IHS Markit | Economics & Country Risk

Supply chain disruptions, persistent inflation and the removal of pandemic-related government support and accommodative monetary policy provided a challenging economic environment in 2022. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the upheaval in processed materials and commodities markets – especially for energy – took those challenges to a new and more pernicious level. How will the global economy fare in 2023 as markets, firms and consumers continue to adjust to the confluence of these major headwinds? S&P Global Market Intelligence economists reveal our top 10 predictions for the global economy in 2023, including the prospects for taming inflation, the extent of monetary policy tightening, and the likelihood of a global recession. Chris Varvares, Vice President and co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/varvares-chris Sara Johnson, Executive Director of Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/johnson-sara Todd Lee, Executive Director and Chief China Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/lee-todd Joel Prakken, Vice President and Chief U.S. Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/prakken-joel Ken Wattret, Vice President and Head of Europe in Economics and Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/wattret-ken

What trends and events are expected to shape the economies of sub-Saharan Africa in 2023? We discuss inflation, interest rates, elections and more. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Electrical steel is a niche product that is essential for making transformers, generators and electric motors. While it only constitutes about 1% of global steel production today, it is poised to grow exponentially along with the electric vehicle market. In 2022, about 9 million EVs will be produced globally. By the beginning of the next decade, the EV market is expected to break 40 million vehicles. Our experts discuss the challenges and opportunities presented by this new and burgeoning market for electrical steel. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john Frank Hoffman, Consulting Principal, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/hoffman-frank.html

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was Brazil's president from 2003 to 2010, will return to office in January after winning the presidential election by the narrowest margin in the country's political history. This time, he faces different political and fiscal environments. How will he handle that? Our experts discuss the policy outlook for the incoming administration and how those policies will impact businesses and the economy. Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/caicedo-carlos Ailsa Rosales, Senior Country Risk Analyst, Latin America and Caribbean, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/rosales-ailsa.html Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America & Caribbean Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/amiel-rafael

Tune in for the latest trends seen in our Purchasing Managers Index data. Our economists discuss the strength of Middle East economies and challenges facing economies within Africa. They also look at what's driving the rise in global manufacturing stocks of finished goods and highlight a new data set within the PMI offering that aims to quantify the impact of common themes like demand inflation and delivery times. Paul Smith, Director for Economic Indices at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew David Owen, economist for Economic Indices at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/owen-david.html

Having the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP27, in Egypt naturally shines a spotlight on the policies African nations are considering on energy transition and decarbonization — and the financing of those efforts. Our experts discuss financing options including carbon credits and loss and damage payments for countries vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. What impact will tightening global financial conditions and the energy security needs of Europe have on these efforts? Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo William Farmer, Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/farmer-william.html

Do you dream about renovating your home? Are you wondering whether rising interest rates, inflation and labor issues will turn that dream into a nightmare? Two of our experts discuss the near-term outlook for home improvement spending, which reached an all-time high in 2021. Scott Hazelton, Director, Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hazelton-scott Alex Cotter, Consulting Director, Consumer goods, manufacturing and financial services, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/cotter-alex

Bargain hunting is coming back into fashion this holiday season as inflation drives up prices and inventories remain high for certain categories of goods. Two of our US economic experts discuss the resilience of US consumer spending and factors influencing holiday shopping including commodity prices, labor costs and supply chains. Michael Zdinak, S&P Global Market Intelligence Akshat Goel, Senior Economist, US Macro and Consumer Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/goel-akshat

Energy markets will be tight everywhere through the end of 2022 and start of 2023. Europe has the highest likelihood of lack of availability of natural gas, and in some cases, electricity, after Russia reduced natural gas exports to the region, Our experts discuss the outlook for the energy markets globally and the likely impacts of high costs on energy-intensive industries like glass and steel. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john Thomas McCartin, Senior Economist, Pricing & Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mccartin-thomas

Armed conflict has broken out in Ethiopia and insurgents have delayed the development of liquified natural gas facilities in Mozambique. Our sub-Saharan Africa country risk and economics experts discuss how these conflicts are adding significant additional uncertainty to the economic policy environment, worsening international relations and impacting manufacturing and exports.

Where should you build your next hotel or export office? Our expert talks about the five-year outlook for global construction and which markets are attractive for investment based on our regional data and country risk scores. Spoiler alert: London makes the cut. Scott Hazelton, director of consulting, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hazelton-scott

Our economists discuss dominant themes through the lenses of our Purchasing Managers' Index data sets. What are the recent trends in the Australian private sector economy? What does the data from Taiwan, a bellwether of global manufacturing, tell us? How is tighter monetary policy impacting real estate and other sectors? Where are we seeing supply constraints? Paul Smith, Economics Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew Laura Denman, Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The risk for metals pricing and availability in 2023 is extreme and it is to the upside. That's mainly because energy prices are high and energy availability is under threat, particularly in Europe. Other factors that may impact metals prices include extreme weather and supply chain disruptions. Our experts discuss what category managers should consider when locking in prices for 2023. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

Companies are considering nearshoring, or relocating operations closer to destination markets, in response to recent supply chain shocks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to China's dynamic COVID containment policy. Mexico is well placed to benefit from nearshoring, given its strong interdependence with the US economy. Our experts discuss the opportunities for Mexico's economy and key industries including semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging, as well as risks for companies considering nearshoring to Mexico. Link to blog: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/mexico-nearshoring-potential-for-critical-minerals.html Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily Jose Sevilla-Macip, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/Macip-Jose Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America & Caribbean Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/amiel-rafael

How can you capture commodities price volatility in your supply contracts and mitigate your risk? Our experts discuss how to balance risk between parties using price mechanisms. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john Laura Hodges, Vice President, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hodges-laura

Dealing with high inflation is never simple. With stagflation, it's even more complicated. The Fed is sending clear signals that controlling inflation is its top priority and could come at the expense of employment and economic growth. That would raise the risk of stagflation and have ripple effects across the globe. Our experts discuss the drivers and economic impacts of higher inflation. Amanda Eglinton, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/eglinton-amanda Chris Varvares, Vice President and co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/varvares-chris Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/williamson-chris John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john Todd C. Lee, Chief China Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/lee-todd

A slowdown in food and oil prices could bring inflation down in the sub-Saharan African region in the coming months, although the downward path will be slow and coming from very high levels. Pressures on household income will remain very prevalent. Our experts discuss what this means for social unrest and political developments in the sub-Saharan African region over the next six months and potential hotspots to monitor. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Martin Roberts, Principal Analyst, Deputy Head - Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/roberts-martin Theophilus Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk, Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Jordan Anderson, Senior Analyst, Research Advisory Specialty Solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-jordan

Lumber prices have dropped sharply in recent months, leading other commodities down from the levels seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A surge in home prices and an uptick in mortgage rates have deterred home buyers, home renovators and builders, dampening demand for lumber. Our commodities experts discuss the outlook for prices that are still higher than their pre-pandemic averages. John Anton, director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-John Deni Koenhemsi, associate director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/koenhemsi-deni

Increased pricing pressures are being felt across the Sub-saharan Africa. Banks have hiked their policy rates by 100, 150 and even 200 bases points dependent on the market. Utilizing our nowcasting PMI data and our forecasting data our regional experts delve into the key differentiators between SSA data and our developed markets data to get a better picture of the underlying pressures impacting the local economies and what we can expect in the months ahead. Thea Fourie Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Langelihle Malimela Senior Analyst, Country Risk, Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Ronel Oberholzer, Principal Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence Andrew Harker Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew

With a decrease in food outputs linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, how are businesses and governments coping with rising food costs and the knock-on inflationary effects? Our experts assess the on-the-ground realities to understand the implications for long-term growth and stability. John Raines, PhD, Director, Country Risk (moderator) Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist Paul Hughes, Chief Agricultural Economist & Director of Research, Agribusiness Alex Kokcharov, Principal Research Analyst, Russia Jihane Boudiaf, Country Risk Analyst, Middles East and Africa

While digital technology allows people to connect at unprecedented scale and speed without concern for proximity, it has also allowed malicious actors to do the same. Sharing innovations, skills, and tools, cyber-threat actors present a growing concern to governments and businesses as attacks become increasingly frequent and complex. The influx of remote workforces, new technologies, and growing geopolitical tensions have created opportunities for cyber criminals and state actors to take advantage of company vulnerabilities. Our experts discuss the evolving nature of the threats facing firms and how organizations are attempting to counteract these ongoing dangers. John Raines, PhD, Director, Country Risk (moderator) Scott Crawford, Research Director, Security, 451 Research Cassandra Pagan, Consulting Principal, Cyber and Quantification Jordan Anderson, Senior analyst, County Risk Read more: ihsmarkit.com/ecr

Local COVID-related lockdowns in mainland China, the war in Ukraine, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the global economy – especially in China and surrounding geographies. Our PMI surveys are showing some of the steepest reductions in overall Chinese business activity and new orders since the initial wave of the pandemic in 2020. Digging deeper into the underlying numbers, our PMI team discusses what this all means for manufacturing health, labor markets, and local policy. Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director, Economic Indices Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indices

A number of critical elections in 2022 will influence more than who holds political office. With a rapidly shifting political landscape and an ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, we are watching the lead-up and outcomes closely to understand the direct influence the results will have on trade policy, security, migration, supply chains, and climate agendas. Our Economics & Country Risk experts discuss the importance to your business of upcoming elections in the United States, Australia, Brazil, and Colombia and the influence these will have beyond country borders. John Raines, Ph.D., Director, Country Risk (moderator) Chris Varvares, Vice President, US Economics Carlos Caicedo, Associate Director, Latin America Hannah Cotillon, Senior Analyst, Asia Bree Neff, Economics Director, Asia

Join our metals experts, John Anton and John Mothersole as they delve into the volatility of metals pricing in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and with the growing COVID-19 outbreak in China. These two factors two factors are placing immense stress on steel, copper, and aluminum markets. And while we usually hear a singular global story – this month regions are telling their own pricing tales. What does this mean for buyers, manufacturers, and consumers? How high is too high? John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john John Mothersole, Research Director, Pricing and Purchasing https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

Like most of the world, the Sub-Saharan African region is only slowly starting to recover from the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. With growing supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and growing uncertainty due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the region is facing additional recovery challenges. Our experts discuss the sharp escalation in global food prices, such as wheat and cooking oil; the implications of the high oil price in the region; and consequences of disruptive trade flows. Can the region make a rebound? The answer is complicated. Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Ronel Oberholzer, Principal Economist Archbold Macheka, Economist, Sub Saharan Africa https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/macheka-archbold The contents of this podcast was created by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global. ihsmarkit.com/ecr

Our PMI(TM) team digs into the February PMI survey results which indicate waning impacts from COVID-19 on the services economies and large bounces across the Globe. While several countries are still feeling the pressures from lockdowns and continuing waves of uncertainty, improving demand, capacity and business confidence are showing positive signs of improvement. The team also addresses the impact of firms passing on rising operating costs to end users and clients. What will this mean for sustained economic growth and are these ripples and waves strong enough to continue to improve with rising geopolitical turmoil? Paul Smith, Director, PMI https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html Joseph Hayes, Senior Economist, PMI https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hayes-joseph Andrew Harker, Director, PMI https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew The contents of this podcast were published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

Pricing pressures on nonferrous metals have negatively impacted the machinery and equipment categories – specifically electrical machinery. If we layer on supply issues around transformers, motors, and generators we are facing a whole new challenge around availability and cost. And this time it could hit the consumer wallet. What's behind the long lead times and shortages? What will this mean for refrigerator motors, electric car motors, and more? Our pricing and purchasing team tackle the real story in this new supply chain disruption. John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html Maxwell Clarke https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/clarke-maxwell.html

Commodity prices experience huge spikes over the past two years. We are beginning to see escalation rates slow for many raw materials. However, between rising inflation rates and growing consumer demand, pricing pressures are being felt by the end consumer. Our pricing and purchasing team digs in to understand how inflation, cost of good, labor costs, and commodity prices are going to fair in the near-term. John Mothersole https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

The US Federal Reserve is expected to start rate tightening in March. What will this mean for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with less solid macroeconomic fundamentals? Our Africa team discusses which countries are at most risk, how they could secure debt restructuring, how they will be impacted by rising inflation, and if security developments will influence fiscal developments across the region. Thea Fourie https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Chris Suckling https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/suckling-chris Alisa Strobel https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

Volatility shocks to a wide range of sectors will likely continue for much of the year ahead. Not only are global threats increasing, but they're also becoming intertwined. In this week's episode, listen in as our experts uncover the critical dynamics of today's localized conflicts, the shift towards climate justice, and an intensifying competition for critical resources. Link to webcast: https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3595132/22ECBA9DC6C4501EB741C5C413C24D30?partnerref=Ondemand-podcast

Immigration has quickly become one of the frontline issues affecting the stability of societies and economies. Traditional drivers of irregular migration, such as economic stress, security, and conflict, are likely to intensify in the coming year. Stalled economic recoveries, climate and environmental stressors, and the political weaponization of migration are driving additional risks. Our experts delve into the impact of migration on economies, security, supply chains, and policy. John Raines, PhD, Associate Director, Head of North America Country Risk (moderator) Lindsay Newman Ph.D., Director, Economics & Country Risk Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing Blanka Kolenikova, Associate Director, Europe & CIS, Country Risk Jose Sevilla-Macip, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk

Our sub-Saharan research team discusses the current political challenges connected to elections, and pre-elections, in South Africa and Nigeria. What are the main social and economic policy issues for the coming year? Is the Covid-19 pandemic still creating social and economic complications and how will this influence voters? And most critically, what role will fuel price pressures and fuel subsidies have on the outcome of these elections? Langelihle Malimela, Country Risk Senior Analyst– Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Martin Roberts, Country Risk Principal Analyst, Deputy Head - Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/roberts-martin Thea Fourie, Economics Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Following on a year of severe supply disruption including weather, trade challenges, and supply chain breakdowns, are chemical markets slowly starting to right themselves? Our Pricing and Purchasing team talks through buying conditions region by region. John Anton Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john Michael Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/dall-michael.html

IHS Markit economists will reveal our top-10 predictions for the global economy in 2022. Topics include the recovery paths of major economies, trends in interest rates and inflation, trade, exchange rates, financial markets, environmental policies post COP26, as well as geopolitical and social unrest risks. Chris Varvares, Co-Head of US Economics (moderator) Joel Prakken, Chief US Economist Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Chief International Economist Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics John Mothersole, Director, Pricing & Purchasing Todd Lee, Chief China Economist Rajiv Biswas, Chief Asia Economist Brian Lawson, Financial Consultant

Like the rest of the world, Sub-Saharan Africa suffered greatly from COVID-19 outbreaks and the resulting lock downs. Our Africa team explores how Africa and constituent countries fared through 2021 and then take us to 2022 and what they see in terms of economic growth, external pressures, rising political challenges, and the threat of civil conflict. Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

Our PMI data have long been used to accurately nowcast - assess the current health of economies. Relying on its early release, well in advance of comparable official data, and its standardized methodology its an accurate early indicator. Our analysts are now using these same attributes to explore how PMI data could help establish whether a currency is over, under, or valued just right. Intrigued? Out PMI research team discusses currency valuations, the impact of price pressures on business performance, and our latest survey results. Read more about this: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/estimating-shortterm-fx-equilibria-using-pmis-Oct21.html Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html Joseph Hayes, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/hayes-joseph.html Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/de-lima-pollyanna.html Andrew Harker, Associate Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html

The United States and the EU have agreed to Section 232 revisions that take effect on 1 January 2022. The new agreement is much like the quota-and-tariff “safeguard” regime already in place in Europe. A certain tonnage may be imported from the EU to the United States tariff-free. After the quota fills, additional tons face a 25% tariff. What will this do to steel prices? How about supply? John Mothersole and John Anton discuss the changes this policy shift will have on markets, manufacturers, and metals buyers. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

What's new in the infrastructure bill and when will we start to see the benefits? Two critical questions to understand when looking at the Infrastructure Bill just passed by the House and Senate. John Anton and John Mothersole sit down to break this big spend bill apart and help us get into the details of the impact to our supply chains, industries, and of course metals markets. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

The news is filled with articles about the semiconductor shortage: how it's impacting car manufacturing, slowing electronics production, and delaying consumer purchases. But what's the real story? How do you pull the facts from the noise? Our research team pulls back the curtain to talk through what they were seeing and watching in the data as this shortage came to the forefront. Watch us put the data to work in our special report: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/critical-supply-chains-mineral-feedstocks-for-batteries.html Chris Suckling, Principal Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/suckling-chris Sian Jones, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/jones-sian.html Yacine Rouimi, Senior Economist, IHS Markit Samuel Champanhet, Director, Comparative Industries, IHS Markit

The concept of social license to operate has been around for a long time in both the mining and energy sectors. Many companies have established practices and strategies in place to work collaboratively with local constituents and organizations. Recently, we are seeing an increased interest outside of these two sectors. What's driving this renewed interest, and does it tie into the growing focus on ESG? Our experts provide some recent examples, best practices, and their insights on what's next.

Having defeated the Afghan government militarily and negotiated the departure of foreign forces from the country, the Taliban's focus is now on forming a government, demonstrating governance capability, and securing international recognition. However, recent Islamic State attacks underline growing terrorism risks and tensions in the region and hint at great challenges ahead. Get the complete story of what is unfolding across the region. John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john Asad Ali, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ali-asad Ludovico Carlino, Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/carlino-ludovico

Choices made today by consumers, corporations, and governments are leading to consequences in the latter half of this century that determine whether we're going to avoid the most serious consequences of climate change. In today's episode we discuss the physical and transitional risk of climate change and how governments are setting policy and corporations are setting strategy to deal with the reality that increased persistent volatility is becoming a chronic condition. John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john Jonathan Ablett, Executive Director, Global Economic Modelling Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ablett-jonathan

Fintech is a major force shaping the structure of the financial industry in Sub Saharan Africa and it is rapidly changing the competitive landscape. Block chain technologies specifically have shown great promise to solve issues around access to banking, money, and mortgages. Across the continent it's also transforming access to energy, education and even healthcare. Is it too good to be true? Should Central Banks race to use digital currency? What should we be thinking about around social economic change, data protection, accountability, regulations and policy? Our analysts talk through this complex issue. Anton Casteleijn, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/casteleijn-anton Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian

Understanding the full scope of the risks underlying your proposed projects is critical – from fiscal risk to political, operational, legal, and security risks. Our experts look at the full risk exposures impacting LNG projects in Mozambique and Tanzania using our country risk investment model. Piero Branella, Associate Director, Risk Intelligence, IHS Markit Roderick Bruce, Research and Analysis Associate Director, E&P Terms and Above-Ground Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/bruce-roderick Eva Renon, Senior Country Risk Analyst, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva Read more: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/country-risk-premiums-quarterly-q3-2021.html

Tight labor markets are causing issues for services and manufacturing industries around the globe. These labor shortages are creating and exacerbating supply chain challenges and will continue to do so for at least the next 12 months. Our pricing team untangles this complicated challenge and explores the structural issues, wage growth pressures, social schemes, and training needs we will face as economic recovery from the pandemic moves forward. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/malin-sophie.html

With growing concerns around the increase in natural disasters, water shortages, and rising temperatures we are closely watching related unrest and even conflict driven by some of implications for climate change. In today's episode we look how these incidents are disrupting regional stability, shaping future policy, shifting economic growth and investment plans, and re-imagining sectors and supply chains. Jordan Anderson, Senior Analyst, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-jordan Jihane Boudiaf, Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/boudiaf-jihane Ailsa Rosales, Country Risk Analyst, Latin America and Caribbean, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/rosales-ailsa.html Diego Iscaro, Senior Economist, Europe Economics https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/iscaro-diego Petya Barzilska, Sr. Research Analyst II, Europe & CIS Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/barzilska-petya

Malaysian factories suffered shutdowns in June due to the rise in Delta variant cases and, as of now, are still not operating at full capacity. Our PMI survey results showed a close-to-record decline in output and new orders. This does not bode well for Malaysian manufacturing, employment, and much needed relief in supply chain delays. But is it all dismal? Perhaps new fiscal policies in Hong Kong SAR offer some hope for recovery? Join our PMI economists as they discuss these issues and more. Paul Smith, Economics Director, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Economics Director, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html Usamah Bhatti, Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/bhatti-usamah.html

Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of the United Party for National Development, won the 12 August Zambian presidential election. In today's episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the important policy interventions we can expect from the new government and what this will mean for economic recovery and debt sustainability going forward. Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-theaTheo Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

In this episode, our Pricing and Purchasing experts looking at the next level downstream at how the changes in commodity prices and shortages are impacting the cost and availability of machinery the machinery and equipment businesses need to operate. With record escalations in almost all commodities, we are just now seeing an explosion in prices in items these inputs feed. It's becoming increasingly difficult for businesses to maintain prices as they once were – what can the market withstand and for how long? Our experts provide some answers. Maxwell Clarke Senior Economist, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/clarke-maxwell John Anton Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john #commodities #supplychain

Often held up as the only democratic success story to come out of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has struggled through a decade of consistent unrest and poor economic growth. This all came to a head on 25 July when president, Kais Saied, activated article 80 of the Constitution thus suspending the activities of parliament and parliamentary immunity, and dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi. Our middle East and North Africa experts sit down to talk about the incidents that led to this soft coup, what we believe is next to come, and how this is going to further influence the economic trajectory of the county. Jack Kennedy, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kennedy-jack-a Yasmin Ghozzi, North Africa Senior Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit Ludovico Carlino, Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/carlino-ludovico

What's driving growth in manufacturing production around the globe? Our PMI economists join us to discuss what our PMI surveys are telling us in real-time about confidence, output, and supply disruption. Using the Czech Republic as a starting point, they discuss trends, delivery times, the spread of the Delta Variant, and our expectations for inflation. Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Senior Economics, Economic Indices, IHS Markit, https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html Sian Jones, Senior Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/jones-sian.html