Podcasts about cellos

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we provide our latest thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the news of a “peace deal” having been reached between the U.S. and Iran. We recorded this on Wednesday, June 17, two days ahead of the expected signing on Friday, June 19. We think these comments will hold up even if there are any unexpected developments prior to Saturday publication. If not, we will follow up on Twitter-X and LinkedIn. 0:00 Introduction 0:43 Lee Raymond – Greatest CEO of My Career 4:24 SoH Crisis – Big Picture Thoughts On Oil Markets 8:07 SoH Crisis – Crude Oil S/D 19:12 War & Peace – USA vs Iran 21:38 Long-Term Energy Macro Implications 25:55 WWLRD If He Was An Active CEO Now? 31:10 On A Personal Note – A New Top Life Moment

Special Guest: Benjamin Hebbert.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.A few oil macro oriented thoughts today following an interesting week that started at a fuels distribution conference in Las Vegas just prior to last weekend and ended in Vienna on Monday at the OPEC Secretariat where I moderated one of two non-OPEC supply outlook panels as part of OPEC's 19th Annual Technical Meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries. Our key message today is that the promise of the Strait of Hormuz re-opening following the ceasefire that was announced just about two months ago is giving way to an entrenched stalemate that suggests company executives and investors should brace for both the opportunity and turmoil that comes from big jumps in oil prices but also the inevitable pullbacks that follow as supply/demand clears. We expect that process of super volatility to be a repeatable feature of the current era. While high volatility is often thought of as depressing equity valuations, which is true, it also will depress the instinct by companies to spend capital, which in turn will prove supportive of profitability. How best to value volatile cash flows in publicly-traded equities is always a challenge and a theme we will continue to focus on.We are including the link to the ZeroHedge webinar Arjun did with Jeff Currie as discussed (here).0:00 Introduction 1:40 ZeroHege “Oil Debate” With Jeff Currie 5:56 Valuing Oil-Exposed Equities In A Super Vol Macro Backdrop 8:06 OPEC Meeting Takeaways 10:34 On A Personal Note

Becka Hannigan sits down with Celso de Mello, co-founder of Arcos Brasil, to discuss the changing world of bow making, exotic wood conservation, and the increasingly complex realities of working with Pernambuco and alternative bow woods in Brazil. Celso shares his firsthand perspective from decades in the industry, beginning in the mid-1990s when regulations surrounding Pernambuco were less restrictive, through the major CITES changes of 2007, and into the modern era of strict tracking, auditing, and environmental oversight. He explains how the Brazilian government monitors and documents wood through extensive databases and chain-of-custody systems, creating a highly regulated environment for makers and exporters. The conversation explores Arcos Brasil's long history in the bow trade, the company's involvement in conservation and replanting efforts, and the broader challenge of preserving both endangered species and the centuries-old tradition of bow making. Celso also discusses the company's transition in recent years toward producing bows from Ipe and other alternative woods as the industry adapts to evolving regulations and environmental realities. Resources: https://arcosbrasil.com/ http://www.ipci-usa.org/support.html https://www.alliance-international.org/know-your-bow-postcard/Special Guest: Celso de Mello.

How do we preserve pernambuco while protecting the future of bow making? In this episode of Omo, hosts Becka Hannigan and Brooke Esplin speaks with renowned bow maker Lynn Hannings and arts policy advocate Heather Noonan about pernambuco conservation, international regulation, and the realities facing the bow world in 2026. Lynn Hannings brings decades of experience as a professional bassist, bow maker, restorer, and educator. A longtime teacher at the University of New Hampshire Violin Craftsmanship Institute and current Vice President of Alliance-International, she has been a leading voice in sustainable bow making and conservation efforts within the industry. Heather Noonan, Vice President for Advocacy at the League of American Orchestras, works at the intersection of arts policy, government relations, and international treaty negotiations involving protected species and the movement of musical instruments across borders. The discussion covers the history of pernambuco regulation, recent CITES negotiations, sustainable forestry efforts, and current bow wood restrictions. These regulations exist not to end bow making, but to preserve these species so they can continue to be responsibly used for generations to come. In order to really protect the future of Pernambuco in Brazil and our precious music traditions, we will need coordination and cooperation from all shops, makers, and musicians. This is not the time for apathy, but for action! Resources: https://www.alliance-international.org/know-your-bow-postcard/ https://www.alliance-international.org/ https://americanorchestras.org/ http://www.ipci-usa.org/support.html https://shop.lahbows.com/Special Guests: Heather Noonan and Lynn Hannings.

