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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: What success looks like, published by mariushobbhahn on June 28, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. This article was written by Marius Hobbhahn, Max Räuker, Yannick Mühlhäuser, Jasper Götting and Simon Grimm. We are grateful for feedback from and discussions with Lennart Heim, SE and AO. Summary Thinking through scenarios where TAI goes well informs our goals regarding AI safety and leads to concrete action plans. Thus, in this post, We sketch stories where the development and deployment of transformative AI go well. We broadly cluster them like Alignment won't be a problem, . Because alignment is easy: Scenario 1 We get lucky with the first AI: Scenario 4 Alignment is hard, but . We can solve it together, because . We can effectively deploy governance and technical strategies in combination together: Scenario 2 Humanity will wake up due to an accident: Scenario 3 The US and China will realize their shared interests: Scenario 5 One player can win the race, by . Launching an Apollo Project for AI: Scenario 6 We categorize central points of influence that seem relevant for causing the success of our sketches. The categories with some examples are: Governance: domestic laws, international treaties, safety regulations, whistleblower protection, auditing firms, compute governance and contingency plans Technical: Red teaming, benchmarks, fire alarms, forecasting and information security Societal: Norms in AI, publicity and field-building We lay out some central causal variables for our stories in the third chapter. They include the level of cooperation, AI timelines, take-off speeds, size of the alignment tax, type of actors and number of actors Introduction There are many posts in AI alignment on sketching out failure scenarios. However, there seems to be less (public) work that talks about possible pathways to success. Holden Karnofsky writes in the appendix of Important, actionable research questions for the most important century: Quote (Holden Karnofsky): I think there's a big vacuum when it comes to well-thought-through visions of what [a realistic best-case transition to transformative AI] could look like, and such a vision could quickly receive wide endorsement from AI labs (and, potentially, from key people in government). I think such an outcome would be easily worth billions of dollars of longtermist capital. We want to sketch out such best-case scenarios for the transition to transformative AI. This post is inspired by Paul Christiano's What Failure Looks Like. Our goals are To better understand how positive scenarios could look like To better understand what levers are available to make positive outcomes more likely To better understand subgoals to work towards To make our reasoning transparent and receive feedback on our misconceptions Scenarios In the following, we will sketch out what some of the success stories for relevant subcomponents of TAI could look like. We know that these scenarios often lack important detailed counterarguments. We are also aware that every single point here could be its own article but we want this post to merely give a broad overview. Scenario 1: Alignment is much easier than expected The alignment problem turns out much easier than expected. Increasingly better AI models have a better understanding of human values, and they do not naturally develop strong influence-seeking tendencies. Moreover, in cases of malfunctions and for preventative measures, interpretability tools now allow us to understand important parts of large models on the most basic level and ELK-like tools allow us to honestly communicate with AI systems. We know of many systems where a more powerful actor is relatively well aligned to one or many powerless actors. Parents usually protect their children who couldn't survive without them, democratic governments...
mit Raiffeisen Landesbank Vorstandsvorsitzender Wilfried Hopfner, Grünen-Energiesprecher Christoph Metzler und die Olympia-Rennrodler Thomas Steu und Yannick Müller
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: EA Analysis of the German Coalition Agreement 2021–2025, published by Yannick Muehlhaeuser on January 24, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. On 24 November 2021 three German parties (SPD, FDP and the Greens) agreed on a coalition agreement (PDF in German) that sets the German government's plans for the next four years. Here, we will analyse this agreement with effective altruist considerations in mind. We hope this post will improve the effective altruist community's model of the new German government and what to concretely expect for various cause areas. Epistemic Status: Overall we expect to have a positive bias towards the new government's plans. Furthermore, all of us are non-experts in the covered policy fields, limiting the depth of our analyses. Across all authors we've spent around 40-50h on this post. As every government is incentivised to present itself in the best possible light, we expect our methodology of focussing solely on the coalition agreement to slightly—though systematically—overrate the coalition. Planning fallacies on the government's side will likely also limit some policy proposals' full execution and impact. Max Räuker, Jasper Götting, Marius Hobbhahn, Simon Grimm, Ludwig Bald and Yannick Mühlhäuser contributed equally to this project. Executive Summary Across the government's agenda we found only a few concrete policy proposals on core EA topics. We considered the following proposals particularly promising: Plans to increase PPE stockpiles Measures to enhance farmed animal welfare Increased and more sophisticated state investments in R&D Streamlining permitting procedures and addressing NIMBYism (largely) technology-agnostic climate change mitigation The government's continued stance against nuclear energy strikes us as a mistake. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, we also found the lack of ambition on biosecurity surprising. The coalition agreement puts significant focus on shortening and streamlining permitting procedures and other bureaucratic hurdles, which we welcome. German policy-making currently seems more in flux than usual. Hence, the case for EA engagement with German politics arguably got stronger (see conclusion). Background Germany is the wealthiest and most populous member of the EU and plays a key role in international affairs. Germany has high favorability ratings throughout the world and relatively high state capacity. We therefore think that the plans of the next German government are particularly relevant for effective altruists focused on policy. The new government consists of three parties: SPD: center-left social democratic party Greens: progressive party with major focus on climate change FDP: socially liberal, fiscally conservative party All three parties are in general supporters of stronger European integration and social liberalism. Remaining differences are biggest in climate and fiscal policy. The Greens favour a more expansionary fiscal policy, which the FDP opposes. The FDP supports more moderate free-market solutions on climate change, while the Greens endorse more ambitious state-directed projects. We have the impression that coalition agreements are a relatively honest representation of the government's goals, though the language is often very finely crafted and might hide disagreement. Nevertheless, according to one estimate the last government fulfilled around 80% of its promises—we expect similar to slightly lower results for this government. The rest of this post will first focus on major EA cause areas; further below you will find a summary of other policy changes we thought notable. Core EA Issues Artificial Intelligence Overall, the government's stance is very vague, e.g. it is not clear how they want to balance regulation and innovation. There is no explicit stance on AGI or AI safety. The government ...
Wir haben ihn gehört. Er spielte im Proberaum so authentisch Klavier, dass wir uns dachten: Diesen Pianisten holen wir zu uns in den Podcast. Und das, obwohl er nicht Ryan Gosling ist. Yannick Münster ist in dieser Folge zu Gast und gemeinsam haben wir uns gefragt, was diese Woche passieren könnte. Am Sonntag wisst ihr dann, ob wir am Start der Woche in die Zukunft sehen konnten. Vielleicht können wir ja bald mit unseren Fähigkeiten als Hellseher arbeiten. Abgesehen davon ist Ostern und obwohl der Podcast wegen seiner Anspielung im Namen etwas mit Ostern zu tun haben könnte, gehen wir wie ein Nilpferd durch die alljährliche Tradition und wenn ihr irgendwo ein Chamäleon in einem Bagger sehen solltet, wisst ihr, dass die Hellseher wieder einmal Recht hatten. Als kleines Experiment haben wir ausprobiert, ob wir das Schema F der Drehbuchautoren Hollywoods knacken konnten. Zum Abschluss gibt es noch viele moralische Worte und eine Überraschung die ihresgleichen sucht. Also legt euch eure 100% Schokolade zurecht und genießt die neue Gästefolge. Aber nicht so hastig sonst..... Alles Gute Alles Liebe Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpLaoYw8xug Raikaya: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6PdxfUPM_gakdMZlxo2pA Yannicks Instagram: @ymusic471 Hoppel
Artist: Yannick Müller (Aarau, Switzerland) Name: DHM Podcast #976 (August 2020) Genre: Electronic Release Date: 15.08.2020 Exclusive: Deep House Moscow Yannick Müller: https://www.facebook.com/yannickmuellerofficial Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/yannickmueller Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/yannick.muller CONTACT (DHM): Email — deephousemoscow@hotmail.com Follow us: www.facebook.com/deephousemsk/ www.instagram.com/deephousemoscow/ vk.com/deephousemsk/
We love sailing on foreign waters and exploring the world. That's exactly why we decided this time to launch an exclusive collection of pearls - which, by the way, have been waiting for a long time to see the light of day - on the market! We call our newest work of art "Intercultural Nodes" because it is exactly what we embody. Let's go through them one by one. With "Ego & ID", the Polish-based artist Indygo has given us a phenomenal downtempo symbiosis that is a perfect starting shot for the constellation. We continue with "Yerevan 2051" by the Armenian living artist Arni Rock whose demo inspired us from day one on. We are happy to welcome him on the latest sampler as well! Yannick Müller - who is living in Switzerland - protected another pearl, called Ishani, which already waits for an eternity to see the light of day. With Novo our newest catalogue number is finished, Patrique gave the whole story a little drive with some brasilian accents soundcloud : https://soundcloud.com/indygoxoxo facebook: https://www.facebook.com/indygoxoxo/ beatport: https://www.beatport.com/artist/indygo/180615 sc: https://soundcloud.com/guesthouseberlin facebook: https://www.facebook.com/guesthouseberlin/ site: https://guesthouseberlin.org
Just a quick and dirty version of what to expect from myself and the podcast! stay tuned for next time where I sit down with Yannick M. Banville and talk about his experiences as an ultra endurance athlete .
In der ersten Ausgabe unserer neuen Reihe "ballesterer in 120minuten" sprach Alex Schnarr aus der Redaktion mit Benjamin Schacherl vom ballesterer sowie Yannick Müller und Michael Vogt vom streetbolzer e.V. aus Kassel über die Integrationsdebatte im Fußball. Das Thema bildet gleichzeitig auch den Schwerpunkt von ballesterer-Ausgabe 137, die Ihr hier bestellen könnt. Im Gespräch ging es zunächst um Benjamins Arbeit am ballesterer-Schwerpunkt, bevor dann die Praxis der Integrationsarbeit mit und durch den Fußball im Mittelpunkt stand. Yannick und Michael berichteten von ihrer Tätigkeit für streetbolzer e.V., Benjamin gab Einblicke in die Aktivitäten der Wiener Initiative "Kicken ohne Grenzen". Im Anschluss wurde ein größerer Bogen gespannt, der sich um die Frage drehte, was der Profifußball eigentlich von der Arbeit an der Basis lernen kann. Schließlich wurde die Rolle der Verbände in Sachen "Integrationsarbeit" thematisiert, ging es um die Verknüpfung von Fußball und Bildungsarbeit und überlegten die Gesprächsteilnehmer abschließend, welche Potentiale, aber auch Grenzen der Fußball in Fragen der Integration bietet. Wie immer freuen wir uns auf Euer Feedback zur aktuellen Folge und natürlich auch über eine angeregte Diskussion zum Thema auf Facebook, Twitter oder bei uns im Blog.
Ein Wirbelsturm zur Sommernacht, lässt entspannt die Blätter über den Asphalt tanzen. Zerzaust das Haar, die Friseur ist auf und weg. Sanft streicht der Wind über die Wange. Mit einem Schwall kalter Luft kreuzt er deinen Weg. Umhüllt dich mit einem Mantel natürlicher Kraft. Bläst dir in den Rücken, treibt dich unablässig voran. Du bist der Generator die Natur dein Benzin. Dieser Podcast von Yannick Müller induziert, wie auch der Wirbelsturm zur Sommernacht, Schneid und Triebkraft. Wir bedanken uns mit Liebe im Herzen und Aufrichtigkeit auf der Zunge. More info : Yannick Müller : Soundcloud : https://soundcloud.com/yannickmueller Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/yannickmuellerofficial Download for free on The Artist Union
Unsere 109 kommt von Yannick Müller, straight outta Schweiz. Yannick gehört zu der Sorte von Musiker, die man getrost als Allrounder bezeichnen kann. Er ist Dj, Produzent, Labelchef, Eventmanager und und und. In der Schweiz schon eine Größe der Szene, ist er auch vermehrt in Deutschland zu hören. Unter anderem spielte er auf dem Sonne Mond Sterne Festival, dem Wurzel Festival oder in berliner Clubs wie Mensch Meier, Ritter Butzke oder Kosmonaut. Wir sagen Danke für den tollen Podcast und wünschen maximalste Unterhaltung
Hit the [↻ Repost] button if you like it! #132 of our podcast row by @ben-yoosuk! ➡ https://www.facebook.com/pg/benyoosukmusic ➡ https://www.instagram.com/benyoosukmusic Im Alter von 8 Jahren begann Ben, Musikunterricht mit dem Cello zu nehmen und zwei Jahre später kam das Klavier dazu. Lange pflegte er mit grosser Freude das Spielen dieser beiden Instrumente, ob in Gruppen oder alleine. Den Bereich der elektronischen Musik entdeckte Ben eher spät und gehörte dort lange nur zu den Konsumenten. Entdeckt hat er diesen Stil dazu durch Tracks von Jonas Mantey, Nils Hoffmann und Marek Hemmann. Durch einen Freund entdeckte er die DAW Ableton und beschloss kurzerhand, sich diese zu holen und eigene Tracks damit zu basteln. Dabei geschah alles durch ausprobieren, langes Herumspielen und YouTube-Tutorials. Seit irgendwann im Jahre 2014 lädt er nun regelmäßig seine Tracks auf Soundcloud. Sein Stil ist immer noch stark geprägt durch seine Phase der klassischen Musik, seine Tracks sind durchzogen von jeglichen Instrumenten und zahlreichen wunderschönen Melodien. Zu seinen Einflüssen und Motivationen zählen heute eher jüngere Künstler, auch aus seinem Umfeld wie etwa „Ben Ashton“, „Yannick Müller“ oder auch der aus Paris stammende „Napkey“. Download for free on The Artist Union
Eagle Sessions #121 is out now! I’m currently touring Thailand that’s why I’m not able to record new sets with the freshest tracks. I decided to play you some bits and pieces form live recordings of myself. The first hour is recorded a couple of months ago at the Sass Club in Vienna. Guestmix in the second hour comes from Yannick Müller, right out of Switzerland, one of the masterminds behind RAWLZ Music and a great producer and DJ. Check out his Facebook page on: https://www.facebook.com/yannickmuellerofficial/ Enjoy the music For more info visit eaglesessions.com or my facebook page on fb.com/djalbird Tracklist is not available for the episode! This show is syndicated & distributed exclusively by Syndicast. If you are a radio station interested in airing the show or would like to distribute your podcast / radio show please register here: https://syndicast.co.uk/distribution/registration
Eagle Sessions #121 is out now! I'm currently touring Thailand that's why I'm not able to record new sets with the freshest tracks. I decided to play you some bits and pieces form live recordings of myself. The first hour is recorded a couple of months ago at the Sass Club in Vienna. Guestmix in the second hour comes from Yannick Müller, right out of Switzerland, one of the masterminds behind RAWLZ Music and a great producer and DJ. Check out his Facebook page on: https://www.facebook.com/yannickmuellerofficial/ Enjoy the music For more info visit eaglesessions.com or my facebook page on fb.com/djalbird Tracklist is not available for the episode! This show is syndicated & distributed exclusively by Syndicast. If you are a radio station interested in airing the show or would like to distribute your podcast / radio show please register here: https://syndicast.co.uk/distribution/registration
Every other week the best deep sounds in an one hour mix provided by MH Musique. From The Known To The Unknown. Like the mix? Click the [↻ Repost] button! Follow MH Musique @officialmh www.facebook.com/officialMH www.youtube.com/c/MHMusique twitter.com/MHmusique Tracklist: 01. Gorgon City - Sky High [ITH] 02. Ferreck Dawn - Heaven Sent (Bordertown Dub Mix)[Love & Other] 03. Andhim - Boy Boy Boy (Joris Voorn Remix)[Black Butter Records] 04. Ben Ashton & Yannick Müller - Atempause [Rawls Music] 05. Whitney Houston - Dance With Somebody (INSTRUM Remix)[Free download] 06. Midnight City - Sexy Lady [Free downoad] 07. XYconstant - Silverlined (CID Remix)[Warner Music] 08. Martin Solveig "+1" (KREAM Remix)[Free download] 09. The Wombats - Give Me A Try (Don Diablo Remix)[Hexagon] 10. VICE - Find A Way (feat. GARY PINE & SHAYON THEHITMAN) (Lucas & Steve Remix)[Flight Club Music] 11. SNBRN - Raindrops feat. Kerli (Mr. Belt & Wezol Remix)[Ultra] 12. The Hi-Yahs X Lady Parts - Sweetest Sin [Free download] 13. ZHU - Faded (Absence Remix)[Free download] 14. MNEK x Disclosure - White Noise (XYconstant Remix)[Free download] Download for free on The Artist Union