Podcasts about Implied volatility

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500 Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are? Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high Mentioned in this Episode Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab1  ECON PI http://econpi.com/index.php  Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT  Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt  Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag  Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 

Tom White brings the technical analysis, fundamental history and an example options trade in Supermicro (SMCI). Looking at a 3-year chart, Tom says the longer-term performance provides important context to current share price levels. In terms of an example trade, Tom utilizes a call butterfly strategy with a bullish stance in SMCI ahead of its late April earnings event.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Derek Moore goes through last week's pullback and Nvidia's post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn't made a new high since December  but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down.    Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total world stock market ETFs Forward PE levels drop as markets retrace while earnings estimates rise US Effective Tariff Rate impact of various potential tariffs according to Goldman Sachs AAII survey goes full bear but is it justified compared to prior periods? Broadcom earnings and what the implied volatility suggests a 1 standard deviation move is Did the options market get the post earnings Nvidia move correct?   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   

Mark is joined by guest Matt Amberson from ORATS, who discusses recent market activity, including the significant rise in the VIX and its implications. They explore the dynamics of volatility trading and review notable trades, such as a large-scale multi-leg options strategy termed the 'super stupid.' Additionally, Matt introduces ORATS' recent research reports on the impact of macro events on implied volatility. The episode concludes with a preview of next week's volatility prediction segment, the crystal ball.   01:04 Welcome to Volatility Views 01:34 Public.com: The Best Platform for Options Trading 02:13 Deep Dive into Volatility 05:00 Market Overview and Recent Trends 13:48 Special Report: Impact of Macro Events on Implied Volatility 34:00 Introducing the New VIX Indicator 34:40 VIX Options Activity Breakdown 36:34 Super Stupid Trades and Their Impact 40:28 Inverse Volatility Products Analysis 51:53 Earnings Volatility Insights 55:50 Crystal Ball Predictions and Wrap-Up  

Mark is joined by guest Matt Amberson from ORATS, who discusses recent market activity, including the significant rise in the VIX and its implications. They explore the dynamics of volatility trading and review notable trades, such as a large-scale multi-leg options strategy termed the 'super stupid.' Additionally, Matt introduces ORATS' recent research reports on the impact of macro events on implied volatility. The episode concludes with a preview of next week's volatility prediction segment, the crystal ball. 00:00 Introduction to Options Insider Radio Network 01:04 Welcome to Volatility Views 01:34 Public.com: The Best Platform for Options Trading 02:13 Deep Dive into Volatility 05:00 Market Overview and Recent Trends 13:48 Special Report: Impact of Macro Events on Implied Volatility 34:00 Introducing the New VIX Indicator 34:40 VIX Options Activity Breakdown 36:34 Super Stupid Trades and Their Impact 40:28 Inverse Volatility Products Analysis 51:53 Earnings Volatility Insights 55:50 Crystal Ball Predictions and Wrap-Up  

Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be up or down. Finally, most people look at Real Inflation adjusted GDP, but Nominal GDP growth may be correlated to the 10-year yield and what that means if we go back to pre-GFC nominal growth rates. All this and more.    What is Nominal GDP Growth Rate? What is Real GDP growth? The US Dollar index and whether we are out of the zone of significance yet? Inflation in services remains sticky Why interest rates staying higher isn't necessarily a problem for the stock market Quantifying sensitivity of the S&P 500 Index to small changes in the forward PE multiple 1994-95 vs 2024-25 update around treasury yields, S&P 500 returns Alibaba and Arista earnings this week and their option implied moves  How to calculate expected move around earnings based on implied volatility levels     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Kevin Davitt tackles dispersion and options market strategies. He charts NDX implied volatility vs realized volatility and gives his outlook on the rest of the year. He puts recent large market moves in perspective, contrasting close-to-open gaps and close-to-close moves in the Nasdaq-100.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Derek Moore previews Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft earnings by looking at the implied moves around earning by the options market. Plus, Bloomberg comes out with a new inflation gauge called The Bacon Egg & Cheese Sandwich index. Later, Derek talks about a new study which shows the percentage of time in recessions by decades. Oh, and reacting to a headline “hedging is for suckers” and why it's wrong.   Zero Hedge article headline “Downside Protection is for Suckers” reaction Percent of time in recessions Bacon Egg & Cheese Inflation Index from Bloomberg Implied volatility on major companies reporting earnings TSLA, MSFT, and AAPL How to easily calculate the options market implied 1-day 1-standard deviation move Why implied volatility moves higher pre-earnings Cost of a options Straddle trade around earnings Risks of a straddle trade both buying and selling the straddle     Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com  

Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Mike Puck to talk markets including how people seem to think making money in Bitcoin is too easy and what that means. Plus, why the S&P 500 Index concentration may not be as big of a deal when looking at how the index changes. Comparing the top 10 market weighted stocks in 1997 to today. Later they discuss value vs growth performance, the dollar index, interest rates, and look at the implied volatility of Netflix options before earnings. Finally, they talk about how what seems obvious to all the CNBC talking head guests may not be the case.   Concentration in the top stocks within the S&P 500 Index Comparing the top weighted companies today vs 1997 in the S&P 500 Index How today its all tech vs 30 years ago Why owning the S&P 500 Index is more active than you think Additions to the S&P 500 Index in 2024 and their performance Implied volatility in Netflix options pre-earnings Calculating the implied move around earnings based on implied volatility Looking at the ATM long straddle before earnings including the risk Dollar index and EPS in the S&P correlation Bitcoin believers are starting to think its too easy to make money Bitcoin maximalists have been rewarded, and Derek is still a skeptic Value vs Growth and why Value is a tough sell to money managers   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Mat Cashman, Principal of Investor Education at the Options Clearing House, joins IBKR's Jeff Praissman to discuss the often-misunderstood inverse relationship Gamma and Implied Volatility have.   Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material is from The Options Industry Council (OIC) and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or The Options Industry Council (OIC) and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Disclosure: Options Trading Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Multiple leg strategies, including spreads, will incur multiple commission charges. For more information read the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) or visit ibkr.com/occ

Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?    Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data MicroStrategy implied volatility S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500 Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move? Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers   Mentioned in this Episode   JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

Dmitry Pargamanik and Will McBride, the cofounders of Market Chameleon, join IBKR's Jeff Praissman to discuss the effect that implied volatility can have on option quotes and how traders can use this to their advantage.