主播｜小伙子 嘉宾｜孟庆延天津队守门员施连志指导三十年前的一段采访，最近意外走红互联网，大家纷纷玩梗“最佳状态”。于是小伙子请来天津籍学者孟庆延老师，聊聊“最佳状态”。如果说生活有最佳状态，那到底是由什么组成的？这是一个值得拆解与探讨的事。每一个人想要自己的最佳状态，又该用什么方法论去实现呢，如果实现不了又该怎么办？就在这样有点残酷的拆解当中，话题渐渐深入。他俩聊到最后，确认了一个事实：人出生之后有了意识，将会在某一天知道自己未来会向死亡，这往后的人生或许就是一场漫长的自我PUA。如果是这样，那么就让我们与这段pua共舞。｜songlist｜Il Giardino Armonico - Concerto for 2 Cellos in G minor RV531I Allegro【收听平台】小宇宙｜喜马拉雅｜苹果播客｜网易云音乐｜荔枝｜蜻蜓FM｜QQ音乐｜酷我音乐｜酷狗音乐｜微博音频｜虎扑｜三联中读｜听听FM｜知乎｜豆瓣｜虎嗅｜猫耳FM｜Spotify｜YouTube｜关注我们｜日谈公园，曾获小宇宙年度热门播客、喜马拉雅品牌青睐播客、Apple播客年度最佳播客、网易云音乐年度语言播客、荔枝APP年度品质播客等多项殊荣，并发起“日光派对”播客MCN，提供播客经济相关服务。这些年，我们曾获得过以下这些荣誉，感谢各个平台一直以来的厚爱与支持。点击日谈公园品牌官网（链接：https://www.ritanbbpark.com/），了解更多微信公众号：日谈公园微博：@日谈公园小红书：日谈公园即刻：日谈李小日B站：日谈公园今日头条：日谈公园（部分节目独家图文仅在头条号更新，欢迎关注）｜商务合作｜欢迎发送邮件至 bbpark@ritanbbpark.com

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no PowerPoint slide deck this week.This week we introduce the topic of how to think about energy equity valuations given a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop. Traditional valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA are likely to prove especially unhelpful at a time of major geopolitical uncertainty and commodity volatility. We harken back to the framework we used in the early 2010s for US refiners when Brent-WTI first blew out to around $20/bbl when surging shale oil production unexpectedly filled up pipelines and infrastructure. At the time, investors treated every press release of a contemplated pipeline reversal as solving the bottleneck. Spreads did ultimately narrow meaningfully, as expected, but the transient “above normal” cash flows were not worth zero as the market was initially ascribing. Our framework gave “one-time” credit to temporary cash flows and full credit for our estimate of mid-cycle earnings. This is not a perfect analogy for a geopolitical event like the Strait of Hormuz, but we think the framework is a good one for this environment.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This is the 100th Super-Spiked video podcast. We've also had an additional 114 written posts that for no obvious reason we account for with its own numbering system, a point that we are sure is of interest to no one and we will merge going forward in case you are wondering why we'll jump to #215 next week. In celebration of our 100th episode, we recorded this a week early ahead of a guy's golf trip to Scotland, where we'll be playing Turnberry, Prestwick, Royal Troon, and Western Gailes. 8 rounds in 5 days is way to ambitious for a bunch of guys in their upper 50s. More on that in the On A Personal Note at the end of this video. Our key focus this week will be discussing how we think the world should think about energy macro scenarios. It should not surprise anyone that we do not believe the world will go back to viewing CO2 as an organizing principle for energy. We have been asked if not “net zero” then what? We attempt to answer that question this week. We start off by taking a look at the key themes from 2022 at the start of Super-Spiked. Those initial themes have stood the test of time. This 100th episode is targeted at a combination of corporate executives, board members, policy people, and the macro economics and sustainability people within companies. It's probably not for everyone, but that has been one of our philosophies. We are not looking to maximize views of Super-Spiked. We hope it will be accessible to everyone, but this one in particular is aimed at a smaller subset of key decision makers. 0:00 Introduction2:06 Our Key Themes from 2022 Have Stood the Test of Time11:40 Won't Net Zero Make a Comeback in 2028?17:31 If Not Net Zero, Then What?21:46 How Should Energy Macro Scenarios Be Reframed? 23:30 On A Personal Note

