Topological space that locally resembles Euclidean space
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Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term.Scott's book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Catastrophe-Ukraine/dp/1733647376X handle: @scotthortonshow(00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked? –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
What lives in the spaces between dreams and apocalypse? Two authors discuss their books on Indigenous media: Karrmen Crey, whose Producing Sovereignty: The Rise of Indigenous Media in Canada considers the political and cultural conditions that enabled the proliferation of Indigenous media across Canada in the early 1990s. The product of years of embedded fieldwork within Indigenous film crews in Northwestern Australia, William Lempert's Dreaming Down the Track delves deeply into Aboriginal cinema as a transformative community process. Crey and Lempert are joined in conversation here about the process of preserving community stories and enacting sovereign futures.Karrmen Crey is associate professor of Aboriginal communication and media studies in the School of Communication at Simon Fraser University. Crey is author of Producing Sovereignty: The Rise of Indigenous Media in Canada and coeditor (with Joanna Hearne) of By Their Work: Indigenous Women's Digital Media in North America. William Lempert is assistant professor of anthropology at Bowdoin College and author of Dreaming Down the Track: Awakenings in Aboriginal Cinema.REFERENCES/MEDIA:Donna's Story (film)Indians + Aliens (reality television series)The Visit (animated documentary short)Tjawa Tjawa (film)Rutherford Falls (sitcom)REFERENCES/PEOPLE:Mark MooraFaye GinsburgJesse WenteDoug CuthandDonna GambleLisa JacksonBilly-Ray BelcourtJeff BarnabyLeanne Betasamosake SimpsonCynthia Lickers-SageTaiko WaititiFoucaultCoulthardAudra SimpsonREFERENCES/OTHERMark Rifkin / Beyond Settler TimeImagiNATIVE AustraliaKarrmen Crey's Producing Sovereignty: The Rise of Indigenous Media in Canada and By Their Work: Indigenous Women's Digital Media in North America (a collection co-edited with Joanna Hearne) are available from University of Minnesota Press. Dreaming Down the Track: Awakenings in Aboriginal Cinema by William Lempert is available from University of Minnesota Press, and has an open-access edition through Manifold.
As disparities of wealth become more extreme, the well-off face mounting pressure to share in their good fortune. In this episode of The Big View podcast John Studzinski, the financier and philanthropist, talks to Peter Thal Larsen about the appeal of sharing income – and time. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode I discuss Psalms 107.
Summary: This message urges believers to embrace God's power in every circumstance, live in united humility that testifies to heaven and earth, and pray boldly with expectancy for God to do exceedingly more.Series: Ephesians - Unstoppable: The Life you Were Made To LiveTitle: Part 5 - From Revelation to AdorationDate: 10/15/25, 6:30pm, Wednesday Bible StudySpeaker: Pastor Jeff BoothApproximate Outline:00:00 - Opening & Ephesians 3:2003:50 - Power at work within us07:20 - Paul's imprisonment perspective11:10 - Gentiles: the mystery revealed14:50 - Praise in the struggle18:10 - Manifold wisdom through the church22:00 - Bold access to the Father25:30 - Kneeling, humility & prayer29:30 - Interceding for the persecuted church33:40 - Love beyond measure & doxology
The following is a quick collection of forecasting markets and opinions from experts which give some sense of how well-informed people are thinking about the state of US democracy. This isn't meant to be a rigorous proof that this is the case (DM me for that), just a collection which I hope will get people thinking about what's happening in the US now. Before looking at the forecasts you might first ask yourself: What probability would I put on authoritarian capture?, and At what probability of authoritarian capture would I think that more concern and effort is warranted? Forecasts[1] The US won't be a democracy by 2030: 25% - Metaculus Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?: 48% - Manifold If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM): 61% [...] ---Outline:(00:45) Forecasts(01:50) Quotes from experts & commentators(03:20) Some relevant research--- First published: October 8th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Prediction markets zijn in korte tijd uitgegroeid tot een opvallend fenomeen binnen de cryptowereld. Platforms als Polymarket laten gebruikers inzetten op de uitkomst van gebeurtenissen: van verkiezingen tot sportwedstrijden en zelfs Nobelprijzen. Wie gelijk krijgt, wint geld van andere deelnemers. Het is geen gok tegen het huis, maar tegen de menigte zelf. En juist dat maakt deze markten interessant, want ze brengen de theorie van de ‘wisdom of the crowds’ in de praktijk. Hoe beter de informatiepositie van alle deelnemers samen, hoe scherper de voorspelling. In deze aflevering vertelt Bram van Roelen, head of product bij investeerder Maven11, over het fenomeen van voorspellingsmarkten en de snellegroei van cryptoplatform Polymarket. Want als een markt iets met 75 procent kans inschat, wat betekent dat dan precies? En hoe betrouwbaar is die collectieve wijsheid eigenlijk? Volgens sommige analisten zijn prediction markets beter in staat verkiezingen of economische gebeurtenissen te voorspellen dan traditionele peilingen, juist omdat deelnemers financieel belang hebben bij een juiste inschatting – ze hebben zogenoemde skin in the game. Toch zijn prediction markets niet nieuw. De Amerikaanse overheid experimenteerde er ooit mee, maar cryptotechnologie heeft de deur opengezet voor een nieuwe generatie. Dankzij de blockchain zijn deze markten grotendeels transparant en kunnen ze functioneren zonder centrale autoriteit. Polymarket is daarbij de bekendste speler, met concurrenten als Manifold en Kalshi. Niet alles is echter even decentraal. Het geld staat in een wallet, maar de afwikkeling van weddenschappen – het settlen – blijft een discussiepunt. Dat gebeurt via protocollen als UMA, maar de vraag wie uiteindelijk bepaalt wat er “waar” is, blijft spannend. De groei van Polymarket gaat ondertussen razendsnel. Het bedrijf haalde onlangs twee miljard dollar op bij investeerders, onder wie de eigenaar van de New York Stock Exchange. De waardering kwam daarmee uit op acht miljard. Er gaan geruchten over een airdrop voor gebruikers, wat de populariteit verder aanwakkert. Tegelijkertijd roept de snelle groei vragen op over regelgeving: mag dit soort handel eigenlijk wel in Nederland of België? En hoe voorkom je dat mensen verslaafd raken aan het ‘gokken op nieuws’? Tot slot bespreekt de tafel hoe prediction markets zich verder kunnen ontwikkelen. Van kleine markten voor politiek en sport naar bredere toepassingen in beleid, onderzoek of risicomanagement. En hoe verhoudt zich dat tot risico’s als insider trading of zelfs manipulatie van gebeurtenissen? Co-host is Bert Slagter, analist bij kennisplatform Bitcoin Alpha. Gasten Bram van Roelen Bert Slagter Links Host Daniël Mol Redactie Daniël Mol See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing.https://chat.z.ai/Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_orgChapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Z.ai's Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized Models and Scientific Contributions (39:02) - AI Chips and Model Training in PRC (50:54) - Open Source AI and Future Predictions –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfactsThe theme of this episode derives from Lenin:“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology (12:27) - The SCO summit and its implications (20:24) - Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement (25:00) - Trump's South Asian blunder? (32:14) - The Alaska Summit and the chances of peace (40:01) - Israel's loss of popular support on both the left and the right (46:12) - Bipolarity or multipolarity? –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
On Sept 28 Yadkinville UMC is centering our worship around 1 Peter 4:8-10. Join us in the practice of lectio divinia as we prepare for worship together.If you would like to financially support this ministry of YUMC visit yadkinvilleumc.org/contribute and use the "other" option.The New Revised Standard Version, copyright ©1989 National Council of the Churches of Christ in the United States of America. Used by Permission. All rights are reserved.
Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japan, and other industrialized nations. These industries include electric vehicles, solar, high-speed rail, and consumer electronics. The book will describe the wide range of industrial policy tools used in China and their ongoing efforts in other industries, such as semiconductors and biotechnology.Kyle Chan writes a popular newsletter called High Capacity on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure, particularly in China and India.Personal website: https://www.kyleichan.com/NYT op-ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/china-us-trade-tariffs.htmlLu Feng interview: https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalismChapter Markers:(00:00) - Introduction (00:50) - Kyle's Background and Research Interests (05:51) - China vs. India: A Comparative Study of Railway Development (12:38) - The Broader Implications of Industrial Policy (37:48) - Introduction to Industrial Maximalism (38:54) - China's Manufacturing Strategy (41:33) - US-China Technological Competition (59:45) - Global Collaboration and Future Outlook Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively observes student behavior (including eye-tracking during video lessons) and adapts its presentation and testing to individual learning patterns.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Joleen Liang: Co-Founder of Squirrel AI (02:14) - Squirrel AI: Beginnings and scale (14:44) - AI vs Human Teachers (33:51) - Learning environment: tablet, headphones, human supervisors/analysts (51:11) - Challenges and Opportunities in the US Market Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley.A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on interview brain teasers.https://work-in-progress.notion.site/Max-Dama-s-Brainteasers-Study-Guide-WIP-9eb1f4b692f241d894462ddf1ab34617http://isomorphisms.sdf.org/maxdama.pdfSteve and Max discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Max Dama's Early Life and Education (02:19) - Journey into Trading and Career Development (06:56) - The High-Frequency Trading Industry (26:42) - Academic Foundations for Trading (27:50) - Computer Science in Trading (28:57) - Insights into the Trading Industry (35:49) - AI and the future of HFT Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09: Liquidity 10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi 11:08: Zubkoff tweet 12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff 12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position 13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff 14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour 16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts 18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi 19:46: Market demand for sports betting 20:24: The need to attract sports bettors 21:22: Regulatory environment 22:53: Retail traders 24:01: Gaming industry 29:48: Lawsuits 29:58: Nevada 30:37: New Jersey 31:15: Maryland 31:23: Illinois 31:46: Third Circuit 32:11: Timing 32:24 : Pritchard segment ends 32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins 32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans 32:54: Saira Rao 33:22: White women 35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking 36:06: Childhood trauma 36:57: Outsider psychology 37:34: Political biographies 38:20: UVA rape accusation 40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media 42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends 42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON TWITTER/X: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com Trade at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller's experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.https://makesunsets.com/Previous Manifold episodes on climate:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and-a-carbon-neutral-future-57https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/tim-palmer-status-and-future-of-climate-modeling-16https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/klaus-lackner-on-carbon-capture-climate-change-and-physics-40Steve and Andrew discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:35) - Andrew's Background and Swimming Career (06:37) - Journey into Startups and Y Combinator Experience (11:30) - Make Sunsets: Concept and Science (32:53) - Exploring Supersonic and Balloon-Based Solutions (33:45) - Environmental Concerns and Biodegradable Solutions (36:13) - Business Model and Cooling Credits (39:26) - Future Prospects and Climate Modeling Challenges Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Tony chats with Nima Ashtari, Founder and CEO at Manifold, they help insurance in the auto space use video analytics for telematics. From dash cams to telematics devices they can help you digest all of it. Essentially they are an aggregation and analysis tool for underwriting and claims. A very interesting company with a very interesting back story. A must listen to episode if you're into auto insurance.Nima Ashtari: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nima-ashtari/Manifold: https://www.manifold.autos/Video Version: https://youtu.be/zeghwnMskHg
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21: Maryland case Follow Star Spangled Gamblers Twitter: @ssgamblers YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7 Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, July 31. https://partiful.com/e/NIWa277GHtddC5sxSTU6 Our guest speaker this month will be former U.S. diplomat Thomas Miller, who previously served as the non-executive chairman of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, one of world's largest lottery/sports betting operators. Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Food and drink available for purchase. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
SummaryAI tools are everywhere, but who controls the power behind them? In this episode, Manifold Labs co-founder James Woodman explains how they're building a decentralized marketplace for compute using Bittensor. We talk about why AI is so expensive, how your personal data is being handled today, and what it would take to flip the script on big tech. If you've ever wondered what's really powering ChatGPT and whether there's a better way, this one's for you.Chapters00:00 Intro06:39 The Future of Compute Markets11:56 The Role of Data Privacy in AI18:12 Competing for Talent in AI23:08 Driving Down Compute Costs28:25 The BitTensor Marketplace Explained34:05 Manifold's Role in the AI Ecosystem43:13 Targeting Enterprises for AI SolutionsConnect with James and Manifold Labs:X (Twitter): James - @jameswoodmanv | Manifold Labs @manifoldlabs | Targon - @TargonComputeWebsite: https://www.manifold.inc | https://targon.comCheck out our friends at Tequila 512:Website: https://www.tequila512.comSocials: X (Twitter) | Instagram | TikTok | FacebookTo learn more about ATX DAO:Check out the ATX DAO websiteFollow @ATXDAO on X (Twitter)Subscribe to our newsletterConnect with us on LinkedInJoin the community in the ATX DAO DiscordConnect with the ATX DAO Podcast team on X (Twitter):Ash: @ashinthewildLuke: @Luke152Support the Podcast:If you enjoyed this episode, please leave us a review and share it with your network.Subscribe for more insights, interviews, and deep dives into the world of Web 3.
Manifold has its own Discord channel! https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NXThe purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A (02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics (09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary (29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities (36:48) - Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense (45:23) - Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips Links related to Q&A:Best genomic predictor for cognitive ability: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1936401098345980207Ted Postol on missile defense: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theodore-a-postol-nuclear-weapons-missile-technology-and-u-s-diplomacy-12Sputnik moment: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1873541234125316367China-US comparisons:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-shanghai-reflections-on-china-in-2024-73https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1934216476560388250Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group.Steve and Omar discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI (10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind (16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs (33:39) - The Value of AI Talent and Meta's AI Hiring Spree (42:58) - AI and The Workforce (58:02) - The Intersection of Physics and AI Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
In this week's message from Revelation 5–7, Pastor Mitchel Lee of Grace Community Church speaks about multiethnic unity.
Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China. “The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the best books about tech, period.” —Ben Thompson, Stratechery. Apple in China on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1668053373(00:00) - Introduction to Patrick McGee and his Book (03:05) - The Apple-Foxconn Partnership (07:07) - China's Industrial Transformation and Apple's Role (32:48) - Automation Challenges in Apple's Production (34:50) - Chinese Innovation and Huawei's Rise (36:15) - The Impact of US-China Trade Tensions (38:08) - Apple's Internal Struggles and Future Outlook (48:56) - Hidden gems in the book Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition?Read TP Huang on X: https://x.com/tphuang (00:00) - GODZILLA IS DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87 (00:32) - Introduction to the India-Pakistan Conflict (02:15) - Details of the Air Battle (04:40) - Expert Analysis by TP Huang (08:34) - Analysis of Air Battle Tactics and Technology (12:40) - Role of Chinese Technology (16:13) - Implications for Future Warfare (25:23) - Indian and Pakistani Military Strategies (34:34) - Unexpected Aggression: India's Miscalculation (36:52) - Pakistan's Strategic Restraint (39:19) - The Rafale Controversy: A Deep Dive (43:08) - Electronic Warfare: Myths vs. Reality (52:31) - Future of Indian Air Force: Tough Choices Ahead Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24: Interview with Chee begins 5:43: Chee's titles 6:06: Chee's background 7:26: Twitch 8:45: Gaming 14:32: Gaming and gambling 17:31: Chee's introduction to forecasting 20:53: How Chee built a Twitch following 22:46: Size of gaming community 27:28: Growth potential of prediction markets 37:39: Motivation in gaming vs. prediction markets 47:08: Manifest 2025 53:03: Lighthaven 53:39: Talks at Manifest 56:33: Early adopters in forecasting scene 57:58: Chee's hard sell on Manifest 59:52: Berkeley 1:01:34: Where to find Chee Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Register for Manifest 2025 at Manifest.is Manifest 2025 is sponsored by Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market.
The post The Manifold Works of the Lord appeared first on Waukesha City Church.
Which movies have Your Aeronauts watched the most? Who is Manifold?? Email us your questions at wordballoonspod@gmail.com
Find more information about our service and other activities on: https://www.allnationschurch.com/
Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2.Zihan's homepage: https://zihanwang314.github.io/(00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China (11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC to US (16:07) - DeepSeek, Open Source and AI Research (31:52) - Model Size and Performance Constraints (33:01) - Data Bottleneck in Pre-trained Models (34:12) - Transformer Architecture and Scaling Laws (36:30) - Efficiency in Model Training (47:44) - Chain of Experts Architecture (01:01:06) - Future of AI and Robotics Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
This week on Own It we're talking to Kelly Long from Manifold. It is a creative experiential marketing firm that aims to create experiences that engage, delight, captivate and inspire people. And inspiring, Kelly certainly is. Host Christy Hiler and Long talked about her journey, her role models and dug into the topic of the gender gap in agency ownership. Kelly is also a fellow University of Oregon grad, so it is extra special to have her on the show for Christy! You will love her insights in this episode. You can find links to Kelly Long's LinkedIn profile and the Manifold agency website in our show notes at untilyouownit.com. If you're enjoying Own It, please find it on your favorite podcast app and drop us a rating and review. Those help more people discover the show and join our community. Also, if you're a female or non-binary agency owner, or you want to own an agency someday, join our growing community at that same address … untilyouownit.com.
Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011(00:00) - Introduction (01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan (02:30) - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University (05:42) - China's Educational and Economic Transformation (14:39) - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures (41:48) - China's Auto Market (42:38) - Weaponization of Customs and Nationalism (43:20) - Impact of Tariffs on US Manufacturing (44:28) - Chaos in Global Trade and Supply Chains (49:34) - The Golden Screw Theory and Manufacturing Dependence (51:50) - Strategies for Reindustrializing the US Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
In this episode, we return to the subject of existential risks, but with a focus on what actions can be taken to eliminate or reduce these risks.Our guest is James Norris, who describes himself on his website as an existential safety advocate. The website lists four primary organizations which he leads: the International AI Governance Alliance, Upgradable, the Center for Existential Safety, and Survival Sanctuaries.Previously, one of James' many successful initiatives was Effective Altruism Global, the international conference series for effective altruists. He also spent some time as the organizer of a kind of sibling organization to London Futurists, namely Bay Area Futurists. He graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with a triple major in psychology, sociology, and philosophy, as well as with minors in too many subjects to mention.Selected follow-ups:James Norris websiteUpgrade your life & legacy - UpgradableThe 7 Habits of Highly Effective People (Stephen Covey)Beneficial AI 2017 - Asilomar conference"...superintelligence in a few thousand days" - Sam Altman blogpostAmara's Law - DevIQThe Probability of Nuclear War (JFK estimate)AI Designs Chemical Weapons - The BatchThe Vulnerable World Hypothesis - Nick BostromWe Need To Build Trustworthy AI Systems To Monitor Other AI: Yoshua BengioInstrumental convergence - WikipediaNeanderthal extinction - WikipediaMatrioshka brain - WikipediaWill there be a 'WW3' before 2050? - Manifold prediction marketExistential Safety Action PledgeAn Urgent Call for Global AI Governance - IAIGA petitionBuild your survival sanctuaryOther people mentioned include:Eliezer Yudkowsky, Roman Yampolskiy, Yan LeCun, Andrew NgMusic: Spike Protein, by Koi Discovery, available under CC0 1.0 Public Domain DeclarationPromoguy Talk PillsAgency in Amsterdam dives into topics like Tech, AI, digital marketing, and more drama...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify Digital Disruption with Geoff Nielson Discover how technology is reshaping our lives and livelihoods.Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Send us a textAbi Manifold has over 25 years of experience in Learning and Organisational Development, Abi's approach to leadership, culture, and performance is deeply rooted in empathy, authenticity, and the practical application of human insight. Her diverse background as an executive coach, psychometric profiler, and leadership facilitator gives her a rare ability to blend strategic thinking with meaningful, people-first practices. Throughout our discussion, Abi emphasized the importance of not just what people do, but how they do it—and most importantly, how it makes them feel.One of the key themes for me was how Abi highlighted that while many organizations want to do better in these spaces of leadership and cultivating a workforce that want to actually come into work and enjoy being art of something meaningful, organisations often overlook the most obvious source of insight on culture which is the experiences of their own people.ACCESS THE PODCAST LIBRARY & EVERY EPISODE, DEBRIEF & DOCUMENT CLICK HEREPODCAST GIFT - Get your FREE subscription to essential Firefighting publications HERE A big thanks to our partners for supporting this episode.GORE-TEX Professional ClothingMSA The Safety CompanyIDEXHAIX Footwear - Get offical podcast discount on HAIX HEREXendurance - to hunt performance & endurance 20% off HERE with code ffp20Lyfe Linez - Get Functional Hydration FUEL for FIREFIGHTERS, Clean no sugar for daily hydration. 80% of people live dehydratedSupport the show***The views expressed in this episode are those of the individual speakers. Our partners are not responsible for the content of this episode and does not warrant its accuracy or completeness.*** Please support the podcast and its future by clicking HERE and joining our Patreon Crew
Super. Lazy.Settle in. Start Kevin Braheny, The Way Home, The Way Home24.43 Jeffrey Koepper, Avalanche, Arctisonia45.02 Michael Sandler, Manifold, Ansatz*1.11.16 Max Corbacho, Quantum Cathedrals, Horizon Matrix *Follow the link and search for “earman178.” The album is otherwise pretty unfindable. (If you’re a better internet sleuth than I, let me know with […]
A Word of Encouragement with Vicky Mutchler is heard at 11:30 AM Central Time on Faith Music Radio. Join the Facebook group On a Positive Note to get more words of encouragement from Mrs. Vicky - https://www.facebook.com/groups/171863542874382/
There is no traffic in the world or in hell that can stop the functioning of grace!March 12, 2025 | WEDNESDAY PM Training In The WordLeroy Thompson TV FULL VIDEO LINK - Walking Wisely In The Manifold Gift of Grace https://leroythompson.tv/programs/wed031225CONNECT NOW - BECOME A PARTNER https://www.eiwm.org/partnership | or TEXT "Connect" to 225-230-2234 To GIVE/SOW click the link below! https://www.eiwm.org/give | or TEXT "Sow" to 225-230-2234TESTIMONY?Email your testimonies to victory@eiwm.orgMORE LINKShttps://linktr.ee/drleroysr#grace #wisdom #apostolic
PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/trumps-vs-bidens-policies-will-nots This debate is sponsored by @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforlibertyAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/separation-of-church-state-will-ale This debate is sponsored by @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforlibertyAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/should-transchildren-be-able-to-tra This debate is sponsored by @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforliberty LINKS TO GUESTS: https://x.com/BriannaWu @Witsit Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/government-moon-landing-hoax-will-a This debate is sponsored by @AtheistsforLiberty, an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforliberty LINKS TO GUESTS: @AlexStein99 @FTFEOfficial Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing *Cameras are a necessity *No pre-recording your intro statement beforehand At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/is-onlyfans-bad-for-society-jazmen This debate is sponsored by @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforliberty LINKS TO GUESTS: @jazmenjafarr @AlexStein99 Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1 Peter 4:7-11. Although the concept of stewardship has been largely forgotten in our current culture, Scripture says much about it. In this study, Evangelist Jacob Holman considers three Biblical truths of stewardship that can help us be "good stewards of the manifold grace of God."
Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate LINKS TO GUESTS: @1stamender @PlayingWithFireChannel @rattlesnaketv Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Beginning in the first Trump presidency and expanded under Joe Biden, the US has taken a strategy of technologically containing China through restricting its access to cutting edge semiconductors. As Chinese Whispers has looked at before, these chips form the backbone of rapid advances in AI, telecoms, smartphones, weaponry and more. Washington's aim was clear: to widen the technological gap between the two powers But has this strategy worked? Lately this has become a hot topic of debate as Chinese tech companies such as Huawei and DeepSeek have nevertheless made technical strides. Some even argue that the export controls have spurred on Chinese innovation and self-reliance. In this episode of Chinese Whispers, two very informed and smart guests debate this issue. Ryan Fedasiuk is U.S. Director of The Future Society, an independent nonprofit organization focused on AI governance, and former Advisor for U.S.-China Bilateral Affairs at the US State Department. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics at Michigan State University and a start-up founder. He also hosts the podcast, Manifold. Produced by Cindy Yu and Joe Bedell-Brill.
Beginning in the first Trump presidency and expanded under Joe Biden, the US has taken a strategy of technologically containing China through restricting its access to cutting edge semiconductors. As Chinese Whispers has looked at before, these chips form the backbone of rapid advances in AI, telecoms, smartphones, weaponry and more. Washington's aim was clear: to widen the technological gap between the two powers But has this strategy worked? Lately this has become a hot topic of debate as Chinese tech companies such as Huawei and DeepSeek have nevertheless made technical strides. Some even argue that the export controls have spurred on Chinese innovation and self-reliance. In this episode of Chinese Whispers, two very informed and smart guests debate this issue. Ryan Fedasiuk is U.S. Director of The Future Society, an independent nonprofit organization focused on AI governance, and former Advisor for U.S.-China Bilateral Affairs at the US State Department. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics at Michigan State University and a start-up founder. He also hosts the podcast, Manifold. Produced by Cindy Yu and Joe Bedell-Brill.
Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate LINKS TO GUESTS: Isabella: @IsabellaMoodyy Link to Isabella & Luke's podcast, The Grudge: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLF5VWY4OT9Mt1seqMn6Ygx_OQ5xrL_edI&si=0Nk7p4VyQM1s0j8A Amy's after-show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o8UeKmVGm4 Alex Stein: @AlexStein99 @1stamender Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebateAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Join Rabbi Joey Rosenfeld as he guides us through the world and major works of Kabbalah, Hasidic masters, and Jewish philosophy, shedding light on the inner life of the soul. To learn more, visit InwardTorah.org
Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing *Cameras are a necessity *No pre-recording your intro statement beforehand At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation 33:46: Republican Senators 46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets 46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804670342 https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed/will-pete-hegseth-be-confirmed-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804692254 https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018 Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-a-forec-OzPZILyc5C?play=true Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver—yes, the Nate Silver from 538—joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk—whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] – Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] – Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] – Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] – Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] – The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] – Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] – The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] – Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] – Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn
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