Podcast appearances and mentions of mike wilson

Global trade tensions have eased after a steadying in U.S. policy shifts, leading our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson to make a more bullish case for the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I will discuss recent developments on tariffs and interest rates, and how it affects our 12 month view for U.S. Equities.It's Friday, May 23rd at 9am in New York.So, let's get after it.The reduction in the headline tariff rate on China from 145 percent to 30 percent extended the rally in stocks last week and should help to support both corporate and consumer confidence. More importantly, the 90-day détente came at a critical juncture, in my view, as a few more weeks of what was essentially a trade embargo would have likely led to a recession.Equity market volatility also subsided considerably amid the decline in trade policy uncertainty. In fact, both measures peaked well before the deal with China came together and are now back below where they were pre-Liberation Day. To me, this means trade headwinds have likely peaked in rate of change terms and are unlikely to return to such levels again. This would fit with the capitulatory price action we saw in early April with the average stock in the S&P 500 experiencing a 30 percent drawdown. In short, while the lagging hard data is likely to come in softer over the next coming months, the equity market already priced it in April. In the event of a recession that still arrives, we think the April lows will still hold, assuming it's a mild one with manageable risk to credit and funding markets.As further support for stocks, earnings revisions breadth appears to have bottomed. This indicator has leading properties in terms of the direction of earnings forecasts and is an important gauge of corporate confidence, in our view. The combination of upside momentum in revision breadth and last week's deal with China has placed the S&P 500 firmly back in our original pre-Liberation Day first half range of 5500-6100. Having said that, we think continued upward progress in earnings revisions breadth into positive territory will be necessary to break through 6100 in the near term, given the stickiness of 10-year Treasury yields.Amidst these developments, we released our mid -year outlook earlier this week and updated our base, bear and bull case targets for the S&P 500. In short, we effectively pushed out the timing of our original 6500 price target for the end of this year to 12 months from today. This is mainly due to a less dovish Fed and therefore higher 10-year Treasury yields than our economists and rates strategists expected at the end of last year. We also trimmed our EPS forecasts modestly to adjust for higher than expected tariff rates, at least for now.Looking ahead, we are more bullish today than we were at the end of last year given the growth negative policy announcements are now behind us and the Fed's next move is likely to be multiple cuts. In short, the rate of change on earnings revisions breadth, interest rates and policy changes from the administration are all now pointing in a positive direction, the opposite of six months ago and why I was not bullish on the first half of this year.The near-term risk for U.S. equities remains very overbought conditions and interest rates. With the Fed on hold due to lingering inflation concerns and Moody's downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt last Friday, 10-year Treasury yields are back above 4.5 percent; the level where the correlation between equities and rates tends to move back into negative territory. Ultimately, we think the Treasury and Fed have tools they can and will use to manage this risk. However, in the short term, this is a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 to take a break and even lead to a 5 percent correction. We would look to add equity risk into such a correction should it materialize given our bullish 6-12-month view.Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review; and if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Mike Wilson on 3HL - Are the BaseVols Getting Hot + Does Zakai have a ChanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets fading late in the session as investors digested President Trump's tax bill passing in the House. Was it the final hurdle on the path to new highs? Where Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees stocks heading next and where he's seeing the most opportunity. Plus, the housing sector slumping as April home sales drop to the slowest pace for that month since 2009. But could the spring market malaise be about to turn around?Fast Money Disclaimer

Equity markets saw big rallies after trade tensions eased over the weekend. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he's optimistic that the worst of the market trough is over.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing how to think about the recent tariff negotiations for equity markets. It's Monday, May 12th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Over the weekend, U.S.-China trade negotiations made better than expected progress with both sides agreeing to a détente in the trade war that began just one short month ago. The main question I'm getting from investors is whether they should trust this initial agreement, and if it will eventually lead to something more sustainable? From my perspective, this misses the more important point for equity investors. To remind listeners, equity markets trade in the future. Therefore, the question to ask yourself is do you think things will be more or less uncertain in six months and will they be better or worse? The other thing to consider is that stocks trade on the second derivative, or rate of change, in growth. On that score, I believe it is likely we saw the trough rate of change in variables that tend to correlate with stock prices the most. More specifically, earnings revisions breadth showed a meaningful uptick last week for the first time this year. Some of this was driven by a pull forward in demand during the first quarter ahead of the tariff announcements that led to better than feared earnings. In addition, several leading companies posted better than expected results thanks to a weaker dollar. Importantly, the translation benefit for U.S. multinational earnings is likely to be a big earnings tailwind for the next six months. Many of the growth negative things we were worried about five months ago have played out now with Liberation Day marking the point of maximum negative sentiment and positioning. There is an adage that equity markets bottom on bad news, and I can't think of a better example of that than Liberation Day last month. Similarly, markets tend to top on good news and this weekend's better than expected outcome on trade negotiations with China could very well lead to a pause in the rally. Therefore, we would buy dips rather than chase stocks on days like today. Markets can look forward to the possibility of growth positive policy changes that still may be in front of us. Things like tax cut extensions, de-regulation and resolution of the debt ceiling and budget appropriations for the next year. Finally, with the threat of further escalation of tariff rates now diminished, the Fed can also come back into the picture with rate cuts sooner than perhaps what the Fed told us last week. While we don't know exactly how much the tariffs will impact inflation over the next year, it is likely to be front-end loaded. In fact, there is a case to be made that tariffs may hurt demand and end up being disinflationary. The Fed is likely to determine this outcome over the summer and could begin to at least signal rate cuts. Such a move will potentially lead to a more sustainable rotation towards lower quality, cyclical stocks and drive animal spirits in a way that many investors were expecting six months ago but simply jumped the gun. Bottom line, I feel more confident in our original outlook for this year for a tough first half, followed by a strong second one. This outlook was based on our view that AI capex growth was bound to decelerate this year, while policy changes were likely to be growth negative to start. Now, we can look forward to growth positive policy changes and productivity benefits from the spending on AI that has already taken place. After such a strong rally, pullbacks are inevitable but unlikely to be anything like we saw last month. So, buy the dips. Thank you for choosing to listen. Leave us a review, and let us know what you think about the podcast. If you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses how market volatility over the last month will affect equity markets as earnings season begins.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, I will discuss what to expect from Equity markets as we enter the heart of earnings season. It's Monday, April 28th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. The S&P 500 tested both the lower and upper ends of our 5000-5500 range last week, reinforcing the notion that we remain in a volatile trading environment. Incrementally positive news on a potential tariff deal with China and hope for a more dovish Fed lifted stocks into the end of the week, and the S&P 500 closed slightly above the upper end of our range. While a modest overshoot of 5500 can persist very short-term, a sustainable break above this level is dependent on developments that have yet to come to fruition. Those include a tariff deal with China that brings down the effective rate materially; a more dovish Fed; 10-year Treasury yields falling below 4 percent without recessionary risks increasing; and a clear rebound in earnings revisions. Bottom line, until we see clear positive shift in one or more of these factors, range trading is likely to continue with risks to the downside given that we are now at the top end of the range. A frequent question we're getting from clients is does the soft data matter for equities or is the market waiting for the hard data to make up its mind in terms of an upside or downside breakout above or below this range? Our view has been consistent that the most important macro data at this stage is from the labor market while the most important micro data are earnings revisions. Equities have already priced a meaningful slowdown in growth relative to expectations. What's not priced is a labor cycle or recession. While this risk has been reduced to some extent given the recent, more dovish tone shift on tariffs from the administration, it's far from extinguished. Until we see clear evidence over multiple months that the labor market remains solid, a recession will likely remain a coin toss. One soft data point to pay attention to this week that could move the market is the April ISM Manufacturing data on May 1st. Recall this series accelerated the August 2024 selloff ahead of a soft July payroll report. The most important takeaway from an equity strategy perspective is to stay up the quality curve. No matter what the hard data says, we remain in a late cycle backdrop where both quality and large cap relative outperformance should continue. While uncertainty remains higher than usual, defensives should continue to do well. However, given their relative outperformance over the past year, it also makes sense to pick spots in high quality cyclicals that have already discounted a material slowdown in both macro conditions and earnings. To be clear, this is not a blanket call on cyclicals; it's a selective, stock-specific one. More specifically, look for quality, cyclical stocks that are more de-risked based on what the stocks are pricing from a forward earnings growth standpoint. See our written research for stock screens. And from a global standpoint, we recommend favoring U.S. over international equities at this point as a weaker dollar should benefit U.S. relative earnings revisions, particularly versus Europe and Japan. Furthermore, less volatile earnings growth and a higher quality bias should benefit the U.S. on a relative basis in today's late cycle backdrop. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Chase Thomas is the Sports Renaissance Man, Atlanta Sports Guy & VFL. On today's program, Chase is joined by Bluechip Breakdown's Bull to talk about Joey Aguilar's fit in Josh Heupel's scheme at Tennessee, the Jake Merklinger vs. George Macintyre QB2 battle, if Joshua Josephs can make the leap in 2025, if Mike Matthews belongs in the slot and Boo Carter's 2025 jump possibilities. Then, Knox News' Mike Wilson sits down with Chase to talk about if this will be Rick Barnes' best team at Tennessee, the Vols getting back in on Darius Adams, Jaylen Carey starting at the 4, and what's going on with Tennessee baseball right now. Host: Chase ThomasGuest: Bull, Mike WilsonTo learn more about CT and the pod please go visit: https://chasethomaspodcast.comBy the way, this is a free, independent national sports podcast. To keep it that way, I'm going to need some help from you guys. If you're a fan of the pod and you haven't already, take a second right now and leave the show a 5-star rating and a review on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really does help, and it's so quick and easy to do. Thanks, y'all!Keep up with Chase on social media:Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/PodChaseThomasFollow me on Instagram: https://bit.ly/3kFHPDnFollow me on TikTok: https://bit.ly/3JdZ3RF'Like' me on Facebook: https://bit.ly/3ZmURo4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode #106 of Daffy's Round Table! On this episode i am joined by the head zoo keeper at The Reptarium, Mike Wilson! Join us as we discuss Mike's responsibilities as the head zookeeper, what his day to day at work looks like and all the awesome species he gets to work with. We also talk about what it was like working with the great Brian Barcyzk and how the preparations for the Legasea Aquarium is going! *Disclaimer this episode was filmed back in February, the Legasea Aquarium is now open* Huge thank you to Exo Terra for Sponsoring this podcast and making this episode possible. Exo Terra makes quality products for our pet reptiles to make them feel at home. Follow Mike on IG: https://www.instagram.com/mistymike77Subscribe to Brian Barczyk on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/ ⁨@BrianBarczyk⁩ If you enjoyed this episode please subscribe to Daffy's Round Table on whatever streaming platform you use! Support the podcast, buy merch! https://daffys-reptiles-shop.fourthwa...Follow Daffy: Instagram: @DaffysreptilesTwitter: @DaffysreptilesFacebook: Facebook.com/DaffysreptilesTiktok: @DaffysreptilesBusiness: daffysreptiles@gmail.com

It's a milestone day here at Grit & Gravitas as Anne & Anne welcome their first male guest on the podcast in four years—Mike Wilson, President & CEO of Members 1st Federal Credit Union. “Members 1st comes from humble beginnings,” Mike says. “Seventy-five years ago, 9 people put money into a pot to lend each other money to buy appliances during the war, and that's how Members 1st got started.” By harnessing what Mike calls the Culture of We, this community-favorite credit union is 600,000 members strong and has $8 billion in assets.  As an Army Brat, Mike learned from an early age the value of building relationships. “I speak to every single person the first day they start at Members 1st,” he says. Come along with us for an action-packed 30 minutes on leadership, communication, and inspiration. “Always talk to strangers,” Mike advises. “If I ever wrote a book, that would be the title.” Welcome to the G&G Tribe, Mike!

Can the U.S. equity market break out of its expected range? Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at whether the Trump administration's shifting tariff policy and Fed uncertainty will continue weighing down stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, I will discuss what it will take for the US equity market to break out of the 5000-5500 range. It's Monday, April 21st at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Last week, we focused on our view that the S&P 500 was likely to remain in a 5000-5500 range in the near term given the constraints on both the upside and the downside. First, on the upside, we think it will be challenging for the index to break through prior support of 5500 given the recent acceleration lower in earnings revisions, uncertainty on how tariff negotiations will progress and the notion that the Fed appears to be on hold until it has more clarity on the inflationary and growth impacts of tariffs and other factors. At the same time, we also believe the equity market has been contemplating all of these challenges for much longer than the consensus acknowledges. Nowhere is this evidence clearer than in the ratio of Cyclical versus Defensive stocks as discussed on this podcast many times. In fact, the ratio peaked a year ago and is now down more than 40 per cent.Coming into the year, we had a more skeptical view on growth than the consensus for the first half due to expectations that appeared too rosy in the context of policy sequencing that was likely to be mostly growth negative to start. Things like immigration enforcement, DOGE, and tariffs. Based on our industry analysts' forecasts, we were also expecting AI Capex growth to decelerate, particularly in the first half of the year when growth rate comparisons are most challenging. Recall the Deep Seek announcement in January that further heightened investor concerns on this factor. And given the importance of AI Capex to the overall growth expectations of the economy, this dynamic remains a major consideration for investors. A key point of today's episode is that just as many were overly optimistic on growth coming into the year, they may be getting too pessimistic now, especially at the stock level. As the breakdown in cyclical stocks indicate, this correction is well advanced both in price and time, having started nearly a year ago. Now, with the S&P 500 closing last week very close to the middle of our range, the index appears to be struggling with the uncertainty of how this will all play out.Equities trade in the future as they try to discount what will be happening in six months, not today. Predicting the future path is very difficult in any environment and that is arguably more difficult today than usual, which explains the high volatility in equity prices. The good news is that stocks have discounted quite a bit of slowing at this point. It's worth remembering the factors that many were optimistic about four-to-give months ago—things like de-regulation, lower interest rates, AI productivity and a more efficient government—are still on the table as potential future positive catalysts. And markets have a way of discounting them before it's obvious.However, there is also a greater risk of a recession now, which is a different kind of slowdown that has not been fully priced at the index level, in our view. So as long as that risk remains elevated, we need to remain balanced with our short-term views even if we believe the odds of a positive outcome for growth and equities are more likely than consensus does over the intermediate term. Hence, we will continue to range trade.Further clouding the picture is the fact that companies face more uncertainty than they have since the early days of the pandemic. As a result, earnings revisions breadth is now at levels rarely witnessed and approaching downside extremes assuming we avoid a recession. Keep in mind that these revisions peaked almost a year ago, well before the S&P 500 topped, further supporting our view that this correction is much more advanced than acknowledged by the consensus. This is why we are now more interested in looking at stocks and sectors that may have already discounted a mild recession even if the broader index has not. Bottom line, if a recession is averted, markets likely made their lows two weeks ago. If not, the S&P 500 will likely take those lows out. There are other factors that could take us below 4800 in a bear case outcome, too. For example, the Fed decides to raise rates due to tariff-driven inflation; or the term premium blows out, taking 10-year Treasury yields above 5 per cent without any growth improvement.Nevertheless, we think recession probability is the wildcard now that markets are wrestling with. In S&P terms, we think 5000-5500 is the appropriate range until this risk is either confirmed or refuted by the hard data – with labor being the most important. In the meantime, stay up the quality curve with your equity portfolio.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Property Tax Bill signed into law by Braun. Scott Jennings systematically dismantle every Democrat talking point on the Albrego Garcia deportation case in real-time. ‘Home Alone 2’ director Chris Columbus says he wants Donald Trump’s cameo removed. Everyone at WIBC knows that Matt Bair is an unbelievable story and an incredible person. His life turnaround is a joy to watch. He deserves nothing but the best. Making Indiana Healthy Again. Popcorn Moment: Katy Perry is insufferable, and so is Melinda Gates. Marketplace: Triumph for sale. Trump administration refers NY AG Tish James for potential prosecution over alleged mortgage fraud. Braun didn't veto the property bill because it would have only been symbolic. What's wrong with symbolism? Mike Wilson from Laser Precision Marksmanship Club joins to talk about running a business in a challenging environment. Markets are down, but consumer spending still up. Dana Bash says CNN does not hate this country.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Braun didn't veto the property bill because it would have only been symbolic. What's wrong with symbolism? Mike Wilson from Laser Precision Markmanship Club joins to talk about running a business in a challenging environment. Markets are down, but consumer spending still up. Dana Bash says CNN does not hate this country.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson cuts his 2025 earnings-per-share forecast for S&P 500 firms to $257 from $271 due to tariffs uncertainty. Wilson’s team also revises its 2026 EPS forecast down to $281 from $303. Wilson speaks with Bloomberg's John Tucker about his forecast. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson probes whether market confidence can return soon as long as tariff policy remains in a state of flux.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing last week's volatility and what to expect going forward.It's Monday, April 14th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.What a month for equity markets, and it's only halfway done! Entering April, we were much more focused on growth risks than inflation risks given the headwinds from AI Capex growth deceleration, fiscal slowing, DOGE and immigration enforcement. Tariffs were the final headwind to face, and while most investors' confidence was low about how Liberation Day would play out, positioning skewed more toward potential relief than disappointment.That combination proved to be problematic when the details of the reciprocal tariffs were announced on April 2nd. From that afternoon's highs, S&P 500 futures plunged by 16.5 per cent into Monday morning. Remarkably, no circuit breakers were triggered, and markets functioned very well during this extreme stress. However, we did observe some forced selling as Treasuries, gold and defensive stocks were all down last Monday. In my view, Monday was a classic capitulation day on heavy volume. In fact, I would go as far as to say that Monday will likely prove to be the momentum low for this correction that began back in December for most stocks; and as far back as a year ago for many cyclicals. This also means that we likely retest or break last week's price lows for the major indices even if some individual stocks have bottomed. We suspect a more durable low will come as early as next month or over the summer as earnings are adjusted lower, and multiples remain volatile with a downward bias given the Fed's apprehension to cut rates – or provide additional liquidity unless credit or funding markets become unstable. As discussed last week, markets are now contemplating a much higher risk of recession than normal – with tariffs acting as another blow to an economy that was already weakening from the numerous headwinds; not to mention the fact that most of the private economy has been struggling for the better part of two years. In my view, there have been three factors supporting headline GDP growth and labor markets: government spending, consumer services and AI Capex – and all three are now slowing.The tricky thing here is that the tariff impact is a moving target. The question is whether the damage to confidence can recover. As already noted, markets moved ahead of the fundamentals; and markets have once again done a better job than the consensus in predicting the slowdown that is now appearing in the data. While everyone can see the deterioration in the S&P 500 and other popular indices, the internals of the equity market have been even clearer. First, small caps versus large caps have been in a distinct downtrend for the past four years. This is the quality trade in a nutshell which has worked so well for reasons we have been citing for years — things like the k-economy and crowding out by government spending that has kept the headline economic statistics higher than they would have been otherwise. This strength has encouraged the Fed to maintain interest rates higher than the weaker cohorts of the economy need to recover. Therefore, until interest rates come down, this bifurcated economy and equity markets are likely to persist. This also explains why we had a brief, yet powerful rally last fall in low quality cyclicals when the Fed was cutting rates, and why it quickly failed when the Fed paused in December. The dramatic correction in cyclical stocks and small caps is well advanced not only in price, but also in time. While many have only recently become concerned about the growth slowdown, the market began pricing it a year ago.Looking at the drawdown of stocks more broadly also paints a picture that suggests the market correction is well advanced, but probably not complete if we end up in a recession or the fear of one gets more fully priced. This remains the key question for stock investors, in my view, and why the S&P 500 is likely to remain in a range of 5000-5500 and volatile – until we have a more definitive answer to this specific question around recession, or the Fed decides to circumvent the growth risks more aggressively, like last fall.With the Fed saying it is constrained by inflation risks, it appears likely to err on the side of remaining on hold despite elevated recession risk. It's a similar performance story at the sector and industry level, with many cohorts experiencing a drawdown equal to 2022. Bottom line, we've experienced a lot of price damage, but it's too early to conclude that the durable lows are in – with policy uncertainty persisting, earnings revisions in a downtrend, the Fed on hold and back-end rates elevated. While it's too late to sell many individual stocks at this point, focus on adding risk over the next month or two as markets likely re-test last week's lows. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Summary   In this episode, Blockchain Wayne interviews Mike Wilson from the Vegas Crypto Group, discussing the evolution of the crypto community, the importance of education and meetups, and the impact of regulatory policies on innovation. They explore upcoming events in Las Vegas, including the Litecoin Summit and Bitcoin Pizza Day, while emphasizing the need for community engagement and support for crypto-friendly politicians. The conversation highlights the significance of privacy and freedom in the crypto space, encouraging listeners to take an active role in the community.   Takeaways   Mike Wilson has been involved in the crypto space for over 30 years. The Vegas Crypto Group hosts various events to build community. Stand With Crypto supports crypto-friendly politicians across the U.S. Privacy is essential for freedom and innovation in crypto. FTX's collapse was a result of fraud, not a crypto issue. Meetups are crucial for educating newcomers about crypto. Bitcoin Pizza Day celebrates the use of Bitcoin as currency. Community engagement is vital for the growth of the crypto industry. Technology creates new jobs, even as it replaces old ones. Everyone is encouraged to get involved in the crypto community.   Chapters   00:00 Introduction to the Crypto Journey 02:56 Building the Vegas Crypto Community 05:53 The Importance of Crypto-Friendly Policies 08:53 The Role of Meetups in Crypto Education 11:46 Upcoming Events in Las Vegas 15:01 The Impact of FTX on Crypto Perception 18:06 The Future of Bitcoin and Community Engagement 21:09 Final Thoughts and Encouragement

During this Podcast you will hear Josh Brown's story, which highlights the importance of decision-making and the potential life-changing dangers of alcohol. Josh, a 2012 Fairmont State University graduate, now gives presentations around the country to young people about the consequences of alcohol addiction, which led to a life-ending tragedy and three years of incarceration. Having started fresh, Josh has made it his mission to mentor young athletes about their potential in life without alcohol and drugs, sharing his story of redemption over the past two years at several high schools and college campuses. For more information, please contact on Josh Brown please visit  The Official Website of Josh Brown For more information regarding the Making After School Cool Podcast please contact Mike Wilson at mwilson@hcde-texas.org

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains why the new tariffs added momentum to a correction that was already underway, and what could ease the fallout in equity markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing equity market reactions to the tariffs and what to expect from here. It's Tuesday, April 8th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it. From our perspective, last week's Liberation Day was more like the cherry on top for a market that had been dealing with multiple headwinds to growth all year, rather than the beginning. While the magnitude of the tariffs turned out to be worse than our public policy team's base line expectations, the price reaction appears capitulatory to us given that many stocks were already down 30 to 40 percent before the announcement on Wednesday. As discussed in last week's podcast, our 5500 first half support level on the S&P 500 quickly gave way given this worse than expected outcome for tariffs. The price action since then has forced us to consider new technical support levels which could be as low as the 200-week moving average. And that would be 4700 on the S&P 500. I think it's worth highlighting that cyclical stocks started underperforming in April of last year and are now down more than 40 percent relative to defensive stocks. In other words, markets have been telling us for almost a year that growth was going to slow, and since January, it's been telling us it's going to slow significantly. In fact, cyclicals have underperformed defensives to a degree only seen during a recession, not prior to them. This fits very nicely with our long-standing view that most of the private economy has been much weaker than the headline numbers suggest – thanks to unprecedented fiscal spending, AI capex and wealthy consumers spending their gains from asset prices. With the exceptional fourth quarter surge in U.S. fiscal spending likely to decline even without DOGE's efforts, global growth impulses will suffer too. Hence, foreign stocks are unlikely to provide much of a safe haven if the U.S. goes on a diet or detox from fiscal spending. Markets began to contemplate such an outcome with last week's announcements. Therefore, I remain of the view we discussed two weeks ago that U.S. equities should trade better than foreign ones going forward. That is especially the case with China, Europe and Japan all which run big current account surpluses and are more vulnerable to weaker trade.Meanwhile, the headline numbers on employment and GDP have been flattered by government related jobs and the hiring of immigrants at below market wages. This is one reason the Fed has kept rates higher than many businesses and consumers need and why we remain in an economy of haves and have-nots. Our long standing thesis is that the government has been crowding out much of the economy since COVID, and arguably since the Great Financial Crisis. It's also why large cap quality has been such a consistent outperformer since the end of 2021 and why we have continued to have high conviction and our recommendation are overweight these factors despite short periods of outperformance by low quality cyclicals or small caps – like last fall when the Fed was cutting rates and we pivoted briefly to a more pro-cyclical recommendation. Bottom line, equity markets are discounting machines and they trade six months in advance of the headlines. With most stocks topping in December of last year and cyclicals' relative performance peaking almost a year ago, this correction is well advanced, and this is not the time to be selling. However, it's fair to say that the tariff announcements last week have taken us to an area with greater tail risk that includes a recession or financial contagion that must be taken into consideration when thinking about levels and adding risk.I see three specific scenarios that could put in a durable floor more quickly:1. President Trump delays the effective date for the implementation of the additional tariffs beyond the initial 10 percent that went into effect this weekend2. The Fed offers support for markets, either explicitly or verbally3. A number of nations come to the table and negotiate on favorable terms to the United States.In short, get ready for another bumpy week and remember markets are looking much further ahead than today's headline. I remain optimistic that the second half will be better than the first as these growth negative policies morph into growth positive ones via de-regulation, a better fiscal trajectory, lower interest rates and taxes and maybe even higher wages for the American consumer.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our analysts Paul Walsh, Mike Wilson and Marina Zavolock debate the relative merits of U.S. and European stocks in this very dynamic market moment.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.

Policy questions and growth risks are likely to persist in the aftermath of the Trump administration's upcoming tariffs. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson outlines how to seek investments that might mitigate the fallout.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast – our views on tariffs and the implications for equity markets. It's Monday, March 31st at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Over the past few weeks, tariffs have moved front and center for equity investors. While the reciprocal tariff announcement expected on April 2nd should offer some incremental clarity on tariff rates and countries or products in scope, we view it as a maximalist starting point ahead of bilateral negotiations as opposed to a clearing event. This means policy uncertainty and growth risks are likely to persist for at least several more months, even if it marks a short-term low for sentiment and stock prices. In the baseline for April 2nd, our policy strategists see the administration focusing on a continued ramp higher in the tariff rate on China – while product-specific tariffs on Europe, Mexico and Canada could see some de-escalation based on the USMCA signed during Trump's first term. Additional tariffs on multiple Asia economies and products are also possible. Timing is another consideration. The administration has said it plans to announce some tariffs for implementation on April 2nd, while others are to be implemented later, signaling a path for negotiations. However, this is a low conviction view given the amount of latitude the President has on this issue. We don't think this baseline scenario prevents upside progress at the index level – as an "off ramp" for Mexico and Canada would help to counter some of the risk from moderately higher China tariffs. Furthermore, product level tariffs on the EU and certain Asia economies, like Vietnam, are likely to be more impactful on a sector basis. Having said that, the S&P 500 upside is likely capped at 5800-5900 in the near term – even if we get a less onerous than expected announcement. Such an outcome would likely bring no immediate additional increase in the tariff rate on China; more modest or targeted tariffs on EU products than our base case; an extended USMCA exemption for Mexico and Canada; and very narrow tariffs on other Asia economies. No matter what the outcome is on Wednesday, we think new highs for the S&P 500 are out of the question in the first half of the year; unless there is a clear reacceleration in earnings revisions breadth, something we believe is very unlikely until the third or fourth quarter.Conversely, to get a sustained break of the low end of our first half range, we would need to see a more severe April 2nd tariff outcome than our base case and a meaningful deterioration in the hard economic data, especially labor markets. This is perhaps the outcome the market was starting to price on Friday and this morning. Looking at the stock level, companies that can mitigate the risk of tariffs are likely to outperform. Key strategies here include the ability to raise price, currency hedging, redirecting products to markets without tariffs, inventory stockpiling and diversifying supply chains geographically. All these strategies involve trade-offs or costs, but those companies that can do it effectively should see better performance. In short, it's typically companies with scale and strong negotiating power with its suppliers and customers. This all leads us back to large cap quality as the key factor to focus on when picking stocks. At the sector level, Capital Goods is well positioned given its stronger pricing power; while consumer discretionary goods appears to be in the weakest position. Bottom line, stay up the quality and size curve with a bias toward companies with good mitigation strategies. And see our research for more details. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The Buck Reising Show Hr 1 - Vols fall to Houston & Mike Wilson See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Buck Reising Show Hr 1 - Vols fall to Houston & Mike Wilson See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, sees the possibility of reciprocal tariffs due this week from President Donald Trump pushing the S&P 500 below 5,500 in the short term, but is “not willing to throw in the towel yet on the full year” target. Wilson spoke with Bloomberg TV.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As credit resilience weakens with a worsening fundamental backdrop, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests investors reconsider their portfolio quality.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why we think near term improvement may be temporary, and thus an opportunity to improve credit quality. It's Friday March 28th at 2pm in London. In volatile markets, it is always hard to parse how much is emotion, and how much is real change. As you would have heard earlier this week from my colleague Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, we see a window for short-term relief in U.S. stock markets, as a number of indicators suggest that markets may have been oversold. But for credit, we think this relief will be temporary. Fundamentals around the medium-term story are on the wrong track, with both growth and inflation moving in the wrong direction. Credit investors should use this respite to improve portfolio quality. Taking a step back, our original thinking entering 2025 was that the future presented a much wider range of economic scenarios, not a great outcome for credit per se, and some real slowing of U.S. growth into 2026, again not a particularly attractive outcome. Yet we also thought it would take time for these risks to arrive. For the economy, it entered 2025 with some pretty decent momentum. We thought it would take time for any changes in policy to both materialize and change the real economic trajectory. Meanwhile, credit had several tailwinds, including attractive yields, strong demand and stable balance sheet metrics. And so we initially thought that credit would remain quite resilient, even if other asset classes showed more volatility. But our conviction in that resilience from credit is weakening as the fundamental backdrop is getting worse. Changes to U.S. policy have been more aggressive, and happened more quickly than we previously expected. And partly as a result, Morgan Stanley's forecasts for growth, inflation and policy rates are all moving in the wrong direction – with forecasts showing now weaker growth, higher inflation and fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than we thought at the start of this year. And it's not just us. The Federal Reserve's latest Summary of Economic Projections, recently released, show a similar expectation for lower growth and higher inflation relative to the Fed's prior forecast path. In short, Morgan Stanley's economic forecasts point to rising odds of a scenario we think is challenging: weaker growth, and yet a central bank that may be hesitant to cut rates to support the economy, given persistent inflation. The rising risks of a scenario of weaker growth, higher inflation and less help from central bank policy temper our enthusiasm to buy the so-called dip – and add exposure given some modest recent weakness. Our U.S. credit strategy team, led by Vishwas Patkar, thinks that U.S. investment grade spreads are only 'fair', given these changing conditions, while spreads for U.S. high yield and U.S. loans should actually now be modestly wider through year-end – given the rising risks. In short, credit investors should try to keep powder dry, resist the urge to buy the dip, and look to improve portfolio quality. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the state of the market in the uncertainty surrounding it. Wilson spoke with Bloomberg's Matt Miller, Katie Greifeld and Sonali Basak.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson discusses investors' outlook following last week's Fed meeting, and lists the key signals to gauge whether stocks can fully rebound from the recent correction. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the recent rally in stocks and why it can continue. It's Monday, March 24th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Last week's Fed meeting appeared to come as a relief to many market participants as Chair Powell seemed to downplay concerns about inflation, offering a bit more emphasis on the growth side of the Fed's mandate. The Fed also made the decision to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff, a development that came sooner than some expected and indicated the Fed is ready to act, if necessary. Looking ahead, investors are now very focused on the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. While this catalyst could offer some incremental clarity on tariff rates and countries and products in scope, we think it's more a starting point for tariff negotiations – as opposed to a clearing event. In short, a Fed put seems closer to being in the money than a Trump put though it probably would require material labor weakness or choppier credit and funding markets. So far, DOGE firings have had little impact on data like jobless claims or the overall unemployment rate. There may also be a lag between when employees are laid off and when these individuals show up as unemployed, given that severance is offered to most. The more important question for labor markets is whether the recent decline in the stock market, fall in confidence and rise in economic trade uncertainty will lead to layoffs in the private economy. Our economists' base case assumes that these factors won't drive an unemployment cycle this year; but payrolls, claims, and the unemployment rate will be critical to monitor to inform that view going forward. As usual, looking at the S&P 500 alone does not fully describe the magnitude of the correction in equities. As I noted last week, equity markets got as oversold in this correction as they were during the bear market of 2022. One could ask: Is this the bottom or the beginning of something more severe? In our experience, it's rare for volatility to end when price momentum is at its lows. However, you can get strong rallies from these conditions which is why we expected one to begin when the S&P 500 reached the bottom end of our first half trading range of 5500 on March 13th. Since then, stocks have rallied with lower quality, higher beta equities leading the bounce, so far. We believe that can continue in the near-term even though we are still advocating higher quality stocks in one's core portfolio for the intermediate term – given weakness in earnings revisions since last November. More specifically, earnings revisions have remained in negative territory for the major U.S. averages all year and have not yet showed signs of bottoming. However, we are starting to see some interesting shifts in revisions trends under the surface. The most notable change here is that the Magnificent 7 earnings revisions look to be stabilizing after a steep decline. This could halt the underperformance of these mega cap stocks in the near term as we head into earnings season and this would help stabilize the S&P 500, in line with our call from two weeks ago. It could also help to attract flows back into the U.S. In our view, one of the reasons why we've seen capital rotate to international markets is that the high-quality leadership cohort of the U.S. equity market began to underperform. So, if this group regains relative strength we could see a rotation back to the U.S. Finally, the weaker U.S. dollar could also reverse the relative earnings revisions downtrend between U.S. and European companies. If you remember, at the end of last year, the U.S. dollar was very strong and provided a headwind to U.S. relative revisions when companies reported fourth quarter results, as we previewed. This may be going the other way for first quarter results season and drive money back to the U.S., at least temporarily. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss recent market trends, economic indicators and touch on the today's positive market movements such as rising stocks, yields, and gold prices, alongside a decrease in the VIX. The discussion covers nuances around tariffs and their market impact, recent earnings reports, and analysts' upgrades and downgrades. Key highlights include insights from Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson on a potentially tradable rally and sector performance analysis, particularly in tech and financials. The conversation also explores the competitive landscape in retail with stocks like Nike, FedEx, Micron, and Boeing, and assesses the effects of recent updates in Chinese equities and other industry sectors. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The Buck Reising Show Hr 1 - Cam Ward Pro Day, Mike Wilson on Vols & Vikings Interest in Ryan TannehillSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Buck Reising Show Hr 1 - Cam Ward Pro Day, Mike Wilson on Vols & Vikings Interest in Ryan TannehillSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom and Brennan had a great conversation with Mike Wilson recently, someone who towers over many but thankfully, is an amazing man of faith. Take a listen to this teaser and then download the full episode below about how God changed his life and all God is doing today in his life. Listen to the full conversation here:Apple: https://bit.ly/4hmCqYQSpotify: https://bit.ly/4bDxfT8Amazon: https://bit.ly/3DjQPHA

Wisconsin.Golf's Rob Hernandez goes in-depth with University of Wisconsin men's golf coach Mike Wilson about his team and its future.

Tom and Brennan had a great conversation with Mike Wilson recently, someone who towers over many but thankfully, is an amazing man of faith. Take a listen to this teaser and then download the full episode below about how God changed his life and all God is doing today in his life. Listen to the full conversation here:Apple: https://bit.ly/4hmCqYQSpotify: https://bit.ly/4bDxfT8Amazon: https://bit.ly/3DjQPHA

Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses his outlook on the markets amid political uncertainty and AI hype. He speaks with Bloomberg's Alix Steel and Scarlet Fu. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Knoxville News Sentinel Mike Wilson joins Robby and Joe to discuss Tennessee Vols' draw in the NCAA Tournament and what they need to do to win.

Robby and Joe discuss the rise of Cam Ward's popularity among Titans fans, Knoxville New Sentinel Mike Wilson joins the guys to talk about the Tennessee Vols in the NCAA Tournament.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the stock market tumble and whether investors can hope for a rally.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the recent Equity Market correction and what to look for next. It's Monday, March 17th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Major U.S. equity Indices are as oversold as they've been since 2022. Sentiment, positioning gauges are bearish, and seasonals improve in the second half of March for earnings revisions and price. Furthermore, recent dollar weakness should provide a tailwind to first quarter earnings season and second quarter guidance, particularly relative to the fourth quarter results; and the decline in rates should benefit economic surprises. In short, I stand by our view that 5,500 on the S&P 500 should provide support for a tradable rally led by lower quality, higher beta stocks that have sold off the most, and it looks like it may have started on Friday. The more important question is whether such a rally is likely to extend into something more durable and mark the end of the volatility we've seen YTD? The short answer is – probably not. First, from a technical standpoint there has been significant damage to the major indices—more than what we witnessed in recent 10 per cent corrections, like last summer. More specifically, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 1000 growth and value indices have all traded straight through their respective 200-day moving averages, making these levels now resistance, rather than support. Meanwhile, many stocks are closer to a 20 per cent correction with the lower quality Russell 2000 falling below its 200 week moving average for the first time since the 2022 bear market. At a minimum, this kind of technical damage will take time to repair, even if we don't get additional price degradation at the index level. In order to forecast a larger, sustainable recovery, it's important to acknowledge what's really been driving this correction. From my conversations with institutional investors, there appears to be a lot of focus on the tariff announcements and other rapid-fire policy announcements from the new administration. While these factors are weighing on sentiment and confidence, other factors started this correction in December. In our year ahead outlook, we forecasted a tougher first half of the year for several reasons. First, stocks were extended on a valuation basis and relative to the key macro and fundamental drivers like earnings revisions, which peaked in early December. Second, the Fed went on hold in mid-December after aggressively cutting rates by 100 basis points over the prior three months. Third, we expected AI capex growth to decelerate this year and investors now have the DeepSeek development to consider. Add in immigration enforcement, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) exceeding expectations, and tariffs – and it's no surprise that growth expectations are hitting equities in the form of lower multiples. As noted, we highlighted these growth headwinds in December and have been citing a first half range for the S&P 500 of 5500-6100 with a preference for large cap quality. Finally, President Trump has recently indicated he is not focused on the stock market in the near term as a barometer of his policies and agenda. Perhaps more than anything else, this is what led to the most recent technical breakdown in the S&P 500. In my view, it will take more than just an oversold market to get more than a tradable rally. Earnings revisions are the most important variable and while we could see some seasonal strength or stabilization in revisions, we believe it will take a few quarters for this factor to resume a positive uptrend. As noted in our outlook, the growth-positive policy changes like tax cuts, de-regulation, less crowding out and lower yields could arrive later in the second half of the year – but we think that's too far away for the market to contemplate for now. Finally, while the Trump put apparently doesn't exist, the Fed put is alive and well, in our view. However, that will likely require conditions to get worse either on growth, especially labor, or in the credit and funding market, neither of which would be equity-positive, initially. Bottom line, a short-term rally from our targeted 5500 level is looking more likely after Friday's price action. It's also being led by lower quality stocks. This helps support my secondary view that the current rally is unlikely to lead to new highs until the numerous growth headwinds are reversed or monetary policy is loosened once again. The transition from a government heavy economy to one that is more privately driven should ultimately be better for many stocks. But the path is going to take time and it is unlikely to be smooth. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the recent market volatility with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson and Bloomberg Opinion contributor Mohamed El-Erian. Global stocks steadied from a selloff and US stock futures signaled a Wall Street bounce, as Bloomberg News reported President Donald Trump will meet with top business executives later in the day. Contracts for the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5% after the index’s deepest slump since 2022, while those on the S&P 500 climbed 0.4%. Tesla Inc. shares rose in premarket trading after Monday’s 15% slide while other tech names including Nvidia Corp. also edged higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was steady while earlier, Asian shares bounced off an intraday five-week low.There was relief for other risk assets too, as Bitcoin stabilized after a five-day selloff and oil prices notched a small bounce from Monday’s drop. However, concerns over the once unstoppable resilience of the US economy continue to support Treasury markets, with 10-year yields edging lower again on Tuesday. The dollar index slid 0.3%.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the recent market volatility with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson and Bloomberg Opinion contributor Mohamed El-Erian. Global stocks steadied from a selloff and US stock futures signaled a Wall Street bounce, as Bloomberg News reported President Donald Trump will meet with top business executives later in the day. Contracts for the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5% after the index’s deepest slump since 2022, while those on the S&P 500 climbed 0.4%. Tesla Inc. shares rose in premarket trading after Monday’s 15% slide while other tech names including Nvidia Corp. also edged higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was steady while earlier, Asian shares bounced off an intraday five-week low.There was relief for other risk assets too, as Bitcoin stabilized after a five-day selloff and oil prices notched a small bounce from Monday’s drop. However, concerns over the once unstoppable resilience of the US economy continue to support Treasury markets, with 10-year yields edging lower again on Tuesday. The dollar index slid 0.3%.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first week of March has been designed at Social Emotional Learning week.  SEL programming in schools and after-school settings is growing, and social and emotional learning standards have been developed in many states at the secondary school level. and the SEL approach is increasingly of interest to those studying adolescent development My guest today is Nora Tejada, a Project Specialist with CASE for Kids.  During this podcast you will hear more about: Learn more about SEL week Ideas to promote Social Emotional Learning in after school How to get SEL resources For more information regarding the Making After School Cool Pocast, contact Mike Wilson at mwilson@hcde-texas.org

Robby and Joe are joined by Knoville News Sentinel Mike Wilson to discuss Tennessee Bolvs basketball, More on NFL QBs, Joe rants about Greg Sankey's thoughts on CFP

Knoxville News Sentinel Mike Wilson joins Robby and Joe to discuss the Tennessee Vols MBB, Jahmai Mashack's impact. Can the Vols go all the way this year?

Hr 4 - Mike Wilson talks UT hoops + Tennessee/Alabama previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel talks UT hoops and previews Tennessee/Alabama this SaturdaySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson of the Knoxville News Sentinel talks UT hoops and previews Tennessee/Alabama this SaturdaySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hr 4 - Mike Wilson talks UT hoops + Tennessee/Alabama previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the challenges to growth for U.S. stocks and why some investors are looking to China and Europe.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing new headwinds for growth and what that means for equities. It's Monday, Feb 24th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Until this past Friday's sharp sell off in stocks, the correlation between bond yields and stocks had been in negative territory since December. This inverse correlation strengthened further into year-end as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield definitively breached 4.5 per cent on the upside for the first time since April of 2024. In November, we had identified this as an important yield threshold for stock valuations. This view was based on prior rate sensitivity equities showed in April of 2024 and the fall of 2023 as the 10-year yield pushed above this same level. In our view, the equity market has been signaling that yields above this point have a higher likelihood of weighing on growth. Supporting our view, interest rate sensitive companies like homebuilders have underperformed materially. This is why we have consistently recommended the quality factor and industries that are less vulnerable to these headwinds.In our year ahead outlook, we suggested the first half of 2025 would be choppier for stocks than what we experienced last fall. We cited several reasons including the upside in yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Since rates broke above 4.5 per cent in mid-December, the S&P 500 has made no progress. Specifically, the 6,100 resistance level that we identified in the fall has proven to be formidable for the time being. In addition to higher rates, softer growth prospects alongside a less dovish Fed are also holding back many stocks. As we have also discussed, falling rates won't help if it's accompanied by falling growth expectations as Friday's sharp selloff in the face of lower rates illustrated. Beyond rates and a stronger US dollar, there are several other reasons why growth expectations are coming down. First, the immediate policy changes from the new administration, led by immigration enforcement and tariffs, are likely to weigh on growth while providing little relief on inflation in the short term. Second, the Dept of Govt Efficiency, or DOGE, is off to an aggressive start and this is another headwind to growth, initially.Third, there appears to have been a modest pull-forward of goods demand at the end of last year ahead of the tariffs, and that impulse may now be fading. Fourth, consumers are still feeling the affordability pinch of higher rates and elevated price levels which weighed on last month's retail sales data. Finally, difficult comparisons, broader awareness of Deep Seek, and the debate around AI [CapEx] deceleration are weighing on the earnings revisions of some of the largest companies in the major indices.All of these items are causing some investors to consider cheaper foreign stocks for the first time in quite a while – with China and Europe doing the best. In the case of China, it's mostly related to the news around DeepSeek and perhaps stimulus for the consumer finally arriving this year. The European rally is predicated on hopes for peace in Ukraine and the German election results that may lead to the loosening of fiscal constraints. Of the two, China appears to have more legs to the story, in my opinion. Our Equity Strategy in the U.S. remains the same. We see limited upside at the index level in the first half of the year but plenty of opportunity at the stock, sector and factor levels. We continue to favor Financials, Software over Semiconductors, Media/Entertainment and Consumer Services over Goods. We also maintain an overriding penchant for quality across all size cohorts.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson — a bearish voice on US stocks until mid-2024 — said he expects capital to return to US stocks, calling the S&P 500 “the highest quality index” with “the best earnings growth prospects.” He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul SweeneySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's episode we recap some of the best moments from Season 2, with John Romero on hits and misses, how Peter Molyneux makes a game, Ed Fries on Xbox's Valentines Day massacre, Warren Spector on how playstyle is everything and much more! 

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategy Mike Wilson suggests that stock, factor and sector selection remain key to portfolio performance.----- Listener Survey -----Complete a short listener survey at http://www.morganstanley.com/podcast-survey and help us make the podcast even more valuable for you. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 to the Feeding America® organization to support their important work.----- Transcript -----Hi, I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Before we get into today's episode, the team behind Thoughts on the Market wants your thoughts and your input. Fill out our listener survey and help us make this podcast even more valuable for you. The link is in the show notes.Plus, help us help the Feeding America organization. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 towards their important work.Thanks for your time and the support. On to the show… Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing equities in the context of higher rates and weaker earnings revisions. It's Tuesday, Feb 18th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it.Since early December, the S&P 500 has made little headway. The almost unimpeded run from the summer was halted by a few things but none as important as the rise in 10-year Treasury yields, in my view. In December, we cited 4 to 4.5 percent as the sweet spot for equity multiples assuming growth and earnings remained on track. We viewed 4.5 percent as a key level for equity valuations. And sure enough, when the Fed leaned less dovish at its December meeting, yields crossed that 4.5 percent threshold; and correlations between stocks and yields settled firmly in negative territory, where they remain. In other words, yields are no longer supportive of higher valuations—a key driver of returns the past few years. Instead, earnings are now the primary driver of returns and that is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future. While the Fed was already increasingly less dovish, the uncertainty on tariffs and last week's inflation data could further that shift with the bond market moving to just one cut for the rest of the year. Our official call is in line with that view with our economists now just looking for just one cut–in June. It depends on how the inflation and growth data roll in. Our strategy has shifted, too. With the S&P 500 reaching our tactical target of 6100 in December and earnings revision breadth now rolling over for the index, we have been more focused on sectors and factors. In particular, we've favored areas of the market showing strong earnings revisions on an absolute or relative basis.Financials, Media and Entertainment, Software over Semiconductors and Consumer Services over Goods continue to fit that bill. Within Defensives, we have favored Utilities over Staples, REITs and Healthcare. While we've seen outperformance in all these trades, we are sticking with them, for now. We maintain an overriding preference for Large-cap quality unless 10-year Treasury yields fall sustainably below 4.5 percent without a meaningful degradation in growth. The key component of 10-year yields to watch for equity valuations remains the term premium – which has come down, but is still elevated compared to the past few years. Other macro developments driving stock prices include the very active policy announcements from the White House including tariffs, immigration enforcement, and cost cutting efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE. For tariffs, we believe they will be more of an idiosyncratic event for equity markets. However, if tariffs were to be imposed and maintained on China, Mexico and Canada through 2026, the impact to earnings-per-share would be roughly 5-7 percent for the S&P 500. That's not an insignificant reduction and likely one of the reasons why guidance this past quarter was more muted than fourth quarter results. Industries facing greater headwinds from China tariffs include consumer discretionary goods and electronics. Lower immigration flow and stock is more likely to affect aggregate demand than to be a wage cost headwind, at least for public companies. Finally, skepticism remains high as it relates to DOGE's ability to cut Federal spending meaningfully. I remain more optimistic on that front, but realize greater success also presents a headwind to growth before it provides a tailwind via lower fiscal deficits and less crowding out of the private economy—things that could lead to more Fed cuts and lower long-term interest rates as term premium falls. Bottom line, higher backend rates and growth headwinds from the stronger dollar and the initial policy changes suggest equity multiples are capped for now. That means stock, factor and sector selection remains key to performance rather than simply adding beta to one's portfolio. On that score, we continue to favor earnings revision breadth, quality, and size factors alongside financials, software, media/entertainment and consumer services at the industry level. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, help us make it even more valuable to you. Share your feedback on the show at morganstanley.com/podcast-survey or head to the episode notes for the survey link.

The Buck Reising Show Hour 1 - Mike Wilson Recaps Vols Big Win over MizzouSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why U.S. stocks took a hit that is likely to sustain through the first half of 2025.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing tariffs, recent developments in AI and what it means for stocks.It's Monday, Feb 3rd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.While 2024 was a strong year for many stocks, it was mostly a second half story. With recession fears peaking last summer and a Fed that remained on hold due to still elevated inflation, markets were essentially flat year-to-date in early August.But then everything changed. The Fed surprised markets with a 50 basis points cut to show its commitment to keeping the economy out of recession. This was followed by better labor data and two more 25 basis points cuts from the Fed. Investors took this as a green light to add more equity to portfolios—the riskier the better. It also became clear to markets and many observers that President Trump was likely going to win the election, with a rising chance of a Republican sweep in Congress. Given the more pro-growth agenda proposed by candidate Trump and his track record during his first term as President, he made investors even more bullish. Finally, given all the concern about a hung election, the fact that we got such definitive results on election night only added fuel to the equation. Hedges were swiftly removed and even reversed to long positions as both asset managers and retail investors chased performance for fear of falling behind, or missing out. In October, I suggested the S&P 500 would likely trade to 6100 on a clean election outcome. After promptly hitting that level in early December, stocks had a very weak month to finish the year with deteriorating breadth. The S&P 500 started the year soft before rallying sharply into inauguration day, essentially re-testing that 6100 level once again. The difference this time is that the re-test occurred on much lower breadth with high quality resuming its leadership role. Tariffs were always on the agenda, as was immigration enforcement, both of which are growth negative in the short-term.In my view, investors simply got complacent about these risks and are now dealing with them in real time. This also fits with our view that the first half of the year was likely to be tougher for stocks as equity negative policies would be implemented immediately before the equity positive policies like de-regulation, tax extensions and reduced government spending had time to play out in the form of less crowding out and lower interest rates. At the Index level, I expect the S&P 500 to trade in a range between 5500 to 6100 for the next 3 to 6 months, with our fourth quarter price target at 6500 remaining intact. Since we have been expecting tariffs to be implemented, this realization only furthers our preference for consumer services over goods. It also supports our preference for financials and other domestically geared businesses that have limited currency or trade exposures. In addition to rising political uncertainty, we also saw the release of DeepSeek's latest AI chat bot last week. This added another level of uncertainty for investors that could have lasting implications at both the stock and index level given the importance of this investment theme. On one hand it could also accelerate the adoption of AI technologies if it truly lowers the cost – but many portfolios will need to adjust for this shift if that's the case. We think it further supports our ongoing preference for software and media over semiconductors. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome back Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Mike reflects on his previous bullish pivot due to improved liquidity and the unexpected resilience of the market. They discuss the importance of earnings forecasts, the impact of liquidity on high-quality stocks, and potential shifts in international flows. The conversation turns to the passive investing trend, potential economic factors affecting interest rates, and the influence of international monetary policies, such as the BOJ's rate decisions. Key topics include the role of earnings revisions, currency impacts on multinationals, and how various sectors might react to the evolving economic landscape. The podcast delves into market valuations, the potential of AI, CapEx cycles, and the broader implications of liquidity. They conclude by discussing investor sentiment, the resilience of high-quality stocks, and the broader economic outlook heading into the first half of the year. -- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.