Podcasts about us trade representative

P.M. Edition for July 24. Today an FDA committee voted to increase access to six of seven peptides. Those are substances that haven't undergone regulatory approval, but they're promoted on social media and promise physical transformations like better skin. We hear from WSJ health and wellness reporter Alex Janin about what the vote means and whether it paves the way for a peptide gold rush. Plus, new tariffs went into effect today intended to combat forced labor, and President Trump also threatened new tariffs on the European Union. Journal trade and economic policy reporter Gavin Bade discusses the future of President Trump's tariff agenda. And measles cases in the U.S. this year have already surpassed last year's number, reaching a three-decade high. Alex Ossola hosts. And for more on peptides, listen to our What's News Sunday episode. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

DOCKET ALERTS:   After SecDef Hegseth ordered testosterone testing for all troops over 30 and offered hormone replacement therapy to all, Judge Ana Reyes ordered the government to explain how this is different from the healthcare for trans men which they just banned.    On Tuesday, a judge in Florida ordered Trump to turn over his financial records to the BBC in his defamation trollsuit. Turns out, when you say you've been damaged to the tune of a $10 billion, they make you show your work!   Every House Democrat signed a discharge petition to force a floor vote on Rep. Jamie Raskin's No Corrupt Agreements Requiring Taxpayer Expenditures Benefitting Lawbreakers and Assorted Non-Prosecution Covenants, Handouts, and Emoluments Act, AKA the NO CARTE BLANCHE Act.   MAIN SHOW:   After his first two attempts to steal Congress's tariff power were blocked in the courts, Trump has now reached back 90 years for the next tool. Sure the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act massively deepened and extended the Great Depression. But Trump is really mad at Canada, so maybe this time it won't massively backfire?   Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative announced a new wave of tariffs on 86 countries — putatively to retaliate against countries that sell or import goods created using child labor. Inflation is fun!   Nintendo is being sued by customers who bought Switch devices during the first round of illegal tariffs. They figure if the company is getting a refund from the government, they ought to get a refund from the company.   The FBI subpoenaed five New York Times journalists over reporting on the president's Qatari bribe jet. Claiming a national security emergency, the DOJ seized their phone records and demanded that they testify before a grand jury. This required prosecutors to disregard binding Second Circuit precedent and the DOJ's own published regulations — but Acting AG Todd Blanche said it was cool. At a hearing on Thursday over the motion to quash, Judge Arun Subramanian told the government to withdraw the subpoenas or he'd quash them. Eventually the DOJ agreed to withdraw, but now the court wants to know how the Justice Department came to tell so many whoppers to him, the magistrate, and opposing counsel.   Talbott v. Trump [Trans service members] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69583866/talbott-v-trump   Judge says Trump must hand over financial records to BBC https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/21/trum-bbc-lawsuit-finances   Trump v. BBC https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72040010/trump-v-british-broadcasting-corporation/   Raskin HR 7007 [No CARTE BLANCHE Act] https://democrats-judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/hr7007_ans.pdf   Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on President Trump Imposing Section 338 Tariffs on Canada https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-president-trump-imposing-section-338-tariffs-canada   Hoffert v. Nintendo [seeking consumer recovery of tariff refunds; docket via CourtListener] https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.wawd.361585/   Nintendo v. USA [seeking corporate IEEPA tariff refund; docket via CourtListener] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72373888/nintendo-of-america-inc-v-united-states-of-america/   CIT Rule 25-02 https://www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/files/Administrative%20Order%2025-02.pdf   CIT Rule 26-01 (July 13, 2026) https://www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/files/Administrative%20Order%2026-01.pdf   In re Grand Jury Subpoenas Dated July 10, 2026 https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/73641399/in-re-grand-jury-subpoenas-dated-july-10-2026/   Show Links: https://www.lawandchaospod.com/ BlueSky: @LawAndChaosPod Threads: @LawAndChaosPod Twitter: @LawAndChaosPod  

Former U.S. Senator Jon Tester of Montana joins us on behalf of the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee - Minority to discuss the financial strain U.S. farmers are under due to high costs including fuel and inputs. Ambassador Gregg Doud, former chief agricultural negotiator for the Office of the US Trade Representative, talks about the priorities of the U.S. Milk Producers Federation. And Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor shares perspective on 2026 crops and the factors impacting his esitmates.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's David Gura sat down with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on "The Asia Trade" to discuss the section 301 investigation on Brazil, the trade surplus with Switzerland, and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific.West Texas Intermediate traded above $80 a barrel after adding more than 11% in the previous three sessions, as the US continued its attacks on Iran in a bid to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Gasoil prices, however, were a touch weaker in the previous session.Equity-index futures pointed to declines in Japan and South Korea, while those for Hong Kong and Australia indicated gains. Earlier, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, while a US semiconductor gauge pared some of its losses to finish down more than 2%. For a look at the markets we spoke to Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist at Baird.For a look at trade across the world, we bring you a special interview, Bloomberg's David Gura sat down with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the section 301 investigation on Brazil, the trade surplus with Switzerland, and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This evening, we examine the day's market movements with Sanlam Private Wealth, unpack SA's appearance before the US Trade Representative hearings with the Efficient Group, discuss the next steps in First Abu Dhabi Bank's licensing application with Denker Capital, explore Sarb's new QR payment standard and what it means for digital payments, learn more about the third edition of the Africa Unlocked conference with Standard Bank, and, in our SMME feature, we explore the world of confectionaries with ARK Provisions. SAfm Market Update - Podcasts and live stream

The Ag Economy Barometer dropped to 113 in June, with current conditions at 102 and future expectations at 106. Cattle groups oppose the US Trade Representative's potential exemption of Brazilian beef from Section 301 tariffs. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is advocating for ivermectin in livestock feed to combat the New World screwworm spreading in Texas.

Send us Fan Mail00:00 Brought to You by TAB Quartz00:20 Intro00:30 US Trade Rep to Review Quartz Safeguard02:31 A Word from TAB Surfaces 03:40 Calif. Board Heads Toward Quartz Ban05:23 Caesarstone Shows Down 1Q 202607:05 LX Hausys Begins Design Council08:45 Neolith Global Summit; Ciot Partnership11:37 Brazil Stone Experience in Washington12:58 ISFA Salt Lake Summit in June14:14 Outro14:40 Brought to You by TAB QuartzRadio Stone Update is presented on the second and fourth Wednesdays every month at 9 a.m. everywhere on Earth with the latest news and insights in hard surfaces. Check our archives at www.radiostoneupdate.com.

Jamieson Greer, Trade Representative of the United States, signaled cautious optimism that US-China trade relations are stabilizing, with progress on agriculture purchases and rare earth supplies, though tariffs and supply chain issues remain. He speaks exclusively to Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern, on the sidelines of the US-China summit in Beijing on "Bloomberg: The Asia Trade".See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI optimism, strong corporate earnings and a resilient economy have powered stocks to successive record highs, driven by bets that spending on artificial intelligence will continue to fuel growth. The rally has also overshadowed mounting concerns that crude oil above $100 a barrel could reignite inflation and cloud the outlook for central banks and the global economy. We speak to Mark Cudmore, Global Leader of the Markets Live Team at Bloomberg News. Plus - Jamieson Greer, Trade Representative of the United States, signaled cautious optimism that US-China trade relations are stabilizing, with progress on agriculture purchases and rare earth supplies, though tariffs and supply chain issues remain. He speaks exclusively to Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern, on the sidelines of the US-China summit in Beijing on "Bloomberg: The Asia Trade".See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A review of the week's major US international tax-related news. In this edition:  US House and Senate to resume budget reconciliation process – IRS reinstates "significant issue" letter ruling program – US Court of International Trade rules against Trump Administration's temporary 10% global tariffs – US Trade Representative releases annual Special 301 Report on global IP.

