Podcast appearances and mentions of bob wachter

Eric asks the question that is on many of our minds - is the future of AI more Skynet from Terminator, in which AI takes over the world and drives humanity to the brink of extinction, or Wall-E, in which a benevolent and empathetic AI restores our humanity? Our guest today is Bob Wachter, Chair of Medicine at UCSF and author of the Digital Doctor: Hope, Hype, and Harm at the Dawn of Medicine's Computer Age.  Bob recently wrote an essay in JAMA on AI and delivered a UCSF Grand Rounds on the same topic.  We discuss, among other things: Findings that in several studies AI was rated by patients as more empathetic than human clinicians (not less, that isn't a typo). Turns my concern about lack of empathy from AI on its head - the AI may be more empathetic than clinicians, not less. Skepticism on the ability of predictive models to transform healthcare Consolidation of EHR's into the hands of a very few companies, and potential for the drug and device industry to influence care delivery by tweaking AI in ways that are not transparent and already a sort of magical black box. AI may de-skill clinicians in the same way that autopilot deskilled pilots, who no longer new how to fly the plane without autopilot A live demonstration of AI breaking a cancer diagnosis to a young adult with kids (VITAL Talk watch out) Use cases in healthcare: Bob predicts everyone will use digital scribes to chart within two years Concerns about bias and other anticipated and unanticipated issues And a real treat- Bob plays the song for this one!  Terrific rendition of Tomorrow from the musical Annie on piano (a strong hint there about Bob's answer to Eric's first question).  Enjoy! -@AlexSmithMD  

In this captivating episode, join hosts Nicole and Shieva as they engage in a thought-provoking conversation with Dr. Bob Wachter, the eminent Chief of Medicine at UCSF. Together, they explore the evolving landscape of Generative AI, discussing historical challenges in early healthcare initiatives, notably the rollout of the electronic medical record. Dr. Wachter describes how AI will become a valuable ally for clinicians, lightening their workload by seamlessly handling tasks such as crafting meticulous clinical notes, expediting insurance authorization requests, and skillfully summarizing complex patient records. Importantly, Dr. Wachter discusses the pitfalls of AI in medicine, specifically inherent biases, hallucinations and the propensity to lead to clinician automation and complacency. Dr. Wachter discusses the potential for how AI will change the healthcare workforce and hopefully lead to a safer and more affordable healthcare system. Don't miss this insightful episode about the future of artificial intelligence in medicine. To learn more about Dr. Bob Wachter: X: @bob_wachter  https://medicine.ucsf.edu/people/robert-wachter https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/26/science/review-digital-doctor-robert-wachter.html Articles: https://www.aha.org/hhnmag/6561-ways-artificial-intelligence-will-transform-health-care https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2023/11/426716/how-artificial-intelligence-could-transform-health-care https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2812615 https://blog.research.google/2024/01/amie-research-ai-system-for-diagnostic_12.html

This episode features a conversation with Dr. Bob Wachter, a prominent physician and academic known for his significant contributions to the field of healthcare and technology. Dr Wachter has authored several influential books including the brilliant "The Digital Doctor: Hope, Hype, and Harm at the Dawn of Medicine's Computer Age" (2015) In 2016, Dr. Robert Wachter was commissioned by the UK government to deliver Wachter Review aimed to assess the state of health information technology (IT) in the National Health Service (NHS) and provide recommendations for its improvement.  As we mark seven years since the Wachter Review, Dr Wachter joins me to reflect on the progress made, future potential, and address the persistent challenges facing the NHS. The conversation explores the journey that the NHS has come on since 2016 including the widespread introduction of electronic health records, patient health record access and development of NHS CCIOs. It also explores the future of AI enabled healthcare, the challenge of the so-called productivity paradox and whether AI is likely to result tin evolution or revolution of care delivery.

Andy calls four of his most trusted COVID experts to discuss their favorite memories from the past three years of the show. Dr. Eric Topol, Dr. Ashish Jha, Dr. Katelyn Jetelina and Dr. Bob Wachter candidly reflect on the pandemic. They remember the highs and lows, and spotlight  the importance of banding together to fight the virus. They also share the resources you should follow for the latest COVID news after the podcast is over. Plus Andy considers five important lessons he learned from other past guests. Keep up with Andy on Post and Twitter @ASlavitt. Follow @EricTopol @ashishkjha @dr_kkjetelina & Bob_Wachter on Twitter. Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium.  Support the show by checking out our sponsors! Click this link for a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this show and all Lemonada shows: https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/  Check out these resources from today's episode:  Read Katelyn Jetelina Substack “Your Local Epidemiologist”  Don't miss Eric Topol's Substack “Ground Truths” Katelyn suggest's Dr. Caitlin Rivers Substack “Force of Infection” Find vaccines, masks, testing, treatments, and other resources in your community: https://www.covid.gov/ Order Andy's book, “Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics, and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response”: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250770165  Stay up to date with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia.  For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We are delighted to welcome Professor Bob Wachter in this episode of the SNUG podcast. He  is Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), a highly influential voice in the worlds of medicine and Health IT, renowned for his book "The Digital Doctor"and the 2016 Wachter Report on NHS digitalization. He joins us to discuss a wide range of current topics, including the future prospects for healthcare, with a particular focus on the impact of digitalization, consumer expectations, and the balance between technology and human interaction in medicine. We discuss the trends in both US and UK in terms of digitalisation, increasing demand for health care, and the impact of technology on doctor-patient interactions, as well as the rapid advancements in AI, and how healthcare delivery may be reshaped in the future. We look at issues of trust, bias, and the potential consequences of over-reliance on machines, including “automation complacency”. And finally, we explore the dynamic use of social media, particularly X/Twitter, in combating misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Professor Wachter discusses his social media journey, emphasizing the role of trusted voices in providing reliable information during crises. Any feedback or comments are welcome via email: andrew.mcelhinney2@nhs.scot or alex.defranco@phs.scot You can subscribe to the SNUG podcast on the following platforms: SNUG podcast on Apple podcasts     SNUG podcast on Google podcasts    SNUG podcast on Spotify NHS Digital Academy Robert Wachter on The Digital Doctor Bob Wachter's Viral Tweet and Thoughts on AI in Medicine A Fireside Chat with Eric Topol ChatGPT: Will It Transform the World of Health Care? UCSF Department of medicine videos on Youtube In the Bubble podcast - The Doctor Can't See You Now (with Dr. Christine Sinsky) Prof Bob Wachter on X /Twitter @Bob_Wachter     SNUG on X /Twitter @SNUsersGroup

