Podcasts about Goodhart

These engagement failures, and how to fix them, map directly onto the Octalysis Core Drives. Get the free Core Drives in the Wild guide: professorgame.com/WildCD Episode Summary Rob breaks down why Amazon shut down KiroRank, the internal leaderboard that scored staff on raw AI usage on its Kiro developer platform. He shows how stacking Core Drive 2 (Development & Accomplishment) and Core Drive 5 (Social Influence & Relatedness) produced flawless compliance toward the wrong target, a textbook case of Goodhart's law: once a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure. Drawing on the Octalysis Strategy Dashboard and Toyota's Five Whys, he lays out the one question to ask before you measure anything. Listeners learn to measure outcomes instead of activity, and how to keep a proxy metric from quietly getting gamed. About the Host Rob Alvarez is Head of Engagement Strategy, Europe at The Octalysis Group (TOG), a leading gamification and behavioral design consultancy. A globally recognized gamification strategist and TEDx speaker, he founded and hosts Professor Game, the #1 gamification podcast, and has interviewed hundreds of global experts. He designs evidence-based engagement systems that drive motivation, loyalty, and results, and teaches LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY® and gamification at top institutions including IE Business School, EFMD, and EBS University across Europe, the Americas, and Asia. Key Takeaways Amazon shut down KiroRank, its internal leaderboard scoring staff on AI usage on the Kiro developer platform, after employees set autonomous AI agents on needless tasks just to climb the ranks and inflated the company's compute costs. Goodhart's law explains the failure: when a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure. You get what you measure, not what you want, so raw AI usage climbed while productivity went unmeasured. KiroRank stacked Core Drive 2 (Development & Accomplishment) through a progress bar and ranking, and Core Drive 5 (Social Influence & Relatedness) through public status, producing flawless compliance toward the wrong outcome. The more powerful and expensive the tool being measured, the more a gamed metric costs you, which is why Amazon paid in real compute money rather than a rounding error. The Octalysis Strategy Dashboard starts with business metrics by asking what outcome you actually want, using Toyota's Five Whys to move from "increase AI usage" to a result worth hitting, like productivity per employee. Engagement is the value created for users and the business, not click counts or usage volume, which is why most dashboards measure activity when they should measure the outcome. Topics Covered 0:00 - The $200 billion AI paradox 0:27 - Goodhart's law and gamed metrics 1:49 - The two Core Drives Amazon stacked 2:39 - Flawless compliance, the wrong target 3:38 - Amazon's KiroRank AI leaderboard 5:11 - Measure the right thing, not usage 5:38 - The Octalysis Strategy Dashboard 6:12 - Toyota's Five Whys for metrics 7:21 - When proxy metrics are unavoidable 7:58 - Measure the outcome, not the activity 8:33 - Get the Core Drives in the Wild guide Mentioned in This Episode Goodhart's law The Financial Times report on Amazon's KiroRank leaderboard Amazon's Kiro developer platform The Five Whys (Toyota / lean operations) A previous Professor Game episode on AI use and academic testing Free Resources and Get in Touch Core Drives in the Wild: Professor Game Free Guide Get Daily Value on Your Email Let's chat about your gamification project YouTube LinkedIn Instagram Facebook Start Your Community on Skool for Free Ask a question

Last 4 days before regular tickets sell out at AI Engineer World's Fair - this is the single biggest gathering of AI Engineers, Founders, Leaders, and Researchers in the world. Attendees get >$5000 worth of sponsor credits and talk tracks are looking FANTASTIC. Join us!The AI scaling debate always focuses on the question of “how do we get more GPUs?” but the better question may be: how do we make the most of ones we already have.The fact that a frontier lab like xAI could be running at sub-10% MFU (Model FLOPs Utilization) is just a hint at what the real problem may be.For context, older frontier-scale training runs were already much higher than 10%. GPT-3 was around 21% MFU. Gopher was around 32%. Megatron-Turing NLG was around 30%. PaLM reached around 46%. And our guest Anjney says best-in-class MFU today is closer to 60–70%.It's not necessarily that xAI is uniquely incompetent (it's clear they have talented folks) but rather the priorities may be flipped in the GPU arms race.While GPU access is a bottleneck, simply increasing CapEx won't automatically translate to better models as frontier AI is increasingly a systems problem: scheduling, utilization, networking, kernels, frameworks, data pipelines, parallelism, cluster reliability, and the thousand small decisions that determine whether your theoretical FLOPs become real training progress.From building Discord's developer platform and backing frontier AI companies like Anthropic, Mistral, Black Forest Labs, and Periodic Labs to now building AMP's independent compute grid, Anjney Midha has spent years close to the real bottlenecks of AI scaling. In this episode, Anjney joins swyx at Periodic Labs to unpack why the AI race is not just about buying more GPUs, why 95% utilization would have been considered an outage at Google, and why the next era of AI infrastructure has to be more aligned, more efficient, and more responsible.We go deep on AMP's vision for a compute grid that makes FLOPs flow like megawatts, the difference between full-stack AI labs and horizontal pooling, why AI data centers need community buy-in, and how compute markets could evolve into something closer to an independent system operator. Anjney also explains why DeepMind's unpublished research points to a market failure, why end-of-life prediction remains one of the most important AI applications he has thought about for fourteen years, and why “output maxing” may become a new discipline for frontier systems.We also discuss Anthropic's culture, why “luck favors the prepared mind” in coding models, how Claude cracked coding, why too much capital too early can make AI labs fragile, what Periodic Labs is trying to do with science and superconductors, why great researchers can become great CEOs, and why Silicon Valley is both deeply missionary and deeply mercenary.We discuss:* Why 95% utilization was considered an outage at Google* Why AI infrastructure waste compounds at frontier-lab scale* Why “move fast and break things” does not work for AI data centers* How data center backlash, power grids, and community incentives shape AI scaling* AMP's vision for making FLOPs flow like megawatts* Why compute needs an independent system operator* How interruptible demand and dynamic prioritization worked inside Google* Why DeepMind research hoarding creates negative externalities* AMP's 1.2GW base-load ambition and the need for 6GW of spike capacity* Why end-of-life prediction could become one of AI's most important healthcare applications* Frontier Systems, output maxing, and full-stack alignment* Why APIs and abstraction layers become lossy as organizations scale* Superconductors, standards, and the dream of lossless systems* SF Compute, open protocols, and the future of compute marketplaces* Why non-NVIDIA chips can still benefit from NVIDIA's reference architecture* Trust boundaries and why chip startups need visibility into future model architectures* Why VCs often underestimate researchers as CEOs* Scientists as star athletes of the mind* Why great CEOs need to be confrontational up and down the stack* Why leading the frontier matters more than “winning”* How Anthropic cracked coding* Why culture is fragile, not a permanent moat* Why hardship was a feature, not a bug, for Anthropic* Why Anthropic's P0 was coding from day one* Periodic Labs, physics as the constraint, and technical reality* Silicon Valley mercenaries, missionary teams, and what happens after a breakthroughAnjney Midha* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anjney* X: https://x.com/AnjneyMidhaAMP PBC* Website: https://amppublic.com/* X: https://x.com/amppublicTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction00:00:09 Why AI Compute Is Being Wasted00:03:17 Responsible Infrastructure and Data Center Backlash00:06:07 AMP Grid: Making FLOPs Flow Like Megawatts00:12:41 Foundry, Frontier Labs, and Research Hoarding00:14:42 Gigawatt-Scale Compute and End-of-Life Prediction00:24:08 Frontier Systems, Output Maxing, and Alignment00:27:38 Compute Markets, SF Compute, and Non-NVIDIA Chips00:32:57 Trust Boundaries, Co-Design, and Researcher CEOs00:38:17 AI Coachella and First-Principles Thinking00:42:43 Leading vs Winning in Frontier AI00:45:54 How Anthropic Cracked Coding00:48:25 Culture, Hardship, and Anthropic's P000:54:03 Periodic Labs, Physics, and Silicon Valley Mercenaries00:56:26 Rishi Valley, Singapore, and Money as a Measure00:58:47 Closing ThoughtsTranscriptIntroduction: Anjney Midha, AMP, and Compute WasteSwyx [00:00:00]: We're in Periodic Labs with Anjney Midha, CEO, founder of AMP. Welcome.Compute Utilization: Node Allocation, MFU, and AlignmentAnjney [00:00:09]: Thanks for having me. At Google, there are two types of utilization usually, right? That you're measuring in these clusters. One is node allocation, and then the other's MFU. Node utilization is usually like what percentage of cards in the data center are just, used, and that, if it's not at, 95%-Swyx [00:00:29]: There is no excuseAnjney [00:00:29]: There's no excuse, right? I think 95% at Google, which is where my co-founder, Seb, came from, he built the Borg, PBorg/GQM scheduler at Google, and there I think 95% was considered an outage, so 96% node utilization is, should be standard. And most single-tenant clusters are not running at that. So that's one. And then MFU should be, I would say the best in class today is somewhere between 60 and 70%. I think this is a leadership question, right? Fundamentally it's an alignment question, which is are the people who are funding the cluster and then deploying the cluster actually aligned? And sometimes theoretically they are, but in practice the number of people in the chain, the supply chain between, the capital and all the way to whoever's managing the cluster and then whoever's measuring what the output is, are just so many, degrees of separation away that, the, The Have you ever heard the radian metaphor, which is at the beginning of an arc, if you have two arcs that are two lines that are just off by a few degrees, that-Swyx [00:01:33]: It spreads outAnjney [00:01:34]: It spreads out, right? Or at scale. And I think what's happening is a lot of cluster implementations and infrastructure, a lot of frontier labs and other teams, that's what's happening, is they're, they initialize the plan, which is kind of like North Star with a team that wants to do good, but then they're, required to scale so fast instead of iteratively that the wastage just compounds really fast at scale. And so I think we know the answer, which is just do iterative bring ups. If you spend time with people who've been in the semiconductor industry or the DSN industry for a long time, this is not new, and I don't think AI should be an excuse. Sure. Something What is new? Okay. We have a lot of new capabilities, but that doesn't mean just abandon common sense. Common sense should always be in fashion. ? AI scaling doesn't change the in fact, if anything, AI scaling should be putting a premium on the value of common sense and infrastructure because the margin of error now is so much lower and the costs of wastage are so much higher. And the cost of wastage, by the way, is not just economic. I'm, obviously I'm, I'm an investor, or I'm an investor by background. Over the last few years now we're running an AI infrastructure business called, AMP. And I think that it's okay to say this time is different on the capabilities front. We are genuinely getting capabilities at, of the, of a kind we haven't had before. That doesn't give you an excuse to say this time is different for everything, especially infrastructure. So look, I love the hacker mindset and the hustler mindset. Now, that's great for the startup mindset, but you remember this moment where Zuck went from saying, “Move fast, break things” to, move-Responsible Infrastructure and Data Center BacklashSwyx [00:03:10]: Fast and stable infrastructureAnjney [00:03:11]: Move fast with stable infrastructure. I think now we need to move fast with, responsible infrastructure. People are going to ask where the impact is. There was a really In our class yesterday, Scott Nolan, who's the founder of General Matter, came by at Stanford to speak about energy bottlenecks. And he had a phenomenal idea. He said, “if you look at the marginal unit economics of compute per hour,” he goes, “let's call it, $4 an hour. If you're having to bring up a new data center in a new community, why not just say we're going to charge 4.50 an hour, and that marginal impact or that marginal increase, we just literally take that and give it to the local community as cash?” I can tell you as a customer of that compute, I would love that. I'd be happy to pay an additional 50 cents per hour at scale.Swyx [00:03:57]: Wow. Yeah.Anjney [00:03:58]: Because if that means the public benefit is so clear to the communities that the data centers are coming up in, I'm going to feel like that compute is much more reliable. Up to 20% of all data centers this year in the US, my understanding is are at risk.Swyx [00:04:13]: Of community backlash?Anjney [00:04:14]: Correct. Of not getting the community support they need to get brought up.Swyx [00:04:19]: Wow. That's a huge number.Anjney [00:04:20]: Yeah. Now, we, I think we should dig into what that number is. I think it's a little bit of overstated. These things can get over-reported, but it-Swyx [00:04:27]: They don't just care about jobs. They care about all the other stuff around it, right? They care about power grid, they care about environments-Anjney [00:04:33]: Power grid, permitting, and so on. And imagine I think if you said there's a new AI deal. If we're bringing up a data center in your community, we're actually going to reduce the cost of your electricity bill. Okay, now we're talking. Right? The community's going, “Okay. Now this is a deal. I feel like a partner in this.” Right now that's not happening. There will be audits, there will be investigations, and when the, when the regulators come, I don't know when it's going to be, the folks who are moving fast and breaking things in the name of AI progress better be prepared. That's certainly not how we're procuring compute. Or we're, we're trying as much as we can to work with partners who have long-term track records. Many of whom, by the way, are not, AI providers. I think this whole idea of neoclouds being somehow this new category is a lot of marketing speak. There are really good, reliable, trusted data center providers in America who've been around 20 plus years. I love those folks. They know how to Sure. Are they sponsoring happy hours at NeurIPS? No. Are they legibly listed in Build? No. Are they hanging out in my, in, situational awareness parties? No. But they're adults. I trust them.Swyx [00:05:44]: They can run LAN. They can run power.Anjney [00:05:45]: They can run LAN, power, and shell. They have credit histories. We sit down, we have a conversations. Many of them live in Silicon Valley. They've, they've had to deal with the boom and bust cycles of the internet, and I love those folks. They are stable infrastructure partners and thinkers. And I think there's a lot of short-term thinking going on in the compute layer, and it's going to catch up to us. It's not going to be good.AMP Grid: Making FLOPs Flow Like MegawattsSwyx [00:06:07]: You talk about aligning incentives, and, I would think that aligning incentives means you have the full stack in one company, which is xAI and OpenAI, right? So you as a standalone infrastructure layer, why are you somehow more aligned to your portfolio companies than people who just own the whole thing?Anjney [00:06:28]: In systems design, right, there's, there's two regimes of, architecture, right? You have integration, and then you have pooling and utilization, right? So the Or rather, the way to increase utilization often is you can do systems integration where you collapse a lot of process into one node, or you can pull out a process from a node and share that amongst various That resource amongst several different nodes. And so we see the AMP grid, which is, the, what, the system we're building here, which is basically a compute grid. We're trying to do for compute what the electric grid-Swyx [00:07:02]: PowerAnjney [00:07:02]: Yeah, what the power grid did for electricity. It-- this is a pooling and utilization layer across clouds, And so we're actually the opposite of a full stack integration like approach.Swyx [00:07:12]: Super horizontal.Anjney [00:07:13]: Where it's much more horizontal and it's, it's multi-cloud, it's multi-silicon. The goal is to try to make FLOPs flow like megawatts, and that is very hard to do today for many reasons. There's stranded pools of compute all over the place and there's no fungibility. And so right now we do it at the level of scheduling, and we often do it at the economic layer. But as we start to announce what we're working on, it's extraordinary like how many folks are coming out of the woodworks and saying, “Hey, I'm actually working on a way to make compute fungible at this part of the stack and that part of the stack.” And as a grid, we'd like all of these folks to participate on the grid. There's, people often ask me, “Andra, are you a new cloud?” And I go, “No, actually neoclouds are suppliers.” sometimes they'll ask, “Are you a venture capital firm?” I go, “No, actually they are, they are demand like sort of off-takers of the grid.” We see ourselves as what's called an independent system operator. So if you study the history of the electric grid, once it became legible to a lot of factories and industrial sort of participants that, hey, actually it turns out pooling is a good idea. We should pool our generators instead of all having a generator running at half capacity in our backyard. There was a need for an independent entity who could coordinate all these parties. Transmission line, power generation, facilities, transmission lines, factories, and that neutral coordination mechanism is very critical. In order-- If you study like the history of grids, the most enduring ones were those that never owned their own assets. They were ones that had, or often started with long-term anchors who are uncorrelated sources of demand, a steel factory, a shoe mill or whatever in a particular town who weren't competitive, where the steel factory want to spike up at night, the shoe mill wanted to spike up during the day. So then you pool and you share, right? So each of you is guaranteed some base load, but then you kind of schedule your spikes to drive a peak utilization across the town. The gold standard, so to speak, historically, has been these utility companies like PJM Interconnect in the northeast of America, where they, over many years became this what's called an ISO, an independent system operator of the grid. So that's how we see ourselves. Economically, that's what we are. From a technical perspective, we started at the scheduling layer because Seb and Mihai, who, run engineering here, built that at-Swyx [00:09:28]: Did your schedulingAnjney [00:09:28]: They did that at Google. And, -Swyx [00:09:32]: And you have infra shops from Discord as well.Anjney [00:09:35]: I have some.Swyx [00:09:35]: I don't know, I don't know if Discord is like the primary identity, but what-whatever, I'm just kind of-Anjney [00:09:39]: No, D-Discord was-Swyx [00:09:40]: Choosing a well-known name.Anjney [00:09:42]: Well, I So I was running the developer platform there. The internal infrastructure I was not responsible for. That was actually a guy by the name of Mark Smith, who was extraordinary. And yes, Discord did pool So Discord is actually a counter example. I had the chance to learn a lot about fully, full stack infra there because-Swyx [00:09:56]: It's the same thing, yeahAnjney [00:09:57]: It's the, it's the other architecture which is, Discord built its own WebRTC vo-voice and video infra. So like Discord did not use-Swyx [00:10:08]: For the calls, yeah.Anjney [00:10:09]: Yeah, did not For communication, Discord did not use third party infra. It was all built in-house. And then the way you maximize utilization was you pool demand from the world's 200 million plus monthly active gamers, right? And so that's, that's how those stacks were constructed. Again, in systems design, the two concepts that keep coming up over and over again are abstraction and composition, right? And-Swyx [00:10:31]: Bundling and unbundlingAnjney [00:10:33]: Bundling and unbundling, abstraction, composition, like verticalization and-Swyx [00:10:36]: HorizontalAnjney [00:10:36]: Horizontalization. So in that sense, AMP is an independent system operator of the grid. We pool demand, we pool supply from a number of partners we trust At about 1.3 gigawatt scale over four years. And then we pool demand from some of the world's best, research labs and so on. We're sitting at one, periodic labs who need extraordinary long-term demand. And the idea is that, each of them is guaranteed base load on the grid, but they can spike up and down flexibly on, for compute, with much shorter timelines as needed. That was roughly the design of the program I came up with at a16z called Oxygen. The same-- That was the same design of the GQM, BorgX, Borg GQM implementation at Google that Mihai and Seb had built. Which was that how do you allow, teams inside of Google, on the internal infrastructure to be guaranteed capacity, for their base workloads? But when they need to spike up on research, how could they ensure that was sufficiently there? And of course, the big innovation that was not discovered, but kind of implemented in the space, this infra space maybe three, four years ago at Google was the idea of interruptible demand, right? Where you just queue up a bunch of jobs and through this like sort of credit system, there can be a bidding mechanism.Swyx [00:11:53]: Like priorities.Anjney [00:11:54]: It's a dynamic prioritization Basically. And jobs can get interrupted based on somebody else who's saying, “what? I have 10 tokens, 10 credits I want to spend on this job.” Another like team lead, research lead is “Genie 3 or whatever is only worth five, credits, and NanoBanana2 is worth 10 credits,” and so the NanoBanana job gets priority. That's a, that's a made up example.Swyx [00:12:15]: It's very real. Brain Marketplace was real. And, we've, we've covered this on the pod with David Luan, who was-Anjney [00:12:20]: Oh, great. OkaySwyx [00:12:20]: Was there. And the criticism is that, well, actually sometimes you need central command to go all in on a thing. And actually sometimes capitalism via credits doesn't work. Not, this is not a criticism of AMP. I'm just saying, this is a thing that has been tried, internally within Google, and it led to Google missing GPT.Foundry, Frontier Labs, and Research HoardingAnjney [00:12:41]: Like, we structured ourself essentially very similarly to Google. We are structured as a holdings company. So, Alphabet holdings is Alphabet holdings, and then they've got these subsidiaries called Google and-Swyx [00:12:51]: Other betsAnjney [00:12:52]: Other bets and so on. We've got, AMP holdings, and we've got our infrastructure business, and then we've got a capital business called Foundry that incubates new frontier AI labs or invests in them as venture capital, like Periodic. We put a few hundred million dollars into Anthropic from our fund earlier this year. So wherever we feel like teams are making progress, especially researchers and so on who've pushed the frontier inside of existing labs like DeepMind, I find, there comes a point where they feel misaligned with the dictatorship of Alphabet holdings. And at that point, sometimes the dictatorship doesn't want them anymore. And they're “Thank you. You've done your job here. You've kind of helped us through the zero to one phase, and for whatever reason, we're going to deprioritize your amazing, omni model or whatever it is, and instead we're going to prioritize coding.” And, I think that's a tragedy, but I get it. They're Sergey and team are running their own business there. But that doesn't mean we the rest of us should sit around waiting for that progress to get unlocked for the rest of the world and humanity. If you think about how much extraordinary research has happened inside of DeepMind over the last 10 years, I, Demis and Sergey and those guys did such a great job. But at the end of the day, so much of that has never seen the light of day?Swyx [00:14:00]: Or they're like papers only, but they never actually shipped it to production or-Anjney [00:14:03]: What's worse is the paper is actually not even being published anymore ‘cause there's a six-month embargo inside of DeepMind, right? We've heard about this where a paper comes out, and then I think there's a six-month embargo window where if anybody on the business team says, “This could be interesting” It's embargoed for life.Swyx [00:14:18]: Exactly. So the stuff that gets published is the stuff that's not good enough.Anjney [00:14:21]: There's an adverse selection problem, basically. Yeah. At this point-Swyx [00:14:25]: It's, it's a common complaint at NeurIPS, by the way, that's “Well, why would I look at the papers that are the trash of GDM?”Anjney [00:14:31]: Again, I think it's a tragedy. I get it. They're running their business, but the rest of the I think there's negative externalities of research being hoarded, and so that'there's a market failure. And somebody needs to unlock that research, and we can't do it on our own. We only have 1.2 gigawatts of compute. That's nothing. That's about $40 billion of cloud spend. We're going to need a lot-Gigawatt-Scale Compute and End-of-Life PredictionSwyx [00:14:51]: By the way, is that's a new number. I haven't, haven't come across that gigawatt number. That's huge.Anjney [00:14:56]: Yeah. And to be clear, we haven't secured all of it. That's how much demand we have started to secure. I think publicly we haven't actually confirmed how much we have for this year. In order-Swyx [00:15:04]: Where do you want to get to?Anjney [00:15:06]: I think the steady state would be that we have a base load pool Of 1.2 gigawatts at all times Of base load capacity. For spike capacity, right now my estimate is we need roughly six gigawatts over the next four years for all our teams to feel like they were able to keep moving the frontier, whatever they're working on, whether it's, like superconductor discovery over here. There's a new investment we're working on right now, which is in the end of life prediction space in healthcare. It's extraordinary how much you can, you can give this was actually my graduate school work. I went to grad school for bioinformatics at Stanford Med. And I know we-Swyx [00:15:40]: Econ, MCS, bio.Anjney [00:15:41]: So my-- I was this really weird cat where, I was never satisfied with my major options. So at one point I was an econ major, then I was a CS major, then I was a MCS major called mathematical computational science, and they decided they were going to end that major. So I took all that coursework, and I applied it to grad school, my graduate degree in bioinformatics, which was the master's program, and then I thought I was going to do a PhD. I never ended up doing it. I dropped out and went to work at Kleiner. But I was lucky enough to apprentice with this professor at, Stanford Med. His name is Nigam Shah, and he was working on end of life prediction. Stanford is one of the only research facilities in America that has a longitudinal patient data set that's larger at scale. I think it's at least 12 million patient lives. The only larger data set is at the VA, the Veterans Affairs, of America. And to do research, like do any deep learning and so on that data set, it was called the STRIDE data set at that time, you had to be a Stanford Med School affiliate, which is why I went and enrolled in the bioinformatics department. End of deep learning was early. Nigam Shah had the visibility-- the vision to see that, you could do end of life prediction to help palliative care. In America, the, over 30% of all Medicare, Medicaid spend, at least at that time, was spent on end of life care. And what's we grew up in Asia, so we all-- Yeah, at least I won't speak for you, but I have A very different relationship with death than I find folks who grew up in America do. In America, spiritually and culturally, especially in Western societies where Christianity, the Christian tradition sort of frames death as this terminal point, there's often a judgment day and so on. The way we view death is with a finality. In Indian culture, in Hindu culture, death is one-Swyx [00:17:35]: Also, he's Buddhist as well.Anjney [00:17:36]: You're Buddhist, yeah. So it's one, it's one step in a journey of many lives, right? And so, I grew up in this city called Chennai in the south of India, and when people die, you dance on the street. There's like a procession where your body is carried to be cremated and your family, like celebrates and there's drums and so on. It's this huge thing. And, It's because the idea is that you're going to be reincarnated. You've been liberated from the responsibilities of this life, and now you're onto your next. It's a new It's like going off to a new college or whatever, right? And so it was so alien to me when I got here as an undergrad- That the medical system works backwards from that assumption that we have to view death as this terminal thing and delay it, postpone it's a bad thing. And so at the time, clinical decision support in the United States was this very primitive field. Even to this day, physicians in the United States often will tell you when you have a terminal disease, this is your, we've diagnosed you, which is great. Our ability to diagnose you is extraordinary. You have somewhere between six months to six years to live. What do you do with that information? The error bars are so high that then you In times of uncertainty, we default to culture, and when the culture is let's-- this is a bad thing, I've got to prolong my life, then you start doing things like And just to, just sort of from a systems perspective, what's going on there is Physicians often feel like they need to provide such high error bars because there's always some uncertainty in end of life diagnosis, and if you provide the wrong Diagnosis or recommendation to your patient, you can be sued for medical malpractice. And then your license can be taken away. It can be catastrophic for your career. In contrast, if in countries where that's not the case, what you often observe is that patients, physicians are quite prescriptive with their recommendation. They say, “Hey, this is your condition. The literature says that you probably have this much time on Earth left. My expert opinion is that you are an outlier or whatever.” And they try to be more prescriptive, and that empowers a patient, right? ‘Cause then a patient can say, “I trust my doctor. They said on average, I have six months to live, but if I do these things, I may have a shot because of my particular predispositions or my genetic history or whatever.” And that empowers you to go about your life in a actually more scientific way than leaning on religion, culture, spirituality, and so on. In contrast, here, because of that medical malpractice sort of thing looming over your head, a physician never gives you a clear recommendation. So instead you say, “Okay, Doc, well, let's try it all.” And then you start a whole regime of drugs and therapies, and then you often spend weeks and weeks in the hospital, and that deteriorates your quality of life. And when that deteriorates your quality of life, you instead of spending your last few days doing the things you love with your family, you're spending it on a hospital bed. And that ends up being thirty percent of Medicare and Medicaid. So it's worse for the patients. The doctors feel terrible. The American taxpayer is paying a huge amount of money. And so this is why Nigam Shah, who was this professor at Stanford, said, “Anjney, if there's “ I kind of sat down with him. I was this young, I'd, I was twenty-one, and I was “I want to work on a big problem.” He's “The big problem is end of life care.” And so we tried to do deep learning to say, to-- So we started trying to run deep learning on these tried patient data sets to say, “Could you have an AI system make a recommendation that is orders of magnitude more precise about how much time you have left once you've been diagnosed with a terminal condition than a human?” And then if we can get that precision to be high enough, then you can empower the patient. And it turns out the tech works. Like it's-- Once you get the data set, like RL works. Honestly, even regression models work. You don't need to get that fancy. At the time, we were just trying, doing like very simple neural nets.Swyx [00:21:54]: Simple solutions, yeah.Anjney [00:21:54]: Today, what we can do with RL is extraordinary. The problem remains then and now is regulatory, because you actually can't shift the burden of the wrong clinical diagnoses from the physician to the AI system. And so at that time, I got quite disillusioned ten years ago for, twelve years ago where, ‘cause I felt I just didn't have the resources to influence regulation. Today, I'm very lucky. I'm in a different place. I've, I'm a lot older, and so I've been spending a lot of time on my next incubation, which is how can we unlock the, patient empowerment by training AI models to do end of life prediction much, with much more precision and ac-Swyx [00:22:37]: Oh, wow. You're still focused on this the whole time.Anjney [00:22:40]: The-- I haven't been able to get, this out of my mind a single day for the last fourteen years. This is the hill I want, I would like to die on. There's two, I would say. What? I actually, I'd prefer not to die.Swyx [00:22:51]: Yeah, exactly.Anjney [00:22:52]: But I think two bipartisan issues, I think two issues that should be bipartisan in America are how do we empower patients to make the right clinical decisions at the end of their life, such that we're reducing the taxpayer burden with science? It's just good old science, and AI can help here. And the second is, net positive data centers, ‘cause I think that's the biggest critical bottleneck on training and good enough AI models to help people at the end of their life. So there's sort of two sides of the, of the same scaling bottleneck curve, but those two, we formed AMP as a public benefit corporation. My wife and I, who you've met, you've met Viv. Her passion is education. Her family is a long line of educators and so on, and, of physicists. And so this class is my attempt to stop being the black sheep of the family and be a, an educator. But if I'm not educating, the thing I would be doing is working, on these two problems, whether on the political spectrum or as a researcher back at, in some lab. And my hope is if anyone's listening to this podcast, if they're passionate about either of those two topics, I'd love to hear from them. We'll, we'll we can share the contact in the show notes, but, we're looking for people to join both of those missions on the, on the political side as well as on the medical side, on the research side.Frontier Systems, Output Maxing, and AlignmentSwyx [00:24:08]: You said, this is a discipline that you want to form. You call it's called variously called Frontier System. It's variously called One Person Frontier Lab. What is the ideal name or shape of this? Like the, what is the mission?Anjney [00:24:24]: Of the class?Swyx [00:24:26]: Of the discipline that you're, exploring, right? I The class is called Frontier Systems. But like for me, maybe one phrase is you're, you're just anti-waste, right? Which is wasting GPUs, wasting in human and Medicare. But is there, is there a broader theme that I'm, that maybe you can encapsulate more succinctly?Anjney [00:24:45]: Yeah. The, from an engineering perspective, it's very simple. It's output maxing. It's the, it's the department of output maxing.Swyx [00:24:51]: Making the most of what we have.Anjney [00:24:52]: Exactly. I'm a huge believer in optimal outcomes. I think both in America and other countries, we are losing our appreciation for nuance, and this is the thing of And AI is the same case, right? Oh, the bitter lesson holds. Okay, fine. But that doesn't mean you just like throw 500 GB300, 500,000 GB300s at your suboptimal model scaling and you waste a bunch of compute. It also doesn't mean that, the most optimal is to have like 50 different architectures where there isn't enough standardization. One of the reasons Anthropic has had extraordinary sort of velocity is ‘cause they picked the transform architecture and said, “This is simple. Let's double down on it,” right? And now luckily there's enough investment going to the space that we can afford other architectures, but at the time, investment was just too fragmented into other architectures, so that arguably unlocked scaling. So I think there's a philosophy. I think we all owe it to ourselves to do output maxing with a new capability called AI on a global level. I think if I was starting a new department at Stanford, depending on how fuzzy or technical I wanted to be, I'd probably call it the Department of Alignment. Like-Swyx [00:25:59]: It's an overloaded termAnjney [00:26:01]: But it is, But alignment really Is a hard problem. And I think when you unlock it, full stack alignment is super hard in any organization and in any system. Like in a, in a venture capital firm, if you can have full stack alignment between your limited partners and your, the founders who are creating the value and ultimately the public that owns the IPO stock, that is a gift that keeps giving. And when you study the history of these systems, when they start off, they usually start out small scale where the feedback loop is actually so tight that there's alignment. And then the more you try to scale, the more division of labor happens, the more specialization happens, and at each step you add abstractions. And wherever there's an API interface, there's like loss. There's communication loss. And so I think a really cool thing would be for us to figure out is there a way for us to have our cake and eat it too as an engineering discipline? Is there a way to actually scale up and scale out Without losing any alignment, without lossy transmission?Swyx [00:27:01]: You mean standards?Anjney [00:27:02]: So standards is one way. The other way is you just have net new capabilities. So like what we're trying to do here is discover new superconductors. A room temperature superconductor would be a lossless transmission mechanism for energy. We would have flying cars. We are right within a few years of having a new room temperature superconductor. So I think those are the two. You either have to standardize On protocols or API specs that allow lossless communication, or you can come up with a whole new capability that unlocks so much abundance, the standardization doesn't matter ‘cause you just unlock net new capacity. This, the, so this is what I spend my days thinking about these days.Compute Markets, SF Compute, and Non-NVIDIA ChipsSwyx [00:27:38]: No, I think every infra person at, who wants scale and wants to output max does eventually end up thinking about this. We don't have time to go into it, but we have done an episode with SF Compute-Anjney [00:27:50]: Oh, coolSwyx [00:27:50]: That is trying to standardize The futures contract for compute. I don't, I don't know how that's going by the way, but like at some point this will be public.Anjney [00:27:57]: Oh, I think Evan is awesome and SF Compute is the kind of effort that I hope we can accelerate because what often happens is these exchanges are very hard to get, they, it's hard to bootstrap them, right? Because they often require-- There's many inefficiencies between parties. There's trust boundary inefficiencies in infrastructure because you don't trust, one part of the stack doesn't trust another part of the stack to give them visibility. There's capital markets inefficiencies, there's operational efficiencies. So if you can inject like a single shock to the system of a ton of compute demand or supply, then you can accelerate, these new flywheels. And so my hope is one day, or soon, if SF Compute needs extra like has excess capacity, they just hook it up to the grid and they get flooded with demand from us. And on the other side, if they have a ton of demand but they don't have supply, they just again hook up to the grid and it's a two-way protocol where they can just hook up to our capacity. And I don't think we're too far from that. Today our working implementation of it is mostly through a group of labs, universities, and a few sort of trusted parties who are, who all feel like they're in alignment to borrow an over sort of used word. But our hope is to just have it be an open protocol that anyone can hook up to on-Swyx [00:29:20]: Hook up for demand or hook up for supply? In primarily demand, it sounds like. Like you-Anjney [00:29:25]: No, bothSwyx [00:29:26]: You would want to offer demand.Anjney [00:29:27]: Both. Yeah. Unfortunately, what's happened in the last six weeks is, we thought we'd have a bunch of excess capacity by the end of this year. It's all gone.Swyx [00:29:37]: It's exploding.Anjney [00:29:38]: It, yeah. It's all gone. And so I have, my text messages are full of friends, we know many of these people, these are founders who've raised billions of dollars in San Francisco going, “Oh, any chance you have like 50 nodes in the next few weeks?”Swyx [00:29:51]: What is the scope for, non-Nvidia, right? You have Lisa Su coming and, Rainer Pope as well. And so There is a lot of demand for, more performance Alternative architectures and all that. At the same time, this hurts your standardization.Anjney [00:30:11]: I don't think so. So actually Rainer's a great example, right? Rainer is a CEO and founder of, MatX. I actually had him by for office hours in the class earlier today, and there was an insight he brought up that I hadn't considered before, which is when they decided to pick the standard For their data center, they picked the NVIDIA reference architecture. So the MatX chips Just plug in to any site that has an NVIDIA bring up planned. And, the-Swyx [00:30:42]: It's just software then. It's, it's not the-Anjney [00:30:44]: A-Swyx [00:30:44]: Hardware.Anjney [00:30:46]: Well, from an input and IO perspective It's the same footprint as an NVIDIA rack.Swyx [00:30:52]: That makes sense.Anjney [00:30:53]: Where they have done, innovated a bunch from what I can tell is on systems co-design. Which is where a lot of the gains are to be had. And so he picked He was “Anjney, we, there's just so much work to do when you're building a new chip company.”Swyx [00:31:08]: Can't fight every front.Anjney [00:31:08]: You just can't fight on every front. So my question to him was, “Well, you're working on this new chip. Their tape-out is next year. What, who are you going to partner with to host the chips?” And he said, “Whoever will host them. That's just not, that's not my focus.” And I said, “But how did you “ you decided back to our earlier systems design question, he decided that, he didn't want to be a full, fully integrated chip provider. The bottleneck they're focused on is the logic die, and they, he feels they can crank out a ton of performance gains through co-design there. But then that means you delegate, to our question earlier, it, you he's the data center provider is a different part of the stack, and so then he's dependent on that part of the ecosystem to host his chips to get the performance gains to the customer. So now you have another abstraction, and you might have loss. So I asked him, “How do you prevent loss?” And back to your point, he said, “I just picked the NVIDIA standard ‘cause I didn't want to Like I wanted to piggyback off of an existing protocol.” And that, what's great about NVIDIA is that reference architecture is known.Swyx [00:32:15]: Open.Anjney [00:32:15]: It's open. They've published it. So Jensen's actually enabled someone like Rainer to build a chip company like MatX, and I don't see them as competitive. The compute demand is so high. Like, I don't I think NVIDIA's not able to meet the demands of production, so we just need more chips. And I think it's very smart what MatX has done, which is say, “We're just going to we're not going to innovate on the data center design ‘cause actually, thank you, Jensen, you've done all the hard work. Where we can innovate is somewhere else.” And I think that's, that's very healthy. I think that's how we unblock new bottlenecks. And my view is these, the, chip teams like MatX, who have arrived at the insight that co-design is the way, The primary bottleneck for them is trust boundary. To do co-design well, you need visibility into the next model generation as soon as possible ‘cause it takes two years to tape out. So if by the time I bring my chip to market, your model architecture's changed, I'm host. Now, when he was inside Google, he was sitting next to the Gemini team. He was on Palm or whatever.Trust Boundaries, Co-Design, and Researcher CEOsSwyx [00:33:19]: His co-founder was the, was one, was one of the Palm guys, I think.Anjney [00:33:23]: Yes. Yes, exactly. So when you're inside the trust boundary of Google, then your systems co-design loop is super tight. When you leave as a founder, one of the biggest risks you take is now you're outside the trust boundary. And so what I love doing is helping chip teams who can help us unlock more capacity for the independent ecosystem access to trust. Because when I If I've been, involved with a lab from day one, and I was lucky enough to work with Anthropic, and then I'm on the board of Mistral and helped Black Forest Labs get started. I think at this point I'm on six or seven different teams.Swyx [00:33:57]: Only six? I feel like my mental number was going to be 13, but yeah, it's-Anjney [00:34:02]: No, I go deep with one at a time.Swyx [00:34:04]: You're founding CEO of Arena.Anjney [00:34:07]: Nah, that was an, that was an-Swyx [00:34:08]: Administrative CEOAnjney [00:34:09]: It was an administrative five-month gig where Whalen and Anastasios were graduating from their PhDs, and they didn't need a product team. So I helped recruit the head of engineering product and design. But Anastasios has always been the CEO of that company. I played a pinch-hitting I'm an intern. I was CEO intern For five months. -Swyx [00:34:33]: I interviewed him, and he's he's very well-spoken. I think he's a debate, former debate, champion. But also very quantitative and mathematical, which is-Anjney [00:34:41]: He-Swyx [00:34:41]: Such a unicorn.Anjney [00:34:43]: See, what's amazing about him? If you look at his output, he's an output maxer. By the time he was graduating from his PhD, which he only graduated last year, he had published more work with a citation count than, people twice his age. But at the same time, he'd already started a project called LLM Arena that was being used by millions of people As a side project. And time and time again, what I've realized is venture capitalists suck at seeing human beings as, dynamic agents where-Swyx [00:35:14]: They want to put you in a boxAnjney [00:35:15]: They want to put you in a box.Swyx [00:35:15]: This is your thing.Anjney [00:35:16]: So the first time I got introduced to Anastasios, somebody had told me “Oh, he's amazing, but he's a researcher.” I was “what? What do you mean he's a researcher?” That's what-Swyx [00:35:28]: Like he's not a CEO, not a founder.Anjney [00:35:29]: Not a CEO, exactly. I was “Are you crazy? Do you Have you met Dario?” Dario's a scientist. He's gone from zero to, what will soon be a trillion-dollar company in four years. Being a CEO, nominally speaking, is not that hard. Being a good CEO is hard. Being a great CEO actually requires a level of performance that scientists who have already published at the top of their field have accomplished. It is super hard to be a competitive scientist. To publish in academia over the last 20, 30 years, to make it to the top of your discipline at a place like Berkeley, you are a star athlete. Like, you are an athlete of the mind, and you perform at the highest levels. And to get there, whether you're, Anastasios or Whalen at Berkeley, or you are Robin, who-Swyx [00:36:23]: BFL, yeahAnjney [00:36:24]: With Black Forest, who created Stable Diffusion, or if you're, like Guillaume at Meta, who created Llama before he started Mistral. The amount of human leadership you have to demonstrate to get the resources, like get the trust of the organization, publish it, put it up. I would just fund researchers all day Right? If who have contributed already to the field. If they've, if they've put SOTA out there, they're, they're star athletes already. If they haven't done SOTA Look, they can still be good CEOs, but then I find the failure mode is that they just don't want to be CEOs, they primarily want to publish, and that's okay, too. One of the things we do with the AMP Grid is we donate excess compute. We have two nonprofits, like university labs. We carved out like a couple thousand H100s. But I do think there's extraordinary research being done on university campuses. My father-in-law's a physicist. He's a professor. Extraordinary work in physics, and we need that. But if you want to be a CEO, what you need to be willing To do is be super confrontational, outside of science. Like within the scientific community, some of the best researchers are very confrontational about their convictions, right? This architecture is right. To be a great CEO, you basically have to be willing to be confrontational up and down the stack.Swyx [00:37:41]: To your own team.Anjney [00:37:42]: To your own team-Swyx [00:37:43]: To customersAnjney [00:37:43]: Hiring, recruiting customers. Well, I would say, Yeah, pretty much to everyone Everybody. Of course-Swyx [00:37:50]: I see, I feel a little bit of that in my own work, but yeah, I can't imagine the stakes that Dario has had to go through. It's, it's pretty insane.Anjney [00:37:56]: No, I don't think the stakes are that different From how you're feeling it, right? Stakes are personal scaling vectors, right? The stakes that seem so low to you, like having this podcast where you can talk to somebody and just have a you're an extraordinary communicator, right? Like already in this conversation, you've pulled more out of me than most people, and I've been on 12 podcasts in the last two weeks.AI Coachella and First-Principles ThinkingSwyx [00:38:17]: I think I, we've just seen each other enough that there's some base trust.Anjney [00:38:20]: There's base trust.Swyx [00:38:20]: And I think, and I know that you, that I've done my homework and like I know that trust is a big deal for you, so.Anjney [00:38:27]: I think trust is about consistency, and you and I have seen each other In the community for years, right? Like, I remember the first time we met was at NeurIPS in New Orleans. I don't know if you remember that, luncheon.Swyx [00:38:38]: Oh my God.Anjney [00:38:39]: Reiko had set up this Reiko's amazing, and he set up this luncheon and-Swyx [00:38:43]: Yeah, I was “Who's this Discord guy?” I'm “Okay.” But-Anjney [00:38:45]: No, you weren't-Swyx [00:38:46]: You were just “You made some investments.”Anjney [00:38:47]: You were much less polite. You were “Who's this VC?” You're like-Swyx [00:38:51]: No, I Was I? Oh my God.Anjney [00:38:53]: It was-Swyx [00:38:53]: I'm so sorryAnjney [00:38:53]: It was visible on your face.Swyx [00:38:54]: I'm so sorry. But you weren't, you weren't The introduction was bad. I was I didn't know who you were.Anjney [00:39:00]: The, see, this is the thing about context, right? Like, but then I think I heard your accent. And I was “Are you-”Swyx [00:39:06]: Singapore, yeahAnjney [00:39:06]: “Are you Singaporean?” And you're “Yeah.” And I said, “I went to high school, JC, in Singapore.” And then the ice broke. But This is the there are in the scientific community, sometimes the stakes are very high for people who haven't had the emotional, what is called EQ Coaching and mentorship, right? Which is like to have scientific impact, you often need to be a extraordinary emotional, like emotionally in tune person with the folks you're trying to influence. And so what comes so naturally to you is actually a super high stakes thing to other people. And so I wouldn't assume that Dario's more stressed out than you. These things are you'd be surprised how similar and small sometimes the problems are to you That some of the world's biggest, leaders are facing. And that's what I've learned from this class. The guest speakers are Sam, Satya, Jensen.Swyx [00:40:01]: AI Coachella.Anjney [00:40:02]: Yeah. It's AI Coachella, right? So we got to get all the headliners, and they're I'm very lucky that some of these people have either mentored me over the years or I've done business with them. And when you, take the performative stuff out and any assumptions you may have about these people that you read in the press or on Twitter, We're all just humans. We're all trying to get along. And what's so special about this moment is AI is forcing, like scaling, the bitter lesson is forcing a lot of people to revise their assumptions for how the world works and go back to first principles or go and educate themselves. So the kind of people I was, I won't name who this person is, but I was at an event last week in Texas and, ran to somebody who said, “Anjney, I came across the class. What do you think about real time action prediction models?” And I was, don't know how happy it made me feel when they asked me that question. I know they've done the work. They've challenged themselves. I'm, they didn't ask me, “What do you think of world models?” They said, “What do you think of n-”Swyx [00:41:04]: Real time action predictionAnjney [00:41:05]: “action, real time action prediction models?” World models, don't get me wrong, are cool and everything, but you and I both know that is a layer of abstraction that is sometimes not usefully precise enough. Right? Ours-Swyx [00:41:16]: There's like four different kinds of world models.Anjney [00:41:17]: Yes, exactly.Swyx [00:41:18]: We've done the part with general intuition, by the way, which is very focused on, -Anjney [00:41:22]: Oh, cool. Yes. I love Pim. Pim is great. And this is what I love about people who've done that level of work. They realize they're not in competition with people who the rest of the world thinks they're in competition with.Swyx [00:41:34]: Because they're not in the category, they're in the specific thing they're trying to do.Anjney [00:41:37]: They're focused on their mission, and they have a systems understanding of the bottleneck they're trying to solve. And when somebody else says, “I'm working on real time, action prediction models too,” Pim goes, “Oh, I love that person. I want, I can learn from them.” But the minute they're “Oh, that person's a world model person,” it's “like which type of world model person?” But mostly they're just trying to figure out if it's a waste of their time, because we don't have enough time. So, Pim, for example, is super, loves this other company I work with we've talked about called Black Forest Labs. And he's mentioned to me multiple times that he's so, He thinks what Flux is doing is really cool. Andy Blattman came by and spoke in the class. And what I find over and over again is for people who do the work, who can be usefully precise enough about like what is actually going on in the world of frontier research, The sense of camaraderie is still well and alive, but it gets lost sometimes when you have to like abstract The technical complexities in, business terms And then the VCs are “How are you different from that world model?” I'm going to say Where do I even start to explain this stuff? And then the misalignment creeps in.Leading vs. Winning in Frontier AISwyx [00:42:43]: This is good. Yeah, I think, people listening get a sense of, what it is like to operate at a real level, like yourself, rather than at, the journalist level, where you have to sort of put everyone in, a rough category and create a narrative of competition, and who's winning today, who's behind.Anjney [00:42:58]: It-- this idea of winning is so Weird to me.Swyx [00:43:03]: You do want to win. You want you want competitiveness.Anjney [00:43:06]: No, I think you want to lead.Swyx [00:43:07]: You want SOTA.Anjney [00:43:07]: No, I think you want to lead. Yes, so you want to push the frontier. You want to push the SOTA. You want to do something that hasn't been done before. You want to capture value, but you don't want to capture so much value that, people think you're unaligned with your mission or trying to do what's best for the world. You want to capture enough value that you can keep innovating, right? And I think that people want to lead, they don't really This idea of winning and losing, again, I love Jensen. He's a, he's a leader. The mindset that he talked about on Dwarkesh's podcast, right? He's “I didn't wake up with a loser mindset.” I think that was awesome, right? Because he's, he's an engineer. Dwarkesh has done the work. So there's at least-- even though the, to me, it was very obvious they're talking about the same thing, they just passed each other. They just had to basically, Jensen has this, five-layer cake abstraction of how the industry works. And Dwarkesh had, I think from that podcast, had more of, a pre-training, mid-training, post-training systems loop concept.Swyx [00:44:04]: It's just a factor of who he talks to, right? Again, it's very clear.Anjney [00:44:06]: It's the systems It's the abstraction, the mental models, the It's the whole-- Dude, so much of the problem in the world is reasoning by analogy. And then the assumptions that are held invisibly.Swyx [00:44:19]: Yeah, I've, I've said, this is actually the best time in human history for first principles thinkers. Because everything you think will happen is actually now coming true.Anjney [00:44:28]: Correct. And the venture capital community is, notorious for this, where people look-- In times of uncertainty, they, cling to axioms that ended up being true from the previous era, and they kind of like proclaim them with confidence as if they're truths, but they're not. And it's very important to see the distinction between a heuristic and an axiom. An axiom can be proven-Swyx [00:44:55]: Like from internal consistency point of viewAnjney [00:44:56]: With internal consistency. A heuristic is a way you kind of a shortcut. And my God, the number of people I have had to put up with over the last few years who proclaim-- use heuristics As axioms to judge people, to judge which companies are going to succeed or the number of people who are “Oh, yeah, Anthropic, they're just training models right now,” but this one continue.Swyx [00:45:22]: Because that's a B2B SaaS?Anjney [00:45:23]: Yeah, the, like Which over the fullness of time, if you squint at it, maybe. But the way you arrive there is so important that you can-- you just, you can dismiss people. Here's what happened, right? What happened is Anthropic basically achieved takeoff in October of last year. That training run-Swyx [00:45:41]: Whatever, three seven?Anjney [00:45:42]: I forget the numbers now, but whatever that checkpoint was-Swyx [00:45:45]: We saw the cognition.Anjney [00:45:46]: Yeah. Right? You probably-- The, to those of us in the community, especially once post-training was done and it was released in December-Swyx [00:45:52]: Yeah. Can I sneak a sneaky question in there? I don't know if you have a perspective, maybe you don't, I just The number one question is how did Anthropic crack coding, right? Because Claude One, Claude Two, okay, like it was part of it, but it wasn't a big deal. And the leading hypothesis, it's a lucky dice roll that was then compounded, right? Like it was like Mildly better, but then they saw it and they were “Okay, let's really invest.”How Anthropic Cracked CodingAnjney [00:46:17]: I had this very annoying teacher. I went to this boarding school called Rishi Valley in India, which is like this, bird preserve. It's like three hundred and fifty acres of bird preserve in rural India, and there was no technology for seven years. There was this teacher, I won't name them, but they would have this-- I hated it every time he said this to me. He was “Luck fa-favors the prepared mind,” which is like a common saying, but the way he delivered it, always grated me, ‘cause he was always I was always one of those kids who got, a good grade without trying very hard. ‘Cause like high middle school is not that hard if you, if you're generally, paying attention and so on. And there was this one time where I-- But then I would get an eighty percent grade, and he would keep pushing me to say “The reason you didn't get the ninety-five plus percent is because you're not that lucky.” And I would say, “What do you mean?” ‘Cause I would think that I deserved that grade, and I would sometimes argue with him. And he'd say, “You didn't have a prepared mind. If you want to get lucky again “ There was basically one time where I got like ninety-five or ninety-six on this, on this subject, and I, now that I felt entitled. I was “Okay, I'm going to keep doing this,” and I didn't. And then he was “Luck favors a prepared mind. You got lucky last time, but you got to stay prepared.” And I didn't understand what he meant. Now, as I'm older, I'm okay, these adults actually knew a thing or two. Anthropic has been the most prepared company for four years. And so then when the right, context data comes in, the right developers start sending in, the right context diffs, Sure, you could say you got lucky, but if you ask me, they're pr-pretty damn prepared with paranoia for like four years. And you have to remember, it was so hard for them to get going early on that they had to do so much more with so much less that you just have to be prepared to be so efficient.Swyx [00:48:06]: Yes. There's numbers on their burn compared to OpenAI. I've, I've written about it, but they are so much more efficient in their, in their tech stack.Anjney [00:48:14]: It's not even It's not funny.Swyx [00:48:14]: Not even close.Anjney [00:48:15]: Yeah. But it's so clear, right? Like how to output max for the world. They have been prepared, and you could call that luck, but Luck favors the prepared mind.Culture, Hardship, and Anthropic's P0Swyx [00:48:25]: This is one of those things that I was going over some of your old lectures and, you were data, people think it's a moat and actually it's culture and actually it's team Actually. And I, it's-- there's different levels of moats, and this is the ultimate one that determines everything else. Which you can then compoundAnjney [00:48:43]: You're saying culture is the ultimate moat? Yeah. But the thing about culture is it's very fragile. So moats, I don't think they're-- there's very few moats I found that are actually moats. They're-- It's, it's a nice concept, but in reality, you have to replenish your culture. Ben Horowitz was, the speaker in CS153 on Tuesday, and I asked him this question about the culture bottleneck in teams because, there are several AI teams-Swyx [00:49:09]: His book, Hard Things About Hard ThingsAnjney [00:49:11]: Hard Thing About Hard Things. But more concretely, there are so many AI labs today that have all the cash they need, they have all the compute they need, and they're still not able to ship anything SOTA. And then you start seeing people leave and so on, and my diagnosis, it's, is it's the culture. And so I asked him, Ben, they're-- He's been one of the most aggressive investors in AI labs. He goes back to this thing which resonates in my mind a lot. It-- When I used to work at a16z, I would, book a conference room, and right outside the conference room, which is closest to the toilet ‘cause it was the fastest way for me to go use the bathroom between Zoom meetings-Swyx [00:49:45]: Oh my God, I'll put maxing my toilet optimization. Okay, never mind.Anjney [00:49:48]: It was not healthy in hindsight, but maybe this is TMI. But anyway, outside that conference on the wall was this quote that was printed that said, “Culture is not a set of beliefs, it's a set of actions.” And it's by Bushido, is this, Japanese philosopher. And if you stop taking the actions that demonstrate the mission alignment to what you've said to your team and to your-- the world matters to you, then your culture starts to fray. So it's not actually a moat, I would say. It's a very brittle, fragile thing that requires daily tending to like a garden. But if you figure out the system to keep that garden tended, which I think ultimately comes down to knowing yourself ‘cause you most naturally, if you're authentic and so on, you'll naturally make trade-offs that seem effortless to you, but that reinforce your culture. And then That becomes this very hard thing for other people to catch up to. And at Anthropic, from day one, there was this mission like-- missionary like zeal and belief that, hey, these capabilities will scale. These systems are stochastic, not deterministic. There will be error bars, and until we crack interpretability, there's risk. And at some point, people will go-- stop using Claude just for coding. They'll use it in some mission-critical context where there's-- it'll throw off a bug, and then people are going to come blame them, and they want to be on the right side of history where they said, “Yes, this is a powerful technology. We think it's going to change the world, And we want to be very measured and scientific about the fact that, ‘Hey, guys, these are stats models, statistical models.' That's how statistics works.” ultimately, when you're training neural nets, it is just a statistical system. And I think that Belief that safety is important and that it might seem toy-like in the early days, and sometimes, you could say, “Anjney, they totally over-exaggerated the risk,” like two years ago when they said, “Let's not launch Claude One,” or whatever. Well, okay, maybe in hindsight, but hindsight is twenty/twenty. And at the time, they didn't know how that model would be used, and to them it felt existential if somebody came and said, “You weren't responsible. It-- This wrote a bug.” The liability associated with that is massive. So how do you prevent against that? Well, day in, day out, you say safety. And when you start deviating from that, you have the team hold you accountable, you have the world hold you accountable, and I think that becomes a moat over time. At some point, that moat will get challenged and so on, and then it become fragile. I hope it endures because that's the beauty of having founders run the show, ‘cause they can make really hard trade-offs to do mission alignment. The hardest part is in the earliest days when you don't have a group of people who are going through difficulty, stress, crisis together, then your culture doesn't get defined sharply enough, and that's what I'm worried about right now, is there's so much money going to these labs. There's no hardship. There's no-Swyx [00:52:50]: To anyone who knowsAnjney [00:52:51]: There's no to anyone who knows. And that, in hindsight, was a feature, not a bug for Anthropic. The number of people who said no, the number of people who said, “Sorry, we're all doing investors in OpenAI,” that is competitive difference. It forces you to really understand, what is the hill you want to die on at the expense of everything else. What's the P zero? And there, P zero from day one was coding. The reason, the mechanism system there was if we crack coding, Then we will crack AGI. Our mission is AGI. We want to get there safely. If we focus on codin

Are you concerned about AI threats to your privacy? If you aren't, Darren's got a few reasons why you should be! Images of fingerprints and keys, wifi signals and more could leave you vulnerable to bad actors using AI. Adam wonders why the order status screens at McDonald's and other fast food restaurants often have inaccurate information. The problem leading to this is due to a problem known as Goodhart's Law.

Created by St. Louisan Lindsey Goodhart, “Closet Space” is a sapphic blind dating show that fosters a welcoming space for the LGBTQ community through its live studio audience. Goodhart reflects on how the show has sparked genuine connections and the importance of establishing dedicated queer spaces in Missouri, both on and off the stage.

The damage from your Q1 goal doesn't show up until Q3, on someone else's dashboard, after the person who flagged it got fired.Part 2 of the Outcome Trap series. Brian and Om argue why you can't see the trap from inside it: second-order effects land too late to trace, the people who spot trouble get removed, and the truth fractures across team dashboards until nobody owns the whole picture. By the end you'll have questions to ask before any number you set quietly destroys the business.Listen or watch as we discuss and debate:Why Goodhart's Law turns every new leading indicator into another surface to gameHow Sears split into 40 competing units and imploded while every department hit its OKRsThe Wells Fargo whistleblower fired for 'tardiness' eight days after calling the ethics hotlineWhy Deming's 1986 warning to eliminate numerical goals got ignored for forty yearsTwo questions to ask before setting any targetIf you've ever been in a company where every conceivable metric was green while the business slowly bleed out, this podcast is for you!.#OKRs #Deming #GoodhartsLawW. Edwards Deming (Out of the Crisis, The New Economics), Goodhart's Law, Peter Senge The Fifth Discipline, The People's Republic of Walmart, Sears (Eddie Lampert), Wells Fargo (Bill Bado), Frances Haugen Facebook testimony, Careless People by Sarah Wynn-WilliamsLINKSYouTube: https://youtu.be/BuWgxH8VpRISpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/362QvYORmtZRKAeTAE57v3Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/agile-podcast/id1568557596INTRO MUSICToronto Is My BeatBy Whitewolf (Source: https://ccmixter.org/files/whitewolf225/60181)CC BY 4.0 DEED (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en)

Award winning jazz saxophonist and broadcaster Soweto Kinch and writer and director of new film Köln 75, Ido Fluk, join Tom to explore the importance of Keith Jarrett's seminal performance at the Cologne Opera House in 1975, and its subsequent album, which became the bestselling solo album in jazz history.Sex Education and Rivals writer Sophie Goodhart on her award-winning comedy-drama Alice and Steve, starring Nicola Walker and Jemaine Clement. It's about best friends turned enemies, after Steve starts dating Alice's 26-year-old daughter.Cultural historian Thomas W. Laqueur talks about depictions of dogs in art, as he publishes his new book The Dog's Gaze.Critic Clarisse Loughrey talks about how small screen directors and creators on YouTube have made the leap to Hollywood's big leagues, with films like Obsession and Backrooms breaking box office records and driving Gen Z to the cinemas.Presenter: Tom Sutcliffe Presenter: Claire Bartleet

You've invested in the dashboards. You've declared data a top priority. So why does transformation still feel out of reach? In this episode, Brandon Laws sits down with Dr. Sebastian Wernicke, author of Data Inspired: Building an Organizational Culture of Inquiry for Lasting Transformation, to unpack one of business's most frustrating paradoxes: companies that succeed at data... and still don't change. Sebastian challenges the conventional wisdom around data-driven organizations, reveals why human psychology is working against your data strategy, and introduces a more powerful mindset: becoming data inspired. From Goodhart's Law to Netflix's bold decision-making model, this conversation is loaded with ideas that will fundamentally change how you think about data, leadership, and organizational transformation. Don't miss it. Key Timestamps [00:00] — Welcome & Introduction to Data Inspired [00:39] — The bold opening argument: data initiatives don't fail; they succeed at keeping organizations the same. Sebastian unpacks the difference between getting modest value from data and achieving true transformation, and why only ~10% of companies ever get there. [07:38] — Are organizations paralyzed by too much data? Sebastian explains why collecting more data is often a way of avoiding the harder, more courageous work of challenging your own assumptions. [09:39] — What "data-driven" actually means in practice and why it's harder than it sounds. Sebastian introduces the "data deficit theory" and draws on 50 years of psychological research showing that data often hardens our existing beliefs rather than changing them. [13:45] — The Charles Barkley moment: what a legendary NBA star's skepticism about data analysts gets right and wrong about using data in sports and business. [16:03] — How data is collected and used in modern organizations, and why the real challenge isn't gathering data; it's organizing it. (Yes, there's a "data swamp" warning here.) [18:00] — Why the classic 8-step decision-making model is a myth. Sebastian explains what monkey brain research and animal herds reveal about how decisions are actually made and what that means for how you introduce data into the process. [22:36] — Goodhart's Law and the GE cautionary tale: the dangerous difference between steering metrics and success metrics, and what happens when leaders confuse the two. [25:38] — The decision-making spectrum: from fully automated machine-learning decisions to pure gut instinct and how Netflix found the sweet spot between data and human judgment. [30:17] — AI vs. machine learning: why we're wired to trust the type of automated decision-making that's actually less reliable and what that means for your organization right now. [33:34] — Data fatigue is real. Sebastian introduces two archetypes, the Dashboard Director and the Data Diver, and explains why you need both to build a truly innovative organization. [36:31] — A peek into Part 5: The Toolbox, with practical checklists, workshop formats, and tried-and-tested methods developed over 20 years of real-world data projects. [39:03] — Closing wisdom: why copying what successful companies did is a trap, and what it really takes to lead transformative change with data, including the courage to slow down before you speed up. A QUICK GLIMPSE INTO OUR PODCAST Podcast: Transform Your Workplace, sponsored by Xenium HR Host: Brandon Laws In Brandon's own words: "The Transform Your Workplace podcast is your go-to source for the latest workplace trends, big ideas, and time-tested methods straight from the mouths of industry experts and respected thought-leaders." About Xenium HR Xenium HR is on a mission to transform workplaces by providing expert outsourced HR and payroll services for small and medium-sized businesses. With a people-first approach, Xenium helps organizations create thriving work environments where employees feel valued and supported. From navigating compliance to enhancing workplace culture, Xenium offers tailored solutions that empower growth and simplify HR. Whether managing employee relations, payroll processing, or implementing impactful training programs, Xenium is the trusted partner businesses rely on to elevate their workplace experience. Discover how Xenium can transform your workplace: Learn more Connect with Brandon Laws: LinkedIn | Instagram | About Connect with Xenium HR: Website | LinkedIn | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube

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If you've ever wondered whether your endurance base could carry you into gravel or mountain bike racing — or whether your FTP is really the thing holding you back — this episode is a timely reality check. Dave Schell is the founder of Kaizen Endurance, based in Boulder, Colorado, and has spent 15 years coaching cyclists and endurance athletes through some of the most demanding events on the calendar — Unbound 200, Leadville, ultra-distance gravel and mountain bike. Before that, he spent seven years at Training Peaks as coach education manager, so he understands both the science and the real-world application better than most. We talk about why FTP is overrated as a race predictor, why skill and technique will give you more free speed than another training block, how to actually prepare your body for eight to ten hours in the saddle, the mental game of ultra-distance events, and why consistency remains the most unsexy and most powerful tool any athlete has. There's a lot in here that applies well beyond gravel.   5 KEY POINTS FTP is overrated for long events — after eight hours everyone regresses to the same sustainable pace. Durability and fat oxidation decide the result. Skill delivers free speed — technique improvements will outperform another fitness block for most athletes, most of the time. Race your race bike — training on the road and racing gravel leaves your body unprepared for the physical demands, regardless of fitness level. Recovery is where adaptation happens — most athletes need permission to rest, not encouragement to go harder. Consistency is the only secret — the work never changes, you just keep doing it week after week. 3 TAKEAWAYS Sign up for something that scares you — if there's no real possibility of failure, you'll wing it. The fear is what gets you out the door. Context beats data — RPE and athlete feedback tell you more than power numbers alone. Data without context is just noise. Extreme moderation wins — train at the right load, not the highest load. The athletes who stay consistent are the ones who progress. KILLER QUOTE

American psychiatry has built a sociological armor around itself that protects it from reform. The armor has two parts. Reverence and complexity. Together they form the most effective institutional defense system in American professional life. And the apparatus, in 2026, has evolved its most refined defensive move yet, the DSM-6 roadmap, which absorbs the entire body of structural critique against the field by publishing thoughtful documents acknowledging the critique is correct, while channeling an entire generation of reform energy into bureaucratic processes that will conclude, eventually, with the publication of a new manual that incorporates the language of the critique without changing what the manual does. Why the apparatus persists despite forty years of evidence it is failing. How residency capture, modality capture, and credentialing capture work together to produce a workforce whose tolerance for the mystery of the work has been systematically lowered. What would have to change. And why none of the obvious answers are actually answers. This episode covers: Of Two Minds. Tanya Luhrmann's anthropology of American psychiatric residency. How young doctors who enter training wanting to think across biological and psychological registers get formed, by the reward structure of training itself, into single-register practitioners. Why this is happening right now to the residents who started in 2025, and why the AI replacement is going to be welcomed by the field that has been preparing for it for a generation. How Aaron Beck got eaten. The careful, curious clinician who let his data change his mind. The three properties of cognitive therapy that made it perfectly compatible with the emerging managed care apparatus. Why Beck himself was not the version of Beck that got reproduced in the training programs. The selection pressure that captures every modality with the same properties, regardless of the founder's intent. The ABA parallel. Ivar Lovaas, the 1987 study, the autism insurance mandates, the BACB explosion. Why Applied Behavior Analysis became mandatory standard of care despite extensive evidence of harm from the autistic community. Henny Kupferstein on PTSD outcomes. The Autistic Self Advocacy Network. Private equity acquisition of ABA chains and what the moral crumple zone looks like at scale. Measurement as the real religion. The PHQ-9 and GAD-7 as Pfizer-funded screening instruments that became, by capture and convenience, the definitions of depression and anxiety in American clinical practice. Campbell's Law. Goodhart's Law. Theodore Porter on quantification as defense against weak internal authority. The IAPT case study from England, Layard's economic argument, David Clark's CBT rollout, Michael Scott's outcome research, Farhad Dalal's cognitive-behavioral tsunami. Why the entire international model of measurement-based care produces excellent statistics and very little durable change. The critics the apparatus could not absorb. Robert Whitaker on long-term outcomes and Anatomy of an Epidemic. Joanna Moncrieff and the 2022 serotonin meta-analysis that should have ended the chemical imbalance theory and didn't. Lisa Cosgrove on DSM-5-TR financial conflicts of interest. Why each of them produced exactly the kind of evidence that should have triggered structural reform, and why the apparatus dismissed each of them through credentialing arguments that were really about boundary policing. The DSM-6 trap. The closure-of-the-trap argument. Why the DSM-6 roadmap, which concedes the entire structural critique, is the apparatus's most sophisticated defensive move yet. Why being invited to participate in the DSM-6 working groups is the mechanism by which the next decade of reform energy gets neutralized. Why the manual is downstream of the apparatus and reforming the manual cannot reform the apparatus. Enshittification of care. Cory Doctorow's framework applied to American mental health. The four constraints that should have prevented it. How each was eliminated. Madeleine Clare Elish on moral crumple zones. Why clinicians absorb the moral and financial cost of an apparatus they did not design. The diploma mill. The accreditation conflict of interest. Why MSW programs, counseling programs, and PsyD programs have doubled their output without any accountability for what they produce. The accountability inversion. The structural fix. Why schools and boards should be liable for the clinicians they produce. Why the field needs both rigorous selection and rigorous accountability, and how the current system has neither. What would change if the field stopped being a diploma mill. Why this is not a return to Freud's priest class. Disagreement was the wisdom. Why the productive conflict between schools of thought was where psychology was actually thinking, and why the DSM-III atheoretical move killed the conversation that produced wisdom. Neither side wins. Why the cold machine and the warm ghost both need each other. Why the answer is not to defeat the apparatus but to stop mistaking it for the work. The coda. The Machines Will Start to Dream. The actual ending of the series. Why you do not need a conspiracy theory for any of this. The cold machines are nothing, the warm ghost is everything. The microcosm is the macrocosm because the systems are human. The AI threat as reality splitting, where the simulated layer becomes thick enough that the substrate underneath stops being accessible. Freud's permanent problem. Bureaucracy as the most successful avoidance technology humans have ever invented. The disbelief at the root. The question of whether you are more scared of yourself than of not seeing life clearly. The wager that even if humans always refuse, professional psychology should stop being the most refined refusal in the culture. About the host: Joel Blackstock is a Licensed Independent Clinical Social Worker and Clinical Supervisor, the Clinical Director of Taproot Therapy Collective in Hoover, Alabama, and the author of work on Brainspotting, Emotional Transformation Therapy, qEEG neurofeedback, somatic and depth approaches to trauma. Find more at gettherapybirmingham.com. This is the final episode of a nine-part series. #PsychotherapyOnTheCouch #AmericanConfession #DSMReform #DSM6 #DSMCritique #DiagnosticAndStatisticalManual #APA #AmericanPsychiatricAssociation #PsychiatryReform #MentalHealthReform #PsychotherapyReform #TanyaLuhrmann #OfTwoMinds #PsychiatricResidency #AaronBeck #CognitiveTherapy #CBT #CognitiveBehavioralTherapy #ABA #AppliedBehaviorAnalysis #IvarLovaas #BACB #AutismRights #AutisticSelfAdvocacy #ASAN #HennyKupferstein #PHQ9 #GAD7 #MeasurementBasedCare #CampbellsLaw #GoodhartsLaw #TheodoreporPorter #TrustInNumbers #IAPT #RichardLayard #DavidClark #MichaelScott #FarhadDalal #CognitiveBehaviouralTsunami #RobertWhitaker #AnatomyOfAnEpidemic #MadInAmerica #JoannaMoncrieff #SerotoninHypothesis #ChemicalImbalance #SSRIs #Antidepressants #LisaCosgrove #PsychiatryUnderTheInfluence #ConflictOfInterest #PharmaInfluence #BigPharma #Enshittification #CoryDoctorow #RotEconomy #EdZitron #MoralCrumpleZone #MadeleineCElish #InsuranceMentalHealth #GhostNetworks #MentalHealthParity #DiplomaMill #SocialWorkEducation #MSWPrograms #PsyD #CounselingEducation #CACREP #CSWE #APAAccreditation #LicensingBoards #ClinicalSupervision #AccountabilityInversion #PsychotherapyTraining #PsychiatricTraining #PsychologyHistory #PsychiatryHistory #FreudCivilizationDiscontents #JungianTherapy #DepthPsychology #SomaticTherapy #TraumaTherapy #ComplexTrauma #AITherapy #AIReplacingTherapists #ChatGPTTherapy #FutureOfTherapy #PsychotherapyPodcast #PsychiatryPodcast #PsychologyPodcast #MentalHealthPodcast #ClinicalSocialWork #JoelBlackstock #LICSW #TaprootTherapy #BirminghamAlabama #AlabamaTherapy #HooverAlabama #ColdMachinesWarmGhosts #TheMostSacredThingWeHave #TheMachinesWillStartToDream #WarmGhost #ReverenceAndComplexity #ProfessionalCapture #InstitutionalCapture #RegulatoryCapture #EvidenceBasedPractice #EvidenceBasedCritique #BiologicalPsychiatry #PsychiatryEpistemology

Most founders set out to build something that matters: a company that's aligned with their mission, now and forever. But what if the very systems we use to build ‘real' companies are the thing that corrupts them?In this episode, Yaniv Bernstein is joined by Silicon Valley legend Eric Ries author of the era-defining 'The Lean Startup', founder of the Long-Term Stock Exchange, and now the author of a provocative new book, 'Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Companies Stay Great'.Eric makes the case that corruption is a structural problem, rather than a failing of the people themselves. He walks Yaniv through the ‘financial gravity' that pulls good companies away from their founders' purpose, and the governance ‘fortresses' that a small handful of outlier companies (from Costco to Novo Nordisk to Anthropic) have used to stay great.In this episode, you will:Understand ‘financial gravity' - the force that degrades values, corrupts economic decisions, and reduces long-term outcomesLearn the legend of Sol Price (the father of modern retail behind Costco), and why treating margins as a liability rather than a virtue can be a source of enduring strengthExplore the ‘industrial foundation' model behind century-old giants like Novo Nordisk and Zeiss, and why companies with this structure are roughly 6x more likely to survive to year 50Hear how Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust shaped its trajectory, and why in the age of AI, trustworthiness is the single most valuable corporate assetTimestamps00:00 Coming Up...01:06 On Today's Show: Eric Ries, author of The Lean Startup and Incorruptible02:41 From 'The Lean Startup' to 'Incorruptible': Why Governance Matters04:13 The Two Mysteries05:45 Case Study: Sol Price and FedMart08:58 The Shareholder Primacy Trap14:04 Costco's Governance Fortress16:50 Founder Control vs VCs19:33 Why Markets Punish Your Mission21:30 Novo Nordisk's Foundation Model26:35 Anthropic and AI Trust29:37 Governance in Action Today31:54 Doing the Right Thing33:27 Goodhart's Law and Customer Service Metrics38:36 Why 'Harder Is Easier'39:02 Costco's Hotdog Promise41:55 Mission Lock Structures43:32 Pitching Investors, Leverage and the Fundraising Decision Tree49:33 HBO's Silicon Valley and 'Minimum Viable Product'53:57 Closing Thoughts & Book PlugResources mentioned in this episode'Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad... and How Great Companies Stay Great' by Eric Ries: https://www.incorruptible.co/'The Lean Startup' by Eric Ries: https://theleanstartup.com/bookLong-Term Stock Exchange (LTSE): https://ltse.com/'Skin in the Game' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646Mark Cuban's Cost Plus Drugs: https://costplusdrugs.com/The PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us here on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjm1MTdjysRRV07fSf0yGgGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

Somewhere in the last forty years, quantification stopped being one tool of economic governance among others and became the whole operating system. Inside the firm, shareholder value crowded out almost every other account of what a company was supposed to be for. In macroeconomic debate, GDP figures got promoted from diagnostic instrument to final verdict on whether things were going well (never mind what was happening to the people who couldn't afford the rent). Public agencies and universities were quietly retooled around audit regimes and key performance indicators imported from the private sector. The labor process itself now runs through dashboards that watch workers in real time and convert what they do into figures someone in a different building can rank against last quarter's. Whatever the explicit politics of the moment, almost every institution we pass through has been redesigned to produce numbers, and to be evaluated and disciplined by them.Goodhart's Law, the 1975 observation by economist Charles Goodhart that "when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure," was originally a narrow point about central banks losing their grip on whatever indicator they picked to control. In the half-century since, it has quietly become a more acute diagnostic of late-capitalist life. If our institutions are now built to hit numbers, regardless of whether they're still doing the things those numbers were supposed to track, what exactly are those institutions for anymore? Who benefits from rule by metric, and who gets to decide which metric counts? Once the dashboard has been built into the architecture of political economy itself, what would it even look like to push back against it?Grab a drink and join us as we ask what our institutions were supposed to be for, before they all became scoreboards.Full episode notes available at this link:https://hotelbarpodcast.com/podcast/goodhartslaw---------------------SUBSCRIBE to the podcast now to automatically download new episodes!SUPPORT Hotel Bar Sessions podcast on Patreon here! (Or by contributing one-time donations here!)BOOKMARK the Hotel Bar Sessions website here for detailed show notes and reading lists, and contact any of our co-hosts here.Hotel Bar Sessions is also on Facebook, YouTube, BlueSky, Instagram, and TikTok. Like, follow, share, duet, whatever... just make sure your friends know about us! ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

I came up with at least one way to tell the difference between making a fair profit and profiteering. If someone makes more money when the patients or members they serve are worse off, yeah, call that profiteering. For a full transcript of this episode, click here. If you enjoy this podcast, be sure to subscribe to the free weekly newsletter to be a member of the Relentless Tribe. For more on what is fair profit versus what is profiteering, I would recommend you go back and listen to the episodes on mission and margin with Ben Schwartz, MD, MBA (EP481) and then with Mick Connors, MD (EP495). But it's probably not an accident that I have started an episode about Medicare Advantage in this fashion. To this end, I am very much looking forward to hearing what's up with Medicare Advantage from the one and only Betsy Seals, who is back for her third appearance on Relentless Health Value. And her advice in a nutshell is this: Don't profiteer. There are ample ways to make a fair profit. Just go back to basics and do it the right way. I wanna kind of tick through the list of things that I think about when I think about Medicare Advantage and just how it is relevant to absolutely everybody. The first thing I think about when I think about Medicare Advantage—and this is very obvious—is what Medicare Advantage plans do or don't do are our tax dollars at work or not at work, as the case may be. Along these same lines, the second thing: How does this impact our elders, our family, our friends, our grandparents? These are our senior citizens, getting the care or not getting the care that they may need. Those two are obvious. Now let's talk about a few less obvious things. Here's the third point that I think about as I listen to conversations about Medicare Advantage: cost shifting. Right? It is a well-known fact how big, vertically integrated carriers—and when I say big, vertically integrated carriers, I mean ones that have a Medicare Advantage line of business—when negotiating with big, consolidated health systems, the release valve of those negotiations is commercial rates. These are the rates that the self-insured employers are paying. So, the carrier says, "Look, gimme the best Medicare Advantage rates. I want the best Medicare Advantage rates because I, the carrier, am paying for those." Savings from those lower rates accrues to the Medicare Advantage plan and its shareholders or investors or executives, right? So, the carrier with the Medicare Advantage plan is like, "Look, go as low as we can go on the Medicare Advantage rates, but it's okay, health system, if you make up the difference with the ASO commercial book of business." Because right … ASO means administrative services only. It's not the carrier who's paying those commercial rates at the end of the day. So, the carrier uses its full book of business to negotiate lower rates for itself while, at the same time, cost shifting to commercial members. In fact, there was some research that was cited. It was episode 436 with Elizabeth Mitchell, and I quoted Luke Prettol. But there was research that puts this markup at 4.7% above what employers would otherwise pay if they had an ASO that did not have a Medicare Advantage Plan. So, yeah … number three big thing that I think about when listening to MA insights like the ones that Betsy drops today, I think about will this accelerate or ameliorate or really have anything to do with what is going on around those negotiating tables with ASOs and health systems? Because let's not forget, health systems account for about 50% of most self-insured employers' total health spend. The fourth thing that I think about: Will MA carriers underpay independent practices, especially primary care practices? Will it pay indies less? And then if it pays 'em a lot less, would ultimately manage to put them out of business, ultimately raising the total cost of care for everybody. But if we're thinking about this strictly from Medicare Advantage financial perspective, a really great move here, these are big, vertically integrated companies, don't forget. Many of them own provider organizations. This is why the FTC tends to frown on vertical integration. So, will these Medicare Advantage organizations who own provider organizations pay the provider organizations they own more? By the way, it's the same thing that's going on on the pharmacy side of the house when a PBM pays pharmacies that they own more. Here's a LinkedIn post by Stanley Warren about this topic. And there are a lot of obvious, maybe less obvious reasons for why paying providers the carrier itself owns more is a great short-term move. One of them is intracompany eliminations. Listen to the episode with Preston Alexander (EP482). But here's another reason: Rate increases paid by the government for Medicare Advantage plans are based on fee-for-service benchmarks. So, if fee-for-service rates go up, then the Medicare Advantage plans can negotiate more money for themselves. If the MA plans own the providers that are charging said FFS rates, then this is, I don't know, a great strategy, especially given the lobbying budget that some of these entities have. So, look … on today's show, I get the distinct opportunity to speak with Betsy Seals, my guest today, as I mentioned earlier; and we go through her advice for MA plans and what they need to get busy with and ensure, make a fair profit, go back to basics, and do it the right way. That's her bottom-line advice. Don't be putting your hands in the cookie jar. Sooner or later, you're gonna get caught. Focus on the members that you're really good at serving. And lastly, when it comes to STARS or other quality measures, lift them the right way—like, actually through better member health and actually better member experience, not some engineered mechanism by which one can check a box that honestly doesn't deserve to get checked. Because now we're back to the beginning and you're gonna get caught with your hand in the cookie jar, and it's profiteering. Let's just get real about that. If somebody's checking boxes that they don't deserve to check, member health is not improving. Betsy Seals, my guest today, as I have said at least three times, co-founded Rebellis Group, which is a Medicare Advantage consultancy. She became CEO of its parent company, Alerion Advisors. Now she is a board member, and also she works with start-ups in our industry. This podcast is sponsored by Aventria Health Group with an assist today from Payerset to help us with the financial support that we need to stay on the air. And with that, here is my conversation with Betsy Seals. Also mentioned in this episode are Alerion Advisors; Rebellis Group; Benjamin Schwartz, MD, MBA; Mick Connors, MD; Elizabeth Mitchell; Luke Prettol; Luke Trocchio; LoVasco; Stanley Warren; Preston Alexander; Aventria Health Group; Payerset; Eric Bricker, MD; Scott Conard, MD; Bob Herman; and Vivian Ho, PhD. For a list of healthcare industry acronyms and terms that may be unfamiliar to you, click here.   You can learn more by visiting the Rebellis Group blog and by connecting with Betsy on LinkedIn. You can also email her at bseals@rebellisgroup.com.     Betsy Seals is the co-founder of Rebellis Group, former CEO of Rebellis Group and Alerion Advisors, and a current board member of the Alerion Advisors family of companies. With over 25 years of experience across Medicare and Medicaid programs, Betsy is a nationally recognized leader known for her regulatory expertise, strategic vision, and ability to deliver measurable results. Betsy's work spans mergers and acquisitions, compliance, enterprise strategy, sales and marketing, supplemental benefits, and innovative benefit design that optimizes health plan performance and improves health outcomes. Betsy brings a strong blend of executive leadership, business acumen, and deep regulatory knowledge, with a focus on driving operational excellence and meaningful member impact.   00:00 Introduction to this episode. 00:43 Past episodes on profiteering: EP481 with Benjamin Schwartz, MD, MBA, and EP495 with Mick Connors, MD. 01:25 How Medicare Advantage is relevant to everyone. 06:15 A preview of today's conversation. 07:49 The "state of the state" of Medicare Advantage plans. 08:49 Video by Eric Bricker, MD, on the financial performance of the U.S. healthcare system. 09:32 Does Medicare Advantage's losses matter to the patients? 10:29 A recap of Betsy's insights so far. 11:19 The underlying strategic through line that needs to be considered. 13:04 The impact of Goodhart's Law. 14:12 What the players that are succeeding right now are doing. 14:22 The first pillar of a back-to-basics strategy: Don't get caught with your hand in the cookie jar. 16:07 EP463 with Betsy Seals. 16:50 Why short-term strategies don't work. 18:26 Stats report on prior authorizations serving the beneficiary. 19:32 EP482 with Preston Alexander. 19:38 Why prior authorization needs change. 21:28 The better strategy to use. 21:43 EP462 with Scott Conard, MD. 23:17 The second pillar of a back-to-basics strategy: Focus on the beneficiaries you actually serve well. 24:37 What it looks like to implement this focus on the beneficiaries you serve well. 25:29 How special needs plans play into this. 27:43 The third pillar of a back-to-basics strategy: Think about how STARS in clinical programs improve health. 30:04 The ethical component to implementing a Medicare Advantage program. 31:04 Betsy's advice for independent practices dealing with prior authorizations. 33:37 STAT article by Bob Herman about the effectiveness of Medicare Advantage lobbying on policy. 34:08 Betsy's final notes for all players impacted by what's currently happening.   @betsyseals discusses the impact of #medicareadvantage news on our #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #podcast #financialhealth #commercialpayermarketplace #digitalhealth #healthcareleadership #healthcaretransformation #healthcareinnovation   Recent past interviews: Click a guest's name for their latest RHV episode! Patrick Nelli; Lee Lewis; Stacey Richter with 15 experts (EP507); Jerry DiMaso; Dr Ahilan Sivaganesan; Ryan Jacobs; Stacey Richter (INBW46); Ryan Wells, Dr Leo Spector, and Adam Stavisky  

Peter Merel: AI Alignment Is the Agile Coach's Next Frontier — Using Throughput Accounting and Pull-Based Transformation to Prove Value Read the full Show Notes and search through the world's largest audio library on Agile and Scrum directly on the Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast website: http://bit.ly/SMTP_ShowNotes.   "Our jobs ARE about alignment. Alignment is how do we get all of the people and all of the tools to work together for mutual benefit." - Peter Merel   Peter Merel brings a provocative perspective on the biggest challenge facing agile professionals today: AI and agile alignment. With AI rapidly advancing, Peter observes that everyone in the agile community is afraid for their jobs — but argues this fear is misplaced. The real challenge isn't replacement; it's alignment. How do we get biological and electronic entities to work together for mutual benefit? Peter's answer begins with pull-based transformation — building a thin steel thread from business through to DevOps, proving it works with a small group, then growing it. He connects this to Goldratt's throughput accounting, arguing that throughput (operating expense plus net profit) is the only metric immune to Goodhart's Law. From throughput, Peter derives three flows: value flow (throughput itself), workflow (the first derivative — what increases value flow), and learning flow (the second derivative — what improves workflow). He then introduces the pirate metrics (AARRR) — acquisition, activation, retention, referral, and revenue — as market constraints that can be analyzed through Theory of Constraints. Peter's frustration is that 25 years after Agile began, most business stakeholders still can't identify their market bottleneck. Without that knowledge, he argues, priorities are meaningless. The path forward for agile coaches? Bring scientific rigor to transformation, measure what matters, and prove value before scaling.   In this episode, we refer to FAST Agile, Joe Justice's work with Tesla and WikiSpeed, and the connection between throughput accounting and agile transformation metrics.   Self-reflection Question: Can you identify the single biggest market constraint limiting your organization's throughput right now — and if not, how confident are you that your current priorities are the right ones?   [The Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast Recommends]

People will let AI be their therapist but not their partner, their assistant but not their manager. Gillian Katz of Hannah Grey VC joins Phillip and Brian to unpack the firm's newest Cultural Vibrations journal and the qualitative study behind it: a read on how people are actually negotiating AI's role in their lives, domain by domain, role by role; from anthropology to sommelier frameworks to Goodhart's Law. You Can Manage AI, but AI Can't Manage You Key Takeaways: People accept AI in almost every domain, but reject it in specific roles within them. Naming a cultural signal may be what stops it from moving. Qualitative research captures what dashboard culture flattens. The next frontier isn't the technology, it's the governance around it. Key Quotes: [00:11:04] "No one wants to be managed by a machine, but they're okay to sort of put control over one." — Gillian Katz [00:27:08] "It's exactly like the way you wish every person interacted. But if you did actually have that experience time and time again, you would be so frustrated." — Gillian Katz, on AI sycophancy [00:29:22] "We give people the benefit of the doubt, but we expect a hundred percent accuracy from AI." — Gillian Katz [00:40:56] "If you only use AI to go build your business, you're gonna lose the discernment that's required to actually use AI well in the first place." — Brian Lange In-Show Mentions: Learn more at hannahgrey.com Read the latest issue of Cultural Vibrations, featuring Brian Lange Associated Links: Check out Future Commerce on YouTube Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ross Goodhart is Co-CEO and a Founder of Jupiter—the new standard in dandruff care,delivering clean, elevated, and seriously effective dandruff care products. He was born andraised in Hawaii, and received his B.B.A from the University of Michigan School of Business in2002, with an emphasis in Finance, Accounting and Entrepreneurship.From 2002 to 2015, Ross worked in investment banking at Peter J. Solomon Company andthen private equity at Siguler Guff & Company, managing funds focused on consumer andtech investments in emerging markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Agenturen und Freelancer: Stunden tracken vs. Wert-basiert abrechnenStunden schreiben, Tickets buchen, Angebote schätzen und am Ende trotzdem das Gefühl haben, am eigentlichen Problem vorbeizuarbeiten. Kommt dir bekannt vor? Dann ist diese Episode genau dein Ding. Denn wir gehen einer Frage nach, die viele in Agenturen, im Freelancing und in der Softwareentwicklung beschäftigt. Was passiert, wenn wir nicht mehr primär Zeit verkaufen, sondern Wert? Und warum wird genau diese Frage durch KI, Automatisierung und immer schnellere Delivery plötzlich noch viel relevanter?In dieser Episode sprechen wir mit Christoph, Geschäftsführer der E Commerce Agentur Pixolith, über Agenturgeschäft, Billable Hours, Value Based Pricing, Angebotsphasen, Vertrauen in Kundenprojekten und die Psychologie hinter Preisfindung. Wir schauen auf konkrete Beispiele aus dem E Commerce, auf B2B und B2C Shops, auf Shopware, Shopify, Updates, Migrationen und die Frage, wie sich Wert überhaupt greifbar machen lässt.Außerdem diskutieren wir, warum Scrum diese Abrechnungsfrage nicht löst, wo Goodhart's Law plötzlich sehr praktisch wird und weshalb KI nicht nur Code beschleunigt, sondern auch Beratung, Vertrieb und Delivery verändert.Wenn du verstehen willst, wie Agenturen kalkulieren, warum Stundensätze oft falsche Anreize setzen und wo Value Based Working wirklich funktioniert, bekommst du hier reichlich Stoff zum Mitdenken.Bonus mit Augenzwinkern: Selbst ein Klopapier Shop kann zum strategischen Lehrstück für Pricing, Vertrauen und Softwareprojekte werden.Unsere aktuellen Werbepartner findest du auf https://engineeringkiosk.dev/partnersDas schnelle Feedback zur Episode:

In this episode Raghunath and Kaustubha ask a question that cuts to the heart of any serious spiritual practice: is my practice actually changing me.  Goodhart's Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. The classic example: British colonial officials in India offered a bounty on cobra skins to reduce the cobra population, only to find that enterprising citizens began breeding cobras to collect the bounties. The measure designed to solve the problem made it worse. The Srimad Bhagavatam, an ancient Sanskrit text on Bhakti-yoga, offers a startling example through the story of the Brahmanas — learned priests who had checked every box, performed every ritual, and met every external standard yet remained spiritually shallow, while there wives, simple village women who had done none of those things, had quietly surpassed them in the spiritual depth. ******************************************************************** LOVE THE PODCAST? WE ARE COMMUNITY SUPPORTED AND WOULD LOVE FOR YOU TO JOIN! Go to https://www.wisdomofthesages.com WATCH ON YOUTUBE: https://youtube.com/@WisdomoftheSages LISTEN ON ITUNES: https://podcasts/apple.com/us/podcast/wisdom-of-the-sages/id1493055485 CONNECT ON FACEBOOK: https://facebook.com/wisdomofthesages108 *********************************************************************

In this episode Raghunath and Kaustubha ask a question that cuts to the heart of any serious spiritual practice: is my practice actually changing me.  Goodhart's Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. The classic example: British colonial officials in India offered a bounty on cobra skins to reduce the cobra population, only to find that enterprising citizens began breeding cobras to collect the bounties. The measure designed to solve the problem made it worse. The Srimad Bhagavatam, an ancient Sanskrit text on Bhakti-yoga, offers a startling example through the story of the Brahmanas — learned priests who had checked every box, performed every ritual, and met every external standard yet remained spiritually shallow, while there wives, simple village women who had done none of those things, had quietly surpassed them in the spiritual depth. ******************************************************************** LOVE THE PODCAST? WE ARE COMMUNITY SUPPORTED AND WOULD LOVE FOR YOU TO JOIN! Go to https://www.wisdomofthesages.com WATCH ON YOUTUBE: https://youtube.com/@WisdomoftheSages LISTEN ON ITUNES: https://podcasts/apple.com/us/podcast/wisdom-of-the-sages/id1493055485 CONNECT ON FACEBOOK: https://facebook.com/wisdomofthesages108 *********************************************************************

Today's episode is different. No headlines. No news. No product drops.This is a masterclass.I break down 12 frameworks and mental models that the people actually building AI use to think, argue, and make billion-dollar decisions — and I explain every single one of them in plain English so you can finally understand what's really happening underneath the press releases.Here's what you'll learn:The Fermi Paradox — why the universe is silent and what that means for artificial intelligence. The Great Filter — the theory that civilizations don't survive building something smarter than themselves. The Prisoner's Dilemma — why every AI company is racing even when they all know slowing down would be better for everyone. Nash Equilibrium — why the AI arms race is locked in place and what it takes to break it. Game Theory — zero-sum vs positive-sum thinking, repeated games, and mechanism design. Goodhart's Law — why the metrics you optimize will betray the goals you actually care about. The Paperclip Maximizer — the thought experiment that keeps AI safety researchers awake at night. The Principal-Agent Problem — why your AI might not share your values even when it follows your instructions perfectly. Moravec's Paradox — why AI beats a chess grandmaster but can't fold a towel, and what that means for your career. The Chinese Room — the deepest unanswered question in AI: does it actually understand anything? The Tragedy of the Commons — how training data is being consumed and polluted at the same time. The K-Shaped Economy — two economies are forming right now and only one of them goes up. The J-Curve — why AI adoption gets harder before it gets easier and why most people quit at the worst possible moment. The S-Curve — exactly where AI sits on the technology adoption timeline right now in March 2026. The Chasm — the gap between early adopters and the mainstream that kills most technologies before they break through.Every concept connects back to one idea: the gap between intention and outcome. Managing that gap is what separates the people who deploy AI responsibly from the ones who let it run wild and wonder why everything blew up.Whether you're a business owner deciding if AI is worth the investment, a real estate agent trying to understand why the market is splitting in two, or someone who just wants to make sense of what's actually happening in the world right now — this episode was built for you.I didn't learn these concepts in a classroom. I learned the principles behind them over 30 years — in a corrections yard in New Mexico, on patrol with LAPD, at eYoutube Channels:Conner with Honor - real estateHome Muscle - fat torchingFrom first responder to real estate expert, Connor with Honor brings honesty and integrity to your Santa Clarita home buying or selling journey. Subscribe to my YouTube channel for valuable tips, local market trends, and a glimpse into the Santa Clarita lifestyle.Dive into Real Estate with Connor with Honor:Santa Clarita's Trusted Realtor & Fitness EnthusiastReal Estate:Buying or selling in Santa Clarita? Connor with Honor, your local expert with over 2 decades of experience, guides you seamlessly through the process. Subscribe to his YouTube channel for insider market updates, expert advice, and a peek into the vibrant Santa Clarita lifestyle.Fitness:Ready to unlock your fitness potential? Join Connor's YouTube journey for inspiring workouts, healthy recipes, and motivational tips. Remember, a strong body fuels a strong mind and a successful life!Podcast:Dig deeper with Connor's podcast! Hear insightful interviews with industry experts, inspiring success stories, and targeted real estate advice specific to Santa Clarita.

Why do smart marketing teams keep optimizing for the wrong things?In Part 1 of this Sharp Cut series, we explored Goodhart's Law — when a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure.But the real problem doesn't start on the marketing dashboard.It starts two floors above it.In this episode of The Sharp Cut, Marc Binkley and Vassilis Douros trace the incentive problem all the way from the boardroom to the media buy, showing how the pressure to maximize shareholder value, hit revenue targets, and prove short-term ROI cascades through the organization — eventually shaping how marketing is measured.Drawing on insights from seven past Sleeping Barber guests, including Roger Martin, Peter Field, Avinash Kaushik, Dale Harrison, Herman Simon, Augustine Fou, and Koen Pauwels, this episode breaks down why marketing metrics often drift away from real business outcomes.We explore:Why shareholder value maximization may distort strategic decision-makingThe difference between revenue growth and real competitive growthHow efficiency metrics like ROI and ROAS can mislead organizationsWhy marketing dashboards are often 90% activity and only 10% outcomesWhy CPM may be one of the most dangerous metrics in media planningHow platform data quietly shapes the decisions marketers makeWhen incentives reward the wrong signals, even brilliant organizations can optimize themselves into decline.TakeawaysGoodheart's Law illustrates how metrics can become targets, leading to poor decision-making.Shareholder value maximization is a flawed approach that can harm long-term business health.Revenue growth does not equate to market growth; understanding this distinction is crucial.Short-term metrics can mislead organizations into making detrimental decisions.Effective marketing requires a balance between efficiency and effectiveness.Dashboards often reflect activity rather than meaningful outcomes, leading to misinterpretation of success.CPM is a dangerous metric that can create a false sense of accountability.Data reporting without context can lead to 'data puking' and poor decision-making.Organizations must evaluate whether their primary metrics truly reflect business health.Good measurement practices should focus on long-term outcomes rather than short-term gains.Chapters00:00 - Introduction to the Incentive Series01:00 - Understanding Goodheart's Law and Its Implications03:02 - The Shareholder Value Maximization Trap04:56 - Revenue vs. Growth: A Misunderstanding09:04 - The Dangers of Short-Term Metrics12:08 - The Role of Dashboards in Marketing Decisions14:59 - The Need for Better Measurement Practices

Alan Rozenshtein, research director at Lawfare, spoke with Cullen O'Keefe, research director at the Institute for Law & AI, and Kevin Frazier, AI Innovation and Law Fellow at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law and senior editor at Lawfare, about their paper, "Automated Compliance and the Regulation of AI" (and associated Lawfare article), which argues that AI systems can automate many regulatory compliance tasks, loosening the trade-off between safety and innovation in AI policy.The conversation covered the disproportionate burden of compliance costs on startups versus large firms; the limitations of compute thresholds as a proxy for targeting AI regulation; how AI can automate tasks like transparency reporting, model evaluations, and incident disclosure; the Goodhart's Law objection to automated compliance; the paper's proposal for "automatability triggers" that condition regulation on the availability of cheap compliance tools; analogies to sunrise clauses in other areas of law; incentive problems in developing compliance-automating AI; the speculative future of automated compliance meeting automated governance; and how co-authoring the paper shifted each author's views on the AI regulation debate.Find Scaling Laws on the Lawfare website, and subscribe to never miss an episode.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In 2004, Wells Fargo's internal audit flagged a problem: employees felt they couldn't hit sales targets without gaming the system.The scandal broke 12 years later.Two million fake accounts.Thousands fired.Billions in fines.No one set out to commit fraud.They optimized for the metric.In this Sharp Cut, we break down Goodhart's Law — when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure — and show how the same pattern is operating inside marketing departments right now.We examine:Why CTR has near-zero correlation with brand growth (Nielsen, LinkedIn, Tracksuit data)How short-term ROAS creates long-term decline (Binet & Field)Why agency compensation structures reward activity over effectivenessThe MQL trap in B2BThe “cheap CPM” illusion and the cost of dull mediaAnd then we offer a prescription:How to redesign your metrics so they can't be gamed.How to pair opposing indicators.How to measure mental vs physical availability.How to ensure your dashboard actually changes decisions.This is not a rant about bad marketers.It's a structural critique of broken incentive systems.Because marketing doesn't drift by accident.It drifts because incentives are misaligned.Episode 1 of a three part series.Key Takeaways:Incentives can lead to unintended consequences in marketing.Goodhart's Law highlights the dangers of misaligned metrics.Wells Fargo's scandal exemplifies the risks of poor incentive structures.Digital advertising metrics often fail to correlate with brand outcomes.Short-term ROAS focus can deplete future demand.Agency compensation models may incentivize spending over effectiveness.MQL culture can overwhelm sales with low-quality leads.Cheap impressions may not translate to real engagement.Marketers should audit metrics for potential gaming.Effective measurement requires aligning metrics with business goals.Chapters:00:00 - Introduction 02:47 - The Wells Fargo Scandal: A Case Study05:50 - Understanding Goodhart's Law09:00 - The Metrics Trap: Digital Advertising Insights12:01 - The Short-Term ROAS Trap14:54 - Agency Compensation and MQL Culture17:58 - The Importance of Metrics and Accountability20:59 - Recap and Final Thoughts

Alan Rozenshtein, research director at Lawfare, spoke with Cullen O'Keefe, research director at the Institute for Law & AI, and Kevin Frazier, AI Innovation and Law Fellow at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law and senior editor at Lawfare, about their paper, "Automated Compliance and the Regulation of AI" (and associated Lawfare article), which argues that AI systems can automate many regulatory compliance tasks, loosening the trade-off between safety and innovation in AI policy.The conversation covered the disproportionate burden of compliance costs on startups versus large firms; the limitations of compute thresholds as a proxy for targeting AI regulation; how AI can automate tasks like transparency reporting, model evaluations, and incident disclosure; the Goodhart's Law objection to automated compliance; the paper's proposal for "automatability triggers" that condition regulation on the availability of cheap compliance tools; analogies to sunrise clauses in other areas of law; incentive problems in developing compliance-automating AI; the speculative future of automated compliance meeting automated governance; and how co-authoring the paper shifted each author's views on the AI regulation debate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Britain is failing the Bus Stop Test – David Goodhart reveals why mass immigration and elite dominance are destroying Britain's high-trust society. Join the Community: https://andrewgoldheretics.com SPONSORS: Organise your life: https://akiflow.pro/Heretics  Earn up to 4 per cent on gold, paid in gold: https://www.monetary-metals.com/heretics/  Cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month at https://mintmobile.com/heretics  In this explosive Heretics interview, David Goodhart – author of The Road to Somewhere and creator of the Anywheres vs Somewheres framework – explains how rapid demographic change, declining English ethnicity, eroded solidarity, and over-dominance of mobile educated elites are fracturing Britain. From the famous "Bus Stop Test" failing in many neighbourhoods to the collapse of welfare willingness, family breakdown, fertility crisis, and the shift toward majority-minority towns, Goodhart delivers unfiltered insights on integration failures, cultural transformation, populism, and the urgent need for balance and stability. #MassImmigration #BusStopTest #DavidGoodhart Join the 30k heretics on my mailing list: https://andrewgoldheretics.com  Check out my new documentary channel: https://youtube.com/@andrewgoldinvestigates  Andrew on X: https://twitter.com/andrewgold_ok   Insta: https://www.instagram.com/andrewgold_ok Heretics YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@andrewgoldheretics Chapters: 00:00 David Goodhart's Background 04:30 Solidarity vs Diversity – The Original Essay 09:20 English Ethnicity Decline & Majority Interests 14:50 The Bus Stop Test & Failed Integration 20:00 Changing Public Norms & Way of Life 25:30 Argentina's Immigration Lesson 31:00 Universalism Errors & Group Identity 36:30 Asymmetrical Multiculturalism Exposed 41:30 Anywheres vs Somewheres – The Core Divide 47:00 Education, Populism & Backlash 52:30 De-industrialisation & Immigration Effects 58:00 Stability & Predictability for Ordinary People 1:03:00 Bradford Model vs Mixed Communities 1:08:30 Books Overview: Head Heart & The Dilemma 1:14:00 Fertility Collapse & Family Policy Solutions 1:21:30 A Heretic David admires Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Guest Devansh Mehta Panelists Eriol Fox | Victory Brown Show Notes In this episode of Sustain, host Eriol Fox and co-host Victory Brown are at Devconnect Conference in Buenos Aires with Devansh Mehta from the Ethereum Foundation, to unpack one of the hardest problems in open source: how to fund the public good infrastructure that everything else depends on fairly, ethically, and at scale. They dig into quadratic funding, “credit assignment,” dependency graphs, Goodhart's Law, and how AI can help, without taking over. Also, why open networks still struggle to compete with corporations and what new funding mechanisms like Deep Funding are trying to change. Hit download now to hear more! [00:00:22] Eriol introduces Devansh, and he tells us about the work he does at Ethereum Foundation. [00:01:32] He explains two core problems: Funding loop and Credit assignment. [00:03:57] He identifies two failure modes: Popularity contests and lobbying & favoritism and shares why he found quadratic funding very liberating. [00:05:48] Devansh uses Bitcoin as a simple model: miners get all the credit for a block and the new BTC is the funding loop. [00:06:51] He defines public goods as value created minus value captured and argues the real challenge is linking revenue centers to cost centers. [00:09:19] Devansh proposes a 3-step model for connecting revenue and OSS dependencies: Build an accurate dependency graph, weight the edges, capturing “how much value I get from you, and send money into one address and let it flow through the graph by weights. [00:11:28] Goodhart's law is explained, and Devansh warns metrics like stars/downloads break once tied directly to money and he gives some solutions to use non-deterministic AI and human judgement. [00:16:04] Victory wonders how we can make this more ethical. Devansh notes that experts have the biggest conflict of interest, and he introduces cryptographic ideas: Confusion and Diffusion. [00:18:27] Devansh analogizes funding mechanisms are like recommendation algorithms and critiques the current RFP/grant system common in non-Web3 open source. [00:21:01] Find out where you can follow Devansh on the internet and he shares the Ethereum Foundation believes in the “policy of subtraction” and highlights some key partners in deep funding: Seer, Pond, and Drips. Links podcast@sustainoss.org richard@sustainoss.org SustainOSS Discourse SustainOSS Mastodon SustainOSS Bluesky SustainOSS LinkedIn Open Collective-SustainOSS (Contribute) Richard Littauer Socials Eriol Fox X Victory Brown X Devansh Mehta X Deep Funding Deep Funding GG24 Web3 Tooling and Infra Round Agent Allocators Devconnect- 2025, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 17-22 November Ethereum Ethereum Foundation Ethereum Foundation Blog Goodhart's law Seer Pond Drips Credits Produced by Richard Littauer Edited by Paul M. Bahr at Peachtree Sound Show notes by DeAnn Bahr Peachtree Sound Logistical support by Tina Arboleda from Digital Savvies Special Guest: Devansh Mehta.

MOPs & MOEs is powered by TrainHeroic, the best coaching app on the planet. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Click here to get 14 days FREE and a consult with the coaches at TrainHeroic to help you get your coaching business rolling on TrainHeroic. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ MOPs & MOEs delivers our training through ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TrainHeroic and you can ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠get your first 7 days of training with us FREE by clicking here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠To continue the conversation, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠join our Discord!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ We have experts standing by to answer your questions.We were recently invited to give the keynote presentation for the 2026 Fort Benning Human Performance Symposium. In the process of putting our talk together, we solidified our "core fore" concepts that help us filter through everything going on in the military human performance space. This led us to our main argument, which is that we should aim for "data informed" but not "data driven" to avoid falling into some common traps.Several people who couldn't attend the symposium asked if there was a way to listen to the talk, so we thought we'd just publish it as a podcast episode. Key topics we cover include: Nazareth Syndrome, Goodhart's Law, Mcnamara's Fallacy, and Hammond's Corollary (yes it's named after Drew). From there we dive into the challenge of defining "lethality" and what data can and can't do to measure it.Special shout out to SGT Donovan Saulsberry whose incredible voice you'll hear when he introduces us. Apparently he's the unofficial (or maybe official?) voice of Fort Benning. Let us know whether we should hire him to record a new intro for our podcast...

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Ha-Seong Kim and the perils of slipping on ice, the contrasting retirement comments of Mookie Betts and Rich Hill, more on the Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette signings, Goodhart’s law and baseball stats, the late Wilbur Wood, and the latest trends in Hall of Fame voting. Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)” Audio outro: Sam Chess, “Effectively Wild Theme” Link to Kim story Link to MLBTR on Kim Link to Mateo signing Link to team SS projection Link to Cena/Mookie episode Link to MLB.com on Mookie Link to HUAL on Cena’s retirement Link to Mookie’s other stream Link to MLBTR on Hill Link to “Retire” meme Link to Hill on EW Link to team LF projection Link to team CF projection Link to Dombrowski comment Link to MLBTR on Jays offer Link to Weaver’s Dodgers stat Link to Clemens post Link to barrels definition Link to Andrews post Link to Goodhart’s law wiki Link to Wood obit Link to Wood’s IP lead Link to Sardell EW appearance Link to Sardell’s penultimate projections Link to Sardell’s final projections Link to Jay’s results preview Link to Jay on EW Link to BBWAA announcement Link to Jay on the results Link to Jay’s Jones profile Link to Jones battery report Link to Jay’s Beltrán profile Link to Felix leap stat Link to Pettitte PEDs story Link to Vizquel persuasion post Link to Sam’s ballot Link to Pollis on the results Link to MLBTR on Robert Sponsor Us on Patreon Give a Gift Subscription Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com Effectively Wild Subreddit Effectively Wild Wiki Apple Podcasts Feed Spotify Feed YouTube Playlist Facebook Group Bluesky Account Twitter Account Get Our Merch! var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {}); Source

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with Intercom co-founder Des Traynor to examine customer support through the lens of Conway's Law, Goodhart's Law, and several decades of accumulated organizational scar tissue. They discuss how AI agents are democratizing white-glove service, why modern LLMs have retrained user expectations around “chatbots” very quickly, and the surprisingly liberating effect of talking to something that will never judge you for missing a loan payment.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/des-traynor/–Sponsor: MongoDB Tired of database limitations and architectures that break when you scale? MongoDB is the database built for developers, by developers: ACID compliant, Enterprise-ready, and fluent in AI. Start building faster at mongodb.com/build–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:29) Intercom and its evolution(00:51) Challenges in customer service systems(02:54) Scaling customer support in startups(04:53) Organizational inefficiencies and customer experience(06:53) Metrics and their impact on customer support(12:40) Human capital issues in customer support(15:53) AI's role in customer support(17:01) Future of customer support roles(20:09) Sponsor: MongoDB(20:53) Future of customer support roles (continued)(26:19) AI and customer interaction(26:55) The myth of artisanal customer support(27:45) Fin Guidance: Evolution and user behavior(29:10) Fin's impact on customer support efficiency(33:30) Expanding Fin's capabilities beyond support(42:50) AI in government and other sectors(49:20) The future of AI connectivity and integration

This is a Vintage Selection from 2005Ever wonder how great restaurant wine lists actually come together — and why some completely miss the mark?The Guys tell stories of their “glamorous” lives being restaurateurs that (surprisingly) involves more plumbers than they ever expected. In this episode, The Restaurant Guys are joined by Chris Goodhart, wine buyer for Keith McNally's restaurants in New York City, to talk about what really goes into building a wine program that serves both adventurous drinkers and everyday guests.Chris shares stories from the floor, how he balances budgets with taste, and the quiet pressures behind the scenes when a bottle selection can make or break a dining experience.The guys also dig into a fascinating moment in time: the impending smoking ban, how it changed drinking culture, and what restaurants had to rethink overnight — from bar traffic to wine styles that suddenly tasted different without smoke in the room.It's thoughtful, practical, and full of the kind of perspective you only get from people who live inside restaurants.Timestamps00:00 — Setting the stage: running restaurants in 200509:18 — What's it like to run a wine program15:00 — Building wine lists for various venues20:00 — Chris' opinion of The Michelin Guide in NYC26:20 — How to take the pretentiousness out of the wine experience32:40 — Corks and Screw Tops 35:27 — How Smoking Bans Change the Way People DrinkBioChris Goodhart is a veteran New York City wine buyer, working for Keith McNally's restaurant group, known for building thoughtful, guest-friendly wine programs that balance discovery, value, and hospitality.Info Keith McNally's Balthazar, etc.https://balthazarny.com/Become a Restaurant Guys' Regular!https://www.buzzsprout.com/2401692/subscribeMagyar Bankhttps://www.magbank.com/Withum Accounting https://www.withum.com/restaurantOur Places Stage Left Steakhttps://www.stageleft.com/ Catherine Lombardi Restauranthttps://www.catherinelombardi.com/ Stage Left Wineshophttps://www.stageleftwineshop.com/ To hear more about food, wine and the finer things in life:https://www.instagram.com/restaurantguyspodcast/https://www.facebook.com/restaurantguysReach Out to The Guys!TheGuys@restaurantguyspodcast.com**Become a Restaurant Guys Regular and get two bonus episodes per month, bonus content and Regulars Only events.**Click Below!https://www.buzzsprout.com/2401692/subscribe

New @greenpillnet pod out today!

Michigan Weather and Women: Part 4 Finding real love, at last. Based on a post by CleverGenericName, in 4 parts. Listen to the Podcast at Connected. Driving home the next day felt like waking up from some kind of dream until I pulled into our driveway and Munchkin came running out to greet me. As I was getting out to reassure him that he hadn't been abandoned, the reality of my life settled right back in. I went inside, and Lane and Mary grunted their hellos without looking up. Ah, home. I texted Erin that I made it back safely, and she replied almost immediately saying what a great night she had, and how much she missed me already. It was going to be a long three weeks until she rotated back to the hospital in Petoskey. Luckily, life was as busy as always, and time flew by. For the first time since I was a child, I could honestly say that I was happy. My happiness lasted until the day before Erin was scheduled to return. I got my first inkling that something might be wrong when I called to see if Wilma wanted me to pick up any groceries for her from town. She didn't answer, which was strange, and the call went to voicemail. Even if she was napping, she was a very light sleeper and would normally answer by the third ring. I had a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach, so I went straight to Wilma's to make sure she was alright. Everything seemed fine when I pulled into the yard, but there was no answer when I knocked on her door. I tried again, but there was nothing but an eerie silence. Fearing the worst, I grabbed the spare key from its hiding place and went inside. I called Wilma's name and, hearing no reply, went quickly through the house trying to find her. When I got to her bedroom, I could hear a low moaning sound from the attached washroom. I ran in and found Wilma collapsed by the bathtub. She had slipped and hit her head, injuring her hip and arm in the process. She didn't have her phone with her when she fell and had been unable to move, so who knows how long she had been lying there. I called 911 for an ambulance and then called Erin and suggested that she meet us at the hospital. It took forever for the paramedics to arrive, and longer still to get Wilma loaded into the ambulance. By the time I got to the hospital, she was already being triaged by their emergency team. I took a few minutes while I waited for an update on Wilma's condition to call the rest of the family and give them the news. Alison came directly to the hospital after class, and Sharon brought Mary and Lane as soon as they got home from school. Erin arrived a few hours later and broke down when she saw me. Finally, just after nine, the doctors gave Erin an update. Wilma was in rough shape; she was badly dehydrated and had a moderate concussion, a fractured wrist, and a bone bruise on her hip. It would take her weeks to recover in the hospital. The good news was that she would make a recovery, given enough time and support. Erin and Mary decided to stay with Wilma in the hospital while Sharon dropped Alison at her dorm and drove Lane back to the house. By midnight, Mary had nodded off in a chair in the corner of Wilma's room, while I waited outside with Erin. "You should go home, Davis. There's nothing else you can do tonight. Thank God, you found her; I am not sure what I would have done if you hadn't. I already lost Grampy; I am not ready to lose Gran as well. They are all I have." I wrapped her in my arms and pulled her close. "You have me, now, too. And the girls. And you know Lane would do anything for you, you just need to ask. I was serious about what I said in Grand Rapids, Erin. I love you." Erin pulled me closer but didn't reply. The following week was a rollercoaster of emotions. Wilma was improving far quicker than the doctors had anticipated, but she would still be in rehab for at least another two weeks. It was impossible to hide Wilma's accident from the rest of the family, and they descended on the hospital like vultures; or, more accurately, their lawyers descended on the hospital while, for the most part, they stayed far away where it was warm. The one exception was Erin's stepfather, who flew in the next day. "For Christ's sake, Erin. Haven't you done enough harm as it is? Do you want your Gran to die alone on the floor of that dingy old shack of hers? It's time for her to move into a care facility that can look after her. Be reasonable!" When he failed to persuade Erin to act on his behalf, his attorneys requested an emergency court order, alleging that Wilma lacked the capacity to make her own medical decisions, that Erin was not acting in her best interests, and that one of Wilma's children should be appointed as her legal guardian. Wilma was furious when she learned of his actions, but there was little she could do to stop him until she was discharged from the hospital. Both sides knew that her doctor's recommendation would hold a lot of weight with the judge, and it was not good news for Wilma when it came. "If Mrs. Anderson is to return home, she will require around-the-clock care and company. If such care can't be arranged, then I recommend that she be placed in a long-term assisted-living facility that can treat any lingering effects from her fall, and from her late-stage cancer." Erin took the news like a physical blow, and she staggered backward to a chair. We didn't have the resources for 24-hour nursing, and it would be impossible to arrange it with such short notice even if we did. "I'm sorry, Davis. I need to be alone for a while to think." She left without looking back or saying goodbye to Wilma, and I just let her go. I wanted to ease her pain, but I knew that there was nothing I could do. She had lost, and her family had won. I was despondent as I made my way towards the exit, so much so that I nearly ran into Alison who was finishing up her shift at the hospital. "You look terrible, Brother, what happened? Is Wilma alright?" I explained to her about the doctor's recommendation and Erin's reaction. "No one has had the heart to tell Wilma, yet. She's recovered from the fall, but this news is going to kill her." Alison looked at me for a minute, before her mouth quirked upwards in a smile. "I'll do it." "What do you mean? "I'll do it. I'll look after Wilma. I am wrapping up my clinical practicum tomorrow, and I was planning on working this summer. I will look after Wilma instead. Mary can move in with us as well, and I can teach her what she needs to know to care for her when I'm not there. Once her school year is done in June, she and I can spell each other off, and I can still pick up some shifts here and there." It was an amazing offer, but I couldn't let her do it. "Alison, I can't ask you to give up your job for the summer. You need that money for your living expenses at school." "You're not asking; I'm offering. And since you've paid for my tuition so far, I am debt-free and can take out a loan to cover my last term." "I didn't cover the tuition, it was your;" "Davis. Really? Our mother, who never met a five-dollar bill she couldn't snort or inject, left me a college fund? Please. I am not an idiot. I love you, Big Brother, and I love what you have done for me and the others, but it's my time to step up now as well. Let me do this." I felt a heaviness lift from my chest as I hugged Alison and lifted her off her feet. I tried to reach Erin to let her know about Alison's offer, but I drove to her apartment, and she wasn't there, and she must have turned her phone off. I figured she must have gone to Wilma's, so I headed that way. I pulled in just as the sun was setting and found her SUV parked in the laneway, crosshatched by the lengthening shadows of the trees. I parked and saw a lone figure at the end of the dock, still wearing her scrubs. I could see whitecaps on the waves as they smashed into the dock, and I knew she must be freezing, so I grabbed my jacket out of the back of the truck and went to join her. The footing was treacherous, with patches of ice hidden by the gloom and spray, but I made my way carefully to Erin and wrapped my jacket around her shoulders. She closed her eyes and leaned back against me. "Am I doing the right thing, Davis? Gran could have died. She would have died if not for you. Can we risk that happening again? Am I just holding on to the past?" When she was finished, Erin lapsed into silence. "You are doing what Wilma asked you to do. I know your stepfather says that she isn't mentally competent, but I tell you, if she's not mentally competent then none of us are." "But it doesn't make a difference anymore. You heard what the doctor said, and I can't go against her recommendation." "You don't have to, Erin. Alison has offered to move in with Wilma to look after her, and she will teach Mary to look after her as well. Between the two of them, Wilma can stay in the house until the fall, at least, and then we can see." Erin turned towards me in her excitement but lost her footing on the slippery dock and fell backward into the water, pulling me with her. Now, in the summer, that kind of accident might be cause for some laughter and an embarrassing story around the dinner table. In late April, however, spending any time in the frigid waters of Lake Michigan could rapidly prove fatal. The shock from the cold when Erin hit the water caused her to gasp involuntarily, and she took in a mouthful. I had a half-second longer to prepare myself and managed to keep my mouth closed as I submerged, but I could immediately feel the cold in my extremities. The ladder that would normally have been at the end of the dock had been taken out for the winter, so we had no choice but to make for shore. Time compressed as I struggled to pull us through the water while Erin coughed and vomited. Finally, we dragged ourselves onto the shore, wet and shivering. I felt clumsy and weak from the cold, and my clothes felt like they weighed a hundred pounds, but I wrapped my arm around Erin's waist, and we started stumbling toward the house. By the time we got there, we were both shivering uncontrollably and my hands were numb from the cold. I knew we needed to get warm, but it was like my brain was in a fog and I couldn't get my limbs to move the way they were supposed to. So, I did the first thing that came to mind, and started feeding paper and kindling into the fireplace, while Erin went to the linen closet and grabbed a stack of towels. She stripped off her wet scrubs while I got the fire started, and then she helped me get undressed as well. When I felt a little feeling return to my fingers, I fed a larger log onto the fire and then went and got a large comforter which I wrapped around us as we shivered in front of the fire. Eventually, our shivering subsided as our bodies warmed up, and Erin laid her head back against my chest. "I'm not ready for her to go. I'm not ready to be all alone again." "You're not alone anymore; not unless you want to be. I love you, Erin." I felt her relax back against me. "I love you too, Davis, and I'm sorry." "For what?" "For pulling you into the lake like a dumbass; fuck, that was cold." Chapter 6. Wilma's family insisted on taking their emergency petition to court, over Wilma's continued objections, but once the judge learned that Alison, a trained nurse, was going to be staying with her, their decision was an easy one. And let me tell you, Wilma's mind was still sharp as ever, and she made it clear both to her doctors and, eventually, to her family and the judge, that she wanted to go home. Erin's stepfather was beside himself with anger after they lost the hearing. "Why do you insist on delaying the inevitable like this? Wilma is dying. We know it, she knows it, the doctors know it. You're the only one who won't accept it. She would get better care in a facility with real nurses here in town, rather than relying on a student, a little girl, and whatever time you can give her at home. The next time she has a crisis maybe we won't get so lucky, and it will be on your head." Outwardly, Erin looked as smooth and unbothered as glass as her stepfather screamed at her, but her hand was squeezing mine so hard that I thought she might break a bone. Luckily, before I could say anything to make matters worse, Wilma intervened. "What is it that makes you so damn sure that you know what's best for everyone else? You're right, I'm dying. There is nothing that anyone can do about that. If I happen to fall again and speed the process along, so be it. But don't you dare pretend that you care one iota about my health or happiness, or your stepdaughter's happiness for that matter. The only thing you care about is getting your wife's inheritance faster. Is your business doing so badly that you can't wait until I die? It seemed like she had scored a direct hit, as his face turned solid red as he started to stammer out a response, but she dismissed him before he could even begin. "Now go away and leave us in peace. You will be back here for my funeral soon enough, and no one wants you hovering around, hoping to speed it up." A week later, Wilma was released from the hospital, and we brought her back home. Alison moved in right away, along with Munchkin, and Mary soon followed. On most days, James would come by to pick Mary up for school and then drop her back afterward. Alison stayed with Wilma during the day, and Mary covered most of the evenings. Erin came by to help whenever she could, and I did my best to keep them stocked with supplies. It wasn't perfect, but it worked and, more importantly, it made Wilma happy. She didn't talk much about her cancer, but it was clear that it was getting worse. Mary noticed that she was eating less and resting more and that she had begun to take her pain pills in the morning as well as in the evening before she went to bed. Wilma was still adamant that she wanted to stay in her home, however, and continued to teach Mary all she could about art and life. In early June, I had stopped by to visit Wilma and the girls late in the afternoon and I was still there when James dropped Mary off from school. He escorted her into the house but then stood awkwardly in the entranceway rather than leaving. "Mr. Crawford, could we talk for a minute, if you have the time?" I shook my head in amusement. No matter how many times I told him to just call me Davis, Mr. Crawford, I remained. "Sure, I was just finishing up with Wilma," I replied as I gave Wilma a gentle hug. She felt more like a bird at that point than a person, just skin hanging on fragile bones held together by her indomitable will. James looked worried as we went outside. "This may not be any of my business, but yesterday, when I got home from school, Calum and my dad were on a conference call with some officials from the county and Wilma's son and one of her granddaughters, the lawyer. I didn't mean to eavesdrop or anything, but they were on speaker, and it was loud enough that I could hear them in the kitchen. "They were saying that when Wilma dies, her estate is being divided up equally amongst all of the children and grandchildren, but there is a part of the will that states that the land by the lake can't be sold or developed. From the sounds of it, however, once Wilma is gone, the county is going to seize that land, using eminent domain, to create a public boat launch, since Wilma's dock is the only four-season dock for at least ten miles in either direction. They will fix it up and then sell the rest of the land to the McDougals for development. "So, Wilma's family will get their money when the county forces the sale, and the McDougals will get their land. The only person left who might make a fuss would be Erin, but they figure she will fall in line once she sees the big fat check from the county." Listening to James' story made my blood boil. I hated the kinds of rich pricks who used their money and their purchased politicians to run roughshod over the rest of us. I just wasn't sure if there was anything that we could do to stop them. I thanked James for the heads up and went to speak with Wilma once he left. I expected Wilma to be as filled with rage at her family's treachery as I was, but she seemed remarkably calm about the whole thing. "Thank you for sharing this with me and thank James for his candor. He must have been deeply conflicted between his loyalty to his family, and his desire to do the right thing. Now, as to what we are going to do about this, we are going to do nothing. I don't want you to mention this to Erin or Mary, it will just worry them and make them upset. And you have more important things to do than to rage against a bunch of duplicitous assholes. Leave this one with me. "Now, why don't you go outside, take that shirt off, and start chopping some wood or something equally manly? Erin will be here soon, and you know how she likes to see you when you have worked up a sweat." I didn't know exactly what Wilma had planned, but for the next few days, she spent a lot of time on the phone. Towards the end of June, a very well-dressed older man in a tailored suit was leaving her house just as I was pulling in. It was clear that he had been there before since Munchkin ignored him and came over to give me an enthusiastic greeting instead. The man gave me a friendly smile as he put his briefcase in his top-of-the-line Lexus SUV before walking over to introduce himself. "Brantford Sage," he said holding out his hand. "You must be Mr. Crawford. Wilma has told me a lot about you. With everything she said, I was kind of expecting you to be seven feet tall and wearing a cape." I laughed at the image. "It's nice that she thinks so highly of me, but she gives me too much credit. And please call me Davis." "Well, Davis, and please call me Brantford, I have known Wilma for more years than you have been alive, and I have never heard her talk about anyone the way that she talks about you, except for Phillip, of course. And we all know how she felt about Phillip." I knew that it was none of my business why Mr. Sage was visiting Wilma, but my desire to protect her overrode any hesitation on my part about speaking out. "I am sorry if it's rude of me to ask, Mr. Sage, but what is your business here with Wilma? As you may know, her own family, along with a local family of some prominence, have been waging a campaign to get Wilma to sell this land. You are not here on their behalf, are you?" "I can assure you, Davis, that I am only here as a favor to Wilma. I normally split my time between our offices in Detroit, New York, and London, but when Wilma calls, I make it a priority to answer. I am sorry that I can't say more about my business here, attorney-client privilege, but you can ask her yourself if you would like." "It's all good. Wilma is still sharp as a tack, and even if she has lost a step or two, she is still twice as smart and four times as wise as I will ever be." "Well, I should be going. But sadly, I am sure I will see you again, soon enough." By the end of the summer, it was clear that Wilma's adventures were almost done. When she worked with Mary, she would often fall asleep in the comfortable chair in the corner. She had never had a large appetite, but recently, it had dwindled almost to nothing. Erin was very worried and suggested that it was time to move her Gran into hospice, but Wilma wouldn't hear of it. "This house has been my home for more than 60 years; I am not going to leave it now. It would miss me too much, and I can't have my home pining away over me. There is nothing more depressing than a sad home." Even Munchkin, the dog with boundless energy, became more subdued and often sat a quiet watch over Wilma while she slept. Finally, on the last Sunday of August, I got the call I had been dreading. I could hear Mary's voice on the other end of the line, holding back tears. "Gran says she's too tired and it's time to stop fighting. She told me to call you and Erin, and ask you to come;" I could hear the sobs building in her as she spoke, "to say goodbye." "Is James there with you, Mary?" "I called him. He's on his way." "I will call Erin and then go and pick her up. She won't be in any condition to drive." I figured the odds of there being a speed trap on the highway to Petoskey before 7 AM on a Sunday were slim to none, so I made it to Erin's apartment in record time. She must have been watching for me out of her window, as she threw herself into my arms before I was fully out of the truck. "I am so sorry, Honey," was all I could say, and I just held her in silence until the waves of grief that wracked her body had subsided. "We should get going," I said, not knowing what else to say. Maybe I should have told her that "Everything would be alright," but I suspected that it would be a while before that was true. But that was okay. People grieve in their own time. Erin held my hand tightly as we started the drive to Wilma's. "Why don't you tell me some of your favorite memories with your Gran and Grampy?" Erin remained silent for a few minutes, but once she started talking, the floodgates opened wide. She told me about the first time that her parents dropped her at the airport when she was only seven. How scared she was of these strange older people she didn't know. Phillip had seen her fear, and rather than trying to comfort her; how do you comfort a child whose parents have abandoned them; he had taken her for a long walk down by the lake. She remembered the sound of the wind blowing off the lake, as Phillip told her stories about their past. She remembered the summers she spent with Gran and Grampy as a teen. By that point, she had grown into a beautiful young woman, and her parents wanted to show her off to their important friends in Europe and places further afield. But she had already chosen to spend her time with the people that she loved. She spoke of coming to see them when she was in college. Of the awful year that Phillip got sick, and her grief at his passing. She said that her parents came to Good Hart for the funeral, but it felt like she and Gran were the only people to truly grieve his loss. She fell silent as we pulled into Wilma's laneway. "Go and see your Gran. Let me know what you need, Honey. I am here for you." Despite her grief, Erin looked at me as she took my hand. "What about you? What do you need, Davis? You love her too." "People show their love in different ways. I never really got the chance to give or receive love as a child, at least not in the way that most of us think of it. But being with you has made me realize something important about myself; I take care of the people I love. So, let me take care of you, Mary, and Wilma, one final time." By that point, Mary and Munchkin had come outside. Mary's eyes were red, and you could see the tracks that her tears had left on her cheeks. I got out of the truck and just held her for a minute. Erin came up behind me and enveloped her as well. Munchkin, mourning in his own way, stood watch for us, keeping us safe as we grieved. "Mary, you don't have to be here for the end if it's too hard. You can say goodbye, then take the truck and go and meet James. We can let you know when it's over." She just shook her head. "Where is she?" Mary led us into the living room. The wisp that remained of Wilma was in the comfortable chair by the fire. She had been a very small woman when we met less than a year before, but now she looked almost ethereal. Like the wind could slip right through her collecting her stories as it passed. She beckoned me over with one of her curled hands. "Davis, I am glad that you're here. I know I am a greedy old biddy, but I have three favors to ask, and I don't have a lot of time left to do the asking." "Of course, Wilma. You know I would do anything for you and Erin." She closed her eyes for a moment to collect her thoughts. "The first favor is that I need some time alone with my girls. I am sure James will be here in a minute; he is a good boy, don't hold those assholes in his family against him. He loves our Mary. Go outside, and when he arrives, I want you to go down to the lake and set up the five Adirondack chairs, so they are all together and facing out over the water. Then come back up to me." "Of course, Wilma." I went outside and sat on the front steps, scratching Munchkin's ears as I waited. James pulled up less than ten minutes later and I explained what had happened, and Wilma's request. When we were finished at the lake, we walked back up to the house, with Munchkin following quietly on our heels. We let ourselves in and saw Wilma, Erin, and Mary pulled together in an embrace. I was hesitant to interrupt, but Wilma saw us and called us over. "There's your big, strong men. Girls, could you get some of the outdoor blankets for James to carry down to the lake for us? And Davis, my second favor is for you to carry me down to the lake one last time. Would the rest of you give us a few minutes before you follow?" I picked Wilma up from the chair and wrapped her in my arms. She felt almost weightless, but I saw hints of her mischievous smile as we started walking. "You know, the last time a man carried me like this, the journey ended very differently." I couldn't help but smile, even at the end Wilma was still quick with the teasing and innuendo. "I bet you wish it was that other man carrying you now," I joked in return, but Wilma just rested her head against my chest. "No. No, I don't, Davis. I will see that other man soon enough. I am well content to be here with you. I am so proud of you. You are such a good and faithful man. It is a lot to ask of you, but for my third favor, will you look after my girls when I am gone?" By that point, we had reached the shore, and I set Wilma down in the middle chair of the five. "You don't need to ask, Wilma. Of course, I will look after them. Because you asked it of me, and because I love them just like you do." Wilma smiled and reached out to take my hand while she pressed three small objects into my palm. I looked down and saw that she had removed her engagement and wedding rings and given them to me. They were joined by an almost identical wedding band that must have belonged to Phillip before he passed. "You will know when the time is right for these. I would have liked to have been there to see it, though. Through these rings, maybe Phillip and I can continue to be a small part of your love for each other, even once we're gone." James and the girls had started down the path to the lake and would reach us in a minute. Before they arrived, Wilma gave me a final serious look. "All hell is going to break loose when they read my will after the funeral. Be there for Erin, please. The mistakes I made with my children are all my fault, but Erin will be left to bear that weight for a little while longer once I'm gone. It would mean a lot to a dying woman to know that she won't have to carry that weight alone." "I'll share that weight with her, for as long as she needs. For as long as she will let me." Wilma patted my hand. "That's good. I love you, Davis, but I think it's time." Mary and Erin arrived with James, and they made sure that Wilma was bundled in warm blankets as she looked out over the lake. Mary and Erin sat on either side of her and held her hands, while James and I sat at the ends. Munchkin settled against Wilma's feet, to keep them warm. After a while, Wilma started talking. She told stories about her life with Phillip; how they met, when they first came to this place, building a home, and raising their family. She spoke of their success as artists, and their failures as parents. She spoke of her regrets but also about her deep love for Erin and Mary, and how much she appreciated what they had done for her. She paused for a moment as the wind began to pick up, but we heard her last words before the wind carried the rest away. "You are all artists, and you are all worthy of love." She fell silent, and we sat for a long while listening to the wind off the lake. Epilogue. As always, Wilma was right. The reading of her will did indeed set off a firestorm, but she had made sure that we were ready for it. Do you remember Mr. Sage, that man in the suit who came to visit Wilma not too long before she passed? It turns out that he wasn't just an old friend, he was also a named partner at the largest law firm in the state and one of the most powerful firms in the country. It seems that Phillip didn't just paint portraits for the richest family in the state (you would recognize their name from the hospitals, museums, and other cultural institutions where it is featured prominently), but he also became a close family friend. You would never have known it, though, since Phillip refused to even acknowledge their friendship in public so that he didn't inadvertently trade on their name. Mr. Sage was also a good friend of that family and, over the years, became close with Wilma and Phillip, as well. After James told Wilma his story, she called those old family friends and, for the first time in their long friendship, asked for their help. She would never have done so for her own benefit, but she couldn't bear to think that Phillip's legacy would be lost because of the greed and treachery of his children. Within a day, Mr. Sage was working on a solution to Wilma's problem, and everything was signed and sealed well before Wilma passed on. The day of the reading of the will would have been comic if it hadn't also been so tragic. In the weeks after Wilma's death, her remaining children and grandchildren had gathered to express their deep sadness at her passing. Many black outfits were worn, and many sad faces were made. Not surprisingly, the entire McDougal family also showed up both to the funeral and to the smaller gathering at Wilma's house afterward. James stood with Mary, his arm around her shoulder, both to comfort her and to protect her from his own family, as best he could. The rest of the McDougal clan stood with Wilma's family and made sure to avail themselves of the free wine and hors d'oeuvres. As per her wishes, Wilma was cremated, and her ashes were scattered from the deck behind her house so that the wind could carry them towards the lake. Again, as per her wishes, the will was read immediately thereafter. The first surprise of the day came when Mr. Sage, who everyone thought was there merely to express his condolences at Wilma's passing, informed the family lawyers that the will in their possession had been revoked earlier that year. Both Wilma's family and their lawyers began to protest until the man formally introduced himself as a named partner at Sage, Bentley, and Carstairs, and as the new executor of Wilma's estate. The second surprise was the size and extent of that estate. The property by the lake was considerably larger than anyone had known and included a number of additional houses and cottages that Wilma and Phillip had acquired over the years. Unlike the previous will, however, that had left an equal share of the land to each of Wilma's descendants, the new one protected the entire property, in perpetuity, as part of a land trust that was established for the benefit and use of artists, local residents and even the Fudgies, when summer came to the lower peninsula. As part of the land trust, the dock was to be extended and reinforced and a public boat landing and park were to be built and maintained on the land, again, in perpetuity. Erin and I were named as trustees of the land trust, along with Mr. Sage and Mary, when she came of age. Given Michigan's strict laws around the use of eminent domain for private gain, there was no chance that the McDougals and the county would be able to move forward with their plans to seize the land. The third and final surprise was that Wilma and Phillip had done much better with the sale of their art and with their investments over the years than anyone had thought or expected. In addition to the property that was now in the trust, they had amassed a fortune in the low eight figures. Most of that money was left to manage the land trust, but a not inconsiderable amount was set aside to fund the college education of my brother and sisters and to pay off Erin's considerable student debt from medical school. The will also stipulated that the estate would pay for any costs that Wilma's family had incurred to attend the funeral (with receipts, of course.) Wilma's paintings were left to the public gallery in Grand Rapids and galleries further afield, with a few notable exceptions. Mary was given three paintings of her choice from the collection, that weren't otherwise named in the will. After much thought and consideration, she chose both the first and last works that Wilma had painted, both of which had been hanging in the living room, along with a small study of the house that Wilma kept in her bedroom beside a picture of Phillip and her on their wedding day. Erin was given Phillip's portrait of her as a young woman, and that portrait still hangs above our mantelpiece alongside his portrait of Wilma as a young woman, which she left to me. The only time they left our mantelpiece was when they were featured in a retrospective exhibit of their work at a museum in New York, but the house felt strangely empty when they were gone. Erin's family was furious at the changes in the new will. They threatened to fight it with every resource at their disposal. They tried every dirty trick they could think of, questioning Wilma's mental capacity in the months before her death, fighting the legality of the land trust, and trying to impugn our characters implying that we were gold diggers who wormed our way into Wilma's life to steal the family inheritance. In the end, though, the family's lawyers were no match for Brantford and his firm. When none of their ploys worked, Erin's family and the McDougals turned on each other, and the ensuing lawsuits are still ongoing to this day. I would love to say that that was the end of the McDougals, or that Erin's family came around in the end. Unfortunately, they are still just as terrible as ever. But at least their arrogance and corruption are now far enough away that we can safely ignore them. On a similar note, my mother is still absent from our lives. I don't honestly know if she is even still alive, although I assume that someone would have tried to find her next of kin if she had died. Sometimes, I am charitable and hope that she managed to face her demons and turn what's left of her life around. But most of the time, I am just glad that she is no longer able to hurt the people I love. After things settled down, Alison finished her schooling and became a nurse practitioner, as she had always dreamed of. In her last year of study, while she was doing a clinical practicum at a hospital in Detroit, she met a lovely internist who fell madly in love with her. Luckily for him, his feelings were reciprocated, and they are now married and living in Grand Rapids. They split their holidays between our family and her husband's family in Detroit, and they stay with us for a few weeks each summer. Their son is as thick as thieves with our daughter, and their imagination carries them through endless adventures together. Sharon was successful in her ambition to leave the peninsula and see more of the world. She finished her undergraduate degree in creative writing in Chicago before setting out to see the world, and she is still out there wandering. But she sends us lots of pictures when she gets the chance, and recently, Erin noticed that many of her pictures have the same very attractive woman smiling in the background. I think it was probably a coincidence, but Erin thinks otherwise. I sure hope Erin's right. There is nothing I want more than for my family to find love and happiness. When the spirit moves her to come home to us (with or without her friend), she will be very welcome. Mary spent months grieving her loss, but rather than turning inward, she channeled her emotions into a triptych of paintings that firmly established her as an upcoming talent in the world of art. She lived with us for several years until James proposed, at which point they moved into one of the cottages owned by the trust. Unfortunately, James' family found out that he told Wilma about their plans, and they disowned him. He had a few tough years, but Mary helped him through, and when he turned eighteen, I took him on as an apprentice. He now runs one of my crews. I used to worry that he loved Mary more than she loved him and that the imbalance would lead to heartache. My worries were put to rest when she painted her first portrait. James was her subject, and I have never seen a painting more suffused with love and desire. A few years later, a collector offered her an eye-watering amount of money for it, but she politely declined. As for Lane, well who knows what he will do with his life, but he is carrying a 4.0 GPA, and the world is his oyster. He was sure impressed by the lawyers who rained hellfire down on the McDougals, though, so I suspect that he might be leaning that way in the future. He is also building quite a following as a DJ, combining classics from the 40's and 50's with new beats. He recently started dating a new girl, and she is a real sweetheart. We haven't told her about the day that he met Erin for the first time; yet. But trust me, that time will come. But until it does, Lane is more than happy to keep up with his chores and help out around the house. But what he loves more than anything is to carry his rod out to the end of the dock and fish, while the wind off the lake plays through his hair. And then there is Erin and me. I have to say that things have worked out pretty well for us, in the end. It took less than a year for me to make use of Wilma's last gifts, and Erin and I were married the next summer in the new park down by the dock. Wilma left her house and a few acres of land to Erin, separate from the land trust, and we spent several years fixing it up and expanding it so that my brother and sisters know that there is always a place for them if they need it; for a day, a week, or a lifetime. I am still not the best at taking orders or following instructions; but gentle requests from the woman that I love, sealed with a kiss on my cheek? It turns out that I am more than fine with those. And I am still not always sure what a beautiful doctor sees in a plumber like me. But rather than let my insecurity get the better of me, I have learned to accept my good fortune with a smile. One tradition that we've adopted as our own is that we make time to dance together every Friday night. If we have guests, or family who are home, they know that they will be joining us as well; Wilma's 'no wallflowers' rule is still in full effect. Now that she is old enough, I am teaching our daughter to dance, and her favorite thing in the world is to twirl around the living room in her mommy and daddy's arms. Some nights, when it's just the three of us and our daughter has gone to bed, we let the soft crackle of Wilma's old 45s take us back. We dance together with the lights down low, the music threading through the quiet night like a whisper from the past. And when the music fades, we hold each other close and listen to the voices of those we have loved, as they linger in the wind off the lake. Based on a post by CleverGenericName, in 4 parts, for Literotica.

Michigan Weather and Women: Part 1 Love, bastards, and what we leave behind. Based on a post by CleverGenericName, in 4 parts. Listen to the Podcast at Connected. The Plumber, The Painter, and the Wind off the Lake Prologue I have never been much for following instructions or doing what I'm told. In eighth grade, we were assigned to make a volcano in science class. I figured that if the eruption looked good with a couple of tablespoons of baking soda, then it would look even better with the whole container! And what better place for a natural disaster than the teacher's desk at the front of the class. I was right; the whole container of baking soda produced an impressive explosion. What I didn't count on, however, was it producing a week-long suspension from school and a beating from my mother. In high school, we had to take an art class to graduate. Our teacher loved still life drawing and would ramble endlessly about how it revealed the beauty that is in the everyday objects that surround us. I guess he wanted us to reveal the beauty in the bowl of fruit that he had put in the middle of the classroom, but the most beautiful things that I could see were Brittany Johnson's D-cups which filled out her sweater gloriously. At the end of the class, there were 29 drawings of a bowl of fruit and one drawing of a beautiful girl's smile (amongst other details). Although I was suspended for two days, I got a date with Brittany who loved my drawing, so I feel like I came out ahead on that one. In my last year of school, the final mathematics exam asked the following question: Determine the points of intersection between the following parabolas and lines. Illustrate fully. While the other students slaved away to solve the listed problems in the allotted time, I fully illustrated a drawing of our math teacher, Mr. Aaronson, dancing a slow waltz in a field of sunflowers with Mrs. Stevens, the geography teacher. It was the worst-kept secret in the school that our two shyest teachers had massive crushes on each other, and after four years of watching them pine away, I thought they could use a little push. I failed the test, but Mr. Aaronson showed my drawing to Mrs. Stevens during a particularly dull staff meeting, and when it made her blush and smile, he finally got up the courage to ask her out. They are now married and have a little girl who is as cute as a button. At the end of the year, Mr. Aaronson asked me if I planned to pursue math in the future, and when I assured him that I did not, he gave me a passing grade. So, what was my problem, you might ask? Was I just one of those kids who didn't give a shit and was destined for mediocrity or failure in life? Like many things, the answer is more complicated than it might first appear, but I am getting ahead of myself. Our story starts on an unusually cold and blustery afternoon in late October, on the north-eastern shore of Lake Michigan about a half hour's drive north of Petoskey, just outside a village called Good Hart. Chapter 1. It had been a busy day. The perfect storm of an early season snap freeze, strong winds, and lake-effect snow meant that there was a couple of inches of snow on the still soggy ground, along with a number of leaky or burst pipes, malfunctioning valves, and boiler issues as people cranked their heating systems up to full for the first time that year. As a plumber, though, I didn't mind. It just meant more work for me, which was always a good thing. At only 25 years of age, and despite being a master plumber, I was generally the last choice for folks to call, even in an emergency. Anyone with money chose one of the larger and more established plumbing contractors, leaving me with the jobs that they didn't feel were worth their time or effort. That's how I found myself pulling into the laneway of an older house, just off Lamkin Road down by the lake, late that Friday afternoon. It was my last job of the day, but I would be working over the weekend to catch up on my backlog, so I wanted to get it done. The house looked like it hadn't been updated since it was built, likely in the late fifties or early sixties, other than a couple of coats of paint and a new roof when the original finally gave up the ghost. The front gardens were neatly tended, however, and the property itself was stunning, with panoramic views in three directions out over the lake. The sun was just beginning to dip toward the western horizon as I drove up, so the trees cast long shadows across the laneway. The house was owned by Mrs. Wilma C. Anderson, who had called me earlier in the day to say that some of her radiators weren't working and that her boiler was making one hell of a racket when she turned it on. I told her to shut the system down and that I would look at it by the end of the day. She sounded quite elderly, and I didn't like the idea of her going without heat for a night during a cold snap. I rang the doorbell and waited until a tiny wisp of a woman answered. She couldn't have been more than five feet tall and looked older than the hills, but her face was full of life, and her eyes had a twinkle that spoke of humor and mischief. "Hi, Mrs. Anderson, I'm Davis Crawford. You called earlier about some issues with your boiler and heating system. How can I help?" Mrs. Anderson gave me an appraising look. "I wasn't expecting you to be such a handsome young man. If I were fifty years younger, I would tell you exactly how you could help me, and then I'd teach you a trick or two I learned over the years. But I am too old for that kind of foolishness these days, so I will just have to make use of your plumbing expertise instead. And please, call me Wilma." I couldn't help but laugh and blush at Wilma's surprisingly raunchy sense of humor. I liked her immediately. "Let's try that again. What seems to be the problem?" "Well, the biggest problem is that I am 91 years old and dying of cancer. The doctors give me less than a year to live. But aside from that, I really can't complain. I have had a good run of it." I cocked my head to one side and gave her a bemused look. "Oh, you were wondering what the problem is with my heating system. Well, I turned it on this morning when I got up, and the boiler sounded like there was someone trapped inside of it trying to hammer their way out. There was a worrisome hissing from some of the radiators, as well, and they weren't heating up worth a damn. "My husband, Phillip, used to take care of those things for us, but he has been gone for almost five years now, so I hate to think what you will find when you look around." "I'm sure I can help you, Mrs. Anderson,;" "Wilma, please." "Sorry, Wilma. Why don't you show me to the basement, and I will try to figure out what's wrong. Then I can get started on fixing it." On the way to the basement stairs, Wilma led me through her crowded but orderly living room. I couldn't help but notice the paintings on just about every surface of its walls. "You have a real eye for art, Wilma. Those paintings are beautiful." Wilma smiled wistfully at me and got a faraway look in her eyes as she replied. "Phillip and I were artists. I guess I still am, but I haven't felt much like painting since he passed on. Phillip painted portraits. He made a surprisingly good living at it; you would be amazed at what rich people will pay to see their lives immortalized in oil on canvas. I never had the knack. Phillip could make even the most corpulent and corrupt industrialist appear regal and wise. I could only ever capture what I actually saw in them, and I quickly discovered that they did not enjoy, or pay for, that kind of introspection. "So, I painted landscapes, and there is always a market for those. But I kept some of my favorite pieces, over the years, as you can see." As Wilma spoke, I took a closer look at the paintings. One, in particular, was striking; a portrait of a beautiful young woman, in her late teens or early twenties, with a stethoscope around her neck and her blonde hair pulled back into a tight ponytail. She was wearing a loose hoodie and was curled up in an Adirondack chair, reading a book. It was not what you would expect from a formal portrait, but it seemed to capture her essence in a way that no photograph could match. I must have stopped moving as I was drawn into the image, so Wilma gave me a minute before she continued. "That's the last painting that Phillip worked on before he passed. He didn't get the chance to finish it, but I still think it's his finest work." I couldn't help but agree. "Who's the model? She's beautiful." "That's my granddaughter, Erin. You can't tell from the portrait, but she's a real firecracker. As a grandparent, you're not supposed to play favorites, but she was very special to Phillip, and it hit her hard when he passed. There is more love in that one painting than in all the other portraits that he painted over his lifetime. Except for his first, of course, of me." "Where are Phillips' other works? Surely, they weren't all commissions that are now locked away in some dusty millionaire's palace." Wilma's expression turned bleak as she contemplated her response. "All of his other paintings were sold after he died. The kids said they would fetch a better price while there was an upswing of interest in his work after his death, so they insisted that they all go to auction as quickly as possible. They were probably right, I guess, although I loved his art more than I needed the money. But how do you argue with your kids when they have just lost their father?" "Do any of your children live nearby?" "They all moved far away. Phillip and I chose a wonderful spot to live and make our art, but a challenging place to raise a family. It's not so bad now, what with the internet, highways, and the like, but when we first moved here sixty-some years ago, it was very isolated. We were young and selfish, and our selfishness cost us dearly. "We thought that our children would grow to love this area over time, like we did. But they never did, and they left as soon as they could get away. My daughter, Samantha, is a retired lawyer and she and her third husband split their time between their loft in Manhattan and their beach house in the Bahamas. My son, Robert, is an oil executive down in Texas. Neither of them has been here in more than a decade, except for Phillip's funeral. "My baby, Max, passed away more than twenty years ago now of cancer. Erin is his granddaughter. She is a pediatrician, and she splits her time between the hospital in Petoskey and the children's hospital down in Grand Rapids. She comes to see me when she can, but she is very busy. My other relatives all live busy lives far away from here. We chose to live here, though, so I can't be too upset that the rest of the family chose to live far away. "But enough about me. What about you, Mr. Crawford? Do you have any children?" "It's just me and my siblings, I'm afraid, and it's been that way for quite some time. My oldest sister, Alison, is 20, and she goes to college at North Central Michigan, in Petoskey. She is planning to become a nurse practitioner. The rest of the gang still lives at home with me. Sharon is 17 now, so she kind of runs the show while I am working; Mary is 15 but going on 30, if you know what I mean; and Lane is the baby of the family at 12." "Where are your parents?" "I don't honestly know. We each have a different father, or at least we think we do. Sharon, Lane, and I have no idea who our fathers are, so there's a chance that we might be full siblings, but I doubt it. My mother never kept the same man around for long. Alison's father has been in and out of jail since before she was born and is currently serving a stint in federal prison. But Mary has it the worst of all of us. "My mother met Mary's dad on a weekend bender in Vegas, and he is a pretty big deal. Rich, famous, the kind of guy you see on TV and the cover of magazines. A real family man, except when it comes to Mary, whom he refuses to even acknowledge. He bought my mom's silence with a lump sum payment and a non-disclosure agreement. That money was supposed to be put in a trust for Mary, but my mom snorted and injected it all in less than a year. Mary has written to her father dozens of times and reached out to him on social media countless more, but he wants nothing to do with his bastard daughter. "As for my mom, she went away for the weekend almost seven years ago now and left me in charge. And I am still in charge, I guess. So, no time for dating or romance for me, and I think that I will be just about done with raising kids by the time that Lane goes off to college." Wilma gave me a look filled with more empathy than I had felt in a long time, maybe ever. "Anyway, I should take a look at your boiler and see what I can do about getting you some heat." I would have called the boiler in Wilma's basement old, but that wouldn't have done it justice. Frankly, it wouldn't have seemed out of place in a museum of heating and plumbing, and it was hanging on to life by the barest of threads. With only a year to live, however, I wasn't going to recommend to Wilma that she replace the whole system with something more modern and efficient. "I think I can fix your boiler so that it will hold on for another year or two, and I can patch a couple of leaks in the lines to the main radiators as well. One line to a radiator at the back of the house is completely shot, so I will shut that one off and be back to replace it later this week." "What's all that going to cost?" "It's free of charge, Ma'am. You've got enough to look after with your health and all, without having to worry about your heating system. I never had a grandma to spoil, at least not one that I know of, so it would be my pleasure to do this for you." "Please, it's Wilma. And it's a grandmother's prerogative to spoil her grandchildren, and not the other way around. But your kindness is mighty appreciated, Davis." It took me a couple of hours to shore up the boiler and repair the lines that were still in reasonable condition before I was finished for the day. As I got ready to leave, I found Wilma sitting alone in the living room reading an old paperback. "I'll call you later this week, once the replacement line for your radiator comes in." Wilma got a mischievous smile on her face. "Why, Davis, are you getting fresh with me?" "If I were older and more experienced, I would in an instant. But I hardly think I can compete with the memory of your Phillip." "Too true, too true. Alright young man, well thank you for taking the time to look after a foolish old woman on a cold October night." "I hardly think you're foolish, Wilma, but it's been my pleasure." I didn't get home from Wilma's until well after nine that night, and by the time I pulled into our gravel driveway, I was beat. The dilapidated old yard light mounted on the roof of the garage shone weakly down on the sloppy mix of gravel and mud that was our yard, and I could hear the excited barks of Munchkin, our rescue puppy. He was a mix of German Shepherd and Cane Corso, with some variety of northern dog thrown in, and he was mighty pleased to see me. I'm glad that someone was. I came into our small three-bedroom rental to find Sharon and Lane sitting at the dining room table working on his math homework. I wish that they reacted like Munchkin when they saw me, but Lane just grunted a hello, while Sharon looked up at me with a mixture of sadness and worry. "Mary is out with the McDougal brothers again. They showed up here a half hour ago, I told her not to go with them, but she wouldn't listen." "The McDougal brothers are assholes," was Lane's addition to the conversation, without even looking up from the table. He wasn't wrong. The oldest McDougall brother, Calum, was a couple of years ahead of me at school and was a bully and a braggart. Two of his three brothers had followed in his esteemed footsteps, while the jury was still out on the youngest, James. "I'm going to go get her. Next time that those boys turn up in our yard, let Munchkin lose on them." "Alright, dinner will be in the oven when you get back. Given 'em hell, Bro." The McDougal brothers lived just outside Pellston in the closest thing to a mansion that you could find in our neck of the woods. Their family owned the largest construction and maintenance company in the area and had most of the Public Works contracts sown up, along with a not inconsiderable portion of the private construction in our region as well. Their parents spent most of their time in Sarasota, Florida, though, and the brothers had free rein while they were gone. As I drove up their long, paved driveway, automatic floodlights came on, illuminating the ostentatious columns that flanked the entrance to their house. I parked in front of the nearest bay of their four-car attached garage while noting that there was another three-car garage further off to the right. I idly wondered who got to park in which garage. Rich people problems, I guess. I walked to the front door and let myself in. From the foyer, I could hear the loud thump of music coming from the back of the house, so I headed that way. As I passed through the kitchen, I nearly bumped into James, who was holding a couple of empty serving bowls. He stopped dead when he saw me, looking nervous, clearly not expecting anyone else to be in their house. Certainly not me, anyway. "Hey James, I am here to get my sister. Where is she?" He hesitated a moment before pointing toward the back of the house. "She's in the game room playing pool with the guys. We didn't force her to come here or anything, if that's what you're worried about." "Maybe that's true, James. But you know she is still a minor, and I am her guardian, so I'm going to fetch her and bring her home." James didn't like the sound of that, but I turned my back on him and followed the music to a large, sunken room at the back of the house, which had an expensive-looking pool table in the middle. The remaining McDougal brothers were either playing pool or smoking up on one of the couches that were scattered around the outside of the room. Calum was presiding over the festivities, while the Pistons game was playing on a wall-mounted TV that was bigger than some movie screens. Despite his family's blue-collar roots, Calum looked like an overgrown frat boy, with his preppy clothes and fifty-dollar haircut. Mary was sitting in the middle of one of the couches, with a McDougal brother on one side and one of their hangers-on on the other. She looked somewhere between uncomfortable and scared, but she gave me a defiant scowl. The music stopped, and everyone looked to Calum and then back at me. There was a nervous tension in the air. "Hi Calum, I'm here for my sister." Calum was now in a bit of a spot; he couldn't just let me come into his home and give him orders without losing face with his brothers and their cronies. But he also knew, or at least suspected, that my sister was underage. And then there was always the Pipe Wrench Incident. That always made people nervous to be around me. "That's not my problem. She told my brother that she wanted to party, so she's here to party. No one forced her to come, and she seems to be having a good time." I wondered if all of Calum's dates looked as scared and uncomfortable as Mary did at that moment when they were having a 'good time'. "Well, since she is still a minor and I'm her guardian, it's a bit of a problem. Or it could be. But I don't want to put a damper on your evening, so I'll just bring Mary home with me and we'll call it a night." Calum looked toward James who had just come back into the room with bowls now filled with potato chips. "Is that true, Limp dick? Did you bring an underage girl home to party with us?" James began to sputter before Calum shook his head in disgust. He pointed over at Mary. "Get the fuck out of here, and don't come back until you're sixteen," he said before turning back to me. "And you. Just get the fuck out of our house." It was a silent drive home. Mary refused to even look at me, staring out the window instead. When we pulled into our yard, Munchkin came running up to greet us, and Mary finally spoke. "You didn't need to embarrass me like that. I'm old enough to make my own choices, you know." "The law says you're still a minor. And you'll always be my sister. Those guys are no good, Mary. You know that." "James is different. He isn't like the rest of them." "Maybe that's true, or maybe not. But you don't hang out in a nest of rattlesnakes, just because there is a garter snake in there with them that you think is cute." After a pause and some continued barking from Munchkin, Mary finally looked over at me. "You're not my dad, you know. You can't tell me what to do." And there it was. It always came down to the same thing with Mary; her father's rejection of her. Over the years, it had undermined her self-esteem and destroyed her self-worth to the point where I wondered if they would ever recover. Unfortunately, I was just smart enough to see the problem, but I had no idea how to fix it. A brother's love can only go so far, I guess. "I know, Mary. I know. But I love you, and I am so proud of you, and I just wish that was enough." We sat in silence for another minute before she replied. "I wish it was too." Chapter 2. It took a couple of days for Mrs. Anderson's new radiator line to arrive, and I gave her a call when I went to pick it up. "Hi, Mrs. And; Wilma. I was just picking up the replacement line for your radiator, and I was wondering if you needed anything else from town, while I'm here. I was going to come by and install the line later this afternoon if that works for you." "That's very kind of you, Davis. Would you mind picking up a few groceries for me? I can send the store a list, so they will be ready for you when you get there." A couple of my calls that day took longer than expected, so it was late in the afternoon again by the time I made it to Wilma's place. The early season snow had mostly melted away, and her yard was now a combination of gravel and thick soupy mud that could swallow a tire as easily as it could swallow a boot. "Thank you for picking the groceries up for me, you're too kind." "It was no trouble at all, especially since I was coming out this way anyway. If you don't mind me asking, how do you usually get them?" "I used to have a young man up the way who would help me with groceries and yard work, and other small things, but now I am pretty much on my own." "What happened to him? Did he move away?" "No, he still lives in the same place that he always has, but I am pretty sure that my family paid him more not to help me than I was paying for his assistance." "What? That seems like a crappy thing for them to do to you." Wilma gave a resigned sigh and then offered me a coffee while she told me her story. "I think I told you the last time you were here, that most of my family has moved on from this place, except my granddaughter Erin. The rest of them already have an agreement in place with a developer, the McDougals, to turn this property into a high-end resort for the Fudgies, so they have someplace to spend their money after visiting Mackinac Island." "Fudgies," was what the locals called the tourists from down south who descended on the upper peninsula in the summer. "If you don't mind me asking, just how much land do you own?" "Well, Phillip and I didn't have much to spend our money on over the years, so we bought up many of the nearby properties when they went up for sale. We ended up with at least a quarter mile of land that fronts onto the lake, without even really trying." I let out a low whistle. "That must be worth a small fortune. I can understand your family's interest." "At first, they didn't care if I stayed in the house after Phillip died. They figured that I would follow soon enough. After a few years, however, they started to get impatient, and it's fair to say that they are now actively encouraging me to leave, by foot, by car, or in a box. They have generously offered to put me out to pasture in a warehouse for the old and infirm, though, to await my impending doom. "With my cancer, their wish is finally going to come true. By this time next year, I will be sipping coffee with Phillip in whatever afterlife we atheists get to enjoy. Actually, who am I kidding? If there is an afterlife for Phillip and me, the first thing I'm going to do when I get there is get on my knees, undo his belt buckle, and then show him just how much I've missed him these past five years. Wilma looked a bit startled as if she had just remembered that I was still there. "I'm sorry, Davis. You probably didn't need to hear that last part. I just miss him so much. I still see him in the trees and along the shore, and I sometimes hear his voice in the wind off the lake." "It's all good, Wilma. I just hope that my brother and sisters get to experience the kind of love that you and Phillip had someday." "What about you, Davis? Don't you deserve to experience that kind of love as well?" "Maybe I deserve it, Wilma, but I don't think I am going to find it. It's been tough; real tough, looking after my family all these years. I have done things that I am not proud of, but that needed to be done. I don't regret them; I would do anything to protect the people I love. But I doubt that anyone would be able to love me, once they found out what I've done." "I think you are selling yourself short, Davis. We are all artists, and we are all worthy of love." With that, Wilma offered to top up my coffee before I started replacing the broken line. As the evening's shadows deepened, I saw her watching me with compassion and concern in her eyes. Once I was finished, I felt her hand on my shoulder, and she gave it an empathetic squeeze. "A penny for your thoughts?" I stopped what I was doing and turned to look at her. "It's my sister, Mary. I am losing her. She is so hurt and angry that she is beginning to make bad choices, and I don't know how to help her. I've tried to be her brother, parent, and friend, but I'm failing at all three." Wilma offered no judgment, good or bad. She just listened, and when I finished, she spoke. "Bring her over this Sunday around noon. Tell her to wear some old clothes that she doesn't mind getting dirty. You can come too if you would like and bring your little brother to do some fishing, but Mary will be spending her time with me." It wasn't easy convincing Mary to come to Wilma's. If you have spent time dealing with teenage girls, you know that they can be as stubborn as late-season ice on the lake. In the end, I resorted to threats and bribery to get her onboard, but she assured me that she would hate every minute she was there. Lane came with us as well, with the promise that we could spend the afternoon fishing off the end of Wilma's dock. By the time we arrived, Mary was sullenly glued to the passenger seat and wouldn't look up from her phone. Wilma waited a few minutes for Mary, but she stubbornly refused to leave the truck. Eventually, Wilma pulled on her rubber boots and walked over to the truck. She looked up at Mary and started speaking. "There are three things that I know are true. "The first, I've already shared with your brother. We are all artists because we are all worthy of love. But many of us lose our way. We are hurt and abandoned, and we are buried in shame. I was like that for many years. But my husband, Phillip, found me and taught me what it is to be loved. Not just the physical act; although he taught me about that as well; but the certainty that I was seen, known, and cherished. He showed me that I am an artist. You are an artist too. "Second, I am old, I have cancer, and I will die. Not today, and hopefully not tomorrow, but soon. And that is okay; we all die. I have lived a good life. And when I do, I hope that Phillip will be waiting for me with a glass of chilled white wine and his beautiful smile. My art may linger for a while once I am gone but, eventually, it too will be lost. "Third, the world is full of bastards. Your brother tells me that you and he are both bastards. I will tell you a secret that I have shared with very few people; I am a bastard too. "My mother was beautiful but poor. Her parents lost everything during the Great Depression, and she worked as a housemaid for a rich and powerful man to support her family. When she fell pregnant, he put her out on the street and refused to recognize her child, his daughter; me. Because of his rejection, I spent too many years steeped in shame and self-loathing. But eventually, I learned a hard truth; my father was a bastard by choice, while I was a bastard by birth. And those of us who are bastards by birth must never let the bastards by choice win. "Come inside when you're ready. I'm too old and it's too cold for me to stand here waiting for you." With that, Wilma turned and slowly made her way back to the house. Surprisingly, after a minute, Mary followed. When they reached the door, Wilma turned to look back at me. "It's time for you boys to go fishing. There is a warm breeze off the lake that will bring you good luck." Lane and I made our way down the hill to the dock in silence, our fishing rods, ice chest, and tackle box in hand. Unlike a seasonal dock that would be taken out of the lake each fall, Wilma's dock could be used year-round and was built with heavy timbers and steel bracing, so it could withstand the crushing force of the winter's ice. When we reached the dock, we felt the warm wind that Wilma had promised, and we chose our lures and began to cast. After a half hour of fishing, Lane broke the silence. "Do you think it's my fault?" "Do I think what's your fault, Bud?" "That mom left us. That she never came back. Do you think it's my fault?" I sighed as I thought about my answer. "No. It's not your fault. It's no one's fault, really, maybe not even hers. It's funny though, she brought some amazing people into this world. I wish she could have seen how incredible you and your sisters have turned out. But she made her choice, and that's on her, not you." Lane thought about my answer before he continued. "But you would be better off without me. Sharon would have more time to study for the scholarship she will need to get away from here. I try to be nice to Mary, to make her feel better, but I just seem to make things worse for her as well. And I see how hard you work to keep our family together. I feel like you would all be better off without me. If I weren't here, maybe Mom would come back home." I took a deep breath and tried to push down the anger that threatened to overwhelm me; anger at my mother for abandoning us, anger at myself for never being enough, and anger at a world that would leave my brother feeling like it would be better off if he didn't exist. I felt the wind off the lake as it blew across my face, drying my unshed tears before they were formed. As I was wondering how to unbreak my brother's heart, a particularly strong gust of wind blew through and Lane's fishing rod bent into a deep arc, the tip dancing wildly as a fish fought against the line. "Dad! Help;" The drag clicked furiously as the fish pulled line, as Lane fought to keep his rod tip up. I quickly set my rod aside and braced him, my hands held loosely beside his as he fought to reel in his catch. We worked together for what seemed like an eternity before he finally fought his fish to the side of the dock. I grabbed the net and saw that he had hooked a steelhead trout that was easily two feet long and must have weighed at least eight pounds if not more. It was a wonder the drag held steady, and his line didn't break during the fight. As I scooped up his catch, the steelhead's silver sides shimmered like polished chrome in the fading light, and it was so big that it took up over half the ice chest I had brought along to store our catch. Lane was flushed with excitement at landing such an impressive fish, and I was so proud of him that my heart almost ached. "Nice work, Son." He just looked up at me for a moment before throwing his arms around me in a hug. In the time since our mother left, he had never called me by anything other than my name. I never tried to be his dad; I didn't think I was qualified, but I guess that all of us need someone in our lives who will love us without conditions or end. "Never think that you're a burden on me or the family. Maybe you need a bit more from us right now than you can give back, but that's alright. Because sixty years from now, when I am old and can't wipe my ass anymore, you are going to be paying me back in spades, alright?" With that, we went back to fishing in companionable silence. I pulled in a few smaller ones, but nothing to match Lane's steelhead. A few hours later, the wind had picked up and it was getting colder, so we packed up our equipment and made our way back toward the house. Halfway down the dock, however, a huge gust of wind swept through, and I heard a cry followed by a loud splash. Turning back, I saw that Lane's foot had slipped through a broken slat, and he had fallen off the dock. Without thinking, I dropped the ice box and rods and jumped into the water to help him. When I got him to shore, he couldn't put any weight on his ankle, and any efforts to do so were met with cries of pain. I quickly collected our discarded fishing gear and set it to one side, before helping him to slowly make his way back up the hill. The November chill quickly took hold of us as we walked, plastering our damp clothing to our skin, and we were shivering uncontrollably by the time we reached the house. I knocked but it took a minute for Wilma and Mary to come out from the studio at the back of the house. "I am sorry to cut things short, but Lane had an accident down at the dock and he sprained or maybe even broke his ankle. I am going to have to take him to the hospital in Petoskey to get it looked at before it swells up any further." Wilma looked at me with concern. "Maybe you should hold off at least for a little while. My granddaughter, Erin, the pediatrician, is coming for dinner tonight and should be here any minute. Why don't we let her take a look at it before you head into town? And let's get you out of those clothes; you must be freezing. I still have some of Phillip's things in the closet that might fit you." A few minutes later, I had changed into a pair of comfortable but slightly musty-smelling pants, with a warm sweater over a well-worn collared shirt. I was both taller and wider than Phillip had been, at least in the twilight of his years, so the pants were a bit short, while the sweater was tight across my shoulders. While I changed, Mary and Wilma had set Lane up on the couch with his ankle elevated on some pillows. I helped him change out of his wet clothing and into an old sweatshirt and shorts that fit over his swollen ankle. Once Lane was settled, Wilma and I talked quietly in the kitchen. "It's getting late, and you must be getting hungry, but I don't think I have enough to feed everyone." I thought for a moment. "We may be in luck. Lane caught the biggest steelhead I have ever seen earlier this afternoon, but I left it down by the dock after the accident. If you have a few potatoes and maybe a veg or two, I am sure I can whip something up that would feed us all." Wilma looked at me with a sly smile. "He cooks, he plumbs, and he cares for his family, all while cutting a dashing figure in my late husband's favorite sweater. You, Mr. Crawford, are a catch." "I am not sure about that, Wilma," I replied with a laugh, "But either way, this catch had better go and get our earlier catch, so I can get started on dinner." It took me almost half an hour to collect our fishing gear and bring it back up to the truck. By the time I was done, an older SUV was parked behind my truck, which meant that Erin had arrived. After I loaded the gear, I used the fishing knife and stained plastic cutting board that I kept in a bin under the back seat to clean and filet the steelhead before heading inside. From the doorway, I could see a head of sandy-blonde hair pulled back into a loose ponytail sticking up from the far side of the couch, and I heard a calm and melodic voice talking to Lane while Wilma and Mary looked on. I was so lost in that voice that I almost jumped when the latch on the door caught behind me. The head of sandy-blonde hair looked up at the sound, revealing a pair of amber, almost golden eyes. "You must be the father," said that same melodic voice, as those eyes bore their way into my soul. "It's Davis Crawford, and I'm the older brother." "Erin Anderson, nice to meet you. Can you get hold of your parents? We might need to take Lane to the hospital for some X-rays." "No," I replied more harshly than I intended. "No," I tried again, more gently but with an edge to my voice. "Our parents aren't around; I am as close as you're going to get. I am Lane's legal guardian if that helps." There was a slight pause as her amber eyes shifted from surprise to curiosity. "That helps a lot. Why don't you give me 15 minutes or so to take a look at this brave dude's ankle, then we can talk over some options, once I have a better sense of what's going on." "That okay with you, Bud?" I asked as I walked over to the couch. "Yeah, that should be fine," he replied, but his eyes were wide, and his cheeks were flushed. For a moment, I was worried that he might be running a fever, but then I got my first look at Erin, and I understood. Maybe she wasn't classically beautiful like a movie star or swimsuit model, but she was lean and fit, and from what I could see, had more than enough curves in all the right places. It was her face, however, that captured me. She had delicate features accentuated by her high cheekbones, and there was a softness to her expression that spoke of empathy and kindness. Her eyes, though intense, had a warmth that put me instantly at ease. I realized much too late that I had been staring at Erin for an uncomfortably long time while holding the bag of steelhead filets out like some kind of sacrificial offering. While I stood frozen, the look in Erin's beautiful eyes had shifted from curiosity to amusement; I would assume at the fish-carrying simpleton standing in front of her. "Thanks, Dr. Anderson; err, Erin. I appreciate your taking a look at him and; I am going to go cook us up some fish before I make an even bigger ass of myself." Wilma joined me in the kitchen, while Erin continued to assess Lane's injured ankle. We spent the next few minutes dicing the potatoes and veggies and tossing them with some olive oil, salt, and pepper before sprinkling the filets of steelhead with a mixture of herbs. I topped the fish with some slices of a less-than-fresh, but still edible, lemon I found in the fridge, before putting the whole thing in the oven. To be continued in part 2. Based on a post by CleverGenericName, in 4 parts, for Literotica.

Russ Fradin sold his first company for $300M. He's back in the arena with Larridin, helping companies measure just how successful their AI actually is.In this episode, Russ sits down with a16z General Partner Alex Rampell to reveal why the measurement infrastructure that unlocked internet advertising's trillion-dollar boom is exactly what's missing from AI, why your most productive employees are hiding their AI usage from management, and the uncomfortable truth that companies desperately buying AI tools have no idea whether anyone's actually using them. The same playbook that built comScore into a billion-dollar measurement empire now determines which AI companies survive the coming shakeout.Timecodes: 0:00 — Introduction 2:15 — Early Career, Ad Tech, and Web 1.03:09 — Attribution Problems in Ad Tech & AI4:30 — Building Measurement Infrastructure6:49 — Software Eating Labor: Productivity Shifts8:51 — The Challenge of Measuring AI ROI14:54 — The Productivity Baseline Problem18:46 — Defining and Measuring Productivity21:27 — Goodhart's Law & the Pitfalls of Metrics22:41 — The Harvey Example: Usage vs. Value25:18 — Surveys vs. Behavioral Data28:38 — Interdepartmental Responsiveness & Real-World Metrics31:00 — Enterprise AI Adoption: What the Data Shows33:59 — Employee Anxiety & Training Gaps38:31 — The Nexus Product & Safe AI Usage42:08 — The Future of Work: Job Loss or Job Creation?44:40 — The Competitive Advantage of AI53:45 — The Product Marketing Problem in AI55:00 — The Importance of Specific Use CasesResources:Follow Russ Fradin on X: https://x.com/rfradinFollow Alex Rampell on X: https://x.com/arampell Stay Updated:If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zListen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXListen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see http://a16z.com/disclosures. Stay Updated:Find a16z on XFind a16z on LinkedInListen to the a16z Podcast on SpotifyListen to the a16z Podcast on Apple PodcastsFollow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ever wonder why some founders exit with clarity and calm while others get trapped by their own success? We sit down with M&A advisor Brian Goodhart of Capstone Strategic to unpack the real mechanics of selling a mid-market business—what buyers actually value, how timing and structure shape outcomes, and why “someday” is a dangerously vague plan. If your company is your largest asset, this conversation helps you protect it.We go deep on the difference between owning a job and owning a transferable business, the quiet power of clean financials, and building a leadership bench that can run without you. Brian lays out a simple three-phase process—planning and preparation, outreach and engagement, and deal advisory to close—that keeps confidentiality tight, aligns buyer conversations with your priorities, and reduces surprises in diligence. We also break down the “selling equation,” a mix of price, terms, post-close involvement, timing, operational changes, and the personal X-factors that matter to you. Define these early and you invite offers that fit, not just numbers that flatter.Founder fatigue is real, and naming it can save value. We talk openly about burnout, why starting early creates options, and how knowing your “enough” number guides smarter deal structures—from taking some chips off the table to rolling equity for upside. The twist? Preparing to sell often makes the business stronger and more enjoyable, so you may choose not to transact at all. That's the point: optionality. If you want a sale on your terms, or simply a company that runs better now, this is your roadmap.If this resonates, follow and share the show, and leave a review with the one question you still have about selling your business. Your question might shape a future episode.-----About Our Guest:Brian GoodhartCapstone Strategic, Director, M&A Advisory Services8521 Leesburg Pike, Suite 230, Vienna VA 22182bgoodhart@gmail.com717-372-2403www.capstonestrategic.comAs Director of Capstone's M&A Advisory Services, Brian is a proven Growth Engineer experienced in conducting middle-market transactions on both the buy and sell sides. He works side-by-side with clients throughout the deal making process.LinkedIn | Email | WebsiteHear Past episodes of the Way2Wealth Podcast!https://theway2wealth.com Learn more about our Host, Scott Ford, Managing Director, Partner & Wealth Advisorhttps://www.carsonwealth.com/team-members/scott-ford/ Investment advisory services offered through CWM LLC, an SEC-registered investment advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors. The opinions voiced in the Way to Wealth with Scott Ford are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for an individual. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. To determine what may be appropriate for you, consult with your attorney, accountant, financial or tax advisor prior to investing. Guests on Way to Wealth are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Legado Family is not affiliated with CWM LLC. Carson Wealth 19833 Leitersburg Pike, Suite 1, Hagerstown, Maryland, 21742.

Rob Wilson is a performance educator with over twenty years of experience helping people build durable, high-functioning bodies and minds. He joins us on The Ready State Podcast to unpack the uncomfortable truth about performance: it's not free. In this powerful conversation with Kelly and Juliet Starrett, Rob dives into the real price of pushing your limits, why sleep is non-negotiable, and how to reframe “selfish” self-care as the foundation for showing up better in every area of life. Together, they tackle burnout, aging, and what it takes to sustain health and high output in a world that rewards constant hustle.What You'll Learn in This EpisodeThe three waves of fitness, and why Rob Wilson's book represents the vanguard of the third wave.The problem with the democratization of health metrics like Heart Rate Variability (HRV) if you don't know how to interpret the data or take action.The story behind the "Check Engine Light" metaphor, which helps high performers prioritize what to address and what to ignore.Why the phrase "self-care" often fails with service-oriented and high-performing individuals and the analogy used instead.The "Cobra Effect" or Goodhart's Law, and how chasing a metric like a high HRV can lead to misleading and useless outcomes.How to stop the "medical cascade" and apply an experimental framework (test/retest) to chronic, nagging pain and everyday health issues.The true cost of high performance and the crucial need for a "cost mitigation strategy" to avoid burnout.Why context matters more than perfect protocols, and how to create a personal longevity dashboard for continuous adaptation.For more info, follow Rob on Instagram and definitely pick up a copy of his new book, Check Engine Light: Tuning Your Body and Mind to Achieve Performance Longevity.Key Highlights: (00:00) - Intro(00:48) - Check Engine Light Book Overview(06:49) - Check Engine Light Metaphor Explained(14:06) - Importance of Check Engine Light for Everyone(17:49) - Inputs and Outputs in Life(20:37) - One Size Fits All Approach: Myth or Reality?(25:25) - Identifying What Matters Most to You(27:28) - Performance Costs: Understanding Trade-offs(29:27) - Recommended Supplements for Health(32:55) - LMNT: Importance of Hydration Explained(37:10) - Resistance: Creativity's Universal Challenge(39:48) - Becoming Reasonable: A Personal Journey(45:18) - Heart Rate Variability (HRV): Benefits Explained(47:15) - Using Tracking Devices Mindfully(49:57) - The Cobra Effect: Understanding Consequences(57:55) - Setting Up Environments for Success(1:00:20) - Changes Since Writing the Book(1:03:14) - What's Next for Rob: Future Plans(1:04:30) - Finding Rob: Where to ConnectSponsorsThis episode of The Ready State Podcast is brought to you by LMNT and Momentous. 

Are we failing to understand the exponential, again?My guest is Julian Schrittwieser (top AI researcher at Anthropic; previously Google DeepMind on AlphaGo Zero & MuZero). We unpack his viral post (“Failing to Understand the Exponential, again”) and what it looks like when task length doubles every 3–4 months—pointing to AI agents that can work a full day autonomously by 2026 and expert-level breadth by 2027. We talk about the original Move 37 moment and whether today's AI models can spark alien insights in code, math, and science—including Julian's timeline for when AI could produce Nobel-level breakthroughs.We go deep on the recipe of the moment—pre-training + RL—why it took time to combine them, what “RL from scratch” gets right and wrong, and how implicit world models show up in LLM agents. Julian explains the current rewards frontier (human prefs, rubrics, RLVR, process rewards), what we know about compute & scaling for RL, and why most builders should start with tools + prompts before considering RL-as-a-service. We also cover evals & Goodhart's law (e.g., GDP-Val vs real usage), the latest in mechanistic interpretability (think “Golden Gate Claude”), and how safety & alignment actually surface in Anthropic's launch process.Finally, we zoom out: what 10× knowledge-work productivity could unlock across medicine, energy, and materials, how jobs adapt (complementarity over 1-for-1 replacement), and why the near term is likely a smooth ramp—fast, but not a discontinuity.Julian SchrittwieserBlog - https://www.julian.acX/Twitter - https://x.com/mononofuViral post: Failing to understand the exponential, again (9/27/2025)AnthropicWebsite - https://www.anthropic.comX/Twitter - https://x.com/anthropicaiMatt Turck (Managing Director)Blog - https://www.mattturck.comLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/turck/X/Twitter - https://twitter.com/mattturckFIRSTMARKWebsite - https://firstmark.comX/Twitter - https://twitter.com/FirstMarkCap(00:00) Cold open — “We're not seeing any slowdown.”(00:32) Intro — who Julian is & what we cover(01:09) The “exponential” from inside frontier labs(04:46) 2026–2027: agents that work a full day; expert-level breadth(08:58) Benchmarks vs reality: long-horizon work, GDP-Val, user value(10:26) Move 37 — what actually happened and why it mattered(13:55) Novel science: AlphaCode/AlphaTensor → when does AI earn a Nobel?(16:25) Discontinuity vs smooth progress (and warning signs)(19:08) Does pre-training + RL get us there? (AGI debates aside)(20:55) Sutton's “RL from scratch”? Julian's take(23:03) Julian's path: Google → DeepMind → Anthropic(26:45) AlphaGo (learn + search) in plain English(30:16) AlphaGo Zero (no human data)(31:00) AlphaZero (one algorithm: Go, chess, shogi)(31:46) MuZero (planning with a learned world model)(33:23) Lessons for today's agents: search + learning at scale(34:57) Do LLMs already have implicit world models?(39:02) Why RL on LLMs took time (stability, feedback loops)(41:43) Compute & scaling for RL — what we see so far(42:35) Rewards frontier: human prefs, rubrics, RLVR, process rewards(44:36) RL training data & the “flywheel” (and why quality matters)(48:02) RL & Agents 101 — why RL unlocks robustness(50:51) Should builders use RL-as-a-service? Or just tools + prompts?(52:18) What's missing for dependable agents (capability vs engineering)(53:51) Evals & Goodhart — internal vs external benchmarks(57:35) Mechanistic interpretability & “Golden Gate Claude”(1:00:03) Safety & alignment at Anthropic — how it shows up in practice(1:03:48) Jobs: human–AI complementarity (comparative advantage)(1:06:33) Inequality, policy, and the case for 10× productivity → abundance(1:09:24) Closing thoughts

Chasing numbers can actually destroy what made your business great. In this episode, Dan and Ian unpack Goodhart's Law — the idea that once a measure becomes a target, it stops being useful — and how founders accidentally turn smart goals into bad incentives. Plus, you'll hear six ways to build healthier systems, lead better, and stop metrics from running your company off the rails. LINKS Share your thoughts about the podcast (takes 2 mins) (https://getperspective.ai/interview/tmba-feedback) This week's sponsor: SPP.co “Your billing, onboarding & projects in one client portal” (https://spp.co/) This week's sponsor: Smash Digital “Scale your organic traffic with future-proof strategies” (https://smashdigital.com/) Connect with 6-, 7- & 8-figure founders in person and online (https://dynamitecircle.com/) Hang out exclusively with 7+ figure founders and join us in NYC this December (https://dynamitecircle.com/dc-black) 22 FREE business resources for location-independent entrepreneurs (https://tropicalmba.com/resources) CHAPTERS (00:01:16) The Hair-Dye Economy & Durable Businesses (00:03:38) The Problem with Metrics (00:07:44) Fix #1: Revisit Your Brand Promise (00:09:12) Fix #2: Determine a Countervailing Metric (00:12:17) Fix #3: Combine Input and Output Metrics (00:13:12) Fix #4: Refresh Metrics Every 90 Days (00:14:39) Fix #5: Pulse Discipline (00:16:05) Fix #6: The Leadership Lens (00:20:00) The Alt Business School (00:25:42) When a Job Post Becomes a Marketing Hack CONNECT: Dan@tropicalmba.com Ian@tropicalmba.com Past guests on TMBA include Cal Newport, David Heinemeier Hannson, Seth Godin, Ricardo Semler, Noah Kagan, Rob Walling, Jay Clouse, Einar Vollset, Sam Dogan, Gino Wickam, James Clear, Jodie Cook, Mark Webster, Steph Smith, Taylor Pearson, Justin Tan, Matt Gartland, Ayman Al-Abdullah, Lucy Bella. PLAYLIST: Wealth Without a 7-Figure Exit: 5 Steps (https://tropicalmba.com/episodes/wealth-without-7-figure-exit) How to Instantly Improve Your Lead Pipeline by 20-50% (https://tropicalmba.com/episodes/improve-your-lead-pipeline) Growth vs. Optimization — 90% of Growth Comes from 10% of Activities? (https://tropicalmba.com/episodes/growth-vs-optimization)

Episode Show NotesSummaryIn this episode, Dr. Chris Brown sits down with customer experience pioneer Annette Franz, author of Customer Understanding, Built to Win, and her latest book, Employee Understanding. Annette shares her journey from JD Power to becoming one of the leading voices on connecting employee experience, customer experience, and business outcomes. Together they explore the blind spots leaders have around culture, the three-pillar framework for employee understanding, and why listening—not surveys alone—is the foundation of sustainable success.From the “Sunday Scaries Test” to the dangers of gaming metrics like NPS, this conversation is packed with practical insights for leaders who want to design people-centric cultures that drive performance.Key TakeawaysEmployee experience is business critical: Without empowered employees, customer experience and business outcomes suffer.Culture is the shadow of the leader: Leaders shape or allow the culture—there is no middle ground.Three-pillar framework: Culture alignment, employee insights, and leadership empathy are the keys to designing great workplaces.Beware of “lipstick on a pig” fixes: Solve root causes, not symptoms, through service blueprinting and systemic problem-solving.Metrics can mislead: Chasing scores like NPS often backfires; focus on genuine experience improvements.Listen beyond surveys: Stay interviews, roundtables, and employee advisory boards are underused but powerful tools.Modernize or fossilize: Leaders must evolve their practices—or risk irrelevance.Memorable Sound Bites“You get the culture you design—or the one you allow.”“Culture is truly the shadow of the leader.”“Stop asking in exit interviews why people left. Ask in stay interviews why they're still here.”“When leaders beg for scores, you're moving the metric—not the experience.”“If employees feel unsafe to speak up, all you'll hear is crickets.”“Modernize or fossilize—that's the choice facing today's CEOs.”Chapters00:00 – Introduction: Annette's early career at JD Power and the origins of her CX journey.03:00 – Employee Blind Spots: Why leaders still struggle to connect employee experience with business performance.05:40 – The Sunday Scaries Test: How workplace culture impacts employees before Monday even begins.07:15 – Culture & Leadership: Why culture rests squarely on the shoulders of leaders.11:40 – The Three Pillars: Culture alignment, employee insights, and empathy in action.16:20 – Personas & Empathy: Bringing customers and employees to life inside organizations.21:30 – Connecting to Business Outcomes: Linking journey mapping and feedback to measurable ROI.27:20 – Goodhart's Law & Metrics: How chasing numbers distorts reality.31:20 – Yes Madam Case Study: What not to do with employee feedback.35:20 – Lipstick on a Pig: Why surface fixes fail without root cause analysis.37:50 – Listening Beyond Surveys: Stay interviews, listening tours, and employee advisory boards.42:00 – Modernize or Fossilize: Annette's open letter to CEOs.43:30 – AI & Human Connection: Where technology fits—and where it doesn't.46:40 – Delta Airlines Example: A model of connecting culture, employees, and customers.48:30 – Closing Thoughts: Where to find Annette's work and resources.

Caron Treatment Centers' Erin Goodhart answers questions about programs to prevent substance use disorders, explains the term “brain health,” and how treatment for teenagers is significantly different than care provided to adults. Podcast Disclaimer The Parent-to-Parent Podcasts are provided as a service to you from other parents and do not represent professional clinical advice. The views and opinions expressed in the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts are not necessarily those of Caron or its affiliates. Nothing contained in the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts is intended to be instructional for clinical diagnosis or treatment. The information should not be considered complete, nor should it be relied on to suggest a course of treatment for a particular individual. It should not be used in place of a visit, call, consultation or the advice of your physician or other qualified health care provider. You should never disregard clinical advice or delay in seeking it because of something you have heard or read in the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts. Caron and its affiliates are neither responsible nor liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, exemplary, punitive, or other damages arising out of or relating in any way to the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts, content or information contained therein or any hyperlinked website. Your sole remedy for dissatisfaction with the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts, content or information contained therein, and/or hyperlinked websites is to stop using the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts or hyperlinked websites. Please be advised that the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts may be protected by federal and international copyright or other laws, and your right to reprint, republish, modify, reproduce, or distribute the Parent-to-Parent Podcasts may be limited accordingly.

ASHP's senior education director, Cindy Von Heeringen is joined by Angela Goodhart, associate professor of Clinical Pharmacy and Family Medicine at West Virginia University, as she discusses her upcoming Midyear sessions that focuses on key components for a successful residency interview and defining characteristics and values of the different generations.  The information presented during the podcast reflects solely the opinions of the presenter. The information and materials are not, and are not intended as, a comprehensive source of drug information on this topic. The contents of the podcast have not been reviewed by ASHP, and should neither be interpreted as the official policies of ASHP, nor an endorsement of any product(s), nor should they be considered as a substitute for the professional judgment of the pharmacist or physician.

Subscribe to Nicholas Gruen's Substack - https://nicholasgruen.substack.com/I joined the Australian economist Nicholas Gruen recently in his Melbourne home to host his first 'long-form' podcast (although I'm not sure at what hour it goes from short to long)At the core of Gruen's worldview is the “un-seriousness” he levels at Australian politics, the media landscape, institutions and in a word... bureaucracies.From his creation of the HALE Index to his decades inside Australia's public institutions, Nicholas continuously challenges orthodox thinking.The podcast covers the (in my opinion) radical yet (Nicholas's opinion) ancient idea of citizens' juries as a second pillar of representation, the reasons bold policy rarely survives bureaucratic reality, and how lessons from the Toyota production system could help governments actually listen to people at the bottom of the hierarchy.Along the way, Gruen takes us from Australia's superannuation system to pokies, from the mental health crisis to the subtle erosion of public-spiritedness inside organisations. To be specific, these are all the topics covered in this chat.The HALE Index of Well-being – Why GDP misses the mark, how HALE works, and what it reveals about Australia's progress.Measuring What Matters – The limits of subjective well-being metrics, correlations between indicators, and why faux indexes mislead policymakers.Indigenous Policy Contradictions – The tension between material “gap closing” and self-determination, and why policy rarely confronts it.Citizens' Juries & Political Reform – Introducing random selection into governance and how it could act as a check on elected officials.Goodhart's Law in Action – How turning measures into targets corrupts them, and the problem of gaming metrics in education and beyond.Internal vs External Goods – Alasdair MacIntyre's framework and its relevance to public service, corporate culture, and motivation.Institutional Stagnation – Why promising initiatives stall, and how bottom-up programs could scale without being crushed by bureaucracy.Toyota Production System Lessons – Building respect for frontline workers into systems and how it transforms performance.Australia's Superannuation System – Strengths, inefficiencies, unfair taxation, and misaligned regulation of self-managed super funds.Compulsory Voting & Preferential Systems – How they shape Australia's political centre and guard against extreme populism.Universities Today – The shift from idea-driven discourse to metric-chasing careerism, especially in economics.Trade-offs vs Synergies – Why economics often overemphasises trade-offs, and examples of where quality and cost improve together.Timestamps00:00 Introduction to Nicholas Gruen05:41 The Limitations of GDP as a Measure11:08 Inequality and Its Impact on Well-being16:45 The Role of Metrics in Policy Making22:10 The Importance of Community Engagement41:48 Connecting Education to the Real World47:24 Learning from Toyota's Success56:52 The Flaws in Superannuation System01:02:55 Reforming Auditing Practices01:11:39 The Shift in University Education01:20:59 Divergent Perspectives in Economics01:32:49 Rethinking Representation in Democracy01:48:25 The Role of Elite Consensus in Political Change02:07:58 Understanding Domestic Violence in Indigenous Communities02:21:55 The Role of New Media in Political Discourse02:26:38 The Impact of Gambling on Australian Society02:36:08 The Nature of Optimism and Serendipity in Life

Grip strength is a powerful predictor of longevity, linked to lower risks of cancer, heart disease, and all-cause mortality. Jain discusses Goodhart's Law and suggests a holistic approach to health, incorporating compound weightlifting, cardio, mobility exercises, and other health measures like waist-to-hip ratio, HbA1c, and lipids. The key takeaway is that grip strength is a side effect of a healthy, active lifestyle, not the cause of longevity. Get full access to Evolving with Nita Jain at www.nitajain.com/subscribe

This episode focuses again on the fundamental principle that your systems are perfectly designed for the outcomes you are experiencing, regardless of whether those systems were intentionally or accidentally created.Here are the key takeaways from the episode:Uncover how your systems, whether intentionally or accidentally designed, are perfectly configured for the outcomes you experience. The implication of design means choices have been made in setting up a system, but your intent is less important than the actual outcomes produced.Learn why your intent is less important than the actual outcomes when evaluating your systems. If your intent was the sole factor, everyone would achieve their desired results. Instead, systems should be judged by the outcomes they generate.Discover the concept of "accidental design," where unseen factors influence system behaviour. This can be inspired by Goodhart's law, where a measure becomes a target and changes behaviour, or by environmental factors, such as how your workspace impacts your thinking and heart rate.Explore how "invisible systems" – the unexamined rules and assumptions that govern your daily life – profoundly influence your actions and results. These are forces changing your behaviour that you likely haven't evaluated, such as automatically accepting all meeting invites.Understand that human behaviour, including your own, can be an outcome of your systems. This perspective offers the highest leverage opportunity for change, as modifying the underlying system is more effective than relying on temporary motivation or addressing knowledge gaps in isolation.Realise that system boundaries are often arbitrary, and a system's design must account for all factors influencing its outcomes. For example, a quality assurance system cannot be considered good if it fails due to a "talent" issue; the talent pool and hiring procedures are part of the overall system affecting the outcome. Ignoring such factors because they fall outside perceived boundaries of responsibility can lead to irreducible or expensive risks.You are encouraged to investigate the invisible parts of your systems and write down the assumed rules that govern your life, even if you haven't evaluated their truth or helpfulness.

Send us a textThe price system solves a profound coordination problem by communicating dispersed knowledge that no central planner could ever fully access or comprehend. We explore Hayek's insight about how prices serve as both information and incentives, allowing self-interested actions to inadvertently benefit society.• The "knowledge problem" – why information needed for economic decisions is dispersed among millions of individuals• Tale of two farmers – how profit-seeking Mo unknowingly serves society better than altruistic Al• Markets generate information through commercial processes that otherwise wouldn't exist• Goodhart's Law – when measures become targets, they cease to be good measures• Soviet planning failures – absurd outcomes like factories producing single giant nails to meet weight quotas• Recycling pennies – potential approaches as the US phases out penny productionMentioned in the podcast:FA Hayek, "Use of Knowledge in Society" (AER, 1945) Michael Munger, Socialist Generation Debate"Goodhart's Law""What Do Prices Know That You Don't?"Ross Kaminsky, of KOA:iHeart RadioSegments with RossRoss on X (@rossputin)My Duke colleague Bruce Caldwell, on the intellectual history of Hayek's 1945 AER paperBook'o'da'week! Three suggestions (but mostly Red Plenty!)Paul Craig Roberts' "Alienation and the Soviet Economy" Alec Nove's "The Economics of Feasible Socialism"Francis Spufford's "Red Plenty"If you have questions or comments, or want to suggest a future topic, email the show at taitc.email@gmail.com ! You can follow Mike Munger on Twitter at @mungowitz

June 25th: Good Hart Murders (1968) A vacation is the perfect opportunity for rest and relaxation. Maybe even some time with the family you love. It's not a time where one would expect to be the victim of a horrific crime. On June 25th 1968 a family became the target of a dangerous individual while staying in their vacation cabin. A case that, at least officially, remains unsolved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tobi Lütke is the founder and CEO of Shopify, a $130 billion business that powers over 10% of all U.S. e-commerce. Starting as a snowboard shop in 2004, Shopify has become the leading commerce platform by consistently approaching problems differently. Tobi remains deeply technical, frequently coding alongside his team, and is known for his unique approach to leadership, product development, and company building. In our conversation, we discuss:• Why complexity kills entrepreneurship• How to develop and leverage your unique talent stack• How specifically Tobi approaches thinking from first principles• The importance of focusing on unquantifiable qualities like joy and delight• Why Tobi works backward from a 100-year vision• Why metrics should support decisions, not make them• The power of following your curiosity• What Tobi believes it takes to be a great product leader• Much more—Brought to you by:• Sinch—Build messaging, email, and calling into your product• Liveblocks—Ready-made collaborative features to drop into your product• Loom—The easiest screen recorder you'll ever use—Find the transcript at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/tobi-lutkes-leadership-playbook—Where to find Tobi Lütke:• X: https://x.com/tobi• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobiaslutke/• Website: https://tobi.lutke.com/—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Welcome and introduction(04:17) The Tobi tornado(07:10) Maximizing human potential(11:05) Education and personal growth(16:47) Operating without KPIs(25:00) First-principles thinking(40:04) Remote work(45:59) Why Tobi never stopped coding(54:46) Embracing disagreement(01:01:27) The 100-year vision(01:09:29) Balancing tactics and positioning(01:17:15) Encouraging entrepreneurship(01:19:34) The power of good UX(01:28:42) The talent stack and unique opportunities(01:34:30) The role of passion in product development(01:36:39) Final thoughts and farewell—Referenced:• How Shopify builds a high-intensity culture | Farhan Thawar (VP and Head of Eng): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-shopify-builds-a-high-intensity-culture-farhan-thawar• Breaking the rules of growth: Why Shopify bans KPIs, optimizes for churn, prioritizes intuition, and builds toward a 100-year vision | Archie Abrams (VP Product, Head of Growth at Shopify): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/shopifys-growth-archie-abrams• The ultimate guide to performance marketing | Timothy Davis (Shopify): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/performance-marketing-timothy-davis• Brandon Chu on building product at Shopify, how writing changed the trajectory of his career, the habits that make you a great PM, pros and cons of being a platform PM, how Shopify got through Covid: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/brandon-chu-on-what-its-like-to-build• IRC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRC• Goodhart's law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law• Glen Coates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/glcoates/• How Shopify builds product: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-shopify-builds-product• The Last Dance on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/80203144• Autoregressive Models for Natural Language Processing: https://medium.com/@zaiinn440/autoregressive-models-for-natural-language-processing-b95e5f933e1f• Archimedean property: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedean_property• Tabula rasa: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabula_rasa• Daniel Weinand on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielweinand/• World of Warcraft: https://worldofwarcraft.blizzard.com• Harley Finkelstein on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/harleyf/• Monorepo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monorepo• The Sarbanes Oxley Act: https://sarbanes-oxley-act.com/• Shopify builds Shopify Balance with Stripe to give small businesses an easier way to manage money: https://stripe.com/customers/shopify• Stanford marshmallow experiment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment• Brian Armstrong on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/barmstrong/• We are the Web: https://link.wired.com/public/32945405—Recommended books:• Finite and Infinite Games: https://www.amazon.com/Finite-Infinite-Games-James-Carse/dp/1476731713• The Infinite Game: https://www.amazon.com/Infinite-Game-Simon-Sinek/dp/073521350X/—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. Get full access to Lenny's Newsletter at www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe

Jim talks with Kristian Rönn, co-founder of the carbon accounting tech company Normative, about his book The Darwinian Trap: The Hidden Evolutionary Forces That Explain Our World (and Threaten Our Future). They discuss Darwinian traps & demons, the parable of Picher, Oklahoma, the "cost of doing business" mentality, beauty filter arms races, perverse incentives in science, Goodhart's law, how nature deals with defection vs cooperation, kamikaze mutants, pandas as evolutionary dead ends, close calls with nuclear weapons, engineered pathogens, AI risk, radical transparency at the nation-state level, reputation systems, types of reciprocity, distributed reputation marketplaces, developing Darwinian demon literacy, local change, and much more. Episode Transcript The Darwinian Trap: The Hidden Evolutionary Forces That Explain Our World (and Threaten Our Future), by Kristian Rönn "Five Rules for Cooperation," by Martin Nowak "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis," by Nick Bostrom Kristian Rönn is a founder, author, and global governance advocate. He pioneered cloud-based carbon accounting by founding Normative, a platform that helps thousands of companies achieve net-zero emissions. A proponent of effective altruism, Kristian advocates for prioritizing the wellbeing of Earth's inhabitants as the key metric for progress. Before Normative, he worked at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, focusing on global catastrophic risks and AI. He has contributed to numerous global standards, legislation, and resolutions on climate and AI governance.