High fertilizer costs in the agriculture industry are an ongoing issue. With a particular focus on the impact of countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Russia and Morocco. The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) argues that these duties have increased fertilizer costs for wheat growers by nearly $1 billion over five years, equating to approximately $20 per acre, which significantly affects profitability

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer joins Annmarie Hordern on Bloomberg TV to discuss the idea that the US is insulated from supply chain effects from the Strait of Hormuz, as well as to discuss the Trump administration’s perceived shortfall of the World Trade Organization and the possibility of a returning to a 20% tariff level with China. Greer says, “I see stability with China over the next year” as the nations prepare for talks in May.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From sweeping tariffs to threats of military action and withdrawal from international institutions, Trump has demonstrated a willingness to break with the United States' approach to international relations. When the US shifts from global order architect to challenger, what kind of system emerges, and how do other countries react? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with former US Trade Representative and Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman to discuss.Michael Froman tells Ian Bremmer that under Trump's second term, he's been less surprised by a single policy shift than by how quickly other countries have adapted to them. As allies hedge and adversaries like China step into new leadership roles, they unpack how the world order is evolving and discuss the most pressing issues. Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

From sweeping tariffs to threats of military action and withdrawal from international institutions, Trump has demonstrated a willingness to break with the United States' approach to international relations. When the US shifts from global order architect to challenger, what kind of system emerges, and how do other countries react? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with former US Trade Representative and Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman to discuss.Michael Froman tells Ian Bremmer that under Trump's second term, he's been less surprised by a single policy shift than by how quickly other countries have adapted to them. As allies hedge and adversaries like China step into new leadership roles, they unpack how the world order is evolving and discuss the most pressing issues. Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:1) The Trump administration is working to narrow its broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products that companies find difficult to calculate and the European Union wants reined in as part of its pending trade deal with the US, a person familiar with the matter said. The US Trade Representative’s Office is scrambling to resolve complications spawned last year by the Commerce Department’s efforts to rush out President Trump’s tariff agenda, the person said. The White House has communicated to companies that adjustments are in the works, but details and timing remain unclear. 2) President Trump said his administration has rescinded the “endangerment finding,” a landmark scientific determination that greenhouse gases pose a threat to human health and welfare. The 2009 finding serves as the legal foundation for a variety of environmental rules, including federal climate standards for cars and trucks. Trump said he’s also repealing those vehicle-related standards. The decision to repeal, which has been telegraphed for months, lays the groundwork for unwinding more federal climate regulations, according to environmental and legal experts. Thursday’s announcement, made alongside Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin, marks the administration’s most consequential climate rollback, as well as its biggest deregulatory move.3) A Saturday shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security is all but inevitable after the Senate failed to advance a funding bill and headed out on a week-long recess without a deal regarding new limits on immigration enforcement. The Senate vote to begin debate on a year-long DHS bill without enforcement changes failed 52 to 47. A Republican attempt to get unanimous consent to pass a stopgap DHS bill also failed. Many department employees will be expected to work without pay during a shutdown. But a prolonged fight risks roiling workers like Transportation Security Administration employees at airports. Those carrying out immigration enforcement activities at Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection will likely be paid even during a longer shutdown by funds allocated under President Trump’s tax bill.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Farm Aid & Policy UpdateAdditional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out.With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation.Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown.It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales.Major Winter Storm RiskA major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch.Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible. Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern.US–China Trade WatchUS and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security.China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China's pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes.Europe, Greenland & TariffsPresident Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum.He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover.Grain Market RecapSoybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65.Support came from a slow start to Brazil's soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans.Global Protein TradeChina has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada's cattle industry.Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions.India & Wheat ExportsIndia has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies.India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.

The US accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices in the semiconductor sector, but is declining to impose additional tariffs on chip imports until at least mid-2027. The Office of the US Trade Representative on Tuesday released the findings of a nearly yearlong inquiry into China's chip sector that was launched in the final weeks of the former President Joe Biden's administration, with the expectation the matter would be resolved under President Donald Trump. In the intervening months, Trump struck a truce with Chinese President Xi Jinping to end a trade war that rattled global markets. For more on the relationship in regards to US-China in the technology space, we spoke to Tiffany Hsiao, Portfolio Manager at Matthews International Capital Management. Plus - the US economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest pace in two years, bolstered by resilient consumer and business spending and calmer trade policies. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a 4.3% annualized pace, a Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed Tuesday. That was higher than all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey and followed 3.8% growth in the prior period. We heard from Chris Kampitsis, Managing Partner, Barnum Financial Group.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The decision to permit exports of Nvidia’s H200 semiconductors to China is a “standalone” matter within the broader US-China trading relationship, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says on Bloomberg. He discusses this, tariffs and the latest in the TikTok deal with hosts Lisa Abramowicz and Dani Burger.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"The The Office of the US Trade Representative has released their 2024 Piracy Report listing the notorious markets for counterfeiting and piracy. The practice is alive and well. This report dedicated an entire section just to music. We will tell you what it said."