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:33) Path of Interest Rates (08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone? (10:46) Overdone Currency Moves (12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility (16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging (20:29) Election Probability Distribution (27:17) Ledger Ad (28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates (31:10) Inflation Resurgence (33:18) Global Coordination (36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade (39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency (47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy (52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market (55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Derek Moore is back to break down Nvidia's beat, but not beat (whisper number), their growth year over year, their profit margins, and percent they beat on the top and bottom line. Then, looking at the implied volatility and expected move post earnings in Nvidia and how to calculate it. Understanding why sometimes a long straddle option position before earnings makes money and other times it doesn't. Later, peeking in at the implied Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for the September meeting. Finally, “everyone” seems to be saying its time to buy longer maturity bonds. Is that view getting crowded and why will or won't long rates move lower because the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate.    Nvidia earning beat but misses the “whisper” number After hours trading reaction to Nvidia earnings Difference between Gross profit and Net profit Nvidia's massive profit margins compared to grocery stores Earning growth year over year Implied volatility pre-earnings to compute the implied expected stock move Why option premiums and volatility rise before earnings announcements How implied volatility gets sucked out of markets post earnings Long Straddles at the money before earnings characteristics and risks The Fed is expected to lower the front part of the interest rate curve What does that mean for the back half of the longer duration bond maturities? The spread between the 10-year treasury bond and the 30-year mortgage rate Hindenburg Research negative piece on Super Micro Computer SMCI     Mentioned in this Episode   Hindenburg negative research on Super Micro Computer https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/   Jay Powell & The “Good Ship Transitory” | Price Caps Proposed by Politicians | Huge Employment Revisions | US Dollar Breaking Down? https://open.spotify.com/episode/09SZBfu7OSlh5ygHONqY1s?si=SwTdDLMUQS67KHvCjNkZMA   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore is back to discuss the WSJ article comparing Nvidia to Cisco and Jim Cramer's response. Is Nvidia in a bubble?   Wall Street Journal Article on Cisco 2000 vs Nvidia 2024 Forward PE multiples then and now Cisco vs Nvidia Data showing bull markets often continue the second half of the year When markets are up 10% first half of the year what happens next? Don't give up on the bull market yet based on data? Implied Volatility spikes in France compared to Germany What does 100% Moneyness mean in options speak? Explaining option moneyness at different levels How does July stack up against other months of the year for S&P 500 returns? August and July market returns in Election years Inflation PCE cools while PCE Services less housing still elevated YoY Container shipping rates rising again to highest level since September 2022 French CAC 40 Market near 10% drawdown from highs   Mentioned in this Episode   WSJ article comparing Cisco in 2000 vs Nvidia in 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/nvidia-is-no-cisco-but-it-is-getting-expensive-1938fcc0   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Implied volatility is critical to our understanding and implementation of our covered call writing and put-selling trades. But, what about IV Rank and IV Percentile. This podcast will define and explain all IV terms and offer perspectives of when and where they have applications. The following links are mentioned at the end pf the podcast: Premium Membership: ⁠https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/membership/⁠ ----- Best Discounted Packages: 1. BCI Package, our Best and most Comprehensive Investment package: ⁠ https://thebluecollarinvestor.com/minimembership/bci-investor-program/⁠ 2. TCM Package - BCI Trade Management System: ⁠https://thebluecollarinvestor.com/minimembership/bci-trade-management-system/⁠ 3. CEO Package - Includes TMC Package: ⁠https://thebluecollarinvestor.com/minimembership/ceo-package/⁠ ------- SEE BCI COURSE & PRODUCTS : ⁠https://thebluecollarinvestor.com/store/⁠ FIND BCI ON AMAZON ⁠http://amzn.to/Nx2Zqk

Each time on Market Outlook John reviews the upcoming week in the markets and gives you his take by leveraging technical analysis and price action. By doing so, you can be more successful and smooth out your overall profits. We are thrilled to share this Market Outlook session with you all! Join us now - https://www.lockeinyoursuccess.com/market-outlook-weekly-webinars/ Become a Pro - https://www.lockeinyoursuccess.com/memberships/pro-membership/ ►00:00 - Market Analysis ►00:34 - Disclaimer ►01:28 - Welcome New Traders ►01:50 - 0DTE Shout Out ►02:18 - SPX (S&P 500) ►25:54 - Daily and Weekly Move ►29:49 - NDX (NASDAQ 100) ►31:41 - DJI (Dow Jones) ►32:39 - RUT (Russell 2000) ►35:43 - Implied Volatility ►42:13 - Outro!

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss Nvidia's beat on earnings, their march towards $2trillion market cap, and how as earnings forecasts rise, even though the stock has made new highs, forward PE ratios go lower. Then, they explore what the options market via implied volatility was forecasting for an Nvidia move post earnings. Later, they review a comparison between the S&P 500 Index annual return vs the EPS growth to see if there is any relationship. Hint, it's not too correlated even when they compare the current year market performance against the 1 year forward actual earnings. All that and more will be explained including some recommendations.   Nvida's stock is rising while its forward PE just got cheaper Nvidia's recent earnings beat including EPS growth, revenue growth, and gross and net margins What would it take for Nvida to overtake Microsoft as the largest company in the S&P 500? Implied move post earnings based on the implied volatility of the options market Price of the at the money long straddle on Nvidia the afternoon of earnings Regression analysis of S&P 500 Index annual return vs EPS growth Correlations between market returns and earnings growth Comparing correlations with same year market returns vs same year and 1 year forward EPS Markets are forward looking Probability of Nvidia reaching $3.06T in market cap in one year per options market       Mentioned in this Episode:     Where returns come from see start of page 23 in Semper Augustus group letter https://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/db64b928-53d6-43a9-a4d0-a9d2f69f76ba.pdf     Previous Week's Podcast:   Put & Call Implied Volatility Mismatch? | US Dollar vs S&P 500 Correlation | Sticky Inflation | Japan Recession | Explaining Why Stocks Go Up (or down)https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/put-call-implied-volatility-mismatch-us-dollar-vs-s/id1432836154?i=1000645873203     Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, follow up on last week's PE ration (useless?) discussion explaining how stocks go up or down based on earnings, multiples, and other factors. Then they delve into correlations between the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500 Index. Later, the surprising fact that as Japan's Nikkei Index makes 35-year all-time highs they are in a technical recession. Finally, more evidence shows that inflation may be stickier and some that it may not. As always, they'll have some recommendations!   Explaining how EPS earnings per share works How the PE can change due to earnings going up or the multiple going up How a stocks movement from one year to the next can be attributed to earnings and multiples How the correlation between the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500 Index has flipped of late Why a lower dollar helps large multinational companies earnings Congratulations, Japan is making all-time highs while in a technical recession What is a technical recession that everyone is now calling 2 quarters of negative GDP growth Car insurance premiums rose another 20% year over year…inflationary? How lagging price changes may continue to be sticky for inflation Looking at how OER Owners Equivalent Rent has been trending lower How higher rates may have put pricing pressure on rents How market returns and earnings growth aren't the same every year     Mentioned in this Episode:     Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2023 NYU Aswath Damodaran https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html   Previous Week's Podcast:   Is the Forward PE Useless?| S&P 500 Election Seasonality | Gen Z vs. Gen X Special https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-the-forward-pe-useless-s-p-500-election/id1432836154?i=1000644953963   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss the Fed and Powell press conference market reaction. Plus, they look at META and Apple option's implied volatilities did or didn't predict the post earnings moves. 1994-95 experience in Fed rates and bond yields compared to today. Later, they set the record straight on what NAV erosion is, why the Shiller PE may not be predictive of markets, low response rates to economic surveys, and correlation between CPI and shipping container rates.   Fed Meeting Powell press conference roiled markets for all of 1 day Who is right, the bond market or the stock market on rates? Typical moves in bond yields around fed meetings and outside of fed meetings The Fed Funds rate and the 10-year treasury bond yield aren't as related as you think Looking back at the 1994-95 Fed rate hiking and easing cycle META blows out earnings and adds the most market cap ever in one day Looking at META options implied volatility pre-earnings to see if it got it right Reviewing Apple's ATM straddle, implied volatility, and post earnings move Confusion around what the meaning of NAV erosion is Total return which includes dividends vs price return. Correlation between CPI year over year change and container shipping rates JOLTS Job Openings Less Turnover Survey response rates drop How economic surveys sample small amounts to gauge total economy Shiller PE CAPE Ratio and predictive power     Mentioned in this Episode:   1994-95 All Over Again in Markets? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306   BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2024 employment report https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf     Previous Week's Podcast:   What Option Volatility Means for Markets | Is the Market Too Dovish on Interest Rate Expectations? | Does the Fed Need an Economics Lesson? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-option-volatility-means-for-markets-is-the/id1432836154?i=1000642385904   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are it at once again where they analyze Tesla's implied volatility right before earnings vs what happened. Did the option's market misprice premiums? Also, in the episode they talk about Bitcoin's drop as a sell the news buy the rumor example while Derek argues that Bitcoin's volatility make it unusable as a currency to transact business. Later they dive into some data showing that when markets are up 20% the year before the election, election years historically have never been down and does that mean anything for 2024? Finally, they talk about China's selloff relative to US markets and how everyone thought emerging markets would be the thing in 2023.   Bitcoin in a bear market drawing down greater than 20% from pre-ETF launch high Bitcoin at least in the short term seems like people bought the rumor but are selling the news Can Bitcoin be a currency if it drops 20% within a month? What is an option's implied volatility mean vs an option's historical volatility Looking at the price of the at the money straddle on Tesla right before earnings How to figure out what the options market is pricing in for a 1 standard deviation move Post Tesla earnings did the markets accurately price in how much Tesla moved after earnings? 2023 was up > 20% so what does that mean for election year based on some data? Election year and the markets China's stock market gets a little rocky but no bearing on US markets? Emerging markets were picked at the beginning of 2023 to close the gap on US markets Emerging markets still underperforming the S&P 500 Index Explaining how companies earnings in S&P 500 Index are aggregated together not weighted Comparing Apple's earnings in a quarter to Starbucks and why the big 7 matter most right now Semiconductors weighting in the S&P 500 Index hits a high Semiconductors as the picks and shovels, bluejeans play for AI?     Mentioned in this Episode:   What Option Volatility Means for Markets | Is the Market Too Dovish on Interest Rate Expectations? | Does the Fed Need an Economics Lesson? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-option-volatility-means-for-markets-is-the/id1432836154?i=1000642385904   Hedging With Options Examples | Soft Landing? | US Congress Trading Returns | Is Good News or Bad News Good? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hedging-with-options-examples-soft-landing-us-congress/id1432836154?i=1000640844619   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies as SCT Capital Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his many findings from his recent research on commodity investing. Krishnan and Farley also discuss the weather, the continuing dispersion between interest rate volatility and equity market volatility, and if the bond market really is smarter than the stock market. Filmed on December 19, 2024. Today's interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Hari's Journey Into Commodities (10:10) Finding Upside Convexity In Commodity Options (17:35) Corn (21:41) Copper and Metals (22:53) Natural Gas Is Similar To The VIX (most Contango) (27:27) Seasonality (30:49) Commodity Stocks (34:08) Structural Bull Case For Commodities (38:57) What's Harder - Predicting Weather or Predicting The Stock Market? (41:22) Bread and Butter Volatility Trading (44:32) Views On VIX & Implied Volatility (50:17) Examples of Other "Disaster Trades" In The Volatility World (51:31) Rate Volatility Is Much Higher Than Equity Volatility - Why? (55:12) Is The Stock Market Smarter Than The Bond Market? (01:02:53) Reflexivity, Explained __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In the final installment of our miniseries dedicated to options trading, Erik explains the difference between Implied Volatility and IV Percentile, and why the former is important to understand. We also discuss the plans for moving the series over to Erik's YouTube channel, which will be streamed live every Tuesday at 7pm CST (start time updated). The first recording of the reboot can be found here!Check it out on YouTube to follow along with Erik's screen!Sponsors and FriendsOur podcast is sponsored by Sue Maki at Fairway Independent Mortgage (MLS# 206048). Licensed in 36 states, if you need anything mortgage-related, reach out to her at SPullen@fairwaymc.com or give her a call at (520) 977-7904. Tell her 2 Bulls sent you to get the best rates available!For anyone trading futures, check out Vantatrading.com. Founded by Mr. W Banks and Baba Yaga, they provide a ton of educational content with the focus of teaching aspiring traders how to build a repeatable, profitable process. You can find our exclusive affiliate link/discount code for Vanta ‘s subscription in our free discord server as well!If you are interested in signing up with TRADEPRO Academy, you can use our affiliate link here. We receive compensation for any purchases made when using this link, so it's a great way to support the show and learn at the same time! **Join our Discord for a link and code to save 10%**Fleri is hosting a month long sub to learn his process for the month of November, check it out here before he shuts it down!To contact us, you can email us directly at suggestions@financialineptitude.com Be sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, or Discord to get updated when new content is posted! If you enjoyed this week's guest, check out our directory for other amazing interviews we've done in the past!If you like our show, please let us know by rating and subscribing on your platform of choice!If you like our show and hate social media, then please tell all your friends!If you have no friends and hate social media and you just want to give us money for advertising to help you find more friends, then you can donate to support the show here!About the Panelists:Erik Smolinski:Erik is a lifelong investor and self-made millionaire looking to share how others can achieve the same. He is hoping to share his experience with active and veteran military members to expose them to opportunities.He came from a single parent low-income household, worked odd jobs as a kid, and began investing in high school. Erik wasn't going to attend college and planned to enlist in the Marines, but a mentor directed him to apply for a scholarship (which he earned). While he pursued his undergrad, he dug deeper into investing and trading - finding derivatives which he primarily trades. He completed over 6 years of active duty before transitioning to the reserves, earning an MBA during his last year. Erik then spread into real estate and angel investing as his means grew, to accelerate capital growth.Links: esInvests - YouTube ChannelFollow Erik on TwitterCompound Interest CalculatorPrevious Episodes:Miniseries CollectionAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Implied volatility is one of the more challenging topics for new traders to grasp, but understanding it will give you an edge in the market place when it comes to your options trading. In this video John talks about what IV really is and why it's important. What are you waiting for? Come join us! https://www.lockeinyoursuccess.com/memberships ►00:00 Introduction ►00:35 Explanation around IV ►02:13 Black-Scholes Model ►05:20 Model Variables & Guesses ►09:10 Options Butterfly Example ►15:15 Look at what IV is doing ►19:45 Outro John Locke has been working with options for 20+ years and has built himself up as a leader in the stock options trading industry. Having trained now hundreds of traders, his natural ability to teach complex topics with clarity and passion has made him invaluable to the trading community.

