Hotspotting

Navigating Today's Property Market with Terry Ryder In this episode, Terry Ryder—Australia's leading property analyst and founder of Hotspotting—joins host Adam Horth of Smartre Training to unpack the true state of the Australian real estate market. Drawing on decades of research and market-watching, Terry delivers a clear-eyed analysis of property trends and growth prospects across the country, breaking it down state by state. From regional hotspots to shifting buyer behaviour, this conversation sheds light on what's shaping the market right now—and what smart investors need to watch next. Terry also shares what it really means to be a property investor in today's climate. From rising interest rates and tight supply, to the strategies that still work despite the noise, this episode is packed with practical insights for those serious about long-term success in real estate. Plus, don't miss Terry's top book recommendations for investors and business builders alike: Built to Sell by John Warrillow The War of Art by Steven Pressfield The Road Less Stupid by Keith J. Cunningham For more resources and upcoming events, visit: Smartre Training Programs Smartre's Top Performers Seminars and Events Submit your Field Challenger Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode offers the clarity and direction you need to navigate the property market with confidence. Tune in and make your next move a smart one.

Think Sydney and Melbourne lead the property market? Think again. In this episode, we reveal the surprising frontrunners from the Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index — and it's the smaller capitals and regional markets stealing the spotlight.

What's really happening in Australia's property markets? In this episode, we break down the new Winter edition of the Price Predictor Index — and the results are anything but expected.

Why Moving House Costs More Than You Think Thinking of moving home? It's not just about finding the right property anymore — the real hurdle is the staggering cost of moving. In cities like Sydney and Melbourne, transaction costs for selling, buying, and relocating now average over $100,000. For many, this financial burden is a major reason they stay put, even when their current home no longer suits their needs. The biggest single cost? Stamp duty — a tax often called the silent killer of housing mobility. Why is this outdated tax still strangling the market, and how could reform unlock hundreds of thousands of homes across Australia? Join us as we explore the hidden costs, the impact on families and the economy, and why political leadership is urgently needed to break this costly cycle.

Affordable Housing: The Great Political Mirage Politicians love to promise “affordable housing” — but where are the numbers? Behind the headlines and media events, affordable homes remain an elusive dream, buried under soaring land prices, construction costs, and government taxes. From Brisbane's zoning reforms to Sydney's grand plans, we unpack why these announcements often fall short of reality. Why is genuine affordability missing from the conversation? And what's really stopping new homes from becoming truly affordable? Tune in as we cut through the spin and reveal the hard truths about Australia's housing crisis.

Is Australia really heading into the “grandaddy of all property booms” just because of a couple of interest rate cuts? If you believe the headlines, that's exactly what's happening. But here's the problem: those headlines are mostly rubbish. In this episode, we cut through the media hype and take a hard look at what's really driving property prices – and it's not interest rates. From shallow journalism to economist echo chambers, we expose the flawed logic behind the property boom narrative and explain why it doesn't stack up against real data or historical precedent. Join us as we unpack the truth about housing supply, buyer demand, and the political dysfunction fuelling affordability woes. If you're buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of the chaos, this episode is your reality check. Forget the hype. Get the facts.

How does someone go from trading commodities in New York City to selling some of Melbourne's most luxurious homes? In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham sits down with Nicholas Brooks, Director of Marshall White Stonnington, to explore his unique journey into real estate and what it takes to thrive in the top end of Melbourne's property market.

Australia is one of the most urbanised nations on earth, but how is its population growth reshaping the map? New data from .id reveals surprising trends across the country's fifty largest cities and towns. Some regional centres are surging ahead while others are slipping behind. The Sunshine Coast has quietly become the fastest growing city in the nation, just ahead of Perth. Geelong, Ballarat and Hervey Bay are rising fast, while places like Whyalla tell a very different story. Melbourne has overtaken Sydney again, and a small but booming area in Lake Macquarie has broken into the top fifty for the first time. What do these population shifts reveal about the future of Australia's property market? And which cities could be the next major investment hotspots?

What do some of the highest rental yields in Australia have in common with some of the biggest property busts? In this episode, we explore the darker side of high yield towns and why some locations that promise strong returns can become financial traps. From Moranbah to Port Hedland, the history of boom and bust in resource-driven towns is littered with painful lessons. Why are some towns offering yields above 12 percent while their property values plummet? What really lies beneath the glossy headlines and impressive statistics? And why are so many of these markets cheap for a reason? This episode unpacks the data and the real stories behind twenty towns investors should think twice about.        

Why does it now cost nearly a million dollars to build a basic home in Australia? The latest NAB Residential Property Survey reveals some uncomfortable truths. Construction costs are soaring, government taxes and delays are adding layers of expense, and productivity in the building sector has fallen dramatically over the past 30 years. Yet investors are still being blamed for rising prices, even though they make up just a quarter of buyers. So what is really driving the housing crisis? If you want to understand the forces shaping property prices, affordability and supply across the country, and what the media is not telling you, listen to this episode today.

This was one of the most highly anticipated and highly attended webinars of the year — and for good reason. In this exclusive session, Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder and iBuyNew CEO Daniel Petersen explore the powerful impact the 2032 Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games will have on property markets across South East Queensland. ✔ Learn from case studies of past Olympic host cities, including Sydney, Athens, London, and Tokyo ✔ Discover how infrastructure, population growth, and legacy planning have driven real estate booms ✔ Understand why Brisbane is poised to outperform every other Australian city over the next decade ✔ See the key suburbs and property types set to benefit most ✔ Preview real investment opportunities in Kangaroo Point and Milton, Brisbane Whether you're a first-time investor or building a portfolio, this session will help you understand why the time to act is before the Olympic flame is lit.

Government support for first-home buyers always seems to spark the same criticism: that it drives up prices and does more harm than good. But where's the evidence? In this episode, we unpack the recurring claims that FHB schemes like deposit guarantees and grants inflate property values — and ask why these arguments persist despite a lack of supporting data. We explore how media narratives often miss the mark, focusing blame on young buyers instead of tackling the real issues: supply constraints, high construction costs, and planning bottlenecks. If helping first-home buyers is always the “wrong move,” what's the alternative? In this episode: The myth that FHB support causes price spikes What the data actually says (and doesn't say) Why the supply-side crisis is the real problem How policy debates are missing the point This episode is for anyone who's ever wondered whether helping first-home buyers is hurting the market — and wants an evidence-based perspective instead of a political spin.

After several years of standout growth, Perth's housing market is starting to cool — but that doesn't mean it's headed for a fall. In this episode, we break down the latest indicators showing that Perth's price growth has slowed, even as the state's economy remains one of the strongest in the country. We also look beyond the capital to Regional WA, where several markets continue to perform strongly, and explore what investors should watch for next. In this episode: Why Perth's growth has passed its peak The latest data on price movement and sales activity How strong economic fundamentals are supporting WA markets Opportunities that still exist in units and regional areas If you're tracking the next move in WA's property cycle, this episode gives you the data and context to stay ahead.

Scapegoating has become Australia's unofficial national sport — and nowhere is this more obvious than in the commentary surrounding our housing crisis. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the latest wave of finger-pointing, where so-called NIMBYs (Not In My Back Yard) and Baby Boomers are being blamed for everything from unaffordable housing to stalled development. But is the narrative that older Australians are refusing to downsize or that local residents are blocking new homes actually backed by evidence? Or is it a convenient distraction from deeper, more uncomfortable truths? Tune in as we cut through the noise, challenge the conventional media narrative, and call for a more honest, evidence-based conversation about housing supply, planning, and political accountability. Key topics covered: The myth of downsizing as a supply solution How NIMBY scapegoating distracts from systemic problems Why development isn't happening in many suburbs — and it's not because of residents The true barriers to building new homes in Australia What needs to change for real housing reform to happen If you're tired of the blame game and ready for a more informed look at the housing crisis, this episode is for you.

In this episode, we challenge the growing media and political narrative blaming older Australians for the housing crisis. With new data from Australian Seniors and PropTrack, we unpack why the push to guilt Baby Boomers into downsizing is not only misguided — it's deeply unfair and factually wrong. We expose the lazy policy thinking behind the idea that empty nesters are hoarding homes, and explain why the real culprits are chronic supply shortages, failed planning systems, outdated pension rules, and a political class allergic to real reform. From rising relocation costs to a lack of suitable alternatives, we examine the complex reasons why downsizing isn't the easy fix the headlines claim. This is a must-listen for anyone tired of shallow blame games and looking for real solutions to Australia's housing crisis.