The gig was up, but when he finally got COVID, it was pretty far down on his ER problem list. This podcast is intended for US healthcare professionals only. To read a full transcript of this episode or to comment please visit: https://www.medscape.com/features/public/machine Eric J. Topol, MD, Director, Scripps Translational Science Institute; Professor of Molecular Medicine, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, California; Editor-in-Chief, Medscape Abraham Verghese, MD, Physician, author, and educator; Professor and Vice Chair, Theory & Practice of Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California The Covenant of Water, Abraham Verghese, MD; https://www.abrahamverghese.org/books/ Robert M. Wachter, MD, Professor and Chair, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter You may also like: Medscape's Chief Cardiology Correspondent Dr John M. Mandrola's This Week In Cardiology https://www.medscape.com/twic Discussions on topics at the core of cardiology and the practice of medicine with Dr Robert A. Harrington and guests on The Bob Harrington Show https://www.medscape.com/author/bob-harrington For questions or feedback, please email: news@medscape.net

In this episode, we delve into the fascinating world of some of the new AI tools and their impact on healthcare and innovation. We explore the advancements in large language models like ChatGPT and the potential they hold for transforming the way we access medical information and provide care. We discuss the experiences of Dr Keith Grimes, an expert in digital health and innovation, as he shares his insights from working at Babylon and his own consultancy. We unravel the main points, such as the importance of detailed instructions and questions for obtaining accurate results from language models. We touch upon the challenges and benefits associated with relying on AI for medical information, emphasizing the need for critical thinking and background understanding of medical concepts. Privacy considerations and the global access disparity in healthcare are also explored. Join us as we navigate the promises and concerns surrounding language-based tools, shedding light on their potential to revolutionize healthcare while navigating the ethical and practical considerations. Get ready to expand your knowledge and gain insights into the future of healthcare in the age of AI. Dr Gandalf and Keith Grimes discuss and demonstrate ChatGPT video: ChatGPT in healthcare UCSF debate on Chat GPT in healthcare chaired by Bob Wachter video: ChatGPT: Will It Transform the World of Health Care? The Wachter Report: Making IT Work: Harnessing the Power of Health Information Technology to Improve Care in England  GreatAIprompts.com The AI Revolution in Medicine: GPT-4 and Beyond Dr Keith Grimes contacts: www.curistica.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drkeithgrimes/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/keithgrimes Register for the SNUG Member's Day May 2023

Both the federal government and the World Health Organization have declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency. UCSF Department of Medicine Chair Dr. Bob Wachter welcomes that sentiment after having spent the last three years guiding hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers through the pandemic. But he says he worries about long COVID. He joins host Cecilia Lei to discuss. | Unlimited Chronicle access: sfchronicle.com/pod Got a tip, comment, question? Email us: fifth@sfchronicle.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Americans are having a hard time getting in to see a doctor, and burnout among heathcare workers is a leading reason why. The stressors of the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated a burnout crisis among physicians and nurses. But even before the pandemic, burnout was already a rampant problem for physicians and other health workers. Dr. Bob Wachter sits in for Andy and talks with AMA vice president and burnout expert Christine Sinsky about the root causes of burnout and what it will mean for all of us. Keep up with Dr Bob Wachter on Twitter @Bob_Wachter Follow Christine Sinsky on Twitter @ChristineSinsky Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium.  Support the show by checking out our sponsors! CVS Health helps people navigate the healthcare system and their personal healthcare by improving access, lowering costs and being a trusted partner for every meaningful moment of health. At CVS Health, healthier happens together. Learn more at cvshealth.com. Click this link for a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this show and all Lemonada shows: https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/  Check out these resources from today's episode:  Read the AMA's physician guide for understanding and recovering from burnout Stay up to date with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia.  For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some pediatric units are reaching capacity already and experts are warning of a possible "Tripledemic" of respiratory viruses this winter. With an early surge in RSV cases, the upcoming flu season and the possibility of a COVID-19 surge, emergency rooms are preparing for a flood of visits in the coming month. Dr Bob Wachter is sits in for Andy and talks with Dr Caitlin Rivers, and Infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins about how to protect you and your family this Thanksgiving. Keep up with Dr Bob Wachter on Twitter @Bob_Wachter Follow Dr Caitlin Rivers on Twitter @cmyeaton Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium.  Support the show by checking out our sponsors! CVS Health helps people navigate the healthcare system and their personal healthcare by improving access, lowering costs and being a trusted partner for every meaningful moment of health. At CVS Health, healthier happens together. Learn more at cvshealth.com. Click this link for a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this show and all Lemonada shows: https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/  Check out these resources from today's episode:  Read Dr. Rivers' Subtack “Force of Infection” at https://caitlinrivers.substack.com Find vaccines, masks, testing, treatments, and other resources in your community: https://www.covid.gov/ Order Andy's book, “Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics, and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response”: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250770165  Stay up to date with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia.  For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Citing dramatically reduced Covid-related hospitalizations and deaths, Governor Gavin Newsom announced this week that he's lifting California's Covid-19 state of emergency at the end of February. But as uptake of the new bivalent booster remains low, there may be reason for caution as winter approaches. That's according to UCSF's Dr. Bob Wachter, who joins us to answer your questions about case rates, subvariants, vaccines and more. Guests: Dr. Robert "Bob" Wachter, professor and chair of the Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco.

It's late October, winter is fast-approaching, and there's one big question on everyone's mind: What the heck is going on with COVID? Compounding this confusion was President Biden's declaration that the pandemic was over — despite the fact that the virus is still significantly deadlier than the flu. (This was later walked back, as the public health emergency has been once again extended through January 11.) Quite the noggin' scratcher indeed. To make sense of it all, we're joined in this episode by Dr. Bob Wachter, a professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. In the early days of the pandemic, Dr. Wachter emerged as a trusted source of accurate information related to COVID due to his matter-of-fact, no-judgement postings on Twitter. Since then, he's amassed a huge following and to this day he continues to live-tweet the pandemic play-by-play, leveraging his expertise and community of leading medical specialists in order to give the public some of the most accessible, fact-based insights anywhere on the ‘net.  Beyond talking about the current and future state of the pandemic (epidemic?), we also discuss the current precautions he's taking to remain safe, what it means be both a human being and a doctor at the same time, and the nature of public storytelling in the 21st century.  Follow Dr. Bob Wachter on Twitter at @Bob_Wachter.

Larry says that if you wear a mask you are a coward. UCSF Dr. Bob Wachter ready to dine indoors

Earlier this week, President Biden declared the pandemic over. This tracks with public opinion: most Americans have long abandoned their masks, and federal funds may soon dry up for testing, treatment, and even vaccines. Of course, this doesn't mean the virus has disappeared. In fact, hundreds of Americans are still dying each day from COVID-19, and thousands more are suffering from long COVID, a host of protracted symptoms that could lead to severe health complications down the line. On the latest episode of The Dose, host Shanoor Seervai talks to Dr. Bob Wachter about what it's like to live with COVID in 2022. Dr. Wachter, professor and chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, is one of the nation's foremost experts on the pandemic.

Millions of L.A. County residents and businesses can resume outdoor watering, after news that urgent repairs to a pipeline that brings water from the Colorado River to Southern California have wrapped up early. Reporter: Darrell Satzman, KCRW    Open agricultural burning is a useful tool for farmers, but its high particulate emissions are harmful to San Joaquin Valley residents. Air regulators plan to phase out the practice by 2025, but air quality advocates have doubts after years of inaction.  Reporters: Kerry Klein and Monica Vaughan, KVPR Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a package of bills aimed at reforming the state's cannabis regulations. This comes as the governor is directing state officials to study the health impacts of high-potency cannabis. Reporter: April Dembosky, KQED  Experts at UC San Diego studying extortion in Tijuana are saying that crime is much more rampant than previously believed. Researcher Romain Le Cour spent a year walking the streets of Tijuana, talking to business owners about what he calls, an ‘invisible crime.' Reporter: Gustavo Solis, KPBS In an interview with "60 Minutes," President Joe Biden declared that the pandemic was over. Many health experts say that's just not the case, but do agree that we may be moving to a new phase of the pandemic. Guest: Dr. Bob Wachter, Chair of Medicine, UC San Francisco  

Dr. Anthony Fauci, who guided the U.S. through the AIDS and Covid-19 pandemics, announced on Monday that he's stepping down in December as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and as chief medical advisor to President Biden. Meanwhile, CDC chief Rochelle Walensky has announced plans to overhaul the agency, telling staff in an internal video last week that it's "responsible for some pretty dramatic, pretty public mistakes" in its handling of Covid-19. We talk to UCSF's Dr. Bob Wachter about both events and hear your reflections. Guests: Dr. Robert "Bob" Wachter, professor and chair of the Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco Michael Specter, staff writer, The New Yorker; author of "Fauci"

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Covid 8/18/22: CDC Admits Mistakes, published by Zvi on August 18, 2022 on LessWrong. Two Covid-related things happened this week that I did not expect. The CDC admitted that it had failed us during the pandemic, withdrew at long last many of its remaining recommendations and promised reforms to be less academic and otherwise do better. A new paper found potential biological markers for Long Covid, claiming it can be identified via tests that match patient self-reports almost all the time. This points towards potential progress in treatment, and more generally in Long Covid being much more concretely A Thing that might exist and could be reasoned about. There are still flaws, and even without flaws there is still much work to do here. Most of the reasons not to be concerned remain, so up front: I do not think that this should substantially change anyone's level of Covid precautions. Executive Summary CDC finally fully gives up on six foot social distancing and other measures. CDC admits some failure, promises reforms that seem potentially promising. New study finds potential biological markers for Long Covid. Also I think someone said something about over the counter hearing aids? Let's run the numbers. The Numbers Predictions Prediction from last week: 650k cases (-5%) and 3,200 deaths (+0%). Results: 602k cases (-12%) and 3,183 deaths (-1%). Prediction for next week: 560k cases (-8%) and 3,200 deaths (+1%). I do not know why cases declined more than expected but result seems robust so I see no reason to expect it not to continue at least somewhat. There won't be enough time for the decline to impact deaths yet, so I'm mostly going with the null prediction there. There is not much meaningful uncertainty here. Deaths Cases Decline cuts across all four regions. We are fully into the BA.5 era with nothing on the near-term horizon to replace it, so things should be quiet for a few months at least. Physical World Modeling A guide to buying the right HEPA air filter. Bob Wachter sees no sign of anything that might replace BA.5. Thread also reminds us that it is a common mistake not to take into account the correlation between the Covid status of people who choose to be together in a group. Trevor Bedford however sees logistic growth in BA.2.75, although only with R0 ~ 1.3 (versus ~1 for BA.5) which isn't that much of an advantage for a new strain taking over. My guess is Trevor is right and BA.2.75 will displace BA.5 over time, but that we will barely even notice. Some sad news. I opened a Manifold market on whether she'll experience a rebound, to see how common people think such events are. This also brings up the question, what happens when you're against actual physical world modeling and instead blindly follow CDC rules? They do know he had Covid-19 plus a rebound within the last few weeks? That it is absurd to think that being a ‘close contact' puts him at relatively high risk for Covid-19 given that timeline? No. Of course not. This is not a man to concern himself with whether or not an action makes physical sense. Almost no children under 5 are getting vaccinated, even weaker ‘than experts feared.' Doses are being discarded due to lack of demand. This should not be a fear so much as a revealed preference. If we had approved these doses sooner, I am guessing we would have had much higher uptake, although still nothing that would have satisfied experts. At this point, people don't care enough, especially given the logistics are frequently annoying. This raises the question of why we insisted in so many crazy precautions for these same young children for so long, in ways that I strongly believe did serious damage to their development and well-being. They were never at risk and everyone knew this well enough not to bother doing much about it when finally given the oppo...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Covid 8/18/22: CDC Admits Mistakes, published by Zvi on August 18, 2022 on LessWrong. Two Covid-related things happened this week that I did not expect. The CDC admitted that it had failed us during the pandemic, withdrew at long last many of its remaining recommendations and promised reforms to be less academic and otherwise do better. A new paper found potential biological markers for Long Covid, claiming it can be identified via tests that match patient self-reports almost all the time. This points towards potential progress in treatment, and more generally in Long Covid being much more concretely A Thing that might exist and could be reasoned about. There are still flaws, and even without flaws there is still much work to do here. Most of the reasons not to be concerned remain, so up front: I do not think that this should substantially change anyone's level of Covid precautions. Executive Summary CDC finally fully gives up on six foot social distancing and other measures. CDC admits some failure, promises reforms that seem potentially promising. New study finds potential biological markers for Long Covid. Also I think someone said something about over the counter hearing aids? Let's run the numbers. The Numbers Predictions Prediction from last week: 650k cases (-5%) and 3,200 deaths (+0%). Results: 602k cases (-12%) and 3,183 deaths (-1%). Prediction for next week: 560k cases (-8%) and 3,200 deaths (+1%). I do not know why cases declined more than expected but result seems robust so I see no reason to expect it not to continue at least somewhat. There won't be enough time for the decline to impact deaths yet, so I'm mostly going with the null prediction there. There is not much meaningful uncertainty here. Deaths Cases Decline cuts across all four regions. We are fully into the BA.5 era with nothing on the near-term horizon to replace it, so things should be quiet for a few months at least. Physical World Modeling A guide to buying the right HEPA air filter. Bob Wachter sees no sign of anything that might replace BA.5. Thread also reminds us that it is a common mistake not to take into account the correlation between the Covid status of people who choose to be together in a group. Trevor Bedford however sees logistic growth in BA.2.75, although only with R0 ~ 1.3 (versus ~1 for BA.5) which isn't that much of an advantage for a new strain taking over. My guess is Trevor is right and BA.2.75 will displace BA.5 over time, but that we will barely even notice. Some sad news. I opened a Manifold market on whether she'll experience a rebound, to see how common people think such events are. This also brings up the question, what happens when you're against actual physical world modeling and instead blindly follow CDC rules? They do know he had Covid-19 plus a rebound within the last few weeks? That it is absurd to think that being a ‘close contact' puts him at relatively high risk for Covid-19 given that timeline? No. Of course not. This is not a man to concern himself with whether or not an action makes physical sense. Almost no children under 5 are getting vaccinated, even weaker ‘than experts feared.' Doses are being discarded due to lack of demand. This should not be a fear so much as a revealed preference. If we had approved these doses sooner, I am guessing we would have had much higher uptake, although still nothing that would have satisfied experts. At this point, people don't care enough, especially given the logistics are frequently annoying. This raises the question of why we insisted in so many crazy precautions for these same young children for so long, in ways that I strongly believe did serious damage to their development and well-being. They were never at risk and everyone knew this well enough not to bother doing much about it when finally given the oppo...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Covid 8/18/22: CDC Admits Mistakes, published by Zvi on August 18, 2022 on LessWrong. Two Covid-related things happened this week that I did not expect. The CDC admitted that it had failed us during the pandemic, withdrew at long last many of its remaining recommendations and promised reforms to be less academic and otherwise do better. A new paper found potential biological markers for Long Covid, claiming it can be identified via tests that match patient self-reports almost all the time. This points towards potential progress in treatment, and more generally in Long Covid being much more concretely A Thing that might exist and could be reasoned about. There are still flaws, and even without flaws there is still much work to do here. Most of the reasons not to be concerned remain, so up front: I do not think that this should substantially change anyone's level of Covid precautions. Executive Summary CDC finally fully gives up on six foot social distancing and other measures. CDC admits some failure, promises reforms that seem potentially promising. New study finds potential biological markers for Long Covid. Also I think someone said something about over the counter hearing aids? Let's run the numbers. The Numbers Predictions Prediction from last week: 650k cases (-5%) and 3,200 deaths (+0%). Results: 602k cases (-12%) and 3,183 deaths (-1%). Prediction for next week: 560k cases (-8%) and 3,200 deaths (+1%). I do not know why cases declined more than expected but result seems robust so I see no reason to expect it not to continue at least somewhat. There won't be enough time for the decline to impact deaths yet, so I'm mostly going with the null prediction there. There is not much meaningful uncertainty here. Deaths Cases Decline cuts across all four regions. We are fully into the BA.5 era with nothing on the near-term horizon to replace it, so things should be quiet for a few months at least. Physical World Modeling A guide to buying the right HEPA air filter. Bob Wachter sees no sign of anything that might replace BA.5. Thread also reminds us that it is a common mistake not to take into account the correlation between the Covid status of people who choose to be together in a group. Trevor Bedford however sees logistic growth in BA.2.75, although only with R0 ~ 1.3 (versus ~1 for BA.5) which isn't that much of an advantage for a new strain taking over. My guess is Trevor is right and BA.2.75 will displace BA.5 over time, but that we will barely even notice. Some sad news. I opened a Manifold market on whether she'll experience a rebound, to see how common people think such events are. This also brings up the question, what happens when you're against actual physical world modeling and instead blindly follow CDC rules? They do know he had Covid-19 plus a rebound within the last few weeks? That it is absurd to think that being a ‘close contact' puts him at relatively high risk for Covid-19 given that timeline? No. Of course not. This is not a man to concern himself with whether or not an action makes physical sense. Almost no children under 5 are getting vaccinated, even weaker ‘than experts feared.' Doses are being discarded due to lack of demand. This should not be a fear so much as a revealed preference. If we had approved these doses sooner, I am guessing we would have had much higher uptake, although still nothing that would have satisfied experts. At this point, people don't care enough, especially given the logistics are frequently annoying. This raises the question of why we insisted in so many crazy precautions for these same young children for so long, in ways that I strongly believe did serious damage to their development and well-being. They were never at risk and everyone knew this well enough not to bother doing much about it when finally given the oppo...

