Podcasts about super spiked

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we wanted to address two questions that have come up from our recent posts and videos. The first on why are we not more pound-the-table bullish on crude oil after noting how inexpensive it is versus a bunch of other commodities. The second question is what kind of capital return could work is on what kind of “yield vehicle” could be possible for shale pure-plays that do not want to sell to a larger company and where diversification wouldn't make sense.

This week we meet the second dinosaur ever discovered, Iguanodon! Find out how its image has changed over the past 200 years to the dinosaur we know today. In the news, Aaron discusses the newest standards for UK zoos. All this and more. The cupboard is open come on in!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we will have some fun with Bloomberg charts as it relates to the crude oil macro. We noted in our The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood Amidst Major Macro Cross Currents written post from two weeks ago (here) that crude oil remains a critically important energy source albeit with conflicting cross currents that are both bullish (US shale maturity tailwinds) and bearish (China slowdown headwinds, OPEC+ supply increases). Whatever one's view of oil, it is still a huge driver of sentiment toward the energy sector and of course Energy's weighting in the S&P 500 is driven by the largest oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc. One thing is clear from all the charts, oil looks inexpensive to gold, copper, and refining margins and is at the low end of its recent band to Henry Hub natural gas and TTF. Oil is the big laggard and it is casting a pall on Energy's S&P 500 weighting, which has sunk back to a dismal 3% of the S&P 500 versus a Russia-Ukraine high of 5% and its pre-2015 range of 8%-12%. The question is whether oil and oil equities are values or value traps. As a spoiler alert, we are not sure we are actually going to be able to definitively answer that today, and the answer in part depends on one's time horizon. The short-term looks to be more challenging, whereas over the long run we do not believe “the end of oil” is anywhere near. To be clear, over the remainder of this decade, we are more optimistic on growth in power generation—US and global—natural gas demand and for that matter other power generation energy sources like solar + batteries and non-OECD coal. Equities favorably exposed to those trends should perform accordingly. But for the Energy sector broadly speaking to regain a much larger S&P weighing, oil is still the king.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We continue our series of “long takes” amidst the macro mess we are slogging through and wanted to hit upon a couple of observations coming out of a surprisingly interesting quarterly earnings season that we think are relevant as corporates and investors think through long-term implications and opportunities. The first comes courtesy of Diamondback Energy: Is US shale oil peaking? And if it is, what does that mean for the energy macro. The second comes from Next Era Energy which made some interesting remarks about the relative economics of various generation sources juxtaposed against massive US power demand growth. The first two points then lead to the obvious question of how should companies think about business evolution, M&A and strategy during a period of uncertainty and turmoil to best position themselves for the decade ahead. For investors, who and what do you want to own?

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We wanted to follow up on the Special Edition episode of this week's Close of Business Tuesday video podcast where we interviewed Mark Lashier, the CEO of Phillips 66. P66 is in the midst of a proxy battle with Elliott Advisors. I will refer everyone to that episode (here) as well as the published materials from both the company (here) and Elliott (here) for more information. At Super-Spiked, it is our self-imposed policy to not discuss individual companies and so this is not P66 dedicated episode. What we are looking to do though is discuss a few topics about how we think about corporate strategy including (1) being diversified vs a pure play, (2) when it makes sense to restructure and split apart and when it doesn't, (3) when does external activism make sense, and (4) how to be your own internal activist. We are in a macro environment where a lot is changing in terms of the outlook for China, the increasing maturity of U.S. shale oil, faster expected power generation and the role of different energy sources to meet that growth. Geopolitics remain front and center. We expect oil demand to grow but it's going to be choppy. Natural gas, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and NGLs (natural gas liquids) are expected to grow much faster, but what is the right business model to participate? Will upstream companies need to start looking overseas again? And if so, who and how is the best way to do that? There are a lot of moving parts. As companies consider potentially meaningful strategic actions, there is the risk of a disconnect between what some will think is the best course of action in the near term versus the evaluation of risk/reward opportunities in the long term. As companies take steps, some will be second-guessed and the specter of rising shareholder activism will be there.To be clear, different analysts will have different takes on this topic and what companies should do. There is no one-size-fits-all answer to any of this stuff. It can be frustrating or perhaps annoying that luck and timing can matter a lot, but so does good governance and management. No one bats 1.000. But structural underperformance is neither sustainable nor OK either.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We will start with an apology to those of you that prefer the written notes but with the Super Vol nature of this tariff trade war and the dramatic market moves, we are going to do another short video. We tried our best to avoid “hot takes” and stick with how to think about what it means for the Energy sector over the long run—i.e., the “long takes.” For companies and investors that are not trying to day trade this crazy market, there are some fundamental questions about how to think about the macro, CAPEX, M&A, and what to do with so much uncertainty. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We had intended to publish a written note this week that we thought had some interesting analysis on energy sub-sector profitability over what we consider to be the 2021-2024 mini-cycle. But President Trump's April 2 “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event squashed those publication plans. OPEC decided to add to the noise with its own surprise announcement that it would add additional volumes. As of the April 3 close, energy equities, oil commodities, and the broader stock market have been hit hard and we have pivoted this week to producing a short video podcast to share our thoughts. With the major caveat that we are one day into whatever this potential new paradigm is—and given our aversion to providing “hot takes” on the news of the day—we wanted to offer some initial long-term perspectives on macro developments, i.e., “long takes” so to speak.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's video is a follow up to last week's written post titled "What Does Energy Pragmatism Mean for Climate & Sustainability" (here). We wanted to expand on some of the points in our own voice and also address various questions and pushback we have received.Our key messages this week: (1) Energy pragmatism means a return to energy's natural hierarchy of needs, rather than the inverted version that pretended anyone anywhere prioritizes carbon emission reductions over energy availability and reliability; (2) investment flows into non-fossil fuel energy sources are not impacted by western world virtue signaling, as the climate bubble actually peaked way back in 2021; (3) the other 7 billion people in developing markets hold the key to how energy markets will evolve in coming decades, not us Lucky 1 Billioners.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This past week we attended CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Pragmatism, balance, and realism have been the themes uttered by just about every single speaker. Some have long been in this camp. Others are new. All are welcomed. We are still embracing inclusivity at Super-Spiked. Some will say we shouldn't be so forgiving to those people that 5 minutes ago were calling for an end to fossil fuel investment and are now suddenly seeing the light in regards to reliability, geopolitical security, and affordability. You, our loyal subscribers, know where we have been standing all along. It is our mission that the dialogue, understanding, and macro energy policies recognize energy's natural hierarchy of needs, where all anyone anywhere at all times cares about is can I use energy right now. Without energy access there is nothing. So in that spirit, we welcome everyone to the world of pragmatism.Before we get into our Top 10 takeaways from CERAWeek 2025, we would like to offer our congratulations to Dan Yergin, Atul Arya, and everyone at S&P Global for putting on a world class show. We learned a ton and caught up with many friends and colleagues from around the world. There is no conference like CERAWeek that brings together all of the global energy industry in one place.

Greetings, and welcome back to the podcast.This episode we are joined by Mr. Arjun Murti - Partner at Veriten LLC and a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. Mr. Murti has spent over 30 years on Wall Street as a sell-side equity research analyst, buy-side investor, advisor and board member covering the global energy sector. Mr. Murti previously served as a Partner at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2014. Prior to becoming Partner, he served as Managing Director from 2003 to 2006 and as Vice President from 1999 to 2003. During his time at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti worked as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the energy sector. He was co-director of equity research for the Americas from 2011 to 2014. Previously, Mr. Murti held equity analyst positions at JP Morgan Investment Management from 1995 to 1999 and at Petrie Parkman from 1992 to 1995. Mr. Murti serves on the board of directors of ConocoPhillips & Liberty Energy Inc. He also serves on the advisory boards of ClearPath and Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and as a board observer to Welligence Energy Analytics. Mr. Murti graduated with a business degree specializing in finance from the University of Denver,Since November 2021, Mr. Murti has published Super-Spiked, a Substack newsletter and podcast about the energy transition.Among other things, we discussed The End of the Energy Transition Era & What it Means for Investors.Enjoy.Thank you to our sponsors.Without their support this episode would not be possible:Connate Water SolutionsATB Capital MarketsEnergy United 360 Engineering & Environmental ConsultingEVA SoftwareBroadbill EnergySupport the show

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow up on last week's post that heralded The Rise of the Energy Pragmatism Era (here). No more inverting the hierarchy of needs with non-sensical net-zero-is-all-that-matters energy outlooks that would subjugate vast swaths of humanity to ongoing poverty. We have moved into an exciting and even fun new period for all things energy—new, old and everything in between. Oil & gas is converging with power. Technology and energy are converging in the sense that you can't have the former without the latter. Billion-person scale economies in the developing world are doing whatever it takes to bring wealth to their citizens—all of which is synonymous with energy growth. And for those regions it will be a focus on reliability, affordability, and geopolitics that will motivate an increasingly diverse mix of energy sources and technology. This is not about looking backwards...it's about the path forward.This week's video will start our discussion on new opportunities that could arise as energy pragmatism spreads, in particular to regions that had been most in “climate only” mode. What regions have been left behind that deserve a fresh look? How can we best meet the substantial energy needs of ALL 8 billion people on Earth? Real economics are returning, not unsustainable rich-country government handouts to the wealthiest amongst us. Welcome to The Energy Pragmatism Era!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.The firehose of news flow out of the new Trump administration since, and frankly preceding, his inauguration has not stopped. While US presidents throughout history seem to elicit strong reactions, President Trump inspires a degree of hysteria from those that oppose him and a do-no-wrong deference from his supporters. What we find is that whatever the issue is—it could be domestic spending, sanctions, or tariffs—when someone has an obviously dripping disdain for Trump, it weakens the efficacy of their argument, even if partly accurate. The opposite is also true. We find both extremes to be pretty unhelpful in sorting through what matters. By the time this video podcast is published, President Trump will have only been in office for 4 weeks: there are still 3 years and 48 weeks to go—permanent freak out mode is not sustainable or healthy! In this week's video, which we recorded a little earlier than usual due to some travel this past week, we address a number of questions that have arisen. We are going to do our best to use our equity research analyst's mindset to assess policy actions taken or proposed. This means our only goal is to make the right call and provide the best insight we can for the companies we advise. We will keep our answers focused on how it all might impact the long-term energy macro and corporate strategy.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.As long-time Super-Spiked subscribers know, we are not about “hot takes” on the issue of the day. With that said, it's been an incredible first week and a half since the US inaugurated its 47th president. A fire hose of Trump-driven news has instantly recast global narratives around energy and geopolitics as well as as a host of other topics we don't normally cover in Super-Spiked. The World Economic Forum's Davos gathering happened last week. And DeepSeek, a Chinese AI program in the spirt of ChatGPT and related programs, burst onto the scene after its US iPhone app went viral last weekend, upending stock markets and in particular anything and everything related to the A.I. trade. We are going to try our best to put this torrent of news flow in the context of what it might mean for the longer-term trends and outlook for the energy that is our bread and butter.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.It's been a great start to the year for the traditional energy and power sectors broadly speaking. This video will publish just two days before we have a new administration here in the U.S. And as we highlighted in our last few Super-Spiked's from December as well as the “Big Themes for 2025” outlook post from last week (here), we feel considerable optimism that the narratives and perspectives about energy are becoming more pragmatic and sensible after a pretty rough stretch over 2021-2024 where a very narrow definition of “The Energy Transition” unfortunately dominated energy mindspace. Our confidence that that era decisively came to a close in 2024was on a full display in what was a remarkably civil and mostly thoughtful confirmation hearing for Chris Wright, president-elect Trump's nominee to be energy secretary, conducted by the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In this video we hope to further expand on our key themes for 2025 through the lens of some of the pushbacks or key questions we have been fielding.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow up on our written post from last week, Reflections On The End of The Energy Transition Era (here), to talk about important lessons learned from what was an insane period of time. This week will dive into the importance of governance, an area that frankly is often a bit of a black box for investors and those not involved in board-level discussions. We'll include a disclaimer upfront. The comments this week are generic to our 32-year career as an equity research analyst studying and engaging with the energy sector. We are not referring to any specific companies that we are personally involved with or via our role at Veriten.

