FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than initially anticipated. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by another 25 basis points last week. MPC members appear perhaps as divided as ever over the path ahead for UK rates. The bank's communications were hawkish, however, suggesting that a “gradual” pace of cuts lies ahead. But, what does this mean for sterling?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US currency? We also look ahead to the release of next week's highly important US GDP report. Is the world's largest economy on course to post a shock contraction in the first quarter? And is a US recession inevitable in 2025?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

It's been a barely believable few days in financial markets since President Trump unveiled the details of his reciprocal tariffs during his so-called “Liberation Day” on 2nd April. Risk assets crashed on the realisation that the tariffs would be significantly more aggressive than anyone had been anticipating. The dramatic 90-day pause to all trade levies (China aside) has triggered a fresh bout of volatility in markets, and some stocks indices posted among their largest one-day rallies this century. We've seen a non-typical reaction in financial markets, however. The traditional safe-havens, US Treasuries and the dollar, have sold-off aggressively, with investors seemingly losing faith in American exceptionalism. The euro has emerged as a de facto safe-haven, and EUR/USD has soared to its strongest position in three years. What do our analysts make of the chaotic week in markets? And what might happen next?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

In this week's episode of FX Talk, Matt and Roman are joined by our Sao Paulo analyst, Eduardo Moutinho, to discuss the latest headlines in the currency market. The dollar has sold-off sharply against most currencies in recent weeks as investors fear a slowdown in US growth. Yet, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its cautious approach to cuts, is this move lower in the greenback perhaps overdone?Meanwhile, the euro has surged above the $1.09 level this month, buoyed by the news of a massive fiscal stimulus package in Germany. Is this a game changing moment for the Euro Area economy and the common currency?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

President Trump has followed through with plans to slap massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while also unveiling fresh 10% duties on China. The US dollar would ordinarily be trading higher under such circumstances, but the greenback has sold-off sharply across the board. What is fuelling the move? And how concerning is the recent deterioration in US economic news?Meanwhile, last week's Ukraine discussions in the White House descended into a farce. European currencies are performing well, however, as markets take an optimistic view on the situation. What do our analysts make of an extraordinary hectic couple of weeks in financial markets?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE's 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain's admittedly fragile growth outlook?Elsewhere, European currencies have been buoyed by hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, investors are skeptical that the negotiations will lead to anything more than a temporary pause in the conflict, which is acting to keep the rally in risk in check. Our analysts discuss all the latest developments and more in the latest episode of FX Talk.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Without question, the only real talking point on investors' lips at present is the protectionist utterings emanating from the recently anointed Trump administration. Risk currencies sold-off sharply after Trump unveiled savage tariffs aimed at Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, although these moves have since reversed after a number of the trade restrictions were delayed at the eleventh hour. But, what do our analysts make of the headlines? Is Trump serious? Or are these tariff threats merely a negotiating ploy? And how could markets react to the imposition of trade restrictions on the European Union?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Ton-up! FX Talk has reached a century of episodes! In this special podcast recording, we take a trip down memory lane and discuss some of the most memorable moments from our time covering financial markets. From the panic caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the Global Financial Crisis, to the Brexit vote, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. Our analysts also shed some light on how they began following markets, while discussing some of the aspects that they enjoy the most about their current roles. We also provide some advice and tips to notice investors that are looking to gain a better understanding of currency markets.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

2025 looks set to be another eventful year in financial markets. Focus among market participants will be largely on news out of the incoming Trump administration, particularly details surrounding the Republicans tariff proposals. The world's major central banks will continue to lower interest rates, as inflation globally gradually returns back to target levels, while growing downside risks to growth could trigger a mild global slowdown.But, what do our analysts see as the main focal point for investors this year? How could the global economy perform, and which currencies do we think will under- and outperform in 2025? Listen to this week's FX Talk episode to find out!We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

