Podcast appearances and mentions of morgan stanley asia

Не можна передбачити результат випадкового експерименту. Але саме це треба зробити, якщо ви хочете зрозуміти нову еру Дональда Трампа Автор: Стівен Роуч, колишній голова і головний економіст Morgan Stanley Asia, старший науковий співробітник Єльського університетуНачитала: Наталія Чекаль

Чи сумісна китайська політична система із сучасною культурою споживання?Автор: Стівен Роуч, колишній голова і головний економіст Morgan Stanley Asia, старший науковий співробітник Єльського університетуНачитала: Наталія Чекаль

Після американських виборів я здійснив поїздку Азією із зупинками в Гонконзі, Шеньчжені, Пекіні та Сінгапурі, і скрізь я бачив лише одне — запереченняАвтор: Стівен Роуч, колишній голова і головний економіст Morgan Stanley Asia, старший науковий співробітник Єльського університетуНачитала: Олена Русінова

US President-elect Donald Trump is already providing a preview of what's to come for US-China relations when he enters the White House, appointing several China hawks to his team and vowing to impose additional tariffs. Stephen Roach, economist and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes the world should take Trump at his word over tariff threats and that it signals his second term could be more contentious than the first.Roach also defends his controversial comments earlier this year that "Hong Kong is over" as ties with the mainland strengthen and the economy remains weak. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Чи може Камала Гарріс стати новим Річардом Ніксоном?Автор: Стівен Роуч, колишній голова і головний економіст Morgan Stanley Asia, старший науковий співробітник Єльського університетуНачитала: Олена Русінова

Owen Thomas is the Chairman and CEO of BXP. He served as the first Chairman at Lehman from 2012 until 2013 when he joined BXP. Before Lehman, Mr. Thomas was with Morgan Stanley for 24 years serving in several different roles, business units, and locations, including Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chairman of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, while living in Hong Kong from 2008 until 2011. He also held the roles of President of Morgan Stanley Investment Management and head of Morgan Stanley Real Estate and served on Morgan Stanley's Management Committee from 2005 until 2011.Links:BXP - https://www.bxp.com/Owen on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/owen-thomas-4012a640/Brandon on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/Topics:(00:00:00) - Intro(00:01:31) - Owen's background and career(00:24:00) - Where are we today in the office market?(00:29:52) - What do WFH/WFO policy talks look like with tenants?(00:37:05) - What makes something a “premiere” asset?(00:43:43) - What is your role in the economic health of a city?(00:48:01) - What's your involvement with affordable housing? (00:50:17) - What's your take on the overall health of the innovation sector as it rebounds?(00:53:39) - How do you think about sustainability in the office environment?

Чому Китай викликає таку сильну, негативну реакцію в США?Автор: Стівен Роуч, колишній голова і головний економіст Morgan Stanley Asia, старший науковий співробітник Єльського університетуНачитала: Олена Русінова

Під час кількох візитів до Китаю, здійснених останніми місяцями, я зробив три висновкиАвтор: Стівен Роуч, колишній голова і головний економіст Morgan Stanley Asia, старший науковий співробітник Єльського університетуНачитала: Олена Русінова

At the height of the pandemic recession, a June 22, 2020, headline in The Capitalist.com caught my eye: “Dollar Will Plunge 35%, Lose Status as World Reserve Currency.” This was quoting Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, someone who is well respected by his peers.  As it turned out, he was wrong and some who followed his advice lost millions. Why are vulnerable parts of us with “unfinished business: so susceptible to following gurus?A podcast that blends the nuts and bolts of financial advice with the emotions that drive making them.Rick Kahler, CFP®, CFT-I™, has helped people make better money decisions by integrating financial planning. He blends the nuts and bolts of financial advice with the emotions that drive making them and shares them on his financial therapy podcast.