In this episode, we dive deep into one of Australia's most remarkable and resilient property markets—Adelaide. While other cities like Perth are losing momentum, Adelaide continues its upward trajectory, now entering its sixth year of steady growth. Backed by data from Hotspotting's latest Price Predictor Index, we unpack why buyer demand remains high, which LGAs are leading the charge, and how Adelaide's long-dismissed real estate market has evolved into a national frontrunner for capital growth. We'll explore the suburbs showing the strongest signs of continued price increases, the economic drivers supporting the boom, and why Adelaide has surpassed even Melbourne in median dwelling prices. Whether you're an investor or just fascinated by real estate trends, this episode reveals why Adelaide remains a hot market worth watching.

With over 15,000 suburbs across Australia, how do you know where to invest next—and which markets are set to outperform? In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham sits down with Australia's leading property analyst, Terry Ryder, to reveal the latest insights from Hotspotting's National Top 10 Best Buys report. Unlike media-driven “hotspots,” these locations have been handpicked for their long-term growth potential, strong local economies, and critical infrastructure investment.

As the federal election approaches, housing policy has finally hit the spotlight — but not for the right reasons. In this episode, Terry Ryder cuts through the spin and dive into the political theatre playing out between major parties over Australia's housing crisis. From vote-chasing tax perks to demand-boosting band-aid schemes, he unpacks why both Labor and the Coalition are missing the mark — and how their policies could actually make things worse.  Plus, he takes aim at the Greens' rental rhetoric and ask the question no one seems to be answering: where are the real structural reforms? If you're tired of housing headlines full of sugar and no substance, this one's for you.

With housing affordability now a key battleground in the federal election, Tim Graham, Managing Director of Hotspotting, joins Ahron Young on TickerNews to unpack what the major parties are promising—and whether those policies will make any real difference. In this episode, Tim explains why most policies on offer are short-term, demand-side sugar hits that fail to address the root of Australia's housing crisis: supply.

In this episode, Terry Ryder dismantles the media myths surrounding landlords and reveals a far more sobering reality — most investors aren't profiting, they're bleeding cash. With 65% operating at a loss and many forced to sell, Ryder explores why the rental market is under serious threat. From rising interest rates to hostile policies, he exposes how the system is pushing mum-and-dad investors to the brink — and why that spells trouble for renters too. If you're a property investor, tenant, or just someone trying to make sense of Australia's housing mess, don't miss this episode. Subscribe now, leave a review, and share it with someone who needs to hear the truth behind the headlines. The facts matter — and Terry Ryder is here to set the record straight.

Perth's Property Market at its Peak: Tim Graham discusses the shift in Perth's property market as it reaches its peak. He shares insights from Hotspotting's Price Predictor Index, explaining how rising sales activity often leads to price growth, and how Perth's market is now experiencing a slowdown due to decreasing sales. Why Perth Was Doing Well: The strength of Perth's recent growth can be attributed to a proactive state government, affordability, and a resurgence after many years of stagnant prices. Tim highlights how the state's openness to investors has played a key role in this boom. The Emergence of New Market Leaders: With Perth cooling down, other markets are emerging as leaders. Tim explains that Melbourne, despite economic challenges, is showing positive rankings in many suburbs. With a correction in its market and its relative affordability compared to Sydney, Melbourne is attracting new investment. The Impact of Affordability on Investment: Tim shares his thoughts on why people are moving to more affordable areas, not just due to COVID, but as part of a broader trend of seeking better lifestyle options. The ongoing affordability factor in Melbourne and other markets is a key driver of growth.  Infrastructure Projects and Market Impact: Tim discusses how infrastructure developments, like the Westgate Tunnel project in Melbourne, are expected to influence property prices, particularly in the city's west. However, he questions whether these infrastructure projects will be a game changer for the market. Interest Rates and  Housing Affordability: The conversation touches on the possible future of interest rates in Australia. Tim explains that the biggest challenge in real estate isn't interest rates but the lack of housing, which continues to drive prices up despite rate changes. overnment Policy and the Housing Shortage: The interview wraps up with a discussion about the Victorian government's efforts to alleviate housing affordability, including stamp duty discounts. Tim points out the unintended consequences of these policies, suggesting that the focus should be on helping developers to start new projects.

In this update, Tim Graham from Hotspotting breaks down the key insights from the Autumn 2025 edition of the Price Predictor Index — revealing which Australian property markets are rising, which are steady, and which are slipping into decline. We analyse 14 major jurisdictions across the nation — from capital cities like Darwin, Melbourne, and Adelaide to regional powerhouses like Regional South Australia, Regional Queensland, and Regional Victoria. With detailed suburb-level insights and sales activity trends, this update highlights the suburbs and towns with real momentum behind them.

Terry Ryder—founder of Hotspotting.com.au and Australia's #1 independent real estate analyst—joins Ahron Young in the Ticker studio to unpack the 2025–26 Federal Budget and what it didn't address: the worsening housing crisis. From unaffordable home prices and stalled construction to the lack of support for investors and renters alike, Terry pulls no punches as he explains the structural failures that continue to drive Australia's housing shortage.

Politicians at the upper levels of government have failed to deal with the cost-of-living pressures faced by Australians, including all the major components of high inflation such as electricity prices and the high cost of housing.   Rather than deal with the underlying core issues, our elected representatives prefer to wait until an election is looming and then throw cash donations at voters to give the impression of dealing with the core problems.   At the previous federal election three years ago, Anthony Albanese and his colleagues promised to bring down power prices. But electricity costs have continued to rise - so now, with an election due soon, the PM is splashing the cash to give the appearance of action.   This is one of a number of vote-buying measures that are adding to government spending, which adds to inflationary pressures and is likely to see interest rates higher for longer.   And that means impacts not only on families with mortgages but also tenants with higher and higher rents – all of which adds to the inflation spiral.   Three years in government and Anthony Albanese, Jim Chalmers and their pals have failed to make even the slightest dent in all the big issues in real estate.   Housing affordability is the worst ever. Vacancies are at historic lows. Rental affordability is the worst ever recorded. The cost of building new homes is at record levels, with a new house and land package costing close to a million dollars – and over 40% of that cost is government taxes, fees and charges.   Every time a government makes a decision that impacts on these problems, they make them worse, not better.   The Federal Government is now proposing to donate some of our tax dollars to first-home buyers facing that problem of the worst housing affordability ever recorded.   It's had three years to deal with the fundamental causes of poor affordability, including the hideously high cost of building new homes, but has achieved nothing.   So now they're bringing on a cash splash, dressed up as a measure to combat poor housing affordability.    But it will do nothing to deal with the fundamental issue, which is the high cost of housing. Indeed, many analysts argue that grants to first home buyers fuel demand and therefore price rises, making the underlying problem worse.   What the country needs, in times of high inflation, high interest rates and high housing costs, is measures to deal with the core problems – not handouts in the lead-up to an election, which is tantamount to putting a band-aid on a broken leg.  

