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In this special episode of the Oracle University Podcast, Lois Houston and Nikita Abraham, along with Principal HCM Instructor Jeff Schuster, delve into the intersection of HCM and AI, exploring the practical applications and implications of this technology in human resources. Jeff shares his insights on bias and fairness, the importance of human involvement, and the need for explainability and transparency in AI systems. The discussion also covers the various AI features embedded in HCM and their impact on talent acquisition, performance management, and succession planning. Oracle AI in Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management: https://mylearn.oracle.com/ou/learning-path/oracle-ai-in-fusion-cloud-human-capital-management-hcm/136722 Oracle Fusion Cloud HCM: Dynamic Skills: https://mylearn.oracle.com/ou/course/oracle-fusion-cloud-hcm-dynamic-skills/116654/ Oracle University Learning Community: https://education.oracle.com/ou-community LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/oracle-university/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oracle_Edu Special thanks to Arijit Ghosh, David Wright, and the OU Studio Team for helping us create this episode. -------------------------------------------------------- 00:00 Welcome to the Oracle University Podcast, the first stop on your cloud journey. During this series of informative podcasts, we'll bring you foundational training on the most popular Oracle technologies. Let's get started! 00:26 Lois: Hello and welcome to the Oracle University Podcast! I'm Lois Houston, Director of Innovation Programs here at Oracle University, and with me, is Nikita Abraham, Team Lead of Editorial Services. Nikita: Hi everyone! Last week's conversation was all about Oracle Database 23ai backup and recovery, where we dove into instance recovery and effective recovery strategies. Today's episode is a really special one, isn't it, Lois? 00:53 Lois: It is, indeed, Niki. Of course, all of our AI episodes are special. But today, we have our friend and colleague Jeff Schuster with us. I think our listeners are really going to enjoy what Jeff has to share with us. Nikita: Yeah definitely! Jeff is a Principal HCM Instructor at Oracle University. He recently put together this really fantastic course on MyLearn, all about the intersection of HCM and AI, and that's what we want to pick his brain about today. Hi Jeff! We're so excited to have you here. 01:22 Jeff: Hey Niki! Hi Lois! I feel special already. Thanks you guys so much for having me. Nikita: You've had a couple of busy months, haven't you? 01:29 Jeff: I have! It's been a busy couple of months with live classes. I try and do one on AI in HCM at least once a month or so so that we can keep up with the latest/greatest stuff in that area. And I also got to spend a few days at Cloud World teaching a few live classes (about artificial intelligence in HCM, as a matter of fact) and meeting our customers and partners. So yeah, absolutely great week. A good time was had by me. 01:55 Lois: I'm sure. Cloud World is such a great experience. And just to clarify, do you think our customers and partners also had a good time, Jeff? It wasn't just you, right? Jeff: Haha! I don't think it was just me, Lois. But, you know, HCM is always a big deal, and now with all the embedded AI functionality, it really wasn't hard to find people who wanted to spend a little extra time talking about AI in the context of our HCM apps. So, there are more than 30 separate AI-powered features in HCM. AI features for candidates to find the right jobs; for hiring managers to find the right candidates; skills, talent, performance management, succession planning— all of it is there and it really covers everything across the Attract/Grow/Keep buckets of the things that HR professionals do for a living. So, anyway, yeah, lots to talk about with a lot of people! There's the functional part that people want to know about—what are these features and how do they work? But obviously, AI carries with it all this cultural significance these days. There's so much uncertainty that comes from this pace of development in that area. So in fact, my Cloud World talk always starts with this really silly intro that we put in place just to knock down that anxiety and get to the more practical, functional stuff. 03:11 Nikita: Ok, we're going to need to discuss the functional stuff, but I feel like we're getting a raw deal if we don't also get that silly intro. Lois: She makes a really good point. Jeff: Hahaha! Alright, fair enough. Ok, but you guys are gonna have to imagine I've got a microphone and a big room and a lot of echo. AI is everywhere. In your home. In your office. In your homie's home office. 03:39 Lois: I feel like I just watched the intro of a sci-fi movie. Jeff: Yeah. I'm not sure it's one I'd watch, but I think more importantly it's a good way to get into discussing some of the overarching things we need to know about AI and Oracle's approach before we dive into the specific features, so you know, those features will make more sense when we get there? 03:59 Nikita: What are these “overarching” things? Jeff: Well, the things we work on anytime we're touching AI at Oracle. So, you know, it starts with things like Bias and Fairness. We usually end up in a pretty great conversation about things like how we avoid bias on the front end by making sure we don't ingest things like bias-generating content, which is to say data that doesn't necessarily represent bias by itself, but could be misused. And that pretty naturally leads us into a talk about guardrails. Nikita: Guardrails? Jeff: Yeah, you can think of those as checkpoints. So, we've got rules about ingestion and bias. And if we check the output coming out of the LLM to ensure it complied with the bias and fairness rules, that's a guardrail. So, we do that. And we do it again on the apps side. And so that's to say, even though it's already been checked on the AI side, before we bring the output into the HCM app, it's checked again. So another guardrail. 04:58 Lois: How effective is that? The guardrails, and not taking in data that's flagged as bias-generating? Jeff: Well, I'll say this: It's both surprisingly good, and also nowhere near good enough. Lois: Ok, that's as clear as mud. You want to elaborate on that? Jeff: Haha! I think all it means is that approach does a great job, but our second point in the whole “standards” discussion is about the significance of having a human in the loop. Sometimes more than one, but the point here is that, particularly in HCM, where we're handling some really important and sensitive data, and we're introducing really powerful technology, the H in HCM gets even more important. So, throughout the HCM AI course, we talk about opportunities to have a human in the loop. And it's not just for reviewing things. It's about having the AI make suggestions, and not decisions, for example. And that's something we always have a human in the loop for all the time. In fact, when I started teaching AI for HCM, I always said that I like to think of it is as a great big brain, without any hands. 06:00 Nikita: So, we're not talking about replacing humans in HCM with AI. Jeff: No, but we're definitely talking about changing what the humans do and why it's more important than ever what the humans do. So, think of it this way, we can have our embedded AI generate this amazing content, or create really useful predictions, whatever it is that we need. We can use whatever tools we want to get there, but we can still expect people to ask us, “Where did that come from?” or “Does this account for [whatever]?”. So we still have to be able to answer that. So that's another thing we talk about as kind of an overarching important concept: Explainability and Transparency. 