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The global market for obesity drugs is expanding. Our U.S. Pharma and Biotech Analyst Terrence Flynn discusses what's driving the next stage of global growth for GLP-1 medicines.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Terrence Flynn: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Terrence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Pharma and Biotech Analyst. The market for obesity medicines is at an inflection point, and today I'll focus on what's driving the next stage of global growth.It's Thursday, June 5th at 2pm in New York.GLP-1 medicines have been viewed by many stakeholders as one of the most transformative medications in the market today. They've exploded in popularity over the last few years and become game changers for many people who take them. These drugs have large cap biopharma companies racing to innovate. They've had ripple effects on food, fitness, and fashion. They truly are a major market force. And now we're on the cusp of a significant broadening of use of these medicines.Currently the U.S. is the largest consumer in the world of GLP-1s. But new versions of these medicines suggest that this market will extend beyond the U.S. to significantly larger numbers of patients globally. On our estimate, the Total Addressable Market or TAM for obesity medications should reach $150 billion globally by 2035, with approximately [$]80 billion from the U.S. and [$]70 billion from international markets.Now this marks a meaningful increase from our 2024 forecast of [$]105 billion and reflects a greater appreciation of opportunities outside of the U.S. We think obesity drug adoption will likely accelerate as patients and providers become more familiar with the new products and as manufacturers address hurdles in production, distribution, and access.Current adoption rates of GLP-1 treatments within the eligible obesity population are about 2 to 3 percent. This is in the U.S., and roughly 1 percent in the rest of the world. Now, when we look out further, we anticipate these figures to surge to 20 percent and 10 percent respectively, really driven by five things.First, after a period of shortages, supply constraints have improved, and the drug makers are investing aggressively to increase production. Second new data show that obesity drugs have broader clinical applications. They can be used to treat coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, kidney disease, or even sleep apnea. They could also potentially fight Alzheimer's disease, neuropsychiatric conditions, and even cancer.Third, we think coverage will expand as obesity drugs are approved to treat diseases beyond obesity. Public healthcare coverage through Medicare should also broaden based on these expected approvals. Fourth, some drug makers are successfully developing obesity drugs, in pill form instead of injectables. Pills are of course easier to administer and can reach global scale quickly. And finally, drug makers are also developing next gen medications with even higher efficacy, new mechanisms of action, and more convenient, less frequent dosing.All in all, we think that over the next decade, broader GLP-1 adoption will extend well beyond biopharma. We expect significant impacts on medical technology, healthcare services, and consumer sectors like food, beverages, and fashion, where changes in patient diets could reshape market dynamics.Thanks so much for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Our U.S. and Asia economists Michael Gapen and Chetan Ahya discuss how tariff uncertainty is shaping their expectations for these economies over the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Michael Gapen: Today we'll discuss some significant changes to our Asia growth forecast on the heels of tariffs. As well as how the U.S. economy is reacting to the changes in the global trading environment.It's Friday, April 25th at 8am in New York.Chetan Ahya: And 8pm in Hong Kong.Michael Gapen: So, Chetan, since the last time we were both on the show, it appears that we are headed towards at least some de-escalation of trade tensions. Just last week, you wrote in your report that the tariffs on China are too prohibitive for any trade to take place – and that you expected some dialing down of the escalatory action. And this week the administration started to talk about easing tariffs on China significantly.Considering all the events since April 2nd – and it's felt like a lot of events since April 2nd –where does it leave you in terms of how you are thinking about the outlook?Chetan Ahya: So, Mike, that's right. You know what we thought was that the current level of tariffs that the U.S. has on China and what China has on the U.S. means that effectively there are no transactions possibleBut look, even after those tariff rates are going down, we are still expecting it to be in the range of around 60 per cent. And that would still be relatively high level of tariffs. If I were just to translate this into what it means for the whole region? So, for the whole region, the weighted average tariff will still be around 32 per cent. And remember this number was close to 5 per cent in early January.So, we are talking about a huge amount of uncertainty related to this tariff path and the tariff level itself is going to remain somewhat high.And so, with that concern on uncertainty, we are expecting a region's investment growth to be affected significantly, taking down region's growth lower.Michael Gapen: So, Chetan, I was looking over your growth forecast and noticed that you have a sharp step down in growth from the second quarter of 2025 on. Can you walk us through these revisions in particular?Chetan Ahya: So yes, we have changed our forecast and what we are now seeing is in terms of growth path is that Asia's overall GDP growth will slow from 4.8 per cent that we saw in fourth quarter of last year, to around 3.6 per cent by fourth quarter of this year.And for comparable time period, China's growth will slow from 5.4 to 3.7 [per cent]. So that's another meaningful step down for ChinaMichael Gapen: What do you think Asian economies can do to counteract the impact from tariffs at this point?Chetan Ahya: So, we expect the policy makers in the region to take up both monetary and fiscal policy easing. But, you know, despite that policy easing effort, you will still see that meaningful growth drag. So, for China, we think it'll be the fiscal policy that will do the heavy lifting. Whereas for Asia ex-China is going to be more monetary policy that will do the heavy lifting.And in terms of the exact magnitude, we're expecting 50 to 150 basis points depending upon the economy in the region in form of rate cuts. And specifically on China; on the fiscal policy, we expect them to take up about 2.5 per cent of GDP increase in fiscal deficit in form of investment in infrastructure, as well as some programs for supporting consumption spending.Michael Gapen: So Chetan, it sounds like a lot of monetary and fiscal policy easing and support is coming from the Asian economies. But I guess the bottom line is that you don't think it would be sufficient to fully counteract the impact from tariffs. Is that right?Chetan Ahya: That's right Mike. And let me come to you now and get your thoughts on how you see the development of the tariffs, et cetera, affecting the U.S. economy. You've already recently characterized your view on the U.S. economy as still living on the edge. What's driving this view?Michael Gapen: It's a way that we were trying to communicate that, you know, we don't see the economy at the moment, falling into a recession, but we think it's close. If we thought that the effective tariff rate was going to stay where it was -- or where it is -- roughly around 18 per cent, then we would have a much more negative view on the outlook. And we do expect the effective tariff rate to come down for all the reasons that you suggested there. And there's openings for that, to happen. And that's where the conversation has been going in recent days.And so, I think there's a tension between how much uncertainty can be reduced on one hand. And then on the other hand, how quickly volumes in the economy, activity in the economy may slow. So, I think we're in a window here where – where we are in a race against time to bring the effective tariff rate lower, in order to keep the economy in recovery. So that was really my narrative here where living on the edge, where we're not projecting a recession, but we're close enough to one. That, it's almost a coin toss. And I think we need to backpedal here relatively quickly, or we could have much more negative effects on the economy.Chetan Ahya: And Mike, I remember that, in 2018, we did not see this kind of a reaction in the consumer confidence data, but we are seeing that in this cycle. And on top of it, we have this expectation that corporate confidence will also be weighed down by policy uncertainty. So how does this double whammy of weak confidence feature in your forecast?Michael Gapen: I think the key component or in, in this case two key components for the outlook for the economy – because it's relatively straightforward to try and project or pass through the direct effect of tariffs on consumer spending, real incomes and trade volumes. But what's really hard to understand here is what does a highly uncertain environment do to asset markets and business sentiment?So, the, the two channels here that you mentioned, consumer confidence and business confidence. These are kind of what might get you spill over effects, and a recession.So, for the consumer, what we're really focused on here is, yes. Stated confidence by households is weak, but they're still generally spending. And tariffs affect lower- and middle-income houses more than they do upper income households. So, we're really keyed in on: Do equity markets fall enough? Do we get a negative wealth shock on upper income consumers, where they decide, ‘Hey, I feel less wealthy, therefore I'm going to spend less than save more.'So, then the business sector delays spending and may even, you know, generate some layoffs; and recessions, as you know, happen when there's a lot of negative feedback loops in the economy. And so, this is what we're worried about.Chetan Ahya: Another interesting debate, that we as a team are having with the investors is about the Fed policy response. And so, Fed Chair Powell has said that tariffs would generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. How do you think the Fed will handle a tariff induced spike in inflation?Michael Gapen: So, there has been an evolution in the Fed's thought and thinking around how to handle tariffs. Given the dramatic increase in tariffs,, I think the Fed has to wait and they have to see the actual data come in.So, in our view, with inflation rising first and activity weakening later, you probably don't get any Fed cuts this year. And the Fed moves to rate cuts in 2026. If we're wrong in the economy, and, and it decelerates, and moves into a recession more quickly than we would anticipate, and the labor market deteriorates rapidly, then the Fed will ease.But what they're doing here is they're responding to a world where both sides of their mandate are getting worse. And they're going to respond to the one that's more offsides than the other. And in the short run, we think that'll be inflation. So, it means the Fed moves much later than markets currently expect.Chetan Ahya: In terms of the next set of data points or events that you're watching, uh, which can change your view on the growth outlook – what are you really, looking out for?Michael Gapen: Well, I think in the very short run, it's looking at all the inflation data and seeing whether or not the higher tariff rates are getting passed through to the final consumer. We think a little of that will show up in the April inflation data that's due out in the middle of May. That'll be mainly around autos. But then we think the May, June, and July data will begin to show much more increase in goods prices from the tariff pass through. So, we'll be kind of watching that to see whether the inflation impulse is as strong as we think it will be.Second, I think in the very short run, we'll be watching trade volumes. We'll be watching even, shipping container volumes.We'll be watching for blank sales where ships skip ports because there's just not any activity or demand. And then finally, I'd say employment, right? Obviously, expansion versus contraction and whether the economy will stay in expansion phase will be dependent on whether employment continues to grow. We'll get an early look on that. For the April employment data in early May. We don't think there'll be much negative imprint on April employment, but as we move into May, June, and July, we could see hiring slow down more rapidly.So, Chetan, that's what I would point to – just ascertaining the near-term inflation impulse, looking out for any sharp slowdown in trade volumes and whether or not the labor market holds up.Michael Gapen: Before we close, based on what I just described about the U.S. and also how you're thinking about the tariff situation, how would you differentiate the economies in your part of the world? I only have to deal with one. You have to deal with many. How would you differentiate between economies in your region right now?Chetan Ahya: So Mike, what we've tried to do is to think about this more from which economies are more trade oriented and which economies are less trade oriented. Because we are aware about the fact that there is going to be an overall trade slowdown for the region. And so, in that context, India and Australia are the ones we think will be, relatively less affected from this trade slowdown and global growth slowdown. Whereas more trade-oriented economies, which is, you know, the likes of Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia would be getting more affected.; The reality is that China is facing the maximum amount of tariffs within the region. And therefore we are building in a bit more growth slowdown in case of China, even while its trade orientation is a bit lower than Korea and Taiwan.Michael Gapen: Chetan, thanks for taking time to talk today.Chetan Ahya: Great speaking with you, Mike,Michael Gapen: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
As credit resilience weakens with a worsening fundamental backdrop, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests investors reconsider their portfolio quality.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why we think near term improvement may be temporary, and thus an opportunity to improve credit quality. It's Friday March 28th at 2pm in London. In volatile markets, it is always hard to parse how much is emotion, and how much is real change. As you would have heard earlier this week from my colleague Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, we see a window for short-term relief in U.S. stock markets, as a number of indicators suggest that markets may have been oversold. But for credit, we think this relief will be temporary. Fundamentals around the medium-term story are on the wrong track, with both growth and inflation moving in the wrong direction. Credit investors should use this respite to improve portfolio quality. Taking a step back, our original thinking entering 2025 was that the future presented a much wider range of economic scenarios, not a great outcome for credit per se, and some real slowing of U.S. growth into 2026, again not a particularly attractive outcome. Yet we also thought it would take time for these risks to arrive. For the economy, it entered 2025 with some pretty decent momentum. We thought it would take time for any changes in policy to both materialize and change the real economic trajectory. Meanwhile, credit had several tailwinds, including attractive yields, strong demand and stable balance sheet metrics. And so we initially thought that credit would remain quite resilient, even if other asset classes showed more volatility. But our conviction in that resilience from credit is weakening as the fundamental backdrop is getting worse. Changes to U.S. policy have been more aggressive, and happened more quickly than we previously expected. And partly as a result, Morgan Stanley's forecasts for growth, inflation and policy rates are all moving in the wrong direction – with forecasts showing now weaker growth, higher inflation and fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than we thought at the start of this year. And it's not just us. The Federal Reserve's latest Summary of Economic Projections, recently released, show a similar expectation for lower growth and higher inflation relative to the Fed's prior forecast path. In short, Morgan Stanley's economic forecasts point to rising odds of a scenario we think is challenging: weaker growth, and yet a central bank that may be hesitant to cut rates to support the economy, given persistent inflation. The rising risks of a scenario of weaker growth, higher inflation and less help from central bank policy temper our enthusiasm to buy the so-called dip – and add exposure given some modest recent weakness. Our U.S. credit strategy team, led by Vishwas Patkar, thinks that U.S. investment grade spreads are only 'fair', given these changing conditions, while spreads for U.S. high yield and U.S. loans should actually now be modestly wider through year-end – given the rising risks. In short, credit investors should try to keep powder dry, resist the urge to buy the dip, and look to improve portfolio quality. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
While tariffs continue to dominate headlines, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas suggests investors should also focus on the sectoral impacts of additional U.S. policy choices.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today, we'll be talking about U.S. policy impacts on the market that aren't about tariffs.It's Wednesday, March 12th, at 10:30am in New York.If tariffs are dominating your attention, we sympathize. Again this week we heard the U.S. commit to raising tariffs and work out a resolution, this time all within the span of a workday. These twists and turns in the tariff path are likely to continue, but in the meantime it might make sense for investors to take some time to look away – instead focusing on some key sectoral impacts of U.S. policy choices that our Research colleagues have called out. For example, Andrew Percoco, who leads our Clean Energy Equity Research team, calls out that clean Energy stocks may be pricing in too high a probability of an Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) repeal. He cites a letter signed by 18 Republicans urging the speaker of the house to protect some of the energy tax credits in the IRA. That's a good call out, in our view. Republicans' slim majority means only a handful need to oppose a legislative action in order to block its enactment. Another example is around Managed Care companies. Erin Wright, who leads our Healthcare Services Research Effort, analyzed the impact to companies of cuts to the Medicaid program and found the impact to their sector's bottom line to be manageable. So, keeping an in-line view for the sector. We think the sector won't ultimately face this risk, as, like with the IRA, we do not expect there to be sufficient Republican votes to enact the cuts. Finally, Patrick Wood, who leads the Medtech team, caught up with a former FDA director to talk about how staffing cuts might affect the industry. In short, expect delays in approvals of new medical technologies. In particular, it seems the risk is most acute in the most cutting edge technologies, where skilled FDA staff are hard to find. Neurology and brain/computer interfaces stand out as areas of development that might slow in this market sector. All that said, if you just can't turn away from tariffs, we reiterate our guidance here: Tariffs are likely going up, even if the precise path is uncertain. And whether or not you're constructive on the goals the administration is attempting to achieve, the path to achieving them carries costs and execution risk. Our U.S. economics team's recent downgrade of the U.S. growth outlook for this and next year exemplifies this. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Our U.S. Public Policy and Currency analysts, Ariana Salvatore and Andrew Watrous, discuss why the dollar fell at the beginning of the first Trump administration and whether it could happen again this year. ----- Transcript ----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist.Andrew Watrous: And I'm Andrew Watrous, G10 FX Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Ariana Salvatore: Today, we'll focus on the U.S. dollar and how it might fare in global markets during the first year of the new Trump administration.It's Tuesday, March 4th at 10am in New York.So, Andrew, a few weeks ago, James Lord came on to talk about the foreign exchange volatility. Since then, tariffs and trade policy have been in the news. Last night at midnight, 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada went into effect, in addition to 10 percent on China. So, let's set the scene for today's conversation. Is the dollar still dominant in global currency markets?Andrew Watrous: Yes, it is. The U.S. dollar is used in about $7 trillion worth of daily FX transactions. And the dollar's share of all currency transactions has been pretty stable over the last few decades. And something like 80 percent of all trade finance is invoiced in dollars, and that share has been pretty stable too.A big part of that dollar dominance is because of the depth and safety of the Treasury security market.Ariana Salvatore: That makes sense. And the dollar fell in 2017, the first year of the Trump administration. Why did that happen?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, so 2017 gets a lot of client attention because the Fed was hiking, there was a lot of uncertainty about would happen in NAFTA, and the U.S. passed a fiscally expansionary budget bill that year.So, people have asked us, ‘Why the U.S. dollar went down despite all those factors?' And I think there are three reasons. One is that even though the possibility that the U.S. could leave NAFTA was all over the headlines that year, U.S. tariffs didn't actually go up. Another factor is that global growth turned out to be really strong in 2017, and that was helped in part by fiscal policy in China and Europe. And finally, there were some political risks in Europe that didn't end up materializing.So, investors took a sigh of relief about the possibility that I think had been priced in a bit that the Eurozone might break up. And then a lot of those factors went into reverse in 2018 and the U.S. dollar went up.Ariana Salvatore: So, applying that framework with those factors to today, is it possible that we see a repeat of 2017 in terms of the U.S. dollar decline?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, I think it's likely that the U.S. dollar continues to go lower for some of the same reasons as we saw in 2017. So, I think that compared to 2017, there's a lot more U.S. dollar positive risk premium around trade policy. So, the bar is higher for the U.S. dollar to go up just from trade headlines alone.And just like in 2017, European policy developments could be a tailwind to the euro. We've been highlighting the potential for German fiscal expansion as European defense policy comes into focus. And unlike in 2017, when the Fed was raising rates, now the Fed is probably going to cut more this year. So that's a headwind to the dollar that didn't exist back in 2017.So, on trade, Ariana. What developments do you expect? Do you think that Trump's new policies will make 2025 different in any way from 2017?Ariana Salvatore: So, taking a step back and looking at this from a very high level, a few things are different in spite of the fact that we're actually talking about a lot of similar policies. Tariffs and tax policy were a big focus in 2017 to 2019, and to be sure, this time around, they are too, but in a slightly different way.So, for example, on tax cuts, we're not talking about bringing rates lower on the individual and corporate side. We're talking about extending current policy. And on tariffs and trade policy, this round I would characterize as much broader, right? So, Trump has scoped in a broader range of trading partners into the discussion like Mexico and Canada; and is talking about a starting point that level-wise is much higher than what we saw in the whole 2018 2019 trade friction period.The highest rate back then we ever saw was 25 percent, and that was on the final batch of Chinese goods, that list four. Whereas this time, we're talking about 25 percent as a starting point for Mexico and Canada.I think sequencing is also a really important distinction. In 2017, we saw the tax cuts through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) come first, followed by trade tensions in 2018 to 2019. This time around, it's really the inverse. Republicans just passed their budget resolution in the House. That lays the groundwork for the tax cut extensions.But in the meantime, Trump has been talking about tariff implementation since before he was even elected. And we've already had a number of really key trade related catalysts in the just six weeks or so that he's been in office.Andrew Watrous: So, you mentioned expectations for fiscal policy. What are recent developments there, and what do you think will happen with U.S. fiscal?Ariana Salvatore: I mentioned the budget resolution in the house that was passed last week. And you can really think of that as the starting point for the reconciliation process to kick off. And consequently, the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.To be clear, we think that House Republicans will be able to align behind extending most of the expiring Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but that's still in the books until the end of 2025. So, we see many months needed to kind of build this consensus among cohorts of the Republican caucus in Congress, and we already know there's some key sticking points in the discussion.What happens with the SALT [State and Local Tax] cap? What sort of clawbacks occur with the Inflation Reduction Act? All these are disagreements that right now are going to need time to work their way through Congress. So not a lot of alignment just yet. We think it's going to take most of the year to get there.But ultimately, we do see an extension of most of the TCJA, which is like I said, current law until the end of 2025.But Andrew from what I understand when it comes to fiscal policy, there are really two stages in terms of the market impact that we saw in the last administration. Can you walk us through those?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, so one lesson from 2016 to 2018 is that there were really two stages of when fiscal developments boosted the dollar. The first was right after the U.S. election in 2016, and the second was much later after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed. So right after the 2016 election, within a couple of weeks, the dollar index rallied from 98 up to 103, and 10-year Treasury yields rose as well.And then things sort of moved sideways in between these two stages. Ten-year Treasury yield just moved sideways. Fiscal wasn't as supportive to the U.S. dollar. And as we know, the dollar went down. And then we had the second stage more than a year later. So, the TCJA was passed in December 2017. And then the dollar rallied after that along with the rise in Treasury yield.So, we think that now, what we've seen is actually very similar to what happened in 2017, where the dollar and yields moved a lot after the 2024 election; but now the budget reconciliation process probably won't be a tailwind to the dollar until after a tax cuts extension passes Congress. And as you mentioned, that's not going to be for many, many months. So, in the interim, we think there's a lot of room for the dollar to go down.Ariana Salvatore: And just to level set our expectations there to your point, it is probably going to be later this year. House Republicans have to align on a number of key sticking points. So, we have passage somewhere on the third or fourth quarter of 2025.But when we think about the fiscal picture, aside from the deficit and the macro impacts, a really key component is going to be what these tax changes mean for the equity market. The extension of certain tax policies will matter more for certain sectors versus others. For example, we know that extending some of the corporate provisions, aside from the lower rate, will have an impact across domestically oriented industries like industrials, healthcare, and telecom.But Andrew, to bring it back to this discussion, I want to think a little bit more about how we can loop in our expectations for the equity market and map that to certain dollar outcomes. How do you think that this as a barometer has changed, if at all, from Trump's first term?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, currency strategists like me love talking about yield differentials. But from 2016 to 2018, the U.S. dollar did not trade in line with yield differentials. Instead, in the initial years of President Trump's first term, equities were a much better barometer than interest rates for where the U.S. dollar would go.After President Trump was elected in 2016, U.S. stocks really outperformed stocks in the rest of the world, and the U.S. dollar went up. Then in 2017, stocks outside the U.S. caught up to the move in U.S. stocks, and the U.S. dollar fell. Then in 2018, all that went into reverse, and U.S. stocks started outperforming again, and the U.S. dollar went up.So, what we've been seeing in stocks today really echoes 2017, not 2018. Stocks outside the U.S. have caught up to the post election rise in U.S. stocks. And so, just like it did in 2017, we think that the U.S. dollar will decline to catch up to that move in relative stock indices.Ariana Salvatore: Finally, Andrew, we already discussed the U.S. dollar negative drivers from 2017. But what happened to these drivers the following year in 2018? And is that any indication for what might happen in 2026?Andrew Watrous: So 2018, as you mentioned, does offer a blueprint for how the U.S. dollar could go up. So, for example, if trade tensions evolve in a direction where our economists would have to significantly downwardly revise their global growth forecasts, then the U.S. dollar could start to look more attractive as a safe haven. And in 2018, there was a big rise in long-end Treasury yields. That's not what we're calling for; but if that were to happen, then the U.S. dollar could catch a bid.Ariana Salvatore: Andrew, thanks for taking the time to talk.Andrew Watrous: Great speaking with you, Ariana.Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Two recent surveys indicate that U.S. consumer confidence has shown a notable decline amid talks about inflation and potential tariff. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses the market implications.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about the consumer side of the confidence debate. It's Thursday, February 27th at 2pm in London. Two weeks ago on this program I discussed signs that uncertainty in U.S. government policy might be hitting corporate confidence, as evidenced by an unusually slow start to the year for dealmaking. That development is a mixed bag. Less confidence and more conservatism in companies holds back investment and reduces the odds of the type of animal spirits that can drive large gains. But it can be a good thing for lenders, who generally prefer companies to be more cautious and more risk-averse. But this question of confidence is also relevant for consumers. And today, I want to discuss what some of the early surveys suggest and how it can impact our view.To start with something that may sound obvious but is nonetheless important, Confidence is an extremely powerful psychological force in the economy and financial markets. If you feel good enough about the future, you'll buy a stock or a car with little regard to the price or how the economy might feel at the moment. And if you're worried, you won't buy those same things, even if your current conditions are still ok, or if the prices are even cheaper. Confidence, you could say, can trump almost everything else. And so this might help explain the market's intense focus on two key surveys over the last week that suggested that US consumer confidence has been deteriorating sharply.First, a monthly survey by the University of Michigan showed a drop in consumer confidence and a rise in expected inflation. And then a few days later, on Tuesday, a similar survey from the Conference Board showed a similar pattern, with consumers significantly more worried about the future, even if they felt the current conditions hadn't much changed. While different factors could be at play, there is at least circumstantial evidence that the flurry of recent U.S. policy actions may be playing a role. This drop in confidence, for example, was new, and has only really showed up in the last month or two. And the University of Michigan survey actually asks its respondents how news of Government Economic policy is impacting their level of confidence. And that response, over the last month, showed a precipitous decline. These confidence surveys are often called ‘soft' data, as opposed to the hard economic numbers like the actual sales of cars or heavy equipment. But the reason they matter, and the reason investors listened to them this week, is that they potentially do something that other data cannot. One of the biggest challenges that investors face when looking at economic data is that financial markets often anticipate, and move ahead of turns in the underlying hard economic numbers. And so if expectations are predictive of the future, they may provide that important, more leading signal. One weak set of consumer confidence isn't enough to change the overall picture, but it certainly has our attention. Our U.S. economists generally agree with these respondents in expecting somewhat slower growth and stickier inflation over the next 18 months; and Morgan Stanley continues to forecast lower bond yields across the U.S. and Europe on the expectation that uncertainties around growth will persist. For credit investors, less confidence remains a double-edged sword, and credit markets have been somewhat more stable than other assets. But we would view further deterioration in confidence as a negative – given the implications for growth, even if it meant a somewhat easier policy path. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
WaPo is reporting that there are more migrant deaths at southern border than U.S. and Mexico have reported. Why is the U.S. and Mexican government lying about something like that? The data shows that at least 1,107 people drowned trying to cross the Rio Grande River in the seven years from 2017 to 2023. The deaths peaked in 2022 as the number of people trying to enter the United States soared. A rising number of women were among the dead. In 2023, more than 1 in 10 drownings involved a child. Our U.S. government and businesses are to thank for this influx. U.S. Businesses and companies have abused cheap, illegal labor for far too long, and it's got to end. There are no more excuses — hire legal workers or pay the price. Guest: Victor Avila - Ret. Supervisory Special Agent, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE)Sponsors: My PillowWww.mypillow.com/johnPromo code ‘John' for max savings on all products!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
