Mark Penn Polls

Join Mark Penn for an in-depth analysis of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll results that reveal a dramatic shift in the political landscape. As President Biden prepares to leave office with his lowest approval rating since 2022, President-Elect Trump enters with majority support. We'll break down the numbers behind voter priorities on inflation and immigration, analyze public sentiment toward Trump's cabinet picks and policy proposals, and explore voter attitudes on everything from social media regulation to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Don't miss this comprehensive look at where America stands at this historic transition of power. Interested in Learning More?Harvard Harris PollListen to More EpisodesTwitter

The poll shows that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media, and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but want him to prioritize tackling inflation.“This was an election about issues, and the economy and immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message of middle- and working-class economics,” saidMark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But while he's won over people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is still a division of the election that has not yet resolved itself.”Read the Full Results Interested in Learning More?Harvard Harris PollListen to More EpisodesTwitter

The poll was conducted October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed.The new poll found that the presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs.Other key findings include:HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES  81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don't Know/Unsure: 9%).50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).  14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELYTrump's perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women's sports.63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).  Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.  CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS  85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris' 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).  Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA's response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.  67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.  APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MINDBiden's approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2).51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a Harris administration.Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).  61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL'S STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE REGION52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are unsure.73% of voters say Iran is a regional sponsor of terror in the Middle East and blame Iran over Israel for escalating conflict, but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say Iran is not a regional sponsor of terror.63% of voters believe Israel is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack (18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about saving lives in Gaza rather than supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah should not be given airtime on national TV.Download the full results here. Interested in Learning More?Harvard Harris PollListen to More EpisodesTwitter

The poll was conducted September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.The new poll found that the presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris' favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating. Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy.Other key findings include:CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECKThe presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris.Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUESMajor differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATIONBiden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.Less than half of voters approve of Biden's performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%). 57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue. Interested in Learning More?Harvard Harris PollListen to More EpisodesTwitter

In this episode of the Harvard Harris Poll Debrief, Bob Cusack and Mark Penn discuss the latest political developments and polling data. The discussion centers around a dramatic shift in the Democratic presidential race, with Joe Biden stepping aside and Kamala Harris becoming the new presumptive nominee.TakeawaysThe Democratic Party has experienced a renewal with the selection of Kamala Harris as the candidate.Harris has seen a significant improvement in her popularity and has the potential to win the election.Policy and performance will be key factors in the election, with Trump having an advantage on the economy.Attacks on Harris may focus on her progressive policies and lack of foreign policy experience.The selection of Harris' running mate is not expected to have a significant impact on the election.The electorate remains stable, with strong support for Israel and dissatisfaction with the economy.Chapters(00:00) The Renewal of the Democratic Party(01:07) The Popularity and Potential of Kamala Harris(02:22) Paths to Victory for Harris(05:06) The Importance of Policy and Performance(06:25) Likability and Potential Attacks on Harris(08:24) The Selection of Harris' Running Mate11:00The Stability of the Electorate Interested in Learning More?Harvard Harris PollListen to More EpisodesTwitter

The poll was conducted June 28-30, 2024, among 2,090 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. President Joe Biden's overall approval rating dropped to 40%, his lowest since July 2022, while inflation and immigration remained voters' top two concerns.DEBATE HURTS BIDEN, HELPS TRUMP74% of voters think Biden is too old to be President, an 11-point increase after the debate.66% of voters have doubts about Biden's mental fitness for office, a 12-point increase after the debate.Voters are on net 7 points more likely to vote for Trump after the debate and 20 points less likely to vote for Biden.ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN62% of voters characterize their personal economics as fair or poor, up 7 points from May.52% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among Republican (69%) and rural (63%) voters.Biden's approval on handling inflation dropped to 34%, his lowest in two years.TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD HORSE RACETrump leads Biden by 4 points in the horserace, down 2 points from last month.41% of voters (a plurality) say Trump's guilty verdict in the New York hush money case has no impact on their vote, while 31% say they are more likely to vote for Trump and 27% say less likely.Marco Rubio and Tim Scott are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Trump.IMMIGRATION-CRIME NEXUS CONTINUES TO CONCERN VOTERSVoters say the top issues caused by mass immigration are an increase in violence/crime (57%), a strain on resources such as healthcare and education (57%), and a rise in homelessness (55%).56% of voters think Biden's recent asylum ban for migrants caught illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border is “too little, too late.”52% of voters support Biden's recent executive order aimed at expediting citizenship for the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens.SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL REMAINS HIGH64% of voters are paying close attention to the Israel-Hamas war, down 9 points from May, but support for Israel remains consistent at 80%.67% of voters say Israel should retaliate against Hezbollah until they stop firing rockets into the north (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 85%).Download the full results here. As always, I welcome your questions and comments. Interested in Learning More?Harvard Harris PollListen to More EpisodesTwitter

Chapters00:00 Biden's Job Approval and Economy03:19 Impact of Border and Immigration05:42 Israel-Hamas Conflict and Ratings06:39 The Challenge of Swing Voters10:29 Crucial Presidential Debates13:23 The Hush Money Trial and Trump's Campaign Interested in Learning More?Harvard Harris PollListen to More EpisodesTwitter

President Joe Biden's overall approval rating is steady at 44%, while Donald Trump leads the horse race by 4 points. Immigration and inflation remain the top two issues for voters. ELECTION FUNDAMENTALS SEE LITTLE CHANGE BUT TRUMP LEAD WIDENSImmigration and inflation continue to be voters' top concerns, tied at 35% each this month.55% of voters believe Trump has committed crimes for which he should be convicted, but 55% say separately that they approve of the job he did as president.44% job approval for Biden shows 11-point deficit in job approval compared to Trump at 55%.AMERICANS PREFER FOCUS ON DOMESTIC RATHER THAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS59% of voters say this is a time in world affairs that enables the U.S. to focus primarily on domestic issues, rather than spend more on military and foreign affairs (Democrats: 58%; Republicans: 57%; Independents: 63%).58% say the U.S. does not have the leadership necessary to handle world affairs now.56% support sending $26 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support sending $8 billion in aid to the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan; and 48% support sending $61 billion in aid to Ukraine.GENERATIONAL SCHISM ON ISRAEL REMAINS SALIENT DESPITE GENERAL SUPPORT UNCHANGED80% of voters say they support Israel over Hamas (ages 18-24 57% to 43%)71% say the crisis in Gaza has been created by Hamas, not Israel.78% say Hamas should be removed from running Gaza.72% of voters believe Israel should move forward with an operation in Rafah in order to finish the war against Hamas, while doing its best to avoid civilian casualties (ages 18-24: 57%; ages 65+: 84%).68% oppose a ceasefire unless it means Hamas would be allowed to continue holding hostages and running Gaza (ages 18-24: 66% still support). 70% support a “permanent ceasefire” but that support is contingent on hostage release and end of Hamas rule.In the context of the recent Iran attacks against Israel, 80% believe Iran must be stopped from having nuclear weapons (ages 18-24: 43%; ages 65+: 96%).MOST AMERICANS DISAPPROVE OF UNIVERSITIES AMID CAMPUS PROTESTS80% of voters believe students and professors who call for violence towards Jews should be suspended (ages 18-24: 59%; ages 65+: 92%).64% believe the leaders of private higher education institutions are not doing enough to prevent antisemitism (ages 18-24: 37%; ages 65+: 80%).64% believe there is a problem with what institutions of higher learning are teaching students today (ages 18-24: 47%; ages 65+: 74%).

The poll was conducted March 20-21, 2024, among 2,111 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.   President Joe Biden's overall approval rating remained at 45%, while 55% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's job as president. Immigration and inflation remained voters' top two concerns for the third month in a row. Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms.  Other key findings include:  VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN'S STATE OF THE UNION BUT RACE NARROWS SLIGHTLY52% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden's State of the Union address.54% of voters, including 70% of non-watchers, think Biden did not address the issues that they and their families are concerned about in the speech.53% believe Biden delivered the speech effectively.Trump is leading Biden by 2 points in the general head-to-head, down from 6 points last month. 20% of Independents say they are unsure.VOTERS ARE FINE WITH "ILLEGAL" AND "UNDOCUMENTED" TERMS AS IMMIGRATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN73% of voters believe it is appropriate to refer to those who enter the U.S. without permission as "illegal immigrants"; 68% believe it is appropriate to refer to them as "undocumented immigrants."63% of voters have heard of the story of murdered Georgia nursing student Laken Riley and 70% believe the case shows that the U.S. needs stricter immigration policies.TIKTOK BAN IS DIVIDED BY GENERATION, NOT PARTY64% of voters believe the risks posed by TikTok to Americans' personal security and the country's national security outweigh the benefits of using TikTok for American brands and content creators (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 85%).65% of voters support the bill that would ban TikTok in the U.S. if ByteDance does not sell it to a U.S. government-approved buyer (ages 18-24: 43%; ages 65+: 84%).Voters are most concerned about potential election interference from Russia (74%), China (73%), Iran (60%), Hamas (56%) and tech companies (51%).ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG WITH SCHUMER CRITICIZED FOR CALL TO REMOVE NETANYAHUIsrael continues to receive high support, 79%, against Hamas.52% of voters say it was inappropriate for Senator Chuck Schumer to call for new elections in Israel to remove Benjamin Netanyahu; but 54% believe this criticism of Israel was fair.Netanyahu has a higher net favorable rating in the U.S. (+2 points) than Schumer (-10 points).

Here are the findings of the February Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, which was released together with The Hill today. The poll was conducted February 21-22, 2024, among 2,022 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.  President Joe Biden's overall approval rating rose to 45% while his immigration approval remained at 35%, his lowest on any issue. Immigration and inflation are the top two issues for voters for the second month in a row.Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. Other key findings include: IMMIGRATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FRONT AND CENTERVoters say Biden's biggest failure was creating an open borders policy and a historic flood of immigrants. (Voters say Biden's biggest accomplishment was lowering the cost of prescription drugs.)62% of voters support impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, including 48% of Democrats.55% of voters supported Trump's calls to stop the Senate's compromise immigration bill, which would have allowed 5000 migrants to enter per day until new measures kicked in.INFLATION LOOKS STICKY TO VOTERS71% of voters think price increases and inflation have proven to be sticky and are here to stay – including 58% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.45% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse – down from 64% in summer 2022.42% say inflation is the most important issue to them personally, up 4 points from January.VOTERS ARE CONCERNED BY SPECIAL COUNSEL REPORT ON BIDEN'S AGE AND MEMORY ISSUES59% of voters say age and memory lapses are inadequate justification for Special Counsel Robert Hur not pursuing criminal charges in the classified documents case.76% of voters, including 64% of Democrats, want the transcript of Hur's interview with Biden to be released publicly.71% of voters, including 50% of Democrats, would consider it an impeachable offense if it were true that Biden worked with his son and brother to help bring in multimillion-dollar fees from China, Russia and Ukraine while he was vice president.TRUMP KEEPS LEAD DESPITE LEGAL CHALLENGESTrump beats Biden by 6 points in the head-to-head matchup.57% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president.54% think the New York judge's recent ruling that Trump defrauded state banks was fair.ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG82% of voters support Israel over Hamas (with 72% support among 18-24-year-olds, their highest percentage to date).63% of voters support Israel continuing its ground invasion into Southern Gaza to root out the final elements of Hamas.

