Podcasts about Manifold

In this episode, we return to the subject of existential risks, but with a focus on what actions can be taken to eliminate or reduce these risks.Our guest is James Norris, who describes himself on his website as an existential safety advocate. The website lists four primary organizations which he leads: the International AI Governance Alliance, Upgradable, the Center for Existential Safety, and Survival Sanctuaries.Previously, one of James' many successful initiatives was Effective Altruism Global, the international conference series for effective altruists. He also spent some time as the organizer of a kind of sibling organization to London Futurists, namely Bay Area Futurists. He graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with a triple major in psychology, sociology, and philosophy, as well as with minors in too many subjects to mention.Selected follow-ups:James Norris websiteUpgrade your life & legacy - UpgradableThe 7 Habits of Highly Effective People (Stephen Covey)Beneficial AI 2017 - Asilomar conference"...superintelligence in a few thousand days" - Sam Altman blogpostAmara's Law - DevIQThe Probability of Nuclear War (JFK estimate)AI Designs Chemical Weapons - The BatchThe Vulnerable World Hypothesis - Nick BostromWe Need To Build Trustworthy AI Systems To Monitor Other AI: Yoshua BengioInstrumental convergence - WikipediaNeanderthal extinction - WikipediaMatrioshka brain - WikipediaWill there be a 'WW3' before 2050? - Manifold prediction marketExistential Safety Action PledgeAn Urgent Call for Global AI Governance - IAIGA petitionBuild your survival sanctuaryOther people mentioned include:Eliezer Yudkowsky, Roman Yampolskiy, Yan LeCun, Andrew NgMusic: Spike Protein, by Koi Discovery, available under CC0 1.0 Public Domain DeclarationPromoguy Talk PillsAgency in Amsterdam dives into topics like Tech, AI, digital marketing, and more drama...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify Digital Disruption with Geoff Nielson Discover how technology is reshaping our lives and livelihoods.Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/(00:00) - Introduction (01:11) - China AI (02:30) - DeepSeek (04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance (08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives (12:54) - China Meritocracy (24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China (37:12) - European Defense and Security (41:49) - US-China-Europe Relations Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Send us a textAbi Manifold has over 25 years of experience in Learning and Organisational Development, Abi's approach to leadership, culture, and performance is deeply rooted in empathy, authenticity, and the practical application of human insight. Her diverse background as an executive coach, psychometric profiler, and leadership facilitator gives her a rare ability to blend strategic thinking with meaningful, people-first practices. Throughout our discussion, Abi emphasized the importance of not just what people do, but how they do it—and most importantly, how it makes them feel.One of the key themes for me was how Abi highlighted that while many organizations want to do better in these spaces of leadership and cultivating a workforce that want to actually come into work and enjoy being art of something meaningful, organisations often overlook the most obvious source of insight on culture which is the experiences of their own people.ACCESS THE PODCAST LIBRARY & EVERY EPISODE, DEBRIEF & DOCUMENT CLICK HEREPODCAST GIFT - Get your FREE subscription to essential Firefighting publications HERE A big thanks to our partners for supporting this episode.GORE-TEX Professional ClothingMSA The Safety CompanyIDEXHAIX Footwear - Get offical podcast discount on HAIX HEREXendurance - to hunt performance & endurance 20% off HERE with code ffp20Lyfe Linez -  Get Functional Hydration FUEL for FIREFIGHTERS, Clean no sugar  for daily hydration. 80% of people live dehydratedSupport the show***The views expressed in this episode are those of the individual speakers. Our partners are not responsible for the content of this episode and does not warrant its accuracy or completeness.*** Please support the podcast and its future by clicking HERE and joining our Patreon Crew

Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."(00:00) - Introduction (02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel' (06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences (13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism (18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom (26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships (32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics (40:21) - Literary Comparisons and Philosophical Depth (45:38) - Philosophical Underpinnings of Meaning (48:14) - The Hard Problem of Consciousness (50:38) - Free Will and Determinism (52:53) - Darwinian Nihilism and Nick Land (58:17) - Historical Perspectives on East Asian Civilization (01:03:11) - The State of Literary Fiction (01:16:45) - AI and Literature (01:19:44) - AI and Human Meaning Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI. Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 burying the lede, so I'm going to try not to do that. The authors predict a strong chance that all humans will be (effectively) dead in 6 years, and this agrees with my best guess about the future. (My modal timeline has loss of control of Earth mostly happening in 2028, rather than late 2027, but nitpicking at that scale hardly matters.) Their timeline to transformative AI also seems pretty close to the perspective of frontier lab CEO's (at least Dario Amodei, and probably Sam Altman) and the aggregate market opinion of both Metaculus and Manifold! If you look on those market platforms you get graphs like this: Both [...] ---Outline:(02:23) Mode ≠ Median(04:50) Theres a Decent Chance of Having Decades(06:44) More Thoughts(08:55) Mid 2025(09:01) Late 2025(10:42) Early 2026(11:18) Mid 2026(12:58) Late 2026(13:04) January 2027(13:26) February 2027(14:53) March 2027(16:32) April 2027(16:50) May 2027(18:41) June 2027(19:03) July 2027(20:27) August 2027(22:45) September 2027(24:37) October 2027(26:14) November 2027 (Race)(29:08) December 2027 (Race)(30:53) 2028 and Beyond (Race)(34:42) Thoughts on Slowdown(38:27) Final Thoughts--- First published: April 9th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yzcb5mQ7iq4DFfXHx/thoughts-on-ai-2027 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.(00:00) - Introduction (02:07) - US-Russia Relations (03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy (05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia (09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion (14:14) - Historical Context and Predictions (29:37) - US Wealth Inequality (40:37) - Debating Wealth Inequality and Welfare States (42:35) - Homelessness and Government Intervention (45:18) - Employment Rates and Economic Behavior (50:12) - San Francisco's Homelessness Crisis (53:46) - US vs. Europe: Economic Divergence (01:06:06) - Cultural Differences in Economic Growth (01:10:48) - AI and Job Market Transformation (01:13:50) - Challenges in AI Adoption (01:15:16) - Consumer vs. Business Tech Adoption (01:15:56) - Slow AI Integration in Businesses (01:17:34) - AI in Customer Service (01:23:48) - Resistance to AI (01:26:36) - AI and Productivity (01:37:35) - Debates on Technological Progress Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Nelver - Proud Eagle Radio Show #565 [Pirate Station Online] (26-03-2025) ✅ Subscribe to Telegram channel: https://t.me/nelvermusic All episodes: https://band.link/proudeagle YouTube Video: https://youtu.be/eFcraoVZmsg Tracklist: 01. V O E - Illusion 02. AKAS - Wanting More 03. Exploid - Never Be Alone 04. Joro Dudovski - Vortex 05. Flint & Figure - Get Funky 06. coil circuit - Meseta 07. Bloodlike & Cammy - U & I (Extended Mix) 08. XHL & Monyu - Fission 09. Rasmich - Anomaly 10. Aegis & Tom Finster - Big Dog 11. Minor Forms - Shades 12. Matec - Resolute 13. dotdash - Micro Volts 14. Cartoon & NCT & Southby - Bounce On Da Riddim [feat. Emily J] (Extended Instrumental) 15. Des McMahon & Omen - Nothingness 16. V O E - Holding On 17. Kung - Poise 18. Polaris & Nelver - Nexus 19. Skyfade - Baile Vem 20. AKAS - 27 Degrees 21. SD - Noir 22. Seven-Headed - Wormwood 23. Beat Assassins - Turn It Up 24. Moderate Hate - Fun Machine 25. Apollo Navigation - Nothingness 26. Ed:it - Express Line 27. R3ST - Asgard 28. The Radiance - Subway 29. Solace - Dearth 30. Leks - Vices (Ill Truth Remix) 31. Sam Pyro - On The Inside 32. Density - Equinox 33. Hoax & Hugh Hardie & SOLAH - Wake Up 34. Bastion & Ragdoll - Where I Belong 35. IMIGHT - Celebrate 36. Nelver & Simplification - New York 37. Density - Thicker Skin 38. Audioscribe - Codeswitch (feat. Dylan Longworth) 39. Flint & Figure - Limited View 40. Manifold - Time Lapse 41. Nelver & nCamargo - Lonely 42. M.L.D - Pushing Away 43. Liquefaction - Sometimes 44. Nelver - Vikky's Song 45. Manifold & Daywarper - Lost Connection 46. Creatures & Philth - Love Song (Dub Mix) 47. Aethra - November 48. Impression & Fluid Form & Stunna - Sun Down 49. Hyrah - Ingrained 50. Phil Tangent & Malaky - Rival 51. Philth - One Perfect Moment [feat. Formik] (VIP) 52. Technimatic - Long Way Down 53. MAG - Kronos 54. Retrospekt - Hummingbird 55. Flowrian - Jill 56. Zen Zenith - Cascade 57. Nelver - Memories Of You Weekly updated Playlist "Proud Eagle" on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2W5vkVa Follow Nelver: https://www.instagram.com/nelvermusic/ https://vk.com/nelver https://spoti.fi/2ThGKDT https://soundcloud.com/nelver https://www.facebook.com/nelverdnb/ https://www.mixcloud.com/Nelver/ https://twitter.com/Nelvermusic #nelvermusic #drumandbass #proudeagle #dnbculture #dnbnation #newmusic #electronicmusic #mood #exclusive #trending #viral

