Topological space that locally resembles Euclidean space
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How does game theory work when everyone is a computer program who can read everyone else's source code? This is the problem of 'program equilibria'. In this episode, I talk with Caspar Oesterheld on work he's done on equilibria of programs that simulate each other, and how robust these equilibria are. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast Transcript: https://axrp.net/episode/2026/02/18/episode-49-caspar-oesterheld-program-equilibrium.html Note from Caspar on 2:00:06: At least given my current interpretation of what you say here, my answer is wrong. What actually happens is that we're just back in the uncorrelated case. Basically my simulations will be a simulated repeated game in which everything is correlated _because I feed you my random sequence_ and your simulations will be a repeated game where everything is correlated. Halting works the same as usual. But of course what we end up actually playing will be uncorrelated. We discuss something like this later in the episode. Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 0:00:44 Program equilibrium basics 0:14:20 Desiderata for program equilibria 0:24:35 Why program equilibrium matters 0:33:35 Prior work: reachable equilibria and proof-based approaches 0:53:26 The basic idea of Robust Program Equilibrium 1:07:47 Are ϵGroundedπBots inefficient? 1:15:06 Compatibility of proof-based and simulation-based program equilibria 1:18:32 Cooperating against CooperateBot, and how to avoid it 1:44:43 Making better simulation-based bots 2:01:22 Characterizing simulation-based program equilibria 2:21:24 Follow-up work 2:29:49 Following Caspar's research Links for Caspar: Academic website: https://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/coesterh/ Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xeEcRjkAAAAJ&hl=en Blog: https://casparoesterheld.com/ X / Twitter: https://x.com/c_oesterheld Research we discuss: Robust program equilibrium: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11238-018-9679-3 Characterising Simulation-Based Program Equilibria: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14570 Manifold open-source prisoner's dilemma tournament: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/which-240-character-program-wins-th Results of Alex Mennen's open source prisoner's dilemma tournament: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QP7Ne4KXKytj4Krkx/prisoner-s-dilemma-tournament-results-0 A General Counterexample to Any Decision Theory and Some Responses: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.00280 Cooperative and uncooperative institution designs: Surprises and problems in open-source game theory: https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.07006 Parametric Bounded Löb's Theorem and Robust Cooperation of Bounded Agents: https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.04184 A Note on the Compatibility of Different Robust Program Equilibria of the Prisoner's Dilemma: https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.05057 Episode art by Hamish Doodles: hamishdoodles.com
Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain.This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI.(00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105 (01:47) - Introduction and Welcome (05:56) - Jeremy Nixon's biography (08:48) - AGI House and collectives (43:59) - AI and Scientific Research (45:52) - Existential Risks and Doom (54:14) - AI and Human Progress (01:26:42) - Job Automation and Society (01:31:35) - Future of AI and Technology –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
In this episode of the HVAC Know It All Podcast, host Gary McCreadie talks with John Anderson, Senior Regional HVAC Technical Trainer at Sila Services and former Service Manager and Technician at Burns & McBride Home Comfort. They discuss the shift away from using manifold gauge sets in favor of digital probes and low loss fittings. John explains how modern tools can reduce system contamination, improve accuracy, and speed up processes like charging and evacuation. The conversation also explores the benefits of apps like MeasureQuick for diagnostics and training. Gary and John highlight how smart tools and good habits lead to better HVAC service and fewer callbacks. Gary and John talk about working without manifold gauge sets and how using digital probes can make HVAC work faster, safer, and more accurate. John shares how most residential jobs can be done without a manifold and explains why probes, low loss fittings, and proper charging tools are more efficient. They discuss best practices for recovery, evacuation, and charging while avoiding leaks and damage. John also explains how apps like MeasureQuick help techs understand system issues faster and more clearly. They wrap up by stressing the value of training, good habits, and using the right tools to reduce callbacks and improve system performance. Expect to Learn: Why digital probes can replace manifold gauge sets for most HVAC jobs. How to charge systems using tees, ball valves, and liquid charging adapters. The risks of overtightening service valves and how to avoid damage. Why MeasureQuick helps techs find system issues faster and more clearly. How smart tools and better habits reduce callbacks and boost performance. Episode Highlights: [00:00] - Intro to John Anderson in Part 02 [01:16] - Topic intro: Not always gauging up [03:44] - Probes vs. manifolds debate [05:09] - Digital manifolds & modern tool preferences [08:27] - Future of HVAC tools: probes with low-loss fittings [10:42] - Real example: Bluetooth probes catching tech error [13:48] - Using Measure Quick for deeper diagnostics [18:54] - Time efficiency & preventing callbacks [21:35] - Wrap-up & plans for future talk This Episode is Kindly Sponsored by: Cintas: https://www.cintas.com/ Cool Air Products: https://www.coolairproducts.net/ SupplyHouse: https://www.supplyhouse.com/tm Use promo code HKIA5 to get 5% off your first order at Supplyhouse! Follow the Guest John Anderson on: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-anderson-188093251/ Sila Services: https://www.linkedin.com/company/silaservices/ Burns & McBride Home Comfort: https://www.linkedin.com/company/burns-&-mcbride-home-comfort/ Website: Sila Services: https://www.silaservices.com Follow the Host: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gary-mccreadie-38217a77/ Website: https://www.hvacknowitall.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/people/HVAC-Know-It-All-2/61569643061429/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hvacknowitall1/
Why did God give apostles, prophets, evangelists, pastors and teachers? And, what happens when we ignore that design?
Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long Starmer can last as prime minister. Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment 0:39: Polymarket markets on UK politics 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: UK segment begins 6:02: What has gone wrong for Starmer? 11:10: Starmer's communication problem 11:31: Perceptions of Starmer as a liar 11:41: Starmer is hated 17:40: Free speech 24:36: Market odds on Starmer's departure 25:23: Policy challenges 26:46: Housing 28:10: Local elections 32:50: Policy decisions 37:12: Immigration 39:30: Process After May Elections 42:14: May election odds 52:27: How Labour would remove Starmer 54:29: Blair-Brown rivalry 56:06: Trade unions 56:26: Soft left faction 1:05:52: Starmer U-turns 1:07:51: Challengers to Starmers 1:09:15: Reaction to Labour losses in May elections 1:12:30: UK segment ends 1:12:45: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on UK politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. The next DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup will be on Thursday, January 29 from 6:00 PM - 9:00 PM at The Flying Mexican in Washington DC. All 2026 DC meetups are sponsored by Polymarket! Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed on future events across various topics. Polymarket's markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth. Learn more at Polymarket.com. Thanks to Polymarket, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Luma event page are welcomed! https://luma.com/dld19288?tk=XIracE Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, and Kalshi, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
Links:Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Futurehttps://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034Dan's 2025 annual letterhttps://danwang.co/2025-letter/Related episodes:Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome (02:14) - Breakneck - Dan's huge book (05:00) - China's Technological and Political Landscape (21:07) - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents (47:59) - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua (51:09) - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter (52:56) - China's Market Competition and Innovation (56:34) - AI, Automation, and Future Risks –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
2033 - 1 Peter 4:7-11: The world is broken in complex ways - and God doesn't respond with simple solutions or identical people. In 1 Peter 4:7–11, we discover a vision of manifold grace: God meeting manifold problems through uniquely gifted people, working together in love. As we close our 2033 vision series, this message calls us to live with urgency, love deeply, open our lives generously and steward the gifts God has placed in our hands. The future God is inviting us into won't be built by a few professionals, but by a whole church releasing grace through words and deeds, for the good of the city and the glory of Christ.Join us in person or online at 9 or 11am. Bring a friend.
Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026.Links:Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijinghttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72Previous crossover episodes:Weeks Where Decades Happenhttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happenAI, China, Tariffs, Geopoliticshttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-ai-china-tariffs-geopolitics-84(00:00) - Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103 (02:10) - US-China Economic Tensions (05:45) - Technology and Strategic Shifts (08:48) - Trump's Geopolitical Strategy (17:43) - Middle East Developments (28:41) - US-China Competition and Taiwan (33:44) - Venezuela and International Law –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Historically, the analysis of neural recordings focused on responses of single neurons recorded by single-contact electrodes. Modern electrodes with multiple electrode contacts can instead record spikes (action potentials) from hundreds of neurons simultaneously. Manifold analysis of the overall population activity of these neurons has become a critical tool for interpretation of such data. The podcast guest is a pioneer in the development and use of such analysis.
This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond.Links:Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078My talk from Reproductive Frontiers 2025 in Berkeley:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n64rrRPtCa8Previous episodes on frontier AI capabilities in math and theoretical physicshttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theoretical-physics-with-generative-ai-101https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/ais-win-math-olympiad-gold-prof-lin-yang-ucla-97Chapter Markers:(00:00) - Introduction (02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits (03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare (08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF (20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO (31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge (55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026 –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists.Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”!He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied to state-dependent modifications of quantum mechanics), work now accepted for publication in Physics Letters B after peer review. Remarkably, the main idea in the paper originated de novo from GPT-5.Links:X discussion - https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1996034522308026435Companion paper: Theoretical Physics With Generative AI - https://drive.google.com/file/d/16sxJuwsHoi-fvTFbri9Bu8B9bqA6lr1H/viewPhysics paper - https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.15935 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0370269325008111Related discussion of AI and theoretical physics with Prof. Nirmalya Kajuri (IIT) and Prof. Jonathan Oppenheim (UCL) - https://youtu.be/BRuDd3l0e3kRelated video: AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – Manifold #97 - https://youtu.be/8JeRCqNg7RcChapter markers:(00:00) - Intro: AI discussion with specialized physics at the end (03:40) - The current AI landscape for science: frontier models, Co-Scientist, and recent math breakthroughs (11:01) - Why models help and why they fail: errors, deep confabulation, and the