Podcasts about super spiked

We are now recording an audio version of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube, which you can listen to by clicking the button the play button above.As the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) Crisis completes its third month and on-again/off-again peace talks drag on, we are starting to see the outlines of various structural themes emerging, and, as importantly, some that are not. Thematically we see the following:* Power Surge! Our Power Surge! super-cycle theme has not only not been knocked off track by the SoH Crisis, but has likely been enhanced based on “the four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy orientation we discuss below. Recently completed 1Q 2026 earnings season shows the AI (artificial intelligence) and broader digital transformation theme is as strong as ever.* Geopolitical Super Vol. Geopolitical Super Vol remains our commodity macro framework, in particular for crude oil prices. Since Russia-Ukraine and through SoH-to-date, we have resisted crude oil super-cycle framings while also, importantly, rejecting perma bear doom-and-gloom. The unforgiving math of global oil demand being forced down to circa 95 million b/d of supply from around 105 million b/d pre-crisis suggests recession is the most likely clearing mechanism rather than a structural increase in long-dated oil prices in the event a significant disruption to flows persists. To be clear, we do see scope for a modest increase in long-end oil on the order of $10/bbl to account for both cost inflation and an increased geopolitical risk premium.* Molecules to markets. In our view, getting molecules to markets is the more pressing strategic imperative for countries than simply trying to find the molecules in the first place. In traditional energy, this puts a premium on well-positioned midstream and downstream assets. In the upstream business, there is always an opportunity to find acreage that is well positioned on the future cost curve. Having a midstream or downstream solution (e.g., LNG) may be an increasing success factor for larger E&P (exploration and production) companies.* New business models > pure-play (for larger companies). The era of extreme pure-play specialization we think will fade, or at least will no longer be the dominant ask of investors. Business model evolution is likely to continue to separate leaders from laggards. Examples we find intriguing include pressure pumpers and midstream companies diversifying into behind-the-meter (BTM) power, US shale gas producers expanding into midstream and potentially LNG, refiners that have grown midstream capabilities, midstream companies that have grown export opportunities, and the expanded commercial trading opportunities that larger companies have pursued. The list is growing.* Brownfield > greenfield (usually). The advantage of doing more from existing assets is something both countries and companies have in common. Brownfield almost always beats greenfield on profitability and speed-to-market, though a best-in-class greenfield project like Guyana oil is the type of exception that exists to the general rule.From an energy policy perspective, the Strait of Hormuz Crisis reveals what we are now calling the four Ds of country-level energy policy aspiration:* Do as much Domestic production as possible;* Diversify energy sources and technologies;* Do more from existing assets; and* embrace Digital transformation and AI.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.The Four Ds of Pragmatic Energy PolicyThe four Ds are the pragmatic policy implication of country leaders recognizing energy's natural hierarchy of needs (Exhibit 1). On the right side of Exhibit 1, we rank (higher on list is better) resource rich countries and resource challenged areas in terms of federal policy orientation that recognizes energy's natural hierarchy of needs and implementation of the four Ds relative to a given country's strengths and weaknesses.Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates among resource rich regions and China among resource challenged areas we see as having favorable federal energy policy orientations. Laggards are not surprising: Western Europe, California, Canada, and Australia. What KSA, UAE, and China have in common are national leadership that emphasizes the ideas of “all of the above,” maximum (or optimal) output of what you can control, and unapologetic “their own country first” mentalities.Super-Spiked subscribers know we have a very favorable view of Canada's oil and gas potential and the leading companies in the province of Alberta. We had an unfavorable view of the federal energy policies pursued by the prior Trudeau regime, with the jury out on the current Carney administration. On the latter, we appreciate that the rhetoric has improved off a low starting point. The proof will be in the policy implementation pudding.No country should aspire to follow the path of California or Western Europe and their “climate first” ideology (dishonorable mention goes to many states in the US northeast). Sadly, poor energy policy choices made in those areas are going to mean that less fortunate consumers and businesses in developing Asia suffer from being outbid for needed energy like LNG, jet fuel, and diesel during times of stress, as we last saw in the early days of Russia-Ukraine. It has been some time since we have done a deep dive on Australia; our sense would be that it is in the Canada category of having substantial oil and gas resources that the world would massively benefit from, but is being held back by ill-advised climate-first ideology by its national leaders.Exhibit 1: A Hierarchy of Energy Needs & Country Policy Objectives and OrientationSource: Veriten.Doing More From Existing AssetsIn previous issues of Super-Spiked, we have discussed three of the Ds: do as much domestic production as possible, diversify energy sources and technology, and embrace digital transformation and AI. Therefore, in this post we will expand on the “do more from existing assets” theme.* A major advantage the developed world has over China, India, and other developing areas is a large installed base of assets and infrastructure. Prematurely retiring old power plants in the name of “energy transition” and “The Climate Crisis” is the type of 2020-2023 mistake that has hurt competitiveness and affordability in the United States and Western Europe. In power generation, we are intrigued with trying to answer the question of how much new generation from legacy sources (e.g., natural gas, BTM, and traditional nuclear) is needed versus how much new generation technology is needed (e.g., fuel cells, enhanced geothermal, advanced nuclear) versus how much can existing grid utilization be improved via flexible loads and various grid enhancing technologies. How much more can we get from existing is important to how much we need from the other two options.* In crude oil markets, we do not believe there is the urgency to figure out “what's next” from a resource perspective as there was in the 2004-2014 super-cycle. To be clear, this comment is intended at the macro level; individual companies are almost always in need of figuring out what's next. Exploration and capital spending is likely to grow but we do not believe the kind of re-rating that happened during China/BRICs is warranted now. Rather we are most intrigued with what companies are doing to extend asset life (i.e., resource to production ratio) via a combination of technology application, business development, and midstream/downstream investment that can ensure molecules get moved to markets and turned into usable end products. Ironically, the Middle East looks like a compelling upstream opportunity for western oil and gas firms, given improved fiscal terms in certain areas. We have long held a favorable view of Canada (our concerns about its federal energy policies notwithstanding) and Alaska. Recent developments in many Latin American countries warrant a fresh look at the region for western players.* The largest areas that seem ripe to “do more from existing” include US shale oil, US shale gas, Middle East oil, Canada's oil sands, Venezuela oil, and developed market power grids.Growth and opportunityThe five areas of energy where we are most confident in growth include:* US and global power generation* Midstream and downstream infrastructure for crude oil and various metals and minerals* Grid enhancing technologies* US and global natural gas* Renewables and storageThe long-term opportunity to grow nuclear power is going to prove to be compelling for many countries, justifying the required patience in terms of time to development. Nuclear is the ultimate baseload, domestic, clean energy source.We remain open-minded about emerging and new energy technologies. We are seeing current growth in fuel cells and optimism about enhanced geothermal on the power generation side of the business. The SoH Crisis will accelerate adoption of electric vehicles and LNG trucks in particular in oil importing countries for diversification and affordability reasons.The success of new business models should diminish investor and activist demand for pure-playsThere is a misperception that investors prefer pure-plays or that investors only want more dividends and stock buybacks. Investors prefer companies that generate superior profitability with differentiated growth. Both are needed to sustainably outperform: profitability AND growth.The challenge in mature, cyclical sectors is that corporate over-enthusiasm for growth usually erodes profitability to the point where investors demand a disavowal of growth in favor of profitability and returning capital to shareholders. To be sure, if structural demand growth for a given commodity is something like 1%-2% per year, the expected growth rates for the largest companies within that sector is unlikely to be any more than +/- 1%-2% of the broader demand trajectory.As businesses mature and growth slows, the demand by investors to focus on sub-parts of the business often increases in order to enhance the combination of per share growth and profitability for a particular business segment. The post-2014 oil super-cycle bust and growth in U.S. shale turbocharged the demand for pure-plays, especially within the traditional oil & gas value chains. Certain pure-play shale oil producers, midstream companies, and refiners in fact performed exceptionally well.Power is clearly in a super-cycle and traditional oil and gas is operating with a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop (a dramatic improvement from the post super-cycle bust phase of 2015-2020) and business opportunities abounding in the different product lines and geographies.SoH Crisis FAQQuestion 1: Has an oil super-cycle begun?Answer: No. Our core view remains Geopolitical Super Vol, not super-cycle.Q2: Have the odds of “peak oil demand” increased?A: No, we don't think so. However, we are concerned that if the Strait remains significantly disrupted that the painful adjustment down in global oil demand could mean that we spend a good part of the remainder of this decade recovering back to pre-crisis demand levels as incremental supply is brought online. In our view, the timing of a more permanent peak in oil demand is unknowable so long as the other seven billion people on Earth continue to use only a fraction of the energy The Lucky 1 Billion of Us take for granted.Q3: Isn't AI and the resulting power demand growth forecasts a bubble waiting to pop?A: No or, perhaps more accurately, not at this time. The fact that numerous stock markets like the U.S. (S&P 500), Japan (NIKKEI), and South Korea (KOSPI) are at or near all-time highs may indeed reflect complacency with the risk of global recession due to the ongoing SoH Crisis. We would differentiate stock market complacency with an AI bubble. We see it in the areas where we spend a lot of time: digital transformation and the application of AI is a game changer for numerous businesses. The stock market may well experience a major correction if the world tips into recession. Whatever short-term setback that might mean for near-term power generation we think would be akin to the Great Financial Crisis hit to oil demand in the middle of the China/BRICs super-cycle of 2004-2014, i.e., it was temporary.Q4: Don't investors prefer “pure-plays” over diversified companies? A: That view is missing our point. Investors prefer companies with competitive profitability and differentiated growth opportunities. The demand for “pure-plays” typically is the result of a mature sector experiencing a structural downcycle and investors being disappointed on both profitability and growth. And for sure, some companies should remain as pure-plays. The larger a company's market capitalization and overall size, the less we think a pure-play business model makes sense, be it basin or geography or asset type or business line. For small-caps and new technologies, the pure-play business model is often logical.Q5: So E&Ps will merge with refiners?A: No, we aren't expecting that type of integration or diversification. A future “integrated E&P” likely means some combination of midstream and commercial exposure as opposed to a historical upstream-refining mix, as an example.⚡️On A Personal Note: Work Hard. Golf Hard.It's been a great three-week stretch of Spring golf ramp-up. 8 rounds in 5 days in and around Troon, Scotland the first week of May and then our NJ club's flagship member-member Governor's Trophy tournament over Memorial Day weekend featuring 45 holes of match play over 2 days. Day 2 of Governor's featured a good Scottish cold snap of low 50s weather and a light drizzle. Glad my rain pants got more work in and happy to be in sunny Houston as I finish writing this.At Governor's you can always see the short-game comfort from the returning Florida crowd versus those that stayed north over what is typically a 4-5 month winter hiatus. I failed to take advantage of part-time Houston residency this past winter and my partner and I didn't win our flight for the first time since 2021. Five 3 puts—FIVE!!!—from yours truly in Round 2 and two more missed make-able putts in Round 3 were seven half-point giveaways we did not overcome. Based on my accounting, my partner cost us only 2 points versus my 3.5, so the disappointing performance is on me. I'll need a stricter winter routine next year.I will say the Scotland golf intensity helped stamina at Governor's. The intensity and deliberate pace of hole-by-hole match play is usually mentally and physically draining. I didn't feel that this year. For future reference: I need to play 36 more often! It forces an easier swing. It improves mental resilience. Seems better than a cold plunge.Does a high level of golf intensity make you a better energy equity analyst, advisor, or board member? For sure it does. There is no question about this. Are we advising our companies to settle for mediocrity? That an 8% return on capital is good enough? That sector average TSR is fine? Of course not.Work Hard. Golf Hard.A Lot of Great Golf In Scotland: Western Gailes Near The Top Of My ListSource: Super-Spiked selfie.The Calm Before The Governor's Trophy StormSource: Super-Spiked.⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This is the 100th Super-Spiked video podcast. We've also had an additional 114 written posts that for no obvious reason we account for with its own numbering system, a point that we are sure is of interest to no one and we will merge going forward in case you are wondering why we'll jump to #215 next week. In celebration of our 100th episode, we recorded this a week early ahead of a guy's golf trip to Scotland, where we'll be playing Turnberry, Prestwick, Royal Troon, and Western Gailes. 8 rounds in 5 days is way to ambitious for a bunch of guys in their upper 50s. More on that in the On A Personal Note at the end of this video. Our key focus this week will be discussing how we think the world should think about energy macro scenarios. It should not surprise anyone that we do not believe the world will go back to viewing CO2 as an organizing principle for energy. We have been asked if not “net zero” then what? We attempt to answer that question this week. We start off by taking a look at the key themes from 2022 at the start of Super-Spiked. Those initial themes have stood the test of time. This 100th episode is targeted at a combination of corporate executives, board members, policy people, and the macro economics and sustainability people within companies. It's probably not for everyone, but that has been one of our philosophies. We are not looking to maximize views of Super-Spiked. We hope it will be accessible to everyone, but this one in particular is aimed at a smaller subset of key decision makers. 0:00 Introduction2:06 Our Key Themes from 2022 Have Stood the Test of Time11:40 Won't Net Zero Make a Comeback in 2028?17:31 If Not Net Zero, Then What?21:46 How Should Energy Macro Scenarios Be Reframed? 23:30 On A Personal Note

