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3 episodes with Daniel Blake
2 episodes with Daniel Blake
2 episodes with Daniel Blake
3 episodes with Daniel Blake
2 episodes with Daniel Blake
Burned guns found in burn scar areas. Shoutouts Hughes Family Market, Circles by Daniel Blake on Spotify . Film & TV Industry hurting // CA. TV & Film Industry needs HELP! ASAP! // Conway's 1,000th promo by the magical Clay Roe. Vicki Lawrence performing at Haugh Performing Arts Center – TIm was in the episode Vinton goes into the Army // Talkbacks
Spéciale Ken Loach à l'occasion de la rétrospective à la Cinematek à Bruxelles en avril et mai. On en parle avec Dick Tomasovic, chargé de cours en histoire et esthétique du cinéma et des arts du spectacle à l'ULg. Le cinéma anglais a connu, à l'image de la Nouvelle Vague française, un tournant radical qui entendait dynamiter un cinéma sclérosé en traitant les sujets critiques de l'époque par un engagement social qui ramenait le cinéma au plus proche du peuple. Les Angry Young Men, emmenés par Lindsay Anderson et Karel Reisz, ont laissé un héritage dont Ken Loach en particulier s'est saisi à la fin de la décennie, pour à son tour porter un regard sur la réalité mû par le même souci d'engagement social que ses prédécesseurs. Merci pour votre écoute Entrez sans Frapper c'est également en direct tous les jours de la semaine de 16h à 17h30 sur www.rtbf.be/lapremiere Retrouvez l'ensemble des épisodes et les émission en version intégrale (avec la musique donc) de Entrez sans Frapper sur notre plateforme Auvio.be : https://auvio.rtbf.be/emission/8521 Abonnez-vous également à la partie "Bagarre dans la discothèque" en suivant ce lien: https://audmns.com/HSfAmLDEt si vous avez apprécié ce podcast, n'hésitez pas à nous donner des étoiles ou des commentaires, cela nous aide à le faire connaître plus largement. Vous pourriez également apprécier ces autres podcasts issus de notre large catalogue: Le voyage du Stradivarius Feuermann : https://audmns.com/rxPHqEENoir Jaune Rouge - Belgian Crime Story : https://feeds.audiomeans.fr/feed/6e3f3e0e-6d9e-4da7-99d5-f8c0833912c5.xmlLes Petits Papiers : https://audmns.com/tHQpfAm Des rencontres inspirantes avec des artistes de tous horizons. Galaxie BD: https://audmns.com/nyJXESu Notre podcast hebdomadaire autour du 9ème art.Nom: Van Hamme, Profession: Scénariste : https://audmns.com/ZAoAJZF Notre série à propos du créateur de XII et Thorgal. Franquin par Franquin : https://audmns.com/NjMxxMg Ecoutez la voix du créateur de Gaston (et de tant d'autres...) Distribué par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.
Daredevil: Born Again is back and we're talking about it! Daniel Blake is big timing it! Heather is even more annoying. Does anyone remember White Tiger? Hear about all of this and more!Follow. Subscribe. Rate. Review. Thumbs up. Give us all the Stars!Show Notes.Not this time!News You Can Abuse!Not this time!What's up next?Daredevil season finale! Where to find us.Episodes https://episodes.fm/1566632765Mastodon https://mastodon.social/@SuperSideshowThreads https://www.threads.net/@super_sideshowPatreon https://patreon.com/SuperSideShowPodcastYouTube https://www.youtube.com/@SuperSideshow
Today on the podcast the guys are joined by Aaron Perine of the Phase Hero podcast and the Free Space podcast. The trio discuss what they thought of the Superman first look, why this film feels different compared to other superhero films, the age of embracing the nerdiness of comics, and when you take a concentrated blast of sun you might hurt too. Plus, the guys give their full spoiler thoughts on episode 8 of Daredevil: Born Again. Find out why this was a standout of the series so far, why everyone should be worried about a united Fisk front, what's lacking for Jong (spoiler rhymes with runisher), Matt's further acceptance of Daredevil at the expense of everyone else, why Bullseye is a menace, whether we find out who actually killed Hector Ayala, BB's awesomeness, Daniel Blake's creepiness/cultishness, and more! Follow Aaron on Threads, Blue Sky, Instagram, or wherever you do your social media-ing, @sumitlakehornet. Subscribe to Phase Hero and Free Space where you get your podcasts!Follow Jong and Michael on social media. Bluesky: @one-punch.bsky.social & @producermike975.bsky.socialThreads: @onepunch______ & @producermike975Instagram: @onepunch______ & @producermike975Rate, review, like, and/or subscribe to Comicast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Castbox, Goodpods, Podcast Addicts, or wherever you get your podcasts! Feedback, questions, or topic ideas for the show? Email us at comicastpod@gmail.com
On today's issue of Comicast the guys give their post chair live stream reactions, who were they either surprised or not surprised by, why Jong was disappointed with the social media chair-a-thon, whether James Marsden get his time to shine as Cyclops finally, the reveal of Spider-Man 4's title, why Brand New Day doesn't seem to inidicate a multiverse story, knowing the title of the movie who could Sadie Sink be playing really, and more! Plus, the guys dive into episode 7 of Daredevil: Born Again. Find out what they thought of Muse vs Daredevil round 2, whether Heather/Angela will know Matt's secret by season's end, whether Vanessa setup Wilson, the sinister turn for Daniel Blake, and much more! Follow Jong and Michael on social media. Bluesky: @one-punch.bsky.social & @producermike975.bsky.socialThreads: @onepunch______ & @producermike975Instagram: @onepunch______ & @producermike975Rate, review, like, and/or subscribe to Comicast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Castbox, Goodpods, Podcast Addicts, or wherever you get your podcasts! Feedback, questions, or topic ideas for the show? Email us at comicastpod@gmail.com
Sometimes Karma is Worse Than a Poison Apple This week on the podcast, Brian and Darryl are talking about the latest episode of Daredevil: Born Again, the penultimate episode of Reacher season 3, and the absolute BOMB of Snow White at the box office, and what Disney should do to recover. Episode Index Intro: 0:07 Snow Brown: 4:19 Daredevil: 22:43 Reacher: 36:27 Snow White Box Office News Disney's live-action remake of “Snow White” has experienced a disappointing performance at the box office. The film debuted with approximately $43 million in domestic earnings and a global total of around $87 million, both figures falling short of initial projections. Snow White Gets BRUTAL News As NEW Rachel Zegler Video GOES VIRAL & Makes Things WORSE For Disney https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qVfLvS_X2A Daredevil: Born Again (Disney+) Out of 5 Punisher Brand Sewer Bullets Darryl: 3.6/5 Brian: 3.6/5 Episode Title: Sic Semper Systema Director: Jeffrey Nachmanoff Writer: David Feige & Jess Wigutow Air Date: March 18, 2025 Summary: Murdock is confronted by Ayala’s niece, Angela del Toro, who believes the police are responsible for Ayala’s death. Murdock comforts her with hope that the killer will be brought to justice. At marriage counseling, Fisk and Vanessa discuss her affair with Adam and Glenn privately asks Vanessa if she feels safe around Fisk. Fisk’s plan to rebuild the city’s ports faces several hurdles, including bureaucratic procedures, gang in-fighting, and his protégé Daniel Blake drunkenly leaking details to BB who reports that Fisk is a union buster. Despite his anger, Fisk decides not to fire Blake when the latter expresses his deep loyalty. Murdock investigates the site of Ayala’s murder and finds a bullet casing with the Punisher’s symbol on it. He tracks down Castle and suggests that he should take responsibility for those who are misusing the Punisher symbol. Castle calls out Murdock for not killing Dex as retribution for Nelson’s death. Later that night, Murdock practices with his Daredevil billy clubs, Fisk eats dinner next to an imprisoned Adam, and the masked serial killer Muse drains blood from a victim. Reacher (Prime Video) Out of 5 You Just Can’t Call in the ATFs Darryl: 3.91/5 Brian: 4.1/5 Episode Title: L.A. Story Director: Sam Hill Writer: Penny Cox & Cait Duffy Air Date: March 20, 2025 Summary: Neagley interrogates Costopoulos, who tells her that Quinn murdered a family when business went wrong and is about to do the same to the Beck family. Reacher and Duffy, in Los Angeles, track down a drug dealer, Darien Prado, before having sex. Reacher and Duffy intercept Darien at a club and blackmail him into cooperating. He calls Zachary to meet, only for Reacher and Duffy to betray him. Zachary meets with Neagley, at Reacher’s command, and tells her that he and his son are in danger. Quinn visits a captive Teresa. Reacher and the team discover that the weapons are being sold to Yemeni buyers and that a terrorist act will be carried out in the United States. Zachary apologizes to Richard for his wrongdoing and says he will protect him at all costs. Zachary informs Reacher of the time and place of the exchange. Duffy and Villanueva involve the ATF, much to Reacher’s reluctance. On a call with Neagley, Reacher learns the exchange is actually taking place at Zachary’s house, and the place they are at is a setup. Contact Us The Infamous Podcast can be found wherever podcasts are found on the Interwebs, feel free to subscribe and follow along on social media. And don't be shy about helping out the show with a 5-star review on Apple Podcasts to help us move up in the ratings. @infamouspodcast facebook/infamouspodcast instagram/infamouspodcast stitcher Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play iHeart Radio contact@infamouspodcast.com Our theme music is ‘Skate Beat’ provided by Michael Henry, with additional music provided by Michael Henry. Find more at MeetMichaelHenry.com. The Infamous Podcast is hosted by Brian Tudor and Darryl Jasper, is recorded in Cincinnati, Ohio. The show is produced and edited by Brian Tudor. Subscribe today!
Happy Daredevil: Born Again release to all who celebrate! The guys discuss the long awaited return of the Devil of Hell's Kitchen. Find out what the guys thought of those shocking first 10 minutes, how this new show harkens back to the old show, the stylistic changes that they were fans of (and not fans of), the imposing prescense of Wilson Fisk, how Fisk's mayoral run mirrors real life, Bullseye vs Daredevil, how Fisk/Matt relate to each other so far, the diner scene, and more! Plus, the guys give their thoughts on the introduction of new the characters like Cherry, Heather Glenn, Kirsten McDuffie, Hector Ayala, Daniel Blake, and BB Urich. Follow Jong and Michael on social media. Bluesky: @one-punch.bsky.social & @producermike975.bsky.socialThreads: @onepunch______ & @producermike975Instagram: @onepunch______ & @producermike975Rate, review, like, and/or subscribe to Comicast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Castbox, Goodpods, Podcast Addicts, or wherever you get your podcasts! Feedback, questions, or topic ideas for the show? Email us at comicastpod@gmail.com
We are continuing our series this week after missing a week due to the Flu. Paul Prins of Urban Monasticism and Nathan Daniel Blake of the Appalachian Order have returned to continue a discussion they started on threads a few months ago talking about the historical and cyclical nature of Monastic movements and the nature of empires that cause them.For more on Urban Monasticism: https://urbanmonastic.org For Paul's book: https://urbanmonastic.org/books/way-of-life/ For more information on Ministry Misfits visit www.ministrymisfits.comTo become a Patron for Ministry Misfits visit www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsFor the Ministry Misfits Twitch: twitch.tv/ministrymisfit For more from KFM Broadcasting: www.kfmbroadcasting.com To support the KFM Broadcasting network: www.patreon.com/kfmbroadcasting Send us a textSupport the showFollow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Instagram: www.instagram.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/ministrymisfitBecome a Patron: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfits
We are continuing our series this week after missing a week due to the Flu. Paul Prins of Urban Monasticism and Nathan Daniel Blake of the Appalachian Order have returned to continue a discussion they started on threads a few months ago talking about the historical and cyclical nature of Monastic movements and the nature of empires that cause them.For more on Urban Monasticism: https://urbanmonastic.org For Paul's book: https://urbanmonastic.org/books/way-of-life/ For more information on Ministry Misfits visit www.ministrymisfits.comTo become a Patron for Ministry Misfits visit www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsFor the Ministry Misfits Twitch: twitch.tv/ministrymisfit For more from KFM Broadcasting: www.kfmbroadcasting.com To support the KFM Broadcasting network: www.patreon.com/kfmbroadcasting Send us a textSupport the showFollow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Instagram: www.instagram.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/ministrymisfitBecome a Patron: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfits
The Old Oak will be Ken Loach's last feature film and Sharuna Sagar was granted exclusive access behind the scenes of this landmark movie. She joins the 86-year-old director on his swansong as he brings together his loyal team for one last time. As with his previous two films, I, Daniel Blake and Sorry We Missed You, Ken returns to the North East of England, to tell the story of Syrian refugees who have been housed in an ex-mining village. With him are his long-standing partners, producer Rebecca O'Brien and writer Paul Laverty, and they reveal the secrets of Loach's success, with films like Kes, Cathy Come Home and The Wind That Shakes The Barley.
2025.01.18.Acél Réka rajongóknak: a Kölyökidőtől a Móka Kávézóig - sok kacaj, rengeteg szeplő!Én, Daniel Blake - a világhírű film alapján készült darab a Radnótiban Schneider Zoltánnal. Valló Péter rendező mesélKönyv a Városligetről! 250 év, 400 oldal, 300 kép - Lovas Dániel, szerzőGerlóczy Márton családi identitásthrillere! Itt a Fikció 3Szerelmem, Petőfi Zoltán? - időutazós ifjúsági regény a Pagonytól, Miklye Luzsányi Mónika könyve
Hoy nos clavamos a fondo en la más reciente película de Robert Eggers, su versión de "Nosferatu" que está en salas de cine y vale la pena. Hablamos además de la controversia que gira en torno a Anora y su protagonista. Es la película más nominada a los circuitos de premiaciones hasta el momento pero, ¿tendrá chance de llevarse uno grande? Unas primeras impresiones de la película animada lituana que se llama "Flow" y que nos fascinó. No hay invitado hoy pero sí hay tarea, dos películas de Ken Loach que recomienda Rafa: "The Old Oak" y "I, Daniel Blake". Bienvenidos a Brujas Cinema.
Thu, 19 Dec 2024 19:23:01 +0000 https://sozial.podigee.io/20-new-episode 8d4dbb0f078c14751d84bfdf232afe93 Früher baute man Schwellen in Häusern, damit beim Putzen kein schmutziges Wasser von einem Zimmer ins andere fliesst. Heute verstehen und verwenden wir den Begriff meistens im bildlichen Sinn – und negativ, nämlich als Hindernis oder Hürde. Zum Beispiel in der Bürokratie. Komplizierte Formulare, langwierige Abläufe, unpassende Schalteröffnungszeiten: Für manche Menschen sind das unüberwindbare Schwellen. «Als Sozialarbeitende müssen wir uns fragen, wie wir für unsere Adressat:innen solche Hürden herabsetzen können», sagt Bachelor-Co-Studiengangleiter Martin Biebricher im Gespräch mit Menno Labruyère und verweist auf das Konzept der Lebensweltorientierten Sozialen Arbeit: «Wir müssen die Perspektive wechseln und uns analytisch verstehend mit dem Alltag der Menschen auseinandersetzen.» Vielen Dank an die Hörerin, die sich den Begriff «Niederschwelligkeit, die» gewünscht hat. Über welchen Begriff stolpert ihr immer wieder? Schreibt an kommunikation.sozialearbeit@zhaw.ch - oder direkt an martin.biebricher@zhaw.ch In dieser Episode erwähnt: Hans Thiersch, Klaus Grunwald & Stefan Köngeter: Lebensweltorientierte Soziale Arbeit Der Film «I, Daniel Blake» von Ken Loach (Trailer) «sozipedia» ist eine Kolumne, die auch im Magazin «sozial» erscheint. Ihr könnt es gratis abonnieren. 20 full no ZHAW Soziale Arbeit
Kahleen Crawford started working in casting in 2000, setting up Kahleen Crawford Casting in 2006. She has been casting Ken Loach's films since 2003, including The Old Oak, Sorry We Missed You and I, Daniel Blake. Kahleen's other recent feature film credits include All of us Strangers directed by Andrew Haigh, for which she received a nomination for Best Casting at the 2024 BAFTA Film awards, The Outrun (dir: Nora Fingscheidt) starring Saoirse Ronan, Living directed by Oliver Hermanus, Maggie Gyllenhaal's directorial debut The Lost Daughter, and Harry Wootliff's first and second features Only You and True Things About Me. Recent television includes BBC/Showtime series The Woman In The Wall, two series of The Buccaneers for Apple Television, two series of Kudos/BBC's SAS: Rogue Heroes, two series of Screw (C4), two series of World Productions' thriller Vigil (BBC), Andrew Haigh's The North Water (BBC/AMC), two series of Sky Atlantic drama I Hate Suzie created by Billie Piper and Lucy Prebble, and all three series of BBC/HBO series His Dark Materials. Kahleen has recently completed casting on feature film Pillion for director Harry Lighton, Queen At Sea for director Lance Hammer, with Tom Courtenay, Juliette Binoche, and Anna Calder-Marshall, and All of You directed by William Bridges, starring Brett Goldstein and Imogen Poots. Photo is by Yellowbelly (if it's possible to credit).
Singer-songwriter Daniel Blake followed his heart, literally. As his girlfriend made a move to SoCal from Arizona, Blake came along and began working in construction… thinking he was leaving his musical pursuits behind. But he enjoyed the work, and the long drives provided ample time for melodies to develop and for songs to begin to write themselves. “Dreaming About It” is one of those songs and you’ll likely hear it as he and his full band kick-start School Night at Bardot for the very first show of the season(!).
The Bank of Japan jolted global markets after its recent decision to raise interest rates. Our experts break down the effects the move could have on the country's economy, currency and stock market.----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist.Daniel Blake: And I'm Daniel Blake, from the Asia Pacific and Emerging Market Equity Strategy Team.Chetan Ahya: On this episode of the podcast, we will cover a topic that has been a big concern for global investors: Japan's rate hike and its effect on markets.It's Thursday, August 22nd at 6pm in Hong Kong.On July 31st, Japan's central bank made a bold move. For only the second time in 17 years, it raised interest rates. It lifted its benchmark rates to around 0.25 percent from its previous range of 0 to 0.1 percent. And at the press conference, BOJ Governor Ueda struck a more hawkish tone on the BOJ rate path than markets anticipated. Compounded with investors concern about US growth, this move jolted global equity markets and bond markets. The Japan equity market entered the quickest bear market in history. It lost 20 percent over three days.Well, a lot has happened since early August. So, I'm here with Daniel to give you an update.Daniel Blake: Chetan, before I can give you an update on what the market implications are of all this, let's make sense of what the macro-outlook is for Japan and what the Bank of Japan is really looking to achieve.I know that following that July monetary policy meeting, we heard from Deputy Governor Uchida san, who said that the bank would not raise its policy rates while financial and capital markets remain unstable.What is your view on the Bank of Japan policy outlook and the key macro-outlook for Japan more broadly?Chetan Ahya: Well, firstly, I think the governor's comments in the July policy meeting were more hawkish than expected and after the market's volatility, deputy governor did come out and explain the BOJ's thought process more clearly. The most important point explained there was that they will not hike policy rates in an environment where markets are volatile -- and that has given the comfort to market that BOJ will not be taking up successive rate hikes in an early manner.But ultimately when you're thinking about the outlook of BOJ's policy path, it will be determined by what happens to underlying wage growth and inflation trend. And on that front, wage growth has been accelerating. And we also think that inflation will be remaining at a moderate level and that will keep BOJ on the rate hike path, but those rate hikes will be taken up in a measured manner.In our base case, we are expecting the BOJ to hike by 25 basis points in January policy meeting next year, with a risk that they could possibly hike early in December of this year.Daniel Blake: And after an extended period of weakness, the Japanese yen appreciated sharply after the remarks. What drove this and what are the macro repercussions for the broader outlook?Chetan Ahya: We think that the US growth scare from the weaker July nonfarm payroll data, alongside a hawkish BOJ Governor Ueda's comments, led markets to begin pricing in more policy rate convergence between the US and Japan. This resulted in unwinding of the yen carry trade and a rapid appreciation of yen against the dollar.For now, our strategists believe that the near-term risk of further yen carry trade unwinding has lessened. We will closely watch the incoming US growth and labor market data for signs of the US slowdown and its impact on the yen. In the base case, our US Economics team continues to see a soft landing in the US and for the Fed to cut rates by three times this year from September, reaching a terminal of 3.625 by June 2025.Based on our US and BOJ rate path, our macro strategists see USD/JPY at 146 by year end. As it stands, our Japan inflation forecast already incorporates these yen forecasts, but if yen does appreciate beyond these levels on a sustainable basis, this would impart some further downside to our inflation forecast.Daniel Blake: And there's another key event to consider. Prime Minister Kishida san announced on August 14th that he will not seek re-election as President of The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in late September, and hence will have a new leader of Japan. Will this development have any impact on economic policy or the markets in your view?Chetan Ahya: The number of potential candidates means it's too early to tell. We think a major reversal in macro policies will be unlikely, though the timing of elections will likely have a bearing on BOJ.For example, after the September party leadership election, the new premier could then call for an early election in October; and in this scenario, we think likelihood of a BOJ move at its September and October policy meeting would be further diminished.So, Daniel, keeping in mind the macro backdrop that we just discussed, how are you interpreting the recent equity market volatility? And what do you expect for the rest of 2024 and into 2025?Daniel Blake: We do see that volatility in Japan, as extreme as it was, being primarily technically driven. It does reflect some crowding of various investor types into pockets of the equity market and levered strategies, as we see come through with high frequency trading, as well as carry trades that were exacerbated by dollar yen positions being unwound very quickly.But with the market resetting, and as we look into the rest of 2024 and 2025, we see the two key engines of nominal GDP reflation in Japan and corporate reform still firing. As you lay out, the BOJ is trying to find its way back towards neutral; it's not trying to end the cycle. And corporate governance is driving better capital allocation from the corporate sector.As a result, we see almost 10 percent earnings growth this year and next year, and the market stands cheap versus its historical valuation ranges.So, as we look ahead, we think into 2025, we should see the Japanese equity benchmark, the TOPIX index, setting fresh all-time highs. As a result, we continue to prefer Japan equities versus emerging markets. And we recommend that US dollar-based investors leave their foreign exchange exposure unhedged, which will position them to benefit from further strengthening in the Japanese yen.Chetan Ahya: So, which parts of the market look most attractive following the BOJ's rate hike and market disruptions to you?Daniel Blake: Yes, we do prefer domestic exposures relative to exporters. They'll be better protected from any further strengthening in the Japanese yen, and we also see a broad-based corporate governance reform agenda supporting shareholder returns coming out of these domestic sectors. They'll benefit from that stronger, price and wage outlook with an improved margin outlook.And we also see that capex beneficiaries with a corporate reform angle are likely to do well in this overall agenda of pursuing greater economic security and digitalization. So that includes key sectors like defense, real estate, and construction.And Chetan, what would you say are the key risks to your view?Chetan Ahya: We think the key risk would be if the US faces a deeper slowdown or an outright recession. While Japan is better placed today than in the past cycles, it would nonetheless be a setback for Japan's economy. In this scenario, Japan's export growth would face downward pressures given weakening external demand.The Japanese corporate sector has also around 17 percent of its revenue coming from North America. Besides a deeper Fed rate cut cycle, will mean that the policy rate differentials between the US and Japan will narrow significantly. This will pose further appreciation pressures on the yen, which will weigh on inflation, corporate profits, and the growth outlook.And from your perspective, Daniel, what should investors watch closely?Daniel Blake: We would agree that the first order risk for Japan equities is if the US slips into a hard landing, and we do see that the dollar yen in that outlook is likely to fall even further. Now we shouldn't see any FX (foreign exchange) driven downgrades until we start bringing the yen down below 140, but we would also see the operating environment turning negative for Japan in that outlook.So, putting that aside, given our house view of the soft landing in the US economy, we think the second thing investors should watch is certainly the LDP leadership election contest, and the reform agenda of the incoming cabinet.Prime Minister Kishida san's tenure has been focused on economic security and has fostered further corporate governance reform alongside the Japan Stock Exchange. And this emphasis on getting household savings into investment has been another key pillar of the new capitalism strategy. So, these focus areas have been very positive for Japan equities, and we should trust -- but verify -- the commitment of a new leadership team to these policy initiatives.Chetan Ahya: Daniel, it was great to hear your perspective. This is an evolving story. We'll keep our eye on it. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Daniel Blake: Great speaking with you, Chetan.Chetan Ahya: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.
From 2013 to 2023, 11 年, Blue Is the Warmest Color in 2013,Winter Sleep in 2014,Youth in 2015, I, Daniel Blake in 2016,La La Land in 2017, Burning in 2018, A Sun in 2019, Druk in 2020, Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy in 2021, After Sun in 2022, and Past Lives in 2023.
