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Latest podcast episodes about mike wilson

Locked On Vols
Preview Friday: Chris Lee of Rivals Vandy checks in to Preview the Vols & Commodores

Locked On Vols

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2021 39:01


The Locked On Vols podcast is your daily show covering Tennessee Volunteers football and basketball with Eric Cain. Friday's show gets you set for game day as we preview Tennessee & Vanderbilt. Chris Lee of Vandysports,com joins in for segment two and Mike Wilson of KnoxNews checks in for a segment three conversation on Tennessee hoops. All that and more on a Friday Locked on Vols. Be sure to participate in #TwitterTuesday by tweeting @LockedonVols or @_Cainer all your questions. Tuesday's show will answer them! DMs are open. Follow the show on those Twitter accounts and also on host Eric Cain's Facebook page: CainerOnAir. And every Friday is 5 Star Friday here on Locked on Vols! Head over to Apple Podcasts and leave a positive review + a 5 star rating and we'll shout you out each and every Friday! Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! SweatBlock Get it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS. Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order. BetOnline AG There is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Rock Auto Amazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ A special shoutout to James Manning (@GooseManning5) for his assistance in graphic design. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: 2022 Equity Outlook Feedback and Debates

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 4:00


With the release of our outlook for the coming year comes a cycle of feedback and debates from clients and investors. We look at those discussions around equity markets, valuations, and more in 2022.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, November 22nd at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. Last week, we published our outlook for 2022 and spent a lot of time discussing it with investors. This week, we share feedback from those conversations where there is agreement and pushback. Our first observation is that there wasn't as much engagement as usual. Part of this may be due to the fact that our general view hasn't changed all that much, leaving us with an unexciting overall price target for the main U.S. indices. We also sense there's a bit of macro fatigue setting in, with many investors struggling to generate alpha in what appears to be a runaway bull market for the S&P 500 - the primary U.S. equity benchmark for most asset managers. This lines up with one of our key messages for the upcoming year - focus on the micro and pick stocks if you want to outperform. As the economic recovery matures, more companies are struggling with the imbalances created by the pandemic. To us, this generally means focus on earnings stability and superior execution skills as key factors when identifying winning stocks from here. Going back to our conversations, there's a broad agreement with our more recent tactical view that U.S. equity markets are ahead of the fundamentals, but they can stay elevated in the near-term given incredibly strong flows from retail, systematic strategies and buybacks. Furthermore, pressure to keep up with the benchmarks is curtailing willingness to de-risk early. While there are signs of deterioration under the surface with many individual companies suffering from inflation pressures, supply bottlenecks and even demand destruction in some cases, the S&P 500 earnings forecasts are still moving higher, albeit at a slower pace. More specifically, we are witnessing weak breadth as the major averages make new highs. Most clients feel that in the absence of an outright decline in earnings forecasts, seasonal strength can maintain the market's elevated levels and there's no reason to fight it. Having said that, while there is agreement valuations are currently rich, the primary push back to our outlook for next year is that we are too bearish on valuation. While many investors we speak with think 2022 will be more challenging than this year, most still expect US equity indices to deliver 5-10% returns over the next year, while we project flat to slightly down returns in our base case. The primary difference of opinion is on valuation, which appears vulnerable, in our view, to tightening financial conditions and a more uncertain range of outcomes in the economy and earnings over the next 6 months, and that should lead to higher risk premiums or lower valuations. The other key debate with clients center on the strength of the US consumer. Recent macro data like retail sales, and micro data from strong consumer earnings in the third quarter, suggests that consumers remain ebullient into the holidays. This is very much in line with the survey that we published two weeks ago - the same survey that suggests this strength may not be sustainable into next year due to weakening personal financial conditions from higher inflation. Our analysis and comparison of the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence surveys appear to support a deterioration into next year - a key reason we are underway the consumer discretionary sector despite strength into the holidays. Bottom line, U.S. equity markets have delivered another stellar year of returns, which is typical in the second year of an economic recovery. However, given the speed of this recovery and record returns over the prior 18 months, we thought it was prudent to reduce our equity exposure back in early September. While our timing on that risk reduction was wrong, higher prices, driven mostly by higher valuations, only make the risk/reward for 2022 worse, not better. In short, stick with larger cap, higher quality stocks at reasonable valuations. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: In 2022, Stock Picking May Lead

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2021 4:05


Coming out of a year marked by greater uncertainty and volatility, 2022 is poised to be a year which favors single stock investing over a focus on style and sector.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, November 15th at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. 2021 has been another very good year for U.S. equity indices. What's been different in 2021 is the higher volatility under the surface with greater dispersion of returns between individual stocks. This fits very nicely with our overall mid-cycle transition narrative, with one major exception - valuations. Typically, by this stage of an economic recovery from recession equity valuations would have normalized, particularly with the earnings recovery being even more dramatic than usual. In short, while our sector and style preferences in stock picking was strong in 2021, our S&P 500 price target proved to be too low - in other words, wrong. We think this is more about timing rather than an outright rejection of our fundamental framework or narrative. With financial conditions now tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indices looks unattractive at current prices. More specifically, we expect solid earnings growth again in 2022 offset by lower valuations. However, strong nominal GDP growth should continue to provide plenty of good investment opportunities at the stock level. In our view, the economic and political environment has been permanently altered from its pre-COVID days, although the changes are not necessarily due to the pandemic itself. What that means from an investment standpoint is higher nominal GDP growth led by higher inflation, which is the only way out from our over indebtedness in the longer term. Such an outcome should lead to greater investment and higher productivity, but it will take years for that to play out. In the meantime, we will have to deal with the excesses created by the extreme nature of this recession and recovery. That breeds higher uncertainty and dispersion, making stock picking more important than ever in the year ahead. While our primary theme for 2022 is to focus more on stocks than sectors and styles, one can't ignore them either. We go into the year-end favoring earnings stability and stocks with undemanding valuations, given our view for a tougher operating environment and higher long term interest rates. This puts us overweight Healthcare, Real Estate, Financials and reasonably priced Software stocks. We are also more constructive on Consumer and Business Services. With our expectation for payback in demand from this year's overconsumption, we are underweight Consumer Discretionary Goods, Tech Hardware and commodity-oriented Semiconductors that are prone to double ordering and cancelations. Small cap stocks have done better recently on the back of newly proposed tax legislation that is much less onerous to smaller domestic companies. However, that is simply the removal of a negative rather than an additional positive for earnings and cash flow. It does nothing to ease the burden of what may be one of the most difficult operating environments for small businesses in decades. In short, we favor large caps over small, especially after the nice seasonal run in a smaller cohort. Finally, the obsession over value versus growth should fade as there is no clear winner, in our view, over the next year, but rather trading opportunities like during 2021. Value and growth have each had periods during which they have done considerably better than the other over the past year. But year-to-date they are neck and neck. We do have a slight bias for value over growth for the rest of the year as interest rates move higher, but this is more of a trading position rather than an aggressive investment view we had coming out of the recession in 2020. Expect our bias to flip flop in 2022 like this year, as macro uncertainty reigns. Although strategy is a macro endeavor, with stock dispersion remaining high due to uncertainty around inflation, supply chains and policy, we will focus even more on specific relative value ideas, rather than the index, over the next year. We wish you all good fortune in 2022. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The 440
Jon Hutton: What makes Titans culture successful?

The 440

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2021 13:11


The 440 is built by The Kingston Group

Zone Podcasts
Blaine and Mickey 11-9-21 Hour One: Mike Wilson talks Vols win over UK, Hoops

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2021 40:41


Mike Wilson talks Vols win over UK, hoops season starting + Odell has a preferred destination

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: Inflation Causes Mixed Signals

