Podcasts about mathematically

In this episode, Barbara and Neil discussed the following: Neil explains his255 method for Facebook and Instagram ads: two campaigns (warm and cold), five audiences, and five ads to systematically find winning combinations and scale.  They discuss how Facebook charges per 1,000 views(CPM) rather than per click, and what that means for setting and spending a daily budget.  Neil shares the story of launching Scotland's biggest health and fitness exhibition, nearly failing, and then saving and scaling it purely through Facebook ads.  They compare Google Ads vs. Meta (Facebook/Instagram) Ads for physicians, recommending Google for high-intent cold traffic and Meta primarily for remarketing, then broader cold traffic once scale is needed.  They cover practical advertising guidance for doctors—starting around $20/day, using metrics like link click-through rate, balancing warm vs. cold campaigns, and choosing a proven ads expert with a strong track record and longevity in the field.    Key Takeaways:  “Facebook and Instagram and Google, TikTok, LinkedIn ads, all the ad platforms they learn really really quickly, and where the the best leads are, and if you spend $20 per day for five to seven days, you’ll have really good data as to which audiences are working well, which ads are working well, which ones are not, and you can start to make adjustments from there.” – Neil Shoney Connect with Neil Shoney:  Instagram:  neilshoneymac  Facebook:  www.facebook.com/neilshoneymac  Business website: neil-maclean-marketing.mykajabi.com  Show website:   www.MarketingTipsForDoctors.com  Spotify:  The Shoney show  Apple Podcasts: The Shoney show  YouTube: Neil ‘Shoney’ Mac  LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/neilshoneymac  Connect with Barbara Hales:   Twitter: @DrBarbaraHales Facebook: facebook.com/theMedicalStrategist Business Website: TheMedicalStrategist.com Email: info@TheMedicalStrategist.com  YouTube:@barbarahales LinkedIn: https://www.LinkedIn.com/in/barbarahalesBooks: Content Copy Made Easy 14 Tactics to Triple Sales Power to the Patient: The Medical Strategist TRANSCRIPT (242)   Chapter 1: Introducing Neil Shoney and the Promise of Scalable Ads  0:00 | Dr. Barbara Hales  [0:00:01] Dr. Barbara Hales: Welcome to another episode of Marketing Tips for Doctors. I’m your host, Dr. Barbara Hales, and today we have with us a very interesting character by the name of Neil Shoney. Neil is an ad strategist and go-to expert for service-based businesses that want a simple, proven, scalable Facebook ad system that consistently brings in premium clients. With 13 years of running ads and over 3,000 service providers helped, Neil is known for turning complicated advertising into clear, repeatable frameworks that work across different service industries. Because, unlike almost everywhere else you turn, Neil does not believe in a one-size-fits-all approach. After managing high-spend campaigns in the UK and US, Neil shifted into coaching full-time and created a library of 36 proprietary frameworks, including his 25-5 method, that helps service providers install a functioning, profitable ad system in days, not months, that they can turn on or off like a tap, whenever they want new leads. His clients span over 62 niches, with 21 of those niches hitting six-figure months through ads. Welcome to the show, Neil.  [0:01:44] Neil Shoney: Thanks much for having me, Barbara. Appreciate you.  [0:01:47] Dr. Barbara Hales: Could you explain the 255 method?     Chapter 2: The 255 Method—Two Campaigns, Five Audiences, Five Ads  1:51 | Neil Shoney     [0:01:51] Neil Shoney: Sure. The 255 method is at the heart of it, just a testing method for running advertising. So the majority of the time when a practice runs advertising through Facebook and Instagram or any other ad platform for that matter, they typically run what I call a one-one-one method. That is one campaign going to one audience with one ad, and there’ll definitely be people listening right now who are just like nodding along with bigger eyes, going, “That is exactly what I’m doing right now. I see it all the time, and what you have in that situation is you’ve basically taken your best guess at every single step of creating that campaign. So you’ve written the ad copy, and you’ve hoped that it’s going to be great. You’ve chosen your image or your video, and you hope that it’s going to be great. You’ve chosen your audience, and you hope that it’s going to be the right one. But with the Shony 255 method, we do it this way: first, we run two campaigns rather than one. First of all, you’ve already doubled your chance of finding a winner because not both of them have to be winners. You can find a winner and a loser, and then put all your eggs into one winning basket. Those two campaigns that we split out-one is for warm, and one is for cold. That’s people who know who you are and people who don’t know who you are. That’s the first step that a lot of practices get wrong. They only target people who have never heard of them before, who may not even be in the market, and yet you could put a very small amount of ad spend behind people who have already visited your social media pages, your website, etc., and simply get back in front of those people and have really, really high conversion rates. The first step there is two campaigns rather than one. The second step of the 255 method is where the first five comes in, and that’s five audiences rather than one. And so, quite simply, instead of, you know, saying people interested in this one thing and taking your best guess, you get the great opportunity to choose five different interests that somebody might have, or five different demographic targeting tools that we can choose from, and you don’t have to be right 100% of the time. You actually only need to be right once out of the five. Now, when we set this up, we hope that all five are fantastic. That’s great for scale. But if four of them are, you know, they just don’t work. That’s absolutely fine. We can turn off those audiences. We found our winner, and we can push all the budget towards the winner. And then the final step of the 255 method is the final five: having five ads rather than just one. And there are two reasons for this. Number one is it’s also great to find winners and losers inside your ads, and you know the things that don’t work. You can turn them off. People never have to see them ever again, and you can push all the budget towards the winners. But there’s a second reason as well, and you’ve probably experienced this yourself, Barbara, and so will so many people who are listening right now. Is that you show any level of interest in something that you see via an ad? You might not even click through to the website, but if you stop scrolling, you hit the see more button, you read it, or you watch the video, and then you start seeing the ad over and over and over again. That’s Facebook basically saying this person is interested in this, but they didn’t take the action that the advertiser wanted them to take, which is to click through, request a callback, book an appointment, whatever it may be. Now, if you set up your ads the way that 98% of people do, a 111 campaign, then Facebook’s only option is to show the same ad to the same person over and over and over again, but if you have five ads, they’ll show them ad number two, then ad number three, then ad number four, and it helps to re-engage people and get more people to take action.  [0:05:53] Neil Shoney: So it’s a testing method to find winners and losers, and rather than just, you know, throwing something against the wall, and it’s either going to stick or it’s not. It gives you a much higher probability of running a successful campaign. Mathematically, there are 50 variations there, so there’s 50 chances to find a winning variation, and it allows for a lot of scalability because if you have multiple audiences that become successful and multiple ads that are successful, then there’s a lot of opportunity to increase the spend on the front end to get much more out the other side.  [0:06:27] Dr. Barbara Hales: What a great idea! So, do the clients get charged by Facebook for someone clicking on View More, or only if they click through?     Chapter 3: How Facebook Bills and Neil's Origin Story with Ads  6:45 | Neil Shoney     [0:06:45] Neil Shoney: Actually, with Facebook and Instagram, the way that it works is you’re charged per 1000 views, so it’s not charged based upon clicks and not clicks and things like that. As Google says, they are cost per click, and you know you’re charged whenever somebody clicks on the ad; technically, Google is still doing cost per 1000 views. They’re just choosing to send the billing notification once somebody has clicked. So it’s smart marketing on their side because they get to say You only pay if somebody clicks. People are going to click, so you’re going to pay anyway. But with Facebook, they have a cost per 1000 views, which is different for everybody. It depends on the ad, how many people you’re targeting, and who’s inside those audiences. But technically, you know, you set a daily budget, so it could be $10 a day, it could be $100 a day, it could be $1,000 a day, depend upon the size of the business, and you’re going to most likely spend what you set as a budget, as long as there’s a big enough audience there for Facebook to target.  [0:07:47] Dr. Barbara Hales: How did you get into this originally?  [0:07:50] Neil Shoney: Well, I actually 1314 years ago, something like that. I started Scotland’s biggest ever health and fitness exhibition, and I came straight out of university. I’d studied sport and exercise science. I always knew I was going to be entrepreneurial, and I just thought everybody would buy into my idea: a huge event at Scotland’s biggest venue, with a break-even of about 4,000 tickets needing to be sold for the weekend. I just thought that everybody would hear about it and think it would be incredible, and I ended up signing my life away with no money in the bank, hundreds of 1000s of pounds, or hundreds of 1000s of dollars, I should say, of contracts to be able to put on this massive show. And about five months into advertising, we’d sold around, you know, 50 tickets at $12.50  [0:08:48] Dr. Barbara Hales: That’s pretty scary.  [0:08:50] Neil Shoney: Yeah, it was pretty scary. We were about four and a half months out from the show itself, and everybody was knocking their doors down for outstanding invoices and different things, and to be honest, going to Facebook ads was like a last roll of the dice. I’d already done everything that everybody does in the marketing space when they’re bootstrapping, which is posting lots on social media, cold outreach, finding email addresses on Google, sending emails to personal trainers and all sorts. No matter how hard I worked, nothing was clicking. And when I ran Facebook ads, I ended up doing something very similar to the Shony 255 method. And I think it was just a bit of luck that I went down that route of being like, “Oh, I can test out different audiences. I can test out different ads. That’s how that feels safer. So I just did that. That was the way that I set them up in the first place, and I ended up spending. I think it was around, you know, like $50 or something in the first few days, and I had returned somewhere in the region of I think it was 150 Or $250 something like that, in sales, and it was just this like penny drop moment where I was like, “Wow, I can track how much money I put into this thing, how much money comes out the other side, and if I know how much I need to put in to get something out, something specific out the other side, I can basically choose how many tickets I want to sell, as long as I have the cash flow, of course, to be able to reinvest into the ads, and that’s what we did. And we ended up not just selling, you know, more tickets, but we ended up almost hitting our target for tickets sold four and a half months later. The show was a big success. We ended up scaling it over the next four years, and then selling it to the country’s biggest event organizers. And we never ran TV ads, billboards, or radio advertising, as all of these big exhibitions do. We just ran Facebook ads, and that was it. So I never planned to teach anybody Facebook ads. I just tried to use it to save myself from a terrible situation.  [0:11:05] Dr. Barbara Hales: Well, what a great story that was. Thank  [0:11:09] Neil Shoney: you.     Chapter 4: Google vs. Meta Ads and Leveraging Instagram Targeting  11:09 | Dr. Barbara Hales     [0:11:09] Dr. Barbara Hales: When it comes to physicians, is it better for doctors to use Google Ads, Meta Ads, or both?  [0:11:18] Neil Shoney: I would always lean into Google first if you’re doing cold prospecting. People who don’t know who you are, because of course people are going to go to Google or AI now as well. But Google’s still the frontrunner by a long shot. People are going to go to Google to find the providers that are close to them for the specific problems that they have, and so albeit that Google Ads cost significantly more to get in front of 1000 people, it’s so high intent that if it’s set up correctly, then you end up getting a very high percentage of people who click on your ads going all the way through to creating a booking with Facebook, the the next best step, or Facebook and Instagram, we should probably talk about them collectively because it’s the same ad platform. The best thing you can do if you’re on a low budget and you’re sort of just starting out with advertising for your practice is use it first and foremost for remarketing, so you can take your Facebook pixel and drop it onto your website. You can also create audiences of anybody that visits your Facebook or Instagram page, which some people may do before deciding to book with you as well. And we can create these audiences of people that already know who you are, and we can advertise to those people. And so, if you wanted to make the best use of your ad dollars, it would be Google first. It would be Facebook remarketing second, and then I would use Facebook and Instagram more broadly for cold traffic as your third step. So that would be once you already feel that you’ve already significantly scaled the first two; that’s where you go to find more customers at scale.  [0:13:12] Dr. Barbara Hales: When someone advertises on Facebook, does it automatically go to Instagram as well, or do you have to request that? No,  [0:13:20] Neil Shoney: No, automatically. You would actually have to uncheck some boxes to stop it happening.  [0:13:26] Dr. Barbara Hales: Why would you want to?  [0:13:27] Neil Shoney: No, you wouldn’t.  [0:13:31] Dr. Barbara Hales: And people on Instagram would see the ads even if they don’t follow you.  [0:13:36] Neil Shoney: Yes, absolutely. So anybody who is within your targeting can see your ads, so you can target people based upon, of course, age, gender, location. Which, of course, location is going to be very important for local practices. But you can also do some targeting based around certain things like their interests, and you know some things as well, like you can target people based upon not just whether they’re a parent or not. You can target them based upon how old their kids are. Like Facebook has a lot of data, and it feels accurate, and there’s a lot that you can do with the targeting tools.     Chapter 5: Budgets, Metrics, and Warm vs. Cold Campaign Strategy  14:19 | Dr. Barbara Hales     [0:14:19] Dr. Barbara Hales: Well, that’s a great idea. When a physician is considering ads, let’s say it’s a new practice, or he is providing a new service or a product that he didn’t have before, what do you advise them to spend on a daily basis for their budget?  [0:14:39] Neil Shoney: So I actually suggest that everybody starts at just around $20 per day with any campaign, and that may sound to some people like, oh, it’s just plain small. The reason I say $20 per day is because Facebook, Instagram, Google-they learn so quickly. If you’ve ever been told by an agency the reason. The reason that you’re not getting results is that you’ve not spent enough, or because Facebook and Instagram take a really long time to learn. It’s actually their calling card: they don’t know how to get you results. Facebook and Instagram and Google, TikTok, LinkedIn ads, all the ad platforms they learn really really quickly, and where the the best leads are, and if you spend $20 per day for five to seven days, you’ll have really good data as to which audiences are working well, which ads are working well, which ones are not, and you can start to make adjustments from there. As soon as you have a positive ROI, that is the point at which we start the scaling process. So we don’t go with the mindset of your budget for the month is you know $2,000 So let’s figure out how much we need to spend per day to spend $2,000 The target’s not to spend $2,000 The target’s to find winners that bring in more revenue than you spend, and then you can start to scale towards spending $2,000 and that that’s the safest way to do  [0:16:08] Dr. Barbara Hales: it. How can you differentiate between not getting responses because people aren’t interested in you versus it just not being a good ad that needs to be changed?  [0:16:19] Neil Shoney: Yeah, well, there’s a couple of things. There, there’s a million different stats on the Facebook Ads dashboard, but there’s one that most people don’t even know exists. But it’s actually almost the tell-all of whether the ad is resonating with people or if it’s a landing page issue, like getting people to take action when they actually get to your website, and that is link click-through rate. So there are two. There’s one that’s just click-through rate, and there’s one that’s link click-through rate. That one is what percentage of the people who see your ads actually click the button to go to your website, right? So it’s not, you know, hitting the like button, commenting, or seeing more. That’s click-through rate. Link click-through rate, however, is people actually clicking to leave Facebook after they’ve read your ad. Now, if it’s over 1%, we typically say there’s nothing wrong with the ads. The ads are doing their job. It’s getting people to stop scrolling, to read, and to leave Facebook. If you’re not getting inquiries on the next page, we then focus on the page and how do we get more people to take action there? If, on the other hand, you’ve got an ad that is, you know, 0.5%, then we’re quite far off where we need to be in terms of the link click-through rate. Then that’s when I would look at the advert itself and say, how do we get more people’s attention? How do we get more people to take action from the ad?  [0:17:53] Dr. Barbara Hales: Are ads best for cold prospecting or remarketing to people who hit my website? If both, how can this be maximized for the biggest ROIs?  [0:18:07] Neil Shoney: Well, both of them have their place in terms of what we would want anybody to be running. You know, like one month after working with us, for instance, we would want everybody to be running both, because there’s your warm campaign, your remarketing, which is fantastic for a small spend and a high ROI. That’s amazing, but there’s only so many people in there, so there’s only so far you can scale with that. And once you’ve kind of maximized that side of things, if you want to grow faster and acquire clients faster, you have to go out into the cold market. You have to go out and find more customers that may be out there. So, in terms of what’s more important, I suppose to start off, if you’re not advertising at all right now, I would say the warm side of things, the remarketing. But if you’re really serious about scaling, then both of them are very important to make scale happen as quickly as possible.     Chapter 6: Small Budgets, Getting Help, and Choosing the Right Ads Expert  19:12 | Dr. Barbara Hales     [0:19:12] Dr. Barbara Hales: What would you say to someone who says to you, you know, I don’t really have a budget, you know, so I haven’t been advertising, and you know, is it worth it? You know, is it definitely going to work, or am I just going to be throwing money in the air?  [0:19:28] Neil Shoney: Well, a couple of things. The first thing is, you don’t have to start off with a high budget, like I was saying. You can start at a small budget. You can see what happens with the ads. Just like my story with the events business 14 years ago: if it hadn’t worked, if I hadn’t sold tickets in that first week or a week or two weeks, I wouldn’t have continued spending money on it. But because I spent a small amount of money and made significantly more back, it gave me the opportunity to scale into that thing. The second thing is don’t go into it without some sort of guidance. And I don’t even mean that you need to work with somebody like me. Like you can go onto YouTube. Like you can go onto YouTube and at least get some tips and direction around how to do certain things, like for instance, some people right now will be going. How do I set up warm retargeting? How do I set up these warm audiences? I’ve literally got a YouTube video inside the ads dashboard where I set them all up. So, like you, you don’t have to go into this completely blindly, even if you don’t want to invest in, you know, courses and agencies and things like that. So do some research. Don’t just throw something against the wall and then determine that it doesn’t work. There are things that need to happen to make advertising successful, but a lot of it’s out there on YouTube.  [0:20:56] Dr. Barbara Hales: As a doctor, if I was looking for somebody to just do it, I didn’t want to get involved. I just want them to do it. How? What criteria do I use to pick the right one? How do I recognize who is you know going to do it for me versus someone who you know read a course last weekend and doesn’t really keep doing?  [0:21:18] Neil Shoney: Well, track records are really a really big thing. How long have they been doing it? It’s a massive one. So I mean, we have just an absolute crazy amount of testimonial videos, and if anybody ever goes through, like, my Instagram or whatever, every few days it’s another testimonial video or something that a client sent us or whatever it may be, and we’ve done that for like 10 years here, just like churning it out. So when you go on our landing pages, it’s sometimes like 120 videos that are on that page. So, like, what type of results have they got for clients is number one, but the second one is how long have they been doing this for? And the reason why that’s so important is Facebook and Instagram are changing all the time, and so if they only had the ability to be able to run advertising successfully in a pocket of time, when they had a system that worked with the Facebook algorithm today, for instance, as soon as Facebook announces two months from now that they’ve changed the algorithm, are they going to be savvy enough to be able to do the appropriate testing to figure out how to continue having their clients win in the new environment? So time in the game is also as important as the results that they’ve been getting most recently.  [0:22:37] Dr. Barbara Hales: It does seem so unfair, though, that you know, like if we catch your game, you’re going to change it.     Chapter 7: Regaining Targeting Control, Video Tips, and How to Reach Neil  22:41 | Neil Shoney     [0:22:41] Neil Shoney: Yeah, they do it all the time, and they’ll always tell you that it’s because they want to help you. They don’t. They want to find plenty of ways to get you to spend more money. So that’s what the most recent algorithm update was all about. It was, hey, you don’t need to think about targeting anymore. Just let us choose the targeting, and we’ll find the right people for you, and that’s going to really help you get results. It hasn’t played out like that at all. What it turns out is that Facebook has lots of inventory for people you’re not trying to get in front of, and now they have permission from you to spend all of your ad dollars on those inverted commas, low-quality leads, if you will. So there are ways that you can take back control of your ads. There’s a button. This is probably one of the best tips I can give anybody on this podcast, by the way, because a lot of you are running localized businesses. So there are two big reasons.  [0:23:42] Dr. Barbara Hales: Okay, because the next question I have for you, so you could put it in there, is for someone that is, you know, has heard you and said, okay, you’ve convinced me. I’m going to dip my toe in the waters. What are two helpful tips that you could give to our listeners that they could implement right away?  [0:24:04] Neil Shoney: So this is the biggest one for anybody that runs a localized business in general, which is when you’re setting up your adverts, and you get to the second step. There are only three steps: campaign, ad set, and, for ease of understanding, that’s your audience who is going to get to see your ad. And then there’s a third step, which is setting up the ad itself. That’s the thing people are going to see. That middle step, right now, it looks like there’s not too much that you can do there. You set a minimum age. You don’t set too much targeting in terms of locations; you can technically set a locational target in there, but it feels like you are being relatively pinpoint about who is going to get to see your ads. But you’re not. What is actually happening there is you are giving face. A suggestion, and that is very dangerous for a local business, because when you say I specifically work with women between the ages of 30-five and 50-five in this 10-mile radius, they can show 20% of your your ads to men, and they can show another 20% of your ads to 18-year-olds and 70-two year olds, and they can also show your ads outside of that 10-mile radius. But there’s one button at the bottom of the page that you’ll see, which says “Further limit the reach of my ads. The wording is almost comical because it’s like, how much do they not want you to hit that button, right? So that they just can spend your ad dollars however they wish, right? But if you click on that button, it gives you the ability to go into everything I just said there: gender, location, age, and uncheck a box that says “use as a suggestion. When you do that, you take back pinpoint control over who can see your ads, and for local businesses, you might even find that it raises your cost per lead. Right, that’s not a bad thing, because what is the point in having low-cost leads if there are a bunch of people who can never work with you, who can never walk through your doors? So it’s not always that it’s more expensive. I’m just saying that technically it could happen, but I would rather have great leads, great quality, my target demographic, than a whole bunch of leads that would never buy from me. So that’s really important. The second thing is for these types of businesses, video is really powerful, and it doesn’t even need to be, you know, really high-quality video with transitions and a filming crew. I mean, it can just quite simply be a little bit of B-roll of, you know, somebody in the practice, which can obviously be set up. It’s not like you have to start recording your sessions, but just having that type of B-roll catches people’s attention. There is a great place for images inside your five ads, but videos work really, really well for localized businesses and service-based businesses.  [0:27:21] Dr. Barbara Hales: Well, those are really both great bits of advice. The next question I have is for someone that wants to take a course from you or get advice from you. How can they reach you?  [0:27:34] Neil Shoney: Well, there are a couple of ways. The first way is to quite simply go to Instagram and go to Neil Shoney Ads. So it looks like “Neil’s Honey Ads,” unfortunately, the way it sounds. But it’s Neil Shoni ads, all one word. And you can get loads of tips there and different things via the link in my bio. There’s a five-minute video that walks you through our whole system and how we work with clients. Or you could just send me a message there directly, or you can email me at neil@neilshone.com or neil@neilshoney.com if you want to sign up that way, and yeah, we can have a quick conversation from there.  [0:28:17] Dr. Barbara Hales: Well, thank you so much for being on the show. I really found this, you know, very educational. I’ve learned a lot. I feel like I know more, and I’m sure other listeners feel that same way. Thank you so much.  [0:28:31] Neil Shoney: Appreciate you. Thank you, Barbara.  [0:28:33] Dr. Barbara Hales: This has been another episode of Marketing Tips for Doctors with your host, Dr. Barbara Hales. Till next time.     The post Before You Buy Medical Ads first appeared on The Medical Strategist.

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.Learn more about OVTLYR: https://youtu.be/TUCbD5KovlcStock prices are supposed to make sense... right? Well, maybe not. In this breakdown, we're digging into why trying to calculate the "perfect" value of a stock can actually lead investors in the wrong direction. From AI hype and IPO mania to fear, greed, and market psychology, this conversation challenges a lot of the investing advice you've probably heard before.Here's the biggest takeaway. The market doesn't care what you think a stock should be worth. You don't get paid because your spreadsheet says you're right. You get paid when the price actually moves in your favor.✅ Why valuation models can fail in real markets✅ How fear and greed drive stock prices more than logic✅ Why waiting for a price target can cost you real opportunities✅ How trend-following compares with long-term forecasting✅ Where OVTLYR fits into identifying market imbalancesIf you've ever held a losing position because you were convinced it would "eventually" recover, this is a conversation you need to hear. It might completely change how you think about investing, AI stocks, IPOs, and even the way you manage risk.Watch until the end because the final takeaway ties everything together: profits follow price, not predictions. Sometimes the smartest move isn't trying to outguess the market. It's learning to follow what it's already telling you.Subscribe to OVTLYR for disciplined trading strategies that actually make sense.

Probably not, but MATHEMATICALLY, they do! Plus, team updates, All Stars and World Cup.

Roman Yampolskiy has spent two decades trying to prove that superintelligent AI can be controlled. He couldn't. I invited him on to make his case. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Roman is a professor of computer science at the University of Louisville and one of the earliest researchers in AI safety. His book AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable started as an attempt to solve the alignment problem. After decades of work, it became a proof that the problem cannot be solved. Not difficult. Mathematically impossible. I push back hard. We go after the Einstein test: can a large language model trained only on pre-1911 physics reproduce what Einstein did with the same data? We ran that experiment. It failed. Roman and I disagree about what that means. We also get into the halting problem and what it actually tells us about predicting smarter-than-human behavior, whether value alignment is a real problem or a well-funded category error, the case for a government moratorium on frontier model development, and why Roman thinks giving an AI agent access to your computer is the dumbest thing a smart person can do. What you'll hear: Whether AI control is mathematically impossible or just unsolved Why Roman thinks all current AI safety work is security theater What the halting problem actually means for superintelligence The alignment problem: real issue or well-funded category error Why Roman wants a moratorium on frontier model development What to tell your kids about careers in a world where Roman might be right If you listen to other people, the best you can become is average. CHAPTERS 00:00 Creating a mind without an off switch 01:34 Solving problems beyond our own intelligence 04:08 Einstein's epiphany and the limit of AI intuition 08:18 Assessing the Einstein test: Why the experiment failed 12:22 Path dependency: Are LLMs and GPUs our QWERTY? 16:10 The barriers preventing AI from solving physics 21:54 Safety vs. Capability: Why toddlers are safe but teens are not 23:06 The halting problem: Predicting agents smarter than us 25:58 The impossibility of a system proving its own integrity 28:18 Regulation: Genuine safety or a gift to oligarchs? 33:28 Is human cognition non-computable? Penrose vs. the field 39:00 Ethical duties: Must we treat AI with humanity? 43:00 From internet memes to monsters: Decoding the book cover 46:22 Customized realities: Can everyone have their perfect world? 49:50 Von Neumann probes and the panspermia hypothesis 55:02 Categorizing AI: The one version that should terrify you 58:22 Pause AI: The movement for a development moratorium 59:58 Career advice for kids in a post-professional world 01:07:58 Cross-examining Sam Altman 01:15:48 Roman's dream debate 01:19:50 Lessons for a younger self Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guest: Roman Yampolskiy on Twitter/X: https://x.com/romanyam?lang=en AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable: https://www.romanyampolskiy.com/books/ My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #AIrisk #artificialintelligence #aisafety #podcast #superintelligence #RomanYampolskiy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Most of us believe the Bible — but can we explain why? This message equips you to move beyond "I just have faith" and into real, grounded answers for the questions people are actually asking.Drawing on science, history, mathematics, and personal experience, this message presents five compelling reasons the Bible holds up under scrutiny:1. Scientific Accuracy — The Bible described the earth hanging in space, quarantine protocols, and antibacterial practices thousands of years before science caught up.2. Historical Verification — From the discovery of the Dead Sea Scrolls to the excavation of long-forgotten kings, archaeology keeps confirming what critics kept calling wrong.3. Impossible Cohesion — 66 books. 40 authors. 3 continents. 3 languages. Written over 1,500 years — and it reads like one mind wrote it, with one central hero from cover to cover.4. Prophetic Precision — Over 300 specific prophecies about Jesus, written centuries before his birth, fulfilled down to the city, the price, and the method of execution. Mathematically, the odds are staggering.5. Radical Transformation — No book in history has been more opposed — or more unstoppable. And no book has changed more lives from the inside out.This isn't blind faith. This is faith with a foundation.

Join Phil Kitromilides & Sid Lowe in Spain for this week's TSFP discussing Matchday 37 in LALIGA as Antoine Griezmann and Robert Lewandowski bid farewell, and FIVE teams are at risk of relegation. For lots more TSFP content, join us at patreon.com/tsfp! We'll be podding there throughout the World Cup! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, we are re-releasing one of our most popular episodes of all time, Why Eating More Won't Make You Fat. Of course, calories in vs calories out matters. Mathematically, it's the most important factor when it comes to losing weight (mass). But, it isn't the whole story. Especially when the goal is actually fat loss, not weight loss.Are you chronically under eating and unable to build important muscle in order to actually increase your metabolism and build?Get out of the cycle of constant dieting and chronic cardio. In the episode, we talk about our experience with under eating, overexercising, stress, and fat loss. We touch on our mission to help people (especially women) fuel themselves appropriately so that they can get stronger, train smarter, and live longer, pain-free confident lives.Grab our reverse dieting guide or our guide on Finding Your Maintenance Calories if you want to learn more about getting out of the cycle of dieting or chronic under eating.Want More?Join our Newsletter Online Nutrition Coaching Join our Facebook Group1:1 Fitness Coaching Get 3 Weeks of Nutrition Support for FreeFree Knee Pain Training GuideGet Hundreds of Movement Demos on Our Youtube Channel

Kaizer Chiefs' current form suggests TODAY's highly anticipated Soweto Derby against arch-rivals Orlando Pirates will not be a repeat of February's one-sided affair at the same venue. Chiefs who are currently third on the log, were annihilated on that occasions. Mathematically, Amakhosi can still win the league title, but realistically they only hold the key to where the trophy will end up -- at Pirates or Mamelodi Sundowns. Sifiso Ramara reports.....

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3535: Jeremy explores how long-term tax strategies can shape not just your retirement, but your child's financial future, showing how compounding, RMDs, and account structure could turn a modest IRA into a multi-million-dollar inheritance. He highlights how proactive Roth conversions at low tax rates today can shield future generations from higher taxes later. The takeaway: thoughtful, flexible planning now can dramatically improve after-tax wealth across decades. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.gocurrycracker.com/multi-generational-tax-minimization/ Quotes to ponder: "The simplest way to become rich is to be born to the right parents." "Mathematically speaking, choosing to pay 10% now on a Roth conversion is equivalent to paying 10% on a larger withdrawal 60 years from now (associative property of multiplication.)" "It's hard to take action when things are a little vague." Episode references: The Economist: https://www.economist.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3535: Jeremy explores how long-term tax strategies can shape not just your retirement, but your child's financial future, showing how compounding, RMDs, and account structure could turn a modest IRA into a multi-million-dollar inheritance. He highlights how proactive Roth conversions at low tax rates today can shield future generations from higher taxes later. The takeaway: thoughtful, flexible planning now can dramatically improve after-tax wealth across decades. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.gocurrycracker.com/multi-generational-tax-minimization/ Quotes to ponder: "The simplest way to become rich is to be born to the right parents." "Mathematically speaking, choosing to pay 10% now on a Roth conversion is equivalent to paying 10% on a larger withdrawal 60 years from now (associative property of multiplication.)" "It's hard to take action when things are a little vague." Episode references: The Economist: https://www.economist.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3535: Jeremy explores how long-term tax strategies can shape not just your retirement, but your child's financial future, showing how compounding, RMDs, and account structure could turn a modest IRA into a multi-million-dollar inheritance. He highlights how proactive Roth conversions at low tax rates today can shield future generations from higher taxes later. The takeaway: thoughtful, flexible planning now can dramatically improve after-tax wealth across decades. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.gocurrycracker.com/multi-generational-tax-minimization/ Quotes to ponder: "The simplest way to become rich is to be born to the right parents." "Mathematically speaking, choosing to pay 10% now on a Roth conversion is equivalent to paying 10% on a larger withdrawal 60 years from now (associative property of multiplication.)" "It's hard to take action when things are a little vague." Episode references: The Economist: https://www.economist.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of the Lloyd's List Podcast is brought to you by Veson. Find out more at www.veson.com/decarb-guide The 2024/2025 P&I policy year came to a close as it always does on the stroke of midday on February 20, marking the culmination of the annual ritual known as the renewal round. The hard deadline is the date by which 85% to 90% of the world fleet must seal its maritime liability insurance cover for the coming 12 months. Admittedly, it wasn't an earth-shattering experience. NorthStandard managing director Jeremy Grose even characterised it to me as – in his words - a low-excitement renewal. A number of clubs have proudly proclaimed health growth in entered tonnage, well in excess of the growth in the world fleet. Mathematically, that means there must be losers among the 12 affiliates that make up the International Group of P&I Clubs. But no-one has publicly admitted any shrinkage yet. There were few dramatic moves between clubs, at least that we know of. If anybody emerged as the winner, it was Norway's Skuld, which picked up business from some big name owners, including SK Shipping, CMA CGM and Oldendorff. There were also suggestions that two British clubs came under a bit of pressure, which may be reflected when they eventually unveil their underwriting positions. But it seems a good time to take stock of what is going on in the sector. David is joined on this week's episode by: Thomas Nordberg, chief executive, The Swedish Club Julian South, managing director, Wilson Europe Sachin Bhojani, associate director, S&P Global Ratings

In this episode we answer listener questions covering emergency funds for higher and additional rate taxpayers, and inheritance tax considerations around beneficiary SIPPs. We also discuss whether couples should rebalance pension contributions, the key steps to take before retiring abroad, and what to know about DB pension transfers. Finally, we look at cross-border pension taxation using the UK–Denmark double taxation treaty as an example. Shownotes: https://meaningfulmoney.tv/QA40    01:20  Question 1 Hi Pete & Roger, Thanks for all your helpful and easy to understand information. I have only been on my financial wellbeing journey for a year.  I work in the NHS and am in a higher tax bracket. I am fully enrolled in the NHS pension, more out of previous disinterest than any actual action on my part. I am single and currently saving up for a down payment on a house in about 4/5yrs. I maxed out my ISA last year and expect to do the same this year; this includes money for the down payment. I also took out a SIPP which I only recalled last year; I took it out 20+ years ago. However I am still waiting for a statement from the pension office before my accountant can work out how much more I can add to the SIPP.  In the interim I have my emergency fund in a premium bond (20k) but am worried it's being eroded by inflation. I expect to be an additional tax payer in the next few years. Where should I keep my excess cash? More in premium bonds with no tax but erosion by inflation; or open GIA or more in high interest savings account and pay the tax? Or is there another option you would recommend? Btw I have £600 in crypto (Coinbase and Etherium) but don't plan to put more than £400 more in then plan to forget about it. It's a tiny fraction of what I put in my ISA. Thanks, Joy   04:46  Question 2 Dear Pete and Roger. Love the podcast. I think it is essential listening for those wanting to elevate their knowledge of the incredibly important subject of financial planning and it also highlights the value add that financial professionals can provide. My mother is 79 and has a comfortable guaranteed inflation linked income via state and civil service pension, which is supplemented by savings (maxed premium bonds & healthy cash savings) and investments held in ISAs and a beneficiary SIPP from my late father who passed before 75yrs old (therefore the assets are income and CGT free). My mother is keen to minimise the IHT on the estate both her and my father worked so hard to create. Despite her comfortable situation, I still have to encourage her to spend and use your very helpful '40% off sticker' analogy on a regular basis. It is my understanding that SIPPs will be subject to IHT and income tax from 2027. As my sister and I are both additional rate taxpayers, we will potentially be subject to 67% tax on any assets remaining in the SIPP if the estate is above £1m IHT threshold. While the '67% off sticker' analogy is even more helpful to encourage her spending, it has triggered some planning. We are drawing down the beneficiary SIPP to fund ISA each year for my mum – keeping the income and CGT tax benefits for my mum while removing it from the double income and IHT tax on death. As part of the IHT planning we are now considering regular gifts from surplus income. When combined with her guaranteed income, the assets in the beneficiary SIPP are more than sufficient so sustain her lifestyle until her age would be well into three figures. Based on my reading, it appears any drawdown from SIPPs are considered 'income' for gifting purposes, regardless of if they come from capital or income. Therefore she could start to draw more 'income' from the SIPP and gift this surplus which could be considered IHT free. Are there any limits to how much or how quickly she could reasonably drawdown from a SIPP so that it would no longer be considered 'income' by HMRC for IHT purposes? i.e could she empty the SIPP over a 5 yr period, gift that as excess income, then reduce the gifts to reflect a different income and or expenditure? While all the drawdown from SIPPs is considered 'income' for IHT purposes, the treatment of withdrawals from ISAs or other investments are distinguished between whether they are actually capital or income. Therefore, we have the added complication of needing to balance the 'income' drawdown from the beneficiary SIPP to make sure she doesn't eat into 'capital' of the ISAs and savings which would then mean the gifts from regular surplus income would then be considered part of the estate again. Our circumstances mean my mum feels slightly trapped between keeping the SIPP (so it is considered income for gifts from regular income but gets IHT taxed at 67%), continuing to use the beneficiary SIPP to fund ISAs (reduce IHT liability but lose flexibility to gift it as income), maybe change the investment engine of the ISAs from a lower yielding balanced solution to something with a higher natural yield, or do something else altogether (lump sum gifts and hope to survive 3yrs for taper or 7yrs). Any thoughts or suggestion would be appreciated. While there are some relatively niche circumstances, I think it covers two more broadly applicable IHT planning considerations SIPPs v ISAs under the new rules and regular gifts from surplus income. Thanks in advance Stephen   17:06  Question 3 Hi Pete and Roger Thank you both for your continued help in navigating the financial maze and I am enjoying the listener questions. My wife works part time and is a basic rate tax payer. She pays into her workplace pension and contributes an additional 15%. Her pension provider receives 20% tax relief on these contributions. I am a higher rate tax payer and I make contributions to a SIPP. My pension provider receives 20% tax relief and I claim an additional 20% directly from HMRC. As a couple, we could stop making the additional contributions to my wife's pension and instead make them into my SIPP. This would give us an additional 40%, rather than 20%. Mathematically this makes sense. We haven't done this so far, as I like the idea that we are equally contributing to both of our pensions, for the future. It also helps keep things simple. I am mindful that one day, we may kick ourselves for not making this simple switch which may leave us with a significantly bigger pot, when we need it. What options would you consider in this decision of splitting pension contributions. Many thanks, Rob 20:17 Question 4 Dear Pete & Rog, I just wanted to say a heartfelt thank you for your podcast and the incredibly valuable information you share. Your conversations are not only insightful but also reassuring as I start to think more seriously about my own retirement planning! One of the things I'm considering is retiring abroad (somewhere sunny!) Spain most likely, and I wondered if you might explain the process you go through with such clients. Specifically, do you have a checklist, or a list of key questions, that you typically ask clients to work through before moving overseas? For example, I've learned that ISAs are not recognised in many EU countries (so it may be better to sell before leaving), and I imagine there are similar considerations around SIPPs/UK DC pensions and other investments. Do you also tend to liaise with financial planners or accountants based in the EU when helping clients prepare for such a move? I would be very grateful for any wisdom you could share. Thanks again for all the work you put into the podcast, it really does make a difference. Warm regards, Chloe 24:55  Question 5 Hi Pete, Love the podcast.  Very informative and user friendly. I have a question, once popular but maybe not so much now and one that will make advisers sweat again! I'm a sophisticated investor (so to speak!), I manage my own SIPP etc and I'm an accountant so I guess I have a head start over most people.  I have a net worth excluding my house of circa £2.5m spread across a SIPP, ISA, FIC and GIA. I also have an old DB pension.  I'm 59.  It pays out circa £6,500 from the age of 65.  My dad died aged 63.  Given my circumstances I want to transfer the DB scheme into my SIPP.  I have two children so would like them to get it rather than die with me so to speak.  The last transfer value I got was pre covid at circa £100k which I know isn't a brilliant multiple but I'm happy with that.  I'm fit and healthy but I'm not relying on the guaranteed pension given my other pension provisions. So, firstly is it likely the transfer value would have gone up or down given the increase in interest rates and secondly do you think I could get a positive recommendation from an adviser? Thanks, Oscar 31:35  Question 6 Dear Pete and Roger, Love the podcast. I'm a bit more of an adventurous investor than you usually caution, but you provide a certain "passive-tracker-Yin" to my "property-investment-Yang". Given your backlog I'm going to ask you a pension question that I probably don't have to think about for 20 years, so you have time to get to it. I worked in Denmark for several years and paid into a pension scheme while I was there. I believe it is structured similarly to a UK DB pension scheme. There is an initial lump sum plus an income for life.  This pension fund is not covered by QROPS, so there is no transferring my way out of this complexity. The Danish pension fund thinks I'll be paying Danish income tax (presently 37-38%), Chat GPT is adamant that I'll be paying UK Tax. Who's right? If taxed in the UK I can imagine getting the tax free cash allowance right might be complicated. Is there anything else I should be considering? Best Wishes, James

Protect Your Retirement with a PHYSICAL Gold and/or Silver IRA https://www.sgtreportgold.com/ CALL( 877) 646-5347 - You Can Trust Noble Gold What occurred on Friday, january 30th in the precious metals market is absolutely UNPRECEDENTED. 'BARK' on X is calling what we witnessed "the first Sigma-10 event in financial history. Mathematically, this shouldn't happen, EVER." Silver was forced to plummet 33% in a single day and at one point gold was down more than $600 per ounce. Any pretense of a "free market" in the United States was just destroyed and the entire world witnessed it. Jeffrey Prather joins me to discuss this, TPUSA and much more. Thanks for tuning in. FOLLOW & support Jeffrey Prather HERE: https://jeffreyprather.com/ Get PHYSICAL precious metals HERE, while you still can: https://sdbullion.com/sgtreport

Marty Bent is a prominent Bitcoin advocate and host of the Tales from the Crypt podcast, known for his engaging insights into Bitcoin's impact on personal freedom.› https://x.com/martybent› https://youtube.com/@TFTCPARTNERS

9.44 warms up at the hot stove (0:40), formulates some full season win predictions (6:47), reviews Trevor Story (21:54), and reviews Brayan Bello (26:54).

In this week's episode, I explain my reasoning for putting my new book WIZARD-ASSASSIN in Kindle Unlimited, even though the majority of my books are wide and will remain so. I also examine the phenomenon of British Christmas chocolate boxes. This coupon code will get you 25% off the ebooks in the Frostborn series at my Payhip store: FROST25 The coupon code is valid through January 12, 2026. So if you need a new ebook this winter, we've got you covered! TRANSCRIPT 00:00:00 Introduction, Writing Updates, and British Christmas Chocolate Boxes Hello, everyone. Welcome to Episode 284 of The Pulp Writer Show. My name is Jonathan Moeller. Today is January the 1st, 2025 and today we are discussing why Wizard-Assassin is in Kindle Unlimited. We'll also talk a bit about British Christmas chocolate boxes, something I just learned about recently. We will also have a Coupon of the Week and an update on my current writing and publishing projects. But first off, Happy New Year to everyone. I hope you had an enjoyable Christmas and New Year's holiday, whatever form that may take for you and I hope that 2026 turns out to be a great year. Now, let's move on to Coupon of the Week. This week's coupon code will get you 25% off all the ebooks in the Frostborn series at my Payhip store. That code is FROST25. And as always, the coupon code and links to my store will be available in the show notes. This coupon code is valid through January the 12th, 2026, so if you need a new ebook series to dig into this snowy winter, we have got you covered. Now an update on my current writing and publishing projects. I said I wanted to take the week off between Christmas and New Year's and I mostly did. Played a lot of video games, saw a lot of family, ate a lot of good food, but I do get a bit bored. So I did get some work in and I'm currently at 35,000 words of Blade of Storms, which will be the third book in the Blades of Ruin epic fantasy series. I think the book's going to end up about 100,000 words or so, maybe a little more, maybe a little less, so that means I'm about 35% of the way through the rough draft. So that's good progress and it's back to full speed now that the New Year's and Christmas holidays are over. I am also 5,000 words into Cloak of Summoning, which will be the 14th Cloak Mage book. I'm hoping that Blade of Storms will be out in January and Cloak of Summoning will be out in February. In audiobook news, Brad Wills is working on recording Blade of Shadows, the second book in the Blades of Ruin series and Leanne Woodward has signed up to record Wizard-Assassin, the fifth book in the Half-Elven Thief series, and she's hoping to start work on that in March, if all goes well. So that is where I'm at with my current writing and publishing projects. And now for a brief digression into the subject of British Christmas chocolate boxes. Now, I'm grateful for all my readers, but I am surprised by how many UK readers I have. Mathematically, it is surprising because based upon which statistics you read, the UK has about 25 to 20% of the total population of the United States. So do you think that the UK book sales would be only about 20% of my US sales, but that isn't the case? In December of 2025, the US made up about 58% of my sales, but the UK did 34. I think the reason for that is that fantasy is generally a more popular genre in the UK than it is in the US. Like numerically speaking, the US probably has more fantasy readers because of the larger population, but the UK population's overall percentage of fantasy readers seems higher. Of course, maybe I'm completely wrong since the US and the UK are very different places, even if they both speak English. Anyway, that was a long-winded introduction of saying that before I started self-publishing in 2011, I knew practically nothing about the contemporary UK. I couldn't have told you if the UK was on the Euro or the Pound. However, in the 15 years since, I've absorbed a fair few facts by osmosis. One of them is Christmas chocolate boxes. I didn't know about this until recently, but apparently Christmas chocolate boxes are very popular in parts of the UK, with frequent debates about the best brand, quality, et cetera and this has been a tradition going back almost to the 1930s and the 1940s. Now, this was only an abstract fact I knew for a while, but a nice person got me a Quality Street chocolate box for Christmas. That's the brand name, if you're not familiar with it, Quality Street, which I suppose is better than Cheap Street. It was pretty good. There are apparently great debates about which chocolate ones are best, but honestly, I think I like the red cherry flavored ones the best. I know not everyone feels this way, but I do like that sort of artificial cherry taste that it has and that sometimes turns up in other things. So all in all, it was pretty tasty and [an] interesting way of experiencing a different culture. 00:04:28 Main Topic: Why is the Half-Elven Thief Series in Kindle Unlimited? Now onto our main topic this week: why is the Half-Elven Thief Series in Kindle Unlimited? Now with the release of Wizard-Assassin recently, the fifth book in that series, a few people wrote in to ask why Half-Elven Thief was in Kindle Unlimited (KU) and not wide and on all the other ebook stores. Short answer: business of publishing reasons. The "too long; didn't read" answer: of my three unfinished series, I determined that one of them needs to be in Kindle Unlimited and Half-Elven Thief drew the short straw, so to speak. What I've realized over the years I've been self-publishing is that if you have a new book that does well in Kindle Unlimited, Amazon puts its thumb on the scale for the book in a big, big way. More eyeballs get on the book. It stays higher in the rankings for a lot longer than it would otherwise, and therefore more people read and buy it. More people get email or app notifications about it. A new Kindle Unlimited book that does well even has a halo effect on the rest of my backlist, even for books that are not in Kindle Unlimited. Blade of Flames and Blade of Shadows had their best days in a couple of weeks in the days after Wizard-Assassin came out and even Stealth & Spells Online got a boost. And of course, the price for this buffet of algorithmic bounty from Amazon is that a Kindle Unlimited book must be exclusive to Amazon. Now, a lot of writers get really mad about this fact, but the truth is that this is how retail works and in fact is how retail has always worked. Like for example, let's say you go to Walmart, Target, Costco, Tesco, or some other big box store and see a big display of Tide detergent towards the front of the store and near the registers. It's partially there because the store thinks it will sell, but it's mostly there because Procter & Gamble paid big bucks to have Tide detergents featured at the front of the store. This is even frequently true when the big box stores send out emails with discounts and coupons for this and that, though there is more of an algorithmic component to that than in traditional brick and mortar retail, since it's very often the case that, for example, from Target, no two customers will get identical offers. Now, admittedly, compared to the kind of draconian contracts between a big box store and an industrial conglomerate like Procter & Gamble, Kindle Unlimited by comparison is relatively mild. Amazon doesn't charge anything for it, and the term is only three months if you want to take your book out of it. The exclusivity requirement is probably anti-competitive, but the US government can't even rouse itself to do something very popular like changing Daylight Savings Time, so there's no way it will address a more complicated and more obscure issue like ebook exclusivity anytime soon. Of course, traditionally in US antitrust law, you only get in trouble for raising consumer prices and Kindle Unlimited is objectively a very good deal for heavy readers. And for that matter, exclusivity is fairly common in retail arrangements, which is why you occasionally see things like special edition holiday themed body wash available only at Target or something like that. Or in the book world, this happens as well, which is why Barnes & Noble sometimes has B&N exclusive hardback editions of various books. So that's just the reality of Kindle Unlimited since the program settled into more or less its current form around 2015 or so. To deal with it, indie writers typically settle on one of four strategies. #1: they go all in on Kindle Unlimited. #2: they ignore Kindle Unlimited, perhaps as a point of ethics and protest of Amazon. #3: they split the difference with Patreon, and #4: they split the difference with publishing windows. Strategy #1's big, big drawback is that book revenue becomes entirely dependent on Amazon, and Amazon's algorithms occasionally go berserk and start banning accounts at random. A smaller but still significant drawback is that you cut yourself out of every market that Amazon doesn't address, which means if your Amazon sales tank, there's no fallback position. Strategy #2 is much more viable across the long term, and I did it for a lot of years, but it does mean you are operating under a permanent handicap on Amazon, which remains the largest bookseller in the US and the UK. The most successful example I've seen in strategy #3 is with indie author Lindsay Buroker, who first offers her books to her Patreon subscribers and then puts the series on Kindle Unlimited. Once the series is complete, she takes them out of KU and puts them on all the other retailers and starts a new series that is first up on Patreon and then on Kindle Unlimited. I've thought about doing something like this myself, but I'm not ready to commit to the extra work Patreon would require and the Andomhaim and Cloak Mage books have such large audiences built up on the other retailers that switching them to KU would be a massive rug pull for people. With strategy #4, the publishing windows, the indie author makes the book available on all retailers for the first week and then switches them over to Kindle Unlimited. I think that approach has serious drawbacks, especially since you don't have the opportunity to build up an audience long term on the other retailers. An overlooked factor in a lot of indie publishing strategies is the long-term effects that build up over time. Part of the reason my books do well on, for example, Kobo is because I've had the majority of them on Kobo for the last 14 years, and so they have 14 years worth of reviews accumulated around them. So with all that in mind, in late 2023 and early 2024, I settled on strategy #5, which plays to the fact that I'm pretty fast as a writer. Namely, I will start a new series unconnected to everything else I've written and put that in Kindle Unlimited. Once it's finished, I will take it out of KU and put it all on all the other retailers and start a new series for Kindle Unlimited. Honestly, this has worked out pretty well so far. In 2024, the Half-Elven Thief series did well enough that it paid for my health insurance in 2024, which as we know, is no small feat. It didn't do as well for the first 11 and a half months of 2025 for the obvious reason that I didn't publish any new books in the series in that time. I had too many unfinished series and needed to wrap some of them up first, which was a separate, self-inflicted problem I've talked about in other episodes. But Wizard-Assassin did really well, as I mentioned above. So moving forward, that's my publishing strategy, and it will have three prongs. #1: Only three unfinished series at any one time. #2: Two of those series will be available on all platforms, and #3: One of those three series will be on Kindle Unlimited. So when Half-Elven Thief is finished at nine books, which will probably be in 2027, I will take it out of KU and put it on all the other retailers. One rule for my Kindle Unlimited series: it will always have to be something new and unconnected to anything I've previously written. No Andomhaim books will be in Kindle Unlimited since Frostborn, Sevenfold Sword, Dragontiarna, Dragonskull, The Shield War, and Blades of Ruin have always been wide. Likewise, Cloak Mage is staying wide. If I ever go back to the Silent Order universe for a new science fiction series, that will also be wide. So that is the longer answer for why Wizard Assassin was in Kindle Unlimited. And as always, thanks for reading. I am tentatively hoping Dragon-Mage, the sixth book in the Half-Elven Thief series, will come out in April or possibly May, depending on how the next few months go. And once again, thanks for reading the Half-Elven Thief series and all my other books, and there would be no point in writing all these books if you guys didn't want to read them. So that is it for this week. Thank you for listening to The Pulp Writer Show. I hope you found it useful. A reminder that you can listen to all the back episodes on https://thepulpwritershow.com. And if you enjoyed the podcast, it would be very helpful if you were to please leave a review on your podcasting platform of choice. Stay safe and stay healthy, and we'll see you all next week.  

The boys welcome comedian Sarah Doerner, for the penultimate episode of season 1 of Dynamic Banter. Video game NPC's are discussed, as well as Horoscopes, New Year's resolutions, horses, and customer service.Advertise on Dynamic Banter via gumball.fmJOIN the Patreon: patreon.com/dynamicbanterGET the MERCH: dynamicbanter.clothingSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A 360-second podcast that's full of the weird, the wonderful, the profound and the hilarious facts of life on earth.© 2025 Jonathan Clemson & Robin Crossman

Even with a 5 bet day, it was still a 2-3 day for host Matt Perrault. Can Matt have a winning week? Mathematically, it's possible. Let's find out on the Sunday episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sarah is recapping Lily Allen on SNL. Courtney Love is telling her story in a new documentary. It's actually crazy how bad the Chiefs season was. Too bad Taylor Swift couldn't help. It's time to whip up those New Year's Resolutions. Plus, a food delivery recipient's worst nightmare, and a game of Dead or Alive!

Vikings fans have a reason to rejoice after a rough few weeks.  Some of the spectators at U.S. Bank Stadium Sunday had snagged tickets for a bargain – there were seats available for about $35. Then they saw the Vikings shut out the Washington Commanders, with a final score of 31-0.Still, the Vikings would need to win all of their remaining games and there needs to be some pretty specific outcomes for the rest of the league. Minnesota Now sports contributors Wally Langfellow and Eric Nelson joined host Nina Moini to talk about what would need to happen for the Vikings to have a post-season and shared the latest in other sports headlines.

What are the odds that one person could fulfill hundreds of ancient prophecies? Mathematically speaking, it's impossible, yet that's exactly what happened when Jesus arrived in Bethlehem. Ezekiel's prophecy reveals a stunning promise: God himself would become the shepherd of his people. For 580 years, Israel waited in silence, suffering under foreign rule, longing for the good shepherd who would finally care for them. The beauty of this Christmas story isn't just about a baby in a manger—it's about God keeping an impossible promise. When angels appeared to lowly shepherds (not religious elites or political leaders), they announced that both promises were being fulfilled simultaneously: God had come, and the descendant of David had arrived. Jesus later declared boldly, 'I am the good shepherd,' claiming to be the fulfillment everyone had been waiting for. What makes this relevant to us today? We still wander like sheep. We still experience pain from failed leaders and broken relationships. We still need a shepherd who searches for us, heals our wounds, and lays down his life for us. The cross proves that this shepherd is willing to sacrifice everything, and the resurrection confirms that God's 'yes' is complete in Christ. As we enter this Christmas season, we're reminded that the same faithful shepherd who fulfilled ancient prophecies is still seeking us, still healing us, and still keeping his promises today.

Why Falcons didn't get it right first time around with Kirk Cousins. Georgia ready for Georgia Tech to bring their best to 'ole fashion hate'. 'Technically it's not over' for Falcons but they dug too deep of a hole.

Jonathan Bailey’s officially the Sexiest Man Alive, but it’s his Lego obsession that’s really turning heads. We unpack his perfect date night and dealbreakers (hint: anti-Lego people need not apply). Ricki tells a wild story from her Brisbane trip that sounds almost too crazy to be true, and in the Glossys, Cynthia Erivo proves she’s built different by smashing a half marathon before doing two Broadway shows in one day. Unreal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

HEADLINE: Why Republicans Struggle to Cut Spending GUEST NAME: Adam Michel SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Adam Michel arguing Republicans excel at selling tax cuts but fail to sell spending cuts, which are mathematically necessary to sustain tax cuts. Both taxes and spending distort incentives. Michel contends that spending cuts are not austerity but reforms that improve lives, referencing how 1990s welfare reforms helped people exit poverty.

In this episode, Junior breaks down the mathematical precision behind successful manifestation — offering a practical, step-by-step process you can apply to create your ideal reality.It all begins with clarity: knowing exactly what you want. Without clarity, there's no target for your subconscious to lock onto. Once you're clear, the next element is focus. Wherever you place focused attention, energy intensifies — and with practice, focused intention becomes second nature.Step two is intention. Ask yourself: Why do I want this? What's the motivation behind my actions? Your subconscious needs that direction to work efficiently. Finally, you need emotion — the fuel behind your intention. When emotion and intention align, manifestation becomes inevitable.Junior reminds us that manifestation doesn't require belief — it's always happening, whether you're aware of it or not. The real power comes when you deliberately take control of the process by reprogramming your subconscious mind. That's when life becomes not only controllable but predictable.If you feel like life is happening to you instead of for you, you may be caught in a victim mentality. Junior shows you how to shift out of that mindset and step into your role as a conscious creator.Need support on your journey? Visit www.hereforyoulifecoaching.com or reach out directly to junior@hereforyoulifecoaching.com.Here For You Life Coaching is a Voicemaster Enterprises LLC company. © 2025 All rights reserved.

The Padres finally beat a winning team on Wednesday and remain two games out of the NL West lead. Mathematically, it would be incredibly difficult for the Padres to win the division. The overreaction to the Chargers' 2-0 start is reaching new levels. SDSU is finally doing things to get people to their games. NFL week 3 headlines.Support the show: http://kaplanandcrew.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Padres finally beat a winning team on Wednesday and remain two games out of the NL West lead. Mathematically, it would be incredibly difficult for the Padres to win the division. The overreaction to the Chargers' 2-0 start is reaching new levels. SDSU is finally doing things to get people to their games. NFL week 3 headlines.Support the show: http://kaplanandcrew.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“You don't know who your bank is in bed with,” says Mitch Vexler, whistleblower and expert on property valuations. In this second interview with Daniela Cambone, Vexler explains how inflated property appraisals fuel massive school bond debt and overtax communities. “Mathematically, there are $5.1 trillion in school bonds that are already outstanding,” he says. “If you add in what's hidden, the exposure could be as high as $17.1 trillion.”Vexler also warns of fallout spreading far beyond homeowners: “So you end up in the exact same position where I wouldn't quite call it 70% credit risk, but I would certainly call it close to 50 to 60% credit risk with regard to your retail tenants.”Learn more about Mitch's work here: https://www.mockingbirdproperties.com/✅ FREE RESOURCESDownload The Private Wealth Playbook — a data-backed guide to strategically acquiring gold and silver for maximum protection, privacy, and performance. Plus, get Daniela Cambone's Top 10 Lessons to safeguard your wealth (FREE)

Oil prices have been trading at a premium to fair value over the last two months with Brent's outperformance driven not by geopolitical factors but rather by an lopsided build in global inventories,  with China accounting for two-thirds of the increase. While OECD inventories remain the primary driver in our pricing model, only 25% of this year's global stock build has entered OECD storage, compared to the historical average of 40%, creating a valuation challenge. Mathematically, lower OECD intake raises Brent's fair value, even as global stocks build, resulting in a storage premium. Looking ahead to 2H25, the key questions are how much spare storage capacity China has—currently about 600 million barrels—and whether China will use excess crude to ramp up processing and export more refined products. For now, stock builds are likely to continue outside price-setting Western markets, and despite higher refinery runs, Chinese product exports remain below last year's levels as domestic inventories are replenished. Still, given the market's move toward a sizable surplus and ongoing uncertainty around both the scale and drivers of China's stock build, we are maintaining our current price forecasts.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on September 5, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5066258-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.This isn't just another trading video — this is the wake-up call most retail traders never get until it's too late.If you've ever blown up a trading account, wondered why you keep losing even with high win rates, or felt like you're “almost there” but something's missing… this lesson is for you.We're breaking down the most critical skill in all of trading: risk management and position sizing. Inside this video, you'll discover:➡️ Why most traders lose in the first 90 days (and how to avoid it)➡️ How to use position sizing formulas based on ATR to protect your capital➡️ What a 50% loss really costs you (hint: it's way more than 50%)➡️ Why expectancy math is the secret weapon of professional traders➡️ The danger of high win-rate strategies with poor risk/reward➡️ How options trading can reduce risk when used correctly➡️ Real data simulations that show worst-case profit scenariosThis is where OVTLYR flips the script. The typical trader focuses on chasing gains, trying to pick the next moonshot. But the smart ones? They're managing risk like pros, testing strategies with data, and building plans that work even when the market doesn't.You'll see real backtesting examples, strategy simulations, and lessons on how to use volatility to your advantage. Whether you're trading stocks or options, this video shows you how to reduce exposure while increasing potential, one trade at a time.Forget hype. This is about building trading strategies that actually work, backed by data, logic, and a real understanding of how markets move. Because at the end of the day, if your worst-case scenario still makes money — you're doing it right.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

Summer pod has come early as the sun is shining and the Premier League is basically over once again.Any hopes of Saka's comeback goal against Fulham sparking some kind of title race chances for Arsenal were dashed just 24 hours later as Liverpool beat Everton in another Merseyside derby to extend their lead at the top.The heads of Carabao marketing must have looked on in glee as 100's of thousands lined the streets in Newcastle's first trophy parade in 70 odd years, but where oh where could the Geordies go to keep the party rolling?Things are going well for Aston Villa as their new superstars score for fun while they are going deep in the Champions League. But..is it too good to be true?Nottingham Forest beat Man United 1-0 thanks to a great goal from another player in a long line of players currently thriving away from their former club - Anthony Elanga. And in their time of need who did Man United turn to? Why Harry Maguire again of course.Support the showWant to support us and also get some sweet bonus exclusive pods? Head to patreon.com/nononsensepod where you can get access to:* Weekly Bonus Episodes! Midweek games, European games, it's all there folks!* A 20+ episode mini-pod called After The Nonsense where we chat everything except football* A full archive of all our bonus content in one handy to find spot!Retro Kits!Want a retro kit to show off your ball knowledge. Use this link and support the show!Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to youhttps://www.classicfootballshirts.co.uk/?ref=nwuyn2q&cid=

Host Alex Pierson is joined by the one and only, Tom Korski, the Managing Editor of Blacklock's Reporter to talk about the big stories on Parliament hill, like why cabinet will NEVER be able to meet its housing affordability target. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of the "Chicken Dinner" podcast, Sam Panayotovich discusses Super Bowl LIX betting props and early thoughts on Chiefs-Eagles next Sunday in New Orleans. Special guests BeefLoaf and Chorizy-E from The 108 join the show. SUBSCRIBE! Apple, Spotify and all other podcast platformsFOLLOW! X @chickenxdinner | IG and YT @betchickendinner

In this episode of Beer and Money, Ryan Burklo and Alex Collins discuss the often misunderstood concept of recovery rates in investing, particularly after market downturns. They explore the mathematical realities of recovering from losses, the importance of strategic retirement planning, and the need for a balanced approach to investing that includes both market and non-market assets. The conversation aims to debunk common myths about rate of return and emphasizes the significance of cash flow in retirement planning. Check out our website:  beerandmoney.net For a quick assessment of your current financial life go to: https://www.livingbalancesheet.com/lbsVision/lite/RyanBurklo Takeaways We often underestimate the impact of market losses on retirement planning. To recover from a 22% loss, you need more than a 22% gain. Mathematically, recovering from losses is more complex than it seems. Investors should consider both market and non-market assets for retirement. Cash flow is crucial for retirement, not just rate of return. Planning for retirement requires understanding recovery rates. Market downturns can significantly affect retirement timelines. Diversifying investments can provide more flexibility in retirement. It's essential to control your retirement timing, not just rely on market performance. Understanding financial planning can help mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Recovery Rates in Investing 02:22 Understanding Market Downturns and Recovery Rates 10:01 Strategies for Retirement Planning Post-Loss 14:56 Debunking Myths About Rate of Return and Cash Flow    

Join Bill Bellows and Andrew Stotz as they discuss what actions (or inactions) make us worse than thieves and how that relates to expiration dates, and acceptability vs desirability. Plus, stories about job swapping, Achieving Competitive Excellence, and birthdays. TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.3 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm continuing my discussion with Bill Bellows, who has spent 31 years helping people apply Dr. Deming's ideas to become aware of how their thinking is holding them back from their biggest opportunities. Today is Episode 9, and it's entitled "Worse Than a Thief." Bill, take it away.   0:00:27.2 Bill Bellows: Welcome, Andrew. I haven't seen you in a while, and great to be back.   0:00:29.1 AS: It's been a while.   0:00:32.0 BB: Here we are. Episode 9 already. Gosh, [chuckle] time flies when we're having fun. First, let me say a shout out to people who are reaching out to me on LinkedIn. I spoke with another one of them this afternoon. It's always exciting to connect with them. And then I ideally connect in a regular basis and help them as best I can, and learn from them as best I can.   0:01:03.0 AS: Yep.   0:01:03.2 BB: So, for those who are thinking about it, they keep hearing you say, "Hey, you know how to reach Bill? Find him on LinkedIn." So, a reminder for those who are waiting for a nudge, here's a nudge. So, "Worse than a thief" is an expression that Dr. Taguchi used when he say, Andrew, "Don't be worse than a thief." And we'll get to that, but let me just give our audience some context on that.   0:01:37.8 AS: Yep.   0:01:39.0 BB: Dr. Taguchi would say... And actually, I don't know if Dr. Taguchi explained it. Someone explained it to me this way. He said a thief could be someone who steals your wallet, finds $20; which means they're up 20, you're down 20; which people refer to as "zero sum gain." Right? So, the thief's gain is my loss, zero sum. What could be worse than that? Well, "worse than a thief" would be a situation where what someone gains is nothing compared to what I lose. A simple example is, [chuckle] I'm not the only one who does this, but if I'm going to the supermarket and I get out of the car and I see a nail in the parking lot or a piece of glass in the parking lot on my way in. So, I'm not talking about walking all around the parking lot. I'm talking about if on my way into the store I see a nail, something that could puncture a foot, a tire, and I spend a few seconds to pick it up, throw it in the trash can right by the door, then my theory is the reason I do that, the reason others do that, is the belief that that little bit of time that I am spending doing that could potentially save someone far more than the few seconds it took me.   0:03:20.9 BB: Well, "worse than a thief" would be, I see that broken bottle, let's say a bunch of shards of glass. And having worked at my father's gas station, I've seen... A nail on a tire is one thing. Nail creates a puncture. A piece of glass in a tire creates a fracture. A piece of glass can destroy a tire 'cause you get a crack and it spreads, and that's hard to repair. A puncture with a nail, yeah, it's inconvenient, but that doesn't destroy the tire. So, I'm overly sensitive when I see pieces of glass in a parking lot, that that could ruin a tire.   0:04:04.8 AS: And ruin a day.   0:04:06.2 BB: Ruin a day, oh yeah. And so the idea is that for someone to not take the time, and the time they save cost you more than they saved, that's worse than a thief.   0:04:19.8 AS: Right.   0:04:20.0 BB: So, if I meet a set of requirements, leave the bowling ball in the doorway, deliver minimally, but in the world of acceptability, what do we call that, Andrew? It's good.   0:04:35.3 AS: It's good.   0:04:36.0 BB: Right? It's good. It's just within requirements, but good.   0:04:41.8 AS: It's not beyond looking good.   0:04:43.9 BB: And forget about beyond looking good; this is looking good. So, I leave the bowling ball in the doorway. I deliver to you the absolute minimum, which is still good. So, your response to that, Andrew, is, "Thank you, Bill." [chuckle]   0:05:00.0 AS: Yeah.   0:05:00.1 BB: And I'm not saying you know what I did, but let's say the situation where I am unaware of the loss function. I'm unaware that what I'm doing is make making your life worse.   0:05:12.2 AS: Right.   0:05:13.3 BB: But the idea is that my shortcut to deliver the D minus; D minus, minus, minus, minus, minus. 'Cause that's still not an F. What Taguchi is talking about is that the amount of resources I save, may be a fraction of what it cost you in terms of extra effort to use it. So, my savings of an hour, a minute, a second causing you far more than I saved, is worse than a thief. But in the world of acceptability, there is no such thing. In the world of acceptability, a little bit within requirements on the low side, a little bit within requirements on the high side, it's all the same. Again, there may be a situation where if you're putting a shelf on a piece of wood on a wall as a shelf and it's a little bit longer, a little bit long on either side, that may not have an impact; may not be touching anything on either side. It doesn't have to fit in.   0:06:25.9 BB: Now, this past weekend, our son and I were installing a new floor at our daughter's condo, and we wanted the pieces to fit in-between other pieces and this laminate floor which is a [chuckle] lot of work. Our son is turning into quite the artist when it comes to woodworking and things. But it's very precise getting things just right, just right, just right. And that attention to detail, that attention to making sure the gaps are just right, minding the gap and not the part. And there were pieces of this floor that he was trying to install. And it was driving him nuts, and finally... He's trying to figure it out and he finally figured it out what was going on. 'Cause he wanted that floor and the spacing between not just to meet requirements [chuckle] not that our daughter gave him and set the requirement, but he wanted the floor in those gaps to be invisible. He wanted things to... Right? He had a higher level, a higher standard.   0:07:25.3 BB: Now, this is the same kid who when he was 13 left the bowling ball in the doorway. But I would've done that. You would've done that. So, anyway, that's the difference between... Another reminder of, one, the difference between acceptability and desirability. But to add to this idea of "worse than a thief," embedded in the concept of desirability is not to be worse than a thief, is to understand the consequences of your action on others, and the amount of time and your decision on how you deliver it and how you meet the requirements. The idea is that, the less time you take in order to save at your end might be causing the person downstream in your organization more than you're saving.   0:08:22.8 AS: In other words, something small, you could adjust something small that would have a huge impact down the line, and you just didn't... You don't know about it.   0:08:32.2 BB: Again, that's why I go back to the nail in the parking lot. To not pick up the nail could cause someone so much more than the few seconds you didn't spend. But again, that could be...   [overlapping conversation]   0:08:44.0 AS: And one of the things that makes it easier or better for a working environment is you know your downstream.   0:08:51.8 BB: Yes.   0:08:51.8 AS: When you're walking in the parking lot, you don't know your downstream; it's just anybody generally, and hopefully I've stopped something from happening here, but you're never gonna know and all that. But with a business, you know your downstream, you know your upstream, and that communication can produce a really, really exciting result because you can see it and feel it.   0:09:11.8 BB: Well, and thank you for bringing that up, because I've got notes from... Since the last time we met, I keep a file for the next sessions we're gonna do. And so as things, ideas come up from people that I'm meeting on LinkedIn or elsewhere, then I, "Oh, let me throw that in." And so I throw it into a Word file for the next time. And so somewhere, I can't remember who, but since the last time we spoke, someone shared with me... Hold on, let me find it here. Okay. In their organization, they do staff rotation. They move people around in their organization. And the question had to do with, "Isn't that what Dr. Deming would promote? Is having people move around the organization?" And I said... Hold on, I gotta sneeze. I said, "Well, if I am the person that makes the parts that you have to assemble, and I make them just within requirements unaware of the downstream impact... " I don't know where they are within the requirements, let's say.   0:10:30.0 BB: All I know is that they're acceptable. I machine it, I measure it, the inspection says it's good, I don't know where within it's good. I don't know. So, I'm unaware. All I know is that it met the requirements. And I hand off to you on a regular basis, and then the boss comes along and says, "Bill, I wanna have you go do Andrew's job." So, now, I'm on the receiving end. And maybe you are upstream doing what I used to do. And you are likewise unaware that... You don't know that you're delivering acceptability. All you know is all the parts you deliver are good. You're trained the same way I'm trained, I'm doing your job. Does that change anything? [chuckle] If I take on your job and let's say, banging it together, whereas the week before you were banging it together, does that rotation create the conversation?   0:11:27.2 AS: So, you're saying rotation for the sake of rotation is not necessarily valuable if in fact, what could be more value is just the two of us sitting down and saying, "So what is it that you're doing with yours and what do you need?" and maybe visiting the other side or something like that.   0:11:44.9 BB: My point is, until the thought occurs to either one of us on the distinction between acceptable and desirable, neither one of us is the wiser as to why we do what we do. So, having people move around the organization and take on different roles, absent an understanding of this contrast, absent an understanding of what Dr. Deming is talking about, which includes these distinctions, that's not gonna do anything.   0:12:16.0 AS: Right.   0:12:16.8 BB: I would say it's a nice idea, and you hear about that all the time about oh the CEO's gonna go work at the front desk. But if the CEO goes to the front desk, again, unless he or she has a sense of what could be, that things could be smoother than what they are because of where they've worked before and it's so much smoother over there, that could lead to why at the Atlanta office does it take so much longer than the LA office. Now I'm beginning to wonder what might be causing that difference. But if I just take on your job for the first time, or if you and I every other week change jobs. So, I'm doing your job, we are both doing assembly, we're both making the parts. Absent an understanding of the contrast between a Deming environment or a non-Deming environment, which would include an appreciation of what Dr. Deming would call the System of Profound Knowledge and the elements of psychology and systems and variation, the theory of knowledge, just not enough. Insufficient. Nice idea. But it's when at Rocketdyne we would call "reforming."   0:13:39.0 BB: And we started 'cause Russ... Dr. Deming talks about transformation, and Russ talks about reforming. And so I started thinking, "How would I explain what... " I just thought it was too... My interpretation of what Dr. Deming is saying of the individual transform will begin to see things differently, okay. My interpretation is, I begin to hear things differently, I begin to hear the contrast between somebody referring to their son as "their son" versus "our son," my idea versus our idea; I start paying attention to pronouns, so I start hearing things differently; I start to think about, see things as a system a little... I become more aware, visually more aware.   0:14:43.9 BB: And to me, another aspect I think about relative to transformation is that, if I'm the professor and you're the student in a class, or in any situation, I don't see... I think about how I've contributed to whatever it is you're doing. I have somehow created the headache that you're experiencing. If I'm upstream of you in the organization, whether that's me delivering a report or a tool, or I'm the professor delivering the lecture, I began to realize that your issues I've created, and I begin to see things as a... I begin to see that I am part of the issue, Part of the solution, part of the problem. When I explained to students this, I began to realize as a professor that I am not an observer of your learning, asking "How did you do on the exam?" I am a participant in your learning, saying "How did we do in the lecture?" And to me, that's all part of this transformation.   0:15:53.0 BB: Now, the other word, "reform," which is associated with things I've heard from Russ. He talks about... Yeah, I'll just pause there. But I started thinking, well, Deming's talking about how I see the world, how I begin to see relationships differently, think about variation differently. That's a personal transformation. Reforming, and others began to explain to people at Rocketdyne and I do with clients and students is, reforming is when you and I swap jobs. Reforming is when I look at the process and get rid of a few steps. Reforming is changing titles. Reforming is painting something, [chuckle] changing the color. I think I shared, maybe in the first podcast series, I was doing a multi-day, one-on-one seminar with a pediatrician in Kazakhstan, who came to London to meet me and a bunch of other friends to learn more about Dr. Deming's work. And the entire thing was done through a translator.   0:17:07.1 BB: And so I would ask a question in English, it would be translated to Russian then back to me in English. And so at some point, I said to Ivan Klimenko, a wonderful, wonderful guy. I said, "Ivan," I said [chuckle] to Yuri, the translator, I said, "Ask Ivan, what's the fastest way for a Red Pen Company, a non-Deming company, a "Me" organization, to become a Blue Pen Company, otherwise known as a Deming company or "We" organization." And these are terms that we talked about in the first series; I don't think in this series. But, anyway, I said, "So what's the fastest way for a non-Deming company to become a Deming company? A Red Pen Company to become a Blue Pen Company?"   0:17:44.9 BB: And so he asked, and I'm listening to the translation. And he says, "Okay, I give up." I said, "Spray paint." [chuckle] And that's what reforming is: Getting out the red spray paint, having things become neat, clean, and organized, and you're just going through the motions. There's no change of state. And so, "I do your job, you do my job," that's not sufficient. But get us to think about the contrast of a Deming and a non-Deming organization, then you and I changing roles could be enormously beneficial as I begin to understand what it's like to be on the receiving end. Now, we're talking. And I think I mentioned in a previous podcast, I had a woman attend one of the classes I did at Rocketdyne, and she said, "Bill, in our organization, we have compassion for one another." It's the same thing. It's not sufficient. And that's me saying, "Andrew, I feel really bad. I lost a lot of sleep last night thinking about how much time you spend banging together all those parts that I give you. And if there was anything I could do to make things better, I would love to help you. But at the end of the day, Andrew, all the parts I gave you are good, right? I don't give you bad stuff, right? Have I ever given you a defective part, Andrew?"   0:19:12.0 AS: Nope.   0:19:13.1 BB: "So, everything's good, right? Everything's good that I give you? Well, then, if I could help you, but I don't know what else to do. Everything I give you is good. So, it must be on your end." [laughter]   [overlapping conversation]   0:19:24.1 AS: And I'm busy. Yeah.   0:19:26.6 BB: Must be on you. And that's what I'm talking about. Now, if I understand that I'm contributing to your headache, I'm contributing to the trouble you're having with an example, now I'm inspired; now I understand there's something on me. [chuckle] But, short of that, nice idea, it's not helping.   0:19:50.0 BB: [laughter] So, the story I wanted to share before we're talking about this role-changing. Again, role-changing by itself, nah, not sufficient. So, see if this sounds familiar. It has to do with acceptability. I'm pretty certain it's part of the first series. I wanna make sure it's part of the second series. So, I was in a seminar at Rocketdyne on something to do with quality. And I think United Technologies had purchased Rocketdyne. They were bringing to us their new quality management system. Not just any quality management system, Andrew. This was called ACE, A-C-E. And, when we first learned about this, I remember being in a room when their United Technologies, ACE experts started to explain it. And some of my colleagues said, "Well, what is ACE?" They said, "Well, it's Achieving Competitive Excellence." "Well, what is it? What is it, 'competitive... '"   0:20:52.2 AS: It sounds like you wanna put that up on the wall as a slogan.   0:20:56.0 BB: It was a slogan, "Achieving Competitive Excellence." And people says, "Well, what is it?" I said, "Well, it's Lean Six Sigma." Well, so why do you call it ACE? Well, our arch rivals, General Electric. they call it Lean Six Sigma. We ain't gonna call it Lean Six Sigma. So, we're calling it ACE, A-C-E, Achieving Competitive Excellence. But it's the same thing as Lean Six Sigma. [chuckle] And so we had all this mandatory ACE training that we would all sit through and pray that the rosters were never lost, were never lost so we wouldn't have to take the training again. So, in the training, there was a discussion of, how does the environment impact quality? And I don't know how it came up, but similar, there's a conversation about the environment could affect quality. And, so when that was raised, I think it was a question that came up.   0:21:56.9 BB: How does the environment affect quality? The physical environment: How hot it is, how cold it is. So, one of the attendees says, "I've got an example." He says, "I worked for a Boeing supplier," and it might have been, "I worked for Boeing in Australia." I know he said he worked in Australia. They made parts, big parts, very tall parts like a 15, 20... Very long section. And I think he said it had to do with the tails, part of the tail for Boeing airplane. [chuckle] He says, "When we would measure it," he said, "we knew that if we took the measurement first thing in the morning before the sun came up and it started to get hot, then there's a good chance that the length would meet requirements. And, we knew that once that part saw the heat of the sun and expanded, then it wouldn't meet requirements. So, we measured it first thing in the morning, [laughter] and that's an example of how the environment affects quality." And, my first thought when I heard that was, "You can't make that story up, that I will keep measuring it until it meets requirements." That, Andrew, is me shipping acceptability. Do I care at all about how that part is used, Andrew? [chuckle]   0:23:18.7 AS: Nope.   0:23:19.9 BB: Do I know how that part is installed? Am I watching you install it and go through all, you know, hammer it? Nope. No. Again, even if I did, would I think twice that I measured it before the sun came up and that might be causing the issue? No, that still would not occur to me. But the other thing I wanted to bring up on this, on the topic of ACE, remember what ACE stands for?   0:23:46.0 AS: Achieving Competitive...   0:23:50.0 BB: Excellence.   0:23:50.3 AS: Excellence.   0:23:51.8 BB: So, Rocketdyne was owned by United Technologies of Pratt and Whitney, division of West Palm Beach, for 10 years or so? 10 long years. ACE, ACE, ACE, ACE, ACE. So, I kept thinking, [chuckle] I said to some of my Deming colleagues, "There's gotta be another acronym which is A-C-E." Achieving Competitive... What? What might be another E word? 'Cause it's not... Instead of ACE, Achieving Competitive Excellence, I kept thinking of this, what might be another way of what this is really all about? And it dawned me. The embarrassment is how long it took me to come up with what ACE translated to. And it was "Achieving Compliance Excellence." [chuckle]   0:24:42.9 AS: Excellent.   0:24:45.0 BB: Does it meet requirements? Yes. And so what is compliance excellence? It gets us back to acceptability. So, traditional quality compliance. But then while I was on the thought of Achieving Compliance Excellence, and then, well, there's a place for meeting requirements. There's a place for compliance excellence. I'm not throwing it out the window. I would say, if I ask you, Andrew, how far it is to the closest airport and you say 42 miles, 42 kilometers, or you say it takes an hour, then embedded in that model is "A minute is a minute, an hour is an hour, a mile is a mile, and all the miles are the same." Well, maybe they aren't. Maybe they aren't. Maybe I'm walking that distance, and I'm going uphill and downhill. Maybe I'm driving that distance. And those changes in elevation don't matter as much. So, then, what I thought was, there's Achieving Compliance Excellence that's acceptability, and then there's Achieving Contextual Excellence, which is my understanding of the context.   0:25:56.7 BB: And given my understanding of the context, if you say to me, "How far is it to the nearest airport?" I say, "Well, tell me more about the context of your question. Are you driving there? Are you riding your bike there? Are you walking there?" 'Cause then I'm realizing that every mile with Compliance Excellence, I just treat it as "a mile is a mile is a mile." They're all interchangeable, they're all the same. With Contextual Excellence, the context matters. And I say to you, "That's a... I mean, 42 miles, but boy, every mile is... They're brutal." And so then just the idea that context matters, that the understanding of a system matters. All right. So, next thing I wanna get to, and we've talked about this before but we never got it in, but I wanna provide, I really... Well, what I think is a neat example. [laughter] Okay. Calm down, Bill. [laughter]   0:26:54.8 AS: Yeah. You're excited about it.   0:26:57.0 BB: All right.   0:26:57.1 AS: So, about your idea... [chuckle]   0:27:00.2 BB: All right. So, again, in this spirit, my aim in conversation with you is to provide insights to people trying to bring these ideas to their organization. They're either trying to improve their own understanding, looking for better ways to explain it to others. And towards that end, here is a keeper. And for those who try this, if you have trouble, get back to me. Let me know how it goes. Here's the scenario I give people, and I've done this many, many times. What I used to do is give everyone in the room a clear transparency. That's when you had overhead projectors. [chuckle] 'Cause people say, "What is a transparency? What is an overhead projector?"   [overlapping conversation]   0:27:45.0 AS: Yeah exactly.   0:27:46.8 BB: It's a clear piece of plastic, like the size of a sheet of paper. And on that sheet, on that piece of plastic was a vertical line and a horizontal line. I could call it set a set of axes, X-Y axis. And the vertical axis I called "flavor." And the horizontal axis, I called "time." And, so everyone, when they would walk into a seminar, would get a clear transparency. I give them a pen to write on this transparency. And I'd say to them, "Here's what I want you to imagine. The horizontal axis is time. The vertical axis is flavor." And I would hold up a can of soda and I'd say, "Imagine. Imagine, inside this can, imagine before the lid is put on, soda is added to this can," any kind of soda. Right? "Imagine soda's in the can. Imagine in the can is a probe, a flavor meter. And the flavor meter is connected to the pen in your hand." And what that... Wirelessly, Andrew. So, there's this probe that goes into the soda, into the can. It is, let's say, with Bluetooth technology connected to the pen in your hand, such that you have the ability with this magic pen to trace out what the flavor of the soda in the can is at any point in time.   0:29:31.0 BB: And so I would put on the vertical axis, right, the Y axis, I would put a little tick mark, maybe three quarters of the way up the vertical axis. And so everyone started at that tick mark. And I would say, "Okay, get your pen ready, get it on the tick mark. This flavor meter is inside the can. It's transmitting to your hand and the pen the flavor of Pepsi. If I was to seal this can, put the lid on it, and I say, 'Now the device is activated.' As soon as I put the lid on the can, the pen is activated and your hand starts to trace out what is the flavor of the soda doing over time." And I would say, "If you think the flavor gets better, then you have a curve going up. If you think the flavor of the soda's getting worse, then it goes down. If you think it stays the same, it just goes across."   0:30:37.1 BB: And I would just say, "What I want each of you to do, as soon as that can is sealed, I want you to imagine what the flavor of Pepsi, Coke, whatever it is, I want you to... " The question is, "What do you think the flavor of soda is doing in a sealed can over time?" And I would say, "Don't ask any questions. Just do that." Now, most of the people just take that and they just draw something. They might draw something flat going across. [chuckle] Now and then somebody would say, [chuckle] "Is the can in a refrigerator?" [chuckle] And my response is, "Don't complicate this."   [laughter]   0:31:26.1 BB: So, I just throw that out. Most people just take that and just trace something out. And for the one who says, "Is it refrigerated? What's the timescale? Is the horizontal axis years or minutes?" I'd say, "Don't complicate it." [chuckle]   0:31:46.8 AS: "And don't ask questions."   0:31:48.9 BB: "And don't ask... " But you can bring me over and I'll ask you a question. You can ask your questions, I would just say, "Don't complicate it." So, what do we do? Everyone gets a few minutes, they draw it. I take all those transparencies that you can see through, and I put them on top of one another. And I can now hold them up to the room and people can see what I'm holding up. They can see all the different curves.   0:32:17.0 AS: Right.   0:32:18.0 BB: 'Cause they all start at the same point. And then I would say to the audience, "What do they all have in common?" Well, they all start at the same point. "What else do they have in common? What do they all have in common?" And people are like, "I don't know." Some of them are flat. They go across, the flavor doesn't change. Most of them think it goes down at some rate.   0:32:43.4 AS: Yep.   0:32:45.0 BB: Either concave down or convex down. Now and then, somebody will say it goes up and up and up; might go up and then down. But most people think it goes down over time. That's the leading answer. The second leading answer is it's constant. Up and down, rarely. So, I've done that. I've had people do that. I used to have a stack of 500 of transparencies. I used to save them and just go through them. I've done it, let's say in round numbers, 1,500 to 2,000 people. So, all the curves start at that tick mark in the 99.9999% of them either go down or go across. What's cool is, all those curves are smooth. Meaning, very smoothly up, very smoothly across, very smoothly down. Mathematically, that's called a "continuous function." And what I explained to them is, if I draw a vertical line halfway across the horizontal axis, and I look at every one of those curves, because the curves are smooth, if I draw a vertical line and how each curve, your profile and all the others go across that line, immediately to the left and immediately to the right, it's the same value because the curve is smooth.   0:34:28.3 BB: But I don't ask them to draw a smooth curve. I just say, "What do you think the flavor does over time?" They always, with three exceptions, draw a smooth curve. And so when I ask them what do they have in common, you get, "They start at the same point." Nope, that's not it. I don't know if anyone's ever articulated, "They're all continuous functions." Very rarely. So, then I explained, "They're all continuous functions. But I didn't ask you to draw a continuous function." Well, when I point out to them that three times, three times, Andrew, out of nearly 2,000, somebody drew a curve that goes starting at the tick mark, zero time, and it goes straight across halfway across the page at the same level, and then drops down to zero instantly, it's what's known mathematically as a "step function."   0:35:26.9 BB: So, it goes across, goes across, and then in zero time drops down to zero and then continues. So, three out of nearly 2,000 people drew a curve that wasn't smooth. Again, mathematically known as a step function. And each time I went up to that person and I said, and I comment on it, and each of them said, there's a point at which it goes bad. And each of them had a job in a quality organization. [chuckle] And so why is this important? Because in industry, there's this thing known as an "expiration date." What is an expiration date? It's the date past which you cannot use the chemical, the thing. And what's the assumption? The assumption is, a second before midnight on that date, Andrew, you could use that chemical, that acid, that glue, whatever it is in our product; a second before midnight, before the expiration date, you can use that. But a second after midnight, we put this tape and we call it "defective." And so I've worked with companies that are in the chemical business, and they literally have this tape. At the expiration date, we don't use it. A second before midnight, we do. And so what you have is a sense that it goes from good to bad, you know how fast, Andrew?   0:37:15.0 AS: Tick of a clock.   0:37:17.0 BB: Faster than that, Andrew. Zero time.   0:37:21.0 AS: Yeah.   0:37:22.0 BB: Zero time. And so what I ask people is, "Can you think of any phenomenon that happens in zero time?" And people call that's... "Well, the driver was killed instantly." No, it wasn't zero time. "Well, someone is shot." It's not zero time. And so what's cool is, when I ask people to describe a phenomenon, describe any physical phenomenon that happens in zero time, that we go from one location to another, from one state to another in zero time, I've not been stumped on that. Although actually, [chuckle] there are some situations where that happens. Well, the reason that's important for our audience is, that's a demonstration that expiration-date thinking is an organizational construct. It's not a physical construct. Milk goes bad fast. [chuckle] I'll admit, the expiration date on the half gallon of milk, it goes bad fast.   0:38:27.2 BB: But a second before midnight and a second after midnight, it's still the same. So, expiration-date thinking is what acceptability is about; that everything is good, equally good, but once we go across that expiration date, Andrew, then the flavor changes suddenly. And so what I used to kid people is, imagine if that really happened, right? Then we'd have this contest. I'd say, "Andrew, I had a can of Pepsi recently. And have you ever done this, Andrew? You get the can of Pepsi that has the expiration date on it. And if you listen to it at midnight, on the expiration date, you listen closely, you can hear it go from good to bad, Andrew." [chuckle] Would that be awesome? [chuckle] So, I was sharing some of this recently with our good friend, Christina, at The Deming Institute office.   0:39:31.0 AS: Yep.   0:39:32.7 BB: And it happened to be her birthday. And, so I sent her a note and I said, "Happy birthday." And I said, "So, did you change age immediately on the second you were born?" 'Cause she said, 'cause I think she said something like, "My mom reached out to me and she reminded me exactly what time I was born." And I said, "Oh," I said, "so did you feel the change in age as you crossed that?" And she said, she said, "Hi, Bill. Of course, I felt instantly different on my birthday. My mom even told me what time, so I'd know exactly when to feel different." [chuckle] Now, so here's a question for you, Andrew. Can you think of a situation where something changes from one value to another in zero time? In zero time. Again, we don't go from living to dying in zero time. The change of Pepsi doesn't go from one value to another in zero time. The quality of any product is not changing, you go from one side to the other. But can you think of anything that actually happens in zero time: Across that line, it goes from one value to another?   0:41:05.0 AS: Nope, I can't.   0:41:08.8 BB: Oh, come on, Andrew. You ready?   0:41:16.2 AS: Go for it.   0:41:20.0 BB: Did you ever hear of the German novelist, Thomas Mann, M-A-N-N?   0:41:24.0 AS: No.   0:41:25.7 BB: All right. I wrote this down as a closing thought; it may not be the closing thought. We'll just throw it in right now. So, this in an article [chuckle] I wrote for the Lean Management Journal.   0:41:38.0 AS: By the way, it's gotta be the closing thought because we're running out of time. So, perfect.   0:41:43.7 BB: Fantastic! Well, then here's my closing thought, Andrew. You want my closing thought?   0:41:47.1 AS: Do it.   0:41:48.1 BB: All right. So, from an article I wrote for the Lean Management Journal, so here's the quote. "I have witnessed industrial chemicals in full use right up to the expiration date, and then banned from use and tagged for immediate disposal with a passing of the expiration date only seconds before the chemicals were freely used. While they may rapidly sour, it is unlikely that they expire with a big bang, all in keeping with a sentiment of German novelist Thomas Mann's observation about New Year's Eve," Andrew. What he said was, "Time has no divisions to market's passage. There's never a thunderstorm or a blare of trumpets to announce the beginning of a new month or year. Even when the century begins, it is only we mere mortals who ring bells and fire off pistols." So, at midnight on December 31st, a fraction of a second before midnight, we're in 2024 and we go to 2025 in zero time, Andrew. So, legally things change as you go across a line. You go from the United States to Mexico across a line of zero thickness. So, legally things across a line change instantly.   0:43:17.0 AS: Well.   0:43:18.0 BB: A coupon, Andrew, expires at midnight. [laughter]   0:43:22.7 AS: Yep. All right. Well, on behalf of everyone at The Deming Institute, I want to thank you again for this discussion. And for listeners, remember to go to deming.org to continue your journey. And if you wanna keep in touch with Bill, as he mentioned at the beginning, just reach out to him on LinkedIn. This is your host, Andrew Stotz, and I'll leave you with one of my favorite quotes from Dr. Deming. "People are entitled to joy in work."

Explore how every choice we make sows seeds that shape our reality, guided by the universal law of karma. In this episode, we uncover the power of conscious creation, the importance of setting boundaries, and how to cultivate harmony in relationships to build a life of intentional abundance.Visit https://donorbox.org/aow-donations and be a blessing today. Together, we can change lives!The Folly of Man - Part IIExplore how every choice we make sows seeds that shape our reality, guided by the universal law of karma. In this episode, we uncover the power of conscious creation, the importance of setting boundaries, and how to cultivate harmony in relationships to build a life of intentional abundance.To contact Antonio T. Smith Jr.https://www.facebook.com/theatsjrhttps://www.amazon.com/stores/Antonio-T.-Smith-Jr/author/B00M3MPVJ8https://www.linkedin.com/in/antoniotsmithjrhttps://antoniotsmithjr.comhttps://www.instagram.com/theatsjr Key ConceptsFarewell Message and TransitionAntonio announces his farewell to the current phase of work, stating:This phase no longer aligns with his purpose or energy.His focus is shifting towards fulfilling his higher calling.Emphasizes the importance of listening to and acting on advice and guidance.Clarifies that his departure is not rooted in emotion but in necessity for his growth and others' empowerment.Stresses the urgency of individuals recognizing and appreciating his contributions while aligning with their own purpose.Life's Purpose and Personal MissionDeclares his life's purpose: “Gathering the wondrous and building heaven on earth.”Explains that achieving this requires leaving behind spaces and relationships that no longer serve mutual growth.Frames his departure as a necessary step to align his work with the broader mission of creating sustainable, impactful systems.Arlingbrook Project: Vision for a Unified Ethical Resource EcosystemOverviewArlingbrook is described as a groundbreaking city project rooted in:Sustainability.Equity.Innovation.Ethical resource management.Represents 20 years of dedicated planning and vision-building.Distinguishes itself from purely resource-based economies, incorporating human needs and rewards for excellence.Key FeaturesInfrastructure:Education, healthcare, and religious districts.Systems designed to elevate collective consciousness and reduce inequity.Governance:Operates as a legal municipality.Combines traditional structures with innovative governance principles.Economic System:Incorporates money but redefines its meaning to align with fairness and equity.Rewards excellence and incentivizes collective contributions without creating disparity.Goals:Serve as a living example of an ethical and sustainable city.Inspire global adoption of similar systems.Call for ContributionStresses the importance of financial readiness and personal growth to contribute effectively to ARlingbrook.Encourages supporters to align their personal success with Arlingbrook's vision.Call to Action for SupportersAntonio challenges individuals to:Evaluate whether their actions align with their higher purpose.Become conscious creators by focusing on meaningful contributions.Spread the message of ARlingbrook to others as part of a collective movement.Encourages personal accountability:Take small, consistent steps to improve circumstances and inspire others to do the same.Recognize the power of individual and collective action to effect significant change.Economic Philosophy of ArlingbrookCritique of Existing SystemsCriticizes traditional economic models like:Capitalism for its inequity.Socialism and communism for their inability to sustain innovation and fairness.Frames Arlingbrook as a “unified ethical resource ecosystem”:Balances human desires for reward with the need for communal equity.Aims to eliminate the flaws inherent in existing systems by redefining resource distribution.Innovation in EconomicsInspired by visionaries like Jacques Fresco and Louis Kelso, Antonio reimagines economic systems to focus on:Empowering individuals through shared resources.Redefining success and wealth in non-materialistic terms.Incorporates a hybrid model where financial incentives exist but are restructured to reflect contribution and equity.The Problem of IgnoranceIgnorance as Humanity's Primary ChallengeDefines ignorance as the root of all societal problems:Lack of understanding of the principles governing life and the universe.Misalignment between human behavior and natural laws.Asserts that ignorance perpetuates:Poor decision-making.Inequity.Environmental degradation.Solution Through Conscious ActionAdvocates for education and awareness as the path to overcoming ignorance:Learning and applying universal laws like cause and effect.Focusing on personal accountability and collective improvement.Uses the biblical reference of Jesus addressing ignorance even in his final moments as a model for prioritizing enlightenment over ego.Vision for Global ChangeMethodology for ChangeProposes a grassroots approach to global transformation:Starting with a small group of individuals (e.g., 25,000 people).Using exponential growth to reach larger populations.Mathematically demonstrates that starting with one person influencing three others can reach over 8 billion people in just 21 cycles.Emphasizes the power of simplicity in transformation:Focus on changing a few lives at a time.Use collective action to create ripple effects.Urgency of ActionHighlights the moral and ethical obligation to act:Challenges supporters to reflect on their own ignorance and complicity in societal issues.Urges alignment of personal actions with global change.Personal Growth and ResponsibilityAdvocates for individual transformation as the foundation for collective progress:Personal success, especially financial, is essential to contributing meaningfully to larger causes.Encourages supporters to:Overcome limiting beliefs.Embrace growth opportunities.Lead by example in their communities.Frames financial readiness as a critical step in supporting ARlingbrook and other transformative initiatives.Biblical and Philosophical UnderpinningsDraws parallels between Arlingbrook's vision and biblical teachings:Jesus' actions on the cross are used as an example of prioritizing enlightenment and forgiveness over personal suffering.Incorporates philosophical insights to inspire critical thinking and alignment with universal principles.AcknowledgmentExpresses gratitude to contributors, particularly Ine, for her instrumental role in designing and visualizing ARlingbrook's concepts.Recognizes the collective effort required to bring this vision to fruition.·      Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/secret-to-success-law-of-attraction/exclusive-contentAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Josh and Bryan welcome Brandon Cirbo (@ernekingpb) back to the FUPASU to mathematically and scientifically over-analyze and over-analogize episode three of Survivor 47. If you have enjoyed our coverage, please consider leaving us a review or rating. "Lord of the Rangs" / "Lotus" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

On this show you've heard us talk about these instances that happen in our life where two or more happenings collide. Some will say it's just a coincidence, but over here we know them as synchronicities. Mathematically these things shouldn't happen, however they seem to be happening nonstop. Regardless of how it works, one thing seems to be apparent, it is something that is happening for you. You Don't Know What You Don't Know! Up For The Meta Mysteries Patreon—> https://www.patreon.com/MetaMysteriesFor 10% OFF Orgonite----> Click Here! (Use Code: ONE)Reach out to us! ---> MetaMysteries111@gmail.comInquire about a Past Life Regression---> MetaHypnosis@Protonmail.comGive us a follow on Instagram---> @MetaMysteriesBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/meta-mysteries--5795466/support.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: A Robust Natural Latent Over A Mixed Distribution Is Natural Over The Distributions Which Were Mixed, published by johnswentworth on August 22, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. This post walks through the math for a theorem. It's intended to be a reference post, which we'll link back to as-needed from future posts. The question which first motivated this theorem for us was: "Redness of a marker seems like maybe a natural latent over a bunch of parts of the marker, and redness of a car seems like maybe a natural latent over a bunch of parts of the car, but what makes redness of the marker 'the same as' redness of the car? How are they both instances of one natural thing, i.e. redness? (or 'color'?)". But we're not going to explain in this post how the math might connect to that use-case; this post is just the math. Suppose we have multiple distributions P1,…,Pk over the same random variables X1,…,Xn. (Speaking somewhat more precisely: the distributions are over the same set, and an element of that set is represented by values (x1,…,xn).) We take a mixture of the distributions: P[X]:=jαjPj[X], where jαj=1 and α is nonnegative. Then our theorem says: if an approximate natural latent exists over P[X], and that latent is robustly natural under changing the mixture weights α, then the same latent is approximately natural over Pj[X] for all j. Mathematically: the natural latent over P[X] is defined by (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]), and naturality means that the distribution (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]P[X=x]) satisfies the naturality conditions (mediation and redundancy).The theorem says that, if the joint distribution (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]jαjPj[X=x]) satisfies the naturality conditions robustly with respect to changes in α, then (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]Pj[X=x]) satisfies the naturality conditions for all j. "Robustness" here can be interpreted in multiple ways - we'll cover two here, one for which the theorem is trivial and another more substantive, but we expect there are probably more notions of "robustness" which also make the theorem work. Trivial Version First notion of robustness: the joint distribution (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]jαjPj[X=x]) satisfies the naturality conditions to within ϵ for all values of α (subject to jαj=1 and α nonnegative). Then: the joint distribution (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]jαjPj[X=x]) satisfies the naturality conditions to within ϵ specifically for αj=δjk, i.e. α which is 0 in all entries except a 1 in entry k. In that case, the joint distribution is (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]Pk[X=x]), therefore Λ is natural over Pk. Invoke for each k, and the theorem is proven. ... but that's just abusing an overly-strong notion of robustness. Let's do a more interesting one. Nontrivial Version Second notion of robustness: the joint distribution (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]jαjPj[X=x]) satisfies the naturality conditions to within ϵ, and the gradient of the approximation error with respect to (allowed) changes in α is (locally) zero. We need to prove that the joint distributions (x,λP[Λ=λ|X=x]Pj[X=x]) satisfy both the mediation and redundancy conditions for each j. We'll start with redundancy, because it's simpler. Redundancy We can express the approximation error of the redundancy condition with respect to Xi under the mixed distribution as DKL(P[Λ,X]||P[X]P[Λ|Xi])=EX[DKL(P[Λ|X]||P[Λ|Xi])] where, recall, P[Λ,X]:=P[Λ|X]jαjPj[X]. We can rewrite that approximation error as: EX[DKL(P[Λ|X]||P[Λ|Xi])] =jαjPj[X]DKL(P[Λ|X]||P[Λ|Xi]) =jαjEjX[DKL(P[Λ|X]||P[Λ|Xi])] Note that Pj[Λ|X]=P[Λ|X] is the same under all the distributions (by definition), so: =jαjDKL(Pj[Λ,X]||P[Λ|Xi]) and by factorization transfer: jαjDKL(Pj[Λ,X]||Pj[Λ|Xi]) In other words: if ϵji is the redundancy error with respect to Xi under distribution j, and ϵi is the redundancy error with respect to Xi under the mixed distribution P, then ϵijαjϵji The redundancy error of the mixed distribution is a...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Interoperable High Level Structures: Early Thoughts on Adjectives, published by johnswentworth on August 22, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Meta: This post is a relatively rough dump of some recent research thoughts; it's not one of our more polished posts, in terms of either clarity or rigor. You've been warned. The Interoperable Semantics post and the Solomonoff Inductor Walks Into A Bar post each tackled the question of how different agents in the same world can coordinate on an ontology, so that language can work at all given only a handful of example usages of each word (similar to e.g. children learning new words). Both use natural latents as a central mathematical tool - one in a Bayesian probabilistic framework, the other in a minimum description length framework. Both focus mainly on nouns, i.e. interoperable-across-minds clusters of "objects" in the environment. … and the two propose totally different models. In one, the interoperability of cluster labels (i.e. nouns) follows from natural latent conditions over different features of each object. In the other, interoperability follows from natural latent conditions across objects, with no mention of features. The two models are not, in general, equivalent; they can't both be both correct and complete. In this post, we'll propose that while the natural latent conditions over objects still seem to intuitively capture the rough notion of nouns, the natural latent conditions over features seem much better suited to adjectives. We'll briefly lay out two different potential ways to use natural latents over features as semantic values for adjectives. Then we'll talk a bit about implications, open threads and how this fits into a broader research gameplan. The Problem When children learn language, the cognitive process seems to go: Observe the world a bunch … organize knowledge of the world according to some categories, concepts, ontology, etc … those categories, concepts, ontology, etc match other humans' categories, concepts, ontology, etc reasonably well … so it only takes a handful of examples (1-3, say) of the use of a given word in order for the child to learn what the word refers to. The crucial point here is that the categories/concepts/ontology are mostly learned before a word is attached; children do not brute-force learn categories/concepts/ontology from "labeled data". We can tell this is true mainly because it typically takes so few examples to learn the meaning of a new word. The big puzzle, then, is that different humans learn mostly approximately the same categories/concepts/ontology - i.e. the same "candidates" to which words might point - as required for language to work at all with so few examples. How does that work? Mathematically, what are those "interoperable" categories/concepts/ontology, which different humans mostly convergently learn? How can we characterize them? Or, somewhat earlier on the tech tree: can we find even a single model capable of accounting for the phenomenon of different minds in the same environment robustly converging on approximately the same categories/concepts/ontology? Forget whether we can find a model which correctly captures the ontology converged upon by humans, can we even find any model capable of accounting for any sort of robust ontological convergence? Can we find such a model for which the convergent ontology even vaguely resembles the sorts of things in human language (nouns, verbs, adjectives, etc)? What would such a model even look like? That's roughly the stage we're at in this post. Two Previous Models: Naturality Over Objects vs Features Our main tool is (deterministic) natural latents. The usage looks like: Suppose the different minds each look for (and find) a latent variable which satisfies the natural latent conditions over some lower-level variab...

In our first segment, we discuss the Montreal Canadiens game against the Tampa Bay Lightning, during which the Habs were officially mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. As is the case too many times with these teams, the officiating was the story of the game. In our second segment, we discuss Lane Hutson not being a finalist for the Honey Baker award for the second year in a row. Finally, we get into some mailbag questions, and ask ourselves, should the Canadiens trade for Jonathan Huberdeau? Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!eBay MotorsFor parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit at eBayMotos.com. Let's ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.IndeedIndeed knows when you're growing your own business, you have to make every dollar count. Visit Indeed.com/LOCKEDON to start hiring now. RobinhoodRobinhood has the only IRA that gives you a 3% boost on every dollar you contribute when you subscribe to Robinhood Gold. Now through April 30th, Robinhood is even boosting every single dollar you transfer in from other retirement accounts with a 3% match. Available to U.S. customers in good standing. Robinhood Financial LLC (member SIPC), is a registered broker dealer.SleeperDownload the Sleeper App and use promo code LOCKEDONNHL to get up to a $100 match on your first deposit. Terms and conditions apply. See Sleeper's Terms of Use for details.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNHLfor $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelNew customers, join today and you'll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

So I took my level of danger to a new level by engaging in the Sheepdog Response Protector Course and I tell you all about how not bad ass I am. Plus I clear up some issues people are having with my prior comments on training. Dude. An incredibly small percentage of people who listen to show are not subscribed. Please do that. Mathematically zero people subscribe and engage with my YouTube page so go do that. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtUpQZF2a02K2EoGEDDxcfQ Thank you to South of the Border - https://www.southoftheborder.com/?gad_source=1 1st detachment - https://1stdetachment.com/mike10 Bet Online - https://www.betonline.ag If you're interested in more detailed assistance, my patreon is here for you https://www.patreon.com/user?u=2666345&fan_landing=true

In today's flashback, an outtake from Episode 29, my conversation with author Ben Loory. It first aired on December 25, 2011. Loory is the author of the story collections Tales of Falling and Flying and Stories for Nighttime and Some for the Day, and a picture book for children, The Baseball Player and the Walrus. His stories have appeared in The New Yorker, Tin House, READ Magazine, and Fairy Tale Review; been heard on This American Life and Selected Shorts; performed live at WordTheatre in Los Angeles and London; and translated into many languages, including Japanese, Farsi, Arabic, and Indonesian. A graduate of Harvard and the American Film Institute, Loory lives in Los Angeles, where he is an Instructor for the UCLA Extension Writers' Program. *** Otherppl with Brad Listi is a weekly literary podcast featuring in-depth interviews with today's leading writers. Available where podcasts are available: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Subscribe to Brad Listi's email newsletter. Support the show on Patreon Merch @otherppl Instagram  TikTok Email the show: letters [at] otherppl [dot] com The podcast is a proud affiliate partner of Bookshop, working to support local, independent bookstores. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mathematically there has to be the best thief and the worst thief. Moe almost definitely might have seen the worst thief in Greece.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This March 14, Short Wave is celebrating pi ... and pie! We do that with the help of mathematician Eugenia Cheng, Scientist In Residence at the School of the Art Institute of Chicago and author of the book How to Bake Pi. We start with a recipe for clotted cream and end, deliciously, at how math is so much more expansive than grade school tests.Click through to our episode page for the recipes mentioned in this episode.Plus, Eugenia's been on Short Wave before! To hear more, check out our episode, A Mathematician's Manifesto For Rethinking Gender.Curious about other math magic? Email us at shortwave@npr.org.