Nathan Daniel Blake is back this week and we are jumping into a new discussion that we started a few weeks ago. Join us as we look into Andrew's blog on the phrase "swords to plowshares" and what this means in relation to how we view the Scriptures, the Messiah, and our role in relation to both.For the Blog mentioned in this week's episode: https://www.ministrymisfits.com/post/swords-or-plowsFor Patreon: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsFor misfits merch: https://www.ministrymisfits.com/category/all-productsSend us a Text Message.Support the Show.Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Instagram: www.instagram.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/ministrymisfitBecome a Patron: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsGet Some Misfits Merch: www.ministrymisfits.com/shopGet some TIQVAH Gear: www.ministrymisfits.com/tiqvahfundraiser
Nathan Daniel Blake is back this week and we are jumping into a new discussion that we started a few weeks ago. Join us as we look into Andrew's blog on the phrase "swords to plowshares" and what this means in relation to how we view the Scriptures, the Messiah, and our role in relation to both.For the Blog mentioned in this week's episode: https://www.ministrymisfits.com/post/swords-or-plowsFor Patreon: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsFor misfits merch: https://www.ministrymisfits.com/category/all-productsSend us a Text Message.Support the Show.Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Instagram: www.instagram.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/ministrymisfitBecome a Patron: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsGet Some Misfits Merch: www.ministrymisfits.com/shopGet some TIQVAH Gear: www.ministrymisfits.com/tiqvahfundraiser
This week, I'm thrilled to chat with Los Angeles-based producer, Billy Lefler. Billy has secured countless sync placements for his artists and collaborated with major publishers like Warner Chapel, Secret Road, and Position Music. We'll dive deep into the life of a highly successful producer and have a bit of fun along the way. In this episode, Billy and I reminisce about the iconic Death Star studio where we've both spent many nights recording. We explore what it's like to be immersed in LA's vibrant music scene and how it fuels creativity and opportunities. Billy shares invaluable insights on collaborating online versus in-person and the magic that happens when artists and producers can vibe off each other in the same room. We also discuss his approach to making music that resonates authentically, aiming for sync success without compromising artistic integrity. Tune in to learn from Billy's experiences and get inspired by his journey in the music licensing world. Guest Bio: Billy Lefler's journey through the music industry is marked by the accolades he's received and the platinum success of his projects. At the heart of his career lies a dedication to storytelling through sound, facilitated by his diverse roles predominantly as a producer, alongside being a songwriter and multi-instrumentalist. From the indie pop charm of Ingrid Michaelson to the rock anthems crafted for Dashboard Confessional and the dynamic beats for Gym Class Heroes, Billy's adaptability shines through. Working with artists like Avril Lavigne, Patrick Stump of Fall Out Boy, and America's Got Talent standout Mandy Harvey, he has showcased his capacity to excel across various musical landscapes. Billy's contributions have not only garnered industry accolades but have also made a lasting impact on the music scene. His production work on Ingrid Michaelson's hit "Be Ok" is a prime example of his talent for creating catchy, emotionally resonant tracks that connect with audiences far and wide. Moreover, his production efforts helped propel Laura Jansen's album Bells to platinum status in The Netherlands, solidifying his role as a pivotal figure in music production on an international scale. Beyond his collaborations with individual artists, Billy's skills and vision have been recognized and sought after by leading record labels and publishers, such as Warner Chappell, Secret Road, and Position Music. Billy Lefler's knack for sync licensing underscores his unparalleled ability to weave music into the fabric of popular culture. His success in securing placements for the artists he works with in TV shows, advertisements, and movie trailers include: Ad spots for McDonald's and Evian Water, episodes from "The Blacklist," "Grey's Anatomy," and "The Vampire Diaries," “Pretty Little Lies,” “So You Think You Can Dance,” “One Tree Hill,” “Switched At Birth,” “Smallville,” various movie trailer campaigns, and a significant highlight was the placement of Daniel Blake's cover of Dido's "Here With Me" in the season finale of the CBS show "Roswell." About the Hosts: We're Sonnet Simmons and John Clinebell, 2 indie artists who have found success and creative fulfillment through licensing our music for ads, TV shows and films. We were once so disheartened and discouraged that our music wasn't being noticed or valued through traditional methods. So we both started on a journey to find another way. For us, that “third door” was sync! And what we discovered is a lot better than we could have ever even imagined…[Find out more here] Resources From This Episode: 2Indie - Visit our website for more resources and information on how to get YOUR music signed Sync Society - Want to join our exclusive online sync community, with weekly LIVE networking and coaching calls? @2indieofficial - Follow us on Instagram Sync It! Music Licensing Community - Follow us on Facebook Billy's Website - Learn more about our guest and their work
There are a lot of passages throughout Scripture that are misunderstood or misused. This week, Nathan Daniel Blake joined me to discuss a few of those passages related to the acceptance of our call to ministry. What's going on in Luke 4:24, Matthew 10:14, & Acts 16? What's the deal with dust, the Holy Spirit, & Hometown Prophets?Learn more about Nathan Daniel Blake: https://www.storyofndblake.com/ Check out the new website at www.ministrymisfits.com To become a Patron for Ministry Misfits visit www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitshttps://www.ministrymisfits.com/category/all-productsSupport the Show.Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Instagram: www.instagram.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/ministrymisfitBecome a Patron: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsGet Some Misfits Merch: www.ministrymisfits.com/shopGet some TIQVAH Gear: www.ministrymisfits.com/tiqvahfundraiser
There are a lot of passages throughout Scripture that are misunderstood or misused. This week, Nathan Daniel Blake joined me to discuss a few of those passages related to the acceptance of our call to ministry. What's going on in Luke 4:24, Matthew 10:14, & Acts 16? What's the deal with dust, the Holy Spirit, & Hometown Prophets?Learn more about Nathan Daniel Blake: https://www.storyofndblake.com/ Check out the new website at www.ministrymisfits.com To become a Patron for Ministry Misfits visit www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitshttps://www.ministrymisfits.com/category/all-productsSupport the Show.Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Instagram: www.instagram.com/ministrymisfitFollow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/ministrymisfitBecome a Patron: www.patreon.com/ministrymisfitsGet Some Misfits Merch: www.ministrymisfits.com/shopGet some TIQVAH Gear: www.ministrymisfits.com/tiqvahfundraiser
Japan and India are currently set to lead growth in these markets, but a higher-for-longer rate environment in the U.S. could favor China, Hong Kong and others, according to our analyst.----- Transcript -----Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia & Emerging Market Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss whether U.S. macro resilience is too much of a good thing when it comes to its impact on Asia's equity markets.It's Friday 19th of April at 10am in Singapore.Our U.S. economics team has substantially lifted its forecast for 2024 and 2025 GDP growth following strong migration boosted activity and employment trends. Recent inflation readings have been bumpy, but our team still sees it moderating over the summer as core services and housing prices cool off. While the market has been focused on this silver lining of stronger global growth, the clouds are rolling in from expectations of a shallower and later easing of global monetary policy.Our team now believes that the first Fed rate cut won't come until July but does see two additional cuts coming in November and December. We've made similar adjustments in our outlook for Asia-ex-China's monetary policy easing cycle, seeing it coming later and shallower. Meanwhile, in Japan, our economists now expect two further hikes from the Bank of Japan -- in July this year, and again in January next year -- taking policy rates up to 0.5 per cent.But how does all this leave the Asia and EM equity outlook? In a word, mixed.We see this driving more divergence within Asia and EM, depending on how exposed each market is to stronger global growth, a stronger U.S. dollar or impacted by higher interest rates. On the positive side, Taiwan, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea have the most direct North American revenue exposure. And for Japan, the strong US dollar is also positive through the translation of foreign revenues back at this historically weak yen. However, in the short run, we do need to be mindful of any price momentum reversal as April is normally seasonally weak, and we do see dollar-yen approaching 155. So, any FX (foreign exchange) intervention could sharpen a price momentum reversal.Next up, we're paying close attention to India's equity market, where we have a secularly bullish view. India has remained resilient to date, consistent with our thesis that macro stability has become a key driver of the bull market. And this is in sharp contrast to prior cycles. For example, during the Taper tantrum of 2013, where India saw a sudden and sharp bear market as Fed expectations shifted.On the negative side then, we are seeing a breakdown in correlations of some markets with these higher Fed funds expectations, including in Indonesia and Brazil where policy space is being constrained, and in Australia where valuations were pushed up on hopes of an RBA easing cycle that won't come until next year in our view.So, this is indeed a mixed picture for Asia and EM, but we retain our core views that market leadership will continue coming from Japan and India through 2024. And so, what's the risk from here? The larger risk to Asia and EM markets, we think, comes from an even more inflationary and hawkish scenario where the Fed is forced to recommence rate hikes, ultimately bearing the risk of driving a hard landing to bring inflation back to target.In this scenario, we could see a pivot in leadership away from markets with high US revenue exposure, such as Taiwan and Japan, towards more domestically oriented and resilient late cycle markets, such as an emerging ASEAN partner, and potentially China and Hong Kong -- if additional stimulus is forthcoming there.Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Many investors believe that the value of Japanese stocks will dip as the yen gets stronger. Here's why we're forecasting ~10% growth.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategy team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss one of the big debates in the market around Japanese equities in 2024. It's Thursday, January 4th at 10 a.m. in Singapore.. As we kick off the new year, one of the most debated investor questions is whether Japanese equities can again perform well if the Yen is now over weakening, but instead strengthens over 2024 as expectations of Fed rate cuts play out. The market is understandably concerned that if the Yen appreciates significantly, Japanese equities will underperform, given the impact on competitiveness and the effects translation of foreign earnings. As a result, global investors remain underweight on Japanese equities versus their benchmark weight, despite the notably improved sentiment on the underlying Japanese economy. So in contrast to these concerns, we believe that Japanese equities and the Yen can simultaneously rally in 2024, which will mean even stronger returns for unhedged dollar based investors than for the local index. Our currency strategists forecast modest further gains in the Yen, with a pick up to 140 against the US dollar by end 2024 versus 143 today. And despite this, we see corporate earnings growth still achieving 9% in 2024, underpinned by nominal GDP recovery and corporate reforms. So what is the reason for the break in the usually negative relationship between the yen and Japanese equities? We still see three drivers supporting the market. First, there's the return of nominal GDP growth. The Japanese economy is finally exiting deflation that has been prevalent since the 1990s, and we believe a virtuous cycle of higher nominal growth in Japan has started thanks to joint efforts from the Bank of Japan and the corporate sector to move to a positive feedback loop between price hikes and wage growth, underpinned by a productive CapEx cycle. Our chief Japan economist, Takeshi Yamaguchi, forecasts nominal GDP growth for 2023 to have achieved 5%, but to remain above 3% growth in 2024, and a healthy 2 to 2.5 % for the foreseeable future. The second driver is corporate reforms, which have been the most crucial driver of underlying Japanese equities performance, and we expect the trend improvement of return on equity to continue. The sea change in corporate governance in Japan has led to major changes in buyback and dividend policies, which combined are almost quadruple the levels they were at ten years ago. And we're seeing a broadening trend of underlying business restructuring underpinned by more engagement from investors, both foreign and domestic. Finally, Japan has been a net beneficiary of investment inflows and CapEx orders in the transition to a more multipolar world. And with those flows, while equity valuations are cheap to history, in contrast to the US market, we expect them to be supported by further foreign inflows and domestic inflows that will be boosted by the launch of the new Nippon Individual Savings Account Program this month. Bottom line Japan equities remain our top pick globally. We see the TOPIX index moving further into a secular bull market with our December 2024 target for the index standing at 2,600, which implies 10% upside in Yen terms and more in US dollar terms from current levels. Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Sybil is joined by special guests Michael Littledike and Daniel Blake. They delve into the creative ways a donor can use Donor Advised Funds (DAFs) to their advantage. The interview will shed light on the interplay between charitable giving, wealth management, and personal philanthropic impact. The interviewees highlight key points, including the benefit of receiving an immediate tax deduction when donating to a DAF, and the flexibility to invest those funds for charitable purposes over a longer time horizon. Daniel and Michael also delve into ideas for reforms to ensure that DAFs are used effectively and responsibly.Episode Highlights:The benefits of DAFsThe role of experts in helping donors make informed decisionsAnswering the concerns surrounding DAFsMichael Littledike Bio:Michael founded Capita Financial Network in 2008 with the vision of creating a collection of financial professionals to build a complete wealth management experience for the clients of Capita. Capita Financial Network continues to grow as the company fulfills its mission to "create the optimal wealth management experience." Mike spends most of his time building the company, finding strategic partnerships, presenting on financial topics, and building adventure-packed events for like-minded business owners to synergize. Mike and his wife, Britney, hold their family close and use their charitable opportunities to support Down Syndrome foundations. The Littledikes support their community and the next generation through UVU's Scholarship Program and the Success in Education nonprofit. They are also passionate about their support for veterans as they fund special experiences and once-in-a-lifetime opportunities through Operation Pay it Forward at their ranch in Texas.Daniel Blake Bio:As CEO, Daniel leads the team at UI Charitable Advisors and spearheads initiatives that empower high-net-worth individuals to achieve their philanthropic objectives while nurturing the next generation of social impact leaders. Previously, he was the CEO and co-founder of EcoScraps, which Scott's Miracle-Gro acquired (NYSE: SMG), where he was a Director for their sustainability and hydroponic business unit. He has led sustainability initiatives with the US State Department, United Nations World Food Programme, Amazon, Google, Home Depot, Walmart, and some of the world's largest food companies etcDaniel has been named one of the top Social Impact Entrepreneurs in the USA by Bloomberg Businessweek and has been featured as the cover story in both Inc. Magazine and Forbes. Daniel studied English at BYU where he currently serves as an adjunct professor and is on the board of advisors for the Ballard Center for Social Impact.Links:CAPITA https://www.capitafinancialnetwork.comINSTAGRAM https://www.instagram.com/capita_financialCharitable Advisors https://www.uicharitable.orgIf you enjoyed this episode, listen to these as well:https://www.doyourgood.com/blog/152-Whats-the-Big-Deal-About-Donor-Advised-Fundshttps://www.doyourgood.com/blog/151-The-Ins-and-Outs-of-Donor-Advised-Funds-with-Andrea-Rushhttps://www.doyourgood.com/blog/148-Sybil-Speak-The-Ins-and-Outs-of-Donor-Advised-Funds-and-Pooled%20FundsCrack the Code: Sybil's Successful Guide to PhilanthropyBecome even better at what you do as Sybil teaches you the strategies as well as the tools you'll need to avoid mistakes and make a career out of philanthropy.Sybil offers resources that include special free short video mini-courses, templates, and key check lists and words of advice summarized in easy to review pdfs. Check out Sybil's website with all the latest opportunities to learn from Sybil at www.doyourgood.comConnect with Do Your Goodhttps://www.facebook.com/doyourgoodhttps://www.instagram.com/doyourgoodWould you like to talk with Sybil directly?Send in your inquiries through her website https://www.doyourgood.com/ or you can email her directly at sybil@doyourgood.com
Sybil is joined by special guests Michael Littledike and Daniel Blake. They delve into the creative ways a donor can use Donor Advised Funds (DAFs) to their advantage. The interview will shed light on the interplay between charitable giving, wealth management, and personal philanthropic impact. The interviewees highlight key points, including the benefit of receiving an immediate tax deduction when donating to a DAF, and the flexibility to invest those funds for charitable purposes over a longer time horizon. Daniel and Michael also delve into ideas for reforms to ensure that DAFs are used effectively and responsibly. {You can hear the full Episode on Monday November 6th}
With China at risk of falling into a debt deflation loop, lessons from Japan's deflation journey could provide some insight.----- Transcript -----Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from the Morgan Stanley Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategy Team. Laura Wang: And I'm Laura Wang, Chief China Equity Strategist. Daniel Blake: And on this special episode of the podcast, we'll discuss what lessons Japan's deflation journey can offer for China. It's Thursday, October 26th at 10 a.m. in Singapore and Hong Kong. Daniel Blake: So in the period from 1991 to 2001, known as Japan's lost decade, Japan suffered through a prolonged economic stagnation and price deflation. While the corporate sector stopped deleveraging in the early 2000's. It wasn't until the Abenomics program, introduced under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2013, that Japan emerged from deflation and started the process of a gradual recovery in corporate profitability. China's economic trajectory has been very different from Japan's over the last 30 years, but we now see some parallels emerging. Indeed, the risk of falling into a Japanese style stagnation is becoming more acute over the past year as a deep cyclical downturn in the property sector combines with the structural challenge that our economists call the 3D journey of debt, demographics and deflation. So, Laura, before we dig into the comparison between China and Japan's respective journeys to set the stage, can you give us a quick snapshot of where China's equity market is right now and what you expect for the rest of the year? Laura Wang: Sure, Daniel. China market has been through a quite volatile ten months so far this year with a very exciting start given the post COVID reopening. However, the strong macro momentum didn't sustain. Property sales is still falling somewhere between 30 to 50% each month on a year over year basis. And challenges from local government debt issue and early signs of deflationary pressure suggest that turn around for corporate earnings growth could still take longer to happen. We had downgraded China within the global emerging market context at the beginning of August, mainly out of these concerns, and we think more patience is needed at this point. We would like to see more meaningful easing measures to stimulate the demand and help reflate the economy, as well as clear a road map to address some of the structural issues, particularly around the local government debt problem. In contrast to China, Japan's equity market is very strong right now, and Morgan Stanley's outlook continues to be bullish from here. So, Daniel, why is it valuable to compare Japan's deflationary journey since the 1990s and China's recent challenges? What are some of the bigger similarities? Daniel Blake: I think we'll come back to the 3D's. So on the first to them, on debt we do have China's aggregate total debt around 290% of GDP. So that compares with Japan, which was about 265% of GDP back in 1990. So this is similar in the sense that we do have this aggregate debt burden sitting and needs to be managed. Secondly, on demographics, we've got a long expected but now very evident downturn in the share of the labor force that is in working age and an outright decline in working age population in China. And this is going to be a factor for many years ahead. China's birth rate or total number of births is looking to come down to around 8 million this year, compared with 28 million in 1990. And then a third would be deflation. And so we are seeing this broaden out in China, particularly the aggregate GDP level. So in Japan's case, that deflation was mainly around asset price bubbles. In China's case, we're seeing this more broadly with excess capacity in a number of industrial sectors, including new economy sectors. And then this one 4th D which is similar in both Japan's case and China now, and that's the globalization or de-risking of supply chains, as you prefer. When we're looking at this in Japan's case, Japan did face a more hostile trade environment in the late 1980s, particularly with protectionism coming through from the US. And we've seen that play out in the multipolar world for China. So a number of similarities which we can group under 4D's here. Laura Wang: And what are some of the key differences between Japan/China? Daniel Blake: So the first key difference is we think the asset price bubble was more extreme in Japan. Secondly, in China, most of the debt is held by local governments and state owned enterprises rather than the private corporate sector. And thirdly, China is at a lower stage of development than Japan in terms of per capita incomes and the potential for underlying growth. So, Laura, when you're looking ahead, what would you like to see from Chinese policymakers here, both in the near term as well as the longer term? Laura Wang: As far as what we can observe, Chinese policymakers has already started to roll out a suite of measures on the fronts of capital markets, monetary and fiscal policy side over the past 12 months. And we do expect more to come. Particularly on the capital market reform side, there are additional efforts that we think policymakers can help enforce. In our view, those actions could include capital market restructuring, funds flow and liquidity support, as well as further efforts encouraging enhancement of shareholder returns. To be more specific, for example, introducing more benchmark indices with a focus on corporate governance and shareholder returns, further tightening and enforcing the listing rules for public companies, m ore incentives for long term institutional participation, improving capital flow management for foreign investors, and implementing incentives to encourage dividend payouts and share buybacks. Those could all work quite well. Regulatory and even legislative support to help implement these measures would be extremely crucial. Daniel Blake: And what is your outlook for China's medium to long term return on equity path from here? And what are the key catalysts you're watching for that? Laura Wang: Given some of the structure challenges we discussed earlier, we do see a much wider forked path for China's long term growth ROE trajectory. We see MSCI China's long term ROE stabilizing at around 11% in the next 5 to 7 years in our base case. This means there should still be up to around two percentage point of recovery upside from the current levels, thanks to a combination of corporate self-help, the product cycle, policy support from the top and the low base effect. However, further upside above 11% will require a significant reflationary effort from the policymakers, both short term cyclical and long term structural, in combination with a more favorable geopolitical environment. Therefore, we believe prompt and forceful actions from policymakers to stabilize the economy to avoid more permanent negative impact on corporate and consumer behaviors are absolutely needed at this point. Now, let me turn this back to you, Daniel. What is your outlook for Japan's return on equity journey from here, and are there any risks to your bullish view? Daniel Blake: So we have seen Japan looking back from 2013 to now move from below book value in terms of aggregate valuations and a return on equity of just 4%, so much lower than even your bear case. So it's moved up from that level to 9% currently and we're seeing valuations moving up accordingly. We think that's further to go and we think Japan can actually reach 12% sustainable return on equity by 2025 and that's helped by return of nominal GDP growth in Japan and further implementation of governance improvements at the corporate level. So in terms of the risks, I think they are primarily external. We do see Japan's domestic economy in a pretty good place. We think BOJ can exit yield curve control and negative rates without a major shock. So externally we are watching China's risks of moving into a debt deflation loop, as we're discussing here, but also the potential impacts if the US or a global recession were to play out. So clearly we're watching very closely the Fed's efforts and global central bank efforts to achieve a soft landing here. Daniel Blake: So, Laura, thanks for taking the time to talk. Laura Wang: Sure. It's been great speaking with you, Daniel. Daniel Blake: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
The shooting starts on The Old Oak and Sharuna Sagar is there to witness Ken Loach's unique style of directing. Throughout his career from Kes to The Wind That Shakes The Barley to I, Daniel Blake, the 87-year-old film-maker does not like to tell the cast what is going to happen in the next scene. He explains his reasons, while star Dave Turner reveals what it is like to be surprised every day on set.
While recent news of a potential debt deflation loop in China's equity market is causing concern for investors, Japan's equity market resilience may bring optimism.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategy team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss the Japanese equity market vis-a-vis China. It's Thursday, August 31st at 9 a.m. in Singapore. We recently did a three part series on this show focusing on our economic and market outlook for Japan. We discussed a bullish view on Japan equities, which is driven by three powerful drivers of outperformance coming together, namely macro, micro and the transition to a multipolar world. Recently, however, there's been investor concern about the potential impact on Japan from a Chinese debt-deflation loop, that is a scenario where prices fall, debt rises and economic growth stagnates, and this is the risk that I will discuss today. As a reminder, our economists came into 2023 flagging Japan as a standout developed market for growth momentum. In contrast to a U.S and European slowdown, as Japan continues to benefit from COVID reopening, ongoing stimulatory policy and a competitive currency. Since then, we have seen upside surprises, such as in wages and capital investments amid what we see as confirmation of a move into a structurally higher nominal GDP growth path. Indeed, Japan's recent second quarter GDP figures confirmed that trend, with a surge in real and nominal GDP to 6% and 12% annualized respectively. Following this result, our economists have doubled their 2023 GDP forecast to 2.2%, and this stands in contrast to China's GDP growth trend, where our economists have been reducing forecasts and will see nominal GDP growth slow below that of Japan to 4.8% over the last year. So the key exception to a generally bullish picture for Japan has been its linkages to China. While this may appear to be a legitimate investor concern for the market as a whole, it's important to note that Japanese revenues are driven much more by the U.S and Europe, which together make up a quarter of total sales. Instead, China makes up just 5% less than many assume, and far lower than that of Singapore, Taiwan, Australia or South Korea. However, there are some pockets of China exposure that we note, including in semis and semi-cap equipment, electronic components and factory automation. Another reason for our optimism about Japan's equity market resilience amid the slowdown in China is that China exposed Stocks in Japan have almost fully unwound the outperformance seen during the early COVID zero and post-COVID reopening phases. In contrast, Asia-Pacific ex-Japan companies with high exposures to China, many of them in the technology or resources sector, stand close to their relative highs. So while we do see from here less upside to the aggregate MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the Tokyo Stock Price Index, known as TOPIX, after the post October rally, we do see good reason for Japanese equities to continue to outperform. Valuations on a 12 month forward basis are in line or slightly below their ten year historical averages, and we expect 10% earnings growth in 2023 and 2024 as that nominal GDP growth recovery and corporate reform rolls through the market. The key downside risk will, of course, be not just the Chinese debt deflation loop, but adding on top a US recession, which ironically would be similar to what happened in the 1990s, when in Japan, imbalances, excess leverage and insufficient policy stimulus tipped the economy into structural deflation and stagnation. So while that risk is more relevant for China and Japan is in a completely different situation now, we are closely monitoring the risks of this bear case scenario and what that would mean for parts of the Asia and emerging markets universe. So thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
The podcast is fully back up and running again, and this time, we turn our attention to the return of Hannibal Lecter. 2001's Hannibal was the long-awaited return of Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lecter to the big screen, following 1991's The Silence Of The Lambs. But the original director didn't return. The original screenwriter didn't return. One of the two Oscar-winning stars didn't return. And a chance meeting in Malta - as Ridley Scott was shooting Gladiator - was what helped push things forward.The gestation of I, Daniel Blake was a little more straightforward, as writer Paul Laverty and director Ken Loach went about their familiar process: this time, though, they'd be making a film with fairly quick ramifications. What's more, casting a lead actor who was just on the verge of jacking it all in...---Find Simon on Twitter and Bluesky at @simonbrew, and the podcast can be found at @filmstories Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The writer James Slaymaker, author of Time is Luck: The Cinema of Michael Mann, returns to the pod from Southampton for a discussion of selected works from the veteran British filmmaker Ken Loach, who at age 87 is about to release what is said to be his final feature, The Old Oak. Ken Loach's 1969 feature Kes is a staple of the British school curriculum to this day and his 2016 film I, Daniel Blake won the Palme d'or at Cannes and was a big hit in the UK. We discuss the role Loach recently played in British politics, first allied with the Labour Party under the left-wing leadership of Jeremy Cornyn and then ousted from Labour in the ideological purge of the Keir Starmer era. We discuss three of his features on this episode: the controversial 1990 political thriller Hidden Agenda with Brian Cox and Frances McDormand, 2019's gig economy drama Sorry We Missed You, and a lesser-seen Loach film from 2001, The Navigators. These works offer a critique from the left of several decades of austerity policies in the UK, the horrors of privatization and the overall exploitation of workers by management. Plus: RIP William Friedkin. Become a patron of the podcast to access to exclusive episodes every month, including this summer's entire Miami Vice sidebar series. Over 30% of Junk Filter episodes are exclusively available to patrons. To support this show directly please subscribe at https://www.patreon.com/junkfilter Follow James Slaymaker on Twitter. James' book Time is Luck: The Cinema of Michael Mann, is now available in paperback and Kindle. Hidden Agenda is currently available to watch on Tubi. Sorry We Missed You is streaming on Kanopy (if you have a library card). And The Navigators is currently available to watch on YouTube. McDonald's UK advert directed by Ken Loach, 1991 Trailer for Hidden Agenda (Loach, 1990) Trailer for The Navigators (Loach, 2001) Trailer for Sorry We Missed You (Loach, 2019) “Ken Loach's Agenda Is to Rile the British Establishment” by David Gritten, for the Los Angeles Times, January 1, 1991 “Democracy is Dead in Keir Starmer's Labour” by Ken Loach, for The Guardian, September 28, 2021
With positive GDP growth and increasing revenues, Japan equities are becoming a preferred market globally. ----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Daniel Blake: And I'm Daniel Blake, Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist. Chetan Ahya: Over the last two days in this special three part series on Japan, we discussed a constructive outlook for Japan's economy and the various structural reforms it's undergoing. Today in this final episode focused on Japan, we'll talk about the key investment implications of these macro trends. It's Friday, July 21st at 9 a.m. in Hong Kong and Singapore. Chetan Ahya: Dan, you've been highlighting Japanese equities as our most preferred asset within the region and globally. Your bullish view is based on three powerful drivers of outperformance coming together, namely macro, micro and multipolar world. Starting with the macro, our economists expect an uplift in nominal GDP growth trend, how does this benefit Japanese equities? Daniel Blake: So we see this being another era for the Japanese market, having first exited deflation in 2013 with the initial Abenomics program, but now moving into positive nominal GDP growth from 2023 onwards. It's hugely important for companies who have been hemmed in with an inability to lift prices and hence they have been unable or unwilling to lift base wages or dividend levels. So this new pricing flexibility in top line growth supports the equity market in five key ways. First, we're going to see faster revenue growth. Second, we think this will mean wider operating profit margins given fixed cost leverage will now be working in favor of the bottom line. Third, financial sector earnings have been repressed by ongoing Bank of Japan policy, but a gradual process of normalization should help release the earnings power of Japanese financials. Fourth, domestic portfolios are highly risk averse and focused on cash and deposits. We think there will be some ongoing shift towards higher return assets, including equities. And finally, we think valuations for the equity market can continue to trend higher on convergence with global norms. Chetan Ahya: And on micro front, we've been discussing about the improvement in corporate governance for almost a decade now. What's changed this year? Daniel Blake: Yes, the environment has been changing for the better part of a decade, really since the introduction of the corporate governance and stewardship codes back in 2015 and 16. We are seeing progressive improvement with record levels of investor activism and engagement, and we're seeing signs that management teams are taking up the challenge of improving profitability with record buybacks and record levels of dividend payout ratios. That said, the progress has been patchy at times and coming into this year, 50% of equity market constituents were still trading below book value. So what's changed this year is in this backdrop of improving corporate governance we've had new calls from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for companies trading below book value to explore ways to meet their cost of capital and lift valuations. We think that additional support that will come through as companies look to engage with investors and unlock value will help to boost Japan's sustainable return on equity to 11 to 12%, that compares with Japan's 15 year average of just 4% before the Abenomics program took hold. And it would bring it up more consistent with global averages. Chetan Ahya: Dan, one of the big themes Morgan Stanley research is exploring deeply this year is the transition from a globalized or multipolar world. How does this emergence of multipolar world impact Japan and its equity markets in particular? Daniel Blake: Thanks, Chetan. And as we're thinking about a multipolar world transition, we think there are two scenarios for global supply chains and interdependencies. One is a de-risking process, which is our base case, where supply chains are strengthened, diversified, and we see ongoing policy support for investment into emerging industries. The second scenario, which we hope to avoid, is one of decoupling. But if we focus on the de-risking scenario, we think Japanese companies will benefit from that trend for two reasons. One, we have a high allocation in the Japanese market of companies skewed towards industrial automation, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, precision instruments, specialty chemicals, all of the inputs for supply chain diversification that are crucially in demand in this de-risking process. And the second reason is investor portfolios are also being diversified, and Japan's deep capital markets have been in a good position to absorb this shift. Chetan Ahya: So taking it together, where does this leave your view on Japan equities and what are the risks to your call? Daniel Blake: So overall, we see Japanese equities as our most preferred market globally with another 7% upside to our base case for the TOPIX index. As a result of the three drivers we'll discuss today, we're above consensus on earnings forecasts, seeing 10% growth in 2023 and 2024. Investors are still underweight on Japanese equities and we expect ongoing inflows over the coming quarters. The most acute risk to the call is if we end up in a global recession or if in Japan, core inflation overshoots 2% sustainably, forcing a tightening cycle in Japanese yen appreciation. We think the underlying environment will manage to mitigate these risks more than they have in the past, but that remains a cyclical risk for the Japanese equity outlook. Chetan Ahya: Dan, thank you for taking the time to talk. Daniel Blake: Great speaking with Chetan. Chetan Ahya: And thanks for listening to our special three part series on Japan. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.
As Japan anticipates shifts in structural policy and GDP growth, these are the industries within the market that are poised to benefit. Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya, Chief Japan Economist Takeshi Yamaguchi, and Japan Senior Advisor Robert Feldman discuss.----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Takeshi Yamaguchi: I'm Takeshi Yamaguchi, Chief Japan Economist. Robert Feldman: And I'm Robert Feldman, Japan Senior Advisor. Chetan Ahya: Yesterday I discussed broad economic contours of Morgan Stanley's constructive view on Japan. Today, in the second installment of our special three part episode on Japan, we will dig deeper into the implications of the shift in Japan's nominal GDP path, the outlook for BOJ policy, as well as the outlook for structural reforms. It's Thursday, July 20th at 9 a.m. in Hong Kong. Robert Feldman: And 10 a.m. in Tokyo. Chetan Ahya: Yamaguchi-San, let's start here. The change in inflation dynamics that I covered on yesterday's episode could mean a momentous shift in Japan's nominal GDP path. Maybe you could start here with you walking us through some of the key implications of this shift. Takeshi Yamaguchi: Yes, Japan's nominal GDP has been in a flat range for many years, since 1990's after the collapse of the asset bubble. But now it's finally getting out of the range, and we expect this trend of positive nominal GDP growth to continue over the medium term. I think there are mainly three implications from economists' viewpoints. First, we expect compensation of employees, that's the amount taken by workers, and corporate earnings to grow at the same time. Before it was like a zero sum game with almost no nominal GDP growth, but now we expect a bigger economic pie which should benefit both workers and companies. Japan's wage trend is already improving after strong spring wage negotiations this year. Second, we think that the revival of positive nominal GDP growth will improve Japan's fiscal sustainability. We are already seeing a big increase in tax revenue with strong nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile, we expect the average interest costs or interest burden to increase only gradually due to monetary policy and also because average maturity of Japanese government bonds exceeds nine years. And finally, we think the outlook of higher nominal GDP growth strength should have some positive impact on asset prices, including equity prices. This is not the only reason behind the recent equity market moves, but the likely shift in the nominal GDP growth trend is playing some role here in our view. Chetan Ahya: Another question I want to ask is around the Bank of Japan's yield curve control program. You're expecting the BOJ to adjust its policy around yield curve control program at the upcoming policy in end July, which would be the second shift in monetary policy stance last December. Do you see further shifts in monetary policy and would it disrupt the virtuous cycle we are forecasting? Takeshi Yamaguchi: At that July monetary policy meeting we don't expect the BOJ to get rid of YCC, the yield curve control framework, but we expect the BOJ to change the conduct of YCC by allowing more fluctuations of ten year JGB yields, potentially to plus/minus 1%, around 0%. And that said, we think the BOJ governor Ueda directly emphasized that the 2% inflation target is still not achieved in a sustainable manner. So we expect the BOJ to maintain the current short term policy rate of -0.1% after the YCC adjustment. In the third quarter next year we expect the BOJ to exit negative interest rate policy after observing another round of solid spring wage negotiations. But even so, Japan's real interest rates would remain extremely low for some time. So we think the virtuous cycle we've been highlighting will likely remain intact. Chetan Ahya: Thank you, Yamaguchi-San. Robbie, let me turn it over to you. Japan has been feeling increasing pressure from demographics and other factors at home and geopolitics abroad. And so in response it's developing a new grand strategy and undergoing a number of structural reforms. You believe these reforms could lead to higher growth, walk us through why you feel so positive. Robert Feldman: Thanks, Chetan. Structural reforms are being triggered by both market forces and policy. The market forces are technology change, labor shortage, geopolitical pressures, higher interest rates, pricing power from the end of deflation and supply chain derisking. The policy forces are corporate governance changes, immigration law changes, startup policies, monetary policy and climate and sustainability policy. There are lots of market forces and lots of policy forces behind these changes. Chetan Ahya: In what industries do you expect to see the biggest changes? Robert Feldman: There are five industries where I think there will be major changes. And other industries, of course, will have them as well, but these five industries could even be subject to disruption. These are energy, agriculture, AI and I.T., health care and education. Let me say a couple words about each. In energy Japan has been a little bit behind some other countries in introducing renewables, but it's catching up. A particularly promising is offshore wind, and especially offshore floating wind. There still has to be some cost reductions, but there's a lot of interest and Japan has huge resources in this area. In agriculture Japan is 60% dependent on foreign countries for total calorie intake. Moreover, about 10% of the agricultural land in the country is lying unused. That's because of land law issues, etc. and vested interests, but there's huge opportunity there. AI and IT, this is where probably progress has been the fastest because of the labor shortage. Japan views AI and IT as a savior because this labor shortage is just so intense. Health care, Japan is an old country and it's getting older, health care costs are going up and so it's imperative that living standards be maintained in the health care area through lower costs and better effectiveness. Japan has a good healthcare system, but it's under a lot of monetary pressure and that's why the technology changes are so important. And finally, education. If technology is going to spread, we need workers who are educated in the new technology. And that's where reskilling and recurrent education, lifelong education will become so, so important. This will be primarily a private sector initiative because government is focused on standard, primary, secondary education. So there's a lot of opportunity in the education business. There are 72 listed companies in education in Japan. Chetan Ahya: And how much progress has been made so far on these structural reforms? And what does the timeline look from here? Robert Feldman: Progress has been fastest in AI and IT, because the labor shortage is so intense. AI is viewed as a savior here in Japan rather than with the trepidation in some other countries, due to this labor shortage. We've also seen good progress in energy in a number of fields hydrogen, solar, carbon capture, wind and ammonia. Health care has seen much progress within hospitals where IT platforms are quite advanced at administrative functions. Agriculture has been slower, but there are amazing advances in vertical farming. On the timeline these changes are happening now and likely to see significant momentum in the next 2 to 3 years. There is no time to waste and I'm expecting very rapid progress, particularly in AI/IT, energy and health care. Chetan Ahya: Yamaguchi-San, Robbie, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Takeshi Yamaguchi: Great speaking with you, Chetan. Robert Feldman: Thanks for having us. Chetan Ahya: And thanks for listening. Tomorrow, I will return for part three of the special segments on Japan. My guest will be Daniel Blake, our Asia equity strategist. We will discuss the market implications of our constructive Japan macro outlook and what investors should pay attention to. If you Enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
HOUR 1Tom S talks about the firing of Anheuser-Bush marketing executives Daniel Blake & Alissa Heinerscheid. Tom also talks about the "We're Coming For Your Children" controversy and the ACLU's plans to help the homeless file appeals to the abatement orders benign issued by the Municipality of Anchorage. Linn McCabe called in to talk about the Mat-Su Republicans Women's Club, how the club helps Republican causes, and their upcoming meeting & events. Find more information at https://www.matsurepublicanwomensclub.orgHOUR 2Mia Costello, the new Anchorage Mayor's Office State Legislative Affairs Director, joins Tom to overview her new role with the MOAU.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy visited Alaska to discuss teen depression problemsTom & Tom talk about local politics A warning from state environmental officials is going out regarding a pollution problem in University Lake in Anchorage / (ANS) https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2023/06/28/environmental-authorities-caution-residents-oil-spill-university-lake-park/Tom praises Chadux for its 30th anniversary / https://alaskaosro.org
We're talking about the first ever stage adaptation of Ken Loach's and Paul Laverty's multi-award winning 2016 film I, Daniel Blake. The production, which is touring the UK, opened at Northern Stage Newcastle to rave critical reviews and passionate audience reactions. Dave Johns, who adapted it for the stage, played Daniel in the original film, winning Best Actor at the British Independent Awards and Best Newcomer at the Empire Awards for his performance. Davey Nellist, who plays Daniel in this new stage version, is best known for his roles as Mike Stamford in Sherlock with Benedict Cumberbatch and more recently in the TV series Stonehouse with Matthew McFadden. Dave and Davey tell us how the play is deliberately being hailed as non-fiction and a very real story about poverty and homelessness in Newcastle today. The city had one foodbank in 2016 but now has seven. Dave also tells us how he landed the part in the movie, having been a comedian and formerly a bricklayer. I, Daniel Blake tours till mid-November to Birmingham, Manchester, Exeter, Liverpool, Durham, Leeds, Oxford, Edinburgh, Stratford, Northampton, Coventry and Guildford, before returning to Northern Stage in September. For dates and full details see here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram
The Liverpool Biennial, the UK's largest contemporary visual arts festival, begins this weekend. Arts journalist Laura Robertson reviews, and the curator of the biennial, Khanyisile Mbongwa, discuss coming up with this year's theme – uMoya: The Sacred Return of Lost things – which reflects on Liverpool's history as a slave port but also provides a sense of hope and joy. Nobel Prize-winning Italian playwright Dario Fo was famous for plays that careered between farce and current affairs. He wrote his most successful plays during Italy's years of economic crisis in the 1970s, and there's been an upsurge in productions of them in the UK this year. Playwrights Deborah McAndrew and Tom Basden discuss their respective adaptations of They Don't Pay? We Won't Pay! and Accidental Death of an Anarchist. For Dave Johns, the lead role in Ken Loach's multi-award winning film, I, Daniel Blake, marked his debut as a film actor. His performance as a man trapped and impoverished in the Catch-22 of the benefits system was admired by many. Now Dave has adapted the film for the stage. It opened at Northern Stage in Newcastle and begins a nationwide tour next week. He talks to Nick Ahad retelling the story of the film in a new way. Presenter: Nick Ahad Presenter: Ekene Akalawu
The Old Oak will be Ken Loach's last feature film and Sharuna Sagar was granted exclusive access behind the scenes of this landmark movie. She joins the 86 year old director on his swansong as he brings together his loyal team for one last time. As with his previous two films, I, Daniel Blake and Sorry We Missed You, Ken returns to the North East of England, to tell the story of Syrian refugees who have been housed in an ex-mining village. With him are his long-standing partners, producer Rebecca O'Brien and writer Paul Laverty, and they reveal the secrets of Loach's success.
This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, May 17th, 2023. Concordis Education Partners: Classical Christian education has reminded us to aim education at truth, but the trivium has been used as a formula rather than a way of training students in discernment. To teach well, you must coach. Concordis Foundation is offering their third annual BOOT CAMP – a faculty summit – July 11-13th in Moscow, Idaho. This is a three-day intensive teaching training where you learn to coach students, using the trivium, so that you can meet students at all learning levels. Learn more at concordispartners.com https://www.dailywire.com/news/tsa-rolls-out-facial-recognition-technology-test-at-several-major-airports TSA Rolls Out Facial Recognition Technology Test At Several Major Airports The Transportation Security Administration is testing the use of facial recognition technology at airports across the nation, a move that the federal agency claims will help employees more easily identify travelers. Passengers may soon find themselves in a security screening line where they are asked to place their identification into a slot and look into a camera, after which a small screen will take their picture and flash the words “photo complete,” permitting the traveler to continue through the security process without handing their identification to an employee. The technology is currently in use at 16 airports throughout the country, such as those in Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Detroit, Los Angeles, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City, according to a report from the Associated Press. Passengers are allowed to opt out of the pilot program conducted by the TSA, which is a branch of the Department of Homeland Security. TSA employees in the security lines with the technology, which examines whether the identification is real and whether the identification belongs to the traveler, will nevertheless be present to ensure that the system reaches correct conclusions. The test of the technology comes despite a February letter from five members of the Senate, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), who expressed concern over reports that the system could be implemented across the United States as soon as this year if deemed successful. The lawmakers contended that facial recognition technology “represents a risk to civil liberties and privacy rights.” Federal entities already leverage facial recognition technology in various capacities despite the privacy and security concerns: a report published last year by the Government Accountability Office found that 18 out of 24 agencies reported using facial recognition systems in fiscal year 2020, largely for computer access and law enforcement activities, while 14 out of 42 agencies that employ law enforcement officers reported using the technology in criminal investigations. Americans broadly support the “widespread use of facial recognition technology” by police officers who utilize the systems for law enforcement purposes, according to a survey from Pew Research Center, in which 27% of respondents said the policy was a “bad idea” and 46% said the policy was a “good idea.” Other state and local governments have indeed banned biometric recognition technology. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed suit last year against Google and Meta for breaches of state laws which prohibit technology firms from using data such as iris scans, fingerprints, voiceprints, or records of hand and face geometry for commercial purposes without permission. https://www.theepochtimes.com/anheuser-busch-announces-changes-company-amid-bud-light-boycott_5266255.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport Anheuser-Busch Makes Changes to Company Amid Bud Light Boycott Anheuser-Busch revealed that it is making attempts to change its marketing structure in the midst of a backlash after Bud Light produced a can featuring a transgender activist’s face for a social media promotion. While the firm did not make mention of the controversy and boycott, a spokesperson for the brewing giant told Fox2Now in St. Louis that it held a meeting in the city and that “we have communicated some next steps with our internal teams and wholesaler partners.” “First, we made it clear that the safety and welfare of our employees and our partners is our top priority,” the company spokesperson said before adding that a new executive was tapped to head a marketing division. “Todd Allen was appointed Vice President of Bud Light added the spokesperson. “Third, we made some adjustments to streamline the structure of our marketing function to reduce layers so that our most senior marketers are more closely connected to every aspect of our brands activities. These steps will help us maintain focus on the things we do best: brewing great beer for all consumers, while always making a positive impact in our communities and on our country.” For the past month and a half, Bud Light’s sales have taken a nosedive after transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney posted a video with the namesake can on social media, writing “#budlightpartner” in the caption. That led many to believe the light beer was officially partnering with Mulvaney and would launch a campaign with the activist, who is a biological male. Anheuser-Busch executive Brendan Whitworth said in an April 14 news release that the beverage firm had had no intention of sparking division or wading into a political debate. However, Whitworth made no mention of Mulvaney or the backlash. Weeks later, Anheuser-Busch InBev CEO Michel Doukeris told investors in a call that there was no partnership with Mulvaney and that only “one can” was produced with Mulvaney’s face. In a subsequent Financial Times interview, Doukeris claimed that the slumping Bud Light sales were sparked by social media-driven “misinformation.” Continuing, the CEO said that people believed it was a campaign. “It was not: it was one post. It was not an advertisement,” he remarked, contradicting the #budlightpartner hashtag that Mulvaney had written. Sales of the product dropped 26 percent year-over-year in the week ending April 22, according to Bump Williams Consulting based on Nielsen IQ data. Meanwhile, sales of rival beers Coors Light and Miller Light both saw their sales rise by about 10 percent each, according to the data. In the midst of the backlash, two Bud Light executives—Alissa Heinerscheid and Daniel Blake—took a leave of absence, the company said. “Given the circumstances, Alissa has decided to take a leave of absence which we support. Daniel has also decided to take a leave of absence,” the company said last month. https://thepostmillennial.com/seattle-to-pay-out-2-3-million-to-whistleblowers-who-revealed-mayor-engaged-in-chaz-cover-up-by-deleting-texts?utm_campaign=64487 Seattle to pay out $2.3 MILLION to whistleblowers who revealed mayor engaged in CHAZ cover-up by deleting texts The city of Seattle will be forced to pay $2.3 million to settle a lawsuit brought by city employees who were mistreated after they helped reveal that thousands of then-Mayor Jenny Durkan’s text messages had been deleted during the violent riots that rocked the city and the deadly Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone in the summer of 2020. A whistleblower complaint by the employees helped to reveal that the texts of Durkan, former Police Chief Carmen Best, Fire Chief Harold Scoggins, and other top officials from the summer of 2020 were intentionally deleted. Though the King County Superior Court case was resolved last month, the terms of Seattle’s settlement with Stacy Irwin and Kimberly Ferreiro weren’t finalized until this week and the details were released to The Seattle Times through a public disclosure request on Friday. The $2.3 million payout is in addition to over $770,000, as of April, spent by the city on attorneys to defend the case, the outlet reported. According to the suit, Irwin and Ferreiro claimed that they resigned as public-records officers in Durkan’s office due to hostile conditions and retaliation. The pair claimed they were “subjected to scorn, ridicule, abuse, and hostility … and the demand to perform illegal acts.” The pair sounded the alarm in 2021 when they complained to the Seattle Ethics and Elections Commission that the mayor’s office was mishandling records requests. An investigation by the SEEC determined that the mayor’s legal counsel, Michelle Chen, had violated the state Public Records Act by using narrow interpretations of certain requests to exclude Durkan’s missing texts and diverged from best practices by not informing requesters the texts were missing. Under state law, texts and other communications about public businesses by local elected officials must be kept for at least two years and anyone who willfully destroys a public record that’s supposed to be preserved is guilty of a felony, punishable by up to five years in prison. The settlement agreement includes $25,000 in lost wages each to Irwin and Ferreiro, while the remainder of the $2.3 million is for general damages and attorneys’ fees. As part of the settlement, the plaintiffs are required to drop the case, destroy city documents in their possession, and never pursue jobs in the city again. Additionally, both parties are barred from talking publicly about the settlement amount. Irwin told the Times that records disappeared and yet, “There’s been no accountability. These officials basically got away with it and the taxpayers are paying.” Ferreiro said, “It’s still a loss for the citizens of Seattle,” because some questions about the actions of city officials “will never be answered.” In August 2022, then-King County Prosecutor Dan Satterberg requested that Sheriff Patti Cole-Tindall investigate the city officials’ deleted texts, but Cole-Tindall’s office has yet to announce the results. Durkan’s office previously claimed that an “unknown technology issue” caused the texts to go missing but a city-commissioned forensic report found that Durkan’s phone was changed in July 2020 to delete texts automatically after 30 days as well as texts stored in the cloud. Durkan also previously claimed that she dropped her phone in a tide pool on the July 4 weekend of that year. A subsequent forensic report commissioned by business owners and residents suing the city over the deadly autonomous zone revealed that Durkan texts were manually deleted. In February, the city settled that lawsuit for $3.65 million, including $600,000 in penalties for the deleted texts. The settlement came swiftly after a judge sanctioned the city for destroying evidence and noted that Durkan’s excuses “strained credibility.” Over 27,000 texts were deleted from Best’s phone and the most recent forensic reports show that phones used by Scoggins and others were reset in October 2020. In 2022, Seattle paid nearly $200,000 and pledged to improve its public records processes to settle a lawsuit brought by The Seattle Times that alleged the city had mishandled requests from reporters who asked for the messages between city officials. In February, the owner of a Korean restaurant filed a federal lawsuit against the city for the loss of business and expenses incurred during the notorious autonomous zone. Litigation against the city as a result of the zone has already cost Seattle over $11 million. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/bipartisan-bill-pentagon-mexican-drug-cartels-pushing-fentanyl Bipartisan bill would empower Pentagon to take down Mexican drug cartels pushing fentanyl Democrats and Republicans from the House and Senate will debut legislation that would declare fentanyl a national security threat and allow the Pentagon to take new action targeting Mexican drug cartels. Senate Armed Services Committee members Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Tim Kaine (D-VA) shared exclusively with the Washington Examiner Tuesday morning their forthcoming bipartisan, bicameral bill to use their oversight authority of the Department of Defense to force the federal government to take stronger actions against Mexican transnational criminal organizations. "The amount of lives lost in Iowa and across the country due to this deadly drug has far surpassed the federal government’s response, and we must scale immediately to combat this national security threat," Ernst said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. "This bipartisan work will engage Mexico as an active partner to counter fentanyl trafficking and put the Pentagon’s tools to use to save American lives.” The Disrupt Fentanyl Trafficking Act would require the Pentagon to develop a fentanyl-specific counterdrug strategy, including how to work directly with the Mexican military and to increase security operations with Mexico. Fentanyl is largely moved into the U.S. from Mexico, and the ingredients to make the powerful drug originate in China and are then shipped to producers in Mexico. Ernst and Kaine maintained that enlisting the Mexican government as an equal partner in the war on fentanyl is critical, given the southern neighbor has failed to get a hold of the problem over the past five years. Between 2017 and 2021, fentanyl seizures at the U.S. border increased by 950% — most of which occurred under Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Fentanyl has become the leading cause of death in U.S. adults between 18 and 45. President Joe Biden, in his State of the Union address earlier this year, vowed to do more to tackle the epidemic. Now before we end today, it’s time for a new segment I like to call the rundown: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/15/microsoft-activision-deal-eu-approves-takeover-of-call-of-duty-maker.html European Union regulators on Monday approved Microsoft’s proposed $69 billion acquisition of gaming firm Activision Blizzard, subject to remedies offered by the U.S. tech giant. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said that Microsoft offered remedies in the nascent area of cloud gaming that have staved off antitrust concerns. These remedies centered on allowing users to stream Activision games they purchase on any cloud streaming platform. Europe’s green light is a huge win for Microsoft, after the U.K.’s top competition authority last month blocked the deal. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/15/china-sentences-78-year-old-us-citizen-life-prison-spying-charges.html China sentenced a 78-year-old United States citizen to life in prison Monday on spying charges, in a case that could exacerbate the deterioration in ties between Beijing and Washington over recent years. Details of the charges against John Shing-Wan Leung, who also holds permanent residency in Hong Kong, have not been publicly released. Such investigations and trials are held behind closed doors and little information is generally released other than vague accusations of infiltration, gathering secrets and threatening state security. https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2023/05/15/81-year-old-martha-stewart-poses-for-sports-illustrated-swimsuit/ Martha Stewart, who is 81-years-old, posed for the cover of Sports Illustrated Swimsuit, making her the oldest cover model in SI swimsuit issue history. That’s it… that’s all there is with that story. https://www.foxnews.com/sports/horse-euthanized-churchill-downs-broken-leg-becomes-8th-thoroughbred-die-track-last-2-weeks Another horse is dead after running at Churchill Downs, the site of the annual Kentucky Derby. Rio Moon broke his leg on Sunday near the finish line and had to be euthanized. The horse became the eighth to die in the last two weeks at the racetrack - seven died of multiple causes in the days, and hours, leading up to the May 6 Derby. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ja-morant-could-face-significant-suspension-to-start-2023-24-nba-season-over-latest-controversy-per-report/ In NBA news… The Memphis Grizzlies could start next season without their best player for a period of time. After an Instagram Live video circulated online that showed Grizzlies superstar Ja Morant holding what appeared to be a gun in a car, the All-Star guard was suspended by Memphis from all team activities. But that's not the only suspension Morant could be facing. The franchise centerpiece could be facing a "significant suspension" from the league, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. The video in question was from an Instagram Live on Saturday, and it shows Morant in a car with friends and for a brief second as the camera pans to him it appears that he is holding a gun. After the video made the rounds on social media, the Grizzlies suspended their star guard. The league then announced it was launching an investigation into the situation.
This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, May 17th, 2023. Concordis Education Partners: Classical Christian education has reminded us to aim education at truth, but the trivium has been used as a formula rather than a way of training students in discernment. To teach well, you must coach. Concordis Foundation is offering their third annual BOOT CAMP – a faculty summit – July 11-13th in Moscow, Idaho. This is a three-day intensive teaching training where you learn to coach students, using the trivium, so that you can meet students at all learning levels. Learn more at concordispartners.com https://www.dailywire.com/news/tsa-rolls-out-facial-recognition-technology-test-at-several-major-airports TSA Rolls Out Facial Recognition Technology Test At Several Major Airports The Transportation Security Administration is testing the use of facial recognition technology at airports across the nation, a move that the federal agency claims will help employees more easily identify travelers. Passengers may soon find themselves in a security screening line where they are asked to place their identification into a slot and look into a camera, after which a small screen will take their picture and flash the words “photo complete,” permitting the traveler to continue through the security process without handing their identification to an employee. The technology is currently in use at 16 airports throughout the country, such as those in Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Detroit, Los Angeles, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City, according to a report from the Associated Press. Passengers are allowed to opt out of the pilot program conducted by the TSA, which is a branch of the Department of Homeland Security. TSA employees in the security lines with the technology, which examines whether the identification is real and whether the identification belongs to the traveler, will nevertheless be present to ensure that the system reaches correct conclusions. The test of the technology comes despite a February letter from five members of the Senate, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), who expressed concern over reports that the system could be implemented across the United States as soon as this year if deemed successful. The lawmakers contended that facial recognition technology “represents a risk to civil liberties and privacy rights.” Federal entities already leverage facial recognition technology in various capacities despite the privacy and security concerns: a report published last year by the Government Accountability Office found that 18 out of 24 agencies reported using facial recognition systems in fiscal year 2020, largely for computer access and law enforcement activities, while 14 out of 42 agencies that employ law enforcement officers reported using the technology in criminal investigations. Americans broadly support the “widespread use of facial recognition technology” by police officers who utilize the systems for law enforcement purposes, according to a survey from Pew Research Center, in which 27% of respondents said the policy was a “bad idea” and 46% said the policy was a “good idea.” Other state and local governments have indeed banned biometric recognition technology. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed suit last year against Google and Meta for breaches of state laws which prohibit technology firms from using data such as iris scans, fingerprints, voiceprints, or records of hand and face geometry for commercial purposes without permission. https://www.theepochtimes.com/anheuser-busch-announces-changes-company-amid-bud-light-boycott_5266255.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport Anheuser-Busch Makes Changes to Company Amid Bud Light Boycott Anheuser-Busch revealed that it is making attempts to change its marketing structure in the midst of a backlash after Bud Light produced a can featuring a transgender activist’s face for a social media promotion. While the firm did not make mention of the controversy and boycott, a spokesperson for the brewing giant told Fox2Now in St. Louis that it held a meeting in the city and that “we have communicated some next steps with our internal teams and wholesaler partners.” “First, we made it clear that the safety and welfare of our employees and our partners is our top priority,” the company spokesperson said before adding that a new executive was tapped to head a marketing division. “Todd Allen was appointed Vice President of Bud Light added the spokesperson. “Third, we made some adjustments to streamline the structure of our marketing function to reduce layers so that our most senior marketers are more closely connected to every aspect of our brands activities. These steps will help us maintain focus on the things we do best: brewing great beer for all consumers, while always making a positive impact in our communities and on our country.” For the past month and a half, Bud Light’s sales have taken a nosedive after transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney posted a video with the namesake can on social media, writing “#budlightpartner” in the caption. That led many to believe the light beer was officially partnering with Mulvaney and would launch a campaign with the activist, who is a biological male. Anheuser-Busch executive Brendan Whitworth said in an April 14 news release that the beverage firm had had no intention of sparking division or wading into a political debate. However, Whitworth made no mention of Mulvaney or the backlash. Weeks later, Anheuser-Busch InBev CEO Michel Doukeris told investors in a call that there was no partnership with Mulvaney and that only “one can” was produced with Mulvaney’s face. In a subsequent Financial Times interview, Doukeris claimed that the slumping Bud Light sales were sparked by social media-driven “misinformation.” Continuing, the CEO said that people believed it was a campaign. “It was not: it was one post. It was not an advertisement,” he remarked, contradicting the #budlightpartner hashtag that Mulvaney had written. Sales of the product dropped 26 percent year-over-year in the week ending April 22, according to Bump Williams Consulting based on Nielsen IQ data. Meanwhile, sales of rival beers Coors Light and Miller Light both saw their sales rise by about 10 percent each, according to the data. In the midst of the backlash, two Bud Light executives—Alissa Heinerscheid and Daniel Blake—took a leave of absence, the company said. “Given the circumstances, Alissa has decided to take a leave of absence which we support. Daniel has also decided to take a leave of absence,” the company said last month. https://thepostmillennial.com/seattle-to-pay-out-2-3-million-to-whistleblowers-who-revealed-mayor-engaged-in-chaz-cover-up-by-deleting-texts?utm_campaign=64487 Seattle to pay out $2.3 MILLION to whistleblowers who revealed mayor engaged in CHAZ cover-up by deleting texts The city of Seattle will be forced to pay $2.3 million to settle a lawsuit brought by city employees who were mistreated after they helped reveal that thousands of then-Mayor Jenny Durkan’s text messages had been deleted during the violent riots that rocked the city and the deadly Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone in the summer of 2020. A whistleblower complaint by the employees helped to reveal that the texts of Durkan, former Police Chief Carmen Best, Fire Chief Harold Scoggins, and other top officials from the summer of 2020 were intentionally deleted. Though the King County Superior Court case was resolved last month, the terms of Seattle’s settlement with Stacy Irwin and Kimberly Ferreiro weren’t finalized until this week and the details were released to The Seattle Times through a public disclosure request on Friday. The $2.3 million payout is in addition to over $770,000, as of April, spent by the city on attorneys to defend the case, the outlet reported. According to the suit, Irwin and Ferreiro claimed that they resigned as public-records officers in Durkan’s office due to hostile conditions and retaliation. The pair claimed they were “subjected to scorn, ridicule, abuse, and hostility … and the demand to perform illegal acts.” The pair sounded the alarm in 2021 when they complained to the Seattle Ethics and Elections Commission that the mayor’s office was mishandling records requests. An investigation by the SEEC determined that the mayor’s legal counsel, Michelle Chen, had violated the state Public Records Act by using narrow interpretations of certain requests to exclude Durkan’s missing texts and diverged from best practices by not informing requesters the texts were missing. Under state law, texts and other communications about public businesses by local elected officials must be kept for at least two years and anyone who willfully destroys a public record that’s supposed to be preserved is guilty of a felony, punishable by up to five years in prison. The settlement agreement includes $25,000 in lost wages each to Irwin and Ferreiro, while the remainder of the $2.3 million is for general damages and attorneys’ fees. As part of the settlement, the plaintiffs are required to drop the case, destroy city documents in their possession, and never pursue jobs in the city again. Additionally, both parties are barred from talking publicly about the settlement amount. Irwin told the Times that records disappeared and yet, “There’s been no accountability. These officials basically got away with it and the taxpayers are paying.” Ferreiro said, “It’s still a loss for the citizens of Seattle,” because some questions about the actions of city officials “will never be answered.” In August 2022, then-King County Prosecutor Dan Satterberg requested that Sheriff Patti Cole-Tindall investigate the city officials’ deleted texts, but Cole-Tindall’s office has yet to announce the results. Durkan’s office previously claimed that an “unknown technology issue” caused the texts to go missing but a city-commissioned forensic report found that Durkan’s phone was changed in July 2020 to delete texts automatically after 30 days as well as texts stored in the cloud. Durkan also previously claimed that she dropped her phone in a tide pool on the July 4 weekend of that year. A subsequent forensic report commissioned by business owners and residents suing the city over the deadly autonomous zone revealed that Durkan texts were manually deleted. In February, the city settled that lawsuit for $3.65 million, including $600,000 in penalties for the deleted texts. The settlement came swiftly after a judge sanctioned the city for destroying evidence and noted that Durkan’s excuses “strained credibility.” Over 27,000 texts were deleted from Best’s phone and the most recent forensic reports show that phones used by Scoggins and others were reset in October 2020. In 2022, Seattle paid nearly $200,000 and pledged to improve its public records processes to settle a lawsuit brought by The Seattle Times that alleged the city had mishandled requests from reporters who asked for the messages between city officials. In February, the owner of a Korean restaurant filed a federal lawsuit against the city for the loss of business and expenses incurred during the notorious autonomous zone. Litigation against the city as a result of the zone has already cost Seattle over $11 million. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/bipartisan-bill-pentagon-mexican-drug-cartels-pushing-fentanyl Bipartisan bill would empower Pentagon to take down Mexican drug cartels pushing fentanyl Democrats and Republicans from the House and Senate will debut legislation that would declare fentanyl a national security threat and allow the Pentagon to take new action targeting Mexican drug cartels. Senate Armed Services Committee members Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Tim Kaine (D-VA) shared exclusively with the Washington Examiner Tuesday morning their forthcoming bipartisan, bicameral bill to use their oversight authority of the Department of Defense to force the federal government to take stronger actions against Mexican transnational criminal organizations. "The amount of lives lost in Iowa and across the country due to this deadly drug has far surpassed the federal government’s response, and we must scale immediately to combat this national security threat," Ernst said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. "This bipartisan work will engage Mexico as an active partner to counter fentanyl trafficking and put the Pentagon’s tools to use to save American lives.” The Disrupt Fentanyl Trafficking Act would require the Pentagon to develop a fentanyl-specific counterdrug strategy, including how to work directly with the Mexican military and to increase security operations with Mexico. Fentanyl is largely moved into the U.S. from Mexico, and the ingredients to make the powerful drug originate in China and are then shipped to producers in Mexico. Ernst and Kaine maintained that enlisting the Mexican government as an equal partner in the war on fentanyl is critical, given the southern neighbor has failed to get a hold of the problem over the past five years. Between 2017 and 2021, fentanyl seizures at the U.S. border increased by 950% — most of which occurred under Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Fentanyl has become the leading cause of death in U.S. adults between 18 and 45. President Joe Biden, in his State of the Union address earlier this year, vowed to do more to tackle the epidemic. Now before we end today, it’s time for a new segment I like to call the rundown: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/15/microsoft-activision-deal-eu-approves-takeover-of-call-of-duty-maker.html European Union regulators on Monday approved Microsoft’s proposed $69 billion acquisition of gaming firm Activision Blizzard, subject to remedies offered by the U.S. tech giant. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said that Microsoft offered remedies in the nascent area of cloud gaming that have staved off antitrust concerns. These remedies centered on allowing users to stream Activision games they purchase on any cloud streaming platform. Europe’s green light is a huge win for Microsoft, after the U.K.’s top competition authority last month blocked the deal. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/15/china-sentences-78-year-old-us-citizen-life-prison-spying-charges.html China sentenced a 78-year-old United States citizen to life in prison Monday on spying charges, in a case that could exacerbate the deterioration in ties between Beijing and Washington over recent years. Details of the charges against John Shing-Wan Leung, who also holds permanent residency in Hong Kong, have not been publicly released. Such investigations and trials are held behind closed doors and little information is generally released other than vague accusations of infiltration, gathering secrets and threatening state security. https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2023/05/15/81-year-old-martha-stewart-poses-for-sports-illustrated-swimsuit/ Martha Stewart, who is 81-years-old, posed for the cover of Sports Illustrated Swimsuit, making her the oldest cover model in SI swimsuit issue history. That’s it… that’s all there is with that story. https://www.foxnews.com/sports/horse-euthanized-churchill-downs-broken-leg-becomes-8th-thoroughbred-die-track-last-2-weeks Another horse is dead after running at Churchill Downs, the site of the annual Kentucky Derby. Rio Moon broke his leg on Sunday near the finish line and had to be euthanized. The horse became the eighth to die in the last two weeks at the racetrack - seven died of multiple causes in the days, and hours, leading up to the May 6 Derby. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ja-morant-could-face-significant-suspension-to-start-2023-24-nba-season-over-latest-controversy-per-report/ In NBA news… The Memphis Grizzlies could start next season without their best player for a period of time. After an Instagram Live video circulated online that showed Grizzlies superstar Ja Morant holding what appeared to be a gun in a car, the All-Star guard was suspended by Memphis from all team activities. But that's not the only suspension Morant could be facing. The franchise centerpiece could be facing a "significant suspension" from the league, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. The video in question was from an Instagram Live on Saturday, and it shows Morant in a car with friends and for a brief second as the camera pans to him it appears that he is holding a gun. After the video made the rounds on social media, the Grizzlies suspended their star guard. The league then announced it was launching an investigation into the situation.
In a major media shake-up, Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News. The biggest name in the news is now a free agent. Where will he end up? Is this at all related to the recent Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit? Many questions still remain around the situation. In a Heritage Foundation speech Friday, Carlson talked about facing his "Paul" moment. Is this that moment? It is truly a monumental day in the news media landscape. CNN announced it was parting ways with Don Lemon. The fiery anchor tweeted out a parting shot at his former employer, but CNN returned fire. Anheuser-Busch's marketing vice president for Bud Light, Alissa Heinerscheid, has taken a leave of absence and has been replaced by Todd Allen, the global marketing VP for Budweiser. Additionally, Daniel Blake, who is in charge of marketing for Anheuser-Busch's mainstream brands, was also placed on leave late last week. The fallout from the Dylan Mulvaney debacle continues as the company's stock has taken a major hit. "60 Minutes" released its interview with Ray Epps, and it raises more questions than it answers. Why hasn't he been arrested, and why is the Left defending him? A trans "woman" released a TikTok video, making some disturbing threats against "transphobes." Today's Sponsors: Barrel Buddy Cleaning guns is just one of those necessary hassles in life. Personally, I hate it. It's a dirty job, but we've got to do it. Barrel Buddy is a totally new concept and better way to take care of your firearms. So, get some today … I guarantee you'll love ‘em. Go to https://www.BarrelBuddy.com today! Patriot Mobile Patriot Mobile, America's ONLY Christian conservative wireless provider, offers dependable nationwide coverage on ALL THREE MAJOR networks, so you get the best possible service in your area without the woke propaganda pushed by leftists working hard to destroy this country. When you switch to Patriot Mobile you support free speech and religious freedom, the sanctity of life, Second Amendment, and our military, veterans and first responder heroes! Their 100% US-based customer service team makes switching easy! Just go to https://www.PATRIOTMOBILE.COM/CHAD or call them; 878-PATRIOT! Texas Superfood We have a new sponsor to the show, Texas Superfoods. We are all learned that it is important to do business with people we can trust and who share our values and the founder of Texas Superfoods is not only a Veteran, he is also a Texan and a homeopathic Doctor who has committed his life to help people who want to spit themselves out of the American Medical system and take their heath into their own hands. Give them a try at https://www.TexasSuperfoods.com. Refuge Ghost I want to tell you about the Ghost Sleeve from Refuge Privacy. As useful as it is, It's also a tracking device, even when it's off! It's made with Faraday fabric that blocks signals to and from the phone, and has sound-blocking panels on each side – your private conversations are yours, not anyone else's. Visit https://www.RefugePrivacy.com today. Use code “CHAD” to save 10% off your order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tucker Carlson has left Fox News, and people are left wondering why? Rumors started flying shortly after the bombshell statement that this must have been a decision attached to Fox's recent $788 million settlement with Dominion Voting Systems, but former Fox producer Kyle Becker of Becker News stated on Twitter earlier today that he received confirmation this was NOT in any way related to Dominion but to Tucker exposing the truth about January 6. In leftist media, Don Lemon has left CNN. Lemon announced on Twitter that he was shown the door this morning. Ray Epps, a Marine veteran whose actions on January 6 led to claims that he was an FBI infiltrator, spoke out on Sunday for the first time, telling "60 Minutes" the idea of him being an FBI informant was "a lie." The brains behind the Dylan Mulvaney-Bud Light collab are out of their jobs. Alissa Heinerscheid and her boss, Daniel Blake, are gone after the company took a huge hit because of the horrible paid partnership with the transgender activist. Today's Sponsors: Freedom Project Academy was built on Judeo-Christian values and classical curriculum. It's dedicated to mastery of subject matter and teaching kids HOW to think not WHAT to think. Save 10% on tuition when you enroll today at http://www.FreedomForSchool.com Relief factor isn't a drug, but it was developed by doctors to fight inflammation. Try it today. The 3-Week QuickStart is only $19.95. Go to http://www.relieffactor.com or call 1-800-4Relief to get your QuickStart today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Don Lemon says he's been fired from his post at CNN's "CNN This Morning," which he co-anchored with Kaitlan Collins and Poppy Harlow for about six months. Tucker Carlson and Fox News have agreed to part ways, the network said Monday. The news came less than an hour before CNN announced that it has split with longtime host Don Lemon. Daniel Blake, who oversees marketing for Anheuser-Busch's mainstream brands, has taken a leave of absence following the backlash from the Dylan Mulvaney Bud Light advertising campaign.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
HOUR 1Due to the ongoing violence in Sudan that has left hundreds of people dead, it is unsafe to conduct another coordinated evacuation for remaining U.S. citizens, John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, told "CBS Mornings" on Monday / (CBS News) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sudan-news-americans-not-safe-another-evacuation-attempt-khartoum-embassy-john-kirby/Based on the projections, India's population by mid-year will reach 1.4286 billion, compared to China's 1.4257 billion – 2.9 million fewer – according to the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) / (CNN) https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/asia/india-china-population-intl/index.htmlThe Pentagon released a video of a reported UFO flying at a high rate of speed in the vicinity of Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drones that "showed some really interesting things that everyone thought was truly anomalous." / (FOX News) https://www.foxnews.com/us/newly-released-ufo-video-sean-kirkpatrick-pentagon-all-domain-anomaly-resolution-office-aaro-truly-anomalousBud Light's VP of marketing, Alissa Heinerscheid, and her boss, Daniel Blake, were placed on leave following conservative backlash to a recent campaign with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney / (MB) https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2023/04/23/bud-light-makes-changes-to-its-marketing-team-after-calls-for-boycott?Los Angeles Mayor asks President Biden for $1.3 Billion to combat homelessness / (NPR)https://www.npr.org/2023/04/23/1171507534/los-angeles-mayor-karen-bass-homelessnessPresident Joe Biden's struggles in the polls are no shocking news. He has been drowning since day one of his presidency, and liberal news outlets are being forced to admit it (Townhall) https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2023/04/23/nbc-admits-new-poll-numbers-for-joe-biden-doesnt-look-good-n2622299Who could run for president as a Democrat? / (BBC) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63654388Clarence Thomas and ethics rules / (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2023/04/24/1171343472/justice-thomas-gifts-scandal-highlights-double-standard-for-ethics-in-governmentTucker Carlson leaving FOXNews / (FOXNews) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/media/tucker-carlson-fox-news.html?HOUR 2Joe from Midtown Anchorage discusses Minnesota police officer Kim Potter getting out of prison today after 16 months served because of mistakingly killing Daunte Wright. Mark from East Anchorage on the Tucker Carlson departure and APD and crimeTom & Tom on Tucker Carlson's departure A backcountry skier had to be rescued off a mountain in Girdwood after a human-triggered avalanche swept him approximately 1,000 feet / (ANS) https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2023/04/22/avalanche-center-warns-warming-temps-after-skier-rescued-off-mountain/The Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport continued to move up the global ladder in cargo shipments last year, jumping to third place and switching spots with Shanghai Pudong Airport in China, the airport announced earlier this month / (ADN) https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2023/04/23/anchorage-international-airport-jumps-to-third-in-world-for-air-cargo/CNN fires Don Lemmon / (FOXNews) https://www.foxnews.co
Today's Martha Kearney spoke to Christopher Eccleston following the closure of the Oldham Coliseum due to a loss of funding from Arts Council England. They are giving money to build a new theatre in Oldham instead. The closing night saw an emotional Christopher Eccleston and Maxine Peake perform excerpts from a new adaptation of Ken Loach's film I, Daniel Blake - which was due to have been on the Coliseum stage this summer. Eccleston talked about his frustration at the lack of funding, which he felt especially targets arts in the North West. The actor discussed growing up in a working class background and the ever-growing elitism of the arts: ‘you've got to be Oxbridge otherwise you can't act', he says. He says he became an actor not for money, but for his own self-expression and ‘pursuit of the heart', and that he couldn't do so without the support of his wonderful family.
Next month the leadership of the Bank of Japan will change hands, so what policy shifts might be in store and what does this imply for markets?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategy team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss Japanese equity markets and the changing of the guard at the Bank of Japan. It's Thursday, February 16th at 8 a.m. in Singapore. March the 10th will mark the end of an era for Japan, with Haruhiko Kuroda completing his final meeting at the helm of the Bank of Japan. Alongside the late Shinzo Abe, Kuroda-san has been instrumental in creating and implementing the famous Abenomics program over the last decade, and we think he's been successful in bringing Japan out of its long running deflationary stance. And just this week we've had the nomination of his replacement, Kazuo Ueda, a well-respected University of Tokyo professor and former Bank of Japan board member. He may not be a household name outside of the economics community, but his central bank and policy bloodlines run deep, having studied a Ph.D. at MIT alongside former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and under the tutelage of Stanley Fischer, former Bank of Israel governor and vice Fed chair. So as we see a generational handover at the BoJ, what do we expect next and what does it imply for equity markets? Firstly, Japan has made a lot of progress, but we don't think the mission has been fully accomplished on the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. Current inflation is being driven by cost pressures and while wage growth is picking up, we don't think wages will move up to the levels needed to see inflation at 2% being sustained. So we don't expect the BoJ under Ueda-san to embark on a tightening cycle the way we have seen for the Fed and the ECB. However, we can look for some change and in particular we think Ueda-san will look to resolve some of the market dysfunction associated with the policy of yield curve control. This is where the BoJ looks to cap bond yields at the ten year maturity, around a target of 0%. We expect he'll exit this policy of yield curve control by summer 2023, allowing the curve to steepen. And thirdly, we'll be watching closely his perspective on negative interest rate policy as we weigh up the costs and benefits and the transmission of negative rates into the real economy, albeit at the cost of profitability impacts for the banking sector. His testimony before the DIT on February 24th and his approach to negative interest rates under his governorship will be important to watch. We expect negative interest rate policy to be dropped, but not until 2024 in our base case, but this remains a key debate. So in terms of implications, this is more evolution than revolution for macro policy in Japan. And importantly, we see fiscal policy remaining supportive as the program of new capitalism and Ueda-san looks to strengthen social safety nets and double defense spending from 1% of GDP. Secondly, for equity markets, we see a resilient but still range bound outlook for the benchmark TOPIX Index. Our base case target of 2020 for December 2023 implies it doesn't quite break the top of its three year trading range, but remains well supported. Finally, at a sector level, banks and insurers may benefit from a tilting policy away from yield curve control. Again, especially if followed by a move back to zero rates from negative rate policy. In summary, we'll be watching for any shifts in the BoJ reaction function under the new leadership of Kazuo Ueda, but we do not expect a macro shock to asset markets. Instead, some micro adjustment in the yield curve control policy, and potentially negative interest rates, could help the sustainability of very low interest rates in Japan. Thanks for listening and if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
THE STAR MILL Short Film, Black & White Film Festival showcase. A boy and his pet owlbear learn to appreciate the present, and not worry about the future, while running a windmill that powers the stars at night. https://instagram.com/artdoingdan Film playing on the Film Festival Streaming service later this month. You can sign up for the 7 day free trial at www.wildsound.ca (available on your streaming services and APPS). There is a DAILY film festival to watch, plus a selection of award winning films on the platform. Then it's only $3.99 per month. Subscribe to the podcast: https://twitter.com/wildsoundpod https://www.instagram.com/wildsoundpod/ https://www.facebook.com/wildsoundpod
As various global markets contend with high inflation, recession risks, and monetary policy tightening, Japanese equities may provide some opportunities to diversify away from other developed markets.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss the resilience of Japanese equities in the face of an expected global downturn. It's Tuesday, September 13, at 8 a.m. in Singapore. As Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter noted in mid-August, the clouds of recession are gathering globally. In the U.S., the Fed is hiking rates and withdrawing liquidity. Europe is suffering from high inflation, looming recession and an energy shortage. And China is facing a rocky path to recovery. In this global context, the external risks for Japan are rising quickly. And yet, compared to the turbulence in the rest of the world, Japanese equities are enjoying rather calm domestic, macro and policy waters. In Japan, we see support for this cycle coming from three sources; domestic policy, the Japanese yen and capital discipline at the corporate sector. First, the monetary policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and global peers has been remarkable, and in our view justified by differences in inflation and growth backdrops. Japanese core inflation is just 1.4%, and if we strip out food and energy, inflation is a mere 0.4% year over year. And so we don't expect any tightening from the Bank of Japan or of fiscal policy over the next six months. Secondly, the Japanese yen is acting as a funding currency and a buffer for earnings, rather than the typical safe haven that historically tends to amplify earnings drawdowns in an economic downturn. And third, improving capital discipline is contributing to newfound earnings resilience and insulating the return on equity, with buybacks tracking at a record pace of ¥10 trillion annualized year to date. In addition to monetary and fiscal policy, Japan's more cautious approach to reducing COVID restrictions and employment focused stimulus programs have meant that the economy is in a different phase vis-a-vis other developed markets. Our expectation for Japan's economy is low but steady growth of 1.3% on average over 2022 and 2023. As for the Japanese yen, we believe that a weaker yen is still a tailwind for TOPIX earnings. As a result of policy and real rate divergence, as well as the negative terms of trade shock from higher commodity prices, the yen has fallen to fresh record lows on a real effective exchange rate basis. The impact of a historically weak currency on the overall economy is still the subject of some debate, but one of the largest transmission channels of a weaker yen into supporting domestic services and employment is through tourism activity, which has been constrained to date by COVID policies. But looking ahead, the combination of reopening and a highly competitive tourism offering should set up a very strong recovery in passenger volumes and spending, as we saw during the European summer this year. So where do all these global and domestic cross-currents leave us with respect to Japanese equities? We remain overweight on the TOPIX index versus our MSCI Asia-Pacific, ex-Japan and emerging markets coverage. We've been above consensus in forecasting an exceptional recovery in TOPIX earnings per share, but we acknowledge that to date it has been largely driven by export oriented stocks. But currently, the external environment for Asia's major exporters is weakening as a result of tighter policies, slower growth and a revision in spending from goods to services. So while this trend will impact, we think, Taiwan, Korea and Singapore more so, China and Japan will also feel the impacts given their large goods trade surpluses. But with all this said, the Japanese market still provides liquid opportunities to diversify away from the U.S. and Europe, where Morgan Stanley strategists are cautious. So while Japanese equities have historically underperformed in global downturns, the current setup leaves us more optimistic on Japan in particular, compared with other regions like the U.S. and Europe. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
We are joined by Max Ghenis (https://twitter.com/MaxGhenis), co-founder of Policy Engine https://twitter.com/ThePolicyEngine) for a conversation about ways technology can help folks understand the impact of public policy proposals. ### Resources and Shoutouts: - I, Daniel Blake (film)(https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5168192/){ - What we owe the future (book)(https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/59802037-what-we-owe-the-future)
Stress on supply chains has driven a slowdown in globalization, but there are also investment opportunities emerging, particularly in Asia. Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas and Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist Daniel Blake discuss.-----Transcript-----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Daniel Blake: And I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Team. Michael Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll continue our discussion of a theme that's been rightfully getting a lot of attention - "slowbalization", slowing globalization within an ever more multipolar world. It's Wednesday, May 25th, at 8 a.m. in New York. Michael Zezas: So Daniel, over the last few years, Morgan Stanley Research has published a lot of collaborative work across regions and sectors on the increasingly important themes of slowbalization and the multipolar world. But while in the past we focused more on the costs and challenges of this transition, today we want to put a greater emphasis on the opportunities from this theme, particularly in Asia. Investors are acutely aware that one of the key drivers behind this slowbalization trend is the tremendous disruption to the supply chain. You've been publishing a supply chain choke point tracker tool, so maybe let's start there with an update on the current state of supply chains in Asia and what your most recent tracker is indicating. Daniel Blake: Thanks, Mike. In short, this is showing that the supply chain in general remains very stressed. And in aggregate, we have not seen any material improvement over the last six weeks. Now, when we look at the aggregate measure put together by our economists, the Morgan Stanley Supply Chain Conditions Index, we are seeing that conditions are still slightly better than the peak of the disruptions and backlogs that occurred in late 2021, particularly around the delta wave in South East Asia. But we haven't seen much further improvement beyond that. Our checkpoint tracker does go down to the individual component or service level, and it shows that supply of certain auto and industrial semis and advanced packaging remains a constraint on downstream production. And we are seeing that show up in corporate results in the tech sector as well as the broader impact on margins that we're seeing into the consumer space. Michael Zezas: And one of the pressing issues that investors have been paying attention to is the new shocks to supply chains from China's COVID containment policy. Can you give us an update on the current impact of this policy?Daniel Blake: Now, so far, this is having a more noticeable impact on the domestic Chinese economy rather than on export markets, with policymakers trying to prioritize industrial output through systems such as closed loop management, which sees workers living on site for extended periods to maintain as much production as possible. The challenge has been most acute where mobility is needed, including in the transportation of raw materials and industrial production within China. Geographically, we've seen the impact on the Pearl River Delta around Shenzhen, the Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai and neighboring provinces, and more recently the capital, Beijing, is seeing an outbreak. So progress has been made on reopening from full lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai gradually, but our China economics team still estimate that about 25% of national GDP is being subject to some additional COVID restrictions. And again, we need to watch out for the progression of the outbreak closely.Michael Zezas: When do you expect to see an easing of supply chain choke points and what factors could drive that easing? Daniel Blake: One of the points in the blue paper from late 2021 was the role on the demand side, the generous stimulus and acute shifts in spending patterns from COVID had in driving demand well above the world's productive capacity, even before you consider the supply disruptions we're seeing. So heading into summer 2022, we get the flip side, which is what our consumer analysts call the great reversion. Stimulus rolls off, fiscal spending does taper, and we see spending returning to categories like travel and tourism and leisure, as opposed to demand for goods and electronics. That may mean we get an outright contraction in some product segments. Now, this downturn may not be the best way, but it's the probably quickest way to get to an easing of supply chain choke points. And we are getting more evidence of this in order cuts across PC and smartphone in Asia. On the more constructive side, we're also seeing CapEx coming into areas like driving edge semiconductor foundry. But we'll also need to watch commodity markets, particularly as we've got agricultural trade channels into the European summer looking highly stressed. And we're seeing policy responses in some markets that are looking to prioritize domestic demand for industrial output and for agricultural output over export markets. So we don't think we're through the worst of this just yet. So we really need to watch for conditions to improve potentially later in 2022. Michael Zezas: Now let's zero in for a moment on some sector level observations. Semiconductors, for example, has been one of the sectors most in focus in the context of slowbalization. Can you talk about some of the particular challenges semis are facing in East Asia? Daniel Blake: There really are two dimensions, I think to this. One is the centrality of semiconductor companies at the leading edge and the concentration of global production in several key markets, and in particular in Taiwan and Korea. Now, when we look at the challenges here we can see policymakers in major capitals, in D.C. and Beijing, looking to try to encourage more localization, more internalization of supply chains. And that's putting some pressure, but also creating incentives for companies to add new capacity into the U.S., and we're seeing capacity coming into the Japanese market as well. So the challenge and opportunity I think for these leading companies is to try to manage those pressure points and protect return on invested capital as much as possible in the face of the need to strengthen and secure additional capacity in supply chains. The other element, which is important in terms of the challenges for semis, is more cyclical and we have seen a surge in demand, we've seen a build up of margins in the industry as it has benefited from this pull forward, from the work from home spending. And on the other side of that, we are going to see a downturn which is potentially exacerbated by the inventory buildup that has happened across the board in semis. Some semiconductor components are still in acute supply, but there are many that are not so disrupted, and when we look at the outlook we have seen inventory build up across the board. The risk is in the downturn, we start to see deeper order cuts because the inventory in aggregate is actually higher than what we've seen historically. Michael Zezas: Now shifting towards some macro level takeaways. The dynamic between the U.S. and China could be challenging, but is also creating potential opportunities for other countries such as Vietnam, India and Indonesia. Can you walk us through the tailwinds as well as the headwinds for these countries and what they're doing to take advantage of the situation? Daniel Blake: Yes, in Asia-Pacific, we have seen Vietnam already playing an important role for corporates as a complement to Chinese supply chains. It's smaller, but it's a natural extension of existing production facilities in China. But we've also seen policy and corporate momentum, the reform story, improving most notably in India, but also improving in Indonesia. And both markets have enacted quite deep and broad reform programs to lower corporate tax rates, to liberalize foreign direct investment rules, to invest in infrastructure and generally to make their market more attractive for multinational corporates as they're reassessing their supply chain strategy and looking to diversify. In terms of our preferences we are currently overweight Indonesia right now in our Asia Pacific, ex-Japan and Emerging Markets rankings. It benefits from strong commodity export dynamics and we also see long term opportunities coming through in terms of supply chain investments in Indonesia. But India has a very attractive long run story. If we can see continued execution, this market will present both domestic and export opportunities, and the production linked incentives being offered have been taken up by corporates and are helping to drive this foreign direct investment cycle. Michael Zezas: Daniel, thanks for taking the time to talk. It was great to have you here in person. Daniel Blake: Great speaking with you, Michael. Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. For a look inside some of the human impacts of the recent supply chain disruptions, and how people are trying to resolve them, check out the latest season of Morgan Stanley's podcast "Now, What's Next?" on your podcast app of choice. 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