research risk (15:54) - The Generator–Verifier workflow: how chaining model inference suppresses mistakes (23:30) - Project origin: testing models on Hsu's older nonlinear QM/QFT work (30:35) - The “GPT-5 moment”: Tomonaga–Schwinger angle appears and produces the key equation (40:35) - Wild goose chases & a practical heuristic: axiomatic QFT detour; Generator-Verifier convergence (51:44) - Referee-driven test case: Kaplan–Rajendran model, past-lightcone geometry, and verification (55:55) - Tooling & outlook: automation prototype, chaining into “supermodels,” where this is headed (59:39) - Physics slides (advanced): TS integrability, microcausality, and why nonlinearity threatens locality –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Top Stories for December 16th Publish Date: December 16th PRE-ROLL: Villa Rica Wonderland Train From the BG AD Group Studio Welcome to the Gwinnett Daily Post Podcast. Today is Tuesday, December 16th and Happy Birthday to Yosemite Sam I’m Peyton Spurlock and here are your top stories presented by KIA Mall of Georgia. Gwinnett leaders update lawmakers on voting site challenges, public safety efforts Brookwood High selected to participate in the GaDOE Gifted in Action series Gwinnett Chamber announces 2025 Business Excellence Award winners Plus, Shane Delancey the Director of the Christmas Tradition at the Strand Theatre All of this and more is coming up on the Gwinnett Daily Post podcast, and if you are looking for community news, we encourage you to listen daily and subscribe! Break 1: Kia Mall of Georgia - Sugar Hill Ice Skating Rink STORY 1: Gwinnett leaders update lawmakers on voting site challenges, public safety efforts Gwinnett County is cutting polling locations—down from 156 to 144—and the reason? Insurance headaches. Churches and private organizations, once reliable voting sites, are pulling out, according to Elections Supervisor Zach Manifold. Manifold shared the news during a meeting with Gwinnett’s state lawmakers, where elections and public safety took center stage. Chairwoman Nicole Love Hendrickson emphasized collaboration: “When local and state leaders work together, we serve our residents better.” On the safety side, Police Chief J.D. McClure highlighted staffing gains and a futuristic twist—drones as “first eyes” on crime scenes. Progress, but challenges remain. STORY 2: Brookwood High selected to participate in the GaDOE Gifted in Action series Brookwood High just got a big nod from the Georgia Department of Education—it’s been featured in the GaDOE Gifted in Action series, a webinar collection for educators working with gifted and talented students. Eric Rovie’s AP Literature and Language classes were in the spotlight, with the GaDOE team recording his students in action. Rovie’s approach? Open discussions, tough questions, and a classroom built on trust. Gifted education isn’t just about acceleration, says Dr. Keena Ryals-Jenkins of GCPS—it’s about sparking curiosity and pushing boundaries. STORY 3: Gwinnett Chamber announces 2025 Business Excellence Award winners The Gwinnett Chamber’s Business Excellence Awards lit up the John Maxwell Leadership Center last week, celebrating the movers, shakers, and innovators shaping Gwinnett’s business scene. Nick Masino, Chamber President & CEO, kicked things off, followed by keynote speaker Darryll Stinson—a TEDx speaker and leadership guru—who delivered a heartfelt, no-fluff message about trust, growth, and greatness. “It’s about elevating results,” he said, leaving the room buzzing. Masino summed it up: “When our businesses thrive, so does our region.” Winners spanned 10 categories, from Spectrum Autism Support Group (Community Contributor) to iS3 Tech Services’ Adam Hammock (Founder Award). A night of well-earned applause. We have opportunities for sponsors to get great engagement on these shows. Call 770.874.3200 for more info. We’ll be right back Break 2: Ingles Markets - DTL HOLIDAY STORY 4: Gwinnett road closures Dec. 13-19 Heads up, Gwinnett drivers—here’s what’s happening on the roads this week (Dec. 13–19). Expect closures, detours, and delays, all courtesy of construction, utility work, and improvements. Big ones to note: **Ballpark Lane** is closed through April 2026. Detours are in place, but, yeah, plan extra time. Other spots with intermittent lane closures include **Beaver Ruin Road**, **Sugarloaf Parkway**, and **Rockbridge Road**—plus about 30 more. For details or detour routes, contact the Gwinnett DOT. STORY 5: ART BEAT: Players Guild at Sugar Hill to stage 'The Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder' Looking for a darkly funny way to kick off the new year? *The Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder* hits Sugar Hill’s Eagle Theatre stage Feb. 6–15, promising six performances of murder, mayhem, and music. The story? Monty Navarro, a broke clerk, discovers he’s ninth in line to inherit a fancy title and fortune. His solution? Start “removing” the D’Ysquith family members ahead of him. It’s twisted, hilarious, and based on the 1907 novel *Israel Rank*. JD Touchton stars as Monty, marking his first musical role in four years. Tickets? Boxoffice@pgatsh.com. Now, here is Shane Delancey the Director of the Christmas Tradition at the Strand Theatre - Shane Delancey - Break 3: THE STRAND HOLIDAY STORY 6: Mill Creek Grad Holden Cammarata Runs 100-Mile Day for Williams Syndrome Holden Cammarata had a wild dream—run 100 miles in a single day. Not a marathon, not two, but *four*. The 2025 Mill Creek grad and Georgia Tech freshman had always pushed himself, running cross country in high school and now with Georgia Tech’s club team. But this? This was next level. “It’s a big jump,” he admitted. “With my foot surgery coming up, I figured this might be my last shot.” But Holden didn’t just run for himself. He ran for Molly Kate Cloer, the little sister of his high school teammate Tyler, who has Williams Syndrome. Inspired by their family, he turned his grueling goal into a fundraiser, raising over $8,000 for the cause. The run itself? Brutal. By mile 60, his injured foot was screaming. By mile 80, the park closed, forcing him to finish in a church parking lot. Every step hurt. But his parents, old teammates, and even strangers showed up to cheer him on, some running alongside him. After 25 hours, 33 minutes, and 32 seconds, Holden crossed the finish line—exhausted, in pain, but surrounded by love. STORY 7: Northside Hospital Gwinnett named one of nation's best for maternity care Northside Hospital Gwinnett just got some big news—it’s officially one of the best places in the country to have a baby, according to *U.S. News & World Report*. The hospital earned a “High Performing” rating for maternity care, putting it in the top 10% nationwide for uncomplicated pregnancies. Pretty impressive, right? Last year alone, they delivered 4,245 babies. Northside Gwinnett also scored high marks in 15 other areas, from heart surgery to stroke care. When you’re here, you’re family. We’ll have closing comments after this Break 4: GCPS Hiring Signoff – Thanks again for hanging out with us on today’s Gwinnett Daily Post Podcast. If you enjoy these shows, we encourage you to check out our other offerings, like the Cherokee Tribune Ledger podcast, the Marietta Daily Journal, or the Community Podcast for Rockdale Newton and Morgan Counties. Read more about all our stories and get other great content at www.gwinnettdailypost.com Did you know over 50% of Americans listen to podcasts weekly? Giving you important news about our community and telling great stories are what we do. Make sure you join us for our next episode and be sure to share this podcast on social media with your friends and family. Add us to your Alexa Flash Briefing or your Google Home Briefing and be sure to like, follow, and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Produced by the BG Podcast Network Show Sponsors: www.ingles-markets.com www.kiamallofga.com Ice Rink – Downtown Sugar Hill Holiday Celebration 2025 – City of Sugar Hill Team GCPS https://www.downtownlawrencevillega.com/ NewsPodcast, CurrentEvents, TopHeadlines, BreakingNews, PodcastDiscussion, PodcastNews, InDepthAnalysis, NewsAnalysis, PodcastTrending, WorldNews, LocalNews, GlobalNews, PodcastInsights, NewsBrief, PodcastUpdate, NewsRoundup, WeeklyNews, DailyNews, PodcastInterviews, HotTopics, PodcastOpinions, InvestigativeJournalism, BehindTheHeadlines, PodcastMedia, NewsStories, PodcastReports, JournalismMatters, PodcastPerspectives, NewsCommentary, PodcastListeners, NewsPodcastCommunity, NewsSource, PodcastCuration, WorldAffairs, PodcastUpdates, AudioNews, PodcastJournalism, EmergingStories, NewsFlash, PodcastConversations See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons. Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillalamarri 1:07: Chougule introduces Glidden interview with Miller 1:46: Parallels between lotteries and prediction markets 2:47: Intro ends 4:48: Pillalamarri segment begins 5:12: Kylasa (@aenews) side bet with Mehndiratta (@tenad0me) 5:51: Odds on nuclear war 6:01: Anti-nuclear norms 6:55: Why India and Pakistan haven't used nukes 7:34: Terrorism vs. nukes 8:46: India's no first use doctrine 10:05: Variance 10:18: Anthropic effects 10:52: Nuclear taboos 10:58: Why Pakistan won't transfer nukes 11:36: Polymarket market on nuclear detonation 11:45: Segment ends 12:00: Interview with Miller begins 12:17: Miller's background 12:46: Rumsfeld 14:27: Chougule 14:44: Washingtonian profile of Chougule 15:06: Intralot 15:26: Lotteries offering sports betting 15:58: Prediction markets 16:46: Business of prediction markets 17:02: Amazon 18:36: How Miller got into lottery business 19:43: Lottery expansion into sports betting 20:46: Women 21:19: Lottery regulation 21:44: How lotteries gained acceptance 24:10: Demographic of prediction market users 25:02: Forecasting as an ambassador 26:07: Black swan events 26:20: History 26:30: Intelligence before Russian invasion of Ukraine 28:59: Data in diplomacy 29:47: Iraq War 31:23: AI 32:04: Prediction markets for diplomacy 37:09: Using prediction markets to anticipate bad events 37:36: Prediction markets for resource allocation decisions 37:52: Medical research 39:43: Segment ends 39:57: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetups Trade on markets related to nuclear weapons and war at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for the final DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup on Wednesday, December 17 from 6-9pm at the Flying Mexican on Capitol Hill, close to the Eastern Market metro station (blue/orange lines), NOT our usual Rocklands BBQ location in Arlington. Be sure to show up on the correct side of the river this month! Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Thanks to our sponsor, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
S.366 Stewards of The Manifold Grace of God by Apostle Grace Lubega
S.366 Stewards of The Manifold Grace of God by Apostle Grace Lubega
Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has brokenimportant stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussainreports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeliintelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of othercountries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, veryelite level.”Links:Drop Site News series on Epstein and Israelhttps://www.dropsitenews.com/s/epstein-and-israelFormer Israeli spy Ari Ben Menashe on Jeffrey Epsteinhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1994046737040712144(01:08) - Introduction (02:20) - The Mission of Drop Site News (06:00) - Epstein Emails (15:28) - Epstein connections and elite power (35:48) - Epstein and intel agencies (39:54) - Ari Ben Menashe and the Iran Contra Affair (42:21) - Media Censorship and Political Implications (47:33) - The Future of Epstein Investigations –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Konuğumuz Gürbey Hiz ile doktora çalışmasının konusu olan, Servet-i Fünun dergisindeki kent anlatıları üzerine konuşuyoruz. 1891-1944 yılları arasında yayımlanan Servet-i Fünun, pek çok önemli edebiyatçıyı tanınır ettiğinden öncelikle edebiyatı akla getirse de aslında döneminin bilimsel gelişmelerini halkın anlayabileceği bir dille aktarmak amacıyla kurulmuş bir resimli dergi. Bu nedenle hem dönemi için çok üstün teknolojilerle yüksek kalitede üretilmiş bol görsel içeriyor hem de modern kentlere dair pek çok yeniliğe sık sık yer veriyor. Böyle bir ilgiyle Gürbey Hiz, doktora çalışmasında 1891-1910 yılları arasında yayımlanan sayılardan kent anlatılarını sahne, panayır, sergi gibi farklı temalar üzerinden inceledi, sonrasında bu araştırma genişleyerek Manifold'da "A'dan Z'ye Servet-i Fünun Manzaraları" başlıklı bir yazı dizisine dönüştü. Araştırmadan yola çıkarak ürettiği işler YUNT'ta 11 Ekim tarihinde açılan VarYok sergisinde yer alıyor; sergi 16 Ağustos 2026 tarihine kadar ziyaret edilebilir.