The growing list of bankruptcies in trucking has caught up a significant new participant from the freight tech part of the business, as ⁠VC-backed Zuum files for chapter 11 protection⁠ with assets and liabilities listed in the range of $10 million to $50 million. The US Trade Representative officially announced the one-year suspension of ⁠port fees on Chinese ships⁠ docking at American ports. This suspension, effective until November 10, 2025, is part of a wide-ranging trade agreement where China simultaneously dropped retaliatory fees on U.S.-flagged vessels. A legislative package designed to end the 40-day government shutdown includes a major earmark: ⁠$4.9 million for trucker training in North Carolina⁠. Secured by Senator Thom Tillis, this appropriation for Southeastern Community College is seen as unusual because it is the ninth highest earmark among 360 others and dwarfs typical federal grants for truck driver training programs. Plus, check out the FreightWaves TV lineup, including ⁠Loaded and Rolling⁠ with Thomas Wasson. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The growing list of bankruptcies in trucking has caught up a significant new participant from the freight tech part of the business, as VC-backed Zuum files for chapter 11 protection with assets and liabilities listed in the range of $10 million to $50 million. The US Trade Representative officially announced the one-year suspension of port fees on Chinese ships docking at American ports. This suspension, effective until November 10, 2025, is part of a wide-ranging trade agreement where China simultaneously dropped retaliatory fees on U.S.-flagged vessels. A legislative package designed to end the 40-day government shutdown includes a major earmark: $4.9 million for trucker training in North Carolina. Secured by Senator Thom Tillis, this appropriation for Southeastern Community College is seen as unusual because it is the ninth highest earmark among 360 others and dwarfs typical federal grants for truck driver training programs. Plus, check out the FreightWaves TV lineup, including Loaded and Rolling with Thomas Wasson. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A version of this essay has been published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-from-crisis-to-advantage-how-india-can-outplay-the-trump-tariff-gambit-13923031.htmlA simple summary of the recent brouhaha about President Trump's imposition of 25% tariffs on India as well as his comment on India's ‘dead economy' is the following from Shakespeare's Macbeth: “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”. Trump further imposed punitive tariffs totalling 50% on August 6th allegedly for India funding Russia's war machine via buying oil.As any negotiator knows, a good opening gambit is intended to set the stage for further parleys, so that you could arrive at a negotiated settlement that is acceptable to both parties. The opening gambit could well be a maximalist statement, or one's ‘dream outcome', the opposite of which is ‘the walkway point' beyond which you are simply not willing to make concessions. The usual outcome is somewhere in between these two positions or postures.Trump is both a tough negotiator, and prone to making broad statements from which he has no problem retreating later. It's down-and-dirty boardroom tactics that he's bringing to international trade. Therefore I think Indians don't need to get rattled. It's not the end of the world, and there will be climbdowns and adjustments. Think hard about the long term.I was on a panel discussion on this topic on TV just hours after Trump made his initial 25% announcement, and I mentioned an interplay between geo-politics and geo-economics. Trump is annoyed that his Ukraine-Russia play is not making much headway, and also that BRICS is making progress towards de-dollarization. India is caught in this crossfire (‘collateral damage') but the geo-economic facts on the ground are not favorable to Trump.I am in general agreement with Trump on his objectives of bringing manufacturing and investment back to the US, but I am not sure that he will succeed, and anyway his strong-arm tactics may backfire. I consider below what India should be prepared to do to turn adversity into opportunity.The anti-Thucydides Trap and the baleful influence of Whitehall on Deep StateWhat is remarkable, though, is that Trump 2.0 seems to be indistinguishable from the Deep State: I wondered last month if the Deep State had ‘turned' Trump. The main reason many people supported Trump in the first place was the damage the Deep State was wreaking on the US under the Obama-Biden regime. But it appears that the resourceful Deep State has now co-opted Trump for its agenda, and I can only speculate how.The net result is that there is the anti-Thucydides Trap: here is the incumbent power, the US, actively supporting the insurgent power, China, instead of suppressing it, as Graham Allison suggested as the historical pattern. It, in all fairness, did not start with Trump, but with Nixon in China in 1971. In 1985, the US trade deficit with China was $6 million. In 1986, $1.78 billion. In 1995, $35 billion.But it ballooned after China entered the WTO in 2001. $202 billion in 2005; $386 billion in 2022.In 2025, after threatening China with 150% tariffs, Trump retreated by postponing them; besides he has caved in to Chinese demands for Nvidia chips and for exemptions from Iran oil sanctions if I am not mistaken.All this can be explained by one word: leverage. China lured the US with the siren-song of the cost-leader ‘China price', tempting CEOs and Wall Street, who sleepwalked into surrender to the heft of the Chinese supply chain.Now China has cornered Trump via its monopoly over various things, the most obvious of which is rare earths. Trump really has no option but to give in to Chinese blackmail. That must make him furious: in addition to his inability to get Putin to listen to him, Xi is also ignoring him. Therefore, he will take out his frustrations on others, such as India, the EU, Japan, etc. Never mind that he's burning bridges with them.There's a Malayalam proverb that's relevant here: “angadiyil thottathinu ammayodu”. Meaning, you were humiliated in the marketplace, so you come home and take it out on your mother. This is quite likely what Trump is doing, because he believes India et al will not retaliate. In fact Japan and the EU did not retaliate, but gave in, also promising to invest large sums in the US. India could consider a different path: not active conflict, but not giving in either, because its equations with the US are different from those of the EU or Japan.Even the normally docile Japanese are beginning to notice.Beyond that, I suggested a couple of years ago that Deep State has a plan to enter into a condominium agreement with China, so that China gets Asia, and the US gets the Americas and the Pacific/Atlantic. This is exactly like the Vatican-brokered medieval division of the world between Spain and Portugal, and it probably will be equally bad for everyone else. And incidentally it makes the Quad infructuous, and deepens distrust of American motives.The Chinese are sure that they have achieved the condominium, or rather forced the Americans into it. Here is a headline from the Financial Express about their reaction to the tariffs: they are delighted that the principal obstacle in their quest for hegemony, a US-India military and economic alliance, is being blown up by Trump, and they lose no opportunity to deride India as not quite up to the mark, whereas they and the US have achieved a G2 detente.Two birds with one stone: gloat about the breakdown in the US-India relationship, and exhibit their racist disdain for India yet again.They laugh, but I bet India can do an end-run around them. As noted above, the G2 is a lot like the division of the world into Spanish and Portuguese spheres of influence in 1494. Well, that didn't end too well for either of them. They had their empires, which they looted for gold and slaves, but it made them fat, dumb and happy. The Dutch, English, and French capitalized on more dynamic economies, flexible colonial systems, and aggressive competition, overtaking the Iberian powers in global influence by the 17th century. This is a salutary historical parallel.I have long suspected that the US Deep State is being led by the nose by the malign Whitehall (the British Deep State): I call it the ‘master-blaster' syndrome. On August 6th, there was indirect confirmation of this in ex-British PM Boris Johnson's tweet about India. Let us remember he single-handedly ruined the chances of a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine War in 2022. Whitehall's mischief and meddling all over, if you read between the lines.Did I mention the British Special Force's views? Ah, Whitehall is getting a bit sloppy in its propaganda.Wait, so is India important (according to Whitehall) or unimportant (according to Trump)?Since I am very pro-American, I have a word of warning to Trump: you trust perfidious Albion at your peril. Their country is ruined, and they will not rest until they ruin yours too.I also wonder if there are British paw-prints in a recent and sudden spate of racist attacks on Indians in Ireland. A 6-year old girl was assaulted and kicked in the private parts. A nurse was gang-raped by a bunch of teenagers. Ireland has never been so racist against Indians (yes, I do remember the sad case of Savita Halappanavar, but that was religious bigotry more than racism). And I remember sudden spikes in anti-Indian attacks in Australia and Canada, both British vassals.There is no point in Indians whining about how the EU and America itself are buying more oil, palladium, rare earths, uranium etc. from Russia than India is. I am sorry to say this, but Western nations are known for hypocrisy. For example, exactly 80 years ago they dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, but not on Germany or Italy. Why? The answer is uncomfortable. Lovely post-facto rationalization, isn't it?Remember the late lamented British East India Company that raped and pillaged India?Applying the three winning strategies to geo-economicsAs a professor of business strategy and innovation, I emphasize to my students that there are three broad ways of gaining an advantage over others: 1. Be the cost leader, 2. Be the most customer-intimate player, 3. Innovate. The US as a nation is patently not playing the cost leader; it does have some customer intimacy, but it is shrinking; its strength is in innovation.If you look at comparative advantage, the US at one time had strengths in all three of the above. Because it had the scale of a large market (and its most obvious competitors in Europe were decimated by world wars) America did enjoy an ability to be cost-competitive, especially as the dollar is the global default reserve currency. It demonstrated this by pushing through the Plaza Accords, forcing the Japanese yen to appreciate, destroying their cost advantage.In terms of customer intimacy, the US is losing its edge. Take cars for example: Americans practically invented them, and dominated the business, but they are in headlong retreat now because they simply don't make cars that people want outside the US: Japanese, Koreans, Germans and now Chinese do. Why were Ford and GM forced to leave the India market? Their “world cars” are no good in value-conscious India and other emerging markets.Innovation, yes, has been an American strength. Iconic Americans like Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, and Steve Jobs led the way in product and process innovation. US universities have produced idea after idea, and startups have ignited Silicon Valley. In fact Big Tech and aerospace/armaments are the biggest areas where the US leads these days.The armaments and aerospace tradeThat is pertinent because of two reasons: one is Trump's peevishness at India's purchase of weapons from Russia (even though that has come down from 70+% of imports to 36% according to SIPRI); two is the fact that there are significant services and intangible imports by India from the US, of for instance Big Tech services, even some routed through third countries like Ireland.Armaments and aerospace purchases from the US by India have gone up a lot: for example the Apache helicopters that arrived recently, the GE 404 engines ordered for India's indigenous fighter aircraft, Predator drones and P8-i Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft. I suspect Trump is intent on pushing India to buy F-35s, the $110-million dollar 5th generation fighters.Unfortunately, the F-35 has a spotty track record. There were two crashes recently, one in Albuquerque in May, and the other on July 31 in Fresno, and that's $220 million dollars gone. Besides, the spectacle of a hapless British-owned F-35B sitting, forlorn, in the rain, in Trivandrum airport for weeks, lent itself to trolls, who made it the butt of jokes. I suspect India has firmly rebuffed Trump on this front, which has led to his focus on Russian arms.There might be other pushbacks too. Personally, I think India does need more P-8i submarine hunter-killer aircraft to patrol the Bay of Bengal, but India is exerting its buyer power. There are rumors of pauses in orders for Javelin and Stryker missiles as well.On the civilian aerospace front, I am astonished that all the media stories about Air India 171 and the suspicion that Boeing and/or General Electric are at fault have disappeared without a trace. Why? There had been the big narrative push to blame the poor pilots, and now that there is more than reasonable doubt that these US MNCs are to blame, there is a media blackout?Allegations about poor manufacturing practices by Boeing in North Charleston, South Carolina by whistleblowers have been damaging for the company's brand: this is where the 787 Dreamliners are put together. It would not be surprising if there is a slew of cancellations of orders for Boeing aircraft, with customers moving to Airbus. Let us note Air India and Indigo have placed some very large, multi-billion dollar orders with Boeing that may be in jeopardy.India as a consuming economy, and the services trade is hugely in the US' favorMany observers have pointed out the obvious fact that India is not an export-oriented economy, unlike, say, Japan or China. It is more of a consuming economy with a large, growing and increasingly less frugal population, and therefore it is a target for exporters rather than a competitor for exporting countries. As such, the impact of these US tariffs on India will be somewhat muted, and there are alternative destinations for India's exports, if need be.While Trump has focused on merchandise trade and India's modest surplus there, it is likely that there is a massive services trade, which is in the US' favor. All those Big Tech firms, such as Microsoft, Meta, Google and so on run a surplus in the US' favor, which may not be immediately evident because they route their sales through third countries, e.g. Ireland.These are the figures from the US Trade Representative, and quite frankly I don't believe them: there are a lot of invisible services being sold to India, and the value of Indian data is ignored.In addition to the financial implications, there are national security concerns. Take the case of Microsoft's cloud offering, Azure, which arbitrarily turned off services to Indian oil retailer Nayara on the flimsy grounds that the latter had substantial investment from Russia's Rosneft. This is an example of jurisdictional over-reach by US companies, which has dire consequences. India has been lax about controlling Big Tech, and this has to change.India is Meta's largest customer base. Whatsapp is used for practically everything. Which means that Meta has access to enormous amounts of Indian customer data, for which India is not even enforcing local storage. This is true of all other Big Tech (see OpenAI's Sam Altman below): they are playing fast and loose with Indian data, which is not in India's interest at all.Data is the new oil, says The Economist magazine. So how much should Meta, OpenAI et al be paying for Indian data? Meta is worth trillions of dollars, OpenAI half a trillion. How much of that can be attributed to Indian data?There is at least one example of how India too can play the digital game: UPI. Despite ham-handed efforts to now handicap UPI with a fee (thank you, brilliant government bureaucrats, yes, go ahead and kill the goose that lays the golden eggs), it has become a contender in a field that has long been dominated by the American duopoly of Visa and Mastercard. In other words, India can scale up and compete.It is unfortunate that India has not built up its own Big Tech behind a firewall as has been done behind the Great Firewall of China. But it is not too late. Is it possible for India-based cloud service providers to replace US Big Tech like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure? Yes, there is at least one player in that market: Zoho.Second, what are the tariffs on Big Tech exports to India these days? What if India were to decide to impose a 50% tax on revenue generated in India through advertisement or through sales of services, mirroring the US's punitive taxes on Indian goods exports? Let me hasten to add that I am not suggesting this, it is merely a hypothetical argument.There could also be non-tariff barriers as China has implemented, but not India: data locality laws, forced use of local partners, data privacy laws like the EU's GDPR, anti-monopoly laws like the EU's Digital Markets Act, strict application of IPR laws like 3(k) that absolutely prohibits the patenting of software, and so on. India too can play legalistic games. This is a reason US agri-products do not pass muster: genetically modified seeds, and milk from cows fed with cattle feed from blood, offal and ground-up body parts.Similarly, in the ‘information' industry, India is likely to become the largest English-reading country in the world. I keep getting come-hither emails from the New York Times offering me $1 a month deals on their product: they want Indian customers. There are all these American media companies present in India, untrammelled by content controls or taxes. What if India were to give a choice to Bloomberg, Reuters, NYTimes, WaPo, NPR et al: 50% tax, or exit?This attack on peddlers of fake information and manufacturing consent I do suggest, and I have been suggesting for years. It would make no difference whatsoever to India if these media outlets were ejected, and they surely could cover India (well, basically what they do is to demean India) just as well from abroad. Out with them: good riddance to bad rubbish.What India needs to doI believe India needs to play the long game. It has to use its shatrubodha to realize that the US is not its enemy: in Chanakyan terms, the US is the Far Emperor. The enemy is China, or more precisely the Chinese Empire. Han China is just a rump on their south-eastern coast, but it is their conquered (and restive) colonies such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Manchuria and Inner Mongolia, that give them their current heft.But the historical trends are against China. It has in the past had stable governments for long periods, based on strong (and brutal) imperial power. Then comes the inevitable collapse, when the center falls apart, and there is absolute chaos. It is quite possible, given various trends, including demographic changes, that this may happen to China by 2050.On the other hand, (mostly thanks, I acknowledge, to China's manufacturing growth), the center of gravity of the world economy has been steadily shifting towards Asia. The momentum might swing towards India if China stumbles, but in any case the era of Atlantic dominance is probably gone for good. That was, of course, only a historical anomaly. Asia has always dominated: see Angus Maddison's magisterial history of the world economy, referred to below as well.I am reminded of the old story of the king berating his court poet for calling him “the new moon” and the emperor “the full moon”. The poet escaped being punished by pointing out that the new moon is waxing and the full moon is waning.This is the long game India has to keep in mind. Things are coming together for India to a great extent: in particular the demographic dividend, improved infrastructure, fiscal prudence, and the increasing centrality of the Indian Ocean as the locus of trade and commerce.India can attempt to gain competitive advantage in all three ways outlined above:* Cost-leadership. With a large market (assuming companies are willing to invest at scale), a low-cost labor force, and with a proven track-record of frugal innovation, India could well aim to be a cost-leader in selected areas of manufacturing. But this requires government intervention in loosening monetary policy and in reducing barriers to ease of doing business* Customer-intimacy. What works in highly value-conscious India could well work in other developing countries. For instance, the economic environment in ASEAN is largely similar to India's, and so Indian products should appeal to their residents; similarly with East Africa. Thus the Indian Ocean Rim with its huge (and in Africa's case, rapidly growing) population should be a natural fit for Indian products* Innovation. This is the hardest part, and it requires a new mindset in education and industry, to take risks and work at the bleeding edge of technology. In general, Indians have been content to replicate others' innovations at lower cost or do jugaad (which cannot scale up). To do real, disruptive innovation, first of all the services mindset should transition to a product mindset (sorry, Raghuram Rajan). Second, the quality of human capital must be improved. Third, there should be patient risk capital. Fourth, there should be entrepreneurs willing to try risky things. All of these are difficult, but doable.And what is the end point of this game? Leverage. The ability to compel others to buy from you.China has demonstrated this through its skill at being a cost-leader in industry after industry, often hollowing out entire nations through means both fair and foul. These means include far-sighted industrial policy including the acquisition of skills, technology, and raw materials, as well as hidden subsidies that support massive scaling, which ends up driving competing firms elsewhere out of business. India can learn a few lessons from them. One possible lesson is building capabilities, as David Teece of UC Berkeley suggested in 1997, that can span multiple products, sectors and even industries: the classic example is that of Nikon, whose optics strength helps it span industries such as photography, printing, and photolithography for chip manufacturing. Here is an interesting snapshot of China's capabilities today.2025 is, in a sense, a point of inflection for India just as the crisis in 1991 was. India had been content to plod along at the Nehruvian Rate of Growth of 2-3%, believing this was all it could achieve, as a ‘wounded civilization'. From that to a 6-7% growth rate is a leap, but it is not enough, nor is it testing the boundaries of what India can accomplish.1991 was the crisis that turned into an opportunity by accident. 2025 is a crisis that can be carefully and thoughtfully turned into an opportunity.The Idi Amin syndrome and the 1000 Talents program with AIThere is a key area where an American error may well be a windfall for India. This is based on the currently fashionable H1-B bashing which is really a race-bashing of Indians, and which has been taken up with gusto by certain MAGA folks. Once again, I suspect the baleful influence of Whitehall behind it, but whatever the reason, it looks like Indians are going to have a hard time settling down in the US.There are over a million Indians on H1-Bs, a large number of them software engineers, let us assume for convenience there are 250,000 of them. Given country caps of exactly 9800 a year, they have no realistic chance of getting a Green Card in the near future, and given the increasingly fraught nature of life there for brown people, they may leave the US, and possibly return to India..I call this the Idi Amin syndrome. In 1972, the dictator of Uganda went on a rampage against Indian-origin people in his country, and forcibly expelled 80,000 of them, because they were dominating the economy. There were unintended consequences: those who were ejected mostly went to the US and UK, and they have in many cases done well. But Uganda's economy virtually collapsed.That's a salutary experience. I am by no means saying that the US economy would collapse, but am pointing to the resilience of the Indians who were expelled. If, similarly, Trump forces a large number of Indians to return to India, that might well be a case of short-term pain and long-term gain: urvashi-shapam upakaram, as in the Malayalam phrase.Their return would be akin to what happened in China and Taiwan with their successful effort to attract their diaspora back. The Chinese program was called 1000 Talents, and they scoured the globe for academics and researchers of Chinese origin, and brought them back with attractive incentives and large budgets. They had a major role in energizing the Chinese economy.Similarly, Taiwan with Hsinchu University attracted high-quality talent, among which was the founder of TSMC, the globally dominant chip giant.And here is Trump offering to India on a platter at least 100,000 software engineers, especially at a time when generativeAI is decimating low-end jobs everywhere. They can work on some very compelling projects that could revolutionize Indian education, up-skilling and so on, and I am not at liberty to discuss them. Suffice to say that these could turbo-charge the Indian software industry and get it away from mundane, routine body-shopping type jobs.ConclusionThe Trump tariff tantrum is definitely a short-term problem for India, but it can be turned around, and turned into an opportunity, if only the country plays its cards right and focuses on building long-term comparative advantages and accepting the gift of a mis-step by Trump in geo-economics.In geo-politics, India and the US need each other to contain China, and so that part, being so obvious, will be taken care of more or less by default.Thus, overall, the old SWOT analysis: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. On balance, I am of the opinion that the threats contain in them the germs of opportunities. It is up to Indians to figure out how to take advantage of them. This is your game to win or lose, India!4150 words, 9 Aug 2025 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

