The Odd Years

When we booked this episode with Pod Save America co-host Dan Pfeiffer several weeks back, our plan was to talk about the Democrats and their strategy and messaging around Trump - something Dan's been writing about for his Substack, Message Box. Should Democrats just focus on the economy? Should they raise alarm bells over deportations? How loudly and strongly should they push back against Trump?And we do discuss that, but as it turned out, there was a lot more to talk about with Dan. For one, as a former Obama senior adviser, Amy wanted to ask his thoughts on the new reporting coming out about Joe Biden's health and how his inner circle worked to conceal it. In addition to that, we received an important report from the data firm Catalist about 2024 voters, shedding more light on why Kamala Harris lost and Donald Trump won. As a fellow data nerd, I knew Dan would be ready to dive into it.We recorded this on Wednesday, May 21st.You can watch our entire conversation on our YouTube channel.Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Rahm Emanuel has held many titles: Congressman from Illinois, DCCC Chairman, Chief of Staff to Barack Obama, Mayor of Chicago, and Ambassador to Japan under President Biden.These days, he doesn't have an official position at the moment. But that's not stopping him from giving some very pointed advice to Democrats on every possible platform: cable TV, political shows, podcasts, late night TV, and different political conferences.So how does Rahm Emanuel think Democrats should be responding to Trump 2.0? How does the party recover from 2024 and prepare for 2028? What does a successful midterm strategy look like in 2026? And given his own, let's say, active media schedule, what are his own plans for the future?He came on to talk to Amy about all that.We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, May 14th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

You may know our guest today, Josh Holmes, as one of the hosts of the popular political podcast, Ruthless.For those of you who don't know, Ruthless is to the conservative media sphere as Pod Save America is to the liberal media ecosystem.But long before he started his podcasting gig, Amy knew Josh as a Republican political operative.He was chief of staff to Mitch McConnell and ran his 2014 re-election campaign. He also had a stint at the National Republican Senate Committee. He now runs the public affairs firm, Cavalry, and he's still actively giving advice to Republican candidates.Josh's two roles as a member of the new media and a seasoned Republican political hand gives him unique perspective into our current political era. This conversation spans a similar gamut from what advice he'd give to down ballot Republicans for the upcoming midterms to his thoughts on the Trump tariff endgame. Josh also talks about how candidates can best navigate the new media landscape.We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, May 7th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

We are 100 days into the second Trump administration and there's no better person to help us understand what voters are making of these first months of Trump 2.0 than Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson.Kristen is a founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm. She's a contributing opinion writer for The New York Times and an on air political contributor at CNN.Quick disclaimer: we taped this conversation on Thursday, April 24th, before the flurry of 100 day polls were released this past weekend. That's why you won't hear us asking her about these polls. But the reason we wanted to have Kristen on in the first place was that we didn't want to get caught up in the immediate set of data. We wanted Kristen to do what she does best which is to filter the signal from the noise, present a 30,000 view of the political environment rather than focusing on the minutiae or just small movements in data. What we like about Kristen so much is that she's able to to toggle seamlessly between reading cross tabs but also probing voters in focus groups and really listening to what they are saying or not saying, and then explaining it to regular people in a way that is approachable but not condescending.That's why we were especially excited to talk with her about a presidency as complicated and unprecedented as Trump's.Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Way back in the late 1990s, Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook had an idea to rank all 435 congressional districts by their partisanship - in other words, whether a district is more Republican or more Democratic.That way, we'd be able to see, at a quick glance, which members of Congress represented districts that were either slightly or strongly partisan. For example, is a certain Republican representative in a very solid Republican seat…. or in one that is only slightly red… or even one that was blue or blue leaning?Thus was born the Cook PVI, which stands for Partisan Voting Index. And since 1998, CPR has released a new addition every two years.This admittedly very geeky undertaking is also something we get really excited about because it cannot only tell us the partisanship of every district, but with more than 25 years of data, we can see how districts have shifted over the years. The person behind the Cook PVI and how it all works is David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report's senior editor and elections analyst.We invited him on to explain what the Cook PVI is, how we calculate it, what we learned from it for 2025, and what it may tell us about elections in 2026. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, April 9th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upRead Dave's Cook PVI analysis: https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/introducing-2025-cook-partisan-voting-index-slightly-depolarizing-electionLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