We are now recording an audio summary of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube and you can listen to by clicking the button below.This week we expand on the Energy Technology component of our Geopolitical Super Vol framework we introduced last week (here). The massive unmet energy needs of the other seven billion people on Earth were already driving investment in new energy technologies in particular for countries not blessed with sufficient domestic resources like crude oil, natural gas, or coal. A backdrop of structurally increased geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil, in particular amongst the largest economies in the world, will drive a doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on a wide swath of new technologies that help meet energy needs. For The Lucky 1 Billion of Us, there is a need to invest in the technologies that allow our industries to compete in a host a new areas and to no longer simply cede all manufacturing to China and other Asian countries—as the U.S. and Western Europe have done over the past 25 years.The new technology areas we are most interested in span four broad buckets:* Grid optimization and enhancement* Power generation* Demand diversification opportunities, which encompasses areas like EVs (electric vehicles), LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks, and energy efficiency* Manufacturing and industrial competitiveness via physical AI, robotics, and automationIn this post we:* differentiate between “Energy Tech,” which we believe has a very favorable outlook, and “Climate Tech,” the latter of which always seemed non-sensical to us.* highlight the key areas we are watching most closely within the new technology buckets noted above.* provide a progress report on hyperscaler profitability given the massive ramp in CAPEX seen by those companies.* highlight Aramco as an AI and technology leader.The opportunity for investment spans a broad spectrum of companies, technologies, and regions across a range of sectors including technology, industrials, traditional energy, new energies, power, infrastructure, metals, minerals, and mining. In a nutshell, Energy & Power + Technology + Industrials + Metals & Materials convergence.For all Super-Spiked content, follow me at https://arjunmurti.substack.com or at https://veriten.com.X (Twitter): @ArjunNMurti DISCLAIMERMy views are my own and not attributable to any current or past affiliation.CREDITSIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.For the past month we have been recording these videos several days in advance of publication and repeating the line that we hope peace will have been declared and the Strait reopened by the time of Saturday publication. Today the message is different. We are recording this late morning New York time on Thursday, April 9. A fragile ceasefire is sort of still in place and there is optimism that shipping volumes in and out of the Strait of Hormuz is on track to revert to something much higher than where we've been. It will of course take some time to get back to fully normal pre-War flows.We were originally planning a longer discussion with a power point on evolving our Super Vol theme to more explicitly call it Geopolitical Super Vol, and we will touch upon that in this video podcast. But given the dramatic ceasefire news and major equity and commodity market moves, we will instead address nine questions and takeaways that we see from this crisis.0:00 Introduction1:30 Q1: What is your most important takeaway following the ceasefire?2:50 Q2: In the short-term, will oil prices revert to pre-War levels?6:02 Q3: What about oil prices over the medium-to-longer-term?10:18 Q4: How was such a sizable shock not even worse in terms of impacts?13:07 Q5: What is your take away for US consumers? 15:26 Q6: Where could we be better?18:39 Q7: What about Canada?20:30 Q8: Why are we sticking with Super Vol as our price framework?23:04 Q9: So where do you come out on investment in both traditional and new energies?24:54 On A Personal NoteSubscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.

We present a Special Episode of SmarterMarkets™, bringing you exclusive interviews from S&P Global's CERAWeek 2026. SmarterMarkets™ was in Houston last week for CERAWeek to partner with S&P Global. We sat down with participants at the energy industry's most influential annual conference. The theme for this year's conference was Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology, and Geopolitics – and the implications of the conflict in Iran were on everyone's mind. We've compiled a selection of those interviews into this Special Episode of SmarterMarkets™. If you would like to listen to the full interviews, they are available on the SmarterMarkets™ Presents media portal. They're also available on our second podcast channel, SmarterMarkets™ Presents. Our guests are: Arjun Murti – Partner at Veriten & Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack Susan Sakmar – Visiting Professor at University of Houston Law Center & Board Member of Flex LNG Jeff Currie – Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways, Carlyle Radhika Krishnan – Chief Product and Technology Officer, Quorum Software Michael Greenstone – Director, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) David Keith – Founding Faculty Director, Climate Systems Engineering Initiative, University of Chicago

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.We spent the past week in Houston at the always great CERAWeek conference hosted by S&P Global. On behalf of all my colleagues at Veriten, a big thank you to Dan Yergin and the entire S&P Global team for putting on a great event. CERAWeek 2026 came amidst what is now week four of the War in Iran and the continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We are recording this late on Wednesday, March 25 and as always hope that by the time this is released on Saturday morning, the Strait will have reopened to normal flows and the war ended. Its ongoing closure is simply untenable for the global economy. It is ultimately not good for energy companies, which is our focus area, even if current oil and gas pricing is elevated. A quick end to the war and the reopening of the Strait is the best-case scenario for energy companies everywhere.This week we'll provide some takeaways from CERAWeek 2026. We will bucket our takeaways in 3 key themes: (1) Macro outlook and scenarios; (2) The day after the war ends, what comes next for energy companies? (3) What unexpected changes will come from this crisis?Our current plan is to not publish Super-Spiked over Easter/Passover weekend. We hope everyone is able to take some time off.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 11. As we think everyone by now realizes, the Strait Hormuz is a critical bottleneck to not only crude oil exports from the region but also LNG from Qatar. We have no idea how long the current war will last. The longer it goes, the greater the risk of a painful energy crisis materializing. We do not think that fact is lost on anyone that is participating in or observing the conflict.In this kind of very acute situation, an energy crisis would be bad for everyone be it citizens, governments, and even traditional energy companies over the long run as whatever benefit accrues from short term price appreciation would likely be lost from future economic weakness. No reasonable person in and around the energy sector is rooting for war. Even if shipping were to resume in coming days or weeks out of the Straight, we suspect the realization of what has long been considered a “worse case” geopolitical risk for oil markets—and now LNG—will motivate countries to pursue changes that mitigate this risk of future disruptions.This week we have two key messages: (1) we revisit our “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction framework we first rolled out in March 2005 at Goldman Sachs. It was a career call for us. The basic points of our analysis we think stand the test of time. (2) we discuss various diversification opportunities that we think countries will or should take to reduce the risk of future disruptions long after this current crisis has hopefully abated.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.SLIDE 1: Cover SlideSLIDE 2: Strait of Hormuz: Long-Term Impacts On Oil, LNG* How will it be secured in an age of drones?* Inverse COVID: Refreshing our oil demand destruction framework.* Baseload energy diversification opportunities:* US Natural Gas: Lots of growth, where to invest?* Coal: A base-load domestic fuel, why not an EU comeback?* Nuclear: Back in vogue, but how long to grow again in US/EU?* Considerations: (1) What's real, what's hype? (2) Where in value chain to invest? (3) Who do you trust to allocate capital?SLIDE 3: Revisiting Our Oil “Super-Spike” FrameworkKey points:* We used the US since it has sizeable demand and freely floating retail gasoline prices.* Wider economy structurally outperforms gasoline.* But that means a much higher nominal price is required to destroy demand versus a prior cycle.* Gasoline demand is highly inelastic.* Both absolute price and rate of change are relevant.How to read the table/graph:* The graph shows historic gasoline spending (demand x retail price) relative to personal consumer expenditures.* Retail gasoline price equals the crude oil price + refining margin (to turn crude oil into gasoline) + gasoline taxes + “all other” (retail margin + other costs).* The table holds retail margin plus all other as constant and shows sensitivities to varying levels of gasoline spending as a % of PCE and refining margins.Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction frameworkSource: Bloomberg, EIA, Veriten.SLIDE 4: US Natural Gas: Lots of Growth, Where to Invest?US natural gas markets have doubled over past 20 years and are on-track to grow substantially over next decade. US natural gas resource is plentiful; infrastructure-enabled access to higher-valued end markets is critical.Exhibit 2: Global demand for US natural gasSource: EIA, Veriten.Exhibit 3: Gas value chain CROCISource: FactSet, VeritenSLIDE 5: Coal: A Baseload Domestic Fuel, EU Comeback?Growth in coal in China has swamped the reduction in EU and US coal use. We see no reason the EU & US could not, at a minimum, reverse the declines seen over the last 25 years. It's a drop in the bucket! Moving factories from the EU & US to China is net negative for carbon emissions, geopolitical security, and labor markets in the EU and US.Exhibit 4: Size of global power marketsSource: Energy Institute, VeritenExhibit 5: Growth in coal consumptionSource: Energy Institute, VeritenSLIDE 6: Nuclear: Back In Vogue, But How Long To Grow?Nuclear is again recognized as an important baseload fuel that can favorably add to system diversification. China is growing rapidly versus stagnation in the US and decline in EU. What opportunities exist to improve execution in the developed world? What is the viability (vs hype) of advanced technologies to boost growth?Exhibit 6: Nuclear generation by country/regionSource: Energy Institute, Veriten.⚡️On A Personal Note: 21 Years Later…

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We are coming to you from Houston following my participation earlier this week at the Aspen Institute's Winter Energy Forum. This week we provide thoughts on Iran and the latest Middle East conflict. As usual, our focus is on what the long-term implications could be for companies and investors. Our ten initial long-term takeaways are as follows: 1 - Super Vol remains our commodity macro mantra. 2 - Middle East turmoil now as relevant to LNG (liquefied natural gas) as crude oil. 3 - Overhyped oil glut call. 4 - Energy source/technology diversification is a must for countries. 5 - Renewables and other new energies will continue to gain traction. 6 - The case for coal. 7- The case for Canada. 8 – Use unexpected free cash flow to reinforce fortress balance sheets. 9 - Undisruptable oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals. 10 - Commerce over chaos and a brighter future for the Middle East.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We would encourage those of you that only listen to or watch the video podcasts to go and read our written post from last week (here), as we plan to be more inclusive of coal, copper, and critical minerals going forward to go along with our analysis and commentary on traditional and new energy and power. The title was “Undirsuptable” and focused on the significant profitability and growth opportunities we see in oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals amidst the A.I. boom and our new era of geopolitical competition.This week we want to address a comment we received last weekend about how we think about terminal value in especially the legacy areas of energy; we will add coal and copper to that list. In a nutshell, that was the point of last week's post! Here's the punch line: Yes, we think traditional energy, coal, and copper companies are as a group deserving of terminal value recognition in their share prices especially for the leading companies that have most clearly demonstrated the potential for long-term returns and growth. We see the three key drivers of terminal value recognition as being (1) rising demand for all the raw material inputs to modern life; (2) double-digit full-cycle corporate-level returns on capital; (3) growth and risk taking.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We are still in road warrior mode, having only been at our primary residence for 13 of the first 45 days of 2026. Though I have to say, industry events this year in Miami, Whistler, and Cabo will leave many of you not feeling too sorry for us. So this week we have a very quick FAQ on the “take risk” messaging we've been using for 2026, and they are all around the theme of how to think about corporate strategy in a world of maturing US shale oil.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we have some fun with Bloomberg pictures we created that highlight the information one can sometimes glean about traditional energy from other commodity markets like copper and other metals and minerals. Through the first half of the 2000s super-cycle, we used to spend a bunch of time looking at copper, steel, and iron ore for hints on what was going on with China, global oil demand, and broader macro conditions. Like oil, those other areas are plays on global GDP growth and infrastructure expansion, CAPEX if you will. Today, we think we are in the early days of another one of those cycles via the combination of AI & digital transformation, expanding energy access, and growing geopolitical competition when it comes to both industrial reshoring and also military. We see each of those trends contributing to a virtuous GDP cycle. In the five pictures we go through today, we show that AI & tech started the trend, which then spread to power markets and most recently to copper and other metals. We think oil markets will be the next to benefit. Our base case view has been that oil is in a bottoming phase characterized by perhaps modest oversupply in 1H2026 but no oil glut, and that the next upcycle takes hold either later this year or 2027. Either way, now is the time for energy companies to be thinking about where they want to take risk in order to drive shareholder value for the decade ahead.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We are just back from nine days on the road across the western U.S. and British Columbia. A key theme we highlighted at both the Goldman Sachs energy conference in Miami earlier this month and at a CIBC dinner panel last week in Whistler was the need for companies to take risk. Three points we discuss in the video podcast: (1) Why the “take risk” messaging now?: (2) The distinction between large-cap and SMID-cap risk taking; and (3) SMID-cap opportunities.

We continue our Setting Course series this week by welcoming Arjun Murti back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio. Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss the big themes he sees in energy for 2026, including the electrical power super cycle.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.2026 kicked off with the dramatic news of the US's incursion into Venezuela and capture of its president Nicolas Maduro. Protests against the ruling regime in Iran have also captured the world's attention. We will aim to put those events into the context of our long-term oil macro view, which of course is our focus at Super-Spiked. As a reminder and as a disclaimer, we look at these events through our lens as an energy equity research analyst and a current partner at Veriten. There is no commentary in this video about specific companies.⚡️On A Personal Note: RIP Bob Weir

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.Last week's video podcast was a look back on our Big Themes for 2025 that we highlighted in January (here). We did pretty well with the 3 main themes, but not so good on 4 sub-topics we teased. We will aim to be better targeted on what we highlight for 2026. This week we evaluate how we did on our “Top 10 Tactical Calls” that we published in late January (here). We use a “Good Call” or “Bad Call” framework to assess how we did. Spoiler alert: Overall we did well, but were far from perfect. Finally, we do a broader assessment on how we are feeling about major Super-Spiked themes and topic areas after what has now been 4 years of publishing. What are we proud of, what if anything are we not, and what are we thinking looking ahead. We heard from many of you that appreciated that we did a proper assessment of our calls. Someone even said we were a tough self-grader. It baffles us why everyone doesn't take this approach. Companies put out targets or promises, Wall Street analysts make calls and publish outlook reports, academia and policy shops do their own version of opinion making. All those groups, in our humble opinion, would benefit from doing their own self-assessment. People like them! It's popular. It builds credibility and accountability. This will be our final Super-Spiked of 2025. We will return most likely on January 10th. On behalf of everyone associated with Super-Spiked and Veriten, we wish you and your families a Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and a great Holiday Season!!!

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.In this week's video podcast we take a look back at the major themes we highlighted at the start of this year in a written post on January 11, 2025 (here). The 3 major topic areas were (1) energy scenario normalization; (2) power; and (3) how we thought about various energy sources and technologies. We had also teased several sub-themes about crude oil, China, M&A, and US/Canada policy. With nearly a year's hindsight, we did decently well on the three major topic areas, but left a lot to be desired on the four bonus topics. We believe it is always a good idea with those kind of posts to revisit how things played out.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We are coming to you this week from the Middle East. We are in the middle of a great trip that has been put together by the Center on Global Energy Policy, where we are an advisory board member. As of this recording, we have spent time in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, with 2 more stops still to come. We are going to have to keep this video short amidst a packed schedule, so will limit our comments to some quick macro takeaways on (1) oil markets; (2) China's manufacturing dominance; and (3) other energy sources.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck using the blue Download button below.This week we dive into the global macro picture around the power super cycle theme, what we are calling Power Surge! There is a lot of attention especially here in the U.S. about the domestic opportunity set. We share that enthusiasm but view the power super cycle as a global theme as well.Some of the major questions we hope to address either in this video podcast or in future weeks include: Does a power super-cycle imply an acceleration in global GDP growth like we saw 20 years ago with the China/BRICs expansion theme? Will a power super-cycle lift all energy boats or just some? What might be the drivers of different energy sources doing better or worse than expected in the coming decade? And finally what are the best ways for corporates and investors to play the power super-cycle theme? This week we focus on: (1) global trends in power vs oil demand; (2) regional variations in growth. Key messages: (1) the idea that we will have a power super-cycle but plateauing oil demand is non-sensical...both will grow (2) US appears to be joining notable emerging markets as a pro-growth region.

In last week's Super-Spiked (here), we wrote about Power being the third super-cycle in our lifetime. In this week's short video podcast, we wanted to share some thoughts on how the early days of the China-BRICs expansion compares and contrasts with the current AI-driven mania and its impact on power markets. We are calling this “Then and Now” with the aim of trying to take the best lessons from the last super-cycle so we can be better prepared and hopefully do a better job navigating the current one. We have five points to make:(1) Global GDP acceleration coming?Will we see an acceleration in global GDP back above 3.5% and possibly 4% versus the slower 3% or so that we have been seeing in recent years? One of the big things most oil analysts got wrong early in the China/BRICs period was that global GPD was accelerating, in that example led by China but ultimately spilling over to many other parts of the world. Today, we see signs that energy usage in both China and the United States is on-track to be better than many had feared for 2025. That's not the same thing as saying we are back to boom times like 20+ years ago. But it does bear watching.(2) All commodity areas benefitted from the China/BRICs expansionOil most notably, but natural gas, coal, steel, copper, etc., all had their own period of strong performance. It is our assessment that oil was the most important of the China/BRICs commodities given its size and global criticality. This go round we see oil as merely a beneficiary of a power super cycle, not its driver. And to be clear since some of you have asked, oil markets will benefit from general economic expansion that will come from a Power Surge as well as the increased construction activity from building data centers. We are not arguing for oil-fired power generation per se, though perhaps we do get some of that as well. Diesel generators come to mind.(3) Model out a super-cycle on revenues and earningsFor winning sectors, make an effort to examine what top of cycle conditions can truly look like. As an example, at a time oil prices were around $40/bbl, we ran scenarios as to what $100/bbl oil would like, which is very different than the +/- $10 sensitivities most analysts would run. For some of you, that may not mean much. What we are saying is play-out as best as you can what a multi-year bull market looks like and don't anchor yourself to what was a different recent past. It is not about placing a 100% probability on that upside coming true, but if the probability is greater than zero, model it as best as you can.(4) Figure out the signposts for peakTry to figure out the signposts for what would truly cause the cycle to peak and then turn. In the China/BRICs area, we sought to model demand destruction pricing which we originally estimated would occur at $105/bbl. That was partly correct. It certainly helped frame the oil price upside. But for oil and gas equities, we did not give adequate consideration to what we now call our “Quadrilateral of Death” which means that peak return on capital for the sector was what mattered most for oil and gas equities, not the raw oil price peak. As we noted in last week's post, we suspect the Quadrilateral of Death is not the correct analytical framework for most power-oriented sectors. We need to figure out what is, so we can better assess when this super-cycle has truly reached its half-life. We think we have some time to figure this out. (5) Navigating volatilityThe final area to think through is how as an investor or corporate do you want to navigate volatility. A great example was the Deep Seek sell off last December. I am sure there will be many more to come where the first thought from people will be “power theme had a great run, it's now over, sell the stocks”. My personal style is the buy-and-hold long term approach and trying to figure out the ultimate super-cycle peak. For those of you that are truly good short-term traders, have at it. Everyone else, you're going to have to decide for yourself. For corporates, the trick is often understanding what the long-term steady state will be and your ability to adapt with the mix of assets and balance sheet that you have if conditions are materially different than expected. An example is that some companies and businesses adapted faster and better to the move from $100/bbl to a sustained post-super-cycle $50-$60/bbl range than did others. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We have just wrapped up an especially heavy 3-week stretch of board, management, and industry meetings. Included have been various meetings in and around the power sector. As someone who has spent his career on the other side of energy--i.e., oil & gas--it has been a lot of fun ramping up on the power side of the business. Historically oil & gas and power have been essentially two completely separate industries, each with their own macro drivers, corporate outlooks, and analyst coverage. And while today many differences of course remain, there are a growing number of areas of convergence. In this short video, we will give a few thoughts from our recent travels that we will expand upon in coming months. There are five points we want to highlight:First, we think energy is in the early days of the 3rd major super-cycle in our lifetime. The first was the Arab Oil Embargo years of the 1970s and the second was the Chia/BRICs expansion of the 2000s. Both were at their core crude oil market events. Geopolitical security was the dominant narrative of the 1970s. Billion-person scale emerging market (EM) demand growth characterized the latter. The current super-cycle marries both drivers but it is power, rather than crude oil, that is at the heart of this era. AI datacenters rightfully get a lot of attention. But aging developed market grids that need new investment is also an important trend. Perhaps most importantly, the substantial unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth will arguably be the greatest driver of global power demand. This super-cycle is all about global power needs on multiple fronts. Second point and a key lesson from the mis-guided “The Energy Transition” era is that the world clearly is going to need all forms of energy, including many newer technologies where the timing of scaling economics is still uncertain. Examples of that last point are nuclear SMRs and enhanced geothermal to name just two. Power is an enabling driver of crude oil demand in the developing world. We suspect this is most visible in Africa today as an example. It is interesting and ironic: growth in renewables power is boosting oil demand.Third point: energy sources and technologies are not in competition with each other for a finite pool of demand. That is the energy substitution argument being trotted out by those that in recent years believed in The Energy Transition. Rather, relative economics, reliability, and geopolitical security are going to cause periods of strong and weaker demand at various points of time for different areas. As an example, LNG priced at world oil prices we do not think displaces domestic coal demand in places like India and China. But it is a complementary and diversifying fuel for power generation which is important to having a healthy power market. And new areas like LNG trucks can help reduce dependence on crude oil imports from what would otherwise be the case. Again, it is additive, not substitutive. Fourth, where crude oil cycles are inherently global in nature, power is typically highly local or regional, but today also has a global overlay via EM growth. Fifth, we are perhaps most optimistic to see major energy consumers, in particular Big Tech and Big Industrials, proactively engaging in energy macro and policy discussions. We see this at Veriten via an expanding and increasingly diversified client base. We see it in the many meetings we have attended. This in our view significantly raises the odds that we move away from the divisive rhetoric and policies that characterized The Energy Transition era to one that appropriately prioritizes energy's natural hierarchy of needs.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We are going to go back to the future this week to discuss the seemingly verboten topic of “sustainability.” Believe it or not, it is actually one of the most asked for topics at the various industry, board and management meetings we have spoken at this Fall. It's never the first question and usually comes towards the end when a brave sole that likely works in this area asks “where do you think the topic of sustainability is headed?” As with everything we do, our focus is on how energy companies should think about the topic with a view toward the decade ahead—not today, not just the next 2.5 years, but what will stand the test time and the inevitable pendulum swings from what investors and politicians claim they want.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We are in the midst of another heavy travel stretch so it's going to be a short video this week. Three quick topics this week: (1) Takeaways from the recent energy outlooks that have been published? (2) Contrarian views on recent data points; (3) Why we think the current oil glut debate misses the bigger picture.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.For the past month or so we have been pushing back on the “oil glut” narrative and the pervasive oil gloom that has existed really since Liberation Day in early April of this year, which coincided with news of an accelerated unwind of OPEC quota cuts. Another week has gone by. We are now nearly at the end of September and firmly in the post summer, pre-winter “shoulder months” period for refinery runs that in prior periods of weak balances has seen crude soften. At least through the September 24th recording date of this video, crude oil prices are hanging in there around the mid-$60s.This week we check-in on where traditional energy stands in terms of growth and profitability, which are the drivers of absolute and relative equity performance. As we have previously noted, the biggest challenge the sector faces is not unfavorable narratives from leading macro agencies or environmental activists, but a now nearly 2-year period of EPS underperformance and a softening in profitability metrics. Our two key messages this week are (1) we believe we are now much closer to the trough of what we think has been a 2-2.5-year mini-downcycle following peak oil prices seen immediately after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. and (2) As a result of where current profitability is and where we think it is headed in coming years, Energy should close the gap between its current discounted 3% market cap weighting in favor of its 5% earnings weighting in the S&P 500.It remains our view that 2020 marked the bottom of a structural downcycle that began in 2008 and that 2025 will ultimately prove to be year 5 of a structurally better period for profitability that we expect to last through at least the end of this decade. We reiterate our long-standing call that the energy sector will return to a market cap weighting in the S&P 500 closer to its historic 8%-10% range.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We have started a heavy Fall travel schedule, with our annual talk at the Oxford Energy Seminar last week and a corporate event in the Rocky Mountains this past week. We wanted to provide a trio of “long-takes” that are jumping out at us: (1) a burst in energy policy rationality and normalization that is being seen from three areas that were previously all in in "The Energy Transition"--California, Canada, and the IEA. (2) we continue to see mounting evidence that fears of an "oil glut" are way overdone, though we likely still need to get through potential shoulder month, seasonal softness over the next 4-8 weeks. Regardless, we believe we are in a bottoming phase for oil-leveraged energy equities which have been very out of favor. (3) A reminder that it is the outlook for returns and growth, not “peak demand” or “oil glut” narratives the IEA or Street analysts, that will drive energy equities.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.As all of you that have been watching our video podcasts or reading our posts over the years by now surely know, our focus at Super-Spiked and at Veriten has been on the long-term outlook for the energy sector, not the shorter-term oil price guessing game. But in recent weeks, we have not been able to resist weighing in on what we think is an excessively bearish consensus view of oil prices—the perceived massive oil glut—that has been weighing heavily on energy equity sentiment since the early April so-called "Liberation Day" tariff announcements that coincided with OPEC+ accelerating the unwind of a series of voluntary production cuts. That double whammy has driven an overwhelming consensus sentiment to be bearish oil demand while also assuming a surge in both non-OPEC and OPEC crude supply would drive oil prices to $50 or lower in 2025. But we are now 5.5 months past that early April bearish shift, and crude oil prices, at least so far, are proving far more resilient than expected even as OPEC+ has made incremental moves to unwind production cuts. Last week in a written post (here), we linked the excessive bearish near-term sentiment to a similar overhang that exists on the long-term oil view, where there is still a lingering let's call it a "net zero world" overhang that crude oil demand will peak in coming years or at best have minimal growth. We have observed that using OPEC Research analyses, rather than the IEA as a baseline, shows far less cyclical or structural crude oil oversupply. Yes, there is a still some softness that might be expected for coming months, but nothing like the "oil glut" that everyone fears.This week we follow up on last week's written post on this topic to set the record straight on a couple of items, address pushbacks to our pushback to anti-oil and gas macro biases in short-term analyses, and raise some new points on the near- and long-term oil macro outlook. There are 4 major areas we will discuss: (1) how we are thinking about OPEC+'s quota unwind; (2) China oil demand; (3) the role of US shale going forward; and (4) is there any chance the oil glut bears could still be proven correct.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We have a bonus Super-Spiked video podcast on a week we were not expecting to publish due to a college drop off. But last weekend we couldn't resist digging into trying to understand why crude oil prices have been far more resilient in the face of unexpected OPEC quota increases and a seemingly lackluster economic backdrop. Our punchline is that while we agree there is risk of oil price softness in the back-half of this year and early 2026, underlying crude oil supply/demand balances are not anywhere near as oversupplied as consensus fears. We believe fears of a crash and potential extended bear market are way overdone. We are also gaining confidence that by the time we get to 2H2026 and 2027, oil price risk shifts more meaningfully to the upside. The main points of difference in our more constructive outlook are (1) to disaggregate black crude oil from the more widely reported and followed overall liquids figures; and (2) to give greater consideration to OPEC Research's Monthly Oil Market Report versus the more broadly used equivalent report (Oil Market Report) from the IEA. Over the past month, we have published several posts (here, here, and here) that have examined the long-term outlook from various macro forecasting agencies, consultants, and oil companies. We conclude OPEC Research leads the pack on being most realistic and pragmatic and was least impacted by “net zero / energy transition” madness of the prior 4-5 years. That doesn't mean they are necessarily better at short-term supply/demand balances, but we don't think they should be entirely ignored or dismissed either. As a reminder, at Super-Spiked and Veriten, our focus is on the long-term outlook for energy markets and companies. We have zero interest in joining the short-term oil price guessing game that the Street and others tend to focus on. But in this case, the prevailing bearish narrative around crude oil is so pronounced and at odds with what we are seeing, we thought it worth commenting. It remains our view that prudent risk management suggests oil companies and investors should always be prepared for the potential to have a “normal” trough, which we would describe as low $50s for a 12-month period. Our message today is not to ignore that long-standing advice. But rather to recognize that sentiment is likely way too bearish and that medium- and longer-term risks are skewed toward better outcomes than consensus narratives suggest. Exhibit 1: Underlying “black crude oil” balances using OPEC's MOMR appears significantly less bearish than implied “liquids” oversupply using IEA OMR balancesSource: IEA, OPEC, Veriten.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we extend our “Obliterating Peak Oil Demand” series to take on other mainstream macro narratives with a focus on natural gas. We have to admit, it did not even cross our mind that the outlook for global gas demand was anything other than continued growth for the foreseeable future. In fact, there are a number of high-profile macro forecasters projecting a permanent peak in global natural gas demand by as soon as 2030 and in some cases the mid-2030s. This, in our view, is pure insanity. We will take the over, and in fact the way over, that global natural gas demand will grow for many, many decades into the future.Perhaps we were lulled into a false sense of presumed natural gas growth optimism based on what we think is a broad-based acceptance of US natural gas growth due to LNG export expansion and now AI-driven power demand growth. But we are realizing that a positive view of US growth is not necessarily extending to a positive view on global natural gas growth for some of the major macro forecasting agencies.The final topic we discuss this week is a warning to ignore energy macro forecasters that merely tweak prior "transition" assumptions by pushing them slightly out in time. It was an article in the Financial Times this past week that caught our attention on this front and we would strongly encourage energy executives, investors, and board members to simply ignore and pushback on energy macro outlooks that are not grounded in energy's natural hierarchy of needs, which acknowledges that energy availability and reliability is all everyone everywhere cares about. Macro forecasts that prioritize counting carbon should not be the basis for how to think about capital allocation.Before we dig in, two reminders. If you are listening to this on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, there is a corresponding video you can find on YouTube (here), Substack (here), or Veriten's website (here). And second, this will be our final Super-Spiked of the summer. We will return after Labor Day.Exhibit 1: We do not agree with energy macro forecasting groups that are calling for a peak in global gas demand by 2030 or 2035Source: Energy Institute, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.Exhibit 2: We do not agree with the projected sharp slowdown in global gas consumption growth made by some leading energy macro forecastersSource: Energy Institute, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.Peak natural gas even more non-sensical than oil* The idea that global natural gas demand will peak, or even slow, by 2030 is even more far-fetched than the oil debate.* Global power demand expected to grow at a healthy clip.* 24x7x365 requirement supports base-load natural gas, coal, nuclear.* Geothermal, while worth studying, is still unproven at scale; hydro is niche.* Solar + batteries will grow in areas with high solar radiation. Wind is also location specific.* Natural gas does need to compete on overall price/cost economics with alternatives.* Access to capital matters in natural gas, which lacks the mega caps seen in the oil value chain.Don't fall for “delayed transition” narratives* There is now broad-based recognition that the “easy energy transition”” is a bad joke that has adverse societal consequences.* Our Obliterating Peak Oil Demand series, which we have extended to coal and natural gas, illustrates the absurdity.* The mindset that everyone deserves to be energy rich is gaining in acceptance.* What to watch: (1) With upcoming high profile energy outlooks, watch for “delayed transition” language, which is a cop out. (2) If you are a corporate executive, board member, or investor, don't fall for it in making capital allocation decisions.Exhibit 3: Don't fall for “delayed transition” narrativesSource: Financial Times.⚡️ On A Personal Note: Summer Reading List

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Last week we did a check-in on how the answers to the tactical questions for 2025 we posed back in January were faring (here). This week we go through our Big Themes for 2025 which we had also highlighted back in January (here). We look at what's in and what's out through the lens of macro frameworks, public policy implications, and finally corporate strategy and energy sub-sector outlooks. We will publish our final summer Super-Spiked next week before taking a 2-week hiatus until after Labor Day. BIG THEMES FOR 2025* Energy scenario normalization * Power surge: This generation's super-cycle * Energy sources and technologies MACRO FRAMEWORK IMPLICATIONS * Net Zero and “The Energy Transition” are out. Energy policies that will drive GDP growth and meeting energy's natural hierarchy of needs are in. * Solving for everyone on Earth someday becoming energy rich is in. Assuming people will choose to stay poor is out. * OPEC Research is in. Energy macro agencies and oil companies that were driven by “net zero” narratives are out (for now). What to watch: * BP Energy Outlook (Sep), IEA WEO (Oct) * Africa's significant TAM (total address market): Up to 60 million b/d of desired oil demand versus 5 million b/d todayPOLICY IMPLICATIONS * Energy policy that drives long-term affordability, reliability, and security are in. Policies that start with counting CO2 are out. * IRA is out. Meeting AI demand is in. * Some of the above is in. All of the above was never in. * Regions that are long energy resource should all be in, but some are still out (California) or not sufficiently in (Canada). What to watch: * US natural gas midstream infrastructure * Canada oil and natural gas export infrastructure * Reliability, affordability reforms in California, Western Europe CORPORATE IMPLACATIONS * Companies exposed to power value chain are in. Natural gas is in. Oil value chain is still out. * Solar + batteries are still in. Wind is out. * Nuclear is in. “Green” hydrogen is out. Geothermal hoping to be in. * IPPs are in. SMID oils (E&P, OFS) are out, though SMID OFS diversifying into power are in. * Companies driving new technology development in regions that are short energy resource are in… * …Companies that exist to exploit rich-world government subsidies in the name of CO2 accounting are out.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we check-in on how our “Top 10 Tactical Questions for 2025” published on January 25, 2025 (here) are faring. MACRO ORIENTED (1) Will energy's S&P weighting increase in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far, but narrative discussed is on-track. (2) Will we see energy outlooks from high-profile organizations stop treating “net zero” as if it were the defining issue? Original answer: Change is coming, but will take time and we'll get wishy washy language in 2025. Mid-year progress: This is on-track to happen more quickly than we anticipated. (3) Can oil become great again in 2025? Original answer: No, Super Vol not super-cycle remains our view. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. GEOPOLITICS & POLICY (4) Will the IRA be repealed, reformed, or left alone? Original answer: Reformed. Mid-year progress: Probably we are technically correct in that the IRA was not repealed, but it was so meaningfully gutted that it very much feels like it was repealed. (5) Will Trump make the Arctic great going forward? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Trump Administration is giving the Alaska/Arctic appropriate attention. SUB-SECTOR OUTLOOKS (6) Will power-exposed sectors lead the way in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. (7) What new technology area are you watching more closely to break-out in 2025? Original answer: Autonomous driving. Mid-year progress: The “robo taxi” market is nascent but starting to expand to more areas. M&A (8) Will we see an acceleration of O&G firms enter power markets and, if so, how? Original answer: Yes and organic.Mid-year progress: To be determined. (9) Does the Venture Global IPO signal the tide is turning on energy sector capital formation? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far. (10) Will we see a surprising mega merger in energy? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Hasn't happened yet.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Last week we published a written post that took a fresh look at a long standing theme of ours “obliterating peak oil demand” (here). We dug into OPEC Research's most recent World Oil Outlook report (here) to compare OPEC's more optimistic view of long-term oil demand to more bearish forecasts from the IEA and frankly many other leading energy voices. Our own outlook is closely aligned with OPEC's in recognizing the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth. The idea that anyone can know today that oil demand is going to permanently peak within the next decade is something we push back hard on. That post has sparked a number of questions, five of which we will aim to address today.Our On A Personal Note this week remembers heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne, who passed away on July 21. I was fortunate to catch a Black Sabbath reunion tour in 2016.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope everyone enjoyed a great 4th of July holiday. This week we will start to flush out a new theme of ours, what we are calling “some of the above, depending on country and region" as the better macro and policy framing for energy. It will undoubtedly get shortened to simply "some of the above" and is meant to reflect that the energy sources and technologies that might make sense for one country or region might not make sense for another. Super-Spiked was created as a protest to that narrow definition of "The Energy Transition" that said all areas must quickly switch only into renewables + EVs and out of fossil fuels within an absurdly short time frame. That movement never made sense and we think is being relegated to the dustbin of history. But its replacement with terms like "all of the above" and "energy pragmatism" are imperfect and imprecise in a different direction. Pragmatism can mean many different things to many different people and both phrases imply an "anything goes" mindset that frankly isn't how countries or companies are going to act. Instead, practically speaking, the choices that will be made are "some of the above, depending on country or region."

The global energy landscape is shifting right now. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, debates about peak oil demand, and waning support for climate action in some parts of the world are challenging long-held assumptions about the pace and scale of the energy transition. Confronting these complex challenges requires an understanding of the forces that drive energy markets and prices.  So where is global energy consumption headed? Are reports of oil's demise exaggerated? And as countries prioritize energy security and economic growth, what does "pragmatism" really mean for the energy transition? This week, Jason Bordoff speaks with Arjun Murti about the state of global energy markets and of the energy transition. Arjun is a partner with Veriten, an energy research and investment firm. He also publishes the Super-Spiked newsletter. Previously, Arjun served as co-director of Americas equity research for Goldman Sachs. Prior to that, he was a buy-side equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Investment Management. He also serves on the Center on Global Energy Policy advisory board. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive producer.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Ahead of what will be a holiday week off to celebrate America's Birthday, we have five thoughts we wanted to share this week around key themes, research ideas, and some what ifs that we are thinking about:(1) What will it take to get the traditional energy sector, in particular those exposed to the crude oil value chain going again? (2) Private versus public company mindset and opportunities,(3) Domestic coal.(4) "Some of the above" as the correct macro framework for specific regions.(5) A changing Middle East.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we provide "long takes" on the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Long takes are our attempt to provide perspective on the long-term implications--as opposed to "hot takes"--of current events. We recorded this mid-day U.S. time on Friday, June 13.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we wanted to address two questions that have come up from our recent posts and videos. The first on why are we not more pound-the-table bullish on crude oil after noting how inexpensive it is versus a bunch of other commodities. The second question is what kind of capital return could work is on what kind of “yield vehicle” could be possible for shale pure-plays that do not want to sell to a larger company and where diversification wouldn't make sense.

This week we meet the second dinosaur ever discovered, Iguanodon! Find out how its image has changed over the past 200 years to the dinosaur we know today. In the news, Aaron discusses the newest standards for UK zoos. All this and more. The cupboard is open come on in!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we will have some fun with Bloomberg charts as it relates to the crude oil macro. We noted in our The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood Amidst Major Macro Cross Currents written post from two weeks ago (here) that crude oil remains a critically important energy source albeit with conflicting cross currents that are both bullish (US shale maturity tailwinds) and bearish (China slowdown headwinds, OPEC+ supply increases). Whatever one's view of oil, it is still a huge driver of sentiment toward the energy sector and of course Energy's weighting in the S&P 500 is driven by the largest oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc. One thing is clear from all the charts, oil looks inexpensive to gold, copper, and refining margins and is at the low end of its recent band to Henry Hub natural gas and TTF. Oil is the big laggard and it is casting a pall on Energy's S&P 500 weighting, which has sunk back to a dismal 3% of the S&P 500 versus a Russia-Ukraine high of 5% and its pre-2015 range of 8%-12%. The question is whether oil and oil equities are values or value traps. As a spoiler alert, we are not sure we are actually going to be able to definitively answer that today, and the answer in part depends on one's time horizon. The short-term looks to be more challenging, whereas over the long run we do not believe “the end of oil” is anywhere near. To be clear, over the remainder of this decade, we are more optimistic on growth in power generation—US and global—natural gas demand and for that matter other power generation energy sources like solar + batteries and non-OECD coal. Equities favorably exposed to those trends should perform accordingly. But for the Energy sector broadly speaking to regain a much larger S&P weighing, oil is still the king.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We continue our series of “long takes” amidst the macro mess we are slogging through and wanted to hit upon a couple of observations coming out of a surprisingly interesting quarterly earnings season that we think are relevant as corporates and investors think through long-term implications and opportunities. The first comes courtesy of Diamondback Energy: Is US shale oil peaking? And if it is, what does that mean for the energy macro. The second comes from Next Era Energy which made some interesting remarks about the relative economics of various generation sources juxtaposed against massive US power demand growth. The first two points then lead to the obvious question of how should companies think about business evolution, M&A and strategy during a period of uncertainty and turmoil to best position themselves for the decade ahead. For investors, who and what do you want to own?