Israel's bloodbath in Gaza continues amid raids in occupied West Bank "Israel has killed over 50 Palestinians across besieged Gaza on Tuesday. The attacks took place in Rafah, Gaza City, Jabalia and Khan Younis. In occupied West Bank Israeli forces abducted at least 35 Palestinians, including children and former prisoners, in a series of overnight raids. The arrests took place in the cities of Nablus, Salfit, Qalqilya, Jenin, Tulkarem, Alkhalil, and Bethlehem, according to a joint statement from the Commission of Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoner Society," "UN Rapporteur urges global action against Israel to stop Gaza genocide " "The United Nations' special rapporteur for besieged Gaza and the occupied West Bank has said that it's time for nations around the world to take concrete actions to stop the ""genocide"" in the blockaded enclave. Francesca Albanese spoke to delegates from 30 countries meeting in Colombia to discuss the Israeli genocide in Gaza and ways that nations can try to stop Israel's carnage. Albanese said the Israeli economy is structured to sustain the occupation that has now turned genocidal." "US court blocks move to end protected status for Afghans " "A US federal appeals court has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from ending temporary protected status (TPS) for thousands of Afghan nationals living in the country. The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an emergency stay on the termination order on Monday, which was set to take effect July 15. More than 82,000 Afghans were evacuated to the US following the Taliban's takeover in 2021 after the US' chaotic withdrawal. " US launches probe into Brazil's trade practices "The United States has launched an investigation into Brazil's trade practices, escalating tensions between the two countries and potentially laying the groundwork for punitive tariffs on South America's largest economy. The probe, announced by the Office of the US Trade Representative will assess whether Brazil's policies are ""unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict US commerce.""" July 15 defeated coup attempt a ‘critical turning point' in Türkiye's history: Erdogan " Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the defeated July 15 coup attempt in 2016 marked one of the most critical turning points in Türkiye's history, Speaking at the commemoration ceremony for July 15 Democracy and National Unity Day at parliament in Ankara Erdogan said the coup attempt was a tough test that the state and the nation overcame with pride. Erdogan expressed gratitude to the martyrs who sacrificed their lives, the veterans who defended the nation, the citizens who filled the streets to resist the coup attempt, and the millions abroad who supported Türkiye during that critical night."

Robert Lighthizer, the former US Trade Representative during Trump's first term, declined to return for a second term? But why?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-art-of-trumps-trade-deal

Ambassador Ron Kirk, former Mayor of Dallas and US Trade Representative

For decades, semiconductor fabs tolerated—and even expected—bad yields. Less than 50%, sometimes as low as 10%. Credible die yield data is rare, but here's a market analysis from the late 1980s for the US Trade Representative during the US-Japan semiconductor dispute. It implies that when American and Japanese firms began 16K DRAM in 1978, yields were about 2%. Laughably low, but expected. And they stayed low. By 1984, US 16K DRAM yield hit 36%. Japan: 48%—better, still bad. Six years later! Now look at TSMC's N5/N4 node, about 4–5 years old. Trade secrets, but N4 yields are around 80%. What's going on? 6-micron process vs. 4-nanometer. The latter is far harder. Yet we're hitting 80–90% yields. Is it a conspiracy? No—the fabs opened their third eyes. With new tools, they began inspecting and improving. In this video: how automated inspection tools revolutionized chip fabrication.

For decades, semiconductor fabs tolerated—and even expected—bad yields. Less than 50%, sometimes as low as 10%. Credible die yield data is rare, but here's a market analysis from the late 1980s for the US Trade Representative during the US-Japan semiconductor dispute. It implies that when American and Japanese firms began 16K DRAM in 1978, yields were about 2%. Laughably low, but expected. And they stayed low. By 1984, US 16K DRAM yield hit 36%. Japan: 48%—better, still bad. Six years later! Now look at TSMC's N5/N4 node, about 4–5 years old. Trade secrets, but N4 yields are around 80%. What's going on? 6-micron process vs. 4-nanometer. The latter is far harder. Yet we're hitting 80–90% yields. Is it a conspiracy? No—the fabs opened their third eyes. With new tools, they began inspecting and improving. In this video: how automated inspection tools revolutionized chip fabrication.

The Ag Net News Hour discussed updates on the U.S. Trade Representative's (USTR) port fee proposal for Chinese ships. Initially, the USTR proposed a $1.5 million flat fee per port call, but revised it to a per-ton basis. Fees will start at $50 per ton, increasing incrementally to $140 per ton over time. China controls nearly 20% of global shipping containers. The USTR aims to restore American shipbuilding and address China's dominance in maritime logistics. Exemptions for agricultural industries have not been granted. The discussion also touched on restrictions on U.S. liquefied natural gas transport to incentivize domestic shipbuilding.   The discussion on Ag Net News with Lorrie Boyer and Nick Papagni, “The Ag Meter,” focused on recent trade developments, including the US Trade Representative's proposal to change port fees to tonnage fees and the impact on Chinese shipping. Japan and Vietnam's trade negotiations with the US were mentioned, with Vietnam aiming to curb Chinese trade. The segment also included an excerpt from a recent Senate Hearing on tariffs and the ag industry. The conversation highlighted the need for an even playing field with China and the potential benefits of a trade deal.  The segment concluded with details about an upcoming citrus expo in Tampa, Florida.     The third Ag Net News Hour segment began with Nick “The Ag Meter” and Lorrie discussing the recent passing of Pope Francis, noting his significance around Easter and the upcoming selection of a new Pope. They also covered the ongoing process of cabinet appointments in the Trump administration, highlighting Brooke Rollins' role and her dedication to Trump's agenda. The conversation shifted to economic topics, including President Trump's consideration of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates, and the potential legal implications. They concluded with light-hearted agriculture facts, such as the misconception that brown cows produce chocolate milk and the longest recorded flight by a chicken, which was 301.5 feet.

In this week's round-up of the latest news in online speech, content moderation and internet regulation, Mike and Ben cover:Zuckerberg Tries to Enlist Trump in Fight Against Meta EU Ruling (WSJ)EU set to limit Apple and Meta fines to avoid ire of Donald Trump (Financial Times)Adolescence hard to watch as a dad, Starmer tells creators (BBC)‘Adolescence' on Netflix: A painful wake-up call about unregulated internet use for teens (The Conversation)Adolescence hits Netflix's Top 10 Global chart in just three weeks as it reaches over 96MILLION views (Daily Mail)Online ‘Pedophile Hunters' Are Growing More Violent — and Going Viral (NY Times)ESPN's Pat McAfee and others amplified a false rumor. A teenager's life was ‘destroyed' (NY Times)Myanmar's Internet Censorship Limits Information About Quake (NY Times)This episode is brought to you with financial support from the Future of Online Trust & Safety Fund, and by our sponsor Internet Society, a global nonprofit that advocates for an open, globally connected, secure and trustworthy Internet for everyone. In our Bonus Chat, Internet Society's Natalie Campbell talks about issues around US leadership on digital trade and an open internet, related to a letter the Internet Society sent this week to the US Trade Representative. Ctrl-Alt-Speech is a weekly podcast from Techdirt and Everything in Moderation. Send us your feedback at podcast@ctrlaltspeech.com and sponsorship enquiries to sponsorship@ctrlaltspeech.com. Thanks for listening.