On the last podcast, Amy talked with Chauncey McLean, head of the Democratic super PAC Future Forward, about their media strategy for Kamala Harris and why things didn't work out as they had hoped.For this podcast, we turn to the ad strategy of the Trump campaign with John Brabender, the chief creative officer for the media company BrabenderCox.John was hired as Trump's ad consultant in early 2023 and worked with him throughout the entire campaign. He had incredible access to and input from Donald Trump about the ad making process and strategy, which he shares with us here in colorful detail - like what it's like to work on the Trump campaign and, specifically, to work with the president when putting these messages and ads together. We also wanted to talk to John about whether the lessons he learned working for Trump could translate to non-Trump candidates and Republican downballot candidates who have to run in the 2026 midterms.This conversation was recorded on Wednesday, April 2nd.

Back in the 2012 cycle, Chauncey McLean was a young staffer on the Obama campaign working in the newly developing field of data analytics.Six years later, McLean put those data science skills - and the ones he developed while working in the private sector testing ads for commercial products - to work as head of the Democratic super PAC, Future Forward.Most outside super PACs like these do an extensive amount of polling and survey work and bring in multiple outside advisers to help manage and produce campaign ads and other material. What makes Future Forward unique is the tremendous amount of survey data and ad testing that they do. Its team of data scientists surveyed millions of voters and tested thousands of ads with the goal of finding and airing the ads that moved the needle the most with the voters.During 2024, the group poured more than $600 million dollars into ads that supported first Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris' campaign for president.At the end of the day, the Trump campaign's advertising and media strategy was more successful, particularly his ability to connect with younger men via social media platforms like podcasts and YouTube. As the Democratic party struggles to find its footing, we wanted to talk to Chauncey McLean about what he learned from Harris' loss and how Democratic groups like his are adapting to this fractured media environment going forward.We recorded the conversation on Wednesday, March 19th. To learn more about The Cook Political Report go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe.

We've been wanting to have Terrence Woodbury on the podcast for a long time.The reason is that he's a pollster who has done some amazing work with demographic groups that made a big difference in the presidential race last year, but also in previous cycles: Black voters, voters of color, and younger voters.And if many Democrats were surprised by the erosion in support among what they thought was a reliable Democratic base, Terrence has been observing this slide for years -- particularly among men of color, a group he calls the new swing voter. As a pollster to the Kamala Harris campaign, he and his company HIT Strategies, had a front row seat to how voters felt about Harris, Donald Trump, and the Democratic party as a whole.So we wanted to ask Terrance to discuss the results of the 2024 election, but also look forward to what he's hearing now from voters with Donald Trump in office and what he thinks the Democratic response should be to the Trump era.Terrence Woodbury is cofounder and president of HIT Strategies which is a public opinion research firm. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, March 12. To learn more about The Cook Political Report go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Last year, as March Madness kicked into gear, there was one athlete everyone seemed to be talking about: Caitlin Clark. The then University of Iowa guard was on her way to leading her team to the NCAA finals, selling out stadiums everywhere she went and creating an unprecedented level of excitement around women's basketball. This interest followed her to the WNBA when she signed with the Indiana Fever.Our guest, USA Today sports columnist Christine Brennan, is writing a book about Caitlin Clark called On Her Game, which tells the story of Clark's rise to become the most famous female team sport athlete in history.Christine has been a long-time chronicler and advocate for women in sports. She's also deeply interested in politics and has a keen understanding and appreciation for how sports and politics intersect.We wanted to have Christine on to help tell the story of how laws like Title IX helped pave the way for a phenom like Caitlin Clark. And we also wanted Christine to reflect on where we are today when it comes to politics, sports and gender.These three topics have always been intertwined in our culture, but the Trump era has brought it to a different level. In Trump's first few weeks in office alone he appeared at the Super Bowl and signed an executive order banning transgender athletes from competing in women's athletics. We also had Canadians booing the U.S. national anthem at an international hockey game in response to Trump's tariff threats as well as his references to annexing our northern neighbor.Christine Brennan is an award-winning national sports columnist for USA Today. She's a commentator for CNN, ABC News, and PBS NewsHour. Her book about Caitlin Clark is available right now for preorder on Amazon. It will be available wherever books are sold in early July.Pre-order Christine Brennan's book: https://www.amazon.com/Her-Game-Caitlin-Revolution-Womens/dp/1668090198Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

