Podcast appearances and mentions of jim paulsen

Jim Paulsen breaks down the widening gap between high-growth tech names and struggling traditional industries, warning it mirrors the dot-com era. He flags froth in small caps and unprofitable tech stocks, adding that dwindling corporate cash could drive a pullback. Paulsen also argues Fed tightening interest rates will hurt the “old era” economy while failing to address supply-driven inflation.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at the market stories that surprised us most, including the potential SpaceX IPO, extreme valuations, market structure, AI disruption, value investing, tech leadership and oil prices. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips from Cameron Dawson, Kai Wu, Jim Paulsen and Dave Nadig on what investors should understand about valuation, index flows, disruption and market leadership.Topics Covered:Why the SpaceX IPO could test how investors think about growth, valuation and market structureCameron Dawson on what 80 to 100 times sales implies for a company as large as SpaceXThe Palantir comparison and why great growth can still get priced in too earlyKai Wu on why traditional value investing struggles in industries exposed to technological disruptionHow value investing has performed differently in exposed versus insulated sectorsJim Paulsen on the shift from Magnificent Seven leadership to small cap tech and unprofitable tech stocksDave Nadig on why SpaceX's small free float and index inclusion mechanics could distort price discoveryWhy forced index buying, options trading and pre-positioning could make the first 30 days of SpaceX trading chaoticKai Wu on AI disruption, software stocks and why dispersion creates both opportunity and riskJim Paulsen on why the biggest stock market pressure from oil spikes may come after oil prices peakTimestamps:00:54 What surprised us most this week05:27 What 100x sales means for SpaceX investors10:52 Why value investing still works outside disrupted industries15:45 Why risky market leadership can continue longer than investors expect20:53 Why SpaceX's low free float matters for index funds25:23 AI disruption and the opportunity in software dispersion29:23 How dispersion creates winners and destroys funds33:46 Why oil peaks can pressure the economy with a lag

Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsJim Paulsen on Xhttps://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectiveshttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Topics CoveredWhy Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fallThe risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear marketHow inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the marketWhy the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin WarshThe extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocksWhy AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainableHow tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectorsWhy small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning signWhat past oil price peaks suggest about stock market correctionsWhy investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth riskHow this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AITimestamps00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI59:46 Jim's main takeaway for investors nowFollow the Excess Returns podcasts:https://excessreturnspod.com/Contact us:excessreturnspod@gmail.com/No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think.Topics CoveredWhy great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returnsThe role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing successJim Paulsen's argument that today's inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970sHow supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlookBridgeway's research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large capsWhy vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal softwareHow the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economyWhy the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 namesWhat management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker's processWhy patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edgesTimestamps00:00 Intro and episode preview05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns09:58 Why today's inflation may not be the 1970s17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks46:09 What investors can learn from management teams53:32 Why today's tech boom is not the 1990s58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack

This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Topics CoveredWhy markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical riskThe “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn't hit markets yetHow supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflationWhy pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting marketsThe role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rallyBull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioningWhy free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earningsHow options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatilityThe AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadthThe growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the marketTimestamps00:00 Intro and market overview01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn't move markets40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications

This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Paulsen, Brent Kochuba, Anthony Wang, and Tom Hancock to break down what's really driving markets right now—from recession signals and oil shocks to AI economics and options flows. We explore whether current conditions look more like the start of a new bull market or something more fragile beneath the surface.We dive into unique indicators like the “Walmart signal,” shifting oil/VIX correlations, the real economics behind the AI boom, and what options markets are telling us about positioning and risk.Topics Covered:The Walmart vs. luxury retail indicator and what it signals about recession riskWhy oil is no longer driving volatility the way it did earlier in the crisisHow geopolitical shocks are (and aren't) translating into equity market stressThe role of options flows and the JP Morgan collar in shaping market movesWhy all market signals should be viewed as probabilities, not certaintiesAI and the “cost of intelligence going to zero” and what that means for productivityThe layering of AI economics and how cash flows through the systemWhy this AI cycle differs from the dot-com bubble (utilization, funding, cost curves)The importance of cash-funded capex vs. debt-driven speculationWhy low consumer confidence may actually be bullish for stocksIndicators that look more like the start of a bull market than the endThe role of sentiment, positioning, and underreaction in driving returnsTimestamps:00:00 Intro01:00 Weekly Wrap overview and guest lineup03:05 The Walmart indicator and recession signals06:20 Private credit stress vs traditional credit signals09:05 Interpreting economic indicators in context10:25 Oil and VIX correlation breakdown13:05 Why oil stopped driving volatility15:00 “Certainty about uncertainty” and market behavior16:10 AI and the collapsing cost of intelligence18:40 Agents, productivity, and the future of software21:05 AI skepticism vs long-term adoption curve22:30 AI capex, cash flow, and economic layering25:00 Why this AI cycle is more stable than dot-com27:00 Cash-funded investment vs debt-driven bubbles29:25 Bull market vs bear market signals today31:00 Consumer confidence as a contrarian indicator33:30 The role of sentiment and upside surprises34:25 The JP Morgan collar and market structure37:00 Trading probabilities vs certainty39:00 How options flows act as market “magnets”41:05 Comparing AI infrastructure to fiber buildout44:30 Utilization and demand in AI vs dot-com47:00 Network effects and scaling AI adoption01:09:30 Final thoughts and wrap-up

This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today's environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsJim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail signal to private credit stress, productivity trends, and policy uncertainty, offering a data-driven perspective on where markets and the economy may be headed next.Paulsen Perspectives Substackhttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.comTopics CoveredWhy the recent oil spike hasn't impacted inflation and interest rates as expectedSlowing economic growth vs. recession risk and what the Fed might do nextThe Walmart vs luxury retail indicator and what it signals about the economyPrivate credit risks and how they differ from traditional credit crisesWhy many indicators point to a new bull market rather than a bearThe role of sentiment, volatility, and uncertainty in driving market returnsMarket rotation from mega-cap “new era” stocks to broader market leadershipCorporate profits divergence and the opportunity in the rest of the economyLiquidity, cash levels, and positioning as potential fuel for marketsProductivity trends and whether AI-driven gains are real or overstatedTimestamps00:00 Intro and current macro backdrop01:05 Oil spike and limited impact on yields and inflation04:45 Growth outlook and why recession may still be avoided07:10 Fed policy and the stagflation question10:15 Walmart vs luxury retail indicator explained13:40 Private credit stress vs traditional credit cycles17:00 Why this isn't 2008 and how balance sheets differ19:50 Private credit risks and market spillover effects22:15 Bear market fears vs signs of a new bull23:45 Consumer confidence and its impact on returns25:05 Oil spikes historically as buy signals26:15 VIX, volatility, and market bottoms27:05 Yield curve steepening and market implications28:05 Sentiment indicators and what they really reflect30:00 Market rotation and broadening beyond mega caps32:45 Passing the baton from tech to broader markets35:15 Corporate profits divergence and future potential37:00 Policy uncertainty and why it can be bullish42:05 Liquidity, cash levels, and risk allocation43:20 Options positioning and put-call signals44:05 Gold vs commodities and risk appetite45:10 Consumer credit contraction and market signals46:20 Polymarket recession probabilities as sentiment47:30 Economic sentiment collapse and contrarian signals48:10 Interest rate expectations and positioning49:05 Unemployment trends and historical market bottoms50:25 Productivity trends and AI impact on the economy

“I like a lot of pessimism,” says Jim Paulsen. He gives his perspective on what's next for the U.S.-Iran War and how markets can move back towards optimism. He thinks that we will “find more oil that can be released” if tensions de-escalate, but expects Brent crude to be “permanently elevated, somewhat.” He also thinks that the Fed would ease without the war as we need job creation. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The full first hour of the Sports Weekend with Steve Thomson. Guests include Steve Carney and Jim Paulsen.

Jim Paulsen writes for the Star Tribune Varsity section. He joins Steve today to talk about the state of high school coaching in Minnesota. Jim has a piece in the Strib about coaching through loss and sportsmanship at the boys state tourney. The kids have been heavily criticized and Jim argues that we need to take a step back and ponder a different perspective.

Sam Stovall of CFRA and Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives assess the market outlook and debate whether recent weakness creates opportunity or reinforces the case for caution. Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research walks through oil charts and what they signal for the next move in energy—and broader markets. Kei Okamura of Neuberger Berman outlines the outlook for Japan and where investors may find opportunity internationally. John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors examines the technical picture and explains why charts continue to support a cautious stance. Howard Silverblatt, formerly of S&P Dow Jones Indices breaks down changes in index dynamics and what developments involving SpaceX and OpenAI could mean for market structure. The episode also explores a new wave of ETFs designed to mimic strategies used by well known traders with Adam Patti, CEO of VistaShares. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify⁠⁠Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on AppleIn this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered• Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen's framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen's concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap techTimestamps00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI's deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered• Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen's framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen's concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap techTimestamps00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI's deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today's markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI's long-term economic impact.Topics covered in this episodeHow geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentimentWhy market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investorsThe relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial marketsWhy Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatilityWhy energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cyclesThe argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economyHow AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demandWhy technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating workThe concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growthPaulsen's analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growingWhy the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positiveHow the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader marketThe historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity marketsWhy policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocksWhether the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy without a traditional recessionWhy policy support may eventually broaden the bull market beyond technology stocksTimestamps0:00 Jim Paulsen on geopolitical volatility, oil prices, and market reactions2:50 How investors should think about the Iran conflict and market implications10:50 The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and safe-haven flows12:20 Why Paulsen likes international and emerging market stocks14:30 Why higher oil prices may not lead to sustained inflation18:40 AI disruption and the economic debate around jobs and productivity23:00 How innovation historically creates new demand and economic growth29:40 Technology is the tail wagging the economic dog33:30 Why the “new economy” is growing far faster than the rest of the economy37:00 Evidence that most of the economy may already resemble a recession41:00 Profit growth disparity between technology and the rest of the economy45:40 Why the stock market can mask weakness in the broader economy46:30 The historical leadership toggle between tech and the broader market49:00 Valuation differences between technology and other sectors50:30 How policy conditions influence market leadership55:00 Signs that leadership may already be shifting beyond tech57:00 Could the Fed ease without a traditional recession59:00 What a policy shift could mean for the next phase of the bull market

Markets react to fast moving developments in Washington and across asset classes: Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab assess the broader market backdrop and debate how investors should position amid policy uncertainty and macro crosscurrents. More tremors in private credit with Mark Pinto of Moody's Ratings. Jim Paulsen outlines what the Federal Reserve's next steps could be as geopolitical volatility and higher energy prices complicate the equation. Jackson Ader of KeyBanc analyzes bellwether Oracle ahead of its earnings next week. Our Sharon Epperson reports on rising 401(k) withdrawals and what increasing retirement stress may signal about the health of the consumer and the broader economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠⁠In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what the economy and markets may really be signaling beneath the headline numbers. Drawing from his recent outlook and long history studying market cycles, Jim explains why growth may be weaker than it appears, how policy lags are shaping the outlook, and why today's market looks very different from past late-cycle environments. The conversation explores the divide between the “new era” economy and the rest of the market, what that means for investors in 2026, and where opportunities may be emerging as monetary and fiscal policy begin to shift.Topics covered in this episode• Why headline GDP growth may be overstating the true strength of the economy• How trade distortions are affecting recent GDP data• The concept of a “no-shaped economy” and the divide between new era and old era businesses• Labor market signals that suggest economic sluggishness beneath the surface• Why this may be one of the most disliked bull markets in history• The role of policy lags and why easing could matter more than investors expect• How market concentration has shaped returns over the last several years• Warning signs emerging within the technology sector• The relationship between corporate cash levels, R&D spending, and tech leadership• Why market breadth and old era sectors may become more important going forward• Thoughts on bonds, stocks, commodities, gold, and portfolio positioning• Why international and emerging markets could benefit from a weaker dollar• How investors might think about diversification in an unusual market cycleTimestamps00:00 Introduction and key themes from Jim's outlook03:00 Why the economy may be weaker than GDP headlines suggest06:00 Labor market signals and recession-like dynamics12:00 Policy lags, the Fed, and why growth could soften further15:00 Market performance after multiple strong years18:00 The no-shaped economy and the split between new era and old era24:00 Strange market signals at all-time highs27:00 Valuations, sentiment, and why pessimism matters29:00 Fed easing expectations and consensus forecasts35:00 Warning signs for technology stocks42:00 Corporate cash, R&D spending, and tech leadership risks47:00 Portfolio construction and asset allocation thinking55:00 Final thoughts on opportunities and risks ahead

Investors weigh bonds, jobless claims, and rising economic concerns with Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives and Charles Bobrinskoy, Vice Chairman at Ariel Investments. Earnings from Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Rubrik, Ulta Beauty, and SentinelOne help shape the afternoon narrative. Mike Proulx of Forrester and Lloyd Walmsley of Mizuho analyze Meta's reported pullback in metaverse spending and its implications for the tech landscape. We also hear from Rubrik CEO Bipul Sinha on results, dig into retail earnings with Courtney Reagan, and assess the 2026 IPO outlook with Brianne Lynch, Head of Market Insights at EquityZen, before wrapping with a look at tomorrow's key market drivers. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, we're joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim's latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest rates, the dollar, and leadership in the year ahead.Topics covered in this episode:• The state of inflation and why CPI and PPI may be sending a very different message• The 20-year collapse in real sustainable GDP growth• Why job creation, labor force growth, and productivity have all structurally weakened• The rise in unemployment duration and what it signals about lost “animal spirits”• How demographics, immigration policy, and cultural shifts are shaping growth• Productivity puzzles: innovation vs. distraction in a tech-driven economy• Why the real economic risk may be deflation, not inflation• How monetary policy, the yield curve, the dollar, and fiscal policy have remained contractionary• Tariffs as a hidden tax and their real impact on inflation• How an easing cycle could reshape market leadership in 2026• Jim's Total Policy Stimulus Index and what it reveals about small caps, cyclicals, value, and foreign stocks• The difference between today's tech cycle and the dot-com bubble• What a broadening market might look like if policy finally turns supportive• How international equities could respond to a weaker dollar• Why tech may underperform without collapsing• Jim's expectations for S&P 500 returns in 2026 and the potential for a more balanced leadership environmentTimestamps:00:00 Market setup and inflation overview02:00 Reviewing recent corrections and sector broadening04:00 Bond yields, easing expectations, and fear-based asset leadership06:00 Tech's relative performance beginning to fade07:00 GDP growth collapse over two decades09:00 Structural slowdown in job creation10:30 Labor force growth and aging demographics12:00 The doubling of unemployment duration14:00 Population trends, immigration, and slowing productivity17:00 The rise of de-risking and falling monetary velocity19:00 Trade deficits, globalization, and policy contraction22:00 Why inflation risk may be overstated26:00 CPI/PPI data versus the inflation narrative29:00 Money supply, real rates, and the longest yield curve inversion31:00 The strong dollar as a contractionary force34:00 International stock performance and currency impact35:00 Tax burden relative to slower growth37:00 Tariffs as taxes and their real economic effect39:00 What would it take to restore growth and optimism?42:00 The Total Policy Stimulus Index explained47:00 Policy's impact on equal-weight, small caps, cyclicals, and value52:00 How foreign stocks respond to policy and the dollar54:00 Tech valuations today vs. the dot-com era55:00 Fed response differences between now and 200057:00 Why today's tech cycle is structurally different59:00 What 2026 might look like for the S&P 50001:01:00 Why price targets are inherently unreliable01:01:45 Closing thoughts and sign-off

7 high school football championship games are happening at US Bank Stadium this weekend. There are many story lines to follow with the top teams across Minnesota. Jim Paulsen is a high school sports reporter for the Minnesota Star Tribune and talks about what to watch for during the 2025 Prep Bowl.

7 high school football championship games are happening at US Bank Stadium this weekend. There are many story lines to follow with the top teams across Minnesota. Jim Paulsen is a high school sports reporter for the Minnesota Star Tribune and talks about what to watch for during the 2025 Prep Bowl.

Are markets starting to rotate out of tech? Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives weighs in as investors reassess the rally. On Capitol Hill, Emily Wilkins tracks the latest on the government shutdown. Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI breaks down gig economy earnings and investor takeaways. Dana Telsey dives into retail and consumer trends. Plus, Kathy Boyle of Andreessen Horowitz joins to discuss the cooling AI trade and OpenAI's leadership drama. Also featuring travel disruptions with Phil LeBeau and a look at next week's catalysts with Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

The Class 6A high school football bracket has been set. Star Tribune writer Jim Paulsen joins Steve Thomson to break down some of the matchups.

Star Tribune prep sports writer Jim Paulsen previews the Class 6A high school football bracket. Then, Steve revisits the new contract Curt Cignetti received to stay Indiana's football coach.

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves.Topics covered in the episode:The job market's pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisionsWhy recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systemsThe narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cyclesInvestor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability modelsHow easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growthWhat “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOsThe disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measuresGold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today's environmentThe impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectationsValuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiplesTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and market overview02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks09:00 Bull market without normal supports17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies23:55 Confidence and the misery index29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy34:00 Broadening of market participation37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields45:10 The role of gold in portfolios50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed's policy stance, inflation risks, and what's really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall.Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish dataHow fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growthWhy corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strengthThe Fed's inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shiftsJim's case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectationsHistorical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they've been missingDivergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the marketStructural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earningsThe opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policyWhat Jim will be watching heading into year-end00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed's inflation stance24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

Introduction: In a jam-packed show, host Michael Rand starts with Division III golfer Jimmy Abdo, who has advanced to the quarterfinals of the U.S. Amateur. Ranked No. 4,292 in the amateur golf rankings, Abdo is doing Gustavus proud. He plays in his quarterfinal match Friday. Plus J.J. McCarthy had his best day of camp and the Twins lost a frustrating one to the Tigers. 12:00: Strib Varsity reporter Jim Paulsen joins Rand to break down his latest project, ranking the top 25 Minnesota high school athletes of the last 25 years. 30:00: An opening loss for Gophers soccer and the NBA schedule is out.

Kristina Partsinevelos breaks down the day's market theme before Rick Santelli covers bond market moves following a lighter-than-expected CPI report. Daniel Hornung, former Deputy Director for the National Economic Council, shares his economic take, while earnings coverage includes CoreWeave and Cava.Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives and Sam Stovall of CFRA Research weigh in on market trends, and Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson reacts to CoreWeave's results. Tanaya Macheel discusses bullish IPO pricing expectations, and c3.ai CEO Tom Siebel addresses a major revenue miss.

Subscribe on Apple Podcsastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFcSubscribe on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/excessreturnsIn the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The JimPaulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that definetoday's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for whythe private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may notbe on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despiterecord index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, theunderappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, andthe risks posed by policy uncertainty.Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, orjust trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts,and contrarian insight.

Our Steve Liesman and Jefferies' David Zervos break down the political and market implications as Trump inches closer to firing Fed Chair Jerome Powel. Key earnings include United Airlines and Alcoa. Alcoa CEO Bill Oplinger joins exclusively to react to his company's quarterly numbers. Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives questions why markets aren't more rattled, and MoffettNathanson's Robert Fishman previews Netflix ahead of results. Plus, bond market moves with Rick Santelli, and Tim Seymour weighs in on global markets, Apple, and Diageo. 

Bond yields fall after softer ADP employment data, setting the stage for Friday's jobs report. Our Rick Santelli breaks down the move, with Mike Santoli offering his take on what it means for markets. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge weighs in on jobs, the Fed, and the rate outlook. Earnings from Five Below, PVH, and MongoDB take center stage. Marko Papic of BCA Research discusses the implications of an expected Trump-Xi call on U.S.-China trade. Jim Paulsen joins to discuss the wave of strategists lifting their S&P 500 targets. Brent Thill of Jefferies and Gil Luria of DA Davidson go head-to-head in a CoreWeave valuation debate. 

In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times. Main Topics Covered:Jim's perspective on market corrections and advice for investors during volatile periods, emphasizing emotional discipline and long-term thinking.The economic implications of tariffs, debunking the notion that they're inflationary and exploring their contractionary effects.Critique of Federal Reserve policy, including their unprecedented actions and failure to ease despite market signals of deflation risk.Analysis of the U.S. dollar's value and its impact on trade competitiveness, proposing a weaker dollar as an alternative to tariffs.The resilience of the private sector, bolstered by strong balance sheets and liquidity, as a buffer against recession fears.Thoughts on government debt, executive overreach, and Trump administration policies like deregulation and immigration.Investment strategies for the current environment.

In this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we've compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives. Main Topics Covered: - Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends - Mike Green introduces Goodhart's Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes. - Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics. - Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they'rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice. - Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company's future. - Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing. - Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives. - Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets. - Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach. - Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work. - Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance. - Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value. - Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers. - Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity. - Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade. - Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it's a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.

In this episode, Matt and Jack break down key insights from our interview with market strategist Jim Paulsen. Paulsen offers unique perspectives on how markets have evolved over his 40-year career, from the days when investors checked bank signs for daily Dow quotes to today's high-speed algorithmic trading environment.Key topics covered:Why traditional market valuation metrics may need updating for the modern eraA novel way to measure productivity through "profit per job" and its implications for market valuationsWhy Main Street confidence has remained low despite strong markets, and what this means for investorsHow the Federal Reserve's approach to communication and policy has transformedWhy traditional recession indicators failed in the recent cycleThe conversation features numerous "aha moments" where Paulsen reframes conventional market wisdom in enlightening new ways. His candid insights on what really drives markets and the limited role of policy makers challenge common assumptions about investing.The hosts also explore Paulsen's humble yet profound advice for investors: focus on not disrupting the core 90% of your portfolio while seeking opportunities for outperformance with the remaining 10%. This episode offers valuable perspective for both professional and retail investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment.

Jose Rasco of HSBC and Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives break down market dynamics. Jared Holz of Mizuho delves into the intersection of GLP-1 drugs and Medicare, while Mike Santoli provides actionable takeaways with his dashboards.David Joyce from Seaport Research Partners analyzes Netflix's latest moves, and Pramol Dhawan of PIMCO shares his expertise on emerging markets and India's growth story. Luis Von Ahn, CEO of Duolingo, on the uptick in users learning Mandarin as TikTok ban looms, and Stifel's Brian Gardner wraps up the hour with a look at Trump trade policies. 

Barron's Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn and Jim Paulsen, author of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter on Substack discuss the stock market's tough end to 2024 and what to expect in 2025.

We ask one question at the end of each of our episodes: Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be? In this episode, we discuss our favorite answers from our guests in 2024. Featuring insights from: Jim Paulsen on understanding your true impact as an investor Cliff Asness on the importance of looking at your portfolio less frequently Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth vs. chasing returns Jared Dillian on avoiding catastrophic losses Ian Cassel on the value of doing your own work Bob Elliott on the importance of humility Ed Yardeni on fading the consensus Eric Crittenden on mastering the basics before pursuing complexity Andrew Beer on the power of long-term thinking Kris Sidial on balancing optimism with preparedness Learn why the fundamentals of investing often matter more than complex strategies, how to avoid common behavioral pitfalls, and why getting the basics right can put you ahead of 90% of investors. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just starting your investment journey, these practical insights will help you build a more resilient investment strategy. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sunpointeinvestments.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW MATT Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/cultishcreative⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism. Key topics include: Why the Fed's recent approach differs from historical patterns The changing nature of market valuations The impact of technology on profit productivity Why consumer confidence remains surprisingly low The future of long-term bond yields Drawing from over 40 years of market experience, Paulsen offers a data-driven yet practical perspective on where markets may be heading and why many conventional indicators may need updating for today's economy. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The guys are back to discuss the insane Lakeville North victory over Lakeville South, which helped propel them to #1 in the latest rankings. We are joined by Jim Paulsen of the Minnesota Star Tribune to further dive in to the new rankings after Edina fell at Minnetonka. We wrap up with a volleyball discussion. Can Lakeville North run the table?

Introduction: Host Michael Rand starts with the Twins, who lost again and are 1-5 on this homestand. Manager Rocco Baldelli attributed their recent slide to one of many streaks they've had this season. The Twins and their fans better hope he's right because any help for a sagging roster has been slow to come, if at all. The Lynx are going in the other direction, though, surging into second place in the WNBA and looking every bit like a title contender. 9:00: Rand welcomes in the Star Tribune's Jim Paulsen for part of Thursday's football feast. Paulsen gives insights into his Dream Team of the top high school football players in the entire state of Minnesota and sets the stage for Thursday's first big slate of games. 22:00: Randy Johnson provides the second helping of football, getting listeners ready for Thursday's Gophers football opener against North Carolina.

Barron's Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn speak with Jim Paulsen, author of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter on Substack about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks.

Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled rate cuts are near after saying, “The time has come for policy to adjust.” Investors cheered the news, sending stocks broadly higher. Innovator Capital Management's Tim Urbanowicz and Paulsen Perspectives' Jim Paulsen break down how to position while 3Fourteen's Warren Pies discusses the impact on housing. Plus, BofA Head of North American Banks Research talks what the cuts will mean for banking stocks and Mercer US CIO Olaolu Aganga gives top ideas and the opportunities in alternative investments. 

The S&P 500 touched a record high intraday before retreating into the close. Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel on where he sees things going from here. Plus, Paulsen Perspectives author Jim Paulsen and Innovator ETFs' Tim Urbanowicz break down the market action and preview what's next. Samsara CEO Sanjit Biswas joins exclusively to talk the company's latest earnings and the negative stock reaction – despite beating on both lines and raising guidance. AeroVironment CEO Wahid Nawabi on his company's stock runup and the latest government contracts for drones. Plus, Citi Chief US Economist Andrew Hollenhorst on pushing back his Fed rate cut prediction. 

Steve Thomson (in for Henry Lake) talks with Jim Paulsen from the Mpls. Star Tribune about the upcoming 6A football slate, what makes Eden Prairie special, what he's seen in the rebirth of Anoka and more.

Steve Thomson (in for Henry Lake) and Chris Tubbs discuss the best and worst Halloween candy to give and receive, and Steve breaks down the upcoming slate of High School football with Jim Paulsen from the Mpls. StarTribune.

Star Tribune prep sportswriter Jim Paulsen makes his fourth appearance on the podcast and joins the show to talk everything prep football and volleyball in Minnesota! The guys start the show by breaking down three top-10 teams all falling in the Class 6A field in a handful of suprise upsets last week on the gridiron. They also discuss the recent committment of the State's top wide receiver, Kijohn Cummings-Coleman from Coon Rapids, and discuss his candiacy for "Mr. Football" alongside Chanhassen standout running back Maxwell Woods (NDSU) and Esko running back/safety Koi Perich, who is currently committed to the Gophers. Starting at (25:56), Jim brings his volleyball expertise to discuss head coach Scott Jackson's Wayzata Trojans as the dominant force in the high school game right now. They also discuss Champlin Park as the Trojans' top opposition, the changing of the guard at Eagan, and who might come out of a fierce Section 1AAAA between Lakeville North, Lakeville South, and New Prague. They also discuss the favorites for the All-Metro Volleyball team, among other topics.

Jim Paulsen, CIO at Leuthold, joins Bruce and Jeff to dissect the current market volatility. They discuss where the opening salvos of 2022 trading fit in compared to other recent big market moves and whether or not we'll see a true correction. They get into the Fed's role and how inflation worries tie into the swirling markets as well. Bruce and Jeff chat about UBS's purchase of Wealthfront.

Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group and Paulsen's Perspective joins the podcast to discuss his views on S&P valuations, the possibility of inflation and a market outlook. Our own Mark Schoeff Jr. fills Jeff and Bruce in on Barbara Roper's move to the SEC from her longtime work for the Consumer Federation of America.

Introduction: Host Michael Rand was intrigued and maybe a little alarmed recently when he was playing around with artificial intelligence and the 1998 NFC title game. Basic facts were completely wrong, but the emotion of the day was spot-on. Plus a former Vikings owner was sentenced to more than six years in prison. 11:00: Answering an important listener question about the future of the Twins on TV. 13:00: Star Tribune high school writer Jim Paulsen joins Rand to talk about the upcoming spring state tournaments and to explain some recent controversies the Minnesota State High School League has had to deal with. 27:00: Some drama with the Gophers women's hockey team.

This week, we are joined by Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at The Leuthold Group, to discuss the volatile markets and where we're headed from here.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices