Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wrong or not to keep rates steady.    MSTR MicroStrategy potential to join the S&P 500 Index? Requirements for a company to enter the S&P 500 Index Why companies entering and leaving helps the long-term growth of the index Where to look for emerging candidates to enter the S&P 500 Index Vanguard Extended Market ETF Should the Fed have lowered rates? What is the Trueflation index? CPI inflation for April released this week Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Trueflation vs CPI Inflation     Mentioned in this Episode   Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting   Sam Ro article on S&P 500 Index company turnover https://www.tker.co/p/s-and-p-500-turnover-goldman-sachs-forecast?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Vanguards Extended Market ETF https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vxf#portfolio-composition   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com         

Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1's more negative print. Hint, it's those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn't gone back up so why won't they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk.   Components of GDP Net exports calculation When markets have a near bear market how much on average is the market higher 1-year later? What is an almost bear market? Unemployment review after Friday's release Will the Fed cut rates at the May meeting? Scott Bessent says the 2-year treasury is telling the Fed to cut Comparing various CPI inflation rates in March AAII investors still mega bearish Barrons polls market people who are most bearish in 30 years Is the Barrons cover a contrarian signal? Why the Fed didn't end inflation in 2022, and their rate increases didn't do anything Sell in May and go away? Best historical time periods for returns     Mentioned in this Episode   Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary says the Fed needs to cut https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-says-225359048.html   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   

Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple's implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the media talks about ends of eras and more.    Apple earnings implied volatility What is the implied volatility expected earnings move for Apple FMS manager survey shows fund managers were max bearish near recent bottom Distance off the low is now +10% after being down -18.90% All that said, the S&P is down -10% off the all-time high Investment banks start downgrading their year end S&P 500 Index targets Bear case for housing due to high mortgage rates Earnings have been good so far but what about the future? Comparing mortgage payments at low vs 7% rates Sentiment and VIX readings near contrarian lows like prior periods  Container shipping container rates are down and that is not inflationary Container shipping volume and capacity are all down     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com               

Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren't working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even consider them? Finally, how fund managers were overly long US Equities in December but now after the selloff they are saying they may reduce US equities. A little late no and how even professionals may react, panic, or be influenced by prevailing sentiment.    Gold all-time high US Dollar and US Treasuries get correlated with US equities and weren't the safe havens The airport crowdedness indicator of recessions? Fundamental EPS estimates are down a little but not much so far so what are they waiting for? Big earnings week including Tesla and Google (Alphabet) Fund manager surveys show they were overly long US equities before the selloff  Fund manager surveys also show as equities are in drawdown, they are thinking of selling High Yield spreads not showing recession levels of widening currently Typical high yield spread during recessions is 1000 basis points plus How economists tend to crowd together in their predicting recessions VIX Index implied volatility (expected) vs actual volatility (historical)     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com             

Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin's historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week.   Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility Did the market bottom this week? Comparing volatility in March 2020 to tariff selloff today Context on how much market moved in a day to a normal year Intraday move was literally 2 ½ hours for a market to move 9% Biggest up days cluster around the biggest down days Bond yields surging is a problem Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen gets when tariffs are paused for 90 days The VIX Index wasn't pricing the crazy daily moves we've seen in markets Why investors shouldn't panic sell    Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com                         

  Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn't price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren't high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement?  What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and are we at max panic yet plus the continued case for hedging.    When do we reach capitulation? The market is cheaper so will people step in and buy? The problem analysts have in making forecasts given the tariff landscape Explaining implied volatility vs historical volatility Why was the VIX higher after the first bad day Thursday Discussing how a VIX closes at 45 is significant Remembering sentiment at different inflection points in the market like 2020, 2015 2000 etc Markets are back to where they were in August when the Yen Carry trade unwound  Why investors shouldn't panic The case for using hedged equity strategies What does a bottom look like? Market is much cheaper on a forward valuation basis What are the economic risks? Unemployment was fine and the economy was adding jobs so what's the problem? Atlanta Fed GDP Update   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500 Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are? Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high Mentioned in this Episode Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab1  ECON PI http://econpi.com/index.php  Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT  Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt  Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag  Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 

Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed's Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don't beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more.    Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months AAII Bull Bear Spreads says way bearish still Fed dot plots Fed Funds Futures rate expectations Multiple Contraction is the reason for the drawdown not a reduction in earnings estimates LEI Leading Economic Indicator   Mentioned in this Episode   Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=Using%20the%20Composite%20Indexes:%20The%20Leading%20Economic,economy%20is%20heading%20in%20the%20near%20term.&text=The%20CEI's%20four%20component%20indicators%E2%80%94payroll%20employment%2C%20personal,used%20to%20determine%20recessions%20in%20the%20US.   CME Fed watch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html   Federal Reserve Dot Plots Summary of Economic Projections March 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

Derek Moore is back to break down the wild week including Nvidia rallying when against the bearish tide. How the US Dollar index pulling back might be bullish for earnings. Plus, have we reached max panic and max bearishness setting up for a near term bottom in markets? Later, looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the VIX Inversion and what that means for markets, and why people are now bullish or bearish based on politics. All that and more!   Fear and Greed Index Drawdowns vs full year market performance US Dollar index US Trade Weighed Dollar Index University of Michigan Sentiment Indicator Republicans vs Democrats Nvidia was up close to 8% last week Micron earnings through Implied Volatility Readings Long Straddle cost before earnings VIX Futures curve inversion   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds' futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what's the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they come back but this week we dig into everything markets and provide some historical context and whether there are bullish signs.   Peter Lynch on corrections from 1994 Comparing this drawdown to all the others since 2009 Why investors shouldn't panic Reminding everyone why it's good to be hedged to ease your mind around corrections What are options markets saying via the implied volatility levels and the Vix Index Comparing 10 Day implied volatility on SPY options vs 90 Day implied volatility The S&P 500 Index forward PE ration vs earnings estimates Nvidia bear market territory despite earnings beats and falling Forward PE ratio Washington DC new unemployment claims in perspective The unemployment rate of 4.1 percent threads the needle 3 Fed Rate cuts now priced in 2025? Value of hedging your portfolio High yield has held up ok so far compared to the equity market Earnings estimates are still higher, but will analysts cut them due to tariffs?  Uncertainty of Tariffs  Why the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast went negative Balance of trade on exports minus imports due to tariffs gets really wide Trade deficit expands   Mentioned in this Episode   Peter Lynch 1994 video talking about corrections in markets frequency https://zegainvestments.com/blog/for-investors-worried-about-market-corrections-this-is-why-you-hedge-so-that-you-can-worry-less   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT    

Derek Moore goes through last week's pullback and Nvidia's post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn't made a new high since December  but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down.    Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total world stock market ETFs Forward PE levels drop as markets retrace while earnings estimates rise US Effective Tariff Rate impact of various potential tariffs according to Goldman Sachs AAII survey goes full bear but is it justified compared to prior periods? Broadcom earnings and what the implied volatility suggests a 1 standard deviation move is Did the options market get the post earnings Nvidia move correct?   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   

Derek Moore and Mike Puck talk about the resurgence of international stocks against the US. Plus, how the rest of the market has a similar performance to the Mag 7, indicating a broadening out of stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Later, they discuss what markets historically have done after being up in January and February. Profit margins are rising outside the Mag 7 names and looking at the expected Nvidia move around earnings based upon the implied volatility levels.    S&P 500 Index 493 vs the Mag 7 year to date International stocks including emerging markets and developed markets shine against the US Profit margins continue to rise across the entire S&P 500 Index RSP vs SPY vs EEM vs EFA year to date performance relative to one another Average performance since 1950 for the S&P 500 Index after being up January and February Nvidia options before next week's earnings announcement Calculate expected moves in Nvidia based on implied volatility Pricing the long straddle and short straddle on Nvidia pre-earnings   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be up or down. Finally, most people look at Real Inflation adjusted GDP, but Nominal GDP growth may be correlated to the 10-year yield and what that means if we go back to pre-GFC nominal growth rates. All this and more.    What is Nominal GDP Growth Rate? What is Real GDP growth? The US Dollar index and whether we are out of the zone of significance yet? Inflation in services remains sticky Why interest rates staying higher isn't necessarily a problem for the stock market Quantifying sensitivity of the S&P 500 Index to small changes in the forward PE multiple 1994-95 vs 2024-25 update around treasury yields, S&P 500 returns Alibaba and Arista earnings this week and their option implied moves  How to calculate expected move around earnings based on implied volatility levels     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to react to the unemployment report. Was it good or bad for the markets and why? Plus, they review the last trade and tariff war from 2017-2018 and how the market actually did pretty well. Later, the latest survey on forward inflation expectations is now over 5%. Finally, they compare MicroStrategy's implied volatility to Blackrock's IBIT ETF and whether the options market is undervaluing MSTR's IV. All that and more this week.    Markets performance back in 2017-2018 when tariffs were enacted Inflation expectations shoot up due to tariffs  Stock market performance during the 2017-2018 trade and tariff war MicroStrategy implied volatility Comparing MicroStrategy volatility to Blackrock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF Looking at the breakeven on a long MSTR straddle and the risks Reviewing the unemployment report Will unemployment go down due to new government strategic focus? AI mentions on S&P 500 earnings calls 83% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 6% US Non-Farm Payrolls consecutive positive months BLS forgot to fill in the monthly change on unemployment report?   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Derek Moore previews Palantir, Amazon, and Google earnings implied volatility expectations based on the option market. Plus, how currency movements may or may not mute new tariffs. Later, Derek answers a listener question on why mortgage rates (and bonds) have a spread between their rate and the 10 Year Treasury yield. Plus, digging into new data that shows analysts producing earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index are pretty accurate as it turns out. Finally, what is market fragility and are we in a fragility period right now?   What is market fragility? Analyst estimates vs actuals show analysts might know what they are doing 30-year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury Why is there a spread above treasuries What is reinvestment risk on mortgage bonds? Tariffs impact on markets How currency moves on the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, and Chinese Yuan may blunt tariffs Will tariffs cause more onshoring and manufacturing in the US? Sentiment was tariffs would be used as a threat, then they'll be short lived, so now what?   Mentioned in this Episode   Analysts are pretty good at predicting earnings from Sam Ro https://www.tker.co/p/analysts-earnings-estimates-accuracy   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Derek Moore previews Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft earnings by looking at the implied moves around earning by the options market. Plus, Bloomberg comes out with a new inflation gauge called The Bacon Egg & Cheese Sandwich index. Later, Derek talks about a new study which shows the percentage of time in recessions by decades. Oh, and reacting to a headline “hedging is for suckers” and why it's wrong.   Zero Hedge article headline “Downside Protection is for Suckers” reaction Percent of time in recessions Bacon Egg & Cheese Inflation Index from Bloomberg Implied volatility on major companies reporting earnings TSLA, MSFT, and AAPL How to easily calculate the options market implied 1-day 1-standard deviation move Why implied volatility moves higher pre-earnings Cost of a options Straddle trade around earnings Risks of a straddle trade both buying and selling the straddle     Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com  

Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Mike Puck to talk markets including how people seem to think making money in Bitcoin is too easy and what that means. Plus, why the S&P 500 Index concentration may not be as big of a deal when looking at how the index changes. Comparing the top 10 market weighted stocks in 1997 to today. Later they discuss value vs growth performance, the dollar index, interest rates, and look at the implied volatility of Netflix options before earnings. Finally, they talk about how what seems obvious to all the CNBC talking head guests may not be the case.   Concentration in the top stocks within the S&P 500 Index Comparing the top weighted companies today vs 1997 in the S&P 500 Index How today its all tech vs 30 years ago Why owning the S&P 500 Index is more active than you think Additions to the S&P 500 Index in 2024 and their performance Implied volatility in Netflix options pre-earnings Calculating the implied move around earnings based on implied volatility Looking at the ATM long straddle before earnings including the risk Dollar index and EPS in the S&P correlation Bitcoin believers are starting to think its too easy to make money Bitcoin maximalists have been rewarded, and Derek is still a skeptic Value vs Growth and why Value is a tough sell to money managers   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Spencer Wright to discuss the surge in bond yields, the surge in the US Dollar Index, and whether those two things might cause some near-term pain for equity markets. Plus, discussing whether AI Artificial Intelligence is a true next technological revolution and what it means for earnings. Then they talk semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI and do some technical analysis reviewing the patterns in the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq 100, Semiconductors and bond yields. Oh, and there was the unemployment report that markets didn't like in the moment as it was “too good” because does it mean the Fed is done cutting? All this and more this week!   Bond interest rates surge as 10-year treasury hits 4.7% UK Gilt Bonds surge to a higher rate than when the government had to step in Unemployment surprises at 4.1% but market reacts negatively Fed rate cuts not priced in until October 29th meeting and 1 cut at that AI Artificial Intelligence – is it the 6th great sea change revolution? Semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI Technical analysis triangle patters Technical analysis on NDX, SPX, and Semiconductors The trade weighted dollar index and impact to earnings due to currency exchange Are high rates bad or just the journey to get there first? Technical analysis book recommendations   Mentioned in this Episode   Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas N. Bulkowski https://amzn.to/4gVExnm   Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez https://amzn.to/3Wefgwd   Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy https://amzn.to/3Wefgwd   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?    Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data MicroStrategy implied volatility S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500 Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move? Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers   Mentioned in this Episode   JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli round out the year with some 2025 predictions on markets, rates, bonds, oil, bitcoin, the dollar, GDP, inflation, and gold. Plus, does Bitcoin have a Quantum Computing problem? What's going on with deflation in China and is it the answer to potential tariffs? And news flash, the inverted yield curve is no more as the 10-year treasury yield rises above the 3-month treasury yield. All this and more!   2025 Predictions China Deflation including 10-year Chinese Government Bond yields falling China currency valuation, bond yields, and deflation a recipe to nullify US tariffs? Quantum computer by Google and can it mine Bitcoin? Will Quantum computers put Bitcoin wallets at risk? (part of our random predictions) The reversion or un-inversion of the 10 year and the 3-month treasury The inverted yield curve was the longest ever and didn't cause a recession Will the un-inverted yield curve now cause a recession? VIX Index vs VIX futures spread Additions and subtractions to the S&P 500 Index Commodities including coffee, rubber, and cocoa rise Earnings season soon upon us   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli react to the Fed meeting where people are calling it a hawkish cut and a reset of future expectations of where interest rates end up. Plus, the Dot Plots say long run PCE Inflation will only go to 3% not 2%. Later looking at the Trade Weighted Dollar Index breakout and if it will become a problem for earnings growth in 2025. Of course, the big news last week was the spike in the VIX as the market had a temper tantrum. Finally, they go into earnings expectation, price to forward sales ratio, real retail sales, and more and even a wacky (or not) Amazon prediction.   Fed Hawkish Rate cut Fed PCE Inflation Dot Plot 3% long run target The Fed Pivot or Fed Reset in effect? The VIX Spikes as the market has a tantrum after Powell press conference Looking at current forward pe ratio for the S&P 500 Index now Earnings expectations and the strong US Dollar The US Dollar breaks out above resistance Forward Price to Sales ratio getting elevated? Goods vs services inflation PPI services is still elevated Would Amazon ever break out its business units to take advantage of AI and their chip? Greenspan fed vs Powell 1994 bull market vs this bull market and does it mean longer to run?   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com          

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli gather once again to discuss whether inflation is too high for the Fed to aggressively cut rates more. Then, they talk about the probability of the S&P 500 closing or getting to 7000 by year end 2025. Plus, is inflation still too high looking at Core CPI and CPI Supercore for the fed to cut rates as much as projected. Later, they go into some myths on the US debt and foreign ownership of treasuries, US Dollar Index against some resistance levels, what does paying your fair share in taxes mean, and more.   How probabilities are calculated based on option prices Current probability of the S&P 500 Index hitting 7000 by year end 2025 Difference between probability of touching and probability of expiring in the money Looking at the current forward PE ratio and multiple for the S&P Calculating theoretical year end 2025 S&P price at different earnings and multiples Is the PE multiple too high? US Dollar moves higher but coming up against resistance? Looking at who owns the $34 Trillion US Debt Percentage of foreign countries who own treasuries Many people think China owns more treasuries than it currently does How much does the Fed own of outstanding US debt? What does paying your fair share in taxes mean? Income comparisons when including government transfer payments (benefits) and taxes Data from New York City points to a small number of people paying most of the taxes CPI Supercore CPI Core and the Fed targets Shelter inflation How big of a company would SpaceX be if it went public? Broadcom hits $1 Trillion in market cap today   Mentioned in this Episode   CBO report on Distribution of Household Income https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56575   NYC Department of Taxation https://www.tax.ny.gov/data/stats/taxfacts/personal-income-tax.htm   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli cover markets including the news on the CEO of United Healthcare, the Hawk Tuah meme coin alleged scam, unpacking the latest unemployment report, how markets go up 29% or more in a year more often than you'd think, and how the rotation of voting members of the FOMC might be hawkish in 2025. Plus, checking in on the ratio of returns of MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin.  Plus, looking at the 53-month drawdown in the US Aggregate Bond Index and corresponding ETF.   Hawk Tuah crypto meme coin alleged scam, pump and dump, rug pull etc (alleged) What is a pump and dump, or rug pull? Why would anyone buy a meme coin? Reacting to the news on United Healthcare's CEO being murdered Understanding single stock risk and hedging Reviewing the components of the latest unemployment numbers Difference between the household and establishment employment survey Was there more unemployment or more new entrants that drove the number? US Aggregate Bond Index ETF AGG's years long drawdown Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy relative performance since the recent all-time high in MicroStrategy Looking at the relative ratio of performance on the way up and since it's retraced Who's out and who's in at the Fed FOMC voting committee in 2025 US Average Hourly Earnings Bloomberg's AI program to identify how many S&P 500 companies mentioned job cuts Contribution to the US Unemployment rate   Mentioned in this Episode   US Unemployment report (the one with the unemployment rate percentage) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli join up once again to talk about whether the forward PE ratio is getting overextended. Then, they discuss where we are in the 4-year Presidential market cycle, years with the most all-time highs, the US Dollar and interest rates, and PCE inflation numbers. Later, they get into the dynamics of the MicroStrategy convertible bonds and how they resemble options.  Finally, they talk through the option dynamics on MicroStrategy include what the implied volatility is, what it is implying for a move over the next year, and what the breakeven levels would be on a 1-year option. Hint, it may be crazy!   MicroStrategy convertible bonds explained MicroStrategy option implied volatility Price of the 1-year MicroStrategy straddle and breakeven levels 2025 Wall Street S&P 500 Index year end targets Looking at how many times the markets are average Inflation is still above the 2% Fed supposed target so what now? US Dollar index and interest rates Which year had the most intra-year all-time highs? 1st year of the presidential cycle and the market Forward PE ratios are extended so is that an issue? Makeup of the S&P 500 Index companies is different today than 40 years ago Checking in on earnings estimates   Mentioned in this Episode   Historical Market returns S&P 500, Tbills, Tbonds, gold, and housing since 1928 from Professor Aswath Damodaran and NYU Stern School of Business https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back on the big 300th episode to discuss whether Michael Saylor's ‘Bitcoin Yield' makes sense and looking at why people are buying MicroStrategy vs just buying Bitcoin. Then they talk Nvidia earnings and how it is getting cheaper on a forward 12-month PE ratio basis even as the price has moved higher. Plus, they look at the options action on Nvidia right before earnings. Speaking of semiconductors, they look at a potentially bearish pattern in the SOX Index, the Dollar Yen pair getting back to August levels, and ask the question if you could have bought Dominos Pizza or Google at their respective IPOs, which one would you have taken and how its worked out.   MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Wall Street Journal Jonathan Weil article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy What is the Bitcoin Yield? Forward PE ratio of Nvidia vs its price Nvidia earnings options action Performance of Dominos Pizza vs Google since their respective IPOs Median S&P 500 Index historical performance post-election and after inauguration US vs international vs The Dollar post-election performance Argentia ETF post Javier Milei's election victory bullish move The Dollar Yen pair moves back towards the old August highs, but does it mean anything? Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put a 6500 year end 2025 price target on the S&P 500     Mentioned in this Episode   MicroStrategy's Magical Bitcoin Machine article in WSJ by Jonathan Weil https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/microstrategys-magical-bitcoin-buying-machine-uses-some-wacky-math-da7d85d0?st=AUzUiM   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron's article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their options, 90+ days delinquent credit card debt rising, and comparing post-election rallies around close Presidential elections.   MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Post election rallies around close Presidential elections 10-Year Treasury Yields acting different than normal post Fed cutting action US 2-year Treasury yield vs the Fed Funds target rate Probability of interest rate cut in December update US Inflation progress stalled in October? US Dollar Index pushing through resistance When the US Dollar strength matters and when it doesn't Comparing where we are today with inflation against the 1970s chart S&P 500 Index risk premium (forward earnings yield minus 10-year treasury yield) Percentage of US credit card debt that is delinquent reaches highest level in over a decade S&P 500 Index forward EPS estimates Barron's article evaluating MicroStrategy's premium to its Bitcoin holdings     Mentioned in this Episode   Barron's Article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy valuation https://www.barrons.com/articles/microstrategy-stock-price-bitcoin-valuation-702281bd   Explanation of US sugar tariffs and the history of behind them https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/candy-coated-cartel-time-kill-us-sugar-program#an-overview-of-u-s-sugar-policy   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli decide who got the S&P 500 Index 6000 prediction right. Then they talk about Bitcoin running to new highs and some theories about a Bitcoin strategic reserve now that Trump is the President Elect. Later, they review some data pointing to bond yields remaining high (or going higher). Then discussing how investment banks S&P targets rise to follow the markets. All that plus a listener email.   Small Cap fund flows into IWM TLT ETF bond flows Bitcoin makes new highs and ETF fund flows surge Hussman 12-year forward estimate nonfinancial market cap divided by gross value-added Goldman Sachs 12-month S&P Price Target Markets 12-month forward performance after Fed cuts rates near all-time highs 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Nominal GDP Growth Trump to stockpile Bitcoin in a strategic reserve? VIX and implied volatility collapse post-election Jay and Derek discuss who correctly called S&P 500 6000 by the end of the year     Mentioned in this Episode   Trump – Stockpile Bitcoin in strategic reserve https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2024/08/05/trumps-latest-crypto-gamble-00172611   Podcast where Jay and Derek predicted S&P 500 6000 back in mid June https://open.spotify.com/episode/5kEdjbbXKuCJ114381jYL8?si=420ed5b0864e4aea   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported. Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they look at next week's prediction for interest rates for the Fed Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the 10-year treasury and talk about what's happened since the first Fed cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market concentration of the top 10 stocks, seasonality in the S&P 500 index, and looking at earnings so far including whether companies are beating and what sectors are doing well. Then stay tuned as Spencer Wright joins Derek to review the data in the upcoming election. Are the polls accurate? How is Trump performing vs Biden and Clinton in previous races? The electoral college states that matter and even a potential election tie. Unemployment disappoints? How the predictions all missed except for Bloomberg survey that was closer Analyzing the jobs data and is it the bad news is good news again scenario ahead of the Fed? Earnings beats and evaluating the EPS and revenue by sector S&P 500 Index seasonality post elections and non-election years Housing starts minus completions and what it means if anything The stock markets current bullish streak Top 10 S&P stocks now 37% of the index US Federal government spending vs. tax revenue 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury go higher since 1st Fed cut What are fed funds futures predicting for rate cut at next week's Fed meeting? Is bad weather to blame for low respondent rates to employment surveys? Trump vs. Harris based on the latest polling data Will the polls be accurate this time (correcting polling errors?) Predictions on who will win Comparing Trump's numbers this year 2024 vs 2020 and 2016 in the swing states Mentioned in this Episode 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map https://www.270towin.com/ BLS October Employment release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage US Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US      US Market Returns by Political Party Historical https://zegafinancial.com/blog/should-investors-be- worried-about-the-election-and-what-to-do-if-you-are Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman's 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What's behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple's options volatility pre-earnings.   Goldman Sachs base case of 3% annualized return next 10 years Vanguard's June 2024 10 year forward annualized return estimates How market movement is attributed to EPS, Sales, Dividends, Margins, and Buybacks Historical 10-year constituent turnover for S&P 500 Index Touching on Meb Faber's observation of both Gold and the S&P 500 above 25% return for year Small caps lowest bull market return covering 13 bull markets since 1949 Apple earnings and the option volatility Cost of the Apple straddle a week before earnings Uber's implied volatility pre-earnings week Spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year treasury yield What if mortgage rates and long bonds go up not down? MBS bonds (mortgage backed securities) nuances     Mentioned in this Episode   Goldman Sachs forward baseline 3% annual return forecast next 10 years full report https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.pdf   Vanguard June 30th 2024 10 year forward returns forecast https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html#:~:text=The%20largest%20shift%20was%20in,Capital%20Markets%20Model%20(VCMM) Mortgage Spreads and The Yield Curve Economic Brief Richmond Federal Reserve Bank https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2023/eb_23-27 Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com         296

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are discussing what segments of the market are now working on in October plus whether new auto loan delinquencies are something to worry about. Then, reacting to Barron's headline saying Warren Buffett selling Apple shares may have resulted in leaving $25 billion on the table. Later, they get into whether the comparisons of Nvidia today to Cisco in the late nineties is a fare comparison and if Nvidia is as overvalued as Cisco was in retrospect. Finally, they delve into the options action on Netflix and earnings, S&P 500 Index changes, and whether this bull market is young or really young depending on how you gauge the start of one.   Russell 2000 Index vs S&P 500 Index vs Nasdaq 100 Index performance in October Auto Loan Serious Delinquent by 90 days move up to 2011 highs The age of the bull market and length of previous bull markets When do bull markets begin? CSCO Cisco Systems vs NVDA Nvidia  comparisons Forward PE ratio of Nvidia today vs CSCO in 1999 and 2000 Net profit margins comparing NVDA today to CSCO in late nineties early 2000's Barron's article saying Berkshire left $25 billion on the table by selling Apple shares Amentum AMTM joins the S&P 500 Index while BBWI Bath & Body Works exits Netflix option volatility at earnings Would the long or short straddle have worked after earnings on Netflix?     Mentioned in this Episode   Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities https://open.spotify.com/episode/6U5IIpZmeY3s01GsUS0trt?si=a9a3be7a9a504882   Guggenheim info on Historical cycle trend periods https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/interactive-tools/dow-jones-historical-trends   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn't around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX earnings and what the options market is saying plus a few other companies including United Healthcare.   The level of the VIX Index at all-time S&P 500 Index highs and the next 60 days, 3&6 months Does where the VIX Index is at all-time market highs really matter? The Fed's elusive 2% target when looking at monthly data back to January of 2012 How often the year over year (YoY) percent change in CPI is at different levels VIX Index vs bond volatility seen via the MOVE Index Netflix (NFLX) and United Healthcare (UNH) options market pre-earnings check in Implied volatility of options prior to earnings releases Predictions for the November Fed meeting Quarterly earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index over the next two years are bullish Reviewing the Russell 2000 Index earnings estimates and how lofty they are currently Looking at growth of next 12 months earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index itself   Mentioned in this Episode   VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uOX1CRDw8T9q1lNpx2lHc?si=2078c3e6fbec4a2c   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli ask whether the VIX is too high given markets are at all-time highs and compare today to some previous periods. Then, they delve into the employment report which surprised in a positive way. Was good news good news for once? What this means for probabilities of future rate cuts by the Fed, the port strike that wrapped up, and a look at some individual tickers and markets from a technical analysis standpoint. Resistance, support, wedges and more on this week's episode.   Why is the VIX so high with the market at all-time highs VIX historically at market all-time highs Looking at 2000 and 2007 VIX at all-time market highs Dissecting the employment report Why good news is bad news for those wanting massive rate cuts Looking at bond yields since the first Fed rate cut The port strike wraps itself up which is good news for markets Technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index, Apple, Nvidia, and more     Mentioned in this Episode   S&P 500 Going to 7000? | NAV Erosion Myth | Fed HAS Cut Rates at All-Time Highs| China & Emerging Markets Surge | Answering Audience Questions https://open.spotify.com/episode/4rcKF9Df3YNHkBrlY2yekg?si=253cf93f379a4111   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com              

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli this week answer some audience questions plus comparing 1995 first Fed rate cut to today's market and asking if the next year can be a repeat of the 1995-96 period. They also dispel the myth that the Fed has never cut rates when markets are at all-time highs. Later, they look at the China and Emerging markets surge after the Chinese government does a bunch of things to juice markets. In the questions Derek and Jay dispel some myths between NAV erosion and NAV decline. All this and more this week on the Broke Pie Chart Podcast.   Similarities between 1995 and 2024 Fed rates cuts Why longer duration bond yields may go up not down post Fed rate cut Emerging market finally having its day in the sun? China markets go crazy after government stimulus announced. What does NAV (Net Asset Value) or price mean? NAV Erosion vs NAV Decline explained Interest rate changes effect on option prices The least popular option Greek Rho comes into play Fed cuts when markets are at all-time highs Recession or no recession determining next year's market returns Oil prices, container shipping rates,       Mentioned in this Episode   Fed Goes Big | Market Performance After Rate Cuts | Election Volatility in VIX Futures Is a Crowded Trade | Year End S&P 500 Predictions https://open.spotify.com/episode/3se9kb5ew488TPYKoVohgn?si=FLXDtZz0TgSKo5f1d-aQjg   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to do a post Fed 50 basis point cut analysis. What typically happens a year later in markets after the first interest rate cut? Maybe there isn't election volatility priced into the VIX and it's all to do with interest rates. Plus, looking back at the S&P 500 year end 2024 predictions top investment banks made in December of 2023. Hint, it didn't go the way they expected. How many new all-time highs have we had this year and how does that compare with past years?   More all-time highs All-time highs by month Will the market go to 6000? Jay Powell goes big but what does it mean for markets? Contrarian corner TIPS Bond ETFs and Gold VIX Futures over the next couple months     Mentioned in this Episode   Fed Decision Primer | CPI Disappoints? | Market Breakout or Breakdown? | Too Many Cuts Priced In? https://open.spotify.com/episode/6eFhqLyirKKiHKl7yYVDNV?si=08e63f4f058a4d44   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore covers what you need to know going into the fed meeting. Plus, reviewing whether the Fed has ever cut rates with a forward price to earnings ratios this high? Then looking at potential technical analysis outcomes on the S&P 500 Index include a cup with handle, triple top, and more.   Historical Forward PE ratios at Fed cuts VIX Index doesn't go berserk during Wednesday's CPI selloff and recovery Is the market pricing in too many future fed cuts Comparing CPI Supercore, CPI Core, and CPI from a month over month annualized basis Does CPI tell us anything about future Fed cuts? What is a cup and handle technical pattern? What is a triple top technical pattern?     Mentioned in this Episode   Will There or Won't There Be a Recession? | Size of First Fed Rate Cut?| Stocks Get Cheaper | Why VIX is Tough to Trade https://open.spotify.com/episode/2PzBKek4qM4HfJQGodsxea?si=9vkdi40ETayaVFPiUlHMOQ   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com                

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to talk employment, Fed cuts, recession (or not), forward earnings multiples, VIX, VVIX, crude oil recession sign, currencies, and more!   Looking at 3 2024 stock market selloffs this year Crude oil as a recession indicator? Currencies and Commodities driving stocks right now? Why markets may be trading on technical VIX and VVIX goings on Why VIX is tough to trade S&P 500 Index forward earnings and multiples First rate cut isn't always the biggest Response rates of employment surveys Non-farm payrolls Unemployment report breakdown and factors US Dollar Japanese Yen pair resumes Yen strengthening     Mentioned in this Episode   All the News is Out? | Nvidia Earnings Breakdown | Implied Volatility and Earnings for Nvidia | Is the long bond trade getting crowded? https://open.spotify.com/episode/2LsHNmpPGY3jKpfS9WnjVt?si=21de3281be394249   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com          

Derek Moore is back to break down Nvidia's beat, but not beat (whisper number), their growth year over year, their profit margins, and percent they beat on the top and bottom line. Then, looking at the implied volatility and expected move post earnings in Nvidia and how to calculate it. Understanding why sometimes a long straddle option position before earnings makes money and other times it doesn't. Later, peeking in at the implied Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for the September meeting. Finally, “everyone” seems to be saying its time to buy longer maturity bonds. Is that view getting crowded and why will or won't long rates move lower because the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate.    Nvidia earning beat but misses the “whisper” number After hours trading reaction to Nvidia earnings Difference between Gross profit and Net profit Nvidia's massive profit margins compared to grocery stores Earning growth year over year Implied volatility pre-earnings to compute the implied expected stock move Why option premiums and volatility rise before earnings announcements How implied volatility gets sucked out of markets post earnings Long Straddles at the money before earnings characteristics and risks The Fed is expected to lower the front part of the interest rate curve What does that mean for the back half of the longer duration bond maturities? The spread between the 10-year treasury bond and the 30-year mortgage rate Hindenburg Research negative piece on Super Micro Computer SMCI     Mentioned in this Episode   Hindenburg negative research on Super Micro Computer https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/   Jay Powell & The “Good Ship Transitory” | Price Caps Proposed by Politicians | Huge Employment Revisions | US Dollar Breaking Down? https://open.spotify.com/episode/09SZBfu7OSlh5ygHONqY1s?si=SwTdDLMUQS67KHvCjNkZMA   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli once again are here to break down the Jay Powell Jackson Hole statement and the market reaction including latest interest rate projections. Then they comment on the idea proposed by politicians of price caps and whether companies are making record profits based on net profit margins. Later they discussed the huge revision lower in employment number in the establishment survey and whether it's a big deal or now and why the difference between the monthly releases and the first preliminary annual revision. Finally, they discuss the positive of the US Dollar potentially breaking down for US companies and the latest in volatility markets.   Jay Powell Fed signals the time is now to change policy The “Goodship Transitory” and Jay Powell Fed funds interest rate projections Whether the Fed raising or lowering interest rates made any impact Huge first preliminary revision by 800k in the establishment employment survey What Goldman Sachs cited for the reason in the revisions in data Difference between the monthly employment numbers and these annual revisions US Dollar index and how a lower dollar helps multinational US company earnings Politicians are talking price caps and why those never work Examining a few companies net profit margins to see if they are actually making record profits Volatility markets including the VIX and VVIX     Mentioned in this Episode   Fastest Correction Ever? | VIX Index Collapse Post Spike | Will the Fed Push Back on a 50 bps Interest Rate Cut? | Latest Inflation Analysis and Soft, Hard, or No Landing? https://open.spotify.com/episode/1L5RNtfOKAc59TtOODf1dK?si=dzldc_NFSuKuve7nkZc4Ig   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to discuss the surge and record collapse back below 17.6 in the VIX Index. Plus, Reviewing the difference between the VIX Index (not tradable) and VIX Futures relative spike levels. Then, they go into the latest CPI numbers including CPI Supercore to see what is sticky and what is negative. Finally, they discuss whether Chairman Jerome Powel is going to disappoint markets with only a 25-bps cut when everyone seems to want more. All that and more including the yield curve inversion, mentions of job cuts vs AI on earnings calls in Q2, expectations for a soft, hard, or no landing and what the heck that even means.   VIX only takes 7 days to go back below 17.6 after spiking above 35 Comparing previous VIX Index surges and length to come back down Difference between hard , soft, and no landings Fed prepares for Jackson Hole meetings and sure to signal its interest rate intentions Will Powell and the Fed disappoint markets? Chance that Powel pushes back to not be bullied into rate cuts Mentions of AI on corporate earnings calls vs mentions of job cuts and employment Inverted yield curve and what the 2-year bond is predicting for rates in the future Fed balance sheet below the radar Will Fed stop letting treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds run off the balance sheet? Comparing current and past VIX spikes against the relative spike level of the VIX futures     Mentioned in this Episode   Panic Overdone? | VIX 3rd Highest Spike Ever | How the Strategies Held Up | Short Volatility Trades https://open.spotify.com/episode/2mF1zkDaqWZLRhumfs0VJh?si=j5sn9DZpS3mmyM3Y5VM_1A   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com  

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli jumped on a special edition podcast to discuss whether the move in things like the VIX and VIX were warranted given the technical surroundings of the carry trade and where markets went. Looking back at previous VIX spikes and the high yield spread in times of crisis. Plus, discussing how some strategies held up and some insights into what went on. Finally, what a higher volatility regime would mean for strategies that sell options like covered calls or high probability credit spreads.   VIX 3rd highest spike in history going back to 1992 VVIX 4th highest spike ever Comparing the VIX Index spike to the High Yield Spread There was no VIX Index back in 1987 but estimates say it would have been highest ever Are there currently structural problems showing in the US Economy? Unemployment rate up due to increase in population and size of labor force Explaining the VVIX Index Warren Buffet comment about whether you should be invested in stocks People don't make good investment decisions when they panic Market performance historically after major VIX spikes Comparing the carry trade blowup to August 2015 drop due to the Chinese Yuan move     Mentioned in this Episode   Podcast Market Volatility | Yen Carry Trade Unwind Explained | High Yield Holds Up | Dissecting the Unemployment Rate Rise Causes https://open.spotify.com/episode/4aBJMdpmanE3Anncxlzfqs?si=zflHqMZuS7OZ5cAL0ae0Sg   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com  

Derek Moore is back to talk through the latest market volatility as the VIX and VVIX both spiked this week. Markets had 2 greater than 2% pullbacks. Reading into the latest unemployment rate data. Plus, unpacking the unwinding of the carry trade involving the Japanese Yen and how this started before the recent market retracement. Finally, examining the high yield bond market as it has shown positive non-correlation with equities of late.   What does a currency Carry Trade mean? What is the carry trade unwinding mean? Why carry trades may show leverage in the system that causes ripples in financial markets S&P 500 Index back to levels not seen since….June 7th Unpacking the unemployment rate and how the rate rose even though more people working Explaining the VVIX Index VIX and VVIX spike this week with the market volatility Comparing returns since the July 16th all-time high of equities vs high yield bonds     Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com        

Derek Moore is back to take some listener questions on the political ramifications for the stock market, covered calls, and other general market and option questions. Also, he'll cover the continued coverage of the market broadening out in its participation especially from small caps and the non-mag-7 companies. What about on the economic front? All this and more this week. What political party is better for the stock market? Does it matter who is in office? Google earnings announcement $1Billion in quarterly profit Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index shows weakness Shipping container rates continue rising What does the perception of lower rates and strong earnings mean for stocks? Why do people sell covered calls? Why are options more expensive around earnings announcements? Who is on the other side of my option trade and does it matter?     Mentioned in this Episode   Download white paper on concentrated stock management with options https://static.twentyoverten.com/5b313bf81c53ec3270915df3/27gJFrs2H/Concentrated-stock-positions-Full-White-Paper.pdf   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore looks beyond mega cap tech by examining while this month the S&P 500 Index is relatively flat, equal weight and extended markets catch a bid. Plus, talk of a tight high yield spread but what does that mean? Later, looking at the upcoming earnings including Tesla and Google. Finally, reviewing typical VIX seasonality patterns. Earnings including Tesla and Google this week Performance of the S&P 500 Index against extended markets and equal weight S&P 500 Index Comparing the S&P 500 against international developed markets and emerging markets Comparing the VXF etf and RSP etf against the S&P 500 Index Why protecting with buffers and/or hedges can help assuage short term market worries What is the high yield spread? Comparing the current high yield spread against recent history What does it mean when the high yield spread gets tight Largest companies in the Nasdaq 100 Index in March of 2000 VIX Seasonality patters What did the VIX and VVIX do this week? What have the EEM etf and EFA etf do this week on the international front?   Mentioned in this Episode   Where to find the High Yield Spread https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2/   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com                            

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back together to discuss what happens after the Fed makes its first rate cut historically in markets. Plus, what if everyone is wrong about rate cuts? Then, they look at the historical spread between inflation and the Fed Funds rate plus how would investors take the other side of rate cuts? Finally, they discuss the idea of this being the 1990s all over again with AI as a technological revolution like the internet boom?   Earnings season is in full bloom Fed Funds rate vs the YoY CPI Inflation comparison Why historically Fed Funds does not have to equal annual inflation What is the Fed afraid of? Nasdaq Composite returns after major releases of new technologies Record call volume on the IWM ETF (Russell 2000) Total return for markets 12 months post 1st rate cut going back to 1974 Implied interest rate based on fed funds futures VIX and the market both go up?   Mentioned in this Episode   Podcast 1994-95 All Over Again in Markets? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore is back to discuss the recent talk from the “talking heads on TV” that the economy is weakening. What are they looking at and are they right? Then Derek explains using Tesla as an example of implied volatility going higher while a stock runs higher. Reviewing the latest nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and initial jobless claims. Finally, Derek goes through what happens when markets go up from a fundamental standpoint including Forward PE multiples changing, earnings estimates, share buybacks, and dividend yield. All of this and more on this week's episode.    Tesla implied volatility surges along with its stock price Why volatility can go higher even when markets or stocks don't go down Is the economy weakening? Reviewing the economic surprise index and what it measures Share buyback yield Share buybacks effect on EPS Dividend yields as a contribution to total return Forward PE multiples and effects on market prices Forward earnings estimate on the S&P 500 Index companies How companies joining and leaving the S&P 500 Index can affect earnings Looking at college bachelor's degree and higher unemployment rate for clues Atlanta Fed GDP Now   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com  

Derek Moore is back to discuss the WSJ article comparing Nvidia to Cisco and Jim Cramer's response. Is Nvidia in a bubble?   Wall Street Journal Article on Cisco 2000 vs Nvidia 2024 Forward PE multiples then and now Cisco vs Nvidia Data showing bull markets often continue the second half of the year When markets are up 10% first half of the year what happens next? Don't give up on the bull market yet based on data? Implied Volatility spikes in France compared to Germany What does 100% Moneyness mean in options speak? Explaining option moneyness at different levels How does July stack up against other months of the year for S&P 500 returns? August and July market returns in Election years Inflation PCE cools while PCE Services less housing still elevated YoY Container shipping rates rising again to highest level since September 2022 French CAC 40 Market near 10% drawdown from highs   Mentioned in this Episode   WSJ article comparing Cisco in 2000 vs Nvidia in 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/nvidia-is-no-cisco-but-it-is-getting-expensive-1938fcc0   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore is back to go over some bullish and bearish economic and market items. Avocado prices are spiking while lumber prices are falling. Divergence between the Trucking Tonnage Index vs the S&P 500 Index. Later we discuss the lack of historical volatility in the market given we haven't had a greater than 2.05% down day for over 375 days. Then taking listener questions around the probability a market goes up or down 9.8% and what goes into calculating option probabilities. Finally, Derek explains the “Volatility Problem” from a listener question comparing the difference between average returns and CAGR compounded annualized growth rate.   What is the volatility problem? CAGR Compounded Annualized Growth Rate Average return vs CAGR return and why it matters Avocado vs Lumber prices Trucking Tonnage Index vs the S&P 500 Index EconPi median of coordinates showing decline quad for economy Economic surprise index explained Why hedging makes sense to manage volatility   Mentioned in this Episode   Econ PI site http://econpi.com/index.php   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag     Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com        

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial are back with a Fed meeting day edition where they break down the new end of year interest rate dot plots and Jay Powell's press conference. Plus, they riff on Harry Dent's latest prediction saying Nvidia is going down 98% and why the doom and gloom crowd are harmful to investors. Later discussing Apple's breakout after their AI announcement at WWDC conference and the reaction to the CPI inflation print. All this and more!   Apple's AI WWDC announcement reaction by the stock market Apple vs Nvidia vs Microsoft for the title of largest market cap Buy the Rumor Sell the News Buy the News on Apple Post Fed Meeting announcement reaction Fed newest Dot plots and what they say for the year end target for interest rates The fed funds futures moves intraday How to calculate the implied fed funds rate Inflation print comes in light but year over year numbers still above Fed's target How the CPI Supercore is still running over 4.8% year over year Harry Dent says markets are going to crash but has said the same thing over and over again Why doom and gloom predictions are harmful for investors Reviewing some past Harry Dent prognostication Harry Dent says Nvidia may go down 98% while the Nasdaq will see a -92% crash Battle for the largest market cap between Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft gets interesting     Mentioned in this Episode   Harry Dent predicts Nasdaq to crash 92% https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/boy-this-is-over-economist-harry-dent-predicts-98-crash-in-nvidia-92-drop-in-nasdaq-heres-why-11718162529764.html   CBS News article “Harry Dent and the chamber of poor returns” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/harry-dent-and-the-chamber-of-poor-returns/     GameStop Option Bets | S&P Too Top Heavy? | Nvidia Passes Apple | Upcoming Banking Problems from Mortgages? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gamestop-option-bets-s-p-too-top-heavy-nvidia-passes/id1432836154?i=1000658371572   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag     Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial look at some what seem like crazy options trades in GameStop. Plus, examining Nvidia passing Apple as the second largest stock in the S&P 500, and can it pass Microsoft for #1? They also talk about whether it's a problem the top 4 stocks in the S&P 500 make up such a large percentage of the weighting and comparing it to the last time it was this high. Later they take some listener questions including whether the data shows cracks in the regional banks due to mortgage delinquencies, what happened in the unemployment report, and more.   Unemployment reaches 4% Top 4 companies in the S&P 500 Index highest since the 1960's Comparing the contribution to returns S&P 500 Index top 496 vs the top 3 and Nvidia Residential mortgage delinquencies and effect on regional banks FDIC quarterly data on the health of banks Nvidia passes Apple for #2 as its market cap exceeds Apples but will Microsoft be next? 1964 vs 2024 top 4 company weighting in the S&P 500 Index Now the top 4 companies today are a lot more diverse business GameStop options trading Looking at the 128 calls open interest, volume and probabilities next 2 weekly expirations Volatility in the GameStop option chain   Mentioned in this Episode   Mortgage Bankers Association data on residential mortgage delinquencies https://usreop.com/mba-chart-of-the-week-seriously-delinquent-rates-by-loan-type-conventional-fha-va-may-17-2024/   Delinquency rates on commercial real estate loans from FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS   CNBC piece on potential cracks in the banking system https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/where-cracks-in-the-banking-sector-may-appear-without-more-ma.html   Crazy VIX Bets Due to Election? | Market Reversal | Home Ownership Affordability Today | Shiller PE https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crazy-vix-bets-due-to-election-market-reversal-home/id1432836154?i=1000657610266   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag     Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial review some interesting VIX option trades around the election and around inauguration day in 2025 compared to the next few months options action. When young people say home ownership dreams are dead is that true? Surprising numbers to compare inflation adjusted costs. Plus, on Friday the market swung from down over 1% to up almost 1% as we continue to be in a buy the dip regime. Later discussing the evolving Fed rate cut expectations and why it shouldn't be a surprise. Finally, they go bring up container shipping costs rising again and what that means for inflation, the Presidential election market cycle, history of interest rates, and more.   Looking at VIX trades far out of the money around election and inauguration day Are retail investors making bets on a rise in volatility due to the election? Why trading VIX options can be frustrating and may be misused by retail traders Home ownership dreams dead for young people? Comparing a monthly mortgage payment today on an inflation adjusted basis to historical Home prices compared on an inflation adjusted basis History of interest rates over 5000 years Container shipping costs on the rise Share buybacks at highest level over the last couple years and what that means for earnings Friday's huge market reversal going from down to up in the last hour Fed rate cut expectations through the end of 2024 down from 7 cuts to 1 cut 4th year of the Presidential cycle and the S&P 500 Index What Shiller Cape ratio means for returns over the next 10 years Cape PE ration and Price to Free Cash Flow   Mentioned in this Episode   History of Interest Rates book by Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla https://amzn.to/3V3TNEJ   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag     Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial talk about Nvidia's earnings report and how they are catching up to Apple in total market cap. Will they cash Microsoft? Then they note the percentage of companies mentioning AI on earnings calls. What does that mean for CAPEX spending on semiconductor chips? Later they look at how housing prices after a small drop are now growing YoY despite higher interest rates and higher payment per median home price. The gold rally now one is noticing in 2024. A little Japan 10-year bond talk as rates hit 1%. Finally, Jay and Derek talk about how rates are staying higher for longer and the market might need to get over it while the “threat” of lowering rates might help markets.   Earnings mentions of AI on earnings conference calls surge Nvidia is catching up to Apple in market cap What is market cap and how to compute it? Surprising market cap size for one semiconductor company. Comparing S&P 500 Index market return paths since 1990 Is 2024 the new 1995 for S&P 500 returns? Nvidia stock price growth vs income and revenue growth last 10 years Now investors don't thing there is a chance for a recession Investor sentiment or likelihood of recession being high might be contrarian indicator University of Michigan inflation expectations over next 5 years surges Historical asset class by year returns Gold still rallying but does anyone care? One family home sales median price year over year price change growth Charting monthly mortgage payment on purchasing a median priced home Japanese 10 year bonds hit 1% Why investing for longer means your win probability gets really high   Mentioned in this Episode   Roaring Kitty Tweets and Gamestop rises and falls https://open.spotify.com/episode/5PtbYzdRunB7UPJRWQaXYK?si=OkMXUjOnQRGaJ2OZY-y8YQ   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag     Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com