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2021 4:28


As we head towards year end, stock and bond markets appear to be sending mixed signals for the year ahead. For investors, the truth could lie somewhere in the middle.----- Transcript -----Welcome to "Thoughts on the Market." I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, November 8th at 2:00PM in New York. So, let's get after it. As we enter the final stretch of the year, various markets appear to be sending very different signals about what to expect over the next year. Let's start with Bonds where the longer-term yields have fallen sharply over the past few weeks. In fact, the moves have been so dramatic, several leading macro funds had their worst month on record in October. Some of this move is due to the fact that these same investors were all short bonds as central banks were expected to begin the long process of tightening monetary policy, perhaps faster than what was priced a few months ago. The reason for this view was very simple: inflation has proven to be much higher than the central banks expected, and they would be forced to respond to that development by raising rates sooner than what they might prefer to do. Indeed, over the past few months, many central banks around the world have raised rates while others have begun to taper asset purchases and even end them altogether. In other words, these traders were correct in their fundamental assessment of what was about to happen, but long-term rates went down instead of up. While the extreme positioning clearly played a role in the magnitude of the move in longer term rates, the fundamental question is why did they fall at all? One possible reason is the bond market may be discounting what we have been talking about on this podcast for weeks—that the first half of next year is likely to see a material slowing in both economic and earnings growth as fiscal stimulus from this year wears off. Furthermore, with the legislative process breaking down on the Build Back Better program, that risk has only increased. It also means less issuance of Treasury securities which directly helps the supply and demand imbalance many macro and bond traders were expecting as the Fed begins to taper asset purchases this month. On the other side of the spectrum has been stocks. Here, we have seen higher prices for the major indices almost every day for the past 5 weeks, suggesting growth next year is not only going to be fine but may be understated by analysts. Stocks may also be taking the lower interest rates as good news for valuations. After all, much of the correction in September was due to lower valuations as the markets started to worry about central banks tightening and rates moving higher. On that score, price/earnings multiples in the US have risen by 7.5% over the past 5 weeks, one of the largest rises we've ever witnessed in such a short period of time. Such a rise in P/Es like this usually happen for one of two reasons: either the market thinks earnings estimates are about to go up a lot or interest rates are going to fall. The conflict here is that better growth is not compatible with lower rates. A valid explanation for the divergence could be that the potential failure of Build Back Better means no new corporate taxes. So, while the economy may be hurt by this legislative delay it could be friendly to earnings. In keeping with our narrative over the past month, we think the main reason for the divergence in messaging between stock and bond markets can be explained by the fact that retail and other passive inflows to equity markets continue at a record pace. It's also the seasonal time of the year when institutional investors are loathe to leave the party early for fear of missing out and falling behind their benchmarks, something that they have had a harder time keeping up with this year. On that score specifically, the S&P 500, the key benchmark in the US market, has once again outperformed the average stock. This is a very different outcome from 2020 when the average stock did better than the index. What this really means is that the index can diverge from its fundamental value for a while longer. Bottom line is that major indices can grind higher into the holidays. However, it will get more difficult after that if we're right about growth disappointing next year as rates eventually stabilize at higher levels from central banks tightening. In that environment, we continue to favor companies with reasonable expectations and valuations. We think healthcare, banks and some of the more non-cyclical technology companies in the software and services subsectors offer the best risk-reward. On the other side of the ledger, we would avoid consumer goods and cyclical technology companies that will see the biggest payback in demand next year. Thanks for listening! If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Thoughts on the Market
Special Encore: Clear Skies, Volatile Markets

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2021 4:07


Original Release on October 11th, 2021: As the weather chills and we head towards the end of the mid-cycle transition, the S&P 500 continues to avoid a correction. How long until equities markets cool off?----- Transcript -----In case you missed it, today we are bringing you a special encore release of a recent episode. We'll be back tomorrow with a brand new episode. Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, October 11th at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So, let's get after it. With the turning of the calendar from summer to fall, we are treated with the best weather of the year - cool nights, warm days and clear skies. In contrast, the S&P 500 has become much more volatile and choppy than the steady pattern it enjoyed for most of the year. This makes sense as it's just catching up to the rotations and rolling corrections that have been going on under the surface. While the average stock has already experienced a 10-20% correction this year, the S&P 500 has avoided it, at least so far. In our view, the S&P 500's more erratic behavior since the beginning of September coincided with the Fed's more aggressive pivot towards tapering of asset purchases. It also fits neatly with our mid-cycle transition narrative. In short, our Fire and Ice thesis is playing out. Rates are moving higher, both real and nominal, and that is weighing disproportionately on the Nasdaq and consequently the S&P 500, which is heavily weighted to these longer duration stocks. This is how the mid-cycle transition typically ends - multiples compressed for the quality stocks that lead during most of the transition. Once that de-rating is finished, we can move forward again in the bull market with improving breadth. With the Fire outcome clearly playing out over the last month due to a more hawkish Fed and higher rates, the downside risk from here will depend on how much earnings growth cools off. Decelerating growth is normal during the mid-cycle transition. However, this time the deceleration in growth may be greater than normal, especially for earnings. First, the amplitude of this cycle has been much larger than average. The recession was the fastest and steepest on record. Meanwhile, the V-shaped recovery that followed was also a record in terms of speed and acceleration. Finally, as we argued last year, operating leverage would surprise on the upside in this recovery due to the unprecedented government support that acted like a direct subsidy to corporations. Fast forward to today, and there is little doubt companies over earned in the first half of 2021. Furthermore, our analysis suggests those record earnings and margins have been extrapolated into forecasts, which is now a risk for stocks. The good news is that many stocks have already performed poorly over the past six months as the market recognized this risk. Valuations have come down in many cases, even though we see further valuation risk at the index level. The bad news is that earnings revisions and growth may actually decline for many companies. The primary culprits for these declines are threefold: payback in demand, rising costs, supply chain issues and taxes. At the end of the day, forward earnings estimates will only outright decline if management teams reduce guidance, and most will resist it until they are forced to do it. We suspect many will blame costs and even sales shortfalls on supply constraints rather than demand, thereby giving investors an excuse to look through it. As for taxes, we continue to think what ultimately passes will amount to an approximate 5% hit to 2022 S&P 500 EPS forecasts. However, the delay in the infrastructure bill to later this year has likely delayed these adjustments to earnings. The bottom line is that we are getting more confident earnings estimates will need to come down over the next several months, but we are uncertain about the timing. It could very well be right now as the third quarter earnings season brings enough margin pressure and supply chain disruption that companies decide to lower the bar. Conversely, it may take another few months to play out. Either way, we think the risk/reward still skews negatively over the next three months, even though the exact timing of cooler weather is unclear. Bottom line, one should stay more defensive in equity positioning until the winter arrives. Thanks for listening! If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Locked On Vols
Interview Friday: Ramon Foster, Ben McKee & Mike Wilson join the show to talk Vols football and hoops

Locked On Vols

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2021 39:13


The Locked On Vols podcast is your daily show covering Tennessee Volunteers football and basketball with Eric Cain. Friday's show is interview heavy here on a BYE week. We catch up with Ben McKee of Volquest.com in segment one. Next up, it's NFL veteran, VFL and radio host at 104.5 The Zone, friend of the show, Ramon Foster. And we conclude a Friday show talking with Mike Wilson of Knox News on Tennessee hoops. All that and a whole lot more here on a Friday edition of Locked on Vols. Be sure to participate in #TwitterTuesday by tweeting @LockedonVols or @_Cainer all your questions. Tuesday's show will answer them! DMs are open. Follow the show on those Twitter accounts and also on host Eric Cain's Facebook page: CainerOnAir. And every Friday is 5 Star Friday here on Locked on Vols! Head over to Apple Podcasts and leave a positive review + a 5 star rating and we'll shout you out each and every Friday! Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! SweatBlock Get it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS. Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order. BetOnline AG There is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Rock Auto Amazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ A special shoutout to James Manning (@GooseManning5) for his assistance in graphic design. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Zone Podcasts
The Buck Reising Show 10-28-21 Hour One: Colts Analyst Rick Venturi + Mike Wilson Talks Harrison Bailey

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2021 40:18


Indianapolis Colts analyst Rick Venturi joins the Buck Reising Show in hour one discussing amd breaking down the Titans - Colts divisional matchup on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Buck Reising on 104-5 The Zone
The Buck Reising Show 10-28-21 Hour One: Colts Analyst Rick Venturi + Mike Wilson Talks Harrison Bailey

Buck Reising on 104-5 The Zone

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2021 40:18


Indianapolis Colts analyst Rick Venturi joins the Buck Reising Show in hour one discussing amd breaking down the Titans - Colts divisional matchup on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Bakes Takes
Bullish #URNM, #COIN. Bearish #DKNG, #DIS. Get ready to Sell 1/3 #GME!

