ChinaPower

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Eric Labs and Dr. Matthew Funaiole join us to explore the widening gap in U.S.-China shipbuilding capabilities. They begin by examining the evolution in U.S.-China shipbuilding industrial capacity since World War II. Dr. Labs points out that while China's shipbuilding industrial capacity has grown substantially due to large-scale state subsidies and government support, the U.S. has steadily fallen behind in production capacity since the 1960s with the rise of Japan and South Korea shipbuilding industries and the end of construction differential subsidies in the early 1980s. Dr. Funaiole further emphasizes that this industrial capacity disparity is particularly concerning as many foreign companies from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are purchasing commercial ships from Chinese shipyards, which effectively offsets Chinese naval shipbuilding production costs and facilitates technological transfer. Both guests warn that this widening shipbuilding gap could impact U.S. warfighting and logistics capacity in a prolonged conflict. Dr. Labs concludes with four policy options for the U.S.to consider, including improving labor issues and enhancing workforce attrition within the shipbuilding industry, legislation changes to allow the U.S. to purchase warships from allies, designing smaller warships, and incorporating unmanned maritime platforms in the navy. Finally, Dr. Funaiole recommends a change in policy approach that combines national security and economic outcomes that specifically target Chinese shipyards that are dual use in nature, while ensuring sustained efforts in revamping the U.S. shipbuilding industry across future administrations. Dr. Eric Labs is the Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons at the Congressional Budget Office in Washington, D.C. He specializes in issues related to the procurement, budgeting, and sizing of the forces for the Department of the Navy.  Dr. Labs has testified before Congress numerous times and published many reports under the auspices of the Congressional Budget Office as well as articles and papers in academic journals and conferences, including the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings, Sea Power magazine, the Naval War College Review, and Security Studies. He has given presentations to a variety of industry, government, and academic audiences. Dr. Matthew P. Funaiole is vice president of the iDeas Lab, Andreas C. Dracopoulos Chair in Innovation, and senior fellow in the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He specializes in using data-driven research to address complex policy issues, with a focus on Chinese foreign policy, dual-use technology, and maritime trade. In 2022, he launched the “Hidden Reach” initiative, which leverages open-source intelligence to uncover poorly understood sources of Chinese influence and examine how China advances its strategic interests through commercial and scientific ventures. From late 2015 through mid-2020, he was the principal researcher for the ChinaPower website. Prior to joining CSIS, Dr. Funaiole taught international relations and foreign policy analysis at the University of Saint Andrews in Scotland, where he also completed his doctoral research. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the recent escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and China. Dr. Kennedy starts with laying out the current situation, as it was on April 14th when the podcast was recorded, with the Trump administration placing 145% tariffs on China and China retaliating with roughly 125 % tariffs on the United States. Dr. Kennedy notes that this level of escalation is not what many experts expected and explains that many in China believe that the U.S. is using the tariffs to drive the U.S. and China into economic war and to confront and isolate China on all dimensions. Further, he explains that during the first Trump administration, tariffs were used mainly as a negotiation tool, yet in Trump's second term, it seems tariffs are being used in an attempt to remake the global economic architecture. Dr. Kennedy believes that the tariffs are working to boost China's international image and the current turbulence in U.S. domestic politics has worked to change domestic opinion in China on the United States. At the same time, China is trying to cast itself as a more predictable international actor. Dr. Kennedy believes that at some point, there will be a deal between the U.S. and China that will lower or remove the reciprocal tariffs. However, this deal will likely be superficial and will not address the key problems in this bilateral relationship. Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has been traveling to China for 37 years. His ongoing areas of focus include China's innovation drive, Chinese industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and global economic governance. His articles have appeared in a wide array of policy, popular, and academic venues, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and China Quarterly. Dr. Kennedy hosts the China Field Notes podcast, which features voices from on the ground in China. From 2000 to 2014, Dr. Kennedy was a professor at Indiana University (IU), where he established the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business and was the founding academic director of IU's China Office. Dr. Kennedy received a PhD in political science from George Washington University, an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a BA from the University of Virginia.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Jeffrey Ding joins us to discuss U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) competition and his book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Dr. Ding describes the framework he uses to understand the competition between the US and China on AI and explains that while many assume leading a technological competition comes from developing the next breakthrough invention, it should actually be centered around the diffusion of these technologies throughout their population of users. Technological leadership, therefore, depends on which country can best transfer and spread innovation from its top firms to the entire economy more effectively. Dr. Ding notes that China prioritizes an innovation-centric approach while neglecting broad-based technical and STEM education. He finds that the United States is better positioned than China to adopt and diffuse AI across a broad spectrum of sectors, given that more U.S. training institutions meet a quality baseline compared to China's. Dr. Ding advises that since the United States is better positioned to diffuse AI technologies throughout its economy, it should focus on “running fast” rather than restricting China's access to advanced technologies. Finally, Dr. Ding recommends that Washington focus on education policy, widening the base of AI engineers by increasing training sites, supporting public-private partnerships, and helping SMEs develop their AI capabilities. Dr. Jeffrey Ding is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University, and the author of Technology and the Rise of Great Power: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Previously, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, sponsored by Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. His research has been published or is forthcoming at European Journal of International Security, Foreign Affairs, Review of International Political Economy, and Security Studies, and his work has been cited in The Washington Post, The Financial Times, and other outlets. He also writes a weekly "ChinAI" newsletter, which features translations of Chinese conversations about AI development, to 12,000+ subscribers including the field's leading policymakers, scholars, and journalists. Dr. Ding holds a Ph.D in international relations from Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes scholar.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Joel Wuthnow and Dr. Phil Saunders join us to discuss their new book on the People's Liberation Army (PLA): “China's Quest for Military Supremacy.” They begin by explaining the motivations behind their book and the growing demand for a comprehensive resource on the PLA among students, policymakers, and defense practitioners. Dr. Wuthnow then outlines how the PLA has entered a “new era” under Xi Jinping, characterized by greater confidence, structural reforms, and an expanding operational reach. Dr. Saunders then highlights how the PLA is increasingly being used to shape the Indo-Pacific region, citing China's recent live-fire exercises near Australia and New Zealand as an example of its more assertive posture. Both experts also delve into key challenges facing the PLA, from Xi Jinping's efforts to tighten party control to persistent corruption and political reliability issues. They also assess how the PLA's rigid command structure and political indoctrination could undermine effectiveness in a crisis. Finally, the two experts assess the PLA's progress becoming more joint, its nuclear modernization efforts, and the broader implications for U.S. and regional security. They conclude by discussing their views on how a second Trump administration could impact PLA behavior and China's strategic calculations. Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is Director of the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs. Dr. Saunders previously worked at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, where he served as Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program from 1999-2003. He also serves as an adjunct instructor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Edward Fishman joins us to discuss the evolving landscape of economic warfare and the United States' strategic use of economic tools against China and other global actors. Drawing from his new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, he explains how sanctions, tariffs, and export controls have become central to great power competition and explores how today's hyper-globalized economy has created chokepoints—critical areas where one state holds a dominant position, allowing for few alternatives. He examines the most potent weapons in the U.S. economic arsenal, and how their use—or mere threat—can compel adversaries to shift behavior. Mr. Fishman provides an insider's account of the Trump administration's economic warfare strategy against China and the rationale behind its approach. He also analyzes China's dual-track approach to economic warfare, the Biden administration's use of economic warfare against Russia, and the role of U.S. firms in carrying out Washington's policies. He concludes with recommendations for how the U.S. can refine its strategy to more effectively compete with China. Edward Fishman is a leading authority on economic statecraft and sanctions. He teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and is a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy. He also advises companies on geopolitical strategy and invests in early-stage technology startups. Previously, he served at the U.S. State Department as a member of the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff, at the Pentagon as an advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and at the U.S. Treasury Department as special assistant to the Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. His writing and analysis are regularly featured by outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Politico, and NPR. He holds a BA in History from Yale, an MPhil in International Relations from Cambridge, and an MBA from Stanford.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Kyle Jaros and Dr. Sara Newland join us to explore the evolution of U.S.-China subnational diplomacy. They begin by examining the history and current landscape of US-China relations at the subnational level. They point out specifically that throughout the last five years, U.S.-China relations at the subnational level have become increasingly politicized. Dr. Newland explains that we are seeing a trickledown effect of local politicians weighing in on Taiwan and China issues, setting up local caucuses that mimic those in congress and notes that these actions are contributing to increased Sinophobia within U.S. local communities. Dr. Jaros further explains that in recent years, longstanding subnational ties with China have started winding down, with state and local leaders more hesitant to visit China, meet with Chinese officials, or welcome Chinese investments. They note this hesitation originates both from federal policy and from an increasingly hawkish stance at the sub-national level. However, both guests underscore that there are still areas of cooperation between U.S. and China on the local level, with one example being student exchange programs through universities. Dr. Jaros notes that it is important to continue human to human contacts with China and to be careful not to dehumanize the other side. Finally, Dr. Newland stresses the importance of the U.S. federal government creation of resources to educate local leaders on how to engage effectively with Chinese leaders. Kyle A. Jaros is an associate professor at the University of Notre Dame's Keough School of Global Affairs, where he studies the politics of urban and regional development and governance and subnational foreign affairs, with a particular focus on China. He is the author of China's Urban Champions: The Politics of Spatial Development and has contributed extensively to leading China studies and social science journals. Dr. Jaros holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in political science from Harvard University and an A.B. in public and international affairs, along with a certificate in Chinese language and culture, from Princeton University. He also earned a graduate certificate in Chinese studies from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center. Sara Newland is associate professor of government at Smith College. She is a scholar of local politics in China and Taiwan, with a research focus on how local officials operate both as domestic policymakers and as participants in international relations. Her work on local governance and public service provision has been featured in The China Quarterly and Governance, and her recent research explores subnational diplomacy, particularly the role of state and local officials in shaping U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. Dr. Newland holds a Ph.D. and M.A. from UC Berkeley and a B.A. from Wellesley College. Together, Dr. Jaros and Dr. Newland spent the past year as visiting fellows at the Truman Center for National Policy on a project examining city-level US-China relations. The white paper they have authored based on this research will be released in late February. They are also co-authoring a book on U.S.-China subnational diplomacy in an era of growing great power competition.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Mihaela Papa joins us to explore the significance of BRICS and its evolving role in reshaping global governance. Dr. Papa begins by examining the importance of this platform, such as the BRICS countries' central role in addressing major global development challenges, and its goals as an organization, such as striving towards a more equitable multipolar world order. She discusses the group's rapid expansion over the past two years and delves into the key factors driving its growing appeal among countries in the Global South. The conversation focuses particularly on China's role within BRICS, highlighting how it leverages the bloc to advance its strategic objectives on the global stage. Particular attention is given to China's efforts in pushing for innovation and AI cooperation and the bloc's de-dollarization agenda. Dr. Papa concludes by evaluating the effectiveness of BRICS and examining the strategic implications it presents for U.S. policy. Dr. Mihaela Papa. Dr. Papa is a BRICS expert from MIT Center for International Studies, where she serves as the Director of Research and Principal Research Scientist. Before joining MIT, she co-founded and led the Rising Power Alliances project and taught sustainable development and global governance at The Fletcher School at Tufts University. She began her BRICS research over a decade ago as a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard Law School and a visiting scholar at Fudan University's Center for BRICS Studies. Dr. Papa has published extensively on the rise of new powers and their coalition-building efforts. Her recent publications in International Affairs and the European Journal of International Relations explore when BRICS converge and how they can challenge the United States. She has also analyzed BRICS's de-dollarization efforts in the Chinese Journal of International Politics and Cambridge University Press Elements and written on the China-India conflict within BRICS in the Global Policy journal. Her commentary was featured in Foreign Affairs and The Conversation, as well as on Bloomberg, BBC, News24, the South China Morning Post, and other media outlets. Originally a trade economist with a BA from Croatia, she completed her MA in Law and Diplomacy and PhD in International Relations at The Fletcher School, Tufts University.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Matthew Funaiole and Mr. Brian Hart join us to discuss China's ambitions in the polar regions. They start by explaining China's scientific, commercial, strategic, and diplomatic interests in the polar regions and how the polar regions fit into China's broader strategy of leveraging “new strategic frontiers” to expand its influence, outpace rivals, and set global rules and norms. Dr. Funaiole touches on the differing geopolitical environments of the Arctic and Antarctic and how this shapes Beijing's approaches to the two regions. Mr. Hart then provides insights on the dual-use potential of China's polar research stations and how China can use these to achieve military and intelligence goals. They then discuss China's challenges in forming Arctic partnerships and its growing collaboration with Moscow. They conclude with an assessment of the significance to U.S. security interests and offer thoughts on how Washington can work with allies and partners to advance their shared interests.   Matthew P. Funaiole is vice president of the iDeas Lab, Andreas C. Dracopoulos Chair in Innovation, and senior fellow in the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He specializes in using data-driven research to address complex policy issues, with a focus on Chinese foreign policy, dual-use technology, and maritime trade. In 2022, he launched the “Hidden Reach” initiative, which leverages open-source intelligence to uncover poorly understood sources of Chinese influence and examine how China advances its strategic interests through commercial and scientific ventures.    Brian Hart is deputy director and fellow of the China Power Project at CSIS, and he also helps to lead the CSIS “Hidden Reach” initiative. Brian's research focuses on Chinese foreign and security policy, China's military and defense industrial base, Taiwan security issues, U.S.-China relations, and Chinese technology policy. 

This ChinaPower Podcast is a recording of an event we held on December 18th, 2024 on the U.S. Department of Defense's (DOD) 2024 report on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China (PRC)—commonly known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR).   Required every year by Congress for over 20 years, the CMPR offers an authoritative assessment of the PRC's national strategies and its regional and global ambitions. It also outlines key developments pertaining to People's Liberation Army (PLA) modernization and the expansion of its nuclear, cyberspace, and space capabilities. What are the major takeaways from the 2024 report and what is the current assessment of China's military power? How are China's defense and security strategies evolving, and what does it mean for the United States? Joining us to highlight the report's findings are Dr. Ely S. Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs and Dr. Michael S. Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.  

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. He notes that China still sees itself as a great power on the Korean Peninsula, striving for regional stability to ensure its own national security, but that China struggles to use its economic and diplomatic pressures on North Korea, fearing that it may antagonize Pyongyang against Beijing. Dr. Zhang notes that North Korea is widely viewed in China as an agent of chaos and Beijing does not want to be viewed as a member or leader in the “axis of upheaval” with North Korea, Russia, and Iran. Finally, given China's rising concerns about North Korean foreign policy and growing North Korea-Russia ties, Dr. Zhang predicts Beijing will try to play a bigger role in working with the incoming Trump Administration and other regional actors to curb North Korea's provocative behavior. Dr. Feng Zhang is a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. He previously held positions at Tsinghua University, Murdoch University, and the Australian National University. He specializes in Chinese foreign policy, international relations in East Asia, and international relations theory. He is the author of Chinese Hegemony: Grand Strategy and International Institutions in East Asian History (Stanford, 2015). He co-authored two books with Richard Ned Lebow: Taming Sino-American Rivalry (Oxford, 2020) and Justice and International Order: East and West (Oxford, 2022). His new book on China's Policy toward Afghanistan since 1949 will be published shortly. His current project examines the causes and management of U.S.-China competition.  

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ryan Berg joins us to discuss China's relations with Latin America. Dr. Berg discusses both Chinese and U.S. interests in the region, emphasizing that while the U.S. has tended to approach the region with “strategic neglect,” China seems to view Latin America as highly important in terms of both its strategic and economic goals. Dr. Berg explains his view that President Xi is personally invested in the region and believes it holds high economic complementarity to the Chinese economy, specifically in relation to China's Belt and Road Imitative (BRI). Dr. Berg notes that although the U.S. is still the preferred security partner among Latin American countries, China is becoming more competitive in this space and is viewed among many countries as providing more opportunities, specifically in the economic realm. Dr. Berg also discusses the public opinion of China in Latin America, noting that China's image has not fully recovered since its decline during COVID-19, and describes the U.S. efforts to not only warn Latin American countries of the risks of investment and economic deals with China but also the US attempt to compete with China as the preferred economic partner. Dr. Berg provides insights on President Xi's most recent trip to the region for the APEC Leader's Summit, specifically discussing his inauguration of a new massive port in Peru, and other ways Xi seemed to overshadow President Biden. Finally, Dr. Berg discusses some of the concerns surrounding China's growing presence in the region and suggestions for U.S. policymakers. Dr. Ryan C. Berg is director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also an adjunct professor at the Catholic University of America and a course coordinator at the United States Foreign Service Institute. His research focuses on U.S.-Latin America relations, strategic competition and defense policy, authoritarian regimes, armed conflict and transnational organized crime, and trade and development issues. Previously, Dr. Berg was a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he helped lead its Latin America Studies Program, as well as visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford's Changing Character of War Programme. Dr. Berg was a Fulbright scholar in Brazil and is a Council on Foreign Relations Term Member.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Ivan Kanapathy joins us to discuss what Donald Trump's second administration's Indo-Pacific strategy may look like and the ways in which Trump redefined the U.S. relationship with China during his first term. Mr. Kanapathy shares that a second Trump administration will likely show high continuity from his first and speaks to how Trump will have to deal with a more aggressive China this time around but that many of the measures the Trump administration put in place during his first term have served to weaken China throughout the last few years. Mr. Kanapathy provides his assessment that the Trump administration will likely maintain many of the same objectives from the Biden administration, specifically in prioritizing U.S. security and prosperity as well as maintaining strong relationships with our allies and partners. However, he shares that Trump will likely place a larger emphasis on reducing freeriders and on leveling the planning field through increased burden sharing. Mr. Kanapathy shares his thoughts on Trump's proposed economic policies towards the region and his view that Trump's tariffs on China during his first administration were highly successful in diversifying U.S. imports and making goods from allies and partners, rather than China, more attractive. He explains his view that the U.S. needs clearer leadership and a more concrete strategy towards China that includes a model of deterrence without assurances. Finally, Mr. Kanapathy explains that the next administration should seek positive sum competition with China, rather than cooperation, and explains that rather than mil to mil cooperation, leader level meetings will be more effective.   Ivan Kanapathy is a senior vice president with Beacon Global Strategies. From March 2018 to July 2021, he served on the White House's National Security Council staff as director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia and deputy senior director for Asian affairs. From 2014 to 2017, Ivan worked at the American Institute in Taiwan, representing U.S. interests and advising on military and security issues in Taipei. Earlier in his career, Ivan spent a year studying in Beijing and traveling throughout China, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia as a U.S. Marine Corps foreign area study fellow; he later led the development and implementation of the service's global security cooperation strategy and policies at the Pentagon. As a naval flight officer, Ivan accumulated 2,500 flight hours, served three years as a F/A-18 weapons officer and tactics instructor at the U.S Navy Fighter Weapons School (better known as TOPGUN), and deployed to the Middle East and Western Pacific five times, earning several combat awards and decorations. He holds a MA (with distinction) in East Asia security studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, a BS in physics and economics from Carnegie Mellon University, and an AA and diploma (with highest honors) in Chinese – Mandarin from the Defense Language Institute. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Rick Waters joins us to discuss what the recent U.S. presidential election results mean for China. Mr. Waters shares that China viewed President Trump's first term as largely divided into two different phases, a more transactional phase in the first half of the administration and a second phase shaped by U.S. anger at China over Covid-19. Mr. Waters also explains that during the recent U.S. presidential election, Chinese scholars did not see large strategic differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns regarding China, and instead saw the differences as mainly tactical. Similarly, he speaks to China's view that changes in which party controls the U.S. Congress will not cause significant changes in the overall U.S. trajectory on China, as both U.S. parties are increasingly concerned about the challenges and threats China poses. However, he notes Beijing may be concerned that a Republican dominated House and Senate may lead to the end of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. Mr. Waters also speaks to how China may approach the new Trump administration and assesses that China is waiting to see the first moves from the United States and whether those signal that Trump is willing to bargain with Xi or if the United States will take a greater turn towards unilateral decoupling. Finally, Mr. Waters speaks to possibility of NATO expanding into the Indo-Pacific and the growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, and what these changing geopolitics will mean for the future of the US-China relationship. Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Drawing on his decades of experience in the US foreign service, Rick leads the firm's China expertise and client offerings. His research interests include China's global and regional diplomacy, US-China relations, and China's domestic political economy. Rick joined Eurasia Group after a 27-year career as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan. Rick also held multiple roles at the US embassy in Beijing—including during the period between the accidental US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Hainan Island incident in 2001.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Jon Czin joins us to discuss domestic dynamics and leadership decisionmaking within the People's Republic of China's (PRC). Mr. Czin discusses what is currently missing in the conversation within the United States on Chinese politics and the fact that many analysts failed to predict the scope and concentration of power that President Xi Jinping would be able to garner. He describes his humanistic approach to studying decisionmaking by Chinese leadership, attempting to look at issues through the eyes of Xi Jinping and the context within China in which Xi makes these decisions. Mr. Czin discusses his impression of Xi Jinping and both how and why he is vastly different from his predecessors, using Xi's unique past as a primary reason for his style of leadership. He speaks to Xi's focus on domestic and party issues, such as widespread corruption, and discusses what he sees as the limited connection that exists currently between China's internal dynamics and its foreign policy. Mr. Czin shares his assessment that China has arrived as a defining force in the geopolitical environment and in 10 to 20 years China will continue to have the capacity and the will to be a formidable rival to the United States. Finally, he discusses what he sees as China's view of the United State's internal dynamics and the upcoming presidential election. Mr. Jonathan A. Czin is the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings Institution and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at CIA, where he was one of the intelligence community's top China experts. Jon led the intelligence community's analysis of Chinese politics and policymaking, playing a central role in assessing and briefing senior policymakers on President Xi Jinping, his rise to power, and decisionmaking on an array of key issues and crises. From 2021 till 2023, he was director for China at the National Security Council, where he advised on, staffed, and coordinated White House and inter-agency diplomacy with the People's Republic of China, including all of President Biden's interactions with President Xi, and played a leading role in addressing a wide range of global China issues. He also served as advisor for Asia-Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia. He holds a master's in international relations from Yale University, graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College, and studied at Oxford University. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending.    Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing in international security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is the author of Strong Borders, Secure Nation and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949, with numerous publications in leading journals like International Security and Foreign Affairs. A Rhodes Scholar and Andrew Carnegie Fellow, he holds degrees from Middlebury, Stanford, LSE, and Oxford. Fravel also serves on the board of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and leads the Maritime Awareness Project.   Dr. George J. Gilboy is a senior fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). George concurrently heads Woodside Energy's Tokyo office. From 2013 to 2018, George was chief economist and vice president of business environment in Perth, leading Woodside's corporate forecasting team. George lived and worked in China from 1994 to 2013 in roles with Woodside, Shell, Cambridge Energy Research, and Tsinghua University. George holds a BA from Boston College and a PhD in political economy from MIT.   Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a principal research scientist at MIT's Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led research projects on China, Japan, and regional security issues and regularly briefed senior military, intelligence, and political leaders. Prior to that he was a senior fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and was a captain in the US Army Reserve. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Russia and China. Dr. Kendall-Taylor discusses the broader geopolitical factors driving Russia's desire to strengthen ties with China. She analyzes Russia's increasing dependence on China in the context of its war in Ukraine, and recent reports that China may be providing lethal aid to Russia. Dr. Kendall-Taylor also explores the dynamics between Putin and Xi, highlighting how their close relationship shapes the strategic coordination between the two countries. Finally, Dr. Kendall-Taylor addresses potential challenges for Europe and the United States in responding to this growing alignment. Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS, specializing in national security issues, particularly regarding Russia, authoritarianism, and the transatlantic alliance. She previously served as deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She also served as a senior analyst at the CIA, focusing on Russia, autocratic regimes, and democratic decline. Outside CNAS, she is a distinguished practitioner in grand strategy at Yale's Jackson School, and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Her work has appeared in numerous prominent journals including Journal of Peace Research, Democratization, Journal of Democracy, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, The Washington Quarterly, and Foreign Policy. She holds a BA from Princeton and a PhD from UCLA. Kendall-Taylor was also a Fulbright scholar in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Michael Davidson joins us to discuss China's energy security. Dr. Davidson gives an overview of China's energy landscape and compares it to that of other countries, such as the United States. He explains how China's energy priorities have evolved throughout the last decade, especially in response to factors such as climate change and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Davidson emphasizes the effects that the 2021 and 2022 power shortages in China had on senior Chinese leadership and the resulting elevation in importance of energy security, specifically in the power sector. Additionally, Dr. Davidson discusses China's challenge in balancing energy security with its goals of reducing emissions and the resulting expanded definition of what energy security encompasses. Finally, Dr. Davidson speaks to how China's evolving energy security affects its foreign policy and the potential risks for the U.S. and other countries in collaborating with China on clean energy.   Dr. Michael Davidson is an assistant professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of the Jacobs School of Engineering. Michael Davidson's research focuses on the engineering implications and institutional conflicts inherent in deploying renewable energy at scale. He is particularly interested in China's energy system, which he has studied for over 15 years. Dr. Davidson was previously the U.S.-China Climate Policy Coordinator for the environmental nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). He was a Public Intellectuals Program Fellow at the National Committee of U.S.-China Relations, is a current fellow with the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations, and a former Fulbright Scholar. Prior to joining UC San Diego, Davidson was a postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center's Environment and Natural Resources Program. He received his Ph.D. in engineering systems and a masters in Technology and Policy from MIT.   

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick joins us to discuss recent Sino-Russian activities and what they mean for the overall China-Russia relationship. Dr. Wishnick analyzes the May 2024 Xi-Putin meeting in Beijing, noting that the joint statement the two countries released had significant areas of continuity and some areas of change compared to 2023. She then analyzes the meeting between the two leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the nearly half a dozen military exercises the two countries engaged in in July and August 2024. Dr. Wishnick emphasizes that the recent surge of China-Russia military exercises are meant to signal China-Russia political and strategic coordination, with some scheduled in advance as part of their normal annual exercise plans and others scheduled in response to U.S. activities. Finally, Dr. Wishnick shares her predictions for developments within Sino-Russian relations in the coming months.  Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick is a Senior Research Scientist in the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division at CNA. She was a Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University from 2005-2024 and the Coordinator of MSU's Asian Studies Undergraduate Minor from 2010-2019. Since 2002, she has been a research scholar at Columbia University's Weatherhead East Asian Institute. She previously taught undergraduate and graduate courses in international relations, Chinese politics, and Chinese foreign policy at Barnard College, Columbia College, and SIPA. Dr. Wishnick has dual regional expertise on China and Russia and is an expert on Chinese foreign policy, Sino-Russian relations, Northeast Asian and Central Asian security, and Arctic geopolitics.  She received a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University, an MA in Russian and East European Studies from Yale University, and a BA from Barnard College. She speaks Mandarin, Russian, and French.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. I-Chung Lai and Professor Jacques deLisle to unpack China's 2005 Anti-Secession Law and its important implications for cross-Strait relations—the topic of an international conference co-hosted by CSIS and Prospect Foundation in early August 2024. Dr. Lai dissects the legislation's nine articles, particularly Article 8's conditions in which China can employ ‘non-peaceful means' toward Taiwan. Professor deLisle speaks to the implications of the recent “22 Opinions” that China released to strengthen the Anti-Secession Law. The 22 Opinions criminalizes support for Taiwan independence and could be even used against foreign individuals who are not from China or Taiwan. However, Professor deLisle suggests that international recognition and enforcement of these laws would raise human rights concerns. Finally, Dr. Lai and Professor deLisle offer their recommendations on how the United States, Taiwan, and the international community can effectively respond to China's actions.  Dr. I-Chung Lai is the president of Prospect Foundation, a Taiwan-based think tank. Prior to joining the Prospect Foundation, he held several prominent positions within the Democratic Progressive Party, serving as executive director of the DPP Mission to the United States and as the director general of the Department of International Affairs. He has also worked as a special assistant with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Tokyo.  Professor Jacques deLisle is a Stephen A. Cozen professor of law and professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania. His research and teaching focus on contemporary Chinese law and politics, including legal reform and its relationship to economic reform and political change in China, the international status of Taiwan and cross-Strait relations, China's engagement with the international order, legal and political issues in Hong Kong under Chinese rule, and U.S.-China relations. DeLisle is the director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, co-director of the Center for Asian Law, and director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.  

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the major themes from China's long-anticipated Third Plenum and what it signaled for China's economic trajectory in the coming decade. Dr. Kennedy highlights the continuity that the Third Plenum presented, with no drastic economic measures introduced. However, he underscores the idea that Chinese leadership's statist approach may pose additional challenges in addressing domestic issues. Dr. Kennedy also discusses China's linkage between national security and economic progress and its shift toward high-tech development to build resilience and decrease foreign reliance. Finally, Dr. Kennedy provides predictions on where China's economic growth will be in the next two years.  Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has traveled to China for 36 years. Ongoing focuses include China's innovation drive, Chinese industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and global economic governance. His articles have appeared in a wide array of publications, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and China Quarterly. Kennedy hosts the China Field Notes podcast, featuring on-the-ground voices from China, and the Trustee Chair co-runs the Big Data China initiative, which introduces pathbreaking scholarly research to the policy community.    

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Victor Cha joins us to discuss his major takeaways from the June 2024 Putin-Kim summit and the significance of North Korea and Russia's new mutual defense clause for the international community. Dr. Cha dissects how North Korea's relationships with Russia and China have evolved over time and notes that the new defense clause gives North Korea an opportunity to leverage its closer relationship with Russia to its advantage vis-a-vis North Korea-China relations. Dr. Cha explains the global and regional implications of the mutual defense agreement. Finally, Dr. Cha discusses his recommendations for how the United States, South Korea, and other and allies and partners should address this growing relationship.  *This podcast was recorded prior to the 2024 NATO DC Summit.  Dr. Victor Cha is a Senior Vice President for Asia and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. He is professor of government and holds the D.S. Song-KF Chair in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service (SFS) at Georgetown University. In July 2019, he was appointed vice dean for faculty and graduate affairs in SFS. While working for the White House between 2004-2007, Dr. Cha was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council. He was responsible primarily for Japan, the Korean peninsula, Australia/New Zealand, and Pacific Island nation affairs. Dr. Cha was also the deputy head of delegation for the United States at the Six-Party Talks in Beijing. He is the author of five books, including the award-winning Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Aaron Glasserman joins us to discuss China's ethnic minority policies. Dr. Glasserman speaks to the makeup of China's 55 ethnic minority populations and the evolution of China's policies towards the groups. Dr. Glasserman discusses the idea that the CCP's recognition and treatment of these groups is in large part an effort to reinforce its historic identity. He underscores President Xi Jinping's efforts to prioritize the Han identity and facilitate ethnic fusion into one common entity through assimilation and sinicization of other minorities with the Han. Finally, Dr. Glasserman shares how these ethnic minority groups have not been able to organize collectively and pushback against CCP policies. He assesses that China's policies towards its ethnic minorities have not significantly impacted China's international image or foreign policy.  Aaron Glasserman is a current Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies and a former postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University's Paul and Martha Withes Center on Contemporary China. He earned his PhD from Columbia University in 2021, with his dissertation focusing on the history of the Hui Muslim ethnic group in China. Dr. Glasserman has written for Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The China Quarterly, ChinaFile, Project Syndicate, and other publications, with areas of expertise in China's ethnic politics and Islam in China. He is a current Wilson China Fellow at the Wilson Center. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower podcast Meia Nouwens joins us to discuss the major themes and takeaways from the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue. She discusses this year's record number of high-level participants and the significance of the dialogue for regional security. Nouwens unpacks both Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun's and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's speeches and analyzes what they can tell us about the current state of U.S.-China relations. Finally, Nouwens speaks to how China's participation and actions this year differed from previous years and what messages China may have been conveying regarding its approach to global security going forward. Meia Nouwens is a senior fellow for Chinese Security and Defense Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).  Her expertise lies in Chinese cross-service defense analysis, China's defense industry and innovation, as well as China's regional strategic affairs and international relations. She leads IISS research on China's Digital Silk Road and was a co-lead of the China Security Project with the Mercator Institute for China Studies. Prior to commencing at IISS, she worked for the European External Action Service as a policy officer in Taipei, and as a trade analyst in the EU's delegation to New Zealand. Meia holds a BA Hons in international relations and political science from Macquarie University, a master's in international relations and diplomacy from Leiden University in conjunction with the Clingendael Institute, and an MPhil in modern Chinese studies from the University of Oxford and Peking University.

In this episode of the ChinaPower podcast, Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro joins us to discuss her new book, Upstart, which provides a fresh perspective on China's rise to great power status. Dr. Mastro analyzes China's innovative buildup of power over the past 30 years through three distinct approaches: emulation, exploitation, and entrepreneurship. Dr. Mastro explores ways China has mirrored U.S. activities, capitalized on U.S. blind spots, and embraced innovative approaches. Dr. Mastro argues that the Upstart lens allows us to better understand Chinese strategic calculations. Finally, Dr. Mastro explains her recommendations to US policy makers, such as increasing U.S. “entrepreneurship” with respect to disputes in the South China Sea, and provides her predictions for China's approach in the coming decade. Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Courtesy Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. She is also a nonresident scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve at the Pentagon. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016 and 2022 (FGO). She has published widely, including in International Security, Security Studies, Foreign Affairs, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, the Economist and the New York Times. 

In this episode of the China Power Podcast, Dr. Lauren Dickey joins us to discuss Taiwan's upcoming inauguration of president-elect William Lai. Dr. Dickey dives into her predictions for Lai's presidency and potential responses in the coming months from Beijing. She discusses what she thinks will be a continuation from Lai of his predecessor's pragmatic approach in cross-Strait relations and that he will continue to seek stable footing with Beijing. Further, given the number of domestic issues China must currently content with, Dr. Dickey explains it is unlikely China will make any majors moves towards a large-scale conflict in the near future; rather, she predicts Beijing will likely respond to the inauguration with familiar grey zone activity towards Taiwan. Dr. Dickey speaks to the divided legislature that Lai will face, explaining he will likely have to facilitate certain trade-offs with the KMT in order to ensure legislation is passed. Finally, she gives her prediction for the Lai administration's defense priorities and what that will mean for the US-Taiwan defense relationship. Dr. Lauren Dickey is currently the senior manager for geopolitical intelligence at Harman International Industries and a non-resident senior associate to the CSIS China Power Project. Previously, Lauren served as the senior advisor and acting director for Taiwan policy in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).  In this capacity, she led the development and implementation of all elements of the U.S.-Taiwan defense relationship for the DoD.  Prior to her position in the DoD, Lauren was a research scientist focused on Chinese military issues and China's evolving presence in the Indo-Pacific at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Joel Wuthnow joins us to discuss China's recent restructuring of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and particularly the disbanding of its Strategic Support Force and establishment of a new Information Support Force. Dr. Wuthnow explains the major organizational changes involved and how the new force fits into China's overall military structure. He argues that while the PLA has long recognized the importance of dominating the information domain, this move suggests dissatisfaction with the previous organizational structure and its ability to effectively integrate capabilities for modern information warfare. He explains that these reforms do not indicate an acceleration of China's military modernization goals or a shift towards a more offensive posture. Finally, Dr. Wuthnow shares his expectations for changes and priorities that may take shape for the PLA in the future. Dr. Wuthnow is a senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. Dr. Wuthnow also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Leta Hong Fincher joins us to discuss the legal and social status of women in China. Dr. Fincher, who has written widely on gender issues in the PRC, reviews the history of Chinese marriage and divorce policies with an eye towards China's contemporary feminist movements. She speaks to how the privatization of housing in the 1990s led to widening gender income gaps and the way women are increasingly discriminated against in the workplace. She highlights, amidst China's ongoing demographic struggles, the plight of so-called “leftover women,” or sheng nu, who are faced with growing government and societal pressure to marry and start families. Dr. Fincher concludes by discussing the future of feminism in China, emphasizing the resilience and popularity of feminist movements despite the challenges they have faced. Dr. Leta Hong Fincher is a journalist and research associate at Columbia University's Weatherhead East Asian Institute. A sociologist by trade, she focuses on feminist issues in China and has published two books on this subject – Betraying Big Brother: The Feminist Awakening in China (2018) and Leftover Women: The Resurgence of Gender Inequality in China (2014, with a recently-published 10-year edition). Dr. Fincher is fluent in Mandarin and was the first American to receive a PhD in sociology from Beijing's Tsinghua University. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Zhao Hai joins us to discuss China's views on the Russia-Ukraine war and its broader implications for China. Dr. Zhao provides an assessment of how he thinks China perceives the evolving situation on the ground, emphasizing China's concerns about the risk of further escalation between Russia and the West, potentially involving the use of nuclear weapons. He argues that the Ukraine crisis has heightened U.S.-Russia competition and speaks to how China views the conflict as a sign of the world order shifting towards one of multi-polarity. He also shared his assessment of the United States engaging in enhanced proxy warfare in Ukraine that could be used in the Indo-Pacific in the future.   Dr. Zhao is the director of the International Politics Program at the National Institute for Global Strategy and research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Before joining CASS, he was a research fellow at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University. His research interests are Sino-US strategic relations, geopolitics in East Asia, and international security cooperation. Dr. Zhao holds a PhD in international history from the University of Chicago and a Master's degree in Asia-Pacific Studies from Peking University. The views he shared on the podcast were his personal views. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Steve Tsang joins us to discuss his new book The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, coauthored with Dr. Olivia Cheung. Dr. Tsang explains that Xi Jinping thought is vastly different from the thought and practices of his predecessors, such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Core to Xi Jinping thought is the desire to achieve China's national rejuvenation and the embracement of the “Tian Xia” concept of Chinese hegemony. Dr. Tsang points out that Xi seeks to position China in a more prominent role on the world stage. Dr. Tsang highlights that through Xi's efforts to centralize the Communist Party under his control and to create an alternative to the US-led international order, Xi aims to reshape policy both within China and abroad. Finally, Dr. Tsang shares his thoughts on how best to deter Xi Jinping.   Dr. Steve Tsang is Professor of China Studies and Director of the China Institute, SOAS, London. He is also a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and an Emeritus Fellow of St Antony's College at Oxford. He previously served as the Head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies and as Director of the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham. Before that he spent 29 years at Oxford University, where he earned his D.Phil. and worked as a Professorial Fellow, Dean, and Director of the Asian Studies Centre at St Antony's College. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens joins us to discuss one of President Xi Jinping's signature priorities: China's national security. She delves into Xi's “Comprehensive National Security concept,” emphasizing its broad scope with over 20 different components, covering everything from border security to food security. Dr. Greitens discusses Xi Jinping's preventive rather than reactive approach to security threats, in an attempt to treat what the CCP views as root causes to security issues rather than just the symptoms. Finally, Dr. Greitens explains how China's views of national security influences how it exerts control at home and uses force abroad.  Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, where she directs UT's Asia Policy Program. Her research focuses on security, authoritarian politics, foreign policy, and East Asia. Currently, Dr. Greitens is on leave to serve as a Visiting Associate Professor of Research in Indo-Pacific Security at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. She is also concurrently a Nonresident Scholar with the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Tuvia Gering joins us to discuss China's strategy in the context of the Israel-Hamas war and the Red Sea crisis. He dissects the different views within China and the role China has played in both. He shares that China blames the United States for the war and that the PRC response to the region is informed by China's desire to push back against the Western-led world order. Mr. Gering also discusses the politics behind the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the economic ramifications that have followed. Overall, China's responses to both crises have been high on rhetoric and low on action. Finally, Mr. Gering warns of the possibility of broader escalation in the Middle east and the low likelihood of Chinese willingness to work with the United States.   Tuvia Gering is a nonresident fellow in the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, a researcher at the Diane & Guilford Glazer Foundation Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and a Tikvah Fund's Krauthammer fellow based in Jerusalem and specializing in Chinese security and foreign policy. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Israeli Chinese Media Center. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Matthew P. Funaiole and Mr. Brian Hart join us to discuss the work of Hidden Reach, a special initiative focused on analyzing China's growing influence abroad. Ranging from China's use of civilian research vessels to collection intelligence to its construction of ground stations in South America, Hidden Reach's analysis explores “blind spots” that US media and policy have often overlooked. Funaiole and Hart discuss the key role that satellite imagery plays in open-source intelligence to tell the story of China's expanding global influence and its implications. They dive into Hidden Reach's existing work, with an eye towards future projects and the overarching goals of the initiative. Matthew P. Funaiole is vice president of iDeas Lab, Andreas C. Dracopoulos Chair in Innovation and senior fellow of China Power Project at the CSIS. He specializes in using data-driven research to unpack complex policy issues, specifically those related to Chinese foreign and security policy, cross-Strait relations, and maritime trade. From late 2015 through mid-2020, he was the principal researcher for the ChinaPower website. Prior to joining CSIS, Dr. Funaiole taught international relations and foreign policy analysis at the University of Saint Andrews in Scotland, where he also completed his doctoral research. Brian Hart is a fellow with the China Power Project at CSIS and helps to lead Hidden Reach. Brian's research focuses primarily on Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military modernization, U.S.-China relations, and Taiwan security issues. Prior to joining the China Power Project, he conducted research for the Project 2049 Institute, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, and Trivium China. Brian earned his MA with honors in China studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and he received a graduate certificate in China studies from the SAIS Hopkins-Nanjing Center. He also received a BA with honors in politics and international affairs from Wake Forest University, where he graduated magna cum laude.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Hans Kristensen joins us to unravel the complexity of China's expanding nuclear capabilities. Mr. Kristensen compares the composition of China's nuclear stockpile to its global counterparts and analyzes China's ongoing modernization campaign of its nuclear force in detail. Mr. Kristensen addresses the uncertainties surrounding China's nuclear program and strategy, in particular the credibility of China's long-held “no first use” policy. He dives into China's potential escalation scenarios in the region and concludes by pointing out that he believes China could seek a nuclear war-fighting capability.  Mr. Hans M. Kristensen is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, where he provides the public with analysis and background information about the status of nuclear forces and the role of nuclear weapons. Kristensen is co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World Nuclear Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook. A leading expert on global nuclear weapon issues, Kristensen previously had a career spanning Greenpeace International, the Nautilus Institute, and the Natural Resources Defense Council. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Elbridge Colby joins us to discuss U.S. strategic competition with China. Mr. Colby stresses that he is most worried about the PRC military threat. He advocates focusing on Taiwan as a principal flashpoint and says the United States should “speak softly and carry a big stick” by equipping allies for military deterrence rather than focusing exclusively on economic deterrence. Colby further discusses the Biden administration's approach, emphasizing that the United States should focus more carefully on not appearing to contain China.  He also shares that there is consensus among Republicans that China is a central challenge to the United States but there are debates within the party as to how much the U.S. should focus on China. He concludes by advocating for a shift towards prioritizing the PRC, both in terms of force planning and relationships with allies in the region. Elbridge A. Colby is the founder of the Marathon Initiative, a nonprofit that focuses on American preparedness for great power competition. He is also former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Strategy and Force Development at the Department of Defense during the Trump administration and was the co-lead for the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy.  An expert on the challenges of strategic competition, Colby is also the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict. This podcast was recorded on January 10, 2024.

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China's power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024. For this debate, the proposition is “China's accelerated expansion of its nuclear arsenal represents a shift in China's nuclear strategy and doctrine.” Arguing for this proposition is Dr. Tong Zhao, who is a senior fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Fiona Cunningham who is an assistant Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China's power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024.  For this debate, the proposition is “the United States and China are locked in a new cold war.” Arguing for this proposition is Dr. Michael Beckley, who is the director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, an associate professor at Tufts University, and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Arne Westad, who is a professor at the Jackson School of Global Affairs at Yale University.  To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China's power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024. For this debate, the proposition is “China is more likely to blockade Taiwan than invade the island in the next ten years” Arguing for this proposition is Mr. Lonnie Henley, who is a senior fellow for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Phil Saunders, who is the director of the Center for the Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China's power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January, 2024. For this discussion, the proposition is “Xi Jinping has signaled that reunification with Taiwan is a legacy issue that he must achieve during his term in office.” The first speaker for this discussion is Ms. Bonnie Glaser, who is the managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund. The second speaker is Mr. Chad Sbragia, who is a research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analysis and is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for China at the Department of Defense.  To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China's power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024. For the first debate, the proposition is “the United States and China are making progress in creating a “floor” in U.S.-China relations to manage tensions and crises.” Arguing for this proposition is Mr. Rick Waters who is the managing director of the China Practice at the Eurasia Group. Arguing against is Mr. Dan Blumenthal who is a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

This podcast episode is a joint and cross-over episode between the CSIS ChinaPower Podcast and the German Marshall Fund's China Global Podcast. We are joined by Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen to discuss their recently released article titled “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence.” The authors underline the article's key point, that assurances, alongside threats, are an integral part of effective deterrence. They emphasize that in order for deterrence to work, the threat of punishment must be not only credible but also conditional. Finally, the authors outline what actions each of the three actors- the U.S., China, and Taiwan- should take to effectively convey assurances to one another. Ms. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS. Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and U.S. policy for more than three decades. Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss is a professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of Government at Cornell University. She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford University. Formerly, Dr. Weiss served as senior advisor to the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department on a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars. Dr. Thomas Christensen is a professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and World Program at Columbia University. Prior to this, he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus is on China's foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Mr. July Amador to discuss the Philippines's view of the recent escalation of tensions in the South China Sea and China's behavior in the waters and beyond. Mr. Amador dives into China's coercive tactics in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal and its repeated violations of international law in those areas. He speaks to China's advantages in resources and the staying power it possesses, giving it an edge over the Philippines and other regional actors. Mr. Amador highlights the need for collective action by the international community to condemn China's actions and further bolster support and resources for the Philippines.  July Amador is executive director of the Philippine-American Educational Foundation. Previously, he was a civil servant in the Philippine government working on foreign affairs and national security. He continues to be active in Track 1.5 and Track 2 diplomacy and specializes on Philippine foreign policy and national security, US-Philippine alliance, and regional security.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Dawn Murphy to discuss China's engagement with the global south, particularly the Middle East. Murphy lays out drivers of China's engagement with the Middle East, which includes securing access to resources and markets and obtaining support for PRC policies. At the same time, China is building an alternative order in the Middle East, deepening relations with regional actors across the board. She argues that Beijing's approach towards the Israel-Hamas conflict is consistent with its prior positions on tensions in the region. She explains that despite China's growing influence in the region, it is not clear Beijing believes it can or should do more to end the Israel-Hamas conflict aside from facilitating dialogue among regional stakeholders. Beijing is unlikely to use its leverage to pressure Iran or other actors. Finally, she notes that China benefits from a stable and peaceful Middle East and there is potential for the United States and China to find common ground. Washington should understand the limits of Beijing's willingness to become involved. Dr. Dawn Murphy is the author of the book “China's Rise in the Global South: The Middle East, Africa, and Beijing's Alternative World Order.” Dr. Murphy is an associate professor of National Security Strategy at the U.S. National War College. She specializes in Chinese foreign policy and domestic politics and U.S.-China relations. Her research analyzes China's interests as a rising global power and its behavior towards the existing international order.