RFI goes behind-the-scenes of one of the week's major stories.
Turkish authorities are intensifying their crackdown on Istanbul's imprisoned mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The move comes as İmamoğlu, despite his incarceration, remains President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's principal political rival, with protests continuing over his arrest. On Wednesday, a suburb of Istanbul witnessed the latest demonstration in support of the city's detained mayor. Despite the protest taking place in a traditional electoral stronghold of President Erdoğan, tens of thousands attended.İmamoğlu masksIn a recent attempt to quell the unrest, Istanbul's governor's office issued a decree ordering the removal of all images, videos, and audio recordings of İmamoğlu from state buildings and public transport across the city. Within hours, social media was flooded with footage of people wearing İmamoğlu masks while riding public transport.Turkey's youth rise up over mayor's jailing and worsening economy“Up to 75% are against İmamoğlu's arrest, as the aversion to Erdoğan's attempt to sideline his opponent with foul play was widely distributed by all parties,” claimed political analyst Atilla Yeşilada of Global Source Partners, citing recent opinion polls.Yeşilada argues that the poll's findings underscore the opposition's success in winning over public opinion.“There is a strong reaction. This is not a temporary thing. It's a grievance that will be held and may impact the next election whenever they are held,” he added.Recent opinion polls also show İmamoğlu enjoying a double-digit lead over Erdoğan in a prospective presidential race, with a majority of respondents believing the corruption charges against the mayor are politically motivated—a claim the government denies.Erdogan's jailed rivalsPolitical analyst Sezin Öney of the independent Turkish news portal Politikyol suggests Erdoğan may have expected İmamoğlu to follow the same fate as other jailed rivals, whose influence faded once imprisoned. “The government is counting on the possibility that İmamoğlu is jailed, is out of sight, out of mind, and the presidency will have his ways,” explained Öney.Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayorTurkish authorities have persistently sought to curtail İmamoğlu's presence on social media. His accounts on X (formerly Twitter) and Bluesky have been frozen following court rulings.The fate of opposition journalistsSimilar actions have been taken against opposition journalists and their supporters. “The operation goes deeper and deeper in recent months; it's just a very concerted policy to create a blackout in this vibrant society,” claimed Erol Önderoğlu, Istanbul representative of the Paris-based Reporters Without Borders.The legal crackdown on the Istanbul municipality continues, with further waves of arrests extending even to İmamoğlu's personal bodyguard. His party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), is also under investigation for alleged irregularities at its party congress.Analyst Öney predicts that further crackdowns are likely, given the potential implications for Erdoğan's political future. “I am sure this is being calculated and recalculated every day—whether it's beneficial to throw more cases at him (İmamoğlu), by weakening his party, the Republican People's Party, weakening him personally, or whatever is convenient. But the sky is the limit,” explained Öney.Nevertheless, each new crackdown appears only to fuel the momentum behind opposition protests, which continue to attract large crowds across the country—including in Erdoğan's own political bastions.Protest movementThe leader of the main opposition CHP, Özgür Özel, has earned praise for his energetic performances and has won over many former sceptics. However, analyst Yeşilada questions whether Özel can sustain the protest movement.“I feel in the summer months, it's very difficult to keep the momentum; the colleges are closed, and people are shuffling through the country, so if that (protests) is the only means of piling the pressure on Erdoğan, it's not going to work,” warned Yeşilada.Istanbul's mayorial elections mean more than just running the city Yeşilada believes the opposition leader must elevate his strategy. “Özel needs to find new tricks. It will take two things: A) hearing what the grassroots are saying, in particular the younger generation, and B) being able to reshuffle the party rank and file so true activists are promoted—so they can energise the base,” he added.In 2013, Erdoğan weathered a wave of mass protests which largely dissipated with the closing of universities and the arrival of the summer holidays. This year, he may again be relying on summer to quieten dissent. For the opposition, the challenge is to ensure that Erdoğan's summer is anything but peaceful.
In this week's International Report, RFI's Jan van der Made takes a closer look at the recent Romanian elections, in which centrist candidate Nicușor Dan secured a decisive victory over his far-right rival, George Simion. On 26 May, pro-EU centrist Nicușor Dan was sworn in as President of Romania, having vowed to oppose “isolationism and Russian influence.”Earlier, Dan had emerged victorious in a closely contested election rerun, widely viewed as pivotal for the future direction of the NATO and EU member state of 19 million people, which shares a border with war-torn Ukraine.The vote followed a dramatic decision by Romania's Constitutional Court five months prior to annul a presidential election, citing allegations of Russian interference and the extensive social media promotion of the far-right frontrunner—who was subsequently barred from standing again.Although nationalist and EU-sceptic George Simion had secured a commanding lead in the first round, Dan ultimately prevailed in the second-round run-off.RFI speaks with Claudiu Năsui, former Minister of Economy and member of the Save Romania Union, about the pressing challenges facing the country—from economic reform and political polarisation to the broader implications of the election for Romania's future, including its critical role in supporting Ukraine amid ongoing regional tensions.
Some African leaders regard United States President Donald Trump's decision to halt aid to the continent as an opportunity to foster self-reliance. They have already initiated plans to mobilise the necessary resources to reshape Africa's aid landscape. “Trade, not aid, is now the pillar of our policy in Africa,” said United States ambassador Troy Fitrell, from the Bureau of African Affairs, in a speech on 14 May at business summit in Abidjan.The declaration settles any doubts over the Trump administration's position on aid towards Africa. The US – the world single largest aid donor in the world, according to the United Nations – no longer wants to disburse billions in foreign aid, despite the fact that it represents a small percentage of its entire budget.In 2023, the US spent $71.9 billion in foreign aid, which amounts to 1.2 percent of its entire budget for that fiscal year.President Donald Trump repeatedly stated that aid is a waste. For years, Africa has been the region receiving more funding from the United States than any other.Across the African continent, Trump's executive orders were initially met with shock, anger, and despair — but also with a renewed determination to change course and place African resources at the heart of African healthcare.In February, at an African Union summit, Rwandan President Paul Kagame announced that the AU's health institutions, including the Centres for Disease Control, would take the lead in seeking alternatives to US funding.“Africa now finds itself at a crossroads. The health financing landscape has shifted dramatically.“I propose that, over the next year, we work together to define new mechanisms for concrete collaboration on healthcare among governments, businesses, and philanthropies,” he told African leaders.“The work of building our continent, including our healthcare systems, cannot be outsourced to anyone else.” To untangle what is going on, for this edition of Interntional Report, RFI interviewed Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project; Chris Milligan, former foreign service officer at USAID, in Washington; Mark Heywood, human rights and social justice activist in South Africa, co-founder of the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC); Onikepe Owolabi, vice president of International research at the Guttmacher institute in New York; Monica Oguttu, founding executive director of KMET, Kisumu Medical and Education Trust, in Kenya.
Turkey and the United States are stepping up their cooperation in Syria, strengthening a partnership that has grown despite tensions with Israel. The two countries say they are working more closely on security and stability in the region, reflecting a broader reset in their relationship. The pledge was made during a meeting of the US-Turkey Working Group in Washington, where diplomats committed to “increasing cooperation and coordination on the security and stability of Syria”.Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara, said this signals progress.“I think it shows us that Turkey and the US can get on the same page when it comes to Syria,” he said. “Disagreements in Syria were part of the problem between Turkey and the United States. There are other issues, but this one was one of the core issues.”Unluhisarcikli believes the good chemistry between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump is playing a role.“I think it's significant President Erdogan is one of the leaders that President Trump likes working with and trusts. But of course, this is the case until it's not,” he said.Macron urges Syrian leader to protect minorities after deadly clashesIsraeli pushbackThe move comes despite a warning from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told Trump during his February visit to Washington that Turkey was a security threat in Syria.Both countries have troops in Syria and see each other as rivals.Trump appeared to dismiss Netanyahu's concerns, speaking to the international media from the Oval Office with the Israeli leader at his side.“I told the Prime Minister: Bibi, if you have a problem with Turkey, I really think I can be able to work it out,” Trump said. “I have a really great relationship with Turkey and its leader.”Erdogan, along with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is credited with helping persuade Trump to lift sanctions on Syria. Israeli foreign policy analyst Gallia Lindenstrauss said the decision went against Israel's position.She explained that Israel wanted any easing of sanctions to be linked to concessions by Damascus.“I think the fact the US ambassador to Turkey has been appointed as the envoy to Syria also means the Turkish position will get more attention from the US side,” Lindenstrauss said.“That in itself makes some concern in Israel. Because here Israel has its priorities with regards to Syria, it wants someone pushing Turkey to be more flexible and not, of course, to build bases throughout Syria. That would be a very threatening scenario regarding Israel.”Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common groundTurkish airbasesIsraeli warplanes recently destroyed a Syrian airbase that Turkish forces were preparing to take over. Turkey says its growing military presence, including control of airbases, is aimed at helping Syria's new rulers fight insurgent groups like the Islamic State.“For Turkey, Syria's security and stability are of the utmost importance, and Turkey is devoting resources to keep Syria stable because Syria's stability is so important for Turkey's security, and that's what Israel should understand,” Unluhisarcikli said.But Turkish airbases equipped with missile defences would restrict Israel's freedom to operate in Syrian airspace.“Israel has just found an opportunity, an air corridor towards Iran (via Syrian airspace), which it can use without asking for permission from any third party,” Unluhisarcikli said. “If Turkey takes over the bases, then Israel would need to get permission from Turkey, which it doesn't want to, and I think that's understandable.”Azerbaijan has been mediating talks between Israel and Turkey to reduce tensions. The two sides have reportedly set up deconfliction systems, including a hotline.“There has been progress between Israel and Turkey over Syria. There have been at least three announced talks in Azerbaijan which is positive,” Lindenstrauss said.PKK ends 40-year fight but doubts remain about the next stepsIran and the F-35sIran's nuclear programme is another source of friction between Israel and Turkey.Unluhisarcikli said Trump seems to be leaning more towards Erdogan's view than Netanyahu's.“For Turkey, military conflict with Iran is a very bad scenario. I am not entirely sure that's how Trump feels, but for him, any conflict should be just a second choice because conflict is not good for business," Unluhisarcikli said."It seems Israel has made the judgment that it is time for military action, the time for talking is over. There should be military action. Trump disagrees. He thinks he does have a chance of negotiating.”US and Iranian negotiators met in Rome on Friday for the fifth round of talks. Erdogan supports the talks and has also claimed that Trump is open to lifting the US embargo on selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. That would remove Israel's technical advantage in the air.Trump's increasingly close relationship with Erdogan comes amid reports that he is uneasy about Israel's war in Gaza. But Lindenstrauss warned that Israel is counting on Trump's unpredictability.“We know that Trump has a basic favourable view towards Erdogan. This was already in his first term, and it is continuing now. But we also know that Trump can be tough towards Turkey, and he did implement sanctions against Turkey in his first term," she said."So this good relationship depends on whether Turkey is in line with US interests. But of course, Israel is watching.”However, with Israel's war in Gaza showing little signs of ending, threatening further diplomatic isolation, Erdogan for now appears to have Trump's ear, with the two leaders sharing similar agendas.
The Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK, has announced the end to its more than forty-year fight against Turkey, a conflict that claimed more than 40,000 lives. But the declaration, called historic by Turkish officials, is being met by public skepticism with questions remaining over disarmament and its calls for democratic reforms. Upon hearing the news that the PKK was ending its war and disarming, Kurds danced in the streets of the predominantly Kurdish southeast of Turkey. The region bore the brunt of the brutal conflict, with the overwhelming majority of those killed being civilians, and millions more displaced.From armed struggle to political arena"It is a historic moment. This conflict has been going on for almost half a century," declared Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank."And for them [the PKK] to say that the period of armed struggle is over and that they are going to transition to a major political struggle is very important."The PKK, designated as a terrorist organisation by the European Union and most of Turkey's Western allies, launched its armed struggle in 1984 for Kurdish rights and independence. At the time, Turkey was ruled by the military, which did not even acknowledge the existence of Kurds, referring to them as “Mountain Turks.”Nearly fifty years later, however, Turkey is a different place. The third-largest parliamentary party is the pro-Kurdish Dem Party. In its declaration ending its armed struggle and announcing its dissolution, the PKK stated that there is now space in Turkey to pursue its goals through political means.However, military realities are thought to be behind the PKK's decision to end its campaign. “From a technical and military point of view, the PKK lost,” observed Aydın Selcan, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region.“For almost ten years, there have been no armed attacks by the PKK inside Turkey because they are no longer capable of doing so. And in the northern half of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, there is now almost no PKK presence,” added Selcan.Selcan also claims the PKK could be seeking to consolidate its military gains in Syria. “For the first time in history, the PKK's Syrian offshoot, the YPG, has begun administering a region. So it's important for the organisation to preserve that administration.“They've rebranded themselves as a political organisation.” Turkish forces have repeatedly launched military operations in Syria against the YPG. However, the Syrian Kurdish forces have reached a tentative agreement with Damascus's new rulers—whom Ankara supports.Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace Erdoğan's high-stakes gambleFor Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is trailing in opinion polls and facing growing protests over the arrest of his main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, on alleged corruption charges, this could be a golden opportunity. “This is a win for Erdoğan, no doubt,” claimed analyst Aydıntaşbaş.Along with favourable headlines, the PKK's peace announcement offers a solution to a major political headache for Erdoğan. The Turkish president wants to amend the constitution to remove term limits, allowing him to run again for the presidency.The pro-Kurdish Dem Party holds the parliamentary votes Erdoğan needs. “Yes, Erdoğan, of course, will be negotiating with Kurds for constitutional changes,” said Aydıntaşbaş.“Now we are entering a very transactional period in Turkish politics. Instead of repressing Kurds, it's going to be about negotiating with them. And it may persuade the pro-Kurdish faction—which forms the third-largest bloc in Turkish politics—to peel away from the opposition camp,” added Aydıntaşbaş.However, Aydıntaşbaş warns that Erdoğan will need to convince his voter base, which remains sceptical of any peace process with the PKK. According to a recent opinion poll, three out of four respondents opposed the peace process, with a majority of Erdoğan's AK Party supporters against it.For decades, the PKK has been portrayed in Turkey as a brutal terrorist organisation, and its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, is routinely referred to by politicians and much of the media as “the baby killer.” Critics argue the government has failed to adequately prepare the public for peace.“In peace processes around the world, we see a strong emphasis on convincing society,” observed Sezin Öney, a political commentator at Turkey's PolitikYol news portal. “There are reconciliation processes, truth commissions, etc., all designed to gain public support. But in our case, it's like surgery without anaesthesia—an operation begun without any sedatives,” added Öney.Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in IraqPolitical concessions?Public pressure on Erdoğan is expected to grow, as the PKK and Kurdish political leaders demand concessions to facilitate the peace and disarmament process.“In the next few months, the government is, first of all, expected to change the prison conditions of Öcalan,” explained Professor Mesut Yeğen of the Istanbul-based Reform Institute.“The second expectation is the release of those in poor health who are currently in jail. And for the disarmament process to proceed smoothly, there should be an amnesty or a reduction in sentences, allowing PKK convicts in Turkish prisons to be freed and ensuring that returning PKK militants are not imprisoned,” Yeğen added.Yeğen claimed that tens of thousands of political prisoners may need to be released, along with the reinstatement of Dem Party mayors who were removed from office under anti-terrorism legislation.Turkey's Saturday Mothers keep up vigil for lost relativesErdoğan has ruled out any concessions until the PKK disarms, but has said that “good things” will follow disarmament. Meanwhile, the main opposition CHP Party, while welcoming the peace initiative, insists that any democratic reforms directed at the Kurdish minority must be extended to wider society—starting with the release of İmamoğlu, Erdoğan's chief political rival.While the peace process is widely seen as a political victory for Erdoğan, it could yet become a liability for the president, who risks being caught between a sceptical voter base and an impatient Kurdish population demanding concessions.
Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations tells RFI that Donald Trump's administration is treating Europe less as a partner and more as a rival. In backing nationalist movements and undermining multilateral institutions, it is exporting a political mode of operation that risks fracturing European unity. The impact of Donald Trump's second term in the White House is being felt far beyond US borders. Observers say this ripple effect can be seen across Europe, not just in policy but in the continent's political culture itself.For Dr Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the stakes are nothing less than the future of European liberal democracy.In her latest ECFR report, MAGA Goes Global: Trump's Plan for Europe, Belin warns that what might appear to be chaotic decisions from the Oval Office are, in fact, part of an ideological project.“There's actually a strong direction, a clear destination,” Belin told RFI. “Trump, surrounded by loyalists and MAGA Republicans, is ready to implement his plan – to push back on liberal democracy, and to push back on Europe."According to her, he sees Europe as “an extension of his political enemies – liberals and progressives” and views its institutions as bureaucratic hurdles rather than allies in global leadership.Culture wars without bordersTrump's administration – bolstered by figures including Vice President JD Vance and media mogul Elon Musk – has also made overtures to Europe's far right.They have voiced support for Germany's far-right AfD party and France's Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, including on Musk's social media platform X (formerly Twitter) – helping to disseminate nationalist and populist rhetoric across the continent.“We're seeing a systematic attack on the liberal model that Europe represents,” said Belin. “This ‘Trumpian wave' has fired up nationalist opposition in Europe, even if it hasn't created a united front."‘Free Le Pen': US conservatives rally behind French far-right leaderNon merci to MAGAHowever, some of the European political parties that share Trump's scepticism of liberal institutions are treading carefully when it comes to embracing his brand of politics.While leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary openly welcome MAGA-style backing, others see it as a double-edged sword.Following her recent legal conviction, Le Pen received support from MAGA-aligned figures. But her party responded with conspicuous silence.“They don't want or need this Trumpian support,” Belin noted. “Their political strategy is not about aligning with MAGA America – it's more French, more sovereignist."Embracing Trump too openly could risk undermining years of effort to mainstream the National Rally's image. “Nationalists are realising that now – it brings fuel to the fire, yes, but it also complicates their own domestic positioning," said Belin.Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from FranceEurope respondsFrench President Emmanuel Macron was among the first European leaders to sound the alarm on the changing nature of the US-European alliance. "I want to believe that the United States will stay by our side but we have to be prepared for that not to be the case," he said in a televised address to the nation in March.I January, in a speech to French ambassadors, he said: "Ten years ago, who could have imagined it if we had been told that the owner of one of the largest social networks in the world would support a new international reactionary movement and intervene directly in elections, including in Germany."German Chancellor Olaf Scholz followed suit, criticising Musk's decision to give the AfD a platform just weeks before Germany's federal elections.However, Belin points out that the European response is still taking shape. “It's brand new as a phenomenon,” she said. “Europeans were prepared to be challenged on trade, on security – even on Ukraine. But this cultural challenge is unprecedented.”Meloni positions herself as Europe's ‘trump card' on visit to White HouseStill, as Belin notes, Trumpism is not a winning formula everywhere. “Turning fully Trumpist would derail Marine Le Pen's strategy. It's not a winning strategy in France,” she said. “But in more insurgent political systems, it might be."And there is concern too that Trumpism could outlive Trump himself.“There's been a transformation in the perception of America's global role,” Belin said. “And that will stick around. It will be pushed by some of the nationalist parties in our countries. That is the Trumpist legacy”.
As Turkey slipped further down in the latest Press Freedom Index, the country's besieged opposition and independent media are voicing concerns that some of the tech giants are increasingly complicit in government efforts to silence them. While protests continue over the jailing of the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, his account on social media platform X has been cancelled.X, formerly Twitter, claims it was in response to a Turkish court order. Dozens of Imamoglu supporters have also had their accounts suspended, drawing widespread condemnation.The controversy is stoking broader concerns over the stance of the world's tech giants towards Turkey."These international tech companies find it well to keep good relations with the Turkish authorities because their only evaluation is not just on the side of democratic standards," said Erol Onderoglu of the Paris-based Reporters without Borders."But there is another challenge which is based on financial profit. The country's advertising market is very vibrant regarding social media participation," he added.Google is also facing criticism. The US tech giant was recently accused of changing its algorithms, resulting in a collapse in people accessing the websites of Turkey's independent media and therefore depriving the companies of vital advertising revenue.Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activistsFewer alternative voicesUntil now, the internet has provided a platform for alternative voices to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who controls around 90 percent of the mainstream media."Google has a very big effect when you search the web for news, the most visible ones are always from pro-government media or state media. But the omission of independent media from results is just a mystery right now," said Volga Kuscuoglu editor of Bianet English edition.Turkey's independent media is battling arrests and fines by the Turkish authorities. Reporters Without Borders' latest index on press freedom saw Turkey slip further down the rankings to 159 out of 180 countries.Koscuoglu fears the government is seeking to extend its control over the media to the internet."We don't know whether there was any political pressure as no reports have been made about that," said Koscuoglu. "But the government has passed several laws in recent years and those were aimed to bring large social media under control in Turkey."You wouldn't expect Google to be excluded from this control; so yes, there could be political influence on that decision."How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before pollsThreat to reduce bandwidthDuvar, one of Turkey's largest and most prominent independent news portals, closed its doors in March, citing a loss of revenue following the collapse in internet hits, which it blamed on Google's change to algorithms.Google was approached to comment on the accusations but did not reply.However, a spokesperson speaking anonymously to Reuters news agency said that any algorithm changes were simply aimed at enhancing the search facility.Internet experts believe the Turkish government has controlled the world's tech giants by making them liable to Turkish law."The government, in addition to warnings, financial penalties and an advertisement ban, was going to impose a bandwidth restriction," said Yaman Akdeniz, a co-founder of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association."The government was going to throttle the social media platforms that didn't comply...up to 50 percent of their bandwidth access was going to be reduced, and that was going up to 90 percent of their bandwidth being restricted from Turkey."Social media providers didn't want to risk that," he concluded.Press freedom concerns as Ankara forces internet giants to bow to Turkish law'Extinction of pluralism'With some of Turkey's independent media organisations claiming their web activity has dropped by as much as 90 percent in the past few months, many are struggling to survive and are laying off journalists.The experience of Turkey could well be the canary in the mine.Onderoglu of Reporters Without Borders claims the plurality of the media is at stake."Extinction of pluralism within the media, which means that you'll have just one echo from a country which is the official line, is extremely dangerous," he warned."This is the main concern not only in Turkey but in dozens of countries around the world," he added."Journalists are trying to make viable another view within society, another approach from the official one."Questions over Google's power as effective gatekeeper to the internet and what critics claim is the lack of transparency over the search engine's algorithms are likely to grow.Meanwhile, the algorithm changes leave Turkey's besieged independent media, already battling arrests and fines, fighting for financial survival.
Increasingly tense relations between South Africa and the United States have been marked by trade threats, diplomatic expulsions and deepening divisions over global conflicts. But despite the pressure, South Africa is not backing down on key principles. Foreign Affairs Minister Ronald Lamola tells RFI their “dynamic and evolving” relationship must be nurtured – yet he insists not everything can be negotiated. Relations have been turbulent since Donald Trump took office in January. Cooperation on trade, health, defence and diplomacy has suffered after several of Trump's executive orders.The US is South Africa's second largest trading partner, but exports to America now face 30 percent tariffs.On 7 February, Trump issued an executive order to resettle white South African refugees, saying the country's leaders were doing “some terrible things, horrible things”.US media say the first group of Afrikaner (white South Africans) "refugees" is due to arrive as from 12 May. South Africa expressed its "concerns" to the United States on 9 May and reiterated that "allegations of discrimination are unfounded".On 14 April, South Africa named former deputy Finance Minister Mcebesi Jonas as its special envoy to Washington after ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was expelled.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Rasool was “no longer welcome” in America, calling him “a race-baiting politician who hates America” and Trump.President Cyril Ramaphosa and Trump spoke on the phone on 24 April in what was described as a cordial exchange. Trump invited Ramaphosa to Washington and suggested he “bring the golfers over”.South Africa unites against Trump as US freezes aid over land reformRFI: Where are we at today with the relationship between South Africa and the United States?Ronald Lamola: The relationship has always been dynamic and evolving, obviously with more challenges since the election of President Trump, particularly with the number of executive orders that are not based on any facts or truths.In South Africa, the expropriation bills are aimed at redressing the imbalances of the past to ensure there is equitable distribution of all the resources of our country. This is done in line with the constitution, which has got sufficient safeguards against any arbitrary use of power by the executive or by the state.It is in that context that we continue to engage with Washington because the relationship remains important. Washington is our strategic trading partner, the second biggest after China.RFI: Is there more going on behind the scenes than we can see? Are relations improving despite the tensions?Ronald Lamola: Indeed, there are still challenges, but we continue to engage at a diplomatic level.International Court of Justice hears South Africa's genocide case against IsraelRFI: Is South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice being used as a bargaining chip?Ronald Lamola: No, it cannot be used as a bargaining chip. This is a matter of principle.Our history is linked to that of Palestine and, as Nelson Mandela said, the struggle of South Africa is not complete until the Palestinian people are also free. There has been propaganda that Iran or Hamas is paying for these legal fees.You can check the departmental websites where all reports are recorded. It is the South African government tax money that is paying for this case. There is no other hidden hand paying for the case.RFI: Can you imagine a scenario where the United States might ask South Africa to drop the case against Israel in order to continue enjoying good relations with Washington?Ronald Lamola: Unfortunately, I cannot imagine things that I don't know.RFI: What would South Africa's position be if that were to happen?Ronald Lamola: I don't want to speculate about anything or any scenarios. We deal with what is in front of us.As you are aware, in one of the executive orders, this issue of the case has been raised and, also in some of the bills that are before Congress. But this is a matter of principle. It's based on the Genocide Convention. Principles cannot be negotiated.RFI: Where does the case at the ICJ stand now?Ronald Lamola: We are waiting for Israel to respond. As you are aware, we filed a memorial last year in June. The case has to take its normal course. The court must decide because the future of the world is dependent on certainty, on a rules-based international order, which is based on international law.We have to ensure that international law is respected by all. The might cannot always be right.RFI: South Africa says it will not cut ties with historic allies. President Ramaphosa said that South Africa will not be bullied. Is there a price to pay for standing by your principles?Ronald Lamola: Nations must respect and abide by the rule of law. We are signatories to the Genocide Convention. We will respect and live by the UN Charter. Obviously, there will be pain that may come with it, but this is the pain we need to pay for the people of the world.South Africa is a product of solidarity. We would not be free if it was not for the people of the world who suffered and stood in solidarity with us. So, we owe it to the people of the world to ensure that the UN Conventions and the UN Charter are protected and defended.EU flags stronger partnership with South Africa with €4.7bn investmentRFI: The US is South Africa's second largest trading partner. How can your country absorb the blow of 30 percent tariffs, if they go through by mid-July?Obviously, it is going to be very difficult and damaging to our economy. We see it also as an opportunity for us to engage in bilateral agreements with the US that are mutually beneficial.There are South African businesses invested in the US, and also US businesses invested in our country. About 601 companies from the US have invested in South Africa, responsible for more than 150,000 jobs in our country.It is an important dynamic relationship, which has also brought a lot of technology in our country and improved our economy.But, we also have to diversify markets. We are glad that the EU is opening its market to work with us and trade with us. We are also looking at other countries to trade with us.We will, however, continue to engage with the US because we believe the relationship is mutually beneficial and we have to continue to nurture it for the benefit of our two nations.This interview has been lightly edited for clarity
During the first 100 days of his second term in office, US President Donald Trump has issued a series of executive orders that have unsettled the commodities market and prompted investors to hold off from making new investments in African economies. In the last three months, Trump has presented the world with “a ding-dong of measures and counter-measures," as Nigerian finance analyst Gbolahan Olojede put it.With such measures including increased tariffs on US imports from African nations (as elsewhere), this new regime has effectively called into question the future validity of preferential trade agreements with African states – such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows duty-free access, under strict conditions, to the US market for African goods."The reciprocal tariffs effectively nullify the preferences that sub-Saharan Africa countries enjoy under AGOA," South Africa's foreign and trade ministers said in a joint statement on 4 April.Jon Marks, editorial director of energy consultancy and news service African Energy, echoed this climate of uncertainty: “With the Trump presidency lurching from policy to policy, no one knows where they are. And it's very difficult to actually see order within this chaos."Africa braces for economic hit as Trump's tariffs end US trade perksHe told RFI he expects long periods of stasis, in which nothing actually happens, when people have been expecting immediate action.“That's going to be, I think, devastating for markets, devastating for investment. The outlook really is grim," he added.CommoditiesIn 2024, US exports to Africa were worth $32.1 billion. The US imported $39.5 billion worth of goods from Africa, the bulk of these being commodities such as oil and gas, as well as rare minerals including lithium, copper and cobalt.“The focus of the Trump administration is on critical minerals now, particularly in the [Democratic Republic of Congo], which is the Saudi Arabia of cobalt,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project news site.The US is aiming to build non-Chinese supply chains for its military technology.“The F-35s, supersonic fighter jets, need cobalt. When they look at critical minerals, they're not looking at that for renewable energy. They're looking at it specifically for weapons and for their defence infrastructure,” Olander explained.Collateral damageOn 2 April, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on US imports worldwide, declaring that the US “has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far” and calling this date a “Liberation Day” which will make “America wealthy again”.Stock markets immediately plummeted as a result of his announcement.On 9 April, Trump announced a 90-day pause – until mid-July – on these tariffs. Instead, a flat 10 percent rate will be applied on exports to the US.The exception was China, whose goods face even higher tariffs – 145 percent on most Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with 125 percent levies on US imports.According to Olander, most African nations have so far been “insulated from the harsh impact of these tariffs” and from the consequences of what is, in effect, a trade war between two economic giants – China and the US.“South Africa, which accounts for a considerable amount of Africa's trade with the United States, is much more exposed to the effects of these tariffs than the rest of the continent,” he said.Africa FirstBut what if Trump's "America First" agenda was to be copied, asks Kelvin Lewis, editor of the Awoko newspaper in Sierra Leone.“Just like Trump is saying America First, we should think Sierra Leone First,” he told RFI. “He is teaching everyone how to be patriotic. We have no reason to depend on other people, to go cap in hand begging, because we have enough natural resources to feed and house all 9 million of us Sierra Leoneans.”He added: “If Africa says we close shop and we use our own resources for our benefit like Trump is telling Americans, I think the rest of the world would stand up and take notice.”Meanwhile, Trump believes his imposition of these increased tariffs has succeeded in bringing countries to the negotiating table.“I'm telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are dying to make a deal. Please, please sir, make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, sir,” Trump said on 8 April at a Republican Congress committee dinner in Washington.New marketsOlander believes that the trade war instigated by Trump has resulted in more risks than opportunities for Africa's vulnerable countries.“But, there is a lot more activity now diplomatically between African countries and other non-US countries,” he added.“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from Ethiopia was in Vietnam, as was Burundi's president. There's more engagement between Uganda and Indonesia, more trade activity and discussions between Brazil and Africa.”Foreign ministers from the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) met in Rio de Janeiro on 28 April to coordinate their response to Trump's trade policy.However, securing markets for non-US exports is a challenging task. It took Kenya 10 years “of steady diplomacy” to get China to fund the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to the Ugandan border, according to Olander.Kenyan president visits China as country pivots away from the US“Whether it's in China, Indonesia, Brazil or elsewhere, it takes time. Exporting into developed G7 markets means facing an enormous number of hurdles, like agricultural restrictions,” he continued. “Then, in the global south, Angola is not going to sell bananas to Brazil, right?”“Trump's trade policies have actually been to depress the oil price,” said Marks. “The price has been under the psychologically low threshold of $70 a barrel.He explains it is because of the demand destruction Trump's policies have placed on global trading.Demand destruction means that people are not investing, “ Marks said. “It's really a period of wait-and-see.”“This will affect prices very profoundly. One of the ironies is that although a lower dollar means that African economies should be able to export their goods for more money, a declining dollar amidst market uncertainties means that investors are not going to be rushing to come into Africa.”
Donald Trump's return to the White House has brought with it a seismic shift in transatlantic dynamics, with rising trade tensions, reduced diplomatic engagement and growing uncertainty over the future of Western alliances. So what has been the early impact of his second term on EU–US relations and how is Europe responding? With Trump's administration wasting no time in rekindling the “America First” doctrine, this time with fewer diplomatic niceties, tensions over trade, diplomacy and the long-term stability of the transatlantic alliance quickly arose. From the imposition of sweeping tariffs on EU goods – 20 percent across the board, covering all exports from France and other member states – to a reduction in support for Ukraine, Trump's early moves have sent a clear message: Washington's priorities have shifted – and not in Europe's favour.Brussels' response, while restrained, has been firm, and the sense that Europe can no longer rely fully on Washington is taking root.Trump's tariffs come into force, upending economic ties with EuropeRetreat, rather than reformOne of the most striking aspects of Trump's second term so far is his rapid dismantling of traditional US diplomatic structures.Former US diplomat William Jordan warns that the institutional capacity of American diplomacy is being hollowed out. “The notion of America First risks turning into America Alone,” he said.“Everything that's been happening since 20 January has largely demoralised and damaged the State Department."There has been an exodus of seasoned diplomats, alongside a wave of politically motivated "loyalty tests" handed out to charities, NGOs and United Nations agencies as part of the State Department's review of foreign aid – asking them to declare whether they have worked with "entities associated with communist, socialist, or totalitarian parties, or any parties that espouses anti-American beliefs".European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clashThe cumulative effect of this threat to the impartiality of America's foreign service, Jordan notes, is a profound erosion of trust – not just within US institutions but among global partners.“There are worries in the intelligence community that longstanding partners can no longer share sensitive information with the United States,” he added, raising concerns about the durability of intelligence alliances such as Five Eyes, comprising the US, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.Trump's decision to scale back overseas missions and USAID funding has also left vast vacuums of influence – particularly in Africa, where both China and Russia are stepping in to fill the void.“It's not just that it's being done – it's how it's being done. Brutally. Recklessly. Slashing and burning institutions that have taken decades to build,” Jordan told RFI.Amid this weakening of America's traditional soft power influence, however, Jordan also cautions that the country's soft power strategies have not always been effective, pointing to congressional inertia and overlapping funding mandates which have dulled strategic impact.Still, he maintains, a haphazard retreat does more harm than reform.A dressing-down in MunichEurope's discomfort was visible in February at the Munich Security Conference, where US Vice President JD Vance delivered a remarkable rebuke to European leaders, accusing them of wavering on democratic values.The message was harsh, and the delivery even more so – an unprecedented public dressing-down in a diplomatic forum. The reaction in Munich embodied Europe's growing unease.European fears mount at Munich conference as US signals shift on Ukraine“Certainly the language was something that you wouldn't expect,” Mairéad McGuinness, the former EU Commissioner for Financial Stability told RFI.“This is somebody coming to our house and telling us they don't like how we run it. It's not what you expect between friends and allies. Was it a surprise? Maybe not,” she added. “But it's not normal."The incident underscored an increasingly assertive US posture under Trump 2.0, and the deepening fissures within the Western alliance, reflected in the new administration's willingness to publicly challenge long-standing relationships.European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clash'Confidence in the US is eroding'The EU has responded with a measured approach – "how the European Union tends to do its business,” according to McGuinness.“What is problematic is trying to understand exactly what the US side wants,” she continued. “We're hearing not just about tariffs, but also about food safety, financial regulation – areas where Europe leads globally."Rather than caving to pressure, the EU is showing signs of a more confident and coordinated strategic posture – in a similar vein to its response during the Covid-19 crisis and its rapid support for Ukraine following Russia's 2022 invasion.One consequence of these shifting diplomatic sands has been a rise in investment in European defence, following the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine.EU Commission chief calls for defence 'surge' in address to EU parliamentWith EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing that, under the Rearm Europe plan announced by on 6 March, EU member states can boost defence spending, European arms manufacturers are seizing the opportunity to compete against their US rivals.While not a wholesale pivot away from the US, it signals a broader awareness that over-reliance on any single partner carries risks.William Jordan put it bluntly: “Confidence in the US as a reliable partner is eroding, and not just in Europe.”For him, this moment could present an opportunity for Europe to build a more independent and robust security architecture – one less vulnerable to the whims of any one American president.
US President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office have been marked by unprecedented volatility and deep divisions across the country. Praised by supporters for his pledges to "restore faith in government" and "secure borders," his tenure has also provoked widespread concern among Democrats and political analysts, who criticise his erratic style and sweeping executive orders that have disrupted established institutions and international alliances.Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from FranceThe Trump administration has issued over 130 executive orders, including mass dismissals, aggressive immigration enforcement, and withdrawal from climate accords—measures that have had profound social and economic consequences.Critics warn that such actions erode democratic norms and due process, while grassroots protests and public demonstrations have surged across the country in response to policies widely viewed as damaging to communities and public services.Trump's first 100 days: Grassroots pick up Democratic slack as 'chaos' unfoldsIn this international report, we look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, with experts suggesting that Trump's confrontational approach and divisive policies could ultimately backfire on the Republican Party—potentially costing it crucial support.
As Canada heads to the polls on Monday, a historic shift in national identity and foreign policy is unfolding, driven by growing disillusionment with the United States and a renewed embrace of European alliances. Across Canada there is a strong sense that this crucial election is about more than domestic policy.It is being seen as a referendum not just on leadership, but on Canada's place in the world – particularly in terms of its increasingly strained relationship with the United States and a growing desire to forge closer ties with allies in Europe.“This election really matters,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a Canadian, non-profit polling organisation.“More than nine in 10 Canadians say it's more important than the last two elections – and over seven and a half million have already voted early. That's huge, in a country of just over 40 million."From Trudeau to CarneyThe election follows the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January, after nearly a decade in office.While once a global liberal icon, Trudeau had seen his domestic popularity plunge, and by the end of 2024 his Liberal Party was trailing the opposition Conservatives by 30 percentage points.His departure set the stage for Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor, to step into the political spotlight as the new Liberal party leader.But it wasn't just the change in Liberal leadership that shifted the political winds.“The other main character,” as Kurl put it, “was Donald Trump."Trump unveils sweeping US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China - EU next?Trump's re-emergence on the US political stage – and his increasingly provocative comments about Canada – electrified the Canadian political conversation.He floated ideas about annexation, referred to Canada as "ripe for reabsorption", and reintroduced aggressive trade rhetoric – all of which triggered a wave of public backlash north of the border.“Canadians initially dismissed it as Trump being Trump,” Kurl told RFI. “But the more he talked, the more seriously people took it. There was real anger, a sense of betrayal – and the politicians who leaned into that emotion did well”.Nationalism, the Canadian wayCarney responded with a tone rarely seen in Canadian politics: firm, unapologetic nationalism.He rejected Trump's rhetoric outright, reiterated Canada's sovereignty and committed to defending Canadian interests – economically and politically.“We don't tend to do overt nationalism in Canada,” Kurl explained. “But this time, it worked."We saw a huge swing in the polls – from a 30-point deficit to a five-point Liberal lead today. And that shift is in no small part down to Carney embracing a message of pride and independence."What's changed most dramatically is the tone of Canada's relationship with the US, once its closest ally.Kurl notes that Canadian travel to the US has dropped significantly in recent months, a reflection of a more widespread cooling of sentiment towards the country's southern neighbour.“The US was Canada's best friend – not just its biggest trading partner, but emotionally too. And now people are saying, this just isn't working."And for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, this has been a missed opportunity, as he ignored the Trump factor until the campaign was already under way.For Kurl, Poilievre's recognition of Canadian anger and disappointment with the US came "too little, too late".New Canadian PM in Europe to seek 'reliable partners' amidst trade war with USLooking towards EuropeIn Carney's first foreign visit as prime minister, he bypassed Washington opting instead to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.The symbolism was clear: Canada is looking elsewhere for dependable allies.That shift is not just diplomatic theatre. The Carney-Macron meeting produced agreements on cybersecurity, clean energy and artificial intelligence, and reaffirmed both countries' support for Ukraine.This new strategic alignment has deep roots – particularly in Quebec, where cultural and historical ties to France have given the pivot to Europe added momentum and legitimacy.“It's not just short-term crisis management,” said Kurl. “Canada's been burned before by Trump. During his first term, we saw the renegotiation of Nafta and a lot of anti-Canada trade rhetoric. But nothing really changed – the economy remained heavily tied to the US. This time, there's a real sense that we need to act, not just wait it out."That said, a full break with the US is not on the cards.“There can never be a complete divorce,” Kurl concedes. “Our economies are deeply intertwined, and we share a very, very long border. But there is a renewed focus: Canada must diversify its economic relationships. It can't afford not to."French PM defends Ceta trade deal on visit to Canada, despite lawmakers' rejectionFor voters, this election is about who can best protect Canada's independence, its values and its interests, in an increasingly volatile international environment.As Kurl said: "Canadians are taking this election very seriously, because they know what's at stake. The question is no longer just, who should lead us? It's, where do we go from here?"
The global car industry is facing major upheaval after US President Donald Trump imposed a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports in early April – the highest so far in the US-China trade dispute. The tariffs, which apply to dozens of countries including US allies, aim to protect American manufacturing. But they are also making car production and trade more expensive and complicated, especially for automakers and consumers in the US and China.Bill Russo, CEO of Automobility, a Shanghai-based think tank, said the auto industry has long depended on large, low-cost markets, with China at the centre. He said the new tariffs disrupt this model by raising costs and making it harder for companies using cheaper Chinese production to stay competitive.US automakers and consumers are likely to face higher costs, he said, while Chinese carmakers will be less affected because they do not rely heavily on the US market.The US tariffs are also likely to change how the European Union deals with China.While the EU has already imposed its own tariffs on Chinese goods, mainly electric cars, Beijing and Brussels are now more likely to work together in response to Washington's “America First” approach.EU votes to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
Thousands of young people across Turkey are protesting against the jailing of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main rival. Many say they no longer fear prison, claiming they have nothing left to lose. University students were among the first to take to the streets after Imamoglu was detained last month. They believe his arrest was politically motivated, though the government denies this.“We are all sick and tired of the oppression that has been going on for such a while, and we are all fed up with it,” said an Istanbul university student who did not want to be named for fear of retribution.“All these things that happened to Ekrem Imamoglu and all the other political people that are sent to jail, we are just fed up. We can't take it anymore, so we are here to protest against the government.”For another student, the protests go beyond Imamoglu's case.“Everyone realises that it is not just a problem about Ekrem Imamoglu. We have a lot of problems in our country because of the economy, the inflation, because of the justice, because of the femicide, we have a lot of problems with our country,” she said.Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common groundYouth defy fear of arrestThe protests are the largest seen against Erdogan's government in more than 10 years.Until now, political apathy, a weak opposition and a harsh crackdown on dissent have left few willing to challenge Erdogan's AK Party. But the country's youth are emerging as a key force for change.“They were really the ones that carried the first protests, they were the vanguards,” said Sezin Oney, a political commentator with Halk TV.Oney said many young people are losing hope due to widespread nepotism and corruption.“If you are not connected to somebody, even if you get the best education, then it does not matter; you have to have connections; this is how they are feeling," she said."They are striving for certain values; they are describing it as something that has to do with justice, with democracy, everything this government doesn't represent."Turkey's opposition calls for boycott as anti-Erdogan protests continueEconomy in free fallTurkey's youth have grown up in a country where 90 percent of the media is controlled by the state or its allies, and schools are designed to produce what Erdogan once called a loyal, pious generation.But that goal seems out of reach. “An overwhelming majority of the young people right now in Turkey prefer a pluralistic democratic system to a one-man strong system,” said Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul Economics Research, a polling firm.Selcuki said the sharp divides between secular and religious youth, once used by Erdogan to hold onto power, are fading as shared economic problems take centre stage. Turkey faces double-digit inflation and high youth unemployment.“As the economy is spiralling down, these young people find more common denominators in this worsening economy, making identity leverages disappear,” said Selcuki.“So the bad situation of the economy is bringing these young people together in a more socio-economic level, from a more class perspective.”Erdoğan tightens his grip with crackdown on protests while Europe stays silentCrackdown on dissent widensThe unrest has now spread to high schools, after the government decided to redeploy tens of thousands of teachers. Pupils in schools across the country have staged rare protests.Erdogan has reportedly asked his party to investigate the causes of the growing discontent.For now, the government is vowing to crack down. Court cases have begun against hundreds of protestors, most of them students, with prosecutors seeking up to three-year prison terms.Many detainees say they were beaten in custody, which authorities deny.New laws are also being discussed to curb further unrest. “There is a new crime they (the government) are trying to formulate, ‘disturbing the public order.' When you create this crime, then you can arrest basically anyone,” said Oney.“But I don't think it will succeed. The thing is especially the youth is thinking they have nothing to lose, they have reached their tipping point. There will be more arrests and more protests, it will be a vicious cycle, unfortunately.”Turkey is already seeing record numbers of highly educated people leave the country, but many young protestors say leaving is not an option. For them, staying and resisting is the only choice they have left.
With Ankara warning Tehran not to undermine Syria's new rulers and its ongoing peace efforts with Kurdish rebels, regional rivalry with Iran has been intensifying. However, Turkey's concerns about potential US military action against Iran over its nuclear energy programme are now providing a rare point of convergence between the two rivals. After months of diplomatic barbs and threats exchanged between Ankara and Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Wednesday praised his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, for what he described as a “constructive and supportive position” regarding the indirect US-Iranian talks in Oman over Iran's nuclear energy programme.Oman TalksThe Oman talks aim to avert a possible US military strike on Iran, an option that President Donald Trump has not ruled out. Despite the strained relations with Tehran, avoiding confrontation remains a priority for Ankara.“Turkey would be concerned for many reasons,” claims Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, who heads the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara.“This would be just another war on Turkey's borders. Turkey would have to deal with difficult problems, and instability in Iran would almost certainly lead to an additional wave of refugees,” he added.Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peaceTurkish diplomatic tensions with Iran have been on the rise, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issuing thinly veiled threats to Tehran, urging it not to interfere in Ankara's efforts to end the conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long campaign for greater minority rights within Turkey.“Ankara believes that Iran is trying to undermine this [peace] process both in Turkey and in Syria,” observes Serhan Afacan, who heads the Centre for Iranian Studies, a research organisation based in Ankara.In February, the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, called for his organisation to disarm. With the PKK operating from bases in Iraq and having an affiliated group in Syria, Ankara has frequently accused Tehran of using the PKK as a proxy in its regional contest for power and influence. Afacan contends that Ankara fears Tehran still holds sway over the Kurdish rebels.“Especially in Syria, Iran might try to convince them not to respond positively to Öcalan's call – this has been Turkey's main concern,” warned Afacan.Iranian uneaseThe recent ousting of long-time Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has deprived Iran of a key ally, while Syria's new rulers are aligned with Ankara rather than Tehran. A peace agreement between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels would only deepen Iran's unease over Turkey's growing regional influence.“Turkey is about to end the PKK through its policies both domestically and regionally, and this is causing a kind of panic on the Iranian side,” observes Bilgehan Alagöz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University. “Iran sees this as a threat to its regional influence and a development that could empower Turkey,” Alagöz added.Nevertheless, Syria's Kurdish-led militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which maintains close ties with the PKK, has stated it is not bound by Öcalan's call to disarm. Although it has agreed in principle with Syria's new rulers to merge its forces, the precise terms of the arrangement remain unclear.Syria's new leadershipTensions also persist between the SDF and Syria's new leadership. The Kurdish-led militia continues to demand greater autonomy within Syria — a position opposed by Damascus's new rulers and their backers in Ankara. Turkey suspects Tehran of favouring a decentralised and weakened Syria — a goal analysts say is also shared by Israel.“The Middle East makes strange bedfellows,” notes Gallia Lindenstrauss, a foreign policy expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Sometimes, these things unfold in ways that are surprising.”Lindenstrauss also questions the Israeli government's zero-sum view of Turkey, which it sees as both a rival and a supporter of Syria's new rulers.He told RFI: “I'm not sure this idea of a decentralised Syria is fully thought through by Jerusalem. I know there's a lot of intellectual energy devoted to this line of thinking. But clearly, we don't want Iran to use Syria to its advantage. A centralised regime might be a better scenario for Syria. But that comes at a cost — and the cost is increased Turkish involvement and influence in Syria. So, there is a dilemma.”Last month, Fidan angered Tehran by warning that Iran could face instability if it attempted to destabilise Syria — a statement some analysts interpret as a veiled reference to Iran's sizeable and often restive Turkish minority, which is viewed with suspicion by Tehran.Ünlühisarcıklı believes Ankara sees itself as gaining the upper hand in its regional rivalry with Tehran, yet remains cautious about the risks posed by a potential US-Iran conflict.Turkey's Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunity“Turkey has outcompeted Iran, and it has no objection to Iran being further weakened,” Ünlühisarcıklı remarked.“But Turkey would have a serious problem with Iran being targeted militarily, as that would destabilise the entire region.”Avoiding such a conflict now offers common ground for Turkey and its long-time regional competitor Iran — a relationship often described as a delicate balance between cooperation and competition.Analysts expect this balancing act to be severely tested in the months to come.
The Turkish opposition has vowed to fight "until the end" against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with the leader of the CHP party accusing the head of state of staging a "coup" in arresting Istanbul's opposition mayor. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel has demanded a snap election that he said would serve as the "biggest no confidence vote in history" against President Erdogan, following the arrest last month of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, seen as the president's chief challenger."Erdogan carried out a coup against his own rival. He carried out a coup against the next president of Turkey, our presidential candidate. That is why our resistance and struggle against this will continue until the end," Ozel told French news agency AFP.Imamoglu's arrest sparked the biggest opposition protests to grip Turkey since 2013, although the demonstrations have dipped in intensity over the past 10 days amid holidays marking the end of Ramadan.To maintain momentum, the CHP is now calling for rallies in an Istanbul district every Wednesday and a rally on Sunday in the key port city of Samsun, on the Black Sea.Polls indicate that Imamoglu could end Erdogan's almost quarter-century grip on power if he was allowed to stand in Turkey's 2028 presidential electionThe Istanbul mayor was arrested on 19 March on charges related to corruption and organised crime. He appeared in court on Friday on charges of insulting a public official, with prosecutors calling for a seven-year jail sentence.Imamoglu denies all charges and claims the accusations are politically motivated.EU urges Turkey to 'uphold democratic values' after mass arrests at protestsCalls for boycottThe CHP is now also aiming to broaden the protest campaign by boycotting businesses linked to Erdogan and his supporters."Ozel realised that just inviting people to the streets is not going to help much," political consultant Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners told RFI."There is a large segment of Turkish society that, either because they fear the police or [for cultural reasons], are not used to protesting on the streets. Now, this boycott campaign allows everyone, whether they are CHP voters or not, to show their support by simply not buying anything."Social media videos urging the boycott identify the companies linked to Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK), from supermarkets to coffee shop chains.The British rock group Muse cancelled their upcoming concerts in Turkey following calls by the opposition, as the promoter was linked to Erdogan's AK Party. "The boycott is the right decision, it is a long overdue decision that needs to be made," said one tradesman, who didn't want to be identified. "If the government continues in this way, the country will get worse. The boycott initiated by Ozgur Ozel is very relevant. We are participating as tradesmen. The shopkeepers in the area all participate."Erdoğan tightens his grip with crackdown on protests while Europe stays silentStudents releasedHowever, others have questioned the tactics. "I am totally against the boycott call," one local said. "It is our national income, and there is no point in boycotting some to cover up the theft of others. Let them [the opposition] get elected, let them take over the country, that's what I am saying."Erdogan is threatening to punish those behind the boycott campaign. "Every kind of sabotage aimed at Turkey's economy and the nation's prosperity and peace will be held accountable in court," he told parliament.Police have begun arresting people in dawn raids for social media posts supporting the boycott.Almost 2,000 people, including many students, have been arrested in the crackdown on the protests in support of Imamoglu. However, an Istanbul court on Friday ordered the release of 59 young demonstrators, on top of 107 who were detained earlier.The court explained its decision by pointing to the "risk of interruption of their studies" for the students accused.
The European Union faces a formidable challenge in bolstering its defence capabilities without dependence on the United States, following President Donald Trump's persistent calls for Europe to shoulder a greater share of the burden. Meanwhile, transatlantic trade relations are deteriorating, as Trump imposes punitive tariffs that could potentially impact arms trade between the US and the EU. With plans to raise defence spending to €800 billion, the European Union must navigate the political pressure from the United States to continue procuring American-made weaponry, while addressing the practical necessity of cultivating its own defence industrial base.Currently, many European weapon systems rely on US components, making it difficult for the EU to become entirely self-sufficient in defense production. The Eurofighter and Gripen aircraft, for example, contain a significant American components, and strategic air defense systems like the Patriot are hard to replace.The EU's goal of creating a common defense union is politically challenging, but necessary for enhancing collective security.This involves developing joint command and control structures, similar to those of the US and Russia, which would significantly improve European military effectiveness.However, achieving full independence from US military support may prove to be a daunting task.RFI's Jan van der Made spoke with Alexandr Burilkov of Leuphana University in Lüneburg, Germany, who co-authored a report on the subject, Defending Europe without the US, published by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Turkey's opposition is accusing Europe of abandoning those fighting to keep democracy alive, as European leaders and the EU offer only muted criticism over the jailing of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the crackdown on protests. Rubber bullets, water cannons, and mass arrests continue to meet demonstrators protesting the detention of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's main rival. Yet, the EU is treading cautiously. "The arrest of the mayor is deeply concerning. As a member of the Council of Europe and an EU candidate country, Turkey must uphold democratic rights," said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.EU and UK reactionsBritish Prime Minister Keir Starmer, once a human rights lawyer, has so far remained silent on İmamoğlu's arrest. Only one of his aides issued a muted statement, saying the UK expects Turkey's judicial process to be respected.Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrestÖzgür Özel, leader of the main opposition CHP party, has lashed out at Europe's response. "Those who champion democracy at home but empower autocracy in Turkey — those who say, ‘We'll give the money so the Syrians are taken care of' — will know this government will change next year. When all is said and done, Turkey will remember the silence of its friends more than the voices of its enemies," Özel told supporters.The UK and EU rely on Turkey to act as Europe's gatekeeper, hosting millions of Syrian refugees in exchange for billions of euros in aid.Erdoğan's two-decade grip on power, having repeatedly defeated the opposition at the polls, has left European leaders feeling powerless. "The consensus is that this is something we cannot change, something we cannot influence from outside. Europeans have mistakenly concluded they have no leverage over Turkey," says Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.But Aydıntaşbaş insists Europe still has powerful tools at its disposal. "Of course, Europeans have had — and still have — enormous leverage, particularly economic leverage, especially through Turkey's EU accession process. But they simply don't want to push."Erdoğan's importance to Europe is only growing, as European leaders scramble to strengthen their defences against a resurgent Russia and an unreliable United States. With NATO's second-largest army, Turkey is increasingly seen as critical to Europe's security."Turkey is more important than ever in this era of brutal geopolitical realities; it stands between two wars. President Erdoğan has been masterful in playing the West off against Russia, and the US against Europe. He has become an indispensable middle power — not exactly an ally, but certainly not someone you want to cross," Aydıntaşbaş explains."Europeans are interested in bringing Turkey closer into European defence plans," she adds. "The Americans, too, see Turkey as essential to stabilising Syria. Western countries simply don't want to risk pushing Erdoğan away."Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayor EU and TurkeyEven before Europe's lukewarm reaction to İmamoğlu's arrest and the crackdown on protests, Turkey's opposition had accused the EU of abandoning Turkish democracy. Local human rights groups, still battling to defend civil liberties, claim the EU has quietly been cutting its funding since Erdoğan's election victory in 2023."There's a visible hesitation among international donors when it comes to Turkey," warns Sinan Gökçen, Turkey representative for the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders."When it comes to bilateral or intergovernmental funding, the refugee deal with the EU remains central to Turkey's relations with Europe. No one wants to upset that. In fact, no one wants to risk provoking Turkey," Gökçen adds.Turkey's opposition, however, shows no such restraint. As many as two million people took to the streets of Istanbul last Saturday to protest against Erdoğan and İmamoğlu's arrest. CHP Deputy Chairman İlhan Uzgel says that with Turkish democracy at breaking point, he is dismayed by Europe's silence — but remains confident in the people's resolve."We are losing our democracy. Every other day, a businessperson, a trade unionist, a student, a journalist, a doctor, an ordinary citizen, or an academic is taken into custody. We are facing our authoritarian leader alone," Uzgel declared.The CHP has vowed to continue mobilising mass protests across the country, stepping up its resistance. With Erdoğan accusing the opposition of treason and rebellion, further mass arrests are expected, along with legal moves against the party itself. Whatever the outcome of the battle for Turkey's democracy, Europe's leaders seem destined to be remembered as bystanders.