2024 has been another highly eventful year in financial markets. Political developments have dominated the headlines following the collapse of governments in Germany and France, and election wins for Donald Trump and Keir Starmer's Labour Party. Central banks globally have continued to lower policy rates and we've seen another outperformance in the US economy relative to its developed peers. This has boosted the dollar to near the summit of the year-to-date FX performance tracker. Our analysts give their thoughts on the main developments in markets this year, while also discussing the December policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The main theme in currency markets since the US election has continued to be broad dollar strength. The greenback has rallied against most major and emerging market currencies in the past month, as investors brace for higher US inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and hefty tariffs under the second Trump administration. The big underperformer in that time has been the euro, which continues to languish near two-year lows. Renewed political uncertainty in France further clouds the outlook for the common currency, following the collapse of Michel Barnier's government. But, what does this political wrangling mean for the European Central Bank?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Donald Trump has once again outperformed the polls and romped home to a comfortable victory in the US presidential election. Markets were bracing for a knife-edge vote but, in reality, it was anything but, with Trump set to win in all seven battleground states once the final results are confirmed. The US dollar soared across the board, posting its largest one-day rally since the Brexit vote in 2016. But, what does the election mean for the US and global economies? And what do our analysts make of the reaction thus far in the FX market? Listen to our US election special to find out more!We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

November's US presidential election is shaping up to be a highly important risk event for financial markets. Former president Trump has opened up a narrow lead in the latest opinion surveys, although most prediction models suggest that the outcome of the vote is far from set in stone. But what could the result of the election mean for US domestic and foreign policy? How important could the composition of Congress be in the election? And what would both a Trump or Harris presidency mean for the US dollar and emerging market currencies? Our analysts give their thoughts on these questions and more in this US election special.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The dollar has roared higher against most currencies since our last episode amid a confluence of supportive factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have fuelled safe-haven flows, while triggering a move higher in oil prices. US macroeconomic news has also taken a turn for the better, with last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report smashing past even the most optimistic of forecasts. In this week's episode, we discuss the recent rally in the greenback, the FX implications for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the fallout from some surprisingly dovish comments from governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The Federal Reserve surprised markets last week, delivering a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut. Yet, the bank's famous ‘dot plot' of interest rate projections was moderately more hawkish than expected, which limited the downside in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held rates steady, emphasising again that additional cuts are likely to be gradual. This has helped propel the pound to its strongest position since the Brexit vote in trade-weighted terms.The euro has lagged behind its UK counterpart, particularly following the collapse in this week's Euro Area PMI figures. Does this point to another period of stagnation ahead, and could the data force the ECB to deliver back-to-back cuts? Our analysts give their thoughts in this week's FX Talk episode.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The dollar has had a wretched summer thus far, as investors fret over the possibility of a US recession amid signs of a cooling in the country's labour market. In this week's FX Talk episode, our analysts outline whether these economic slowdown concerns are overdone, or indeed justified. They also look ahead to a highly important period of trading in financial markets. This includes breaking down the possible implications of the August nonfarm payrolls report on Federal Reserve interest rates, while discussing the potential impact of the upcoming Harris-Trump televised debate on currency markets.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The Bank of England slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2020 on Thursday in a narrow 5-4 vote. While this was not fully priced in by markets, the bank's statement struck a cautious note on future cuts, warning that rates would not be lowered too much or too quickly. This partly allowed GBP to hold its own following the decision.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, but chair Powell firmly hinted at a cut at the next meeting in September, which now appears set in stone. The Bank of Japan also hiked interest rates this week, but what does this mean for the global FX carry trade?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The last few weeks have been action packed in financial markets. Political news has been front and centre following elections in the UK and France, and the shocking assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend. While the dollar received a modest boost on the growing likelihood of a Trump election win, the greenback is trading lower on most currencies globally so far this month following the miss in the June US inflation report.But is a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve now set in stone? And what could a Trump election victory mean for markets? We answer these questions, and provide our thoughts on the stellar performance in the pound, which remains the best performing major currency in the world in 2024.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Activity in the FX market since our last episode has been largely dominated by political jitters, with both France and Britain to go to the polls in crucial elections in the coming weeks. While the UK general election appears a foregone conclusion, the French legislative elections are anything but. We break down the possible scenarios of the latter, and discuss what kind of impact the vote could have on the euro, which has underperformed its peers since the election was called.We also discuss the fallout from the June meetings of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. When will the FOMC pull the trigger on lower US rates? And will the ECB deliver one or two additional cuts in 2024? Tune in to hear our thoughts!We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