Bakes Takes

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2021 22:50


Bakes' Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday,    October 23, 2021   :27 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.   1:03 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron's Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don't want to do that, please know that I'll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you'd like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.   Thank you especially Charlie, Justin, Murph from this Luddite.   2:07 Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.   2:26 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.   Bakes' Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions!   2:41 ICLN/Ishares S&P Global Clean Energy—Sell discipline—$21.97, $22.58, $22.18. $22.24 average. $28.24 12/31/21. -21%.   4:25 Solar, wind. No uranium.   5:00 $42.90 12/31/21. $92.98. 116%   Bakes' Take—Let market tell you where to do more research. Uranium is ESG!     6:12 Murph—Big down volume a warning sign. Still respecting 200 dma 434.54 now. Feels, looks tired.   6:54 Surprised Intel/INTC #1 8%+   7:15 Earnings disaster, gap down 11%+.   7:37 Bakes' Take—NVDA, AMD, earnings reports will tell us if enough to keep bull going. I doubt it, but hold this winner for now.   7:58 DKNG/DraftKings—New lows. $48.42, $48.81, $48.75. $48.66 average. $46.52 now. Down volume 63% above normal. Earnings 14 days.   9:25 Bakes' Take--Still avoid. Happy to discuss.   9:33 Cramer's wrong, SELL Disney!   10:25 BUT…Good example for Bakes' Takes+--I will monitor your stocks/ETF's alert you of buy and sell points. What else would you like?   10:59 Coinbase/COIN--$280.61, watch for NH, volume picking up   COIN, week 2, launch pad?   12:22 GME--Close below 200 dma, Sell 1/3.   Bakes' Take-The memes are over, they're all behind me. Part II.                                                                                                         Bakes' Take—Reporters of the Week!   14:02 Business Insider—Lina Batarags https://www.businessinsider.com/china-housing-market-explainer-cost-debt-wealth-evergrande-impact-2021-9?fbclid=IwAR1XXeUaHqn29nGbVHcoKIyXIBd75QzGrTqShGNQ5o_JAhOlXRE1__0q9kU   14:34 Business Insider—Harry Robertson   14:59 Bakes' Take—I am again treating like Covid. Not panicking nor dismissing. Sounds like can be neutral, it can't be bullish. If subscribers in China, I would love to hear your perspective.   Bakes' Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!   15:45 Jim Bianco Crypto bigger then CCP!   Bakes' Take— Newsletters of the Week   Bear Traps Report   17:15 Copper inventories at 47-year lows. Classic Squeeze. Copper could scream.   18:35 Nuclear generates a tenth of world's electricity. Sentiment shifting.   19:58 Six new factors exacerbating inflation.   21:39 Please also subscribe to my Bakes' Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you'd like.   Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.   Have a great week. Bakes   Bakes' Much-needed levity…   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEgLV4lntyg 22:05 20 FUNNIEST Frank Caliendo IMPRESSIONS

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: An Icy Winter for Investors?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2021 4:00


The forecast for inflation still appears hot for both consumers and corporates, but when it comes earnings and economic growth, the outlook looks a bit chilly.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, October 25th at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So, let's get after it.Over the past few weeks, we've discussed the increasing probability for a colder winter, but a later start than previously expected. In other words, our "fire and ice" narrative remains very much intact, but timing is a bit more uncertain for the ice portion. Having said that, with inflation running hot in both consumer and corporate channels, the Fed is expected to formally announce its tapering schedule at next week's meeting with perhaps a more hawkish tone to convince markets they are on the job. In other words, the fire portion of our narrative—higher rates driven by a less accommodative fed spurring multiple compression—is very much in gear and a focus for investors.With so much attention on rising inflation now from both investors and the Fed, we shift our attention to the ice portion of our narrative - meaning the ongoing macro growth slowdown and when we can expect it to bottom and reverse course. As regular listeners know, we've been expecting a material slowdown in both economic and earnings growth amid a mid-cycle transition. The good news is, so does the consensus, with third quarter economic growth forecast coming down sharply. While consensus' fourth quarter GDP forecasts have declined too, it expects growth to reaccelerate from here. This is due to the fact that most have blamed the Delta variant, China's crackdown on real estate or power outages around the world for the economic disappointment in third quarter. The assumption is that all three will get better as we move into year end and 2022.Needless to say, we're not so sure about that assumption, mainly because we think the more important driver of the slowdown has been the mid-cycle transition to slowing growth from post-recession peak growth, an adjustment that's not finished. In our view, would be intellectually inconsistent to think that the mid-cycle transition slowdown won't be worse than normal given the greater than normal amplitude of this entire economic cycle so far. We can't help but recall our position over a year ago when we argued for much faster growth driven by greater operating leverage than normal for earnings. This was directly a result of the record fiscal stimulus that effectively served as government subsidies for corporations. Today, we simply find ourselves in the exact opposite side of the argument relative to consensus, but for the same reasons. Since we believe consensus missed that insight last year, it seems plausible it could be missing it this time on the other side.In short, we think the gross slowdown will be worse and last longer than expected as the payback in demand arrives early next year with a sharp year over year decline in personal disposable income. While many have argued the large increase in personal savings will allow consumption to remain well above trend, it looks to us like personal savings have already been depleted to pre-COVID levels. The run up in stock, real estate and crypto asset prices do provide an additional buffer to savings, however, much of that wealth is concentrated in the upper quartile of the population. At the lower end of the income spectrum, consumer confidence has fallen sharply the past few months, and it's not just due to the Delta variant. Instead, surveys suggest many consumers are worried again about their finances, with inflation increasing at double digit percentages in necessities like food, energy, shelter and health care.Bottom line, the fundamental picture for stocks is deteriorating as the Fed begins to tighten monetary policy and growth slows further into next year. However, asset prices remain elevated as the upper income cohort of retail investors continues to plow money into these same investments. With seasonal trends positive this time of year, institutional investors are forced to chase prices higher. If our analysis is correct, we think this can continue into Thanksgiving, but not much longer. Manage your risk accordingly.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Conscious Professionals
Self-care Is Not Selfish

Conscious Professionals

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 14:15


When others put pressure on you to go somewhere or do something and you feel you can be bothered, it can be right for you to decline, say no, don't give in to the pressure.To be able to perform your role in your life it is crucial you first support yourself.  So you're strong enough to handle external influences of all types.Dr Myke Merrill, Mike Wilson and I, Liz Hargreaves, speak to this challenge.Support the show (https://www.astera.global/join-astera)

Bakes Takes
Good calls on #URNM, #FDX, #SOFI, #COIN, #SPCE, much more...

Bakes Takes

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2021 24:56


Bakes' Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday,    October 16, 2021   :27 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.   ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron's Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don't want to do that, please know that I'll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you'd like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.   Thank you especially Charlie, Justin, Murph from this Luddite.   1:45 Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.   1:58 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.   2:05 Bakes' Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!   Jack—SOFI, FDX, UPS   3:02 Biden, trying to play Santa, Long Beach 24/7, etc.   4:11 $276, $266, average $271 vs. $228, -16%. The sell discipline works. 10x earnings? Don't care. Dead money. Why would you own this? $234 to $250 now resistance.   7:52 UPS Gap down on earnings, 7/27/21, never good, Dead cat bounce maybe to $200 or so, doubt it breaks above. Labor, goods, simply running out of time.   8:48 SOFI--Last week's chart…   SOFI--$18.58, watch for big volume, plug into Google Alerts, $16.41   9:17 Agree with thesis—MS? student loans, restart in January, refi opportunity   Higher rates good for them, NIM widen?   Cross selling. Makes sense   Noto—Chamath, high praise   Compete with Robinhood, crypto?   JPM, etc. sick of fintech eating lunch   10:54 Bakes' Take--$18.58 close! Big volume-yes!   11:03 $16.41 to $19.48,   11:12 33 mil shares short, 4%, not huge, but helpful   11:26 Bakes' Take—I encourage you to let markets point you to opportunity, rather than news, etc.   12:09 Square/SQ—close below 200 dma, big volume, great company, 144 P/E   12:48 SQ—low volume, stalling at resistance. Watch for 50 dma cutting down through 200 dma, then 200 dma turn down.   13:13 Bakes' Take—If you have a DDM you would bet your life on different story. Sell discipline kicked in works very well, if hit new highs so be it.   13:58 BUT…Good example for Bakes' Takes+--I will monitor your stocks/ETF's alert you of buy and sell points. What else would you like?   14:20 Coinbase/COIN--$280.61, watch for NH, volume picking up   Charlie—Virgin Galactic/SPCE   Last week's chart…   15:39 SPCE-space tourism? Not where want to be, Chamath has sold lot of stock   16:17 $23.23 down to $20.29. -14%+   Michael Sheetz, CNBC—Virgin Galactic stock plunges after company delays spaceflight tests to 2022   17:22 SPY—daily, gap down, close below 50, so far low volume rally to underside/resistance, just warning sign for now   18:15 AAPL—ok   18:41 MSFT—ok   19:08 AMZN—ok, Christmas logistics have to hurt   19:39 FB—not ok, but still respecting 200 dma   20:38 GOOGL--ok   20:42 Bakes' Take—20%+ of the SPX, ok, but just ok, again, seems tired, do companies get pass on earnings due to logistics, labor, energy, does not seem transitory   21:15 Bakes' Takes—My Themes/Groups   21:33 URNM--$71, $75, $80 now, likely consolidating base from here to $98, building next launch pad, volume increasing nicely, 96 RS, let THIS winner run!   22:13 Bakes' Take—Will alert you to the next URNM, searching hard   22:36 Bakes' Takes-Gray Swan   23:48 Bakes' Take-Lot of podcasts discussing now. Taiwan, Evergrande, HK, Tech, list keeps growing!   Bakes' Take—Podcasts of the Week!                                                                                                       23:48 Bakes' Take— Will catch up on podcasts, reporters, charts, etc. wanted to address Jack first.   Bakes' Take—Reporters of the Week!   Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!   Bakes' Takes-   Bakes' Take— Newsletters of the Week   Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Ooh La La—   Bakes' Take—   23:54 Please also subscribe to my Bakes' Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you'd like.   Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.   Have a great week. Bakes   24:25 Bakes' Much-needed levity…   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neUaSTSKFZc Official Ron White - I Got Thrown Out of a Bar

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: Retail Investors Continue to Support Valuations

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2021 3:58


With supply chain pressures and rising costs still weighing on markets, retail investors continue to see long term value.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, October 18th at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. Last week, we noted it may take a bit longer for the Ice portion of our Fire and Ice narrative to play out. More specifically, we cited the potential for markets to look through the near-term supply bottlenecks and shortages as temporary. With the Biden administration directing substantial resources toward addressing the problem, that conclusion is even easier to make. Second, the budget reconciliation process has been pushed out and is unlikely to be resolved until later this year. This delays the negative earnings revisions from higher taxes we think have yet to be incorporated into 2022 consensus forecasts. In short, while earnings revisions' breadth is falling from extreme levels, it isn't falling fast enough to cause a deeper correction in the broader index, at least not yet. Perhaps most importantly for the broader index is the fact that retail continues to be a major buyer of the dip. We highlighted a few weeks ago that the correction in September was taking longer to recover than the prior dips this year. In fact, both the primary uptrend and the 50-day moving average had finally been breached on significant volume. Could it be that the retail investor had finally run out of dry powder or willingness to buy the dip? Fast forward to today, and the answer to that question is a definitive “no”. Instead, our data show retail investors remain steadfast in their commitment to buying equities, particularly on down days. Until these flows subside or reverse, the index will remain supported even as the fundamental picture deteriorates. As already noted, earnings revision breadth is rolling over. Some of this is due to higher cost and supply shortages, which investors seem increasingly willing to look through as temporary. We remain more skeptical as the data also supports sustained supply chain pressures, rising costs and the potential for weaker demand than anticipated next year. Last week, our economics team published its latest Business Conditions Index survey, which showed further material deterioration. While most of this decline is due to supply issues, rather than demand, we're not sure it will matter that much in the end if earnings estimates have to come down one way or the other. As part of our mid-cycle transition call, we have been expecting business confidence to cool. We think it's important to note that our survey suggests it's not just manufacturing businesses that are struggling with cost and supply issues. Service businesses are also showing material deterioration in confidence to manage these pressures. Whether and when it proves to be a concern for equity markets remains unknown, but we think it will matter between now and January. Until proven one way or the other, the seasonal path of least resistance for equity markets is flat to higher. Similar to our Business Conditions Index, consumer confidence surveys have also fallen sharply. Like business managers, the consumer appears to be more concerned with rising costs rather than income. Yet, the retail investor continues to aggressively buy the dip. This jibes with the conclusion other investors are making -- that demand remains robust, and we just need to get through these supply bottlenecks and price spikes. One other possible explanation is that individuals are worried about inflation for the first time in decades, and they know it's not temporary. Stocks offer protection against that rise to some degree, and so we may be finally witnessing the great rotation from bonds to stocks that has been predicted for years. While we have some sympathy for that view in the longer term, the near-term remains challenged by the deteriorating fundamentals in our view. In short, we'd like to see both business and consumer confidence improve before signaling the all clear on supply and demand trends. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Blaine and Mickey
Blaine and Mickey 10-18-21 Hour Two: Mike Wilson talks Vols

Blaine and Mickey

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2021 41:11


Mike Wilson had the mustard bottle in his hands.

Zone Podcasts
Blaine and Mickey 10-18-21 Hour Two: Mike Wilson talks Vols

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2021 41:11


Mike Wilson had the mustard bottle in his hands.

FreightCasts
Ship Game EP366 WHAT THE TRUCK?!?

FreightCasts

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2021 54:09


On today's episode Dooner and The Dude are talking to Xeneta CEO and co-founder Patrik Berglund about the data behind the shipping crisis. How long will shippers be battling one another for capacity like contestants in a Squid Game?Ross Kennedy, founder of Fortis Analysis, busts supply chain myths and conspiracy theories.Mike Wilson, CEO at Consolidated Chassis Management, gets us up to date on the state of chassis in the U.S. Just how bad is the shortage?Ryan Schreiber, director of engagement at CarrierDirect, lets us in on what companies have him excited about this year's FreightTech 100. Who's got his vote this year?Plus, White House releases Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force goals; Semi Megachargers spotted at Giga Nevada; coil rolls off back of semi; fast food sends corporate workers to the cash register; and the perfect peanut butter and jelly ratio.Visit our sponsorSubscribe to the WTT newsletterApple PodcastsSpotifyMore FreightWaves Podcasts

What The Truck?!?
Ship Game

What The Truck?!?

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2021 54:09


On today's episode Dooner and The Dude are talking to Xeneta CEO and co-founder Patrik Berglund about the data behind the shipping crisis. How long will shippers be battling one another for capacity like contestants in a Squid Game?Ross Kennedy, founder of Fortis Analysis, busts supply chain myths and conspiracy theories.Mike Wilson, CEO at Consolidated Chassis Management, gets us up to date on the state of chassis in the U.S. Just how bad is the shortage?Ryan Schreiber, director of engagement at CarrierDirect, lets us in on what companies have him excited about this year's FreightTech 100. Who's got his vote this year?Plus, White House releases Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force goals; Semi Megachargers spotted at Giga Nevada; coil rolls off back of semi; fast food sends corporate workers to the cash register; and the perfect peanut butter and jelly ratio.Visit our sponsorSubscribe to the WTT newsletterApple PodcastsSpotifyMore FreightWaves Podcasts

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: Clear Skies, Volatile Markets

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2021 4:01


As the weather chills and we head towards the end of the mid-cycle transition, the S&P 500 continues to avoid a correction. How long until equities markets cool off?----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, October 11th at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So, let's get after it. With the turning of the calendar from summer to fall, we are treated with the best weather of the year - cool nights, warm days and clear skies. In contrast, the S&P 500 has become much more volatile and choppy than the steady pattern it enjoyed for most of the year. This makes sense as it's just catching up to the rotations and rolling corrections that have been going on under the surface. While the average stock has already experienced a 10-20% correction this year, the S&P 500 has avoided it, at least so far. In our view, the S&P 500's more erratic behavior since the beginning of September coincided with the Fed's more aggressive pivot towards tapering of asset purchases. It also fits neatly with our mid-cycle transition narrative. In short, our Fire and Ice thesis is playing out. Rates are moving higher, both real and nominal, and that is weighing disproportionately on the Nasdaq and consequently the S&P 500, which is heavily weighted to these longer duration stocks. This is how the mid-cycle transition typically ends - multiples compressed for the quality stocks that lead during most of the transition. Once that de-rating is finished, we can move forward again in the bull market with improving breadth. With the Fire outcome clearly playing out over the last month due to a more hawkish Fed and higher rates, the downside risk from here will depend on how much earnings growth cools off. Decelerating growth is normal during the mid-cycle transition. However, this time the deceleration in growth may be greater than normal, especially for earnings. First, the amplitude of this cycle has been much larger than average. The recession was the fastest and steepest on record. Meanwhile, the V-shaped recovery that followed was also a record in terms of speed and acceleration. Finally, as we argued last year, operating leverage would surprise on the upside in this recovery due to the unprecedented government support that acted like a direct subsidy to corporations. Fast forward to today, and there is little doubt companies over earned in the first half of 2021. Furthermore, our analysis suggests those record earnings and margins have been extrapolated into forecasts, which is now a risk for stocks. The good news is that many stocks have already performed poorly over the past six months as the market recognized this risk. Valuations have come down in many cases, even though we see further valuation risk at the index level. The bad news is that earnings revisions and growth may actually decline for many companies. The primary culprits for these declines are threefold: payback in demand, rising costs, supply chain issues and taxes. At the end of the day, forward earnings estimates will only outright decline if management teams reduce guidance, and most will resist it until they are forced to do it. We suspect many will blame costs and even sales shortfalls on supply constraints rather than demand, thereby giving investors an excuse to look through it. As for taxes, we continue to think what ultimately passes will amount to an approximate 5% hit to 2022 S&P 500 EPS forecasts. However, the delay in the infrastructure bill to later this year has likely delayed these adjustments to earnings. The bottom line is that we are getting more confident earnings estimates will need to come down over the next several months, but we are uncertain about the timing. It could very well be right now as the third quarter earnings season brings enough margin pressure and supply chain disruption that companies decide to lower the bar. Conversely, it may take another few months to play out. Either way, we think the risk/reward still skews negatively over the next three months, even though the exact timing of cooler weather is unclear. Bottom line, one should stay more defensive in equity positioning until the winter arrives. Thanks for listening! If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morning Drive
Robby & Rexrode: Mike Wilson (10-8-2021)

Morning Drive

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 42:56


Robby Stanley and Joe Rexrode are joined by Mike Wilson to talk some UT Football and how fans are reacting to their blackout uniforms. We have our weekly betting picks with Pigskin Pick em' and previewing this weekends slate of games. 

Zone Podcasts
Blaine and Mickey 10-5-21 Hour One: Urban Meyer Saga

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2021 42:42


Urban Meyer saga + Mike Wilson discusses the Vols blowout over Mizzou.

Blaine and Mickey
Blaine and Mickey 10-5-21 Hour One: Urban Meyer Saga

Blaine and Mickey

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2021 42:42


Urban Meyer saga + Mike Wilson discusses the Vols blowout over Mizzou.

ACC Nation Podcast
Mike Wilson Talks Pitt Panthers Football – ACC Nation Podcast

ACC Nation Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2021 29:14


Estimated reading time: 2 minutes Our mid-week special guest is the Editor of Cardiac Hill. Mike Wilson talks Pitt Panther football. He takes us from an up and down September to what to look for as the schedule fleshes out. The chatter around Kenny Pickett is explored a bit more in detail. We look at his stats and even a recent comparison to Dan Marino. Is Pat Narduzzi sitting on a warm seat? Or, is there something he can do (remember 2018?) to get an extension? Anything seems possible in this division and for that matter, the conference. Wilson provides some analysis of the offense. Then he delves into why the defense is slower on the draw this season. There's a lot to talk about and a narrow window in which to fit it all. Be sure to subscribe to receive the podcast (free). Don't forget to listen to us on ACC Nation Radio or watch the program on YouTube (see the link below). Before you do, take a moment to not only subscribe but rate the show and leave a comment or question. And, if you would, support our efforts with a small donation by using the 'donate' button below. We appreciate it. DONATE Mike Wilson Talks Pitt The Panthers head to Georgia Tech this weekend. Wilson doesn't think there will be much of a home field advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Could it be an exciting and possibly close game? Wilson thinks it could be so keep an eye on this matchup. Where does Pitt rank in the latest ACC Nation Power Poll? A solid win this week against a conference opponent will go a long way toward restoring faith in the Panthers. https://youtu.be/LD0cwh2Way0

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: The Process Matters

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2021 3:56


Our analyst's equity positioning models have held up well and we continue to rely on an understanding of historical cycles as we move through this mid-cycle transition. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, September 27th, at 11:30a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best. The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we're an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid-cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical, economic and market cycles. The final component we spend a lot of time studying is price. This is known as technical analysis. Markets aren't always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals - the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages. This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise, with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop. More specifically, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen - decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors at this point is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes already, or not. Speaking of price, equity markets sold off sharply last Monday on concerns about a large Chinese property developer bankruptcy. While our house view is that it likely won't lead to a major financial contagion like the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago, it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters. This means that the growth deceleration we were already expecting could be a bit worse. The other reason equity markets were soft early last week had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plan to taper asset purchases later this year, and perhaps even moving up the timing of rate hikes. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint, as they essentially told us to expect the taper to begin in December. The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering - by mid 2022. This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and increases the odds for a rate hike in the second half of '22. After the Fed meeting on Wednesday, equity markets rallied as bonds sold off sharply. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in two days and are now up 31bps in just eight weeks. That's a meaningful tightening of financial conditions and it should weigh on asset price valuations, including equities. It also has big implications for what should work at the sector and style level. In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices. Secondarily, it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq, even as the overall equity market goes lower. This would mean a doubly difficult investment environment, given how most are positioned. For the past month, our strategy has been to favor a barbell of defensive quality sectors like healthcare and staples, with financials. The defensive stocks should hold up better as earnings revisions start to come under pressure from decelerating growth and higher costs, while financials can benefit from the higher interest rate environment. Last week, this barbell outperformed the broader index. On the other side of the ledger is consumer discretionary stocks, which remain vulnerable to a payback in demand from last year's over consumption. Within that bucket, we still favor services over goods where there remains some pent-up demand in our view. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

ACC Nation Podcast
Big Fork – The Weekend Wrap On ACC Nation Podcast

ACC Nation Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2021 40:32


We couldn't have asked for a better mid-week guest on our last episode than Sam Neumann of The Clemson Insider. This week Mike Wilson of Cardiac Hill will join us for the mid-week show to talk about Pitt and what's on the horizon. It seems too early for ACC teams to come to the big fork in the road but alas they have. For some, it's a change in direction for their season and for others it must feel like it's been stuck in them. We also brought along a special fork for you fans that have overstepped your boundaries. There's a lot to talk about and just enough time to fit it all in some whether you're listening to the podcast, around the world on ACC Nation Radio or you've just discovered our YouTube channel, thanks for letting us join you each week. It's been a Gomer Pyle kind of season. One surprise, after another surprise and yet another surprise to numb our brains. Everyone is questioning what we thought we knew about every single one of the ACC + 1 teams. With the release of the latest AP Top 25 everyone and I mean everyone is jumping on the 'let's kick them while they're down' train. Follow the ACC or a team therein? Better get used to another year of abuse from the inferiority complex conference, better known as the SEC. Oh, did we mention Mizzou lost to an ACC team yet? Now didn't that feel kinda good? DONATE Big Fork What kind of damage has been done to teams in the rankings? There was major damage to Clemson dropping from No. 9 last week to No. 25 in the latest poll. NC State benefitted with a debut at No. 23 while Wake Forest also joined the Top 25 at No. 24. North Carolina went from No. 21 to only receiving one vote this week. Meanwhile, Notre Dame as part of our ACC + 1 moved from No. 12 to No. 9. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast, listen to ACC Nation Radio or subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch the show. https://youtu.be/kS5pL5GFgNQ

Bakes Takes
I work to make you money in up AND DOWN markets!

Bakes Takes

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2021 21:45


Bakes' Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday,    September 19, 2021   Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.   1:03 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron's Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don't want to do that, please know that I'll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you'd like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.   Thank you especially Charlie, Justin, Murph from this Luddite.   Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.   Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.   2:56-4:18 Bakes' Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!   Joe RI—Please see My themes and groups. Half now 5% on this pullback. Dry powder IF (doubt) $79, $71. Spot has gone from $30 to $50. $140 old high! Think we get there over time.   Good example for Bakes' Takes+--I will monitor your stocks/ETF's alert you of buy and sell points.   Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Takes+--What would you like?   Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.   Bakes' Takes—My Themes/Groups   4:34 URNM—Down Friday, I don't care. Yes, volume was heavy. We are in at $30 7/20. Doubled in a month! Down 10%, standard. Closed well above the low and the breakout point. See next chart.   URNM-One week ago. The trend is up, my thesis intact. Let winners run. Cut losses.   URNM—Weekly chart. 7/20 buy, please note the pattern. Rise build, build new base, ATHS, 548% increase in volume!   URNM—+ YTD $42.90, $86.31 More than double, obviously.   CNBC talking about AAPL! We find unique opportunities. Please see Twitter, YT, etc. laid out with time stamps my process and thinking! I will find others!   8:03 John Quakes @quakes99, I responded WSB wasn't talking about it the week before.   9:03 Copper rolling over   10:03 EUM—Short MSCI Emerging Markets   10:47 SPY--$441.39 close below 50-dma, $409.34 200-dma now, 65% increase in volume.   Bakes' Take—Own some uranium here, I will alert you to dips. Dips in rest of market more likely, copper, short emerging markets, elsewhere. Getting tired, stay tuned.   Bakes' Takes-Gray Swan   12:31 The Guardian—China sends 19 aircraft into Taiwan's air defence zone   13:27 TSM death cross. Resolve up or down? Coincidence?   Bakes' Take—Podcasts of the Week!                                                                                                       Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Take—Reporters of the Week!   14:29 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBzaOCtZImU 9/16/21 33 minutes, Melissa Lee, CNBC Fast Money--Gauging uranium's bull run, with Global X's Rohan Reddy, first time I've seen them discuss Guy Adami     15:08 Bakes' Take—Sorry I pound #URNM so hard, but please note the methodology, logic, time stamps!   Bakes' Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!   15:30 John Quakes @quakes99, larry McDonald Uranium—200-300% for uranium names, recommended both at 16:11   16:17 Yellowbull @Yellowbull11--$30B mkt cap, all Uranium stocks!   17:02 GLD—Gold STILL stinks! Gap down.   17:59 Ishares MSCI Japan—Japanese subscribers, please weigh in! Large caps…   18:30 …and Small Cap, Wisdomtree Japan Small Cap Dividend. Please stay tuned!   18:57 Bakes' Takes- Individual investor advantage. No index hugging, committees, liquidity restrictions, etc.! I am working hard to help you build your hedge fund and make money every year, even when overall market declines. Most of you haven't seen that. Audacious, yes. But please come along for the ride.   Bakes' Take— Newsletters of the Week   Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Ooh La La—   Bakes' Take—Cut your losses, let your winners run, like URNM!   Please also subscribe to my Bakes' Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you'd like.   Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.   Have a great week. Bakes   20:22 Bakes' Beacons—Foo Fighters "Everlong" w/ 11-Year-Old Nandi Bushell, The Forum, Los Angeles, 8.26.21 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsDgrKdczAE   Bakes' Much-needed levity…   21:10 Jerry Seinfeld, Comedians in Cars getting Coffee, Carl Reiner, Mel Brooks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJu7oqiBXcg