WaPo is reporting that there are more migrant deaths at southern border than U.S. and Mexico have reported. Why is the U.S. and Mexican government lying about something like that? The data shows that at least 1,107 people drowned trying to cross the Rio Grande River in the seven years from 2017 to 2023. The deaths peaked in 2022 as the number of people trying to enter the United States soared. A rising number of women were among the dead. In 2023, more than 1 in 10 drownings involved a child. Our U.S. government and businesses are to thank for this influx. U.S. Businesses and companies have abused cheap, illegal labor for far too long, and it's got to end. There are no more excuses — hire legal workers or pay the price. Guest: Victor Avila - Ret. Supervisory Special Agent, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE)Sponsors: My PillowWww.mypillow.com/johnPromo code ‘John' for max savings on all products!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Our U.S. Retail Analyst Simeon Gutman discusses shoppers' embrace of a private labels super cycle and how changing consumer behavior could fundamentally change grocery and discount retailers.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley's US Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail Analyst. Today, we'll talk about a fascinating shift in the retail landscape: the rise of private label products and what this could mean for the future of grocery and discount retailers.It's Thursday, December 12, at 10am in New York.Think about your recent trip to your favorite grocery store. As you reached towards the shelves for your preferred brand of mayonnaise, frozen pizza, or bread, you may have noticed that more and more shelves are stocked with store-brand products. Products that not only match the quality of national brands but often exceed it. This isn't just a minor trend. We estimate private label sales growth will accelerate by 40 per cent to reach $462 billion by 2030. An expansion that will redefine market dynamics significantly.In essence, we think the private label grocery market is on the cusp of a super cycle. This super cycle is a by-product of COVID-era shifts in the way that customers shop and how retailers invest into this trend. At the same time, private label groceries reflect the rise of mega platforms, which are taking ever greater consumer wallet share and are innovating more than ever before.When you look at macro drivers, US consumers have been navigating a difficult post-COVID environment. While inflation is currently moderating, overall food prices remain 30-34 per cent above their 2018 levels. Most consumers are spending more on food at home vs. food away from home, which is a positive catalyst for private label acceleration. Further, consumers are willing to substitute lower priced goods, especially groceries, and these categories present a growth opportunity for private labels. This is the tipping point that we're talking about. High costs, recent innovation, and innovation like we've never seen before – with the rise of these mega platforms, this industry looks like it's ripe for disruption.The market views private label penetration as a slow, gradual, and ongoing event. But our work challenges this premise. We believe the rate of change in private label growth will accelerate substantially over the next few years. We think private label products will grow at double the rate of the overall grocery market bringing private label market penetration from about 19 per cent in 2023 to about 23 per cent by 2030.This growth is not just about stocking up the shelves. It's about changing consumer perceptions and behavior. Consumers increasingly see private labels as viable alternatives to national brands because they often offer better value and innovation. From healthier ingredients, like no more seed oils, to organic products that you had no idea they can produce, to premium products like frozen lobster ravioli to mushroom and truffle pizza. There are a couple of retailers in the US that are all private label and they are among the fastest growing ones, taking away the stigma of what private label products could mean.So what does this mean for the broader retail and consumer packaged good industries? For grocers and discounters with already strong private label offerings, this shift presents a significant opportunity for growth. It's also accretive to margins. On the flip side, traditional food companies might face increased competition. These companies have historically relied on brand superiority. But as private label gains market share – particularly in food categories – these national brands could see a hit to their gross profit growth, which could fall from 3 per cent historically to about 2 per cent. And while household and personal care categories have seen some resilience against private label encroachment, the ongoing economic pressures and shifts in consumer spending habits could challenge the status quo.Looking ahead, the rise of private labels could lead to a reevaluation of what brands mean to consumers. As private label becomes synonymous with quality and value, we may see a new era in which traditional brand loyalty becomes less significant compared to product quality and cost-effectiveness.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Our U.S. Public Policy and Valuation, Accounting & Tax strategists assess the possible scenarios in the upcoming elections, and what they could mean for both taxpayers and the market.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's US public policy strategist.Todd Castagno: And I'm Todd Costagno, Head of Global Valuation, Accounting, and Tax Research at Morgan Stanley.Ariana Salvatore: With less than a week to go until the US election, the race is still neck and neck. Today, we dig into a key issue voters care about: Taxes.Todd Castagno: It's Tuesday, October 29th at 10am in New York.So, Ariana. Taxes are an issue that impact both businesses and individuals. It's a key component of both candidates plans and proposals. How have they evolved over the campaign?Ariana Salvatore: I'd say in general we do tend to see a lot of overlap between Harris' proposals and the ones that the Democrats were campaigning on before she took over the mantle from President Biden in July. That being said, in some instances, her plans go beyond what was requested in the president's fiscal year [20]25 budget request.For example, that $6,000 credit for newborns and the $25,000 homebuyer tax credit. These are areas where we've seen her campaign go beyond the scope of what Biden was campaigning on while he was still in the race. Of course, it's important to remember that any of these proposals would have to pass muster in a Democrat controlled or a split Congress – meaning that there will be some tempering of these plans at the margin.Todd Castagno: So former President Trump campaigned in his first election on tax policy. He's campaigning on tax policy in his current campaign. What are his plans and views?Ariana Salvatore: We've been talking about the Republican sweep outcome as the most deficit expansionary from tax policy changes because Republicans understandably have more fealty to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.That law is set to expire by the end of next year. So, in a Trump win scenario plus Republican Congress, we think you can get most of that 2017 law extended. While in a Trump win scenario with divided government, it's probably a little bit narrower. In general, as I said, deficits skew larger in Republican win outcomes for that reason, with an asymmetry across the other election scenarios. That being said, we do still expect to see deficit expansion in 2026, regardless of who's in power, because these tax cuts will be extended one way or another.But Todd, you've done a lot of work in this area and there are some substantial impacts from a potential corporate rate increase to think through. Can you give us a little bit of detail on what that kind of increase would mean for stocks and bonds?Todd Castagno: Yeah. So, investors have been very focused on the rate and where it matters and where it does not matter. So, if you really think about it, most companies that are exposed to a rate increase or decrease are domestic oriented, consumer companies, retail companies, you know, hospital facilities, industrials; those are the most exposed to a rate increase.Multinationals this time around are less exposed. So, if we go back to 2017, we think about it; that was a different story. We had $2 trillion of trapped cash on the sidelines that did come back – buybacks, dividends, corporate hiring. You know, this time around, that's a different story. So there is exposure but it's mainly consumer-oriented companies.Ariana Salvatore: That makes sense. And you mentioned the 2017 almost as a blueprint for what we saw last time. You mentioned dividends and buybacks.Do you have any sense of how this time around could be different? What do we think companies would likely spend these tax cuts on?Todd Castagno: Well, there are tax cuts. I do think it's going to be different. I do think the $2 trillion does not exist. That's not going to happen. So, you're going to have fewer buybacks, fewer dividends. But you could see some changes in employment. You could see some changes in investment. Things like upfront expensing could help boost the economy, higher jobs, et cetera.One thing, Ariana. You know, tax cuts are expensive. I think that's what we've all contemplated for almost 10 years now. How are we going to pay for these in this new world?Ariana Salvatore: Well Republicans have proposed a few different pay forwards. But to your point, we're not in the same environment as 2017, and we don't expect to see the same ones that were part of the original Tax Cuts and Jobs Act negotiations this time around. Specifically, former President Trump has talked about not extending the SALT cap, which was a revenue raiser that capped the amount of deductions some individuals could take between state and federal taxes. That provision raised about $900 billion over 10 years.Republicans in general are mainly focused on peeling back some parts of the IRA – or the Inflation Reduction Act – as a cost saving measure, as well as letting some of the tax cuts from the 2017 law roll off.We contrast that with the Democrat sweep outcome, where we could see a corporate rate increase to 25 per cent in our view, in spite of Harris' pledge to bring it up to 28 per cent from the current 21 per cent.Todd Castagno: So, we could talk about the Inflation Reduction Act for a second. You know, that was a bill that was designed to bring energy, clean energy manufacturing back to the United States.It was a very large bill; it was partisan. But what do we think about in this next election outcome of actually repealing some of those items?Ariana Salvatore: It's a great question. And Republicans on the campaign trail have been talking a lot about peeling back the IRA. Importantly, in our view, we don't think a full-scale repeal is likely even in a Republican sweep outcome. There are a few reasons for that, but mainly because if you look at where these projects are being located, it's in Republican held states and districts. And Republicans in the house currently have said that they're not interested in rolling back the law. That being said, there are ways to potentially cap the amount of outstanding money that has not yet been allocated.And the president could work with the treasury or other federal agencies to tighten up some of the criteria or the guidance around accessing some of the tax credits that will limit the overall deployment.Todd Castagno: I think the recent Supreme Court decision also plays into that.With candidates' tax plans – I've run a lot of numbers from a company perspective. You've run a lot of numbers top down from a deficit perspective. What did you come to view?Ariana Salvatore: We do see deficits expanding in 2026 and beyond. That's because, in our view, it's not really in lawmakers' interest to allow all of the tax cuts – both individual and corporate – from 2017 to expire. We think the largest extension, as I mentioned before, comes in a Republican sweep. But in general, in some form or another, we think that at least a portion of these lower tax rates are going to stay around.That adds $2.8 trillion to the deficit over 10 years on the high end per our estimates; and $700 billion over 10 years in our smallest expansion scenario, a Democrat sweep.So finally, Todd, in either win outcome, what's the timeline of key tax-related events that investors should be paying attention to?Todd Castagno: So, this is the trillion-dollar question. So, most of the individual side of the tax cuts and jobs act expires at the end of 2025. There are certain business provisions that have already started to phase out. There are certain provisions that are permanent, like the corporate rate.When will Congress get to this? They will get to it at some point, but we just don't know when that is. Could it be early 2025? Could it be 2026? And I think investors should pay attention to that because Congress doesn't always act on time; and we also don't know what the extensions will look like. Some things could be extended three years, five years, 10 years. Some things could be permanent.So that's the jigsaw puzzle that we'll have to put together after the election.Ariana Salvatore: Great. Well, I guess three things in life are certain – death, taxes, and the fact that we will be following this issue very closely.Todd, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Todd Castagno: Great to speak with you.Ariana Salvatore: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
The United States election is less than two weeks away and it's still anybody's game... or is it? Today we take a look at the polls, what they actually mean, and if they can predict the election ahead of time with any certainty. Our U.S correspondent Amelia Lester walks us through the polls and the potential outcomes on November 5. THE END BITS Subscribe to Mamamia Check out The Quicky Instagram here Liked this episode? Listen to these: The Biggest Revelations From Melania Trump's Memoir We Watched The Vice Presidential Debate So You Don't Have To From Abortion Rights To Celeb Endorsements: The Democratic National Convention 2024Harris Is Officially In The Race, But Trump's Women Are Rallying Behind Him Women In Power; Why Kamala Harris Understood The Assignment Project 2025 & Another 4 Years Of Trump: What You Need To Know Want to try MOVE by Mamamia?Click here to start a seven-day free trial of our exercise app. GET IN TOUCH Share your story, feedback, or dilemma! Send us a voice note or email us at thequicky@mamamia.com.au CREDITS Host: Claire Murphy With thanks to: Amelia Lester, Deputy Editor Foreign Policy Magazine Executive Producer: Taylah Strano Audio Producer: Tegan Sadler Become a Mamamia subscriber: https://www.mamamia.com.au/subscribeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In today's digital age, the integrity of our elections faces unprecedented threats from malicious actors. Our U.S. local elections are particularly vulnerable to these global threats, making it more crucial than ever to build cybersecurity resilience to safeguard our election security system. This podcast explores the critical issue of election security, emphasizing the need for a collaborative and proactive approach. Join this talk as we delve into the bipartisan nature of election threats, highlighting the shared vulnerabilities faced by campaigns across the political spectrum. We discuss actionable steps that individuals, campaigns, and organizations can take to enhance their cybersecurity posture. Speakers: Andrew Schoka, Founder, VoterGuard Tatyana Sanchez, Content & Program Coordinator, RSAC Kacy Zurkus, Senior Content Manager, RSAC
Our U.S. Open series of podcasts continues this week with Angela Moser. She was the lead designer of Pinehurst No. 10, the resort's newest golf course in nearly three decades. While Tom Doak receives credit as the main designer, Moser played a daily and intricate role in building and shaping the course which opened in April to rave reviews. Moser is immensely talented as a landscape architect and golf course designer but does so in a male-dominated industry. Originally from Germany, Moser has traveled the world under Doak's guidance for more than 10 years and has more than earned the respect of her boss and her peers. Check out the latest Paradise in the Pines from the U.S. Open as Moser talks about creating Pinehurst No. 10 and how she made her way within the golf industry. @pinehurstresort @GolfDigest @GolfChannel @visitnc #visitnc #homeofamericangolf
Our U.S. correspondent, Mitch McCann takes a look back at another week in US Politics including the big names and the rising stars at the Democratic National Convention.
Our U.S. correspondent Michael Arria and Mondoweiss founder Phil Weiss speak about Kamala Harris' record on Israel/Palestine, Netanyahu's controversial address to Congress, and the growing impact of activism on the national conversation. - - - - - Support our work Help us continue our critical, independent coverage of events in Palestine, Israel, and related U.S. politics. Donate today at https://mondoweiss.net/donate Share this podcast Share The Mondoweiss Podcast with your followers on Twitter. Click here to post a tweet! If you enjoyed this episode, head over to Podchaser, leave us a review, and follow the show! Follow The Mondoweiss Podcast wherever you listen Amazon Apple Podcasts Audible Deezer Gaana Google Podcasts Overcast Player.fm RadioPublic Spotify TuneIn YouTube Our RSS feed We want your feedback! Email us Leave us an audio message at SparkPipe More from Mondoweiss Subscribe to our free email newsletters: Daily Headlines Weekly Briefing The Shift tracks U.S. politics Palestine Letter West Bank Dispatch Follow us on social media Mastodon Instagram Facebook YouTube Bluesky Twitter/X WhatsApp Telegram LinkedIn
Air Date: 7-21-24 Today, Jay!, Amanda, and Deon (Erin couldn't join us) discuss: - Deon's hatred of old people - How the media industry's failing state led to ineffective coverage of the Biden age story - Amanda's excellent sports analogy - The factors that have lead to America's worsening gerontocracy REFERENCES: Did the media botch the Biden age story? Jon Stewart Examines Biden's Future Amidst Calls For Him to Drop Out | The Daily Show Inside the Complicated Reality of Being America's Oldest President Biden, turning 80, faces renewed age questions as he weighs reelection Our U.S. Gerontocracy Needs to Go (and Biden Isn't Even the Worst) Why American politicians are so old Join our Discord Server Leave a message at 202-999-3991 Produced by: Jay! Tomlinson Thanks for listening! Visit us at BestOfTheLeft.com Follow at Twitter.com/BestOfTheLeft Like at Facebook.com/BestOfTheLeft Contact me directly at Jay@BestOfTheLeft.com Review the show on Apple Podcasts!
Jan Markell spends the hour with Michele Bachmann. We may be in the most prophetic hour of our lifetime. Our U.S. Administration is on team Iran and not team Israel. This has terrible consequences for America. It places both Israeland Americain the center of the storm today. To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/407/29
Japan and India are currently set to lead growth in these markets, but a higher-for-longer rate environment in the U.S. could favor China, Hong Kong and others, according to our analyst.----- Transcript -----Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia & Emerging Market Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss whether U.S. macro resilience is too much of a good thing when it comes to its impact on Asia's equity markets.It's Friday 19th of April at 10am in Singapore.Our U.S. economics team has substantially lifted its forecast for 2024 and 2025 GDP growth following strong migration boosted activity and employment trends. Recent inflation readings have been bumpy, but our team still sees it moderating over the summer as core services and housing prices cool off. While the market has been focused on this silver lining of stronger global growth, the clouds are rolling in from expectations of a shallower and later easing of global monetary policy.Our team now believes that the first Fed rate cut won't come until July but does see two additional cuts coming in November and December. We've made similar adjustments in our outlook for Asia-ex-China's monetary policy easing cycle, seeing it coming later and shallower. Meanwhile, in Japan, our economists now expect two further hikes from the Bank of Japan -- in July this year, and again in January next year -- taking policy rates up to 0.5 per cent.But how does all this leave the Asia and EM equity outlook? In a word, mixed.We see this driving more divergence within Asia and EM, depending on how exposed each market is to stronger global growth, a stronger U.S. dollar or impacted by higher interest rates. On the positive side, Taiwan, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea have the most direct North American revenue exposure. And for Japan, the strong US dollar is also positive through the translation of foreign revenues back at this historically weak yen. However, in the short run, we do need to be mindful of any price momentum reversal as April is normally seasonally weak, and we do see dollar-yen approaching 155. So, any FX (foreign exchange) intervention could sharpen a price momentum reversal.Next up, we're paying close attention to India's equity market, where we have a secularly bullish view. India has remained resilient to date, consistent with our thesis that macro stability has become a key driver of the bull market. And this is in sharp contrast to prior cycles. For example, during the Taper tantrum of 2013, where India saw a sudden and sharp bear market as Fed expectations shifted.On the negative side then, we are seeing a breakdown in correlations of some markets with these higher Fed funds expectations, including in Indonesia and Brazil where policy space is being constrained, and in Australia where valuations were pushed up on hopes of an RBA easing cycle that won't come until next year in our view.So, this is indeed a mixed picture for Asia and EM, but we retain our core views that market leadership will continue coming from Japan and India through 2024. And so, what's the risk from here? The larger risk to Asia and EM markets, we think, comes from an even more inflationary and hawkish scenario where the Fed is forced to recommence rate hikes, ultimately bearing the risk of driving a hard landing to bring inflation back to target.In this scenario, we could see a pivot in leadership away from markets with high US revenue exposure, such as Taiwan and Japan, towards more domestically oriented and resilient late cycle markets, such as an emerging ASEAN partner, and potentially China and Hong Kong -- if additional stimulus is forthcoming there.Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Jan Markell spends the hour with Michele Bachmann. We may be in the most prophetic hour of our lifetime. Our U.S. Administration is on team Iran and not team Israel. This has terrible consequences for America. It places both Israeland Americain the center of the storm today. To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.lightsource.com/donate/1472/29
Hear our perspective on market action following the Fed's change in direction, and what it means for our 2024 outlook. ----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. In this special episode I'm joined by my colleague and Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy, Serena Tang. Along with our colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, we'll be talking about how our views have evolved since we published our 2024 outlook over a month ago. It's Tuesday, December 19th, at 10 a.m. in New York. Vishy Tirupattur: Hello, Serena. Thank you for joining me in the show. Serena Tang: Very happy to join you. Vishy Tirupattur: Since we published our 2024 outlook, we've had some big moves across markets. So how do you think our views have changed from your perch as the Head of Cross-Asset Strategy? Serena Tang: Markets have moved a lot and have moved very, very quickly. When we first published our outlook just a month ago, you and I both had investors push back on our macro strategy team's forecast of U.S. ten year Treasury yields at below 4%. And you know what? We are at those levels now. In a similar vein, MSCI EM, which is the broad index of emerging market equities that we track, that is at our equity strategies price target. And we are now also through our base case target for U.S. high grade corporate bonds. So I would say this has shifted our short term views. Our U.S. rate strategy team, they've recently gone tactically neutral on government bonds as the markets have repriced quickly, maybe a bit too quickly. Now, that being said, on a strategic horizon, my team and I have been arguing for a strong preference for high quality fixed income over higher beta assets going into 2024. In large part because risky assets like equities, like high yield corporate bonds, they have been pricing in a perfect landing and not paying investors enough premium for the risk that the world may be less than perfect. And the assets which have valuation cushion right now, especially after rally we've seen these past few weeks, is still high grade fixed income. You know U.S. yields are close to post global financial crisis highs, while equity risk premiums have been falling most of this past year. So, yes, markets have moved, but our strategic view of being overweight in high quality fixed income over higher beta markets have not changed. So for you Vishy, you know, when we published our year ahead outlook, we had some pushback, not just on the rates view but also on a forecast for the Fed to cut four times next year. The market is clearly moved beyond that now. What do you think has driven that rally? Vishy Tirupattur: Serena, the pushback we had was really about the motivation and timing of the Fed cuts. As you know, our economists are calling for cuts starting in June as the economy and inflation begin to decelerate. Some people initially pushed back on this idea, that the Fed starts cutting rates before we get to the 2% core PCE target rate. After the downward surprise in CPI last week and more so after the FOMC meeting, which came across more dovish than the markets as well as us expected, the market narrative, including the pushback we've been getting, have dramatically changed. Clearly, the markets interpreted the messaging from the FOMC statement, the dot plot and the press conference to be unequivocally dovish. The changes in the market narratives notwithstanding, we continue to expect 100 basis point cuts over 2024. I would note that in a world where inflation is falling, standard economic models would prescribe rate cuts and in 2024 inflation is projected to fall further. And because the Fed targets the level of real leads to maintain the same level of restraint, the Fed needs to cut nominal rates in line with falling inflation. This is the reasoning we see behind Fed's projection for cutting cycle to begin next year. Cutting the policy rate is not to stimulate the economy, but really to move monetary policy towards a more normalized level. While the real rate will be likely lower at the end of next year than it is today, it will still remain elevated above neutral, nevertheless. Serena Tang: So do you think the markets are right to go with the Fed pivot narrative at this point in time? What are the market's pricing in right now for what the Fed will do in 2024? And compared to our U.S. economist forecasts, do you see the market pricing as too bullish or bearish? Vishy Tirupattur: The market pricing now reflects about 140 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, and market is assigning a nearly two thirds probability of a cut materializing in March. In our view, for a march cut to be realized, we need to continue to see downward surprises in incoming inflation and growth data. To quote Chair Powell on inflation, "I'm not calling into question the progress. It's great. We just need to see more" end quote. So we don't think the Fed would be confident that enough progress has been achieved by March. So that means cuts arrive in June, if there are no further downside surprises to our inflation path. So we think market has gotten a bit ahead of itself and thus will remain tactically neutral on duration? So Serena, if the pivot is real, why are you not more bullish on equities or fixed income? Also, why are you not bullish on higher beta fixed income? Serena Tang: Right. As I mentioned earlier, there's a strong valuation case for fixed income over equities. The latter is pretty much priced to perfection, while the former is not. But also in an environment where the Fed pivot is real and I think you and I both believe the Fed will start easing policy next year, the rally we've seen is not entirely surprising. My team's done some work looking into past episodes of rate hikes and cuts and pauses and what it means for cross-asset performance. Now, 3 to 6 months after the last Fed hike, normally everything rallies, which makes sense. Equities rates, credit, all these markets are just very relieved there is no more policy tightening. But in 3 to 6 months going into that first Fed cut, that's when you see bonds outperform equities, investment grade bonds outperform lower quality and quality within equities outperforming as investors recognize that easing usually comes along with decelerating growth. And I think that moment of epiphany is still to come. Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Serena. Thank you for joining me. Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Our U.S. Representatives, all the nutball dems and limp wristed Republicans, are an accurate representation of the nation because we have a people problem. Godzilla Minus One. What is Cultural Marxism. The Soviet communist couldn't get a foothold in in America the same way they did in the USSR; he had to go through cultural institutions. Renewing the FISA courts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Our U.S. Representatives, all the nutball dems and limp wristed Republicans, are an accurate representation of the nation because we have a people problem. Godzilla Minus One. What is Cultural Marxism. The Soviet communist couldn't get a foothold in America the same way he did in the USSR; he had to go through cultural institutions. Renewing the FISA courts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
BlazeTV host Alex Stein and Blaze Media digital strategist Logan Hall join the show to discuss Javier Milei, Argentina's newest president. Milei is a self-described "anarcho-capitalist" who defeated the country's current economy minister, Sergio Massa, leaving the world stunned. Milei vowed on the campaign trail to sever ties with his country's top trading partners, Brazil and China, stating that he would not "do business with communists." Milei is against abortion, has insulted Pope Francis, questioned the death toll under Argentina's brutal dictatorship, and asserts that humans are not causing climate change. Our U.S. president, Joe Biden, set a new record for the oldest sitting president. Biden turned 81 today. White House insiders are ramping up an operation dubbed "Bubble Wrap Biden," hoping to protect him from more falls and embarrassing moments. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson followed through on one of the promises he made if voted as speaker: he released a portion of the January 6 surveillance videos to the public through a government website. Johnson says over the next few months, he will release all 44,000 hours. Today's Sponsors: Birch Gold's Black Friday deal comes to an end this week! Right now, when you open a gold IRA, for every $10,000 you spend by December 22, Birch Gold will send you a FREE gold bar! But you have to text WHY to 989898 to claim eligibility before Black Friday! Birch Gold can even help you convert an existing IRA or 401k into an IRA in gold for NO MONEY out of pocket. AND YOU STILL GET THE FREE GOLD BARS! Just text WHY to 989898 today. If you want to try Beam's best-selling Dream Powder, take advantage of the biggest sale of the year and get up to 50% off for a limited time when you go to http://www.shopbeam.com/NEWS — the discount is auto-applied at checkout, no code necessary. Liver Health Formula contains 12 powerful botanicals that have been clinically proven to recharge and protect your liver at the cellular level. You can try Liver Health Formula completely risk-free and receive five FREE gifts when you order today. You'll receive a FREE bottle of Blood Sugar Formula to reduce sugar cravings. In total you're getting a 64% discount. Act today and go to https://www.GetLiverHelp.com/News. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated, investors are selling off bonds in anticipation of new issues with higher yields, triggering a historic rout in the world's biggest bond markets.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today, I'll discuss the ongoing U.S. Treasury bond market route. It's Tuesday, October 24th, at 10 a.m. in New York. The world's biggest bond markets are in the midst of a historic route, and an increasing number of experts are referring to this as the deepest bond bear market of all time. Simply put, it works like this. When the central bank policy rate increases, investors' expectations for yields on bonds go up. This prompts investors to sell the bonds they currently own in order to buy newly issued ones that promise higher yields. So in this higher for longer interest rate environment, investors have been selling bonds, resulting in serious declines in bond prices and simultaneous surges in bond yields. In the U.S. Treasury market, which is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, the yield on the 30 year U.S. government bond recently hit 5% for the first time since 2007. German and Japanese bond yields are also reaching significantly elevated levels. Why does the turmoil in the bond market matter so much for consumers? For one thing, the yields on local government bonds impacts how banks priced mortgages. In the U.S. Specifically, mortgage rates tend to track the yield on ten year treasuries. Government backed mortgage provider Freddie Mac recently announced that the average interest rate on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage hit 7.3% in the week ending September 28th. That's the highest level since 2000. The ripple effects from the bond market route stretch further than mortgages. For instance, higher U.S. yields also means an even stronger U.S. dollar, which puts downward pressure on other currencies. The equity markets also can't escape the impact of higher bond yields. Those higher yields compete for money that might otherwise get invested in the stock market. As yields surged in September, the S&P 500 fell about 4.5%, despite relatively positive economic data. Against this backdrop, consensus explanations for the bond market sell off have been focusing on technical drivers, like U.S. Treasury market supply and investor positioning adjustments, as well as fundamental drivers, like fiscal sustainability concerns, Bank of Japan policy changes and stronger than expected growth. What surprises us is that the Fed rarely enters the discussion, specifically its reactions to data and its subsequent forward guidance. But we do believe the Fed's involvement is one of the major drivers behind the current bond market rout. Without the Fed's more hawkish reaction to recent growth and inflation data, other technical and fundamental drivers would not have contributed as much to higher Treasury yields, in our view. As things stand, markets will need to continue to come to grips with interest rates staying high. The U.S. economy remains resilient, despite still elevated inflation. Our U.S. economist now thinks the Fed's December Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a live meeting. The September U.S. Consumer Price Index and payrolls data met our economists' bar for a potential additional hike later this year. And so these most recent data releases make the next round of monthly data even more important, as policymakers deliberate what to do in December. And these decisions by the Fed will continue to have a significant impact on the bond market. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.
