Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump and debate the Fed's current policy paralysis amid uncertainty about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Key Takeaways Middle East Tensions and Market Response: The U.S. recently attacked suspected nuclear sites in Iran, and despite immediate fears, the S&P 500 rallied over 1%, and oil prices sharply reversed after an initial spike—down nearly 14% in one day, one of the largest reversals in history.Geopolitical Patterns and Historical Context: The hosts point out historical examples, such as World War I and the Iraq War, where war-driven fiscal spending and deficit growth actually boosted stock markets significantly. Economic and Fiscal Implications of Conflict: Wars often lead to increased defense and deficit spending, which, despite negative human impacts, can boost corporate profits and stock markets, as seen historically (e.g., Iraq War 2003).President Trump's Criticism of Jerome Powell and Fed Policy: President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling Powell a "numbskull" and suggesting lower rates would save trillions for the U.S.Fed's Policy Paralysis Amid Uncertainty: The Fed faces conflicting economic signals: higher projected inflation (due partly to tariffs), rising unemployment, and slowing growth, resulting in policy paralysis. Sonu criticized Powell's comments claiming labor market strength, pointing to rising unemployment claims and slowing payrolls as clear signs of labor market weakness.Odds of Fed Rate Cuts Increasing: Market-implied probabilities show a significant rise in expectations for a rate cut by September 2025, largely driven by recent sharp declines in oil prices.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #MiddleEastTensions #StockMarketReaction #IranConflict #FiscalSpending #JeromePowell #FedPolicy #TrumpVsPowell #InterestRates #EconomicUncertainty #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by financial journalist and TKer founder and editor Sam Ro. Together, they cover Sam's background, his curated newsletter approach, emerging data-quality issues at the BLS, and why human judgment still matters in the age of AI.Key TakeawaysWhat Sam Ro Actually Does All Day Sam is the founder and editor of TKer (pronounced ticker), a daily financial newsletter. He previously led markets coverage at Business Insider and was managing editor at Yahoo Finance. His role now is synthesizing market data and macro trends into clear, actionable insights for readers — many of whom are financial advisors.The Market Goes Up—Until It Doesn't Sam chose the slogan “The stock market usually goes up” for his newsletter because, well, the market usually goes up. But, as Sam cautions, it's important for investors to be prepared for downturns, or they can get badly dinged in the short term.Parsing the Data The group discusses a recent announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about collecting less data than before, and how budget cuts and staffing issues at the bureau could lead to less accurate data collection in economic surveys like CPI and employment reports.More Than Just Statistics Sam, who majored in religion in college, discusses the notion that data only goes so far in predicting the markets. Models can't predict everything, and sometimes you just need to embrace uncertainty and have a bit of faith that the markets will sort themselves out over time.AI Can't Replace Human JudgmentWhile AI chatbots now summarize reports faster—and sometimes more eloquently—than humans, Sam stresses that interpreting nuance and making editorial decisions remain human domains. Connect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Sam:·      https://www.tker.co/·      X: @SamRo ·      LinkedIn: sammyroQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #SamRo #TickerNewsletter #MarketFlows #StockMarket #InvestorDiscipline #FinancialMedia #Macroeconomics #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior.But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data says about inflation, the labor market, and Federal Reserve policy, while stressing the importance of not overreacting to headlines.Key TakeawaysTheater Meets Market Implications The Trump-Musk spat included insults, accusations, and the threat of government contract cancellations. Ryan and Sonu dig into how this narrative dominated headlines and its potential impact on investor sentiment.Markets Rally Despite the Drama Despite political noise, equity markets have remained resilient. The S&P 500 has posted strong returns since April lows, reflecting underlying market strength.Economic Data Is Mixed, Not Recessionary While headlines emphasize slowing job growth and sticky inflation, Ryan and Sonu stress that the broader picture doesn't scream recession. Job openings remain high, unemployment is low, and wages continue to rise.Fed Remains Cautious While job growth is slowing and inflation still sticky, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates paused for the foreseeable future—though a drop in inflation could trigger a reexamination.Watch Market Breadth and Participation Rather than obsess over megacap tech stocks, the hosts urge listeners to track participation across sectors and in global markets. Broader market strength is a bullish sign that shouldn't be ignored. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #LaborMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #FinancialPlanning #WageGrowth #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #StockMarket #MacroTrends 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market's surface.Key TakeawaysMarkets Continue to Surprise on the Upside After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.Tariff Drama ContinuesA court ruling struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that's bolstered many investors.Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.No Sign of a Recession With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven't caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines.Broadcasting from Carson's 2025 Spring Partner Summit in Omaha, this conversation blends covers everything from Tesla and Palantir to Microsoft's AI momentum and more.Key TakeawaysTesla Is Not Just a Car Company: Dan emphasized that Tesla should be valued as a disruptive AI and robotics company, not merely an automaker. Autonomous robotics are seen as a core driver of its future valuation.AI Party Is Just Getting Started: We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution—around “10:30 p.m.” on an all-night timeline, according to Dan. He likens skeptics to party-poopers who will wish they had joined once the sun comes up.China Cannot Be Decoupled: Efforts to cut ties with China in tech manufacturing are unrealistic, says Dan. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese infrastructure, and disrupting this would have broad economic consequences.Apple as the AI Highway: While Apple may have lagged in AI innovation early on, Dan believes it will become the dominant platform for consumer AI applications thanks to its vast device ecosystem and installed base.Microsoft's Untapped AI Monetization: Despite a recent lull in stock performance, Dan sees Microsoft as massively underappreciated in its AI capabilities, especially within its enterprise customer base.Google (Alphabet) Is Underloved: Alphabet is currently the most underestimated of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, particularly due to overstated concerns about search being disrupted by AI.Palantir's Long-Term Role: Dan projects Palantir as a trillion-dollar company in the making, thanks to its growing role in enterprise and sovereign AI applications.AI Stocks Beyond the Headlines: Emerging names like Pegasystems, SoundHound, Veronis, and CyberArk are cited as under-the-radar plays in the AI boom, especially in areas like cybersecurity and data infrastructure.Autonomous + Robotics = Game Changer: Dan envisions a near-future where humanoid robots under $20,000 become household norms—transforming labor, transportation, and daily life.Bitcoin's Role in Tech: Bitcoin's institutional adoption is growing, and Dan sees it as a risk-on asset with increasing relevance, especially in a deregulated environment. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Dan:• LinkedIn: Daniel Ives• X: @DivesTech Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #DanIves #AIRevolution #TeslaAI #MicrosoftAI #TechInvesting #AutonomousFuture #InnovationEconomy #NVIDIA #Palantir #CryptoAndTech #ChinaUSRelations #BigTech #FutureOfWork #CarsonPartners #FinancialPodcast 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.Key Takeaways:PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation: CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.Macro Noise & Recession Probability: Macroeconomic forecasting in today's environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.Economic Resilience Remains Strong: Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth: Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable: Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.Why Lower Oil Prices Haven't Translated to Relief at the Pump Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven't followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Skanda:• X: @IrvingSwisher Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath

In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors.After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally be prevailing. From trade negotiations to market breadth thrust indicators, and even a glimpse into the Fed's next move—the guys cover it all.Key Takeaways:Tariff Ceasefire with China: A surprise agreement between the U.S. and China rolls back reciprocal tariffs to 10%, averting the feared trade war escalation—though another 20% tariff still remains. The market reacted with a strong rally, showing signs of confidence.Trade Talks Reset, Not a Resolution: Though framed as a deal by the U.S., China calls it an “economic and trade consultation mechanism.” The agreement includes a 90-day pause and commitments to future negotiations. Non-tariff measures like export restrictions are also being lifted.Market Reaction Shows Strength: The Dow surged more than 1,000 points, and market internals and technicals suggest bullish momentum and historical patterns point to strong returns ahead.Bull Market Signals Everywhere: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have officially entered new bull markets. Patterns like strong monthly returns and recoveries from steep drawdowns historically signal higher markets in the months to come.Fed Rate Cuts Delayed by Tariff Uncertainty: Despite soft April CPI data and signs that inflation is under control, the Fed remains cautious. Rate cuts that once seemed likely in June or July may now be pushed to September or later.U.S. Recession Risk Declining Again: After a temporary spike in recession probability post-Liberation Day, analysts are walking those forecasts back as data stabilizes and trade tensions ease.Long-Term Strategy Over Headlines: Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of staying invested through volatility. Market history shows the best days often come right after the worst—don't miss them by panic selling. Connect with Ryan: ·       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick·       X: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: ·       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese·       X: Sonu Varghese #FactsVsFeelings #MarketUpdate #TradeWar #Tariffs #ChinaUSRelations #StockMarket #BullMarket #Recession #Inflation #FederalReserve #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentStrategy #Economy #SP500 #MarketInsights #SonuVarghese #RyanDetrick

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett's retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed's next move, and more.Key Takeaways:GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett's remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he'd be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.Fed Uncertainty: Though it's still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty. Connect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvargheQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  #FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market's strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market.The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and the broader economic implications of continued trade tensions with China. Plus, a golden discussion — literally — about gold's recent surge and what it might mean for investors.Key Takeaways:Markets vs. TariffsPolicy SensitivityMarket Breadth & TechnicalsNear Bear MarketsTrade Impact LagFed & Policy OutlookEarnings ExpectationsSentiment ExtremesGold SurgeConnect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#StockMarket #Tariffs #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #S&P500 #Gold #MarketRally #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest to unpack the state of innovation in finance, the market's reaction to tariffs, and the evolving role of AI, Bitcoin, and government in shaping the future economy.Together, they explore whether we are entering a recession or exiting one, and how long-term investors can cut through short-term volatility. Cathie also shares her thoughts on manufacturing reshoring, AI's role in diagnostics and automation, OpenAI's dominance, and why Bitcoin might just be getting started. Key Takeaways:Market headwinds are turning into tailwindsRisk of a recession is on the riseTariff chaos could be offset some by tax cuts and deregulationAI will catalyze every sectorBitcoin and gold can be hedges against market volatility, but there's still uncertaintyManufacturing is coming back to the U.S., but with more automationThe government's role in innovation is evolving as the private sector progressesConnect with Cathie:•       X: @cathiedwoodConnect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvarghe Relevant Hashtags:#CathieWood #ARKInvest #Bitcoin #AI #Tariffs #Innovation #StockMarket #Recession #FactsVsFeelings #TechnologyInvesting #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #OpenAI #Automation #EconomicOutlook #RollingRecession #Reshoring #DigitalAssets #Investing

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the ripple effects of tariffs, high interest rates, and a wavering investment environment on the U.S. and global economies.With companies freezing investment plans and government spending cooling off, the duo explores how the consumer remains the last line of economic defense—so long as the labor market holds. They also explore why the Fed might be making a mistake by keeping rates elevated, the possibility of a white-flag moment from President Trump, and how diversification remains the smartest play during times of uncertainty.Key TakeawaysTariffs Are Already Reshaping Corporate Behavior GDP Growth is Vulnerable Labor Market is the Tipping Point Fed Policy May Be Too Tight for Too Long The Market's Bull Case? Trump Waves the White Flag Next Week's Guest: Cathie Wood Our next episode will feature Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, as we'll dive into tech and recession perspectives.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseMusic Credit: Ryan the Savior of Stocks – by Jake Guttman (This song was created using A.I.) https://suno.com/song/c11f8ece-b4b8-45f0-b6e6-ae0e761708b7Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #Markets #Tariffs #FedPolicy #GDP #LaborMarket #Investing #Diversification #InterestRates #TrumpEconomy #CathieWood #EconomicOutlook #ConsumerSpending

In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the immediate fallout of last week's tariffs announcement and how it could impact both the U.S. and the global economy. They dive into the plunging markets, how a trade war could trigger a recession, the long-term impact of tariffs, and much more.Key TakeawaysMarket Impact: The immediate aftermath in the markets after tariffs went into effect wasn't pretty, with the Dow dropping more than 10% in two days. When could we expect some relief?Inflation Returns: Tariffs are likely to raise prices for most goods, and rising inflation could affect when and whether the Fed makes rate cuts this year.Recession Odds: With the markets in bear market territory, what's the likelihood of these tariffs triggering a recession?Delayed Impact: Manufacturing and labor market numbers in upcoming months may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs.Time to Diversify: Volatility in the stock market just further emphasizes the need for investors to have a diverse portfolio.Connect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvargheseHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Tariffs #LiverationDay #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket #Recession