Throughout the past three or four years of government discussion but little action on the housing shortage and the rental crisis, the people who provide the homes that people rent in Australia have never been part of the discussion.   Many of our state and territory governments have held inquiries, summits and other talkfests inviting many of the usual suspects but landlords have never been invited to the table.   In one state, at least, that has now changed. The new state government in Queensland is showing increasing signs of recognising that investor owners of residential properties are a core part of the solution to the chronic rental shortage crisis.   The organisation that represents investment property owners, the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (or PIPA) recently held a business breakfast seminar in Brisbane and State Treasurer David Janetski accepted an invitation to attend and answer questions.   That in itself was a step forward for investors but also for tenants who rely on investors to provide rental homes – keeping in mind that well over 90% of all homes rented in Australia are provided by mum-and-dad investors, with government and big business providing very little.   Janetski pointed out that he and his colleagues were instrumental in preventing the previous Labor Government from implementing the nation's most draconian and onerous land tax.   And having taken office as the new Queensland government had already abolished stamp duty for first home buyers building new homes.   He told the PIPA audience: “It's important for the state to recognise the contribution that the property industry makes.”   He undertook to connect PIPA with Housing Minister Sam O'Connor to hear the industry's concerns about the imbalance between the rights of tenants and the rights of the property owners.   Janetski also pointed out that the new Government had reinstated the Property Consultative Committee, which had been axed by the previous government.    He said: “We are listening” and commented that the language from the previous government about investors and property managers was disrespectful.   PIPA president Nicola McDougall said: “That's all we are asking for – a seat at the table.”   During the event's Q & A, I pointed out to the State Treasurer that the average cost of the new house and land package was now approaching $1 million and over 40% of that was taxes fees and charges at the three levels of government. I asked what could be done about that.   He said he understood the concerns but he also had to balance the budget, against a background of a blowout in the cost of infrastructure projects, smaller GST revenue and reduced coal royalties.    The inference is that, while sympathetic, the Queensland Government is unlikely to take any major measures to relieve the tax burdens that are preventing the housing industry from fixing the housing crisis.   But I would ask the Queensland Treasurer to consider this: what would happen if Queensland was the only state to eliminate a major chunk of the taxation component of building new homes? What if building a new home became $200,000 cheaper in Queensland than everywhere else?   What would that do to the state economy and to the Queensland State Budget? And what would it do to home ownership in the Sunshine State?  

As Victoria's housing market continues to grapple with rising rents and dwindling rental stock, the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) has issued a timely and urgent plea: reduce the tax burden on rental providers and stop penalising those who are keeping the rental market afloat.  But instead of heeding the call, the Allan Labor Government is doing the opposite—hitting landlords, small business owners and short-stay providers with wave after wave of new or higher levies in a desperate bid to plug a $188 billion black hole in the State Budget. This week, the REIV released a submission ahead of the 2025–26 Victorian Budget urging major property tax reform.  Their request is simple but critical: reduce stamp duty and land tax for rental providers, create incentives for long-term leases, and rein in red tape that's pushing investors out of the market.  Their data shows the consequences of government inaction are already being felt. Between March and September 2024, Victoria lost 24,000 rental bonds. That's not a minor fluctuation—that's a mass investor exodus. And it's tenants who are victims. REIV CEO Kelly Ryan summed it up perfectly: “At the heart of our submission is the need to ensure a more balanced tax and regulatory regime that includes adequate incentives for rental providers.”  Ryan also called for alignment with international rental markets by supporting longer-term leases, which would benefit both renters and investors with added security and certainty. But while the REIV is offering sensible, balanced reform ideas, the Victorian government is proving once again that it's more interested in cash grabs than meaningful solutions.  Since 2023, we've seen an aggressive ratcheting up of land taxes, the introduction of new taxes, an ongoing expansion of compliance obligations, and now—another levy, this time under the guise of funding emergency services. From July, landlords will be hit with a higher version of the new Emergency Services and Volunteers Fund levy—effectively replacing the old Fire Services Levy but applying higher rates to landlords than to owner-occupiers.  This comes on top of the 7.5 per cent short-stay accommodation tax that began in January and a land tax regime that's already the most punitive in the country. The state's land tax threshold was quietly dropped from $300,000 to $50,000, dragging hundreds of thousands of everyday Victorians—including Airbnb hosts, home-based businesses and retirees—into the tax net for the first time.  These aren't major corporations. These are teachers renting a room on Airbnb, retirees running consulting businesses from a home study, and families listing a property while working overseas. According to tax experts at Mills Oakley, even earning just $30,000 from a garage-based side business can now trigger a tax bill that previously didn't exist. The State Revenue Office is retrospectively combing through tax records, hitting unsuspecting homeowners with bills going back five years.  This is not reform—it's a cash grab. And its brutal for ordinary people who are trying to find ways to pay their bills. And what's the government's response? Treasurer Jaclyn Symes—who insiders say had to be asked to avoid using “economic terms” in briefings because she “doesn't understand them”—has arrogantly stated that landlords “can afford to pay more.”  That's the level of economic sophistication we're working with. Look up the term “out of touch” and you'll see a photo of Jaclyn Symes. The real-world consequences are clear. Property investors are selling up, thereby reducing rental stock, and those who remain are compelled to pass on these increased costs to tenants.  As rental supply falls, prices climb. Some renters are now facing $200-a-week increases, according to Suburb Advice. And yet the Victorian Treasurer remains oblivious, insisting it's fair and necessary. Meanwhile, short-stay hosts and home-based business owners are also feeling the squeeze.  Luke Achterstraat from the Council of Small Business Organisations said: “This cynical ‘bottom of the barrel' approach to revenue raising will only punish mum and dads seeking to innovate and provide their families a living.” It's no surprise that Victoria has recorded a 12.8 per cent decline in rental stock over the last decade. Investor confidence has been shattered by a decade of anti-landlord policies, with no sign of relief on the horizon. What we're seeing now isn't just short-term economic mismanagement—it's a structural dismantling of the private rental market. The Allan Government talks a big game about affordability, supply and fairness, but their actions tell a very different story.  Every new tax, every additional compliance cost, and every ideological jab at rental providers pushes Victoria further from the housing targets outlined in its own Housing Statement.  

Australia's population grew by 1.8 per cent in the 12 months to September 2024, adding 484,000 people to the national headcount, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).  That puts our population at 27.3 million, with overseas migration once again leading the charge—albeit at a slower pace than earlier quarters. While the post-pandemic migration surge has moderated, we're still seeing 618,000 arrivals versus 238,000 departures, giving us a net overseas migration figure of 380,000.  This continues a tapering trend, but still marks a major contributor to the housing pressure being felt across the country. Western Australia led the states in population growth, rising 2.5 per cent. Victoria followed at 2.1 per cent and Queensland at 2.0 per cent. In contrast, Tasmania's population barely grew, increasing just 0.3 per cent over the same period. At the state level, New South Wales added 120,800 residents to reach 8.5 million, while Victoria added 146,700 to reach just over 7 million. Queensland's population climbed to 5.6 million, with 111,900 new residents over the year.  These increases represent real housing demand across all tenures: ownership, rental, and emergency accommodation. But while net overseas migration is slowing, a separate but related shift is gaining traction again: regional migration.  The Regional Australia Institute's (RAI) latest Regional Movers Index revealed that internal migration to regional areas, while slowing compared to the COVID boom, remains a long-term structural trend. The RMI shows a fourfold increase in migration from capital cities to places like Bendigo and Bunbury.  Sydneysiders still account for the bulk of outflows (59 per cent), although that share is falling. Melburnians, on the other hand, are rising—now making up 40 per cent of net capital outflows. Greater Geelong and Bendigo are the clear winners in Victoria. Bendigo, in particular, is surging off the charts, with a 63 per cent quarterly growth in migration and a fourfold increase year-on-year.  It's now second only to Bunbury in WA as the fastest-growing regional centre. And what happens when people move? House prices follow. Bunbury's median house price jumped 28 per cent in 2024—the highest growth of any WA regional centre. Geelong's rise in popularity is also pressuring housing stock and values. What this all signals is that the city-to-regional migration story isn't going away—it's simply evolving. And it's not just young professionals making the shift. According to new research from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, older, wealthier Australians are leading the regional migration trend, motivated by lifestyle factors and affordability.  This shift has profound implications—not just for property values but for rental stress in areas traditionally considered affordable. Professor Nicole Gurran from the University of Sydney notes that regional migration creates a “ripple effect”—pushing up rents and home prices not only in high-growth towns but also in outlying areas as low-income earners are displaced. “Increased pressure on housing costs in the regions creates knock-on effects for affordability in neighbouring communities,” Gurran said. “It's especially critical that we ramp up investment in social and emergency housing to offset these shifts.” So what's the bottom line? Australia's housing supply continues to lag population growth. Migration—both international and domestic—remains a powerful driver of housing demand. And while big-city markets get the media spotlight, regional areas are where the most intense growth and pressure are now playing out. Investors, policymakers, and developers should be taking note: this isn't a COVID blip—it's a decade-long demographic realignment. Ignore it at your peril.  

  Australians who sell residential properties are achieving record profits, according to the latest Pain & Gain Report from CoreLogic. The median profit achieved by Australian vendors was $306,000 in the December quarter of 2024. That's the highest nominal gain recorded since the data-set began in the mid-1990s.  But behind the headline figure lies a more nuanced story—one where detached houses continue to deliver, while units in Sydney and Melbourne are still unwinding the damage of past planning mistakes. The report analysed 95,300 resales nationally over the quarter, with 95% of sellers booking a profit. For those 5% of re-sales that didn't make a profit, the median loss for unprofitable sales rising to $45,000, up from $40,000 in the prior quarter and above the five-year average. Still, the nominal gains from resale reached a whopping $35.6 billion in the December quarter— a little higher than the quarter before. As always, the devil is in the detail. Brisbane led the capitals with an astonishing 99.6% of resales achieving a profit. But Melbourne and Darwin lagged, with just 89.2% and 71.7% of sellers turning a gain, respectively. And the biggest culprit? Units in Sydney and Melbourne. These two cities alone accounted for 60% of all loss-making resales nationally, despite representing only 34% of total sales. Interestingly, over a third of loss-making sales in Q4 had hold periods of four years or less. One in four were sold within two to four years of purchase. “Short selling times can increase the risk of making a loss,” CoreLogic said—particularly if you've bought at the peak of a cycle and been forced to sell before values rebound. Yes, profits are strong on paper, but not everyone's winning. Unit investors in oversupplied markets — especially those who bought off-the-plan in the past —are still paying the price for speculative decisions made a decade ago.  And as always, property rewards the patient. Short hold periods, volatile lending policy, and poor asset selection will often be punished by the market.  

New research has confirmed one of the greatest scandals in Australian real estate – the reality that taxes and charges from the three levels of governments comprise between 40% and 50% of the cost of creating new homes. At a time when Australia is experiencing its greatest ever housing crisis - marked by shortages of homes, poor affordability, escalating rents and increasingly high construction costs - it's outrageous that anyone building a new house on a small block of land will be paying a huge percentage of the cost to government. Taxes, fees and charges make up almost 50% of the cost of a house-and-land package in Sydney. In Brisbane and Melbourne, it's between 40% and 45%. Recently published data from the ABS and the HIA show that the median price for a residential home site in our capital cities is now over $400,000 – but over $700,000 in Sydney. The average cost of building a basic house on that very small but expensive block of land is around $540,000, according to the official figures. Add those figures together. It means that the typical cost of a new house and land package in our cities is now around $950,000. It's getting scarily close to a million dollars. In Sydney it's already well over a million dollars. And if you're building that new house-and-land package in Sydney it's costing around $1.2 million and up to half of that is taxes, fees and charges from government. If you're building a new home in Melbourne or Brisbane, you're spending well over $900,000 and over $400,000 is going into government coffers. Think about that. If you eliminated the government impost component of a new house and land package, it would cost around $600,000 in our biggest city. Imagine being able to buy a brand new house in Sydney for $600,000.  In Brisbane it could be less than $500,000.  Remember those figures, next time you see politicians standing in front of television cameras claiming they care about the affordability problems and want to fix the housing crisis. Politicians have caused this crisis in myriad different ways and this is one of the biggest of all: they milk the housing industry for revenue and in doing so, they massively inflate the cost of creating new homes in this country. All three levels of government use housing as a cash cow and they're adding massively to the cost of new homes – to the point that young buyers can no longer afford to build their dream home.  

One of the many ways media misinforms Australian consumers is their misunderstanding of the difference between building approvals and actual construction of new dwellings. Right now, at a time when we have major dwelling shortages and construction costs are so incredibly high, there is a very important distinction between the number of dwelling approvals and the number of homes actually being built. The difference between the two is quite stark and it speaks to the biggest single problem amid the housing crisis – approvals often are not translating into actual construction of homes, because building costs are prohibitive and projects are simply not viable. The latest official figures portrayed a significant rise in the number of new housing approvals – and many in news media completely misrepresented what that meant. One headline by News Corp, the nation's biggest median organisation, shouted: Total housing construction reaches record high on new apartments The article began with: “The total value of new homes being built or homeowners making alternations hit a record high in January.” And that was all highly misleading. The ABS data, in fact, said there was a rise in approvals for new dwellings and for alterations and additions. ABS head of construction statistics Daniel Rossi said the total number of dwellings approved in January rose 6.3% to 16,579, following a 1.7% increase in December. Rossi said: that approvals for units and townhouses drove the overall rise, up 12.7%, to the highest level since December 2022. The journalist who wrote that inaccurate headline and introduction should have known better because the article quoted a senior AMP economist pointing out that there remained a big gap between building approvals and completions, and between the number of new homes and the annual target of 240,000. The Australian Financial Review made the same mistake with its headline: The development tide has turned on apartments AFR said: “Australia's apartment slump has passed the worst, after new figures showed approvals of new apartments, townhouses and semidetached homes turning positive on a yearly basis for the first time in almost 2 ½ years. The AFR quoted several economists at length, declaring that the worst was over and it augured well for the future in addressing the housing shortage. You have to wonder whether economists speak to anyone in the real world or just look at numbers on their computer screens. The reality is that approvals are almost meaningless – many approved developments are not proceeding because they are not financially viable. And that is because the costs of building are so high and buyers cannot or will not pay the price developers would have to charge for the end product. As HIA economist Maurcie Tapang said: “Despite modest improvements in housing approvals, Australia continues to face a significant shortfall in housing supply.” HIA is calling on the Federal Government in the lead-up to the Federal Election to help remove the barriers to new housing supply. And that includes the factors articulated in the recent report from the Productivity Commission, which noted that it's taking twice as long to produce new homes compared to 30 years ago. The commission said poor productivity was largely caused by bureaucratic red tape, cost impositions by government and high levels of taxation – which had rendered many approved projects too expensive to build.

When Cyclone Alfred was bearing down on southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, the impact on the property market was probably not high on the list of considerations for citizens of these areas.   But in the aftermath of this major weather event, there will be some thought given to how home values will be impacted by storm damage and floodwaters.   The reality is that Australian property markets typically show remarkable resilience in the face of natural disasters, whether they be cyclones, storms, floods, bushfires or periods of drought.   Locations with a history of major weather events somehow manage to shrug off those impacts and deliver strong price growth, usually after an initial short-term negative impact.   One of the locations affected by Cyclone Alfred was the nation's unluckiest town, Lismore. The northern NSW town has a history of floods from the Wilsons River, including two major events in 2022 including the record flood in February of that year.   Yet in the past 12 months Lismore house markets have shown remarkable recovery.   The median price for South Lismore fell from a peak of $460,000 around the time of the 2022 floods to a trough of $195,000 by the end of the year. But in the past 12 months, the median price has risen 26% to reach $330,000.   Central Lismore dropped from $575,000 to a trough of $320,000 – but following a remarkable 37% recovery in the past 12 months has reached $505,000 to recoup most of the value that was lost. Lismore Heights was less affected, with values today higher than at the time of the 2022 floods.   Gympie, on the Mary River a little north of the Sunshine Coast, has a history of big floods, including a record event in February 2022. But that most recent disaster caused only a minor pause in the growth of Gympie house prices – with its median price rising 11% to $540,000 in the past 12 months (compared to $310,000 four years ago).   Townsville in the tropical north of Queensland has a history of cyclones and floods, including a major event in 2019 and recent floods in January-February. Yet it has been one of Australia's busiest markets and a national leader on price growth in the past two years.   Houses are selling is less than two weeks and in the past 12 months most Townsville suburbs have recorded median price rises well above 20%, including some like Garbutt (up 36%) and Rasmussen (33%) lifting more than 30%. Townsville suburbs have averaged price growth of 12-15% per year over the past five years.   And of course Brisbane, built on a flood plain, has a considerable track record of floods but continues to deliver price growth. Its median prices rose 10% for houses and 14% for units in the past 12 months, with the median house price now approaching $1 million – well above Melbourne and topped only by Sydney.  

One of the many ways media misinforms Australian consumers is their misunderstanding of the difference between building approvals and actual construction of new dwellings. Right now, at a time when we have major dwelling shortages and construction costs are so incredibly high, there is a very important distinction between the number of dwelling approvals and the number of homes actually being built. The difference between the two is quite stark and it speaks to the biggest single problem amid the housing crisis – approvals often are not translating into actual construction of homes, because building costs are prohibitive and projects are simply not viable. The latest official figures portrayed a significant rise in the number of new housing approvals – and many in news media completely misrepresented what that meant. One headline by News Corp, the nation's biggest median organisation, shouted: Total housing construction reaches record high on new apartments The article began with: “The total value of new homes being built or homeowners making alternations hit a record high in January.”   And that was all highly misleading.   The ABS data, in fact, said there was a rise in approvals for new dwellings and for alterations and additions. ABS head of construction statistics Daniel Rossi said the total number of dwellings approved in January rose 6.3% to 16,579, following a 1.7% increase in December.   Rossi said: that approvals for units and townhouses drove the overall rise, up 12.7%, to the highest level since December 2022.   The journalist who wrote that inaccurate headline and introduction should have known better because the article quoted a senior AMP economist pointing out that there remained a big gap between building approvals and completions, and between the number of new homes and the annual target of 240,000.   The Australian Financial Review made the same mistake with its headline:   The development tide has turned on apartments   AFR said: “Australia's apartment slump has passed the worst, after new figures showed approvals of new apartments, townhouses and semidetached homes turning positive on a yearly basis for the first time in almost 2 ½ years.   The AFR quoted several economists at length, declaring that the worst was over and it augured well for the future in addressing the housing shortage.   You have to wonder whether economists speak to anyone in the real world or just look at numbers on their computer screens.   The reality is that approvals are almost meaningless – many approved developments are not proceeding because they are not financially viable.   And that is because the costs of building are so high and buyers cannot or will not pay the price developers would have to charge for the end product.   As HIA economist Maurcie Tapang said: “Despite modest improvements in housing approvals, Australia continues to face a significant shortfall in housing supply.”   HIA is calling on the Federal Government in the lead-up to the Federal Election to help remove the barriers to new housing supply.   And that includes the factors articulated in the recent report from the Productivity Commission, which noted that it's taking twice as long to produce new homes compared to 30 years ago.   The commission said poor productivity was largely caused by bureaucratic red tape, cost impositions by government and high levels of taxation – which had rendered many approved projects too expensive to build.  

The Great Australian Dream still exists, it's just that - for many - it now means owning an apartment, not a house with a white picket fence. As property prices continue to grow, the dream of owning a freestanding house has morphed into the dream of owning an apartment - for more and more Australians. Apartment living is no longer just a financial choice, but a conscious decision to seek out a different way of living - a more affordable and low-maintenance lifestyle. The percentage of Australians who live in a freestanding house has been declining since the beginning of the new millennium.  About a third of properties in Australia are now attached properties including apartments. As our population continues to grow and household sizes shrink, apartment living has become more attractive.  As a result, it has also become a more appealing option for investors as well. The once dominant paradigm of real estate that houses on land showed superior capital growth to apartments is no longer the case.  As the new edition of the “Rise and Rise of Apartments” report shows, apartment values are now rising faster than house values in most suburbs throughout Australia including regional locations.  In 2023 apartment price growth was stronger than house price growth in 46% of suburbs nationally; by the end of 2024 that was the case in over 60% of suburbs. The report, published by Hotspotting in association with national marketing company Nuestar, shows a growing number of important cohorts are pushing demand for apartments higher - including those looking for affordability, downsizing, location, safety & security and a first step onto the property ladder.  The price differential is a big factor. Even in the most affordable markets, the price difference between a house and an apartment is substantial. PropTrack data as of February 2025, shows Sydney has the biggest gap of 55%; followed by the ACT, 45%; Darwin and Melbourne, 42%; and Perth, 39%. Growing demand means apartment price growth is tipped to outpace house price growth in a variety of locations in 2025, as it did in many places last year. Suburbs in which apartments dominate the dwelling mix are now among the most powerful markets in Australia.  The market share of apartments is now consistently well above 50% of Greater Sydney sales. In Brisbane, apartments account for 37% of property sales, compared with 32% a year ago. But, the most notable growth pattern is in Canberra, with apartments accounting for 47% of sales compared to 32% at the same time last year. It's not just owner-occupiers who are emerging as a growing buyer force in apartment markets - investors are also strong. Apartments offer investors more affordable options and better rental yields in desirable locations. In many of the inner-city precincts in our biggest cities, houses can typically cost more than $2 million, but apartments can be bought for less than half of that price level in the same suburbs, in many cases. The more affordable entry point generally means that rental yields are significantly higher for apartments, a key consideration in times of still-high interest rates.  That's why apartments will be an important consideration for investors seeking opportunities in 2025.  

Brisbane was one of the nation's boom markets in 2024 and likely to do even better this year.   The price data shows that Brisbane delivered a strong performance last year, both with house prices and in particular unit prices – but was third in the capital city growth rankings behind Adelaide and Perth.   Figures from PropTrack and CoreLogic show Brisbane house prices overall were up 10% last year and unit prices around 15%.   In 2025 we expect Brisbane to have another strong year and to overtake those other cities to be the national leader on price growth.   Hotspotting recently completed an analysis of all the major markets across Australia and concluded Brisbane is likely to be the strongest location in the nation for price growth.   Sales activity continues to rise across the Greater Brisbane area, the vacancy rate is well below 1%, rents continue to rise and there is major upward pressure on prices, with listings of properties for sale still close to the lowest ever recorded.   Brisbane is also a standout example of the biggest trend in Australian real estate, the one we call the Rise and Rise of Apartments (a quarterly report we publish in association with national marketing company Nuestar).   More and more buyers of all sorts are opting for attached dwellings rather than houses on land, for myriad reasons including affordability. In the past year, units outperformed houses on price growth in most suburbs across the nation – and in Brisbane this was the case for over 80% of suburbs.   The days when the dominant paradigm of real estate claimed that houses out-perform on capital growth are long passed.    The Brisbane market is underpinned by a range of important factors: population growth boosted by both internal migrants and overseas migrants, a strong underlying economy, big investment in infrastructure projects and major lifestyle factors.   The Brisbane market will receive additional impetus from preparations for the 2032 Olympics, which necessitates major investment in sports venues, transport systems and tourism & hospitality real estate.   The record shows that cities that host the Olympics receive a significant boost to their property markets, but in the years leading up to the event, rather than following the global spectacle of the Games.   All in all, prospects look good for another strong year for Brisbane real estate – and one that's likely to see the city leading the national pack.    

Some investors are attracted to the cheap house prices and very high rental yields in resources sector towns but recent events in two of the nation's iconic locations demonstrate why this can be a strategy fraught with peril.   Hotspotting methodology dictates that a diverse economy is a core factor in any location we are willing to recommend – which means locations dominated by one industry sector seldom make it to our hotspots reports.   A country town solely reliant on agriculture, a coastal enclave where everything depends on tourism and mining towns are all places we shy away from, because their reliance on a single industry sector makes them vulnerable, volatile and high-risk.   This is particularly so with mining towns. Many investors have lost big money buying into booming mining towns, only to see property values collapse when the boom bubble bursts.   Moranbah in Queensland had a median house price of $750,000 at the height of its boom more than a decade ago, but later the median fell below $200,000 when circumstances changed. Prices later recovered a little but today the median house price remans less than half of those peak levels.   Houses in Port Hedland in WA typically cost over $1 million during the resources investment boom but dropped to well under half that level when the boom ended. More recently they have partly recovered but the median house price today is around $700,000 – about half a million dollars below that boom-time peak.   Those kinds of risks remain today, as demonstrated by recent events in South Australia and Queensland.    Whyalla in SA has a boom-bust history with its property market because its fortunes rise and fall with the resources sector. Today you can buy houses in Whyalla in the $200,000s and $300,000s and get 6% or 7% rental yields.   But the recent highly-publicised problems of the UK billionaire who owns the town's biggest employer, the steel mill, illustrates how vulnerable Whyalla is. State and federal government intervention has been necessary to try to rescue the situation, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars to the public purse.   In far western Queensland, the iconic outback mining town of Mount Isa provides another example of the risks. A major mining operation which employs thousands of people is closing down soon, leaving Mount Isa in a difficult position. Local political and community leaders are campaigning hard to revive the town's prospects, but the future may be grim.   A look at the price graphs for Mount Isa locations – which resemble a mountain range rather than a smooth upward curve – demonstrates how volatile this market can be.   You can buy houses in the $200,000s and get rental yields around 8% or 9%, but capital growth prospects look rather shaky at this point.  

I sometimes despair for Australians trying to make sense of real estate markets, when the standard of analysis and commentary in news media is so poor.   Knee-jerk responses to short-term data sets from economists, journalists and often from the big-name research houses create a mass of confusing, conflicting and contradictory commentary.   The commentary around price data is the worst example of this.    For a long time, the biggest problem for consumers trying to make sense of market events has been commentators putting too much importance on short-term results.    Real estate is a slow-moving and long-term business – and data showing one month's change in median house prices is meaningless.   Yet what we have had recently is commentators, economists and journalists declaring a downturn in national real estate based on one or two months of lukewarm figures.   And then, with the publication of the February price data, suddenly the downturn is declared to be over and the boom is back on. Seriously?   The major research organisations have analysts who have been around long enough to know that this is nonsense. I suspect they don't care, as long as it generates headlines.   We have to remember that their motivation is not to inform us or help us, but to generate cheap publicity.   The headline on a press release from one data house on the third of March declared:  Housing Downturn Reverses in February!   Housing downturn? Did we have a housing downturn?   And how long had this downturn been under way, before it suddenly reversed in February?   Two months, apparently. A two-month downturn and then a miraculous recovery! You have to wonder: are they really that stupid?   And what was the figure that prompted them to declare the supposed downturn was over? A monthly rise of 0.3%!    That's right, folks, a 0.3% increase in the national median price is enough for alleged experts to decide that the downturn we didn't know about is already over!   And, behind that national figure, three of the capital cities recorded zero growth in February.   It is perhaps more pertinent to look at what the figures say for the latest quarter – three months of data is more meaningful.   The key points in the quarterly figures include these:-   Perth house prices are no longer growing, providing further confirmation that the Perth boom has well and truly passed its peak   Adelaide, Darwin and Brisbane had the best growth among the capital cities – but some of the regional markets had the best quarterly growth, including Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.   Sydney and Melbourne house prices were down about 1% over the quarter. Both showed small increases in February but it's too soon to say whether this is a serious recovery.   In the unit markets, there was solid quarterly uplift in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth (the unit market in Perth is doing better now than the house market, as we predicted) – and those three key regional markets (Queensland WA and SA) continue to do well.   The key message from all this is that one month's figures are meaningless. They do not constitute a trend that is worthy of major headlines – but that won't stop news media from telling us that the fictional downturn is over.  

Regional Queensland had a pretty good year for price growth in 2024 but I'm predicting it will have an even better one in 2025. There's mounting evidence that the combined weight of internal migrants moving to Queensland and investors increasingly pivoting from Western Australia to Queensland will drive significant price uplift this year. In 2024, according to PropTrack figures, the median house price for Regional Queensland increased 10%, which was well above the national average (4%), and better than our three biggest cities, but was slightly below the level of growth achieved in Regional South Australia and Regional WA (which both increased about 13% last year). Across the unit markets, Regional Queensland rose about 7% - which, again, was better than the national average (3%) but below the level of growth achieved in both SA and WA. But 2025 shapes as being even better. I recently completed an analysis of the major residential property markets of the nation to determine which jurisdictions would likely have the best price uplift this year – and this ranked Regional Queensland No.1 among the regional markets across the states and territories - and better than most of the capital cities as well. Other factors that may boost property markets in Queensland this year include a recent change of state government, with some new incentives coming into the Queensland market, as well as the recent reduction in interest rates, although this won't have any major influence. So, overall, we expect Regional Queensland to be among the best performers in the nation this year. Queensland continues to receive more benefit from internal migration than any other state and territory – and increasingly is being targeted by investors. Regional Queensland has an array of regional centres that offer affordable prices, attractive rental yields and growth local economies – boosted, in many cases, by a significant infrastructure spend.  This is a recipe for price growth and we expect ongoing uplift in many of those regional centres – including Toowoomba, Bundaberg, Mackay, Gladstone, Rockhampton, Cairns and Townsville – as well as smaller centres including Gatton and Kingaroy. Buyers should keep in mind, however, that many of these Queensland locations are being heavily targeted by both home buyers and investors – and they are very competitive markets, with properties selling very quickly, in some cases.

Since the start of the pandemic in 2020, many of Australia's property markets have experienced some extraordinary price growth. Many locations, both city-based and regional, achieved unprecedented price increases with median house and unit prices soaring as demand hit new highs. Where once a million-dollar house or unit median was unusual, that recent growth launched many locations into that club for the first time. As of January 2025, there were 1,194 suburbs or towns with a median house price or median unit price of $1 million or more – 50 more than in September 2024. These figures show that although price growth may have eased in some locations in the past six months, the number of million-dollar markets continues to increase throughout Australia. And there are still plenty of opportunities for investors to find markets that are set to tip over into million-dollar markets in 2025. Twice a year, Hotspotting joins national buyers agency Propertybuyer in publishing the National Million Dollar Hotspots report. This analysis shows the top ten markets in Australia that are “teetering” on the edge of a million-dollar median. They are the markets where price growth has been steady in recent years and demand remains strong.  With that trajectory set to continue these markets will soon breach the million-dollar barrier. They are also strong markets for investors, where rents have been rising, yields are solid and vacancy rates are low. There is a distinct lure to investing in a suburb with a million-dollar median and it's not just the prestige of the price tag. The magic of buying in a million-dollar suburb is its capital growth potential. By reaching a million-dollar median it's already proven to be a desirable location where owner-occupiers and investors are prepared to pay top dollar to secure a piece of the action. Locations teetering on the edge of becoming million-dollar median suburbs are generally undergoing gentrification and have significant infrastructure spending either underway or proposed, which means ongoing price growth. There are plenty of inner-city markets throughout Australia which already have million-dollar medians, but successful investors are those who find locations where prices aren't just rising, but the fundamentals and amenities are in place to ensure ongoing solid price growth and increasing demand for properties in the suburb. It's essential when considering a million-dollar location to invest in that it meets a variety of criteria, not just price point. There needs to be ongoing demand for property and significant amenities to meet community needs, such as public transport, shops, schools and recreation spaces, whether that be beaches, parks or lakes. Infrastructure spending is also important, as is solid population growth and access to good local employment opportunities. These are factors that will keep buyers returning time and again to these suburbs and increased buyer demand is what will keep prices increasing to $1 million and beyond. Southport on the Gold Coast is a good example of this. Within less than six months the median house price in Southport, which was a selection in our October 2024 report, has breached the $1 million median mark. It had a median house price of around $970,000 in September 2024, which hit $1.04 million in February 2025 – that's a rise of $70,000 in just five months. The suburb has achieved 15% median house price growth in the 12 months to January 2025 - and is an example of what can be achieved in the Million Dollar Hotspots.  

Was the Federal Treasurer being serious when he suggested that investors pass on the new interest rate cut to tenants in the form of cheaper rents? Has Jim Chalmers lost the plot completely or was he making a shallow pitch to voters on the eve of a Federal Election? To suggest that investor owners are in a position to hand out financial benefits to tenants because of this one, very small, isolated reduction in their costs suggests that Chalmers is either divorced from reality or he's having a cheap shot at landlords to win favour with renters and maybe a few extra votes. I have to say that the more I see Chalmers in action the more I am convinced that he is one of Australia's slimiest politicians. Has the Federal Treasurer forgotten that this isolated, not-to-be-repeated-any-time-soon interest rate drop was preceded by 13 interest rates rises – and then more than a year of persistently high interest rates? Is he unaware that, in addition to paying the massive hikes in loan costs, which still remain prohibitively high, property owners have also had higher taxes, higher council rates, higher insurance premiums and higher maintenance costs. Properties that paid their own way (in other words, the rent covered all the costs of ownership) prior to May 2022 when the first interest rate rises happened, have long since ceased to be cashflow positive or cashflow neutral.  Rental properties that previously paid their own way have become businesses that lose money week after week. Owners are having to put in part of their weekly wages to prop up rental properties, because the rent doesn't come to covering it. Many owners have sold up and left the rental property business because they could not afford to keep going – keeping in mind that most owners are mum-and-dad investors on average incomes and can't afford to lose money week after week because of the repeated interest rate rises all that occurred while Jim Chalmers was Federal Treasurer. And this small interest rate reduction, which is no thanks to Chalmers and his government, does not change that situation.  Chalmer by name, but certainly not by nature. One of the nation's news media outlets responded to his comments by interviewing small investors who own one or two properties and have been struggling with the high costs of ownership.  One of them said the first interest rate cut in more than four years would save him about $100 a month on an investment property and he commented. “In the grand scheme of things, it's a small saving. Any suggestion that mum-and-dad investors should pass that on to tenants, is absolutely ridiculous. “As investors, we're already paying so much to hold our property. Land tax has gone through the roof if you're in Victoria, along with skyrocketing insurance costs, council rates and compliance. “We get a measly 0.25 of a percentage point rate cut, and we get asked to pass that to tenants. It's simply a ridiculous suggestion, given that everyone who has a mortgage, including us landlords, have been hurt by the 13 rate rises in the past three years.” Couldn't agree more.

