Podcast appearances and mentions of lance roberts

Gold's rally has investors shouting “dollar debasement!” — but is the narrative real, or just a speculative illusion? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the popular debasement argument and expose the facts behind the gold surge. From money supply trends to Fed policy and global confidence in the U.S. dollar, we separate the data from the hype. 0:19 - Stresses Emerging in Lower End of Economy 4:45 - The Oil Price Pop 6:35 -Good News - Bads News on Wall Street 10:38 -CPI Preview Despite Government Furlough 15:32 - Bond Market Expectations for Economic Growth 17:58 - The Challenge of Managing Money for the Future 20:11 - Wall Street is Selling 5x Leverage 24:47 - Liquidity is Showing Signs of Drying Up 26:42 - Debasement is Not a Room in Your House 29:42 - Where Does Money Come From? 30:45 - The Rise in Money Supply M-2 34:46 - The Loss of Confidence in the Dollar 40:00 - Central Banks are Hoarding Gold Reserves 46:21 - People Find Bubbles in Everything 48:15 - YouTube Chat - Banks Are Dumping Treasuries( ?) 49:28 - Is the Dollar Set to Strengthen? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Dollar Debasement: Reality Or A Dangerous Narrative?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/dollar-debasement-reality-or-a-dangerous-narrative/ -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HNCz8Ogzxc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Russia Sanctions Ignite Oil Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7DyLmRRWoQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Teaching Kids About Money: Lessons From Investing's Biggest Mistakes," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXyQMURvV40&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilRally #EnergyStocks #RussiaSanctions #MarketUpdate #PreMarket #DollarDebasement #GoldInvesting #MarketAnalysis #RealInvestmentAdvice

Oil prices are surging after new sanctions on Russia sparked a wave of buying in the energy sector. After weeks of being oversold, crude is bouncing back — and energy stocks are following. In this quick pre-market update, we'll cover: Why new Russia sanctions are driving oil prices higher. The fresh MACD buy signal flashing for energy stocks. Key support levels at the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The widening gap between large-cap resilience and small-cap weakness. Why managing portfolio risk exposure matters more than ever. Stay tuned for the day's market setup — and subscribe for daily insights before the bell. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7DyLmRRWoQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilRally #EnergyStocks #RussiaSanctions #MarketUpdate #PreMarket

Gold's rally has investors shouting “dollar debasement!” — but is the narrative real, or just a speculative illusion? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the popular debasement argument and expose the facts behind the gold surge. From money supply trends to Fed policy and global confidence in the U.S. dollar, we separate the data from the hype. 0:19 - Stresses Emerging in Lower End of Economy 4:45 - The Oil Price Pop 6:35 -Good News - Bads News on Wall Street 10:38 -CPI Preview Despite Government Furlough 15:32 - Bond Market Expectations for Economic Growth 17:58 - The Challenge of Managing Money for the Future 20:11 - Wall Street is Selling 5x Leverage 24:47 - Liquidity is Showing Signs of Drying Up 26:42 - Debasement is Not a Room in Your House 29:42 - Where Does Money Come From? 30:45 - The Rise in Money Supply M-2 34:46 - The Loss of Confidence in the Dollar  40:00 - Central Banks are Hoarding Gold Reserves 46:21 - People Find Bubbles in Everything 48:15 - YouTube Chat - Banks Are Dumping Treasuries( ?) 49:28 - Is the Dollar Set to Strengthen? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Dollar Debasement: Reality Or A Dangerous Narrative?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/dollar-debasement-reality-or-a-dangerous-narrative/ -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HNCz8Ogzxc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Russia Sanctions Ignite Oil Rally," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7DyLmRRWoQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our Previous Show, "Teaching Kids About Money: Lessons From Investing's Biggest Mistakes," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXyQMURvV40&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilRally #EnergyStocks #RussiaSanctions #MarketUpdate #PreMarket #DollarDebasement #GoldInvesting #MarketAnalysis #RealInvestmentAdvice

How do we raise the next generation to be financially wise in a world obsessed with “getting rich quick”? In this episode, Lance Roberts sits down with financial writer Benjamin Gran to discuss the right way to teach children about money, work, and investing. From saving before investing, to understanding the true value of work, and avoiding the pitfalls of speculative frenzies — we cover everything from Enron and Kozmo.com to the meme-stock craze and the AI hype cycle on Wall Street. Benjamin and Lance break down how to build long-term investing habits that last, why risk management and time horizons matter more than “hot tips,” and how classic investing wisdom from John Bogle, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger still applies today. You'll also hear how parents can instill financial literacy and responsibility early — through chores, jobs, and saving — not just allowances and apps. The real secret? Teaching kids that saving money feels as good as spending it, and that success is built on work ethic, patience, and purpose.

Cash value life insurance often sparks debate — is it a smart financial tool or an expensive way to mix insurance with investing? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down how cash value life insurance actually works and where it may (or may not) fit into your overall financial picture. 0:18 - Preview - Life Insurance & BYOB, Earnings Season Continues 6:00 - Markets Confirm Bullish Trend 10:55 - Private Credit Fund Warning - Subprime Credit Danger 18:22 - Whole Life Insurance Explained 19:51 - Whole Life vs Term, ULI, VUL 22:54 - Why Dave Ramsey is Wrong About Insurance 23:44 - The Math - Term vs Whole Life 25:51 - Why You Need Insurance 29:16 - Overfunding Strategies & Be Your Own Bank 32:49 - Whole Life vs Term (again) 37:59 - Beware Blanket Statements - Do the Research 39:28 - MEC - Modified Endowment Contracts 41:13 - When the Life Insurance Runs Out 43:02 - Converting Term to Whole Life 46:01 - Comming Attractions Whether you're building wealth, protecting your family, or planning for retirement, understanding this strategy can help you make smarter financial decisions.

