Podcast appearances and mentions of cameron kusher

How much of what we hear about Australia’s housing crisis is actually true, and how much is just media hype? In this episode, we’re joined by Cameron Kusher, a property economist who’s here to speak without corporate filters, and he doesn’t hold back. We talk about how the media often gets housing stories wrong, oversimplifying complex issues just to chase clicks. The real concern? That these headlines shape government policy, leading to short-sighted solutions that don’t actually fix anything. Cameron walks us through what’s really driving the supply issue: rising construction costs, GST on new builds, financing hurdles, and why “just build more” isn’t as easy as it sounds. We also chat about the missing piece in most political conversations: renters. There’s been decades of underinvestment in social and affordable housing, but that rarely gets the spotlight. We cover everything from tax reform to built-to-rent models, university responsibilities, and what role governments should be playing. If you’ve ever felt like the housing conversation is stuck or too focused on band-aid solutions, this one’s worth a listen. Episode Highlights: 00:00 - Introduction 01:02 - Who is Cameron Kusher? 01:38 - What frustrates Cameron the most about how media covers the housing market 04:21 - How could governments better assist the housing market? 12:44 - How biased is property media? Can we trust it? 15:26 - What do major networks get wrong about the property market? 17:30 - Why immigration is so hard to reduce and what does it means for housing 22:08 - Will falling inflation and interest rates increase housing approvals? 26:31 - Are planning reforms in NSW and VIC actually working? 33:35 - How much housing supply is considered enough? Can we sustain it? 42:14 - Could tax reform like land tax replace stamp duty? 46:14 - Do bold buyer incentives help or hurt the housing market? 48:37 - Are young people really locked out of the housing market? 51:53 - Is ‘giving while living’ the new Bank of Mum and Dad? 53:55 - Will downsizing boomers actually free up family homes? 57:46 - Are Australians becoming comfortable with lifelong mortgage debt? 1:00:06 - Cameron Kusher's property dumbo About Our Guest: Cameron Kusher is a seasoned property economist and one of Australia’s most respected housing market commentators. With more than 20 years of experience working in the Australian property sector., he has held senior research roles at CoreLogic and REA Group, where he served as Executive Manager of Economic Research. Cameron’s expertise spans residential and commercial property markets, focusing on data-driven insights into housing trends, affordability, and policy impacts. He is a sought-after speaker and writer, known for cutting through media noise to highlight the structural and economic forces shaping Australia’s housing landscape. Connect with Cameron Kusher: LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-kusher-bbb71b46/ Resources: Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.alcove.au Work with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now! Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719 Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent of Allen Wargent Property Buyers is joined by Cameron Kusher, Australia's leading housing market analyst, formerly of the REA Group and CoreLogic Australia. In this episode they discuss: - What has Cameron been up to lately? Change of roles pending. What's next, ideally? - What a fortnight! What does all the Trump tariff turmoil mean for Australia? Quite a few possible scenarios, and it is hard to predict - Financial markets turmoil and what's happening with interest rates - What's happening with the Housing Accord target of 1.2 million homes. What are the latest stats telling us? - The challenges with construction costs and apartment prices – new apartment prices are up 33% over the year (Urbis). Doubled since 2019? More owner-occupiers buying. - What is the role of zoning in Australian property? What can it fix, and what won't it fix? - Is Melbourne turning around? Anything positive in the stats? - Brisbane Olympics plans for 2032. Any impact on housing markets? Olympic village etc. Showgrounds, Centenary Pool stadium, Vic Park, tennis centre - What to watch out for over the next few years? Any X-factors? - Where you can contact Cameron if you want to get in touch? X of Twitter: @cmkusher Cameron's substack https://cameronkusher.substack.com/ Resources for this episode Urbis - State of the Market - Apartment Report https://urbis.com.au/insights-news/urbis-apartment-essentials-national-snapshot-2024-q4/ Rask Resources Pete's Buyers Agency: https://www.allenwargent.com.au Alcove mortgage broking: https://www.raskmedia.com.au/services/mortgage-broking Amy Lunardi Buyers Agency (Melbourne) www.amylunardi.com.au All services: https://bit.ly/R-services Financial Planning: https://bit.ly/R-plan Invest with us: https://bit.ly/R-invest Access Show Notes: https://bit.ly/R-notes Ask a question: https://bit.ly/R-quest DISCLAIMER: This podcast contains general financial information only. That means the information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the information is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on it. If you're confused about what that means or what your needs are, you should always consult a licensed and trusted financial planner. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. Remember, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Rask Group is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. Access The Rask Group's Financial Services Guide (FSG): https://www.rask.com.au/fsg #property #australia Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In my experience, most people who have a loud view about scrapping negative gearing are people who can't explain what it is, how it works, why it's bad and how ending it would solve all the problems in the housing industry. Mostly, what's in play with this issue is THE POLITICS OF ENVY – that nagging feeling some people have, that others are doing better than they are, or are receiving benefits that they are not, and therefore need to be squashed. As a famous Indian guru once observed, some people try to be tall by cutting off the heads of others. Contrast that with the views that are expressed when they come from people with the expertise and experience to understand what negative gearing is, how it works and what the consequences would be if it was removed. A recent poll of such people found that the disadvantages would outweigh the advantages. Before delving into the comments of experts who have been interviewed by news media about this recently, let me remind everyone that Australia DID end negative gearing in the 1980s and within two years the same Federal Labor Government that scrapped it, did a major backflip and reinstated it. Why? Because it caused a serious shortage of rental properties and higher rents. And it didn't bring down property prices or improve housing affordability. Let me also remind you that more recently New Zealand put an end of negative gearing tax benefits and right now that nation's government is reinstating it – because, as happened in Australia in the 1980s, the upshot was a rental shortage and higher rents. In the light of those precedents, you have to wonder why we're having this debate at all. Now, returning to a recent survey of so-called experts polled by the Australian Financial Review – the majority view, arising from that survey, was that the consequences of changing tax arrangements for property investment are likely to include higher rents. Why? Because investors would exit the housing market, causing a further drop in supply of rental homes at a time when Australia has the lowest vacancy rates ever recorded. Analysts polled in the quarterly Australian Financial Review property survey, overall, painted a “BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR” scenario amid a national debate over the merits of changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax – which is usually described by media, inaccurately and unfairly, as a CONCESSION. Those polls said any benefit to first home buyers from any price falls – which are hypothetical and not based on any precedent or research - as investors exit the market would be modest, potentially short-term and effectively traded off against a consequent squeeze in supply. Here's one prediction from a respondent to the survey: He says: “By lowering the after-tax return to investors, any move to wind back the negative gearing benefit and increase capital gains tax would lead to a fall in investor demand for housing and a short-term fall in prices, say of 3-4 per cent.”  However, those comments from Australia's worst forecaster of residential property outcomes, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver – so the forecast that property prices would fall is somewhat dubious. That certainly didn't happen in Australia in the 1980s or in New Zealand after they, more recently, ended negative gearing. In any case, Oliver goes on to say: “However, this (slight fall in prices) is likely to be short-lived as less investor participation in the property market would ultimately lead to a lower supply of new homes to the property market, higher rents and then a blowback to higher prices. “It will do nothing to fix the basic problem which is a chronic undersupply of housing relative to population-driven demand.” That much he got right. Proptrack's executive manager for economic research, Cameron Kusher, said the removal of negative gearing and increasing capital gains tax might marginally reduce house prices, but consequent discouragement to investment would reduce supply. He said” “It's important to look at the taxation system holistically rather than in a vacuum, especially whilst the rental market remains challenged.” In other words, there would be more disadvantages than advantages. Barrenjoey's chief economist Jo Masters warned of the “unintended consequences” of modifying the current settings. She said: “Negative gearing and capital gains tax reform alone are not a silver bullet and need to be debated both in the context of broad tax reform, and the other levers available to the housing sector, including supply.” Nicola Powell, Domain's chief of research and economics, said that it was “a common misconception” that the negative gearing and CGT provisions were “primarily enjoyed” by wealthy, older Australians.  Powell said most investors own just one property, and a larger share of them are under 50. She said: “If negative gearing were removed or scaled back, younger, more financially vulnerable investors – especially those with just a single property – would be the first to feel the impact, potentially leading them to sell. Meanwhile, wealthier investors, who are more likely to be positively geared, have greater financial flexibility and would be less affected.” Like other respondents, Jarden analyst Lou Pirenc says any benefit from the departure of some investors from the market it would come at a cost. He said: “Longer term, growth to new housing supply could be further weakened with less incentives for investors to enter the market, especially as the cost of owning an investment property currently remains unattractive. “This,” he said, “could potentially see house prices RISE longer term as the imbalance between demand and supply exacerbates.” Indeed. So the consensus among those commentators is that removing negative gearing tax benefits and increasing capital gains tax would not provide any long-term improvement in housing affordability but would reduce the supply of housing, particularly rental homes, and PUT FURTHER UPWARD PRESSURE ON RENTS. But try telling that to the Greens, whose draconian anti-real estate policies were a primary reason they were the big losers in the Queensland state election at the weekend.  