With China at risk of falling into a debt deflation loop, lessons from Japan's deflation journey could provide some insight.----- Transcript -----Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from the Morgan Stanley Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategy Team. Laura Wang: And I'm Laura Wang, Chief China Equity Strategist. Daniel Blake: And on this special episode of the podcast, we'll discuss what lessons Japan's deflation journey can offer for China. It's Thursday, October 26th at 10 a.m. in Singapore and Hong Kong. Daniel Blake: So in the period from 1991 to 2001, known as Japan's lost decade, Japan suffered through a prolonged economic stagnation and price deflation. While the corporate sector stopped deleveraging in the early 2000's. It wasn't until the Abenomics program, introduced under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2013, that Japan emerged from deflation and started the process of a gradual recovery in corporate profitability. China's economic trajectory has been very different from Japan's over the last 30 years, but we now see some parallels emerging. Indeed, the risk of falling into a Japanese style stagnation is becoming more acute over the past year as a deep cyclical downturn in the property sector combines with the structural challenge that our economists call the 3D journey of debt, demographics and deflation. So, Laura, before we dig into the comparison between China and Japan's respective journeys to set the stage, can you give us a quick snapshot of where China's equity market is right now and what you expect for the rest of the year? Laura Wang: Sure, Daniel. China market has been through a quite volatile ten months so far this year with a very exciting start given the post COVID reopening. However, the strong macro momentum didn't sustain. Property sales is still falling somewhere between 30 to 50% each month on a year over year basis. And challenges from local government debt issue and early signs of deflationary pressure suggest that turn around for corporate earnings growth could still take longer to happen. We had downgraded China within the global emerging market context at the beginning of August, mainly out of these concerns, and we think more patience is needed at this point. We would like to see more meaningful easing measures to stimulate the demand and help reflate the economy, as well as clear a road map to address some of the structural issues, particularly around the local government debt problem. In contrast to China, Japan's equity market is very strong right now, and Morgan Stanley's outlook continues to be bullish from here. So, Daniel, why is it valuable to compare Japan's deflationary journey since the 1990s and China's recent challenges? What are some of the bigger similarities? Daniel Blake: I think we'll come back to the 3D's. So on the first to them, on debt we do have China's aggregate total debt around 290% of GDP. So that compares with Japan, which was about 265% of GDP back in 1990. So this is similar in the sense that we do have this aggregate debt burden sitting and needs to be managed. Secondly, on demographics, we've got a long expected but now very evident downturn in the share of the labor force that is in working age and an outright decline in working age population in China. And this is going to be a factor for many years ahead. China's birth rate or total number of births is looking to come down to around 8 million this year, compared with 28 million in 1990. And then a third would be deflation. And so we are seeing this broaden out in China, particularly the aggregate GDP level. So in Japan's case, that deflation was mainly around asset price bubbles. In China's case, we're seeing this more broadly with excess capacity in a number of industrial sectors, including new economy sectors. And then this one 4th D which is similar in both Japan's case and China now, and that's the globalization or de-risking of supply chains, as you prefer. When we're looking at this in Japan's case, Japan did face a more hostile trade environment in the late 1980s, particularly with protectionism coming through from the US. And we've seen that play out in the multipolar world for China. So a number of similarities which we can group under 4D's here. Laura Wang: And what are some of the key differences between Japan/China? Daniel Blake: So the first key difference is we think the asset price bubble was more extreme in Japan. Secondly, in China, most of the debt is held by local governments and state owned enterprises rather than the private corporate sector. And thirdly, China is at a lower stage of development than Japan in terms of per capita incomes and the potential for underlying growth. So, Laura, when you're looking ahead, what would you like to see from Chinese policymakers here, both in the near term as well as the longer term? Laura Wang: As far as what we can observe, Chinese policymakers has already started to roll out a suite of measures on the fronts of capital markets, monetary and fiscal policy side over the past 12 months. And we do expect more to come. Particularly on the capital market reform side, there are additional efforts that we think policymakers can help enforce. In our view, those actions could include capital market restructuring, funds flow and liquidity support, as well as further efforts encouraging enhancement of shareholder returns. To be more specific, for example, introducing more benchmark indices with a focus on corporate governance and shareholder returns, further tightening and enforcing the listing rules for public companies, m ore incentives for long term institutional participation, improving capital flow management for foreign investors, and implementing incentives to encourage dividend payouts and share buybacks. Those could all work quite well. Regulatory and even legislative support to help implement these measures would be extremely crucial. Daniel Blake: And what is your outlook for China's medium to long term return on equity path from here? And what are the key catalysts you're watching for that? Laura Wang: Given some of the structure challenges we discussed earlier, we do see a much wider forked path for China's long term growth ROE trajectory. We see MSCI China's long term ROE stabilizing at around 11% in the next 5 to 7 years in our base case. This means there should still be up to around two percentage point of recovery upside from the current levels, thanks to a combination of corporate self-help, the product cycle, policy support from the top and the low base effect. However, further upside above 11% will require a significant reflationary effort from the policymakers, both short term cyclical and long term structural, in combination with a more favorable geopolitical environment. Therefore, we believe prompt and forceful actions from policymakers to stabilize the economy to avoid more permanent negative impact on corporate and consumer behaviors are absolutely needed at this point. Now, let me turn this back to you, Daniel. What is your outlook for Japan's return on equity journey from here, and are there any risks to your bullish view? Daniel Blake: So we have seen Japan looking back from 2013 to now move from below book value in terms of aggregate valuations and a return on equity of just 4%, so much lower than even your bear case. So it's moved up from that level to 9% currently and we're seeing valuations moving up accordingly. We think that's further to go and we think Japan can actually reach 12% sustainable return on equity by 2025 and that's helped by return of nominal GDP growth in Japan and further implementation of governance improvements at the corporate level. So in terms of the risks, I think they are primarily external. We do see Japan's domestic economy in a pretty good place. We think BOJ can exit yield curve control and negative rates without a major shock. So externally we are watching China's risks of moving into a debt deflation loop, as we're discussing here, but also the potential impacts if the US or a global recession were to play out. So clearly we're watching very closely the Fed's efforts and global central bank efforts to achieve a soft landing here. Daniel Blake: So, Laura, thanks for taking the time to talk. Laura Wang: Sure. It's been great speaking with you, Daniel. Daniel Blake: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The U.S. and China are locked in an economic battle that threatens world stability. According to former Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach, both nations are equally at fault for relying on false narratives to accuse the other. Listen, as he shares both countries' perspectives and answers the critical question: Is there a way out?