Markets climbed above key moving averages on Monday, retesting the 50-DMA three times before pushing higher. The NASDAQ's QQQ hit new all-time highs as tech led the rally, while the S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) lagged—showing how narrow the market's leadership has become. The “buy-the-dip” mentality continues to dominate, delivering the best returns in 33 years. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is trending higher, bond yields are sliding below 4%, and foreign investors are returning to U.S. markets. With the MACD close to turning back to a “buy,” a new market high could confirm the bullish trend.

Cash value life insurance often sparks debate — is it a smart financial tool or an expensive way to mix insurance with investing? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down how cash value life insurance actually works and where it may (or may not) fit into your overall financial picture. 0:18 - Preview - Life Insurance & BYOB, Earnings Season Continues 6:00 - Markets Confirm Bullish Trend 10:55 - Private Credit Fund Warning - Subprime Credit Danger 18:22 - Whole Life Insurance Explained 19:51 - Whole Life vs Term, ULI, VUL 22:54 - Why Dave Ramsey is Wrong About Insurance 23:44 - The Math - Term vs Whole Life 25:51 - Why You Need Insurance 29:16 - Overfunding Strategies & Be Your Own Bank 32:49 - Whole Life vs Term (again) 37:59 - Beware Blanket Statements - Do the Research 39:28 - MEC - Modified Endowment Contracts 41:13 - When the Life Insurance Runs Out 43:02 - Converting Term to Whole Life 46:01 - Comming Attractions Whether you're building wealth, protecting your family, or planning for retirement, understanding this strategy can help you make smarter financial decisions.

Invest like a bull. Think like a bear. Lance Roberts dives into the mindset of successful investors: staying bullish on opportunity, but thinking like a bear when it comes to risk. Learn how to stay optimistic without losing discipline, why emotional control outperforms market hype, and how blending bullish conviction with bearish caution can help you thrive through any cycle. * How to stay invested while protecting capital * Recognizing when optimism turns into speculation * Lessons from past market booms and busts * Why risk management is the true edge in investing

Markets spent last week trapped in a tight range between the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The 20-DMA, which had served as support for weeks, has now flipped into resistance. Futures are pointing higher this morning, suggesting traders are positioning for a potential breakout — but confirmation will depend on whether markets can close and hold above the 20-DMA this week. If that level fails, expect renewed pressure on the 50-DMA, where a cluster of stop-losses could trigger a deeper pullback. Earnings will be the dominant catalyst — strong results and upbeat forward guidance could provide the lift bulls need to reclaim momentum. ⚠️ Key Takeaways: 20-DMA resistance, 50-DMA support — critical inflection point Earnings results will likely dictate direction Keep stop-losses tight and avoid over-reacting to short-term noise Overall trend remains bullish — for now Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: http://bit.ly/4qldYN8  ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingNews #StockMarketUpdate #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketMomentum #InvestingInsights #PreMarketReport

Invest like a bull. Think like a bear. Lance Roberts dives into the mindset of successful investors: staying bullish on opportunity, but thinking like a bear when it comes to risk. Learn how to stay optimistic without losing discipline, why emotional control outperforms market hype, and how blending bullish conviction with bearish caution can help you thrive through any cycle. * How to stay invested while protecting capital  * Recognizing when optimism turns into speculation * Lessons from past market booms and busts * Why risk management is the true edge in investing

Well, this week certainly was not a dull one.It saw growing fears of credit contagion from "cockroach" corporations as the fallout from TriColor and First Brands now spreads to regional banks.The President whipsawed markets with a "yes, we are/no, we aren't" barrage of tweets on a trade war with China.Bitcoin and the crypto complex took their lumps, while the precious metals skyrocketed to all-time highs.Is the heightened uncertainty reason to sell? Or a buying opportunity?For everything that mattered to market this week, watch this Market Recap.BUY THE REPLAY OF THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#goldprice #creditspreads #debtdefault _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

What makes capitalism the most successful wealth-building system in history? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore how economic freedom, private ownership, and innovation incentives have lifted billions out of poverty and created unmatched prosperity. Why do societies that embrace free markets and entrepreneurship tend to enjoy higher standards of living, longer lifespans, and greater personal happiness? Lance & Michael examine the misconceptions surrounding capitalism—why critics often overlook the power of voluntary exchange and how wealth creation benefits everyone over time. 0:19 - Earnings Season is Underway w 75% Beat Rates 4:49 - Markets Maintain Bullish Trend w Lackluster Conviction 8:23 - The Itch to Twitch w Royalty-free Music 10:04 - The Fed Moves Forward - Net Impact to Bond Market 13:58 - There is No More Liquidity - Effects in Crypto Realm 17:03 - The Danger of Buying Crypto on Margin 19:57 - Leverage Works Worse in Reverse 24:04 - When the Markets Break 29:59 - Capitalism vs Socialism - the path to prosperity 31:49 - Quantifying Capitalism - The Economic Freedom Index 35:22 - Capitalism is Not an Equalization System 38:23 - The Global Decline of Economic Freedom 39:32 - Does Wealth Buy Happiness? 40:58 - Defining the "American Dream" 43:16 - Why Businesses Fail 44:51 - The Savanna Bananas 46:57 - Capitalism Is Not Fair

What makes capitalism the most successful wealth-building system in history?  Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore how economic freedom, private ownership, and innovation incentives have lifted billions out of poverty and created unmatched prosperity. Why do societies that embrace free markets and entrepreneurship tend to enjoy higher standards of living, longer lifespans, and greater personal happiness? Lance & Michael examine the misconceptions surrounding capitalism—why critics often overlook the power of voluntary exchange and how wealth creation benefits everyone over time. 0:19 - Earnings Season is Underway w 75% Beat Rates 4:49 - Markets Maintain Bullish Trend w Lackluster Conviction 8:23 - The Itch to Twitch w Royalty-free Music 10:04 - The Fed Moves Forward - Net Impact to Bond Market 13:58 - There is No More Liquidity - Effects in Crypto Realm 17:03 - The Danger of Buying Crypto on Margin 19:57 - Leverage Works Worse in Reverse 24:04 - When the Markets Break 29:59 - Capitalism vs Socialism - the path to prosperity 31:49 - Quantifying Capitalism - The Economic Freedom Index 35:22 - Capitalism is Not an Equalization System 38:23 - The Global Decline of Economic Freedom 39:32 - Does Wealth Buy Happiness? 40:58 - Defining the "American Dream" 43:16 - Why Businesses Fail 44:51 - The Savanna Bananas 46:57 - Capitalism Is Not Fair

After a volatile session, markets managed to reclaim the 20-day moving average — but barely. Weak volume and narrow participation suggest the move lacked conviction. While futures are pointing higher this morning, recent trading patterns have shown early gains often fade quickly. The good news: the market has worked off much of its overbought condition. The bad news: momentum remains weak, and we're still on a MACD sell signal. Until that reverses, risk stays elevated. In today's pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down:

“Everything's doing great” as we head into a traditionally strong part of the year, Lance Roberts argues. “The outlook's good for stocks right now,” he adds, but cautions investors not to let go of risk management strategies. He thinks we will see a sharp correction before the end of the year but encourages investors to buy the dip and thinks we'll end the year higher. He likes Meta Platforms (META), Applied Digital (APLD), and Vertiv (VRT).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just hinted that the Fed may soon pause its balance-sheet runoff — a potential shift that could reshape market liquidity and investor sentiment. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down: * Why the Fed may pause QT — and what it signals about financial conditions. * How ending balance-sheet runoff affects liquidity, yields, and asset prices. * What history tells us about QT pauses and subsequent market rallies. * Why the Fed's portfolio composition (Treasuries vs. MBS) still matters for inflation and housing. * Portfolio tactics if the liquidity tide begins to turn. 0:19 - Markets' Rally on Powell QT Comments 4:16 - Speculation Continues on Wall St 8:40 - Childhood Bedtimes & Digital Devices 14:36 Is Quantitative Tightening About to End? 16:55 - What is the Result of Easing QT? 19:37 - Where's the Risk: Private Credit/Equity 21:12 - The Fed's Moral Hazard & History of Bailouts 26:01 - How Would a Failure of FNMA Loans Affect the Economy? 28:34 - What Led to the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis 32:13 - The Bigger Risk of Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Deals 35:45 - The Last Stages of Asset Development 40:11 - IRS Rules Changes for Roths 45:12 - Comming Attractions Whether the Fed is stabilizing the system or setting up the next round of excess — it's a key inflection point investors can't ignore.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just hinted that the Fed may soon pause its balance-sheet runoff — a potential shift that could reshape market liquidity and investor sentiment. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down: * Why the Fed may pause QT — and what it signals about financial conditions. * How ending balance-sheet runoff affects liquidity, yields, and asset prices. * What history tells us about QT pauses and subsequent market rallies. * Why the Fed's portfolio composition (Treasuries vs. MBS) still matters for inflation and housing. * Portfolio tactics if the liquidity tide begins to turn. 0:19 - Markets' Rally on Powell QT Comments 4:16 - Speculation Continues on Wall St 8:40 - Childhood Bedtimes & Digital Devices 14:36 Is Quantitative Tightening About to End? 16:55 - What is the Result of Easing QT? 19:37 - Where's the Risk: Private Credit/Equity 21:12 - The Fed's Moral Hazard & History of Bailouts 26:01 - How Would a Failure of FNMA Loans Affect the Economy? 28:34 - What Led to the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis 32:13 - The Bigger Risk of Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Deals 35:45 - The Last Stages of Asset Development 40:11 - IRS Rules Changes for Roths 45:12 - Comming Attractions   Whether the Fed is stabilizing the system or setting up the next round of excess — it's a key inflection point investors can't ignore.

Are annuities the safe retirement solution they're sold as — or a financial trap in disguise? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn unpack the good, the bad, and the ugly sides of annuities. 10:03 - Kitchen Sets & Intramural Flag Football 14:52 - Annuities - Good, Bad, & Ugly 18:08 - What is an Annuity? 20:16 - Different Flavors of Annuities 22:07 - The Ugly Truth About Early Surrender Fees 27:29 - Why Might You Need an Annuity? 31:20 - Three Reasons You'd Need an Annuity 34:36 - Annuities Should Be Planned, not Sold 38:14 - Why Buy an Annuity Instead of Investing in the Market? 41:00 - One More Reason... 43:25 - Are There Inflation-adjusted Annuities? 47:05 - Are Annuities Divorce-proof? 48:59 - Lance's Marriage Advice 49:52 - Tax Deferral Options 51:59 - More Marriage Advice - His & Her Money Whether you're considering a fixed, variable, or indexed annuity, this episode will help you separate sales pitch from sound strategy — so you can decide if annuities deserve a place in your portfolio.

Are markets completely disconnected from economic reality? In this exclusive conversation, Lance Roberts of RIA Advisors sits down with Daniel LaCalle, Chief Economist at Tressis and author of Freedom or Equality, to examine the illusion of wealth, sovereign-debt bubbles, and why the next global crisis may already be forming beneath the surface.

Markets are at a turning point after Friday's dip to the 50-day moving average and Monday's rebound. But with futures pointing lower, investors are asking: will this rally hold—or fold? In today's pre-market briefing:

Are annuities the safe retirement solution they're sold as — or a financial trap in disguise? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn unpack the good, the bad, and the ugly sides of annuities.  10:03 - Kitchen Sets & Intramural Flag Football 14:52 - Annuities - Good, Bad, & Ugly 18:08 - What is an Annuity? 20:16 - Different Flavors of Annuities 22:07 - The Ugly Truth About Early Surrender Fees 27:29 - Why Might You Need an Annuity? 31:20 - Three Reasons You'd Need an Annuity 34:36 - Annuities Should Be Planned, not Sold 38:14 - Why Buy an Annuity Instead of Investing in the Market? 41:00 - One More Reason... 43:25 - Are There Inflation-adjusted Annuities? 47:05 - Are Annuities Divorce-proof? 48:59 - Lance's Marriage Advice 49:52 - Tax Deferral Options 51:59 - More Marriage Advice - His & Her Money   Whether you're considering a fixed, variable, or indexed annuity, this episode will help you separate sales pitch from sound strategy — so you can decide if annuities deserve a place in your portfolio.

Are markets completely disconnected from economic reality? In this exclusive conversation, Lance Roberts of RIA Advisors sits down with Daniel LaCalle, Chief Economist at Tressis and author of Freedom or Equality, to examine the illusion of wealth, sovereign-debt bubbles, and why the next global crisis may already be forming beneath the surface.

A recession usually means falling inflation and lower bond yields — good news for bond investors. But what if this time is different? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how the next recession could flip the bond trade from bullish to bearish — and why government policy and fiscal stimulus may once again distort the relationship between inflation, yields, and bond prices. 0:19 - US Dollar Impact on Multi-national Companies 3:32 - Expectations for Market Reversal 9:45 - The AI Chase & Circular Money Flow 13:17 - Investments are Based on Hopeful Future Demand 16:28 - The Question of The How & The When 19:12 - The Nvidia - AMD - OpenAI Conundrum 20:07 - Natural Gas is the Only Answer for next 5-years 22:02 - Markets Are Chasing Whatever Goes Up 24:24 - The Lesson for Diversifying 26:15 - Do Bonds Protect Investors in the Next Recession? 32:18 - Preview of Daniel LaCalle Interview 35:38 - Gold is Fueling Dollar Debasement 39:43 - All Asset Classes will Reverse Eventually 43:33 - Is This Time Different? 50:06 - Coming Attractions

A recession usually means falling inflation and lower bond yields — good news for bond investors. But what if this time is different? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how the next recession could flip the bond trade from bullish to bearish — and why government policy and fiscal stimulus may once again distort the relationship between inflation, yields, and bond prices. 0:19 - US Dollar Impact on Multi-national Companies 3:32 - Expectations for Market Reversal 9:45 - The AI Chase & Circular Money Flow 13:17 - Investments are Based on Hopeful Future Demand  16:28 - The Question of The How & The When 19:12 - The Nvidia - AMD - OpenAI Conundrum 20:07 - Natural Gas is the Only Answer for next 5-years 22:02 - Markets Are Chasing Whatever Goes Up 24:24 - The Lesson for Diversifying 26:15 - Do Bonds Protect Investors in the Next Recession? 32:18 - Preview of Daniel LaCalle Interview 35:38 - Gold is Fueling Dollar Debasement 39:43 - All Asset Classes will Reverse Eventually 43:33 - Is This Time Different? 50:06 - Coming Attractions

Markets continue to push higher as optimism remains strong, fueled by massive corporate share buybacks and record retail inflows. Since April, liquidity has been the lifeblood of this rally — but beneath the surface, the setup is increasingly fragile. The MACD has been flat for weeks, volatility remains near historic lows, and options positioning shows a large negative delta. That combination can unwind quickly if the 20-DMA gives way. A simple 5% correction could feel twice as painful after months of calm. In today's pre-market video, we discuss: Why money flows and buybacks are propping up markets The warning signs of fragility beneath the surface What a 20-DMA break could mean for risk assets Simple portfolio tactics to manage exposure before volatility returns

Join Lance Roberts for a live open Q&A on markets, money, and investing. We'll cover what's on your mind—from market melt-ups and Fed policy to portfolio positioning and economic risks. No scripts, no fluff—just real talk and real answers about what's moving markets and shaping investor behavior. 0:19 - Markets are Absorbing Money 4:14 - Profit Taking in Bitcoin 9:15 - YouTube Poll - The #1 Thing on Your Mind About Markets 10:09 - How Do You Invest Right Now? 12:23 - Liquidity is King 18:05 - You WILL Mind a 5% Down Market 20:39 - #1 Concern - Liquidity in Markets 27:37 - The Problem w Markets is Narratives 29:34 - Economic Data Not Dramatically Changing 33:06 - The AI Story, Tesla Robots, & Productivity 35:48 - Employees Are Not Fun 39:32 - Coming Attractions - Daniel LaCalle Interview

Join Lance Roberts for a live open Q&A on markets, money, and investing. We'll cover what's on your mind—from market melt-ups and Fed policy to portfolio positioning and economic risks. No scripts, no fluff—just real talk and real answers about what's moving markets and shaping investor behavior. 0:19 - Markets are Absorbing Money 4:14 - Profit Taking in Bitcoin 9:15 - YouTube Poll - The #1 Thing on Your Mind About Markets 10:09 - How Do You Invest Right Now?  12:23 - Liquidity is King 18:05 - You WILL Mind a 5% Down Market 20:39 - #1 Concern - Liquidity in Markets 27:37 - The Problem w Markets is Narratives 29:34 - Economic Data Not Dramatically Changing 33:06 - The AI Story, Tesla Robots, & Productivity 35:48 - Employees Are Not Fun 39:32 - Coming Attractions - Daniel LaCalle Interview

Markets were slightly lower on Tuesday, but small caps and Bitcoin saw sharper declines as investors took profits. After notching new highs, Bitcoin is now forming a potential series of tops — and what happens next could determine whether this rally continues or a correction unfolds. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar is quietly breaking out of its consolidation range to the upside. A stronger Dollar typically pressures risk assets, from emerging markets to commodities and crypto. The question now: Is this just a one-day pullback—or the start of a broader shift? In this pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down: Why Bitcoin's pattern may be signaling a near-term turning point. How the Dollar's breakout could reshape global asset performance. What the small-cap selloff says about investor sentiment and liquidity.

In your 30s, 40s, or 50s, life gets busy—and money decisions get complicated. Many professionals fall into the same midlife financial traps that quietly erode their future wealth. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn unpack seven common midlife money mistakes that can derail your long-term goals—from lifestyle creep and poor diversification to credit card debt and get-rich-quick schemes. Learn how to stay focused, protect your growing assets, and build financial independence while managing the real pressures of midlife. 0:19 - Taco Tuesday & Gov't. Shutdown Day-7 4:23 - Is the Rising Trend Line About to End? 10:53 -Mid-life Crises & Dealing w Debt 17:31 - Christina's Amazon Budget & Nutcracker Fetish 19:40 - Mission Creep & Budget Leakage 24:20 - The Danger of Using Credit Cards for Points 29:09 - Hard Money Lending & Usury 32:51 - Trade Your Way to Wealth & Other Get-rich-quick schemes 36:06 - Inflation's Effects on Purchasing Power 37:58 - Markets Can Make You Appear Smarter than You Are 39:06 - Get Debt Free 41:17 - Why You Should Never, Ever, Never, Ever Borrow from Your 401k 47:15 - The Truth About Bankruptcy 49:09 - Coming Attractions

In your 30s, 40s, or 50s, life gets busy—and money decisions get complicated. Many professionals fall into the same midlife financial traps that quietly erode their future wealth. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn unpack seven common midlife money mistakes that can derail your long-term goals—from lifestyle creep and poor diversification to credit card debt and get-rich-quick schemes. Learn how to stay focused, protect your growing assets, and build financial independence while managing the real pressures of midlife. 0:19 - Taco Tuesday & Gov't. Shutdown Day-7 4:23 - Is the Rising Trend Line About to End? 10:53 -Mid-life Crises & Dealing w Debt 17:31 - Christina's Amazon Budget & Nutcracker Fetish  19:40 - Mission Creep & Budget Leakage 24:20 - The Danger of Using Credit Cards for Points 29:09 - Hard Money Lending & Usury 32:51 - Trade Your Way to Wealth & Other Get-rich-quick schemes 36:06 - Inflation's Effects on Purchasing Power 37:58 - Markets Can Make You Appear Smarter than You Are 39:06 - Get Debt Free 41:17 - Why You Should Never, Ever, Never, Ever Borrow from Your 401k 47:15 - The Truth About Bankruptcy 49:09 - Coming Attractions

Markets hit new all-time highs Monday, closing up roughly 40 basis points, and futures point higher again this morning. But beneath the surface, extreme deviations above the 200-day moving average are forming—a setup that rarely lasts. In this short video, Lance Roberts explains why markets stretched this far above long-term averages eventually correct, how those drawdowns affect investors both financially and psychologically, and why low-quality, no-income stocks are suddenly leading the rally.

Investors often believe that when markets “recover,” their portfolios do too — but that's a dangerous illusion. In this episode, Lance Roberts breaks down why percentage losses and gains are not symmetrical, and how a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. We'll discuss why bear market math destroys long-term returns, how emotional investors get trapped in the “illusion of recovery,” and why managing risk during drawdowns matters more than chasing every rally. 0:19 - The First Full Trading Week of October - Action 4:11 - Markets - Overbought & Overconfident? 9:27 - Where is the Promised Recession? 12:06 - What is Supporting the Market? 15:53 - The Overall Liquidity Base is Still Flush 19:19 - Annual vs Intra-year Returns Comparison 22:18 - Understanding Losses in Bear Markets - not symmetrical 27:02 - The Math of Loss 29:32 - The Importance of Understanding the Difference Between Points & Percentages 33:49 - Why Markets Do Not Compound 34:19 - The Function of Time on Investments 39:26 - Six Strategies That Work When Markets Don't 46:48 - Preview: Trading Guide Rules from Master Investors

Markets flirted with all-time highs again on Friday, but the speculative fever is spreading fast. From overbought gold and rising volatility to widening gaps between prices and moving averages, signs of investor overconfidence are everywhere. In this pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down: Why speculation is building across stocks, gold, and global markets The growing disconnect between market prices and fundamentals What rising VIX volatility and overbought gold could signal How momentum and sentiment extremes can lead to sharp corrections

Investors often believe that when markets “recover,” their portfolios do too — but that's a dangerous illusion. In this episode, Lance Roberts breaks down why percentage losses and gains are not symmetrical, and how a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. We'll discuss why bear market math destroys long-term returns, how emotional investors get trapped in the “illusion of recovery,” and why managing risk during drawdowns matters more than chasing every rally. 0:19 - The First Full Trading Week of October - Action 4:11 - Markets - Overbought & Overconfident? 9:27 - Where is the Promised Recession? 12:06 - What is Supporting the Market?  15:53 - The Overall Liquidity Base is Still Flush 19:19 - Annual vs Intra-year Returns Comparison 22:18 - Understanding Losses in Bear Markets - not symmetrical 27:02 - The Math of Loss 29:32 - The Importance of Understanding the Difference Between Points & Percentages 33:49 - Why Markets Do Not Compound 34:19 - The Function of Time on Investments 39:26 - Six Strategies That Work When Markets Don't 46:48 - Preview: Trading Guide Rules from Master Investors

At this point, the stock market is being driven nearly entirely by sentiment and momentum.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the odds are good that will continue as the allure of S&P 7,000 entices investors to keep buying dips through the remainder of the year.He and I discuss the technical reasons for this, as well as the impact of the government shutdown, the latest disappointing ADP jobs report, bonds and Lance's firm's recent trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.TIME'S NEARLY UP! LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#bullmarket #jobsreport #shutdown _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The government shutdown has silenced the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving investors without the monthly jobs report. But does Wall Street really need the BLS to keep moving? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore what happens when government labor data goes missing, how traders adapt, and what alternative indicators might offer clues about the state of the economy. Lance and Mike also examine valuation metrics in the markets, and discuss claims that interest rates are still too high. Can the "AI Effect" sustaining markets and the economy continue into 2026? 0:19 - What the Economic Surprise Index is Saying 4:29 - Markets Hit All-time High. Again. 9:30 - When P/E Ratios are Elevated 12:25 - 1999 Valuations vs Now 13:52 - Is the AI Excitement Worth It? 17:47 - The Risk of Disappointment 21:57 - Government Shutdown Ramifications 24:03 - BLS vs ADP 27:31 - What JOLTS & IRS Data is Telling Us 33:44 - Stephen Miran - Are Rates Too High? 35:38 - The Fallacy of CPI 37:37 - Immigration Impact on Economic Growth 39:00 - The Natural Rate of Interest 41:26 - The Taylor Rule Explained 45:17 - Will AI Spending Be Able to Continue into 2026? 46:58 - The Resilience of the Market

Markets reached new all-time highs Wednesday, once again bouncing off the 20-day moving average. Since April, each test of the 20-DMA has sparked fresh rallies, while volatility remains tightly compressed. With October seasonality often providing tailwinds, investors are asking: is the market set up for a strong year-end run? In today's pre-market update, we cover: Why markets keep holding the 20-DMA trendline The impact of October volatility and average returns Healthcare strength broadening gains beyond AI How a pullback could set up November's rally Why early December may bring some profit-taking Will October tailwinds carry the market higher, or is a pullback first on the horizon? Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItZKs7kgaEU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketUpdate #InvestingNews #AllTimeHighs #YearEndRally #Investing #SP500 #MarketOutlook #Finance #InvestingAdvice #Money    

The government shutdown has silenced the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving investors without the monthly jobs report. But does Wall Street really need the BLS to keep moving? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore what happens when government labor data goes missing, how traders adapt, and what alternative indicators might offer clues about the state of the economy. Lance and Mike also examine valuation metrics in the markets, and discuss claims that interest rates are still too high. Can the "AI Effect" sustaining markets and the economy continue into 2026? 0:19 - What the Economic Surprise Index is Saying 4:29 - Markets Hit All-time High. Again. 9:30 - When P/E Ratios are Elevated 12:25 - 1999 Valuations vs Now 13:52 - Is the AI Excitement Worth It? 17:47 - The Risk of Disappointment 21:57 - Government Shutdown Ramifications 24:03 - BLS vs ADP 27:31 - What JOLTS & IRS Data is Telling Us 33:44 - Stephen Miran - Are Rates Too High? 35:38 - The Fallacy of CPI 37:37 - Immigration Impact on Economic Growth 39:00 - The Natural Rate of Interest 41:26 - The Taylor Rule Explained 45:17 - Will AI Spending Be Able to Continue into 2026? 46:58 - The Resilience of the Market

Dinesh D'Souza- January 6th, 2021 Looks Different Now. - Mike Maloney- Silver Is About to Explode — Here's Why I'm Buying Now   January 6th, 2021 Looks Different Now https://youtu.be/LlrrgE8_Xc4?si=MY45wEFsXVBjp5Ah Dinesh D'Souza 799K subscribers Sep 30, 2025 The Dinesh D'Souza Podcast January 6 looks different now — and those who doubted the original story are vindicated once again. My new film "The Dragon's Prophecy" opens in select theaters Monday Oct. 6 and Wednesday Oct. 8. Streaming and DVD starts Thursday Oct. 9. Get movie tickets and pre-order steaming and DVDs at TheDragonsProphecyFilm.com — Dinesh D'Souza is an author and filmmaker. A graduate of Dartmouth College, he was a senior domestic policy analyst in the Reagan administration. He also served as a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is the author of many bestselling books, including "Illiberal Education," "What's So Great About Christianity," "America: Imagine a World Without Her," "The Roots of Obama's Rage," "Death of a Nation," and "United States of Socialism." His documentary films "2016: Obama's America," "America," "Hillary's America," "Death of a Nation," and "Trump Card" are among the highest-grossing political documentaries of all time. He and his wife Debbie are also executive producers of the acclaimed feature film "Infidel." — Want to connect with Dinesh D'Souza online for more hard-hitting analysis of current events in America? Here's how: Get Dinesh unfiltered, uncensored and unchained on Locals: https://dinesh.locals.com/ Facebook:   / dsouzadinesh   Twitter:   / dineshdsouza   Rumble: https://rumble.com/dineshdsouza Instagram:   / dineshjdsouza   Parler: https://parler.com/user/DineshDSouza GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/dineshdsouza Email: https://dineshdsouza.com/contact-us/         Silver Is About to Explode — Here's Why I'm Buying Now - Mike Maloney Why I'm Buying Silver RIGHT NOW — and Why You Should Watch This Move Silver is making a dramatic run. As of this writing, it's within a few dollars of historic all-time highs — and technicals, fundamentals, and supply pressures are lining up to suggest much higher potential ahead. In this update, Mike Maloney walks us through: The long-term “cup & handle” patterns and multi-timeframe breakouts How silver is outperforming both gold and the stock market The alarming drain in global free inventories and what that means for future price gaps Why the broader public has barely noticed — yet Watch this video at- https://youtu.be/kZDOaEhjMxo?si=AP0cpPe7B769TZ2O GoldSilver 843K subscribers 76,873 views Sep 29, 2025 PART 2 HERE:    • Silver Is the Bargain — Gold/Silver Ratio ...   Get Mike Maloney's 1st book for free here: http://www.GoldSilver.com/freebook ----------------------------------------------------------------- GoldSilver is one of the most trusted names in precious metals. Since 2005, we've provided investors with both education and world-class bullion dealer services. We offer a wide selection of bullion products, private vault storage, global shipping, and easy payment choices. Buy Precious Metals at: https://www.goldsilver.com Get Free content from Mike's new book here: http://www.ggsr21.com Subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/goldsilver?... Get Essential Gold & Silver News—Delivered Twice a Week: https://goldsilver.com/join-our-newsl... Follow Mike on Twitter:   / goldsilver_com   Follow us on Facebook:   / goldsilverdotcom   Check out our sister channel Wealthion @Wealthion featuring regular guests such as Jim Rickards, Rick Rule, Stephanie Pomboy, Lance Roberts, John Hathaway, Alisdair McLeod, Simon Hunt, John Rubino, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and more. As always, thank you for your support. M. Silver Is the Bargain — Gold/Silver Ratio Could Be 20 - Mike Maloney https://youtu.be/GbBl1rwNcoo?si=1zyjcfCixnq23Voc GoldSilver 843K subscribers 63,309 views Sep 29, 2025 LINK TO PART 1:    • Silver Is About to Explode — Here's Why I'...   Get Mike Maloney's 1st book for free here: http://www.GoldSilver.com/freebook In this video, Mike Maloney dives deep into the Gold-Silver Ratio vs Price, revealing why he considers silver to be one of the most undervalued assets in the market today. ▶️ Watch as he: • Compares the mining supply ratio (≈ 7:1) to the trading ratio (≈ 85:1) • Explains how silver's industrial usage erodes its available stock • Reviews historical ratio trends and why he expects a collapse toward 20:1 (or less) • Lays out how converting silver into gold at key ratio thresholds can multiply your gold holdings

The U.S. government shutdown has officially started. What does this mean for the economy, markets, and your investments? Lance Roberts covers the immediate fallout from the shutdown on federal spending, workers, and services ; how markets have historically reacted during shutdowns—and what to expect this time; the risk to GDP, delayed economic data releases, and consumer confidence. This shutdown is more than politics—it's a real test for the economy and financial markets. Stay informed and prepared. [*NOTE: YouTube sustained severe streaming issues during this morning's live feed. This is a separate recording of the show.]

The U.S. government shutdown has officially started. What does this mean for the economy, markets, and your investments? Lance Roberts covers the immediate fallout from the shutdown on federal spending, workers, and services ; how markets have historically reacted during shutdowns—and what to expect this time; the risk to GDP, delayed economic data releases, and consumer confidence. This shutdown is more than politics—it's a real test for the economy and financial markets. Stay informed and prepared. [*NOTE: YouTube sustained severe streaming issues during this morning's live feed. This is a separate recording of the show.]

October kicks off the seasonally strong six months of the year (Oct–Mar), but investors shouldn't assume smooth sailing. Historically, October averages about a 1% gain. Yet markets just notched five straight months of S&P 500 gains during the seasonally weak window, raising the odds of a short-term pullback. In this pre-market update, Lance Roberts breaks down: Why history suggests a 4–5% correction may be due. How earnings season, corporate buybacks, and fund managers playing “catch-up” could fuel year-end support. The balance between seasonal strength and the need for markets to reset. Corrections are normal and often healthy—positioning portfolios for the rally that could close out the year.

Why do we invest? The answer goes far beyond just making money. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn, Two Dads on Money, break down the most important reasons people put their money to work in the markets. Lance and Jon also show why investing is not just for Wall Street professionals—it's for everyone. Whether you're just starting out or refining your long-term strategy, this episode will give you a clear framework for why investing is essential for financial freedom and peace of mind. 0:19 - Quarter-end Rebalancing & Potential Gove't Shutdown 6:14 - Pay Attention to the US Dollar 12:49 - Why & How We Invest: Real Estate & FOMO 18:41 - Trade Like a Pro - Not a Gambler 23:27 - Dealing w Emotions as Investors 25:28 - When Life Happens - Car Batteries & Tires 31:53 - The Major Reason We Invest: Growing Savings Faster than Inflation 37:28 - Market Compounding is a Myth 38:49 - Why Money Sitting in Cash for Opportunity 41:06 - Next Week's Show Preview

The U.S. Dollar has been weak, but a long basing pattern suggests a potential reversal. What would a Dollar rally mean for global markets, corporate profits, and investor portfolios?  Lance Roberts breaks down: * Why the Dollar matters for multi-national companies and profit margins. * How CTA short positions could fuel a sharp rally. * The impact on commodities, bonds, and global capital flows. * Why a Dollar counter-trend rally could be one of the least-expected—and most market-shaking—trades right now.

Why do we invest? The answer goes far beyond just making money. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn, Two Dads on Money, break down the most important reasons people put their money to work in the markets. Lance and Jon also show why investing is not just for Wall Street professionals—it's for everyone. Whether you're just starting out or refining your long-term strategy, this episode will give you a clear framework for why investing is essential for financial freedom and peace of mind. 0:19 - Quarter-end Rebalancing & Potential Gove't Shutdown 6:14 - Pay Attention to the US Dollar 12:49 - Why & How We Invest: Real Estate & FOMO 18:41 - Trade Like a Pro - Not a Gambler 23:27 - Dealing w Emotions as Investors 25:28 - When Life Happens - Car Batteries & Tires 31:53 - The Major Reason We Invest: Growing Savings Faster than Inflation 37:28 - Market Compounding is a Myth 38:49 - Why Money Sitting in Cash for Opportunity 41:06 - Next Week's Show Preview

Lance Roberts examines one of the most reliable technical analysis tools investors use to measure market risk: the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI helps identify when markets are overbought, oversold, or diverging from price action. While RSI is not a perfect “buy or sell” signal, it is a powerful guardrail for risk management. History shows that overbought conditions can persist much longer than expected, but when momentum fades, corrections can arrive suddenly.