Konuğumuz Gürbey Hiz ile doktora çalışmasının konusu olan, Servet-i Fünun dergisindeki kent anlatıları üzerine konuşuyoruz. 1891-1944 yılları arasında yayımlanan Servet-i Fünun, pek çok önemli edebiyatçıyı tanınır ettiğinden öncelikle edebiyatı akla getirse de aslında döneminin bilimsel gelişmelerini halkın anlayabileceği bir dille aktarmak amacıyla kurulmuş bir resimli dergi. Bu nedenle hem dönemi için çok üstün teknolojilerle yüksek kalitede üretilmiş bol görsel içeriyor hem de modern kentlere dair pek çok yeniliğe sık sık yer veriyor. Böyle bir ilgiyle Gürbey Hiz, doktora çalışmasında 1891-1910 yılları arasında yayımlanan sayılardan kent anlatılarını sahne, panayır, sergi gibi farklı temalar üzerinden inceledi, sonrasında bu araştırma genişleyerek Manifold'da "A'dan Z'ye Servet-i Fünun Manzaraları" başlıklı bir yazı dizisine dönüştü. Araştırmadan yola çıkarak ürettiği işler YUNT'ta 11 Ekim tarihinde açılan VarYok sergisinde yer alıyor; sergi 16 Ağustos 2026 tarihine kadar ziyaret edilebilir.
Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50: Indian hardliners 20:51: Pakistan's hand 25:18: China 26:38: Saudi Arabia 27:50: Munir 28:14: Pakistani military 29:06: India's point of view 30:01: Hardline Indian policy 32:50: Timing of an Indian strike 35:21: Market rules on "strike" 36:33: No Indian ground forces 37:06: Indian strike in 2027 Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299 The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company. This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn't, and what we could do to scale next time. A BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/VoLn8aAh4pabxrxczwiz Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy, and society in China, most of which have since come true.Jian and Steve discuss the origins of the industrial party movement (discussed in an earlier episode with Kyle Chan), which culminated in the "industrial maximalism" view of development adopted by the PRC government. They also discuss the development of supply chains in China, and the role that US sanctions had in accelerating the Chinese semiconductor industry.Kyle Chan episode:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/kyle-chan-on-the-future-of-us-china-competition-94Chinese industrial maximalism: https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism(00:00) - Introduction (00:49) - Jian Gaokao score was 23rd in all of Fujian = Econ at Beida, not Genomics! (05:21) - China's Industrial Policy and Innovation (24:19) - Domestic supply chain strategy; How Huawei became a national champion due to US sanctions (34:13) - Venture Capital in China (36:13) - Hard Tech Investments (37:40) - Regulations of Tech Giants (44:28) - Future of China Technological Development –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term.Scott's book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Catastrophe-Ukraine/dp/1733647376X handle: @scotthortonshow(00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked? –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
As disparities of wealth become more extreme, the well-off face mounting pressure to share in their good fortune. In this episode of The Big View podcast John Studzinski, the financier and philanthropist, talks to Peter Thal Larsen about the appeal of sharing income – and time. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode I discuss Psalms 107.