How are we engaging in civil society and thinking about our worldview? Fr. Frank Pavone joins for a fascinating discussion with Jenna, defining ideology and why it must be deriving from faith and a biblical worldview. Our U.S. Constitution protects our rights, but how do we define what is a “right” when the left wants to codify abortion and homosexual marriage as “rights?” We have to have a solid response—not just based in party platform, but in reason and truth! PLUS: http://www.jennaellisstore.com/ is now open!! Get your FREE JENNA mugs and more. All proceeds will be donated to the Advocate Defense Fund, which will assist the lawyers indicted out of Georgia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
[This blog will always be free to read, but it's also how I pay my bills. So, if you like what you read, please consider a paid subscription. And yes, I do speaking engagements.]In a matter of hours, England's women's national football team—known affectionately as “The Lionesses”—will compete against Spain in the first World Cup Final that England has seen in nearly six decades. For those unaware, football (known to us Americans as “soccer”) is massively popular in England. In fact, it's where “association football” (as it's formally termed to differentiate from variants) was born and popularized. In fact, even “massively popular” feels like a bit of an understatement. Football is one of those things that is central to British identity, right up there with the Royal Family, the Beatles, subtle and self-deprecating comedy, colonialism, and unseasoned food. Unfortunately, since its victory against Germany in the 1966 World Cup Final, the English men's team has failed to recapture that glory. In the intervening six decades, the closest they've come were two semi-final flameouts. Something akin to a national crisis occurred when they failed to even qualify for the 1994 Men's World Cup.So, I want y'all to humor a hypothetical. Imagine if England's men's national football team had made it to the World Cup Final last year in Qatar. As Americans, the best comparison we have is probably the 1980 Winter Olympics, in which a young U.S. team upset the U.S.S.R. juggernaut on the way to the gold medal.I don't mean in terms of direct sport comparison but national fervor. Our U.S. Women's National Team has been enormously successful and deserves all the plaudits, but here, too, sexism is rampant. Our country didn't screech to a halt for the last World Cup Final we were in.So, take that comparison on steroids, and you'd have the likely response of England to its men's team being on the verge of greatness. The country would practically shut down for the event. British media would be in a frenzy of orgasmic patriotism. Maybe the Spice Girls would even finally announce a new world tour.And this is what's key: there is no doubt—not a single doubt—that King Charles III, Prince William, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would be attending the Men's World Cup Final in person. It is silly and childish to pretend otherwise. There is absolutely no way these three men miss that event.And yet, as of this writing—and it doesn't look as though things will change—neither King Charles nor Prince William nor Queen Camilla nor Princess Catherine nor any of the other British Royals nor Prime Minister Sunak will be attending the World Cup Final to cheer on The Lionesses.Literally all of the top British leadership are missing this historic event. But why? Is there a national crisis? Have they fallen ill? No. They're mostly “on vacation” and can't be bothered to attend. I'm not kidding.William & Kate and their young children are currently on holiday, though it's not especially clear why William can't get his happy ass on a plane ride to Sydney for a brief visit to celebrate this moment. Charles & Camilla didn't even bother to offer a reason, explaining through a press statement that they would be cheering on The Lionesses in front of a television at Buckingham Palace.PM Sunak has also failed to offer a reason, though it's almost understandable—almost but not quite—that a sitting prime minister may, in theory, have other factors to consider.Here's the kicker: Prince William has been the president of the Football Association—England's governing body for football—since 2006. He is the literal figurehead for English football, and though it may be mostly symbolic, that symbolism comes with a responsibility. As criticism of the Royals has ramped up, the Prince's press flacks have frantically and weakly attempted to float the absurd reasoning that William is missing the World Cup Final to reduce his carbon footprint. Yes, you read that right. Prince William is hiding behind climate change to avoid cheering on The Lionesses.Spain, on the other hand, didn't hesitate. Queen Letizia and her daughter Princess Sofia hopped on a plane and will be cheering on their women's team from a suite at Stadium Australia, along with 75,000 other spectators. It's quite embarrassing for the British Royals, and they should absolutely feel ashamed for the message this sends, not just to The Lionesses and their supporters but every woman and girl in the United Kingdom, who are being told, unequivocally, that women's sports are just not that important.William's advisors, sensing the growing public resentment could prove problematic, scrambled to have him film a 14 second video for the The Lionesses with Princess Charlotte, his 8 year-old daughter, sitting beside him. He said the following:“Lionesses, I want to send you a huge good luck for tomorrow, we're sorry we can't be there in person but we're so proud of everything you've achieved and the millions you've inspired here and around the world. So go out there tomorrow and really enjoy yourselves.”I do communications for a living, and sometimes, I have to explain to clients that the most important thing, bare minimum, is that your audience feels heard and you're making an effort. If nothing else, acknowledge the needs of your audience and that you care about those needs.Did anyone watch this video and really believe that William gives two s***s about The Lionesses? I don't. I think an exasperated advisor convinced him to sit down for a quick iPhone video and this is what we got. It's deeply underwhelming.I don't think I've ever seen a crisis comms response that is simultaneously aloof, cloying, weakly pandering, and vaguely annoyed. It's not only less than the bare minimum but so poorly attempted that it comes across as insulting. It feels as though William's teeth had to be pulled to make it.If you're gonna hinge your response on a video, why not make an effort? Talk about the importance of women's sports and what this World Cup Final must mean to girls across England. Talk about the growth of women's sports and why it makes England stronger.Get the entire family—William, Kate, George, Charlotte, and Louis—in the video, and have Kate talk about why their boys will be watching, too — why boys and young men have a responsibility to cheer on the girls and young women in their lives. I have to admit that even as an American, I feel angry over this. I feel angry for The Lionesses and women athletes in England generally and girls and women who know that if they bring up the clear disparity in support compared to male athletes, they'll be shouted down as “shrill feminists.”Enjoy your vacation, William. I know your job is so hard, after all. Charlotte's Web Thoughts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Hi, I'm Charlotte Clymer, and this is Charlotte's Web Thoughts, my Substack. It's completely free to access and read, but it's also how my bills! So, please do kindly consider upgrading to a paid subscription: just $7/month or save money with the $70/annual sub. You can also go way above and beyond by becoming a Lifetime Member at $250. Get full access to Charlotte's Web Thoughts at charlotteclymer.substack.com/subscribe
The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly bring you this podcast filled with deep industry discussions. We talk to today's top thought innovators, spanning topics across the entire supply chain. Supply Chain in the Fast Lane fast tracks topics you need to know from leaders you want to know.In this fourth season of eight episodes, we look at the new technologies that are impacting transportation.SEASON 4:Supply Chain in the Fast Lane: Transportation TechEPISODE 8: Embracing Port TechnologiesGuest: Stephen A. Edwards, chief executive officer and executive director for the Port of Virginia.Our U.S. ports are no strangers to disruptions and supply chain challenges. Our guest Stephen A. Edwards, chief executive officer and executive director for the Port of Virginia, discusses how emerging technologies have improved the Port of Virginia's operations and why it's so critical for ports to remain adaptable to withstand future disruptions. Moderator: Diane Rand, managing editor, CSCMP's Supply Chain QuarterlySupply Chain in the Fast Lane is sponsored by:HERE TechnologiesLinksLearn more about CSCMPJoin the CSCMP communityCSCMP's Supply Chain QuarterlySubscribe to CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly Sign up for our FREE newslettersListen to our sister podcast, Top 10 Supply Chain Threats Advertise with CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly
Original Release on June, 6th 2023: Consumers in the U.S. are largely returning to pre-COVID spending levels, but new behaviors related to travel, credit availability and inflation have emerged.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver from the Morgan Stanley U.S. Equity Strategy Team. Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe from the U.S. Economics Team. Michelle Weaver: On this special episode of the podcast, we're taking a look at the state of the U.S. consumer as we approach the midyear mark. It's Tuesday, June 6th at 10 a.m. in New York. Michelle Weaver: In order to talk about where the consumer is right now, let's take it back two and a half years. It's January 2021, and households are slowly emerging from their COVID hibernations, but we're still months away from the broad distribution of the vaccine. Consumers are allocating 5% more of their wallet share to goods than before COVID, driving record consumption of electronics, home furnishings, sporting goods and recreational vehicles. All the things you needed to make staying at home a little bit better. Our U.S. economists at Morgan Stanley made a high conviction call in early 2021 that vaccine distribution would flip the script and drive a surge in services spending and a payback in goods spending. Sara, to what extent has this reversion played out and where do you think the U.S. consumer is now? Sarah Wolfe: The reversion is definitely played out, but there's been some big surprises. Basically, the spending pie has just been greater overall than expected, and that's thanks to unprecedented fiscal stimulus, excess savings and significant supply shortages. So we've not only seen a shift away from goods and toward services, but a much larger spending pie overall. The result has been a 13% surge in goods inflation over nearly three years, an acceleration in services inflation, and a return to pre-COVID spending habits that's much greater in real spending terms than in nominal terms. So if we look in the details, where has the payback been the largest? We've seen the biggest payback in home furnishing, home equipment, jewelry, watches, recreational vehicles, but we've seen the most robust recovery in discretionary services like dining out, going to a hotel, public transportation and recreational services. Michelle Weaver: Sara, has the recent turmoil in the banking sector affected the U.S. consumer and do you think there's a credit crunch going on right now? Sarah Wolfe: Bank funding costs have risen meaningfully and are expected to rise further, leading to tighter lending standards, slower loan growth and wider loan spreads. But let me be clear, this is not a credit crunch, nor do we expect it to be. We think about the pass through from tighter lending standards to the consumer to ways directly and indirectly. The direct channel is tighter lending standards for loans on consumer products, including credit cards and autos, and indirectly through tighter lending standards for businesses, which has knock-on effects for job growth. We've already seen the direct channel of consumer spending in the past year, as interest rates on new consumer loan products hit 20 to 30-year highs, raising overall debt service costs and forcing consumers to reduce purchases of interest sensitive goods. Dwindling supply of credit as banks tighten lending standards is also dampening consumption. Michelle Weaver: Great. And given that credit is getting a little bit tougher to come by, can you tell us what's happening with savings and what's happening with the labor market and labor income? Sarah Wolfe: This is very timely. Just a few days ago, we got a very strong jobs report for May. I think that this really supports our call for a soft landing, and even though consumers are increasingly worried about the economic outlook, about financial prospects, it's clear that we still have momentum in the economy and that the Fed can achieve its 2% inflation target without driving the unemployment rate significantly higher. We are seeing under the details that consumer spending is slowing, there's a pullback in discretionary happening, there's a bit of trade down behavior. But with the labor market remaining robust, it's going to keep spending afloat and prevent this hard landing scenario. Michelle, let me turn it to you now, let's drill down into some specifics. What are the latest spending trends around spending plans you're seeing in your consumer survey? Michelle Weaver: Sure. So consumers expect to pull back on spending for most categories that we asked them about over the next six months. And the only categories where they expect to spend more are necessities like groceries and household products. We also added two new questions to this round of the survey to figure out which discretionary categories are most at risk of a pullback in spending. We asked consumers to order categories based on spending priority and identify categories where they would pull back on spending if forced to reduce household expenses. We found that travel and live entertainment were most at risk of a pull back, and this isn't just a case of income groups having different attitudes towards spending, we saw similar prioritization across income cohorts. Sarah Wolfe: So you mentioned travel, travel's been in a boom state in the post-COVID world. But you're saying now that households are reporting that they would pull back if they needed to. Are we seeing that already? What do we expect for summer travel? What do we expect for the remainder of the year? Michelle Weaver: So the data I was just referencing was if you had to reduce your household expenses, how would you do it? And travel was identified there. So that's not a plan that's currently in place. But summer travel may be a bit softer this year versus last year. In our survey, we asked consumers if they're planning to travel more, the same amount or less than last summer, and we found that a greater proportion of consumers are planning to travel less this year. Budgets are also smaller for summer travel this year, with more than a third of consumers expecting to spend less. We're seeing a mixed picture from the company side. Airlines are seeing very strong results still, and Memorial Day weekend proved to be very strong.. But the data around hotels has started to weaken and the revenue per available room that hotels have been able to generate has been pretty choppy and forward bookings that hotels are seeing have actually been flat to down for the summer. Demand for resorts and economy hotels has fallen but demand for urban market hotels still remained very strong. Sarah, how does this deceleration, both services and goods growth play into your team's long standing argument for a soft landing for the economy? Sarah Wolfe: It's really the key to inflation coming down and avoiding a hard landing. With less pent up demand left for services spending and a strong labor market recovery, supply demand imbalances in the services sector are slowly resolving themselves. We estimate that there's a point three percentage point pass through from services wages to core core services inflation throughout any given year. Core core services, is services excluding housing inflation. So with compensation for services providing industries already decelerating for the past five quarters, we do expect the largest impact of core services inflation to occur in the back half of this year. So that's going to see a more meaningful step down in inflationary pressures later this year. This combined with a rising savings rate, so a shrinking spending pie, means that there's just going to be less demand for goods and services together this year. Altogether, it will enable the Fed to make progress towards its 2% inflation target without driving the economy into a recession. Michelle Weaver: Sarah, thank you for taking the time to talk. Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Michelle. Michelle Weaver: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Consumers in the U.S. are largely returning to pre-COVID spending levels, but new behaviors related to travel, credit availability and inflation have emerged.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver from the Morgan Stanley U.S. Equity Strategy Team. Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe from the U.S. Economics Team. Michelle Weaver: On this special episode of the podcast, we're taking a look at the state of the U.S. consumer as we approach the midyear mark. It's Tuesday, June 6th at 10 a.m. in New York. Michelle Weaver: In order to talk about where the consumer is right now, let's take it back two and a half years. It's January 2021, and households are slowly emerging from their COVID hibernations, but we're still months away from the broad distribution of the vaccine. Consumers are allocating 5% more of their wallet share to goods than before COVID, driving record consumption of electronics, home furnishings, sporting goods and recreational vehicles. All the things you needed to make staying at home a little bit better. Our U.S. economists at Morgan Stanley made a high conviction call in early 2021 that vaccine distribution would flip the script and drive a surge in services spending and a payback in goods spending. Sara, to what extent has this reversion played out and where do you think the U.S. consumer is now? Sarah Wolfe: The reversion is definitely played out, but there's been some big surprises. Basically, the spending pie has just been greater overall than expected, and that's thanks to unprecedented fiscal stimulus, excess savings and significant supply shortages. So we've not only seen a shift away from goods and toward services, but a much larger spending pie overall. The result has been a 13% surge in goods inflation over nearly three years, an acceleration in services inflation, and a return to pre-COVID spending habits that's much greater in real spending terms than in nominal terms. So if we look in the details, where has the payback been the largest? We've seen the biggest payback in home furnishing, home equipment, jewelry, watches, recreational vehicles, but we've seen the most robust recovery in discretionary services like dining out, going to a hotel, public transportation and recreational services. Michelle Weaver: Sara, has the recent turmoil in the banking sector affected the U.S. consumer and do you think there's a credit crunch going on right now? Sarah Wolfe: Bank funding costs have risen meaningfully and are expected to rise further, leading to tighter lending standards, slower loan growth and wider loan spreads. But let me be clear, this is not a credit crunch, nor do we expect it to be. We think about the pass through from tighter lending standards to the consumer to ways directly and indirectly. The direct channel is tighter lending standards for loans on consumer products, including credit cards and autos, and indirectly through tighter lending standards for businesses, which has knock-on effects for job growth. We've already seen the direct channel of consumer spending in the past year, as interest rates on new consumer loan products hit 20 to 30-year highs, raising overall debt service costs and forcing consumers to reduce purchases of interest sensitive goods. Dwindling supply of credit as banks tighten lending standards is also dampening consumption. Michelle Weaver: Great. And given that credit is getting a little bit tougher to come by, can you tell us what's happening with savings and what's happening with the labor market and labor income? Sarah Wolfe: This is very timely. Just a few days ago, we got a very strong jobs report for May. I think that this really supports our call for a soft landing, and even though consumers are increasingly worried about the economic outlook, about financial prospects, it's clear that we still have momentum in the economy and that the Fed can achieve its 2% inflation target without driving the unemployment rate significantly higher. We are seeing under the details that consumer spending is slowing, there's a pullback in discretionary happening, there's a bit of trade down behavior. But with the labor market remaining robust, it's going to keep spending afloat and prevent this hard landing scenario. Michelle, let me turn it to you now, let's drill down into some specifics. What are the latest spending trends around spending plans you're seeing in your consumer survey? Michelle Weaver: Sure. So consumers expect to pull back on spending for most categories that we asked them about over the next six months. And the only categories where they expect to spend more are necessities like groceries and household products. We also added two new questions to this round of the survey to figure out which discretionary categories are most at risk of a pullback in spending. We asked consumers to order categories based on spending priority and identify categories where they would pull back on spending if forced to reduce household expenses. We found that travel and live entertainment were most at risk of a pull back, and this isn't just a case of income groups having different attitudes towards spending, we saw similar prioritization across income cohorts. Sarah Wolfe: So you mentioned travel, travel's been in a boom state in the post-COVID world. But you're saying now that households are reporting that they would pull back if they needed to. Are we seeing that already? What do we expect for summer travel? What do we expect for the remainder of the year? Michelle Weaver: So the data I was just referencing was if you had to reduce your household expenses, how would you do it? And travel was identified there. So that's not a plan that's currently in place. But summer travel may be a bit softer this year versus last year. In our survey, we asked consumers if they're planning to travel more, the same amount or less than last summer, and we found that a greater proportion of consumers are planning to travel less this year. Budgets are also smaller for summer travel this year, with more than a third of consumers expecting to spend less. We're seeing a mixed picture from the company side. Airlines are seeing very strong results still, and Memorial Day weekend proved to be very strong.. But the data around hotels has started to weaken and the revenue per available room that hotels have been able to generate has been pretty choppy and forward bookings that hotels are seeing have actually been flat to down for the summer. Demand for resorts and economy hotels has fallen but demand for urban market hotels still remained very strong. Sarah, how does this deceleration, both services and goods growth play into your team's long standing argument for a soft landing for the economy? Sarah Wolfe: It's really the key to inflation coming down and avoiding a hard landing. With less pent up demand left for services spending and a strong labor market recovery, supply demand imbalances in the services sector are slowly resolving themselves. We estimate that there's a point three percentage point pass through from services wages to core core services inflation throughout any given year. Core core services, is services excluding housing inflation. So with compensation for services providing industries already decelerating for the past five quarters, we do expect the largest impact of core services inflation to occur in the back half of this year. So that's going to see a more meaningful step down in inflationary pressures later this year. This combined with a rising savings rate, so a shrinking spending pie, means that there's just going to be less demand for goods and services together this year. Altogether, it will enable the Fed to make progress towards its 2% inflation target without driving the economy into a recession. Michelle Weaver: Sarah, thank you for taking the time to talk. Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Michelle. Michelle Weaver: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
What's next for interest rates? Our U.S. Fed interpreter analyses the latest minutes - and if there's a difference between a hold, skip or pause. In Turkey, more rates decisions as President Erdogan could be on the verge of reelection – and a rehaul of his economic policy. Plus, how an in-flight request for a blanket sparked controversy in Hong Kong and what's behind the Chinese hacking of Kenya's government. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising.
