Rocking Our Priors

The Making of the Modern Muslim State: Professor Malika Zeghal by Dr Alice Evans

Professor Jared Rubin has authored two superb books, “Rulers, Religion and Riches” and “How the World Became Rich”. He joined my podcast, to discuss: - Why did the Middle East Fall Behind? - What caused the shift to Scriptural Literalism? - What explains the Rise and Decline of Sufism? - How important was Wahhabism and Saudi Petrodollars? - Why were Liberalising Reforms Short-Lived? - Why has Digital Technology been More Disruptive in MENA? - What's Constraining Middle East Economic Growth?

Professor Agustina Paglayan has a fascinating new book: “Raised to Obey”! She contends that mass primary education systems were primarily established to consolidate state authority and maintain social order. But what about industrialisation, democratisation or the Protestant Reformation? And why should education experts consider Political Economy? Book: https://www.amazon.com/Raised-Obey-Education-Princeton-Economic/dp/069126127X/

How exactly does low fertility affect economic growth, are UN population predictions accurate, what's driving the decline in fertility, and what can be done? To answer these questions, I'm joined by the brilliant macro-economist, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde Read his recent paper: The Wealth of Working Nations https://www.nber.org/papers/w31914

Professor Daron Acemoglu is famous for his careful empirical research, demonstrating the economic importance of institutions. But actually, he's done a 180 to embrace culture! In this podcast we discuss his new theory of culture, what drives liberty and prosperity, the limits of democracy, and the importance of geography!

Dr Oliver Kim has completed his PhD at Berkeley, recently appointed at Open Philanthropy. He does awesome research, carefully examining the drivers of structural transformation. We discussed: Why do you think East Asia is the only world region to have converged with the West? How have big data and computational tools changed our understanding of structural transformation? Oliver's website: https://oliverwkim.com/ His substack: https://www.global-developments.org/

“Vikings is no. 1 from all the Saudi men

Culture is not a static inheritance, but a dynamic arena of ongoing struggle. From the mosques of Jakarta to the classrooms of Louisiana, from TikTok feeds to university lecture halls, ideological warfare rages. This podcast explores the complex interplay of several crucial factors shaping our cultural landscape: Contestation: Culture is a battlefield where competing ideologies clash, merge, and evolve. Prestigious actors and institutions are especially influential, as others look to them as successful. No norm is set in stone; instead, we see a perpetual push and pull between progressive and conservative forces, each vying to define societal values. Economic growth, technological advances and political freedoms do not entail cultural liberalisation. These are merely vehicles - to be used by progressives and conservatives alike. Religious and cultural traditions: Deep-seated beliefs shape the receptiveness to change, and the scope of public debate. Drawing on my qualitative research across nine world regions and evidence from multiple disciplines, this podcast examines ideological battles in diverse settings, from the United States to the Middle East, Southeast Asia to Latin America.

Imagine: Elon Musk's tweet causes a cryptocurrency frenzy. Kim Kardashian's outfit becomes an overnight fashion sensation. Daron Acemoglu and colleagues' paper on settler mortality reshapes economic thinking. The Pope's words influence millions globally. What links these diverse events? They're all powerful manifestations of prestige bias. Psychologically, we seek guidance from those who've achieved success, looking to emulate their paths to prosperity and social approval. This creates a dynamic where the accomplished influence others, often reinforcing their own status in the process. From NBER's Summer Institute to the glitz of Hollywood, prestige bias permeates every sphere of human endeavour. However, its impact is perhaps most profound and far-reaching in the realm of religion. Join me on a journey to the heart of the Muslim world, where we'll explore the influence of Cairo's Al-Azhar - a beacon of Islamic scholarship whose teachings reverberate globally. Through this lens, we'll uncover how prestige bias shapes not just individual choices, but entire cultural paradigms.

Senior management remains heavily male, and honestly I'm not entirely sure why. Economist Ingrid Haegele finds that junior men are more likely to apply for promotions, primarily due to a greater desire for team leadership. Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.07750.pdf Haegele: https://www.ingridhaegele.com/

During the World War I, the US federal government was short on civil servants and actively recruited women. Abhay Aneja, Silvia Farina, and Guo Xu find that men with multiple female colleagues were subsequently more likely to marry working women and father careerist daughters! Crucially, the effect is larger when men have many female colleagues and it becomes perfectly conventional. Paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32639

How can we improve government capacity and public services? In “Mission-Driven Bureaucrats”, Dan Honig argues that civil servants are often deeply committed, yet hobbled by strict rule books. Trapped by top-down strictures, civil servants may even become disillusioned. Unable to help, they quit. Government ministries can be so much more effective if motivated civil servants actually have the autonomy to be creative, independent, and fix local problems. How do we know this? 4 million individual observations, along with in-depth case research in Detroit, Senegal, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Liberia. We discuss: What do most efforts to improve public management get wrong? How does management style affect recruitment and effectiveness? How can managers build cultures where workers feel empowered? Get the book: https://danhonig.info/missiondrivenbureaucrats

Imagine a world where love knows no boundaries, where two people can marry regardless of their gender. Now open your eyes. In some parts of the globe, this is reality. In others, it's a distant dream. Twenty years ago, a mere 26% of Americans supported same-sex marriage. Today, that figure has skyrocketed to 69%. That is extremely rapid cultural change in favour of love and liberalism. But hold your applause, because here's the plot twist: most of the world is not joining the parade. When asked about their least desired neighbours, most Africans and Asians still say “homosexuals”. The roots of this divergence go back two thousand years. Truth be told, it's all about love. In 1950, most of the world was homophobic, but with crucial cross-cultural variation. Some parts of the world celebrated marital love and secular liberalism. Shaking off the shackles of sexual puritanism, activists could persuade wider publics to welcome diversity, for ‘love is love'. Patrilineal societies have been far less receptive, as they prioritised intergenerational loyalty. Religious revival is another major impediment, exemplified by Brazilian Evangelicals, fanning the flames of homophobia. So, for those curious, here's a little preview of my second book, “The Great GAY Divergence”

Aaron Rock-Singer is a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative. He has published two fantastic books, “Practicing Islam: Egypt's Islamic Revival” and “In the Shade of the Sunna: Salafi Piety in the Twentieth-Century Middle East”. Aaron is truly brilliant, connecting both the macro and the micro. By examining structural shifts in education and urbanisation as well as Islamic print media, he shows how modernisation triggered counter-mobilisation. We discuss: How did colonialism change religiosity and religious practices in Egypt? Why were post-independence leaders relatively secular? What was the Islamic revival? What was new? Did the 1970s economic downturn raise support Islamists? Why was there a global religious revival in the 1970s? Why was female behaviour so central to religious revival? Would Egypt's Islamic revival have occurred in the absence of Saudi funding and migration?

The Ten Commandments must now be displayed in all Louisiana's public school classrooms. The law, signed by Republican Governor Jeff Landry, requires poster-sized copies with easily readable text. Why is this happening? Is it unprecedented? Actually, it echoes the 1970s global religious revival. Threatened by liberal modernity, conservatives worldwide leveraged new technologies and defensively mobilised to institutionalise piety. In this podcast, I draw on my comparative research to highlight parallel trends in Uzbekistan, Kyrygzstan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the U.S.

Professor Robert Hefner has a tremendous new book, “Islam and Citizenship in Indonesia: Democracy and the Quest for an Inclusive Public Ethics”. It's one of my favourite books of the year, drawing on thirty years of ethnographic research. Today, he joins “Rocking Our Priors”. We discuss: Indonesia's religious history Why have Hinduism and Buddhism have largely faded in Indonesia? Why were madrasas were rare until the 19th century? What explains the rise in normative Islam? - Economic development and technological advances? - Backlash against secular schooling? - Criminality and demand for moral order? - Saudi funding - The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

Michael Cook's "A History of the Muslim World" is my favourite book of 2024. Together, we discussed: - Did Islamic science weaken due to religious authoritarianism? - Why, in the Middle East and North Africa, were there so few peasant rebellions? - Theologically, how important was Ghazali? - What determined the rate at which people converted to Islam? - Why was there so much religious syncretism and diversity in the Ottoman Empire? - Why did the Muslim world fall behind economically? - Did the Ottoman Empire ban the printing press? - Why is South Asia the only place where Muslims ruled for hundreds of years yet remained a minority? - When you study the global history of Islam, what is the best indicator of how Muslim they really were? - Did colonialism trigger an Islamic backlash? - Why do Muslim countries often have weak state capacity? Timur Kuran blames waqfs. Do you agree? "A History of the Muslim World": https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691236575/a-history-of-the-muslim-world On my Substack, you can see my earlier reviews: https://www.ggd.world/p/a-history-of-the-muslim-world-by

Trust is down, worldwide. In India, Iran, Indonesia and Nigeria, less than 15% say that ‘most people can be trusted'. What's going on? I suggest several likely mechanisms: 1) Generalised distrust is correlated with strong family bonds 2) Poorer countries have rapidly urbanised at a lower level of income 3) Rule of law varies worldwide 4) Political contestation and growing polarisation 5) Online connectivity has boomed, and is increasingly negative My Substack has graphs, data and further resources: https://www.ggd.world/p/whats-driving-the-global-decline

What led to the demise of foot-binding? by Dr Alice Evans

Who are the world's most influential philosophers? by Dr Alice Evans

Saumitra Jha (Associate Professor of Political Economy at the Stanford Graduate School of Business) joins me to discuss what prevents Hindu-Muslim conflict. We discuss his paper on "Trade, Institutions, and Ethnic Tolerance: Evidence from South Asia" https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/trade-institutions-and-ethnic-tolerance-evidence-from-south-asia/534E0018C1431E7A7615B4FAD26DEB3E

Over the 20th century, the entire world became more gender equal. Or so I thought. But Pakistan has rocked my priors. Female employment has slightly risen. Meanwhile, young Pakistani women are more sexist than their grandmothers. What is going on? Charts and graphs are on my Substack: https://www.ggd.world/p/is-pakistan-becoming-more-patriarchal

The Patriarchal Political Order: Soledad Artiz Prillaman by Dr Alice Evans

Slave-Raiding, Solidarity and Status in Africa by Dr Alice Evans

Sub-Saharan Africa's Economic Stagnation by Dr Alice Evans

What Would Reduce Female Genital Cutting? by Dr Alice Evans

Why is India's female labour force participation so low? And how might that change? Suhani Jalota and Lisa Ho share insights from their brilliant work in Mumbai and West Bengal. This discussion is superbly insightly and great fun. Stay tuned for jokes & data. Paper on Mumbai: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/z3v4gxqpkvc4p9ntjy0ie/h?dl=0&e=1&preview=Jalota_Suhani_WhatWorksForHer.pdf&rlkey=ca71mbrtewdo92exnmop1q0b8 Paper on West Bengal: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vyzkrzwv2xlce1woj9hcm/lisaho_jmp_hjk_bwh.pdf?rlkey=aj66ghiptyslj5l7lawr9kzgs&e=1&dl=0

If everyone is equal, it's much more acceptable for women to get to the top. In societies where no one is special, men seem much more accepting of female leadership. Whereas in hierarchical cultures, where subordinates must bow to their bosses, female managers and politicians are more strongly disliked. They may even trigger backlash. This is a novel theory of gender inequality. I believe it helps explain why Russia and Nigeria's parliaments are almost entirely male, just like Korean and Japanese male-dominated management. If I'm right, then Scandinavia's feminist secret is not so much about gender, but rather an evolution of moral and political egalitarianism.

Patriarchy is reinforced by fraternal solidarity. The Athenian demos, German guilds, Tswana kgotla, Chinese imperial dynasties, Muslim Brotherhood and Indian caste panchayats all reinforced male dominance. As long as men are united, bound in collective loyalty, women are secondary. How might this change? On International Women's Day, I'd like to highlight a hugely important (but widely overlooked) driver of gender equality. In fact, this mechanism is so powerful that it is actively suppressed by many patriarchal societies. ROMANTIC LOVE

What's the Future of the US Labor Movement? Suresh Naidu by Dr Alice Evans

East Asian businesses often go out drinking. Why is this such an important part of corporate culture, relative to other world regions? A month ago, I didn't know. Now, after my interviews with people in China and Korea, the answer is very obvious.

In some societies, collective harmony is more highly valued than self-expression. If people are reluctant to speak out, prior culture is more likely to persist unchallenged. Caring deeply about social approval amplifies fears of ostracism and motivates quiet conformity. Moreover, where self-assertion is strongly disliked, feminist activism is more likely to trigger patriarchal backlash. This is a hugely important, but widely overlooked driver of ‘the Great Gender Divergence'.

What I am about to say may make you feel uncomfortable. Some may even find it offensive. In some circles, it's still a distasteful taboo. Westerners rarely speak about it publicly, certainly not directly, even though most people definitely want it. As a social scientist, I am not so squeamish. So I'll say it…

East Asian societies tend to idealise: - Meritocracy and reverence for education - Upward mobility and economic prosperity (trumping the afterlife) - Collective harmony.

Hostile Sexism in South Korea: Professor Jouen Kim by Dr Alice Evans

Across much of the world, men and women think alike. However, in countries that are economically developed and culturally liberal, young men and women are polarising. As chronicled by John Burn-Murdoch, young women are increasingly likely to identify as ‘progressives' and vote for leftists, while young men remain more conservative. What explains this global heterogeneity?

Exogamy and endogamy aren't just about who marries your daughter, but with whom you barter, truck and exchange. Marriage was fundamentally about economics. So how did exogamy and endogamy shape economics and culture?

In the West economic development spawned individualism and the spirit of ‘68. Modernisation theorists predicted that growth would deliver liberalism worldwide. Inglehart and Welzel argued that post-industrial societies would champion self-expression. But in fact, this has not transpired. Many prosperous places - like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and South Korea - remain quite conservative. India's economic growth has not delivered secularism, but Hindu nationalism. Why explains this global cultural divergence?

In 1900, East and South Asia were extremely patriarchal. Men were revered as high status, while female sacrifice was glorified. By socialising women to marry, obey their in-laws and stay put, Asian families consolidated trusted networks of social cooperation. Since chastity was crucial for family honour, women were also tightly restricted. But, over the 20th century, East Asian women increasingly undertook paid work in the public sphere, forged solidarity and gained status. Growth also catalysed a broader process of cultural liberalisation: autonomy, dating, and divorce. South Asian patriarchy is much more persistent. Intimate partner violence remains normalised. To explain this divergence, I suggest that every patrilocal family faces a trade-off between honour (achieved by social policing) and income (earned by exploiting female labour). East Asian female employment rose because rising wages compensated for honour. East Asian culture also differed: they lacked endogamy and were less concerned about female seclusion. This is the audio track of my new paper. For ease of listening, I have not added the references into the audio track. If you wish to read the full paper, it is here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VFEFazSbYM2jPVeqC2EUJDcRyHcuNqpD/view?usp=sharing

Why is Indian female labour force participation ultra low? To investigate, Suhani Jalota and Lisa Ho ran a Randomised Control Trial in Mumbai. They find that most women reject high-paying office jobs. This is not due to housework or childcare. Husbands said no. The paper: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/z3v4gxqpkvc4p9ntjy0ie/h?preview=WfH_JMP+(47).pdf&rlkey=ca71mbrtewdo92exnmop1q0b8&dl=0 My Substack: https://draliceevans.substack.com/p/why-did-poor-indian-women-reject?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Muslim societies are more likely to be authoritarian and marred in civil war. The big question is why? Faisal Ahmed presents a new theory: “Conquest and Rents”. He suggests that where Islam spread via military conquest, political authority was consolidated under a dictator. Political authority was then consolidated under a dictator, with elite slave soldiers, who were compensated with non-hereditary land grants. Absolutist rule was then legitimised by clerics. Authoritarianism persists if propped up by rents (oil or foreign aid). Where rents declined, these societies erupted in civil war (like Somalia). Where Islam spread through trade, these societies remained more cohesive. So when rents declined, they democratised. It's one of the most fascinating books I've read in 2023. I strongly recommend it and hope you enjoy our podcast.

Stopping Sexual Harassment by Dr Alice Evans

“The Two-Parent Privilege” by Dr Alice Evans

One feasible way to massively reduce violence is to tackle alcohol abuse. It is one of the single largest predictors of gender based violence worldwide, and it is not inevitable. Religious prohibitions, government bans and higher taxes can substantially reduce consumption. Many addicts wish they were not dependent on alcohol. I'm curious to learn whether voluntary drugs like ozempic could help those who wish to give up the bottle.

A conversation with MIT Professor Yasheng Huang Why is the CCP so resilient? How did the keju imperial examinations shape Chinese autocracy and culture? What does South Korea tell us about growth, democratisation and culture? Discussing his new book: https://yalebooks.co.uk/page/detail/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-east/?k=9780300266368

Why do a quarter of European young men say they'll vote for the far right? It's not just men. In France, The Netherlands and Belgium, the far right is equally popular with women. Existing scholarship has emphasised regional development traps, economic anxiety, and cultural backlash. Quantitative researchers typically regress individual- or place-based characteristics. In this podcast, I want to throw a spanner in the works, by highlighting the salience of distant events.

All East Asian tigers have converged economically with rich industrialised democracies, but only some have converged culturally, in terms of gender equality. Why is this?

Men comprise 90% of heads of state, 90% of Fortune 500 CEOs, and 90% of applications for patents. Prestigious positions are dominated by men. Why is this? Motherhood, discrimination, social networks and patriarchal institutions all play a role. But there may also be gender differences in personality. Men are typically more confident and competitive. Is equality then doomed? Should women be urged to lean in? And how much do gender differences in personalities really matter?

Poverty entrenches cousin marriage and patriarchal controls. What happens when crop yields improve and families become wealthier? Mobabark, Kuhn & Peters's paper is here: https://spinup-000d1a-wp-offload-media.s3.amazonaws.com/faculty/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2019/06/marriage-market2.pdf

Monsoon rains can cause enormous damage. Extreme floods are becoming more frequent, alongside global warming. Extreme flooding may increase early marriage and early childbirth, while lowering schooling. This comes from an important new paper in the Journal of Population Economics, by Madhulika Khanna and Nishtha Kochhar. Paper link: https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s00148-023-00955-z?sharing_token=ZikcGqicftAq-ywgduXnXfe4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY6wF4GChhXkhRp_0NqzxJpmqSt-4RTpTB1Ap11SZymZWN3bLZbUZHz-NkFkEQksvsU1gZxPGabUegWSbc5DKPaExzPX4gE80q-1LPzd4EBgVt899muxWk1PcCOpWEbgkeo=

Societies vary in their preference for female seclusion. But regardless of culture, female employment rises with job-creating growth. Singapore provides a perfect natural experiment, we can observe how 3 different ethnic groups responded to industrialisation.