Mark Penn and Bob Cusack breakdown the results from the January 2024 Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll. This month's word: Immigration.

Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.President Joe Biden's approval rating is 43% with slight upticks in economic sentiment. The generation gap on the Israel-Hamas war remains prevalent as 81% of all voters but only 50% of 18-24-year-olds side with Israel. The poll also covers public opinion on immigration and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here."There is bipartisan consensus among voters on many issues right now, from immigration and increased border security to support for Israel and Ukraine," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "The party that compromises effectively could win over swing voters who remain conflicted between different cross-pressures about the economy and the weaknesses of the leading candidates."AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH ISRAEL AND UKRAINE65% of voters think the U.S. should be supporting Israel in its war against Hamas; 65% separately think the U.S. should be supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.54% of voters support giving $14 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support giving an additional $50 billion in aid to Ukraine. Republicans are most likely to support the aid to Israel and Democrats most support aid to Ukraine.65% of voters, including 51% of Democrats, believe the Republicans should hold up aid to both Israel and Ukraineto get additional border security measures.VOTERS WANT MORE ACTION ON IMMIGRATIONBiden's approval rating on immigration dropped 8 points to 38% in the last month.57% of voters believe Trump had better immigration policies than Biden.Only 8% of voters knew that over 3 million people crossed the border illegally in the past year; the majority believed the number was under 500,000.VOTERS THINK THEY ARE WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN ALTHOUGH VIEWS ON ECONOMY ARE TICKING UP55% of voters say they are worse off personally during Biden's presidency and 61% say they were better off personally during Trump's presidency.44% say the economy is strong today, up 6 points in the past six months.Inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally (chosen by 40%).TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD IN HORSE RACE WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBTS ABOUT HIM AND BIDEN56% of voters believe Trump will act like a dictator if reelected, but 59% believe Democrats are trying to unfairly scare voters by labeling Trump as a dictator.72% believe a vote for Biden is really a vote for Kamala Harris because he will not likely serve a full second term.Trump leads the head-to-head matchup against Biden by 5 points and leads by 7 points when including third-party candidates.VOTERS WANT HUNTER BIDEN TO AGREE TO DEPOSITION81% of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believe Hunter Biden should appear for a deposition by Congress if asked to explain his business dealings.GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR EXTENDS TO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS AND POLICIES62% of voters feel university presidents did not go far enough to condemn antisemitism on their campuses in their Congressional testimony (ages 18-24: 67% feel the presidents did go far enough).74% believe students who call for the genocide of Jews should face actions for violating university rules (ages 18-24: 47%).76% believe Jewish students on campus are facing harassment (ages 18-24: 68%).67% of 18-24-year-olds believe Jews as a class are oppressors and should be treated as such (in contrast, 73% of all voters believe this is a false ideology).The December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on December 13-14, 2023, among 2,034 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

President Joe Biden's approval rating rises slightly to 45% with slight upticks in positive economic sentiment. Israel and Biden's policy on the war continue to receive strong support as 80% of voters side with Israel over Hamas and 58% approve of Biden's policies. The poll also covers public opinion on abortion, crime and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here."It is easy to lose sight of how much support there really is among American voters for Israel and for President Biden staying strongly pro-Israel – although misinformation on Israel and Hamas remains prevalent, especially among younger people," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Biden's Israelpolicy could help him pick up swing voters, while the Democrats continue to win elections on abortion since they come across to swing voters as the party of personal freedom on this issue."ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TICKS UP SLIGHTLY42% of voters think the U.S. economy is strong today, the highest since February 2023.30% say their personal financial situation is improving, up 6 points since July.47% are optimistic about their life in the next year, up 4 points since last month.ISRAEL CONTINUES TO RECEIVE MAJORITY SUPPORT80% of voters support Israel over Hamas (ages 18-24: 55%; ages 65+: 95%).61% of voters support Israel continuing until Hamas is defeated and the hostages are released (ages 18-24: 51%; ages 65+: 81%).78% of voters support Israel calling for 4-hour partial ceasefires each day, but 51% did not know about these ceasefires (ages 18-24: 59% support, 64% did not know).VOTERS CONTINUE TO APPROVE OF BIDEN'S ISRAEL POLICY66% of voters think Biden should support Israel rather than pull back (ages 18-24: 39%; ages 65+: 84%).65% of voters favor the $14 billion aid package to Israel (ages 18-24: 57%; ages 65+: 75%).63% of voters think Biden is doing enough to protect Palestinian civilians (ages 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 64%).MISINFORMATION ON HAMAS AND ISRAEL'S LEVELS OF FREEDOM AND TOLERANCE REMAINS SIZABLE AMONG YOUNG VOTERS81% of voters think Hamas uses civilians as human shields (ages 18-24: 68%; ages 65+: 95%).78% of voters believe Hamas is an authoritarian ruler (ages 18-24: 59%; ages 65+: 96%).69% of voters believe Israel a democracy (ages 18-24: 56%; ages 65+: 84%).51% of 18-24-year-old voters think Israel allows gay people to live together openly; 45% think Hamas allows the same.6-WEEK ABORTION BAN IS NOT POPULAR59% of voters say women should have the sole right to decide whether to have an abortion for any reason up to 6 weeks of pregnancy.When asked about the prospect of federal abortion legislation, 39% of voters think Congress should pass a law guaranteeing access similar to Roe v. Wade; 35% want Congress not to pass any law; only 27% want a Congressional law restricting abortion to 6 weeks or less.AMERICANS WANT MORE LAW ENFORCEMENT AS CRIME CONCERN STAYS HIGH63% of voters think you need to have a gun today in case you're attacked by criminals – including 54% of Democrats.83% of voters across the political spectrum think shoplifting laws should be strictly, not more laxly, enforced.TRUMP STILL LEADS PRIMARY AND GENERAL MATCHUPS DESPITE LOOMING CONVICTION THREATSTrump continues to lead the GOP primary field with 67% support and the general election match-up against Biden by 6 points.Voters are split 50-50 on whether Trump will be convicted or not; 89% of Trump primary supporters say they would vote for him even if he were convicted of a crime.But the Trump vote may be softer than people think: 63% of Trump primary supporters say they have at least some chance of ending up voting for someone else.The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 15-16, 2023, among 2,851 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

OCTOBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: STRONG MAJORITIES OF AMERICANS SUPPORT ISRAEL AGAINST HAMAS AND U.S. POLICY ON ISRAEL48% OF 18–24-YEAR-OLDS SIDE MORE WITH HAMAS; WAR VIEWS DEFINED BY GENERATIONS, NOT PARTYBIDEN APPROVAL RISES ON ISRAEL RESPONSENEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.Israel receives overwhelming support from Americans: 84% of voters support Israel over Hamas and 88% believe Israel has a right to respond militarily against Hamas. President Joe Biden edges up to 44% approval as 58% approve of the job he is doing on Israel. Republicans in Congress have hurt themselves significantly in the breakdown over the Speaker of the House as Congressional and Republican ratings sink. Download key results here.“Americans strongly support Israel against Hamas' terrorist attacks by 80 percent or more. However, there is a split not among the parties but among the generations as 95% of seniors support Israel while support drops to only 52% among the youngest voter group,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “President Biden's vocal support of Israel is winning approval from both sides, while the Republicans' chaos in the House is doing the opposite.”AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT ISRAELAND ITS RIGHT TO RESPOND TO HAMAS ATTACKS• 84% of voters side more with Israel than with Hamas (ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 95%).• 88% of voters think Israel has the responsibility to protect its citizens by retaliating against Hamas (ages 18-24: 65%; ages 65+: 97%).• 84% of voters believe Israel has the right to defend itself by launching air strikes in heavily populated Palestinian areas with warnings to those citizens (ages 18-24: 62%; ages 65+: 93%).• 70% of voters think Israel should eliminate Hamas, not end its campaign against Hamas now (ages 18-24: 48%; ages 65+: 82%).• 63% of voters believe it was right for Israel to cut off power, water and food to Gaza until its hostages are returned (ages 18-24: 41%; ages 65+: 70%).• 61% of voters say there is no moral equivalency between Hamas' murders and Israel's actions (ages 18-24: 36% – the majority believe both sides have equally just causes; ages 65+: 80%). SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF YOUNG VOTERS HAVE THEIR OWN FACTS, DENY ATROCITIES COMMITTED• 17% of voters think it is a false story that Hamas terrorists killed 1200 Israeli civilians by shooting, raping and beheading people (ages 18-24: 32%; ages 65+: 10%).• 46% of voters say that Israel, not Hamas, rules Gaza (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 32%).• 33% of voters think the explosion at a Gaza hospital explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike rather than a terrorist rocket that went off-course (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 13%).BIDEN GETS GOOD RATINGS ON ISRAEL POLICY AS VOTERS THINK U.S. HAS RESPONSIBILITY TO HELP• 58% of voters approve of Biden's foreign policy on Israel(ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 61%).• 64% of voters say the U.S. has a responsibility to militarily support Israel while it is under attack by terrorist groups(ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 70%).• While Biden did not mention the U.S. hostages in his October 19 Oval Office address, 71% of voters think the U.S. has the responsibility to bring to safety the over a dozen Americans abducted by Hamas (ages 18-24: 42%; ages 65+: 81%).• 59% of voters say the U.S. should directly intervene if Iran attacks Israel (ages 18-24: 40%; ages 65+: 64%).REPUBLICAN VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF MCCARTHY OUSTER• 62% of GOP voters say the Republicans who ousted McCarthy are hurting the Republican Party.• 57% of GOP voters say that if House Republicans cannot elect another speaker before government funding runs out in 30 days, they should find a different candidate other than McCarthy.TRUMP LEADS THREE-WAY RACE WITH BIDEN AND RFK JR.• Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP primary race with 60% support.• Trump continues to lead Biden in a head-to-head contest, 46% to 41%.• Trump also leads in a three-way race against Biden and RFK Jr., 39% to 33% to 19%, respectively.The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 18-19, 2023, among 2,116 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. About The Harris Poll & HarrisXThe Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.President Joe Biden's approval rating remains at 42% after a new impeachment inquiry, which 53% of voters split along party lines support. The poll also covers the 2024 horse race and public opinion on issues such as illegal immigration and parental rights. Download key results here. “After a quiet summer, the electorate remains unhappy on the economy and a slew of other issues,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Since voters have hardened views on Biden and Trump, the primaries have not gotten competitive yet either.”INFLATION FRUSTRATIONS REMAINVoters continue to say inflation is the most important issue facing the country (33%), as well as the most important issue to them personally (39%). 64% say Bidenomics is not working.75% of voters, including over 70% from each party, think the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates enough. VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY53% of voters support the impeachment inquiry into Biden, with 51% of Independents against.57% say Biden helped Hunter get influence peddling contracts and 60% think Biden has made false or misleading statements about Hunter's business dealings.The country is split 50-50 on whether Biden's impeachment inquiry is politically motivated or raises legitimate legal questions; voters are split 50-50 on the same question regarding Donald Trump's prosecutions.TRUMP CONSOLIDATES SUPPORT AND LEADS BIDEN IN HEAD-TO-HEADTrump increases his lead among Republican voters to 57%, while Ron DeSantis continues falling to a distant second with 10%.In head-to-head presidential matchups, Biden loses to Trump by 5, Nikki Haley by 4, and Tim Scott by 2; he defeats Mike Pence by 6, Ron DeSantis by 4, and Vivek Ramaswamy by 2. AMERICANS FIND AGREEMENT ON IMMIGRATION AND PARENTAL RIGHTS71% of voters, including 53% of Democrats, think illegal immigration to the U.S. is getting worse. 87% of voters, including over 80% of each party, agree parents have a right to know if their children want to transition their gender.There is still goodwill towards teachers: 60% of voters, including 59% of Independents, say teachers are mostly trying to help kids get a better education, not push an ideology onto them.The September Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from September 12-14, 2023, among 2,103 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​ Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

Harris Poll Chairman / Stagwell CEO Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusackexplore findings of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted July 19-20 and released by Harvard's Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights and Analytics.Download the full report - key results, crosstabs and key findings.The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is conducted by The Harris Poll online within the United States every monthly and captures the responses of over 2,000 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.The Co-Directors of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll are:Stephen D. Ansolabehere – Professor of Government & Director, Center for American Political Studies, Harvard UniversityDritan Nesho – Fellow, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science & CEO of HarrisX

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack explore findings of the June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted June 14 and 15 among 2,090 registered voters.MOST AMERICANS UNHAPPYVoters remain politically split 50-50 but just about 100% are unhappy with the direction of the country, the economy, and their political leaders. Biden's approval is frozen in place despite the debt ceiling deal and a recovering stock market; yet Trump's numbers are also unshaken after an unprecedented federal indictment.BIDEN AND TRUMP STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITIONS- President Joe Biden's approval rating remains at 43% and Donald Trump continues to lead their 2024 matchup, by 6 points this month. The poll covers public opinion on the Trump federal indictment, electric vehicles and policy issues like parental rights.AMERICANS THINK THE CASE AGAINST TRUMP IS STRONG BUT WANT A PARDON- 58% of Americans think the case against Trump is strong, including 85% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans.- Voters are split 51-49, down party lines, on whether Trump's indictment is reason to withdraw from the 2024 race.- If Trump is convicted, 53% of voters – driven by 80% of Republicans – support pardoning him in the interest of national unity.MORE VOTERS PREFER TO LIVE IN A STATE WITH A REPUBLICAN-LEANING SLATE OF POLICIES- 64% of voters say they would want to live in a state that cuts taxes, encourages public charter schools, does not allow gender surgery for minors, and restricts most abortions after six weeks.- By contrast 66% of voters – including a majority of all parties – say they would not want to live in a state that has increasing taxes, restricts legal gun ownership more strictly, allows abortion up to 9 months, allows minors to get gender surgery without parental permission, encourages undocumented immigrants, and allows felons to vote.TRUMP AND BIDEN STRENGTHEN THEIR 2024 POSITIONS- Even after the indictment, 59% of Republicans would choose Trump in a GOP primary and he would beat Biden in a general election 45-39 (one point closer than last month).- Biden has strengthened his position with 62% support among Democratic voters in a primary – but Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is in second at 15% and his personal favorability rating is 21 points above water.AMERICANS OPPOSE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANDATES- Americans are split 50-50 on supporting the $7500 tax credit subsidy for an EV purchase.- 59% of voters oppose government regulations that would require at least half of all cars sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be electric.- Americans still like gas cars: 64% think they are better vehicles than EVs.- Voters are split on the net climate effect of EVs: Half of Americans, including most Republicans and Independents, think EVs produce just as much pollution through the car battery mining and production process.AMERICANS SATISFIED WITH SCHOOLS BUT WANT STRONGER PARENTAL RIGHTS- 74% of parents with school-aged children, including majorities of all parties, think schools are respecting their rights as parents.- 77% of voters oppose a law in their state that would allow minors to get gender-changing surgery and puberty blockers without parental permission, including 66% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.The June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from June 14-15, 2023, among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. 

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack dissect and interpret findings of the May Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted May 17-18, 2023, among 2,004 registered voters. ​ Donald Trump now beats Joe Biden by 7 points in a 2024 presidential matchup. Meanwhile half of voters have heard of the Durham report on the FBI's investigation of Trump and Russia, but they seem confused about its contents, as half mistakenly thought the report said the FBI investigation was well-founded.TRUMP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AFTER CNN TOWN HALLTrump now beats Biden in a 2024 general election by 7 points, 47-40.Trump stretched his lead in a GOP primary to 58% and Biden stretched his lead in a Democratic primary to 41%.VOTERS SEEM CONFUSED BY DURHAM REPORT ON FBI'S TRUMP INVESTIGATIONHalf of voters, evenly split across parties, have heard of the Durham report on the FBI's Trump-Russia probe.But Americans are confused about the Durham report's conclusion: half of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believed the report said the FBI's Trump investigation was well-founded, even though it said the opposite.52% of voters believe the Durham report was a fair examination, although 57% of Democrats said it was fair and 54% of Republicans said it was biased.70% of Democrats still believe Trump worked in concert with Russia to win the presidency and 71% believe the Steele dossier was a true story.MAJORITY OF VOTERS ACROSS ALL PARTIES WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES71% of voters, split evenly across the parties, have heard of the repeal of Title 42, a COVID-era immigration regulation that allowed the U.S. government to send those who attempted to cross the southern border illegally to Mexico to wait for a court date.54% of voters – including 67% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans – support the repeal of Title 42.53% of voters now think the Biden administration is just trying to enforce immigration laws more humanely, rather than creating an open border (which a majority of voters thought in December).But only 38% of voters approve of Biden's handling of immigration, down 2 points from last month.VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS35% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think Biden has signaled willingness to curb spending in the next year.Voters continue to want Democrats to cave and negotiate on the debt ceiling to prevent a default: 57% say so, up 2 points from last month.As default looms, 70% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think default would be a huge issue.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore the  April Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted April 18-19, 2023, among 1,845 registered voters. ​For the first time since last year, Americans' view of the economy has declined and the public continues to take the Republicans' side on debt negotiations, with 65% wanting Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending. Meanwhile the indictment has strengthened Donald Trump's standing among Republicans as he extends his lead in an open GOP primary to 55% support, while 65% of voters think Joe Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY WORSEN AFTER 3 MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENTSPartisanship determines Americans' view of the economy: 30% of voters overall say the economy on the right track, but 54% of Democrats think so compared to 12% of Republicans.52% of voters think their personal financial situation is getting worse.INDICTMENT STRENGTHENS TRUMP WITH REPUBLICANS AS DESANTIS FADES BUT IS NOT OUT50% of voters, up 4 points from last month, now think a Trump trial will help his candidacy.61% of voters believe Trump will ultimately be acquitted.In an open GOP primary Trump extends his lead to 55% support, with DeSantis falling to 20% support. In a head-to-head primary against DeSantis, Trump extends his lead to 61%.But 58% of Republican voters say DeSantis is ready to give Trump a “real challenge” for the Republican nomination.VOTERS THINK A BIDEN SECOND TERM MEANS PRESIDENT HARRIS63% of voters think Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.THE PUBLIC CONTINUES TO TAKE THE REPUBLICANS' SIDE ON DEBT NEGOTIATIONS66% of voters think the U.S. government has too much debt and 55% think the government is spending too much.When told the national debt is $31 trillion, 65% of voters want Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending.81% of voters, including 81% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans, support returning the country to a balanced budget.CRIME CONCERNS BECOME LESS PARTISAN AS VOTERS WANT STRICTER PROSECUTION86% of voters think crime is a serious issue right now and 48% think crime and safety are getting worse in their own communities.60% of voters, including 52% of Democrats, think police today are afraid of doing their jobs.58% of Americans, including 43% of Democrats, think big city district attorneys are pulling back from prosecuting violent offenders sufficiently.Voters most blame rising crime in American cities on the worsening economy (23%) and prosecutors who don't enforce the laws (22%).REGULAR AMERICANS AREN'T FAMILIAR WITH ESG64% of voters have not heard of ESG investing.Americans are split on ESG strategies: after being given the definition, 52% of voters think investment managers have a duty to prioritize returns above all else rather than the option to consider climate and ESG concerns.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore the findings of the March Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted March 22-23 among 2,905 registered voters. ​KEY TAKEAWAYS:Joe Biden and Donald Trump are solidifying support among their bases as both stretched their lead by 4-5 points in their respective primaries among party voters. While Americans were very concerned about inflation, 71% think the banking crisis will impact them not at all or only a little bit. Voters are united in seeing China as an enemy (75% think so), but they are split on banning TikTok in the U.S. completely versus allowing it to operate with certain conditions.VOTERS APPROVE OF GOVERNMENT'S BANK INTERVENTIONS BUT AREN'T PERSONALLY CONCERNED ABOUT BANKING CRISIS67% of voters agree with the Biden administration's decision to step in and guarantee all customer deposits from Silicon Valley Bank and other failed banks.77% of voters think the government should fully insure deposits at all US banks, not only systematically important firms.Americans aren't worried about the banking crisis reaching them: 71% think the bank failures will impact them not at all or only a little bit. 67% think the deposits in their own banks are safe.Americans care more about inflation than the banking crisis: 54% of voters believe the Federal Reserve should prioritize fighting inflation even if it means allowing banks to fail and could lead to a financial crisis in the short term.AMERICANS AGREE TRUMP INDICTMENT LOOKS POLITICAL BUT SUPPORT OR OPPOSE IT ALONG PARTY LINESVoters are split evenly along party lines on whether they think the Manhattan DA should indict Trump.59% think the indictment is politically motivated, and 67% think the Trump payment in question was a personal, not a campaign, payment.61% of voters, including half of Republicans, agree that Trump's calls for protests in case he is arrested were irresponsible.AMERICANS UNITED IN CONCERN ABOUT CHINA BUT SPLIT ON TIKTOK BAN75% of voters see China as an enemy of the US, and 80% think it seeks to replace the US as the key player in global affairs.55% of voters think Biden's foreign policy is too weak on China.Voters support banning TikTok on government devices (75%) but are split on how to handle TikTok for the public: 45% support a full ban in the US, while 46% support allowing the app with conditions such as forcing it to undergo regular security reviews or forcing its Chinese owners to sell their stakes.TRUMP AND BIDEN SOLIDIFY THEIR SUPPORT AHEAD OF PRIMARY SEASON BUT TRUMP HAS A CLEAR CHALLENGERBiden rose 5 points to 41% support in a hypothetical Democratic primary, while Trump rose 4 points to 50% support in a hypothetical Republican primary.A Biden-Trump rematch now looks probable: 57% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the Republican primary, while 60% of Democratic and Independent voters think Biden will win the Democratic primary.Trump has a clear challenger while Biden does not: Ron DeSantis trails Trump in a head-to-head primary matchup by 12 points.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore and decipher the February Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted February 15-16 among 1,838 registered voters. ​BIDEN HASN'T RECEIVED A BUMP FROM THE STATE OF THE UNIONBiden's State of the Union was received in a partisan manner: voters were split 50-50 on whether they found the speech favorable, and his approval rating remains at 42%.35% of voters said they did not watch any of the speech.On Biden's back-and-forth with Republicans on entitlements: 56% of voters believe Republican members of Congress are trying to cut Social Security and Medicare.VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT SPENDING CURBS INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMMost voters continue to side with the Republicans on the looming debt ceiling fight: 62% want Congress to raise the limit only with spending constraints, and 63% think Democrats should negotiate.Voters acknowledge Medicare and Social Security can't continue without change: 57% think Medicare and Social Security do need reforms to remain solvent.  NIKKI HALEY GETS SOME MOMENTUMNikki Haley rises after her presidential campaign announcement although most voters are still not familiar with her: among GOP voters she rose to third place in a potential GOP primary that does not feature Trump.Ron DeSantis is slipping slightly: among GOP voters he dropped 10 points in a potential GOP primary without Trump although he is still the frontrunner.The GOP field is open: only 54% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the GOP primary if he runs.AMERICANS ARE CHINA HAWKSThe shot-down surveillance balloon is a major concern to Americans: 66% of voters think it represented a challenge to US sovereignty by China.Americans thought Biden did too little in response: 63% think the Biden administration acted too slowly in shooting down the balloon.Americans also want more answers on the balloon and subsequent shot-down aerial objects: 82% support Congress investigating, and 75% want Biden to disclose what the administration knows.Americans are concerned about China's aggression in other areas: 69% of voters think China is planning to invade Taiwan in the next 3 years.AMERICANS DOUBT BIDEN ON FOREIGN POLICY ACROSS THE WORLD Biden's foreign policy approval is low: 40% of voters think Biden has not done a good job on foreign policy including Afghanistan, Ukraine, and China – compared to 27% who think he has done a good job.56% of voters think Biden is not up to handling challenges from China, Russia, and Iran.AMERICANS STILL SUPPORT BIG TECH BUT ARE SUSPICIOUS OF TIKTOK60-70% of voters do not want Big Tech companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, or Microsoft) to be broken up.TikTok faces more suspicion: 59% of voters think TikTok spies on its US users.Voters are split on a full TikTok ban: 46% think TikTok should be allowed to operate in the US only if the app undergoes regular security reviews of its code base; 42% support a total ban.The FTC is seen as partisan: 48% of voters think it acts as a Democratic agency.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack discuss the  January Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted January 18-19, among 2,050 registered voters. ​ Download KEY FINDINGS.Ahead of the looming debt ceiling fight, 63% of voters want Congress to raise the limit but with restraints on future spending.President Joe Biden faces bipartisan scrutiny over his misplaced classified documents as over 7 in 10 voters support both a House of Representatives and an FBI investigation.  BIDEN'S CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS CONCERN MOST AMERICANS, INCLUDING DEMOCRATS64% of voters, including 44% of Democrats, think the presence of classified documents in several unsecure locations is a “serious” breach of national security.Half of voters, including one-third of Democrats, think the DOJ treated Biden's classified documents case more leniently than Donald Trump's.74% of voters, including two-thirds of Democrats, support the Attorney General's appointment of a special prosecutor for the Biden documents case.VOTERS SIDE WITH REPUBLICANS ON DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS AND SPENDING RESTRAINTSAmericans care greatly about default: 69% of voters, including over two-thirds of each party, think a temporary debt default would be a “huge issue.”When given the size of the national debt ($31 trillion), 63% of voters want Congress to raise the debt limit only with restraints on future spending.Americans side with the GOP on negotiations: 61% of voters, including a slim majority of Democrats themselves, think the Democrats should cave to prevent a default.KEVIN MCCARTHY EMERGES WITH MODERATE CONSERVATIVE IMAGE FROM THE SPEAKERSHIP FIGHT, NOT FAR RIGHT78% of voters see McCarthy as moderate or conservative, not far right.53% of voters, including a majority of both parties, think McCarthy will work with Democrats to create bipartisan legislation.SUPPORT FOR SOCIAL SECURITY AND IMMIGRATION LEGISLATION UNITES AMERICANS85% of voters, including 88% of Republicans, want legislation that secures Social Security for two more decades.Two-thirds of voters, including 62% of Republicans, want compromise immigration legislation that strengthens the border but also gives DACA recipients a path to citizenship.AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON NON-COMPETES BUT WANT MORE CRYPTOCURRENCY REGULATION60% of Democrats support and 60% of Republicans oppose the prospect of an FTC executive order that would ban all non-compete agreements.A majority of voters want more regulation on cryptocurrencies and consumer privacy/security on the Internet, but less or equal regulation on marijuana.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore and decipher the findings of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted from December 14-15, 2022, among 1,851 registered voters. Key takeaways:Nearly two-thirds of voters believe Twitter shadow-banned users and engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election. Seventy percent also want new national laws protecting users from corporate censorship.Joe Biden's approval rating remains steady at 42% as two-thirds of Americans think inflation is still increasing. Ron DeSantis continues his ascent as the poll shows him defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup for the first time.AMERICANS THINK INFLATION IS INCREASING AND WILL LINGER66% of voters think inflation is increasing, and 61% of voters think inflation will continue for at least another year.But Americans see economic troubles easing slightly: the percentage of voters who think the economy is heading in the right track and who are optimistic about their lives next year both increased by 3 points.Voters are split on whether Biden's policies caused inflation.IT'S NOW A TWO-WAY GOP RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND DESANTISTrump is still the GOP frontrunner in an open field: 48% of GOP voters would choose him in a primary, compared to 25% for DeSantis.But in a GOP head-to-head, DeSantis defeats Trump by 4 points if GOP-leaning Independent voters are included; Trump wins the head-to-head by 10 points among only GOP voters.For the first time, the poll shows DeSantis defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup, by 4 points; Trump would also defeat Biden by 5 points.VOTERS BELIEVE TWITTER ENGAGED IN POLITICAL CENSORSHIP AND ARE ROOTING FOR ELON MUSKAmericans believe in the Twitter Files revelations: 64% think Twitter was secretly shadow banning users, and 64% also think Twitter engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election.Americans like Elon Musk: 61% think Musk is trying to clean up Twitter from abuses, and his personal favorability is 8 points above water.70% of voters, including strong majorities across the political spectrum, support new national laws protecting internet users from corporate censorship.AMERICANS THINK ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS A SERIOUS ISSUE BUT DON'T KNOW THE NUMBERSVoters are concerned about the effects of Biden's immigration policies: 67% think they have encouraged illegal immigration, and 57% think they are increasing the flow of drugs and crime.Americans are unfamiliar with the extent of illegal immigration: 64% correctly said the number of illegal border crossings has increased under Biden, but the median voter underestimated that number by a factor of 10 (250-500 thousand vs. 2-3 million).Two-thirds of Americans want Biden to issue stricter policies to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants, when told the actual number of illegal crossings in the last year (over 2.75 million).

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. This survey was conducted online within the United States from November 16-17, 2022 among 2,212 registered voters. When asked by Cusack to summarize the first poll conducted after 2022 Midterm Elections, Penn offered "FIZZLE".  Download the FULL POLL and TRANSCRIPT.Democrats outperformed expectations in the midterms as they closed the turnout gap by taking advantage of early voting and driving their core issues of protecting democracy and abortion to be most salient after the economy. On the Republican side, Florida governor Ron DeSantis emerged as a big winner. His support in a 2024 GOP primary increased by 11 points among GOP voters while Donald Trump's fell 9 points, although Trump still leads with 46%.Looking ahead to the new government, a strong majority of voters want to curb Congressional spending, and support for Ukraine is fracturing as Republicans and Independents increasingly soften on the rising price tag of supporting the war.Other key findings include:MIDTERM RESULTS DEMOCRATS MADE UP THE TURNOUT DEFICITDemocrats closed the gap from the pre-election poll which had Likely Voters +3 for the GOP and Registered Voters tied 50-50Democrats took advantage of the early and absentee vote: 52% of Democrats voted before Election Day, compared to 45% of Republicans.One third of Independents sat out the election.Democrats successfully highlighted their core issues: the economy was the most important issue across the board (42%), but protecting democracy (18%) and abortion (16%) were next.UNHAPPINESS WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN PLACEPresident Biden's approval is flat at 43 percent.4 in 10 voters believe the country is in a recession, and another 4 in 10 think it will be in a recession next year.AMERICAN PRIORITIES FOR THE NEXT CONGRESSVOTERS WANT MODERATE SENSIBLE POLICIESRoughly 80% of voters agree they want to reduce misinformation on the Internet and curb Congressional spending.Voters want the parties to moderate themselves: 62% think the Democrats have moved too far to the left, and 56% think the Republicans have moved too far to the right.VOTERS EXPECT A SLATE OF INVESTIGATIONS FROM THE NEW HOUSEVoters want more clarity on possible political bias: Strong majorities think the House should investigate the Hunter Biden laptop (65%), whether technology companies have been censoring political speech (74%), and whether politics have been affecting the FBI's actions (77%).The January 6 committee continues to be unpopular: 62% of voters want the House to end it.UKRAINE SUPPORT IS SOFTENINGSupport for costly aid packages is decreasing among Republicans and Independents: 61% of Republicans and 59% of Independents oppose providing another $27 billion in aid to Ukraine.

