Podcast appearances and mentions of lance roberts

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2025 46:33

Renting vs Buying a Home – Which Makes More Sense in 2025? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn, Two Dads on Money, ponder whether, with rising mortgage rates and stubbornly high rents, is it better to rent or buy right now? * What are the true costs of homeownership vs renting? * What are the hidden fees most people overlook? * What are the financial pros and cons of both options? Home ownership is often styled as the "American Dream," thanks to marketing by the National Association of Realtors (what's their vested interest??) For the unprepared, home ownership can become a nightmare. Avoid the anchoring effect in determining whether your house purchase was a gain or a loss (expenses of ownership). Housing is not unaffordable; your expectations may be, however. Before you sign that lease or lock in a mortgage, listen in!

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7-22-25 Bonds Are Trapped in a Trading Range | Before the Bell

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2025 4:10

Bonds have been trapped in a trading range for some time, with Yields stuck at around 4.3-4.4%. This is a function of economic growth and inflation. If you want to know where interest rates should trade (in terms of the Ten-year Treasury), it's GDP + Inflation: There is about an 84% correlation going all the way back to 1970. Technically speaking, there's a giant wedge being built into Yields, and they're going to break out to one side or the other. If to the upside, rates will move up to about 4.8%, maybe 4.9%; some kind of inflationary pressure is going to be needed to raise that rate above GDP to add to that total return. However, if the economy slows, we could see Yields break down below the wedge, putting rates closer to 4%, maybe 3.5%. The rest of the markets are doing fine for now. Another wedge pattern is also developing, and a break out to the downside is going to lead to that correction we've been expecting. Interestingly, the NASDAQ has traded above its 20-DMA for over 60-days, the longest such stretch since 1999. Money flows are extended; that typically marks market peaks. Retail trading flows appear to be reaching a level of exhaustion. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://youtu.be/TYCtn9zlFKU ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-speculation-is-back-with-a-vengeance/ "Company Buybacks Are Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/company-buybacks-are-surging/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #Bonds #TenYearTreasury #GDP #Inflation #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-21-25 Big Questions for Big Tech

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2025 46:35

Can the AI boom sustain current valuations, or is a reckoning coming? Lance Roberts examines how AI and Big Tech investing trends are shaping portfolios, whether rising interest rates will derail Tech stock market outlook, and the growing risks of regulation impact on Big Tech from Washington to Brussels. Markets are still flirting with all-time highs. Lance shares the latest Roberts Family Saga, and his Coldplay strategy. Is investor exuberance getting out of hand? Options expiring within 24-hours are at an all-time high: This is not hedging, this is pure betting. Lance discusses anticipated spending for AI, and identifies associated debt as productive (think, Hoover Dam) vs non-productive (entitlements), which is dis-inflationary. Buuy backs are a poor (non-productive) use of capital. * NOTE: The Real Investment Show will be 100% digital starting Monday, August 4, 2025. Please be sure you're SUBSCRIBED here to catch each episode! SEG-1: Mega-cap Earnings Preview SEG-2a: Another Roberts Family Saga & Coldplay SEG-2b: Market Exuberance is Getting Out of Hand SEG-3a: Paramount & Colbert Kill The Late Show SEG-3b: No Concerns for Market Correction...yet SEG-4: Productive Debt vs Stock Buy Backs Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnE_SxbFc0c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Magnificent Seven Are Mediocre" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-magnificent-seven-are-mediocre/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prepare Now for Correction," is here: https://youtu.be/VDnRZFc0Hpw ------- Our previous show is here: "Money Scripts & Credit Scores," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaEHi-fSbuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-speculation-is-back-with-a-vengeance/ "Company Buybacks Are Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/company-buybacks-are-surging/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #GravitationalPull #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #BigTech #TechStocks #ArtificialIntelligence #FAANG #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-21-25 Moving Averages' Gravitational Pull | Before the Bell

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2025 4:56

Markets are overbought and very extended above moving averages. This is neither out of the ordinary or a crisis situation. Markets are still flirting with all-time highs, but the deviations are important to pay attention to: Moving averages are like gravity, pulling indexes back towards the center. There is still support for stocks, thanks to earnings activity, but once the reporting is done, the focus will return to economic data, and that's when stock will be most susceptible to the gravitational pull. Economic data is okay, but not great, and a pullback to the 200-DMA (worth about 6%) would be no surprise. Investors should expect a 3-5% correction around August or September. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmJdcv12lGA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-speculation-is-back-with-a-vengeance/ "Company Buybacks Are Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/company-buybacks-are-surging/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #GravitationalPull #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-21-25 Big Questions for Big Tech

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2025 46:36

Can the AI boom sustain current valuations, or is a reckoning coming? Lance Roberts examines how AI and Big Tech investing trends are shaping portfolios, whether rising interest rates will derail Tech stock market outlook, and the growing risks of regulation impact on Big Tech from Washington to Brussels. Markets are still flirting with all-time highs. Lance shares the latest Roberts Family Saga, and his Coldplay strategy. Is investor exuberance getting out of hand? Options expiring within 24-hours are at an all-time high: This is not hedging, this is pure betting. Lance discusses anticipated spending for AI, and identifies associated debt as productive (think, Hoover Dam) vs non-productive (entitlements), which is dis-inflationary. Buuy backs are a poor (non-productive) use of capital. * NOTE: The Real Investment Show will be 100% digital starting Monday, August 4, 2025. Please be sure you're SUBSCRIBED here to catch each episode! SEG-1: Mega-cap Earnings Preview SEG-2a: Another Roberts Family Saga & Coldplay SEG-2b: Market Exuberance is Getting Out of Hand SEG-3a: Paramount & Colbert Kill The Late Show SEG-3b: No Concerns for Market Correction...yet SEG-4: Productive Debt vs Stock Buy Backs Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnE_SxbFc0c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Magnificent Seven Are Mediocre" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-magnificent-seven-are-mediocre/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prepare Now for Correction," is here: https://youtu.be/VDnRZFc0Hpw ------- Our previous show is here: "Money Scripts & Credit Scores," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaEHi-fSbuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-speculation-is-back-with-a-vengeance/ "Company Buybacks Are Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/company-buybacks-are-surging/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #GravitationalPull #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #BigTech #TechStocks #ArtificialIntelligence #FAANG #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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Plenty Of Warning Signs A 5-7% Correction May Happen Soon | Lance Roberts

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2025 118:47

Stocks have risen so far so fast, and remain so overbought in the short term, that the risk of a correction in the near term is uncomfortably high.So warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.He could easily see a pullback of 5-7% occur over the coming weeks.We discuss the odds of that, as well as bond yields, whether President Trump will actually fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the accelerating AI threat to jobs, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #bondyields #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

7-18-25 Money Scripts & Credit Scores

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2025 46:16

Richard Rosso & Matt Doyle host Rich's last live Radio-episode* and reveal the reason for Matt's recent absence from the show. Airport Security parameters; strong start to Earnings Season; references to '80's TV sit-coms; market futures, Lance's charts, the ultimate Death Cross; Richard previews Saturday's (7/19) Candid Coffee, and the genesis of the partnership with Lance Roberts; understanding Money Scripts; Netflix & streaming services; Gen-Z and Social Media. Rich and Matt discuss the possibilities of Mrs. Roberts' bakery/coffee shop; Retail Sales report analysis: People are still spending. The Paradox of Thrift, Fed meetings and a brief history of the Federal Reserve Banking System. Rich reviews American Express' report, debt to income ratios and Money Scripts (Brad Klontz); how childhood location bears on credit scores in later life. * NOTE: The Real Investment Show will be 100% digital starting Monday, August 4. Please be sure you're SUBSCRIBED here to catch each episode! SEG-1: Matt's Back (and leg) & some market commentary SEG-2a: Candid Coffee Preview SEG-2b: Money Scripts & Financial Success SEG-3a: Mrs. Roberts' Coffee Shop & Retail Spending SEG-3b: Retail Sales Summary SEG-4: AmEx reports, Money Scripts, & Managing Money Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaEHi-fSbuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Magnificent Seven Are Mediocre" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-magnificent-seven-are-mediocre/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prepare Now for Correction," is here: https://youtu.be/VDnRZFc0Hpw ------- Our previous show is here: "The Magnificent 7 Are Mediocre," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFXBBqri1lo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MoneyScripts #CreditScoreTips #FinancialMindset #CreditHealth #MoneyBehavior #EarningsSeason #RetailSales #Inflation #ParadoxOfThrift #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-18-25 Money Scripts & Credit Scores

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2025 46:17

Richard Rosso & Matt Doyle host Rich's last live Radio-episode* and reveal the reason for Matt's recent absence from the show. Airport Security parameters; strong start to Earnings Season; references to '80's TV sit-coms; market futures, Lance's charts, the ultimate Death Cross; Richard previews Saturday's (7/19) Candid Coffee, and the genesis of the partnership with Lance Roberts; understanding Money Scripts; Netflix & streaming services; Gen-Z and Social Media. Rich and Matt discuss the possibilities of Mrs. Roberts' bakery/coffee shop; Retail Sales report analysis: People are still spending. The Paradox of Thrift, Fed meetings and a brief history of the Federal Reserve Banking System. Rich reviews American Express' report, debt to income ratios and Money Scripts (Brad Klontz); how childhood location bears on credit scores in later life. * NOTE: The Real Investment Show will be 100% digital starting Monday, August 4. Please be sure you're SUBSCRIBED here to catch each episode! SEG-1: Matt's Back (and leg) & some market commentary SEG-2a: Candid Coffee Preview SEG-2b: Money Scripts & Financial Success SEG-3a: Mrs. Roberts' Coffee Shop & Retail Spending SEG-3b: Retail Sales Summary SEG-4: AmEx reports, Money Scripts, & Managing Money Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaEHi-fSbuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Magnificent Seven Are Mediocre" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-magnificent-seven-are-mediocre/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prepare Now for Correction," is here: https://youtu.be/VDnRZFc0Hpw ------- Our previous show is here: "The Magnificent 7 Are Mediocre," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFXBBqri1lo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MoneyScripts #CreditScoreTips #FinancialMindset #CreditHealth #MoneyBehavior #EarningsSeason #RetailSales #Inflation #ParadoxOfThrift #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-17-25 The Magnificent 7 Are Mediocre

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2025 46:14

Are the Magnificent Seven losing their magic? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz get the real story behind Magnificent Seven stocks performance and what it means for your investment strategy. Lance reviews this week's PPI report (flat) showing little to no effects from tariffs. Yet. The make up of the US economy (80% services) is such that corporations will primarily pay tariffs, and likely not pass along much of the additional cost. Earnings Season continues to roll along as markets enter the seasonally-weaker period of the year. Lance and Michael discuss PPI and what the Fed might be thinking next. The Question de Jour is what is happening with bonds. NOTE: Lance reveals more details about our upcoming programming changes; pay attention! Lance & Michael discuss how we manage Bonds; the surge in retail speculation and the performance (?) of Mag-7 stocks (meh). Michael discusses the two forms of Volatility, and Lance preaches to the YouTube Chat choir. SEG-1: PPI Comes in Flat - Markets Prepare for Correction SEG-2: What is the FEd Thinking Now? SEG-3a: Show Changes Coming SEG-3b: How We Manage Bond Portfolios SEG-3c: Has the Mag-7 Lost its Magic? SEG-4a: YouTube Chat SEG-4b: S&P 500 Realized vs Implied Volatility Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFXBBqri1lo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Magnificent Seven Are Mediocre" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-magnificent-seven-are-mediocre/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prepare Now for Correction," is here: https://youtu.be/VDnRZFc0Hpw ------- Our previous show is here: "SPAC's are Back!," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaCxUW2BClU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #ContrarianIndicator #Technology #LiberationDay #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #BondPortfolio #MagnificentSeven #StockMarketUpdate #TechStocks #MarketOutlook2025 #InvestmentStrategy #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-17-25 Prepare Now for Correction | Before the Bell

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2025 4:26

Earnings Season continues to roll, and the window for the buy back window won't be open until the end of the month. Starting today, markets tend to enter a seasonally-weaker period of the year as investors process earnings and volatility begins to tick higher. Market action has already been slack over the past couple of weeks, and it's highly deviated from moving averages. A reversal back to the 200-DMA is worth a 6% decline, a move that would be well-within historical norms. Of concern now is the high levels of retail investor speculation, making up about 14% of trading volume. That's more than was seen during the "meme mania" of 2021 (12%). Such spikes in speculation typically occurs at a market peak, and is a set up for market correction. We cannot stress enough the importance of taking opportunity to rebalance risk and take profits now. A 6% correction ain't nothin'. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://youtu.be/VDnRZFc0Hpw ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #ContrarianIndicator #Technology #LiberationDay #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

7-17-25 The Magnificent 7 Are Mediocre

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2025 46:15

Are the Magnificent Seven losing their magic? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz get the real story behind Magnificent Seven stocks performance and what it means for your investment strategy. Lance reviews this week's PPI report (flat) showing little to no effects from tariffs. Yet. The make up of the US economy (80% services) is such that corporations will primarily pay tariffs, and likely not pass along much of the additional cost. Earnings Season continues to roll along as markets enter the seasonally-weaker period of the year. Lance and Michael discuss PPI and what the Fed might be thinking next. The Question de Jour is what is happening with bonds. NOTE: Lance reveals more details about our upcoming programming changes; pay attention! Lance & Michael discuss how we manage Bonds; the surge in retail speculation and the performance (?) of Mag-7 stocks (meh). Michael discusses the two forms of Volatility, and Lance preaches to the YouTube Chat choir. SEG-1: PPI Comes in Flat - Markets Prepare for Correction SEG-2: What is the FEd Thinking Now? SEG-3a: Show Changes Coming SEG-3b: How We Manage Bond Portfolios SEG-3c: Has the Mag-7 Lost its Magic? SEG-4a: YouTube Chat SEG-4b: S&P 500 Realized vs Implied Volatility Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFXBBqri1lo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Magnificent Seven Are Mediocre" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-magnificent-seven-are-mediocre/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prepare Now for Correction," is here: https://youtu.be/VDnRZFc0Hpw ------- Our previous show is here: "SPAC's are Back!," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaCxUW2BClU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #ContrarianIndicator #Technology #LiberationDay #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #BondPortfolio #MagnificentSeven #StockMarketUpdate #TechStocks #MarketOutlook2025 #InvestmentStrategy #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-16-25 SPAC's Are Back

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2025 46:16

SPAC's (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) are making headlines again. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down why SPAC investing is back in 2025, what's driving the latest SPAC market trends, and what investors need to know before jumping in. Are these deals a golden opportunity or another speculative bubble? Earnings Season continues with Banks' reports and the effects of stock buy backs beginning to wane. Tuesday's CPI print had something for everyone; will PPI finally show effects of tariffs? We're preparing for 3-5% correction by mid-August or September. Will President Trump replace Jerome Powell at the Fed? What really matters is what markets wants: An independent Fed. Should the Fed be cutting rates now? (The Fed is always late.) Lance & Danny discuss who really pays tariff fees (producers); eating out and budget leakage. Wall Street will sellyou anything you want, even when you don't know what it is yet: SPAC's are back, along with a voracious appetite for risk. When investors are all-in, that sets up for correction. Danny describes new challenges to Roth Conversions under the Big Beautiful Bill...and impromptu revelation of grade school antics and interpersonal relationships...and commentary on speculative risk returning to the market. SEG-1: Bank Earnings Review, PPI Preview, and Contrarian Indicators SEG-2: Will Trump Replace Powell? SEG-3: SPAC's are Bank - Will St. Will Sell You What You Want SEG-4a: Roth Conversations Under the Big Beautiful Bill SEG-4b: If Lance Was a Bully SEG-4c: Speculative Risk Returns to the Market Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaCxUW2BClU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Turtle Trading" "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Bullish Sentiment is a Contrarian Indicator," is here: https://youtu.be/4k2AfV8moZ8 ------- Our previous show is here: "Two Dad's on Money," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm-FNuRdgB0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #BullishSentiment #ContrarianIndicator #Technology #LiberationDay #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #SPACs #SPACInvesting #StockMarketTrends #InvestingNews #FinancialMarkets #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-16-25 Bullish Sentiment is a Contrarian Indicator | Before the Bell

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2025 3:53

Markets are doing what the markets do best: Consolidating following a rally. Elevated momentum signals are flipping back and forth (not uncommon), and relative strength is coming down from over-bought levels. This is keeping markets from making much of an advance. The back-and-forth debate over Fed rate cuts is also making things uncertain: The markets want a rate cut, but if inflation shows up in the form of tariff impacts on PPI numbers, that news will weigh on markets today (the report to be published after this post). None of this mitigates the risk of a 3-5% correction as early as mid-August. One of the recent "propellants" for the markets from recent lows was the under-weighting by asset managers in Tech prior to Liberation Day. Now playing catch up, they're buying up those shares to rebalance portfolios, and that's resulted in a huge surge in positioning and sentiment. (Remember, sentiment is a contrarian indicator: When everyone is bullish, and everyone has bought, that leaves a vaccuum beneath stocks, where the next buyers will be in a correction). We think we'll see that happen sometime in August or September. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://youtu.be/4k2AfV8moZ8 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #BullishSentiment #ContrarianIndicator #Technology #LiberationDay #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

7-15-25 Two Dad's on Money

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2025 46:12

What kinds of traps and pitfalls could younger investors be falling into? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn provide advice from Two Dad's on Money in today's episode: Nvidia is shipping its H-20 chips to China; Lance previews this week's CPI and PPI reports; earnings season is underway, stock buy backs have dominated, surging higher than ever, but will taper; Markets prepare for sector rotations. Lance & Jonathan discuss the differences betweem trading and speculating, the Math of Loss, and the cost of starting over. How to successfully speculate with little money (there are some caveats!) High risk vs low risk; The one thing you cannot squander: Time. The power of saving. SEG-1: Nvidia Ships Chips; CPI, PPI Previews SEG-2: The Difference Between Investing & Speculating SEG-3: How to Successfully Speculate SEG-4: The One Thing You Must Not Squander Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm-FNuRdgB0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Turtle Trading" "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Set for Rotation," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diYGZ_-lLMI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Relative Returns Or Absolute: What's More Important?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbuyQ4mMSas&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketRotation #Transportation #Technology #Industrials #AI #AIbuildOut #ArtificialIntelligence #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #FinancialAdviceForKids #MoneyLessonsFromDad #TeachingKidsMoney #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-15-25 Markets Set for Rotation | Before the Bell

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2025 4:18

Another market rally Monday, flirting again with all-time highs. While there is nothing overall concerning about the markets, they're always setting up for some kind of rotation. There are a few things to pay attention to now. The market is being primarily driven by three sectors: Industrials, Transportation, and Technology. Those secotrs have been outperforming relative to the S&P. Technology has been leading the charge, of late; Industrials have also been posting well. Both are tied to the AI buildout. What will happen next, as these sectors become over bought, is money moving to risk-off areas, like Staples, which have been under-performing lately. Money doesn't leave the market, it just changes where it goes. There is a pretty big deviation between the risk-on and risk-off trades. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diYGZ_-lLMI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketRotation #Transportation #Technology #Industrials #AI #AIbuildOut #ArtificialIntelligence #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

7-14-25 Market Risks Ahead of Earnings Season | Before the Bell

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2025 4:38

Earnings Season begins this week; technically, markets are doing okay. This weekend's Bull Bear Report lays out a three month preview of what markets are likely to do on a probability basis. There is a 50-50 chance the current bull market trend will contimnue, because there's not a lot to bring this market down. BUT...the other side of that argument includes a choppy market thru the end of the year, and/or we get a correction at some point. Looking at markets from back in May, things were very over bought, leading to a correction back to the 200-DMA, which was a very good set up for adding money to portfolios. The same type of topping pattern in relative strength is emerging, and we're expecting some kind of medium-term correction at some point. A 5% correction back to the 6,000 level is a distinct possibility. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUggnhse9kk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #Tariff #EarningsSeason #Nvidia #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

"I've Not Seen This Level Of Market Speculation Since 1999" | Lance Roberts

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2025 108:36

Investors appear just blind to risk at this point.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says he hasn't seen this high degree of speculation in the markets since 1999.At some point, the chickens will likely come back to roost. But in the near term, the essential question investors need to address is: How much higher will the rally continue?Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as what to expect from the start of Q2 earnings season, whether the Fed will cut soon and if that will be a "sell the news event". As always, we close by discussing Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything the mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#earnings #bullmarket #ratecut _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

7-10-25 Will Lower Rates Cure Higher Prices

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2025 46:13

As inflation remains elevated and the Federal Reserve begins to shift its tone, markets are asking: Will lower interest rates actually bring prices down — or make them worse? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz unpack the delicate balance between monetary policy, consumer behavior, and price pressures: * The historical relationship between rate cuts and inflation * Why inflation may be more “sticky” than expected * How consumer demand and debt loads are reshaped by lower rates * The unintended consequences of looser policy on asset prices * What this means for investors and retirees going forward SEG-1: Why Economists Expect Higher Growth by 2026 SEG-2: Growth is Back in Vogue SEG-3a: Like & Subscribe tease - changes coming SEG-3b: Can Lower Rates Cure Higher Prices? SEG-4a: Coffee Cafe, ChatGPT, & Economic Haiku SEG-4b: Earnings Season Preview: Tariff Effects? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDzRO8ePU-Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Might Lower Rates Be The Cure For Higher Prices?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/might-lower-rates-be-the-cure-for-higher-prices/ "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "7-10-25 Nvidia is not Dead," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueeSGu1M0dg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Protect Your Multi-decade Retirement From Inflation," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4MmYoAZvc0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #Volatility #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #Tariff #EarningsSeason #Nvidia #InterestRates #InflationControl #FederalReserve #EconomicPolicy #PriceStability#InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-10-25 Will Lower Rates Cure Higher Prices?

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2025 46:14

As inflation remains elevated and the Federal Reserve begins to shift its tone, markets are asking: Will lower interest rates actually bring prices down — or make them worse? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz unpack the delicate balance between monetary policy, consumer behavior, and price pressures: * The historical relationship between rate cuts and inflation * Why inflation may be more “sticky” than expected * How consumer demand and debt loads are reshaped by lower rates * The unintended consequences of looser policy on asset prices * What this means for investors and retirees going forward SEG-1: Why Economists Expect Higher Growth by 2026 SEG-2: Growth is Back in Vogue SEG-3a: Like & Subscribe tease - changes coming SEG-3b: Can Lower Rates Cure Higher Prices? SEG-4a: Coffee Cafe, ChatGPT, & Economic Haiku SEG-4b: Earnings Season Preview: Tariff Effects? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDzRO8ePU-Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Might Lower Rates Be The Cure For Higher Prices?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/might-lower-rates-be-the-cure-for-higher-prices/ "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "7-10-25 Nvidia is not Dead," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueeSGu1M0dg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Protect Your Multi-decade Retirement From Inflation," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4MmYoAZvc0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #Volatility #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #Tariff #EarningsSeason #Nvidia #InterestRates #InflationControl #FederalReserve #EconomicPolicy #PriceStability#InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-10-25 Nvidia is not Dead | Before the Bell

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2025 5:34

Economists are expecting a sharp pick up in economic growth before the end of the year, despite earlier, pre-tariff weaknesses. News about more threatened tariffs notwithstanding, economists are looking past all that. Interestingly, that's the needed premise to support expectations for much stronger earnings growth from analysts into the end of the year. So future expectations are seeming to support where valuations are trading. 6,900 is now a realistic target by the end of the year for analysts. This elevated sentiment and sheer exuberance should be taken as a caution sign because markets are very, very over bought. Also on Wednesday, Nvidia became the first $4-Trillion company. Ever. Clearly, Nvidia is NOT dead. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueeSGu1M0dg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #Volatility #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #Tariff #EarningsSeason #Nvidia #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

7-9-25 How to Protect Your Multi-decade Retirement from Inflation

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2025 46:17

More Tariff trouble on the horizon, but markets have seen this movie before (The Stick & Carrot Show). Market risk remains, as markets are highly deviated. Sentiment remains positive; there's a large gap between market performance and economic data, however. Deviations tend to resolve themselves to the downside. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff reveal how to shield your retirement savings from decades of inflation: The necessity of Inflation and how to deal with it (inflation is a function of economic growth); the mistake of being too conservative, fear of The Black Swan that never appears. Lance reveals his memory challenges; living thru market downturns, and lessons learned. Market downturns don't happen over night. Treasuries vs Equities: What's the proper blend? Passive Investing is an oxymoron. Risk management is essential for fighting inflation. SEG-1: Tariff Threats Return, Market Risk Rises SEG-2: The Necessity of Inflation and How to Deal With It SEG-3a: Lance's Dementia Test SEG-3b: Living thru Market Downturns SEG-4: Inflation-proofing Retirement - Treasuries vs Equities RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4MmYoAZvc0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Risk is Rising," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdRpxHuJF4s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "ETF's Are Eating the World," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18uxAOHUAE0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2 ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #Volatility #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #RetirementPlanning #InflationProtection #RetirementSavings #FinancialFreedom #SmartInvesting #InvestingStrategies #FinancialMarkets #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-9-25 Market Risk is Rising | Before the Bell

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2025 4:42

The big divergences between markets and their moving averages typically resolve themselves to the downside. There is now risk down to about 6,000 on the S&P, which would bring us back to the breakout prior to the all-time high. A correction would help reset the market's over bought condition. Volatility is down; that's a function of options trading, and no one seems to want to hedge portfolios against a downsized market. There is no risk control in portfolios presently because investors would rather chase the upside in markets. That's always a danger. A correction could come at any time. All the ingredients are in place, just waiting for a catalyst to get buyers out of the market and bring sellers back in. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdRpxHuJF4s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #Volatility #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Roberts: META & NVDA Will Lead Mag 7, Temper Growth Expectations

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2025 8:12

Retail investors continue to push the bull market further, according to Lance Roberts, noting the strength in first and second-hand A.I. stocks leading that charge. He mentions Meta Platforms (META) and Nvidia (NVDA) as the companies he sees sending markets higher. However, Lance urges investors to "temper your expectations" with many tech stocks already having significant runs higher.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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7-8-25 ETF's are Eating the World

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2025 46:15

Earnings season is upon us; will volatility pick up? A bigger question will be how tariffs may affect corporate earnings. Employment numbers are dipping into contraction zone as the economy slows. Markets sell off on renewed tariff news. Crude oil prices are creeping back up. No one is expecting correction...which is when they usually appear. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have exploded in popularity—driving a massive shift from active to passive investing. But is this trend distorting markets and concentrating risk? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn explore how ETF growth may be reshaping price discovery, liquidity, and investor behavior: Why do investors choose single-stock ETF's? Leverage. But that cuts both ways, when stocks are going up as well as going down. Lance and Jonathan examine FUnd performance vs Indexes over time. The irony of ETF's: They're passive, but being traded like stocks because of a "get-rich-quick" mentality. Speculation leads to broken markets. Lance and Jonathan discuss the US Dollar and why it remains the default reserve currency of the world, even as the mix of currencies evolves. Lance advises when it's time to be bearish. SEG-1: Earnings Season Prelude - No Fear of Correction SEG-2: Astro's & ETF's - It's All About Leverage SEG-3: The Irony of ETF's SEG-4: Dealing with the Dollar RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18uxAOHUAE0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "No Fear of Correction," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtaKUHTNq-Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Bull Market is Alive and Well" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtaiG62GGL4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=141s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #BullishMarket #InvestorGreed #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #OilPrices #Tariffs #ETFs #PassiveInvesting #MarketTrends #InvestingStrategies #FinancialMarkets #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-8-25 ETF's Are Eating the World

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2025 46:16

Earnings season is upon us; will volatility pick up? A bigger question will be how tariffs may affect corporate earnings. Employment numbers are dipping into contraction zone as the economy slows. Markets sell off on renewed tariff news. Crude oil prices are creeping back up. No one is expecting correction...which is when they usually appear. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have exploded in popularity—driving a massive shift from active to passive investing. But is this trend distorting markets and concentrating risk? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn explore how ETF growth may be reshaping price discovery, liquidity, and investor behavior: Why do investors choose single-stock ETF's? Leverage. But that cuts both ways, when stocks are going up as well as going down. Lance and Jonathan examine FUnd performance vs Indexes over time. The irony of ETF's: They're passive, but being traded like stocks because of a "get-rich-quick" mentality. Speculation leads to broken markets. Lance and Jonathan discuss the US Dollar and why it remains the default reserve currency of the world, even as the mix of currencies evolves. Lance advises when it's time to be bearish. SEG-1: Earnings Season Prelude - No Fear of Correction SEG-2: Astro's & ETF's - It's All About Leverage SEG-3: The Irony of ETF's SEG-4: Dealing with the Dollar RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18uxAOHUAE0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "No Fear of Correction," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtaKUHTNq-Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Bull Market is Alive and Well" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtaiG62GGL4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=141s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #BullishMarket #InvestorGreed #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #OilPrices #Tariffs #ETFs #PassiveInvesting #MarketTrends #InvestingStrategies #FinancialMarkets #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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7-8-25 No Fear of Correction | Before the Bell

register markets gulf correction cio treasury no fear crude dma big stories lance roberts

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2025 4:10

Markets sold off on the announcement of new tariffs to be imposed in August, not surprisingly, in a start to working off markets' over sold condition. We're expecting more sloppiness for the next week or so. Markets are pretty deviated from the 20-, 50-, and 200-DMA's, and the "gravitational pull" of averages is likely to draw down stock prices at some point. 10-year Treasury yields have been on the rise the last few days. Why? Treasury Auctions are this week, and traders want to short the market to drive up yields, drive prices down ahead of that action. Crude oil has also been one of The Big Stories as of late, and prices are beginning to creep back up around $67-68/bbl. If oil can break above the 200-DMA, expect higher prices; we are also in hurricane season, and any closure of oil rigs in the Gulf will also goose prices higher. The Skew Index is reflecting a lot of volatility evaporating out of the markets as speculation returns. There is no fear of a correction now...which is generally a good time to hedge against one. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtaKUHTNq-Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #BullishMarket #InvestorGreed #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #OilPrices #Tariffs #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

7-7-25 Greed Is At Extreme Levels | Before the Bell

investors register extreme levels markets greed tariffs cio lance roberts

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2025 3:35

Markets did NOT crash while we were on vacation! Investor greed, however, is at extreme levels, along with over bought levels in the market, and the 13 composite technical indicators we track. There is lots of retail speculation afoot, and whenever you see things at this high level, this is where you're set up for some type of event to cause a short term correction or consolidation. What that event might be, nobody knows. Tariffs could play a role here. This is not a great place to chase markets; instead, this could be an opportunity to re-balance risk in portfolios and take some profits if you've had big gains in the recent rally. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lneFe1hqJc4 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #BullishMarket #InvestorGreed #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The Economy Is Weakening & Stocks Will Have To Fall To Reflect That | Michael Lebowitz

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2025 96:47

The economy is showing increasing signs of weakening, and eventually stock prices are going to have to reflect that predicts portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz -- who guest stars in this week's Market Recap while Lance Roberts is traveling in the UK.Earnings estimates for the rest of this year and next are very optimistic, perhaps unrealistically so.Should the economy continue to weaken, the chances of attaining those earnings results will drop so low that Wall Street will have to start demanding that stocks trade at a discount to current prices.Michael and I discuss the logic why, as well dig into the newest -- and controversial -- non-farms payroll data, inflation expectations & bond yields, the investment potential of the artificial intelligence & energy sectors, and the future of Tesla.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #marketcorrection #tesla 0:00 - Welcome and Fourth of July Greetings2:20 - Market Technicals and Potential Melt-Up7:21 - Seasonal Trends and Upcoming Catalysts11:46 - Wall of Worry and Market Resilience16:17 - Drivers of the Market Breakout21:14 - Technical Indicators and Consolidation Needs22:56 - June Non-Farm Payrolls Report Analysis27:22 - Discrepancies in BLS and ADP Data32:26 - Economic Slowdown Signals36:42 - AI and Economic Growth Potential44:29 - Energy and AI Investment Opportunities56:00 - Upcoming AI and Energy Investing Event59:40 - Tesla and AI's Physical Applications1:18:24 - Rant: Societal Risks of AI and UBI1:29:32 - Preparing for AI's Impact1:34:16 - Closing and Financial Advice_____________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Markets Are Back At An All-Time High & Speculation Is Out of Control | Lance Roberts

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2025 104:47

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that speculation is running rampant among retail investors now. Yes, the market is now at an all-time high and the bulls are in charge.But as stocks are back to being overbought in the short term and earnings forecasts are likely going to have to be ratcheted down sometime soon, the risk of a blow-off top followed by a reversal is not low.We discuss the odds of that, plus potential market black swans and white swans, the growing student loan default crisis, weakening housing, cooling jobs markets, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#speculation #bullmarket #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

6-26-25 The Fed's Next Mistake

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2025 46:25

Is the Fed setting the stage for another policy blunder? As inflation pressures linger and economic growth slows, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the risks of the central bank's next move—and what it could mean for your money on this morning's episode of #TheRealInvestmentShow. The Market Rally is ON, yet oil prices are telling a different story about the economy. President Trump could be picking a successor to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sooner than later. Lance and Michael expose the Fed's political "independance," and it's proclivity for financial socialism. The Fed is always late...and always wrong. The true role of the Fed is to protect its member banks. Jerome Powell doesn't mind being late. The ill-fated push to lower bank's minimum reserve requirements. Again. (Did we not learn from the past?) SEG-1: Vacation Prelude - The Rally is On SEG-2: The Folly of the Fed & Financial Socialism SEG-3: Economic Data Shows Weaking - Will the Fed be too late? SEG-4: The Fed is Always Wrong RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8wHxhOOWMQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this show: "Iran Struck By U.S.: Markets, Risk, and Rational Investing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/iran-stuck-by-u-s-markets-risk-and-rational-investing/ "The Dollar's Death Is Greatly Exaggerated" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollars-death-is-greatly-exaggerated/ "Oil Price Rise, Not Tariffs, Will Cause CPI To Tick Up" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/oil-price-rise-not-tariffs-will-cause-cpi-to-tick-up/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Oil Prices Are Saying About the Economy," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiMvWO2ZDX8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Bulls Are Back in Town," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ-J2YfNC5w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #BullishMarket #OilPrices #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #InflationOutlook #RecessionRisk #FedMistake #FinancialMarketsToday #GeopoliticalRisk #StockMarketNews #IranUSConflict #MarketRally #BullishMarket #OilPrices #Tariffs #IranIsraelConflict #SmartInvesting #MarketVolatility #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-26-25 What Oil Prices Are Saying About the Economy | Before the Bell

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2025 4:19

In case you haven't noticed, the market's been in a rally ever since the April lows. Investor sentiment is finally turning more extreme-bullish. The whole Tariff thing is not A Thing; the Debt Crisis is not A Thing; World War 3 is not A Thing. Investors are starting to look past all this, and sentiment is on the rise. Markets on Wednesday knocked on the door of another all-time high; the NASDAQ achieved that milestone. Again. And it is possible the S&P will set a new, all-time high this week. Under the surface, things are over bought but not extremely stretched. July tends to be an event stronger month; August/September tend to be a lot weaker. If there is a risk of another correction, it will probably happen in August or September; not likely in July. Of note have been oil prices, seeing a sharp spike after the Israel/Iran conflict and the Iran bombings, but then falling equally as quickly. Oil prices have collapsed, sitting on support at the 50-DMA, and still on a sell signal. It would be no surprise to see oil bounce a bit from this level, but prices are going to remain stuck in the $60/bbl range for a while. Oil prices are being more reflective of economic data, which is showing sluggishness in the economy: Reduced economic demand = reduced demand for oil. Oil pries are actually telling us a lot about the economy, heading into the Summer. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiMvWO2ZDX8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #BullishMarket #OilPrices #Tariffs #IranIsraelConflict #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-25-25 Markets' Trajectory Remains Bullish | Before the Bell

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 25, 2025 4:36

Markets enjoyed a very nice rally on Tuesday, up by about 1% by the end of the day. A little bit of a sell-off right before the end of the session restrained markets from achieving another all-time high. The trajectory of the market remains bullish. Lance discusses progress since the Death Cross in the Spring; the difference between when a Death Cross matters or not is whether a Recession occurs afterwards. The NASDAQ is actually at all-time highs, triggering a "Golden Cross." If the NASDAQ continues to set new, all-time highs, it will drag the S&P with it. Despite these achievements, we're still expecting some sloppiness in the markets; use any dips as an opportunity to buy at lower prices. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRzdiS6C1vc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #BullishMarket #BuyTheDip #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

6-24-25 Is WW III Off the Table?

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 46:24

Is the threat of World War III finally off the table? Lance Roberts breaks down the latest developments in global conflict and what they mean for financial markets. From oil prices and defense stocks to safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries, we'll unpack how investors should think about geopolitical risk now. Are markets too complacent—or is the worst truly behind us? Is Apple dead? Lance addresses a YouTube Chatroom query with analysis of how Apple continues to do well, despite a paucity of innovation; why 420 ETF's all own Apple; the evolution of the smartphone. Why you need Apple in your portfolio. What is the next narrative of the Summer? Is the Fed trapped (again)? SEG-1: Markets & The End of WW3 SEG-2 Is Apple Dead (It's not growing...) SEG-3: Why You Need Apple in Your Portfolio SEG-4: Cease Fire Violations & Summer's Next Narrative RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTZR3PEvaxc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this show: "Iran Struck By U.S.: Markets, Risk, and Rational Investing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/iran-stuck-by-u-s-markets-risk-and-rational-investing/ "The Dollar's Death Is Greatly Exaggerated" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollars-death-is-greatly-exaggerated/ "Oil Price Rise, Not Tariffs, Will Cause CPI To Tick Up" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/oil-price-rise-not-tariffs-will-cause-cpi-to-tick-up/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Bullish Prelude to July," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiUwcZ7ujqU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "U.S. Strikes Iran: How to Invest When Geopolitics Explode" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5GDPILjaAY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketConsolidation #BullishMarket #IranIsraelConflict #WorldWar3 #GeopoliticsAndMarkets #WarImpactOnStocks #GlobalConflict #FinancialMarketsToday #GeopoliticalRisk #StockMarketNews #IranUSConflict #SmartInvesting #MarketVolatility #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-24-25 Is WW III Off the Table?

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 46:25

Is the threat of World War III finally off the table? Lance Roberts breaks down the latest developments in global conflict and what they mean for financial markets. From oil prices and defense stocks to safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries, we'll unpack how investors should think about geopolitical risk now. Are markets too complacent—or is the worst truly behind us? Is Apple dead? Lance addresses a YouTube Chatroom query with analysis of how Apple continues to do well, despite a paucity of innovation; why 420 ETF's all own Apple; the evolution of the smartphone. Why you need Apple in your portfolio. What is the next narrative of the Summer? Is the Fed trapped (again)? SEG-1: Markets & The End of WW3 SEG-2 Is Apple Dead (It's not growing...) SEG-3: Why You Need Apple in Your Portfolio SEG-4: Cease Fire Violations & Summer's Next Narrative RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTZR3PEvaxc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this show: "Iran Struck By U.S.: Markets, Risk, and Rational Investing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/iran-stuck-by-u-s-markets-risk-and-rational-investing/ "The Dollar's Death Is Greatly Exaggerated" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollars-death-is-greatly-exaggerated/ "Oil Price Rise, Not Tariffs, Will Cause CPI To Tick Up" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/oil-price-rise-not-tariffs-will-cause-cpi-to-tick-up/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Bullish Prelude to July," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiUwcZ7ujqU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "U.S. Strikes Iran: How to Invest When Geopolitics Explode" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5GDPILjaAY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketConsolidation #BullishMarket #IranIsraelConflict #WorldWar3 #GeopoliticsAndMarkets #WarImpactOnStocks #GlobalConflict #FinancialMarketsToday #GeopoliticalRisk #StockMarketNews #IranUSConflict #SmartInvesting #MarketVolatility #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-24-25 Markets' Bullish Prelude to July

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 4:49

Markets on Monday were under a bit of pressure because of the weekend bombings in Iran and their nothing-burger response. Markets broke out of their consolidation and ended the day in the green, retaining a bullish stance. Markets held support at a previous top, and proved multiple levels on which there is solid footing. Unfortunately, there's not a tremendous amount of upside from where we are now, but technicals are improving. The downside risk is down to 2,800, and there is about 100-points of upside, so the risk/reward is not great enough to be super-aggressive. Pay attention to slowing economic growth, and the a Federal Reserve that is content to hold pat on interest rates for now. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiUwcZ7ujqU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketConsolidation #BullishMarket #IranIsraelConflict #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