US President Donald Trump promises a significant tariff announcement on April 2. We gathered a team of experts to discuss how the looming threats of tariffs from the Trump administration may affect Brazil and reshape relations between the United States and Brazil — not just in the short-term future but also in the long run. Panelists:Tony Harrington, former US ambassador to Brazil. Founding Principal of Albright Stonebridge. He was previously Chair of the President's Intelligence Oversight Board and currently serves as Chair of the Wilson Center Brazil Institute. Kellie Meiman Hock, senior counselor at McLarty Associates and a board member of the Inter-American Dialogue. A former US Foreign Service Officer, she served in Porto Alegre, São Paulo and Recife in Brazil, as well as at the Office of the US Trade Representative in the Executive Office of the President as Director for Brazil and the Southern Cone.Welber Barral, founding partner of BMJ, is an expert in international trade and investment with over 30 years of experience. He served as Brazil's Secretary of Foreign Trade between 2007 and 2011 and has acted as an arbitrator in Mercosur and WTO disputes. He currently advises Fiesp and presides over IBCI, the Brazilian Institute of Foreign Trade.This episode is exclusive for premium subscribers and subscribers of Explaining Brazil Plus on Apple Podcasts.Support the show

CNN has learned Tesla, the company owned by Elon Musk, said this week that retaliatory tariffs against US manufacturers could harm its operations and that the US should carefully consider its trade policies. The March 11 letter to the US Trade Representative is a break from Musk's ally President Trump. The letter is unsigned. Plus, how some regulations at the EPA designed to help poor and minority communities fight pollution are being gutted in the name of Trump's anti-DEI policies. Anderson speaks with Christine Todd Whitman, the former EPA Administrator during George W. Bush's first term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Another Senate confirmation hearing for one of Donald Trump's top team, this time its Jamieson Greer, the nominee for US Trade Representative. So all the talk was of tariffs. China has filed a World Trade Organisation (WTO) complaint against the US president's 10% tariffs on Chinese goods after a trade war between two global powers began this week. What does Pascal Lamy, former director general of WTO, have to say? We hear from Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest container port in North America.And egg prices are soaring in the States. But why? That's what we asked a poultry farmer from South Carolina.Global business news, with live guests and contributions from Asia and the USA.

In this episode of Passing Judgment, we delve into the legal complexities of President-Elect Trump's proposed tariffs. Jessica Levinson explores how power over foreign commerce has shifted from Congress to the President, highlighting key laws like the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934 and the Trade Act of 1974. The episode also covers President Biden's controversial pardon of his son, Hunter Biden, examining the constitutional power of presidential pardons, historical precedents, and political implications. Here are three key takeaways you don't want to miss:1️⃣ Congressional Abdication of Trade Powers: Jessica Levinson points out that Congress has gradually ceded its constitutional authority to regulate foreign commerce to the executive branch over the past century. 2️⃣ Legal Hurdles for Trump's Proposed Tariffs: Despite President-elect Trump's promises to impose sweeping tariffs on countries like Mexico, Canada, and China, there are significant legal and procedural hurdles to clear. These include mandatory investigations by the Department of Commerce, and potential court challenges under doctrines like the major questions doctrine and nondelegation doctrine.3️⃣ Presidential Pardons and Political Implications: The episode delves into President Biden's pardon of his son, Hunter Biden, explaining the broad and exclusive presidential power to grant pardons for federal crimes. Resources Mentioned:Jessica's MSNBC articleFollow Our Host: @LevinsonJessica

On this episode of Agriculture Today, we will learn about President-elect Trump's pick for US Trade Representative, farm bill updates in the lame duck session, crop insurance options in 2025, a Minnesota turkey grower is experiencing a Thanksgiving of a lifetime, and a poultry group encouraging consumers to stock up on turkey before the avian influenza outbreak impacts the supply chain.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here's a summary of the latest developments affecting agriculture and commodities markets:

Global trade tensions are heating up, as China announces new tariffs on imports of European brandy. The move follows the EU decision to raise tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, following similar moves by the US and Canada. Greta Peisch, a partner at Wiley Rein LLP and former General Counsel for the US Trade Representative, explains why French cognac producers are set to bear the brunt of the latest tariffs, and what's next for US-China trade relations. 

Our US public policy and global economics experts discuss how an escalation of US tariffs could have major domestic and international economic implications.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's US Public Policy Strategist. Arunima Sinha: And I'm Arunima Sinha, from the Global Economics team. Ariana Salvatore: Today we're talking tariffs, a major policy issue at stake in the US presidential election. We'll dig into the domestic and international implications of these proposed policies. It's Tuesday, October 1st at 10am in New York. In a little over four weeks, Americans will be going to the polls. And as we've noted on this podcast, it's still a close race between the two presidential candidates. Former president Donald Trump's main pitch to voters has to do with the economy. And tariffs and tax cuts are central to many of his campaign speeches. Arunima Sinha: You're right, Ariana. In fact, I would say that tariffs have been the key theme he keeps on coming back to. You've recently written a note about why we should take the Republicans proposed policies on tariffs seriously. What's your broad outlook in a Trump win scenario? Ariana Salvatore: Well, first and foremost, I think it's important to note that the President has quite a bit of discretion when it comes to trade policy. That's why we recommend that investors should take seriously a number of these proposals. Many of the authorities are already in place and could be easily leveraged if Trump were to win in November and follow through on those campaign promises. He did it with China in 2018 to 2019, leveraging Section 301 Authority, and many of that could be done easily if he were to win again.Arunima Sinha: And could you just walk us through some of the specifics of Trump's tariff proposals? What are the options at the President's disposal? Ariana Salvatore: Sure. So, he's floated a number of tariff proposals -- whether it be 10 per cent tariffs across the board on all of our imports, 60 per cent specifically on China or targeted tariffs on certain goods coming from partners like Mexico, for example. Targeted tariffs are likely the easiest place to start, especially if we see an incrementalist approach like we saw during the first Trump term over the course of 2018 to 2019. Arunima Sinha: And how quickly would these tariffs be implemented if Trump were to win? Ariana Salvatore: The answer to that really depends on the type of authorities being leveraged here. There are a few different procedures associated with each of the tariffs that I mentioned just now. For example, if the president is using Section 301 authorities, that usually requires a period of investigation by the USTR -- or the US Trade Representative --before the formal recommendation for tariffs.However, given that many of these authorities are already in place, to the extent that the former president wants to levy tariffs on China, for example, it can be done pretty seamlessly. Conversely, if you were to ask his cabinet to initiate a new tariff investigation, depending on the authority used, that could take anywhere from weeks to months. Section 232 investigations have a maximum timeline of 270 days. There's also a chance that he uses something called IEEPA, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, to justify quicker tariff imposition, though the legality of that authority hasn't been fully tested yet. Back in 2019, when Trump said he would use IEEPA to impose 5 per cent tariffs on all Mexican imports, he called off those plans before the tariffs actually came into effect. Arunima Sinha: And could you give us a little more specific[s] about which countries would be impacted in this potential next round of tariffs -- and to what extent? Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, in our analysis, which you'll get into in a moment, we focus on the potential for a 10 per cent across the board tariff that I mentioned, in conjunction with the 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods. Obviously, when you map that to who our largest trading partners are, it's clear that Mexico and China would be impacted most directly, followed by Canada and the EU.Specifically on the EU, we have those section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs coming up for review in early 2025, and the US-MCA or the agreement that replaced NAFTA is set for review later in 2026. So, we see plenty of trade catalysts on the horizon. We also see an underappreciated risk of tariffs on Mexico using precedent from Trump's first term, especially if immigration continues to be such a politically salient issue for voters. Given all of this, it seems that tariffs will create a lot of friction in global trade. What's your outlook, Arunima? Arunima Sinha: Well, Arianna, we do expect a hit to growth, and a near term rise in inflation in the US. In the EU, our economists also expect a negative impact on growth. And in other economies, there are several considerations. How would tariffs impact the ongoing supply chain diversification? The extent of foreign exchange moves? Are bilateral negotiations being pursued by the other countries? And so on.Ariana Salvatore: So, a natural follow up question here is not only the impact to the countries that would be affected by US tariffs, but how they might respond. What do you see happening there? Arunima Sinha: In the note, we talked with our China economists, and they expect that if the US were to impose 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing may impose retaliatory tariffs and some non-tariff measures like it did back in 2018-19. But they don't expect meaningful sanctions or restrictions on US enterprises that are already well embedded in China's supply chain. On the policy side, Beijing would likely resort less to Chinese currency depreciation but focus more on supply chain diversifications to mitigate the tariff shock this time round. Our economists think that the risk of more entrenched deflationary pressures from potential tariff disruptions may increase the urgency for Beijing to shift its policy framework towards economic rebalancing to consumption.In Europe, our economists expect that targeted tariffs will be met with challenges at the WTO and retaliatory tariffs on American exports to Europe, following the pattern from 2018-19, along with bilateral trade negotiations. In Mexico, our economists think that there could be a response with tariffs on agricultural products, mainly corn and soybeans.Ariana Salvatore: So, bringing it back to the US, what do you see the macro impact from tariffs being in terms of economic growth or inflation? Arunima Sinha: We did a fairly extensive analysis where we both looked at the aggregate impacts on the US as well as sectoral impacts that we'll get into. We think that a pretty reasonable estimate of the effect of both a 60 per cent tariff on China and a 10 per cent blanket tariff on the rest of the world is an increase of 0.9 per cent in the headline PCE prices that takes into effect over 2025, and a decline of 1.4 percentage points in real GDP growth that plays out over a longer period going into 2026. Ariana Salvatore: So, your team is expecting two more Fed cuts this year and four by the first half of 2025. Thinking about how tariffs might play into that dynamic, do you see them influencing Fed policy at all? Arunima Sinha: Well, under the tariff scenario, we think that it's possible that the Fed decides to delay cuts first and then speed up the pace of easing. So, in theory, the effect of a tariff shock is really just a level shift in prices. And in other words, it's a transitory boost to inflation that should fade over time.Because it's a temporary shock. The Fed can, in principle look through it as long as inflation expectations remain anchored. And this is what we saw in the FOMC minutes from the 2018 meetings. In a scenario of increased tariffs, we think that the uncertainty about the length of the inflationary push may slow down the pace of cuts in the first half of 2025. And then once GDP deceleration becomes more pronounced, the Fed might then cut faster in the second half of [20]25 to avoid that big, outsized deceleration and economic activity.Ariana Salvatore: And what about second order effects on things like business investment or employment? We talked about agriculture as a potential target for retaliatory tariffs, but what other US sectors and industries would be most affected by these type of plans? Arunima Sinha: That's something that we have leaned in on, and we do expect some important second round effects. So, if you have lower economic activity, that would lower employment, that lowers income, that lowers consumption further -- so that standard multiplier effect. So overall, in that scenario, with the 60 per cent tariffs on China, 10 per cent on the rest of the world that are imposed fully and swiftly, we model that real consumption would decline by 3 per cent, business investment would fall by 3.1 per cent, and monthly job gains would fall by between 50- and 70, 000. At the sectoral level, this combination of tariffs have potential to increase average tariffs to the 25 to 35 per cent range for almost 50 per cent of the NAICS industries in the United States when first put into place. And we expect the biggest impacts on computers and electronics, apparel, and the furniture sectors; but this does not take into account any potential exclusion lists that might be put into place. Ariana Salvatore: Finally, what does all this boil down to in terms of a direct impact to the US consumer wallet? Arunima Sinha: So, the impact of higher tariffs on consumer spending would depend on many factors, and one of the most important ones is the price elasticity of demand. So how willing would consumers be to take on those higher prices from tariffs, or do we see a pullback in real demand? What we think will happen is that higher prices could reduce real consumption by as much as 2. 5 per cent. The impact on goods consumption is much more meaningful because imported goods are directly affected by tariffs, and we would expect to see a drag on real goods consumption of 5 per cent. But then you have lower labor income and higher production costs and services prices that is also going to bring down services consumption by 1.3 per cent.Ariana Salvatore: So, it's important to keep in mind here that US tariff policy would undoubtedly have far reaching consequences. That means it's something that we're going to continue to follow very closely. Arunima, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Great speaking with you, Ariana. Thank you, Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

An attempted assassination, a new Democratic candidate and a controversial choice of running mate are just some of the reasons this US election is shaping up to be one of the most tumultuous in recent memory. Sarah Bianchi, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI and former deputy US Trade Representative helps Moz understand the various moving parts in this dynamic election.  Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guest:Sarah Bianchi, Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI and former deputy US Trade Representative  https://bit.ly/4dppnoeEFGAM:https://www.newcapital.com/Important disclaimersThe value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and past performance is no indicator of future performance. 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The Office of the US Trade Representative released its second biennial report on the automotive provisions of the USMCA. For more information on this topic, listen to today's Two Minutes in Trade.  

In the latest installment of Five Questions, Five Answers, host Birgit Matthiesen is joined by International Trade & Investment Partner Leah Scarpelli to discuss the recent developments in US-China tariffs, specifically the Section 301 tariffs. Birgit and Leah delve into the potential implications of a 100% tariff on electric vehicles (EVs) from China, the May 14 conclusion of the Biden Administration's review of these longstanding tariffs, the Office of the US Trade Representative's (USTR) proposal that the tariffs will continue but most product exclusions will not, and the White House's call for public comment on these proposals. Highlights of the conversation include: • An in-depth analysis of the USTR's four-year review and its proposed changes. • The continuation and potential expansion of existing tariffs in certain sectors. • The introduction of a limited exclusion process for requesting exclusions from the tariffs. • The importance for importers to understand their supply chain and confirm the country of origin for shipments. • The encouragement for companies to submit public comments on the proposed modifications to the tariffs.

Jamieson Greer, partner at King & Spalding and former chief of staff to the Office of the US Trade Representative, joins Double Take to discuss the full extent of presidential power in trade policy, the potential for a universal baseline tariff and more. 

In the latest installment of Five Questions, Five Answers, Birgit Matthiesen is joined by Leah Scarpelli, a Partner with the firm's International Trade & Investment Practice. In this end-of-year discussion, Birgit and Leah provide listeners with the latest news from Washington on US “special” 301 tariffs – where things stood at the end of 2023 and what to expect in 2024. Highlights of the conversation include: - The significance of US trade tensions with China and US 301 tariffs. - Recent announcements from the US Trade Representative's (USTR) Office inviting comments on the continuation of these tariffs and comments in regard to current product exclusions. - The uncertainties surrounding tariff extensions and potential retaliation from China.

In this episode of Navigating Uncertainty, Dr. Mansharamani speaks with Rob Portman, a dedicated public servant who has served America for more than three decades as a Senator, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, US Trade Representative, and Congressman. Senator Portman shares the story of working at a family business while growing up and how his love of the outdoors led him to Dartmouth (and kayaking down the Yangtze River!). He also shares his optimism (despite—or perhaps because of?—his time in Washington) that government can actually work for Americans if we restore our focus on finding common ground. The episode concludes with Senator Portman offering fabulous advice on how to navigate uncertainty: Find your North Star and don't let the cross-currents of uncertainty prevent you from making progress.mansharamani.substack.com

Get set for an intriguing journey as we launch our thought-provoking series on Forced Labor - set to captivate your Tuesdays for the following weeks! Each episode offers candid conversations with industry experts who bring to life different facets of the fight against Forced Labor. From unraveling complex issues to revealing key strategies, we've got it all covered! Join us on this enlightening journey and equip yourself with valuable insights to be compliant and meet Forced Labor trade regulations confidently. Let's conquer compliance together! Episode 1 Are you concerned about the implications of forced labor regulations and how they affect your business? The latest episode of the Simply Trade podcast sheds light on this critical topic, with insights straight from the government! Simply Trade, hosted by Andy and Lalo, welcomes a special guest - Brian Hoxie, the Director of Forced Labor Division at the CBP's Office of Trade. Main Points Brian Hoxie discusses the two paths CBP follows to enforce Section 1307 of the Trade Act 1930. Investigations to identify entities involved in forced labor overseas and issuing withhold release orders. Implementation and enforcement of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which prohibits the entry of goods made wholly or in part from the Xinjiang region of China. CBP's efforts include setting up a task force, collaborating with various stakeholders in trade and academia, and creating port policies and procedures. To help businesses comply with these laws, CBP provides guidance through their public website, operational guidance, importer guidance, and FAQs. Since the start of the implementation, CBP has had around 450 engagements with stakeholders. CBP works closely with other government agencies, including the Department of State, US Trade Representative, and DHS to ensure a whole-of-government approach. Importers are encouraged to report any suspicions about forced labor in their supply chain to CBP to help build strong cases and act accordingly. CBP appreciates companies taking proactive steps to avoid forced labor issues. The Simply Trade podcast episode offers valuable insights and information directly from Brian Hoxie, who works at the forefront of forced labor enforcement. Importers and compliance professionals can gain the knowledge they need to navigate these complex regulations, protect their businesses, and work towards a better future. Don't miss out on the in-depth conversation. Enjoy the show! Host: Andy Shiles: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyshiles/  Host/Producer: Lalo Solorzano: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lalosolorzano/  Co-Producer: Mara Marquez: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mara-marquez-a00a111a8/ Show references: Global Training Center - www.GlobalTrainingCenter.com Simply Trade Podcast - twitter.com/SimplyTradePod  Contact SimplyTrade@GlobalTrainingCenter.com or message @SimplyTradePod for: Advertising and sponsoring on Simply Trade Requests to be on the show as guest Suggest any topics you would like to hear about Simply Trade is not a law firm or an advisor. The topics and discussions conducted by Simply Trade hosts and guests should not be considered and is not intended to substitute legal advice. You should seek appropriate counsel for your own situation. These conversations and information are directed towards listeners in the United States for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and should not be In substitute for legal advice. No listener or viewer of this podcast should act or refrain from acting on the basis of information on this podcast without first seeking legal advice from counsel. Information on this podcast may not be up to date depending on the time of publishing and the time of viewership. The content of this posting is provided as is, no representations are made that the content is error free. The views expressed in or through this podcast are those are the individual speakers not those of their respective employers or Global Training Center as a whole. All liability with respect to actions taken or not taken based on the contents of this podcast are hereby expressly disclaimed.

Hosts, Annik, Andy, and Lalo, take a look into international trade, discussing the ongoing tension with China, India's new license mandate, and a recent USCMA grievance new to the industry. Key Points Discussed American chip manufacturers like Micron and Intel experiencing difficulties with their operations in China due to China's ban on purchasing their products, seen as a retaliation against the US's prohibition on importing complex chips with AI. The US Trade Representative is advocating for better trade relations with China by opening up dialogues and biannual meetings starting from 2024, aiming to mitigate some ongoing trade disputes. Recent concerns flagged by the US Trade Chief regarding India's licensing mandate for the import of laptops and tablets, impacting global tech firms, particularly Apple and Dell. Hosts discuss the Mexican cargo airline accused of labor violations under USMCA. The airline allegedly didn't allow pilots to unionize or organize, which prompted the US to raise the issue to address labor disputes. They also discuss the number of free trade agreements, mentioning that the United States is a party to 14 comprehensive free trade agreements with 20 countries. This episode shines a light on the ever-changing landscape of international trade policies and issues, highlighting the intricacies of dealing with dominant trading countries like China and India, labor issues under trade agreements like USMCA, and the ongoing discussions around global trade agreements. It emphasizes the importance of staying informed and engaged in shaping global trade. Enjoy the show. Host: Annik Sobing: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annik-sobing-mba-b226251a2/  Host: Andy Shiles: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyshiles/  Host/Producer: Lalo Solorzano: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lalosolorzano/  Co-Producer: Mara Marquez: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mara-marquez-a00a111a8/ Contact SimplyTrade@GlobalTrainingCenter.com or message @SimplyTradePod for: Advertising and sponsoring on Simply Trade Requests to be on the show as guest Suggest any topics you would like to hear about Simply Trade is not a law firm or an advisor. The topics and discussions conducted by Simply Trade hosts and guests should not be considered and is not intended to substitute legal advice. You should seek appropriate counsel for your own situation. These conversations and information are directed towards listeners in the United States for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and should not be In substitute for legal advice. No listener or viewer of this podcast should act or refrain from acting on the basis of information on this podcast without first seeking legal advice from counsel. Information on this podcast may not be up to date depending on the time of publishing and the time of viewership. The content of this posting is provided as is, no representations are made that the content is error free. The views expressed in or through this podcast are those are the individual speakers not those of their respective employers or Global Training Center as a whole. All liability with respect to actions taken or not taken based on the contents of this podcast are hereby expressly disclaimed.

For regular listeners, you know I like to take on complicated subjects, and try to make clear what's at stake for all of us.   In this episode the Bill Walton Show we take a another deep dive into one of the most complicated and contentious areas of economic policy:  International trade.  International trade negotiations are incredibly complex multilevel games—there are negotiations not just with America's trading partners, but with Congress, domestic constituencies, and rival factions within the executive branch.  There are sharp - almost theological - differences in how trade policy ought to work. I was taught that protectionism was terrible and that free trade was the highest good, but then found few examples of countries that actually practice it. It's now clear that we cannot simply trust the principles of "free trade" to solve our problems -- that every trade policy represents a balancing of interests. The stakes have never been higher. Today we find ourselves in a position where our most important trading partner - China - has essentially revealed itself to be our mortal enemy. Trade is no longer a boring topic. To break all this down I'm delighted to be joined in this episode by Robert Lighthizer, our US Trade Representative in the Trump Administration.  For more than 40 years, Bob Lighthizer has litigated, negotiated, and editorialized against the policies of one-sided “free trade” first in the Reagan Administration as Deputy Trade Rep and as a private lawyer.  As President Trump's U.S. Trade Representative, he fought against globalists, importers, lobbyists, foreign governments and big businesses whose interests diverged from those of the American workers and American security.  Now Bob's published a illuminating book “No Trade is Free” that for anyone interested in understanding the realities of international economic policymaking, this is the book.  Part memoir, part history, and part policy analysis, Bob lays out in detail what he sees as the objectives of a practical approach to trade policy. Bob's views on this subject have been remarkably consistent since the late 1990s when he editorialized against granting China admission to the WTO. At that time, he was a lonely voice in the wilderness.  Now his views are mainstream. We cover a lot a ground in this episode, from the role trade disputes played in the American Revolution, the American System of tariffs used to build up American industry to the pivotal entry of China into the World Trade Organization. Since then China has become trade issue Number One.  After China's entry “it created an ecosystem and learned about the subsidies and started doing all the other things that made it go from being an enormous problem to being a cataclysmic one,” explains Bob. “There is no private sector in China.” “Outsiders make money in China only as long as the Communist Party of China allows you to make it. And when you're not benefiting them, you're out. And we have all these clever American businessmen who think, "Oh, I'm making money in China." They don't realize they're simply being allowed.”  “China's purpose is for you to transfer know how, transfer technology, and help their ecosystem to get more business. And then you'll see after a period of time, you won't be useful anymore. And then, at that point, you'll find yourself with a Chinese competitor who's not only taken over your entire market in China but is now threatening your market in the United States.” “So the number one thing has to be decoupling with China without question. And there's a number of specific steps, many of which I have outlined in the chapter on the China prescription. We have to right this ship. There's a lot that needs to be done.”

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai played host to the APEC Forum in Detroit, where she balanced American interests, international trade agreements and ongoing rivalries with China. Ambassador Tai joined Ray Suarez to speak about how that meeting went, and what it really means to put workers at the center of US trade policy.    Guest:   Ambassador Katherine Tai, US Trade Representative   Host:     Ray Suarez   If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Globalization was once the watchword of Washington. Bill Clinton made it a centerpiece of his economic policy, from the North American Free Trade Agreement to ushering China into the World Trade Organization. But two decades later, America has become increasingly protectionist, pushing strategic industrial policies and trade barriers. Just the other day, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan turned heads when he said "the postulate that deep trade liberalization would help America export goods, not jobs and capacity, was a promise made and not kept." Indeed, the Biden Administration has been touting a new kind of trade policy, one known as "friend-shoring." It encourages friendly nations and their companies to shift manufacturing away from geopolitical rivals like China and toward allies.  On this episode, Stephanie speaks with Mike Froman, who served as the US Trade Representative under President Barack Obama, about how trade policy has evolved since his administration and where it's heading. We also sit down with Senior Editor Brendan Murray, who takes us to Morocco, a country where globalization still holds sway. There, companies from China and Russia are manufacturing auto parts and sending them around the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In mid-May, the US Trade Representative established a trade initiative with Taiwan. While this isn't a full-blown trade deal, it represents the shift in US policy towards recognizing Taiwan as an independent country. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/taiwan-and-the-us-reach-a-trade-deal