With lots of COVID treatments now available, how do you know which one, if any, is right for you? Andy found himself just as confused as the rest of us when he fell ill with the virus. Using his own experience as a case study (as well as the slightly more high profile case of President Biden), Andy seeks answers from UCSF Department of Medicine Chair Dr. Bob Wachter and UVA Critical Care and Infectious Disease Physician Dr. Taison Bell. They run through the four main treatment methods, which one works the best, and examine the link between Paxlovid and rebound cases. Keep up with Andy on Twitter @ASlavitt. Follow Dr. Bob Wachter and Dr. Taison Bell on Twitter @Bob_Wachter and @TaisonBell. Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium.    Support the show by checking out our sponsors! Click this link for a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this show and all Lemonada shows: https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/    Check out these resources from today's episode:  Read Andy's piece in the Atlantic about the three COVID developments he's holding out hope for: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/covid-variant-spread-immunity-outcome/671024/ Check out “The Boys,” a new novel written by Bob's wife, Katie Hafner: https://www.spiegelandgrau.com/theboys Find vaccines, masks, testing, treatments, and other resources in your community: https://www.covid.gov/ Order Andy's book, “Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics, and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response”: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250770165  Stay up to date with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia.  For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Bob Wachter, UCSF Department of Medicine chair, joins Mark Thompson to discuss how the latest coronavirus variant, BA.5, has become the dominant strain in the U.S.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week's panel features PJ Media journalist Megan Fox and L (SomeBitchIKnow) from SomeBitch Media. They begin with an overview of Megan's dogged pursuit of the truth regarding the rape of a 10-year-old Ohio girl whose story was dishonestly used by activists seeking to catastrophize the recent Dobbs ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. L then answers a question from chat about how to find an online record of lies, distortions, and misbehavior from leftist media, politicians, and leaders. She then presents some concerns regarding Pfizer's transparency around Paxlovid before she and Carter end the show with a discussion of conflict between Millennials, Gen Z, and older generations. L, .a.k.a. SomeBitchIKnow is the relentless researcher behind SomeBitch Media and the personification of its tagline: ”Cite your sources or GTFO.” She's helped explode mainstream narratives around the COOF, The 2020 Election, Jeffrey Epstein, and other issues. She's been banned from both Twitter and Discord, a badge she wears with pride. Follow her online at: SomeBitchToldMe.com (link in full show description) Or on Gab: @SomeBitchIKnow Megan Fox is an award-winning journalist, broadcaster, and author of Believe Evidence; the death of due process from Salome to #MeToo, and Shut Up! The Bizarre War that One Public Library Waged Against the First Amendment. Find her at PJ media (link in full show description), or follow her on social media: Twitter: @MeganFoxWriter Gab: @MeganFox The video version of this episode is available here: https://unsafespace.com/ep0817 Links Referenced in the Show: Megan's author page on PJ Media: https://pjmedia.com/columnist/megan-fox/ SomeBitch Media: https://somebitchtoldme.com Megan's article about what the Indy Star got wrong: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2022/07/18/the-indy-star-star-got-something-very-wrong-in-10-year-old-rape-victim-story-report-shows-n1613764 Megan's article about the failure of child protection services: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2022/07/18/ohio-10-year-old-rape-horror-spotlights-child-protection-agencies-and-lack-of-transparency-n1613385 The Washington Post reveals its distrubing standards for "facts": https://twitter.com/claren/status/1546963263786651648/photo/1 Smithsonian's "White Culture" poster: https://unsafespace.com/451/ep438/NMAAHC.png L's recommendation: Media Research Center: https://mrc.org/ L's recommendation: Grabien: https://grabien.com/ Bob Wachter Twitter thread on Paxlovid: https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1529182144622301184 About Narrative Dissonance "Narrative Dissonance" is a weekly series dedicated to shattering the narrative of the mainstream press. Each week, a team of panelists from alternative media sources unravel the latest misleading mainstream narratives and explore relevant stories that journalists in the corporate press ought to be covering, but aren't. Thanks for Watching! The best way to follow Unsafe Space, no matter which platforms ban us, is to visit: https://unsafespace.com While we're still allowed on YouTube, please don't forget to verify that you're subscribed, and to like and share this episode. You can find us there at: https://unsafespace.com/channel For episode clips, visit: https://unsafespace.com/clips Other video platforms on which our content can be found include: LBRY: https://lbry.tv/@unsafe BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/unsafespace/ Also, come join our community of dangerous thinkers at the following social media sites...at least until we get banned: Censorship-averse platforms: Gab: @unsafe Minds: @unsafe Locals: unsafespace.locals.com Parler: @unsafespace Telegram Chat: https://t.me/joinchat/H4OUclXTz4xwF9EapZekPg Censorship-happy platforms: Twitter: @_unsafespace Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsafepage Instagram: @_unsafespace MeWe: https://mewe.com/p/unsafespace Support the content that you consume by visiting: https://unsafespace.com/donate Finally, don't forget to announce your status as a wrong-thinker with some Unsafe Space merch, available at: https://unsafespace.com/shop

