Podcasts about economic projections

Following meetings across Europe and Asia, our Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy Research, Serena Tang, discusses two of the main themes on investors' minds: uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy and increasing caution toward AI despite its long-term potential.Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy Research at Morgan Stanley.And today, I'm bringing you a debrief from my investor meetings across Europe and Asia, and the key debates around AI and the Fed.It's Thursday, July 2nd at 10am in New York.The last two weeks, I have been traveling in Europe and Asia to meet with investors to discuss Morgan Stanley's latest views. Two themes dominated nearly every room I walked into.The first is the Federal Reserve and monetary policy path in the U.S. Many investors had interpreted Chair Kevin Warsh's June FOMC meeting, his first at the helm, as unambiguously hawkish. What market investors at my meetings pointed out is that [the] Fed's Summary of Economic Projections – commonly shortened to SEP, which details policymakers' forecasts for macro metrics like GDP growth, inflation, and the federal funds rate – added a hike in 2026 and pushed out rate cuts, implying more restrictive policy.Now, Morgan Stanley's economists think that hikes implied by SEP at the June FOMC meeting should be interpreted with caution. The projections appeared conditioned on elevated near-term inflation and may not capture the disinflation from a straight reopening. We actually anticipate a lower path for core inflation given a combination of a reversal in travel-related inflation and tariff payback, which lead to our call that the Fed remains on hold through 2026.The second recurring theme in meetings with investors across regions is, unsurprisingly, AI. While in every single meeting investors believe firmly in the secular story of ongoing AI CapEx cycle, there was some unease – especially since AI is now also becoming an inflation story on the macro side and a funding story on the micro side.Chipflation is a new word in town, with markets still debating whether it can be one of the things that derail the AI CapEx cycle. In our economists' and sector analysts' views, it's more nuanced. While memory price is up sixfold over the past year, we think chipflation is more likely to reprice and ration AI infrastructure than derail the cycle. AI demand is scaling across three layers at once, more memory per chip, more chips per system, and more systems per cluster, while hyperscalers remain first in the allocation queue. Now, the key risk is CapEx efficiency. Memory is becoming a larger share of the AI system cost, but the cycle, we think, remains intact.As for AI funding needs, the debate with investors has been how much more can it accelerate? It's worth noting that the majority of corporate bond issuance quarter-to-date has been related to funding construction of data centers.Hyperscale's have been broadening their investor base through non-dollar issuances. They have collectively issued around $25 billion of debt in other currencies like euro, Swiss franc, and the [Japanese yen] in May.Our credit strategy colleagues forecast nearly another $600 billion of AI-related global issuance in 2026; meaning for U.S. IG corporate bonds alone, we expect one trillion of net issuance, a reason for our view that the asset class can underperform this year. With our equity colleagues estimating hyperscaler cash CapEx to surpass $1 trillion in 2027, we expect issuance to accelerate.Bringing it all together, investors globally are all grappling with the same uncertainties around the Fed and AI CapEx, which will likely continue to be key debates to come. But Morgan Stanley's base case view of lower inflation driving the Fed to stay on hold and a strong AI CapEx cycle that remains intact means we recommend investors should still stay constructive on risk assets.Thanks for listening. Let us know what you think by leaving a review. And if you enjoyed the podcast, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility. It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London. Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened. We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility. I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction. First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lower estimates are ultimately correct. Supporting our case, at least in our view, is that energy prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks since some of these Fed forecasts were set, as markets have moved to believe not only would existing oil production resume in the Persian Gulf, but Iran could increase exports materially under its new agreement with the United States. That would greatly reduce a source of underlying inflationary pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. With inflation set to come in lower than feared, we think the Fed's most natural option will be to remain on hold this year rather than raise rates. But if the Fed's not doing anything, how exactly is that going to drive volatility? Our answer to that question lies in another thing that it's not going to be doing – providing as much information about where it thinks monetary policy is going next. Indeed, since the financial crisis, the Fed often went out of its way to give so-called forward guidance and significant detail about when and how they may change policy in the future. Proponents saw this as a way to avoid surprises and smooth the transmission of this policy, but critics saw it as limiting and potentially giving markets a false sense of certainty. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is one of these critics and has promised to give a lot less forward guidance. That lack of handholding by the Fed about what they might do next is a big change. Coupled with the potential for a smaller Fed balance sheet and big questions around the path of inflation and the impact of AI and productivity, every data point now has more potential to shift the market's thinking. My strategy colleagues think that this will lead to higher volatility in two-year interest rates, as well as more volatility in currencies. I'd also note that here in the UK, this paradox is not nearly as puzzling. Here, the Bank of England's target rate has been the same level since mid-December. But that hasn't stopped the UK two-year bond yield from trading in an over 100 basis point range. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

This week, we discuss recent housing market releases and the Federal Open Market Committee's latest decision under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. Housing starts fell to their lowest level since April 2020, at the onset of the Covid 19 pandemic. Much of the decline was driven by multifamily construction, a notoriously volatile component of the data. Even so, the report is consistent with broader evidence that the housing market continues to lose momentum. Mr. Warsh also held his first press conference as Federal Reserve chair. Among the more visible changes were a shorter policy statement, the decision to withhold his own projection from the Summary of Economic Projections, and a refusal to provide forward guidance. Beneath these procedural changes lies a potentially more significant shift in leadership style. Mr. Warsh has emphasized that policy decisions will emerge from what he describes as a "good family fight" while reaffirming the central bank's commitment to achieving its inflation target. Although a less transparent approach may ultimately lead to better policy outcomes, the immediate effect is to introduce an additional layer of uncertainty into an economy that already faces no shortage of it.

AP News reports that former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh will be in the spotlight as the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged. A hold would keep the prime rate and short-term benchmarks like SOFR broadly stable, anchoring costs on variable-rate lines, equipment loans, and many SBA loans. Treasury yields and swap markets may still move on guidance about inflation, employment, and balance sheet runoff, which will flow through to venture debt pricing and valuation discount rates. The June meeting typically includes the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot, providing clues on the policy path. Founders should review covenant headroom, consider hedging floating-rate exposure, tune cash ladders in Treasury bills, and negotiate rate floors and prepayment options while conditions remain steady.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US stock closed lower after the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged and signaled the possibility of rate hikes this year. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%, while the Dow lost 507 points from its record high. The Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed's June meeting showed that half of the FOMC members projected one rate hike or more this year, as underlying inflation gauges pointed to rising prices and employment data remained robust despite economic shocks stemming from the war in Iran. Chairman Warsh refrained from posting a dot in the projections, reflecting his intention to change the Fed's monetary framework.Magnificent Seven stocks led the losses amid the selloff in Treasuries, with Meta down 4.2%, Microsoft losing 3.6%, Alphabet shedding 2.4%, and Amazon dropping 3.1%. Chipmakers extended their rally, with Micron up 2.2%, Marvell gaining 3.9%, and Intel advancing 3.5%.SPI down 64 - Gold falls - Oil rises - Yields rise.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the signals investors will be seeking from the new Fed Chair leading his first monetary policy meeting and possible implications for markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, markets are watching the Fed's next move. Are rate cuts delayed or could hikes possibly be back on the table? It's Tuesday, June 16th at 8:30am in New York. So, Mike, the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow is likely more about reading the signal rather than announcing a rate change. Markets will focus on inflation forecasts, the unemployment rate, and the growth outlook. But, of course, this will also be the first meeting after Powell ended his term as Fed chair in May. All eyes will be on Warsh. So, what are your thoughts before the press conference? Michael Gapen: A lot of thoughts, actually, before the press conference. I do think it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be changing its easing bias in favor of more neutral language. Seems clear the committee wants to do that, probably wanted to do that at the last meeting. And it does fit, I think, Warsh's preference for less communication, less guidance from the Fed. So, I do think that's largely a foregone conclusion, although obviously we need to see whether that happens and whether there are dissents. I think, as you noted, the forecasts will be important, but I think what's really important from my perspective – more than the modal outlook or the baseline that participants have – is their assessment of the balance of risks around the dual mandate. And I say that because obviously a year ago, the Fed eased policy when it felt that there were downside risks to the labor market that outweighed upside risk to inflation. This year, that seems to have flipped, where the labor market appears to have stabilized, labor demand has picked up a little bit, and it is inflation that looks persistent. So, if the Fed cut last year on downside risk to the labor market, I think the concern for markets is – maybe they hike in 2027 or later this year based on a changing balance of risks in the direction of firmer inflation. So, for me, that's really kind of key. In addition to what they're saying about growth inflation in the labor market, what is their assessment of the distribution of risks around that modal forecast? Matthew Hornbach: There's definitely going to be a lot of investor interest in the press conference itself. What exactly may result from the opening statement. Presumably, Chair Warsh will give an opening statement. How are you thinking about the back and forth between Warsh and the reporters that are asking questions? Are there certain questions that you would anticipate him getting asked, and how do you think he might respond? Michael Gapen: Well, I think certainly that if we are correct, and I think markets are correct, that they do change forward guidance in the statement to more neutral bias, that certainly opens up the possibility that the Fed will be hiking. So, the obvious first question is – is this the first step in the direction of hiking? What would get you to raise rates? Should investors be thinking about that? Is that the course of travel here? Now Warsh may not want to answer that if he, kind of, is consistent in the view of saying the Fed shouldn't give a lot of forward guidance. So maybe get some popcorn, Matt. It could be a situation where he gets asked questions about the future path of monetary policy, and maybe he decides, ‘I don't want to take that up right now. The data will tell us, and we'll do what's necessary.' And second, I think as you're noting and getting to about the structure of the press conference and what he might say is; past Federal Reserve chairs, let's say from Bernanke on, have found the press conference – the press conference statement, the questions, the format, the venue – as a way to control the narrative. And I think what will be interesting is to see whether Warsh has the same design. The risk, of course, is perhaps that he doesn't and pulls back the amount of communication guidance that he wants to give. And then we'll see what fills that vacuum. What narrative fills that vacuum? And is he okay with that? So, it may be that there's a new sheriff in town, and he chooses that there's some questions I'll answer, others I won't. And so, I do think that interaction with the press corps will be interesting. Hard to know exactly where it's going to come down until we see it in real time. Matthew Hornbach: During Chair Warsh's testimony to Congress, he alluded to the idea that potentially the Fed may not do a press conference at every meeting going forward. How are you thinking about that in the context of this idea that if you leave a void, somebody else may fill it? Michael Gapen: Obviously, the Fed used to not have press conferences at all, and then they moved to having them quarterly or four times a year. And they found that that was a little suboptimal because it became harder to make decisions and changes in the off-press conference meetings [be]cause they didn't have a venue to explain what they were doing and what they were thinking. So, they migrated to eight meetings. So, I think it's kind of twofold. Yes, it would mean that they speak less and therefore maybe their word doesn't carry as much weight. Or there's longer gaps for other narratives to come in. Like, do we lose forward guidance from the Fed, and is that replaced by forward guidance from the Treasury, for example? How do markets weigh those signals? And but then also I would say would that ultimately box in the Fed to only make decisions on quarterly meetings rather than eight times a year? Would the chair, for example… Let's assume that at some point in the future, the Fed decides it does want to raise interest rates. Historically, the Fed does not surprise on rate hikes. It's perfectly willing to surprise on rate cuts, when it comes to that. But if there is a world where the Fed does decide, ‘Hey, we do need to raise rates, but we don't have a press conference to explain our view.' Would they take the decision at that meeting or would they wait? So, does it reduce their opportunity set? Matthew Hornbach: I think this issue would certainly be an interesting one for investors to think about, which is why I'm bringing it up with you. Because to the extent that the plan going forward is to hold a press conference only once a quarter, as you alluded to – investors may interpret that as the Fed not being willing to raise rates at every single meeting going forward, which would certainly affect the pricing in the very short end of the interest rate market. But more broadly, on communication strategy, do you think that that would be something that Chair Warsh would take upon himself? Or do you think it would be more likely for him to organize a committee to discuss communications? Michael Gapen: I think the right thing to do… Again, our job is to say what we think he will do – not what he should do. But I'm going to answer this one in the question of what I think he should do. I do think he should create, say, a subcommittee on communication and reevaluate what the Fed does. [Be]ause as chair, he has almost unilateral control over communications. But obviously you work within a committee, the committee operates with consensus. So, I do think it would make sense to, kind of, work through a committee and try and get as much consensus as you can. And, here, what I would hope where they, kind of, ultimately land is – Warsh has been critical in the past of the Fed's forecast, the forecast being incorrect, providing maybe incorrect forward guidance. And I would argue that it's not really the sole job of the SEPs – the Summary of Economic Projections – to provide a forecast. But what you get out of them is more than just a forecast. You get a hint of the committee's reaction function. That if data are above or below certain thresholds on growth, inflation, and unemplyment, then expect our policy path to look different. So, is there a way that he could review the communication strategy, tamp down the elements that are, say, a pure forecast, but keep the items that communicate to the market what a reaction function is? That's where I think a review committee could be useful in reforming or revamping what they do. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. In terms of the things that are really the purview of the committee, can you walk us through what those are in the context of Chair Warsh coming in having to ultimately make decisions on monetary policy – both interest rate policy as well as balance sheet policy? What are the purview of the committee itself? Michael Gapen: Yeah. The two main tools of monetary policy, in this case interest rate policy and balance sheet policy, is both of those are under the purview of the Federal Open Market Committee. So, to change interest rates, to reduce the size of the balance sheet, to change the rollover rate, to buy assets, to sell assets – all of that is an FOMC decision. There are subcomponents of that world where the board can make certain decisions. Now, the Fed views communication broadly as a tool, but in this case, communication is not an FOMC decision. The evolution of the communication strategy grew kind of organically out of '08, '09. Chairman Bernanke kind of started that process. It continued through, through Yellen. And that's been more of what I'll call a consensus operation, but there's no formal vote. So, the chair has a lot of control over how the Fed communicates, how often it communicates. But the policy decisions are from the FOMC. Matthew Hornbach: I'm often asked about this idea that less communication may end up affecting the bond market in certain ways. And typically, the concern amongst investors is that with less communication from the Fed – whether it be the chair or whether it be from the committee as a whole through the Summary of Economic Projections and its interest rate dot plot – there's concern amongst investors that removing that type of guidance would raise bond yields, essentially through the term premium component of the term structure. And the way that we think about it is probably in this environment where interest rates have already been inching higher, and investors are concerned about the hiking cycle that may eventuate, it probably would raise term premia initially. But from a more medium-term perspective, the way I think about it is that, you know, term premia can be positive, it can also be negative. And if we have less forward guidance, I would generally expect that term premium component to be more volatile than it has been in the past. Not necessarily just in the upward direction. But it could also be in the downward direction if the macro environment ends up changing in some way. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I could see in the current context, the inflation surprises have been to the upside, so less communication may mean more term premium. But we went through almost a decade after '08, '09, where most of those surprises were to the downside. So, you can imagine that it could be a symmetric story rather than an asymmetric one. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. Well, thanks Mike. That's very interesting, and thanks for taking the time to talk ahead of this upcoming FOMC meeting. I'm looking forward to our next discussion around the following FOMC meeting. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Central banks will be in focus this week, with the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision the highlight on Thursday morning (NZ time). As well as being Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Chair, we'll also get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed. Monetary policy decisions are also due in Australia, Japan and the UK.

As markets navigate energy supply disruptions and mixed economic data, Matt and Emily join the podcast to provide a timely, broad market update. They share their perspectives on how oil supply shocks are affecting markets, how energy dynamics are influencing inflation and growth expectations, and where they see potential opportunities across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. 1 What's driving the markets at this moment? Matt: We're experiencing a historic oil supply shock. The Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for about 20% of the global oil supply—has been shut off. We're seeing prices ratchet higher and energy supplies rationed globally. This has created an inflation shock across global markets, with hawkish comments from central banks globally leaning toward a higher-inflation environment. That caused bond yields to rise and hurt equities. While supply disruption remains, energy remains the biggest risk and a driver of volatility. 2 How do energy prices affect the broader economic outlook? Emily: Central banks globally have discussed tighter policy without downgrading growth expectations. The recent U.S. Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections showed slightly higher GDP forecasts and no increase in unemployment rate estimates. We think higher inflation does punish growth and, eventually, expect a slower-growth story. Currently, the U.S. economy is holding up, but cracks are forming in the labor market. We think, ultimately, there's a lid on inflation due to weakening demand. 3 Where do you see opportunities in this environment? Matt: One of the sectors we like is non-U.S. industrials, supported by defense spending. If the dollar strengthens further, we prefer U.S. equities—particularly mid-cap and mid-cap value, which are relatively cheap and higher quality. Emily: We also like infrastructure, long short equity strategies, and multi alternative approaches. Infrastructure offers defensive characteristics and benefits from AI driven power demand.

This week, we go over the Fed's economic projections, tell you why you shouldn't worry about stagflation, and let you know the best week to list your home for sale. All episodes filmed and recorded as part of Brown Harris Stevens' Mastery of Real Estate (MoRE) Network. Subscribe to Crossing the Line https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crossing-the-line/id1715709313 Host: Greg Heym https://www.bhsusa.com/about-gregory-heym Market Report Data https://www.bhsusa.com/market-reports Sponsors: Scott Nadler | @loan.daddy CrossCountry Mortgage https://crosscountrymortgage.com/brooklyn-ny-5601/scott-nadler/ Shahriar Sedgh Sedgh & Zuckerman PLLC: shar@sznylaw.com The Everset https://theeverset.com/ Submit your "Crossing the Line" questions: CTL@bhsusa.com Brown Harris Stevens is one of the largest privately owned real estate brokerages in the country, with more than 40 offices across four states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Florida. https://bhsusa.com/

This week, we discuss a pivotal FOMC day, the Fed's new liquidity injections, shifting market leadership, and why inflation, credit, and social pressures are all converging into a “run-it-hot” regime. We also weigh the implications for Main Street, metals, Bitcoin, and 2026 positioning. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JCTPNIa3J3RutQTuPU37_vfPqIUpcKZ3/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:02) FOMC Takeaways (07:29) Small Cap Rotation Underway? (09:45) Psychology Of Inflation (11:39) The Fed's Economic Projections (14:50) Grayscale Ad (15:28) China's Trade Performance (17:45) Mag7 Ceiling Reached? (18:22) Yields Diverging & Fiscal Stimulus (22:12) CPI Volatility, K-Economy & Messy Politics (27:36) Grayscale Ad (28:24) “Run It Hot” Vs The Dollar (30:47) Short Mag7, Long Main Street? (33:08) Credit Markets & Correlations (36:08) Are We Getting A Santa Rally? (40:27) Consequences of Wealth Disparity (46:58) We're In The Financial Repression Endgame (50:24) Crypto's Disappointment (54:03) Hope For The The Youth (57:49) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Post-FOMC Meeting Market Reaction and Economic Outlook - December 10, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group in Newport Beach discusses the market's reactions to the Federal Reserve's recent actions. On December 10th, 2023, the Federal Reserve concluded its FOMC meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points and adding to its balance sheet, which boosted both the stock and bond markets. The Dow closed up 497 points, with the S&P and Nasdaq also showing gains. Szytel explains the significance of the steepening yield curve, which signals positive economic growth, and reviews the Federal Reserve's future interest rate expectations, unemployment, inflation, and GDP projections. The episode also addresses an op-ed by Muhammad Al Arian regarding the restructuring of The Fed. Overall, the episode provides an optimistic outlook on short-term risk assets and the economy. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights 00:48 Market Reactions and Performance 01:25 Understanding Yield Curves 03:28 Economic Projections and Fed Actions 04:30 Op-Ed Discussion and Final Thoughts 05:17 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Send us a textThe day after the FOMC's first rate cut of 2025, we sat down with Matt Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley, to unpack what the decision really meant, and what the markets maybe got wrong on first read. Matt talks about the shifting dissenters, how updates to the Summary of Economic Projections present a more complicated picture for the future path of rate cuts, and why Powell's tone at the presser felt at odds with the statement itself.We also dig into the Fed's often-misunderstood, rarely referenced “third mandate” (moderate long-term rates), the limits of yield curve “engineering,” and the crucial point that U.S. mortgage rates don't simply follow 30-year Treasury yields. We dive into Matt's favored yield-curve steepener, going into the details of preferred expressions optimized for minimal cost of carry. Beyond rates, he explains why he expects further USD depreciation and gives us a rates-based framework to understand what sometimes feels like puzzling strength in the equities market. This episode is also our “Fixed Income Strategy 101” primer, where we cover: what macro/fixed-income strategy teams actually do, how they partner with sales & trading and clients, the difference between research/strategy/desk strategy, the top skills hiring managers look for (hint: learn Python), and common exit paths. Matthew Hornbach is a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, Global Head of Macro Strategy, and one of nine members of the Global Investment Committee for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. With support from his team, Matthew received the most individual or firm votes in the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Institutional Investor Global Fixed-Income Research poll across all analysts across all Economics & Strategy categories.Matthew began his career at Morgan Stanley in June 2000. He joined as a Japanese Government Bond (JGB) trader in Tokyo, then became a yen interest rate strategist. Matthew moved to New York in 2004 to make markets in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). He returned to Tokyo in 2006 to develop the US Agency MBS Pass-throughs business in Asia. In 2012, Matthew returned to New York as Head of U.S. Rates Strategy and became the Global Head of Rates Strategy shortly thereafter. Just prior to his 20th year at Morgan Stanley, he became Global Head of Macro Strategy. He oversees teams of developed and emerging market rates and FX strategists in New York, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong.Matthew holds a BA degree in economics from Vassar College and a Certificate of ManaFor a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HERE For 20% off Deleteme, use the code TWSS or click the link HERE! Sign up for our LIVE Virtual Bootcamps! 2-Day Financial Modeling Bootcamp Master the technical Excel and accounting skills essential for investment banking, private equity, and fundamental investing. (Learn more HERE) Global Markets & Investing PlaybookA one-day crash course on the financial ecosystem, perfect for anyone seeking a big-picture understanding of how global markets and Wall Street fit together. Our content is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. (Learn more HERE)

Kevin Green says technically the markets are still doing a "phenomenal job" hitting higher highs but the FOMC decision - especially its Summary of Economic Projections - will be key for future performance. KG says the addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed governors could add another dissenting voice to the central bank which will add another layer to Chairman Jerome Powell's messaging to the public. Later, KG addresses reports that China's internet regulator has ordered companies to stop purchases of Nvidia (NVDA) chips.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Today's session is all about the Fed. Kevin Hincks catches investors up to speed on the near-certain 25bps interest rate cut the FOMC is expected to announce in the afternoon. However, Kevin makes the case that the Fed's economic projections and future rate cuts will be more critical for investors. He later touches on the rise in weekly mortgage applications.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The U.S. Senate confirmed Stephen Miran's appointment to the Federal Reserve, filling the hole left by Adriana Kugler. Kevin Green and Diane King Hall discuss the Fed's newest member as investors await tomorrow's rate announcement. With a 25bps cut largely priced in, KG says Fed Chair Jerome Powell's commentary might be second in importance to investors, adding the Summary of Economic Projections could provide a better roadmap. For Tuesday's session, KG sees $6645 to the upside and $6600 to downside for a trading range to watch. Lastly, he chimes in on Oracle (ORCL) as the tech company is tied to a possible TikTok deal.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

David Doyle says a 25bps is largely baked in and wouldn't move the needle. Instead, says the Dot Plot (or Summary of Economic Projections) would be viewed as a more significant market-moving item. He says a 50bps rate cut is certainly possible with Trump appointee Stephen Miran joining the Fed for the September meeting. David adds that it could be "tricky" to expect the Dot Plot to move to a dovish direction in 2025, but says 2026 could be set up for more rate cuts.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Mike Switzer interviews Joey Von Nessen, chief economist at the Darla Moore School of Business at USC in Columbia, SC.

We share the key macroeconomic signals and policy decisions affecting commercial real estate as we move into the second half of 2025. From declining retail sales and builder sentiment to insights from the latest FOMC meeting, we explore how economic headwinds are influencing CRE strategy, pricing gaps, and transaction volume. Tune in for analysis on capital access, operational priorities, the evolving definition of real assets, and takeaways from the recent CREFC Annual Conference. Key Moments:01:16 Economic indicators: Retail sales05:02 Economic indicators: Housing data10:26 FOMC meeting highlights14:26 Summary of Economic Projections15:15 Major themes: Higher for longer16:20 Major themes: Price vs. value17:23 Major themes: Operations and cash flow18:38 Major themes: Lumpy transactions20:59 Major themes: Real asset merge24:23 CREFC Annual Conference Insights31:12 Upcoming Episodes and Data Releases Resources Mentioned:Advance retail sales: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html NAHB Housing Market Index: https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Housing-Economics/Indices/Housing-Market-Index FOMC Summary of Economic Projections: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250618.htm CREFC Annual Conference 2025 – Key takeaways: https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/crefc-annual-conference-2025-key-takeaways/ Email us - altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Title: Watch the Dots: Previewing June's FOMC DecisionDescription: Yelena Shulyatyeva says today's focus from the FOMC meeting will be "the dots" or the latest Summary of Economic Projections, which will indicate the central bank's forward-looking rate cut assumptions. Yelena adds that despite downward surprises in the last 4 inflation readings, she believes inflation will come via tariff policy as it slowly trickles into the economy. She discusses the state of the labor market as it relates to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and stable inflation.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Inflation and interest rates and elections OH MY!  Hear from one of the most savvy financial advisors in the US, David Pickler.  In today's episode he talks about the economic juggling act in motion, the exponential change that has led us to the fourth industrial revolution, and the biggest problems of the next generation.  Join us for a wealth of economic knowledge!

Economic forecasting is particularly challenging during global crises, with predictions often hampered by uncertainty and external factors.Hwee Kwan Chow and Keen Meng Choy from Singapore Management University examine Singapore's GDP and inflation forecasts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, uncovering the influence of government projections and herding behaviour that affect prediction accuracy.Read the original research: doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02311-8

As credit resilience weakens with a worsening fundamental backdrop, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests investors reconsider their portfolio quality.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why we think near term improvement may be temporary, and thus an opportunity to improve credit quality. It's Friday March 28th at 2pm in London. In volatile markets, it is always hard to parse how much is emotion, and how much is real change. As you would have heard earlier this week from my colleague Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, we see a window for short-term relief in U.S. stock markets, as a number of indicators suggest that markets may have been oversold. But for credit, we think this relief will be temporary. Fundamentals around the medium-term story are on the wrong track, with both growth and inflation moving in the wrong direction. Credit investors should use this respite to improve portfolio quality. Taking a step back, our original thinking entering 2025 was that the future presented a much wider range of economic scenarios, not a great outcome for credit per se, and some real slowing of U.S. growth into 2026, again not a particularly attractive outcome. Yet we also thought it would take time for these risks to arrive. For the economy, it entered 2025 with some pretty decent momentum. We thought it would take time for any changes in policy to both materialize and change the real economic trajectory. Meanwhile, credit had several tailwinds, including attractive yields, strong demand and stable balance sheet metrics. And so we initially thought that credit would remain quite resilient, even if other asset classes showed more volatility. But our conviction in that resilience from credit is weakening as the fundamental backdrop is getting worse. Changes to U.S. policy have been more aggressive, and happened more quickly than we previously expected. And partly as a result, Morgan Stanley's forecasts for growth, inflation and policy rates are all moving in the wrong direction – with forecasts showing now weaker growth, higher inflation and fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than we thought at the start of this year. And it's not just us. The Federal Reserve's latest Summary of Economic Projections, recently released, show a similar expectation for lower growth and higher inflation relative to the Fed's prior forecast path. In short, Morgan Stanley's economic forecasts point to rising odds of a scenario we think is challenging: weaker growth, and yet a central bank that may be hesitant to cut rates to support the economy, given persistent inflation. The rising risks of a scenario of weaker growth, higher inflation and less help from central bank policy temper our enthusiasm to buy the so-called dip – and add exposure given some modest recent weakness. Our U.S. credit strategy team, led by Vishwas Patkar, thinks that U.S. investment grade spreads are only 'fair', given these changing conditions, while spreads for U.S. high yield and U.S. loans should actually now be modestly wider through year-end – given the rising risks. In short, credit investors should try to keep powder dry, resist the urge to buy the dip, and look to improve portfolio quality. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

We break down the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision, the release of their minutes, the press conference, and the updated Summary of Economic Projections. We'll also take a look at key macroeconomic highlights from the past week, including retail sales, housing data, and insights from regional Fed surveys and indices. Finally, we sift for some key takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association's Q4 2024 report on commercial mortgage debt outstanding. Key Moments:01:36 Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Economic Projections06:27 Impact on Commercial Real Estate08:18 Macro Highlights: Retail Sales and Housing Data10:44 Manufacturing Indexes and Industrial Real Estate19:41 Financial Conditions and Stress Indexes24:18 Mortgage Bankers Association Q4 Report29:07 Upcoming Conferences and Events Resources Mentioned:FOMC meeting – https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20250319.htmAdvance Monthly Sales For Retail And Food Services, February 2025 - https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdfMonthly New Residential Constructino, February 2025 - https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.htmlEmpire State Manufacturing Survey - https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overviewPhilly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/manufacturing-business-outlook-surveyMortgage Bankers Association's Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding quarterly report - https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/03/18/commercial-and-multifamily-mortgage-debt-outstanding-increased--47.7-billion-in-third-quarter-of-2024Email us - altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

* A new bridge and a road widening project are aimed at helping a huge traffic problem in St. Tammany. We'll get the details from Daniel Gitlin with DOTD. * We recap the Federal Reserve's meeting amid economic uncertainty with Greg McBride, an analyst from Bankrate. How is the economy looking from your household?

LIVE REACTION: Fed Decision & Powell's Press Conference with Lobo Tiggre! Join Kai Hoffmann and Lobo Tiggre as they went live to react in real-time to the latest Federal Reserve decision and Jerome Powell's press conference! Did the Fed shock the markets again? How did gold, stocks, and the dollar react?--------------------

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities temporarily, but declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire. What renewed strikes on Gaza mean for Israel's coalition government. The Federal Reserve wraps up its latest meeting today and is widely expected to keep rates on hold. And Nvidia unveils its latest AI chip. Find our recommended read here and our exclusive on the U.S. suspending efforts to counter Russian sabotage is here. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter here. Find the latest Reuters Econ World podcast here. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

I provided this exclusively to my Culture Shockers to start the year off, now I want to share these projections with the entire Black community. Make sure you take notes on the companies and industries highlighted in this presentation. Please visit us at www.cultureshockinvestments.com to join the discord community or schedule a 1 on 1 consultation catered to you!

I provided this exclusively to my Culture Shockers to start the year off, now I want to share these projections with the entire Black community. Make sure you take notes on the companies and industries highlighted in this presentation. Please visit us at www.cultureshockinvestments.com to join the discord community or schedule a 1 on 1 consultation catered to you!

In football, it's always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or man-to-man?  In business or in military maneuvers the same rule applies – keep them guessing. However, in macro-economic management, it is better to make your plans clear.  That way businesses can feel more confident in hiring and investing, as can consumers when deciding to buy.  It is one of the reasons the Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (or SEP) and so frequently repeats its determination to achieve 2% inflation. 

Welcome to Dentist Money Two Cents, a look at the latest financial and economic news from the past week.
 On this episode, Matt, Jake, and Rabih discuss the Federal Reserve's economic projections and their impact on the economy, including GDP, umemployment, and inflation. They also talk about Jim Carrey's financial habits, highlighting the importance of mindful spending. Lastly, they share insights on market predictions for 2025 and how to navigate future trends. Book a free consultation with a CFP® advisor who only works with dentists. Get an objective financial assessment and learn how Dentist Advisors can help you live your rich life. Enjoy The Dentist Money Show? Vote for us as the Dental Fan Favorite podcast as many times you want! Vote at dentwoo.com/vote/ 

US equity futures are slightly weaker. European markets are trading lower, while Asian equities ended mostly lower. Market attention remains on this week's central bank policy meetings. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25-bp on Wednesday, though the updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot will likely draw more focus. Markets have been scaling back expectations for 2025 rate cuts. The BoE is set to update policy on Thursday, and the BoJ decision will follow on Friday, with both expected to keep rates unchanged. Weak Chinese activity data continues to highlight calls for further stimulus from Beijing, foreshadowing looser policy into 2025. Recent commentary from European Central Bank officials has supported the case for additional easing, though opinions remain divided on whether cuts will occur gradually.Companies Mentioned: Alibaba Group, Youngor Fashion Co., McCormick & Co., Shein

This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Victory Lap (03:38) Quinn's Framework (06:11) Bullish Rate Cut? (09:30) Summary of Economic Projections (14:32) Bullish Market Signals (18:05) The World Trade (21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle (24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk (27:50) Private Credit (29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt (31:43) Permissionless Ad (32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle (34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI (37:13) Economic Expectations (39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls (44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone (50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity (53:32) The Banana Zone (58:58) Monetary Matters (01:01:09) Balancing Market Views — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

US futures are indicating a flat open today. European equity markets are trading slightly lower, while Asian markets finished mixed. In top stories, the debate over the Fed's upcoming rate decision remains front and center. The market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 50-basis point rate cut at today's FOMC meeting, though economists are leaning toward a 25-basis point reduction. The updated Summary of Economic Projections will be closely watched, with forecasts suggesting 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. However, market pricing implies as much as 110 basis points in cuts by year-end.Companies Mentioned: Google, BlackRock, Microsoft, Brookfield Asset Management, NVIDIA, Nippon Steel, United States Steel

Join Andrew Wilkinson and Neil Azous, CIO of Rareview Capital, as they dissect the latest economic shifts ahead of the FOMC meeting. From anticipated interest rate cuts to global market reactions, they explore key insights on inflation, unemployment, and market dynamics. Tune in for expert analysis and actionable strategies for investors navigating today's complex financial landscape.  

This is the 5th episode of a five-part series on The Daily Coffee Pro by Map It Forward Podcast, hosted by Map It Forward founder, Lee Safar.This week's guest on the podcast is Espresso Technician and coffee professional, Spencer Perez. Spencer is part of a growing number of espresso technicians who have formed a community on a Discord server called Service Layer. This series explores the rapidly evolving role of the espresso tech today.In this final episode of this series of The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward, Lee and Spencer discuss the evolving culture of espresso technicians in the coffee industry. They explore how techs with coffee backgrounds bring a new layer of empathy and understanding to their roles, impacting local economies and the industry at large. The episode highlights the importance of trust between cafe owners and technicians, the complexities of choosing the right equipment, and the broader impacts of economic shifts within the coffee value chain. Spencer shares insights into the challenges faced by espresso techs, including market saturation and economic downturns, and emphasizes the need for resiliency and diversified services. Tune in to learn how this emerging shift in espresso tech culture can positively influence the coffee industry.00:00 Introduction and Sponsor Message01:00 Welcome and Series Conclusion01:20 Emerging Shift in Espresso Technician Culture02:12 Technicians with Coffee Backgrounds06:03 Building Trust with Clients10:44 Economic Projections and Industry Impact13:27 Adapting to Market Changes20:37 Future of Specialty Coffee20:58 Connecting with Espresso Technicians23:23 Closing Remarks and Sign OffConnect with the community of technicians at https://www.servicelayer.coffee/••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

This is the 5th episode of a five-part series on The Daily Coffee Pro by Map It Forward Podcast, hosted by Map It Forward founder, Lee Safar.This week's guest on the podcast is Espresso Technician and coffee professional, Spencer Perez. Spencer is part of a growing number of espresso technicians who have formed a community on a Discord server called Service Layer. This series explores the rapidly evolving role of the espresso tech today.In this final episode of this series of The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward, Lee and Spencer discuss the evolving culture of espresso technicians in the coffee industry. They explore how techs with coffee backgrounds bring a new layer of empathy and understanding to their roles, impacting local economies and the industry at large. The episode highlights the importance of trust between cafe owners and technicians, the complexities of choosing the right equipment, and the broader impacts of economic shifts within the coffee value chain. Spencer shares insights into the challenges faced by espresso techs, including market saturation and economic downturns, and emphasizes the need for resiliency and diversified services. Tune in to learn how this emerging shift in espresso tech culture can positively influence the coffee industry.00:00 Introduction and Sponsor Message01:00 Welcome and Series Conclusion01:20 Emerging Shift in Espresso Technician Culture02:12 Technicians with Coffee Backgrounds06:03 Building Trust with Clients10:44 Economic Projections and Industry Impact13:27 Adapting to Market Changes20:37 Future of Specialty Coffee20:58 Connecting with Espresso Technicians23:23 Closing Remarks and Sign OffConnect with the community of technicians at https://www.servicelayer.coffee/••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••Support this podcast by supporting our Patreon:https://bit.ly/MIFPatreonThe Daily Coffee Pro by Map It Forward Podcast Host: Lee Safarhttps://www.mapitforward.coffeehttps://www.instagram.com/mapitforward.coffeehttps://www.instagram.com/leesafar••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Fed May Let Inflation Run Higher If Unemployment Rate Surges At last week's Fed meeting and press conference, the markets rallied as the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections suggested that #theFed members are still anticipating 3 rate cuts in 2024. Yet what got less attention, but may be even more impactful, is that Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed may be willing to let inflation run hotter than its 2% mandate if there's a surge in the unemployment rate (which has risen from 3.4% last May to 3.9% this February). So in today's show we look at the Fed's recent comments, as well as the reaction in the precious metals in the days following the Fed's announcement, that occurred after yet another increase in the #silver short position held by the banks. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - Find out more about Silver Viper Minerals and their La Virginia project by going to: https://silverviperminerals.com/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Silver Viper Minerals, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-silver-viper-minerals/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

In this episode, we unpack the results of the Fed meeting and the release of the Fed's March Summary of Economic Projections. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of Stifel Financial Corp. or its affiliates (collectively, Stifel).  This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.  Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss.  © Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated | Member SIPC & NYSE | www.stifel.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation and interest rates and elections OH MY!  Hear from one of the most savvy financial advisors in the US, David Pickler.  In today's episode he talks about the economic juggling act in motion, the exponential change that has led us to the fourth industrial revolution, and the biggest problems of the next generation.  Join us for a wealth of economic knowledge!

Yesterday's updated Summary of Economic Projections clearly supports market expectations for a soft landing, especially when compared to the SEP from last December. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The updated dot plot will likely attract the most attention when the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections today. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Four times per year, the Federal Open Market Committee releases a Summary of Economic Projections that reports FOMC participants' projections for the federal funds rate and key economic variables. The SEP, featuring the so-called “dot plot,” gives markets a sense of where the Fed feels the economy and monetary policy are heading the next few years, but the implications are not always clear. In this episode, Sophia Kearney-Lederman of FHN Financial talks about what goes into the Fed's projections, how to interpret them, and how much value they have at this point in the tightening cycle.

#Gold, #Silver Trend Higher Ahead Of Latest Fed Meeting Once again it's time for another Federal Reserve policy meeting, where they provide their latest update on their balancing act between keeping up their fight against inflation, and avoiding a recession/banking collapse in response to the higher interest rates. As many forecasted over the past 10 years during the 0% interest rate decade, it's become a tricky dynamic to maneuver. We've already seen bank failures earlier this year that forced the Fed to launch a new funding facility to take assets that were losing value off of the banks' balance sheet. And as we will cover in today's show, the pressure in the banking system still appears to be far from over. Yet the higher rates for longer has left gold and silver in a holding pattern throughout the year, with silver slightly down on the year, while gold is slightly above where it began 2023. Both precious metals are rising this morning ahead of the Fed's announcement, where in particular the market will be looking for the updated Summary of Economic Projections. Which in June continued to suggest that the Fed voting board was still expecting interest rate cuts in 2024 and beyond. Will the rising energy prices and CPI readings impact what the Fed will do going forward? It's not an easy position they're in at this point, which we discuss in today's show, as well as some recent silver data. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - To get 5 ounce silver Nordic bars for $1.99 over spot email: Arcadia@MilesFranklin.com To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) We do receive compensation from Miles Franklin from orders placed through our show. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-miles-franklin-precious-metals/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

#Gold, #Silver Trend Higher Ahead Of Latest Fed Meeting Once again it's time for another Federal Reserve policy meeting, where they provide their latest update on their balancing act between keeping up their fight against inflation, and avoiding a recession/banking collapse in response to the higher interest rates. As many forecasted over the past 10 years during the 0% interest rate decade, it's become a tricky dynamic to maneuver. We've already seen bank failures earlier this year that forced the Fed to launch a new funding facility to take assets that were losing value off of the banks' balance sheet. And as we will cover in today's show, the pressure in the banking system still appears to be far from over. Yet the higher rates for longer has left gold and silver in a holding pattern throughout the year, with silver slightly down on the year, while gold is slightly above where it began 2023. Both precious metals are rising this morning ahead of the Fed's announcement, where in particular the market will be looking for the updated Summary of Economic Projections. Which in June continued to suggest that the Fed voting board was still expecting interest rate cuts in 2024 and beyond. Will the rising energy prices and CPI readings impact what the Fed will do going forward? It's not an easy position they're in at this point, which we discuss in today's show, as well as some recent silver data. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - To get 5 ounce silver Nordic bars for $1.99 over spot email: Arcadia@MilesFranklin.com To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) We do receive compensation from Miles Franklin from orders placed through our show. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-miles-franklin-precious-metals/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Finally, traditional indicators also may be missing the mark in predicting persistent inflation.  In particular, in the June Summary of Economic Projections, most members of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee in effect professed that an unemployment rate of 4% or higher was necessary to attain the Fed's long-term objective of 2% inflation.  However, the unemployment rate has now been below 4% for 21 straight months and, yet, since March of last year, year-over-year wage growth has drifted down from a peak of 5.9% to 4.3% last month. 

Let's talk about the World Bank's economic projections for 2023.... --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/support