06:41 Nikita: I'm assuming that's the part about showing our work, right? Explaining what's being considered, how it's being processed, and what it is that you're getting back. Jeff: That's exactly it. So we like to have that discussion up front, even before we get to things like Gen and Non-Gen AI, because it's great context to have in mind when you start thinking about the technology. Whenever we're looking at the tech or the features, we're always thinking about whether people are appropriately involved, and whether people can understand the AI product as well as they need to. 07:11 Lois: You mentioned Gen and Non-Gen AI. I've also heard people use the term “Classic AI.” And lately, a lot more about RAG and Agents. When you're teaching the course, does everybody manage to keep all the terminology straight? Jeff: Yeah, people usually do a great job with this. I think the trick is, you have to know that you need to know it, if that makes sense. Lois: I think so, but why don't you spell it out for us. Jeff: Well, the temptation is sometimes to leave that stuff to the implementers or product developers, who we know need to have a deep understanding of all of that. But I think what we've learned is, especially because of all the functional implications, practitioners, product owners, everybody needs to know it too. If for no other reason so they can have more productive conversations with their implementers. You need to know that Classic or Non-Generative AI leverages machine learning, and that that's all you need in order to do some incredibly powerful things like predictions and matching. So in HCM, we're talking about things like predicting time to hire, identifying suggested candidates for job openings, finding candidates similar to ones you already like, suggesting career paths for employees, and finding recommended successors. All really powerful matching stuff. And all of that stuff uses machine learning and it's certainly AI, but none of that uses Generative AI to do that because it doesn't need to. 08:38 Nikita: So how does that fit in with all the hype we've been hearing for a long time now about Gen AI and how it's such a transformative technology that's going to be more impactful than anything else? Jeff: Yeah, and that can be true too. And this is what we really lean into when we do the AI in HCM course live. It's much more of a “right AI for the right job” kind of proposition. Lois: So, just like you wouldn't use a shovel to mix a cake. Use the right tool for the job. I think I've got it. So, the Classic AI is what's driving those kinds of features in HCM? The matching and recommendations? Jeff: Exactly right. And where we need generative content, that's where we add on the large language model capability. With LLMs, we get the ability to do natural language processing. So it makes sense that that's the technology we'd use for tasks like “write me a job description” or “write me performance development tips for my employee”. 09:33 Nikita: Ok, so how does that fit in with what Lois was asking about RAG and Agents? Is that something people care about, or need to? Jeff: I think it's easiest to think about those as the “what's next” pieces, at least as it relates to the embedded AI. They kind of deal with the inherent limitations of Gen and Non-Gen components. So, RAG, for example - I know you guys know, but your listeners might not...so what's RAG stand for? Lois & Nikita: Retrieval. Augmented. Generation. Jeff: Hahaha! Exactly. Obviously. But I think everything an HCM person needs to know about that is in the name. So for me, it's easiest to read that one backwards. Retrieval Augmented Generation. Well, the Generation just means it's more generative AI. Augmented means it's supplementing the existing AI. And Retrieval just tells you that that's how it's doing it. It's going out and fetching something it didn't already have in order to complete the operation. 10:31 Lois: And this helps with those limitations you mentioned? Nikita: Yeah, and what are they anyway? Jeff: I think an example most people are familiar with is that large language models are trained on this huge set of information. To a certain point. So that model is trained right up to the point where it stopped getting trained. So if you're talking about interacting with ChatGPT, as an example, it'll blow your doors off right up until you get to about October of 2023 and then, it just hasn't been trained on things after that. So, if you wanted to have a conversation about something that happened after that, it would need to go out and retrieve the information that it needed. For us in HCM, what that means is taking the large language model that you get with Oracle, and using retrieval to augment the AI generation for the things that the large language model wouldn't have had. 11:22 Nikita: So, things that happened after the model was trained? Company-specific data? What kind of augmenting are you talking about? Jeff: It's all of that. All those things happen and it's anything that might be useful, but it's outside the LLM's existing scope. So, let's do an example. Let's say you and Lois are in the market to hire someone. You're looking for a Junior Podcast Assistant. We'd like the AI in HCM to help, and in order to do that, it would be great if it could not just generate a generic job description for the posting, but it could really make it specific to Oracle. Even better, to Oracle University. So, you'd need the AI to know a few more things in order to make that happen. If it knows the job level, and the department, and the organization—already the job posting description gets a lot better. So what other things do you think it might need to know? 12:13 Lois: Umm I'm thinking…does it need to account for our previous hiring decisions? Can it inform that at all? Jeff: Yes! That's actually a key one. If the AI is aware not only of all the vacancies and all of the transactional stuff that goes along with it (like you know who posted it, what's its metadata, what business group it was in, and all that stuff)...but it also knows who we hired, that's huge. So if we put all that together, we can start doing the really cool stuff—like suggesting candidates based not only on their apparent match on skills and qualifications, but also based on folks that we've hired for similar positions. We know how long it took to make those hires from requisition open to the employee's first start date. So we can also do things like predicting time to hire for each vacancy we have with a lot more accuracy. So now all of a sudden, we're not just doing recruiting, but we have a system that accounts for “how we do it around here,” if that makes any sense. But the point is, it's the augmented data, it's that kind of training that we do throughout ingestion, going out to other sources for newer or better information, whatever it is we need. The ability to include it alongside everything that's already in the LLM, that's a huge deal. 13:31 Nikita: Ok, so I think the only one we didn't get to was Agents. Jeff: Yeah, so this one is maybe a little less relevant in HCM—for now anyway. But it's something to keep an eye on. Because remember earlier when I described our AI as having a great big brain but no hands? Lois: Yeah... Jeff: Well, agents are a way of giving it hands. At least for a very well-defined, limited set of purposes. So routine and repetitive tasks. And for obvious reasons, in the HCM space, that causes some concerns. You don't want, for example, your AI moving people forward in the recruiting process or changing their status to “not considered” all by itself. So going forward, this is going to be a balancing act. When we ask the same thing of the AI over and over again, there comes a point where it makes sense to kind of “save” that ask. When, for example, we get the “compare a candidate profile to a job vacancy” results and we got it working just right, we can create an agent. And just that one AI call that specializes in getting that analysis right. It does the analysis, it hands it back to the LLM, and when the human has had what they need to make sure they get what they need to make a decision out of it, you've got automation on one hand and human hands on the other...hand. 14:56 Have you mastered the basics of AI? Are you ready to take your skills to the next level? Unlock the potential of advanced AI with our OCI Generative AI Professional course and certification that covers topics like large language models, the OCI Generative AI Service, and building Q&A chatbots for real-world applications. Head over to mylearn.oracle.com to find out more. 15:26 Nikita: Welcome back! Jeff, you've mentioned the “Time to Hire” feature a few times? Is that a favorite with people who take your classes? Jeff: The recruiting folks definitely seem to enjoy it, but I think it's just a great example for a couple of reasons. First, it's really powerful non-generative AI. So it helps emphasize the point around the right AI for the right job. And if we're talking about things in chronological order, it's something that shows up really early in the hire-to-retire cycle. And, you know, just between us learning nerds, I like to use Time to Hire as an early example because it gets folks in the habit of working through some use cases. You don't really know if a feature is going to get you what you need until you've done some of that. So, for example, if I tell you that Time to Hire produces an estimated number of days to your first hire. And you're still Lois, and you're still Niki, and you're hiring for a Junior Podcast Assistant. So why do you care about time to hire? And I'm asking you for real—What would you do with that prediction if you had it? 16:29 Nikita: I guess I'd know how long it is before I can expect help to arrive, and I could plan my work accordingly. Jeff: Absolutely. What else. What could you do with a prediction for Time to Hire? Lois: Think about coverage? Jeff: Yeah! Exactly the word I was looking for. Say more about that. Lois: Well, if I know it's gonna be three months before our new assistant starts, I might be able to plan for some temporary coverage for that work. But if I had a prediction that said it's only going to be two weeks before a new hire could start, it probably wouldn't be worth arranging temporary coverage. Niki can hold things down for a couple of weeks. Jeff: See, I'm positive she could! That's absolutely perfect! And I think that's all you really need to have in terms of prerequisites to understand any of the AI features in HCM. When you know what you might want to do with it, like predicting the need for temp cover, and you've got everything we talked about in the foundation part of the course—the Gen and the Classic, all that stuff, you can look at a feature like Time to Hire and then you can probably pick that up in 30 seconds. 17:29 Nikita: Can we try it? Jeff: Sure! I mean, you know, we're not looking at screens for this conversation, but we can absolutely try it. You're a recruiter. If I tell you that Time to Hire is a feature that you run into on the job requisition and it shows you just a few editable fields, and then of course, the prediction of the number of days to hire—tell me how you think that feature is going to work when you get there. Lois: So, what are the fields? And does it matter? Jeff: Probably not really, but of course you can ask. So, let me tell you. Ready? The fields—they are these. Requisition Title, Location, and Education Level. Nikita: Ok, well, I have to assume that as I change those things… like from a Junior Podcast Assistant to a Senior Podcast Assistant, or change the location from Redwood Shores to Detroit, or change the required education, the time to hire is going to change, right? Jeff: 100%, exactly. And it does it in real time as you make those changes to those values. So when you pick a new location, you immediately get a new number of days, so it really is a useful tool. But how does it work? Well, we know it's using a few fields from the job requisition, but that's not enough. Besides those fields, what else would you need in order to make this prediction work? 18:43 Lois: The part where it translates to a number of days. So, this is based on our historic hiring data? How long it took us to hire a podcast assistant the last time? Jeff: Yep! And now you have everything you need. We call that “historic data from our company” bit “ingestion,” by the way. And there's always a really interesting discussion around that when it comes up in the course. But it's the process we use to bring in the HCM data to the AI so it can be considered or predictions exactly like this. Lois: So it's the HCM data making the AI smarter and more powerful. Nikita: And tailored. Jeff: Exactly, it's all of that. And obviously, the HCM is better because we've given it the AI. But the AI is also better because it has the HCM in it. But look, I was able to give you a quick description of Time to Hire, and you were able to tell me what it does, which data it uses, and how it works in just a few seconds. So, that's kind of the goal when we teach this stuff. It's getting everybody ready to be productive from moment #1 because what is it and how does it work stuff is already out of the way, you know? 19:52 Lois: I do know! Nikita: Can we try it with another one? Jeff: Sure! How about we do...Suggested Candidates. Lois: And you're going to tell us what we get on the screen, and we have to tell you how it works, right? Jeff: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Ok—Suggested Candidates. You're a recruiter or a hiring manager. You guys are still looking for your Junior Podcast Assistant. On the requisition, you've got a section called Suggested Candidates. And you see the candidate's name and some scores. Those scores are for profile match, skills match, experience match. And there's also an overall match score, and the highest rated people you notice are sorted to the top of the list. So, you with me so far? Lois: Yes! Jeff: So you already know that it's suggesting candidates. But if you care about explainability and transparency like we talked about at the start, then you also care about where these suggested candidates came from. So let's see if we can make progress against that. Let's think about those match scores. What would you need in order to come up with match scores like that? 20:54 Nikita: Tell me if I'm oversimplifying this, but everything about the job on the requisition, and everything about the candidate? Their skills and experience? Jeff: Yeah, that's actually simplified pretty perfectly. So in HCM, the candidate profile has their skills and experience, and the req profile has the req requirements. Lois: So we're comparing the elements of the job profile and the person/candidate profile. And they're weighted, I assume? Jeff: That's exactly how it works. See, 30 seconds and you guys are nailing these! In fairness, when we discuss these things in the course, we go into more detail. And I think it's helpful for HCM practitioners to know which data from the person and the job profiles is being considered (and sometimes just as important, which is not being considered). And don't forget we're also considering our ingested data. Our previously selected candidates. 21:45 Lois: Jeff, can I change the weighting? If I care more about skills than experience or education, can I adjust the weighting and have it re-sort the candidates? Jeff: Super important question. So let me give you the answer first, which is “no.” But because it's important, I want to tell you more. This is a discussion we have in the class around Oracle's Embedded vs. Custom AI. And they're both really important offerings. With Embedded, what we're talking about are the features that come in HCM like any other feature. They might have some enablement steps like profile options, and there's an activation panel. But essentially, that's it. There's no inspection panel for you to open up and start sticking your screwdriver in there and making changes. Believe it or not, that's a big advantage with Embedded AI, if you ask me anyway. Nikita: It's an advantage to not be able to configure it? Jeff: In this context, I think you can say that it is. You know, we talk about the advantages about the baked-in, Embedded AI in this course, but one of the key things is that it's pre-built and pre-tested. And the big one: that it's ready to use on day one. But one little change in a prompt can have a pretty big butterfly effect across all of your results. So, Oracle provides the Embedded AI because we know it works because we've already tested it, and it's, therefore, ready on day one. And I think that story maybe changes a little bit when you open up the inspection panel and bust out that screwdriver. Now you're signing up to be a test pilot. And that's just fundamentally different than “pre-built and ready on day one.” Not that it's bad to want configuration. 23:24 Lois: That's what the Custom AI path and OCI are about though, right? For when customers have hyper-specific needs outside of Oracle's business processes within the apps, or for when that kind of tuning is really required. And your AI for HCM course—that focuses on the Embedded AI instead of Custom, yes? Jeff: That is exactly it, yes. Nikita: You said there are about 30 of these AI features across HCM. So, when you teach the course, do you go through all of them or are there favorites? Ones that people want to spend more time on so you focus on those? Jeff: The professional part of me wants to tell you that we do try to cover all of them, because that explainability and transparency business we talked about at the beginning. That's for real, so I want our customers to have that for the whole scope. 24:12 Nikita: The professional part? What's the other part? Jeff: I guess that's the part that says sure, we need to hit all of them. But some of them are just inherently more fun to work on. So, it's usually the learners who drive that in the live classes when they get into something, that's where we spend the most time. So, I have my favorites too. The learners have their favorites. And we spend time where it's everybody's favorite. Lois: Like where? Jeff: Ok, so one is far from the most complex one, but I think it's really elegant in its simplicity. And it's the Celebrate feature, where we do employee recognition. There's an AI Assist available there. So when it's time to recognize a colleague, you just need to enter the headline or the title, and the AI takes it from there and just writes up the recognition. 24:56 Lois: What about that makes it a good example, Jeff? You said it's elegant. What do you mean? Jeff: I think it's a few things. So, start with the prompt. It's just the one line—just the headline. And that's your one input. So, type in the headline, get the recognition below. It's a great demonstration of not just the simplicity, but the power we get out of that simplicity. I always ask it to recognize my employees for implementing AI features in Oracle HCM, just to see what it comes up with. When it tells the employee that they're helping the company by automating routine tasks, bringing efficiency to the HR department, and then launches into specific examples of how AI features help in HCM, it really is pretty incredible. So, it's a simple demo, but it explains a lot about how the Gen AI works. Lois: That's really cool. 25:45 Nikita: So this one is generative AI. It's using the large language model to create the recognition based on the prompt, which is basically just whatever you entered in the headline. But how does that help explain how Gen AI works in HCM? Jeff: Well, let's take our simple prompt for example. There's a lot happening behind the scenes. It's taking our prompt, it's doing its LLM thing, but before it's done, it's creating the results in a very specific way. An employee recognition reads really differently than a job description. So, I usually describe this as the hidden part of our prompt. The visible part is what we typed. But it needs to know things like our desired output format. Make sure to use the person's name, summarize the benefits, and be sure to thank them for their contribution, that kind of stuff. So, those things are essentially hard-coded into the page. And that's to say, this is another area where we don't get an inspection panel that lets us go in and tweak the prompt. 26:42 Nikita: And that's generally how generative AI works? Jeff: Pretty much. Wherever you see an AI Assist button in HCM, that's more or less what's going on. And so when you get to some of the other more complex features, it's helpful to know that that is what's going on. Lois: Like where? Jeff: Well, it works that way for the About Me part of your employee profile, for goal creation in performance, and I think a really great example is in performance, where managers are providing the competency development tips. So the prompt there is a little more complex there because it involves the employee's proficiency rating instead of free text. But still, pretty straightforward. You're gonna click AI Assist and it's gonna generate all the development tips for any specific competency listed for that employee. Good development tips. Five of them. Nicely formatted with bullet points. And these aren't random words assembled by an AI. So they conform to best practices in the development of competencies. So, something is telling the LLM to give us results that are that good, in that particular way. So, it's just another good example of the work AI is doing while protected behind the inspection panel that doesn't exist. So, the coding of that page, in combination with what the LLM generates and the agent that it uses, is what produces the result. That's generally the approach. In the class, we always have a good time digging into what must be going on behind that inspection panel. Generally speaking, the better feel we have for what's going on on these pages, the better we're able to get the results we want, even without having that screwdriver out. 28:21 Nikita: So it's time well-spent, looking at all the individual features? Jeff: I think so, especially if you're anticipating really using any of them. So, the good news is, once you learn a few of them and how they work, and what they're best at, you stop being surprised after a while. But there are always tips and tricks. And like we talked about at the top, explainability and transparency are absolutely key. So, as much as I'm not a fan of the phrase, I do think this is kind of a “knowledge is power” kind of situation. 28:51 Nikita: Sadly, we're just about out of time for this episode. Lois: That's too bad, I was really enjoying this. Jeff, you were just talking about knowledge—where can we get more? Jeff: Well, like you mentioned at the start, check out the AI in HCM course on MyLearn. It's about an hour and a half, but it really is time well spent. And we get into detail on everything the three of us discussed here today, and then we have demoscussions of every feature where we show them and how they work and which data they're using and a whole bunch more. So, there's that. Plus, I hear the instructor is excellent. Lois: I can vouch for that! Jeff: Well, then you should definitely look into Dynamic Skills. Different instructor. But we have another course, and again I think about an hour and a half, but when you're done with the AI course, I always feel like Dynamic Skills is where you really wanna go next to really flesh out all the Talent Management ideas that got stirred up while you were having a great time in the AI course. And then finally, the live classes. It's always really fun to take live questions while we talk about AI in HCM. 29:54 Nikita: Thanks, Jeff! This has been really interesting. Lois: Yeah, thanks for being here, Jeff. We've loved having you on. Jeff: Thank you guys so much for having me. It's been a pleasure. Lois: If you want to learn more about what we discussed, go to the show notes for today's episode. You'll find links to the AI for Human Capital Management and Dynamic Skills courses that Jeff mentioned so you can check them out. You can also head over to mylearn.oracle.com to find the live sessions for MyLearn subscribers that Jeff conducts. Nikita: Join us next week as we kick off our “Best of 2024” season, where we'll be revisiting some of our most popular episodes of the year. Until then, this is Nikita Abraham… Lois: And Lois Houston, signing off! 30:35 That's all for this episode of the Oracle University Podcast. If you enjoyed listening, please click Subscribe to get all the latest episodes. We'd also love it if you would take a moment to rate and review us on your podcast app. See you again on the next episode of the Oracle University Podcast.
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Nov. 14, 2024 | Global Data's Jeff Schuster; NHTSA issues large penalty against Ford by Automotive News
The Automotive Troublemaker w/ Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier
It's a magical fifth Friday before a fifth Saturday and we're ready to roll as we talk about the anticipated strong end to the month. We're also covering the latest M&A report from the Presidio Group, as well as checking in on our old friend, the Costco Hot dog, Soda Combo. March is on track to be a standout month in auto sales, the strongest in three years, with sales volumes expected to exceed 1.4 million vehicles. This surge is fueled by higher incentives and increased inventories, keeping consumer interest high as the spring selling season kicks off.Sales volumes are estimated to surpass 1.4 million vehicles in March, a 5-6% increase from last yearQuarterly sales are expected to hit 3.76 million, up 5.5% year-over-year"Consumers are still shelling out cash for new vehicles," says Jeff Schuster from GlobalData, highlighting the impact of inventory availability and incentives on mitigating price increases.Mixed results are anticipated across automakers due to inventory challenges faced by Japanese brands last year. Toyota, Honda, and Mazda may see 14-22% gains, whereas Stellantis, GM, and Hyundai could face losses.Average transaction prices fell to $47,244 in March, a 2% decrease from last year, with electric vehicle days' supply dropping significantly from 159 to 114According to a new report by M&A firm, The Presidio Group, Dealership values are experiencing a noticeable adjustment as vehicle supplies rise, and profit margins begin to normalize post-pandemic. The market demands increased operational efficiency to sustain profitability.Strategic Insights on Profitability: With a 20.4% decline in net pretax profit across the board in 2023, dealers are encouraged to focus on operational efficiencies, customer experience, and innovation in dealership management to navigate the changing tides.The latest Presidio Dealer Direction Survey reveals a pragmatic outlook among dealers. While recognizing the challenge of declining profitability, dealers also see opportunities for growth and acquisition, reflecting a resilient and forward-looking industry mindset.Even though dealers are in agreement that profits will continue to drop over the next 12 months, they are still optimistic on the reality that profitability is staying above pre-pandemic norms as the average dealership's net pretax profit last year was still more than 2.5 times 2018's level, according to a Presidio analysisIn this world where inflation nudges prices upward across the board, we must ask, “Where is the pricing on Costco hot dogs going?” Nowhere. Costco leaders say the company is holding its famous hot dog-soda combo at the remarkably stable price of $1.50. As the company continues to defy inflation, the combo would cost $4.50 at this point if adjustedSpeaking about the $1.50 price of the hot dog deal in a recent interview, Richard Galanti, Costco's long-standing finance chief who retired this month, said it was “probably safe for a while.”Last year the company sold over 130M hot dog combosHosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle MountsierGet the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/ Read our most recent email at: https://www.asotu.com/media/push-back-email
The Automotive Troublemaker w/ Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier
Big shifts are everywhere on this day before the leap year day as Apple cuts the bait on the AppleCar, BYD has announced they will not be pursuing the US market, and Jag-Land Rover are ditching their agency model plans. CarPlay may be the best iPhone users can hope for in their car as Apple is officially shutting down its EV program Project Titan, reallocating resources to developing its AI capabilities. Billions invested and numerous strategy shifts later, Apple acknowledges the complex challenges of the automotive sector, choosing to focus on its strengths in AI.Some developers from the car project are transitioning to AI roles, while those who work on hardware will likely be facing layoffs"Apple canceling this project is a sigh of relief for us," shares Dan Morgan from Synovus Trust, highlighting the challenging fit of automotive projects within Apple's portfolio.Jeff Schuster, global vice president of automotive research at consultant GlobalData said “They (Apple) certainly had the most downside,” he said. “Tesla benefits big time from being a status vehicle. And an Apple EV definitely would be a status vehicle.”Elon Musk on Tuesday sent a post on X with a saluting emoji and a cigarette.Chinese EV maker BYD has decided against launching its electric vehicles in the US, citing the market's complexity and political entanglements as major deterrents as the company's focus turns to strengthening its presence in Mexico with a new manufacturing facility.Stella Li, BYD Americas' CEO, highlights the US EV market's intricate landscape, discouraging the Chinese automaker's entry.Li criticizes the US's slower electrification pace and the confusing political climate, contrasting sharply with China's robust EV adoption and clear policies."If you are not investing for electric car, you are out. You will die. You have no future," Li asserts, emphasizing the stark difference in EV market dynamics between the US and China.In the first of possibly many about-faces, Jaguar Land Rover is abandoning its agency model plans in the UK as it opts to maintain its traditional franchised sales model amidst retail partner consultations.JLR is backing away from its fixed-price, no-haggle sales strategy, opting instead to stick with its current dealership model rather than moving to direct sales.Influenced by feedback from partners, JLR's decision is showcasing its commitment to a "client-centric retail experience" while maintaining the foundation of the franchise model."The franchise model is a tried and trusted model," Darren Edwards, CEO of Sytner Group, is stating, applauding JLR's flexibility and its response to the evolving market dynamics.Hosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle MountsierGet the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/ Read our most recent email at: https://www.asotu.com/media/push-back-email ASOTU Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/automotivestateoftheunion
TOPIC: Vehicle Affordability; PANEL: Kristin Dziczek, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Jeff Schuster, LMC Automotive; Gary Vasilash, on Automotive; John McElroy, Autoline.tv
October 25, 2022 | GM's record revenue in Q3; LMC Automotive's Jeff Schuster by Automotive News
Executive Editor Jamie Butters gives you the top headlines and talks about how a lack of inventory, inflation and rising interest rates are squeezing some buyers out of the new- and used-car markets with Jeff Schuster, president of global forecasting for LMC Automotive.
This might not be the best time to buy a vehicle – can you even find one to buy. We talked today about how you can extend the life of the vehicle you've got. This is a summary of our Thursday 10aC live show.Jeff Schuster, president of the Americas operation and global vehicle forecasting at LMC Automotive said the chip shortage should ease this year, though they project it will likely take all of 2022 and maybe a portion of '23 for things to start getting back to normal. Intel Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger told the website CNET the same thing. So, if we won't have a steady supply of vehicles until 2023 it would behoove us to take care of the vehicles we've got. https://www.cnet.com/tech/computing/global-chip-shortage-gives-us-manufacturing-a-boost/#:~:text=Intel%20Chief%20Executive%20Pat%20Gelsinger,decades%2C%20but%20not%20like%20this. https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/features/automotive-cars-computer-chip-shortage-2022/Recall: 2015-17 Ford Mustangs Recalled for Faulty Backup Camera The rearview camera wiring may be loose or damaged, which can result in a blank or distorted image. In addition to violating a federal mandate, a rearview camera that displays a blank or distorted image can reduce the driver's rear view and increase the risk of a crash. Dealers will inspect and repair the deck lid wiring harness and replace the rearview camera, as necessary, for free. Owners will first receive an interim letter notifying them of the safety risk beginning March 7; a second letter will be sent once a fix is available. Further questions can be directed to Ford at 866-436-7332 (Ford's number for this recall is 22S06), the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's vehicle-safety hotline at 888-327-4236.You can find out if your car has a past recall by going to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's website: https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls and inputting your VIN number. Or find their SaferCar app.In the news: States are getting the go-ahead to build a nationwide network of electric vehicle charging stations that would place new or upgraded ones every 50 miles along interstate highways as part of the Biden administration's plan to spur widespread adoption of the zero-emission cars. https://www.wdbj7.com/2022/02/10/states-get-go-ahead-build-electric-car-charging-stations/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wdbjAuto Casey: BMW X3 Short video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyaIch4IFEg Long Version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbxWlLQYXf4Coach Charlie's Tip of the Week: check your belts and hoses for wear and cracks See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Jeff Schuster is the Founder and owner of Mechanics & Mindset Business Coaching, and also the author of Business Mechanics & Mindset - How Your Thoughts Create or Sabotage Your Business Success. In a previous chapter of life, Jeff founded and grew an energy services company called Ennovate.We discuss Jeff's business journey with emphasis on key moments that empowered the growth of the company to over 30 employees, and we spend some time on the sale process and his later decision to get into business coaching. Jeff is a Core Energy Coach, and helps entrepreneurs - especially those in the engineering and energy sectors - identify their challenge points both individually and on an enterprise level. Jeff shares freely about how he helps clients shift their thinking to shift their business results, and along the way we talk of the importance of family, and how sometimes closed doors are a blessing.
Jeff Schuster, president of global vehicle forecasting at LMC Automotive, provides his outlook for new-vehicle sales in 2022 and explains why shoppers are being 'trained' for build-to-order programs.
The Best Mindset In Business with Jeff Schuster Jeff Schuster Business Coach and founder of Mechanics & Mindset Business Coaching with over 30-years' experience in the field of energy efficiency, energy conservation, performance contracting and renewable energy, he brings a wealth of experience to help CEO's of Energy Service Companies (ESCo's) overcome the challenges of acquiring customers, building bigger projects, utility rebates, government regulations and managing a diverse staff to achieve growth and profitability. In this episode you will learn: - Why it is important to understand the impact of your thoughts and feelings on your business and life - How you can get stuck in your head and burn yourself out - What it means to see your business objectively - Why your greatest value is as a business owner may surprise you Connect with Jeff here: Website: https://www.mmbizcoach.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/schusterjl/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mmbizcoach Instagram: @mmbizcoach
Episode Summary - As a business owner, you have many responsibilities. Often, you don't realize you are burned out. The stress can affect your health, business, and life. A role of a coach is very important to grow your business. It is the coach who can guide you in realizing the problems and help you find solutions. In this episode, we discuss the importance of a coach in your business growth and how they can help you grow. Key Points: 6:18 - Jeff shares his coaching process on how he helps his clients overcome stress and achieve the desired outcome. 9:21 - What are the 8 areas of a business that are key for your business growth? 14:31 - Jeff shares his client's success story on how he helped his client achieve the desired result. 23:34 - Which type of business owner needs coaching the most and why? 24:21 - What is that one thing you need to avoid to grow your business. Name of the Guest - Jeff Schuster About the Guest - Jeff is an engineer by training, spent decades in sales, and eventually started, grew, and sold his own energy services company that served the Rocky Mountain Region. His company grew to 30-employees with revenues of over $10-Million dollars per year. After selling his business to a publicly traded energy services company, Jeff became a regional Vice President of that company. After a few years in this role, Jeff self-diagnosed himself as "burned out". He was tired and wanted a break and resigned. After a few months of catching up around the house, Jeff decided he wanted to go back to work as a small business consultant. A friend convinced him to get his life coaching certification. For the past six years, Jeff has mixed his Core Energy life coaching skills with his business expertise into his coaching practice called "Mechanics & Mindset Business Coaching". He primarily coaches energy service company CEO's on how to grow their business, while they live full lives to avoid the burnout he experienced in this same industry. Social Links to Follow Jeff Schuster: Website - http://www.mmbizcoach.com Facebook Profile - https://www.facebook.com/mmbizcoach LinkedIn Profile - https://www.linkedin.com/in/schusterjl/ Offer - A free 1-hour Discovery Session with Jeff Schuster. The session allows business owners to share their hopes and dreams and get genuine feedback on ideas that may help. At the end, Jeff often recommends solutions, some of which may include a coaching relationship with him. The link to schedule this Discovery Session is: https://app.acuityscheduling.com/schedule.php?owner=13780663&appointmentType=4766537 About the Host: Ann Carden is a highly sought-after Expert Business Growth Consultant, Marketing Strategist, three-time published Author, and a #1 Bestselling Author, and Professional Speaker for small businesses and entrepreneurs. With more than forty-one years of business experience and coaching and consulting hundreds of coaches, entrepreneur's and owners in more than forty different industries to more success, Ann knows what it takes to succeed in all areas of business. After spending thirteen years in corporate business management, Ann started her journey as an entrepreneur building businesses for herself for twenty-nine years. Her first business started out of financial hardship and Ann was able to propel that business into the international market (before the internet.) After selling that business, she went on to start and build five more businesses to succeed. She has sold those businesses and today has a passion for helping small business owners and entrepreneurs build their success. She has been featured on the affiliates of ABC, NBC, CW, and FOX, among many other media outlets. Her articles have been published on Small Business Trendsetters and Business Innovators Magazine, and she has been a featured guest on multiple podcast shows such as; “Business Innovators Radio” podcast which can be heard at: BusinessInnovatorsRadio.com/Ann-Carden. She was also chosen as one of the top coaches in the world by Six-Figure Coach Magazine. Through the years Ann has educated thousands of professionals through speaking, workshops, seminars, and online platforms as a Speaker. Social Links: Website: https://anncardencoaching.com Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/business-consultant-coach Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/anncarden Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Ann-Carden-A-Carden-Inc-110882230558068/
Automotive Insiders is presented by OESA, the Original Equipment Suppliers Association. Industry experts discuss Automotive hot topics to keep the Automotive Supplier Community up to date on the fast-changing mobility landscape. From post-pandemic manufacturing restart planning and worker safety measures, to legal issues and supply chain disruptions, Automotive Insiders is your source of timely and relevant content. Host Bonnie D. Graham welcomes back Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operations and Global Vehicle Forecasts at LMC Automotive. Jeff revisits and updates his May 2025 assessment of the automotive market environment, electrification and other trends, and outlook for the US and global automotive industries. In May, Jeff expected LV sales to improve by 13% to 88 million units in 2021. He has since downscaled that figure to 11% growth and 86.7 million units this year, due to ongoing recovery disruptions and risks. From his earlier projection that BEVs would expand from 1.5% of sales in 2020 to 6% by 2024, Jeff now expects that figure to reach nearly 10% by 2024. He continues to see increased workplace flexibility and new technology coming into vehicles attracting workforce talent that hadn't previously considered automotive. Listen on-demand to hear more of Jeff Schuster's astute insights. More info: https://OESA.org
Automotive Insiders is presented by OESA, the Original Equipment Suppliers Association. Industry experts keep the Automotive Supplier Community up to date on the fast-changing mobility landscape. From post-pandemic manufacturing, restart planning and worker safety measures, to legal issues and supply chain disruptions, Automotive Insiders is your source of timely, relevant content. Host Bonnie D. Graham welcomes David Johnson, OESA's senior director of operations and events. David discusses how OESA is transitioning to hybrid event programing, to give suppliers and industry partners the opportunity to engage where they are, virtually or in person. He stresses the value of attending OESA programs. “Bringing a few nuggets of information back to the office from an OESA event subject matter expert can have monumental impacts on an organization. And the opportunity to network with peers creates an invaluable community that successful suppliers have utilized to great success.” David's big news: OESA is bringing back the Automotive Supplier Conference on Monday, November 8 at the Suburban Collection Showplace in Novi, MI. This year's program will feature keynote speaker Daniel Pink, author of Drive and other bestselling business books. Sessions will feature senior executives from Ford, VW, Nissan, plus the much-anticipated annual Outlook Panel featuring Jeff Schuster from LMC and John Murphy from Bank of American Merrill Lynch. The conference will schedule significant time for networking including a post-event reception to bring the supplier community together. More info: https://OESA.org
We talk with Jeff Schuster of LMC Automotive about why small pickups could be the next big thing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Automotive Insiders is presented by OESA, the Original Equipment Suppliers Association. Industry experts discuss Automotive hot topics to keep the Automotive Supplier Community up to date on the fast-changing mobility landscape. From post-pandemic manufacturing restart planning and worker safety measures, to legal issues and supply chain disruptions, Automotive Insiders is your source of timely and relevant content. Host Bonnie D. Graham welcomes Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operations and Global Vehicle Forecasts at LMC Automotive. Jeff Schuster observes that despite higher material prices and chip shortages in the current automotive market environment, sales are booming in the US and slowly improving in Europe, but at risk in India. On electrification and other trends, Jeff says BEVs volume is expected to gradually increase as prices come down and the infrastructure improves. Looking ahead, he sees more flexibility combined with new technology in vehicles, which could attract new talent who didn't previously consider automotive. He also predicts the industry can run leaner than previously thought. Listen on-demand to hear more of Jeff Schuster's astute insights. For more information: oesa.org
Carmakers are taking a hard look at the features on their vehicles, and how many computer chips they use. Fewer chips per vehicle, means more vehicles that can be made. We talk with analyst Jeff Schuster of LMC Automotive. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jeff Schuster and Karl Brauer join a panel on the state of the U.S. and global auto industry. They discuss headwinds that face the industry, as well as the perception of a renewed level of optimism and how each have affected new and used car sales.
Ford will be the first of the "Detroit Three" to release its earnings report this Thursday. GM has set the 10th, no word yet from the former FCA, now Stellantis. What will we see, after a very unusual year? We turn to LMC Automotive's Jeff Schuster. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jeff Schuster of auto forecaster LMC Automotive says restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19 will likely hurt December sales while inventory woes could linger into the first quarter. But, with a vaccine on the way, he says there's hope for the spring selling season.
I recently jammed with very intelligent Jeff Schuster. We discussed automotive inventory levels for 2021, having fluid business plans, and what the future forecast is for the automotive industry. Jeff has 20+ years of experience tracking, analyzing and forecasting vehicle sales and production volumes, as well as industry trends in powertrain, segmentation and future vehicles This is a must watch or listen if you and your team are working on your business plans for 2021. #automotive #automotive #automotiveindustry #carsales #cardealers #cars #cardealerships #automotivemarketing #cardealership #automobile #auto Jason Harris - Continue the conversation: Instagram - Instagram.com/strategywithjason/ Facebook - facebook.com/StrategyWithJason/ LinkedIn - linkedin.com/in/strategywithjason/ Twitter - twitter.com/StratWJason www.StrategyWithJason.com www.ddsolutions.ca www.bell2bell.ca (Get your closers coffee here!)
LMC Automotive's Jeff Schuster says the firm is forecasting 15.7 million U.S. light-vehicle sales next year and fewer pandemic-related disruptions. He also believes the used-vehicle market will remain a key part of the industry's rebound.
(0:00:00) Teaching Kids LiteracyFor young kids, learning to read can be about as fun as eating vegetables. New words, long sentences, and a lack of pictures can make the process intimidating. On top of that, now that most schools are out, motivating your little ones to practice reading can prove even more difficult. Reid DeSpiegelaere shares about Vello, a non-profit dedicated to setting up young children with 1-on-1 reading tutors. (0:13:34) Tree Climbing Champion When you think of climbing trees, what images come to mind? Lazy summer afternoons? Kids scrambling around and swinging from tree branches? For professional arborists, tree climbing is an entirely different story. Jackson Chandler is an ISA-certified arborist and national tree-climbing champion. He owns and operates a tree-care company, "Arbor Ascent," and joins us to talk about the ISA tree-climbing competition, as well as give tips on how we can better care for our trees. (0:32:26) COVID Aftermath: Should I Buy a Car? Buying a car has many implications, especially in today's world. How has the pandemic affected prices? Is now the right time to make such a big purchase? Jeff Schuster, president of America's Operations and Global Vehicle Forecasts at LMC Automotive answers any and all questions regarding buying a car post-COVID-19. (0:52:24) Summer Catch-Up With school being held remotely over the last few months, many parents are worried about their kids being prepared and on track for the coming school year. Emily Bauman, an elementary school teacher and co-founder of Write On! gives tips on helping your kids practice reading and writing this summer in order to be ready for the fall. (1:08:22) Music IsolationHave you discovered new music during quarantine? For some of us, music is the one thing tehtering us to reality and helping us keep perspective during this time. As you consider these past few months, how has music personally strengthened you and your family? Dr. Massimilano Frani, founder of Genote Lab, an app that uses music for stress and sleep management shares the benefits of music to relieve stress. (1:28:50) Reconnecting with CommunityThe beauty of isolation is the value we recognize in relationships and community. As we see certain parts of the country re-open, our excitement for normalcy rises. We're excited to dine-in at local restaurants, go to the movie theatre, and even arrive to work in full business attire. But most of all, we are excited to see friends, family and acquaintances again. John Sovec shares how we can reconnect with our various communities, and how that will benefit our well-being.
February 25, 2019: We talk with LMC Automotive analyst Jeff Schuster about trends we are seeing, so far, in February. Carmakers--other than Ford and GM--release their February sales numbers on Friday, March 1st.
December 6, 2018: Fiat Chrysler is expected to announce soon that it's converting the closed part of its Mack Engine Plant into a small assembly plant, to build 3-row Jeep Grand Cherokees. The company isn't comenting. We talked about it with LMC Automotive analyst Jeff Schuster.
- Jeff Schuster, Senior Vice-President at LMC Automotive - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
Auto sales in America have recently been on a tear. In fact, some suggest the SAAR might actually challenge those heady days of 18 million units. Enter AlixPartners whose newest study indicates that U.S. sales may have already peaked. Joining host John McElroy to discuss this topic and more are Mark Wakefield from AlixPartners, Charles Chesbrough from IHS as well as Jeff Schuster from LMC Automotive.
Auto sales in America have recently been on a tear. In fact, some suggest the SAAR might actually challenge those heady days of 18 million units. Enter AlixPartners whose newest study indicates that U.S. sales may have already peaked. Joining host John McElroy to discuss this topic and more are Mark Wakefield from AlixPartners, Charles Chesbrough from IHS as well as Jeff Schuster from LMC Automotive.
Down the Road With the auto industry as volatile as ever, it pays to have a good analyst to keep an eye where it might be heading. Well, this week Autoline has invited three of the best in the business to discuss the issues driving the industry. Joining John McElroy is Jessica Caldwell from Edmunds, IHS Automotive’s Michael Robinet and Jeff Schuster of J.D. Power and Associates. The group talks about a variety of issues including, slowing car sales, the impact of alternative vehicles and Asia’s continuing affect on the global industry.
Down the RoadWith the auto industry as volatile as ever, it pays to have a good analyst to keep an eye where it might be heading. Well, this week Autoline has invited three of the best in the business to discuss the issues driving the industry. Joining John McElroy is Jessica Caldwell from Edmunds, IHS Automotive’s Michael Robinet and Jeff Schuster of J.D. Power and Associates. The group talks about a variety of issues including, slowing car sales, the impact of alternative vehicles and Asia’s continuing affect on the global industry.
Down the Road With the auto industry as volatile as ever, it pays to have a good analyst to keep an eye where it might be heading. Well, this week Autoline has invited three of the best in the business to discuss the issues driving the industry. Joining John McElroy is Jessica Caldwell from Edmunds, IHS Automotive’s Michael Robinet and Jeff Schuster of J.D. Power and Associates. The group talks about a variety of issues including, slowing car sales, the impact of alternative vehicles and Asia’s continuing affect on the global industry.
Down the RoadWith the auto industry as volatile as ever, it pays to have a good analyst to keep an eye where it might be heading. Well, this week Autoline has invited three of the best in the business to discuss the issues driving the industry. Joining John McElroy is Jessica Caldwell from Edmunds, IHS Automotive’s Michael Robinet and Jeff Schuster of J.D. Power and Associates. The group talks about a variety of issues including, slowing car sales, the impact of alternative vehicles and Asia’s continuing affect on the global industry.
The true value of todays smart products and services is often derived from the successful combination of diverse technologies in a complex system-of-systems - where no single organization is responsible for all parts of the system. Join IBM expert Jeff Schuster, to learn how IBM Rational quality management solutions integrate quality management in to the systems development lifecycle and enable a requirements-driven, risk-based approach to systems quality.