One of the most significant housing stories in the past year has slipped under the radar of news media, with very little commentary.   The latest official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that it now costs over $500,000 to build the average house in this country. That's the cost of construction of the dwelling and doesn't include the land price.   Given that the price of residential land is also escalating to record price levels, the reality is that the typical house and land package in a capital city is beyond the reach of most young buyers.   This, in simple terms, is the essence of the housing affordability problem that has created a national crisis.   Australia needs to build more homes – a lot more than the industry is currently able to build – but the obscenely high cost of building both houses and apartments is the largest single barrier to achieving it. The latest ABS figures tell a very sad story. They show that the nation, in 2024, fell 70,000 home approvals short of the target set to fix the housing crisis – AND that home building costs have hit a grim new record high. Latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show there were 170,719 homes approved in 2024, the second worst annual figure since 2012, with experts warning government efforts to address the housing crisis so far have failed to make a difference. And affordability is getting worse, with the average cost of building a new house in Australia surpassing $500,000 for the first time in December, according to the ABS data, made worse by new requirements for sustainable builds. Making a bad situation considerably worse is the soaring cost of home sites. The Housing Industry Association says that surging land values are problematic for the struggling development sector, which is already battling soaring labour and materials costs.   Extreme housing block costs have also coincided with falling prices for established houses – making the significant premium on brand new homes a hard sell for builders.   Housing Industry Association figures showed the median price of land across Greater Sydney now stands at $2,000 per square metre. That means that even a tiny 300 square metre block of land costs $600,000.    Land prices are less – but still very expensive – in Melbourne, where that small block costs $320,000, and it's similar in both Perth and Brisbane.   But that 300 square metre block is below the normal block size. In Sydney the median lot price is $710,000 compared to around $400,000 in both Melbourne and Brisbane.   Add on that typical cost for building a home – and it makes a new house on land over $900,000 in Brisbane and Melbourne – and around $1.2 million in Sydney. Housing Industry Association economist Maurice Tapang said the dramatic extra costs of buying land and building, versus buying established homes, could squash demand for new homes. Tapang said the price of land was now the biggest constraint on new housing construction in Australia's capital cities. PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said: “It's becoming increasingly hard to make new housing equations stack up. There's lots of choice for established homes and the prices have gotten relatively more attractive compared to new homes, and that's something we've heard a lot of from developers”. The HIA-CoreLogic Residential Land Report showed that the median price of a capital city lot increased by 9.2% in the September quarter to $408,160 compared to a year earlier. Tapang said: “Land prices have risen three times faster than the rate of growth in the ABS Consumer Price Index (CPI) and five times faster than growth in the cost of home building materials as measured by the Producer Price Index for the September quarter 2024.”   At the same time, the cost of building a house now averages $537,000 nationally, according to the ABS, following the hyperinflation of construction costs since the pandemic. Add those two figures together – the median lot price and the average cost of building a house – and you have $945,160. And that, in one sentence, is the affordability issue. But I haven't heard a single politician in Australia, at any level, suggest a policy to deal with this ridiculously high cost for new homes. And it begs the question: are politicians in government around Australia even aware that the cost of a new house on land is getting scarily close to $1 million?  

Price data for Sydney provides a striking example of why it's so important not to generalise about property markets.   According to the big-name research sources, Sydney prices grew only a few percent overall in the past 12 months, but individual precincts within Greater Sydney have recorded price growth at boom levels.   Unfortunately for people trying to make informed real estate decisions, economists and journalists like to speak about “the Australian property market” and forecast what will happen with “Australian house prices” in the year ahead.   This is not only worthless information for Australians consumers, but it shouts very loudly that the economists and journalists making those generalisations know very little about residential real estate.   Even data on “Sydney house prices” is misleading and next to useless, because it tells us nothing about what's happening in the Northern Beaches suburbs or in the many locations within the Canterbury-Bankstown LGA or out at Blacktown or further west at Penrith.   Because some of the individual precincts within the Greater Sydney metropolitan area have booming property markets.   According to PropTrack data, Sydney's median house price grew just 2.5% in the past 12 months, but Hotspotting analysis shows that most of the suburbs in the City of Canterbury-Bankstown rose by 12-15% and some suburbs increased more than 20%.    Several of the unit markets in this LGA have also recorded double-digit growth in their median prices.   It's because this precinct is an out-performer within the Greater Sydney area that we have been featuring it as one of our main recommendations for Sydney over the past 12 months or so.   In the Bayside LGA, another market we have recommended in our Top 5 Sydney Hotspots report recently, many suburbs have recorded median price growth well above 10% in the past year – and this includes both house and unit markets.   It's worth remembering that more than half of all sales across Greater Sydney now are attached dwellings – units, townhouses, apartments. The market share of houses on land has been falling steadily over the past 12-18 months and now attached dwellings dominate.   Several of the unit markets in the Bayside LGA, including some that have median prices in the $700,000s, have recorded double-digit annual price growth in defiance of the average results for Greater Sydney.   It's true also of the Inner West LGA, which is increasingly dominated by attached dwelling sales. The median house price in most suburbs is well above $2 million, but many suburbs have median unit prices in the $800,000s and $900,000s – and some of those have recorded median price growth in the 7% to 12% range in the past year.   Again, this is well above Sydney averages – and it highlights the key message, that real estate is local in nature and that buyers should be focusing on the areas that are likely to perform city norms.   And 2025 will be no different.  

The trend we have dubbed the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is one the key reasons we expect Regional NSW to deliver strong residential property markets in 2025.   The trend, of course, is not new – with big cities like Sydney losing population to internal migration for the past 10 years.   But the trend remains strong and has not slowed down or reversed, despite forecasts by some economists that there would be a movement of people back to the cities - with big businesses demanding that workers return to the office rather than work remotely.   The latest vacancy rate data for office space around Australia shows that the “return to the office” movement is not happening in a major way.   The Property Council of Australia, which represents the big end of town including major developers and owners of office buildings, is trying to put a positive spin on it, but the reality is that office vacancies overall are not improving in Australia as the work remotely trend continues to impact the top end office market.   The new Property Council report show than more offices were empty across the country in January than six months ago as the work from home trend continues to create headaches for Australia's big-city landlords.   Australia's office vacancy rate nudged up from 14.6% to 14.7% over the six months to January, the latest figures from the Property Council show. That's a very small rise – but the expectation was that vacancies would be falling significantly by now, as people move back to the cities and return to the CBD office buildings.   In Sydney, home to many finance, insurance and tech workers, the vacancy rate jumped from 11.6% to 12.8%, while the number of empty floors in Melbourne remained unchanged, at a historic high of 18%.   Indeed, office vacancy rates are between 9% and 18% in seven of the eight state and territory capital cities. The highest at 18% is Melbourne which is the basket case among the nation's economies and property markets of all kinds.   The Property Council called for “Active leadership” from the Victorian State Government to turn around the fortunes for Melbourne, which has Australia's second largest CBD, the Property Council says.   The AFR reported that major companies last year issued mandates for their staff to return to the office, but these figures show it's not happening in any major way – and both Melbourne and Sydney continue to have huge vacancies.   The movement of people from the biggest cities to regional areas is all about affordability and lifestyle, but enabled by technology which allows more people to work remotely – which is why office vacancies are so high.   Sydney, with a median house price around $1.2 million, has been steadily losing population and a proportion of that has been relocating to regional NSW, where the median house price is about $750,000 and plenty of regional cities and towns have houses on offer for less than $500,000.   This is a key reason why Regional NSW outperformed Sydney on price growth recently. In the past 12 months Sydney's median prices have risen 1.9% for houses and 1.1% for units, while Regional NSW has managed 3% for both houses and units – with a number of individual regional markets doing considerably better than those averages.   Many suburbs of Wollongong have increased 7-9%, and a number of Newcastle suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices, as have some of the Albury locations and several of the suburbs of Tamworth.   A recent analysis conducted by Hotspotting ranked the eight capital cities and six state regional markets – a total of 14 major jurisdictions – from 1 to 14 based on a series of different metrics and Regional NSW ranked 6th out of 14 for price growth prospects in 2025.   At Hotspotting, we expect 2025 to be a solid year overall in Regional NSW markets – but you need to see our Top 5 Regional NSW Hotspots report to find out which locations will perform the best and out-perform market norms – this year and beyond.  

Prospects for strong buyer demand in 2025 look good, with the latest data released by the Reserve Bank indicating a significant rise in loans for home buyers, investors and businesses.   This challenges earlier predictions of a slowdown by economists, who continue to be obsessed with interest rates as the big factor that determines everything in real estate – despite all the mountains of evidence to the contrary.   Loans to residential property investors are the highest for two years, while loans to home buyers are the highest in 18 months.   The official data shows that, as at the end of December, annual business credit growth had reached 8.9%, marking the highest growth rate since May 2023.   Similarly, growth in investor loans for residential property reached 5.1% in December 2024, up from 4.7% in November, achieving its highest growth rate since December 2022.   Owner-occupied mortgage lending also grew, maintaining an annual growth rate of 5.7%, the highest since April 2023.   These increases have occurred despite stubbornly high interest rates and notwithstanding the forecasts from major economists that real estate demand and prices would fall because interest rates have remained unchanged at those high levels since November 2023.   Strong demand has continued because the national population has been rising strongly, boosted by high levels of migration from overseas; because the labour market has been quite strong and wages have risen; because most people got a tax cut in the middle of last year – and overall borrowing capacity has been pretty good.   In addition to those national factors, there have been myriad local factors which have caused individual property markets to boom.   Perhaps the biggest single factor is that there is an unprecedented level of infrastructure development – over $500 billion in projects under way in the past year and more in planning – and this creates high levels of economic activity and employment, which translates into demand for real estate.   It all bodes well for a solid year in residential real estate, with further impetus likely to come from reductions in interest rates – and possibly a change in federal government, which looks increasingly likely.   But keep in mind that real estate is local in nature – and there will be out-performers in 2025, as there were last year and indeed in every year in recent memory.  

Hotspotting has been forecasting, recently, changes in the pecking order of price growth among the major markets of Australia – and the latest research data confirms it.   Regional real estate and apartment markets are the out-performers in the latest figures from CoreLogic – which also show that Perth is no longer leading the nation on price growth.   For some time now, regional Australia has been showing better growth on average than capital city Australia and the latest figures to the end of January show that this, generally speaking, is still the case.   In January the average situation for the capital cities was a small decline of 0.2% in the median house price, but a 0.4% rise for the combined regions.   In the past quarter, capital cities have dropped 0.7% while the combined regions have risen 1%.   It's a similar story with apartments: the capital cities on average dropping a little but the regions delivering solid growth.   With house prices, looking across the 15 major market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and seven state and territory regional markets), 9 of the 15 have recorded increased their house prices. And, similarly, 9 of the 15 have lifted their apartment prices.   One of the key factors revealed by this new price data is the Perth growth rates are dropping sharply. After leading the nation on house price growth over the past two years, Perth is no longer at the top of the charts.   In January, the leading capital cities for house price growth were Adelaide and Darwin – and in the past three months it's been Darwin, Adelaide and Brisbane, all ahead of Perth.    The regional markets of South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania have also done better than Perth in the latest quarter.  

One of the fundamental factors we look for at Hotspotting when assessing locations is infrastructure.   We want to know that a location has good basic infrastructure – schools, shops, government services, public transport and recreation amenities.   If there is also a major factor in the market like a university campus or a hospital, this can be significant as a big generator of demand for real estate.   In addition is good existing infrastructure, one of the big game-changers we look for is major new infrastructure under construction or in planning.   A $500 million or $1 billion infrastructure project is a big generator of economic activity and employment in an area while under construction – and, with certain types of infrastructure, when completed and operational. And this means strong demand for dwellings, both to buy and to rent.   This is one of key factors that has kept many property markets across Australia busy and vibrant during times of high inflation, high interest rates and economic uncertainty.   And here's the key factor: the level of infrastructure investment currently occurring in the nation is unprecedented, in my experience, which is more than 40 years researching and writing about real estate issues.   Projects under way or completed in 2024 across Australia totalled well over $500 billion, with another $370 billion worth in advanced stages of planning.   These projects include hospitals, universities, airports, motorways, rail links, ship-building enterprises and major energy projects like wind and solar farms.    Partly at least, the level of construction of big infrastructure developments was inspired by the economic damage caused by the Covid lockdown periods and a desire by governments to bring on big ticket projects to generate economic activity and jobs to avoid recession.   These developments can have huge impacts on property markets, because they create demand for workers and for businesses that provide products and services.    And the impacts can be long-lasting.    If a new $1 billion hospital is proposed, it may create 3,000 or 4,000 jobs in construction – but have even bigger impact after it is completed, because there are often as many as 6,000 jobs in the operation of this major facility.   I recently conducted an analysis of infrastructure investment in the capital cities and regional areas of Australia on a per capita basis – in other words, the level of spending relative to the population of the city or regional jurisdiction.   And the places with the biggest impacts from current and planned infrastructure were Darwin, Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne among the capital cities, and the regional areas of Queensland and South Australia. Some of the big ticket infrastructure projects currently happening, with direct and indirect impacts on real estate markets are …   the $31 billion Inland Rail Link, which is connecting Melbourne to Brisbane via regional NSW;   the new Western Sydney airport, which includes new road and rail links, as well as education, medical and commercial precincts, totalling many tens of billions of dollars in investment; and   major new hospital developments in regional cities like Toowoomba, the Gold Coast and Bundaberg in Queensland; Wollongong and the Tweed region in NSW: Albury-Wodonga at the NSW border with Victoria; and several of our capital cities. Many of these hospital projects will each cost over $1 billion and will be massive generators of economic activity and employment, and from that demand for real estate.   It's a key factor to look for when considering good places to buy for future capital growth. A location with a big program of infrastructure developments will always have rising prices.  

Owning your first home might feel like a distant dream, but the right financial habits can bring it closer than you think. In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham sits down with Glen James—creator and host of the Money Money Money podcast and founder of the Glen James Spending Plan. Glen shares practical tips on saving smarter, spending wisely, and investing confidently to help first-time buyers achieve their property dreams. What You'll Learn in This Episode: The most common financial mistakes that hold first-time buyers back and how to avoid them. Glen's top strategies for saving a deposit while balancing other financial priorities.  Practical tips for staying financially resilient in a high-interest-rate environment. Advice for singles re-entering the property market after a separation. How the Glen James Spending Plan helps people take control of their money and get onto the property ladder.  Guest Bio: Glen James is a retired financial adviser with over 10 years of experience. As the creator of the Glen James Spending Plan and the Money Money Money podcast, Glen is dedicated to helping people spend, save, and invest with confidence through simple, actionable advice. Follow Glen James: Website: https://www.moneypodcast.com.au/ Podcast: Money Money Money Spending Plan: The Glen James Spending Plan Follow The Property Playbook: Website: www.hotspotting.com.au Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/timgraham_hotspotting/

In this insightful recording, Tim Graham of Hotspotting is joined by Sam Wakefield, Director of Optalife Financial Planning, to uncover actionable strategies to turn your property portfolio into a steady income stream for retirement. Whether you're planning for retirement or looking to maximise your current investments, this session provides practical advice to help you achieve financial security through smart property decisions. What You'll Learn: Debt Reduction Strategies: Learn how to free up cash flow by managing and reducing unnecessary debt.  Tax Minimisation Tips: Discover effective ways to keep more of your hard-earned money with clever tax planning. Smart Selling Decisions: Understand when to hold, when to sell, and how to maximise the value of your property investments. This recording is packed with practical insights and expert advice, offering you the confidence to take control of your property portfolio and make it work harder for your retirement.