Podcasts about shanghai cooperation organisation

In the past decade, China has ramped up its engagement in the Middle East, a region which is far from China geographically, but carries growing importance in China's foreign policy. Economically, China is the biggest importer of the Middle East oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Chinese state-owned enterprises have invested heavily in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative with an emphasis on physical and digital infrastructure, including telecommunications, 5G connectivity, submarine optic cables, and security information systems.  Diplomatically, China played a role in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two longstanding regional rivals. Beijing has also been instrumental in expanding the BRICS multilateral mechanism to include four Middle East countries. Securing access to vital natural resources is a key driver of Beijing's intensified engagement in the Middle East. But China's interests are broader and encompass economic, geopolitical and strategic considerations.To further discuss China's interests and evolving role in the Middle East, Michael Schuman joins host Bonnie Glaser. Michael is a nonresident senior fellow at the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council and an author and journalist with more than 25 years of on-the-ground experience in Asia.  He is the co-author of a recently published report by the Atlantic Council titled China's Middle East policy shift from ‘hedging' to ‘wedging.' Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:06] China's Interest in the Middle East[04:23] Evaluating China's Strategy of “Wedging” [06:51] Evaluating China's Position of Neutrality[10:17] Factors Driving China's Middle Eastern Strategy [13:46] Chinese Bilateral and Multilateral Engagement [16:08] China's Energy Ties with the Middle East[19:41] Implications for the United States[24:19] Limits to Chinese Engagement 

China's push to revise the international security order entered a new phase with the launch of the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022. A few months after Xi Jinping proposed GSI, host Bonnie Glaser did a podcast episode with Manoj Kewalramani to discuss the drivers behind GSI and analyze the initial statements outlining its content. More than 2 ½ years have elapsed since then, and scholars have begun to investigate how China is implementing GSI in various regions around the world. A new report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) examines how GSI is being operationalized and received in two priority regions of Chinese foreign policy: mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The study draws on field research in both regions. The report is titled “China's Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia.” The report has three authors: Bates Gill, Carla Freeman and Alison McFarland. Bonnie Glaser is joined by Bates Gill for this episode to discuss the report's findings. Bates is a senior fellow with the National Bureau of Asian Research, a Senior Associate Fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, and associated with USIP.Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:53] Objectives of China's Global Security Initiative [04:22] GSI as an Additive or a Replacement[07:21] Fieldwork in Southeast and Central Asia[12:06] Concerns about China's Intentions and Influence[15:24] GSI Initiatives and Sources of Funding[19:58] GSI and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation[23:55] Moscow's View of GSI [29:27] Implications of GSI for the United States

A letter from the US gives Israel 30 days to boost humanitarian-aid access to Gaza, we ask: how big is the difference in tone of public and private diplomacy? Also in the programme: we reflect on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Islamabad and assess the latest cuts to the BBC. Plus: a Californian university has a new graduation requirement – a course on climate change.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is the Catchup on 3 Things by The Indian Express and I'm Flora Swain.Today is the 16th of October and here are the headlines.In a thinly veiled reference to China and Pakistan, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar today said that that “if trust is lacking or cooperation inadequate, if friendship has fallen short and good neighbourliness is missing somewhere, there are surely reasons to introspect and causes to address.” Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation heads of government meeting in Islamabad, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar listed out the key challenges that SCO was committed to combatting: terrorism, separatism, and extremism.Bomb threats to flights of Indian airlines continued on Wednesday with at least six flights — three of IndiGo, two of SpiceJet and one of Akasa Air — being the latest additions to the growing list. With these six flights, the number of confirmed instances of bomb threats to Indian carrier's flights over the past three days has risen to 18. Three international flights – one of Air India and two of IndiGo – had received bomb threats on Monday, while another nine flights spanning across all major carriers had received threats on Tuesday. All the threats on Monday and Tuesday came via social media platforms, and eventually turned out to be fake.National Conference vice-president Omar Abdullah took oath as the first Chief Minister of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmirtoda. He has sought to balance political representation for both provinces of the UT with his five Cabinet picks. In his first comments after taking oath, the Chief Minister said, “We will not let Jammu feel that they do not have a voice or representation in the current government. We have brought in a Deputy CM to ensure this and this will be our endeavour going forth as well.” Nowshera MLA Surinder Choudhary took oath as Deputy CM.In the wake of an ongoing investigation against Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah over alleged irregularities in the grant of land, Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA) chairman K Marigowda resigned today. In his resignation letter to the Urban Development Department, Marigowda said that it was his personal decision to resign and cited health reasons. Later while speaking to reporters, Marigowda said he was asked by Siddaramaiah to resign from the post.A devastating accident involving a fuel tanker occurred late Tuesday night in Majia, a town located in the Taura local government area of Jigawa State, resulting in at least 94 fatalities and injuring 50 others. The police confirmed the incident today, highlighting the tragic circumstances that unfolded when the driver lost control of the vehicle.This was the Catch Up on 3 Things by The Indian Express.

From the BBC World Service: Leaders and officials from India, Pakistan, China and other countries in the region will meet in Islamabad during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit to discuss how to boost their security, cooperation and economic ties. Then, competition from China and tariffs on Chinese-made cars take centerstage at the Paris Motor Show. And as some content becomes unavailable on streaming platforms, should we just buy more physical media?

From the BBC World Service: Leaders and officials from India, Pakistan, China and other countries in the region will meet in Islamabad during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit to discuss how to boost their security, cooperation and economic ties. Then, competition from China and tariffs on Chinese-made cars take centerstage at the Paris Motor Show. And as some content becomes unavailable on streaming platforms, should we just buy more physical media?

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Founded in 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic, and security forum led by Russia and China. And on July 4, 2024, the 24th summit of the SCO was convened in Astana, Kazakhstan. The summit resulted in the Astana Declaration that reaffirmed cooperation among the member states. This year's summit was particularly notable due to Belarus's accession as the SCO's first European member state and the tenth member of the SCO. The continuous enlargement of the SCO seems indicative of the organization's shifting role, evolving from a regional cooperative forum to a broader, perhaps counter-western bloc. This episode will focus on China's strategy in the SCO, its intentions, and its objectives. Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Eva Seiwert, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). Her research interests include China-Russia relations, China's central Asian relations, and China's behavior in international organizations.  Timestamps[01:39] Shifting Focus of the SCO[03:32] Enlargement of the SCO[05:25] SCO and China's Foreign Policy[07:22] July 2024 SCO Summit[09:46] Implementation of Agreements[11:38] Sino-Russian Sideline Meeting[13:09] Sino-Russian Competition or Coordination[15:14] Sino-Belarussian Joint Military Drill[16:56] SCO and the War in Ukraine[19:04] Controversial Issues in the SCO[20:26] Tensions Between China and India[21:29] New SCO Member States[23:07] SCO and Chinese Institution Building [25:40] The impact of SCO: Why does it matter?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBefore we start a quick heads up: there's a word on uranium - it looks like it has put in an interim top - the tax loss trades and the Moneta deal, which closed yesterday, at the end of today's piece. And my lecture with funny bits is this Wednesday and Thursday, Feb 14th and 15th, at the Museum of Comedy in London. Come on down. It's both fun and interesting.But, first, never mind the Tucker Carlson-Vladimir Putin interview, here is a very interesting geo-political development: a step towards the remonetisation of gold …Russia has been buying military drones from Iran and it has been paying for them with gold. This story seems to have gone largely unnoticed, but for those of us interested in the developing narrative that is de-dollarisation, this story has ramifications. A quick word about gold and national currenciesWe all know gold retains its role as store of value - otherwise central banks would no longer keep it, nor would ETFs be a thing. This is never going to change, by the way. Gold has always been and will always be used as a store and display of value. But gold has never been much of a medium of exchange, except for high value transactions. This role usually fell to silver and other metals. Under the classical gold standards of the 19th century gold did find some use. The old pound coin - aka the sovereign - was 22 carat gold, for example, and national currencies were supposed to be interchangeable with gold. But any role gold had then has gone now. Except in extremis, such as in times of war, when gold finds function as a money of last resort, gold has not been used as currency, as a medium of exchange, for over a hundred years.The remonetisation of gold, and the inevitable resulting official upwards revaluation, as governments tie their currencies to it once again to shore up their value, has been the dream of many a gold bug for many a yearIn order to free themselves from the clutches of the US and its banking system, those countries that make up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (most of Asia) have long since wanted a settlement currency that is not the US dollar. The problem is what? Which national currency can the likes of China, India, Russia, Iran and the various stans all agree on and trust in?One possible solution is the internationally recognized money that is the shiny yellow stuff. Another is the rather less shiny, digital equivalent.That gold has been used to settle a large debt between two SCO nations is, therefore, a very significant development. It may just be an “extremis” case, resulting from sanctions on Iran and Russia. It may also be a step in the direction of remonetisation. Our misleading mediaFirst, let me clear up the fake news.I first spotted the story at Ross Norman's site Metals Daily and, with Ross's kind help,  have since done some digging.“Moscow paid billions in gold bullions to Iran for Shahed drones, leaked documents reveal” says the headline at Indian news site, First Post. “Leak reveals minister's claim that $1.75 billion contract was signed for 6,000 Shaheds and Kremlin ‘paid in literal gold'”, says the subtitle at the Telegraph. (Versions of this story are eyebrow-raisingly similar, leading me to think one has copied and pasted it from the other. But in doing so, with so little vetting, they have also copied and pasted what is misleading). Here is Andrew Buncombe in the Telegraph:‌”Moscow signed a $1.75 billion contract for 6,000 of the unmanned aerial vehicles from an offshoot of the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) last year, according to leaked documents posted online by a hacker group called the Prana Network.‌It reportedly paid in gold bullion, shipping more than two tonnes to the manufacturer Sahara Thunder.”The thing is - and what neither journalist appears to have noticed - is that two tonnes of gold do not amount to $1.75 billion. Two tonnes are around $130 million. Some digging leads us to Defence Blog (edit: this site has since gone down) and then the original source for the story, in Ukranian, at news agency Militarnyi. The short of it is that a group of hackers, Prana Network, infiltrated the emails of Iranian company “IRGC Sahara Thunder”. Moreover, the maths reported at the Telegraph and elswehere are out (I can talk). Russia, it seems has a licence to construct up to 6,000 drones using Iranian parts within 30 months at a price of around $193,000/unit, or $290,000 per unit when ordering 2,000. But, as reader L has pointed out, 6,000 units at $193,000/unit only equates to $1.16 billion. Only at $290,000/unit you arrive at the $1.75 billion figure. But the important takeaway is this. Russia has been conducting financial transactions and payments with Iran in gold. In February 2023, the Russian organization “Alabuga Machinery” transferred 2.06 tonnes of gold bars to Sahara Thunder. We presume this is as payment for services and goods.So the story is slightly different, but the point is the same. Russia and Iran have been using gold as currency.What else, one wonders, has Russia been using gold to buy? And off whom?The shortcomings of gold in international tradeTo use gold is a long-winded way of doing business. Gold is heavy. There are security issues. They will have had to fly it over. (The logistics of transporting gold are one reason bitcoin will probably win the battle to be the default settlement currency outside of the banking system).Under classical gold standards, gold ownership could be transferred without the gold ever having to leave the vaults of trusted banks in London, New York and Switzerland. But if the SCO is to start using gold as currency, it is going to need a trusted third party to hold the gold, to save constantly having to transport it. Of course, Shanghai will have a role in this. Singapore may as well. But I would have thought an extremely likely candidate to play the role of Switzerland will be the United Arab Emirates. It is already the world's second largest exporter. It's yet another reason to be long Dubai - as well as gold.If you are looking to buy gold in these uncertain times, let me recommend the Pure Gold Company, with whom I have an affiliation deal. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. More here.Don't forget my two shows next week on Feb 14th and 15th.If you would like to come, I have two pairs of tickets to give away to paying subscribers for February 14th - Valentine's Day. The first two people to email - they are yours. So to other business …

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comRussia has been buying military drones from Iran and it has been paying for them with gold. This story seems to have gone largely unnoticed, but for those of us interested in the developing narrative that is de-dollarisation, this story has ramifications. A quick word about gold and national currenciesWe all know gold retains its role as store of value - otherwise central banks would no longer keep it, nor would ETFs be a thing. This is never going to change, by the way. Gold has always been and will always be used as a store and display of value. But gold has never been much of a medium of exchange, except for high value transactions. This role usually fell to silver and other metals. Under the classical gold standards of the 19th century gold did find some use. The old pound coin - aka the sovereign - was 22 carat gold, for example, and national currencies were supposed to be interchangeable with gold. But any role gold had then has gone now. Except in extremis, such as in times of war, when gold finds function as a money of last resort, gold has not been used as currency, as a medium of exchange, for over a hundred years.The remonetisation of gold, and the inevitable resulting official upwards revaluation, as governments tie their currencies to it once again to shore up their value, has been the dream of many a gold bug for many a yearIn order to free themselves from the clutches of the US and its banking system, those countries that make up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (most of Asia) have long since wanted a settlement currency that is not the US dollar. The problem is what? Which national currency can the likes of China, India, Russia, Iran and the various stans all agree on and trust in?One possible solution is the internationally recognized money that is the shiny yellow stuff. Another is the rather less shiny, digital equivalent.That gold has been used to settle a large debt between two SCO nations is, therefore, a very significant development. It may just be an “extremis” case, resulting from sanctions on Iran and Russia. It may also be a step in the direction of remonetisation. Our misleading mediaFirst, let me clear up the fake news.I first spotted the story at Ross Norman's site Metals Daily and, with Ross's kind help,  have since done some digging.“Moscow paid billions in gold bullions to Iran for Shahed drones, leaked documents reveal” says the headline at Indian news site, First Post. “Leak reveals minister's claim that $1.75 billion contract was signed for 6,000 Shaheds and Kremlin ‘paid in literal gold'”, says the subtitle at the Telegraph. (Versions of this story are eyebrow-raisingly similar, leading me to think one has copied and pasted it from the other. But in doing so, with so little vetting, they have also copied and pasted what is misleading). Here is Andrew Buncombe in the Telegraph:‌”Moscow signed a $1.75 billion contract for 6,000 of the unmanned aerial vehicles from an offshoot of the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) last year, according to leaked documents posted online by a hacker group called the Prana Network.‌It reportedly paid in gold bullion, shipping more than two tonnes to the manufacturer Sahara Thunder.”The thing is - and what neither journalist appears to have noticed - is that two tonnes of gold do not amount to $1.75 billion. Two tonnes are around $130 million. Some digging leads us to Defence Blog (edit: this site has since gone down) and then the original source for the story, in Ukranian, at news agency Militarnyi. The short of it is that a group of hackers, Prana Network, infiltrated the emails of Iranian company “IRGC Sahara Thunder”. Moreover, the maths reported at the Telegraph and elswehere are out (I can talk). Russia, it seems has a licence to construct up to 6,000 drones using Iranian parts within 30 months at a price of around $193,000/unit, or $290,000 per unit when ordering 2,000. But, as reader L has pointed out, 6,000 units at $193,000/unit only equates to $1.16 billion. Only at $290,000/unit you arrive at the $1.75 billion figure. But the important takeaway is this. Russia has been conducting financial transactions and payments with Iran in gold. In February 2023, the Russian organization “Alabuga Machinery” transferred 2.06 tonnes of gold bars to Sahara Thunder. We presume this is as payment for services and goods.So the story is slightly different, but the point is the same. Russia and Iran have been using gold as currency.What else, one wonders, has Russia been using gold to buy? And off whom?The shortcomings of gold in international tradeTo use gold is a long-winded way of doing business. Gold is heavy. There are security issues. They will have had to fly it over. (The logistics of transporting gold are one reason bitcoin will probably win the battle to be the default settlement currency outside of the banking system).Under classical gold standards, gold ownership could be transferred without the gold ever having to leave the vaults of trusted banks in London, New York and Switzerland. But if the SCO is to start using gold as currency, it is going to need a trusted third party to hold the gold, to save constantly having to transport it. Of course, Shanghai will have a role in this. Singapore may as well. But I would have thought an extremely likely candidate to play the role of Switzerland will be the United Arab Emirates. It is already the world's second largest exporter. It's yet another reason to be long Dubai - as well as gold.If you are looking to buy gold in these uncertain times, let me recommend the Pure Gold Company, with whom I have an affiliation deal. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe, or you can store your gold with them. More here.Don't forget my two shows next week on Feb 14th and 15th.If you would like to come, I have two pairs of tickets to give away to paying subscribers for February 14th - Valentine's Day. The first two people to email - they are yours. So to other business …

Last year, WorldView came to you from Samarkand- and a grand summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation or SCO there with Putin, Xi, Sharif, Central Asian Leaders and Prime Minister Narendra Modi . This year, the comparison was stark- as India hosted its first SCO summit, online.  Read more here

First, Indian Express' Udit Misra tells us about a recent study that looked at how much the private sector has invested in the past 5 years, especially considering the incentives it has received from the government.Next, Indian Express' Associate Editor Shubhajit Roy talks about the highlights of the recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (15:28).And in the end, we give you a quick update about the recent developments in Manipur, and take a look back at the reasons why the violent conflict began in the state (23:50).Hosted by Shashank BhargavaWritten and produced by Shashank Bhargava, Rahel Philipose, and Utsa SarminEdited and mixed by Abhishek Kumar

In this latest Hindi Newsflash: Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney accused 'Voice to Parliament' opposers of spreading misinformation and creating a divide; In India, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation culminates e-meet with a commitment to tackle terrorism in a joint effort; Brazilian Women Football Squad arrives in Australia showing solidarity to Iranian women protestors and more.

In this episode, we talk about the violence in Manipur in the past few weeks, and the latest developments following Imran Khan's arrest in Islamabad. For 'Around Southasia in 5 minutes', we talk about the recently held Karnataka Assembly election and Adani Ports' recently completed sale of its port in Myanmar - at far below the value of the conglomerate's initial investment. We also talk about the impact of cyclone Mocha in Myanmar and Bangladesh, a string of high-profile arrests in Nepal in connection with what is being called the 'refugee scam', new statistics on rising poverty in Sri Lanka, and the recently held Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Goa. For 'Bookmarked', we talk about the movie 'Jinpa' by the renowned Tibetan filmmaker Pema Tseden, who passed away recently. Episode notes: Majoritarianism in Manipur https://www.himalmag.com/majoritarianism-in-manipur/ Politics and Pakistan's new army chief https://www.himalmag.com/himal-briefs-politics-pakistans-new-army-chief-2022/ Pakistan needs to go beyond the 18th amendment to end the military's role in politics https://www.himalmag.com/pakistan-military-beyond-18th-amendment-constitution-politics/ Adani in Southasia https://www.himalmag.com/adani-southasia-power-politics-diplomacy-myanmar-bangladesh-sri-lanka-india/ Jinpa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDOHE7PclZc This podcast episode is available on Soundcloud: https://on.soundcloud.com/hrX2i Spotify: https://spoti.fi/41RNCoU Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3MedZiK And Youtube: https://youtu.be/G-xlfYvyWgY

Ahead of its big summit in July, is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation setting itself up as a counter to the Western narrative in the world- or will bilateral ties like India's tensions with China over the boundary or India-Pakistan tensions over terrorism and Jammu and Kashmir overshadow multilateral talks?  Read more here

Listen to the latest SBS Hindi news from India. 05/05/2023

Lynne O'Donnell reports from Goa as the foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation nations meet. Plus: anti-mafia raids across Europe, a flick through today's papers and the latest theatre news. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the 22nd of April, Pakistan announced that its Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will visit India for a multilateral meeting with his Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, or SCO, counterparts. The visit by a Pakistani Foreign Minister to India comes after a long gap.  Also, on the 22nd of April, five Indian soldiers were killed close to the Line of Control, pointing out yet again the dangers of unabated terrorism in the country. The abrogation of Article 370 and reducing Jammu & Kashmir to a Union Territory in August 2019 has not helped in ending terrorism, belying the tall claims of the Modi government.  At the same time, Islamist forces and hardline Hindu groups have ensured that dialogue and contact between Pakistan and India is almost non-existent.  Can a Bilawal Bhutto visit change anything on the ground? 

America is in decline. Eclipsed by China's rise, it is shifting attention from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. That is one refrain in the analysis of three seemingly paradigm-challenging developments in the past month: a Chinese-mediated restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the kingdom's association with the China-led, security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and a possible Russian-facilitated revival of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Syria. The geopolitical importance of these developments is too early to tell. While significant in and of themselves, they raise as many questions as they provide answers. Their ultimate impact remains uncertain.

It was a candid exchange between two of the US's most prominent adversaries. As he capped off his three-day visit to Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping hinted to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, that both are now shaping a new world order. Xi was on his first visit to Moscow since Russia launched its attack on Ukraine last year. Just days before, Vladimir Putin was issued with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court - and the Russian leader was looking for some diplomatic support from his biggest trade partner and strategic ally. Beijing and Moscow have long opposed the US and its Western-led institutions. Together, they've been critical of NATO's expansion and global sanctions on Russian energy companies and Chinese tech firms. The two countries also lead a series of regional blocs that have offered alternatives to the Western-led order including a group of leading emerging economies known as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Guests: Einar Tangen Senior Fellow at Taihe Institute Mark Meirowitz Professor at SUNY Maritime College

In this edition of #GlobalPrint, ThePrint's Senior Consulting Editor Jyoti Malhotra, discusses India's complex and dynamic relations with Russia as India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Moscow last week and met with Russian president Vladimir Putin on the margins of a meeting on Afghanistan organised under the aegis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation----more----Read this week's Global Print here: https://theprint.in/opinion/global-print/why-vladimir-putin-met-nsa-ajit-doval-and-how-india-navigated-us-to-buy-russian-oil/1369826/

Something is very wrong with my country. Something big and something bad. We can all feel it, though we might not agree on what is actually wrong. The great institutions of state are falling apart. Mighty institutions that I grew up trusting for their integrity, respected around the world, seem to be crumbling amidst incompetence, incoherence, corruption and more.The government, essentially unelected, is unpopular and ineffectual. Not that a properly elected government would make much difference. Sir Humphrey and the Blob still seem to run everything. The system seems set up to look after the system, rather than its people. The opportunities for change and reform that were first, Brexit, then Boris Johnson's sweeping 2019 election win, have been squandered. The government is unable to carry out even its most basic function, which is to defend the borders. The Bank of England has for many years been destroying the value of money. Inflation, which apparently was unforeseeable, is now at 9%. And that's just official inflation – we all know actual inflation is higher. The Bank's monetary policies, together with planning laws, have given us an intergenerational wealth divide which means anyone born after about 1985 can't afford anywhere to live. They delay starting families as a result, and they have smaller families, with the long-term consequence that the local population is eroded away. This then gives rise to the argument that, as locals aren't reproducing, we “need” immigration. I can't remember trust in the police, who seem more concerned with online wrong-think than violent crime, ever having been so low. I wrote that sentence before the David Carrick scandal. The courts are overwhelmed and the court system is both expensive and antiquated. The legal system is manipulated and exploited, only affordable to the very rich or very poor. The penal system is inadequate. Google “NHS and news”, if you want to see what state healthcare is in. Radical progressive ideology has enveloped education. Even the armed forces have been afflicted by it. Universities are overpriced and increasingly irrelevant to the modern work environment. The BBC, the national broadcaster, is loathed for its bias, and its output is, for the most part, crap. Luxury green ideology has left us with sky-high energy prices. Royal Mail only occasionally delivers - I'm still getting Christmas cards now. The trains are useless and expensive. Who knows how well the civil service is doing? It's opaque. The electoral process has become meaningless. You get the same blob whoever you vote for. Representative democracy is neither representative nor democratic.I could go on. You get the point. Everywhere that is not functioning involves (or has involved in its recent history) the heavy hand of the state. You could look at, say, shops, tech, restaurants or media – areas where the state is less involved – and user dissatisfaction levels are not comparable. Airports actually ran better when the border force went on strike. It's as though the state is inherently incompetent. Why there aren't more libertarians, I'll never understand. Meanwhile, all of these institutions are costing a fortune. Spending on most is at all-time highs. By the time you factor in inflation (which is a stealth tax - even the Chancellor recently admitted as much), taxation levels are comfortably in excess of 50%. That is to say: more than half of everything you earn is taken from you by the state to pay for stuff that doesn't work. That's before we get to the tax on the future which is debt and deficit spending.And then there's the waste. Here is just one example:Imagine how much better off we'd all be, if citizens, rather than the government, could choose where to allocate the money they earn. You spend your money better than they do.Culture wars and mass migrationIt's not just crumbling institutions and state overreach. They call it the Culture Wars, but we are in the midst of a religious war, an ideological struggle. What Elon Musk calls “the woke mind virus” – an aggressive, radically progressive ideology born out of an obsession with identity politics – has taken over, especially within institutions and education, and is wreaking havoc. From male rapists being put into women's prisons to expensive green initiatives that actually damage the environment to a pandemic of cancel culture. Again, I could go on. I don't need to spell it out here. You know what I'm talking about. Small government and libertarianism solves this too, by the way. The virus would not be able to survive and spread without the oxygen of public money.Meanwhile, the demography of the country has changed, and as a result, so has its identity (though few have yet realised that). Last year, 1.1 million people migrated to this country –  that's just the ones who were granted visas. There are plenty more that weren't. In effect, roughly one in every 65 people you meet in this country only came here last year.  The London of the 1970s that I grew up in has vanished. The archetypical Londoner used to be the Cockney – the white working-class man or woman born within the sound of Bow Bells. Today the Cockney, once such an instantly recognisable English type and one that has had an incredible influence on Britain, barely exists. They've all gone. Almost every other UK city is on a similar journey to indigenous British white minority.As the song goes, “you don't know what you've got till it's gone”. Whatever we had has gone and we will never get it back. It's not just the UK. It's the whole of Western Europe, and probably much of North America too. My German friend jokes that Buenos Aires will be the last European city. On which note, it was incredible to watch the World Cup Final between Argentina and France. By the time the game ended and the substitutions had been made, it was, essentially, a match between Africans from Europe and Europeans from South America. I am not “anti-migration”, by the way. If anything, I am pro it. In my National Anthem of Libertaria I argue for free movement. The mass movement of people is an inevitable tide in the affairs of men. People have always moved, and always will. But I also view conserving our culture, identity and communities as paramount, and the state is failing to do that.  If such things were not state responsibility, but locals', and people were empowered by lower taxes and the greater responsibility that comes with a smaller state, the outcome would be different. Mass migration is inevitable. People think it's going to decrease. It's not. It's going to increase. There are more people in the world than ever before and – whether it's those displaced by war, by lack of water, by poverty, hunger or (probably the primary factor) lack of opportunity – more and more of them are on the move. Because of modern communications, more of them are aware of better lives to be had elsewhere. Because of modern travel, more of them are able to travel further and faster than ever before. As a result, we are in a migration of people of historically unprecedented proportions. It's only going to increase.Terrified of being labelled racist, Western governments have no coherent philosophy, let alone an actionable strategy, to deal with it all. Especially as both the public and the media have lost sight of the difference between what is legal immigration, what is illegal and what is asylum. Moreover, it has become impossible for all the shouting “racist” to have a grown up conversation about how much immigration we actually want - 100,000 a year? 500,000? Net zero? How pertinent is the Douglas Murray title: The Strange Death of Europe.The world is changing fast. For good or for bad, the Britain we once knew has left Middle Earth. I don't think anyone voted for it. I don't see many leaders trying to stop it. Locals who have paid taxes all their life and now receive inadequate services, or see that tax money being spent on these new Britons, while they go overlooked, not unreasonably feel betrayed, angry, frightened and more. Accountable local government with local borders might be better able to act on the wishes of its people, and defend against this sudden influx that is disrupting so many communities – if so desired. But that is not possible with Britain's remote, centralised, unaccountable state. Given its record elsewhere, when the state is in charge of borders, why should it be any surprise they don't function properly?A genuinely free market-driven economy might be happy with open borders and quickly able to adapt – more people to sell products to, a greater choice of people to employ – what's not to like? But the state systems – schools, hospitals, transport infrastructure – cannot cope. As Milton Friedman observed, you cannot have open borders and an expansive and benevolent welfare state. You can have one or the other, but not both. Yet currently, both is what we have (or are attempting to have). That's why everything is falling apart. In effect, we are paying for ourselves to be colonised.Maybe it's multi-culturalism and expansive state welfare that are incompatible: the latter may only properly function in more mono-cultural societies, such as Japan. (Similar arguments can be made about crime levels. They tend to be lower in mostly mono-cultural cities, especially in Asia, to those in the the more multi-cultural west).Whether it's Hull, Skegness, Mansfield or any other provincial town, when boatloads of young men from different cultures, with no instinctive loyalty to the UK or its ways (and sometimes a contempt for it), are dumped in a community and the community is given no say in the matter, and locals have no power to resist, any anger felt is pretty understandable. There are incidents when the young men are put up in four or five-star hotels, while there are locals, homeless, in tents outside. It is not what people want, nor what they voted for. As I say, representative democracy is neither representative, nor democratic. The model is broken.Brave New World, digital nomad-ery, robot takeover — or something worse?Finally, there are incredible developments in technology: the new worlds being designed for us by nameless, and, in many cases, slightly autistic coders in far away places, the extraordinary expansion of surveillance and the erosion of privacy. Those who have monitored ChatGPT will know that before long as much as half of the content on the internet will be generated by bots. But they are not neutral - they are politically biased. What are the implications of that and the extraordinary influence these nameless coders will have to shape the global narrative?Never mind whose fault this all is, or the rights and wrongs of it all. We all have our ideas. Plenty of them.  What I want to know is: where is this all going? I've been thinking about it a lot.Many draw parallels with the Fall of Rome and the invading barbarians at the gates. Others say we are headed into totalitarianism akin to George Orwell's 1984. Many of my Eastern European friends think we are making the same mistakes they once made and headed into some kind of 21st century Marxism. My Venezuelan friends think the same. Some see a new rise of fascism akin to the 1930s.Some look to Isaac Asimov and the rise of intelligent machines (see my piece on ChatGPT, if you want to know just how advanced machine learning is now). My genius bitcoin billionaire mate, who has long since disappeared somewhere remote in New Zealand, thinks we are going into a world where everybody is housed in Butlins/CentreParks/Club Med (depending on your socio-economic status)-type holiday resorts, with virtual reality headsets on all day, while robots do all the work. That vision tallies somewhat with Aldous Huxley's Brave New World.Another compelling scenario comes in James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg's, in which they describe a two-tiered society. On one tier, thanks to advances in technology and communication, there will be a class of largely untaxed digital nomads, travelling from place to place, operating independently of nation states and government structures. Meanwhile, there will be a much larger class of people trapped in their nations, working in the physical economy (rather than the stateless digital one), heavily taxed and indebted. Hard-money advocates argue that some kind of hyperinflation and the destruction of fiat money is inevitable, or that, with the emergence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the US dollar is soon to lose its reserve currency status, with major implications for the international balance of power. In that case Western Europe is probably going the way of once-wealthy Argentina. “Great Reset” theory, in the wake of Covid and the vaccine furore - that powerful, yet secret actors and organisations, especially the WEF, are planning all of this - looks rather more credible than it once did.There is also a persuasive argument that the expansion of NATO, Vladimir Putin's ambitions and the conflict in Ukraine is going to take us eventually to nuclear war. There is a lot to worry about. These really are incredible times.So back to the underlying question: where is this all going? The South Africanisation of everythingI was in the pub with my friend, the director Alex McCarron, the other night, when this subject came up. He had a simple but compelling answer: South Africa. The South Africanisation of Everything.There are many parallels: crumbling institutions, widespread corruption, mass migration; failing rule of law, rising crime rates – especially violent crime; inadequate policing and reliance on private security; identity politics, siloed, ghetto-ised communities within a so-called multi-cultural country; race-based crime, justified because of history; many cultures, each with their grievances, thrust together and by no means living harmoniously. It's a credible scenario and one I can envisage. One small example: private security vehicles are ubiquitous in Johannesburg. You never used to see them in the UK. My friend sent me this image, spotted this in Notting Hill the other evening. I think such sights are going to get more and more become commonplace. It's another symptom of a failing state.My view is that we are going to see all of those above scenarios. Nevertheless … things are better than we realiseIn all of this negativity, in many ways, things are much better than we may think and the world is in a better state than it has ever been. We are living longer than ever. There are fewer people living below the poverty line than ever. The number of people dying from natural disasters is lower than it has ever been. Information technology means we have greater access to information than ever. 6.8 billion people now have a smart phone - think of all the possibilities that open up as a result. More than 80% of the global population now has access to electricity. With modern transport we are able to go further than ever, quicker than ever. The world is, as a result, more accessible than ever. We might not enjoy her status, but most of us live with luxuries Marie Antoinette could never have dreamed of. Life is so much easier for us than it was for our ancestors and we should be grateful to them for the benefits we enjoy, as a result of what they went through. Wonderful things are possible. There is much to be positive and excited about. There has never been a better time to be alive.But something is missing. Something is wrong. We can all feel it.Our belief systems are awry. I am sure it's to do with the absence of religion. Naive worship of incompetent state institutions has replaced it.Am I right about this? Please post your thoughts in the comments below. And how do you navigate it all, as an investor, and protect/grow your wealth? Gold and bitcoin are the obvious “anti-state” choices.Please share this article on Twitter, Facebook etc (if you liked it).Meanwhile, if you want to listen to Alex and I discuss the South Africanisation of everything – that podcast is here.Interested in protecting your wealth in these extraordinary times? Then be sure to own some gold bullion. My current recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them.My guide to buying bitcoin is here.Make your Number One resolution for 2023 to listen to Kisses on a Postcard.The Flying Frisby is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Something is very wrong with my country. Something big and something bad. We can all feel it, though we might not agree on what is actually wrong. The great institutions of state are falling apart. Mighty institutions that I grew up trusting for their integrity, respected around the world, seem to be crumbling amidst incompetence, incoherence, corruption and more.The government, essentially unelected, is unpopular and ineffectual. Not that a properly elected government would make much difference. Sir Humphrey and the Blob still seem to run everything. The system seems set up to look after the system, rather than its people. The opportunities for change and reform that were first, Brexit, then Boris Johnson's sweeping 2019 election win, have been squandered. The government is unable to carry out even its most basic function, which is to defend the borders. The Bank of England has for many years been destroying the value of money. Inflation, which apparently was unforeseeable, is now at 9%. And that's just official inflation – we all know actual inflation is higher. The Bank's monetary policies, together with planning laws, have given us an intergenerational wealth divide which means anyone born after about 1985 can't afford anywhere to live. They delay starting families as a result, and they have smaller families, with the long-term consequence that the local population is eroded away. This then gives rise to the argument that, as locals aren't reproducing, we “need” immigration. I can't remember trust in the police, who seem more concerned with online wrong-think than violent crime, ever having been so low. I wrote that sentence before the David Carrick scandal. The courts are overwhelmed and the court system is both expensive and antiquated. The legal system is manipulated and exploited, only affordable to the very rich or very poor. The penal system is inadequate. Google “NHS and news”, if you want to see what state healthcare is in. Radical progressive ideology has enveloped education. Even the armed forces have been afflicted by it. Universities are overpriced and increasingly irrelevant to the modern work environment. The BBC, the national broadcaster, is loathed for its bias, and its output is, for the most part, crap. Luxury green ideology has left us with sky-high energy prices. Royal Mail only occasionally delivers - I'm still getting Christmas cards now. The trains are useless and expensive. Who knows how well the civil service is doing? It's opaque. The electoral process has become meaningless. You get the same blob whoever you vote for. Representative democracy is neither representative nor democratic.I could go on. You get the point. Everywhere that is not functioning involves (or has involved in its recent history) the heavy hand of the state. You could look at, say, shops, tech, restaurants or media – areas where the state is less involved – and user dissatisfaction levels are not comparable. Airports actually ran better when the border force went on strike. It's as though the state is inherently incompetent. Why there aren't more libertarians, I'll never understand. Meanwhile, all of these institutions are costing a fortune. Spending on most is at all-time highs. By the time you factor in inflation (which is a stealth tax - even the Chancellor recently admitted as much), taxation levels are comfortably in excess of 50%. That is to say: more than half of everything you earn is taken from you by the state to pay for stuff that doesn't work. That's before we get to the tax on the future which is debt and deficit spending.And then there's the waste. Here is just one example:Imagine how much better off we'd all be, if citizens, rather than the government, could choose where to allocate the money they earn. You spend your money better than they do.Culture wars and mass migrationIt's not just crumbling institutions and state overreach. They call it the Culture Wars, but we are in the midst of a religious war, an ideological struggle. What Elon Musk calls “the woke mind virus” – an aggressive, radically progressive ideology born out of an obsession with identity politics – has taken over, especially within institutions and education, and is wreaking havoc. From male rapists being put into women's prisons to expensive green initiatives that actually damage the environment to a pandemic of cancel culture. Again, I could go on. I don't need to spell it out here. You know what I'm talking about. Small government and libertarianism solves this too, by the way. The virus would not be able to survive and spread without the oxygen of public money.Meanwhile, the demography of the country has changed, and as a result, so has its identity (though few have yet realised that). Last year, 1.1 million people migrated to this country –  that's just the ones who were granted visas. There are plenty more that weren't. In effect, roughly one in every 65 people you meet in this country only came here last year.  The London of the 1970s that I grew up in has vanished. The archetypical Londoner used to be the Cockney – the white working-class man or woman born within the sound of Bow Bells. Today the Cockney, once such an instantly recognisable English type and one that has had an incredible influence on Britain, barely exists. They've all gone. Almost every other UK city is on a similar journey to indigenous British white minority.As the song goes, “you don't know what you've got till it's gone”. Whatever we had has gone and we will never get it back. It's not just the UK. It's the whole of Western Europe, and probably much of North America too. My German friend jokes that Buenos Aires will be the last European city. On which note, it was incredible to watch the World Cup Final between Argentina and France. By the time the game ended and the substitutions had been made, it was, essentially, a match between Africans from Europe and Europeans from South America. I am not “anti-migration”, by the way. If anything, I am pro it. In my National Anthem of Libertaria I argue for free movement. The mass movement of people is an inevitable tide in the affairs of men. People have always moved, and always will. But I also view conserving our culture, identity and communities as paramount, and the state is failing to do that.  If such things were not state responsibility, but locals', and people were empowered by lower taxes and the greater responsibility that comes with a smaller state, the outcome would be different. Mass migration is inevitable. People think it's going to decrease. It's not. It's going to increase. There are more people in the world than ever before and – whether it's those displaced by war, by lack of water, by poverty, hunger or (probably the primary factor) lack of opportunity – more and more of them are on the move. Because of modern communications, more of them are aware of better lives to be had elsewhere. Because of modern travel, more of them are able to travel further and faster than ever before. As a result, we are in a migration of people of historically unprecedented proportions. It's only going to increase.Terrified of being labelled racist, Western governments have no coherent philosophy, let alone an actionable strategy, to deal with it all. Especially as both the public and the media have lost sight of the difference between what is legal immigration, what is illegal and what is asylum. Moreover, it has become impossible for all the shouting “racist” to have a grown up conversation about how much immigration we actually want - 100,000 a year? 500,000? Net zero? How pertinent is the Douglas Murray title: The Strange Death of Europe.The world is changing fast. For good or for bad, the Britain we once knew has left Middle Earth. I don't think anyone voted for it. I don't see many leaders trying to stop it. Locals who have paid taxes all their life and now receive inadequate services, or see that tax money being spent on these new Britons, while they go overlooked, not unreasonably feel betrayed, angry, frightened and more. Accountable local government with local borders might be better able to act on the wishes of its people, and defend against this sudden influx that is disrupting so many communities – if so desired. But that is not possible with Britain's remote, centralised, unaccountable state. Given its record elsewhere, when the state is in charge of borders, why should it be any surprise they don't function properly?A genuinely free market-driven economy might be happy with open borders and quickly able to adapt – more people to sell products to, a greater choice of people to employ – what's not to like? But the state systems – schools, hospitals, transport infrastructure – cannot cope. As Milton Friedman observed, you cannot have open borders and an expansive and benevolent welfare state. You can have one or the other, but not both. Yet currently, both is what we have (or are attempting to have). That's why everything is falling apart. In effect, we are paying for ourselves to be colonised.Maybe it's multi-culturalism and expansive state welfare that are incompatible: the latter may only properly function in more mono-cultural societies, such as Japan. (Similar arguments can be made about crime levels. They tend to be lower in mostly mono-cultural cities, especially in Asia, to those in the the more multi-cultural west).Whether it's Hull, Skegness, Mansfield or any other provincial town, when boatloads of young men from different cultures, with no instinctive loyalty to the UK or its ways (and sometimes a contempt for it), are dumped in a community and the community is given no say in the matter, and locals have no power to resist, any anger felt is pretty understandable. There are incidents when the young men are put up in four or five-star hotels, while there are locals, homeless, in tents outside. It is not what people want, nor what they voted for. As I say, representative democracy is neither representative, nor democratic. The model is broken.Brave New World, digital nomad-ery, robot takeover — or something worse?Finally, there are incredible developments in technology: the new worlds being designed for us by nameless, and, in many cases, slightly autistic coders in far away places, the extraordinary expansion of surveillance and the erosion of privacy. Those who have monitored ChatGPT will know that before long as much as half of the content on the internet will be generated by bots. But they are not neutral - they are politically biased. What are the implications of that and the extraordinary influence these nameless coders will have to shape the global narrative?Never mind whose fault this all is, or the rights and wrongs of it all. We all have our ideas. Plenty of them.  What I want to know is: where is this all going? I've been thinking about it a lot.Many draw parallels with the Fall of Rome and the invading barbarians at the gates. Others say we are headed into totalitarianism akin to George Orwell's 1984. Many of my Eastern European friends think we are making the same mistakes they once made and headed into some kind of 21st century Marxism. My Venezuelan friends think the same. Some see a new rise of fascism akin to the 1930s.Some look to Isaac Asimov and the rise of intelligent machines (see my piece on ChatGPT, if you want to know just how advanced machine learning is now). My genius bitcoin billionaire mate, who has long since disappeared somewhere remote in New Zealand, thinks we are going into a world where everybody is housed in Butlins/CentreParks/Club Med (depending on your socio-economic status)-type holiday resorts, with virtual reality headsets on all day, while robots do all the work. That vision tallies somewhat with Aldous Huxley's Brave New World.Another compelling scenario comes in James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg's, in which they describe a two-tiered society. On one tier, thanks to advances in technology and communication, there will be a class of largely untaxed digital nomads, travelling from place to place, operating independently of nation states and government structures. Meanwhile, there will be a much larger class of people trapped in their nations, working in the physical economy (rather than the stateless digital one), heavily taxed and indebted. Hard-money advocates argue that some kind of hyperinflation and the destruction of fiat money is inevitable, or that, with the emergence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the US dollar is soon to lose its reserve currency status, with major implications for the international balance of power. In that case Western Europe is probably going the way of once-wealthy Argentina. “Great Reset” theory, in the wake of Covid and the vaccine furore - that powerful, yet secret actors and organisations, especially the WEF, are planning all of this - looks rather more credible than it once did.There is also a persuasive argument that the expansion of NATO, Vladimir Putin's ambitions and the conflict in Ukraine is going to take us eventually to nuclear war. There is a lot to worry about. These really are incredible times.So back to the underlying question: where is this all going? The South Africanisation of everythingI was in the pub with my friend, the director Alex McCarron, the other night, when this subject came up. He had a simple but compelling answer: South Africa. The South Africanisation of Everything.There are many parallels: crumbling institutions, widespread corruption, mass migration; failing rule of law, rising crime rates – especially violent crime; inadequate policing and reliance on private security; identity politics, siloed, ghetto-ised communities within a so-called multi-cultural country; race-based crime, justified because of history; many cultures, each with their grievances, thrust together and by no means living harmoniously. It's a credible scenario and one I can envisage. One small example: private security vehicles are ubiquitous in Johannesburg. You never used to see them in the UK. My friend sent me this image, spotted this in Notting Hill the other evening. I think such sights are going to get more and more become commonplace. It's another symptom of a failing state.My view is that we are going to see all of those above scenarios. Nevertheless … things are better than we realiseIn all of this negativity, in many ways, things are much better than we may think and the world is in a better state than it has ever been. We are living longer than ever. There are fewer people living below the poverty line than ever. The number of people dying from natural disasters is lower than it has ever been. Information technology means we have greater access to information than ever. 6.8 billion people now have a smart phone - think of all the possibilities that open up as a result. More than 80% of the global population now has access to electricity. With modern transport we are able to go further than ever, quicker than ever. The world is, as a result, more accessible than ever. We might not enjoy her status, but most of us live with luxuries Marie Antoinette could never have dreamed of. Life is so much easier for us than it was for our ancestors and we should be grateful to them for the benefits we enjoy, as a result of what they went through. Wonderful things are possible. There is much to be positive and excited about. There has never been a better time to be alive.But something is missing. Something is wrong. We can all feel it.Our belief systems are awry. I am sure it's to do with the absence of religion. Naive worship of incompetent state institutions has replaced it.Am I right about this? Please post your thoughts in the comments below. And how do you navigate it all, as an investor, and protect/grow your wealth? Gold and bitcoin are the obvious “anti-state” choices.Please share this article on Twitter, Facebook etc (if you liked it).Meanwhile, if you want to listen to Alex and I discuss the South Africanisation of everything – that podcast is here.Interested in protecting your wealth in these extraordinary times? Then be sure to own some gold bullion. My current recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them.My guide to buying bitcoin is here.Make your Number One resolution for 2023 to listen to Kisses on a Postcard.The Flying Frisby is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Before we get started today, I just wanted to flag two articles from last week. First, my special report on helium. And, second, Dr John's latest on bonds. Both for paying subscribers, there is lots of valuable info to be had, so please check them out.So to today's piece … Every December Saxobank puts out ten outrageous predictions for the year ahead.It does not claim that these predictions will happen, but that they could happen. The purpose of the exercise is to stimulate thought, discussion and debate.And that is just what Saxobank has achieved because today we consider its ten outrageous predictions for 2023.The 10 outrageous predictions for 2023I went back to look at their predictions for 2022 to see if any of them actually happened. The very first was “The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check.” Net Zero has not yet been abandoned, but this year has certainly seen a quite dramatic change in attitude towards fossil fuels. The second was “Facebook faceplants on youth exodus”. Facebook has certainly faceplanted. But I wasn't aware the youth were ever on it.After reading the first two, I was about to bestow Nostre Damus status on Saxobank, but the rest of their 2022 predictions did not really pan out. I won't go through them here. They are in the past. Nobody can do anything about the past. It's the future we need to worry about.So to 2023. Saxobank describes the year as a “war economy”. The days of low-interest rates and a harmonious world built on renewable energy, equality and independent central banks are gone. Now “sovereign economic gains and self-reliance trump globalisation”.That's the macro. Onto the specifics.Prediction one. The pressing global energy needs drive the world's richest to launch an “R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb”.Well, you can bet your bottom dollar that they are talking about it. But I don't think it happens. Not just yet, anyway. Somebody would have to organise it.Prediction two says that, due to the political stalemate in France, and the rise of Marie Le Pen since the 2022 elections, President Macron resigns. I don't see that happening either. France's daft electoral system is what enabled him to be President. The political stalemate means he stays President. Presidents like Macron don't resign unless they are forced to. Too big an ego. Though this McKinsey affair does seem to be hurting him.The gold price surges to $3,000Prediction three is that gold goes to $3,000. Now you're talking my language!“As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof,” says Saxobank.To rocket, gold needs inflation expectations to be markedly higher than government bond yields - negative real rates in other words. In the US we do not yet have that. Saxobank is describing a situation where we do.I've got to be straight with you guys. I don't think gold goes to $3,000 in 2023. It's got a better chance of going to £3,000.Prediction four suggests an EU army is coming and that it forces the EU down the path to full union. We know that, despite denials, the EU has been talking about an EU army for years. With that man Mr Putin on the doorstep the need gets rather more pressing. It's possible but it needs the US to take a backward step in its global policeman role, something President Biden and the US military-industrial complex seem unlikely to do.Like many of Saxobank's predictions, I've no doubt it's coming. Just not next year.We come to prediction number five and one that made me smile. “In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.”I'd never thought about it before, but I do think about it now and I know it's inevitable. Under the pretence of climate change, somewhere is going to impose meat taxes. I don't think meat production will be banned - that's too big a political ask - but meat taxes are coming. And, if you've read the definitive book on taxation that is Daylight Robbery, you will know that taxes are easily imposed, often for moral reasons, but not so easily gotten rid of. Meat taxes are coming - again maybe not a year, but they are coming. It will be for your own good. And once imposed they will stay. Outrageous predictions for 2023: time to wind back Brexit? Prediction six suggests that the UK will hold a referendum to wind back Brexit. Bregret is a big thing now in the UK. A recent YouGov poll found that only 32% now think leaving the European Union was a good idea; 56% say it was a mistake. The Conservative Party have made the most almighty balls up of the opportunity. The primary reason given for voting leave was sovereignty, yet, as the people trafficking and illegal migrant crossings show, they have been unable to even police our borders. No wonder only 21% think Brexit is going well.There will be calls for another referendum. But the Tories won't have it on their watch and I suspect Keir Starmer will be too scared of losing Red Wall votes to make it an electoral pledge. So I doubt we will see a referendum - not next year - even if the sentiment is there.Prediction seven is next and that is for widespread price controls to cap official inflation. Inflation and price controls are forever partnered, and war is never far away from the dancing duo. We have already seen plenty of new price controls this year though. Will we see yet more? Probably.The US dollar is dethronedAnd so to prediction eight - and this is one I do see coming. Well, a watered-down version. And, again maybe not as soon as next year. “OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset.”De-dollarisation is a big theme, especially for those nations that make up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - which is Russia, China, India and Iran and pretty much every nation between. They are not allies of the US and they want a non-US dollar asset they can trade with. The problem is what? (I have some ideas).I don't see them necessarily walking out of the IMF but some non-US-dollar international asset is coming. Or they'll use an existing one. Before the end of next year? Possibly. It might be gold. It might even be bitcoin. It might be something else.Prediction 9 - we are almost there. Japan fixes its currency to the US dollar at 200 as it overhauls its financial system. The yen has been a basket case - even worse than the pound, believe it or not. Here we see it against the dollar over the last decade. From 60 to 170 is quite some drop. (If the chart below is rising it means the dollar is getting stronger).But this is as much a function of US dollar strength as it is yen weakness and Japanese monetary policy.To go to 200 is not that big an ask, but the US dollar has pulled back quite a bit of late and may have made a long-term reversal. But to go to 200 and then get pegged. I'm not sure.Outrageous predictions for 2023: bye-bye private equity And so finally we come to prediction ten. Tax haven ban kills private equity, says Saxobank. “The OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.”The OECD has been wanting to do that for yonks. It has not been able to find a way. Maybe war gives them the excuse. I'm not so sure. The practicalities are difficult. You can't ban Panama. You can't ban Switzerland. Saxobank explains how it would work. The OECD would launch a full ban on the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, The Bahamas, Mauritius and the Isle of Man. “The ban means that corporate acquisitions in OECD countries cannot be made with capital arriving from tax haven entities and only from OECD countries or countries that adopt OECD transparency standards on capital, which would include the automatic exchange of information, beneficial ownership registration and country-by-country reporting”.Ouch. It would decimate private equity. You can be sure that the motivation is there. Will it happen?It depends on how nuts things get. And things are getting nuts.Thanks very much for reading. I'll have my own predictions for you, as is always my way, at the beginning of next year.If you are interested in buying gold bullion, my current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them.Have you got you Kisses on a Postcard CDs yet?Please subscribe to this amazing publication.This article first appeared at Moneyweek. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Before we get started today, I just wanted to flag two articles from last week. First, my special report on helium. And, second, Dr John's latest on bonds. Both for paying subscribers, there is lots of valuable info to be had, so please check them out.So to today's piece … Every December Saxobank puts out ten outrageous predictions for the year ahead.It does not claim that these predictions will happen, but that they could happen. The purpose of the exercise is to stimulate thought, discussion and debate.And that is just what Saxobank has achieved because today we consider its ten outrageous predictions for 2023.The 10 outrageous predictions for 2023I went back to look at their predictions for 2022 to see if any of them actually happened. The very first was “The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check.” Net Zero has not yet been abandoned, but this year has certainly seen a quite dramatic change in attitude towards fossil fuels. The second was “Facebook faceplants on youth exodus”. Facebook has certainly faceplanted. But I wasn't aware the youth were ever on it.After reading the first two, I was about to bestow Nostre Damus status on Saxobank, but the rest of their 2022 predictions did not really pan out. I won't go through them here. They are in the past. Nobody can do anything about the past. It's the future we need to worry about.So to 2023. Saxobank describes the year as a “war economy”. The days of low-interest rates and a harmonious world built on renewable energy, equality and independent central banks are gone. Now “sovereign economic gains and self-reliance trump globalisation”.That's the macro. Onto the specifics.Prediction one. The pressing global energy needs drive the world's richest to launch an “R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb”.Well, you can bet your bottom dollar that they are talking about it. But I don't think it happens. Not just yet, anyway. Somebody would have to organise it.Prediction two says that, due to the political stalemate in France, and the rise of Marie Le Pen since the 2022 elections, President Macron resigns. I don't see that happening either. France's daft electoral system is what enabled him to be President. The political stalemate means he stays President. Presidents like Macron don't resign unless they are forced to. Too big an ego. Though this McKinsey affair does seem to be hurting him.The gold price surges to $3,000Prediction three is that gold goes to $3,000. Now you're talking my language!“As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof,” says Saxobank.To rocket, gold needs inflation expectations to be markedly higher than government bond yields - negative real rates in other words. In the US we do not yet have that. Saxobank is describing a situation where we do.I've got to be straight with you guys. I don't think gold goes to $3,000 in 2023. It's got a better chance of going to £3,000.Prediction four suggests an EU army is coming and that it forces the EU down the path to full union. We know that, despite denials, the EU has been talking about an EU army for years. With that man Mr Putin on the doorstep the need gets rather more pressing. It's possible but it needs the US to take a backward step in its global policeman role, something President Biden and the US military-industrial complex seem unlikely to do.Like many of Saxobank's predictions, I've no doubt it's coming. Just not next year.We come to prediction number five and one that made me smile. “In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.”I'd never thought about it before, but I do think about it now and I know it's inevitable. Under the pretence of climate change, somewhere is going to impose meat taxes. I don't think meat production will be banned - that's too big a political ask - but meat taxes are coming. And, if you've read the definitive book on taxation that is Daylight Robbery, you will know that taxes are easily imposed, often for moral reasons, but not so easily gotten rid of. Meat taxes are coming - again maybe not a year, but they are coming. It will be for your own good. And once imposed they will stay. Outrageous predictions for 2023: time to wind back Brexit? Prediction six suggests that the UK will hold a referendum to wind back Brexit. Bregret is a big thing now in the UK. A recent YouGov poll found that only 32% now think leaving the European Union was a good idea; 56% say it was a mistake. The Conservative Party have made the most almighty balls up of the opportunity. The primary reason given for voting leave was sovereignty, yet, as the people trafficking and illegal migrant crossings show, they have been unable to even police our borders. No wonder only 21% think Brexit is going well.There will be calls for another referendum. But the Tories won't have it on their watch and I suspect Keir Starmer will be too scared of losing Red Wall votes to make it an electoral pledge. So I doubt we will see a referendum - not next year - even if the sentiment is there.Prediction seven is next and that is for widespread price controls to cap official inflation. Inflation and price controls are forever partnered, and war is never far away from the dancing duo. We have already seen plenty of new price controls this year though. Will we see yet more? Probably.The US dollar is dethronedAnd so to prediction eight - and this is one I do see coming. Well, a watered-down version. And, again maybe not as soon as next year. “OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset.”De-dollarisation is a big theme, especially for those nations that make up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - which is Russia, China, India and Iran and pretty much every nation between. They are not allies of the US and they want a non-US dollar asset they can trade with. The problem is what? (I have some ideas).I don't see them necessarily walking out of the IMF but some non-US-dollar international asset is coming. Or they'll use an existing one. Before the end of next year? Possibly. It might be gold. It might even be bitcoin. It might be something else.Prediction 9 - we are almost there. Japan fixes its currency to the US dollar at 200 as it overhauls its financial system. The yen has been a basket case - even worse than the pound, believe it or not. Here we see it against the dollar over the last decade. From 60 to 170 is quite some drop. (If the chart below is rising it means the dollar is getting stronger).But this is as much a function of US dollar strength as it is yen weakness and Japanese monetary policy.To go to 200 is not that big an ask, but the US dollar has pulled back quite a bit of late and may have made a long-term reversal. But to go to 200 and then get pegged. I'm not sure.Outrageous predictions for 2023: bye-bye private equity And so finally we come to prediction ten. Tax haven ban kills private equity, says Saxobank. “The OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.”The OECD has been wanting to do that for yonks. It has not been able to find a way. Maybe war gives them the excuse. I'm not so sure. The practicalities are difficult. You can't ban Panama. You can't ban Switzerland. Saxobank explains how it would work. The OECD would launch a full ban on the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, The Bahamas, Mauritius and the Isle of Man. “The ban means that corporate acquisitions in OECD countries cannot be made with capital arriving from tax haven entities and only from OECD countries or countries that adopt OECD transparency standards on capital, which would include the automatic exchange of information, beneficial ownership registration and country-by-country reporting”.Ouch. It would decimate private equity. You can be sure that the motivation is there. Will it happen?It depends on how nuts things get. And things are getting nuts.Thanks very much for reading. I'll have my own predictions for you, as is always my way, at the beginning of next year.If you are interested in buying gold bullion, my current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them.Have you got you Kisses on a Postcard CDs yet?Please subscribe to this amazing publication.This article first appeared at Moneyweek. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe

Post reporter Jack Lau analyses the energy and weapons deals signed by Saudi Arabia and China during Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh; hear about the historic Arab-China summit, and China’s push to expand the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation; New York-based reporter Khushboo Razdan discusses Joe Biden’s “America first” push, in a week where Taiwan’s TSMC opened its first US semiconductor plant and the EU agreed to subsidise its own vehicle industry to compete with Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. …

The rules-based international order – that the EU is particularly keen to uphold – is under pressure, and not just since February 2022. Balances of powers are shifting as war continues on European soil, an global gas and food prices are rising. Regional powers and regional international organisations – such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – that were long deemed of secondary relevance by the European political establishment – seem to grow in self-confidence and international agency. China's role in all of this is pivotal. Our conversation will explore what exactly are China's interests today and what tools and allies Beijing has to advance them. Joseph Liow Chin Yong is Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. He is Professor and former Dean at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and currently Dean of College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences at NTU Singapore. His research interests encompass social movements in Southeast Asia and the geopolitics and geoeconomics of the Asia Pacific region. Joseph Liow Chin Yong is the author, co-author, or editor of 14 books. His most recent single-authored books are Ambivalent Engagement: The United States and Regional Security in Southeast Asia after the Cold War (Brookings 2017), Religion and Nationalism in Southeast Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2016) and Dictionary of the Modern Politics of Southeast Asia, fourth edition (Routledge, 2014). A regular columnist for The Straits Times, his commentaries on international affairs have also appeared in New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, National Interest, Nikkei Asian Review, and the Wall Street Journal. Irene Giner-Reichl, Ambassador (ret.)

We talk about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). What is the SCO? Who is in the SCO? What does the SCO do? What is its role and future in international politics?

#India en #Pakistan zijn gezworen aartsvijanden, verwikkeld in wat de Pakistaanse politieke elite "De Duizendjarige Oorlog" noemt. De spanningen lopen op tussen beide landen. Hoe vallen deze te verklaren? En waarom waren zij allebei op de Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand, de hoofdstad van Oezbekistan?Beluister deze podcast. Leer meer over:Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 2022 vergadering (01:10)Ontstaansgeschiedenis strijd tussen India en Pakistan (20:35)Demografische kenmerken en ontwikkelingen (32:03)Aankomst Britten en hun invloed op de Indiase economie (39:14)Invloed Britse overheersing op de Indiase identiteit (46:18)Rol van Kashmir in de islamisering van Pakistan (52:40)De oorlogen tussen India en Pakistan en landsbelang vs regimebelang (59:47)

När Vladimir Putin är pressad kliver Xi Jinping fram. Hör allt om maktspelet och härskarteknikerna på diktatormötet i Samarkand. Och hur Kina nu dominerar Ryssland på ett historiskt nytt sätt. Det var Xi Jinpings första utlandsresa sedan pandemin började. Och för Putins en av få utlandsresor som har gjorts sedan invasionen av Ukraina inleddes. Öga mot öga satt de nu i samma rum inom ramen för Shanghai Cooperation Organisation och talade om stärkta band och en ny världsordning. Men mötet blev också en uppvisning i ryggdunk, maktspel och härskartekniker där Xi Jinping drog längsta strået. Kina utnyttjar nu på ett tydligt sätt att Putin är pressad och Xi Jinping flyttar fram sina positioner på den globala spelplanen. "Kinesiska sidan har övertaget"Putin uttryckte ett helhjärtat stöd för Kinas linje ifråga om Taiwan under mötet, men fick inte samma varma hand tillbaka. Från mötet rapporterades tvärtom att Xi Jinping uttryckte "frågor" och "oro" om Putins krig i Ukraina. Något som väcker frågor om var Vladimir Putin har Xi Jinping. Hör också om de centralasiatiska ländernas position, mittemellan Ryssland och Kina. Även där passar Kina på att stärka sin egen roll nu. Medverkande:Hanna Sahlberg, KinakommentatorJohanna Melén, utrikesreporterAxel Kronholm, programledare

Bilateral meetings hogged the limelight at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – the ones that happened and even the ones that didn't. The presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi were watched closely. Especially the bits where Mr. Putin said that he understood Chinese and Indian concerns about the war in Ukraine.  From India's standpoint, a non-meeting with the Chinese President indicated that the recent pullback in the disputed border areas between the two countries were not enough to warrant a bilateral engagement at the highest level. With Pakistan, no meeting was expected with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and none happened. 

India and China are among the states that continue to buy Russian exports, after the US, EU and allies imposed sanctions isolating Russia from the global economy. However both President Xi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to distance themselves from Russia's offensive in Ukraine when they met during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Is this indicative of cracks in Russia's diplomatic shield against countries opposed to the war? Dr. Pradeep Taneja of Melbourne University weighs in.

India and China are among the states that continue to buy Russian exports, after the US, EU and allies imposed sanctions isolating Russia from the global economy. However both President Xi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to distance themselves from Russia's offensive in Ukraine when they met during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Is this indicative of cracks in Russia's diplomatic shield against countries opposed to the war? Dr. Pradeep Taneja of Melbourne University weighs in.

Uzbekistan, historically the crossroad of different Silk roads, is today the venue of the Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended with a host of leaders who are regional strongmen.  Read more

This week's Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit makes tangible the existence of an alternative international community. Featuring leaders from Russia, China, and India it is the organisation's first face-to-face meeting since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear goal at the core of the discussions: power politics and the race to multipolarism as an alternative to Western liberalism. In this week's episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the summit's geopolitical implications. How is SCO “dialogue partner” Turkey using the Ukraine war to get the best of both worlds? How much will Iran's imminent membership advance its security? And finally, what would be the implications for Beijing if Putin were to lose power, and how can China support the Kremlin? This podcast was recorded on 16 September 2022. Bookshelf - “Jamais Frères? Ukraine Et Russie: Une Tragédie Postsoviétique" by Anna Coulin Lebdevev - “The Rest Is Politics” podcast by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. - “Die beste aller möglichen Welten” by Michael Kempe - “The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson - “The Found and the Lost: The Collected Novellas of Ursula K. Le Guin” by Ursula K. Le Guin

More than 20 years ago, China and Russia formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Since then, the group has grown into a major political, economic and security organization with eight permanent members. And Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the summit as a special guest. Formed back in 2002, the SCO works to strengthen security and economic cooperation in the region. Türkiye, which is a part of NATO, is also a dialogue partner of the SCO. So we take a look at whether Ankara could one day join this Chinese and Russian-led security group as a full member. Guests: James Dorsey Senior Fellow at Singapore's Middle East Institute Einar Tangen Senior Fellow at Taihe Institute

In the ancient city of Samarkand, modern-day leaders of the East have gathered at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit of 2022.This year, Iran has signed a memorandum of obligations to become a permanent member of the geopolitical alliance.After several rounds of failed talks in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear programme and economic sanctions imposed by the West, what are the opportunities ahead for Iran?Find out more as the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, talks to Al Jazeera.Subscribe to our channel http://bit.ly/AJSubscribeFollow us on Twitter https://twitter.com/AJEnglishFind us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/aljazeeraCheck our website: http://www.aljazeera.com/Check out our Instagram page: https://www.instagram.com/aljazeeraenglish/@AljazeeraEnglish#Aljazeeraenglish#News

Listen to the latest SBS Hindi news from India. 16/09/2022

15 और 16 सितम्बर 2022, दुनिया के लिए बहुत अहम होने वाले हैं। भारत, पाकिस्तान, चीन और रूस समेत दुनिया के 8 बड़े देशों के प्रतिनिधि SCO समिट का हिस्सा बनने वाले हैं। ये समिट उस समय हो रही है जब दुनिया कोविड की महामारी से उबर रही है, रूस और यूक्रेन का युद्ध चल रहा है, पाकिस्तान आर्थिक रूप से बेहद तंग स्थिति में है, अफ़ग़ानिस्तान में तालिबान का उदय हो चुका है और चीन और भारत के बीच में सीमा विवाद चल रहा है। नमस्कार साथियो। मेरा नाम है मंगलम् भारत और आप सुन रहे हैं ABP LIVE PODCAST की ये ख़ास पेशकश FYI यानि कि For Your Information. इस एपिसोड में हम बात करेंगे SCO देशों की और आने वाले समय में ये देश किस तरफ़ कदम बढ़ाएँगे, भारत के लिए इसमें क्या संभावनाएँ और चुनौतियाँ हैं, इस पर और साथ ही बात करेंगे प्रणय उपाध्याय से जो कि फ़ॉरेन अफ़ेयर्स को कवर करते हैं। SCO दुनिया का एक बड़ा मंच है, जिसे नाटो के बराबर माना जाता है। हालाँकि दोनों के बीच मूलभूत अंतर भी हैं। जहाँ नाटो के बारे में लोग एक सैन्य समूह के तौर पर ज़्यादा जानते हैं, वहीं SCO पूरी दुनिया में इन देशों के सीमा से जुड़े विवाद, आर्थिक समस्याओं को सुलझाने, व्यापार को बेहतर करने, नई परियोजनाओं को लागू करने और महत्त्वपूर्ण विदेशी मुद्दों पर एक सामरिक नीति बनाने के लिए जाना जाता है। ये वाली SCO बैठक बाकी बैठकों से इतनी महत्त्वपूर्ण क्यों है? बहुत ज़रूरी सवाल है, जिसका जवाब जानना भी उतना ही ज़रूरी है। पूरी दुनिया भर की निगाहें इस बैठक पर बाज़ की तरह टिकी हैं, और सब कोई जानना चाहते हैं कि इस बैठक के बाद कौन देश किस तरफ़ कदम बढ़ाएगा। चीन और भारत के बीच सीमा विवाद का क्या अंजाम होगा? भारत और पाकिस्तान किस तरह अपने संबंधों को सुधारेंगे। अफ़गानिस्तान में तालिबान का शासन आया है, इस पर बाक़ी देश साथ मिलकर क्या निर्णय और नीति बनाएँगे। भारत के लिए इतना महत्वपूर्ण क्यों है? भारत के लिए आने वाले एक दो साल तो चुनौतियों और अवसरों से भरे पड़े हैं। भारत को SCO की अध्यक्षता अगले एक साल के लिए मिलने वाली है। इसके साथ ही भारत G20 का भी नेतृत्व अगले साल करने वाला है। जहाँ अगले साल नई दिल्ली में SCO के अंतर्गत भारत पाकिस्तान, चीन और रूस को आमंत्रित करेगा, वहीं G20 के अंतर्गत व्लादिमीर पुतिन और जो बाइडेन के साथ प्रधानमंत्री चाय पे चर्चा करते दिखाई दे सकते हैं। इस कारण भी भारत के लिए SCO की यह बैठक बहुत अहम होने वाली है। कोविड की महामारी के बाद जो आर्थिक आपदा पूरी दुनिया के सर पर फूटी है, उससे भी ये 8 देश अछूते नहीं हैं। यूक्रेन से लड़ तो लिए हैं पुतिन लेकिन यूरोपीय संघ और नाटो देशों ने जो सेंक्शन्स लगाए हैं, उनसे निपटने के लिए SCO देशों के साथ अपने संबंधों को और बेहतर करने के लिए पुतिन भी इस बैठक को लेकर भयंकर क्यूरियस दिखाई देंगे। भारत इसमें अपने लिए भी कोई संभावनाएँ तलाश रहा है क्योंकि मंदी के इस दौर में पैसा तो सबको बनाना है। SCO को हमेशा से जाना जाता है अपने सीमा विवादों को सुलझाने के लिए। SCO का जन्म भी इसीलिए हुआ था। सोवियत संघ के टूटने के बाद यूरोप और एशिया के इन देशों के बीच सीमा के विवाद न हों इसलिए चीन के बीजिंग में शंघाई फ़ाइव नाम का संगठन तैयार हुआ जिसने 2002 में अपना नाम बदलकर SCO कर लिया। आज भारत और चीन भी चाहेंगे कि सीमा विवाद को सुलझाया जाए और मंदी से निकलकर रोज़गार के नए अवसर तैयार किए जाएँ। पाकिस्तान की बात करते हैं। कल के ही दिन शहबाज़ शरीफ़ ने वकीलों के एक कार्यक्रम में अपना दुखड़ा रो दिया। शरीफ़ बोले कि सारी दुनिया और उनके मित्र देश भी उनको भीख माँगने वाले मुल्क के तौर पर देखते हैं। उन्होंने कहा, "आज, जब हम किसी मित्र देश में जाते हैं या फोन करते हैं, तो वे सोचते हैं कि हम [उनके पास] पैसे मांगने आए हैं,"। शरीफ ने कहा कि छोटी अर्थव्यवस्थाओं ने भी पाकिस्तान को पीछे छोड़ दिया है, "और हम पिछले 75 वर्षों से भीख का कटोरा लेकर भटक रहे हैं"। श्री शरीफ के अनुसार, पाकिस्तान की अर्थव्यवस्था बाढ़ से पहले ही एक "चुनौतीपूर्ण स्थिति" का सामना कर रही थी, जिसने इसे और अधिक "जटिल" बना दिया था। उन्होंने कहा कि पाकिस्तान के तत्कालीन प्रधान मंत्री इमरान खान को हटाने के बाद अप्रैल में जब उन्होंने सत्ता संभाली थी, तब पाकिस्तान "आर्थिक चूक" के कगार पर था, और गठबंधन सरकार ने अपनी कड़ी मेहनत से देश को डिफ़ॉल्ट से बचाया था। पाकिस्तान की रवायत भले ही भीख माँगने की रही हो लेकिन शरीफ़ साहब पूरी कोशिश करेंगे कि SCO की इस बैठक में पाकिस्तान की आर्थिक समस्याओं को सुलझाने के लिए पड़ोसी देशों के साथ कुछ नई परियोजनाएँ मिल जाएँ। इस बैठक के बारे में विस्तार से जानने के लिए हमने बात की प्रणय उपाध्याय से जो कि फॉरेन अफ़ेयर्स को कवर करते हैं। प्रणय बहुत बहुत धन्यवाद आपका ABP LIVE PODCAST में। पहला सवाल तो ये कि SCO और NATO की तुलना होती रहती है। नाटो यूरोप और अमेरिका में एक्टिव है वहीं SCO एशिया में। इनकी तुलना होनी भी चाहिए या फिर सब फिज़ूल की बातें हैं। अगले साल भारत को SCO की कमान मिलने वाली है, क्या फ़ायदा और क्या चुनौतियाँ होंगी 2023 के लिए। ईरान नए स्थाई सदस्य के तौर पर SCO से जुड़ा है। भारत के लिए क्या फ़ायदा क्या नुकसान हैं? तो ये थे हमारे साथ प्रणय उपाध्याय। जिन्होंने SCO की इस बैठक को लेकर हमसे बातचीत की। FYI का ये एपिसोड यहीं ख़त्म होता है। मैं हूं मंगलम् भारत। सुनते रहें ABP LIVE PODCAST.

The Chinese leader sets foot on foreign soil for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic started with a trip to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Samarkand, Uzbekistan; North Korea forms closer ties with Russia, Pakistan takes stock after devas.ating flooding and Hong Kong, the former colonial outpost now back under China's control, mourns the Queen Ed White is correspondent with the Financial Times in Seoul.

Business ties are high on the agenda at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan. The countries represented are huge potential markets for Russian energy, and Vladimir Putin has been pushing for closer ties. China and India in particular have increased their imports of Russian oil, natural gas and coal since the invasion of Ukraine. Also on the show: US railworkers reach a deal to avoid a costly strike, and the owner of Patagonia donates the retailer to a climate charity. 

In this latest Hindi bulletin: Unemployment figures rise marginally for August; The Prime Minister prepares to travel to London to attend the Queen's funeral; Indian PM Narendra Modi visits Uzbekistan to attend Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting and more news .

This year's Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit is in the spotlight as the Presidents of India, Russia, and China attend, with the Ukraine conflict at the centre of attention. We examine whether the organisation could rival the security groupings that the West has created.

India and China issued a joint statement last week announcing a coordinated and planned disengagement between the troops of both sides in the area of Gogra-Hotsprings (PP-15). While the disengagement is welcome, the timing suggests another story. In this episode, Shrikrishna Upadhyaya speaks to Manoj Kewalramani on the significance of the latest developments, its connection with the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meet, and the likelihood of thaw in bilateral relations between India and China.You can follow Shrikrishna Upadhyaya on twitter: https://twitter.com/shrikrishna5You can follow Manoj Kewalramani on twitter: https://twitter.com/theChinaDudeCheck out Takshashila's courses: https://school.takshashila.org.in/You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the IVM Podcasts app on Android: https://ivm.today/android or iOS: https://ivm.today/ios, or any other podcast app.You can check out our website at https://shows.ivmpodcasts.com/featuredDo follow IVM Podcasts on social media.We are @IVMPodcasts on Facebook, Twitter, & Instagram.https://twitter.com/IVMPodcastshttps://www.instagram.com/ivmpodcasts/?hl=enhttps://www.facebook.com/ivmpodcasts/Follow the show across platforms:Spotify, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, JioSaavn, Gaana, Amazon MusicDo share the word with you folks!

With Turkish Russian trade booming since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna's visit to Turkey this week focused on efforts to further isolate Moscow. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu welcomed Colonna. But behind the diplomatic pleasantries, there are growing concerns in the EU over Ankara's refusal to enforce western sanctions against Moscow. At a joint press conference with Cavusoglu, Colonna stressed the importance of unity in standing up to Russian aggression. "The European Union and other partner and allied countries have the same objective: to limit the renewal of the Russian war effort and to make Russia understand that it has chosen a dead end," said Colonna. "In this context, it is important that as many countries as possible send the same message." Deep financial ties Russian-Turkish trade has surged to record levels since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. Bilateral trade with European countries, which had strong trading ties with Russia, has spiked fuelling suspicions that Turkey is becoming a backdoor to circumvent sanctions. Turkish-Russian financial ties deepened further, with Moscow depositing five billion dollars in Turkey, ostensibly to aid a Russian company's construction of a nuclear power station in Turkey. A further 10 billion dollars is reportedly expected in the next few weeks. The infusion of hard currency is a welcome boost for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose 2023 campaign for reelection is dogged by a plunging lira and inflation running at nearly 80 percent. "By helping Russia get around sanctions, Turkey can earn key balance of payments receipts, and that will help support the lira, write down inflation and help Erdogan win the elections," explained Timothy Ash, a senior strategist with Bluebay Asset Management. 'Black knight' To safeguard his close ties with Vladimir Putin, Erdogan has resisted calls from his western allies to enforce sanctions against Russia. Last month at the Black Sea resort of Sochi, the two leaders discussed further developing trade ties. Turkey has doubled Russian oil imports since this year's assault on Ukraine. Russian oligarchs continue to moor their yachts in Turkish marinas, knowing that Turkish authorities won't attempt to seize them. "Turkey has de facto become a black knight. In academic literature, that means a state that is willing to help a sanctioned country, at least to mitigate sanctions," said Maria Shagina, a specialist on international sanctions at the Institute for Strategic Studies.  "And this is where Russia sees Turkey in that light, that it can come in handy in terms of developing its economic ties against the background of Western companies fleeing the country," added Shagina. Grain deal Turkey and the United Nations have brokered a deal to export Ukrainian grain to world markets, and those export operations are based in Istanbul. Erdogan claims credit for the agreement, saying it was possible only because of his close ties with Putin, relations which analysts suggest are set to deepen. Turkey's Erdogan due in Russia to 'sound out' Putin on Ukraine and Syria "The current Turkish Russian relations have definite bonds with the current war in Ukraine. Ukraine wheat exports is a new chapter for the region, and Turkey plays a quite significant role as an intermediary," said Russia Turkey expert Zaur Gasimov of Bonn University. "And also close military cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey and the aspect of Turkey not joining the anti-Russian sanctions, all that results in dynamics of importance for Moscow and for Ankara," said Gasimov. Ukraine drone sales Erdogan routinely points out that along with close ties with Putin, Turkish firms continue to sell military drones to Ukraine, weapons which are proving effective against Russian forces. But this balancing act between Ukraine and Russia raises questions about where the Turkish leader's loyalties lie. In a move interpreted as further stoking questions over Erdogan's loyalties, Putin invited the Turkish leader to this month's meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a Chinese-Russian-led, Eurasian security grouping. Turkey lays the ground for a smoothing of relations with Syria Galip Dalay, a Russia Turkey expert at the London-based Chatham House, says Putin's invitation and regular meetings with Erdogan are part of a broader Russian strategy. "Putin's telling the international community, 'actually I am not as isolated as the West wants or portrays me to be'," said Dalay. "So, the symbolism of these meetings, including Erdogan potentially joining the Shanghai Cooperation meeting in Uzbekistan, the symbolism is more important than the substance." High technology Analysts warn that Putin may seek to further leverage Erdogan's relationship and growing financial dependency on Russia to circumvent Western technology sanctions, putting Ankara on a collision course with its allies. "To me, the game-breaker is high technology," warned Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners, "If I understand it correctly, both in a civilian area and in a military area, Russia is denied high technology that is really hitting their supply lines. "If Turkish companies are used to import proscribed items to reexport to Russia, that will blow the game open, and Turkey will be sanctioned," added Yesilada. In a sign that Turkey's western allies are losing patience, the US Treasury sent a letter to Turkey this month bluntly warning Turkish businesses of the financial dangers of trading with sanctioned Russian companies. With Turkey's economy in a weak state, sanctions could trigger a devastating economic crisis. At the same time, analysts say Erdogan is placing his bets on Russia in the hope that Russian trade and support will revitalise his nation's economy ahead of next year's elections.

What does it mean for Russia and China to declare they will use the ruble and the yuan instead of US currency for their oil and gas deals? Have Chinese refineries decided they can avoid sanctions and buy cheap Russian crude? Siqi Ji analyses the growing Sino-Russian energy relationship, while William Zheng looks at the geopolitics of the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting and how Xi Jinping will use it to form an anti-US alliance. Chad Bray looks at the new UK government and PM…

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a strong opponent of the Syrian regime, says his country could be ready for dialogue with Damascus. It's a prospect that's causing alarm in the ranks of the Syrian opposition that relies heavily on Turkish support. Since the onset of the Syrian civil war, Erdogan routinely targeted his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al Assad as a tyrant, devil, and butcher, pledging that he would pay for what he calls his atrocities against his people.  But this month, Erdogan is singing a different tune. Referring to his nation's relations with the Syrian regime, the Turkish leader told reporters: "Political dialogue and diplomacy cannot be cut off between states."   Ankara severed its diplomatic ties with the Assad government at the start of the civil war. Erdogan has played a leading role in backing the opposition in its bid to oust Assad from power. But Turkey is now looking to return millions of Syrian refugees.  Talk of 'peace' Earlier this month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed he had recently held talks with his Syrian counterpart.  "I had a brief chat with the Syrian foreign minister on the sidelines of a meeting, telling him that Turkey believes there will be peace between the Assad regime and the opposition and that Turkey is ready to help in such circumstances," Cavusoglu said.  Syrian rebels angrily protested, burning Turkish flags as they got news of the discussion between the Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers.   "It's terrible news for the Syrian opposition," said Galip Dalay, a Turkey analyst at Chatham House.  "Because of the trouble they were facing, they were already more and more turning into Turkey's proxies, and now that will be basically the nail in the coffin of the Syrian opposition. "But some of the groups there might also be decoupling between Turkey and some of the Syrian opposition groups." Syrian Kurds Analysts say Erdogan could be looking for rapprochement with Damascus to get rid of Syrian Kurdish forces of the YPG from its border.  Ankara accuses the YPG of having links to an insurgency inside Turkey. "From our perspective, we need to feel secure definitely," said Omer Onhon, Turkey's last ambassador to Syria. Erdogan is also facing mounting public pressure over the millions of Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey. But Onhon says Ankara needs to be cautious in its dealings with Damascus. Kurdish PKK fighters may retreat to Iran as Turkish military closes in "We need to see that Syria is secure for the return of Syrians in Turkey and in other countries. So, the regime has to prove that they are sincere in seeking a real political solution. But up to now, this is not the case," said Onhon. But time may not be on Erdogan's side. He faces reelection next year and is languishing in the polls, with many voters citing the presence of Syrian refugees as one of his most significant election liabilities.  Moscow a player The hand of Moscow, which has long backed the Assad regime, could also be a factor in Erdogan's deliberations, says analyst Dalay. "This is precisely in line with the Russian vision of Syria," said Dalay.  "The core of it is that Turkey needs to engage Damascus. That the road to Turkey's concerns in Syria goes through Damascus, so that's the message that Putin and Russia have been sending to Turkey. "How Turkey will follow through is a big question because Turkey has a significant military presence there (Syria). How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before polls "So, Syria would insist on the withdrawal of the Turkish presence from Syria. And this is a very difficult position in terms of foreign and domestic policy. "  Assad has repeatedly called for the unconditional withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory — Ankara controls a large swathe of Syrian territory along the Turkish border, seized in its fight against the Kurdish YPG group.   It's a demand the Syrian president could make face-to-face with Erdogan in September when both leaders are invited to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. 

This week marks a significant milestone for the Policy, Guns & Money team - our 150th episode! We'd love to hear your thoughts and feedback via podcast@aspi.org.au, thanks! As Australia's space sector grows and continues to build significant sovereign capabilities, optimising the links between commercial and national security space is critical. Bec Shrimpton speaks to Adam Gilmour, CEO and Founder of Gilmour Space Technologies, about the need for greater collaboration between the private sector and government to support Australia's space industry. It's been more than two years since the deadly clashes on the India-China border in 2020, and despite many rounds of consultations between the two countries, the situation at the border shows no signs of improving. Baani Grewal speaks to Dr Tanvi Madan, senior fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy in the Foreign Policy program and director of The India Project at the Brookings Institution, about the trajectory of the India-China relationship in light of the border issues, as well as the differences between India's participation in the Quad, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Southeast Asia continues to see a rapid digital transformation, fuelling the region's economic growth. Dr Gatra Priyandita talks to Elina Noor, Director of Political-Security Affairs and Deputy Director of the Washington DC office at the Asia Society Policy Institute, about how governments in Southeast Asia are responding to the region's digital transformation. Guests (in order of appearance): Bec Shrimpton: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/bec-shrimpton Adam Gilmour: https://www.gspacetech.com/team Baani Grewal: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/baani-grewal Dr Tanvi Madan: https://www.brookings.edu/experts/tanvi-madan/ Dr Gatra Priyandita: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/gatra-priyandita Elina Noor: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/elina-noor Image: Gilmour Space Large Hybrid engine test. Music: "Cathode" by ScanGlobe - via the FreeMusicArchive.org Feedback: podcast@aspi.org.au

If there is one story that defines India's foreign policy after the 1998 nuclear tests, it is that of New Delhi's engagement with Washington across Prime Ministers – Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh and now Narendra Modi. The tango is yet to end and the dance masters remain committed to the relationship. Despite India's membership of mutually antagonistic clubs like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Quad, New Delhi found it need not make public choices till the February invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The situation today is dramatically altered – choices will have consequences. While External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar pointed to India's oil purchases from Russia as being minimal compared to Europe, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made a pointed reference to human rights abuses at their recent press conference in Washington. So, where is the Indo-U.S. relationship headed? We discuss in this episode. Guest: Dr. Atul Bhardwaj, independent foreign policy researcher and author of ‘India-America Relations (1942-62): Rooted in the Liberal International Order' Host: Amit Baruah, Senior Associate Editor, The Hindu Edited by Ranjani Srinivasan

With the US invasion of Afghanistan coming to end and Iran joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Middle East, otherwise known as West Asia, is seeing major shifts in geopolitical power dynamics. Ross Ashcroft is joined by Beirut-based journalist and analyst Sharmine Narwani, and journalist and investigative historian Gareth Porter to discuss the future of West Asia and the end of US hegemony.

With the US invasion of Afghanistan coming to end and Iran joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Middle East, otherwise known as West Asia, is seeing major shifts in geopolitical power dynamics. Ross Ashcroft is joined by Beirut-based journalist and analyst Sharmine Narwani, and journalist and investigative historian Gareth Porter to discuss the future of West Asia and the end of US hegemony.

Since the US and allied forces evacuated from Afghanistan, the country has been left abandoned. The US and its allies failed to bring peace to the war-stricken country, paving the way for other regional actors to step in and fill the vacuum. Could the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional bloc led by China and Russia, help stabilise Afghanistan? Guests: David Arase Resident Professor at Hopkins-Nanjing Centre Murat Aslan Faculty Member at Sabahattin Zaim University

This week on WorldView, SCO and Quad summit meetings within a week, can India walk the non-aligned tightrope or is it attempting to put its foot in two boats? On two Fridays, a week apart, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is attending two very different summits, that some would call geopolitical contradictions of each other. On the one hand, there is the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, that is made up of Russia, China, Pakistan, Central Asian countries, India and now Iran…and on the other a visit to Washington to attend the US-Australia-Japan-India Quadrilateral summit. Read more here

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit is underway in Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe. The now nine-member Eurasian security bloc hopes to contain any fallout from the Taliban's takeover. But can this hugely diverse group of nations reach a common consensus with so many member states holding dramatically different views? Guests: Bruce Pannier Correspondent at the Radio Free Europe specialising in Central Asia Niva Yau Researcher at the OSCE Academy and fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia Haroun Rahimi Assistant Professor of Law at the American University of Afghanistan

NDA is set to return to power in Bihar, Delhi recorded its sixth straight day of severe pollution on Tuesday, PM Modi took a swipe at Pakistan at the virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation & other top stories in your morning news bulletin.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a permanent intergovernmental international organisation; its predecessor was the Shanghai Five mechanism. The SCO's creation was announced on 15 June 2001 in Shanghai, China, by the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan. Currently, the organisation comprises eight member states, namely the Republic of India, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan. Four other states have observer status: they are the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the Republic of Belarus, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Mongolia. The organisation has two permanent bodies: the SCO Secretariat, based in Beijing, and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, based in Tashkent, and has six dialogue partners, namely the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Republic of Armenia, the Kingdom of Cambodia, the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, the Republic of Turkey, and the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka. In this lecture under our Prominent Speaker Series, HE Vladimir Imamovich Norov, the secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, will talk about the crucial role that the SCO plays in ensuring stability and sustainable development in the region.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, or Shanghai Pact, is a Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance, the creation of which was announced on 15 June 2001 in Shanghai, China

As fresh India-China tensions flare up at the border, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi agreed that the current situation in Ladakh is not in the interest of either side. Jaishankar and his counterpart met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, in Moscow, at a luncheon meeting, hosted by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with hopes of making a breakthrough in the frosty ties. This came on the heels of an unspoken no-firing status quo reportedly being violated at the LAC for the first time in 45 years. After the meeting, in a five-point joint media statement, the two ministers agreed that both countries should "quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions" and abide by all the existing agreements and protocols on India-China boundary affairs. But does this joint statement indicate any major headway in the talks or are the Indo-China dialogues stuck at a stalemate? Although Russia which currently holds the presidency of RIC-SCO-BRICS has responded to the Indo-China tensions in very measured words so far, will it be able to play a role in diffusing tensions between the two? Tune in to The Big Story!Producer and Host: Shorbori PurkayasthaGuests: Vishnu Prakash, Former High Commissioner to Canada, Ambassador to South Korea & Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs Editor: Shelly WaliaReferences:India-China Clash: Why Russia Won't Mediate But Will Ease TensionDragon on the Dialogue Table: What Jaishankar-Wang Yi Meet Implies Music: Big Bang FuzzListen to The Big Story podcast on: Apple: https://apple.co/2AYdLIl Saavn: http://bit.ly/2oix78C Google Podcasts: http://bit.ly/2ntMV7S Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2IyLAUQ Deezer: http://bit.ly/2Vrf5Ng Castbox: http://bit.ly/2VqZ9ur

It's been a week filled with major developments on the diplomacy and foreign policy front, starting with Raisina Dialogue, the annual conference hosted by the External Affairs Ministry. The government then announced that it would invite Pakistan PM Imran Khan to the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that India is hosting and soon after it was reported that U.S. President Donald Trump may also make his maiden visit to India in February. We break all this down ad as a bonus, we also have excerpts of an interview with former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai. Guest: Suhasini Haidar, Diplomatic Affairs Editor, The Hindu.