Podcast appearances and mentions of john hussman

Roger Bresnahan was one of the biggest stars in the game; playing in the biggest city in the country.  Since his death in 1943, the Hall of Famer has had his celebrity diminished greatly.  John Hussman is trying to change all that, and raise awareness of the greatness of this Irish-American ballplayer.

In this episode, Robert delves into a little-known hedge fund manager named Dr. John Hussman and how he successfully predicted the peak of the Dot Com Bubble in 2000. Robert also discusses if it's wise to invest in PayPal (PYPL) along with how the market may react to the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump.

There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top" This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst. But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, these few avoided most of the losses -- and some even gained mightily from those crashes, having been positioned wisely in advance. Today's guest is one of those who smartly navigated the past 2 great market corrections. He now thinks we stand at the precipice of a 3rd -- and he's ringing a bell for anyone who will listen. To hear why and what he advises we do about it, we have the great fortune to speak today with Dr John Hussman, founder of Hussman funds, economist, health scientist and philanthropist. He also plays a mean guitar. John gives interviews very rarely. So it's a true privilege for Thoughtful Money that he's willing to give us the next hour of his time. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Follow John at https://www.hussmanfunds.com or on X/Twitter at @hussmanjp You can read John's recent Market Comment (and see all the charts) at https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240623/ #marketcrash #stockbubble #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In our talk today, Paul and I discuss the fascinating yet alarming surge in market valuations, a trend unseen since the seven weeks of 1929. We delve into John Hussman's recent market commentary and how these high valuations contrast with the longest anticipated, yet unrealized, recession.

Derek Moore explains what it would take interest rate wise for bonds and TLT to get back to breakeven on price. A lot of misunderstanding is out there on buying bonds at the bottom and what that means.  How bonds have different drivers than stocks. Plus, inflation is ticking back up and what that means for the Fed. Finally, a deep dive into TLT components and the math behind what those buying TLT are hoping for.   What would make bonds go back up? Examining TLT iShares 20+ etf components Effective Duration to show how interest rates affect bond etfs and bonds. Math behind movement in bonds What would it take for TLT to get back to breakeven with regard to interest rates? Looking at 30-year treasuries issued in 2020 that are down greater than 50% Inflation ticked back up with CPI year over year reaching 3.7% YoY from its low of 3% What does inflation moving back up mean for the Fed and interest rates? Earnings seasons begins with expectations rising Are earnings still the most important driver of price? Multiple expansion vs earnings falling     Mentioned in this Episode:   Bond Market Collapse https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bond-market-collapse-oil-price-problems-bond-stock/id1432836154?i=1000630742799 Government Shutdowns & Markets | Short ITM Puts Alternative to Covered Calls | Why Hedging Works https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/government-shutdowns-markets-short-itm-puts-alternative/id1432836154?i=1000629813419   John Hussman 12-year forward nominal return estimates chart https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230724/     Cheap vs Expensive Options | Warren Buffett on Options | Fed Powell Presser https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheap-vs-expensive-options-warren-buffett-on-options/id1432836154?i=1000629058900   0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831   Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Berkshire Hathaway meeting discuss using and pricing options https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMkpou-YBGw   Implied Volatility Deep Dive | Real Interest Rate Yields | The Big Short | Tesla vs Nvidia https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/implied-volatility-deep-dive-real-interest-rate-yields/id1432836154?i=1000627400400   GameStop Short Squeeze by the Reddit Wall Street Bets Traders Explained https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-pie-chart/id1432836154?i=1000507187446 The Big Short Movie and Credit Default Swaps Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/6FG0xHkxfhSXEtbJbFbDF6 Margin Call Movie and Understanding Value at Risk https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, observe the destruction in long term treasury bonds due to the reflation of the yield curve. How does the market do with higher rates? What does a flattening yield curve mean for the economy? Bond and Stock correlations mean bonds not protecting portfolios? The Hussman 12-year forward return gauge. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) now only has 17 days of supply left. And by the way, there is still a lot of good news like improving mortality rates around the world. That and more including some recommendations.   How much long-term US Treasury Bonds have dropped from the high The yield curve is getting flatter meaning long rates are rising Cam Harvey's 10/3 yield curve inversion is on the path the un-inverting? How the yield curve un-inverts before recessions Examining a 100-year Austrian bond and how it once was up 250% and now down 40% Stock and bond correlations going closer to 100% Starting interest rates vs. the stock market since 1926 Starting inflation rates vs. the stock market since 1926 Comparing the yield curve today vs. early September John Hussman estimated 12-year annual nominal total returns SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the days left of inventory (it is getting lower) Infant mortality rates continue falling and are at lowest levels back to 400 BC   Mentioned in this Episode:   Government Shutdowns & Markets | Short ITM Puts Alternative to Covered Calls | Why Hedging Works https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/government-shutdowns-markets-short-itm-puts-alternative/id1432836154?i=1000629813419   John Hussman 12-year forward nominal return estimates chart https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230724/     Cheap vs Expensive Options | Warren Buffett on Options | Fed Powell Presser https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheap-vs-expensive-options-warren-buffett-on-options/id1432836154?i=1000629058900   0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831   Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Berkshire Hathaway meeting discuss using and pricing options https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMkpou-YBGw   Implied Volatility Deep Dive | Real Interest Rate Yields | The Big Short | Tesla vs Nvidia https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/implied-volatility-deep-dive-real-interest-rate-yields/id1432836154?i=1000627400400   GameStop Short Squeeze by the Reddit Wall Street Bets Traders Explained https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-pie-chart/id1432836154?i=1000507187446 The Big Short Movie and Credit Default Swaps Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/6FG0xHkxfhSXEtbJbFbDF6 Margin Call Movie and Understanding Value at Risk https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Explore the revolutionary financial vision of Elon Musk as he aims to transform Twitter into a powerhouse. Discover the latest updates on the ratified $UPS labor agreement and brace yourself for insights into the S&P 500's potential 64% crash, as warned by market expert John Hussman. Stay informed and engaged with our channel for essential financial news and analysis. #ElonMuskFinanceRevolution #TwitterFinancialServices #UPSNewLaborAgreement #S&P500MarketWarning #JohnHussmanInsights #ChatGPTFinancialAnalysis Feel free to subscribe to us for more updates and information! We strive to provide engaging and informative content on various topics. Stay tuned for the latest news and insights.

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, joins Derek Moore again to discuss whether this current bear market is tracing the 2000/2001 bear market. Plus, they highlight how tight yield spreads are looking at what the 3-month treasury bill/ 2-year treasury note are yielding compared to high yield and investment grade bonds. Then Jay and Derek go through the looming US debt bomb in regard to where interest payments might go and whether there will be political pressure for the Fed to keep rates low. Finally, after going through the avocado vs bitcoin relationship, they give a few recommendations.     The US Federal Debt is growing but what if rates stay higher and net interest owed goes up? What does the yield spread tell us about relationships of corporate bonds to treasuries? Is the current bear market tracking the 2000-2001 bear market? Does the price of Bitcoin and Avocados really track one another? Tom Lee points to breakouts in Nasdaq stocks Tom Lee Ex-FAANG forward PE ratios for the S&P 500 Index US Federal Debt held by the public Nominal GDP Growth vs US 10 Year Treasury Yield Looking at John Hussman regression chart on 10-year trailing growth vs nominal GDP US government spending next 10 years at WWII levels Current net interest payments by US government Average car price in the US hit new highs in 2022 while interest rates rising Negative equity on used cars getting rolled into new car loans Most home owners locked in really low interest rates Corporations interest costs as percent of cash flows low because they locked in low bond rates Comparing 3-Month Treasury Yields spread to high yield and investment grade bonds Car loans are getting too long considering cars are a depreciating asset   Mentioned in this Episode:   Underperformance of International stocks for a long time and valuations still too high? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/underperformance-of-international-stocks-valuations/id1432836154?i=1000601650028   No Volmageddon 2.0 | No Landing for the Economy? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-volmageddon-2-0-no-landing-for-the-economy/id1432836154?i=1000600413796   2019 WSJ article on car owners rolling negative equity on long term car loans into their next car https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-seven-year-auto-loan-americas-middle-class-cant-afford-their-cars-11569941215 Nominal (not inflation adjusted) US GDP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP Federal government current expenditures net interest payments on debt https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA Words and Numbers Podcast where they talk about tax receipts (what government takes in) have gone up 50%+ since 2020 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2zjC18iPqIm0LUeDPF2nAP?si=o2wX9sn8SB25BMSMrk2xzw   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore is back with Mike Puck, Director of Business Development at ZEGA Financial to talk underperformance of international stocks and how “everyone” is saying this is the year that trend gets reversed. Mike shares what people were talking about at the Miami ETF Conference around flows into international funds to start the year. Plus, they talk about what investors give up if they rotate out of S&P 500 US type investments and how you might already have international exposure in large US companies. Finally, they discuss the consensus for the US Dollar to drop in 2023 along with some other odds and ends within markets and the economy.     Why we don't try and pick markets and instead just Buy and Hedge! Comparing the performance of international stocks and value stocks Relative underperformance for over a decade in international stocks Is 2023 the year international finally outperforms again? Spain's IBEX Index price (not including dividends) is the same as it was in 1997-98 Makeup of stocks within the S&P 500 Index vs some international indexes Looking at the top 100 companies worldwide by market cap John Hussman Price/Sales ratio chart Price to sales still higher than average – although margins remain higher than average Market may be assuming net profit margins will stay elevated Google searches for Soft Landing are up Comparing the Nominal GDP growth to the 10-Year Treasury yield Early 90s Emerging Markets dominance International stock indexes have less technology and more value type stocks       Mentioned in this Episode:   No Volmageddon 2.0 | No Landing for the Economy? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-volmageddon-2-0-no-landing-for-the-economy/id1432836154?i=1000600413796   John Hussman article on current valuations https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230221/   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