Summary: This message urges believers to embrace God's power in every circumstance, live in united humility that testifies to heaven and earth, and pray boldly with expectancy for God to do exceedingly more.Series: Ephesians - Unstoppable: The Life you Were Made To LiveTitle: Part 5 - From Revelation to AdorationDate: 10/15/25, 6:30pm, Wednesday Bible StudySpeaker: Pastor Jeff BoothApproximate Outline:00:00 - Opening & Ephesians 3:2003:50 - Power at work within us07:20 - Paul's imprisonment perspective11:10 - Gentiles: the mystery revealed14:50 - Praise in the struggle18:10 - Manifold wisdom through the church22:00 - Bold access to the Father25:30 - Kneeling, humility & prayer29:30 - Interceding for the persecuted church33:40 - Love beyond measure & doxology
The following is a quick collection of forecasting markets and opinions from experts which give some sense of how well-informed people are thinking about the state of US democracy. This isn't meant to be a rigorous proof that this is the case (DM me for that), just a collection which I hope will get people thinking about what's happening in the US now. Before looking at the forecasts you might first ask yourself: What probability would I put on authoritarian capture?, and At what probability of authoritarian capture would I think that more concern and effort is warranted? Forecasts[1] The US won't be a democracy by 2030: 25% - Metaculus Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?: 48% - Manifold If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM): 61% [...] ---Outline:(00:45) Forecasts(01:50) Quotes from experts & commentators(03:20) Some relevant research--- First published: October 8th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Prediction markets zijn in korte tijd uitgegroeid tot een opvallend fenomeen binnen de cryptowereld. Platforms als Polymarket laten gebruikers inzetten op de uitkomst van gebeurtenissen: van verkiezingen tot sportwedstrijden en zelfs Nobelprijzen. Wie gelijk krijgt, wint geld van andere deelnemers. Het is geen gok tegen het huis, maar tegen de menigte zelf. En juist dat maakt deze markten interessant, want ze brengen de theorie van de ‘wisdom of the crowds’ in de praktijk. Hoe beter de informatiepositie van alle deelnemers samen, hoe scherper de voorspelling. In deze aflevering vertelt Bram van Roelen, head of product bij investeerder Maven11, over het fenomeen van voorspellingsmarkten en de snellegroei van cryptoplatform Polymarket. Want als een markt iets met 75 procent kans inschat, wat betekent dat dan precies? En hoe betrouwbaar is die collectieve wijsheid eigenlijk? Volgens sommige analisten zijn prediction markets beter in staat verkiezingen of economische gebeurtenissen te voorspellen dan traditionele peilingen, juist omdat deelnemers financieel belang hebben bij een juiste inschatting – ze hebben zogenoemde skin in the game. Toch zijn prediction markets niet nieuw. De Amerikaanse overheid experimenteerde er ooit mee, maar cryptotechnologie heeft de deur opengezet voor een nieuwe generatie. Dankzij de blockchain zijn deze markten grotendeels transparant en kunnen ze functioneren zonder centrale autoriteit. Polymarket is daarbij de bekendste speler, met concurrenten als Manifold en Kalshi. Niet alles is echter even decentraal. Het geld staat in een wallet, maar de afwikkeling van weddenschappen – het settlen – blijft een discussiepunt. Dat gebeurt via protocollen als UMA, maar de vraag wie uiteindelijk bepaalt wat er “waar” is, blijft spannend. De groei van Polymarket gaat ondertussen razendsnel. Het bedrijf haalde onlangs twee miljard dollar op bij investeerders, onder wie de eigenaar van de New York Stock Exchange. De waardering kwam daarmee uit op acht miljard. Er gaan geruchten over een airdrop voor gebruikers, wat de populariteit verder aanwakkert. Tegelijkertijd roept de snelle groei vragen op over regelgeving: mag dit soort handel eigenlijk wel in Nederland of België? En hoe voorkom je dat mensen verslaafd raken aan het ‘gokken op nieuws’? Tot slot bespreekt de tafel hoe prediction markets zich verder kunnen ontwikkelen. Van kleine markten voor politiek en sport naar bredere toepassingen in beleid, onderzoek of risicomanagement. En hoe verhoudt zich dat tot risico’s als insider trading of zelfs manipulatie van gebeurtenissen? Co-host is Bert Slagter, analist bij kennisplatform Bitcoin Alpha. Gasten Bram van Roelen Bert Slagter Links Host Daniël Mol Redactie Daniël Mol See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing.https://chat.z.ai/Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_orgChapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Z.ai's Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized Models and Scientific Contributions (39:02) - AI Chips and Model Training in PRC (50:54) - Open Source AI and Future Predictions –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfactsThe theme of this episode derives from Lenin:“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology (12:27) - The SCO summit and its implications (20:24) - Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement (25:00) - Trump's South Asian blunder? (32:14) - The Alaska Summit and the chances of peace (40:01) - Israel's loss of popular support on both the left and the right (46:12) - Bipolarity or multipolarity? –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
On Sept 28 Yadkinville UMC is centering our worship around 1 Peter 4:8-10. Join us in the practice of lectio divinia as we prepare for worship together.If you would like to financially support this ministry of YUMC visit yadkinvilleumc.org/contribute and use the "other" option.The New Revised Standard Version, copyright ©1989 National Council of the Churches of Christ in the United States of America. Used by Permission. All rights are reserved.
Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japan, and other industrialized nations. These industries include electric vehicles, solar, high-speed rail, and consumer electronics. The book will describe the wide range of industrial policy tools used in China and their ongoing efforts in other industries, such as semiconductors and biotechnology.Kyle Chan writes a popular newsletter called High Capacity on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure, particularly in China and India.Personal website: https://www.kyleichan.com/NYT op-ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/china-us-trade-tariffs.htmlLu Feng interview: https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalismChapter Markers:(00:00) - Introduction (00:50) - Kyle's Background and Research Interests (05:51) - China vs. India: A Comparative Study of Railway Development (12:38) - The Broader Implications of Industrial Policy (37:48) - Introduction to Industrial Maximalism (38:54) - China's Manufacturing Strategy (41:33) - US-China Technological Competition (59:45) - Global Collaboration and Future Outlook Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively observes student behavior (including eye-tracking during video lessons) and adapts its presentation and testing to individual learning patterns.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Joleen Liang: Co-Founder of Squirrel AI (02:14) - Squirrel AI: Beginnings and scale (14:44) - AI vs Human Teachers (33:51) - Learning environment: tablet, headphones, human supervisors/analysts (51:11) - Challenges and Opportunities in the US Market Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley.A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on interview brain teasers.https://work-in-progress.notion.site/Max-Dama-s-Brainteasers-Study-Guide-WIP-9eb1f4b692f241d894462ddf1ab34617http://isomorphisms.sdf.org/maxdama.pdfSteve and Max discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Max Dama's Early Life and Education (02:19) - Journey into Trading and Career Development (06:56) - The High-Frequency Trading Industry (26:42) - Academic Foundations for Trading (27:50) - Computer Science in Trading (28:57) - Insights into the Trading Industry (35:49) - AI and the future of HFT Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09: Liquidity 10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi 11:08: Zubkoff tweet 12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff 12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position 13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff 14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour 16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts 18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi 19:46: Market demand for sports betting 20:24: The need to attract sports bettors 21:22: Regulatory environment 22:53: Retail traders 24:01: Gaming industry 29:48: Lawsuits 29:58: Nevada 30:37: New Jersey 31:15: Maryland 31:23: Illinois 31:46: Third Circuit 32:11: Timing 32:24 : Pritchard segment ends 32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins 32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans 32:54: Saira Rao 33:22: White women 35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking 36:06: Childhood trauma 36:57: Outsider psychology 37:34: Political biographies 38:20: UVA rape accusation 40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media 42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends 42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON TWITTER/X: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com Trade at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller's experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.https://makesunsets.com/Previous Manifold episodes on climate:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and-a-carbon-neutral-future-57https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/tim-palmer-status-and-future-of-climate-modeling-16https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/klaus-lackner-on-carbon-capture-climate-change-and-physics-40Steve and Andrew discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:35) - Andrew's Background and Swimming Career (06:37) - Journey into Startups and Y Combinator Experience (11:30) - Make Sunsets: Concept and Science (32:53) - Exploring Supersonic and Balloon-Based Solutions (33:45) - Environmental Concerns and Biodegradable Solutions (36:13) - Business Model and Cooling Credits (39:26) - Future Prospects and Climate Modeling Challenges Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Tony chats with Nima Ashtari, Founder and CEO at Manifold, they help insurance in the auto space use video analytics for telematics. From dash cams to telematics devices they can help you digest all of it. Essentially they are an aggregation and analysis tool for underwriting and claims. A very interesting company with a very interesting back story. A must listen to episode if you're into auto insurance.Nima Ashtari: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nima-ashtari/Manifold: https://www.manifold.autos/Video Version: https://youtu.be/zeghwnMskHg
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21: Maryland case Follow Star Spangled Gamblers Twitter: @ssgamblers YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7 Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, July 31. https://partiful.com/e/NIWa277GHtddC5sxSTU6 Our guest speaker this month will be former U.S. diplomat Thomas Miller, who previously served as the non-executive chairman of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, one of world's largest lottery/sports betting operators. Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Food and drink available for purchase. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
SummaryAI tools are everywhere, but who controls the power behind them? In this episode, Manifold Labs co-founder James Woodman explains how they're building a decentralized marketplace for compute using Bittensor. We talk about why AI is so expensive, how your personal data is being handled today, and what it would take to flip the script on big tech. If you've ever wondered what's really powering ChatGPT and whether there's a better way, this one's for you.Chapters00:00 Intro06:39 The Future of Compute Markets11:56 The Role of Data Privacy in AI18:12 Competing for Talent in AI23:08 Driving Down Compute Costs28:25 The BitTensor Marketplace Explained34:05 Manifold's Role in the AI Ecosystem43:13 Targeting Enterprises for AI SolutionsConnect with James and Manifold Labs:X (Twitter): James - @jameswoodmanv | Manifold Labs @manifoldlabs | Targon - @TargonComputeWebsite: https://www.manifold.inc | https://targon.comCheck out our friends at Tequila 512:Website: https://www.tequila512.comSocials: X (Twitter) | Instagram | TikTok | FacebookTo learn more about ATX DAO:Check out the ATX DAO websiteFollow @ATXDAO on X (Twitter)Subscribe to our newsletterConnect with us on LinkedInJoin the community in the ATX DAO DiscordConnect with the ATX DAO Podcast team on X (Twitter):Ash: @ashinthewildLuke: @Luke152Support the Podcast:If you enjoyed this episode, please leave us a review and share it with your network.Subscribe for more insights, interviews, and deep dives into the world of Web 3.
Manifold has its own Discord channel! https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NXThe purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A (02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics (09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary (29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities (36:48) - Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense (45:23) - Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips Links related to Q&A:Best genomic predictor for cognitive ability: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1936401098345980207Ted Postol on missile defense: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theodore-a-postol-nuclear-weapons-missile-technology-and-u-s-diplomacy-12Sputnik moment: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1873541234125316367China-US comparisons:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-shanghai-reflections-on-china-in-2024-73https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1934216476560388250Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
In this week's message from Revelation 5–7, Pastor Mitchel Lee of Grace Community Church speaks about multiethnic unity.
David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24: Interview with Chee begins 5:43: Chee's titles 6:06: Chee's background 7:26: Twitch 8:45: Gaming 14:32: Gaming and gambling 17:31: Chee's introduction to forecasting 20:53: How Chee built a Twitch following 22:46: Size of gaming community 27:28: Growth potential of prediction markets 37:39: Motivation in gaming vs. prediction markets 47:08: Manifest 2025 53:03: Lighthaven 53:39: Talks at Manifest 56:33: Early adopters in forecasting scene 57:58: Chee's hard sell on Manifest 59:52: Berkeley 1:01:34: Where to find Chee Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Register for Manifest 2025 at Manifest.is Manifest 2025 is sponsored by Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market.
The post The Manifold Works of the Lord appeared first on Waukesha City Church.
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This week on Own It we're talking to Kelly Long from Manifold. It is a creative experiential marketing firm that aims to create experiences that engage, delight, captivate and inspire people. And inspiring, Kelly certainly is. Host Christy Hiler and Long talked about her journey, her role models and dug into the topic of the gender gap in agency ownership. Kelly is also a fellow University of Oregon grad, so it is extra special to have her on the show for Christy! You will love her insights in this episode. You can find links to Kelly Long's LinkedIn profile and the Manifold agency website in our show notes at untilyouownit.com. If you're enjoying Own It, please find it on your favorite podcast app and drop us a rating and review. Those help more people discover the show and join our community. Also, if you're a female or non-binary agency owner, or you want to own an agency someday, join our growing community at that same address … untilyouownit.com.
In this episode, we return to the subject of existential risks, but with a focus on what actions can be taken to eliminate or reduce these risks.Our guest is James Norris, who describes himself on his website as an existential safety advocate. The website lists four primary organizations which he leads: the International AI Governance Alliance, Upgradable, the Center for Existential Safety, and Survival Sanctuaries.Previously, one of James' many successful initiatives was Effective Altruism Global, the international conference series for effective altruists. He also spent some time as the organizer of a kind of sibling organization to London Futurists, namely Bay Area Futurists. He graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with a triple major in psychology, sociology, and philosophy, as well as with minors in too many subjects to mention.Selected follow-ups:James Norris websiteUpgrade your life & legacy - UpgradableThe 7 Habits of Highly Effective People (Stephen Covey)Beneficial AI 2017 - Asilomar conference"...superintelligence in a few thousand days" - Sam Altman blogpostAmara's Law - DevIQThe Probability of Nuclear War (JFK estimate)AI Designs Chemical Weapons - The BatchThe Vulnerable World Hypothesis - Nick BostromWe Need To Build Trustworthy AI Systems To Monitor Other AI: Yoshua BengioInstrumental convergence - WikipediaNeanderthal extinction - WikipediaMatrioshka brain - WikipediaWill there be a 'WW3' before 2050? - Manifold prediction marketExistential Safety Action PledgeAn Urgent Call for Global AI Governance - IAIGA petitionBuild your survival sanctuaryOther people mentioned include:Eliezer Yudkowsky, Roman Yampolskiy, Yan LeCun, Andrew NgMusic: Spike Protein, by Koi Discovery, available under CC0 1.0 Public Domain DeclarationPromoguy Talk PillsAgency in Amsterdam dives into topics like Tech, AI, digital marketing, and more drama...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify Digital Disruption with Geoff Nielson Discover how technology is reshaping our lives and livelihoods.Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
A Word of Encouragement with Vicky Mutchler is heard at 11:30 AM Central Time on Faith Music Radio. Join the Facebook group On a Positive Note to get more words of encouragement from Mrs. Vicky - https://www.facebook.com/groups/171863542874382/
There is no traffic in the world or in hell that can stop the functioning of grace!March 12, 2025 | WEDNESDAY PM Training In The WordLeroy Thompson TV FULL VIDEO LINK - Walking Wisely In The Manifold Gift of Grace https://leroythompson.tv/programs/wed031225CONNECT NOW - BECOME A PARTNER https://www.eiwm.org/partnership | or TEXT "Connect" to 225-230-2234 To GIVE/SOW click the link below! https://www.eiwm.org/give | or TEXT "Sow" to 225-230-2234TESTIMONY?Email your testimonies to victory@eiwm.orgMORE LINKShttps://linktr.ee/drleroysr#grace #wisdom #apostolic
Join Rabbi Joey Rosenfeld as he guides us through the world and major works of Kabbalah, Hasidic masters, and Jewish philosophy, shedding light on the inner life of the soul. To learn more, visit InwardTorah.org
A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver—yes, the Nate Silver from 538—joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk—whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] – Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] – Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] – Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] – Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] – The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] – Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] – The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] – Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] – Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn
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