Podcasts about aaii

Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says the market has been in an oversold rally and is currently correcting as it comes out of that. He sees deteriorating breadth but still thinks this could be what he called "a healthy correction." McMillan says if the Standard & Poor's 500 can't hold the 5400 level, he would expect it to drop to 5000, a move big enough to put the stock market into bear market territory, a decline of 20 percent from market peaks in February. Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services, returns to the show to discuss updates to "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success,” and discusses the trend of investors trading some potential returns for more certainty, using annuities and reverse mortgages to secure income. Plus Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products for the American Association of Individual Investors — who created AAII's growth investing strategy — talks growth investing amid declining growth in the Money Life Market Call.

March 17, 2025 | Season 5 | Episode 7Markets are navigating turbulent waters as we digest the first 50 days of the Trump administration's second term. The striking contrast between equity volatility and bond market stability raises profound questions about where we're truly headed. While the S&P 500 and tech darlings experience significant drawdowns, the 10-year Treasury yield holds remarkably steady around 4.3% - suggesting that bond investors aren't forecasting economic catastrophe despite the headlines.What makes this moment particularly fascinating is the extreme bearish sentiment gripping individual investors. A stunning 60% of respondents in the latest AAII survey report feeling bearish - approaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Historically, such pessimism has preceded average market gains of 13.6% over the following year, potentially signaling a contrarian buying opportunity for those willing to look beyond the turbulence.The administration's focus on government reform follows a historical pattern seen throughout American history - from Jefferson's "wise and frugal government" to Reagan's declaration that "government is the problem." While the scale may differ, these efforts to reshape the federal workforce echo similar initiatives from previous administrations, with mixed results historically.For investors seeking opportunity amid uncertainty, the Magnificent Seven stocks present an intriguing case study. After contributing over half of 2023's market gains, they've declined an average of 15% this year. Yet unlike the fallen tech stars of 2000, these companies maintain dominant market positions with reasonable valuations - particularly Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Nvidia according to our analysis. With Amazon trading at a lower multiple than traditional retailers despite superior growth prospects, selective opportunities may exist for patient investors.As we navigate this complex environment, remember that investment decisions should be based on economic fundamentals rather than political preferences. The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy announcement will provide crucial insights into how monetary policy will adapt to evolving conditions. What's your strategy for positioning portfolios in this challenging but potentially rewarding landscape?** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure **To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-formFollow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

Derek Moore goes through last week's pullback and Nvidia's post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn't made a new high since December  but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down.    Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total world stock market ETFs Forward PE levels drop as markets retrace while earnings estimates rise US Effective Tariff Rate impact of various potential tariffs according to Goldman Sachs AAII survey goes full bear but is it justified compared to prior periods? Broadcom earnings and what the implied volatility suggests a 1 standard deviation move is Did the options market get the post earnings Nvidia move correct?   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   

The big things you need to know: First, there was very little change last week in the stats we monitor to track reporting season, aside from the continued drift lower in the bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to a little below $271. Second, uncertainty, policy, tariffs, and FX remained in focus in last week's earnings calls. Third, we continued to find evidence of weakening vibes in the latest updates from the AAII investor survey, the NFIB Small Business sentiment survey update, and EPFR funds flows.

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, 4Q24 earnings season looks solid on the stats so far. Second, bulls bounced back in the weekly AAII survey last week, as US equity flows stabilized.

The big things you need to know: First, the initial batch of 4Q24 earnings call commentary, which is mostly from Financials, highlights the optimism and uncertainty that are both embedded in the current outlook for stocks. Second, investor sentiment on the AAII survey continued to slip last week despite stabilization in the S&P 500 itself. Third, we continue to see some signs of mild rotation affecting US equity funds flows where we continue to see a loss of momentum. At the same time, we are seeing improvement in flows to bond funds, global equity funds, and several categories of non-US equity funds.

Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group,  says investors who are worried about the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates as much as previously expected are missing the idea that it's a sign of a solid backdrop for economic growth. She notes that the market and investors "crave the sugar high from more policy accommodations," and are overlooking the potential for the market to move forward in 2025. "We're not going to put up the same kind of returns we did in the last two years," Agati says, "but I think the market can grow at a pace that aligns with earnings growth;" she says earnings could grow at a pace of 10 to 15 percent year over year. Financial adviser Harmon Kong, discusses his new book, "Values Over Valuables: Daring to Live the Life Money Can't Buy" and — speaking of what money can't buy — Melissa Stephenson discusses a Solitaire Bliss study which showed that many Americans are unable to afford travel and time off, making finances a big part of why many Americans will celebrate the holidays alone this year. Plus, Cynthia McLaughlin, investment editor at AAII — lead editor at VMQ Stocks — talks about value, momentum and quality investing in the Money Life Market Call.

Paul mentions his upcoming presentation to the ⁠⁠L.A. Chapter of AAII⁠⁠ on November 16, 2024    10:30 to noon. Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls join Paul to answer your questions.  Paul opens the podcast with a brief introduction of the team and notes how thankful he is for their commitment to helping others. Paul mentions the huge moves small cap value funds made on November 6.  He follows that with a comparison of the 5 year returns of AVUV and  3 Vanguard small cap value funds (VBR, VIOV and VTWV).  AVUV compound rate of returns were 3 plus percent higher than the Vanguard funds.  Paul's questions:  What caused the higher returns and are they likely to be similar in the future? Chris responds with a lengthy discussion of the systematic approach that AVUV uses and Paul reads what AVUV says about their systematic approach. Chris compares the DFA small cap value fund (DFSV) with AVUV.  Chris also talks about a relative ranking he wants add to his Best In Class recommendations next year. Chris discusses the quality factor of AVUV vs. funds that build their small cap value portfolio using the Russell 2000 Small Cap Value Index.  He introduced a new term: rich minus weak ratio.Paul and Chris discuss the question:  Is AVUV and actively managed fund? Question:  JL Collins recommends VTI (Total Market Index) and Warren Buffett recommends VOO (S&P 500).  Which do we recommend?  Chris notes the important differences between VTI and AVUS and suggests a likely extra .5% return from AVUS. For those who want to own only total market funds, the group discusses the possibilities of replacing both VIT(U.S. Total Market)  and  VXUS (International Total Market) with total market indexes that favor slightly smaller companies with a slightly more value tilt. Paul references Ben Carlson's article about, ⁠⁠“Some Things I Don't Believe About Investing.”⁠⁠  Chris, Daryl and Paul weigh in on things they don't believe about investing.Chris ends with some important comments about how we are likely helping investors. Watch video here.

On November 16, 2024 Paul will speak to the L.A. Chapter of AAII via a Zoom presentation.  Here is the link:   2 Funds to Own Forever, and How to Invest in Small CapsIn this podcast Paul addresses 4 major considerations when selecting a small cap value ETF.  His discussion compares the returns, along with 4 major factors, for AVUV, VBR, VB,, VIOV, DFSVX and DFSV.Is gold worthy of a place in our portfolios?  Probably not but Paul talks about his gold position and why bonds are likely a lot better.He also discusses the important decision to choose buy and hold over market timing.  He references the following article from Truth Teller Ben Carlson: Don't Take Financial Advice From Hedge Fund Managers

In today's episode, Tyler breaks down today's action-packed market day, including the latest earnings reports, economic data, and the market's reaction to this data. Despite a midday rally, the markets finished closer to the lows of the day, influenced by significant losses from AMD and SMCI. We'll also discuss shifts in sentiment indexes like the Fear and Greed Index and AAII, and how we can use current pullbacks as buying opportunities. Tune into today's podcast to learn more

Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says that the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve's rate cycle starts showing up, it will goose the economy and the stock market, and with the worst of the post-Covid struggles behind us, the "soft landing" most experts forecast is actually what we're experiencing now, and that better times — and continued strong corporate earnings — are ahead, without a big correction or downturn in the interim. Mian isn't the only one expressing bullish sentiment, as Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal checks in with the details of the latest AAII investor sentiment survey, which has shown particularly high levels of bullish sentiment for about two months now, but who notes that the market typically delivers unimpressive gains when emotions are running high. David Trainer of New Constructs re-affirms the past selection of Affirm Holdings in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent gains of about 70 percent have simply positioned it to take another big fall, as he believes investors have bought the hype and ignored the reality of the company's struggles to deliver real profits. Plus, Money Life introduces its latest sponsor, Monetary Metals; Saad Zein, chief portfolio officer for Monetary Metals, discusses how the company enables investors to earn interest on their gold and silver holdings — paid in precious metals — and how generatking that income changes what many people consider the biggest weakness and turn-off to putting money into silver and gold.

On July 25, 2024 Paul and Chris made a presentation to the Puget Sound AAII.  Paul spoke to the latest research on small cap value and Chris spoke to the latest research on his 2 Funds for Life Portfolio.  Following the presentation  they answered questions from the guests. Q:  What advice do you give on conversion of regular IRAs to Roth IRAs?Q:  What investments do you recommend to offset large losses in the equity markets?Q:  Why do you recommend AVUS over VOO, or other S&P 500 funds?  In Chris' answer he recommends listeners read his AAII article on ETF Selection.  Q:  Why don't you recommend Long Term Treasury Bond fund?  Vanguard Long Term Treasury VGLTQ: Do you recommend a pension and/or Social Security  be considered the equivalent of a bond fund?Q:  Can you compare RSP (an equal weighted S&P 500 Fund) vs. SPY? Watch the full video here.

Three big things you need to know: First, earnings season has been fine so far, and what we've read has kept us in the “tired goldilocks” camp. Second, we run through the latest updates for the indicators we're monitoring in the rotation trade. We are mindful of headfakes, but think the trade may still have some room to run in the short term. We also still think whether a durable multi-year leadership transition is underway remains to be seen. Third, individual investor sentiment took a big hit last week per the AAII survey, while US equity flows have remained strong, keeping us on guard for an end to the current pullback.

The following questions were generated during a presentation Paul made to the Orange County and New York City AAII Chapters. 1. How do we go about finding someone (money manager) who follows your portfolio recommendations?  Plus what is a reasonable fee to pay for advisory services?  In the answer I do mention David Sterman. link: https://huguenotfinancialplanning.com/and two videos by Rob Berger: 5 Hidden Costs of Fee-Only Advisors and 5 Key Questions to Ask Your Investment Advisor 2.  How can I decide whether to go from 50/50 stocks and bonds to 70/30?  I suggest looking at table B1 and B9.  Include links 3. What bond durations do you recommend? 4.  What are the ETFs that you recommend for each of the equity asset classes you list? 5.  Can I share your presentation with my children?  Here is a presentation that might be good for a young person. 6.  How do I find a good money manager and what questions should I ask?  Here is a link to our free book, “Get Smart or Get Screwed:  How to Select the Best and Get the Most Out of Your Financial Advisor.”   7.  How do I get access to all of your charts and tables?  Here is lhe link to Boot Camp where you can have access to all the tables. 8.  What is your view of small cap value returns over the coming decades?  In my answer I mention Ben Carlson's article on randomness of  historical returns. And here is the new graph that Daryl Bahls proceeded to see the returns of a couple of portfolios over the same periods as Ben addressed. 

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, expects the market to start a new leg up and rally, but he notes that it has to go through a shake up and get to where rate cuts start before that uptick starts in earnest. Ladner notes he is "a whole lot more confident about the next six months than the next six weeks," noting that current conditions — with steady or falling interest rates and growth in earnings — "doesn't translate into bad markets." While those conditions don't always portend bull markets, those conditions do tend to drive markets higher. Jeffrey DeMaso, editor at The Independent Vanguard Adviser, discusses Vanguard PRIMECAP and PRIMECAP Core, two classic growth funds that were closed to new investors for 20 and 15 years respectively; Vanguard just re-opened the funds and DeMaso discusses who they are right for. Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the site's latest Emergency Savings Report, which showed that nearly 60 percent of Americans are uncomfortable with their level of emergency savings. Plus, in the Market Call, Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products at AAII talks about buying growth stocks now.

On May 18, 2024 Chris Pedersen made a presentation to the Houston Chapter of AAII.   At the end of the presentation Chris answered over 20 questions.  Those questions are on this podcast.  Here are the question topics: 1. Portfolio expectations compared to S&P 500?2.  How would adding small cap value (SCV) help a retiree?3.  How important is asset class location using 2 Funds for Life?4.  Would a do it yourself target date portfolio be better than buying a target date fund?5.  How do you expect interest rates to impact equity?6.  How different are the Total Market Fund expected returns from the S&P 500?7.  What are drawbacks by investing in SCV?8.  What steps should we take to manage emotional risk?9.  What is your opinion about combining TIPs with equities?10.  Should you increase your equity holdings as the get older?11.  Please comment of Christine Benz's Bucket Portfolio?12.. What SCV funds do you recommend?13.  Are there other target date funds you recommend besides Vanguard?14.  At age 60 what kind of return should I expect over the rest of my life?15.  Do you recommend nudge  withdrawals over withdrawals from the whole portfolio?16.  Why would more profitable small cap value funds do better than portfolios of less profitable companies?17.  Do you recommend VT, the Vanguard Worldwide equity fund? Inside the Investment Mind of Chris Pedersen with host Charles Rotblut.  Charles is  the editor of the AAII Journal, and a vice president and Chartered Financial Analyst at AAII Q1:  What is the best way to get big positions in cash invested?  All at once or dollar cost average over time? Q2:  How should target date fund investors choose the best date for their situation? Q3:What are the pros and cons of backtesting historical performance? Q4:  Why did you choose the drawings in your book “2 Funds for Life?”

The big things you need to know: First, Small Caps are retesting their relative low vs. Large Caps once again, as Fed rate cut optimism has faded once again. We remain neutral Small vs. Large for now. Second, investor sentiment has almost returned to the highs in place to start the year (as well as the summer of 2023) on the AAII survey, reinforcing our neutral stance on the broader US equity market for now. Third, our S&P 500 valuation model continues to suggest that the broader US equity market is fairly valued, with some modest downside risk if current inflation, interest rate, and Fed assumptions end up being too rosy. For a material move higher in the market by year-end to be justified on the math, we think investors will need to start focusing on the outlook for 2025, where visibility still seems a bit limited.

The big things you need to know: First, reporting season has ended up looking just fine on the stats, with one twist at the end. Second, we update our rundown of key themes on earnings calls. Third, net bulls on the AAII survey bounced back last week as 10-year yields decoupled from their 2023 spike, hopes for Fed cuts returned, and flows to US equity funds improved.

Join Paul and Chris for this podcast/video they recorded. During the conversation Paul  mentions Chris' free copy of  “2 Funds for Life”  and a fascinating interview with Professor Scott Cederburg on Rational Reminder.  Cederburg is an advocate for a lifetime portfolio of all equities.  The following are the topics and questions they discussed:   What does an investor do if a small cap value fund is not available in their 401(K)?  Does a small cap blend fund, that is available, have the same impact as small cap value? How do you choose between investing in a higher expense ratio ETF (say Avantis) compared to investing in a low expense ratio small cap value index fund?  Would the decision be as simple as going with the lower expense ratio fund?   How do taxes impact your recommendations whether the asset class is held in taxable or tax advantaged accounts?  Specifically, the S&P 500 fund that has little to no annual taxes vs small cap value which is less tax efficient. Are you tempted to invest in individual stocks or actively managed funds?   Since small cap value funds can have long periods of underperformance,  does that suggest  those approaching retirement should avoid small cap value funds? How did you react to the March 2020 Market Meltdown and other past major market declines?   Did you try to take advantage of the declines as a buying opportunity? What about combining 25% each small cap value and S&P 500 fund with  50%  target date fund?   What's the best way to move from your present holdings to a 2 Funds for Life Portfolio? Where do I find information on how you make your selection of Best In Class ETFs?  Here is the page that has links to the articles, podcasts and video.  Plus here is a link to Chris' AAII article on the topic.  I'm setting up a  50/50 small cap value/target date fund.  Would it help to add international small cap value? How about using two small cap value ETFs?  DFA and Avantis each have similar ETFs but different portfolios.   What is the status of Chris' new white paper on 2 Funds for Life?

Three big things you need to know: First, 4Q23 reporting season stats are similar to what we've described over the past few weeks with fewer earnings beats than last quarter, muted stock price reactions following earnings prints, and further compression in the forecasted growth rate embedded in consensus earnings expectations for 2024. Second, in our review of last week's S&P 500 earnings calls the tone was mixed on the macro, negative on China, and had a positive tilt on the consumer.Third, two of the charts in focus in our Europe/UK meetings last week included our chart showing how the earnings dominance of the top 7 names in the S&P 500 is fading (which may help spark leadership rotation down the road) and our chart showing how net bullishness on the AAII survey may be heading for a 2-standard deviation event (delaying the pullback we have been anticipating).

Brad Stone, Bloomberg News Senior Executive Editor for Global Tech, shares his AI insights from the World Economic Forum in Davos. Wedbush's Dan Ives details his takeaways from the CES conference. Dana Telsey of the Telsey Advisory Group discusses the strength of the US consumer in the wake of retail sales data. Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders ties in Led Zepplein with her markets outlook. Hosted by Tom Keene and Damian Sassower. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. He is definitive on Amazon of course, the Trophy book right now Amazon Unbound. Jeff Bezos The Invention of a Global Empire. He joins us from Davos, the meetings of the World Economic Forum at brad Thrilled to have you with Bloomberg Surveillance this morning. Let me cut to the chase. I see AI at Microsoft is countable, revenue, co pilot, azore all the rest of it. And I see a lot of other AI is smoking mirrors. How do you parse between legitimate artificial intelligence future and the makeup, the fantasy, the comedy of it. How do you parse? Oh? Boy, well, thanks Tom for having me. Hi Damien. Look, I've been covering Silicon Valley long enough that I've seen this story play out before. We're at the beginning of a hype cycle. There will be disappointment a lot of you know, the visions of Agi computers that reason that change our world, they seem far fetched, you know. There there we talk about a trough of dissolutionment that will happen. But you're right that there you know that there are real revenues, real benefits. Yesterday, Microsoft announced that it was bringing its open AI powered co pilot to the office seat, so you know at twenty dollars a month, making it available small business as an individual users. That's real. Yeah, brtt I signed up last night. I was going to be reack. Can you see me, Damien? Can you see me do an artificial Intelli get out of the way. Fred. If I look at this, can you say that the Magnificent seven they seem to be away from the hype. How is the Magnificent seven going to create revenue and cash flow out of AI? Yeah? I mean they're the best position because they're they're they're selling the picks and shovels to all the miners. You know, this is Alphabet and Amazon and Microsoft running the world's most powerful cloud services and making basically AI available as a service to every university and startup in consumer goods company that you know wants to use these tools for a variety. It's it could be R and D could be customer service. So you know, even even though that'll be a work in progress there, the revenues will be real. My question for Santia Tom by the way yesterday was you know, do you control any of this. You're you're investors in open AI. You don't even have a board seat. You're like in the back of the bus with a seatbelt, and it's got such peculiar governance. And he said, you know, it's fine, we just want stability. So I don't know if I quite believe it. I think they're outsourcing a key competency. But they're in the cappards seat, the driver's seat because they did make that investment. I'm sure the Amazons and the Googles of the world wish that they hadn't passed up the open AI opportunity when they had the chance. Well, Brad, I appreciate you answering those two questions from that artificial personification of Tom Keen that wasn't really Tom Keen answering those questions, And my question for you is talk to me about deep fake videos X these platforms. What's to stop open AI and chat, GPT and all this artificial nonsense from mudding the waters ahead of the election? Yeah? Well, what it's funny because it is really the talk of the conference that you've got national elections in some seventy seven countries around the world. Half the world's population could head to the polls at the same time as this enormously powerful technology is made available to people, and what's to stop it from being missus? I know this is going to carry a lot of water with our listeners, but you know they are raising their right hand and putting their left hand over their hearts and saying, we're not going to allow our technology to be abusing. They really understand the risks. I mean, I mean do they? I think they do? They? I think they do because we've all seen this movie before and meta its reputation went through the meat grinder because social media was perverted. You know, yesterday, it's no surprise that Sam Altman's here. He spent time with us at the Bloomberg House, and before our interview, they posted a statement on their blog on their election policy and said that chat GPT cannot be used for any political campaign. And they said that images generated by DOLI, their their image maker, will carry a cryptographic watermark to show the providence. And but you know, and my question for Sam was like, these are great intentions. You've got the weight of all the black cat developers trying to break this stuff. How to enforce it where Meta and Google and TikTok have all kind of let failed it with the genie out of the bottle, right And he said, you know, they're aware of the risks. So I do think it's going to be a rocky year with some of these elections, and we're going to see this technology abuse, right, brand I'm sure that no one can forge those crypto water marks. I have one last question. I mean, my colleague Tim Craig had from BI is actually in Davos listening to Altman, and he said, I mean, you know, Paulman obviously spoke and he was talking about how AI will make people more productive. Talk to us a little bit about that narrative. The great worry is that when this technology is fully implemented, that there will be a great dislocation of workers at low level level programmers, customer service agents, you know, in en mass replacement along with productivity, and it will worsen the digital divide, and you'll have countries that are particularly hard hit, and it could lead to further political alienation and you know, maybe more or autocratic government's or real nightmare scenario. So you know, that's the worry. And I think the stewards of this technology, you know, Davos is the land of performative optimism, I kind of like to joke, And so of course they're saying that it's going to increase productivity and we're all going to lead better lives working less. You know, maybe Tom will get to sleep in one one morning when AI kind of takes over. But I don't know. I mean, you know, the I think it will make people more productive, but I think it might replace some jobs as well. More question, I think it's what everyone knows. With your your ownership of Amazon and all you've done with the Amazon unbound, They've gone round trip massive post pandemic collapse. The come back is the next Amazon, Josie's Amazon. Is it going to make total return like we've known over the last decade. Excuse me, so you're asking me about the stock price. I mean it's it's yeah. I mean, look, if I could predict it, I'd probably be in a different line of work. I mean, I do think. You know, Andy Jassey is now a couple of years into his tenure. He is and by the way he's here at Davos, he has pared back some of the excesses of the late stage Bezos that we just saw another round of Laos. This is becoming a very lead and efficient company as he bets on the core competencies, which is AWS and the Amazon marketplace, empowering third party sellers. They've got their work cut out for them. But I do think there's a bit of momentum there. Brad Stone from the meetings of the World Economic Forum, I can't say enough about his new book, Amazon and Bound. Jeff Bezos, The Invention of a Global Empire, Joining us now the Tech Pignata of two twenty four. Daniel Heize joins us in Webbush. He's been traveling ces Las Vegas, joining us today from Warsaw Poland. And what you learn at Las Vegas at cees don't give me the mumbo jumble. What was the backstory in Las Vegas? I thought it's about Ai just how mainstream the technology is getting. I mean, tom My opinion, the biggest cees in the last twenty five years. It shows this AI revolution it's not hype, it's real. It's on the doorstep. I want you to talk Dan Ives, and this is what you don't see folks, as Dan Ives is doing the media blah blah blah by this apple. The gloom crew hates them, but beneath it is careful financial work. Can you quantify what the new announcement of AI over to Microsoft three sixty five, like, can you add up the impact of that to a giant company like Microsoft. It's when you put it together, this is going to be eight hundred billion to a trillion of incremental value to the Microsoft story. I mean they are leading the AI revenlue with the Della and Redman, along with the godfather of AI jents and the video Tom I think the monzation that's happening in Microsoft is still so underappreciated in terms of what we're seeing in the field. Dan they're asking for more money, I mean they're asking for more computing power, more hardware, more technology. They say, this is not just big, it is massive. It is huge. Do you agree with that. I think it's the biggest transformational tech we've seen since Star of the Internet. And that's why enterprises they're lining up. Conversion could be sixty seventy percent. And that's why as Tom's talking about the doomsayers again, you know, obviously negative untech, I think this earning season turns that around because the real monization of AI is here. It starts from the Della and Microsoft and Dan. I mean the real I mean you just said it right there. Don't you need access to data, to unique data sets in order to basically make the AI go. And so when I think of Amazon, okay, find they've got access to consumer data, I think of Microsoft. It's everything else. You know, people on their computer and talk to us about these companies and the data they have access to and how that's going to differentiate them in the environment you're talking about. I mean, it's a new age. And that's why when you look at the cloud, the big hyperscale players, Microsoft, of course, Amazon, Google and others, they've had the data sets, but they haven't had the tools that they can monetize and make intelligence. That that's why the use cases are excluding. That's why this AI revolution right now, I believe it fuels is new tech bull market. I a February second, We're going to get Apple earnings. It's a ballet. I actually sit down with the beverage of my choice folks at the home computer after the surveillance n APP and what's a joy here? Is they release like other firms, a press release that's clear and in English? Dan ies, what are we going to see in the treatment of the four accounting statements from Apple? Four pm, February second. Yeah, look, that's the drum roll, right, And I think when Cooper Tino comes out, the big thing is going to be services. We are looking at team type of growth for services and that's key that could really be incrementally we need that as a one point five to one point six trillion services the margins double out of hardware obviously all focus on iPhone units. Despite obviously many yelling fire in a crowd theater, I actually think it was a pretty strong iPhone unit number. Okay, wait, well, want to get upside of the track now, Dan knows a drill, Damian pick it up here. Okay, But I'm sitting there with the beverage in my left hand, looking at the accounting statement, and the media is not readjusting the currency iPhone sales as mister Ive says, we're pretty darn good. And then you had to figure in dollar currency adjustments. Whoa doom and gloom? I mean, Ives is one hundred percent right about the iPhone of the global market, Tom. I mean, it just passed Samsung as the world's top phone in the full year twenty twenty three. But I mean, Dan, here's my question. What companies are best position to profit from what you're talking about here? I mean, is it the chip makers? I mean what sort of hardware companies? Is it software? I mean, what are you seeing? I think it's software and chips. When you look at names like Microsoft, the Magnificent seven, you can Microsoft, Google, Amazon. Then you look at some of these names like Mango, dB, Salesforce, dot Com and of course a MD with Lisa Sue and chips. This is the start of this tidal wave, A trillion dollars of incremental spend next decade. That's how this is all going to play out. Software and chips leading it. You know, I got one more for you. I mean, if you're a new company with you know, and you're in the AI boom, and you know you've got the talent, and you know you're competing. Where do you want to be located? Do you want to be on the West Coast? Do you still want to be in Palo Alto. I want to be based in a five one two area. Oh. Really, that's new look and that's what that's that's that's a silicon value two dot of you're seeing that boom more and more for AI engineers, and I think that's really started the new age that we're seeing from an AI perspective. Well, we'll help our international audience. What is Michael Dell and Venna down in Austin to the two of you, Damien? When you think five to one two South Congress, I think of South Congress. I think of barbecue. I mean I think of Austin, Texas. I mean that is the Los Angeles. I think of Joe Wisenthal's band myself. I think they're you know, outstanding dan Ees. What's special about Austin, Texas. I Mean, there's a lot of things special about Austin, Texas, but the engineering talent that that's been created there, obviously outside University of Texas, is really unprecedented. It's one of the you know, more and more tech companies from Google to of course Tessa to Meadow moving down there, and it's really becoming a really go to destination for tech leaving the four one five, going to the five one two worldwide on Bloomberg surveillance. And it's time now to make some news. You got a two hundred and fifty dollars price target on Apple. Can we lift that up to day? Miss Graves? I mean, look Tom, I mean you talk the bolt case. This will be a four trillion dollar mark ab we believe by the end of this year. I remember AI. There's zero dollars given for AI in Apple's valuation. That's why this is it. Get that popcorn ready in the key in household when they come out with that AI and au June from Warsaw poland a trooper to be with us in his travels. Dana is a Webush of course, outstanding work by him. It's he's with Webbush Security is optimistic on Apple and computers. Right now, we're going to talk about the pulse of the Christmas holiday this season that we saw. There's just no one better to do with this than Dana at Telsea with all of our heritage at the corner in Fifth Avenue in fifty seventh Street, her family's heritage, and she's done it in securities analysis per year at Dana, you were right, the gloom crew was wrong. What did the people of caution get wrong about retail America into the end of the year. I think overall, and Tom, thank you so much for having me. I think overall. One of the key things that was the difference is we had Christmas that was later this year, so people had more time in order to procrastinate, and so really everything was driven around the event days, whether it was the Black Friday weekend or then that week leading up to Christmas. It's what made the difference. It's not that holiday sales were so great, but goods sold at full price inventory levels only, and sales came in line with expectations for the most part. And as a Dana Telsea Microeconomics Damien sasaw or what she just said there goods sold at full price was to me my observation on it. You know, I'm curious, Dan, I'm curious to here we got some China date overnight, right, I know, I just I'm pivoting away here, but I mean, wow, that economy is sluggish, and I think a lot of the big luxury goods LVMH carrying her mad I mean, they were a pretty big overnight in Europe. Talk to us a little bit about what that GDP figure means to you, what it means to me, especially for luxury and I spoke last week to the CEOs of Neiman, Marcus and Sacks, and they all talked about the slowing and more challenging luxury goods environment. Look at Berbery's numbers, which we were just released at the end of the week last week, it talked about the slowdown and in Europe, the local slowdown spending and you're still not seeing the Chinese come over and spend, whether in Europe or in the US, anywhere near what we had pre pandemic. We're gonna get next week LVMH. And I think all eyes are going to be on what they say about the deceleration globally. Is there Tiffany experiment working out for those of you internationally? We have two blocks away from us, really across the street from where Dana grew up, Tiffany's with one hundred million dollars or so investment by the Arnoul family. Has that experiment been successful for LVMH. It has. Not only has it been successful, but also they garnered profitability much quicker, frankly than when it was a public company. And the way they've done it, they modernized the store, they've modernized the products. They've brought in influencers, celebrities that appeal to younger consumer. Think about it. You're talking about engagement jewelry. When do people get engaged twenties and thirties want to have a store to cater to that demographic. She's just joining us on Bloomberg surveinglist. Dana Telsey, the Telsey Advisory Group. She and Joe Feldman with great work across all of retail. And I know Damien Missus Sassa are called me up. She said, you got to ask about the ani there leathern Red Soul Christian labby Tom Boots one thousand and five hundred ninety five dollars. It's a way to get through the snow drifts. Yeah, no, I'm not in New York City. I'm not worried about demand with Missus Sasa right there. But what I will say and Dana, And this is my question for you. You know, El Nino, right, input costs, margins, you know, talk to me about the impact of El Nino on cotton prices on some of these things. I mean, do you see that kind of trickling through to the bottom line? It does? I mean one of the things keep in mind all the freight expenses and the tailwinds that companies got from lower freight costs in twenty twenty three. Apparel, it's going to benefit with lower cotton costs in twenty twenty four, but maybe not to the same magnitude. We're still going to need some level of sales leverage. And there are two drivers in twenty twenty four. It's about innovation and it's about value. You have those two elements and you'll have a formula to drive sales growth. So talk to us also. I mean on the input side, I mean, what are you thinking here? I mean, gas prices are now ticking up. Obviously we didn't see much evidence of that in the retail sales print. But you know, how does this really impact some of these you know, these large luxury goods companies. I mean, do you see any pack there? I don't for certainly for raw materials, cost increases, luxury goods. Companies have the power frankly of being able to raise price. You're certainly seeing Chanelle do it trying to reach what Ourmez is doing. But all the others you're not seeing price increases like you had, and they're managing their inventory much more carefully. I gotta go get your away from March data. Telsey, tell me about your single best buy when you and Joe Felman get to work. Where's the value? Is it in big box? Is it in middle of the road or is it in lux I think overall, definitely. I think when the weakness and luxury, like any weakness in LVMH, I think that's an opportunity. But really it continues to be about off price and discount. Given what you've seen in the moderation consumer spend a low TJX I mean air Mez, I mean, I guess leading Away is being least affected. Why are they trading at a multiple of forty seven times earnings? Because, frank when you think about something like Ramez, there is so far there is no level of supply where the demand doesn't exceed the supply. Miss yeah, perfect, I mean to interrupt Missus Sassar's on the phone. What's the question? She only shots at the Ponsovecchio in Florence. Tom Now, I mean, you know, I was just in Europe and I have to say, I mean there was a lot of foot track in some traffic in some of these places. And you know you talk about Hugo Boss, you know who had disappointing operating profits. I mean Berber you mentioned them. I think you know, the things seem to be turning around here in Europe. That's good to hear. I think that would help all a luxury. Lisa Mateo's here as well. She wants to ask the question. Lisa Matteo, question here for Dana Telsea to get your retail days started. Ooh, all right, what is the hottest? What should I be looking for? As far as you hear these talks about selling back those fashionable high end pocket books, if I just happened to have one at home, what's the remarket value of something like that? It depends if it's an ermez bag, whatever market value you walked it out of the store of or tried to bring it to someone to sell, it's higher. And for some I've heard it's at least ten percent higher. Even the day it walks out the door, it holds its value. What's the greatest brand destructure into Lisa Matteo's brilliant question, which is the bag Lisa wants to unload this morning? Do you want a higher price? A Birken or a Kelly? Is your bag that you're going to get a higher price? Dana Telsey, thank you. So it's give me a single best buy, please, I need a name here. Give me a single best bike. Go to TJX. Believe me, it's the winner for twenty four and they have the Kelly bag as well. Dana Telsey, thank you, thank you, thank you so much. On the real retail of America now joining us to piece it Together's liz Ane Saunders, chief investment strategist to Charles Schwab, She's in charge their led Zeppelin division or thrilled that you could join today. I look at the market and I need a whole lot of love here, and to me, the whole lot of love is going to come from six trillion dollars in money market funds. How much of that is going to go? At Schwab over to the equity market. I wouldn't necessarily count on a lot of it. I don't think that that should be seen as money that is poised to jump into the equity market. I think a lot of that is stickier money that might have been in other places, including traditional deposits, or in riskier places in order to pick up income that now can be in the safety. And also, yes, six trillion dollars is a record, but we're nowhere near a record as a share of total stock market capitalization. All you have to do is look to the nineteen nineties to see a period where you consistently saw increases in the amount of money and money market funds commensurate with the increase in the stock market, the drivers being different. So I don't view that as some sort of moment in time source of additional funds that would flow into equities. Right now, I'm confused because I get a stream of thought that people are cautious, nervous, and I get another stream of thought that everybody, including damiens ors O Pair, is in the market. Which is it at Schwab, is there an enthusiasm by your clients for equities? I think there's cautious optimism I wouldn't consider it over enthusiasm. In fact, if you look at attitudinal measures of investor sentiment more broadly than Josh Schwab, although at seven trillion dollars we're a pretty big slice of the retail investing universe. But if you look at attitudinal measures like AAII, those are purely attitudinal. It's survey base, and that's jumped around quite a bit, and it's just there tends to be more of a knee jerk reaction to what's going on in the market moment in time. But even within that survey you get the equity exposure, and at times where you've seen bearishness really pick up fairly quickly, it's not met with a similar move down in equity exposure. So I think when looking at sentiment, you've got to look at the marriage between the attitudinal side and the behavioral side. Interesting and of course, in the nine o'clock are here Wall Street time, Damien Sassar has been medicated to tang mimosas have clicked in Damien. No questions to lizan on Indonesia. Okay, I'm not going to channel Robert Planting led Zippelin led Zeppelin now Lizan, but I am going to channel Pink Floyd. I'm gonna channel Roger Waters. Here are the markets comfortably numb to the concept of a FED cut in March? I mean, let's be clear, I mean like, this is unbelievable that you know the markets are priced that way, yet you know it seems to becoming fast becoming consensus. What are your thoughts on that? So we have seen a bit of a shift, particularly with with today's retail sales report. So a week ago, if you look at probabilities in terms of FOED funds future market of what's going to happen at the March FOMC meeting, you were up at around sixty five percent probability. I think that's down to I don't know, fifty seven or fifty eight percent now, and it's been kind of a moving target. So I think the market may slowly be adjusting to what. Frankly, most FED speakers have been trying. The message they've been trying to impart is you know whoa all l squel. It's given what we know now, it is probably not a backdrop supportive of not just starting as soon as March, but the FED providing you know, six rate cuts this year. I think that disconnect still exists, it's just not as wide as it was even a week ago. So then lusanna backuping yields means, I guess from the equity perspective, you want to get a little bit more defensive. What areas of the market would you go to to protect to protect in this type of environment. I mean you would think classic defensive sectors like you know, utilities. I mean, I mean, look at where valuations are there, I mean, what works in your portfolio. Well, so there are the classic defensive sectors like utilities. Then there's this era's defense sectors, which incorporates what I call the growth trio of tech communication service as a consumer discretionary of course, housing all of the Magnificent seven and really all the way back to the early part of the pandemic. That's been this era's defensive type names. And that's because of strength the balance sheet. They don't have to rely on funding in the traditional banking system or even in the capital markets. So defensive is just a descriptor. It's not some well determined type, and it is quality and you know, it's specific to the beginning of your question with this direct relationship in yields, I mean the peak and yields. It gave us the big move up from late July, I mean from late October until the end of the year. But then we saw that bottom end yields, and that meant we saw the market rollover, particularly small caps. And one of the things we've been saying, especially with small caps, do you know there's money that's once to find ideas down the cap spectrum, but do not sacrifice quality, particularly when you go down the cap spectrum. So you want to still have that strength of balance sheet, interest coverage very importantly, especially as yields tick back up again, strong return on equity, have an actual earnings profile, don't be a zombie company or a non profitable company. And I think that's a lesson being taught in the last few weeks. Well, Lazan, I do have one last question there, what about this low volatility factor. I see a lot of investors moving into low VALL as sort of a defensive way of approaching the equity market. Here, how did those sectors screen from a low VALL perspective? So it's a factor that has done well when the other quality factors have been doing well, when you get these moves shifts in expectations for either FED policy or the economy, and you see it reflect and yields. You can go through short periods where you get higher volatility, higher variability as factors that do well. I think those you probably want to fade those lower quality factors, And I think low volatility maybe not as important as it was last twoar but I still think it's in the basket of quality oriented factors. Lisanzi, your iconic work. How for our listeners are viewers on YouTube? How do you avoid a Boeing? How do you avoid a Disney? How do you avoid blue chip stocks that blow up? Well, don't have a heck of a lot of your portfolio invest in any one name or even group of names. So I think that that's one of the messages that come from things like the mag seven. There's nothing wrong. There's a reason why those stocks have done well because they check the boxes on so many of those quality factors. But be mindful of volatility and portfolio based rebalancing. You know a lot of investors do the rebalancing based on the calendar. They might do it once a year, at best once a quarter. But our message has been let your portfolio tell you when it's time to rebalance, even at the individual stock level, where the moves in your portfolio are going to dictate when you add low and trim high. Maybe don't focus so much on doing it at the calendar. Okay, trigger, stop the show. This is the single most important insight of the day for all of you listening and watching. I can't say enough the importance of moving to a Sander's percentage ownership rebail versus a calendar gimmick invented by marketing people that have never owned a share of Anaconda Copper in their life. Liz Anna, what percentage is a vanilla statement? Do you rebail? Is it when something gets the five percent of portfolio? Or is there a Sander's magic number. I don't know that there's a magic number for individual investors. Keeping mind though, that part of the issue with the mag seven and how big they've become as a share of the SMP recently hitting thirty percent, is that even institutional managers, whether it's mutual funds or even ETFs, have perhaps on how much they can own if the S and P. If someone just said, hey, let's create this index and here's what's going to look like. It wouldn't actually pass muster or securities regulations, not to mention the fact that many fund managers can't hold such a large share of those names. So you can use that as maybe not an exact guide for what percent becomes too much, but this notion that there are going to be a lot of institutions that simply have to trim because of their own guidelines on how much they can own of the stock. Just in many cases it's fibers. We've got to interrupt with. And just in from led Zeppelin News, Robert Plant will tour the United Kingdom with Saving Grace. Look for that two thousand and twenty four. I want to see him tour with Jimmy Page and John Paul Jones and Jason Bottoms. So that's what I'm waiting for. That's what she's waiting for, and she will be there in the arena when they do that. So well, Lizzie Siders, thank you so much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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Today in the podcast, three big things you need to know: First, similar to the S&P 500, R2000 returns tend to be positive but modest in Presidential election years. Second, the valuation appeal of Small Caps runs deep and exists within both Growth and Value using both equal weighted and market cap weighted P/E's. But Small Caps' valuation appeal has only recently emerged on equal weighted P/E's, helping explain why Small Caps have had a difficult 2023. Third, investor sentiment is on the cusp of looking overly enthusiastic again on the weekly AAII survey, restraining our enthusiasm for the US equity market in the near-term.

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says the status of the economy doesn't justify the Fed cutting rates. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, claims banks will remain at the center of lending, but that private credit can now compete in ways it previously couldn't. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Director of Public Policy, previews the fourth GOP presidential debate. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews a brand-new episode of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. 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transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa abrahmoids along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I've been looking forward to this conversation. Liz An Son is the chief Investments trying to just a chold swap joins us right now. Lizan, I've been looking forward to it because we're not going to talk about self landing, hard landing, no landing, none of that. We're going to talk about what you and a team have been focused on now for a while, and that's rolling recessions. That is a framework, Lizen. Why is that so important for you? That nuance? Well, first of all, this is a unique cycle. That's the ultimate understatement. I think taking a nuanced approach is important, and we've been using that term for quite some time. I think the only other person that I know that's been using as long as we have is Ed yard Denny, and not that we want to rehash the last three and a half years, but if you think about the stimulus fuel demand surge coming out of the worst part of the pandemic, all of that demand and money associated with it was funneled into the good side of the economy because we had no access to services. That was where the inflation problem first began on the good side of the economy, exacerbated by the supply chain disruptions. But fast forward to the more recent period, we've gone into hard landing recessions for housing, manufacturing, a lot of housing related, many of the consumer product areas that were big beneficiaries of the lockdown, and we've gone from inflation to disinflation to deflation in many of the goods categories. We've just had the later offsetting strength on the services side. Same thing as rolled through in terms of inflation. So to me, best case scenario is not really soft landing that Schuberti sailed for many important segments of the economy. It's a continued roll through where if in when services in the labor market get hit, you have found stability and maybe even some improvement in those areas that have already taken their hit. Lezan, love your nuance. Let's build on that. Where are you seeing opportunities that might have hit bottom that you want to be investing in now, In particular sectors that you think already have rolled through, they're hard landing and are now buys. I still think that investors are better off taking a factor based approach as opposed to a monolithic sector based approach, But we have made some adjustments in terms of the foot factors that we're focused on. As you know we've talked about it on this program. We have been emphasizing stay up in quality with factors like interest coverage and strong return on equity and strong balance sheet, but also growthy factors like positive earnings, revisions and surprises. But I think you want to now add kind of evaluation kicker into the mix because this year was characterized by all multiple expansion, no earnings growth. We see in the last month that there is money itching to move out of the Magnificent seven to find opportunities down the cap spectrum. And you have seen some lower quality characteristics to of what has rallied. I think you want to fade that and continue to lean into quality. But you can find it across the spectrum of sectors and also outside that group of just the Magnificent seven. So you said something Lezen talking about how people are itching to take the money that they've put into the Magnificent seven and put it to work elsewhere that might be at a lower valuation. How big is that wave of people is to get out of the Magnificent seven. Is this something that could cause an underperformance or is it just simply there's just been so much money people are looking for other ideas well. So far, so good in terms of the rotational nature of this easing of some of the excesses, You've seen some pullback in the Magnificent seven. The rest of two thousand SMP equal weight is outperforming the SMP over the past month or so. It's happened in kind of a stealth way. That's obviously the best way to go through a corrective phase of excesses versus the bottom falling out all at once. What concerns me, particularly once we get past the year end seasonality, is that there is an incredible amount of overlap, especially in the large institutional world and the hedge fund world, in terms of ownership of not just the magnificent seven but up the cap spectrum, and that you know, if we get some sort of catalyst and it unleashes more frenzy around selling, I think maybe the hit would have to be larger, but I do think absent that we could continue to see a broadening out via rotation again as opposed to some significant crack occurring in the market. Lasan, can you help us gauge sentiment? Just sort of a bit wittold, least from myself repeatedly that the money money market funds is really really sticky. As you look across clients, to the people you speak to daily, have they been moving into equities over the last month? What was that move in November? So you've seen some move in equities, But it's actually, interestingly within the US equity market been toward areas like real estate utilities, and I think that is in keeping with expectations of sooner rather than later fed cuts. I'm skeptical about that, but that's where the money has gone. But sentiment is really interesting because attitudinal sentiment measures have gone off the charts of bullishness and very little bearishness. Yet even the AAII survey that we get those attitudinal bullish bearish readings, the equity exposure of that same cohort of investors has actually been coming down. On the other hand, active institutional managers have actually been significantly increasing exposure. So much like cross currents in the economy, there's even a lot of cross currents in terms of sentiment data, and it's really a mixed picture, and sentiment is hard to It's always hard to use as some market timing tool, even at extremes, but it's particularly murky in this environment right now. Lizen, just a put a bow on it. You did just mentioned that that you're skeptical about right cuts. Can you just explain that a little bit more, Well, the inflation is still above the FEDS target, the labor market is hanging in there, the economy is hanging in there. How that justifies a pivot from the most aggressive tightening cycle to easing as soon as the first quarter of next year. I don't get it. It's possible to find to be easy, but probably because there's more economic dislocation between now and then. In addition, you had the Fed and Powell specifically pointing to the bond market doing a lot of the tightening for the FED when you were in the surge and yields up to five percent. To me, what would be interesting to hear is if they start to say, well, the loosening, which is a record one month loosening in financial conditions in November, maybe that does some of the loosening for the FED. And it wouldn't surprise me if Powell has to yet again reinforce the notion that they're not at this point considering rate cuts. That's the conversation for a week today. Listen. Thank you Lizanne Sunders, a child swab one of the very best joining us at Amandelinum, head of macro credit research at Black Crock Andmanic good morning, good morning, Thank you both for having me. How much money is shift into private markets. So our forecast calls for that asset class to grow from one point six trillion globally to three and a half trillion by the end of twenty twenty eight. So that implies a pretty significant continued growth pattern through the next five years. There are really four drivers behind that. The increase in the addressable market is one of them, but it's really investors looking for diversification, borrowers looking for certainty of execution, structural shifts in the public markets which are now serving larger and larger borrowers, so that renders small middle market debt deals ill liquid. And then fourth is the opportunity for banks to partner with non banks. And also just given the well telegraphed contraction in bank lending and tightening of bank lending standards to really fuel that growth. And so that's our forecast. Was that a really nice way of saying D banking that basically private credit is stealing banks lunch. I watched all of your great coverage yesterday, and I did see the D Banking dialogue. I actually think I agree with the comments that banks will remain at the center of the lending universe. That said, I think the important takeaway is that as private credit has become sizeable and scalable in its own right, it can now compete against other parts of the market where it wasn't historically. And so what we've actually seen are some companies with demonstrated access to the public markets choosing to refinance in the private markets. I think there's an opportunity for banks to partner with non banks in terms of in an environment where capital and liquidity rules may change, to partner and maybe move some of that lending into other parts of the non bank system. Doesn't mean that the risk transfer is a negative. It just means that capital is being reallocated, just like it did after the financial crisis. So there is this sort of larger question when you say banks will still be the center of the lending universe, it raises this question about what that means. There'll be the center in terms of maybe organizing some of these transactions, but not necessarily the center of profits, not necessarily the center of deploying risk and then getting that outsize return for some of these private loans. Is that what we're saying that they're going to be the center of sort of some of the transactional aspects, but that private credit firms are going to really get the upside from these loans that banks used to capture. I mean, I think from the side of the banking relationship, they really have a lot of the client relationships, a lot of the underwriting expertise. But in an environment where risk weighted assets are going up, does it make sense to hold all of that capital on the bank balance sheet or is there a more capital efficient way to do it? I think that's really the shift that we're seeing now. Some of these factors have been in place for a really long time, going back to the Financial crisis. After Dodd Frank was enacted, the public syndicated leverage loan markets grew because banks didn't want to keep those loans on their balance sheet. Instead they syndicated them out to a wide range of investors. That's how the public debt markets have been growing for so long. So I think that's just it's another sort of iteration of this capital allocation that's shifting in response to the regional banking disruption in March, in response to the potential rules for Basle three endgame, and I think it's probably a longer term shift. By the way, I would say, you know, our three and a half trillion forecast, it assumes a fifteen percent compound annual growth rate. That's actually below the growth rate that we've seen over the past five years, and it's consistent with the growth rate over the past decade. So it sounds large, but it's actually a continuation of the trend that's already been in place. Let's talk about big moves out of the last month. Credit spread so much tighter on high yield. I think three sixty seven right now, I just want it from your perspective, still up in quality, and what do you make of this move? So, I mean, I think the move it's very It's consistent with this kind of year end rally that has been fueled by pretty favorable technicals. We've seen issuance pick up, but not to a significant extent that it's interfering with that tightening. From our perspective, yes, up in quality still makes a lot of sense. For this really important reason. Most of the issuance in twenty twenty three, and I'm talking about the left in market has been up in quality within that market, so double bes and high single bees. The low low end of the quality spectrum, so triple c's and low single bees, has really been untested. There's been a lot of talk about rate cuts. That's not really our base case in the first half. But even if we do get a few modest rate cuts, just to put that in perspective, the implied refinancing cost on average for triple C's is above six hundred basis points. For the distressed universe it's above fourteen hundred basis points. So this low end of the quality spectrum. Even if we get some rate relief, they're still going to be refinancing into a much higher cost of capital regime. How long can goldilocks lost goldilocks last? Then? I think it's the title of our one Q outlook was a widening divide, and I really think it speaks to the dispersion that's evident under the surface and a lot of these markets. So for goldilocks, investment grade goldilocks, you know, high quality, high yield, they're in a pretty good spot, especially if we can achieve the soft landing. If you're a triple C rated credit that has refined nancing to do and you're looking at your current coupon and then the six hundred basis points that it may cost you to refinance in today's market or more much different story. It's part of the reason why we expect defaults to continue to march higher through the first half of next year. It's not not a spike, not a significant increase. But I don't think we ask a lot have we seen the last of this transition to a higher cost of capital. I don't believe that we have with us around the table. I'm really placed society brilliant. Libby Cantroll, the managing director and head a public policy over at PIMCO. Libby, good morning. Another big debate for Republicans. Big debate? Yes, is this the big one? The difference? This is the big one? So this may be the last one. Actually, there's not another debate schedule before Iowa, when voters, of course on the Republican side, will go to the polls on January fifteenth. Viewership has declined since the first debate. That's when we saw sort of top tick of thirteen million. The last debate was around seven million, So we'll see if people are even paying attention to this. I think the real question, though John is does can Nicky Haley have another breakout moment? Does this sort of sustain the momentum that she has both in terms of the polling but very importantly in terms of the donors, And that remains an open question. I think that the other three folks on the debate stage will be sort of attacking Nicki Haley. I think Nicki Heley will be attacking President Trump, so it should be raucous as usual. But does it actually make a difference. I think that's the open question. What's the chance that you see another Biden Trump matchup. Well, so you know, what we're guiding our clients too, is one is that Biden will be the nominee. This sort of idea that there is some great cabal at the convention that will unseat him. We just do not think as founded. Senator bros from Louisiana, who had served with Joe Biden in the Senate, said, as long as President Biden is breathing, he is running. And I think that is something we should just you know, take take for what it is. You know, on the Republican side, obviously, if the primaries were held tomorrow, it looks like Trump would be the nominee. They're not going to be held tomorrow. They're held in around forty days. And what we've seen with Iowa and New Hampshire is that things can change. They haven't really changed in terms of dictating who the nominee is since two thousand and eight when Obama, who was sort of underperforming all of the polls, that really outperformed in both Iowa and New Hampshire and was able to get the momentum to the nomination. So a lot can still happen, but as of now, if you were saying, if the primaries were held tomorrow, it would be another Biden Trump rematch, and you know, ironically, I'll just say, is that seventy percent of Americans don't want that. So that's the reason why I think it got so much attention yesterday when Joe Biden said if it wasn't for Donald Trump, he wouldn't be running again. What do you make of that? Do you make that if NICKI Haley is the nominee for the Republican side, that there is a chance that Joe Biden would step down and pave the way for somebody else. So his his pressure ap really watched that back last night after those comments were made. They were made, of course in private at a fundraiser, so was maybe I think they're saying taken out of context. You know. However, you know, this is something that President Biden has been saying since he was a candidate in twenty twenty, that that's why he was running the first time, and so this is somewhat consistent with that messaging. However, if Trump does not get the nomination, I still think that President Biden is the incumbent president. He believes that he really has a record both on the economy and then foreign policy to feel confident to run on. So we are not getting sort of any indication from folks close to the Biden world that he is, that he's not running. He is running. We've been all appreciate. I think we could all benefit from a delegation oudication rules clinic from you. How have things changed for Republican primary, especially as a non Yes, a US citizen, So I appreciate you on that question. Yeah, so this is important. It's like very wants and a lot of our client's eyes understandably glazed over. But to get the nomination, it's just a delegate game. You need to get fifty percent of the delegates at stake on the Republican side and the Democratic side. The Republican side is the real story here, though, because the Trump campaign much more organized than it was in twenty sixteen. By their own emission, they have now systematically changed the way that states allocate delegate rules to benefit him as long as it's a crowded field, meaning that he They've changed the rules to what's called winner take all, So as long as President Trump is winning a plurality of the vote in many states, he will get one hundred percent of the delegates, and the punchline for all of us is that that makes it much easier for him to get the nomination much more quickly. So I would argue that by March fifth, which is Super Tuesday, we'll have had forty five percent of the delegates at stake being voted on, we likely will have a very good idea of who's going to be the nominee or whether it's going to be more of a competitive two person race. As you said, so we know there's four people on the stage. Later is on the calendar where that for needs to become one to change the outcome of this. Well, I think there are a lot of folks on both the Republican side and then also some of the Democratic side. As you've seen, there's some now Democratic donors who are you know, donating to Nicki Haley sort of interesting, unprecedented in many ways, who are trying to argue for a Chris Christy to say drop out of the race before Iowa. You know, John, I think what we've seen though before is that again so much can change. That much of this is unprecedented, particularly given what we might be facing, which is you know, two incumbent presidents effectively running against each other. So you know, I don't think there's a drop dead date, but I do think that it needs to become a two person race sort of by South Carolina. That's February twenty fourth. So I think the bottom line for kind of the markets and for investors is that the next seventy five days really matters. We will have a very good idea by sort of South Carolina by Super Tuesday, which is March fifth, whether this is going to be President Trump Biden or whether it's going to be more of a two person race between Nicky Haley and Trump. In those seventy five days, we're going to be dealing with a couple of deadlines for funding the government. Before I let you go, we keep talking about where is the leverage. The leverage is in the US government. I then you figure something out in order to keep operating. How are you advising people in the market to understand what's happening, what the likelihood of a shutdown is, what that means in terms of the growing risk frankly that it's been attributed to in markets. Yeah, So mean I think that two things. One is that this is not the dead ceiling, right. The debt ceiling was existential for the markets that has been fortunately addressed until January or February of twenty twenty five. This is really the most foundational function of Congress is just to keep the lights on. They keep kicking the can down the road, Lisa, does it really matter if they shut down the government? Probably not if it's not for a sustained period of time, But if it does go on for weeks, then we don't get some of the economic data, then it could actually start hurting the economy. But I think this is just sort of noise. But I think the punchline here from a fiscal perspective is this effectively funds of government at the same levels as last year, and what we're not We're not going to see any more physical stimulus. And I think the threshold for any sort of stimulus, even if we do go into recession. I know your previous guest was pretty sang one about the economy. I think we maybe we as as bond investors, are a little less so, but the threshold for any sort of fiscal stimus is going to be very high. So we think the government probably will be funded probably at the last moment, but again from a market's perspective, we're not sure. We're there's more noise than really anything. It's always the way, isn't it. Equities, hopes and dreams, bonds, fares and nightmassy do you know? Yeah, obviously obviously, Well yeah, thank you, thanks, good to see it. Great to catch you out let me cant with their Pimcoke. I'm pleased to say that John, I guess now is Elliot Akerman, the US Marine Corps veteran and former White House fellow. Ali wonderful to hear from you, sir. Always appreciate your perspective and your deep experience. Let's start with that experience. Can you describe for our audience the type of urban combat taking place right now, the urban commet that we're seeing in Gaza. You know, it's that happens really at a very close quarters, you know, street by street, house by house, room to room. As I think I've said on this show, eating in an urban fight is like it's like being in a knife fight in a phone booth. So it also takes away that the advantage that high tech militaries have, and I think we're seeing that play out and also oftentimes it's very very messy. And one of the greatest casualties in an urban fight is the city that the fight is taking place. And I think we're seeing that today as you know, vast parts of Gaza are are being turned to rubble and the civilians who lived there. So let's discuss that, given the type of combat that was seeing at the moment, how on earth do you prevent the tragic loss of civilian life we've seen. You know, It's extremely difficult, and that factors into the into the calculus on on both sides. A fundamental to you know, Hamas's attack on October seventh was they knew that they were going to force the Israeli's hands to fight them inside Gaza, which would lead to civilian casualties, which would lead to much more attention being placed in the Palestinian cause in the world, and also a significant international outcry to and the fighting. And so, you know, I think the one thing that we can see when we're looking at what is going on in Gaza is that, at least thus far, it would seem that it has preceded exactly according to Hamas's plan. Given that Elliott how much longer. Do you think that Israel has from a political perception standpoint as well as just their own aims before they're going to stop. You know, the aims of the Israeli government, as they've articulated, is the complete annihilation of Hamas. I think one of the things that's difficult is that's an extremely high bar to completely destroy a terrorist organization, as opposed to degrade its capabilities or make it so it's no longer a threat. So if that is their stated objective, I think they're in some ways probably setting themselves up for failure because it's difficult to see how they are going to completely destroy every single number of Hamas from the face of the earth, particularly as many of them are not in Gaza, you know. And the other issue that complicates factors that we can't forget about is there's a significant number of hostages still inside Gaza, so the Israelis can't finish this operation until those hostages have been freed. So, unfortunately, I think this is going to go on quite a bit longer, but every day that it extends, it becomes politically much more costly for the Israelis. Do you agree with Secretary of Defense to late Austin when he basically said that the fear here is that Israel setting itself up for a strategic defeat. I think that is certainly. I don't know that they are going to end up in a strategic defeat, but I think if the Israelis lose sight of the fact that war is always fought on two planes, both the tactical of the operational, what's happening on the ground, you know, how much of Gods is being taken or retaken, but also the political, how those actions are perceive and so you know, history is littered with cases of nations and armies that won the battle but lost the war. And I think the Israelis need to be very mindful that they don't place themselves in that situation. And we've been through a period of really intense diplomacy. We've seen that over the last two months, how elevated. Still, do you think the odds are they brought a conflict in the region. I think they've certainly lessened, but I think we absolutely want to keep our eye on any actions it seems that they could spread the conflict. You know, as you know, the United States, as you know, a very significant military presence there. We've surged naval assets into the Mediterranean Sea, all signaling very strongly to the Iranians not to spread this conflict or engage in those actions. But we've also seen simultaneously that the Iranians have been attacking US forces abroad, that there are many instances of provocation, and not only our leaders but also our troops on the ground had to be very very mindful that their actions could have TGIC consequences. So I don't think it does not seem as though the conflict is going to spread, but it's still on a hair trigger. This is a conversation about a direct conflict. I just wonder, from your perspective, in your opinion, Elio, whether you think we're already in a proxy war with Iran. I think we certainly are. But we've been in a proxy war with Iran for for decades now, and it is just waxed and waned. I mean, I mean, I'm a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both those conflicts we were fighting a proxy war with Iran, and about those conflicts, you know, so the American service member I was, you know, having to dodge IEDs built by Iran and having to deal with Coudes Force paramilitaries who are operating or Iranian in those theaters. So we've been fighting that war for a long long time. But it's very important that as you know, you know, it doesn't escalate into an all out conflagration across the Middle East, particularly as we have another war going on in Ukraine. So these are you know, these are dangerous times where they I'm glad you brought that up as a former American service member, as someone who's actually served and seeing the threat, what is your sense of this increasing isolationism or the increasing fight over funding for some of these conflicts. Do you think that it's a valid one or do you think that that's really our retracement from the role that you served for. Because I think that there should always be robust debate in this country about issues of war and peace, and I think that is very very healthy. However, I also think that, you know, those debates should occur in a functional as opposed to a dysfunctional way. They should occur in a way that has a very clear eyed or it takes a very clear eyed view of the world beyond our shores and isn't naive of the place of America in the world. So, you know, I don't think it's inappropriate for members of Congress to be debating how long and how much the United States is going to spend on these wars. But I also think if there's some of idea that the US can just retreat within its borders and that's going to be the best interest of this country. I mean, you know, we've seen that, we've seen that play out before, and it doesn't play out to the best interests of the United States. You're implying, Elliott that the debate right now is not healthy. What would a healthy debate look like? And why is what we're seeing right now not healthy? So I think there's a degree of brenksmanship that's going on. And I think that braksmanship of you know, buying aid packages together the much of the dysfunction that we've seen them in Congress where we no longer where Congress no longers exists with the culture, and I'm olding to remember this culture in which most people operated under a mode of that you know, America's differences ended at our shores, and we projected ourselves abroad, we projected ourselves as a unified country. I mean, now we know that our allies, you know, have different you know, they prefer republican or a democratic administration and have policies that they set for both. So I think there's the overall fractiousness in our country is hurting the efficacy of our foreign policy. So that's what I mean, Ellie, thank you, sir Vio Clarity, Ellie Aikman. I'm the latest on the situation in the Middle East and with Ukraine and rest as well. I'm so pleased to say. Joining me right now is David Rubinstein. I want to pick up on that point that Bill was saying, which is his activism as now not in a corporate boardroom but on college campuses. And we heard this yesterday from Mark Rowan of Apollo. How much you hearing that increasingly from some of your peers. Well, there's no doubt that Bill Ackman doesn't need to be an activist in investing anymore, because, as he said in the interview, he wasn't that well known when he was an activist, and therefore he had to get attention, and doing activist kind of things got people's attention. Now he's pretty well known, so he can avoid that part of his investing process. In terms of College and Harvard, he has been very active with his letter to Clouding Gay and Mark Rowan has been very active at Penn as well, and a number of other business people have been active. There's no doubt that there's a lot of concern in the business but other communities about what's going on in college campuses. And as we all know, it's not a pleasant situation to be Jewish student in some campuses these days, or to be a Muslim student some campus has been a problem as well. So I don't think there's a perfect answer. We're not going to solve it overnight. It's going to take some time for all these colleges to kind of figure out what the right balance is. Do you get a sense that there is something specific that people are asking for that goes beyond a statement on anti Semitism or Islamophobia and goes more to the nature of conversation at certain universities. Well, at certain universities, I would say on the left, far left are far right. There's not a lot of room for people who disagree. Some campuses are far left, some are maybe more conservative, and people who disagree with the conventional or the majority view, don't get the kind of support that they might want to receive from the college presidences or universities. In some cases, Harvard is seen by people in Congress who said yesterday in the hearing that is seen as far left. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I was on the board of Harvard for many years, and I think Harvard tries to do the best it can. But it's a very large campus, very diverse. The president of university has done as good a job as she can in a very short period of time dealing with these issues, but nobody is going to be able to solve this problem overnight. You're also on the University of Chicago board, and full disclosure, I attended there, so if I'm biased, I just want to be completely transparent. There is this question about whether it's appropriate for a university to take a stand at all on any social issue, or just to let the individual professors and students have their own voices rather than have some sort of collective voice that you have to stay within. Do you think that that is the way to go well? With the same issue CEO's face, Should corporations be taking positions on these kind of issues. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Universities are places where young people are generally allowed to grow and experience what life is going to be about when they leave campuses, and they tend to be sometimes more shrill and certain things they might be when they become an adult. I think at the Universe Chicago, we've had a long standing one hundred year policy of basically letting people say what they want, has provided that they don't do anything that harms anybody else or incites violence. But there's been a lot of free speech at univer Chicago, and I think that's a great tradition there. Do you think that going forward there's going to be any change in response to some of the pressure, Given the pressure that we have seen now, I suspect something will happen, but I don't know that Congress will do anything. I think the university boards are probably going to be more sensitive to these issues. There is going to be more security for certain students there, for sure, But I think there'll be more of a move towards a University of Chicago approach where more people are allowed to say what they think without feeling that if they say something that's unpopular. They'll be criticized or harmed physically. Just besides this particular issue with Bill Lackman, he's also been vocal about investing in treasures just to shift a little bit to the investment side. And I am curious if you're starting to hear this more that certain hedge funds that maybe are struggling to get an edge in public markets are just making bull trades on the path of interest rates. How much you're hearing that well. Bill Ackman said in the interview is that he doesn't generally doesn't make big macro bets. That's not what he generally does. He generally makes bets on companies. But in a couple of times in his history he has made macro bets and some have worked out extremely well. And he's made one not two year long ago, where he made a couple of billion dollar I mean, I guess it was a two billion dollar profit on a relatively modest investment in a relatively short period of time. That's hard to do. This time, he's made a bet, in effect, that the treasury rate will go down, or the interest rate will go down, the Fed will lower interest rates sooner than the conventional wisdom thinks, and I assume he's structured it so that if they do, he'll make a fair amount of money. And I'm assuming that right now he's pretty happy with what he's seeing because the market's coming along to his view. Conventional wisdom today is that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates sooner than maybe people thought a month ago. Right now, I think the Fed doesn't want to get into the election season, So if they're going to cut rates, they're probably not going to do it too close to the presidential election, so they probably would have to do it sooner. Meanwhile, just want to bring this to you. Just Breaking City Group is reporting some figures and what they expect, and they say that fourth quarter trading revenue is expected to drop fifteen to twenty percent compared to the third quarter, and you can see as the CFO does talk, you can see shares falling. This really does speak to this sense that there isn't going to be the same kind of opportunity to make profits for some of these firms as there has been earlier in this year. That basically this is what they're going to pitch when they CEOs go down to Washington, DC and start saying, you know, maybe we earned record profits, but we're going to lose it to people like you, David Rubens, sign at private credit and private equity. What do you make of some of these arguments. I'm not worrying too much about the large banks. They can take care of themselves. I'm sure they'll do well. Interest rates go up or down. There's no doubt when interest rates go up, they tend to make more money. Historically, if interest rates go down, they're very smart. They'll find other ways to make money. Private equity firms and private credit firms have done quite well generally over the last ten twenty years or so, and we have a lot of very smart people. We'll try to figure out how to navigate whatever interest rate environment we have. David Rubenstein, it's always a pleasure. Thank you so much for being on. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern, on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee 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Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says that signs of a recession will come from the market, not the Fed. Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, expects central banks to introduce digital currencies amid disarray in the crypto sector. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Senior Equity Analyst, says AI can take the relationship between banks and technology to another level. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says she's concerned about the risk-on rally in the bond market. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war amid the release of more hostages from Gaza. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Cameron Dawson tear eyed over the quality of that data. Check Cio of New Edge Wealth joining us right now. What's your conviction the next year? I'm talking about you need to get conviction. Now, do you have a lot of conviction? I think that we have to judge as we go into the end of the year when we look at where we in the year with positioning and sentiment and valuations and earnings expectations, because if we get to a point where those things are stretched, where people have been drawn into the market, everybody chases the market into a rallying to the year end, that's when you probably want to start asking questions of how sustainable or durable is We learned that lesson really powerfully this year in the opposite direction. People were underweight, valuations had come in, positioning was very light, and that set up for a very powerful year this year. One really difficult thing for a lot of people is to get two things right. Won the call on the economy and to what the economy means for financial markets. I was looking at Deutsche Bank's call yesterday least when I were going back and forth on this, They've got recession one hundred and seventy five basis points of cuts. Then bink chat is saying fifty one hundred on the SMP. Is good news bad news? Or is bad news good news? What is it? I mean, it's sort of that I want it all and I want it now kind of mentality, which is that I want a FED that's supportive, and I want an economy and earnings that are going to be growing very strongly. And I have to think that we need to ask the question of if a strong economy and strong earnings are consistent with having FED rate cuts and a recession, and if we can have both at the same time, meaning that if the FED is cutting rates, can we really grow earnings at twelve percent next year? Do we actually have the potential that we could have a third year in a row of earnings being closer to flat. If we have a recession. Well, this is John Sulfis basically saying people think we're late cycle, we're actually mid cycle. That if the Federal cuts rates is just sort of a mechanical year over year trying to adapt restrictiveness to inflation, and that that will pave the way for companies to continue to evolve, particularly in the consumer cyclicals. Thoughts. Yeah, it's interesting. You go back to the times when the Fed cut rates and we didn't have a recession ninety five, ninety eight, and twenty nineteen. What's interesting is that the Fed was actually very fearful of a recession in each of those times. They talked about the US not being an island. What's interesting is that the market wasn't scared of a recession. There was no impact to earnings. You had the market hitting all time highs as they were cutting rates. So I think we have to take the cue from the market if it starts to sniff out that data is weakening, that data is starting to come in where we need to be cutting earnings stents we don't hit all time highs in markets, that's when you'd say maybe recession risk is actually higher. So what's your conviction is it to basically shift away from the conviction of everybody else that equities are going to go higher and to take the other side. I think it's incredibly important to remain invested even in times of uncertainty, and the way that we do that is focusing on quality, focusing on companies that can block and tackle, which just means that I want to take out the risk that the economy is going to roll over and I'm going to have big earnings downside. But I also don't want to be over levered. I don't want to be overextended on risk having to have the best case scenario in order for my investments to work. So it's still that middle ground. It's worked really well this year, it likely works really well next year as well, as we think we are still in that late cycle environment. What's so interesting to me is the idea of developing a conviction with five percent money market fund trillions out there. Is part of your optimism of that money shifts given disinflation yields? Yeah, you know, it's a really good question. If all the money market funds is truly investible cap not all, but even at the margin that supports the bid. And we do know that investors compared to the twenty twenty two peak are about three percent less allocated to equities than they were at the peak and twenty twenty two looking at the AAII data, so that would suggest that there is still money on the sidelines, that there still is positioning to be drawn back in. And the good news is that there's cash, there's liquidity. In order to do that, we'll have to continue to watch that data because once people get fully invested, this is critical. I don't mean to interrupt, but you've nailed it. Three percent as the delta here from AAI or whatever it is, AARP, whatever. But the answer is if that money shifts and makes up the three percent difference, what does that do in SMP or Dell points, Well, it likely means that we can continue the rally, But then it calls into question the durability of the rally. Do we test the twenty twenty two high, do we break through it with gusto and really have the kind of rally that we saw coming out of time like twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, or instead, do we have this sideways chop that looks a lot more like what we experienced in the seventies or even in the two thousands. And it's Chris Harvey is talking about did you just request a down forecast? I did, just busting this. You have a down forecast? Absolutely not. I'm sorry. That was beautiful. Do you want to explain why you don't have a down forecast because it's a price weighted index? Thank you, Cameron Tak Is that enough? Jar Denney SPX five thousands, forty one thousand on the show clip that? I mean, honestly, you guys just gonnatrol each other all morning beautiful. And I said, the perfect ending to this exchange was very good. You know it was great. It was very good. Camera. Thank you. It's going to see it. Cameron Dawson, I knew ittch Wealth, welcome back anytime. I'm going to play this off my book of the year years ago, Ken rog I was very courageous, The Curse of Cash. He's writing about where we are with digital currencies, what the Bank of International Settlements in Geneva thinks, what Central Bank says. He was at the New York Fed. Thanks. Bill Dudley joins us right now writing an important column on c B d C central bank digital currencies, Bill Dudley, very valuable and thought provoking. This morning, we just saw criminal trials, guilty verdicts, maybe appeals involved. But are we getting away from the presumed criminality, the punishment, the secrecy that Ken Rogoff had the courage to talk about. Well, I think that the crypto space is in disarray right now, and the real question now is our central banks around the world going to introduce central bank digital currencies to sort of take up that slack. I think that's going to happen, probably going to be more evolutionary than revolutionary, because it depends on what payment system that you're starting with. I think we're central bank digital currencies could play a very very important role. This is highlighted a new paper that we put out by the brent Witz Committee is really on cross border payments. We had a system of central bank digital currencies where the interfaces were harmonized, you could probably execute payments on a cross border basis at a fraction of the cost. Today, for a lot of migrant workers when they're sending their payments abroad, it costs over five percent of the value of the payment just to execute the trade. It's very slow. So we can certainly do a lot better than than we're doing right now now in this process. The FIT is very far far behind in terms of their work on central bank digital currencies, and in the US there's a quite a bit of skepticism about the need for central bank digital currencies. Why is this work continue? Well, that's so hard of the matter. I'm going to go to Raphael Our owns a high ground on this at BIS. He's documented the incredible friction of transactions in the real world. We all thought we'd be trading bitcoin and you know, John would be down at Selene trading bitcoin for a sweater, but the answers were not. We could really get down to where this is efficacious for central banks. We could really squeeze us down to where there's no transactional friction. Well, that'll obviously always give a little bit of transactional friction, but we can do a lot better than we're doing right now. I mean, in central bank digital currencies should be a pretty significant improvement over cash. I'll be just the safest cash, but in terms of the fault risk, because you'll be guaranteed by the sovereign nation, but you don't have worries about storage. You can transact with digital cash across long distances, So to me, it's like cash plus it's superior to cache and something that we the US should start to innovate on. There's a concern bill that as you disintermediate banks, essentially those agents that really capitalize from those frictions that exist, that some of the functioning of markets that traditionally has supported things like treasuries starts to ebb away. How concerned are you as you start to adopt new, less friction build methods and as capital markets slow in the wake of rate hikes, how much does that really disintermediate banks that really are still essential for the functioning of the treasury market. It really depends on central bank digital currency design, and I think there you want to have a two tier system where the banks continue to own the customer relationships. Central banks don't want to have customer relationships with hundreds of millions of households, so they should hand that off to the banking system. The second thing you want to do is make sure that the central bank digital currency doesn't pay interest. If it doesn't pay interest, it's basically going to be used for payments, not for investment, So that preserves the role of the central of commercial banks as intermediaries. So I think if you do those two things essentially protect that the commercial banking system is providing financial intermediation services, but the central bank helps provide a better payments medium. The reason why I ask is on a broader sense away from digital currencies, is there is increasing concern about how much of the risk taking activity and how much, frankly, of financial market functioning has moved outside of the highly regulated banks into the private sector. Earlier this morning, UBAS chair Clem Kelliher came out warning again that there's a bubble in private markets and that there's risks building there as an increasing amount of lending moved to that area. Are you concerned about that? Do you think that there is this sort of situation forming on the heels of rate hikes, on the heels of the more tightly regulated banks that deserves greater scrutiny. Absolutely? I think this notion that all we need to do to fix the problems that we saw in March of twenty twenty in the banking system is to appile a lot higher capal requirements on the largest banks. I think that's misguided. Increase the cabal requirements on the biggest banks, You're just going to push activity out into the non regulated banking sector, and that's going to make the financial system less secure, more unstable than the current regime. So I think we need to think really hard about what were the problems in March twenty twenty and how to address them. Bill, thanks for catching out with us. Give us an your view on that built outly the former New York Fed President Lie So this is joy. Why don't you bring in mister Mayo here because he's all AI in bankings, which makes me very happy actually because Thanksgiving dinners several of them. All of the discussion was about artificial intelligence. Mike Mayo focused on artificial intelligence as well, saying that it's not just going to be in big tech, it's also going to be in banks that you need to have AI talent at the financial institution, saying the marriage of banks with tech, including AI, is a long term positive that can help the industry trend toward record efficiency. Joining us now is the one and only Michael Mayo, Mike, thank you so much for being with us. So tell us just how much banks could benefit at a time where people have written them off as utilities that are overspending and are not going to make big returns. Well, if you're a bank and don't have an AI strategy, then you don't have a strategy because if the bank across the street has calculators or spreadsheets or Bloomberg terminals, yes, and you don't have those, then how are you going to compete? So AI is here to stay. The marriage of banks and tech has been a good one. It's stalled recently, but I think AI can rekindle that relationship by taking the productivity benefits which have been revenues per employee have improved by one third over the last decade. So banks and tech have been working, but I think AI can take that to another level. Is it a kind of thing where there'll be a few winners you mentioned Golias Mike Mayo in your noe is a kind of thing where four or five will win and the rest lose? Or can it actually be a benefit distributed across the industry? Well, I think most jobs at banks will be impacted. I mean, think of what I do. I'm an analyst, and analysis can be improved by this extra tool called a Now I do think there will always be a human in the loop for most cases. In other words, to prepare for your show today, Lisa and Tom, I went to chat GPT and said, what should I say in one sentence about this? And they said it's a revolution that will enable productivity, savings and better customer service. Well that's an improval. Well that's an improved starting point. But you know it's partly wrong. First, I'm not sure it's a revolution, especially at banks. It tends to be more of an evolution, and simply by enabling that potential doesn't mean that becomes a reality. And you've seen false starts cloud, You've had some buyers remorse. Blockchain didn't come out as quickly as expected. You know the dot com bubble one point. Oh, Tom, you remember all these Internet pollows which didn't survive. So I'm positive on the implications of AI, but I also I'm aware of the cast come back even further. George Ball E. F. Hutton. They blew it. They couldn't keep up on technology. This is Lisa. When there were cards with holes in them and a thing called Fortran. The answer is I want to know who the losers are going to be in this. I mean, I know you've got single best buys in all this, but what is the scale of the losers that you see in technology and banking three to five years out. Well, I do think Goliath is winning, and you have this poll by Evident. I know they've had the founders on your show. In fact, they have an all day conference in New York City tomorrow. So JP Morgan is number one front and center right now and their investment in technology are paying off. I'm surprised to see City Group in the top ten for all their issues with their back office, and they have major issues. They're making some efforts with AI. On the other hand, those banks that have not advanced with digitization and the cloud and getting their data together could struggle. And I do wonder about some of these mid sized banks. I mean, do they have the scale to really leverage these solutions and getting talent. Talent is such a big issue and you can't just buy talent off shelf. You can get solutions, but who's actually going to implement those solutions in each business line? So when I'm listening to you, I'm thinking how much are they're going to pay them. I mean, we're talking about open AI paying eight hundred thousand dollars to engineers at just at of a base level. I mean, how much your bank's going to have to pay some of this talent to come to their bank and develop similar solutions that can effectively support and reduce certain headcount in certain areas well. I think what you'll see is you'll see a reduction in headcount and some of those savings plowed back into paying other employees more money, especially AI engineers. They're in serious demand. But if you go to one of the largest banks, you have a whole career path. You can scale these solutions across tens of millions of customers as opposed to going to a smaller bank. I mean, what's your pitch. Now? There are some smaller banks in this evidence survey that performed quite well because they were already ahead on technology. So I think those winning in technology can keep winning more and those that are behind are going to have to have kind of a existential moment here. This can all work if banks have the cash to invest right and that sort of you put a pause on that at a time when potentially there could be a slow down and there could be some kind of reduction in revenues tied to slowing capital markets how much I understand this is a longer term call, but how much do you see a thawing in that kind of environment next year versus a tightening and the screws I mean, this is sort of one of the big disagreements for the backdrop for banks and capital markets activity at a time where yields are still high, but we also are potentially going to start seeing the effects of that. Well, I promise you I will be the first analyst to ask that question or earnings calls. If banks are spending too much money. Banks have no choice because of the headwinds from rates, recession possibility, and regulation. They must get more efficient. So if I'm the CEO of any bank and you're coming to me with the program for AI and want to invest a lot of money, I'd say, great, where are you saving the money to fund that? Nobody cares. All we want to know from Mike Mayo is what to do this year? Twelve months out, twelve months ago now flat on its back. We've had a magnificent seven moonshot right now. Keith briat Indexes twenty five percent above the pandemic low. Is this the year twenty twenty four of the banks? Do you load the boat here on banking? Well, look, the long arc of the benefits of the industry de risking has still yet to play out. Banks didn't get credit through the pandemic. The excuse was the government stimulus. Right now, you had some smaller regional banks fail earlier this year, so it's still delayed. So I still think over the next two to three years you see the benefit of the improved banking industry resiliency play out, and then they aren't as risky as perceived and they re rate at least back to historical And then the bigger question is longer term for the rerate above. Now, it's not immediate tom. I think as you get further out, you get better inflection points when it comes to banks, bread revenues, interest rates, effects, monetizing that capital markets backlog, and more clarity on regulation, which is a very big issues. Still, just real quick, just to follow up on the AI, what is the right AI investment? Is it getting some sort of application to write your reports for you. Is it being able to collate data from your customers to basically prescribe what they're going to do or want. What's the correct way. There's no one size fits off when it comes to AI investments. It's about banks tailoring those AI investments to their use cases that they have that's unique to them. So I find interesting anything related to compliance, fraud, cyber that's where you're seeing some really low hanging fruit early benefits. I think when it comes to some additional automation in the back office. I love what it can do for technology, the idea of Cobyl program change to Python, change to c plus plus, the ability to change archaic code. And by the way, most or almost all large banks still are advertising for Cobyl programmers. Tom, why are you killing me? By my first programming class at punch cards too so fourteen Yeah, what were that? Ancient? Lisa is like, what are they talking about? Single? Best buy ten seconds, JP Morgan and City Group. I had said, Okay, Barbell approach, Barbell approached, Mike Mayol, thank you so much, as WILLI s Fargo, Kati Kaminski, Chief Investments, trying to just to Alpha Simplex joins us now Katie the journey the low on a tenure yield back in twenty twenty in spring fifty basis points the high over the last couple of months through five percent. It paid to be short this bond market. You have been short, but the turnaround in the last couple of months has been brutaled the other way. We've come from five percent down to four forty on a ten year Katie, you've been short. Are you still short? And if you are, why, Yes, still short? But that has to do with different signals having different views. Take a look at the chart for the year. If you look at the year chart, the last month has been a miraculous turnaround relative to where we've come. So we're still way ahead of where we began the year, even prior to what happened in post what happened in the regional banking crisis. And so I think the key question to ask yourself about bonds right now is where are we going next? We have been looking all year for a distant version of the curve, and we got that in October, and the next point is still really uncertain. Are we moving to a steeper curve and if so, which way? Or are we just going to move around and sort of a range until we figure out what's actually happening with the Fed, Katie, Why is it not as simple as taking a look at the economic data coming out showing that it is disappointing much more frequently than it is outperforming, and just sort of leaning into that which the rest of the market seems to be doing. This is a good question, because really what I find the most concerning about the last month is there's been a massive has gone rally on weaker economic data, and that to me is sort of a relief rally from where we've come, because we've been through a lot, particularly in bonds, and so I think most people are buying right now because they're saying, if we see cuts soon, then we know that yields are going to come down. My concern is that it could take a lot longer than people think, pointing out that inflation is still way above target, or at least one percent above target, so we could take a year or so to get there. People are very quick to think that things are over when they take time to actually get through the system. Katie, we're setting up for the new year. I want to go back to the advent of all this, and this is trend based studies, and it's Andrew Low the giant, and you know, working with Elf Simplex and Wells Wilder and Monroe Trout, John Henry and the rest and the Germaine question twenty years ago is the same today. If you look at trend based studies or the complexity of trend based setups, are they elegant right now? Is the math good or are you blind? Well? Turning points are notoriously difficult for trend following. It's because we're not really set up to pick the tops and bottoms of big moves. And what happens in these turning points is we have to figure out using math, where is the next step of the trend. And that's where right now is an inflection point. And I'm looking forward to see if we can actually see that steeper curve. And when we've done historical analysis, what you do see is flat curves or steepening of curves. Is very difficult for trend signals because it's moving. Everything's moving, so it's a stochastic environment and you've got to find a new trend. What is the key attribute for our listeners and viewers to establish the trend? Well, I think the key thing that we always think about as trend followers. We try to blend different views. So right now, the long term view is still cautious. The shorter term view is very very optimistic, And if you combine those two together, you're really sitting in a situation now where we need more data and we need more time to understand where the market's going next. And that's why I think the market is so focused on every data point that comes out, because we're trying to sift through which view is correct. Is there a new trend, have we moved to a new era, a new phase of the of the curve shift, or are we still sort of treading water trying to figure that out. Time is expensive for shorts, and that's something that we have seen play out again and again. How much are some of the short positions being washed out adding to the rally? The stability that we've seen in bond yields over the past week and something that you think maybe can't last, Yes, of course, but I think there's a lot. There's been plenty of shorts this year, especially last year as well. When you think about where we've gone, we definitely need a balance between shorts and longs in this market. We have seen more buying pressure recently, which has been of perhaps causing some deceleration or deleveraging in short positions. But from the trend space, that's a strategy that's much more slow moving than some that you might be discussing. But there are definitely potential that some people are unwinding shorts as well. Hey Kitty, thanks for the update. Still short on this bomb market, Keady Commitski of Alpha Simplex. We take immense pride and I'm talking for the wonderful team we have working twenty four seven of giving you people of experience as we look at the horrific war in the Eastern Mediterranean. We've been advantaged by Norman Rule to say he's a former senior US intelligence official at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, barely describes his public service to the nation. Mister Roland, I want to cut to the chase here my amateur reading of fiction. Is it a ceasefire? Is an intelligence opportunity? Is this ceasefire good for the Israelis to develop intelligence in Gaza? Good morning, and you are absolutely correct. Keep in mind that the Israelis have a variety of means of intelligence. They must ingest a preasent. Prisoner interrogations take quite a while. Laptops have thousands of pages of data that must be reviewed, and you're looking to identify locations of individuals, hiding sites, weapons capacities, movement profiles, so that your troops can then use this as they plan operations when hostilities resume. So this is indeed probably one of the busiest periods for Israeli and partner intelligence. Does their military effort on a longer cease fire? Well, their military right now is supportive of the hostage release. They are concerned obviously that they allowed hostages to be taken and there because of the failure of October seventh, and this period is allowing that innocent Israelis are returning home, but that does not undermine their commitment to eradicating Hamas. Do we understand Have they articulated an endgame? Norman, No, And I think it may be a bit unfair to even think about what an endgame may be. So let me give you a give you an example. We are, in some ways in the easiest period of hostage negotiations. Once the negotiations turned to Israeli soldiers or men, you're going to see Hamas perhaps demand a lot more from the Israelis, the Israelis are unlikely to give, and therefore this could extend the hostage negotiations far longer than Israel could permit. And also we're looking at a period of time when the American presence among the hostages remains significant. Only one American has been released, likely because Hamas wishes to keep American political pressure on Israel. So it may well be that Americans may not be released in the initial period. There's something that you've said that I'd like you to explain to our audience. You said it's important not to confuse procedural hangups with strategic differences on hostage releases. Can you just go through what that actually means, Norman. In the early days of hostage negotiations, you've got issues such as how do you bring hostages to a safe location, exactly which hostage is going to be released, and what that particular group holding the hostages feels about their loss of that influence. And then on the Israeli side, you've got prisoners who have committed in some cases quite horrific acts, and the families of the individuals behind those sentences are going to be unhappy about the release. So you're going to have a process of working through this. But it doesn't mean that each side in this issue isn't interested in the release and the ceasefire. In fact, all sides involved Hamas, Israel, the United States, Qutar, they all benefit from a ceasefire and hostage release. Norman, can you just elaborate on the different factions within the Hamas group that are holding hostages and why they might be reluctant to release certain hostages. How this is sort of playing out in a political sphere over in Gaza. Well, we not only have different factions among the Palestinians, primarily Hamas, palestin Islamis Shihad criminal groups that may have taken hostages and seek to sell them to their own Palestinian partners, but we also have a communications problem. Imagine if you are these various groups and you know the Israelis are looking for your communications and looking for your movements, how do you exchange the data and conduct those intra Palestinian negotiations just to get that process going. It's a very complicated situation. What do you expect Tony Blinken to do on his latest tour of the region. We're always going to push for some sort of continued pressure on Hamas to release not only hostages, but to think about how they would consider a day after event. There's been very little actual crystallization of what day after means. You may have anything from an international police presence to Hamas thinking it can still survive because it will retain hostages for a period of time. And these talks are ongoing among all the various partners, and perhaps most important here are going to be the Saudist because they're leading such a large portion of the Islamic the Islamic world in Israel. It's really to make sure that he has a sense of where the coalition is in terms of resumption of hostilities and how Natanya, who is handling the various hostage debates within his own government. Norman role Aaron David Miller with us yesterday was just brilliant, and how this is not nineteen sixty seven, if that is true, and if there's not going to be a Camp David visit, a Camp David accord. Whatever our memory is of normal diplomatic ties, what do you presume will be the administration's approach to finding some kind of accord. Where are we a year from now, two years from now? Very difficult to think forward. First, you've got to identify which partners are going to show up for a camp David's style agreement meeting. I mean, think about it. Will Benjamin Netanyahu survive in his current political situation? It's stoutful. Who is going to be the leader of the Palestinians? Abu Mazen Mahammuda Bass, the head of the Palestine Authority is eighty eight years old. There will be no hamas presidents at the table. So who do you bring to the table that those entities don't actually exist at present? That's a massive question. Norman has tried to get your for you, it always says no one. Roll of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen and this is Bloomberg,See 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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy,  says the path for equities is higher in 2024. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, breaks down record-high Black Friday sales. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management, says the Fed's rate policy is leading to a gradual slowdown.  Steve Schwarzman, Chairman & CEO of Blackstone Inc., says his firm has seen a bevy of buying opportunities in real estate across Europe. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin the program with Lori Cavasina, head of US ecority Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Lori, good morning. We hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I want to kick off with your call fifty one hundred for five thousand rather year rent on the s and P five hundred for next year Deutsche Bank going one further, a fifty one hundred, Lurie talk to us about the path to five k. Well, thanks for having me as always, and look, you know we purposefully did not put out you know, we see a near term pullback and a resurgence. I think a lot of people got caught in that trap in twenty twenty three calling for a near term pullback in the first quarter that didn't end up happening. I do think we'll be watching our sentiment indicator very closely. It's been the best star in the sky to navigate the equity market this year, but it's also round tripped a couple of times. It started out giving you a screaming by signal because of deep pessimism. Return to that post. SBB gave a sales signal in August and then gave a by signal again in November. So I think we're going to have to just be very tactical in that. You know, I have been telling people November is very consistently a strong month, but December is a little bit more hit or miss. So we'll see if we end up getting the Santa or Grinch in December. But I do think the path for equities is higher next year, and if we do have a bit of a short term pullback either in December to start the year, I expect it to be temporary. Llurie Goldman Sachs had a note thanks zero Edge for this on sales girls looking out two years twenty three, twenty four to twenty five and the difference between them magnificent seven with eleven percent sales grows versus the SPX four ninety three of three percent sales growth. Why would anybody sell the magnificent seven right now? I think it's a great question, Tom. When we look at our indicators and we look at the megacap growth trade broadly, it looks crowded. If you look at the weekly CFTC data on Nasdaq one hundred futures positioning, we're basically close to peak valuation and growth relative to value. If you look at the rustle one thousand on a weighted PE multiple, which is going to be very heavily influenced by that magnificent seven. And if you look at earning's momentum, we're still seeing better earnings revision trends and growth and value, but value is starting to catch up a little bit, so we are seeing that leadership on the earning side fade a little bit. All of that tells me that there should be a pause in growth leadership at some point. But I think one of the reasons people can't really permanently quit these growth stocks is kind of hitting on exactly what you said, the idea that there will be superior growth there over the intermediate term. And if you look at GDP forecasts for next year one percent in real terms anticipated by the street one point eighty percent in twenty twenty five. When we're in a sub two percent GDP environment, growth stocks usually do outperform because economic growth is perceived to be scarce. So I do think there is a real tension. You know, we still like the tech sector even though we have these shorter term tactical concerns on growth, had those tactical concerns on growth frankly for a while, and they've yet to really materialize in a big way. And I do feel like you may need to see a real ratcheting up of GDP expectations before you can really see growth loose some of that leadership dominance. When you talk about sentiment and how really that's been the loadstone for you, it's figuring out where is investor sentiment em betting against it? Am I correct? Basically? You know, one of the things I've learned over my career, Lisa, is that when everybody is really really pessimistic, that's usually a fantastic time to buy. If you look at when the AAII net bullishness indicator is, you know, sort of one standard deviation or two standard deviations below the long term average. I forget the exact stat, but it's in the eighties in terms of the percent of time that you're up twelve months later. And you see similar stats if you look on the flip side when people are overly enthusiastic. Now, if you're above one standard deviation on extreme optimism, you still tend to see like a five percent gain over the next twelve months. So it's not necessarily a washout, but it does tell you that you tend to see consolidation. You do tend to see some choppier markets, And I think that's why it's so important, Lisa to really prioritize data over narratives. I know a lot of strategists like to tell a great story and then they go out and put together their charts to try to fit whatever narrative they're pushing out there. But I really think that you have to stick to the data, and things like that centiment indicator will keep you into falling into consensus traps. Again, everybody just sort of gloms onto the same narrative and things get too extreme. Well, the narrative that we've been hearing again and again is five thousand on the SMP going into next year at least, if not more, And there has been a sort of boom and optimism that we've seen. Does that mean it's time to start taking some chips off the table and to be a little bit less optimistic or does this mean that finally you might see some of that cash at record levels going into the equity market. Well, it's interestingly so you know, everybody wants to sort of talk about this idea, and this is maybe on the more barish side of the table that bonds look more attractive than stocks and the earning shield has collapsed relative to the bond yield, and all that is true, But if you actually go back, there have been periods in history when equity investors or investors in general have taken up both their equity allocations and their bond allocations at the same time. So I don't think it's unheard of for both to do. Well, you know, five thousand, it's starting to be a number we're hearing a lot. I think we were maybe the second person on the cell side that had it when we put ours out, but you are starting to hear about it. And I think ten percent is usually a reasonable place that a lot of strategists start, we do have one model that can take us up to fifty three hundred, and that's looking at our valuation work and earning's work. And I will tell you, Lisa, like and as I was putting the report together, you always think about kind of where did you go wrong in the past year. I was more optimistic than most, but not optimistic in the end. And that valuation model was the one thing that was telling me all year to look for forty seven hundred, forty eight hundred on the S and P it's pointing to forty seven hundred on the end of the year. Now twenty twenty three one point it was saying forty eight forty nine. So I do think you have to have a little bit of humility when you look at these forecasts. We look at a bunch of different models. We take the median. Some are more constructive, some are less. But I do think we do have to pay attention to that bowl case setting into next year, because so it's really what works this year? Does that mean a banner? Kelvistin says fifty three hundred. I'd like we could go there quite I think we stick with five K. I just wanted to jump in when you were putting this together. Surely five K was something like twenty percent upside of the time. So you know, John, I started back in October pricing the models, and we actually published a report in October where we said we're not going to do our target yet, but here's what all the models are showing. And back then we were getting, you know, more a little bit of a more subdued number because we had a lower starting point, so we did price everything. As of mid November, I think a lot of our models we froze as November fifteenth, November sixteenth, so we really are kind of getting sort of a true ten percent from current conditions as of mid November. Basically, when I do this, John, I go into a black hole for a few days, don't answer my phone, don't answer email, and don't talk to anybody, and update all at once. So well, welcome Bocasta the black hole, Laurie. We're happy to see you, Lori Cavasena. Obviously, Capital Markets, there's no one better to speak to on this. As if you stand at the four corners of fifty seventh Street and Fifth Avenue, the Dana Telsea is a child gazing upon Berg Dorth Goodman and across the street to Tiffany's and where Louis Vuton is now when there's some other unpronounceable I can't afford store on the other corner. Telsea joins us now CEO, chief Research officer of her Telsey Advisory Group. You got this right. A lot of people got this wrong. How did you expect this optimism that we come out of the season. Well, thank you very much for having me, and hope you guys had a great holiday. Here's I think overall, keep in mind we did have a barrage of earnings reports all talking about the cautious consumer inventory levels are lean. Promotions were in place thirty to forty That isn't outstanding, that isn't going off the rails. In terms of level of promotions, they were definitely clean. What you saw in terms of traffic, look at the Lululemons, the bathroom, body works. Macy's had more traffic than what you had at Nordstrom, and off prices like TJX had a ton of traffic. And the teen retailers picked up the reason why, value and innovation. If you add value and you had innovation, the consumer was coming So look at Uggs and Hoka where there was innovation. You look at the value on the pricing. It meant something. But we have a long season coming up now. Christmas is on a Monday. Watch that weekend before Christmas. Because procrastinators, it's their choice of when they want to spend. Just let's build them that this idea of watch what happens later in the season. Are you saying that you suspect people brought forward their shopping much more than they had in the past because they are being cautious. So the numbers are inflated to represent that more than just excessive spending altogether. Yes, I think. You look at the savings rate which has come down, You take a look at delinquencies which have gone up, and you look at what's happened with the pattern of promotions. It began in October, So with Amazon Prime Day in October their second Prime Day, you had a pull forward of what the promos were, and of course online is going to be strong. Stores are no longer open on Thanksgiving Day? So what did people do? They shop with their phone? Mobile mattered? Well, this really raises this question. Is it the modality of shopping that matters? Right now or is it the type of product mix that matters right now? And I'm curious, can you parse that up? Is it just online shopping or is it the products that people are getting online. It's the products that people are getting, and don't throw out the stores. The stores matter, the engagement that people have, the social interaction. So many companies in twenty twenty three came out with new store formats. You look at on mall and off mall, they both won and even outlets are strong. And that measure for value, where's the best total return of twelve months? You and Joe Feldman they're not on speaking terms on this, but the basic idea of which kind of retail and which individual stock is the best possibility off price I think is going to win over the next twelve months. TJ Max, would you off price? Off price? Not luxury, different world, it's off price. It's the TJ max Is of the world, the Burlington's and the Ross stores. Why they're getting the benefit of a trade down. Look at what you just saw in their results last week when they each delivered same store sales of at least five percent, when you typically these are three percent same store sales increases. They're getting the benefit of the trade down. There's been a heritage of Tjmax executing what's the secret sauce that makes them do that? The experience of their buyers. They know how to buy, They have their relationships with brands. Brands like being in their stores and they sell through and don't forget their locations. The description that you're painting of the American consumer is not that positive. It's one that is trading down. As you said, it's one that has caution that might not show up in force before that Monday Christmas. So where are we in this cycle, right? I mean, is this a matter of people running out of money or is it just them saying, well, we've been spending a lot recently. We probably should be a little more prudent. They had more money two years ago with the stimulus package during the pandemic. The load to middle income consumer is battered right now by higher interest rates. Even though inflation's moderating, it's still a higher price than it was in the past. And even you take a look at the luxury consumer, you need the feel good factor. With the geopolitical issues going on, the macro headwinds out there and the volatility the stock market, it makes it more challenging. So that's why experience. Look at the tailor swift concerts over the summer, what people are willing to spend on. Give them something innovative, they'll be there. So what does it say about the trajectory of the consumer and how people are going to be spending. Is it the beginning of more pain or is this basically the bulk of it. I think this is in the middle of the pain that we're I think the focus on essentials is right there. I think you need newness in order to drive demand. And even though the labor market continues to remain very good, the watchwords are out there and saying what's it going to look like? And inventory is cleaner, so you don't need to promote as deeply as you had in the past. Look at what's happening with the department stores. They're ordering more cautiously, and why are they ordering cautiously if they don't feel the demand is going to be there. They'd rather sell at full price than markdowns. And your most profitable markdown is your lowest markdown, not your greatest markdown. Toughest job in retail this year is a guy named Sabata Dico at Gucci absolute toughest, toughest job. Dana Telsey on what Gucci's going to do right off that corner of Fifth Avenue and fifty seventh. I think they're going more basic than they've ever been before. Absolutely, they're going away from what the idiocy was for three years. Yeah, the mismatching of the three years is all about matching now and it's about safe. They're going back back to their archives and seeing what can they reinvent and updated proof that we want that. Is there a proof that will sell to the Chinese? I think there's some proof it will sell to the Chinese, But we're not seeing the Chinese travel yet. We need them traveling to really drive demand. And don't forget you're seeing the local Europeans slow down. Also, what do you make of the buy now, Pay Later and we were hearing that it's actually picking up. Do you buy that? Do you think that this is a positive sign for the retail world or is it a negative sign that people are just basically turning to leverage. People are turning towards leverage. When buy Now, Pay Later first came out, it was a huge event. A huge development because it got younger people and frankly the millennials to spend. I think now that it's been around for a few years, if they can't pay on time, they're willing to delay and frankly be able to extend what their payment terms are. Is it changing charge cards? I mean, is buy now, pay later changing the charge card business? Not what we've seen. It didn't take off tremendously. It took off with a certain graphic and those are the millennials single best buke go. I think that it's going to be TJX. I think TJX is going to be the winner for Holiday in twenty twenty four. Dana, thank you for the brief. Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Here we have seen far too much of him. He is an expert on turmoil, war and terrorism. Aaron David Miller with a continued brief, Senior Fellow Carnegie Endowment for International Piece. Aaron, just let me just cut to the chase. If we get out to a point of negotiation from where you sit, is there a hamas to negotiate with? Now there is, and the cutteries and the Americans are validating Hamas's effectiveness. The three of you are better analysts than I am, because you've i think, identified the core questions. There's growing daylight. The world is mad at Joe Biden, even though I think frank his own party's mad at him. There's a degree twenty five years at Department of State, I've never seen, never the degree of dissension and vocal opposition to an administration's policy from inside the foreign policy and national security space. On one resignation, but an extraordinary amount of noise. I think the President Frankly handled this pretty effectively. The Israeli Lebanese border is relatively quiet. The fears of escalation into a regional war which could produce plunging financial markets and rising up prices. So far that's been avoided, And you're right to focus on ostages, but I think the deal is very clear. I'd be stunned, frankly, if this humanitarian past collapsed. Hamas is trading hostages for time. They're hoping that the hostage families inside of Israel will continue to pressure the government in order to redeem all of the hostages that have not been The Arabs are angry, and THEWS earliers are going to face probably in the next week. If the ten hostages for a day of quiet, which is the offer on the table, If Amas accepts that doesn't add requests for more Palestinian prisoners, you could get another week out of this. But at some point the Israelis are going to want to resume in their ground campaign, and at that point, I think you're going to see growing awkwardness and uncomfortableness, maybe even tension in the US Israeli relationship. There's daylight between President Biden and some of his own members within his party, within his team that he has surrounding him. But he also reportedly has expressed concern about the collateral damage, about the civilians who have gotten killed, the incredible number, more than people had originally expected. How much is that going to lead to pressure in a new way that Benjamin not to Yahoo, who is not exactly popular at home, we'll have to listen to. I think that's the core question. President persona alone among modern presidents, he considers himself part of the Israeli story and is preternaturally his emotional support for Israel literally is impressed on his DNA. The politics. As you point out, he has to be concerned about rising the rising type opposition the Democratic Party, but the Republicans, who have emerged as the sort of Israel right or wrong party, are also waiting for him to pressure the Israelis so that they can pressure Joe Biden. And finally, there's I think the president's realization that he doesn't have many good answers to the two or three critical questions that the Israelis are facing with. How do you prosecute a ward to eradicate Hamas without an exponential rise in Palestinian desks? How do you surge humanitarian assistance into a war zone? And finally, what do you do about the proverbial day after its weeks and months after? So I think part of the reason he's reluctant to press the Israeli's hard so far is because he doesn't have better answers for them these core questions. Aaron David Miller a student of this, with your books back thirty years, don't go out thirty years for but I'm going to give you five years or ten years forward. Is our relationship with Israel irrevocably changed? A fascinating question. The headline would suggest that generational changes in voter constituency in Congress. The growing divergence between United States and the values proposition that Israel is a liberal democracy more or less seeking the same things that we do, and growing policy differences suggest that, yeah, there is a lot of fraud tension in this relationship. Whether it's a headline or a trend line, that's the key issue. I suspect that the operating system that has kept the US's a Reeli relationship pretty much very close together is going to continue for quite some time. But again, we support Israel because it's an American interest to do so, and because it reflects American values to do so. When those things change in the face of our right wing Israeli government that's pursuing opposite policies both at home and with respect to diplomacy on the Israeli Polish Ennian issue, then I think the US is really relationship will begin to change. That tension is continuing to build. And thank you so fantastic to hear from you, Aaron David Miller. There of the kind of endowment for international pain. Torsten Sluck He's chief economist at Appalled Global Management and writes a piercing short note each morning and here he hearkens back to the skeletons in the closet, the worries that those older have about is this time like well, try nineteen seventy two, Is this time like a nifty to fifty or the point where Polaroid and Xerox were one of the five Magnificent five that we're out there, Doctor Slock joins us this morning, I loved the equal multiples. Now with nineteen seventy two, I believe that ended ugly. Do you take that over to an analog that this will end ugly? Well, we still, of course have to wait and see exactly how AI will be used, and no one really knows how it'll be implemented, and how much productivity we'll get out of it, how much more consumption or welfare overall. But the bottom line really is what we can track is the valuations, And what I did right in the note today is exactly that the valuations and the trajectory is beginning to look quite similar, including the levels we're at with the pe for AI stocks or the Magnificent seven. Now at above fifty on a trailing basis, it does make you wonder a little bit whether this is indeed going to have a different story compared to what we've seen before, or whether this is actually going to be similard some I mentioned Tom Galvin years ago at Donald sim Lufkin Generator was very top line sales specific. Are we going to have the nominal GDP to support the magnificent seven even if they level out, or to bring the breadth up in a good market. Well, the problem is that the SMP four ninety three has basically been flat for the last year. So the conclusion is that so far all the market gains have been driven by this handful of stocks. So that of course also should bring us all to the discussion, Okay, is this sustainable? To what degree? Is this something that is a good representation of the oral index? If you really end up just buying into one simple story, namely AI, which is the reason why a lot of people are focused on the consumer to understand exactly where we are in this spending picture. And I want to go back to what we really began with this idea of are we seeing sustained sales and a sustained strong consumer or are we just seeing these shifts underway regardless of who ends up benefiting the most. But shifts underway. That represents strength in pockets in the overall picture. Yeah, and absolutely, I do think that it's clear that the shifts have been towards services. So that's why goods have generally been slowing down. Another strength point, as you're pointing out, is that we've also seen strengthen online. But if you really back up and look at the data for how is the consumer doing. Well, we just heard your previous guests talk about trading down. If you look at the language rates for all the loans have been going up, the language rates for credit cards have been going up. We're seeing across the board the level of interest rates are beginning to bite harder and harder and harder on consumers. So the conclusion, of course, is that the FED is actually achieving exactly what the textbook would have predicted. Namely, the slowdown might not have been as fast as we all thought just a few quarters ago, but it is still playing out. The slowdown is here and it will continue. We still have the worst ahead of us. It is the case that monetary policy is biting continuously also going forward, what's the distance between goldilocks and a full blown recession. Well, the runway that we are on here for slowing the economy down. From a FED perspective, certainly is that inflation is coming down. The labor market is also gradually coming down, and we got to get a soft landing not only in invasion but also the labor market. But we begin to see that on a plant rate has gone up from three point falls now at three point nine. That's create a lot of discussion about the PSAM rule and to what degree that's an indicator of a recession or not. But the conclusion to your question, Lisa is I do think that we should view this in the broader context of what is it the FIT is trying to do? And the FIT is trying to slow the economy down. That's why they raise interest rates, they raise interust rates because they want us to buy fewer costs fuel wash us fuel refrigerators, let's furniture, let fewer iPhones, and because of that we should over time continue to see that process play out. There is a real tension right now, and I see this under the notes underpinning the notes calling for five thousand or fifty one hundred on the S and P by the end of next year, which is how the federal respond to the slowdown that they wrought that they wanted to see. Will they cut rates aggressively just simply because they're tightening the screws at a faster pace as growth slows. Do you buy that they will do that even if it keeps perhaps the economy flow and prolongs this period of disinflation. This is a really important discussion in teams. In M language, we are looking at the tailor rule. How much weight do they put on inflation? How much weight do they put on the labor market. So far, all the weight has almost entirely been on inflation. And the question is next year, once inflation does get closer to two, will they begin to shift their attention over towards the label market? In other words, are the coefficients changing so that we put more weight on the label market. Now that the labor market is beginning to show some signs of weakening, I appreciate that jobless claims are not slowing, but the work week is coming down. If you look at job openings is coming down. A number of indicators are suggesting that label demand is weakening. So I do think that they will begin to shift away from focusing purely on inflation to begin to focus. Also more on the label a slock rule. It's like the tailor. I'm inventing it right now. Focus the slock rule. Look for this. The slock rules is three months moving average and non farm payrolls. What statistic do we need on a three months moving average of non farm payrolls? Where we make the great tailor to slock shift. See if you look at your latest number for a non found it was one hundred and fifty thousand. If idays one eighty eight two, and if I type Ecoco on Bloomberg, I will see that by second quarter of next year, non found paybrows will on average fall April, May and June be thirty five thousand. So now goes not wondering, thirty five thousand, So that is not wondering. That's the average, So that can have some fluctuation. I was not wondering. I always say this and p going to trade. If we get thirty five thousand and non fund payrose, what if it even goes below zero? The risk is here that we may have a runway and the lack of effects of Martins hear pology essentially beginning to be a big a trag on growth. Adobe just out Amy, Thank you so much for this. This is Bramo spending this weekend. Adobe a twelve billion to twelve point four billion Cyber Monday spend last year was eleven point three billion. But to your distinction, that's cyber that's just we're parsing out how all of us are glued to Amazon and it's cyber Monday today, let alone all the other spending that we've seen over this period of time. Really, I mean, honestly, the distortions have been incredibly difficult to really pick up on, which is the reason why I'm listening to what you're saying toward Sten, this idea of the labor market weakening and the FED maybe responding to that, and I'm thinking about, well, people still have money to spend, Their real wages are actually going up, and oh yeah, this is a job full recession that people are accepting. This is what they say, right, that people are hoarding labor, this is a new world. Do you push back against that? Well, there is in your weekend reading from the Fed the working papers that write about this. There is some debate between the Boston Fed, the San Francisco Fed, the New York Fed, has also written about this. The Board of Prominence has also written about this. The key issue still is it's very clear that we are ultimately running out of savings, excess savings in the household sex. So the question is some people view that has already happened, other view that's about now, other view that may only happen in the next few quarters. But the trend is very clear. The fit is getting what they want. They want a slowdown, and that's why you will also madly get excess savings running out. And let's not forget student dont payment started on the first of Octoba. That's why retail sales for Octoba was readtivy week. If we put all these things together, I still think that the slowdown continues. Deutsche Bank put out a forecast for one hundred and seventy five basis points of FED rate cuts next year. Is that feasible with the recipe that you just put out there. Well, that does require, of course quite a hot slowdown in the economy. That certainly requires a recession and a hot landing. The question is that's not what the contentious is expecting at the moment. But it's clear that if we do get a shop all slow down, and that is also what the contentious is expecting. It's just above ceral DP is expecting it below zero. Both scenarios make sense on their own, but the conclusion still is we still have more downside risk from where we are at the moment. I got to go back to your day job a couple of years ago before you got this easy slog with Apollo, and that was a Deutsche Bank Rischie Senak, the Prime Minister told our Francine Lacroix adamantly he is not prescribing austerity. You and folk arts Landau live this at Deutsche Bank, of the continent of Europe and of the United Kingdom. Is there a risk they slip into an incorrect austere policy. Well, the problem is that both the UK and EU have some same list of problems at the US broadly speaking, and then have some addition. We stimulus. We did a lock in New world stimulus. They're stuck in the old world. Isn't that simple? Well, in some sense, fiscal policy is certainly very different. In the US. It was much more aggressive than what it was in the UK and Europe, and in that sense, all the rules that in particular the growth constability plaque in Europe but also in the UK have certainly played a very critical role in why fiscal policy has been very different in the UK relative to the US. The fiscal policy will be more expensive than perhaps some people would say given where rates are. That's what we saw from Germany and the recent prognostications over there. Do you think auctions matter? I do think auctions matter a lot. And as you know, as you just talked about two year, three year, a five years and seven year this week is very important. And if you go also and look at the auction sizes over the last several months, they have gone up and as they continue to go up. The risk really here is that short rates may eventually come down, but we may have a steepener because long rates may potentially not come down as much because now we are dealing with this supply issue that potentially to put up what pressure and limit how much of a time we can get in loong rates. Let's revisit a banner from two hours ago. Outnumbered again, Pharaoh gone slock here. Auctions matter two, No one cares one. I think we were at two before. Now I think we're at three. Yeah, you know, it's just so it's like three to one is how we're going to take that matter. It depends if you care. I care auction a few weeks ago with a matter quite alone, Yes, exactly. Thank you doctor, Please of the tursen go away at least till next week by Steve Schwartzman of course Blackstone. Steve, thank you. You were just on stage with the Prime Ministeryunak. How much are you putting in the UK? What are you most excited about when it comes to the UK growth. Well, we've been putting a lot of money into the UK. First of all, we're doing our headquarters building here, which is very significant size building. It will be the largest built in the Mayfair area in the last several decades. We bought two companies in the last two weeks in the United States in the UK, and you know we have a total of seventy billion pounds that's close to ninety billion dollars of investments in the UK with thirty seven thousand people working in these companies in real estate. See what stands out as the biggest strength actually for the UK. So there are many questions. There was an autumn statement we're not sure how they're going to fund some of the tax cuts if they continue down the road, and we don't know if the Conservatives are in power in twelve months. Well, the big advantages of the UK are the English language, the rule of law. They have a terrific university system, they have a great life science areas. They're the number one tourist area in Europe, which actually I found surprising, and so they have a lot of pockets of strength. They've been through a complex time politically, but if you look longer term, the rule of law in the UK is very strong. Their regulatory posture has been quite consistent over time. But we forget that these are good things and not all places in the world have them, and so I think I'm not an expert on the UK, you know, sort of laws in the sense of what they're doing politically. I think their autumn statement on balance, which was stimulative, is and necessary thing for their economy. And they have a much more open approach to immigration at the top levels of education, which is good for helping to power an economy. So I think there's some interesting things going on here. Steve, what can you tell us about private market valuations at Pe firms? So in general. Do you see LPs actually demanding more information on marks and more reporting requirements and evaluation. Is that something that's shifting. I don't see a big set of enormous concerns on that. What always happens at this stage and the cycle, you know, when you go to very high interest rates and the world sort of starts slowing down, is that deals slow down. So for l P is their biggest concern is they're not getting capital flows back that they normally were depending on. Just people aren't selling assets. These types of cycles always end and things returns to normal. It's quite interesting that, you know, we just did two deals in the UK in the last two weeks, one in the affordable in what they call social housing area, one in computer software. Both are million billion dollar, two billion dollar type deals. We're doing a number of things in the US now, some of which have been announced, some of which haven't. We just were involved with a situation in Norway that's twelve billion dollars. So the deal business is not totally in mothballs, and these things start again, and I think we're more on that side of the cycle. Although it has been you know, somewhat dreary for a year in terms, for example of real estate, I think you're raising an opportunity to stake funds ten billion. How's that going, Well, we're raising money for a European fund. Actually, we're always raising money for a lot of funds for ran scene, and you know, we're gone through a big fund raising cycle. So we have over two hundred billion dollars. It's one of the biggest pools of uninvested capital in the world and that will be deployed in due course. Interestingly, in real estate, which you just asked about, we're seeing a good deal of volume of buying things in Europe because European real estate is under pressure in large parts because interest rates were so low here for so long. Sometimes in countries they were negative, so the barring costs to own real estate were next to nothing, and now it's closer to six percent. So if you have to carry a whole portfolio that used to cost you next to nothing at six percent, they need to sell things, you know, it's necessary to just hold their other properties. And so we're seeing some very very good buys in that kind of environment because unlike most people, we have enormous capital and can buy the types of real estate that we like, whether they're data centers, whether they're warehouses, whether they're student housing, where those sectors have done very well. See what can you tell us about great? So, have you seen any redemptions in that? How's that going? It breaks greats? How do you say b r e it t you say b reat Yeah, Well, those those redemptions have gone down. You know, they're I think forty or something like that of what they were a year ago. And so that that pool of capital is actually doing quite well compared to almost all of the real estate, and so you know, we look forward to that sort of ultimately going back to a very normal kind of world. Overall. Does UK politics seem benign compared to the US, but also what we saw in the Netherlands, well, you know, commenting on politics of other countries, let alone our own, which has a sense of drama and you know sort of incredulity is outside of my remit fair Steve Schwartz with a thank you so much. As always, Steve also has to get to another meeting right here, because people are coming and going in all the corridors of course of Hampton Court Palace. John subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday, starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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The following questions were sent from the October 11, 2023 presentation to the NYC AAII Chapter. You can watch the video here- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjFlcDAlH1k Chris Pedersen's section starts at 59:00. Paul and Chris conclude with a Q&A session. If I have a pension and social security that cover my cost of living, is it inappropriate to have 100% of my  long term portfolio in stocks? How should I create a do it yourself target date fund using one of your Sound Investing portfolios?   What are the tax implications of the portfolios you recommend?  Are some better for taxable accounts? Paul, do you invest in any individual stocks?  If not, why not? I have relied on professional managers for most of my life but would like to quit paying the fees to have someone else do it.  How can one feel confident in taking over the management of an account? What about 50% half small cap value and S&P, AND 50% in a target date fund? If I am dollar cost averaging is there a point (size of market decline) at which it would make sense to go ahead and invest it all? Does it make THAT big of a difference if someone lump sums vs dollar cost averaging? which is better/worse? Is there a small cap value emerging markets ETF you recommend for best in class? No investment advisor I know recommends a 100% allocation to small value. More common is a tilt toward the favored factor, say, 80% in the market and 20% in small value. What do you recommend? Do you recommend tax loss harvesting in a taxable account? https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/tax-loss-harvesting/ https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/how-to-tax-loss-harvest-a-large-taxable-account/ 12. Does a large cap blend fund that's equal-weighted compare well with a cap-weighted fund?  

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGood morning to you from sunny California, where I am visiting my dear mother.If you missed them last week:* Check out my interview with Lyn Alden.* As well as the silver stock with a 47 million ounce surprise. * And, if you are thinking about buying gold in these uncertain times, be sure to speak to The Pure Gold Company.Today, though, it's the stock market. We think it's going up. Now could be the time to invest. Here's why …The tricky month of October, the month of choice for the stock market crash, is now behind us. There was a wobble. A very wobbly wobble. But the blob held. The stage is now set for a juicy rally into year end.November to January is, historically, the best three month period of the year for the S&P500, the index of the largest 500 companies in America, while November to April is the best six month period. We are at the beginning of that run.If you bought the Dow Jones Industrial Average on November 1 every year since 1950 and sold it six months later on April 30, a ten grand stake would now be $1.2 million, give or take.  But if you did the reverse and bought the Dow on May 1st and sold it on October 31, you would barely be at breakeven. That is some difference, particularly when you add currency deprecation into the mix. One option gives you breakeven over 73 years, less inflation, the other option gives you $1.2 million. Don't ask me to explain why this is. It might be some kind of self-perpetuating, herd mentality thing. It might just be that different people do different things at different times of the year. I swim more in summer, for example. (I know that sounds trite, but you take my point). But there is more. This is the third year of the four-year US Presidential Cycle. It might be because the powers that be are trying to get everything looking hunky dory in time for the next election. It might just be one of those things. But third years are very good years for stocks, the years in which the strongest gains come - one of the reasons I was arguing in January that this would be a good year for stocks. This year has been particularly good, especially in the Nasdaq - I gather it had one of its best first six months ever. In 2019, President Donald Trump's third year, there was a 27% rally in the S&P500. Prior to that, from 1933 to 2015, the average gains have been 16%, compared to 6% for the other three years. That November-to-April run is even stronger in the third year of the US Presidential cycle.  We are at the most bullish time of year in the most bullish year. The portents are good. It may not feel that way after the October we have just had. October, is almost always the most volatile month. Octobers are often so horrible that nobody wants to buy. That in itself is almost reason to buy. “Buy when you don't want to, sell when you don't want to,” is not bad, as stock market adages go.Sentiment models are looking good. Last week's AAII sentiment survey, which measures retail sentiment, showed 50% bears. Hedge fund sentiment is similarly contrarian bullish: long/short funds are the most defensively positioned in 11 years. Insider purchases are up and exceed insider sales. The bond markets have calmed down. Inflation, as they measure it, looks like it's calming down in the US too. Finally we got a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal. I'm not going to try and explain that technical signal here. Google is your friend. Just know that it is bullishWe heard a lot of talk about an impending stock market crash last month. I'm of the mind that if it was going to happen, it would already have happened. Last week saw an eye-watering reversal and short-covering rally. We can expect a bit of digestion over the next few days, before things get going again.So how to play all this?

這集特別用質性、量化並進的方式，來跟大家分享最近震盪又回穩的股市到底怎麼看？還有上週強勁的美國非農數據又會讓聯準會如何動作？ 本集邀請到量化研究員 AL 跟研究經理 Ryan，來跟大家聊聊近期的投資回測結果與經濟數據後續發酵。

Paul opens with information on the Oct. 11 AAII presentation.  Here is the link to ⁠sign up⁠. There was a time when Paul was very critical about target date funds.  But important circumstances made him more accepting of the important value of target date funds.  He discusses why he changed his mind but explains why he […] The post Pros and cons of target date funds and Ken Fisher's advice first appeared on Paul Merriman. The post Pros and cons of target date funds and Ken Fisher’s advice appeared first on Paul Merriman.

Paul opens with information on the Oct. 11 AAII presentation.  Here is the link to sign up.There was a time when Paul was very critical about target date funds.  But important circumstances made him more accepting of the important value of target date funds.  He discusses why he changed his mind but explains why he still thinks you should build the glide path on your own.He also responds to Ken Fisher's comments about the small cap and large cap historical returns. In the discussion Paul recommends listeners take a look at the quilt charts that show individual asset class and portfolio annual returns.

Financial Feast Pod is a new podcast  focused on simplifying personal finance, with each segment dedicated to understanding and implementing the most important financial decisions.  In this podcast Zach and Kevin interview Chris Pedersen about “2 Funds for Life”. Not only will you learn about Chris' book but the hosts ask a lot of questions about the Foundation and Chris' favorite food. Topics: 2 Funds for Life explained Risk and return of 2FFL How to use 2FFL in a 401k To rebalance or not to rebalance Conservative, moderate and aggressive portfolios Why not put all in small cap value What about international small cap value Advantages and disadvantages of hiring an investment manager If you haven't signed up for our weekly Sound Investing newsletter, click here to sign upand for a copy of  2 Funds for Life and We're Talking Millions Orange County AAI video- (Chris' presentation starts at the 5:20 mark) On July 22, 2023 Chris Petersen made a 2 hour presentation to over 650 AAII members and our Foundation members.  The following is the AAII announcement of Chris' topics: As investors, we all want to get the best return we can with the least possible risk. We often think of this as an asset allocation problem. Although there is some truth in that, it can only go so far. We still have to take some risk to get a reasonable return, and select specific funds in which to invest. And then, we're still left with the risk of our emotions and behavior. In this presentation, Mr. Pedersen will discuss how portfolio asset allocation, fund selection, and investor behavior impact the returns we get for the risks we take. He'll also show some practical approaches to help us all come closer to being best-in-class in all three of these areas. Attend Mr. Pedersen's discussion and you will learn: How various types of equities and bonds interact to impact risk and reward An objective approach to choosing best-in-class funds for equity asset types The impact investor behavior has on risk and reward, and ways to mitigate or improve it. Chris Pedersen is Director of Research at The Merriman Financial Education Foundation and creator of the 2 Funds for Life investing approach to augmenting target-date funds. He is an engineer by training, and a new opportunity finder by nature. In his work for the Foundation, he develops and maintains a set of best-in-class exchange-traded fund (ETF) recommendations, the customizable Merriman Aggressive Target Date glidepath calculator and regularly contributes to articles and podcasts.  Like the rest of the Merriman Foundation staff, his work is motivated by a genuine desire to learn and help, free of any financial incentives or conflicts of interest. I hope you will forward this presentation to friends and family that are looking for better ways to invest.

 The podcast opens with a heads up on an exciting AAII presentation on October 11 at 6:30 EST.  Paul will make a one hour presentation on “The Case for Small Cap Value:  The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.” This presentation will include some interesting new tables that give a new perspective to this productive equity asset […] The post SPIVA REPORT: One of the most important studies on fund returns first appeared on Paul Merriman. The post SPIVA REPORT: One of the most important studies on fund returns appeared first on Paul Merriman.

The podcast opens with a heads up on an exciting AAII presentation on October 11 at 6:30 EST.  Paul will make a one hour presentation on "The Case for Small Cap Value:  The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.” This presentation will include some interesting new tables that give a new perspective to this productive equity asset class. After Paul speaks, Chris' presentation will focus on 2 Funds for Life in retirement and how to select the Best In Class ETFs.One of Paul's favorite Truth Tellers, Ben Carlson, has recently written, "The Luckiest Generation”.  Paul reads highlights from the article.  It turns out “The Luckiest Generation”  faced a lot of serious headwinds.  Then Paul suggests the steps we should take if we aren't so lucky. The annual SPIVA Report is one of the most important studies in the industry on mutual fund performance.  While many may wish to read the whole report, Paul focuses on the tables on pages 9, 10, 13, 14, 17 and 19.Those who take the time to review this information will hopefully reconsider holding any actively managed funds in their portfolio.  

On July 22 Chris Pedersen spoke to the Orange County AAII Chapter.  This podcast, as well as one on 8/9/23 (20 Q&As) and another on 8/2/23 (16 Q&As) address questions that arose from the presentation.  This podcast covers a few more AAII questions plus other recent questions.  Topic 1:  What is the difference between investing today vs. 40 years ago?  And how  is  investing likely to be different in the future? 01:11 Topic 2:  Will the new Avantis All Equities Market Value ETF be a good substitute for your Worldwide All Value Portfolio?  7:00 Topic 3:  Do you recommend converting traditional IRA funds to a Roth IRA using the back door Roth IRA strategy?  Paul suggests reading:  https://www.thebalancemoney.com/when-does-a-backdoor-roth-ira-make-sense-4153803  and various articles at The White Coat Investors:  https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/backdoor-roth-ira-tutorial/.  14:30 Topic 4:  What is the most important table on your website?  Paul mentions tables at these pages:  https://paulmerriman.com/ultimate-buy-and-hold-strategy/,  https://paulmerriman.com/portfolios-2023-updates/ (most important), https://paulmerriman.com/fine-tuning-your-asset-allocation/,  https://paulmerriman.com/fixed-contributions/,  https://paulmerriman.com/fixed-distributions-2023/ and https://paulmerriman.com/flexible-distributions-2023/.  18:25 Topic 5:  Should a younger investor (20s, 30s, 40s) put TIPs as part of their fixed income or just stick to the Total Bond Market? 22:17 Topic 6:  Can you discuss your recommendations for the bond portion of a portfolio?  For example, how do you decide how much would go with the Worldwide 4 Fund Portfolio?   23:57Topic 7:  Could there be a problem when small cap value funds get too large? 28:02

On July 22, 2023 Chris Pedersen addressed the Orange County Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors.  At the end of his 2 hour presentation there were many unanswered questions. Our last ⁠podcast⁠ and ⁠video ⁠addressed 16 of those questions.  In this podcast Paul responds to 20 more of the AAII questions.  1.  How do you feel about […] The post Better than Wellesley and Wellington? and 19 other questions first appeared on Paul Merriman. The post Better than Wellesley and Wellington? and 19 other questions appeared first on Paul Merriman.

On July 22, 2023 Chris Pedersen addressed the Orange County Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors.  At the end of his 2 hour presentation there were many unanswered questions. Our last podcast and video addressed 16 of those questions. In this podcast Paul responds to 20 more of the AAII questions.  1.  How do you feel about using a balanced fund such as Vanguard Wellington in retirement?01:44 2.  I subscribe to your mantra of index funds, keep costs low, buy and hold etc,  Is Merriman Wealth Management your company as well?  I ask because that company espouses buy and hold and market timing and charges “AUM” fees. 14:15 3.  I am a new retiree at 65 and have decided to use the “2 Funds for Life” target date fund with a 10% small cap value portfolio.  Do you recommend the 10% small cap value be split between U.S. and international small cap value funds?  23:30 4.  Is it too late for someone just entering retirement to change their investment portfolio to the 10-Fund Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio?   26:39 5.  What is your impression of a recent Vanguard study that showed a large percentage of investors over 85 with an asset allocation of 100% in stocks? 30:14 6  How about using a technology fund instead of a small cap value funds? 35:00 7.  What are some short term bonds funds you recommend?  Bonds funds discussed VSBSX, VMLTX and VSCSX 39:24 8.  I am 25 years old and have a high risk tolerance.  Would it be okay to be all small cap value and would it be okay to invest 10% of the portfolio in individual small cap value stocks? 41:06 9. I have been using the Merriman 10 fund portfolio for 10 years.  The annual rebalancing takes a lot of time.  Do you recommend I move to the worldwide 4 fund portfolio instead? 43:00 10. I am retired and just took a full distribution from my 401k and invested the cash in a Vanguard Rollover IRA.  I I use one of Merriman's portfolios should I stage my investment over many months or invest it all immediately? 44:45 11.  I currently hold a large amount of cash and want to start investing.  Do you recommend a lump sum investment or dollar cost average over a few months? 48:25   Fine Tuning tables. 12.  Do you think the Avantis All Equity Markets Fund (AVGE) has enough small cap value to compete with the returns of your Worldwide 4 Fund Portfolio? 53:53 13.  How does the Avantis Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV) compare to the DFA Small Cap Value ETF (DFSX)? 56:46 14.  Do you recommend buying individual bonds instead of bond funds? 59:58 15.  Do you recommend moving to a target date fund with a later retirement to get more exposure to equities? 1:02:00 16.  What would happen if one of the Avantis funds closed?  Paul recommends reading this article. 1:03:39 17.  I own VBR (Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF) in a taxable account.  Should I take the tax hit and move the investment in AVUV (Avantis Small Cap Value ETF)? 1:07:00 18.  What is your opinion of holding target date funds or a fund of funds during retirement? 1:10:33 19.  What is the range of Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of large and small growth and value funds? 1:13:00 20.  I think I need a professional advisor to help me with my financial decisions.  Will the fees I pay be covered by higher returns?  Financial Advisor services. 1:17:21

On July 22, 2023 Chris Pedersen gave a 2 hour online presentation to the Orange County Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  The title was “Best In Class Fund Selection and Behavior.”  Over 650 people attended the presentation, a record turnout for our presentations.  The video will be available in the coming […] The post AAII Orange County Chapter Q&A first appeared on Paul Merriman. The post AAII Orange County Chapter Q&A appeared first on Paul Merriman.

On July 22, 2023 Chris Pedersen gave a 2 hour online presentation to the Orange County Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  The title was “Best In Class Fund Selection and Behavior.”  Over 650 people attended the presentation, a record turnout for our presentations.  The video will be available in the coming weeks.  While  Chris answered  many questions during his presentation, there were over 60 questions remaining unanswered.  In this podcast and several to follow Chris and Paul will try to answer all of the questions.  Here are the answers to the first 16 questions: Should investors limit their bond holdings to short term bond funds? Are CDs a good place to park cash right now? Do you think investing in an internationally diversified index fund is a good way to manage currency risk? My wife and I are 70 with our portfolio 75% in cash.  Is now a good time to invest and should we put it all in now or dollar cost average?  Chris mentions a podcast on dollar cost averaging vs lump sum investing by Rob Berger. Dimensional Small Cap Value Fund appears to have less than a 2% return over the last 16 years.  Could that be true? For retired investors wouldn't it be prudent to apply a market timing system that will protect against a big selloff? How does your Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio compare to your other portfolios in terms of risk and return?  Paul mentions Table H1 at this link. Would an investor be better served in a target date fund or managing a simple 3 Fund Bogleheads portfolio?  Paul mentions H1 here as well. Why not put your bond holdings into a diversified stock fund that pays dividends, like the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD)? What is average maturity of the short-term bond funds you recommend? If I don't have small cap value available in my 401k, should I substitute a small cap blend fund in my 2 Funds For Life portfolio? How does Portfolio Visualizer work on target date funds? Your charts show the possibility of an 81% decline.  Does that mean the fund could see the value fall from $100,000 to $19,000? Please explain the term investment factor. Instead of comparing different market factors, how would you compare the returns of different market sectors? Would you consider producing a factor regression video/course so do it yourself investors could learn to evaluate funds for themselves?

Retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, chief executive at Telsey Advisory Group, says that inflation has forced consumers to become more discerning with their spending, using more on essentials and trying to keep powder dry, and while it's not enough of a pullback to tank the economy, the longer inflation persists at high levels, the harder it will be for the consumer to keep propping up the economy. Meanwhile, bullish investor sentiment -- the expectation that the stock market will gain ground in the next six months -- reached "unusually high" levels  in the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey, with Charles Rotblut -- who runs the survey for AAII -- noting that extreme sentiment levels often are a precursor to the market changing directions. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs says puts Tesla and Netflix back into the Danger Zone, noting valuations after recent earnings reports have them poised for a setback and, in the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds puts his take on value investing in current conditions.

Paul announces Chris Pedersen's upcoming AAII presentation on Saturday, July 22.  The 2 hour Zoom presentation will begin at 8:45 a.m.  Chris will discuss how portfolio asset allocation, fund selection and investor behavior impact the returns we get for the risk we take.  He'll also show some practical approaches to help us all come closer […] The post New Avantis ETF, free curriculum, good news or bad first appeared on Paul Merriman. The post New Avantis ETF, free curriculum, good news or bad appeared first on Paul Merriman.

Paul announces Chris Pedersen's upcoming AAII presentation on Saturday, July 22.  The 2 hour Zoom presentation will begin at 8:45 a.m.  Chris will discuss how portfolio asset allocation, fund selection and investor behavior impact the returns we get for the risk we take.  He'll also show some practical approaches to help us all come closer to being best-in-class in all three of these areas.   The public is invited to attend this webinar.  Please share this information with your family and friends.  The FREE WEBINAR will be live-streamed to your computer or mobile device, but you must register at https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_xYAAhMVnT--qDnipfpaIqQ#/registration   After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.   Paul mentions a new survey on AI. 45% say they would turn to AI to make financial decisions. Paul mentions AI eliminates wading through 20 advertisements to get to the information you're after.   Paul mentions his lists of 80 project.  One list of 80 focuses on important Investment lessons. One lesson is figuring out how to deal with the reality that there is always good news and bad on every important economic factor.  In a recent Ben Carlson article, "Good News-Bad New About the Economy” he explores the good  and bad news about the economy, inflation, cost of housing prices, wage growth and unemployment. So what do investors do with this list?  Paul suggests it's best to ignore the temptation to take sides.   Paul mentions a new fund from Avantis.  The Avantis All Equity Markets Value fund combines U.S. and international small, mid cap and small cap value asset classes.  Will this new fund be a one fund solution for the 5 fund Worldwide All Value Portfolio on Table H102?   Paul suggests investors watch the Morningstar U.S. Barometer style box returns on a daily basis.  The purpose of this exercise is to become aware of the wide swings of the range of equity asset classes over short periods of time.   Paul updates the work of Truth-Teller Tim Ranzetta and his non profit NGPF.org.  Their mission is to have every state require a semester of personal finance as necessary for graduation from high school by 2030.  In the last 2 years the number of states that meet the requirement rose from 8 to 22, with 6 more expected this year.   Paul recommends parents consider ways to help their family and their school district make the move.  Here are ways Tim suggest you can help your family and local schools: Find out what their state is doing about personal finance education. Here's the most up-to-date: https://www.ngpf.org/state-of-financial-education-report/ Find out what their school is doing: https://www.ngpf.org/got-finance/ Advocate at their school using these resources: https://www.ngpf.org/expand-access/ Take an activity from our website and teach in their child's schools: Bean Game is a particularly easy one and very popular: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MRzOVjYtctMlYpLogKbdc5ZCgBO1b8Rc-FlbGfE5IA4/edit?usp=sharing Paul recommends parents subscribe to one or more of the NGPF regular newsletters:     https://www.ngpf.org/blog/current-events/whats-new-with-investing-2023/

After a dismal 2022, the once-reliable 60/40 portfolio may not be the sure thing it once was. Should investors stay the course? Or should they take steps to create a more flexible portfolio? In the first of two episodes on the subject, we're joined by the AAII's Charles Rotblut and BlackRock's Matt Estes, who help provide some answers. Guests: Charles Rotblut, vice president at the American Association of Individual Investors and editor of the AAII JournalMatt Estes, managing director and senior product strategist for the Global Allocation Portfolio at BlackRock

Three big things you need to know today. First, we continue to see expectations for a 2024 economic recovery embedded in GDP forecasts, and a healing process in earnings expectations is also underway – something we've been writing about a lot recently. Second, sentiment is embarking on its own recovery, with net bullishness returning to the AAII investor survey. Third, Small Caps appear to be getting their own recovery started, with a gain of more than 6.6% so far in June through Friday's close, well in excess of the S&P 500's 2.8% gain. Passive inflows have helped fuel the rebound, but we think the move is justified and remain overweight Small Caps relative to Large Caps.

Last week's AAII survey continues to signal elevated bearish sentiment, while internal client surveys at sell-side firms reach bearish extremes. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the last 15 months have shown a persistent lack of bullish sentiment, with roughly 20 of the 70 lowest readings ever for optimism in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, a weekly poll that dates back to 1987. Likewise, bearishness has been near record levels consistently. Rotblut notes that the survey did not show this kind of consistent high-pessimism/low-bullishness sentiment during the global financial crisis, the dot-com bust, the Gulf War and more. Also on the show, Mervin Jebaraj discusses the National Association for Business Economics study released today showing that more than 70 percent of economists believe the Federal Reserve will not be able to get headline inflation numbers to or below 4 percent this year. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs, singles out MGM Resorts International as the stock with the most overstated street estimates, and discusses how that is likely to translate into continued deeper declines, and Gary Bradshaw od the Hodges Funds talks about blue-chip stocks and growth stories in the current market during the Money Life Market Call.

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial and Derek Moore are back to talk Netflix earnings, why earnings declines don't necessarily mean falling stock prices, wide bid ask spread in housing, and volatility dropping in the currency and fixed income markets. Plus, the AAII investor survey points to record lows in bullish sentiment. Why margins are being overlooked in earnings estimates.  Finally, is Japan an unknown, unknown and Derek (without any knowledge) predicts Amazon buys AMC and Apple buys Netflix.   Does the market still care about Netflix earnings? Netflix low YoY quarterly revenue growth Wild prediction on Apple buying Netflix Why doesn't Amazon buy AMC? Existing home sales continue to make new lows year over year Earnings declines don't equal lower stock prices all the time Comparing years where earnings are lower but stocks are higher Why markets look forward to future earnings expectations Volatility dropping in FX and fixed income markets Spread between equity volatility and Fixed Income volatility still wide Used car prices finally printing lower lows AAII survey points to low bullish sentiment and high bearish sentiment Margins in earnings should be the story Why Japan may be a thing to watch as an unknown unknown     Mentioned in this Episode:     2023 market predictions that will probably be wrong again https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2023-predictions-markets-and-the-economy/id1432836154?i=1000591390337   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://www.amazon.com/Buy-Hedge-Iron-Rules-Investing/dp/1087941849/ref=nav_signin?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=&asin=1087941849&revisionId=&format=4&depth=1   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

Chris Pedersen, Director of Research for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, joins Paul Merriman to explain and elaborate on his ideas and tables published as the cover story in the AAII Journal(October 2022), titled, “Double Your Lifetime Purchasing Power in 20 Minutes.” As Chris states in this broadcast, the article particularly pertains to people doing open enrollment, especially if they have an employer-provided 401k program. “For those who invest in defaults of the 401k programs, most typical across the industry, and do that for 40 years of their career, and then do fixed 4% withdrawals in retirement, and you look at all the cash flows in and cash flows out, and the standard investment, which is a target date fund, and then you adjust for inflation and you ask, ‘What was the impact on how much they have to spend over a lifetime?' It doubles their spending power, even adjusting for inflation, just by investing in a target date fund, which is kind of unbelievable.” Read Chris' article at: https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/21644-double-your-lifetime-purchasing-power-in-20-minutes You may be asked to enter your name and email for full access. You can join AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) risk-free for a month or become a member for a small fee. The AAII is an independent nonprofit corporation formed in 1978 for the purpose of assisting individuals in becoming effective managers of their own assets through programs of education, information and research. Podcast listeners should know there is a slideshow available on the YouTube video version. Call To Action! Here are a few simple ways to support the financial education work of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. In so doing you help better the lives of individuals, families and communities, creating more opportunities for all. Subscribe to our weekly “Sound Investing” podcast, available on your favorite listening platforms and leave a review. Tell us what you think! Subscribe to our YouTube Channel, and hit the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a comment and share the link with your social media and friends. Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time affiliate fee —at no cost to you—which helps support our financial education projects. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn Buy our latest books, We're Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement and 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies; all the profits help support our work. Support our mission by making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation. Thank you!

What's Cool? Podcasts are cool. Episodes are cool. the STAB! show is cool. Hosts are cool. Jesse Jones is cool. And cool panelists like Jack Brown, Aviva Siegel & Tyler Kinney sharing their three AAIIs, bootlegs of The Godfather, Garfield, & The Great Gatsby, craigslist postings selling Cool Guy Lessons, the secret to happiness, & … Continue reading »

Paul addressed the AAII Los Angeles Chapter with “The Inside Story on the ‘150 Portfolios Better Than Yours',” on June 18, 2022. In 2014, Dr. James Dahle, of White Coat Investor, wrote a column titled, "150 Portfolios Better Than Yours." The article included a link to a list of almost every popular model portfolio, including recommendations from Vanguard, Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Betterment, and a host of others. The list is now over 200. In this presentation, Paul compares the range of returns from many of the portfolios, plus his own recommended portfolios (https://paulmerriman.com/portfolios/). The 52-year returns of the all-equity combinations ranged from less than 10% to over 14%. The study reviews the risks and returns of the portfolios. Paul explores six different risk measurements that can help investors select the best portfolio for their needs. In this presentation you'll learn: · How to select the best equity asset classes to construct the best portfolio · How to build a diversified portfolio of equity asset classes · The best way to compare the long-term returns of your portfolio For the PowerPoint accompanying this video/podcast, go to: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/150-Portfolios-Better-Than-Yours-AAII.pdf Learn more about the American Association of Individual Investors at www.aaii.com. AAII members: log into your online AAII Local Chapter Community at https://community.aaii.com. Click here for a direct link to the Los Angeles, CA online chapter community: https://community.aaii.com/communities/community-home?CommunityKey=2a40c785-42cd-4ce3-8c3f-458a13346a5f