Esta semana os traigo la actualización de fondos asíaticos en concreto, Morgan Stanley Asia opportunity y Fidelity China Consumer. Los gestores de ambos fondos han estado esta semana en España, y hago un resumen de lo mas relevante comentado por ambos gestores en las conferencias. Los ISIN de los fondos son: MORGAN STANLEY ASIA OPPORTUNITY: LU2295319219 FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER:LU0594300096 MORGAN STANLEY GLOBAL BALANCED RISK: LU0694238501 Para mas información puedes visitar la página: www.fondosdeinversionyvalores.com Si te ha gustado el programa te agradezco le des un like en la aplicación para que de esta manera este contenido informativo y divulgativo pueda llegar a mas gentes. Para cualquier consulta, mi email es: eusgomez@gmail.com

Stephen is a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China and most recently Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. In this podcast we discuss the problem with US savings, w hy Biden continues Trump policies,   China's failed rebalancing, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/world-affairs

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/chinese-studies

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/american-studies

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Denial is a classic symptom of codependency ... Lacking a sense of self, codependent partners tend to be hypersensitive to criticism or negative feedback, preferring instead to deflect it onto others. The resulting denial fuels an escalating cycle of blame and conflict that drives codependent partners apart. Unfortunately, this progressively dysfunctional pathology applies all too well to the conflict between the United States and China. The United States sees its trade deficit as China's fault, as if its own lack of saving had nothing to do with it. China sees its surplus saving and its related current account and trade surpluses as benevolent support for deficit-prone America, as if its own underfunded social safety net and the resulting suppression of personal consumption were not its own doing. Both economies are steeped in denial over the effects of their self-inflicted saving imbalances. Each then turns that denial into blame directed at the other. – Stephen Roach, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale UP, 2022) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship. A rare combination of thought leadership on Wall Street and academia places Stephen Roach in the unique position as a leading practitioner of analytical macroeconomics, and he is one of the country's most influential economists. A forecaster by training in his early days as a Fed economist, Stephen Roach has long been mindful of the perils of historical extrapolation. As seen through that lens, his vision of the “Next China” grew out of this deep respect for the past as a template for the exciting but daunting possibilities of China's uncertain future. Roach's focus on the US-China relationship is an outgrowth of the interplay between two major strands of his professional experience — a leading US economist and an influential analyst of a rising China. Roach's analyses and opinions on China, the United States, and the global economy have long helped to shape policy debates from Beijing to Washington. Professor Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley, mainly as the firm's chief economist heading up a highly regarded global team followed by several years as the Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management and has drawn on his rich experience and developed popular new courses on Asia — notably "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan." His prolific writings also include two other books Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), and The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (2009). The professor's work has appeared in both domestic and international media, as well as academic journals and in congressional testimony over his long and ongoing career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/book-of-the-day

