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The freight market is at a "pivotal moment" as shifting industry narratives meet long-overdue regulatory action and the harsh realities of a capacity glut. Hear how the ATA executed a stunning tactical retreat on their decades-long "truck driver shortage" claim, now admitting the problem is a "shortage of quality drivers" rather than quantity. This retreat coincides with federal regulators moving to fix a self-created crisis: the DOT issued an emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs that were improperly granted to at least 200,000 non-U.S. residents since March 2019. This massive influx of drivers fueled the "Great Freight Recession," yet real inflation-adjusted truck driver wages have only increased minimally since 2010. We examine the brutal financial impact of overcapacity, including Pamt Corp.'s fourth consecutive quarterly net loss and its unsustainable 106.7% adjusted operating ratio for its truckload unit. Conversely, Landstar System's mixed results showed strong flatbed trends and the first sequential increase in its exclusive carrier base since 2022, potentially signaling a slow market turn as regulatory changes threaten to remove 200,000 owner-operators from the pool. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Truckload carrier Pamt Corp. books another loss in Q3, reporting a net loss of $5.6 million for the third quarter, marking its fourth consecutive net loss in a market that continues to hammer the freight industry. The company's consolidated revenue dropped 18% year-over-year, and its truckload unit reported a tough 106.7% operating ratio, exacerbated by its high reliance on the tariff-hampered auto industry. In contrast, Flatbed trends buttress Landstar amid dry van slump, as the company reported strong flatbed volumes even though dry van freight demand remains soft. Landstar reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.22, just one cent shy of consensus estimates, and management noted that potential regulation-induced capacity crunch on the owner-operator population may signal a future market flip. Also covered today, Port Houston completes ship channel dredging amid environmental scrutiny, finalizing its share of the $1 billion Houston Ship Channel Expansion (Project 11) to widen the waterway to 700 feet through Galveston Bay. Port CEO Charlie Jenkins confirmed the project is already delivering measurable gains, improving safety and reducing vessel emissions by allowing ships to move more efficiently through one of the nation's busiest waterways. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DAT, a subsidiary of Roper Technologies, is evolving into an automated, AI-powered freight marketplace, a transformation discussed by executives at the FreightWaves F3 and on the Roper earnings call. This strategic shift is predicated on a series of key acquisitions, including the Convoy tech stack, Trucker Tools, and Outgo, which aim to build capabilities across the entire freight automation workflow, promising savings of $100–$200 per load.  We dive into the immediate crisis caused by federal attempts to restrict non-domiciled CDLs, a pool that has added over 200,000 licenses since 2019, contributing to the "Great Freight Recession". The U.S. Postal Service's sudden ban on these drivers led to immediate, severe service disruptions and a rapid reversal, highlighting the supply chain's critical reliance on this driver segment.  The program features an update on Union Pacific's aggressive campaign to secure approval for its $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern, a merger that would create the first U.S. transcontinental freight railroad. This campaign includes strategic political maneuvering, such as a donation to President Trump's White House ballroom project and securing job guarantee backing from its largest labor union. In air cargo news, we cover Kalitta Air's deployment of the first-ever Boeing 777 converted freighters, dubbed the "Big Twin," for dedicated customers like DHL Express and Challenge Group, leveraging their increased volume and fuel efficiency. Finally, we examine Marten Transport's third-quarter earnings, which saw overall profitability maintained despite a loss in the Truckload segment, and discuss how the U.S. reached a trade framework with China even while tensions flared with Canada over a new 10% tariff increase.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The US and China have reached a framework for a new trade agreement, potentially averting the threatened 100% tariff on Chinese imports, even as the U.S. has raised tariffs on Canada by 10%. Accucold has launched a new dual compressor combination refrigerator and freezer designed specifically for the life science, healthcare, and pharmaceutical sectors. These new models, available in two widths, feature independent temperature control across multiple compartments and include user-focused safety features like audible and visual alarms that alert users to temperature excursions, power loss, or door openings. The freight industry is closely monitoring the potential for a severe capacity crunch following increased enforcement of non-domiciled CDL issuance nationwide. FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller suggests that the emergency rule addressing the improper granting of at least 200,000 non-domiciled CDLs will lead to a significant tightening of truckload capacity across the United States. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Salvage experts successfully concluded operations at Hong Kong International Airport after an AirACT Boeing 747-400 cargo jet skidded off the North Runway and into the sea. The team recovered key components, including the tail section, an engine, landing gear, and the flight data recorder, following the accident that tragically killed the two occupants of a security car struck by the plane. This episode conducts a deep dive into two critical market dynamics: the immediate, costly friction building at the U.S.-Mexico border due to the MVE compliance rules, and the paradoxical deepening capacity crunch within the domestic U.S. truckload market. We analyze how, despite the national Outbound Tender Volume Index hitting an all-time October low, capacity is quietly tightening up because it is exiting the market faster than demand is falling off, compounded by systemic safety risks linked to the proliferation of substandard CDL training facilities. The trucking sector is experiencing a significant capacity washout driven by a 30% collapse in long-haul freight, which is shifting market share to the resurgent intermodal sector. This capacity erosion, exacerbated by fears of deportation among non-domiciled and immigrant drivers in key markets like Southern California, is creating localized tightness and spot rate increases, which industry experts believe is laying the necessary groundwork for a potential trucking "super cycle" recovery around mid-2025. The U.S. highway system is facing a critical safety crisis, evidenced by a shocking 40% increase in fatal truck crashes since 2014, stemming largely from systemic flaws in commercial driver training and licensing. This deterioration is linked directly to a February 2022 regulatory change that allowed the proliferation of "CDL mills"—substandard facilities that exploit the self-certification database to issue licenses after minimal instruction, demanding stronger federal oversight and enforcement. A comprehensive reform proposal calls for centralizing the Commercial Driver's License system under the USDOT to establish a single, standardized Federal CDL with unified training and testing across the nation. To combat fraud and enhance security, the plan mandates the integration of the Federal CDL with the Transportation Worker Identification Credential card for biometric verification