Podcasts about economic projections

Title: Watch the Dots: Previewing June's FOMC DecisionDescription: Yelena Shulyatyeva says today's focus from the FOMC meeting will be "the dots" or the latest Summary of Economic Projections, which will indicate the central bank's forward-looking rate cut assumptions. Yelena adds that despite downward surprises in the last 4 inflation readings, she believes inflation will come via tariff policy as it slowly trickles into the economy. She discusses the state of the labor market as it relates to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and stable inflation.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Inflation and interest rates and elections OH MY!  Hear from one of the most savvy financial advisors in the US, David Pickler.  In today's episode he talks about the economic juggling act in motion, the exponential change that has led us to the fourth industrial revolution, and the biggest problems of the next generation.  Join us for a wealth of economic knowledge!

Economic forecasting is particularly challenging during global crises, with predictions often hampered by uncertainty and external factors.Hwee Kwan Chow and Keen Meng Choy from Singapore Management University examine Singapore's GDP and inflation forecasts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, uncovering the influence of government projections and herding behaviour that affect prediction accuracy.Read the original research: doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02311-8

As credit resilience weakens with a worsening fundamental backdrop, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests investors reconsider their portfolio quality.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why we think near term improvement may be temporary, and thus an opportunity to improve credit quality. It's Friday March 28th at 2pm in London. In volatile markets, it is always hard to parse how much is emotion, and how much is real change. As you would have heard earlier this week from my colleague Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, we see a window for short-term relief in U.S. stock markets, as a number of indicators suggest that markets may have been oversold. But for credit, we think this relief will be temporary. Fundamentals around the medium-term story are on the wrong track, with both growth and inflation moving in the wrong direction. Credit investors should use this respite to improve portfolio quality. Taking a step back, our original thinking entering 2025 was that the future presented a much wider range of economic scenarios, not a great outcome for credit per se, and some real slowing of U.S. growth into 2026, again not a particularly attractive outcome. Yet we also thought it would take time for these risks to arrive. For the economy, it entered 2025 with some pretty decent momentum. We thought it would take time for any changes in policy to both materialize and change the real economic trajectory. Meanwhile, credit had several tailwinds, including attractive yields, strong demand and stable balance sheet metrics. And so we initially thought that credit would remain quite resilient, even if other asset classes showed more volatility. But our conviction in that resilience from credit is weakening as the fundamental backdrop is getting worse. Changes to U.S. policy have been more aggressive, and happened more quickly than we previously expected. And partly as a result, Morgan Stanley's forecasts for growth, inflation and policy rates are all moving in the wrong direction – with forecasts showing now weaker growth, higher inflation and fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than we thought at the start of this year. And it's not just us. The Federal Reserve's latest Summary of Economic Projections, recently released, show a similar expectation for lower growth and higher inflation relative to the Fed's prior forecast path. In short, Morgan Stanley's economic forecasts point to rising odds of a scenario we think is challenging: weaker growth, and yet a central bank that may be hesitant to cut rates to support the economy, given persistent inflation. The rising risks of a scenario of weaker growth, higher inflation and less help from central bank policy temper our enthusiasm to buy the so-called dip – and add exposure given some modest recent weakness. Our U.S. credit strategy team, led by Vishwas Patkar, thinks that U.S. investment grade spreads are only 'fair', given these changing conditions, while spreads for U.S. high yield and U.S. loans should actually now be modestly wider through year-end – given the rising risks. In short, credit investors should try to keep powder dry, resist the urge to buy the dip, and look to improve portfolio quality. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

We break down the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision, the release of their minutes, the press conference, and the updated Summary of Economic Projections. We'll also take a look at key macroeconomic highlights from the past week, including retail sales, housing data, and insights from regional Fed surveys and indices. Finally, we sift for some key takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association's Q4 2024 report on commercial mortgage debt outstanding. Key Moments:01:36 Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Economic Projections06:27 Impact on Commercial Real Estate08:18 Macro Highlights: Retail Sales and Housing Data10:44 Manufacturing Indexes and Industrial Real Estate19:41 Financial Conditions and Stress Indexes24:18 Mortgage Bankers Association Q4 Report29:07 Upcoming Conferences and Events Resources Mentioned:FOMC meeting – https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20250319.htmAdvance Monthly Sales For Retail And Food Services, February 2025 - https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdfMonthly New Residential Constructino, February 2025 - https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.htmlEmpire State Manufacturing Survey - https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overviewPhilly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/manufacturing-business-outlook-surveyMortgage Bankers Association's Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding quarterly report - https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/03/18/commercial-and-multifamily-mortgage-debt-outstanding-increased--47.7-billion-in-third-quarter-of-2024Email us - altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

* A new bridge and a road widening project are aimed at helping a huge traffic problem in St. Tammany. We'll get the details from Daniel Gitlin with DOTD. * We recap the Federal Reserve's meeting amid economic uncertainty with Greg McBride, an analyst from Bankrate. How is the economy looking from your household?

LIVE REACTION: Fed Decision & Powell's Press Conference with Lobo Tiggre! Join Kai Hoffmann and Lobo Tiggre as they went live to react in real-time to the latest Federal Reserve decision and Jerome Powell's press conference! Did the Fed shock the markets again? How did gold, stocks, and the dollar react?--------------------

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities temporarily, but declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire. What renewed strikes on Gaza mean for Israel's coalition government. The Federal Reserve wraps up its latest meeting today and is widely expected to keep rates on hold. And Nvidia unveils its latest AI chip. Find our recommended read here and our exclusive on the U.S. suspending efforts to counter Russian sabotage is here. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter here. Find the latest Reuters Econ World podcast here. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

I provided this exclusively to my Culture Shockers to start the year off, now I want to share these projections with the entire Black community. Make sure you take notes on the companies and industries highlighted in this presentation. Please visit us at www.cultureshockinvestments.com to join the discord community or schedule a 1 on 1 consultation catered to you!

I provided this exclusively to my Culture Shockers to start the year off, now I want to share these projections with the entire Black community. Make sure you take notes on the companies and industries highlighted in this presentation. Please visit us at www.cultureshockinvestments.com to join the discord community or schedule a 1 on 1 consultation catered to you!

In football, it's always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or man-to-man?  In business or in military maneuvers the same rule applies – keep them guessing. However, in macro-economic management, it is better to make your plans clear.  That way businesses can feel more confident in hiring and investing, as can consumers when deciding to buy.  It is one of the reasons the Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (or SEP) and so frequently repeats its determination to achieve 2% inflation. 

Welcome to Dentist Money Two Cents, a look at the latest financial and economic news from the past week.
 On this episode, Matt, Jake, and Rabih discuss the Federal Reserve's economic projections and their impact on the economy, including GDP, umemployment, and inflation. They also talk about Jim Carrey's financial habits, highlighting the importance of mindful spending. Lastly, they share insights on market predictions for 2025 and how to navigate future trends. Book a free consultation with a CFP® advisor who only works with dentists. Get an objective financial assessment and learn how Dentist Advisors can help you live your rich life. Enjoy The Dentist Money Show? Vote for us as the Dental Fan Favorite podcast as many times you want! Vote at dentwoo.com/vote/ 

US equity futures are slightly weaker. European markets are trading lower, while Asian equities ended mostly lower. Market attention remains on this week's central bank policy meetings. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25-bp on Wednesday, though the updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot will likely draw more focus. Markets have been scaling back expectations for 2025 rate cuts. The BoE is set to update policy on Thursday, and the BoJ decision will follow on Friday, with both expected to keep rates unchanged. Weak Chinese activity data continues to highlight calls for further stimulus from Beijing, foreshadowing looser policy into 2025. Recent commentary from European Central Bank officials has supported the case for additional easing, though opinions remain divided on whether cuts will occur gradually.Companies Mentioned: Alibaba Group, Youngor Fashion Co., McCormick & Co., Shein

This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Victory Lap (03:38) Quinn's Framework (06:11) Bullish Rate Cut? (09:30) Summary of Economic Projections (14:32) Bullish Market Signals (18:05) The World Trade (21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle (24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk (27:50) Private Credit (29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt (31:43) Permissionless Ad (32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle (34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI (37:13) Economic Expectations (39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls (44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone (50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity (53:32) The Banana Zone (58:58) Monetary Matters (01:01:09) Balancing Market Views — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

US futures are indicating a flat open today. European equity markets are trading slightly lower, while Asian markets finished mixed. In top stories, the debate over the Fed's upcoming rate decision remains front and center. The market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 50-basis point rate cut at today's FOMC meeting, though economists are leaning toward a 25-basis point reduction. The updated Summary of Economic Projections will be closely watched, with forecasts suggesting 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. However, market pricing implies as much as 110 basis points in cuts by year-end.Companies Mentioned: Google, BlackRock, Microsoft, Brookfield Asset Management, NVIDIA, Nippon Steel, United States Steel

Join Andrew Wilkinson and Neil Azous, CIO of Rareview Capital, as they dissect the latest economic shifts ahead of the FOMC meeting. From anticipated interest rate cuts to global market reactions, they explore key insights on inflation, unemployment, and market dynamics. Tune in for expert analysis and actionable strategies for investors navigating today's complex financial landscape.  

This is the 5th episode of a five-part series on The Daily Coffee Pro by Map It Forward Podcast, hosted by Map It Forward founder, Lee Safar.This week's guest on the podcast is Espresso Technician and coffee professional, Spencer Perez. Spencer is part of a growing number of espresso technicians who have formed a community on a Discord server called Service Layer. This series explores the rapidly evolving role of the espresso tech today.In this final episode of this series of The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward, Lee and Spencer discuss the evolving culture of espresso technicians in the coffee industry. They explore how techs with coffee backgrounds bring a new layer of empathy and understanding to their roles, impacting local economies and the industry at large. The episode highlights the importance of trust between cafe owners and technicians, the complexities of choosing the right equipment, and the broader impacts of economic shifts within the coffee value chain. Spencer shares insights into the challenges faced by espresso techs, including market saturation and economic downturns, and emphasizes the need for resiliency and diversified services. Tune in to learn how this emerging shift in espresso tech culture can positively influence the coffee industry.00:00 Introduction and Sponsor Message01:00 Welcome and Series Conclusion01:20 Emerging Shift in Espresso Technician Culture02:12 Technicians with Coffee Backgrounds06:03 Building Trust with Clients10:44 Economic Projections and Industry Impact13:27 Adapting to Market Changes20:37 Future of Specialty Coffee20:58 Connecting with Espresso Technicians23:23 Closing Remarks and Sign OffConnect with the community of technicians at https://www.servicelayer.coffee/••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