CEO of Boston Properties, Owen Thomas, joins Matt for the first conversation of 2022 on Leading Voices in Real Estate. Boston Properties is the largest office REIT, developing, investing, and managing Class A office buildings in Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C, with a portfolio of 193 properties. Owen exemplifies leadership in our industry with distinct parts of his career. First, he climbed the ladder at Morgan Stanley through a 24 year career, a large part of which was running their real estate state group, then serving as Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley Asia. After his “retirement” from Morgan Stanley, Owen became Boston Properties' CEO, where he's served in the organization for close to a decade. Finally, he has made a commitment to the industry in key leadership positions, including serving as the immediate past Global Chair of the Urban Land Institute and his significant contribution to ULI's Net Zero Imperative Initiative working to reduce our industry's carbon footprint. Beyond sharing his career story, Owen provides insights on where he sees the office sector heading into the new year.In addition, Owen is Director of the Urban Land Institute Foundation, a Director of the Real Estate Roundtable, a member of the Executive Board of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts and a member of the Economic Club of New York. He is a Director of Episcopal Charities of New York and formerly Chairman of the Pension Real Estate Association and Director of the University of Virginia Investment Management Company. Owen attended and is a former Trustee of Woodberry Forest School, received a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Virginia and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.

Douglas Crawford, Ph.D., is the General Manager of MBC Biolabs, Managing Partner of Mission BioCapital, a VC fund investing in life sciences startups at the seed and Series A stages. We talk about the facilities that help scientists at MBC Biolabs, how to get accepted to the labs, partners, golden tickets and stories of startups; funding hypothesis, the impact, and investment criteria to get funded. Show Notes MBC Biolabs  Mission Bay Capital - Started with a realization that nothing that is discovered in a lab at a university by itself cannot benefit a patient without a company in between. - Startups are the most efficient engines to turn an idea into something very practical and useful for society. - Experiment: If we provide a Minimum Viable Space to a scientist, could they do something catalytic to their idea or project? - In the mid 2000's, 100% of VCs in the Silicon Valley said that it is a terrible idea to start a life sciences incubator. They said a biotech incubator will be like an ICU for startups. - Biotech companies don't have market risk- They mostly have technical risk. - The startups that incubated at MBC Biolabs (since 2013) raised over $10 Billion, brought 54 programs to the clinic, 13 approved diagnostics, and 71 products to market. - Selection criteria to get accepted to MBC Biolabs. - If a scientist was lucky to be funded by a VC in the mid 2000's, she/he would have spent about 6-12 months getting their lab up and running, which was fixed by incubators like MBC Biolabs. - Incubators give an opportunity for scientists to prove themselves. - Strategic advice isn't very popular with life sciences entrepreneurs. They are mostly looking for technical validation. - Different definition of pivot. - Golden Tickets - Origin story of Mission Bay Capital- How Jack Wadsworth, Honorary Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Advisory Director of Morgan Stanley globally. encouraged them to raise a fund to invest in startups Doug and his team were incubating. The fund evolved into Mission Bio Capital. - Invest in therapeutics (70%), diagnostics, medical devices, and food. - How they look at risks and insights, and how they invest. - Checkout stories of Caribou Biosciences- Jennifer Doudna & Rachel Haurwitz; Alector- Arnon Rosenthal, Ph.D. - Nitrase Therapeutics- Irene Griswold-Prenner. Story of how a whole new class of enzymes were identified - Areas of interest for investment. - Thoughts on ways the investment funds need to change. - Book recommendations: Noise, Super forecasting

Today we want to introduce you to our remarkable senior advisor Dr. Ernest C. H. NG, and his exceptional path in life.  In his early career, Dr. Ernest C. H. NG was one of the top performers in the financial markets where he also functioned as the Vice President of Morgan Stanley Asia. After 15 years in the financial Industry, Ernest went back to university part-time to study and research Buddhist Philosophy and Buddhist Economics. His book „Introduction to Buddhist Economics“ is a pioneering effort to introduce Buddhist Economics systemically.  Today Dr. Ernest C. H. NG is the Chief Executive Officer of a Buddhist NGO and a Buddhist scholar. He dedicated his life to developing the young generation and future leaders, serving as a mentor for various universities, and advising organizations such as the Sustainable Finance Initiative in Hong Kong.  In our podcast conversation, Ernest tells how his interest in Buddhist Economics arose and combined classical economics with Buddhist values. Why he gave up his career in the financial industry, how companies can do good and well, and what his vision for the future of business looks like. So sit back, relax and enjoy a wonderful new episode on the Conscious Consulting Podcast. If you want to dive deeper into the field of Conscious Consulting visit ccg-group.eu, subscribe to our newsletter so we can stay connected and join our Community meetup Conscious Conversation here: ccg.podia.com

Stephen Roach is a Senior Fellow at Yale’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management, where his research and teaching focus on the impacts of Asia on the global economy. One of Wall Street’s most influential economists, Prof. Roach spent more than 30 years at Morgan Stanley, where he was the Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the bank’s Chief Economist. He has written extensively on globalization, trade policy, and international finance. Last October, Prof. Roach published an article in the Financial Times titled “The end of the dollar’s exorbitant privilege.” He argues that the dollar could fall as much as 35 percent by the end of 2021. In this interview, Prof. Roach walks us through the reasoning behind his arguments and discusses the economic and political significance of a dollar crash, mainly pointing to two metrics – a decline in domestic savings and an increase in the current account deficit. Domestic savings was at 1.4% of national income in Q1 2020, compared to the 45-year average of ~7%. The current account deficit plunged to -3.5% of GDP in the second quarter, the sharpest quarterly decline on record, and the massive stimulus package will further blow up the deficit. What are the implications of such a dramatic dollar crash in valuation, both in the U.S. and abroad? How have the current monetary and fiscal policy regimes exacerbated this issue? And is there anything the U.S. can do to prevent the fall of the dollar? We also touch on another important market trend: the rise of Bitcoin. Despite the cryptocurrency’s increasing popularity and legitimacy among institutional investors and corporations – most notably Elon Musk and Tesla – Prof. Roach is skeptical about its potential as a global currency. We discuss the implications of Bitcoin’s rise and the difficulty of valuing an asset with no traditional fundamentals. On one hand, Tiger argues that Bitcoin has never been supported by fundamentals but always by narratives and people’s faith in it. As long as the faith for Bitcoin is strong enough, as long as people’s doubt on the dollar and other forms of assets are strong enough, and as long as the hunt for yield continues, Bitcoin’s price will just keep shooting up. Prof. Roach counter-argues that by definition speculative bubbles do not go on forever; they always burst. When an asset turns into a speculative bubble, that means people are buying the asset just under the expectation that the prices will keep going up. So by definition, it’s an investor play on price appreciation that is detached from the fundamental value of the asset. That detachment can go on for a lot longer than we think, but ultimately it reasserts itself when the price point involved, for reasons that are very different for each asset, gets so far detached that just the slightest, inconsequential shifts can lead to the bursting of the bubble. Lastly, having spent the bulk of his career on Wall Street, Prof. Roach critiques the Fed’s monetary policy in the past few decades and reflects on his own forecasting career. He addresses the impact of the Fed’s rapid balance sheet expansion, which some argue is inflating prices of financial assets held by the private sector and, in doing so, primarily benefiting the wealthy. Do there exist more equitable ways of stimulating the economy besides Quantitative Easing (QE)? And, if so, what can the Fed do to implement them? This is a far-reaching conversation beyond mere topics of the dollar dominance, Bitcoin, and the GameStop saga. It’s about piecing together the large macro-financial trends we’ve witnessed in the past few decades and trying to make sense of what might come next.

Jonathan Webb, Founder and CEO of ag-tech company AppHarvest, on building some of the largest indoor farms in the world in Appalacia. Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, discusses his column: "The Weaker Dollar Trend Is Only Just Beginning.” Karen Ubelhart, Senior Industrials Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on GE earnings and outlook. Sarah Ponczek, Bloomberg cross-asset reporter, online chat rooms fueling retail penny stock trading. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn. 

