Podcast appearances and mentions of michael reddell

The Reserve Bank appears to have caved to pressure with its decision to review its capital requirements. The central bank introduced stricter rules in 2019, requiring banks to hold capital to buffer them against a 1-in-200-year financial crisis. The rules have been criticised for driving up lending costs. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking there's been a clear appetite for change. He says the Reserve Bank has "read the tea leaves", including criticism it's faced from banks, businesses, and Finance Minister Nicola Willis herself. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Check out YouTube version here, or read an article about this chat here.Michael Reddell is a former senior official at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). He was Head of Financial Markets from 2000 to 2003 – he was an economic adviser to the central banks of Papua New Guinea and Zambia and served on the Board of the International Monetary Fund – although being semi-retired he writes regularly on central bank issues and New Zealand's economic performance.Check out the blog of Michael Reddell here.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser).Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter!Brought to you in partnership with: Icehouse Ventures is a Kiwi Venture Capital firm investing in Kiwi startups since 2001. Affiliate Links*!The Bitcoin Adviser: Plan for intergenerational digital wealth. Hatch: For US markets.Sharesies: For local, and international markets.Easy Crypto: To buy and sell digital assets.Sharesight: For tracking and reporting on your portfolioExodus: Get rewards on your first $2,500 of swapsRevolut: For a new type of banking.*Some links create a financial benefit.Online courses:The Home Buyers Blueprint: Get a better home; Get a better mortgage.The KiwiSaver Millionaire Roadmap: Get a Rockstar Retirement!New Wealth Foundations: Personal finance from a wealth-builder's perspective.Take the free, 5-part online course Crypto 101: Crypto with Confidence Get Social:Check out the most...

There's surprise among economists and industry experts after Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr abruptly resigned today. Orr was almost halfway through his second five-year term. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says no one's received an adequate explanation as to why Orr chose to depart today - and it's not good enough. "Maybe he really is just exhausted - but still, you don't just walk out on the same day, on the eve of a really big conference being hosted tomorrow." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Wednesday March 5 2025, Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell joined Ryan Bridge to discuss Adrian Orr's shock resignation as Reserve Bank Governor. Trade Minister Todd McClay has also confirmed he's keeping a close eye on potential trade disruptions that could impact New Zealand as Trump's tariffs kick in. Former ACT leader Richard Prebble also unpacked the combination of factors that led to him stepping down from the Waitangi Tribunal. Plus, The Huddle wonders if body cameras for bin inspectors will do more harm than good. Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Young people continue to bear the brunt of job losses. The latest Stats NZ figures reveal the unemployment rate among those aged 15 to 19 hit 23%, the highest in more than a decade. The age group also lost more than 70% of the 32,000 net jobs lost last year. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking young people typically bear the brunt. He says it's never got below around 13% even when the economy is at its strongest. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 7th of February, Mike was astounded at the youth unemployment rate reaching a record high, so Michael Reddell joined to break down the situation. How concerned is Winston Peters about the potential deal between the Cook Islands and China? The Foreign Minister discusses the situation and whether the foreign buyers ban could be lifted. Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson didn't take a long weekend, instead joined Mike to Wrap the Week. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The country is desperate to go for growth. The question is: how? We got 3 points of view over the weekend - Friday it was the turn of Matthew Hooten. His piece was called New Zealand needs a strategic approach to building wealth like Singapore's Temasek. Temasek own and manage assets that are held directly by its government. They operate a major bank and insurance company, Singapore airlines, the country's main port, and a load of other things. It's as if we've been investigating it for decades. Even Grant Robertson was interested but nothing's ever happened. So it has cross party appeal, but why hasn't it happened? Who knows. Ask the politicians - all talk no action. On Sunday, it was the turn of Don Brash and Michael Reddell who in a shared piece said our problem is our low productivity. No kidding! Every politician says that and none have come up with an answer. Brash and Reddell's only proffered solution is to lower company tax rates to attract overseas and local investment. They claim we have the one of highest company tax rates in the world, which is balderdash. We sit at 28 per cent. Australia at 30, the US and the UK around 26. We're slightly above median and no disrespect to Don Brash, you had terms as a reserve bank governor and leader of a couple of political parties and plenty of opportunities to lift productivity and failed. then there was Sam Stubbs who said if we're selling public assets lets sell them to new Zealanders like super funds so the wealth stays in New Zealand instead of being exported. To me that's the key. Stop saying productivity and start saying wealth creation. find out how to make or supply stuff that the world wants and then keep the profits and the workers in New Zealand, then we start generating wealth and then we recycle it to create more great businesses.. That's Denmark's trick. That's why they operate the second largest container ship operation in the world, to import capital rather than export it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's uncertainty if the Reserve Bank will change tack following the revelation of New Zealand's deep recession. Stats NZ figures out yesterday show GDP fell 1% in the three months to September. It's also revised the preceding quarter down to 1.1% contraction. Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell says it did achieve its goal of bringing inflation under control. He told Heather du Plessis-Allan he doubts they'll ramp up the size of OCR cuts next year in response to the recession. Reddell says it's more likely they'll go ahead with a 50 basis point cut, then tail them off next year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 20th of December, the terrible economic news continues to get worse with the significant GDP drop and New Zealand is officially back in a recession. Liam Lawson has finally been given the Red Bull seat the F1 world knew was already his, so commentator and former McLaren race team member Bob McMurray joined Heather du Plessis-Allan to share his thoughts. Trish Sherson and Tim Wilson joined Heather to Wrap the Year in the final segment of 2024. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist says there's a case for the Reserve Bank cutting the Official Cash Rate by 75 basis points. The Reserve Bank will release its latest decision today. It's widely expected to cut the rate by 50-basis points from 4.75% to 4.25%. Former reserve bank economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking the Reserve Bank's view of an OCR of 2.5-3% as being neutral is the best guess. He says we genuinely won't know until after we've got there and seen the inflationary consequences, but he thinks we will be at that figure by next August. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 27th of November, the Reserve Bank has their final OCR call today, so will we see relief from that cut? Did you know it's illegal to serve any kind of drink when you are at the hairdressers? A bill has been added to the ballot to remove the law that is baffling hairdressers. Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen talk about the life and legacy of Nikki Kaye, and whether we should have four year terms on Politics Wednesday. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank could still surprise us with this afternoon's Official Cash Rate decision. Interest rates have been falling, with markets pricing in a 50 basis point cut. But former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says the central bank may opt for another option, like a 25 basis point cut. He told Mike Hosking when he was on the Monetary Policy Committee that makes the OCR decision, they always received advice on what the market and economists were expecting. But he says they're never swayed by those decisions, and make their own decisions based on their own forecasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I wanted to start with something that always generates a lot of chat and that is the inevitability about raising the age of eligibility for superannuation and, to a lesser extent the introduction of a capital gains tax. National under Bill English came very, very close to getting the age lifted to 67. It wouldn't have happened until 2040, but it would have happened. So John Key left and came Bill English and managed to get the age of eligibility for super lifted to 67 by 2040, not overnight - by 2040. However. As we know, along came the Labour NZ First Coalition government and they nixed that, and the age of eligibility remains at 65. Despite National and ACT pledging to lift the super age from 65 to 67 during the election campaign, along came NZ First again to form the coalition government and their stance is unequivocal. The age of retirement will remain at 65 years, no ifs, no buts, no maybeys. You can retire at anytime you like, they mean, of course, the age at which you can get the Super. So as long as the coalition government has a New Zealand first component the age will remain at 65, where it has been since eligibility for super was raised progressively from 60 to 65 over a relatively short frame of time, 1992 to 2001. That's not a lot of time for people to adjust. At the moment, 70% of the OECD has a pension age of 65 or lower. Countries are slowly increasing their pension age, but the majority are only moving the age up to 65 over the next four decades. New Zealand Super is critical to the majority of New Zealanders right now who don't have the benefit of a big KiwiSaver fund. If you've been working your whole life and you've been in KiwiSaver your whole life, your retirement will look a little bit different. But at the moment, a lot of New Zealanders have super and super only. 40% of people aged 65 and over have virtually no other income besides New Zealand Super, 20% have just a little bit more, so they are doing it tough. And the reason that the Super and capital gains tax is back in the news is because the outgoing Treasury head says changes are needed to fix the Crown's structural deficit. We need to find new ways of generating revenue and cutting expenditure and that means a capital gains tax and a more efficient superannuation scheme. This is Dr Caralee McLiesh. She's leaving Treasury, and this is part of her exit interview. However, although it makes sense for the age to be raised, as we all live longer and we live more healthy lives, and as KiwiSaver funds become more of a buffer between poverty, at the moment if you're living just on your super, things are tough. If you have your Super and your KiwiSaver, life would look a little bit better. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking this morning he doubts that any government is bold enough to raise the retirement age and bring in a capital gains tax. "Well, I mean, National has campaigned in the last two or three elections for very slowly raising the retirement age. NZ First is the block, they're in absolute no on this. Labour back in 2014 campaigned on it. I think almost everyone recognises, in policy circles, that it's good and sensible and necessary and overdue adjustment. What will enable someone finally to make the move, I'm not sure. Maybe it takes another crisis. Capital gains tax isone of those where there's sort of a lot more, you know, genuine difference of view as to whether it's fair and right and also whether it will raise much revenue. A lot of the capital gains in the last few years have been house price inflation, Chris Bishop tells us that his housing reforms are going to cut house prices so there might not be much revenue there." Michael Reddell, former Reserve Bank economist, talking to Mike Hosking this morning. Of course, most policies that have been put forward looking at a capital gains tax would exempt the family home so house prices are neither here nor there, unless you have a portfolio of them. Labour, of course you'll remember, this is when we last had torrid discussions on a capital gains tax. They had the golden opportunity to introduce one when they were in power, but chose not to do so. There was a recommendation from the Tax Working Group set up by the Coalition Government to introduce a capital gains tax and Jacinda Ardern said no, as long as I'm leader, it's not going to happen. You won't see it while I am leader, it won't be introduced on my watch. I believe in a capital gains tax, it's clear many New Zealanders do not. I am ruling out a capital gains tax under my leadership in the future. That's what Jacinda Ardern said at the time. Of course, NZ First had something to do with it but for years, Labour had campaigned on introducing a capital gains tax, for years and years, their own Tax Working Group said it was a good idea. And then they take ownership of ruling it out entirely, not just until we can get rid of Winston, but entirely. So under the leadership off goes Jacinda Ardern and in comes Chris Hipkins. So there were reformists within Labour who said right now's the time. We don't have to faff around with any other political parties. We don't have to make compromise or concession, now's the time to do it. No, said Chris Hipkins, we need to get elected. We need to get reelected because otherwise it's going to be stink in opposition. So he nixed it as well. It is hard to see when such an opportunity will come again in the near future. I agree. I think it would be very hard for a political party to introduce a capital gains tax now. But the upshot is New Zealand needs to spend less and make more money. Just like our households - spend less, make more money if we want to fund the lifestyle we enjoy. And I just don't think enough people have grasped that yet, we still want all the bells and whistles, we want the cherry on top. We can barely afford the cake, far less the icing and the cherry on top. We have to make cuts somewhere. We have to get revenue from somewhere. Where is it going to be? Raising the age of eligibility for Super is probably a very, very good start. It's been talked about for years. It's been fiddled around with for years. Bill English came very close to getting it in but while NZ First has anything to do with anything, it will remain at 65. And we simply can't afford that, unless we raise taxes so that the people who are turning 65 in the next 10 years will effectively pay for that.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A warning there'll be problems, if no changes are made to superannuation. Outgoing Treasury boss Dr Caralee McLiesh [Cara lee Mick Leesh] has made it clear there's a need for a Capital Gains Tax and changes to super, as the population ages. She points out an increasing share of Government transfers are going to the wealthy. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says [told Mike Hosking] there's a need to increase the age of eligibility. He says however, it could take another crisis for someone in elect policy circles to make the move. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Wednesday, 14 August 2024 -a huge u-turn from the Reserve Bank with a cut to the Official Cash Rate today. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell and ASB boss Vittoria Short speak to Heather about the move. Drug Foundation boss Sarah Helm tells Heather what we know about the meth lollies that were handed out in Auckland mission food packages. The Huddle debates what's going on at Health NZ after commissioner Lester Levy publicly rebuked a suggestion by staff to make doctors and nurses redundant. Plus, why did Barry Soper drop out of his police officer course? Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's the start of a significant turnaround for the economy - as the Reserve Bank slashes the OCR for the first time since 2020. It's dropped the cash rate 25-basis points to 5.25 percent. Former Reserve Bank economist, Michael Reddell says Governor Orr's post-announcement claims about the economy don't stack up. "It's not as if some big event has happened externally, it's just that they badly misread what was going on in the economy - and it's pretty inexcusable." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's the start of a significant turnaround for the economy - as the Reserve Bank slashes the OCR for the first time since 2020. It's dropped the cash rate 25-basis points to 5.25 percent. Former Reserve Bank economist, Michael Reddell says Governor Orr's post-announcement claims about the economy don't stack up. "It's not as if some big event has happened externally, it's just that they badly misread what was going on in the economy - and it's pretty inexcusable." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a predictable move, the OCR remained unchanged.  Yesterday the Reserve Bank announced it would continue to be held at 5.5% and are hinting headline inflation could return to its 3% target in a matter of months.  Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell told Andrew Dickens that the statement was a shift in the right direction.  He said that it was very different in tone from the one they made six weeks ago, in which they had mentioned possible rate hikes later this year and not beginning to cut until August of next year.  It's all over the place, he said, but shifting in the right direction.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank has left the Official Cash Rate where it was as inflation remains higher than target levels.   The OCR remains on hold at 5.5%.  Michael Reddell, a former Reserve Bank economist, told Mike Hosking that there's pretty good reason to think inflation will be coming down pretty sharply this year.  He said that the Reserve Bank itself said they expect to be within the 1-3% range this year, they just want to be certain before making any cuts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The government still 'intends' to deliver tax cuts by July, but won't lock them in until they've got them past their coalition partners. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has agreed with reports the government has a 5.6 billion dollar fiscal hole. A cornerstone promise in National's election campaign was to deliver tax cuts to the tune of around 14 billion dollars over four years. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell was one of three experts who reviewed National's foreign buyer tax policy prior to the election and raised serious concerns about the party's revenue projections. That policy ended up being dumped during coalition negoations. Michael Reddell speaks to Lisa Owen.

An economist says signs on inflation are finally looking more positive.   GDP fell 0.3% in the September quarter, a much worse result than most economists predicted.   The June quarter figures were also revised down from 0.9% to 0.5% growth.   Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell told Tim Dower that the Finance Minister is right in saying New Zealand needs urgent economic repair, and she's inherited a large fiscal deficit.   He says a focus on expenditure restraint is important, and it's not the time for tax cuts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

National's plan to fund tax cuts through a tax on foreign home buyers is proving to be a major sticking point in coalition negotiations. New Zealand First voted for the foreign buyers ban while in coalition with Labour and is flatly opposed to partially rolling it back. That's a big problem for National, which plans to pay for tax cuts with the billions the party says the tax will raise. Michael Reddell is a former Reserve Bank economist and was critical of National's tax plan heading into the election. Reddell spoke to Corin Dann.

Unelected, ideological economists using outdated economics have, in my opinion, over the past 3 years set in motion a chain of events that will cost billions to fix. Considering we can't vote for them, we should be critical of them. Read more here. Michael Reddell [www.croakingcassandra.com]is a former economist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a current economic commentator and blogger.______________________Take The Home Buyers Blueprint: Get a better home; Get a better mortgage.Sign up to the KiwiSaver Millionaire Roadmap: From 6 figures to 7; Get a Rockstar Retirement!Sign up to New Wealth Foundations here: Personal finance from a wealth-builder's perspective.Thanks to Easy Crypto, New Zealand's most trusted crypto brand and what Darcy Ungaro uses.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser)- click on this link.Get SocialSign up to the newsletter!YouTube InstagramTikTok: @theeverydayinvestorwww.nzeverydayinvestor.comInstagramYouTubeDarcy UngaroLinkedInTwitter: @UngaroDarcywww.ungaro.co.nz________________________Affiliate Links!I may receive a financial benefit if you click on these links.HatchSharesiesEasy CryptoSharesight: (Get 5 months free)CMC MarketsRevolut: Sign up, and get a $15 credit.Disclaimer: Please

A former Reserve Bank economist says while inflation is falling, it's still terrible.   CPI rose 5.6% in the year to September, down from 6% in the year to June.   Michael Reddell says he hasn't seen anything which would give him confidence the Reserve Bank is trending towards the 2% target.   He told Mike Hosking that the Reserve Bank shouldn't put a pause on OCR hikes.   Reddell says they should have raised it last month and should raise it in November.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Taxpayer Talk, Taxpayers' Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, sits down with economist Michael Reddell. Michael is a former Head of Financial Markets at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, has worked for central banks of a number of other countries and has been an Alternate Executive Director on the Board of the International Monetary Fund.Michael has recently been raising concerns around the seemingly declining standards in New Zealand public life. Whether it be Ministers (or their appointees) lying to the public, government contracts going to Ministers' family members or undisclosed shareholdings, Michael is concerned that these instances of inappropriate (or at least perceived as being inappropriate) behaviour are becoming increasingly excused, justified or ignored by politicians and the media. Also discussed in the podcast is Michael's concerns around the ease with which politicians have been able to quickly move into highly-paid private sector positions, particularly those in sectors where the Government has a significant influence on their success such as banking. Michael points to the recent example of Sir John Key, the Chairman of New Zealand's largest bank, who was also involved in the National Party election campaign. While he does not say that anyone has acted dishonourably, Mr Reddell says that, for the sake of public trust and integrity, we need systems and processes in place that let the public have confidence that people are behaving appropriately, especially when politicians may be potentially making significant decisions around regulation, or taxpayer-funded bailouts if things go wrong.Michael's blog, Croaking Cassandra, can be read here.To support Taxpayer Talk, click hereIf you have any comments, questions or suggestions, feel free to email podcast@taxpayers.org.nz Support the show

Michael is an independent economic commentator, blogger, and stay-at-home parent. His regular blog, Croaking Cassandra, focused on economics and public policy (especially in New Zealand) and am researching issues relating to New Zealand's longer-term economic performance. Tune in as controversial writer and podcast host, Damien Grant, interviews a wide selection of interesting and entertaining individuals, authors, business people, politicians and anyone else actually willing to talk to him.For more information, or to get in touch, visit the Different Matters Website. 

Plenty to get through this week, kicking off with the report which stemmed from some CoreLogic data, trying to replicate the foreign buyer tax estimates from the National Party's proposal. Michael Reddell's detailed blog, including a bit more detail on international experiences is here. Mapping the market was also updated, providing further evidence of the recovery in values (at a suburb level) so take a look to see what's happening in your area.Elsewhere first home buyers remain active, rental growth continues to increase and net migration is only going in one direction - up.Lastly this week, a thanks to Jason for getting in touch and proposing a couple of useful considerations for anyone wanting to come home from across the ditch. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

National's tax plan debacle is looking more and more like an episode of Grand Designs. A wide-eyed optimistic couple with a big dream. They reckon they've done the numbers and can definitely make it work. But, as time goes on, some people start raising their eyebrows and asking a few questions and the shiny happy people start getting all defensive on it. But then, as we all know, most times we find out that people were right to be raising their eyebrows and the numbers never stack up. Another situation you could compare National's tax plan debacle to is when, again, a wide-eyed optimistic couple with a big dream, fall in love with a half-renovated villa and convince themselves that even though the people selling it have run out of puff, they can turn things around and get the renovation back on track. And again, like the Grand Designs situation, when they start telling other people about their big vision and every Tom, Dick and Harry starts chiming in with their opinion, the wide-eyed couple start to feel under attack because people start telling them what they don't want to hear. Or people start asking tricky questions. People want to know how much they reckon it's going to cost to finish the renovation. They get people pulling holes in their estimates or telling them that, instead of taking on a half-finished villa, they should be doing something less risky and looking for a sensible brick and tile with aluminium joinery. And, again, like on Grand Designs, the wide-eyed couple get sick and tired of people poo-pooing their ideas and they get all defensive and they just don't want to talk about it anymore. Even when they know, in their heart of hearts, that a big part of what they want to do is all wing-on-a-prayer, hoping for the best, it'll all come out in the wash. Because where there's a will, there's a way! Right? Well, that approach might be fine for renovating a house. It's a completely different story, though, when it comes to renovating an economy. And so, yesterday, we had three economists from across the political divide coming out with their analysis of National's tax plan. And they reckon National could be over-cooking the numbers to the tune of nearly $500 million per year. They are former economist Sam Warburton, former Reserve Bank head of financial markets Michael Reddell and Corelogic head of research Nick Goodall. And what they've done, is they've spent hours over the past couple of weeks doing some modelling work on National's plan to tax foreigners buying property here. Which is one way National plans to fund its tax changes. These three economists have looked at three different scenarios and reckon this part of National's plan would be more likely to bring in between $212 million and $286 million per year. A lot less than the $700 million National is saying that it's going to raise. So these experts are saying the gap between National's numbers and their numbers is between $450 million and $520 million a year. Or around $2 billion over the next four years. But National's Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis aren't budging and say they've released all the detail we need to see and we just need to trust them to deliver. Now I've doubted National's numbers on the foreign house buyer thing right from the start. And the numbers that came out yesterday back me up on that. I also think National is overcooking the numbers when it comes to the money it thinks it's going to save on public sector spending. That's because when Christopher Luxon was here the other week, he couldn't tell me when current contracts end for all the consultants and contractors he wants to get rid of. If he doesn't know that, then he has no idea when he can achieve those savings. And then we had Nicola Willis making the big claim this week that she reckons the public service cuts can be made by Christmas. Which means it won't be the consultants that get the chop first. It'll be public service staff who go. The thing is, though - and I didn't always think this would be the case - but I think they're going to get away with this smoke and mirrors behaviour because there seem to be enough people out there who seem to think a change of government is more important than facts. And it's not even people thinking about their own wallets. It's people so obsessed about getting rid of Labour. And the tragedy of all that, is that they even seem to be willing to turn a blind eye to National's smoke and mirrors, if it means getting rid of this current government on October 14. I'm just as tired of the current Labour government as the next person. But where we differ, is that I'm not going to fall for the wing-and-a-prayer promises from National, if it's not going to front up with the facts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three economists have teamed up to scrutinise part of National's tax plan. The party's proposed ending the ban on foreign buyers - for homes worth more than $2 million- and taxing them 15 percent. It expects foreigners will buy 1700 houses valued on average at around $2.9 million. But economist Michael Reddell says it'll be more like 700 in that price range. "That $2 million threshold really does matter, because average house prices - even in Auckland - are well below $2 million. And there just aren't that many really expensive houses in New Zealand." LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three economists have teamed up to scrutinise part of National's tax plan. The party's proposed ending the ban on foreign buyers - for homes worth more than $2 million- and taxing them 15 percent. It expects foreigners will buy 1700 houses valued on average at around $2.9 million. But economist Michael Reddell says it'll be more like 700 in that price range. "That $2 million threshold really does matter, because average house prices - even in Auckland - are well below $2 million. And there just aren't that many really expensive houses in New Zealand." LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The National Party's tax plan has an enormous hole in it, according to analysis by economists from both sides of the political spectrum. Their concerns centre on the proposed foreign home buyers tax - which National is relying on to raise $740 million a year. But using real estate data from Corelogic, the economists Michael Reddell, Sam Warburton and Nick Goodall, have calculated that revenue will fall short by 60 to 70 percent. Kathryn speaks with Sam Warburton and Corelogic's Nick Goodall.