Last month the U.S. held its midterm elections. A "red wave" never materialized as many predicted, but Republicans did take control of the House. Our U.S. correspondent Michael Arria caught up with author and Georgetown University adjunct professor Josh Ruebner to talk about how Israel factored into the races and what we should expect from the new congress on Palestine. Ruebner is the author of Israel: Democracy or Apartheid State? and Shattered Hopes: Obama's Failure to Broker Israeli-Palestinian Peace. He is an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. - - - - - Support our work Help us continue our critical independent coverage of events in Palestine, Israel, and related U.S. politics. Donate today at https://mondoweiss.net/donate Articles and Links mentioned in the show Josh Ruebner's website Follow Josh on Twitter There are plenty of opportunities for Palestine advocacy following the U.S. midterm elections, Mitchell Plitnick Subscribe to our free email newsletters. Share this podcast Share The Mondoweiss Podcast with your followers on Twitter. Click here to post a tweet! If you enjoyed this episode, head to Podchaser, leave us a review, and follow the show! Follow The Mondoweiss Podcast wherever you listen Amazon Apple Podcasts Audible Deezer Gaana Google Podcasts Overcast Player.fm RadioPublic Spotify Stitcher TuneIn YouTube Our RSS feed We want your feedback! Email us Leave us an audio message at SparkPipe More from Mondoweiss Subscribe to our free email newsletters: Daily Headlines Weekly Briefing The Shift tracks U.S. politics Follow us on social media Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Tumblr
Mondoweiss has been covering the “No Tech for Apartheid” movement for over a year now. In October 2021 hundreds of workers at Google and Amazon published an open letter in The Guardian condemning Project Nimbus, a billion dollar contract between the two tech companies and the Israeli government. The deal helps provide cloud services to the Israeli Defense Forces. The letter reads: “We cannot look the other way, as the products we build are used to deny Palestinians their basic rights, force Palestinians out of their homes and attack Palestinians in the Gaza Strip – actions that have prompted war crime investigations by the international criminal court.” A lot has happened since that letter ran, as the No Tech for Apartheid movement has continued to grow. Our U.S. correspondent Michael Arria checked in with two organizers to talk about its current state and what might come next. Ariel Koren is an activist and was formerly a product marketing manager at Google for Education. Earlier this year Koren was forced out of her job after facing retaliation from the company over her activism. Bathool Syed is an activist and content strategist at Amazon. We'll also hear some testimonials from Google and Amazon workers from a video the campaign published a few months ago. - - - - - Support our work Help us continue our critical independent coverage of events in Palestine, Israel, and related U.S. politics. Donate today at https://mondoweiss.net/donate Articles and Links mentioned in the show No Tech for Apartheid campaign website Organized labor vs. Project Nimbus, Mondoweiss Podcast Google worker says company tried to relocate her to Brazil after she criticized contract with Israel, Michael Arria Google worker who protested Israel contract says she was forced to quit, Michael Arria How Google advances the Zionist colonization of Palestine, Yarden Katz Google and Amazon workers want companies to end contracts with Israeli military, Michael Arria Subscribe to our free email newsletters. Share this podcast Share The Mondoweiss Podcast with your followers on Twitter. Click here to post a tweet! If you enjoyed this episode, head over to Podchaser and leave us a review and follow the show! Follow The Mondoweiss Podcast wherever you listen Amazon Apple Podcasts Audible Deezer Gaana Google Podcasts Overcast Player.fm RadioPublic Spotify Stitcher TuneIn YouTube Our RSS feed We want your feedback! Email us Leave us an audio message at SparkPipe More from Mondoweiss Subscribe to our free email newsletters: Daily Headlines Weekly Briefing The Shift tracks U.S. politics Palestine Letter West Bank Dispatch Follow us on social media Facebook Mastodon Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Tumblr
The U.K.'s economy continues to face a host of challenges, including high inflation and a weak currency, and while these problems are not insurmountable, they may weigh significantly on the economic outlook.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, October 21st at 2 p.m. in London. The eyes of the financial world remain on the United Kingdom, the world's 6th largest economy that is facing a complicated, interwoven set of challenges. We talked about the U.K. several weeks ago on this program, but I wanted to revisit it. It's a fascinating cross-asset story. First, among these challenges is inflation. High U.K. Inflation is partly due to global factors like commodity prices, but even excluding food and energy core inflation is about 6.5%. And since the U.K. runs a large current account deficit, importing much more than it exports, a weak currency is driving even higher costs through all those imported items. Meanwhile, Brexit continues to reduce the supply of labor and increase the costs of trade, further boosting inflation and reducing the benefit that a weaker currency would otherwise bring. The circularity here is unmissable; high inflation is driving currency weakness and vice versa. High inflation has depressed U.K. real interest rates, making the currency less attractive to hold. And high inflation relative to other countries undermines valuations. On an inflation adjusted basis, also known as purchasing power parity, the British pound hasn't fallen that much more than, say, the Swiss franc over the last year. If inflation is high, why doesn't the Bank of England simply raise rates to slow its pace? The bank is moving, but the Bank of England has raised rates by less than the market expected in 6 of the last 8 meetings. The Bank of England's hesitation is understandable, most UK mortgage debt is only fixed for 2 to 5 years, which means that roughly $100,000 loans are resetting every month. The impact is that higher rates can flow through into the economy unusually fast, much faster than, say, in the United States. Another way to slow inflation will be through tighter fiscal policy. But here we've seen some rather volatile recent political headlines. The U.K. government initially proposed a plan to loosen fiscal policy, but following a volatile market reaction has now changed course and reversed a number of those proposals. It still remains to be seen exactly what policy the U.K. government will settle on and what response the markets will have. The UK's problems are not insurmountable, but for now they remain significant. Our U.K. interest rate strategists think that expectations for 5 year inflation can move higher, along with yields. While our foreign exchange strategists are forecasting a lower British pound against the dollar. The one bright spot for the U.K. might be its credit market. Yielding over 7%, U.K. investment grade credit actually represents issuers from all over the world, including the United States. While less liquid than some other markets, we think it looks increasingly attractive as a combination of stability and yield amidst an uncertain environment. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.
As month over month data begins to show a downturn in home prices, will overall price growth and sales begin to fall steeper than expected? Co-Heads of U.S. Securitized Products Research Jim Egan and Jay Bacow discuss.----- Transcript -----Jim Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Co-head of U.S. Securitized Products Research here at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other Co-head of U.S. Securitized Products Research. Jim Egan: And on this episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing why home prices could turn negative in 2023. It's Thursday, October 6th, at 3 p.m. in New York. Jay Bacow: Jim, it seems like every month the housing data is getting worse when we look at the sales activity. But, now I think I just saw something about home prices falling? What's going on there? I thought we call it home price appreciation, now we're seeing home price depreciation? Jim Egan: There is a lot going on out there. There's a lot of volatility, things are moving fast, and yes, there are home price indices that are showing negative numbers. I would caveat that a lot of those negative numbers are month over month, not the year over year that we've typically talked about here. But that doesn't mean it isn't important. Jay Bacow: In the past we've talked about this bifurcation narrative where we were going to get a big drop in home sales and housing starts, which we've seen, but home prices were more protected. Do you still believe that? Jim Egan: We do still believe in the bifurcation narrative, but the levels of the forecasts have changed, and they've changed for a couple of reasons. I think one reason is that there have been a number of forecast changes, expectations for 2023 are different. Our U.S. economics team has raised their hiking forecast 25 basis points in each of the next three meetings, and our interest rate team on the back of that forecast change has moved up their expectations for the 10 year Treasury. What that move means for us is that the incredible affordability deterioration that we've seen, probably isn't going to get a whole lot better next year. And that's happening in a world in which you mentioned some home prices turning negative. The home price deceleration that we were calling for, from plus 20% all the way down to plus 3% at the end of next year, that relied upon or I can say we expected home prices to fall month over month, but we thought that was going to start in September. It started in July. Sales volumes have been coming in weaker than we thought they would. When we take that weaker than expected housing data, we marry that with different expectations for affordability next year, the forecasts have to change. Jay Bacow: And so what exactly are we forecasting for this year and next year? Jim Egan: So in this world, we do think that sales are going to fall steeper than we thought. We think that starts are going to fall steeper than we thought, and that next year a single unit starts are going to be lower in 2023 than they were in 2022. We had originally been forecasting a return to growth in 2023, but the change to the forecast that's getting the most attention is that we went from plus 3% year over year growth in December of 2023 to -3% year over year growth by the end of next year. Jay Bacow: So if I buy a house today, it might be lower a year from now? That seems worrisome. Jim Egan: Yes. And I think there is a positive and a negative headline to that, right. The negative headline, the worrisome, if you will, that you mentioned is that not only is it down 3% next year, but that's down 7% from where we are right now. The positive headline is that even with that decrease in home prices from today, that only brings us back to January of 2022. That's 32% above where they were in March of 2020. Jay Bacow: All right, that doesn't seem so bad, given that stocks are a lot lower than where they were in January of 2022. So it's more stalling out than a real correction in home prices. But, why wouldn't home prices fall further from there? Jim Egan: We haven't seen anything in the data that changes kind of the underlying narrative that we've been discussing on this podcast in the past. In particular, two things. The first is how robust credit standards have been. If anything, lending standards, which were pretty tight to begin with in the first quarter of 2020, have tightened substantially since then. What that means, again, it constrains sales volumes. We think sales are going to fall more than home prices, but it also means that the likelihood of defaults and foreclosures is limited. And it is those distressed transactions, those forced sellers that we would need to see a leg down in prices. The other point is, away from defaults and foreclosures, actual inventory is still incredibly low. And because current homeowners sit on 30 year fixed rate mortgages, well below the current mortgage rate, when we talk about affordability deteriorating, we're not talking about it deteriorating for current homeowners. They're much more likely to stay in their home, much less likely to list their home for sale, they're not going to be selling into depressed bids. So that credit availability and those tight lending standards, we think that keeps home prices supported. Jay Bacow: So home prices are protected because we're not going to get the forced sellers that we saw during the financial crisis and the fundamentals of the housing market are in much stronger footing. What would actually get you, though, to forecast more of a real correction than just the stalling out? Jim Egan: I'm going to make this really complicated and say the supply and demand. If demand were to be weaker than we already think it is, and that could happen because the historic deterioration we've seen in affordability has a bigger impact than we think it will. Maybe because the unemployment rate picks up faster than we're expecting it to next year. If you have a much weaker demand environment than we're already envisioning, and you combine that with more supply, perhaps people who'd be a little bit more willing to part with their home at slightly lower prices than we expect them to, people who've owned their home for 10, 15, 20 years and might be looking to downsize. That's where you might have a little bit more of a marriage between uneconomic sellers and depressed demand that could bring home prices lower than we expect. Now, how does all of that, if we think about the implications to investors, what does all that mean for the MBS market? Jay Bacow: I'm going to make this really complicated, too. A lot of it comes down to supply and demand. The lack of housing activity and the lower home prices means that there's going to be less supply for mortgage investors to buy. That's good for the mortgage market. The rapid increase in unaffordability has been because of the rapid increase in implied volatility, which is bad for mortgage investors. This has brought nominal spread to the Treasury curve for agency mortgages to levels that are basically at the post GFC wides. And we think that move is a little bit overdone. And so for institutional investors we think this is an opportunity to own agency mortgages versus treasuries as a way to fade some of these moves, and take advantage of some of the more forward looking supply projections that we think will be coming as supply slows down. Jay Bacow: But Jim, it's always great talking to you. Jim Egan: Great talking to you too, Jay. Jay Bacow: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on the Apple Podcast app and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Recap of the Lead Pedal Tailgate Stop Chrome Supply Warehouse Chrome Supply Warehouse was the fourth stop on our Lead Pedal Tailgate Tour. Where can you go and hang out in a parking lot and have fun like this? Only with truckers. We recap the stop for you and share interviews, giveaways, and more. Enjoy the show.Learn more about Chrome Supply Warehouse at www.chromesupplywarehouse.com This episode is sponsored by Drive Weather. Trip planning is critical to a successful road trip especially for professional drivers and the Drive Weather App should be in every tool kit. Drive Weather is an app that tracks the weather specific to the route you choose allowing for you to know exactly the type of weather you will run into on the trip. It can be customized and has many other features that make it a must have app for people on the road. Download the app in your app store or visit www.driveweatherapp.com This episode is sponsored by Bison Transport with many opportunities for truck drivers in their fleet across Canada. Bison recognizes the increasing demands that face today's professional cross-border Driver and Bison is making a major investment to reflect this! Bison is pleased to announce an industry leading pay package for our cross-border Drivers and Owner Operators. Our U.S. Premiums have increased by $0.10/mile for Long Haul Cross-Border Drivers and Owner Operators. You can learn more about Bison and the opportunities available at www.bisondriving.com or call 1-800-527-5781 @BisonTransport #bisontransport This episode is also sponsored by The Trucking Network which holds mega job fairs across the Country. You can learn about all the upcoming events at www.thetruckingnetworkevents.ca About the Show LISTEN TO THE PODCAST- The show is available at www.theleadpedalpodcast.com , ITunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Tunein, iHeartradio, SoundCloud, and other popular podcast platforms. Thanks for listening JOIN THE LEAD PEDAL PODCAST FAN CLUB www.TheLeadPedalPodcastFanClub.com LISTEN TO LEAD PEDAL RADIO at www.LeadPedalRadio.com The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers talks all things trucking for people in the transportation industry helping them improve their business and careers. Interviews with industry professionals and truck drivers, trucking information, and other features on the industry are meant to be helpful for truck drivers and those in transportation. The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers has main episodes released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with bonus material on other days. You can learn more about the host and show on our website and make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com What does The Lead Pedal Podcast mean? The Lead (pronounced - Led) stands for acceleration or fast-track of your career or business. It is a play on words and we certainly are not here promoting speeding in the industry. We are hoping this information will help you become a professional driver faster than if you didn't know about many of these topics. Are you enjoying the show? If so we would appreciate you leaving us a rating and review on iTunes or on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com Join The Lead Pedal Podcast Fan Club where are loyal fans get first chance at specials, discounts on merchandise and much more.The club is free to join and you can learn more at www.theleadpedalpodcastfanclub.com
Fuelling the Bison Fleet with Robin Zhu Managing the fuel of a fleet the size of Bison Transport must be a daunting task into today's world. Today we talk with Robin Zhu about how he does just that and also what tips can he offer owner operators in general to save on fuel costs. This episode is sponsored by Bison Transport with many opportunities for truck drivers in their fleet across Canada. Bison recognizes the increasing demands that face today's professional cross-border Driver and Bison is making a major investment to reflect this! Bison is pleased to announce an industry leading pay package for our cross-border Drivers and Owner Operators. Our U.S. Premiums have increased by $0.10/mile for Long Haul Cross-Border Drivers and Owner Operators. You can learn more about Bison and the opportunities available at www.bisondriving.com or call 1-800-527-5781 @BisonTransport #bisontransport About the Show LISTEN TO THE PODCAST- The show is available at www.theleadpedalpodcast.com , ITunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Tunein, iHeartradio, SoundCloud, and other popular podcast platforms. Thanks for listening JOIN THE LEAD PEDAL PODCAST FAN CLUB www.TheLeadPedalPodcastFanClub.com LISTEN TO LEAD PEDAL RADIO at www.LeadPedalRadio.com The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers talks all things trucking for people in the transportation industry helping them improve their business and careers. Interviews with industry professionals and truck drivers, trucking information, and other features on the industry are meant to be helpful for truck drivers and those in transportation. The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers has main episodes released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with bonus material on other days. You can learn more about the host and show on our website and make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com What does The Lead Pedal Podcast mean? The Lead (pronounced - Led) stands for acceleration or fast-track of your career or business. It is a play on words and we certainly are not here promoting speeding in the industry. We are hoping this information will help you become a professional driver faster than if you didn't know about many of these topics. Are you enjoying the show? If so we would appreciate you leaving us a rating and review on iTunes or on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com Join The Lead Pedal Podcast Fan Club where are loyal fans get first chance at specials, discounts on merchandise and much more.The club is free to join and you can learn more at www.theleadpedalpodcastfanclub.com
Instructor of the Year-Doug Graves The TTSAO recently awarded their third Instructor of the Year Award to veteran instructor Doug Graves of Zavcor Training Academy. Each year the association chooses an instructor that reaches a certain set of criteria and is nominated by the carrier they work for and Doug Graves met that criteria. We talk with Doug about his award and the dedication behind his training. You can learn more about the TTSAO Award at www.ttsao.com Trip planning is critical to a successful road trip especially for professional drivers and the Drive Weather App should be in every tool kit. Drive Weather is an app that tracks the weather specific to the route you choose allowing for you to know exactly the type of weather you will run into on the trip. It can be customized and has many other features that make it a must have app for people on the road. Download the app in your app store or visit www.driveweatherapp.com This episode is sponsored by Bison Transport with many opportunities for truck drivers in their fleet across Canada. Bison recognizes the increasing demands that face today's professional cross-border Driver and Bison is making a major investment to reflect this! Bison is pleased to announce an industry leading pay package for our cross-border Drivers and Owner Operators. Our U.S. Premiums have increased by $0.10/mile for Long Haul Cross-Border Drivers and Owner Operators. You can learn more about Bison and the opportunities available at www.bisondriving.com or call 1-800-527-5781 @BisonTransport #bisontransport DriverVerified is an online platform that allows you to keep a profile that can be found by potential employers, sent directly to insurance professionals, or updated with documents that help you stand out from other applicants. You can learn more about DriverVerified at www.driververified.com Set up your free profile today. About the Show LISTEN TO THE PODCAST- The show is available at www.theleadpedalpodcast.com , ITunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Tunein, iHeartradio, SoundCloud, and other popular podcast platforms. Thanks for listening JOIN THE LEAD PEDAL PODCAST FAN CLUB www.TheLeadPedalPodcastFanClub.com LISTEN TO LEAD PEDAL RADIO at www.LeadPedalRadio.com The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers talks all things trucking for people in the transportation industry helping them improve their business and careers. Interviews with industry professionals and truck drivers, trucking information, and other features on the industry are meant to be helpful for truck drivers and those in transportation. The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers has main episodes released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with bonus material on other days. You can learn more about the host and show on our website and make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com What does The Lead Pedal Podcast mean? The Lead (pronounced - Led) stands for acceleration or fast-track of your career or business. It is a play on words and we certainly are not here promoting speeding in the industry. We are hoping this information will help you become a professional driver faster than if you didn't know about many of these topics. Are you enjoying the show? If so we would appreciate you leaving us a rating and review on iTunes or on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com Join The Lead Pedal Podcast Fan Club where are loyal fans get first chance at specials, discounts on merchandise and much more.The club is free to join and you can learn more at www.theleadpedalpodcastfanclub.com
In this episode of Work in Progress, Dr. Mardy Leathers, director of the Missouri Department of Higher Education and Workforce Development discusses an innovative new career training program available to all the state's high school juniors and seniors. More on the new Launch Missouri's Workforce initiative a little later, but first an update on how the state's workforce has bounced back from the job loss caused by the COVID pandemic. I first met Dr. Leathers in July of 2020 when I interviewed him about the state's plans to help the hundreds of thousands of people who lost their jobs at the start of the pandemic rejoin the workforce. We discussed the free training programs being offered to all Missourians who were jobless and collecting benefits. Through its Return Strong Missouri program, the state partnered with online learning platform Coursera to give unemployed Missourians free access to 3,800 courses to help them “develop the knowledge and skills to become re-employed." By all accounts, the program was a success. "We've restaffed about 94% of all the jobs that we lost during the pandemic. We are at 40-year lows for unemployment. Our U-3 is at 2.8%, that equates about 82,000 Missourians who are currently receiving an unemployment benefit. That's from a peak of nearly 800,000 Missourians in the onslaught of the pandemic," Leathers tells me. The program was such a success, explains Leathers, the state has extended its offer of free Coursera classes to all Missourians. "Any Missourian who's over the age of 18 and eligible for work in the United States has access to a 12-month license for Coursera, including for incumbent workers who are working, but want to skill up. For instance, in Missouri, 94% of all of our job postings – of which there's about 218,000 – Microsoft Excel is in the job description. So, if you haven't taken an Excel class in a while, or you want to beef up, guess what, Coursera can help you do that. Maybe you'll need to learn how to manage a remote team. Guess what, Coursera can help you do that," he tells me. This is part of the state's overall plan to get Missourians on a path to a good career, no matter their age. According to Leathers, "What we've tried to do is democratize access to skill development by a number of ways, whether it's through our certifications through our partnership with our community colleges, our apprenticeship expansion." "Certainly, Launch Missouri's Workforce is a big part of that. We see it as a way to continue to increase the different options available for Missouri citizens who want to skill up and grow in their careers." Launch Missouri's Workforce: Virtual and Hands-on Career Training for High Schoolers Launch Missouri's Workforce combines virtual career learning with in-person labs, arming high school students with the skills training they need to get industry-recognized credentials for today's in-demand jobs. Leathers explains that virtual program doesn't supplant hands-on learning, but instead allows anything that can be taught virtually to be taught first, then in-person labs and workshops will supplement that training. Launch Missouri's Workforce is offering career pathways in eleven industries vital to the state's economy. "Missouri's a pretty diverse state. We're a midwestern state. We're right in the middle of the country, so transportation logistics is a big deal. Aerospace. We're a big defense contractor. Most of the Boeing defense planes are created right here in St. Louis. But we also look at health care. We look at technology jobs, both on the IT side, but also across all sectors – whether it's cybersecurity or networking or a managed services help desk. Those cross all sectors," he tells me. "What we want to be able to do is say these are the industry sectors that are prevalent in Missouri. If you are going to live and work in Missouri, we want to make sure you have the tools and opportunity to be successful.
In this episode of Work in Progress, Dr. Mardy Leathers, director of the Missouri Department of Higher Education and Workforce Development discusses an innovative new career training program available to all the state's high school juniors and seniors. More on the new Launch Missouri's Workforce initiative a little later, but first an update on how the state's workforce has bounced back from the job loss caused by the COVID pandemic. I first met Dr. Leathers in July of 2020 when I interviewed him about the state's plans to help the hundreds of thousands of people who lost their jobs at the start of the pandemic rejoin the workforce. We discussed the free training programs being offered to all Missourians who were jobless and collecting benefits. Through its Return Strong Missouri program, the state partnered with online learning platform Coursera to give unemployed Missourians free access to 3,800 courses to help them “develop the knowledge and skills to become re-employed." By all accounts, the program was a success. "We've restaffed about 94% of all the jobs that we lost during the pandemic. We are at 40-year lows for unemployment. Our U-3 is at 2.8%, that equates about 82,000 Missourians who are currently receiving an unemployment benefit. That's from a peak of nearly 800,000 Missourians in the onslaught of the pandemic," Leathers tells me. The program was such a success, explains Leathers, the state has extended its offer of free Coursera classes to all Missourians. "Any Missourian who's over the age of 18 and eligible for work in the United States has access to a 12-month license for Coursera, including for incumbent workers who are working, but want to skill up. For instance, in Missouri, 94% of all of our job postings – of which there's about 218,000 – Microsoft Excel is in the job description. So, if you haven't taken an Excel class in a while, or you want to beef up, guess what, Coursera can help you do that. Maybe you'll need to learn how to manage a remote team. Guess what, Coursera can help you do that," he tells me. This is part of the state's overall plan to get Missourians on a path to a good career, no matter their age. According to Leathers, "What we've tried to do is democratize access to skill development by a number of ways, whether it's through our certifications through our partnership with our community colleges, our apprenticeship expansion." "Certainly, Launch Missouri's Workforce is a big part of that. We see it as a way to continue to increase the different options available for Missouri citizens who want to skill up and grow in their careers." Launch Missouri's Workforce: Virtual and Hands-on Career Training for High Schoolers Launch Missouri's Workforce combines virtual career learning with in-person labs, arming high school students with the skills training they need to get industry-recognized credentials for today's in-demand jobs. Leathers explains that virtual program doesn't supplant hands-on learning, but instead allows anything that can be taught virtually to be taught first, then in-person labs and workshops will supplement that training. Launch Missouri's Workforce is offering career pathways in eleven industries vital to the state's economy. "Missouri's a pretty diverse state. We're a midwestern state. We're right in the middle of the country, so transportation logistics is a big deal. Aerospace. We're a big defense contractor. Most of the Boeing defense planes are created right here in St. Louis. But we also look at health care. We look at technology jobs, both on the IT side, but also across all sectors – whether it's cybersecurity or networking or a managed services help desk. Those cross all sectors," he tells me. "What we want to be able to do is say these are the industry sectors that are prevalent in Missouri. If you are going to live and work in Missouri, we want to make sure you have the tools and opportunity to be successful.