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we have some quick comments on a trio of topics including (1) macro risk/reward at the two-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, (2) UAE's decision to withdraw from OPEC, and (3) the attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. All these themes fit well within our Geopolitical Super Vol theme. 0:00 Introduction 0:42 Macro risk/reward at the 2-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed 8:27 UAE's decision to withdraw from OPEC 13:08 The attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. 17:45 On A Personal NoteSubscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have officially entered a timeline where classical music is controversial.Not lyrics glorifying violence. Not explicit content. Not even political propaganda. No, the problem—according to the ever-vigilant outrage patrol—is that stores like Walgreens and 7-Eleven are playing Bach and opera… and it's working. Fewer people loitering. Fewer encampments. Fewer disruptions to customers trying to buy toothpaste without stepping over a human tragedy.And somehow, that's the scandal.[X] SB – Classical music to keep Blacks awayScience behind it?Let's just say it out loud: at least it's not water cannons and German shepherds. Nobody's getting sprayed off the sidewalk like it's a 1960s newsreel. No one's being chased down an alley. It's violins, people. Cellos. A harpsichord having a quiet little moment.Johann Sebastian Bach is now apparently the face of systemic oppression.The psychology of why this works. The Left's selective compassion, which somehow has more energy for critiquing playlists than fixing homelessness. The economic reality for businesses stuck in the middle. And finally, the cultural irony of declaring classical music—arguably one of humanity's highest artistic achievements—as a tool of dehumanization.Because if Bach is the problem… then what exactly is the solution?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We are now recording an audio summary of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube and you can listen to by clicking the button below.This week we expand on the Energy Technology component of our Geopolitical Super Vol framework we introduced last week (here). The massive unmet energy needs of the other seven billion people on Earth were already driving investment in new energy technologies in particular for countries not blessed with sufficient domestic resources like crude oil, natural gas, or coal. A backdrop of structurally increased geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil, in particular amongst the largest economies in the world, will drive a doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on a wide swath of new technologies that help meet energy needs. For The Lucky 1 Billion of Us, there is a need to invest in the technologies that allow our industries to compete in a host a new areas and to no longer simply cede all manufacturing to China and other Asian countries—as the U.S. and Western Europe have done over the past 25 years.The new technology areas we are most interested in span four broad buckets:* Grid optimization and enhancement* Power generation* Demand diversification opportunities, which encompasses areas like EVs (electric vehicles), LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks, and energy efficiency* Manufacturing and industrial competitiveness via physical AI, robotics, and automationIn this post we:* differentiate between “Energy Tech,” which we believe has a very favorable outlook, and “Climate Tech,” the latter of which always seemed non-sensical to us.* highlight the key areas we are watching most closely within the new technology buckets noted above.* provide a progress report on hyperscaler profitability given the massive ramp in CAPEX seen by those companies.* highlight Aramco as an AI and technology leader.The opportunity for investment spans a broad spectrum of companies, technologies, and regions across a range of sectors including technology, industrials, traditional energy, new energies, power, infrastructure, metals, minerals, and mining. In a nutshell, Energy & Power + Technology + Industrials + Metals & Materials convergence.For all Super-Spiked content, follow me at https://arjunmurti.substack.com or at https://veriten.com.X (Twitter): @ArjunNMurti DISCLAIMERMy views are my own and not attributable to any current or past affiliation.CREDITSIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.As we teased in last week's video, we want to expand on the evolution of our Super Vol commodity macro framework to explicitly rebrand it Geopolitical Super Vol. Since Russia-Ukraine, we have resisted the super-cycle framing that we think implies a smoothness to an upcycle like seen during the 2000s China-BRICs expansion period. The current environment is more like the 1970s—arguably a super-cycle, but one with a lot more choppiness and stress along the way. The current decade is shaping up to be a modern version of that era, with some important differences.Although we are calling it Geopolitical Super Vol, we want to be clear on a few conclusions:* We believe structural profitability and opportunities for growth are significant for a broad range of companies involved in traditional energy, new energy technology, the power value chain, and a host of raw materials.* We believe the corresponding S&P 500 weighting for these sectors will increase meaningfully in the decade ahead.* It is the inevitable sharp economic downturns along the way that motivates us sticking with and evolving the Super Vol language. You can't demand that which does not exist—and that means sharp commodity spikes will be met with similarly sharp pullbacks during this era.0:00 Introduction2:41 A Break from The 1980-2020 World View6:22 Implications for Energy Sector10:48 Investing in Energy, Power, and Materials14:44 Obliterating Pre-Iran Views16:36 Obliterating Pre-Pre-Iran Views18:53 Be Wary of Perma Bulls and Perma Bears20:36 Be Wary of Net Zero Rebranded21:58 Energy's Natural Hierarch of Needs Remains Our North Star22:39 FAQ #1: How do we think about global recession risk?24:38 FAQ #2: What are lessons learned from the Asia Financial Crisis of 1997-9?27:15 FAQ #3: What does the traditional energy profitability cycle look like in Geopolitical Super Vol?28:51-32:10 On A Personal Note: Feedback vs PushbackSubscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com..

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.For the past month we have been recording these videos several days in advance of publication and repeating the line that we hope peace will have been declared and the Strait reopened by the time of Saturday publication. Today the message is different. We are recording this late morning New York time on Thursday, April 9. A fragile ceasefire is sort of still in place and there is optimism that shipping volumes in and out of the Strait of Hormuz is on track to revert to something much higher than where we've been. It will of course take some time to get back to fully normal pre-War flows.We were originally planning a longer discussion with a power point on evolving our Super Vol theme to more explicitly call it Geopolitical Super Vol, and we will touch upon that in this video podcast. But given the dramatic ceasefire news and major equity and commodity market moves, we will instead address nine questions and takeaways that we see from this crisis.0:00 Introduction1:30 Q1: What is your most important takeaway following the ceasefire?2:50 Q2: In the short-term, will oil prices revert to pre-War levels?6:02 Q3: What about oil prices over the medium-to-longer-term?10:18 Q4: How was such a sizable shock not even worse in terms of impacts?13:07 Q5: What is your take away for US consumers? 15:26 Q6: Where could we be better?18:39 Q7: What about Canada?20:30 Q8: Why are we sticking with Super Vol as our price framework?23:04 Q9: So where do you come out on investment in both traditional and new energies?24:54 On A Personal NoteSubscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.We spent the past week in Houston at the always great CERAWeek conference hosted by S&P Global. On behalf of all my colleagues at Veriten, a big thank you to Dan Yergin and the entire S&P Global team for putting on a great event. CERAWeek 2026 came amidst what is now week four of the War in Iran and the continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We are recording this late on Wednesday, March 25 and as always hope that by the time this is released on Saturday morning, the Strait will have reopened to normal flows and the war ended. Its ongoing closure is simply untenable for the global economy. It is ultimately not good for energy companies, which is our focus area, even if current oil and gas pricing is elevated. A quick end to the war and the reopening of the Strait is the best-case scenario for energy companies everywhere.This week we'll provide some takeaways from CERAWeek 2026. We will bucket our takeaways in 3 key themes: (1) Macro outlook and scenarios; (2) The day after the war ends, what comes next for energy companies? (3) What unexpected changes will come from this crisis?Our current plan is to not publish Super-Spiked over Easter/Passover weekend. We hope everyone is able to take some time off.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 18. This week we address five questions that have arisen regarding our views on the potential long-term impacts of the war in Iran.* Does our Super-Spike oil demand destruction framework need adjusting for an abrupt geopolitical spike?* What advance warning signs are we watching to assess economic damage and risks to capital markets?* How does Iran impact our view of the traditional energy profitability cycle and terminal value recognition?* Does the war change which regions we prefer for future CAPEX?* How does Iran impact our Power Surge (power super-cycle) view?Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.SLIDE 3: Super-Spike Framework In A Geopolitical Event?Key points:* Our March 2005 “Super-Spike” framework was used to assess how high oil prices could reach in order to slow oil demand growth to levels of available supply in an environment of structurally strong global GDP growth (BRICs expansion).* We chose “super” to indicate the oil upcycle was multi-year in nature. We chose “spike” to remind ourselves and our clients that inevitably oil would surely rollover as cycle dynamics ensured a future period of oversupply (or under-demand).* At the end of the day, the super-cycle is always one of sector profitability, with oil prices just one (important) component along with costs and capital intensity.Current environment:* The War in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not analogous to that 2004-2014 period. This is an acute geopolitical disruption.* Therefore, the framework we used over 2004-2014 has its limitations. Most notably, the sudden, dramatic jump in oil prices could mean that absolute levels do not need to reach the heights implied in the table on the right.* It also suggests that “Super Vol” remains the better framing for energy commodity markets, including crude oil, oil products, and global spot LNG prices.* Be wary of perma bears and perma bulls! For the bears: cycles have to play out. For bulls: it is always a cycle.Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction frameworkSource: Bloomberg, EIA, Federal Reserve, Veriten.SLIDE 4: What Advance Warning Signs Are We Watching?* Bull to bear can happen quickly and unexpectedly…July to December 2008 saw WTI drop from over $140/bbl to under $40/bbl.* How can one differentiate between the July 2007 collapse of two Bear Stearns credit funds and the March 2023 issues with Silicon Valley Bank?* So why worry this time? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is simply intolerable if measured in months rather than weeks. The Age of Drones is a game changer, as we see in Russia-Ukraine.* Fortress balance sheet, understanding controls and contracts, and aiming to not only survive but thrive during turmoil is the goal.SLIDE 5: How Does Iran Impact The Profitability CycleKey points:* It remains our view that traditional energy is firmly within a new profitability super-cycle that began in 2021 and would be expected to last 10+ years.* Structural profitability cycles are inherently long-term in nature, 10-15 years up, 10-15 years down. The prior downcycle ran from a 2010 peak to a 2020 trough.* Within the structural up or down cycles, numerous mini-cycles occur along the way. We believe 2025 marked a “normal” trough following a 2.5 years mini-downcycle.* We rejected “oil glut” arguments that have prevailed since Liberation Day (April 2025). We agree that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz renders impossible a true accounting of who was right—oil glutters or us.Current environment:* We have been surprised by the fact that capital discipline at the sector level has remained intact.* A true, multi-year upcycle would undoubtedly test discipline. But let's judge it as we go: so far, so good.* The main risk to seeing a “deep trough” (as opposed to normal) would be an extended closure of the Strait and a collapse in the global economy. We take this risk seriously.* The best case scenario for the profitability cycle would be a quick re-opening that ensured limited adverse global GDP impacts.Exhibit 2: Traditional energy sector profitabilitySource: Bloomberg, FactSet, VeritenSLIDE 6: Does The War Change Regional CAPEX Preferences?* There are no absolutes…it is all opportunity specific.* Oil exploration: Algeria vs UK North Sea circa 1991-1994.* Natural gas import infrastructure: New York state (Appalachia) versus Germany (Russia).* Many areas of the Middle East will attract capital irrespective of how this plays out.* Between COVID, Russia-Ukraine, and now Strait of Hormuz, supply chain security will remain ascendent as an issue. Positive for NAM, power, energy source diversification (new and old tech).SLIDE 7: What Impact Is There On Our Power Surge View?* If a general financial/credit crisis materializes, this is a sector that commonly uses leverage and is now in growth mode.* There will be winners and there will be losers.* Execution: Understanding contracts, supply chains, and liquidity are all critical.* At the end of the day, Power Surge we think persists beyond and through this war due to the need to grow power generation to address aging western world grids, industrial reshoring, electrification, and AI & digital transformation.⚡️On A Personal Note: Super-Spike ReactionsFor On A Personal Note, we refer you to the video where Arjun further reflects on his March 30, 2005 “Super-Spike period may be upon us” report.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 11. As we think everyone by now realizes, the Strait Hormuz is a critical bottleneck to not only crude oil exports from the region but also LNG from Qatar. We have no idea how long the current war will last. The longer it goes, the greater the risk of a painful energy crisis materializing. We do not think that fact is lost on anyone that is participating in or observing the conflict.In this kind of very acute situation, an energy crisis would be bad for everyone be it citizens, governments, and even traditional energy companies over the long run as whatever benefit accrues from short term price appreciation would likely be lost from future economic weakness. No reasonable person in and around the energy sector is rooting for war. Even if shipping were to resume in coming days or weeks out of the Straight, we suspect the realization of what has long been considered a “worse case” geopolitical risk for oil markets—and now LNG—will motivate countries to pursue changes that mitigate this risk of future disruptions.This week we have two key messages: (1) we revisit our “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction framework we first rolled out in March 2005 at Goldman Sachs. It was a career call for us. The basic points of our analysis we think stand the test of time. (2) we discuss various diversification opportunities that we think countries will or should take to reduce the risk of future disruptions long after this current crisis has hopefully abated.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.SLIDE 1: Cover SlideSLIDE 2: Strait of Hormuz: Long-Term Impacts On Oil, LNG* How will it be secured in an age of drones?* Inverse COVID: Refreshing our oil demand destruction framework.* Baseload energy diversification opportunities:* US Natural Gas: Lots of growth, where to invest?* Coal: A base-load domestic fuel, why not an EU comeback?* Nuclear: Back in vogue, but how long to grow again in US/EU?* Considerations: (1) What's real, what's hype? (2) Where in value chain to invest? (3) Who do you trust to allocate capital?SLIDE 3: Revisiting Our Oil “Super-Spike” FrameworkKey points:* We used the US since it has sizeable demand and freely floating retail gasoline prices.* Wider economy structurally outperforms gasoline.* But that means a much higher nominal price is required to destroy demand versus a prior cycle.* Gasoline demand is highly inelastic.* Both absolute price and rate of change are relevant.How to read the table/graph:* The graph shows historic gasoline spending (demand x retail price) relative to personal consumer expenditures.* Retail gasoline price equals the crude oil price + refining margin (to turn crude oil into gasoline) + gasoline taxes + “all other” (retail margin + other costs).* The table holds retail margin plus all other as constant and shows sensitivities to varying levels of gasoline spending as a % of PCE and refining margins.Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction frameworkSource: Bloomberg, EIA, Veriten.SLIDE 4: US Natural Gas: Lots of Growth, Where to Invest?US natural gas markets have doubled over past 20 years and are on-track to grow substantially over next decade. US natural gas resource is plentiful; infrastructure-enabled access to higher-valued end markets is critical.Exhibit 2: Global demand for US natural gasSource: EIA, Veriten.Exhibit 3: Gas value chain CROCISource: FactSet, VeritenSLIDE 5: Coal: A Baseload Domestic Fuel, EU Comeback?Growth in coal in China has swamped the reduction in EU and US coal use. We see no reason the EU & US could not, at a minimum, reverse the declines seen over the last 25 years. It's a drop in the bucket! Moving factories from the EU & US to China is net negative for carbon emissions, geopolitical security, and labor markets in the EU and US.Exhibit 4: Size of global power marketsSource: Energy Institute, VeritenExhibit 5: Growth in coal consumptionSource: Energy Institute, VeritenSLIDE 6: Nuclear: Back In Vogue, But How Long To Grow?Nuclear is again recognized as an important baseload fuel that can favorably add to system diversification. China is growing rapidly versus stagnation in the US and decline in EU. What opportunities exist to improve execution in the developed world? What is the viability (vs hype) of advanced technologies to boost growth?Exhibit 6: Nuclear generation by country/regionSource: Energy Institute, Veriten.⚡️On A Personal Note: 21 Years Later…

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We are coming to you from Houston following my participation earlier this week at the Aspen Institute's Winter Energy Forum. This week we provide thoughts on Iran and the latest Middle East conflict. As usual, our focus is on what the long-term implications could be for companies and investors. Our ten initial long-term takeaways are as follows: 1 - Super Vol remains our commodity macro mantra. 2 - Middle East turmoil now as relevant to LNG (liquefied natural gas) as crude oil. 3 - Overhyped oil glut call. 4 - Energy source/technology diversification is a must for countries. 5 - Renewables and other new energies will continue to gain traction. 6 - The case for coal. 7- The case for Canada. 8 – Use unexpected free cash flow to reinforce fortress balance sheets. 9 - Undisruptable oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals. 10 - Commerce over chaos and a brighter future for the Middle East.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We would encourage those of you that only listen to or watch the video podcasts to go and read our written post from last week (here), as we plan to be more inclusive of coal, copper, and critical minerals going forward to go along with our analysis and commentary on traditional and new energy and power. The title was “Undirsuptable” and focused on the significant profitability and growth opportunities we see in oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals amidst the A.I. boom and our new era of geopolitical competition.This week we want to address a comment we received last weekend about how we think about terminal value in especially the legacy areas of energy; we will add coal and copper to that list. In a nutshell, that was the point of last week's post! Here's the punch line: Yes, we think traditional energy, coal, and copper companies are as a group deserving of terminal value recognition in their share prices especially for the leading companies that have most clearly demonstrated the potential for long-term returns and growth. We see the three key drivers of terminal value recognition as being (1) rising demand for all the raw material inputs to modern life; (2) double-digit full-cycle corporate-level returns on capital; (3) growth and risk taking.

You're riding along with Kaitlyn Raitz as she breaks down the real mechanics of touring at scale: staying human on a bus, finding tiny routines that keep you sane, and surviving the sleep math when you're one of twelve buses on a massive run. Then it's straight into the onstage reality of modern country arena production: 24 musicians, a full string quartet, choir, and horns, plus the challenge of making strings translate in a loud arena. You get the practical gear-and-tech layer too: DPA mics and pickups, dynamic EQ, managing cello loudness, and how tools like ToneDexter fit into keeping tone consistent when the room is working against you. You also get the career side, unfiltered: how the Eric Church gig happened through the Nashville relationship web, why being excellent and easy to be around matters, and why “Nashville is a ten-year town” if you want longevity. Kaitlyn's stories span arranging and learning charts mid-tour from iPads, to the whiplash of getting a Grammy call with barely any runway, to recording in LA and wondering how anyone actually functions there. The episode closes with the mindset and performance skills that keep pros durable: protecting your brain and nervous system, flipping a stage persona on and off, and the practical win of transitioning to IEMs for a cellist when monitors are run well. Bottom line: this is how you keep your craft sharp, your head steady, and your show consistent night after night. Always Be Performing.​ 00:00:00 Gig Gab 522 – Monday, February 23rd, 2026 February 23rd: Curling Is Cool Day Guest co-host: Kaitlyn Raitz 00:01:55 Protein and Joy on the bus 00:02:14 Passing the time productively on the bus…and on the tour Swimming Swimply OR PlacesToSwim.com Thrifting 00:05:53 Sleeping on the bus! Twelve tour busses on this tour 00:07:26 24 Musicians on stage String Quartet 8-Person Choir Horn/Woodwind Quartet 00:09:45 Micing a string quartet in an arena DPA Mics AND pickups Dynamic EQ 00:14:47 Cellos and Loudness ToneDexter 00:18:50 Writing, arranging and learning charts mid-tour! Reading from iPads Eleanor Denning, String Lead and Arranger on the Eric Church Tour Bitter Pill has a cellist, too! 00:21:33 Getting the Eric Church gig Sub list for the Nashville Symphony Everything in Nashville is relationship-based Be good at what you do, and also be a pleasant person that people want to be around Nashville is a ten-year town 00:25:07 SPONSOR: Squarespace. Check out https://www.squarespace.com/GIGGAB to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain using code GIGGAB. 00:26:55 You played on the Grammy's? Used to play with Brandy Clark, and occasionally gets a one-off gig call still. AND, a week-and-a-half before the Grammy's, the call came in Do you want to play the Grammy's with me? Kaitlyn has questions for LA-denizens: How do you live in LA? Do you see people that you know? Do you take public transportation? Recorded at Sunset Sounds in LA 00:33:05 Protecting your brain and nervous system Take on a persona “You are Kaitlyn Motherfucking Raitz” “We are bad bitches, we have earned this” Gary Cherone is the master of turning the stage persona on AND OFF Let the lights blind you 00:40:25 Transitioning to IEMs It's great for a cellist! IEMs are better than having to use bone conduction Kaitlyn's IEM mix – she hears the band It comes down to who's running monitors Ultimate Ears UE7 Pros IEMs 00:47:06 Kaitlyn Raitz's Music 00:48:52 Gig Gab 522 Outtro Follow Kaitlyn Raitz On Instagram On Facebook Contact Gig Gab! @GigGabPodcast on Instagram feedback@giggabpodcast.com Sign Up for the Gig Gab Mailing List The post From the Eric Church Tour to the Grammys: On the Bus with Cellist Kaitlyn Raitz – Gig Gab 522 appeared first on Gig Gab.

Aquiles and Liz interview Mackenzie Miller about Denver Violins. Special Guest: Mackenzie Miller .

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We are still in road warrior mode, having only been at our primary residence for 13 of the first 45 days of 2026. Though I have to say, industry events this year in Miami, Whistler, and Cabo will leave many of you not feeling too sorry for us. So this week we have a very quick FAQ on the “take risk” messaging we've been using for 2026, and they are all around the theme of how to think about corporate strategy in a world of maturing US shale oil.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we have some fun with Bloomberg pictures we created that highlight the information one can sometimes glean about traditional energy from other commodity markets like copper and other metals and minerals. Through the first half of the 2000s super-cycle, we used to spend a bunch of time looking at copper, steel, and iron ore for hints on what was going on with China, global oil demand, and broader macro conditions. Like oil, those other areas are plays on global GDP growth and infrastructure expansion, CAPEX if you will. Today, we think we are in the early days of another one of those cycles via the combination of AI & digital transformation, expanding energy access, and growing geopolitical competition when it comes to both industrial reshoring and also military. We see each of those trends contributing to a virtuous GDP cycle. In the five pictures we go through today, we show that AI & tech started the trend, which then spread to power markets and most recently to copper and other metals. We think oil markets will be the next to benefit. Our base case view has been that oil is in a bottoming phase characterized by perhaps modest oversupply in 1H2026 but no oil glut, and that the next upcycle takes hold either later this year or 2027. Either way, now is the time for energy companies to be thinking about where they want to take risk in order to drive shareholder value for the decade ahead.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We are just back from nine days on the road across the western U.S. and British Columbia. A key theme we highlighted at both the Goldman Sachs energy conference in Miami earlier this month and at a CIBC dinner panel last week in Whistler was the need for companies to take risk. Three points we discuss in the video podcast: (1) Why the “take risk” messaging now?: (2) The distinction between large-cap and SMID-cap risk taking; and (3) SMID-cap opportunities.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.2026 kicked off with the dramatic news of the US's incursion into Venezuela and capture of its president Nicolas Maduro. Protests against the ruling regime in Iran have also captured the world's attention. We will aim to put those events into the context of our long-term oil macro view, which of course is our focus at Super-Spiked. As a reminder and as a disclaimer, we look at these events through our lens as an energy equity research analyst and a current partner at Veriten. There is no commentary in this video about specific companies.⚡️On A Personal Note: RIP Bob Weir

Aquiles and Jerry interview Estafan Cortez on he and and Samantha's journey to becoming business owners. Special Guest: Estefan Cortez .

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.Last week's video podcast was a look back on our Big Themes for 2025 that we highlighted in January (here). We did pretty well with the 3 main themes, but not so good on 4 sub-topics we teased. We will aim to be better targeted on what we highlight for 2026. This week we evaluate how we did on our “Top 10 Tactical Calls” that we published in late January (here). We use a “Good Call” or “Bad Call” framework to assess how we did. Spoiler alert: Overall we did well, but were far from perfect. Finally, we do a broader assessment on how we are feeling about major Super-Spiked themes and topic areas after what has now been 4 years of publishing. What are we proud of, what if anything are we not, and what are we thinking looking ahead. We heard from many of you that appreciated that we did a proper assessment of our calls. Someone even said we were a tough self-grader. It baffles us why everyone doesn't take this approach. Companies put out targets or promises, Wall Street analysts make calls and publish outlook reports, academia and policy shops do their own version of opinion making. All those groups, in our humble opinion, would benefit from doing their own self-assessment. People like them! It's popular. It builds credibility and accountability. This will be our final Super-Spiked of 2025. We will return most likely on January 10th. On behalf of everyone associated with Super-Spiked and Veriten, we wish you and your families a Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and a great Holiday Season!!!

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.In this week's video podcast we take a look back at the major themes we highlighted at the start of this year in a written post on January 11, 2025 (here). The 3 major topic areas were (1) energy scenario normalization; (2) power; and (3) how we thought about various energy sources and technologies. We had also teased several sub-themes about crude oil, China, M&A, and US/Canada policy. With nearly a year's hindsight, we did decently well on the three major topic areas, but left a lot to be desired on the four bonus topics. We believe it is always a good idea with those kind of posts to revisit how things played out.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We are coming to you this week from the Middle East. We are in the middle of a great trip that has been put together by the Center on Global Energy Policy, where we are an advisory board member. As of this recording, we have spent time in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, with 2 more stops still to come. We are going to have to keep this video short amidst a packed schedule, so will limit our comments to some quick macro takeaways on (1) oil markets; (2) China's manufacturing dominance; and (3) other energy sources.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck using the blue Download button below.This week we dive into the global macro picture around the power super cycle theme, what we are calling Power Surge! There is a lot of attention especially here in the U.S. about the domestic opportunity set. We share that enthusiasm but view the power super cycle as a global theme as well.Some of the major questions we hope to address either in this video podcast or in future weeks include: Does a power super-cycle imply an acceleration in global GDP growth like we saw 20 years ago with the China/BRICs expansion theme? Will a power super-cycle lift all energy boats or just some? What might be the drivers of different energy sources doing better or worse than expected in the coming decade? And finally what are the best ways for corporates and investors to play the power super-cycle theme? This week we focus on: (1) global trends in power vs oil demand; (2) regional variations in growth. Key messages: (1) the idea that we will have a power super-cycle but plateauing oil demand is non-sensical...both will grow (2) US appears to be joining notable emerging markets as a pro-growth region.

Aquiles and Becka interview Nancy, Eric, and Nathan Benning about working in a multigenerational violin shop. Special Guests: Eric Benning , Nancy Benning , and Nathan Benning .

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We have just wrapped up an especially heavy 3-week stretch of board, management, and industry meetings. Included have been various meetings in and around the power sector. As someone who has spent his career on the other side of energy--i.e., oil & gas--it has been a lot of fun ramping up on the power side of the business. Historically oil & gas and power have been essentially two completely separate industries, each with their own macro drivers, corporate outlooks, and analyst coverage. And while today many differences of course remain, there are a growing number of areas of convergence. In this short video, we will give a few thoughts from our recent travels that we will expand upon in coming months. There are five points we want to highlight:First, we think energy is in the early days of the 3rd major super-cycle in our lifetime. The first was the Arab Oil Embargo years of the 1970s and the second was the Chia/BRICs expansion of the 2000s. Both were at their core crude oil market events. Geopolitical security was the dominant narrative of the 1970s. Billion-person scale emerging market (EM) demand growth characterized the latter. The current super-cycle marries both drivers but it is power, rather than crude oil, that is at the heart of this era. AI datacenters rightfully get a lot of attention. But aging developed market grids that need new investment is also an important trend. Perhaps most importantly, the substantial unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth will arguably be the greatest driver of global power demand. This super-cycle is all about global power needs on multiple fronts. Second point and a key lesson from the mis-guided “The Energy Transition” era is that the world clearly is going to need all forms of energy, including many newer technologies where the timing of scaling economics is still uncertain. Examples of that last point are nuclear SMRs and enhanced geothermal to name just two. Power is an enabling driver of crude oil demand in the developing world. We suspect this is most visible in Africa today as an example. It is interesting and ironic: growth in renewables power is boosting oil demand.Third point: energy sources and technologies are not in competition with each other for a finite pool of demand. That is the energy substitution argument being trotted out by those that in recent years believed in The Energy Transition. Rather, relative economics, reliability, and geopolitical security are going to cause periods of strong and weaker demand at various points of time for different areas. As an example, LNG priced at world oil prices we do not think displaces domestic coal demand in places like India and China. But it is a complementary and diversifying fuel for power generation which is important to having a healthy power market. And new areas like LNG trucks can help reduce dependence on crude oil imports from what would otherwise be the case. Again, it is additive, not substitutive. Fourth, where crude oil cycles are inherently global in nature, power is typically highly local or regional, but today also has a global overlay via EM growth. Fifth, we are perhaps most optimistic to see major energy consumers, in particular Big Tech and Big Industrials, proactively engaging in energy macro and policy discussions. We see this at Veriten via an expanding and increasingly diversified client base. We see it in the many meetings we have attended. This in our view significantly raises the odds that we move away from the divisive rhetoric and policies that characterized The Energy Transition era to one that appropriately prioritizes energy's natural hierarchy of needs.

Brandon Godman interviews David Bromberg about his lifetime of collecting American violins. Special Guest: David Bromberg .

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We are going to go back to the future this week to discuss the seemingly verboten topic of “sustainability.” Believe it or not, it is actually one of the most asked for topics at the various industry, board and management meetings we have spoken at this Fall. It's never the first question and usually comes towards the end when a brave sole that likely works in this area asks “where do you think the topic of sustainability is headed?” As with everything we do, our focus is on how energy companies should think about the topic with a view toward the decade ahead—not today, not just the next 2.5 years, but what will stand the test time and the inevitable pendulum swings from what investors and politicians claim they want.

Becka and Liz talk with Roman Barnas and Lisbeth Butler about education. Special Guests: Lisbeth Butler and Roman Barnas .

A guitarist-composer invents her own sound, a young pianist performs Liszt with power and finesse and an all-star cello quartet rocks Piazzolla.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Liz Perry and Becka Hannigan talk with Alex Wilson of the VMSA and Antoine Nedelec of the CSVM. Special Guests: Alex Wilson and Antoine Nedelec.

Elizabeth Perry talks with Benjamin Hebbert and John Wright about the future of training violin makers in the UK. Special Guests: Benjamin Hebbert and John Wright .

The market keeps changing. Luthiers, shop owners, and resellers are doing their best to stay profitable in a economic uncertainty. What are some practical steps to take? Join Rozie and Brandon as they talk with Daniel Jobe of the CPA firm Friedman, Kannenberg & Co., a group that has been serving the music industry for over 30 years. to discuss the economic landscape and pressures we are currently facing.

We're in the midst of a kind of animation renaissance with the release of shows like PANTHEON, SCAVENGERS REIGN, and COMMON SIDE EFFECTS. Not to mention revivals of hit comedies like KING OF THE HILL and FUTURAMA and irreverent superhero shows like INVINCIBLE and CREATURE COMMANDOS. DJ is joined by Johnny 2 Cellos to discuss what this means for the future of animated shows for adults! Pre-Order DJ's New Comic! https://dangerboi.backerkit.com/hosted_preorders