Economists across the political spectrum have found the National Party's tax plan has an enormous hole in it. Their concerns centre on the proposed foreign home buyers tax - which National is relying on to raise $740 million a year. But using real estate data from Corelogic, the economists have calculated that revenue will fall short by some 60 to 70 percent. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell is one of those economists. Riddell spoke to Corin Dann.

The economic slowdown is likely to be having a major impact on the Government's books.  Treasury is releasing its Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update at 1pm, the final fiscal update before Advanced Voting begins in two weeks.  It's expected to show revenue is lower and debt is higher than forecast in May's Budget.  Economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking that New Zealand now has a very high fiscal deficit.  He says while our debt is below the OECD average, it's much higher than it's been in the past.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An economic commentator says Labour's economic policy is big on aspiration, but lacks specifics and understanding. Their five-point election plan to grow the economy includes the PM heading to India in the first 100 days to foster relations. It would also invest $100 million in agri-tech and boosting tourism. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says it doesn't deal with the big issues we're facing. "The word inflation appears once, never about bringing inflation down. The fiscal plan just says- we'll run a surplus sometime in the future." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist says the Official Cash Rate may not be able to be halted for long. The central bank will give its latest update today, with economists predicting it will stay at 5.5 percent. At its last review the bank expected it to remain at a restrictive level for some time. But Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking you could make a credible case for at least signalling the prospect of some more tightening now, or in the next two or three months.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist says the Official Cash Rate may not be able to be halted for long. The central bank will give its latest update today, with economists predicting it will stay at 5.5 percent. At its last review the bank expected it to remain at a restrictive level for some time. But Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking you could make a credible case for at least signalling the prospect of some more tightening now, or in the next two or three months.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist's dampening worries about a deterioration in the Government coffers. Treasury's latest Crown accounts show the tax take for the 11 months to May was $2.2 billion lower than expected. Meanwhile, debt is more than $5 billion dollars greater than anticipated. Michael Reddell says we shouldn't overdo concerns - and forecasting is a tough game. "So it's weaker than expected, but the big uncertainties that people are grappling with is- how quickly is the monetary policy tightening going to bite?" LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist's dampening worries about a deterioration in the Government coffers. Treasury's latest Crown accounts show the tax take for the 11 months to May was $2.2 billion lower than expected. Meanwhile, debt is more than $5 billion dollars greater than anticipated. Michael Reddell says we shouldn't overdo concerns - and forecasting is a tough game. "So it's weaker than expected, but the big uncertainties that people are grappling with is- how quickly is the monetary policy tightening going to bite?" LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The looming recession could cut deeper than previously thought. ASB is now forecasting the economy will shrink by about two-percent by early next year, double the contraction it was forecasting three months ago. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says its a plausible prediction. He told Tim Dower every time the Reserve Bank tries to significantly reduce inflation, it's a recipe for recession. Reddell says every time inflation has been brought down so quickly in the past, it's led to a recession, usually a severe one. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The looming recession could cut deeper than previously thought. ASB is now forecasting the economy will shrink by about two-percent by early next year, double the contraction it was forecasting three months ago. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says its a plausible prediction. He told Tim Dower every time the Reserve Bank tries to significantly reduce inflation, it's a recipe for recession. Reddell says every time inflation has been brought down so quickly in the past, it's led to a recession, usually a severe one. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A U-turn of sorts from the Government. About 1.4 million New Zealanders will be helped when increased main benefits, superannuation and student support payments increase in line with inflation. They'll rise from next month, alongside Childcare Assistance income threshold increasing. Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking a few years ago the Government changed from indexing benefits to inflation, to wages. He says this year, wages rose less than inflation, so they switched back. Reddell says permanently lifting the real level of welfare benefits is costing another $300 million. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A U-turn of sorts from the Government. About 1.4 million New Zealanders will be helped when increased main benefits, superannuation and student support payments increase in line with inflation. They'll rise from next month, alongside Childcare Assistance income threshold increasing. Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking a few years ago the Government changed from indexing benefits to inflation, to wages. He says this year, wages rose less than inflation, so they switched back. Reddell says permanently lifting the real level of welfare benefits is costing another $300 million. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fears a positive economic result could yield a negative one down the track. Our GDP grew two percent in the three months to September, blowing most economist predictions out of the water. But former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says he's suspicious of the result and wonders if it will be revised to a lower rate. He told Tim Dower it could be a problem next year. Reddell says it will increase the chances of a recession next year,  because the Reserve Bank will have to act more strongly to tackle inflation. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fears a positive economic result could yield a negative one down the track. Our GDP grew two percent in the three months to September, blowing most economist predictions out of the water. But former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says he's suspicious of the result and wonders if it will be revised to a lower rate. He told Tim Dower it could be a problem next year. Reddell says it will increase the chances of a recession next year,  because the Reserve Bank will have to act more strongly to tackle inflation. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank's Covid-era money printing scheme has officially ended as of today. Banks will no longer be able to borrow newly printed money from the Reserve Bank via its Funding for Lending Programme (FLP). Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell was among the many experts criticising The Reserve Bank for keeping this program going as they aim to tackle inflation. "This was set up as a crisis management program at a time when the Bank was worried that we couldn't take the OCR negative. It should have been called to a halt a long time ago. They were under no legal obligation to make a rhetorical commitment. " LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is further criticism over the government's move to reappoint Reserve Bank Governor, Adrian Orr. National says there should have been a review before the decision was made. Speaking to Tova O'Brien, former Reserve Bank Economist, Michael Reddell said it is time for Orr to go.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist has laid into Adrian Orr's reappointment as Reserve Bank Governor. He'll spend another five years in the role, after the unanimous recommendation from the central bank's board. Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking he wouldn't have given him the job. He suggests he's fundamentally unfit for the job, from his personality and style, to the way his focus has been distracted onto other things, and the inflation figures. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist has laid into Adrian Orr's reappointment as Reserve Bank Governor. He'll spend another five years in the role, after the unanimous recommendation from the central bank's board. Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking he wouldn't have given him the job. He suggests he's fundamentally unfit for the job, from his personality and style, to the way his focus has been distracted onto other things, and the inflation figures. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

All eyes are on the Reserve Bank - for its next moves on our high inflation. The latest Consumers Price Index reveals inflation's at 7.2 percent - confounding economists prediction of a drop to below seven. Some thought it'd go as low as 6.3. Former Reserve Bank economist, Michael Reddell says that forecasting inflation can be a mug's game, because things move around so much. Australia's inflation rate is sitting at 6.1 percent, and economists there expect a rise to 6.9 next week. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economists are trying to read between the lines of the Reserve Bank's latest decision on the Official Cash Rate. The central bank has hiked the OCR by another 50 basis points to 3.5 percent. Some of its comments have left the market in no doubt that it's taking a tougher, more hawkish, stance on inflation. Former Reserve Bank economist  Michael Reddell told Tim Dower the comments are interesting. “They clearly are concerned about inflation, they should be, it's really important we get on top of things. The big issue is how much of a tightening in total is needed to get there.” LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economists are trying to read between the lines of the Reserve Bank's latest decision on the Official Cash Rate. The central bank has hiked the OCR by another 50 basis points to 3.5 percent. Some of its comments have left the market in no doubt that it's taking a tougher, more hawkish, stance on inflation. Former Reserve Bank economist  Michael Reddell told Tim Dower the comments are interesting. “They clearly are concerned about inflation, they should be, it's really important we get on top of things. The big issue is how much of a tightening in total is needed to get there.” LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In Australia their treasurer Jim Charles says they need to have a national discussion about how to pay for Government spending. Yes, their budget deficit was $50 billion dollars lower than forecast but Chalmers says that won't be the case going forward and they'll be constrained to "bread and butter" spending. So if they are going to have the talk, do we need to as well? Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell joins me now. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you're keen to build new wealth in the new world we're heading into, I think we should be talking more about the rules of the game? Today, I'm having a conversation with someone extremely well qualified in the area of central banking. Michael Reddell has spent over 30 years doing economic analysis and policy advice at various places including our very own Reserve Bank, where he ran a number of areas, including Head of Financial Markets, he was responsible for monetary policy implementation, foreign reserves management, and the analysis of financial system risks. I'm wondering if separation between the RBNZ and our government, is only the starting point for anyone curious about what's going on with the people behind the green curtain. What if the RBNZ is effectively just a branch of a form of unelected government that's engaged in a type of currency war hidden in plain sight which flies straight over most of our heads? Note: The opinions expressed in today's introduction are designed to get you to think - I cannot say these are the views shared by my guest and to be honest, I'm not sure these views are all that well informed yet either. https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CZ3LM5N (Ask me anything, suggest a topic, or a guest!) _______________________ Hey! Like what you've heard today? I'm on a mission to help improve levels of wealth for everyday Kiwi's. After all, it's good to build wealth...right? Here's some ways you can get alongside the NZ Everyday Investor - no pressure, but I'd appreciate any help you could offer: Use the following referral/affiliate links Hatch: https://app.hatchinvest.nz/share/uqhcj8y8. $10 for you, and $10 for me, if you sign up and deposit $100NZD. Sharesies: https://sharesies.com/r/RRPR6X. $10 for you, and $10 for me, if you sign up for the first time with them. Easy Crypto: easycrypto.com/nz?ref=19599. One of NZ's most trusted places to buy/sell your digital assets.  Share this Spotify link with your friends: https://open.spotify.com/show/0MA6EGur387YT1ENKIffMx?si=b1C28fV7TmWib8qXnZLDoA _________________________________________________________ So what's next for you? Well, you may want to consider the following... 1 - Write a review on https://www.facebook.com/TheNZEverydayInvestor/ (Facebook), or your favorite podcast player 2 - https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CZ3LM5N (Ask me anything, suggest a topic!) 3 - To catch the live episodes, please ensure https://ungaro.co.nz/nzeverydayinvestor/ (you have subscribed to us on Youtube):  4- https://ungaro.co.nz/nzeverydayinvestor/ (Sign up to our newsletter here) Please ensure that you act independently from any of the content provided in these episodes - it should not be considered personalised financial advice for you. This means, you should either do your own research, taking on board a broad range of opinions, or ideally, consult and engage a financial adviser to provide guidance around your specific goals and objectives. If you would like to enquire around working with Darcy (financial adviser), you can schedule in a free 15 min conversation just https://calendly.com/ungaro/15min (click on this link)

Annual inflation has hit 6.9%... The highest figure in 30 years.  The number wasn't as bad as some economists feared. Finance Minister Grant Robertson said if the government hadn't cut the fuel excise tax, inflation could have been worse. Michael Reddell, a former Reserve Bank economist, joined Andrew Dickens. LISTEN ABOVE 

Michael Reddell | Tiny Habits Big Goals | Friday Morning Drive by Douglas Elliman

Dipping our toes into the world of podcasting, we look at whether it would be possible and/or desirable to engineer a housing market correction.That means a deliberate move by the government, with the cooperation of the Reserve Bank, local government and banks, to push house prices down.Such a move would require a government prepared to see house prices fall by a significant amount.We look at why homeownership is desirable, whether it would be possible to engineer a housing market correction, whether it would be desirable to do so, whether a housing market correction could be controlled, and whether homeowners who would be hardest hit by a correction could be compensated.

The sound of flapping you hear in the air is the sound of all our chickens coming home to roost. Treasury's most recent analysis of the Government's long term finances sees the country facing an interminable cycle of debt and deficits, with debt levels rising to more than two trillion dollars in 40 years if it doesn't get the costs of an ageing population under control. The cost increases will be driven by the cost of healthcare and superannuation, which will both increase under the weight on an ageing population. In 20 years, life expectancy for women has risen two and a half years; for men, it's three and a half years.  And that's only going to keep going up. There was much more bad news from Treasury - the cost of government spending will swell to 43 per cent of the economy, tax revenue won't keep up, debt will be five times larger than it is today, putting us on a par with the Greece of today, but let's not dwell too much on the gloomy. They are only projections and things can change, but we really do have to talk about raising the age of superannuation entitlement, and we need to do it sooner rather than later. Both National and Labour have talked about raising the age, and according to former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell on the Mike Hosking Breakfast, someone is going to have to go into an election saying we are going to put the retirement age up.Who will pull the trigger?We simply have to.  And I know that there are plenty of hard working people who are simply knackered by the age of 65. They have worked hard physical jobs, their bodies are worn out and all they want is a few years where they can go fishing or pootle round the country in a camper van doing the things they never had time to do while they were slaving away in all weather and every condition. So let people access their Kiwisavers at 65 or even earlier, and have the super kick in at 67 or 68. Australia has moved the pension age to 67 from 2023, Denmark its's 67 from 2027, in the UK 65 to 66 years by 2026, to 67 years by 2036, and to 68 years by 2046.  You get the drift.  Everyone is seeing the writing on the wall.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has proposed giving himself new powers over bank lending.This morning, Robertson revealed the details of the Deposit Takers Bill, which includes details of deposit protection in the event that a bank collapses, with the Government guaranteeing deposits of up to $100,000 per eligible institution.While the Government has long signalled plans around deposit protection, Thursday's release revealed that Cabinet has agreed to a new process for setting lending restrictions, such as loan-to-value ratios, moving some degree of powers from the Reserve Bank to the Beehive."This will give the Minister of Finance a role in determining which types of lending the Reserve Bank is able to directly restrict. The Reserve Bank will then have full discretion to decide which instrument is best suited to use and how the restrictions are applied," Robertson said."As with other prudential requirements, lending standards policies will be subject to more general requirements such as consultation with other government agencies and the public, and the Reserve Bank needing to have regard to the Minister of Finance's Financial Policy Remit."Currently, the Reserve Bank has the sole discretion over restricting bank lending.One economist immediately warned the move appeared to "seriously" undermine the operational independence of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand."The heavy hand of the Government is coming down in multiple areas," independent economist Cameron Bagrie said.Bagrie said while the central bank had operational independence, it resides at the discretion of the Government of the day."If this is for real, that independence looks as if it's being seriously undermined," Bagrie said."The Reserve Bank has got a financial stability objective. If you get the Minister of Finance or other entities wading in on who you can lend to and who you can't, suddenly the financial stability objective becomes somewhat secondary to a political one."A former top Reserve Bank official said he welcomed more political involvement in setting regulatory direction but said the changes were badly expressed.Michael Reddell, a former special advisor at the Reserve Bank said the move on lending restrictions appeared to be a "slightly curious step, in broadly the right direction"."This seems to be saying 'you can regulate lending to investors but not first home buyers, or lending to home owners but not farmers', and that does seem a bit odd," Reddell said.Reddell was of the belief that the moves did not go far enough, as major uses of policy should be decided by ministers because "only ministers are accountable for this sort of stuff that directly affects firms and households".It would have been more sensible if the changes were expressed as giving the minister power to determine what sort of regulatory restrictions the bank can use, but that the Reserve Bank remained operationally independent in how these apply to individual institutions."It looks like a loose step in the right direction of saying 'this is something Ministers should have more say over', but it looks badly expressed," Reddell said.The case for Reserve Bank independence was strong on areas where there was broad agreement, such as inflation targeting, as most people both believed that low, stable inflation was good, and it was also easy to measure."For other things, the standard textbooks on regulator intervention say 'if you can't clearly specify a goal, then you can't sensibly delegate these powers to an independent agency'. You want to keep those powers at a political level, because the politicians are the only people that you can hold accountable in the broad sense for the use of those powers."Protection level raisedRobertson said the measures on deposit protection, part of a review of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act, "have been the subject of extensive consultation" and "will help protect New Zealand's financial system and wider economy from damage that...