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We wanted to follow up on the Special Edition episode of this week's Close of Business Tuesday video podcast where we interviewed Mark Lashier, the CEO of Phillips 66. P66 is in the midst of a proxy battle with Elliott Advisors. I will refer everyone to that episode (here) as well as the published materials from both the company (here) and Elliott (here) for more information. At Super-Spiked, it is our self-imposed policy to not discuss individual companies and so this is not P66 dedicated episode. What we are looking to do though is discuss a few topics about how we think about corporate strategy including (1) being diversified vs a pure play, (2) when it makes sense to restructure and split apart and when it doesn't, (3) when does external activism make sense, and (4) how to be your own internal activist. We are in a macro environment where a lot is changing in terms of the outlook for China, the increasing maturity of U.S. shale oil, faster expected power generation and the role of different energy sources to meet that growth. Geopolitics remain front and center. We expect oil demand to grow but it's going to be choppy. Natural gas, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and NGLs (natural gas liquids) are expected to grow much faster, but what is the right business model to participate? Will upstream companies need to start looking overseas again? And if so, who and how is the best way to do that? There are a lot of moving parts. As companies consider potentially meaningful strategic actions, there is the risk of a disconnect between what some will think is the best course of action in the near term versus the evaluation of risk/reward opportunities in the long term. As companies take steps, some will be second-guessed and the specter of rising shareholder activism will be there.To be clear, different analysts will have different takes on this topic and what companies should do. There is no one-size-fits-all answer to any of this stuff. It can be frustrating or perhaps annoying that luck and timing can matter a lot, but so does good governance and management. No one bats 1.000. But structural underperformance is neither sustainable nor OK either.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We will start with an apology to those of you that prefer the written notes but with the Super Vol nature of this tariff trade war and the dramatic market moves, we are going to do another short video. We tried our best to avoid “hot takes” and stick with how to think about what it means for the Energy sector over the long run—i.e., the “long takes.” For companies and investors that are not trying to day trade this crazy market, there are some fundamental questions about how to think about the macro, CAPEX, M&A, and what to do with so much uncertainty. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We had intended to publish a written note this week that we thought had some interesting analysis on energy sub-sector profitability over what we consider to be the 2021-2024 mini-cycle. But President Trump's April 2 “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event squashed those publication plans. OPEC decided to add to the noise with its own surprise announcement that it would add additional volumes. As of the April 3 close, energy equities, oil commodities, and the broader stock market have been hit hard and we have pivoted this week to producing a short video podcast to share our thoughts. With the major caveat that we are one day into whatever this potential new paradigm is—and given our aversion to providing “hot takes” on the news of the day—we wanted to offer some initial long-term perspectives on macro developments, i.e., “long takes” so to speak.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's video is a follow up to last week's written post titled "What Does Energy Pragmatism Mean for Climate & Sustainability" (here). We wanted to expand on some of the points in our own voice and also address various questions and pushback we have received.Our key messages this week: (1) Energy pragmatism means a return to energy's natural hierarchy of needs, rather than the inverted version that pretended anyone anywhere prioritizes carbon emission reductions over energy availability and reliability; (2) investment flows into non-fossil fuel energy sources are not impacted by western world virtue signaling, as the climate bubble actually peaked way back in 2021; (3) the other 7 billion people in developing markets hold the key to how energy markets will evolve in coming decades, not us Lucky 1 Billioners.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This past week we attended CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Pragmatism, balance, and realism have been the themes uttered by just about every single speaker. Some have long been in this camp. Others are new. All are welcomed. We are still embracing inclusivity at Super-Spiked. Some will say we shouldn't be so forgiving to those people that 5 minutes ago were calling for an end to fossil fuel investment and are now suddenly seeing the light in regards to reliability, geopolitical security, and affordability. You, our loyal subscribers, know where we have been standing all along. It is our mission that the dialogue, understanding, and macro energy policies recognize energy's natural hierarchy of needs, where all anyone anywhere at all times cares about is can I use energy right now. Without energy access there is nothing. So in that spirit, we welcome everyone to the world of pragmatism.Before we get into our Top 10 takeaways from CERAWeek 2025, we would like to offer our congratulations to Dan Yergin, Atul Arya, and everyone at S&P Global for putting on a world class show. We learned a ton and caught up with many friends and colleagues from around the world. There is no conference like CERAWeek that brings together all of the global energy industry in one place.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow up on last week's post that heralded The Rise of the Energy Pragmatism Era (here). No more inverting the hierarchy of needs with non-sensical net-zero-is-all-that-matters energy outlooks that would subjugate vast swaths of humanity to ongoing poverty. We have moved into an exciting and even fun new period for all things energy—new, old and everything in between. Oil & gas is converging with power. Technology and energy are converging in the sense that you can't have the former without the latter. Billion-person scale economies in the developing world are doing whatever it takes to bring wealth to their citizens—all of which is synonymous with energy growth. And for those regions it will be a focus on reliability, affordability, and geopolitics that will motivate an increasingly diverse mix of energy sources and technology. This is not about looking backwards...it's about the path forward.This week's video will start our discussion on new opportunities that could arise as energy pragmatism spreads, in particular to regions that had been most in “climate only” mode. What regions have been left behind that deserve a fresh look? How can we best meet the substantial energy needs of ALL 8 billion people on Earth? Real economics are returning, not unsustainable rich-country government handouts to the wealthiest amongst us. Welcome to The Energy Pragmatism Era!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.The firehose of news flow out of the new Trump administration since, and frankly preceding, his inauguration has not stopped. While US presidents throughout history seem to elicit strong reactions, President Trump inspires a degree of hysteria from those that oppose him and a do-no-wrong deference from his supporters. What we find is that whatever the issue is—it could be domestic spending, sanctions, or tariffs—when someone has an obviously dripping disdain for Trump, it weakens the efficacy of their argument, even if partly accurate. The opposite is also true. We find both extremes to be pretty unhelpful in sorting through what matters. By the time this video podcast is published, President Trump will have only been in office for 4 weeks: there are still 3 years and 48 weeks to go—permanent freak out mode is not sustainable or healthy! In this week's video, which we recorded a little earlier than usual due to some travel this past week, we address a number of questions that have arisen. We are going to do our best to use our equity research analyst's mindset to assess policy actions taken or proposed. This means our only goal is to make the right call and provide the best insight we can for the companies we advise. We will keep our answers focused on how it all might impact the long-term energy macro and corporate strategy.

This holiday weekend on our Inside the Coffeehouse series, we welcome Arjun Murti and Jeff Currie back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio.   Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack. Jeff Currie is Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle.   David Greely sits down with Jeff and Arjun, reuniting these two former Goldman partners and colleagues to share their perspectives on the market, economic, and political forces shaping the future of our energy markets.

We continue our Summer Playlist 2024 this week with Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten and Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss America's energy independence – and what it will take to maintain America's energy exceptionalism to help meet rising global demand into a future of lower carbon and more sustainable energy.

North America holds enough oil and gas reserves to provide cheap, clean, and reliable energy to the rest of the globe for many decades – so why isn't it? Energy analyst Arjun Murti breaks down the key factors at play: capital investors who are wary of uncertain regulatory environments, countries like China and India that won't give up on coal, and a little-known group called the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (which is actually implementing all the terrible ideas that groups like World Economic Forum only talk about). Arjun explains how America – through a new Marshall Plan of government and private sector initiatives – can overcome these roadblocks to become the leader in global energy. Arjun Murti has spent over 30 years as a global energy markets analyst with firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Read his Super-Spiked substack at https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ and follow him on Twitter at @ArjunNMurti