Super. Lazy.Settle in. Start      Kevin Braheny, The Way Home, The Way Home24.43     Jeffrey Koepper, Avalanche, Arctisonia45.02     Michael Sandler, Manifold, Ansatz*1.11.16  Max Corbacho, Quantum Cathedrals, Horizon Matrix *Follow the link and search for “earman178.” The album is otherwise pretty unfindable. (If you’re a better internet sleuth than I, let me know with […]

A Word of Encouragement with Vicky Mutchler is heard at 11:30 AM Central Time on Faith Music Radio.  Join the Facebook group On a Positive Note to get more words of encouragement from Mrs. Vicky - https://www.facebook.com/groups/171863542874382/

There is no traffic in the world or in hell that can stop the functioning of grace!March 12, 2025 | WEDNESDAY PM Training In The WordLeroy Thompson TV FULL VIDEO LINK - Walking Wisely In The Manifold Gift of Grace ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://leroythompson.tv/programs/wed031225⁠⁠⁠⁠CONNECT NOW - BECOME A PARTNER ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.eiwm.org/partnership⁠⁠⁠⁠ | or TEXT "Connect" to 225-230-2234 To GIVE/SOW click the link below! ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.eiwm.org/give⁠⁠⁠⁠ | or TEXT "Sow" to 225-230-2234TESTIMONY?Email your testimonies to victory@eiwm.orgMORE LINKS⁠⁠⁠⁠https://linktr.ee/drleroysr⁠⁠⁠⁠#grace #wisdom #apostolic

Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.https://x.com/MishaLaskinSteve and Misha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education (03:50) - Transition from Physics to AI (05:47) - First Startup Experience (07:19) - Discovering Deep Learning (08:06) - Academic Postdoc at Berkeley (14:31) - Joining Google DeepMind (16:36) - Reinforcement Learning and Language Models (26:42) - Challenges and Future of AI (48:30) - Unique Perspective from Physics Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation. Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China (04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact (06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough (11:32) - The Role of Government in Tech Development (26:17) - Humanoid Robots: The Next Frontier (38:01) - Huawei and PLA? (40:49) - The Semiconductor Race (43:13) - Huawei's accelerated chip development (45:13) - Government's Role in Technological Advancements (46:21) - China's Domestic Tech Ecosystem (48:56) - Venture Capital and Entrepreneurship in China (51:57) - Corporate Culture and Innovation (55:48) - China's Competitive Edge in Various Industries (01:00:00) - Perceptions and Realities of Chinese Tech (01:08:37) - When will China be "investible" again for Western funds?  Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.  – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/trumps-vs-bidens-policies-will-nots This debate is sponsored by  @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforlibertyAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/separation-of-church-state-will-ale This debate is sponsored by  @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforlibertyAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/should-transchildren-be-able-to-tra This debate is sponsored by  @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforliberty LINKS TO GUESTS: https://x.com/BriannaWu  @Witsit  Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/is-onlyfans-bad-for-society-jazmen This debate is sponsored by  @AtheistsforLiberty , an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforliberty LINKS TO GUESTS:  @jazmenjafarr  @AlexStein99  Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

PREDICT who will be more persuasive in THIS debate here at Manifold: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate/government-moon-landing-hoax-will-a This debate is sponsored by  @AtheistsforLiberty, an organization devoted to preserving debates & dialogues between groups! Atheists for Liberty can be found here: https://linktr.ee/atheistsforliberty LINKS TO GUESTS:  @AlexStein99  @FTFEOfficial  Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing *Cameras are a necessity *No pre-recording your intro statement beforehand At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Peter 4:7-11. Although the concept of stewardship has been largely forgotten in our current culture, Scripture says much about it. In this study, Evangelist Jacob Holman considers three Biblical truths of stewardship that can help us be "good stewards of the manifold grace of God."

Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award. He studied English Literature and Computer Science at Harvard College, and graduated from Harvard Law School. https://kenliu.name/ Steve and Ken discuss:  00:00 Meet Ken Liu: Acclaimed Sci-Fi and Fantasy Writer04:25 The Immigrant Experience and Cultural Perspectives09:22 Harvard, MSFT, HLS, Litigation15:01 The Art of Storytelling and Technology34:03 Controversy in AI Reasoning34:31 Technology Outstripping Science35:22 AI and the Arts38:30 The Future of AI in Art42:44 AI's Role in Creative Processes50:04 Art, Automation, and Society57:31 Favorite Science Fiction and Fantasy01:03:06 The Genius of Philip K. DickMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.  – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate LINKS TO GUESTS:  @1stamender  @PlayingWithFireChannel  @rattlesnaketv Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Beginning in the first Trump presidency and expanded under Joe Biden, the US has taken a strategy of technologically containing China through restricting its access to cutting edge semiconductors. As Chinese Whispers has looked at before, these chips form the backbone of rapid advances in AI, telecoms, smartphones, weaponry and more. Washington's aim was clear: to widen the technological gap between the two powers But has this strategy worked? Lately this has become a hot topic of debate as Chinese tech companies such as Huawei and DeepSeek have nevertheless made technical strides. Some even argue that the export controls have spurred on Chinese innovation and self-reliance. In this episode of Chinese Whispers, two very informed and smart guests debate this issue. Ryan Fedasiuk is U.S. Director of The Future Society, an independent nonprofit organization focused on AI governance, and former Advisor for U.S.-China Bilateral Affairs at the US State Department. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics at Michigan State University and a start-up founder. He also hosts the podcast, Manifold. Produced by Cindy Yu and Joe Bedell-Brill.

Beginning in the first Trump presidency and expanded under Joe Biden, the US has taken a strategy of technologically containing China through restricting its access to cutting edge semiconductors. As Chinese Whispers has looked at before, these chips form the backbone of rapid advances in AI, telecoms, smartphones, weaponry and more. Washington's aim was clear: to widen the technological gap between the two powers But has this strategy worked? Lately this has become a hot topic of debate as Chinese tech companies such as Huawei and DeepSeek have nevertheless made technical strides. Some even argue that the export controls have spurred on Chinese innovation and self-reliance. In this episode of Chinese Whispers, two very informed and smart guests debate this issue. Ryan Fedasiuk is U.S. Director of The Future Society, an independent nonprofit organization focused on AI governance, and former Advisor for U.S.-China Bilateral Affairs at the US State Department. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics at Michigan State University and a start-up founder. He also hosts the podcast, Manifold. Produced by Cindy Yu and Joe Bedell-Brill.

Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate LINKS TO GUESTS: Isabella:  @IsabellaMoodyy  Link to Isabella & Luke's podcast, The Grudge: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLF5VWY4OT9Mt1seqMn6Ygx_OQ5xrL_edI&si=0Nk7p4VyQM1s0j8A Amy's after-show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o8UeKmVGm4 Alex Stein:  @AlexStein99  @1stamender Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebateAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Join Rabbi Joey Rosenfeld as he guides us through the world and major works of Kabbalah, Hasidic masters, and Jewish philosophy, shedding light on the inner life of the soul. To learn more, visit InwardTorah.org

Link to tickets for Newark, NJ DEBATECON 5 on Feb-15-16th: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/debatecon5 DEBATECON 5 Crowdfund: https://igg.me/at/debatecon5 Manifold is once again sponsoring DEBATECON 5! OH YEAH! PREDICT which debaters you think will be most persuasive in each DEBATECON 5 debate at Modern-Day Debate's Manifold prediction markets here: https://manifold.markets/ModernDayDebate Interested in debating on Modern-Day Debate? Here's a list of things we ask for from potential debaters when they email to make things go faster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kdwtQrA7QevNev9Mjm4xKvHnTkJ7FY-rMLjqUhtZKmI/edit?usp=sharing *Cameras are a necessity *No pre-recording your intro statement beforehand At Modern-Day Debate (MDD), our vision is to provide a neutral debate platform so everyone has their fair shot to make their case on a level playing field. Consider joining our Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate ) or our channel as a member. Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ModernDayDebate __________________________________________________________________ Modern Day Debate Discord: https://discord.gg/ModernDayDebate If James is hosting, the intro song will always be: MDD Theme [Featuring Brian & Travis] from Ye24: https://soundcloud.com/templecitystudios / @ThomCaliche If Ryan is hosting, you have to ask him what song is playing. _______________________________________________________________________________ RULES FOR CHAT -Chats flagrantly disrespectful toward speakers will receive a warning. *Attack the ideas instead of the person. -Chatters continuing the disrespect after a warning will be banned. -Chatters violating YouTube TOS are banned immediately. ______________________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The views shared by guests on Modern-Day Debate are not necessarily representative of the views of Modern-Day Debate, James, or any university he has or has had any affiliation with. I'm (James) a Christian. If you ever want prayer or just someone to talk to (specifically over voice chat on Zoom) after a horrible day, please reach out and let me know. moderndaydebate@gmail.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power (00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model (02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute (10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations (15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China (34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology (42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs (46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes (52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities (01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future Developments (01:27:48) - Disabling Military Bases (01:31:17) - Implications for the U.S. and China (01:35:26) - Future Defense Strategies and Realities Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This worship series is inspired by our community of faith's Deep Commitments for 2025 and will celebrate the diverse ways God shows up in our lives and the world. A number of people expressed a longing to root their lives in grace by more intentionally deconstructing the toxic images of God which have shaped them. Many in our community are hoping to work this coming year on letting go of harmful images of God while opening up to the new

01-15-2025 Pastor Tyler Stevison "Manifold Grace" WED 7PM

Relevant links:Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dpChapters:(00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam (03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved" (04:51) - The DARPA DEFUSE Grant Proposal (08:52) - Ralph Baric and Genetic Engineering of Coronaviruses (20:10) - Danielle Anderson and the Wuhan BSL-4 Lab (24:38) - The Role of EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak (29:28) - The Furin Cleavage Site Controversy (36:43) - NIAID Funding and the Wuhan Connection (40:53) - Capabilities and Limitations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Baric's Lab (44:41) - The DEFUSE Grant and Wuhan Institute of Virology (48:22) - RaTG13 Genome and Its Implications (50:34) - Kristian Anderson's Alarming Discovery (01:00:42) - Feb. 1 Teleconference with Fauci & Baric; Feb. 3 NAS Meeting (01:19:41) - Unintentional vs. Intentional Engineering (01:21:28) - Tracing the Virus to Wuhan, Patient Zero, and the Role of Danielle Anderson (01:29:38) - Rocky Mountain Lab and Virus Processing (01:36:32) - Animal Models, Engineering Aerosol Transmission (01:42:23) - The Smoking Gun Email

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation 33:46: Republican Senators 46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets 46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers  Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804670342 https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed/will-pete-hegseth-be-confirmed-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804692254 https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018 Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-a-forec-OzPZILyc5C?play=true Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Ephesians 3:1-11; Alton Hardy, Lead Pastor at Urban Hope Community Church in Fairfield, AL. Missions Sunday 2025

In this special episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) and his EA/producer Sammy Cottrell examine the production function behind Complex Systems, from studio logistics to transcript annotation and guest selection. They reflect on their most memorable episodes while discussing the podcast's core mission of making complex systems more legible and ensuring valuable content remains freely available on the internet. The conversation explores the subjective best episodes from 2024, plans for the year ahead, and how LLMs might transform both the systems they study and how we write about them.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2024-year-in-review-sammy-cottrell/–Sponsor: Vanta | GiveWell | Check Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complexSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Ricki Heicklen on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/11kEUYRn4gXZGju232hzcgCasey Handmer on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQuDan Davies on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9Zvi Mowshowitz on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4itdtJFLCpLQNd2g1zTtdDRoss Rheingans-Yoo on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6mPatrick's talk at Manifest 2024 (Manifold): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfiiXq_bE1c Article mentioned - ‘50K in a Shoebox': https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.htmlCopenhagen theory of culpability: https://laneless.substack.com/p/the-copenhagen-interpretation-of-ethics –Twitter:@patio11@haththerescuer–Timestamps:(01:04) Introducing Sammy(01:37) The offscreen symphony behind Complex Systems(07:19) Production supply chain and transcript philosophy(08:40) LLMs of choice(15:11) Sponsors: Vanta | Check(21:21) Favorite episodes(25:49) Sponsor: GiveWell(27:15) Beyoncé(28:47) More subjectively favorite episodes(32:34) Thesis of Complex Systems(34:07) Canon in operations research(40:51) Sabbatical mode(48:52) Bits about Money and other writing in 2024(51:22) On paywalls and not implementing them(54:29) LLM plans for 2025–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind. Links of interest:http://bach.ai/https://x.com/PlinzSteve and Joscha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany (06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy (10:17) - The fall of the Berlin Wall (14:57) - Commodore 64 and early programming experiences (15:29) - AGI timeline and predictions (19:35) - Scaling hypothesis, beyond Transformers, universality of information structures and world models (25:29) - Consciousness (41:11) - The ethics of brain interventions, zombies, and the Turing test (43:43) - LLMs and simulated phenomenology (46:34) - The future of consciousness research (48:44) - Cultural perspectives on suffering (52:19) - AGI and humanity's future (58:18) - Simulation hypothesis (01:03:33) - Liquid AI: Innovations and goals (01:16:02) - Philosophy of Identity: the Transporter Problem, Is there anything beyond memory records?  Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.  – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPodInformation Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw (00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast (01:19) - The education of a physicist (10:53) - Computational genomics (19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics (26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation (40:39) - University research administration (45:05) - Reproducibility crisis (57:58) - Impact of basic research (01:03:16) - Critique of NIH and biomedical research (01:06:48) - Personal reflections on Trump's re-election and an inside view of the 47 transition (01:12:37) - Silicon Valley and US politics (01:15:30) - Concerns and hope for America's future Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Trumpism 2.0 offers both danger and opportunity. Trumpism 1.0 was built around being tough with China. And while that is no longer a rhetorical priority for the big man, much of what was started in 2016 has since become the accepted wisdom in DC. Today, Trumpism 2.0 is as much about American competitiveness – in an international market that has slipped further away from its hegemon across the last eight years. It's about deregulation, DOGE, and developing strategic dominance in the emerging fields of AI, weapons tech, and genetics. We're in for four years of great power competition with China - against a background of a new focus on US competitiveness. Almost no one spans these subjects as elegantly as Steve Hsu. A professor of theoretical physics, startup founder and one of the most prominent members of the new counter-elite that has recently emerged from the high tech world of America's west coast to challenge the status quo in Washington DC Steve's research has included black holes and quantum information, dark energy, quantum gravity, and quark matter. He has also contributed to the field of genetics, especially on the construction of genomic predictors of complex human traits.Steve has founded several startups, including Othram, a company that uses DNA sequencing to help solve hot and cold criminal and missing persons cases, Genomic Prediction, which pioneered polygenic screening for embryos in IVF, and most recently Superfocus, an enterprise GPT that uses Large Language Models for language capability. Somehow, he finds time to host Manifold, one of the world's most interesting podcasts and a must-listen for all those who wish to keep abreast of the ideas and knowledge of the Silicon Valley and VC world. ***

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University's Faculty of Law & HakubiCenter. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan (14:17) - Neutrality in international relations (20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality (28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict (37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality (46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies (47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes (51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence (56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics (01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance (01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia (01:30:35) - Philippines' strategic dilemma (01:36:26) - Concluding thoughts Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry (35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements (37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone (41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph (48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology (51:16) - High-speed rail in China (53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube!   Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timelineduring this period. PPP and US vs PRC Real GDPhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492 PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852179736035778768 Note to retards, on "Chicoms":https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852195575434715645 Yu Min and the Chinese H-bomb:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497112635671016https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497765353558371 Me and He Jiankui:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852693355601199262 Dali:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853239642075648356https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853247317840629820https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853301562480718195 Lijiang:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854395254105047484https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854503079669838057 MAGA on the Mountain:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854015799901495674 Business-class lie flat seats on HSR:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855042439280791977 Kumming:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855748351855071433https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856215080637215222https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856239700362834006https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856533059509653578https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856634646160683273 Shanghai:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857282310099386857https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857391783770276314https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857574060122845381https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857653348557603255https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1858033981276467535 Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

LADYBEAT guestmix: 01. Ownglow - Stress & Strain 02. Javeon, Operate - Dark Clouds 03. Krakota – Callback 04. MAILKY, Kooka - The Night 05. Spectrasoul, Flava D - Always Flava D Remix 06. Alix Perez - Elastic Soul 07. Gera & Stone feat. Peta Oneir - The Fourth State 08. Lameduza, Ficci - Wish S.I.N Remix 09. Hayden James, Spectrasoul - Something About You SpectraSoul Remix 10. Philip George - Wish You Were Mine Dexcell Remix 11. Skorp - Come To Life 12. Technicolour – Centrifuge 13. ФЛИККЕР- million chance st 14. DJ Marnel - Capitão De Areia 15. Bladerunner - Stay MARINA ROXY & Mr. SIZEF guestmix: 01. Mr.Sizef Chocolate Evening, The Crimson Sea, Sweet Feeling, Only 02. Юлия Савичева - Высоко (Klimovich Nikolay remix) 03. Mr.Sizef feat. Karina - Song About Love 04. Братья Грим - Хлопай Ресницами (Dnb Remix Prod.TripSauce) 05.Linnique (Mr.Sizef) - 100 -7-7 06. Баста x Cмоки Мо x Тати - Шар (2Whales Bootleg) 07. Linnique (Mr.Sizef) - Circus Arena 08. Disney - Duck Tales (Chippon x Lebedeff Remix) 09. Linnique (Mr. Sizef) - This is (not) drum and bass 10. Willie Key - Back To Cuba (Dark Soul Remix) 11. Mr.Sizef - Enjoy This World 12. Bill Withers - Lovely Day (B-Side Detta remix) GVOZD vibez: 1.Bensley & Voicians - Letting Go (mONSTERCAT) 2.Rob Gasser - 4ever&ever (High Tea, Matcha Latte) 3.Dub Elements - Insane 4.Pop Off - I Get So Lost 5.Phaseone, Polaris - Icarus (Shockone Remix) (Sounds Of Mayhem) 6.Morebeat - Paranoids (Hanzom) 7.Bugwell - Makalu (High Tea) 8.Reubs - What Are You 9.Dub Elements - They Say (Dem , New Era LP) 10.D-Formator & Dark3z - Kolybel 11.TNTKLZ - Buck Off 12.Skellytn & No Etiquette - Digital Conscience 13.Zombie Cats - TIK TOK, TIK TOK (December 6th, 2024,Manifold dub) 14.it is Jev - Kundalini Riddim 15.ChaseR & Malstrom - Reflection (Neuropunk, No Quarter LP) 16.Aduken, Submonitor & Reebz - Release Me 17.TNTKLZ - Neurogenic Orbit (Neuropunk, Synthesys LP) 18.Aaron Payne feat. Luke Truth - Chasing Lies 19.NKZ - Sun Glasses (Original Mix) 20.MaxLI - Cosmodrome (Nvasion dub) 21.Haze - Not The One [3000 Deep] 22.Former - GRONINGEN (Vision) 23.wintour - Sahra (Interstellar) 24.Acid Purrr - Metal Funk 25.Enei & EN:VY - Drilla 26.Ninive, Incident - Night Trip 27.Apalace - Bad Boi 28.Deekline, Specimen A, Ivory, Killa P - Mosh Pit (ALR Remix) (Jungle Cakes) 29.Turno & Basslayerz - Pon Di Bill 30.DON DARKOE & Bass Ventura feat. Ekstatic - Wanted 31.KL & Parallel - Know Me (Grid) 32.Involver - Money 33.Niterider/Chunky Bizzle - Where's That From 34.General Levy, Bonnot - Roll Up (Rld) 35.Flava D x Emz - Fluent (Clean Version) (Hospital) 36.Moostatz - Back To Funk 37.Tim Reaper & Dwarde - Can't Let Go( HC music group) 38.So Sus - Stars In Your Eyes (Pala Chrome Remix) 39.Rueben, Tyr Kohout & flowanastasia - Stereotype

November 3rd, 2024 | Rev. Alton Hardy

Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from  Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

In this episode of the ThinkFreight Podcast, I sit down with Oliver Jones, Founder of Manifold Freight, to discuss his journey from the pioneering digital brokerage Convoy to launching his own company focused on spot freight solutions. Oliver shares his background in logistics and technology, detailing how his 6.5 years at Convoy shaped his approach to building Manifold Freight. During his time at Convoy, he played a crucial role in its operations and experienced firsthand the highs of working in a well-supported startup, as well as the challenges of winding down operations.Oliver talks about the inspiration behind Manifold Freight and explains its unique focus on the spot freight market.He discusses why he chose to specialize in spot freight, how Manifold supports shippers through market volatility, and the key analytics tools available on the platform, like win-rate tracking and team metrics, to help companies navigate this competitive space.=================================

On this episode of Conversations with Ku, hear from Elections Supervisor, Zach Manifold where he discusses statewide updates about the upcoming General Election on November 5. Commissioner Ku would love to hear from you or answer questions about District 2. Feel free to email him at Ben.Ku@GwinnettCounty.com and your question may be read on air.

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver—yes, the Nate Silver from 538—joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk—whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] – Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] – Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] – Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] – Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] – The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] – Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] – The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] – Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] – Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

We had the pleasure of spending a Sunday at the Baha'i temple in Mona Vale and chatting to these amazing young people from the band Manifold.

In episode 212 of the Pool Nation Podcast, Edgar, John, and Zach do a deep dive into the world of heat pumps with special guests Brad Duncan and Akshaya Shakar from Raypak. They discuss the mechanics of heat pumps, their efficiency, and the growing trend toward adopting this energy-saving technology. Tune in as they break down the key factors pool pros need to consider when selling, installing, and maintaining heat pumps, and the exciting updates Raypak is bringing to the industry with new products and extended warranties. Timestamps: [00:00:00] - Introduction to the podcast, Edgar, John, and Zac welcome Brad Duncan and Akshaya Shakar. [00:02:00] - Raypak shoutouts, discussion of visionary partners, and Zac's tech issues. [00:03:00] - John talks about the heat wave, chemical costs, and how pool pros can benefit from heat pumps. [00:04:00] - Brad discusses the importance of understanding heat pump efficiency for future-proofing your business. [00:07:00] - Edgar brings up the benefits of heat pumps and how they differ from gas heaters. [00:10:00] - John emphasizes why pool pros need to stay ahead of the curve with heat pump technology. [00:14:00] - Brad explains how a heat pump works and the science behind extracting heat from the air. [00:16:00] - How heat pumps perform in different climates and markets, key factors pool pros should consider. [00:20:00] - The efficiency of heat pumps versus gas heaters, and how to explain the cost savings to customers. [00:23:00] - John shares his experience with Airbnb properties and using heat pumps in conjunction with gas heaters. [00:26:00] - Brad discusses the heat-cool model and the ability to control water temperature year-round. [00:29:00] - Zac talks about the initial investment versus long-term savings of heat pumps and how to present that to customers. [00:32:00] - The importance of setting customer expectations when switching to heat pumps. [00:34:00] - What affects heat pump efficiency: air temperature, humidity, and installation conditions. [00:37:00] - Critical installation factors, including space requirements, airflow, and clearances. [00:43:00] - The maintenance required for heat pumps and how to clean evaporator coils. [00:46:00] - Licensing requirements for working with refrigerants and the need for HVAC certification. [00:53:00] - The steps involved in installing a heat pump, including plumbing and electrical considerations. [00:58:00] - Manifold plumbing configurations for heat pumps and gas heaters together. [01:04:00] - Electrical requirements for heat pumps, including the importance of proper wiring and amperage. [01:14:00] - Akshaya introduces Raypak's new "Brains and Brawn" partnership with Poolside Tech and their collaboration with AquaStar. [01:15:00] - Brad shares exciting news about Raypak's new three-year warranty for Avea heaters. [01:22:00] - The team discusses the importance of choosing reliable products for long-term customer satisfaction. [01:24:00] - Final thoughts from Zac, John, and Edgar about the future of heat pump technology and pool pros' responsibilities to stay ahead. [01:26:00] - A shout-out to the amazing women who attended the Pool Nation Women's Summit.

It can be all too easy in the modern “Christian” life to fill our calendars and our souls with all kinds of good work that unknowingly distances our souls from the beauty and simplicity of walking with Jesus. In this message, Pastor Chuck shares the first invitation in Jesus' call of discipleship: to be submerged and surrounded in the Father's love!

REGISTER FOR THE 2024 ALT-POKAL HERE: https://www.homebrewhappyhour.com/about-us/alt-pokal-2023/ Make sure to reserve your spot in the 2024 Alt-Pokal Altbier World Championship by using the link above! Thank you for joining us again for another episode of our Homebrew Happy Hour podcast!… THE home brew #podcast where we answer all of your home brewing questions and discuss […]

In this short episode of the HVAC School podcast, Bryan talks about hoses and their various types and applications, particularly focusing on NAVAC hoses. Charging hoses (NAVAC: NH5 and NH5L) ideally shouldn't be longer than 5-6 feet, as the longer the hose, the more refrigerant it will hold. Manifold gauges also have leak points, so it's usually better to use probes instead of manifolds to help with charging. Charging hoses with ball valves (NH5S and NH5SC) can help you control the flow and are great for recovery. Whenever you use charging hoses, they will have a core depressor on one side only (usually the 45-degree side, if applicable); the right amount should be exposed, and the seal should be in good shape. Larger-diameter hoses with higher burst pressure are advantageous for recovery (though it's better to have separate hoses for recovery and evacuation). Larger-diameter hoses of a shorter length will allow you to get a higher flow rate, including cases where you have 1/4" connectors (though the F1028 & F1029  Rapid Y connection fittings can help out with those cases where you have 1/4" connectors by giving you the ability to connect two 3/8" hoses); hoses with a diameter of 3/8" are usually the biggest recommended ones for recovery. NAVAC's recovery hoses are the NHR38AA and NHR38AB. Evacuation hoses are even bigger. Some good evacuation hoses include the NH34AB and NH34AC; they are short 3/4" hoses that are vacuum-rated and quite flexible. NAVAC also has smaller hoses, which tend to look more like recovery hoses. You do not want to use 1/4" hoses and core depressors for evacuation, but they are good for charging.   Check out all of the hoses NAVAC has to offer at https://navacglobal.com/products-by-category/hoses-kits/.  Have a question that you want us to answer on the podcast? Submit your questions at https://www.speakpipe.com/hvacschool.  Purchase your tickets or learn more about the 6th Annual HVACR Training Symposium at https://hvacrschool.com/symposium. Subscribe to our podcast on your iPhone or Android.   Subscribe to our YouTube channel.  Check out our handy calculators here or on the HVAC School Mobile App for Apple and Android.