This is the 5th episode of a five-part series on The Daily Coffee Pro by Map It Forward Podcast, hosted by Map It Forward founder, Lee Safar.This week's guest on the podcast is Espresso Technician and coffee professional, Spencer Perez. Spencer is part of a growing number of espresso technicians who have formed a community on a Discord server called Service Layer. This series explores the rapidly evolving role of the espresso tech today.In this final episode of this series of The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward, Lee and Spencer discuss the evolving culture of espresso technicians in the coffee industry. They explore how techs with coffee backgrounds bring a new layer of empathy and understanding to their roles, impacting local economies and the industry at large. The episode highlights the importance of trust between cafe owners and technicians, the complexities of choosing the right equipment, and the broader impacts of economic shifts within the coffee value chain. Spencer shares insights into the challenges faced by espresso techs, including market saturation and economic downturns, and emphasizes the need for resiliency and diversified services. Tune in to learn how this emerging shift in espresso tech culture can positively influence the coffee industry.00:00 Introduction and Sponsor Message01:00 Welcome and Series Conclusion01:20 Emerging Shift in Espresso Technician Culture02:12 Technicians with Coffee Backgrounds06:03 Building Trust with Clients10:44 Economic Projections and Industry Impact13:27 Adapting to Market Changes20:37 Future of Specialty Coffee20:58 Connecting with Espresso Technicians23:23 Closing Remarks and Sign OffConnect with the community of technicians at https://www.servicelayer.coffee/••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••Support this podcast by supporting our Patreon:https://bit.ly/MIFPatreonThe Daily Coffee Pro by Map It Forward Podcast Host: Lee Safarhttps://www.mapitforward.coffeehttps://www.instagram.com/mapitforward.coffeehttps://www.instagram.com/leesafar••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Fed May Let Inflation Run Higher If Unemployment Rate Surges At last week's Fed meeting and press conference, the markets rallied as the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections suggested that #theFed members are still anticipating 3 rate cuts in 2024. Yet what got less attention, but may be even more impactful, is that Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed may be willing to let inflation run hotter than its 2% mandate if there's a surge in the unemployment rate (which has risen from 3.4% last May to 3.9% this February). So in today's show we look at the Fed's recent comments, as well as the reaction in the precious metals in the days following the Fed's announcement, that occurred after yet another increase in the #silver short position held by the banks. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - Find out more about Silver Viper Minerals and their La Virginia project by going to: https://silverviperminerals.com/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Silver Viper Minerals, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-silver-viper-minerals/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

In this episode, we unpack the results of the Fed meeting and the release of the Fed's March Summary of Economic Projections. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of Stifel Financial Corp. or its affiliates (collectively, Stifel).  This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.  Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss.  © Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated | Member SIPC & NYSE | www.stifel.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into existing-home sales, the FOMC meeting, rate cuts, The Wealth Effect, and the equities market. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeSteve Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:42 – For the month of February, existing-home sales surged 9.5% month-over-month, and this level of an increase has not been seen since February of 2023 03:06 – Comments on the FOMC meeting that took place earlier in the week, resulting in the Fed deciding they will keep rates unchanged07:52 – During the FOMC meeting, the Fed revealed the Dot Plot and its Summary of Economic Projections. This came as a relief for the market as it signified the Fed continues to forecast three rate cuts for 2024 instead of only two11:52 – Though the FOMC meeting did not discuss The Wealth Effect, we hear comments surrounding this concept14:59 – Remarks about the FOMC meeting's influence on the equities market  Additional Resources:Key Questions: Are Renewed Banking Fears Something to Fear? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

I think the Fed is extremely data dependent, if anything, too data dependent, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC focus podcast, Wong joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to unpack the March FOMC meeting. The pair discuss the surprises and developments from the meeting, including revisions to the Statement of Economic Projections and their implications for the path of Fed policy. Revisions to longer-run rate expectations, intermeeting black swan events, thresholds for interest rate cuts, and risk cases to economic forecasts are also discussed.

Inflation and interest rates and elections OH MY!  Hear from one of the most savvy financial advisors in the US, David Pickler.  In today's episode he talks about the economic juggling act in motion, the exponential change that has led us to the fourth industrial revolution, and the biggest problems of the next generation.  Join us for a wealth of economic knowledge!

On this AAP Podcast episode, Chris Versace catches up with the man behind AAP's charts, Bob Lang discussing reasons behind the market's continued strength and why the Vix is “double bullish” for the market. The two discuss Barclays' boosting its S&P 500 target to 5,300 and what it could take to get there. Along the way, Bob and Chris discuss Fed policy and why the Fed's coming update for its Economic Projections could sour some investors. Bob goes on record for when he thinks the Fed will cut rates this year and shares how many rate cuts he sees in 2025. All that and much more including what stock we added to the Bullpen this week, why our Nvidia (NVDA) price target could be conservative, what Costco (COST) and the Savannah Bananas have in common, and how the stock market tends to perform on Leap.

Robert Asselin, Senior Vice-President, Policy at the Business Council of Canada and a former advisor to two Prime Ministers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Summary of Economic Projections say that rates will fall until 2027. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Yesterday's updated Summary of Economic Projections clearly supports market expectations for a soft landing, especially when compared to the SEP from last December. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The updated dot plot will likely attract the most attention when the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections today. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that a lot happened so let's get into it.In the week ahead we will get the US Fed's interest rate decision, and American inflation and retail sales data. We will also get central bank updates from the ECB, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank, and Brazil's central bank.But first up we need to report that China is now in deflation again. Consumer prices fell -0.5% in November from a year ago, steeper than a -0.2% drop in the prior month and compared with market forecasts of a moderated -0.1% fall. It was the fastest decline in Chinese inflation since November 2020, driven my faster falling food costs, at the strongest pace in over two years and the biggest impact here was from a sharper fall in pork prices. Beef, lamb and milk prices are also falling although nothing like the pork prices. Meantime, non-food inflation slowed notably from +0.4% from +0.7%.Chinese producer prices also fell faster and by more than anticipated.But even in the face of current and obvious economic restraints, Beijing looks set to launch an ambitious growth target for 2024. Maybe as high as +5%. But there is no indication that huge stimulus programs are about to be launched. New debt support however will be a part of it. One thing is becoming clearer however, Hong Kong's days as a financial center are drawing to an end with mainland policies undermining its judicial independence and court transparency. Contracts entered into there have to meet Beijing's control measures. This sort of window dressing doesn't apply when it puts the CCP in a bad light.Across China, presale properties are taking a hit as homebuyers fear that financially distressed developers will not be able to deliver despite upfront payments. The share of presale properties between January and October this year slumped to the lowest point since 2017.Meanwhile, Taiwan's export growth was expected to have turned positive in November and that is how it turned out - although the year-on-year gain wasn't quite what was expected even if the miss was minor. It has been a year and a half since they have had a gain like this, however.Across the Pacific, the US economy added +199,000 jobs in November, more than the +150,000 added in October and better than the expected +180,000 gain. The strength was across the board, including for manufacturing.Away from the headline seasonally-adjusted data, the actual employer payrolls came in at a record 158.5 mln, up a strong +488,000 from October. For the broader household survey of employment which includes the unincorporated self-employed, it rose to 162.1 mln and also an all-time record, swelling +473,000 in the month (revealing a small shift to company payrolls). Either way you look at it there were many more workers getting paid in November than October, +3.4 mln more in a year (+2.8 mln more on company payrolls). It is a significant shift (and achievement).The golden jobs run is lifting confidence. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey surged to 69.4 in December, rising from 61.3 in the previous month and surpassing market expectations set at 62.0. It was the highest level recorded since August, largely driven by positive shifts in the expected path of inflation. They dropped to 3.1% from November's 4.5%, marking the lowest level recorded since March 2021.And there doesn't seem to be any stress showing up in American consumer debt levels. They rose a much tamer (and minor) +US$5.1 bln in October from September to US$4.968 tln or just 18.1% of US GDP. A modest +US$9 bln rise was expected and that too would have been low. Rising employment and solid pay increases (+4.0%, so higher than inflation) are helping consumers keep a lid on their consumer (non-housing) debt. If the global economy does wobble, it won't be because of US household finances in the current state.All this run of positive data has markets pulling back on their enthusiastic expectation that the Fed will be cutting rates in 2024. Again, it is the Fed that is getting the future view right, not the commentariat. They are meeting this week and will announce the results of its policy deliberations on Thursday (NZT) along with their closely watched and highly anticipated quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Markets expect no change in their policy rate at 5.5%, and holding at its 20+ year high. (Remember, markets have priced in American rate cuts starting in Q2-2024.)The release of the December version of the USDA WASDE report caused barely a ripple, mainly because they report a sanguine crop and livestock situation worldwide with adequate stocks and balanced demand and supply. US beef import estimates are raised for 2024 on expectations of demand for processing-grade beef. US milk production is retreating somewhat.The UN FAO also reported on December global food prices and they said the same. Food price stress has long eased and the global costs of meat and dairy have eased more than most other categories. Overall prices are falling and back to early 2021 levels and far below the intervening bubble.The Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark policy rate at 6.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting on Friday. They seem confident they are keeping inflation within their generous 2-6% target range. The rate hold was in line with market expectations. India's annual inflation slowed to a four-month low of 4.9% in October.In Australia, the incoming Labor Government ordered a competition review of how banks treat retail savers. They were particularly keen to get banks to automatically switch savers to the 'best rates' on rollover. Borrowers got the RBA's rate changes in a full pass-through, but savers did not. That review has now ended and the results will be tabled this coming week. It will be interesting to see whether the industry responds with generally higher savings rate offers, or higher lending rates.Prior to that, over the weekend their Government announced it will raise fees for foreigners who buy existing houses and will penalise them if they leave the properties vacant. They also decided they will incentivise foreign investors for build Build-to-Rent properties to boost their housing supply.We should also note that Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced she will step down as premier this coming week after nine years in power.The UST 10yr yield is holding firmer at 4.23% but little-changed in a week. The price of gold will start today just on US$2005/oz and up +US$8 from Saturday.Oil prices are up +US$1 from Saturday at just under US$71.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$76/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$74.50 and US$79/bbl so a net -US$3 shift lower since then.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.2 USc and up a minor +10 bps from Saturday. A week ago we were at 62 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 56.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.2, -50 bps lower than a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$43,820 very little changed from this time Saturday (+0.3). However, a week ago it was US$38,773, so a +13% rise from then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Four times per year, the Federal Open Market Committee releases a Summary of Economic Projections that reports FOMC participants' projections for the federal funds rate and key economic variables. The SEP, featuring the so-called “dot plot,” gives markets a sense of where the Fed feels the economy and monetary policy are heading the next few years, but the implications are not always clear. In this episode, Sophia Kearney-Lederman of FHN Financial talks about what goes into the Fed's projections, how to interpret them, and how much value they have at this point in the tightening cycle.

The UAW strike is now seven days in, with little light at the end of the tunnel. Where is the impasse headed? Recent IPOs have sank since buoyant debuts. Why are ARM, CART, and KVYO now trading at or below their initial prices? The Fed released its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. What are the Fed's projections for inflation, the economy, and unemployment, and what does it mean for your money?

#Gold, #Silver Trend Higher Ahead Of Latest Fed Meeting Once again it's time for another Federal Reserve policy meeting, where they provide their latest update on their balancing act between keeping up their fight against inflation, and avoiding a recession/banking collapse in response to the higher interest rates. As many forecasted over the past 10 years during the 0% interest rate decade, it's become a tricky dynamic to maneuver. We've already seen bank failures earlier this year that forced the Fed to launch a new funding facility to take assets that were losing value off of the banks' balance sheet. And as we will cover in today's show, the pressure in the banking system still appears to be far from over. Yet the higher rates for longer has left gold and silver in a holding pattern throughout the year, with silver slightly down on the year, while gold is slightly above where it began 2023. Both precious metals are rising this morning ahead of the Fed's announcement, where in particular the market will be looking for the updated Summary of Economic Projections. Which in June continued to suggest that the Fed voting board was still expecting interest rate cuts in 2024 and beyond. Will the rising energy prices and CPI readings impact what the Fed will do going forward? It's not an easy position they're in at this point, which we discuss in today's show, as well as some recent silver data. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - To get 5 ounce silver Nordic bars for $1.99 over spot email: Arcadia@MilesFranklin.com To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) We do receive compensation from Miles Franklin from orders placed through our show. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-miles-franklin-precious-metals/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

#Gold, #Silver Trend Higher Ahead Of Latest Fed Meeting Once again it's time for another Federal Reserve policy meeting, where they provide their latest update on their balancing act between keeping up their fight against inflation, and avoiding a recession/banking collapse in response to the higher interest rates. As many forecasted over the past 10 years during the 0% interest rate decade, it's become a tricky dynamic to maneuver. We've already seen bank failures earlier this year that forced the Fed to launch a new funding facility to take assets that were losing value off of the banks' balance sheet. And as we will cover in today's show, the pressure in the banking system still appears to be far from over. Yet the higher rates for longer has left gold and silver in a holding pattern throughout the year, with silver slightly down on the year, while gold is slightly above where it began 2023. Both precious metals are rising this morning ahead of the Fed's announcement, where in particular the market will be looking for the updated Summary of Economic Projections. Which in June continued to suggest that the Fed voting board was still expecting interest rate cuts in 2024 and beyond. Will the rising energy prices and CPI readings impact what the Fed will do going forward? It's not an easy position they're in at this point, which we discuss in today's show, as well as some recent silver data. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - To get 5 ounce silver Nordic bars for $1.99 over spot email: Arcadia@MilesFranklin.com To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) We do receive compensation from Miles Franklin from orders placed through our show. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-miles-franklin-precious-metals/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

The US Federal Reserve's updated forecasts for its benchmark interest rate - due Thursday morning Singapore - are looming as a potential decider for a Treasuries market at risk of a third year of losses.  The two key questions are whether policymakers retain expectations for one more 25 basis-point rate hike by year-end, and how much easing they are pencilling in for 2024. The Federal Open Markets Committee FOMC is also due to release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the "dot plot," or a glimpse into participating members' expectations regarding the future path of interest rates. So how are stocks, bonds and the US dollar reacting ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision? On Money in the Market, Hongbin Jeong speaks to Richard Bullock, Senior Research Analyst, Newton Investment Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, to find out more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finally, traditional indicators also may be missing the mark in predicting persistent inflation.  In particular, in the June Summary of Economic Projections, most members of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee in effect professed that an unemployment rate of 4% or higher was necessary to attain the Fed's long-term objective of 2% inflation.  However, the unemployment rate has now been below 4% for 21 straight months and, yet, since March of last year, year-over-year wage growth has drifted down from a peak of 5.9% to 4.3% last month. 

The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. The Fed now sees slightly higher economic growth, unemployment rising a little slower, and inflation running slightly higher through the remainder of 2023 based on their June projections versus their March projections. Inflation has come down the fastest over the last 12 month outside of a recession. Is the Fed continuing to fight the last war of inflation, as the potential of excess tightening working with a lag leading to a potentially deeper economic contraction? After the Fed pause at the June meeting, what is the likelihood of further rate hikes? These choices can lead to different outcomes for the economy and therefore investing. Let's look at their projections from June and what they mean for future meetings and the economy. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the 5%-5.25% range, marking the first skip after 10 consecutive increases going back to March of last year. While officials' efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal. Investors' focus will be on the Fed's quarterly dot plot in its Summary of Economic Projections, which is expected to show the policy benchmark rate at 5.1% at the end of 2023. In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss comments from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who claims to be surprised at the way the US economy has weathered higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and banking turmoil over the past year.Chris and Saied look at recent Fed data, indicating that Americans have a record amount of credit card debt right now — close to $990 billion.They also offer some thoughts on a revised home prices forecast from Goldman Sachs strategists, who now predict a smaller decline this year — 2.2% decline in 2023, down from 6.1%. Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:The little signs that people are noticing that signal a recession.Why people are reluctant to change their living standards.Why consumers will start cutting back on discretionary spending.And so much more...Resources:"The U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient,” Goldman Sachs CEO" (CNBC)"Americans have almost $990 billion in credit card debt" (Marketplace)"The hidden risk on bank balance sheets" (Axios)"'I told you so': Dave Ramsey made the correct call on US real estate 18 months ago — but is he still right about housing in 2023? Here's what the financial guru thinks now" (Moneywise)https://moneywise.com/real-estate/dave-ramseys-2023-real-estate-predictions"Wall Street is divided on the outlook for US house prices. Here's what 6 experts have recently said." (Markets Insider)"Fed Is Set to Pause and Assess the Effect of Rate Hikes" (Bloomberg)

After a rundown of the markets and macro news for June 12-16, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover the June FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell's press conference (15:31). The federal funds rate remained unchanged, and Sam goes through what that meant for the interest charged on reserves, the overnight reverse repo facility*, the amount available to borrow at the banking window and the caps on quantitative tightening (QT). He then recaps the Summary of Economic Projections (17:32), which maintains the Fed's hawkish stance on potential tightening (a position echoed in post-meeting Fedspeak (13:12)). Jeff then runs down Powell's Other Way 'Round Bro press conference (20:57), where in a break from tradition Powell's comments bolstered market activity as the event went on. Jeff discusses how similar Powell's language was to the last press conference, flagging exceptions such as the Fed chair's parsing of “skip” and “pause” in regard to the June rates decision. Once again, Powell masterfully avoided any answers on QT policy. In the breakdown of the market week, Sam notes that risk assets really liked Wednesday's Fed move (2:11), with the S&P 500 surging, while fixed income shrugged off the hike break (4:36). Commodities scored their second up week in a row (6:52) and Bitcoin was flat (8:25). Macro Land (9:18) had a very busy week beyond the FOMC meeting, including CPI and PPI prints as well as retail sales numbers and jobless claims. Next week's holiday-shortened week will bring a run of Fed officials speaking in public (32:43). This episode was recorded before market close on June 16, 2023. *For more on the overnight reverse repo facility, check out: MMM Episode 112: Red Week, Recession Metrics and the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility

 I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. The Fed now sees growth slower, unemployment rising a little slower, and inflation running slightly higher through the remainder of 2023 based on their March projections. This forces the Fed to make a choice, do they focus on supporting the weakening economic outlook, or continue to prioritize the fight against higher but slowly falling inflation? Does the recent banking crisis cause them to rethink potential rate hikes after the May meeting. These choices can lead to different outcomes for the economy and therefore investing. Let's look at their projections from March and what it means for the May meeting. 

LoanCare has been successfully navigating clients and homeowners through market change for 40 years. The mortgage subservicer is known for delivering superior customer experience through personalization and convenience. Its award-winning portfolio management tool, LoanCare Analytics™, was built to support MSR investors with a focus on customer engagement, liquidity, and credit risk. LoanCare is part of Fidelity National Financial, a Fortune 500 company and leading provider of services to real estate and mortgage industries.

The Federal Reserve's just-announced rate hike of 25 BPS puts more strain on an economy under increasing pressure, and commercial real estate markets are among the many areas of the economy that are vulnerable to these rising rates. At the same time, the the growing chasm between expensive mortgage payments and more-affordable rental prices will continue to bolster multifamily demand and drive would-be homebuyers into the rental market. Sources discussed in this episode: Federal Reserve Bank of the United States: “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement” - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230322a.htm Federal Reserve Bank of the United States: "Summary of Economic Projections" - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230322.pdf RealPage: “The Best and Worst Performing Submarkets Since the Pandemic” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/the-best-and-worst-performing-submarkets-since-the-pandemic/ Realtor.com: “Looking for a Deal? Too Bad. Rents Are Rising the Fastest in the Cheapest Real Estate Markets” - https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/rents-are-rising-the-fastest-in-the-cheapest-real-estate-markets/ Institutional Property Advisors: “Multifamily Population Trends” - https://www.institutionalpropertyadvisors.com/research/special-report/2023/03/special-report-march-multifamily-population-trends For the latest multifamily news from across the internet, visit the Gray Report website: https://www.grayreport.com/ Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest.

After reviewing a March 20-24 market week that brought a little bit of green, DoubleLine's Jeff Mayberry and Sam Lau recap and review the Federal Open Market Committee's March meeting as well as Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell's press conference (14:30). Sam runs down changes to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (19:06) and dot plots (21:02), including speculation on the identity of the FOMC member projecting a federal funds rate of 5.9% at the end of 2023 (the median was 5.1%). Jeff breaks down Powell's press conference (23:07), which kicked off with a focus on the banking crisis. Conference highlights include Powell's projection of confidence, his insistence that the current balance-sheet expansion is temporary lending to banks and not QE (25:38), Powell's assertion that all depositors are safe and how that squares with what Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been saying (27:50) and his harsh words for SVB management (30:11). In the rundown of the market week (1:54), Sam reports some positive performance for the S&P 500, the Agg and Bitcoin. Over in Macro Land (10:08), Jeff talks a steady jobless claims report, PMI numbers that could be pointing to a pickup in manufacturing and the Fed's balance-sheet numbers, among other topics. Next week (35:13) will bring some numbers on home prices, personal income and spending, and the latest print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Fed Vice Chair Michael S. Barr is also scheduled to speak before Congress on the banking crisis. This episode was recorded after market close March 24, 2023.

At the end of January, spotlight will shift from earnings to the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week as they wrap up their 2-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, February 1. This wee Brian discusses how market expectations are set for an increase of 25 basis points (bps) in the fed funds rate, which would shift the Fed's target range up to 4.50%–4.75% from 4.25%–4.50%. There will be no updated Summary of Economic Projections accompanying the meeting, leaving investors to sift through the policy statement and Chair Powell's post-meeting press conference for any potential clues on the path of future policy.Chart: 2 Year Treasury Yield vs Fed Fund Target Rate Tracking #1-05357454Questions? Email us at info@FordFG.com.Web: FordFG.comMusic: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. The Advisors of Ford Financial Group are a Registered Representatives with, and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Perennial Investment Advisors and Ford Financial Group are separate entities from LPL Financial. This material is for general info only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical an...

Despite the confluence of multiple shocks, growth across all five African regions was positive in 2022—and the outlook for 2023–24 is projected to be stable.

John Roberts is a 36-year veteran of the Federal Reserve Board and mostly recently was the Deputy Associate Director in the Division of Research and Statistics, overseeing the board's domestic macroeconomic modeling efforts. From 2017-2019, John also served as a special advisor to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, where his responsibilities includes preparation of speeches, providing advice on monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and regulatory attending FOMC meetings. John joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, macroeconomic modeling at the institution, his work on the zero lower bound, and current Fed policy. Specifically, David and John also discuss the art of interpreting the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the future of modeling for policymakers at the Fed, the state of FAIT at the central bank, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   John's blog John's paper archive   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World* by Michael Kiley and John Roberts   *Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment* by Ben Bernanke, Michael Kiley, and John Roberts   *Unconventional Monetary Policy According to HANK* by Eric Sims, Jing Cynthia Wu, & Ji Zhang

Let's talk about the World Bank's economic projections for 2023.... --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/support

@nigeriasbest and @phoenix_agenda were joined by @Chxta They discussed their political and economic projections for 2023.

Some impactful trends of 2022 may not be as prominent next year. For example, this year's dramatic interest rate increases are expected to plateau and 2022's high levels of inflation will likely to decrease in 2023. That being said, many of the major forces driving the multifamily market will continue. The critically low supply of housing may not have gotten as much attention in light of the declining rent and single family home prices this year, but housing demand will remain high until single family and apartment construction dramatically increases, which will not happen overnight or next year, for that matter. Sources discussed in this episode: Apartment List: “2022 Rental Market Recap Report – 9 Key Trends” - https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/2022-rental-market-recap-report-9-key-trends St. Louis FRED: “Household Estimates” (Click “Edit Graph” and change Units to “Percent Change from Year Ago” to get a view of changing household formation) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHHM156N#0 Federal Reserve Bank of the United States: “Summary of Economic Projections, December 14, 2022” (page 4 contains dot plot of interest rate projections) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty: “How Laws and Regulation Add to Housing Prices in Wisconsin” - https://will-law.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Housing-FINAL-2.pdf Berkadia: “Rent Control 2022 Elections Update” - https://base.berkadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Berkadia-Rent-Control-2022-Elections-Update.pdf The Atlantic: “The Obvious Answer to Homelessness” - https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/01/homelessness-affordable-housing-crisis-democrats-causes/672224/ The Manhattan Institute: “How to Fight Housing Price Inflation Policy Menus for Stopping Government-Induced Housing Woes from Spreading Beyond the Coasts” - https://www.manhattan-institute.org/how-to-fight-housing-price-inflation For the latest multifamily news from across the internet, visit the Gray Report website: https://www.grayreport.com/ Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter/ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest.

The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. The Fed now sees growth slower, unemployment rising faster, and inflation running slightly higher through the remainder of 2023 than their projections in September. This forces the Fed to make a choice, do they focus on supporting the weakening economic outlook, or continue to prioritize the fight against higher but slowly falling inflation? These choices can lead to different outcomes for the economy and therefore investing. A copy of the Federal Reserve Projections for September can be found by going to www.federalreserve.gov and clicking on the Monetary Policy tab and hitting the link for the projections materials 

Welcome back to In Good Companies! This season, we're exploring the forces shaping your business, inside and out—and to kick off Season Two, we've got a double whammy: inflation and interest rates.During COVID, the Federal Reserve cut its target range for the Federal Funds Rate to 0.00% to 0.25%. But now, in 2022, inflation has hit a 40-year high and interest rates are climbing again. In six short months, the Federal Funds Rate target range has risen steeply, from a range of 0% to 0.25%  to a range of 3.00% to 3.25%. High interest rates can have a substantial effect on businesses and consumers alike. So, how high will rates climb? And how long will they stay elevated?  One of the people best positioned to answer those questions is Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel: she's spent her career translating the economy to a broad audience. Together, we'll examine the relationship between interest and inflation, decode the Fed's monetary policy and explore why this inflation might be particularly stubborn.As always, we'll dig into what this means for you and your business: what indicators to pay attention to, how to adapt to a high-interest environment and why you should be especially cautious when inflation recedes.So join us! We've got your best interest at heart.Highlights: Why our economic situation is deceptive (3:40) Federal Funds Rate deep dive (6:20) The relationship between inflation and interest rates (8:22) Rate hikes in 2022 (9:09) How the Fed uses interest rates as a communication tool (10:51) What will drive the Fed's decision-making (12:29) The lag of monetary policy (14:09) What happens if inflation doesn't subside (16:13) The effects of a high-interest environment on small business (19:05) How inflation and interest affect consumer behavior (21:32) Why caution and adaptability will be key (22:50) Markets are cyclical (25:01) Links: Cadence Bank Website Cadence Bank Twitter Cadence Bank LinkedIn Dr. Lindsey Piegza LinkedIn Stifel Institutional Website Stifel Financial LinkedIn Federal Reserve –Summary of Economic Projections, September 2022 Gallup – Inflation Causing Hardship for Consumers Feedback:If you have questions about the show or topics you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producers, sheena.cochran@cadencebank.com or danielle.kernell@cadencebank.com.

This week Brian discusses how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published Summary of Economic Projections.Chart: Aggressive Hikes Taming InflationFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05328334

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics.  The Fed now sees growth slower, unemployment rising faster, and inflation running slightly higher through the remainder of 2022 and throughout 2023. This forces the Fed to make a choice, do they focus on supporting the weakening economic outlook, or prioritize the fight against inflation that stands at levels last seen nearly 40 years ago? A copy of the Federal Reserve Projections for September can be found by going to www.federalreserve.gov and clicking on the Monetary Policy tab and hitting the link for the projections materials. 

On today's episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners. Making the statement that "macro is back with a vengeance", Julian joins the show for a wide ranging discussion on inflation, misconceptions in the yield curve inversion, the factors driving an equity bear market and the U.S Dollar's structural decline. Expecting a structural rise in yields, Julian takes us back 800 years quoting a research piece by the BoE that identified all major trend reversals in bond bull markets being caused by either a pandemic or war. Just how will this new regime shift Julian expects effect his actionable trade idea? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: So, Recession?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/recession#details  Summary of Economic Projections: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf  Lagarde plays down recession risks, says ECB is ready to 'move faster' on rates if needed. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/ecb-lagarde-plays-down-recession-risks-at-sintra-forum.html The current bond bull market is the longest in more than 500 years https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-paper-on-bond-bull-markets-through-the-years-2017-10?op=1&r=US&IR=T Bretton Woods III: https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Top Stories Of The Week (06:53) Can the Fed pivot? (13:59) Feature Interview With Julian Brigden (23:59) The Labor Market (29:03) Will the Fed turn dovish? (34:44) The U.S. Dollar vs Equities (39:24) Julian's Actionable Trade Idea (46:01) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (51:29) The Role of the US Dollar -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets. I would highly recommend having a copy of the Federal Reserve Projections in front of you to be able to follow along with this episode of the podcast. You can find the projections at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy by clicking on the link projection materials 

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Armando Cavanha, Energy Thought Leader, Podcast Host, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil Contact on Twitter @cavanhaIrina Slav , International Author for Oil Price, Substack and others, Writing about Energy, Mining, and Geopolitical Issues. Bulgaria Contact on Twitter @SlavEnergyDavid Blackmon, Principal at DB Energy Advisors, Energy Author, Contributing Author for Forbes, and Podcast Host. Contact on Twitter @EnergyAbsurdity

The minutes of the last Fed meeting point to more rate hikes that go further than the market anticipates. Steve Liesman breaks the news. Bob Pisani & Rick Santelli have immediate market reaction and two experts offer instant analysis of what the details could mean for your money. Plus, the CBO Director shares the outlook for inflation and what rising rates mean for the national debt. And, Wall Street is divided over Tesla. Where is the stock headed next? The bull and bear cases on Power Lunch.

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets. I would highly recommend having a copy of the Federal Reserve Projections in front of you to be able to follow along with this episode of the podcast. You can find the projections at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy by clicking on the link projection materials. 

On February 25, the city got an update of just how much money the city budget is projected to have for the next fiscal year and annually through 2026. General Fund revenues are on course to exceed September projections by modest amounts due in part to favorably adjusted income tax revenue estimates. Projections show that the city's fiscal recovery will benefit from employment rates of blue collar workers more than any other industry group in the city, with higher educational attainment service industries growing at the slowest rate. Research Associate Dr. Esmat Ishag-Osman talks more about it on this episode of Facts Matter.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week. Summary of Economic Projections will be released 2:00pm ET on March 16. Social

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week. Summary of Economic Projections will be released 2:00pm ET on March 16. Social

In this episode of Portfolio Intelligence, Co-Chief Investment Strategists Emily R. Roland, CIMA, and Matthew D. Miskin, CFA, discuss their 2022 economic projections and investment outlook. The strategists also share what factors they're currently watching, their expectations from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and their concerns for the U.S. and global economy in 2022. Finally, the strategists share their views on the positioning of fixed income and equity investments in 2022.

 I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets. I would highly recommend having a copy of the Federal Reserve Projections in front of you to be able to follow along with this episode of the podcast. You can find the projections at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy by clicking on the link projection materials. 

The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets.

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America and a former hedge fund economist. He rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the fate of the Phillips Curve, the inflation outlook, the Fed's new framework, and his vision for a better monetary policy future. David and Skanda also discuss the Fed's flawed assessment of maximum employment, how to modify the central bank's Summary of Economic Projections, and the significance of capacity constraints vs labor utilization.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Skanda's Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda's Employ America archive: https://employamerica.org/author/skandaamarnath/ Skanda's Medium profile: https://medium.com/@skanda_97974   Related Links:   *Beyond the Phillips Curve: A Dynamic Approach to Communicating Assessments of 'Maximum Employment'* by Skanda Amarnath and Alex Williams https://employamerica.medium.com/beyond-the-phillips-curve-a-dynamic-approach-to-communicating-assessments-of-maximum-employment-c3eff48b2fcf   David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

 In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets. I would highly recommend having a copy of the Federal Reserve Projections in front of you to be able to follow along with this episode of the podcast. You can find  the projections at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy by clicking on the link projection materials

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the June FOMC which featured a more hawkish outlook from the Summary of Economic Projections, an acknowledgement that the Fed might be underestimating the likely path of inflation, and a technical adjustment to the Fed's administered rates. They conclude with a brief discussion on what tapering will likely mean for credit spreads later this year.

Next week, the Federal Reserve holds its fourth FOMC meeting of the year.  After the meeting, they will release a statement, very likely communicating no change in policy.  Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will likely emphasize the same message in his post-meeting press conference.  However, for investors, the most important information will be delivered in numbers rather than words, as the Fed discloses the median forecasts of FOMC members in their June Summary of Economic Projections.

The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets. I would highly recommend having a copy of the Federal Reserve Projections in front of you to be able to follow along with this episode of the podcast. You can find  the projections at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy by clicking on the link projection materials.

In the prepared statement and in the press conference, the Committee assessed that the U.S. economy likely slipped into a ‘soft-patch' over the final seven weeks of the year 2020 and likely over the first four weeks or so of the year 2021. So, while the Committee downgraded the very near-term assessment of the economy, the Committee strengthened its medium-term outlook. Net-net, at the upcoming March Meeting's SEP projections, the Committee likely may strengthen its real GDP growth estimate for years 2021 and 2022, we believe. Can the FOMC catch up to our models forecasts of +5.00% YoY growth in 2021 and +4.00% YoY growth in 2022?  Please, stay tuned! In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the 4th Quarter GDP report, parses the various nuances and subtleties of the FOMC's economic outlook and monetary policy stance, as well as tells listeners what it means for his core strategic investment stance for a 2s-30s Treasury yield curve steepener. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets. I would highly recommend having a copy of the Federal Reserve Projections in front of you to be able to follow along with this episode of the podcast. You can find  the projections at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy by clicking on the link projection materials

The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve's recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean for markets. I would highly recommend having a copy of the Federal Reserve Projections in front of you to be able to follow along with this episode of the podcast. You can find  the projections at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy by clicking on the link projection materials.

Sharon Hudson-Dean is a career American diplomat currently serving as U.S. Consul General in Sydney, Australia. Ms. Hudson-Dean was the Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Diplomacy and Nordic/Baltic Affairs in the European and Eurasian Affairs Bureau at the Department of State from 2017-18. Prior to that, she served as Chargé d'Affaires, a.i. and Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Riga, Latvia for three years. She has also represented the United States in Georgia, Russia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Nepal, and Australia. We delve into Australia and The United States special bilateral relationship. We discuss the historic ties between both nations and how they translate in everyday life. Reflecting both on the past and ongoing allyship, we also analyse what it may look like in the future, particularly in relations to the effects of COVID-19. Why is The United States considered as Australia's greatest ally? What common values do they share? What is the role of a Consul General? Why has the United States been more affected by COVID-19 than Australia? What does this mean for the US's role as an economic powerhouse? What is the future of their relationship? Virtual FREE (but essential to secure a spot) event: 'Diplomacy Today with CG Michael Kleine': https://www.theyoungdiplomats.com/upcoming-events If you have any podcast suggestions or feedback head to this link: https://www.theyoungdiplomats.com/suggestions

Understanding what the economy is doing can improve your freelancing business decisions. In this episode, we're discussing both large and small scale economic issues in the country; diving into some US recession history, what the stock market is telling us, and how we aim to handle our personal economy and job opportunities amidst all of it. This episode is now available on Youtube! Be sure to check it out at https://youtu.be/lKUy0nT1aYw --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/media1099/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/media1099/support

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. In this episode, I am going to discuss the Federal Reserve recently updated economic projections on GDP, Unemployment, PCE, and the Fed Funds rate and what it could mean.

Tune in to find out the state of the housing market, projections on the economy from the Federal Reserve and the White House, what drove the stock market today, positive news on the pandemic and tip #26 on how to stay sane during unemployment!

Quick overview of Brazilian politics this week: what is happening and how that affects your business. This product is developed by PATRI Public Affairs - www.patri.com.br