This week's panel features PJ Media journalist Megan Fox and L (SomeBitchIKnow) from SomeBitch Media. They begin with an overview of Megan's dogged pursuit of the truth regarding the rape of a 10-year-old Ohio girl whose story was dishonestly used by activists seeking to catastrophize the recent Dobbs ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. L then answers a question from chat about how to find an online record of lies, distortions, and misbehavior from leftist media, politicians, and leaders. She then presents some concerns regarding Pfizer's transparency around Paxlovid before she and Carter end the show with a discussion of conflict between Millennials, Gen Z, and older generations. L, .a.k.a. SomeBitchIKnow is the relentless researcher behind SomeBitch Media and the personification of its tagline: ”Cite your sources or GTFO.” She's helped explode mainstream narratives around the COOF, The 2020 Election, Jeffrey Epstein, and other issues. She's been banned from both Twitter and Discord, a badge she wears with pride. Follow her online at: SomeBitchToldMe.com (link in full show description) Or on Gab: @SomeBitchIKnow Megan Fox is an award-winning journalist, broadcaster, and author of Believe Evidence; the death of due process from Salome to #MeToo, and Shut Up! The Bizarre War that One Public Library Waged Against the First Amendment. Find her at PJ media (link in full show description), or follow her on social media: Twitter: @MeganFoxWriter Gab: @MeganFox The video version of this episode is available here: https://unsafespace.com/ep0817 Links Referenced in the Show: Megan's author page on PJ Media: https://pjmedia.com/columnist/megan-fox/ SomeBitch Media: https://somebitchtoldme.com Megan's article about what the Indy Star got wrong: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2022/07/18/the-indy-star-star-got-something-very-wrong-in-10-year-old-rape-victim-story-report-shows-n1613764 Megan's article about the failure of child protection services: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2022/07/18/ohio-10-year-old-rape-horror-spotlights-child-protection-agencies-and-lack-of-transparency-n1613385 The Washington Post reveals its distrubing standards for "facts": https://twitter.com/claren/status/1546963263786651648/photo/1 Smithsonian's "White Culture" poster: https://unsafespace.com/451/ep438/NMAAHC.png L's recommendation: Media Research Center: https://mrc.org/ L's recommendation: Grabien: https://grabien.com/ Bob Wachter Twitter thread on Paxlovid: https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1529182144622301184 About Narrative Dissonance "Narrative Dissonance" is a weekly series dedicated to shattering the narrative of the mainstream press. Each week, a team of panelists from alternative media sources unravel the latest misleading mainstream narratives and explore relevant stories that journalists in the corporate press ought to be covering, but aren't. Thanks for Watching! The best way to follow Unsafe Space, no matter which platforms ban us, is to visit: https://unsafespace.com While we're still allowed on YouTube, please don't forget to verify that you're subscribed, and to like and share this episode. You can find us there at: https://unsafespace.com/channel For episode clips, visit: https://unsafespace.com/clips Other video platforms on which our content can be found include: LBRY: https://lbry.tv/@unsafe BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/unsafespace/ Also, come join our community of dangerous thinkers at the following social media sites...at least until we get banned: Censorship-averse platforms: Gab: @unsafe Minds: @unsafe Locals: unsafespace.locals.com Parler: @unsafespace Telegram Chat: https://t.me/joinchat/H4OUclXTz4xwF9EapZekPg Censorship-happy platforms: Twitter: @_unsafespace Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsafepage Instagram: @_unsafespace MeWe: https://mewe.com/p/unsafespace Support the content that you consume by visiting: https://unsafespace.com/donate Finally, don't forget to announce your status as a wrong-thinker with some Unsafe Space merch, available at: https://unsafespace.com/shop

The latest Covid-19 pandemic twist is the new Omicron subvariant BA.5, which evades immunity from vaccinations, boosters and previous infections. Dr. Bob Wachter, UCSF's chair of medicine, joins host Cecilia Lei to talk about what makes this variant different, and offers guidance on future boosters and how to calculate risks. | Unlimited Chronicle access: sfchronicle.com/pod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Covid 19 cases are on the rise again as various Omicron subvariants spread. Epidemiologists warn that people may not have as much immunity to new variants compared with previous strains of the virus. It can be hard to keep track of changing guidelines such as when to wear a mask or schedule vaccine boosters. Evaluating the risk for summer travel can be confusing. We take your questions about new Covid 19 variants and discuss the latest news, research, and where we are in the pandemic. Guests: Dr. Bob Wachter, professor and chair of the Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco Dr. Yvonne (Bonnie) Maldonado, professor of Pediatrics and of Epidemiology and Population Health Chief, Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases Stanford University School of Medicine

LA is experiencing another COVID surge. On an airplane of 50 passengers or in a restaurant of 20-30 diners, there's a 90-99% chance that someone there has COVID, says Dr. Bob Wachter. The LA County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk has certified the results of the state primary election. Karen Bass is the frontrunner in the LA mayoral race, and progressive candidates beat established incumbents on LA City Council. With Roe v. Wade overturned, Meta is removing posts offering abortion medications, while Google says it'll delete location tracking data that shows a trip to an abortion clinic. Hip-hop star and actor Ice Cube co-owns a 3-on-3 basketball league called the BIG3. Now he's taking the game to the Olympics. Summer is the perfect time to bake a stone fruit or berry pie, and making a homemade pie crust is nothing to fear. 