What's really going on in Australia's property market? In this episode, we sit down with Cameron Kusher, Executive Director of Economic Research at REA Group, to unpack the trends shaping the Australian property market right now. With access to some of the country's most comprehensive property data, Cameron sheds light on what buyers are searching for, where listings are rising, and how this all connects to transactions and prices. We dig into regional differences in price growth—why places like Perth and Adelaide are surging, while Melbourne struggles—and what's driving these changes. Cameron explains how the rental market is finally loosening up, making it easier for sellers to transition, and we discuss the growing influence of investors in certain areas. We also talk through the impact of interest rates and how expectations of future cuts are influencing sellers' behaviour. There's a fascinating shift happening with buyers too—more selectiveness, fewer bidders at auctions, and changing preferences driven by necessity rather than desire. We touch on how affordability is pushing renters out to the fringes, and Cameron shares insights into how the work-from-anywhere trend is reshaping migration patterns. This episode really gets under the hood of the property market. If you're curious about how things are tracking and what's around the corner, you won't want to miss it! Episode Highlights: 00:00 - Introduction 01:09 - Who is Cameron Kusher? 01:39 - How is the spring market shaping up for real estate? 03:33 - Spring selling season dynamics 06:02 - Regional market trends and price divergence 08:26 - Is property market urgency on the rise based on recent search data? 14:00 - Perth's unique market conditions 17:25 - How does REA view the long-term decline in property turnover rates? 20:00 - Factors influencing established dwelling prices 23:20 - Which property types or areas show the best capital growth based on transaction data? 25:24 - Key factors that contribute to the established dwelling price movements 28:47 - Are relocation trends shifting based on geotagged property inquiries? 35:00 - Have you noticed a drop in online demand as rental price growth has slowed recently? 39:13 - Are you seeing trends in rental properties being sold as investors exit the market? 46:33 - What exciting innovations in buyer products are on the horizon at REA? 50:11 - Cameron Kusher's property dumbo 50:42 - Is there alignment between the PIPA survey results and REA's online user interest? About Our Guest: Cameron Kusher is the Executive Director of Economic Research at REA Group, with 20 years of experience across residential and commercial property sectors. His expertise spans valuations, property development, consulting, and market research, giving him a deep understanding of demographics, trends, and economics. Before joining REA, he spent over 11 years at CoreLogic as Head of Research for Australia. Cameron oversees the production of REA's market reports and engages with media, customers, and industry stakeholders. Known as a thought leader, he frequently provides commentary, delivers keynote speeches, and writes on housing trends, demographics, mortgage markets, and industry opportunities. He holds a Bachelor of Applied Science in Property Economics from Queensland University of Technology. Connect with Cameron Kusher: Website https://realestate.com.au/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-kusher-bbb71b46/ Resources: Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.flintgroup.au Work with Chris: chrisbates@flintgroup.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now! Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719 Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Note: Monthly FET subscription prices are rising for new subscribers. This is intentionally to make an annual subscription much more attractive. Current monthly paid FET subscribers are unaffected and will always keep their original price. Yearly prices remain unchanged. I hope you find it in you to support my efforts here to raise the quality of our economic conversation with an annual subscription (it might even be tax deductible for you!)Markets are good at making trade-offs.Even if everyone in the market is irrational, the constraints of the system—of money balances and property rights—often lead to acceptable and favourable trade-offs. I explained that logic in more detail here.Markets also encourage innovation because new technology can break down old trade-offs by getting more output (in terms of its value to others in the economy) per input. The market in real estate is no different. This market efficiently uses high-value locations for high-value uses. This means people with a low value for a location will be excluded from that location. It is the same in other markets. Those who place a low value on luxury goods won't buy them. You might claim this is often because of unequal wealth and income. And you would be right. Some people don't like the inevitable inequalities in market outcomes, and they often search for market failures to explain it, especially in real estate markets (as I document in this academic article).Today's topic is not inequality. The topic today is the forgotten temporal dimension of the trade-off that participants make in all markets. As well as allocating products to who values them most, markets allocate across time to when new products are valued most. In other words, markets will efficiently delay or bring forward production decisions across time.For example, Toyota is bringing its new Prado model to Australia this year. But it isn't pricing them to maximise its 2024 profits only, even though the market for four-wheel-drives in Australia is very competitive and lower pricing could greatly increase 2024 sales. Toyota is pricing in a way that it expects will maximise not just its 2024 profit (quantity of sales in 2024 times the margin per vehicle) but the present value of its flow of profits in 2024, 2025, and beyond. Toyota will bring forward sales with lower prices only if it increases the total present value of production profits by more than it gives up in future sales at higher prices.All firms are forward-looking and consider the effect of their choice of production rate and pricing on their future profitability—not just this year's, this month's or this week's profit. Back in 1931, a popular concern was that markets would use up natural resources like coal, minerals and oil, too quickly. Were markets just wasting these resources? Harold Hotelling pondered that question and explained how (like Eric Crampton explained more recently) markets won't inefficiently use up resources too quickly. They trade off extracting more resources now with extracting more later. Unfortunately, most economic analysis mostly assumes away the intertemporal trade-off, and this can lead to major errors in reasoning and interpretation of evidence. This intertemporal trade-off in real estate means that most feasible housing development projects are delayed into the future, even when prices or rents appear to be high and projects are profitable today. As I noted earlier, some people don't like this inevitable market outcome, so they search for market failures to explain it. But it's not a failure. We want markets to efficiently delay building homes, don't we?Why isn't this well-known?I admit that it took me a while to notice intertemporal trade-offs and fully recognise their significance. That's probably because most economic analysis at best consists of assuming away time altogether, simplifying to a short-run (single static period) and a long-run (some other single static period) with no way of bridging the two.Because economists are trained this way, it leads to a blind spot across the discipline when it comes to timing decisions. On X, I was surprised to see that a seemingly innocuous post below garnered over six million views in a few days. It simply asked why landowners in private markets would build so quickly that prices fell. Which is a very good question!The thousands of replies almost unanimously explained most smugly the crossed swords of supply and demand from Economics 101 that they learnt, forgetting that this simplified model assumes away the time dimension. The replies showed complete ignorance of the dynamics of housing supply and price effects from supply today on profits tomorrow— a hot topic of study in the academic literature with many researchers trying hard to understand it. People for some reason don't believe me. They want settled science—preferably ECON101.So today's article is a deep dive into the forgotten economics of inter-temporal market trade-offs when it comes to housing production. It