In this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He’s currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on “The Next China” and “The Lessons of Japan.”. He’s an author too with his recent book published in 2014, which is called Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China”. In this podcast, we discuss: How poor public health investment has made the recession worse Implications of the US’s diminished role on the global stage Three reasons for the dollar’s coming decline The problem with the lack of US savings Why investment has been too low The problem with Trump’s China policy The need for Europe to stand up on the global stage Likely Biden policies if he wins Life after Wall Street

A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns !!https://youtu.be/3FUKZ6wAwug The Atlantis ReportA Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns. The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash. “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” Roach predicts a 35% decline in the U.S. currency against its major rivals in the near future, citing increases in the nation’s deficit and dwindling savings. He added that the rise of China and the decoupling of the U.S. from its trade partners is likely to end the supremacy of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Dr. Roach is right that sooner or later, manipulating the dollar for our own purposes will come back to bite us. So much of the US prosperity these past decades has come from having the "reserve currency" with the willingness (now gone) to make sacrifices for the world order. The bottom line is that $4 trillion in stimulus has been created to deal with Covid-19. The national debt just passed $26 trillion (130% of GDP). When you create more money, its value must go down, unless other currencies are also being increased at the same rate. While Europe and Japan have also passed their own stimulus, they haven't created proportionally as much new money as the US. Meanwhile, China and Russia have so far refrained from using unconventional fiscal policies. Russia's government debt as a percentage of GDP is actually among the lowest in the world. Not everyone is in the same boat. The US will one day have to face economic consequences for what it has been doing for decades. #theatlantisreport #economiccollapse #silvercoins

Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, discusses his column: "How the Coming Crash in the Dollar Will Unfold." Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer: Wealth Management for Morgan Stanley, on why clients are holding onto cash. Andrew Browne, Editorial Director for Bloomberg New Economy, on how former National Security Advisor John Bolton's book damages Trump's China stance. June Grasso, Legal Analyst and Host of Bloomberg Law, on the Supreme Court decision to stop the Trump Administration from canceling DACA. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn. 

Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach says that he expects the dollar to suffer a serious collapse, forecasting a fall of thirty five percent against other major world currencies such as the yen, yuan, euro, and countless others.

China’s economy is facing its biggest challenges for years as growth slows and debt piled up. How worried should we be?This week Andrew is joined by Stephen Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs; and Dinny McMahon, author of the book ‘China’s Great Wall of Debt’, which chronicles the country’s growing debt problem. A note to listeners - this episode was recorded before the true scale of the coronavirus outbreak was revealed. As ever, get in touch if you have any comments at asiamatterspod@gmail.com. You can also follow us on Twitter: @AsiaMattersPodSupport the show (https://twitter.com/AsiaMattersPod)

Leading American and Chinese economists answer one question: name one way the the U.S.-China trade war has affected the American economy and global trade over the past two years. Despite the signing of a phase-one deal on January 15, until all tariffs are lifted, many of these adverse impacts will continue. Dr. Huang Yiping, Professor and Deputy Dean, National School of Development, Peking University Dr. Nicholas Lardy, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Vice Chair of the Board, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations Dr. Liang Hong, Head of Research, Member of the Management Committee, China International Capital Corporation Dr. Catherine L. Mann, Global Chief Economist, Citi Dr. Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University; Former Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia

Stephen Roach is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at the Yale School of Management. He was formerly the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, positions of immense influence on Wall Street. His longtime study of globalization has led to many books, most recently Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China in 2014. He also writes for Project Syndicate. Stephen joins Kaiser and Jeremy on Sinica to discuss many of the findings of his book, and what has changed since it was published. The topics include: The unhealthy codependency between the economies of China and America, and the inverse nature of their savings rates, investment rates, labor, and consumption. How much of the West has relied on economic policies that promise “false prosperity,” and how China may fall into the same trap. Where the U.S. trade deficit with China actually comes from. Whether savings rates in China are changing dramatically, or will change soon. Why Xi Jinping has formed leading small groups on economic policy, and what that means for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and China’s economic direction. The path toward rebalancing, for both the U.S. and China. Recommendations: Jeremy: The literary website The Bitter Southerner, which covers the American South from a broad-minded perspective that Yankees often overlook. Stephen: The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization, by Richard Baldwin. It forced the former chief economist of Morgan Stanley to rethink many of the ideas he had about globalization. Kaiser: An app called Audm, which has audiobook narrators read aloud long-form articles from outlets such as the Atlantic and the New Yorker.