This holiday weekend on our Inside the Coffeehouse series, we welcome Arjun Murti and Jeff Currie back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio.   Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack. Jeff Currie is Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle.   David Greely sits down with Jeff and Arjun, reuniting these two former Goldman partners and colleagues to share their perspectives on the market, economic, and political forces shaping the future of our energy markets.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope all of you that tune in or read Super-Spiked know that we try our hardest to be non-partisan and present views from what we refer to as an equity analyst's mindset, which means it does not matter what we personally think about an issue, we are just trying to make the right call. But this week we will confess that we are excited about the new energy team that has been proposed by president-elect former president Donald Trump with North Dakota governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of Interior and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright for Secretary of Energy. President Trump has also proposed creating a new National Energy Council that will be headed by Governor Burgum that will look to co-ordinate a whole-of-government approach to energy policies.We will apologize in advance that we are likely to sound far more partisan than we prefer. For those of you listening that either serve or have served in Democrat administrations—or that simply were not happy with how the recent election turned out—please know that we highly value you as a subscriber and we appreciate our ongoing engagement with those of you in that camp that we regularly dialogue with.The appointments of Governor Burgum and Mr. Wright signify a return to an approach to energy that puts abundance, reliability, security, and affordability at its core and an “all of the above” approach to harnessing American energy resources and technology. We would contrast this with the prior administration's emphasis on addressing climate change, which we see as a subsidiary issue within energy and should not be the centering policy point that comes with a climate activist agenda. The “climate only” focus of recent years that took hold in the aftermath of COVID was a motivating factor for the creation of Super-Spiked and our eventual un-retirement and joining Veriten. Chris Wright in particular has been outspoken via his Bettering Human Lives report (here). The report beautifully articulates why we use energy in the first place: to better human lives. Super-Spiked and Bettering Human Lives share a common worldview and motivating spirit. In this week's video podcast we will discuss how re-prioritizing energy abundance, reliability, security, and affordability differs from the “climate only” agenda of the past several years from the perspective of energy equities. Our written post from last week, which we would encourage you to read, addressed various macro and policy issues around energy scenario analysis, power, new energies, and oil markets (here).

This week we provide some initial thoughts on the U.S. election, the bulk of which was decisively declared on election night itself. We regularly emphasize that we aim to bring an equity research analyst's mindset to evaluating the energy sector. That means we are simply trying to make the correct call on what we think will happen—not what we personally wish would happen or hope will happen. And we will do our best to stick with that in this video podcast, though when it comes to emotionally charged topics like elections, we'd have to admit that some amount of wish casting and personal opinion will creep in.In terms of Super-Spiked subscribers, we are going to guess that many of you, perhaps even a majority, will be pretty excited about the election results. But we also take a lot pride in the fact that we have a substantial contingent of subscribers that were hoping for a different outcome. The world is a better place for all of those viewpoints. And we thank all of you, those that agree with us and those that disagree, for your ongoing constructive engagement. As we repeatedly say, we are looking for the pushback to our views. It makes us better analysts.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We recorded this video podcast with a little less than a week to go before the November 5 US elections. We are seeing a lot of punditry commentary about what choosing one side or the other would mean for this policy or that sector and who will be the winners and losers depending on the outcome. We get it. There are differences between the parties, their areas of emphasis, and their rhetoric. But when it comes to the big picture outlook for the energy sector, we want to remind everyone that the structural macro trends unquestionably transcend micro politics. This is something we wrote about in our July 27, 2024 Super-Spiked, Does the US president's party impact the energy macro results? (here). At a high level, the answer is a firm “no.”Clearly individual companies and specific projects can be impacted as we have seen via the lack of approval for various pipeline projects or the LNG permit pause or the granting of tax credits to various new technologies. So yes, a specific company can be impacted by who wins. But at the big picture level, we believe the mega trends triumph over micro politics. Moreover, as we will show with the last 2 elections, various sectors did not perform as conventional wisdom expected.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Amidst the geopolitical and macro turmoil, we take a step back this week to turn back to how companies can think about outperformance through all the volatility. One can't be frozen and simply wait for a calmer or better time to materialize. No one should be sitting around waiting for an easy bull market to emerge. Long-time Super-Spiked subscribers will know that we are long-running advocates for companies focusing on profitability and a fortress balance sheet. This week we will start the process of spending some time on the "G" word: growth. Growth became a 4-letter word for investors after the surge in CAPEX during the Super-Spike era and subsequent US shale boom led to profitless growth--something we have spent a lot of time discussing in prior posts.And let us be clear, profits and balance sheet health remain the priority. That said, there is no doubt investors will always side with companies that can grow versus those that cannot grow at a given level of profitability and balance sheet strength. The trick is to hit the trifecta: growth, returns, and balance sheet strength. Moreover, for especially the upstream portion of the industry where asset life is finite--oil and gas fields naturally deplete--it is critical to adequately reinvest back in the business if a company is to persist as a going concern.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue the theme of normalization. The 2020-2023 period of “urgent energy transition,” “peak oil and gas demand,” and ESG hysteria we think is fading. It is being replaced with what we would call “normal” supply/demand/price volatility concerns. The biggest issue right now facing oil markets has been uncertainty on the outlook for China in particular. Going back to the super-cycle days of 20 years ago, we have long looked at copper markets to provide insights into China, given China is over 50% of copper demand. A noticeable gap has opened between weak crude oil prices and more resilient copper. Historically, the gap has closed with crude following the direction of copper. We shall see if history repeats.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.We are using the occasion of our 50th Super-Spiked video podcast to provide thoughts, lessons learned, and new perspectives gained from the first 49 videopods, 90 written posts, and what is now nearly 3 years of publishing Super-Spiked content. As always, we are especially appreciative of both the positive and constructive feedback from all subscribers; we really do love hearing from you. Our glass half-full world view sees energy narratives and conversations slowly but surely becoming more reasonable and less focused on extremist singular goals. There is a growing recognition that until you solve for how everyone on Earth will some day become energy rich, you will never solve sub-goals in areas like the environment or climate. We continue to believe geopolitical imperatives will be the driver of new energy technologies and sources for large population centers that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide the third installment of our August series on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” with a look at a number of noteworthy geopolitical and policy developments that have occurred. A key conclusion is that some events that were expected to be impactful were not, while others that had less fanfare did have a bigger impact. Some countries had grand openings that resulted in dramatically higher oil or gas supply. Others, not so much. Two weeks ago we discussed some of the different macro drivers that have changed over the course of our career (here). Last week we focused on sectors, business models, and strategy shifts (here). All of it is to point out that energy markets are forever changing. Energy transition has become an unfortunate and loaded term that most people would define as meaning a transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables over an arbitrarily short time frame like 2050. We do not agree that definition of energy transition is happening or would be desirable from the perspective of human prosperity. But there is a need for industry executives, investors, and policy makers to recognize that energy is in perpetual transition and that one needs to always be looking forward with a focus on the important drivers of change and to not let mis-guided and ill-informed rhetoric cloud judgements.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue our series of "30 Years of Perpetual Transition" with a focus on how various energy sectors and business models have evolved. As a reminder, we recognize the term "energy transition" has become a loaded term, which most people now take to mean the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or that it would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. Last week we focused on the energy macro with a closer look on big changes to the relative importance of various regions to oil demand (here). This week we will take a look at the major energy sub-sectors and give examples of how business models and risk taking have evolved.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. For the last month of summer, we are aiming to produce a series of hopefully short videos that highlight key lessons from the last 30 years of what we are calling perpetual transition in the energy space with an aim to offer insights on the go forward view. Energy transition itself has become a loaded term of late, typically referring to the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. And we have little doubt that the next 30 years will NOT look like the last 30 years. The macro has changed, sectors and company strategy have changed, business models evolve, new technologies and sources or location of energy supply emerge, demand changes, which stocks and sectors perform best changes. Everything is constantly transitioning. So to reiterate, we do not subscribe to what most people today mean by “energy transition,” as we expect all forms of energy to grow in coming decades. But under the hood, energy markets are constantly transitioning, and we do wish to better understand the direction the world is headed.Today's video is the first of our new series and will focus on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” in the energy macro. Next week we plan to turn to the various energy sectors and company strategy. In other videos, we will look at geopolitics, policy, and the environment.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our Super-Spiked post last week (here) asked the question of “Does the US President's party matter to energy macro results?” Our over-arching conclusion is that the bark of presidential or party rhetoric is far worse than the bite. Energy is by nature a long-term business and mega trends around sources of supply, global economic growth, geopolitics, and capital spending cycles drive share price performance, crude oil and natural gas production, as well as CO2 emissions trends than does whichever party happens to be in power for a particular 4- or even 8-year period. The fact that these long-term trends dominate over-arching results—and we observed that there is a notable exception for particular projects that might impact specific companies, something like an approved or rejected oil or gas pipeline or perhaps a new energies subsidy—the long-term trends mean there is likely far more common ground among the major parties than there is disagreement. Yet all we hear about are the extremist edges of the debate. So in the spirt of peace, love, and unity, this week's video will focus on where there is or should be common ground among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents here in the United States.

We continue our Summer Playlist 2024 this week with Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten and Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss America's energy independence – and what it will take to maintain America's energy exceptionalism to help meet rising global demand into a future of lower carbon and more sustainable energy.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we focus on the question “Can you trust the United Nations on energy and climate?” The question is sparked by a “climate change” warning label that YouTube placed on Super-Spiked Episode 37 “Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World” (here) that discussed an updated climate change statement from Barclays, German de-industrialization, and our thoughts on the role of US and Canadian traditional energy. The warning label linked to a United Nations website that highlighted what it described as “Facts” and “Myth Busters” on climate energy (here). In reviewing the 16 “facts,” we find that 2 we would agree are definitively facts, another 2-3 are factually true but start the U.N. down the road of advocacy and weaponizing the topic of climate, and the other 10-11 are a mix of opinion, advocacy, and in some cases outright falsehoods. Our concern with what the U.N. presents as “facts” is that it is the organization that oversees the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is widely (universally?) considered the authority on so-called climate science.We have spent considerable time in prior posts and videos discussing our concerns with institutional advocacy under the pretense of sober analysis from groups like the International Energy Agency (IEA), Glasgow Financial Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ), and within bank and asset manager ESG/Sustainability groups. Frankly, we have been late to taking a closer look at the U.N. itself, most likely because we have not relied on its data directly and it has otherwise not been within the purview of our “Wall Street” approach to discussing energy and climate. The U.N. and IPCC clearly deserve greater scrutiny given their massive influence on how the world understands climate.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we honor America's upcoming 248th birthday on July 4th, when it declared independence from the King of England, and take a moment to celebrate the country's incredible achievements in the energy sector. As my friend and colleauge Paul Dabbar eloquently wrote in a terrific Hoover Institute piece that we would encourage all Super-Spiked subscribers to read (here), America is an energy superpower, a position we should lean into in coming years. Energy supply makes us as Americans and the Rest of the World richer. It betters human lives, to quote another friend Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. We have called this video American Energy Exceptionalism and it is a celebration of how fortunate we are with our endowment of substantial oil and natural gas resources, our world leading technology sector and culture of innovation and risk taking, and our leading capital markets and system of capitalism that underpins our national economic wealth.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We turn back to our favorite topic and that is profitability and the goal of generating superior long-term share price performance. We spend a lot of time discussing ROCE, CROCI, and free cash flow. This week we wanted to talk about long-term stock buyback as one way to add per share growth to the equation and to highlight how buybacks plus M&A have contributed to significant outperformance from Murphy USA, the 2013 retail spin off from E&P parent Murphy Oil, which is in the very mature business of gas station and convenience store retailing. We also note the outperformance by the Big-3 US downstream companies versus the Majors, E&Ps, and the S&P 500.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We are just back from 8 straight days on the road, so this is going to be a short video podcast that touches upon three themes: (1) pushback on our view that the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is at least double current demand; (2) perspectives on the NVIDIA-like move in merchant power generator equities; and (3) a preview of what's next for the now controversial term "energy transition"? Next weekend we will be enjoying the long Memorial Day holiday, with Super-Spiked returning the first Saturday in June. Enjoy!

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow-up to last week's post Obliterating Peak Oil Demand: A Progress Update (here). Our main issue with the peak oil demand narrative is that it it doesn't solve for how everyone on Earth will someday enjoy the lifestyles The Lucky 1 Billion of Us take for granted. We believe the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is 250 million b/d, well above current levels of around 103 million b/d. The analytical mistake we think many are making is deducting future electric vehicle (EV) growth from something near current oil demand as opposed to from oil's TAM when everyone on Earth ultimately lives within fully developed economies. Furthermore, EVs only address about 25% of the oil demand barrel and are unlikely to be viable solution for the entirety of even that sliver of demand.At its core, our long-term outlook for oil demand looks at the relationship between global GDP growth and the quantity of oil demand needed to generate a dollar of GDP. We observe the long-term trend that every year the world generally requires slightly less oil to generate a dollar of GDP, a concept we refer to as “efficiency gains.” In this case, efficiency gains includes both fuel economy (improving miles per gallon) and product substitution (e.g., EVs, SAF, RD). Based on our analysis of “efficiency gains”, there is essentially no evidence oil demand is on-track to plateau let alone decline in coming years. We believe there is not a decade let alone year when anyone today can definitively declare oil demand will peak. We show two country examples—China and India—which collectively have growth potential of 40-60 million b/d in order to reach a TAM that reflects a 10 barrels of oil demand per capita, consistent with “everyone being rich.” China and India are also examples of what we believe will be the main driver of limiting the TAM of oil markets to something well below 250 million b/d, which is geopolitical security. For countries that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources, especially sizable ones like China and India, we see a strong motivation to limit growth in oil imports—the ultimate TAM limiter for oil markets.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow up on last week's deep post (here) on cash return on gross capital invested (CROCI), which we view as a complementary profitability metric to return on capital employed (ROCE). The videopod starts with the reasons to introduce a second, primary metric due to some of the issues with ROCE around write-offs and the inherent incentive to under-invest given the nature of the ROCE calculation. We discuss how CROCI offers different insights at the sub-sector level. Finally, we provide hypothetical examples based on actual company data for two companies that took large write-offs that boosted ROCE in subsequent years; one company continued to lag on CROCI while the other showed fundamental improvement. It is this kind of divergence that we find interesting, especially when ROCE is rendered less meaningful due to recent large impairment charges. As always, we welcome feedback, pushback, and discussion on this (and all!) topics we discuss.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We spent this past week in Houston attending CERAWeek 2024. It was another great event; thank you and congratulations to everyone at S&P Global for hosting and putting on a great show!Coming out of last year's event, our key theme was “The Energy Transition Needs To Transition” away from an obsessive focus on only counting carbon to one that centered itself around meeting the massive unmet energy needs of everyone on Earth with affordable, reliable, and geopolitically secure energy, which in turn would better enable environmental objectives to be met. A year later, we see “green shoots” that a healthier energy evolution era is emerging and that “The New Energy Transition Narratives” we discuss in this week's videopod are increasingly aligned with our framing.Energy demand is increasing nearly everywhere with all energy sources and a host of both traditional and new technologies. The developing world appears to be gaining confidence to go its own way, with diminishing western world influence. And the new trend of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven power demand growth is waking the US up to the needs for an “all of the above” energy approach if we are to have reliable and growing power generation. See our post from last week, “Will AI Be Our Salvation To A Healthier Energy Evolution?” (here).We see the potential for new business models, collaborations, and partnerships across energy value chains and between energy suppliers and users (Tech and Industrial sectors in particular) to be a likely future trend. It is about as interesting and dynamic of a period in the energy sector as we can remember over our 32-year career. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We focus on some of the big macro themes that have emerged from earnings season across the broader stock market, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) adoption S-curves, artificial intelligence (AI), ongoing US energy sector M&A, and the role of Canadian energy companies looking forward. Trends with both EVs and AI add to our confidence that demand for all sources of energy, including oil and natural gas, will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. We do not believe anyone can know today which decade let alone year that oil or natural gas will definitively peak. We would encourage readers to review Ford CEO Jim Farley's introductory remarks on Ford's 4Q2023 earnings call. Mr. Farley recognized the challenges Ford is facing in ramping EV sales; and while the company remains committed to longer-term EV growth, it is clearly going to be at a slower pace than what was envisioned even one year ago. At the same time, Mr. Farley noted an uptick in hybrid vehicle sales, which, ironically, may be the technology most appropriate for US consumers and could eventually, and finally, lead to marked improvements in fuel economy. It has long been our view that it is inappropriate to use a uniform rapid EV adoption “s-curve” in all regions; we do not believe the examples of Norway (driven by climate policy) or China (driven by geopolitical security) will be representative of the United States, India, or many other developing countries. As it relates to traditional energy, we believe the belief that rapid global EV adoption will lead to oil demand rolling over within the next 5-10 years is not anywhere near on track to occur, especially when one considers the massive untapped energy demand of the other 7 billion on Earth that are not amongst The Lucky 1 Billion of us. We recognize that “AI” has become a major buzzword, and with that likely comes some hype and over-enthusiasm about the subject. That said, we are believers that the next major technology revolution is here. The relevance to energy is that implied power demand from AI technology use, datacenters, and related infrastructure will be massive. After about 20 years of broadly flat US power demand, low-to-mid-single digit load growth appears to have returned (even higher in some regions). Load growth and growing penetration of intermittent resources like solar and wind are an unhealthy mix—a point that does not appear to be lost on the giant technology companies. In our view, it may well be AI that proves to be our salvation when it comes to what we have called “a messy energy transition era.” The general freak-out by many Big Tech firms over how to source power while also meeting sustainability goals, we believe could lead to a healthier narrative around energy overall. Big Tech is going to need “all of the above” energy solutions that can meet growing power demand. Near-zero methane natural gas along with nuclear are going to be important components of our power generation mix along with rising renewables output.

Note: this is republication in order to upload the audio to Apple Podcasts and Spotify.WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We return to our sub-theme of "Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World" sparked by Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement (here and here), evidence of structural de-industrialization in Germany, and our recent analysis on Norway's resilient overall oil demand despite gasoline erosion due to its electric vehicle (EV) ramp.With Europe fading as a core driver of global GDP growth, our macro focus is on how key population centers in Asia, in particular China (1.4 billion people), India (1.4 billion people), and the rest of southeast Asia (1.3 billion people) will meet their massive unmet energy needs. Climate policies being pursued in Western Europe, the United States, and Canada that disproportionately and perplexingly negatively impact traditional energy companies in their home regions is one of the key contributing factors to the messy energy transition era. For developing Asia, it remains an open question as to whether American and Canadian oil and natural gas (via LNG) will be part of the solution or will they instead need to rely on the Middle East and Russia.Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement that promises to stop financing new oil and gas fields and infrastructure expansion is the latest example of a western-world financial institution succumbing to pressure from "climate only" ideologues. It is deeply unfortunate. Germany's ill-advised energy and climate policies are undoubtedly a major contributor to its relatively high power prices and undeniable signs of structural de-industrialization. Norway's rapid EV ramp shows how hard it is to kill overall oil demand—a fact "net zero by 2050" scenarios bizarrely ignore. Ill-advised energy and climate policies from European governments and, increasingly, financial institutions like Munich Re and Barclays (among many others) is contributing heavily to what we call a messy energy transition era—our motivation for creating Super-Spiked.

Tisha Schuller welcomes Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and author of the “Super Spiked” newsletter, to the Energy Thinks podcast.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We had intended to follow-up last weeks' ROCE Deep Dive post (here) with examples of how to apply it to macro forecasting as well as sub-sector and company analysis. However, a surprise LNG permit “pause” from the Biden Administration followed a few days later by Saudi's announcement it would “pause” its planned oil capacity expansion has led to a change in publishing plans!We wrote a seven-part tweet/post on Twitter-X over the weekend (here) that has now garnered a mind-boggling 120,000 views, well above our typical 1,000-4,000 views per tweet/post. Key points: (1) there is no such thing as an “Industry” view on the “pause,” it essentially depends on whether a company, industry, or country is long or short natural gas; (2) the potential impact on Europe has been both over-analyzed and overstated; (3) the implications for developing Asia have been under-appreciated; (4) competitor countries are undoubtedly rejoicing over the news; (5) big versus small government is a basic viewpoint difference in how to address energy & environmental policy; (6) climate implications are more complex than the simple debate of LNG is higher-carbon than renewables versus lower carbon than coal. We address the Saudi capacity expansion pause from the perspective of the recent Saudi oil policy that has focused primarily on the front-end of the curve. Is this a shift to focusing on long-dated oil? As a reminder, both the Biden LNG permit and Saudi capacity expansion pauses are consistent with our “Super Vol” rather than “super-cycle” commodity macro framework. Policy rhetoric and actions, frankly, can be as meaningful as underlying supply/demand, especially over the near-to-medium term.Finally, we observe signs that we are past “peak Tesla,” especially when considered alongside clear evidence of electric vehicle (EV)-or-bust fatigue among car buyers and many traditional auto manufactures. China's EV ramp continues, more or less unabated, and we believe is highly motivated by a desire to limit growth in oil imports. We do not believe there is a singular EV adoption “S-curve” for all regions. China will be different than the USA, which will be different than India, the rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. We continue to believe there is not a decade, let alone year, when we KNOW oil demand will peak, even as we expect continued growth in many new energy technologies including EVs.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our first two written posts of 2024 focused on the Big Themes and Tactical Questions we see for the traditional energy sector. In this video we bring those together with an expanded discussion on a number of sub-sectors including the international oil companies (IOCs) & Canadian “Big-4” oils, US “Big-3” downstream, US/Canada midstream (includes pipelines and MLPs), and gassy E&Ps. Traditional energy exhibits a massive and diverse set of opportunities and one of our 2024 aims is to provide our perspectives on where differentiated opportunities exist. The world has now recovered from the deep COVID trough. The recovery trade in traditional energy ended in 2022. Balance sheets are fixed and profitability structurally improved (versus last decade). The challenge now for individual companies across the various sub-sectors is to articulate and demonstrate a differentiated approach to meeting the world's massive unmet energy needs through a strategy that is both profitable and durable, or, recognizes a lack of durability by liquidating, selling, or otherwise distributing essentially all cash back to investors. If this week's video is not enough for you, Arjun also appeared on Lykeion's (Geopolitics of Commodities) podcast hosted by Scott Smitson. The 55-minute discussion (link) covered global energy, Europe's energy polices, under appreciated aspects of the energy transition, the role of government in energy policy, near-term geopolitical risk and spare capacity, and more.Arjun also joined Tom Loughery and Reed Barrett of FLOW on a 54-minute webinar ( link, password S4Pz0+4v). Key topic items included our SuperVol framework, Tom's view on the “second-half” of shale, the role of early versus late stage private equity, exploration, Super Major/large-cap E&P vs SMID-cap E&P strategies, and what our “phasing-in profitable growth” theme really means. As always, we appreciate and look forward to your comments, critiques, and, if you wish, praise.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. In what is likely to be our final Super-Spiked for 2023, we provide a 2024 preview with the theme of “phasing-in profitable growth.” In the prior two Super-Spiked posts, we have discussed key takeaways from 2023, including ROCE resilience for traditional energy, the significant pressure facing many new energies business models, the massive total addressable market (TAM) for global energy demand, especially given the significant unmet energy needs of the other 7 (soon to be 9) billion people on Earth, and the ongoing “Super Vol” macro backdrop. For traditional energy in 2024, we believe leading companies will be able to articulate and demonstrate what their unique value proposition is. ROCE improvement in and of itself is not enough; there is a need to demonstrate long-term profitability resilience and articulate a positive equity story. For new energies, the questions are more around figuring out which new businesses will scale excluding subsidies. When we look at the massive energy TAM and take into account the desire among developing countries to have geopolitically secure energy sources, there is a major role for new energies to play, even before also taking into account environmental objectives. Sorting through the rubble of this year's sell-off, or considering new opportunities, will be the focus.As 2023 winds down, we would like to wish all Super-Spiked subscribers a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy New Year, and Happy Holiday Season! We will see you early in 2024.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's video is a follow up to last week's “Reframing the growth versus returns trade-off debate” post (here). We provide additional perspectives on the opportunity for leading energy companies to narrow, if not close, the large valuation gap that we believe exists for companies capable of sustaining top quartile profitability. The ability to sustain profitability, somewhat paradoxically, requires risk taking via some mixture of M&A, exploration, global, new energies, or infrastructure investments. We also note that items like dividend/stock buyback policy and ESG & climate objectives are “table stakes” and not core investment drivers on their own.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow-up on last week's post (here) that dove into our takeaways from recent Super Major M&A activity. We look to address the issues of (1) what is the goal of recent M&A activity; (2) what consensus media or Street views do we disagree with on M&A; (3) whether bigger is better; and (4) what does this mean for SMID-cap traditional energy.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We focus on the long-term implications to the energy sector of the sharp rise in geopolitical turmoil, especially following the terrorist attack in Israel last weekend, coupled with continued stock market turmoil among past energy transition darlings like Orsted and Next Era Energy Partners among many others.We make the following observations:* The unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth is massive and points to significant long-term growth potential in all forms of energy, both new technologies and traditional sources like crude oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear.* Yet, almost no one is calling for oil and gas companies to grow CAPEX and the major decline in New Energies equities and rising cost of capital in that space points to slower New Energies CAPEX as well, at least versus prior forecasts.* Rising Middle East tensions and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine come at a time of generally low OPEC spare capacity, even after considering the recent supply cuts from Saudi Arabia.* The number of oil projects in particular being pursued continues to shrink and the cost curve is steepening. * While we continue to characterize the commodity macro as "Super Vol" rather than "super cycle" due to economic uncertainty in three of the largest energy consuming regions--China, Europe, and the USA--the addition of new geopolitical risks in the Middle East coupled with turmoil in the New Energies space suggest it is just a matter of time before we hit a major pinch point for energy commodity prices.* The traditional energy sector continues to be generally under-appreciated by most investors, policy makers, politicians, and academics. And we would at some point expect to find value among some New Energies equities whenever the dust settles, though that day may still be some ways into the future.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our video this week is titled Profits Over Preaching as we look to bring together a number of recent themes and address three interesting questions we have received while attending recent macro/industry events in Italy, Calgary, and New York. Q1: Will peak oil supply fears return? We admit to being surprised at this question being raised, but it's a good one. Over the past month-plus we have spent considerable time discussing our view that there is no peak to oil (or natural gas and perhaps not even coal) demand coming anytime soon. Trying to guess a future round-number date misses the fact that the total addressable market of future energy demand for the 7 (soon to be 9) billion people in the Rest of the World is massive; we will need all forms of energy to meet that eventual and inevitable demand. We have also noted the steepening oil cost curve (a sign of a shrinking number of low-cost oil projects) and the low levels of industry CAPEX as pointing to a future supply crunch. To be clear, we have never believed the world will be resource short anytime soon but it does require making an effort via CAPEX to grow supply. Right now, economic uncertainty in China, Europe, and the USA have allowed demand to be met by a variety of supply sources and we have stuck with a Super Vol rather than Super Cycle framing. It likely will take a firmer global economic footing to spark an oil super cycle. Q2: What does XLE outperformance vs ICLN say about opportunities in traditional versus new energies? We highlight ICLN underperformance looks similar to what Goldman Sachs portfolio strategists have observed with unprofitable versus profitable tech. The market is clearly demanding evidence that business models are on-track to profitably scale and punishing those where there have been disappointments. While there is a role for government to play in establishing incentives, rules, and regulations, we believe caution is warranted for businesses where government is picking technology winners and fully subsidizing business models. Q3: Are we therefore just being polite when we say new energies have a future? No, we are not simply trying to be polite! One should be careful not to assume struggles in one area (e.g., offshore wind) indicate it is all doomed; it isn't. In fact, new energy opportunities have a wide swath of business models, exposures, capital intensity, geographies, subsidy needs, and ownership structures. Tesla has shown $ trillion dreams can be realized. But even on a much smaller scale, there are many interesting opportunities to consider. No one should confuse our pragmatism with pessimism about new energies. We will need it all, both new and old, if the world is to meet its long-term energy needs.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we stick with the video format to provide an update on “where are we in the cycle” for traditional energy. Key messages:(1) We are still early in a new structural bull phase for ROCE.* ROCE vs WTI is holding up well, despite sequentially lower oil prices* LTM ROCE remains at or above 20% for the fifth straight quarter* Net debt has ticked up off recent lows, but traditional energy balance sheets overall are much improved* CAPEX remains in check and well below danger zone levels.(2) We are early in the market moving past the idea that oil & gas is a sunset industry.* Traditional energy has now fully recovered lost ground at the start of COVID relative to the S&P 500, ICLN “Clean Energy” ETF, and forward oil prices.* Looking over longer time periods, traditional energy is still trailing other areas by large margins.* Most importantly, there remains a very wide gap between the sector's discounted S&P weighting (now about 4.5%) versus ROCE, a gap we expect to narrow via an eventual re-rating higher of traditional energy.* We continue to believe oil demand will grow, excluding recessions, for the foreseeable future; arguments calling for “peak oil demand” are in the process of being obliterated.(3) For the time being, we still prefer “super vol” over “super cycle” to describe the commodity macro backdrop.* In the near term, we are in an environment of rocky GDP in the three largest oil consuming areas—China, Europe, and the United States.* We are not yet in a period where oil prices can rally into strengthening GDP, as we saw in the 2002-2008 cycle. * The oil cost curve is narrowing and steepening , suggesting a supply crunch is coming. * But range bound long-dated oil (60 months forward) reinforces our “super vol” rather than “super cycle” perspectives. This will be our final Super-Spiked of Summer 2023; we will return the Saturday after Labor Day. We hope everyone enjoys the last days of summer!

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Gabe Collins, Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs, along with his colleague Steven Miles, Fellow in Global Natural Gas, with Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Gabe last joined us on COBT in May of 2022 (episode linked here) and has a fascinating background in the economics, policies, and geopolitics of Russia and China, as well as national security-related research and analysis. In addition to his position at the Baker Institute, Steven is a Senior Counsel at Baker Botts and previously was a twenty-year Partner with the firm, serving as the Energy Sector Chair focused on LNG, natural gas, electric power, and renewable energy industries. It was our pleasure to visit with Gabe and Steven for a global energy conversation focused on LNG and Europe. The focus was on one key question: “why isn't Europe locking in more long-term gas supply?”   The catalyst to our discussion stems from a report co-authored by Gabe and Steven that will be published in the near future. Titled “Eastern Promises or Energy Fantasies: Why Is Europe Not Replacing Russian Pipeline Gas With Long-Term LNG Contracts?”, the report leverages analysis from 600+ LNG contracts over 25 years leading up to the Ukraine invasion. In our discussion with Gabe and Steven, we cover key themes including the inspiration behind writing the paper, the potential role and intentions of China, Europe's response to its gas shortage and its reliance on spot LNG, potential geopolitical risks, and the potential explanations for Europe's reluctance to sign long-term gas contracts. We also discuss the concept of funding post-war Ukraine through gas surcharges, Mexico's growing LNG capacity, how Europe's decision not to contract LNG longer-term could be hurting the developing world and the climate, and the discrepancy between European policymakers' optimistic view of hydrogen and renewable energy with the unease among industrial players who see the ongoing demand for gas and the challenges in transitioning away from it. Gabe and Steven also recently wrote an article in Foreign Policy that touches on many of these aspects, linked here.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting upcoming events and topics of interest. Economically, all attention is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech this Friday for color/clarity on how much higher/how much longer interest rates could stay elevated. In commodities, crude oil remains steady around $80/bbl., with traders seemingly divided on which dynamic will win this year, that being supply (OPEC cuts) or demand (China weakness). He also noted that LNG markets will be closely following this week's current Australian LNG labor negotiations to handicap the potential for an LNG strike in the coming weeks, which could impact up to 10% of global LNG. From a broader equity market standpoint, equity traders will be intensely focused on NVIDIAs earnings and rounded out the conversation by flagging recent midstream deals with one of the key themes being “controlling the molecules” from wellhead to end user/markets. He also highlighted a Permian E&P merger this week between two mid-cap E&Ps, which is leading investors to contemplate whether an acceleration of public-to-public deals could be forthcoming, and whether they'll be done at premiums. Arjun Murti highlighted the spillover effects of how policies from the EU will have ramifications for the rest of the world, comparing key themes from Gabe and Steven's report to recent Super-Spiked themes. Todd Scruggs chimed in to share LNG trends including the short-term extremely tight supply-demand balance in Europe and longer-term potential for the US to become

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. This week's video continues our now month-long series of analyzing the significant long-term growth potential we see for crude oil, which is in sharp contrast to consensus fears that "peak oil demand" is imminent (i.e., within the next 5 years). Frankly, the numbers in the developing world are overwhelming in terms of overall energy needs. We will need all forms of energy, both traditional sources, and, hopefully, new technologies as well. To apply some numbers to the issue, the lucky one billion of us that live in the USA, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, or New Zealand used 41 million b/d of crude oil in 2022, or about 13 barrels per person per year. In contrast, the other 7 billion people in the Rest of the World used 59 mn b/d, or just 3 barrels per person per year. Even as attempts are made to reduce rich-country oil demand, the upside potential in the developing world we believe is magnitudes greater. We point to an equivalent 10 barrel per person per year consumption level as what is possible for the developing world over the coming decades. We will need a whole bunch of new technologies to help meet the implied energy demand growth required for the Rest of the World to reach rich country standards of living without actually growing to 10 barrels of oil consumption per capita. But the idea that crude oil will not play a role and would globally decline is pure fantasy. Looking at the numbers, it's not a close call.In the video, we discuss the pushback we have received, which has been pretty underwhelming to be honest. As a reminder, we approach energy markets as analysts, not advocates for any particular fuel source. Our only ideology is that we are pro-capitalism, anti-socialism. It's not about liking or disliking our viewpoint. It is about what the numbers show. And the numbers are overwhelming in terms of continued crude oil demand growth for the foreseeable future.The end, for crude oil (and natural gas) is not near.

Our Summer Playlist rolls on this week with Arjun Murti. Arjun is the Former Head of Equity Research on the Energy Sector at Goldman Sachs, a Partner at Veriten, and the publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. SmarterMarkets™ host David Greely catches up with Arjun midway through the year to get his thoughts on where we are in the energy super vol cycle.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. This week's video is part 1 (of at least 2) that will address the question of “is oil a sunset industry?” The sunset industry narrative has been driven by concerns about (1) being at or near “peak oil demand” due to so-called “energy transition” and (2) the sector being doomed to structurally weak profitability with 2022 being treated as a one-off due to Russia-Ukraine.Our emphatic answer is “no, the oil industry is nowhere near being in its sunset phase.” Global oil demand is on-track to obliterate peak demand concerns fueled by the IEA's infamous “Net Zero by 2050” report. In contrast to that scenario which called for a 25% drop in oil demand by 2030 to 75 mn b/d versus a supposed 2019 peak of 100 mn b/d, oil demand is now on-track to rise to at least 105 mn b/d by 2028 per the IEA. As we look at the fact that the other 7 billion people on Earth are using just 3 barrels per person on average versus the 15-16 barrels per capita used by the lucky 1 billion of us that live in the United States, Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, we see significant scope for oil demand to rise well into the 2030s and possibly beyond. As is now a core theme of ours: the energy transition needs to transition to one that is centered around meeting the energy needs of the Rest of the World as its over-arching objective.In part 2, we plan to address our favorable view of oil industry profitability. While we have preferred the “Super Vol” language to describe the oil macro, we have used the super cycle language to describe our outlook for sector profitability. We are most encouraged by the fact that over the last four quarters as oil prices have corrected, profitability relative to the oil price has remained structurally better than what we saw last decade. We plan to follow up on our profitability outlook in part 2 of this series after 2Q2023 earnings later in August.

North America holds enough oil and gas reserves to provide cheap, clean, and reliable energy to the rest of the globe for many decades – so why isn't it? Energy analyst Arjun Murti breaks down the key factors at play: capital investors who are wary of uncertain regulatory environments, countries like China and India that won't give up on coal, and a little-known group called the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (which is actually implementing all the terrible ideas that groups like World Economic Forum only talk about). Arjun explains how America – through a new Marshall Plan of government and private sector initiatives – can overcome these roadblocks to become the leader in global energy. Arjun Murti has spent over 30 years as a global energy markets analyst with firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Read his Super-Spiked substack at https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ and follow him on Twitter at @ArjunNMurti

Arjun Murti has been tracking global energy markets for three decades, including a stint as co-director of Americas equity research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode, Murti, who writes the Super-Spiked column on Substack, talks about rising global energy demand, the reasons for declining investment in the oil sector, “peak China,” gasoline as an “absolute miracle,” the exploitation of Africa's mineral wealth, and why “oil demand will be the last thing to go away.” (Recorded July 3, 2023.)    

We are very pleased today to be sending you a special 4th of July COBT. For our Canadian friends, we hope you had a fantastic Canada Day this past Saturday. For all of you celebrating the 4th today, we hope the baseball, hot dogs and apple pie are all flowing! With some grilling of course!   For today's special show, we were delighted to host our dear friend Rob West. Rob is the fascinating Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. His background includes research at Redburn and Stanford C. Bernstein before he struck out on his own in 2019 to start Thunder Said. He has some of the most unique impressions, observations, and analysis on the changing energy world and we were delighted to have him. What we can also add is that we had the great honor of visiting with him live in Estonia on Sunday as part of the lead-in to today's discussion. Getting to know Rob has been and continues to be great fun.   Today's crew included Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti. With this being a critical half-year mark, Mike took some time in the lead-in to review market and energy sector statistics, changes in oil and natural gas rig counts, OPEC's plans for cuts in production, and the significant market cap of tech giants compared to energy. Arjun chimed in and told his family's remarkable story of coming to America and living the American dream. The story resonates as loud as ever on a day like today. Arjun also reminded us all of how "the energy transition needs to transition" to being one focused on the many billions of people outside of America, the US and Canada seeking the freedom and prosperity that comes from available reliable energy. Overall, Mike and Arjun really got us going as we turned to Rob.   The discussion with Rob today centered around a handful of key topics. First, his continued concern that we need to achieve energy surplus if we are ever going to achieve real decarbonization. His fear now, like ours, is that we are not only not heading towards energy surplus but we are instead headed for more energy shortages. Second, we discuss his latest thinking around AI and how it might be the answer to many of the world's supply chain and logistical and even technological problems. AI is clearly the new new thing and it was really fun kicking it around with Rob. As a third big topic, Rob has more than a few thoughts about his adopted country Estonia, including the latest from its neighbor Russia. He tells the gripping story of how the recent events with Wagner were perceived in Estonia, and reminds us all how Estonia resisted EU efforts to get the country to switch to Russian natural gas back in the day. As we wrapped up, and as part of our 4th of July and overall "freedom and independence" theme, we reference a paper Rob penned on how energy (oil) supply determined the fate of so much of World War Two (available here). On this day when we pause to say thank you for our freedom, reflecting on the role of energy in national security seemed super appropriate. Rob's article on the war and oil's role is fantastic.   As you might recall, Rob has joined us on COBT before. The first time on January 4, 2022 (episode linked here) and more recently on November 20, 2022 (episode linked here). We don't expect you to go back and listen/watch those, but some of you are becoming COBT history buffs so we at least want to give you that chance!   The first half of the year has been both eventful and stimulating. We count 32 COBT segments, 26 Super-Spiked pieces from Arjun, 8 Gener8 podcasts with Brett and Jeff, and 25 Market Wraps from Mike. Every week we feel like we get a little bit

This week's video brings together our last two written posts that questioned the market's obsession with OPEC noise and short-term inventory changes, especially when contemplating the potential for an oil super-cycle. We observe that inventory movements drive the front-end of the curve, but do not offer insight on the long-term cycle. It is the long-end of the forward that gives the signal as to whether we are in a trading market or a super cycle. So far, it is the former; hence our use of the "Super Vol" rather than "Super Cycle" phraseology.The key to a rise in long-dated prices would be a combination of US shale oil supply disappointments relative to rig count and signs that global GDP was accelerating and could maintain momentum with higher spot oil. The steepening and growing maturity of the non-OPEC supply curve, coupled with moderate global oil demand growth, suggests a pinch point will likely come, it just hasn't obviously arrived yet.The final area discussed is the impact of "Super Vol" vs "Super-Cycle" on sector profitability. Perhaps paradoxically, a volatile, "grind-it-out" macro backdrop may be more conducive to sustain advantaged ROCE than one where a super-cycle materializes. Avoiding the ROCE "quadrilateral of death" that we have previously discussed is a key objective for individual companies and the sector broadly.Finally, we'd like to highlight two appearances from this past week. I was on Andrew Stotz's "My Worst Investment Ever" podcast (here), where he discussed his regret of ignoring sector ROCE erosion during the second half of the Super-Spike era. He also joined Canadian portfolio manager Eric Nuttall on a Twitter Spaces (here) hosted by Twitter #EFT commodities super-star Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl). Key themes discussed included Super Vol vs Super-Cycle, the outlook for Canadian energy, sector profitability trends, and perspectives on energy transition.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Greetings & welcome back to the rose bros podcast.This episode we are joined by Mr. Arjun Murti - board member at ConocoPhillips,  Partner at Veriten LLC,  and a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. Mr. Murti previously served as a Partner at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2014. Prior to becoming Partner, he served as Managing Director from 2003 to 2006 and as Vice President from 1999 to 2003.During his time at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti worked as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the energy sector. He was co-director of equity research for the Americas from 2011 to 2014. Previously, Mr. Murti held equity analyst positions at JP Morgan Investment Management from 1995 to 1999 and at Petrie Parkman from 1992 to 1995. Mr. Murti serves on the advisory board of ClearPath, Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and as a trustee of Kent Place School.Mr. Murti also publishes “Super-Spiked” on Substack, a newsletter that takes aim at a messy energy transition era and the clash of energy commodity & equity markets with energy & climate policy, ESG initiatives, and geopolitics.Mr. Murti also holds B.S., B.A. – Finance from the University of Denver.Among other things, we sat down and discussed Lessons from 15 years at Goldman Sachs, top quartile returns & why there is opportunity in Canadian energy.Enjoy!This podcast episode is sponsored by Connate Water Solutions.Do you need cost effective water sourcing options to supply your next drilling or completions program?Connate Water Solutions is a specialized hydrogeology company focused on water well drilling, testing and water management services in Western Canada and Texas.Contact info@connatewater.com or www.connatewater.com for more details.This podcast is sponsored by Eco-Flex Recycled Rubber Solutions. Eco-Flex has been providing  the oil and gas industry with matting and safety walkways for 30 years, with mats that are a resilient, flexible, and an eco-friendly option for your toughest site conditions. With shock absorption, insulation, and easy maintenance, Eco-Flex mats are the perfect choice for any job. Checkout eco-flex.com for more details. This episode is brought to you by Canada Action - whose aim is to promote the science and positivity about Canadian oil and natural gas. The world absolutely needs more Canadian energy - join the conversation at canadaaction.ca or on social media.Support the show

BIO: Arjun Murti has over 30 years of experience as an equity research analyst, senior advisor, and board member, with global expertise covering traditional oil & gas and new energy technologies.STORY: Arjun made a call that oil prices would quintuple from $20 a barrel in the 90s to $105 in the 2000s and stay there for at least five years. The price averaged $100 a barrel from 2000 to 2014, entirely consistent with Arjun's call. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, the return on capital in the energy sector started falling. Arjun made excuses and continued to ride the wave all the way down.LEARNING: Let go of your ego and get out of the battle at some point. Frameworks need to grow, evolve and adjust to circumstances. Understand and inculcate reversion to the mean into your thinking. “At some point, you got to get out of your own ego and get out of the battle.”Arjun Murti Guest profileArjun Murti has over 30 years of experience as an equity research analyst, senior advisor, and board member, with global experience covering traditional oil & gas and new energy technologies.The bulk of his Wall Street career was at Goldman Sachs, where he retired as a partner in 2014. He recently “un-retired” to join Veriten, an energy research, strategy, and investing firm. Arjun publishes Super-Spiked, a Substack blog focused on the messy energy transition era.He is on the board of ConocoPhillips, a senior advisor at Warburg Pincus, and on the advisory boards for ClearPath and the Center on Global Energy Policy.Worst investment everAt the height of his career, Arjun made a call that oil was going to go from the $15 to $20 a barrel range it had been in from the mid-80s. He said the price would rise to between $50 to $105 in the 2000s and stay there for at least five years. And with that, the returns on capital and profitability in energy as a sector would do very well. Arjun called this the super spike.In 2002, the market started becoming bullish, and oil went from the 20-dollar range everyone thought the sector would be at forever to ultimately as high as $147 in 2008. The price averaged $100 a barrel from 2000 to 2014, entirely consistent with the high end of the range of Arjun's original call. He was pretty excited about the sector's profitability and experienced an ego boost after being proven right for five years.However, the returns on capital started rolling over, and Arjun made excuses for it. From 2006 to 2008, oil went from $65 to $100 a barrel, but returns on capital for the sector fell from 22% to 19%. 19% is still an excellent number, and that's the excuse Arjun used to continue riding the call. The sector then got interrupted by the great financial crisis of 2008, which Arjun never viewed as an energy event. The industry rebounded dramatically off those 2008 and 2009 lows, but the returns on capital had now fallen to 16%. Arjun kept making excuses as the returns continued to fall and never got off. Making excuses for his framework the entire way down became his worst investment mistake ever.Lessons learnedAt some point, you've to get let go of your ego and get out of the battle.Frameworks need to grow, evolve and adjust to circumstances.Andrew's takeawaysUnderstand and inculcate reversion to the mean into your thinking.Understand what the average is. Ride the wave but remember the...

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide a video update on our views of the appropriate role for oil & gas companies as it relates to so-called “energy transition.” The video is motivated by ongoing commentary, especially from the policy world, as to whether a meaningfully greater percentage of cash flows should be redirected to low-carbon opportunities and away from traditional oil & gas CAPEX or dividends/stock buybacks. This video harkens back to one of our first Super-Spiked posts titled Stop Trying to get Blockbuster Video—i.e., Big Oil—to accelerate energy transition (here).It remains our view that the single best thing an oil & gas company can do, in particular those based in the United States, Canada, or Europe, is to profitably produce as much oil and natural gas as they reasonably can in order to help meet the energy needs of the world. In the video, we comment on the role new companies—rather than legacy entities—usually play in advancing new technologies or paradigms (e.g., Blockbuster Video vs Netflix, Tesla vs traditional auto OEMs, etc.), but reflect on the “adaptation” pushback we have received. An example of successful adaptation includes the improved online presence of legacy brick-and-mortar retailers after initially struggling with the rise of internet retailing.None of this is to argue that there is nothing traditional energy companies should be doing as it relates to future energy technologies, many of which are likely to experience significant growth in coming decades. For some companies, there are logical business extension opportunities. It also seems reasonable to allocate a portion of CAPEX to new energies as a modern version of an “exploration” budget, either directly or by participating in a venture capital portfolio. Finally, we discuss what we believe are the environmental and climate responsibilities of oil & gas companies, including (1) continuing to prioritize health, safety, and the environment (HSE) programs, (2) eliminating Scope 1 emissions, (3) being on a path toward near zero methane flaring/venting/leaks, and (4) helping find solutions to the orphan wells issue in various locations. Ultimately, we believe the world greatly benefits from a healthy US, Canadian, and European oil and gas industry.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide a video update on our view about the need for "energy transition" as a concept to itself transition to one that is focused on meeting the energy supply needs of the 7 billion people that live outside of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan. We discuss our ongoing concerns about risks to financing needed energy supply, which is now materializing in Africa. We highlight that energy transition will likely be approached by countries as meeting a hierarchy of needs, with availability coming first followed by affordability followed by geopolitical security followed by environmental and climate considerations. With that said, an analysis of commodity supply/demand indicates there is a role for both efficiency and new technologies to play in areas that lack sufficient oil, natural gas, or coal supplies.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we present an update on "Where Are We In The Energy Cycle" with a focus on (1) sector profitability; (2) financing for traditional energy; and (3) the need to “extend the runway” by which companies can generate advantaged returns and shareholder distributions. The ROCE cycle remains fundamentally healthy with 4Q2022 sector ROCE staying "above the regression line" so to speak despite falling oil prices since 2Q2022. A key objective for companies and investors will be to avoid the "ROCE quadrilateral of death" which is explained in the video.Financing risk continues to increase as an expanding list of European financial and insurance firms declare they will no longer support new oil & gas developments. The demise of Credit Suisse we believe could accelerate the disappearance of European finance from traditional energy. In the United States, the regional banking crisis sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's failure raises uncertainty about U.S. regional banks in general, a key source of financing especially for smaller traditional energy firms. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how to think about the inherent need in a naturally depleting business to "extend the runway" by adding inventory, projects, or assets at a time investors absolutely want "no new spending" yet its still early in the CAPEX cycle and cost of capital is high and competition is low.

This episode's guest is Arjun Murti, the host of the Super Spiked podcast and partner at Veriten. Arjun spent the first 15 years of his career at Goldman Sachs and worked his way to becoming a Partner. Then he decided to take time off to pursue his personal interests and spend time with his family. Arjun recently got back into the game joining the team over at Veriten, and he has also been putting out some very high quality energy content with his podcast and YouTube videos. This episode we discuss what is really happening with the energy transition, how coal is still on the rise, and how the rumors of oil and gas peak demand have been exaggerated. We talk about how energy equities remain out of favor and how volatility in prices is becoming the new normal.  Lastly, we dive into the issues with moralizing energy usage, how the government is trying to pick the winners and where Arjun sees it all heading from here. Hope you enjoy the show!Arjun's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ArjunNMurti Twitter: https://twitter.com/max_gagliardiTwitter: https://twitter.com/Always_Buildingtiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@max.gagliardiYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@max_gagliardi

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's Super-Spiked video podcast is a discussion on risk taking and future capital availability for traditional energy companies of all shapes and sizes. If you are a public company, we appreciate that it is really difficult to buck the austerity demanded by shareholders. However, an inherently Super Vol macro backdrop and that very hesitancy toward new capital formation in the sector will undoubtedly lead to interesting risk/reward investment opportunities that some will look to capitalize on. Companies that look best positioned today to take advantage of potential opportunities include those that are privately-owned, though not necessarily private equity backed, as well as national oil companies (NOCs). Finally, we discuss our view that EU climate & energy policies as well as the Glasgow Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ) is likely to put downward pressure on capital availability for traditional energy. In my view, no company in any region is immune from these pressures and understanding the direct or trickle down effects to your bank and insurance group is critical.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.A videopod that captures the last 3 written posts on Super-Spiked and what can be learned from the global coal sector when evaluating strategies and investments in oil and gas.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This is part 2 of the videopod series that dives into my January 1, 2023 post, Five Big Questions At The Start of 2023. I look to answer the question: What does Tesla's valuation correction mean for EV growth projections?* First, I take a look at bubble stock cycles and what has been the toggle from the bull phase of fundamental growth, free money, and climate ideology to the bear phase that has been hit by energy pragmatism, the end of free money, and growth deceleration.* Next, I look at the underlying assumptions for “peak” oil demand, which rests on a combination of expected fuel economy improvements along with “hockey stick” EV growth forecasts. * Most notably, there is zero evidence of a step change improvement in either fuel economy gains or, more broadly, global oil demand efficiency relative to GDP growth.* On EVs, the very real and dramatic growth in Tesla sales over the past seven years has led to hockey stick EV adoption assumptions. While I expect EV sales to grow in the years and decades ahead, I believe the hockey stick assumptions will be revised sharply lower in coming years.* As $TSLA's outsize valuation premium versus legacy OEMs diminishes, the significant valuation envy, which has contributed to EV growth strategies at legacy auto makers, will similarly be scaled back, in my view.* In the absence of a step change improvement in oil efficiency gains coupled with what I believe will be downside revisions to EV hockey stick growth forecasts, I would expect oil demand assumptions to be revised higher (relative to the “peak” demand expectations). I believe this will lead to traditional energy regaining “terminal value” credit as the date of its anticipated demise gets pushed to the right.

We kick off the new year with Arjun Murti, the Former Head of Energy Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and the Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. SmarterMarkets™ host David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss some of the big issues facing energy investors in 2023.

A deep dive into question #1 of my “Five Big Questions At The Start of 2023”, which was how to think about ROCE volatility in the short-term versus the longer-term structural ROCE upcycle I believe is unfolding.A pdf of the slide deck used in the video can be downloaded from the link below and a link to last week's written post follows.

In this video I address the age-old question: “Are we at peak for traditional energy?” This is a question always asked after seemingly every rally irrespective of the broader backdrop: structural bull, structural bear, cyclical or seasonal rally. If you want to skip the 17 minute video, the short answer (SPOILER ALERT) is “No, I do not believe we are anywhere near the peak of the structural energy upcycle.” I would also like to wish everyone a Happy Holiday season. This will likely be the last Super-Spiked post for 2022. See you in 2023!!!

A discussion on attracting capital flows back to traditional energy, which I believe is critically needed if we are ever to move to a healthier energy evolution era from the messy energy transition quagmire we find ourselves in.Note: I have started publishing the Videopods on my YouTube channel the day before Super-Spiked is published given the need to copy the link from the YouTube feed into Super-Spiked.

A framework for investors and Oil & Gas companies in navigating the madness that is US/Canada/EU energy public policy and so-called “climate actions”. I also take a look at “anti-woke ESG” funds, which I don't think is the answer to the issues with virtue-signaling ESG.

In this episode of Wicked Energy with JG, Justin sits down with Arjun Murti, Senior Advisor, Director, and Content Creator for the energy industry. Arjun has 30+ years as an equity research analyst with global experience covering oil & gas E&P, midstream, and refining, clean & new energy technologies, geopolitics, and energy & climate policy. Justin brings on Arjun after hearing his take on a Twitter space discussing the importance of Canadian Oil and Gas. During the episode, Arjun shares his take and perspective on why Canada arguably has some of the cleanest barrels in the world and if we truly want to provide clean energy to the world, Canada has a critical role in doing so.  Arjun also discusses his substack called “Super Spiked” that focuses on the messy energy transition era that is upon us. His passion for educating the public on energy and oil and gas has sparked a ton interest amongst people looking for quality, factual information around climate policy, ESG initiatives, and geopolitics with energy commodity/equity markets  If interested in learning more or connecting, see the links below: LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Website: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ Super Spiked Role of Canadian Energy: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/super-spiked-videopods-ep12-the-role#details  Wicked EnergyFor more info on Wicked Energy, please visit www.wickedenergy.io  If you or your company are interested in starting a podcast, visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/free-guide for a free guide on creating a successful podcast. The Wicked Energy with JG podcast is opening up sponsorship opportunities with companies looking to increase reach and awareness with Wicked Energy's audience. Please visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/sponsor for more info. Lastly, if you have any topics or guests you'd like to hear on the show, please email me at justin@wickedenergy.io or send me a message on LinkedIn 

A follow-up on last week's post discussing former Exxon CEO Lee Raymond's unique approach to leadership and ensuring Exxon was a dominant S&P 500 leader during his tenure. What Would Lee Raymond Do in the messy energy transition era we currently are in? Click on the blue button above to hear the audio only in the Substack player or double click on the red button to watch the YouTube video version.

Clip from the most recent 'Next 10+ Leads Challenge' - It's as much about who sees your offers as to how many people see your offers... FREE Training: How to generate more leads in the next 72 hours than the last 90 days combined (Instant access) https://www.neilshoney.com/superspiker

This week's Super-Spiked Videopod examines the interplay between the various themes I have been highlighting in Super-Spiked and how they reinforce or counter-act one another, driving both virtuous and vicious cycles depending on one's perspective and how the themes play out. For audio only, please click on the play button on the Substack player or listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify (links below). For the video presentation, please click on the YouTube play button above or go to my YouTube channel to watch (link below).

The first time the spotlight found Arjun Murti, he didn't like it very much. An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Murti (BSBA 1992) had made a bold—but ultimately correct—prediction about a "super spike" in the price of oil, and his career would never be the same. He shied from the limelight and finished his career in mostly private-facing roles. But now, he's raising his voice, hoping it can change the way the country talks about a transition away from fossil fuels. On the Voices of Experience podcast, Murti explains what the labels "clean" and "green" energy overlook, dissects the Inflation Reduction Act, and offers advice on starting a career and finding a mentor in the business world. Table of Contents: 1:47 From Cornell to DU 2:19 The "Super-Spiked" prediction and its aftermath 9:34 What's wrong with the energy transition discussion? 13:43 "Nothing is clean, green or brown." 15:45 Evaluating the Inflation Reduction Act 19:27 The importance of mentorship 21:14 Picking your career path 25:29 Choosing work-life balance 28:24 Show notes and credits

To close out our When Markets Break series, SmarterMarkets host David Greely sits down with Arjun Murti, the Former Head of Energy Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and the publisher of Super-Spiked on Substack. David and Arjun discuss the July 2008 spike in WTI crude oil prices to a record high of $147 a barrel and their subsequent collapse.

This is the audio from my appearance on the Smarter Markets podcast published August 27, 2022. It was hosted by David Greely, a former Goldman Sachs colleague and current senior economic advisor at Abaxx Technologies. You can listen by pressing play in the Substack media player directly above or you can find the links to listen on Apple podcasts, Spotify, and on my YouTube channel (links below).There will be no Super-Spiked published over Labor Day weekend. See you in two weeks and hope to give everyone a real time update on the European energy crisis, Lexus Holes in 1 at pro-am events, the pros and cons of being private versus publicly traded, and much more.

This week's videopod was originally recorded on Twitter Spaces on August 7, 2022, where I joined #COM to discuss my outlook for Canadian energy. It is an audio only recording, but I have included the YouTube link in case you prefer it to the Substack player.Speakers (in order of appearance):Sohaib Abbas@sohaibab9Arjun⚡️Murti @ArjunNMurtiMark Skittle

I had been following Arjun and enjoyed his views and industry leadership. And when he agreed to stop by the podcast it was cool. Not just cool, but way cool. It was an absolutely great discussion where Arjun articulated some of the real concerns facing the world. Everyone in the world deserves low-cost, sustainable energy.Arjun is an advisor or board member for Veriten, ConocoPhillips, Warburg Pincus LLC, and the Center on Global Energy Policy.We talked about the world's energy policies and the world trying to impose those same failed policies on the less fortunate countries. Let's put the lowest kWh with the least impact on the environment and let the markets decide which type.Listen or watch this podcast, and enjoy listing to an industry leader with some really great ideas. After that, subscribe to his Substack HERE and his LinkedIn HERE., and Twitter HEREI would also like to thank our Sponsor: Enverus. If you have to make a decision in the energy market you need data. If you need energy data there is only one Enverus. Also, we would like to give a shout-out to Mark LaCour with OGGN, Paige Wilson also with OGGN, and David Blackmon for their help in the energy leadership roles with Enverus. It's more fun running down the road together!

⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Bank Proxy Statements and IEA Net Zero ReportPlease find below links to the referenced 2022 proxy statements for the banks mentioned in the videopod. Shareholder resolutions are toward the end of the proxies.Bank of America: link to 2022 proxyCitigroup: link to 2022 proxyGoldman Sachs: link to 2022 proxyJP Morgan: link to 2022 proxyWells Fargo: link to 2022 proxyAll five proxies make reference to the IEA's report, Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector: link to report⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

A 9 minute live update and videopod from the Home of Golf and site of the 150th Open Championship in July. Nine points to match my handicap index to highlight some of the key takeaways from this trip and recent research. And on the handicap, I started playing golf when I stopped at Goldman in 2014. I am happy with the progress I have made. Back to energy, nine takeaways:First, as an American, thank goodness for the combination of US shale oil and gas as well as Canadian energy production. We are balanced in supply/demand for oil and a natural gas exporter. That is not the case here in the UK or Europe more broadly where a climate only ideology has run rampant. To be clear, I support decarbonization efforts. But they cannot come without due consideration for energy availability, affordability, reliability and security...none of which really exists here in the UK or Europe. Second, I suspect the relative maturity of the North Sea means greater investment spending and less hostility from local enviro extremists wouldn't materially change UK or European balances. We are already seeing the early signs of a greater desired co- operation for more American LNG. Both US gas and crude oil as well as Canadian energy are part of the solution to wean Europe off its dependency on hostile nations. Third, in the US oil and gas development can co-exist with climate & environmental progress while also recognizing we need to ensure energy is available, affordable, reliable and secure. We do NOT need to gut climate & enviro regs. But we do need the political class to basically walk and chew gum. We need to push back against American pipeline and infrastructure obstructionism while striving to make American and Canadian barrels and MCFs methane free and ultimately net zero on Scopes 1 and 2. Fourth, on the sector. I am realistic about the short-term-ism that comes with the institutional investor dominance of the sector. I expect commodity prices to be super volatile this decade and during times of weakness, perhaps recession related, it would be normal to expect corrections, potentially meaningful corrections, to occur. But if I could simplify it, energy troughed at 2% of the S&P 500 in October 2020. It is now back to 4%. Based on its expected 2022 earnings share, it should get back to 7% of the S&P...and in my view in the coming years will get back to at least 10% of the S&P.Fifth, on a long-term basis, despite the sharp rally off all-time lows, the sector is still very out of favor. Returns on capital are on-track to be sustainably better than last decade, free cash flow and returning cash to shareholders has replaced production growth as the competitive lens, balance sheet strength is returning, and the wrong mindset that this is a sunset industry, especially in the USA and Canada is simply wrong. US and Canada are about 23 mn b/d of a 100 mn b/d oil (liquids) market. We should be the last barrels produced and a much larger share of the energy pie going forward. Sixth, there is still very little competition for capital in traditional energy. Euro Majors are out. Mainstream private equity is sitting out this funding cycle. NOCs and IOCs are going in different directions. Whose left to invest and when do they come back?Seventh, with no competition and still lots of doom and gloom about the ultimate fate of traditional energy, and what is on-track to be a multi-year possibly decade long energy crisis era, I think it is about as interesting of a time as I can remember for new capital formation. If you have a good idea, AND, can find a sponsor, it's an interesting time.Eighth, we all owe a big thank you to oil and gas industry workers. Go visit an oilfield or refinery. These are not easy jobs. They require hard work and strict attention to health, safety, and the environment. On Wall Street, we mostly interact with senior management. They too are needed. But make no mistake it is the working class that does the hard work to ensure I have enough power to shoot this video.Ninth, Scotland is the Home of Golf. These links courses are spectacular. There is no comparison to golf anywhere else in the world. So, I'll end on a personal note with some first hand, on the ground footage of the energy situation here in the UK. For all of you sensitive types out there, relax, it's for entertainment purposes only.⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Regards,Arjun

A 23 minute video that discusses how we have moved from what was a messy energy transition environment pre-Ukraine to a now full blow energy crisis era post Ukraine, catalyzed by Russia moving to pariah state status. US shale accounted for 70% of global oil supply growth last decade, but faces significant pressures to not grow as fast this coming decade from a combination of traditional investors due to poor historic ROCE, ESG investors focused on energy transition, and current US government policy that is obsessed with virtue signaling about the climate portion of energy and climate policies. US and Canadian oil supply is needed more than ever, especially given the very poor track record of oil supply from pariah states. I continue to emphasize that there is a difference between “good” barrels from the United States and Canada and “bad” barrels from Russia and Iran. Even the most die-hard climate activist should recognize that as we are transitioning, it is better for all aspects of energy and climate policy to prioritize US and Canadian oil and gas production over supply from unfriendly areas. ⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Regards,Arjun

A 4.5 minute intra-week videopod to highlight the notable rhetorical shift from various politicians and “climate only” types that are increasingly calling for more US shale and today, incredibly, more Canadian oil. We need more good barrels and fewer bad barrels.⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Regards,Arjun

My apologies for all the background noise, but it was recorded live on location at 8th Wonder Brewery in Houston where the event was held.The intersection of crypto, bitcoin, and Web 3.0 with energy markets, both traditional and low-carbon, is a general topic area I am in the process of ramping up on. Toward that end, I attended the Digital Wildcatter's EMPOWER: Energizing Bitcoin conference at Houston's 8th Wonder Brewery on March 30-31. Casual dress, a brewery, a "Beetles" stage, bitcoin mining demonstration projects, and free bottled water helped create an excellent learning environment (for the record, I did not drink any beer during this Houston visit). TakeawaysSignal vs noise. I will use my ESG views as an analogy to bitcoin/crypto. With ESG, I have differentiated between the “virtue signaling” variety that we could all do without and I think causes far more harm than good and “substantive” ESG that is indeed needed. The equivalent for bitcoin/crypto, in my view, are what I believe are called the Bitcoin maximalists that believe the US dollar is doomed and Bitcoin is its inevitable replacement. While I reserve the right to change my mind in the future, I do not share the view that Bitcoin will be an excellent reserve currency replacement for the US dollar. The part of the crypto-verse I do find highly intriguing is the potential for distributed blockchain ledger technology to allow for digital privacy, asset ownership, contracts, decentralization, reduced dependency on Big Tech and Big Banks, and related themes.Future currency? Not so fast. While I agree that fiat currency debasement is a fact of life, I am unaware of hard currency alternatives that lead to better societal outcomes. I also have not heard any Bitcoin maximalist accurately (in my view) describe the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies and what it means or doesn't mean for money creation. To that end, I would encourage everyone to listen to Jeff Snider and Emil Kalinowsky on their excellent Eurodollar University podcast (Spotify or Apple Podcasts) for a real education on the Federal Reserve, monetary policy, and the plumbing of our global financial system. The US dollar, like democracy and capitalism, is far from perfect. But it is better than every alternative humankind has come up with thus far.Web 3! Crypto via so-called "proof of work" is the fuel that allows blockchain verification in a "trustless" environment. Proof of work is compute power intensive; hence the link between Web 3 and energy markets. It is early days for Web 3. My initial take is that we are in the "Amazon starts selling books online" stage of it. The long-term upside potential is meaningful for energy markets to the extent proof of work remains the enabling mechanism to secure the blockchain.Methane/gas management. Currently, the relationship between traditional energy companies and bitcoin miners comes via stranded gas arrangements. Or perhaps more accurately, areas where an E&P company wants to grow oil production but there is inadequate natural gas takeaway capacity. Bitcoin miners have struck deals to capture natural gas that would otherwise have been flared/vented (which is terrible, by the way) in order to generate power via a natural gas generator, which is then used to power the massive ASIC computers used to mine bitcoin. The oil company benefits by receiving value for otherwise worthless natural gas, while also benefitting the environment via reduced flaring/venting. A private Bakken E&P and its bitcoin mining partner at the conference indicated the E&P was receiving a price for its gas that was greater than zero but less than the equivalent pipeline gas price.Bitcoin miners want cheap, reliable power. Apparently bitcoin miners are no different than all of the rest of humanity in desiring the least expensive, most reliable power. In some applications, this comes through renewables like solar, wind, and hydro. In other cases, it will come through stranded natural gas. Importantly, bitcoin miners enjoy (seemingly) near complete location flexibility, which could be helpful to monetizing energy resources in remote locations (e.g., Africa, rural/in-land locations).⚡️On a personal note...I would like to acknowledge Josh Crumb of ABAXX Technologies and Max Gagliardi of the TalkEnergy podcast for sparking my interest in this topic, and the team at the Digital Wildcatter's for hosting this unique conference.⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Regards,Arjun

It's CERAWeek in Houston and we are thrilled to be back in person visiting with great minds in the energy universe. We have a special guest and good friend joining us for this week's session: Arjun Murti, Author of Super-Spiked, Board Member and PE Senior Advisor. Arjun is a seasoned energy expert and has spent his 30-year career researching and analyzing global energy markets. We had much to discuss!First, we touched on Arjun's recent piece, "Energy Security and the Case for Canada." Arjun provided background on his inspiration to launch his platform, Super-Spiked, and what he is doing to help change the energy dialogue. From there, we segued into energy policies over the last 20 years, why we should be arguing for both energy security and climate, fuel economy and the concept of decoupling economic growth from oil and gas demand growth, the quest for the US and Canada to be the low-cost carbon provider to the world, and his 10-year outlook on energy. It was fascinating to note the many connections between our discussion and the sessions taking place at CERA.Mike Bradley kicked off today's lead-in with an energy market performance update and key observations from CERAWeek. Colin Fenton shared reflections from his CERA panel that looked at the economic outlook for 2022-2023 and noted a few market numbers to keep an eye on. As you may remember, Colin previously made the connection between box office receipts and economic outlook and to our delight he has updated data from The Batman's recent release.

Given fast moving developments due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I am departing from my normal weekend update routine to provide this short intra-week video macro commentary. For the foreseeable future, I will aim to provide more frequent interim updates, as needed, to go along with the regular weekend posts.For full video, double click on video play button below or use this link to watch on YouTube.For audio only, press the black play button above.3 Ways to SubscribeAll Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox, where you will also be able to hit reply to interact with me directly. All content can also be found on the Super-Spiked website.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and to interact with me directly.YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.CreditsIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

For full video, double click on video play button below or use this link to watch on YouTube.For audio only, press the black play button above.3 Ways to SubscribeAll Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday or Sunday.Enter your email to receive all Super-Spiked content directly to your inbox.YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti. I have been averaging about 1 video per month.Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.Related PostsPrevious Super-Spiked VideopodsESG 2.0 and Energy Transition Framework (EP2)ROCE Deep Dive (EP1)DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.CreditsIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

Super-Spiked YouTube link (click the link to the left or double click on video below or audio only is above)You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed of the Super-Spiked Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app.You can subscribe directly to the Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti video feed on my YouTube channel.DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.CreditsIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.ESG 2.0 and Energy Transition series This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

YouTube videoSuper-Spiked YouTube link (click this link to the left)Subscribe to Super-Spiked VideopodsAudio podcast: You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed of the Super-Spiked Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app.YouTube: You can subscribe directly to the video feed on my YouTube channel.Exhibits referenced in this episodeROCE Deep Dive Post #3DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment video/podcast and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.CreditsIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

Please find episode 3 of the Super-Spiked Podcast, now available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app.In episode 3, I focus on highlights of the post, Dumb Calls I Made As A Street Analyst, Post #1: OXY post the March 2000 Altura Energy acquisition.Exhibits referenced in this podcast This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

Please find episode 2 of the Super-Spiked Podcast. Super-Spiked Podcast is now available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app.In episode 2, I focus on key highlights of the 2nd ROCE Deep Dive post, From Fake Well IRRs and Capital Surplus to ROCE and Capital Discipline.Exhibits referenced in this podcast This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

Please find my inaugural voice memo explainer of my December 7, 2021 post, From Not-For-Profit to a New ROCE Super-Cycle (link to full note below). I reference Exhibits 1, 2 and 6, which I have also copied below. Clicking the “play” button will take you to the weblink where you can listen. My apologies that at the time of publication, I am not yet set-up for this to appear in popular podcast apps. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com