The Alpha Horizon

Resilienza dell'Unione Europea, inaspettato ottimismo, riapertura della Cina e il ruolo della guerra nelle relazioni internazionali. Questi alcuni dei punti chiave che sono emersi al World Economic Forum 2023 a Davos.Ascolta l'intervento di Davide Serra (Founder e CEO, Algebris Investments)

Some of the key takeaways from the World Economic Forum 2023 in Davos: The resilience of the European Union, unexpected optimism, China's reopening, hawkish central banks and the role of war in international relations. Listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments)

Bond and equity markets hit an air pocket in September 2022 as central bankers got serious about raising interest rates to tackle inflation. Both markets are now down around 20% YTD, with the S&P 500 down 25%. So: what is the global situation now? Listen in to Simon Peters (Investments Strategist) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development)

Until the end of 2021, macroeconomic volatility seemed a thing of the past. Secular stagnation would keep inflation low forever, paving the way for indefinite financial repression. Fiscal discipline was abandoned en masse, as central banks would buy bonds at any price. Unfunded fiscal expansions became the norm, leading to large deficits that didn't revert.The developed world accumulated imbalances, and markets did not react. Currency and interest rates instability was a concern of just a few underdeveloped countries.2022 came as a sudden wake-up call. Global inflation jumped from 2% last year to 10% today, burning years of easy money in the bat of an eyelid. Developed markets had to re-learn how to cope with market discipline. Central banks had to re-learn how to be inflation watchdogs. Loose policies are now punished with higher rates and currency crashes. Bond vigilantes are back, and policy-makers need to get used to it once again.

When fortunes are lost, fortunes can be made. Timing can make all the difference between the two. June marked an important month in the ongoing bear market, as by month-end many “buy boxes” had been ticked, at least in credit markets. Russia reduced gas flows, inflation increased further, and central banks were not budging on growth. All that could go wrong has gone wrong, and fear has taken over markets. When the overriding emotion is panic, it is important to understand that there will also be opportunities. Listen in to Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) discuss the key market risks for the next 12 months and what opportunities are arising for investors.

The longer the party, the worse the hangover. The old adage certainly applies to 2022. The Fed's balance sheet is 3x larger than it was in 2019, and easy money turned into all-time high household wealth. Couple that with the largest fiscal push since WWII and the worst supply shock since 1973, and something has to give. That something is inflation, and with it, markets. Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) discuss the key market risks for the next 12 months and what opportunities are arising for investors.

Wars are symptoms of broader trends. WWI marked the end of the globalization started with the industrial revolution, and WWII the beginning of a new era of global integration. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is no exception. Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) and Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) discuss what the longer-term developments might be, how concerned should investors be about inflation and recession and how they can approach portfolio construction.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine raises important questions about whether or not financial and economic sanctions can work as intended. The scenario around Europe's ability to significantly reduce or remove its reliance on Russian gas should also be considered. Silvia Merler (Head of ESG and Policy Research) and Gabriele Foà (Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) talk to Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) about the evolving situation in the latest episode of The Alpha Horizon

Recent developments on the geopolitical front have created increased uncertainty and volatility. Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development, and Simon Peters, Investment Strategist, discuss how the environment for risk assets has changed and what investors and asset allocators are doing.

Inflation is creating significant volatility and uncertainty. Simon Peters (Investment Strategist) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) discuss what investors should be aware of in the current environment and how best to avoid the negative effects of inflation on investors' portfolios.

Pandemic-related restrictions, extended valuations, inflation expectations, energy prices as well as developments in China and emerging markets: Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development, and Alberto Gallo, Head of Global credit strategies, discuss these and other factors in the context of what investors should be aware of for 2022.

Economic theory tells us that persistent deficits fuel inflation. Does this rule also apply to our biocapacity deficit, defined as the debt we accumulate with the environment and the planet? We explore this topic in a podcast episode hosted by Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development at Algebris Investments, with contributions from Silvia Merler, Head of ESG & Policy Research, and Gabriele Foà, Co-Portfolio Manager for the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities strategy.

With equity markets up strongly for the year, investors are grappling with extended valuations along with a number of other challenges such as inflation, the risk of economic growth disappointment, the possibility of further negative Covid-19 developments & geopolitics. Are there any areas of the equity market that investors can be positive, or even excited about? Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) & Mark Conrad (Portfolio Manager, Global Financial Equities) discuss this and related matters in the context of the short, medium & long-term opportunities of investing in financial equities.

After a period of relative calm, investors are faced with a number of considerations; inflation, reduction in monetary stimulus, developments in China and still-extended risk asset prices. How concerned should investors be at the moment? And how does the current environment impact portfolio construction? Douglas Branson (head of business development) and Alberto Gallo (head of global credit strategies) discuss these and other factors in the context of what investors should be thinking about for the rest of the year.

Parlare di azionario pensando ad Algebris fa subito pensare alla specialità storica della società, il settore finanziario. In realtà, c'è molto di più - una expertise consolidata nel mondo dell'azionario italiano, grazie a un team di valore che sta ottenendo performance sempre più interessanti. Scopri di più in questo podcast con Alex Lasagna e Simone Ragazzi.

Nell'attuale contesto di mercato, gli occhi sono puntati sulle prossime mosse delle banche centrali e sull'andamento di alcune variabili macro-economiche fondamentali come l'inflazione. Ne parliamo con @Alberto Gallo e @Sebastiano Pirro nella seconda giornata di Salone del Risparmio: quali sono le migliori strategie da mettere in campo dal punto di vista del credito? Opportunità, rischi e aspettative dai due gestori Algebris in questo podcast

Il mondo Algebris - con la sua storia, le competenze del suo team, l'impegno di sempre e le nuove sfide - debutta al Salone del Risparmio. È l'occasione per raccontarsi e raccontare una rinnovata attenzione verso il mercato italiano.

In this podcast, Simon Peters, Investment Strategist, and Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development review how markets performed in the first half of the year and what the drivers and our expectations are for markets in the second half of 2021.

What is an NPL? Why are banks selling them at the moment? What are the opportunities, timeline, liquidity and the risks of buying NPLs? What have been the biggest lessons learned since Algebris began and how can you capitalise on them? In this podcast, Simon Peters, Investment Strategist, and Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development, discuss the investment opportunities in distressed debt in the Italian real estate market.

As we head towards the end of the first half of the year with improved sentiment, strong macro data and elevated risk assets, Douglas Branson (head of business development) and Alberto Gallo (head of global credit strategies) discuss the current environment, the outlook for the next six months and what investors should consider in terms of positioning for the rest of the year.

ESG is front-of-mind across many industries, with the financial services sector demonstrating innovation and commitment to adopting the appropriate approach. Algebris is fully committed in its efforts to achieve and contribute to the drive for positive change by having relevant and impactful initiatives at the corporate level, and by integrating effective strategies and policies at the investment process level. Silvia Merler (head of the Algebris ESG committee) speaks to Douglas Branson, (head of business development) about the firm's ESG approach to date, the framework currently in place and our plans to develop it going forward.

From pandemic to vaccine rollouts, markets moved from panic to euphoria. Policymakers' fiscal and monetary stimulus rescued the economy - but now inflation risks are emerging.Alberto Gallo, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, will guide us through bond investing in a post-Covid world, and why it needs an essential rethink.

With clear headwinds and the fact that the significant majority of global bonds market are yielding less than 3%, investors are faced with a challenge of how to access yield and diversification at a time when many other areas of risk markets are at all-time highs. The pandemic-induced recession proved to be one of the toughest examinations for banks in history, with financials proving their resilience and that they really are finally ‘fit-for-purpose'. Simon Peters, Investment Strategist, and Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development, discuss the current state of the bond market and focus on the opportunity offered by the subordinated debt of financials. There is a solution in credit markets for investors…

Le PMI sono garanzia di eccellenza e generano valore per gli investimenti, in particolare in questa fase. Scopriamo perché con Luca Mori, portfolio manager azionario Italia di Algebris Investments.

Following years of investors rightly wanting little to do with bank shares, it is important to periodically reassess if sufficient catalysts are finally in place for the opportunity in financial equities to play out. Having weathered the COVID storm in resilient fashion, the top-down macro-economic environment is supportive for the sector and earnings revisions are bouncing back strongly. In this latest edition of The Alpha Horizon, Simon Peters (Investment Strategist) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) discuss the market environment and highlight an opportunity that should not be dismissed for legacy reasons of the past.

Asset allocation in 2021 presents almost unprecedented challenges. The path for asset returns will heavily depend on events relating to the coronavirus pandemic, politics and policy responses. So, are safe-haven assets still safe? Investors need to re-think the concept of safe havens in a rising inflation environment, and hold less more real and less paper assets.

Economy, markets and politics: how will the world be different after the pandemic? We cannot predict the future, but we can prepare ourselves for any odds.

Un paese che non cresce e dal quale i giovani fuggono, schiacciato dal debito pubblico e dalle disuguaglianze. L'Italia, anche nell'approccio alle politiche fiscali e monetarie, sembra l'unica, in Europa, a non cambiare mai rotta. I fondi del recovery plan saranno l'occasione per una svolta? Un confronto con Silvia Merler, Responsabile della Ricerca dell'Algebris Policy & Research Forum, all'uscita del suo libro La Pecora Nera.

Following the Election Day on 3rd November, a new phase has begun. In this podcast we will analyse the political aspects to consider, the key elements to observe on the financial markets.

Dopo il voto del 3 novembre inizia una nuova fase. In questo podcast analizzeremo gli aspetti politici da considerare, gli elementi da osservare sui mercati finanziari.

Expected scenarios and strategies while waiting for the US election results in a 3-min chat with Alberto Gallo, Global Credit Portfolio Manager.

Find out more on how to look at the financial markets and build a portfolio in an uncertain world with Alberto Gallo, Global Credit Portfolio Manager.

I programmi di quantitative easing della Banca Centrale Europea sono stati fondamentali per contenere gli effetti della crisi economica innescata dalla pandemia di Covid-19. Massimiliano Grillo, Responsabile Commerciale per l'Italia di Algebris Investments, e Silvia Merler, Head of Research dell'Algebris Policy & Research Forum, ci aiuteranno ad approfondire il tema in questo breve podcast.

In this episode, Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, will talk about how the quantitative easing programmes of the European Central Bank have been crucial to contain the effects of the economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.

After the Covid-19 shock, Italy prepares for a new recovery. Davide Serra, CEO of Algebris, highlights the key reasons why investing in Italian SMEs is an interesting opportunity today.Do you still see an opportunity to invest in Italy after the country's economy has been severely hit by the Covid19 virus?What are the characteristics of the Italian small and medium enterprises that make them stand out?Considering the framework of the Italian market, what would you say is the best approach to identify success stories?To conclude, what is your key takeaway to navigate the Italian equity space?

Following four days of intense talks, on July 21st the EU reached an agreement on a €750bn recovery package to aid members affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Some say it has been a historic moment for the European Union, but was it really? In this podcast, Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, summarises the most controversial points of the deal, the outcome for Italy and the implications for European integration going forward.This deal has been hailed by many commentators as an historical moment for European Integration. Is it true? Reaching an agreement has been difficult, taking the European Council 4 days of intense talks. What were the most controversial points of the deal and what compromise has been found? Italy has been especially hard hit by COVID, and a vocal proponent of Eurobonds since early March. Is this deal a victory for Italy ? What do you think this deal means for European integration going forward?

Boiling frogsThe COVID-19 crisis has produced risks and opportunities worldwide. Looking at the latest developments in Europe and at the global political scenario, Alberto Gallo, Head of Macro Strategies at Algebris Investments, discusses implications and perspectives for investors.What does it mean that government bond investors are "boiling frogs"? Why is that?The European Union approved a €750bn Recovery Fund while the US will hold elections in November. Where do you see risks and opportunities around the world?3 From a strategic perspective, what are the asset classes we see value in today?

Il fondo HI Algebris Italia ELTIF nasce con il doppio obiettivo di sostenere il tessuto imprenditoriale italiano e realizzare performance investendo nelle migliori Pmi del paese. Le considerazioni di Davide Serra - CEO di Algebris - e Simone Ragazzi, parte del team di gestori specializzati guidato da Luca Mori.

Alex Lasagna (Deputy CEO) and Antonella di Chio (Deputy Head of NPL Strategies) discuss about the NPL market in Italy, the impact Covid-19 has been having on it and Algebris's positioning.

Algebris, a global asset management firm with a team of over 100 professionals, has been offering diversified investment solution since 2006, historically focusing on financials.What makes Algebris stand out, the expertise of the Algebris investment and research teams, its values and culture told by Davide Serra, Algebris Founder and CEO.

The pandemic accelerates history. New economic and policy trends will change the way capitalism looks, and investing will need to adapt.

Latest updates and open issues in the most recent European debate.Is Europe more united today than divided? What are the implications of this pandemic for European integration? Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum comments on why this Covid-19 crisis will be the one that either makes or breaks Europe for real.

How the European Union prepares to tackle the new economic crisis.ESM, Recovery fund, EU bonds – all you know and all you need to know. In this podcast, Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, provides a clear commentary on these high debated EU measures.

How the Italian economy has been hit by Covid-19 (and how it could recover).The first case of COVID-19 domestic transmission was reported in Italy on February 21st. Since then, the Italian government has implemented an increasingly stricter set of measures aimed at reducing the speed of contagion. Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, analyses the Italian scenario and summarises the estimates and views she further explores with her team in the latest Algebris Policy & Research Forum's paper “COVID-19 IN ITALY. An early estimate of the impact on the economy”.

Why the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 differs from any past wars, recessions and financial crisis.We have often heard “We are at war with the virus”.In this podcast, Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, explains why the Covid-19 pandemic can not be associated with wars or crises as we usually intend them, while sharing possible recipes to tackle this new global crisis.