Podcasts about tong zhao

Visit us at Network2020.org.Humanity stands closer than ever to catastrophe, warn the experts behind the Doomsday Clock. The tracker of human-caused destruction ticked one second closer to midnight last month, the closest it has ever been in its nearly eight-decade history. The shift reflects growing nuclear tensions, particularly the impending expiration of the New START treaty in 2026, which threatens to eliminate the last remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia. With little indication that either side is willing to extend it, the global nuclear balance grows more precarious. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its warhead stockpile, while North Korea and Iran continue advancing their nuclear programs. As geopolitical tensions escalate, are we witnessing the start of a new nuclear arms race? What risks does this pose for global security, and are there any political openings to establish new arms control frameworks?Join us for a discussion on the escalating risks of nuclear proliferation and the future of arms control, featuring Alexandra Bell, President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Ambassador Steven Pifer, affiliate of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation and non-resident Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Dr. Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and nonresident researcher at the Science and Global Security Program of Princeton University.

As China continues to expand and modernize its nuclear arsenal and policy, the national security risk becomes central to the US-Chinese relationship. But how is China actually changing its nuclear policy? How does the Chinese political leadership see the purpose of a large nuclear arsenal? What threats are both China and the US perceiving? Tong Zhao joins Jon to discuss his recently published report on Chinese nuclear policy and break down all these topics and more. Listen here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As China continues to expand and modernize its nuclear arsenal and policy, the national security risk becomes central to the US-Chinese relationship. But how is China actually changing its nuclear policy? How does the Chinese political leadership see the purpose of a large nuclear arsenal? What threats are both China and the US perceiving? Tong Zhao joins Jon to discuss his recently published report on Chinese nuclear policy and break down all these topics and more. Listen here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This election isn't just about votes—it's about who controls the world's most powerful weapons. In this season of NukeTalk, we will explore The Nuclear Ballot: How the U.S. Election Shapes Nuclear Policy. We bring you insights from top nuclear weapons experts on how this election can shape nuclear weapons policy in the future as stakes rise in this election cycle.   In this episode, we'll explore the intricate web of strategic relationships shaped by the upcoming US election, focusing on the US relationships with China, Russia, and NATO. As candidates navigate [or blatantly ignore] nuclear weapons and global security, their language may influence these relationships. In a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, we'll explore how election outcomes could impact power dynamics, provoke reactions from adversaries, and ultimately reshape alliances.   Featured Guests: Dr. Tong Zhao, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Kimberly St. Julian Varnon, a doctoral candidate in Soviet history at the University of Pennsylvania, and Dr. Marion Messmer, senior research fellow in the International Security program at Chatham House.

I can only recommend reading the report - Political Drivers of China's Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security - so I also wanted to talk to its author. Tong Zhao is a Senior Fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China and I'm happy he agreed and what follows is our debate. Are you interested in knowing more about China's decision process for the use of nuclear weapons? Or about possible cooperation between China and Russia in the area of nuclear weapons development? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The US-China Relationship and Catastrophic Risk (EAG Boston transcript), published by EA Global on July 12, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Introduction This post is a write-up of a panel discussion held at EA Global: Boston 2023 (27-29 October). The panel was moderated by Matthew Gentzel. Matthew currently co-leads Longview Philanthropy's program on nuclear weapons policy and co-manages the organization's Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund. He was joined by two other experts on US-China relations and related catastrophic risks: Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow for the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Bill Drexel, Fellow for the Technology and National Security Program, Center for a New American Security Below is a transcript of the discussion, which we've lightly edited for clarity. The panelists covered the following main topics: Opening remarks summarizing the panelists' general views on the US-China relationship and related risks, with an initial focus on nuclear security before exploring other risks and dangerous technologies How to address different norms around sharing information Problems resulting from risk compensation Quick takes on which risks are overhyped and which are underhyped AI governance structures, the Chinese defense minister's dismissal, and the US's semiconductor export policies Ideas for calibrating how the US cooperates and/or competes with China Opening remarks Matthew: We'll start with opening remarks, then get into questions. Tong: Thank you so much. I think the catastrophic risk between the US and China is increasing, not least because the chance of serious military conflict between the two sides - most likely arising from a Taiwan Strait scenario - is growing. And in a major military conflict, the risk of nuclear escalation is certainly there. In a mostly strained scenario, this could lead to a nuclear winter if there's a massive nuclear exchange. Even a limited nuclear exchange or very serious conventional conflict between the two powers could destabilize the international geopolitical landscape and very negatively affect the normal development and progression of humanity. In the long run, I worry that both sides are preparing for a worst-case scenario of major conflict with each other, leading to de facto war mobilization efforts. In the case of China, strategists in Beijing are still worried that there is going to be an eventual showdown between the two sides. And therefore, China is working on developing the necessary military capabilities for that eventuality. It is developing its economic capacity to withstand international economic sanctions and its capability to influence the international narrative to avoid political isolation in a major crisis. And those efforts are leading to incremental decoupling in the economic and technological domains, as well as to general decoupling of policy expert communities on the two sides. As a result of this long-term competition and rivalry, I think long-term risks to humanity are generally downplayed. Part of China's recent policy change is a very rapid increase of its nuclear weapons capability. This does not necessarily mean that China aims to use nuclear weapons first in a future conflict. However, as China focuses on enhancing its nuclear and strategic military capabilities, it is paying less attention to the risks associated with such development. One example is China's increasing interest in having launch-under-attack or launch-on-warning nuclear capability. That means China will depart from its decades-long practice of maintaining a low-level status for its nuclear forces and shift towards a rapid-response posture, in which China's early warning system will provide Chinese leadership with a warning of any incoming missile attack. Before the in...

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China's power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024. For this debate, the proposition is “China's accelerated expansion of its nuclear arsenal represents a shift in China's nuclear strategy and doctrine.” Arguing for this proposition is Dr. Tong Zhao, who is a senior fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Fiona Cunningham who is an assistant Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

To commemorate the 10th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Carnegie China is launching a series of lookback episodes, using clips from previous interviews to put current international issues in context. For the first episode in this series, the podcast looks back on ten years of U.S.-China diplomacy following the postponement of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's planned visit to China in early 2023.The China in the World podcast has spanned three U.S. administrations and covered several historic bilateral meetings, from Obama and Xi's summit in Sunnylands, California in June 2013 to Trump and Xi's meeting at Mar-a-Lago in April 2017. This episode gives a glimpse into the evolution of U.S.-China relations during a pivotal decade and sheds light on what can be accomplished during high-level meetings–what went right and what went wrong during past meetings. The episode features clips from Paul Haenle's interviews with over 20 American, Chinese, and international experts on foreign affairs: Stephen J. Hadley, former U.S. National Security Advisor, Xie Tao, Dean of the School of International Relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University, Yan Xuetong, Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, Randall Schriver, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Evan Medeiros, Professor at Georgetown University and former advisor to President Obama, Zhao Hai, research fellow at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, Jia Dazhong, professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, Danny Russel, former special assistant to President Obama and senior director for Asian Affairs on the National Security Council, Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor and former senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, Cui Liru, former president of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, Doug Paal, former vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, Graham Allison, Director of the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School, William J. Burns, CIA Director and former President of the Carnegie Endowment, Susan Thornton, former Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the Department of State, Evan Feigenbaum, Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, Jie Dalei, associate professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, Tong Zhao, senior fellow at Carnegie China, and Hoang Thi Ha, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

After nine years as Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), Beatrice Fihn is stepping down. She talks with Ploughshares President Emma Belcher to reflect on her time leading the organization, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and her hopes for the future. On Early Warning, Lauren Billet sits down with Tong Zhao, senior fellow at Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program. He discusses the leaked memo by a high-ranking US general predicting a war between the US and China by 2025 and how it furthers the narrative of the “China threat”.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Tong Zhao joins us to discuss China's views on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential lessons China may learn. Dr. Zhao begins by describing the evolution of Chinese reactions to the invasion, from optimism of its impacts on China to uncertainty. He says that, in China, there is a common perception that Russia and Ukraine are comparable to China and Taiwan. Dr. Zhao then explains that the West's comprehensive sanctions against Russia and military support for Ukraine reinforce China's fear that the West seeks to strangle countries with different political systems. Finally, Dr. Zhao discusses how the invasion of Ukraine might change the global geopolitical landscape, and that he thinks the invasion will significantly impact China's foreign policy going forward.