After a three-day selloff, is the market still on track for 7,000? Last week's decline tested the 20-DMA momentum line — a level that has held strong since April. Futures are pointing higher this morning, suggesting the bullish trend remains intact. But with the S&P 500 still 10% above its 200-DMA, the risk of a deeper correction can't be ignored. In today's pre-market update, we'll cover: Why the 20-DMA is a key support level How far markets could fall if the 200-DMA is tested What analysts mean by a 7,000 target for the S&P 500 December's mutual fund distributions and their impact on markets Why the bullish trendline from October 2022 is still in play Despite near-term risks, the bigger trend remains constructive. The key is managing portfolio risk carefully as we move toward year-end.

Lance Roberts examines one of the most reliable technical analysis tools investors use to measure market risk: the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI helps identify when markets are overbought, oversold, or diverging from price action. While RSI is not a perfect “buy or sell” signal, it is a powerful guardrail for risk management. History shows that overbought conditions can persist much longer than expected, but when momentum fades, corrections can arrive suddenly.

The leading economic indicators are showing that the economy is slowing further. Are we headed into recession?It's too early to tell.But it does put today's sky-high stock valuations in doubt, as they depend on very strong earnings growth next year -- which increasingly look at odds with the decelerating economic data.This boosts the chance of a coming correction in the stock market.How big of one?Lance and I discuss in today's video, along with the latest inflation numbers, AI, signs of growing vulnerability in the credit system, central planner intervention and, always, Lance's firm's latest trades,For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Recap.#recession #inflation #ai 0:00 - Slowdown Signals: Leading Indicators Suggest Economic Weakening4:44 - Economic Data: 3.8% Q2 GDP Driven by Trade, Spending Outpaces Income6:43 - Earnings Gap: Mag 7 Slows, Bottom 493 Flat, 11-15% Growth Questioned9:18 - AI's Economic Impact: Reduces Jobs/Wages, Hurts Earnings Outlook10:00 - Leading Economic Index: Negative Turn Signals Slower Growth11:19 - 2022 Anomaly: Stimulus Masked Recession Signals, Now Normalizing13:57 - Yield Curve Uninversion: Signals Slower Growth, Recession Risk14:56 - Employment Trends: Full-Time Jobs Drop, Weakens Consumer Spending16:52 - Recession Context: 16-Year Gap, Policy Aversion to Downturns18:29 - Policy Response: All-Out Stimulus Likely for Even Mild Recession23:21 - Policy Addiction: QE, Zero Rates, Checks Expected at Job Losses26:20 - Inflation History: Pre-2000 Restraint vs. Post-Reagan Deficit Surge31:05 - Wealth Inequality: Top 10% Own ~80% Net Worth, Policy-Driven35:30 - Socialism vs. Capitalism: 46% Youth Favor Socialism Amid Inequality39:13 - Speculative Risks: Perpetual Options, Leveraged Bitcoin ETF Losses41:57 - AI Bubble: Nvidia-OpenAI Circular Financing Echoes Dot-Com Excesses47:53 - Entrepreneurship: Capital Access Easier, Opportunities for Scrappy Ideas57:12 - Precious Metals: Silver Melt-Up, Rebalanced to Manage Gains59:46 - Bitcoin Concerns: Leveraged ETFs Down 45%, Signals Risk-Off Move1:01:49 - Technical Analysis: Overbought High Beta, Declining Money Flows1:06:23 - Market Outlook: 5-10% Oct-Nov Correction, Buyable for Year-End Rally1:12:11 - Bond Bull Case: High Valuations, Low ERP Favor Bonds Over Stocks1:16:45 - Tricolor Bankruptcy: $1B Subprime Auto Loans Signal Credit Issues1:20:56 - PayPal's Buy-Now-Pay-Later: Debt Sale Raises Red Flags1:24:13 - AI Spending Risks: $800B Shortfall, Winner-Take-All Dynamics_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The Federal Reserve's latest move has investors asking: Is policy turning more accommodative or staying restrictive? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz decode the Fed's decision, cut through the jargon, and explain what it means for markets, rates, and your money. We'll cover: What the Fed actually signaled last week The difference between accommodative and restrictive policy How markets typically react to these shifts Key risks for stocks, bonds, and the economy going forward Stay tuned as we unpack the Fed's message and put it into plain language for investors navigating uncertain markets. SEG-1a: On becoming "vintage" and Irrational Exuberance SEG-1b: Markets Appear to be Pulling Back SEG-2a: Jerome Powell's "Fairly Valued" Market Assessment SEG-2b:The Virtual Circle of the Markets & Economy SEG-2c: Quad Chart: Is the Fed too Easy or too Restrictive? SEG-2d: Markets Are Always Searching for a Narrative SEG-2e: AI Impact - A Double-edged Sword SEG-2f: What Credit Spread Compression is Telling Us SEG-2g: How We Manage in the Markets Now SEG-2h: The Fed Jargon Test Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, ww Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed's Latest Move" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/accommodative-or-restrictive-decoding-the-feds-latest-move/ -------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDHV6eIWGlI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pullback or Just a Pause?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYd7d13Iu1Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our Previous Show, "Strange Recession Signals: What Markets & Odd Indicators are Telling us" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKIv4RZn6sE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #PreMarketUpdate #MarketPullback #EnergyStocks #StockMarketAnalysis #DecodingTheFed #FederalReserve #FedDecision #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing