Podcasts about galip dalay

Following Israel's strikes on Iran on 13 June, and the subsequent sequence of retaliation and counter retaliation, fears are rising that the conflict could escalate.   In this special episode of Independent Thinking (an edited version of a live webinar) Galip Dalay joins a panel of experts to discuss strategic goals, the responses of the key regional and international actors, including the Gulf states and the US, and what if any viable diplomatic or military off-ramps exist to prevent a broader regional war. Read our latest: Trump must take control as Israel–Iran war threatens to escalate Iran–Israel conflict: Iran has run out of good options It's time to rethink the G7  Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Amanda Nunn. 'Independent Thinking' is an Indio Media production for Chatham House. Read the Summer issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) declared a cease-fire last month in its war with Turkey, opening the door to a possible peace agreement between the two sides. Some 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict, which has gone on for decades. A deal would be a major win for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan—but it's not at all clear he can pull it off. In fact, he seems to have undermined his own chances by imprisoning the leader of Turkey's political opposition, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, triggering widespread protests. On this episode of Counterpoint, we're posing the question: Can the Turkish-Kurdish peace process succeed? Making the case that it can succeed is Galip Dalay, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House and researcher at the University of Oxford's St. Antony's College. Taking a more pessimistic view is Arzu Yilmaz, an associate professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kurdistan Hewler in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan. Counterpoint is a production of Foreign Policy, in partnership with the Doha Forum. It is hosted by FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ziyaretini Türkçe duyurdu, Suriye'nin yeni Dışişleri Bakanı Esed Hasan Şeybani, Türkiye'ye ilk ziyaretini yapıyor. Öne çıkan başlık ne? Hangi konuda destek arayacak? Türkiye'nin öncelikleri ne? Chattam House kıdemli araştırmacısı Galip Dalay 5'te Beş'te yanıtlıyor.

Germany and France's foreign ministers visit Syria telling the new leadership that lifting sanctions will depend on how the country's political future develops. So what do both sides want from each other - and what divides them? In this Episode: Haid Haid, Syrian Columnist and Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House. Marie Forestier, Senior Adviser, European Institute of Peace. Galip Dalay, Non-resident Senior Fellow, Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Host: Neave Barker Connect with us:@AJEPodcasts on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook At Al Jazeera Podcasts, we want to hear from you, our listeners. So, please head to https://www.aljazeera.com/survey and tell us your thoughts about this show and other Al Jazeera podcasts. It only takes a few minutes!

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Soli Özel, a Professor of International Relations at Istanbul Kadir Has University, and Hürcan Aslı Aksoy, the Head of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. With them is Galip Dalay, a Senior Consulting Fellow with our Middle East and North Africa programme. Read our latest: Has David Cameron's return revitalised UK policy in the Middle East? Maduro is flouting his commitment to hold free elections in Venezuela. The US must respond – carefully Securitizing the Ethiopia–Sudan border: How cross-border conflict is shaping trade and the control of land  Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast

Blinken'ın Ortadoğu turu ABD Dışişleri Bakanı 4'üncü kez bölgede. İlk turlarda amaç neydi, neyi başardı, neyi başaramadı? Bu kez amacı ne? Başarılı olabilir mi? Oxford Üniversitesi ve Chattam House Araştırmacısı Galip Dalay 5'te Beş'te yanıtlıyor.

With Israeli forces stepping up their assault on the Gaza Strip and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continuing to ramp up his rhetoric against the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Ankara is nonetheless resisting calls to cut off vital oil deliveries to Israel. Supertankers continue to deliver oil to Israel from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Oil pipelines from Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan terminate at the Mediterranean harbour, making Turkey a key oil supplier for Israel."The bulk of Israeli oil needs come from either Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan," says analyst Mehmet Ogutcu of the London Energy Club."I think the latest figures show Azerbaijan provides around 40 percent of Israel's oil needs. It comes all the way to Ceyhan, and from Ceyhan, it's sent to an Israeli port where it's moved to one of the refineries," Ogutcu explains.But with the death toll mounting from Israel's invasion of Gaza, calls for Turkey to cut off oil deliveries are growing.Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, speaking with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara earlier this month, urged countries delivering oil to Israel to cut their supplies, a call Fidan ignored. Turkey, Iran put rivalries aside as Gaza conflict provides common groundDespite Erdogan ramping up his rhetoric against Israel, oil deliveries from Turkey to Israel continue to flow. And questions remain about how effective any embargo by Turkey would be."I don't think that Israel will suffer in any way because oil is plentiful in the world markets," points out Ogutcu. Even if Turkey were to cut off Israel's supply, "they can bring it from Brazil or Canada or from some of the African countries where they have good relations", he says."Israeli consumption, if I'm not mistaken, is around 225,000 barrels per day. That's not a significant amount. It can be easily secured either through long-term contracts or on the spot market," he adds.Talking toughBut Turkey has other ways of harming Israel if it wants to strike a blow."Turkey could stop the working of the Kurecik radar station in Malatya in Turkey, which is crucial to the Nato missile defense system, and as far we know, it also protects the airspace of Israel," says Ilhan Uzgel, an international relations expert and columnist for Turkey's Kisa Dalga news portal.So far Erdogan has not taken any of these options. "What he has to do is please his audience, so he makes tough statements," says Uzel. "It's not hurting anybody; in the end, it's just words." Turkey under fire after declaring Hamas a 'liberation' groupErdogan is continuing with his rhetoric against Israel, even describing Hamas as a liberation movement while personally attacking Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But the Turkish leader's actions remain more measured.Announcing the recall of Turkey's ambassador from Israel for consultations this month, Erdogan stressed that diplomatic relations with Israel would remain open and that Turkish efforts were continuing to seek the release of hostages held by Hamas."The rhetoric is harsh, but the concrete actions are not that harsh, at least in terms of the bilateral relationship," observes Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London."I think the idea is that if you burn bridges, you will not be able to play the diplomatic role as much as you hope to."Attempts at diplomacyOn Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Ankara for the first time since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. In a tacit acknowledgment of Turkey's efforts, Blinken said third-party countries were playing a role in securing the release of the hostages.Erdogan is expected to join Arab leaders for a summit in Riyadh to discuss the crisis. But Dalay warns there may be limits to Ankara's nuanced approach toward Israel. Links to Hamas complicate Turkey's rapprochement with Israel"If Turkey is convinced that actually the diplomatic track is not working and if other regional countries, not only Turkey, reach the same conclusion that Israel is not paying any attention to this diplomatic track or call for a ceasefire, then we might see – both at a regional level and a Turkey level – countries taking punitive action," Dalay warns.With Erdogan's large religious base at the forefront of growing protests against Israel, that will likely add pressure on the Turkish leader to take a harder stance if the violence continues.

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, September 6th, 2023. PUB MEMBERSHIP PLUG: Summer has been great here at CrossPolitic, and we want you to join us on this ride… First, we’re no longer calling it the Fight Laugh Feast club… it’s now called the Pub! Second, we are launching a new line of content, focused on family entertainment. We will have our new show “This America” and our exciting new “Rowdy Christian Guides” highlighting the practical guides to fun and godly life! Additionally, we will have the live streaming of our conferences, and our past conference talks, all bundled within our new polished Fight Laugh Feast App. Sign up today! Head on over to fightlaughfeast.com, and join the Pub! that’s fightlaughfeast.com. https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/putin-turkey-grain-deal/2023/09/04/id/1133111/ Putin Won't Renew Grain Deal Until the West Meets His Demands Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that a landmark deal allowing Ukraine to export grain safely through the Black Sea amid the war won’t be restored until the West meets Moscow's demands on its own agricultural exports. Ukraine and its Western allies have dismissed the Kremlin’s demands as a ploy to advance its own interests. Still, Putin's remarks dashed hopes that his talks with the Turkish President could revive an agreement seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Russia refused to extend the deal in July, complaining that a parallel agreement promising to remove obstacles to Russian exports of food and fertilizer hadn’t been honored. It said restrictions on shipping and insurance hampered its agricultural trade, though it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year. Putin reiterated those complaints Monday, while also telling reporters that if those commitments were honored, Russia could return to the deal “within days.” The Turkish President also expressed hope that a breakthrough could come soon. He said Turkey and the U.N. — which both brokered the original deal — have put together a new package of proposals to unblock the issue. “I believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time,” Erdogan said at the news conference held with Putin in the Russian resort of Sochi. Earlier, a German Foreign Minister lashed out, saying Putin's “game with the grain agreement is cynical.” A lot is riding on the negotiation. Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other goods that developing nations rely on. Data from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, which organized shipments under the deal, show that 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing nations, with the top destination being China. Grain prices shot up after Russia pulled out of the deal but have since fallen back, indicating that there isn't a big crunch in the market for the moment. But failure to revive the agreement will have “drastic impacts” in countries such as Somalia and Egypt that rely heavily on Black Sea grain, according to Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London. Russia may be hoping it can use its power over Ukraine’s Black Sea exports as a bargaining chip to reduce Western economic sanctions. https://dailycaller.com/2023/09/04/university-michigan-students-hotel-rooms-covid-19/ Major University will Kick Students out of Dorms if they Gev Covid-19 The University of Michigan (UM) is asking students who test positive for COVID-19 to get a hotel room in order to quarantine for five days, according to the university’s website. The university reminded students on Sept. 1 of the school’s rules surrounding COVID-19, suggesting if they are sick stay home, wear masks and get tested, according to the website. The university also asked students to create an “isolation plan” in case they contract COVID-19, noting that no students are allowed in the residence halls if they test positive. “This could include relocating to your permanent residence, staying with a nearby relative or friend, or finding a hotel space. Students in Michigan Housing must leave their residence halls during isolation, even if they are in a single room,” the website reads. The UM Department of Environment, Health & Safety (EHS) is supposed to get in touch with the students within 24 hours to discuss the “care and isolation options,” according to the website. If a student must pay for a hotel room, the university did not clarify on the website whether or not they will compensate the student. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/05/oil-prices-mixed-on-receding-support-from-chinas-steps-to-recovery.html Oil prices settle at 10-month high as Saudi, Russia extend supply cuts Oil prices rose a dollar a barrel on Tuesday to their highest since November, after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year, worrying investors about potential shortages during peak winter demand. Brent crude futures rose by $1.04, or 1.2%, to settle at $90.04 a barrel, closing above the $90 mark for the first time since November 16, 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October futures gained $1.14, or 1.3%, to settle at $86.69 a barrel, also a 10-month high. Investors had expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into October, but the three-month extension was unexpected. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would review the supply cuts monthly, and could modify them depending on market conditions. “With the production cut extended, we anticipate a market deficit of more than 1.5 million barrels per day in 4Q23,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a note to clients. UBS now expects Brent crude to rise to $95 a barrel by year-end. Reflecting concerns about the short-term market supply, front month Brent and WTI contracts were also trading at their steepest premium since November to later-dated prices. This structure, called backwardation, indicates tightening supply for prompt deliveries. Also supporting oil prices on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said it now sees the probability of a U.S. recession starting in the next 12 months at 15%, down from an earlier forecast of 20%. Along with the Saudi supply cuts, which began in July, prospects of the U.S. economy avoiding a hard recession have helped lift oil demand and prices in recent months. Both Brent and WTI futures have gained more than 20% since the end of June. In other news… have you guys been noticing Mcconell lately and his freezing episodes? https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/mcconnell-physician-says-no-evidence-seizures-stroke-second-freezing-episode McConnell physician says ‘no evidence’ of seizures or stroke after second freezing episode The attending physician of the Capitol is ruling out a seizure, stroke, or other movement disorder after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) had difficulty speaking during a press conference in Kentucky last week. “My examination of you following your August 30, 2023 brief episode included several medical evaluations: brain MRI imaging, EEG study and consultations with several neurologists for a comprehensive neurology assessment,” Dr. Brian P. Monahan said in a new letter released by McConnell's office. “There is no evidence that you have a seizure disorder or that you experienced a stroke, TIA or movement disorder such as Parkinson’s disease.” The incident occurred last Wednesday when a reporter in Covington, Kentucky, asked him about his political plans when his term is up in 2026. At first, the Senate Republican leader acknowledged the question but trailed off and stopped speaking. An aide stepped in and asked if he had heard the question. McConnell responded "yes" but continued to freeze. This prompted the aide to say, "We're going to need a minute." The senator appeared to regain his composure and then briefly answered two additional questions after aides stepped in to repeat questions from reporters and then led him away. In late July, the minority leader was briefly escorted from the Senate Republicans' weekly press conference after he froze in front of the cameras, the first such public incident. McConnell, 81, was hospitalized earlier this year after suffering a fall that required him to complete physical therapy. He experienced a concussion and a minor rib fracture that sidelined him from the Senate for nearly six weeks. Monahan last week attributed the most recent freezing episode to dehydration and lightheadedness related to his concussion but said he was "medically clear" to continue his duties as usual. The Republican leader's office also had attributed the two freezing moments to “lightheadedness." McConnell was previously hospitalized in 2019 after fracturing his shoulder from a fall on his patio at home. McConnell and the rest of the Senate returns to Washington Tuesday afternoon.