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Jess Menton, Senior Reporter at Bloomberg News, and Kate Hall, VP, Alternative Due Diligence, at Carson Group. The conversation explores career growth, industry challenges, and what the future holds for female leaders in financial services.Key Takeaways:The importance of representation: Women in leadership serve as role models, paving the way for future generations.Overcoming industry challenges: Jess and Kate share personal experiences navigating male-dominated spaces in finance.The power of mentorship: The guests discuss how building strong networks and mentorship opportunities are key to helping advance women in the industry.Market insights: The panel discusses economic trends, investing strategies, and the current state of the markets.Advice for the next generation: The group talks about how to encourage young women considering careers in finance and how the industry can better support them.This is more than just a market discussion—it's about leadership, resilience, and the future of finance.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Jess Menton:LinkedIn: Jessica MentonX: @JessicaMentonConnect with Kate Hall:LinkedIn: Kate K. HallHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Turkey #InterestRates #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist at Clearonomics, and Debbie Taylor, Managing Partner and Chief Tax Strategist at Carson Wealth, for a special Women's History Month Livestream. Together, they discuss their careers, recent market trends, and how investors can navigate today's economic landscape.Key Takeaways:Market Insights & Volatility – Are recent corrections normal? We take a look at the stock market's history following recent corrections. The Role of Women in Finance – Lindsey and Debbie share their career journeys, the challenges they faced along the way, and lessons from their time in the financial industry. Tax Strategies & Planning – Debbie discusses tax efficiency, investment strategies, and financial planning for long-term success. Economic Trends & Consumer Behavior – What do earnings growth, job markets, and tariffs mean for investors?Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Lindsey:LinkedIn: Lindsey BellX: @justLBellConnect with Debbie:LinkedIn: Debbie TaylorQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the recent market correction, what history tells us about recoveries, and whether investors should be concerned. Plus, they discuss sentiment shifts, the strength of international markets, and what they see next for stocks.Key Takeaways:Understanding Market Corrections: The S&P 500 fell 10% in just 16 trading days — historically, corrections like this happen about once a year.What Happens Next? History suggests strong rebounds after quick corrections, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 7.5% in three months and 15% in six months following similar drops.It's Not All Bad: While the S&P 500 dipped, international markets like Germany, Japan, and Europe have remained resilient, showing the importance of diversification.Investor Sentiment is Shifting: Bearish sentiment is at its highest level since March 2009, often a contrarian buy signal.The Fed and Inflation Concerns: Inflation expectations have risen, but real inflation remains under control. The Fed's next moves will be crucial.Diversification Wins: Bonds, gold, and low-volatility stocks have held up well, reinforcing the need for a balanced portfolio.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In this week's episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist are joined by Warren Pies, Co-Founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss market trends, recession risks, Fed policy, and, of course, some fun Pi Day and St. Patrick's Day talk. They dive into economic growth concerns, interest rates, inflation, and why a growth scare doesn't necessarily mean a recession is coming.Key Takeaways:Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there's no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong.The Fed's Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth.Government Spending & Deficits: Large fiscal deficits have been a cushion for the economy, but potential cuts could introduce new risks.Energy Market Insights: Oil prices are trending lower, which is good for inflation and Fed policy, but may present challenges for energy companies.Market Volatility & Rate Cuts: The Fed's reluctance to ease policy is contributing to a growth scare, but this may just be a temporary market correction.Housing & Economic Signals: While mortgage rates remain high, housing market fundamentals aren't signaling an imminent downturn.Pi Day & St. Patrick's Day Fun: We discuss Chicago's green river tradition, our favorite pies, and how Warren's firm got its name.Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Join us for a special Women's History Month edition of Facts vs Feelings, featuring top women leaders in finance discussing markets, investing, and industry insights. Register now: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7303883891440762880Connect with Warren: Website: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437/Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese#StockMarket #Investing #InterestRates #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #EnergyMarkets #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup #PiDay #StPatricksDay

Facts vs. Feelings Podcast | Episode 125 | Growth ScareIn the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the "growth scare" and discuss whether the bull market still has room to run.Key Takeaways:Market Volatility & Growth Concerns: Stocks have pulled back due to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, but history shows that early-year volatility in a post-election cycle is normal.Tariffs & Economic Impact: Tariffs are sparking concerns, but the lack of a dollar surge suggests it may not spiral into a full trade war.Stock Market Resilience: While tech has struggled, financials, real estate, and consumer staples have shown strong performance, proving the market can broaden out beyond large-cap tech.Fed & Interest Rates: Despite inflation fears, rate cuts remain on the table for later this year, potentially providing a tailwind for stocks.Seasonal Trends & Historical Context: The first quarter of post-election years tends to be choppy, but historical data suggests a stronger market performance in the coming months.Consumer Spending & Economic Data: A sharp drop in GDP expectations is mostly driven by a trade imbalance and tariff front-loading, rather than an actual economic collapse.What's your take on the markets? Drop us a message and let us know! Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comConnect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the "growth scare" and discuss whether the bull market still has room to run.Key Takeaways:Market Volatility & Growth Concerns: Stocks have pulled back due to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, but history shows that early-year volatility in a post-election cycle is normal.Tariffs & Economic Impact: Tariffs are sparking concerns, but the lack of a dollar surge suggests it may not spiral into a full trade war.Stock Market Resilience: While tech has struggled, financials, real estate, and consumer staples have shown strong performance, proving the market can broaden out beyond large-cap tech.Fed & Interest Rates: Despite inflation fears, rate cuts remain on the table for later this year, potentially providing a tailwind for stocks.Seasonal Trends & Historical Context: The first quarter of post-election years tends to be choppy, but historical data suggests a stronger market performance in the coming months.Consumer Spending & Economic Data: A sharp drop in GDP expectations is mostly driven by a trade imbalance and tariff front-loading, rather than an actual economic collapse.What's your take on the markets? Drop a comment below and let us know! Don't forget to like, subscribe, and share for weekly market insights!Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese#StockMarket #Investing #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #BullMarket #FederalReserve #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

Summary:In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market trends, inflation data, and what's driving stocks to all-time highs despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and other economic uncertainty.Key Takeaways:Markets at All-Time Highs: Despite concerns about tariffs, inflation, and the Fed, stocks are still hitting record levels, driven by strong earnings and expanding profit margins.Rate Cuts Still on the Table: Recent inflation data supports the case for potential Fed rate cuts in 2025, but timing remains uncertain.Earnings Strength: S&P 500 earnings are up nearly 17% YoY, with eight of 11 sectors improving profit margins—an encouraging sign for investors.Tariffs Delayed: Proposed trade tariffs have been delayed, possibly until August, easing immediate market fears.Market Breadth Expanding: More sectors are driving growth beyond just large-cap tech, making the rally more sustainable.Inflation Trends: CPI came in hot, but PPI showed signs of easing price pressures, hinting at continued disinflation.Momentum Matters: Historically, strong market performance in January and February—like we've seen to start 2025—leads to continued gains for the rest of the year.Consumer Resilience: While retail sales dipped unexpectedly, seasonal factors and extreme weather likely played a role, rather than fundamental economic weakness.Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comConnect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese#StockMarket #Investing #AllTimeHighs #Inflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #InterestRates #Earnings #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

Summary:In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more!Key Takeaways:The S&P 500 is near an all-time high despite economic concerns.Inflation remains a hot topic, with rising egg prices making headlines.Momentum is driving market performance, with all 11 S&P sectors in positive territory.Housing, auto insurance, and used cars are the primary contributors to inflation stickiness.The Fed remains in a cutting bias, but rate cuts may not happen until midyear.Trade and tariff policies have the potential for long-term market impacts.The possibility of a government shutdown is looming, adding another layer of uncertainty.Retail sales took a surprising hit, but that may be due to recent extreme weather and seasonality.Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comConnect with Ryan:LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu:LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseRelevant Hashtags:#StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #Eggflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #PersonalFinance #CarsonGroup

Summary: In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.Key Takeaways:·       Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.·       Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.·       Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.·       Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.·       Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.·       Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.·     Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  Connect with Ryan:  ·    LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick·     X: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu:  ·    LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese·      X: Sonu Varghese Relevant Hashtags: #StockMarket #Investing #Economy #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Finance #MarketTrends #WealthManagement #Trading #EconomicOutlook

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group,  dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed's stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could shape 2025. Plus, they discuss the January market rally, historical trends for February, and why volatility is a necessary part of investing.Ryan and Sonu discuss:Tariffs create uncertainty, but history shows markets adapt.The Fed's rate cut timeline may be delayed due to inflation concerns.Fiscal policy could offset the impact of tariffs, especially with potential tax cuts.Despite uncertainty, broadening market trends and strong corporate earnings remain positive.February has historically been weak post-election, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.Resources: ●         Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  Connect with Ryan Detrick:  ●         LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick●         X: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu Varghese:  ●         LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese●         X: Sonu Varghese Publishing Tags: #FinancialMarkets #Investing #StockMarket #Economy #Tariffs #TradeWar #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #GlobalEconomy #StockMarketAnalysis #EconomicPolicy #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #InvestorEducation #MarketVolatility #Trading #WealthManagement #FinancePodcast

Artificial Intelligence is reshaping industries and global competition, and understanding its market impact is critical.How do advancements like DeepSeek's AI change the game? What does it mean for the global economy, technology stocks, and U.S.-China relations?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the transformative impact of AI, the economic trends shaping 2024, and the importance of diversification in portfolios. They also discuss the implications of AI for productivity, technology sector competition, and global markets.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The emergence of DeepSeek, a cost-effective and open-source AI competitor, and its implications for the AI marketU.S. and Chinese competition in technology innovation and the broader economic significance of AI advancementsThe impact of AI cost reductions on accessibility, productivity, and business adoption across sectorsRecent market trends, including the role of technology stocks, mid-cap performances, and financial sector growthThe broader economic outlook, emphasizing the benefits of AI-driven cost efficiencies for the economy and the importance of maintaining diversified investment strategiesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

The investing world is buzzing as markets rally, inflation softens, and a familiar political figure makes headlines.How do these factors shape the current economic picture? What are the implications for portfolios and policies in the months ahead?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the surprising strength of markets, the potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar, and the outlook for inflation in 2025. They highlight key data and trends that show resilience and opportunities in the economy despite widespread skepticism.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The recent broad market strength, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, and the implications of improved market breadthWhy inflation metrics, especially core CPI, show improvement and the role of lagging indicators like shelter costs and motor vehicle insuranceThe influence of tariffs and a strengthening dollar on U.S. manufacturers, earnings, and inflation expectationsResilience in the labor market, including trends in part-time workers and construction jobs, suggesting economic stabilizationPolicy uncertainties, including President Trump's potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico and their possible effects on global trade and marketsAnd more!Resources:Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com ROMA CollectiblesConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

How do market strategies evolve amidst economic shifts, policy adjustments, and investor behavior? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2025 outlook. They delve into economic growth, earnings, policy impacts, and the potential paths for stocks and bonds.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Predictions for stocks growing 12-15% and bonds by 4-7%, with a focus on equitiesObservations on U.S. economic resilience driven by consumer balance sheets and productivityPotential risks from interest rates, housing market stagnation, and a strong dollar's effects on exports and earningsAnticipated Fed rate cuts and inflation trends tied to real estate and wage growthStrategies emphasizing diversified investments, including opportunities in underperforming mid-cap and small-cap sectorsAnd more!Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

How do market strategists assess their predictions and refine their strategies for the future?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on 2024's market outcomes. They explore what they anticipated correctly, where they misjudged, and how these insights shape their 2025 outlook.They also highlight the key drivers behind market performance, emphasizing transparency and adaptability in strategy.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The impact of a Santa Claus rally that failed to materialize and its implications for short-term market sentimentThe contributions of earnings growth, dividends, and multiple expansion to the S&P 500's 25% total return in 2024Their successful forecast of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their influence on economic stabilityThe underperformance of small and mid-cap stocks despite positive expectations and the need to adapt to market shiftsThe strong performance of U.S. equities over international stocks, driven by relative economic strength and a resilient dollarAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

How can advisors truly thrive in their personal and professional lives? Dr. Phil Pearlman brings a refreshing perspective, blending psychology, health, and financial strategy to empower advisors to achieve peak performance.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. Phil Pearlman, Founder of the Pearl Institute, to explore actionable strategies for enhancing well-being, overcoming modern challenges, and optimizing decision-making. Dr. Pearlman shares insights on building healthier habits, combating distractions, and fostering meaningful connections in an ever-demanding profession.Dr. Pearlman discusses:How to tackle phone addiction and reclaim time for personal growth and relationshipsSimple steps advisors can take to improve health and performance, including dietary and physical activity tipsStrategies for setting and maintaining achievable goals for long-term successThe importance of focusing on individual progress over external comparisons to combat FOMO and enhance satisfactionInsights on leveraging psychological flexibility to quit bad habits and make more effective decisionsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Dr. Phil Pearlman: Email: ppearlman@gmail.com LinkedIn: Philip PearlmanX: @ppearlmanWebsite: Dr. Phil PearlmanWebsite: Pearl InstituteConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Phil launched Pearl Institute to help people live healthier, perform better, and make wise decisions. Previously, he spent years serving as an executive in both finance and media. Phil lives with his wife and two boys in Montebello, New York.

The market is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty, but key insights from this latest discussion will shed light on what's driving sentiment and expectations.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the recent Fed meeting, market reactions, and what's coming for 2025. They explore the context of inflation fears, shifts in economic projections, and the broader implications of monetary policy, offering perspectives on why a recession might not be imminent despite challenges.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The Federal Reserve's hawkish shift and its impact on market sentiment, including fears of prolonged rate cuts and inflation risksHistorical market trends, including the significance of the Santa Claus rally and potential warning signs for the coming yearHow inflation metrics like shelter and financial services charges influence overall inflation perceptions and the Fed's responseStrong economic indicators such as income growth outpacing inflation and their role in sustaining consumer spending and economic resilienceThe political and economic uncertainties shaping 2025, including rate cuts, tax policies, and market growth potentialAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Inflation concerns are widespread, but are they justified? Economic trends suggest that the narrative of persistently high inflation may be overblown.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the nuances of current inflation data and its implications for investors and the broader economy. They discuss why inflation is less of a concern than widely believed, explore consumer strength, and offer insights into the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.Ryan and Sonu talk about:The recent market trends, including stock movements, Santa Claus rallies, and why market sentiment remains resilient despite fluctuationsThe misconceptions surrounding "sticky" inflation, emphasizing the lagging impact of shelter and auto insurance dataThe Federal Reserve's policy decisions, including upcoming rate cuts and their implications for the marketThe resilience of the U.S. consumer, supported by strong balance sheets, rising disposable income, and robust retail sales growthChina's economic shifts, including its dominance in automobile manufacturing and its global impact on manufacturing trends and oil demandAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Market sentiment is shifting, and the conversation is abuzz with optimism.What drives these changes, and how should investors prepare for potential volatility ahead?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, unveil the surprising rally in the market, factors influencing the shift in sentiment, and the prospects for the coming year. They explore trends in employment, the economy, and the impact of monetary policy changes on investors' strategies.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The market's transition from bearish to bullish sentiment after consecutive strong years of returns, emphasizing shifting sentiment among prominent analystsThe labor market's mixed signals, including steady job creation, rising unemployment rates, and slowing hiring trendsPotential implications of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the broader economic impact, including risks of prolonged pauses in cutsThe resurgence of small-cap stocks and their potential to outperform amid favorable economic growth expectationsGlobal economic risks, including political instability in key regions and their potential impact on the U.S. dollar and broader markets.And more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Are today's markets walking a tightrope? Balancing optimism with caution, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are once again joined by Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, to tackle three key market concerns in this thought-provoking episode of Facts vs. Feelings. They examine the complexities of policy risks, tariffs, and valuations, offering insights to help investors navigate today's market uncertainties.This conversation delivers actionable strategies to help you manage uncertainty, stay diversified, and make sense of today's market challenges. Whether navigating fiscal and monetary policy decisions, understanding global trends, or debating valuations, this conversation has something for every investor.Key Highlights:Policy Risks: Federal Reserve rate decisions remain a wildcard, potentially impacting housing, business investments, and broader economic growthTrade and Tariffs: Tariff rhetoric and policy shifts could nudge inflation and alter market sentiment—but are they long-term threats or one-time adjustmentsStock Valuations: U.S. markets continue trading at high valuations (e.g., 22x forward PE), raising questions about sustainability and investor sentimentGlobal Perspectives: Growth stories in India and Japan contrast with U.S. workforce trends, offering a broader view of opportunities and challengesWhy It Matters: Understanding these risks could help investors stay grounded and focused on long-term goals despite short-term noiseAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Reasons to Be Thankful (Ep. 111) Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Barry Gilbert: LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFACarson Wealth

Surprising economic growth, falling inflation, and financial wins—what's not to be thankful for?On this gratitude-filled episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on the moments, milestones, and market trends that make this year one to celebrate. Guest Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, joins to spotlight the U.S. economy's surprising resilience.This release explores the drivers of today's strong markets and their year-end outlook, from economic growth and moderating inflation to personal triumphs and professional gratitude. The hosts also share practical strategies for staying diversified and grounded in fundamentals while embracing gratitude as a mindset for success.Key Highlights:Economic Resilience: GDP growth outpaces expectations at 2.8–2.9%, driven by productivity gains and entrepreneurshipInflation Trends: Thanksgiving dinner costs drop 5% year-over-year, reflecting gradual inflation moderationStock Market Rally: The S&P 500 gains ~20% for the second year, with financials leading sector growthYear-End Momentum: December's historical strength and profit margins show continued market optimismInvestment Insights: Diversify portfolios and focus on earnings fundamentals to prepare for long-term growthAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Barry Gilbert: LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFACarson Wealth

With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings?This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy and markets.Ryan and Sonu examine how these trends reshape investment opportunities, from skyrocketing mortgage rates—eroding housing affordability—to sector rotations in the S&P 500. They reveal why inflation might be cooling faster than official data suggests, the surprising resilience of consumer strength, and whether the Fed's cautious “wait-and-see” approach hints at a future policy shift.Tune in as the duo also explores market dynamics, uncovers the lessons of the 1995 Greenspan era, and discusses how high productivity could provide a unique opportunity for rate cuts without economic stagnation! Key Highlights:Interest Rate Dynamics: Higher mortgage rates (7–8%) squeeze affordability, but construction jobs remain surprisingly steadySector Performance: Financials, energy, and industrials shine as tech and healthcare face setbacksInflation Trends: Real-time data suggests cooling inflation and calming food and grocery pricesFed's Position: Powell's cautious “wait-and-see” strategy faces criticism for focusing on outdated inflation metricsGeopolitical Risks: A strong dollar and global conflicts pressure markets, making diversification essentialProductivity Gains: High productivity offers hope for wage growth without spiking inflationInvestment Outlook: Stay diversified and monitor high-growth tech and renewable energy opportunitiesAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

As the post-election market rally gains momentum, how can investors position themselves for what's next? This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the economic implications of recent election results and a renewed Trump administration.From anticipated Republican policy shifts—like potential tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit spending—to a bullish outlook for small-cap stocks, Ryan and Sonu examine how these strategies may shape market sentiment in the months ahead. They discuss the impact of a strong dollar on international equities, why gold's recent dip could offer buying opportunities, and whether bond yields might stabilize following recent increases.So, tune in as they explore market patterns, highlighting how post-election years often deliver solid performance and explore how non-traditional media, like podcasts, are increasingly shaping election sentiment.Key Highlights:Market Rally: Optimism from GOP policies drives small-cap growth post-electionTax and Fiscal Policy: Upcoming tax cuts and spending could spark growth while balancing inflationInvestment Outlook: Bullish on small caps; bond yields may stabilizeGold & Dollar Dynamics: Strong dollar pressures international stocks; gold may be a buying opportunityElection Trends: Historically, markets gain momentum after election yearsShifting Media: Podcasts and new media reshape election sentimentAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

As economic data shows resilience and market expectations shift, how can investors navigate these mixed signals?This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director at Employ America, join hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to assess the economy's current strength and potential headwinds.From surprising 3% GDP growth and possible consumer spending slowdowns to pressures in the housing market driven by high mortgage rates, they discuss why current market optimism might be short-lived. Neil and Skanda also explore how inflation trends, influenced by wage growth and energy prices, could shape future economic stability.So, tune in as they further explore geopolitical risks, such as fiscal policy changes, and their implications for investors as the 2024 election approaches—offering strategies to stay informed and balanced in uncertain times!Key Highlights:Economic Growth Outlook: The strong 3% GDP growth might not last, with possible Q4 slowdowns stemming from decreased consumer and equipment spendingConsumer Spending Concerns: Challenges from stagnant real income growth and high mortgage rates could weigh on spendingFederal Reserve Strategy: A cautious approach to rate cuts, guided by labor cost data, points to measured future actionsInflation and Prices: While lower energy costs help curb inflation, core issues persist amidst moderated wage growthMarket Enthusiasm: Is optimism justified, or are markets overlooking key risks?Labor Market Shifts: Slowing job growth may impact consumer-driven economic momentumPolitical Uncertainty: Upcoming fiscal and policy changes may inject volatility into market forecasts and investment strategiesAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Neil Dutta: LinkedIn: Neil DuttaRenaissance Macro ResearchConnect with Skanda Amarnath: Twitter: Skanda AmarnathEmploy America

As election season heats up, how can investors keep their portfolios steady amid political swings?This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy, PIMCO, joins hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to unpack the 2024 election's potential market impact. From rising deficits and tax reform to tariffs and a divided Congress, they explore why reacting emotionally to political shifts could undermine investment decisions.They also examine how new media like podcasts is reshaping voter engagement—and share strategies for staying calm and focused in high-stakes times.Key Highlights:Election Impact on Markets: Why sticking to portfolio fundamentals is critical amid election uncertaintyKey Election Themes: Likely shifts in deficits, tax reform, and tariffs, regardless of who winsPolling and Predictions: A look at tight races and the caution needed with prediction marketsMedia Shift: How new media is reshaping how voters engage in electionsCongressional Balance: Market risks and opportunities if Congress remains dividedPersonal Reflections: Libby's insights on stress management during an election yearAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Libby Cantrill: LinkedIn: Libby Cantrill, CFAPIMCO

What's the secret to success in both finance and media?This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, joins Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to share his journey from retail stockbroker to RIA founder. He talks about how networking and taking risks helped shape his career and why authenticity is key to staying relevant.Josh also explores balancing work with personal life and why he left social media (Twitter/X) for more direct connections through newsletters and YouTube. Plus, he gives a behind-the-scenes look at his media experiences on CNBC's Halftime Report and as an advisor for Billions.Finally, Josh offers his take on how the pandemic revealed cracks in the financial system, leading to inflation and labor shortages.Tune in for insights on career growth, content creation, and what's next for the economy!Key Highlights:Career Evolution: Networking and risk-taking lessons from Josh's rise from retail stockbroker to top-tier RIA founderWork-Life Balance: Practical advice on blending passion for work with family commitmentsContent Creation: How to build a strong, authentic connection with your audience without relying on big-name guestsFinancial Industry Insights: Balancing commentary with professional relationships in financeMedia Experience: Lessons from Josh's time on live TV and his contributions to BillionsPost-Pandemic Economy: Josh's perspective on how the pandemic reshaped the economy and exposed system vulnerabilitiesAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Joshua Brown: LinkedIn: Joshua BrownRitholtz Wealth Management

As the election approaches, investors are bracing for potential surprises—will history repeat itself, or are we in for something new?This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into key forces at play—rising inflation, surging small- and mid-cap stocks, and why investors are staying calm despite higher CPI and PPI numbers. As Q4 unfolds, they consider whether seasonal trends might cool inflation and how hurricanes could influence the Fed's next steps.They also discuss how the election could sway the markets, why a split Congress might benefit investors, and which trends like defense spending and a strong dollar are likely to stick. Plus, they unpack the spike in the volatility index (VIX) and what it could mean for a post-election market shift.Join us to gain insights and prepare for the market's next moves!Key Highlights:Inflation Trends: Insights into the recent CPI and PPI data, including signs of easing in shelter costs and projections for Q4Market Dynamics: How small- and mid-cap stock strength contributes to broader market gains, supported by strong earnings from major banksElection Impact: Tight polling and the prospects of a split Congress could create a favorable market environment, with defense spending and dollar strength likely to continueVolatility and VIX: What the elevated volatility index suggests about investor sentiment ahead of the electionLabor Market Considerations: Potential impacts of hurricanes on employment data and what this could mean for the Fed's policy directionQ4 Market Outlook: Expectations for strong equity performance, driven by seasonal trends and market momentumAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Is the bull market's two-year run a sign of stability or the start of a shake-up?In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what's driving market strength and what's ahead. With GDP growth, profit gains, and 254,000 new jobs added, they break down what these trends mean for investors navigating today's landscape.They also explore the economic fallout from recent hurricanes in Florida and share how you can help recovery efforts. Inflation and CPI data are key—hear how these might shape Fed decisions and your market strategy.Curious about election impacts? This market may keep defying pessimistic predictions, setting up a deeper dive in the next episode.Key Highlights:Bull Market Resilience: Insights into the economic factors driving the two-year bull run and its future outlookEmployment Data & Economic Strength: A breakdown of recent job growth and wage gains that support market stabilityInflation & Federal Reserve Policies: Analysis of inflation's impact on Fed rate cuts and why CPI data mattersHistorical Market Trends: Examination of past market behaviors and their implications for the current bull runHurricane Impact: Discussion of economic fallout and ways to support hurricane-affected communitiesAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Are your financial decisions shaped by emotions or grounded in logic? The difference could have a bigger impact on your financial future than you think.This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, host an insightful conversation recorded live at the Excel Conference, featuring leading financial minds: Ed Clissold, CFA, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research; Brian Portnoy, CFA, Founder of Shaping Wealth; and Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®, CEO & Founder of Asset-Map Holdings.Together, they examine the behavioral and emotional forces that drive both individual investment decisions and broader market trends. From managing emotional reactions in volatile markets to harnessing the power of storytelling in financial advice, they reveal how financial advisors can elevate their approach. The discussion also explores the complexities of guiding families through financial planning, the critical importance of financial literacy for future generations, and a cautiously optimistic look at today's economic indicators.Key Highlights:Behavioral Finance & Emotional Intelligence: Brian Portnoy highlights the central role of emotions in decision-making. He urges advisors to act as behavioral coaches, helping clients manage their emotional responses to market fluctuations and stay focused on long-term goals.Market Sentiment & Political Reactions: Ed Clissold explains how market tops and bottoms are often driven by emotional extremes like optimism and pessimism. He also touches on how elections can create short-term volatility, but markets typically react independently of political outcomes. Ed reminds advisors to rely on data-driven insights rather than emotional biases when advising clients.Holistic Financial Planning & Storytelling: Adam Holt and Brian Portnoy emphasize the importance of taking a comprehensive approach to financial planning, addressing risks like under-insurance and longevity. Brian adds that storytelling is a powerful tool for advisors, helping clients connect with their financial goals on a deeper level.Market Outlook & Economic Indicators: Ed provides a cautiously optimistic market outlook, highlighting strong consumer spending and investment. While sentiment indicators, like the yield curve, suggest some potential slowdowns, Ed believes a soft landing is more likely than a severe recession.Financial Literacy & Family Dynamics: The panel underscores the importance of improving financial literacy, particularly for younger generations, to prepare them for long-term financial health. Brian also notes the complexities of advising families, emphasizing that advisors must adapt their communication styles to effectively engage all family members in the planning process.Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ed Clissold: LinkedIn: Ed Clissold, CFAConnect with Brian Portnoy: LinkedIn: Brian Portnoy, CFA Connect with Adam Holt: LinkedIn: H. Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Is the Fed's latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth?In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve's significant decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) — the first reduction since March 2020. This pivotal move carries major implications for investors, the economy, and overall market sentiment. Ryan and Sonu explore the reasoning behind the Fed's policy shift and explain what it means for those managing portfolios in today's financial landscape.Are we looking at a new phase of economic momentum, or are there hidden risks on the horizon? The hosts offer a detailed analysis, along with practical advice for financial advisors and investors adjusting their strategies in response to this new economic reality.Key Highlights:Federal Reserve's Rate Cut: The Fed's first interest rate reduction in over three years is framed as a strategic risk management tool designed to stabilize employment and promote sustained growth rather than a reaction to looming recession fearsResilient Economic Data: Despite the rate cut, key sectors like industrial production and retail sales continue to show strength. Robust growth in high-tech industries and online shopping underscores the overall resilience of the economyConsumer Debt and Health: While consumer debt has hit record highs, it remains manageable. Low delinquency rates and minimal bankruptcy filings suggest that household finances remain relatively stableStock Market Gains: Recent stock market gains are driven by strong corporate profit growth rather than inflated valuations. With healthy corporate balance sheets and expanding profit margins, the outlook for continued market growth remains positiveHousing Market Rebound: Although mortgage rates remain high, improvements in housing permits and starts suggest that the Fed's rate cuts are beginning to stimulate activity in the housing sector, a key driver of economic growthBond Market Reactions: Long-term treasury yields have risen despite the rate cut — a positive signal indicating confidence in the economy's future growth rather than fears of a potential recessionFuture Market Outlook: Historical data shows that markets often perform well after major Fed rate cuts, particularly when supported by strong economic momentum, as is currently the caseAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Staying ahead of market volatility requires more than just luck — it demands sharp technical insights and smart risk management. This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group are joined by Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT, Founder, and President at CappThesis. Together, they explore essential technical patterns and market signals that can help traders and financial advisors navigate volatility and optimize their strategies.Is the bull market still on track for higher gains, or should traders prepare for turbulence? Frank explores key topics, from the S&P 500's bullish target to the influence of inflation on investor sentiment. So, tune in as he offers actionable insights on using technical analysis for risk management and effective portfolio management. Key Highlights:Bull Market Forecast: Frank targets 6,100 for the S&P 500 and explains what this milestone means for long-term investorsSeasonal Trends: Discover why September is typically a volatile month and how to adjust your trading strategies accordinglyInflation's Role: Get a detailed breakdown of recent CPI data, especially the impact of rising shelter costs on inflation, and how these figures affect market sentimentDefensive Sectors Outperforming: Learn why utilities and other defensive sectors are outpacing broader market performance — and what it signals for the futureGold vs. Oil: Examine the contrasting performance of gold as a safe haven versus oil's fluctuations, especially in light of China's economic challengesNetworking and Community: Frank shares insights from the Excel conference on the value of idea-sharing and staying sharp in the investment communityAnd much more!Takeaway: To navigate today's markets, understanding key technical signals and being adaptable in risk management strategies is more important than ever.Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Frank Cappelleri: LinkedIn: Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT Website: CappThesisConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Frank Cappelleri is the founder of CappThesis, with over two decades of experience in the finance industry. He worked for major brokerage firms like Instinet and Smith Barney, gaining extensive expertise as an equity sales trader, desk strategist, and research sales specialist. His deep understanding of short-term market movements was shaped by early exposure to technical analysis and insights from experienced market technicians. Frank regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and other financial networks, and his work has been featured in major publications like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. He holds both CFA and CMT designations.

Tune in for our centennial celebration!In this special milestone episode, we're celebrating the 100th episode of Facts vs Feelings with a live audience and special guest Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Together with hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, Tom discusses market outlooks, evolving investment strategies, and key economic trends shaping the future.What's next for the S&P 500? How do historical patterns and Fed actions impact today's market? And why should financial advisors pay close attention to demographic trends and Bitcoin? Tom Lee offers his bold predictions, including the path to S&P 15,000 and the evolving role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios.They discuss: Tom's bold prediction: S&P 500 reaching 15,000 by 2030The impact of demographic trends on long-term market cyclesNavigating short-term volatility, particularly in September and OctoberInsights into Bitcoin's potential and its role in a diversified portfolioThe Federal Reserve's rate cuts and their influence on market outlookStrategies for small-cap stocks in a shifting economyAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Tom Lee: X: Tom LeeWebsite: FundstratConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan's Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy and Telecom Services. Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charterholder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.

Understanding today's economy requires a keen eye on labor markets, Federal Reserve policies, and fiscal strategies.How do these factors interplay to shape the financial landscape? What practical advice can help investors stay grounded amid market noise?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Together they discuss the dynamic nature of the global economy. You'll learn about the practical applications of charts and data in economic analysis, the impact of monetary policy on recession fears, and the relationship between inflation and unemployment. Dr. Kelly also offers invaluable insights into the recent upward trends in productivity and the critical outlook for fiscal policy as we approach 2025.They discuss: The role of charts and data in economic storytellingThe evolving state of the labor market and productivityImplications of Jay Powell's Jackson Hole commentsKey fiscal policy changes and their potential impactsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Dr. David Kelly: LinkedIn: David KellyJ.P Morgan Asset ManagementInterested in hearing more from Dr. David Kelly? Subscribe to his shows wherever you listen to podcasts. Notes on the Week Ahead - Published every Monday  Insights Now and Alternative Realities - Episodes available every Thursday  Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Dr. David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. With over 20 years of experience, David provides valuable insight and perspective on the economy and markets to the institutional investor and financial advisor global communities.David's research focuses on investment implications of an evolving economic environment. He has written extensively on all aspects of the U.S. economy and his proprietary U.S. economic forecasting model helps shape his views on both the economic landscape and prospective asset class returns. He currently sits on JP Morgan Fund's operating committee.Throughout his career, David has developed a unique ability to explain complex economic and market issues in a language that financial professionals can use to communicate to their clients. He is a keynote speaker at many national investment conferences and a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other financial media outlets.Prior to joining J.P. Morgan Asset Management, David served as Economic Advisor to Putnam Investments. He has also served as a senior strategist/economist at SPP Investment Management, Primark Decision Economics, Lehman Brothers and DRI/McGraw-Hill.David is a CFA® charterholder. He also has a Ph.D and M.A. in Economics from Michigan State University and a B.A. in Economics from University College Dublin in the Republic of Ireland.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the financial industry, offering both exciting opportunities and significant challenges.How is AI being integrated specifically into financial services? What are the potential risks and rewards of this technology?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Davi Fava, Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, for an in-depth conversation on artificial intelligence and its revolutionary impact on finance. Dani takes us through the intricate world of AI, explaining its incredible potential, addressing common fears, and highlighting how Carson Group is integrating this technology to better serve their clients.Additionally to our conversation with Dani, Ryan and Sonu discuss the recent performance of the S&P 500, the impact of economic data on market trends, and the outlook for future market movements. They also touch on the role of small businesses and the Federal Reserve's actions in shaping the economy.Key topics discussed:New ways AI is transforming industries, especially financeAddressing fears and ethical considerations surrounding AIPractical applications of AI in daily financial operations and beyondThe recent performance of the S&P 500, including the longest win streak in 20 yearsThe impact of economic data, such as unemployment claims, on market trendsThe Federal Reserve's actions and potential rate cutsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Davi Fava: LinkedIn: Davi FavaConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Dani Fava serves the pivotal role of Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, wielding over two decades of experience in wealth management to drive our strategic direction. Charged with enhancing the client experience through differentiated products and services, Dani's leadership is instrumental in shaping innovative growth strategies and advancing the industry on financial advice and the use of AI.Before joining Carson Group, Dani held influential positions at Envestnet and TD Ameritrade, where she spearheaded initiatives such as digital onboarding, strategic partnerships, and AI integration. Dani's contributions include the development of advisor technologies like iRebal and the Model Market Center, reflecting her commitment to empowering advisors with cutting-edge tools and insights. Her impact and forward-thinking vision earned her a spot on FinTech Magazine's Top 100 Women in FinTech (2021), InvestmentNews' Women to Watch (2020), and ThinkAdvisor's 2020 IA25, underscoring her status as a trailblazer in wealth management innovation.In addition to her professional achievements, Dani is recognized for her thought leadership in the industry, often speaking at conferences and contributing to discussions on the future of financial technology. Dani also serves on the board of Language & Culture Worldwide (LCW), a culture consulting company. This work is an extension of her commitment to see more inclusion in the wealth management industry.

The month of August can often bring unexpected market volatility, and in this release we touch on the reasons behind it and how investors can stay prepared.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the recurring phenomenon of August market volatility, discussing historical events that have shaken the markets during this seemingly unpredictable month. Joined by insights from various professionals, they analyze the reasons behind these patterns and offer valuable perspectives on how investors can navigate the choppy waters of late summer trading. Ryan and Sonu discuss: Historical market disruptions in August and their catalystsThe psychology of market participants during low-volume periodsThe recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's rate hikeThe importance of having a diversified investment strategy to weather unexpected market shiftsKey economic data, such as the unemployment rate and inflation expectations, and their impact on market outlookAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

How do you know when to stay the course or press the panic button during market volatility?In this special episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Barry Gilbert, CFA®, Ph.D. Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, and Grant Engelbart CFA®, CAIA®, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group, for a discussion of this period of heightened market turmoil. The team dives into the recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's actions, the impact of weak job data on the Fed's interest rate decisions, and the ripple effects on both global and domestic markets. They discuss: The Bank of Japan's unexpected moves and their impact on global marketsAnalysis of recent job data and what it means for future Fed rate cutsHow current earnings reports reflect broader market conditionsDiversification strategies to manage riskAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Barry Gilbert: LinkedIn: Barry GilbertConnect with Grant Engelbart: LinkedIn: Grant EngelbartConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Barry Gilbert:Barry Gilbert is a Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist. As the VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, Barry Gilbert combines a background in thought leadership with a pragmatic and disciplined approach to portfolio management.Barry holds a PhD in philosophy from Boston University, an MA from the Pennsylvania State University, and a BA from Haverford College. A former educator, he taught finance and economics in the MSF and MBA programs at Northeastern University's D'Amore-McKim School of Business. Prior to his career in asset management, Barry taught philosophy, the history of ideas, and writing and rhetoric at Harvard University, Trinity College and Boston University, and has served as a visiting research fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, an international think tank in politics and economics.About Grant Engelbart:Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team.Grant received his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, DACFP Certificate in Blockchain and Digital Assets, Candriam Certificate in Sustainable and Responsible Investing and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry.

How do you balance rigorous research with open-mindedness in investing? How do you communicate effectively with clients during volatile times?This week, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management, for an insightful discussion on market strategies and the nuances of value investing. Cliff shares his thoughts on the current state of value investing, explores the concept of 'value spread,' and even dips into some fun side topics.They discuss: The current state of value investing and why it has seen challenging periodsInsights into how AQR navigates market anomaliesThe importance of communication and transparency with clientsFun personal insights into Cliff's interests outside of finance, from hot sauce to superhero moviesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Cliff Asness: LinkedIn: Cliff AsnessX: Cliff AsnessWebsite: AQR Capital ManagementConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest: Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year's best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers' Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum. Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in both. He received an M.B.A. with high honors and a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago, where he was Eugene Fama's student and teaching assistant for two years.

Market chaos and travel nightmares might seem unrelated, but they both reveal deeper systemic issues and opportunities.How do travel disruptions reflect broader economic vulnerabilities? What historical parallels can we draw to understand current market trends?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss their recent travel challenges due to the massive IT outage, inflation data, and bullish market indicators. They also touch on the impact of President Biden stepping down from the elections, as well as consumer and industrial strength.Ryan and Sonu discuss: How a major IT upgrade by CrowdStrike disrupted the world on FridayThe implications of President Biden stepping down from the elections and historical parallels with 1968Upcoming PCE inflation data and its potential impact on future rate cutsCurrent bull market signals, highlighting significant rallies in the Russell 2000 and S&P 500Insights into economic data, inflation trends, and consumer behaviorAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Inflation is no longer the primary concern for investors, as market dynamics begin to shift and new opportunities arise.How do recent inflation trends impact market behavior? What are the implications of the recent rally in small caps, and how do geopolitical events influence market reactions?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into recent market dynamics, focusing on how the rally in small caps and improving inflation data indicate fresh opportunities in the investment landscape. Listen as they discuss the implications of these movements, including the enhanced breadth in the stock market and the potential for a dovish shift from the Fed. Ryan and Sonu discuss: The recent incident involving Donald Trump and the market reactionThe recent CPI data and the surprising improvements in inflationThe extraordinary performance of small and midcap stocksWhat a rotational bull market means for different sectorsThe ongoing strength of the consumer backed by robust retail salesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Carson's midyear outlook “Eyes on The Prize” is out now!How do you balance immediate market reactions with overarching economic indicators? What strategies can help investors stay focused amidst market noise?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into their midyear outlook, discussing everything from the economy and inflation to the Fed's position and stock market expectations. You'll hear about their insights into the labor market's strength, inflation trends, and the possibility of future Fed rate cuts.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The current state and future outlook of the U.S. economyRecent trends in inflation and the Federal Reserve's next movesStock market analysis and predictions for the second half of the yearPortfolio strategies and the role of alternatives in today's financial landscapeAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Midyear Outlook '24: Eyes on The PrizeLive Webinar Link - Tuesday, July 16 at 1pm CTConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese