's 3rd Mandate 25:45 - The Importance of Understanding Full Market Cycles 26:59 - Valuations Always Revert to the Mean 29:50 - Delaying Corrections, Recession Results in Worse Pain Later 32:46 - A 5% Correction is the Price of Admission 34:03 - Get Rid of Narratives 35:10 - The Difference Between Suffering and Surviving 37:16 - Resist Chasing markets 38:10 - Buying & Selling Drives Prices 39:36 - Remain Emotionally Balanced 41:40 - Importance of Monitoring Macro, Technical Signals 42:11 - Importance of an Investment Policy Statement 44:12 - Coming Attractions
The market is over-extended, over-bought and over-leveraged warns portfolio manage Lance Roberts.That combination of conditions often results in more volatility and lower returns in the coming year, so he's looking at 2026 with a degree of caution.In this special Thanksgiving week Market Recap, we discuss his latest portfolio changes, the potential changing of the guard occurring in the AI sector, the rotation of capital into other sectors like biotech and pharma, and the breakout in silver.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #volatility #silverprice _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Full market cycles matter more today than at any point in the last 15 years. Lance Roberts breaks down why valuations, history, and market structure all point to a simple truth: Every bull market is only half the story. The other half is the bear. Lance's approach isn't bullish or bearish. It's risk-focused. Your job as an investor isn't to predict the next crash—it's to avoid catastrophic losses that erase years of gains during the completion of a full market cycle. Lance and Danny Ratliff ponder Tariff Rebates and 50-year mortgages, and Lance and Michael Lebowitz pontificate on what Michael would do if he ran the Fed. Happy Thanksgiving, y'all! 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Full market Cycles Encompass Bulls & Bears 4:54 - A History of Markets' Performance 6:33 - Market Cycles Have Rhythm - The Wycoff Cycles 8:39 - There is No Evidence of Imminent Crash 10:14 - Full market Cycle Analyses 11:50 - Navigating Markets Now 14:25 - Betting Against Buffett 17:33 - Market Dynamics Can Drive Bull Markets for a While 20:12 - Tariff Rebates & 50-Year Mortgages 37:42 - What Would Michael Do (if he was Fed Chairman)
Peter Atwater, one of the leading voices on confidence-driven behavior in markets and society, joins Lance Roberts to share how certainty, control, and herd mentality shape every major trend investors face today. Lance and Peter discuss The Confidence Map, why people behave differently when they're in the "comfort zone" versus the "stress center," and how these shifts explain the rise of speculative investing, the bifurcated K-shaped economy, and the growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. Atwater explores how consumer confidence is driving AI enthusiasm, why the workplace has split between white-collar and blue-collar realities since Covid, and what it will take to move the U.S. back to a non-K-shaped economy. We also dive into Maslow's hierarchy, the collapse of social trust, and what happens when possibility starts to feel like threat. For investors, Atwater lays out what assets are "ice cold or lukewarm," why scrutiny and confidence move in opposite directions, and what to own when today's hot spots finally cool off. We also examine ETFs, gamified trading, the tragedy of benchmarking, and how declining confidence reshapes moral behavior in the markets. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Who is Peter Atwater? 1:10 - Understanding the Behavior of the Herd 2:32 - More Certainty & Control 3:48 - The Confidence Map - The Box Chart - Comfort Zone vs Stress Center 7:03 - Consumer Confidence Metrics & the AI Space 9:24 - The Bifurcated Economy & The K-Shape; White Collar vs Blue Collar Workers During Covid 12:12 - Getting back to a non-K Economy - Looking at the cumulative impact on the economy Maslow's Hierarchy of Need - we need to start at the bottom, make those at the top more aware of what's happening around them 16:48 - What policy should be implemented to accomplish this? How to create income caps on provider side? The K-shaped economy creates slaves to two masters. 19:40 - The Mandami Effect & the risk to our system - the Bottom is really purple, not red or blue 22:35 - The Problem with the Federal Reserve Re-thinking Trickle-down Economics 24:05 - What Happens when Social Trust Collapses - Concern About AI - the furthest thing away from Main Street; when possibility begins to look like threat. 27:24 - The Economy is like a top-heavy Jenga tower, with a circle of flows instead of columns of support Reconsideration of multi-colored pie charts as measures of mood; 31:11 - What should investors own today that are ice-cold or lukewarm; Plan for what you'd like to have happen, but prepare for what you cannot imagine. Where will the money go when the hot spots cool? Scrutiny & Confidence are inversely related What do you own that's tangible? (How to test for confidence) The tragedy of Benchmarking 34:17 - Looking at ETF creation - how to look at sentiment The creation of a gambling environment in investing - the gamification of the markets 37:00 - As confidence falls, the moral compass changes The more you trade, the less money you make. 39:19 - The industry has moved to preying on investors instead of helping them 40:18 - Plan for what you can imagine, be prepared for what you cannot Panic is a reason to be optimistic 41:38 - How Certainty and Control apply at the individual level - Closing thoughts #PeterAtwater #BehavioralFinance #KShapedEconomy #InvestorPsychology #AIandMarkets
Is Solana the next evolution of Bitcoin's corporate playbook? Lance Roberts and DeFi Development Corp. CFA, Parket White, explore how digital assets like Solana, stablecoins, and tokenized treasuries are reshaping balance sheet strategy for companies and investors alike. 0:19 - INTRO 2:11 - Digital Asset Strategy & Solana - the upside potential 3:36 - The MicroStrategy Idea - holding Bitcoin (instead of Gold) 6:31 - Treasury Vehicle Advantages - access Taxation of Cryptocurrency 9:11 - Disadvantages & Risks of Cryptocurrency - liquidity issues & Michael Saylor's view: Shifting to preferred stocks 12:56 - The Problem for Bitcoin - betting on debasement & limited supply vs fractionalization 15:14 - Fiat Currency, Inflation, & Distribution 16:02 - Proximity to the Money Spiggot 18:10 - Stablecoin, Coinbase, Solana, & Treasury Business - Solana actually generates yield; proof of work vs mining 19:05 - THe Meaning & Mechanism of Staking: Inflation rewards & transaction fees; staking & un-staking 22:48 - How payouts are made 24:54 - Solana Crypto network: usability, growth, tokenized assets, and upside potential - Legacy payment systems will be moving to the chain 28:02 - Key metric is Solana-per-share 30:21 - Stripe & other adopters of blockchain assets - what about the need for major banks? 31:25 - The whole point of cybercurrency is to get around major money center banks - What's the risk in this gameplan? 34:33 - The Conspiracy Theory: Major banks' influence on SEC to create regulatory legislation against cybercurrencies 35:34 - The Politics behind Crypto 37:17 - Tether - Largest cyrpto holder, 5th largest holder of treasuries 38:18 - The Creative Destruction of Capitalism 39:50 - Three Things About Digital Asset Treasuries - know what you own, management team, track record of execution; treasury #DFDV
The stock market experienced a massive reversal after Nvidia announced another blowout earnings report.Nvidia, the S&P and the Nasdaq all shot higher at first...but then gravity took over.On Thursday, Nvidia opened up nearly +6% but then fell to close the day down more than -3%. The major indices closed in the red, as well.Wall Street had pinned its hopes on Nvidia jump-starting the market back into rally mode. That clearly didn't happen.Does this mark a turning point?Where guidance, no matter how fantastic, can muster the buying frenzy that we've seen for years now in AI stocks?Or, is this just a temporary pullback?Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest jobs data, whether the Fed is likely to cut interest rates next month, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#nvidia #aibubble #ratecut _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the “floor and ceiling” of overnight rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds Decline 4:06 - Markets Under Pressure; Setting Up for Rally 10:29 - Markets' Post-Nvidia Relief Valve 15:53 - Oracle, CoreWeave, and CDS's Explained 18:24 - Is There Enough Credit to Fund AI Buildouts? 20:30 - Financial Markets are Like Consumers - they'll find the money 22:16 - Begging for ETF's - Be careful what you ask for 25:20 - Centralized Financial Markets are Swallowing BitCoin 28:24 - How the Fed Controls Liquidity 30:11 - Why is There Stress in the Liquidity Markets? 37:18 - The Linkage Between Liquidty & Function of Economy 39:04 - The Fed is Closer to QE Than Anyone Thinks 39:54 - Today's YouTube Poll 41:14 - What Will Markets Do Today?
Choosing between a company pension and a lump-sum payout is one of the biggest financial decisions many pre-retirees will ever face—especially for workers in industries facing layoffs or restructuring, like the major oil companies in Houston right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the key factors to consider when comparing a lifetime pension annuity versus taking a lump-sum distribution you can invest or convert into a private annuity. Using a real-world scenario from a viewer—age 64, a $700,000 lump-sum offer, and a sizable 401(k)—we explore the risks, trade-offs, and questions every retiree should ask before making the call. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Why Nvidia Matters 2:53 - Yes, Virginia, Draw Downs Happen 9:50 - 2026 Economic Summit Preview 10:39 - It's Just a 3% Pullback 13:01 - The Risk Range Report explainer 16:56 - E-Mail Query: Lump Sum or Pension? 19:45 - Pensions are Going the Way of the Dinosaurs 21:29 - Do Not Have a Lump Sum Check Written to You 22:55 - Pensions have no COLA 25:01 - Plan for Higher Taxes in the Future 26:49 - The YouTube Poll 29:07 - Once You're Done, You're Done 33:58 - Lump Sums & Annuities: Be Careful! 38:30 - Understand Your Options
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