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, September 6th, 2023. PUB MEMBERSHIP PLUG: Summer has been great here at CrossPolitic, and we want you to join us on this ride… First, we’re no longer calling it the Fight Laugh Feast club… it’s now called the Pub! Second, we are launching a new line of content, focused on family entertainment. We will have our new show “This America” and our exciting new “Rowdy Christian Guides” highlighting the practical guides to fun and godly life! Additionally, we will have the live streaming of our conferences, and our past conference talks, all bundled within our new polished Fight Laugh Feast App. Sign up today! Head on over to fightlaughfeast.com, and join the Pub! that’s fightlaughfeast.com. https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/putin-turkey-grain-deal/2023/09/04/id/1133111/ Putin Won't Renew Grain Deal Until the West Meets His Demands Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that a landmark deal allowing Ukraine to export grain safely through the Black Sea amid the war won’t be restored until the West meets Moscow's demands on its own agricultural exports. Ukraine and its Western allies have dismissed the Kremlin’s demands as a ploy to advance its own interests. Still, Putin's remarks dashed hopes that his talks with the Turkish President could revive an agreement seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Russia refused to extend the deal in July, complaining that a parallel agreement promising to remove obstacles to Russian exports of food and fertilizer hadn’t been honored. It said restrictions on shipping and insurance hampered its agricultural trade, though it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year. Putin reiterated those complaints Monday, while also telling reporters that if those commitments were honored, Russia could return to the deal “within days.” The Turkish President also expressed hope that a breakthrough could come soon. He said Turkey and the U.N. — which both brokered the original deal — have put together a new package of proposals to unblock the issue. “I believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time,” Erdogan said at the news conference held with Putin in the Russian resort of Sochi. Earlier, a German Foreign Minister lashed out, saying Putin's “game with the grain agreement is cynical.” A lot is riding on the negotiation. Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other goods that developing nations rely on. Data from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, which organized shipments under the deal, show that 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing nations, with the top destination being China. Grain prices shot up after Russia pulled out of the deal but have since fallen back, indicating that there isn't a big crunch in the market for the moment. But failure to revive the agreement will have “drastic impacts” in countries such as Somalia and Egypt that rely heavily on Black Sea grain, according to Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London. Russia may be hoping it can use its power over Ukraine’s Black Sea exports as a bargaining chip to reduce Western economic sanctions. https://dailycaller.com/2023/09/04/university-michigan-students-hotel-rooms-covid-19/ Major University will Kick Students out of Dorms if they Gev Covid-19 The University of Michigan (UM) is asking students who test positive for COVID-19 to get a hotel room in order to quarantine for five days, according to the university’s website. The university reminded students on Sept. 1 of the school’s rules surrounding COVID-19, suggesting if they are sick stay home, wear masks and get tested, according to the website. The university also asked students to create an “isolation plan” in case they contract COVID-19, noting that no students are allowed in the residence halls if they test positive. “This could include relocating to your permanent residence, staying with a nearby relative or friend, or finding a hotel space. Students in Michigan Housing must leave their residence halls during isolation, even if they are in a single room,” the website reads. The UM Department of Environment, Health & Safety (EHS) is supposed to get in touch with the students within 24 hours to discuss the “care and isolation options,” according to the website. If a student must pay for a hotel room, the university did not clarify on the website whether or not they will compensate the student. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/05/oil-prices-mixed-on-receding-support-from-chinas-steps-to-recovery.html Oil prices settle at 10-month high as Saudi, Russia extend supply cuts Oil prices rose a dollar a barrel on Tuesday to their highest since November, after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year, worrying investors about potential shortages during peak winter demand. Brent crude futures rose by $1.04, or 1.2%, to settle at $90.04 a barrel, closing above the $90 mark for the first time since November 16, 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October futures gained $1.14, or 1.3%, to settle at $86.69 a barrel, also a 10-month high. Investors had expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into October, but the three-month extension was unexpected. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would review the supply cuts monthly, and could modify them depending on market conditions. “With the production cut extended, we anticipate a market deficit of more than 1.5 million barrels per day in 4Q23,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a note to clients. UBS now expects Brent crude to rise to $95 a barrel by year-end. Reflecting concerns about the short-term market supply, front month Brent and WTI contracts were also trading at their steepest premium since November to later-dated prices. This structure, called backwardation, indicates tightening supply for prompt deliveries. Also supporting oil prices on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said it now sees the probability of a U.S. recession starting in the next 12 months at 15%, down from an earlier forecast of 20%. Along with the Saudi supply cuts, which began in July, prospects of the U.S. economy avoiding a hard recession have helped lift oil demand and prices in recent months. Both Brent and WTI futures have gained more than 20% since the end of June. In other news… have you guys been noticing Mcconell lately and his freezing episodes? https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/mcconnell-physician-says-no-evidence-seizures-stroke-second-freezing-episode McConnell physician says ‘no evidence’ of seizures or stroke after second freezing episode The attending physician of the Capitol is ruling out a seizure, stroke, or other movement disorder after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) had difficulty speaking during a press conference in Kentucky last week. “My examination of you following your August 30, 2023 brief episode included several medical evaluations: brain MRI imaging, EEG study and consultations with several neurologists for a comprehensive neurology assessment,” Dr. Brian P. Monahan said in a new letter released by McConnell's office. “There is no evidence that you have a seizure disorder or that you experienced a stroke, TIA or movement disorder such as Parkinson’s disease.” The incident occurred last Wednesday when a reporter in Covington, Kentucky, asked him about his political plans when his term is up in 2026. At first, the Senate Republican leader acknowledged the question but trailed off and stopped speaking. An aide stepped in and asked if he had heard the question. McConnell responded "yes" but continued to freeze. This prompted the aide to say, "We're going to need a minute." The senator appeared to regain his composure and then briefly answered two additional questions after aides stepped in to repeat questions from reporters and then led him away. In late July, the minority leader was briefly escorted from the Senate Republicans' weekly press conference after he froze in front of the cameras, the first such public incident. McConnell, 81, was hospitalized earlier this year after suffering a fall that required him to complete physical therapy. He experienced a concussion and a minor rib fracture that sidelined him from the Senate for nearly six weeks. Monahan last week attributed the most recent freezing episode to dehydration and lightheadedness related to his concussion but said he was "medically clear" to continue his duties as usual. The Republican leader's office also had attributed the two freezing moments to “lightheadedness." McConnell was previously hospitalized in 2019 after fracturing his shoulder from a fall on his patio at home. McConnell and the rest of the Senate returns to Washington Tuesday afternoon.