takes you far beyond ECON101 and to the cutting edge of knowledge about when and why homes are built.Let's start with a quote from urban economist Alvin Murphy, who noted in a working paper version of his 2018 paper entitled A Dynamic Model of Housing Supply that:A static model would predict that a parcel owner would build the first time it becomes profitable, whereas the dynamic model allows a parcel owner to delay building (even when profitable) in order to attain higher profits at a future date. [p15]That line didn't make it into the final version of the article, which in typical economics fashion was published eight years later, but that version makes the same point clearly in its opening sections.In the model, landowners choose both the optimal timing of and the optimal size of construction. These owners take into account current profits and expectations about future profits, balancing expected future prices against expected future costs. Analyzing these decisions with a dynamic framework allows one to meaningfully separate the effects of current profits on supply from the effects of expected future profits on supply, which is the key mechanism through which forward-looking behavior reduces the housing supply elasticity.Here's moreForward-looking behavior substantially reduces the responsiveness of landowners to current price changes. This reduction occurs because rising prices make building today more attractive, but also signal higher future prices, making waiting more attractive, thus reducing the responsiveness to current price. Interestingly, this forward-looking behavior suppresses the responsiveness to current price by a much greater extent during boom periods with rapidly rising land and house prices.That forward-looking behaviour considers the returns given up on the assets required to develop new homes (the cash to pay for construction and the land asset) for the returns to the new home (net rent and capital gain) after consideration of local price effects from faster development. A simple demonstrationThe tools most relevant for understanding intertemporal trade-offs come from a field of economics known as real options, which analyses timing choices of irreversible capital investment—clearly relevant for understanding housing production. The logic of real options and the intertemporal trade-off means that for new housing, two conditions must hold to make it worthwhile to build a dwelling today rather than tomorrow (though not really today or tomorrow, it could be this year instead of many years in that future or any other trade-off between some future period and the present). These are:* The market value of a dwelling must equal the development cost plus the value of the land (which itself gets a value because it is a financial derivative—an option). In the lingo of real options analysis, this is called the value matching condition.* The total return to the developed home must equal the total return to the assets swapped for it. In the lingo of real options analysis, this is called the smooth pasting condition.The first of these is a bit tricky to understand if you have in mind that the price of goods comes from the summation of input costs, but the second is more important for dynamics and I think it is quite straightforward to grasp.Value matchingIt seems intuitive that new homes only get built if the market price of what is built is as high as the market price of the land plus the development cost. Where property markets differ from many other markets is that homes need places to put them, and those property rights to places, or land, have a value because of their potential ability to generate future returns. Land gets its value like any other financial derivative. So the important thing to understand is that there are market constraints on being able to buy land cheaply, then build homes, and make abnormal profits (i.e. profits that more than compensate for the risk involved in that process).The reason is that every potential land seller also has the option to build homes themselves and take that risk and make a profit. They can arbitrage the value themselves. So the sale price of developable land, at a minimum, will be the residual of the market price of developed housing, minus development cost (which includes a margin for the risks involved in actual construction and sale). The diagram below shows on the left the market price of a completed housing project. The next part of the diagram has the land value (yellow) as the residual of market price minus development cost (blue) at the value-matching equilibrium condition where development today is the highest value option for the land. Let's make this example more concrete. Imagine that a home is worth $1 million (for the sake of round numbers). By definition, if the home costs $500,000 in construction and development costs (including a risk margin), which is the blue bar, then the land is worth a minimum of $500,000, which is the yellow bar. The sum of these inputs equals the market price, but only because the land value is caused by the market price of the home minus the development cost.The value matching condition says that this must hold for the marginal project that will be built today rather than delayed until tomorrow. But what is commonly misunderstood is that a land value of housing price minus development cost is the minimum amount that land will be worth for a development site.It might be the case that at a particular location for a particular lot, buyers are willing to pay $600,000 for the lot, even though construction and development costs (including a risk margin) are $500,000 and homes are only worth $1 million. The land is valued more highly than the residual for the best choice project today because the land owner has the option to instead build a different project later that might be even more valuable.The next columns in our diagram show this common situation where there is a delay premium in the market value of land. That extra value of land above the residual value, if developed today, is an option premium. This premium is the value the owners (buyers and sellers) of land derive from being able to choose when to develop and potentially build something bigger, better, and more profitable in the future on that site. In this case, landowners think there are more gains from waiting.So we have seen how land values can be above the residual of today's housing price minus development cost because of an option premium. But why is the value matching condition a minimum land value for a site with development potential?The far right of our diagram shows a hypothetical situation where the market value of land is lower than this residual value matching condition. The trick to understanding why this situation cannot happen is because it requires land sellers to leave money on the table—after all, they have the option to develop or delay if they want to. It can't be the case that land is available to buy in the market for $400,000 if homes that cost $500,000 to build (including a margin for risk) are selling for $1 million. Sellers are giving up $100,000 if they sell the land rather than building a home and selling it themselves. So they won't accept a lower price. In asset markets, the concept of “price is above cost” doesn't work. How does that apply to shares (stocks) in BHP or Apple? How can the price of those shares be above their cost? The price is the cost. The same applies to land.It is a common mistake to think that land can be purchased at a price that represents its value only if the current use is allowed. People say things like “Only zoning is stopping developers from buying land at agricultural prices and building homes”. That's not how land markets work. If you are allowed to build homes, no property owner will sell the land for the agricultural price, and you will be competing with other buyers willing to pay at least the residual value of the price of development today minus the cost.So to wrap up, the value matching condition means that for the marginal site that could be built today (with the lowest value to delay), its value is equal to the residual of the market price minus the development cost. For other non-marginal development sites, the land value is above this residual of today's market price for homes minus development cost. But even if this value matching condition holds, it is not enough to justify new housing production today. The second condition must hold too. Smooth pastingBuilding a new home is an asset swap of cash and land for housing. That swap will only occur if the expected rate of return is higher for the purchased asset than the asset given up to get it. Not only do the sum of values of the land and cash (for development costs) assets given up to build a housing asset have to match (the value matching condition), but so do the rates of return on the assets given up have to match the rate of return on the new housing asset. The rate of return between building a home and not building will be equal in an inter-temporal market equilibrium.The diagram below shows this second equilibrium condition, known as the smooth pasting condition (or sometimes it is called rate of return equalisation). The left in red shows the total return from one period to the next for developed housing, represented as the rate of change in total value (including net rents and capital gains). So if the $1 million home in our hypothetical example makes $60,000 in capital gains and net rental income, then that's a 6% total return— the value of that asset in a year's time is $1.06 million.The next part of the diagram shows the return to waiting from the gains in value to the land (yellow) and the return on cash needed for construction (blue). Here, we have a case where the capital gains to holding developable land are 6% and the interest rate on cash is 6% too. In this situation, the rate of return from waiting is equal to the rate of return from building. If you had $1 million in a home your assets would be worth $1.06 million next year, and if you had $1 million in cash and undeveloped land, then your assets would be $1.06 million in a year's time as well. On the right of the diagram is the situation where the rate of return from waiting is higher than from having a home. Say the interest on cash is 7% and the value of developable land is growing at 8%. In this situation, you give up $1 million of cash and land assets making $75,000 in total returns to get a $1 million house asset earning $60,000 in returns. You will be better off in this case by waiting instead. People always forget the smooth pasting condition that must apply in a housing production equilibrium. Back to the rate of home production (i.e. supply)Let's check in. We have two dynamic equilibrium conditions that must hold in a housing production market equilibrium. These conditions help explain why most feasible sites for housing remain undeveloped — the market is trading these homes into the future, efficiently delaying them until they are produced at the most valuable time. If the rate of return to waiting to build a home is higher than from building it now, then markets are efficiently delaying housing production. But how do we know how many homes are built each period? Where does that rate of housing production come from? There must be a flow of new housing per period that sustains these equilibrium conditions. We need to think about this carefully. And to be clear, we are now approaching the end of our collective knowledge about what determines the rate of housing production. There are many possible trades of assets in housing markets. For example, you can trade cash directly for homes, as well as trading cash for construction and combining that with a land asset to get a home. You can also “cash out” land and get its value as cash by selling rather than building homes. The available trades are shown below. In each of these asset swap markets, equilibrium forces dictate the rate of trading, which depends on the relative returns to each asset. The diagram also helps us understand why construction cycles tend to track house price cycles. If you have cash and want to get the return from homes instead, the two ways to get that return are to buy homes or build them. So more of both happen together. Another point to note is that building homes is irreversible. The arrows of this asset swap are shown pointing one way only. You can of course physically go back from a lot with a dwelling to a vacant lot by spending on demolition, but this generally won't make economic sense (though there are extreme scenarios where it does). So the production of new homes represents the willingness of current owners of land to convert that land asset to a housing asset. This is the idea behind a phrase I like: “Supply starts when speculation ends.” Building new homes is the act of giving up an undeveloped land asset for cash or a dwelling.Here's how I am trying to extend our thinking on how the rate of production fits in this market system of asset trades. First, I take as an assumption that the growth rate in the value of dwellings and undeveloped land is reduced by faster production of homes. More supply, in the form of faster production, reduces prices.Another assumption is that in the absence of demand growth and new production of homes, price growth is zero. This implies that only demand growth (from higher incomes or population) leads to rising prices. Combining these two assumptions creates the following relationship, whereby the rate of growth in housing asset prices is the rate of growth in demand, minus the price effect from the rate of new housing production. Mathematically, a portion of undeveloped land that can be converted into one dwelling, has the price growth ofwhere the first term (rate of price growth) is equal to the rate of demand growth minus the sensitivity of price to the rate of production of new homes, q. To be in an equilibrium, this gain from owning land must be the same as the gain from cash or other asset market investments—otherwise, you could swap land for cash or other assets and get a higher return. This is the exact condition Harold Hotelling identified in his 1931 paper on a theory of exhaustible resources. He noted that even in a market with completely free competition, the price growth of a resource not extracted will track the prevailing rate of return of other assets in the economy. Undeveloped land also has the economic feature that you have one chance to use it up by building before it is exhausted. So if we call the return to cash and other assets, I, and assume that there is an equilibrium with the price growth rate of undeveloped land, then we have:The only equilibrium rate of housing production, q, is one where this condition holds. Therefore:This last equation essentially says that the asset market equilibrium rate of new housing production is a function that increases with the rate of demand growth, decreases with higher interest rates, and decreases with the price sensitivity of the market to faster sales of new homes.This fits with the cycle of housing construction in Australia. REA Group's Cameron Kusher shared this chart recently, showing declining interest rates leading housing construction cycles (though of course demand growth and interest rates are themselves not independent).Other rates of housing production mean that abnormal returns can be had by making certain asset swaps shown in the above diagram. This is the only condition where the gains from waiting equal the gains from producing homes, and the rate of return is equalised across all asset trading margins. But this is very much the edge of knowledge as I said. In fact, an academic paper of mine where I first looked at the question of equilibrium rates of housing production found the opposite relationship with interest rates (more on that paper here). In this setup, where a single landowner optimises their net profit flow, higher interest rates mean a higher cost to waiting (i.e. by holding land instead of cash) and hence a faster optimal rate of supply. How these individual-level and market-level incentives interact, regarding the return to holding other assets (the interest rate), is an unresolved issue at the cutting edge of economic thinking on housing supply. Either (or both) of these approaches may be wrong. Or both incentives may exist, but interact in ways we don't know about. In sumKnowing that markets trade-off production across time, and specific intertemporal conditions required to make housing production worthwhile today, are just the first steps in understanding how taxes and regulations might affect the rate of housing production. How do changes to taxes, monetary policy changes, and regulations on development affect these outcomes? We honestly don't know. The thing is, this type of dynamic optimisation must happen in every market. Toyota's production of Prados will be responsive to demand growth and they may also reprice higher if demand grows quickly, and lower prices if demand is falling. Despite the widespread confidence in our knowledge of housing supply, there is a theoretical black hole here. This post has taken you to the event horizon of knowledge.But I hope by coming this far, you are ahead of 99% of pundits who yell “supply and demand, stupid” to anyone who wants to understand markets better. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe

Every week, we jump on the Australian Property Podcast airwaves to answer your questions or cover the top news stories. In this week's episode, Pete and Cameron cover:  Episode resources  1 – Housing shortage expected to worsen https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/03/australias-housing-crisis-to-worsen-with-significant-shortfall-in-supply-labors-expert-council-says https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/16/national-cabinet-agrees-to-build-12m-new-homes-in-bid-to-tackle-housing-crisis 2 – Regional markets where prices have surged https://www.realestate.com.au/news/booming-regional-cities-where-prices-have-jumped-up-to-20-in-a-year/ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-05/australias-second-largest-cities-outpace-capital-property-prices/103883584 3 – Household wealth at record levels, but widening https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2024/04/wealth-gap-widening-new-report-acoss https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/2024/6/ANU_Budget_Modelling_2024-25_Budget_1.pdf ~~ Resources you'll love ~~ Invest with Owen: https://bit.ly/R-invest Mortgage Broking: https://bit.ly/broke-rask Financial Planning: https://bit.ly/R-plan Property Coaching: https://bit.ly/R-P-coach 100-point property checklist (PDF): https://bit.ly/prop-check Accounting with Grey Space: http://bit.ly/3DG5lWS Business Coaching: https://bit.ly/o-coach Ask a question: https://bit.ly/3QtiY00 DISCLAIMER: This podcast contains general financial information only. That means the information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the information is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on it. If you're confused about what that means or what your needs are, you should always consult a licensed and trusted financial planner. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. Remember, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Rask Group is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. Access The Rask Group's Financial Services Guide (FSG): https://www.rask.com.au/fsg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What's holding boomers back from selling their bigger family homes and right-sizing for their current life stage? We talk to Cameron Kusher, Director of Economic Research at PropTrack, and Von Slater, Executive General Manager at Ingenia, on the state of housing market for this generation, what they want, and what the future holds.

Housing has never been less affordable - which means saving for a property has never been harder especially when also paying rent. Cameron Kusher, the Director of Economic Research at PropTrack and James Algar from Mortgage Choice talk about the creative ways people are getting into the property market, and how renters can stop themselves from falling behind while others are surging ahead.

Will 2024 be another unpredictable year in property? What can we expect from interest rates, stock levels, construction, affordability, and the rental market? We chat with Cameron Kusher, the Director of Economic Research, and Economist Anne Flaherty, both from PropTrack to get their predictions for the 2024 property market.

The conditions have been building for a rebound in negative gearing with climbing interest rates and rising rental yields. Now a surprise reversal in tax relief for upper-income earners means the search for tax deductions is about to begin again. In today's show, we cover; the startling figures on mortgage stress, how negative gearing just gets better, the Canberra rent freeze and why the split between homeowner and investor lending rates? Cameron Kusher, research director at REA (a subsidiary of News Corp) joins wealth editor James Kirby in this episode.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Which stocks will take off in 2024? SPDR ETF Investment Strategist Julia Lee reveals what she expects to see in the upcoming earnings season. Plus, property market analysis with REA's Cameron Kusher and the Treasurer defends tax cut changes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Interest rates, price growth, rental demand and low stock levels reigned supreme in the 2023 property market - we chat with John Healy, Head of Content at REA Group and Cameron Kusher, Director of Economic Research at PropTrack to deep dive into exactly what the market looked like and the long term effects it could have on property moving forward.

What happens when new money comes to an old suburb? Chatting with Cameron Kusher, Director of Economic Research at PropTrack and Michelle Stephens from O'Brien Realestate, we explore the impacts of gentrification on suburbs - from pushing out existing residents to driving up property prices.

What are the latest property trends, when can we see the rental market ease and what is the future for property owners? On this episode of the Australian Property Podcast, Buyer's Agent Pete Wargent is joined by a very special guest, Cameron Kusher. Cameron is the Director of Economic Research at REA Group and is one of Australia's top and best-known property market analysts. Pete and Cameron are deep diving into everything you want to know from a real estate and property insider's perspective by discussing some of the most debated and talked about topics  On this episode: Current Listing Environment: Why aren't people listing? Is there any sign of that changing? The latest trends in construction and new housing supply: is the pipeline still solid or contracting? Are construction costs coming down? Are new home sales still struggling? Rent: What's happening in the market? What will it take to bring investors back into the market? Build to Rent: Impact on the housing market over the next decade, what are the required returns, what scale are we going to see? and where are we going to see it? Victorian budget and land tax changes: what are the impacts on the market? what will this mean for investors or renters? This is an insightful episode with one of Australia's most recognisable property brands so this is not one to miss! Australian Property Podcast resources: Australian Property Podcast online - videos, notes & resources Ask a question Chris' mortgage broking Amy's new property course Amy's 100-point checklist (PDF) Pete Wargent's property coaching Join Owen's Rask Core  membership for $0.99 INFORMATION WARNING! This podcast contains general financial information only. That means the information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the information is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on it. If you're confused about what that means or what your needs are, you should always consult a licensed and trusted financial planner. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. Remember, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Rask Group is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. Full individual disclosures for each guest are available via the show notes page. Owen and The Rask Group Pty Ltd do NOT receive anything for mentioning Super funds, products, shares, bank accounts, etc. Access The Rask Group's Financial Services Guide (FSG): https://www.rask.com.au/fsg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Investors pay a higher mortgage rate than home loan borrowers. However, this was not always the case – and there is now a solid argument to suggest that investors should pay less. In reality, the repayment statistics for investors are better than the same numbers for homeowners – but investors get no reward for their better performance. Cameron Kusher, Executive Director - Economics, at REA Group joins Wealth Editor James Kirby's guest in this episode. Submit your questions on all things property, business and finance here - themoneypuzzle@theaustralian.com.au  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cameron Kusher, Executive Manager - Economic Research at REA Group, joins ANZPJ Editor Benn Dorrington to discuss Australia's Residential Property Market and how it performed during the first quarter of 2023. Cameron discusses housing values, sales, new home building, listing activity, rents, and his outlook for the housing market. The Voice of Value is a podcast series about Australia's property industry. Powered by the Australian Property Institute, this series features in-depth conversations with Australia's property leaders about their careers and passions, as well deep dives into different property markets.

Cameron Kusher, Director, Economic Research, PropTrak speaks with Matthew Pantelis about rental prices up more than 4% and Stacey Northover, Exec General Manager, Believe Housing explains their rental affordability snapshot.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We talk to to PropTrack executive manager of economic research Cameron Kusher. Modelling from PropTrack shows the worst is yet to come, with prices likely to fall a further 3-6 per cent this year before tumbling another 9-12 per cent by December 2023.   ► Subscribe here to never miss an episode: https://www.podbean.com/user-xyelbri7gupo ► INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/therealestatepodcast/?hl=en  ► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100070592715418 ► Email:  myrealestatepodcast@gmail.com    IF YOU LIKE THIS PODCAST please head to iTunes and Subscribe, Rate & Review the Real Estate Podcast     #sydneyproperty #Melbourneproperty #brisbaneproperty #perthproperty

Episode 7 with Cameron Kusher, EM for Economic Research at REA Group. We take a lap around the country and find out which property markets have peaked and which still have legs. Is the RBA moving too fast or slow and what does a Labor "RED WAVE" mean for property markets. Host James Whelan (VFS Group)Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought ten years of changes in just one year, and there's no doubt that 2021 has been a wild ride. That being said, how can buyers, investors, agents, and sellers best prepare for the differences in market trends for the years to come?  In this episode, we have Cameron Kusher of REA Group to share unique and valuable insights about the property market and what people can learn from 2021, the potential use of AI in the market, the impact on property of working from home, and more!  If you enjoy the show, do like, rate, subscribe, and share us on social media and if you have your own questions you need clarity on, email us at questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au! See you in the episode!   Episode Highlights: What's been happening at REA Group in the last two years [02:06] Signs at the beginning of 2020 that pointed to the property market boom [03:02] Is the ‘second home phenomenon' sustainable? [05:15] How many people in the search data will actually buy a property? [07:29] The potential use of AI in property market data [15:10]  What is going on in the Australian property market in terms of inquiry data? [16:58] The affordability drive [21:39] Will there be abatement in the rising of property prices? [22:51] Common filters people use when searching for properties [25:38] Factors that are holding investors back [31:46]  Rentals in Australia [34:07] Looking into the changes in regional search activity [38:41] Measuring the popularity of a listing [40:31] The impact of working from home in the property market [44:09] What buyers and sellers need to look into in 2022 [45:49]  Cameron's Property dumbo [50:49]   Link from the Show: Locked Down But Not Out: Investors stage 2021 market comeback   About Cameron: Cameron Kusher is the Executive Director of Economic Research at REA Group. He has worked in several areas of the property sector throughout his career and has more than 15 years' experience working as a property market analyst in both the residential and commercial fields.   Connect with Us: Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? www.gooddeeds.com.au Work with Veronica: https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan Looking for a Mortgage Broker? www.wealthful.com.au Work with Chris: hello@wealthful.com.au  Send in your questions to: questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au    Find this episode on our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/210   If you've enjoyed this episode, don't forget to like, share, rate and subscribe for more! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cameron Kusher is a veteran of property market research in Australia, and is presently the Executive Manager of Economic Research at Australia's leading global digital business specialising in property, REA Group.In this episode, Cameron shares his thoughts on the questions everyone wants to know the answers to, including whether the property boom will continue in 2022.

ANZ Emerging Economics is proud to present a three-part casual, on the couch style podcast series called, ‘Where the Australian economy is at'. Hear from brilliant minds, ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, REA Group Senior Economist, Cameron Kusher and Michael Wake, ANZ General Manager NSW/ACT Branch Network who will join Andrew Cornell from ANZ bluenotes for an insightful conversation on the current state of the Australian economy. In an environment with low rates, record property prices and an ongoing pandemic, the podcasts will look at the investment opportunities emerging, what looks to be transpiring over the coming months, and the key themes shaping the property market. Part 1: Michael Wake, ANZ General Manager NSW/ACT Branch Network Part 2: Adelaide Timbrell, ANZ Senior Economist Part 3: Cameron Kusher, REA Group Executive Director of Economic Research Tune in and listen to these podcasts to better understand the surprisingly optimistic outlook and how you can take advantage of these opportunities moving forward. *Please note, the podcasts will only be available for a limited time. *