Gary Locke, a former U.S. ambassador to China, says a border tax would affect China and raise the price of imported goods. Prior to that, Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, says China isn't manipulating its currency. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO's head of short-term and funding desk, says the Fed is in the process of a "hand off" to fiscal policy. Finally, Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, says the labor market is healing. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Gary Locke, a former U.S. ambassador to China, says a border tax would affect China and raise the price of imported goods. Prior to that, Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, says China isn't manipulating its currency. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO's head of short-term and funding desk, says the Fed is in the process of a "hand off" to fiscal policy. Finally, Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, says the labor market is healing.

YJIA discuss the future of employment with Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. Roach reflected on the impact of technology and why he is optimistic that humans will not go the same way as horses. He discusses changes in the way we work and whether current slow growth rates represent a "new normal".

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Stephen Roach, the former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, the Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, now a fellow and lecturer at Yale. They discuss the role of the Federal Reserve. This interview aired on Bloomberg Radio.

Stephen Roach, Yale University professor and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss a number of important subjects in this extensive interview.

Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, exposes the pitfalls of the current China-U.S. economic relationship in a talk with Asia Society's Orville Schell in New York. (1 hr., 49 sec.)

In this episode of China Money Podcast, our guest is Stephen Roach, current senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's chief economist. He spoke with our host, Nina Xiang, on the Fed's tapering of its quantitative easing programs and its impact on China; a potential U.S. default and what that means for China's over US$3 trillion foreign reserves; and why he believes the fears of a China slowdown are vastly overblown. Listen to the full interview in the audio podcast, watch an abbreviated video version (coming soon) or read an excerpt below. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast in the iTunes store. Q: What impact will the U.S. Federal Reserve's reduction of its quantitative easing (QE) programs have on China? A: The policy experiment of the Fed is very risky. It's untested. It's unconventional. In my view, it's a big mistake. Initially, the policy grew out of a deep and legitimate concern of the U.S. and the world economy in crisis. Lacking a leeway in cutting interest rates, which were near zero, the Fed embarked on asset purchases, or liquidity injections. The Fed continued to do it even as the crisis ended and the economy attempted to recover. Last month, when the Fed surprised the market by backing off from QE, it found out that it might be difficult to get out from what could be a "policy trap" that it set itself. China would be adversely impacted if the global economy were dealt a blow by the Fed's policy withdrawal. Where China is exposed to any direct impact (from the U.S.) is if the U.S. were to default on its sovereign debt. China, with its US$3.25 trillion foreign exchange reserves and the biggest share being U.S. dollar assets, could be hit very hard. Q: With the U.S. in the middle of a government shutdown, can you walk us through what you think is the worst-case scenario if a U.S. default takes place? A: It's pretty straightforward. The yields of U.S. treasuries will go up. They will no longer be given the premium of the riskless assets that lies at the core of the world's financial systems. How much it will go up, for how long? It's hard to know. That would certainly result in a loss in the value of any Treasury-based securities. Q: If you were the governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), how would you manage China's foreign reserves differently? A: The dollar-denominated concentration of China's reserves is very much tied to the currency policy of the PBOC. If the Chinese government were to significantly reduce their exposure to U.S. dollar-based assets, then the RMB would rise, possibly significantly, against the U.S. dollar. The RMB has risen close to 35% against the U.S. dollar since mid-2005. The Chinese exporters have dealt with it well and managed to maintain their competitiveness. If there were to be a sharp further appreciation of the RMB because of a U.S. default or other reasons, it would put pressure on Chinese exporters. A U.S. default, which I still believe is a low probability outcome for a sustained period of time, or intensification of U.S. trade frictions that could cause retaliatory reactions from the Chinese, could cause the RMB to appreciate suddenly. But ultimately, I think the best case is to expect gradual further appreciation of the RMB. Q: What policy initiative would you like to see coming from the Third Plenum of the Party Congress in November? A: I like to see initiatives aimed at providing broader support to Chinese consumers. The top of my list is to inject public funds into the social safety net institutions like social security and healthcare. The enrollment has increased a lot, but the assets in these plans are small and the benefit streams are limited. I like to see interest rate liberalization for deposits, and I'd like to see Hukou reform. Q: About China's property market, when do you think the bubble will burst?

McAlvany Weekly Commentary Stephen S. Roach is Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. Previously, he was Managing Director and Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley. Before joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, Mr. Roach was Vice President for Economic Analysis for the Morgan Guaranty Trust Company in New York. The post The Next Asia: An Interview with Stephen Roach appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.