Is a nuclear arms race inevitable? China has been building up its nuclear arsenal over the past few years. While it remains significantly smaller than the US and Russia's, what does this mean for geopolitics against the backdrop of US-China tensions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine?Tong Zhao (@zhaot2005) is a fellow at the Carnegie Center in Beijing who focuses on China's nuclear program. Co-hosting is Schwarzmann Scholar Raven Witherspoon.We also discussWhy China sees NATO as the aggressor and Russia as the victimWhy policy experts' lack of technical literacy is a big problemHow China understands nuclear deterrenceChina's argument for Putin being a rational actorWhether there is any hopeOutro music: 七里香 Remix (original version by Jay Chou) by MACOVASEAS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVvpgNG0giMChinaTalk is on Substack! See, share, subscribe: https://chinatalk.substack.comAlso now on Youtube! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXOtILmQEo3pL_1bJfUOFWwAnd please consider supporting ChinaTalk on Patreon so we can eat more Haidilao before the world ends: https://www.patreon.com/ChinaTalk Get bonus content on Patreon See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Is a nuclear arms race inevitable? China has been building up its nuclear arsenal over the past few years. While it remains significantly smaller than the US and Russia's, what does this mean for geopolitics against the backdrop of US-China tensions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine?Tong Zhao (@zhaot2005) is a fellow at the Carnegie Center in Beijing who focuses on China's nuclear program. Co-hosting is Schwarzmann Scholar Raven Witherspoon.We also discussWhy China sees NATO as the aggressor and Russia as the victimWhy policy experts' lack of technical literacy is a big problemHow China understands nuclear deterrenceChina's argument for Putin being a rational actorWhether there is any hopeOutro music: 七里香 Remix (original version by Jay Chou) by MACOVASEAS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVvpgNG0giMChinaTalk is on Substack! See, share, subscribe: https://chinatalk.substack.comAlso now on Youtube! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXOtILmQEo3pL_1bJfUOFWwAnd please consider supporting ChinaTalk on Patreon so we can eat more Haidilao before the world ends: https://www.patreon.com/ChinaTalk Get bonus content on Patreon See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Over a year since President Joe Biden assumed office, U.S.-China relations remain on edge. The Xi-Biden summit in November 2021, as well as high-level meetings in Anchorage, Beijing, and Rome yielded few, if any, breakthroughs. Critical trade and technology issues remain unresolved. China's refusal to oppose Russia over the invasion of Ukraine threatens to further undermine U.S.-China ties. How will developments in Ukraine impact U.S.-China relations?  How will the United States and China find a way to reduce trade and technology tensions? Fifty years after Nixon's visit to China, how can U.S.-China relations find a more stable equilibrium? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with William Choong, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, and Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This panel is the third of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2021-2022 and is also available to be watched online.

Väst står enat i sitt fördömande av Putins krig i Ukraina. Men runt om i världen är bilden en annan. Flera inflytelserika länder vill inte riskera sina goda relationer med Ryssland. Medverkande: Jan Eliasson, tidigare ordförande för FN:s generalförsamling, Jude Blanchette, Kinakännare vid tankesmedjan Center for Strategic & International Studies, Tong Zhao, tankesmedjan Carnegie i Peking, Alexander Gabuev, tankesmedjan Carnegie i Moskva, Arun Mohan företagare Delhi, Shyam Saran, tankesmedjan Center for Policy Research i New Delhi, Jitendra Nath Misra professor vid Jindal School of International Affairs, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, docent vid Chulalongkorn University i Bangkok, Kantathi Suphamongkhon, Thailands tidigare utrikesminister, William Gumede, docent vid University of the Witwatersrand i Johannesburg.Programledare: Robin Olin robin.olin@sr.seReportrar: Björn Djurberg, Naila Saleem, Arnab Dutta, Peder Gustafsson, Yasmin Coles Tekniker: Lisa AbrahamssonProducent: David Rasmusson david.rasmusson@sr.se

The U.S. and NATO have warned Beijing not to back its ally. What China chooses to do now will have worldwide implications for years to come. We talk about it. Tong Zhao, Dr. Yangyang Cheng and Oriana Skylar Mastro join Meghna Chakrabarti.

Not since China's detonation of its first atomic weapon in 1964 has the United States been so concerned with the country's nuclear capabilities. Recent satellite images suggest China is constructing 100 new ICBM silos, and the Pentagon estimates that China could possess well over 1,000 nuclear warheads by the end of the decade. In addition, the successful test of a cutting-edge, nuclear-capable hypersonic missile last month has rattled the U.S. security community. Why is China rapidly bulking up its nuclear arsenal, and why now? What does this spell for an already fraught U.S.-China security relationship? And how should the United States respond in its efforts to maintain "strategic stability”? On December 13, 2021, the National Committee interviewed M. Taylor Fravel and Tong Zhao to discuss these questions and more on China's expanding nuclear capabilities.

What are the driving forces and goals behind China's nuclear build-up? Should the ongoing U.S.-Russian arms control talks take into account Chinese progress? And does China's refusal to take part in those talks render them meaningless? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program, and Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent at Kommersant to discuss China's plans for its nuclear arsenal.

What are the driving forces and goals behind China's nuclear build-up? Should the ongoing U.S.-Russian arms control talks take into account Chinese progress? And does China's refusal to take part in those talks render them meaningless? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program, and Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent at Kommersant to discuss China's plans for its nuclear arsenal.

What is motivating China's nuclear expansion? That's the question co-host Tom Collina and Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, explore in this week's episode. On Early Warning, co-host Michelle Dover is joined by two guests: Anuradha Damale, member of the Verification and Monitoring team at VERTIC, and Polina Sinovets, Head of the Odessa Center for Nonproliferation. They take a look at the recent Russian anti-missile test and its consequences.

China's rapid recent nuclear expansion—from a hypersonic missile test to hundreds of new nuclear missile silos—is a stark contrast to years of a minimum deterrence approach. To explain the shift, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Tong Zhao joins host Brian Hanson on Deep Dish to unpack China's nuclear strategy, the need for nuclear stability, and how to avoid an arms race or worse.

Welcome to the very first episode of the Youth Fusion Experts Series, a podcast where we engage the leaders and experts in the various related fields of nuclear disarmament, peace and security, and sustainable development. Through these conversations we wish to offer you all the chance to learn and be inspired by those who are actively working towards a fairer and peaceful future for all. Youth Fusion was honored to launch this series by an interview with Dr Tong Zhao, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, based in Beijing at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Dr. Zhao speaks to a Youth Fusion member Accardo Hu about his personal experiences and China's NFU and nuclear disarmament policy.

The result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election will directly impact how the United States, China, and Russia approach issues on the Korean Peninsula. How would a second Trump or first Biden administration deal with North Korea? How do policymakers in Beijing and Moscow evaluate their relations with Pyongyang? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Carnegie experts Alexander Gabuev and Tong Zhao about the outlook for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the role of the United States, China, and Russia.

As nations confront the pandemic, rumors of Kim Jung-un’s death and a flurry of North Korean missile tests injected even more uncertainty in the international landscape. How do views in Washington, Seoul, and Beijing differ or align on North Korea? What are the prospects for the resumption of diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang? And how do tensions on the Korean Peninsula affect Northeast Asia more broadly? Paul Haenle spoke with other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a live recording of the China in the World podcast, where they discuss the outlook for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia Pacific.

Paul Haenle is hosting a special live episode of the China in the World Podcast this Friday, May 15, at 9 PM EST. Join Paul and other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a discussion on the outlook for denuclearization efforts on the Korean peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific. A link to the event can be found here: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/15/china-in-world-interactive-podcast-coronavirus-and-korean-peninsula-event-7328

One of the biggest - and most persistent - stories in the Asia region over the last few years has been North Korea. It may have been pushed out of the headlines recently by the coronavirus pandemic, but as recent missile tests have demonstrated, it's not an issue that's going away any time soon. In this episode Andrew is joined by Chun In-Bum, a renowned expert on Korean relations who's a veteran Lieutenant General in the South Korean army, and who briefly served as a security adviser to President Moon Jae-in. To discuss China's role and interests, Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, joins us from Beijing as well. NB: This episode was recorded shortly before the coronavirus crisis took hold. Support the show (https://twitter.com/AsiaMattersPod)

The U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the expiration of the New START treaty in 2021 threaten to derail decades-long efforts to maintain an effective global arms control regime. In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, about the deterioration of global arms control institutions and its effects on U.S.-China relations and regional nonproliferation efforts to contain North Korea and Iran's nuclear ambitions. Weitz argued that the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty stemmed from Russia’s repeated violations of the agreement and had little to do with China. Weitz said, however, that Beijing must be included in any new negotiations despite the difficulties of implementing trilateral arms control agreements. Furthermore, Weitz highlighted Beijing’s crucial role in either resuscitating the crumbling Iran nuclear agreement or negotiating a new one. On North Korea, Weitz said a lack of forward momentum in diplomacy could lead to increased tensions with Pyongyang. Though measured sanctions relief might be necessary to prevent a return to the brinksmanship of 2017, Weitz cautioned against any such actions that do not include safeguards that prevent Pyongyang from reneging on its commitments.

At the beginning of 2019, Paul Haenle and Tong Zhao, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center Senior Fellow, discussed the outlook for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula on the China in the World podcast. As 2019 draws to a close, Haenle and Zhao sat down again to analyze developments involving North Korea, the United States, and China over the past year and discuss Kim Jong-un’s end of year deadline for the United States to change its approach to denuclearization negotiations. Zhao pointed to Trump and Kim’s failure to reach an agreement at the Hanoi Summit as the biggest surprise in developments relating to diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula in 2019. In the wake of the summit and following a series of unproductive working-level talks, Kim is ramping up pressure on the United States to extract concessions, Zhao said. Pyongyang only wants a limited agreement from Washington that would see the relaxation of the most stringent United Nations Security Council sanctions in return for some controls on North Korea’s nuclear program. Zhao argued the United States and the international community no longer have the coercive ability to force North Korea to take significant actions that would circumscribe its nuclear program. As we approach North Korea’s end of year deadline, Zhao said he is uncertain to what extent Pyongyang will ratchet up tensions if a deal cannot be reached. However, he noted that Kim is increasingly adept at ensuring provactive actions such as missile tests do not irritate Russia or China, while applying greater pressure on the United States. North Korea increasingly views Trump as a paper tiger, Zhao said. Facing domestic pressures and unwilling to go to war, many in Pyongyang believe Trump will eventually lower his demands and agree to a lesser deal.

The upcoming Hanoi Summit and the United States’ withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) are two important developments in the area of nuclear arms control with significant implications for the Asia-Pacific region. In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Li Bin, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy and Asia programs, about the importance of these two critical nuclear arms control issues and their implications for China.

Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address and fourth visit to Beijing quickly put Pyongyang back in the spotlight in 2019. His meeting with Xi Jinping also likely foreshadowed a meeting with President Trump in the near future. On this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, on the implications of Kim’s New Year’s address and meeting with Xi Jinping, as well as the outlook for North Korea’s relations with China and the United States in 2019. Zhao said Kim’s threats to take a “new path” if the U.S. does not lift sanctions does not mean a return to nuclear and missile tests. Instead, Pyongyang will likely strengthen ties with Beijing, departing from its focus on balancing relations between the United States and China. Zhao agreed with Haenle that the North Korea nuclear problem is not solved, as President Trump has claimed. North Korea appears committed to maintaining its intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear programs. The fundamental barrier preventing progress on denuclearization is that Pyongyang will not trust any U.S. security guarantees, as such commitments are reversible. Instead, Zhao pushed for a long-term process that builds trust and transforms the relationship from hostile to friendly. The Kim-Xi relationship is one of convenience, rather than actual friendship, Zhao said. As Kim prepares for a second summit with Trump, he is not confident he can secure sanctions relief and is more willing to cozy up to Beijing. However, building a long-term relationship with the United States remains Kim’s priority. Washington’s support is key to lifting UN sanctions that prevent the North Korean economy from developing quickly. Zhao said China supports a second meeting between Trump and Kim because there is real hope that it could lead to actual progress on a deal. However, if the meeting does not go well, China is likely to blame the United States for not accommodating North Korean demands, widening the gap between Washington and Beijing during a delicate period in the relationship. If the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorates, China might even accuse the United States of deliberately precipitating a crisis to advance its own interests in the region.

In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, about U.S., Chinese and Russian perspectives on nuclear arms control and its relevance to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

This week, Kaiser chats with Paul Haenle, who is the Maurice R. Greenberg Director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and previously served on the National Security Council as a staffer under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Their conversation — which runs the gamut from North Korea to Taiwan to the Belt and Road — was recorded live at Schwarzman College in Beijing on September 6. Recommendations: Paul: The China in the World podcast, which he hosts, and which recently published its 100th episode. The work of Tong Zhao, a North Korea scholar at the Carnegie-Tsinghua. “Singapore Sham,” a highly critical article by Jessica Matthews about the Trump-Kim summit. And The Impossible State, a podcast about North Korea by four experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Kaiser: Listennotes.com, where you can find topics and people in podcasts all neatly sorted and searchable.

The release of the Trump Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review earlier this year emphasized the growing threat of nuclear competition in the Asia-Pacific, specifically with reference to Russia, North Korea, and China. In this podcast, Tong Zhao sat down with David Santoro, Director and Senior Fellow of Nuclear Policy Programs at the Pacific Forum, to explore pressing nuclear issues in the region and their implications for the U.S.-China relationship.

Kim Jong-un became the first North Korean leader to step foot in South Korea at the Panmunjom Summit in April 2018, setting the stage for President Trump’s meeting with Kim in June. Just days after the summit, Paul Haenle spoke with Dr. Tong Zhao, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, on the significance of the Kim-Moon meeting and its implications for China and the United States.

What are Chinese “red lines” when it comes to the Korean Peninsula? What further actions by Pyongyang might lead China to fundamentally shift its approach to one that involves more comprehensive pressure and sanctions, such as a complete oil embargo? In this podcast, Dr. Tong Zhao, a fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, tells Paul Haenle that while the sixth nuclear test did not cross a Chinese “red line”, there are actions North Korea could take that would do so. Most notably, if North Korea were to launch a nuclear warhead and detonate it over the Pacific Ocean, that would cross Beijing’s “red line” and lead to a significantly harsher stance towards the regime, Zhao argued. This is especially alarming given statements by North Korea’s Foreign Minister, Ri Yong Ho, on September 22nd, that indicated North Korea may be preparing to do just that.

Two weeks into President Trump’s first term, the White House has launched a review of its North Korea policy. Dealing with the threat from Pyongyang's missile launches and nuclear weapons program is likely to top the administration's security agenda in the region. Paul Haenle spoke with Tong Zhao, a fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, about how North Korea and other regional security challenges will fit into the new context for U.S.-China relations under the Trump administration.

Chinese nuclear experts think about nuclear weapons very differently from their U.S. counterparts. They use different terminology and contrasting security paradigms to discuss and make decisions on nuclear policy. How can Washington and Beijing promote an effective dialogue and shared understanding despite their disparate approaches? In their latest report, Li Bin and Tong Zhao present their findings on the topic. Their analysis is followed by a moderated conversation.

Tensions in the global nuclear order are rising. The new Carnegie report Perspectives on the Evolving Nuclear Order asks what role ‘middle ground,’ or emerging, nuclear states will play in the global debate on these issues. Debak Das, Mariana Nascimento Plum, and Tong Zhao discuss Indian, Brazilian, and Chinese views on the nuclear order. Carnegie’s Toby Dalton moderates. Immediately following, Adam Scheinman comments on themes presented in the first panel in the context of his experience leading the U.S. delegation to the 2015 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference. Carnegie’s Togzhan Kassenova moderates.

China's foreign policy has shifted in recent years from a low-profile approach to a more proactive one. This change is evident in China's growing diplomatic, economic, and military influence. John Garver and Tong Zhao discuss China's emerging role in global affairs and how the United States and countries in the Asia-Pacific perceive this geopolitical shift.

In this podcast, Tong Zhao and Matthew Kroenig discuss U.S. policy options in the event that nuclear negotiations with Iran fall through and the future outlook of NATO nuclear posture in Europe.

Tong Zhao sat down with Ariane Tabatabai, an expert on Iranian nuclear affairs, to discuss the recent P5+1 framework agreement and follow-up negotiations to occur before June, China's role in the negotiations, and the future of China-Iran diplomatic and economic relations.

In part two of this podcast, Tong Zhao and Elbridge Colby discuss possible changes to U.S. nuclear doctrine, the potential for maintaining nuclear nonproliferation efforts in East Asia, and the future prospects of international arms control.

Carnegie–Tsinghua's Tong Zhao and Elbridge Colby discuss recent changes to U.S. military doctrine, possible changes in the Asia-Pacific's military balance, and the possibility of a regional conflict escalating to the nuclear threshold. Colby highlighted the importance of arms control agreements in avoiding military escalation, but he expressed reservations about the feasibility of certain measures.

CTC's Tong Zhao, Xiamen University's Professor Li Ning, and Carnegie's Mark Hibbs continue their discussions on China's plans for the development of its nuclear energy program. Can China reach its plan's ambitious goals of fast nuclear energy growth and at the same time keep its nuclear energy program safe, secure, and sustainable? Listen here to the final half of their fascinating conversation.

CTC's Tong Zhao, Xiamen University's Professor Li Ning, and Carnegie's Mark Hibbs discuss China's plans for the development of its nuclear energy program. Can China reach its plan's ambitious goals of fast nuclear energy growth and at the same time keep its nuclear energy program safe, secure, and sustainable? Listen here to part one of two of their fascinating conversation.