This is a special episode in your podcast feed. You are about to hear a recent edition of Editors Roundtable, our Cook Political Report podcast where our team of editors trades behind-the-scenes analysis and dives into the weeds on races and elections. If you're a political junkie - and chances are high that you are if you're listening to this - subscribe to Editors Roundtable today in Apple podcasts for just $1.99 a month. You can also listen by subscribing to the Cook Political Report. On this episode, Amy Walter, Erin Covey, and Matthew Klein take a look at our new 2026 House Race Ratings. They go over why these ratings look they way they do right now and explain why they will change over the next 21 months before election day. They also talk about which races they had disagreements over. In two cases, those races fell in districts that have been moving to the right.To read about our 2026 House Race Ratings and see where each race stands go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Few people in Washington have shaped the political media ecosystem like Chuck Todd. Amy first met Chuck more than 25 years ago when he was the editor of what was then one of the most innovative news media disruptors of its time - The Hotline. The Hotline was political media's first aggregator using the breakthrough technology of the 1990s - the fax machine - as a way to get and distribute local media coverage of campaigns and elections.After helming that publication for years and seeing it through the Internet era, Chuck went over to a more traditional media institution, NBC News. But he brought his entrepreneurship with him, starting a daily MSNBC show that was modeled in many ways on The Hotline style of bringing campaigns and elections to the center of the conversation.He became a household name in 2014 when he took the role of moderator on Meet the Press. He helped expand the footprint of the show to include a daily program, a podcast, and a blog.He stepped down from that role in 2023 and recently announced he would leave NBC News.Covering Washington looks a lot different now than when Chuck first started out, and he has had a front row seat to all of these changes. So we wanted to talk to him about political journalism today, covering Trump 2.0, and his own plans for what might come up next. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, February 12th.

Whether you expected it or not, it seems pretty safe to say that President Trump's first days have been defined by its intensity, a very fast moving news cycle, and often, the trademark chaos we remember from his first term. And that's why we love conversations like this one with The Wall Street Journal's Molly Ball.She's the kind of journalist who offers clearheaded insight into the many twists and turns and helps us consider the bigger questions we should be asking about what success or failure might look like for Trump this time around.So we wanted to have Molly on to give us some context for these early days of Trump's second term. But we also wanted to ask her about how she approaches her job of political storytelling - especially when it involves accessing some of our highest profile politicians - which is what she did when she wrote a book about Nancy Pelosi a few years back. Molly Ball is The Wall Street Journal senior political correspondent. You can check out her podcast, Trump 2.0, which comes out every Friday for the first 100 days of the second Trump administration.Molly is also the author of Pelosi, a biography of Nancy Pelosi, the first woman Speaker of the House. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, January 29th at 10:30amTo learn more about The Cook Political Report go to www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

We are kicking things off with a topic Amy has been fascinated by - the gender divide in American politics and why it's so pronounced among Gen Z.In the past, young voters have reliably supported the Democratic candidate for president, regardless of gender. Just four years ago, a majority of both young men and young women voted for Joe Biden. But in 2024 the picture looked different. A majority of young women did support Kamala Harris. But a majority of young men cast their vote for Donald Trump. In fact, 56% of young men voted for Trump compared to only 4% of young women. None of this was a surprise to Daniel Cox, our guest today. He's been watching this gender divergence unfold for years now, and he says it's happening on so many levels: that gender informs Gen Z's views on a range of issues from social, to culture to, of course, political. So Amy wanted to talk to him about why this is, will it last, and what's making this cohort so different from previous generations.Daniel Cox is Director of the Survey Center on American Life and a senior fellow in polling and public opinion at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of the forthcoming book, Uncoupled, which will focus on the growing gender gap in American society. He also writes the Substack American Storylines. To learn more about The Cook Political Report go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

We started The Odd Years in 2023, which was both a literal odd numbered year, and also a political odd year; a year when there were no national elections. But Amy enjoyed these conversations so much - and so did you - that we kept going into 2024 even though it was an even year. We just couldn't help ourselves. As we head into another odd year, we are ready to launch the third season of The Odd Years. As many of you have noted, our title has a few layers of meaning. Odd describes so much happening in our world now, and we'll get into that with our guests. What's making the times we live in interesting, unpredictable, surprising?Amy will talk to people who live and breathe politics (like ourselves) and plenty who do not. So be sure to follow and listen in.

For our final show of 2024, we are bringing you a conversation we recorded a couple weeks ago with the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman and the two pollsters who collaborated with the our team on 2024 Swing State Project.We started the project in the spring of 2024 in order to get a deeper understanding of the issues, concerns, and priorities of voters in the seven key battleground states.We teamed up with two amazing pollsters, Patrick Toomey, partner at the Democratic firm BSG, and Greg Strimple, president of GS Strategy Group, a Republican polling company.What we really loved about working with Greg and Patrick and their teams is that these are campaign pollsters. They understand the dynamics involved, not just in what voters are saying, but also how candidates and campaigns would respond to them.We conducted three surveys with Greg and Patrick, one in May, one in August, right after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the top of the ticket, and a final one in September. You can find all of those at here along with our analysis. The one consistent theme we saw throughout those three polls was that voters' concern about the state of the economy and inflation dominated even as events like Biden's last minute dropping out and an assassination attempt on Trump roiled the campaign.So Amy started this conversation with Dave, Greg, and Patrick by asking: even though Kamala Harris was able to narrow the gap on economic issues from where Joe Biden stood earlier in the year, in the end, was this simply it's an economy stupid election? **We're excited that we'll be back in 2025 with a brand new season. Our guests will include people who live and breathe politics - like us! - and plenty who do not. We'll be back soon in the New Year, but for now, enjoy our final show of 2024.**

Americans often say they hate how vitriolic and polarized our politics has become, and yet our current political system helps to promote this very behavior. That's why there's been a push for electoral reforms that incentivize candidates to appeal to voters across the political spectrum instead of just focusing on the most ideological and extreme voices in their party.Reforms like a primary system that all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same ballot, with the top two or more advancing to the general election. Another reform is ranked choice voting, which asks voters to rank their pick of candidates in order of preference.The thinking behind these ideas is that the American public is less divided than the elected officials we send to congress, and that makes it harder to pass legislation that many people actually support. So if there's a way to run our elections so that candidates didn't have to appeal to the more extreme elements of their parties, shouldn't we move towards that kind of system? That all sounds like something voters would like to see, right? Reformers thought so too. And in 2024, they helped get ranked choice voting on the ballot in a bunch of states like Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho, as well as Washington, DC. But while Americans are quite unhappy with how politics and governing worked these days, these reforms ultimately were rejected in almost all the places where they appeared on the ballot. Why was that? We asked Nick Troiano to join Amy on the podcast to help answer this question and learn more about where the electoral reform movement goes next. Nick has long been a part of the electoral reform movement. He's the executive director of Unite America, a nonpartisan election reform organization.He's also the author of The Primary Solution: Rescuing Our Democracy From The Fringes.

Presidential elections in Wisconsin the last two cycles have been incredibly close. In 2016 and 2020, they were decided by less than one percentage point. Of course, polling in the state has been notoriously "off" - or maybe fickle - which makes it more important than ever to talk to people who have been covering politics in Wisconsin for quite some time and can help us understand the many whims and changes there. That's why we invited Craig Gilbert to talk today. He is a self-described chronicler of close Wisconsin elections and he calls it one of the "most enduring" of the battleground states. Craig has covered politics in Wisconsin since 1988. He was the Washington bureau chief and national political reporter for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He is now a fellow at Marquette Law School's Lubar Center.

It's hard to overstate just how important Pennsylvania plays in deciding the Electoral College winner. If Kamala Harris loses the state, she'd need to win North Carolina or Georgia, as well as Nevada and the remaining blue wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan. If Trump were to lose Pennsylvania, he'd need to pick off at least one of those other Midwestern swing states - Michigan or Wisconsin - and would need to win Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, as well as North Carolina. Right now, polling suggests the outcome in Pennsylvania is on a knife's edge, which isn't surprising given that President Biden carried the state by just about 80,000 votes in 2020 and in 2016, Trump won the state by just over 68,000 votes. So what makes Pennsylvania the swingiest of swing states? Way back in the 1980s, Democratic strategist James Carville dubbed the state Philadelphia on one side, Pittsburgh on the other, and Alabama in the middle. But our guests today, Philadelphia Inquirer reporters Julia Terruso and Aseem Shukla, recently took a detailed look at voting patterns in the state and identified five distinct places that are critical to a candidate's success there. Julia Terruso covers politics and our divided electorate for the Inquirer. And up until recently, Aseem Shukla was a data reporter for the Inquirer. You can now find him at the San Francisco Chronicle. Please check out their really fantastic interactive piece, The Five Kind of Places That Win you Pennsylvania.

Amy's guest today, Dr. Michael Bitzer, calls North Carolina the "stuck battleground state." That's because Republicans have dominated there in presidential elections. And yet, every four years, Democrats hold out hope that they can turn it blue. Barack Obama did it in 2008, but no other Democrat has done so since.Will 2024 be different? Joe Biden thought he could keep the Tar Heel state in play but as he struggled nationally, his numbers sunk. It's a different story with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket and North Carolina is now a very close race.Today, Amy turns to Dr. Michael Bitzer, Politics Department Chair at Catawba College and author of the blog, Old North State Politics, to learn more about the state of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and what to look for as we get closer to election day.**Do you want insider access to Amy Walter, David Wasserman and the rest of the Cook Political Report editorial team? Registration to our live 2024 Election Preview on October 2 is now open for all annual, group and premium subscribers. We'll have a presentation on key races and the political dynamics of 2024, followed by a Q&A session. If you are interested in attending and not yet a subscriber, go to www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Unlock all the inside access and benefits of a Cook Political Report subscription. We hope to see you on October 2!**

Amy's guest today, Dr. Michael Bitzer, calls North Carolina the "stuck battleground state." That's because Republicans have dominated there in presidential elections. And yet, every four years, Democrats hold out hope that they can turn it blue. Barack Obama did it in 2008, but no other Democrat has done so since. Will 2024 be different? Joe Biden thought he could keep the Tar Heel state in play but as he struggled nationally, his numbers sunk. It's a different story with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket and North Carolina is now a very close race. Today, Amy turns to Dr. Michael Bitzer, Politics Department Chair at Catawba College and author of the blog, Old North State Politics, to learn more about the state of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and what to look for as we get closer to election day. **Do you want insider access to Amy Walter, David Wasserman and the rest of the Cook Political Report editorial team? Registration to our live 2024 Election Preview on October 2 is now open for all annual, group and premium subscribers. We'll have a presentation on key races and the political dynamics of 2024, followed by a Q&A session. If you are interested in attending and not yet a subscriber, go to www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Unlock all the inside access and benefits of a Cook Political Report subscription. We hope to see you on October 2!**

Right before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, his path to victory appeared very narrow. It was: win the midwest states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But with Kamala Harris now at the top of the ticket, the electoral map could open up for Democrats, and some of those states that Joe Biden won in 2020, but seemed out of reach in 2024, could be back in play. One of those states is Georgia. Biden won narrowly there in 2020 thanks in large part to significant turnout and support from the Black community. Recent national polls show Kamala Harris running stronger with younger and voters of color than Biden. This helps to explain why her campaign chose Atlanta for her kickoff rally last Tuesday night.Trump campaigns at the very same spot on Saturday. Our guest today is Maya King, New York Times politics reporter for the Southeast based in Atlanta. We wanted to talk to her about what she's hearing from voters in Georgia and how Kamala Harris is changing the dynamics in the state. We spoke on Friday afternoon, a day before Trump's Atlanta rally.

A special episode of The Odd Years: Amy and David catch up with David Axelrod in Milwaukee at the RNC. The three discuss what they're seeing on the ground, their thoughts on the selection of J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, and the situation for President Biden and the Democrats as they head into their convention in a few weeks. David Axelrod is the founding director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago; former Chief Strategist and Senior Advisor to President Obama; senior political commentator at CNN; and host of the podcasts "Hacks on Tap" and "The Axe Files." **Subscribe to the Cook Political Report with our new $99 election season pass. Get the latest analysis, first, from our top-notch team for the next 4 months. Subscribe here: cookpolitical.com/subscribe**

We originally asked our guest today, Michael Podhorzer, to come on to talk about voter demographics. Mike was the longtime political director for the AFL-CIO. He's now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and he writes a Substack called Weekend Reading. And Mike has been one of the pioneers in Democratic circles using data and analytics to inform campaign strategy. After we invited him on, President Biden had his terrible debate performance and the entire presidential race took a sharp turn. So we're going to start with the news, and then later we'll get into some of his big pictures thoughts on horse race polls, education polarization (he has differing opinions from our last guests on this topic), and what he calls “the anti-maga coalition.” Since news is moving fast right now, we recorded this conversation on Tuesday, July 9 at 2pm.

If you listen to this podcast, you've probably heard of the so-called education divide in American politics with those with college degrees increasingly supporting Democrats and liberal causes and those without college degrees, increasingly supporting Republicans and conservative social issues. On today's show, Amy talks with Matt Grossman, Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and professor of political science at Michigan State University and Dave Hopkins, associate professor of political science at Boston College. They are the co-authors of a book coming out this fall called Polarized by Degrees. Matt and Dave explore how this divide came to be and its impact on voting behavior. But they also look at what the degree gap says about which political party has power in the American culture - in corporate board rooms, on college campuses, and in the media - and why that's created a "perpetual cultural war."

The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, Jessica Taylor and Erin Covey answer your mailbag questions this week.They weigh in on what Trump's conviction will mean for Republicans in down-ballot races; they go into the weeds on their process for rating two congressional districts in California; they discuss Senate races in Virginia and Minnesota; and they explain why they don't believe in what some are calling a "reverse coattails" dynamic in the presidential race.

Donald Trump is very popular in rural America. Drive down a rural stretch of road, and you are still likely to see Trump flags waving in the breeze or the Trump logo painted on the side of a barn. Rural parts of America have always been conservative-leaning. But Republicans now dominate rural politics from the top of the ticket to the bottom. There have been plenty of books written about how and why Republicans, and Trump in particular, have thrived in rural parts of the country. Our guests today have one of the newest additions to the mix. Dan Shea and Nick Jacobs are professors at Colby College, and their book is “The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America.” Dan and Nick conducted 10,000 surveys of rural voters. They dug into hundreds of years of voting history to try and understand the voting patterns we are seeing today, and to provide a more nuanced picture of rural voters.

Amy Walter is joined by her colleague, Cook Political Report Senior Editor and Election Analyst David Wasserman. First, they answer a listener's question on partisan realignment, particularly among education lines. Next, they dive into the question of which House Republicans won by Biden in 2020 are the most endangered.Ask us your questions here or by calling 202-739-8520 (press 8). Remember to say your name and where you are calling from.

Amy is back with a conversation about the new show now streaming on Max, The Girls on the Bus. The show stars Melissa Benoist as Sadie McCarthy, a scrappy and ambitious journalist covering a fictional Democratic presidential primary. It follows Sadie and three other women reporters as they navigate the campaign trail, while juggling their careers, personal lives — and relationships with one another. The Girls on the Bus is inspired by the book “Chasing Hillary” by Amy Chozick, a former New York Times reporter. Amy's book chronicled her experiences covering Hillary Clinton's 2008 and 2016 presidential campaigns.Amy Walter talks with Amy Chozick and Julie Plec, co-creators and executive producers of The Girls on the Bus, and actress Melissa Benoist. They discuss politics, journalism, and turning campaign coverage into a television series.

Amy sits down with her Cook Political Report colleague, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst David Wasserman, for a walk down memory lane. In honor of The Cook Political Report's 40th Anniversary, David selected the defining House races of every cycle since 1984. Amy and Dave reminisce about the names, faces, issues, and districts that have shaped congressional politics over the past 40 years.Read Dave's full report here.

The Odd Years is back with season two. It is a big election year, and we know you have many questions for the team at The Cook Political Report. We are opening season 2 with a listener mailbag. In this episode, Amy answers questions about swing states to watch in 2024 and what to make of Robert Kennedy Jr.'s support.Ask us your questions here or by calling 202-739-8520 (press 8). Remember to say your name and where you are calling from.

In 2020, Donald Trump's considerable margin of victory among white working-class voters was expected, but his success in winning a larger share of the Latino and black vote was not. Amy's latest guest, Republican Pollster Patrick Ruffini, argues that Trump's advances with these voters is part of a more significant realignment in our politics. Amy talks to Patrick about his fascinating new book, "Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP." The pair discuss whether Trump will be able to keep this coalition in 2024 and the influence of culture on voting patterns.

Host Amy Walter confesses her love of Apple TV's For All Mankind and the magic of its decade-spanning montages and storytelling to none other than the show's Executive Producers and writers, Ben Nedivi and Matt Wolpert. As season 4 of the show launches, the trio goes deep into the show's origin [03:28]; whether we should consider the show science or fiction [06:57]; taking a closer look at Gary Hart, Al Gore, and Ellen Wilson's journey in FAMK to the highest office in the land [21:19]; the creative process, electoral maps and fictional news reports featured in the montages [16:33; where the show will go as it catches up to our actual reality [24:22]; grieving the loss of beloved characters [37:04]; favorite political reads [39:53]; and much, much more.Catch up on #ForAllMankind, and its Season 2, 3 & 4 montage openers, on AppleTV+.

Amy Walter talks with Mark Z. Barabak, a political columnist for the Los Angeles Times, focusing on California and the West. They discuss his new series, "The New West," which explores the forces and factors that led once-reliable Republican states like Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada to turn from red to purple and blue. Amy and Mark also delve into the state of the 'Reid Machine' in Nevada, the importance of Latinos to Democrats' success and how the post-COVID "work from anywhere" economy could play into future voting patterns.

Amy Walter chats with Astead Herndon, a national politics reporter for the New York Times and the host of the "The Run-Up" podcast. Amy and Astead grapple with the fact that while voters are overwhelmingly against a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024, it still appears to be the inevitable outcome. Astead notes that we are "careening towards a rematch very fast." The pair discuss the lack of enthusiasm around Biden. Astead makes the point that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the face of the Biden campaign on the road and will be under more scrutiny from the media.

Amy Walter catches up with Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark and founder of the Republican Accountability Project. Sarah also hosts The Focus Group podcast, which brings listeners into wide-ranging conversations with voters. Sarah and Amy discuss where Donald Trump is already showing his potential strength in a general election [6:16]. Sarah also reflects on what she's heard in focus groups to explain where Ron DeSantis' candidacy went wrong [10:04], why evangelical voters aren't coalescing around Mike Pence, and what to expect from Tim Scott in the coming months [21:22]. Amy also asks Sarah whether a third-party candidate could hurt Biden with swing voters [31:20], and Sarah turns the tables on Amy to ask whether Trump actually could lose the Republican primary. [38:55]

Amy Walter talks with Josh Putnam, a political scientist and consultant known for his expertise on the presidential nominating process. You can read more about it in his blog, frontloadinghq.com.Amy and Josh discuss the implications of some states' winner-take-all delegate rules in the Republican primary [6:00] and Democrats' primary calendar shake-up [12:00], including how much of the changes made to the 2024 calendar stick in 2028 [24:00]. They also discuss why it may be too late for potential GOP candidates like Glenn Youngkin to join the presidential primary [27:00], how to detect early signs of a third-party candidate shaking up the general election [29:00], and how Ron DeSantis could still “win the delegate game.” [35:00]

Amy Walter talks to the one and only Kara Swisher, a highly respected and deeply sourced technology reporter. Kara is currently the host of the podcast On with Kara Swisher, the co-host of the Pivot podcast and an editor-at-large at New York Magazine. Amy and Kara discussed AI's role in the 2024 campaign season. Kara gives some much-needed perspective on the future of AI and whether Washington can or will be able to regulate it. She also explains why we should be more worried about the people that use AI rather than AI itself.This conversation took place on May 17, 2023Host:Amy WalterProducers:Kate WeckerAlly FlinnKathryn Hamm

Amy Walter interviews two political science professors, Lynn Vavreck, the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, and John Sides, the William R. Kenan, Jr. Chair in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. Their books, "Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America" and "The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy," examine the current political era and how it has shifted from conflicts over the size of government to identity-inflected issues. This shift is a significant reason politics feels angrier than ever. Amy, John and Lynn discuss how and why this has happened and what we can expect going into the 2024 election. They also explore political leaders' role in breaking down partisan divides and why they believe the current political climate is unlikely to change anytime soon.Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.

Amy Walter talks to Judy Woodruff, renowned journalist and former anchor of the PBS News Hour. Woodruff discusses her new series, America at a Crossroads, which aims to explore the deep divisions in American politics. She talks about her long and distinguished career in journalism, starting with covering Jimmy Carter's campaign for governor of Georgia in 1970. Amy and Judy discuss whether there can be a solution to America's polarization. They also delve into how Judy stays optimistic, covering these divides.

Amy talked with Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Kristen is the founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm. You've likely seen her on CNN, Fox, ABC News or many other political programs. She hosts her Sirius XM program, The Trendline with Kristen Soltis Anderson. Amy and Kristen started their conversation with the day's current events, the arraignment of former President Trump in a Manhattan courtroom [02:00], and what it means for 2024. They also discussed a DeSantis vs. Trump matchup [07:00], the effect of Roe vs. Wade on the midterms [18:00], millennial voters [21:00] and the state of the political polling [29:00].Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.

On March 31, The Cook Political Report and National Journal invited its premium subscribers to attend an exclusive event in Washington, DC. That morning, following the news of former president Trump's indictment in New York, National Journal's Editor-in-Chief, Jeff Dufour, their White House reporter, George Condon, and Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter shared their thoughts on the impact on the 2024 race, challenges for Biden's re-election, and the likelihood of a debt ceiling resolution.Subscribe to the Cook Political Report for bonus content from the Odd Years. Episode links: The Sunday Nightcap with Jeff Dufour from National Journal

In this bonus episode of The Odd Years, Editor-in-Chief of the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter (@amyewalter), chats with the Senior Editor of the US House of Representatives, David Wasserman (@Redistrict), about the release of the historic Cook PVI℠ and what the Partisan Voting Index — first developed by Charlie Cook in 1997 — tells us about how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole.The full report is available at cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report subscribers can access full transcripts and video recordings.

Amy talked with Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. Anna is a senior partner of the polling firm GQR. In 2022, she polled for several high-profile House and Senate campaigns, including Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, Senator Michael Bennett from Colorado, and Congresswoman Kim Schrier from suburban Seattle.Amy and Anna started with a conversation about why some polls, including some by Democrats, overestimated Republican strength in 2022 [01:27], and the role abortion and the Dobbs decision played for Democrat successes last year [10:19]. They also discussed 2024 and why Anna thinks regardless of who the GOP nominee may be, the Republican party remains defined by Trump [12:16].And finally, they talked about the issue of crime and how, in Anna's words, Democrats are "too scared of the left and they're too scared of the right." [31:50]Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.

Often described as “laboratories of democracy,” state legislatures have often produced legislation or ideas that eventually make their way to Washington. And, of course, many of these state executives also find their way into national political office. Helping us dig through the trends, priorities and personalities in state capitols is Reid Wilson, founder and editor of Pluribus News, a new digital media outlet offering the most comprehensive coverage of state-level public policy in America.Cook Political Report subscribers can access the full transcript and video recording. This episode was filmed on February 9, 2023.

On the first episode of The Odd Years, Amy Walter and Andy Laperriere (Head of US Policy Research for Piper Sandler) dig into the challenges and opportunities for Republicans & Democrats as they navigate a divided government and continued narrow margins. Cook Political Report subscribers can view the full original recording with subscriber Q&A here.This episode was originally filmed on January 18, 2023.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter introduces a new podcast for 2023. Amy Walter and the team will interview political professionals and other leaders in their fields highlighting topics & trends that aren't normally associated with traditional political discourse, and expanding the definition of a “political program.” #OddPod