Podcasts about nzier

To give you an insight into just how hard Christian Hawkesby's job is today, have a look at what the shadow board says. The NZIER has a monetary policy shadow board. It's a bunch of economists and their view as to what should be happening. Some say drop by 25 basis points, one says 50, and some say don't do anything. How do you deal with that? These are experts. They know what they are doing. Or do they? So no matter what Christian does some of them are going to go "what on Earth was he thinking?" Think about the difference between 50 basis points and nothing. 50 basis points is a lot. 50 means things aren't good, and we need to fire the place up a bit. If we don't move it means things are just where we want them. Are they where we want them? No, is my answer. But then I'm not an economist. Most of them say things like "boy this is tricky". My word is "uncertainty" – the watch word of the day. It's through this murky mix of "who the hell knows what's going on" that Christian has to wade and produce something that will see us head into a half decent Christmas. Of course that's part of the mess we are in. There is a lot of water to go under our beleaguered bridge before Christmas, and a number of decisions from the Reserve Bank, along of course with the much-dissected commentary. What does 25, or 50 basis points, or nothing, mean? What's old Christian thinking? I'll tell you this for nothing – a big part of this equation is mood. It's the same with the Budget last week and the depreciation measures. You have to want to get amongst it. You have to take your mortgage rate cut and do something with it. You have to want to buy your tractor, or ute, and depreciate it by 20%. If you are in a funk and you're not spending, then depreciating 20% of zero is nothing and no one gains. Christian, or Nicola for that matter, can't do it all. At some point we have to believe. We have to have our arm twisted. We have to see a bit of light. The most powerful factor in any economy is us, and mood. At some point a switch has to go off, a decision has to be made, and we need to look forward to better days. Let's hope today is a part of that story. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stats NZ will release Consumer Price Index inflation numbers for quarter four on Wednesday, and economists are predicting it will be within the Reserve Banks's target range of 1 - 3% It comes off the back of December card spending numbers which saw retail spending increase by 2% NZ Institute for Economic Research Deputy Chief Executive Christina Leung says they're expecting a rise of 0.6% for the quarter, and put annual inflation at 2.2% She says today's numbers shouldn't change the chances of a rates cut in February, expected to be 0.5% LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's REX Daily Podcast, Dom talks with Dr Bill Kaye-Blake from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) about a new study he co-authored, commissioned by Organics Aotearoa NZ, which reveals NZ's primary sector exports could reduce by $10-20b annually if genetically modified organisms (GMOs) were to be released into the environment... He talks with Catherine Ward from Pahi Coastal Walk about winning the Supreme Award at the NZI Rural Women NZ Business Awards, the idea behind the initiative at her Port Jackson farm and how it's become a successful enterprise... He talks with NZ Pork CEO Brent Kleiss about a significant influx of imported pork, why the gap is widening between between locally grown and imported pork and the best way to prepare a Christmas ham... And he catches up with rural health and wellbeing advocate Craig 'Wiggy' Wiggins. Tune in daily for the latest and greatest REX rural content on your favourite streaming platform, visit rexonline.co.nz and follow us on Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn for more.

New data out this morning is expected to show more of us are out of a job. Stats NZ is releasing the latest unemployment rate at 10.45. Most economists expect it will rise from 4.6% in the June quarter to 5% in the September quarter. But NZIER Principal Economist Christina Leung told Mike Hosking she expects it will rise even higher. She says they believe the unemployment rate will peak at just under 6% towards the end of 2025. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Auckland mayor Wayne Brown has launched a bid to establish a direct flight from Auckland Airport to Brazil's Sao Paulo. He believes this could boost trade between New Zealand and Brazil by up to $1.5 billion a year. NZIER Principal Economist Chris Nixon says this is a good idea - and could open up new opportunities for New Zealand. "Given the mayhem which is happening in the United States at the moment and their incoherent economic policies - we've got to be innovative." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Auckland mayor Wayne Brown has launched a bid to establish a direct flight from Auckland Airport to Brazil's Sao Paulo. He believes this could boost trade between New Zealand and Brazil by up to $1.5 billion a year. NZIER Principal Economist Chris Nixon says this is a good idea - and could open up new opportunities for New Zealand. "Given the mayhem which is happening in the United States at the moment and their incoherent economic policies - we've got to be innovative." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

NZIER's latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a marked improvement in business confidence in the September quarter. A net 5 percent of firms expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months - a significant drop from the net 40 percent that expected a downturn three months ago. NZIER deputy chief executive Christina Leung says demand was quite weak over the September quarter, but expectations have gone up for the subsequent months. "Expectations for the next quarter are looking more positive, and that's particularly the case for sectors such as retail and services - to the extent that these are the sectors that are more exposed to the household sector." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

NZIER's latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a marked improvement in business confidence in the September quarter. A net 5 percent of firms expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months - a significant drop from the net 40 percent that expected a downturn three months ago. NZIER deputy chief executive Christina Leung says demand was quite weak over the September quarter, but expectations have gone up for the subsequent months. "Expectations for the next quarter are looking more positive, and that's particularly the case for sectors such as retail and services - to the extent that these are the sectors that are more exposed to the household sector." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US labour market will be in focus this week, as investors speculate on the likelihood of another 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November. There will also be a debate between the US Vice Presidential candidates in New York this week. Locally, business confidence will be in the spotlight with the ANZ Business Outlook for September due on Monday and the NZIER's QSBO out the next day.

New reports confirm at least 68 percent of small and medium Kiwi businesses currently have no plans to use AI. Data from NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion says many of these businesses cited a lack of understanding and perceived absence of value as the barriers to AI adoption. Spark Head of Data Matt Bain says the required training to properly use AI has put plenty of companies off.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New reports confirm at least 68 percent of small and medium Kiwi businesses currently have no plans to use AI. Data from NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion says many of these businesses cited a lack of understanding and perceived absence of value as the barriers to AI adoption. Spark Head of Data Matt Bain says the required training to properly use AI has put plenty of companies off.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christopher Luxon has reason to smile this morning – there are two sets of data to cheer about.  First, the poll. He's shaking off that slightly cringe CEO moniker and cementing himself as a man with a plan, in charge, across most of the issues, and not allowing himself to become too distracted by the inevitable noise that comes with running the ninth floor.  The latest taxpayer's union curia poll is out, it has National up 1.4 to 39%  That's an extra seat from National, NZ First also get another, while there's also no change for ACT. Safe across the line for the coalition, with 67 seats.  Preferred Prime Minister is getting interesting.  Chippy's gone off a cliff, the trend is down, but this result's a shocker – he's down 6.1 points to 12.6%.  Luxon? 32.7%.  Chippy is now almost within margin of error with, not Luxon, but Chlöe on 7.2%.  The other numbers today, NZIER's quarterly consensus data.  Not so great for us, at least in the short term. Big fat zero GDP growth in the year to March.  That's depressing. We've had almost two years of recession, or close to now, and people just want this country firing again.  That's where Luxon will be happy to see this prediction: 2.2% growth expected in the year to March 2026.  And we know what else is happening in 2026, right? An election.  It's humble, not runaway, but after these past years it's electoral fairy dust.  People don't generally vote on race relations, the politics of envy or climate change.  They vote on how rich they feel and who might make them richer.  Luxon, at least on these numbers, would appear to have the upper hand on that front. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, Eric Crampton and Sarah Hogan, Deputy Chief Executive at NZIER, discuss a new report estimating the social costs of alcohol in New Zealand at $9 billion, with a focus on how such figures are calculated and used in policymaking. They explore the challenges of accurately attributing costs to alcohol, debate the effectiveness of targeted interventions versus broad policies, and emphasize the importance of addressing first-order problems like fetal alcohol spectrum disorder while ensuring cost-effective approaches to reducing alcohol-related harms.

This episode of "Now That's Significant, a Market Research Podcast," takes a deep dive into the current state of the New Zealand economy and its implications for the market research industry. Host Michael Howard brings you a panel discussion from the Research Association New Zealand's AGM, featuring experts from various sectors. The panel, moderated by Chair Ian Mills, includes Rob Clark from Seek, Carin Hercock from Ipsos, Jason Shoebridge from NZIER, and Liza Van der Merwe from Deloitte Access Economics. Here are five key points discussed: This Time Feels Different: The panel agrees that the current economic climate feels different from past recessions. Factors like the rapid transition from a high-spending Covid period to a recession, the reliance on migration for economic growth, and the impact of global geopolitical tensions contribute to this unique situation. Consumer Confidence and Inflation: Consumer confidence is low, driven by high inflation and the rising cost of living. The panel discusses the impact of housing costs and mortgage rates on consumer sentiment, noting that inflation in New Zealand remains stubbornly high compared to other countries. The Power of Narrative: The discussion highlights the influence of media narratives on public perception of the economy. The panel emphasizes the need for market researchers to be a voice of reason, providing data-driven insights to counterbalance negative or sensationalized reporting. Financial Literacy and Transparency: The panel raises concerns about financial literacy levels and the need for greater transparency in communicating economic data to the public. They suggest that market researchers can play a role in educating consumers and helping them understand the impact of economic trends on their lives. Productivity and Innovation: The panel identifies low productivity as a key challenge for the New Zealand economy. They discuss the need for greater investment in technology, innovation, and skills development to boost productivity and drive sustainable economic growth. A question for our listeners: How can market researchers effectively communicate complex economic data to the public in a way that is both accurate and engaging, fostering greater understanding and informed decision-making? Enjoy the podcast *** Infotools Harmoni is a fit-for-purpose market research analysis, visualization, and reporting platform that gives the world's leading brands the tools they need to better understand their consumers, customers, organization, and market. www.infotools.com Established in 1990, we work with some of the world's top brands around the world, including Coca-Cola, Orange, Samsung, and Mondelēz. Our powerful cloud-based platform, Harmoni, is purpose-built for market research. From data processing to investigation, dashboards to collaboration, Harmoni is a true "data-to-decision-making" solution for in-house corporate insights teams and agencies. While we don't facilitate market research surveys, we make it easy for to find and share compelling insights that go over-and-above what stakeholders want, inspiring them to act decisively. One of the most powerful features of Harmoni is Discover, a time-tested, time-saving, and investigative approach to data analysis. Using automated analyses to reveal patterns and trends, Discover minimizes potential research bias by removing the need for requesting and manually analyzing scores of cumbersome crosstabs – often seeing what you can't. Discover helps you easily find what differentiates groups that matter to you, uncover what makes them unique, and deliver data points that are interesting, relevant, and statistically significant, plus see things others can't. Add to all this an impending GenAI feature, and you have an extremely powerful, future-proofed tool

The changing whims of different governments are putting financial pressure on councils.   A report from NZIER has found central government underestimates what its reforms cost councils to implement.   Local Government New Zealand is calling for more assistance from Government to help them carry the cost.   Vice President and Lower Hutt Mayor Campbell Barry says the speed limit increases under the previous Government cost $570 thousand for his council to implement.   He says the Government's new directive to reverse speed limit increases will cost another $570 thousand.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An NZIER report finds New Zealand's inadvertently discouraging talented people from moving here.  Our current tax laws make expat Kiwis and migrants pay for the investments they made before coming here.  The rules impose tax on the paper value of those investments, even if they are still in start-up phase and not making any income.   Founder of US-based capital firm Shasta Rob Coneybeer told Mike Hosking the rules are out of step compared to other OECD countries.  “Among the returning Kiwi expat community, the talented people that can help build technology startups, this is something that people are very aware of and has had an impact over time.” LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The economy could be slowing down more than expected.  NZIER is revising down its forecasts for annual average GDP growth to 0.2% in the year to March this year and 0.6% in the year to March next year.  It says high interest rates are continuing to dampen demand.  But Principal Economist Christina Leung told Mike Hosking that strong migration growth should ensure the economy starts growing again.  She says migration is expected to support demand across a range of areas, particularly when it comes to construction.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Concern over a quarter of new primary teachers not passing NCEA Level 1 maths. The Institute of Economic Research has analysed NCEA achievement of those starting between 2017 and 2022. It found more than half didn't pass Level 1 science. Deputy chief executive and principal economist, Sarah Hogan, says this confirms what other studies have claimed - that primary teachers are not equipped to teach maths. "I guess what's new about here is that it's even worse for science." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Northland businesses are telling Government to commit to a full expressway between Northland and Auckland.  A NZIER report found a four-lane highway between Auckland and Whangārei would bring millions to the region's economy.  Northland Corporate Group Co-Chair Andrew McLeod says the evidence for the benefits are clear.  He told Mike Hosking that the Government just needs to make a decision now, because it's currently hurting Northland business.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ahead of tomorrow's OCR announcement from Adrian Orr, we ask this independent economist if the Reserve Bank needs to shift the inflation goalposts with the recession starting to bite, according to the latest NZIER survey.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I am calling time on my support for the reinstatement of the Anglican cathedral in Cathedral Square. Because we now know that what we suspected is, in fact, true and the whole project is in financial strife and may be about to come to a complete standstill.  The job is bigger than first thought and the project needs to find an extra $114 million - taking the overall cost to $248 million.  And here's the crucial bit. If the first $30 million of that $114 million can't be found by September - five months from now - work will stop completely and the cathedral will be mothballed, indefinitely.  If that isn't bad enough, it seems the people running the project are still somewhat delusional. How do I know that? I'll get to that shortly.  But I should tell you first that, for me, this is another one of those “what good is a mind if you can't change it” situations. And my confidence and support has gone.  Because it was only about six weeks ago that I was saying that, if we really want to finish this reinstatement once-and-for-all, then more ratepayer money is going to be the only option.  So far, $30 million of public money has gone into it. $10 million from ratepayers and $20 million from taxpayers. And six weeks ago, I said that more public money is needed because expecting people to donate money is just daft. And it's not going to come from taxpayers. Which just leaves ratepayers.  But I didn't know six weeks ago that costs have gone through the roof and the project is now short of $114 million. That's even with the church putting in another $16 million of its own money.  So, let's do some numbers. There are about 184,000 ratepayers in Christchurch. And if the extra $114 million was going to come from us, it would equate to around $700 each. More if the council borrowed the money and there was interest on top of that.  I actually think $700-per-ratepayer doesn't sound too bad when you consider how much of a handbrake the cathedral is on future development in and around Cathedral Square.  That's because the reinstatement work isn't limited to the land the cathedral sits on. There's a lot of space around the cathedral that can't be used because it's also needed for the reinstatement work. And this is stopping any other developments from happening.  But, six weeks on, I've changed my mind. And the reason for that is that I've lost confidence. For a couple of reasons.  First - and this is where we get to my point about the people behind the project being deluded. Despite announcing this $114 million funding hole and saying that, if $30 million of it can't be raised in just four months, then the whole thing will be mothballed - despite all that, they're still banging on about fundraising.  Here's what the Chair of the project, Mark Stewart said at the weekend.  “We are confident we can raise a further $26 million of fundraising, on top of the $24 million raised so far.”  Now they've done well raising $24 million, don't get me wrong. But they're dreaming, thinking they're going to get another $26 million. Because, if it was do-able, it would have been done by now.  Originally, they set out to raise $51 million by the end of last year. But they're only around the halfway mark and that's because people with truckloads of money don't give it away for buildings anymore. Let alone a building that is a miniature copy of hundreds - if not thousands - of vastly more impressive cathedrals around the world.  So, they need to give up on this pipedream that more fundraising is part of the answer.  The other reason why the reinstatement project has lost my confidence, is what an economic impact report done by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) says. Its report was released by the cathedral people on the weekend, at the same time they were announcing the funding crisis.  There are a couple of comments in that report that caught my eye. But first, here's what it says about the possible economic benefits for Christchurch of a reinstated cathedral. The NZIER reckons it could mean up to $20.8 million in additional tourism spending every year.  But they then go on to say this: “The most important benefits arise from the building's non-use value. Non-use value mainly consists of the value people gain from knowing that the cathedral has been reinstated, even if they do not visit it.”  And the other line that caught my eye, says: “There is a high-level of uncertainty around both the number of people who will benefit from the reinstated cathedral and the value of the benefit.”  Now the reason why the cathedral project sent this report out with its media release on Saturday morning, was to try and build confidence and justify more public money going into the reinstatement.  But it's had the complete opposite effect on me. Because, while the idea of $20 million in increased visitor spend is not to be sneezed at, the fact this report also says there is a high level of uncertainty about the benefits and who would actually benefit, is incredibly flimsy as far as I'm concerned.  And, I've come to the conclusion that the reinstatement should never have been allowed to start in the first place, and the cathedral should have been demolished all those years ago. And if there's a way of making that happen now, then just do it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is New Zealand in recession? Economists say it will be a close-run thing when GDP figures come out on Thursday. The Institute for Economic Research is predicting Thursday's economic update will show weak growth over the three months to December. NZIER principal economist Christina Leung spoke to Corin Dann.

How do you measure the cost of the Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle? A year on from these catastrophic weather events, NZIER economist Roshen Kulwant joins Bernard Hickey to discuss which costs we're measuring, what we've learnt and what still needs to be done. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don't expect any major change to interest rates before Christmas.  The Reserve Bank is tipped to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% at its next review at 2pm today.  Economists and commentators remain divided on whether there will be further hikes in the current cycle.  NZIER's Christina Leung told Tim Dower that, for now, previous hikes appear to be having the desired effect.  However, she says there is still work to be done yet to ease inflation.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Harbour Asset Management's Chris Di Leva and NZIER principal economist Chrstina Leung discuss the course of interest rates and the impact on investment circumstances over the next year. This is from our previous episode, 'What does the election mean for investors?' where we discuss which sectors to watch and we find out the mood of business based on a blue or a red government.  Brought to you by Sharesies, with BusinessDesk. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own. Shared Lunch is not financial advice. We recommend talking to a licensed financial adviser. You should review relevant product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Content is current at the time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the general election just days away we ask  the experts what's in store for investors and businesses? Harbour Asset Management's Chris Di Leva and NZIER economist Christina Leung discuss which sectors to watch and we find out the mood of business based on a blue or a red government. For more or to follow the podcast —check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch Brought to you by Sharesies, with BusinessDesk.Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own. Shared Lunch is not financial advice. We recommend talking to a licensed financial adviser. You should review relevant product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Content is current at the time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Campaigners for one of the nation's deadliest cancers feel like their cause is being ignored this election. At last night's debate, Luxon and Hipkins both promised to lower the age for free bowel cancer screenings going forward. Prostate Cancer Foundation President Danny Bedingfield says the Government has show it cares about people's lives- but their cause needs more support. "What we're looking for is actually a trial of a prostate cancer screening program. We've had to do a lot of this background work ourselves, we've gone to the NZIER and asked them- what would it cost?" LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR untouched at 5.5 percent on Wednesday. The last time the Reserve Bank didn't raise the OCR at a formal review point was in August 2021. BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie says one NZIER expert predicted an increase, but he'd be surprised if went up. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR untouched at 5.5 percent on Wednesday. The last time the Reserve Bank didn't raise the OCR at a formal review point was in August 2021. BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie says one NZIER expert predicted an increase, but he'd be surprised if went up. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Business confidence has improved in the latest survey from NZIER, but there are worries in the mix. Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion data shows 59 percent of businesses expect a deterioration of business conditions, down from 63 percent. BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie says businesses are worried about soft sales as the economy slows down. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Business confidence has improved in the latest survey from NZIER, but there are worries in the mix. Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion data shows 59 percent of businesses expect a deterioration of business conditions, down from 63 percent. BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie says businesses are worried about soft sales as the economy slows down. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Excess profits are unlikely to be a significant driver of inflation as business profitability has been declining as inflation has risen, an economist says. Speaking on the Of Interest podcast, principal economist at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, Christina Leung, said businesses have reported cost pressure becoming more intense as inflation has surged.  Earlier, the unprecedented amount of economic stimulus propped up demand and allowed some businesses to pass on higher costs to customers. But as the Reserve Bank has withdrawn that support, it has become much more difficult to pass on costs. “The fact that with that softening in demand, businesses are at reduced pricing power, but with cost pressures still not moderating enough for them to recoup margin, you are in this environment where operating margins are still quite crunched in.”According to Reuters, data presented to policymakers at an European Central Bank's (ECB) retreat in Finland showed that companies in the euro zone were increasing profit margins in the face of sharp input cost increases. The Reserve Bank has said increases in both real profits and wages have contributed to inflation, although the data on wages was much more comprehensive than on profits. Leung said there may be examples of businesses that have been able to “take advantage, increase prices and bolster their margins”. However, NZIER's quarterly survey showed profitability has been declining in aggregate. Most industries are fairly competitive and businesses in those sectors have been eating their margins, rather than risk losing customers. “If there was a lack of healthy competition within certain industries, then you would tend to see probably more opportunistic pricing behavior take place.”You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.

Another half-percent on the OCR, which was harsher than most pundits had predicted and takes the cash rate to 5.25 percent. 11 hikes in a row now, yet inflation is still painfully high. The RBNZ says employment is also still beyond what's sustainable and it says recent weather events have pushed some prices even higher. The fact the economic pundits were caught off guard is more than a bit of a worry. ”No one saw this coming”...that's Imre Speizer at Westpac. Capital Economics is now picking a protracted recession, saying it'll be so sharp that rates will have to be cut again by the end of the year. The NZIER says capacity constraints are easing and now is not the time to be adding further interest rates increases it says. And on it goes. Point is; these guys do tend to be ahead of the curve with what they project. In the main, they're pretty good at weighing up exactly where we are now, rather than looking at where we were two or three months back and getting out the smoke and mirrors. And where we are now is in a recession. House prices are tumbling, the employment market is weakening and GDP is in decline. People are moving off cheap home loans and wondering where they'll find hundreds more for the mortgage, plus hundreds more to feed the family and run the car. So what we're hearing now is a fear the recession that RBNZ wanted, the recession it says we needed, won't be short, or shallow. Conclusions? After the car crash caused by printing money for the pandemic, we've got a wall of debt to deal with and a mountain of pain to come for ordinary kiwis. What we can see now is that the fallout will be there for all to see, in time for the election. Will all that translate into votes on October 14th...well...that's one for the political pundits.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another half-percent on the OCR, which was harsher than most pundits had predicted and takes the cash rate to 5.25 percent. 11 hikes in a row now, yet inflation is still painfully high. The RBNZ says employment is also still beyond what's sustainable and it says recent weather events have pushed some prices even higher. The fact the economic pundits were caught off guard is more than a bit of a worry. ”No one saw this coming”...that's Imre Speizer at Westpac. Capital Economics is now picking a protracted recession, saying it'll be so sharp that rates will have to be cut again by the end of the year. The NZIER says capacity constraints are easing and now is not the time to be adding further interest rates increases it says. And on it goes. Point is; these guys do tend to be ahead of the curve with what they project. In the main, they're pretty good at weighing up exactly where we are now, rather than looking at where we were two or three months back and getting out the smoke and mirrors. And where we are now is in a recession. House prices are tumbling, the employment market is weakening and GDP is in decline. People are moving off cheap home loans and wondering where they'll find hundreds more for the mortgage, plus hundreds more to feed the family and run the car. So what we're hearing now is a fear the recession that RBNZ wanted, the recession it says we needed, won't be short, or shallow. Conclusions? After the car crash caused by printing money for the pandemic, we've got a wall of debt to deal with and a mountain of pain to come for ordinary kiwis. What we can see now is that the fallout will be there for all to see, in time for the election. Will all that translate into votes on October 14th...well...that's one for the political pundits.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anxiety across the economy, about the business year ahead. New figures from NZIER show business confidence has plunged to its lowest level since records began more than half a century ago. Almost three quarters of businesses expect economic conditions to worsen in the coming months. BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope Tim Dower inflation and rising interest rates are taking their toll on consumer spending, as the world grapples with the war in Ukraine and global trading instability. He says businesses are also putting off investment decisions until after the election. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anxiety across the economy, about the business year ahead. New figures from NZIER show business confidence has plunged to its lowest level since records began more than half a century ago. Almost three quarters of businesses expect economic conditions to worsen in the coming months. BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope Tim Dower inflation and rising interest rates are taking their toll on consumer spending, as the world grapples with the war in Ukraine and global trading instability. He says businesses are also putting off investment decisions until after the election. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) released its Summer 2022 Reading List for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. NZIER partnered with BusinessDesk to compile a list of books for the PM and her advisers to read to better equip them for the economic challenges of 2023. BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie says the exercise is meant to be thought-provoking and in good fun, and that the likelihood of Jacinda Ardern taking it seriously is low. Some of the books Pattrick mentioned are Kāwai: For Such a Time as This, by Monty Souter and The End of the World is Just Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this year's budget, the Government said it has increased Pharmac's funding by 43 percent over the last 5 years. To get that huge increase, the Government simply took money from the DHB Hospital Medicine budget and gave it to Pharmac, according to new data from NZIER. The NZIER Principal Health Economist, Sarah Hogan, is among the people who have been looking into this. "There has been a little bit of new money going into Pharmac to fund new medicines and other things that fall under the combined pharmaceutical budget, but most of the increase we've seen has been the transfer of medicines that were purchased by DHBs for use within hospitals." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Banks have recently been making it harder for home-buyers to get a mortgage.  Two of the biggest banks in the country, ASB and ANZ have lifted their test mortgage rates. ASB has raised theirs to 8.13 percent and ANZ is currently at 7.95 percent.  NZIER Principal Economist, Christina Leung, is here with us to explain why this is the case.  "With the rising interest rate environment, banks have to increase the test rates in order to ensure that borrowers have to buffer to withstand any negative shocks, such as a further increase in interest rate." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand's terrible record when it comes to diagnosing prostate cancer is causing those who receive the diagnosis to lose hundreds of millions in earnings. Research between the NZIER and Prostate Cancer Foundation found that on average, men who get a late diagnosis lose out on about $12,000 over four years. While it might not seem like a huge amount, when you realise that almost 60 percent of cases are late diagnoses, it adds up to more than $300 million in reduced earnings over that four year period. And compare that to catching it early - which means there is no loss of earnings. NZIER principal economist Sarah Hogan did the research and Sarah joined Mike Hosking. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our serial underfunding of the aged care sector could come back to bite a lot of older New Zealanders. A new NZIER report has found that we often access finance for residential care by selling our homes, but with declining home ownership rates that pathway is looking less likely. We also spend less government money compared to other OECD countries and haven't changed the funding model since the year 2000. Arvida CEO and Aged Care Matters spokesperson Jeremy Nicolls joined Mike Hosking. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The path to avoiding a hard economic landing continues to look tricky.Business confidence has plummeted back to March 2020 levels in NZIER's latest survey, with 62 percent of businesses expecting economic conditions to deteriorate.ASB is warning of the possibility of stagflation.JMI Wealth Director Andrew Kelleher told Mike Hosking nothing in this survey suggests it's getting any easier.He says all in all, you're getting a picture of faltering expectations of activity, high inflation expectations and a really tight labour market.LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Optimism that the country can side-step stagflation.The latest NZIER survey has business confidence at its weakest since March 2020, with 62 percent of businesses expecting economic conditions to deteriorate.ASB Bank is warning of the possibility of stagflation, where there's high inflation and recession.ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking to have persistent stagflation, the Reserve Bank would need to lose its inflation targeting credibility.LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Female cricketers will be paid the same as male cricketers.A five-year pay deal has been agreed between NZC, the Players Association and the six regional cricket associations.Business confidence has dropped to its lowest levels since March 2020.NZIER say that 62 percent of businesses expect economic conditions to deteriorate, with 37 percent of businesses saying the lack of labour is restricting them to grow.A school in Auckland has gone back to online learning.Carmel College will do this for the rest of the week, citing staff issues caused by illnesses, including Covid-19.Two parents are suing TikTok for the deaths of their 8 and 9-year-old children.The kids died from taking part in the 'blackout challenge' – where users choke themselves to the point of unconsciousness.David Farrar and Hayden Munro joined Heather du Plessis-Allan on The HuddleSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The business community is feeling downbeat.Business confidence is back down to March 2020 levels, with 62 percent of businesses expecting economic conditions to deteriorate.New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Principal Economist Christina Leung says worker shortages are troubling Kiwi firms.She told Heather du Plessis-Allan border restrictions loosening could change that.“So we do expect that recovery in net inflow and the labour shortages being alleviated to some extent as firms do bring in workers from other countries.”LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The business community is feeling downbeat.Business confidence is back down to March 2020 levels, with 62 percent of businesses expecting economic conditions to deteriorate.New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Principal Economist Christina Leung says worker shortages are troubling Kiwi firms.She told Heather du Plessis-Allan border restrictions loosening could change that.“So we do expect that recovery in net inflow and the labour shortages being alleviated to some extent as firms do bring in workers from other countries.”LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The path to avoiding a hard economic landing continues to look tricky.Business confidence has plummeted back to March 2020 levels in NZIER's latest survey, with 62 percent of businesses expecting economic conditions to deteriorate.ASB is warning of the possibility of stagflation.JMI Wealth Director Andrew Kelleher told Mike Hosking nothing in this survey suggests it's getting any easier.He says all in all, you're getting a picture of faltering expectations of activity, high inflation expectations and a really tight labour market.LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Optimism that the country can side-step stagflation.The latest NZIER survey has business confidence at its weakest since March 2020, with 62 percent of businesses expecting economic conditions to deteriorate.ASB Bank is warning of the possibility of stagflation, where there's high inflation and recession.ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking to have persistent stagflation, the Reserve Bank would need to lose its inflation targeting credibility.LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Women who choose to leave the workforce or work part-time after having children could be forfeiting between $58,000 and $318,000 in retirement savings, research by NZIER has revealed.The economic consultancy was charged with looking at the key drivers behind the 20 per cent gap between men and women's average KiwiSaver balances by state-owned KiwiSaver provider Kiwi Wealth.It found labour force participation, the pay equity gap, career gaps and changes because of motherhood and low confidence and knowledge of the retirement savings scheme were behind the gap.Christina Leung, principal economist at NZIER, said it wanted to quantify the effect of each driver and come up with policy solutions that could help ease the shortfalls."We know there is a gap but the extent of it was quite important for us to put a value on each of those drivers so that we are aware... and know which of the policy interventions would get the most bang for your buck."LISTEN ABOVE

Surprise from some economists at the size of the Official Cash Rate rise. The Reserve Bank has lifted the rate by half a percent, to 1.5 percent. NZIER principal economist, Christina Leung, says she thought there was a 50/50 chance of the rise being 50 basis points. But she told Mike Hosking the central bank is balancing a lot of different factors. Leung says there's a surge in inflation pressures, but there's also uncertainty from how the Covid-19 outbreak will evolve, and the war in Ukraine. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Surprise from some economists at the size of the Official Cash Rate rise. The Reserve Bank has lifted the rate by half a percent, to 1.5 percent. NZIER principal economist, Christina Leung, says she thought there was a 50/50 chance of the rise being 50 basis points. But she told Mike Hosking the central bank is balancing a lot of different factors. Leung says there's a surge in inflation pressures, but there's also uncertainty from how the Covid-19 outbreak will evolve, and the war in Ukraine. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yesterday Nine to Noon looked at a new report into the declining rates of literacy and numeracy in the country and what could be done to fix it. This morning Lynn focuses on the $11b missing from the economy from people who aren't dealt a fair hand in the education system. They're called 'under-served' learners and there's 66,290 of them; students who leave school with low, or no qualifications, with Maori, Pasifika and the disabled over-represented. A new analysis from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research has put a dollar figure on how much under-served learners are missing out on in earnings: compared to those with a level 4 - 6 qualification, it's $500,000 over their working life. The research was prepared by NZIER principal economist Michael Bealing, who talks to Lynn about how the $11b was measured. She'll also talk to Mark Rushworth, UP Education group chief executive, about the report the research informs.

NZIER economist Christina Leung shares her best and worst money stories with Liam Dann.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An economic think-tank is warning our economy will suffer unless changes are made to the way maths is taught. Maths scores have been declining for the past twenty years, relative to other OECD countries.

An economic think-tank is warning our economy will suffer unless changes are made to the way maths is taught. Maths scores have been declining for the past twenty years, relative to other OECD countries.

Debra is the General Counsel and Chief Goverance Officer at Z Energy Limited. Z is a New Zealand energy company and one of New Zealand's largest fuel companies, providing around one third of New Zealand's total fuel needs. Debra is deeply interested in the economic wellbeing and future of New Zealand, particularly in the principles and practice of well designed, commercially pragmatic regulatory regimes. Debra was the Vice President of the Law and Economics Association of New Zealand and sat on the supervisory committee of the Law Foundation's collaboration with Victoria University, Chapman Tripp and NZIER's development of world class principles on regulation. Connect with Debra here. --------------------------------------- r. || www.linktr.ee/ROBETT || r. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/robett/message

Businesses want to know how prepared the country is for another lockdown.The latest NZIER business opinion survey shows an improvement in business confidence for the final quarter of last year - with just 16 per cent expecting a deterioration in economic conditions over the coming months. However, the Employers and Manufacturers Association says there are still concerns about what will happen if there is another lockdown, given the new strains of Covid-19 overseas. EMA chief executive Brett O'Reilly, has written to the government, asking how they might approach a future lockdown.He told Heather du Plessis-Allan businesses need a clear idea about how they can operate."We'd want to talk about wage subsidy and just give businesses some certainty that if their workers cannot come to work, the subsidy would be out there, and just give businesses as much confidence as possible."O'Reilly says businesses want to be in the best possible situation if we do reach the worst scenario. LISTEN ABOVE 

Christina Leung is a Principal Economist and Head of Membership Services at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, where she looks after NZIER's economic forecasts and analysis of the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion. In addition, Christina also undertakes analysis for a wide range of clients in assessing issues important for the New Zealand economy including the economic impact of an industry, investment or significant event (such as COVID-19). Prior to working at NZIER, Christina worked at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and ASB Bank. Christina is a CFA charterholder, and holds a Bachelor of Commerce with first class honours in Economics from the University of Auckland. "When you try to do something that's a little bit scary and out of your comfort zone, and then you manage to do it, it's such a confidence booster."

I'm sure the Helen Clark Foundation and the NZIER mean well with their calls for a big minimum wage boost. They say the fallout from Covid - the lack of skilled migrants coming into the country; the cheap money that's gushing from the money fountain in Wellington - means that we're in a unique position to build a more inclusive economy that shares the gains. NZIER deputy chief executive Todd Krebble says the impact of the Covid has not been felt equally - young people, women, people in particular sectors like tourism and hospitality, Maori and Pasifika are all doing it far tougher than the rest of the population. So he's calling for a shift to “predistribution” – backing people from the outset with good wages and investment in them, rather than the current benefit system of redistribution to those who fell behind. He also says that with money never having been cheaper, this is a brilliant time to invest in capital equipment and upskilling staff. He told Mike Hosking that increasing theIs it really that simple, though?  Pay people more and they'll work harder?  Invest in more modern plant equipment and you'll make more stuff that you can sell for more profit that you can then reinvest in your people?I'm not a business owner but I remember an old boss of mine saying he loved it when people had kids and got mortgages.  It made them terrified and very grateful to have their jobs, he said. Which brings us back to housing affordability.  At the moment all roads lead to housing affordability.  If people have houses they are more settled.  They're more invested in their jobs and their communities.  I don't think it is as simple as pay them more, you'll get more out of them. I do believe in retraining and helping people who are economic casualties of Covid into new jobs.  But is that the responsibility of business?  Surely that's a government responsibility. Anyway, as I say I'm not a business owner, and Todd Krebble hasn't been either according to his CV.  Undoubtedly a very clever man but seems to have only worked in government departments and UN institutions.  Every single small and medium business owner I've heard ring this show understands the importance of looking after their staff.Many of them during those particularly difficult times in lockdown were more worried about their employees then they were about themselves.Every single one of them cares about their staff, and I find it hard to believe, given the attitudes I've heard, that they'd be paying them any worse than they thought they could get away with. They are investing in their people

A new report puts the cost of having to fix defects in new house builds at $2.5b each year. The figure's been hammered out by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in an analysis of direct costs to the construction industry of quality defects, as well as the indirect effects on productivity and housing supply. So when and were do the defects occur?

The principal economist at the NZIER says dairy sales have gained strength despite the Covid pandemic but the industry could be undermined by tough government policy around the ETS, the Zero Carbon Bill and freshwater reforms.

Boosting benefits will also boost the economy, says a new report from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

Research from NZIER and Xero suggests billions in productivity gains could be achieved by accelerating businesses' move to the cloud. Listen to this Cloud Talk with Craig Hudson, Managing Director of Xero to learn more.

In this episode I start by looking at the success of New Zealand's four week lockdown as the number of new cases continues to drop. During this segment I highlight the increasingly vocal tensions of the business community asking for a little certainty on what a move to Level 3 or Level 2 will mean specifically for them and their ability to resume some form of operations. Ramping up our contact tracing capability will be critical to getting back a little normalcy but it is important that we maintain effective checks on what will potentially amount to the mass collection of population data. I'm then joined by John Ballingall - an economist with Sense. Partners based here in Wellington.  John has worked on some of the biggest policy and business issues in New Zealand over the past two decades, as an economist and Deputy Chief Executive at NZIER (a economic consultancy) and as Deputy Director of the Economic Division of New Zealand's foreign ministry.We talk about the local and global economy, where are the glimmers of hope - the sources of optimism - in amongst all the hurt and pain, how will firms actually build resilience into their supply chains, and then we look to the future and how COVID-19 might present an opportunity to shape globalisation to address the ills and become more people-centred. Guest bios: John Ballingall: http://www.sense.partners/bio-john-ballingall For comments and feedback: Email: thefridaydownload@nzuscouncil.org Facebook: facebook.com/nzuscouncil Twitter: twitter.com/nzuscouncil Website: nzuscouncil.org Podcast website: www.fridaydownload.nz Links mentioned during the podcast:   Clip of Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters talking to Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB: https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/winston-peters-on-balancing-the-health-of-kiwis-while-saving-the-economy/ WTO trade report: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm Sense. Partners daily economic tracker: http://www.sense.partners/views/2020/4/7/8zy6u29qem0ph2a2334ous6sbgk2lj Credits – opening and closing music:Happy Boy Theme Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/About the NZUS CouncilEstablished in 2001, we are a non-partisan, non-government organisation focused on advancing New Zealand's interests in a stronger bilateral relationship with the United States. 

Midwives aren't getting paid for 20 per cent of the work they do - and a $50 million annual injection into the sector is needed urgently.That's from a report out this morning into sustainable midwifery, and the outcome finds the profession is anything but.It reveals most midwives are working more than 40 hours a week, looking after 40 to 45 women. Report co-author and NZIER deputy chief executive Todd Krieble joined Kate Hawkesby to discuss what is needed to revolutionise the industry. LISTEN ABOVE 

An economist says the focus should be on high value tourism, not just numbers.Results out today from Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport are expected to take the pulse of the tourism industry.NZIER principal economist, Christina Leung told Andrew Dickens it seems tourism has already peaked, with fewer business and holiday visitors, especially from China.However, she says spending is holding up, particularly in the central North Island and Otago.“The results highlight the need to move towards high value tourism, rather than just clipping the ticket.“The number of tourists from China is reducing and there's a bit of easing across other countries. There is a serious risk of a downturn the tourism sector.”LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW ABOVE

When seeking financial advice? What should you know before you start shopping around for an adviser to work with? Some of it comes down firstly to you: What's your expectation/what outcome would you like to get after an interaction with a financial adviser? Are you keen to get your 'hands dirty' also or do you want to allow that adviser all or some of the decision making in relation to your portfolio? Some of us will never use an adviser and that's totally fine. Many who do use and pay (either directly or indirectly) for this are actually paying for something that may not make a meaningful difference on the return on a portfolio. Others, more likely the newbie or self-directed investor, save on costs but are they missing out on something important? If using a financial adviser and an investment adviser specifically, is something you're going to do, then it pays to do a bit of groundwork first in order to understand what makes them tick. On the topic of adviser regulation, unfortunately, it's the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff. Real change will be ushered in by a new breed of adviser armed with new technology and the aim: Provide a higher standard of qualified advice that you'd expect from a reputable firm, but with the personalised touch of someone you have a real relationship with. Essential reading for this episode: https://www.myfiduciary.com/fiduciary-perspectives.html Aaron Drew joins us today for the last part in a broad discussion on this theme of ‘conflict of interest’ Aaron is an experienced investment professional and consultant. He is a Principal at MyFiduciary and Fi360 Pacific and provides investment support to a range of Adviser groups and Investors. Aaron serves as a Trustee for the Fairground Foundation and the Investment Committees for Foundation North, Metis Research Group and Taupo Moana Investments. He is also an Associate of the NZIER and leads the Sovereign Funds research program at the New Zealand Institute of Pacific Research. Aaron is an economist and his experience includes seven years for the New Zealand Superannuation Fund where he was a member of its Investment Committee and helped establish its passive Reference Portfolio governance benchmark, dynamic asset allocation strategy, and thematic investment strategies. He’s worked as a principal economist for the NZIER, at the OECD in Paris, as a consultant for the IMF. In addition to that he’s also worked as a CIO for the Stewart Group, and at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand where he led the research division as was a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. This is going to be an interesting discussion and a must listen if you want to learn more about potential conflicts of interests in the world of investing. Note that this is a two-part recording, be sure to subscribe to the show next week. To get a hold of Aaron Drew please check out https://www.myfiduciary.com/ NZ Everyday Investor Podcast: https://www.facebook.com/NZ-Everyday-Investor-338969376637717/ We’re keeping it real on NZ Everyday investor – we’re not journalists and this isn’t an interview – it’s a discussion, hosted by someone who’s genuinely into this sort of thing. If you like what we do, remember to subscribe to our show and share it with others – we’d really appreciate it! Do you know what else would make us rather pleased with ourselves? Write a review on facebook too! Where to find Darcy Ungaro: Ungaro &Co (registered) financial advisers https://www.ungaro.co.nz Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/UFinServ/?ref=bookmarks Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ungaro.co.nz/ Help support the mission of our show on Patreon by contributing here: NZ Everyday Investor is on a mission to increase financial literacy and make investing more accessible for the everyday person!

When seeking financial advice? What should you know before you start shopping around for an adviser to work with? Some of it comes down firstly to you: What's your expectation/what outcome would you like to get after an interaction with a financial adviser? Are you keen to get your 'hands dirty' also or do you want to allow that adviser all or some of the decision making in relation to your portfolio? Some of us will never use an adviser and that's totally fine. Many who do use and pay (either directly or indirectly) for this are actually paying for something that may not make a meaningful difference on the return on a portfolio. Others, more likely the newbie or self-directed investor, save on costs but are they missing out on something important? If using a financial adviser and an investment adviser specifically, is something you're going to do, then it pays to do a bit of groundwork first in order to understand what makes them tick. On the topic of adviser remuneration, most advisers will charge a fee for their service but how this fee is calculated varies greatly. Sometimes there may even be revenue coming from both sides (the 'supplier' and the consumer). Other types of advisers will receive a commission from the supplier, specifically mortgage and insurance advisers. There's power in compounding returns, but it would be great if you could also avoid conflicted returns. Essential reading for this episode: https://www.myfiduciary.com/fiduciary-perspectives.html If you’ve decided to get some advice around being a bit more active in your investment decisions, you’re likely going to pay a fee for it somehow – whether that be to an investment adviser, or to a fund manager, how can you discern what is fair and reasonable for this service? Aaron Drew joins us today for a broad discussion on this theme of ‘conflict of interest’ Aaron is an experienced investment professional and consultant. He is a Principal at MyFiduciary and Fi360 Pacific and provides investment support to a range of Adviser groups and Investors. Aaron serves as a Trustee for the Fairground Foundation and the Investment Committees for Foundation North, Metis Research Group and Taupo Moana Investments. He is also an Associate of the NZIER and leads the Sovereign Funds research program at the New Zealand Institute of Pacific Research. Aaron is an economist and his experience includes seven years for the New Zealand Superannuation Fund where he was a member of its Investment Committee and helped establish its passive Reference Portfolio governance benchmark, dynamic asset allocation strategy, and thematic investment strategies. He’s worked as a principal economist for the NZIER, at the OECD in Paris, as a consultant for the IMF. In addition to that he’s also worked as a CIO for the Stewart Group, and at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand where he led the research division as was a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. This is going to be an interesting discussion and a must listen if you want to learn more about potential conflicts of interests in the world of investing. Note that this is a two-part recording, be sure to subscribe to the show next week. To get a hold of Aaron Drew please check out https://www.myfiduciary.com/ NZ Everyday Investor Podcast: https://www.facebook.com/NZ-Everyday-Investor-338969376637717/ We’re keeping it real on NZ Everyday investor – we’re not journalists and this isn’t an interview – it’s a discussion, hosted by someone who’s genuinely into this sort of thing. If you like what we do, remember to subscribe to our show and share it with others – we’d really appreciate it! Do you know what else would make us rather pleased with ourselves? Write a review on facebook too! Where to find Darcy Ungaro: Ungaro &Co (registered) financial advisers https://www.ungaro.co.nz Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/UFinServ/?ref=bookmarks Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ungaro.co.nz/ Help support the mission of our show on Patreon by contributing here: NZ Everyday Investor is on a mission to increase financial literacy and make investing more accessible for the everyday person!

Claims the government's ban on future oil and gas exploration will cost the country up t0 $30 billion are being described as unsurprising.The Institute of Economic Research has released its findings on research commissioned by Petroleum and Production Exploration New Zealand.It says the Government's ban could cost the economy up to $30 by 2050.NZIER chief executive Laurence Kubiak told Kate Hawkesby the actual result will be driven by policy decisions over the next 30 years."I don't think it would come as a surprise to anyone that banning exploration would come at a cost."

So business confidence continues to fall with the latest result this week from the NZIER the lowest our business confidence has been in five years.Now I could repeat the editorial I wrote a month ago that said why should businesses feel worried but that was a month ago.Since then we’ve had survey after survey saying the same thing. It may be criticised as a self-fulfilling prophecy but the problem is it’s actually fulfilling itself. The business community are not sure what will happen and so bit by bit they’re deciding not to take too many risks over the next few years.The problem is not necessarily the government’s budget or even the Finance Minister who I feel is playing a very straight bat. I trust him to keep a tight rein on the fiscal budget. The problem is those beneath him who’ve been throwing their grand statements around without realising that their words now carry power.It’s easy to highlight Shane Jones with his attacks on Fonterra and Air New Zealand. If that’s how he feels about those businesses what is he saying about other businesses in the cabinet room.Then there’s the Employment Minister Ian Lees Galloway, who cuts a dashing figure, but spouts ideology left right and centre. No wonder businesses are worried about what their wage bill might be. With nurses holding out for more and teachers and principals now asking for a 16 per cent wage rise, then of course private employers are worried that a relative wage pressure is about to hit their bottom line.And then there’s the Prime Minister who it appears unilaterally closed down the oil exploration sector without consultation. Other sectors will also be worrying about what could happen. Will she clamp down on us without asking first?Of course, these are all ideological stances, and that word ideology is getting a bad rap and spat out as an insult. This is ridiculous because all policies and ideas have an ideology behind them no matter what side of the political fence they come from.The trick is to line up the ideologies with a logic and practicality so that they become real measures that make sense to the country as a whole. Grant Robertson kind of gets that. He often talks of an evolution not a revolution. Small practical steps towards a big goal. But beneath him are a load of hotheads that shoot their mouth off too often.It’s important that business stays on side with the government and vice versa. The grown-ups in the government need to get the kids to shut up until they get their grand ideas in sync with the realities of today.

NZIER economist Christina Leung says the services sector is the most confident despite slowing demand. Read more ($): https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/business-confidence-steady-june-quarter-construction-stutters-b-204823