2024 looks set to go down in the history books as one of the most significant years in global politics in modern times, with almost half of the world's population to take to the polls in some capacity. A historic rematch between current US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looks highly likely when Americans take to the polls in November. As things stand, markets are almost entirely in the dark as to who will come out on top, and it is also similarly unclear as to which party will control the two houses that make up Congress.The UK general election also looks set to take place later in the year. While the Labour Party appears highly likely to secure enough seats for a comfortable majority, the reaction in sterling to a change from the status quo is not necessarily set in stone. We discuss the possible economic, political and currency ramifications of these two votes, while also giving our thoughts ahead of the European Parliament elections, set to be held in June.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The FX market has been sparked back into life in the past fortnight. A bout of strong data out of the US economy, notably the March inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports, has led markets to push back their timetable for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran's missile attack on Israel has also triggered safe-haven flows into the dollar, which has jumped to its strongest position against its major peers since November. But, when do we see the Fed easing policy this year, if at all? And what could an escalation in the Middle East conflict mean for the global economy, financial markets and currencies? Listen to this week's episode to find out our thoughts!We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

March was an extraordinarily busy month in the foreign exchange market, with a host of major central bank announcements creating an interesting trading environment. The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank both surprised investors, with the former raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, while the latter cut its main rate one meeting ahead of expectations. The dollar has rallied against most currencies globally, despite the Fed indicating to markets that it sees three US rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Bank of England delivered a ‘dovish hold', hinting that lower UK rates could be on the way in the not too distant future. But when could the MPC deliver its first interest rate cut?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The big talking point in the FX market in the past couple of weeks has been the sell-off in the US dollar, which has lost ground against almost every currency globally. FOMC chair Powell has hinted that a first US rate cut may be close, and markets are now eyeing the bank's June meeting as the start date for easing. US macroeconomic data, meanwhile, has been rather mixed, with a weak nonfarm payrolls report offset by hotter-than-expected inflation data. The coming week looks set to be a highly eventful one, with several major central banks announcing their latest policy decisions. Could either the Federal Reserve or Bank of England hint at lower rates ahead? And will the Bank of Japan deliver its first rate hike since 2007? We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this week's episode, our analysts discuss the latest business activity PMI numbers out of the G3 economies, which seem to be pointing to a convergence in economic performance between the US and its major peers. Matt, Enrique and Roman also give their thoughts on what to expect from next week's European Central Bank meeting. While the economy in the common bloc has ground to a near standstill, communications from Governing Council members have been hawkish, and a change in rates in March seems highly unlikely.Lastly, we discuss our view on the Chilean peso - one of the worst performing currencies in the world so far in 2024. Has the sell-off in the peso gone too far? Or is there room for an additional depreciation in the currency?We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The UK economy crashed into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, after Britain's GDP contracted for the second straight quarter in Q4. While this was no big surprise to investors, the magnitude of the downturn was more severe than anticipated. But, what impact did the news have on the pound? And how could the UK's disappointing growth performance influence Bank of England monetary policy?Elsewhere, Japan's economy also fell into recession, adding further misery to the yen. The dollar, meanwhile, remains the best performing major currency in the world, as a hotter-than-expected US inflation report suggested that the Federal Reserve could wait until at least its June policy meeting before it begins lowering interest rates.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.This episode will cover:0.57 - Basics of Exchange Rates2:50  - Bid and Offer Rates3.57 - Types of Analysis5.36 - FX Trading and OrdersWe'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first time since the December FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and robust US economic data, including encouraging December retail sales and a formidable fourth-quarter GDP report, play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics. Surprisingly, despite hawkish communications from the Bank of Japan, the JPY lags behind, while the EUR and GBP manage to hold up relatively well, with the latter performing particularly well this year.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover:0.55 - How the foreign exchange market operates 4:10  - Market dynamics and participants5.55 - Role of liquidity providers We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

In this week's episode, our analysts turn their attention to the year ahead, and give their thoughts on what to expect in the FX market in the coming twelve months. What will be the most important themes in markets this year, and how could central bank easing cycles and the US and UK elections impact currencies? We also give our thoughts on the global economy, and discuss the arguments in favour of both stronger and weaker growth in 2024. Our episode ends with our analysts providing their predictions for the currencies that they believe will both over- and underperform in 2024. Is the Japanese yen poised for a rebound, and which emerging market currencies could struggle this year? Listen to this week's FX Talk episode to find out our thoughts!We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this episode, we delve into the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly dovish shift following its December policy meeting. FOMC Chair Powell said the ‘progress' had been made on inflation, while noting that discussions were already being had on interest rate cuts. The ‘dot plot' was also revised lower, suggesting a total of 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. Markets embraced the narrative of imminent and rapid rate reductions, triggering a sharp sell-off in the US dollar against most currencies. We also give our thoughts on the December policy announcements from both the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while each picking the currencies that have surprised us the most in 2023.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

We unpack the recent inflation developments, focusing on the disappointing October US and UK CPI reports. These both fell short of market expectations, leading to no shortage of volatility in markets. US headline inflation dropped sharply to 3.2%, while monthly inflation failed to rise for the first time since July 2022. This, coupled with a two-year low in the core measure, all but cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with its hiking cycle. The result was a sharp sell-off in the dollar, which fell by more than 2% against its major peers. EUR/USD is trading at August highs above $1.09, while sterling has climbed back above the $1.25 level, despite last week's drop in UK inflation.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover:1. Barter System and Gold Coins2. Gold Standard Era3. Bretton Woods Agreement4. Evolution to Modern CurrenciesWe'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!  

We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October's underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report.Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates steady this month, while hinting that further rate hikes were probably unlikely. The FOMC struck an optimistic tone on US growth, although Powell expressed caution due to the increase in Treasury yields and a lag in policy transmission. Meanwhile, the Bank of England slashed its 2024 GDP forecast, warning that the UK economy was set to flatline next year.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions.Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a dovish tone from several Fed policymakers that tempered expectations of more US rate hikes.However, the dollar has shown broad strength in the past week, partly due to stronger US inflation figures. The euro is hovering just above 10-month lows, reflecting concerns about the state of the Eurozone economy. The British pound is also struggling, with a soft UK GDP report and vague comments from Bank of England members providing little clarity on UK interest rates.Among the G10 currencies, safe-havens like the US dollar and Swiss franc have been the best performers in the past week.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike', whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England's decision to hold rates steady, after the August UK inflation report missed expectations. On the flip side, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, keeping rates unchanged, although indicating in its ‘dot plot' that it foresees one final hike by year-end. These hawkish communications, and recent strong US data, have led to a sharp move higher in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising to a 16-year high around 4.8%.  This has triggered an aggressive rally in the US dollar against almost every other currency. The USD index has risen by more than 6.5% since mid-July to its highest level since November.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP,  PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has shown great strength, with a healthy labour market and impressive growth indicators. In contrast, the Euro and Sterling have fallen from their highs against USD. Last week's business activity PMI data from the UK and EZ have been underwhelming and have fallen into contraction, indicating further economic difficulties.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover:1. Understanding exchange rates2. Floating systems 3. Fixed exchange rates4. Impact of Central BanksWe'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it's notable that there remains plenty for the markets to consider and for us to discuss.Over the past few weeks, headlines have been dominated by the meetings of the G4 central banks, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised rates by another 25 basis points at its July meeting. This comes after offering indications that it may cease raising rates, following evident signs of U.S. inflation easing. In the same vein, the European Central Bank adopted an unexpectedly dovish stance. Notably, Lagarde refrained from committing to any hikes, suggesting a potential pause from September onwards.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis.Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3% in March 2021, while the core inflation decreased to below 5% in November 2021.The sell-off in the USD can be attributed to increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt interest rate hikes by this summer. The expectation currently stands at a 25 basis point hike in July, with the date projected for 26/07. However, indications suggest this could be the last hike in the current cycle, with futures showing a 1-in-4 chance by November.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover:1. Explanation of GDP and its importance.2. Methods to calculate GDP.3. Components of the Expenditure Approach.4. Impact of GDP on foreign exchange.5. Timely indicators and labor market data.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stance, as seen at the meeting in Sintra, Portugal. Powell has reiterated the possibility of a couple more rate hikes in the US without any cuts in the near term. Lagarde has practically confirmed an ECB hike in July. In other news, the Australian dollar has rebounded despite the unexpected decision by the RBA to hold rates unchanged in their July meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has approached new lows despite speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the FX market (more on that in a later episode). However, the primary focus of this week's episode will be on emerging markets.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this episode, we discuss the recent volatility in financial markets due to a number of major economic data releases and central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause, hinting at the possibility of raising interest rates on two more occasions in 2023, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again and indicated that another rate increase is on the way in July. Despite these hawkish stances, the dollar sold off across the board, leaving the hosts to consider why this underperformance occurred.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this exhilarating episode of FX Talk, our Market Analysts dive deep into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, set to take place on the 14th and 15th of June, respectively. Delve into the speculations surrounding the Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on their considerations.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover:- Definition and explanation of inflation- Measurement of inflation- Types of inflation- Terminology related to inflation- Importance of inflation data and central bank's roleWe'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

We dive into the main reasons behind the recent strength of the US dollar in the global markets. The USD has been trading higher against most other G10 and emerging market currencies, except for a few exceptions such as Latin American ones. We explore what's been driving this rally, with a focus on market concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling and how they have contributed to the safe-haven flows into the greenback. We also discuss the ongoing negotiations in Washington around the debt ceiling and why they are so important for the markets. Additionally, we analyze the relative performance of the Eurozone and the UK economies and how it may impact the euro's performance against the pound.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Amidst important data releases, the US NFP beat expectations, but the US CPI reported a decline in inflationary pressures. G10 currencies have seen the USD as the worst-performing currency for the past two months (except for JPY), largely due to an increasingly confident market that the Fed is finished hiking rates after May meeting. In contrast, the ECB and BoE have more room to go. The ECB is still data-dependent, whereas the BoE voted to raise rates by 25bps at its May meeting. Despite this, the pound and euro have been the two best-performing currencies in the G10 so far in 2023.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover:- What are central banks? - What is the purpose of central banks?- How do central banks set monetary policy- Why do central banks change interest rates? - How do central bank rates impact currencies?- The importance of central bank foreign exchange reserves  We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Welcome to the latest episode of FX Talk, where we bring you all the latest news, headlines, and developments in the foreign exchange market. In this fortnightly dose, we cover the most important events that have occurred since our last episode. Despite a quieter period in the markets, banking uncertainty has been a key focus, which has now significantly abated. On the positive side, risk sentiment is high, with most currencies performing well against safe havens, and there has been a broad sell-off of the USD. We'll also discuss the signs of continued cooling in US inflation, which has contributed to the expectation that the Fed may soon end its hiking cycle. So, sit back, relax, and let's dive into the latest news in the FX market.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this episode, we discuss the recent banking turmoil, specifically the failure of SVB and its impact on the market. SVB's sensitivity to interest rate risk and its investment in long-duration bonds led to a significant mark-to-market hole in its balance sheet, causing depositors and investors to withdraw their funds en masse. This panic has contributed to the troubles faced by Credit Suisse, but we believe these failures are one-offs rather than systemic issues. While the market has stabilized, we must closely monitor the situation. In terms of central bank rate hikes, there is a delicate balancing act between banking uncertainty and inflation. Markets are only pricing in one more 25bp move from the Fed, but we believe the ECB and BoE still have room to go. We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period.Let's start with the US. We have seen a string of positive surprises in recent macroeconomic data. The latest reports on GDP, retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation have all exceeded expectations in the past month. Even the latest services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management beat consensus and was comfortably above 50. Initial jobless claims and new claims for unemployment benefits have fallen again, with no significant uptick in layoffs, despite ongoing recession concerns.What does this mean for the markets? Investors have gone from pricing in one to two additional Fed hikes to now expecting three to four. Even FOMC Chair Powell has opened up the possibility of a 50bp return in March.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Since the last episode, the markets have experienced a relatively quiet period, with most major currencies trading within narrow ranges. There were, however, some exceptions in Scandinavia, where certain currencies rallied sharply. For instance, the Swedish krona jumped following a hawkish announcement from Riksbank. On the other end of the scale, the euro underperformed and was the only G10 currency that failed to rally against the US dollar.That being said, there has been a noticeable increase in volatility around this week's main event, the US inflation report for January, which is due to be released on Tuesday. We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!