Derek is back with the first show of 2023. On this week's episode, looking at successive negative market years frequency and returns by decade. Hint, we're still positive decade to date by more than you think. Plus, examining frequency of T bills outperforming the S&P 500 Index.     Review S&P 500 Index market returns by decade How frequent do markets have succussive down years? How can T-bills outperform the S&P 500 Index? Decade to date is still positive by more than people think. How markets have been good (outside of 2022) Looking at markets over longer horizons         Mentioned in this Episode:   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   John Hussman article on markets showing when T-bills outperform equity markets https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190906/   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com  

Recorded October 3, 2022.   Donate generously to World Central Kitchen ➡️ https://donate.wck.org/fundraiser/3816260  Listeners have been asking how they can show their appreciation for the talks George is hosting. Top of mind right now are the millions suffering as a result of the tragedy in Ukraine. World Central Kitchen has joined the fight to provide humanitarian aid to those in need of fresh food and meals within Ukraine and in bordering countries. Please donate generously to World Central Kitchen on behalf of NO BULL - Market Talk with George Noble™️.   Follow John Hussman on Twitter (https://twitter.com/hussmanjp) & Hussman Funds (https://www.hussmanfunds.com/) Follow George Noble on Twitter & YouTube

On Carl Schmitt's Political Theology (1922). We ask why people are scared of sovereignty – as opposed to state power per se, and analyse what is significant about the way in which Schmitt defines sovereignty. And what is the meaning of 'political theology'? And we discuss your questions.  This is an extended excerpt of the first 30 mins of the episode. For the full thing, go to patreon.com/bungacast Other links: The shibboleth of sovereignty, Martin Loughlin and Stephen Tierney, Modern Law Review, 2008 (pdf)  The Fed policy error that should worry investors, John Hussman, FT  The Death of the Central Bank Myth, Adam Tooze, Foreign Policy    

What do top Money and Markets experts like Jim Rogers, Jim Rickards, John Hussman, Grant Williams, Michael Pento, George Gammon, Wolf Richter and Steen Jakobsen think about the state of the financial markets as we enter 2022? How worried are they about inflation, record high prices for stocks and real estate, Federal Reserve tapering and interest rate hikes, or a market crash? What steps do they recommend today's investors consider taking now? See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/PU7dZrT-laY

What do top Money and Markets experts like Jim Rogers, Jim Rickards, John Hussman, Grant Williams, Michael Pento, George Gammon, Wolf Richter and Steen Jakobsen think about the state of the financial markets as we enter 2022? How worried are they about inflation, record high prices for stocks and real estate, Federal Reserve tapering and interest rate hikes, or a market crash? What steps do they recommend today's investors consider taking now? See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/PU7dZrT-laY

Week after week on this program, we discuss the lofty prices of today's financial assets. By most metrics, they have never been more richly-valued. Bears fear this is another asset bubble that will destructively implode. But bulls just smile and count their money, as they continue to enjoy amazing returns in this market, in nearly every asset class one can think of. So who's right? To address this, I'm thrilled to welcome my friend John Hussman to the program. John is one of the most analytically-rigorous fund managers out there. He is widely respected on Wall Street -- not just for correctly calling the busts of both the 2001 Dot-com and 2008 housing bubbles AND positioning his clients advantageously in advance -- but also for his brilliant commentary and charts that he publishes regularly. When it comes to recognizing asset bubbles, John is THE expert. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/7r6wbCL1c7w

Continuation from Part 1 on recognizing asset bubbles and how to prudently invest in them for when they burst. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/JMkAGueH0BQ

Week after week on this program, we discuss the lofty prices of today's financial assets. By most metrics, they have never been more richly-valued. Bears fear this is another asset bubble that will destructively implode. But bulls just smile and count their money, as they continue to enjoy amazing returns in this market, in nearly every asset class one can think of. So who's right? To address this, I'm thrilled to welcome my friend John Hussman to the program. John is one of the most analytically-rigorous fund managers out there. He is widely respected on Wall Street -- not just for correctly calling the busts of both the 2001 Dot-com and 2008 housing bubbles AND positioning his clients advantageously in advance -- but also for his brilliant commentary and charts that he publishes regularly. When it comes to recognizing asset bubbles, John is THE expert. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/7r6wbCL1c7w

Continuation from Part 1 on recognizing asset bubbles and how to prudently invest in them for when they burst. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/JMkAGueH0BQ

"Rob Black & Your Money" - Radio Show March 22nd - @KDOW1220AM (7a-9a) Rob Black talks about the cruise industry, the train industry, restaurant delivery services, John Hussman, and existing home sales.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"Rob Black & Your Money" - Radio Show March 22nd - @KDOW1220AM (7a-9a) Rob Black talks about the cruise industry, the train industry, restaurant delivery services, John Hussman, and existing home sales.

DB-Feb22,2021. Real Vision editor Jack Farley and managing editor Ed Harrison break down how rising yields are impacting risk assets such as growth equities and high-yield bonds. The pair review today’s price action, looking at everything from strength in oil and U.K. travel stocks to the significant sell-off in U.S. tech. Ed gives a primer on how rising yields dilute the value of assets with high duration and tells Jack why vaccination efforts in Europe are lagging behind the rest of the world. Later, Jack is joined by Weston Nakamura, former derivatives trader and head of the Real Vision Exchange, to analyze today’s price action in the Brazilian Real and Brazilian equities, which both plummeted as President Bolsonaro removed the CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. Ed and Jack close by looking at European fiscal as well as taking a sneak peek of tomorrow’s interview with John Hussman and Milton Berg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At just seventeen years old, John Hussman's introduction to the world of finance was a job hand drawing charts for an investment adviser who liked his handwriting. From that point on, he was hooked on markets. After receiving his PhD in Economics from Stanford in 1992, he went on to found Hussman Strategic Advisers and has been managing equity portfolios ever since. In this episode, John discusses how he developed his "value-conscious, historically-informed, full-cycle" investment discipline over the past 40 years and how he is implementing it today to navigate one of the most "overvalued, overbought and overbullish" stock markets of all time. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

John Hussman, Ph.D discusses his valuation framework, the problematic 12-year expected equity returns, the most likely inflation outcome and shows why we're a long way from a slam-dunk buying opportunity.

The Coronavirus Home Lockdown Survival Guide: How To Stay Healthy, Sane & Solvent https://youtu.be/C6NnSbZicJU Peak Prosperity READ the full Peak Prosperity's Coronavirus Home Lockdown Survival Guide here: https://www.peakprosperity.com/lockdown Below are links to the resources referenced within this video: Peak Prosperity's Home Food Storage Wiki https://www.peakprosperity.com/wikis/... Peak Prosperity's Deep Pantry Megathread https://peakprosperityfilelibrary.wor... Peak Prosperity's Sanitation & PPE Megathread https://peakprosperityfilelibrary.wor... Peak Prosperity's podcast with James Rawles: Practical Coronavirus Preparation https://www.peakprosperity.com/james-... How We're Personally Preparing Against The Coronavirus https://www.peakprosperity.com/how-we... Flu/respiratory home treatment guidance from an ER doctor https://www.peakprosperity.com/corona... The Internet Book Of Critical Care/Covid-19 https://emcrit.org/ibcc/covid19/ Peak Prosperity's Medicinals Megathread https://peakprosperityfilelibrary.wor... CDC guide for creating a sick room https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/homecare/... Where There Is No Doctor https://www.amazon.com/Where-There-No... Peak Prosperity's Emergency Preparation Guide https://www.peakprosperity.com/step-0... WHO covid-19 recommended hygiene behavior for the public https://www.who.int/emergencies/disea... SleepFoundation.org's Sleep Hygiene guide https://www.sleepfoundation.org/artic... Vitamin D/Covid-19 research paper https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i... Peak Prosperity's Supplements Megathread https://peakprosperityfilelibrary.wor... Importance of Emotional Resilience https://www.peakprosperity.com/learni... Having 'The Talk' With Your Family https://www.businessinsider.com/how-t... Evidence Covid-19 is harder on younger people than previously understood https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news... Dealing With Disagreement in Relationships https://www.peakprosperity.com/dealin... How To Manage Conflict & Build Relationships That Last https://www.peakprosperity.com/dealin... Mindfulness https://www.headspace.com/mindfulness Visualization https://www.realsimple.com/health/min... Journaling https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/25/st... Alone Time https://www.theatlantic.com/health/ar... The Layoff Survival Handbook https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-la... John Hussman and Steen Jakobsen On The Markets https://www.peakprosperity.com/specia... New Harbor Financial's Latest Commentary On How To Handle The Market drop https://youtu.be/-nH7Bu5h_M4 Schedule A Free Consultation With New Harbor Financial https://www.greylockpeak.com/

McAlvany Weekly Commentary John Hussman – “Market could decline as much as 64%” Druckenmiller – “Next 5 years will be very different now that money is no longer free” Doug Noland – “Market contagion is back”CLICK HERE to register for the Q3 Tactical Short Call Click Here To Learn More About Vaulted   The McAlvany Weekly Commentary with […] The post Market Tremors Today Point To Epic Market Volatility Ahead appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

The latest weekly blogpost from mutual fund manager John Hussman warns of the quote ‘brutal consequences’ of staying invested in equities. There is a compelling quality to his analyses – a sort of as-day-follows-night kind of logic to them. But the former professor professes too much, and investors must firmly understand that his data do not allow us to deduce the timing of market crashes and recessions.

Simon Wajcenberg from K1T Capital details the views of market experts - David Stockman, Peter Schiff and John Hussman - on markets under Trump Presidency, which are anything but positive. The big three see debt crisis, financial market crash and Fed’s QE 4 later this year. Wajcenberg also lists Trump’s bankruptcies in the past and says the seventh one could be coming soon.

Michael Covel opens up his first monologue of 2015 with a quote from Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory. There you have it: Willy Wonka completely outlining behavioral economics and proper investing all in a film about candy. Next, Covel quotes John Hussman’s recent piece regarding cognitive dissonance. Today, Covel has three examples of cognitive dissonance. First, Covel speaks of a recent case where a high school student was said to have made 72 million dollars. Of course, the story was false, but Covel explores. Many want to believe that these savants exist, but we all know the truth. Next, Covel discusses Hugh Hendry and why he now believes as an investor you have to sometimes believe in things that don’t necessarily exist. Good strategy doesn’t need to change based on the political winds blowing across the world. Next, Covel gives an example from a CNBC writer named Lawrence Delevingne who wrote recently on “hedge fund robots” doing well in 2014. Covel discusses these “robots” vs. “gut-driven human managers” and picks it apart. Why did trend following have such an excellent year in 2014? Covel explores and notes that trend following isn’t concerned with the previous year--it’s concerned with right now. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

"Give me a talking head that says which way is up, and I'll listen. Give me something I can believe in." That's what most people believe, even if it's a fantasy. Michael Covel discusses what makes a good teacher, and brings up one quote in particular: "A good teacher is one who will not give you an answer, but will allow you to find the answer in yourself. A teacher is a guide. He or she will show you that the answer is inside you, and that there is a right answer." Michael Covel discusses a John Hussman quote and explores "right" and "wrong" answers. Hussman's comments are not about trading; trend followers don't attempt to make the analysis that he does. Trend followers don't analyze how poor Bernanke's policies may or may not be; trend followers do not attempt to say whether Fed policies are good or bad. You don't make money trying to make those judgments. Covel discusses some of the comments he received after posting the Hussman quote, noting some supportive Fed comments. Of course, none of these views are relevant to trend following trading. But as a human being--as a thinking person--Covel discusses some Fed policies. Covel's point here is to get you to think: Do you just want to trust the system? With stock markets at all-time highs and interest rates low that everything is rosy and everyone has it figured out? With the S&P having collapsed 50% two times in the past fifteen years do you want to trust that it can't happen again? Do you want to trust that the DOW really can't go from 15,000 to 7,500? This is what Hussman is really getting at. Unlike a trend following trader Hussman is getting at why these machinations and maneuvers of the Fed really don't last. The beast can't be contained. So will you have a plan when all hell breaks loose? Nothing can contain market volatility; it always comes back. And sometimes markets don't recover: look at Japan. Covel asks, "do you want to trust the system, or do you want to have control of your life to some degree?" Bottom line, you can make  money when the central planning plans break down. Finally, Covel ends today's show with a long clip from Hugh Hendry that gets at the issue of what capitalism is today. Do you want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Michael Covel returns for his first podcast since going abroad in Southeast Asia. Currently in Thailand, Covel catches us up on where he's been so far. He notes the history of past conflicts in the area and his thoughts from a mountain view six-thousand feet above the ground looking onto the landscape below. Since leaving the US Covel has especially enjoyed not paying attention to the news coming from America. The idea of noise is afterall pointless from a trend following perspective. If you can get away from it, either physically (like Covel) or mentally, it's a good idea to eliminate it in your life. Along the lines of what's needed and not needed, Covel plays a video called "What Do Prices Know That You Don't?", a clip from a Duke professor that discusses relying on price to make decisions. Even though the video doesn't come from a direct trend following perspective, it illustrates the danger of too much information. It's easy to play the game of waiting for one more news report, watching one more episode of Bill O'Reilly, or trusting the promises of one last politician. That's where we are right now: we're in a game. So, if you are in a game, how do you navigate it? What do you do? What decisions do you make? And what happens when the game doesn't go the way the government has said? So, what lies ahead? Covel reads a piece of writing from Transtrend's newsletter regarding the role of the government and what you can expect, followed by a piece from John Hussman. Both readings seem to agree on one thing: something will happen at some point. Are you prepared? Or do you just want to just trust that the government will forever be able to prop up the market? Hussman makes the point to not follow prices, which Covel disagrees with--if the Chinese stock market is going up, you want to be long. The issue isn't what to do in a market that's going up; the issue is having an exit strategy. Covel's view is to be long and be happy in a rising market, but have an exit strategy. That's the solution. If you can't wrap your arms around that you might think about getting out of the markets completely. Even if you don't ultimately adopt a trend following strategy, if you're going to be trading, it's of dire importance to understand the concept of trend following. It's essential to have it in your arsenal of tools. Covel wraps up and shares some other observations about Asia, his upcoming presentations abroad, announces an upcoming audiobook version of The Complete TurtleTrader, and discusses what you can expect from the podcast in the coming months. Want a free trend following DVD? Visit trendfollowing.com/win.

How is trend following a bit like the Billy Idol song, "Dancing With Myself"? Michael Covel explains the importance of maintaining an independent spirit, feeling comfortable standing alone and outside the crowd and being your own self. Covel contrasts this to the famous scene in "American Psycho" where a group of executives compare the card stock and fancy presentation of their business cards trying to impress one another. That's the complete opposite of what "Dancing With Myself" gets at. Worry about yourself, not the crowd. Covel then quotes hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry. Hendry holds himself out in public as coming from a fundamental perspective, even though his hero is trend trader Bruce Kovner, who was trained by Michael Marcus, who was trained by Ed Seykota (all trend following traders). You get the picture. Hendry honestly states that he doesn't know what's going to happen, but he puts himself in the position to have probabilistic bets that can profit when the market moves--in whatever direction. Covel moves on to quote David Einhorn, a hedge fund manager. What will the Fed do if the bubble bursts when interest rates are at zero? Is Covel, in quoting Einhorn, trying to predict the future by talking about this subject? He's simply mapping out what he sees: A world that's rigged and manipulated, and a Federal Reserve that's trying to make its buddies at the big banks wealthy. In the midst of this how can you protect yourself and profit? The only way you can truly protect yourself is by looking at the price in the here and now from a trend following perspective. You can make decisions based on the price movement without having any idea what the Fed is doing behind the curtain. There is no certainty. There's only chaos, uncertainty, fractures, and cracks in the sidewalk. You have to have a plan before that fracture breaks. Although traders like Einhorn, Hendry, and John Hussman might not be trend following traders themselves, their observations certainly make the case for employing a trend following strategy. Special Offer? Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Michael Covel talks about "The Power of Now" by Eckhart Tolle. Covel defends studying the book as a psychological manifesto for "navigating the trend following waters". Halfway through the book Covel realized how it sounded like all the trend following traders he's studied over the past fifteen years (even if it wasn't the author's intention). Covel isn't out to get you to start singing kumbaya and burning incense; he's just out to get you to look at the world differently so you can profit. Covel discusses Cullen Roche, author of the "Pragmatic Capitalism" blog, who posted some quotes from Warren Buffet recently. Covel acknowledges that Buffett is one of the most successful entrepreneurs in the history of modern man, but has no problem criticizing the myths that surround him. Buffett noted that Berkshire has $40 billion in cash on hand, but "prices are difficult right now". So, what does that even mean? Why is Buffett on CNBC? He's talking his "book", he's creating the aura, and perhaps confusing people into making decisions based off his advice. Or perhaps he simply needs his ego stroked. So, what do you buy based on that advice? How do you make buy and sell decisions? Trend following doesn't rely on vague statements, and the positive performance dates back to 1903. With trend following price is price. That is an under the radar concept though. Most people simply know Buffett's value investing, buy and hold world. However, there are inherent problems in value investing and Covel investigates by quoting David Rosenberg and John Hussman along the way. From their fundamental perspective Rosenberg and Hussman lay the foundation for trend following without thst being their intention. Covel also goes on to discuss "Finding Peace with Uncertainty" from the Zen Habits blog and announces a new $500 gun shooting video contest. Offer--Would you like a free special DVD: trendfollowing.com/free.html.

Michael Covel brings some unexpected trend following messages and inspiration from eclectic and unexpected places. The first comes from Neil Young, his lyrics signifying the ups and downs of life and trading. The important thing is that we're along for the ride: "I've been first and last, look at how the time goes past, but I'm all alone at last, rolling home to you." Covel discusses the unexpected inspiration he's found over the past few weeks leading up to his recent speaking engagement in Las Vegas arranged by Timothy Sykes. As you would expect Covel found some important food for thought on his trip and he shares these eccentric lessons: A pamphlet found in a hotel room from Affliction Clothing; a film called "Jiro Dreams of Sushi" that holds some important messages about passion and practice; a book that Covel received from his Yoga teacher titled "How Yoga Works" that has more to do with trading than you'd ever expect; and the book "Investment Biker: On The Road with Jim Rogers". Covel also discusses a quote from famed trader Larry Hite about how in the big picture nothing really changes. People are people and people are always motivated by greed and fear. A reader questions how high frequency trading and automation work into the equation and Covel answers. Covel also discusses some thoughts from more fundamental thinkers such as Hugh Hendry and John Hussman (and why, whether it is their intention or not, they write great missives about why trend following works). From a strategy perspective how do you follow along and make money in a world where fundamentals don't offer you hope on the timing of things? How can you make money in that world? The answer is trend following. If you don't have trend following in your portfolio what are you missing? Covel also makes a big announcement for a special in-person seminar event in Las Vegas coming up in December. The event includes both of Covel's dinosaur systems (T-Rex and Triceratops), a ton of materials (documents, audio, and video) that are unlikely to ever be released anywhere else, a long Friday night dinner, a full day session on Saturday--everything you need but the airfare. You'll have to make your decision by November 1st for the event on December 7th and 8th. Also a special DVD offer: www.trendfollowing.com/win.