Derek Moore is back with ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli where they discuss whether higher real yields are an issue for markets and how this period seems similar to the 1990's. Then they dive into implied volatility using companies like Tesla TSLA and Nvidia NVDA as examples to explore how options markets express views on expected moves based on options prices. What are the drivers of volatility moving higher or lower. How earnings affect implied volatility and what typically happens after the announcement. They also have a side bar discussion comparing the debt of Tesla to Ford for no reason than that it's quite different. Finally, some recommendations.   What is implied volatility? How to calculate implied price moves using implied volatility Comparing the implied volatilities of NVDA Nvidia vs TSLA Tesla as examples How implied volatility often rises and falls with earnings. How option prices bake in expectations The rule of 16 and implied volatility Stories about implied volatility rising around major events. Debt of Tesla vs Ford What is enterprise value? What are real yields? Real yields vs nominal yields Are higher real yields a problem for markets? 10-year real yield rising Comparing real yields today vs the 1990's bull market in equities Why investors should want positive real yields. GameStop armchair analysts in the end weren't right about the company. Upcoming GameStop movies and whether sensationalizing this hurts investors. Did the Big Short Movie cause investors to always be trying to bet on the next big thing?     Mentioned in this Episode:   GameStop Short Squeeze by the Reddit Wall Street Bets Traders Explained https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-pie-chart/id1432836154?i=1000507187446   The Big Short Movie and Credit Default Swaps Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/6FG0xHkxfhSXEtbJbFbDF6   Margin Call Movie and Understanding Value at Risk https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp     Recession Predictions Still Wrong? | Synthetic Options | Unemployment Anomalies | Oil Prices Breakout https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/recession-predictions-still-wrong-synthetic-options/id1432836154?i=1000626691109   0 DTE Options No Problem? | Jay Powell's Wyoming Speech Points to More Interest Rate Hikes? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0-dte-options-no-problem-jay-powells-wyoming-speech/id1432836154?i=1000625845803     Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Mat Cashman Mat Cashman, Principal of Investor Education at the OCC joins IBKRs Senior Trading Education Specialist Jeff Praissman to discuss the concept of implied volatility and duration in pricing  time spreads. Contact Information: For more free options education from The Options Industry Council (OIC), an industry resource provided by OCC, visit OptionsEducation.org. Have an options-related question? Contact the OCC Investor Education team at options@theocc.com or via live chat on OptionsEducation.org. Connect with OIC Instructor, Mat Cashman. DISCLOSURE: OPTIONS (WITH MULTIPLE LEGS) Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. For information on the uses and risks of options, you can obtain a copy of the Options Clearing Corporation risk disclosure document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options by visiting ibkr.com/occ. Multiple leg strategies, including spreads, will incur multiple transaction costs.

Tom Sosnoff, founder and CEO of Tastylive, joins the "Investing With IBD" podcast for a wide-ranging discussion that covers his approach to trading, using options during earnings season, how to manage risk and much more. Plus, Sosnoff shares how he handled trades in Tesla and Netflix, both with earnings reports hot off the press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44n5rhj   - The equity market rallied continued apace yesterday, encouraged by a drop in treasury yields all along the curve and benign US PPI data. Earnings season kicks off in earnest today and gathers pace next week - can companies deliver after the aggressive expansion of multiples over the last three months? In FX, we note that in trade-weighted terms, the Euro is at all time high (nominal effective terms according to ECB measure). We also note the rising anticipation that the Bank of Japan may have to tweak policy at its meeting in two weeks. Commodities have also been rocked by developments, where today we focus on crude oil, copper and silver. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Will McBride and Dmitry Pargaminik, cofounders of Market Chameleon join IBKR's Senior Trading Education Specialist Jeff Praissman to discuss implied volatility and its effect on option pricing. Contact Information:  https://marketchameleon.com/ support@marketchameleon.com Note: Any performance figures mentioned in this podcast are as of the date of recording (June 5, 2023). DISCLOSURE: OPTIONS TRADING Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Multiple leg strategies, including spreads, will incur multiple commission charges. For more information read the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options” also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) or visit ibkr.com/occ

As premium sellers, we much prefer higher implied volatility for new option strategies. But much of the time in the market, volatility is on the lower end, so we need to have alternative strategies available to us for these environments, too. This is where a strategy like a Diagonal Spread is such a good strategy to have in your repertoire.

As premium sellers, we much prefer higher implied volatility for new option strategies. But much of the time in the market, volatility is on the lower end, so we need to have alternative strategies available to us for these environments, too. This is where a strategy like a Diagonal Spread is such a good strategy to have in your repertoire.

With a big jump of 10% in the 5-day change in Implied Volatility and earnings the day before expiration, ROKU is Tony's trade for today.

Today Errol and Dr. Jim bring it back to the basics of Implied Volatility and IV rank. With the FOMC announcement it's important to take into account how implied volatility affects options prices, so that you can adjust expectations.

Today Errol and Dr. Jim bring it back to the basics of Implied Volatility and IV rank. With the FOMC announcement it's important to take into account how implied volatility affects options prices, so that you can adjust expectations.

Anton discusses how you can know a product's risk by using what you already know about a different product you already trade along with some quick math that is afforded to us by the efficiency of today's pricing and fair markets.

Anton discusses how you can know a product's risk by using what you already know about a different product you already trade along with some quick math that is afforded to us by the efficiency of today's pricing and fair markets.

Tune in to learn all about implied volatility, and how options prices drive the standard deviation range that we can solve for using the Black-Scholes Model.They also discuss trading high vs low IV environments, per-strike IV, volatility smirks and smiles, and much more!

Tune in to learn all about implied volatility, and how options prices drive the standard deviation range that we can solve for using the Black-Scholes Model.They also discuss trading high vs low IV environments, per-strike IV, volatility smirks and smiles, and much more!

Anton from the tastytrade Research Team walks through the difference between defensive management and offensive management tactics. How will we manage differently based on the favor of the move in the market and its effect on our positions?

Anton from the tastytrade Research Team walks through the difference between defensive management and offensive management tactics. How will we manage differently based on the favor of the move in the market and its effect on our positions?