The conviction of far-right figure Marine Le Pen has thrown her National Rally (RN) party into turmoil. She was sentenced to four years in prison and banned from public office for five years, a ruling that could stop her from running in the 2027 presidential election. Once deeply controversial, the RN has gained popularity in recent years as it seeks to distance itself from its troubled past. The National Rally, formerly the National Front, has a complex history, having transformed from a party once openly sympathetic to Nazi ideologies into one that now seeks broader legitimacy, including forging alliances with pro-Israeli groups – a strategic shift aimed at expanding its appeal.This evolution mirrors wider trends among far-right movements across Europe and the United States, where such groups have sought to rebrand themselves in pursuit of mainstream acceptance.RFI's Jan van der Made speaks with Nafeez Ahmed, author of Alt Reich, which explores the dark origins of many contemporary far-right movements.
The lawyer of Istanbul's jailed mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has now been arrested, alongside several more journalists, following the country's biggest demonstrations against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2013. Ten days after the arrest and subsequent jailing of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, thousands of demonstrators have continued to protest on the streets of Istanbul, despite a ban.A popular opposition politician, Imamoglu is seen as the only person capable of defeating Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the polls in 2028.Imamoglu was arrested last Wednesday on corruption and terror charges and remains in jail.Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrestDespite this, his party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), declared him its presidential candidate in absentia, after holding a symbolic nationwide vote last weekend that saw almost 15 million people cast a ballot.On Thursday night, police raided more homes, with Imamoglu saying his lawyer Mehmet Pehlivan had been "detained on fictitious grounds," in a post published via the mayor's legal team on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).It was not immediately clear why Pehlivan had been detained, but opposition broadcaster Halk TV said his arrest was linked to allegations of "laundering assets originating from a crime".Young protestersThe Istanbul Bar Association meanwhile said 20 minors had been arrested between 22 and 25 March on charges of violating a ban on protests.Of these 20, 13 had been released but seven were still in custody, it said in a statement posted on X, adding that it was "closely following" the matter.Many of those demonstrating have only ever known Erdogan as Turkey's leader."We have the right to vote, we have the right to choose whoever we want to rule us. But he [Erdogan] is taking that right from us," one protestor, who wished to remain anonymous, told RFI.Turkey's Erdogan wins election, extending rule to third decadeAnother demonstrator who also did not want to give his name added: "We want democracy, we want the people to choose who is elected. We want the free will to choose who we want without them being imprisoned."The unrest is at a level unseen since the Gezi protests of 2013, which almost saw Erdogan ousted. Demonstrations have spread across the country since last week, even reaching the president's traditional strongholds.Students have launched a nationwide boycott of universities, and opposition leaders are warning of a new escalation in their protests.Strategy could backfireTurkey expert Gonul Tol of the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank told RFI that Erdogan's strategy may backfire this time."In 2019, when Ekrem Imamoglu won the municipal elections in Istanbul, Erdogan didn't accept the result and called for a rerun," she explained."While in the first round, Imamoglu won by a razor-thin majority, in the second round people got so angry and frustrated that they handed Imamoglu a bigger win. So this could easily backfire, and now that there are hundreds of thousands of people on the streets, this could turn into something much bigger than Erdogan had expected."However, Erdogan has doubled down, warning that protestors will pay a heavy price."Those who are involved in treason and who set up an ambush for the brotherhood of the nation will sooner or later be held accountable to justice," he told his AK Party parliamentary deputies on Wednesday.Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activistsThe president has also taken aim at the media. Turkish authorities on Wednesday detained BBC journalist Mark Lowen, then deported him on the grounds he posed "a threat to public order," the UK broadcaster said.Also on Thursday, Turkey's government-controlled regulatory authority slapped the independent Sozcu TV station with a 10-day broadcast ban and a fine, pointing to alleged violations linked to incitement to "hatred and hostility".Police also detained two Turkish journalists in dawn raids on their homes, the Turkish Journalists' Union (TGS) said on X.Deputy chairman of the CHP party Ilhan Uzgel says early elections are the only way to put an end to the crisis.He warned: "It's damaging the image of the country, it's damaging the economy, it's damaging the social structure of the society in Turkey. The judiciary is the least trusted institution in Turkey; it can't continue like this."
Anger is mounting over the arrest of Istanbul's popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption and terror charges. Seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, Imamoglu was arrested on Wednesday, just days before he was due to be named as the candidate for the main opposition CHP party in the 2028 presidential election. Imamoglu's opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has denounced the detention as a "coup" and vowed to keep up the demonstrations, which by Thursday night had spread to at least 32 of Turkey's 81 provinces, according to a count by French news agency AFP.Opposition leader Ozgur Ozel told supporters: "This is not the time for politics in rooms and halls but on the streets and squares."Imamoglu was arrested in a pre-dawn raid on Wednesday, on corruption and terror charges, ahead of his expected election on Sunday as the CHP's candidate for Turkey's presidential elections in 2028. According to political analyst Mesut Yegen of the Reform Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank, Imamoglu is more than just a mayor. "Imamoglu is now [Erdogan's] main rival, it's obvious," Yegen told RFI, adding that as Istanbul's mayor he has a unique opportunity. "Istanbul is important for the resources it has, it's the biggest municipality. Here in Turkey, municipalities are important to finance politics."Popular appealOpinion polls give Imamoglu – who defeated Erdogan's AK party three times in mayoral elections – a double-digit lead over Erdogan. This is because he is widely seen as reaching beyond his secular political base to religious voters, nationalists and Turkey's large Kurdish constituency. Some observers see Imamoglu's arrest as a sign that Erdogan is reluctant to confront the mayor in presidential elections."If Erdogan could beat him politically with regular rules, he would love that. But he cannot be doing that. Erdogan wants to take him out of the political sphere one way or the other," explained Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's independent Politikyol news outlet. "The competitive side has started to be too much of a headache for the presidency, so they want to get rid of the competitive side and emphasise the authoritarian side, with Imamoglu as the prime target," she said.Erdogan's local election defeat reshapes Turkey's political landscapeTurkey's justice minister Yilmaz Tunc has angrily rejected claims that Imamoglu's prosecution is politically motivated, insisting the judiciary is independent. Erdogan sought to play down the protests, saying on Friday that Turkey "will not surrender to street terror" and discouraged any further demonstrations."We, as a party and individuals, have no time to waste on the opposition's theatrics. We are focused on our work and our goals," Erdogan declared. Imamoglu's arrest comes as Turkey's crisis-ridden economy took another hit, with significant falls on the stock market and its currency falling by more than 10 percent as international investors fled the Turkish market.'Out of sight, out of mind'However, Oney suggests Erdogan will be banking on a combination of fear and apathy eventually leading to the protests dissipating, and that Imamoglu, like other imprisoned political figures in Turkey, will be marginalised."The government is counting on the possibility that once Imamoglu is out of sight, [he will be] out of mind," she predicts. "So he will just be forgotten, and the presidency will have its way [more easily]."Turkey is no stranger to jailing politicians, even leaders of political parties. However, Oney warns that with Imamoglu facing a long prison sentence if convicted, the significance of such a move should not be underestimated."It's going to be extremely detrimental to Turkish democracy. You have jailing of politicians, but someone on the scale of Imamoglu will be unique," she said.Despite Imamoglu's detention, the CHP vowed it would press ahead with its primary on Sunday, at which it would formally nominate him as its candidate for the 2028 race.The party said it would open the process to anyone who wanted to vote, not just party members, saying: "Come to the ballot box and say 'no' to the coup attempt!"Observers said the government could seek to block the primary, to prevent a further show of support for Imamgolu.
The overthrow of Bachar al-Assad's regime in Syria and its replacement by new rulers with close ties to Turkey are ringing alarm bells in Israel. RFI's correspondent reports on how Ankara and Jerusalem's deepening rivalry could impact Syria's future. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's already strong support for the militant group Hamas has strained relations with Israel.Now, Syria is threatening to become a focal point of tension.Earlier this month, Erdogan issued a widely interpreted warning to Israel to stop undermining Damascus's new rulers."Those who hope to benefit from the instability of Syria by provoking ethnic and religious divisions should know that they will not achieve their goals," Erdogan declared at a meeting of ambassadors.Erdogan's speech followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's offer to support Syria's Druze and Kurdish minorities."We will not allow our enemies in Lebanon and Syria to grow," Netanyahu told the Knesset. "At the same time, we extend our hand to our Druze and Kurdish allies."Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv told RFI that Israel view is not very optimistic about the future of Syria, and sees it as a potential threat to Israel.Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda"The fact that Turkey will be dominant in Syria is also dangerous for Israel," adds Lindenstrauss."Turkey could build bases inside Syria and establish air defences there. This would limit Israel's room for manoeuvre and could pose a threat. Israel wants to avoid this and should therefore adopt a hard-line approach."Deepening rivalryAnkara and Jerusalem's deepening rivalry is shaping conflicting visions for the future of Syria.Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics' Contemporary Turkish Studies Department, "Turkey wants to see a secure and stabilised unitary state under Ahmad al-Sharaa's transitional government."Israel, on the other hand, wants to see a weak and fragmented Syria. Its main concern has always been securing its northern border," added Nasi.Israeli forces are occupying Syrian territory along their shared northern border, which is home to much of Syria's Druze minority.However, Israeli hopes of drawing Syria's Kurds away from Damascus suffered a setback when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls part of Syria, signed an agreement on 10 March to merge part of its operations with Syria's transitional government.Mutual distrustAs Damascus consolidates control, analysts suggest Israel will be increasingly concerned about Turkey expanding its military presence inside Syria."If Turkey establishes military posts in the south of the country, close to the Israeli border, presumably with the permission of the government in Damascus," warns Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, "then the two sides would be in close proximity, with military forces on both sides. That, I believe, would create a highly dangerous, volatile, and incendiary situation."As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies aheadAnalysts warn that if Turkey extends its military presence to include airbases, this could threaten Israel's currently unchallenged access to Syrian airspace.However, some observers believe that opportunities for cooperation may still exist."Things can change," says Israeli security analyst Lindenstrauss."Israel and Turkey could resume cooperation and potentially contribute to Syria's reconstruction in a way that does not threaten Israel. However, this does not appear to be the path the Erdogan regime is currently taking, nor does it seem to be the direction chosen by Netanyahu and his government."With Erdogan and Netanyahu making little secret of their mutual distrust, analysts warn that their rivalry is likely to spill over into Syria, further complicating the country's transition from the Assad regime.
France's recent military withdrawals from the Sahel and West Africa are leaving a void that Turkey is keen to exploit, experts told RFI. But while Turkey is profiting from its position as a NATO member and experienced arms exporter, it needs to be careful not to overstretch itself in terms of resources on the continent. France's handover of its sole base in Côte d'Ivoire and a pullout in January from Chad are part of a broader reduction of the French army's presence across the region."What we are living in now is a transformational age," international relations expert Federico Donelli of Trieste University told RFI."Many traditional players like France, for example, in that region of Africa are downgrading their own engagement in this area. Not because they have some economic or political constraint but because the local states want them to leave the region."Donelli believes the door is now open to new players, such as Turkey."Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invested heavily in Africa, quadrupling Turkey's embassy presence across Africa in the past two decades. Erdogan, a devout Muslim, also plays the Muslim card and reminds his African audiences of France's colonial past," he says.Insurgent threatsHowever, Eylem Tepeciklioglu of Ankara's Social Sciences University believes the breakthrough for Turkey came with the French military failing to deal with insurgent threats in the Sahel and broader West Africa."The image of France is in tatters because the regional countries criticise French missions for failing to help them fight with terrorist groups and for bringing more harm than good," explains Tepecikoglu.Tepeciklioglu claims Erdogan's Africa policy caught the regional zeitgeist."Together with rising anti-French sentiments, this brings opportunities for other countries to step in, and Turkey has several defense or mutual cooperation agreements with Sahelian countries. And according to some sources, Turkey has deployed military advisers and drones at the Abéché base in Chad," adds Tepeciklioglu.Macron's Africa 'reset' stumbles as leaders call out colonial overtonesDeepening Senegalese and Turkish military ties was on the agenda at an Istanbul meeting in October. Shortly after the high-profile gathering, Senegal called for the removal of French forces.Turkey's vibrant arms industry selling battle-proven weapons invariably cheaper than its Western competitors, as well as having few, if any, restrictions on use, is complementing Ankara's traditional diplomatic tools in its bid to broaden its influence."Turkish defense products are now very popular in African markets. So this also applies to Sahelian countries," explains Tepeciklioglu, "For example, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad acquired Turkish drones. While other Sahelian countries acquired other Turkish military equipment."OverstretchTurkey remains a relatively small player against the giants of Russia, China, and the United States in the battle to secure economic and diplomatic influence. But the growing competition between Western and Eastern powers could be to Turkey's advantage, says Donelli. "So, for an African state, establishing a security agreement with Turkey is less costly in political terms in comparison with relations with Russia because that doesn't mean 'I break with the West, but I'm doing something with a NATO member'. This is really important," adds Donelli.Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in AfricaBut Turkey's rapid expansion into Africa does not come cheap what with diplomatic representations across the continent, growing military presence, such as army and naval bases in Libya and Africa."Turkey is expanding too much. This is called overstretch in diplomatic language," warns International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara Middle East Technical University."So, Turkey's military and economic capabilities are actually limited. The more you expand, the more you have to pay," he says, adding that such a strategy would not be sustainable.With the Turkish economy mired in crisis and Erdogan looking to improve ties with Europe, including France, analysts say Turkey could be ready for cooperation rather than rivalry in Africa.
With war at Europe's doorstep and US support uncertain, the continent must focus on military readiness and strategic autonomy. RFI's David Coffey speaks with Serge Stroobants of the Institute for Economics and Peace on whether Europe can defend itself and at what cost. The sharp decline in US-Ukraine relations has raised doubts about American support for Europe, as the continent assesses its ability to defend itself against a threat from Russia.Donald Trump's decision to cut military aid to Ukraine this week signals a shift in US foreign policy and raises questions about America's commitment to Europe's security.From shortages in the number of tanks and the availablity of artillery, to the debate over a unified European army, leaders must decide whether to bolster national forces or embrace deeper military cooperation.As France and the UK guard their nuclear arsenals and Russia tests Europe's resolve, can the EU build a credible deterrent, or will it continue to rely on America?The Director for Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa at the Institute for Economics and Peace, Serge Stroobants, explained to RFI that Europe lacks the capacity to react quickly to security threats, with defence procurement bogged down by fragmentation and slow production timelines.As early as 2016, Germany's defence industry acknowledged that no major projects would reach completion for at least six to eight years. Today the projections are even worse.“If you want to invest quickly in the military – into defence, into new equipment and weapon systems – these need to be bought off the shelf outside of Europe," with the US, Turkey, and South Korea as key suppliers, he says.Defence neglectedBeyond military upgrades, Europe faces a broader challenge as its entire economic and state system must adapt to meet modern security demands.EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's recent pledge to cut red tape for defence procurement is a step in the right direction, Stroobants says, but it comes too late and under pressure from events rather than forward planning.“The problem is – as is so often with the EU – we are doing this under the pressure of the events. We're not doing this in advance. We're not planning. We don't have a strategy."Despite being a continent of 500 million people – and the world's third-largest economic and military power – Europe remains unable to ensure its own security due to a longstanding lack of strategic foresight and neglect of defence spending.As it stands, a unified EU defence force remains a challenge due to Europe's struggle to coordinate military policy alongside foreign diplomacy and development.Stroobants explains that peace and security are based on three pillars – diplomacy, development and defence. “When you look at the EU, this has been done for almost 75 years, but if you are not able to integrate foreign policy and foreign development...and have common influence outside of European borders? Well, it doesn't really help to only unify just one of those three pillars," he said.While the EU has made progress in development and soft power, true strategic influence for the bloc requires the full integration of defence and diplomacy to establish an undivided foreign policy and a stronger global presence.'Europe must do the heavy lifting' in Ukraine, needs 'US backing': UK's StarmerReshaping Europe“For 30 to 35 years now, we have been divesting from defence, but it's much more than defence. It's the entire society that has lived with the idea that we would live eternally in peace," Stroobants says.He argues that to independently deter Russian aggression, European nations must go beyond bolstering their military capabilities – they need to rethink their entire strategic approach.“If you want to be ready, you need to invest in defence...but you also need to reshape your society and your infrastructure,” he adds.He also points out that with France and the UK as Europe's only nuclear powers, their cooperation on a nuclear umbrella remains uncertain. France insists its deterrent will stay national but may engage allies without losing autonomy. Both nations favour a "coalition of the willing" over an EU or NATO-led approach, prioritising national security.'Deterrance and power'While Moscow takes America's military threat seriously and views European states as weak, Stroobants added, Europe must take concrete steps to change this perception and restore credible deterrence.European security hinges on two key concepts: deterrence and power. Deterrence relies not just on military capability but on the will to use it – because, as Stroobants puts it, “you can have 20,000 nuclear warheads, but if you have nobody who is strong enough to use them, they are not going to be a deterrent."And that's exactly what's happening with the EU at the moment”.True power – accroding to Stroobants – is essentially a combination of military, economic, and diplomatic strength,comboined with a clear strategy and the political will to act.Britain holds back as France pushes for truce between Russia and UkraineWhile Europe possesses significant resources, it lacks a unified vision on how to confront Putin's Russia and define its role in an increasingly aggressive global order – leaving it strategically adrift and unable to deter adversaries effectively.The absence of key nations – including the Baltic states – from a recent high-level security meeting in London only underscores the challenge of consolidating a unified European deterrent.“After having lived in the military for 30 years, in Europe and under the NATO umbrella, not incorporating all the allies or member states [at high level meetings] is really strange," he said.For Stroobants, Europe now is facing the disintegration of alliances that have taken over seven decades to build.
The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, has called for an end to the fight against the Turkish state. This may open the door to ending four decades of conflict that has claimed over 40,000 lives. RFI's correspondent in Istanbul looks at the implications for the wider region. In a packed conference hall in an Istanbul hotel, Ahmet Turk, a leading member of Turkey's pro-Kurdish Dem Party, read a statement by Ocalan calling for the organization, which he founded, to disarm and dissolve itself, declaring an end to the decades-long conflict. The PKK, designated as a terrorist organization by the European Union and the United States, has been fighting for autonomy and Kurdish minority rights in Turkey since the 1980s.Ocalan, imprisoned in a Turkish jail since 1999, made his disarmament call after the PKK suffered significant military setbacks in recent years. "The PKK is almost finished within the borders of Turkey," explained Mesut Yegen, a political scientist at the Istanbul-based Reform Institute.However, Yegen claims with the PKK now primarily based in northern Iraq on Turkey's frontier, while its affiliate in Syria, the SDF, controls a large swathe of territory bordering Turkey all sides still have an interest in peace."We know that the Turkish state needs a peace process because it's worried about the future development in the region in Syria and Iraq," added Yegen.Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in Iraq Cautious responseThe Turkish government gave a cautious response to Ocalan's statement, saying it's waiting for the PKK to disarm. The PKK leadership based in Iraq, ahead of Ocalan's statement, declared it is looking for gestures from the government before any disarmament."The peace process in Turkey will largely depend on what emerges, what kind of a deal emerges inside Syria," Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting senior fellow with the Brookings Institution in Washington, said."So we're also seeing Turkey be more cautious. That doesn't mean, you know, Turkey won't reverse course if it feels there's no room to go with Syrian Kurds or inside the peace process in Turkey."Turkish armed forces are massed on the Syrian border with Ankara, demanding the SDF merge with the Syrian army under the control of Syria's new rulers, with whom the Turkish government has close ties.For now, the SDF leader Mazloum Abdi declared his force is not bound by Ocalan's disarmament call while demanding Ankara end its ongoing attacks on its troops.Turkey's Saturday Mothers keep up vigil for lost relativesScepticismAnalyst Mesut Yegen adds that ending the PKK conflict will come at a price for Ankara. "They're (PKK) expecting that in return for that, the state promises that at least a kind of autonomy or status for Syrian Kurds is going to be recognised by the Syrian regime, the new regime, and that the Turkish state also supports this kind of solution."In addition to this, of course, the expectation is that some reforms will be implemented in Turkey with regards to the Kurdish question."Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has distanced himself from the current efforts to end the conflict, other than saying a historic opportunity exists for Kurds and Turks to live in peace but offering no concessions.For months, a crackdown on Turkey's legal Kurdish movement continues, with the removal of elected mayors and arrests of journalists and human rights activists. Trial of alleged PKK figures accused of financing terror begins in FranceTurkish commentator on Turkey's Politikyol news portal, Sezin Oney, warns unless the causes of the conflict are addressed, there's little hope of a permanent peace. "Probably, any disarmament or any disbanding of PKK would be a gimmick," warns Oney."It wouldn't be a real actual disbanding, and it might just appear in a year under a different name. Because they would still have the pretext to argue that armed struggle is necessary because the Kurds in Turkey don't have their democratic rights."With previous peace efforts failing, opinion polls indicate that the public remains sceptical of this latest effort. But for 75-year-old Ocalan, analysts warn it may be his last chance of any hope of freedom.
The future of American troops in Syria is in the spotlight, as Turkey and Israel push competing agendas with the Trump administration regarding the role of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in countering the Islamic State group. The United States' military presence in Syria has been called into question, as President Donald Trump faces conflicting pressure from Turkey and Israel over the 2000-strong US force supporting a Syrian Kurdish-led coalition.The US force is supporting an Arab-Kurdish coalition of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in its war against the Islamic State (IS) group.Thousands of IS militants are currently being held in SDF prisons, but the US military presence now hangs in the balance. Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi, of the Washington-based research institute, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies says Trump is in a dilemma because he ran on this promise of putting America first. "Getting out of foreign entanglements, not committing US troops and US money to parts of the world in which the US doesn't have any interest," he tells RFI.However, Ciddi warns a quick withdrawal would not be without risk: "The dilemma for Trump is that in a theatre such as Syria, if he were to pull back 2,000 troops, then you've got this major security threat."Turkey's Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunityTurkey labels SDF 'insurgents'However, a US pullout would be welcomed by its NATO ally Turkey. Ankara strongly opposes Washington's military support for the SDF, which it accuses of being linked to Kurdish insurgents fighting Turkey.International relations expert Bilgehan Alagoz, of Istanbul's Marmara University, maintains the US deployment has poisoned relations between the two allies, but says a withdrawal by Trump would offer a reset in ties."I believe that there is going to be a new ground between Turkey and the United States," Alagoz said. "And Turkey will guarantee the safety of US soldiers and a successful withdrawal from Syria. So it is all going to be a kind of new negotiation between Turkey and the United States."Until now, US soldiers in Syria have prevented the Turkish military – massed on the Syrian border – from overwhelming the SDF, but time may be running out for the Kurdish-led forces."Assuming that the US withdraws at one point from Syria ... this will mean the end of the diplomatic umbrella for the SDF that the US was able to put over them," according to Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope independent news outlet.Selcen warns that the SDF has only a small window to secure its future: "Time is of the essence for the SDF to get their act together and join forces with Damascus... to fold their forces into the Syrian armed forces, which would also satisfy Ankara's security concerns."Turkey steps up military action against Kurds in Syria as power shiftsIsrael sees SDF as key against ISTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has close ties with Syria's new leaders, and is demanding that the SDF disband or face a Turkish assault.However, the Israeli government is voicing support for American backing for the SDF, given the risk posed by the Islamic State."We know that the SDF controls prisons in which there are around 10,000 Islamic State fighters and families," explains Gallia Lindenstrauss, a foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv."Nobody wants to see the resurgence of the Islamic State. And I think in this respect, the US understands this is a small number of troops [and] they are effective. So why pull them out?"Paris hosts global conference on shaping Syria's futureLindenstrauss told RFI: "Israel has voiced that it does want to see the West continue supporting the Kurdish presence in northeast Syria, so there will be Israeli diplomatic efforts to keep the [US] troops there."Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Saar, recently underlined the importance of the Syrian Kurds as an ally to Israel – a message that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to have delivered to Trump during his visit to Washington this month, Ciddi believes."We've seen an increase in moves by the Israeli government to provide more formal and government support for non-state actors, such as the Syrian Kurds," he said. "Because they understand that hitherto they've been entirely reliable in thwarting some of the major security concerns that the Israelis hold close to their heart."
In a sign of warming Turkish relations, European leaders have started lifting their opposition to key military hardware sales, to the alarm of Turkey's rival Greece. The move comes as Turkey, Nato's second-largest army, is viewed as potentially playing a key role in Europe's security goals as doubts grow over Washington's commitment to the continent's defence. Greece is reacting furiously against France over the potential sale of the Meteor air-to-air missile to Turkey. The missile sale and the Turkish bid to procure Europe's Eurofighter threatened to erase Greece's military edge over its rival Turkey.Despite France and Greece recently signing a defence pact, French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly rejected Greek calls to block the missile sale, which is made by a European consortium headquartered in France."I think that France's decision is related to what is going on in Ukraine," claims international relations Professor Federico Donelli of Trieste University in Italy"Turkey and European countries have the same geo-strategic interest," adds Donelli. "If you ask Turkey and Turkish policymakers, for them, the main threat to the security and stability of the country and integrity of the country remain Russia. So I think that on this point that France, Turkey, even other European countries converge".Turkey's Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunityForceWith more than 800,000 personnel in its armed forces, including reservists, Turkey is Nato's second-largest army.The importance of the Turkish military to European security could be ascending with the looming threat of Russia and Washington demanding Europe take more responsibility for its defence."We think it's an important part of being in a shared alliance together that the Europeans step up while America focuses on areas of the world that are in great danger," warned United States Vice President JD Vance at this month's Munich Security Conference.Turkey's poor human rights record has strained relations with the European Union, along with the authoritarian reputation of the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But such concerns are being trumped by security fears."After the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Turkey is starting to be perceived by Nato members as an important ally," explains Donelli."Maybe it's not the best ally ever because we know that Turkey's not an easy partner, but at the same time it is the most useful one". Turkish President Erdogan ready to rekindle friendship with TrumpThreatEuropean leaders met this month to discuss Ukraine and the security threat facing the continent. With the Turkish army dwarfing its European counterparts, Ankara says it can play a key role in Europe's defence."European allies understood that without Turkey, we cannot continue the defence of the European continent and Euro-Atlantic security," claims Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin. "And is Turkey ready to support this European security and defence capability? The answer is: 'Yes.'"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, too, is eyeing Turkey's military. During his visit to Turkey on Tuesday, Zelenskyy underlined the importance of Ukraine's allies deploying soldiers to guarantee any peace agreement reached with Russia."Two issues that are very, very important: a strong Ukrainian army, and the deployment in Ukraine from other armies like from Europe, and the United States, our partners," declared Zelensky at a joint press conference with Erdogan.Zelensky said he had discussed the issue with Erdogan but that it was too early to reveal the outcome of the talks. While Erdogan has close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart, the Turkish leader has also maintained good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.Casin insists if all agree, Ankara is well placed to assist. "Turkey, maybe we send our troops to peacekeeping operations. Why do I say it like this? Turkey joined many UN peacekeeping operations, and the Turkish army is very powerful," said Casin.The Turkish military has participated in some of the world's most difficult UN peacekeeping operations, from Kosovo to Somalia.However, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov ruled out any Nato peacekeepers in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the importance of Turkey's large and capable army could still play a key role in Europe as European concerns grow over the reliability of their American ally.
Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Ankara on Tuesday, on the heels of a visit to Saudi Arabia – a move that is being interpreted as a balancing act by Sharaa between the two regional powers, amidst growing competition for influence over Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not hold back on the hospitality when hosting Sharaa, sending one of his presidential jets to fly the new Syrian leader and his large delegation to Ankara.The Turkish president was keen too to underline the significance of the meeting. "I see today's historic visit as the beginning of a period of permanent friendship and cooperation between our countries," he declared in a joint press statement with the Syrian leader.Erdogan also announced that Turkey's institutions and ministries are coordinating efforts to help with Syria's reconstruction.Sharaa was quick to praise this assistance, saying: "The significant support is still tangible through Turkey's ongoing efforts to ensure the success of the current leadership in Syria politically and economically, ensuring the independence, unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria."Macron calls Syrian leader to discuss transition, terrorism, sanctionsTies with TurkeyThe new Syrian leader developed close ties with Ankara during the years of fighting the Assad regime. The Turkish military protected the Idlib enclave where Sharaa was based, while Turkey offered refuge to many Syrians fleeing the fighting. "Ankara will definitely be viewed as a positive outside contributor by these new Syrian rulers because of the fact that we here in Turkey are hosting over 5 million Syrians and that, also, Turkey helped protect Idlib," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region, now an analyst for the independent Turkish news outlet Medyascope.However, Selcen cautions that Ankara should not overestimate its influence when it comes to dictating policy for its Syrian neighbour. "The centre of this Syrian endeavour, of this restructuring or this fresh beginning, will be Damascus. It will not be Doha, it will not be Ankara, it will not be Geneva," he said.Erdogan hails Syria leader's 'strong commitment' to fighting terror'Islamic background'While the Syrian and Turkish leaders meeting in Ankara lasted more than three hours and was followed by an exchange of warm words, no concrete announcements came out of it – only vague commitments to cooperation in security and development.And despite Ankara's strong support for the Syrian rebels, Syria's new leader chose to make his first overseas visit as president to Saudi Arabia, one of Turkey's main rivals in the region.International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University says the Syrian president is sending a message to Ankara."He [Sharaa] is an Arab nationalist with an Islamic background, not a Turkish one," said Bagci. "And that's why many people expect that in the long run, there will be different opinions on certain regional issues [with Turkey]."For several years, Saudi and Turkish leaders have been engaged in a competition for influence among Sunni Arab countries. But Ankara is at a disadvantage, with its economy in crisis. Unlike oil-rich Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, it has little cash to offer to pay for Syria's rebuilding.'Realpolitik'Sharaa also appears ready to broaden his horizons further as he seeks to rebuild his country. "He has turned out to be such a realpolitik buff. He's turning and negotiating with almost everyone, including the Russians," observed Sezin Oney, an international relations commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news outlet."They [Syria] will also be approaching Turkey with their own interests, and whether they're aligned with Turkey's interests is another question," she added.Turkey's ongoing military presence in Syria as part of its war against a Kurdish insurgency by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) could become a point of tension between Ankara and Syria's new rulers, experts predict.Iran too – like Russia, also a key backer of the ousted Assad regime – is now seeking to reposition itself to reach out to the new Syrian regime.Russia's interest in Syria"There are some pragmatic approaches," said professor of international relations Bilgehan Alagoz, an Iran expert at Istanbul's Marmara University. "The Iranian authorities have already started to label Assad as a person who didn't act in accordance with Iran in order to have some new approach towards the new system in Syria."Ankara still has cards to play with Syria, being well positioned to offer support in helping to rebuild the country with its expertise in construction, energy and security. But experts warn Turkey faces a battle for influence in Damascus, as Syria seeks to widen its opportunities.
With Iran suffering setbacks in Syria and Lebanon, regional rivals Azerbaijan and Turkey are stepping up efforts to secure a strategic goal through the Zangezur corridor project that Tehran had been blocking. Turkish and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met in January in both Baku and Istanbul as part of efforts to deepen economic and trade cooperation.Key to those goals is the plan to create a route dubbed the Zangezur corridor that would link Azerbaijan to the autonomous region of Nakhchivan bordering Turkey.The corridor, which would go through Armenian territory, is part of a Turkish-Azerbaijani vision to develop a trade route between China and Europe.Iran strongly opposes the proposed 40-km corridor because, observers say, it fears it would cut a vital route it uses to circumvent sanctions.Iran's ally Armenia also opposes the corridor as an imposition on its territory. But with Iran weakened by setbacks in Syria and Lebanon, Baku and Ankara see an opportunity to push ahead."A weaker Iran is a huge opportunity for Turkey in the Caucasus," said Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners."The only reason why Armenia resists the establishment of the Zangezur corridor is because of promises by Iran to defend it militarily."But with Iran coming under pressure from the administration of US President Donald Trump, Azerbaijan or Turkey might be less likely to take Iran's threats seriously, argues Yesilada.Iran softens its stanceHowever, given Iran's regional setbacks and the threat of increased pressure from Washington, Tehran needs friends in the region."It would be good for Iran if the Zangezur corridor is opened. It then has much better and closer relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan," argues Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.It will depends on "whether they want two countries which are not friendly or two friendly countries," Bagci adds.In January, Iran appeared to soften its opposition, with one senior Iranian diplomat declaring opposition to the Zangezor corridor no longer a priority. Tehran's apparent softening coincides with its deepening ties with Moscow. Since Turkey and Azerbaijan don't enforce many sanctions against Russia, Moscow supports the Zangezor corridor as a way to bypass international sanctions by creating new trade routes through countries that don't impose them.US position unclear "Russia is basically rebuilding its whole logistical network and this corridor is a potentially important part of this new network from north to south," says Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at New York's Columbia University. "Therefore, Russia is saying: 'It matters. It's part of a new plan of diversification of our export and import routes.'"US and Armenia launched joint military exercises last year in a sign of their closer ties. Analysts suggest that Washington has, until now, contained Turkey and Azerbaijan's intentions.However, the new Trump administration has not yet positioned itself on the corridor project. Armenian political consultant Eric Hacopian warns Baku and Ankara could try to exploit the uncertainty. "Trump creates chaos, and chaos is an opportunity for bad actors to do things that they normally wouldn't do when there's no one on the watch," said Hacopian.Turkey's Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunityIn 2023, Azerbaijan's army, supported by Turkey, defeated Armenian-backed forces over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh enclave.A final peace agreement has yet to be secured. But if Ankara focuses its efforts on reviving the stalled Azerbaijani-Armenian peace talks, then diplomatic gains could outweigh the economic benefits of the Zangezur corridor, says Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution says . "Turkey can actually make itself a very significant partner (with Trump)," Aydintasbas argued, citing the Armenian-Azerbaijan peace deal.If Turkey positions itself on that issue "it would be very interesting to President Trump, who wants to position himself as an international peacemaker," said Aydintasbas. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to foster close ties with Trump. At the same time, the Turkish leader is committed to supporting his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in their shared goal of turning their countries into a bridge between Europe and China.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House on Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees a chance to rekindle what he calls his "close working relationship" with the incoming US leader. But a Trump presidency could bring risks as well as opportunities for Erdogan. Erdogan was quick to congratulate Trump on his election victory, making clear his desire to work with him again."Donald Trump is a man who acts with his instincts, and Erdogan is too," explains Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations with Ankara's Middle East Technical University. "They are not intellectuals as we used to have, big political leaders after World War II. They are tradespeople. They are very pragmatic ones, and they are political animals. In this sense, they like transactional policies, not value-based policies."Syria a key focusErdogan's top priority is expected to be securing the withdrawal of US forces from Syria, where they support the Kurdish militia YPG in the fight against the Islamic State.Ankara views the YPG as a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency in Turkey for decades.During his first presidency, Trump promised to pull US forces out of Syria, though this move faced strong resistance from American officials.Sezin Oney, a commentator with Turkey's independent Politikyol news portal, said new challenges in Syria make an early withdrawal unlikely."Not to have the ISIS resurgence again or this HTS presenting a threat to the United States, the Trump administration would be interested in protecting the YPG and the Kurds, their alliance with the Kurds," said Oney."We already have the (US) vice president, JD Vance, pointing out the ISIS resurgence."Turkey steps up military action against Kurds in Syria as power shiftsIsrael and IranThe ceasefire between Hamas and Israel could ease another potential point of tension between Erdogan and Trump, as Erdogan has been a strong supporter of Hamas.Meanwhile, both Ankara and Washington share concerns over Iran's regional influence, which could encourage cooperation between the two leaders."Trump administration is coming in with a desire to stabilise relations with Turkey," said Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst with the Brookings Institution."We are likely to see more and more of a personal rapport, personal relationship, which had been missing during the Biden administration," she added. "President Erdogan and President Trump will get along famously. But it does not mean Turkey gets all of its policy options."Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agendaFighter jets and UkraineErdogan is also hoping the Trump administration will lift a Congressional embargo on advanced fighter jet sales. Experts suggest Turkey could play a key role in any Trump-led efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, given Erdogan's ties with both Russia and Ukraine."If Trump is pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine, in this case Turkey could be very helpful as a potential mediator," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund's Ankara office.But Unluhisarcikli warned of potential challenges."What happens in Syria could be a test for the US-Turkey relationship very early on. Turkey is actually preparing for a new intervention in northeast Syria against what Turkey sees as a terrorist organisation, and what the United States sees as a partner on the ground."Economic risksTrump's previous presidency saw tensions with Erdogan peak after Trump threatened to destroy Turkey's economy over its plans to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces. This move triggered a sharp drop in the Turkish lira.With Turkey's economy now weaker than before, analysts say Erdogan will need to proceed cautiously in his dealings with the new Trump administration.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is being viewed as an opportunity by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to return millions of Syrian refugees amid growing public resentment. However, it remains uncertain whether those who have built new lives in cities like Istanbul are prepared to return. Syrian refugee Hasan Sallouraoglu and his family have carved out a new life in Istanbul with a thriving pastry shop in Istanbul's Sultanbeyli district, home to around 60,000 Syrians.With Assad gone, the question of whether to return to Syria now looms. "It's been 10 years, and my shop has been open for the last eight years. We can start a shop there in Syria, too," explained Sallouraoglu.However, Sallouraoglu, with an ironic smile, acknowledges returning to Syria is a hard sell for his family. "There is not much excitement in my family. We see the news and we see that our country is completely destroyed on the ground. Ninety percent of it has been destroyed, so we need time to think," said Sallouraoglu.Across the road from Sallouraoglu's pastry shop, the owner of a clothes shop, Emel Denyal, is considering returning to her home in Aleppo but says such a move could mean breaking up her family.Nostalgia"We are all thinking about returning. But the children aren't interested. They love being here. They want to stay here," said Denyal. 'We still feel nostalgic for our land. We are still missing Syria because we were raised in Syria," added Denyal, "The Syrian generation growing up in Turkey doesn't think about going back. The elderly and my husband are considering returning, but my children aren't. Can we find a solution?"Since Assad fled Syria, Turkish authorities claim about 35,000 Syrians out of the nearly four million living in Turkey have gone home.The Refugee Association in Sutlanebeyli provides assistance to some of Istanbul's 600,000 Syrian refugees. Social welfare director Kadri Gungorur says the initial euphoria over Assad's ousting is making way to a more pragmatic outlook."The desire to return was very strong in the first stage but has turned into this: 'Yes, we will return, but there is no infrastructure, no education system, and no hospitals,' said Gungorur.Gungorur says with only 12 families from Sultanbeyli returning to their homes, he worries about the consequences if Syrians don't return in large numbers. "If the Syrians do not return, the general public may react to the Syrians because now they will say that 'Syria is safe. Why don't you return?'"Over the past year, Turkish cities, including Istanbul, have witnessed outbreaks of violence against Syrians amid growing public hostility towards refugees. Turkish authorities have removed Arabic from shop signs in a move aimed at quelling growing resentment made worse by an ailing economy.Concerns for womenTurkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin of Istanbul's Yeditepe University claims the government is aware of the Turkish public's concern. "We all saw the civil war in Syria. Four million immigrant people in Turkey and that has brought a lot of problems in Turkey ...even criminal actions. There's also the problem of border security. Turkish public opinion is opposed to the Syrian people today," said Casin.Erdogan is promising to facilitate the quick return of Syrian refugees. However, such aspirations could well be dependent on the behaviour of Syria's new rulers,"The Syrians you have in Turkey are mostly women and children. So it has to be a government and administration friendly to women and children, specifically women," says analyst Sezin Oney of the independent Turkish news portal Medyascope. "But we don't know with these, Islamist, jihadist groups. Will they be really friendly towards these othe groups? So I don't see the return of the Syrians who are in Turkey, really," added Oney.Erdogan is pledging that the return of the Syrians will be voluntary. However, analysts suggest more decisive action may be necessary, as the Turkish leader knows if the refugees do not return home quickly, it could have political consequences.
Turkish-backed forces have launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. The Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish air power, is pushing against the US-supported People's Defense Units (YPG), which Ankara claims is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades. The YPG controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey, which Ankara says poses a security threat.Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan says Turkey is determined to prevent the YPG and its affiliate the PKK from exploiting a power vacuum following the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies ahead"We are in communication with the groups to make sure that terrorist organisations, especially Daesh [Islamic State] and the PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation," he said. "Turkey is committed to continuing the fight against terrorism. All minorities – non-Muslims, Christians, non-Arabs, Kurds – should be treated equally."Opportunity for AnkaraEver since the YPG took over control of the Syrian territory at the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Ankara has been seeking to remove it. With the ousting of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of its Iranian and Russian backers, which had in the past blocked Turkish military interventions, analysts say Ankara now sees an opportunity to finally remove the YPG threat."The current situation creates an opportunity for its [Turkey's] fight against PKK and YPG because there is now no Russia, there is no Iran," explains Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University."Turkey was facing the Russian forces, the Iranian forces, and Assad's regime forces while it was combatting the PKK and YPG," she added. "We can name it as an opportunity for its fight against PKK and YPG."Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agendaHowever, the YPG is still being supported by a small US military force, as part of the war against the Islamic State (IS). The YPG is also detaining thousands of IS militants.'The Euphrates is a line'With the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army now approaching the Euphrates River, analysts say further eastward advances could put Ankara on a collision course with both Washington, and Syria's new rulers – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. "The Euphrates now is like a line perhaps for the US military," explains Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet."If that [military advance] goes on as such, it could bring Turkey indirectly head to head with the US, with even perhaps HTS, and it could put Ankara in a delicate diplomatic position again," warned Selcen.Tensions with IsraelThe Israeli military's advance into Syria is adding to Ankara's concerns over the threat posed by the PYG and its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar last month described the Kurds as a "natural ally" of Israel, a comment that came amid growing Israeli-Turkish tensions.Turkey seeks Gaza ceasefire role despite US criticism over Hamas ties"Israel is now carving out a corridor [in Syria] between the PKK/PYD-controlled territories, and its own territories," explained Hasan Unal, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University."That suggests that this is what they [Israel] are trying to do – [to create] a Kurdish puppet state east of the Euphrates. And this is something that is likely to create lots of problems with Turkey," he added.With Israel's presence in Syria, Ankara is likely to step up pressure on the YPG, and on the incoming Trump administration to end US military presence in Syria.
As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues, a collection of films titled From Ground Zero, created by Gaza-based filmmakers, has earned a place at the Oscars. The project, overseen by Palestinian filmmaker Rashid Masharawi, includes 22 short films spanning documentary, animation, and drama.The films aim to share the voices of people living through the conflict in Gaza, offering a glimpse into their fears, dreams and hopes."The idea for From Ground Zero came immediately, in the second month of this ongoing war, to try to pick up films and stories from Gaza," Masharawi told RFI.He explained that the goal was to give filmmakers in Gaza the chance to make their own films.As a recent report from Reporters Without Borders (RSF) underlines the toll of the war on Palestinian journalists, RFI spoke with him and his team in Paris.RSF says Israel responsible for one-third of journalist deaths in 2024The shorts, ranging from three to six minutes, are "a mix between fiction, documentaries, video art and even experimental films," he said."We are filmmakers, we are dealing with cinema. Even if it's a catastrophe, it's very tough with all the massacres. But we were also trying to make cinema, to add life, to be optimistic and to add hope."The 112-minute collection is presented as a feature film in two parts. Contributors include Reema Mahmoud, Muhammad Al Sharif, Tamer Nijim and Alaa Islam Ayou.From film festivals to the OscarsAfter premiering at the Toronto Film Festival in September, From Ground Zero toured film festivals across Europe, North Africa and South West Asia in November and December.Screenings have taken place at the French Arab Film Festival near Paris, the Bristol Palestine Film Festival and in London. Additional showings are scheduled for Morocco and Egypt.Earlier this year, Masharawi held an outdoor screening of the film during the Cannes Film Festival to protest its exclusion from the event.Now, the collection has been selected to represent Palestine at the Oscars in March 2025, with hopes of a wider release in the United States, Europe and the Middle East.UN rapporteur says Israel's war in Gaza is 'emptying the land completely'Emerging voicesThe project was made possible by the Masharawi Fund for Gaza Filmmakers, launched in November 2023 to support creative talent from the territory.Masharawi, who is from Gaza, is one of the first Palestinian filmmakers to have directed cinema projects in the occupied Palestinian territories.His first film, Travel Document, was released in 1986, followed by The Shelter in 1989 and Long Days in Gaza in 1991.The executive producer of the film, Laura Nikolov, who is French and based in France, is travelling with Masharawi to promote the film around the world."It's a very unique project," she told RFI. "We have now translated it into 10 different languages. We made this to allow the voices of the Gazan people [to be heard] and it's working. I think we've reached more than 60, perhaps 80 screenings and festivals."With its selection for the Oscars, Nikolov is hopeful that the film will reach even wider audiences."This means it will be shown in cinemas in the United States," she said, adding that they hope to expand its reach across Europe and the Middle East.
Ankara, one of the principal backers of some of the Syrian rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad, is being seen as a winner in the overthrow of the Assad regime. However, analysts warn much of the success of the operation will depend on whether a stable government emerges. This dramatic end to the Assad family's half-century rule over Syria marks a significant shift in the region's balance of power, with analysts predicting that Turkey's influence in Syria could now grow at the expense of its regional rivals."Turkey emerged… by proving its relevance, importance and its strength… out of these latest developments in Syria… as the clean, clear winner," says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet."And Iran is definitely the loser. And Russia also is pushed aside."Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agendaThe Turkish-backed Syrian National Army played a role in the overthrow of Assad. However, it was the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahir Al Sham – or HTS – that led the offensive. And that, analysts say, will be a cause for apprehension in Ankara."Despite all the jubilation of the Turkish press and the government and the circles that support the government about the collapse of the Assad regime in general, I would think there is some uneasiness," says Hasan Unal, professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University. "I can see it through lots of problematic issues that would be coming out of what's going to happen," he added, "because of the ideological Islamist leanings of the incumbent government and… the Islamic jihadist terrorist groups associated with it."Support and protectionHowever, Turkey may not be entirely without influence over Syria's new Islamist leaders. For years, it provided support and protection to the Idlib region of Syria, where HTS was based. Analyst Aydin Selcen suggests Ankara could retain significant influence if recent statements by HTS leadership calling for an inclusive Syrian government are honoured. "If pragmatism prevails, that's perhaps where Turkey and Ankara may come in. And also Ankara definitely will be viewed as a positive outside contributor by these new Syrian rulers, because of the fact that we here in Turkey are hosting over 5 million Syrians and also that Turkey helped protect Idlib."Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, addressing an international conference in Doha last Sunday, 8 December, said that Turkey is committed to helping secure a politically inclusive new Syria. Turkey's Syrian refugees A stable Syria is also key to Ankara's goal of sending home millions of Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. Public resentment over their presence has grown, as the country has grappled with an economic crisis over the past few years.However, such a return may not be simple, predicts Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's independent Politikyol news site."The refugees, the Syrians you have in Turkey, are mostly women and children. So it has to be a [new Syrian] government, an administration, friendly to women and children, especially women.""But we don't know if these Islamic jihadist groups will be really friendly towards these groups," he added."There might be a Taliban 2.0 arising just across the border; we don't know what kind of administration HTS and surrounding groups will be. It's a big security risk; I don't see Syria settling down to become a safe clash-free place." 'Imperative' to work against IS in Syria, Blinken tells TurkeyFor now, Erdogan is celebrating the overthrow of Assad as a Turkish triumph, with European leaders and Washington queuing up to speak to him as Turkey positions itself as a key player in shaping Syria's future.But the sudden demise of the Assad regime underscores how quickly fortunes can change in the region, and the future of Syria – and Turkey's role in it – are today more uncertain than ever.
The capture of Syria's major cities by rebel groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, fighting against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, offers Turkey the opportunity to achieve its strategic goals in the country. The lightning offensive of Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which has seen the rebels capture several major Syrian cities in less than two weeks, gives Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leverage over his Syrian counterpart President Bashar al-Assad."Turkey can easily stop both [rebel] entities and start a process. Turkey does have this strength, and Assad is well aware of it," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. Until now, Assad has rejected Erdogan's overtures for dialogue to end the civil war peacefully. "The Turkish intention politically is not to escalate in Syria [but to] start a political, diplomatic engagement with the Assad regime, and come to the terms of a normal state, and that all Syrians safely return to their homes," Aslan noted.Syrian rebels surround Hama 'from three sides', monitor saysSyrian refugees an issueErdogan is seeking to return many of the estimated 4 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, amid growing public unease over their presence in the country."According to the opinion polls here, yes, the Syrian refugees [are] an issue. For any government, it would be a wonderful win to see these Syrians going back to Syria of their own will," explained Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news outlet.However, Moscow has a lot to lose in Syria, as a key military backer of Assad, who in turn has granted Russia use of a key Syrian naval base. "For Moscow, it's of crucial importance that the personality of Assad remains in power," said Zaur Gasimov, a professor of history and a Russia specialist at the University of Bonn.Syria rebel leader says goal is to overthrow AssadGasimov warns that Turkey could be facing another humanitarian crisis. "Russia would definitely use the military force of its aerospace forces, that can cause a huge number of casualties among civilians. Which means a new wave of migrants towards Turkish eastern Anatolia."With more than a million Syrian refugees camped just across the Turkish border in the rebel-controlled Syrian Idlib province, analysts warn a new exodus into Turkey is a red line for Ankara."If they refresh their attacks on the captured areas by indiscriminate targeting... well [we can] expect further escalations in the region," warned Aslan of the pro-government SETA think tank. "And for sure there is a line that Turkey will not remain as it is, and if there is a development directly threatening the interests or security of Turkey, then Turkey will intervene."Pushing back the YPGWith the Syrian rebel offensive also making territorial gains against the US-backed Kurdish militant group, the YPG, Ankara is poised to secure another strategic goal in Syria. Ankara accuses the YPG of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is fighting the Turkish state.France joins Germany, US and Britain in call for de-escalation in Syria"Without putting up a fight, and without getting directly involved, they [Ankara] have achieved one of their goals – for YPG to pull back from the Turkish frontier towards the south," explained Selcen. "I think Ankara now is closer to that goal."With Syrian rebel successes appearing to advance Ankara's goals in Syria, some analysts are urging caution, given the rebels' links to radical Islamist groups. "The crashing down of the Assad regime is not in the interest of Turkey, because there will be chaos," warned international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University."Who is going to rule? What type of [governing] structure are we going to have?" he asked. "They are radicals, and another Daesh-style territory would not be in the interest of Turkey – in Turkish prisons, there are thousands of Daesh people."
Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire, despite its close ties with Hamas, which have drawn criticism from Washington. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to "make every contribution" to end what he called the "massacre" in Gaza. US President Joe Biden signalled this week that Turkey could have a role in mediating peace in the Middle East."The United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza," Biden told reporters.However, US officials have downplayed Turkey's mediating role due to Ankara's ties to Hamas."We don't believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in ... a major city of one of our key allies and partners," US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said earlier.Hamas tensionsHamas leaders reportedly relocated to Turkey after the collapse of ceasefire efforts in November.Erdogan, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has described the group as a "liberation movement". Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Erdogan declared a national day of mourning."There are rumours, and I don't know how true they are, that many of those people have actually received Turkish citizenship as well," Soli Ozel, a lecturer at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna told RFI.In a move seen as an attempt to placate Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that there are no plans for Hamas to open a political bureau in Turkey.Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin defended the policy: "Ankara will continue its position hosting Hamas number one. Number two, they will continue dialogue with Hamas in order to establish peace".Turkish President Erdogan ready to rekindle friendship with TrumpComplex tiesDespite tensions between Turkey and Israel, they maintain back-channel communication.In November, the head of Israel's intelligence agency Shin Bet met his Turkish counterpart in Ankara. The meeting reportedly centred on the plight of Israeli hostages held by Hamas."We have 101 hostages that are still, we don't know their fate," says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies."There are attempts to at least receive information about who's alive, who's dead, who's holding them – Hamas or Islamic Jihad."Lindenstrauss cautioned that Israel remains sceptical of Turkey's ability to act as a neutral mediator."It would be very hard for Israel in general and specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu to trust Turkey to be a mediator that will be respectful to both sides," she said.While Erdogan's public rhetoric often inflames tensions, analysts say Turkish-Israeli relations are shaped more by pragmatism than politics."Turkey and Israel have one way of dealing with one another in public and another way of dealing with one another diplomatically and in security cooperation," Ozel explains.In a possible effort to build trust, Turkish authorities recently extradited three Uzbek suspects linked to the murder of an Israeli rabbi in the United Arab Emirates.Egypt and Turkey's closer ties spark hope for peace among Libya's rival factionsChallenges remainAs Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a Gaza ceasefire for now."The reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas," Netanyahu said Tuesday."From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas."Despite Ankara's overtures, Israel has warned that Hamas leaders are not safe from targeting, even in Turkey."They will find these Hamas leaders and target them wherever they find them," Lindenstrauss maintains.
In Turkey, hundreds of new producers are growing the country's wine industry, and its international reputation – despite increasing taxation and controls by President Erdogan's religious, conservative government. Grapes have been grown for centuries in Manisa, western Turkey. It is here that Fulya Akinci and her Spanish husband, Jose Hernandez Gonzalez, decided they wanted to be a part of the transformation of the country's wine industry."In 2005, in 2006, maybe when you went to a restaurant, you would order red wine or white wine, that was it," explains Akinci. "In the last 15 years, there has been a real boom. We have so many, we say, boutique wineries. Now, with these small wineries, the quality has changed a lot."With their wine label Heraki, Akinci and Hernandez Gonzalez are part of this surge of new, small producers – a group which has grown to number around 200, from only a handful a decade ago. The couple trained at a wine school in Bordeaux and have worked in vineyards around the world. Hernandez Gonzalez explained that it was Turkey's untapped potential that persuaded him and Akinci to produce their own wine there."As a foreigner, when I came to Turkey I was really surprised about the biodiversity of different grape varieties," he said. "This is a country with many different grape varieties. Also, [there was] the potential of the soils and the climate. We have mountains, we have the coasts – many different climates to make grapes. And the potential of those grapes to make wine is huge."France asks for EU help to destroy 'unprofitable' Bordeaux vinesGovernment restrictionsHernandez Gonzales explained that rather than making wine from vines used worldwide, they decided to use indigenous grapes. "One of our main ideas here at Heraki was to make wines from those local grapes."In five years, their production has increased from a couple of thousand to 20,000 bottles. But the couple says this has been an uphill struggle. "We have some difficulties because of the bureaucracy – so much paperwork – and some pressures over tax... so huge pressures on us. It's not easy at all," explained Akinci.Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK), which enjoys large support among Muslims, has, since coming to power in 2002, hiked alcohol taxes to 65 percent, among the highest in the world. There are also growing restrictions on wine production, sales and advertising. "We love making wine, but it's not easy at all. It's hard, and every day is getting worse and worse," said Akinci.Turkey's broadcasting authorities banned images of alcohol on television back in 2013, and in much of the country securing alcohol licences is difficult.Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activistsBut meanwhile, government adverts promoting Turkey as a tourist destination abroad often highlight the country's wines as an attraction. With much of the wine industry based in tourism centres, experts say tourists are helping to drive demand and grow the reputation of Turkish wines.International interest"Wine producers have started to get better prices for their wines. They can now make money, against all the odds. There is international interest," said wine consultant Sabiha Apaydın Gonenli. Through her Kok Koken Toprak Conference (Root Soil Wine Conference) international symposiums, she promotes Turkey's wine industry internationally.However, she warns the industry still has a long way to go. "It's not that economically viable at the moment because it is very small. In order to market this, you need support. You can't do this alone, wine producers need to come together."Police break up French-Italian wine fraud ringAs for Heraki wines, they are now being stocked at a top European restaurant and have secured a German distributor. But despite such successes, Akinci says wine-making in Turkey remains a bittersweet experience."One day, we are so happy to make wine here, and we are thinking about increasing the volume and making other things. Then another day, we're thinking about closing up and going to Spain."
The banning of an Istanbul-based independent radio station has sparked political condemnation and protests in Turkey. With a mission to bridge the country's cultural divides over the last 30 years, Acik Radio's closure is seen as part of the government's attempts to tighten its grip on the media. Turkey's media regulator, RTUK, revoked the station's licence, claiming it had failed to comply with an earlier fine and suspension.That order came after a guest earlier this year referred to the 1915 killings of Armenians by Turkey's then-Ottoman rulers as a genocide.RTUK ruled that the comment incited public hatred. While Acik did pay the fine, it didn't come off air, saying it was appealing the initial ruling in court.The revocation of its broadcasting licence has drawn international condemnation and alarm. "Acik Radio has always adopted a moderate language, reflecting various political views," Erol Onderoglu, the Turkey representative for Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) told RFI. Onderoglu warns that banning Acik is part of a wider trend in the country of "eliminating media pluralism and weakening remaining minority voices". He continued: "It is in line with a political mission to impose a single official view on society, what they call national and patriotic journalism."'Cultural hub'In Istanbul's Kadikoy district, listeners have been chanting in protest over Acik Radio's removal from the airwaves.Elif Unal, an avid listener, said the station has been an important part of everyday life for a long time. "They ban everything that makes us smile, that makes us feel happy," she said. "Most of the people in Istanbul, across Turkey, open their eyes listening to Acik Radio. Acik Radio is important because it's a cultural hub and also a political supporter of many organisations, NGOs and activists."Armenians warn ethnic cleansing risks being forgotten – againProtestor Mete Atature said he grew up listening to Acik. "Whichever programme you are listening to, you'll learn something. Not like a lecture, not like an education programme, but there's always something it leaves you with, and I miss that."He added: "From one side, of course, it's a shock. From another side, it's not unexpected, given the way the whole country is going. There is less and less free speech, and there's more oppression, and this is another example."Diverse voicesSince its launch in 1994, Acik Radio has sought to bridge Turkey's deep cultural and political divides. Volunteers produce and present social and cultural programmes that represent the country's diverse population, including minorities.Yetvart Danzikyan hosted Acik's show "Radio Agos," a programme aimed at Turkey's Armenian minority."We tried to make the unheard voices of not only the Armenian community but also all the other minorities, the Greek, Jewish, and Suryani communities," he said, adding that they were trying to bring even more unheard voices to the station's programmes.Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries upTurkey's main opposition parties are supporting the station, and say the closure is a government attempt to further tighten its grip on the country's media.For now, Acik has returned to broadcasting via the internet, securing a licence under the new name of APACIK Radio. But those who run the station feel they are fighting an uphill battle. "The general atmosphere is getting towards more repression in Turkey," Acik's co-founder Omer Madra said wearily. "But we are very determined to fight on, and we've had some magnificent support from all the regions of the country."
With Donald Trump on course to begin his second term as US president, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing renewed opportunities for collaboration – hoping to rekindle the close relationship the two shared during Trump's first presidency. Erdogan, who congratulated Trump as a "friend" on social media, sees this as a chance to reshape US-Turkey relations.During Biden's presidency, engagement was largely limited to foreign ministers – marking a stark contrast to the “strong leader-to-leader relationship” Erdogan and Trump had enjoyed, says analyst Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.Trump and President Erdogan met face to face about nine times, compared to only two "brief encounters" with Biden, he adds.ChemistryErdogan often speaks warmly of his dealings with Washington during Trump's first term in office."The chemistry is the same. Two charismatic leaders, two leaders who are unpredictable," notes Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University.He believes their personal rapport could set the stage for greater bilateral and regional cooperation, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.Erdogan has long sought to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given his close ties with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and, more controversially, with Vladimir Putin – a relationship that drew criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey's NATO partners."Trump will push for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that's something that Turkey has always preferred," predicts Asli Aydintasbas a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.Turkey eyes US presidential race that stands to shake up mutual tiesYPG policyErdogan will also look to Trump for changes in US policy toward the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara views as linked to the PKK, a group fighting the Turkish state.The YPG's alliance with Washington against the Islamic State has strained US-Turkey relations, with Biden resisting Erdogan's calls to end support for the group.Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen predicts Erdogan will hope Trump might be open to a deal."Erdogan thinks that, like himself, Trump too is a pragmatic leader. So leaving aside principles or other such in brackets, the two sides can reach an agreement by giving and taking something between the two," says Selcen.UnpredictabilityWhile Trump has often spoken positively about Erdogan, he nonetheless remains unpredictable.“Can you rely on him?” asks Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish pro-government thinktank.Tensions between Turkey and Israel could also complicate relations.Erdogan has expressed hope that Trump will succeed where Biden failed in ending Israel's war on Hamas and Hezbollah, but with Trump's strong support for Israel and Erdogan's backing of Hamas, a clash could be looming."What happens if there is an escalation in the Middle East with the polarisation of Israel and Turkey, as it currently is, and the attitude of Trump, it's very clear that the Trump administration will threaten Turkey," says Aslan.With conflicts raging across the region, Erdogan views a new Trump presidency as an opportunity for Turkey and the region.But given the leaders' unpredictability, that opportunity doesn't come without risks.
As the United States stands on the brink of what many are calling the most consequential presidential election in recent history, the nation is focused on the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump organised last-day rallies. RFI's Jan van der Made looks back at a campaign marked by unprecedented polarisation. The bitter rivals embarked on a final frenzied campaign blitz Monday with both hitting must-win Pennsylvania on the last day of a tight and volatile US presidential election campaign.Pennsylvania is the single biggest swing state prize under the US Electoral College system, which awards influence in line with population.Republican Trump has promised a "landslide" as he seeks his return to the White House, while Democrat Harris said the "momentum" was on the side of her bid to be America's first woman president.DeadlockBut the polls suggest a different story on the eve of Election Day – total deadlock in surveys nationally and in the seven swing states where the result is expected to be decided.The world is anxiously watching the election, which is set to have profound implications for conflicts in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine, and for tackling climate change.Both sides say they are encouraged by early turnout numbers, with over 78 million people having voted already, around half of the total number of ballots cast in 2020.No middle groundThe closeness of the 2024 White House race reflects a deeply divided United States, as it chooses between two candidates whose visions could scarcely be more different.Media outlets and political parties have poured millions of dollars into advertising campaigns that leave little room for middle ground.This stark divide is a reflection of the American political system, where the winner-takes-all approach often marginalises third-party candidates and reinforces the dominance of the two major parties.US elections: Who are the running mates for the key candidates? As election day approaches, the spotlight has fallen on undecided voters who may ultimately tip the scales in this tight race.Campaign volunteers have been working tirelessly, engaging directly with potential voters in an effort to sway opinions and drive turnout.To discuss what is at stake, RFI's Jan van der Made spoke to analyst J. Wesley Leckrone, Chair Political Science Widener University, Daniel Hopkins, Political Scientist University of Pennsylvania and Daniel Laurison, Associate Professor Sociology at Swarthmore College and former campaigner for Barack Obama.
With the presidential election in the United States only days away, Turkey is watching the vote closely. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoyed a close working relationship with Donald Trump when he was president, analysts warn that a second term for Trump wouldn't come without risks for Ankara. Erdogan has avoided commenting on the US election, but Ankara sees the outcome of the 5 November vote as key for Turkish-US relations.Each of the contenders, Vice-President Kamala Harris and Trump, are expected to take significantly different approaches to Turkey's long-time leader."During the past Trump presidency, the political relationship at the highest level between Erdogan and Trump was a strong one," says Sinan Ulgen, head of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul think tank.Ties with President Joe Biden have been notably less friendly, however, if Harris were to win the relationship with Erdogan is likely to be a much more shallow one, Ulgen believes.Face-to-face timeErdogan met Trump nine times during his 2017-21 presidency, including on a state visit to Washington.In contrast, he met Biden only briefly on the sidelines of international summits, with US-Turkish relations mainly conducted at foreign-minister level."Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, either in the US capital or in the Turkish capital," says international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University."For Erdogan, leader-to-leader talks are key to achieving his goals. And probably, he thinks deep down that he can sort out many things through personal contact, connections or personal engagement."Such interaction, especially with the most powerful person in the world, is also seen as vital to Erdogan's status at home."It's very important for his domestic standing and legitimacy," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution."He has built a personalised system but also convinced voters, particularly his base, that he is a consequential leader, that Turkey is rising, that he is very important, he is on par with the US president and the Russian president, that everybody is looking up to Erdogan."Turkey and Russia closer than ever despite Western sanctionsLack of chemistry?Aydintasbas questions how easy it would be for Erdogan to develop a relationship with Harris, even if she were ready to engage more directly than Biden."I cannot imagine what type of chemistry Harris and Erdogan would have. They don't come from similar backgrounds. It's difficult to imagine the two developing a very close personal relationship, to be honest," the analyst says.Erdogan has often spoken warmly of his relationship with Trump – despite the fact he got hit by sanctions during his time in the White House over the detention of an American pastor, prompting the Turkish lira to crash in 2018.Trump once even vowed to "totally destroy and obliterate" the Turkish economy over Turkey's threats to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces."We have memories of the threats and sanctions," warns Murat Aslan of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara.Invoking the 2018 crisis, Aslan said: "Rather than words, I think deeds are important."Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economyHigh-risk candidateThe Middle East is another potential sticking point.Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could again emerge between the US and Turkish leaders."Trump's approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually escalate the tension in the Middle East to the extent that a regional war could be unavoidable," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who directs the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara."So yes, a Trump presidency has many opportunities for Turkey – but at a very high risk."Meanwhile, though there has been little direct contact between Biden and Erdogan, Turkish-US relations have shown signs of improvement in recent months.With the two Nato allies increasingly cooperating and better managing their differences, Aydintasbas suggests, there are merits for Ankara to both candidates."A Kamala Harris administration would mean more continuity, but the promise of stability in Turkish-US relations," she says. "Whereas Trump is so unpredictable that it could be very good one day, very bad one day."With the Middle East war continuing to rage, Trump's unpredictability remains a risk to Ankara – but Erdogan will likely still covet the opportunity to renew his relationship with the US strongman.
A year of war in Gaza has undermined international law and threatens to make the strip uninhabitable, according to the United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese. She tells RFI why she is making the case for Israel's offensive to be classified a genocide. More than 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing extremely critical levels of hunger, according to the UN. Seventy percent of crop fields and livelihoods have been destroyed during the Israeli military offensive.The war, which has claimed 42,000 lives in Gaza and left hundreds of thousands wounded, has also spread to the West Bank and Lebanon. Civilians as well as UN peacekeepers have been targeted by Israel's forces."I used the word 'catastrophe' for the first time back in October 2023," Albanese told RFI, "when Israel had killed 8,000, 6,000 people in the first weeks of the conflict and destroyed entire neighbourhoods, bakeries, churches, and targeted UN buildings and universities."This is not the way wars are conducted."Albanese was speaking as she prepared to launch her latest report on the situation in Gaza and the other Palestinian territories, which she presented to the UN General Assembly earlier this week.In it, she takes a long view of the current conflict, arguing that Israel's military actions form part of a systematic attempt to displace Palestinians that goes back decades – and which she calls a genocide."Israel occupies that land, according to the International Court of Justice, unlawfully," Albanese said. "So Israel unlawfully occupies a territory, oppressing its people, who of course retaliate. Then they wage a war against them. It doesn't work that way."Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Gaza'Emptying the land'Albanese acknowledges the deadly violence inflicted on Israelis by the attacks of 7 October last year, and she has advocated for the investigation and prosecution of crimes committed against civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups.But she warns that the trauma of 7 October has deepened Israeli animosity towards Palestinians and spurred calls for vengeance, providing the government with an opportunity to escalate its actions in the occupied territories with the goal of making them unliveable."As we speak, Israel is running extermination raids neighbourhood per neighbourhood in the areas that were already forcibly evacuated, ethnically cleansed of nearly 1 million people in northern Gaza," Albanese told RFI."Only 400,000 people remained, who have been starved, abused and bombed. What the people in Gaza have gone through is really unspeakable, and now it is emptying the land completely."Hamas attack, one year on - a view from IsraelIsrael and UN at oddsThe war has brought Israel's already tense relations with the United Nations to a low point, with the Israeli parliament this week approving a controversial bill to ban the UN's agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA – considered a lifeline for Gaza – from operating on Israeli territory.Israel claims many of the agency's staff belong to Hamas or other terrorist groups, and accused some of them of involvement in the 7 October attacks.The UN says it investigated the allegations and identified problems with neutrality, but no proof of terror links. It warns that restricting UNRWA will have a devastating effect on aid supply chains into Gaza.More broadly, UN leaders have called for a ceasefire and denounced starvation, mass displacements, atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity.Albanese has proved an especially controversial figure, calling for the UN to consider suspending Israel as a member state over its actions. Her stance has drawn accusations of bias and antisemitism from Israel's allies, notably the United States, which cancelled a briefing she was due to give the US Congress this week.Washington and others argue that Israel has the right to defend itself – though Albanese questions whether its military operations are truly making it safer."Is it protection?" she asked. "How is what Israel is doing going to make its citizens protected? This is the question. And the blindness at the political level is mind-blowing."
The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, long-standing supporters of rival factions in Libya, offers a potential pathway to easing tensions in the North African country. Libya resumed oil exports this month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country's central bank, which oversees oil exports."This was a serious crisis," said Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute. "And while it's partly fixed, there are still issues that need attention."The row between Libya's two rival administrations which led to the temporary halt, was only resolved by intense negotiations, but Harchaoui claims the conflict's repercussions continue.Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa"A lot of players, including armed groups in Tripoli, are trying to take advantage of whatever has happened over the last several weeks. So I'm not describing a scenario of war, but I'm describing a more volatile environment," he said.Turkish-Egyptian relationsHowever, a recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could offer hope of easing Libyan tensions."We agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability," pledged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a press conference last month in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Libya once was a point of Turkish-Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing the eastern Libyan administration in Benghazi of Khalifa Haftar and Ankara supporting the western Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Now, Egyptian-Turkish collaboration is key to resolving the latest Libyan crisis."Both countries can push the Tripoli-based government at least to accept something or come to the least terms that they can agree," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-Turkish government think tank. "So it's a win-win situation for both Egypt and Turkey."Economic crisesWith both the Turkish and Egyptian economies in crisis, the economic benefits of cooperating in Libya are seen as a powerful force behind the country's rapprochement and Libyan collaboration.Fighting between rival militias in Libya kills dozens"These two countries are very important to one another," said Aya Burweila, a Libyan security analyst"They've figured out a way to divide spheres and work together. Even in the east now, Turkish companies have cut lucrative deals, infrastructure deals, just as Egypt has."So economy and money drive a lot of these political friendships and reapportionment."Ankara is looking to Cairo to use its influence over Hafta to support an agreement it made with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity to explore widely believed energy reserves in Libyan waters.Libya's stability at greater risk with turmoil in Niger and Sudan, UN warnsAt the same time, Cairo is pressing to remove Ankara-supported Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya's Government of National Unity. Despite differences, Harchaoui says Cairo and Ankara are committed to cooperation."What has already been decided is that they are going to speak and they are going to speak on a daily basis," said Harchaoui."And then at every crucial moment, they are going to make sure and Turkey, specifically, is going to make sure that Egypt is on board."But we need more tangible results from the dialogue that has already been in place," he added.
Earlier this month, U.S. credit rating agency Fitch upheld its AA- rating for French debt, but shifted the outlook from "stable" to "negative." On 25 October, Moody's is set to deliver its assessment. If France's budget plans falter, the country risks a credit rating downgrade, which would drive up borrowing costs and further inflate the national debt, which currently stands at a staggering €3.2 trillion. On October 11, Fitch's decision to downgrade France's economic outlook to "negative" serves as a warning to Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who is struggling to push his 2025 budget through parliament. The credit agency's assessment signals a potential downgrade if the government fails to take swift action to improve public finances.France's fiscal situation appears increasingly precarious. The deficit, now at €167 billion (5.5 percent of GDP), could surpass 6 percent by year's end. With national debt projected to hit €3.5 trillion, or 114.7 percent of GDP, France is far beyond EU limits.France braces for economic judgment amid political turmoil and record debtEU rules require member states to keep budget deficits below 3 percent of GDP and debt under 60 percent of GDP.Fitch predicts that the deficit will hover around 5.4% in both 2025 and 2026 due to ongoing political uncertainty and the challenges in implementing fiscal reforms. The agency believes the budget could pass before the year's end, but the government may need to make concessions to win support from opposition parties. All eyes are now on Moody's which will reveal its judgement on France's economy and credit-worthiness on 25 October. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Antoine Armand emphasised the government's commitment to improving the economy following Fitch's assessment, but will that be enough?RFI spoke to Erik Norland, Chief Economist with the Chicago-based CMEGroup about the possible scenarios France's economic planners are facing.
More than 400,000 people have fled to Syria to escape Israel's military operations in Lebanon, according to the United Nations. With the numbers expected to grow as Israel steps up its offensive, neighbouring Turkey, already home to the world's largest number of refugees, fears a new wave of people seeking sanctuary. Over 405,000 people – both Lebanese and Syrian – have crossed into Syria from Lebanon since the start of Israel's offensive, according to figures from UN refugee agency UNHCR.Approximately 60 percent are under 18, UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Thursday, and most are struggling to meet basic needs.The returnees are mainly people who had sought sanctuary in Lebanon from the civil war in Syria, now in its 13th year. "In Lebanon, there have been nearly one million Syrian refugees just since 2011," says Metin Corabatir of the Research Centre on Asylum and Migration, an Ankara-based NGO.He warns this could be just the beginning of the exodus if the fighting in Lebanon continues, threatening to overwhelm Syria."We are not talking only about Syrian refugees going back to Syria, but the Lebanese population is moving, crossing the border to Syria. And Syria would either try to close the borders or force them to go north to the Turkish borders," Corabatir told RFI."This really would lead to a catastrophic situation for people, for countries and may pull Turkey into more tensions with Israel."Anti-refugee backlashPeople fleeing Lebanon have been arriving at refugee camps in north-east Syria, close to the Turkish border. But Turkey, already hosting an estimated five million refugees, including over three million Syrians, is facing growing public backlash over their presence."Turkey basically cannot handle more refugees," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, an international think tank.Earlier this year, tensions spilled over into violence against refugees in the provincial city of Kayseri. The issue has become a significant political liability for the government, with opinion polls routinely finding large majorities wanting refugees to leave.Even if the country has the practical capacity to take more people in, "I don't see Turkey accepting a massive new wave of refugees", predicts Unluhisarcikli. Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mountBorder barricadesIn the last couple of years, Ankara has constructed a wall along its border with Syria in a bid to prevent more refugees from entering Turkey. Murat Aslan, of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, believes such efforts will only continue as the war in the Middle East threatens to trigger a new exodus."Turkey does not want any further waves coming from another region because Turkey is just experiencing and mending an economic crisis," he says. "Inflation is currently under control, and we expect a decrease in it."What does another wave of refugees mean? A lot of spending, a lot of inflation, and other than this, societal insecurity. That's why Turkey will not tolerate another wave." But such a stance will likely be tested if Israel continues its offensive, creating more refugees and with them, the risk of Turkey facing a humanitarian crisis on its border.Turkey continues to host more refugees than anyone else, but for how long?
Turkey's deployment of an energy research ship accompanied by a naval escort to Somalia is the latest step in deepening bilateral ties. However, rising Ethiopian-Somali tensions threaten Turkey's substantial investments in Somalia, as Ankara's mediation efforts stall. With a great deal of fanfare, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the leaving ceremony of Turkey's energy research vessel Oruc Reis, which set sail this month to Somalia accompanied by two Turkish naval vessels.Somali energy dealThe deployment of the Oruc Reis is part of an energy deal struck with Somalia and the latest step in Ankara's long-term investment in the Horn of Africa nation."Turkey has its largest embassy in the world in Mogadishu. It has a military base there. The port of Mogadishu is controlled by a Turkish company, "explained Norman Rickelfs, a geopolitical consultant."[Turkey] signed a defense deal (with Somalia) in February, a two-part defense deal, and then an energy exploration deal in March. So, Turkey needs Somalia and Ethiopia to play well together."The threat of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa has been looming since January when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia.The agreement gives Ethiopia secure sea access in exchange for recognizing the breakaway state, a deal condemned by Somalia for infringing on its territorial integrity.Turkey enters fray mediating Ethiopia and Somalia's high-stakes disputeSomalia, Ethiopia and TurkeyAnkara which has good relations with Ethiopia, as well as Somalia has been mediating. But September's round of talks, during which Ankara had indicated an agreement could be reached, has been indefinitely postponed.The postponement follows Egypt signing a defense pact with Somalia in August. Last month, Egypt sent its first shipment of arms to Somalia in four decades.Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an African studies professor at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, warns that Egypt's military involvement complicates Ethiopian Somali reconciliation efforts."There are also some hurdles on the way with some recent tensions, especially with the involvement of Egypt and its increasing relations with Somalia," claims Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu.Tepeciklioglu warns that the longer the Ethiopian-Somalia dispute continues, the greater the risk of contagion in an unstable region."The shifting alliances in the region are also a source of problem, because most of the regional countries have strained relations with each other. And then they often have conflicting interests. So this might complicate the situation," explained Tepeciklioglu. Egypt's support of Somalia is the latest chapter in Egyptian-Ethiopian tensions. Those tensions center on Ethiopia's damming of the Nile River, which Egypt depends on.Cairo's positionCairo has strongly criticized the project, warning it poses an existential threat. "Egypt's military deployment to Somalia is a natural progression for an actor seeking to strengthen their hand in a regional competition," said Kaan Devecioglu of the Ankara-based think tank Orsam.However, Devecioglu says the priority must be to prevent current rivalries from overspilling into confrontation. "Egypt already has this strained relationship with Ethiopia due to tensions over the Nile River, which makes its presence in Somalia geopolitically sensitive. The issue is not that states are rivals but ensuring they are not enemies,' explained Devecioglu.Egyptian President Al Fateh Sisi discussed Ethiopian Somali tensions during last month's Ankara visit. The visit is part of rapprochement efforts between the countries. That rapprochement Ankara is likely to use to contain current tensions in the Horn of Africa.However, some experts warn Ankara's mediation efforts could be running out of time."We see tensions escalating in the region, and we see both sides sort of trying to extract leverage and put pressure on each other," said Omar Mahmood, a Senior Analyst of the International Crisis Group.Mahmood says that given the Horn Of Africa is already plagued with conflict Ankara's mediation efforts needs international support, "There needs to be a way to de-escalate, I think the mediation is very important. But I think there probably needs to be additional, you know, parties involved or additional pressure put on both sides in order to get to a breakthrough,” added Mahmood.Currently, there is no new date for a new round of Turkish-brokered Ethiopian Somali talks, with Ankara saying it is negotiating with each country separately. But time is not on Ankara's side as tensions continue to grow in the region, which is located on one of the world's most important trade routes.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the United Nations General Assembly to criticise Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But as Erdogan tries to lead opposition to Israel, Turkey is finding itself increasingly sidelined in the region. At the UN, Erdogan again compared Israel to Hitler, calling for an "international alliance of humanity" to stop Israel as it did Hitler 70 years ago. However, such fiery rhetoric is finding a shrinking audience."It's more conveying a message to their own base", said Sezin Oney of the Turkish news portal Politikyol. "There isn't an audience that really sees Turkey or Erdogan as the vanguard of Palestine rights anymore. On the contrary, that ship sailed long ago."Erdogan attempted to boost his image as a powerful regional player by meeting with the Lebanese and Iraqi Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Ankara is increasingly finding itself sidelined as a regional diplomatic player."Ankara's pro-Hamas approach has only marginalised Turkey in the international arena," said international relations expert Selin Nasi of the London School of Economics. "So we see Egypt and Qatar receiving credits for their roles as mediators. And Turkey is locked out of international diplomatic efforts."Since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel and Israel's subsequent Gaza campaign, Ankara has tried to position itself among international mediating efforts to end the fighting, given its close contacts with Hamas.Turkish youth finds common cause in protests against trade with IsraelMediation efforts"Turkey was asked by the United States to speak with Hamas people", said international relations expert Soli Ozel at Vienna's Institute for Human Studies.However, Ozel says the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran denied Erdogan his diplomatic trump card."One big blow to Turkey has been the murder of Haniyeh, with which Turkey did have very close relations. For all I know, he may even have had a Turkish passport", said Ozel."And I really don't think Turkey has any relations or contacts with Yahya Sinwar, who is officially and effectively the leader of Hamas".With Israel already alienated by Erdogan's fiery rhetoric along with Turkey imposing an Israeli trade embargo, Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's National Security Studies says Turkey has nothing to offer.Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race"There are two main mediators in this conflict: Egypt and Qatar. They're the two actors that have leverage over Hamas. Turkey, despite its very open support of Hamas, has very little leverage on Hamas's decisions," said Lindenstrauss."So Turkey is not effective – it doesn't have the money to push Hamas in a certain direction, it doesn't have the political leverage over Hamas to push it in the right direction. In practice ...Turkey is not very efficient."So I don't think it's a mistake that Turkey is not part of this [mediation] process."Ankara has been quick to point out that existing mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel have achieved little, with the conflict now spreading to Lebanon.However, some experts claim Ankara's diplomatic sidelining has a broader message of Arab countries pushing back against Turkey's involvement in the region."None of the Arab countries would like to get Turkey involved in this process," said international relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University."Turkey could be considered by their views as the enemy of Israel, but it is artificial. The Middle East Arab-Israeli conflict since 1948 has been an Arab-Israeli conflict, not a Turkish-Israeli conflict."Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral dealsRegional ambitionsFor more than a decade, Erdogan has sought to project Turkey's influence across the Middle East, often referring to the years of Ottoman rule as the halcyon days of peace and tranquillity.But the latest Middle East war has ended such dreams, analyst Ozel said."The Turkish government thought that they could dominate the Middle East. They played the game of hegemony seeking, and they lost it," Ozel explained."When they lost it, Turkey found itself way behind [the position] it had prior to 2011 when their grandiose scheme of creating a region which would be dominated by Turkey began."As the Israel-Hamas war threatens to escalate across the region, Erdogan's rhetoric against Israel will likely continue. But analysts warn that outside of the leader's conservative base at home, few others in the region will be receptive.
In Turkey, a student-led campaign highlighting trade with Israel is putting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an increasingly tight spot. While the president has officially declared an embargo over Israel's war in Gaza, youth activists are exposing ongoing dealings that risk embarrassing the government and crossing traditional political divides. In Istanbul's conservative Uskudar district overlooking the Bosphorus waterway, activists from the group 1,000 Youth for Palestine recently gathered to protest the killing by Israeli security forces of the Turkish-American activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi.But along with chants condemning Israel, the demonstrators also attacked Erdogan and his government for Turkey's continuing trade with Israel."I am here to force the Turkish government to stop the oil trade with Israel and to stop genocide," declared Gulsum, a university academic who only wanted to be identified by her first name for security reasons."This is not just a public demand. It's also a legal obligation for Turkey to stop genocide."Since the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, the student-based group has directed its protests at the export of Azerbaijani oil to Israel by way of a Turkish port.It also targets Turkish companies – many of which have close ties to Erdogan – that it accuses of circumventing the trade embargo by using third parties.Turkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oilUnifying causeThe group uses social networks to broadcast its message, getting around government-controlled media.The activists say they have received broad support that crosses Turkey's traditional divides of religious and secular."When it comes to Palestine, it is a story that we all unite about," said Gizem, a university student and 1,000 Youth for Palestine member."There are those who define themselves as socialists and those who define themselves as Islamists. There are also apolitical youth who say 'I don't like politics', but still join us."While Erdogan presents himself as a stalwart defender of the Palestinian cause, police are cracking down on the protests.One of the group's Palestinian members was arrested after activists disrupted a panel discussion on Israel hosted by the state broadcaster. She now faces deportation in a case that has provoked further protests.Images of police arresting headscarf-wearing members of the group further embarrassed Erdogan and his religious base.Protests escalate in Turkey over Azerbaijani oil shipments to Israel amid embargo'Divide and rule'Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, says the group's diversity poses a problem for Erdogan, given he has often sought to exploit the deep divisions between religious and secular voters when facing attack.She argues that 1,000 Youth for Palestine's ability to bridge those gaps is indicative of a wider change in Turkish society."It's actually portraying the current youth of Turkey – you don't have monolithic circles in the grassroots," explains Oney."You have a mixture: hybrid groups of conservatives, conservative-looking, but very progressive," she says. "Such hybrid groups are coming together because of a cause, but ideologically or background-wise or social class-wise, they may be very diverse."And that's something threatening for the government. Because the government is embarking on divide and rule."Persistent political headacheErdogan lost heavily in local elections earlier this year, a defeat widely blamed both on economic problems and anger over Turkey's ties to Israel.The 1,000 Youth for Palestine activists say they hope to continue to build on those results. "The reason for our success is that we put our finger on the right spot. We expose the hypocrisy of both the capitalists, the corporations and the government," claims Murat, a university student who belongs to the group."People also saw this hypocrisy and thought that someone should speak out, and they supported us a lot because of that," he added. "We will unite as the people of Turkey and continue to stand in the right place in history to stop the massacre in Palestine."The diversity of 1,000 Youth for Palestine is seen as its main strength, which is why it will likely continue to pose a political headache for Erdogan. Yet it may also offer hope that the deep divides in Turkish society can be bridged.
Turkey is undergoing an unprecedented naval expansion, positioning itself as one of Europe's largest naval powers. While some neighbours are alarmed, Ankara insists the build-up is defensive and meant to meet growing regional commitments. “We must have a strong and effective navy to live in peace on our lands,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after commissioning the latest of six planned submarines.Along with a new helicopter carrier, frigates and over a dozen warships under construction, this is part of Erdogan's push to bolster the Turkish navy.“It fits Erdogan's political agenda of exerting influence overseas, from Qatar to Somalia to Libya,” said Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.“For the navy, it means a greater role in the defence of the country – no longer just territorial, but forward defence from overseas.”New courseThe change has transformed the navy's mission.“Turkish sailors used to sail off to sea, but they would come back on the same day to their home bases and spend the night in their homes. That's no longer the case,” Guvenc says.“The Turkish navy is evolving into a major regional power.”Turkey's military presence abroad includes bases in Qatar, Libya and Somalia, with naval agreements in place. Ankara claims its expansion addresses growing threats around the region.“When you look at the conflicts in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Red Sea, they are all around Turkey,” said Mesut Casin, a Turkish presidential adviser and professor at Yeditepe University.He also pointed to Turkey's NATO role: “The naval modernisation benefits NATO and the security of Western allies, especially in terms of oil and navigation security.”Ankara has been quick to flex its new naval muscles. Four years ago, Turkish warships allegedly targeted a French NATO vessel enforcing an arms embargo on Libya.Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral dealsRegional concernsGreece, with longstanding territorial disputes with Turkey in the Aegean and Mediterranean, has voiced particular concern. Israel, too, has raised alarms over Turkey's naval growth, including military drones deployed in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus.“Some of Turkey's naval moves, like the UAV base in Northern Cyprus, could be aimed at Israel,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv."This doesn't mean again there will be a direct confrontation, but it does mean that it is something that the Israeli army has to calculate for."Greece is also modernising its navy in response to what it sees as the Turkish threat. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently reaffirmed the need for a “deterrent power” against Turkey.Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talksMeanwhile, Israel's growing naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the deployment of advanced naval assets and joint military exercises with regional partners, is adding to Turkish concerns."The Turkish military has begun to feel concerned about the deployment of its [Israel's] nuclear missile capable submarines in the Mediterranean," said naval expert Guvenc.“As long as they were in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean, it wasn't a problem. But once they shifted to the Mediterranean, it became a potential threat.”Guvenc is warning that escalating regional suspicions risks spiraling out of control.“It's a vicious circle. Turkey builds a new navy to address threats, and now its neighbours feel threatened by Turkey's naval growth. This is how arms races start, and they don't tend to end well.”Turkish shipyards are working at full capacity to meet the country's growing naval demands. Analysts say this will likely only deepen fears and tensions with its neighbours.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Ankara this week, signalling the end to years of animosity with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders committed themselves to a new era of cooperation – but some observers question how long it will last. The Egyptian president received a full diplomatic reception, with military bands and horses parading the Egyptian flag through the streets of the Turkish capital on Wednesday.Erdogan did not hold back in welcoming a man he once dubbed a "brutal dictator", and signalled a new era of partnership between the two countries."With our joint declaration, we confirmed our will to advance our cooperation in all fields, including industry, trade, defence, health, environment and energy," the Turkish president declared.String of bilateral agreementsThe two leaders signed no fewer than 17 agreements to deepen bilateral trade, diplomatic and military cooperation.The goal is to expand their annual commercial exchanges to over €13 billion in five years, from a little over €9 billion now.They also discussed their concerns linked to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the shared desire to see a ceasefire there – part of a wider trend of converging regional interests.Sisi's visit follows Erdogan's trip to Cairo in February, which resulted from years of efforts to mend damaged relations.Ankara and Cairo cut ties in 2013 after Sisi, then defence minister, ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi – Turkey's ally and part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendshipQuestion of SomalilandDespite the decade of estrangement, trade between the two countries never ceased: Turkey is Egypt's fifth-largest trading partner, while Egypt is Turkey's largest in Africa.With the Egyptian and Turkish economies in difficulty, the need to increase bilateral trade is seen as a powerful impetus towards rapprochement and a driving force for cooperation.It could also ease tension in oil-rich Libya, which has been in a state of civil war for over a decade and where Cairo and Ankara back rival governments.Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila says that Libya has become an important arena for both countries."Because the lines in the sand are so set – and each country has its sphere of influence – this has helped both countries realise that it's much more lucrative if they cooperate rather than fight each other," she told RFI.Sisi and Erdogan also discussed tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the breakaway state of Somaliland, following reports that Egypt has started deploying weapons to Mogadishu.The deployment is part of Egypt's bitter dispute with Ethiopia over its Grand Renaissance Dam, which Cairo claims seriously threatens vital water supplies from the Nile River. Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in AfricaRivalry paused, not ended?However, analysts suggest Egypt could also be seeking to challenge Turkey's influence in Somalia – in which it has heavily invested – as well as complicating Ankara's efforts to mediate between the Somali and Ethiopian governments.Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, a professor of African studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, acknowledges the danger – but predicts Erdogan and Sisi will initially seek common ground."Both Egypt and Turkey can cooperate in Somalia, especially in terms of security," she observes."They can implement joint anti-terrorism initiatives. They can combine their efforts in development projects. They can involve themselves in political stabilisation initiatives, and so on."But they can also compete with each other for a more significant role and influence in Somalia."For now, though, most experts seem to agree that with the spectre of a wider regional conflict and increasing economic pressures, Erdogan and Sisi are fully aware that cooperation, rather than rivalry, is in both their interests.
Turkey is stepping up its efforts to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia as tensions rise between the two Horn of Africa nations. This diplomatic initiative is part of Ankara's broader strategy to solidify its growing influence in this strategically vital region. Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan described August's second round of indirect talks in Ankara between his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts as constructive and positive."We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps that are important convergences on some major principles and specific modalities", Fidan said."This constitutes notable progress."While there was no breakthrough, all sides agreed to meet again in September.Controversial deal Ethiopian-Somali tensions have escalated since January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia.Under the agreement, Ethiopia would secure sea access in exchange for recognising Somaliland, a deal condemned by Somalia as an infringement on its territorial integrity."Ethiopia needs access to a coastline", said Dubai-based geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs."It's the second-largest country in Africa. It's a booming economy. And, somehow, that deal needs to be made, but it's not going to be easy because of the previous deal earlier this year with Somaliland."Ricklefs predicts that finding a solution will require considerable diplomatic finesse."It's not going to be easy to convince the Somalis to grant that [Ethiopian demands], feeling that they're under pressure right now because of the deal that was previously done with Somaliland," he said."But I think Turkey is probably best placed, as they have a very close relationship with both Ethiopia and Somalia."Somalia recently threatened to block access to Ethiopian Airlines in the latest bout of diplomatic tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt could reportedly deploy soldiers to Somalia, a move that threatens to further escalate and broaden tensions, given existing Ethiopian-Egyptian conflicts.Ethiopia and Somalia move closer to resolving Somaliland disputeDeepening influenceThe situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to be discussed during Wednesday's summit in Turkey, where Egyptian President Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet.Africa expert Elem Eyrice-Tepecikoglu from the African studies department of Ankara's Social Sciences University said Turkey's historical and deepening economic and military ties with both Somalia and Ethiopia give it an advantageous position in its mediating efforts."Somalia has a very important place in Turkey's Africa policy. Turkey has established its largest embassy in Somalia's capital, and it also established its largest military training facility, again in Somalia," said Tepecikoglu."But Turkey also has old and established relations with Ethiopia as well. There are several investments of Turkish companies in the country, and Turkey also signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia. Reportedly, Turkish drones were used against the Tigray rebel forces."Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talksEconomic, military stakesEarlier this year, the Somali parliament ratified a naval agreement with Turkey to protect its territorial waters and a deal to search for hydrocarbons. Turkey is second only to China in investment in Ethiopia, including selling its military-proven drones.Analysts suggest that there is more than diplomatic prestige at stake for Ankara in resolving Ethiopian-Somali tensions, given the region's potential and geostrategic importance as a critical world trading route."There's a reason why the Horn of Africa has American military bases and Chinese military bases. The Japanese even have a base in that area. All of them think the Horn of Africa is a pretty significant region for global shipping," Ricklefs said."It's a region that has not been developed. It has hydrocarbon resources and other resources like agricultural resources that have not been developed and would need networks and infrastructure that a country like Turkey could provide if there was security and stability."Ethiopian and Somali talks are set to resume in September. Success would underline Turkey's growing influence in a region of increasing international competition, while failure could threaten two decades of Turkish investment in the region.
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