International report

Three decades after war reduced the city of Aghdam to ruins, deminers and returning residents are laying the groundwork for its revival. The destruction of the city of Aghdam in the contested enclave of Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh is among the most visible signs of the decades-long conflict between Azerbaijanis and ethnic Armenians. Now efforts are underway to bring the city back to life. A loud explosion breaks the winter silence as the latest disposal of collected mines takes place. ‘We've cleared three hundred thousand square meters and found more than ten thousand landmines,” proudly declares Elnur Gasimov, head of mine clearance operations in Aghdam. The dangerous work, done in freezing weather, carries significant risk. Gasimov's right hand is missing several fingers. “We have more than 10 deminers who have lost their legs, and we lost two deminers during the explosive disposal,” Gasimov told RFI. He explains that, with Aghdam once close to the frontline in fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, the area was among the heaviest mined during the conflict. Azerbaijan lifts Armenia border restrictions, but hurdles to peace remain Clearing the mines Nagorno-Karabakh was historically home to a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. In 1993, they broke away from Azerbaijan, declaring a breakaway Republic of Artsakh. But in 2023, during a lightning war, Azerbaijani forces recaptured the region. With access to Aghdam still tightly controlled since the end of the fighting, RFI joined a small group of journalists on a trip organised by the Azerbaijani authorities. The city of Aghdam was once home to 40,000 people, predominantly Azerbaijani. Long a cultural centre of the region, the city was also home to Azerbaijan's most famous football club – Qarabag – which now plays out of the capital, Baku. Today, not a single house remains standing – all were razed to the ground, and even the trees didn't escape the conflict. It's a barren wasteland. The historical Juma mosque was one of the few buildings that survived, partially intact, and was used as a shelter for farm animals by ethnic Armenians. Imam Mehman Nesirov, 45, is the proud custodian of the fully restored mosque, where up to 100 worshippers now attend Friday prayers as life slowly returns to the city. Nesirov fled Aghdam in 1993 as a child: “We were forced to leave because of the sound of fighting, which was getting closer and closer. Everyone was terrified and panicked." Nesirov explained to RFI that he and his family spent the first years of their lives living in a railway wagon. “I will never forget those years. We always prayed to God that one day we could return and pray at this mosque,” said Nesirov. “We can't put into words how we feel that dream we had as a child, a teenager, and an adult is finally realised.” Azerbaijan must allow 'safe' return to Nagorno-Karabakh: UN court Returns and ruptures Around a thousand people have returned to Aghdam, all housed in new state-built accommodation, as the city itself remains uninhabitable. While Azerbaijanis are slowly returning, ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have now become refugees following the victory of Azeri forces in 2023. “What we saw within 24 hours was the forced expulsion of the remaining 110,000 Armenians from their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh,” said Richard Giragosiyan, director of the Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan think tank. “They were leaving behind whole homes, personal possessions, family graves, and coming to Armenia, which was more of a foreign country than many people understand,” added Giragosiyan. However, Giragosiyan claims that Azerbaijan's forces' success in Nagorno-Karabakh opened the door to a “diplomatic breakthrough,” with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan committing themselves to improving relations in the aftermath of the conflict. Baku in January opened its border to allow oil and grain from Kazakhstan to reach Armenia, which is important for Yerevan as it tries to rely less on Russia and move closer to Europe. In Aghdam's newest hotel, manager Aykhan Jabbarov welcomes rapprochement efforts between Yerevan and Baku.   Jabbarov, a veteran of the last Nagorno-Karabakh war whose family fled Aghdam thirty years ago, looks forward to a time when Azerbaijanis and Armenians can again live together in the city. “If we look to history, we lived together before now, every leader talks about peace … We have to build a good relationship. It will help both countries' economy, people's social life and the regional economy, everything.” However, diplomatic efforts to restore relations and normalise Armenian-Azerbaijani ties still have plenty of work ahead. With repercussions of the past never far away, Ruben Vardanyan, a leading member of the breakaway Armenian administration captured by Azeri forces, was convicted this week of war crimes and sentenced to 20 years in jail by an Azerbaijani court.

For 15 years, the New Start treaty bound the United States and Russia to curb their nuclear arsenals – until it expired earlier this month. Researcher Benoit Pelopidas tells RFI what hope remains for disarmament now that there are no longer fixed limits on the world's two largest nuclear powers. In what could mark a major turning point in the history of arms control, New Start expired on 5 February. Neither US President Donald Trump nor his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has shown interest in renewing it.  The treaty was signed between the United States and Russia on 8 April 2010 and came into force on 5 February 2011. Initially planned to last 10 years, it was extended for another five in 2021. Its goal was to limit each side to 800 missile launchers and 1,550 nuclear warheads, with the two countries authorised to inspect each other's stockpiles. It was never a global treaty. Other countries signed up to the broader Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which came into force in 1970 and now has 191 parties, including the US and Russia. But Washington and Moscow also had bilateral arms control agreements in place continuously since 1972 – until now, notes Benoît Pelopidas, an expert on nuclear threats at Sciences Po university in Paris. "But it would be false to deduce from that that the arms race has not started yet and might start now," he tells RFI.  "There are reasons to think that the arms race started as early as the spring of 2010." Europe confronts ‘new nuclear reality' as Macron signals broader deterrence role 'Possible acceleration' Even before New Start expired, implementation of the treaty deteriorated over time, culminating in Russia suspending its participation in 2023. "And now we're at a full level where it's no longer implemented at all," says Pelopidas. "It's new diplomatically, and it enables the possible acceleration of an ongoing arms race." NATO called for "restraint and responsibility" after the treaty expired. "Russia's irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive signals on nuclear matters reveal a posture of strategic intimidation," an official told French news agency AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. "NATO will continue to take the measures necessary to ensure its credibility and the effectiveness of its overall deterrence and defence position." The Kremlin had proposed continuing to comply with New Start's limits until February 2027, but the White House did not respond. Moscow considers the treaty's expiration "a negative development", Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "We express our regret in this regard." China shuns calls to enter nuclear talks after US-Russia treaty lapses Disarmament still possible According to Pelopidas, disarmament is possible and has been partially achieved before, especially in the early 1990s after the end of the Cold War.  "In 1991, we had 58,000 nuclear weapons on the planet. And we're now at a level of roughly 12,000 in 2025, which is a massive decrease," he says.  "We have, between 1986 and today, dismantled or retired over 80 percent of the existing arsenal in the world. So it is not materially impossible to dismantle or disarm." The world's remaining nuclear stockpile still has the potential to wreak huge destruction, he stresses, a fact that he believes should drive all nuclear powers to work towards de-escalation. "If the theory of nuclear winter is correct, a so-called limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan that led to the explosion of 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs – that is, roughly 1 percent of the existing arsenal – would lead to the death of 2 billion people by starvation due to its indirect consequences over two years," Pelopidas says. "That's how destructive the capacity of the existing arsenal is." Episode mixed by Erwan Rome.

Staunchly allied with Turkey, Somalia has become a flashpoint in Turkey's rivalry with Israel. Ankara recently deployed fighter jets to Mogadishu in the latest signal that it is determined to protect its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa after Israel recognised the breakaway region of Somaliland. In a conspicuous display of military strength, Turkish F-16 fighter jets roared over the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in late January. According to Turkish officials, the deployment was aimed at protecting Turkish interests and supporting Somali efforts to counter an insurgency by the radical Islamist group al-Shabaab.  It follows Israel's recognition of Somaliland in December, which Ankara condemned as a threat to Somalia's territorial integrity. Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel said the jets send a message to Israel: "Don't mess with our interests here." Somalia is poised to become the latest point of tension between the countries, he predicts. "I don't think they will fight, but they are both showing their colours. Israel's recognition of Somaliland and the Turks sending F-16s and drones are attempts to set limits to what the other party can do," he said. "Could it get out of hand? I don't know. It may." The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland Mutual suspicion The episode reflects broader strains in Israeli-Turkish relations, which remain fraught over Ankara's support of Hamas and Israel's war in Gaza. "It's a new chapter in the competition between the two countries, which are now the dominant military powers in the Middle East," said Norman Ricklefs, CEO of geopolitical consultancy Namea Group. According to Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Israel is not seeking to challenge the interests of Turkey or Somalia. Instead, she argues Israel's recognition of Somaliland and its commitment to deepening cooperation are motivated by the breakaway's state strategic location facing Yemen, where Houthi rebels launched attacks against Israeli cities last year. "The Houthis were the last ones who were still launching missiles against Israel, from the Iranian proxies. This is the most major threat for Israel," she said.  However, Lindenstrauss acknowledges that both sides increasingly view each other's actions with suspicion. "What Israel sees as defence, Turkey sees as something against Ankara." Rival blocs Turkey's suspicions could grow if Israel deploys military hardware in Somaliland to counter threats from Yemen, a move an anonymous Israeli expert suggested is Israel's aim. Ricklefs warns Israel needs to tread carefully, given the significant investments Turkey had made in Somalia over the past 15 years. Turkey has its largest overseas military base and embassy in Somalia, while Ankara has signed agreements with Mogadishu to explore potential energy reserves, as well as a naval accord. "Turkey is running the [Mogadishu] port, counterterrorism training, charities, NGOs, and all that kind of stuff. So it appears very important to Turkey's regional strategic ambitions," said Ricklefs. He noted that Somalia's location on the Horn of Africa, with coastlines in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, makes it "key for regional influence". With Somalia naval deal, Turkey steers into strategic but volatile region Lindenstrauss observed that the Turkish-Israeli rivalry over Somalia is further complicated by the emergence of two competing axes: "On the one hand, you see Greece, Cyprus, Israel, the UAE. On the other hand, you see Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar," she explained.   "They are loose axes, but you do see that on many issues, these two axes think differently. And that's also a cause of the rising tensions." Ricklefs noted that tensions have already spilled over into confrontation elsewhere. “We've already seen the pretty strong competition leading to violence in Libya, between blocs aligned with the Emirates and, on the other side, blocs aligned with Turkey in Libya," he said. As for whether the same could happen in Somalia, Ricklefs said he doesn't believe the situation has yet reached that point.  "I don't think we're there just yet with Somaliland and Somalia," he said. "And frankly, the only party that can play a mediating role, a conflict-reducing role, in this situation is the United States."

A meeting between the leaders of Greece and Turkey next week seeks to rejuvenate a stalled rapprochement process between the neighbouring countries, amid growing tensions and fears of an unpredictable intervention by US President Donald Trump. Wednesday's meeting in Ankara between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the latest in a series aimed at improving relations. It stems from the 2023 Athens Declaration, a formal statement of friendship that led to better economic cooperation and a cooling of military tensions over the disputed Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean Seas. Mitsotakis's visit comes at a critical time for the process. “I think it's very important, the meeting has been postponed twice in the past,” says former Greek foreign ministry advisor Panayotis Ioakimidis, who now teaches at the University of Athens. “There are some people within the [Greek] governing party, and outside it, who have serious reservations about improving or even talking about relations with Turkey,” he notes. “So it's very important for the meeting to happen, to keep cooperation going; otherwise, relations risk sliding into conflict.” Claims on the Aegean The talks come as tensions over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast untapped energy reserves – are on the rise. In January, the Greek foreign minister, George Gerapetritis, announced Greece's intent to exercise its right under international law to extend its territorial waters in the Aegean from six to 12 nautical miles, to create a marine park. Erdogan is expected to remind his Greek counterpart that any extension of territorial waters is a red line for Turkey. “Mitsotakis will get some lectures in Ankara,” predicts international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. In 1995, the Turkish parliament passed a motion declaring that Greece unilaterally extending its waters beyond six miles was a casus belli – cause for war. “Twelve miles [of] territorial waters for Greece means the Turkish ships cannot go one kilometre outside of Turkish territory. Turkey cannot accept this,” says Bagci. In response, Athens is using Greece's European Union veto to prevent Turkey from joining the EU's SAFE defence procurement programme until Turkey withdraws its threat of war. Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Alliance with Israel Adding to tensions, last December Greece and Cyprus signed a series of defence agreements with one of Turkey's fiercest rivals – Israel. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of seeking to encircle Turkey, while Turkish media dubbed it an “axis of evil”. Mitsotakis is expected to try to allay such concerns during his visit to Ankara. “The Greek side thinks it can separate these issues and keep them quite separate from the bilateral issues between Greece and Turkey,” says Ioakimidis. “But it's a very likely scenario to take the countries into very dangerous waters.” Israel's military support of Greece is to blame for Athens' more assertive stance in the Aegean, argues Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. He says that Greece acts more boldly when backed by others: “Once they enjoy the support of another, material or narrative, they are much more courageous to challenge.” If Greece maintains this approach, Aslan suggests, Turkey will likely go back to increasing its military activity. Prior to recent attempts at rapprochement, Turkish and Greek warplanes often challenged each another in mock dogfights in the disputed airspace over the Aegean. Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race Trump effect However, Trump could provide an impetus to contain tensions. With the American ambassador to Greece announcing this week that the US president will visit Athens, both Erdogan and Mitsotakis will be wary of Trump's involvement in their bilateral affairs. “I think both countries are concerned about this destabilisation to the international order that the Trump administration has brought,” says Ioannis Grigoriadis of Ankara's Bilkent University, a specialist in Greek-Turkish relations. “It may be a strong incentive for both sides to declare that things are OK, so let's keep Trump's intervention away from Turkish-Greek relations. I don't think that any side would like that to happen, given the circumstances and the unpredictability of such an intervention.” Wednesday's meeting is set to emphasise the economic benefits of rapprochement and regional cooperation. However, amid persistent Aegean tensions and Turkey's concerns over Israel's role, expectations for progress remain low.

After more than a decade of war, a surge of violence in northern Syria is forcing thousands of people to flee – even as others return to a fractured country under a fragile interim government. With two-thirds of the population in need of urgent assistance and the UN humanitarian response underfunded, the Danish Refugee Council's Charlotte Slente tells RFI why aid groups fear catastrophic consequences as cold weather and economic collapse push millions to the brink. Clashes in and around Aleppo have displaced around 170,000 people since mid-January, as the Syrian army seeks to extend its control over previously Kurdish-controlled areas. Ongoing hostilities between government forces and armed groups continue to trigger displacement in several parts of the country, according to the UN. While political transition is underway after the fall of Bashar al-Assad at the end of 2024, reconstruction and recovery efforts are hindered by instability and lack of funding.  Access to healthcare remains unreliable, and basic services are severely disrupted. A harsh winter and long-term drought are exacerbating the crisis. More than 16 million Syrians are expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2026 – yet the UN's response plan is only 33.5 percent funded, leaving a $3.2 billion gap. "It is an incredibly fragile moment for Syria," said Slente, secretary-general of the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), speaking to RFI on a visit to the Syria, including areas in and around Damascus.  "This is a country where two out of every three Syrians need humanitarian assistance, and 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line." A year after Assad's fall, Syrian hopes for transitional justice are fading Returning to ruins, landmines Around 3 million Syrian refugees and internally displaced people have returned home since the fall of the Assad regime, over 1 million from other countries and nearly 2 million from within Syria. "Syria has had a new government in place for the last year," Slente said, "and it's time to sort of recap on our programming here and adapt our programming to the new realities on the ground. A vast percentage of the population here are in dire need of humanitarian assistance on the ground." Many people are returning to their homes to find almost nothing after more than 13 years of civil war, she added. One of the DRC's priorities now is to work on getting rid of the landmines that still litter areas where fighting took place, and pose a deadly threat to returnees. The organisation recently finished training local teams to help clear mines, Slente said. "We are helping build the capacity here of the National Mine Action Centre in the Ministry of Emergencies that needs to coordinate that very big endeavour of clearing Syria of unexploded ordinance and landmines. It means that now we can get more jobs done on the ground with the clearing of mines, getting them out of fields and villages, so that people can actually be safe when they move around the territory." As Syrian workers return home from Turkey, local businesses feel the loss Upheaval in Kurdish north In north-eastern Syria, near the border with Turkey, civilians say they are still fearful. After months of tension, Kurdish-led forces have ceded swathes of territory to advancing government troops. Under a deal agreed last week, Kurdish forces and administrative institutions are to be integrated into the state. It is a blow to the Kurds, who had sought to preserve the de facto autonomy they exercised after seizing swathes of territory in battles against the Islamic State jihadist group during the civil war. "We are afraid that they will attack our regions and that massacres and genocide will occur," one woman told RFI's reporter in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli, where government forces entered on Tuesday. Another resident said he was hoping for "a positive resolution to the conflict, so that no more bloodshed occurs". This episode was mixed by Nicolas Doreau.

While polls say the majority of Turkish people welcome the departure of Syrians displaced by the civil war, Turkey's business owners are feeling the pinch with the loss of their workforce. With the end of the Syrian civil war, Turkey claims that nearly a million refugees who were living there have already returned home. Their departure is being welcomed by the Turkish government, amid growing public animosity over the presence of more than 3 million refugees. But for many Turkish companies, Syrians are an economic lifeline – as seen in Gaziantep, an industrial city close to the Syrian border.  The Inci Boya company is one of hundreds of small factories and workshops in the city. With a couple of dozen workers, hundreds of pieces of furniture are spray-painted each day. With long hours in air thick with dust, it's arduous, dirty work. As in many factories in Gaziantep, Syrians make up a large share of the workforce.  “I can't get people from my own community to work in my sector,” explains owner Halil Yarabay. "Many workshop owners and many businesses are unfortunately experiencing this.” He blames societal changes, “Our children, our youth... they consider such work beneath them. They consider they've failed in their family's eyes by working with their hands as a furniture maker or a mechanic.” French journalist arrested in Turkey while covering pro-Kurdish protest released Realities of returning But local authorities claim nearly 100,000 Syrians have already left the city – including including several who worked at Inci Boya. During a welcome tea break, the topic of going home is on everyone's tongue. Ahmed Hac Hussein has been working there for more than five years. He, too, is thinking of leaving. “Many people are returning,  I have a relative who moves a family back to Syria every day,” he said. “For me, I lived in Aleppo for 35 years. I have so many friends there, I haven't seen them for 14 years. I have three sisters there, and I haven't seen them either. I want to go.” However, Hussein, who lost his home in the war, acknowledges that the economic realities in Syria make returning difficult. “You need to have money to pay the monthly rent. You need a job, but there is no work. My brother went back to Aleppo, but he says business is too slow.” Listening is Hussein's son, Ibrahim, who started working here a year ago after leaving school. He feels differently: “I grew up here; this place became my second home. I love it here a lot. I was two years old when I came here, and I never went back. I don't want to go back.”   Demographic time bomb   Turkish companies such as Inci Boya will be hoping many Syrians feel the same as Ibrahim, claims Atilla Yesilada, Turkey's economic analyst for consultancy Global Source Partners. He says around 900,000 Syrians work in small businesses and factories across Turkey. “They've filled all the low-paying jobs. Without Syrians, business owners say they'll go bankrupt, since that keeps costs down." This reliance on Syrian workers, and their departure, also comes as Turkey faces a demographic time bomb. “The birth rate has declined substantially. The Turkish birth rate is 1.5, and you know, replacement is 2.1," Yesilada added. He warns the outlook for Turkey is grim, given the experience of other countries. "[The birthrate is] coming down significantly, and it's been going down for 20 years.… [the example of] China shows that there is nothing you can do about it.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently called on families to "serve the nation" by having at least three children. His minister of family and social services claimed nearly half of Turkish families didn't have children. To attract workers, visa and work permit restrictions were lifted last year for all Turkic Central Asian nations. Turkey blocks calls for regime change in Iran as protests escalate Rising costs But at the Inci Boya factory, owner Halil Yarabay is already counting the cost of Syrians leaving, and says a bidding war to keep these workers is beginning. "Labour costs are rising. Employees we paid 10,000 TL a week now cost up to 15,000," he said. Some larger companies in Gaziantep – such as Tat Holding, which makes furniture and sweets among many other products – are even considering following their workers back to Syria, says its CEO Salih Balta.  "Syria is close to Gaziantep and allows us to produce and export at up to 35 percent lower cost," he explained. Balta claims that producing in Syria – a member of the Arab League – would allow his company to export tax-free to 17 Arab countries under its free trade agreement. “For us, the Gulf countries are a very important market," he said. Gaziantep, along with many cities across Turkey, has seen protests against Syrian incomers. Several polls have found that the majority of people want them to return. But this could ultimately prove a double-edged sword, as businesses face growing economic pain over the loss of their Syrian workforce.

The Syrian Army has made sweeping gains against Kurdish-led forces in northeast Syria, dealing a major blow to Syrian Kurdish autonomy and handing victories to both Damascus and neighbouring Turkey. With Washington abandoning its backing of the militia alliance, the Syrian Democratic Forces now face disbandment or renewed fighting. Within days, Syrian government troops swept aside the SDF and took control of vast areas of territory. The offensive followed the collapse of talks on integrating the SDF into the Syrian Army. Washington's shift proved decisive. “The game changer was the American permission, the American green light to [Syrian President] Ahmed al-Sharaa. That opened the door to Damascus launching the offensive,” said Syria expert Fabrice Balanche, of Lyon University. The SDF had been a key US ally in the fight against Islamic State and relied on American support to deter an attack by Damascus. But with Islamic State now weakened and Sharaa joining Washington's alliance against the group, the Kurds lost their leverage. “Trump viewed the relationship as temporary, not a true alliance,” said Balanche, a municipal councillor with France's rightwing Republicans party. French journalist arrested in Turkey while covering pro-Kurdish protest released US withdrawal and rapid collapse As Washington ended its support, many Arab tribes quit the Kurdish-led coalition. They aligned with Damascus, allowing government forces to advance quickly in Arab-majority areas. Several prisons holding Islamic State members fell to government control, with reports that hundreds escaped. Fears of wider instability pushed Washington to broker a ceasefire between the SDF and the Syrian government. Under the deal, SDF forces are to disband and merge into Syrian government units, a move backed by Ankara. Turkey has strongly supported the Damascus offensive. It accuses Kurdish elements within the SDF of links to the PKK, which has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state. “Turkey is certainly behind all these operations,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. “The Turkish defence minister, General Chief of Staff, has recently been in Syria. So there is probably a common action.” Turkey blocks calls for regime change in Iran as protests escalate Kurdish tensions inside Turkey The assault has triggered protests by members of Turkey's large Kurdish minority in support of Syrian Kurds. It has also coincided with talks between the pro-Kurdish Dem Party, the Turkish government and the outlawed PKK aimed at ending the conflict. The PKK declared a ceasefire and pledged to disband last year, but talks stalled months ago. Ankara has blamed the deadlock on the SDF's refusal to join the PKK's disarmament commitment. The fighting in Syria could deepen Kurdish disillusionment with the peace process, political analyst Sezin Oney, of the Politikyol news portal, warned. “They pictured this peace process as a big win for the PKK that finally all these rights, all the political rights, cultural rights, everything would be recognized, and a new era would begin," Oney said. "It's not that, and it won't be that there is nobody in Turkey on the side of the government who was envisioning such a change or anything of the sort." The Dem Party had few options left. “The only thing Dem can do is rally the Kurdish public in Turkey, and it is just going to be disbursed,” Oney added. Syrian army offensive in Aleppo draws support from Turkey Risk of wider bloodshed Turkish police have broken up many pro-SDF protests using water cannon and gas, carrying out hundreds of arrests. French journalist Raphael Boukandoura was detained and later released, in a move rights groups said was meant to intimidate foreign media. Without US intervention, Damascus would push further into Kurdish-held areas, Balanche warned. “Sharaa will seize everything." The risk of large-scale violence, he added, was growing in a region marked by tribal rivalries and years of war. “Northeastern Syria is a very tribal area. The tribal leaders who are mobilizing their groups, their fighters, and they're attacking," Balanche said. “Because of 10 years of civil war, you have a lot of vengeance that was under the table, and now everything is exploding. So it could be very bloody.”

From tariff-funded refunds to tough talk with allies, trade has once again become a central theme of Donald Trump's White House. One year into Trump's second mandate, economist Gerald Friedman walks RFI through the reality behind the rhetoric and looks to how the administration may ultimately be judged. One year after Donald Trump returned to the White House, his second administration has wasted little time putting trade at the forefront of policy. Tariffs, the US president insists, are delivering an economic renaissance. Inflation has supposedly all but vanished. The stock market is booming. Trillions of dollars are said to be pouring into the Treasury, with the promise of tariff-funded cheques soon landing in American letterboxes. Critics, Trump has declared, are "fools". Strip away the slogans, however, and the picture looks far less flattering. According to Gerald Friedman, professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Trump's tariff-driven revival is built on shaky foundations – economically incoherent, politically vindictive and geopolitically destabilising. EU readies response to new US tariffs, France braces for fallout The numbers don't add up From an economist's perspective, Friedman says, Trump's claims barely survive contact with reality. “Almost nothing” in the president's upbeat assessment is true. Yes, the stock market is high, but only because a small group of technology giants dominates the indices. Remove them, and the wider market is essentially flat. The idea that tariffs are generating vast new revenues is equally illusory. Tariffs face an unavoidable contradiction: set them high enough to block imports and they raise little money; set them low enough to generate revenue and they fail to protect domestic industry. Either way, the notion that they are filling federal coffers with “trillions” is "fantasy". Friedman notes that “virtually no economists outside of those being paid through Donald Trump … support his tariff regime”, particularly given its random and unsystematic application. What is billed as strategic economic policy looks more like improvisation. Trump's first 100 days: Trade, diplomacy and walking the transatlantic tightrope Illusion of tariff-funded cheques The administration's proposal to issue tariff-funded “refunds” – between $1,000 and $2,000 per household in early 2026 – has clear populist appeal. Economically, Friedman argues, it makes little sense. The US already runs a federal deficit of roughly $1.7 trillion a year, around 6 per cent of GDP. Washington does not need tariffs to send out cheques; it can simply borrow more. The real question is whether it should, particularly after extending large tax cuts for the wealthy that continue to inflate the deficit. There is a deeper irony. Tariffs, Friedman points out, already constitute “the biggest tax increase as a share of GDP that this country has had since the early 1990s”, adding roughly $1,500 a year to household costs through higher prices. Refunding some of that money would merely hand back what had just been taken – while leaving the underlying economic damage untouched. Inflation, eggs and everyday living Trump has repeatedly pointed to falling egg prices as proof that inflation is under control. Friedman underlines that egg prices surged because of bird flu, not economic policy, and fell as the outbreak eased. They are down by about half, not by the 85 per cent the president boasts about – “one of the smaller lies”, as Friedman puts it. Elsewhere, tariffs are doing exactly what economists expect: pushing prices up. Imports such as coffee and bananas cannot realistically be replaced by domestic production. Taxing them feeds directly into the cost of living. Households are paying more, not less. The impact does not stop at consumer prices. Retaliation and uncertainty are quietly undermining export industries. China has cut back on US soybean imports, hurting farmers. Canada is actively reducing its reliance on the US market, deepening ties with Europe and China. Even sectors untouched by tariffs are suffering. Higher education – one of America's largest export earners – is losing foreign students as visas tighten and the country's tourism has also slumped. The combined effect, Friedman warns, is “higher prices and a reduction in employment and wages… ultimately, devastating to the US economy”. Europe's 'Truman Show' moment: is it time to walk off Trump's set? Gunboat diplomacy, with grudges attached For Friedman, Trump's economic policy cannot be separated from his personality. Tariffs have become instruments of pressure and punishment, often driven by personal vendettas rather than strategic calculation. Hostility towards Canada's former prime minister Justin Trudeau, for example, owed as much to personal dislike as to trade policy. This is where economics merges with geopolitics. The US, Friedman argues, is drifting away from the postwar, rules-based order it once championed towards something far older and harsher – “pre-1940”, rather than merely pre-1945. Trade policy is wielded like a weapon, diplomacy reduced to threat and coercion. “Nobody wants to be the one who sticks his head up,” to speak out, Friedman says. Corporate leaders and officials see what happens to dissenters and keep their heads down for fear of investigations, legal costs and political retaliation.  Occupy Wall Street protestors clash with police outside New York Stock Exchange A symptom of deeper failures None of this, Friedman stresses, emerged from nowhere. Echoing arguments made by Greek economist and former left-wing finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, he sees Trump as both cause and symptom. Decades of rising inequality, deindustrialisation and attacks on unions hollowed out large parts of the working class, particularly in the US and Europe. The 2008 financial crisis was explosive. Banks were rescued, executives kept their bonuses, and almost nobody went to jail. The lesson, Friedman says, was clear: the powerful play by different rules. Regions once loyal to centre-left parties – coal country in West Virginia, manufacturing towns across the Midwest – became some of Trump's strongest supporters. Trump did not invent these grievances, but he has channelled them into a politics driven less by repair than by ego and confrontation. Trump says Venezuela's Maduro captured in 'large scale' US strike Judging Trump in 2026 So how should Trump's second presidency be judged as it heads into 2026? Friedman offers a stark metric. Ignore the rhetoric and watch the behaviour of those with real power. Do Republican lawmakers rediscover a spine? Do corporate leaders decide that long-term stability matters more than short-term fear? If they do not, the outlook is bleak. “It's not only the America First agenda,” Friedman says, “it's Trump's personal, ego-driven agenda.” Protests may continue to swell, but without resistance from political and economic elites, the consequences will stretch far beyond the US. In 2026, the results will be difficult to spin away. Tariffs promise strength and sovereignty. What they are delivering, Friedman argues, is higher prices, weaker alliances and a dangerous slide towards a world the US once helped consign to history.

Turkey is opposing calls for regime change in Iran as security forces carry out a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests. The Turkish government accuses Israel of exploiting the unrest, and is leading efforts to block any military action against Iran – warning that a collapse of the regime could destabilise the region. Since protests began across Iran almost three weeks ago, Turkey has tried to play down the scale of the unrest. It has distanced itself from Western allies calling for regime change and avoided offering explicit support for those demands. The protests began on 28 December after a currency collapse triggered demonstrations by merchants and traders in Tehran. The unrest quickly spread nationwide. Activists say more than 2,000 protesters have been killed. Alongside Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar, Turkey has lobbied Washington against any military response to the killings. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said such a move would worsen the situation. “We oppose military intervention against Iran; Iran must resolve its own problems,” Fidan said. “We want the issue resolved through dialogue.” France summons Iran envoy over 'unrestrained' protest crackdown Fear of regional collapse According to The Guardian newspaper, US President Donald Trump's decision to step back from attacking Iran was influenced by Turkey and its Arab allies – who warned of regional chaos if an attack went ahead. Turkey fears that Iran could descend into civil war similar to Iraq after the collapse of its regime, said Serhan Afacan, head of the Ankara-based Center for Iranian Studies, adding the consequences would be more severe due to Iran's size and diversity. “Iran has a population of about 90 million, including many ethnic minorities such as Turks, Kurds, Arabs and Baluchis,” Afacan explained. “If a conflict erupts among these groups, it could result in a prolonged civil war. Any resulting immigration from Iran to Turkey could reach millions.” Turkey and Iran unite against Israel as regional power dynamics shift PKK security fears Turkey already hosts about three million refugees. Experts say Ankara's biggest security concern is the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, which has fought Turkey for an independent Kurdish state and has an Iranian affiliate, PJAK. Although the PKK announced a ceasefire last year and pledged to disband, Ankara fears unrest in Iran could give the group new opportunities, said Iranian expert Bilgehan Alagoz, of Marmara University. “Day by day, we have started to see the PKK groups in certain cities of Iran demanding some separatist demands, and this is the main concern for Turkey,” he said. Ankara also accuses Israel of exploiting the situation in Iran. “Israel has targeted all these PKK groups and tried to motivate the PKK groups inside Iran,” Alagoz said. “Any instability inside Iran can create a space for the PKK.” Fidan has also accused Israel of manipulating the protests. Turkey is already confronting another PKK-linked group in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which controls large parts of the country. Ankara accuses Israel of supporting the SDF, adding Iran to a broader Israeli-Turkish regional rivalry. France's Iranian diaspora divided over deadly protests back home Energy pressure Turkey could also clash with Washington over Iran if the protests continue. Trump has warned that countries trading with Tehran could face 25 percent tariffs. Iran supplies Turkey with about one-fifth of its gas needs, according to Atilla Yesilada, an analyst at the Global Source Partners think tank. “Iran pumps 10 billion cubic metres of gas to Turkey every year, roughly one-fifth of total consumption,” he said. That supply could theoretically be replaced by liquefied natural gas imports, but Yesilada warned that Turkey is already struggling to cut its dependence on Russia, its main energy supplier. “Combine this with increasing American and EU pressure to cut gas purchases from Russia, and Turkey is in a very difficult situation,” he said.

Turkey has backed a Syrian army offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, despite a fragile ceasefire backed by the United States. Aleppo has seen its worst fighting in years, as the Syrian army moved to oust the SDF from two large, mainly Kurdish neighbourhoods in the north of the city. The clashes began in late December and continued into January, forcing many civilians to flee. The SDF controls a large swathe of northern and eastern Syria. The offensive comes as efforts to integrate the SDF into the Syrian army stalled. “This is a warning. It is a kind of pressure on the SDF to come to a conclusion quickly, rather than to kick the can down the road with Damascus,” Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region, told RFI. Turkey's backing Ankara, which has recently reopened channels with Damascus after years of strained relations, strongly backs the offensive and has signalled its readiness to provide military support against the SDF. “Turkey has the military advantage there, and I believe the SDF should take these warnings seriously,” Selcen said. He is now an analyst for the Turkish news portal Medyascope. Turkey accuses the SDF of links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, which has fought an insurgency against the Turkish state for decades. The PKK is designated a terrorist organisation by the United States and the European Union. Turkey is also pursuing a renewed peace initiative with the PKK and sees the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army as key to stabilising northern Syria. US pushes Israel to accept Turkish role in Gaza stabilisation force Stalled integration In March last year, the SDF signed an agreement in Damascus to integrate with the Syrian army. The deal set out broad principles but left key questions unresolved. “There was a discrepancy from the beginning in what the parties understood integration to mean,” said Sezin Oney, of the Turkish Politikyol news portal. “In Turkey's case, they mean integration in such a way that it melts into the Syrian army. But the SDF understands it as integrating while protecting its inner core and identity. Remaining as the SDF, but operating under the umbrella of the Syrian army. “Unless one of the parties backs down and makes concessions, we are likely to see a bigger military operation.” International stakes On Thursday, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa held telephone talks with his French and Turkish counterparts on the security situation. The discussions focused on containing the fighting and preserving the ceasefire. Despite its precarious position, the SDF retains influential supporters. Israel, an increasingly vocal critic of Turkey's regional role, has expressed support for the group. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar condemned Damascus's operations in Aleppo. The SDF remains a key partner of the United States Central Command in operations against the Islamic State group in Syria. “The SDF lost a lot of troops, at least 10,000 fighters, in the fight against ISIS since 2014,” said Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel. “It's a complicated picture. But from the American side, I do not yet see signs they would allow an attack on the SDF at this moment.” According to Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and Washington's envoy on Syria, diplomatic efforts are under way to extend the Aleppo ceasefire and allow SDF fighters to withdraw from contested areas. Turkey fears Ukraine conflict will spill over on its Black Sea shores Pressure on Washington The duration of US support for the SDF remains uncertain, especially after last year's agreement between Washington and Damascus to step up cooperation against the Islamic State group. The issue has taken on added significance following President Donald Trump's meeting with Syrian President al-Sharaa in Washington. Given President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strong relationship with Trump, time may not be on the SDF's side, Oney said. “They want to have the northern part of Syria, at least, but also Syria more broadly, as their backyard,” she added. “Turkey is the most influential country in Damascus. They want the SDF to melt away into the new Syrian state and its army.” Turkey could face domestic political fallout for targeting the SDF. Protests have erupted in the country's predominantly Kurdish southeast, which borders Syria, in response to the clashes in Aleppo. Any further military action against the SDF could jeopardise the fragile peace process with the PKK. 

After years of negotiations, the Turkish military may finally be close to acquiring American F-35 fighter jets. United States President Donald Trump has suggested a deal could be near, despite Israel warning that the sale would threaten its security amidst rising tensions with Turkey. “We're thinking about it very seriously,” Trump said when asked by a reporter about the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey during a visit this week by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The sale has been blocked for years due to Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system. A recent Bloomberg report suggested Ankara may be prepared to return the missiles, though Turkish officials have denied this. Political commentator Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, says that the strengthening relationship between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan means both sides are working to resolve the impasse. “He [Trump] himself is working with Turkey through his very effective ambassador, Tom Barrack, to find a solution,” said Aydintasbas. “There will be stiff opposition from the Greek lobby, Israelis and other regional players. But we've seen Trump skirt such opposition when it came to the Saudi Arabia F-35 sale.” Military edge Israeli security experts warn that Turkey's acquisition of F-35 jets poses a greater security risk to Israel than the Saudi deal due to the Turkish military's expertise, which threatens to challenge Israel's technological advantage. Currently, Israel maintains a significant edge as the Turkish air force operates decade-old jets, a factor that is increasingly important amid rising regional tensions. “There was definitely a concern in the spring that there might be a confrontation in the skies of Syria between Israel and Turkey,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Syria in crossfire as Turkish-Israeli rivalry heats up over Assad's successors She stresses the risk of confrontation has significantly diminished thanks to “de-confliction talks”, brokered by Azerbaijan. A Syria “hotline” now exists between Israel and Turkey to prevent what Lindenstrauss describes as “accidents between the Israeli Air Force and the Turkish Air Force”. Yet the need for such measures underscores how strained ties are. “The fact that it exists, of course, does point to the fact that things are not necessarily calm,” Lindenstrauss acknowledged. Provocative alliances Israel's conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions with Turkey. On New Year's Day, hundreds of thousands protested in Istanbul in support of Palestinians. Tensions escalated further as Israel increased military cooperation last month with Greece and Cyprus. Both Greece and Cyprus have unresolved territorial disputes with Turkey in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. “Israelis are provoking especially Greeks and Greek Cypriots,” said Murat Aslan of Seta, a Turkish pro-government think tank. “The Israeli pilots are educating and training Greek pilots. They are operating [drones] across the Aegean Sea. And they sold many complex missile systems. So that means Israelis are provoking Greece just to challenge Turkey here in the Aegean Sea.” In his New Year's address, Erdogan said he was closely monitoring what he describes as threats and provocations against Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Aslan predicts Ankara will not remain passive. “If there is a pattern in the west of Turkey that Greeks and Israelis are cooperating, for the sake of Turkish security interests, for sure there will be a reaction,” he warned. Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant Greece, which is also acquiring the F-35, has joined Israel in opposing Turkey's purchase of the jet, warning it would alter the balance of power. While Trump has expressed support for the Turkish sale, analyst Aydintasbas notes the US president is learning the limitations of his power when it comes to Israel. “Trump is going through what a lot of US presidents have experienced: frustration, and a question – ‘wait a minute, who's the superpower here?'” she said. “Because of the power dynamic in the US-Israeli relationship, it sometimes does point to a situation in which Israelis, though the weaker side technically, end up having the upper hand because of their enormous influence in the public space.” Aydintasbas predicts that, despite Trump's friendship with and admiration for Erdogan, the US president will be unwilling to pay the political price of securing the Turkish jet sale. “This is an issue on which Trump is not willing to fight the US Congress... and essentially ignore the US law,” she said. For the self-described master dealmaker, it may prove a deal too far.

Washington is stepping up diplomatic efforts to address Israeli objections to a possible Turkish role in an International Stabilisation Force in Gaza, a move that could affect plans to disarm Hamas and advance US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan. Trump is due to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 29 December in Florida. The meeting is the latest attempt to revive the Gaza plan, which aims to move from a ceasefire towards the creation of a new governing arrangement in Gaza, the deployment of an international force and the disarmament of Hamas. On Friday, Turkish and Egyptian officials met their US counterparts in Miami. With a ceasefire in place in Gaza, Washington is pushing the next phase of its plan, which would include Turkish troops in an International Stabilisation Force. From Washington's perspective, Turkey's involvement is considered essential to the plan, said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution. Turkey and Iran unite against Israel as regional power dynamics shift Israeli objections Hamas disarmament depends on the creation of a new Palestinian governing entity and the presence of international peacekeepers, with Turkey acting as a guarantor, Aydintasbas said. “Without Turkey in this process, decommissioning Hamas weapons would not occur. That is implicit in the agreement.” Turkey's close ties with Hamas are well known, with senior Hamas figures reportedly hosted in Turkey. While Turkey's Western allies label Hamas a terrorist group, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said its members are liberation fighters. Trump has publicly thanked Ankara for using its influence to encourage Hamas to accept the peace plan. Israel opposes any Turkish military presence in Gaza, fearing Turkey would support Hamas rather than disarm it. Israel is also concerned about cyber attacks attributed to Hamas operating from Turkish territory and doubts Turkey would act in Israel's interests, said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a Turkey analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “There's a risk of an accident between Israeli and Turkish forces, given the already high tensions and suspicions. It's hard to see a positive outcome,” she said. Israel has struggled to persuade Trump to back its position. “The US has its own priorities, and is receptive to Ankara due to strong Trump-Erdogan relations,” Lindenstrauss added. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Turkey's position Erdogan, who has cultivated close ties with Trump, has said Turkey is ready to send soldiers to Gaza. Reports have claimed Turkey has a brigade on standby for deployment. Turkey's relationship with Hamas is a “double-edged sword”, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara. From Israel's point of view, Turkey is too close to Hamas, but “if you want to contribute to disarming them, dialogue is needed”. Any Gaza mission would be risky, but the Turkish army has decades of experience, Unluhisarcikli said. “It has a proven track record in terms of post-conflict stabilisation from the Balkans to Afghanistan. They have proven they can operate in such environments.” Despite strained diplomatic ties, the Turkish and Israeli militaries still maintain open communication. The two countries operate a hotline to avoid clashes between their air forces over Syria, demonstrating continued military coordination despite political tensions. Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Regional doubts Egypt and Saudi Arabia distrust Turkey's ties with Hamas and question its intentions in Gaza, Unluhisarcikli said, with concerns that echo memories of Ottoman-era rule. On Monday, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack met Netanyahu in an effort to ease Israeli concerns. However, prospects for a breakthrough are likely to depend on this month's meeting between Netanyahu and Trump. Incentives may be offered to encourage Israel to accept Turkey's role, but the issue is unlikely to be resolved that way, said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution. “Because this is such a fundamental and existential issue for Israel, I don't think incentives will work,” she said. “As to whether or not Trump would go so far as to withhold military or financial aid, it would be very unlikely. Rather, it may just let this situation sort of fester. I don't think the Americans have a clear plan to push forward if the answer from Netanyahu is to say no.”

For years, regional rivalries have limited cooperation between Turkey and Iran. Now, shared security concerns over Israel are providing common ground. During a recent Tehran visit, the Turkish foreign minister called Israel the region's "biggest threat". Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, hosted in Tehran by his Iranian counterpart Abbad Aragchi, declared that both countries see "Israel as the biggest threat to stability in the Middle East", because of its "expansionist policies". Ankara is increasingly angry over Israel's military operations in Syria, which it considers a threat to security. Syria's new regime is a close Turkish ally. With the Iranian-backed Syrian regime overthrown and Iran's diminishing influence in the Caucasus, another region of competition with Turkey, Tehran is viewed by Ankara as less of a threat "Ankara sees that Tehran's wings are clipped, and I'm sure that it is also very happy that Tehran's wings are clipped", international relations expert Soli Ozel told RFI. Ozel predicts that diminished Iranian power is opening the door for more cooperation with Turkey. Cooperation "Competition and cooperation really define the relations. Now that Iran is weaker, the relationship is more balanced. But there are limits, driven by America's approach to Iran", said Ozel. Murat Aslan of SETA, the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank, points out that changing dynamics inside Iran also give an impetus to Turkish diplomatic efforts towards Tehran. Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant "Iran is trying to build a new landscape in which they can communicate with the West, but under the conditions they have identified", observes Aslan. "In this sense, Turkey may contribute. So that's why Turkey is negotiating or communicating with Iran just to find the terms of a probable common consensus." However, warming relations between Turkey and Iran are not viewed in a favourable light by Israel, whose ministers have in turn accused Turkey of being Israel's biggest threat. Tensions are rising over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strong support of Hamas, which Ankara's Western allies have designated as a terrorist organisation. "Obviously, Israel does not want to see Iranian and Turkish relations warm as Israel sees Iran as an existential threat and hence anything that helps Iran is problematic from Israel's perspective", warns Turkey analyst Gallia Lindenstrauss at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack This month, Israeli security forces accused Hamas of operating a major financial operation in Turkey under Iranian supervision. Many of Hamas' senior members are believed to reside in Istanbul. American ally Israeli concerns over Turkey's improving Iranian ties will likely be exacerbated with Turkish officials confirming that a visit by President Erdogan to Iran has been "agreed in principle". Ankara also has a delicate balancing act to make sure its Iranian dealings don't risk antagonising its American ally, given ongoing tensions between Tehran and Washington. Good relations with Washington are vital to Ankara as it looks to US President Donald Trump to help ease tensions with Israel. "For Israel, the United States shapes the environment right now", observes Aslan. "The Turkish preference is to have an intelligence diplomacy with Israelis, not to have an emerging conflict, but rely on the American mediation and facilitation to calm down the situation", added Aslan.

A new Reporters Without Borders report warns of escalating danger for journalists globally, and highlights that deaths in Gaza at the hands of the Israeli military accounted for nearly half of all reporter deaths this year. The NGO's chief Thibaud Bruttin told RFI that Palestinian journalists were deliberately targeted, and also spoke about the violence spreading across Latin America and how hundreds of reporters remain imprisoned worldwide. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has warned that journalists are facing increasing dangers worldwide, with Israel emerging as the most lethal country for media workers for the third year running. In its annual report, the Paris-based watchdog says 67 journalists were killed over the past 12 months – and almost half of them died in Gaza at the hands of Israeli forces. Twenty-nine Palestinian journalists were killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during the reporting period, alongside what RSF calls "a whole strategy" by Israeli authorities that has severely restricted reporting on the conflict. The NGO's director Thibaud Bruttin told RFI that the pattern of deaths in Gaza cannot be dismissed as the tragic fallout of war. "There has been a whole strategy that has been put in place since October 2023," he explained. "First, there has been the decision to block the entry of Gaza to international journalists. Second, there has been a unit set up within the Israel Defence Forces to smear Palestinian journalists… and then we've seen massive strikes against journalists, which have been actually claimed as targeted strikes by the IDF." RSF says nearly 220 journalists have been killed since the Gaza war began in late 2023. Of those, the organisation believes 56 have been deliberately targeted. Bruttin stressed that RSF is not including people loosely associated with Hamas in that count, as some Israeli officials have claimed. “We're talking about journalists – reporters who have been working, some of them for years, with respected international outlets – and these independent reporters have been deliberately targeted by the IDF." The report also highlights one of the deadliest attacks on media workers this year – a so-called ‘double-tap' strike on a hospital in south Gaza on 25 August, which killed five journalists, including contributors to news agencies Reuters and the Associated Press. French unions take Israel to court for restricting media access to Gaza Information blackout A key concern for RSF is the ongoing block on independent media access to Gaza. Foreign reporters can only enter on tightly controlled military tours, despite sustained calls from media groups and press freedom organisations. The Foreign Press Association in Israel has taken the matter to court, challenging the IDF's decision to deny access. Bruttin said the case has reached a critical point. "There has been an intermediary decision by the Supreme Court... and we're expecting any time in the coming weeks a decision which should, we hope, enable the press to enter." He added that a combination of the restrictions and IDF smear campaigns has cooled global solidarity with Palestinian journalists. "The smear campaign … has had an impact on the solidarity among the profession," he said. "It has been very hard to attract the attention of news media globally, and these news media outlets have been very timid in voicing concern over the fate of Palestinian journalists." But the scale of the recent strikes appears to have shifted sentiment. According to Bruttin, the deadly attacks of 10 and 25 August prompted “an uptick in the interest of media around this”, allowing RSF to launch a major drive on 1 September that “blew away the smear campaign of the IDF”. With a fragile ceasefire now in place, he hopes momentum will grow around reopening access to Gaza and restoring independent reporting. 'Nowhere in Gaza is safe' says RFI correspondent amid call for global media access Beyond the Middle East While Gaza dominates the headlines, RSF's report shows that the risks for journalists are a global concern. Mexico remains one of the world's most perilous environments for reporters, despite government pledges of greater protection. Nine journalists were killed there in 2025 – the deadliest year in at least three years. Bruttin warns that the danger is spreading across Latin America. “The phenomenon has extended beyond the borders of Mexico,” he said. “We've seen journalists killed in Honduras, in Guatemala, in Peru, in Ecuador, in Colombia.” Around a quarter of all journalists killed this year were in Latin America, with many targeted by cartels, narco-traffickers and armed groups. This trend, he said, is “very concerning” and presents a serious challenge for governments attempting to safeguard reporters. Sudan and Ukraine also continue to be among the most dangerous places from which to report, with conflict making journalists prime targets on all sides. Global press freedom at 'tipping point', media watchdog RSF warns Journalists detained Alongside killings, RSF's report documents a surge in the number of journalists imprisoned for their work. As of early December, 503 journalists were behind bars in 47 countries. China tops the list with 121 detained, followed by Russia with 48 and Myanmar with 47. Bruttin believes the international community can do far more to secure the release of detained reporters. “We need to effectively, deliberately campaign for the release of journalists,” he said. He pointed to the case of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, who was released as part of a prisoner swap with Russia. “If governments prioritise the release of journalists, they can meet success.” He expressed particular concern for the 26 Ukrainian journalists detained by Russia, many “outside of any legal framework”. He told RFI that Ukraine has the ability to prioritise their release through prisoner exchanges, citing a recent precedent in which RSF helped confirm proof of life for a detained Ukrainian reporter, forcing Russia to acknowledge holding him. “He was part of one of the latest prisoner swaps,” Bruttin noted. Although the overall number of journalist deaths remains below the highs of the early 2010s, RSF says the deliberate targeting of reporters and the erosion of access to information are becoming worryingly entrenched.

Ankara is voicing alarm over a spate of attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea, with fears that strikes on ships carrying oil and other key commodities could threaten global trade and pose environmental dangers to Turkey, which has the longest coastline in the strategic sea. The Turkish government on Thursday summoned both Russian and Ukrainian envoys, warning them to desist from escalating the conflict in the Black Sea. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the past week's attacks on three Russian tankers as "unjustifiable". Kyiv said its drones targeted two of the vessels, and Moscow has warned it may consider striking the ships of countries supporting Ukraine if such attacks continue. "This escalation is very dangerous; no one can estimate what will happen," warns international relations expert and former Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin. "Putin says he will use reciprocity rights. This means some of the [Russian] submarines could attack not only Ukraine but also some of the Western NATO allies' tanker ships," he explains, a possibility that raises the threat of "a very big environmental disaster". Shadow fleet Kyiv has claimed responsibility for the drone attacks on two empty Russian-flagged tankers but denied involvement in the strike on a ship carrying sunflower oil to Georgia. The Russian tankers belong to Moscow's so-called "shadow fleet", which is used to circumvent international sanctions by carrying oil and other exports aboard ships not officially registered to the government.  Given Turkey's long Black Sea coast, fears of an environmental catastrophe are foremost for Ankara. "These shadow fleet tankers are not modern and are not in good condition," observes former Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp. "The Russians provide their own domestic insurance for these ships," he says. "But how useful and how valid these insurances will be [...] remains a question mark." How one man's ship-spotting hobby is helping thwart Russian sanction-busting Trade implications With Ukrainian forces destroying much of Russia's navy in the Black Sea, Moscow has limited capacities to protect its tankers. Ukraine has so far targeted only empty Russian tankers, but alarm bells are ringing on the potential implications for global trade. "Both Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of basic food and agricultural commodities," notes analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners. "Despite massive bombing, Ukraine's grain export capacity is largely intact and is taking the coastal route. So any impairment of that is bad for the world at a time when we are not certain of crop yields because of the ongoing drought elsewhere." Insurance premiums for cargo ships using the Black Sea have already spiked amidst the escalating conflict. Ankara wary of escalation Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with his NATO counterparts this week, broaching the topic of ensuring safe navigation of the vital sea trade route. Turkey is already cooperating with its partners in the alliance that share the Black Sea coast, Romania and Bulgaria, to clear sea mines. Fidan said that cooperation could be expanded to enhance shipping security.  However, any increased NATO involvement in the Black Sea would be borne mainly by the Turkish navy, given that the Romanian and Bulgarian navies are largely coastal forces. Ships belonging to navies outside the Black Sea have been shut out by Ankara since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, along with Russian warships. Turkey, under the 1936 Montreux Convention, regulates access to the sea and is only allowing warships to enter to return to their home ports. Turkey's mediator role in the Ukraine war faces growing US pressure Former diplomat Kuneralp claims Ankara will be cautious of getting drawn into any conflict in the Black Sea. "It would put all the burden on Turkey alone. What would it do? Would it try to intervene in a dispute between Russia and Ukraine? That's unlikely. I would not want that to happen because it would be too risky," he says. "And that's perhaps why there have not been any concrete actions since the start of the war other than talk." For now, Turkey – one of the few countries with good relations with both Kyiv and Moscow – is relying on diplomacy, and hoping that Washington's ongoing peace efforts will succeed.

As Paris wrestles with political deadlock, questions are mounting over France's ability to project strength abroad. RFI spoke to author and political strategist Gerald Olivier about the ongoing political crisis in France and its repercussions abroad. France is once again mired in political turmoil after the National Assembly last week overwhelmingly rejected the revenue side of the 2026 budget. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is trying a new method: rather than attempting to push a full budget through a fractured parliament, he aims to break spending into "absolute priorities" – security, energy, agriculture and state reform – and put each item to MPs separately. The move is intended to avoid another budget showdown, after two years of governmental instability that have steadily chipped away at President Emmanuel Macron's authority. Critics, however, argue that the plan is merely a repackaged version of political improvisation – a delay tactic that risks further weakening France's credibility at home and on the world stage. Jean-François Husson, the Senate's general rapporteur for the budget, delivered one of the sharpest criticisms of Lecornu's move, describing it as a chaotic and ill-timed intervention. "If you want to give the French a dizzying ride, you could hardly do it better than this," he remarked, arguing that the government's approach was generating more confusion than clarity. For author and political strategist Gerald Olivier, there is a deeper problem. "France is sick, and France has been sick for a while," he says. "We're basically looking at a country with no government, no parliamentary majority and a total impossibility for any prime minister to put forward a credible programme." French lawmakers roundly reject income part of budget bill, send it to Senate France technically needs to pass its budget by 31 December, but Olivier is quick to point out that this deadline has been missed before. "Last year, the budget wasn't passed until February," he notes. If the same thing happens this time, the government can fall back on a temporary financial law that keeps spending aligned with the previous year's budget for up to 70 days. A more drastic option – to rule by decree – exists as a constitutional backstop. "This crisis exists because there is no majority in parliament," Olivier says. "And it's also because no party has had the courage to face the kind of medicine that France needs. That's the larger issue." International credibility As a major European power, France's domestic politics do not stay domestic for long. International investors and European Union partners are watching closely, especially after recent warnings from credit-rating agencies about France's deficit trajectory. According to Olivier, the damage is already evident. "France is already in a recession, and there are investments simply passing the country by," he argues. "No one knows what its tax status will be in the coming years." That uncertainty could have a ripple effect across the continent. France, he warns, risks becoming "economically weak and therefore politically weak within Europe", potentially deepening divisions between EU member states. France's economy minister warns latest credit downgrade a 'wake-up call' "The one reassuring piece of news is that France is not the only one in this situation. Germany is in dire shape, Italy is shaky, Sweden is having problems. It seems today that everyone in Europe is the sick man of Europe," he added. Periods of political instability often attract external opportunists – whether governments, speculators or hostile influence campaigns. But Olivier remains cautious when asked whether foreign actors are already exploiting France's woes. "I don't necessarily see it," he says, "but if you want to consider fictional scenarios, you could find many." France's EU membership, he argues, offers a buffer. "Having the EU behind you is reassuring. The idea of ‘Frexit' would be disastrous. The euro provides protection." Still, the consequences of weakened governance can extend beyond the economy. A fragile budget could force France to scale back overseas military deployments – a shift that could alter power dynamics in parts of Africa and the Middle East. "This kind of instability is not healthy for anyone," Olivier says. A president without momentum Macron's political capital has been in decline since the 2022 legislative elections, when he lost his absolute majority. The surprise dissolution of the Assembly after the 2024 European elections only worsened matters, splitting the parliament into three mutually hostile blocs. "It's done tremendous damage to Macron," Olivier says. "He was re-elected in 2022 because people didn't want Marine Le Pen. He didn't have the support he had in 2017, and disappointment set in." He argues that Macron himself triggered the crisis. "He dissolved the Assembly for no reason. The European elections had no influence on French politics, but he reacted as if they did – and he made things worse." Could the president break the deadlock? In theory, yes. "Macron could solve it instantly by resigning," Olivier notes. "That would trigger a new presidential election, followed by fresh parliamentary elections. That's how institutions are supposed to function." But he sees no sign that Macron intends to take that step. For now, he predicts "another 18 months of instability" with the possibility of yet another government reshuffle. "We've had four governments in 12 months. We could have a fifth one next year. There is no telling." France's Le Pen asks Bardella to prepare for 2027 presidential bid Eyes on 2027 With Macron unable to stand again, attention is already turning to the 2027 presidential race. The National Rally – headed by Marine Le Pen and her rising protégé Jordan Bardella – enters the campaign in a strong position. Republican Bruno Retailleau could emerge from the right, France Unbowed's Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Socialist Olivier Faure from the left. Names from the centre such as MEP Raphaël Glucksmann and the former prime minister from Macron's Renaissance party, Manuel Valls, have been floated too. Olivier's concern is not who the candidates are but how honest they will be about the situation. "No one is willing to say the country needs to make sacrifices," he warns. "France is in debt up to 115 percent of GDP. Public spending is too high. But nobody wants to tell voters that the social state cannot remain as generous as it is." He singles out one controversial, far-right figure: "The only person honest about the economic reality is Éric Zemmour – and there is zero chance he will be the next president."

Turkey's role as a mediator in the Ukraine war is coming under strain as Washington advances its own peace efforts and urges Ankara to loosen its ties with Moscow. The pressure comes as Volodymyr Zelensky met Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, where Turkey repeated its offer to restart talks with Russia. Erdogan told reporters alongside Zelensky that Turkey was ready to resume the “Istanbul Process”, the term Ankara uses for earlier talks between Ukraine and Russia. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Erdogan has strengthened ties with Vladimir Putin and has said those relations help efforts to end the fighting. But Sinan Ciddi, of the US think tank the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said Washington's latest actions suggest Ankara's influence is fading. Ankara's mediation, he said, had not produced results for either the Trump administration or its Western allies and has done little to move the conflict closer to a ceasefire or peace deal. “Washington is going its own way,” said Ciddi. US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading Washington's peace efforts, did not attend the meeting in Ankara despite earlier reports he would. Some analysts say Ankara overplayed its hand by suggesting it could use its ties with Putin to deliver a summit that never happened. Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant Changing diplomatic landscape Russia-Turkey expert Zaur Gasimov, of the German Academic Exchange Service, said Ankara's role has been weakened, with other countries such as Hungary now seen as possible venues for talks. Donald Trump's decision to deal directly with Moscow, he added, reduces the need for Turkey as a go-between. “Russia at the moment is not interested in any kind of peace negotiations with Kiev. But Putin and Moscow are interested in direct negotiations with the United States on this issue and possibly other issues,” Gasimov said, adding that Russia still values its ties with Ankara. “For Russia, contacts with Turkey are of paramount importance, being isolated by anti-Russian sanctions.” Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Energy pressure on Ankara Erdogan has refused to enforce most Western sanctions on Russia, saying his relationship with Moscow is needed to build peace. But during Erdogan's September visit to Washington, Trump told him to end imports of Russian energy, which make up around half of Turkey's needs. Erdogan appears to be responding, as Russian oil imports have fallen in recent weeks. Ankara is also trying to strengthen its security ties with the European Union. Direct summits between Putin and Erdogan were once common but are now rare, with their meetings limited to the sidelines of international events. “There is clearly a move, more effort to restore and bolster relationships with the Western world,” former Turkish ambassador Timur Soylemez told RFI. Trump tests Turkey's energy dependence on Russia with lure of US power Balancing relations with Russia Soylemez said Ankara will still try to avoid harming its relations with Moscow. “The view from Ankara is that it's never a zero-sum game. Actually, the trick is to prevent it from being a zero-sum game. I think that would be an ongoing effort right now,” Soylemez said. Turkey's ability to balance both sides, he added, remains important for a long-term peace. “Turkish diplomacy and Turkey in general have shown there is a role for us to play,” Soylemez said. “For example, the Black Sea, when it comes to prison exchange, when it comes to de-escalation on different topics. Basically, because we have a channel to both sides and we're trusted by both sides.” Turkey is working with its Black Sea NATO partners on mine clearance. Analysts say this could later help secure safe passage for Ukrainian ships under a peace deal. But the targeting on Monday of a Turkish-flagged ship carrying a gas cargo at the port of Izmail in Ukraine by suspected Russian drones shows the risks Turkey faces as it tries to strengthen relations with Western allies without provoking Moscow.

Israeli-Turkish relations were dealt another blow when a Turkish court issued an arrest warrant on genocide charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials, a move strongly condemned by Israel. As bilateral relations deteriorate, Israel is stepping up defence cooperation with Turkey's rivals, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. Turkey has ongoing territorial disputes with both – over maritime and airspace rights in the Aegean Sea, and the division of Cyprus following Turkey's 1974 invasion of the island. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north of the island is recognised only by Turkey. Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli claims Israel's deepening partnerships with Athens and Nicosia is aimed at countering the growing threat posed by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "The doctrine of Erdogan is extremely dangerous. It's extremely dangerous for Israel, and we see Erdogan's Turkey as the new Iran, nothing less. It's very dangerous for Cyprus and it's very dangerous for Greece," said Chikli. This month, Israeli and Greek warships held joint military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean. The drill followed similar exercises by the country's air forces. While Ankara played a key role in bringing about a ceasefire in the Gaza war, tensions have continued. "We saw Turkey issuing arrest warrants against 37 high-level Israelis, but I think it also relates to the fact that the ceasefire is fragile. We are not entirely sure we are moving in a positive direction," said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Defence talks However, Lindenstrauss claims the Gaza ceasefire has opened the door to an acceleration in deepening cooperation with Greece. "We see the ceasefire is definitely seen as the green light to proceed in cooperation. We see defence deals... serious defence deals are being discussed," she added. Israeli ministers visited Athens this month for defence talks. Israel has already sold Greece and Cyprus some of its most sophisticated weapons systems, causing alarm in Ankara. "We see an alignment of the Greek, Greek Cypriot [sic] and Israeli navies. One cannot deny the risk that this will embolden them [Greece and Cyprus]... with Israeli support,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc, of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. Cyprus could become an increasingly focal point for Turkish-Israeli rivalries, given its strategic location. The United Kingdom has two military bases on the island, with the United States having a presence on these. Turkey, meanwhile, has an air base in the soi-disant Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. "The island is like a static aircraft carrier; it can dominate the whole of the Middle East and Turkey as well," warns former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik, who is now a journalist. "A fighter plane that lifts off from Cyprus can get to Ankara in 15 minutes maximum. Turkey wants the island to be a security zone for itself. Plus, the Turks have even thought about setting up a new naval and airbase." Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Turkey's recent purchases of Eurofighter jets, along with a missile development programme encompassing hypersonic and ballistic capabilities, are also fuelling Israeli concerns. "It's not clear why a status quo actor should have such a missile programme," said Israeli analyst Lindenstrauss. "For example, Israel doesn't have a missile programme despite the many threats it faces. I think middle and long-range missiles do suggest this is something more related to offensive intentions... I think all actors that have tense relations with Turkey are watching these developments," she added.  Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan's approach to divided island US influence US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack sought to downplay tensions, dismissing any threat of conflict between Turkey and Israel. “Turkey and Israel will not be at war with each other. In my opinion, it's not going to happen. And you are going to get alignment from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean," he said, speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue, a Middle East security forum, on 1 November.  US President Donald Trump, who retains powerful influence over both governments, regional analysts suggest, could play a key role in managing, if not resolving tensions, given his goal of bringing peace and stability to the region. "[Washington] are very concerned. This is a topic that gets a lot of people's attention. The United States has certainly been trying to mediate and sort of bring tensions down,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank. Guvenc doesn't rule out a reset in regional relations, but warns that for now the region remains in the grip of an escalating arms race, fuelilng further mistrust and the risky strategy of "my enemy's enemy is my friend". "We have partnerships – alliances of convenience, pragmatic, tactically motivated alliances – but you never know. I mean, Turkey and Israel may mend fences, and this may create a totally different strategic, regional geopolitics than the one we are talking about today. So everything is in flux, and the balances and the alliances may shift in a very short time."

Europe's pursuit of “strategic autonomy” has become more urgent than ever. In this edition of The International Report, Jan van der Made examines how the continent's defence ambitions continue to be both shaped and constrained by reliance on the United States. With insights from experts Bart van den Berg and Guntram Wolff, the programme considers whether Europe can develop the industries and alliances necessary to stand independently in an uncertain world.

Anti-Turk protests in Montenegro have added to rising tensions between Serbia and Turkey. The unrest was set off by anger over Ankara's sale of weapons to Kosovo, and growing fears of Turkish influence in the Balkans. “Turks out!” shouted protesters as they marched through Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Several Turkish-owned businesses, among the country's largest investors, were ransacked during last month's violence. The clashes were sparked by a knife attack on a Montenegrin citizen by Turkish nationals. After the unrest, Montenegro imposed visa requirements on Turkish visitors. Some opposition parties accused Serbia of stoking the protests, pointing to rising friction between Belgrade and Ankara over the arms sale to Kosovo. “There are those accusing the Serbian region of being behind it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, told RFI. “Although I have seen no material evidence.” Widening rift While Serbia has not commented on the accusations, it has the capacity to incite such unrest given its strong influence in Montenegro, Vuksanovic said. “The drama involving Montenegro has built up to this difficult atmosphere in Serbian-Turkish relations,” he said. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic last month accused Turkey of trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire through the sale of sophisticated drones to Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 1999. Analysts say the weapons deal could shift the balance of power in the region. “There are the kamikaze drones, which are posing a threat, and there are also strategic drones likely to be used to secure the border itself and more as a show of force,” said Zoran Ivanov, a security expert from the Institute of National History in Skopje, North Macedonia. “So it poses a direct security threat to Serbia and Serbia has to react to this.” Criminalising identity: Turkey's LGBTQI+ community under threat Changing alliances The tension marks a sharp turnaround. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built a close relationship with his Serbian counterpart, and Turkish companies became major investors in Serbia. However the arms sale to Kosovo reveals a shift in Turkey's relations with Belgrade, explained international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. “Turkey has more leverage than Serbia,” Bagci said. “The relations between Turkey and Serbia, we understand each other, but it is not as happy as before.” Analysts say the shift reflects Ankara's wider ambitions in the Balkans. “Ankara is trying to increase its influence and will do it,” said Bagci, adding that Turkey's historical and cultural ties to the region run deep – with millions of families tracing their roots back to the former Ottoman territories. “The Ottoman Empire was a Balkan empire. The Turkish influence is getting bigger, and of course, they don't like it. But Turkey is the big brother in the Balkans.” Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan's approach to divided island Turkish expansion Last month, Turkish forces took command of NATO's KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. At the same time, Turkish businesses continued expanding across the region. “They're expanding their markets; they're expanding their capabilities; they're expanding their influence,” Ivanov said. Turkey's renewed focus on the Balkans was unsurprising given historical ties, he added. “That's natural for the Turks to come to invest in the region and now looking for their old roots." However its expanding presence might feel like history repeating itself, Ivanov warned. As “a man who is coming from the Balkans,” he said, he sees “the Turks coming as they were in history” – a reminder of a past many in the region have not forgotten. The European Union has praised Ankara for supporting peacekeeping operations and economic aid in Kosovo. But analysts caution that Turkey must avoid alienating its Balkan neighbours. “Ankara also has to be mindful of its own limitations of its own Balkan ambitions," Vuksanovic. said. "Because otherwise it can push majority Christian Orthodox nations like the Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians to work against the Turks if the Turks are perceived to be too provocative or aggressive.”

International human rights groups are calling for the withdrawal of proposed legislation against Turkey's LGBTQI+ community, who warn that the law could effectively criminalise their community, which is already facing a growing legal crackdown. This week, the New York-based Human Rights Watch called on the Turkish government to drop a proposed law targeting the country's LGBTQI+ community. Amnesty International has made a similar demand. Rights groups sound the alarm The proposed legislation, which was leaked to the media, criminalises attitudes and actions deemed contrary to biological sex, carrying sentences of up to three years in prison. “It's really one of the worst reforms, or proposed reforms, we've seen in many years,” warns Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch. “Because it basically says that the government or the authorities can decide that certain behaviour and attitudes are contrary to biological sex and general morality, and are criminal on that basis.” Turkey's Pride struggling to survive amid LGBTQ+ crackdown Widespread impact Sinclair-Webb claims that with the proposed law criminalising the promotion of the LGBTQI+ community, its impact would be far-reaching. “That could affect journalists reporting on matters connected with gender, sexuality and gender identity. It could mean NGOs working to defend the rights of LGBTQI+ people from stigmatisation and discrimination.” Since the foundation of the Turkish Republic in 1923, homosexuality has never been criminalised. But LGBTQI+ rights advocates warn that this could change, given the broadly written nature of the proposed law. “It's not even same-sex sexual acts that are criminalised. It's just your appearance. Because the law says anything against biological sex. I mean, it could be very widely interpreted,” explains Öner Ceylan of Lambda a LGBTQI+ rights group in Turkey “So, this could be a woman with short hair or wearing trousers,” adds Ceylan. “Let's say I'm on the streets, I'm being myself, and I can go to jail for it for three months. Then I'm released, and what happens next? I can easily go back to jail according to that law. So it can be a perfect excuse to imprison an LGBTQI+ person.” Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Decade of crackdowns Under the proposed law, people could face between three months and three years in prison, opening the door to lengthy pre-trial detention and the risk of mass arrests  - a prospect that worries rights groups. Since the early 2000s, Turkey's LGBTQI+ community has become increasingly visible and vibrant, particularly in Istanbul, with gay clubs, cafés and bars. The city once hosted large Pride marches, with the 2015 event drawing over one hundred thousand people. However, for the past decade, Turkey's religiously conservative government has been cracking down on the community in the name of protecting the family. Pride marches have been banned since 2015. “Now they've banned any kind of LGBTQI+ event in the public sphere,” explains Yıldız Tar of Kaos, an LGBTQI+ group. “We no longer share public venues or their addresses. So we are already living a kind of criminalised life, as if many queer people coming together is a criminal activity, which it is not.” Tar warns that the proposed law represents the endgame in the government's campaign. “It's the result of a decade-long war against LGBTQI+ people, and if this law passes, this is the last step.” Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Rising rhetoric and rising In September, the Turkish Interior Ministry filed a criminal complaint against openly gay pop singer Mabel Matiz, alleging that one of his songs violated morals and obscenity laws. Meanwhile, an all-women pop group, Manifest, was detained under the country's morality laws for one of their performances, prompting the group to end their sell-out national tour. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been ramping up his rhetoric against the LGBTQI+ community, even equating it with terrorism. The proposed legislation also targets the country's transgender community, banning gender-affirming healthcare for those under the age of 25. The LGBTQI+ community has vowed to step up its protests against the law and has secured the support of Turkey's two main opposition parties in opposing it. But Tar warns that if the law passes, many in the community will likely flee the country -  though he says he and others are ready to resist, whatever the cost. “We will continue to do our work, to share the very basic knowledge that being LGBTQI+ is not a threat to society. It's not a threat to the family,” declares Tar. “But it will be harder, and most of us will end up in jail.”

The landslide defeat of Turkey's ally in the Turkish Cypriot elections could now force President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to drop his push for a permanent partition of Cyprus and boost efforts to reset ties with the European Union. Securing 63 percent of the vote, Tufan Erhurman's victory in last weekend's election took Erdogan by surprise. “The defeat was so big, 63 percent was such a landslide, Ankara was really shocked,” said former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik. Erhurman's Republican Turkish Party backs a united island. Erdogan supported incumbent Ersin Tatar, whose National Unity Party wants two separate states. “Ankara had amassed all its political clout on the island," Cevik added. "It had sent its vice president five times to the island; it had sent numerous delegations led by deputies and mayors.” It failed to win Turkish Cypriots over because “the essence of it was Turkey's interference, which created huge resentment among the Turkish Cypriots”, Cevik said. Cyprus has been split since Turkey invaded in 1974. Erdogan had pushed for international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Shift away from partition Analysts say Erhurman's win has dealt a final blow to Erdogan's two state strategy for Cyprus. “The two independent states idea was dead on arrival, and now it's officially dead,” said Soli Ozel, of Kadir Has University's International Relations Department. He said Erdogan's reaction to the election points to a change in approach. “President Erdogan's message of congratulations to [Erhurman] suggests at least for the moment he's ready to turn the page on that.” Erdogan's stance is very different to that of his coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, who called for the result to be overturned and for the north of the island to be integrated with Turkey. Former Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp said the election gives Erdogan a chance to drop a policy that has become a growing obstacle to improving EU defence relations. Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances EU ties on the line Cyprus has long blocked Turkey's hopes of deeper EU defence cooperation and access to a 150 billion euro arms programme known as SAFE. “So far, everything has been blocked by the Cyprus problem,” said Kuneralp, adding that the election result offers a rare opening. “Now you've got these election results that open a small window. So that's why the present situation might not be so bad for Erdogan.” European governments see Turkey as an important partner in defending themselves against Russia. A shift to unification talks could suit both sides, analyst Soli Ozel said. “Given Russia's proclivities, it makes sense for [Turkey] to be part of SAFE. And it doesn't make sense for the Europeans because of the Greek and Greek Cypriot opposition to leaving Turkey out,” he said. Erdogan's Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Changing priorities EU leaders have new priorities that could help clear a path. “The European Union is no longer the European Union of our grandmothers; the issues of human rights and rule of law no longer count for anything," Ozel said.  "That's a relation that is cleared of its thorns.” Turkey's backsliding on democracy has long held back cooperation with Brussels. Human rights is not expected to feature much during German Chancellor Frederick Mertz's visit to Ankara later this month. Deepening defence ties is set to top the agenda, but how far Erdogan supports unification could decide his next steps with the EU.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey wants to take part in rebuilding Gaza and is ready to join a peacekeeping force once the fighting ends, however analysts warn strained relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv could stand in the way.  Turkey responded to a call from Hamas for assistance with locating the bodies of Israeli hostages still unaccounted for in the ruins of Gaza, sending specialists to help in the search. Ankara maintains close ties with Hamas, which some analysts say could make it a useful mediator – although strained relations with Israel could stand in the way of any peacekeeping or reconstruction mission, despite Turkey's experience in these areas. “Turkey does have expertise for this – it has a doctrine,” said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government think tank. “In Afghanistan, Bosnia, some African countries like Somalia or Sudan, and in Kosovo, Turkey contributed either through its Tika aid agency, responsible for reconstruction, or through its armed forces.” Aslan believes Turkey's approach would be similar in Gaza. “Turkey will send soldiers for sure, for the protection of the civilian units,” he said. Hamas says committed to Gaza truce and returning hostage remains High risk However, others warn the mission would not be easy. “Turkey can become part of this protection force, but it will not be easy. At the moment it seems more problematic than many people assume,” said Huseyin Bagci, an international relations professor at Ankara's Middle East Technical University. Bagci fears Gaza could slide into chaos as rival groups fight for control. “There are fights between Hamas and the clans,” he said. “It will not be easy because Hamas has to give up its weapons, which is the primary condition. Hamas is not 100 percent trusting Turkey – if not, Israel will probably act.” Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Deep mistrust Any Turkish deployment would also require Israel's consent, which appears unlikely given the collapse in relations between the country's leaders. Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have regularly traded insults since the start of the current conflict in Gaza, and Ankara's vocal support for Hamas has further deepened mistrust. Israeli analysts say the government is hesitant to allow Turkish troops in Gaza, citing deep tensions and mistrust between the two countries. Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv said there is little enthusiasm for involving a Muslim peacekeeping force, as any casualties could inflame anger across the Muslim world and worsen relations. “This conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions between Turkey and Israel, particularly between the two leaders,” she added. Counting on Washington Any Turkish role in Gaza would likely need US backing to move forward, given Israel's resistance, observers warn. Aslan believes Washington could help bridge the divide. “Erdogan does have a charming power over Hamas,” he said. “So it's on Turkey to urge Hamas to accept some things, and it's on the United States to push Israel to accept the terms of a long-term peace. I believe that Trump is well aware of it, because there is no trust of Israel. That's a fact, not only for Gazans or Palestinians or Turks, but [across the world] overall.” Aslan says trust would be essential to persuading Hamas to disarm. “I believe Hamas will lay down their arms when they feel safe, and they have to see friendly faces in Gaza to be persuaded." Erdogan's Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Road to normalisation Turkish involvement in Gaza could also help pave the way for a reset in relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Bagci believes Erdogan is hoping for political change in Israel to make that possible. “There will be elections,” he said. “Erdogan [is counting on] Netanyahu losing. But if he wins, then he has to deal with him because both sides have to be pragmatic and realistic.” Bagci said much of the fiery rhetoric from both men is aimed at domestic audiences, with both having reputations as political survivors and pragmatists. If peace efforts gain ground, observers say cooperation in Gaza could offer a path towards rebuilding trust – and serve both countries as they compete for regional influence. (with AFP)

In this edition of International Report, RFI talks with David Ondracka, former president of Transparency International Czech Republic, about the country's recent parliamentary elections. Populist billionaire Andrej Babiš has swept back into power after voters, frustrated by unfulfilled promises and a stagnant quality of life, turned their backs on the centre-right government. According to Ondračka, Babiš's resurgence reflects deep public disillusionment with the political establishment - alongside his skill as a pragmatist who “tells people whatever they want to hear.” While Brussels voices unease over his return, Ondračka argues that Babiš is neither aligned with Moscow nor guided by ideology. Instead, he describes him as a tycoon whose loyalties lie squarely “where the money is” - inside the European Union. Czech populist's comeback a win for politics of pragmatism in shifting Europe As the Czech Republic enters coalition talks and joins Hungary, Slovakia and Poland in navigating a shifting political landscape, Ondračka warns that Europe's populist wave is far from receding, continuing to test the strength of the liberal centre.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing growing pressure from Washington to cut Turkey's heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas – and end his long-standing balancing act between Moscow and the West. Erdogan said this week that Turkey would work with the United States on civil nuclear energy, in a new signal to Washington that Ankara is looking west for its energy needs. Turkish companies last month signed a 20-year, multibillion-dollar deal with American firms to buy liquefied natural gas. The agreement came during Erdogan's visit to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump in late September. During that meeting, Trump urged Erdogan to reduce ties with Moscow and end Turkey's reliance on Russian oil and gas. “In a sense, he [Trump] is offering a grand bargain to Erdogan,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution. She summed up the deal: “Stop the hedging, stop the stuff with Russia, stop the geopolitical balancing, and then let's re-establish the partnership, and then we can move along and can really become key partners in the region.” Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade Economic pressure Trump often praises Erdogan as a “friend”, but the US leader has shown he is willing to use economic pressure. During his first term, he triggered a collapse in the Turkish lira over the jailing of an American pastor. He could again target Ankara with secondary sanctions if Turkey keeps importing Russian energy. Russian fossil fuels still provide nearly half of Turkey's total energy. Zaur Gasimov, a Russian-Turkish expert with the German Academic Exchange Service, said Europe's experience shows how costly a sudden break with Moscow could be. “It was the case with some Western European countries in 2022 that caused an augmentation of the prices,” said Gasimov. “And the Turkish economy is struggling with inflation that would immediately and heavily affect the life of the average citizen. No party power in Turkey would take such a decision.” Ankara has ruled out ending its Russian energy contracts, but oil imports from Russia have fallen to their lowest levels in a year. Some gas deals, signed decades ago, are due for renewal. Analysts say Turkey may use that moment to slowly cut its dependence on Moscow – a move that would deal a serious blow to Russia, which now relies on Turkey as its last major European gas customer. Druzhba pipeline: dependence, diplomacy and the end of Russian leverage in Europe Strategic balancing Energy trade has long been at the heart of Erdogan's personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The partnership has survived the war in Ukraine, despite the fact Turkey also supplies arms and support to Kyiv. Turkey's balancing act helps keep regional rivalries under control, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the Marshall Fund office in Ankara. “Turkey and Russia have been fighting proxy wars in the Caucasus, in North Africa, in the Levant,” he said. “Turkey is getting the upper hand in the end. But Turkey could still manage its relationship with Russia.” Unluhisarcikli added that Ankara would want guarantees from the West before distancing itself from Moscow, since "it would have security implications on Turkey". Turkey would have to be "certain" that it would be welcomed back to Europe and have assurances from the United States, he suggested. Erdogan spoke with Putin by phone this week, though such contacts have reportedly become less frequent as their once-close relationship cools. Ankara remains aware of the risks: when Turkey accidentally shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian border in 2015, Putin responded with sanctions that hit Turkish exports and tourism, and several Turkish soldiers in Syria were later killed in what Moscow called an accident. Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties Declining leverage With Russia weakened by sanctions and isolation over its war in Ukraine, analysts say its influence on Turkey is diminishing. “It is the window to Europe. It is a way to the outside world," Gasimov says. "The number of flights to Turkey is getting bigger and bigger. “For Russia, Turkey remains a very, very important partnership. So the leverage Moscow once possessed over Ankara is getting less and less.”

As efforts continue to resolve Israel's war in Gaza, the conflict is threatening to destabilise the wider region. A rare joint naval exercise between once-rivals Turkey and Egypt is being seen as a warning to Israel, as long-standing alliances shift and new rival partnerships take shape across the Eastern Mediterranean. After a 13-year break, Turkish and Egyptian warships last week carried out a major naval drill in the Eastern Mediterranean. The exercise is the latest step in repairing ties after years of tension that began when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ousted Mohamed Morsi, a close ally of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “It marks the consolidation of the improvement in relations,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, adding the drill sent “a powerful message to Israel of a new alignment”. Guvenc said naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean have typically involved Cyprus, Greece and Israel, but this time Egypt broke with those countries, signalling it was no longer part of the anti-Turkey camp in the region. Erdogan's Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Shift in alliances The Turkish-Egyptian exercise follows years in which Cairo built strong ties with Ankara's rivals in the region. The shift has not gone unnoticed in Israel. “Definitely, this is a major event that Turkey and Egypt have conducted a naval exercise after so many years,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. The joint drill comes as Ankara has expanded and modernised its navy in recent years. Lindenstrauss said this has unsettled some of Turkey's neighbours, giving Israel common ground with Greece and Cyprus. “Some of them also have quite big disputes with Turkey, such as Cyprus and Greece,” she said. “Greece and Cyprus relations with Israel have been developing since 2010. We've seen a lot of military drills together. We saw weapons procurements between the three actors, and this has been going on for some time. So Israel is not alone.” Turkey has long-standing territorial disputes with Greece and the Greek Cypriot government in the Aegean and the Mediterranean. Guvenc said Israel has gained the upper hand over Turkey in their rivalry centred on Cyprus. "The Greek Cypriots acquired a very important air defence system from Israel and activated it. They made life far more difficult for the Turkish military, in particular for the Turkish Air Force," he said. "This gives you an idea about the shifting balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean as a result of Israel taking sides with Cyprus and Greece." Macron and Erdogan find fragile common ground amid battle for influence Tensions over Gaza Despite those rivalries, Turkey and Egypt are finding common ground in their opposition to Israel's war in Gaza and in wider concerns over Israel's growing regional power. In September, Sisi reportedly called Israel an enemy. “There is competition over who is the most dominant and important actor in the Middle East, in the Muslim world in general,” said Lindenstrauss. “I really can't imagine a unified Turkish and Egyptian action against Israel. I can imagine them cooperating to pressure Israel to change its position, which is what is happening now.” Cairo and Ankara remain at odds over Libya, where they back rival governments. But analysts warn that the fallout from the Gaza conflict is increasingly shaping the region's power calculations. Guvenc said the outcome of peace efforts could determine the future balance in the Mediterranean. “We see an alignment of Greece, Greek Cypriots and Israel. But once the Gaza issue is tackled, from an Israeli perspective, Turkey is strategically more important than these two countries,” he said. “But if the strategic makeup of the region may not secure a solution, we may see deterioration in the general situation. Then outside actors will be invited by one side or the other, such as Russia, China or even India, to further complicate the issue.”

When Truman Burbank finally realises that his life is a television show – every neighbour an actor, every event scripted – he faces a terrifying choice: walk through the exit door into the unknown, or carry on in a comfortable illusion. Is this is the predicament Europe is facing under Donald Trump's second term? In his report for the European Sentiment Compass 2025, Pawel Zerka, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests Europe is living its own “Truman Show moment”. The United States, he says, is no longer the ally Europeans had been accustomed to having. Instead, under Trump, Washington is not only pulling the strings in trade, defence and digital disputes – it is waging an outright “culture war” on Europe. The big question is whether the EU has the courage to step off the set, reclaim its autonomy and begin writing its own story. Europe's uncertainty after Trump's first 100 days Trump 2.0 Transatlantic tensions are nothing new. Rows over trade, NATO spending and climate policy have flared under every president from Kennedy to Obama. But Zerka insists that Trump marks a rupture. “There is a clear difference vis-à-vis previous presidents, and even vis-à-vis Donald Trump 1.0,” he told RFI. “Before, we had never seen a US president targeting Europe so clearly and aggressively.” This time round, the barbs are sharper, the interventions more deliberate. Trump openly mocks Europe's migration and climate policies, last week using the world stage of the United Nations to declare that Europeans are “going to hell” with their “crazy” ideas. Such rhetoric, Zerka argues, is not just bluster. It is part of a deliberate strategy to humiliate Europe, a way of painting the European Union as weak, dependent and incapable of agency. And this culture war is not confined to speeches, Zerka says – the Trump administration has moved from commentary to active interference. In Germany, US Vice President JD Vance and former Trump advisor Elon Musk openly backed the far-right AfD party during the country's legislative elections in February. Similar interference was seen in Poland, Romania and Ireland, where Washington lent support to Conor McGregor, a former mixed martial arts champion who had thrown his "Make Ireland Great Again" hat in the ring for the country's upcoming presidential election on 24 October, but withdrew from the race in September.  McGregor's political ambitions had been boosted by an invitation to the White House on St Patrick's Day, with Trump calling him his "favourite" Irish person. “We haven't seen anything like this before,” Zerka stresses. “There's such active involvement in domestic politics of European countries, supporting rivals of the governments in place – and very often those rivals are problematic political players.” “There is a lot of appetite among the European public for an assertive Europe, but leaders keep finding themselves in situations where they look ridiculous and Europe gets humiliated” – Pawel Zerka Europe's new right: how the MAGA agenda crossed the Atlantic A Truman moment So what does it mean for Europe to “walk off the set”? In Truman Burbank's case, it was about courage – daring to leave behind the artificial comfort of a staged life. For the EU, Zerka says, it is about dignity and identity. “European leaders must be ready,” he argues. “Currently they are buying time with Trump, because they depend so much on America for security, especially with Russia's war in Ukraine. But the danger is that by playing along, they risk repeated humiliation – whether at NATO summits or in trade negotiations – where Europe ends up looking ridiculous to its own public and to the wider world.” The challenge, Zerka believes, is that many EU leaders still don't grasp the true nature of the confrontation. They treat disputes over tariffs or defence spending as technical haggles, missing the larger picture – that they are part of a cultural battle over values, sovereignty and the very meaning of the West. Without that recognition, Europe risks stumbling from one Trump-scripted crisis to another, always reacting, never setting the agenda. The role of the prophet In The Truman Show, it was a character named Sylvia who first whispered the truth to Truman, that his life was staged. In today's Europe, Zerka sees Denmark as playing that role. Trump's suggestion that the US might buy Greenland directly questioned Danish sovereignty, giving Copenhagen a unique impetus for defending European autonomy. “Denmark is the one country really trying to show Europe the difference between reality and illusion,” Zerka says, adding though that Sweden and Finland, both scarred by the Russian threat and largely resistant to Trump's personal appeal, could also be well placed to push for European autonomy. Then there are what he calls the “door holders”, the heavyweight countries whose choices could swing the EU's future one way or another: France, Germany and Poland. Each stands at a crossroads. Elections in the coming years could see them drift towards the pro-Trump “director's crew” – Hungary, Italy, Slovakia – or rally behind the prophets calling for strategic autonomy. The outcome, Zerka warns, will determine whether Europe claims its agency or sinks deeper into dependency. Can Europe withstand the ripple effect of the MAGA political wave? Walking the line However, with Russian aggression on its doorstep, Europe cannot simply sever ties with Washington. Yet, Zerka argues, the notion that Europeans must appease Trump to preserve the transatlantic bond is a fallacy. “It's completely the other way around,” he says. “Only if Europe steps up in building its own capacities, and shows assertiveness, can it become a real partner rather than a subordinate.” That means investment in defence, technology and energy resilience. It also means recognising the culture war for what it is, and refusing to be defined by Trump's caricatures. Trust in the EU is its strongest since 2007, with polls showing that citizens increasingly view the bloc not just as an economic club but as a community of shared values, and destiny. Zerka believes European leaders must harness the public appetite for a more assertive Europe. The risk of inaction, he warns, is cultural subordination. The reward of courage, by contrast, is the chance for Europe to write its own story, and participate in the transatlantic partnership as an equal.

Turkey has hailed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's first White House visit in six years as a diplomatic win, though tensions over Donald Trump's support for Israel's war in Gaza still cast a shadow. Ankara is celebrating a diplomatic win after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hosted by US President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday. In the Oval Office, Trump praised his guest in front of the world's media. “He's a highly respected man,” Trump said. “He's respected very much in his country and throughout Europe and throughout the world, where they know him.” Erdogan smiled as he listened. The Turkish leader had been frozen out by President Joe Biden, who made clear his dislike for the Turkish leader. Trump, by contrast, has long cultivated a friendship with him. But even that relationship has limits, with Israel's war on Gaza still a source of strain. Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade Restraint over Gaza Erdogan is a strong supporter of Hamas, which he refuses to label a terrorist group, calling it instead a resistance movement. Yet he chose not to let the issue overshadow his visit. Analysts say this restraint was deliberate. “There's been a concerted effort not to get into a spat about Gaza,” Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told RFI. “Uncharacteristically, he remains silent on the Gaza issue and that is by design.” During his trip, Erdogan kept his criticism of Israel's offensive in Gaza to remarks at the UN General Assembly, echoing broader international condemnation. He also met French President Emmanuel Macron in New York and welcomed France's recognition of a Palestinian state. Erdogan is also seeking wider backing as concerns over Israel's actions grow, an issue that also came up in his talks with Trump. “Turkey's concerns with Israel are not actually limited to Gaza,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara. He said Ankara is also uneasy about Israel's actions in neighbouring states, adding that the two countries' policies towards Syria clash sharply. “Turkey wants a stable Syria and one that's centralised,” he said. “Whereas Israel wants a decentralised and less stable Syria.” Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Energy and Russia Turkey's close ties with Russia risk becoming another flashpoint. Sitting beside Erdogan at the Oval Office, Trump called for an end to Turkish purchases of Russian energy. He also criticised Erdogan's long-standing policy of balancing relations between Washington and Moscow. “Trump does not want a balancing Turkey, at least today,” said Aydintasbas. “That was more obvious than ever in his rhetoric and his dealings with Erdogan.” She said Erdogan had assumed for the past decade that his balancing act between the West and Russia was acceptable. “It must come as a surprise,” she added. Turkey is the third-largest importer of Russian oil and gas. But in a move seen as an attempt to placate Trump, Ankara this week signed a multibillion-dollar deal to buy US liquefied natural gas over 20 years. The two leaders also signed a strategic agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, which could pave the way for Turkey to buy US-made nuclear reactors. As Trump rails at UN and shifts Ukraine stance, Macron urges US to end Gaza war Limited gains Despite these gestures, analysts said Erdogan achieved little in return. He had hoped Trump would lift a US embargo on the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets. Instead, Trump only gave a vague promise to address the issue. For Erdogan, however, the White House meeting itself may have been the main prize. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said before the meeting that Trump wanted to give Erdogan “legitimacy”. “For Erdogan, this is a big win,” said Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies. The Turkish leader, he said, has long sought a White House photo-op to showcase at home. “He gets to show that he has met the US president, has gravitas on the world stage and is signing deals with Washington,” Ciddi added. “At a time when he is jailing leaders and dismantling democratic governance inside Turkey, he is being legitimised by the leader of the so-called free world.”

The legal noose is tightening around Turkey's main opposition party, with waves of arrests targeting mayors and local officials. But the troubles of the Republican People's Party (CHP) could deepen further, as a court case threatens the removal of its leadership. "We are fighting for the future of Turkey's democracy," said party leader Ozgur Ozel to tens of thousands of supporters at a rally in Ankara on Saturday. Ozel has been travelling the country since March, when Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested on graft charges. The case marked the start of a legal assault on the CHP. Ozel now speaks at rallies twice a week, despite his often hoarse voice. The party is also defending itself in court over alleged voting irregularities at a congress two years ago that elected Ozel as leader. If the court rules against them, Ozel and the rest of the party leadership could be removed and replaced by state-appointed trustees. "It's unprecedented," said political analyst Sezin Oney of the Politics news portal. "There has not been such a purge, such a massive crackdown on the opposition, and there is no end in sight, that's the issue." Macron and Erdogan find fragile common ground amid battle for influence Arrests and polls On Wednesday, another CHP mayor in Istanbul was jailed, bringing the total to 16 detained mayors and more than 300 other officials. Most face corruption charges. The arrests come as the CHP's new leadership is stepping up its challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Recent opinion polls give Imamoglu and other CHP figures double-digit leads over the president. Oney said the prosecutions are part of Erdogan's wider strategy. "He's trying to complete the transformation, the metamorphosis as I call it, of Turkey to become a full authoritarian country," she said. "There is an opposition but the opposition is a grotesque opposition, that can never have the power actually to be in government. But they give the perception as if the country is democratic because there are elections." Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal raises hopes of Turkish border reopening ‘Multi-front attack' Ilhan Uzgel, the CHP's foreign affairs coordinator, said the party is under siege. "We are under a multi-front attack from all directions at almost every level, running from one court case to another," he said. He argued that Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is using fear to force defections. "Sixteen of our mayors are in jail right now, and they threaten our mayors. You either join our party or you face a jail term," Uzgel said. Erdogan rejects any suggestion of coercion and insists the judiciary is independent. Since he came to power more than 20 years ago, however, not a single AKP mayor has been convicted on graft charges – though on Friday at least two local mayors from the ruling party were detained as part of a corruption investigation. Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Political risks Despite appearing dominant, Erdogan may face a backlash. Atilla Yesilada, a political analyst with Global Source Partners, said the crackdown is fuelling public anger. "You look at recent polls, the first complaint remains economic conditions, but justice rose to number two. These things don't escape people's notice; that's what I mean when I say Erdogan took a huge political risk with his career," he said. Erdogan currently trails behind several potential challengers, but elections are still more than two years away. Yesilada said much depends on the stance of Erdogan's ally Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party. "It's quite possible at some point, Bahceli will say enough is enough, you are destroying the country, and may also end the coalition," he said. Bahceli formed an informal alliance with Erdogan in 2018, when Turkey switched to a presidential system. Erdogan relies on Bahceli's parliamentary deputies to pass constitutional reforms needed to secure another term. Bahceli has voiced concern about the pressure on the CHP, which has been trying to win his support. But with the court expected to rule next month on the party's leadership, the CHP says it will keep fighting. "The only thing that we can do is rely on our people, our electorate, and the democratic forces in the country. We are not going to give up," said Uzgel.

Following years of tension, the presidents of Turkey and France are finding new areas of cooperation. Ukraine is at the centre of this shift, but the Palestinian territories, the Caucasus and Africa are also emerging as shared priorities. However, analysts warn that serious differences remain, making for an uneasy partnership. French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for the creation of a military force to secure any peace deal made between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey, which boasts NATO's second-largest army, is seen as a key player in any such move – especially given that Washington has ruled out sending US troops. For its part, Ankara has said it is open to joining a peacekeeping mission. “Macron finally came to terms [with the fact] that Turkey is an important player, with or without the peace deal. Turkey will have an important role to play in the Black Sea and in the Caucasus,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. Macron last month held a lengthy phone call with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, focused on the Ukraine conflict, and thanked him for his diplomatic efforts to end the war. Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties Turning point For Professor Federico Donelli of Trieste University, this marks a dramatic turnaround. Previously, the two leaders have frequently exchanged sharp words, especially over Turkey's rising influence in West Africa and the Sahel. “In Paris, public opinion and the press criticised this move by Turkey a lot,” said Donelli. “At the same time, the rhetoric of some Turkish officers, including President Erdogan, was strongly anti-French. They were talking a lot about the neocolonialism of France and so on.” Donelli added that cooperation over Ukraine has pushed France to reconsider its Africa stance. “As a consequence of Ukraine, the position of France has changed, and they are now more open to cooperating with Turkey. And they [understand] that in some areas, like the Western Sahel, Turkey is better than Russia, better than China,” he said. Analysts also see new openings in the Caucasus. A peace agreement signed in August between Azerbaijan, which was backed by Turkey, and Armenia, which was supported by France, could provide further common ground. Macron last month reportedly pressed Erdogan to reopen Turkey's border with Armenia, which has been closed since 1993. Turkish and Armenian officials met on the countries' border on Thursday to discuss the normalisation of relations. Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade 'Pragmatic cooperation' But clear differences remain, especially when it comes to Syria. The rise to power of Turkish-backed President Ahmed al-Sharaa is seen as undermining any French role there. “For Erdogan, the victory of al-Sharaa in Damascus on 24 December is the revenge of the Ottoman Empire, and Ankara doesn't want to see the French come back to Syria,” said Fabrice Balanche, a professor of international relations at Lyon University. Balanche argued that France is losing ground to Turkey across the region. “It's not just in Syria, but also in Lebanon – the Turks are very involved, and in Iraq, too. We [the French] are in competition with the Turks. They want to expel France from the Near East,” he said. Despite this rivalry, Guvenc predicted cooperation will continue where interests align. “In functional terms, Turkey's contributions are discussed, and they will do business, but it's going to be transactional and pragmatic cooperation, nothing beyond that,” he said. One such area could be the Palestinian territories. Both Macron and Erdogan support recognition of a Palestinian state and are expected to raise the issue at this month's United Nations General Assembly. For now, shared interests are likely to outweigh differences – even if only temporarily.

The bombing of the Druzhba pipeline has disrupted oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia and exposed new political rifts in Central Europe. RFI spoke with Andreas Goldthau of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy about the wider implications for regional energy security and the shifting dynamics between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. The bombing was attributed by Russian and Hungarian officials to Ukrainian drone forces, with Ukraine justifying the strike as part of its broader campaign against Russia following the latter's invasion in 2022. The strike resulted in oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia being cut off, and also exposed political divides at the heart of Central Europe's energy security, sparking a diplomatic fallout between Kyiv, Budapest and Bratislava. "The bombing drives home the point that Russian energy supplies remain a point of contest, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, which remains dependent on [oil] coming from the east,” said Andreas Goldthau, director of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy at the University of Erfurt in Germany. Pipeline dispute shows Central Europe's struggle to cut ties with Russian oil 'Not a matter of supply' Despite EU-wide efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy – which Goldthau acknowledges is "no longer a big issue for Europe as a whole" – Hungary and Slovakia stand as outliers, locked into long-term contracts and dependent on the Druzhba line. When the pipeline was struck multiple times in August and September, forcing a halt to crude deliveries, both governments were forced to draw on strategic reserves. But how Hungary and Slovakia are coping, is “more a political choice than anything else," Goldthau told RFI. "It is not a matter of supply, but a matter of price and transport logistics, because it could eat into the margins of refineries if you have to source it from other parts and other geographies." Central Europe, he added, “could source through ports in Croatia, and they could have done this already by now, but they chose not to”. 'A political decision' Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government responded to the strike angrily, calling it “an attack on Hungary's sovereignty”. The country's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, said: “Ukraine knows very well that the Druzhba pipeline is vital for Hungary's and Slovakia's energy supply, and that such strikes harm us far more than Russia.” Both Budapest and Bratislava have demanded EU intervention and accused Kyiv of jeopardising their security, just as reserves were being tapped to keep refineries running. From Washington to Warsaw: how MAGA influence is reshaping Europe's far right Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested the attacks might hinge on Hungary lifting its EU accession veto, warning: "The existence of the friendship depends on what Hungary's position is." Ukrainian officials also say that Hungary and Slovakia have failed to diversify away from Russian oil, despite ample opportunity and EU support. According to Goldthau, Russian leverage over the EU "is gone, by and large". He explained: "The EU's main suppliers are now the United States and Norway. Kazakhstan comes into play, but Russia no longer plays a role." Ukraine, he noted, “no longer gets any Russian oil or any Russian gas, it merely functions as a transit country”. The attack and subsequent diplomatic spat might have provided Hungary and Slovakia “a perfect occasion to pivot and seek alternative supplies, but it's a purely political decision to do that or not,” Goldthau said. "Whatever changes that [decision] lies at home, and not abroad."

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned of military action against the Syrian Democratic Forces over its failure to honour an agreement to merge its military with the new regime in Damascus. In a move steeped in symbolism, Turkey's leader chose recent celebrations marking the Ottoman Turks' defeat of the Byzantine Christians at the Battle of Malazgirt in 1071 to issue an ultimatum to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). "Those who turn to Ankara and Damascus will win," Erdogan bellowed to thousands of supporters on 26 August. "If the sword is unsheathed, there will be no room left for pens and words." Turkey, a strong ally of Syria, has a military presence in the country and the two governments recently signed a defence training agreement. But Turkey is unhappy with the presence of the SDF, a coalition of Kurdish and Arab forces, which controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey's own predominantly Kurdish region. Peace or politics? Turkey's fragile path to ending a decades-long conflict Buying time The SDF is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has for years been fighting Turkey for greater Kurdish minority rights. The PKK is listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the European Union and the United States. But Ankara is engaged in a peace process with the Kurdish militants, who have committed to disbanding. However, Kurdish analyst Mesut Yegen, of the TIM think tank in Istanbul, says the disarmament process would be limited to Kurds from Turkey, and doesn't include SDF forces in Syria. Erdogan is now ramping up pressure on the SDF to honour an agreement its leader Mazloum Abdi signed in March with Syria's new President, Ahmed Al Sharaa, to merge his military forces with the new regime in Damascus. The deal is backed by the US, which has a military force in the SDF-controlled region as part of its war against the Islamic State. But, according to Fabrice Balanche from Lyon University: "The SDF has no intention of implementing the agreement made in March. Mazloum just wanted to gain time." Balanche points out that Abdi's SDF is a staunchly secular organisation and remains deeply suspicious of Sharaa's jihadist connections. Recent attacks on Syria's Druze minority by forces linked to Sharaa appear to confirm the SDF's fears over merging with the Damascus regime, says Balanche. Syria's interim president vows justice for Druze after deadly clashes 'Israel would like a weak Syria' At the same time, Erdogan is aware that the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish state on its border could be exploited by its rival Israel, which is looking for non-Arab allies in the region. Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat and an analyst for Turkey's Mediyascope news outlet, said: "Strategically, Israel would like a weak Syria, a weak Damascus, a weak Beirut and a weak Tehran." Turkey has carried out military incursions against the SDF, and its forces remain massed on the border. But Balanche says American presence there will likely deter any new Turkish military action. However, he warns that Ankara could seek to fuel Kurdish Arab rivalries within the SDF, with the fall of former ruler Bashar al-Assad last December. Turkey walks a fine line as conflict between Israel and Iran cools "It is different now, you have a Sunni leader in Damascus, and many [Arab] tribes, many people, prefer to join Damascus," he explained. "So the risk is a proxy war. Of course, for the new regime, it would be a disaster. If you have no peace, you have no investment, you have no trust." The dilemma facing Ankara is that any new conflict against the SDF would likely weaken the Sharaa regime – a key ally.

Turkish armed forces could play a major role in securing any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. For Ankara, this would be a chance to reassert itself at a time when many fear it is being sidelined by Western allies. European and US military chiefs last week reportedly presented ideas to their national security advisers on how to guarantee Ukraine's security if there is a peace deal with Russia. The discussions followed a summit of European leaders in Washington with US President Donald Trump on ending the conflict. "It's going to be a big challenge, but they will find ways of tackling that challenge without the US troops on the ground," said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "It will be a novelty because Europe has never carried out any peacekeeping or stabilization operation of this magnitude before." Turkey, with NATO's second-largest army, is seen as a possible option. "Turkey is an option, you know. And it seems that there is some talk of Turkish contribution," Guvenc added. Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal raises hopes of Turkish border reopening Ankara signals readiness On the same day, French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Ukraine's security. Ankara has already signalled it could take part in monitoring any peace deal, but Moscow's approval would be necessary. "If the parties agree, Turkey may send our troops to peacekeeping operations," said Mesut Casin, a former presidential adviser and professor at Istanbul's Yeditepe University. Casin pointed to Turkey's past record in UN operations. "Turkey joined many UN peacekeeping operations in the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and Korea, and in many other peacekeeping operations. The Turkish army is very powerful," he said. "Also, remember Putin is talking many times with Erdogan, and at the same time, Zelensky is visiting Ankara." Turkey and Italy boost cooperation in bid to shape Libya's political future Balancing Moscow and Kyiv Since the start of the war, Erdogan has kept good relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Ankara has refused to apply most international sanctions on Moscow, while at the same time selling vital military hardware to Kyiv. That balancing act has raised questions among European partners. "Turkey ought to have been at the Washington meeting," said Soli Ozel, an international relations scholar at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna. Even though Turkey borders both Ukraine and Russia, Erdogan was excluded from this month's summit between Trump and European leaders. "The fact that it wasn't backs the observation that the bigger players or the major partners are not bringing Turkey center stage, they're sidelining it," Ozel added. Despite this, Ankara remains strategically important. "They keep it in the play, it's important because if you're going to need troops, you're going to need Turkey. If you're going to talk about the Black Sea security, you need Turkey. And so you cannot really dismiss Turkey," Ozel said. But he warned that mistrust is limiting Ankara's role. "You're not making it part of the process that will hopefully lead to a conclusion or a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. There is a lack of trust, and I think that has something to do with the way Turkey has conducted its diplomacy," Ozel said. Peace or politics? Turkey's fragile path to ending a decades-long conflict Doubts over influence Some analysts suggest Ankara hopes Europe's reliance on Turkish forces or its navy for Black Sea security could help restore influence. But others see limited gains. "There is no automatic increase in Turkey's influence and credibility as a result of taking part in such operations," said Guvenc. "It does have a certain impact, but on the other hand, such contributions do not change other Western partners' views of Turkey." Rather than a reset with Europe, Guvenc sees a continuation of the current dynamic. "What might happen is yet another manifestation of transactionalism on both sides. And if Turkey contributes to peacekeeping in Ukraine, probably President Erdogan expects concrete benefits that will help him manage the deteriorating economic situation in Turkey. "Therefore, you cannot build a comprehensive and sustainable relationship built on that transactionalism on both sides."

The signing of a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington has raised hopes of ending decades of conflict and reopening Turkey's border with Armenia. The deal, brokered by US President Donald Trump, commits both countries to respect each other's territorial integrity – the issue at the centre of bloody wars. The agreement is seen as paving the way for Turkey to restore diplomatic ties with Armenia. "Ankara has been promising that once there is a peace agreement, it will open the border," says Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "There was a brief period in the post-Soviet era when it [the border] was opened, but that was quickly shut again due to the Armenian-Azeri tensions." Aydintasbas says reopening the border could have wide-reaching consequences. "Armenia and Turkey opening their border and starting trade would be a historical moment in terms of reconciliation between these two nations, which have very bitter historic memories," she adds. "But beyond that, it would help Armenia economically because it's a landlocked country entirely dependent on Russia for its protection and its economy." Turning point In June, Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. The meeting was seen as a turning point in relations long overshadowed by the memory of the 1915 Armenian Genocide, which Ankara still officially denies. "There's now a degree of personal chemistry between the Armenian prime minister and Erdogan. This was seen in a June historic meeting, the first ever bilateral contact, a face-to-face meeting," says Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre, a think tank in Yerevan. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 after ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan seized the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. The enclave was retaken by Azerbaijani forces in 2022. Giragosian says the peace deal, along with warmer ties between Pashinyan and Erdogan, could now help Yerevan reach a long-sought goal. "In the longer perspective for Turkey and Armenia, this is about going beyond the South Caucasus. It's about Central Asia. It's about European markets, potentially a new Iran in the future," he says. Erdogan congratulated Pashinyan on Monday over the deal, but made no official pledge on reopening the border. That decision may lie with Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev. "They [Ankara] will be looking to Baku. Baku is basically able to tell Turkey not to move on normalisation with Armenia, not to open the border," says Aydintasbas. "Part of the reason is that Turkey has developed an economic dependency on Azerbaijan, which is the top investor in Turkey. In other words, little brother is calling the shots, and I think that Ankara, to an extent, does not like it, but has come to appreciate the economic benefits of its relationship with Azerbaijan." Azerbaijani demands on Armenia Azerbaijan is also pushing for changes to Armenia's constitution, which it claims makes territorial claims on Nagorno-Karabakh. "The Armenian constitution refers to the Declaration of Independence of Armenia, which has a clear clause on the unification with Armenia, with Nagorno-Karabakh," says Farid Shafiyev of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations, a Baku-based think tank. Shafiyev warned that without reform, the peace deal could unravel. "Let's say, imagine Pashinyan losing elections, a new person says: 'You know, everything which was signed was against the Armenian constitution.' For us, it is important that the Armenian people vote for the change of the constitution," Shafiyev says. Analysts note that changing the constitution would require a referendum with more than 50 percent turnout – a difficult and time-consuming process. Time, however, may be running short. Russia is seen as the biggest loser from lasting peace in the Caucasus. For decades Moscow exploited the conflict to play Armenia and Azerbaijan against each other. Pashinyan is now seeking to move away from Russian dominance and closer to Europe. Giragosian warned that Armenia's window of opportunity is limited. "There is a closing window of opportunity – that is Russia's distraction with everything in Ukraine. We do expect a storm on the horizon, with an angry, vengeful Putin reasserting or attempting to regain Russia's lost power and influence in the region." Weakening Russia's grip remains key, he adds. "Armenia, after all, is still a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, the Russian-dominated trade bloc. "But it's also a country that has a Russian military base. Russia still manages the Armenian railway network, for example. This is why, for Armenia, the real key here is going to be Turkey and normalising relations with Turkey." At present, Armenia's only open land borders are with Georgia and Iran – both close to Russia. Opening the Turkish border would give Armenia a vital new route, while also benefiting Turkey's economically depressed border region. But for now, Azerbaijan may seek further concessions before allowing any breakthrough.

Turkey and Italy are working more closely on migration, energy and regional influence as they seek to shape Libya's political future. Both see the North African country as a key shared interest and are moving to consolidate their positions in the conflict-torn but energy-rich eastern Mediterranean. Earlier this month, the leaders of Italy, Turkey and Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA) met in a tripartite summit – the latest sign of growing cooperation between the three Mediterranean nations. “Turkey and Italy have both differing interests, but interests in Libya,” explains international relations professor Huseyin Bagcı of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. “Particularly, the migration issue and illegal human trafficking are big problems for Italy, and most of the people are coming from there [Libya], so they try to prevent the flow of migrants. "But for Turkey, it's more economic. And Libya is very much interested in keeping the relations with both countries.” Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in Africa Migration, legitimacy concerns Turkey is the main backer of Libya's GNA and still provides military assistance, which was decisive in defeating the rival eastern-based forces led by strongman Khalifa Haftar. An uneasy ceasefire holds between the two sides. Libya security analyst Aya Burweilla said Turkey is seeking Italy's support to legitimise the Tripoli government, as questions grow over its democratic record. “What it means for the Tripoli regime is very positive. This is a regime that has dodged elections for years," she says. "Their job was to have democratic elections, and one of their ways to make sure they stay in power was to get foreign sponsors, like Turkey... Now, with this rubber stamp from Meloni in Italy, they can keep the status quo going at the expense of Libyans.” Years of civil war and political chaos have turned Libya into a major hub for people smugglers. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, elected on a pledge to curb irregular migration, sees stability in Libya as key to that goal. “The migration issue has become very, very urgent in general for Europe, but of course for Italy too,” says Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, a think tank in Rome. Trump and Erdogan grow closer as cooperation on Syria deepens Mediterranean ambitions Chiriatti said Meloni's partnership with Turkey in Libya also reflects broader foreign policy goals. “There is another dimension – I think it's directly related to the fact that Italy and Meloni's government want to play a different role in foreign policy in the Mediterranean space," she says. "Italy is starting to see Africa as a possible partner to invest in … But what is important is that Italy is starting to see itself as a new player, both in the Mediterranean space and in Africa, so in this sense, it could have important cooperation with Turkey.” She points out that both Italy and Turkey share a colonial past in Libya. That legacy, combined with the lure of Libya's vast energy reserves, continues to shape their diplomacy. Ending the split between Libya's rival governments is seen as vital for stability. Moscow's reduced military support for Haftar, as it focuses on its war in Ukraine, is viewed in Ankara as an opening. “Russia is nearly out, and what remains are Turkey and Italy,” says Bagcı. He added that Ankara is making overtures to the eastern authorities through Haftar's son Saddam, a senior figure in the Libyan military. “The son of Haftar is coming very often to Ankara, making talks. It's an indication of potential changes... But how the deal will look like I don't know, we will see later. But it's an indication of potential cooperation, definitely.” Turkey steps into EU defence plans as bloc eyes independence from US Shifting alliances Libya was discussed when Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo on Saturday. Sisi backs Haftar's eastern government. Libya had been a source of tension between Turkey and Egypt, but with relations thawing, both say they will work together on the country's future. Turkey's position in Libya is strengthening, says Burweilla. “Saddam is pro-Turkey – there is a huge difference between son and father – and the younger generation is pro-Turkey,” she says. Such support, Burweilla said, stems from Ankara allowing Libyans to seek sanctuary in Turkey from fighting in 2011, when NATO forces led by France and the United Kingdom militarily intervened against Muammar Gaddafi's regime. “I think the Europeans underestimated the political capital that gave Turkey. Turkey is winning the game in Libya,” Burweilla says. She adds that Ankara's rising influence is also due to a shift in tactics towards the east. “What they [Ankara] realised was that you can't conquer the east of Libya by force; they tried and they failed. And the Turkish regime is very much motivated by business... They don't care about anything else, and they've realised they want to make a business," Burweilla says. They've reached out more to the east, and the east, in turn, has realised that if they don't want to be attacked by Turkey and its mercenaries, they need to make peace with Turkey as well.”

Ankara is aiming to dodge President Donald Trump's threat of sanctions against countries that trade with Russia. While Turkey is the third largest importer of Russian goods, it has largely escaped international sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, with Trump vowing to get tough with Moscow if it fails to make peace with Kyiv, that could change. “I am going to make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days from today," Trump declared at a press conference on 28 July during his visit to Scotland. "There is no reason to wait 50 days. I wanted to be generous, but we don't see any progress being made.”  The American president admitted his efforts to end the Ukraine war had failed and that his patience with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, was at an end. Turkish President Erdogan ready to rekindle friendship with Trump   Trump later confirmed 8 August as the date for the new measures. With US-Russian trade down 90 percent since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Trump warned that other countries importing Russian goods would also be hit by secondary sanctions. “If you take his [Trump] promises at face value, then he should look at all countries that import any Russian commodities that is of primary importance to the Russian budget - this includes, of course, crude oil, and here you have China and India mostly,” explained George Voloshin of Acams, a global organisation dedicated to anti-financial crime, training and education. Voloshin also claims that Turkey could be a target as well. “In terms of petroleum products, Turkey is one of the big importers. It also refines Russian petroleum in its own refineries," Voloshin added. "Turkey imports lots of Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline. Turkey is very much dependent on Russian gas and Russian petroleum products." Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common ground   Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ankara insists it is only bound by United Nations sanctions. Last year, Turkey was Russia's third-largest export market, with Russian natural gas accounting for more than  40 percent of its energy needs. Putin has used Turkey's lack of meaningful domestic energy reserves and dependence on Russian gas to develop a close relationship with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. “Putin knows that no matter what Trump wants, Turkey is not going to act in any military or sanctions capacity against Russia and Iran. You know, these are Turkey's red lines. We can't do it,” said analyst Atilla Yeşilada of Global Source Partners. “Trump is 10,000 miles away. These people are our neighbours,” added Yeşilada. “So Putin doesn't think of Turkey as a threat, but as an economic opportunity, and perhaps as a way to do things with the West that he doesn't want to do directly.” Ankara is performing a delicate balancing act. While maintaining trading ties with Russia, Erdoğan remains a strong supporter of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Turkey is a major arms seller to Ukraine, while at the same time, Erdoğan continues to try and broker peace between the warring parties. Last month, Istanbul was the venue for Russian–Ukrainian talks for the second time in as many months. Such efforts drew the praise of Trump. Trump and Erdogan grow closer as cooperation on Syria deepens Trump's pressure mounts on energy and trade The American president has made no secret of his liking for Erdoğan, even calling him a friend. Such close ties, along with Turkey's regional importance to Washington, analysts say, is a factor in Ankara's Western allies turning a blind eye to its ongoing trade with Russia. “I think Turkey has got a pass on several levels from Russian sanctions,” observed regional expert Sinan Ciddi of the Washington-based think tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. However, Ciddi cautions that Trump remains unpredictable and that previous actions are no guarantee for the future. “Past experience is not an indicator of future happenings. We just don't know what Trump will demand. This is not a fully predictive administration in Washington,” Ciddi said. “We do know right now that he [Trump] is very unhappy with Putin. He blames Putin for prolonging the Ukraine war,” added Ciddi. Change of stance "And if he feels sufficiently upset, there is a possibility that no waivers will be granted to any country. Turkey will be up against a very, very unappetising and unenviable set of choices to make.” Trump has successfully lobbied the European Union to increase its purchases of American liquefied natural gas (LNG), replacing Russian imports. Similar demands could put Ankara in a difficult position. “If Trump pressures Turkey not to buy Russian natural gas, that would definitely be a huge shock,” warned Yeşilada. “Trump might say, for instance: 'Buy energy from me or whatever.' But I don't think we're there yet. There is no way Turkey can replace Russian gas.” However, Trump could point to Turkey's recent expansion of its LNG facilities, which now include five terminals and have excess capacity to cover Russian imports, although storage facilities remain a challenge. Turkey's energy infrastructure is also built around receiving Russian energy, and any shift to American energy would likely be hugely disruptive and expensive, at a time when the Turkish economy is in crisis. Putin retains another energy card over Erdoğan. A Russian company is building a huge nuclear power plant in Turkey, which could account for 20 percent of the country's energy needs. Ciddi argues Erdoğan is now paying the price of over-relying on Russia. Turkey's Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunity “There is no need to have resorted to making Ankara this dependent on natural gas, nuclear energy, or for that matter bilateral trade. This was a choice by Erdoğan,” said Ciddi. “The fact it is so dependent on so many levels in an almost unique way is something that Turkey will have to rethink.” But for now, Erdoğan will likely be relying on his expertise in diplomatic balancing acts, along with his close ties to Trump and Turkey's importance to Washington's regional goals, to once again escape the worst of any sanctions over Russian trade – although Trump may yet extract a price for such a concession.

Azerbaijan is increasingly engaging in tit-for-tat actions towards powerful neighbour Russia amid escalating tensions in the South Caucasus region. This comes as Baku deepens its military cooperation with long-standing ally Turkey. In a highly publicised move, Azerbaijani security forces in Baku recently paraded seven arrested Russian journalists – working for the Russian state-funded Sputnik news agency – in front of the media. Their detentions followed the deaths last month of two Azerbaijani nationals in Russian custody, which sparked public outrage in Baku. "That was quite shocking for Baku, for Azerbaijani society – the cruelty of the behaviour and the large-scale violence," Zaur Gasimov of the German Academic Exchange Service, a professor and expert on Azerbaijani-Russian relations told RFI. "And the Russian-wide persecution of the leaders of Azerbaijani diasporic organisations took place (this month)," he added. Tit-for-tat tactics Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have been simmering since December, when Russian air defences accidentally downed an Azerbaijani passenger aircraft. Baku strongly condemned Moscow's lack of an official apology. The deaths in custody, which Moscow insisted were from natural causes, and the broader crackdown on Azerbaijan's diaspora are being interpreted in Baku as deliberate signals. "This kind of news had to frighten Azerbaijani society, which is aware of the fact that around two million ethnic Azeris with Azerbaijani and Russian passports are living in the Russian Federation," explained Gasimov. "So the signal is that we can oust them, and they would come to Azerbaijan. That should be an economic threat." Gasimov noted that while Baku may have previously backed down in the face of Russian pressure, this time appears different. "The reaction of Azerbaijan was just to react, with tit-for-tat tactics," he said. Shifting power in Caucasus Baku's self-confidence is partly attributed to its military success in 2020, when it regained control over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region and adjacent territories from Armenian forces after a six-week war. "The South Caucasus is changing," noted Farid Shafiyev, Chairman of the Baku-based Centre for Analysis of International Relations. Shafiyev argues that the era of Moscow treating the region as its backyard is over. "Russia cannot just grasp and accept this change because of its imperial arrogance; it demands subordination, and that has changed for a number of reasons. First of all, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and second, due to the trajectory of events following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The third very important factor is Turkey," added Shafiyev. Turkey, a long-standing ally of Azerbaijan, has significantly increased military cooperation and arms sales in recent years. Turkish-made drones played a key role in Azerbaijan's 2020 military campaign. In 2021, the Shusha Declaration was signed, committing both nations to mutual military support in the event of aggression. Turkey also plans to establish one of its largest overseas military bases in Azerbaijan. "A very strong relationship with Ankara, marked by strong cooperation in the economic and military fields for decades, as also outlined in the Shusha Declaration several years ago, is an asset and one of the elements of Azerbaijan's growing self-confidence," said Gasimov. Azerbaijan and Turkey build bridges amid declining influence of Iran Strategic rivalries  Turkey's expanding influence in the South Caucasus – at Russia's expense – is the latest in a series of regional rivalries between the two powers. Turkish-backed forces countered a Russian-aligned warlord in Libya, and Turkey-supported factions have contested Russian influence in Syria. These confrontations have strained the once-close ties between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. "No doubt that the Putin-Erdogan relationship is not as good as it used to be because we've either instigated or become participants in events in the South Caucasus and Syria," said analyst Atilla Yeşilada of Global Source Partners. Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Nevertheless, Yesilada believes pragmatism will prevail – for now – given Turkey's dependence on Russian energy and trade. "The economic interests are so huge, there is a huge chasm between not being too friendly and being antagonistic. I don't think we've got to that point. If we did, there would be serious provocations in Turkey," he warned. Until now, Turkish and Russian leaders have largely managed to compartmentalise their differences. However, that approach may soon face its toughest test yet, as Azerbaijan remains a strategic priority for Turkey, while Russia has long considered the Caucasus to be within its traditional sphere of influence. "We don't know what will be Russia's next target. We cannot exclude that Russia might be quite assertive in the South Caucasus in the future," warned Shafiyev. "I think the easiest way is to build friendly relationships and economic partnerships with the countries of the South Caucasus. Unfortunately, Moscow looks like it's not ready for a partnership. But if it's ready, we would welcome it," he added.

With political landscapes across Europe shifting, in this edition of International Report we explore the growing influence of Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement on the continent's politics.  Conservative think tanks, whose influence was once limited to Washington's corridors of power, are now establishing connections with political actors and organisations in countries such as Poland and Hungary, working to shape Europe's future. This report delves into the activities of the Heritage Foundation and its burgeoning alliances with groups including Ordo Iuris in Poland and the Mathias Corvinus Collegium in Hungary. These organisations advocate for conservative cultural and economic reforms, sparking heated debate over national identity, the structure of the European Union and the future of liberal democracy across the region. Can Europe withstand the ripple effect of the MAGA political wave? As alliances form and agendas clash, a crucial question looms: are these movements charting a course toward genuine European reform, or steering the continent toward greater division?  Voices from both sides share their perspectives, revealing the complexity behind this transatlantic ideological exchange. Our guests:  Chris Murphy, Senator (D, Connecticut) Kenneth Haar, researcher at Corporate Europe Observatory  Zbigniew Przybylowski, development director at Ordo Iuris Rodrigo Ballester, head of the Centre for European Studies at Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC)

One of the world's most protracted armed conflicts could finally be drawing to a close in Turkey. This month, a small group of fighters from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been waging an armed struggle against the Turkish state for greater minority rights, voluntarily disarmed. At a ceremony in northern Iraq, PKK commander Bese Hozart announced that the disarmament by 30 fighters - 15 men and 15 women - was undertaken freely and in line with the group's commitment to pursue a democratic socialist society through peaceful means. The fighters' weapons were burned as part of the symbolic event. The move came just days after the release of a video message from imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, who reiterated his call for an end to the armed struggle and the formal dissolution of the group. It was the first time the Turkish public had heard Öcalan's voice since his incarceration in 1999. PKK ends 40-year fight but doubts remain about the next steps Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan responded by telling supporters that the country had reached a historic moment. Ankara now expects a complete disarmament of the remaining PKK fighters by autumn. Since the beginning of the peace process last year, Erdoğan has ruled out making concessions, insisting the rebels are unilaterally surrendering. However, the high-profile nature of the disarmament ceremony is increasing pressure on the government to respond in kind. “This is a historic moment; this is a conflict that has been going on for nearly half a century. Now it's the government's turn to actually open up the political space,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Brookings Institution in Washington. “Both the Kurdish side and the Turkish side are telling their own constituencies that they're not giving up much—trying to convince their bases, which, in both cases, seem unprepared for such a radical shift,” she added. Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace Opaque negotiations, rising distrust As a gesture of goodwill, the government has reportedly improved Öcalan's prison conditions and allowed communication through a so-called “secretariat.” However, the PKK continues to press for broader concessions, including an amnesty for its members and the right for ex-fighters to return to Turkey. There have also been calls for Öcalan's release, alongside the release of tens of thousands of individuals jailed under Turkey's broad anti-terror laws. Yet concerns are mounting over the transparency of the peace negotiations. “It's really difficult even to assess it because we don't really know what's going on,” said Zeynep Ardıç, an expert on conflict resolution at Istanbul's Medeniyet University. “Some negotiations don't need to be public, but the public should still be informed,” she said. Ardıç warned that the current polarization in Turkish politics and a legacy of mistrust built over decades of conflict make transparency essential. “There should be a bit of transparency, because people don't trust state institutions, people don't trust each other, people don't trust the government or the judiciary. So, it's not easy to succeed under these circumstances. The government needs to reinstall trust - not just among Kurdish people, but among Turkish people as well.” Politics could undermine fragile progress Following the disarmament ceremony, Erdoğan announced the formation of a parliamentary commission to oversee the process, including members from his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), his coalition partner the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and the pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). Notably absent was the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), whose exclusion is fueling fears that Erdoğan is politicizing the peace process. Erdoğan requires the support of Kurdish parliamentarians to amend the constitution and potentially remove presidential term limits—allowing him to remain in power indefinitely. Turkey's Saturday Mothers keep up vigil for lost relatives “Erdoğan is trying to juggle two conflicting priorities,” noted analyst Atilla Yeşilada of U.S.-based consultancy Global Source Partners. “A: give the Kurds the least of what they want in return for a constitution that allows him to run again, and B: broaden his war against the CHP. I don't know how he can finesse that.” While Erdoğan speaks of a new era of unity between Turks, Arabs, and Kurds, he is simultaneously escalating a legal crackdown on the CHP, even going so far as to label the party a terror threat. This is a risky move, given that the pro-Kurdish DEM party has previously supported CHP candidates in both presidential and mayoral elections. Kurdish analyst Mesut Yeğen, of the Center for Social Impact Research in Istanbul, warned that Erdoğan may be overplaying his hand. “If Erdoğan's pressure on the CHP continues, then it's likely that DEM's electorate, members, and cadres could grow discontent,” Yeğen predicted. “They'll think that if Erdoğan succeeds against CHP, he'll start a similar campaign against the DEM. So I think they will strike a kind of balance.” Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common ground Despite the uncertainty, powerful incentives remain on both sides to pursue peace. With the PKK largely pushed out of Turkish territory and facing military defeat, and Erdoğan in dire need of parliamentary support, momentum for a resolution is strong. But with negotiations shrouded in secrecy, many remain skeptical about what kind of peace this process will ultimately deliver.

Forty years after the bombing of its Rainbow Warrior vessel, Greenpeace International's executive director Mads Christensen tells RFI that the attack not only failed to silence the movement, but made it stronger than ever. In an exclusive interview, he reflects on how an act of violence became a rallying cry. Christensen, who was 13 years old at the time of the sinking, remembers being inspired by the courage of the crew, who sailed into danger to protest French nuclear testing in the Pacific. The bombing, which killed photographer Fernando Pereira, revealed the extreme lengths to which governments were willing to go to protect their interests – and the power of peaceful resistance in the face of aggression. You still can't sink a rainbow, Greenpeace boss says 40 years after bombing The slogan “you can't sink a rainbow” became a symbol of defiance and resilience for Greenpeace. Christensen argues that the bombing ultimately gave the movement greater momentum and visibility, proving that when governments attempt to crush protest they often strengthen it instead. Today, Greenpeace faces new threats – from SLAPP suits to fossil fuel giants using legal action to intimidate activists. But just as in 1985, Christensen says Greenpeace will not be silenced. The Rainbow Warrior's legacy lives on in every campaign, every act of mobilisation and every young activist who refuses to look the other way. Forty years after the Rainbow Warrior bombing, activists still under attack

Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is warning that the future of democracy in the country is at stake, as a legal crackdown against it intensifies. This month has seen three more city mayors arrested in anti-corruption probes, while half of CHP parliamentary deputies are facing having their legal immunity lifted. Thousands marched through the streets of the Mediterranean city of Adana in protest at the arrest of its mayor on alleged corruption charges. The mayors of Antalya and Adiyaman have also been detained on similar charges. More than a dozen mayors of Turkey's main opposition CHP have now been jailed. The legal crackdown began in March with the jailing of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, and on Wednesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed there would be no letting up. "We launched an investigation into the largest theft ring in the history of the Republic, the most reckless organised crime organisation ever," Erdogan told his parliamentary deputies. "Those who took bribes, those who practically held cities under extortion, those who put people in a difficult situation and then robbed them were all CHP people," he continued. A battle for survival  Erdogan further ratcheted up the pressure on the CHP with a presidential motion calling for the lifting of parliamentary immunity from 61 out of CHP's 121 deputies. CHP leader Ozgur Ozel is also under investigation for allegedly inciting public hatred and insulting the president. Ozel is at the forefront of leading anti-government protests across the country, which continue to attract large crowds as the party builds a significant lead in opinion polls over Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). The CHP claims their growing success is what is motivating the recent prosecutions, rather than corruption. "These are politically driven arrests and investigations," declared party spokesman Ilhan Uzgel. "Not a single government party mayor is even investigated." Uzgel admits that with more than 500 of its officials having been arrested, the party is facing a battle for survival. "The government has all the instruments of the state. They control the judiciary, they control the police force etc etc. So it's very difficult to stop it." Despite mounting pressure, however, Uzgel insists they will not back down. "We are organising rallies twice a week, our leader is very energetic. He [Ozel]... said we are not going to back down. The government, they don't want the opposition party to challenge Erdogan's authority. This is the core of the issue right now." Turkey walks a fine line as conflict between Israel and Iran cools Broadcasting bans However, the political noose around the neck of the CHP continues to tighten. This week, the opposition Sozcu TV station was banned for 10 days by regulatory authorities for "inciting public hatred" after broadcasting protests against the jailing of the Istanbul mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu. Another opposition TV station, Halk, is facing a similar ban. The two are among the few media outlets that continue to report on the ongoing CHP protests against the waves of arrests. The broadcast bans are being seen as a sign that the days of critical media could be numbered. "I believe by the end of this year we might be hearing of the start of the liquidation of critical TV channels," claims Erol Onderoglu, Istanbul representative of the Paris-based NGO Reporters Without Borders. Fears are growing too that the threat against independent media is part of a much more worrying process of the dismantling of the pillars of democracy. Turkey steps into EU defence plans as bloc eyes independence from US Opinion polls However, the government appears to be losing the battle for people's minds, with several opinion polls reporting that more than 60 percent of people polled believe the legal crackdown on CHP is politically motivated. Anger against the government also continues to grow over 40 percent inflation. Sezin Oney, an analyst for the independent Poltiyol news outlet, fears a political showdown is looming. "Turkish democracy is on its deathbed, actually. Erdogan envisions a political stage where we don't have a really challenging opposition. [Arrests] will escalate and escalate. They will go as far as they can until they reach their target." While Erdogan remains in a strong position, the opposition is still a threat to the president. "He does have most of the cards," said Oney, "but he doesn't have the support of the public in general. So, at the end of the day, at one point it will be the people versus Erdogan." "What matters is where the security forces stand," he added, "When it comes to a point when the people take to the streets en masse, will the security bureaucracy go against their own people?" Neither the CHP nor Erdogan are showing any signs of capitulating, with protests expected to continue and likely to intensify in September, coinciding with the reopening of universities and the return of people from summer holidays. Court cases against the CHP are also scheduled to resume then. With both sides insisting they are fighting for the future of their country, it could well be a fight that leaves only one side standing.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's June visit to Turkey marks the latest step in the ongoing rapprochement between the two countries. The move comes as Ankara seeks to expand its influence in the Caucasus, amid the waning power of regional rivals Iran and Russia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's hosting of Pashinyan in Istanbul last month represents a notable diplomatic effort to normalise relations. Ankara had severed diplomatic ties and closed its border with Armenia in 1993 following the war between Armenia and Turkey's close ally, Azerbaijan, over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. However, Pashinyan's Istanbul visit is being hailed as groundbreaking. “I believe it was very significant for several reasons. It was the first bilateral diplomatic summit between the Turkish and Armenian leaders,” explains Richard Giragosian, Director of the Regional Studies Centre, a Yerevan-based think tank. Until now, interactions between the two leaders had been limited to multilateral engagements—such as Erdoğan's inauguration and meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Giragosian argues that the Istanbul meeting carries deeper significance. “This is the first bilateral invitation from Turkey to the Armenian leader. That reflects a second important development: Turkey is seeking to regain its options with Armenia,” observes Giragosian. Armenia looks to reopen border with Turkey as potential gateway to the West Zangezur corridor at centre One of the key issues discussed was the creation of a land bridge through Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Turkey. Known as the Zangezur Corridor, this project is a strategic priority for Ankara. It would not only link Turkey directly to its key ally and vital trade partner Azerbaijan, but also open a new route for Turkish goods to Central Asia. “It is especially important now from an economic standpoint,” notes international relations professor Hüseyin Bağcı of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. Pashinyan's visit is seen as part of a broader Turkish diplomatic push to secure regional support for the Zangezur Corridor. “This is why Prime Minister Pashinyan came to Turkey,” says Bağcı, who suggests Erdoğan is attempting to counter Iranian resistance. “The Zangezur Corridor should not be held hostage by Iranian opposition. It shouldn't be conditional on Iran's stance,” he adds. Iran, Armenia's powerful neighbour, strongly opposes the corridor. Currently, Turkish goods must transit through Iran to reach Central Asia—giving Tehran significant leverage. Iran has often restricted this trade during periods of diplomatic tension with Ankara. More critically, Tehran fears the proposed 40-kilometre corridor would cut off a vital route it uses to bypass international sanctions. Despite Turkish diplomatic efforts, Iran remains firmly opposed. “Nothing has changed in Tehran's position regarding the Zangezur Corridor. Iran is still against the project,” warns Prof Dr Zaur Gasimov of the German Academic Exchange Service. Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Gasimov notes, however, that recent geopolitical developments—particularly Israel's ongoing conflict with Iran—have shifted the regional balance in Ankara's favour. “As of July 2025, Iran's diplomatic, political, and military capabilities are far more constrained than they were just a few years ago, due to Israel-led and US-led operations,” says Gasimov. “In both military and political terms, Iran is now significantly limited.” Yet Azerbaijan's insistence that the Zangezur Corridor operate independently of Armenian control remains a major sticking point for Yerevan, says Giragosian. Still, he believes the broader aim of establishing a new trade route—combined with Turkey's willingness to reopen its border—offers the region both economic incentives and a path towards stability through mutual dependence. “The reopening of closed borders, and the creation of trade and transport links, reshapes strategic thinking. It makes any renewal of hostilities far more costly,” says Giragosian. “In this context, it lifts all boats. It's a win-win for everyone,” he continues. “And I do think the real sticking point now will be Russia's reaction, more than any resistance from Turkey, Armenia, or Azerbaijan.” Russia and Iran push back Initially, Moscow supported the Zangezur Corridor, particularly since Russian personnel were envisioned to administer it under the original proposals. But Gasimov notes that Russia's enthusiasm has cooled as it grows increasingly wary of Turkey's expanding influence in a region it still considers part of its traditional sphere. “Moscow is very concerned about Ankara–Yerevan relations. Turkey, after all, is a NATO member—even if Russia cooperates with it in several areas,” says Gasimov. France pushes for peace in the Caucasus amid heat over Iran detainees   Despite being heavily engaged in its war in Ukraine, Gasimov suggests Russia still has leverage in the South Caucasus “After three years of war and sweeping sanctions, Russia's capabilities in the region are diminished. But it continues to try to assert itself—by intimidating vulnerable regional economies and exploiting internal political instability, as it did in Armenia just two weeks ago,” says Gasimov. Last month, Armenian security forces arrested several opposition figures, claiming to have foiled a coup attempt. As Moscow remains bogged down in Ukraine, Yerevan may have only a limited window of opportunity to capitalise on Russia's distraction and weakness. “We do see a storm on the horizon,” warns Giragosian. “With an angry and vengeful Putin lashing out at Russia's neighbours, he's seeking to reassert Russian power and influence across the near abroad—from Central Asia to the South Caucasus.” Armenia reconsiders alliances Giragosian argues that such threats could be the catalyst for historic diplomatic realignments. “From an Armenian perspective, it's deeply ironic. For decades, Armenia feared Turkey and turned to Russia for protection. Now, Armenia is looking to Turkey for a greater role—and seeking to distance itself from the Russian orbit.” Pashinyan has made no secret of his intent to pivot Armenia away from Russia and towards Europe. But with neighbouring Georgia increasingly under Moscow's sway, and with Iran and Azerbaijan offering few viable alternatives, Turkey may now represent Armenia's best chance to achieve that strategic realignment.

Turkey has spent weeks walking a diplomatic tightrope, caught between its outrage over Israel's actions and its reluctance to cross the United States. A ceasefire deal brokered by President Donald Trump has given Ankara some breathing room – at least for now. “We welcome the news that an agreement has been reached on the establishment of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which came late last night,” Erdogan said before departing for the NATO summit in The Hague. Israel's war on Iran had put Erdogan in a tricky spot – maintaining his hostility towards Israel without damaging his ties with Trump. On Saturday, Erdogan slammed Israel, calling it a “terrorist state”, while warning that the war on Iran threatened to plunge the region into chaos. The speech, delivered in Istanbul at a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, was just the latest in what has become an almost daily verbal assault on Israel. But the United States bombing of Iran just a few hours after Erdogan spoke drew little reaction from Ankara beyond a short statement expressing its “concern” over the attack. Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common ground Words versus actions Erdogan's actions have also not always matched his rhetoric.The Turkish leader resisted opposition calls to close the US-operated NATO Kurecik radar base near the Iranian border. “Turkey is not interested once again in going into conflict with America because, if you close Kurecik, then it is a NATO issue, and Israel has close relations also with NATO,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. The Kurecik radar station, Bagci said, is important to Israeli security. “Turkey signed the acceptance (agreement) that Israel should take information from Kurecik,” Bagci added. “There is no in an article in the case of war that Turkey would not provide the information. So, this is why Erdogan, based on this fact, is not undertaking any steps against Israel.” Earlier this month, Erdogan lobbied Baghdad not to follow Tehran's calls to intercept Israeli warplanes using Iraqi airspace to strike Iran. All moves that are likely to play well with Trump. Erdogan values what Trump has called a “great friendship”. The two leaders are expected to meet for the first time since Trump's re-election on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, where Erdogan will likely be seeking an invitation to Washington. With Turkey and Iran long-time regional rivals, competing for influence from the Caucasus to Central Asia and the Middle East, Ankara also shares the West's concerns over Tehran's nuclear programme. “Turkey definitely doesn't want a nuclear-armed Iran, because that is going to trigger a proliferation process in the Middle East,” said Serhan Afacan, head of the Center for Iranian Studies, a research organisation in Ankara. Interim president Sharaa weighs up Ankara and Riyadh in power struggle for Syria Refugee fears and regional risks The United States bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities – which Washington claims has ended Tehran's atomic programme – drew no condemnation from Ankara. But the risk of a wider conflict has raised fears of growing instability and the possibility of a refugee wave into Turkey from Iran. Trump's surprise move to broker a ceasefire between Iran and Israel will come as a relief to Ankara, said regional expert Professor Zaur Gasimov of the German Academic Exchange Service in Istanbul. He warned the ceasefire came just as signs were emerging of a refugee exodus. “What we see now is already now is the mobility of people within Iran, leaving Tehran and other bigger cities, going to different directions, that is a challenge for the entire region. And maybe Turkey is a country that is about to observe a refugee influx coming from Iran by the border,” said Gasimov. He warned Ankara is likely not prepared for such an exodus. “That is a challenge. So, Turkey is currently observing the situation with great attention, and certain answers to this challenge is not ready yet,” said Gasimov. Azerbaijan and Turkey build bridges amid declining influence of Iran Economic toll Turkey, which borders Iraq and Syria, has struggled for decades with chaos on its southern frontier. It currently hosts as many as five million refugees and has paid a heavy economic price through the loss of valuable regional markets. Ankara will likely be eyeing the potential rewards of a weakened Tehran in the long-running competition for regional influence. “A weak Iran is good for Turkey always, but not a dead Iran,” said Bagci. “Iran is important for connectivity. They [Iran] have many neighbours like Turkey. They are close to Russia, Central Asian republics, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, you name it. And the destabilisation of the region is in nobody's interest. "That is why China and Russia are very careful in their statements, and everybody is trying now for a diplomatic solution.” How long Trump's brokered ceasefire will last remains to be seen. But for Ankara, the hope is that wider regional chaos has been avoided – and that it has managed, at least for now, to balance its competing interests.

The European Union is working more closely with Turkey on defence, aiming to build military independence as fears grow over Russia and doubts linger about continued US support. Earlier this month, EU and Turkish officials met under the bloc's Common Security and Defence Policy for the first time in three years. The talks are part of a push to develop a more independent European defence system, amid concerns that a second Donald Trump presidency might weaken NATO's guarantee to protect Europe. Many see Turkey as well-placed to help meet the EU's defence goals. “We have huge potential for cooperation with Turkey,” said Federico Donelli, an international relations expert at Trieste University. He pointed out that Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO, and that “many European defence systems are in some way compatible with Turkish military hardware because the majority of EU members are NATO members”. Donelli said Turkey's fast-growing defence sector could help the EU's efforts to rearm. “Turkey is one of the emerging players in the security market. One of Turkey's key assets is producing efficiently at a lower cost compared with American or Israeli companies.” Ankara's expanding military Turkey was recently admitted to the EU's €150 billion Safety Assistance for Europe arms procurement programme. While Turkey is not yet one of the top 10 global weapons producers, it has made major advances in certain areas. It is one of the world's biggest producers of military drones and has developed a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet. Last year, Turkish company Repkon built a munitions factory in the United States using technology designed to speed up production. And this month, Turkey's drone maker Baykar signed a deal with Italy's Leonardo to develop drones together. The deal is expected to help Baykar meet EU rules that require 65 percent of the value of any arms contract to go to an EU firm. Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said Turkey brings valuable assets to the table. “Turkey has a vast ability not only to procure and manufacture but also to supply these, that's readily available. So, on the physical side, it's great,” said Ciddi. Concerns over Turkish politics But Turkey's position on the war in Ukraine has raised eyebrows. Ankara has kept ties with both Kyiv and Moscow, and Ciddi said this creates a dilemma for the EU. “On the political side, it puts the EU in a rather precarious position of having to rely on a country like Turkey simply because, you know, Turkey has been playing both sides of this conflict, so it's a double-edged sword,” he said. Greece and Cyprus are also worried about closer defence ties between the EU and Turkey. Both have territorial disputes with Ankara. While relations between Athens and Ankara have improved, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis insists that any defence deal with Turkey must include a clear promise to drop threats of war. Turkey has said for 30 years it might use force if Greece extends its territorial waters in the Aegean Sea. Athens says it has a legal right to do so under a UN maritime convention. Turkey has rejected the demand, saying the issue should be resolved through talks. Mitsotakis is due to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the sidelines of this month's NATO summit. Greek, Cypriot objections sidelined Greece and Cyprus still have veto powers in the EU and have used them against Turkey in the past. But Federico Donelli said Russia's actions have changed the mood in Europe. “Nowadays, I think the priority of European countries – and the European Union as a whole – is more important than any concerns from Cyprus and Greece,” said Donelli. “I don't think they will be able to halt this process,” he added. “Honestly, the priority for European countries is security: to increase production and to cooperate with all actors who can help in the defence sector.” In a move widely seen as a way to get around Greek and Cypriot opposition, the EU has now made decisions on arms procurement subject to majority voting. Even so, Greece and Cyprus could still slow things down diplomatically. But with France and Germany pushing hard to boost Europe's defences, deeper ties with Turkey are likely to move ahead.

Turkish authorities are intensifying their crackdown on Istanbul's imprisoned mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The move comes as İmamoğlu, despite his incarceration, remains President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's principal political rival, with protests continuing over his arrest. On Wednesday, a suburb of Istanbul witnessed the latest demonstration in support of the city's detained mayor. Despite the protest taking place in a traditional electoral stronghold of President Erdoğan, tens of thousands attended.İmamoğlu masksIn a recent attempt to quell the unrest, Istanbul's governor's office issued a decree ordering the removal of all images, videos, and audio recordings of İmamoğlu from state buildings and public transport across the city. Within hours, social media was flooded with footage of people wearing İmamoğlu masks while riding public transport.Turkey's youth rise up over mayor's jailing and worsening economy“Up to 75% are against İmamoğlu's arrest, as the aversion to Erdoğan's attempt to sideline his opponent with foul play was widely distributed by all parties,” claimed political analyst Atilla Yeşilada of Global Source Partners, citing recent opinion polls.Yeşilada argues that the poll's findings underscore the opposition's success in winning over public opinion.“There is a strong reaction. This is not a temporary thing. It's a grievance that will be held and may impact the next election whenever they are held,” he added.Recent opinion polls also show İmamoğlu enjoying a double-digit lead over Erdoğan in a prospective presidential race, with a majority of respondents believing the corruption charges against the mayor are politically motivated—a claim the government denies.Erdogan's jailed rivalsPolitical analyst Sezin Öney of the independent Turkish news portal Politikyol suggests Erdoğan may have expected İmamoğlu to follow the same fate as other jailed rivals, whose influence faded once imprisoned. “The government is counting on the possibility that İmamoğlu is jailed, is out of sight, out of mind, and the presidency will have his ways,” explained Öney.Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayorTurkish authorities have persistently sought to curtail İmamoğlu's presence on social media. His accounts on X (formerly Twitter) and Bluesky have been frozen following court rulings.The fate of opposition journalistsSimilar actions have been taken against opposition journalists and their supporters. “The operation goes deeper and deeper in recent months; it's just a very concerted policy to create a blackout in this vibrant society,” claimed Erol Önderoğlu, Istanbul representative of the Paris-based Reporters Without Borders.The legal crackdown on the Istanbul municipality continues, with further waves of arrests extending even to İmamoğlu's personal bodyguard. His party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), is also under investigation for alleged irregularities at its party congress.Analyst Öney predicts that further crackdowns are likely, given the potential implications for Erdoğan's political future. “I am sure this is being calculated and recalculated every day—whether it's beneficial to throw more cases at him (İmamoğlu), by weakening his party, the Republican People's Party, weakening him personally, or whatever is convenient. But the sky is the limit,” explained Öney.Nevertheless, each new crackdown appears only to fuel the momentum behind opposition protests, which continue to attract large crowds across the country—including in Erdoğan's own political bastions.Protest movementThe leader of the main opposition CHP, Özgür Özel, has earned praise for his energetic performances and has won over many former sceptics. However, analyst Yeşilada questions whether Özel can sustain the protest movement.“I feel in the summer months, it's very difficult to keep the momentum; the colleges are closed, and people are shuffling through the country, so if that (protests) is the only means of piling the pressure on Erdoğan, it's not going to work,” warned Yeşilada.Istanbul's mayorial elections mean more than just running the city Yeşilada believes the opposition leader must elevate his strategy. “Özel needs to find new tricks. It will take two things: A) hearing what the grassroots are saying, in particular the younger generation, and B) being able to reshuffle the party rank and file so true activists are promoted—so they can energise the base,” he added.In 2013, Erdoğan weathered a wave of mass protests which largely dissipated with the closing of universities and the arrival of the summer holidays. This year, he may again be relying on summer to quieten dissent. For the opposition, the challenge is to ensure that Erdoğan's summer is anything but peaceful.

In this week's International Report, RFI's Jan van der Made takes a closer look at the recent Romanian elections, in which centrist candidate Nicușor Dan secured a decisive victory over his far-right rival, George Simion.  On 26 May, pro-EU centrist Nicușor Dan was sworn in as President of Romania, having vowed to oppose “isolationism and Russian influence.”Earlier, Dan had emerged victorious in a closely contested election rerun, widely viewed as pivotal for the future direction of the NATO and EU member state of 19 million people, which shares a border with war-torn Ukraine.The vote followed a dramatic decision by Romania's Constitutional Court five months prior to annul a presidential election, citing allegations of Russian interference and the extensive social media promotion of the far-right frontrunner—who was subsequently barred from standing again.Although nationalist and EU-sceptic George Simion had secured a commanding lead in the first round, Dan ultimately prevailed in the second-round run-off.RFI speaks with Claudiu Năsui, former Minister of Economy and member of the Save Romania Union, about the pressing challenges facing the country—from economic reform and political polarisation to the broader implications of the election for Romania's future, including its critical role in supporting Ukraine amid ongoing regional tensions.

Some African leaders regard United States President Donald Trump's decision to halt aid to the continent as an opportunity to foster self-reliance. They have already initiated plans to mobilise the necessary resources to reshape Africa's aid landscape. “Trade, not aid, is now the pillar of our policy in Africa,” said United States ambassador Troy Fitrell, from the Bureau of African Affairs, in a speech on 14 May at business summit in Abidjan.The declaration settles any doubts over the Trump administration's position on aid towards Africa. The US – the world single largest aid donor in the world, according to the United Nations – no longer wants to disburse billions in foreign aid, despite the fact that it represents a small percentage of its entire budget.In 2023, the US spent $71.9 billion in foreign aid, which amounts to 1.2 percent of its entire budget for that fiscal year.President Donald Trump repeatedly stated that aid is a waste. For years, Africa has been the region receiving more funding from the United States than any other.Across the African continent, Trump's executive orders were initially met with shock, anger, and despair — but also with a renewed determination to change course and place African resources at the heart of African healthcare.In February, at an African Union summit, Rwandan President Paul Kagame announced that the AU's health institutions, including the Centres for Disease Control, would take the lead in seeking alternatives to US funding.“Africa now finds itself at a crossroads. The health financing landscape has shifted dramatically.“I propose that, over the next year, we work together to define new mechanisms for concrete collaboration on healthcare among governments, businesses, and philanthropies,” he told African leaders.“The work of building our continent, including our healthcare systems, cannot be outsourced to anyone else.” To untangle what is going on, for this edition of Interntional Report, RFI interviewed Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project; Chris Milligan, former foreign service officer at USAID, in Washington; Mark Heywood, human rights and social justice activist in South Africa, co-founder of the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC); Onikepe Owolabi, vice president of International research at the Guttmacher institute in New York; Monica Oguttu, founding executive director of KMET, Kisumu Medical and Education Trust, in Kenya.

Turkey and the United States are stepping up their cooperation in Syria, strengthening a partnership that has grown despite tensions with Israel. The two countries say they are working more closely on security and stability in the region, reflecting a broader reset in their relationship. The pledge was made during a meeting of the US-Turkey Working Group in Washington, where diplomats committed to “increasing cooperation and coordination on the security and stability of Syria”.Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara, said this signals progress.“I think it shows us that Turkey and the US can get on the same page when it comes to Syria,” he said. “Disagreements in Syria were part of the problem between Turkey and the United States. There are other issues, but this one was one of the core issues.”Unluhisarcikli believes the good chemistry between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump is playing a role.“I think it's significant President Erdogan is one of the leaders that President Trump likes working with and trusts. But of course, this is the case until it's not,” he said.Macron urges Syrian leader to protect minorities after deadly clashesIsraeli pushbackThe move comes despite a warning from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told Trump during his February visit to Washington that Turkey was a security threat in Syria.Both countries have troops in Syria and see each other as rivals.Trump appeared to dismiss Netanyahu's concerns, speaking to the international media from the Oval Office with the Israeli leader at his side.“I told the Prime Minister: Bibi, if you have a problem with Turkey, I really think I can be able to work it out,” Trump said. “I have a really great relationship with Turkey and its leader.”Erdogan, along with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is credited with helping persuade Trump to lift sanctions on Syria. Israeli foreign policy analyst Gallia Lindenstrauss said the decision went against Israel's position.She explained that Israel wanted any easing of sanctions to be linked to concessions by Damascus.“I think the fact the US ambassador to Turkey has been appointed as the envoy to Syria also means the Turkish position will get more attention from the US side,” Lindenstrauss said.“That in itself makes some concern in Israel. Because here Israel has its priorities with regards to Syria, it wants someone pushing Turkey to be more flexible and not, of course, to build bases throughout Syria. That would be a very threatening scenario regarding Israel.”Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common groundTurkish airbasesIsraeli warplanes recently destroyed a Syrian airbase that Turkish forces were preparing to take over. Turkey says its growing military presence, including control of airbases, is aimed at helping Syria's new rulers fight insurgent groups like the Islamic State.“For Turkey, Syria's security and stability are of the utmost importance, and Turkey is devoting resources to keep Syria stable because Syria's stability is so important for Turkey's security, and that's what Israel should understand,” Unluhisarcikli said.But Turkish airbases equipped with missile defences would restrict Israel's freedom to operate in Syrian airspace.“Israel has just found an opportunity, an air corridor towards Iran (via Syrian airspace), which it can use without asking for permission from any third party,” Unluhisarcikli said. “If Turkey takes over the bases, then Israel would need to get permission from Turkey, which it doesn't want to, and I think that's understandable.”Azerbaijan has been mediating talks between Israel and Turkey to reduce tensions. The two sides have reportedly set up deconfliction systems, including a hotline.“There has been progress between Israel and Turkey over Syria. There have been at least three announced talks in Azerbaijan which is positive,” Lindenstrauss said.PKK ends 40-year fight but doubts remain about the next stepsIran and the F-35sIran's nuclear programme is another source of friction between Israel and Turkey.Unluhisarcikli said Trump seems to be leaning more towards Erdogan's view than Netanyahu's.“For Turkey, military conflict with Iran is a very bad scenario. I am not entirely sure that's how Trump feels, but for him, any conflict should be just a second choice because conflict is not good for business," Unluhisarcikli said."It seems Israel has made the judgment that it is time for military action, the time for talking is over. There should be military action. Trump disagrees. He thinks he does have a chance of negotiating.”US and Iranian negotiators met in Rome on Friday for the fifth round of talks. Erdogan supports the talks and has also claimed that Trump is open to lifting the US embargo on selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. That would remove Israel's technical advantage in the air.Trump's increasingly close relationship with Erdogan comes amid reports that he is uneasy about Israel's war in Gaza. But Lindenstrauss warned that Israel is counting on Trump's unpredictability.“We know that Trump has a basic favourable view towards Erdogan. This was already in his first term, and it is continuing now. But we also know that Trump can be tough towards Turkey, and he did implement sanctions against Turkey in his first term," she said."So this good relationship depends on whether Turkey is in line with US interests. But of course, Israel is watching.”However, with Israel's war in Gaza showing little signs of ending, threatening further diplomatic isolation, Erdogan for now appears to have Trump's ear, with the two leaders sharing similar agendas.

The Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK, has announced the end to its more than forty-year fight against Turkey, a conflict that claimed more than 40,000 lives. But the declaration, called historic by Turkish officials, is being met by public skepticism with questions remaining over disarmament and its calls for democratic reforms. Upon hearing the news that the PKK was ending its war and disarming, Kurds danced in the streets of the predominantly Kurdish southeast of Turkey. The region bore the brunt of the brutal conflict, with the overwhelming majority of those killed being civilians, and millions more displaced.From armed struggle to political arena"It is a historic moment. This conflict has been going on for almost half a century," declared Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank."And for them [the PKK] to say that the period of armed struggle is over and that they are going to transition to a major political struggle is very important."The PKK, designated as a terrorist organisation by the European Union and most of Turkey's Western allies, launched its armed struggle in 1984 for Kurdish rights and independence. At the time, Turkey was ruled by the military, which did not even acknowledge the existence of Kurds, referring to them as “Mountain Turks.”Nearly fifty years later, however, Turkey is a different place. The third-largest parliamentary party is the pro-Kurdish Dem Party. In its declaration ending its armed struggle and announcing its dissolution, the PKK stated that there is now space in Turkey to pursue its goals through political means.However, military realities are thought to be behind the PKK's decision to end its campaign. “From a technical and military point of view, the PKK lost,” observed Aydın Selcan, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region.“For almost ten years, there have been no armed attacks by the PKK inside Turkey because they are no longer capable of doing so. And in the northern half of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, there is now almost no PKK presence,” added Selcan.Selcan also claims the PKK could be seeking to consolidate its military gains in Syria. “For the first time in history, the PKK's Syrian offshoot, the YPG, has begun administering a region. So it's important for the organisation to preserve that administration.“They've rebranded themselves as a political organisation.” Turkish forces have repeatedly launched military operations in Syria against the YPG. However, the Syrian Kurdish forces have reached a tentative agreement with Damascus's new rulers—whom Ankara supports.Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace Erdoğan's high-stakes gambleFor Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is trailing in opinion polls and facing growing protests over the arrest of his main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, on alleged corruption charges, this could be a golden opportunity. “This is a win for Erdoğan, no doubt,” claimed analyst Aydıntaşbaş.Along with favourable headlines, the PKK's peace announcement offers a solution to a major political headache for Erdoğan. The Turkish president wants to amend the constitution to remove term limits, allowing him to run again for the presidency.The pro-Kurdish Dem Party holds the parliamentary votes Erdoğan needs. “Yes, Erdoğan, of course, will be negotiating with Kurds for constitutional changes,” said Aydıntaşbaş.“Now we are entering a very transactional period in Turkish politics. Instead of repressing Kurds, it's going to be about negotiating with them. And it may persuade the pro-Kurdish faction—which forms the third-largest bloc in Turkish politics—to peel away from the opposition camp,” added Aydıntaşbaş.However, Aydıntaşbaş warns that Erdoğan will need to convince his voter base, which remains sceptical of any peace process with the PKK. According to a recent opinion poll, three out of four respondents opposed the peace process, with a majority of Erdoğan's AK Party supporters against it.For decades, the PKK has been portrayed in Turkey as a brutal terrorist organisation, and its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, is routinely referred to by politicians and much of the media as “the baby killer.” Critics argue the government has failed to adequately prepare the public for peace.“In peace processes around the world, we see a strong emphasis on convincing society,” observed Sezin Öney, a political commentator at Turkey's PolitikYol news portal. “There are reconciliation processes, truth commissions, etc., all designed to gain public support. But in our case, it's like surgery without anaesthesia—an operation begun without any sedatives,” added Öney.Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in IraqPolitical concessions?Public pressure on Erdoğan is expected to grow, as the PKK and Kurdish political leaders demand concessions to facilitate the peace and disarmament process.“In the next few months, the government is, first of all, expected to change the prison conditions of Öcalan,” explained Professor Mesut Yeğen of the Istanbul-based Reform Institute.“The second expectation is the release of those in poor health who are currently in jail. And for the disarmament process to proceed smoothly, there should be an amnesty or a reduction in sentences, allowing PKK convicts in Turkish prisons to be freed and ensuring that returning PKK militants are not imprisoned,” Yeğen added.Yeğen claimed that tens of thousands of political prisoners may need to be released, along with the reinstatement of Dem Party mayors who were removed from office under anti-terrorism legislation.Turkey's Saturday Mothers keep up vigil for lost relativesErdoğan has ruled out any concessions until the PKK disarms, but has said that “good things” will follow disarmament. Meanwhile, the main opposition CHP Party, while welcoming the peace initiative, insists that any democratic reforms directed at the Kurdish minority must be extended to wider society—starting with the release of İmamoğlu, Erdoğan's chief political rival.While the peace process is widely seen as a political victory for Erdoğan, it could yet become a liability for the president, who risks being caught between a sceptical voter base and an impatient Kurdish population demanding concessions.

Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations tells RFI that Donald Trump's administration is treating Europe less as a partner and more as a rival. In backing nationalist movements and undermining multilateral institutions, it is exporting a political mode of operation that risks fracturing European unity. The impact of Donald Trump's second term in the White House is being felt far beyond US borders. Observers say this ripple effect can be seen across Europe, not just in policy but in the continent's political culture itself.For Dr Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the stakes are nothing less than the future of European liberal democracy.In her latest ECFR report, MAGA Goes Global: Trump's Plan for Europe, Belin warns that what might appear to be chaotic decisions from the Oval Office are, in fact, part of an ideological project.“There's actually a strong direction, a clear destination,” Belin told RFI. “Trump, surrounded by loyalists and MAGA Republicans, is ready to implement his plan – to push back on liberal democracy, and to push back on Europe."According to her, he sees Europe as “an extension of his political enemies – liberals and progressives” and views its institutions as bureaucratic hurdles rather than allies in global leadership.Culture wars without bordersTrump's administration – bolstered by figures including Vice President JD Vance and media mogul Elon Musk – has also made overtures to Europe's far right.They have voiced support for Germany's far-right AfD party and France's Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, including on Musk's social media platform X (formerly Twitter) – helping to disseminate nationalist and populist rhetoric across the continent.“We're seeing a systematic attack on the liberal model that Europe represents,” said Belin. “This ‘Trumpian wave' has fired up nationalist opposition in Europe, even if it hasn't created a united front."‘Free Le Pen': US conservatives rally behind French far-right leaderNon merci to MAGAHowever, some of the European political parties that share Trump's scepticism of liberal institutions are treading carefully when it comes to embracing his brand of politics.While leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary openly welcome MAGA-style backing, others see it as a double-edged sword.Following her recent legal conviction, Le Pen received support from MAGA-aligned figures. But her party responded with conspicuous silence.“They don't want or need this Trumpian support,” Belin noted. “Their political strategy is not about aligning with MAGA America – it's more French, more sovereignist."Embracing Trump too openly could risk undermining years of effort to mainstream the National Rally's image. “Nationalists are realising that now – it brings fuel to the fire, yes, but it also complicates their own domestic positioning," said Belin.Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from FranceEurope respondsFrench President Emmanuel Macron was among the first European leaders to sound the alarm on the changing nature of the US-European alliance. "I want to believe that the United States will stay by our side but we have to be prepared for that not to be the case," he said in a televised address to the nation in March.I January, in a speech to French ambassadors, he said: "Ten years ago, who could have imagined it if we had been told that the owner of one of the largest social networks in the world would support a new international reactionary movement and intervene directly in elections, including in Germany."German Chancellor Olaf Scholz followed suit, criticising Musk's decision to give the AfD a platform just weeks before Germany's federal elections.However, Belin points out that the European response is still taking shape. “It's brand new as a phenomenon,” she said. “Europeans were prepared to be challenged on trade, on security – even on Ukraine. But this cultural challenge is unprecedented.”Meloni positions herself as Europe's ‘trump card' on visit to White HouseStill, as Belin notes, Trumpism is not a winning formula everywhere. “Turning fully Trumpist would derail Marine Le Pen's strategy. It's not a winning strategy in France,” she said. “But in more insurgent political systems, it might be."And there is concern too that Trumpism could outlive Trump himself.“There's been a transformation in the perception of America's global role,” Belin said. “And that will stick around. It will be pushed by some of the nationalist parties in our countries. That is the Trumpist legacy”.

As Turkey slipped further down in the latest Press Freedom Index, the country's besieged opposition and independent media are voicing concerns that some of the tech giants are increasingly complicit in government efforts to silence them. While protests continue over the jailing of the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, his account on social media platform X has been cancelled.X, formerly Twitter, claims it was in response to a Turkish court order. Dozens of Imamoglu supporters have also had their accounts suspended, drawing widespread condemnation.The controversy is stoking broader concerns over the stance of the world's tech giants towards Turkey."These international tech companies find it well to keep good relations with the Turkish authorities because their only evaluation is not just on the side of democratic standards," said Erol Onderoglu of the Paris-based Reporters without Borders."But there is another challenge which is based on financial profit. The country's advertising market is very vibrant regarding social media participation," he added.Google is also facing criticism. The US tech giant was recently accused of changing its algorithms, resulting in a collapse in people accessing the websites of Turkey's independent media and therefore depriving the companies of vital advertising revenue.Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activistsFewer alternative voicesUntil now, the internet has provided a platform for alternative voices to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who controls around 90 percent of the mainstream media."Google has a very big effect when you search the web for news, the most visible ones are always from pro-government media or state media. But the omission of independent media from results is just a mystery right now," said Volga Kuscuoglu editor of Bianet English edition.Turkey's independent media is battling arrests and fines by the Turkish authorities. Reporters Without Borders' latest index on press freedom saw Turkey slip further down the rankings to 159 out of 180 countries.Koscuoglu fears the government is seeking to extend its control over the media to the internet."We don't know whether there was any political pressure as no reports have been made about that," said Koscuoglu. "But the government has passed several laws in recent years and those were aimed to bring large social media under control in Turkey."You wouldn't expect Google to be excluded from this control; so yes, there could be political influence on that decision."How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before pollsThreat to reduce bandwidthDuvar, one of Turkey's largest and most prominent independent news portals, closed its doors in March, citing a loss of revenue following the collapse in internet hits, which it blamed on Google's change to algorithms.Google was approached to comment on the accusations but did not reply.However, a spokesperson speaking anonymously to Reuters news agency said that any algorithm changes were simply aimed at enhancing the search facility.Internet experts believe the Turkish government has controlled the world's tech giants by making them liable to Turkish law."The government, in addition to warnings, financial penalties and an advertisement ban, was going to impose a bandwidth restriction," said Yaman Akdeniz, a co-founder of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association."The government was going to throttle the social media platforms that didn't comply...up to 50 percent of their bandwidth access was going to be reduced, and that was going up to 90 percent of their bandwidth being restricted from Turkey."Social media providers didn't want to risk that," he concluded.Press freedom concerns as Ankara forces internet giants to bow to Turkish law'Extinction of pluralism'With some of Turkey's independent media organisations claiming their web activity has dropped by as much as 90 percent in the past few months, many are struggling to survive and are laying off journalists.The experience of Turkey could well be the canary in the mine.Onderoglu of Reporters Without Borders claims the plurality of the media is at stake."Extinction of pluralism within the media, which means that you'll have just one echo from a country which is the official line, is extremely dangerous," he warned."This is the main concern not only in Turkey but in dozens of countries around the world," he added."Journalists are trying to make viable another view within society, another approach from the official one."Questions over Google's power as effective gatekeeper to the internet and what critics claim is the lack of transparency over the search engine's algorithms are likely to grow.Meanwhile, the algorithm changes leave Turkey's besieged independent media, already battling arrests and fines, fighting for financial survival.