Buck Reising on 104-5 The Zone
The Buck Reising Show 9-21-21 Hour Three: What we Learned From the Vols Against Tennessee Tech + Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel

Buck Reising on 104-5 The Zone

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2021 39:26


The Tennessee Vols shutout the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 56-0 on Saturday. What did we learn from the Big Orange? Plus, Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel joins Buck and Lucas in the third hour of the show.

Zone Podcasts
The Buck Reising Show 9-21-21 Hour Three: What we Learned From the Vols Against Tennessee Tech + Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2021 39:26


The Tennessee Vols shutout the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 56-0 on Saturday. What did we learn from the Big Orange? Plus, Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel joins Buck and Lucas in the third hour of the show.

Halftime Report
Safe to Buy the Dip? Or too Soon?

Halftime Report

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2021 44:43


Stocks coming off their worst day since mid-May. Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate if it's safe to buy on this drop, or is it too soon? Plus, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson tell us why a 20% correction for stocks is beginning to look more likely. Plus, Uber shares rallying on a positive outlook. Is it time to add this name to your portfolio? And, Fedex earnings after the bell. Should you buy ahead of the numbers?

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: The Final Chapter of the Mid-Cycle Transition?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2021 3:52


Although many commentators point to the S&P 500 near all-time highs as a rationale for higher stock prices, markets may be facing a bumpy road ahead.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, September 20th, at 12:30pm in New York. So let's get after it. For regular listeners to this podcast our mid-cycle transition narrative is probably getting fairly repetitive. A strong narrative that makes sense is worth riding until the end, and we're not there yet. However, we do think we've entered the final chapter. To recall, the mid-cycle transition began back in March. Initially, it's a more difficult time for the average stock, while the higher quality stocks and indices hold up. Over the last six months that's pretty much exactly what's happened - small caps and lower quality stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 significantly. But now we're entering the final chapter and that's the time when the index starts to underperform the average stock. This happens because that's where investors have been hiding; and at this stage of the transition, investors can no longer hide from the reality of what the mid-cycle transition brings. First, we have a deceleration in economic and earnings momentum. On the economic front, the data has already rolled over pretty hard. While many are blaming the Delta variant for this slowdown in the economy, we think it's more about the payback in demand from a fiscal stimulus and recovery that was unsustainably strong earlier this year. Furthermore, because this recession and recovery were much sharper than normal, we should expect a greater deceleration in growth during the mid-cycle transition phase this time. Finally, due to the nature of this recession being centered around a health crisis, the fiscal support from the government was unusually strong. This led to very high operating leverage and profitability. The normalization means that we could see negative operating leverage for a few quarters as costs are layered back in just as top line growth slows. The bottom line: earnings revisions over the next few quarters will probably look relatively worse than the economic revisions of late. The other headwind for markets that comes at this stage of the mid-cycle transition is the Fed moving away from maximum accommodation. In the 1994 and 2004 versions, the Fed began hiking interest rates. In the 2011 mid-cycle transition, the Fed simply let quantitative easing expire. This time around it's the tapering of asset purchases and we think the Fed will signal that more definitively at this week's meeting. In short, financial conditions should tighten and that means higher interest rates, higher risk premiums or both. Either one means lower equity valuations, which is really the key part of the final chapter of the mid-cycle transition. Once that derating is complete, we can then move forward to the mid-cycle phase, which usually leads to a reacceleration in growth, a broadening out of stock performance and higher equity prices. So how bad will it get? We've been suggesting a 10-15% correction in the S&P 500 is inevitable once we get to the final stage. However, given how long this has taken to play out, the drawdown could end up being closer to 20% if the growth slowdown ends up being worse than normal. In 2011, we had a 19% drawdown, so it's not unprecedented. Therefore, we continue to think investors should hunker down a bit more than normal and skew portfolios toward defensive quality rather than large cap growth quality. Of course, markets can surprise us, which begs the question, what could change our view and allow the S&P 500 to avoid the 10-20% drawdown? First on the list is another fiscal stimulus directed right at the consumer that sustains the well above trend of demand. This could come from either U.S. or China. Second would be a Fed that completely reverses course this week and says they no longer plan to taper asset purchases this year or even next year. Both seem unlikely at this stage, but if markets become somewhat dislocated, we could then see a reaction from policymakers later this fall. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

ACC Nation Podcast
Flame Throwing Hot Seats – ACC Nation Podcast Weekend Wrap

ACC Nation Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2021 52:50


Estimated reading time: 2 minutes After week three of college football some coaches need to experience flame throwing hot seats. We don't hold back on who and why in the weekend wrap of ACC Nation Podcast. Coming up later this week our special guest is Sam Neumann of The Clemson Insider who'll share his thoughts on the sputtering Tigers offense. So, it's a week full of holding teams accountable for their head shaking performances. Everyone gets a dose of that medicine called reality as there's no more room for excuses. You get paid big bucks, now make something equally big happen on the field or face the wraith of fans who have no more patience. Listen 24/7 To ACC Nation Radio. At Home, On The Road Or At Work. Just as a quick reminder, not only will Sam Neumann be joining us mid-week but our next mid-week special guest will be Mike Wilson of Cardiac Hill to help dissect the dizzying roller-coaster ride know as Pitt. You deserve answers and we want to ask the questions. If you have any of your own feel free to drop them to us here. DONATE Flame Throwing Hot Seats Experience the sizzle for yourself from start to finish of this past weekend's schedule. There's plenty of talk within the ACC about 'upping the game' when it comes to football. We've been hearing it for years now and it's come down to, 'You can talk the talk, but can you walk the walk'? We know it's what you're yelling at your tv or in person when watching the games (though we did clean it up a smidge) so don't be too surprised. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast, listen to ACC Nation Radio or subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch the show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aepS6b1U_oI

On The Tape
An Investor Named Suh with Special Guest Ndamukong Suh

On The Tape

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2021 70:01


Guy, Dan, and Danny discuss increasing calls for a stock market correction (7:17), China's Evergrande crisis (15:18), and Dan does an impromptu “Rip Off The Tape” on the Wall Street Journal's Facebook investigation (27:40). The co-hosts interview lobbyist Brady Cobb on what new developments in the SAFE Banking Act mean for Cannabis (32:56). Later, they are joined by investor, all-pro NFL defensive lineman, and Super Bowl champion Ndamukong Suh of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (43:08).  More information on some of the topics referenced in this episode: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson calls for a 10% correction Fed presidents dump shares and apologize for the 'appearance' of conflicts of interest after big trades in companies like Apple and Tesla Evergrande's Woes Fuel Selloff in Chinese Property Shares The Facebook Files: A Wall Street Journal Investigation House Could Vote On Psychedelics Research For Military And Marijuana Banking As Part Of Defense Bill Suh Family Foundation Stash Partners with the Suh Family Foundation and Big Yard Foundation to Launch Financial Literacy Summer Program ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

CNBC's
Is a Market Correction on the Horizon? And Breaking Down Apple's Latest Product Event

CNBC's "Fast Money"

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2021 44:01


Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson just cut his rating on U.S. equities to underweight and says a 10% correction is on its way. He lays out the case and where you can go for safety. Plus Apple just laid out its latest slate of iPhones and Apple Watches. How the new versions stack up and what it means for the stock.

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: Keeping an Eye on Earnings Estimates

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2021 3:42


Equities markets may be sending mixed messages on the economy and growth, but ultimately, it's all about the earnings. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains.

Bakes Takes
#Uranium--5x-8x from here is reasonable. That‘s the metal itself! The stocks, #URNM, will rise more!

Bakes Takes

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2021 19:20


Bakes' Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday,    September 4, 2021   Enjoy your Labor Day!   :32 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.   :43 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron's Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don't want to do that, please know that I'll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you'd like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.   1:56 Thank you especially Charlie, Justin, Murph from this Luddite.   2:24 Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.   3:16 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.   Bakes' Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!   3:29 COIN, $261, $280   4:14 COIN—last week's levels! Getting better, ETH outperforming bitcoin. Caveat—last trading day before Labor Day slow, we'll learn more next week.   5:53 Good example for Bakes' Takes+--I will monitor your stocks/ETF's alert you of buy and sell points.   6:03 Bakes' Take—Crypto volatility not going away, ETH, COIN providing the AOL-like on ramp   6:35 Bakes' Takes+--What would you like?   6:42 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.   Bakes' Takes—My Themes/Groups   6:49 Up 10%+, vs. 3.97% HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, I am free, for now, they charge 2%/20% one red ETF, not down 15%, URNM 145% since inception, URA 101%, COPX 28%, 35% cash, 10% short SPAC's, 10% short emerging markets. MY/YOUR HEDGE FUND! DALIO'S ALL-WEATHER! MAKE MONEY EVERY YEAR! 13%+ 2H '20—CHECK! 10%+ '21 SO FAR…!   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FD4J4StWpY 9:25 My 10 reasons for investing in URNM!   9:49 URNM—up 145% since inception   10:21-11:24 URNM—74%+ YTD ARROWS! CLOSING AT HIGHS, GAPS   11:30 Reason #11, Spinal Tap, Ok boomer, Sprott so new, no chart, GLD—launched in 2004, $45 to $171, now $58B, Sprott Uranium is $1B   13:39 @quakes99 14:16 URNM is ESG!   15:02 ‘70's +629% 5.3 yrs, ‘00's +1,801% 6.5 yrs, NOW 83%, 4.7%, 5x-8x REASONABLE, THAT's THE METAL ITSELF, THE STOCKS #URNM WILL GO UP MORE!   16:42 Bakes' Take—I like all my themes, copper, short SPAC's, short emerging markets, TAGS, Subtle as 2x4, Buy URNM, even up here. I discover ideas like this all the time! Please subscribe and share. 1700+ charts, will let you know what I find next week!                                                                                                       Bakes' Take—Cut your losses, let your winners run, like URNM!   17:39 Please also subscribe to my Bakes' Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you'd like.   Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.   Have a great week. Bakes   18:11 Bakes' Beacons—Travis Tritt, It's a Great Day to Be Alive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IKJa4ok83M   Bakes' Much-needed levity…   18:45 Chris Farley, Adam Sandler, Lunch Lady, SNL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY14zcUM9SI

Zone Podcasts
Blaine and Mickey 9-3-21 Hour Two: Mike Wilson brings Tennessee takeaways

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2021 42:39


Mike Wilson brings Tennessee takeaways + Call Your Shot.

Zone Podcasts
Mike Wilson talks Vols vs Bowling Green on Blaine and Mickey

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2021 19:54


Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel provides takeaways from the win over Bowling Green, takes listener questions, and much more.

Bakes Takes
HODL is bullshit! I SELL stocks better than you! Try me!

Bakes Takes

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2021 24:39


Bakes' Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday,    August 28, 2021   :27 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.   :51 ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron's Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don't want to do that, please know that I'll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you'd like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.   2:07 Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283.   3:00 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.   Bakes' Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!   3:10 HODL is bullshit! I SELL stocks better than you! Try me!   4:50 Murph, NY—If Dollar cost averaging is strong sell discipline as crucial? Great for 401(k), SPX, int'l fund, 40+ years.   5:17 Answer for my themes is yes, focused, 10%, precise buy signals, breakouts, on 50% increase in volume. Also, preserves actual and psychological capital. 15% loss, can find 20% winners.   6:35 You don't need to use mine, but find your own. Very few investors have a sell discipline, frankly including pros.   6:56 Thoroughly evaluate each month. Doesn't take that much time. How many of 10 reasons still valid? -15%. 200 dma etc.   7:28 You have advantage over the pros! No committees, mandates, restrictions. No PM is 17% uranium, 10% short SPAC's, 36% cash etc. I like my chances.   8:10 Vs. 20% HC, 25% tech, doesn't work.   8:50 SOXX 5/20 $240 launch pad.   9:20 SOXX daily—clear uptrend, NVDA killing it, TSM raising prices, don't do anything until close below 200 dma $416.50 and rising.     10:10 DKNG--$19 4/20 launch. 10:54 DKNG--$48-$50, not bad from $19, likely stalls at $60 11:59 SQ—5/20 $68   12:29 SQ—Sell 1/3 $197, let rest ride   13:18 COIN--$261, $280   14:23 SOFI--$13.14 support, $18.64 resistance. Earnings report disappointed, volume up on down days. Watch, but avoid for now.   15:30 Bakes' Take—My sell discipline works. If you have a better one, I would love to see it.   16:03 Bakes' Takes+--What would you like?   16:08 Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.   16:17 Bakes' Takes—My Themes/Groups   16:19 RIDE—One of SOGU's shorts. Icahn lieutenant Daniel Ninivaggi named CEO. Up in first hour, faded below $6.69 resistance, closed at $6.49. Lacked funds to start commercial production, doubt able to continue as a going concern. SEC, DOJ, preorders, SPAC merger. Ford F-150 on lots 2022, $10k below Endurance.   18:36 Bakes' Take—EV's are going down. SOGU up.   Bakes' Takes-Gray Swan, new segment   Bakes' Take—Podcasts of the Week!   https://riskreversal.com/on-the-tape/ 19:11 On the Tape—33:11 Rich Greenfield, AMC short.   19:45 Maybe, but not yet. Fundamentals often code for I'm right the markets wrong. Being right vs. making money. So early their wrong. Why technical help so much.   Cinemark/CNK—according to Greenfield, same business, better balance sheet, $2B mkt cap vs. AMC $20B. F9 750 mil at box office, F8 $1.2B. My IG video, 4 of us in theater. AMC--92 mil shs short, 18% of float up 8% over last month. CEO selling, in filings say fundamentals don't warrant stock price. Hold for now.                                                                                                         21:53 Bakes' Take—Timing is everything, I will help.   Bakes' Take—Reporters of the Week!   21:55 Ex-Tesla, 45 minutes vs. 10 minutes gas to charge EV. And that's CA. Chargers tougher to find elsewhere. That's before stressing the grid.   Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!   Bakes' Takes-   Bakes' Take— Newsletters of the Week   Bakes' Take—   23:20 Please also subscribe to my Bakes' Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you'd like.   Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.   Have a great week. Bakes   Bakes' Beacons—   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X83L1ZSpbkg 23:49 Tom Rice, D-Day veteran, jumps for 100th birthday!   Much-needed levity…   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvtvtROpXW4 24:13 Jeff Ross Funniest Roasts of All Time

LPChurch Podcasts
LifePoint Online - Uncharted - Week 09 | Mike Wilson

LPChurch Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2021 32:35


LifePoint Online - Uncharted - Week 09 | Mike Wilson Download message notes at bit.ly/UnchartedWeek9 ABOUT LIFEPOINT LifePoint is based on these beliefs; It's Okay To Not Be Okay High Grace, Low Shame Take Your Next Right Step / Say Yes To Jesus No One Stands Alone / You Belong You Were Made For More. Join us for one of our online services, and check out our website to find a bit more information about us. We would love to have you join us at https://lifepointc.churchonline.org/ Find locations, our beliefs, and more info about us at https://www.lpchurch.com/about. CONNECT WITH LIFEPOINT LifePoint Hub: www.lpchurch.com/hub  YouTube: www.youtube.com/ Facebook: www.facebook.com/LifePointC/

Zone Podcasts
UT Podcast Ep. 66: The ultimate 2021 season preview with Jonathan Crompton, Mike Wilson and Ramon Foster

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2021 85:19


A HUGE UT Podcast with Will Boling and Lucas Panzica is out now! 9:20 - VFL Jonathan Crompton breaks down UT's QBs 30:28 - Mike Wilson's camp observations 48:20 - Our Zone teammate and VFL Ramon Foster 1:07:08 - Game by game picks Available everywhere!

Ultimate Tennessee Podcast
UT Podcast Ep. 66: The ultimate 2021 season preview with Jonathan Crompton, Mike Wilson and Ramon Foster

Ultimate Tennessee Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2021 85:19


A HUGE UT Podcast with Will Boling and Lucas Panzica is out now! 9:20 - VFL Jonathan Crompton breaks down UT's QBs 30:28 - Mike Wilson's camp observations 48:20 - Our Zone teammate and VFL Ramon Foster 1:07:08 - Game by game picks Available everywhere!

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: So, What's the Story?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2021 3:40


Although a key component of investing is getting the narrative right, perhaps a bigger component is knowing when the narrative could change.

Buck Reising on 104-5 The Zone
The Buck Reising Show 8-30-21 Hour Three: Issues at Nissan Stadium + Mike Wilson talks Vols

Buck Reising on 104-5 The Zone

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2021 38:48


Nissan Stadium had some issues with gates and concessions on Saturday. Buck speaks with guests and talks about what could be better. Plus, Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel joins the show to talk about the Vols QB news and more.

Zone Podcasts
The Buck Reising Show 8-30-21 Hour Three: Issues at Nissan Stadium + Mike Wilson talks Vols

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2021 38:48


Nissan Stadium had some issues with gates and concessions on Saturday. Buck speaks with guests and talks about what could be better. Plus, Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel joins the show to talk about the Vols QB news and more.

Bakes Takes
Break up with dating stocks! Short SPAC's/EV's! #SOGU! Wood vs. Burry!

Bakes Takes

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2021 32:42


Bakes' Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday,    August 21, 2021   :45 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.   ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron's Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don't want to do that, please know that I'll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you'd like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you.   2:01 Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. Happy Birthday. 610-331-4283.   3:03 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.   Bakes' Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!   3:15 Best sell discipline example now? Will follow up with all of your stocks over the next week   Anonymous   Match Group—Tinder, Hinge, etc. Sell 1/3, avoid   Weekly, rally from COVID lows rolling over   5:36 Bumble/BMBL—appears to be basing just above $43 IPO price, ladies making first move? Taking share?   Bakes –   7:05 Hope all is well and you're feeling better! Was wondering what you thought about the recent bounce back in cryptos broadly; what's been the impetus for the rebound and should people with wide exposure to crypto take the chance to sell?     Bitcoin/other crypto—Hold core positions, 5-10% max, looking for big volume move above $40. Challenge of highs likely. $30,000 held, $24 GBTC held!   9:50 Gold/GLD still stinks, Fed/Biden should be gold bugs dream, doesn't care about textbooks, digital gold winning so far   10:45 Also, would love to hear what you think about the Delta variant and what comes after…Is whatever comes after a grey swan?   Thanks, Charlie   11:34 rate of breakthrough cases reported among those fully vaccinated is below 1% in all reporting states, ranging from 0.01% in Connecticut to 0.54% in Arkansas.   The hospitalization rate among fully vaccinated people with COVID-19 ranged from effectively zero (0.00%) in California, Delaware, D.C., Indiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Vermont, and Virginia to 0.06% in Arkansas.    The rates of death among fully vaccinated people with COVID-19 were even lower, effectively zero (0.00%) in all but two reporting states, Arkansas and Michigan where they were 0.01%.   Unvaccinated, that's a you problem, if you want to cull your own herd, so be it.   12:42       Finally, few breakthrough cases I've known = bad cold, 3 days, at worst.   Bakes' Take—Bitcoin going up, Gold, down, COVID-19 too obvious, data suggests not Gray Swan   Bakes' Takes+--What would you like?   Please share this with your RH or RR friends, send your other stocks/ideas and I will offer strategy for them as well. Please stay tuned.   Bakes' Takes—My Themes/Groups   14:14 Short De Spac ETF/SOGU—up 23% plus so far, 6 wks.   Bakes' Take—Short SPAC's/SOGU very promising, please tell me why these are going up! Twitter gave me crickets! Thank you.   RIDE, NKLA—Indicted, investigated, path to zero?   17:29 COPX/Global X Copper—sold 1/3 per discipline, 13%+ profit, 50 dma through 200 dma?, 200 dma declines? China macro excuse, don't care   Bakes' Takes-Gray Swan, new segment   18:41 Charlie S., NYC—Afghanistan, Market didn't care, Cancer, Saudi Arabia of Lithium, China will screw with us, LMT other defense contractors likely priced in, 9/11   21:19 China—Taiwan, Hong Kong, and now Afghanistan/Lithium!   Bakes' Take—Podcasts of the Week!   https://thisweekinstartups.com/the-next-unicorns-adena-hefets-ceo-of-divvy-homes-forging-a-new-path-to-home-ownership-e1246/ 21:56 Divvy, rent to buy, please check out!   https://thisweekinstartups.com/rapid-fire-news-ai-voices-after-death-doj-investigates-lordstown-motors-covid-adaptation-e1248/ 23:04 13:00 Lordstown, going to zero?   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_LwOVWcp0U 23:42 Nikola fraud charges                                                                                                       Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Take—Reporters of the Week!   24:06 TheStreet.com       25:24 ARKK     26:09 TSLA, ARKK's #1 position, roughly 10%   Bakes' Take—   Bakes' Take—Charts/Tweets/Posts of the Week!   26:25 Prof. G—15x Sales, lousy long-term returns   Bakes' Takes-   Bakes' Take— Newsletters of the Week       Shiller CAPE approaching '99 peak 28:06 Same with P/E, dividend yield, etc.   28:30 Earnings growth has been so strong, the SPX P/E multiple has declined   28:55 Stocks sniffed out the earnings recovery we just saw.   29:37 FMAGA has become the market.   30:08 Top 10 stocks now close to 30% of the market. They contributed 34% of earnings. These companies are huge for a reason.   30:51 The Bear Traps Report, Larry MacDonald, Afghanistan—Saudi Arabia of lithium.   Bakes' Take—China has no moral quandary securing lithium from Taliban   31:30 Please also subscribe to my Bakes' Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please, please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you'd like.   Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer.   Have a great week. Bakes   Bakes' Beacons—   Much-needed levity…   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRkZET-WE1g 32:00 15 Funniest Impressions Done in Front of the Actual Person   https://ymhstudios.com/2bears/ 32:08 Segura, Kreischer new episode

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: The U.S. Consumer Takes a Break

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2021 3:39


An old adage says 'never bet against the US consumer's willingness to spend,' but new data on demand and consumption may say otherwise.

Locked On Vols
Brent Hubbs and Mike Wilson detail Tennessee football camp

Locked On Vols

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2021 35:32


The Locked On Vols podcast is your daily show covering Tennessee Volunteers football and basketball with Eric Cain. Friday's show welcomes on a couple of guests in Brent Hubbs of Volquest.com and Mike Wilson of Knoxnews.com. We also go over some notes from practice that was held Thursday morning. All that and more on a Friday Locked on Vols! Be sure to participate in #TwitterTuesday by tweeting @LockedonVols or @_Cainer all your questions. Tuesday's show will answer them! DMs are open. Follow the show on those Twitter accounts and also on host Eric Cain's Facebook page: CainerOnAir. And every Friday is 5 Star Friday here on Locked on Vols! Head over to Apple Podcasts and leave a positive review + a 5 star rating and we'll shout you out each and every Friday! Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! SweatBlock Get it today for 20% off at SweatBlock.com with promo code LockedOn, or at Amazon and CVS. Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order. BetOnline AG There is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Rock Auto Amazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. StatHero StatHero, the FIRST Ever Daily Fantasy Sportsbook that gives the PLAYER the ADVANTAGE. Go to StatHero.com/LockedOn for 300% back on your first play. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ A special shoutout to James Manning (@GooseManning5) for his assistance in graphic design. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bloomberg Surveillance
Surveillance: Margin Pressure With Wilson

Bloomberg Surveillance

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2021 34:40


Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equities Strategist, warns of margin degradation into 2022. Esther Duflo, Nobel Prize winning Economist and Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor, discusses her studies about poverty in the global economy. Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, says markets are already pricing in fiscal stimulus. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details his outlook and explains why he thinks “we are at the fork in the investment road.” Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, expects a ferocious fight in the fall over the second infrastructure bill. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Zone Podcasts
Blaine and Mickey 8-6-21 Hour Two: Mike Wilson checks in from Vols fall camp.

Zone Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2021 37:57


Mike Wilson checks in from Vols fall camp + Call Your Shot.