The run of low interest rates continues with the Reserve Bank yesterday, as expected, holding the official cash rate at a record low 0.25 percent. The central bank says its bond buying programme - a means of printing money - and its cheap loans to banks will continue unchanged, and it's ready to cut the official cash rate if needed. The Reserve Bank's bond buying programme, of up to 100 billion dollars, is its key means of supporting economic stimulus alongside low interest rates, a strategy matched by central banks around the world. But the huge stimulus in response to the pandemic is also driving up asset prices such as real estate and shares, severely impacting the cost of housing. Kathryn speaks with Michael Reddell, the former Reserve Bank economist and Dr Michael Rehm, senior lecturer in property at the University of Auckland Business School.

The Reserve Bank has said thanks, but no thanks, to Finance Minister Grant Robertson's specific suggestion on how the central bank could take a more active role in cooling house prices.Instead, he told Robertson that if the Government wants to address New Zealand's housing issues, it needs to create a new housing agency."There is a need for a single agency or 'clearing house' to co-ordinate the Government's response across agencies," Orr said.He has also requested that the Government gives the Reserve Bank further powers when it comes to stopping those with high levels of debt from buying more assets, such as more houses.This includes making debt-to-income limits a permanent part of the Reserve Bank's toolbox next year.Orr this morning posted the Reserve Bank's full response to Robertson's November 24 letter, where he sought Orr's views on how the RBNZ could help "address the issue of rising house prices".It is a highly detailed response but a main focus was Orr telling Robertson the Government already has the tools it needs to stabilise the housing market."Solutions to any identified problem of high house prices or housing affordability require the involvement of many government portfolios and agencies, as well as non-government participants."In fact, he said the Reserve Bank was just one out of 17 main players when it comes to New Zealand's housing market."Government agencies already have a wide range of levers that could be used to address housing issues."One such lever includes "tax policy" – but Orr does not detail what changes should be made.Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell told Heather du Plessis-Allan it would take at least a year to set a new agency up and let it find its feet."The pressure should be on the existing agencies that are there who know what the real issuesare."He said the last thing that is needed is another Government agency. In response to Orr's letter, Robertson said in a statement: "I thank the Governor for his response and will consider it, along with the advice I have requested from the Treasury. The Government will make announcements in the New Year."Although Orr put some of the onus to New Zealand's housing issues back on the Government, Orr does suggest a way the Reserve Bank could help.But he pushes back against one option Robertson had lightly mooted in his letter last month.Robertson said an option was for the Reserve Bank's remit to be changed so the bank takes house prices into consideration when formulating monetary policy, such as setting the interest rates.But Orr has warned against this option, saying there are "strong reasons" as to why it would not work and there could be a number of adverse trade-offs.These, according to the letter, could include lower employment – specifically for Māori, Pasifika, women, and youth – as well as lowering the supply of housing."There are strong reasons why it would be unlikely to result in significant policy changes."But Orr has outlined what he describes as his "preferred option" as to how the Reserve Bank could get involved, when it comes to cooling the housing market.He said a new "house price consideration" could be added to one of its current responsibilities – its "financial stability" obligations.This would mean the Government would be able to specifically direct the bank in regards to a specific Government policy.This would allow for a whole-of-Reserve Bank response to housing market issues and would mean the Reserve Bank could target the "specific drivers" of the housing market, Orr said."If you wish to strengthen the Reserve Bank's role in relation to house prices, our recommendation is that this would be best achieved by amending our financial policy remit."text by Jason Walls, NZ Herald

In this episode of Taxpayer Talk, Taxpayers' Union Research Officer Islay Aitchison interviews economist Michael Reddell on monetary and fiscal policy. Michael Reddell's blog, Croaking Cassandra, can be found here. Support the show (http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/donate)

Kerre McIvor looks at a piece written by The Spectator's Kate Andrews, " The Magic Money Tree - What can Possibly go wrong?" The UK government is being kept financially afloat through money printed by the Bank of England and the sums are vast.The magic money tree can't keep blossoming forever and questions are being asked as to how long this artificial market can continue.  Is the same thing happening here in New Zealand? Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell joins Kerre with analysis of the New Zealand economy. 

Michael Reddell is a former Board member of the IMF, and Head of Financial Markets at the RBNZ. He sits down with Jordan Williams and Joe Ascoft to discuss his recent and radical proposal for government intervention and taxpayer-funded support for the duration of the COVID-19 downturn.Michael blogs at https://croakingcassandra.com the proposals referred to are available here: https://croakingcassandra.com/2020/03/16/a-radical-macro-framework-for-the-next-year-or-two/Support the show (http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/donate)