and comprehensive background checks, alongside stringent new rules aimed at eliminating fraudulent “chameleon companies” through address restrictions and federalizing apportioned license plate issuance. Despite the severe downturn in truckload demand, with the OTVI down 19% year-over-year, tender rejection rates are trending higher, underscoring the severe speed at which capacity is being removed from the market. The long-haul segment, specifically, has experienced a 30% decline as intermodal offers near-record savings, forcing trucking networks to regionalize and increasing volatility in long-haul tender rejection rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We analyze CSX's recent Q3 earnings, noting that while adjusted operating income fell 8% due partly to a non-cash write-down and export coal decline, the operational story shows significant strength. The railroad is running better than ever, reporting a 1% growth in overall volume fueled by a robust 5% surge in intermodal traffic, alongside key operational improvements like an 8% decrease in terminal dwell time. Global markets continue to see chaos, as trans-Pacific container freight rates plummet due to overcapacity and worsening US-China trade friction, causing Asia-US West Coast rates to fall to pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, the UN's International Maritime Organization postponed action on a global carbon tax following US opposition, a delay analysts warn risks stalling green investments and potentially leading to higher future freight rates down the line. Domestic capacity tightness is intensifying at the US-Mexico border, driven by policy changes like the pause on new foreign commercial driver visas and new English proficiency interviews, leading to a massive 18% jump in Laredo's Outbound Tender Reject Index. Compounding the labor issue, the industry is seeing a strong push to reimplement rigorous CDL training centered on the crucial Smith System's five key principles, arguing that proactive human override is essential for safety over the current priority of speed of qualification. On the equipment innovation front, Wabash National is expanding its Trailers as a Service platform with the new offering, TaaS Pools, designed to provide short-term, on-demand capacity for maximum flexibility, particularly for 3PLs. Unlike traditional leasing, TaaS Pools includes embedded management and maintenance, backed by TrailerHawk technology, which is critical for guaranteeing trailer uptime when capacity is tight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The proposed transcontinental railroad merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern heads toward a shareholder vote on November 14th, as both companies' boards urge investors to approve the historic transaction. Simultaneously, the shipping industry is navigating major disruptions as Ocean freight rates plummet amid China chaos, causing container rates on key transpacific routes to hit two-year lows due to tariffs and declining demand. We also detail the new legislation introduced in the Senate, which seeks to vacate sentences for mechanics convicted of tampering with heavy-duty truck diesel equipment and remove the EPA's authority over vehicle pollution rules. Proponents of the legislation argue that current regulations unfairly criminalize mechanics for keeping essential vehicles running in harsh climates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This daily market update dives into the relentless push for efficiency and adaptation across the supply chain, beginning with J.B. Hunt's third-quarter earnings beat. The multimodal giant saw an 18% jump in earnings per share (EPS), driven not by demand, but by surgical cost control that included stripping out $20 million in costs in Q3 as part of an efficiency program aiming for annual savings greater than $100 million. We connect this corporate efficiency focus to the road, examining the surprising resilience of owner-operators. Triumph Capital data shows the average factored invoice size for independent owner-operators actually rose by $16 compared to a year ago, contrasting sharply with a $92 decline for large fleets, which is largely attributed to the O/Os' lower fixed costs and flexibility to pivot to niche segments like Amazon power-only moves. This capacity picture may tighten due to legislation like "Connor's Law", a companion bill requiring Commercial Driver's License holders to prove English proficiency sufficient to understand signs, converse with the public, and respond to official inquiries, a measure supported by industry groups like the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association. Finally, we explore a fundamental logistical rethink in cross-border e-commerce driven by the abolition of the U.S. de minimis tariff exemption for small-dollar imports, which caused massive shipment backlogs for commercial carriers like UPS due to missing or incomplete documentation. As a response, retailers are seriously considering international postal networks as a compliant and cost-effective alternative, creating an emerging hybrid model utilizing both U.S. warehouses for high-value items and modernized postal channels for low-value goods. We conclude with a provocative signal from California, where Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed SB-34, a bill that would have restricted public funds for port automation projects. Despite fierce union opposition, who called the veto a "betrayal," Newsom argued the bill would hinder port modernization and global competitiveness, confirming that the drive toward technological efficiency continues relentlessly on the West Coast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Department of Transportation has announced it is withholding over $40 million in Motor Carrier Safety Assistance Program grants from California. This funding cut is a consequence of the state failing to place truck drivers who do not meet the Trump administration's English Language Proficiency requirements out of service. J.B. Hunt Transport Services saw an 18% year-over-year increase in earnings per share to $1.76 for the third quarter, a result that strongly exceeded analyst expectations. The company is scrutinizing expense lines and has already removed $20 million in costs during the period as part of a program aiming for annual savings potentially greater than $100 million. Following the revocation of the U.S. de minimis tariff exemption, e-commerce shippers are encountering difficulties with new customs requirements, resulting in backlogs of non-compliant shipments at commercial carriers like UPS. Due to this complexity, retailers and logistics partners are taking a second look at international postal networks as a potentially compliant and less expensive route for certain low-value goods. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode dives into the "extreme contradiction" defining the logistics market, analyzing the profound divergence between financial disaster hitting small trucking firms and surprising pricing resilience in key segments. The U.S. trucking sector is flashing bright red distress signals, marked by an elevated rate of Chapter 11 filings in transportation in October's first 2 weeks, which is accelerating the necessary capacity contraction cycle. We unpack the major paradox between the Truckload and Less-Than-Truckload segments, noting that the TL market saw a "September bounce" driven by shippers consolidating loads to leverage low rates, but the overall recovery remains highly uncertain. In stark contrast, the LTL sector continues to flex massive pricing power, setting a new record for its rate-per-pound component in Q3 because carriers are ruthlessly prioritizing yield over volume, as detailed in the report LTL pricing index hits new high in Q3. Globally, trade flows are running hot, with August volumes hitting a new record high, defying expectations, although global container rates continue to soften due to new tonnage and Red Sea diversions, as discussed in Despite U.S. decline, global container traffic sets new record. Adding sharp uncertainty is the escalating trade war, where New China sanctions on South Korean company aiding U.S. shipbuilding shows geopolitical tensions are now directly targeting critical infrastructure like shipyards. We also look north to Canada, where the long-running dispute between Canada Post and the CUPW continues, resulting in operational delays and a fundamental shift in shipper behavior toward private delivery companies, detailed in Canada Post restarts operations, manages delays from rolling strikes. Tune in to understand how this divergence—from catastrophic small fleet failures to unprecedented LTL yield power—will shape carrier strategy as the third-quarter earnings season gets underway. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Less-Than-Truckload pricing power continues to dominate the market, drawing on insights from the latest quarterly report by AFS Logistics and TD Cowen. LTL rates are expected to remain elevated through year-end, following a third-quarter rate-per-pound index that set a record, standing 65.1% above its 2018 baseline. The episode also reviews the higher-than-average rate of transport bankruptcy filings seen in the first half of October. Filings included five companies, ranging from small carriers like G1 Transport (five power units) and Styx Logistics (an Amazon DSP) to larger entities like GEC Transport Solutions (70 power units). Hear about FleetWorks' efforts to modernize freight matchmaking using artificial intelligence, fueled by a recent $17 million funding round led by First Round Capital. CEO Paul Singer noted that AI is the solution to the long-standing inefficiency caused by lack of transparency between brokers and carriers, and the company plans to use the funds to scale engineering teams in San Francisco and Chicago. Don't miss today's lineup on FreightWaves TV, including a new episode of WHAT THE TRUCK?!? with Malcolm Harris, live at noon. Plus, learn how you can join the leaders shaping freight's future at the F3: Future of Freight Festival in Chattanooga, Tennessee, happening next week. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We begin with the domestic "Compliance Crunch," a sudden and significant contraction in US trucking capacity driven by intensified immigration enforcement actions causing non-citizen drivers to exit the market, independent of demand. This rapid capacity disappearance resulted in a noticeable -6.7% decrease in unique US DOT numbers between September and October 2025, leading to intense regional volatility where spot rates in places like Gary, Indiana, skyrocketed up to 42%. The squeeze gets tighter in drayage, as ocean carriers and ports strictly enforce accessorial charges to maintain revenue, shifting higher storage and waiting costs to shippers, compounded by new rules restricting non-domiciled CDLs. Globally, we detail the major turbulence brewing over maritime carbon regulation, following the US administration's forceful rejection of the International Maritime Organization's proposed Net-Zero Framework. The US administration labeled the NZF a "European-led neocolonial export" and threatened severe retaliatory measures, including blocking vessels from US ports and imposing extra fees, warning that the global carbon tax could hike shipping costs by 10% or more. Amid this volatility, supply chain leaders must leverage technology that drives actionable resilience and prediction, moving beyond mere visibility dashboards that only show chaos after it happens. AI-powered procurement platforms like Arkestro are helping teams shift from costly, reactive compliance to proactive, predictive sourcing, which can cut sourcing time by 60% to 90% by predicting negotiation outcomes and streamlining bids. On the ground, collaboration platforms such as C3 Hive are becoming the essential connective environment, sitting between a company's transportation, warehouse, and yard management systems to synchronize information and actions across the supply chain. Customers typically report a 90% drop in just calls and emails within two weeks of deployment, proving this action-oriented tech is replacing the phone as the messy integration layer. Finally, we look inside the warehouse walls, where intelligence platforms are rapidly advancing, highlighted by Dexory securing $165 million in funding to accelerate its AI-powered warehouse intelligence platform. Dexory uses autonomous mobile robots that scan over 10,000 locations per hour, creating a real-time digital twin of the warehouse, which speeds up the shift to truly adaptive, self-learning warehouses. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. rail traffic increased for a second consecutive week for the period ending Oct. 4, 2025, with overall volume up 3.6%. North American rail volume also saw gains, rising 4.7% for the week, notably boosted by substantial weekly growth in Mexican rail traffic, which saw intermodal units jump 82.9%. Trade volatility means tariffs are serving as the "Tariffs are the wake-up call supply chains needed” for innovation, compelling savvy leaders to utilize AI to transform resource-intensive procurement tasks. Platforms like Arkestro, which uses behavioral science and AI, are now being adopted by Fortune 500 companies to move from reactive compliance to predictive strategies that can cut 60% to 90% of sourcing time while improving pricing accuracy. We also cover escalating global tensions as the U.S. administration vehemently rejects the IMO's Net-Zero Framework. Calling the NZF a "European-led neocolonial export," the U.S. warned nations that voting for the mandatory GHG limits and emissions pricing system could lead to severe retaliatory measures, including blocking vessels from U.S. ports and imposing additional port fees. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Maritime trade disputes have escalated with the US and China implementing reciprocal tonnage fees effective October 14th, while the U.S. is aggressively targeting Chinese-made container cranes and intermodal chassis with staggering tariffs up to 270%. The instability is creeping into vital cross-border operations, specifically the US-Mexico e-commerce corridor, following Mexico's mid-August move to raise duties on Chinese imports to 33.5% and roll out stricter data reporting rules. This mix of higher duties and inconsistent enforcement is creating compliance challenges, causing US sellers to reassess using Mexico as a fulfillment hub and potentially shifting inventory back north into the states. Domestically, the truckload market is flashing warning signs of capacity fragility after the National Truckload Index for dry van spot rates rose 2% without the typical corresponding rise in contract tender rejections. Adding to the risk picture, new ATRI data highlights the hidden cost of cargo theft, estimating annual direct costs for motor carriers between $456.7 million and $937.4 million, noting that over 40% of carriers do not report lower-value incidents due to high deductibles and fear of escalating premiums. C.H. Robinson is tackling the need for stability by introducing the Asset Management System (AMS) within its Drop Trailer Plus program, a significant technological upgrade that applies to nearly 50% of the entire truckload market. AMS integrates GPS technology and real-time operational data into the Navisphere platform, transforming trailers into "intelligent assets" that offer SKU-level visibility, enhanced security, and a buffer against capacity shocks and rising crime costs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. Trade Representative has announced new tariffs on Chinese-made container