Every month, Mark Penn, Harris Poll Chairman and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill review the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. This month's poll was released together with The Hill this week. The October poll was conducted from October 12-13, 2022, among 2,010 registered voters. ​(Link to the full poll here).Republicans are inching closer towards a wave election as they connect with voters on their key issues of inflation, crime, and immigration. The GOP is now winning the generic Congressional ballot 53-47 among likely voters.Biden continues to struggle, especially on the economy: 84% of Americans think the US is in a recession now or will be by next year, and 55% blame Biden for inflation – including 42% of Democrats. The president's recent policies on student debt relief and marijuana pardons are popular but don't move the needle electorally for the Democrats.Other key findings include:VOTERS THINK REPUBLICANS ARE ADDRESSING THEIR TOP ISSUES MORE THAN DEMOCRATSInflation, crime, and immigration are the most important issues voters picked heading into the midterms – and based on each, voters say they are over 10 points more likely to vote Republican than Democratic.Americans think Republican leaders are most concerned with immigration, inflation, and the economy – while Democratic leaders are most concerned with January 6, women's rights, and the environment.AMERICANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A RECESSION84% of voters think the US is in a recession now or will be in one by next year.58% are not confident in the Biden administration's ability to keep inflation at bay.Americans are worried about the Fed: 74% think the Fed will cause a recession.BIDEN'S DEBT RELIEF AND MARIJUANA PARDON POLICIES ARE POPULAR BUT DON'T MOVE THE NEEDLE ELECTORALLY67% approve of Biden's marijuana pardon, but it has no net effect on the electorate: 36% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 35% say more likely to vote Democratic.It's a similar story for Biden's student debt relief: 58% support his act – but 41% say it has made them more likely to vote Republican, compared to 35% Democratic.AMERICANS LEAN TOWARDS HAWKISH FOREIGN POLICY ON OIL AND RUSSIA65% oppose easing sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela as a way to lower gas and oil prices; instead, they want greater output of American oil and gas.54% think the US should cut military sales and technical aid to the Saudi Arabian government in response to their oil production cut.Voters are split on whether or not Biden's policies on Ukraine are pushing us towards nuclear war, and a majority remain supportive of providing aid to Ukraine.If Russia uses a nuclear weapon on Ukraine, 59% of Americans are willing to send in NATO.

Harris Poll Chairman / Stagwell Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and The Hill's JULIA MANCHESTER discuss the latest Harvard-Harris Poll, conducted September 7-8 among 1,885 registered voters. VIDEO - KEY RESULTS - CROSSTABS - TOPLINE - LINKEDIN - FACEBOOK - INSTAGRAM - TWITTER PUZZLING - The midterms remain nearly a dead heat even though President Joe Biden's approval rating is still underwater at 41%. Inflation remains the biggest concern for voters, over half of whom say the Inflation Reduction Act is more likely to increase rather than decrease inflation. While student debt relief is having little net effect on Democrats' outlook, the overturn of Roe v. Wade is increasing likelihood to vote Democratic.Results also show the FBI's raid of Donald Trump's residence has not hurt the standing of the former president, whom voters would still pick in a presidential election over Joe Biden if the 2024 election were held today. Americans are evenly split on whether the raid was politically motivated, but a clear majority, 58%, think appointing a special master to review the documents taken by the Department of Justice is reasonable.DEMOCRATS HOLD THE DAM AS INFLATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN Biden's approval has ticked up slightly to 41% as voter sentiment on his administration's handling of inflation and unemployment improves.The generic Congressional ballot remains tight, 51-49 in favor of the Democrats.Inflation remains the biggest concern for both Democrats and Republicans, followed by abortion rights for Democrats and immigration for Republicans.BIDEN'S SPEECH ON MAGA REPUBLICANS IS UNPOPULAR AS AMERICANS WORRY ABOUT DIVIDING THE COUNTRYBiden's September 1 speech in Philadelphia, in which he called Trump and MAGA Republicans a threat to the country, is viewed as divisive: 56% of voters, including 62% of Independents, opposed it.Biden's approval has ticked up slightly to 41% as voter sentiment on his administration's handling of inflation and unemployment improve.More Americans are concerned about the socialist left rather than MAGA Republicans gaining power, 55-45.AMERICANS WANT TO INVESTIGATE THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY The Hunter Biden laptop story is not going away: 59% of Americans think the laptop story is genuine, not Russian disinformation. 63% of voters think the FBI helped suppress the story by telling tech companies it could be Russian disinformation.63% of voters think the DOJ should appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the Biden laptop.BIDEN'S STUDENT LOAN RELIEF DOES NOT AFFECT MANY AMERICANS OR MAKE THEM WANT TO VOTE DEMOCRATICAmericans are evenly split on Biden's cancellation of up to $20,000 of debt for couples making up to $250,000.Only 17% of Americans say they will be personally helped by the program.Voters are skeptical of Biden's method: 56% think it was wrong of Biden to act without Congress, and 52% think his executive order will ultimately be deemed unconstitutional.

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. 2,000 registered voters were surveyed July 28-29, 2022. When asked how he'd sum up the latest polling numbers, Penn offered "HOPE".TRANSCRIPTPenn: I think this month's word is "HOPE". I think this poll shows that all is not lost for the Democrats, despite a very difficult situation out there. A president with very low ratings, the congressional horse race still remains close, which means that Democrats should not give up the ship here and have some hope.Cusack: And that hope certainly would be in keeping the Senate. You know, the House is going to be difficult to retain based upon history and the president's numbers. Why do you think Democrats have had a little bit of a bump here, as you mentioned, and why do you think that the congressional generic polling is, is a dead heat with Biden's numbers still lowPenn: Well, Biden staying at 38% job approval and disapproval on virtually every major issue. But I think in some ways voters have come to separate Biden who they largely think is incompetent or not a good president from the democratic party and the democratic cause in general, as opposed to the Republicans. And so I think the Democrats have some things going for them, certainly choice in guns, helped rally. I think some of their supporters who otherwise really didn't have a big issue that they could fasten on because the election had been otherwise been dominated by inflation and immigration and crime, all Republican leaning, all Republican leading issues. So, and I think finally, you know, the Republican party is a divided party and Trump is knocking down half of the nominees. Some of the Trump nominees that were successful in the primaries are having, you know, a lot of trouble in the general election, particularly Oz in Pennsylvania. And they don't have an effective message machine out there right now. So, so that kind of tilts the page that maybe the, maybe tilts the odds just a little bit from what would otherwise have been a pretty dire situation.Cusack: And of course, Democrats can't get too over confident. The numbers on the economy are not good. There's an intensifying debate on whether we're in a recession or not. Technically we have not heard from this nonprofit group called the National Bureau of Economic Research, which decides that though we have had data of negative growth in consecutive quarters. What the economic numbers mean to you, Mark? And do you think this whole issue of a recession, does it matter? Because a lot of people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one?Penn: Well, most people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one, as you say, but we are definitely in a polling recession. If I were the national bureau of polling, would I declare an economic recession? Absolutely. Because we have 67% who say that the economy is on the wrong track and we have 56% of Americans saying their personal economic situation is worsening. These numbers reflect at least a polling recession. For sure. And I do think this debate about recession or not. I mean, you could Google it every single source and news thing until yesterday has always said that that two quarters of contracting grosses a recession. Recession's not a dep

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. 1,308 registered voters were surveyed earlier this week between June 28-29, 2022. (Link to the full poll here).  When asked how he'd sum up the latest polling numbers, Penn offered "CATACLYSMIC".FULL TRANSCRIPTBob Cusack, The Hill (00:00):To capture the polling that you did, what's the ONE word you'd pick?Mark Penn, The Harris Poll (00:08):CataclysmicBob Cusack, The Hill (00:10):And why is that?Mark Penn, The Harris Poll (00:12):Well, because the public feeling of, uh, that the economy is on the wrong track and that their personal lives are deteriorating is overwhelming in this poll with 70% or more saying the economy is on the wrong track with the notion that, that their personal lives were deteriorating shooting up so dramatically. Uh, I think that, uh, almost 80% either think we're going into a recession or we're in a recession. I think somehow the message of economic doom and gloom has been completely communicated to this electorate. And that makes for a very, very sour electorate.Bob Cusack, The Hill (00:55):Your polling, Mark, now has the President at 38%. Usually he's been in the low forties in your polls. And obviously this is a very different summer, than last summer when Biden basically had some type of honeymoon Afghanistan hadn't really, turned into the debacle that it did, and his numbers were much higher. Um, you see, the left is frustrated with Biden, you know, compare the numbers of Biden now to Trump, because it seems like with Trump, he was always in the forties and he held down to the base. I know you made the case and I agree with you that he should have gone for more independence, but Biden's losing everybody right now. 

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. This month's survey of 2,000 registered voters was conducted May 18-19, 2022. When asked how he'd sum up the mood of the country in just one word, Penn offered "INFLATION".  The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is a monthly poll released by Harvard's Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights and Analytics. Conducted online within the United States, every monthly survey captures the responses of over 2,000 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. This month's survey of 1,966 registered voters was conducted between April 20 - April 21, 2022. (Link to the full poll is here). When asked how he'd sum up the mood of the country in just one word, Penn offered "FEAR".  This was also the theme of Penn's April 25 Opinion essay in The New York Times: American Voters Haven't Been Afraid Like This in a Long Time ."In a rare convergence, America's voters are not merely unhappy with their political leadership, but awash in fears about economic security, border security, international security and even physical security. Without a U-turn by the Biden administration, this fear will generate a wave election like those in 1994 and 2010, setting off a chain reaction that could flip the House and the Senate to Republican control in November, and ultimately the presidency in 2024.Take the economy, so often the harbinger of election results. From late 2017 until the pandemic, a majority of Americans believed that the economy was strong, and from 2014 until the pandemic at least a plurality believed their personal economic situation was improving. Covid-19 cut sharply into that feeling of well-being; this was initially seen as temporary, though, and trillions of dollars flowed into keeping people afloat. But then near-double-digit inflation hit consumers for the first time in 40 years; 60 percent of voters now see the economy as weak and 48 percent say their financial situation is worsening, according to a Harris poll conducted April 20-21. Many Americans under 60 have relatively little experience with anything but comparatively low fuel costs, negligible interest rates and stable prices. Virtually overnight these assumptions have been shaken. Only 35 percent approve of President Biden's handling of inflation. FULL OP-ED

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris poll. This month's survey of 1,990 registered voters was conducted between March 23-24, 2022. (Link to the full poll is here). Despite a slight uptick in optimism for the direction of the country and economy, Biden's approval rating remains at 39%. A little more than half of voters have doubts about his mental fitness and ability to handle difficult international situations, while 6 in 10 deem him too old for office. GOP support heading into the midterm election is now strong. In the Congressional horserace, Republicans edge out Democrats 53 to 47, winning two thirds of the Independent vote, and leading among suburbanites, men, women, middled-aged, and older voters. Inflation and soaring prices (32%), the economy and unemployment (27%), and immigration (21%) have taken as the top issues among voters, while concern over COVID is quickly falling in priority. Three out of four voters say they have been affected by inflation directly at the grocery line and the gas pump. 8 out of 10 voters expect inflation to stay high or get worse, and public opinion is split on whether the Fed should be toggling interest rates in this economic climate or whether that would result in worse outcomes. Blame for the uptick in oil prices is placed on Biden (64%) and Putin (72%). In this environment, two thirds of voters want Biden to relax climate change policies and loosen regulations on domestic drilling of oil and gas. Today, more than three fourths of voters support restarting the Keystone pipeline to alleviate costs. Voters resoundingly want more action taken by US & NATO leadership when it comes to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Seven out of ten voters want more punishing economic sanctions; 76% want the U.S. and NATO to send missile defense systems; and 71% would send military aircraft to Ukraine. 57% support a no-fly zone despite the risks of directly engaging with Russia's military; however, voters are split on boots on the ground, with just less than half supporting this action. Today an overwhelming majority of American voters (86%) believe Russia's actions to be war crimes punishable by the international court of justice, with equal numbers believing Putin is directly responsible for these war crimes. Sanctioning Russia through private business interruption remains very popular, as an overwhelming majority (three-fourths) want American companies, big tech and even fast-food companies to suspend operations in the Kremlin. Public opinion on some of the other topics in the news offers interesting insights into the voice of American voters. 57% of voters support the confirmation of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. A large majority of voters oppose sexuality being discussed at the elementary school level, and around two thirds of voters oppose transitioning athletes competing in opposite sex sports events.

Presidential Pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK, Editor-in-Chief of The Hill discuss NEW Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, fielded among 2,026 registered votes Feb. 23-24, just as Russia's incursion into Ukraine was beginning to take shape. The findings reflect a bleak mood among the American body politic, shaped by worsening economic expectations and a perceived lack of strength on Ukraine. (Link to the full poll is here).These timely findings, and much more covering the Supreme Court nominee, crime, and covid are available in the poll. As always feel free to reach out with questions and follow my podcast about the poll at www.MARKPENNPOLLS.com (full episode) or any of the following channels: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.President Biden's job approval is at its lowest point in our poll -- 38 percent. Only a third of voters say that Biden is doing a good job on the economy and stimulating jobs. Further, 54% say Biden say they are not confide Biden is able to handle difficult international issues like Ukraine. 64% say he is showing he is too old and 53% have doubts about his mental fitness for officePresident Biden is seen as being weak on Russia in the lead-up to the Ukraine invasion. Sixty-four percent see Biden as having been too lenient on Russia. Fifty-nine percent say Vladimir Putin sees weakness in Biden that is why he is moving on Ukraine  (including 55% of independents). And 62 percent say Putin would not have moved against Ukraine if Trump was president (including 63% of independents). 

Each month, Mark Penn, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Chairman & CEO and Bob Cusack, Editor-in-Chief of The Hill, discuss the latest Harvard-Harris Poll. The latest poll was conducted January 20-21 among 2,000 registered voters nationwide. For regular updates, follow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter, @mark-penn-polls on LinkedIn, @MarkPennPolls on Facebook and @mark_penn_polls on Instagram.Bob Cusack:Mark, some interesting polling here, Harvard Harris, if you had to sum it up in one word, what would that word be?Mark Penn:Well, "divot" would be my word because I called on the president to pivot, and instead he dug a divot, meaning he just swung his club exactly the same place that he did before, expecting a different result. And he doubled down on a strategy that is failing, and his presidency grows weaker and weaker.Bob Cusack:Looking at some of the data here, I mean, 63% wrong track on the economy. That's pretty bad for the president. His COVID numbers, not as bad as some of these other issues like crime, which 64% believe is increasing in big cities. His head-to-head numbers with Trump, Trump at 53, Biden at 47, as far as who's a better president. And I think it's fascinating that independents, 55% say Trump better president than Biden, and Trump's suburban numbers are better than Biden's. And that's part of the reason that Joe Biden is president is because of the suburbs.Bob Cusack:And heading into the midterms, what were your kind of just takeaways of the biggest issues or problems this president has? I mean, this is wintertime for Democrats without a doubt. The summertime was much better. The winter has been really rough for the president.Mark Penn:Well, I think the president is facing personal questions, because 61% say that he is too old. And when I ask people what concerns them the most about the president, people say, "Whether or not he's competent." And so I think this presidency is stripped to the bone in terms of this basic question, can the president effectively serve the nation? And that's a problem. I mean, I've never quite seen that before, in the worst days of Clinton or Obama. Trump, of course there were a lot of questions about his mental fitness for office, but they actually never amounted to 61%. So I think that's a core question before you even get to what I'd say is the kind of foreign policy, domestic policy and legislative policy, right?Mark Penn:And so on a foreign policy point of view, Afghanistan was a disaster. It continues to get 30, 31% approval. And now we're heading into a potential Ukraine disaster. President said, "Well, maybe if they took a little, it would be not, who knows?" And that left a remarkable opening for Putin. I can't imagine, and I always hate saying this because other people do, I can't imagine if Trump had said that. I just can't imagine what the headlines would have been. If Trump had said, "Well, he could take a little bit of the Ukraine." 

Each month, Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill, discuss findings from the latest Harvard-Harris Poll, a collaboration with the Center for American Political Studies.The latest poll was conducted November 27-28 among more than 2,000 registered voters nationwide.SUBSCRIBE to receive full polling report and data each month and follow Mark Penn Polls on social for regular updates: Twitter: @Mark_Penn_PollsLinkedIn: Mark-Penn-PollsFacebook: MarkPennPollsInstagram: @mark_penn_pollsMark Penn:Welcome to the podcast with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, editor in chief of The Hill and we're going to discuss this month's Harvard CAPS Harris Poll that's just come out of the field with almost 2,000 interviews and I think it's going to be a provocative discussion as public opinion in the United States continues to harden, mostly against the administration. Particularly as the virus is seen as growing and the economy is seen as sinking.Bob Cusack:So Mark, if you had one word to really capture this month's polling, what would it be?Mark Penn:The word would be "cementing". The negative attitudes towards the administration are now being set as set as immigration, crime, core issues, now also next to that are the economy and the virus is going up, producing a negative mood and the gap in the leadership the people are looking for. These negative ratings that we saw during the summer that happened during Afghanistan have really cemented now and that's going to mean real problems for the democrats and this administration unless they act and act in a really big way.Bob Cusack:What was the most surprising thing? Because there's a lot of data here, there's presidential, there's virus data. What surprised you the most this month?Mark Penn:I was surprised most by the fact that the public mood is turning so sour in such a short period of time. This is almost a repeat of what happened with Obama but almost to a greater swing where there was so much promise, we have a democratic president, we're no longer governed by Trump, it's a new day, the economy is tooling along. All of those things looked so great in the spring and now the public is like my situation is getting worse, they see inflation, the economy is on the wrong track, they don't like the president, they're turning on the democratic party, a little bit on the republican. I mean it's just a sour mood out there. And as you know, when the public mood is sour, incumbents better watch out.Bob Cusack:That's right. I mean we're seeing a lot of democrats retire instead of seek re-election. That's always a telling sign that the party is not going to do that great going into the midterm. The virus is back as a top issue. And you really have to, sometimes, step back also. I know we do this every month, but we're still in the first year of the Biden presidency. And I know honeymoons don't last forever and Joe Biden's honeymoon is way over. But aren't these bad numbers? Again, they were good earlier this year and we talked about that. But for a first year president, these numbers are kind of troubling, aren't they?

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn is joined by Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill, to discuss a new Harvard-Harris Poll, fielded October 26-28, 2021.SUBSCRIBE: https://harvardharrispoll.comTWITTER: https://twitter.com/Mark_Penn_PollsLINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/mark-penn-polls/FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/MarkPennPollsINSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/mark_penn_polls/Mark Penn (00:07):All right. Welcome to the discussion of the October 26 - 28 Harvard CAPS Harris Poll, administered by myself, Dritan Nesho and Professor Stephen Ansolabehere, of the Harvard CAPS Center. You can always check for the full results at HarvardHarrisPoll.com. We'll be improving that website, if not this month, probably by the next. And you can listen to us have a pretty good discussion with Bob Cusack, Editor-in-Chief of The Hill.Bob Cusack (00:42):Thanks, Mark. As far as this polling, it's more bad news for The President. I mean, what do you think summarizes all this data that you have? What is the word that comes across or sentence, for The White House, looking at these really dismal numbers?Mark Penn (01:04):"SINKING" - The White House continues to sink, right? And they're sinking now. And in, because the economy is seen by the average voter, as deteriorating, is on the wrong track and inflation is coming in and higher gas prices. And ironically, even as people see the, uh, virus is receding, the administration is not getting any credit. What really is happening here is that in the past, when the virus seemed to be receding, there was sort of an economic euphoria, oh, this is great. We're going to get back. Now, the virus is receding, but people say, well, now I'm really worried about what's happening here in the economy, taxing spending inflation deficits. I mean, that leaves aside all the other issues, but I think that's the most troublesome thing right now for this administration.Bob Cusack (02:03):And that dynamic, I think is so important because as we've gone through this pandemic since March of 2020, we've done, you've done a lot of polls. We've talked about it a lot when it was really bad, obviously that hurt The President. A lot of people think that if COVID hadn't come along then Trump would be in a second term, or if he handled COVID just a bit better. He would still be President. Is this the first time you're seeing this fading as an issue, but, but the president not, not getting any credit? Because this summer, if I'm not mistaken, he was getting some credit.

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss a NEW HARVARD HARRIS POLL, fielded September 15-16, 2021 among 1,578 registered voters by The Harris Poll. KEY TAKEAWAYS:A MAJORITY OF VOTERS SAY THE COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACKA MAJORITY OF VOTERS SAY THE ECONOMY IS ON THE WRONG TRACKVOTERS INCREASINGLY SEE THE STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY AS DECREASINGVOTERS' FINANCIAL SITUATION APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AGAINBIDEN'S APPROVAL FALLS FOR SECOND WAVE IN A ROW - NOW 48%BIDEN'S JOB PERFORMANCE HAS SLID BELOW 50% IN SEVERAL AREASBRIGHT SPOT: HE REMAINS POSITIVE IN HANDLING COVID-19GOP AND DEMOCRATIC APPROVAL REMAIN TIED - 43%TERRORISM/NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERN INCREASED 13% SINCE LAST POLLDOWNLOAD ENTIRE REPORTBob Cusack has been reporting on policy and politics in the nation's capital since 1995. He joined The Hill as Business and Lobbying editor in 2003 and became the newspaper's managing editor a year later. He became the editor in chief in 2014. Cusack has won five awards from the National Press Club and the Society of Professional Journalists for investigative articles on a range of issues, including national security, healthcare and 2008 presidential politics surrounding Hurricane Katrina. Cusack regularly appears on MSNBC, Fox, ABC and CNN as a political analyst. Before joining The Hill, Cusack was a chief editor at Inside Washington Publishers. A native of New York City, Cusack received his B.A. in journalism from Loyola College in Maryland. He is a member of the Screen Actors Guild and has appeared in commercials, television shows and feature films.Mark Penn is CEO of Stagwell Global, a private equity fund focused on the marketing services industry. In this role, Penn directs the acquisition process and oversees the Group's portfolio companies. Mark Penn's career spans 40 years in advertising, market research, public relations, polling and consulting.  He has advised top world leaders, led companies, and written two bestselling books.  Prior to founding Stagwell, Mark served in senior executive positions at Microsoft. As Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, he was responsible for working on core strategic issues across the company, blending data-analytics

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn is joined by Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill, to discuss a new Harvard-Harris Poll, fielded July 28-29, 2021 among 1,788 registered voters.TOPLINE FINDINGS- BIDEN HONEYMOON HAS COME TO AN END - APPROVAL SLIPPED 10 POINTS- AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER COUNTRY IS ON RIGHT OR WRONG TRACK- THERE'S BEEN A REVERSAL IN PERCEPTIONS OF THE DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY- PERCEIVED STRENGTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY TOOK A DIP MONTH OVER MONTH- MORE VOTERS SAY THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION IS GETTING WORSE, UP 9 POINTSSINCE MARCH- SEVERAL JOB APPROVAL METRICS ARE WORSENING, CORE AMONG THEM MANAGING THE ECONOMY, REACTING TO COVID, DEALING WITH CRIME &  VIOLENCE - DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL IS AT 48%, DOWN 7 POINTS- GOP APPROVAL MATCHES DEMOCRATIC APPROVAL, BUT ALSO DOWN 5 POINTS- OVERALL CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL HAS SLIPPED BY 9 POINTS- THE DELTA VARIANT HAS PRIORITIZED COVID-19 AS THE COUNTRY'S TOP ISSUEDOWNLOAD THE POLLBob Cusack has been reporting on policy and politics in the nation's capital since 1995. He joined The Hill as Business and Lobbying editor in 2003 and became the newspaper's managing editor a year later. He became the editor in chief in 2014.Cusack has won five awards from the National Press Club and the Society of Professional Journalists for investigative articles on a range of issues, including national security, healthcare and 2008 presidential politics surrounding Hurricane Katrina.Cusack regularly appears on MSNBC, Fox, ABC and CNN as a political analyst.Before joining The Hill, Cusack was a chief editor at Inside Washington Publishers.A native of New York City, Cusack received his B.A. in journalism from Loyola College in Maryland. He is a member of the Screen Actors Guild and has appeared in commercials, television shows and feature films.Mark Penn is the President and Managing Partner of The Stagwell Group, a private equity fund focused on the marketing services industry. In this role, Penn directs the acquisition process and oversees the Group's portfolio companies.Mark Penn's career spans 40 years in advertising, market research, public relations, polling and consulting.  He has advised top world leaders, led companies, and written two bestselling books.  Currently, Mark serves as President and Managing Partner of private equity The Stagwell Group as well as CEO of the fund's largest investment, MDC Partners.As “The Place Where Great Talent Lives,” MDC Partners is celebrated for its innovative advertising, public relations, branding, digital, social and event marketing agency partners, which are responsible for some of the most memorable and effective campaigns. By leveraging technology, data analytics, insights and strategic consulting solutions, MDC Partners drives creative excellence, business growth and measurable return on marketing investment for over 1,700 clients worldwide. MDC Partners is part of Stagwell Group's strategy to invest in digital marketing services companies.  With over $500 million raised, Stagwell has made over 20 investments in under four years, delivering what investors call, “a superior operating model.”Prior to founding Stagwell, Mark served in senior executive positions at Microsoft. As Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, he was responsible for working on core strategic issues across the company, blending data-analytics

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn is joined by Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill, to discuss the latest Harvard-Harris Poll, fielded June 15-17, 2021 among 2,006 registered voters.Bob Cusack has been reporting on policy and politics in the nation's capital since 1995. He joined The Hill as Business and Lobbying editor in 2003 and became the newspaper's managing editor a year later. He became the editor in chief in 2014. Cusack has won five awards from the National Press Club and the Society of Professional Journalists for investigative articles on a range of issues, including national security, healthcare and 2008 presidential politics surrounding Hurricane Katrina. Cusack regularly appears on MSNBC, Fox, ABC and CNN as a political analyst. Before joining The Hill, Cusack was a chief editor at Inside Washington Publishers. A native of New York City, Cusack received his B.A. in journalism from Loyola College in Maryland. He is a member of the Screen Actors Guild and has appeared in commercials, television shows and feature films.Mark Penn is the President and Managing Partner of The Stagwell Group, a private equity fund focused on the marketing services industry. In this role, Penn directs the acquisition process and oversees the Group's portfolio companies.Mark Penn's career spans 40 years in advertising, market research, public relations, polling and consulting.  He has advised top world leaders, led companies, and written two bestselling books.  Currently, Mark serves as President and Managing Partner of private equity The Stagwell Group as well as CEO of the fund's largest investment, MDC Partners.As “The Place Where Great Talent Lives,” MDC Partners is celebrated for its innovative advertising, public relations, branding, digital, social and event marketing agency partners, which are responsible for some of the most memorable and effective campaigns. By leveraging technology, data analytics, insights and strategic consulting solutions, MDC Partners drives creative excellence, business growth and measurable return on marketing investment for over 1,700 clients worldwide. MDC Partners is part of Stagwell Group's strategy to invest in digital marketing services companies.  With over $500 million raised, Stagwell has made over 20 investments in under four years, delivering what investors call, “a superior operating model.”Prior to founding Stagwell, Mark served in senior executive positions at Microsoft. As Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, he was responsible for working on core strategic issues across the company, blending data-analytics with creativity to help set the company on a new course.Marks's experience in growing, building, and managing agencies is well documented. As the co-founder and CEO of Penn Schoen Berland, a market research firm that he built and sold to communications behemoth WPP, he demonstrated value-creation in a crowded industry, serving clients with innovative techniques from being first with overnight polling to unique ad testing methods used by presidents and major corporations. At WPP, he also became CEO of Burson-Marsteller, and managed the two companies to record profit growth during that period.A globally recognized strategist, Mark has advised corporate and political leaders, both in the United States and internationally. For six years, he served as White House Pollster to President Bill Clinton and was a senior adviser in his 1996 re-election, identifying “Soccer Moms” as the key swing vote needed for victory. The Washington Post wrote that no other pollster had ever become, “So thoroughly integrated into the policymaking operation” of a presidential administration.

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shared his thoughts on the newest Harvard-Harris Poll:"This was a complete shock. In my 40 years of polling, I've never seen anything like this. An overwhelming majority of Americans - 76% - believe that unemployment benefits need to end ... that people are remaining at home and unemployed to collect these continuing stimulus payments."Hear the FULL EPISODE.MORE: http://markpennpolls.comFACEBOOK: MarkPennPollsLINKEDIN: company/mark-penn-polls/TWITTER: @Mark_Penn_Polls

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shared his thoughts on the newest Harvard-Harris Poll:"A warning sign to the Biden Administration is that immigration could soon become the top issue, as concerns over the virus and the economy wane ... and that would not be good for the Democrats."Hear the FULL EPISODE.MORE: http://markpennpolls.comFACEBOOK: MarkPennPollsLINKEDIN: company/mark-penn-polls/TWITTER: @Mark_Penn_Polls

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shared his thoughts on the newest Harvard-Harris Poll: "Joe Biden is now at 57% overall approval. We haven't had a President in this range for quite some time ... clearly a continuation of his honeymoon period." Hear the FULL EPISODE.MORE: http://markpennpolls.comFACEBOOK: MarkPennPollsLINKEDIN: company/mark-penn-polls/TWITTER: @Mark_Penn_Polls

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shared his thoughts on the newest Harvard-Harris Poll: The public is in a better mood. They're saying, "We're coming out of this pandemic. The economy is improving. maybe I'm not sure I want to watch MSNBC and Fox News all day. I want to get out and play a little." Hear the FULL EPISODE.

Presidential Pollster MARK PENN shares insights from the latest Harvard-Harris Poll, fielded May 19-20, 2021 among 1,945 registered voters. Download the FULL REPORT and follow along as you listen. For regular updates and more data, visit MarkPennPolls.com and on social: Twitter @Mark_Penn_Polls - Facebook MarkPennPolls and LinkedIn  Mark-Penn-PollsKEY FINDINGSpg 4 - PLURALITY OF VOTERS SAY THE COUNTRY IS ON THE RIGHT TRACKpg 5 - MORE VOTERS SAY THE ECONOMY IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK THAN ON THE WRONG TRACKpg 6 - VOTERS INCREASINGLY SEE THE STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY AS INCREASINGpg 7 - VOTERS SAY THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION IS QUICKLY IMPROVING; WE’RE NOTING A 10 POINT INCREASE SINCE JANUARYpg 8 - BIDEN’S APPROVAL RATING IS STILL IN HIS POST-ELECTION HONEYMOONpg 9 - VOTERS CREDIT BIDEN IN MANY AREAS, IN PARTICULAR HANDLING COVID-19 AND ADMINISTERING THE GOVERNMENTpg 10 - GOP APPROVAL HAS TICKED UP TO NEARLY 50%pg 11 - DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL REMAINS ABOVE 50%pg 12 - CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL IS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40Spg 13 - CORONAVIRUS REMAINS THE TOP ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY; HEALTHCARE, JOBS AND CYBERSECURITY SAW INCREASES

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares findings from the latest Harvard Harris Poll, conducted within the United States April 27 - April 29 among 1,872 registered voters by The Harris Poll in collaboration with Harvard's Center for American Political Studies. Download: FULL REPORT (pdf)Website: www.MarkPennPolls.comTwitter: @Mark_Penn_PollsFacebook: MarkPennPollsLinkedIn: mark-penn-pollsKEY FINDINGS:PLURALITY OF AMERICAN VOTERS SAY THE COUNTRY IS ON THE ‘RIGHT TRACK’FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK, AMERICANS ARE NOW MORELIKELY TO SAY THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK TOOPERCEIVED STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY IS OVER 50 PERCENT AND CONTINUES TOGROW, ALTHOUGH STILL SHORT OF THE PRE-PANDEMIC TRENDMORE AMERICAN VOTERS SAY THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION IS IMPROVINGVOTERS MORE LIKELY TO CREDIT VACCINE OVER BIDEN POLICIES FOR THE ECONOMIC RECOVERYBIDEN’S IS STILL IN HIS POST-ELECTION HONEYMOONVOTERS CREDIT BIDEN IN MANY AREAS, IN PARTICULAR HANDLING COVID-19 ANDADMINISTERING THE GOVERNMENT; HE IS WEAKEST ON IMMIGRATIONGOP APPROVAL REMAINS STEADY IN THE MID 40SDEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL REMAINS ABOVE 50%CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL IS NOW NEAR THE HALFWAY MARKCORONAVIRUS REMAINS THE TOP ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY, FOLLOWED BYIMMIGRATION AND JOBSBIDEN, HARRIS ARE NET FAVORABLE IN THE EYES OF VOTERSMCCONNELL AND PELOSI ALL SHOW NET UN-FAVORABILITYGOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS (MILITARY, POLICE, CDC, FBI,SCOTUS) TOP LIST OF FAVORABLE INSTITUTIONS

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares insights from a new Harvard-Harris Poll, fielded March 24-25, 2021 among 1,945 registered voters.DOWNLOAD FULL MARCH 26 REPORT AND FOLLOW ALONG AS YOU LISTEN KEY TAKEAWAYS (with page numbers for reference):1 - FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OUR POLL’S HISTORY, MORE VOTERS SAY THE COUNTRY IS ON ‘RIGHT TRACK’ THAN ON THE ‘WRONG TRACK’2- EQUAL NUMBERS OF VOTERS SAY THE ECONOMY IS ON RIGHT TRACK AS ON THE WRONG TRACK3 - THE PERCEIVED STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY IS STEADILY IMPROVING, BUT OVERALL VOTERS REMAIN SPLIT WHETHER WE ARE IN STRONG OR WEAK ECONOMY4 - VIEWS OF PERSONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS AFTER A THIRD STIMULUS ROUND5 - BIDEN’S APPROVAL RATING IS STILL IN HIS POST-ELECTION HONEYMOON6 - VOTERS CREDIT BIDEN IN MANY AREAS, IN PARTICULAR HANDLING COVID-19 ANDADMINISTERING THE GOVERNMENT7 - GOP APPROVAL REMAINS IN THE MID 40S8 - DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL REMAINS ABOVE 50%9 - CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL IS NOW NEAR THE HALFWAY MARK10 - CORONAVIRUS REMAINS THE TOP ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY; IMMIGRATION AND GUNS SAW STRING MONTH OVER MONTH INCREASESFor more detailed analysis, visit www.MARKPENNPOLLS.comTWITTER: @Mark_Penn_PollsFACEBOOK: MarkPennPollsLINKEDIN: Mark_Penn_Polls

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares findings from the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, surveying 1,778 registered voters from February 23 - February 25.. The poll is conducted by the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard and The Harris Poll. For regular updates and to learn more about poll results and coverage, visit MarkPennPolls.com.Download the report - HarvardHarrisPoll.com - and follow Mark Penn on:TWITTERFACEBOOKLINKEDIN

Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares findings from the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, surveying 2,006 registered voters from January 12 to January 14. The poll is conducted by the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard and The Harris Poll. For regular updates and to learn more about poll results and coverage, visit MarkPennPolls.com. Download the report from HarvardHarrisPoll.com and follow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter.

Presidential Pollster shares insights from the the first post-election survey conducted by Harvard CAPS/ Harris Poll, fielded Nov. 17-19 among 2,205 registered voters.DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT AND FOLLOW ALONG AS YOU LISTENA solid majority of the country — 65 percent — believes Joe Biden won the election. They also believe the election overall was fair and the counting of the ballots was fair. Today, fifty-eight percent of voters want president Trump to concede the election to president-elect Joe Biden.But the public would like to see election reforms going forward. Only 29 percent want another election run like this one, and a third of the country still believes that the election was stolen with as many as 40 to 45 percent that there were some irregularities such as ballot harvesting. Voters would like much tighter procedures on mail-in ballots, and to have ballots tabulated within three days of the election; they oppose allowing open-ended periods for mailed ballots to arriveThe post-election poll also sends some clear political messages: the biggest issue was, unsurprisingly, the coronavirus. Coronavirus fears trumped the economy, and ultimately President Trump. Biden overwhelmingly won over the voters most concerned with the virus, which suggests that, on Day 1, the new president should focus entirely on the measures that will bring it to an end — organizing a strong task force, getting economic stimulus done if this Congress fails to act, and distributing vaccines. Forty percent of those polled said the first thing they want Biden to do is to pass economic stimulus, and 33 percent said to get the vaccine out. Nothing else reached double-digits as a concern.At the same time, continued economic improvement and the announcement of a vaccine sent Trump’s approval rating over 50 percent for the first time in years of polling. Despite the rising coronavirus cases fifty-four percent of voters today say they want their states to try to manage the situation while remaining open, indicating both Covid fatigue and an economic need to move on. Republicans in Congress did better because House speaker Pelosi held up the much-wanted stimulus bill rather than accept a $1.8 trillion compromise and because House and Senate Republicans were not associated with the president’s weak virus strategy. Therefore, it’s no surprise, then, that a majority of voters say they want Republicans to remain in control of the Senate in the new year after the Georgia runoff races.The political tension between managing the virus and the economy is likely to continue well into the new administration, and we will continue to track the sentiments of voters as well. As always feel free to email me with questions as you work through the findings, and I invite you to read my commentary for the Hill.My podcast on the polls can be followed at www.MARKPENNPOLLS.com (full episode) or any of the following channels:

Download the full report at HarvardHarrisPoll.comFollow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter.Follow MarkPennPolls on FacebookThere is no question that Donald Trump has an enthusiastic base of supporters willing to risk the cold, the rain and even the coronavirus to cheer their president. But that base, in the low 40s, is falling just short — even in key swing states — to give the president enough votes to win reelection. Starting about a year ago, he needed to have cultivated a new group of swing voters but instead doubled down on his base, so his only lifelines now are so-called “shy Trump voters” and a massive Election Day turnout of his fans.If you are Joe Biden, you are trying to get as many mail-in votes as you can, run tens of millions of dollars in ads, and run out the clock before there is a vaccine and big jobs numbers that are likely coming our way after Thursday’s big jump in Gross Domestic Product. This unconventional strategy has been working to keep the election a referendum on Trump — a referendum that Trump cannot win, with the virus raging and the deep-set perception he is just too divisive. Of course, it’s all with a little help from the media, as two-thirds of Americans see the media as hard on Donald Trump and two-thirds see the media as going easy on Joe Biden.Trump was right to fear mail-in voting, as it appears that Democrats have a well-tuned effort to get their votes in early, and the polls show that the mail vote overwhelmingly favors Biden. It wasn’t about fraud; it was about making it easier for those already part of the political system to cast their votes no matter how busy. There is a reason — political interest — that Democrats are trying to push back every deadline for the receipt of mail votes and Republicans are insisting upon the letter of the law. Trump told his voters not to trust the mail — and so he needs some great weather and a finely tuned organization to get his voters to the polls, to make up for that massive tactical error.Our Florida poll has Trump down 3 points, but the internals of the poll look somewhat more favorable to him than the top-line result. The state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, has a 53 percent approval rating and Trump’s approval there is 49 percent, 3 points ahead of his national average. He is getting 43 percent of the Latino vote and has a lead of 9 points over Biden on the economy. His biggest problem is a 10-point deficit on the virus but, surprisingly, that deficit is more among younger than older voters. Obviously, the night is over if he does not win Florida — but I would give a better-than-even chance he pulls this one off.In North Carolina, where he is down by 1, Trump is winning the white vote by 60 to 38 but getting only 6 percent of the Black vote there. He is polling ahead 1 point of Republican Sen. Tom Tillis and has 48 percent job approval. North Carolina had a big cultural disconnect with Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Biden is better received there than she was, with a 50 percent favorable rating compared to 46 percent for the president. Trump does have strong support on the economy there and receives 45 percent approval on the virus, compared to his national average of 41 percent. Trump would need to expand his Black vote to at least 12 percent to put him barely over the top in this hotly contested state.

The SCOTUS Factor (September 28, 2020)How will President Trump's nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barret to fill the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's vacancy and speed with which Republicans in Congress are moving forward with her confirmation factor in the Election?Download the full report at HarvardHarrisPoll.comFollow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter.The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is a monthly poll released by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights and Analytics.The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is conducted by The Harris Poll online within the United States every monthly and captures the responses of over 2,000 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.The Co-Directors of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll are:Stephen D. Ansolabehere – Professor of Government & Director, Center for American Political Studies, Harvard UniversityMark J. Penn – Visiting Lecturer, Harvard University & Managing Partner, The Stagwell GroupDritan Nesho – Fellow, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science & CEO of HarrisX Together with their students and faculty from the Harvard University community.

@Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter@Mark_Penn_Polls on FacebookHarvardHarrisPoll.com to DownloadEach month, presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares his analysis of the newest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. Fielded August 28-30, this month's poll surveyed 1,604 registered voters on their preference in the 2020 election, Trump's job approval numbers, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the general mood of the country, police reform, Congress's approval numbers, the 2020 election, general outlook on the economy, mail-in voting in November, policing and race, the role of social media platforms, US-China relations and much more. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.Sign up to receive monthly polls - harvardharrispoll.comYou can follow the podcast on: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.