On the podcast this week we discuss the fallout from the NATO Summit in Vilnius. Turkey cleared the way for Sweden to join the alliance this week, and across Vilnius there were signs aplenty calling for F-16s for Ukraine, and of course, NATO membership. We discuss what was agreed at the summit, what was deferred and what the NATO joint communique means for President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people. Also, on the show this week we discuss the European Union and its relations with countries eager to join, such as Ukraine and Turkey and one that's just left, namely the UK. Faced with the prospect of EU enlargement for the first time in over a decade, will Brussels and EU capitals be able to handle all the newcomers Joining Bronwen Maddox to help answer all these questions are Roland Oliphant, the Telegraph's senior foreign correspondent, Mariia Zolkina, the DINAM Fellow at the London School of Economics and Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow with our Middle East and North Africa programme.  Read our expertise: How to end Russia's war on Ukraine Ukraine is disappointed after the NATO summit – but not discouraged Divisions remain, but NATO is expanding. This will not sit comfortably in Moscow  Preparing NATO for climate-related security challenges Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Matthew Docherty and Abdul Boudiaf.

On the podcast this week we look at the outcome of the final round of Turkey's presidential election. Despite the polls showing him behind, and amid a devastating earthquake and an economy in crisis, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been re-elected as Turkey's president, winning by 52 per cent of the vote. In the last episode we covered what Erdoğan's re-election might mean for Turkey's fragile democracy and economy, this week we discuss what five more years of Erdoğan's foreign policy means for Ankara and for its relations with critical players like the US, NATO and Russia. Joining Leslie Vinjamuri on the show to discuss where Turkey may be heading are Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow Middle East and North Africa programme, Sinem Adar, an Associate Researcher for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and finally Dimitar Bechev, from the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies. Read our expertise: Turkey's politics on the cusp of generational change  Turkey's next leader may be pro-West but not anti-Russia Turkey at a crossroads Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on podcast we look at the fallout from the first round of Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections. President Erdogan is just a hair's breadth away from securing the 50% of the vote needed to become president. With Turkey set to enter a presidential run-off on 28 May we ask what this means for Turkey's fragile democracy? Has the opposition under Kilicdaroglu lost momentum? And what impact did issues such as identity politics, the economy, foreign policy, and the devastating earthquakes play in the election?  We also look more broadly to what the result means for Turkey's place in the world. With Turkey potentially about to enter a third decade of rule under Erdogan, where will this place Ankara's ties with Russia, Europe, and the United States? What does this mean for Sweden's entry into NATO? And what does the election result mean for the future of Turkey's fragile economy? Joining Bronwen Maddox on the show this week is Galip Dalay is an Associate Fellow with our MENA programme; Timothy Ash an Associate Fellow with our Russia, and Eurasia programme; Evren Balta, a Professor of International Relations at Özyeğin University and journalist Guney Yildiz, formerly with the BBC, but now with Cambridge University.  Read our expertise: Turkey's next leader may be pro-West but not anti-Russia Turkey elections: High stakes for democracy Turkey at a crossroads Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on the podcast we look at the latest developments relating to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO. This week the Hungarian parliament finally ratified Finland's membership to the alliance, two weeks after President Erdogan in Turkey gave his seal of approval following a meeting with the Finnish president. Sweden however remains trapped in limbo, with both Turkey and Hungary delaying Stockholm's membership and Erdogan in particular asking for more concessions. We discuss why Turkey and Hungary took issue with Sweden and Finland, what the strategic situation in the Baltic looks like now with only Finland in NATO, and the challenges facing Sweden amid fraught ties with President Erdogan? We also look ahead to Turkey's presidential election in May. Recent opinion polls point to a neck-and-neck race with some polls even showing President Erdogan falling behind the opposition. Turkish voters cast their votes on 14 May, so we discuss what the sentiment is like in Turkey ahead of the election, and how will the world respond to a potential change of power in Ankara for the first time in 20 years? Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast his week is Henri Vanhanen, a Research Fellow with Finnish Institute of International Affairs and Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow with our Middle East and North Africa Programme. Read our expertise: Russian nuclear intimidation The Abraham Accords and Israel–UAE normalization Russia's aggression and a crisis for multilateralism Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler

In Tigray, the world's largest armed conflict rages between Ethiopian federal government troops and the Tigray Defence Forces. With estimates placing those killed in the fighting at 600,000, how did Ethiopia, one of Africa's great success stories, descend into civil war, and what hopes are there for recent peace initiatives? Meanwhile in Ukraine, all eyes are on Zaporizhzhia, as Europe's largest nuclear plant continues to be occupied by Russian forces. With fresh reports of explosions near the dormant reactors, how is the international community responding? Finally, what role does Turkey, a middle power country with great power ambitions, surprisingly play in both conflicts? Joining guest host John Kampfner on the podcast this week are Dr Patricia Lewis, the Director of our International Security programme here at Chatham House, Ahmed Soliman, a Senior Research Fellow, on our Africa programme and Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow with our Middle East and North Africa programme. Read our expertise: Can Ethiopia avert deep turmoil and prioritize peace? Attacks on Ukraine nuclear plant – what's at stake? Ukraine's wider impact on Turkey's international future Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

The leaders of Turkey and Russia are continuing to deepen relations as Moscow intensifies its war against Ukraine. Their frequent meetings and close ties fuel concerns among Turkey's Western allies that Ankara is circumventing sanctions against Russia.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, last week for the fourth time in as many months.   Erdogan and Putin smiled and greeted one another with a warm handshake. Their latest encounter was on Thursday in Astana, Kazakhstan, on the sidelines of the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. Speaking to reporters afterwards, Erdogan said he wants to build on the success of a United Nations-brokered deal that allows Ukrainian grain blockaded by Russian naval forces to enter world markets.  First shipment of Ukrainian grain sets sail for Africa Ankara played a pivotal role in assisting the United Nations to broker the grain deal between Ukraine and Russia, known as the Istanbul agreement. "Turkey is determined to strengthen and continue the grain exports under the Istanbul agreement and the transfer of Russian grain and fertilizer to less developed countries via Turkey," Erdogan said. But Putin criticized the deal's implementation, claiming countries in need are not benefiting from the agreement.  The deal comes up for renewal next month. Turkish Russia analyst Galip Dalay of London's Chatham House says the Ukrainian grain deal is seen as a vindication by Erdogan of his policy of maintaining close ties with Putin. "The role Turkey can play is very much contingent upon having a working relationship with Russia. The Ukrainian grain deal is one of them. Turkey can play a more humanitarian role down the road or a more diplomatic role. All of them require Turkey to have some sort of functional relationship with Moscow as well," said Dalay. "So to some extent, it is it is accepted that Turkey is engaging in one way or another in some form of a balanced policy towards Russia and on the war. And I submit to some extent there are good outcomes that are coming out of these, such as the grain deals," he added. Sanctions-busting? Stressing the need to maintain close ties with Moscow, Ankara refuses to enforce Western sanctions against Russia. The European Union, in a report released last week, strongly criticized Ankara for not enforcing sanctions and warned that European companies could use Turkey to circumvent the restrictions. Washington has also voiced concern. Turkey's ambiguous application of United Nations' sanctions on Russia "There is great potential for development. Trade figures have increased," said Turkish analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners. "The potential stems from two factors. Obviously, for a lot of European companies, the legal way to bypass sanctions is to set up in Turkey and then to re-export through Turkey. And for Russian companies, of course, they can source from Turkey as well as possibly evade sanctions," Yesilada said.  "I'm not saying all trade is because of sanctions evasion, but the fact that there's deep animosity between Europe, the United States, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other hand, of course affects commercial relations and potentially Turkey could be the winner." 'Dividing Europe' Such complaints are likely to grow with Putin this week repeating a suggestion to use Turkey as a hub for distributing Russian gas that was originally intended for Europe. Erdogan on Friday confirmed that Turkey was ready to participate in the project. Ankara is trying to negotiate a cut-price gas deal from Moscow. [[[TEXT MISSING? says Putin is seeking to create divisions among his western adversaries and is finding a willing partner in Erdogan. Erdogan has not commented on the proposal. But with Ankara trying to negotiate a cut price gas deal from Moscow.]]] Erdogan tells government to start work on Russian gas hub "For Putin, the relationship with Turkey is important [because] it's about dividing Europe," said senior strategist Timothy Ash of Bluebay Asset Management. "Turkey is a key Nato member. The more he can pull Erdogan and Turkey away from the West, that's all the better. " "For Erdogan, he's got elections due by June of next year, and he's got a very difficult balance of payments issue. And he thinks by helping Russia get around sanctions, he thinks Turkey can earn key balance of payment receipts, and that will help," added Ash. Ankara denies it is sanctions-busting. But observers say Erdogan is walking an increasingly fine line by looking to keep close ties with Russia, knowing at the same time that his dealings with Moscow could trigger retaliation from the US and Europe in the form of secondary sanctions. 

Galip Dalay on his Middle East Council on Global Affairs paper “Turkey's Middle East Reset: A Precursor for Reescalation?” The piece looks at Ankara's bid to mend fences with previously bitter rivals including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel, the challenges it faces, and some of the exceptions. Become a member to support Turkey Book Talk. Members get a 35% discount on all Turkey/Ottoman History books published by IB Tauris/Bloomsbury, transcripts of every interview, transcripts of the whole archive, and over 200 reviews covering Turkish and international fiction, history and politics.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a strong opponent of the Syrian regime, says his country could be ready for dialogue with Damascus. It's a prospect that's causing alarm in the ranks of the Syrian opposition that relies heavily on Turkish support. Since the onset of the Syrian civil war, Erdogan routinely targeted his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al Assad as a tyrant, devil, and butcher, pledging that he would pay for what he calls his atrocities against his people.  But this month, Erdogan is singing a different tune. Referring to his nation's relations with the Syrian regime, the Turkish leader told reporters: "Political dialogue and diplomacy cannot be cut off between states."   Ankara severed its diplomatic ties with the Assad government at the start of the civil war. Erdogan has played a leading role in backing the opposition in its bid to oust Assad from power. But Turkey is now looking to return millions of Syrian refugees.  Talk of 'peace' Earlier this month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed he had recently held talks with his Syrian counterpart.  "I had a brief chat with the Syrian foreign minister on the sidelines of a meeting, telling him that Turkey believes there will be peace between the Assad regime and the opposition and that Turkey is ready to help in such circumstances," Cavusoglu said.  Syrian rebels angrily protested, burning Turkish flags as they got news of the discussion between the Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers.   "It's terrible news for the Syrian opposition," said Galip Dalay, a Turkey analyst at Chatham House.  "Because of the trouble they were facing, they were already more and more turning into Turkey's proxies, and now that will be basically the nail in the coffin of the Syrian opposition. "But some of the groups there might also be decoupling between Turkey and some of the Syrian opposition groups." Syrian Kurds Analysts say Erdogan could be looking for rapprochement with Damascus to get rid of Syrian Kurdish forces of the YPG from its border.  Ankara accuses the YPG of having links to an insurgency inside Turkey. "From our perspective, we need to feel secure definitely," said Omer Onhon, Turkey's last ambassador to Syria. Erdogan is also facing mounting public pressure over the millions of Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey. But Onhon says Ankara needs to be cautious in its dealings with Damascus. Kurdish PKK fighters may retreat to Iran as Turkish military closes in "We need to see that Syria is secure for the return of Syrians in Turkey and in other countries. So, the regime has to prove that they are sincere in seeking a real political solution. But up to now, this is not the case," said Onhon. But time may not be on Erdogan's side. He faces reelection next year and is languishing in the polls, with many voters citing the presence of Syrian refugees as one of his most significant election liabilities.  Moscow a player The hand of Moscow, which has long backed the Assad regime, could also be a factor in Erdogan's deliberations, says analyst Dalay. "This is precisely in line with the Russian vision of Syria," said Dalay.  "The core of it is that Turkey needs to engage Damascus. That the road to Turkey's concerns in Syria goes through Damascus, so that's the message that Putin and Russia have been sending to Turkey. "How Turkey will follow through is a big question because Turkey has a significant military presence there (Syria). How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before polls "So, Syria would insist on the withdrawal of the Turkish presence from Syria. And this is a very difficult position in terms of foreign and domestic policy. "  Assad has repeatedly called for the unconditional withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory — Ankara controls a large swathe of Syrian territory along the Turkish border, seized in its fight against the Kurdish YPG group.   It's a demand the Syrian president could make face-to-face with Erdogan in September when both leaders are invited to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. 

Galip Dalay and Hanna Notte discuss Turkey's geopolitical balancing act between the West and Russia, focusing on the cooperation and competition between Moscow and Ankara in such aspects as defense, energy, and conflict resolution.

Of all countries sitting on the fence and trying to mediate, Turkey has a unique profile and position. It is a NATO member, an organization for which Russia and previously the Soviet Union served as raison d'être or the foundational threat. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been increasingly castigating the Western-centric international system. But as a member of many Western institutions, Turkey is also a beneficiary, and in a sense, part of the geopolitical West. Meanwhile, Turkey also has maritime borders with both Ukraine and Russia. Plus, Turkey is Russia's largest trade partner in the Middle East and North Africa region. And it has competed and cooperated with Russia through conflict zones in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh in recent years. Compared to other contenders for mediation, Turkey has the highest stakes in this conflict. The war is fundamentally changing the geopolitics and balance of power in the Black Sea region, and Turkey is a major Black Sea power. That said, as the war drags on, Turkey's previous strategic juggling act may no longer be feasible, particularly as Russia is now more openly treated as an enemy of NATO and European security. Galip Dalay is CATS Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), an associate fellow at Chatham House, and doctoral researcher in the Faculty of History at the University of Oxford. Dalay's pieces and analysis have appeared on Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Project Syndicate, Newsweek, Le Monde, Al Jazeera, CNN, National Interest, Open Democracy, Middle East Eye and The World Politics Review. Gudrun Harrer, Senior Editor at Der Standard, Lecturer on Modern History and Politics of the Middle East, University of Vienna and Diplomatic Academy of Vienna A ZOOM Livetalk, recorded on April 21, 2022

Politik Akademi'nin 110. bölümüyle karşınızdayız. Bu haftaki sunucumuz Edgar Şar, konuğuysa Galip Dalay. Son dönemde üzerinde sıkça tartışılan, ülkemizi de yakından ilgilendiren bir konuyu tartışıyoruz. Avrasyacılık... İlgiyle izlemenizi umarız. ----------------------------- 00:00 Giriş 01:43 Rusya-Ukrayna savaşından sonra nasıl bloklaşma göreceğiz? 08:56 Türkiye-Rusya ilişkileri hangi zeminde, nasıl devam edecek? 12:42 Batıdaki aşırı sağcı partiler bu dönüşümden nasıl etkilenecek? 16:20 Yeni çatışma otokrasiler ve demokrasiler arasında mı olacak? 19:42 Türkiye Batı ile yeni bir başlangıç mı yapacak? 24:33 Kapanış

Rusya ve Ukrayna arasında yaşanan gerilim sürüyor. Ukrayna sınırında yaşanan gerilim bir sıcak çatışmaya döner mi? ABD ile Rusya, Ukrayna için karşı karşıya gelir mi? Gelirse, bu rekabetin sonuçları ne olur? Kazakistan'da yaşanan toplumsal ayaklanmalar bize ne gösterdi? Yeni bir dünya düzeni mi kuruluyor? Alphan Telek sordu, Galip Dalay sizler için yanıtladı.

Turkey's highly publicised arrest of alleged Iranian agents is the latest sign of growing tensions between the two neighbors, as Turkey expands its influence in the Caucasus region at Iran's expense. In October, Turkish security forces claimed to have arrested several Iranian agents who Ankara says were attempting to kidnap an Iranian dissident in the city of Van close to the Iranian border. Video of the arrests was widely distributed to the media, causing embarassment for Tehran.  The incident comes as Iran and Turkey are in a mounting power struggle in the Caucasus. Turkish and Israeli military hardware were vital to Azerbaijan's forces' ouster of the Armenian army last year from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave - a conflict that redrew the balance of power in the region at Iran's expense.  "Now the Israeli-Azerbaijani ties are closer ... there is a new geopolitical reality in the south Caucasus in which Iran's role has been downsized," said Galip Dalay of the London-based Chatham House, "In contrast, the Turkish role has increased, and Russia has asserted its primacy; all of them are the factors that very much make Iran unhappy," added Dalay.  Pressure on Azerbaijan Iran is now pushing back along with stepping up diplomatic efforts. Iran's foreign minister held talks with his Armenian counterpart In October. While the same month, Tehran flexed its military muscles carrying out army exercises, for the first time in decades, on the Azeri border. "Now, Iran is putting pressure on Azerbaijan," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Director of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara. "Diplomatic ties between Iran, Armenia, and Russia regarding the Caucasus are getting closer. Iran is organizing, is holding military exercises right next to its border with Azerbaijan. So, it can be said that there is tension in the region that will be durable in the long run," added Unluhisarcikli. Iran's hardball tactics However, Iran's hardball tactics may have backfired, only strengthening Turkey's hand in the region. In a show of support, the Turkish military held joint exercises with Azeri forces close to the Iranian border after Tehran's show of force, underscoring some analysts say how important Ankara is to Baku. "Definitely, definitely Turkey became much more important for Azerbaijan for the Azeris perception of its own security after the Iranian drills on its border," claims Zaur Gasimov, an expert on the Caucasus at Germany's Bonn University.  "Definitely, Turkey is among the benefices of the situation after the Iranian military drills," added Gasimov. "So I would say the cooperation between Ankara and Baku became much more essential at least for Baku." Turkey's deepening military ties with Iran's eastern neighbor Pakistan also adds to Tehran's unease, says Gasimov, by stoking sectarian tensions. Turkey and Pakistan are Sunni Muslim countries and Iran is Shia.   "Tehran observes the deepening of the cooperation in security and military between Pakistan and Turkey, as well as between Turkey and Azerbaijan and Pakistan, with concern, because the perception of the dynamics of regional politics in the greater Middle East takes place in Iran within the framework of sectarianism and the Shia perception," Gasimov said. "So in Iran's world view, the cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey is the cooperation between two Sunni societies. So this perceive this as a threat, this is a very important issue for the Iranian clergy," But Iran's crisis-ridden economy depends on trade with Turkey, which analysts say, allows Ankara to take a robust stance against Tehran.  

Turkey is threatening to launch a military operation against Syrian Kurdish forces after a deadly attack in Syrian territory where Turkish forces are present. Last month's deadly car bombing in the Turkish-controlled Syrian Afrin region saw Ankara blaming the Syrian Kurdish group YPG. Turkish forces, along with Syrian rebels, ousted the YPG from the area three years ago. The Kurdish group has been waging a guerrilla campaign against the Turkish troops and their Syrian rebel allies.  But in an address to the country, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had reached his limit. "The latest attacks against our police and the aggressions against our country were the last drop. We will take the necessary measures to solve this issue as soon as possible," Erdogan said. Turkey accuses the YPG of having links to Kurdish separatists the PKK fighting in Turkish territory since the 1980s. But the YPG denies any links to the PKK.  Erdogan says Turkish forces and Syrian rebels backed by Turkey will seek to oust the YPG from the strategic town of Tell Rifaat. Ankara believes that is the launchpad of the Kurdish group's attacks against Turkish forces in Syria.  Russian presence But Russian forces control Tell Rifaat, along with the airspace. "If Tell Riffaat will be the focus of the operation, Russian cooperation, or let's say Russian facilitation, would be of utmost importance because Russia has air dominance in the area," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of George Marshall Fund office in Ankara. "Because the area of Tell Rifaat is not close to the Turkish border, and any operation would be very difficult without Russian approval."  Ankara has long sought Tell Rifaat, as it would link the three areas of Syria under Turkish military control. But the Syrian town is a vital transportation hub and close to Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo.  Moscow is predicted to be wary of giving Ankara such a valuable prize.  "I think Russia is at least resisting it [Turkish military operation], but everything is possible," said Galip Dalay, associate fellow at Chatham House in London. "Russia will drive a hard bargain, and at the end of this hard bargain, this process will involve many give-and-takes," Dalay added. "If Russia thinks it will get something significant in return, then yes, it's a possibility; in the end, let's not forget, two out of three Turkish operations into Syria were facilitated by Russia."  Elections The United States backs the YPG in its war against the Islamic State group. Thus, any Turkish operation against the Kurdish group could further strain already complicated relations between Turkey and the US.  But Turkey is to hold presidential elections by 2023, and that could factor into Erdogan's calculations. "Erdogan is in an election year, and the central bank reserves are empty," said Aydin Selcen, a columnist for the Duvar News portal. "Either the diplomatic and the real cost of any move or any new military operation in Syria will be considered as exorbitant," added Selcen. "Or maybe such a story will be needed in this election year as a propaganda tool."  Erdogan rarely makes empty threats, given Turkish forces have already carried out three primary Syrian military operations. Still, this latest proposed operation could prove to be the Turkish president's biggest gamble.

Politik Akademi'nin 92. bölümünde Edgar Şar, konuğu Oxford Üniversitesi'nde araştırmacı Galip Dalay ile Türkiye'nin Batı'yla ilişkilerinin geleceğini konuştu.

After hitting all-time lows, relations between Turkey and the United States have been on the mend since June, when Turkey offered to take up a security role in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. Now US diplomats are calling Turkey “an invaluable partner in the region”. This, after years of mistrust due to the US refusal to sell its air defence system to Turkey which led to the purchase of a similar system from Moscow and Washington's support for Kurdish fighters in Syria. Join Steve Clemons as he asks Turkey experts Galip Dalay and Howard Eissenstat about the future of Turkey-US relations.

Türkiye, stratejik açıdan kendisi için çok önem arz etmese de Afganistan konusunda rol oynamaya talip ve bunun için Taliban ile iyi ilişkiler kurmaya çalışıyor. Öte yandan Afganistan'dan, İran üzerinden mülteci akınının artarak sürmesi bekleniyor. Bu kişilerin kendi topraklarına gelmemesi için Batılı ülkelerin Ankara'ya bel bağladığı biliniyor. Ruşen Çakır yeni dönemde yaşanabilecekleri Galip Dalay ile konuştu.

Medyascope yayınında Edgar Şar, konuğu Galip Dalay ile Perspektif.Online'da yayınlanan yazısı üzerinden “beka düzeni”nin çözülüşünü ve yerine neyin geleceğini konuştu.

Yaklaşan yeni "Soğuk Savaş" ve Türkiye - Galip Dalay ve Ruşen Çakır tartışıyor by Medyascope

Elif Çakır ve Yıldıray Oğur'un gündemin nabzını tuttuğu Bi' Karar Ver programına, haftanın ikinci günü KARAR Gazetesi yazarı Galip Dalay konuk oldu. Dalay, dün Brüksel'de gerçekleşen Erdoğan- Biden görüşmesini ele aldı ve S-400 konusuna değindi. Dalay, Türkiye'nin S-400'den geri adı atmasının zor olduğunu söyledi: Türkiye S-400 konusunda belli adımlar atmak istiyor ama Amerika'nın istediği adımları atmak istemiyor. Türkiye bu konuda bu konuda bir ara formül bulma arayışında.

Rusya ve Ukrayna arasında yaşanan gerilimi tarihsel sürecinden başlayarak konuştuk. Ukrayna ve Rusya neden karşı karşıya? Rusya'nın asıl amacı ne? NATO, Ukrayna için ne anlam ifade ediyor? Suriye denklemi nasıl etkilenecek? Ukrayna ve Rusya arasında NATO müttefiki olarak Türkiye. Chatham House araştırmacısı ve Oxford'da doktora çalışmalarını sürdüren Galip Dalay ile bütün detayları konuştuk. İyi dinlemeler.

Bugünkü yayınımızda Brookings Ensititüsü araştırmacısı ve Robert Bosch Akademisi üyesi Galip Dalay ile Ortadoğu'da iki farklı kutbu temsil eden Türkiye ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri'nin gelecek vizyonlarını ele aldık.  Keyifli Dinlemeler!