The Electra Fire which broke out on Monday is now 10-percent contained, according to Cal Fire officials. Nearly 1000 residents in Amador and Calaveras Counties are under mandatory evacuation as 4,000 acres have burned and another 1200 structures are threatened.  Dr. Bob Wachter, UCSF Chair of Medicine says people should continue to vaccinate and get boosters because it's easy to get the newest variant. Wachter also recommends people continue to wear masks in an effort to avoid getting the B-A 5 Omicron subvariant.    University of California researchers found thousands of prisoners and prison workers were infected with COVID-19, despite the high number of those vaccinated at prison facilities across the state. Advance Notice of Termination letters have gone out to at least three dozen employees, half of them in the San Diego Police Department, for failing to take COVID tests and/or get vaccinated, for religious reasons.

For nearly a decade, the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant has been the only active nuclear plant in California -- and the state's single largest source of electricity. It's been set for decommissioning over the next three years, but recently Governor Gavin Newsom has discussed delaying its closure, to help offset possible energy shortages predicted in the next few years. Reporter: Benjamin Purper, KCBX  The city of Sacramento has adopted an emergency ordinance aimed at better protecting patients and staff at reproductive health care clinics from harassment. Reporter: Keith Mizuguchi, The California Report   In a win for California employers, the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday placed limits on a state law that lets workers sue over certain labor law violations, even if they agreed to arbitration. Reporter: Rachael Myrow, KQED  An advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration voted unanimously on Wednesday to recommend both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for young children under the age of 5. Babies, toddlers and preschoolers have been the last age group here in the U.S. without access to the COVID vaccines. If all regulatory steps are cleared, the shots could be available as soon as next week. Guest: Dr. Bob Wachter, Chair, UC San Francisco Department of Medicine

California's seven-day COVID positive test rate is at five percent, the California Department of Public Health reported on Tuesday — the highest rate since February. The news comes as COVID cases have more than tripled in the U.S. since April 1, owing in large part to the highly transmissible BA.2 omicron subvariant. With many pandemic mandates lifted but masking still “strongly recommended” in much of the state, we'll hear how you're thinking about COVID risk and discuss the latest on prevention and treatment with UCSF's Dr. Bob Wachter.

Case rates of COVID-19 is most definitely surging again in the Bay Area and across California, with positive tests and numbers jumping daily. Many patients report their infection has been much worse than the “mild cold” they had come to expect, and now there's concern about a relapse, after initial improvement. For more, KCBS Radio news anchors Patti Reising and Jeff Bell, as well as KCBS Radio political reporter and host of this segment Doug Sovern, spoke with Dr. Bob Wachter, Chair of the Department of Medicine at UCSF, whose wife is just recovering from the coronavirus. 

Dr. Bob Wachter joins Chris Merrill as he fills in for Pat Thurston to discuss the U.S. nearing one million COVID deaths. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Bob Wachter joins Chris Merrill as he fills in for Pat Thurston to discuss the U.S. nearing one million COVID deaths. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ron DeSantis cancels Disney as Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow teaches her party how to win the culture wars, Dr. Bob Wachter joins to talk about the fate of the federal mask mandate and more, and later, it's time for another round of Take Appreciator, Psaki-Doocy edition.For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast

Ron DeSantis cancels Disney as Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow teaches her party how to win the culture wars, Dr. Bob Wachter joins to talk about the fate of the federal mask mandate and more, and later, it's time for another round of Take Appreciator, Psaki-Doocy edition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now that a federal judge has tossed out the mask requirement on airplanes and public transit, Bay Area transit agencies are scrambling to figure out their mask requirements, creating a patchwork of conflicting policies for travelers. UCSF's Dr. Bob Wachter joins host Cecilia Lei to share his thoughts on the latest federal mask update and why he still recommends keeping masks on in certain public settings. | Unlimited Chronicle access: sfchronicle.com/pod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Robert M. Wachter, MD is Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). In 2021-22, the Department was ranked the best internal medicine department in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Wachter is the author of 300 articles and 6 books. He coined the term “hospitalist” in 1996 and is often considered the “father” of the hospitalist field, the fastest growing medical specialty in U.S. history. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robert M. Wachter, MD is Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). In 2021-22, the Department was ranked the best internal medicine department in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Wachter is the author of 300 articles and 6 books. He coined the term “hospitalist” in 1996 and is often considered the “father” of the hospitalist field, the fastest growing medical specialty in U.S. history. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Could digitization add another person to your exam room? Will the newest technologies being created by small businesses or by hospitals? And most importantly, will the new digital age in healthcare leave people behind? These are some big questions that Dr. Bob Wachter has the answers to. Dr. Wachter is a professor and the Chair of the Department of Medicine at UCSF. He's written six books, including one called The Digital Doctor, which was a New York Times science bestseller. He also coined the term “hospitalist” in 1996 and is considered the father of this fast-growing specialty. We can't even start to list the awards he's received, because we would run out of space here. In other words, he's the one with the answers — but he also has some questions. Do you have any thoughts? Please email us at hello@rosenmaninstitute.org. We post new episodes every Monday. “The Health Technology Podcast” is produced by Herminio Neto, hosted by Christine Winoto, and engineered by Andrew John Rojek.

Daniel sat down with Bob Wachter to talk about the power of Twitter in public health, the continued evolution of patient-centered digital transformation, the very necessary adjustments to clinical education, his personal history as the founder of the hospitalist movement, and which technologies continue to lag in our industry.

Omicron came and flipped everything we thought we knew about how to act during COVID up in the air. It also made another edition of Safe or Not Safe necessary. This time around, Andy brings in two new contestants, epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina and former guest host Dr. Bob Wachter, to answer your questions about indoor dining, outdoor transmission, and how to keep kids under five and those who are immunocompromised as safe as possible. After you finish listening, head over to Twitter and tell Andy who you think won: #TeamKatelyn or #TeamBob.   Keep up with Andy on Twitter @ASlavitt and Instagram @andyslavitt.    Follow Katelyn @dr_kkjetelina and Bob @Bob_Wachter on Twitter.   Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium.    Support the show by checking out our sponsors!   Click this link for a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this show and all Lemonada shows: https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/  Throughout the pandemic, CVS Health has been there, bringing quality, affordable health care closer to home—so it's never out of reach for anyone. Because at CVS Health, healthier happens together. Learn more at cvshealth.com.   Check out these resources from today's episode:    Check out all the organizations that In the Bubble's host profits have gone to: World Central Kitchen, Navajo & Hopi Relief Fund, Central Valley Community Foundation, Safer Foundation, Sakina Halal Grill, YWCA Minneapolis, Get Us PPE, Still Kickin, Community Foundation of Northwest Mississippi, Survivor Corps, International Rescue Committee, Black Doctors COVID-19 Consortium, and Invisible Hands Deliver   Check out all of Katelyn's posts on her Your Local Epidemiologist Substack: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/ Read more on the likelihood of getting long COVID if you're vaccinated, using data out of Israel: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00177-5 Here's more on what Israel is learning about a 4th dose of the mRNA vaccines: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/25/world/europe/israel-fourth-covid-dose.html Find a COVID-19 vaccine site near you: https://www.vaccines.gov/  Order Andy's book, Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics, and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250770165    Stay up to date with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia.    For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Omicron Post #15, published by Zvi on January 19, 2022 on LessWrong. Omicron has fully taken over, and our uncertainty about it has mostly been resolved. The Omicron pandemic is now the Covid-19 pandemic, and we're back in a kind of ‘normal mode' albeit at the top of the Omicron wave. A few weeks ago, the majority of the information and week's discussion were in the Omicron posts. This week, the vast majority are in the normal weekly post, there's only one pure Omicron post (although the Polymarket post was closely related) and it's relatively short. Going forward, after this week, my default plan is to incorporate the Omicron news and the Omicron-related predictions into the mainline weekly posts, and supplement with issue-specific posts rather than general Omicron updates. If things continue to go well, I hope to use the resulting bandwidth to start doing less speed premium writing, and more longer term analysis, both on Covid and otherwise. There's a lot I simply haven't had the time to think about let alone write out properly. Remember, this is a happy moment. We are no longer in (as much of) an emergency. Severity Thread updating what we know about severity of Omicron. Less severe in adults, less loss of taste and smell, mostly this is confirmation of the usual good news. The issue of severity in children is less clear because Covid-19 is so non-severe in children it's hard to tell the relative change. All we know is there's a lot more cases, and a lot more cases means a lot more child cases, and a lot more ‘with Covid' cases means proportionally more child cases, and none of that is particular reason to doubt that the severity effect in children is different from that in adults, but we don't know for sure because we lack the data, which results in for example the UK's report saying about severity in children we have ‘low confidence.' I agree that we are less confident here, but our baseline should mostly be that it roughly matches the adult changes, rather than a baseline of no change from Delta. But even if there is no change from Delta, that's still not high risk. Spread BA.2 is the other sub-variant of Omicron, whereas BA.1 is the one that shows up on S-gene deletion tests and it most common in the USA and UK. This thread discusses whether we should worry about BA.2, and offers this chart, you can get more at this website. If we take this at face value, it was 10% of Omicron cases on 21 December, and is about 30% of Omicron cases on 8 January, which is about two doublings in three weeks. Even with fast generations that edge is substantial, and is one reason to expect this to blunt downward trends somewhat, but the rates of decline of BA.1 are faster than this in places where BA.1 is declining, so this is unlikely to be additionally scary in those areas. If BA.2 ‘gets there first' in a given area, it would lead to a higher peak, and it makes containment by China potentially that much harder. Wastewater surveillance is available in a few places other than Boston so here's some data from California. Whereas Boston continues to be a straight line rapidly dropping down (interesting note is that the ratio of north Boston to south Boston doesn't seem very constant?), the California data represents a gentle peak that doesn't seem to be continuing to drop, in a way that doesn't have an obvious physical explanation. I'm not sure what to make of it. A basic but well-executed thread from Bob Wachter that spells out how much Covid is out there right now, and thus how much less risky activity will soon become. The difference will be extreme, although I'm not convinced it will be quite this extreme. That's a factor of 50, a 98% decline in relative risk of a given activity (e.g. microCovids), within a month. I'd be surprised if we get a 98% decline within a month, but I'd b...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Omicron Post #14, published by Zvi on January 13, 2022 on LessWrong. Important note on testing that I'm including at top of both posts today. From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid tests that use throat swabs. Here's Washington Post on that, this quote should tell you what you need to know. On one side are well-regardedexperts who argue that swabbing your throat in addition to your nose may increase the chances that a home test can detect omicron. On the other side are similarly well-regarded experts, including those at the Food and Drug Administration, who urge Americans to avoid experimenting with kits that were developed and tested using only nasal swabs. This ‘disagreement' over ‘experimentation' made me that much more confident in the conclusion I'd already reached. That is echoed by a lot of sources both personal and general, including in this heartfelt report of Bob Watcher, whose son has Covid-19 and reports back on the experience, including five days later follow-up where he's still positive and acts confused about what to do because CDC guidelines are confusing a situation that is otherwise extremely not confusing. Thus, if you want to know if you have infectious Covid-19, you need to use throat swabs. It's still not 100% sensitivity or anything, but it's a lot better, whereas nose swabs are useful but in no way all that reassuring. If you want to satisfy a testing requirement that is of course another matter. These are very different goals. This is a whole week's roundup, because I got an opportunity to impact developments more directly and needed to jump on that with my non-day-job time instead for a few days. I hope to be able to talk about it soon, but can't right now. Travel It's a very good question. Why the hell are we still doing this? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday advised Americans to avoid travel to Canada, citing “very high” levels of the coronavirus. Canada was placed under a Level 4 travel health notice — the highest category.“Because of the current situation in Canada, even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading Covid-19 variants,” the C.D.C. said. The United States has higher rates of Covid-19 than Canada right now, yet we do this thing. I simply can't take seriously, as someone who might want a physically better and healthier world, anyone who restricts travel in such ways. The CDC resumed briefings this week. This is the kind of thing they think we need to know. Spread CDC Nowcast has Omicron at 98.3%, which seems reasonable to me. New update from Bob Wachter on San Francisco. Two big notes are that there's about an even mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated Covid patients outside of the ICU (this is SF, so a large majority of people are vaccinated) and then 11 of 12 in the ICU are unvaccinated. And then there's the background rate, which is pretty astounding. Trevor Bedford estimates that about one third of London infections are being detected. I continue to think that is low, especially given the peak already happened, but it's not outside the range of possible answers. Anecdata from Michael Mina. A key question for modeling how things go is whether people are modifying their behavior. Some people definitely are, but others definitely aren't, including when they know they have Omicron. One commenter noted that their friends treated it like a cold and mostly ignored it (as opposed to what one should do with a cold, which is stay home) and then there's this. Thread defending the UK's case declines as genuine. I agree, there's no reason to think the declines aren't real. A thread from 9 January on progress in Scotland and rest of UK, pointing out things have peaked bu...

Have we reached the so-called "new normal" people keep talking about? And if so, what does that mean for you? Andy reunites with former guest host Dr. Bob Wachter who has started to let his guard down in terms of risk tolerance. They discuss why Bob feels like the time is right for that, how to think about the things that can scare us back into a more vigilant state, and Bob's thoughts for what COVID looks like long-term. This is a nuanced conversation on a complex topic that will help you navigate this uncertain time. Plus, Andy's mom joins at the start to offer up some show ideas.   Keep up with Andy on Twitter @ASlavitt and Instagram @andyslavitt.    Follow Bob @Bob_Wachter on Twitter.   Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium.    Support the show by checking out our sponsors!   Click this link for a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this show and all Lemonada shows: https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/  Throughout the pandemic, CVS Health has been there, bringing quality, affordable health care closer to home—so it's never out of reach for anyone. 

Learn more at cvshealth.com.   Check out these resources from today's episode:    Learn more about how the oral antivirals from Merck and Pfizer work and what they could mean for the pandemic: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-antiviral-drugs-merck-pfizer-pills-work-rcna5317 Here's more on the third wave hitting Denmark: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/denmark-reinstate-corona-passport-after-rise-infections-tv-2-2021-11-08/ Read more about Bob's decision-making shift: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/briefing/pandemic-return-nomal-coronavirus.html He was also featured in the San Francisco Chronicle recently about risk assessment: https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/COVID-new-normal-risks-16557732.php Find a COVID-19 vaccine site near you: https://www.vaccines.gov/  Order Andy's book, Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics, and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250770165    Stay up to date with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia.    For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

کووید کست: قسمت سیزدهم تاریخ ضبط: 13 آگوست 2021 / 22 مرداد 1400 در قسمت سیزدهم کووید کست، به مرور آخرین وضعیت واکسیناسیون در ایران و موج تازه کووید در ایران پرداختیم و به رایج‌ترین سوال‌های مطرح شده در این مدت پاسخ داده‌ایم. در بخش نخست این قسمت به وضعیت عمومی همه‌گیری در ایران و همچنین تغییرات اخیر در سیاست‌های واکسیناسیون در جهان پرداختیم. در بخش دوم که از دقیقه 31 برنامه آغاز می‌شود به تعدادی از سوالات رایج درباره کرونا و واکسیناسیون پاسخ داده‌ایم. تحقیق و اجرا: مهرنوش جعفری(twitter: @Mehrnoosh) ماهان غفاری(twitter: @Mahan_Ghafari) پوریا ناظمی(twitter: @pnazemi) موسیقی های استفاده شده: قطعات موسیقی متن فیلم همه‌گیری ساخته کلیف مارتینز قطعه کمند زلف، از آلبوم قیژک کولی ،ساخته حمید متبسم و آواز همایون شجریان قطعه رزم مشترک، ساخته پرویز مشکاتیان و آواز استاد محمدرضا شجریان قطعه سووشون، ساخته تهمورس پورناظری، آواز همایون شجریان منابع برای مطالعه بیشتر: درباره ایمنی جمعی: https://www.zeit.de/wissen/2021-06/herd-immunity-calculator-covid-end-of-pandemic - herd-immunity with vaccination: https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1407864348106690568/photo/1 - increased mortality with delta variant: https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1420974032522866690/photo/1 - drop in pfizer efficacy against symptomatic infection (mayo clinic study): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v2 - drop in pfizer efficacy against symptomatic infection (qatar study): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.11.21261885v1 - uncertainty of knowing the peak infection: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/30/2007868117?versioned=true مقاله اد یانگ در آتلانتیک درباره پایان همه‌گیری https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726 گزارش نیویورک تایمز از وضعیت بحرانی همه‌گیری در ایران https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/world/middleeast/iran-virus-delta-variant.html

Robert M. Wachter, MD is Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at UCSF, where he is the Holly Smith Distinguished Professor in Science and Medicine and the Benioff Endowed Chair in Hospital Medicine. He coined the term “hospitalist” in 1996 . In 2015, Modern Healthcare magazine named him the most influential physician-executive in the United States. Prior to becoming UCSF's ninth chair of medicine, he served as chief of UCSF's Division of Hospital Medicine. He is generally regarded as the academic leader of the hospitalist movement. Hospitalists are internists and other physicians who specialize in the care of hospitalized patients. He is a past president of the Society of Hospital Medicine and a past chair of the American Board of Internal Medicine. In January 2021, Wachter began guest-hosting the In the Bubble podcast. You can follow Bob on twitter. Patricia C Henwood MD is an Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine at Thomas Jefferson in Philadelphia. She has been leading and organizing the coronavirus response on the front lines at Jefferson and in the city of Philadelphia. Trish's experience training clinicians in Rwanda, Uganda, and other countries to use point-of-care ultrasound to answer questions about TB, and Ebola has prepared her more than most on how to handle a crisis. Trish is a graduate of the Harvard Affiliated Emergency Medicine program. During her time as a resident she founded a 401(c)3 organization PURE: Point-of-care Ultrasound in Resource limited Environments. PURE is an organization comprised of medical professionals and others dedicated to enhancing ultrasound education and use in the developing world. PURE works in concert with ministries of health and local leaders in education to develop tailored plans to train physicians and other healthcare practitioners to use ultrasound at the bedside in caring for their patients, as well as help them develop the tools to sustainably transfer ultrasound skills to other healthcare practitioners in their setting. In a 2019 NEJM perspective piece, Trish published her never before described ultrasound findings diagnostic of Ebola patients in Liberia. Follow Trish on twitter.

This week is expected to be the worst week yet for Covid-19 with the apex approaching New York and other states. As some states brace for the worst, states like California and Washington may be seeing some positive impacts of social distancing. Epidemiologist and Associate Professor at the University of Chicago Sarah Cobey and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco Dr. Bob Wachter weigh in on what to expect this week, if mitigation is working , the status of virus testing and where we go from here. With most of America working from home and using "Zoom" to have meetings with co-workers there has been a spike in hacking. Kurt Knutsson "The Cyber Guy" discusses why this is happening and how we can secure our chats. Plus, commentary by FOX Nation host Tom Shillue. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ben goes to the experts on healthcare and the economy to weigh the Coronavirus challenges from both perspectives. He is joined by Dr. Bob Wachter, Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, Dr. Scott Atlas of the Stanford University Hoover Institution, and Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor to the financial services company, Allianz. They discuss models used by governments determining whether to shut down the economy, the question of balancing economics and public health, when we can finally get back to normal, and much more. Become a Daily Wire member today — dailywire.com/Shapiro Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

While the singularity is nowhere in sight, we're inching closer to a world where more jobs are being replaced or augmented by machines—and industry sentiment ranges from praise to skepticism. In this live session, Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at UCSF, Bob Wachter and Google Ventures partner and physician-scientist Vineeta Agarwala voice their views on the divergent paths of AI.