Recap of the TTSAO 6th Annual Conference The Truck Training Schools Association of Ontario (TTSAO) had their 6th Annual Conference recently and Lead Pedal Media was onsite to recap the event. Learn what happened and why this was a treat event to attend. You can learn more about the TTSAO and pictures from the event at www.ttsao.com Trip planning is critical to a successful road trip especially for professional drivers and the Drive Weather App should be in every tool kit. Drive Weather is an app that tracks the weather specific to the route you choose allowing for you to know exactly the type of weather you will run into on the trip. It can be customized and has many other features that make it a must have app for people on the road. Download the app in your app store or visit www.driveweatherapp.com This episode is sponsored by Bison Transport with many opportunities for truck drivers in their fleet across Canada. Bison recognizes the increasing demands that face today's professional cross-border Driver and Bison is making a major investment to reflect this! Bison is pleased to announce an industry leading pay package for our cross-border Drivers and Owner Operators. Our U.S. Premiums have increased by $0.10/mile for Long Haul Cross-Border Drivers and Owner Operators. You can learn more about Bison and the opportunities available at www.bisondriving.com or call 1-800-527-5781 @BisonTransport #bisontransport This episode is also sponsored by The Trucking Network which holds mega job fairs across the Country. You can learn about all the upcoming events at www.thetruckingnetworkevents.ca About the Show LISTEN TO THE PODCAST- The show is available at www.theleadpedalpodcast.com , ITunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Tunein, iHeartradio, SoundCloud, and other popular podcast platforms. Thanks for listening JOIN THE LEAD PEDAL PODCAST FAN CLUB www.TheLeadPedalPodcastFanClub.com LISTEN TO LEAD PEDAL RADIO at www.LeadPedalRadio.com The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers talks all things trucking for people in the transportation industry helping them improve their business and careers. Interviews with industry professionals and truck drivers, trucking information, and other features on the industry are meant to be helpful for truck drivers and those in transportation. The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers has main episodes released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with bonus material on other days. You can learn more about the host and show on our website and make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com What does The Lead Pedal Podcast mean? The Lead (pronounced - Led) stands for acceleration or fast-track of your career or business. It is a play on words and we certainly are not here promoting speeding in the industry. We are hoping this information will help you become a professional driver faster than if you didn't know about many of these topics. Are you enjoying the show? If so we would appreciate you leaving us a rating and review on iTunes or on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com
Jawanda and Gill Talk Team Driving With Bison Transport Team Drivers Jawanda and Gill talk about their careers behind the wheel and why they like team driving with Bison Transport. Bison Transport with many opportunities for truck drivers in their fleet across Canada. Bison recognizes the increasing demands that face today's professional cross-border Driver and Bison is making a major investment to reflect this! Bison is pleased to announce an industry leading pay package for our cross-border Drivers and Owner Operators. Our U.S. Premiums have increased by $0.10/mile for Long Haul Cross-Border Drivers and Owner Operators. You can learn more about Bison and the opportunities available at www.bisondriving.com or call 1-800-527-5781 @BisonTransport #bisontransport About the Show LISTEN TO THE PODCAST- The show is available at www.theleadpedalpodcast.com , ITunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Tunein, iHeartradio, SoundCloud, and other popular podcast platforms. Thanks for listening JOIN THE LEAD PEDAL PODCAST FAN CLUB www.TheLeadPedalPodcastFanClub.com LISTEN TO LEAD PEDAL RADIO at www.LeadPedalRadio.com The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers talks all things trucking for people in the transportation industry helping them improve their business and careers. Interviews with industry professionals and truck drivers, trucking information, and other features on the industry are meant to be helpful for truck drivers and those in transportation. The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers has main episodes released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with bonus material on other days. You can learn more about the host and show on our website and make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com What does The Lead Pedal Podcast mean? The Lead (pronounced - Led) stands for acceleration or fast-track of your career or business. It is a play on words and we certainly are not here promoting speeding in the industry. We are hoping this information will help you become a professional driver faster than if you didn't know about many of these topics. Are you enjoying the show? If so we would appreciate you leaving us a rating and review on iTunes or on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com
Drive by the Weigh Scales with DriveWyze Can you imagine not having to stop at inspection stations when everyone else is required to enter for inspection? No more wondering if the scale is open or not. With DriveWyze technology you can do just that and save yourself time allowing more money in your pocket. Bruce talks with Doug Johnson of DriveWyze about how the technology works and who should be using it. You can learn more about DriveWyze at www.drivewyze.com This episode is sponsored by Bison Transport with many opportunities for truck drivers in their fleet across Canada. Bison recognizes the increasing demands that face today's professional cross-border Driver and Bison is making a major investment to reflect this! Bison is pleased to announce an industry leading pay package for our cross-border Drivers and Owner Operators. Our U.S. Premiums have increased by $0.10/mile for Long Haul Cross-Border Drivers and Owner Operators. You can learn more about Bison and the opportunities available at www.bisondriving.com or call 1-800-527-5781 @BisonTransport #bisontransport This episode is also sponsored by Ontario Truck Driving School has a number of courses to help you be successful when starting a career in transportation from heavy equipment to over the road trucking. You can learn more about starting your career at www.otds.com DriverCheck is a leader in drug and alcohol, cognitive, and workplace testing helping employers have a safe workplace for their staff. Learn how DriverCheck can help you be safe at www.drivercheck.ca About the Show LISTEN TO THE PODCAST- The show is available at www.theleadpedalpodcast.com , ITunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Tunein, iHeartradio, SoundCloud, and other popular podcast platforms. Thanks for listening JOIN THE LEAD PEDAL PODCAST FAN CLUB www.TheLeadPedalPodcastFanClub.com LISTEN TO LEAD PEDAL RADIO at www.LeadPedalRadio.com The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers talks all things trucking for people in the transportation industry helping them improve their business and careers. Interviews with industry professionals and truck drivers, trucking information, and other features on the industry are meant to be helpful for truck drivers and those in transportation. The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers has main episodes released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with bonus material on other days. You can learn more about the host and show on our website and make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com What does The Lead Pedal Podcast mean? The Lead (pronounced - Led) stands for acceleration or fast-track of your career or business. It is a play on words and we certainly are not here promoting speeding in the industry. We are hoping this information will help you become a professional driver faster than if you didn't know about many of these topics. Are you enjoying the show? If so we would appreciate you leaving us a rating and review on iTunes or on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com Join The Lead Pedal Podcast Fan Club where are loyal fans get first chance at specials, discounts on merchandise and much more.The club is free to join and you can learn more at www.theleadpedalpodcastfanclub.com
What's New for August 2022 News, Guests, and Events We have lots new with Lead Pedal Media. We have new sponsors, new radio shows, and we update you on upcoming events in the industry. Join us on our Lead Pedal Tailgate Tour in the month of August. Get all the information at www.leadpedalmedia.com This episode is sponsored by Bison Transport with many opportunities for truck drivers in their fleet across Canada. Bison recognizes the increasing demands that face today's professional cross-border Driver and Bison is making a major investment to reflect this! Bison is pleased to announce an industry leading pay package for our cross-border Drivers and Owner Operators. Our U.S. Premiums have increased by $0.10/mile for Long Haul Cross-Border Drivers and Owner Operators. You can learn more about Bison and the opportunities available at www.bisondriving.com or call 1-800-527-5781 @BisonTransport #bisontransport This episode is also sponsored by Ontario Truck Driving School has a number of courses to help you be successful when starting a career in transportation from heavy equipment to over the road trucking. You can learn more about starting your career at www.otds.com This episode is also sponsored by The Trucking Network which holds mega job fairs across the Country. You can learn about all the upcoming events at www.thetruckingnetworkevents.ca About the Show LISTEN TO THE PODCAST- The show is available at www.theleadpedalpodcast.com , ITunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Tunein, iHeartradio, SoundCloud, and other popular podcast platforms. Thanks for listening JOIN THE LEAD PEDAL PODCAST FAN CLUB www.TheLeadPedalPodcastFanClub.com LISTEN TO LEAD PEDAL RADIO at www.LeadPedalRadio.com The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers talks all things trucking for people in the transportation industry helping them improve their business and careers. Interviews with industry professionals and truck drivers, trucking information, and other features on the industry are meant to be helpful for truck drivers and those in transportation. The Lead Pedal Podcast for Truck Drivers has main episodes released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with bonus material on other days. You can learn more about the host and show on our website and make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com What does The Lead Pedal Podcast mean? The Lead (pronounced - Led) stands for acceleration or fast-track of your career or business. It is a play on words and we certainly are not here promoting speeding in the industry. We are hoping this information will help you become a professional driver faster than if you didn't know about many of these topics. Are you enjoying the show? If so we would appreciate you leaving us a rating and review on iTunes or on your favourite podcast platform. www.theleadpedalpodcast.com Join The Lead Pedal Podcast Fan Club where are loyal fans get first chance at specials, discounts on merchandise and much more.The club is free to join and you can learn more at www.theleadpedalpodcastfanclub.com
Our guest for the show is property attorney, Terry Little from Harper Little in Oxford. Do you need an attorney for a closing? How can you handle a boundary line dispute? Our callers asked many, many questions! https://www.harperlittlelaw.com/aboutYou only have one week to get your voter registration up to date. Our U.S. Congressmen are running for re-election: Trent Kelly, Bennie Thompson, Michael Guest, Steven PalazzoThis week: Circuit Clerks' offices MAY remain open from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m., including the noon hour (MS Code Ann. § 23-15-37(2)) for voter registration.Saturday, May 7th: Circuit Clerks' offices MUST remain open from 8 a.m. until 12 p.m. (MS Code Ann. § 23-15-37(2)) for voter registration. Monday May 9th is the Voter Registration Deadline, at 5:00 p.m. Applicants who register in-person in the Circuit or Municipal Clerk's Office on the 9th and those who mail registration applications postmarked no later than the 9th are eligible to vote in the June 7, 2022 General Election. (MS Code Ann. § 23-15-37(2); MS Code Ann. §23-15-47(2)(a)Primary Election Day (U.S. Congress): Polls open from 7 a.m. - 7 p.m. (MS Code Ann. § 23-15-1031; MS Code Ann. § 23-15-541(1))Mississippi Levee Commissioners General Election. Bolivar, Humphreys, Sharkey & Washington CountiesTerry Little was a guest on previous In Legal Terms podcasts: June 15, 2021 http://inlegalterms.mpbonline.org/episodes/in-legal-terms-property-lawNovember 17, 2020 http://inlegalterms.mpbonline.org/episodes/in-legal-terms-real-estate-lawNeed a lawyer? https://www.msbar.org/ has a lawyer directory and under For the Public there are a list of resources for pro bono assistance – that means free.Title insuranceBoundary issueLand in willSurvey and adverse possessionProperty from paying taxesTitleClosing delayedMineral rightsEstate and Power of Attorney See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
What do Generation Adidas Cup and Matias Almeyda have in common? No idea, other than we dug deep on both! Andrew, Doyle, David and Calen jump in the studio to chat about the stories of the day. Plus, everything you need to know from Week 7, including LAFC's Shield hopes, the Fire's ceiling and Real Salt Lake's Twitter banter gone wrong! :55 - American youth soccer is in an amazing place - Generation adidas Cup recap 22:15 - Our U.S. Open Cup Games to Watch 25:39 - Best things we saw in Week 7 32:00 - Matias Almeyda out in San Jose 54:02 - Minnesota finally wins, Colorado's defense is slightly concerning 56:35 - LAFC are flying - what is their ceiling? 1:00:42 - SKC struggling, but Peter Vermes' job should be safe 1:05:08 - Toronto hands Philly their first loss of the season 1:06:46 - NYCFC hammers RSL, Taty gets back on track 1:11:45 - Quick hit results
On today's show: The Democratic Party are complete hypocrites. Our U.S Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield urges world leaders to boot Russia from the Human Rights and Security Councils while democrats continue to ignore China's atrocities to their Muslim population; Biden wants more oil from Canada but doesn't want the Keystone XL Pipeline resurrected. Lastly, offers up 3 ways the Florida legislature can tame the Mouse, Disney World, so they no longer have an unfair advantage over other American businesses. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As the U.S. government attempts to combat high gas prices by drawing on its oil reserves, investors should pay attention to the impacts on the U.S. economy and consumer behavior.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, April 6th at 10 a.m. in New York.Last week President Biden announced the largest release of oil reserves in history, about 1 million barrels per day for the next 6 months from the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move is intended to put downward pressure on the price of gasoline by increasing the supply of oil, thereby relieving pressure on the American consumer from higher costs at the pump. Will it work? That remains to be seen, but investors should pay close attention, not just because it impacts their cost of driving, but also because it impacts the outlook for the U.S. economy by affecting how consumers behave.Our U.S. economics team, led by Ellen Zentner, has done some work worth highlighting here. The big takeaway is this; oil price shocks do dampen consumer activity, but not right away. The jump in oil prices seems to have to sustain itself before having a big impact. For example, consumption in real dollar terms seems to weaken after initial oil price increases, but it's not until 2 to 3 months after that shock that consumers start to buy less of other things in order to have enough money to pay the higher costs of filling up their cars. Looking at this effect on a specific product, for instance automobiles, you can see a similar pattern. Spending on cars doesn't seem to change in the first month after a price shock but drops almost 10% thereafter for 8 months.So the bottom line is this; the White House's move on releasing oil reserves has some time to play out. But if it doesn't reduce gas prices in the next couple months, then it becomes one cost pressure among several, including labor costs, that could start slowing the U.S. economy from its currently healthy pace. It's one reason our equity strategy team continues to see higher costs creating some pressure in key sectors of the stock market, notably consumer services, apparel and staples.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.
On today's show: The Democratic Party are complete hypocrites. Our U.S Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield urges world leaders to boot Russia from the Human Rights and Security Councils while democrats continue to ignore China's atrocities to their Muslim population; Biden wants more oil from Canada but doesn't want the Keystone XL Pipeline resurrected. Lastly, offers up 3 ways the Florida legislature can tame the Mouse, Disney World, so they no longer have an unfair advantage over other American businesses. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, for over ten years providing you news and commentary rooted in the principles of individual liberty, personal responsibility, limited government and the rule of law. On Friday's show, we visit with William Yeatman, Research Fellow with the Cato Institute, about Biden's State of the Union address, the lack of a stop-gap federal spending bill, and the background of Supreme Court Justice candidate, Judge Jackson Brown. We visit with Our U.S. Congressman, Byron Donalds, about Democrat policy going into the mid-term elections, and we discuss the invasion of Ukraine. We visit with the Domestic Correspondent for the Foundation for Economic Education, Brad Palumbo about Senator Rick Scott's plan for legislation after the mid-terms. We also visit with Larry Bell, Endowed Professor at the University of Houston, and author of his recently released book, “Beyond Flagpoles and Footprints: Pioneering the Space Frontier,” about the need for applying common sense principles to politics. Please join us for Monday's show. We have terrific guests including the Founder and Publisher of HistoryCentral.com, Marc Schulman, President Emeritus of the Foundation for Economic Education Larry Reed, and author and former Barron's Washington Bureau Chief, Jim McTague. Please join us live at 7 a.m. on bobharden.com, or access the show anytime on podcast platforms (iTunes, TuneIn, Spotify, and Stitcher, Vurbl, and ChoiceSocial).
Happy New Year to all of our listeners, and welcome to the first Mondoweiss podcast episode of 2022. In November of last year a Palestinian Day of Solidarity was held in Philadelphia. At the event Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney delivered a proclamation in solidarity with the Palestinians. Our U.S. correspondent Michael Arria spoke with one of the local organizers, Jude Husein. - - - - - Support our work Help us continue our critical independent coverage of events in Palestine, Israel, and related U.S. politics. Donate today at https://mondoweiss.net/donate Links Philadelphia Mayor Hosts Pro-Palestine Rally Share this podcast Share The Mondoweiss Podcast with your followers on Twitter. Click here to post a tweet! If you enjoyed this episode, head over to Podchaser and leave us a review and follow the show! Follow The Mondoweiss Podcast wherever you listen Audible Apple Podcasts Deezer Gaana Google Podcasts Overcast Player.fm RadioPublic Spotify Stitcher TuneIn YouTube Our RSS feed We want your feedback! Email dave@mondoweiss.net Leave us an audio message at SparkPipe More from Mondoweiss Subscribe to our free email newsletters: Daily Headlines Weekly Briefing The Shift tracks U.S. politics COVID-19 in Palestine Follow us on social media Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube LinkedIn Tumblr
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