cranes set to go into effect on November 9th, in response to China's use of unfair trade practices in shipping and shipbuilding. These levies, which include 100% tariffs on ship-to-shore container cranes, could stack with existing duties, bringing the total assessed tariffs on some Chinese exports to between 125% and 270%. Canadian mail carriers, represented by the Canadian Union of Postal Workers, have switched from a nationwide strike to local rotating strikes. Union officials characterized the move as a compromise allowing the restart of mail and parcel service after a two-week national shutdown, although Canada Post has suspended all service guarantees due to the uncertainty caused by the new rotating actions. Amazon is continuing to significantly build out its footprint by opening its largest fulfillment center ever in the Pacific Northwest and simultaneously constructing a large, automated distribution center in Indiana. The facility in Woodburn, Oregon, covers 3.8 million square feet—four times the size of Portland's International Airport terminals—and Amazon plans to initially hire 3,000 people to run the operation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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The trucking industry faces a major disruption as PE-backed flatbed operator Montgomery Transport LLC abruptly filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and ceased operations immediately. This sudden shutdown put approximately 1,000 employees out of work, including 600 truck drivers, highlighting the fragility of transportation companies in today's economy. Global trade flows are shifting as U.S. maritime gateways saw container imports drop 8.4% in September, with imports from China specifically falling 22.9% year-over-year. These declines, which included dramatic drops in goods like aluminum (43.8%) and footwear (33.9%), come amid the restructuring of U.S. trade using tariffs and other economic pressures. Uzbekistan is positioning itself as the next global IT logistics hub, driven by its growing digital economy and expanding U.S. trade relationships. Government initiatives like IT Park Uzbekistan offer compelling incentives, including 0% tax rates for technology companies, and leverage a young, highly literate workforce ready to serve global markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Enforcement activities by ICE, targeting non-domiciled CDL holders in southern states, have triggered a capacity shock, rerouting trucks to the Midwest and East Coast and causing regional spot rates to spike despite overall soft national freight volume. Globally, the macro picture confirms a rapid cooling, with new data projecting that US import container volumes will fall below the 2 million TEU mark for the remainder of 2025 due to weakening consumer spending and early peak season frontloading. This softening demand occurs as major Chinese carriers, including Cosco and OOCL, make the surprise move of announcing they will not levy surcharges to offset escalating US port fees set to begin October 14th. Looking ahead, significant capital is flowing squarely into automation and freight tech, signaling a long-term industry focus on efficiency and driverless operations. Autonomous trucking company Kodiak AI made its public debut on NASDAQ with a $2.5 billion valuation, while IKEA acquired the logistics tech platform Locus to improve its delivery fulfillment capabilities amidst surging e-commerce sales. Furthermore, back-office automation is accelerating, exemplified by Mentium, which raised a $3.2 million seed round to deploy AI-powered digital workers specifically focused on automating accounts payable processing for freight brokerages. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ocean container rates on the eastbound Trans-Pacific are falling by double digits in a surprise move from China carriers ahead of new US port fees. The ship tax, which begins next week, charges China-owned or operated ships $80 per net tonnage for each voyage to the U.S. and could cost major players like Cosco and OOCL as much as $2.1 billion in 2026. Autonomous trucking company Kodiak AI just debuted on the NASDAQ after successfully combining with Ares Acquisition Corporation II, resulting in a $2.5 billion valuation for the newly public company. Kodiak secured more than $275 million in funding through this de-SPAC transaction, which CEO Don Burnette noted marks an inflection point for the industry as self-driving technology matures toward commercial deployment. Additionally, the Senate confirmed David Fink, a former Pan Am Railways president and fifth-generation railroader, to lead the Federal Railroad Administration. President Trump nominated Fink, stating he would "deliver the FRA into a new era of safety and technological innovation". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dry van rates are surging nationwide, despite weak trucking volumes and low tender rejections, an inversion that points to hard supply contraction driven by behavioral reactions to immigration enforcement efforts. We also analyze the broader, longer-term metrics from the Logistics Managers' Index, which recorded a September reading of 57.4, marking the seventh consecutive month the index has remained below its all-time average. This confirms slow, steady growth rather than a roaring expansion, and for the third straight month, a "negative freight inversion" occurred where transportation capacity grew faster than transportation pricing. In Washington, Derek Barrs was officially confirmed as the eighth administrator of the FMCSA, a move that industry groups like the American Trucking Associations and the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association had been anxious to see confirmed. Furthermore, new research links truck drivers who violate English language proficiency rules to significantly higher safety risks—with inspections involving an ELP violation having two and a half times the number of total non-ELP violations—though the study cautions this is a correlation and not direct causation. We provide a quick carrier pulse check confirming ongoing market pressures, highlighted by San Diego-based Epic Lightning Fast Service LLC permanently closing operations and laying off 116 employees by the end of October due to persistent challenging market conditions. However, there is positive news in the LTL space, as Daylight Transport was named the top overall LTL carrier for the second consecutive year and Old Dominion Freight Line was recognized as the top national carrier for the 16th straight year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Suez Canal anticipates a recovery following potential Middle East resolutions, with the waterway's chief indicating that plans to end the conflict in Gaza should pave the way for a substantial return of global shipping traffic in 2025. Attention turns to domestic freight as the Association of American Railroads (AAR) releases its latest analysis. September rail volumes reflect the uneven pace of the US economy, prompting a guarded assessment for consistent tailwinds in rail movement.. Finally, we look at legal implications for government-backed logistics entities as the US Supreme Court is set to hear a potentially far-reaching case. The high court will consider whether the US Postal Service can be sued for allegedly deliberately withholding mail from a resident. Catch the day's lineup on FreightWaves TV, featuring new episodes of Sense Per Mile, WHAT THE TRUCK?!?, and Truck Tech. Additionally, make sure you head over to live.freightwaves.com, as we are less than two weeks away from F3: Future of Freight Festival. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Several critical developments are pointing toward a rising cost of uncertainty across the logistics landscape. Analysts are trimming expectations for the back half of the year, with Morgan Stanley significantly cutting earnings per share estimates for most truckload and less-than-truckload carriers due to high shipper uncertainty and continuing industrial contraction.. A major regulatory shift occurred when the U.S. Court of Appeals overturned a key Federal Maritime Commission rule regarding detention and demurrage fees, a ruling analyzed in Demurrage dilemma: court overturns FMC's trucking rule. Specifically, the court found the FMC rule that categorically blocked demurrage charges against motor carriers to be "arbitrary and capricious," potentially opening the door for drayage carriers, who often lack leverage, to be billed for these terminal fees once again. Equipment costs are set to rise after President Trump announced a new 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks starting November 1st, as reported in Trump to impose 25% tariff on trucks starting Nov. 1. Since the U.S. imports the majority of these trucks from Mexico, the tariff could significantly raise the total cost of ownership for U.S. fleets, potentially slowing down equipment replacement cycles, even if vehicles nominally fall under the USMCA agreement. North of the border, Canada Post is facing a severe labor crisis linked to its deep financial struggles, having incurred losses of $2.7 billion since 2018, leading to a crucial update in Canada Post reduces contract offer to striking workers, warns of job cuts. The postal operator rescinded a $500 to $1,000 signing bonus and is proposing to eliminate lifetime job security for urban employees while aiming to downsize the workforce through attrition, buyouts, and early retirement to facilitate needed modernization. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Donald Trump's expansion of tariffs, which includes a new 25% duty on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks is set to begin November 1st. This decision follows a federal probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and is aimed at protecting U.S. manufacturers like Peterbilt and Kenworth. The broadcast also covers the escalating labor situation at Canada Post, which has presented a scaled-back offer to 50,000 striking mail carriers that increases the likelihood of job cuts. The company's proposed collective bargaining agreement no longer includes a signing bonus due to its deteriorating financial position and plans to eliminate lifetime job security provisions for urban unit employees. Furthermore, the U.S. Department of Transportation has issued an emergency federal order leading to California and Oregon suspending the issuance of non-domiciled CDLs. This crackdown follows an FMCSA audit that found widespread non-compliance, including that more than 25% of California's non-domiciled CDLs were improperly issued. Don't miss the upcoming FreightWaves TV programming, including Loaded and Rolling and Check Call. You can also join the leaders shaping the future of freight at the F3: Future of Freight Festival in Chattanooga, Tennessee, which is just two weeks away. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. Department of Transportation issued an emergency order on September 26th mandating that states immediately stop issuing or renewing non-domiciled commercial learner's permits and CDLs, targeting licenses often held long after their legal authorization to be in the U.S. had expired. This crackdown follows a nationwide Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration audit that linked at least five fatal crashes this year to improperly issued licenses. Industry analysis predicts a significant surge in bankruptcies especially among small and mid-size carriers who built their business models on skirting the law by using non-compliant labor willing to run severe hours-of-service violations. Capacity issues are also global, as ongoing geopolitical uncertainty keeps ocean carriers away from the critical Suez Canal choke point. Maersk's CEO, Vincent Clerc, stated that shipping firms are unlikely to return until security is “reliably restored” due to unacceptably high risks to crews and vessels. This continued rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope has caused container revenue for the Suez Canal Authority to plummet by as much as 60%, locking in elevated costs and longer transit times across the entire global supply chain. Connecting these domestic compliance costs and global operational headwinds, Werner CEO Derek Leathers recently characterized freight rates as "stably horrible" for years in the address, noting that potential tariffs on Class 8 trucks made in Mexico could further inflate equipment costs and cap future capacity. Ultimately, this market reset is being structurally guaranteed not by a sudden demand boom, but by the simultaneous removal of illegal low-cost capacity domestically and persistent geopolitical risk that maintains a high operational cost ceiling globally. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The core issue involves whether the safety exception of the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act (F4A) shields brokers, like C.H. Robinson, from negligent hiring claims, a question that has caused conflicting decisions across federal circuits. Brokers view this as fundamental to their business model and urgently need the Supreme Court to provide clarity on where the lines are drawn for their legal protection. Turning to infrastructure, the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest U.S. import gateway, has announced plans for a massive new container terminal called the Pier 500 project. This undertaking includes two berths and 3,000 feet of wharf across 200 acres, intended to accommodate ultra-large container ships such as the MSC Irina, which can carry over 24,000 TEUs. This expansion, which is expected to take about 10 years to complete, highlights the significant time required for major port infrastructure to keep pace with the increasing size of global shipping vessels. In the financial sector, we examine Moody's affirmation of Echo Global Logistics' corporate family debt rating at B3, which is considered deep into non-investment grade territory. Despite the persistently challenging freight trucking environment, Moody's held the company's outlook at stable, anticipating that cost saving actions will help offset margin pressure tied to soft freight rates. While leverage remains high, expected to be slightly below 7X debt/EBITDA this year, Echo maintains steady earnings and adequate liquidity. A surprising tech hurdle impacting EV adoption is revealed in a new report showing that nearly one-third of charging attempts fail, leaving the actual First-Time Charge Success Rate (FTCSR) stuck at 71%, despite high charger uptime statistics. This issue stems primarily from fragmentation in the multiple software systems—including the vehicle, charger, and payment network—that must perform a perfect digital handshake to initiate a charge. Furthermore, success rates drop significantly after about three years because older charging stations often cannot be updated to support newer charging protocols.  Finally, the podcast addresses accelerating investment in e-commerce fulfillment, driven by consumers still ordering large items online. Walmart recently announced plans to build a $300 million fulfillment center in Kings Mountain, North Carolina, specifically designed to handle bulky online orders like furniture. This massive 1.2 million square-foot facility is expected to open in 2027, underscoring the ongoing need for specialized infrastructure in the supply chain. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Port of Los Angeles, which handled 10.3 million TEUs in 2024 and forms the busiest U.S. container gateway with Long Beach, plans to build a brand new terminal to accommodate the world's largest container ships. The new Pier 500 project will comprise two berths and 3,000 feet of wharf on 200 acres of land along the Pier 400 channel, with LA currently seeking proposals for a pre-development agreement regarding financial feasibility and other requirements.  