ANZ Emerging Economics is proud to present a three-part casual, on the couch style podcast series called, ‘Where the Australian economy is at'. Hear from brilliant minds, ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, REA Group Senior Economist, Cameron Kusher and Michael Wake, ANZ General Manager NSW/ACT Branch Network who will join Andrew Cornell from ANZ bluenotes for an insightful conversation on the current state of the Australian economy. In an environment with low rates, record property prices and an ongoing pandemic, the podcasts will look at the investment opportunities emerging, what looks to be transpiring over the coming months, and the key themes shaping the property market. Part 1: Michael Wake, ANZ General Manager NSW/ACT Branch Network Part 2: Adelaide Timbrell, ANZ Senior Economist Part 3: Cameron Kusher, REA Group Executive Director of Economic Research Tune in and listen to these podcasts to better understand the surprisingly optimistic outlook and how you can take advantage of these opportunities moving forward. *Please note, the podcasts will only be available for a limited time. *

ANZ Emerging Economics is proud to present a three-part casual, on the couch style podcast series called, ‘Where the Australian economy is at'. Hear from brilliant minds, ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, REA Group Senior Economist, Cameron Kusher and Michael Wake, ANZ General Manager NSW/ACT Branch Network who will join Andrew Cornell from ANZ bluenotes for an insightful conversation on the current state of the Australian economy. In an environment with low rates, record property prices and an ongoing pandemic, the podcasts will look at the investment opportunities emerging, what looks to be transpiring over the coming months, and the key themes shaping the property market. Part 1: Michael Wake, ANZ General Manager NSW/ACT Branch Network Part 2: Adelaide Timbrell, ANZ Senior Economist Part 3: Cameron Kusher, REA Group Executive Director of Economic Research Tune in and listen to these podcasts to better understand the surprisingly optimistic outlook and how you can take advantage of these opportunities moving forward. *Please note, the podcasts will only be available for a limited time. *

The pendulum has swung and Australia's property market is expected to be very, very different in 2021! On the back of what we can only describe as “a year we'll never forget”, property is about to bounce ahead in a [...] CONTINUE READING The post Episode 324 | Property Market Outlook 2021 – Chat With Cameron Kusher, Executive Manager of Economic Research at REA Group appeared first on The Property Couch.

Homebuyers in New South Wales will be able to choose to either pay stamp duty upfront or to pay it as an ongoing annual tax. REA Group's Cameron Kusher says it's a significant change to the state's taxation system. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this week's show, Peter Switzer is joined by REA Group's Cameron Kusher, BIS Oxford Economics' Sarah Hunter and Binnari Property's Dominic Cavagnino. Watch the video here: https://youtu.be/38DNJA-vcGY

In this episode of The Smart Property Investment Show, the executive manager of economic research at REA Group, Cameron Kusher, unpacks the latest data around rental markets and housing prices in the wake of the pandemic. Cameron joins host Phil Tarrant to break down the relationship between Australia's property market and global events, the most important things to consider as an investor in the current climate, and the nexus between CPI and the property landscape. Cameron explains how the rental market is tracking in each of the country's capital cities, how property values are holding up through the crisis, and what implications COVID-19 is likely to have on Australia's property market into the future. If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on Apple Podcasts (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you'd like to lend your voice to the show, email editor@smartpropertyinvestment.com.au for more insights!

Can a pipeline from one side of the country to the other save the economy? Also today: The trade dispute between Australia and China escalates Domestic flying will be back on the agenda from July, but expect to wear face masks and don’t expect social distancing And one of Australia’s most criticised companies returns from the near-dead Plus an interview with Cameron Kusher, Director of Economic Research at REA Group, about where the property market is heading. Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cameron Kusher, CoreLogic's Head of Research for Australia & leading commentator on housing market conditions & trends chats about: Why you shouldn't assume ALL property doubles every 7-10 years! Settlement risk - what is it & how it can be avoided? Pain & Gain Report- the impact of a property market slow down. What are some of the weaknesses in Australian property data? What is the most riskiest data to take in isolation? Why access to finance is impacting the property market. Weaknesses of a Hedonic Housing Price Index What are the strongest areas in the Brisbane market? This epic data journey explains the impact of economic & demographic trends & analyses residential property throughout the country. DOWNLOAD THE TRANSCRIPT:  www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/077 Work with Veronica? info@gooddeeds.com.au Work with Chris? hello@wealthful.com.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher shares the latest property market data, Rest Super CEO Vicki Doyle talks about the billions of dollars Australians are throwing away each year and Lifeline Harbour to Hawkesbury's Cutty Felton explains what an 'Accidental Counsellor' is.Lifeline: https://lifelineh2h.org.au/training/accidental-counsellor/Rest Super: https://www.rest.com.au/CoreLogic: https://www.corelogic.com.au/

Our live show in Sydney on November 27. The first panel is THE ALLOCATORS: James Whelan of VFS Group, Con Michalakis of Statewide, Laura Fitzsimmons of JP Morgan, and Eleanor Creagh of Saxo. Followed by PROPERTY EXPERTS: Pete Wargent of Allen Wargent, Joanne Masters of ANZ, Stephen Koukoulas, Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The second part of our live show in Sydney on November 27. The first panel is on indicators, featuring Eleanor Creagh of Saxo, James Whelan of VFS Group, Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic, and Adam Smith COO at OFX. The second is the finale and features a wide-ranging discussion on the outlook with Bill Evans of Westpac, Jo Masters of ANZ, Stephen Koukoulas, Con Michalakis of Statewide, Laura Fitzsimmons of JP Morgan and Pete Wargent of Allen Wargent. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Corelogic’s head of research Cameron Kusher, one of Australia’s foremost authorities on property market data, joins us to talk about the downturn in housing prices, the RBA’s predicament, the impact of events abroad, and all the sport. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.