6-23-25 US Strikes Iran - How to Invest When Geopolitics Explode

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2025 46:23

Over the weekend, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. Of course, for Americans and the financial markets, the response from not only Iran but also Iran's allies will be critical. Lance Roberts describes a process of logical evaluation and portfolio risk management when markets experience turmoil: What matters most to investors? What do these attacks mean for earnings? How might geopolitics affect EOQ activity? [NOTE: Lance is on vacation next week, 6/30-7/4] Remembering the Japanese Carry Trade blow up vs Iran Bombings: There is not the same sense of urgency this time; markets have already moved-on. How will the Israel-Iran conflict play out? Watch "Top Gun." Likely outcomes will be higher oil prices, a stronger dollar, and weaker equities. SEG-1: Bombings in Iran: What Matters Most? SEG-2a: Lance's Summer Vacation Preview SEG-2b: Where's the Sense of Urgency? SEG-3: How the Iran-Israel Conflict Will Play Out SEG-4: Watching for Pickup in Volatility RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5GDPILjaAY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this show: "Iran Struck By U.S.: Markets, Risk, and Rational Investing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/iran-stuck-by-u-s-markets-risk-and-rational-investing/ "The Dollar's Death Is Greatly Exaggerated" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollars-death-is-greatly-exaggerated/ "Oil Price Rise, Not Tariffs, Will Cause CPI To Tick Up" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/oil-price-rise-not-tariffs-will-cause-cpi-to-tick-up/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Respond to Iran Bombings," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWM3nfbeF2I ------- Our previous show is here: "Fed Day Preview: Will They or Won't They?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEf6M7XXCqQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #CrudeOil #Gold #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #GeopoliticalRisk #StockMarketNews #IranUSConflict #SmartInvesting #MarketVolatility #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-23-25 U.S. Strikes Iran: How to Invest When Geopolitics Explode

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2025 46:24

Over the weekend, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. Of course, for Americans and the financial markets, the response from not only Iran but also Iran's allies will be critical. Lance Roberts describes a process of logical evaluation and portfolio risk management when markets experience turmoil: What matters most to investors? What do these attacks mean for earnings? How might geopolitics affect EOQ activity? [NOTE: Lance is on vacation next week, 6/30-7/4] Remembering the Japanese Carry Trade blow up vs Iran Bombings: There is not the same sense of urgency this time; markets have already moved-on. How will the Israel-Iran conflict play out? Watch "Top Gun." Likely outcomes will be higher oil prices, a stronger dollar, and weaker equities. SEG-1: Bombings in Iran: What Matters Most? SEG-2a: Lance's Summer Vacation Preview SEG-2b: Where's the Sense of Urgency? SEG-3: How the Iran-Israel Conflict Will Play Out SEG-4: Watching for Pickup in Volatility RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5GDPILjaAY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this show: "Iran Struck By U.S.: Markets, Risk, and Rational Investing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/iran-stuck-by-u-s-markets-risk-and-rational-investing/ "The Dollar's Death Is Greatly Exaggerated" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollars-death-is-greatly-exaggerated/ "Oil Price Rise, Not Tariffs, Will Cause CPI To Tick Up" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/oil-price-rise-not-tariffs-will-cause-cpi-to-tick-up/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Respond to Iran Bombings," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWM3nfbeF2I ------- Our previous show is here: "Fed Day Preview: Will They or Won't They?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEf6M7XXCqQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #CrudeOil #Gold #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #GeopoliticalRisk #StockMarketNews #IranUSConflict #SmartInvesting #MarketVolatility #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

americans risk iran watching invest register sense markets dollar strikes pickup won cio urgency bombings geopolitics explode israel iran lance roberts eoq real investment show therealinvestmentshow visit

6-23-25 Markets Respond to Iran Bombings

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2025 5:30

How are markets reacting to the weekend bombings in Iran? Futures are slightly positive. On Friday markets sold off, landing right on top of the 20-DMA; the market continues to work along this support line after working off about half of the over bought condition. Looking ahead to next month, July tends to be a stronger period, going into the third quarter, and buy back windows reopen. There may be a decent entry point by the end of this week. The Dollar was already beginning to rally prior to the weekend's geopolitical news, and there is a huge short position on the Dollar. If the US Dollar Index gets to 99- or 100, look for a pretty sharp rally in the Dollar as those shorts are forced to cover. And any rise in the Dollar is going to weigh on assets that are traded in dollars. For Oil Prices, the big concern is what's happening in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a backbone of oil prices; oil prices had spiked following the weekend's attacks, but have been cooling over the past few hours. Gold prices similarly had a lot of early gains on Sunday, but are starting to give up a large portion of those gains this morning. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWM3nfbeF2I ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Dollar's Death Is Greatly Exaggerated" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollars-death-is-greatly-exaggerated/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #CrudeOil #Gold #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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Market Risk Still To The Downside In Near Term, But Be Ready To Buy Back In | Lance Roberts

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 21, 2025 80:51

Stocks are still in a technical breakdown, approaching a test of the 20 Day daily moving average (DMA)Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the S&P could easily drop another 100 points or more until it hits support.Once it does, he thinks that will be a good time to add capital back into quality stocks that have sold off a bit.So in the near term, keep your powder dry -- but be ready to act once that moment arrives.Lance and I discuss this coming oppportunity, as well as AI, energy, Tesla, why the Fed is 'too late' in its policy response yet again, as well as Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #tesla #artificialintelligence _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

FBI Releases Secret Docs Exposing Mass Voter Fraud, Article by John Zmirak. Trump- Don't Let the Rioters Win and Gold Has Entered 3rd & FINAL Phase: Why $10,000 oz Could Be Coming.

American Conservative University

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2025 34:30

FBI Releases Secret Docs Exposing Mass Voter Fraud, Article by John Zmirak. Trump- Don't Let the Rioters Win and Gold Has Entered 3rd & FINAL Phase: Why $10,000 oz Could Be Coming. FBI Releases Secret Docs Exposing Mass Voter Fraud John Zmirak. Trump Learned the Bitter Lesson of 2020: Don't Let the Rioters Win Gold Has Entered 3rd & FINAL Phase: Why $10,000 oz Could Be Coming FBI Releases Secret Docs Exposing Mass Voter Fraud to Rig 2020 Election Against Trump! FAKE Ballots Watch this video at- https://youtu.be/SfK7CHs9ABw?si=39TbBb7dcAc39zo4 Benny Johnson 4.77M subscribers 158,699 views Jun 17, 2025 This story is INSANE! BECOME A MEMBER: / @bennyjohnson FOLLOW OUR NEW CHANNELS: Benny On The Block: / @bennyontheblock Benny's Brews: / @bennysbrews FOLLOW BENNY ON SOCIALS: https://www.bennyjohnson.com/follow CHECK OUT OUR MERCH: https://shop.bennyjohnson.com/ Sign up for The Benny Newsletter: https://www.bennyjohnson.com/newsletter SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST https://www.bennyjohnson.com/thebenny... Gold Has Entered 3rd & FINAL Phase: Why $10,000 oz Could Be Coming | Mike Maloney Join Mike Maloney, best-selling author and seasoned gold investor, as he unveils the third and final stage of gold's monumental bull market. In this eye-opening presentation, Mike draws compelling parallels between today's gold surge and the infamous 1970s gold rush — when prices soared 25x in just months. Discover why gold and silver are “Giffen goods” — assets that gain demand as prices rise — and how global fear, greed, and economic instability could ignite the Great Gold & Silver Rush of the 21st Century. Backed by 20+ years of research, historic data, and insider insights, this video reveals: Why institutional and media attention signals a coming stampede How modern markets are primed for a price explosion Why gold could surpass $3,000... $5,000... even $10,000 per ounce If you think gold's best days are behind it, think again. Watch this video at- https://youtu.be/dxr_9zdGmZA?si=E_kn2PyAHqR7-E04 GoldSilver 824K subscribers 58,592 views Jun 17, 2025 Get Mike Maloney's 1st book for free here: http://www.GoldSilver.com/freebook ----------------------------------------------------------------- GoldSilver is one of the most trusted names in precious metals. Since 2005, we've provided investors with both education and world-class bullion dealer services. We offer a wide selection of bullion products, private vault storage, global shipping, and easy payment choices. Buy Precious Metals at: https://www.goldsilver.com Get Free content from Mike's new book here: http://www.ggsr21.com Subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/goldsilver?... Get Essential Gold & Silver News—Delivered Twice a Week: https://goldsilver.com/join-our-newsl... Follow Mike on Twitter: / goldsilver_com Follow us on Facebook: / goldsilverdotcom Check out our sister channel Wealthion @Wealthion featuring regular guests such as Jim Rickards, Rick Rule, Stephanie Pomboy, Lance Roberts, John Hathaway, Alisdair McLeod, Simon Hunt, John Rubino, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and more. As always, thank you for your support. M. Article by John Zmirak: John Zmirak. Trump Learned the Bitter Lesson of 2020: Don't Let the Rioters Win Find the article at- https://stream.org/trump-learned-the-bitter-lesson-of-2020-dont-let-the-rioters-win/ Trump Learned the Bitter Lesson of 2020: Don't Let the Rioters Win By John Zmirak Published on June 12, 2025 As gangs of illegal aliens and radical activists attack ICE officers and now local police in the streets of Los Angeles, I'm reminded of the race riots of 2020, and the mistakes most of us made while they were happening. In case you've blotted those ugly memories from your mind, let's review what happened in the aftermath of the botched arrest of career criminal George Floyd: The police officers involved were immediately pulled from duty, then quickly arrested and charged. The System was working. There was literally nothing to riot about, except the vague and tendentious claim that “systemic racism” was killing black Americans. The Marxist group Black Lives Matter used Floyd's accidental death as a bloody shirt to wave around, demanding (and getting) hundreds of millions of dollars from large corporations to spend however it wished (for instance, on fancy homes and salaries). Conservative pundits and churches adopted that organization's mantra and offered uncritical support — desperate to establish their “antiracist” bona fides and protect their reputations. A series of coordinated “protests” erupted across the country, demanding that governments defund the police. Over and over, these protests turned violent, devolving into riots that saw the looting of neighborhoods poor and rich alike. Our media gaslit us with reports that these events were “mostly peaceful,” even as fires lit by arsonists raged on camera in the background. In blue states like Minnesota and California, Democrat governors who were savagely enforcing COVID lockdowns allowed the rioters to run free — pulling police from the scene and refusing to use their National Guards to protect citizens and their property. This was the starkest example of anarcho-tyranny in U.S. history … until the January 6 fedsurrection, that is. People who sneered when black entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Herman Cain died of COVID after attending a Trump campaign event and insisted that in-person voting was too dangerous to be allowed defended the riots publicly from the charge that they were “superspreader events.” Their excuse? “Racism is a threat to public health.” Trump did not federalize the National Guard in those rogue states to impose law and order. Like many of his supporters, and likely the advisors who convinced him to remain inert, I reasoned, “Let the blue cities burn. We'll make sure the federal government doesn't pay to rebuild them. The Left is trying to trap Trump into overreacting by using force in the hope that civilians will suffer and he will look like the dictator they've been calling him since Election Night 2016.” I now realize Step 6 was a huge mistake, as I'm sure Trump and his team had the chance to reflect on during the four years of lawfare and chaos they all endured under The Secret Committee Formerly Known As Joe Biden. Now, we need to analyze why this is true so we can give full-throated support to restoring the rule of law today. Abandoning Territory to Marxist Gangs Is Wrong Donald Trump is president of the entire United States, and he works for every American. That includes law-abiding citizens in blue states and cities who might not support mayors and governors committed to flouting U.S. laws on immigration, citizenship, and public order. Trump represents the harried, hunted police who work in Los Angeles and the taxpayers forced to fund the health care, education, and even transgender treatments of millions of illegal aliens the Biden regime let in. We're supposed to love our neighbor. At minimum that includes our fellow Americans — even those deluded enough to believe that we owe citizenship and welfare payments to foreigners who broke into our national home. Just as we shouldn't hand out free heroin to addicts and shrug at the thought that they might OD, we shouldn't hand anarchy to Californians and Minnesotans, even if it's what they say they want. “Stinks to be you” isn't a New Testament maxim. When Moderation Looks Like Weakness, It Is Weakness Letting blue cities burn or sink in their own squalor sounds tempting. However, it's not just a crime: it's a blunder, as political philosopher Yoram Hazony points out. The spectacle of U.S. cities roiling with chaos, falling into the hands of Leftist mobs waving foreign flags, makes America look weak and vulnerable in the eyes of its foreign enemies. Furthermore, it makes any president who presides over it seem like a wounded, crippled giant. That was true in 2020, and it's even truer today — when the riots are aimed not at some nebulous, made-up bogeyman like “systemic racism” or “whiteness,” but directly at the law enforcement policies that got Trump elected and are, rightly, very popular: mass repatriation of blatantly illegal aliens. These riots are aimed at Trump as a leader and his voters as citizens. They are armed, organized efforts to deprive the U.S. government of its legitimate monopoly on violence in large swathes of its territory. If Trump isn't willing to take every legal, constitutional measure to crush them and punish the perpetrators, he might as well resign right now and flee with his family into exile like the former Shah of Iran. Of course, that would leave all of us under a revolutionary tyranny every bit as ugly as Iran's. Mobs Follow the Strong and Scorn the Weak It's a sad fact of fallen human nature: A high percentage of people don't join causes or adopt opinions because of rational argumentation, or even moral sentiments. People flock to the strong and steadfast, and naturally feel contempt for those who lack the courage of their convictions. One of the main reasons that George Washington became first a national hero, then our leader in the fight for independence, was his obvious personal fearlessness. Bullets whizzed past him, shot through his hat and even his coat, and he was unperturbed. By contrast, the rival General Horatio Gates who sought to replace Washington at the head of the Continental Army disgraced himself by fleeing a 1780 military defeat at Camden, S.C., leaving his beaten troops behind. Trump can't afford to do the same today. Please Support The Stream: Equipping Christians to Think Clearly About the Political, Economic, and Moral Issues of Our Day. Even thugs who stand for evil ideas can gather a following for their bravery. In their case, it's the gumption of bullies, and attracts other would-be bullies. But that's how warlords have triumphed all too often for millennia. The thugs of illegal alien mobs, backed by the bullies in power in cities like Los Angeles, are counting on decent people to hide in their homes and on Trump to hide in the White House. We cannot let these lawless, unpatriotic, un-American mobs raise foreign flags over our cities. There's a word for that: It's “surrender.” We didn't vote for a white flag, but for the man who stood tall while bleeding and shouted, “Fight, fight, fight!” ----------------------------------------------------------------------- John Zmirak is a senior editor at The Stream and author or coauthor of 14 books, including The Politically Incorrect Guide to Immigration and The Politically Incorrect Guide to Catholicism. His newest book is No Second Amendment, No First. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Check out our ACU Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/ACUPodcast HELP ACU SPREAD THE WORD! Please go to Apple Podcasts and give ACU a 5 star rating. Apple canceled us and now we are clawing our way back to the top. Don't let the Leftist win. Do it now! Thanks. Also Rate us on any platform you follow us on. It helps a lot. Forward this show to friends. Ways to subscribe to the American Conservative University Podcast Click here to subscribe via Apple Podcasts Click here to subscribe via RSS You can also subscribe via Stitcher FM Player Podcast Addict Tune-in Podcasts Pandora Look us up on Amazon Prime …And Many Other Podcast Aggregators and sites ACU on Twitter- https://twitter.com/AmerConU . Warning- Explicit and Violent video content. Please help ACU by submitting your Show ideas. Email us at americanconservativeuniversity@americanconservativeuniversity.com Endorsed Charities -------------------------------------------------------- Pre-Born! Saving babies and Souls. https://preborn.org/ OUR MISSION To glorify Jesus Christ by leading and equipping pregnancy clinics to save more babies and souls. WHAT WE DO Pre-Born! partners with life-affirming pregnancy clinics all across the nation. 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The CSI team provides comfort, encouragement, and a shoulder to lean on while they tell their stories and begin their new lives. Thank you for your compassion Giving the Gift of Freedom and Hope to the Enslaved South Sudanese -------------------------------------------------------- Food For the Poor https://foodforthepoor.org/ Help us serve the poorest of the poor Food For The Poor began in 1982 in Jamaica. Today, our interdenominational Christian ministry serves the poor in primarily 17 countries throughout the Caribbean and Latin America. Thanks to our faithful donors, we are able to provide food, housing, healthcare, education, fresh water, emergency relief, micro-enterprise solutions and much more. We are proud to have fed millions of people and provided more than 15.7 billion dollars in aid. Our faith inspires us to be an organization built on compassion, and motivated by love. Our mission is to bring relief to the poorest of the poor in the countries where we serve. We strive to reflect God's unconditional love. It's a sacrificial love that embraces all people regardless of race or religion. We believe that we can show His love by serving the “least of these” on this earth as Christ challenged us to do in Matthew 25. We pray that by God's grace, and with your support, we can continue to bring relief to the suffering and hope to the hopeless. Report on Food For the Poor by Charity Navigator https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/592174510 -------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer from ACU. We try to bring to our students and alumni the World's best Conservative thinkers. All views expressed belong solely to the author and not necessarily to ACU. In all issues and relations, we hope to follow the admonitions of Jesus Christ. While striving to expose, warn and contend with evil, we extend the love of God to all of his children. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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6-18-25 Fed Day Preview - Will They or Won't They?

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2025 46:13

It's Fed Day! Will the Federal Reserve finally cut rates—or kick the can again? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down what's at stake, what markets are pricing in, and what it means for your money. Thursday is Juneteenth, markets are closed, and so are we. Lance reviews the track for crude oil prices and the likely effect on inflation as the Iran-Israel conflict continues. What will Jerome Powell say following today's Fed meeting? Fed grammar matters. Danny and Lance review elements of the Big, Beautiful Bill as it bounces between the House and Senate; contents subject to change. Lance points out the insane irony of the Dept. of Agriculture's stance on feeding wildlife vs. feeding the masses. Danny and Lance review a Barron's article depicting a dilemma of wanting to retire early on limited savings, and live to 98. Hilarity ensues. SEG-1: Juneteenth & Fed Day SEG-2a: Fed Meeting Preview & Market Sentiment SEG-2b: The BIg, Beautiful Bill - Pt.1 SEG-3: The Big, Beautiful Bill - Pt.2 SEG-4: Can You Afford to Retire? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEf6M7XXCqQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mention in this show: "The Bull Rally Continues" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-bull-rally-continues/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Oil Prices Are On the Rise," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O6HNmfPPb4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's the Difference Between Fixed Income and "Stable" Income?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV5Oepv5zPM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #CrudeOil #Inflation #SupplyDemand #FedDay #FederalReserve #FedRateDecision #FOMC #InterestRateCut #JeromePowell #FinanceNews #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #GeopoliticalRisk #FixedIncome #StableIncome #RetirementPlanning #IncomeInvesting #FinancialEducation #MarketVolatility #BigBeautifulBill #DeptAgriculture #ParksWildlife #SNAP #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-18-25 Why Oil Prices Are On the Rise

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2025 4:31

Oil prices are on the rise in response to the current turmoil in the Middle East. Will this feed into higher inflation? The cure for higher oil prices is higher oil prices because it crimps off demand. The Fed has been concerned about inflation from tariffs, but that hasn't been the case. Now, the spectre of hotter inflation is rising with oil price increases; however, this all must be put into context: a longer view of oil price oscillations have not seen much of a spike. We may see a small increase in inflation, but not nearly to the degree the media would have you believe. When the Iran-Israel conflict ends, oil prices will slide back down. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O6HNmfPPb4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #CrudeOil #Inflation #SupplyDemand #FederalReserve #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

6-17-25 What's the Difference Between Fixed Income & Stable Income?

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2025 46:15

What's the difference between fixed income and "stable" income? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down the key differences between Dividend Stocks vs fixed income investments like bonds and annuities, and other strategies often labeled as stable income; how each performs in various market environments, the risks you may not see, and what every retiree or income-focused investor should consider. Lance and Jon also address the #1 Thing that homeowners regret about their houses, and a special "Two Dad's on Money" episode about whether your college grad kid should move back in with Mom & Dad. SEG-1: Retail Sales Preview, Where Market Risk Remains SEG-2: Are Dividend Stocks "Stable" or Fixed? SEG-3a: How to Calculate (and understand) Dividend Risk SEG-3b: Homeowners' #1 Remorse SEG-4: Two Dad's on Money - Should Your College Grad Move Back Home? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV5Oepv5zPM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Articles mention in this show: "The Bull Rally Continues" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-bull-rally-continues/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Where Downside Risk Remains," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIyoblbtIdg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Shock Global Markets," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3v0Xj2_iJ8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PensionFund #DownsideRisk #BullishMarkets #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #GeopoliticalRisk #FixedIncome #StableIncome #RetirementPlanning #IncomeInvesting #FinancialEducation #MarketVolatility #IranIsraelConflict #TwoDadsOnMoney #CollegeGrads #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-17-25 Where Downside Risk Remains

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2025 4:49

Markets rallied a bit on Monday, despite the turmoil in the Middle East. Retail investors bought heavily into the dip. Futures this morning are slightly depressed. Oil prices fell, stock prices rose, and really, nothing has changed. Bulls are still trying to drive the market higher, but struggling to do so; momentum is beginning to slow. A bit of perspective: Markets finished the first quarter, and then fell sharply in April, followed by the current upward thrust that has continued through the second quarter. This has gotten pension funds off-sides, a situation that must be corrected before the end of the month: Therein lies the downside risk to markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIyoblbtIdg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PensionFund #DownsideRisk #BullishMarkets #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

6-16-25 How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Shock Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2025 46:02

Lance Roberts breaks down the latest developments in the Iran-Israel conflict and what they mean for global markets, oil prices, and investor sentiment. With tensions rising in the Middle East, we explore how geopolitical risk is shaping the outlook for the S&P 500, energy stocks, safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries. Lance touches on the impact of Middle East conflicts on the stock market, how oil prices typically respond to geopolitical tension, and what sectors may benefit or suffer from the crisis. Lanec also addresses investor strategies during geopolitical uncertainty, with a look at historical market reactions to major conflicts. SEG-1: Iran-Israel - What's the next Catalyst? SEG-2: Market Effects of Iran-Israel Conflict SEG-3: Bifurcated Investing by Political Persuasion SEG-4: The Return of TINA RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3v0Xj2_iJ8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mention in this show: "The Bull Rally Continues" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-bull-rally-continues/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Remain Bullish Despite Weekend Events," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMnSNn4v7Yo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is a College Degree Really Worth It?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuYNsk7T3tY ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishMarkets #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #GeopoliticalRisk #MarketVolatility #IranIsraelConflict #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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6-16-25 Markets Remain Bullish Despite Weekend Events

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2025 5:00

Markets sold off slightly on Friday on concerns over the Iran-Israel conflict, down to the 20-DMA, which has been good support for markets. Markets remain over bought, and markets started on Friday to work off some of that "overboughtedness, and this morning futures are pointing higher. Interestingly, while retail investors are fully into the markets, institutional investors have been woefully underweight equities, and have some catching up to do. As markets continue to push higher, each of the interim dips are being bought up by institutional investors, which will continue to be the case as we approach the end of this month, and the end of the quarter, the end of the reporting period for hedge funds and portfolios. We believe the next two weeks will see more buying pressure as these groups reallocate capital to bolster their portfolio performance. The US Dollar, meanwhile, has been under pressure, trying to set a double bottom in order to set up for a counter-trend rally. There's a ton of negative sentiment on the Dollar, with the short-dollar trade the most over-crowded, presently. Something will cause a shift back into the US Dollar, and create a potential rally to between $97 and $103. A stronger Dollar will attract foreign investors back into the US, with a positive effect on domestic markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMnSNn4v7Yo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishMarkets #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

6-16-25 How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Shock Global Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2025 46:03

Lance Roberts breaks down the latest developments in the Iran-Israel conflict and what they mean for global markets, oil prices, and investor sentiment. With tensions rising in the Middle East, we explore how geopolitical risk is shaping the outlook for the S&P 500, energy stocks, safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries. Lance touches on the impact of Middle East conflicts on the stock market, how oil prices typically respond to geopolitical tension, and what sectors may benefit or suffer from the crisis. Lanec also addresses investor strategies during geopolitical uncertainty, with a look at historical market reactions to major conflicts. SEG-1: Iran-Israel - What's the next Catalyst? SEG-2: Market Effects of Iran-Israel Conflict SEG-3: Bifurcated Investing by Political Persuasion SEG-4: The Return of TINA RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3v0Xj2_iJ8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mention in this show: "The Bull Rally Continues" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-bull-rally-continues/ "The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-iran-israel-conflict-and-the-likely-impact-on-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Remain Bullish Despite Weekend Events," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMnSNn4v7Yo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is a College Degree Really Worth It?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuYNsk7T3tY ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishMarkets #USDollar #IranIsraelConflict #MarketRally #GeopoliticalRisk #MarketVolatility #IranIsraelConflict #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

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War In The Middle East To Sink Stocks? | Lance Roberts

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2025 86:47

The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran has caught markets by surprise and may serve as the catalyst for the pullback Lance Roberts has been expecting.He can see the S&P losing 100+ points over the coming week from the current military action.If that happens and provided things don't escalate materially from there, in his opinion that could present an attractive opportunity to buy stocks before they seek to return to all-time highs.We discuss the odds, as well as the latest oil, inflation and jobs data, as well as Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#iranisraelwar #investing #stocks _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

6-12-25 Inflation Cools