In legal news, former Surface Transportation Board member Robert Primus filed a federal lawsuit challenging his August 27th dismissal by President Trump, who removed him without giving a reason. Primus, the sole STB member to vote against the 2023 Canadian Pacific-Kansas City Southern merger, claims his firing violated the law requiring STB members to be removed only for causes like neglect of duty or malfeasance, and he is suing the President, STB Chairman Patrick Fuchs, and the STB.  Walmart announced plans to build a $300 million fulfillment center in Kings Mountain, near Gastonia, North Carolina, which will be a 1.3 million square foot facility expected to open in 2027. This new center is designed to help Walmart serve customers faster, potentially shipping large items, while creating 300 jobs supported by a potential $4 million state job development grant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode conducts a deep dive into the current volatility of the freight market, focusing on how agility is the critical metric for survival and success. Using recent ATBS data, we analyze how successful owner-operators are improving their net income, despite rising fixed costs, especially maintenance, by maintaining stability and focusing on calculating their contribution margin. New tariffs on imported heavy-duty trucks are expected to curb new truck orders, leading to a predicted rise in used truck prices due to scarcity. Meanwhile, on global ocean lanes, Asia-to-US West Coast container rates dropped another 15% last week, forcing carriers to blank about 13% of scheduled sailings to stabilize rates amidst ongoing trade risk . Not all global movement is weak, as the Port of Savannah stands out, having handled over 534,000 TEUs in August, due in part to infrastructure adaptation like the new fast-track routing system. We also cover the major policy fight concerning the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger, which BNSF argues will hurt competition and service, while the merging parties claim it will boost volume with single-line options. In transportation technology, Einride achieved the world's first cabless electric fully autonomous cross-border delivery between Sweden and Norway, proving that autonomous systems can manage complex international regulatory requirements through digital integration. Conversely, the ongoing Canada Post strike is presented as a case study in failing to adapt with workers resisting modernization, leading to private carriers scooping up quickly diverted parcel volumes and the postal service's market share plummeting. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Cincinnati Northern Kentucky International Airport just opened an 80,000 square foot airside warehouse designed for non-express general cargo, marking the first completed project at the new CVG Global Logistics Park. This dedicated area for cargo activity separates it from passenger traffic to increase efficiency, and it exists alongside the primary U.S. air hubs for Amazon Air and DHL Express.  The Port of Savannah shows resilience against trade war fears, handling 534,037 TEUs in August, which is a 9% year-over-year increase and the third highest volume in its history. Although container volumes were robust, totaling over 1.01 million TEUs fiscal year to date, the Port of Savannah did see a decline of 14.3% year-over-year in autos and machinery shipments.  We discuss the bleak outlook for the still-waging Canada Post battle, as industry analysts suggest mail carriers on strike are actively jeopardizing their own jobs. Analysts argue that the striking carriers' demands prevent Canada Post from undertaking necessary restructuring needed to modernize and win back parcel customers who have already fled to courier companies.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's daily update tackles extreme market volatility, starting with the unprecedented regulatory about-face by the California Air Resources Board. CARB has essentially wiped out the two biggest components of their Advanced Clean Fleets rule, including the High Priority Fleets regulation covering fleets over 50 trucks and rules that were set to bar non-ZEV trucks from port operations. We analyze the looming threat of a federal shutdown, noting that while essential safety functions like FMCSA roadside inspections and CBP cargo inspections are expected to continue, critical oversight functions will largely cease. Agencies like the Federal Maritime Commission and the Surface Transportation Board, which handles shipping disputes and vital transportation data, will suspend case processing, potentially leading to increased dwell times at major ports like LA-Long Beach. Moving to efficiency gains, we examine how AI startup Oatway is tackling the “dirty secret of full truckload”—partially filled trailers—by dynamically matching partial shipments with empty capacity on existing FTL run. This innovation optimizes existing infrastructure using machine learning and ELD data, potentially boosting net annual revenue for carriers by up to 30% while cutting shipper costs by up to 50% compared to traditional LTL. In corporate news, Interstate Personnel Services , the parent company of Paschall Truck Lines, is in formal talks to acquire J&R Sugar Trucking, which would create a combined fleet of around 2,000 trucks and 5,000 trailers. This merger strategically adds temperature-controlled refrigerated transport capacity to IPS's existing dry van network, highlighting the current premium placed on reefer capacity. Finally, Texas has halted the issuance of Commercial Driver's Licenses to non-citizens, including DACA recipients and refugees, following a federal directive aimed at tightening commercial licensing rules. Since 2015, Texas has issued almost 52,000 non-domiciled CDLs, and this regulatory move presents an immediate challenge for fleet staffing and recruitment efforts across the state. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

BNSF Railway claims Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern combination will severely hurt competition and service. BNSF's position paper argues that the $85 billion deal will force UP to drive up rates and favor high-density lanes, prompting the railway to urge shippers to contact the Surface Transportation Board with their concerns. Trade tensions are mounting in the trans-Pacific maritime sector as Beijing prepares a regulatory volley in response to U.S. charges on Chinese ships. China amended regulations to allow "necessary countermeasures," potentially including fees on vessels or prohibiting U.S.-service ships from entering or leaving Chinese ports, in retaliation for costly U.S. port fees. Finally, we look at the logistics impact of new U.S. duties on construction and home goods materials. The proclamation introduces a 10% tariff on imported softwood lumber and timber, and a 25% duty on imported kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered wood furniture, all effective starting October 14. Critics caution that these tariffs, which the administration states are aimed at protecting the U.S. wood industry, will inevitably lead to higher costs for American consumers and builders. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Regulatory whiplash in California as the state effectively held a funeral for the two largest components of the Advanced Clean Fleet Rules, including mandates for high-priority fleets and drayage trucks. Despite the official withdrawal of these mandates by CARB, zero-emission vehicle sales are surprisingly growing in the state, suggesting market momentum is now driven by factors beyond regulatory pressure. The ongoing pricing standoff in the parcel sector, where UPS and FedEx are imposing significant peak season surcharges despite projections for muted demand growth, has heated up. Analysts warn that demanding these high fees in a soft market is short-sighted, leading to a major diversion of volume to alternative carriers like Amazon, Walmart, and independent services like OnTrac. Our brief concludes with the tectonic plates shifting in corporate freight strategy, starting with the massive $85 billion UP-NS merger that is already forcing competitors like CSX to seek its own merger partner after a CEO change. Meanwhile, ArcBest unveiled an ambitious plan to double its adjusted earnings per share by 2028 by targeting a highly optimized, asset-based operating ratio of 87% to 90% through technology and cost controls. Finally, we address the industry's perennial challenge of safety, noting that Wyoming currently tops the list for deadly truck crashes by death rate while Texas leads the nation in total fatalities by volume. These sobering statistics are fueling calls from victim advocates for mandatory safety technology, specifically demanding that all new commercial trucks be equipped with Automatic Emergency Braking. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

CSX Corp. announced a surprising leadership change, naming Steve Angel as president and CEO, effective last Sunday, succeeding Joe Hinrichs. The move follows activist investor calls for Hinrichs to step down as CSX's metrics trailed other Class I carriers. California has officially gutted the two largest components of its Advanced Clean Fleets rule that would have impacted trucking in the state. This withdrawal was inevitable after the California Air Resources Board yanked its request for an EPA waiver in the face of the imminent Trump administration. New federal data ranks Wyoming as the deadliest state for truck crashes per capita, followed by New Mexico and Mississippi. You can read more about the findings, based on National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data which also noted that Texas ranked first for the overall total number of fatalities. Tune into FreightWaves TV later today for Check Call with Mary O'Connell and Loaded and Rolling with Thomas Watson. Also, remember that we are less than three weeks away from the Future of Freight Festival (F3) in Chattanooga, Tennessee, so register soon to save money off your ticket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Starting with high stakes legal risks surrounding broker liability, we explore the Supreme Court's scheduled conference to discuss whether to grant certiorari on two landmark cases, Cox v. TQL and Montgomery v. Caribe II, which hinges on interpreting the safety exception in the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act (F4A). We shift gears to financial risks, where dry van contract rates have remained stalled and fell only a marginal 0.3% year-over-year as of early September. This flat rate environment is extremely stressful because the average cost to operate a truck has increased 33% since 2019, compared to only a 17% rise in contract rates over the same period, leading to massive carrier attrition. Operational security is also paramount as cargo theft tactics are becoming incredibly sophisticated, with Mexico serving as the epicenter and accounting for 75% of all North American incidents in Q3. Furthermore, we analyze the surprise leadership shift at CSX, where the board named Steve Angel as the new president and CEO, following activist investor pressure over persistent underperformance metrics compared to other Class I carriers. Finally, we cover the ultimate labor battleground: the fight for driver hours and pay, as the FMCSA proposes pilot programs that could allow for up to 17-hour driving windows. Many drivers argue that the solution is not more hours but mandatory federally-mandated detention pay, suggesting compensation should kick in after just 30 minutes of waiting at docks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All eyes are on Washington today as the Supreme Court is scheduled to discuss whether to grant review in two critical broker liability cases under the F4A. The fundamental issue is whether the safety exception, which allows state action for negligence causing physical harm, extends to third-party logistics providers or brokers. The FMCSA's National Consumer Complaint Database modernization, part of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's broader Pro-Trucker Package, has officially gone live with Phase One. This long overdue tech upgrade is mobile-optimized and creates an official federal mechanism for reporting broker complaints, which can directly influence a company's safety ratings and audit priorities. The Surface Transportation Board is seeking more time to review the proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern by Union Pacific. The board has proposed a procedural schedule that slightly tweaks the original timeline and grants the Justice Department and Department of Transportation an extra 15 days to file their official comments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The biggest global shift is the cancellation of the de minimis rule, which previously offered a duty-free pass for low-value parcels but now adds huge friction by requiring formal customs entries. In response to this turbulence, companies like DHL are pouring millions into compliance, hiring over 880 new customs experts and investing heavily in AI and digital platforms to manage the rising complexity. The U.S. trucking market faces a capacity crisis marked by systemic overcapacity—a 54% surge in for-hire carriers since 2018 compared to only a 1.2% rise in freight volume. This environment has enabled dangerous "chameleon carriers" linked to hundreds of deaths, prompting the FMCSA to issue an emergency rule severely restricting non-domiciled Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDLs). Carriers must prepare for major cost inflation starting October 2025, when the U.S. is set to slap a new 25% import tariff on heavy-duty trucks, hitting an equipment market already reeling from low orders. Adding to regulatory uncertainty, the Department of Justice is seeking to dismiss California's lawsuit over Congress overturning key EPA waivers, even as Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs) make driving easier but eliminate the traditional mechanical knowledge defining professional skill Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Canadian government announced major reform for Canada Post including the end of most door-to-door delivery and reduced frequency, as part of a turnaround plan for the "insolvent" national carrier. This decision comes as the institution, suffering from an outdated business model and protracted labor disputes, is on track to lose US$1.1 billion this year alone, adding to US$3.6 billion in losses since 2018. Singapore's Seatrium Ltd. has completed the sale of its Texas shipyard at the Port of Brownsville to Karpower Valley LLC for around $50 million. The 240-acre facility supports various offshore and marine engineering projects, and the buyer is an affiliate of Karpowership, the global operator of 50 floating power plants. The Port of San Diego has appointed Matthew Vesby as its new Chief Administrative Officer (CAO), tapping into his more than 20 years of public sector experience, including 14 years with the City of San Diego. Vesby will oversee multiple key areas, including Commissioner Services, Human Resources, and IT departments, and is dedicated to supporting staff success.  Stay current on all the biggest trends in transportation and register now for the F3: Future of Freight Festival, happening October 21-22. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A "relentless" surge has happened in U.S-Mexico trade, which reached a staggering $840 billion in 2024 and jumped another 21% year-to-date in 2025. Companies like Echo Global Logistics are capitalizing on this growth, accelerating investment by opening a new office in Monterrey, Mexico, a key hub in the "golden triangle" of manufacturing. Nearshoring significantly enhances supply chain efficiency, cutting transit times from finished product to a U.S. door down to just 24 to 72 hours, far superior to the 14 to 20 days typically needed for freight coming from Asia. Shifting focus to the Pacific ports, we analyze the sharp, "truly historic decline" in U.S. container imports, projected to fall 15.7% for the remainder of 2025, driven by China tariffs and shipment front-loading. This soft volume is "absolutely hammering" the domestic trucking sector, leading to significant cuts in Q3 and Q4 earnings estimates for major asset-based truckload carriers like Schneider and Werner. Small carriers are feeling a "brutal" cash flow crisis, illustrated by the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of H5 Transport, which relied heavily on factoring to make weekly payroll. Union Pacific's proposed merger with Norfolk Southern is still on, aimed at achieving $1 billion in annual cost savings. We discuss why industry veterans caution that the secured lifetime job protection guarantees for the SMART-TD union might become a "ticket to misery" for employees forced into undesirable work or relocations. Ultimately, navigating the freight industry's future requires adapting to three massive disruptive forces: effectively integrating AI and FreightTech, managing geopolitical shifts and trade policies, and adjusting to changing workforce dynamics due to automation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. government has filed its arguments in the lawsuit concerning California's claim that Congress was out of line when it yanked EPA waivers allowing policies like the Advanced Clean Trucks rule, a topic covered in Federal goverment fires back in court over California waiver cancellation. Susquehanna Financial Group has significantly cut earnings estimates for asset-based truckload carriers, reflecting soft spot rates, tender rejections, and a muted outlook for peak season. As reported in Truckload earnings estimates cut heading into Q3 reports, the cuts ahead of the third-quarter earnings season ranged from mid-single to low double-digit percentages for carriers including Schneider National and Werner Enterprises. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is recommending that trucks over 10,000 lbs. be equipped with driver monitoring systems, following a report on a 2023 fatal crash linked to trucker inattention. NTSB Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy asserted in NTSB to Feds: Require truck-driver monitoring that stronger vehicle safety standards and preventative technologies could have prevented this chain-reaction collision. Tune in later today to FreightWaves TV for an episode of The Long Haul with Adam Wingfield. Remember that you can still take advantage of a $500 deal for general admission to the F3: Future of Freight Festival, which is less than a month away. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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This week's deep dive unpacks the relentless surge of nearshoring at the U.S.-Mexico border, where year-to-date trade has surpassed the $507 billion mark, cementing Mexico's place as the number one U.S. trade partner. We examine how logistics firms like Uber Freight are heavily integrating customs, brokerage, and transportation services to digitalize the “black hole” at the border and navigate the growing complexity of USMCA rules and new tariffs. We shift from land to air to analyze how the U.S. policy ending the de minimis exemption for small parcels from China is hammering global carriers. This single change trimmed FedEx's Q1 operating income by $150 million and created a projected $1 billion fiscal year headwind, forcing the company to cut its Trans-Pacific capacity by 25% and redeploy assets to the profitable Asia-to-Europe lane. Finally, we explore the domestic physical limits currently squeezing the supply chain, including the severe crisis on the Mississippi River where drought-driven low water levels are forcing capacity cuts and causing barge rates to jump nearly 50% . We also discuss the immediate pressure on the new Federal Highway Administration administrator, Sean McMaster, to prioritize the persistent lack of critically needed truck parking capacity across the country. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Uber Freight is betting big on cross-border trade, deepening its imprint in Mexico by integrating customs, brokerage, and transportation services to help shippers navigate the complex trade environment, especially as U.S.-Mexico trade has surged 21% this year. The company uses a digitized method to provide visibility at the border, which historically has been referred to as the "black hole" in logistics, and helps customers avoid extra duties or delays due to shifting regulations like USMCA rules of origin. President Trump has voiced his approval for the proposed $85 billion merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, calling Union Pacific a "great railroad". If approved by the Surface Transportation Board (STB), this deal would create the nation's largest railroad, boasting 52,000 miles of track across 43 states. Volvo Trucks North America has also launched Load Finder, a new, free load board designed to help carriers reduce empty miles and deadhead operations. Developed in partnership with Canadian-based freight tech company Class8, the platform aggregates available loads from over 40 sources and integrates into the existing Volvo Connect system for customers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Amazon has aggressively expanded its third-party logistics footprint. They opened their Multi-Channel Fulfillment service to merchants on rival platforms like Shein, Shopify, and Walmart, leveraging their scale to become the default logistics backbone for e-commerce. We analyze the major corporate reality shift in Less-Than-Truckload as FedEx Freight remains firmly on track to become an independent public company by June 2026, trading on the NYSE as FDXF. Despite a constrained LTL market due to a weak industrial economy, FedEx Freight announced a 5.9% general rate increase taking effect January 5th, driven by spin-off cost pressures and rising wages. The episode shares a stark economic warning of "profitless prosperity," which projects steady, slow expansion for US GDP and freight activity through 2029, yet requires operators to fight hard for margins. Persistent inflation is expected, fueled by factors like labor scarcity, fiscal deficits, and rising energy demand, making these rate increases likely to stick. Adding to the inflation headache, the weighted average U.S. tariff rate has climbed to 16.4%, the highest level seen since the 1930s, which is expected to generate 1.3% to 1.4% inflation. We also cover capacity dynamics, noting that while the Outbound Tender Rejection Index remains low (stuck just over 5%) signaling persistent excess capacity, capacity exits are expected to continue as smaller carriers struggle to afford replacing aging truck fleets. Finally, we address critical regulatory changes related to risk and driver welfare, starting with the Department of Transportation launching a major crackdown on cargo theft after a spike of more than 90% between 2021 and 2024. New legislation is also moving fast to ban predatory lease-purchase programs, which were concluded by an FMCSA task force to be "irredeemable tools of fraud and driver oppression" that shift the financial burden onto drivers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices